*3 Star Play on Charlotte* The Charlotte Hornets are getting quite a few points tonight against the Dallas Mavericks, and I'm going to grab the points.

Dallas has been excellent as an underdog with Carlisle as their coach, but they haven't been good laying points. 

Dallas as a home favorite of 5.5 points or more in a non-division game is 124-159 ATS (43.8%) since 2005. 

The Mavericks are coming off an epic blowout of the LA Clippers in their last game, and they have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. Dallas plays Miami in their next game and one would think that is a game they are looking forward to more than this one.

Gordon Hayward should help make this Charlotte team slightly more competitive. Hayward is a good fit for this offense. In their games so far this year, Charlotte has been pretty good. They even upset the Brooklyn Nets in their last game. 

Grab the points here.

Take Charlotte. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are a different team this year. New Orleans isn't playing as fast as possible as they did under Alvin Gentry. Stan Van Gundy has this team playing in the bottom ten in the NBA in pace of play. They have been much better on defense too, and that isn't a surprise since Van Gundy considers himself a defensive guy.

The Phoenix Suns are likely to play a little slower this year as well. At this stage of his career Chris Paul isn't a guy who tends to run the floor as fast as many of the point guards in the NBA. Expect Phoenix to slip some this year in terms of tempo, but they should improve on defense. They certainly have so far this year.

I think this line is off based on what these teams were last year compared to now.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are clearly a different team with Stan Van Gundy as their head coach as compared to Alvin Gentry. Van Gundy is more of a defensive-minded coach who isn't going to encourage running nearly as much as Gentry.

New Orleans ranked fourth in the NBA in tempo last year. They rank 24th through two games. It is a small sample size, but the Pelicans are averaging more than 3 possessions less per game than last year thus far.  I would expect New Orleans to improve defensively as well, and in their first two games they have done that.

The Spurs and Pelicans played high scoring games last year and that has led to a high total here. I think it is too high with the Pelicans being a different team.

The Spurs will likely finish in the middle of the pack in tempo again this year.  San Antonio's first two games being elevated from a totals perspective has given us a good number to go under here.

Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the NBA in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Draymond Green missed the Warriors first game and he is questionable here. Stephen Curry is excellent, but he isn't surrounded by many "scorers" or distributors on this Warriors team. They badly miss Klay Thompson. 

The Bucks were the best defense in the NBA last season. They do play fast, but they are good at locking teams down on defense.

Christmas Day unders have been tremendous in the past decade. This makes a lot of sense to me because the players are celebrating either right before or right after the game with their families. I think the Christmas under trend is a solid one.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Last year these two teams met twice and the final scores were 214 and 203. The Heat are a good defensive team, and they typically have not let the Pelicans get into their normal extremely fast paced type of game.

Christmas Day unders have been tremendous in the past decade. This makes a lot of sense to me because the players are celebrating either right before or right after the game with their families. I think the Christmas under trend is a solid one.

This total is set several points too high. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks will look like a different team under Tom Thibodeau. Does that mean they will be better? Not necessarily, but Thibodeau is trying his best to turn this into a defensive-minded team. He also wants this team to play at a slow pace to start the season out. The Knicks played very slow in the preseason and had three of their four games in the preseason finish at 193 points or lower. 

Indiana is a strong defensive team. They will be one of the best in the Eastern Conference on that end again this year. The Pacers also prefer to play slowly. 

Last year, these two teams met three times. The final total in those games was 207, 177, and 204 points. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers missed a chance to finish off the Miami Heat in Game 5 on Friday night. 

The Lakers also failed to win that game despite some red hot shooting from beyond the arc from LeBron James. James is only a mediocre 3 point shooter (he's great at everything else), but he was 6/9 from long range on Friday night. The Lakers were shooting 56% from the floor in the middle of the third quarter in game five. The game did slow down and it narrowly edged over the total because of 17 points in the last 1:52 of the contest in Game 5.

Miami and Los Angeles combined to average 1.17 points per possession in Game 5, which is far above their season averages. Both teams shot the ball really well from the floor. The teams also combined to shoot a sizzling 91% from the free throw line. The 39 points from the charity stripe were key in sending the game just over the posted total.

The under has been great bet in the long run in close out games in the NBA playoffs. The pace tends to slow and the defenses lock in even more. 

The average pace in games 4 and 5 has been 92.75 possessions. If game 6 has 93 possessions, the teams could average 1.16 and 1.15 points per possession and it still stays under this total. For the season as a whole, both of these teams averaged a tick under 1.12 points per possession.

Since there is so much on the line and the shooting numbers were clearly above average in Game 5, I'm going to side with the under here in Game 6.

If both teams shoot the lights out it will lose, but history is on our side and the line value is there.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers now lead the Miami Heat 3-1 in this series. The Lakers were much better defensively in game four. They were able to take away Butler's looks in the paint. Look for that to be a strategy that continues into this game to try to pack the paint as much as possible and force Butler to be a passer more often than not. 

Miami's defense is significantly better with Bam Adebayo on the floor. He is a good shot blocker near the rim. He also helps a lot on the defensive glass. Without him, the Lakers were crushing the Heat on the offensive boards. Adebayo isn't 100 percent, but him being on the floor is a positive for the under.

The average tempo of the last three games in this series is 94 possessions. Closeout games often see a slow pace (especially if they are a tight game). If we see 94 possessions here, both teams could average 1.15 points per possession from the floor (very efficient on offense) and this one would fall just below 217 points.

I think the tempo points this one to an under without a ref show or some ridiculous 3 point shooting. Those are always possible, but there is an edge here with the under with the projected pace and the Heat with their top defensive player again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers beat the Miami Heat 124-114 in Game 2. The fact that last game was so high scoring creates an opportunity for us to get a much higher posted total for this contest. 

The shooting numbers last game were extremely high. These teams aren't likely to shoot it as well as they did in game 2. 

The Lakers put up a ridiculous 1.348 points per possession. Miami put up 1.253 points per possession on Friday night. The overall playoff averages are 1.168 for the Lakers and 1.133 for the Heat. 

The pace was actually much slower in game two than in game one. Miami is shorthanded here, and that could certainly make their defense a bit worse, but the Lakers scoring 1.348 points per possession against this scrappy Heat defense shouldn't be expected again. Additionally, the Lakers players said at length on Saturday that the team had talked about their disappointment with their defense in their game 2 win, and that would be an area of focus on Sunday.

This is the highest posted total for any matchup between these two teams this year. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat played a classic game one in the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami ended up coming from behind to win in overtime thanks to some heroics from Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. 

These are two very good teams, and they are both really well-coached. I do still believe the Celtics have a slightly better roster than the Heat. Boston can't afford to get down 2-0 here, so this is a critical game to their hopes in this series. 

Brad Stevens has been a good coach to back ATS in the playoffs. That is especially the case in the short favorite role. As anything from a 1 point underdog to a 7.5 point favorite against a team with a win percentage of 50%-70% in the regular season- Stevens teams are a whopping 21-3 ATS in their last 24 in the playoffs. 

The Celtics have a bunch of scoring options and I like their perimeter defense led by Marcus Smart. 

Look for Boston to bounce back and even up the series.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets are in a game seven on Tuesday night. It makes little sense that this series has gotten to a 7th game. The Clippers were in full control here and simply let this series get away from them. 

Game 7's have been money to the under this postseason thus far (3-0 to the under). They haven't been even close. This number has been adjusted down, so I won't make this a large play, but things tend to change quite a bit in a game 7. 

This is a win or go home game. There is a lot of pressure on both teams. The tempo slows down. The shooting percentages on the whole over time are lower as well in these spots. 

In this series already, the tempo has gradually slowed down from the first three games to the last three games. 

The Clippers are capable of locking down on defense when they are focused, and I would think we get a very focused Clippers defense here. The Nuggets will be looking to slow the pace of this game down.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers have played a very competitive series thus far. It really stands out to me that this series has been played at such a slow tempo compared to what we might have expected. The pace has gotten slower in each game in this series thus far. Overall for the series, the average number of possessions is at only 95. In the last two games combined, the average pace is 93.75 possessions. Last game alone, the pace was 91.5 possessions. 

The Lakers won last game by locking things down defensively in the second half. Los Angeles is likely to show up with strong defense from the start in this one. Houston is a better defensive team this year than many realize as well. 

Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3 pointers. These teams are 7th and 8th in the NBA at defending beyond the arc, so there aren't as many easy looks from long range as normal when these two meet. 

If the game is played at 95 possessions (the series average), the average points per possession would have to exceed 1.16 points per possession to get past this posted total. With the stars on these two teams it is certainly possible, but this line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Miami* The Miami Heat have another chance to finish off this series, and I think they'll take care of business here. Milwaukee hasn't been the same team of late, and now Giannis is injured and is highly questionable for this game. He has sprained his ankle twice in the last few days, and even if he does play he won't be even close to his usual self. 

Milwaukee rose up and had a good game last time out. It took Middleton going crazy to win in OT for the Bucks. Miami also dropped their level of play quite a bit in game four, and I don't think they will do the same here.

Jimmy Butler is great and he's a major matchup problem for the Bucks. Goran Dragic is extremely underrated by many as well. The Heat have a deep team and they are excellent on the defensive end.

Milwaukee got their win to avoid being swept, but I think Miami finishes them off here.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Toronto Raptors have pulled out two close wins in the last two games against Boston. They were very fortunate to hit a buzzer beater in game three and come out with a one point win. 

Boston then bricked a bunch of wide open long range jumpers in game four, and the Celtics still had a chance in the fourth quarter. We can't assume Boston will shoot 20% from 3 point range in every contest. 

Toronto still has some matchup problems with this Celtics team. Brad Stevens is a great coach, and I think he'll have his team ready to go here. The Celtics have blown out the Raptors many times this year, and at this price I think we are getting a discount on the better team in a great bounce back spot.

Take Boston. 

*4 Star Play on Celtics* The Boston Celtics match up well with the Toronto Raptors. Boston leads the season series 5-2. It hasn't been a fluke either. Four of the five wins for the Celtics/ were by six points or more. Three of the five wins have come by 16 points or more for Boston. The Celtics have good defenders on the Raptors key scorers, and they have been able to slow down the Raptors offense much better than just about anyone else.

I like this play better since Boston lost game three in such heartbreaking fashion. Boston players were extremely upset that they let that game slip away after the contest. The Raptors made a great play at the buzzer to win, but the Celtics did look like the better team for most of that game as well. I think we'll see a highly motivated Celtics team show up here, and I don't think the Celtics stars have played their best basketball yet in this series.

Boston is 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 following a loss. The Celtics are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 as an underdog. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against Toronto.

I think Boston takes a 3-1 series lead after a win here.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder square off in game 7 on Wednesday night. 

Oklahoma City changed the way this series has gone by playing Lu Dort more often. Dort is a really good defender, and he's really bad offensively. He makes his opponent work very hard to get good looks. At the same time, teams will cheat off him on the other end.

Houston has shown a long history of struggling in close out games under Mike D'Antoni and with James Harden on the floor. These games are lined high for a reason- clearly the Rockets can score in bunches and could light it up from long range, but they are up against an OKC team that ranked 3rd in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage allowed. 

In Houston's last 28 playoff games that are game #5 through game #7 in the series- 22 of those games have gone under the total and 6 have gone over the total. There have been quite a few poor shooting contests in those, and the tempo has generally been slower.

Oklahoma City can get bogged down on offense too much. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been disappointing on the offensive end down the stretch for the Thunder.

We've seen in the playoffs that the later in the series it has gotten the referees have let them play more often. That would be a big benefit to the under in this one.

Take the under here. 

*Sharp money is moving this line down- I would play this down to 216.5. My number here was 214. Thanks and good luck.* 

*4 Star Play Under* I don't really want to have to play this game since I just lost the under in game six due to some unreal shooting by Murray and Mitchell and the teams overall, but I have to in this spot.

This is a spot where I have made a lot of money through the years. Game 7- everything on the line for both teams. There is a lot of pressure on each side, and the pace usually slows down a bit. On average, the shooting percentages are usually a little lower as well. 

In the first six games of this series- the average pace has been 93.5 possessions per game. That is the slowest pace of any playoff series so far. Both teams have just been shooting lights out. These teams both averaged 1.12 points per possession in the regular season. They are averaging 1.25 points per possession and 1.21 points per possession in this series. In game six, they combined to shoot 36/72 from 3 point range.

If the teams just shot their season average (1.12)- this total would come in around 209. If both teams shoot lights out again we'll lose this play, but there are too many long term systems and angles pointing toward an under here for me to pass it up.

Look for both defenses to look a little better and the pace to be slow here.

Take the under. 

*My projection here was 213.5- so I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 217.5 and a 3 star rating at anything lower than that. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play on Miami* The Miami Heat are a dangerous team. Jimmy Butler gives them a star, but the rest of the team is far better than most people realize. Goran Dragic is a very solid point guard who can give Milwaukee real trouble in this series, especially with Eric Bledsoe banged up. Duncan Robinson is a complete player who shoots 44.6% from long range. The Heat bench is deep as well.

Miami won outright in two of the three meetings between these two teams this year. The other game (in the bubble) Miami led by 20 points before losing after an ugly fourth quarter. The Heat have proven they play the Bucks tough. Milwaukee didn't have a very easy time with the Magic in the first round, and this is a huge step up in class to the Heat in round two.

I think Erik Spoelstra is a really good coach. He has been excellent at getting his team ready for big games. He has been especially good when given a lot of team to prepare. The Heat are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games with at least 3 days between games.

I expect a hard fought series here. Grab the points with the underdog.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star NBA Jazz/Nuggets CASH* The Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets play in a huge game six battle on Sunday night. The Jazz have been automatic on offense for most of this series. How good have they been? Utah is averaging a whopping 1.274 points per possession in this series. In their three regular season games against Denver, they averaged 1.051 points per possession. 

The pace in this series has been very slow, but the shooting numbers have been so high it hasn't mattered. Denver did switch their defense to a more aggressive defense where they fight through screens in the second half of game five. That was their best defensive half yet against the Jazz pick and roll offense. 

This game is the biggest game of the season for both teams. We should get a lot of effort on defense from both teams. This total is the second highest total for a game played between these two in the last nine meetings. Closeout games typically have lower posted totals.

Last game went over the total thanks to 10 points in the final 23 seconds of the game including a long banked in 3 by Mitchell which made Utah keep fouling and extending the game. The teams both hit 16 three pointers in that contest and it should have stayed under the total.

If the shooters cool off at all or the defense picks up some, this is a lot of points for the pace this game will be played at.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets meet in a pivotal game five matchup on Saturday evening. 

The Houston Rockets love to shoot 3 pointers. Houston is up against an OKC team that was third in the NBA in 3 point defense. The Thunder are making them shoot difficult shots in this series. 

Russell Westbrook will play for the first time in this series. Westbrook does give Houston another scoring option here, and that is why the total is up several points. At the same time, Westbrook grades as one of the better defenders for the Rockets and that is being overlooked.

Both of these teams last played on Monday and that is generally a good thing for the under with a long layoff. 

This total is set at the same number as the first couple meetings in the regular season between these two teams. This game means a lot more than those games did and on the whole that is beneficial to the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder got Luguentz Dort back before game two, and with Dort back in the lineup they have been able to put together a much better defensive plan against this Houston Rockets offense. 

With Dort as the primary defender, James Harden was 3/14 in game three. Dort rates out as the Thunder's best defensive player and their worst offensive player in the last couple games. He'll get a lot of minutes here because of how good he has done on Harden. Minutes for Dort are a positive for the under.

Clearly, Harden could have a big game at any point, but Dort is at least making him work very hard.

The average pace of 98.58 possessions in this series is pretty slow. It would take some very efficient offense to get above this total if the pace stays the same here. 

The last two games have finished at 209 points and then 208 points in regulation. I see this total as being inflated.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Celtics ATS* The Philadelphia 76ers had a great opportunity to beat Boston in game three. They blew their chance. Can the 76ers get off the mat down 3-0? I don't think they can.

Brett Brown is badly outcoached here by Brad Stevens. The 76ers didn't even have practice on Saturday. Nobody has come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA, and the 76ers know they won't be the first. 

Boston is the much deeper team, and the Celtics should play better than they did in game 3. Boston blew away the 76ers in game two, and I think we could see that again here. The 76ers don't have any real reason to put in a big effort here, and Brown is about to lose his job. I don't think they show much pride in this spot.

The Celtics are 22-1 ATS in Stevens' last 23 games in the playoffs as either favorites or underdogs of 2.5 points or less. 

Take Boston. 

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Philadelphia 76ers can't win this series without Ben Simmons. They know it now, and I don't think the 76ers have the best team chemistry now either. Brett Brown will likely be gone at the end of the season, and I don't think the players respect him very much. Brown has looked completely outmatched in playoff series' many times now.

Brad Stevens is an excellent coach and he has found ways to take advantage of this 76ers team without Ben Simmons. The pick and roll has been great for the Celtics. Shake Milton has been a nice player for the 76ers this year, but Milton's defense is dreadful. He has been exposed defensively in this series, and I expect that to continue. 

The Celtics are the much deeper team, and that depth is extremely hard for the 76ers to match when Simmons is out. 

The 76ers have been horrible away from home all year. I don't see that trend ending for this one. I'll lay the points here.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets ranked as the second slowest paced team in the regular season. Denver slows things down and grinds the game into a half court contest. Utah ranked 24th in the NBA in tempo as well, so they prefer to play slowly.

In game one between these two, the pace was only 96.45 possessions. Both teams shot the ball extremely well. Mitchell absolutely went off for the Jazz. The Nuggets backups shot the ball very well. 

There are a bunch of key offensive players out for both teams here. For the Jazz- Conley and Bogdonavic are key pieces. For the Nuggets- Harris and Barton are both important pieces. 

In the regular season these teams met three times. None of those three meetings saw a regulation score finishing higher than 210 points. 

The total here has been adjusted upward by 3 points from game one. The Nuggets shot 54% from long range in game one and Mitchell had 57 points for the Jazz in game one. I'll bet on regression to the mean.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Toronto Raptors won 134-110 over the Brooklyn Nets in game one of the series. That has led this total to jump all the way to 226.5. A five point adjustment is really extreme. 

Toronto averaged 1.327 points per possession in game one. Brooklyn averaged 1.078 points per possession. 

These two teams met four times in the regular season. The highest posted total was 224.5 (the others were all 218.5 or lower). In the four regular season meetings the Raptors averaged 1.089 points per possession while the Nets averaged 1.047 points per possession. Three of the four games went under this total and two of them went under by a large amount. 

The Raptors are elite on defense. The Nets aren't terrible on defense either, and they should do a better job guarding Fred Van Vleet in this one.

Toronto made 22/44 from 3 point range in game one. The fact they got ahead by so much early in the game made the overall pace of the game speed up. 

This is a big adjustment and I have to bet the under here. Playoff games mean a lot to professionals and I would expect stronger efforts on defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Orlando Magic are banged up heading into the postseason. Jonathan Isaac was really an important part of this team down the stretch and he is out for the year with an injury. Michael Carter-Williams is out with an injury. Mo Bamba is out for the year as well. Aaron Gordon is questionable for this game. If he plays he will be less than 100 percent. 

The Milwaukee Bucks didn't play very well down the stretch in the bubble, but what did they have to play for? They didn't have to play well in that stretch, but now is their time to get things back together. The Magic injuries have turned them into a team without much depth at all, and that is a problem against a Milwaukee team that is extremely deep.

Giannis is a matchup problem for the Magic. Orlando will likely find it difficult to get open looks from long range against the Bucks as well. Orlando has been very streaky from 3 on the year, but they are a far below average team on the whole from long range.

Big favorites have done well early in the playoffs in the last decade. The Bucks are a far superior team, and they come in the much healthier team as well.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star NBA Playoff System SMASHER* The Philadelphia 76ers are hurt significantly by Ben Simmons being out due to an injury. He is a matchup problem for the Celtics when he is on the floor.

Brett Brown is a coach I'm not very high on. Brown hasn't been able to matchup well with top coaches in the NBA playoffs in the past. He'll be up against one of the best in the business in Brad Stevens here. Stevens consistently puts his teams in the best possible position to succeed, and I can't say the same about Brown. 

The Celtics depth is impressive, and the 76ers can't match that depth. Boston is the better defensive team as well. 

Under Brad Stevens- the Celtics are 19-1 ATS in the playoffs when they are playing a team with a win percentage of 51-70 percent and are either underdogs of 2.5 points or less or favorites of 7.5 points or less. This one fits the system.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play on Grizzlies ATS* The Portland Blazers have been leaning extremely heavily on their starters to play a ton of minutes lately. They don't come into this game very fresh at all. Damian Lillard is amazing, but he's being forced to do too much right now. Ray McCollum is banged up and not himself right now. The Blazers defense has been miserable at the end of the regular season, and that really keeps opponents in the game. Portland has allowed 1.231 points per possession in their last four games. Portland has played a bunch of close games of late.

Portland has to win only once in this series and the Grizzlies would have to win twice. If Memphis is ahead in the second half, we might see Terry Stotts play for the next game. Additionally, Portland needed OT to beat Memphis in the bubble recently, and the Grizzlies won easily in the earlier meeting between these two this year.

I'll take the generous amount of points here.

Take Memphis. 

*3 Star NBA ATS Play of the Day* The Portland Blazers need to win this game, but too high of a point spread has been placed on them because of that. The public is betting on Portland in large numbers. Portland will probably win the game, but I'll take the points here with the underdog.

Portland plays after the two teams they are battling for a playoff spot against. If they are already locked into their spot, they would likely be far less likely to play their starters for a bunch of minutes. C.J. McCollum is hurting a lot, and their starters have played a lot of minutes lately.

The Nets come into this game in good form. They have won five of their last six games. The Blazers haven't won a single game in the bubble by more than 10 points.

Too many points here.

Take Brooklyn. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Memphis Grizzlies have a lot to play for right now. There are a bunch of teams in the bubble right now that really have no reason to care much whether they win or lose. Memphis is not one of those teams. 

The Toronto Raptors defense has been number one in the NBA in their last four games. Toronto's help side defense and awareness on defense is unmatched in the NBA. I would think they would be up for this one since they were torched by the Celtics in their last game.

Memphis is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last four games The Grizzlies have some key pieces missing on offense too, so they have been inefficient offensively. 

The intensity should be high enough here and both teams will work hard on defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana Pacers coaching staff talked about their want to play at a quicker tempo without Domantas Sabonis (out with an injury). They have done that in their first few games in the restart. This is a different team than we saw earlier this year. T.J. Warren is thriving in this faster pace offense, and Warren has a chance to light up his old team here. He should have a big game. 

Phoenix is playing among the fastest teams in the league. The Suns have been shooting the ball really well of late, and Ayton has been playing well on the inside. Devin Booker is a star and the offensive pieces around him are better than many believe.

In the last three games, these teams rank 4th and 8th in offensive efficiency in the NBA. The pace will be there, and both of these teams are capable of hitting 120 here. I think this total should get to at least the mid 230's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz offense has been a mess in the first couple games in the NBA restart. That was against a terrible New Orleans defense and a decent Oklahoma City defense. Now, they have to play a Lakers team that ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Jazz are doing too much one on one offense and not moving the ball.

The first two games between these teams were totaled at 216.5 and 212.5. The games finished with 181 points and 217 points. This total has been adjusted upward quite a bit. These are two top ten defenses.

The under is 11-5 in the Lakers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play on Thunder* The Utah Jazz have plenty of issues right now. Bogdanovic is the team's second leading scorer and the is out with an injury. The Jazz don't really have many good backup scoring options to fill this role. Jordan Clarkson put up 23 points last game, but he hasn't shown himself to be reliable for anything like that on a regular basis. The team has been having team chemistry issues as well with Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. 

Utah was very fortunate to beat New Orleans in their first game back on Thursday night. The Pelicans were poorly coached in that game, and the youngsters from New Orleans handed away that game in the fourth quarter.

Oklahoma City is a much more veteran team than New Orleans, and the Thunder have already shown they can beat the Jazz. In fact, the Thunder have beaten Utah twice this year and both of those games were in Salt Lake City. 

I don't think the Thunder will fold like New Orleans did late in the game. Oklahoma City matches up well with Utah because of their length and speed. The Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Utah.

Take Oklahoma City. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets have played twice this year. The first game was a 137-123 contest. The second meeting was a 128-121 final. The posted total in the first game was 230 points. The posted total in the second game was 237-238 points depending on the sportsbook. Here, we have a total of 8 or 9 points lower than that despite the fact that both games sailed over the posted total.

This is a neutral court and that accounts for a move down in the total to a degree, but it can't be adjusted by 8 or 9 points. These are the top two efficiency offenses in the NBA. The two teams both rank just below average in defensive efficiency. 

Both teams have shot the ball pretty well in their exhibition games here at Disney. The Rockets make a living at the line as well.

I don't generally like to bet many overs on neutral courts, but this is a huge adjustment. The sharp money is on the over here, and I agree.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on the Pelicans* The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot more to play for in this game. New Orleans can't afford to be losing games here. Utah can lose games and still get in the playoffs. With this strange set up down in the NBA bubble, I do think that situational spots will matter a lot.

The Pelicans were playing great basketball in their exhibitions the last few days. They didn't lose a game. Zion Williamson is a game time decision. Williamson playing would be a huge boost to the team, but I do think they have a good chance of winning and covering even if he does sit out this game.

Utah's team chemistry is a question mark right now with Gobert and Mitchell feuding. They also don't have 3 point star Bojan Bogdonavic who is injured. 

The team with more to play for laying the short number is my play here.

Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks are banged up right now. Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable here. Seth Curry is out of the lineup. Tim Hardaway Jr. is listed as doubtful. Luka Doncic is playing through a minor injury. 

The Indiana Pacers are injured even more badly. Malcolm Brogdon is out with a significant injury. Victor Oladipo is questionable as he edges back onto the floor. Doug McDermott is doubtful with an injury. Jeremy Lamb is out for the season with an injury.

Sunday's have been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Today, things are even a bit more unique from a scheduling standpoint since the clocks moved forward.

The under is 39-19-1 in the Pacers last 59 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Late in the regular season in the NBA, taking the under when two good teams play each other has been a strong angle. Both of these teams have been very good this year. Everyone knew the Celtics would be very good. The Thunder have been better than anyone could have imagined.

Sunday's have been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Today, things are even a bit more unique from a scheduling standpoint since the clocks moved forward.

The under is 42-17-1 in the Thunder's last 60 games as an underdog. They have tended to slow the pace when playing against a stronger team.

The under is also 22-10 in the Celtics last 32 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Am I excited to bet an under between these two teams? Of course not. I'll do it in this situation and at this price point though. Minnesota and New Orleans play an early afternoon game on Sunday after the clocks move forward on Saturday night. Sunday afternoon unders have been very good in the long run in the NBA, and that has been especially true in the Western Conference. In this spot, the teams got an hour less rest and have their body clock thrown off even more than normal.

This is one of the highest totals you will ever see in the NBA. If you get one below average scoring quarter here it should keep the game under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Clippers and Lakers is a great showdown on Sunday afternoon in LA. Sunday afternoon unders have been very good in the long run in the NBA, and that has been especially true in the Western Conference. In this spot, the teams got an hour less rest and have their body clock thrown off even more than normal. This is a 12:30 local start time after a short night. 

Both of these teams have been excellent on defense in recent contests. I think they'll both be plenty motivated for this high profile showdown on Sunday afternoon. Effort shouldn't be lacking on the defensive end.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Milwaukee has been the best defense in the league all year, and it hasn't been close. The Bucks have played their best defense of the season in the last few weeks though. They are dominating on that end of the floor.

Milwaukee is giving up only 0.984 points per possession in their last 10 games. That's first in the NBA by a wide margin. Who is second in defensive efficiency in that same period? The Lakers. The Lakers are allowing 1.042 points per possession during that time.

The Lakers are 12th in offensive efficiency during that time. The Bucks are 21st on offense in those games.

This is a late season NBA game between two very good teams, and I think both teams will show up a bit more motivated than in a normal contest. On the whole that is a good thing for the under.

It should be a really good one here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Friday BEST Bet* The Phoenix Suns are beat up right now. They are without Oubre Jr. and Ayton is unlikely to play as well. Phoenix was on a nice run when they were healthy, but the market hasn't adjusted enough to these injuries.

Portland is pushing hard for the playoffs, and Damian Lillard is back. Lillard is the clear leader for this team, and Portland is now a dangerous team who nobody would want to see in the playoffs.

This is a good spot for Portland to try to make up some ground on those in front of them in the standings.

Take Portland. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks have been flexing their muscles defensively of late. They have been the best defense in the NBA all year, but they have been playing their best on that end of the floor in the last few weeks. 

In the last 12 games, Milwaukee is allowing only 0.979 points per possession. The second best defense in the NBA during that time (Lakers) is allowing 1.054 points per possession. The Bucks are dominating with defense. 

Indiana ranks 9th in defensive efficiency during that time frame as well.

These two teams rank 25th and 26th in offensive efficiency during that time frame. 

Victor Oladipo is questionable tonight and if he plays he'll clearly be less than 100%. 

The under is 31-12 in the Pacers last 43 road games against a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Thunder* The Detroit Pistons are badly shorthanded at this point. Detroit is without Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, and Luke Kennard. Bruce Brown is listed as doubtful and Brandon Knight is questionable with an injury tonight. Christian Wood is banged up, but will likely try to play.

Oklahoma City has been excellent at bouncing back this year, and they have been great on the road. The Thunder are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 on no rest. The Thunder are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.

Detroit is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games. They are coming off a long road trip and the first game back can be a difficult spot.

Take Oklahoma City. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers are badly banged up right now. The 76ers have been playing a slower pace without Ben Simmons. They rank 28th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last three contests. Philadelphia is clearly not the same team on the offensive end without Simmons and Embiid.

The Los Angeles Clippers have a rare early start time. This has been great for under bettors in general in Western Conference games, and in Clippers games it has been a particularly strong angle. The under is 30-15 in the last 45 Clippers home games with a total of 190 or higher that starts at 5 pm EST or earlier. 

This is a contest between two quality teams. The under is 9-1 in the 76ers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The 76ers offense has really struggled against good defenses, and the Clippers have a lot of talent on the defensive end.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Nets* The Brooklyn Nets are coming off two disappointing losses in a row. Brooklyn needs to get things put back together to hold their position in the playoff standings. The Nets now take on a Hawks team that has played poorly overall this year against teams with a losing record on the year. 

Atlanta has significant injury problems. The Hawks are expected to be without DeAndre Bembry and Clint Capela here. Trae Young is a question mark due to an illness. Dedmon will miss this game. Huerter is playing through pain as well. 

The Nets defense is much better than the Hawks. They should come into this game with a big effort after consecutive poor performances.

Take Brooklyn. 

*3 Star Play on Nets* The Brooklyn Nets lost to the Washington Wizards as a favorite earlier this month. Brooklyn is the better team here. The Nets are playing with revenge. 

Washington is also coming off an overtime heartbreaking loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. Bradley Beal has put up more than 50 points in back to back. Beal is a great player, but it will be hard to continue producing at this level.

The sharp money is clearly on the Nets here. While the bets are 50/50, the money is 70% on the Nets.

Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. They are coming off a tight loss to the Magic. 

I expect a strong effort from the Nets tonight so I'll lay the short number.

Take Brooklyn. 

*3 Star Play on Thunder* The Oklahoma City Thunder have impressed me all year long. Chris Paul has been a perfect fit for this team. He has really mentored the youngsters on this team. The chemistry on this team has been great.

The Bulls had hope coming into the season, but things weren't going very well to begin with. It has gotten much worse as they have suffered all sorts of injuries as well. They are expected to be without Markannen, Dunn, Porter Jr., Carter, and Valentine. Chicago is extremely thin right now.

Oklahoma City is a whopping 12-1 straight up in their last 13. They are a stunning 13-0 ATS in their last 13 road games.

Chicago is 18-40 ATS in their last 58 home games. The Bulls are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 as a home underdog. 

Take Oklahoma City. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Boston Celtics will be without Kemba Walker for this game. Walker is clearly a key to the offense. He averages 22 points and 5 assists per game. 

This is a very early start time for a game in Calfornia. This one starts at 12:30 pm local time. There aren't many games that start at this time for the Lakers, and the long term trend is that the under has done really well in these games.

The under is 43-21-1 in the Lakers last 65 home games in general. 

These two teams have both been above average on defense this year, and they play at a pace right around the league average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Chicago Bulls are a badly banged up group. The Bulls are expected to be without Wendell Carter, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine, Otto Porter Jr., and Kris Dunn today. 

Both DeAndre Ayton and Dario Saric are listed as probable for the Suns. The Bulls really don't have anyone down low to slow down Ayton, and that should be a key in this game.

The Bulls have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing record. Chicago is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 as a home underdog.

The short handed Bulls looked terrible in their home loss to the Hornets. I think the Suns can take advantage of them here as well.

Take Phoenix. 

*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Memphis Grizzlies have been playing good basketball in recent weeks. Memphis is coming off a bad showing in their last game. The Grizzlies have been good at bouncing back from a recent loss. Memphis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss. Memphis is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss by 10 points or more.

The Washington Wizards are coming off a big win. Washington isn't a consistent team though. Washington is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following a win. Washington is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on Sunday.

Memphis has something to play for while the Wizards don't. A good bounce back spot.

Take the Grizzlies. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Miami Heat are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS loss. Miami has been an extremely proud team that bounces back well after a loss this year, and they have a good chance of bouncing back again here. They lost to the Clippers in their last game, but now they take on a Kings team that is only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 following a win.

Sacramento is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Kings were expected to be better than they are this year. Instead, they will miss the playoffs yet again this year. This is a team with talent, but their chemistry hasn't been good, and Luke Walton hasn't worked out very well here at least so far.

Though Butler likely won't play here, the Heat have a lot of depth and the situational spot is a strong one.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* This is an ultra early start time. The NBA games are earlier on Sunday thanks to the Super Bowl on Sunday evening. Here we have a Denver team playing a game at 10:30 am on their body clock. Detroit is playing one of their earliest games of the season as well.

The two teams in this game have been playing fairly slowly. In their last ten games, the Pistons rank 19th out of 30 in the NBA in pace of play. The Nuggets rank 24th in pace of play during that time. Both teams also rate slightly better than average on defense in the last ten and slightly below average on offense in the last ten.

A good spot for an under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Spurs* The Chicago Bulls have had a bunch of trouble covering the spread at home. Chicago is 17-36 ATS in their last 53 home games. The Bulls are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 as a home underdog. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a win.

The Spurs have improved after starting the season off playing some really bad basketball. San Antonio has a chance to make a run to get to the playoffs still, and this is the type of game they need to win.

The Spurs are clearly the healthier team here. The Bulls are without Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., and Wendell Carter Jr. That is three very important players to this Bulls team sitting out.

I'll lay the short price with the Spurs here.

Take San Antonio. 

*3 Star NBA Friday Fast Cash* The New York Knicks are without RJ Barrett due to an injury. New York wasn't good with him, and he is clearly a big loss. 

Toronto was badly banged up for a long time. The Raptors now are healthy. Toronto is the healthier team of the two in this contest. Since Toronto did struggle without their best players, I believe they are still undervalued now. The Raptors have looked great on offense in recent games, and the Knicks are unlikely to be able to keep up.

The Knicks are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a winning record. 

Look for Toronto to continue their recent strong play and win and cover here.

Take the Raptors. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets have had some turmoil of late. Houston doesn't look like the team many expected them to be. Opponents have started double teaming James Harden in certain situations and forcing someone else to beat them. It has been working pretty well. Houston ranks 20th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. 

Oklahoma City is slightly slower than the average team in the NBA in tempo. The Thunder have been inconsistent defensively, but they have done a nice job against the Rockets thus far in their meetings. 

These two teams don't like each other for multiple reasons. There is a lot of familiarity here, and I see this being a game where both teams place a high level of importance on this specific contest. 

This is an earlier start than normal, especially for two teams from the Western Conference due to  the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday in the United States. These early starts are on the whole are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Miami has been tremendous on offense in their last five games. How good? The Heat are averaging 1.207 points per possession in their last five contests. That is third best in the NBA in that period. The defense has been bad though. Miami is allowing 1.162 points per possession, which is third worst in the NBA in the last five games. 

Oklahoma City has been middle of the road in both of these areas of late, but the Thunder have picked up the tempo in the last few games. It is also important to note that Oklahoma City has had much higher scoring games at home this year. Their offense is averaging just 1.059 points per possession on the road, but they are averaging 1.117 points per possession. Their defense has been slightly worse at home as well.

With the efficient Miami offense and Oklahoma City scoring efficiently in transition and at home, I think this number is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have been badly banged up. They are getting close to getting healthy, but from the sounds of coach Nick Nurse they aren't likely to have Pascal Siakim and Marc Gasol for this one. He said both of those guys should be back in the next week, but followed that up by saying that them playing today is probably a bit too ambitious. I'll take him at his word.

The Raptors are playing much slower while they are without Van Vleet, Siakim, and Gasol. They don't have enough firepower now to be pushing the pace. Toronto is still great on defense though. In Toronto's last eight games, they are 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are also 28th out of 30 teams in pace of play. 

The Spurs have put up some huge numbers offensively of late, but some of those have come against some really bad defenses. 

This officiating crew is one of the best under crews in the business. Brian Forte is the crew chief has had 54.8% of his games in his career stay under the total. Each of the refs have seen at least 52% of their games stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls are both playing at a slow pace. If we look at their last four games, the Bulls are 22nd in tempo. The Pacers are 27th out of 30 in tempo. There isn't any reason to expect this to be anything other than a slow paced game with both teams playing in the halfcourt.

Divisional unders have done much better than overs in the NBA. These teams know each other very well. In fact, they have a history of playing a lot of unders against each other. The under is 19-7 in the last 26 games between these two teams. 

The Bulls have been a good under team against good teams. Chicago has put up big numbers offensively on bad teams, but they have struggled against quality teams. The under is 20-7 in the Bulls last 27 games against teams with a winning record.

The referee crew here is a slight positive for the under as well.

This number is up because of the recent high scoring games these teams have played in, and I think that creates some value on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA right now, and it isn't even close. Charlotte is averaging 94.19 possessions per game in their last ten games. The second slowest team in that time (Pacers) is averaging 96.79 possessions per game.

Toronto has all sorts of major injuries right now. Pascal Siakim was amazing until getting injured. Fred Van Vleet was having a great year, but he is out with an injury now. Norman Powell is injured. Marc Gasol is injured. The guys who have been getting playing time instead now (Johnson, Thomas, Hollis-Jefferson, etc) have much lower offensive ratings than those guys who are injured. Toronto's current lineup is excellent on defense though. The Raptors are fifth in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Johnson and Thomas rate as elite defenders according to advanced metrics.

With the slower tempo and weakened offensive firepower here, I like the value on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls and Dallas Mavericks are two banged up teams. Otto Porter is out for the Bulls. Lauri Markannen is listed as questionable for this game. Zach LaVine is probable with an ankle injury. Kristaps Porzingis is out for this one for Dallas. Tim Hardway Jr. is listed as questionable. 

Chicago ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past 10 games. The Bulls are 27th in offensive efficiency. The Bulls have slowed their tempo down drastically from earlier this year as well. Chicago is 22nd in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. Dallas is 17th, so they are slightly slower than average as well.

With some key pieces missing this is a pretty high posted total.

The Bulls have seen 12 of their last 15 games stay under this number in regulation.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their pace throughout the course of the season. Philadelphia is 24th in the NBA in pace of play in their last ten games. Indiana doesn't play very quickly either. The Pacers rank 20th in tempo for the year overall.

The Pacers have consistently been an under team when playing against quality opponents. That has been the case again so far this year. Indiana's games are 17-7 to the under in their last 24 games against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

The 76ers are averaging 1.159 points per possession in their last five games. For the year overall, this team is barely better than mediocre. I think their offensive production likely regress back toward the mean.

This is a New Year's Eve contest that tips very early in the day. These early starts are a positive for the under since they are outside the normal for these players.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their pace of play in recent weeks. In the early going this year, they were one of the top five fastest teams in the NBA. Philadelphia now ranks 21st in tempo in their last ten games. Milwaukee ranks 3rd in tempo.

Milwaukee is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency both for the year and for the last ten games. The Bucks are giving up only 1.014 points per possession on the year. They are giving up an even lower 1.003 points per possession during their last ten contests. 

Philadelphia ranks 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. 

Christmas Day unders have done extremely well in the NBA, especially games that start early in the day. The under is 27-11 (71.1%) in Christmas Day games that tip off at 4 pm eastern or earlier. 

This is the day after the players get to celebrate Christmas with their families and the games being lower scoring here make a lot of sense to me.

With this high number, I'll look for this to stay under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics host the Toronto Raptors in a game that tips off just after noon on Christmas Day.

Boston ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Toronto is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. 

While Toronto has been pushing the pace, Boston has really slowed things down of late. The Celtics are 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games.

Christmas Day unders have done extremely well in the NBA, especially games that start early in the day. The under is 27-11 (71.1%) in Christmas Day games that tip off at 4 pm eastern or earlier. 

This is the day after the players get to celebrate Christmas with their families and the games being lower scoring here make a lot of sense to me.

Two good defenses in an early game on Christmas Day.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks meet in a key divisional battle on Sunday. Milwaukee has been playing some tremendous basketball this year, and they look like a virtual lock to get the top seed in the Eastern Conference barring a major injury.

Indiana has really been impressive this year as well. They are 20-9 on the year, and they haven't even been at full strength for much of the season.

Milwaukee ranks first in defensive efficiency in the NBA for the season. Indiana ranks seventh.

Divisional unders have done better than unders in other games in the NBA over the last 15 or 20 years. These games mean more. 

Milwaukee is averaging 1.144 points per possession and allowing 1.019 points per possession on the season as a whole. Against only Central Division opponents, Milwaukee is averaging 1.136 points per possession and allowing 0.988 points per possession.

Indiana is averaging 1.090 points per possession overall and they are allowing 1.038 points per possession. Against only Central Division opponents, Indiana is averaging only 1.006 points per possession and giving up only 1.030 points per possession.

The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA ATS Game of the Week* The Boston Celtics have lost their last two games. Boston hasn't lost three straight games all year. Brad Stevens is a top three coach in the NBA, and his teams have been excellent on the road. The Celtics are 107-66 ATS in their last 173 road games as a favorite of 2.5 or less or an underdog. Boston has had a long break between games and had plenty of time to think about their two straight disappointing losses.

Many times in the NBA we see a team without their star player pull off a great performance in game one of their time without that key player. That happened for the Mavericks without Luka Doncic in Milwaukee on Monday night. If they win that first game in stunning fashion like Dallas did, I like to look to fade that team in game two without their superstar. Reality often sets in after the initial burst that players get.

The Celtics have a deeper team than the Mavericks. Dallas would have had the best player on the floor in Doncic, but without him they take a big hit. Dallas has already been shaky against quality teams at home this year. Boston is in a nice bounce back spot here.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bulls have been much better on defense in recent weeks. The Bulls are actually second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past eight games (behind only Milwaukee). Chicago started the season playing terrible defense and looking to run at every opportunity. They rank 19th in pace in the NBA in the past eight games, so they have slowed down a lot as well.

Oklahoma City ranks 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last eight games. They rank 9th in defensive efficiency. 

Chicago's games have been going well under the total lately. In fact, 5 of the Bulls last ten games have finished at 198 points or less in regulation. 

Look for both teams to have some trouble getting open looks here. The Bulls leading scorers are playing with minor injuries as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Lakers ATS* The Los Angeles Lakers are firing on all cylinders right now. The Lakers haven't played since Sunday, so they are well rested for this matchup. The Lakers are 11-1 on the road this year. They have played their best basketball away from Staples Center.

Anthony Davis has been a tremendous second option (sometimes the first option) to pair with LeBron James. No team in the NBA can match the one-two punch of James and Davis. The Lakers bench isn't great, but it has been better than expected. The Lakers have been far better than expected on defense this year.

The Orlando Magic haven't done well when stepping up in class. Orlando is without star big man Nikola Vucevic and that has hurt them a lot. They were beaten soundly by the Raptors at home recently. They were crushed by the Bucks earlier this year. They were beaten at home by the Pacers as well. Orlando can hold their own against mediocre or weak teams right now, but they aren't good enough when playing the best teams on their schedule.

Take the Lakers. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacramento Kings are playing much slower this year. De'Aaron Fox is the catalyst for this team, and he is out with an injury. The Kings offense has been a little less efficient without him, and their defense has actually been better. Fox is one of the quickest players in the NBA, and without him the Kings don't have a reason to push the pace as much.

The Dallas Mavericks have been really good on defense at home. Dallas is giving up only 1.035 points per possession at home this year. Dallas is playing a back to back here which is a positive for the under as well.

Dallas plays at an average pace and Sacramento rates as the second slowest paced team in the NBA.

Dallas is a clear favorite here which reduces the overtime risk.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls have changed up their style in recent weeks. Chicago ranked in the top 8 or 9 in tempo for the first month of the season. For the season overall, they now rank 12th in tempo. Chicago ranks 22nd in tempo in their last five games alone. They have slowed things down and improved their defense of late. The Bulls are giving up just 1.047 points per possession (9th best in NBA) in their last five games.

The Miami Heat have consistently been one of the better defenses in the NBA under Erik Spoelstra. The Heat also have slowed their tempo. Miami is 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last five games. 

I don't see either team pushing the pace here. Sunday unders have done very well in the past 15 years in the NBA. 

I see this total as a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans are definitely capable of putting up a lot of points, and that's why this total is so high. When they met a few days ago, the game didn't come close to this posted total.

This game will tip off at 1 pm local time on a Saturday afternoon. This is an extremely rare Saturday early afternoon game for these two teams. These early start times have been very good to under bettors in the NBA in the past decade. That has especially been the case when it is a divisional matchup.

Dallas has been slightly worse on offense and much better defensively at home this year. The Mavericks are clear favorites here, and that reduces the chances of overtime.

With an extremely high total and a divisional game in the early start time, I'll take the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Heat are coming off an ugly loss to the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. Miami has been excellent at bouncing back from losses. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 following a loss. 

Washington is one of the worst teams in the league and they are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. They are also on the second end of a back to back. Washington picked up a surprising win over the 76ers last night. They got 25 points from Bertans and 27 points from Hachimura in that win. I don't see Washington repeating that performance.

Washington is 12-29-1 ATS in their last 42 road games against a team with a winning record. Miami is a good team who is unbeaten at home this year. Washington has drastic splits. They are much better on their home court.

Miami is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 as a home favorite. The Heat are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 following a loss by 10 points or more. Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 20-0 angle.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT Cash* The Miami Heat are averaging 1.154 points per possession at home. Miami is averaging only 1.045 points per possession on the road. This is a Heat team that plays solid defense regardless of where they are though. Miami is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year thus far.

The Brooklyn Nets were 5th in the NBA in tempo before Kyrie Irving went down with an injury, but in their last eight games without him they rank 15th in tempo. Brooklyn's offensive efficiency has dropped from 15th to 23rd in the last eight games as well. On the other end, Brooklyn has improved a lot defensively. They were 19th in defensive efficiency before, but they are 9th in defensive efficiency in the last 8 games.

Miami ranks 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. This should be a slower paced game than normal. This is also an early start game on Sunday, and these have done well for under bettors in the past.

The under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their tempo of late. It has been hard for the oddsmakers to keep up with how much slower this team is playing. This team was top ten in tempo in the first couple weeks of the season. In the past 10 games, they rank as the second slowest paced team in the NBA. 

Who is the slowest paced team in the NBA in past 10 games? The Sacramento Kings. Sacramento has been playing fairly slow all year, but they have gotten slightly slower in the last few weeks.

Philadelphia is only 15th best in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Sacramento is only 19th best in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Kings are 21st in defensive efficiency for the season, though they have improved in the last few games. The 76ers rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

I see this being a slow paced battle. It would take some very good shooting numbers to get this one over the total if the pace is what I expect it will be here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game that should have both teams motivated tonight. The Raptors edged the 76ers in the playoffs last year, and you know both teams remember that series very well.

I've been tracking the 76ers very closely of late. Philadelphia has clearly decided to slow down their tempo. They were ranking in the top ten in the NBA in tempo the first couple weeks of the season. If we look at only their last 10 games, the 76ers rank 26th in the NBA in tempo. A drastic slowdown. 

Toronto plays near the league average in tempo. The Raptors are 9th in defensive efficiency on the year. The 76ers are 8th in defensive efficiency. 

The Raptors rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the 76ers rank 13th. 

This is a big game for both teams, and the recent tempo of the 76ers makes me think they try to keep this pace slow. 

The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have the talent to be an excellent defensive team. They rank 10th in defensive efficiency so far this year. Philadelphia has also slowed their pace down this year. The 76ers are 15th in the league in tempo overall. In the past six games alone, the 76ers are 24th in the NBA in tempo. 

The New York Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace. The Knicks rank 27th in pace for the year and 28th in pace in the last six games only. New York is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Knicks shot extremely well in their last game, a win over Cleveland, but they'll face a much tougher test here. 

The 76ers offense is only 18th in offensive efficiency. Philadelphia has been inconsistent on the offensive end.

This is a divisional game where the home team is a clear favorite, and those matchups have been good to under bettors in the past decade in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Jazz* The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a tough spot here. Minnesota is playing their 6th game in 9 days here. In today's NBA that is pretty rare. The Timberwolves aren't a particularly deep team, which makes that even tougher for them. Andrew Wiggins is doubtful for this game. Without Wiggins, they were beaten by 21 points at home against Washington and by 20 points at home against Houston. Wiggins has been excellent this year, and if they are without him it is a big loss.

Utah is coming off a loss a few days ago at Memphis. The Jazz have been much better to back at home coming off a loss. Utah is underrated by many in the marketplace now since they have gone 4-8 ATS on the season. I do think this is still one of the best teams in the Western Conference. The Jazz defense is on another level than the Minnesota defense. 

Take Utah. 

*3 Star NBA System Play CRUSHER* Brad Stevens is an excellent coach. I consider him a top five coach in the NBA. Still, his teams have been good fades as big favorites against weak teams. The Celtics tend to not run up the score. 

The Celtics are 12-33-1 ATS under Brad Stevens as favorites of 8.5 points or more against teams with a winning percentage of less than 40%. That's a 26.7% ATS cover rate. Washington fits this system as a fade of the Celtics as a favorite here.

Washington hasn't played since Friday night, so they are extremely rested and they should be ready to go here.

Boston is without Gordon Hayward after he suffered another really tough injury. Daniel Theis is also listed as doubtful and he has helped this team a lot this season.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Denver Nuggets have played at by far the slowest pace in the NBA. Denver is averaging just 97.05 possessions per game. That is nearly two full possessions per game slower than the second slowest team in the league. 

Minnesota is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the league. The Timberwolves do play fast, but a closer look at their schedule so far and you'll see they have played a lot of very fast paced teams. Minnesota hasn't played a team all year ranked slower than 20th in tempo. They have also played 5 of their 8 games against teams ranked in the top nine in the NBA in tempo. 

Denver ranks 9th in defensive efficiency in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 15th. Therse two teams rank 20th and 22nd in offensive efficiency.

Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the long run in the NBA. Sunday divisional unders have done particularly well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals System Play* Divisional games under the total in the NBA has been a good angle in the long run. That is especially true early in the season. 

I like taking divisional unders that are contrarian plays. Divisional unders where less than half the bets are on the under and less than half the money is on the under have done extremely well in the long run. How good has this angle been overall? For the whole season overall- the under is 309-235 (56.8% unders). In the first 30 games of the season, this system is at 60.5%.

Jeremy Lamb is out for the Pacers here, and he has been a big scorer (17 ppg) so far this year. The Pistons are without Reggie Jackson and Derrick Rose (20.8 ppg this year). Blake Griffin is also still out.

There aren't enough scorers here for this game to be lined this high. Both of these teams play slower than average and I like this system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Los Angeles Clippers haven't gotten Paul George back from injury yet. Kawhi Leonard has been dominant so far this year, but he will sit this game out (load management). In the game Leonard sat out against Utah, the Clippers put up a very weak performance. 

Without Leonard and George, this team is actually slightly weaker than a year ago. Milwaukee is the best team in the Eastern Conference. They have the best player in the Eastern Conference in The Greek Freak as well. Giannis should have a big game here against the Clippers without their superstars.

I think the Clippers are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers given the fact that they will be without their best two players on Wednesday.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks have excelled when bouncing back from a loss. They are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up loss. Milwaukee is a well coached team with solid depth and a superstar in Giannis. 

Milwaukee is a perfect 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games when coming off a game with an ATS margin of -9 or worse. That system fits this game after the Bucks blew their halftime lead in a loss against Boston in their last game. 

Orlando is a middle of the road team who has played a weak schedule so far this year. The Magic have some nice pieces, but they don't have the depth Milwaukee has across the board.

I like Milwaukee to bounce back and win comfortably here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Toronto Raptors have been really busy of late. The Raptors are playing their fourth game since 10/25 here. Toronto plays at Milwaukee in their next game. This is a possible look ahead spot. Toronto is still a very good team, but they don't carry the same extremely high upside that they did last year with Kawhi Leonard. 

Detroit is without Blake Griffin now, but the Pistons have some youngsters playing well. Luke Kennard is hitting 48% of his shots from long range so far this year. Christian Wood has been good in the frontcourt. Derrick Rose has turned back the clock and is averaging 21.5 points per game thus far.

Early big underdogs in the NBA have been very strong in the last decade. That system is even stronger when they are against a team who made the playoffs the year before. This one fits.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Clippers* The Los Angeles Clippers depth is hard to match. The Lakers certainly couldn't even come close to matching the Clippers depth in game one. Golden State is far from the same team this year. They are without Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala. Golden State signed Willie Cauley-Stein at center, but he will miss this game with an injury. Kevon Looney is expected to play, but he is banged up.

Golden State won't be a bad team this year by any means, but the Clippers are better. I also like that the Clippers have gotten in one game already this year, while this is the opener for Golden State.

The Clippers bench players are just as good or better than their starters at many positions. That makes them a very tough matchup.

Scott Foster is the lead referee in this game, and the road team is 460-403 ATS in his games.

Take the Clippers. 

*3 Star Play on Bulls* I don't think most people realize how bad the Hornets are going to be this year. Charlotte's roster is just awful. They let Kemba Walker go and now they don't even have a go to scorer. Terry Rozier isn't likely to be the answer here. Rozier isn't surrounded by much either. Nicolas Batum is injured right now. Cody Zeller isn't a bad player, but if he is your second best player you aren't a good team at all.

The Chicago Bulls made themselves better in the offseason. I like the signing of Satoransky at point guard. Kris Dunn and Coby White are good options at point guard as well. Zach LaVine is healthy and Otto Porter Jr. is a good two way player. The Bulls got much deeper in the offseason. I think that depth will help them a lot against teams like Charlotte.

I view the Bulls as better than the market price right now. The Hornets might be the worst team in the NBA.

Lay the short price.

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star NBA Finals Game 6 CASH* The Golden State Warriors stayed alive by winning Game 5 in Toronto. That was a game with all kinds of drama. The Raptors made a big run and appeared to be on the brink of winning it, but then the Warriors made a run to finish the game and won by two. 

Kevin Durant's injury was painful to watch, and it was a shame to see his season end in that fashion. Durant's absence hurts the Warriors a lot on offense. They are clearly still a very good offense with Curry and Thompson, but Durant can be unguardable. Toronto can now try to take their chances on leaving Green and Iguodala open from long range.

Toronto's supporting cast has been inconsistent on offense at times throughout the offseason. Leonard should have another good game here, but we will see what the Raptors do from long range.

These two teams are both very underrated on the defensive end. Golden State's defense was excellent in the closing minutes in Game 5. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism, and they are a tough matchup.

The pace has gotten slower in each of the last three games. As the game means more, things usually slow down. The tempo started at about 100 possessions per game, and the last two games have been 94.5 and 94 possessions. I wouldn't see any reason to expect a faster paced game here. It's a potential close out game and these have been very strongly toward the under in the past decade. 

Look for a hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Finals Game One CASH* The Golden State Warriors benefit from having plenty of time to rest up and prepare for this series. Golden State sweeping Portland gave them a lot of extra time to heal up minor injuries to Curry and Thompson. 

Steve Kerr's teams have been dominant in Game One since he took over. Kerr is 18-1 in Game One in the playoffs. The Warriors will likely be without Kevin Durant, but I believe this team is still easily the most talented team in the NBA without Durant. 

Golden State's defense picked it up without Durant, and Curry and Thompson have been much more aggressive on offense. The Warriors have been here many times before, while Toronto is here for the first time. 

Toronto is a very good team, but I think the Warriors are on a different level. Golden State played relatively poorly in the Portland series and still swept the Blazers. 

The Raptors put everything into the Eastern Conference Finals. They celebrated in a big way after that win. While there is some time between games for them, I do worry some that it still is far from an ideal spot for the Raptors.

Golden State is the better team here, and this is a short price.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star NBA Bucks/Raptors Game 6 CASH* The Raptors have stunned just about everyone by winning three straight in this series. Toronto has really picked up their intensity on the defensive end. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism and they have made it very difficult on the Bucks to get into an offensive rhythm the last few games.

Milwaukee ranked number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They have great shot blockers and good perimeter defenders as well. The Raptors have knocked down a lot of long range jumpers in the last couple games.

The pace of these games has gotten slower by the contest. The tempo in game 4 was 96 possessions and in game 5 it was 95 possessions. As the games get more important, we often see the pace slow down. 

This is a potential close out game, and these have been great under plays in the postseason in the last decade in the NBA.

I'll say the pace sits at 95 possessions or so again here. If both teams averaged around 1.10 points per possession (slightly above average in the NBA postseason), that would put the projected total at 209 points. 

This is a very important game for both teams and I would expect a lot of intensity on defense.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play on Bucks ATS* The Milwaukee Bucks lost in double overtime in Toronto in game three. Kawhi Leonard had 36 points and carried Toronto to a win in a must win game. 

I think it will be hard for Toronto to do it again in Game 4. Giannis Antetokounmpo was 5/16 from the floor and 2/7 from the free throw line in Game 3, and the Bucks still nearly won that game. Khris Middleton, another great scoring option for the Bucks, was 3/16 in that game as well.

Milwaukee ranked first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the regular season. The Bucks work very hard on the defensive end. They are the best shot blocking team in the league. Toronto has a lot of guys who are unreliable from long range.

Milwaukee is a really deep team as well, meaning it could be just about anyone who steps up as a great third or fourth option.

The Bucks are a whopping 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss. I like the Bucks to bounce back here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks ATS* The Toronto Raptors are coming off a very hard fought seven game series against the Philadelphia 76ers. They were fortunate to get out of that one with a win. They must turn around pretty quickly and refocus on the Milwaukee Bucks. 

Milwaukee blew right through Detroit and Boston, and the Bucks are most rested team left in the NBA playoffs. 

Backing rested home teams in game one of a playoff series has been a good way to look long term and this makes a lot of sense to me. The home team in round one is the team with home court advantage in the series and the stronger team most of the time. They have had longer to prepare for the series.

The Bucks and Raptors each have a superstar, but the Bucks are the much deeper team. Milwaukee doesn't have any clear cut weaknesses, while Toronto's 3 point shooting is inconsistent. The Bucks should have the advantage from the line as well. Milwaukee excels at defending without fouling and is better at getting to the line than Toronto.

The Bucks are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games against the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a 60% or higher winning percentage. 

Milwaukee isn't likely to overlook this game after stumbling in game one against Boston.

Take the Bucks. 

*4 Star Play Under* I had the under in game 6 between these two and lost, but with the way the game played out I have to take the under again here in a win or go home situation for both teams.

In game 6 the tempo was just 92.5 possessions. That was the slowest game of the series thus far. The tempo tends to slow down as the games become more important. I would expect a slow tempo again here. 

The teams shot extremely well in game 6. Portland averaged a whopping 1.280 points per possession. During the season they averaged 1.136 points per possession. The Nuggets put up 1.174 points per possession in game 6, compared to their season average of 1.121. 

These teams allowed 1.080 (Denver) and 1.095 (Portland) points per possession on average in the regular season. 

If we take the tempo from last game at 92.5 and project that again here, which I think is a solid guess, and then give each team their season average in points per possession we would get a projected total of 209 here. If we use the points per possession that they allowed during the season overall we would get a projected total of 202. Both are clearly below this posted total.

There were 52 (out of 62) made free throws in game six, and in an average NBA game there are only about 45 free throws even attempted, and 35 made free throws is about average. If we get average free throws here that knocks off 17 points from last game. 

There were also 27 made 3's last game and the average for these two teams would be around 22.

Both teams averaged 30.8% offensive rebounds during the season, but they got back 44.0% and 33.3% of their misses in game 6. That should level out a bit in game 7.

There are plenty of reasons to like this one. Game 7's are definitely lower scoring on average and the offensive efficiency numbers were extremely high last game. This is the value play given the situation. If they shoot lights out again and it goes over the total so be it, but this is the type of play that will win more times than it will lose.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets blew away the Portland Blazers on Tuesday night. I think we'll see a different game on Thursday night in game six. 

Portland has their backs against the wall and they should respond with a much stronger effort here. Still, the Blazers aren't the same team without Nurkic on the inside. Kanter is banged up as well and he isn't the offensive force he could be when healthy. 

The pace of this series has been very slow. The average pace through the first five games is 94.43 possessions. The last two games have seen very high shooting percentages overall. In game 5, there were a whopping 61 free throw attempts. Neither of these teams get to the line all that often on average. 

The tempo generally slows down in these huge games, but even if we project a pace of 94.5 possessions both teams averaging 1.13 points per possession would still keep this game under the total. That is a very solid shooting night, and the defenses generally get better in these closeout games. 

I like the extra value on the under in this big of a game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Milwaukee Bucks were covering machines in the regular season this year. Milwaukee covered 61% of their games on the season. Boston covered only 50% of their games on the whole. 

I ran a query to test my theory that high ATS cover teams haven't been very successful ATS in the playoffs, especially against teams with a lower ATS cover rate. It turns out that theory was true. 

Teams with a cover rate of 52% ATS or higher against a team with a cover rate of 51% or lower in the NBA playoffs are 89-111 ATS in the last 200 games. On the road, they are 41-62 ATS in the last 103 contests. 

The Celtics didn't play up to expectations during the year, but they have loads of talent. The Bucks played great this year, but they are without one of their best players in Malcolm Brogdon.

Brad Stevens is an elite coach. Stevens has been a big money maker in the playoffs for bettors, and this is a specific spot where he has excelled. The Celtics are 16-1 ATS under Stevens when favored against a team with a straight up win percentage of 51% or higher in the playoffs. That number is 13-0 ATS in the first or second round of the playoffs.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star NBA Rockets/Warriors MONEY* The Houston Rockets lost a close one in Golden State in game one. There has been all kinds of talk about the officiating in the first game. The Rockets didn't get the benefit of the whistles in that one, and they weren't a bit happy with how things unfolded. 

Based on their anger and the fact that it has been such a big story the last couple days, I would tend to think that they get a more favorable whistle in this game. Additionally, Houston should be highly motivated to put forth its best effort in this one. 

Golden State isn't 100 percent right now. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are both dealing with injuries. Curry clearly hasn't been himself of late. 

James Harden didn't shoot the ball well in game one, and the Rockets still covered the spread and had a chance to win outright. 

Golden State is a great team, but I do think the Rockets are their toughest matchup in the NBA. Look for this game to go down to the wire.

Grab the points.

Take Houston. 

*4 Star Play Under* I took the under in Game 6 between these two and lost. I'm taking the under again in Game 7. There are quite a few reasons for this play. 

First of all, game 6 and game 7's in the NBA playoffs have been very good to under bettors. The under is 95-67 in Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs since 2005. That's a good starting point.

Game 6 finished at 223 points, 12 points above this total. There were a lot of reasons that game 6 was high scoring that you wouldn't expect to be replicated here. 

-The Spurs averaged an insane 1.333 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.122 points per possession during the season.

-The Nuggets averaged 1.144 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.121 points per possession in the regular season. 

-The Nuggets got 39% of their misses back in Game 6. They led the league in offensive rebounding percentage, but their percentage in the season was 30%. 

-The Spurs got 29.7% of their misses back in Game 6. They averaged only 24.6% offensive rebounding percentage in the season.

-The teams turned the ball over on only 7.8% and 8.9% of their possessions in Game 6.

Finally, the pace of the game was just 90 possessions. That was easily the slowest paced game in the series thus far. The bigger the stakes the more likely the game is to slow down. If this game plays to 92 possessions (2 quicker than last game), both teams could shoot their season average and this game would finish 5 points under the total.

With game six being high scoring because of amazing shooting numbers, we get extra value on this game. If they shoot lights out again so be it. This is the right play to make as far as value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clippers stunned everyone by winning at Golden State again in Game 5. We head back to LA for Game 6, and I see value on the under here.

There were 250 points scored in Game 5. A closer look at the shooting percentages and the tempo in that game makes me like the under here. Why? Game 5 was played at the slowest pace of the series. A tempo of 97.5 possessions. Each of the last three games has finished with a slower pace than the previous contest.

How did they score so many points last game? Extremely high shooting percentages and more offensive rebounds than normal. The Clippers averaged a whopping 1.316 points per possession. The Warriors averaged a really impressive 1.247 points per possession. 

The Warriors defense is better than they showed last game, and Steve Kerr was really unhappy with their defensive effort. I expect better defense from them in this contest.

If we get the same tempo as last game, and I think that's a good guess, both teams could average 1.18 points per possession and the total points would be at 230 points.

These teams can shoot the ball well, but this is an extremely high total for game 6 in the NBA playoffs.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The San Antonio Spurs go home down 3-2 to the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs were up 2-1 in this series, but have had a couple poor performances in a row. You would expect a really well-coached team like the Spurs to play better in a game like this one. 

These two teams rank 23rd and 25th at getting to the free throw line. The Spurs rank 2nd at defending without fouling. The Nuggets rank 12th. Unless the refs turn this thing into a ref show, you wouldn't expect a lot of free throws here.

The average pace in the last 3 games of this series has been 93.5 possessions. At 93.5 possessions, both teams averaging an impressive 1.10 points per possession would lead to a projected total at 205.7 points. 

As the games get more important, the defense generally turns it up a notch in the NBA playoffs. The tempo tends to slow down a bit more as well. 

Here's a system to consider:

First round of the NBA playoffs with a total of 191 to 209

-Home team with a win percentage of 60% or lower

-Spread between home team -4.5 and +7.5

-The percentage of tickets on the under is 45% or lower

In this situation the under is a whopping 47-10. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors lead the Clippers 3-1 and they are a big favorite here to finish out this series. 

Golden State dropped game two to the Clippers. Golden State played the ultra fast paced game that the Clippers wanted in that game. The Warriors have turned the dial on the tempo the last couple games. 

Golden State averaged 1.149 points per possession in the regular season. In this series, they are at 1.186. 

The first two games were played to a pace of 108.5 possessions. The last two games in this series have played to 99.75 possessions. 

If we assume there will be around 100 possessions in this game- the Warriors could average 1.9 points per possession (119 points) and that leaves the Clippers needing to score more than 113 for this to go over.

Two of the best under refs in the business are calling this game in Goble and Davis.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Super System CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic are down 2-1 to the Toronto Raptors. All three games in this series have stayed under the total. In fact, they have all stayed under this total, which has been adjusted down a bit. 

These two teams have played 7 games this year. The average final total in those games has been 202 points. These teams are consistently playing at a slow tempo against each other. 

Toronto ranks 22nd in the NBA in free throw attempts per game. Orlando ranks dead last in free throw attempts per game. Orlando is 5th best at not fouling on defense. Toronto is 11th best at not fouling on defense.

Both of these teams are below average at getting second chance opportunities. 

The Raptors have some serious defensive talent on their roster now. Kawhi Leonard is as good as they come on defense. Danny Green is a very good defender. Marc Gasol is a good defender in the low post. Serge Ibaka is a very good defender as well. 

The Magic are scrappy on defense and they will make Toronto work on the offensive end.

There's a big system that this game fits.

-A 1st round NBA playoff game

-The total of 191 to 209

-Home team win percentage of 60% or lower

-Road team win percentage of 50% to 73%

-Home team favored by 4.5 points or is an underdog

In this situation the under is a stunning 62-19 in the last 81 (76.5%).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers controlled the tempo and had a very real chance to win the game in Boston in Game 2. Indiana led by 2 points with 52 seconds left. The Pacers losing by 8 and failing to cover 7.5 is one of the worst NBA beats I've ever seen.

Indiana knows they need this game badly. They aren't likely to change their game plan here. Their game plan was working in game two. Keep the Celtics out of transition and use the clock on offense. 

The shooting numbers weren't all that bad last game, but the game only got to 190 points. The game was played to only 94 possessions. I think Indiana gets their preferred tempo again here.

Boston ranked 29th in the NBA at getting to the free throw line during the regular season. Indiana ranked 25th. These two don't normally get to the line much. 

The under is 20-7 in the Pacers last 27 games against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 

Take the under.