*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have one of the best offenses in the majors. They should finish in the top three or four in runs scored this year. Baltimore's offense isn't bad either with Manny Machado heating up and Adam Jones hitting it well. Justin Masterson is always on the edge of giving up a big inning the way he allows base runners to get on. Wei Yin Chen is a decent pitcher, but he doesn't have good out pitches to put away quality hitters like the Red Sox have.  Boston crushes left-handed pitching. I didn't expect to be able to get this total at just 8.5. I think this game gets to at least 10 runs. 

The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 vs. lefties. The over is 7-0-1 in Baltimore's last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 as a home favorite of -150 or less. A 17-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland Athletics lost a heartbreaker last night in extra innings at home against Houston. The Astros are certainly a much better team than they have been in the past, but they aren't going to keep winning at the pace they are on right now. Houston's bullpen isn't deep, and last night's game going into extras hurts them here. Graveman has a high upside for Oakland, which is something I can't say about Scott Feldman. Feldman has been absolutely awful against Oakland in his career. In 53 and 1/3 innings pitching at Oakland (a pitcher's park) he has an ERA of 7.59. The Astros are 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. Oakland. Lay the short price. Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play on Angels -1.5* This is a fade of Wandy Rodriguez. The guy was constantly crushed last season, and I don't see things getting better for him as he ages. Los Angeles' lineup has a lot of guys that can crush left-handed pitching (Trout and Freese in particular). Garrett Richards has a pretty decent bullpen backing him up, and the Angels have the potential to put up a very big number here. Since the moneyline is too expensive, I'm playing the run line. Take the Angels -1.5. 

*5 Star Late Night TOP Play CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angels offense is a very good one. The Angels can put up runs in bunches when the opposing pitcher is off his game at all. Wandy Rodriguez was terrible last year, and while he had pretty good numbers this spring, those numbers often don't translate into the games that mean something. The Angels are good against lefties and I see them feasting on Rodriguez here. Garrett Richards is a good pitcher, but he's still working his way back from an injury. He struggled with his command in his minor league rehab start and he did the exact same thing vs. Houston in his start five days ago. The Rangers offense isn't elite, but they still have enough to piece together some scoring chances. This total at just 7.5 is very surprising. I think 8.5 or 9 is where this should be. 

The over is 3-0-1 in Richards' last 4 home starts vs. Texas. The over is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 home games. The over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Take the over big! 

*4 Star Play on Pirates ML* I'm really high on Cole. He has a tremendous upside as a starting pitcher in the big leagues. Arizona's offense isn't very good outside of Goldschmitt. The Pirates have been up and down so far this year, but I still think the Pirates have the better lineup from top to bottom. Pittsburgh has the huge bullpen advantage as well. I think this line should be more like -140, so I like the value on it. Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Washington Nationals are better than their record would indicate. This team isn't going to be below .500 for very long. Washington's pitching staff is just amazing from top to bottom. They slipped up a couple times against the Cardinals, but playing Miami is a large step down. Mat Latos is struggling with his command right now, and the Nationals offense is starting to get healthy. Jordan Zimmerman is an underrated pitcher who is typically very consistent. Zimmerman has an ERA of 2.66 in his career when pitching in Miami. Huge pitching edge for the Nats makes this a good value at such a short price.

The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 games in Miami. The Nationals are 8-1 in Zimmerman's last 9 starts vs. the NL East. A 13-1 angle. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Mets are definitely a better team than they were last year, but they aren't even close to as good as they've looked so far this year. They are without David Wright now, and their lineup is really weak on paper. They've found ways to score runs lately, but it should be tougher sledding against the Yankees this weekend. The Mets have benefited from an easy schedule of late, and the Yankees are playing good baseball. I like Jacob Degrom, so this is no fade of him, rather it's just a fade of the Mets at this price. Pineda is a quality pitcher, and I don't see the Mets scoring many. The Yankees lineup is good, and I think this price is too cheap. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The San Francisco Giants offense is a mess right now. The Dodgers have Yasiel Puig back in the lineup. Los Angeles has a big edge offensively here. Bolsinger is a bit of an unknown, but he has pitched pretty well in the minors. Ryan Vogelsong is a guy I don't trust. I think his stuff is getting worse. The Dodgers lost last night in tough fashion, and I think this is a great shot for them to bounce back quickly against their rivals. The Dodgers have proven great at bouncing back in the past. They are 39-18 in their last 57 following a loss. Take the Dodgers. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets keep finding ways to win games. They won it late last night over Atlanta. The Mets are certainly improved, but I don't think they are as good as their record would indicate. Atlanta isn't a good team either though, and the Braves offense is starting to come back down to earth. The Braves lineup isn't good, and Bartolo Colon has great numbers against nearly everyone in this Atlanta lineup. Teheran is a quality pitcher for Atlanta, and he has pitched well against the Mets in the past. It's a get away day which means we could easily see a couple key bats out of the lineup here. The under is 6-2 in Teheran's last 8 starts vs. the Mets. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners offense is a lot better with Nelson Cruz in the middle of the lineup. Cruz can make a pitcher pay for a mistake in a hurry. Seth Smith was an underrated pickup for this team as well. Smith really hits it well off right-handed pitching. Houston's lineup is gradually improving, and they are much better against left-handed pitching. Springer is a star in the making, and the Astros have several quality right-handed bats. J.A. Happ and Roberto Hernandez aren't good pitchers at all. A total set this low with these guys, and I'm taking the over. Both bullpens have struggled of late as well. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres have taken the first two games in this series. This is a four game series. San Diego is a much better team than they have been in the past, because now they can score runs. Matt Kemp and Justin Upton in the middle of the order is a big change from what the Padres have had in the past few seasons. James Shields also gives them a big game pitcher who normally doesn't get rattled. Colorado's offense is very good, and this could be a high scoring game, but the Padres have a huge pitching edge and a huge advantage in the bullpen. Kyle Kendrick has a 6.33 ERA in 7 starts at Coors Field. 

The Padres are 4-0 in their last vs. the NL West. Colorado is 0-4 in their last 4 home games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 overall. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a division foe. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games after losing the first two games in a series. The Rockies are 0-4 in Jim Joyce's last 4 games behind home plate. He's behind the plate here. A 32-0 angle. Take San Diego. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the MONTH* The Kansas City Royals send their worst starting pitcher out to take on the Minnesota Twins worst starting pitcher here. Jeremy Guthrie has had an ERA well above 4 at Kaufman Stadium the last two seasons despite the fact that he plays in front of one of the best defenses in baseball. Guthrie is past his prime now, and the Twins lineup is better than they were last year. Mike Pelfrey has been even worse than Guthrie. Pelfrey isn't a good starter at all, and his worst month of the year in his big league career has been April (5.28). Pelfrey has a 9.49 ERA in three career starts against the Royals. I don't see how the oddsmakers came up with a total of 8 runs for a game like this. This is a neutral park and we have a neutral home plate umpire. I think a total of 9 or even 9.5 would have made more sense. Take the over big! 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Boston Red Sox have one of the best lineups in the majors this year. Boston is going to pile up the runs in a lot of different locations this year. I won with the Red Sox last night, but it wasn't because of that offense. It was because they blanked the Rays 1-0. Boston's offense should wake up against the youngster Nate Karns. Karns has been allowing far too many baserunners so far this year, and the Red Sox are the type of team that usually makes pitchers pay for that. Joe Kelly has been solid this year, and the Rays offense isn't very impressive.

Boston is 4-0 in Kelly's last 4 road starts. They are 6-0 in his last 6 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. Tampa Bay is 0-4 in their last 4. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. They are 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog. A 37-1 angle. Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals are a much better team than they showed early this year. Washington is going to win a lot of games this year. Doug Fister has a brilliant 1.97 ERA in 14 career starts in Washington DC. He does a great job using this spacious park to his benefit. John Lackey is a good pitcher, but he's not elite at this point in his career. St. Louis certainly is a good team, but for Washington to be almost even money against anyone at home with a terrific pitcher on the mound is too much value for me to pass. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* I took the over when these two teams played last night, and I'm taking the over again here. Ubaldo Jimenez can either be brilliant or he can be awful. It's hard to predict how he'll be on any given night. He does face a really good lineup here though. Aaron Sanchez probably has a nice future in the big leagues, but he has a lot of work to do. Sanchez hasn't been good so far this year, and the Orioles offense is underrated as a unit. Both of these pitchers could give up some very big innings. I was surprised to see this total at 8.5. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle Total* The Pittsburgh Pirates blew the game late last night vs. the Chicago Cubs. This Cubs offense is clearly much better than they were a year ago. It helps having a lot more depth in the lineup. Pittsburgh's offense hasn't been very good this year, but I still believe the Pirates offense is at least as good as the league average. Jason Hammel is a mediocre pitcher who will likely have an ERA near 4.00 at the end of the season. Vance Worley should be at a similar mark, and Worley has a history of pitching poorly in the first half of the season. This total is set as if we have two great pitchers, and that isn't the case.

The over is 3-0-2 in the Cubs last 5. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 vs. a righty. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games. The over is 4-0 in Hammel's last 4 starts overall. The over is 3-0-2 in the Pirates last 5. The over is 3-0-2 in their last 5 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 3-0-2 in their last 5 home games. The over is 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs. the NL Central. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 vs. a righty. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 meetings against each other. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh. A 36-0 angle. Take the over big!

*4 Star MLB Moneyline Value* I don't like going against Chris Archer, because I'm high on his potential, but the value is too good here. Boston has one of the best lineups in baseball. The Red Sox are going to score runs in bunches this year. Tampa Bay's offense isn't even close to that level. Wade Miley has always been a good pitcher on the road in his career, and Miley is being underrated right now based on his bad start to the season. Archer has been significantly better on the road than at home, which makes him a slightly better fade in this spot. At plus money, Boston is my play. Take Boston. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Trevor Cahill should improve on his numbers this year now that he is facing worse offenses and playing in much more pitcher-friendly ballparks. He didn't pitch well in his first start, but he'll face a Mets team without David Wright in the middle of the lineup here. Atlanta's lineup has overperformed in a big way so far this year, but it's still early. I'm convinced this Atlanta lineup is still one of the worst in baseball. They have been terrible against lefties the last couple years. Jon Niese has been lights out at Citi Field the last two seasons. The under is 3-0-1 in Niese's last 4 home starts vs. Atlanta. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Baltimore Orioles have been a great team to back as an underdog the last two seasons. Buck Showalter's team is playing pretty good baseball right now, and they aren't intimidated by anyone. Bud Norris was blasted in his first start, but his numbers against Toronto have been pretty good in the past. Mark Buehrle has had a nice career, but he is aging and he allows a bunch of base runners. The Toronto bullpen should end up being one of the worst bullpens in the majors this year. The Orioles are 4-0 in Norris' last 4 starts as an underdog. Jose Reyes is questionable for this one, and if he misses this one that's another reason to take Baltimore. The price is a good one. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals are definitely a good team, but they are getting a little too much respect here. Washington started the season slowly, but the Nationals are going to win a ton of games this year. Washington has the best rotation in baseball, and they have one of the best bullpens as well. The offense is starting to come around now that they are getting healthy. Gio Gonzalez has a 2.87 ERA in his career in 43 starts at Nationals Park in Washington D.C. Lance Lynn has a 2.78 home ERA, but a 4.08 ERA on the road in his career. 

St. Louis is 0-4 in Lynn's last 4 road starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 as a road underdog. They are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. They are 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. A 25-0 angle. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION Play* The Toronto Blue Jays have one of the best offenses in the major leagues. This is a team that can put together big innings at any time. Baltimore's offense is much better than most people realize. With Manny Machado healthy and swinging it well, this offense is much more dangerous. Mark Buehrle has a 5.19 ERA against the Orioles in the last three seasons. There won't be too many games lined at 8.5 with the Blue Jays involved this year and no elite pitcher on the mound. Bud Norris and Mark Buehrle are both nothing more than average pitchers at this stage of their careers.

The over is 5-0 in Norris' last 5 during game one of a series. The over is 6-0 in Norris' last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Buehrle's last 4 Tuesday starts. The over is 7-0 in his last 7 following a quality start. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 during game one of a series. A 27-0 angle. Take the over.  

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies were swept out of Los Angeles. They return home to Coors Field, where they have always been a much better bet. Colorado's offense was blanked yesterday, but they are loaded with talent and they'll pile up the runs this year. Despaigne starts for the Padres, and his home vs. road splits are striking. He has a home ERA of 1.64 in his career and a road ERA of 5.31. He's on the road here, and he's in the most hitter friendly park of them all. Jorge De La Rosa has been lights out at Coors Field the last few years. How good? The Rockies are 48-9 in his last 57 home starts. De La Rosa has done a nice job pitching in this park, and the Padres are a bit banged up right now on offense. 

The Padres are 0-4 in Despaigne's last 4 road starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts as an underdog. Colorado is 9-0 in their last 9 as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are 9-0 in their last 9 as a home favorite. The Rockies are 9-0 in De La Rosa's last 9 home starts vs. the Padres. A 35-0 angle. Take Colorado. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cleveland Indians haven't played as well early this season as they did last year, but this is a quality team. I'm confident they will get it going. Trevor Bauer has always had really good stuff, and he appears to be breaking out a bit early this year. The White Sox have a free swinging offense, and that works to his advantage. John Danks starts here for the White Sox. Danks has a terrible history against Cleveland. In 23 career starts, Danks has a 5.19 ERA against the Indians. His ERA against the Indians in the last four years is an abysmal 5.59. Huge pitching advantage for Cleveland, and this price is off.

The Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less. The Indians are 4-0 in Bauer's last 4 after a quality start. The White Sox are 1-8 in Danks' last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 0-4 in Danks' last 4 starts vs. the Indians. A 21-1 angle. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* When betting on Major League Baseball, it's all about value. Over the course of the season, the most important thing is getting a good value, especially on moneyline plays. Moneyline sports are different to handicap than point spread sports. Why do I talk about value so much here? Because I see the Yankees as a nice value on Monday night. While I realize Detroit is playing very well right now, the Tigers aren't going to win 100 games and be amazing. They do have some holes on their team. C.C. Sabathia has pitched far better than his stats would indicate this year. Alfredo Simon isn't as good as he has looked early in the year, and he is due for some regression. I put the Yankees chances of winning at right about 50/50, and that means this plus money price is a nice value. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Mariners offense has been a huge disappointment so far this year. Nelson Cruz is crushing the baseball, but the rest of the lineup is scuffling. Ross Detwiler isn't a good pitcher, but he's not as bad as he's pitched in his first couple outings. Seattle struggles against left-handed pitching. James Paxton has been great when pitching at Safeco in his career. Paxton has an amazing 1.85 ERA in 8 career starts at home. Texas' lineup is way down from what they were a couple years ago. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he's been a tremendous umpire for under bettors. The under is 25-5 in his last 30 Sunday games behind the dish. He has a huge strike zone which should help both pitchers.

The under is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 as an underdog of +151 to +200. The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 as a -151 to -200 favorite. The under is 5-0 in Paxton's last 5 home starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 as a home favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 34-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies have one of the best lineups in baseball. With Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki both healthy, this is an offense that can do some real damage. Now that Arrenado is becoming real force it makes this offense that much better. The Rockies are going to score a bunch of runs this year. Eddie Butler starts here for the Rockies, and I think it's only a matter of time before we finally see that he isn't very good. He is due for some major regression after some extremely lucky results in his first couple starts. Brandon McCarthy is very prone to giving up the long ball, and the Rockies have plenty of guys who can make him pay. Both teams have the ability to put up big innings. 

The over is 6-0 in the Rockies last 6 when their opponent scores 5 or more runs last game. The over is 8-0 in the Rockies last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in the Dodgers last 5 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The over is 9-0 in the Dodgers last 9 home games vs. a team with a 60% or higher winning percentage on the road. A 28-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks have a great hitter in Paul Goldschmidt, but the rest of their lineup isn't any good. San Francisco's offense has been really bad so far this season. Buster Posey is great in the middle of the order, but this lineup misses Sandoval, and they probably miss the injured Hunter Pence even more. Tim Hudson generally throws it well early in the season, and in his career against Arizona (13 starts), he has a stellar 2.01 ERA. Jeremy Hellickson should benefit from the spacious AT&T Park versus Chase Field. Dan Iassogna as the home plate umpire is a nice bonus too. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cincinnati Reds started 4-0 this year, but they are only 5-5 now after playing some bad baseball the last few days. St. Louis has owned the Reds of late, especially when they play at Busch Stadium. Homer Bailey is a guy I'm pretty high on in general, but if there is one team that is Homer Bailey's kryptonite, it has been the St. Louis Cardinals. In 9 career starts at Busch Stadium, Bailey has a 5.74 ERA. Last year, he had a 6.46 ERA against the Cardinals in three starts. This is Bailey's first start of the year as he comes back from an injury. Carlos Martinez is a solid young pitcher with good stuff. The pitching matchup here favors St. Louis. The Cardinals have a better lineup than the Reds as well. The Reds are 19-45 in their last 64 games in St. Louis. 

Cincinnati is 0-6 in Bailey's last 6 starts during game 2 of a series. They are 0-5 in his last 5 vs. the NL Central. They are 0-4 in his last 4 Saturday starts. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. They are 4-0 in Martinez's last 4 starts as a favorite. The Reds are 1-8 in Bailey's last 9 starts at St. Louis. A 31-1 angle. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins start Phil Hughes here, and Hughes has become a brand new pitcher in his time in Minnesota. He has been pounding the strike zone, and he does a much better job keeping the ball in the ballpark than he did in the past. The Indians haven't had much success off him in the past. Cleveland starts Danny Salazar. Salazar has a really high upside, and the Tribe expect big things from him. Neither of these offenses are particularly great. The weather here calls for wind blowing in from center field at 15 miles per hour. Gibson is a good home plate umpire for the under as well.

The under is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 road games. The under is 7-0-1 in Hughes' last 8 starts after giving up 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star TGIF Play of Day* The Washington Nationals have the best pitching staff in baseball, and I don't think it's particularly close. On the other hand, Washington's offense is bad right now. Washington is missing some key players from the lineup, and without them they are struggling to score. Philadelphia probably has the worst lineup in baseball, and the Phillies are up against one of baseball's best pitchers here. Max Scherzer should mow down this lineup in short order, especially in the pitcher-friendly park in Washington DC. Sean O'Sullivan pitched well against the Nationals last time out. I don't trust O'Sullivan very much, but there is another key reason I like the under here. That is the presence of Ron Kulpa behind home plate. Kulpa is one of the very best under umpires in the business. He loves to call strikes, and that should lead to more punch outs than normal for both pitchers.

The under is 2-0-2 in the Phillies last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 3-0-1 in the Phillies last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. The under is 4-0 in the Nats last 4 home games with a total set between 7 and 8.5. The under is 3-0-1 in the Nats last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers meet in the third and final game of this series. The Milwaukee offense has been a major disappointment so far this year. Carlos Gomez left last night's game with an injury and he's questionable for this one. Gomez is the table setter for this lineup, and without him they would be much weaker. John Lackey was excellent in Busch Stadium last year (2.38 ERA). Mike Fiers has been a really good pitcher the last couple years for Milwaukee. Fiers has been almost unhittable against the Cardinals. He has a 1.30 ERA vs. the Cardinals in 27 and 2/3 innings of work. His deceptive delivery seems to really bother St. Louis. John Hirschbeck is the umpire behind home plate here and he's a great under umpire because of his large strike zone. It's get away day here, which means some key players could get a day off.

The under is 6-0 in the Brewers last 6 games as an underdog. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 6-0 in Fiers last 6 starts as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts during game three of a series. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres are clearly a much better offense than they were last year. When you add guys like Justin Upton and Matt Kemp to the lineup, there will be a big increase in production. Chase Anderson could be a good pitcher in time, but he has been roughed up on the road in his young career. He has a good change up, but he needs to work on his other pitches. Brandon Morrow hasn't been a consistent starter in his career. He was brilliant in his first start of the year, but he's done this before and then been blasted in the next start many times throughout his career. Marvin Hudson is the umpire here, and he has a small strike zone which should hurt both of these guys. The biggest reason I like this play is simply the ridiculously low number. I know this is PetCo Park, but a total of 6.5 with these two pitchers on the mound just doesn't make sense. Based on pure value alone, I have to take the over here.

The over is 6-0 in Anderson's last 6 starts on 4 days rest. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 as a road underdog. The over is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in the Padres last 5 following a win. A 32-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night MONEY* The San Diego Padres are a much better team than they were last year. Arizona should end up being one of the worst teams in the National League this year. While I think Chase Anderson has a bright future, he needs to develop more pitches to go along with his changeup, and Anderson has been really bad on the road in his young career. Brandon Morrow should have much improved numbers at PetCo Park. San Diego has the much better offense and the much better bullpen. A very fair price on the home team. Take San Diego. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians have struggled in a big way against left-handed pitching both last year and so far this year. John Danks isn't a good pitcher, but he is left-handed. Some Indians players have had good success against Danks in the past, but a couple of them that have been the best in the past (Gomes and Swisher) are on the DL right now with injuries. Trevor Bauer has the stuff to be a breakout candidate this year. Bauer looked tremendous in his first start (no hits allowed), and he has pitched well at Progressive Field in the past. Bauer has been much better during the daytime in his career (3.06 ERA) vs. the night time (5.30 ERA). Vic Carapazza is a very good under umpire and it's get away day for these two teams which is a help too.

The under is 5-0 in Bauer's last 5 starts as a home favorite. The under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Miami Marlins at even money here is a good value. Eric Stults isn't a good major league pitcher. He was never particularly good, and now that he is 35 years old, he's even worse. Stults isn't the type of guy who can blow it by anyone, so he solely relies on painting corners. The Marlins offense may not be a good one, but they are better than they have shown so far this year. Stanton is elite in the middle of the order, and the Marlins should get more men on base here with Stults on the mound. Dan Haren has pitched much better in his career in the first half of the season vs. the second half. He often wears down late in the year. Though the Braves have started fast, I still don't think they are a good team. Take Miami. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Drew Rucinski makes the first start of his career here for the Angels. Rucinski was hit around hard by the Rangers last September in a relief outing. While he has been good so far this year, I don't like him getting his first start in a hitter's park like Texas. The Rangers lineup isn't as good as they were a couple years ago, but they are still decent. With Shin Soo Choo healthy again that is a big boost for the Rangers. Rucinski isn't likely to go deep into the game, and the Angels bullpen isn't good. Nick Martinez is a subpar pitcher and the Angels lineup is deep and they are going to score a lot of runs this year. I don't think either starter lasts long here, and both bullpens are bad. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Matt Harvey looked absolutely amazing in his first start of the year in Washington. I realize the Nationals offense is really bad right now, but he made everyone look foolish in that game (including Bryce Harper). Harvey's stuff looked just as good as ever, and he kept his velocity all through that game. Even though the Nationals lineup is bad right now, they aren't as bad as the Phillies lineup. Harvey is pitching at home for the first time in more than a year, and I expect a great outing from him. David Buchanan got some good luck on batted balls in play last year, and I expect some regression from him this year. The Mets lineup is improved. This one is a mismatch. Take the New York Mets -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers are a good team, but they aren't as good as they have looked the first week of the season. Pittsburgh is a quality team, and they are better than they looked at the beginning of the year. Detroit clearly has a better lineup than Pittsburgh, but I think that's the only spot they have an advantage here. A.J. Burnett has pitched well at PNC Park over the years, and his splits against current Tigers players are good. Shane Greene lacks consistency as a starter at this young age. There's no doubt that Pittsburgh has the much better bullpen here. Detroit's bullpen is one of the weakest in the majors. Pittsburgh also has one of the best home field advantages in the game. 

The Pirates are 7-0 in Burnett's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 6-0 in his last 6 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the AL Central. The Tigers are 0-5 in their last 5 games in Pittsburgh. A 23-0 angle. Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oakland Athletics offense doesn't have any real big names in it, but this time finds ways to manufacture runs. Scott Feldman hasn't had much success against Oakland in the past. Another key to this game is the fact that Houston used up their bullpen in a big way on Sunday in their 14 inning win over Texas. Houston's bullpen looks very thin for this one. Oakland's Scott Kazmir is definitely capable of dominating, but this Houston offense is much better against left-handed pitching than they are against right-handers. Houston should score quite a few more runs this year as their young talent improves. 

The over is 5-0 in Oakland's last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. The over is 3-0-1 in Kazmir's last 4 starts overall. The over is 3-0-2 in his last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 31-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The New York Yankees are showing some solid value in this one. New York is coming off a nice performance Sunday night in a blowout win over Boston. The Yankees and Orioles are pretty similar as far as talent level this year in my opinion. This one is primarily playing a price, but a benefit is also how the Yankees have hit Wei Yin Chen in the past. Chen has an ERA over 5 against the Yankees. This Yankees lineup hits left-handed pitching better than righties. Michael Pineda has a good arm, and now that he's healthy he should have a good season. He has a really high upside. Take New York. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The St. Louis Cardinals play their home opener here. Adam Wainwright was masterful in the season opener vs. Chicago. Wainwright has an ERA barely above 2 in his career against Milwaukee. The Brewers are a team that is down quite a bit from last season. Milwaukee starts Matt Garza here, and Garza was beaten up pretty good by the Cardinals bats last season. At a significant plus money price, I'll take the run line here in a game that I believe is a mismatch. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Kansas City Royals send Danny Duffy to the hill on Monday to take on Minnesota. Duffy has been lights out against the Twins in his career. In 43 innings, he has a 2.09 ERA against Minnesota. Even more impressive is his 1.35 ERA in 20 innings at Target Field. Trevor May starts here for the Twins, and the Royals have a lineup that is generally very good against left-handed pitching. May has been inconsistent in his young career, and this is a higher pressure start than normal (home opener). 

The Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL Central. They are 7-0 in Duffy's last 7 during game one of a series. They are 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 Monday starts. The Royals are 6-0 in Duffy's last 6 starts vs. Minnesota. A 27-0 angle. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Baseball Total CASH* The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox meet on Sunday Night Baseball here. Boston has gotten the best of the Yankees in the first two games in this series. Rather than taking a side, I'll play the over here. Clay Buchholz was lit up by the Yankees on multiple occasions last year. He has a career ERA of 5.64 vs. the Yankees. Masahiro Tanaka didn't look right in his first start. Many observers believe he is pitching at far less than 100 percent health. The Red Sox lineup is deep. Both teams are capable of putting up a big inning at any point in this game. A total set at just 7 is too low with question marks on the pitchers and two solid offenses.

The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in Buchholz's last 5 starts. The over is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 overall. The over is 6-0 in the Yankees last 6 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 after giving up 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 32-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Seattle Mariners will start Felix Hernandez in this one. Hernandez has obviously been one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball over the past few years, but he hasn't dominated any other team as much as he has dominated the Oakland Athletics. He has been at his best when pitching in Oakland. In his last 9 starts in Oakland, Hernandez has an ERA of 1.95. This Oakland lineup is scrappy, but they aren't the type of guys who generally have success against dominant stuff like King Felix has. Jesse Hahn is a solid pitcher, but he's obviously at a big disadvantage here. The Mariners are much better against right handers than lefties. The better lineup, the much better starting pitcher, and the slightly better bullpen.

Seattle is 14-3 in Hernandez's last 17 starts in Oakland. The road team is 18-8 in home plate umpire Mike DiMuro's last 26 games behind the plate. Oakland is 5-23 in their last 28 games as an underdog. Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Astros booted the ball around enough to blow it on Saturday night defensively. They also only scored two runs on their 11 hits. I lost on the Astros yesterday, but I'm going back to them here. Houston has a massive pitching advantage here. Dallas Keuchel is a very good young left-handed starter. The way he came on late last year was amazing. He was brilliant in the season opener vs. Cleveland. Keuchel is a great ground ball pitcher, which is very good at a place like Arlington. Colby Lewis is awful when pitching in Texas. His home ERA last year was 5.90. There might be a few people starting to believe in him after nice first start in Oakland, but I'm not one of them. Houston's lineup is much improved and their bullpen is now better than the Rangers pen. 

Houston is 6-0 in Keuchel's last 6 starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 vs. an AL West foe. Texas is 0-4 in their last 4 following a win. A 15-0 angle. Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB Saturday Night SMASHER* The Houston Astros are definitely a team on the rise. They aren't a good team yet, but they are no longer a bottom feeder. In fact, there's a pretty decent chance they'll end up ahead of the Texas Rangers this year. Texas' offense isn't very good to start with, and they lost two key pieces yesterday. Ryan Rua will go on the DL and miss a significant amount of time. Shin Soo Choo is likely to miss this game with back spasms as well, and Choo is important for this team. Houston has a young offense with a lot of talented hitters. Yovani Gallardo doesn't have a good defense behind him anymore, and the bullpen for Texas might be the worst in the American League. At this price, Houston is a value play. Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays have two of the weaker offenses in the big leagues. In Chris Archer and Jarred Cosart we have two quality youngsters starting on the mound in this one too. Cosart is a little less consistent than Archer, but Cosart has brilliant numbers against Tampa Bay. In 23 career innings against the Rays, Cosart has allowed a grand total of just three runs. Archer pitched 7 strong innings of one run baseball in his only career start against Miami last season. This one should be a close one, and I expect a low scoring affair.

The under is 8-0-1 in the Marlins last 9 Saturday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in the previous game. The under is 5-0 in home plate umpire Gerry Davis' last 5 Saturday games behind the dish. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Red Sox/Yankees Early MONEY* The Boston Red Sox beat the New York Yankees 6-5 in 19 innings on Friday night. That game ended after 2 AM Eastern time. The fact that New York lost that game actually makes me like this bet a little bit more. They'll be hungry to get back at their rivals from Boston, and they get a quick opportunity to do so here. Adam Warren has the potential to be a very good pitcher in his career, and I'm much higher on him than I am Joe Kelly. Kelly starts for Boston in this one. Kelly doesn't have dynamic enough stuff to get through the lineup multiple times it seems. The Yankees have the better bullpen here, which could prove important as well. Mike Muchlinski is an umpire that has been very good to home teams over the years, and that's another boost. Take New York. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's start Drew Pomeranz here and I think he's a breakout candidate this year. Pomeranz has improved his mechanics in the offseason, and if he stays healthy he has a very high upside. The exact same thing can be said about Taijuan Walker. Walker led the majors in ERA in Spring Training. While I don't like to read too much into that kind of thing, his velocity was excellent and he has nasty stuff. The Mariners have a lefty heavy lineup, which means they often struggle against left-handed pitching. Oakland's offense just isn't good, and Walker has shut down stuff. Both of these bullpens are tremendous. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Mets are clearly an improved team from last year. Jon Niese has been a battler throughout his career, and his dominance of the Braves in the past has been impressive. The Braves have started 3-0, but I still don't think it will be a good year for Atlanta. This Braves lineup just isn't good enough. It doesn't help Atlanta that they have Eric Stults starting in this one. He's an aging pitcher who tries to nibble at the corners, but he doesn't have good enough stuff. The Mets lineup is improved and they are a much better offense than Atlanta. The only big advantage Atlanta has here is in the bullpen, but I think the Mets will grab a lead early and hold on.

The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 as a home underdog. They are 0-4 in their last 4 Friday games. The Mets are 2-0 in Niese's last 2 starts against Atlanta. A 15-0 angle. Take the New York Mets. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Texas Rangers don't have the same strong offense they had a few years ago. Colin McHugh was a huge surprise last year, and while many continue to doubt him, he looked great again in Spring Training. Derek Holland is a good lefty, and he has solid numbers in his career against Houston. With the temperature still not very high, Rangers Stadium isn't the hitter-friendly park that it will be later in the season. I look for both starters to work deep into this one. The under is 13-6 in Holland's last 19 home starts. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Cleveland Indians have their home opener on Friday afternoon. Zach McAllister gets the ball for the Tribe. His stuff has looked really good in the Spring, with his velocity being up significantly from past years. Detroit looked good against Minnesota, but Cleveland is a big step up from Minnesota. Alfredo Simon is a guy who is likely to regress from last year's numbers. Cleveland has a very left-handed hitting heavy lineup, and that should help them a lot against Simon. I see Cleveland as the team to beat in the American League Central thanks to their overall team balance. McAllister is underrated and the Indians deserve to be laying a bigger price than this. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles have their home opener on Friday afternoon. Bud Norris will start in this one. Norris has high quality stuff, but he can be inconsistent. One thing that really stands out to me is how well he has pitched against the Blue Jays in the past. Norris had a stellar 2.36 ERA in 34 and 1/3 innings against Toronto last year. Mark Buehrle starts for the Jays here, and he has been hit hard by the Orioles recently. He has an ERA a little bit above 5 in his last four starts against the Orioles. A ton of the Baltimore lineup has hit him well. Rain is expected at some point in this game, which could benefit the Orioles even more. There's no question Baltimore has the better bullpen here, and if it turns into a bullpen game the Orioles are the side to favor.

Toronto is 0-5 in Buehrle's last road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 10-1 in Norris' last 11 starts during game one of a series. The Orioles are 6-0 in Norris' last 6 vs. Toronto. They are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. Toronto. A 25-1 angle. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Boston Red Sox lineup was quieted last night by Aaron Harang. That one surprised me quite a bit. I don't see it happening two nights in a row, especially with David Buchanan on the hill for Philadelphia. Buchanan is notorious for allowing a lot of base runners. The Red Sox should have plenty of opportunities to hit with runners in scoring position. The Phillies offense is one of the worst in the majors. Boston's Justin Masterson appears to have some of his command back that he lacked last year. Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Washington Nationals have the best pitching staff in baseball, and it isn't even close. Stephen Strasburg starts on day three for this team. Strasburg has had a bit of bad luck in recent years, but he still has tremendous stuff and has a really high upside. Strasburg has made six career starts against the Mets and he has a 2.19 ERA in those starts. Matt Harvey starts for the Mets in this one, and he is getting a bunch of respect. He deserves respect, but we need to remember that he isn't likely to be around for a long time here. The Mets will be extremely careful with Harvey. If he is only around 5 innings or so, that means 4 innings of work for a Met bullpen that has tons of injury problems and they are a weakness right now. Washington has one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Nationals are 5-1 in Strasburg's six career starts against the Mets. At this very short price, I like the home team here. Take Washington.

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego Padres are much improved offensively. They aren't quite as deep in the rotation, but Andrew Cashner has top notch stuff. When Cashner is healthy, he has the stuff capable of being an ace. Cashner has good numbers against the Dodgers. He pitched very well in Spring Training, while Brandon McCarthy struggled. San Diego owns a massive advantage in the bullpen, so if this game is tight late that is a good sign. The Dodgers lineup isn't quite as a good as it was last year, and McCarthy has always been an inconsistent pitcher. Cashner isn't getting the respect he deserves. This is a really nice value on the underdog. Take San Diego. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* Sometimes you just have to play a price in baseball. While I realize the Oakland Athletics deserve to be the favorite, seeing them at -165 or -170 shocked me. Scott Kazmir isn't a guy who can be trusted. Kazmir can either go out and totally shut down the opponent, or he could get bombed. Texas starts a decent pitcher in Detwiler here, and Oakland's offense isn't good at all. At this price, I can't pass up the underdog. This is a play on a price alone, and in the long run in baseball finding values like this one will end up making you money. Take Texas. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jeremy Hellickson will make his first start for the Diamondbacks here. Hellickson has always been a really inconsistent pitcher, and I'm not high on him with a worse defense behind him now and in what is a hitter-friendly ballpark. Chris Heston starts here for the Giants. Not many scouts are high on Heston's long-term potential in the big leagues. The Giants have had a bunch of pitching injuries, and that has led to him starting in this one. Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open, and with a total set this low with two questionable pitchers, I like the over quite a bit. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Kansas City Royals are probably down a notch or two from last year, but I don't think they are down as much as the betting market seems to think. They are a very small favorite against Jose Quintana, who they have hit very well in the past. Most of the guys in the Royals lineup have good lifetime numbers against him. Danny Duffy has been great at home much of his career. Duffy also has a 0.71 ERA in his career with home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt behind the dish. Duffy has a nice 3.24 ERA in his career vs. the White Sox. Chicago is better this year, but I still don't think they are an above average team. The Royals have a huge bullpen advantage.

Chicago is 0-5 in Quintana's last 5 starts vs. the Royals. The White Sox are 0-5 in his last 5 Wednesday starts. They are 0-5 in his last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series. A 19-0 angle. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The Houston Astros blanked the Cleveland Indians in game one of this series. Cleveland struggles against lefties and Houston had a good one going in Dallas Keuchel in that game. This time around it is Scott Feldman on the mound. Feldman is a below average big league pitcher, and the Indians lineup should be hungry to get some rallies going. Carlos Carrasco starts for the Indians here. I really like Carrasco's upside potential. He has made two starts against Houston in his career and he's allowed a grand total of one run in those starts. Cleveland should have a good season this year, and at this price I like them on the road against a Houston team that still isn't all that great. Take Cleveland. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Eddie Butler is one of the worst starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. He hasn't shown an ability to be particularly good in the minors, but the Rockies don't have any pitching depth so they have him in the majors starting in game three. Milwaukee has lost the first two games of this series, and the Brewers do have a decent lineup. I expect them to put up plenty of runs here. Colorado's offense is really good when healthy. There probably isn't a better back to back combo in the majors than Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. The umpire here is CB Bucknor, and he is a small over umpire in my book. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Sweeper Side* The Baltimore Orioles are looking for a sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays in this one. We're getting a better price than we should based on the numbers of this one. The primary reason for that is likely the fact that bettors are assuming Tampa Bay should win here because they are playing to avoid a sweep. That's certainly extra motivation, but how good is this Tampa Bay team right now? They have an unproven manager working with a questionable roster. Buck Showalter is one of the best in the business, and he gets the most out of this Orioles team. Miguel Gonzalez has an ERA well under 3 at Tampa Bay. The Orioles are 7-3 in Gonzalez's last 10 starts vs. Tampa Bay.Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Boston Red Sox are a much better team than the Philadelphia Phillies. I think the Phillies have a chance to be historically bad this year. Philadelphia's lineup is terrible. The Phillies aren't going to put together big innings many times this year with the batting order they are running out there. Boston has one of the best lineups in baseball. I think the Red Sox will score a bunch of runs this season. Rick Porcello has improved a lot as a pitcher, and he had a nice Spring Training. Aaron Harang had a good year last year, but he's almost 37 and now he's in a hitter-friendly ballpark where he'll serve up more long balls. Mismatch all around here. Take Boston -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* C.J. Wilson isn't the same pitcher he used to be. Wilson was much worse last year than he has been in previous years, and I see no reason to expect a bounce back from him this year. Wilson is 34 years old and he doesn't have the stuff he did a few years ago. On the other hand, James Paxton is well on his way to becoming a star in the big leagues. Paxton has an ERA of under 2 in his career at home. Paxton has been great when healthy, and he is once again healthy to start this season. The Angels are a team I think will take a step back this year compared to last season, and Seattle is on the upswing. Seattle's bullpen is arguably the best in baseball, while the Angels have a weak bullpen. 

Los Angeles is 0-4 in their last 4 road games. They are 0-6 in their last 6 overall. They are 0-7 in Wilson's last 7 starts as a road underdog. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Seattle is 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. They are 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The Mariners are 7-0 in Paxton's last 7 starts during game 2 of a series. They are 4-0 in his last 4 Tuesday starts. The Angels are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. Seattle. A 44-0 angle. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's and Texas Rangers meet Tuesday night in Oakland. Oakland is an interesting team to watch this year, because they really don't have much offense, but the A's have a really deep pitching staff. Jesse Hahn was a nice pickup for Oakland, and I look for him to have a really successful season for the A's. Texas was no hit through seven innings yesterday by Gray. The Rangers lineup isn't bad, but they certainly aren't as good as they were a couple years ago. Colby Lewis has been relatively good in his starts at Oakland in the past. A big key here is the man behind the plate. Umpire Doug Eddings is probably the single best under umpire in the big leagues, and he'll be behind the dish here. The pitchers will get the edges in this one. That's a big boost for this play. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves played to a 2-1 final yesterday. I think games between these two teams will likely be low scoring pretty often this year. Atlanta has one of the worst lineups in the majors now that they have had a fire sale in the offseason. Mat Latos has solid numbers against the guys left for Atlanta, and Latos has been pretty consistent over the course of his career. Alex Wood is a star in the making for the Braves, and Wood looked sharp in Spring Training. These two bullpens are both good, which is important in what should be a close game. 

The under is 4-0-1 in Wood's last 5 during game 2 of a series. The under is 4-0-2 in his last 6 road starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 vs. the NL East. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-1 in the Marlins last 6 home games. A 20-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Corey Kluber won the AL CY Young Award last year. There might be some looking for a step backward from him this year, but I'm not among them. Kluber has electric stuff, and his cutter is one of the best pitches in baseball. Houston's lineup is clearly improving, but they still aren't good enough to consistently hit against one of the best pitchers in the game today. Cleveland has struggled against lefties in the last couple years, and Dallas Keuchel has become a very good pitcher for the Astros. Keuchel is much better at home, and he'll be pitching at home here. Both of these bullpens are improved from last year. I see a low scoring contest. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins are organizations headed in different directions right now. Atlanta has made it abundantly clear that they are rebuilding now. The trade of Craig Kimbrel the day before the season started was a surprise to many. Kimbrel was a really popular player both with the fan base and in the clubhouse, and that trade is likely to have a big negative effect on this team's performance from day one. Miami's Henderson Alvarez has been underrated in the past year, and Alvarez will face a very weak Atlanta lineup. The Braves are going to have trouble putting runs on the board this year. Without their typical advantage in the bullpen, there is no advantage for Atlanta in this game. Miami is too cheap. Take Miami. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cincinnati Reds probably won't be a better team than the Pittsburgh Pirates this year, but I like the matchups in this one. Pittsburgh's Francisco Liriano has really struggled against Cincinnati recently. The Reds lineup is healthy to start this year, and some people are likely undervaluing the Reds offense. With Votto and Bruce both healthy to start this year, the Reds should be able to score some runs. Johnny Cueto's numbers against Pittsburgh are just amazing. How good are they? In 179 innings, Cueto has a career ERA of 2.21 against the Pirates. Johnny Cueto has allowed only two earned runs in his last 3 opening day starts. He has had a home ERA under 2 in his last two years. Too cheap of a price here on the home team. Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Tampa Bay Rays have a brand new look this year, and I'm not sure that is a good thing. Time will tell on the Rays, but I do believe that Baltimore is being underrated by many as they have been the last couple years. Showalter is one of the best managers in the business, and he gets a ton out of these guys. Chris Tillman is on the mound for Baltimore here, and he pitched great against the Rays last year. This year's Rays lineup is a little bit weaker. Baltimore has one of the best bullpens in the majors, while Tampa Bay's is a question mark. Chris Archer is a good starter, but several Orioles hitters have great numbers against him. At this price, I'm taking the dog. Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Colorado Rockies might have the worst opening day starter in the majors. Kyle Kendrick is a below average starter, and the fact that he is their best starter speaks to the problems this Rockies rotation will have in getting outs this year. To make matters even worse for Colorado, their bullpen is absolutely awful as well. Kyle Lohse isn't a bad pitcher, but he also isn't terrific. Lohse is 36 years old, and I think he's due to take a bit of a step back this year. The Rockies can't pitch, but they have a scary good lineup when they are healthy. They are healthy to start the season, and Colorado should pound out plenty of hits here. The over is 15-4-2 in the last 21 meetings between these two teams. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play* The Kansas City Royals have mowed right through the playoffs without losing a single game. Kansas City is a good team and they are playing very well right now, but I think the long break hurts them in this situation. The Royals haven't played since October 15 (six days ago). Kansas City's momentum has been slowed a bit by the long break. Another major factor in this game as well as this series as a whole is the Royals lack of experience in this kind of situation. Kansas City has far more pressure on them now than they have had in any of the previous rounds. While early on in the playoffs it might have felt like they were playing with house money, the prevailing sentiment now is something like "the Royals really need to win this World Series now, because they rarely get an opportunity like this." The pressure is building. The San Francisco Giants are used to this kind of pressure. San Francisco simply knows how to win games in the playoffs. This Giants team doesn't have the most talent of any team in baseball on paper, but they have tons of experience in this spot. San Francisco won the World Series in 2010 and in 2012. Don't overlook the fact that San Francisco has a big managerial edge with Bruce Bochy as their skipper. There isn't a manager in all of baseball I'd rather have leading my team than Bochy. 

Madison Bumgarner starts in Game One, and Bumgarner has been lights out all year on the road. Bumgarner has a 2.22 ERA this year on the road. The Giants are 17-5 in his last 22 road starts. Also, Bumgarner is simply a clutch pitcher. When this team needs him most, Bumgarner brings his best effort. I trust him to do it again here. James Shields starts for the Royals and while he is a solid pitcher, he hasn't been particularly sharp in the playoffs. Shields pitched worse at home than on the road this year as well.

The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 World Series games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 World Series road games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 during Game One of a series. Take San Francisco big! 

*3 Star Orioles/Royals Game 3 CASH* One day later, but the analysis stays the same and the price actually got slightly better here. The Kansas City Royals jumped out to a 2-0 lead by winning both games in Baltimore this past weekend. Kansas City is on a magical ride right now, and I don't think it stops here. The Royals have the best defense in the majors by a large margin, and that defense has been showing up in the most important times of late. Kansas City is winning games with clutch hits and terrific defense, and that is the formula for winning in the postseason. The Royals running game should be big in this game too. While some may see a letdown for the Royals coming at home up 2-0, I see this team staying sharp. Jeremy Guthrie is inconsistent, but he has pitched well down the stretch. Guthrie also has a 2.67 ERA against the Orioles in his career. No one from this Baltimore lineup has hit him well in the past. Wei-Yin Chen looked bad in his last outing, and the Royals have been hitting left-handed pitching very well of late. Chen has a 5.85 ERA in three outings with home plate umpire Joe West. Momentum is important in the playoffs, and the Royals certainly have that. 

The Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 playoff games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. They are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more. They are 4-0 in their last 4 following an off day. The Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. Kansas City. A 24-0 angle. Take Kansas City.

*3 Star Dodgers/Cardinals Game 4 CASH* The Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals meet Tuesday evening in a crucial Game Four contest at St. Louis. Clayton Kershaw will make the start for the Dodgers on three days of rest. Shelby Miller gets the ball for the Cardinals. Kershaw is no doubt the best pitcher in the game today, but the St. Louis Cardinals hitters have done a tremendous job against him the past three seasons. Last year, Kershaw allowed 7 runs on 10 hits in four innings of work as the Cardinals blasted the Dodgers in Game 6 of the NLCS. Kershaw was working on three days of rest in that game. Kershaw was lit up in the 7th inning of Game One by St. Louis earlier this series as well. This Cardinals lineup is starting to string together some big innings. Matt Carpenter is the table setter, and he is seeing the ball better right now than he did at any time during the regular season. The Dodgers lineup has several key hitters scuffling, and the Dodgers bullpen has an ERA of almost 9 in the postseason. Shelby Miller has been up and down so he worries me a bit, but he has a lifetime 2.51 ERA at home. I don't expect Kershaw to get bombed in this one, but I do think this game stays close. The Cardinals know how to win in the postseason, and if you give me +1.5 at just a little more than even money, I have to take it.

The Dodgers are 1-4 in Kershaw's last 5 road starts in St. Louis. The Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a lefty. The Dodgers are 0-5 in their last 5 playoff road games. Take St. Louis +1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Wild Card CASH* The San Francisco Giants hit a speed bump in the middle of the season, but they were a good team for the majority of the year. Madison Bumgarner's consistency has always been something I like to back. Bumgarner is just a very good pitcher, and he is unique in that he is at his best when pitching on the road. Bumgarner has a 2.22 ERA on the road this year. Pittsburgh has been red hot at the end of the season, but I see the Pirates at a real disadvantage in this pitching matchup. Edinson Volquez isn't the team's best pitcher, but he has to go in this one because Liriano and Cole pitched Saturday and Sunday. Volquez has had a nice revival this year, but he still threw in quite a few clunkers throughout the year. He is the total opposite of Bumgarner, Volquez isn't consistent at all. I don't like inconsistent pitchers in general, and I like them even less in the postseason. The Pirates have a very good home field advantage, but this is a good price on a team with a big starting pitching advantage. The Giants also have the better bullpen and the lineups are quite similar in ability.

San Francisco is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NL Central. The Giants are 7-0 in Bumgarner's last 7 as a road favorite. They are 5-0 in his last 5 as a favorite overall. A 17-0 angle. Take the Giants. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Chicago Cubs are playing hard to the end. They don't have a particularly strong team, but they are getting to see some of their impressive young hitters. Jorge Soler looks like a future perennial All-Star, and Baez snapped out of a recent slump last night. I like the fight the Cubs have been showing on a daily basis. On the other hand, Milwaukee looks like a team that has totally given up. Milwaukee led the NL Central for most of the year, but their awful stretch of late has sent them completely out of the playoffs. The Brewers are 8-21 in their last 29. They are 5-11 in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. Milwaukee is undeserving of this big price. Wily Peralta has a 4.10 ERA in his career against the Cubs, including a 5.2 ERA this year. Wada is a good young starter for the Cubs, and the Brewers have struggled with lefties of late.

Chicago is 4-0 in their last 4 games against the Brewers. The Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a lefty. They are 0-4 in Peralta's last 4 during game 2 of a series. A 13-0 angle. Take the Cubs. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Chicago White Sox are completely done this year, and they have no need to win this one. The White Sox start Hector Noesi in this one who is not even close to trustworthy. He'll be followed up by a White Sox bullpen that has been the worst pen in baseball in the past month. Jeremy Guthrie isn't a great starter either, but he has impressive numbers when pitching against the White Sox, especially in Chicago. He has a 2.9 ERA in his career at US Cellular. He'll be backed by what has been the best bullpen in the American League in the second half of the season. Kansas City needs this game in a big way, and they have tons of advantages here.The Royals are 6-0 in Guthrie's last 6 starts as a road favorite. The White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. the AL Central. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers are relishing the role of spoiler at the end of this season. Texas had the worst record in baseball a couple weeks ago, and now they are 12-1 in their last 13 games. The Rangers have some nice young position players who are starting to come through. Nick Tepesch is a guy who pitched well in the minors and the Rangers were high on him. He struggled early this year, but he has been throwing the ball well of late. Scott Kazmir takes the mound for Oakland, and he has been terrible of late. Kazmir has allowed six runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts. He seems to be wearing down. Texas has hit left-handers well all year. The price here is just way too good to pass up.

Texas is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. They are 7-0 in their last 7 home games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 6-0 in their last 6 home games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a left-handed starter. A 28-0 angle. Take Texas as a big underdog. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Anthony Swarzak isn't a good starting pitcher. The Twins have plugged him into a starting spot since they are badly in need of a starter. Swarzak has a 5.83 ERA in his career against Detroit, and the Tigers bats should get after him in a big way in a game that means a whole lot to them. Detroit's lineup is arguably the best in the majors, and they lit him up for 6 runs a couple weeks ago. Rick Porcello has struggled down the stretch. Porcello has given up at least 7 hits in six straight games. The Tigers bullpen isn't any good either, so once they get into the game the Twins will get more scoring opportunities. This total is set too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Kansas City Royals have been a streaky team and I like what I'm seeing out of them the last couple days. Kansas City is getting great starting pitching and this Royals bullpen is the best in the American League right now. If they have a lead going into the 7th they are extremely tough to beat. Cleveland averages just 3.5 runs per game this year against left-handed pitching. The Indians are mathematically eliminated from the AL Central and are virtually eliminated from the AL Wildcard. Cleveland knows they aren't making the playoffs now, and they are likely to be far less motivated than the Royals. Kansas City still has a real shot in the AL Central, and they are live dogs in this spot. Jason Vargas has a sparkling 2.42 ERA on the road this year, and he has a 2.25 ERA in three starts at Cleveland in his career. The team with more motivation and the better pitching staff at plus money here.

Cleveland is 0-7 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Indians are 0-4 in Bauer's last 4 starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. A 23-0 angle. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies meet in a game where both teams have little to play for. Having nothing to play for hasn't stopped Cole Hamels from having an amazing year though. Hamels has been totally dominating for the last few months. For the season, he has a spectacular road ERA of 1.76. Hamels has a career ERA of 2.55 when pitching in Miami (8 starts). Henderson Alvarez is great at home as well. Alvarez has a1.75 ERA at home this year. In his career, Alvarez has a 1.99 ERA against the Phillies (6 starts). Stanton is out of the lineup so the Marlins lineup isn't very good right now. The Phillies have struggled to score all year.

The under is 10-1 in Hamels last 11 games against the Marlins. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts in Miami. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros meet Monday night in Texas. Both of these lineups are awful right now. Texas was putting up a run or two on a nightly basis for a long time before heating up on their west coast swing last week. Nick Tropeano was pretty good in the minors and the Rangers have never seen him before. Derek Holland is pitching lights out since rejoining the Rangers a few weeks ago. Holland has elite stuff. The Astros lineup was weak early this year, and it's much weaker now due to injuries. The temperatures have cooled off in Texas so the ball won't fly nearly as well. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays are out of the playoff chase. There's nothing left to play for in Toronto, and I can't imagine them putting too much effort into the remaining games on their schedule. J.A. Happ is inconsistent and once he leaves the game the bullpen is one of the worst in the league. Seattle has one of the very best bullpens in the majors. James Paxton is a very good left-handed pitcher. Toronto has been better of late against right-handed pitching. Seattle has everything to play for while the Blue Jays are ready to be finished for the year.

The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last 6 as an underdog. They are 0-6 in their last vs. the AL West. They are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. The Mariners are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL East. Seattle is 7-0 in their last 7 when Paxton pitches following a team loss. The Mariners are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 33-0 angle. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Detroit Tigers have won the first two games in this crucial three-game set. They'll go for the sweep here. Detroit already swept Kansas City in Kansas City once this year. Rick Porcello has pitched very well at Kaufmann Stadium in his career. Jeremy Guthrie has really struggled with this Tigers lineup in his career. Porcello is an underrated pitcher who has been good most of this year. I really like the Tigers experience edge in this series. Detroit is used to playing in spots like this, while the Royals aren't used to it at all. The Tigers are 6-1 in Porcello's last 7 road starts against Kansas City. The Royals are a streaky team, and they are slumping right now. The price is cheaper because the books know they'll get some money from bettors who want to back the anti-sweep side. In my opinion, that makes the Tigers cheap here. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies meet Saturday afternoon at Coors Field. Day games at Coors Field have been notorious for high scoring affairs for a very long time. The ball travels extremely well here during the day. Trevor Cahill has been struggling in his last few starts. He has a 6.59 ERA in his last 3 outings. This isn't the place you want to go when you are struggling. Eddie Butler starts for the Rockies and while he has some potential in the long run, his minor league numbers suggest he isn't ready for the big leagues just yet. Take a look at the recent scores between these two teams when they meet at Coors Field. In the last four meetings, the scores have been 16-8, 12-7, 7-6, and 15-3. A total of 11 looks very scary on the surface, but these teams have been doing it consistently. The Rockies have the worst pen in the league, and Arizona is 23rd out of 30 teams. When the bullpens come into the game, there will be even more scoring opportunities. 

The over is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 vs. the NL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The St. Louis Cardinals have been finishing strong every single year over the last few seasons. This is a team that is built for September and October baseball. The Cardinals have let me down a lot this year, and they haven't been as good as I expected. Still, this team is clearly rounding into form right now, and one of the main reasons is the work of the pitcher on the hill for them today. Shelby Miller has been up and down this year, but he's been amazing of late. Miller's last five starts have been nothing short of excellent. Even more impressive, Miller has a career ERA of 2.30 in 7 starts against Milwaukee. The Brewers are falling apart down the stretch and they start Kyle Lohse. Lohse has been awful of late, and in his career he has made 12 starts against the Cardinals and has a 5.12 ERA. 

The Brewers are 1-9 in their last 10 road games. The Brewers are 0-4 in Lohse's last 4 after a quality start last game. The Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 in Miller's 7 starts against the Brewers. A 20-1 angle. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Pittsburgh Pirates are red hot at the right time of the year. The offense has improved a great deal late in the year. Josh Harrison is the single biggest reason why. Now Andrew McCutchen doesn't have to be the only main man coming through with clutch hits on this roster. The Pirates bullpen let them down earlier this year, but they are coming through again down the stretch. Gerrit Cole is a high quality starter, and he'll face a weak Red Sox lineup. David Ortiz may miss this game again, and Pedroia is out for sure. Boston has nothing to play for and the Pirates have a lot to play for. Brandon Workman is on the mound for the Red Sox. He has started 14 games this year for Boston. The Red Sox have lost 10 of those 14 games by at least two runs. That's a pretty amazing statistic. With a weakened Red Sox lineup, I think the Pirates have a very good chance of winning by two or more here. Take Pittsburgh -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres are both bad teams this year, but I see a huge pitching advantage for the visiting Phillies and that's why I'm suggesting a play on the Phillies moneyline. Cole Hamels has been great all year. Hamels has an ERA well under 2 on the road. Hamels is from San Diego, so he'll be pitching in front of the hometown crowd. He has been awesome in the past in San Diego with a 1.85 ERA in seven career starts. Eric Stults is a below average pitcher, and the Padres have had tons of trouble winning games that he starts.

The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. They are 5-0 in Hamels' last 5 starts at San Diego. They are 7-0 in his last 7 starts overall vs. San Diego. The Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 games during game 3 of a series. They are 1-12 in Stults' last 13 starts during game 3 of a series. A 33-1 angle. Take Philadelphia. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Kerwin Danley is behind the dish in this one and the under is 39-9-3 in his last 51 behind the plate. The Oakland A's are in a horrible slump right now. Oakland is fighting hard to even find their way to the playoffs after dominating the AL West for the majority of the year. Oakland's offense has been the primary problem. Derek Holland pitches for the Texas Rangers in this one, and he's been great against Oakland in his career. Holland has been amazing in his only 3 outings of the year this year since returning from an injury. Jeff Samardzija has been very good all year, and the Texas Rangers offense is terrible right now. I see a very low scoring game here.

The under is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 road games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0-2 in Holland's last 7 games as an underdog. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 as a road dog. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 6-0 in Danley's last 6 Wednesday games behind the plate. A 25-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals clinched the NL East and partied last night. It's typically dangerous to back a team the night after they clinch. The Braves offense has been horrible of late, but their past history is great against Gio Gonzalez. He may be the guy to get their offense going again, at least for the night. In fact, Atlanta has won eight straight games when Gonzalez has started against them. Alex Wood is throwing the ball extremely well right now, and the Nationals are likely to sit a couple good players for this game. Look for Atlanta to bounce back after two losses to start this series with a win here. Take Atlanta. 

*4 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Pittsburgh Pirates are closing the season playing terrific baseball. Francisco Liriano has pitched a shutout in his last two starts. He'll face a Boston Red Sox lineup that will be without Pedroia and probably without Ortiz as well. Boston has packed it in for the season and they are ready to be done. Pittsburgh is still fighting to catch St. Louis in the division, and they are in position for a Wildcard berth at least right now. Clay Buchholz is hit or miss, and the Pirates lineup has really stepped up of late. The run line is very cheap here. I like Pittsburgh's chances to win big in this matchup. Take Pittsburgh -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT Total* Jake Peavy and Josh Collmenter have both been dealing of late. Peavy has a 2.29 ERA since joining the Giants, and he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last seven starts. Collmenter has a 0.93 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 3.31 ERA against San Francisco in his career, and his ERA against them this year is 1.00. Collmenter has been much better at home this year as well. Both of these pitchers are fully capable of putting up a bunch of zeros. Arizona's lineup is extremely weak right now, and Morse and Pagan are both questionable for the Giants. Look for solid outings from both starters in this one. Take the under. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Month* The Detroit Tigers have arguably the best offense in baseball. Ricky Nolasco has had a horrible season, and he has been struggling a lot down the stretch. For the year, Nolasco has a 5.64 ERA. The Tigers offense has been hot of late, scoring at least 6 runs in five of their last eight games. I see the Tigers getting to Nolasco early in this game. Minnesota's offense has been far better at home than on the road this year. The over is 42-28 in the Twins home games this season. Rick Porcello has been giving up loads of hits of late,  and he isn't working as deep in games. The Tigers bullpen is atrocious, and the Twins have torched them all year. The sooner the Tigers bullpen gets into this game, the more likely it is that we see a very high scoring game. Both teams should have lots of chances with runners on base in this contest. A total set this low in a battle between these teams makes no sense to me. 

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 as a road favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 on grass. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a righty. The over is 7-0 in the Twins last 7 home games vs. a righty. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 as a home underdog. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 during game two of a series. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 7-0 in Nolasco's last 7 home starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The over is 5-0 in Nolasco's last 5 following a quality start. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two in Minnesota. A 73-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* The Baltimore Orioles are a terrific team, but I think they are a candidate for a team that might start coasting right now. They have a massive lead in the division, and they are unlikely to catch the Angels for the best record in the American League. It appears they are locked into their playoff spot. Toronto is fighting hard to keep touch in the AL Wildcard. The Blue Jays lineup has gotten much healthier of late, and they are producing at a much higher rate again. Drew Hutchison is as streaky of a pitcher as you will ever find, but his stats against the Orioles are nothing short of amazing. In six career starts against Baltimore, Hutchison has an ERA of just 1.13! He'll be up against Ubaldo Jimenez here, and his home ERA is north of 5.5 this year. The Blue Jays have a lot more to gain, and they have a pitching advantage. Take Toronto. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Atlanta Braves hopes of making a run at the NL Wildcard are getting more and more remote, but this is a team that plays well at home and they still have a slight chance. They have been great against Washington at home in the past couple years. As good of a pitcher as Stephen Strasburg is, he has really struggled against Atlanta. Strasburg has a 6.99 ERA in seven career starts in Atlanta. Ervin Santana has been awesome at home this year for the Braves. Now that they are getting healthy, the Braves bullpen is once again one of the best in the majors. The Braves as an underdog against a pitcher they have hit hard in the past is too much for me to pass up. 

The Braves are 8-0 in Santana's last 8 home starts. The Braves are 5-0 in Santana's last 5 starts during game one of a series. The Nationals are 0-4 in Strasburg's last 4 during game one of a series. Washington is 0-4 in Strasburg's last 4 starts vs. the Braves. A 21-0 angle. Take Atlanta. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics are in the middle of a race for an AL Wildcard spot. Both of these teams have the same strengths and weaknesses. They both have a very good starting rotation and an excellent bullpen. They also both have suspect offenses that have been particularly bad of late. Chris Young is a totally different pitcher at home, and Jon Lester is a big game pitcher who is throwing it well right now. I was very surprised to see 7 as the line on this game. This is in a pitcher's park and it's a crucial game for both teams. 

The under is 4-0 in the A's last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on the road. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game three of a series. The under is 3-0-1 in Lester's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0-1 in the Mariners last 7 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. the AL West. The under is 7-0 in the Mariners last 7 games when Young pitches as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0 in Young's last 4 starts vs. the A's. A 51-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Milwaukee Brewers offense has been struggling in a big way of late. That's the primary reason this team has been floundering down the stretch. Milwaukee needs to win these games, but the offense isn't performing well under the pressure. The Cincinnati Reds offense has been poor ever since Joey Votto went down with an injury. Jay Bruce is slumping and Devin Mesoraco is cooling off a bit as well. Mike Leake and Matt Garza are both quality pitchers who can get the job done. The home plate umpire here is a solid strike caller which helps as well. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians are playing a key series this weekend. Detroit's Justin Verlander starts this one. Verlander has been struggling in a big way over the past couple months. In his career, the Indians have hit Verlander better than just about any other team in the league, and now that he is already pitching poorly, I expect Cleveland to hit him well this game. Trevor Bauer has some poor history against the Tigers as well. Bauer allows too many base runners, and teams like the Tigers will typically make you pay for that kind of thing. 

The over is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 as a home favorite. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Bauer's last 4 starts vs. the Tigers. The over is 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 with HP umpire Layne behind the dish. A 27-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Oakland A's are in a major swoon right now. Oakland is an awful 4-23 in their last 27 games as an underdog. This is a team that could miss the playoffs after having the best record in the majors for the majority of the year. They are a big underdog here because they are up against Felix Hernandez. King Felix has awesome numbers (2.58 career ERA in 34 starts) against Oakland. This Oakland lineup is struggling in a big way now, and I don't see them turning it around against Hernandez. Sonny Gray has normally been very good against the Mariners, but Gray is wearing down in a big way of late. In his last 7 games he has allowed 6 hits or more in every game except one (the weak White Sox lineup). The Mariners got to him for 6 runs last time around. I think Gray is hitting a wall after pitching far more than he ever has before. While I'd prefer to have the moneyline here, at -155 or higher I can't justify taking it. I recommend taking a chance on the run line at this large underdog price. Take Seattle -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners and Oakland A's meet in a really important series for both teams. Oakland was coasting in this division not that long ago, and now they are 10 games behind the Angels and needing to hang onto a Wildcard spot. Oakland could still miss the playoffs altogether unless they get it turned around. The A's have their offense to blame. The offense has been terrible of late. Paxton is a very underrated pitcher for the Mariners, and I expect him to keep this offense quiet. Jason Hammel is a streaky pitcher, but he's been throwing it well of late. Seattle's offense has struggled the majority of the year. A big ballpark and two struggling offenses along with two elite bullpens. I like this to be a low scoring contest. Take the under.