I'm taking the points with the Saints on Sunday.  No problem with piling up the yardage for the Saints as they did so again in Monday's loss, gaining 474 yards and picking up 32 first downs. Drew Brees is tearing up the league through the air, showing no signs of letting down and this week he faces the NFL's 30th ranked pass defense, allowing 322 yards passing per contest. The Chargers stop-unit is banged-up this week, which should add to their woes.  Speaking of defense, the Saints are healthier this week, expecting Kenny Vaccaro to return at safety. He and his mates will face an offense that has been hamstrung with the losses of Keenan Allen & Danny Woodhead, and Antonio Gates remains doubtful.  The Saints have reacted to this situation well, on a 6-1 ATS run on a Sunday following a Monday night game.  Meanwhile, you're 11-3 ATS if you've been playing against the Chargers at home.  One final note--we are playing the Saints plus the points even if WR Willie Snead sits this one out (questionable - toe).  My DogPound play is the Saints plus the points.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Carolina on Sunday.  After a horrendous performance in week-3, I expect the Panthers' offensive line to get just what it needs in week-4, a date with the weak Atlanta Falcon pass rush.  The Falcons have garnered just three sacks in three games and the defense ranks near the bottom of the league in all key categories, including points allowed per game (30.3), yards passing allowed (313), and total yards allowed per game (433).  Their best situation comes against the run, yet the Falcons rank 22nd in that important category.  After being under constant pressure and suffering eight sacks against a very good Viking defense, I expect a serious bounce back performance by the Panther offense, including Cam Newton here.  And yes, ATL put 45 points on the board on Monday night, but they were actually out-gained by New Orleans, allowing 474 yards of offense and 32 first downs. And while the Falcons are on a 1-6 ATS slide at home, the Panthers have covered 11 of their last 12 as divisional October favorites.  Atlanta has covered just 6 of their last 33 after gaining at least 375 yards in each of their previous two games.  I'm backing the Panthers minus the points, my Div Knockout! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

We backed the Saints when they reopened the Superdome following Hurricane Katrina.  We will do so again on the 10th anniversary.  It will be an emotional night and Drew Brees has spoken about this with the same determination to win that he had in 2006.  He's also spoken about the need to win after losing the first two games of the season.  New Orleans is 0-2, but they're a grand total of just four points away from a pair of wins.  The Saints still rank 2nd in the league in yards passing per game, but we also liked what we saw out of RB Mark Ingram last weekend and we do know the Falcon defense is permissive.  Atlanta heads into this one ranked 24th in yards passing allowed and 24th in yards rushing allowed.  No the Saints' defense isn't of championship caliber either, but we expect them to be good enough to get the job done tonight.  ATL rolls into this one on a 1-9 ATS conference slide, while the Saints are on a 5-0 ATS run within the division and a 4-1 ATS run at home against ATL.  The Saints aren't winning any more NFL titles with Brees behind center, but I expect them to take care of business in this one.  I'm laying the points with the Saints, my Monday Night Knockout. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bears on Sunday night.  Jay Cutler is out and Brian Hoyer is in at QB for Chicago and that's certainly no downgrade (15-11 record as a starter).  Dak Prescott hasn't disappointed, but he runs into a top-10 squad (total defense) this week and his team is simply overvalued.  I do believe Hoyer will manage the offense and stay away from costly mistakes, backed by a defense that can harass Prescott.  Chicago enters on a 6-2 ATS run on the road, while Dallas enters on a disastrous 16-34-1 ATS slide at home.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bears, my Sunday Smash. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.  We had the Jags in week-1, citing in part, the impressive moves the team made in the off-season.  They should have beaten Green Bay outright, outgaining the Pack 348-294.  Last weekend, the Jags looked hungover from the heartbreaking week-one loss.  They're back home and while their record says 0-2 and Baltimore's says 2-0, I believe the better team is the one without a win.  Baltimore handled the dysfunctional Buffalo Bills & Cleveland Browns...barely.  The Ravens were actually outgained by the Browns, including allowing 145 yards rushing on 6.3 yards per carry.  We believe the additions made in the off-season will come to the forefront in this one for the Jags and expect domination in the trenches. We're betting the Jags put one in the win column against the Ravens and their sluggish offense, ranked in the bottom-third in the league.  Baltimore enters just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off a win, while the Jags have covered four of their last five, overall, and they beat the Ravens in Baltimore last season. I'm backing the Jaguars, my first Smackdown release of the season. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Indianapolis Colts.  We passed the Broncos opener with Carolina and played on Detroit and against Indianapolis. While Indy's defense left more than a little to be desired, we saw things we like from the 2016 Colts' offense. Indy made some additions to the offensive line and get this -- Andrew Luck actually had time in the pocket.  Pro Football Focus reported that Luck was only pressured on 29% of his drop-backs, a much improved number over last season when he normally was pressured between 36% and 42% of the time.  We expect success on Sunday.  Denver was in a huge emotional spot last week and they were also attempting to show they could win without Peyton Manning behind center. Young Trevor Simien played well for the most part, owns confidence, but also made the occasional poor decision, leading to an errant pass.  With game film on him, I expect Indy to devise a defense that will bring Simien back to earth in week-2.  The NFL is fickle, especially for rookie QBs.  The Colts enter on a 21-8 ATS run off a SU loss, while Denver is on a 1-6 ATS slide against teams with a losing record. I'm backing the Indianapolis Colts, my AFC DogPound Game of the Month!  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bengals on Sunday.  Cincy may have gotten away with one last weekend, but I expect complete readiness for the contest with the Steelers.  Pittsburgh, despite the big MNF victory are still short-handed. Le'Veon Bell is still out (susp), Martavis Bryan was lost for the season before the season began (susp), Markus Wheaton is questionable, and Ryan Shazier is banged-up, but should play. This is the spot where I do believe the missing and banged-up parts will come into play.  Eli Rogers had a big game in the passing game on Monday; he's no longer a surprise.  The Steeler defense is near or in the bottom-third in the league on paper.  Meanwhile, Cincy owns the offense to take advantage of Pittsburgh up front with a top-10 offensive line looking to bounce back from a weak showing in week-one. Yes, Cincinnati is in big revenge after last year's season ending meltdown on the field.  But I'm not a big revenge-angle type of bettor.  I just believe they're the better team at this particular time and in this particular game.  The Bengals have been a money-maker in opening month games, on an 18-6-2 ATS September run, while the Steelers are on a 1-5-1 ATS slide the week after a MNF contest, struggling on short weeks. The short week combined with being less than 100%, I expect Pittsburgh to struggle here.  I'm taking the points with the Bengals my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.  New England, or at least the players available last weekend, were not only fired-up to take on Arizona without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski as a 9-point dog, but they were as well-coached that a football team can be for a particular opponent.  Jimmy Garoppolo operated a game plan that included attacking a weak Arizona secondary.  Most mass media will report a final score or the interesting story involving Brady, but very few will report that Arizona was starting a rookie corner, who gave up over 70 yards and a TD on seven targets.  Miami's secondary isn't top-5, but they're better equipped to slow a QB early in his career as a starter than Arizona was.  I also expect New England's middle-of-the-pack offensive line to find quite a bit of resistance this week.  The Dolphin offense took on the fierce Seattle defense last week, but if not for a 70-yard Kenny Stills dropped pass, Miami likely wins that game.  Look for more success from the Miami attack in week-2 with Ryan Tannehill aiming for his 4th straight 300-yard passing performance against the Pats.  We like the points in this one.  I'm grabbing the underdog Dolphins, plus the points, my Sunday Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with (463) the San Diego Chargers on Sunday.  KC finished the season on a fantastic run that saw the Chiefs win 11 games in a row before finally bowing out of the postseason in a 27-20 loss to the Patriots.  But I believe they're overpriced this week thanks to the winning streak, combined with SDG's down year in 2015.  However, let's not forget the Chargers won 14 of 22 games before injuries took their toll on the offensive line, along with other key positions.  The offensive line is healthy, the receiving corps looks great on paper, and Philip Rivers still owns the goods as long as he gets the time to throw.  We believe he will behind the healthy o-line.  I expect a drop-off in KC's pass rushing abilities since they're not fully healthy on defense right now.  And as reported elsewhere, KC's defense faced just two QBs in the top-10 in passer ratings in 2015.  The Chargers enter on a 6-0 ATS run on the road and they're on a 9-2-1 ATS run in September action, normally padding the bankroll to start the season.  I'm taking the points with the Chargers, my DogPound GOW.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Jaguars on Sunday.  We like the look of Jacksonville to start the season.  The defense has added more than half-a-dozen quality players to shore-up some leaks. Malik Jackson (Denver) and a healthy Dante Fowler are big-time improvements up front and I expect the pass rush to show great improvement over last year's version, which in turn helps the secondary improve, also.  The organization has shown the desire to give the Jags' defense the chance to win by bringing in numerous secondary players the last couple of years, including Prince Amukamara.  Offensively, QB Blake Bortles will work with one of the top receiving corps and running back corps in the league.  Green Bay will not walk away with a win in my opinion.  The offensive line is adjusting to the loss of its best player, Josh Sitton, who was shown the door in order to save over $6-million in salary cap.  While Jordy Nelson is back in the mix at WR, I do believe it's going to take a little time for the Packer offense to find its chemistry and rhythm.  As far as the Vegas books are concerned, CGT has said that Green Bay is the biggest "square" play in week-1 (as of Friday) and we'll gladly side with the sharp money.  I'm grabbing the points with the Jaguars, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the New England Patriots on Sunday. As reported elsewhere, conference championship favorites of three or less are on an 11-3 ATS run the last 14 times. That isn't the lone reason we're backing the Pats, not by a longshot. We're riding New England for the second straight week for other reasons, one of which, we expect Julian Edelman to play (as do most official outlets), even though some are reporting his status as questionable. New England enters with a 10-0 SU record this season when he suits-up, winning those games by an average margin of two TDs per contest. We also have the Pats in revenge of a loss in Denver during the regular season. Amendola and Edelman didn't play and they were heavily banged-up on defense. Despite losing, the Pats did hold a 14 point lead in the fourth quarter. You'll recall Brock Osweiler QB'd the Bronco offense in the win and New England suffered poor play on special teams. Denver will start Peyton Manning on Sunday and the offense has truly bogged down, even before Manning returned. They're settling for field goals, scoring just one offensive TD against Pittsburgh last week. Defensively, the injury to Chris Harris won't keep him out of this game, but will likely limit Denver's man-coverage. Bottom line, even in last week's win, Manning finished with a passer rating below 75. Look for the Pats to stack the line on early downs and force Manning to win with his arm. Offensively, we'll trust in Brady despite his team's record at this venue. New England is on an 11-1 ATS run in revenge of a loss as a road favorite. They outscored those 12 opponents by an average of 37-18. I'm laying the points with the Patriots, my Tapout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Seahawks on Sunday. This is a much different Seattle team that the one Carolina beat 27-23 in October. And we should note that in that game, Seattle actually led by nine points (23-14) with less than five minutes to go in the game. Seattle left the door open and Cam Newton did a fine job of taking advantage, leading to a game winning TD pass to Greg Olsen with 32-seconds left in the fourth quarter. Back then, Jimmy Graham was still healthy and Seattle was trying too hard to make him an integral part of the offense. He led the team in receiving that day, and current top target WR Doug Baldwin was an afterthought, finishing with just three receptions for 23 yards. Baldwin has become Russell Wilson's favorite target since the Graham injury and the Seattle offense began calling plays that suit them best. They'll face a Carolina secondary that's a little different than the one Seattle saw in October. We are also likely to see Marshawn Lynch on Sunday, which makes this offense that much more dangerous. Seattle enters on a 6-1-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record, and under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 19-6 ATS when playing with revenge, outscoring the 25 opponents by an average of 25-17. I'm taking the points with the Seahawks, my Sunday Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cardinals on Saturday night. The Green Bay Packers spoke about getting their offensive "mojo" back after their win last week over Washington. I believe the "outburst" had more to do with the Skins' permissive defense as much as anything else. And while they won 35-18, Green Bay finished with just 346 total yards, which was actually about 35 yards less than the 28th ranked Skins' defense allowed per game this season. This week, Green Bay faces the league's 5th ranked defense, allowing just 321.7 total yards per game. I doubt very much Green Bay finds their running "mojo" or passing "mojo." And while Washington laid back and didn't blitz a banged-up Packer offensive line, the Cardinals certainly will bring heat and at other times, stack the box. The Arizona offense holds the hot hand in QB Carson Palmer, who has plenty of weaponry, including a strong ground attack. Arizona is a complete team, arguably the best team in the NFL and I expect another spread-covering win, aiming for the season sweep of the Packers. Arizona enters on a 20-6 ATS run as an underdog, PK, or favorite up to seven points. And NFL home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 37-13 ATS run, if their opponent is in revenge, and off a win by 14 or more as an underdog (Pack closed +1 1/2 to +2 against the Skins). I'm laying the points with the Cardinals, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Patriots on Saturday. New England is as healthy as they have been in a long time. Maybe not at RB, but certainly in the passing game with the return of all key receivers, including Julian Edelman. Having the threat of Edelman on the field helps Gronkowski become an even greater threat, himself. Defenses are also forced to play honest at the line. New England was 9-0 SU when Edelman played this season, winning by an average margin of more than 14 ppg. KC is limping their way into this one with WR Jeremy Maclin banged-up. Their one deep threat is questionable with an ankle injury and will reportedly be far less than 100% healthy even if he plays. That takes away a big part of the KC offense. Give KC a lot of credit for reeling off the long winning streak, and we know about Andy Reid's road spread record, but the schedule has been very soft, including last week's wildcard opponent. New England enters on a 13-4 ATS run when facing teams with at least a 64% completion rate, winning by an average margin of 12 ppg. They're also on an 11-3 ATS run off a double-digit loss as a favorite. I'm laying the points with New England, my Saturday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bengals on Saturday. The public is in love with the Pittsburgh Steelers...no shocker there and according to Las Vegas Sports Book Directors, this is about as big of a "Joe's vs. Pros" scenario as it's going to get. The Cincinnati Bengals own the better overall numbers. Cincy ranks in the top-10 in scoring and they're the second stingiest defense as far as ppg allowed. This is a play no matter who QBs the Bengals, but while AJ McCarron is expected to start on Saturday, the cast was removed from Andy Dalton's broken right thumb on Wednesday and he might play. While Dalton was having a terrific season, McCarron has proven himself since Dalton suffered the injury and will have his full offensive arsenal. This means the porous Steelers' defense is going to have too much to deal with in my opinion. Pittsburgh ranks 30th against the pass and 21st overall, and Cincy can beat you a multitude of ways through the air, whether McCarron is aiming for TE Tyler Eifert, one of his premier wideouts, or tossing to Giovani Bernard or Jeremy Hill out of the backfield. It's a tough offense for a less than stellar defense to deal with when all hands are on deck. The Bengals own a big advantage on defense and I do believe they'll hold the Steelers in-check. Pittsburgh has been shaky on offense the last two weeks and a key cog, RB DeAngelo Williams (ankle) isn't 100% healthy. Pittsburgh was held to 17 points and a fortunate 28 points by the Ravens & Browns the last two weeks. They were held to 30 yards rushing on 19 attempts by Cleveland and would not have covered if not for a Browns' fumble inside their own 15-yard line. The previous week, the Steelers gained just 198 yards through the air against Baltimore. Big Ben threw two INTs and no TDs in the loss. The Bengals' Reggie Nelson will be looking to make plays after finishing tied for the league-lead in INTs. We all know about the Bengals' past playoff struggles, but this is a different team. Cincy enters on a 12-3-1 ATS overall run, and they're 7-0 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm taking the points with Cincinnati, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the SFO 49ers on Sunday. A horrible season for the Niners, but they can bookend it with wins if they knock-off the Rams in this one. St. Louis is off three straight wins, including last week's over Seattle, despite gaining just 205 yards of total offense on just 3.87 yards per play. Todd Gurley had a big game, but the star RB is doubtful for this one with a foot injury. More importantly, and getting to the situational part of this handicap, the Rams are on a 0-7 ATS slide on the road off a division game over the last three seasons, getting outscored by an average margin of 14 ppg. They have covered just three of their last 16 road games when coming off a game where they gained less than four yards per play. The offense doesn't reboot quickly after a poor outing. I'm grabbing the points with the 49ers, my Situational Shocker on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. This one looks like a match made in heaven if you're a Bengals' fan. Cincy has a ball-hawking secondary, producing 19 INTs on the season and the opposing QB will be Ryan Mallett, who believes in his arm so much that he forces passes into coverage. But it's more than just that. Cincy, having already won the AFC North will play all key players available on Sunday, according to reports. The Bengals can still win the AFC's #2 seed with a win over Baltimore and a Denver loss. There are a couple of other ways to gain the 2-seed, but that's the scenario they control. The Bengals will play hard since they go at 1 PM ET and Denver doesn't play until 4:25 PM ET. This one is also a case of the Ravens, who're done after this week, playing their "Super Bowl" in last week's win over chief rival Pittsburgh. The Ravens are also expected to take a look at young players in this contest. The Bengals are on a 9-2 ATS run against fellow AFC teams. Meanwhile, NFL home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 51-23 ATS run if they're off a SU road loss, provided their opponent is off an upset win over a division rival. Finally, Cincy has been "money" this season, going 12-2-1 ATS. I'm laying the points with the Bengals, my Mismatch on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cardinals on Sunday. Green Bay has won three straight games after falling to 7-4 a few weeks ago. But the opponent gets much tougher this week after beating Detroit, Dallas, and Oakland. Green Bay is also getting quite a bit of notice for their offensive play since HC Mike McCarthy took over the play-calling two games ago. But facing the Cardinals means you're taking on the league's 4th best run defense and 7th best defense in total yards allowed per game. The run stat is an important one because McCarthy has been relying on the duo of Lacy & Starks in the running game to take pressure off of the offensive line and Aaron Rodgers in the passing game. I do believe Arizona owns the goods to slow down Green Bay's ground attack, even with the season-ending injury to Tyrann Mathieu. After all, it's Patrick Peterson's responsibility to match-up with an opponent's top receiver. Offensively, Arizona ranks 3rd through the air, 6th on the ground, and #1 in total yards per game. The running game will face Green Bay's mediocre-at-best run defense. That's a winning proposition for the Cardinals and when the ground game gets going, Carson Palmer and his outstanding receivers will make the Pack pay. Arizona enters this one on a 16-3 ATS regular season run when favored by less than seven points, or is an underdog. I'm laying the points with the Cardinals, my Mismatch GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Falcons, my KO GOW for Sunday, 12/27. We are on this one for several reasons, including the fact that teams that have been undefeated after 14 or more games have been horrible spread teams. Carolina (14-0) almost succumbed to the pressure in week-15, but due to mental on-field meltdowns by Odell Beckham, a dropped TD pass, and a couple of poor red-zone decisions by Eli Manning, the Panthers were able to hold on for a 38-35 win. We had the Giants plus the points and cashed, despite the fact they dug themselves a major hole. Atlanta finally got back in the win column in week-15, thanks in part to Julio Jones lighting up the Jaguar defense. Jones was slowed down by Josh Norman and company in the first meeting of the season, but still finished with seven receptions for 88 yards. I expect a different outcome this time with Jones making more of an impact. Carolina, like all other teams who have reached this point of the season without a loss are the hunted. And I believe the Falcons will hang the number. I'm grabbing the points with the Atlanta Falcons, my KO GOW on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Jets on Sunday. New York went into the fourth quarter of this year's first meeting, leading 17-16. While they eventually lost 30-23, the Jets know they matchup well with the Patriots. The Jets' defensive line held New England's offensive line in-check all game and I believe they'll do so again, especially with New England's RB issues. Steven Jackson is the newest Patriots' RB, but he may not see a lot of action, or at least get a lot of carries this week. And in this meeting, the Jets have a healthy safety in Calvin Pryor to go toe-to-toe with Gronkowski. That's another positive over the first meeting when Pryor was not 100% healthy. Offensively, I like the matchups for the Jets, especially with Decker and Marshall taking on a New England secondary with a ton of injury issues. The Jets enter on a 9-1-2 ATS December run. Meanwhile, the Pats are 0-3-2 ATS in their last five against winning teams. I'm taking the points with the NY Jets, my Week-16 Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Chargers on Sunday. Yes, the Chargers are struggling through their worst record in 12 years and they have been hit by an injury epidemic all season. But SDG is 4th in the NFL in passing offense and given just a sliver of time, Philip Rivers will carve-up the shaky and worn down Miami secondary. Rivers is still an elite QB and while the Dolphins are still alive for a postseason berth, they're far from a true quality postseason team. The team was gassed on Monday night due to a lack of depth on defense. Suh had to play nearly every defensive snap. They're on a short week and it's a defense that ranks 30th against the run, 26th in pass defense, and 28th in ppg allowed. This unit is "just what the doctor ordered" for the Chargers to wrap-up possibly their final home game in San Diego on a winning note. Miami heads into this one on a 2-11 ATS slide after allowing at least 375 yards of total offense in consecutive games; they don't bounce back well. And they're on a 0-9 ATS December slide. I'm backing the Chargers, my Smackdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Giants on Sunday. The Panthers expect to be without RB Jonathan Stewart (foot) when Sunday's contest with New York gets underway. That's tough news for an offense without much depth at the position. Mike Tolbert & Forrest Whitaker have combined to run the football just 63 times this season. I'm a Cam Newton fan and maybe he deserves the MVP award, but he's completed less than 60% of his passes in eight of 13 games and he's finished at 50% or less in four games. The NY Giants have Odell Beckham on their side, and unlike some of the other top receivers the Panthers have faced, Beckham has a Super Bowl winning QB to deliver the football. In fact, after facing Julio Jones (struggling offense), Dez Bryant (QB mess), Deandre Hopkins (no true starting QB in Houston), Allen Robinson (Jags), and T.Y. Hilton (QB mess), this marks the first time Josh Norman will face an elite receiver with a QB who can get the job done. The Giants are just 6-7 SU, but they're a handful of plays and botched coaching moves from a 10-2 record. Road teams playing at least .750 football are 9-29 ATS if they're off a divisional win. Meanwhile, the Giants are on a 9-2 ATS run over the last two seasons against teams that average at least 7 yards per pass. They have defended those teams well, and have averaged 31 ppg, while allowing 24 ppg in those 11 outings. I'm taking the points with the NY Giants, my Top Hammer release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Houston Texans on Sunday. Neither team will have their starting QB for this one. Instead, Houston expects to start to T.J. Yates, while the Colts will likely start Matt Hasselbeck, despite injured ribs. Indy is a mess no matter who plays QB, thanks to poor offensive line play and the inability for Hasselbeck to hook-up with Andre Johnson, who has become invisible on the field. Then there's the horrible Colts' defense that has allowed 96 points and over 900 yards of offense over the last two games. The Colts' defense should be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Texans to take sole position of the AFC South. Yates has shown he can handle his time behind center in the brief moments he's been on the field. I believe a start against the Indy "stop" unit will allow him to shine for the Texans on Sunday. We should note that road teams with a +3/-3 line range and following a game where they scored no more than 14 points are on a 24-5 ATS run, provided their opponent scored no more than 17 points in each of their previous two games. And the Colts are just 5-17 ATS after back-to-back double digit losses. Houston has not beaten the Colts since December 2012, but I'm betting they'll snap the skid on Sunday. I'm grabbing the points with the Texans, my Knockout Blowout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Rams on Thursday night. St. Louis has done one thing extremely well all season...get to the opposing QB. The Rams enter tonight's contest with 36 sacks, good enough to rank second in the NFL. Jameis Winston was a disaster in the season opening loss to the Titans, but with help from a veteran coaching staff, he's improved, while also being protected by not having to carry his team. Tonight, under pressure, and without his full offensive arsenal, Winston is going to have to attempt to make plays. The problem is that Winston has completed less than 56.5% of his passes in five of his last seven games and seven of his 13 starts, overall. And toss out the ridiculous anomaly against the Eagles in week-11, and Winston has thrown just three TD passes in his other five games since week-9. The Rams, meanwhile, snapped a five-game losing streak that saw their 4-3 record fall to 4-8. They'll enter this one looking for their 6th win of the season, just six points away from a 7-6 record. The Rams' named Rob Boras Offensive Coordinator last week and he was awarded the game ball after they beat Detroit on Sunday. Boras is a Lovie Smith disciple and that helps the STL offense. I expect QB Case Keenum to be well-schooled on the Tampa-2. The Rams enter on a 13-3 ATS run against teams that allow no more than 3.5 yards rushing per game. STL has devised solid game plans against those teams. Meanwhile, the Buccs are on a 1-4 ATS slide on the road against teams with a winning home record. I'm laying the points with the Rams, my Thursday night Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Houston Texans on Sunday night.  Tom Brady is lining up without his full arsenal and we're seeing a definite effect of the totality of the injuries suffered by the Patriots.  Yes, last week's loss was a bit fluky, but I don't expect an easy bounce-back here.  Not only is Brady missing a consistent deep threat, but Gronkowski may not be at full health (probable) and the Pats are facing the NFL's 3rd stingiest pass defense.  J.J. Watt missed Thursday's practice with a hand injury, but he and his coaches say he'll be ready to go on Sunday night.  Houston's defense has played well the last five games, the team is 4-1 SU/ATS, and last week's 30-21 final score in a loss to Buffalo hardly tells the entire story.  The teams were tied at 21 with two minutes to go in the game.  Houston's on a 21-9 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record and they're on a 4-0 ATS run after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game, building on momentum well.  I'm taking the points with the Texans, my Knockout GOM.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Johnny Manziel is expected to start for the Browns and that gives the offense more versatility with his ability to escape, pull the ball down, and pass deep on the run. He'll face a horrible SFO defense that ranks 27th in yards passing per game, 28th in yards rushing allowed, and 28th in total yards allowed per contest. Offensively, the 49ers' ground game has been non-existent for the last seven games, due in part to the injury to Carlos Hyde. There won't be much to keep the Browns' defense honest, which means they can attack the pocket and get after Blaine Gabbert. Big advantages on both sides of the line of scrimmage for the Browns on Sunday. SFO is 1-5 ATS the last six off a SU win and I'm going against them here. I'm backing the Cleveland Browns, my Sunday Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Steelers on Sunday. Pittsburgh held Cincy to less than 300 yards of offense in the first meeting, a 16-10 Bengals win. Big Ben had just returned from injury and threw three picks in the game to aid the Bengals' cause. But the final 13 points scored by Cincinnati came on drives totaling just 57 yards on 13 plays, all helped out by Pittsburgh miscues. Big Ben has been on fire of late, passing for over 1,500 yards with 10 TDs in his last four games. DeAngelo Williams keeps defenses honest and the fact is, the Steelers have more weaponry than just about any secondary can handle. I also like the matchups in the trenches for the Steeler offensive line, led by Marcus Gilbert, who is having a tremendous season at RT. The Steelers are on an 8-0 ATS December run and they're on a 13-2-1 ATS run in Cincinnati. I'm backing Pittsburgh, plus the points, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cardinals on Thursday night. We played against Minnesota on Sunday and cashed an easy one with the Seahawks. Seattle defenders harassed Vikings' QB Teddy Bridgewater all game and stated afterwards that the young signal caller was actually scared on the field. I expect Arizona to do the same. Force Bridgewater to win the game with his arm by slowing down the Vikings' ground game. Minnesota owns two wins over Detroit when they were struggling badly, a win over KC when the Chiefs were misfiring, and wins over San Diego, Chicago, the Rams, Raiders, and Falcons. Their last two "step-up" game did not go well, including last week's 38-7 home loss to Seattle and a 30-13 home loss to Green Bay two weeks prior. Arizona's defense is outstanding, ranked 8th against the run and 4th against the pass, and they're even better on offense where they're balanced and rank 1st in the NFL in total yards per game. The Arizona running game will attack a Viking defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry. The Cardinals are on a 9-2 ATS December run and Bruce Arians coached teams are 18-7 ATS against defenses allowing at least 5.65 yards per play. I'm laying the points with the Cardinals on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. It's been a pretty amazing season thus far for Kansas City, winning five straight and getting back in the playoff picture after their horrible start. I don't believe they're going to continue the win streak on Sunday, though. Oakland has some weaponry that can give the Chiefs problems, including Latavius Murray, who has enjoyed a couple starts against KC, and the style of Oakland's passing game. The Raiders have a great third option in Seth Roberts and while I'm not the first to say it this week, it's worth repeating, the Chiefs have had problems with the third option, also known as the slot. Oakland averages around 267 yards passing per game and KC is on a 4-13 ATS road slide in the second half of seasons, against teams that average at least 260 yards passing per game. You'll remember last season's first meeting when KC entered Oakland Coliseum on a five game winning streak, only to lose 24-20. I expect more of the same in this meeting. Oakland is on a 4-0 ATS run within the conference and I'm grabbing the points with the Raiders, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. No Jimmy Graham for the rest of the season and Marshawn Lynch is out, but I'm not selling the Seahawks. First of all, I'd rather have Thomas Rawls in my backfield at this point. He's hitting the holes quicker than Lynch was this season and Minnesota allows over 4 yards per pop. Also, Seattle enters on a 6-3 SU run with the losses coming by 3 points in OT to Cincinnati, by 4 to Carolina, and by 7 to Arizona. They were a handful of plays from sweeping that set and any one of those teams could very well be playing for it all on February 7. The running game is terrific, the defense is playing extremely well and meanwhile, the last time we saw Minnesota step it up in level of competition, they finished on the wrong end of a 30-13 final against Green Bay. Minnesota has two wins over Detroit, a win over KC when the Chiefs were struggling, and wins over San Diego, Chicago, the Rams, Raiders, and Falcons. That's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents. Yes, the Vikes have been a covering machine, but not here in my opinion. And if Seattle slows the Viking ground game, it'll likely be game, set, match. Seattle owns December football, on a 14-3-1 ATS run. And in second half of the season action over the last three years, the Seahawks are 10-1 ATS against teams that allow 61% or more completions, winning those games by an average of 29-13. I'm backing the Seattle Seahawks, my Sunday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Packers on Thursday. Revenge is on the mind of the Pack, but more importantly, getting back on track after dropping four of their last five games. Green Bay out-gained Detroit by more than 80 yards in the Lions 18-16 win a few weeks ago, but couldn't overcome a 104-yard Ameer Abdullah kick-off return that set up Detroit at the GB 1-yard line, leading to a Lions' TD. Eventually, the Packers lost when Mason Crosby missed a last-second FGA. Neither team could run that day, but Green Bay didn't have the services of Eddie Lacy. The Packer RB is back to health, topping 100 yards rushing in each of the last two games. With the ground game back to normal the passing game will benefit. Meanwhile, there's not much to say about the Lions' ground game, other than the fact they've struggled all season and rank dead last in the league, averaging just 74.5 yards per game. Detroit enters on a 1-6 ATS slide within the division, while under McCarthy, the Packers have recovered well from close losses, going 16-6 ATS off a loss by six or fewer points. I expect the Pack to gain a measure of revenge. I'm laying the points with the Packers, my Thursday Divisional GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday night. The injuries continue to mount for the New England Patriots with the latest, an injury to Danny Amendola (doubtful) further hampering an already banged-up passing game. The problem for New England is that they don't have the WR to stretch a defense on a consistent basis. Add in the injury to RB Dion Lewis and we saw all the bumps and bruises on offense almost catch up with the Pats in each of their last two games. Denver owns the defense that can make New England pay. Tom Brady was under constant pressure last week and will face the NFL's #1 defense in total yards allowed per game and #2 defense in ppg allowed. Denver will bring the heat against the Patriots without having to sell out. Brock Osweiler gets the starting nod again for the Broncos and looked good last week, connecting on 20 of 27 passes with a pair of TDs and no INTs. Osweiler can make the throws an injured and aging Peyton Manning was incapable of over his last few starts. Being able to make the passes helps free-up the running game and we saw Ronnie Hillman rush for 102 yards on 21 carries in week-11. You're 28-8 ATS going against NFL road teams that are off a win against a divisional rival, provided they're playing at least .750 football. And Denver is on a 13-3 ATS run at home against quality teams, those that outscore their opponents by at least 10 ppg. Denver won those games by an average score of 28-18. I'm taking the points with the Broncos, my Sunday Night Showdown GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the NY Giants minus the points on Sunday. We know three things are for sure under HC Tom Coughlin: 1) The Giants devise solid game plans for Bill Belichick and the Patriots. 2) They've been a solid road bet (55-38 ATS). 3) They have little trouble with the Washington Redskins. The Giants have won and covered five straight against Washington and the last four have come by an average margin of nearly 17 ppg. They beat the Skins 32-21 in September and I expect the season sweep to be completed on Sunday. The Skins have been unable to run the football for most of their last six games and Cousins will throw the INT against a good pass rush. New York's is better with Pierre-Paul in the mix. We had the G-men in their cover over New England, a game they should have won outright, but lost 27-26. This is a 5-5 team that's just a handful of plays from 8-2. And we should note that in the second half of NFL seasons, road teams in games with a +3/-3 line range are 40-12 ATS if they're off a SU loss where they covered the spread as a dog. The Giants fit the bill and have a chance to extend their lead in the NFC East to two full games with a win. I'm laying the points with the Giants, my Sunday Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday. The Carolina Panthers are a popular side ticket-wise in Las Vegas and we have used them a couple of times this season, but this is the spot where I believe they're going to struggle up front on offense. Dallas DE Greg Hardy could give major problems to the Carolina offensive line, in particular Michael Oher, who's weaknesses have not been exposed so far this season. The Panthers need to run the football because the passing game is an off-shoot of a strong running game, not one that can take over a contest. Dallas' offense is much more confident across the board when Tony Romo is behind center as we saw last week, including the offensive line, which paved the way against Miami last week, allowing Darren McFadden to rush for 129 yards on 4.5 yards per carry. Nothing but respect for the Panthers and their lengthy regular season winning streak going back to last year. But we feel Dallas catches them in this one. I'm backing the Dallas Cowboys, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. The Raiders are off back-to-back defeats, but last week's loss to Minnesota wasn't as bad as the score would indicate. It was virtually anyone's game to win with less than five minutes to go in the fourth quarter before the Vikings tacked on 10 points in the final 3 1/2 minutes. Shore up a couple of nearly length of the field scoring plays, including one on special teams, and Oakland may have won the contest. This week, the Raiders will face a stagnant Detroit ground game and an offense that averages less than 19 ppg. Last weekend, the Lions ran for 45 yards on 26 carries and threw for only 242 yards, but Green Bay was a mess and the Lions won by two points. I do believe Detroit is going to have to score some points if they wish to win this game. Derek Carr has two great weapons on the outside with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and Detroit's leaky defense is prone to this type of attack. Also, the Raiders have bounced back well from "bad" losses, currently on a 6-0 ATS run off a loss by 14 or more over the last two seasons. I expect another bounce back in this one. I'm backing the Oakland Raiders, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the NY Jets on Sunday. Big win for the Texans on Monday night, but that was as much of a case of the Bengals being in a very flat spot as it did anything else. And while T.J. Yates played well replacing Brian Hoyer during the MNF game, he's not ready for a start against the Jets' schemes in my opinion. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick is expected to start for the Jets. New York enters on a 4-1-1 ATS run on the road, while the Texans are 4-12-1 ATS off a SU win. Finally, the Jets' secondary won't be fooled by Yates' quick inside the hashmark passes, which should render the Houston offense ineffective in the second half. I'm laying the points with the NY Jets, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Romo's back and for the first time since the injury, the Cowboys finally have a true NFL starting QB on the field. Dallas has lost seven straight games and while a playoff spot seems next to impossible, the Cowboy players aren't thinking that way. An important note from the losing streak is that even with the injuries, the Cowboys were just a handful of plays from winning in each of their last four losses. Toss in an OT loss to New Orleans earlier in the season and you can see why Dallas, with Romo back from injury, plays closer to a power rating of a 7-2 team than a 2-7 team. Meanwhile, Miami has not beaten a team with a record currently above .500. The offense has been stuck in neutral, scoring a total of just 44 points in their last three games combined. They gained an average of just 318.7 total yards per game in those outings, rushing for just 73 yards per game on 3.55 yards per carry. Stretch that out over the course of the season and the Dolphins would rank 30th in total yards per game and 31st in yards rushing per game. It's no wonder Ryan Tannehill passes have found paydirt just twice in the last three games. Dallas is decent against both the run and pass, a little better than middle of the pack, and should have little trouble in this one. We should note that November road teams off of at least seven straight losses are 23-5 ATS, and road teams with a +3/-3 line range are 26-5 ATS off a road loss, provided they have a losing SU record. Dallas is the Tapout release on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night. Three straight covers and a couple of outright wins for the Jaguars, but now they're in unfamiliar waters, playing the role of the favorite. This marks the second time this season and just the fourth time since 2012 that the Jags have laid points. They lost two of the previous three outright, including a 31-20 loss to Houston as a 2 1/2 point favorite earlier this season. As far as Tennessee is concerned, we are talking about a team that has underachieved this season, but are six points away from a winning 5-4 SU mark. Even in last week's loss to Carolina, the Titans trailed just 17-10 with less than 10 minutes to go in the contest. Tennessee plays a solid brand of defense, ranked in the top five against the pass and in total yards allowed per game. And with Mike Mularkey in charge, Marcus Mariota has been sacked just once in 64 drop-backs over the past two games, a major improvement from the norm under former HC Ken Whisenhunt. Another key to this game are the Titans exotic blitz packages. Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles is not only on a short week, but he's also been banged-up, while attempting to get ready for Dick Lebeau's schemes. The Jags enter on a 5-13-1 ATS slide off a SU win and they have covered just eight of their last 28 home games (one push). I'm grabbing the points with the Titans, my Thursday beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Giants on Sunday. If the Giants win today, it'll mark the fourth straight time they have beaten the Bill Belichick New England Patriots. I think it's safe to say, Tom Coughlin knows a thing or two about the Pats' style of play and what bothers them the most. New York has had its ups and downs on offense this season, but with most hands on deck, the offense is now rounding into form, putting up 81 points in their last two games, combined. New York also has Jason Pierre-Paul back on the field, which bolsters the pass rush. And one thing the Patriots won't have for the rest of the season moving forward is Dion Lewis, an instrumental part of 2015 attack. The Patriots have not faced a murderers row of defensive squads...I expect this to be their toughest test yet. New York has 13 INTs on the season, tied for the league lead and will look to be the first team to disrupt Brady this season. The Giants are 5-2 SU in their last seven games and they're just eight points away from an 8-1 SU mark, overall. The last four meetings have been decided by 4, 4, 3, & 3 points and again, all covered by the Giants. I'm taking the points with the NY Giants, my DogPound release on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. The three biggest names on this week's injury list for this game are all expected to play. Teddy Bridgewater, Charles Woodson, and Latavius Murray are all listed as probable. It didn't really matter to me if Bridgewater suits up or not. The Viking signal-caller leads a dormant passing game, relying heavily on the legs of RB Adrian Peterson. After all, Minnesota ranks 30th through the air and 30th in total yards per game. Oakland has not had problems defending the ground game, where the defense ranks 7th in the league, so Minnesota's offense plays right into what the Raiders do best. Offensively, Oakland is dangerous through the air and should give Minnesota trouble trying to cover Amari Cooper & Michael Crabtree, along with the running game. Minnesota heads into this one on a 3-14 ATS slide on the road following a home win by no more than three points. Oakland will look to make it four straight covers and win their third outright home tilt in four tries. I'm backing the Raiders minus the points, my Afternoon Annihilator on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. I expected Tennessee to be 3-5 SU or even 4-4 through their first eight games of the season. But the silver lining for this team in what was a 1-6 SU start was the fact Ken Whisenhunt was shown the door. His style of play turned Marcus Mariota into a human pinata and he was fired not only for not winning games, but for not protecting the QB. Now, under Mike Mularkey, the offensive line is running a few different schemes and Mariota has time to breath in the passing game. We also should note the Titans are a handful of plays from a 5-3 mark. Remember, with Whisenhunt, Tennessee lost by just three points to Atlanta, and came within two points of Indy and one point of Buffalo, losing in part, due to odd play-calling in the fourth quarter of at least two of those games. I believe the Titans are catching the Panthers at the right time, off the big win over Green Bay, which followed an OT win over the Colts. We should also note that NFL favorites off an upset win as a home dog are 4-27 ATS the last 31 times, provided they own a winning record. We took the points with Tennessee last week and cashed when they won outright. I'm grabbing the points with the Titans again. Tennessee is my NFL Knockout Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Nice revenge spot for a Miami team that's much different from the team Buffalo whipped 41-14 in September. Gone is the passive react approach on defense. And gone is an offense that won't take chances. We went against Miami last week and cashed with the Patriots in a 36-7 win. It was a bad spot for the Dolphins, not to mention they were taking on the best team in the league. But Buffalo has fallen on hard times. They have won just one of their last four games and the lone win was a fortunate one-point win over the Titans. The defense has not looked good, allowing 34 points in each of their last two games. Buffalo can't pass and can't defend the pass and I'm betting they'll have trouble in this one. Miami fits a couple of nice spots to go along with the matchup advantages. Road teams are 25-5 ATS when the line is in the +3/-3 range, if they own a losing record and are off a road loss. Also, Miami averages 4.97 yards per run and Rex Ryan defenses have struggled against teams that have run for at least 4.5 yards per carry, going 5-15 ATS. I'm taking the points with the Dolphins, my Sunday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Titans on Sunday. I expected Tennessee to be at least 3-4 SU at this point of the season. But the fortunate result of a 1-6 SU record was the firing of Ken Whisenhunt, who I'm now convinced should not be hired anytime soon as an NFL HC. Mike Mularkey is not the answer long term, but he'll be fine here. Now the offensive line and the play-calling in general can get back to protecting Marcus Mariota. Getting back to a focus on the ground game will certainly help. And while New Orleans has enjoyed recent success, the defense is not good and Rob Ryan's game plans leave a lot to be desired. New Orleans has the second worst defense in yards allowed per game, almost equally bad against the pass and run. And let's not forget that Tennessee lost by two points to Indianapolis and one point to Buffalo, a pair of games where play-calling got a little odd. They lost another close one, by three points to Atlanta. The Titans are just a handful of plays from a 4-3 or 3-4 mark. New Orleans is laying more than three points for the second time this season. The first time they were a 9-point favorite over Tampa Bay and lost outright (we had the Buccs in that game). The Saints are on an 0-7 ATS slide when laying six or more points and I believe they're in for a tough one today. I'm taking the points with the Titans, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Steelers on Sunday. No Le'Veon Bell, but DeAngelo Williams should do just fine, both carrying the football and making a few receptions out of the backfield. Big Ben, back for his second start, looked rusty last week. But at this point I expect him to bounce right back against an Oakland secondary that can be had. Besides Williams, Ben has Heath Miller, Antonio Browns, and Martavis Bryant at his disposal. And outside of Charles Woodson, the Raiders are beatable for big plays. They're also susceptible to strong TE play, and as mentioned, Pittsburgh has that in Miller. I expect the Pittsburgh pass rush to fare better this week and won't be surprised to see a lot of pre-snap movement to make Derek Carr's job a little tougher. Oakland heads into this one having covered just four of their last 22 off a win as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Steelers enter on a 9-2-1 ATS regular season run. I'm laying the points with the Steelers, my Smackdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night. I'm not going to try to convince anyone that the Bengals are not as good as their record. The fact is, they're a very good football team. But they have had a handful of close calls (four to be exact) and they are being over-valued in this one, in my betting opinion. The Bengal defense is not great and will give up yardage and the secondary is susceptible to allowing a couple big plays per contest. Cincy ranks 23rd against the pass and 18th against the run and Cleveland owns a top-10 passing offense. We'll likely see Johnny Manziel at QB in this one, so there will be some differences, but he hasn't played badly in four games this season, including one start, throwing 3 TD passes with just 1 INT in 50 attempts. The Browns enter on a 5-1-1 ATS divisional run and the underdog in this series is on a 13-2-1 ATS run. I expect a close game tonight and I'm taking the points with the Cleveland Browns, my Thursday night Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. Carolina has issues at wideout as we all know and the completion rate in the Panther passing game is not too hot. The offense has had to rely on Cam Newton's know-how, the running game, and timely defensive play. Four of the wins came against Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. The Panthers haven't had to air it out much at all, and while the defense is good, they are just 18th against the run. It'll be interesting to watch the matchup between Carolina CB Josh Norman and Indy WR T.Y. Hilton. The Colts should get a couple of long pass plays when this matchup takes place because Norman likes to gamble. The Panthers also like to play a lot of 1-on-1 and I believe this helps Andrew Luck who can take full advantage with some of his bigger targets. The Colts are undervalued in this one and they're on an 18-6 ATS run off a SU loss. Meanwhile, the Panthers are on a 2-9 ATS slide at home following a home game in their previous contest. I'm taking the points with the Colts, my Monday Night GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the NY Jets on Sunday. New York is off a tough loss to New England, but they did get the cover in the 30-23 loss. This week, NY faces an offense their defense can handle. The Jets like to go toe-to-toe with opponents' receivers, but the Patriots owned the TE play that gives that type of defense fits. Rob Gronkowski ate them up with 11 receptions, while being targeted 16 times. Oakland does not have that kind of TE play. In fact, while Gronk caught 11 passes in the game over NY, Oakland's top TE has caught 11 passes all season. While the Jets defense is ranked 4th against the pass and #1 against the run, the offense isn't too shabby either. New York runs well, averaging 137 yards per game, and Ryan Fitzpatrick makes wise choices in the passing game. Oakland's three wins on the season have come against soft opposition. The Jets are certainly not soft. New York enters on a 7-0-1 ATS run against AFC opposition, while the Raiders are 3-12-1 ATS off a SU win. I'm laying the points with the Jets, my Afternoon Annihilator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Chicago Bears on Sunday. The Bears had a week to continue developing the timing of Alshon Jeffrey, who has returned to an offense that should now be a little too diverse for the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota may be 4-2 SU, but they have faced some of the league's weaker teams thus far, including Detroit (twice), San Diego, San Francisco, and Kansas City. Those five teams have a combined SU record of 7-21. Their lone step-up game came against Denver and Minnesota lost. Chicago may not be putting up big offensive numbers, but I expect that to change soon with Jeffrey finally healthy. Chicago piled-up 444 yards with the star WR back on the field last time out. Jay Cutler passed for over 350 yards and Jeffrey finished with eight grabs for 147 yards and a TD. I also expect a strong effort from the Bears' defense, facing an anemic Minnesota offense. Adrian Peterson is outstanding, but the Vikings are 30th in the league in the passing game, 30th in total yards per contest, and average just 20.7 ppg. The Bears have signed Ziggy Hood to shore-up D-line depth issues and again, defense shouldn't be a problem against Minnesota. Chicago enters on 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS runs at home against the Vikings and I expect another win in this one and we don't have to lay points. I'm backing the Bears, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Patriots on Thursday night. The coaching changes in Miami made an obvious positive impact. The Dolphins basically dropped their passive 2-gap, react defense to a more aggressive approach utilizing the talents of Ndamukong Suh & Cameron Wake. But that was against the offenses of Tennessee & Houston. Life gets much tougher on a short week against the Patriots' offense. Good luck being over-aggressive against this bunch. There are matchup advantages for New England to exploit on both sides of the line of scrimmage and I believe it'll translate well on the playing surface. Speaking of short weeks, Tom Brady and New England have flourished in these games. As reported they're 8-0 SU on Thursday's with Brady at the helm and he's thrown 20 TD passes and just 2 INTs. Miami is on a 0-5 ATS slide within the division, while the home team in this series has covered six straight. I'm laying the points with the Patriots, my Thursday night KNOCKOUT. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. The Ravens are 1-5, but not as bad as their record would indicate. Yes, there's no excuse for losing to the 49ers, but Baltimore has faced a very tough schedule through six weeks, thanks to one of the toughest travel situations in the NFL. And when we examine the losses, we see just how close this team is to owning a much better record. The Ravens lost by six at Denver, lost by four at Oakland, lost to Cincinnati by four points, fell to the Browns by three, and of course, the five point loss to SFO. They own the type of offense to control the tempo in this one with Justin Forsett in the running game and crafty vet Steve Smith at wideout. And yes, they may be out of the running in the division, (it would be extremely difficult to catch Cincy at this point), but look around the AFC and you'll see a wildcard spot is not out of the question if the Ravens go on a run. But first things first. A loss here and they're all but finished. I expect an all-out effort and for Baltimore to keep this one close at the very least. The Ravens enter on a 4-0-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record. And road teams are on a 29-8 ATS run if they've lost at least five straight ATS. I'm grabbing the points with the Ravens on Monday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Nice spot for Dallas as they catch the Giants still a little roughed-up on the offensive line. Dallas has been able to apply disruptive pressure at times this season, including the five sacks they garnered against New England. And now, with Greg Hardy and Randy Gregory on the field at the same time, NYG will attempt to screen, but I believe they won't be successful enough to win this contest. The Cowboy brass also made the correct move to Matt Cassel and while he won't have Dez Bryant, the offense should find success throughout. The Giants still can't stop the pass with the secondary still a mess, and on offense they can't run the football. Dallas has covered five of their last six road games and I'm backing them here. I'm grabbing the points with the Cowboys, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Colts on Sunday. We had the Saints on these pages last week and we cashed when they knocked-off the Atlanta Falcons. We also know we were somewhat fortunate. The Falcons turned the ball over twice deep inside New Orleans' territory, when scoring just one TD on the two possessions would likely have turned the game completely around. Rob Ryan's defense still allowed over 400 yards of total offense. Matt Ryan connected on 30 of 44 passes with 2 TDs and no INTs and Devonta Freeman ran for 100 yards on 13 carries. The Saints' defense lucked out thanks to the turnovers. New Orleans enters this one ranked 32nd in total yards allowed per game, 24th against the pass and 30th against the run. They also allow more than 27 ppg. Meanwhile, the offense can't run, ranked 31st on the ground. Indianapolis, and more specifically, Andrew Luck should finally find plenty of time to survey the field and plenty of open looks for their receiving weaponry in this one. I expect the Colts' offense to take full advantage of the matchup situations on the field. Indy heads into Sunday on an 18-5 ATS run off a SU loss and they're 20-6 ATS against teams with a losing record, while the Saints are on a 0-4 ATS slide off a SU win. I'm laying the points with the Colts, my Sunday Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Sunday. 5-0 SU/ATS and heading into a bye week following this one, the Green Bay Packers are laying their biggest number so far this season. San Diego's biggest underdog number was 3 1/2 points to the Bengals in Cincinnati. The Chargers fell short, losing 24-19, coming a failed 2-point conversion away from covering the spread. To me, this big double-digit number is a tad over-inflated. When SDG lines up on offense, they'll feature the NFL's second ranked passing attack and third ranked offense. And I do believe they'll give the Packer defense enough trouble to hang this number. SDG has fared well in this role, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Packers have covered just two of their last seven at home against teams with a losing road record, normally laying just a tad too many points like I believe they are in this one. I'm grabbing the points with the Chargers, my Road Warrior on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Kansas City on Sunday. Tough start to the season for KC, but they look to have hit rock-bottom a week ago. And now, without Jamaal Charles, I expect the Chiefs to band together, at least for this particular game. They certainly have the backups at RB to pick up the slack. I also expect a decent game from TE Travis Kelce, who is expected to play. The Vikings have issues with TE's and with the type of offense the Chiefs would like to run. The Vikings rank 26th against the run and I don't believe their bye week is enough to fix their dead last passing offense, either. KC has played a killer schedule with three of their losses coming against undefeated teams and they blew one last week against Chicago. I expect a bounce back here. Andy Reid-coached teams are on a 46-27 ATS run as a road underdog and the Vikings are 0-5 ATS off a bye. I'm grabbing the points with Kansas City, my DogPound on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Detroit Lions on Sunday. It's now or never for Detroit, and while that doesn't mean this is a spot for an automatic win, we believe they're getting "just what the doctor ordered" when the Bears roll into town. They Lions have come out of the gate, suffering five straight losses. But this is a team that could have beaten the Chargers in week one. They had SDG on the ropes, ahead 21-3, but couldn't finish it off. They also suffered the infamous and controversial loss on MNF to the Seahawks, a second game the Lions could have landed in the win column. Last week, the Lions committed four turnovers in their first six possessions and that was that. But the good news: after facing the Denver Broncos' defense, Seattle's defense, and the Arizona Cardinals, the level in competition drops off dramatically. Not only is the Chicago ranked 24th against the run and 29th in ppg allowed, but the Bears are near the bottom of the league passing the football and in points scored per contest. Chicago was outscored 105-46 in losing their first three games of the season. They then squeaked by Oakland by two points in the Windy City and lucked-out, so to speak against the Chiefs in an 18-17 win last week. Chicago is banged-up at WR, with frustration arising regarding Alshon Jeffrey's condition (hamstring) and they have health issues in the secondary. The Bears are on a 4-12 ATS division slide and they're on a 0-5 ATS skid in Detroit. Meanwhile, the Lions enter on an 8-1 ATS run, following a home loss by 10 points or more. I'm laying the points with the Lions, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with New Orleans on Thursday night. I went against both of these teams last week and we cashed both tickets, including our top play of the week, when the Eagles scored 29 straight points en route to the win and cover over the Saints. I mentioned that New Orleans had poor timing, having to face an Eagles' offense that looked to be finding their rhythm in the second half of the previous week. I went against Atlanta, citing their improving, but not too hot Falcon defense. Atlanta still can't defend the pass, ranked 29th in the league. And let's face it, the Falcons have enjoyed plenty of good luck. Yes, they're 5-0 SU, but they have trailed in the fourth quarter in four of their wins. And look at the list of QBs they have faced. Defending Sam Bradford, Brandon Weeden, Ryan Mallet, and Kirk Cousins is not quite as tough as having to defend Drew Brees. The only QB ATL faced in Brees' league was Eli Manning and the Giants would have won that game if not for a couple of boneheaded mistakes in the final minutes. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the league in average yards passing per game and I do believe Brees will find little resistance on Thursday. The Saints enter on a 17-4 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record and the home team has covered six of the last seven in this series. I'm taking the points with the Saints, my Thursday Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Chargers on Monday night. The Pittsburgh Steelers have had a virtual inherent flaw when it comes to facing offenses with quality tight-ends. The Chargers certainly have one with the return of Antonio Gates on Monday. The Chargers also expect WR Malcolm Floyd to return for this one and the added firepower means the ground game should get a boost with the passing game and ground attack now playing off each other. Pittsburgh was hoping to get Martavis Bryant back from suspension tonight, but he injured his knee in his return to practice and he's not expected to play this week. Obviously, the offense already has a different look with Michael Vick behind center. The Steelers will look to rely on RB Le'Veon Bell, but eventually will need to go up top to Antonio Brown and that's not Vick's strength. I believe the Chargers offense will prove to be too much for the Steelers and I'm backing the Bolts. I'm laying the points with San Diego, my Monday night Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Redskins on Sunday. Washington enters with a 2-2 SU mark, but they own the 8th best offense in total yards per game, the 4th best defense in yards allowed, and I don't believe many casual, non-betting NFL fans realize this. This is a defense that I believe will hold Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in check enough to keep this game close. New Atlanta HC Dan Quinn is making solid strides, but his defense still has a long way to go, giving up a lot of yardage, near the bottom of the league in total yards allowed and in yards passing allowed. Despite not likely having DeSean Jackson on the field, I still expect the Skins to find success. Atlanta enters on a 3-20 ATS slide at home off a home win and they're 0-7 ATS at home off a home win by more than 20 points. I'm taking the points with the Redskins, my Road Warrior Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Seahawks on Sunday. Cincinnati may very well contend for the AFC title and we have played on them already this season, but we're going against them in this one. As good as they have looked, dig a little deeper and the defense has shown signs of a rough game coming. The Bengals allowed over 400 yards to each of their last three opponents, and as reported in some places, they allowed those opponents to convert over 40% of their third down attempts. Seattle has had problems up front on offense, but they've also had a couple of games to work on the issue, not to mention, look to be catching the "right" defense to help right the ship. The Bengals' have given QB Andy Dalton all the tools for a stellar season, but the Seattle defense will be the toughest he's faced to date. And when Seattle's defense gets going, well, forget about it. They're on a 10-1 ATS run under Pete Carroll after holding their previous two opponents 14 points or less. Seattle is also on a 6-0 ATS run on the road against teams that average at least 6 yards per play. They held those offenses to 14 ppg. I'm taking the points with the Seahawks, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Eagles on Sunday, my Smackdown release. Philadelphia has not been able to get their offense in gear this season, but we saw "buy signs" in their loss last week to the Redskins. Sam Bradford looked like things started to click and this week, I expect the rest of the offense to kick into gear. The running game needs to improve with DeMarco Murray not gaining anything of note right now. But this is the defense that brings "just what the doctor ordered" in my opinion. Murray ran for 149 yards against the Saints last season as a member of the Cowboys. I expect a big game from the ground game and also through the air. In fact, former Saint, Darren Sproles should give the porous Saints' defense nightmares in this one. I have Philly winning this one by double digits and they are my NFL week-5 Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Houston Texans on Thursday night. Andrew Luck may or may not play. Matt Hasselbeck may or may not play. Both are listed as questionable, so the Colts re-signed Josh Johnson for insurance. I don't mind who plays QB for the Colts on Thursday. The problem for Indy's offense lies with the offensive line. The Colts have been out-gained in all four of their games this season, while Houston has out-gained three of their four opponents. A win here and despite the disappointing start, the Texans would move into a tie with the Colts in the AFC South. At worst, they would be just 1/2-a-game behind the Titans if Tennessee wins on Sunday. I expect the Texans to attack the Colts' up front putting plenty of pressure on the Indy passing game. The Colts head into this one ranked 21st in total yards per game, while they're near the bottom of the league on defense, struggling badly against both the run and the pass. I do believe this is "just what the doctor ordered" for Houston to right the ship. The Colts enter on a 0-5 ATS slide and we'll go against them in this one. I'm backing the Houston Texans, my Thursday night Smash. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Houston Texans on Sunday. We played the Falcons in week one and cashed when they held on against the Eagles. I like the hiring of Dan Quinn. But I'm not sold on the Falcons just yet, especially as a favorite of this many points after playing as an underdog in their first three games. ATL held on by the skin of their teeth against the Eagles. They escaped in week two, thanks to idiotic mistakes made by the NY Giants. And last weekend, the Falcons had the luxury of playing a Dallas Cowboys' team with Brandon Weeden at QB. So yes, give them credit for their 3-0 start, but let's keep it in perspective...it's a precarious 3-0. Julio Jones is expected to play, but he isn't 100%, suffering from a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, the Falcons defense is still in the bottom-third in total yards allowed per game and in yards allowed passing per contest. The Texans aren't elite in their offensive numbers, but they're solid, ranked in the upper half in the league in both running the football and the passing game. And while we aren't counting on it, RB Arian Foster may get a shot this week, listed as questionable at the time of this post. Again, this is a play whether Foster plays or not. We should note the Texans are also in the top half in the league in yards passing allowed. Atlanta enters on a 1-14 ATS slide at home following three straight covers and I'll go against them again. I'm taking the points with the Houston Texans, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Giants on Sunday. Obviously, books must adjust power ratings and point-spreads as a season progresses, but I believe the perception on these teams has forced too much of an adjustment. My ratings would have this game about two points less than it is if it had been played in week one. But with the Bills and Giants results thus far, we have what I believe is an over-adjustment. The NY Giants may have just one win, but they're very close to a 3-0 mark. Dumb and unforced mistakes in their first two games of the season cost them what could have been wins against Dallas and the Falcons. The pass defense may get what they need this week. I'm pleasantly surprised with Bills' QB Tyrod Taylor, and I did have the Bills last weekend. But Buffalo ranks 25th in passing offense. And the Bills beat up a discombobulated Colts' offensive line; gave up 40 points in the loss to the Patriots; and beat a dysfunctional Miami squad. I don't believe the actual play of these two teams constitutes this much of an adjustment. The Bills have covered just nine of their last 34 following a SU win by double digits. NYG is off the win against division rival Washington and they have not missed a beat in this situation, currently on a 12-2 ATS run off a win over a fellow NFC East opponent. No let up under Coughlin. I'm taking the points with the NY Giants, my Tapout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bears on Sunday. Oakland is off to a great start, but they're new to winning and here they are laying points on the road. Chicago has lost all three of their games, but this is a drop in competition after playing the Packers, Cardinals, and Seahawks. Oakland is improving, but obviously not in elite company just yet. The Bears have played well against the pass, ranked 6th in the league, which is an important note because that's what the Oakland offense does best...the passing game. Meanwhile, I do expect the Chicago offense to find success against the worst statistical defense in the NFL. The Raiders are allowing over 414 yards per game. I expect Matt Forte to get back on track, which will give the Bears passing game more time when needed. Oakland heads into this one on a 2-8-1 ATS slide off a win, while John Fox coached teams have fared well against defenses that allow at least 24 ppg, going 38-19 ATS. I'm taking the points with the Bears, my Sunday DogPound. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Thursday night.  Obviously, the Steelers are going to miss Ben Roethlisberger, but in a sense, not having Big Ben may very well mean a less effective Antonio Brown.  Michael Vick gets the start and while he played a decent brand of QB after coming in the game last week, he became the "human turnover" in the last couple of years.  Le'Veon Bell returned to the team and was an essential part of the Steelers' win over the Rams, but the Ravens had his number in last year's meeting and I expect more of the same with an urgency to slow Bell and make Vick work that much harder.  Joe Flacco has owned the Steelers' pass defense in the last four or five meetings and he's played well in his last two games this season.  Baltimore has gone against the grain, covering four straight on the road against teams with a winning home record.  They're also on a 14-4 ATS run off a SU loss as home chalk.  Obviously, this is a huge game for the Ravens after their 0-3 start and I expect them to be up to the task.  I'm laying the points with the Ravens, my Thursday Knockout.  Thanks!  GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. After a lot of trash-talking, the Bills started Sunday's loss to New England well, up 7-0 with less than half the first quarter to go. But for the next 2 1/2 quarters, Buffalo had their rear-ends handed to them. I did admire the fact they didn't quit and even pulled within striking distance in the 4th quarter. But they couldn't overcome Brady's strong day, combined with committing 14 penalties, three interceptions, a missed extra point, and two missed 2-point tries. But I do like the cut of this team's jib. And it's evident, the team likes playing for Rex Ryan. I expect the Bills' defense to bounce right back. There's a lot of talent on the stop unit and they'll be champing at the bit to get after the one-dimensional Dolphin offense. Lamar Miller found no open holes when running with the football in Sunday's loss to Jacksonville, putting the onus of the offense on the shoulders of their passing game. Buffalo will attack and pressure Ryan Tannehill in this one and that's good news for those of us taking the points. Offensively, the Bills' 3rd ranked ground game will take on a defense that's allowed an average of 142 yards rushing through the first two weeks of action. Alfred Morris gained 121 yards of his team's 161 yards in week one against Miami, while the Jags ran for 123 yards in week two. The Dolphins have covered just one of their last seven games going back to last season and they've covered just 14 of their last 44 off a two game road trip. Meanwhile, the Bills have covered four straight off a SU loss. I'm backing the Bills, plus the points, my NFL week-3 Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

(1 PM ET) I'm backing the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. Philly hit rock bottom last week with just one first down and 21 yards of offense through the first half in their eventual loss to the Dallas Cowboys. DeMarco Murray (probable) has been unhappy with his role thus far, but I believe the Eagles are catching the NY Jets at the right time, whether Murray is in pads or not. New York beat up on the Cleveland Browns and then took advantage of a Colts' offensive line that hadn't a clue on Monday. Both opponents were in turnover mode, assisting a Jets' offense that's not as good as their 31 points against the Browns would suggest. But on a short week and feeling a little fat & sassy, I expect both sides of the line of scrimmage to be more susceptible. The offense isn't a unit that's going to intimidate anyone as it is. I also expect the Eagles to pick up the slack for a couple of injured players, including Kiko Alonso, who's out after injuring his knee. Long term, he's tough to replace. But in this particular game, I believe the Eagles will take care of business. I'm backing the Eagles, my Road Warrior on Sunday.

I'm laying the points with the Colts on Sunday. It may be a little too early to say, now or never, but to use an old Yogi-ism, "it's getting late early." Indianapolis is off to a sluggish 0-2 start and Andrew Luck has turned the ball over too often. Yes, it's a short week off the Monday night loss, but I believe Indy is getting exactly what they need to get back on track. First of all, as much as we like Marcus Mariota (we had the Titans in week one), this is a step-up in competition on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Mariota sliced and diced the Buccaneers two weeks ago and while his team lost last week, the Browns aren't at the level of the Colts, either. Making matters tougher on the rookie signal caller, his offensive line, which allowed seven sacks last Sunday, is a little banged-up this week with OG Chance Warmack listed as doubtful with a knee injury. The Colts enter on an 18-4 ATS run off a SU loss and they're on a 7-0 ATS run in their last seven meetings. Different QB behind center for Tennessee than in those meetings, but I expect the same result. I'm laying the points with the Colts, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Redskins on Thursday night. The Giants are already closing in on a "must win" situation. Dropping to 0-3 would be quite detrimental to a successful playoff run. But I don't like the attitude or decision making of this team and I don't believe a near "must win" spot equates "will win." Washington showed potential in their 24-10 week one loss to Miami. It came together last week with a win over the Rams. The running game has been outstanding and with the ground attack in gear, Kirk Cousins flourished, completing 23 of 27 passes in week two. The Redskins' defense has also played well, ranked 1st in total yards allowed, 2nd in passing yards allowed and 4th in rushing yards allowed. Yes, it's early. But I believe we have a "live" dog that will give the dysfunctional Giants trouble. NYG may also be vulnerable on the offensive line with OLT Ereck Flowers battling an injured ankle. The dog is 7-2 ATS the last nine meetings and I'm backing the underdog again. I'm taking the points with the Washington Redskins, my Thursday night TKO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Colts on Monday night. I had the Jets in week one and we cashed when they clobbered the Browns. I wasn't too crazy with the Jets' play calling through the first quarter-plus, but eventually, the Browns' ineptitude allowed New York to open things up a bit. The Jets out-gained the Browns by just 12 yards by the time it was all said and done. Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to "manage" the game rather than having to win the contest. Fitzpatrick, starting due to the injury to Geno Smith, passed for 179 yards on 15 for 24 passing. I do believe the Jets' signal caller will have to make plays to keep his team in this one and that's not his forte. Indianapolis shot themselves in the foot over and over in their 27-14 loss in Buffalo. The Colts gained 23 first downs to Buffalo's 15, but couldn't overcome a minus-3 turnover margin. Andrew Luck may not have T.Y. Hilton tonight, but I expect others to pick up the slack, taking on a Jets' secondary that's likely to be without Antonio Cromartie (doubtful). Indy will be motivated tonight and they know how to recover in a hurry under Chuck Pagano, owning a 14-1 SU record when coming off a SU loss. In fact, the Colts are 18-3 ATS off of their last 21 SU defeats and they're 7-0 ATS following a double-digit loss under Pagano. The Colts won those seven games by an average score of 29 to 17. I'm laying the points with the Colts, my Monday Night Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Bengals on Sunday. Some were saying before the season that Marvin Lewis has his best team yet in Cincinnati. We'll find out soon enough. But what we do know is that the Bengals' offense has a chance to be quite potent with a healthy Tyler Eifert in the mix. The ability of the Bengals' TE was on display on Sunday in Oakland. Not only was he the most targeted player in Cincy's passing game, but he also opens up parts of the field for others, including A.J. Green. They really do feed off each other. Pay too much attention to Green, and Eifert can burn you. I also expect the Bengals to maintain their game plan. As much as SDG won on Sunday, the Detroit Lions also gave one away. The Lions went into panic mode as soon as SDG cut an 18-point lead down to 11 (21-10). Detroit began looking deep too often instead of a shorter, quicker passing game, mixed with the run. Cincy will stick to its game plan. Eifert, Green, and a steady diet of Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard. It's a lot for the Bolts to cover and I do believe they'll struggle in doing so. The Bengals enter on a 15-5-1 ATS run at home and they're 27-15 ATS following a double digit win under the coaching of Marvin Lewis. I'm laying the points with the Bengals, my Knockout GOW. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the Buccaneers on Sunday. We went against Tampa Bay last week and cashed an easy one with the Titans. Growing pains at the very least for Jameis Winston. Tampa could not have played a worse game of football at most positions on the field, outside of RB Doug Martin, who's the real deal. We may be in for a steady diet of Martin in this one which would take the pressure off of Winston. New Orleans had their chances on offense last week, but the defense continues to struggle. They allowed 120 yards rushing on nearly 5 yards per pop. They couldn't get close to Carson Palmer when the immobile QB dropped back in the pocket. This, from a defense that lived near the bottom of the league a season ago. Tampa Bay gave the Saints all they could handle last year, losing both games, but by a score of 23-20 late in the season and a 37-31 loss in OT in the "Big Easy" in October. The Buccs picked off Drew Brees three times in the two meetings. They understand how to defend the Saints' signal caller. New Orleans enters having covered just 27 of their last 76 divisional home games and I'm grabbing the points with the Buccaneers, this week's DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Steelers had their chances against the Patriots, but ended on the wrong side of a 28-21 final score. But they've had a few extra days to prepare, while the 49ers are playing on a short week, following their win over Minnesota on Monday night. Despite the win, I'm not buying. San Francisco is going to struggle more often than not this season. The win on Monday said as much about the Vikings as it did the 49ers. The offense is shaky, the defense is missing some key players from the last couple of seasons, and of course, there's the coaching change to throw into the mix. I believe the Niners are "just what the doctor ordered" for an angry and well-rested Steeler squad. The Steelers won't have Le'Veon Bell and they won't have Martavis Bryant again this week, but SFO doesn't matchup well with Antonio Brown, who tore up the Patrios last week. Big Ben threw for 351 yards against the Pats and I expect another big game in this one. The Steelers have won seven of their last eight home openers. And home teams that are favored or in a PK'm situation are 45-18 ATS, provided they lost on the road in the previous week and are hosting a team that won their previous game by at least 14 points as an underdog. I'm laying the points with the Steelers, my Smackdown release on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. The Falcons finally made the move in an attempt to take the next step when they parted ways with Mike Smith and hired Dan Quinn as new HC. Quinn brings a strong defensive mind from his days with the Seattle Seahawks and I believe he'll improve the Falcon defense rather quickly after we saw what he did in a short time the last couple of seasons with last year's Super Bowl runner-up. Quinn is bringing a 4-3 base to the Falcons and they have made acquisitions to fill the roles and develop a better pass rush, including bringing Vic Beasley to Atlanta via the 2015 draft. The Falcons also bolstered the offensive line over the last few weeks and brought in Kyle Shanahan to run the offense. And of course, the Falcons are still led by Matt Ryan, who's 40-17 SU in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons enter on a 15-5 ATS run when playing at home in the first two weeks of the season, while the Eagles are on a 3-10-1 ATS September slide, including a 38% ATS mark under Chip Kelly. I'm taking the points with the Falcons, my Monday night Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon. A battle of rookie QBs and I believe Tennessee rookie Marcus Mariotta has the better coaching and troops around him than does Jameis Winston. HC Ken Whisenhunt has been known to be a QBs best friend as a coach in the NFL and I like the players in place to fit Mariotta's skill set. Mariotta is the type of QB who can roam behind the line of scrimmage and extend plays. TE Delaney Walker fits well in this style and I believe matches up well as a "safety valve" in this contest. I also like the ground situation around Mariotta in this one. Defensively, the Titans are in their second year under the coaching of Ray Horton. We know his defenses normally take a season to catch-on to his complex schemes. The Titans also brought in long-time Steeler defensive guru Dick Lebeau to add his experience to the mix. Horton and Lebeau against a rookie QB who tended to make a lot of mistakes in his final year in college? I like that deal. Yes, Winston made up for those on-field issues on sheer talent alone while at Florida State. But I don't see him recovering so quickly against ultra-fast NFL defenders. Tampa Bay enters having covered just three of their last 14 first half of the season games, averaging just 17 ppg and allowing 28 ppg. They have also covered just one of their last six Sept games. I expect more of the same. I'm backing the Tennessee Titans plus the points, my Sunday Knockout GOW. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the NY Jets on Sunday. Todd Bowles takes over for Rex Ryan in NY and while I expect the defense to remain the same strong unit it was under the former staff, I do believe there will be a little uptick on the offensive side of the football. For one thing, I do believe Fitzpatrick at QB for the injured Geno Smith means a reduction in the potential for costly miscues, and that's an obvious plus when we consider the Browns' secondary is the best thing about that team. But in this particular game, it's all about whether or not the Browns will be able to generate on the offensive side of the football. I don't believe they'll be able to run the ball against New York and that puts the onus of the offense on a shaky passing game. Advantage NY Jets. Josh McCown isn't going to win this game with his arm in my opinion. The Jets won the last meeting 24-13 at home in 2013 and I expect similar results in this one. I'm laying the points with the Jets, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Patriots on Thursday night. Pittsburgh has not fared well in early season tilts under Mike Tomlin. They seem to be a little "late to the party" and we have seen it affect their spread results. In fact, the Steelers are on a 0-4 ATS week-one slide and they're 1-8 ATS in their last nine Sept. games, overall. Both teams are missing key players in this one, but we seem to say that quite often when it comes to the Patriots, who have not missed a beat even when not at full strength. I do expect the Pats to go to the air more than we have seen in recent seasons, and that doesn't bode well for the Steeler defense. Keith Butler takes over for longtime DC Dick Lebeau. Butler must find a pass rush, which would help a Pittsburgh defense that did not exactly shine against the pass. I don't believe it'll happen overnight, which puts us on what I expect to be a fired-up Patriots' attack. The books are expecting points in this one and the total is around 52 at the time of this post. We bring this up because New England is on a 6-0 ATS run when the total is posted 49.5 or higher. They won those games by an average score of 41-22. The Pats are also on a 10-3 ATS run against the Steelers. I'm laying the points with New England, my Thursday night Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Seattle Seahawks in Sunday's Super Bowl.  The public and sharps both jumped all-in when they saw Seattle open as high as a FG favorite.  The public based their wagers off what they saw last, which means they fell head-over-heels for the Patriots after their blowout win over Indianapolis, while falsely believing Seattle wasn't even the best team in the NFC.  The Seahawks may not have been the best team on the day of the NFC Championship, but they're the better team when comparing them to Green Bay, overall.  Seattle shot themselves in the foot for 3+ quarters, before doing what great teams do and finding a way to win the game.  I expect the Seahawk defense to be too strong for the Patriots' offense. Seattle had two weeks to prep for the record-setting Denver offense last season and crushed the Broncos in the Super Bowl, holding the Manning-led attack to 8 points and 306 yards.  In fact, Seattle has allowed this year's and last year's five playoff opponents to less than 16 ppg.  Meanwhile, the Seattle offense would like nothing better than to be able to run the ball in "beast mode" right at the Patriots and for Russell Wilson to utilize their desired, high-percentage underneath passing game.  I expect it to be a recipe for success and I'm laying the points with the Seahawks on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Patriots on Sunday. New England shot themselves in the foot a few times last weekend, including a late first-half INT thrown by Tom Brady when he had Rob Gronkowski open inside the Baltimore 40-yard line. A few plays later, Baltimore lands in the endzone and takes a 21-14 lead into the half, rather than being potentially down 17-14, or 21-14, themselves. New England eked out the 35-31 win over one of their nemesis, but I expect a wide margin win on Sunday. The Pats still gained 6.4 yards per play against the Ravens and I expect the offense to find little resistance against the Colts. Indianapolis was fortunate to catch the Denver Broncos at the right time. Peyton Manning was injured and it was obvious early on that he couldn't make the throws that have made him a sure bet Hall of Famer. Knowing Manning was unable to hit deep routes, or anything more than 15 yards downfield consistently, the Colts were able to focus their defense on covering intermediate and underneath routes. They'll have no such advantage this week and let's remember this is a middle of the pack defense. The Pats completely exposed the Colts in the second half of a 42-20 win over Indy earlier this season. New England ran for 246 yards on 5.6 yards per carry. I believe they'll find success on the ground again after Blount, Bolden, and Vereen combined for just 7 carries against the Ravens. New England enters on an 8-1 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record. They're 9-1 ATS the last three seasons against teams that average at least 375 yards per game, outscoring the 10 opponents by an average of 37-22. And the Pats are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home against teams that average at least 260 yards passing per game, beating those teams by an average score of 40-24! They're 3-0 SU/ATS against the Andrew Luck-led Colts, winning by scores of 59-24, 43-22, and 42-20. They ran for an average of nearly 200 yards per game on 5.17 yards per carry in the wins, while Brady has averaged 8.73 yards per pass with 5 TDs and 2 INTs. Meanwhile, the Colts haven't been able to run against the Pats and Luck has completed less than 54% of his passes with 6 TDs and 8 INTs. I expect another win & cover for the Pats and I'm laying the points. New England is my Tapout on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Denver on Sunday. All reports are that Peyton Manning has been sharp this week in practice and that the leg injury that has been bothering him has reached close to 100% healthy with last week off. Just more bad news for the Indianapolis Colts. Whether it has been due to a situation of Denver looking to toughen-up, or if it was facilitated due to Manning not being at his best, health wise, the bottom line is that Denver is a tougher "out" than last year's offense because C.J. Anderson has brought a strong ground attack to the game plan. The ability to mix things up will force the Colts' defense to play an honest brand of football and that means matchup advantages for Manning's targets, including Demaryius Thomas & Emmanuel Sanders, who have combined for 212 receptions on the season. The Colts have been a one-man-gang on offense since the running game completely fell off the charts when Ahmad Bradshaw got injured in November. A one-dimensional team, all pass in this case, will be hard-pressed to function at a playoff level against a stout Denver defense that's near the top of the charts in total yards allowed, yards rushing allowed, and in passing yards allowed. I expect Andrew Luck to be under constant pressure and we know he and the Colts will turn the ball over, averaging roughly 2 1/2 turnovers per game over their last seven contests. Indianapolis has had their problems when the level of competition rises this season. They're on a 0-6 ATS slide in the second half of the season & postseason (last 3 years) when they're on the road against teams playing .600 to .750 football, losing by an average score of 42-17. Look for Denver to advance to the AFC Championship game with a win and cover over the Colts. I'm laying the points with the Broncos, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the New England Patriots on Saturday. I had the Baltimore Ravens last weekend, and in fact, they were my biggest release of the wildcard round. But they were in a great spot, facing a Pittsburgh offense that was going about half-speed without their MVP, RB Le'Veon Bell, who was sidelined by a leg injury. Much of what Pittsburgh did on offense throughout the second half of the season was hamstrung. But the Patriots are a different story. Their key players are not only healthy, but will give the Baltimore defense many problems. The Ravens' secondary is banged-up and I suspect Brady and company will make them pay. Despite the injury to Bell, Pittsburgh gained 387 yards on 5 1/2 yards per play. The Steelers out-gained Baltimore by nearly 100 yards. That's a bad situation for a Ravens' squad that's 2-9-1 ATS after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game. When Baltimore allows a lot of yardage, it means things are not all too healthy, and it usually lasts a couple of games. The Patriots, meanwhile, are on a red-hot and perfect 8-0 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record. They averaged over 29 ppg on the season and held their opponents to less than 20 ppg. This has been a fierce series, no doubt about it, but I don't believe it'll be as close this time. I'm laying the points with the Patriots, my Playoff Smackdown GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday night. The Pittsburgh Steelers have made great strides over the last four weeks, winning four straight games and capturing a division title. But Ben Roethlisberger wasn't blowing smoke when he said RB Le'Veon Bell was the team's MVP. Now that he's sidelined with a knee injury, I do believe the offense is in for some trouble. Ben's been setting records thanks to a deep passing game. When Bell has been on the field he forces defenses to mind the run and that means one-on-one situations for Steeler wideouts. Bell has 83 receptions on the season (2nd on the team) and his running ability means the obvious, Pittsburgh can run the football, but also the fact that teams have to pay attention to play-action. Pittsburgh loses so much with Bell sidelined. Dri Archer can't block with his lack of size and he's not going to get you tough yards on the ground. So, the Steelers signed Ben Tate. Tate is a decent back, for the most part, but no where near the talent of Bell at this point. Baltimore's defense can now take chances to slow the Steeler passing game and they're getting Haloti Ngata back on the field this week. Meanwhile, the Ravens' offense has set team records of their own this season. They have won four straight games to get here and Joe Flacco knows a thing or two about winning titles. The Ravens are on a 5-0 ATS run in playoff action, overall, and they're 4-0 ATS in the wildcard round. I expect the perfect runs to continue. I'm grabbing the points with the Ravens on Sunday, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Steelers on Sunday night. I'm not a big believer in the Bengals in spots like this and we have picked our spots well when playing against Cincy this season. Pittsburgh has found a rhythm on offense, thanks in part to RB Le'Veon Bell. QB Ben Roethlisberger is not just blowing smoke when he says Bell should be a MVP candidate. Bell's ability to tote the football makes defenses like Cincy's send extra defenders against the run, which will allow Pittsburgh's receivers one-on-one coverage. Bell is also a serious weapon in the passing game and he's been instrumental in their play-action schemes as well. Defensively, the Steelers' young players have grown up and figured out Dick LeBeau's schemes and they're playing a much more physical brand of defense over the last few weeks. That defense will face the mediocre Andy Dalton, who like several other Bengal players have been battling the flu this week. That's not the reason for this play, but it certainly doesn't hurt us. The Steelers rolled-up 550 yards in their 42-21 win in Cincinnati a few weeks ago, cruising past the Bengals in the fourth quarter. We had the Steelers in that one and we're backing them against on Sunday. Pittsburgh enters on a 7-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record. And the window dressing: you're 34-13 ATS going against NFL teams off a win as a home underdog, provided they own a winning record on the season. I'm laying the points with the Steelers on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. To the winner goes the spoils. The winner in this game goes to the playoffs, while the loser stays home. I expect that winner to be Carolina, but my play is to take the points for insurance. The Panthers have improved of late in the defensive secondary and that's a must going against the Falcons in the dome. I expect Carolina's 9th-ranked pass defense to be much better equipped to slow down Matt Ryan and the receiving corps led by Julio Jones. But I also expect the offense to do their part. Carolina has averaged over 200 yards rushing per game during their current three-game winning streak. The ground game will face the NFL's worst defense in total yards allowed per game. Atlanta is also at the bottom of the league in yards allowed through the air. They'll have to help out against the run in this one and that leaves the pathetic pass defense even more vulnerable. The Falcon defense went into last week's game in New Orleans with just 16 sacks on the season, less than a couple of individuals have garnered in 2014. They were able to get to Drew Brees repeatedly, but that was an anomaly and we'll look for a return to norm. Cam Newton may not be as fleet-footed as he was in the past, but he will be a tougher "catch" than Brees was a week ago, and again, he has a running game to keep Atlanta honest. The Falcons have gained 403 and 407 yards in their last two games. Maintaining that kind of output is tough. In fact, Atlanta is on a 0-6 ATS slide if they're at home and gained at least 375 yards in each of their last two games over the last three seasons. They were out-scored 26-22 in those half-dozen outings...again, at home. I expect more of the same in this one. I'm grabbing the points with the Panthers, my Sunday DogPound crusher. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. Tough spot for a Detroit offense that hasn't produced on a consistent basis all season. They're one-dimensional, unable to find a running game most weeks (27th in the NFL) which makes them an easier offense to defend when facing a decent stop unit. Green Bay's defensive strength is the pass defense where they rank 10th in the league. Offensively, Aaron Rodgers continues to put up "sick" numbers at home. I doubt Detroit will be able to put the pressure on Rodgers with their base defense and that's a scary proposition when you consider the way Detroit struggled when sending an extra pass-rusher a week ago. And by the way, that was against the Bears and Jimmy Clausen. Green Bay lost in Detroit in week-3 and the offense struggled all game long. They'll look to make-up for it with a division-clinching revenge winner on Sunday. Detroit enters on a 3-12-1 ATS December slide and they're on a 0-4 ATS losing streak on the road. Meanwhile, the home team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this series. I'm laying the points with the Packers my Rivalry Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arizona on Sunday night. We all know the particulars, which include Seattle's strong defense against an offense being navigated by a seldom-used young QB. But the situation is obviously baked into the line as oddsmakers rightfully do. We also have Bruce Arians on our side and he's the right kind of coach for this situation. Arians always thinks outside the box. He's doing so again this week, or at least making Seattle prepare for it. Arians has said that he and the offensive coaches have put a package in place for Logan Thomas, a "relief pitcher" approach at QB, as he called it. But besides the line, the biggest reason we're backing the Cardinals is their defense. Arizona is 6th against the run and they allow just 17.4 ppg (3rd stingiest in the NFL). Seattle's offense is not one to beat you consistently through the air, where they rank 30th in the league. The Seahawks want to grind it out on the ground. But as stated, Arizona is excellent against the run. Arizona has been outstanding as an underdog, holding teams to 19.2 ppg the last 18 times when getting points. The Cardinals have protected home field well, going 7-0 SU in 2014, while covering six straight. I'm grabbing the points with the Cardinals my Sunday Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. Tough spot for the Bills who're off a home win over Green Bay and have a date at New England next weekend. In fact, take it a step further and they played in Denver two weeks ago. This one has prime letdown potential written all over it. The Bills lead the NFL in sacks with 49, but have just one in their last two games, combined, in 62 pass attempts. The offense wasn't good last week, gaining just 253 yards on 4 yards per play and 15 of their 21 points came on drives of 19 plays for 67 yards, along with a safety. Oakland is 2-2 SU in their last four games and have played better, relatively speaking, in three of their last five games, overall. The last two times on this field, the Raiders beat the 49ers and the Chiefs, holding those teams to 280 yards per game on just 4.75 yards per play, allowing just 33 points, combined. Oakland enters on a 5-1 ATS run off a spread loss, while the Bills are 6-15-1 ATS off a SU win. Buffalo faced a Green Bay team in a very tough spot last weekend and took advantage. But this week, the Bills are the team in the tough spot, and we'll grab the points with the Oakland Raiders, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Saints have dropped four straight games at home, but we feel they're going to bounce back by margin in this one with most folks having jumped ship. Drew Brees has led his team to a 7-1 mark in their last eight home games against the Falcons and should find little resistance on Sunday. He owns a 103.8 passer rating in those eight games. Atlanta is dead-last in the league in sacks with just 16 in 14 games. The lack of a pass rush gives Brees and the Saints' offense plenty of time to pick apart the Falcon defense. The Atlanta offense certainly did the job in the first meeting, ending in a 37-34 Falcon win at home. But with the exception of the Green Bay contest, the offense has been nothing special on the road. We should note, the game against the Packers may have had as much to do with Green Bay dialing it down a bit after building a 31-7 lead as it did anything else. The Falcons covered just one of their previous six road games before the game with the Packers, averaging just 18.5 ppg. In fact, in three road games before the Green Bay game, Atlanta averaged just 307.3 yards per game on 4.63 yards per play. The home team is on a 6-0 ATS run in this series and Atlanta is on a 0-7 ATS slide after gaining 6 or more yards per play in two straight games. It's tough to keep that kind of momentum going for some teams, including the Falcons. I'm laying the points with the Saints, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Saturday. The tough season for the 49ers is drawing to a close with this game and next week's. There will be no postseason for SFO and likely a new HC for next season. Besides the on-field disappointments, there has been a bus-load of drama, more than any two teams should suffer, let alone one team. The 49ers are also off the loss to Seattle, a game that saw SFO give it their absolute all, only to come up short in a hard-fought battle. We all know just how poorly teams have played the week following a game against the Seahawks and the Niners are in that spot this week. The Chargers can still make the playoffs, although they need a lot of help. But it all starts with the need to win their final two games and I believe they're catching the right opponent at the perfect time. Both teams have some bumps and bruises, but we feel the Chargers will overcome their's. They'll face a Niner offense that has scored a grand total of 23 points in their last three games combined, and have scored 17 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games. They are on a 0-3-1 ATS slide in their last four games, while the Chargers, off a 22-10 loss are on a 6-1 ATS run off a double-digit home defeat. I'm backing the SDG Chargers plus the points, my Saturday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the 49ers on Sunday. Last ditch effort for the 49ers this weekend. Yes, the offense has bogged down at times and yes, the Seattle defense has found its swagger again with the return of Bobby Wagner. But the Seattle offense relies on the run, while the pass offense ranks 29th. San Francisco's defense is still playing well. The Niners are 4th against the pass and 7th against the run, ranked 3rd in total yards allowed per game. I do believe they'll make life tough on Russell Wilson and company. Aldon Smith has six sacks in his last six games against the Seahawks, Aaron Lynch is getting to opposing QBs in a consistent manner, and Chris Borland has been a monster averaging 13 tackles per game in his last seven outings. I do believe the 49ers' defense will rise to the occasion. Meanwhile, I expect a big game from WR Michael Crabtree when the Seahawks over compensate for Anquan Boldin. The Niners are on a 12-5 ATS run on the road and they're 25-12-2 ATS off a SU loss. And we should note that NFL non-favorites are on a 31-9 ATS run if they're off a loss as a road favorite, provided they're playing between .510 & .600 football on the season. SFO fits the bill. I'm grabbing the points with Seattle, my Sunday Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Falcons on Sunday. Let's get this out of the way...Julio Jones may not play on Sunday, currently listed as questionable with a hip injury. But as we all have seen time-and-time again, when a star player misses a game (if Jones does) others take up the slack for at least one game. Not only does ATL have the players to do so on the offensive end, but they'll face a Pittsburgh secondary that leaves a lot to be desired. And of course, if Jones suits-up, great. The Steelers rank 24th against the pass and allow almost 25 ppg. The offense has performed well, but overall, the Steelers have been wildly inconsistent with a defense that allows over 6 yards per play. Pittsburgh has been horrible in the situation they're in today, just 5-20-1 ATS on the road against teams with a losing record. At the same time, the Falcons have played well after allowing over 6 yards per play in their previous two games, turning things around quickly and covering nine straight (9-0 ATS) over the last two seasons. I played on the Steelers last weekend, I'm going against them this week. I'm taking the points with the Falcons, my DogPound release on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Colts on Sunday. It's back to reality for the Texans in this one in my opinion. Houston has won back-to-back games, but the opponents were the Jaguars and Titans. In fact, Houston's only wins against halfway decent opposition came against Buffalo and Cleveland. The Colts won the first meeting 33-28 in Houston. The game wasn't as close as the final score would indicate when you take into account Indy ran 79 plays to 47 for Houston. The Colts led 24-0 after the first quarter of play and 14 of Houston's 28 points were scored on a 26-yard TD drive and a J.J. Watt INT return for a TD. Back home, Andrew Luck and the Colts passing game ought to have little trouble with the NFL's 28th-ranked pass defense. Offensively, Houston is one-dimensional, ranked 4th on the ground, but just 24th passing the football. That aerial game may be even worse this week if Andre Johnson (concussion) can't play (questionable). Indy enters on a 20-6 ATS run at home. They're 9-1 ATS at home the last three seasons against teams that allow at least 235 yards passing per game. Meanwhile, in the second half of the season, Houston has covered just 2-of-12 on the road against offenses that gain at least 5.65 yards per play. I'm laying the points with the Colts, my NFL Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Eagles, my Smackdown on Sunday. We played Seattle each of the last two weeks and won both times, by identical 19-3 scores. The offense has scored a grand total of just 58 points over their last three games, unable to find a legitimate passing game week-in, week-out. I do believe they'll be hurt by the lack of a passing attack in this week's game. Seattle enters on a 5-1 SU run and the defense has been posting nice numbers. However, take a look at the opponents. The Seahawks have played the offensive "attacks" of Carolina, Oakland, the Giants, Kansas City, Arizona without Palmer at QB, and the 49ers. This will mark the first time in nearly two months the Seahawks' defense has faced an offense currently ranked higher than 15th in the league in total yards per game. Not only do I expect the Eagles to find offensive success, but their own defense has improved since early in the season. And thanks to Seattle's 5-1 run we're getting value with the Eagles, as far as I'm concerned. Philly enters on a perfect 4-0 ATS run at home, while the Seahawks have covered just 14 of their last 44 off a win by more than 14 points. I'm laying the points with the Eagles, my Sunday Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. We cashed with the Browns two weeks ago and stayed away last weekend. What we learned is that Cleveland isn't ready to win back-to-back road games. Brian Hoyer is expected to start at QB and all he has done is position the Browns for a possible playoff spot with a 7-5 mark. After the poor performance last weekend, the Browns can regroup against a Colts' team that's weak up front on the offensive line and spends too little time on the ground game. It works well for the Browns because their defense is actually stronger (8th) against the pass. Then there's the Colts' defense that's near the bottom of the league in pass defense and 22nd in total yards allowed per game. I do believe the Browns own the "goods" to take advantage on both sides of the line and come away with the outright upset. The Browns are on a 4-0 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record and we'll back them again. I'm taking the points with Cleveland, my Sunday DogPound release (in the Dawg Pound). Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. We've played against the Bengals a few times this season, cashing tickets with New England, Cleveland, and last week with Tampa Bay. Once again, we will play against a Bengals' squad that isn't as good as their record. Cincy has won five of six and they have handled Baltimore. But toss aside wins over the Ravens and their other six wins came against teams with a combined record of 18-49 SU. Andy Dalton looks like nothing more than a glorified backup QB at times. Marvin Lewis is a head-scratcher in about half of his game plans. The offense is missing OLT Andre Smith (IR), he's been out for a couple of weeks. The defense rarely gets to the opposing QB, currently at the bottom of the league with a 3.2% sack percentage. The Bengals are also 25th against the run and 21st in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. We believe Pittsburgh, off the loss last week, will be focused and well equipped to take advantage. And yes, while Cincy owns the strong home numbers, that fact has been baked into the line. Pittsburgh is on a 5-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 trips to the Queen City. I'm taking the points with the Steelers, my Sunday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Jets on Monday night. The Jets were thoroughly embarrassed last Monday, but we expect a bounce-back in this one. Geno Smith is back as starter behind center, which matters little to me. I would have played the Jets in this spot whether Geno or Michael Vick got the nod. But HC Rex Ryan named Smith the starter on Wednesday morning after Vick had a horrible Monday night performance against Buffalo, while Smith entered in the third quarter and completed 10-of-12 passes. Miami, at 6-5, needs a win to stay in the thick of things in the AFC playoff picture with six non-division leaders owning records of 7-5 or better. The problem for Miami is that they're expected to win by margin in this one and they're facing a Jets' team that has done one thing well...covering 5 of their last 6 after getting out-gained by at least 100 yards in their previous games. Many NFL teams have fared well ATS off a horrible performance and we expect the Jets to play with intensity in this one. Miami also might still be licking their wounds after blowing a 28-17 lead in Denver. The Dolphins led by 11 points after three quarters, but allowed 22 consecutive points in a 39-36 heart-breaking loss. Miami will also be facing an underrated Jets' defense that entered week-13 ranked 7th in total yards allowed per game (328.8). At the same time, the Dolphins allowed Denver to run for 201 yards in last week's loss. With Geno behind center, I do believe New York will be able to run the football in this one and let their defense keep it close. The Jets are averaging over 136 yards rushing per game. We should note that NFL non-favorites are on a 57-26 ATS run if they average no more than 17 ppg, provided they allowed at least 35 points in their previous game. These teams are obviously under-valued by the public the week off the bad performance and it's reflected in the line. Miami was a 1 1/2 point favorite the last time they faced the Jets at this venue. They're a a 7-point favorite at the time of this release. I'm grabbing the points with the Jets, my MNF Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the Buccaneers on Sunday. It's not often when an underdog gets stamped with Smackdown status, but at the same time, this isn't the first time and we did win with our previous underdog Smackdown on New Orleans in mid-October. Just like in that one we feel we have strong reasons to back the this dog on Sunday. The Bengals are playing their third straight road game and have a date with Pittsburgh up next. Cincy's 2-game winning streak leading into this game came against New Orleans and Houston and five of their wins came against teams with a combined record of 16-39 SU. You could say the Buccs fall into that class, but they're not that far from a 6-5 record. Several close losses in regulation (including last week's) and a couple of OT losses have left us with value on the home team. Speaking of last week's loss to Chicago, the Buccaneers had their chances. Tampa Bay led 10-7 with 5 minutes left in the third quarter. They held Chicago to 12 first downs and out-gained the Bears 367-204! But they couldn't overcome four turnovers. So, here they are at 2-9, but with something to play for. The Buccs are just two games out of first in the NFC South. We believe they'll give their best effort and they're facing an over-valued Bengals' squad. Cincy will be missing OLT Andre Smith. Defensively, they don't get much pressure on opposing QBs, currently dead-last in the league in sack percentage (3.2%) and now they'll face an improving passing attack, thanks in part to the "arrival" of WR Mike Evans. The Bengals also rank just 27th against the run and 24th in total yards allowed per game. Tampa Bay enters on a 22-8-1 ATS November run. Much of that has to do with the same situation we have in this one. The Buccs are normally faced with a losing season by November, which gives them value ATS. I'm taking the points with the Buccaneers, my Sunday Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night. We have heard all week how important this game is for the 49ers, since they have to play in Seattle on December 14. We have also heard that Seattle expects to be without center Max Unger. But what most haven't said is that San Francisco is banged-up on defense. Quentin Dial will have to start at NT again this week with two other NT's injured. The depth chart is also being tested in the secondary and at LB with more injuries to overcome. The 49ers are also getting a lot of notice for their current three-game winning streak, which followed losses to Denver and St. Louis. The three wins came against New Orleans (in overtime), the Giants (by 6), and last weekend's 17-13 win over Washington. The offense has not been impressive and the three opponents are not exactly tearing up the NFL. Even the OT win over the Saints doesn't look too impressive after New Orleans has dropped three straight home games. While they'll need to, I don't believe SFO will get to Russell Wilson, after all, few defenses do. Meanwhile, Seattle's defense ranks 6th against the run, 3rd against the pass, and #1 in total yards allowed per game. Last week they were able to switch back to a 4-man rush with tight coverage, which forces QBs to hold onto the football longer than normal. As you can surmise, I am grabbing any available points with the Seahawks, who're on a 16-6 ATS run against teams with a winning record and a 5-0 ATS run in this series. Seattle, plus the points, my Thursday Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the New Orleans Saints on Monday night. If the Saints are going to take back home field, tonight's opposing defense may provide "just what the doctor ordered." You can throw the football on the Baltimore Ravens' defense. They're not the worst in the league, but certainly nothing to write home about, allowing over 250 yards passing per game, ranking 22nd in the NFL. The Ravens allowed 70 points in their last two road games, combined, both ending in losses. Brees completed 33-of-41 passes last week, but the Saints came up on the wrong side of a 27-10 final score against the Bengals. Despite scoring just 10 points, the Saints' offense is still one of the better units in the league, ranking 2nd in the league in total yards per game, and in the top-9 in scoring, yards rushing, and yards passing per contest. One of the recent downfalls has been lack of execution when nearing the endzone. Saints' TE Jimmy Graham went into week-12 as the NFL's 3rd most targeted receiver in the red-zone in the entire league. Having said that, the Saints didn't throw to him a single time in the red-zone against the Bengals. I'll bet that changes tonight. And finally, Joe Flacco is mired in a bit of a slump, throwing as many INTs (5) as TD passes over his last four games. Look for New Orleans to get back to the fundamentals of what makes them tick. The Saints are on a 25-9 ATS run in their last 34 home games, while Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games. I'm laying the points with the Saints as I expect them to win their 7th straight MNF contest with Drew Brees at the helm. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.