*4 Star MLB Friday's BEST Bet* The Cincinnati Reds may have started the year out surprisingly well, but they aren't a good team. Cincinnati has a subpar lineup and a terrible bullpen. The starting rotation has some talented youngsters in it, but I don't see Tim Melville as one of those guys.

Melville's line looks okay from his Major League debut against Pittsburgh last week, but I watched that game and Melville has major command issues. He was helped by Pittsburgh being undisciplined in big at bats and he managed to get out of big jams every inning. Melville won't always get that lucky, and he's up against a good St. Louis team here that has a pretty good lineup.

Carlos Martinez is a quality starter. The Reds have two starters dinged up in Cozart and Mesoraco. Cincinnati is unlikely to get many runs here. 

Cincinnati has been totally dominated by St. Louis for the past few years. The Reds are 21-51 in their last 72 at St. Louis. The Reds are also an awful 38-83 in their last 121 road games. I won't lay more than -150 in Major League Baseball, so the run line is my play here. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Situational Spot Play* The Detroit Tigers had a series in Pittsburgh that concluded on Thursday. They now travel all the way to Houston to take on the Astros. The Astros have been scuffling of late, while the Tigers are scorching hot. 

Why is this a good situational play on the Astros? Dallas Keuchel is the team's stopper, and he starts here against Mike Pelfrey who is definitely the Tigers worst starter. In fact, there aren't many starters in the majors worse than Pelfrey. On the other hand, there aren't many pitchers in the majors better than Keuchel. 

The Tigers lineup is scary good, but Keuchel shut down everyone at home last year. Detroit's bullpen is much weaker than Houston's as well. Houston bounces back with Keuchel on the hill. Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles aren't as good as they have looked early in the season. Baltimore does have a good lineup, but their rotation is a major problem. Chris Tillman is the ace for the Orioles, and he isn't very good. Tillman is an inconsistent starter who should struggle with a pretty good Texas lineup. 

On the other side, Cole Hamels is starting for the Texas Rangers. Hamels has been remarkably consistent for Texas since coming to town. Though this is undoubtedly a park that is unkind to pitchers overall, Hamels has pitched very well in Texas. Hamels is a guy I feel like I know what I'm getting from, and that's definitely crucial.

The Rangers are 7-0 in Hamels' last 7 home starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game one of a series. They are 12-0 in his last 12 starts on grass. Baltimore is 0-4 in their last 4 games in Texas. A 27-0 angle. Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller has been the single most reliable under umpire for me in the past few seasons. Miller has a massive strike zone that pitchers love and hitters constantly get frustrated by. This one is a get away day game in the early afternoon. It's likely that some of the better hitters will sit this game out. That combined with the strong under umpire here makes this one a play for me.

Wily Peralta is a wild card. Peralta has pitched well in day games in the past though, and he has Miller behind the dish here. Jaime Garcia has been brilliant at home throughout his career, and he has been amazing against Milwaukee as well. Garcia has a 2.90 ERA in more than 100 career innings against Milwaukee. He has a 2.70 ERA in his career at home.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays offense isn't impressive. Tampa Bay is going to be shutdown by good pitchers a lot this year. I believe Danny Salazar is on the verge of breaking out and becoming an excellent starter. He has all the necessary tools. Salazar dominated Tampa Bay on the road last year, and I think he'll pitch well again here.

Chris Archer's career numbers against Cleveland aren't very good, but those are misleading. None of those starts came last year when Archer took it to the next level. Also, one terrible start skewed his numbers against the Tribe, and that was in his rookie season. Archer is definitely one of the best pitchers in the American League, and he's been at his best early in the season over the course of his career.

Mike Winters is a bit of an under umpire, so that's a nice boost, and this one is a get away day game, which means some solid hitters may be sitting this game out. 

The under is 4-0-2 in the Rays last 6 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. The under is 3-0-2 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0-1 in Salazar's last 6 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 on turf. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* These two offenses are really hitting the ball well in this series so far, and I see plenty of reason to believe that will continue in the series finale. Ubaldo Jimenez has a career 5.90 ERA at Fenway Park. Jimenez has a poor 4.69 ERA in April in his career as well, so he is a slow starter.

Joe Kelly has a career 4.65 ERA in the first half of the season (it is 3.48 in the second half), and the Red Sox starter has had serious problems against Baltimore. Kelly started three games against Baltimore last year, and he had a 7.71 ERA in those games. 

Big innings are always very possible with these two lineups, and these two starting pitchers have been victimized by those huge innings frequently in the past. 

The over is 3-0-1 in the Orioles last 4 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in the Red Sox last 5 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The over is 8-0 in Kelly's last 8 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL East. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in Kelly's last 6 starts after the Red Sox allowed 5 runs or more last game. A 31-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Yankees cashed as a small underdog for me yesterday. I'm back on the Yankees ML for Wednesday night. This one is a smaller play, but I still do like the value here. Michael Pineda has an ERA of 1.50 in his last three starts at Toronto. Pineda is coming off a rare bad start in his first game of the year. Pineda is a first half pitcher who has excelled in April in the past. While this Toronto lineup is excellent, Pineda has the stuff to bounce back.

J.A. Happ isn't a bad pitcher, but this Yankees lineup is one of the better lineups in the majors, and I expect them to create plenty of scoring chances. The Yankees bullpen gives them a big advantage if the game is close late. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Washington Nationals start Stephen Strasburg here. While some consider Strasburg a big disappointment, it's important to remember he is only 27 years old and his stuff is elite. As his command improves, I think he can still turn into a very good starter with improved consistency. 

The Atlanta Braves are a terrible baseball team this year. Atlanta's offense is among the worst in the majors, and there is no single area of this team that is any good. Matt Wisler has had some nice starts at home in his career, but his career road ERA is 6.75 (11 games). Wisler has pitched in three games in Washington against the Nationals and he's allowed a whopping 13 runs in 7 and 2/3 innings. 

The Braves are 11-43 in their last 54 road games. Take Washington -1.5 here. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night. Derek Holland had three bad outings against Seattle last year. Before that, he had been dominant against Seattle. Holland has quality stuff, and he has been lights out when pitching in Seattle. Holland has a career 2.39 ERA in Seattle. 

Wade Miley seems like a nice fit for Safeco. Miley is a fly ball pitcher and that's a good thing in a place with a big outfield like this one. Boston's Fenway Park hurt Miley last year, and he should fare much better in Seattle. 

The Rangers lineup is badly banged up right now, and Seattle's lineup is good in the middle, but it isn't very deep.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here, and no umpire has a bigger strike zone than Eddings. 

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees have Masahiro Tanaka on the mound for this one. Tanaka has faced Toronto 7 times in his career thus far, and he has a brilliant 2.23 ERA in those games. Very few pitchers are going to put up those types of numbers up against this stellar Toronto offense, but Tanaka has great raw stuff.

New York has a very good lineup as well, and they'll face Aaron Sanchez here. While Sanchez has good stuff also, his command is a much bigger question mark. Sanchez shut down Tampa Bay in the opener, but shutting down Tampa is one thing, and shutting down New York should prove much tougher. 

The Yankees bullpen gives them a clear advantage as well. At plus money, I have to side with the Yankees. The Yankees are 5-2 in Tanaka's last 7 starts vs. Toronto. Take New York. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers offense is going to score a lot of runs this year. A top five of Kinsler, Upton, Cabrera, Martinez, and Martinez is tremendous.

Pittsburgh's offense is an underrated offense. Obviously Andrew McCutchen is great, but Marte and Polanco are quickly turning into stars as well. The Pirates lineup is a very deep one.

Juan Nicasio has looked good this year so far, but facing this Tigers lineup is a very stiff test. I don't think he'll fare very well here. Anibal Sanchez isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago. The Pirates lineup will test him throughout.

The over is 8-0 in the Tigers last 8 vs. the NL Central. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games. The over is 5-0 in Sanchez's last 5 home starts. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 34-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB Moneyline TOP Play of Week* The Kansas City Royals start Chris Young in this one and he's on my fade list, especially on the road. Young is a massive fly ball pitcher, and Houston has a bunch of home run hitters. This is a difficult matchup for Young.

Collin McHugh's numbers were down just a touch last year, but he has been very solid overall. McHugh does a great job keeping the ball on the ground, and this Astros defense is getting much better behind him.

Houston is playing their home opener here, while Kansas City is playing their first road game of the year. The Royals came from behind to get past Houston in the playoffs last year, and there is definitely some revenge on the minds of Houston in this game.

Houston is 46-20 in their last 66 home games. Kansas City is 1-4 in their last 5 games in Houston. Houston is 18-4 in McHugh's last 22 home starts. They are 9-0 in his last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Houston big. MLB Moneyline TOP Play of Week.

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves start Bud Norris in this one. Norris started against Washington at home last week and allowed 3 runs in a solid start. Norris is a much better pitcher at home though than on the road. Norris has a 3.68 ERA at home in his career and 5.29 ERA on the road. Additionally, Norris' worst month of the season has historically been April.

Max Scherzer has amazing stuff, and this Braves lineup is a mess. Inciarte was one of their better players, and he already went down with an injury. The Braves bullpen is terrible, and they lost another key guy yesterday to injury. 

Atlanta is 11-41 in their last 52 road games. They are 2-14 in their last 16 at Washington. I think Scherzer dominates and the Nationals win comfortably. Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cubs and Diamondbacks play their series finale on Sunday afternoon. Chase Field is a great hitters park with the roof open, but that advantage for the hitters goes away when the roof closes. The roof will be closed for this game.

Jake Arrieta's run in the last couple months of the season last year was epic. Arrieta was truly out of this world good during that run. He started right where he left off with an amazing first start this year. Arrieta's cutter is tremendous, and his command of all of his pitches is a big strength. The Diamondbacks lineup has a career .185 average against Arrieta.

Shelby Miller had a bad first outing, but that was with the roof open, and Miller was excellent last season. The Cubs lost a key bat in Schwarber when he went down earlier this week. Chicago's offense will still be very good, but I think Miller's raw stuff should slow them down a bit.

The under is 10-0-2 in Arrieta's last 12 Sunday starts. The under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 Sunday games. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The St. Louis Cardinals start Adam Wainwright in this one. Wainwright pitched well in his first start of the year. He is coming back from an injury, but Wainwright is going up against one of the worst offenses in baseball here. Atlanta is going to be terrible this season.

Williams Perez is a youngster with a very low upside. Perez pitches to contact far more than I like to see. Perez has a career 5.06 ERA at home. He also has an awful 8.44 ERA in day games. This one is a day game.

The Cardinals were beaten up in Pittsburgh, but they are a much better team than Atlanta. The only thing limiting the size of this play is the question about Wainwright as he eases back from an injury. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jeff Locke starts for the Pirates here. Locke is a below average starter. He can log some innings, but his stuff just isn't very good. He struggles to put guys away. 

Tim Melville makes his major league debut on Sunday for the Reds. Melville hasn't been a major prospect in the past, and I'm not very high on his chances of shutting down an above average offense like Pittsburgh's in his first start.

Joe West is the umpire in this one, and that helps this play a lot. West is an umpire that likes to shrink the strike zone and tick off the pitchers. West should frustrate both guys, and I see him being a tough umpire for a new starter like Melville to draw in their debut.

Look for both teams to get a lot of runners on base. As long as they can cash in a decent amount of chances, this one should go over.

The over is 5-0-1 in Locke's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in the Reds last 6 home games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0-1 in West's last 5 Sunday games behind home plate. A 15-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST BET* The Texas Rangers have the much deeper lineup here, and they also have the more consistent starting pitcher. Cole Hamels has been amazing against the Angels in his career. This Angels lineup has a career average of .147 against him. 

Los Angeles is getting too much respect from the oddsmakers in the early going this year. This isn't the same Angels team from the past. Mike Trout is a tremendous player, but the team overall isn't good. Texas isn't an elite team, but they are certainly better than the Angels right now.

With the better pitcher and the much better lineup, I'm glad to grab the plus money price. 

The Rangers are 11-0 in Hamels' last 11 starts on grass. The Rangers are 8-0 in Hamels' last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rangers are 7-0 in his last 7 starts vs. the AL West. The Rangers are 7-0 in his last 7 starts when they scored 5 runs or more last game. A 33-0 angle. Take Texas. 

*4 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The San Diego Padres offense didn't score a run in three home games against the Dodgers to start the season. They put up 13 yesterday against Colorado. I had a strong lean on the Padres ML in that game and passed, and I'm not going to pass them up a second time in a row. This is a game that I believe should be lined at -110 on both sides. We are getting too much value here. 

Jorge De La Rosa has been hit very hard by this Padres lineup in recent years. Drew Pomeranz was better last year, and he has added a fourth pitch. Pomeranz has a lot of potential. 

Colorado isn't a good team, and they shouldn't be laying this kind of a price. Grab the underdog. Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet on Saturday night. The weather here is a big part of the equation. The wind will be blowing in from center at 20-25 mph through this game. This is a pitcher's park to start with, and with that kind of wind it will be tough on the hitters.

Bartolo Colon has a good history against the Phillies, and this Phillies lineup is a mess outside of a couple guys. Maikel Franco is questionable for this one with an injury, and he is their biggest hitting star. 

Vincent Velasquez is going to be a very good big league pitcher. He has tremendous stuff and I give him a good chance to pitch well here. The Mets offense is solid, but they aren't spectacular.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in baseball. He has been the single best under umpire for me in the past five years. Miller has a huge strike zone and he loves to ring people up. 

Chris Sale is one of the top five most dominant pitchers in the game, and he should fare very well with Miller behind the dish. The Indians start Cody Anderson. Anderson is only mediocre, but I'm not convinced the White Sox offense is all that good.

The weather here will be helpful with a slight wind blowing in and chilly temperatures. US Cellular can be a very good hitter park in the summer when the ball is carrying, but that won't be the case here.

With Miller behind the plate, I like this to be a very low scoring game. The under is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings in Chicago between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* C.C. Sabathia and Mike Pelfrey start for the Yankees and Tigers in this game. Sabathia's worst month of the year in his career has been April, and it isn't even close. Pelfrey's second worst month of the year is April. We have two slow starters in this one.

I took the over in Friday's game between these two and was burned when the Yankees sat just about everyone and then couldn't score a run. They should be able to put up runs just fine against Pelfrey and a poor bullpen here. Detroit is excellent against left handed pitching and Sabathia is certainly in decline. 

Cold weather actually hasn't been bad for overs in the past 10 years. The wind will be blowing out at 20 mph in this one. Both offenses are stacked. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Friday Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the second game of this series. 

Matt Cain isn't the same pitcher he used to be. Last year, he had an ERA of 5.20 at AT&T Park, which is obviously a pitcher-friendly park. Cain will face a very good Dodgers lineup here, and I don't think he'll fare very well. Cain had a 7.71 ERA in Spring Training this year. 

At the same time, this Giants lineup is much improved. They have some young talent in Panik and Belt, and those guys are coming into their own. Hunter Pence is healthy and swinging the bat very well. They'll be up against Ross Stripling, who will be making his MLB debut here. Stripling has never faced anyone above Double A, and his stuff is average. This is a tough spot for him.

Two very good offenses and two big question marks starting on the mound. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs lit up the scoreboard last night, and I like the chances of this being a high scoring game as well. Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open and the roof is listed as being open. I waited until the official word came from the Diamondbacks on the status of the roof for making this pick. The ball flies much better at Chase Field with an open roof.

The Cubs lineup is absolutely stacked. Ray is nothing more than an average pitcher. The DBacks bullpen is below average right now. Jason Hammel isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't a guy who will completely shutdown many offenses. 

The over is 7-1 in Hammel's last 8 starts. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two. Take the over. 

*3 Star TGIF MLB Early Money* The Detroit Tigers and the New York Yankees have two of the best lineups in baseball. Both of these teams are going to score a lot of runs this year. 

This is Detroit's home opener. The weather is going to be nasty for this one. The high here is expected to be 39 degrees. You might think that would be bad for scoring, but that's not what the numbers say. Since 2005, the over has gone 59-47 in MLB games with a temperature of 40 degrees or lower. 

Severino pitched great last year for the Yankees, but he is still an inconsistent youngster. He had some batted ball luck last year that will tough to replicate. On the other side, Jordan Zimmermann steps out of the weak NL East and into the American League, where he'll face much deeper lineups. I like Zimmermann overall, but his upside is far more limited this year in my opinion.

The over is 6-1 in the Tigers last 7 following an off day. Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Dodgers/Giants Rivalry CASH* The San Francisco Giants took 2 of 3 from Milwaukee and the Los Angeles Dodgers swept a three game series with San Diego to start the season. 

Los Angeles shutout the Padres in the entire series. The Dodgers pitching is good, but that was primarily about the Padres hitting being downright awful. Things will be a lot more difficult for them against an improved Giants lineup. 

Brandon Belt is coming into his own and Hunter Pence is healthy. The Giants have a lot more protection for Buster Posey than they have had in the past. 

Jake Peavy has held Dodgers hitters to a terrible .181 average in his career. This Dodgers offense is a good one, but the Dodgers have struggled badly to score at San Francisco in the past couple years. 

The first three wins came a little too easy for the Dodgers, and I'll fade them in San Francisco where the Giants have taken 8 of the last 10 games between these rivals. Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves offense will be one of the worst in baseball this year. The Washington offense is good, but they aren't elite. Washington has an elite pitching staff. The Nationals rotation and bullpen are top notch. 

Stephen Strasburg hasn't been what some hyped him up to being a few years ago, but his peripheral stats aren't bad either. Strasburg has swing and miss type stuff, and the Braves have a lot of free swingers in this lineup. 

Bud Norris starts for Atlanta and he should benefit from moving to a pitcher-friendly park this year.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and the under is a stunning 194-138 since 2005 in Kulpa's games behind the plate. He consistently has a huge strike zone and that is a big help in this one.

The under is 7-0-1 in the Nats last 8 games. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following an off day. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. the NL East. The under is 6-0 in Strasburg's last 6 road starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0-1 in the Braves last 7 games. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Atlanta. The under is 5-0 in Kulpa's last 5 games involving the Braves. A 64-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The St. Louis Cardinals narrowly lost in extra innings to Pittsburgh yesterday. St. Louis looks to avoid the sweep in this series on Wednesday night. 

Mike Leake was a nice pickup for the Cardinals in the offseason. Leake is a quality pitcher who has pitched very well on the road in the past. Leake has made 13 starts at PNC Park and has an impressive 2.46 ERA. He had a nice Spring Training, and I see him having a solid season.

Juan Nicasio is the starter for Pittsburgh. Nicasio didn't give up an earned run throughout Spring Training, but this is a case where I'm going to doubt these numbers until I see them in the regular season. Nicasio will likely be a decent pitcher for Pittsburgh, but I think he's overpriced based on the strong Spring. 

At this plus money price, I'll take the Cardinals trying to get their first win of the regular season. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners square off in a series finale in Arlington on Wednesday afternoon. I had Seattle in the first game of this series and that was a brutal loss as the Rangers won 3-2 despite only getting one hit all game. Seattle bounced back and thumped Texas 10-2 on Tuesday. 

Colby Lewis has been a terrible pitcher in Arlington for quite some time. Lewis has an ERA of 5.50 at home in his last two seasons. He also has an ERA of 5.34 in day games. Seattle should get plenty of scoring chances here. Wade Miley has been inconsistent and this Rangers lineup is pretty solid from top to bottom, especially against lefties. 

The Seattle bullpen is decent, but the Texas bullpen is awful. The wind is blowing out at 20 mph, which is key in this park. 

The over is 38-15-3 in Lewis' last 56 home starts. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* Scott Kazmir was roughed up in Spring Training this year. I'm not one who puts too much stock in Spring Training overall, but Kazmir's velocity was way down and that isn't a good sign. The Padres offense isn't all that good, but they should get some scoring chances against Kazmir if his velocity continues to be down.

James Shields is likely past the peak of his career. Shields gives up too many baserunners for me to like him too much. The Dodgers offense showed last night what they are capable of, and Shields hasn't been very good at PetCo Park in his time with the Padres.

This is an extremely low posted total. The changes at PetCo have made it less of a pitcher's park than in the past, and these two pitchers are hardly Kershaw and Bumgarner. A 3-3 game ensures a win with a total of only 6.5. 

The over is 12-3-1 in Shields' last 16 home starts. Take the over here. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies meet at Chase Field on Tuesday night. Chase Field is one of the very best parks for hitters when the roof is open, and the roof is projected to be open for this one with nice weather in Arizona right now. 

The Colorado Rockies should have some high scoring games this year when you factor in their strong lineup and terrible pitching. Colorado has a poor rotation and a ridiculously bad bullpen as well. 

Both teams have several power hitters and the ball should fly very well at Chase Field in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Value Play* Noah Syndergaard is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He has very good command of all of his pitches, and he has a tremendous upside. Chris Young is 36 years old and is on the downside of his career. Young is a pure fly ball pitcher who gives up quite a few home runs. The wind for this game is expected to be 25 to 30 mph out to left center field. That's not good for a guy like Chris Young. Solid price on the Mets. Take New York. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Sam Holbrook has been the #1 best bet for over bettors as far as MLB umpires are concerned in the last 5 years. The over is 172 and 132 in his games. Holbrook will make the pitchers put it down the heart of the plate a lot more than most guys will. Combine that with the fact that the wind is expected to be blowing out at 25 to 30 mph during the game, and this number is too low. 

Chris Young is a fly ball pitcher and Syndergaard has been less dominant on the road. 

The over is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0-1 in Syndergaard's last 7 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Royals last 4 following a win. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays were the single best team in the majors last year against left handed pitching. They are going to be amazing against lefties again this year. While I think Drew Smyly is a decent pitcher, he'll likely have a hard time shutting down this offense. 

R.A. Dickey hasn't been good at Tampa Bay in recent years. Dickey had a 5.00 ERA in 3 starts at Tampa Bay in 2014. In 2015, Dickey had an even worse ERA of 7.71 in two starts. He is at his worst in April and doesn't like the conditions at the dome in Tampa. 

The over is 7-0-1 in the Rays last 8 games during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0-1 in Dickey's last 5 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rays last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 4-0-3 in the last 7 games between these teams. A 22-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best offenses in baseball. They also have a very poor starting rotation led by Chris Tillman. Tillman shouldn't be an ace, but the Orioles have made him one by default since they are so thin and Kevin Gausman is injured. 

Minnesota overachieved last year, and the Twins have a terrible rotation and bullpen. Ervin Santana definitely doesn't have the stuff to be an ace at this point in his career. The Twins bullpen should be one of the worst in the majors this year.

Both offenses should see a bunch of scoring opportunities in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline Best Bet* The Seattle Mariners send Felix Hernandez to the mound on Opening Day. That's been a winning formula in the past. Hernandez is a whopping 6-0 with a 1.49 ERA on Opening Day in his career. He isn't afraid of the big moments, and in Major League Baseball Opening Day is always a big deal. 

Texas has a good lineup, and they usually crush the ball at home, but Hernandez has a nice history in Texas. Cole Hamels has been a notoriously slow starter throughout the course of his career, saving his best work for the end of the regular season and the postseason. 

Seattle has a huge bullpen advantage here, which could be crucial. 

The Mariners are 5-0 in Hernandez's last 5 starts vs. Texas. Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers and the San Francisco Giants meet on Monday afternoon. Madison Bumgarner is obviously the ace for the Giants, and Bumgarner has sparkling numbers against Milwaukee. In 8 career starts against Milwaukee, he has a 1.96 ERA. At Miller Park, Bumgarner has a 1.66 ERA in 3 career starts. Bumgarner is one of the best in the game, and this Brewers lineup isn't very good.

Wily Peralta isn't a true ace. Essentially, Milwaukee has him here because they have no other option. Peralta is inconsistent and he has been at his worst in the opening month of the season in his career. Giants hitters have a .432 on base percentage against him, so they have really done some major damage against him in the past.

This one is a mismatch all around. Take San Francisco -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Opening Sunday MONEYMAKER* The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates get things underway for this year's MLB action. Adam Wainwright hasn't pitched in a regular season game since last April. He struggled in Spring Training. Pittsburgh has hit him better than just about any other team in the majors. The Pirates expected starting lineup here has a .308 average all time against Wainwright.Francisco Liriano is a good pitcher, but he isn't a top of the league type of game. Liriano has had trouble against the Cardinals as well. St Louis hitters have a .343 on base percentage against Liriano.Both of these offenses are pretty good. These pitchers are quality pitchers, but there are real question marks on both here, and the total is only 6 runs.

The over is 15-4-5 in Wainwright's last 24 starts against Pittsburgh. The over is 12-3-1 in Liriano's last 16 home starts. Take the over.  

*3 Star Royals/Mets MLB MONEY!* Chris Young starts on three days rest here. It's a unique position for him to be in. Young is a 6'10 guy who relies on his over the top delivery that batters aren't used to, and the Mets should be better prepared for him now that they have seen him very recently. Young isn't accustomed to starting on 3 days rest obviously, and while he has been in good in the postseason, Young has had his fair share of blowups over the years. 

Steven Matz starts for the Mets. He's a solid lefty who struggles a bit to put contact hitters away. The Royals are great against lefties (.338 wOBA) and Kansas City strikes out less than any other team in the majors. Look for Kansas City to work the counts and hit Matz's fastball well. 

Both teams have had a lot of runners on base throughout this series so far, and I think that continues in this one. At this low total, I think the over has solid value. Take the over. 

*3 Star World Series Game 2 CASH* The New York Mets lost a heartbreaker last night. They probably should have won that game, and you could say it's tough to bounce back from a game like that, but they have the perfect guy throwing for them tonight. Jacob Degrom has been extremely clutch in the postseason. Degrom has allowed a total of 4 runs in 3 postseason starts. All three of those starts have come on the road against good offenses. Degrom has been far more consistent than Johnny Cueto, who will toe the rubber for the Royals in this one. Cueto allowed 4 runs in his first postseason start. He pitched a gem allowing only 2 runs in his second start. He then allowed 8 runs in 2 innings in Toronto. Cueto isn't locating his pitches well right now.

This game is vitally important to the Mets chances in this series. If they can get it back to 1-1, they have the upper hand going back home with favorable pitching matchups. The Mets are 13-3 in Degrom's last 16 road starts. Take New York. 

*3 Star Jays/Royals Game 2 CASH* The Kansas City Royals took a 1-0 lead on the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night. Toronto is the favored team in the series, and with them falling behind early in the series it looks to me like oddsmakers have inflated this line as they suspect the public wants to back Toronto here.

David Price was great in the regular season, but he hasn't been good in the postseason. Price has a 5.48 ERA in last seven postseason appearances. He appears to be throwing too many get ahead fastballs early in the count, and he's been punished for that. The Royals lineup has a very solid .293 average against him as well.

Yordano Ventura has good career numbers against Toronto. Blue Jays hitters have a .222 average against him. Edwin Encarnacion reinjured himself in Game 1 and is questionable for this one. Troy Tulowitzki is still playing in pain as well. This lineup isn't 100 percent.

The Royals are 9-3 in their last 12 home playoff games and they are this big of an underdog? I'll bite on the home underdog. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star Cubs/Cardinals Monday MONEY* The St. Louis Cardinals are very banged up. Chicago is one of the healthiest teams in the playoffs. Michael Wacha stumbles into the playoffs in bad form. He is having issues with his release point right now, and that has led to control problems and the tendency to allow more home runs. The Cubs obviously have a lot of home run hitters, and the wind is blowing out at 20 mph today at Wrigley Field. Jake Arrieta is locked in like no other pitcher right now. Arrieta has dominated just about everyone in the Cardinals lineup this year also. Arrieta does a great job keeping the ball in the park with his cutter. Value on the run line here. Take the Cubs -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Cole Hamels has been lights out in the postseason. In the divisional round of the playoffs, Hamels has an ERA of just a little under 1.50 in his career. Toronto's offense is very good, but the Blue Jays have a lot of pressure on them and this team isn't accustomed to playing in the postseason. Hamels has proven capable of pitching his best when it matters most.

Toronto's Marcus Stroman has fantastic stuff, and he went 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in the month of September. Stroman has a massive home/away split in his career. He has been much better when pitching at home. His career ERA at home is 2.35. Surprisingly enough, the under is 47-31-4 in the Jays home games this year.

Adrian Beltre and Josh Donaldson are both questionable in this one, and either or both of them being out obviously helps the under. Vic Carapazza is behind the plate here and he's ranked in the top 20% of 'under' umpires in my MLB Umpires database for five straight years now.

The under is 7-0-1 in the Rangers last 8 Divisional Playoff road games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. A 14-0 angle. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star NL Wild Card CASH* I'll start this out by saying I'm not excited at all about going against a guy on a run like Jake Arrieta is on, so that's not what this is about. Rather, I'm looking at this from all the other aspects of this game. Arrieta has been amazing, but the Pirates a really good team, especially on their home field. Arrieta hasn't pitched in the postseason and this will be a totally new experience. While Arrieta has been better, don't overlook how good Gerrit Cole is either. He has a 2.25 ERA against the Cubs and has only 5 walks and 32 strikeouts against them.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 53-28 at home this year, and we're getting them at significant plus money here. While Arrieta gives the Cubs a small edge at the starting pitching spot, the Pirates have many edges. Pittsburgh has a better bullpen and a better defense. Bullpens are really important this time of the year. In addition, Pittsburgh has playoff experience that this young Cubs team doesn't. 

The Pirates are 23-5 in Cole's last 28 home starts. They are 8-1 in Cole's last 9 starts vs. the Cubs. Take Pittsburgh as a home underdog here. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Los Angeles Angels have won 7 straight games, and they are right in the thick of the playoff race. They need this game, and all of the rest of them, very badly. This game means nothing to Oakland. Barry Zito will get the start here for Oakland. Zito has pitched at Triple A all year and his peripherals weren't good in Triple A for Oakland. In the big leagues, he pitched 1 inning of relief and gave up 2 runs against Houston. Then last weekend he got a start against San Francisco and was blasted for 6 hits and 4 runs in two innings of work. Garrett Richards has 8 quality starts in his last 10 outings. The Angels offense is finally coming alive. Take Los Angeles -1.5 here. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Minnesota Twins need this game badly. Minnesota trails by only 1.5 games in the AL Wild Card race, but they are behind both Houston and the Los Angeles Angels. There isn't any margin for error for the Twins. Ervin Santana has always been a streaky pitcher, and he has made five very good starts in a row. Detroit's offense has been disappointing down the stretch, and that makes sense to me. Detroit has a bunch of guys who aren't used to missing out on the playoffs, and they are just ready for the season to be over. 

Randy Wolf starts for Detroit in this one, and Wolf is a good guy to look to fade. The Twins hit left handed pitching much better than righties. On the opposite end, Detroit crushes lefties, but is middle of the pack against right handed pitching. I'll side with the better pitcher and the team with more to play for. Take Minnesota. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays meet in what I believe will be a pitching duel on Saturday afternoon. Chris Archer is becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball, and David Price has been one of the best for several years now. Archer's numbers when pitching in Toronto are truly amazing. He has a brilliant 1.66 ERA in seven career starts there. He also has an ERA almost a full run lower during the daytime in his career. David Price has a career ERA of 2.95 during the day. Price has been throwing the best he has in his career down the stretch this season. The Rays offense doesn't have anyone who has hit Price well in the past. The under is a surprising 46-30-3 in Toronto's home games this year. The under is 43-31-5 in the Rays road games this year.

The under is 5-0 in Toronto's last 5 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0 in Price's last 5 home starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Toronto. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two overall. The under is 3-0-1 in Archer's last 4 starts vs. Toronto. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Pittsburgh Pirates are fighting for playoff positioning. They haven't given up in their pursuit of the Cardinals, and the Pirates are playing tremendous baseball right now. One of the main reasons Pittsburgh is so good is their ability to take starters that nobody else wanted in the past and turn them into good pitchers. Pittsburgh's pitching coach, Ray Searage, is one of the best in the business. He's done a great job with J.A. Happ since he came over to the Pirates. Happ has never been a bad starter, but he has taken the jump from a mediocre pitcher to a good one. Happ has a tremendous 1.86 ERA in his career against the Rockies.

Colorado is awful against left-handed pitching. The Rockies are 8-28 in their last 36 games against lefties. Colorado has nothing to play for, and they have a poor starter in Chris Rusin on the mound here. Collectively Pittsburgh's lineup has an amazing .305 average and a .369 on base percentage against Rusin. Pittsburgh is 4-0 in Happ's last 4 starts. The Rockies are 33-80 in their last 113 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The San Francisco Giants offense is a mess now. Injuries have crushed this Giants team. Hunter Pence, Joe Panik, Nori Aoki, and Brandon Belt are all out of the lineup. Jeremy Hellickson pitched well at San Francisco earlier this year. Hellickson has a career 3.19 ERA in the daytime (vs a 4.33 ERA at night). He also has a 1.16 ERA with umpire Ron Kulpa behind the plate. Tim Hudson is about to retire, and he badly wants to finish his career on a strong note. Hudson has a 3.34 daytime ERA in his career (3.56 at night). Ron Kulpa is the umpire here, and he is a major strike caller. 65% of his games have stayed under the total in his last 160 behind the plate. With a reasonably high total of 8 at a pitcher's park, there is value on the under.

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two in San Francisco. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 vs. these two overall. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians have finally started playing good baseball. I've expected this from them all year, but they struggled for a long time before playing well lately. Kansas City is 3-9 in their last 12. The Royals don't have nearly as much to play for as the Indians right now. Cleveland is 13-3 in their last 16 home games. Corey Kluber comes off the DL for this one, and he is definitely the Indians ace. Kluber won't be on a pitch count here, and he has a good history against KC. The Royals have an ugly .272 on base percentage as a team against Kluber. Yordano Ventura is on the mound for the Royals, and he has 5.15 ERA on the road this year. Short price on the home team here. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins have hit left handed pitching well this year, but they have a brutal .297 on base percentage against right handed pitching. Bartolo Colon has been absolutely dealing down the stretch. In Colon's last 17 innings pitched against Miami, he has allowed just one run. Rookie Adam Conley pitches here for the Marlins, and he has a 6.62 ERA on the road so far this season. The Mets were beaten on Tuesday, and they have plenty of reasons to need to keep winning for playoff positioning and home field advantage. Look for a nice bounce back from the Mets on Wednesday night. Take New York -1.5 here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Yankees offense has been up and down lately, and being without Mark Teixeira certainly hurts the team a lot. New York is up against a very good pitcher in Jake Odorizzi here. Odorizzi has a 2.61 ERA at home this year, and in his young career, he has been great when pitching in Tampa. Adam Warren makes the spot start for the Yankees. Warren has been good lately, but he won't pitch too deep into the game. That's not necessarily a bad thing for the under though, since the Yankees clearly have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here. The under is 95-61 in his last 156 games behind the plate, and he is a massive strike caller, so that's a big help. Look for a low scoring contest.

The under is 7-0 in the Yankees last 7 games on turf. The under is 5-0 in Warren's last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Tampa Bay. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays have hit left handed pitching much better than right handed pitching this year. Tampa Bay has a .307 On Base Percentage against righties, but an impressive .328 OBP against lefties. Boston has absolutely destroyed lefties in the past month. For the year overall, they have a .331 OBP against lefties. Rich Hill takes the mound for his first big league start this year. He's never been particularly successful in the big leagues. Drew Smyly is a decent pitcher, but he's up against a Boston team that has been absolutely raking of late. Both bullpens are awful right now, so there's plenty of potential for runs late in the game.

The over is 15-5-1 in the Red Sox last 21 games vs. a lefty. The over is 9-3 in the Rays last 12 home games. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Are the Braves even trying anymore? Atlanta has been hapless in the past few weeks, while the New York Mets are playing as well as anyone in baseball. Noah Syndergaard returns to the rotation here, and he has a great matchup against an offense that has been terrible of late. Syndergaard has struggled on the road, but this is a great chance for a breakthrough. Williams Perez has been bad in his last few outings, and he doesn't have high quality stuff. The Mets offense is absolutely locked in right now. Mismatch all the way around. I'll take the motivated team. Take the New York Mets -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Boston Red Sox have a lot of advantages in this one. Rick Porcello has been dealing since coming back from the disabled list. Porcello seems to be healthy again, and he has gotten some really bad batted ball luck this year that suggests he is better than his numbers indicate. Matt Moore has been getting hit around on a nightly basis lately. Boston beat him up less than two weeks ago at Fenway. Moore hasn't pitched more than 5 innings in his last seven starts. He has allowed 4 runs or more in 5 of those 7 starts. Boston's offense has been crushing left handed pitching in the past month (second only to Toronto in that time). Take Boston. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Pittsburgh Pirates have a bunch to play for right now. The Cincinnati Reds are ready for this year to be over. Pittsburgh still has an outside chance of catching the Cardinals, and they are pushing hard. Cincinnati sends their worst starting pitcher, Keyvius Sampson, to the mound for this one. He's been terrible for the past month. He has major control problems, and he can't pitch deep into the game. That puts the bad Reds bullpen in the game even longer. J.A. Happ starts for Pittsburgh, and he has been terrific of late. Happ has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in his last five starts! The Reds offense has been really bad lately outside of Joey Votto. I expected to see the Pirates at -160 or so. Good price here. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have been absolutely raking at home in the past couple months. This young Red Sox lineup has been hotter than any offense in baseball other than the team they are playing against in this one. Drew Hutchison starts for Toronto here, and he hasn't been good at all against the Red Sox in the past. Hutchison has a career road ERA of 5.88. He has a ridiculous 9.00 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park. Joe Kelly has been better of late, but I don't trust him against the best offense in baseball. Kelly has a 6.46 ERA in four career starts vs. the Blue Jays. The Red Sox bullpen is a mess now as well, so after Kelly leaves things won't get better. The umpire here is Paul Schrieber, and he is well known for being a hitter-friendly umpire. He won't help the pitchers at all in this one. 

The over is 5-0 in the Jays last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 9-0 in Hutchison's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0 in Kelly's last 7 home starts. The over is 4-0 in Hutchison's 4 career starts at Fenway. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Ubaldo Jimenez has a WHIP of 1.88 in his last three games. Jimenez continues to walk a bunch of batters and constantly work with people on base. That usually doesn't work against very good offenses like the Yankees. C.C. Sabathia has struggled all year, especially when pitching at home. The Orioles have good career numbers vs. Sabathia, and the Yankees have good career numbers vs. Jimenez. The home plate umpire here is Paul Emmel. The over is 23-4 in Emmel's last 27 games involving the Yankees. Emmel has one of the smallest strike zones in the majors. 

The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 on grass. The over is 3-0-1 in Jimenez's last 4 Wednesday starts. The over is 5-0-2 in his last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in Sabathia's last 4 after pitching less than 4 innings in his last outing. The over is 7-0 in Emmel's last 7 Wednesday games behind the plate in New York. A 32-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Mets and Washington Nationals meet in a very big game for both teams tonight in Washington. Matt Harvey and Jordan Zimmermann take the mound here. Harvey has been in the news with some questions about whether he would pitch in the playoffs. I think Harvey comes out here and dominates as he has done in the past against Washington. In 8 career starts vs. the Nationals, Harvey has a 0.99 ERA. Jordan Zimmermann has been great at home this year, and he is pitching well of late. I think he will shut down the Mets offense as well. This looks like a pitcher's duel to me. Harvey has allowed one run or less in 5 of his last 6 games. Zimmermann has a 2.4 ERA at home this year. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Tampa Bay Rays have a bad offense against right handed pitching, but against left-handed pitching they are solid. Tampa Bay has a .305 on base percentage against right handed pitching, and a .329 on base percentage against lefties. Detroit will start Randy Wolf in this one and Wolf isn't a good big league starter. He wasn't good a couple years ago, and now he is even worse. He was torched in his last start. Drew Smyly is a pretty decent starter. Detroit is missing shortstop Iglesias, and he had been big for them both in the field and at the plate. Tampa Bay's bullpen is middle of the road, while Detroit's is among the very worst in the majors. Detroit is 3-13 in their last 16 games. They are 2-7 in their last 9 home games. Tampa Bay is 9-2 in Smyly's last 11 starts. Detroit is 0-3 in Wolf's three starts for them. Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals have been a terrific under team all year. St. Louis has a great starting staff and a very good bullpen. John Lackey is very underrated at this stage of his career. He has been lights out when pitching at Busch Stadium. Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole is a pitcher I really like, and he's facing a Cardinals lineup that is without several of their best hitters. I see this one as a 2-1 or 3-2 type of pitching duel. Take the under in this Sunday night contest. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Houston Astros have been a terrific bet with Dallas Keuchel on the mound at home this year. Keuchel is absolutely dominating hitters at home, and this Twins offense doesn't typically step up against the top pitchers in baseball. Duffey is a decent prospect, but he has been shaky away from home, and Houston is a great team at home this year. At essentially even money, I like the run line. Take Houston -1.5. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Washington Nationals have finally started playing much better baseball. It may be too late in the end, but they are only 5 games back of the Mets and much stranger things have happened. Atlanta is playing awful baseball right now. I was low on them to start the year and they surprised me by hovering around .500. Now they have completely tanked and they appear to have packed it in for the season. Atlanta has now lost 11 straight games, and they are 12-40 in their last 52 games. In their 11 game losing streak, they have lost all 11 games by at least two runs! Joe Ross is a good prospect who has been sharp at home this year. Take Washington -1.5 big! MLB TOP Play of the Week

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers have had some really high scoring games this year. These are two teams with questionable rotations and bullpens that are taxed right now. The ball is really flying well at Great American Ballpark with a temperature around 90 degrees in Cincinnati. We have a favorable umpire for this one and two pitchers with plenty of blowup potential. I was surprised to be able to get this price in this matchup.

The over is 7-0-1 in the Brewers last 8 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. The over is 7-0-2 in their last 9 following a win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NL Central. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5. The over is 4-0-1 in Jimmy Nelson's last 5 starts vs. the NL Central. The over is 8-0 in the Reds last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 following a loss. A 52-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Run Line ROUT* The Baltimore Orioles have played some really bad baseball in recent weeks. It's hard to expect things to go any better on Sunday for them as they have Chris Tillman on the mound up again a fantastic Toronto Blue Jays offense. To say that Tillman has been bad against the Blue Jays is a big understatement. In 18 career starts, he has a 5.68 ERA. He has faced them four times this year, and he has a whopping 15.00 ERA in those four starts. Marco Estrada has been a nice surprise for Toronto and I think he'll get the run support he needs. Take Toronto -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers are good against right handed pitching and Jered Weaver isn't even close to the pitcher he used to be. Weaver is out there throwing 83 mph fastballs on a consistent basis, and it's tough to get big league hitters out doing that unless you are spotting the ball perfectly every single time. Texas' offense has been hot of late, and I see them getting several in this one. The Angels offense has been a disappointment this year, but their career numbers against Derek Holland are terrific. In 119 and 1/3 career innings against the Angels, Holland has a 5.88 ERA. Texas' bullpen is arguably the worst in all of baseball. There should be plenty of scoring chances in this one. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Rangers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The over is 5-0-1 in Holland's last 6 Saturday starts. The over is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with a total of 7 to 8.5. The over is 4-0 in Holland's last 4 starts vs. the Angels. The over is 5-0 in home plate umpire Marty Foster's last 5 games behind the plate in a game involving the Angels. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Boston Red Sox offense has been amazing in the past 30 days. They rank 3rd in on base percentage during the past month. Joe Kelly was really bad for a long time this year, but he has turned things around a lot in recent outings. Kelly has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last five starts. Philadelphia's offense has been much better against lefties than righties this year. On the other hand, Boston has torched left handed pitching in the past month. Only Toronto has better numbers against lefties during that time. Adam Morgan has poor peripherals and he never dominated in the minors. Boston's offense should do quite a bit of damage against Morgan in this one. The Red Sox are 6-0 in Kelly's last 6 starts. I like the Red Sox to win comfortably. Take Boston -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Washington Nationals come home to play the lowly Atlanta Braves on Thursday night. Atlanta was a team I was low on coming into the year. The Braves somehow held their own and were a .500 team for a long time. Now, the bottom has fallen out. The Braves are 14-38 in their last 52 games. Atlanta comes into this game having lost eight games in a row. In those eight games, the Braves have lost by a a combined 48 runs. All 8 of those games they have lost by at least two runs. This team is playing the worst baseball in the majors. Washington's Jordan Zimmermann has a great 2.59 ERA against the Braves in his career. Matt Wisler has a 6.52 ERA on the road this season. Take Washington -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers have taken the first two games of this series, and in last night's game we did see the pitching duel I expected. I took the under in that one, and I'm taking the under again here. Mike Leake certainly isn't the pitcher Madison Bumgarner is, but Leake is a solid guy who will be facing a Dodgers lineup that is less than 100 percent. The San Francisco Giants lineup is way less than 100 percent healthy. San Francisco really misses Hunter Pence and Joe Panik, and Brandon Crawford is questionable for this game as well. Clayton Kershaw is nothing short of awesome. Kershaw has allowed more than one run in only one of his last ten starts. That's a ridiculous run, and the under is 20-5-2 in his last 27 starts vs. the Giants. Muchlinksi is behind the plate here and he's a solid under umpire.

The under is 3-0-2 in the Giants last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 5-0 in the Dodgers last 5 games with a total of 6.5 or lower. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after their opponent allows 2 runs or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 as a home favorite of -201 or higher. The under is 7-0 in Kershaw's last 7 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts as a favorite of -201 or higher. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts with a total of 6.5 or lower. A 43-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals have been the best team in baseball throughout the course of the year. I continue to be surprised at the little respect they receive from the oddsmakers. St. Louis is definitely beat up right now with several key players out with injuries, but they keep finding ways to come back and win games like they have against Washington in the first two of this series. Max Scherzer has given up at least 3 runs in his last 5 starts. Michael Wacha is lights out at home. The Cardinals have the bullpen edge, and they are a whopping 48-19 at home this year. At this price, I'll gladly take the home team.

The Nationals are 0-4 in Scherzer's last 4 starts. They are 0-4 in their last 4 games with a total of 6.5 or lower. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. They are 0-6 in their last 6 road games with a total of 6.5 or lower. They are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. They are 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games. They are 6-0 in Wacha's last 6 home starts with a total of 6.5 or lower. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 53-0 angle. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Kansas City Royals have the second best team batting average in baseball. The Detroit Tigers have the best team batting average in baseball. Two of the best offenses do battle in Kansas City on Wednesday night. Randy Wolf starts for the Tigers and I really don't know how he made it back to the big leagues. Wolf wasn't any good in the majors a couple years ago, but the Tigers badly needed a started and have given him a shot. Wolf has been pretty good in his first couple starts, but I don't think that continues. Yordano Ventura has been good lately, but he has a career 4.56 ERA against Detroit. Herrera is out for KC right now and that makes their bullpen a little less dominant. The Tigers bullpen isn't any good. Too low of a number. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Dodgers in extra innings last night. Madison Bumgarner is the ultimate stopper, and he has been amazing against the Dodgers in the past. Bumgarner needs to work deep into this game because the Giants used up their bullpen a lot last night. Having him around for even longer is a good thing for the under. Bumgarner has a career ERA of 2.08 at Dodger Stadium. Greinke has been amazing all season, and he's even better at home. Greinke has an ERA of 1.42 at home this year. There won't be many baserunners in this game. The under is 6-1-1 in Bumgarner's last 8 starts at Los Angeles. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Miami Marlins rank dead last in the majors in offense vs. right handed pitching, but they are 10th against lefties. They'll be up against a lefty tonight. Manny Banuelos starts for the Braves and he has been really shaky in his big league starts thus far. Lefty Justin Nicolino starts for the Marlins. Nicolino is a really good prospect, and he's up against an Atlanta offense that has been awful against lefties all year. Atlanta seems to have given up in recent days, and Miami is still fighting. Miami has the much better bullpen here, so if it's close late they have the edge. Take Miami. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians bats have woken up. It's helped that they have started to get healthy, and Carlos Santana is hitting the ball much better of late. Toronto's offense is the best in the league, and it isn't even close. Cody Anderson had a nice first few starts in the big leagues, but he has been hit around hard since then. Toronto was quieted by Danny Salazar last night. Salazar is an elite young pitcher, but Anderson isn't even close to the same quality. Toronto will get back on track offensively here. Miguel Estrada has been extremely fortunate with batted ball luck and his strand rate this year. I think he is overrated at this point. Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire here and he is known for his small strike zone. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Baltimore Orioles are playing some really bad baseball of late. Texas is going in the other direction. At this point, the Orioles are almost out of the Wild Card race, while the Rangers are in great position. Miguel Gonzalez has been in bad form lately, and the Rangers offense is hot now. The ball will be flying well with a 96 degree day in Texas, and I think that's bad for Gonzelez. Derek Holland has pitched well in Arlington in his career. Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* In his last 7 starts, Stephen Strasburg hasn't allowed more than two runs in any single contest. Strasburg looks healthier than he has looked in a long time. Stanton is still out of the lineup for Miami and Yelich has been out the last couple days as well. This Miami lineup is really bad. Brad Hand has an ERA of 7.71 in 7 career starts vs. Washington. The Nationals need this game and I think they win easily. Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays have the 6th best offense in the majors in the past month. Kansas City has a steady offense that is underrated by most. Nate Karns has struggled at home this year. Danny Duffy has struggled with his control, and that has led to a disappointing season for him. With a total this low, I like the value on the over.

The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 after a loss. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 3-0-1 in Karns' last 4 home starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the AL Central. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Mark Buehrle has some awful career numbers against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are the second best offense in the league, and they are particularly good against lefties. Toronto is the best offense in the league, and Alfredo Simon has allowed at least 5 runs in 5 of his last 10 starts. This Blue Jays offense is raking right now, and Simon has been terrible. Plenty of run scoring in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* It's very rare that I play a +1.5 run line, but in this case I'm doing it. The Minnesota Twins have proven people wrong all year. They are right in the thick of the playoff race, and it's primarily thanks to how great they have been at home. Minnesota is 38-24 at home this year. Houston is only 26-36 on the road. Mike Fiers is a good pitcher, but he threw a career high 134 pitches in his no hitter last game. Mike Pelfrey isn't a guy I trust, but he does have an ERA under 2 at home this year. The Astros hitters have been struggling in the past few weeks. A game with a low total and an under umpire in Doug Eddings is a good spot to play a solid home team at +1.5 and a small amount of juice. Take Minnesota +1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies offense has been surprisingly good for the past month. The Phillies bullpen is really worn out, and they aren't very good to start with. Adam Morgan is a youngster who doesn't have impressive stuff. His peripheral suggest he has been fortunate to not have worse numbers so far this season. Rea is a youngster who comes with little fanfare for the Padres as well. These are two guys who haven't shown much. Andy Fletcher is a solid over umpire with a very small strike zone. The weather will help with an 80 degree night and wind blowing out. 

The over is 3-0-1 in the Padres last 4 as a road favorite. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0-1 in the Phillies last 5 overall. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. the NL West. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 as an underdog. The over is 5-0-1 in Morgan's last 6 home starts. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 on 4 days of rest. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts with a total of 8.5 or lower. A 50-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Cincinnati Reds lineup isn't producing of late. Outside of Joey Votto, the Reds haven't been able to count on anyone. Milwaukee's lineup isn't even close to what it was before the trade deadline. Raisel Iglesias and Taylor Jungmann are two very talented youngsters. Iglesias has an ERA under 2 in the month of August. Jungmann has an ERA under 2 at home this year. Jungmann also gave up only one run in 8 innings pitched in his outing vs. the Reds in July. With both lineups looking like a mess right now, I think both starters can work deep into this game and pitch well. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers arguably have the two best offenses in baseball. With Miguel Cabrera back, the Tigers offense is once again dangerous. Toronto's numbers against left handed pitching this year are scary good. They have a .357 OBP and average 5.66 runs per game against left handed pitching. Matt Boyd has struggled so far in his career and this is a tough spot for him against his former team. R.A. Dickey hasn't been good lately, and the Tigers have crushed him in the past. Overall, the current Tigers lineup has an amazing .346 average and a .424 OBP against him.

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 as a road underdog. The over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a left handed starter. The over is 6-0 in Dickey's last 6 as a favorite of -150 to -200. The over is 4-0 in Dickey's last 4 starts vs. the Tigers. A 26-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The San Diego Padres have been swinging the bat better of late. The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen is a disaster right now. They have been overworked and they are coming off an extra innings game last night. Ian Kennedy hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in any of his last 10 games. He has a 1.02 ERA in his last three outings overall. The Phillies have the least talent in the majors right now, so at this price I'm going to back the Padres. Take San Diego. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays are actually pretty similar teams right now. They both have overachieved compared to their real talent levels this year. Both of them struggle badly against right handed pitching, but they are both much better at hitting left handed pitching. How much better? Minnesota has an OBP of .297 against righties and .311 against lefties. Tampa Bay has an OBP of .302 against righties and .327 against lefties. Drew Smyly and Tommy Milone aren't bad pitchers, but neither of them pitch particularly deep into the game, and they are both lefties. Both of these bullpens are bad right now, and I see the potential for scoring in the late innings. Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here and he is a solid over umpire. 

The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 on turf. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games with a total of 7 to 8.5. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 games between these two teams in Tampa Bay. The over is 5-0 in Emmel's last 5 Thursday games behind the plate. A 45-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cincinnati Reds have been much better at hitting left handed pitchers this year than righties. The Reds have a solid .318 on base percentage against lefties. The Dodgers started the year slowly against lefties, but they have been hitting them really well of late. Los Angeles has a very good .337 OBP against lefties this year. Holmberg hasn't been good at all, and I don't see him turning it around against this good offense. Anderson has been shaky in his last few starts. The Dodgers pen has been bad of late and the Reds pen has been bad all year long. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins have hit left handed pitching well all year. They can't hit right handers, but they are 7th in the majors at hitting lefties. Jeff Locke has some ridiculous home/away splits. He's really good at home and really bad on the road. Chris Narveson was bad in the minors and I see no reason to believe he'll be good in the majors. The Pirates have 6 homers against him in only 58 total at bats. Pittsburgh's offense should bounce back from a poor outing on Tuesday. The over is 14-4-2 in Locke's last 20 road starts. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Mets offense is absolutely on fire right now. Jerad Eickhoff had a really good first outing against Miami, but this Mets offense is far tougher than the Marlins offense is to get through. Eickhoff isn't necessarily a bad pitcher, but he'll definitely have some speed bumps. Bartolo Colon has been bad lately. Colon doesn't have the same kind of stuff he's had in the past, and at 42 years old his career is close to an end. The Phillies offense has been surprisingly good in the past few weeks. The ball flies well in Philly this time of the year and both bullpens have struggled in recent weeks.

The over is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 with a total of 7 to 8.5. The over is 4-0 in Colon's last 4 road starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a road favorite. The over is 5-0 in the Phillies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more. The over is 6-0 in Colon's last 6 starts vs. the Phillies. A 31-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Kansas City Royals continue to play great baseball at home. The oddsmakers have underrated them on their home field all year. Kansas City is 43-20 at home this year. Danny Duffy isn't necessarily a shutdown pitcher, but he is decent. Miguel Gonzalez has been terrible of late. Gonzalez has a 7.56 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Royals are much better against right handed pitching, while the Orioles are slightly better against righties as well. The Royals have a decided advantage in the bullpen. They also have the better defensive team. A good price on a very good home team.

The Orioles are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the AL Central. They are 0-5 in their last 5 overall. They are 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog. They are 0-5 in their last 5 with a total of 7 to 8.5. They are 0-5 in Gonzalez's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 as a home favorite. They are 7-0 in his last 7 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. Kansas City is 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. the Orioles. They are 5-0 in their last 5 home contests vs. Baltimore. A 53-0 angle. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Miami Marlins offense went through a brief period where they were crushing the ball. Now, they are back to reality. Without Stanton this offense isn't any good. Charlie Morton is a streaky pitcher and he threw a shutout last outing. Brad Hand has been good at home this year, and he is starting to show some promise for the Marlins. Both of these teams have terrific bullpens. Brian O'Nora is behind the plate in this contest and he is definitely a strike caller. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Colorado Rockies and Atlanta Braves have two of the worst bullpens in baseball. I expect we'll see a lot of both bullpens here, and that's the biggest reason I like the over. Chad Bettis should be on a pitch count in his first start back from an elbow injury. Mike Foltynewicz hasn't shown the ability to pitch deep into games thanks to his wildness. Foltynewicz has given up at least 6 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. He has an ERA of over 6 this season. The Braves offense is much better at home and they have been a solid over play at Turner Field. The Rockies might be without Carlos Gonzalez here, but the lineup is fairly deep. 

The over is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The over is 5-0 in Foltynewicz's last 5 starts on 4 days rest. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 starts as a home underdog. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL West. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts after Atlanta scores 5 runs or more. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. A 28-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Kansas City Royals are 42-20 at home this year. The Baltimore Orioles are 23-35 on the road. Medlen makes his first start for the Royals here. He was a good starter in Atlanta, and I think he can hold his own. Ubaldo Jimenez has been good at home this year, but he has been terrible on the road. The Orioles won last time Jimenez pitched, and that was at home, but Jimenez was really wild and fortunate to get let off the hook multiple times. Kansas City has a bullpen edge and a defensive edge here. At this short price, I'm laying it with the home team. 

The Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 as an underdog. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the AL Central. They are 0-4 in their last 4 games overall. They are 0-4 in Jimenez's last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. Kansas City is 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. Baltimore. They are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. the Orioles. A 27-0 angle. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Atlanta Braves have one of the worst offenses in baseball against left handed pitching. Colorado's offense is middle of the pack in weighted on base average in the past month. They go to a much more pitcher friendly park here in Atlanta. Julio Teheran has been much better in the last month. Teheran has been great at home all year. He has a 2.44 ERA at home this season. Jorge De La Rosa is throwing the ball better right now than he has at any point throughout the season. With the move up to 7.5, there is value in the under. The wind will be blowing in and there is no significant warmth in Atlanta. Take the under here. 

*4 Star EPIC 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies crush right handed pitching. The Colorado Rockies also have a bad starting rotation and a really bad bullpen. The Mets have a good rotation, but making a spot start here is Logan Verrett. It's a really tough spot for the young kid who has below average stuff. Verrett has almost no big league experience, and he hasn't been that great in the minors. I don't expect him to go to Coors Field and find success. Day games at Coors Field are well known for their high scoring tendencies. David Hale isn't a good pitcher at all. He has an ERA above 6 and this Mets offense has been on a great run in the first couple games. They should keep it going against him in this one. The number is high for a very good reason.

The over is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 games. The over is 10-0-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite. The over is 3-0-1 in Hale's last 4 starts when the Rockies opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 as a home underdog. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts overall. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts. A 53-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday's Best Bet* The Los Angeles Angels offense has been much better against right handed pitching as compared to lefties this year. Marco Estrada has been fortunate this year, and I see him getting tripped up in this one. Heaney is a decent lefty, but the Blue Jays rake against left handed pitching. They destroyed the ball against a pretty good lefty last night, and I think they'll hit it well again here. A total of just 8 is too low for these two teams on a warm evening in Los Angeles. I expect at least one of these two offenses to have a big day. Take the over here. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Oakland A's are 7-0 in Sonny Gray's last 7 starts when he is a favorite of -110 to -150. Gray is one of the best pitchers in the American League, and Tampa Bay's offense has been bad all year against right handed pitching. Erasmo Ramirez has been good this year, but he has been much worse on the road. The A's are a perfect 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts vs. Ramirez. The Tampa Bay bullpen is badly injured right now, and Oakland's bullpen has actually been better in recent weeks. Take Oakland here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies and New York Mets had an exciting high scoring affair on Friday night. The ball was leaving the yard at Coors early and often on Friday. I look for a lot more scoring on Saturday night. Jon Niese has struggled in his three starts at Coors in his career (6.75 ERA). Chris Rusin is coming off a great outing, but he isn't a good big league pitcher. The Mets are solid against lefties of late, and Cespedes has been huge for this lineup. Both bullpens have been bad recently, and there should be a bunch of scoring opportunities for both teams.

The over is 5-0 in the Mets last 5. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 on grass. The over is 3-0-1 in Niese's last 4 starts with a total of 9 or higher. A 23-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Road Warrior* Yordano Ventura has been inconsistent this year, but his peripherals suggest he is still a talented guy who should be fine in the long run. Kansas City losing the first two games in this series makes this a play for me. Boston has definitely been playing better lately, but this game means more to Kansas City, and the Royals have big edges in many spots here. Barnes isn't a big league quality starter, and the Royals have huge advantages both defensively as well as in the bullpen. Look for the Royals to bounce back here. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Cincinnati Reds are in freefall right now. The Reds are one of those teams that can't wait for the season to end. They just traded away one of their better bats in Marlon Byrd. Todd Frazier has been ice cold since the All Star Break. Billy Hamilton is on the DL. Brandon Phillips is dinged up too. David Holmberg starts for the Reds in this one. Nothing he has done in the minors or the majors would suggest that he is going to be a good big league starter. De La Rosa starts for Arizona, and I've been impressed the way he has improved in the second half of the season. The Diamondbacks are good against lefties. With Inciarte, Pollock, Goldschmitt, and Peralta the Diamondbacks have an underrated lineup. Good price on the road team. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates shut out the San Francisco Giants in game one of this series last night. It's a key series for both teams. Madison Bumgarner starts for San Francisco in this one. There isn't a better big game pitcher in baseball than Bumgarner. The Giants offense really misses Hunter Pence. Jeff Locke has been very good at home throughout his career. San Francisco is better against right handed pitching, so Locke has a good chance of keeping the Giants under control. Bumgarner is throwing it better than he ever has in the regular season, and the Pirates offense has been inconsistent at best of late. 

The under is 4-0-1 in the Giants last 5. The under is 7-0-1 in the Giants last 8 with a total of 7 to 8.5. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. the NL Central. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0-2 in Bumgarner's last 6. The under is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Detroit Tigers are a much better team with Miguel Cabrera healthy and hitting in the middle of the order. I realize that's an obvious statement, but I believe the lines we've been seeing with Detroit in recent days suggest the oddsmakers aren't adjusting this team enough now that they are getting healthy. This Tigers offense is capable of big things when they are healthy. Detroit has been crushing the baseball of late, and now they face Colby Lewis. As a team, Detroit's current lineup has an amazing .347 average against Lewis. Justin Verlander has allowed one earned run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. He is inconsistent, but he has the better offense backing him, and the Tigers deserve to be a bigger favorite at home. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Collin McHugh has been throwing the ball a lot better lately. McHugh has regained control of his offspeed pitches to keep batters off balance. Tampa Bay's offense has been bad for most of the year, and after a brief hot stretch early this month, they have come back down to earth in the last few games. Chris Archer is one of the best pitchers in baseball and he should bounce back nicely from his poor outing in Texas last time out. The Astros have a lot of free swingers, and I think Archer racks up the strikeouts in this one.

The under is 8-1 in McHugh's last 9 starts. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the AL East. A 19-1 angle. Take the under.