I'm laying the points with the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. The Seahawks may not own the same pass rush they had a season ago, but they're still 3rd against the pass, 7th in defending the run, and rank 3rd in the league in total yards allowed per game. And while they have lost four games through their first 10, all four of the losses could have ended in the win column with a handful of plays going the other way. Even in last week's loss to KC, the Seahawks gained 25 first downs to 20 for the Chiefs and held the ball for 35 minutes, picking up about 5 yards per play. They simply failed to punch it in from the 1-yard line, the difference in the game. Seattle has certainly had their share of misfortune. Meanwhile, Arizona has been the luckiest team in the NFL, or at least that's what the Pythagorean tells us. I believe the "Good Luck" ends on Sunday, at least for one week. Arizona beat Detroit last weekend, despite gaining just 205 yards over the final 51 minutes of game time. The Cardinals can't run and the defense can't stop the pass. Both problems will surface against a hungry Seattle team that can't afford to slip to 6-5. You can bet Pete Carroll's crew will take their chances on defense against a QB (Drew Stanton) who's just a 53.6% passer on the season. We should note that NFL home teams are on a 33-7 ATS run if they're laying between 3 1/2 and 10 points, hold teams to 70-95 yards rushing per game, and are facing a weak rushing offense, one that runs for that same amount, 70-95 yards per game. And finally, Seattle is 8-0, 100% ATS as home chalk of 7 or less over the last three seasons, winning by an average score of 31-13. I'm laying the points with the Seahawks, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Colts on Sunday night. We played against the New England Patriots and cashed when they lost 41-14 in Kansas City to close out September. Of course, the non-betting sports media immediately said that the end was here for the Patriots and Tom Brady was done. Ignoring non-betting media as we normally do, we backed the Patriots in their very next game and we won when New England crushed Cincinnati. But that win, along with three more against Buffalo, the Jets, and the Bears, don't look that special any longer. Yes, they did punish Denver, no doubt about that. But this one is on the road and and Indy will be in a much better spot than were the Broncos. They're home off a bye (6-1 ATS following a bye week) and have Jacksonville up next. The Colts' own the NFL's #1 ranked offense in total yards, passing yards, and scoring, and while they take a hit about their running game, (again from the non-betting media), the Colts ground game actually ranks 14th in the league. It's going to be the toughest test of the season for New England's middle-of-the-pack defense. The Pats have just two road games under their belt against teams who are currently at least one game over .500, and they didn't fare well. They allowed a combined 74 points to Miami & Kansas City, losing by 13 points and 27 points. Meanwhile, Indy has held their last three guests to a grand total of 30 points, combined. The Colts offense is the better unit in this one and their defense, in this situation, is also in a better spot than the Patriots' defense. And finally, while the Pats have covered just 4 of their last 15 road games, the Colts are on an 18-5 ATS run at home. I'm betting the Colts will continue their strong run at home with a win by margin. I'm laying the points with Indianapolis, my Sunday Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Eagles on Monday night. Dallas kept the pressure on with their 7th win of the season when they whipped Jacksonville on Sunday. I expect Philadelphia to answer with a win of their own. The Eagles will start Mark Sanchez in place of the injured Nick Foles and we have no problem backing the former NY Jet. Sanchez, for most of his time in New York, operated without a top-notch receiving corps, without top-notch skill people in general, and with lackluster leadership from the sideline. He really likes playing for Chip Kelly and it was easy to see why as soon as Sanchez stepped on the field when Foles was injured. Kelly immediately called a deep route to be run by Jeremy Maclin and Sanchez hit #18 downfield for a 52-yard pass play. Sanchez went on to complete 15-of-22 passes with 2 TDs & 2 INTs. Maclin raved about his new QB, simply stating, "Mark can play, man." Maclin has been on-fire of late and LeSean McCoy has been at his best over the last four games. I expect the holes to be even bigger with the return tonight of Pro Bowl guard Evan Mathis. Philly will miss LB DeMeco Ryans (ACL) long-term, but I don't believe he'll be missed against the anemic Carolina offense. The Panthers are off a 28-10 loss to New Orleans, while the Eagles are off the 31-21 win over Houston. Home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points are 40-14 ATS if they scored 30 or more points in their most recent game and the visitor is off a double-digit loss. And the Eagles are on a 28-14 ATS run in the second half of the season when facing weak defenses, those that allow at least 5.65 yards per play. I'm laying the points with the Eagles, my Monday Night Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Extra time off means we expect to see Calvin Johnson on the field for the Lions in this one. Recovering from injury helped integrate Golden Tate into the game plan, making him worth even more to this team moving forward. Tate has 305 yards receiving in the Lions' last two games, combined. Reggie Bush also expects to play and whether he's getting the carries or not, the running game will be more dangerous, helped out by receivers Johnson & Tate keeping defenses honest. Meanwhile, the Lions' defense has been a virtual brick wall in 2014. DC Teryl Austin has his troops playing extremely well, ranked #1 in total yards allowed per game; #2 in run defense; #5 in pass defense; and the Lions are the stingiest team on the scoreboard, allowing just 15.8 ppg. Yes, Miami is sky-high off of last week's 37-0 win over the Chargers, but while they played well, SDG turned the ball over four times. A crazy stat - Miami is 1-14 ATS after a game where they held a turnover margin of +4 or more. They're also just 1-4 ATS the last five times the Dolphins scored more than 30 points. Those stats show us that a lot went as well as possible last weekend for the Dolphins and "perfect storms" don't fall into your lap often in the NFL, let alone in back-to-back weeks. Detroit had a horrible first half last time out before storming back and beating Atlanta. The Lions trailed 21-0 at the half and we expect them to be focused at kickoff in this one. We should note that home teams scoring no more than 3 points in the first half of their previous game are 36-12 ATS against visitors who won by at least 21 points in their most recent game. Matchups and techs line-up on the Lions. I'm laying the points with Detroit, my Non-Conf Smackdown GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night. We may be on the unpopular side here with 65% of the tickets written on the favorite at the time of this post. So far this season we have known when to jump on and off both of these teams. They own similar defenses with both near the bottom of the league in total yards allowed per game and both in the bottom-third in run defense. Both teams will attempt to establish the running game early, however, we should note that Bengals' RB Giovanni Bernard (hip) is listed as doubtful at the time of this post. The Browns have looked bad in just one game this season and that was against Jacksonville. Cleveland was off a huge win over Pittsburgh, which followed a string of four games each decided by 3 or fewer points. And as we said on our Las Vegas ESPN radio show, we expected the Browns, finally favored to beat someone by margin, to falter against the Jags; it was certainly no shocker to us. With both of tonight's teams likely using a similar approach, I'd rather take the points with Brian Hoyer than lay a TD with Andy Dalton who brings a weak 8-6, TD-INT mark into the contest. Dalton has thrown five interceptions in his last four games and he has 7 INTs to go with 9 TDs in his last four games against the Browns, certainly not dominant numbers. Yes, we do know about Cincinnati's home success, but I feel their highly publicized results have been baked into tonight's line. The underdog has been the way to go in this series, going 11-2-1 ATS, and Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five. Finally, under HC Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 2-11 ATS at home against teams that average at least 7.5 yards per pass. They have allowed 26 ppg in those 13 home outings. I'm grabbing the points with the Browns, my Thursday night Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. The Ravens thumped Pittsburgh 26-6 early in the season and they'll aim to make is 6-2 SU in their last eight meetings with their divisional rival. The Ravens' defense will face a Pittsburgh offense that has put up big numbers of late. We had the Steelers last weekend when Big Ben completed 40-of-49 passes for 522 yards and 6 TDs. But the Ravens have had the Steelers' number, holding Pittsburgh to an average of 15.4 ppg in their last 12 regular season meetings. No Jimmy Smith this week, but I expect the Baltimore defense to "man-up" and keep the Pittsburgh offense in-check again. I also expect big things from the Baltimore offense. The o-line has protected Joe Flacco quite well this season and the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 9.35 yards per pass attempt over their last three games. Flacco and his receivers ought to be champing at the bit. Baltimore is off a loss, dropping one to the Bengals last time out, but they're 22-5 SU in their last 27 following a loss, with the 22 wins coming by an average margin of 11 ppg. We should note that during this time of season (November) NFL road teams are on a 70-26 ATS run if they lost on the road the previous week. Meanwhile, teams (Pittsburgh) off a SU win as a home dog the previous week have covered just 9 of their last 40 against teams with a winning record. And finally, Baltimore has covered 12 of 16 under Harbaugh against teams that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry, out-scoring those 16 teams by an average of 29-18! The Ravens own a huge point-differential advantage over Pittsburgh and I'm betting they'll make is 6 wins in the last 8 meetings. I'm backing the Baltimore Ravens, my Smackdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday. The Patriots have been on fire since the "end of the dynasty" loss to Kansas City, winning four straight games, while covering three. But three of those wins came against badly struggling football teams, while the fourth, the win over Cincinnati was a terrific spot on New England, and in fact, we backed the Patriots in that one. They'll now have to dial it up against the best team they will have faced so far this season. Denver comes to town as the top team in any credible power rating poll. The Broncos are healthy and have more weapons on offense this season than they did a year ago when they knocked-off the Patriots 26-16 in the playoffs. Peyton Manning lit-up the Patriots' defense, connecting on 32-of-43 passes for 400 yards and a pair of TDs. As a team, Denver rolled-up over 500 yards of offense in the win. I expect another big performance from Manning and his targets in this one. Meanwhile, the Patriots' offense will be hard-pressed to continue their fluid ways in this one. Denver brings in the league's top-ranked run defense and the 4th ranked defense overall in total yards allowed per game. While the Broncos average 32 ppg (#1 in the NFL) I don't believe the Pats will be able to "keep up" against the stingy Denver stop unit. We should note that Denver is the only team in the NFL to have two players with at least seven sacks on the season and Von Miller & DeMarcus Ware should make things tough on the New England passing game. Denver enters on a 20-7 ATS run after the first month of the season over the last three years, out-scoring their opponents by an average of 34-21. And they're on a 4-0 SU/ATS run, overall. I'm laying the points with the Broncos, my Tapout GOM on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Jets on Sunday. We're not here to tell you the NY Jets are a better football team than the KC Chiefs. But the "almighty point-spread" comes into play and bad teams have done very well in situations like the one we have in this contest. The Jets have lost seven straight games. Road teams that have lost at least seven straight games are 50-22 ATS after the first month of the season. In fact, these teams (in November) are 30-8 ATS if they're off at least six straight losses. The reasons for their ATS success is pretty obvious with their struggles inflating their point-spreads. Kansas City has strung together six straight impressive outings, winning four of those games with the only losses coming in hard-fought battles with Denver and San Francisco. It would not be a reach to say the Chiefs may be a little drained facing a team that's certainly easy to take for granted. And we also note that the Chiefs have been over-valued at home as it is, entering Sunday on a 2-6 ATS slide at Arrowhead Stadium. I'm taking the points with the NY Jets, my Road Warrior on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Washington Redskins on Monday night. Dallas RB DeMarco Murray is off to a record-setting start in 2014. Tony Romo is staying away from critical errors. But the fantastic offensive line has been masking defensive issues. The Dallas defense is still one of the worst in the league when it comes to yards allowed per play (6.1) and yards rushing per attempt (approaching 5.0). They continue to dominate time of possession thanks to a front line that paves the way week-after-week. But I expect Washington to be able to play a little "keep-away" themselves tonight. No matter who is at QB, the Skins have Alfred Morris in the backfield and he has averaged over 120 yards rushing with 6 TDs in Washington's last four games against Dallas. Washington owns the NFL's 7th stingiest defense in total yards allowed per game, including 7th against the pass and 11th against the run. In fact, their yards per play numbers are better than the Cowboys', but Washington has not been able to stay away from turnovers. HC Jay Gruden has not named a starter at QB yet, but it's likely Colt McCoy will get the nod. McCoy replaced Kirk Cousins last week and completed 11-of-12 passes with 1 TD. Most importantly, he didn't commit any turnovers. Now, the running game ought to improve and when that happens, the passing game falls into place, also. The Skins enter this one on a 7-1 ATS run against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Dallas has covered just 8 of their last 28 against teams with a losing record and 7 of 23 as home chalk under HC Jason Garrett, (1-1 TY). I'm grabbing the big points with Washington, my Monday Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the short points with the Saints on Sunday night. The Packers head into this one at 5-2, while the Saints have won just 2 of their first 6 games. However, these teams are just a few plays away from much different records. New Orleans lost by three in OT to Atlanta after leading by 13 points twice in the game. They also lost by two points at Cleveland when the Browns made a game-winning FG with 3-seconds left on the clock. And then there was last week's loss to Detroit. We had the Saints in that game, our top play of the week and covered the spread. But New Orleans held a 13-point lead with under 4 minutes to go in the game, before collapsing and losing, 24-23, covering the number. All three of the heartbreaking losses came on the road and this team is that close to owning a 5-1 record. New Orleans' track record at home under Sean Payton has been phenomenal. They're also 10-0 SU in their last 10 home games with Drew Brees at QB and the signal caller posted a rating of nearly 118 in those games. The Saints attack will take on a Green Bay defense that has injury issues in the secondary with Sam Shields listed as doubtful and safety Morgan Bennett listed as questionable. New Orleans has some bumps and bruises of their own, including at RB, but I expect Mark Ingram and Travaris Cadet to get the job done, picking up the slack against a Green Bay run defense that ranks 31st in the league, allowing 147.9 yards rushing per game. And with the secondary banged-up, Brees should be able to pick his spots if and when the DBs move up to help against the run or in coverage out of the backfield. We also expect no drop-off to Tim Lelito, who will start at center. Lelito has seen a decent amount of playing time and competed right to the wire for the starting job. The Saints' defense has under-performed at times this season, but face an over-valued offense. The Packers rank 25th in total yards, including 20th through the air, and 23rd on the ground. If not for a few key turnovers bouncing their way, the Packers could very well be entering this game at 3-4 rather than 5-2. Green Bay is on a 0-5 ATS slide against teams with a losing record, quite often over-valued. Meanwhile, the Saints are 11-2 ATS under Payton against teams that average at least 27 ppg. New Orleans averaged 35 ppg in those 13 contests, while allowing just 24. And in their last 25 home games off a road loss, the Saints have out-scored their opponents by an average of 31-19. Finally, the Saints are on a 16-5 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm laying the points with the Saints, my Smackdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the KC Chiefs as we back them for the second straight week and third time in their last four games (all covers thus far). The Rams pulled out all stops last weekend in their win over Seattle. Much credit to special teams coach John Fassel for designing the two trick plays and to HC Jeff Fisher for "signing-off" on them. But the rabbit is out of the hat and no team will be caught by surprise from this point on. KC has displayed great effort, desire, and game planning after the opening week ugly loss to Tennessee. The Chiefs have endured one of the toughest schedules in the NFL thus far and have faced some of the best yards per play defenses in the league. This week, the level of competition drops a notch or two and I believe Andy Reid will keep his team focused with the chance to move above .500 for the first time this season. Austin Davis has played well for the Rams as he has entrenched himself as the starting signal caller. But Davis will face a top-shelf pass rush on Sunday. The Chiefs are one of the best in the NFL at pressuring and getting to the QB. I expect the stout pass rush to ensnare the Rams' passing game and I won't be surprised if the young QB makes a couple of costly mistakes under the heat he's likely going to feel. Offensively, the Chiefs have turned the ball over just once in their last three games. They're on a 3-1 run in their last four and just six points away from a 4-game winning streak. Let's also not forget how well they played in a 24-17 loss in Denver in week-2. At 3-3 on the season, KC has three very winnable games in front of them starting this week, they just need to remain focused. Andy Reid is the man for that job and I believe the Chiefs will stay on target. The Rams won last week's game against Seattle, despite allowing 463 yards and getting out-gained by nearly 200 yards. I make that note because St. Louis is on a 0-6 ATS slide after allowing at least 350 yards. The Rams are also on a 4-14 ATS slide against teams that complete at least 64% of their passes, getting out-scored in those 18 games by an average of 34-14. I'm laying the points with the KC Chiefs, my Knockout on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chicago Bears on Sunday. We have been on target in games involving the New England Patriots as much as any team in the league in 2014. We went against them and cashed with KC in a blowout. We played on New England the very next week and cashed when they crushed the Bengals, and we went against the Pats last week and we covered again with the NY Jets. I believe, much like in two of those three games mentioned, the Patriots are a tad over-valued in this one. The public has heard nothing but negatives regarding Jay Cutler and his teammates this week. But this is a spot I expect Cutler and the receiving corps to step-up. The Bears have the tools to be one of the top passing teams in the league, they just have to find their chemistry. New England's overrated pass defense may be "just what the doctor ordered." The Patriots own the stingiest pass defense in the league on paper. But they have faced some of the worst passing games in the league. Check out the list: Miami (22nd); Minnesota (32nd); Oakland (26th); Kansas City (30th); NY Jets (30th). Only the Bengals & Bills rank in the top-20 in passing and they're just 16th and 19th, respectively. Chicago's passing game is top-10 in the NFL and the Bears will also be facing a run defense that ranks in the bottom-third in the league. The Bears normally bounce back well off an ugly offensive performance, entering week-8 on a 6-1 ATS run after gaining less than 250 yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Pats are on a 1-5 ATS slide against losing teams. I'm grabbing the points with the Bears, my Sunday Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Thursday night. San Diego's defense gave Denver's offense about as much trouble as any team did a year ago and I believe they'll do so again tonight. The Chargers covered two of the three matchups, coming just one point short of the spread sweep. This season, the Bolts are 3rd in the league defending the pass and Denver is obviously coming off a big win over the 49ers that included Peyton Manning's big night, becoming the all-time leader in passing TDs. But his offense doesn't run the ball well, ranked 25th in the league in that category and the Chargers' defense is 5th in the league, overall. SDG isn't the greatest at running the ball either, but Philip Rivers is having a big season and Denver's pass defense is allowing a mediocre 242.5 yards passing per contest. I'm betting the Chargers will hang the big number. They're a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record and they're 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 games in Denver. I'm grabbing the points with the Chargers, my Thursday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Houston on Monday night. Changes are likely in store for the Pittsburgh Steelers in the next off-season. While Mike Tomlin should be back next season, barring a meltdown, their may be a different coordinator or two. Todd Haley has not been able to satisfy the Steeler masses since his arrival, taking over for the highly successful Bruce Arians who left to take the HC job in Arizona a couple years ago. The offense ranks 2nd to last in the league in the red-zone and Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 11 times in his last three games. While Houston's defense has given up some yardage, JJ Watt and company have to be champing at the bit to get their shots at Big Ben. Houston needs a win off back-to-back losses, while the Steelers are 3-3 SU against a rather soft slate of opponents, yet continue to be over-valued, as far as I'm concerned. Let's not forget that Pittsburgh has covered just 7 of their last 22 as a favorite of at least 3 points. I expect an upset tonight, but my play is to take the points. Houston, plus the points, my Monday night Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the KC Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. I went against the Chargers last week and we cashed with the Raiders. SDG has played well this season, but I'm not sure they are quite as good as their record indicates. The Chargers' last four wins came against the Bills (with EJ Manuel), Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders. Not exactly a murderer's row of opposition. Today, the Chargers will face one of the toughest pass defenses they will see all season and I believe SDG will struggle. The "Bolts" don't run the ball well (25th) and if KC slows the aerial game, there's not a lot the Chargers will be able to do on a consistent basis. Meanwhile, KC can frustrate defenses with their own ground attack, which ranks 4th in the NFL. QB Alex Smith had a clunker in week-1 with the rest of his team, but since then, Smith has 7 TD passes and just 1 INT; he rarely makes a costly mistake. KC enters on a 9-3 ATS run on the road and Andy Reid-coached teams are 44-24 ATS as a road underdog. I'm grabbing the points with the Chiefs, my AFC West Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Seattle on Sunday. We saw a sluggish effort come back to haunt the defending champions last week and cost them a game against Dallas. We also saw there's no messing around with this team's incredible attitude. Percy Harvin felt the wrath by getting shipped off to the Jets. Many near the situation said Harvin did not get along with others in the locker-room and was a distraction. He isn't any longer. After what happened last week, I expect Pete Carroll to have his troops focused on getting back on track and in a big way. The Rams are normally "game" under HC Jeff Fisher, but they don't have the tools and in many key instances, the fundamentals just aren't in place. St. Louis ranks 24th in scoring and 30th in points allowed, giving up 30 ppg. Today, I suspect the Rams' 26th-ranked run defense is going to see a steady diet of "Beast Mode" out of the Seahawk backfield. Once Marshawn Lynch sets the tone Russell Wilson gets to take his shots and he has to be champing at the bit after last week's results. The Seahawks are 20-7 ATS against the NFC and they're on a 4-0, 100% ATS run off a SU loss. Meanwhile, the Rams have dropped four straight divisional games ATS and they have scored a grand total of 31 points in their last three games against the Seahawks. Seattle is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings and I'm backing them here. I'm laying the points with the Seahawks on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Lions have no offense and while the defense has posted strong numbers, some of the best in the league, when you take a look at the schedule, perspective falls into place. The Lions have faced the offenses of the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, and Minnesota Vikings. Those offenses are ranked 24th, 18th, 27th, 26th, 25th, and 28th, respectively. We could make an argument that the last three teams on the list don't currently own a true NFL-level starting QB. That's going to change on Sunday when the New Orleans Saints roll into Motor City. The Drew Brees-led offense ranks 2nd in the NFL in total yards per game and they have had a week off to fine tune things, lessening the impact of Jimmy Graham's status (doubtful). I also don't believe the Lions will be able to "keep up" when they have possession of the football. Detroit should have Reggie Bush back on the field this week, but more importantly, Calvin Johnson is doubtful. Even if "Megatron" plays, he's much less than 100% healthy. I expect a decent-sized win for the visiting Saints, despite the fact they're winless on the road this season. We should also point out that the losses to Cleveland and Dallas don't look as bad now as they did when they took place. But the Saints also know they have to bring complete focus and can't afford a loss following the bye. New Orleans enters on a 4-0 ATS run against Detroit and we'll back them here. I believe we have serious advantages on both sides of the football. I'm taking the points with the Saints, my NFL Smackdown GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Jets on Thursday night. Just a couple of weeks ago, almost every non-bettor was writing off the New England Patriots, following the beatdown they took at the hands of the KC Chiefs. We jumped on New England on these pages in their very next game and we were rewarded with a blowout win over Cincinnati. Now, two wins later, the Patriots are back to being over-valued. QB Tom Brady and the Pats' offense have utilized a game plan that's about as basic as it gets the last two games. But Brady is a little banged up (ankle) and his team is favored by 9 1/2 to 10 points. Yes, the Jets have been bad at times this season, and yes, they have lost by a wide margin the last two games, however, the 14-point loss to Denver was misleading thanks to Geno Smith's last-minute pick-6. There's no doubt this will be the biggest game of the season for Rex Ryan and the NY Jets. There's now doubt the Jets will "bring it" to try and get to Brady, who is said to be nursing that ankle. We should also note that RB Stevan Ridley (knee) and LB Jerod Mayo (knee) have both been lost for the season. And finally, NFL teams are 34-10 ATS if they have a win percentage of .250 or less and have lost their last five games by at least 42 points combined. The public normally abandons these teams, jump on the other side and pay a premium. Instead, we'll grab those points with the NY Jets, our Thursday night Blockbuster! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. This is a solid situation for the Raiders and the Charger bandwagon couldn't be any more packed than it already is. SDG caught a break last weekend playing a NY Jets' team that was dealing with serious clubhouse trouble stemming from a few players being late to a team meeting the night before the game, including starting QB Geno Smith. But this is not an easy spot for SDG to have complete focus with Kansas City on deck and a road game in Denver afterwards. Oakland, meanwhile, sent Dennis Allen packing and named former Dolphins HC Tony Sporano as interim coach. Sporano has the backing of the troops and I expect a spirited effort and a refreshed approach on Sunday and knocking off one off the media-darlings would certainly heal some wounds. I do believe Oakland's defense can find success in this one. Let's not forget how dismal the SDG running game has been, ranking 27th in the league. With a week off to prepare following the London debacle, we believe the Oakland Raiders will give the Chargers all they can handle. NFL underdogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 29-10 ATS run, provided they scored 14 of fewer points in each of their previous two games. Obviously, these teams are undervalued after playing poorly in front of the public eye. The Raiders are actually on an 8-3 ATS run off a spread loss and the underdog in this series is on a 9-1 ATS run. Solid spot for the home dog and I'm taking the points with Oakland, my Sunday Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Tough spot for the Packers who are off back-to-back divisional wins and three straight games within the NFC North, overall. After losing to Detroit, Green Bay knocked-off Chicago, despite getting out-gained 496-358. In fact, the Packers' final 17 points came on drives of 35, 35, and 11 yards. Then, after beating a mistake-prone Chicago team, the Pack caught Minnesota at the perfect time with Teddy Bridgewater injured and 3rd-string QB Christian Ponder forced to start behind center. Miami will now be the team in the prime spot and will face a Packer squad that hasn't been able to run (25th) or stop the run (32nd). Miami does both pretty well, especially on offense where they rank 4th in the league running the football. Dolphins' RB Knowshon Moreno is expected to be back and I believe the running game will be a difference maker even if he's on the sideline. Add in the scheduling advantage for Miami, off a bye week, while Green Bay is in the tough spot mentioned above and the Dolphins are in prime position to garner a home win. Miami enters on a 10-4 ATS run at home, including a 6-0 ATS record as a home underdog under HC Philbin. I'm grabbing the points with the Dolphins, my Blockbuster on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore couldn't get the offense in gear against the Colts last weekend, thanks in part to 3 turnovers. They finished the 20-13 loss out-gained by more than 100 yards, but that's been a buy sign under John Harbaugh. The Ravens usually turn a bad week around rather quickly, going 14-4 ATS after getting out-gained by at least 100 yards during the Harbaugh-era. They've averaged 25 ppg, while allowing just 15 ppg in those 18 contests. Baltimore will face a less than imposing Tampa Bay defense that ranks 30th in both yards passing allowed per game and total yards allowed per game. They're also just 18th against the run and allow a whopping 31.2 ppg, including 39 ppg the last three weeks. Yes, the Buccs offense has shown better under QB Mike Glennon than it did with Josh McCown behind center. But facing the Ravens' defense is a notch or two tougher than the Saints' unit they faced last week. And dig deeper than last week's final score and you'll see the Buccs only gained 314 yards...out-gained by 197 yards! Tampa Bay scored 10 points off of 19 and 40 yard drives and scored another TD off a pick-6. I suspect the Buccaneers will be unable to run the football and if that's the case, Glennon could be in for some trouble. Besides the 14-4 ATS spot mentioned above, Tampa Bay is just 13-31-1 ATS in their last 45 home games, including a 1-5-1 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm laying the points with the Ravens, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. The Steelers were dominating the Cleveland Browns in week-1, leading 27-3 at halftime. But the Browns gave us a preview of things to come, clawing their way back in the game, before Pittsburgh finally wrapped things up with a 30-27 win. The Steelers out-gained Cleveland 503-389 and averaged 7.5 yards per play. This time, I expect Pittsburgh to grab the lead and not let off the gas. We went against the Steelers a couple weeks ago and cashed when they blew a lead against Tampa Bay. Last week, the Steelers were able to sneak out a cover in a 17-9 win over Jacksonville. But again, it was a lackluster performance, looking a bit hungover from the ugly loss to the Buccaneers. Nothing like a game against a division rival to get your focus back and that's what we have in this one. The Steelers (3-2) can't afford to lose ground in the AFC North with Cincy at 3-1 and Baltimore at 3-2, and I'm betting they won't. The Browns defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially on the ground. There are just four NFL teams that allow at least 5 yards per carry and Cleveland is one. I expect Pittsburgh to send a steady diet of Le'Veon Bell right at the soft stop unit. When Bell plows the road, Big Ben can go to work. Roethlisberger has completed 69% of his passes this season with a 7:2 TD:INT ratio. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL in total yards per game, equally effective on the ground and through the air (8th in both). And unlike Cleveland, the Steelers play some defense. NFL teams (and in this case Pittsburgh) are 59-28 ATS when they hold teams to an average of 295-335 yards per game, provided their opponent owns bad defensive numbers, those allowing at least 370 yards per game. Pittsburgh is on a 9-4 ATS run, overall, and they're on a 5-1 ATS run on the road. No revenge here. I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers, my Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Houston Texans on Thursday night. The Colts head into this one on a 3-0 SU/ATS run, all but erasing their 0-2 start. However, two of the three wins came against Jacksonville and Tennessee. We should also note that if you take the Jaguars off the schedule, the Colts are 7-10 SU (8-9 ATS) on the road during the Andrew Luck-era. Luck threw a pair of INTs last week in the win over Baltimore and will now face the league's best defense when it comes to takeaways. The Houston Texans have 12 takeaways and they have been stingy when it comes to points allowed, ranking 4th best in the NFL. Texans' QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has had his turnover issues of late, but he's been tremendous against the Colts, throwing 4 TD passes with no INTs in his last two home starts against them. We also expect to see Arian Foster back tonight. While he's not needed for this to be a play, if he does go, we'll gladly take him. Foster has also thrived against the Colts. There's no denying the Colts have owned the division of late, but they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight against teams with a winning home record. And NFL teams are on a 26-7 ATS run with a +3/-3 line range against teams that have held onto the football for at least 34 minutes of game time and accrued at least 24 first downs in each of their last two games (Indy). NFL teams in general, don't usually dominate the opposition for four, five, six weeks at a time. And finally, the home team in this series has covered seven of the last eight. I'm grabbing the points with the Texans, my Thursday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night. Pete Carroll is a player's coach, no breaking news there. But if you need more evidence, Carroll gave his team the first week off during their bye week, stating he wants to get the guys as fresh as possible moving forward. Tonight, his defense, getting healthier by the week, will be a tough match for the Redskins' offense, especially Kirk Cousins. Washington is banged-up on the offensive line, yet understand they have to run the ball in order to hang with Seattle. I will be shocked if Cousins and his receiving corps can move the ball consistently through the air against the Seahawks' secondary. Seattle heads into this one on a 10-1 ATS run against teams that average at least 7 yards per pass attempt. Washington averages 123 yards rushing per game...middle of the pack in the NFL. The thing is, Seattle owns the 2nd best running game in the league, averaging 148 yards per contest. And NFL teams that average 125 to 150 yards rushing per game are 54-26 ATS against those that average 95 to 124 yards. A ground game still matters in the NFL. I expect the Seattle offense to be able to pull away from the Skins, a team allowing 27.2 ppg. Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 7-0 ATS when facing teams that allow at least 27 ppg. Seattle won those games by an average score of 32-15. Finally, they're on a 28-12 ATS run in their last 40 games, overall. I'm laying the points with the Seahawks, my Monday Night Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the New England Patriots on Sunday night. It's virtually a season defining moment for New England and we aren't yet ready to give up on the Belichick-Brady combo. We went against the Pats on Monday night and cashed the easy winner on KC. But since that game went final, we have heard that New England is done...that Tom Brady is finally getting old. We have also heard that the Bengals are the front-runner to meet Denver in the AFC championship game. But I'm going against all the hype. Before Monday's game kicked-off, the Pats were a 3-point home favorite for tonight's contest. When the Chiefs blew them off the field, the Bengals became the chalk. October has been Marvin Lewis' wont, however. His Bengals have covered just 16 of 42 October games, struggling in the meat of the season. And let's not forget the Patriots are still on a 10-0 SU run at home, covering 7 of their last 9. While KC gashed them on the ground, the Pats' defense ranks 1st against the pass and 4th overall. And under Belichick, they're 17-6 ATS off a double-digit loss. Cincy brings an exciting offense to Boston, no doubt about it. But the Patriots have out-scored teams that average at least 375 yards per game, by an average of 27-22 the last 41 times (27-14 ATS). Again, I went against the Pats on Monday, but I'm back on them, my Sunday Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday, my NFL Smackdown. Both teams are off bye weeks and Denver should enter this one as healthy as they have been all season. The Broncos expect to get LB Danny Trevathan back on the field after missing time with a leg injury. The defense will face the league's 23rd ranked offense and should hold Drew Stanton in-check. Give Arizona HC Bruce Arians a lot of credit for keeping this team on track with Carson Palmer sidelined, but Stanton will be forced to make plays against a defense like Denver's, rather than just staying away from trouble. Peyton Manning will have his full arsenal of weapons as healthy as they have been this season and after struggling, really since the third quarter of the season opener, I expect the offense to be in attack more from start to finish after the week off. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS the last three seasons after rushing for 75 yards or less, winning by an average score of 37-17. And they're on a 13-4 ATS run against defenses that allow at least 235 yards passing per game, out-scoring the 17 opponents by an average of 33-20. Arizona allows almost 245 yards passing per game. I'm laying the points with the Denver Broncos, my NFL Smackdown! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills, my Sunday Shocker. The Bills have decent offensive weaponry with the exception of the most important position, quarterback. But they made a potentially dramatic improvement this week by benching E.J. Manuel for Kyle Orton. The 10-year veteran may not be the answer long-term for the Bills, but he brings stability and management to the Buffalo offense. This isn't an easy spot for the Lions. They're off a pair of tough wins and have a date with division rival Minnesota up next. Also, while Calvin Johnson is supposed to play, he is not expected to be at 100% as of yet. And while the Lions' defense could have fooled E.J. Manuel, it'll be a little tougher disguising packages against Orton. The Bills enter on a 10-1 ATS run off a road loss over the last three seasons, normally under-valued coming in off a defeat. I believe that's the case again and I'm grabbing the points with the Bills, my Knockout Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. If there's a sandwich situation in the NFL, this would be the poster game for it. The NY Giants are the toast of the town right now as the offense has begun to figure out the new game plan brought in by OC Ben McAdoo. But after going from the laughing stock to a media favorite in the NFC East in a matter of three weeks, the Giants are now slightly over-valued in my opinion. They're also in a horrible scheduling situation. The Giants are off the win over NFC East rival Washington, and have divisional road games against Philadelphia and Dallas coming up the next two weeks. Atlanta certainly has the offense to make the Giants pay. The Falcons scored 93 points combined in wins over New Orleans and Tampa Bay, with their only losses coming against Cincinnati and Minnesota. We expected both losses, going against Atlanta in each defeat. But we're back on them this week and while I'm taking the points, I won't be shocked if they win outright. The Falcons have done a great job of bouncing back off of bad losses under HC Mike Smith, currently 14-3 ATS off a double digit defeat. Meanwhile, under HC Tom Coughlin, the Giants have covered just 6 of their last 25 at home after holding their previous opponent to 14 points or less. I'm grabbing the points with the Falcons, my Situational Beatdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the KC Chiefs on Monday night. After a poor performance in their season opener against Tennessee, Kansas City has played much better football the last two weeks and now return home for the first time since the loss to the Titans. KC has displayed ball control the last two weeks, garnering 51 first downs against Denver and Miami, combined, while the defense held those teams to 19 and 18, respectively. The Chiefs even out-gained Denver by 55 yards, but blew a couple of chances for a possible outright win in Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Last week, Andy Reid had his team in full focus and they whipped the Dolphins in Miami. The Chiefs, going back to last season, had their success when getting to the opposing QB. They're 4th in the NFL in sacks going into week-4 and LB's Tamba Hali & Justin Houston have been giving the opposition fits. New England has had their issues up front, allowing Tom Brady to be sacked 7 times in 3 games. The Patriot offense ranks 29th in total yards per game, second to last in passing, and 22nd on the ground. Until the offensive line issues are resolved, which included sending Logan Mankins packing and the retirement of offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia in the off-season, it's hard to imagine the Patriot offense doing a lot of damage. Kansas City expects to have Jamal Charles in uniform tonight, listed as probable. And the dink-and-dunk passing game should be able to move the ball in a consistent manner. Also, after throwing 3 INTs in week-1, QB Alex Smith has not thrown a single pick in his last two games. This marks just the second time KC has been a home underdog under HC Andy Reid and New England has not been too hot on the road, covering just 2 of their last 9. I'm grabbing the points with the Chiefs, my Monday night Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Titans on Sunday afternoon. Tennessee is off back-to-back losses, which gives us some added value in this one. Combine the losses with big-name QB Andrew Luck playing for the opponent and it explains why 70% of the ATS tickets have been written on the Colts at the time of this release. Obviously, the Colts have an advantage at QB. But break it down position-by-position, and the Titans hold their own. I'm not crazy about the Colts' offensive line blocking and I do believe the Titans can give them a boat load of problems for four quarters. I also believe that Tennessee's strong receiving corps will get their chances with matchup advantages over Indy's DBs. I'm taking the points with the Titans, my Dog Pound release on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buccaneers on Sunday. Yes, we know how poorly this team has looked through the first three weeks of the season, but the line has now caught up. Tampa Bay got slaughtered last Thursday and it was the "only game in town," which means everyone saw it. Same goes for Pittsburgh's impressive win over Carolina, which was played in primetime last Sunday night. The Steelers played their best game of the season. Combine the two situations and we get some extra value on the team that looked lousy. That also explains why about 70% of the tickets written on this game (at the time of this release) have been on the favored Steelers. Buccs' QB Josh McCown injured his thumb last week and he's out. But that's of no concern with Mike Glennon stepping in. McCown was not playing well to start the season. Meanwhile, the Steelers are a little banged-up on the defensive side of the football and could be in for a little bit of a letdown after playing division rivals Cleveland & Baltimore the first two weeks, then taking on Carolina in primetime Sunday night action last week. We should note that the Steelers have covered just 5 of their last 19 against teams that get out-scored by at least 6 ppg. They're also 9-18 ATS under Mike Tomlin off a win by at least 14 points. It all plays into going against or at least staying away from teams that looked like "world beaters" the previous week. In this case, we'll go against them. I'm taking the points with the Buccaneers on Sunday, my Sunday Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the short points with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. After losing a tough opener to the Buffalo Bills, the Chicago Bears have won two straight, but have done so with a lot of good fortune at opportune times. The Bears have been out-gained by a combined 300 yards the last two weeks. The Bears averaged 4.2 yards per play in the win over SFO and 4.1 yards this past week in the win over the NY Jets. Meanwhile, the defense allowed 5.5 to the 49ers and 5.8 to the Jets. I believe the luck-factor catches up with the Bears on Sunday. This is a defining game for a Packers' team that expects to vie for the NFC title this season, but have yet to truly put four quarters together. We do give some credit where it's due, though, and the defense hasn't played badly. In fact, last week, Detroit had just one scoring drive, ending in a FG through the first three quarters of the game. And as we already mentioned, they'll face a Bears' offense that's not exactly lighting things up. There's little home field advantage for the Bears, who're 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games at Soldier Field, and the Packers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 visits to the Windy City. Chicago is also just 1-8 ATS in their last nine division contests. I'm backing the Green Bay Packers, my Smackdown release on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Broncos on Sunday. This marks just the second time in 33 games that Denver has entered a game as an underdog, which shows us just how much folks remember their Super Bowl debacle. But this is a different team than the one that suffered a meltdown in the 43-8 loss. Denver has shored-up some of their defensive problems with big-name acquisitions in the off-season. And those new faces, including Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward in the secondary, make this defense much more formidable than the one Russell Wilson and company faced in February. They're also better up front on the offensive line which should give Peyton Manning more time to go through his progressions on Sunday. The Seahawks are off the loss last week in abnormally hot SDG, where the on-field temperature at times reached 120-degrees. But more importantly, the Chargers showed the blueprint to beating Seattle. Attack the entire field. Be aware of Richard Sherman, but don't be scared of him. I suspect Denver will spread the field in this one and make the Seahawks cover like they were forced to in week-2, rather than the frightened attack they faced in week-1 against Green Bay. Denver is a better team on both sides of the line of scrimmage than they were when these teams met in the Super Bowl and I expect a different outcome. Denver's covered four of their last five on the road and I'm grabbing the points with them in this one. I had Seattle in the Super Bowl, but I'm on Denver, plus the points, my Sunday KO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Is anytime getting more praise right now than the Cincinnati Bengals? Cincy has become just about every media member's team to represent the AFC. We had the Bengals in week-1, but feel they're in for a tough outing in this one. Tennessee's 3-4 defense is getting to opposing QBs better than any other NFL team through two weeks of action. While Andy Dalton enjoyed picking-apart the Atlanta pass-rush last week, the blitz-package DC Ray Horton brings is a tougher nut to crack. The Titans' offense will face a Cincy defense with some issues this week. The Bengals' depth is banged-up on the defensive line and Vontaze Burfict, arguably the "QB" of the Cincy defense is not expected to play as of late Saturday night. And we should note the Bengals rank just 27th against the pass and 24th overall, getting out-gained in their week-1 win over Baltimore. Yes, this is a very good team, but I believe they're in a tough spot in week-3. Tennessee is on a 6-2-1 ATS road run and I'm grabbing the points with the Titans, my Dog Pound week-3 release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Buffalo Bills. San Diego is in a tough spot coming off the emotional and physical win over the defending Super Bowl champs last weekend. The win over Seattle following the hard-fought 18-17 heart-breaker to Arizona in week-1 MNF may have this team a little shy of peak level. It's tough to stay at your best after games like that. And in a game where you need a healthy 2-deep, the Chargers are a little banged-up in the trenches. They also don't have RB Ryan Mathews, who is out with a knee injury. While Buffalo is doing whatever it takes to win games through the first two weeks of the season, the fact is, they have been covering at home for a while, entering this one on an 8-2 ATS run at home. With the quick chemistry developed between EJ Manual, Sammy Watkins, and the Bills running game, I expect another solid game and win on Sunday. I'm laying the points with the Bills, my Main Event GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Eagles on Monday night. We got back-doored by the Colts in week-1. Denver was comfortably ahead of Indy 24-0 late in the first half and went to sleep, allowing the Colts back in the game and later to cut a 31-10 Denver lead to the final margin of 31-24. The Colts struggled badly when Peyton Manning went to his TEs, namely Julius Thomas, and I believe they're in trouble when Philly QB Nick Foles goes to Brent Celek and Zach Ertz. The Eagles should find even more success when Foles throws his quick play-action hitters over the middle to Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin. It's a staple to the fast-paced Eagle offense and it's extremely tough to defend, especially with the new focus by officials to penalize defenders who put their hands on receivers early in their routes. Indianapolis was unable to generate much of a pass-rush last week and with Robert Mathis not playing this season, that problem becomes even more of a concern against an offense like the Eagles. Philadelphia did suffer a couple of injuries up front on offense in week-1, but do get one lineman back this week. Speaking of banged-up offensive lines, the Colts have some issues up front themselves. They are also without a consistent running game, putting the onus of the offense on QB Andrew Luck. We'll hear a lot on Monday about the Colts attempting to avoid a 0-2 start. But we should note that home teams off a September loss have covered just 51 of the last 142 times when the line is in the -3/+3 range. The Eagles are 9-2 SU with Foles starting at QB and we'll back them on Monday. I'm taking the points with Philadelphia, my MNF Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bears on Sunday night. We got part-1 of what we wanted last Sunday when SFO jumped out to a big early lead and closed with a 28-17 spread-covering win in Dallas. We were hoping SFO would win impressively, then come back the very next week and play against a very public 49er team. When most spoke about the 49ers week-1 victory, few mentioned the offense simply took advantage of Dallas mistakes. Few stated that once again, just as they did in the preseason, SFO's offensive regulars did very little to separate themselves from their opponent. Dallas actually out-gained the 49ers by a 382-318 margin. Two of San Francisco's touchdowns came on drives of 2-plays for 15-yards and 1-play for 2-yards. The defense was mediocre, allowing 6.1 yards per play and 26 first downs. Dallas just couldn't hang onto the football, finishing with four turnovers to none for SFO. Heading into the 2014 season we felt that Chicago owned a high-powered, potentially high-scoring offense and we're not going to overreact to the first week's results. Yes, Chicago lost at home to the Buffalo Bills, but it was a bit misleading. The Bears gained 427 yards on 6.2 yards per play, but committed three costly turnovers, leading to 13 Buffalo points off of drives of 7, 14, and 37 yards. It's tough to beat anyone in the NFL when you allow opposing offenses to begin three drives on your own side of the 50, including two that began inside their own 15. Obviously, with the exception of the turnovers, the Bears' offense didn't disappoint. Matt Forte ran for nearly 5 yards per carry and he, along with Brandon Marshall (probable), Alshon Jeffrey (probable), and Martellus Bennett, combined for 29 receptions! I do believe Chicago will move the ball and will put points on the board against the somewhat short-handed SFO defense. I'm taking the points with the Bears, my NFL Blockbuster on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday. Green Bay was hanging around in their opening loss to Seattle until the offense suffered a couple of key injuries. One of those players, Eddie Lacy is expected to be back today, while Brian Bulaga is doubtful. But the Packers have had extra time to prepare with Bulaga on the sideline. They'll face a Jets' defense that was simply not tested by the horrible Raider offense a week ago. Look for Aaron Rodgers and company to do damage in this one. At the same time, Green Bay's pass rush certainly wasn't bad last week and will face a basic offensive game plan in this one, a huge drop down in level of competition. We also have the Pack in one of their better spots. Green Bay has been outstanding when laying 7 1/2 to 14 points at home under Mike McCarthy. Not only are they 18-8 ATS, but it's the average final score that puts it over the top for me. Green Bay has outscored those 26 opponents by an average of 33-16 and they're on an 8-1, 89% ATS run when laying more than seven points! I expect the Pack to keep the Jets' offense under wraps, while the New York secondary is not at full health. And let's not forget NY QB Geno Smith threw nearly three times more INTs on the road last season than he did TDs. The Packers' defense reacts well off of games where they allowed more than 350 yards, going 45-21-2 ATS the next time out. And they have averaged 29 ppg, while allowing just 18 ppg the 54 times they have been home chalk in the McCarthy era. I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday, my Non-Conf KO Game of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Sunday. Seattle has had a few extra days off after beating Green Bay 36-16 on September 4. The Packers weren't playing badly, in fact, the game was a close one until a first half injury to offensive lineman Brian Bulaga hamstrung the Packers up front the rest of the game. Green Bay was unable to run their planned sets with much confidence with Bulaga sidelined and an injury at Center that forced them to start rookie Corey Linsley. Not to say the Pack are as good as Seattle, but they were at least in the game up until halftime. San Diego looked like the better team in their MNF contest with Arizona. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they blew an 11-point third quarter lead and although they had plenty of chances to escape Phoenix with a win, too many unforced errors on offense did them in. The SDG receiving corps looks strong and will keep the Seahawks busy on Sunday. Defensively, the Chargers can disrupt with their linebackers and I believe they'll slow Russell Wilson, Marhsawn Lynch, and the Seattle offense enough in this one to keep it close throughout. San Diego enters on a 4-0 ATS run as an underdog, they're 6-1 ATS in their last seven, overall, and the Bolts are on a 5-0-1 ATS September run. I'm grabbing the points with the Chargers, my Sunday Dog Pound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday. The last time a game between these two rivals was decided by more than a FG was opening week 2011. But I expect Pittsburgh to change that with a win in Baltimore on Thursday night. The Steelers opened-up a 27-3 lead over Cleveland this past Sunday, but shut it down a little too early and had to fight and scrap to keep from suffering a disastrous loss. We should note that the Steeler defense played much better before Cleveland went virtually all no-huddle in the second half. The Ravens do not want to play a hurry-up brand of offense and won't when this one kicks off. Joe Flacco threw 62 passes last week, starting just 3-of-12. In fact, besides connecting on just 25% of his first 12 attempts, Flacco had 15 yards passing with 2 minutes to go in the second quarter. Defensively, the Ravens are susceptible and we saw Andy Dalton and the Bengal offense have little trouble moving the chains in the first half. Unfortunately, for Cincy, they couldn't "close the deal" and had to settle for 5 FGs, which ultimately, nearly cost them the game. Besides the healthy passing game led by Ben Roethlisberger, the Ravens' defense will also have to face what looks to be a very good ground game. Le'Veon Bell ran for over 100 yards with another 88 yards receiving. Markus Wheaton also showed his worth with a half-dozen receptions on Sunday, including great work on the game-winning drive. Yes, Baltimore is in desperate need of a win at home, but I don't believe they're going to get it at M&T Bank Stadium, where they're on a 0-4 ATS slide since last season. Former Ravens' safety Ed Reed said on Tuesday that he doesn't see anyone to lead Baltimore in the locker-room. He said this version has a different mindset than the Baltimore teams he played on. We believe Ed Reed. And we should note in the first month of the season, home teams off at least one loss have covered just 28 of the last 90, provided the line is in the -3/+3 range and the home team lost their final two games of the previous season. So, backing a team solely because they "need" a win in the firt month of the season has its pitfalls. This is one of them. We should also mention that Pittsburgh is on a 5-0 ATS run off a SU win and they're 3-0-1 ATS the last four against the Ravens and 5-1 ATS the last six times in Baltimore. I'm grabbing the points with Pittsburgh, my Thursday night Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Monday night. Arizona is quite short-handed on defense and I do expect Philip Rivers and company to take full advantage. When Rivers looks across the line he will no longer see a Cardinal defense that includes Karlos Dansby (Browns) or Daryl Washington (suspended). Nor will he see Darnell Dockett (knee...IR). Even if Arizona lines-up Patrick Peterson on Keenan Allen, Rivers will have several targets for the Arizona defense to deal with and that includes the possibility that Antonio Gates may not play (questionable). I'm not too crazy about Arizona's linebackers and I do believe the Charger offense can take advantage. The Chargers could be a little stronger on the defensive line, but in tonight's case, I do expect decent pressure to be applied to Carson Palmer. And let's not forget that RB Andre Ellington is doubtful with a foot injury. The Cards have not fared well on MNF, losing four straight ATS. Meanwhile, the Chargers finished last season on a 4-0 ATS run on the road. I'm grabbing the points with the Chargers, my Monday night Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Broncos on Sunday night. The Indianapolis Colts are off back-to-back 11-5 seasons, but are fraudulent in my opinion. We saw the Colts' six losses (includes playoff defeat) come mostly in ugly fashion in 2013, averaging just 16.3 ppg, while allowing 34.3 ppg. In fact, the Colts allowed 38 points or more in five of their final 10 games, including the postseason. I expect the defense to be another notch down with LB Robert Mathis sidelines by suspension. The offensive line is also a mess, with injuries and departures, especially on the interior. And the running game will have to be manned by Trent Richardson. The former first round draft pick of the Cleveland Browns struggled throughout 2014 and is starting thanks mostly to the loss of Donald Brown and the injury to Vick Ballard. Andrew Luck has saved his team's bacon many times through his first couple of NFL seasons, but not this time. I believe there are too many holes up front to be remedied by Luck. Denver will be missing a couple of WR's with Eric Decker moving on and the suspension to Wes Welker. But Peyton Manning makes a passing game click, no matter who's on the receiving end of the football. Also, I expect the defense to be better than the 2013 version. Denver went 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in Manning's first September as a Bronco, winning by an average score of 44.8 to 22.8. Playing against Indy falls into a 33-11 ATS spot tonight. You play against 3 1/2 to 10 point underdogs if they finished the previous season with a winning SU record. Meanwhile, Denver laid between 7 and 14 points 10 times during the 2013 regular season and went 8-2, 80% ATS. The last two spots add up to a 41-13 ATS mark. I'm betting the Broncos will cover a big number again. I'm laying the points with Denver, my Sunday Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Buccaneers on Sunday. A lot of changes since these teams took the field in 2013. Tampa Bay owns serious upgrades in coaching moves with Lovie Smith arriving on the scene. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers are definitely a notch down on the offensive side of the football. Cam Newton, who had off-season ankle surgery and has a healing rib injury is expected to start, but has little to throw to as far as experienced wideouts. He'll be using his TE's when he can get the ball to them. Newton and his offense didn't get a lot of time to develop a chemistry after the QB missed a decent amount of August. Carolina also lost a little bit from their defensive backfield and I do believe it's going to take some time for this team to get going. Then again, this team normally gets off to slow starts, at least where we care the most, the almighty point-spread. Carolina enters on a 5-11 ATS September slide, including a 0-5 ATS mark in week-1. But back to the secondary, Carolina's DBs will have to defend against a pair of 6'5 receivers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. The offensive backfield isn't bad in QB Josh McCown and RB Doug Martin. And new DC Leslie Frazier has a lot to like on the defensive side of the line of scrimmage. I do believe the Buccs are a couple notches ahead of Carolina at this point. Besides the "go-against" spots mentioned above, the chalk between these NFC South rivals is on a 6-1 ATS run. I'm betting it'll be 7-1 after Sunday. I'm laying the points with the Buccaneers, my Sunday Tapout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. 

I'm laying the points with the Houston Texans on Sunday. Two new head coaches make their regular season debuts in this one with Jay Gruden calling the shots for the Skins and Bill O'Brien on the Texans' sideline. O'Brien has a fierce defense to work with when healthy - and they are healthy to begin the season. This means we'll see J.J. Watt at full tilt, along with LB and defensive leader Brian Cushing. I expect better offensive results in 2014 for the Texans after watching the Houston implosion last year under the direction of Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub. Better and smarter QB play from Schaub (week-3 v. Seattle) and Case Keenum (week-7 v. Kansas City) could have easily had Houston at 4-3 SU heading into their bye week, rather than 2-5, eventually finishing 2-14 SU, losing their final 14 games of the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the nod as the starter in 2014 and we expect game-management and fewer mistakes from the QB position. Fitzpatrick is blessed with a strong receiving combo of Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins and RB Arian Foster. Houston's offense will face a Redskins' defense playing without a lot of quality depth in the secondary thanks to injuries and a suspension. I believe Houston will be too much for the Skins in this one, extending Washington's road woes to 1-6 ATS in their last seven. I'm laying the points with the Texans, my Afternoon Annihilator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Packers on Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers missed a slew of games last season, but he's healthy and I expect the no-huddle offense to be "just what the doctor ordered" to off-set the "12th-man" in Seattle. Green Bay has the confidence that they can not only play with Seattle, but beat them on their own turf. These teams met in a now infamous replacement ref game in September 2012, when Seattle won 14-12 on a blown officiating call in the endzone. But the Packers will remember that they took this team right to the wire and would have won the game if not for the blown call. The Packer offense is more than Rodgers. Eddie Lacy ran for over 1,100-yards last season and Randall Cobb is once again healthy after missing more than half of the Packer games a season ago. Defensively, the Pack will welcome the return of Clay Matthews and they acquired DE Julius Peppers in the off-season. They'll be tested by Seattle's talented and poised offense, no doubt, but I believe the Packers are up to the task. I do expect a slight drop-off early in the season for Seattle's defense. They did lose lineman Chris Clemons, one of three defensive losses up front. The Packers own the offense to exploit the loss of the three defenders and I expect the matchups up front to be a big key to this game...advantage Green Bay! The Packers are 40-27 ATS on the road under the direction of HC Mike McCarthy and I expect another cover tonight. I'm grabbing the points with the Packers on Thursday night, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.