*3 Star NBA Situational Spot CRUSHER* The Cleveland Cavs haven't been playing very well of late in general, but they actually looked like they might grab a win in Houston before losing a close one in their last game.

LeBron James and company weren't happy at all after that last loss, and I feel this is a good chance for them to bounce back.

Detroit has beaten Cleveland in back to back games. The Pistons have been a good team at home this year, but on the road they have been terrible. Detroit is just 11-21 straight up on the road, and they are 12-20 ATS away from home.

The Pistons have shot the ball better from 3 than the Cavs in their last two meetings. Detroit is one of the four worst teams in the NBA from beyond the arc. The Cavs are number two in the NBA in 3 point percentage.

Cleveland gets to go home and get a shot at quick revenge against a weak team. This is a good spot to lay the points.

Take Cleveland. 

*4 Star NBA Monday MONEY* The Milwaukee Bucks have drastically slowed down their tempo of late. Milwaukee is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last ten games. 

The Bucks also rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the last ten games. Milwaukee has been putting in a lot more of an effort on the defensive end, and that has led to their much better play of late.

Memphis ranks as the sixth best defense in the NBA for the year as a whole when it comes to defensive efficiency. In their last few games, Memphis has been bad defensively. Who they have played has something to do with it though (Houston and LAC for example). The Grizzlies rank as the third slowest paced team in the NBA for the year as a whole.

I think Memphis brings better effort in this one after a recent bad stretch. This game should be played at a slow pace. The early sharp money is on the under.

The under is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS win. The under is 10-1-1 in the last 12 meetings between these teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Miami Heat have relied on point guard Goran Dragic very heavily this year. Dragic is questionable for this game with an eye injury. Dragic had extreme swelling around his eye last night. He will likely either miss this game, or be less than 100 percent. 

Indiana has completely changed the way they play of late. They ranked as one of the top ten in tempo through the first few months of the year. Of late, the Pacers have slowed the game down a lot. The oddsmakers have had a hard time adjusting their totals.

Miami and Indiana are both moving slowly of late, in fact. In their last five contests, Miami ranks 25th in tempo and Indiana ranks 27th. In that same period, both of these teams rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

I think this total is several points too high.

The under is 4-0 in the Heat's last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 following a win by 10 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the Pacers last 4 vs. the NBA Southeast. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Play GAME of the MONTH* The Washington Wizards are playing their 3rd game in four days and 5th game in 7 days here. It was going to be a bad spot regardless, but it got even tougher when they needed a huge comeback to win last night in Sacramento. That game went into overtime, so Washington has really put a bunch of effort in the last few nights.

Before their win last night over Sacramento in overtime, Washington had to play in Denver. The altitude in Denver takes a lot out of a team. In the Wizards last four wins, they have needed fourth quarter comebacks to win. 

Portland has played only two games in the last six days. The Blazers are very well rested, and they have been playing much better of late. 

I did a database run on fading a team playing 3 games in 4 nights versus a team that has played 2 games in six days. The results are really impressive. The better rested team is 119-75 ATS in the last 194 spots like this. 

Washington is a good team, but they are 14-15 away from home. Portland has a great homecourt advantage and the Blazers are in an excellent spot here against a tired Washington team. 

Take Portland big. 

NBA Game of the MONTH

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers meet in a divisional battle on Friday night in Milwaukee. 

For the year as a whole, Indiana ranks at exactly the midway point for NBA teams in terms of tempo. The Pacers ranked in the top ten for several months. They have changed their ways of late. Indiana now ranks as one of the five slowest teams in the league in their last 10 games. 

Milwaukee is actually playing at the single slowest pace of any team in the league in their last eight games. 

A total set this high with teams playing that slow means you have to have some great shooting numbers to get over the total. In the last eight games, both of these teams rank in the top 12 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

The last game between these two finished at 216 points, but the teams combined to make 27 three pointers and Milwaukee was 17/31 from 3.

With both teams playing better on defense of late, and playing some more defense, I think this one stays lower.

The under is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more last game. A 32-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Situational Spot SMASHER* The Cleveland Cavs are coming off back to back losses. That isn't something you can say very often. I think that means we'll see a spirited effort from the Cavs tonight. 

Detroit also beat Cleveland in the last game between these two. The Pistons were 16/28 from 3 point range in that game. For the year, Detroit is 27th in the NBA with a 33.3% success rate on three point attempts. 

Cleveland is playing with revenge from that loss, and that is key as well. Good teams on the road in a revenge spot have covered at better than 56% ATS in the last ten years. 

Detroit is playing the second end of a back to back, which doesn't help their cause. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playing on zero days of rest. The Cavs are on 2 days of rest, where they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 situations.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Sacramento Kings are one of the worst teams in the NBA now. They are definitely one of the bottom three in the league. Sacramento is a mess without Cousins and without Rudy Gay healthy. 

Sacramento played really hard last night and should have won against a good Utah team. The Kings ended up going into overtime and losing on a buzzer beating tip in by Rudy Gobert. That's a hard loss to recover from when you know you aren't going to win many games.

Denver has a huge homecourt advantage with the altitude playing a big role. The Kings come in here on a back to back and even worse it was an overtime game. 

Additionally, Denver played their worst game recently on the road in Sacramento right after the break, and the Nuggets lost 116-100. This is a good revenge spot. 

I would like to lay less than 13 here, but the oddsmakers understand how bad Sacramento is at this point. Still, it is a great spot situationally to fade the Kings.

Take Denver. 

*4 Star NBA Super System MONEYMAKER* The Milwaukee Bucks are in a great spot here. Philadelphia is playing their fourth game in six days, and injuries are a major problem for the 76ers right now. Gerald Henderson averages 10 points per game and he is questionable with a hip injury. Joel Embiid is obviously out for this game as well.

Milwaukee is playing better of late. Khris Middleton is back on the floor and I think him getting healthy makes this team much better. The Bucks have been unlucky so far this year according to almost every advanced metric.

I have a great system that backs this play strongly. The system is to play on a road favorite who has covered 44% or their games or less for the season. The angle gets even stronger when their opponent has covered 55% of their games or higher. In this case, Milwaukee has covered 40% of their games and the 76ers have covered 61% of their games. This system is hitting at 65% ATS since the start of 2009. 

Add in the fact that Milwaukee is playing with double revenge here, and we should get a very motivated Milwaukee team. Lay the small number.

Take Milwaukee. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a terrible defensive effort against the Cleveland Cavs on Friday night. Cleveland set a new NBA record with 25 made three pointers in that game (out of 46 attempts). 

The Hawks have been an up and down defense this year, but they have the talent to defend well. I think that 135 point number that the Cavs dropped on them will help them be more motivated on the defensive end in this game.

Indiana has to decided to slow down the pace of late. The Pacers are in the bottom five in the league in tempo in their last eight games. 

Sunday early games have been great under plays in the long term in the NBA. This is an angle that sits at almost 56% for the last ten years. 

The under is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more.

The under is 4-0 in the Hawks last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 following a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more last game.

In all, a 31-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star TGIF NBA Red HOT CASH* The Atlanta Hawks have been really inconsistent this year. Atlanta is coming off two nice wins including a win at Boston, and I'm not sure they can be trusted to deliver another strong performance here. Atlanta hasn't won three consecutive games since two months ago.

Cleveland enters off a loss at home. Additionally, the Cavs lost at home earlier this year to Atlanta. There is every reason to expect the Cavs to come out fired up for this game. Kyle Korver goes back to Atlanta, and Korver has been shooting the ball really well of late. 

This fits a nice road revenge angle that has hit 56% long-term as well as a good team off one loss angle that sits at 58% long-term.

Atlanta is coming off a game where they shot 56.1% from the floor. They should regress toward the mean here and against a motivated Cleveland team, I think that suggests the Cavs will cover.

Take Cleveland.  

*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Toronto Raptors aren't the same without Kyle Lowry. They are playing at the second slowest tempo in the league in their last five games. Toronto has scored 94 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. 

Toronto and Washington both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. They rank 14th and 16th in offensive efficiency. 

I think the oddsmakers are having a hard time adjusting the totals without Lowry in the lineup for Toronto. Their last game against New York was just 92-91.

The first meeting between these two teams this year finished at 216 points. Note that Lowry had 18 points there. Also, the two teams shot 56% and 58% from the floor. They shouldn't shoot it that well here.

The under is 11-1 in Toronto's last 12 vs. the Eastern Conference.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Oddsmaker ERROR* I think the oddsmakers are too high on the Sacramento Kings right now. This is a really bad team. They traded away DeMarcus Cousins. Rudy Gay is hurt. There are no stars, or guys who are even close to stars, left on the team. 

I see Minnesota as a quality team that has had some rough luck this year. Advanced metrics largely agree with that, and the Timberwolves are definitely better than their record. Karl-Anthony Towns is the best player on the floor here by a mile. Andrew Wiggins is playing really well of late also. 

This is also a good spot to play the road team with revenge. In fact, they have double revenge. In this spot when a team has double revenge and is favored on the road, they have covered 59% of the time in the last ten years. That's a great long term angle.

The talent differential is huge here, and the Timberwolves are well rested.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Toronto Raptors are going to look a lot different without Kyle Lowry on the floor. Toronto has been slowing down the pace lately even with Lowry, and I think they'll slow the game down even more without him. Lowry means so much to this team, and it would surprise me if they don't need some adjusting on offense without him.

Toronto has played at the single slowest tempo of anyone in the NBA in their last five games. That's an important statistic, and it means that a total like 213 is awfully high, especially when they are missing their point guard.

Portland's tempo is slightly slower than the league average, so there's no reason to expect any really fast pace in this game. 

This should be a game played in the halfcourt. Additionally, Sunday has been the best under day in the NBA in the long term by a large margin. 

I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star TGIF NBA Play of Day* In the last three games before the NBA All Star Break, the Phoenix Suns played at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA by a wide margin. I don't see any reason to expect them to slow down after the break.

The Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. These are two teams who are really struggling on the defensive end. 

Jimmy Butler is healthier now than he was the last time these two teams met. Dwyane Wade has been cleared to play, and he is expected to play in this game. 

The first game out of the All Star Break the over has cashed at better than 60% in the past three seasons. I look for the rested legs to help the shooting numbers here.

The last game between these two got to 212, and there were less free throws than normal. All things considered, I think this line is a little too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Detroit Pistons have decided to play faster as of late. For the season, they rank in the bottom five in tempo in the NBA. In their last ten games, they are playing at almost exactly the league average in pace. 

Charlotte is playing faster as well. They are in the top ten in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. Charlotte's offense has been really inefficient of late, but I expect the All Star Break to have helped them out here.

In the last three years, the over is hitting at 60.6% in team's first game back from the NBA All Star break. It makes sense to me. No defense is played at the All Star Game, and that has some follow through. Additionally, the players are better rested and that helps bring higher shooting percentages.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star NBA System POWER Play* The Orlando Magic scored 79 points in their final game before the NBA All Star break. That sets up a really nice system play on the over in this game. 

Teams who are at home and scored 80 points or less in their last game and went under the total in that game, are a good over play in the next game. When that next game is a non-divisional game as this one is, the over is 162-100 in the last ten years (61.8% overs). 

Essentially, this is a system that looks to play overs when a team is coming off a terrible offensive effort. It doesn't hurt that both of these teams rank in the bottom six in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games either.

In the last three years, the over is hitting at 60.6% in team's first game back from the NBA All Star break as well. It makes sense to me. No defense is played at the All Star Game, and that has some follow through. Additionally, the players are better rested and that helps bring higher shooting percentages.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SLAM Dunk* The Washington Wizards are playing with all sorts of confidence right now. Washington has won 10 of their last 11 games. Their only loss during that period was an overtime loss to the Cavs. 

Indiana has lost five straight games. The Pacers have played last night in Cleveland and traveled back late last night. 

Washington has had two days off before this game. The Wizards certainly want to finish the first half of the season on a high note, and they are the much better rested team.

Washington has played only 4 games in the last 10 days. The Pacers have played 6 games in their last 10 days. On the occasion that a team has played 4 games in 10 days while the other has played 6 in 10 days, when the road team is favored by 4 points or less, the road team is a whopping 43-19 ATS in the last 62 occurrences. 

The Pacers are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 34 games when playing on zero days of rest. Washington is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 in Indiana. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last playing on 2 days of rest. 

There are a couple strong angles and a system here backing the Wizards, and I'll lay the two points. 

Take Washington. 

*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The San Antonio Spurs are playing with revenge from a surprising defeat at the hands of the Orlando Magic earlier this year. Though I do lean with the Spurs ATS here, I like the under better. 

San Antonio is easily first in the NBA in the past eight games in defensive efficiency. This team is playing some terrific defense right now. 

Orlando's offense ranks among the worst in the NBA in efficiency. The Magic have been much more efficient on the defensive end at home as well. 

Neither team likes to run, and the tempo here should stay much slower than an average NBA game. 

Over the years, when the Spurs are playing with revenge, the under has been a great play. The Spurs typically win and get their revenge by focusing on the defensive end of the floor. 

An important reason why I like this play is regression to the mean for the Magic in 3 point shooting numbers. Orlando shot 57% from long range last game and now they face a very good defense.

The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a straight up win. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 19-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Charlotte Hornets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games. Why would I be interested in backing them here? I think it is a buy low opportunity for this team. Charlotte catches a Philadelphia 76ers team that I believe is in a difficult spot here.

Philadelphia is coming off back to back upset wins over Orlando and Miami. The 76ers are feeling pretty good about themselves after stopping Miami's long winning streak. Philadelphia will be without Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor in this game. 

The 76ers have been great against the spread this year, but that great ATS record has been all about covering at home. The Sixers are 20-9 ATS at home and 12-13 ATS on the road.

The public will be on the underdog here, and I like fading a team that is a public underdog. Charlotte is also playing with revenge after losing big as a favorite against Philadelphia in their first meeting this year. 

I'll lay the points with the Hornets at home.

Take Charlotte. 

*3 Star NBA Friday Night MONEY* The Golden State Warriors have lost two straight games against the Memphis Grizzlies. Golden State has been great in revenge spots in the past, and I'm going to back them again here. Golden State lost 110-89 the last time they came to Memphis. The Warriors then blew a 24 point lead against the Grizzlies at home on January 6. You better believe they remember that game well.

Memphis isn't at full strength now either. The Grizzlies will probably have Zach Randolph on the floor here, but he is definitely less than 100 percent. Chandler Parsons will miss this game. You need all hands on deck when playing a motivated Golden State team.

In the past 10 years in the NBA, when a team that has won 67% or more of their games on the season is playing with revenge, they have covered the spread 59% of the time. 

Golden State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. 

Take Golden State here. 

*4 Star NBA on TNT CASH* The Boston Celtics played a really bad game last night in Sacramento. That makes me like them a lot more in this game. Boston is a resilient team. The Celtics are also 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 road games. They are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

This game fits nicely into a long-term winning system. It is a system that places a good team (55% or more of the time they have won straight up) on the road and coming off a blowout loss. When they are on the road again in their next game, that team has covered 58% of the time in the past ten years. 

Portland will be without Evan Turner here, and he has been giving them some good minutes in recent weeks.

Boston is also a very impressive 42-17-1 ATS in their last 60 games when playing on zero days of rest. Look for a bounce back effort from Boston here.

Take Boston. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past ten games. The Clippers are giving up 119 points per game in their last seven road games.

For the year as a whole, the Clippers are allowing 1.012 points per possession at home. They are allowing a stunning 1.097 points per possession on the road. That's one of the biggest differences in the NBA.

The Knicks are a mess right now. New York is actually slightly worse on defense at home than on the road. They are much more efficient on offense at home though. 

These teams both rank in the middle of the pack in tempo, but I see the offensive efficiencies being very high here.

The over is 6-1 in the Clippers last 7 games. The over is 18-9 in their 27 road games this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Houston Rockets offense ranks 17th in the NBA in efficiency in the past eight games. They are obviously better than that, but the Rockets have hit a rough patch here in the middle of the season. Houston's defense still isn't any good, and that has put them in a lot of close games.

What about the Orlando Magic? Orlando isn't a good team, but they have been an odd team in that they have played their best basketball both on the road and against very good teams. Orlando is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage.

Houston is playing on 3 days of rest here, but the Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 in that spot. Houston is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 following a straight up win. They are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference.

Orlando is coming off a blowout, and I'm tracking a system where the road team that is blown out that is once again on the road in their next game has covered the spread almost 60% of the time in the last six years.

Take Orlando and the points. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Phoenix Suns have been a fiesty team this year. They have been left for dead several teams, and they have generally fought back and played well. Phoenix is coming off a blowout loss at home to Milwaukee, which sets this one up nicely. 

Phoenix is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a double digit loss at home. They are a whopping 48-23-3 ATS in their last 74 games following a double digit loss. The Suns are also 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 following an ATS loss.

The Pelicans are a really inconsistent team. I like to fade inconsistent teams that are laying points. Anthony Davis injured himself last game. Davis is expected to play through it tonight, but any injury to Davis is a big blow to this team.

The public is all over the Pelicans here, which has pushed this number up. 

I'll grab the six points on the road underdog. Take Phoenix. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Boston Celtics have been a bad home favorite this year. While the Celtics are 15-7-2 ATS on the road, they are only 11-14 ATS at home. 

More importantly, Boston has been favored by 8 or more points at home six times this year, and they are 0-6 ATS in those games. 

The Lakers aren't an easy team to back, but they do hold value in a spot like this. I have a long-term system that is hitting 60.1% that likes this play. The main part of the system is fading a home favorite of double digits when they are playing their 6th or 7th game in 10 days. The thinking here is that home favorite just wants to get the job done and get a win, not cover the big spread. The record is 202-134 ATS in the last 336 times this situation came up.

We'll take the ugly dog to keep things closer than expected here. 

Take the Lakers. 

*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks both play at a very slow pace. Utah is the slowest paced team in the NBA for the year as a whole. Milwaukee plays more than 3 possessions slower on the road than they do at home, and Utah will look to control the tempo here. No reason to expect a quick pace.

The three referees assigned to this game are all very good long term under referees. Each of them has a history of calling less fouls than the average official, and they all have a long history in the league.

62% of the bets are on the under, but a whopping 90% of the money is on the under. I agree with the sharp money here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Miami Heat shouldn't be favored by 9.5 points over anyone in the NBA. I know the Brooklyn Nets are a bad team, but this is about taking 9.5 points against a team that has been red hot of late, but they are now getting too much love from the oddsmakers.

Oddsmakers are rushing to upgrade Miami because of their recent run, but if you look at Miami's roster and the talent level, there isn't a big difference from Brooklyn. In a case like this, I think we are finding a sell high opportunity on the Heat.

Miami is coming off several wins over very good teams. If there was ever going to be a letdown spot for a team like Miami, this is the time. Miami could easily overlook a team like Brooklyn and assume they can coast to a win. Brooklyn is 11-10 ATS on the road this year, and the Nets offense has been much better of late.

Take the points.

Take Brooklyn. 

*3 Star Cavs/Thunder NBA MONEY* The Cleveland Cavs and Oklahoma City Thunder meet on Sunday afternoon on ABC. Sunday day games have hit at 55% to the under in the past ten years in the NBA. Yesterday, every single game on the NBA schedule went over the posted total. 

Oklahoma City is now without Enes Kanter who is out with an injury. Kanter has been a consistent double digit scorer for the team, and his loss has to hurt the offense. Russell Westbrook already has to do a lot for the Thunder on offense, and now his load gets even heavier.

The under is a stunning 78-34-3 in Cleveland's last 115 Sunday games, so they have been one of the strongest Sunday under teams. 

With a total set this high, and OKC having question marks on offense without Kanter, I'm taking the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Atlanta Hawks host the New York Knicks in a Sunday afternoon game. Atlanta is 8-2 to the under in their last 10 Sunday games. New York is 19-7 to the under in their last 26 games. Sunday has consistently been the best under day in the NBA in the past ten years, and that has been the case again this year.

Yesterday, every single NBA game that was played went over the posted total. That kind of thing usually leads to some value on the under in the following day or days. 

The Knicks are likely to be without Derrick Rose in this one. New York is playing at the 25th fastest tempo in the NBA, which means a total set this high is hard for them to reach without some great offense.

Atlanta's defense is slightly better at home and the Knicks have actually been better on the road on the defensive end.

Take the under. 

*3 NBA Red HOT CASH* The Golden State Warriors are coming off an unexpected loss at Miami two days ago. Golden State certainly isn't accustomed to losing, and I think they'll show up more focused in this one.

Every team has bad nights. Even teams that are NBA Champions are going to throw in some clunkers. The Warriors defense let them down against Miami as Dion Waiters torched them time after time. Steve Kerr's team has the best defensive efficiency in the league for the year overall, and they should be much better here.

Charlotte has three key players listed as questionable for this game. Cody Zeller, Frank Kaminsky, and Jeremy Lamb are all questionable.

The Hornets have been blown out at home by the Cavs and the Grizzlies at home this year. 

This game fits a nice system. It is backing a road favorite that is coming off a loss and they are playing against a team that is either on a one game winning or losing streak. This system hasn't had a losing season in the past 10 years, and it is 60.2% during that span.

Golden State bounces back. Take the Warriors. 

*3 Star NBA ATS Play of Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder have had four days in between games. They were blasted by Golden State in the second half of Thursday night's game after being tied at halftime. Oklahoma City had plenty of time to think about that one, and I think they are in a good spot here.

They were blown out last game, and there is a 58% ATS covering system on good teams (55% wins or more) that are blown out and then play their next game on the road. It becomes 60% when you factor in that the opposition has covered their last game. In this case, Utah has won six straight games straight up, and they are due for some regression.

Utah blew out OKC earlier this year thanks to 13/23 shooting from 3 point land. Rodney Hood was their leading scorer in that game and he is injured now. 

Oklahoma City is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by double digits. Utah is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following a straight up win.

Take Oklahoma City. 

*3 Star Play Under* Historically, Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. That's a pretty decent edge, and when you combine it with other factors, I like this under.

Phoenix was playing at the fastest pace in the NBA for a while, but they have drastically changed the way they play of late. The Suns rank 27th in the league (4th slowest) in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. Some high shooting numbers have allowed 5 of the 10 to go over, but I see this as giving us extra value on the under.

A total set this high is hard to attain when one team is slowing the game down.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* Historically, Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. 

The under is 7-0 in Dallas' last 7 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the Lakers and the Mavericks. 

The Lakers have been a great over team at home, but they are even on the road in over/unders. Dallas is playing at the slowest tempo of any team in the NBA in the past ten games. The Mavericks are also last in the NBA in trips to the free throw line. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Golden State Warriors are coming off their big revenge win over the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Golden State has been extremely motivated for multiple games this week. This is a spot where they might be less motivated to kill the Magic.

Instead of taking Orlando though, I'm taking the under. Golden State's defense has been much better of late. Golden State now leads the NBA in defensive efficiency. Yes, the Warriors can pile up the points, but they can play defense as well. 

Orlando is middle of the pack in defensive efficiency, and they are subpar in offensive efficiency. 

Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. That's a pretty decent edge, and when you combine it with other factors, I like this under.

The under is a perfect 4-0 in Golden State's 4 road games on Sunday this year. The under is 3-0 in their 3 games as a double digit road favorite on Sunday. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 19-0 angle. 

Take the under.

*3 Star NBA on ESPN CASH* The Los Angeles Lakers lost 115-108 in Indiana earlier this year. I think we see another very high scoring game (probably even higher than the first meeting) on Friday night in Los Angeles.

Indiana's home road splits are really interesting. The over is 11-10 in their home games this year. The over is 13-7 in their 20 road games this year. Why is that? Well, Indiana is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency when playing at home this year. On the road, Indiana ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 1.004 points per possession at home. They are giving up 1.111 points per possession on the road. That's a massive difference. 

In the last ten games, both the Pacers and the Lakers rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In that same period, both of these teams rank in the top 14 in offensive efficiency. 

The over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Warriors/Rockets ATS CASH* The Golden State Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They exacted revenge on the Cleveland Cavs in a big way earlier this week. They were in a sandwich spot against Oklahoma City and still dominated the Thunder in the second half of that game. Now, they go take on a Houston team that beat them at Oracle Arena in overtime earlier this year.

Houston has only lost 4 games at home this year, but the Rockets have beaten up on quite a few bad teams at home. They have lost both games at home against the Spurs. They lost by 5 last week to Memphis. They were blown out at home by Toronto earlier this year.

Golden State's problem this year has been with covering huge spreads, not with taking care of business against good teams. The Warriors beat Toronto on the road by 6. They beat Boston by 16 on the road. They beat the Clippers by 17 on the road. 

Teams playing with revenge fare much better ATS on the road, which might surprise you. About 55% of the time a team in the past 10 years an NBA team playing with revenge covers on the road. At home, the rate is almost exactly 50%. The Warriors make a statement here.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star NBA Thunder/Warriors ATS CASH* The Oklahoma City Thunder are getting a few too many points here. Golden State is coming off their beatdown of Cleveland. That was clearly a game the team put a massive effort in for, and Golden State plays at Houston in their next game. Houston also beat Golden State earlier this year.

Oklahoma City was crushed earlier this year by Golden State, and I think we'll see a much better effort from them tonight. 

The betting data here tells me a lot. Golden State is getting 73% of the bets tonight, but 53% of the money is on the Thunder. There is clearly a public/sharp split in this one, and I'll grab the points and side with the sharp players taking Oklahoma City.

Take the Thunder. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Phoenix Suns. San Antonio has historically been a great under bet in this situation. 

The Spurs have an elite defense, and when they are motivated, that defense looks even better. San Antonio ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. 

It may surprise you to hear that Minnesota ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Timberwolves are starting to buy into what Tom Thibodeau is selling them on that end of the floor.

Minnesota has slowed down their pace of play drastically as well. The Wolves are 28th in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. The Spurs are 26th. 

We have a total of 202.5 with two defenses playing great and with two teams who consistently slow the pace down.

I think the Spurs hold the Timberwolves to a low number here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Indiana Pacers are playing in their first game back from playing in London on January 12. That is a brutal trip for a team that is accustomed to playing a lot of games either at home or at least in the Eastern time zone in the United States. The body clock gets thrown off in a big way with that kind of trip. This is the perfect spot for them to be flat.

New Orleans has the number one ranked defense in terms of defensive efficiency in the past 8 games. They are only allowing 0.982 points per possession. The Pacers defense ranks 24th during that same time. The Pelicans are better than their record, and I think this is a good chance to back them.

There's also a strong system here of small underdogs going against the public have cashed at a better than 60% clip in the past 10 years.

Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Wizards host the Portland Blazers in an early tip game for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Washington and Portland both started the year by playing terribly on the defensive end. Things have looked better from them both defensively of late.

Washington is 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past nine games. Portland is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the NBA in the past 9 games. That's important because Washington is 18th and Portland is 27th on the season. Both teams have been putting more effort in on the defensive end.

These teams are a little above average offensively, but not elite. They both play just a tick faster than the average team in the NBA. 

A total of 220 is usually saved for games between teams that run like crazy and play almost no defense. I don't think that is the case here.

MLK Day early games have been solid under trends during the past ten years. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks meet early on Monday. These two teams have met twice this year and neither game has gotten even close to this posted total. The two games have been 198 and 200 (in overtime). 

This is an early start on MLK Day, which helps the under in my opinion. This is something that has shown to be true through the years. 

Atlanta ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency over the last eight games. The Knicks are in the middle of the pack. Both teams are middle of the pack or lower in offensive efficiency. Neither team is pushing the pace all that much.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Night SMASHER* The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a great spot here. Oklahoma City fits a 60.1% system where a road team that just lost is once again a road favorite. It is 249-165 ATS in the past 12 years. 

Oklahoma City has the more talented team, and I think they'll be very hungry in this one. Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, so they have fit into this type of system really well in the past.

Sacramento has been an up and down team all year. I don't think they can be trusted. Oklahoma City isn't a great team, but I feel like we can expect them to give a lot of effort on a nightly basis.

Oklahoma City is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record.

Take Oklahoma City to bounce back here. 

*3 Star NBA on ESPN MONEY* The Utah Jazz play at the slowest pace in the NBA. Utah also ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. That can lead to some really low scores from their opponent. 

Utah hosts Detroit here, and you have to think Detroit is likely out of gas. They are on a long West Coast swing. They were blown away late last night at Golden State. Earlier this week they won in overtime in a draining game at Portland. This is the type of game where Detroit might shut it down early.

How about a really strong NBA system for this one as well? The under is hitting a whopping 60% of the time when we have a home favorite of double digits that has won only 2 of their last 4 games? 

The system sits at 286-189 (60.2%) to the under. 

I think Utah wins and Detroit puts up a low enough point total for us to cash the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Underdog Special* The Orlando Magic are 7.5 point underdogs here because Portland just blew out Cleveland on national television. This line has been adjusted upward too much. 

Portland still had a very weird travel schedule of late, and even two days later that could hurt them a bit. The Blazers were only favored by 2 at home against the Kings, by 6.5 at home against the Lakers, by 3.5 at home against the Pistons, and now the line has been inflated to -7.5 against Orlando.

The Magic have covered 11 of 20 on the road this year. Orlando should be at full strength tonight with Ibaka expected back. 

Portland is only 7-19 ATS in their last 26 following a straight up win.

Take Orlando. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies met a few weeks ago and the posted total was 205.5. Memphis has been playing some higher scoring games of late, so the total did need adjusted upward some. Still, a move to 217 is just too big. 

Memphis still is one of the 4 slowest paced teams in the NBA. They also rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Houston is unquestionably very good on offense, but this line has been inflated too much.

The referees are great for the under in this one. Eric Dalen has been the best under referee in the NBA in the past five years. The under is 55.03% in all his games. James Williams is the second best under guy (54.47%) and both of them are doing this game.

Look for fewer foul calls and I'll take the under in this game.