*3 Star Play on Warriors* The Memphis Grizzlies are a good team. Memphis is still coming off a very hard fought series where they won their first playoff series in nine years though. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves played hard and were a tricky matchup for Memphis, but the Golden State Warriors are on a whole different level. Minnesota blew double digit leads in all but one of Memphis' wins in the first round series. I wouldn't expect that type of thing to happen with Golden State.

Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Jordan Poole form a great nucleus for the Warriors. Golden State is willing to win games with three point shooting or with their strong defense.

Memphis has less than 48 hours between games here, while Golden State had a lot of time to rest up and prepare for this one. 

I like the veteran Warriors to come out ready to go in game one.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have a really good head coach in Nick Nurse. Nurse is known for two things- 1. His adjustments throughout a series and even in a game- 2. His defensive mindset and the unique defenses he puts together. Toronto has played much better defense in games 3-5 against the 76ers. 

Joel Embiid is hurting and that overall should hurt his offense more than his defense as well. The 76ers have been slowed down quite a bit of late too with Tyrese Maxey being shut down by the Raptors in recent games. 

Toronto has been much better at home on defense in general, and they will look to dictate the tempo and slow the game down here. 

As we get deeper into the series throughout the NBA in the playoffs, we typically see a slowdown in tempo and high intensity on defense. This is an elimination game and if Toronto wins this could be all the way back to 3-3. I think both teams show up with quality defense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This series is all tied up at 2-2. Game five in Memphis is a huge game. The Timberwolves have played the Grizzlies tough all season. 

Last game the final was 119-118. In that game, the two teams combined to shoot 33/68 (48.5%) from 3 point range. There were also 65 free throws in the game. Even with those numbers, the game edged over this total. 

As the games get more important the totals tend to on average get a little lower. If both teams shoot lights out here then this selection will lose, but if we see shooting numbers like their season averages I like this game to stay under. 

The pace of the game has been slower the last couple games in this series. As the series gets even more important the game is likely to slow down a little more.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Chicago Bulls deserve credit for going on the road and winning game two. Still, I think Milwaukee was ill prepared for that game. The Bucks seemed to be going through the motions for much of that game. Milwaukee isn't likely to do the same in this one.

Middleton is a key loss for the Bucks, but Milwaukee is still one of the deepest teams in the NBA. The Bucks bench played terribly in game two, but on the whole this is an excellent bench. The Bucks are likely to have a much better intensity on defense for this game. 

This is still the same Chicago Bulls team that has been getting beaten up on by the good teams late in the season. In fact, Chicago is now 23-49 ATS in their last 72 as a home underdog. The Bulls have regularly been blown out by the best teams in the league. They will up against a highly motivated Milwaukee Bucks team here. 

Brook Lopez has played well lately, and I think he will serve as a solid second option to Giannis. Jrue Holiday has shot the ball poorly, but he is likely to improve through the rest of the series too.

Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Chicago.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors 131-111 on Saturday night in game one. The pace of that game was 90 possessions. That was the slowest paced game of the playoff contests on Saturday. The 76ers averaged an insane 1.472 points per possession in that game. That is almost unheard of in the NBA- especially in the playoffs. Toronto shot the ball extremely well and averaged 1.22 points per possession. They still lost by 20 points. 

These two teams were in the 1.13-1.14 range in points per possession in the regular season. Harden has made the 76ers offense better, but it isn't as good as they looked on Saturday. The 76ers had one turnover with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The shooting numbers should regress. 

The first game had a total of 215.5. We are getting 5 points higher on the line because of the insane efficiency numbers on offense in game one. At a pace of 90 possessions, the two teams could average 1.20 points per possession (above average) and the total points would finish at 216. 

I have to bet the under and hope the regression comes in game two. They can't be that good on offense the whole series. They are giving us 5 more points here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Raptors* The Philadelphia 76ers are a good team, but I don't think they are worthy of laying this many points against a really well coached Toronto Raptors team. Does Philadelphia have more talent than Toronto. Yes. Harden is clearly past his prime though, and there will be a lot of pressure on Joel Embiid to dominate against a good defensive frontcourt of Toronto.

These two teams played four times this year. Toronto covered all four times. The Raptors won 3 of the 4 meetings. 

I view Nick Nurse as one of the two or three best coaches in the NBA today. Doc Rivers is one of the bottom ten coaches in the NBA. 

Look for this game to be tight all the way. I'll grab the points.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play on Thunder* This isn't a fun bet to make, but I think it is the right one. The Utah Jazz clinched a playoff spot last night. No rest for this one against the lowly Thunder. If you are going to rest anyone or overlook a game, this is the spot.

Oklahoma City has quietly been a covering machine on the road as an underdog. They are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 as a road underdog. 

How about the Jazz as a big favorite? Utah is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games when favored by 10 points or more.

The Thunder have young players who are working hard to try to make an NBA team next year. The Jazz want to win this game, but they don't have a lot of motivation to run up the score here. 

I'll grab the points with Oklahoma City.

Take the Thunder. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were absolutely torched by the LA Clippers last game. The Clippers put up 153 points and made 23 three point shots. Robert Covington made 11 of them by himself. The Bucks sat out all their best players in that game. 

Milwaukee is second in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks are just one game ahead of the fourth place 76ers. These last few games are important to the Bucks and I think with their starters back in the lineup here they will show up defensively.

Dallas was blasted by Washington in an embarrassing 135-103 game last time out. The Mavericks have been a top ten defense on the year though. Dallas ranks second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They will try to slow the game down here.

Two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher from game 60 of the season on- the under is slightly better than 57% since 2005. This angle has been very good in recent seasons. This game fits the angle.

This is also an early game on Sunday and those have been strong to the under in the long haul.

Both teams should be playing hard for playoff seeding here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night. Golden State plans to have Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala all on the floor together for the first time this year. 

Andre Iguodala has the best individual defensive player rating on this team. Green is second best. Thompson is clearly a good defender as well. With these guys all on the floor, Golden State is a very good defensive team. 

Phoenix has Chris Paul back in the lineup. Paul is excellent on offense, but the team plays at a slower pace with him leading the way. The Suns are in transition much more often when Cam Payne is at point guard. 

A game late in the season between two good teams has been a good under bet in the last 15 seasons in the NBA. In fact, between game 60 and 82 of the season a game played between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher- the under is 57.2% dating back to 2006. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the Utah Jazz in an important late regular season game between two teams tied in the Western Conference playoff standings. 

These teams are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference standings. They are also only 2.5 games ahead of Minnesota for the 7th spot in the standings. Remember, #7-#10 are in the "play in" tournament. Everyone will push hard to stay out of those spots. 

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been good to under bettors. When both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher and it is game 60 or later of the regular season the under is 56.9% dating back to 2005. In recent years, this angle has done very well.

Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. Utah ranks 24th. The tempo here should be slow. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are without Stephen Curry and to say that this team looks different now is a major understatement. Not surprisingly, Curry is easily Golden State's highest rated offensive player. Otto Porter Jr. is seeing a lot more minutes now and he is much better defensively than on offense.

Golden State ranks 3rd last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last two games (without Curry). Those two games were against terrible defenses in the Spurs and the Magic. Now, Golden State goes to play a top five defense in the NBA in Miami.

The Heat and the Warriors both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in tempo in the last month. I would expect this game to be played at a relatively slow tempo.

Miami is off an embarrassing loss where their defense gave up 113 points to a 76ers team without Harden and Embiid. The Heat should be better defensively.

There are multiple strong systems on the under late in the season in the NBA when it is a matchup of two teams with a good record. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Heat* The Philadelphia 76ers are playing their third game in four days. They just played last night and lost a tough one to the Toronto Raptors. The 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playing on zero days of rest.

Philadelphia is up against a Miami team playing with a lot of confidence. The Heat also get Jimmy Butler back. Caleb Martin is probable to return here too.

The 76ers have a banged up Embiid which really limits their upside.

Miami is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Heat are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings against the 76ers.

The scheduling spot is a really tough one for the 76ers. 

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers are both teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. These two teams want a halfcourt battle rather than a transition game.

Late in the NBA regular season, games between two teams with a high win percentage have been good under bets. In fact, games after game 60 of the regular season- when the road team has a win percentage of 55% or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 60% or higher.. and the total is 210 or higher- the under is a whopping 141-86 (62.1% unders).

This game fits this system nicely. Two good teams playing to better their position in the NBA playoff standings.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Hornets* The Charlotte Hornets will play against a very shorthanded New Orleans Pelicans team here. C.J. McCollum has been their go to guy in recent weeks, but he is now out due to COVID protocols. Brandon Ingram is out with an injury as well.

At this point, New Orleans is left with Herb Jones, Devonte Graham, and Tony Snell as their top options in the backcourt. 

Charlotte isn't good defensively, but the Hornets can score in bunches. They have a much more talented team than New Orleans. The Hornets have Ball, Bridges, and Rozier as great options.

This Pelicans team has played decent of late, but without McCollum and Ingram I don't think they can keep up.

Take the Hornets. 

*3 Star Play on Kings* The Sacramento Kings catch the New York Knicks in a bad spot here. The Knicks are playing their 4th road game in the past six days. New York is coming off their best performance in quite a while. They blasted the Clippers last night in LA. The Knicks are still a subpar team though and they are unlikely to put two great efforts together back to back. 

The Kings have been much more competitive of late, and they are certainly better on their home court. Domantas Sabonis is a great addition for Sacramento.

Look for Sacramento to win and cover here.

Take the Kings. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are without Chris Paul and Cam Payne right now. Aaron Holiday is questionable for this game. It might be Elfrid Payton and Landry Shamet seeing a lot of time in the backcourt here. 

Utah ranks second slowest in tempo in the last five games and fourth slowest in the league in tempo in their last ten games. The Jazz also rank top five in the league in defensive efficiency in both of those periods. 

Phoenix isn't as elite on offense without Paul on the floor. It puts more pressure on Booker and Ayton.

Early Sunday games have been strong under angles in the long run. Also, from game 60 of the season on a game between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher is 56.7% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Miami* The New York Knicks are in a bad spot as far as team chemistry and motivation right now. Kemba Walker will miss the rest of the season. We don't know how much longer Thibodeau will be the head coach here. The team seems to be heading in the wrong direction quickly.

Miami got the break to rest up and get a little healthier. The Heat have Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry all healthy and ready to go. The Heat are very good defensively with this roster, and they take good care of the basketball as well.

Fundamentally, this is a mismatch between these two teams. I like the Heat to take care of business here.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two of the best defenses in the NBA. In their last ten games, the Celtics are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Boston is allowing 0.954 points per possession. The second best team in the league is allowing 1.058 points per possession in that ten game span. That kind of a difference between first and second is almost unheard of in the NBA.

The 76ers are 5th in the NBA in the last ten games in defensive efficiency. The 76ers are just as good defensively now as they were before the trade deadline. They did lose a couple key pieces on offense though, and Harden isn't on the floor yet thanks to an injury.

These two teams both rate in the middle of the league in offensive stats in the last ten games. This should be a defensive battle.

Boston ranks as slightly slower than average in tempo, while the 76ers rank 28th out of 30 in the league in tempo.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets will likely be without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. It isn't just the big three missing, but also Joe Harris and LaMarcus Aldridge. It will be Patty Mills stepping into big minutes and taking a bunch of shots here. The Nets are without all kinds of top playmakers on offense. They are also up against a Boston defense that is playing well. It would be hard to expect too much from the Nets offensively in this game.

How good is the Boston defense playing? In the past ten games, Boston is allowing 0.985 points per possession. That is first in the NBA. No one else in the NBA is allowing less than 1.065 points per possession. That's some terrific defense by the Celtics.

Boston also ranks 22nd in the league in tempo in their last ten games. Boston has been winning with defense and slowing the game down. The Nets are 19th in tempo during that time span. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off an overtime loss in Philadelphia. That was a game they probably should have won. They had a day off to think about it and now they try to get back on track against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. 

Good teams coming off a loss has been a good angle in the NBA for quite a while now. Ja Morant is the leader of this Memphis team, and I definitely consider Morant and the Grizzlies to be an on the rise franchise.

Memphis is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 coming off a straight up loss. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 coming off an ATS loss. The Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A combined 14-0 angle.

The Knicks are a mediocre team with a much lower upside than the Grizzlies. I think we get a max effort game from Memphis here.

Take Memphis. 

*3 Star Play on Minnesota* Minnesota is a much improved team. The Timberwolves have been feisty against top teams all season.

Phoenix is a really good team, but the market appears to be overvaluing them especially in this situation. The Suns are coming off back to back wins over the Jazz in massive games that were close until the end. 

Phoenix is banged up right now. DeAndre Ayton is out of the lineup. Jae Crowder is out of the lineup. Javale McGee is out of the lineup. Cam Payne is questionable for this game as well.

Phoenix hasn't been covering as home favorites, and this is a big spread against a quality Minnesota team. I'll take the points here.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have played at the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the last 10 games. Boston has seen 13 of its last 17 games stay under this total in regulation. They have played some low scoring finals even in overtime. Boston is playing strong defense. They rank 7th in defensive efficiency in the last ten games.

Boston lists Marcus Smart as probable for this game. Smart is a great defender and often when coming back from a long break players can struggle offensively. 

Washington is the higher scoring team of these two, but the Wizards have had several contests with very high scoring and fast paced teams of late. That has skewed this total higher. Here, they are up against a different opponent who prefers the halfcourt and lower scoring game.

Sunday early game unders have been great especially in conference games in the last decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have been a very consistently slow paced team with low scoring games of late. Boston ranks second to last in the NBA in pace of play in their last 11 games. In those 11 games, Boston only has had three games go over this total in regulation (one stayed under even with an OT). 

The Celtics rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 11 games. Boston ranks 19th in offensive efficiency in that period. 

New Orleans is 15th in the league in tempo in that period. They are middle of the pack in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.

These MLK Day early games have stayed under the total at a high rate in the past decade. The earliest start time games in general have been good under wagers.

I think the tempo is slow here and barring very high offensive efficiency, I think this one stays under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Dallas* The Dallas Mavericks rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. Dallas is unbeaten since Luka Doncic came back in the lineup on January 2nd. That includes blowout wins over both Golden State and Chicago. This Mavericks team has a high upside and right now they are playing extremely well.

The New York Knicks have been much more inconsistent of late. The Knicks were blown away by the Celtics, Thunder, and Raptors in three of their last five games. New York's offense has been struggling, and against this Mavericks defense I'm not sure they can be very efficient here either.

I'll take the small road favorite playing at this level.

Take Dallas. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Rockets defense has been the worst in the NBA in the last ten games, and it isn't very close. Houston is giving up a whopping 1.238 points per possession. No one else is giving up more than 1.208. 

Houston is playing fast as well. The Rockets are 10th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. In their last five games, Houston ranks third in the league in tempo. Their offense has been middle of the pack, which is much improved from earlier this season.

Washington ranks 25th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games played. The Wizards have allowed 117 points or more in seven of their last nine games. 

Houston has allowed 120 points or more in seven of their last eight games. The other game they allowed 118 points. 

Look for a high scoring fast paced game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Raptors* The Clippers are down both superstars. Kawhi Leonard has been out long term, but Paul George had been the steadying force for Los Angeles. George was averaging 25 points per game this year, but he is out with an injury now. Reggie Jackson is questionable here and is said to be having conditioning problems so he is less than 100 percent no matter what.

The Clippers had gotten solid contributions from Brandon Boston Jr. and Ivica Zubac, but of them are out due to COVID 19 protocols now.

Toronto has been severely shorthanded, but the Raptors have gotten their team back now. Pascal Siakim, Scottie Barnes, Fred Van Vleet, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. are all ready to go. 

The Raptors aren't a great team, but they are better than their record. This version of the Clippers is a very weak team. This is a great opportunity for the Raptors to get back on track.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Los Angeles Lakers aren't playing good basketball right now. The Lakers without Anthony Davis are hurting quite a bit. Additionally, they are very short on depth with guys like Reaves, Bazemore, and Nunn out. 

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS against teams with a winning record this year. The Grizzlies are a bit shorthanded as well, but they are a deeper team. Memphis also has their star Ja Morant back. Morant is playing at a really high level right now. 

LeBron has been playing excellently and yet their team isn't having success. LeBron is logging massive minutes too. The Lakers had to push hard to get a win in Houston last night against a bad Rockets team. I don't think they'll be on their "A game" tonight.

Take Memphis. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks are without 5 of their top 7 scorers in this game including star Trae Young. Atlanta has played two games without Young and in those two games they have played at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA during that span. Atlanta lacks go to guys on the offensive end now. They have played two games where they failed to score 100 points. Those contests totaled 202 and 194 points.

The New York Knicks rank as the second slowest paced team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Knicks aren't going to be running and gunning in this one. 

Christmas Day unders have been a great betting angle in the NBA in the past decade. Early games on Christmas Day staying under has been an even stronger angle. This is an extremely early tipoff.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank second last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Phoenix Suns rank second best in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Oklahoma City isn't likely to score very many points against Phoenix in this one.

The Thunder have slowed their pace down in recent weeks. Oklahoma City is likely to try to keep this pace slower than the league average.

The Suns are only giving up 0.992 points per possession which is excellent defensively in their last five games. 

The day before Christmas Eve has been a good under day in the NBA in the long term.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks are the much superior team even without Giannis. The Bucks are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. New Orleans is coming off a ridiculous buzzer beating win over Oklahoma City on the road. Milwaukee took care of business against Indiana.

The Pelicans are just 4-9 at home so far this year. New Orleans relies heavily on offensive rebounding, but the Bucks are a good defensive rebounding team even without Giannis. 

Milwaukee is the better coached team who I trust to show up on a game by game basis. The Pelicans have a couple nice wins, but they haven't consistently performed well.

Take Milwaukee here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the LA Lakers tonight. Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game. 

Dallas ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA in the last eight games. It isn't particularly close either. In fact, in their last two games without Doncic, the Mavericks played to a pace of just under 90 possessions per game. That's extremely slow.

The Lakers are middle of the pack in tempo. Los Angeles does rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Mavericks rank 7th. These two teams are both competing well on the defensive end.

Both Malik Monk and Talen Horton Tucker are likely out here for the Lakers and those guys are good offensive options.

The referee crew is a positive as well. Brian Forte is 54.9% unders in his games as a ref (more than 800 games) and James Williams is at 52% unders in his career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks host the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday at noon eastern. This is an early Sunday tipoff, and these early tips on Sunday have been good under plays in the past decade. Sunday is the best day for unders in the NBA long term by a wide margin, and the early games have been even better for the under. 

The New York Knicks tempo is second slowest in the NBA in the last ten games. The Bucks rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Milwaukee is playing fairly quick, but they are playing slower than they did a year ago.

These two teams have met twice this year. The posted totals were 216.5 and 216. Both of those games went under the total. One of the unders was a game where the Bucks nailed a whopping 26 three pointers. The pace has been slow in the first two matchups.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a scorching hot shooting performance. Atlanta made 25/49 3 point field goal attempts in their win. That was the most made three-pointers on record for the Atlanta Hawks franchise. 

The Brooklyn Nets have been much better on defense this year. The primary improvement from them has been their 3 point defense. In fact, the Nets are number one in the NBA in 3 point defense. It isn't even close. The Nets are holding opponents to just 30.5% from 3 point range. No other team in the NBA is allowing less than 32.1% from beyond the arc.

These two teams are both about average in pace in the league. This is a really high total in this year's scoring environment in the NBA.

The Nets have had six straight games finish at 220 points or lower. Recency bias has this number very high because the Hawks have been on fire from three.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cavs* The Cleveland Cavs catch the Chicago Bulls at the right time here. The Bulls are shorthanded due to injuries and illnesses. Chicago is a very good team this year, but they are going to be at much less than full strength here.

Demar DeRozan has scored at least 28 points in each of the last four games for the Bulls. He has been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this year. He will miss this game along with Coby White due to COVID. Alex Caruso is also out. These three guys rank as the top three players in defensive efficiency ratings for the Bulls on the season too (among those averaging 15 minutes per game or more). 

The Cavs have a great frontcourt led by Mobley. Markannen should be anxious to play against his old team as well. Cleveland has been a covering machine this season. They are coming off a couple tough losses, and they should be excited to try to bounce back here against a Bulls team that comes into this one banged up badly.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on Heat* The Memphis Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant here. They've done well without him so far, but he is clearly a huge loss for this team. Kyle Anderson is out as well and Brandon Clarke is doubtful here also. 

Jimmy Butler is expected to return for the Heat tonight. With Morant out and Butler likely back in, the Heat have the much more talented team. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro should play a big role from the outside in this game.

Miami is the best team Memphis has had to play without Morant. The Grizzlies have to be feeling pretty good about themselves with their win streak. Miami has played subpar of late, and I think they circle the wagons here.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play on the Hawks* The Atlanta Hawks are the team with the much higher upside of these two teams. Atlanta has underachieved so far this season. The Hawks have won 7 of their last 8 games including winning their last two road games. 

Indiana is without Justin Holiday and Myles Turner is questionable with an illness. Holiday has been a nice contributor for the Pacers, and Turner is arguably the team's most important player. I like this bet even if Turner does play, but if he doesn't play this wager holds even more value.

Trae Young is a really streaky scorer, and he has been on fire. I don't see anyone on the Pacers roster that matches up well defensively against him.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have been excellent defensively. In fact, in their last 8 games, the Warriors and Clippers rank #1 and #2 in defensive efficiency. These are two well coached defensive teams.

The Warriors and Clippers rank 15th and 16th in tempo in the last 8 games as well, so their pace isn't blazing fast by any means. 

This is an early tipoff on the West Coast and these weekend early tip offs on the West Coast have been very good unders in the past decade. 

Both of these teams are subpar when it comes to creating second chances. I think their initial shots will be covered better than normal in this one as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers host the Detroit Pistons in a strange early Friday afternoon tilt on the West Coast. 

The teams were off for Thanksgiving, but they'll be back at it early on Friday. Early games have been good under bets in the NBA in the past, and early games on the West Coast have been even better. 

Detroit is one of the worst offenses in the NBA. They rank second worst in offensive efficiency. The Clippers rank second best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Detroit should have trouble scoring in this one.

The Clippers have shown they are willing to let off the gas when playing with a lead late, and they are clearly favorites in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Memphis Grizzlies were absolutely blown out by the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game. Memphis' coach let the team know he wasn't impressed with their effort in that contest. Memphis does have a lot of guys on their team that are battlers and I would expect them to fight back in this spot. The Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 following a double digit loss.

Memphis is playing against the Jazz who eliminated them from the playoffs last year. If they can't get up for a game like this- who could get they get up for playing?

In general in the NBA bounce back systems do very well ATS especially following massive blowouts. 

We're getting a few too many points because of the recency of both teams.

Take Memphis. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Pistons offense is one of the weakest in the NBA. The Indiana Pacers have slowed down their tempo in recent games. Indiana ranks 25th out of 30 teams in the NBA in pace of play in their last ten games. The Pacers have been an under machine of late.

Detroit has shown that they typically play a game to the preferred tempo of their opponent. That is common for a weak and young team like the Pistons. 

Detroit has scored 91 points or less in four of their last eight games overall.

The under is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 road games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bradley Beal will miss this game following the death of his grandmother. Beal is clearly the best offensive player on this Washington team and the offense runs through him. Last year, Beal had one of the highest offensive player ratings, but he also had one of the worst defensive player ratings. 

The Wizards defense has been one of the best in the NBA of late. In fact, in their last three games, the Wizards have the best defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. 

Orlando is averaging just 0.96 points per possession on their home floor this year. The Magic just don't have enough good scoring options especially when they are taking on a talented defense. Wes Unseld Jr. has the Wizards working really hard on the defensive end. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the NBA in tempo. This is a divisional matchup and those are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls have improved a bunch on the defensive end. It's the number one reason this team has been so successful this season. The team made a lot of transactions in the offseason, and that has led to defense being prioritized much more by the current starters for Chicago.

The Dallas Mavericks have been very slow with their tempo this year. Dallas ranks 24th in pace of play this season. Chicago is a slightly below average 17th in tempo. 

Dallas ranks 15th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bulls rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

We have seen the way officials are calling the game in the NBA this year and how it has helped the under. The new basketball likely plays a role as well.

In this year's NBA, this is a pretty high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Tobias Harris in this one. Harris was averaging 19.8 points per game. They'll also be without long range shooter Danny Green. Joel Embiid will be back for this contest.

The 76ers rank dead last in the NBA in tempo this year, and it isn't even close. They have really slowed their pace down a lot this season. The Bulls rank 20th in tempo, so they are slower than an average team as well.

The Bulls are 6th in defensive efficiency in the NBA. The 76ers are a solid 14th. Both of these defenses tend to put up a pretty good fight. 

Brian Forte and Scott Twardowski are two of the best "under" officials in the NBA. Both of them have seen more than 54% of their games all time stay under the total. Both are officiating this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Hawks* The Atlanta Hawks were beaten badly by the Washington Wizards just a few days ago. Washington coasted to an 11 point win in a game where Atlanta was favored by four points in Washington.

Here's a chance less than a week later for Atlanta to get revenge. These quick revenge games have done well in the NBA, especially early in the season.

The Hawks still have a very high upside. They have been inconsistent so far this year, but I'm still high on this team overall. They finished last year well and on paper this year's team is better than a year ago.

Look for a strong effort in a good situational spot for the Hawks here.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Blazers* The LA Clippers throttled the Blazers on Monday night. The Clippers won 116-86. Portland turned the ball over 30 times. That is just unreal for an NBA team. Portland's players and the coaching staff talked in depth about how much that loss bothered them. What's the good news? They get a chance for revenge in the same week. This time it will be in Portland too, where the Blazers have a big home court advantage.

The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard. They are still a talented team, but their upside is much lower. Portland is coming off an impressive beatdown of the Memphis Grizzlies. Portland's defense looks much better so far this year under Chauncey Billups. 

A chance for quick revenge against a shorthanded Clippers team is an opportunity Portland badly wants to take advantage of.

Lay the points here.

Take Portland. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a very high total, but it is very high for a good reason. Portland is easily playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. Damian Lillard has shot the ball terribly so far this season. How bad? Lillard is shooting 8% from 3 point range. He is shooting just 36% overall. The Blazers have still had 2 of their 3 games go over this posted total. 

Memphis has played 3 games and their lowest scoring game finished at 234 points. The other two were 239 and 253 points. The Grizzlies have a great offense and arguably their best defender, Dillon Brooks, is out with an injury. 

The Blazers are coming off a very low scoring output on a terrible shooting night. The Clippers are far better defensively than the Grizzlies though. Betting the over in the next game after a team has gone way under has been a profitable strategy in the NBA as well.

The pace will be there. I think more shots will fall as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Play on Miami* The Miami Heat host the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. I like the additions Miami made in the offseason. Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker are excellent additions to the team. 

The Bucks will be playing without Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday in this one. Holiday is an elite defender and the Bucks will miss him quite a bit.

Milwaukee is coming off a big win over the Nets. Miami is in their season opener here. The Heat are healthier and I like the spot for them.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star NBA Opening Night Cash* The Chicago Bulls have gotten much better in the offseason. The Bulls added DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic. Both of those guys are great scoring options to help out Zach LaVine. Lonzo Ball is a solid point guard for this group as well.

Detroit's Cade Cunningham will be a lot of fun to watch, but he isn't expected to play in this game. The Pistons just don't have the top end talent to match the Bulls. Detroit will have one of the worst records in basketball this year. Their best player is likely to be Cade Cunningham, and he'll be on the sidelines here.

Chicago has too much firepower and I like them to cover the spread here.

Take the Bulls. 

*3 Star Play Under* If you had just been betting closeout game unders in the NBA playoffs over the past decade, you would have made a bunch of money. 

Game 5 was a very high scoring tight game between the Suns and Bucks. Both teams shot the ball exceptionally well. 

The pace started fast in the first couple games of this series and it has consistently gotten slower and slower as the series has went on. How did they score so many points in game five? Was it a faster pace? Nope. It was by far the slowest paced game in this NBA Finals so far. Milwaukee averaged a ridiculous 1.352 points per possession. Phoenix averaged a very high 1.293 points per possession. 

Phoenix needs this game to stay alive. Their coach called them out for their defensive performance in game five. They should give a lot of effort on that end here. Milwaukee has the length to bother Phoenix. The Bucks have several very good individual defenders.

As the games get more crucial the pace tends to slow down. That has happened thus far in this series. If we get a pace like the last couple games, it takes a shooting performance far above season averages to get to this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Milwaukee Bucks* The Phoenix Suns won the first two games at home in this series. Now, it is the Bucks turn to answer. Milwaukee saw some terrible shooting from Middleton and Holiday last game really slow them down. The Bucks are very capable of winning with decent outside shooting, and they have shown to shoot better at home through the season.

Phoenix is a good team and they deserve credit for their playoff performances. They have a good shot at winning the series. Still, I don't think it will be as easy as it has looked so far in this series. Milwaukee controls the paint in the series and the Suns aren't going to shoot 20/40 from 3 point range every game like they did last game.

Milwaukee has been a great team to back following a loss in the past couple seasons. The Bucks are up against it here. They have to win this game. It means a whole lot more to them than the Suns. 

Phoenix has a tremendous home court advantage, but now they take the show on the road. Giannis looks healthy and he should have another big game. I think the Bucks make this a tighter series.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns and LA Clippers are locked into a tight battle in the Western Conference Finals. The Suns are up 2-1, but they could easily be down 2-1. Their last second win in game two was huge. The Clippers though have shown they are more than comfortable coming from down 2-0 in a series. 

The Clippers really turned up the defense in game three in their win over Phoenix. They also slowed the pace of the game a bit. Phoenix's Devin Booker struggled on offense with his mask for a facial injury. Chris Paul looked very rusty after missing a lot of time in the covid protocol. 

Phoenix's Cameron Payne is banged up right now and he has been key to the Suns offense especially in pushing the pace in the past. 

The Clippers offense is too reliant on Paul George without Leonard healthy. The Suns do have some quality defensive players who can make George have to work hard at all times.

The average pace for the first three games has been 93.67 possessions. At that pace, both teams could average 1.15 points per possession and the game would still a few points under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have lost back to back games where they were completely in control against the Atlanta Hawks. The 76ers now have their backs against the wall. Can they take care of business on the road to force a game 7?

Philadelphia had the second best defense when it comes to defensive efficiency in the regular season. The 76ers allowed just 1.070 points per possession. Atlanta had way too much offensive success late in game 5. Doc Rivers and some of the players talked about that in the postgame quotes. I think we see Philadelphia show a better effort on the defensive end here.

Atlanta's defense has been improved since Nate McMillan took over in the middle of the season, and that is the main reason they are at this point in the playoffs.

The long term trends for NBA closeout games going under the total are hard to ignore. The games tend to slow down and the defenses tend to improve when so much is on the line. We saw a game like that between the Bucks and the Nets on Thursday night. Also, the 76ers and Hawks average tempo has been just 98.5 possessions in the last two games which is clearly slower than it was in the first couple games of the series. 

At this high total, I'll side with the under in this crucial game six contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Suns* The Phoenix Suns are a really bad matchup for the Denver Nuggets in their current state. 

Murray is badly missed by the Nuggets because of the Suns strength in the backcourt. Chris Paul has been amazing in this series. Paul is looking far healthier, and he is scoring and facilitating at a great level right now. 

How much more can Jokic do? He put up a triple double in Game 3 and his team was still beaten by 14 points. The Nuggets just don't have enough weapons right now. Porter Jr. has a minor back injury that is clearly hurting him on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets backcourt simply isn't good enough now. 

No game in this series has been closer than 14 points. Denver had its circle the wagons game last time out, and they could do no better than losing by 14. No team has come back from 3-0 to win a series. The Nuggets know they are done here. Could they show pride and pick up a win? It is certainly possible, but it would have to happen thanks to the Suns dropping their level of play drastically. 

The best the Suns have to offer right now is far better than the best the Nuggets have to offer.

Take Phoenix. 

*3 Star Play on Jazz* Extra rest has typically been a good thing in the NBA playoffs. While there is always a debate between rest or rust in these spots, the ATS angles show that indeed the teams who have been resting recently are at an advantage.

Home favorites of 12.5 points or less who have had 4 days or more between their playoff games are 100-62 (61.7% ATS) since 2006. Utah fits that angle for this game.

The LA Clippers had to expend a bunch of energy in their 7 game series against the Mavericks. The Clippers were down 2-0 and 3-2 and scratched and claw to pick up the series win. They now play just two days later in Utah against the top seed in the Western Conference.

The Clippers upside is very high and they have a very real chance in the series, but this is a bad spot for them. The Jazz have a big home court advantage. Utah announced that this game will be played with 100% capacity so the fans will be back and as loud as ever. The game being at altitude is another big perk for the home team.

Lay the points here.

Take Utah. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and the LA Clippers square off in Game 7 at Staples Center on Sunday afternoon. This is an early start time on the west coast. These early start games have been good to under bettors in the past decade. Additionally, Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the past decade. This game has both.

Even more importantly though, it is a game 7 in the playoffs. This game is the most important game of the year for both teams. Win or go home. In the last three games of the series the final total was 187, 205, and 201 points. The defenses have definitely improved as the series has gone along. Both teams have been working in some zone defenses and slowing down the opposition much better than they did earlier in the series.

Luka Doncic is getting a ton of attention from the Clippers defense right now. Kristaps Porzingis isn't making them pay for that either. His offense has been terrible in this series.

The Clippers have consistently played poorly on offense in huge games the past few season. 

Of course these two teams could bury shots and this one go over the total, but I think this is a plus expected value wager.

Game 7's are a different animal. The pace should stay slow here and the defenses will be making most of the shots contested.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers are down 3-2 and they come home to Staples Center to try to level this series at 3. 

Anthony Davis missed last game with a groin injury and he is listed as questionable for this one. Davis actually ranked as the team's highest rated offensive player in the regular season (just ahead of LeBron James). His versatility creates tons of open looks for everyone on this Lakers offense. Even if Davis plays, he won't be even close to 100 percent here. I think that hurts the Lakers offense quite a bit.

The Lakers rated as the best defense in the NBA in the regular season. They have won quite a few games down the stretch when they were shorthanded with their defensive pressure. 

The Suns and Lakers have shown they are happy to play at a slower pace in this series. One game went over the total in the first five, and that one didn't have any business going over (late fouls pushed it just over the number).

Elimination games late in the series have been strong to the under in the long run in the NBA. While this is a low number, it is low for a reason.

Expect the pace to be slow and the defensive intensity to be impressive here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* With the way these two teams have been shooting the ball this isn't an easy play to make, but I have to do it. The average pace of the first 3 games in this series is 90.83 possessions. 

The two teams have averaged 1.275 points per possession (Dallas) and 1.257 points per possession (LA Clippers) in the series. These are the two highest points per possession of any team in the NBA playoffs thus far. Are these the two best offenses in the NBA? No. Are these two of the worst defenses in the NBA? No. 

In the regular season these two played three games that all finished at 208 points or lower. 

With a pace of 90.83 possessions, the two teams would have to average more than 1.22 points per possession to get over this total. Their season long numbers don't suggest that can keep happening. The Clippers are a top five defense in the NBA for the year, and the Mavericks are an NBA average defense.

The NBA playoffs tend to bring about better defense and slower paced games as the games get more meaningful. These two teams have been red hot from the floor in the first three games. I think regression is likely.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The average pace in this series has been 95.5 possessions. If we assume there will be 96 possessions and both teams average 1.18 points per possession (higher than any team in the NBA averaged in the regular season) the total would still be lower than this posted total.

Both teams have shot lights out in this series. These aren't great defensive teams by any means, so I would expect fairly good shooting numbers. However, as the games get more important, the tempo usually slows even more and the defense gets a little better. 

In game three, there were more than 50 points scored in the last six minutes of the game. There were 29 points scored in the final 2:29 of the contest. That made a game that was a stone cold under turn into a terrible bad beat for under bettors. That has given us more value on the under here though. 

This game starts early in the afternoon local time. Early games have been better for under bettors than late games in the long term since the players are not accustomed to starting this early very often.

Of course both teams could shoot well and this lose, but at this high of a number I see a lot of value in this. Two of the three regular season games between these two finished at 217 points or lower.

This game means a lot to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Miami Heat* The Milwaukee Bucks will likely win this series, but I don't expect Miami to go down without a fight. Erik Spoelstra is an underrated head coach. In fact, Spoelstra is an impressive 80-60-1 ATS in the NBA playoffs. What about when his team has been beaten down in the previous game? Spoelstra's teams are 18-5 ATS after a loss by more than 10 points in their previous game.

NBA teams in general have been good bets after getting blown out in the playoffs. Teams who lost by 25 points or more in the previous game are at 60% ATS (57-38) in the last 95 contests. 

Miami has to have this game, and they know it. While Milwaukee has the deeper team, I think Miami has the coaching advantage. Milwaukee is 31-34 ATS with Mike Budenholzer as head coach. Milwaukee has been a relatively weak road team this year. 

Jimmy Butler has played poorly in the first two games, but I expect better from him here. Miami should put everything into this game. They have proven they are a tough matchup for the Bucks in the past couple years.

I'll take the desperate team down 0-2 and at home.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* The slowest paced game of the NBA playoffs so far was easily the Mavericks/Clippers Game 1 contest. That game was played to a snail's pace of 87.5 possessions. Both teams shot the ball far above their season averages and the game still finished at only 216 points. 

Dallas put up 1.284 points per possession. The Clippers averaged 1.184 points per possession. The average for these teams on offense during the regular season was about 1.15 points per possession. The two defenses gave up about 1.11 points per possession on average. 

The Clippers defense should be better in game two. The Mavericks got far too many open looks from 3 point range in game one. 

There were also 50 free throws in game one which is above normal for these teams. 

The Clippers are a top five defensive rebounding team in the NBA on the year. Dallas got back 34.9% of their misses on offense in game one. That should improve here.

While both of these teams are capable of shooting very well, this total is too high based upon the pace the regular season games between these two played out to. It is clearly too high if the pace from the first game in the playoffs happens again.

With playoff intensity and tighter defense, I think there is value here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* We saw the first day of NBA playoff games definitely ran lower scoring than regular season games on average. The pace was slower and the defensive intensity did pick up quite a bit. 

The New York Knicks were the slowest paced team in the NBA this year. The Knicks have been able to clamp down on defense in some of their biggest games this year. Coach Thibodeau has really changed this team for the better on the defensive end. 

Atlanta is a different team under Nate McMillan as well. The Hawks are now a middle of the road defense and middle of the road or slightly slower paced team. Earlier in the year this was a team looking to run all the time and playing very little defense.

The regular season games between these two were high, but this game means far more to both teams. Madison Square Garden is a good under venue on the whole because of the tough shooting backdrops. This being game one of a huge playoff series for the Knicks when they have been so bad for a long time should create some extra jitters and a great atmosphere.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In general we see the scoring go down in the NBA playoffs. Of course there will be some very high scoring games, but overall the average shooting numbers and the average tempo dips in the playoffs. The regular season games don't have the same intensity of these games.

Dallas and the LA Clippers have a rematch of their playoff series from last season here. There were some very high scoring games in that series. It is certainly possibly that could happen again, but these are different teams than a year ago.

With Rajon Rondo on the Clippers team and Lou Williams gone, the Clippers are playing a much slower pace. Williams was the Clippers most efficient offensive player against Dallas last year as well. The Clippers ranked 8th in the NBA in tempo last year. They ranked 28th in tempo this year.

Dallas ranked 18th in tempo last year. They ranked 26th this year. The Mavericks have been slightly less efficient on offense this year as well.

The three regular season games between these two finished at 197 points, 208 points, and 194 points. 

The average pace was 93.8 possessions (very slow) in those regular season games. The two teams averaging a very good 1.16 points per possession (above average) with a pace of 94 possessions would still put this total at only 218. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte Hornets offense is a completely different looking unit with LaMelo Ball on the floor. Charlotte had some major offensive struggles without Ball and Malik Monk in recent months. Those guys are back on the floor and two key things have occurred to help the games be higher scoring of late. First, Charlotte is clearly playing faster again. This team had a bottom five tempo without them on the floor, but with these guys Charlotte is playing in the top 12 teams in terms of tempo. Second, their offensive efficiency has gone up.

Denver is playing at a league average pace, and the Nuggets are an above average offense even without Jamaal Murray on the court. The Nuggets should be able to create many scoring chances near the basket here. 

Charlotte's games are being totaled too low right now in my opinion. This team has scored 107 points or more in 7 of their last 10 games. They have had 4 of their last 5 games finish at 219 points or higher. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Lakers are expected to be without LeBron James here. They are without Dennis Schroder as well. We all know what James means to this team. Offensively, Schroder is a force as well. His defense is subpar and his backups are better defensively than him. Kyle Kuzma is doubtful for this game as well. 

Anthony Davis is a great first option scoring wise, but he isn't 100 percent healthy, and he really doesn't have anyone helping with the load here. The Lakers are short on scoring options right now.

Phoenix has been shooting extremely well of late, but the Lakers rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the year. The Lakers should give a good effort on defense here since every game means a ton to them when it comes to the playoff standings.

Late season regular season games between two playoff bound teams have been great to the under in the long run. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Clippers host the New York Knicks in a very early game in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon. These early Sunday afternoon games have been great for under bettors through the years. That trend is even stronger when the game is being played on the West Coast. 

The Clippers have played at the slowest pace in the NBA in the last five games. The Knicks have the slowest pace for the year as a whole. The first game they played against each other was played to just 93 possessions, but both teams shot the lights out. 

A game played at 93 possessions could see 1.16 and 1.15 points per possession and still stay under this total. That is above average shooting in the NBA overall. 

Rondo has slowed the pace down some for the Clippers, and he has really helped their defense. 

These two teams are both above average on the defensive boards. 

Take the under in this Sunday afternoon contest. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers are 9-1 to the under in their last 10. The Clippers have played at easily the slowest pace in the NBA in their last three games. Their last 3 games have averaged 91.5 possessions. No one else in the NBA is slower than 95 possessions in that time. 

The Lakers are without LeBron James and Dennis Schroder here. LeBron is clearly their best offensive player. Schroder ranks as their third most efficient player on offense (but he has been weak defensively) behind only James and Anthony Davis.

The Lakers have consistently struggled to get open looks against the Clippers in the last couple years. I wouldn't expect that to improve without James and Schroder here.

The Lakers have been playing excellent defense. They rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season. 

This game is important to both teams who are fighting for position in the playoff standings in the Western Conference.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns have the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last five games. The Suns have been extremely efficient on offense, but their shooting numbers should regress to season averages over time. They have averaged 1.25 points per possession in their last five games. On the season, they are slightly below 1.17 points per possession.

Atlanta's defense has been much better since their coaching change. The Hawks have played much slower as well. Atlanta ranks 23rd in the NBA in tempo in their last five games. This should be a slow paced contest.

Phoenix and Atlanta both rank in the top five in the NBA in 3 point defense. In one game you never know what can happen, but we should expect the 3 pointers in this game to be at least well contested. 

Without very good shooting numbers, this one projects as a game that stays below this total because of the pace of play.

Both of these teams have plenty to play for, so I expect the defenses to be giving a lot of effort.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The number one and number two teams in the Western Conference playoff standings meet up tonight in Phoenix. 

Utah will be without both Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell is a huge loss on the offensive end. Though Utah made 64% of their shots and put up a massive number on Sacramento (no defense) in their last game, the Jazz still are at only 1.139 points per possession in their last 8 games. Before last game, their offensive numbers were way down without Mitchell. On the other side, Utah has actually been better on defense without Mitchell. 

Phoenix and Utah have met twice in the regular season. Neither of the two games have been even close to this total at the end of regulation (last game went into OT). 

This fits a great late season angle- two teams above 60% win percentage on the season playing against each other. These have been 57.5% to the under over a very large sample size.

This game means a lot to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks have been red hot from the floor of late. New York is only a mediocre offensive team though, and I think they will regress to the mean. The Knicks are averaging 1.21 points per possession in their last five games. On the year, they are averaging 1.099 points per possession. 

Toronto will be without Chris Boucher here, and he has been red hot of late. Boucher is tied with Pascal Siakim as their highest rated offensive player on the season. Their offense takes a big hit without him. Freddie Gillespie will get a lot of the minutes at power forward. Gillespie is one of the lowest rated offensive players on this roster, but he rates better defensively than Boucher on the season.

The Knicks rate 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season. They also rank as the slowest paced team in the league.

This is a pretty high total for a Knicks game. An early start on a weekend helps the under in the long run as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Blazers* The Portland Blazers are coming off a 1 point loss at home to the Clippers. Portland played without Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic in that game. Both of those key players are expected back for the Blazers tonight.

This is a massive game for Portland. They badly need to stay in the top six in the Western Conference. Dallas, Memphis, and Golden State are capable of making a run to pass them. Much has also been made of the Blazers struggles against top teams in recent weeks, and here is a chance for them to knock off a very highly rated team.

Denver limps into this game. The Nuggets are coming off a 2 OT win over Memphis where it took a couple miracle comebacks to win that game. Jamal Murray is out the rest of the year with a knee injury. Monte Morris is also now injured which really leaves Denver shorthanded in the backcourt.

Portland played Denver very close to the finish in Denver in February and that was without C.J. McCollum. The Blazers are healthier now and Denver is shorthanded.

A good bounce back spot for Portland.

*4 Star NBA Game of the Week* The first time these two teams played this year the Lakers won 96-95. Of course the Lakers had LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the floor for that game. What has changed for the Lakers without those guys? The biggest change has been their offensive efficiency has gotten much worse. 

The Lakers on the season are averaging 1.098 points per possession. They are averaging just 1.031 points per possession in the 14 games since LeBron went down with an injury. Their defensive efficiency has actually been slightly better in that time.

Boston struggled badly on defense for much of the year, but Brad Stevens finally has this team working much harder on defense of late. The Celtics rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Lakers rank first in defensive efficiency in that span.

The first game these two played was just 93.5 possessions. That is an extremely slow pace. The Celtics have slowed their tempo in recent games and the Lakers have played slower since adding Drummond. 

The Lakers have had 11 of their last 14 games go under this total. Four of the Celtics last six games have finished at 202 points or fewer.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lakers take on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Monday night. The Lakers are coming off one of their best wins of the year. They defeated the Nets as a big underdog. The fact that they did it without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Kyle Kuzma is really impressive. The Knicks are coming off an OT win over Memphis and a tight win at home against Toronto. Both teams are in pretty good form.

These two teams have been doing it with defense of late. The Lakers rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Knicks rank second. 

The Lakers rank 27th in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the last ten games. The Knicks rank 25th. 

This is a very low total in today's NBA, but it is low for a good reason. Only two of the Knicks last 9 games have gone over this low total. The Lakers have only had one game finish higher than 214 points in their last 9 contests despite playing some very good offenses in that span (Nets, Clippers, Bucks, 76ers). 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* When two good teams play each other late in the NBA season, I always want to take an initial look at the under. This one is one I have to play because of the spot.

Phoenix is coming off a huge win over the Jazz last night. The Suns really slowed the pace of that game down. They have shown to prefer a slow pace this year overall. 

The Clippers rank 26th in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games. They also rank fifth in defensive efficiency. This team has really turned things up on the defensive end of late. 

Phoenix ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that period. 

Both of these teams are good offensively, but with the pace I expect this to be played at they would need to shoot a very high percentage to get past the total.

In a key game between two high quality teams, I'll take the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers are averaging only 1.01 points per possession without LeBron James in the lineup this year. That is drastically lower than their 1.14 points per possession with him in the lineup. The Lakers are still excellent on defense without LeBron. In fact, the Lakers rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing only 1.03 points per possession in their last seven games. 

The Clippers play at the third slowest pace in the NBA in their last seven games. The Clippers are also improving on the defensive end of late. They rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in that period. 

The Lakers just shot lights out from 3 point range in their win over the Kings in their last game. They are unlikely to be able to keep that up against a much more respectable defense in the Clippers. 

The Lakers have seen 7 of their last 8 games finish with 210 points or lower. The Clippers have seen 3 of their last 5 games finish with 199 points or lower. 

This is an early start on the West Coast and it is a rivalry game between division opponents.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacramento Kings beat the LA Lakers 123-120 a month ago. There were some extremely good shooting numbers on that night. Sacramento shot 60% from the floor. The Lakers shot 53% from the floor. The pace in the game was just 95.5 possessions. The two teams averaged a whopping 1.281 and 1.263 points per possession in that game. 

The Lakers offense has been a hot mess of late. I do realize the Kings have a weak defense and the Lakers could look a bit better here offensively. Still, this is a really high total for a Lakers game right now. The Lakers ranks second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency since LeBron went down to an injury. They also rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Lakers have seen only one of their last seven games go above 210 points.

Sacramento has played a bit slower of late, and their defense has been just a touch better. The Kings rank 15th in the NBA in tempo in their last seven games.

This is a divisional game and divisional games have gone under the total 53% of the time from game 42 on in the regular season.

I think the Lakers keep this game a bit lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on the New York Knicks* The New York Knicks are coming off a disappointing 98-88 to the Miami Heat. The Knicks have been great at bouncing back from losses this year. New York is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following a straight up loss. This time around they just happen to be playing an absolutely terrible Minnesota Timberwolves team. 

Minnesota played Brooklyn close in their last game, but that type of performance has been the exception and not the rule. The Timberwolves are at home against a team with a losing record on the road here, but is that even a good thing for them? Minnesota is 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. They are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a home underdog. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following an ATS win.

There isn't anything for the Timberwolves to be playing for at this point other than pride. The Knicks are in a playoff race. Also, Tom Thibodeau gets to coach against his old team here. The Knicks have plenty of reasons to be highly motivated.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play Under* What do the Charlotte Hornets look like without LaMelo Ball compared to with him? The Hornets rank 12th in the NBA in tempo for the season overall. In their last four games they rank 29th (second to last) in the NBA in tempo. They have clearly slowed things down, which makes a lot of sense because Ball is great in transition and they definitely miss him in the open floor.

Phoenix ranks 24th in the NBA in tempo on the season. The Suns are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. This is a team that is capable of scoring plenty, but their defense is often underrated. 

Sunday has been the best "under" day in the NBA for the past decade, and it isn't even close. This is an early start time (very early for Phoenix especially), and the early starts have been good under bets through the years as well.

The under is 4-0 in the Suns last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-2 in the Hornets last 7 Sunday games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Denver* The New Orleans Pelicans are about as inconsistent as a team could possibly be. New Orleans has recent wins over Utah, the LA Clippers, and at Denver. They also have losses at home to Minnesota (by 30), home against Miami (by 10), and home against Chicago (by 4). 

Lonzo Ball is questionable in this game and if he misses this one that is a pretty big loss for the Pelicans because he is a solid floor general. 

The Pelicans just went to Denver and won 113-108 five days ago. Denver is now coming off a 24 point embarrassing loss at Toronto. The Nuggets should want revenge here, and they are in a bounce back spot following that performance against Toronto.

Denver is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss by 10 points or more. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after giving up 125 points or more.

Take Denver. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat defense had their single worst performance of the year on Friday night against Indiana. The Pacers absolutely torched them for 20/36 from 3 point range and 137 points. 

Miami is 3rd in points per game allowed on the year. They are second in field goal percentage defense. The Heat are a defense first team, and I expect a bounce back performance on defense here. Miami had allowed 103 points per game or less in eight straight games before that terrible performance on Friday night! 

Miami's Goran Dragic is questionable with a back injury here. Dragic is one of their best offensive players and a questionable defensive player. The Heat also signed Trevor Ariza who is thought of as a solid defensive contributor.

This is an early Sunday game and those have been good for the under in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Jazz have been money as a road favorite this year. Why? The Jazz have the best defense in the NBA at home, but they are merely mediocre defensively on the road. Utah has allowed 1.158 points per possession in their last 10 road games (that ranks 23rd in the NBA). They are now up against a Boston offense that has been on fire of late. Boston is averaging 1.208 points per possession in their last five games. They have been shooting the ball really well from the outside.

Boston's defense has been non-existent of late. Boston has allowed 1.183 points per possession in their last eight games. That is second worst in the NBA. The Jazz have a high powered offense now, and it is hard to see Utah struggling to score here.

Look for both offenses to have a leg up here.

The over is 5-0 in the Jazz's last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 home games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Houston Rockets offense is terrible. Houston is playing without John Wall, Victor Oladipo, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon, and Daniel House Jr. The Rockets are averaging 0.952 points per possession in their last five games. No one else in the NBA is averaging worse than 1 point per possession in that time. Have the Rockets played great defenses during that time? Not really. We'll give them the Utah Jazz being a tough defense certainly. The other four games were against: Sacramento, Brooklyn, Cleveland, and Memphis. Three of those teams rank in the bottom eight in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

The Boston Celtics defense has been weak of late, but this is the worst offense they have been up against lately and it isn't even close. Boston should grab a lead here and slow things down. They do prefer to play at a slow tempo compared to the league average. Boston's offense ranks just 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the road. 

Houston's defense has been better at home, but their offense has actually been much worse at home this year than on the road.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte Hornets have been playing at a much faster pace in recent games. Without Zeller and Hayward, the team has a lineup full of weak defensive players, but guys who are more than capable of getting out and running. Charlotte is 4th in the NBA in tempo in their last five contests. The Hornets are also second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that period.

Minnesota is playing much faster under their new head coach. The Timberwolves have shot the ball poorly in their last couple games. They should shoot it better here. In the games since he has been coach, the Timberwolves games have gone to 251, 238, 240, and 217 points in regulation.

The Hornets last 5 games have finished at 242, 245, 251, 253, and 234 points. 

This total is high, but it isn't high enough. There should be a ton of uptempo basketball here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Timberwolves have a new coach in Chris Finch. Finch has made it clear he wants the team to push the pace. In his first three games as coach, the Timberwolves are 3-0 to the over. They rank second in the NBA in tempo in the last three games as well. Minnesota has a bottom five defense in the NBA, so if they want to play this fast I fully expect them to continue giving up a bunch of points. In Finch's first three games, the Timberwolves games have had totals of 251, 236, and 240 points. 

Phoenix plays at a slower pace than Minnesota, but the Suns are number one in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. The Suns should get a ton of open looks against this terrible Minnesota defense. While the Suns offense has been great of late, their defense has been subpar in the last ten games. 

With the Suns efficiency and Minnesota's pace, I think this one is a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Wizards rank first in the NBA in tempo. The Minnesota Timberwolves have played much faster in their first two games since new coach Chris Finch took over. He is a guy who really wants to see the team space out the floor and move quickly. Karl Anthony Towns will get plenty of chances to show himself as an offensive playmaker in this system.

Washington isn't a good defensive team. The Wizards do have several very athletic players who can get to the basket or create open looks from the outside for their teammates. This Minnesota defense is a bottom five defense in the NBA.

This is a really high total, but I believe this number is still too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Timberwolves have a new coach in Chris Finch. Finch has been around the NBA quite a bit and everywhere he has gone he has wanted to push the tempo. In Finch's first game as head coach the Timberwolves played their contest against Milwaukee to 106 possessions (3rd fastest paced game of the year), so it was an initial sign that the faster pace is already showing up. Look for that to continue. 

Minnesota has a bottom 8 or 9 defense in the NBA though, and the Chicago Bulls offense has been solid with LaVine and White really playing well. Chicago has potential to put up a big number here against this Wolves defense.

Chicago ranks fourth in the NBA in pace for the year overall, and I don't see them trying to slow this game down. 

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted the Minnesota total enough based on their new style of play. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are playing at the slowest pace in the NBA in their past ten games. Portland is playing at the 23rd fastest pace, so they are playing slowly as well. This is an extremely high total for a game that should be played at a slow pace.

Phoenix has been on fire from long distance. The Suns are a combined 46/85 (54.1%) from 3 point range in their last two games. This is an above average jump shooting team, but regression has to come for them from 3 point range. No team can shoot like this from 3 point range for too long. Portland also ranks 12th in the NBA in 3 point FG% defense.

Portland shoots a bunch of three pointers and Phoenix ranks 3rd in the league in 3 point defense. 

This total is so high because their recent games have been so high. The number is inflated a bit because of those high shooting percentages.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers host the Houston Rockets tonight. This isn't the same Houston Rockets team we have seen in recent seasons. This is now a team that is extremely inefficient on offense. In fact, Houston is dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games played. 

Philadelphia's instant offense in Shake Milton is gone for tonight's game. Milton is weak defensively and strong offensively. The players who get his minutes are an upgrade defensively and a downgrade on offense.

This is an awfully high total for a game that should be played at about an average tempo, especially considering we have one team who is very inefficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Detroit* The Detroit Pistons are coming off a bad performance last night against the Pacers. The Pacers were in a good spot though. The Pacers needed that win badly after several losses in a row. 

Boston is coming off a win over Toronto last night. The Celtics need to keep winning, but they don't have to win by margin and this is a pretty big spread.

Since Brad Stevens has been the Celtics head coach, the Celtics have been bad at covering big numbers against bad teams. How bad? The Celtics are 25-46 ATS (35.2%) when laying 8 points or more against a team with a win percentage of 45% or lower. That system applies to this contest.

The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a double digit home loss.

Grab the points.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat and Washington Wizards just met on Wednesday night. The final in that one was 103-100. There were 98 possessions in that game.

The total here has been bet up through the day. It has gotten to a point where I have to take the under. 

If we assume there will be 99 possessions (1 faster than Wednesday) even if the teams average 1.15 points per possession (very good shooting) this would be under the total.

One of the best under referees is the lead ref in this game. Brian Forte's games are 55% to the under in his career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back. They were excellent in their blowout win over Orlando. Their defense was tremendous in that game.

The New York Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA, and it isn't even close. New York is averaging 94.70 possessions per game in their last 10 contests. The second slowest in the NBA is the Denver Nuggets, but they are averaging 97.21 possessions per game.

The Clippers rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. The Knicks rank sixth in that same statistic. 

The Knicks are better coached this year and they have been competitive. In 10 of the Knicks last 13 games, the total has stayed under this number.

This is an early Sunday game and Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets have actually slowed their pace of play with Harden, Irving, and Durant on the floor together. Harden dribbles it a lot and uses up the clock more than most people realize.

Atlanta has also slowed their pace down and they have been better defensively of late.

For the season, these two teams are 5th and 12th in terms of tempo. In their last three games only, these two teams are 17th and 22nd in tempo. 

If they are going to play at an average pace or slower, this is an extremely high total. Sure, there is a chance all the shots are falling and it gets past this total. Still, with this referee crew skewing to the under and a slower pace I have to back the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sunday has been the single best day of the week to bet unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Early unders have done very well in the long run. Western Conference early unders (5 pm eastern or earlier) are 6-2 to the under this season.

The Clippers should have a fairly easy time with the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Clippers put up a pretty big point total against OKC in their last game, but they did make 24/25 from the free throw line in that game.

The Thunder are certainly more limited without Al Horford. Also, the Thunder rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last five games. 

For the season overall, the Clippers are 27th in the NBA in tempo. 

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are 5-0 to the under with Draymond Green in the lineup. Draymond Green can be an offensive liability at times, especially when the Warriors only have one elite shooter around him instead of two (with Klay Thompson out this year). Green though is the team's best defender and he has really helped the Warriors on that end of the floor.

The Lakers have the number one defensive efficiency rating in the NBA in their last five games. When they are engaged, the Lakers have a very athletic team that can really shut down the opposition.

The Lakers should have the lead in this game late, and LA has been good at slowing the pace down when they do have the lead in the fourth quarter.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics are still without Jayson Tatum. Tatum had been an offensive machine early this year, and he is a huge loss on that end of the floor. 

Tristan Thompson should get a bunch of minutes in the paint here with the Celtics very shorthanded in the frontcourt. Thompson is a really good defender and he should slow the Knicks down inside. Thompson isn't very good offensively and him playing more is a positive for the under.

Which NBA team is playing at the slowest pace in the last five games? The Knicks and it isn't very close. They are averaging only 93 possessions per contest in that time.

Boston put up a big point total against Orlando, but the Magic rank second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. The Magic also play pretty quickly.

This is an early start on Sunday, and these early games on Sunday have been very good under bets in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Pelicans* The New Orleans Pelicans haven't looked good in their last couple games. New Orleans needs to circle the wagons here. The Pelicans do have a pretty high upside. New Orleans has lost three straight games against the spread, and I think that has given us a good price in this game.

The LA Clippers have played down to competition and struggled with getting margin all season. The Clippers lost at home to the Spurs already this year. They also narrowly beat the Bulls. 

The New Orleans Pelicans aren't a team I'll want to lay points with a lot this year, but taking the points in spots that are favorable for them is something I'll look to do.

Take New Orleans here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs and Memphis Grizzlies played a 94-90 game on January 7th, and this total is simply too high given how many play makers are out of the lineup for both teams.

It should come as no surprise that without Ja Morant the Memphis Grizzlies have played far slower on offense. In their last four games, Memphis ranks as the 4th slowest team in the NBA. In the Cavs last four games, they have been the single slowest paced team in the NBA. 

This projects as a sloppy game played at a slow pace, and this line is quite a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls take on the LA Clippers at Staples Center in a early tipoff on Sunday afternoon. 

The under is 32-16 in Clippers home games that start at 5 pm eastern or earlier. The under has done very well in Sunday early games across the NBA in recent years overall.

The Clippers are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA thus far this season. Chicago has been shooting lights out, but the Clippers do have some better guys to guard White and Lavine than most teams do. I would expect their shots  to be contested better in this contest.

I'll take the under with this early game with a high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Kings* The Sacramento Kings are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Golden State Warriors. Chicago is coming off a stunning win over Portland on the road. The Bulls are very shorthanded right now due to COVID issues and injuries. 

This is a Bulls team that is clearly playing way above the level we should expect to see in future weeks and months from them. They are not this good. Chicago should come crashing down to earth again soon. The Bulls have been very busy of late and being shorthanded they are due for a tired effort game soon.

The Kings might get Halliburton back for this game. He has been a nice spark for this team. The Kings are the far more talented team even if he doesn't play here.

Take the Kings. 

*4 Star Play Under* The two slowest paced teams in the NBA so far this year meet in Phoenix on Sunday night. Phoenix has slowed down a lot with Chris Paul running the point. This is a team now that looks to run more halfcourt sets. The Suns are also clearly improved on the defensive end. Phoenix has been the second best defense in the NBA so far this year in six games. 

The LA Clippers can lock teams up on defense when they are fully engaged. I would expect the Clippers to be up for a game against a Phoenix team that has played well. The Clippers have multiple very good defenders on the perimeter to slow down the Suns outside shooters.

I think it has been hard for the books to adjust to the Suns new tempo and improved defense. They have started to adjust, but they haven't adjusted enough. Phoenix hasn't played a single game that finished with more than 216 points. All but one of their games have finished at 209 points or less.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are a completely different team than they were a year ago. New Orleans ran and played very little defense under Alvin Gentry. They are clearly improved on defense this year. They also rank dead last in tempo so far this year in the entire league. New Orelans has been a great under team so far this year, and I'm going to ride with the under another time here.

Oklahoma City hasn't played teams who play as slowly as the Pelicans so far this year. The Thunder have good defensive pieces on their roster. I would expect their offensive efficiency to be down a tick from a year ago.

There is a favorable referee crew for the under in this one as well.

Take the under here.