*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Washington Wizards host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night. Oklahoma City is a completely different team without Andre Roberson. Roberson is one of the best defenders in the league, and he is also a liability on the offensive end. Oklahoma City is a much better over team without him on the floor.

Oklahoma City's offense took a while to get going this year, but they have gotten going in a huge way of late. In the last six games, the Thunder rank first in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging a whopping 1.219 points per possession. Golden State is second at 1.153 points per possession. The Thunder are 21st in the NBA in points per possession allowed on defense in that time span.

Washington ranks 27th in the league in defensive efficiency in their last six games. The Thunder and Wizards both rank in the top 12 in the NBA in tempo during the last six games.

The Thunder are averaging 122.5 points per game in their last six contests. They have scored 121 or more in 4 of their last 5 games. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Dallas Mavericks haven't been good at home against the spread in the last few seasons. The Miami Heat are a really good road team. 

Dallas is only 69-99 ATS in non-conference home games since the start of the 2006-2007 season. That's 41% ATS covers. 

Miami is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games with zero or one day of rest when it is the first game of a road trip. 

Miami is the healthiest they have been in a long time. Having Whiteside back in the middle makes this a completely different team. Winslow is a nice versatile player who missed a bunch of time recently, but is back healthy now. 

Dallas isn't going anywhere this year, and they know it. The Heat are a well-coached team with a lot to play for. Miami is being undervalued by the oddsmakers, and I expect them to continue their recent strong performance. This team has gotten better throughout the year consistently with Spoelstra at the helm.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Toronto Raptors host the Utah Jazz on Friday night. Utah has Rudy Gobert back in the lineup now, and he's one of the best defensive players in the NBA. That changes the look of this Jazz team. 

Utah is without Rodney Hood for this game. Hood is the team's second leading scorer at 16.7 points per game. The Jazz have struggled mightily on offense in their last two games without him. Utah scored 90 points against Atlanta and then scored only 98 in an overtime game at Detroit. 

Toronto is fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the year. The Raptors are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in home games this year. Utah is third worst in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the road. 

All 3 referees for this game are under refs in their careers: Forte has a 53.8% under rate, Callahan has a 52.5% under rate, and Goble has a 54% under rate. That's a nice bonus here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA ATS Play of Day* The Toronto Raptors are well rested here, and I expect a strong effort. Toronto last played on January 20. The Raptors are in a very favorable spot here. They are a good team coming off a loss and on the road against a subpar opponent.

Since 2005, road teams who have won 54% or more of their games, but are coming off a loss of 3 points or more are cashing at a 55.5% clip ATS. That's a great number when you consider it is a sample size of more than 1,000 games. Toronto meets this system.

The Hawks are coming off a win against Utah, but the Raptors have been dominated by the Raptors in both games this year. This is a tough matchup for Atlanta. Toronto won 112-78 and 111-98 earlier this year. 

I see this price as a nice value.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Boston Celtics were embarrassed in their own place on Sunday against Orlando. I consider Brad Stevens a tremendous coach, and I think he'll have this Celtics team ready to go here. 

Boston is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games. They are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following a loss. The Celtics defense has been the best in the NBA in the last ten games. The offense has been shaky, but I expect that to improve.

Lonzo Ball will miss this game due to an injury. Caldwell-Pope is questionable here and Kuzma is probable but is dealing with a finger injury. 

The Lakers have been better of late, but a well-rested Celtics team that is looking to bounce back from an ugly performance is one I want to back here.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons host the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday afternoon. 

Brooklyn started the season playing at an extremely quick tempo. They were among the top three in the NBA in tempo. Of late that has changed a lot. Brooklyn ranks 15th in the NBA in tempo in their last 8 games. The Nets rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. They are playing too much one on one and not moving the basketball. On the other end, Brooklyn is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency during this span.

Detroit ranks 19th in tempo in the last eight games. The Pistons are 21st in offensive efficiency during that time.

The under is 36-14-1 in the Pistons last 51 after allowing 100 or more last game. The best day for unders in the NBA long term has been Sunday's, by a large margin. I'll take the under at this high number.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NBA Game of the MONTH* The Portland Blazers host the Dallas Mavs on Saturday night. Both of these teams are far different than they were earlier this season. 

Portland started the season as a team that was one of the best defenses in the NBA for the first month or two of the year. That has changed in a big way. 

Dallas started the season playing slowly and struggling badly on offense. With the emergence of Dennis Smith Jr. this offense has been much better of late, and they have sped things up.

In their last ten games, Dallas ranks second in the NBA in offensive efficiency and Portland ranks 5th. Defensively, the Mavericks are 21st in the league and the Blazers are 24th in that time span. Both teams are playing at almost exactly the league average tempo during that time.

Portland has scored 110 points ore more in 8 of their last 10 games. The Mavericks have scored 114 points or more in six of their last nine games.

I think this number is too low based on how these teams played earlier in the season. The number hasn't been adjusted enough.

Take the over big.

*3 Star Thunder/Cavs ATS CASH* The Oklahoma City Thunder are fully healthy again. Andre Roberson is key to this team's defensive success. He's back and 100 percent again now. Oklahoma City is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency so far this season. What about the Cavs? They are 28th in defensive efficiency. 

Cleveland is an awful 3-23 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Thunder are well rested here, and they should be able to take advantage of Cleveland's terrible form right now.

Grab the points.

Take Oklahoma City. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a spot that they have struggled in the past couple seasons. Minnesota has been at their best against quality teams, but they haven't been good against the worst teams in the NBA. Minnesota is 13-31-1 ATS laying 9 points or less since the start of the 2015-2016 season on the road against teams with a win percentage of 43% or lower. In that spot against Eastern Conference teams they are 1-9-1 ATS. Minnesota is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. 

Minnesota has some marquee games coming up on their schedule, and if they were going to overlook someone, this would be the game they would overlook. 

The Magic have the rest advantage here having played only three games in the last nine days. The Magic are healthier again now, and I think they stay within this number.

Take Orlando. 

*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Miami Heat have been tremendous both on the road and on the second end of back to backs recently. 

Miami is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games on zero days of rest. What about on the road? Miami is 38-23 ATS in their last 61 road games. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games that follow a home game on a back to back schedule spot. 

Chicago was a spread darling for a bit when they got healthy at first, but the Bulls haven't been guarding anyone of late, and Miami ranks in the top six in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. 

Miami is much better than most people realize, and they are well coached. Winslow is back in the fold and that makes this Heat team that much deeper.

Take Miami. 

*4 Star NBA Totals System CASH* The San Antonio Spurs have been a great under team on the road against subpar opponents. In their last 78 games on the road against a team with a win percentage of 33% or lower, the Spurs have gone 50-28 to the under. That's 64% under the total. They are 4-0 to the under in this system this year. They are 9-1 to the under in their last 10 that fit this system.

This is a day game on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. These games have done great for the under in recent years, and I think it makes sense considering this is an odd schedule spot. 

The Spurs offense is 28th in the NBA in efficiency on the road. Defensively, the Spurs have been at their best in recent weeks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Monday Early Totals CASH* The Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets meet early on Monday to tip off the NBA's MLK Day action. 

These early start times are good for the under on the weekend, and in the past they have been very good to under bettors on Martin Luther King Jr Day as well. It makes sense because players aren't accustomed to the early tip times, and that usually causes a slower tempo.

In their last 8 games- Charlotte is 19th in the NBA in tempo and Detroit is 24th. In that span, Detroit is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte is eighth. Charlotte is 18th in offensive efficiency and Detroit is 25th during that span.

The under is at 61% in the last ten years in games that start at 4 pm EST or earlier between November and March where the home team is favored by 3 or more. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks host the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday afternoon at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks have really slowed their pace down of late. They rank second to last in the NBA in tempo in the past six games. New York also ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency during that period.

New Orleans has played quickly all year, but they have slowed down of late. The Pelicans are 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last six games. They are 14th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

Sunday day game unders have been a very profitable betting strategy in the long run. This one fits a system I like with the following filters:

-Sunday game that tips at 5 pm EST or earlier

-The home team has an average pace of 98 possessions per game or less on the year

-The game is played between October and March 

-The total is 191.5 or higher.

This one fits the system. I think this total is a few points too high considering the pace the Knicks are playing at.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were an over machine for quite a while. The books had to start posting their totals extremely high, and now they have gone under the total four times in a row.

Milwaukee is a team that plays slowly. On the year, the Bucks are 24th in the NBA in tempo. In their last six games they are 27th. 

Miami has been the slowest paced team in the NBA over the past few weeks. It has worked great for them to play slowly and win with defense. The Heat are on a big run that has vaulted them up in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. Over their last ten games, the Heat are playing more than 1.5 possessions per game slower than any other team in the NBA.

Sunday day game unders have been a very profitable betting strategy in the long run. This one fits a system I like with the following filters:

-Sunday game that tips at 5 pm EST or earlier

-The home team has an average pace of 98 possessions per game or less on the year

-The game is played between October and March 

-The total is 191.5 or higher.

This one fits the system. The system is hitting 60.1% unders in the past 10 years.

Take the under.  

*3 Star NBA Sharp Money ATS CASH* The Brooklyn Nets catch the Atlanta Hawks in a tough scheduling spot here. Atlanta is coming off a five game road trip out west. That trip finished in Denver on Wednesday night. Atlanta picked up a nice win and spent a lot of energy in that game.

Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA, and seeing them laying three points is strange enough, but seeing them lay three points coming off a long road trip in their first game back is even more head scratching.

Brooklyn is coming off a thumping at the hands of Detroit in their last game, and I would expect a much stronger effort here. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Brooklyn has been a very competitive team on the season overall.

This one fits a system of backing teams as an underdog off a very low scoring game as well. The bet percentage on Brooklyn is 59%, but 89% of the money is on them. The sharps like the road team here.

All three of the referees in tonight's crew have been favorable to road teams in the long run.

Take Brooklyn. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Dallas Mavericks offense has been tremendous in recent games. Dallas ranks second in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. They are second to only the Golden State Warriors. 

Dallas also ranks 6th in the NBA in tempo in the last five games. The Mavericks had previously been playing at a much slower tempo. Along with their strong offense, Dallas ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games.

Orlando has been pushing the pace all year, and they have been terrible on defense all season as well. The Magic are 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. They are sixth in tempo. 

I don't see much quality defense being played here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TAKEDOWN* The Toronto Raptors host the Miami Heat tonight. Kyle Lowry is out of the lineup for the Raptors. Lowry is definitely a key guy in the offense, and I expect them to slow things down a bit without him playing.

Miami is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Heat have shot blocking big man Hassan Whiteside back in the lineup, and that makes their defense much better.

The three referees in this game are some of the best under refs you'll find in the NBA. They have career under percentages of 54.8% unders, 54.6% unders, and 52.9% unders. That's definitely a nice boost to the under here.

The under is 60-29-1 in the Heat's last 90 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

The sharp money likes the under here. Only 28% of bets are on the under, but 69% of the money is on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz meet on Sunday afternoon in Miami. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games against one another. Earlier this year, they played to a 84-74 game. Six of their last seven meetings have finished at 195 points or less.

Miami is much better defensively now that they have Whiteside back in the middle. The Jazz defense isn't as good without Gobert, but they are still better than league average there. 

Miami ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA in the past eight games. The Jazz rank as the fifth slowest in tempo during that time. Utah also ranks dead last in offensive efficiency. 

Sunday day unders have been a strong angle in recent years- and when you have a home team playing at 97.8 possessions or fewer on the season and the game is played at 5 pm EST or earlier on a Sunday the under is hitting 61% in the last nine years. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA on ESPN CASH* The Washington Wizards are healthy once again, and their offense has taken off since they got everyone back in the fold. Washington has scored 111 points or more in five of their last six games. The Wizards have scored 121 or more in three of those contests.

Memphis isn't playing as slow as they did earlier this year. They rank 19th in the NBA in tempo in the last six games. The Grizzlies have gotten some very good offensive production out of Tyreke Evans. Memphis ranks 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.146 points per possession in their last six games. What about Washington? The Wizards are third in that same stat, averaging an impressive 1.164 points per possession. 

Both of these teams have been big under teams for the season as a whole, which gives us line value here. Now that they have changed their stripes, I'll look to go over the total with them in spots.

I think this number is too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a buzzer beater loss at home to Golden State. The team sounded deflated after that game, and I think there will be some lingering effects of that tough loss here. 

Dallas is just 2-8 ATS at home this year against teams with a losing record. They are 1-9 ATS on the year against teams with a win percentage of 43% or lower. 

Chicago is coming off a couple close losses at home. The Bulls have really played well with Mirotic in the lineup, and I think it might do them some good to go back on the road, where they have been great against the spread. The Bulls are 8-4 ATS this year on the road against teams with a winning record. 

The Mavs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a 40% win percentage or lower. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Lakers are expected to get Brook Lopez back tonight. Lopez is averaging 12.8 points per game on the year. Kyle Kuzma is probable as well, and beat writers have reported the coaching staff says he will be available to play.

Andre Roberson is out for Oklahoma City in this one. That's key because Roberson is one of the best defenders in the NBA. Roberson is also a major liability on offense. Without him, the Thunder are better on offense and much weaker on defense. Roberson has missed three games due to injury this year, and the Thunder have allowed 116 points in two of the three games.

The Lakers are allowing 1.174 points per possession in their last three games. That is second worst in the NBA during that stretch. OKC is allowing 1.122 points per possession, which is 22nd.

The Thunder offense has been much better in recent games. They struggled much of the year on this end, but OKC is second in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games.

In Eric Lewis and Zach Zarba, two of the three officials in this game are big over refs. The over is 368-336 in Zarba's games. The over is 355-317 in the games Lewis has been a referee.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia 76ers do play quickly, but because their offense isn't efficient and their defense is very good, they still rarely have extremely high scoring games.

In the last six games, the 76ers are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are also 28th in offensive efficiency. 

Phoenix ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last six games. The Suns clearly aren't playing at the ultra quick tempo they did earlier this year. Phoenix is 25th in offensive efficiency in the last six games in the NBA, and they are a solid 10th in defensive efficiency.

This high of a number is usually reserved for elite offenses or the worst defenses in the NBA. These teams don't fit that bill.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City and Dallas Mavericks have both shot the ball extremely well in recent games. They should regress soon. Dallas set a franchise record with 22 made 3 pointers in their last game (22/39 from long range). They aren't likely to do that again. 

What about the pace here? In the past ten games, Oklahoma City ranks dead last in the NBA in tempo. Dallas ranks 27th out of 30. This game should be played at an extremely slow pace. 

This is a New Year's Eve game, and these holiday games have trended under in the long run pretty heavily. The tendency of players to want to be done and play through a quicker game with lower scoring second halves makes a lot of sense to me.

Marc Davis is one of the referees in this one and the under has hit in 54% of his games in his career.

The under is 29-14-2 in the Mavs last 45 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 9-4 in OKC's last 13 home games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans host the Dallas Mavericks tonight. This total is set at such a high level because the Pelicans have been an over machine of late. Two of their last nine games have gone into OT though, and that certainly isn't a predictive trend. In time, Pelicans numbers have to get too high. I think this number is too high.

Dallas plays at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last ten games. Finding a total of 212.5 with a team playing that slowly is very rare. 

This meets a system I like to use on fading hot shooting teams. Both teams have shot much higher than their season averages in their last 2 games combined. When both teams have shot that much over their average and the game is a divisional game (this one is), the under is a very strong look.

All three referees in this game are big under refs. All 3 refs have a career over/under mark of at least 53% to the under. That is as good as you'll ever see from a ref crew.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Milwaukee Bucks are third in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. The Chicago Bulls are 9th in offensive efficiency in that span. Milwaukee has routinely been putting up really big numbers. Chicago's offense has been much better because of two reason: Kris Dunn's breakout performances at point guard, and Mirotic returning and providing a big spark.

Ed Malloy is one the officials in this game, and he has been one of the best over referees in the NBA. 

In their last ten games, Milwaukee ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 1.115 points per possession.

Chicago has picked up the pace significantly with Dunn running the show and playing well. The Bulls rank fourth in the NBA in tempo in their last five games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Christmas 100% System Play CASH* The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards meet on Christmas Day NBA action. 

The under has had great value on Christmas Day in the past ten years. Overall, the under is 32-18-2. What makes the angle stronger? Non-division games between good teams.

In games played at 9 pm EST or earlier on Christmas Day with two teams with a win percentage of 50% or better- the under is a whopping 18-0 in the last 18 games. This game fits the system. 

The Wizards offense was great last game, but in general of late they have been poor. Washington ranks 24th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last 7 games. They rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that span.

The Celtics rank in the bottom five in the NBA in tempo. They should keep the pace low. 

Christmas Day games are certainly unique, and I see this one staying under the total. We'll go with this system backed play.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Washington Wizards play on Christmas Day in Boston. That means the time they celebrate with their families is tonight after the game and early tomorrow. 

Games around Christmas have slanted pretty strongly toward the under for everyone, but the trend is 60% unders in the last 8 years for teams that are slated to play on Christmas Day. It makes sense to me. They want to get done with the game and get home. 

Even if we took that angle away, I think there is value here. The Magic are expected to be without Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon. Without those guys, this offense is a mess. Orlando is averaging a miserable 0.953 points per possession in their last five games. They have been short handed during this period. That's dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Washington ranks 27th at 0.981 points per possession during that time.

I expect a sloppy game here. This total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA ATS  Bookie SMASHER* The Houston Rockets have won 16 of their last 19 games by at least 11 points. Houston is absolutely rolling right now. Chris Paul and James Harden have been a great match in this D'Antoni offense. Also, the Rockets are much improved on defense. How much so? Houston ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. 

Milwaukee allows a league worst 40.1% from 3 point range. What do the Rockets do? They hoist a ton of long range jumpers, and they should get a lot of open looks here today. Houston shoots almost 10 three pointers per game more than anyone else in the NBA.

Milwaukee is a decent team, but the Rockets are a couple clear steps above them. Milwaukee had long travel for this one on a back to back, while Houston was at home for both games.

Lay the points.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* Austin Rivers is averaging 14.5 points per game for the year, and since Blake Griffin went out, Rivers had consistently been one of the team's top scorers. Rivers was out last night and the offense looked disjointed. Danilo Gallinari is still out with an injury as well. The Clippers don't have a go to guy on offense.

Miami has played at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last four games. Miami is 19-9 to the under so far this year, and I don't think oddsmakers have caught on to their slower tempo just yet.

Brian Forte is a referee in this one, and he is one of the strongest under refs in the league.

This one has gotten pushed up to an awfully high level considering both teams are dealing with key injuries and the tempo should be very slow.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA TGIF Total Domination* The Washington Wizards are a different team with John Wall at the point. Washington had to slow down their pace without him in the lineup. With him, they obviously like to push because of Wall's elite speed. 

The Los Angeles Clippers defense has been terrible in the past month. This team is giving up way too many open looks, and the Wizards have the shooters to make them pay.

The last four meetings between these two teams have finished at: 223 points, 227 points, 257 points, and 225 points. 

The Clippers still have a league average or better offense, but their defense is near the bottom of the league. 

Washington has seen 7 of their last 8 stay under the total, which has moved this number down to a nice value. With Wall back, their style of play should change.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Bookie CRUSHER* The New York Knicks are 1-8 away from Madison Square Garden this year. Brooklyn is quietly playing some good basketball of late. 

The Nets rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past seven games. That's hard to believe, but it's true, and it is why the Nets have been on a great ATS run of late. 

Brooklyn has been underpriced by the oddsmakers all year, and I don't think they have caught up yet. This is a team that is scrapping and doing all the little things that many teams in the NBA don't do.

The Knicks aren't as good as their overall record. New York is definitely weaker without Tim Hardaway Jr. in the lineup as well. He was averaging 17.8 points per game. 

Brooklyn has the upper hand here, and I'll take the moneyline at this price.

Take Brooklyn. 

*4 Star NBA Celtics/Pistons CASH* The Boston Celtics are coming off a tough loss to San Antonio on Friday night. This Celtics team has proven very resilient this year, and they are coached by the second best coach in the NBA in my opinion in Brad Stevens. 

Detroit is a good story this year, and I think they are a decent team, but I don't see them on the same level as Boston. Van Gundy is a good coach, but he isn't on the same level as Stevens. The Pistons don't play the type of defense that Boston does. 

Earlier this year, Detroit went into Boston and won outright as big underdogs. The Pistons celebrated on the court afterwards, and many Boston players made note of the larger than normal celebration. Kyrie Irving said of this revenge game in Detroit, "Can't wait. Can't Wait." 

Taking good teams (55% Wins or better for the year) off a loss and on the road as a 4 point favorite or less is 57.3% ATS in the last 10 years. 

How about Brad Stevens' teams on the road? When his teams have been either underdog or favored by 2 or less on the road- they are 80-51 ATS in their last 131 (61.1%). 

Boston gets back on track and gets some revenge.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Orlando Magic are without their top two scorers. Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier are both out for this one, and it will be really hard for the Magic to replace those two. Look for a disjointed offense from Orlando for this game. 

Atlanta has slowed the pace down a bit in recent games. The Hawks weren't having any luck trying to outgun opponents. They have played improved defense in the last few games, and I expect that to continue here. 

Marc Davis is one of the best under referees in the NBA, and he's part of the crew doing this game.

I don't think there has been enough of an adjustment to the total with Orlando's top two scorers out.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Celtics/Spurs Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics meet in San Antonio tonight. Boston has been the most consistent team in the NBA this year. San Antonio has played very well despite missing Leonard.

I consider these the best two coaches in the NBA. They are both defensive minded. Boston and San Antonio both like to play at a slow tempo, and I expect there to be a much smaller amount of possessions in this game than a normal NBA game.

San Antonio has been a good under team in the past ten years on their home floor. They have been an exceptional under team at home when playing against good opponents. The under is at 62% in the Spurs home games vs. a team with a win percentage of 65% or higher in the past ten years. In their last 30 home contests vs. a team with a win percentage of 65% or higher, the under is an impressive 23-7.

53% of the bets in this game are on the under, but the money is almost 85% on the under. The sharps are on the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Golden State Warriors are far and away the best team in the NBA. Stephen Curry will miss this game with an injury, but even without Curry I rate the Warriors as the best team in the league.

This game provides the Warriors with a spot to showcase how good they are without Curry. Expect the rest of the stars to step up their game here.

The top three teams Charlotte has played at home are Houston, Cleveland, and San Antonio. They have lost all three of those games and each of them have been by at least 8 points. Now, they play an even better Golden State team.

Golden State is a whopping 55-34 ATS since the start of the 2015-2016 season when they are favored by 10.5 points or less. 

Lay the short number with the best team in the NBA.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star NBA Spurs/Thunder Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs weren't playing the kind of defense we expect at the start of the season. They have improved that dramatically in recent weeks. San Antonio ranks first in the NBA in the past 8 games in defensive efficiency. The Spurs also rank dead last in tempo in their past ten games. They are slowing things down and winning with defense.

Oklahoma City ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season. The Thunder rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency though. What about the Spurs? San Antonio ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in offensive efficiency as well.

Sunday has been the best day in the NBA for unders by a large margin in the past ten years. I see this being a hard fought game where the defenses have the edge.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Situational Spot CRUSHER* The Detroit Pistons last played on Monday night when they were embarrassed by the Cleveland Cavaliers 116-88. Detroit has been excellent so far this year, and they have excelled at bouncing back from bad games. They had a long time to think about that ugly loss, and their motivation level should be very high here. 

What about Oklahoma City? They are coming off a great win over Golden State, but the Thunder haven't been a bit consistent this year. They have been certainly been disappointing on the whole. I'd want to see more than one great game from OKC before I trust them. 

Detroit is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record at home. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their last game. A 16-0 angle. 

Take Detroit. 

*4 Star NBA REVENGE Special* The Portland Blazers should be out for revenge here. The Blazers lost 98-97 at home to Memphis a couple weeks ago.  A lot has changed since that game though. Mike Conley is out for the Grizzlies, and he's their most important player. Conley had 20 points and 6 assists in that one point win in Portland earlier this year.

Conley isn't the one banged up for Memphis. Wayne Selden and Brandan Wright are out for this game as well. Tyreke Evans, who is second on the team in scoring, is listed as questionable for this game. 

Memphis has lost their last four games at home. The losses came to Charlotte, Orlando, Indiana, and Houston. Only one of those is really a high quality team. 

Portland has been playing great defense of late, while Memphis ranks in the bottom five in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games.

I like Portland to get their revenge here. 

Take Portland. 

*3 Star NBA Situational Spot Play* The Detroit Pistons have been very good so far this season. Drummond is a budding star and even his free throw percentage has gone way up from last year. Tobias Harris is a pure scorer, and the Pistons have been playing much better defense this year as well.

The Pacers are coming off a surprising win at Memphis. The Pistons are coming off a very close loss to Milwaukee on the road. 

Detroit is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a straight up loss. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when scoring 100 points or more last game. 

Detroit has been the more consistent team this year, and at this price I'll side with them.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off a blowout loss to the Houston Rockets. Memphis is a quality team, and I expect a better performance here.

This game fits into a nice long term system. The road team coming off one loss and the spread being 6 or less on either team: back the team off one loss if they have won 55% or more of their games on the season. This system is 58% ATS in the last ten seasons. Memphis is the play under this system.

Memphis has a big advantage down low here, and I think they'll take advantage. Milwaukee has been really inconsistent this year, and I think they are getting a little too much credit from the oddsmakers here.

Take Memphis. 

*3 Star NBA Situational Spot CRUSHER* The Miami Heat are playing their sixth straight road game. This road trip has been a really tough trip with a game at Denver at the beginning of the trip at altitude and a game at Utah at altitude in their last game. 

Miami fought hard to win a comeback victory in Utah on Friday. That game had to take a lot out of them. Now, they travel a long way to Detroit to take on a Pistons team that has been at home all week.

The Pistons have been terrific at home this year. Andre Drummond's improvement and Tobias Harris' offensive explosion have been behind their hot start. 

You couldn't blame Miami if they get down early if they look forward to the trip home after this long road trip. I think Detroit should stay focused for the entire game.

The Heat are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. An 11-0 angle.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star NBA on TNT Total SMASHER* The Cleveland Cavs have allowed 112 points or more in 9 straight games. The Cavs rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Houston's offense started the season slowly, but they are on fire of late. Houston ranks first in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last three games. Who is number two? The Cleveland Cavs.

Cleveland is playing faster this year, and Houston is always looking to run. I expect a fast tempo here and both offenses have clear edges at multiple spots vs. the opposing defense. 

I see a lot of open looks from 3 for Houston, and that usually means a big number for the Rockets. LeBron and company should put up a bunch here as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been playing tremendous defense so far this year. Oklahoma City ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Sacramento ranks second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They are likely to have a lot of trouble scoring in this one. 

Oklahoma City and Sacramento both rank among the five slowest teams in the NBA (pace of play) in the last five games. The Kings actually rank dead last in the NBA in pace for the season as a whole.

Oklahoma City should be able to get their points here, but I don't see there being enough possessions for this one to go over the total without really high shooting numbers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Early Bird Special* Sunday has easily been the best day of the week for unders in the NBA in the long run. Day game unders have the highest win percentage. 

This one is in Los Angeles, where it will be 12:35 pm when this one tips off. Day game unders 5pm EST or earlier start time with a total of 193 or higher are 34-15 (69.4%) in the last 49. Day game unders in general are above 55%. 

Miami's Hassan Whiteside is one of the best defensive players in the NBA. Whiteside missed several games earlier this year, and the Heat defense didn't look good. Since he has returned, the Heat have been a top ten defense in the league in terms of efficiency.

Both the Clippers and the Heat play at a pace that is slightly slower than the league average. Look for this one to stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics are playing great defense so far this year. Boston ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City ranks second in the league in defensive efficiency.

What about tempo of late for these two teams? Oklahoma City ranks 25th in the NBA at only 97.55 possessions per game in their last three games. Boston ranks slowest in the NBA at only 94.99 possessions per game in their last three games. That's more than a full possession slower than any other team in the league in their last three games.

It's rare you can get two teams playing great defense and playing slowly and catch a total of 205. Here we do, and I think it gives us solid value. There was a reverse line move on the under in this game at CRIS as well, and CRIS is one of the sharpest books there is. Another positive sign for this one.

The under is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 games vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 Friday games. A 10-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star TGIF NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz toyed with the idea of playing faster in the offseason, but they are back at the bottom of the NBA in tempo now that the season is here. Quin Snyder's team has likely determined they need to win low scoring games because they don't really have the offensive threats needed to win shootouts on a consistent basis.

The Toronto Raptors worked hard on defense in the offseason. Toronto actually ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency before being torched by Denver in their last game. They are now eighth in defensive efficiency. I expect Toronto to play much harder on the defensive end here.

Utah is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency now. The Jazz should get the tempo to their liking in this one. 

Six straight Utah Jazz games have stayed under this total in regulation despite the fact they have played the very fast paced Suns and Lakers in this period.

The under is 23-8 in Toronto's last 31 road games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Pelicans rank 21st in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and it's by a wide margin. Minnesota is allowing 1.133 points per possession on the year.

Minnesota ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. New Orleans ranks tied for 10th in offensive efficiency. 

We have a meeting between two teams who prefer to run and both struggle badly on the defensive end. I expect a lot of easy looks in this game. 

Minnesota ranks in the top five in free throws attempted this year, and New Orleans has committed the third most fouls per game of any team in the league.

I see a close high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Milwaukee Bucks fit into a nice system that has worked for many years of backing good teams after they were blown out. Backing a team with a 50% win percentage or better off a loss of 15 points or more is 56% ATS in the last five years. When the team is the road team, the percentage bumps up to 57.5%. Long-term, if you are getting edges that strong you have to play them as many times as possible.

Charlotte is coming off an impressive win over Memphis in their last game, and I don't feel they'll have the same kind of point to prove in this one that Milwaukee will.

Milwaukee is a team that entered the season rated higher thanCharlotte by almost everyone. Charlotte definitely doesn't deserve 3.5 points for homecourt advantage. The oddsmakers are suggesting Charlotte is a better team on a neutral court? I disagree. 

Add in the situation and I like the value even more. Grab the underdog here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star NBA Sharp Money NBA Side* The sharp money loves the Suns here. Only 45% of the bets are on the Suns, but 80% of the money is on Phoenix. Otto Porter has been ruled out for tonight's game for the Wizards. Porter is the team's third leading scorer, and he's the team's best three point shooter. He's also a very good defender.

Phoenix is on a back to back here, but teams on the second end of a back to back actually do well ATS in the first few weeks of the NBA season. It is later in the season that back to backs hurt teams.

Phoenix has played very well since Jay Triano took over. They are catching a big number here.

Washington has only covered 44% ATS in the last ten years as a home favorite of 3 points or larger. I'll fade the Wizards here.

Take Phoenix. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns meet on Tuesday night. Phoenix isn't the same team they were under Earl Watson. Jay Triano has encouraged the team to continue to play relatively fast, but he wants them to be more under control. He's also got the team working much harder on the defensive end.

Brooklyn isn't the same offensive powerhouse without Jeremy Lin. D'Angelo Russell isn't 100 percent right now, and Quincy Acy will miss this game. 

Brooklyn will play quickly, but this total is about as high as you ever see in the NBA, and I think the current Suns team should be lined differently than the Suns team from the start of the season when it comes to totals.

One of the best under refs in the NBA is Haywoode Workman, and he's part of the crew for this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Situational Spot Money* The New York Knicks traveled to Cleveland and stunned the Cavs last night. They have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. The Knicks are still not a good team. It's a lot to ask of a team like the Knicks to play really well in the second half of a back to back after trouncing a team like the Cavs in the first game.

Denver is better than their record. The Nuggets played yesterday and stomped Brooklyn. I think that kind of offensive explosion was what the doctor ordered for the Nuggets. This team has too many offensive weapons to have the kind of offensive efficiency they had early in the season. Denver's offensive efficiency was first in the league after the All Star Break last year.

The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 on the second half of a back to back situation. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings with the Knicks. A 10-0 angle. 

Take Denver. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* One of my favorite angles in the NBA to play is early games on Sunday going under the total. From the beginning of the season through March: the under is 214-144 (60%) in games played between 12 pm and 4 pm eastern. This game fits the system.

I see the Hawks as a team that is likely to struggle to score this year without much help for Schroeder. The Bucks are known for controlling the tempo and playing in the halfcourt. They ranked in the bottom five in the NBA in terms of tempo last season.

Ersan Ilyasova is a 11 points per game guy and he's out for the Hawks here. There isn't much reliable scoring on this team to start with.

At this level, I see value on the under in this early game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Houston Rockets were beaten last weekend by the Memphis Grizzlies.  Here's their chance for some quick revenge. Memphis went on a 20-2 run in Houston at the finish of that game to win. The Rockets remember that one well.

I expect a much better effort from Houston here. Yes, Houston is on a back-to-back spot here, but the Rockets are 14-3 straight up in their last 17 games on zero days of rest. This is a deep team that should be highly motivated.

Memphis is a team that most people had pegged in the #13 or #14 range in power rankings before the season. Houston is a top three team in the NBA. This line is an overreaction to Memphis' fast start.

Houston was jut 9/38 from 3 point range in the meeting between these two last weekend. I wouldn't expect that again here.

I think Houston gets their revenge here and ends their road trip with a win.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors have consistently been one of the best teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency the last three years. They have started out this season playing some really bad defense. Draymond Green and Steve Kerr both made extensive comments about this after their very tight win over Toronto a couple days ago. 

Golden State's defense will improve. This team has too many good defensive players and a defensive-minded coach. They aren't going to continue to be this bad. In fact, I imagine they will finish the year in the top six or eight in defensive efficiency once again.

Washington has made a focus on playing better defense this year. The Wizards rank 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Neither team ranks in the top five in pace in the NBA so far this year, and a total this high is extremely rare even for teams like Golden State.

It isn't an easy bet to make, but at this level I think the under holds value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Denver Nuggets were seen by many sharp handicappers as a potential breakout team this year. Their season win total was much higher than the Charlotte Hornets. 

Denver has started a bit slow. The Nuggets led much of the way against Utah on the road in the season opener before blowing it in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets then beat Sacramento handily before dropping a close one at home to Washington in their last game.

The Hornets have major injury issues. Expected to be out for this game are: Batum, Zeller, and Carter-Williams. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is questionable here. Denver is without any key injuries right now.

I think the market has overreacted to the early struggles of the Nuggets.

Taking road favorites off one loss in the NBA and favored in the past 10 years is 54% ATS. That's not a bad number considering the amount of games in the sample size. If you tighten the system to following:

Road team off one loss and the home team has a one game streak (either a win or a loss) and the road team coming off the loss is favored by 7 or less, it is 62% ATS in the last 10 years. 

Take Denver. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Timberwolves want to push the tempo more this year. Thibodeau's team has all kinds of offensive weapons. With Towns, Butler, and Wiggins this team has three very high level scorers. Teague is a solid point guard and he has good speed. The Timberwolves preseason games showed how quick they want to play. The team believes Teague is a great guy to have to help them speed up the game.

The Utah Jazz aren't going to go really fast this year, but Quin Snyder and his team have been adamant that they are looking to play faster than they did a year ago. 

While the Jazz have a good defense, the Timberwolves do not. In today's era of the NBA, this is a pretty low total. 

Minnesota's offensive efficiency and the pace point to an over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Opening Night Totals TKO* The Denver Nuggets offense absolutely took off after Jokic was given a bigger role in the offense in the middle of the season last year. After the All-Star break, Denver ranked first in the NBA in points per possession. The Nuggets are going to be a top five offense in the NBA again this year. They also want to push the tempo.

Utah is still going to be a solid defensive team, but the big change for Utah this year should be their tempo. Quin Snyder always has said he wants to speed things up. The Jazz haven't done it. Beat writers in the area said in practices the Jazz are playing significantly faster. While I don't like to read much into the preseason, the Jazz played quicker and averaged 112.3 points per game.

The posted total last time these two played was higher than this. Denver's totals were consistently 220 late last year. I know it can't be that high here with a very good Utah defense, but I see this as a chance to take advantage of some value on the over thanks to Utah's change of pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Washington Wizards are without Markieff Morris to tip off the season. For a team that isn't deep in the frontcourt, that's a significant injury. Washington is a veteran team at this point, and they are going to have a solid season again. Washington hasn't been good laying big points at home in recent years though, and I think there is plenty of reason to doubt them in this one.

The Philadelphia 76ers are no longer trying to lose. This is a team that brought in Redick in the offseason and has Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, Joel Embiid, and all sorts of young talent. Philadelphia still has some role players that played great down the stretch last year as well. The 76ers depth is better than average, and I see them as a highly motivated team starting off the season.

The Wizards are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 in the first game of the season. They are laying too much here. 

Take the points and the 76ers. 

*4 Star NBA Finals CRUSHER* The Cleveland Cavaliers averaged a ridiculous 1.361 points per possession in their win in game four. That is the worst defensive efficiency number Golden State has posted all year. 

Cleveland's record setting scoring means this total has been moved up by several points. While I don't love playing unders in the matchup between these two teams, this number is too high for me to pass it up. 

The pace has slowed down as the series has moved along here, and that generally happens as things tighten up and there is more importance on that game. Without record shooting numbers, it is hard to get a total score of 232 points. 

The regular season meetings between these two finished at 217. This is the highest total in NBA finals history. I'll look for a high scoring game, but not this high. The defenses improve here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Cavs/Celtics NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cleveland Cavs head to Boston looking to closeout the Boston Celtics. The Cavs have dominated this series for the most part, but you have to respect the way Boston has fought very hard the last couple games.

Boston completely changed the way they play when Isaiah Thomas went down with an injury. The Celtics can't try to play quickly without their main offensive guy. Boston has decided to post up Al Horford a lot and try to score in the post or pass it out of the post to get open 3's. The post ups have slowed the tempo of these games down a lot. 

The average tempo in games one and two was 95 possessions per game. In games 3 and 4, the pace was 90.1 possessions per game. That kind of tempo change is drastic, and it makes a posted total of 216 awfully high.

The Cavs are capable of shooting a great percentage from the floor, but they shot nearly 60% from the floor last game and the game still went under the total. The Cavs are averaging 1.20 points per possession and the Celtics are averaging 1.12 points per possession in the last two games. Those are very high efficiency rates on offense. Those are more likely to drop than go up.

Here's a system that backs this under play:

-The spread is between home team -3.5 and +12

-The home teams win percentage is 64% or lower

-The home team in this game lost the previous game by 5 points or more

-The total is 193.5 or higher

-The percentage of bets on the under is 42% or lower

In this situation, the under is a very impressive 41-15 in the last 56 (73.2%). This game fits this situation. 

Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Playoff 100% System SMASHER* The Boston Celtics were trampled over in game one of this series. Boston has a great coach in Brad Stevens, and I think he'll make some key adjustments in game two to make them more competitive. Since Cleveland is a much more talented team than Boston, the Celtics are best served to slow the pace of the game. They did in game one. They just need to play a lot better defense than they did in game one. Look for more doubling of LeBron and better switching from the Celtics in this one.

The first game played to a pace of 94 possessions. That was the slowest paced game between these two teams all season. It got to 221 points (one point over this total) because the Cavs scored 1.27 points per possession. The Celtics scored a decent 1.073 points per possession as well.

It's hard not to like the under when teams are playing that slowly and need to shoot such a high percentage. The Cavs are very capable of torching the nets, but at this number I have to take the under. 

There's a specific system that backs. Here's the playoff system:

-The home team lost the previous game by more than 6 points. 

-The spread is anywhere from home team -3.5 to home team +6.5. 

-The total is 195.5 or higher

-The road team allows 44% shooting or higher

-The home team allows 45% shooting or higher

The under is a perfect 13-0 in this system. Why? My theory here is the home team shows pride after being beaten at home last game, and they play better defense as the oddsmakers adjust the total upward. The under then gets more value. The mediocre defensive numbers make sense because we know that in the long run mediocre or poor defenses get much better in the playoffs because there is a lot more effort exerted on that end of the floor.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Monday Game 7 Red HOT CASH* The Washington Wizards and Boston Celtics meet in a crucial Game 7 matchup on Monday night in Boston. The winner moves on to meet the Cavs. The loser goes home for the year. 

The later you get in a playoff series in the NBA, the slower the tempo generally is. When a team is on the brink of elimination, they typically slow the game down and play much better defense. 

I had the under in game six, which cashed in easily. I don't expect the shooting numbers to be as bad in game 7, and the number has been adjusted lower. Still, I see value on the under. Why? Look at the pace at which last game was played. The average pace in this series has been almost 99 possessions. Last game, the game was played to a tempo of just 93.58 possessions. That's a dramatic difference and at that kind of pace it takes some very good shooting or a bunch of free throws to get past 210 points. 

A couple angles of note-

1. In Game 6 and Game 7 of the NBA playoffs- when the spread is 7 points or less and the under is getting 51% or less of the overall bets, the under is a whopping 73-37 in the last 110. That's 66.4%. 

2. In that same scenario from above- when the Boston Celtics are involved in the game- the under has cashed 13 straight times.

The Celtics have been elimination game under machines. Because the number has been dropped by a lot I won't make it a big play this time, but I will once again take the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Celtics/Wizards 100% System Play* The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards square off in Washington DC on Friday night. The Wizards took care of business in the first two games at home in this series, and they'll have to do that again here if they are going to keep their season going.

Throughout this series so far, both offenses have been extremely efficient. The tempo has averaged 99 possessions. The Celtics are averaging 1.13 points per possession. The Wizards are averaging 1.10 points per possession. Both of these are well above even their regular season averages. Generally, in the playoffs the offensive efficiency numbers go down.

I think this is an opportunity to get good value on the under. The later in the series we get, the slower the tempo generally becomes. The importance of the games mean better defense is played as well.

A couple great systems here. First, in a game 6 or 7 of the playoffs, when the spread is no more than 6.5 points and at least 50% of the overall bets are on the over, the under is a whopping 72-37 (66.1%). That alone is a tremendous angle.

Let's make it even better. In the Celtics last 12 games that fit this system, all 12 of them have stayed under the total. This is a perfect 12-0 under system on Celtics elimination games staying under the total.

This number is inflated by a few points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs meet in Game 6 in Houston. Kawhi Leonard is expected to play by many, but he is still listed as questionable for this one. 

The Spurs won in overtime in Game 5. That was a game that was played to by far the slowest tempo of any game in this series during regulation. The game finished at 217 points even with an overtime. 

Over the years I've found that the tempo slows down and typically the defenses get better when more is on the line. There's a bunch on the line here. Houston is looking to avoid elimination from the playoffs.

There's a strong system that backs this. In a Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs with the following information:

-Home team shoots 45% or better from the floor

-The home team win percentage is 67.5% or lower

-The spread is no more than 7.5 points in either direction

The under is a whopping 38-13 (75%) in these situations. This game fits this situation.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Washington Wizards had large leads in Boston in each of the first two games of this series. They ended up blowing both of those games, and now they have their back against the wall. They can't lose this game or the season is essentially over. 

I see Boston and Washington as two very equal teams. The Wizards have two stars in John Wall and Bradley Beal. I think they both play really well in this one. Isaiah Thomas is exceptional, but at some point you have to wonder if he is having to do too much for the Celtics right now.

What's the playoff system that supports this play? Here are the following things that go into it. 

-the team must be the favorite and be coming off two straight up and ATS losses

-there is reverse line movement in the game

-The team shoots 75% or better from the free throw line

-Their opponent is in the bottom ten in the NBA in rebounding

-The percentage of bets placed on this team is 55% or lower (not a big public play)

Backing this system is 18-4 ATS in the last 22 chances in the NBA playoffs.

The public is on the Celtics early, but there is large sharp money on the Wizards. It makes sense to me.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The San Antonio Spurs were absolutely throttled in game one of this series. The Spurs were down 30 points at halftime and this is a proud team that doesn't get beaten down like that. It will surprise me if we don't see a lot of effort from this Spurs team in game two.

The Rockets aren't going to make 22 three pointers every game. The Spurs are one of the best in the NBA at defending the three point shot. The Spurs are likely to be very focused on defense in this one after an embarrassing loss.

I have two systems backing this play strongly. The first is a simple one. Back a team that just lost by 25 points or more and has a 65% winning percentage or better on the year. That system is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 spots in the NBA playoffs.

The second system is similar, but slightly different- the team is coming off a loss of 11 points or more and is at home and favored by 13 points or less in their next game. That team must have a win percentage of 67% or higher. This system is 35-9 ATS (80% Winners) in the last ten in the NBA playoffs. 

I think this will be a tightly contested series and it won't surprise me if the Rockets win the series, but this is a strong spot for the home team.

Take the Spurs. 

*3 Star NBA Jazz/Warriors Late Night MONEY* The Golden State Warriors are the most talented team in the NBA. Golden State has had 8 days between games here, so the most talented team in the NBA has had all kinds of time to rest up and be ready for this series.

Utah played on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles and defeated the Clippers in Game 7. The Jazz and Clippers had a very hard fought series, and now Derrick Favors is questionable for Game One here vs. the Warriors. Rudy Gobert is still less than 100 percent as well. While the Warriors are in good shape coming into this series, the Jazz aren't.

There is a system where when a team is at home and has more than 4 days off they are hitting 65% against the spread in the playoffs in the last 10 years. That gets even better when it is a team that has covered 55% or less of their games on the season so far. The Warriors have covered 52%. This angle is 60-28 ATS (68.2%). 

Look for Golden State to rout the Jazz in game one.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star NBA Raptors/Cavs CASH* The Cleveland Cavaliers are clearly the best team in the NBA Eastern Conference. Still, the Cavs haven't played up to their potential this year. That's why we are able to get them at only -6 here.

I think this is a good spot for the Cavs to flex their muscles. The Raptors are 2-10 ATS in Game One of a playoff series, so they are notorious for their slow starts. LeBron James has been excellent in Game One in the NBA playoffs throughout his career. 

The Cavs last played 8 days ago. The long rest is helpful this time of the year. How much so? Teams with more than 4 days of rest are 70-38 ATS (65% wins) when they are favored by 9 points or less and they are at home. That fits here.

The Cavs are much better than the Raptors, and this price is a nice discount based on Cleveland's under performance overall. LeBron and the Cleveland stars are well rested which means they can play heavy minutes here.

Take Cleveland.  

*3 Star Clippers/Jazz ATS CASH* The Los Angeles Clippers didn't look good last game. Still, I can't pass up this many points with a team with Chris Paul leading the way. Paul has been clutch in many key games, and I think he will keep his team in the game here.

The Jazz weren't very good when laying big numbers during the regular season. Going against the public is a winning strategy in the NBA playoffs, and thus far the public is heavily on the Jazz. 

Doc Rivers and his team had two days off to get ready for this one, and I don't think a team with as many veteran leaders on it as the Clippers will go down easily. The Jazz are still a young team. The Jazz are a good team, but I'm not sure they are great. They are being priced like they are a great team here.

I'll take the generous amount of points.

Take the Clippers. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls are looking to try to stay alive after losing 3 straight to the Boston Celtics. 

The Bulls are expected to be without Rajon Rondo again in this one. Without Rondo, the pace of the games has slowed down drastically. The first couple games were pacing at about 97 possessions per game. The last three have been 93.5 on average. That's a big drop and it makes it hard to surpass this total. 

For some perspective, the 93.58 possessions the last 3 games have averaged out to is slower than any team in the NBA played on average during the regular season. We know that Game 6 and Game 7's in the playoffs often get slower. When there is so much on the line, the game slows down and the defenses usually get better.

In Game 6 and Game 7 situations, the under is a perfect 15-0 in the last 15 games with these specifics-

-The total is 191 or higher

-The spread is between home team -7.5 and home team +5

-The home team has won 60% or less of their games on the year

-The home team's defensive field goal percentage allowed is 45.6% or lower

This game fits the system. Look for a slower pace and a hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards play Game 6 of their series on Friday night. Game 6 and Game 7's in the NBA playoffs have been good under plays in general, and when you take a closer look at specific stats the trend gets even stronger.

When the home team in that game has won 62% or less of their games, and the under is getting 37% or less of the bets, the under is 26-8 in the last 34 games. That's a pretty strong trend.

The pace has slowed down in this series. The slowest game by far was Game 5. The Hawks have a much better chance of winning if they slow the game down. The Hawks ranked fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the regular season, but they ranked in the bottom five in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Atlanta needs to slop this game up to try to continue on to Game 7. 

With the importance of the game, 210 is an awfully high number. Backed by long-term trends, I'll definitely side with the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* This is a Game 6 where Memphis is looking to stave off elimination. NBA elimination games have typically been strong under plays, especially in particular situations. This game fits a couple of key situations.

When it is game 6 or game 7 in the NBA playoffs and the home team has a win percentage of less than 62%, and the spread of the game is between home team -6 and home team +7 points, the under is a whopping 48-19 (71.6%). 

These two offenses absolutely went off last game, and that caused the oddsmakers to move the number up. The Spurs scored 1.323 points per possession last game. The Grizzlies scored 1.231 points per possession. This is record territory. The pace was played to a VERY slow 85 possessions. If they keep playing at that pace, the under has significant value.

The Spurs were one of the top defenses in the NBA and the Grizzlies will fight hard defensively with their backs against the wall.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play PERFECTION* The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks played an extremely low scoring game in Game Four. That game finished 30.5 points under the posted total. This kind of huge difference from the posted total is going to create a response from the oddsmakers. We've seen that result in the posted total going from 195 last game to 191.5 in this game. 

Keep in mind that the posted total in the first game between these two was actually 200.5 when it first came out. A nine point adjustment from game one to game five is a huge adjustment. 

Toronto and Milwaukee are both underperforming drastically on offense compared to their season numbers. Toronto has been the least efficient offense in the NBA playoffs so far through four games. They are averaging only 0.94 points per possession. In the regular season, they finished sixth with 1.098 points per possession. The Milwaukee defense is no better than average, and I expect Toronto to shoot the ball better. Milwaukee's offense averaged 1.068 points per possession in the regular season. They are now at 1.014 points per possession in this series.

There's a strong system play backing this one. When the last game went under the total by more than 27 points and in the following game the home team is favored by 4.5 points or more, the over is a perfect 16-0 in the 16 times this situation has come up in the last 10 years.

The tendency is for the offenses to bounce back after such a terrible showing. With the strong angle and the reduced line, I'll take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Clippers/Jazz Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers meet in an important game four matchup in Salt Lake City. 

Utah won the first game in LA, but they have lost the last two games. Chris Paul put on a show to win the game for the Clippers late in the fourth.

Blake Griffin is out and Rudy Gobert is doubtful for this game. The under was 11-8 in the 19 games Griffin missed during the regular season. There's a lot more pressure on Paul to be great on offense when Griffin isn't in the game.

The pace of this series has been very slow. The average pace in the first 3 games is 91.5 possessions. These two teams are playing almost exclusively in the halfcourt. The shooting percentages have been extremely high in this series. Last game alone, the Clippers averaged a whopping 1.25 points per possession and the Jazz averaged 1.18 points per possession. That kind of efficiency isn't sustainable in the long run.

Look for things to go back to a normal rate. Remember, the first two games in this series stayed under the total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Afternoon MONEYMAKER* The Oklahoma City Thunder have successfully slowed the tempo down in this series. Now, they just need to get some improved defense. Still, the fact that the average pace in this series is 99.6 possessions per game is very telling. It's really difficult to consistently get to a total this high when you aren't playing any faster than that.

The free throw numbers have been really high the last couple games, and the Thunder shot better than 55% last game. That game still only cleared this total by 3.5 points. 

This game fits a nice long-term system. The team with the lower winning percentage is hosting the game and the spread is between -2.5 and +4.5 on the home team. The total is above 190.5. In this situation, the under is 58-23 (71.6%) in the last 81 games.

This total is several points too high. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs are no strangers to really low scoring games against each other. Though regular season games are generally higher scoring than playoff contests, 3 of the 4 regular season games between these two finished below this posted total. That includes one game that finished 95-89 in overtime. 

Memphis scored 1.238 points per possession last game against a really good Spurs defense. I don't think that is going to happen again. The Grizzlies aren't very efficient on offense this year, and the Spurs are good at guarding without fouling.

The tempo of each of these games has been really slow. The average pace of the games in this series has been 86.88 possessions. That is five possessions slower than the next slowest paced playoff series thus far.

The defenses should be better in this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets aren't playing all that fast in this series. The pace of the first two games averaged 100 possessions. That's much slower than the regular season games between these two teams.

The first game stayed under the total by a huge amount as Oklahoma City languished on offense. Game two went over this number by two points as there were 65 free throws in the game. 

There is an angle on this game that fits perfectly, and it is a very good long-term winner. The under is a whopping 57-21 in this situation. Here are the factors that enter the equation.

-The road team has a higher winning percentage on the year than the home team.

-The total is 190.5 points or higher. 

-The spread is within a range of -2.5 on the home team to +4.5 on the home team.

That fits this game perfectly. I see this total being a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Celtics/Bulls Red Hot CASH* The Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics have finished with 208 points total in each of the first two games. When you consider only that, the line of 207.5 makes a lot of sense. Let's look a little deeper though. 

The average pace is only 97 possessions per game through the first two. The Bulls are averaging 1.111 points per possession through the first two games. In the regular season, the Bulls averaged 1.046 points per possession. That kind of jump in offensive efficiency in the playoffs is almost unheard of. 

In the playoffs, defenses toughen up and the pace slows down because of the importance of the games. No game is more important than this one to the Celtics, who absolutely have to win this game. Look for improved defense from them here.

In the regular season, these teams met four times. None of those four games finished higher than 207 points. Playoff games are generally lower scoring, and I think the first two games being high is giving us value on the under. 

There is an angle on this game that fits perfectly, and it is a very good long-term winner. The under is a whopping 57-21 in this situation. Here are the factors that enter the equation.

-The road team has a higher winning percentage on the year than the home team.

-The total is 190.5 points or higher. 

-The spread is within a range of -2.5 on the home team to +4.5 on the home team.

Look for a return to normalcy and an under here. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Toronto Raptors were thumped in game one of this series as a significant favorite. The line in game one of this series opened at Toronto -6.5 or -7 at most books. They were beaten by 14 points at home.

Now, the line for this game sits at 7.5 points. Should be obvious to take Milwaukee and the points right? I don't think so. In fact, there is some great long-term data that backs up siding with the Raptors here.

Toronto is the better team, and they proved it during the regular season. The Raptors cannot afford to go down 2-0, and they know that. The Raptors have been in the playoffs and in this spot multiple times before (down early in the series), and they have responded well.

Here's the system- Play on a team that lost its last game by 11 points or more straight up. This team also is the home favorite in their next game. The team also has a higher winning percentage on the year than their opponent.

In this spot- the home favorite looking to bounce back is 43-13 ATS in the last 56 opportunities. 

This is one of those situations that you have to take. I'm on the home team.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star NBA Thunder/Rockets ATS CASH* Playing on the home team that is well rested has been a great long-term angle in the NBA. In fact, home teams that have had 4 days or more of rest have covered at a 63.9% rate in the past ten years in the NBA playoffs. 

Houston has had that rest, and the Rockets should be ready to go here. Oklahoma City relies very heavily on Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is a great player, but I think he has to do too much here. Patrick Beverly is a good defender and the Rockets will keep him on Westbrook most of the game. 

James Harden has been excellent for the Rockets this year, and his supporting cast is much better than Westbrook's. The Rockets shoot the three ball often, and the Thunder have been vulnerable against good three point shooting teams this year. 

Laying 7 points isn't all that much with a total of 228 points. 

Take Houston. 

*4 Star NBA Playoff Early Bird Winner* The Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks played four times during the regular season. Three of the four games went under the posted total. That's important because generally the defense ramps up significantly in the playoffs and games are lower scoring because of the importance of the game.

Both of these teams play at an average tempo, so there shouldn't be an extremely quick pace. These two defenses have matched up well in the past, and I expect them to be good again here.

Early games on Sunday have always been strong to the under, and first round playoff games have been good under plays in the past as well.

This game fits a nice playoff system: Play on the under in a first round playoff game that starts before 6 pm eastern and the total is at least 190.5. The under is 35-17 in the last 52 games that fits this system.

The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Regular Season Finale CASH* The Orlando Magic have decided to play much faster late in the season. In their last eight games, Orlando ranks fourth in the NBA in tempo. For the season as a whole, they rank 14th in the league in pace. The Magic are experimenting with a quick pace as the season comes to a close. 

Orlando's defense has suffered in a big way when they have experimented with playing faster. The Magic are dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. 

Detroit has some good young players who are getting some minutes now including Ish Smith at the point guard spot and Boban Marjanovic, and I see them being able to score on this bad Orlando defense. 

Orlando's offense is coming off one of their franchises worst all time offensive performances. After a game like that, it is generally a good idea to expect a much better performance. The shooting numbers are unlikely to be that bad again, and these professionals usually show some pride.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Phoenix Suns have been really good on offense down the stretch. Not only are they pushing the pace, but they are being much more efficient on offense in the last few weeks of the season. Tyler Ulis is doing a great job running the point for this team, and he is getting guys like T.J. Warren and Devin Booker more open looks.

The Sacramento Kings just gave up 135 points last game to the Houston Rockets. Sacramento has now allowed 117 points or more in three of their last five games. 

On the other side, Phoenix has allowed 120 points or more in six of their last nine games. The Suns defense is brutal. Offensively, Phoenix has scored 116 points ore more  in six of their last nine games.

Neither team has anything to play for, and I expect the tempo to be quick all the way in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Sunday Night 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves meet on Sunday night in a game that means nothing to either team. I'm not even sure either of these teams actually want to win this game. When you have no motivation to win a game, the first thing that goes is the defense.

At the end of the regular season, the over has done better than the under in the past few seasons, and that has been especially true in games between teams who have no shot at the playoffs. 

Minnesota ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 8 games. The Timberwolves aren't even pretending to try on defense right now. The Lakers aren't good on defense either. Minnesota has played faster of late, and I think this will be an uptempo game where both teams get a lot of easy shots.

The over is 7-0 in Minnesota's last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Pacific Division. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Los Angeles. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings overall between these two teams. A 23-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic appear to have given up on this season. Orlando has been extremely inconsistent all year. They have actually played better against good teams than they have against bad teams. That's generally a sign of not being 100% invested. At the end of the season, they are even less invested in this season.

Brooklyn is quietly playing some good basketball right now. The Nets are 6-3 straight up in their last 9 games. That's pretty wild considering they were 13-56 straight up before this streak at the close of the season.

I have tracked a late season trend that this game fits into very nicely. A team that has won 40% or less of their games, but has won 60% of their last 10 games has been a great team to back against a poor ATS team in the last week of the season. The Magic have covered only 39% of their games this year. Between games 78 and 81 of the regular season in the NBA, this angle is 20-1 ATS in the last 21 instances. 

Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Magic are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing record. 

I think Brooklyn wins this game, so sprinkling a little bit of your bet on the moneyline isn't a bad idea. My selection here though is Brooklyn plus the points.

Take Brooklyn. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Pistons aren't the same on offense without Reggie Jackson. He was averaging more than 14 points per game, and this team doesn't have many guys like him who can get their own shots at any time. 

Toronto was embarrassed by blowing a big lead last night, and the Raptors will want to bounce back here. 

This game is important to both teams with the Pistons still technically alive for the playoffs and the the Raptors fighting for positioning near the top of the Eastern Conference.

Both teams rank in the top 7 in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past ten games. Detroit ranks second to last in that same time period in offensive efficiency. 

Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the league in terms of tempo.

The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 games when playing on zero days of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games when playing against a team with a winning home record. 

The under is 8-0 in the Pistons last 8 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the Atlantic Division. A 31-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Chicago Bulls need wins badly right now. The New York Knicks don't really need anything other than to get to the postseason. The Knicks have nothing to play for, while the Bulls are trying to make sure they get into the playoffs. 

How did the Bulls turn things around? Jimmy Butler has been playing some great basketball of late, and he's been leading this team to much better performances. In his last 9 games, Butler is shooting 54% from the floor and is averaging 28.6 points per game.

The Bulls are driving the lane more and kicking it out for open long range jumpers. Chicago's offensive efficiency is way up in their last eight games. In fact, they rank in the top ten in the league in offense, after being at the bottom of the pack for a while.

Chicago's team chemistry is better now, and the Knicks are playing out the string.

Road teams fighting for a playoff spot and favored on the road against a team that is out of the playoffs have cashed at a clip of 62% in the past five seasons in the last 6 games of the regular season.

Take Chicago. 

*4 Star Sunday NBA BEST Bet* The Golden State Warriors have quietly been a tremendous under team of late. The under is a whopping 16-2 in games Kevin Durant doesn't play this year. 

Golden State has surprisingly slowed their tempo down drastically. I believe it was to focus on their defense, and it is working very well. Golden State ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last eight games. That means they are playing slower than the average NBA team during that period.

The Warriors are also first in the league in defensive efficiency during that time period. They are allowing only 0.978 points per possession in that period.

Washington ranks 11th in the league in tempo during the last eight games. The Wizards offense has been less efficient on the road by a large margin this year.

Taking the under late in the year when two good teams are playing against each other is a 60% plus angle in the past five years. 

The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The under is 10-1 in the Warriors last 11 home games. A 22-1 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Bucks and Dallas Mavs play a game that tips off at 2:35 central time on Sunday. These early start time games have trended strongly toward the under in the past few years, so that is a nice bonus for this one.

Dallas will be without Seth Curry here. Curry is averaging 12.8 points per game on the year. Milwaukee's Malcolm Brogdon is questionable with a back injury and he is averaging 10 points per game on the season.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in the NBA in tempo in the past month. The tempo should be very slow in this game. Neither of these teams are terribly efficient on offense either, and with some good offensive players missing, the defenses should have the edge.

The under is 7-3 in the Mavs last 10 road games. The under is 14-6 in the Bucks last 20 games. 

The early sharp money is on the under. I agree and I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 11th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. The Charlotte Hornets rank 27th in the NBA in tempo in that same period. I wouldn't expect the pace of this game to be all that fast, especially for a game with a posted total set this high.

The Charlotte Hornets defense has been really bad of late, but I expect that to show positive regression over the next few games. After all, Charlotte's defense ranks better than the league average for the year.

Oklahoma City is playing slightly better on defense of late, and the Thunder are much better on defense at home. 

The under is 7-0 in the last 7 Thunder games when playing as a home favorite with a total of 207 or higher. The under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 games in OKC between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets meet in a key Western Conference clash on Friday night.

Houston is coming off a loss last night to Portland in the late night game on TNT. James Harden is dealing with a minor wrist injury, and he shot only 2/13 from 3 point range on Thursday night. Harden also attacked the rim less frequently than normal.

Golden State beat Houston on the road earlier this week 113-106. The Warriors defense has been the best in the NBA in the past ten games in terms of efficiency, and it really hasn't been even close. Golden State is allowing only 0.957 points per possession in their last nine contests.

Golden State has also played at only the 13th quickest tempo in the league in their last nine games. The Warriors aren't running as much as they were in the past, and they are winning with defense.

This number is so high that it only takes one low scoring quarter to cash this one.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Rockets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 home games. An 18-0 angle.

Take the under.

*3 Star NBA on TNT CASH* The Portland Blazers and Houston Rockets meet in a key Western Conference clash on Thursday night.

Houston is a really good team, but this is a tough situational spot for them. They lost a tough one against Golden State in their last contest. That was a game they put a lot into. Now, they come to play Portland. Who do they play on Friday night? Golden State. They go to Golden State to play the Warriors for the second time in the past week. 

If you are Houston, if you are going to overlook any game in this week it is going to be this one. Portland isn't going to overlook any game right now. The Blazers absolutely have to keep winning or they won't make the playoffs. 

Portland is playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Blazers were bad on defense most of the year, but they have ranked in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in each of the last three weeks. This team has a great homecourt advantage, and they are in a good spot here.

Portland has double revenge in mind here for this season, and revenge angles do really well this time of the year. I think the Blazers win a key game for them on Thursday. 

Take Portland. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs host the Golden State Warriors Wednesday night. This is obviously a big game for both teams. 

There is a strong system that I follow late in the season in the NBA. In the system, you play the under when two good teams are playing each other on or after game number 58 of the regular season. If both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher, and the game is a conference game, the under is hitting at a 60% clip in the last ten years.

Recently, I decided to take this system a step farther. When the home team plays at a pace of 96.2 possessions per game or slower on average, the under is a whopping 114-59 (66%) in the last ten years. This game fits this system as the Spurs average 96.1 possessions per game.

Golden State ranks only 12th in the NBA in tempo in their last 9 games. The Spurs rank 25th. The Warriors have slowed things down without Durant, and the Spurs have been slow paced all year.

Golden State is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last nine games, and it isn't even close. The Spurs are fourth in the league in defensive efficiency in that span. Expect a tight game where the defenses work very hard.

The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their last game. 

The under is 3-0-1 in the Spurs last 4 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two in San Antonio.

A 35-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors meet on Tuesday night in a big clash in the Western Conference. Obviously you don't think of unders when you think of these two teams, but Golden State has changed their stripes of late. This will be a contrarian play, but I'm taking the under here.

Golden State ranks 13th in the league in tempo in their last ten games. Earlier in the year, Golden State ranked 1st in pace of play. Narrow it down even more, and you'll see that Golden State ranks 21st in pace of play in their last five games. The Warriors have slowed things down in a big way. 

Golden State also ranks first in the NBA by a wide margin in defensive efficiency in the last ten and last five game sample sizes. Houston has been a league average defense this year.

Golden State ranks only 9th in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. 

With a total set at 234, this is set at such a high level that any one quarter being low should keep it under the total.

The under is 13-1 in the Warriors 14 games this year when playing without Kevin Durant. The under is 38-14 in the Warriors last 52 games. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams.

The first two meetings between these two both stayed under the total in regulation. In this one, the Warriors don't have Kevin Durant's 25.3 points per game. The Rockets also don't have Ryan Anderson's 13.5 points per game due to an injury.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Sunday Late Night MONEY* The Portland Blazers are fighting for their playoff lives. The Los Angeles Lakers are tanking. 

The Lakers backed into a win in their last game with an overtime victory over Minnesota. That hurt their lottery chances, and I'll be surprised if the Lakers put a lot of effort into this game.

Portland is one game behind the Nuggets for the eighth spot in the Western Conference standings. The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Portland has won three straight on the road. Those were wins over the Spurs, Hawks, and Heat. This is a big step down in class.

While Portland did play last night, the back to back travel thing doesn't worry me much in this case. It isn't a long trip, and the Blazers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 on the back half of a back to back. The Blazers are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their last game. The Lakers are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more last game. A 21-1 angle.

Take Portland. 

*4 star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls have been terrible on offense of late. In their last 12 games, the Bulls ranks 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They are middle of the pack on the defensive end.

Milwaukee ranks sixth in defensive efficiency during that same time frame. The Bucks are middle of the pack on offense.

Milwaukee also ranks 29th in the league in tempo in their last 12 games. The Bucks have slowed down the pace drastically of late. Chicago ranks 18th, so they are slightly slower than the average team as well.

The oddsmakers haven't adjusted this number down enough for the new tempo Milwaukee is playing at of late.

The under is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 home games overall. The under is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. A 17-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angeles Lakers take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night. The posted total here is high, but it isn't high enough.

In the past six games, the Los Angeles Lakers rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and it isn't even close. Los Angeles is allowing a ridiculous 1.209 points per possession in their last six games. They've clearly given up on this end of the floor.

The second worst defense in the NBA in the last six games is the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are allowing 1.142 points per possession during that time. 

Both teams rank near the middle of the pack in offensive efficiency. The offenses should get plenty of open looks in this one. 

The Lakers continue to push the pace, and they rank in the top five in the NBA on a consistent basis in tempo. 

This game fits a nice late season over angle. Two teams who both have a winning percentage of 45% or less and the spread is 7 points or less either way. The game must be played in the last 12 games of the regular season. In the past ten years, in these spots, the over is hitting at a 61% clip.

The over is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the Timberwolves last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 20-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Oddsmaker ERROR* The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off a blowout loss at home to the Golden State Warriors. They were down 26 points at the end of the third quarter in that game. That is particularly bad considering Kevin Durant wasn't playing for Golden State.

Oklahoma City is very likely to win this game, but I'm just not sure why they would be motivated to crush the 76ers. The Thunder play Houston and Dallas on the road in their next two games, and those are much bigger games for them.

Philadelphia has been a money making machine this year. The 76ers continue to play hard despite being overmatched. The 76ers are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. 

Oklahoma City is too big of a favorite here, and I'll take the double digits on the underdog.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Chicago Bulls have been the worst offense in the NBA in the past ten games, and it isn't even close. Chicago is averaging 0.978 points per possession during that time. The second worst offense during that time is averaging 1.02 points per possession. Chicago ranks ninth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games.

The Toronto Raptors rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Raptors have been able to manage pretty well without Kyle Lowry thanks to their improved defense. They should play well against this bad Chicago offense. On the other side, Toronto's offensive efficiency numbers are down without Lowry, and that should come as no surprise.

A look at the recent pace of both teams shows both of these teams in the bottom ten in the league in tempo. Chicago is actually in the bottom five in tempo in their last five contests.

The under is 8-2 in the Bulls last 10 games. The under is 11-5 in the Raptors last 16 games. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NBA Saturday Night CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks are now playing at the slowest pace of any team in the league, and it isn't even very close. If you look at their last 11 games, Milwaukee's games are nearly a full possession per game slower than anyone else in the NBA. The Bucks have decided that they want to win games by slowing things down and winning low scoring contests.

Golden State's offense is obviously very good, but on the whole, they have been a lot less efficient than normal of late. Their totals continued to be posted too high. The under is a whopping 36-17 in their last 53 games. Golden State is actually 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last 19 games. Golden State has been top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency all year long.

With Milwaukee slowing things down and Golden State playing good defense, this total is several points too high.

Take the under.