*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year at .373. This offense was pretty good to start the season and after adding in Acuna they are really a force. There is much more depth in this lineup than in most NL lineups, and Freddie Freeman continues to be underrated in the middle of the order.

The Mets have been badly banged up, and their season has turned south quickly in the last few days. Degrom was injured when pitching last night and was going for an MRI to see how bad the news is. They can't afford to have any more major injuries.

The Braves have the pitching edge with Teheran going against Vargas. Vargas' stuff didn't look good at all in his first start back from an injury, and he's going against a very good lineup. Teheran has been money against the Mets in the past. At Citi Field, Teheran has a sparkling 2.39 ERA in 10 starts.

Take Atlanta. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Jason Vargas is a mediocre lefty, and he is coming off a fairly major injury. Vargas isn't likely to work deep into the game, and the Mets bullpen is worn out right now. 

Julio Teheran has good history against the Mets in Citi Field, but Teheran's advanced statistics this year suggest he has been fortunate thus far. His fastball velocity is down more than 2 mph from last year, and his hard hit rate allowed is up quite a bit. The Braves bullpen is a big problem as well. 

A large reason for this play is the weather. Temperatures in the upper 80's and winds blowing out at 15-20 mph are tremendous for the over. 

In the past 15 years- when the wind is blowing out at least 10 mph at Citi Field- the over is a whopping 116-67 (63.4% overs). If you look at totals of 8.5 or lower only, the over rate goes up to better than 66% during that span.

Two shaky starters and winds howling out on a hot day are a recipe for runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather calls for temperatures in the low 80's and wind blowing out at about 15 mph during this game. That's very favorable conditions for an over.

Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he is one the best over umpires in baseball. Holbrook has seen 54.5% of his games in his career behind the dish go over the total. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently low compared to the big league average.

Giolito has walked a lot more guys than he has struck out this year. He'll likely have trouble against a Cardinals lineup that is very deep. The White Sox bullpen is one of the worst in baseball as well.

Carlos Martinez is a good pitcher, but he is due for some regression due to his batted ball luck and his strand rate so far this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers start Michael Fulmer here. Fulmer has been superb both during his career in both the first half of the season and at home. Fulmer has a 2.76 ERA in the first half of the year vs. a 4.25 ERA in the second half. He has a 3.19 ERA at home. His WHIP when pitching at home is 1.051 vs. 1.23 on the road. Fulmer has been his very best in day games in his career. Fulmer's career WHIP during day games is 0.989. He gets a below average lineup at home in a day game here.

Blake Snell has been absolutely dealing of late. Snell has walked one batter and struck out 24 in his last three starts combined. Snell has allowed more than 2 runs in only one start this season. That is despite facing Boston twice and the Yankees once already this year. His swinging strike rate was 10.8% last year and it has jumped to 13.8% this year.

This is a get away day game and that should mean some regular guys get the day off. Miguel Cabrera is questionable due to an injury.

The weather calls for a strong breeze from the SW which should serve to slow down fly balls hit toward right field. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday Best Bet* The Chicago White Sox start James Shields here, and I strongly believe Shields is fade material. Shields has lost 3 mph off his fastball in the past four years. He is walking more guys than he is striking out. His hard contact rate is the highest it has been in many years. Shields has an ERA above 6 despite being fortunate on his home run rate compared to his recent averages. I expect a bad season from Shields.

Michael Wacha has thrown the ball much better in his last couple starts. He is getting ahead in the count more and his velocity has improved some. The White Sox are without Avisail Garcia, and this lineup isn't very good against right handed pitching. 

The Cardinals lineup is one of the deepest in the National League, and they should make Shields work. The White Sox bullpen ranks as one of the bottom five in baseball. The Cardinals bullpen is a little better than league average. 

This one is a mismatch in many areas.

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers rank 21st in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Justin Turner is their most consistent hitter against lefties and he's out with an injury.

Ty Blach is a mediocre pitcher on the whole, but his numbers against the Dodgers are tremendous. Dodgers hitters have a .259 weighted on base average against him in 125 plate appearances. Blach has a 1.90 ERA against the Dodgers in 47 and 1/3 innings. In addition, Blach has a 2.57 ERA in day games in his career (it is 5.32 at night).

Kenta Maeda has a 5.20 ERA in day games in his career. Maeda has a poor 4.40 ERA against the Giants in his career. The Dodgers bullpen is overworked of late, and the Giants always get up for this series. 

The Dodgers are a better team than the Giants, but this price is too big considering Blach's success against the Dodgers and their inability to hit lefties with their current lineup.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these offenses are excellent. Thus far in the season, Oakland is second in weighted on base average and Houston is 7th. These two lineups are more than capable of putting up big numbers. They have both done it very consistently. Houston has scored 7 runs or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Oakland has scored 8 runs or more in 7 of their last 15 games.

Gerrit Cole has been great so far this year, but you have to expect his numbers to regress some over time. Cole has stranded 92.4% of runners so far this year which can't continue long term. 

Trevor Cahill has only started two games and those were both against subpar offenses. The Astros are one of the best offenses in baseball. I don't trust Cahill, and he's backed by a mediocre bullpen.

Segal is a bit of an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone and if the roof is open the wind is expected to be blowing out in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joey Lucchesi has been tremendous so far this year. His deceptive delivery and interesting "churve" pitch have taken the league by storm. Until you have seen him at least once, I think most teams will struggle against him. The Mets are below average against lefties, and Lucchesi is backed by a top five bullpen in the majors as well.

Jason Vargas has historically been a great pitcher in the first half of the season and a terrible second half pitcher. The Padres are bottom five in the league in weighted on base average against lefties.

Marty Foster is the home plate umpire here and the under is 209-175 in his career behind home plate. He routinely calls a higher percentage of strikes than the normal home plate umpire. 

Look for a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Nick Pivetta has really impressed me this year. Pivetta was great in the minors and he had a high home run allowed rate last year that ruined his season, but he is getting ahead this year with first pitch strikes and his home run rate is way down. Pivetta isn't walking anyone, and reducing walks is a huge step for a guy that can get this many swinging strikes. Pivetta is still undervalued by the betting markets.

Mike Foltynewicz has been terrible on the road in his career. He has an ERA over 5.5 on the road. His numbers look solid so far this year, but this is a tougher test than he has received in most of his outings. 

The Braves bullpen is a major problem, and Philly has received solid bullpen work this season.

The Braves are 0-7 in Foltynewicz's last 7 road starts. The Phillies are 7-0 in Pivetta's last 7 home starts. The Phillies are 6-0 in Pivetta's last 6 starts vs. the NL East. A 20-0 angle.

Take Philadelphia. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds offense is much better than they have performed so far this year. They were without some key guys for long stretches earlier this year. Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez are back in the lineup now, and that should help in a big way. Joey Votto has heated up in the last few games, and he's still one of the best hitters in the game. 

Cincinnati's pitching staff is still a major problem. Romano isn't getting many swinging strikes, and he is getting behind in the count too often. 

Minnesota's offense is also better than they have shown this year. The Twins have guys like Sano and Dozier who should perform better than they have to this point. 

Odorizzi has been very fortunate in recent years with his ERA vs his FIP and xFIP, and I don't expect his fortunes to continue to be so good. His batting average on balls in play allowed is only .250 this year and that shows regression should be on the way.

These are two of the worst five bullpens in baseball. 

Tom Woodring is the umpire here and the over is 41-26 in his career behind the dish.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Kansas City Royals might be the worst team in the American League. Them laying this kind of price is a fade for me. Danny Duffy's velocity is down and his control has been terrible this year. Duffy can't throw his offspeed pitches for strikes this season. 

Even when Duffy has been in good form in previous years, the White Sox have hit him really hard. In 157 plate apperances, the White Sox lineup has a whopping .411 weighted on base average against Duffy. Last year and this year alone, Duffy has a 8.10 ERA in five starts against the White Sox.

The Royals have the worst bullpen in baseball as well, so things don't get any better after Duffy comes out- they get worse. 

Chicago's lineup isn't great, but it is better than Kansas City's. 

I'll take the plus money price.

Take the White Sox. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals host the Chicago White Sox here. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph. 

Danny Duffy has an 8.10 ERA in his last five starts against the White Sox. Duffy's control has been terrible this year, and his getting behind batters is making his home runs allowed rate even worse. He's a fly ball pitcher and with the wind blowing out that should hurt him.

Reynaldo Lopez has had a lot of trouble throwing strikes too. It hasn't hurt him so far very much, but in the long run when you aren't getting that high of a strikeout rate and you are getting behind a lot of people, it should hurt. 

The Royals have the worst bullpen in baseball, and the White Sox rank in the bottom 8 of baseball in relief pitching in almost every advanced statistic. 

Look for both teams to have plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* What have the Baltimore Orioles done to be any kind of a favorite here? What has Chris Tillman done that would encourage anyone to want to back him? 

Chris Tillman could go out and dominate here (you never know in one game) and totally change the look of things, but there is absolutely nothing in his work last year or this year that would suggest that will happen. Tillman was awful last year, and he has been even worse so far this season. Tillman had a 7.84 ERA and a 6.93 FIP last year. He has a 9.87 ERA and a 8.09 FIP this year. Tillman has walked more batters than he has struck out, and he is giving up a ton of hard contact. 

Detroit's offense ranks eighth in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. The Orioles offense ranks second to last (only Miami is worse) in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. 

The Orioles have significant injury issues. Schoop, Rasmus, Beckham, and Trumbo are all out of the lineup. Britton isn't at the back end of the bullpen either.

Mike Fiers hasn't been great, and he can be hit hard at times, but his numbers are night and day better than Tillman's.

This line makes no sense to me.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* Matt Koch hasn't been any good in the minors of late, and I don't see any reason to expect him to do well in the majors. Koch had a brutal 8.40 ERA in 10 starts in Triple A last year. His FIP was 6.92- so it wasn't about bad luck as it was just getting hit hard. 

Koch had a good first start against the light hitting Padres at home, but now he must go on the road and take on a much improved Phillies lineup. Led by Carlos Santana, the Phillies have walked much more this year and their patience at the plate should pay off against Koch.

Ben Lively isn't a great pitcher, but he is improving steadily. Lively is allowing less than 30% hard contact on batted balls this year. His swinging strike rate is up as well. 

This is primarily a fade of Koch, but I think the Phillies are still a solid value as the market tries to adjust to the Phillies no longer being a bottom feeder.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play on A's ML* I realize Kendall Graveman has been terrible so far this year. He might get hit around again here, but even if we give the Rangers the advantage at starting pitcher, the massive difference in the Oakland lineup and the Texas lineup right now is too big to ignore given this price.

Oakland has arguably the most improved offense in the NBA. The A's depth is tremendous- the bottom of the order guys are just as tough to get out as the guys at the top.

Texas' pitching is going to have a really tough season. The Rangers offense can usually make up for those issues, but they aren't as good this year. Now, they are badly banged up. Andrus and Odor are out, and Adrian Beltre got injured in their game on Tuesday and is doubtful. The bottom of this Rangers order is extremely weak.

This isn't a move to back Graveman, but rather a selection to fade Texas at this price. I think the market is still too high on Texas. 

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Baltimore Orioles are banged up in a big way right now. They are without Mark Trumbo, Colby Rasmus, Johnathan Schoop, and now they are likely to be without Tim Beckham as well.

Tampa Bay isn't a strong offense by far, but they have been much better than the Orioles offense so far this year. 

Baltimore's .266 on base percentage against right handed pitching is worst in the majors. The Orioles bottom of the order is about as weak as you'll see from anyone.

Alex Cobb had no spring training this year and it has thrown him off. Jake Faria has allowed 1 run or less in 3 of his 4 starts this year. 

At a plus money price- I'll take the Rays against the struggling and badly injured Orioles.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Diego Padres aren't a particularly good team, but the price is too high here given all the data points we have on this one.

Jon Gray has been a terrible favorite to this point in his career. The Rockies are 8-17 in Gray's 25 career starts as a moneyline favorite of -185 or lower. If you bet $100 on the Rockies in each of Gray's 25 career starts in that price range- you'd be down more than $1,100 already.

Divisional underdogs in the first half of the season have been extremely profitable in the long run. In fact, by taking divisional underdogs of +130 or higher the ROI is above 10% without any other filters in the past ten years. That's a huge sample size. On the road the number is even better.

Gray's worst month of the year is the first month by a huge margin. His 7.17 ERA in the first month in his career is terrible.

Tyson Ross has more movement on the slider this year than he has had in any other year. Ross has been good at Coors Field in the past, and he's backed by a tremendous bullpen.

Too high of a price on this underdog.

Take San Diego. 

*4 Star Play on Oakland A's ML* The Texas Rangers were going to be way down this year before injury trouble hit them, but with the injuries added in I expect this to be a really rough season for the Rangers. Their starting pitching is awful. The lineup isn't as good as it was in past years- and now they are without Andrus and Odor. 

Cole Hamels was an ace in the past, but he is no longer a true ace. Hamels used to allow hard hit rates that were extremely low (in the 26 or 27% range). Last year the percentage of balls hit hard against Hamels jumped to 36%. This year the rate is an extreme 42.5% thus far. Hamels is a mediocre pitcher now. 

The A's lineup has a tremendous .411 OBP and a .442 weighted on base average against Hamels- and that came when Hamels was better than he is now. Oakland has a really deep lineup and I expect their offense to continue to be very good. 

Triggs is a decent starter for the A's and in 31 plate appearances against him, Rangers hitters have only two hits. That's a small sample size so I didn't read much into it, but Triggs has a deceptive delivery that can take some getting accustomed to.

This price is too cheap for the healthier and better team.

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play on Oakland A's ML* The Boston Red Sox are in a tough spot here. They are in their sixth straight game on the left coast, and they up against an Oakland A's team that has been great in this spot in the past.

Oakland isn't good on the road, but at home against teams from the Eastern time zone- the A's have been fabulous in recent years. It makes sense to me- teams come to the west coast who aren't accustomed to coming there and then play some poor baseball. 

Here's a powerful example of that. The A's are a whopping 64-29 in their last 93 home games against a team with a winning record that is also from the eastern time zone. The ROI on this angle is 35% since 2012. 

Mengden is a quality pitcher and the A's lineup is much better than most realize. The Red Sox are a very good team, but they are definitely due for some regression to the mean overall. Yes, they are coming off being no hit, but I'll go the contrarian way here and take the underdog in this contest. 

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play Under* Johnny Cueto is healthy this year and he is in the middle of a nice comeback season. I don't think he's the same pitcher he was a few years ago, but he isn't as bad as his numbers from last year suggest either. 

Barria is a highly touted prospect for the Angels who has shown good control in the minor leagues. The Giants lineup is a weak one to start with, and they will be without Pence and might be without Buster Posey again here as well.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here, and he has the highest strikes called percentage in the majors in the last five years. He's a big help to the under.

Sunday has been the best under day in the majors overall by a wide margin in the long term, and with a key number of 9 here, I like the value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here, and he's a guy who looks like a new pitcher this year. Pivetta was hurt by a very high HR rate allowed last year, but his minor league numbers were terrific. He appears to be breaking out. Pivetta hasn't just been lucky this year. His advanced statistics all look terrific. 

Trevor Williams has turned into a solid starter for the Pirates, and his ability to keep the ball down with his downward movement on his pitches has been key.

Williams has a career ERA in day games of only 2.62 (4.90 at night). Pivetta has a day ERA of 3.32 (7.02 at night). 

The under is 6-0 in Williams last 6 road starts. The under is 6-0 in Williams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 Sunday starts. The under is 3-0-2 in the Phillies last 5 home games. The under is 3-0-1 in Pivetta's last 4 starts. The under is 5-0-3 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. A combined 27-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* The St. Louis Cardinals lineup is extremely deep. With guys like Bader and DeJong hitting at the bottom of the order, this is the kind of lineup that is going to intimidate a lot of pitchers this season.

Homer Bailey has some awful numbers against the Cardinals in his career. How bad? Bailey has a 5.75 ERA in 24 starts against the Cardinals in his career. He has a 6.00 career ERA when pitching at St. Louis. The current Cardinals lineup owns a ridiculously high .463 weighted on base average against Bailey. That is in a pretty large sample size of 162 plate appearances. 

The Reds are in terrible shape right now. Cincinnati has the worst bullpen in the majors right now, so if Bailey exits early again here it doesn't bode well for the Reds.

Carlos Martinez has been solid so far this year, and the Cardinals bullpen gives them a huge advantage in relief pitching against the Reds.

The Reds have already lost 16 games this year, and 12 of them have been by 2 runs or more. The Cardinals have defeated the Reds by 2 runs or more in 8 of their last 11 meetings with the Reds. 

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night. The Reds start Brandon Finnegan here, and Finnegan hasn't shown any positive signs so far this year.

The Cardinals crushed him last week in Cincinnati. Finnegan walked 4 in just 4 and 1/3 innings in that game. Finnegan couldn't throw strikes in his minor league rehab assignment in Triple A either. Finnegan threw only 53 of 98 pitches for a strike in that game. 

The Cardinals haven't only crushed Finnegan in one game. St. Louis' lineup has an amazing .473 weighted on base average against Finnegan in 82 plate appearances. They have hit 7 home runs and walked 13 times.

The Cardinals are a perfect 11-0 in Michael Wacha's last 11 starts against the Reds. 

Cincinnati made a managerial change on Thursday. The Reds will play better than they have so far this year (they can't play worse) on the whole, but this is a tough matchup for them. The Cardinals have beaten them 9 of the last 10. Six of their nine wins during that time have come by at least three runs, so they have dominated the Reds. 

The Reds have lost 15 games this year and 11 of those losses have been by two runs or more.

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense has started the season on fire, but I don't expect them to be able to keep it up. Several guys in this lineup are hitting far above their career highs, and I expect regression to the mean. The Pirates will come back to the pack. 

Jameson Taillon is a guy I'm very high on though. Taillon has always been a guy with great control all the way up through the minors and in his time in the bigs so far. Taillon is excellent at inducing weak contact as well, which can minimize damage nicely in most situations.

Jake Arrieta obviously has a high upside as well. He hasn't been great so far this year, but he is very capable. 

The weather is a big factor here. Temperatures around 40 degrees with wind blowing in about 15 mph make the under a nice value in my opinion. These early season unders with the wind blowing in on cold days have been great to bettors in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night at Chase Field. This is no longer one of the best hitters parks in the majors. The humidor put in place here has significantly slowed down the scoring here. It will take some time for bettors to get accustomed to Chase Field not being a great hitters park.

Robbie Ray has had bad career numbers at Chase Field, but that was before the humidor. He faces a light hitting Giants team today, and the Giants are likely to be without Evan Longoria. 

Jake Lamb is out for Arizona and he is a key bat in the middle of the lineup. Chris Stratton has pitched really well, and he has been a highly rated prospect in the past. He seems to be coming into his own.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here, and Cuzzi has seen 55.1% of games in his career behind the plate stay under the total. His strikes called percentage are always among the top 10 umpires in the league.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's offense is still underrated. The depth of this offense is much better than it has been in recent season. Oakland has Stephen Piscotty and Johnathan Lucroy batting eighth and ninth in the order, which shows you how deep this lineup truly is right now. 

Oakland has scored at least 8 runs by themselves in four of their last six games. The A's are rolling offensively, and now they face a young righty in Carson Fulmer who walks a bunch of people. That makes him prone to the big inning. Fulmer has a lot of potential, but he's likely to struggle this year. 

Triggs has been pretty good for the A's so far this year, but I see him as about a league average pitcher. The White Sox offense isn't great, but they are good enough to create some scoring chances.

Both bullpens are bad. I see both as bottom 10 in baseball when it comes to bullpens. There should be scoring chances late.

Mark Wegner is a great over umpire and he's behind the dish here. His strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio consistently make him one of the best over umpires in the business.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's offense is far better this year than it has been in recent years. From top to bottom, this is a lineup that doesn't really have any weaknesses. Oakland ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average. The A's have been really high scoring this year, and their pitching staff isn't very good either. In Oakland's 16 games this year, in 7 of them one team has scored at least 7 runs. 

The White Sox have been inconsistent on offense this year. They do have a lot of quality hitters who are bound to improve in the coming weeks. Guys like Moncada, Davidson, and Abreu are better hitters than they have shown so far this year.

Miguel Gonzalez has lost 2 mph off his fastball, and his swinging strike rate is at a career low of 6.6%. His hard hit allowed rate is also at a career high.

Trevor Cahill walks far too many batters, and he isn't likely to get very deep into the game. The A's middle relief is a weakness.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* The price here is too much for me to pass up. Junior Guerra is a far below average right handed starter, and the Brewers are badly banged up. The Brewers are without Yelich, Pina, and Knebel. Both Ryan Braun and Eric Thames are questionable here.

The Reds are a bad team, but that is more than priced into this one. The Reds are also coming off a win. Taking underdogs inside the division who are off a big win has been a really strong system over the years. The Reds offense is better than they have shown in the early going, and they have torched Guerra in their limited sample size against him.

The public is all over the Brewers here. Taking an underdog receiving less than 30% of the bets and coming off a win, and also playing a team with a .500 or worse record is +11.7% ROI in the last 15 years in Major League Baseball. The Reds fit that system today. 

Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers host the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday night. Andrew Cashner takes on Francisco Liriano. With the way these two guys are pitching at this stage in their careers, this total is too low. 

Cashner has managed to get outs in some really strange ways the last couple years. Cashner had a 3.40 ERA last year, but his FIP and xFIP were 4.61 and 5.30. He got very lucky. In two starts this year, he has a 2.50 ERA with a 5.67 FIP and a 4.79 xFIP. His swinging strike rate is so low that he is reliant on batters hitting it at fielders, and I don't expect that to continue at the rate it has.

Speaking of swinging strike rates- Francisco Liriano routinely had swinging strike rates of 13.5% or better for several years, but it dropped all the way to 9.6% last year. So far this year it is only 6.8%. Liriano has always had control problems, so not being able to strike out nearly as many is a big problem for him.

The Orioles offense is bad in general, but they are 12th in wOBA against lefties. The Tigers offense isn't as bad as they have looked so far this year.

The wind here is blowing out about 15 mph, and Comerica is a park where wind blowing out has made a huge difference in the past.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Houston Astros played on Sunday night baseball last night at home, and they definitely got in very late to Seattle. Houston is in a difficult spot here. 

Seattle played a day game at home yesterday, so they are much more rested than Houston in this spot. 

Dallas Keuchel is an elite pitcher at home. On the road, Keuchel is only mediocre. In his career, he has a 2.93 ERA at home and a 4.45 ERA on the road. His WHIP is only 1.13 at home and it is 1.371 on the road. Dallas Keuchel's teams are 19-21 when he starts on the road as a moneyline favorite in his career.

James Paxton has high level stuff and he is capable of shutting down any lineup. The Astros lineup hasn't been very consistent in the early going this year. 

We've seen reverse line movement early on this underdog, and I think that makes sense. 

The Astros are 1-4 in Keuchel's last 5 road starts. The Mariners are 6-2 in Paxton's last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* Early money went against the Rockies here, and I'll fade this move. Nolan Arenado isn't playing here due to suspension, and I assume that is why the line has gone the way it has. Arenado is a good player, but the Rockies have plenty of other guys on this roster who are quality players. This is an overreaction. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a team I'll look to go against when I can in the coming weeks. They aren't as good as their 11-4 record would indicate. The Pirates will come back to the pack, but for now the betting markets are high on Pittsburgh.

Colorado is good against lefties. They ranked 3rd in wOBA against lefties last year, and they have been much better against lefties than righties this year again. Brault is a youngster with potential, but his advanced stats suggest he has been fairly lucky so far this season.

German Marquez has good stuff, and he is backed by a very underrated Rockies bullpen.

I think this is a 50/50 game, and the odds aren't suggesting that.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw on Sunday afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are off to a slow start to the season, and this is a big game for them against a hot Arizona team. I don't have to tell you how dominant Clayton Kershaw has been over the years, and his numbers against the Diamondbacks are very good.

Zack Godley has turned into a really nice pitcher for Arizona. He has a 0.64 ERA and an impressive 1.55 FIP through two starts. He throws hard and has good movement on multiple pitches. 

The under is 4-0 in Godley's last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 during game 3 of a series. The under is 6-0 in Kershaw's last 6 starts on six days of rest. A combined 14-0 angle. 

The Diamondbacks weren't very good against lefties last year, and the Dodgers offense has struggled without Justin Turner. 

Expect a low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Tampa Bay has scored 2 runs or less six times already this year. The Rays lack any reliable hitter to contribute in the middle of the order. 

The Philadelphia Phillies offense has been good so far this year, but they haven't exactly faced tremendous pitching staffs thus far. While I think the Phillies offense is pretty good, I think their numbers are overvalued offensively right now.

In Velasquez and Faria we have two young pitchers with a lot of talent. Velasquez had a terrible outing against the Braves in his first start, but a closer look there shows it was some terrible luck. Braves hitters had a batting average on balls in play of .643 (around .300 is average) in that one. Velasquez has a 5.19 ERA, but his FIP is 1.78. 

Faria was crushed by the Red Sox in his last outing, and both of his starts so far this year have been against Boston. The Red Sox have one of the best offenses in baseball, and they'll make a lot of pitchers look bad this year. 

The under is 25-9 in the Rays last 34 home games. The under is 4-1 in Faria's last 5 home starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins start Jose Berrios here. Berrios broke out in a big way with a great season last year, and his stuff is elite. Berrios has held White Sox hitters to a .132 batting average in 68 at bats. He has tremendous strikeout stuff. Berrios has a 3.29 ERA through two games this season, but his FIP is only 2.27 and his SIERA is 2.71. He's pitched well.

Lucas Giolito has loads of potential. His consistency hasn't been very good yet, but I think he could experience a big breakout season this year like Berrios did a year ago. He has good command of several pitches, and there is lots of movement on all of his pitches.

The weather is a big factor here. The temperature will be in the low 40's with wind blowing in at 8-10 mph. In the past 10 years, in the first month of the season in MLB with winds blowing in at 7 mph or greater and a temperature of 59 degrees or colder the under is hitting 63% of the time. This game fits that system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The Boston Red Sox start Rick Porcello here, and I'm not high on him. His numbers through two starts look pretty good, but most people's numbers would look good if both of their starts were against the Tampa Bay Rays offense. Porcello is just a middle of the road pitcher, and he's up against a solid Yankees offense.

Sonny Gray's swinging strike rate hit a new high last year, and through two games it is above 13% this year. That's a great sign, and when Gray is in a rhythm he can really mow down a lineup. Gray has a 3.60 ERA on the year, but his FIP is only 2.10. 

The Yankees clearly have the better bullpen here. The Red Sox are without Pedroia and Boegarts, and those are two big losses. 

Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Play on St. Louis Cardinals* The St. Louis Cardinals have gotten off to a bit of a slow start, but this is a team with a very good lineup. The Cardinals have Michael Wacha on the mound for this one. Wacha has been shaky so far this year, but his long term results against the Reds are tremendous. He has better numbers against Cincinnati than any other team in baseball.

The Cardinals are 11-1 in Wacha's last 12 starts against the Reds. Wacha has a 2.85 ERA in 88 and 1/3 innings against the Reds. In Cincinnati, Wacha has a 2.20 ERA in 41 innings. 

Sal Romano pitches for the Reds here, and he is a below average big league pitcher at this point in his career. He has more walks than strikeouts so far this year, and he doesn't have any single great out pitch.

The Cardinals are a better team than the Reds, and this is a discounted price.

Take St. Louis. 

*4 Star Play on Angels ML* Getting this kind of price on the Angels against Matt Moore was unexpected. Matt Moore had a 5.52 ERA last year and that was with a home park of AT&T Park in San Francisco. Wow. Moore now moves to Texas to pitch in a very hitter-friendly park. I don't think this is going to go well at all.

More than half of batted balls against Moore so far this year have been classified as hard hit by fangraphs. The league average is less than 33%. Moore isn't fooling anyone. His velocity is the lowest of his career thus far as well.

This Angels lineup is looking very good in the early going, and the Angels have a big bullpen advantage here.

Barria is a pretty highly rated prospect for the Angels and his command of multiple pitches is solid.

This is primarily a fade of Matt Moore, but I'm also low on the Rangers in general.

Take the Angels. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rays are having a "Bullpen Day" and starting Chirinos here. The Rays bullpen doesn't have very good depth, and that should show itself over time. On the other side, the White Sox start James Shields who I consider one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Shields velocity is down 3 mph from a few years ago, and he isn't getting any swinging strikes or strikeouts. Even a poor offense like the Rays should be able to get to him. The White Sox bullpen isn't good either.

The wind is blowing out and it is a much milder temperature today in Chicago as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Twins ML* I don't like to make a habit of fading the Houston Astros, but this price has me on the Twins. Lance McCullers is a completely different pitcher on the road. 

McCullers has a 2.42 ERA at home in his career. He has a 4.92 ERA on the road. His WHIP at home is only 1.194 compared to 1.462 on the road. He'll be up against a quality lineup in the Twins on Wednesday afternoon.

Kyle Gibson isn't the reason I'm making this pick. He's a guy who can either be awesome or just awful. The Twins have given him great run support though, and Gibson has held the Astros lineup to a batting average below .200. 

The Twins are 11-1 in Gibson's last 12 starts. McCullers is mediocre or worse on the road and is laying a huge price.

Houston has remarked multiple times in the press the last two days about hating this cold weather and wanting to get back home.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play on Diamondbacks ML* The Arizona Diamondbacks were undervalued coming into the season. Patrick Corbin is a guy I expect to be a lot better than he was last year. He has decided to start using his slider (his best pitch), far more often. This is the type of thing Lance McCullers Jr. did with his curveball. Less of setting things up with a quick fastball or two, and more of just throwing the nasty slider. I like this change from Corbin.

Tyler Beede makes his MLB debut here. Beede had a 4.79 ERA and a 5.02 FIP in Triple A last year. Those aren't the kind of numbers that usually bring success in the big leagues. He does have some upside, but I will be surprised if he dominates right from the start.

The Giants are 5-21 in their last 26 games against a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. Corbin is undervalued here.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are going to be one of the worst offenses in baseball this year. Miami has scored 2 runs or less in four of their last five games. The Marlins have hit lefties pretty well so far this year, but they have been dreadful (.203 average) against right handed pitching.

Jacob Degrom is a very solid right handed pitcher. Degrom has pitched much better in the first half of the season in his career than the second half. Degrom's jump in swinging strike rate in the past year suggests to me that he is pointing toward even better things ahead.

Caleb Smith has good strikeout stuff, but he has struggled with walks. The Mets have a lineup that should be better against right handed pitching than lefties this year, and Smith is a lefty.

DJ Reyburn is the umpire here, and he is a good under umpire. In Reyburn's career, the under is 118-92 in his games behind the dish. He'll help both pitchers on the corners.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Atlanta Braves ML* I can't pass up this price on the Braves. Atlanta's lineup has impressed me so far this year. They were shutdown by Max Scherzer last night. Though Stephen Strasburg is very good, he hasn't proven to be on a Scherzer type level yet in his career. 

Strasburg has some pretty bad numbers against Atlanta in his career as well. Strasburg has a career 4.06 ERA in 24 starts against the Braves. The Nationals are only 3-8 in Strasburg's last 11 home starts against Atlanta. Freddie Freeman has absolutely ripped Strasburg in a large sample size.

Mike Foltynewicz has potential. He isn't consistent, and there is definitely a chance he gets torched here, but that is far more than factored into the price.

Divisional underdogs early in the season have been strong bets in the past 15 years. Though the Braves deserve to be a decent sized dog here, this is too much.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Monday CASH* The Baltimore Orioles start Dylan Bundy here. Bundy was superb early in the season last year. He is also much better at home than on the road. Bundy has a nice 1.129 WHIP at home, but an ugly 1.429 WHIP on the road. Bundy has a remarkable 1.48 ERA in March/April in his career.

Bundy has also been great against Toronto in his career thus far. He has thrown 23 and 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays and allowed only 2 runs. That's a 0.76 ERA. 

J.A. Happ has a 1.393 WHIP in the first half of the season vs. a 1.271 WHIP in the second half of the year. Happ is a guy that isn't likely to be able to match his numbers from a couple years ago anymore.

The Orioles aren't a great team by any means, but they have been much better on their home field than on the road under Showalter in recent seasons. 

The Orioles are 6-2 in Bundy's last 8 home starts. A solid price on the Orioles with their best starter going at home here.

Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* The New York Mets have won the first two in this series. Here is a line that is inflated due to the "they can't sweep them" theory that most bettors have. There is not data that suggests paying up in game three of a series is a wise move in a spot like this.

This line has jumped quickly from the opening, and this is too much for me to pass up. The Nationals deserve to be favored here, but not by this amount.

Matt Harvey still has a high upside and the Nationals lineup definitely misses Daniel Murphy. 

A price grab here.

Take the Mets. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets here in a divisional rivalry. The home plate umpire for this game is Mark Ripperger and he is one of the best under umpires in the majors. His strike zone will benefit the pitchers quite a bit through this contest.

The weather is a huge factor. With temperatures dropping in the low 40's during the game, and winds of 10-12 mph blowing in, this is a great spot for an under.

There is a strong weather angle that this game fits: In the first 20 games of the season when the temperature is 58 degrees or lower and the wind is blowing in at least 8 mph and the total is 7.5 or higher- the under is a whopping 120-64 (65.2%).

Both bullpens are good and I think this is a good price on the under given the umpire draw and the weather.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Indians lineup isn't producing right now. They'll be much better over the course of the season, but the conditions in Cleveland right now aren't helping at all. The temperature is expected to be about 30 degrees at time of first pitch here and the wind blowing in at 10 mph. 

The first two games in this series have had similar weather, and those games were 3-2 and 1-0. 

Mike Clevinger has been an underrated piece for the Indians. The Royals lineup will be one of the worst in the majors this year.

The under is 45-22-3 in the Indians last 72 games vs. an AL Central foe. The under is 20-7-1 in Clevinger's last 28 starts.

Ted Barrett is behind the plate and he is a bit of an under umpire as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* Rick Porcello isn't a guy I trust at all right now. Porcello is admittedly facing a very weak Tampa Bay lineup, but that is more than factored into this line. Porcello is a rare pitcher who has done quite a bit better on the road than at home in his career. Last year, he had a 5.43 ERA in 19 starts at Fenway Park. His WHIP was 1.34 in those starts. 

Jake Faria threw 13 innings against Boston last year and allowed a total of two runs. Faria had a 3.43 ERA in his rookie season last year. Faria has a nice upside, and I see him as the better of the two starting pitchers here.

This will be a contrarian play and I'm ok with that. The Rays have started slowly and the Red Sox have started fast. 

The Red Sox will win a game like this more than half the time, but at these odds I have to take a chance with the Rays. I think this one should be priced around +125 or +130. That's too much of a difference to pass up.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets early Saturday afternoon in a game that will be played in conditions that clearly favor the under. The wind will be blowing in about 12 mph during this game and the temperature will be in the low 40's. In past years, wind in during cold games has been a great moneymaker early in the season. It has started out the same way this year.

Steven Matz has allowed zero runs in 15 innings pitched in Washington. Matz is coming off a bad start, but I do believe he is at least a decent starter, and these conditions should help. Matz has a great 3.10 ERA in the first half of the season during his career.

Gio Gonzalez has a career 3.47 ERA in the first half. Gonzalez has a great 2.93 ERA against the Mets in 23 starts. 

Marty Foster is the home plate umpire here and in his career behind home plate, the under is hitting at a 54.3% clip. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I see Luis Perdomo as a solid sinker-baller who can keep the ball in the park and induce a lot of double play balls. Perdomo fell victim to some terrible luck in his first outing. He allowed a batting average on balls in play of .583. After the game his ERA sits at 11.25 with his FIP at only 2.46. 

Lance McCullers Jr. is an elite pitcher when pitching at home. In his career when pitching at home, McCullers has a ridiculous 2.39 ERA. His ERA is 3.09 overall in the first half of the season in his career as well.

The Astros bullpen is top three or four in the majors. I see the Padres bullpen as better than league average.

I think this one is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* Tyler Anderson starts for the Rockies here. Anderson has been awful early in the season during his career. How bad? Anderson has a whopping 9.09 ERA in 32 and 2/3 innings in March/April during his career. He has a WHIP of 1.745 during that time as well.

Anderson has been much better at Coors Field than on the road, which makes little sense, but the splits are drastic. Anderson has a 3.39 ERA at Coors Field and a terribly 5.72 ERA on the road in his career.

Joey Luchessi starts for San Diego here. Luchessi is a young lefty who uses a deceptive delivery to make it tough for hitters to get comfortable against him. I think he can be a solid pitcher for this Padres team.

The Rockies are 0-4 in Anderson's last 4 road starts. I'll take the home team here.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Over* The weather should be a big factor here. Temperatures are chilly, but the wind is howling out to center field. Winds of 20 mph at a minimum are expected to be going all through the contest.

The Twins offense is very solid from top to bottom. I don't see any big weaknesses here. Minnesota should score a lot of runs this year.

Pittsburgh should get a better season out of Polanco this year, and they have some decent young hitters in this lineup.

Ivan Nova and Jake Odorizzi are both pitchers I rate as lower than the league average. Nova is a pitch to contact guy, and Odorizzi  has given up a ton of home runs in the last couple years. 

Both of these bullpens are league average or slightly below on the whole. There should be scoring chances late here as well.

At this low number with the weather- I'm on the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Cleveland Indians ML* The Cleveland Indians are definitely still one of the top teams in the majors. Anytime I can get one of the top teams in the majors at a big plus price when they are not going against an elite pitcher I have to give it a long look. Garrett Richards has shown promise in his career, but he hasn't shown consistency. The market has priced this one as if a top of the line starter is going for the Angels here.

The Indians are 22-8 in their last 30 vs. the Angels. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games in Los Angeles. The Indians have a big bullpen edge here.

Josh Tomlin isn't a great pitcher, but he has given his team a chance to win over the last few years. 

The Indians are 37-18 in their last 55 road games.

I'll take the underdog here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox were 9th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties last year. They weren't any good against right handed pitching, but the White Sox were underrated against lefties in the marketplace last year.

Miguel Gonzalez has been an average big league pitcher during his career and for several years he has been slightly above average. That's better than many perceive him as being. Gonzalez has allowed this Blue Jays lineup to hit only .179 against him in 87 plate appearances. 

The Blue Jays have potential, but they aren't a top 5 team in the big leagues like they are priced here. They are overpriced at this level.

The oddsmakers suggest that the White Sox will win less than 37% of the time in this spot. That's too low.

A pure price play.

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Arizona Diamondbacks have a strong lineup against left handed pitching. They are patient at the plate against lefties and they have some impressive power hitters against left handed pitching.

Arizona is 14-5 in their last 19 vs. a left handed starter. They are 20-6 in their last 26 home games vs. a lefty. 

Hyun Jin Ryu is 1-10 in his last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 4-11 in his last 15 road starts.

Taijuan Walker still has upside potential thanks to his high level stuff. Justin Turner's absence hurts the Dodgers lineup quite a bit, especially since he has been their most consistent bat in high leverage situations.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* Ian Kennedy had a 6.46 ERA at home last year. Kennedy is definitely on the decline overall, and his numbers against the White Sox have been bad in recent years. The White Sox scored 17 earned runs in 20 innings against Kennedy last year.

Kennedy has been a slow starter throughout his career. His first half ERA is 4.34 in his career. In the second half, he has a solid 3.75 ERA. 

Lucas Giolito was the White Sox best pitcher in Spring Training. Giolito is still a guy who was really highly touted and has multiple plus pitches. At the end of last year, he appeared to be on the right track.

The Royals might have the worst bullpen in baseball. Kansas City is also without star catcher Salvador Perez.

The White Sox lineup is improved, and I think they should be a clear favorite here. 

Take the Chicago White Sox.

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* I believe the Phillies are a better team than the Braves. Early in the season, underdogs have had a great amount of value. That value has been even larger in early games between divisional foes.

Vince Velasquez has plenty of ability. Velasquez is healthier starting this season than he was last year. He has good swing and miss stuff, and the Braves are a team who will strike out quite a bit this year.

Brandon McCarthy isn't a bad pitcher, but I think he'll likely slip a bit from last year's numbers. He's backed by a poor bullpen here as well.

The Phillies lineup is better from top to bottom, and I'll take the plus money price here.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros on Friday night. While this is a hitter's ballpark overall, this park plays a lot different with cooler weather and wind blowing in.

The under is a whopping 54-26-7 in the last 87 games in Texas' home games with a temperature of 83 degrees or cooler and wind blowing in from center field. It is expected to be 64 degrees with wind blowing in during this game.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and by record he has been the single best under umpire in the bigs in the last few years. In his career, the under is 57.3% in Kulpa's games behind the plate.

Keuchel is healthy and set for a great year for the Astros. Fister had a decent season last year for the Red Sox and should be helped by Kulpa being behind the dish.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* Nick Pivetta's overall profile looks like a pitcher who should get some positive regression this year. He certainly isn't anything tremendous, but neither is Mike Foltynewicz. 

The Phillies made themselves quite a bit better in the offseason. Carlos Santana's ability to get on base should really help this lineup. 

Freddie Freeman is a great hitter in the middle of the Braves order, but the rest of the lineup around him isn't very good. The Phillies have a more balanced lineup.

While they didn't show it in game one, I think this Phillies bullpen is a little better than the Braves bullpen. 

In the early going- underdogs have significant value based on all the long-term trends. Here's a dog who I think would win this game at least 50% of the time.

Take the Phillies. 

*3 Star MLB Opening Day Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw here. Kershaw is amazing against everyone, but he's at his absolute best against the Giants. 

Kershaw has a ridiculous 1.60 ERA in 41 games against the Giants. That's 297 and 1/3 innings of domination. I don't see any reason to believe Kershaw will be any less dominant here. Backing Kershaw is a top five bullpen for the Dodgers.

Ty Blach has been great against NL West teams. Blach has allowed only a .286 weighted on base average (wOBA) against the Dodgers. The Dodgers offense is without Justin Turner due to injury, and that's a huge loss in the middle of the order.

The under is 11-1 in Blach's last 12 games against an NL West foe. The under is 23-7-2 in Kershaw's last 32 games started against the Giants.

Take the under. 

*3 Star World Series Game 5 Totals MONEY* The Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound here. Kershaw was great in game one and I expect another terrific effort from him. Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball for years now and I like his chances to prove himself in a huge game here. Kershaw has held Houston hitters to a .255 wOBA in his career. 

Dallas Keuchel is a different pitcher at home. His ERA at home in his career 2.94. Batters are hitting only .227 against him at home.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is my single favorite under umpire in the bigs. Miller loves to call strikes, and his strike three calls often get batters upset. He is a pitcher's best friend, and we have two tremendous pitchers who can paint the corners here.

The under is 42-29 in Keuchel's home starts in his career. The under is 74-57 in Kershaw's road starts. The under is a whopping 30-8 in Kershaw's 38 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB World Series Game 3 CASH* The Houston Astros picked up a really nice win in LA in Game Two. They were able to get to Kenley Jansen and the Dodgers bullpen. Still, this Dodgers bullpen has been the best bullpen in baseball all year. The Dodgers still have a big advantage in the bullpen.

Yu Darvish has been amazing in his last few starts. Darvish has been great against this Astros lineup in his career too. In 157 at bats, the Astros have a .197 average and a .250 weighted on base average against Darvish. 

Lance McCullers has great stuff too, but I don't understand him being this big of a favorite here. The DH rule doesn't help the Astros as it normally would help an American League team. The Dodgers have all kinds of depth in their lineup.

The Dodgers are 77-35 in their last 112 games. Getting this quality of a team at this big of an underdog price is too much to pass.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play on the Dodgers* Yu Darvish has been throwing the ball really well of late. Darvish has allowed a grand total of 3 runs in his last four starts. He has 2 walks and 28 strikeouts during that time. Darvish changes speeds as good as anyone in the game. 

The Cubs strike out at the 11th highest rate of any team in baseball. Darvish has elite swing and miss stuff. I think he is a tough matchup for this Cubs lineup.

Kyle Hendricks throws a lot of changeups, and his fastball doesn't have much velocity. Hendricks faces a Dodgers lineup that hits changeups very well. This Dodgers lineup is deep even without Seager. I see Hendricks having to try to work out of jams pretty often here. 

The Dodgers bullpen is the best in the NL by a wide margin. The Cubs bullpen is overworked and they aren't very good to begin with.

I'll grab the plus money price here.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star MLB Astros/Yankees Moneyline CASH* The Houston Astros are 54-29 on the road this year. Houston knows how to win away from home. 

Houston's lineup is stacked. Let's take a look at the Astros offensive numbers on the road this year. Houston as a team has a .351 OBP, and the second best team is at .336. The Astros are striking out at a rate of only 17.9%, which is the lowest in the majors.

C.C. Sabathia is a mediocre pitcher at this stage of his career. I waited this line move out because the public clearly wants to take the Yankees, but I have to grab this price now on the underdog. Sabathia isn't likely to get through this Astros lineup without quite a few problems. 

In the past ten years, taking teams that are getting less than 50% of the public bets in the game and are underdogs of +101 to +133 in the postseason against a team with a win percentage of 50% to 62% is an impressive 95-68 for an ROI of 27%.

A price play here. 

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Yankees/Indians Game 5 CASH* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber in this one. Kluber is coming off a bad start, but before that start he was on a run that no pitcher could match all season. Kluber has been extremely dominant this year. I'm not going to let one start ruin my opinion of him. Kluber had a ridiculous 15.6% swinging strike rate during the season. He allowed less than 1 home run per nine innings. 

Kluber has a great history against the Yankees overall even with this last start being a bad one. The Yankees lineup has combined to hit .184 against him. 

C.C. Sabathia has been pretty good this year. I'm also encouraged by the fact that Sonny Gray could pitch in long relief here, and all of the Yankees bullpen arms are well rested. 

Both teams will use their bullpens at the first signs of trouble here, and these are the two best bullpens in the American League. That's a large reason for this bet. 

The wind will be blowing in from right field here and the temperature will be cool. The conditions favor the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Monday Late Night MONEY* The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers meet at Chase Field on Monday night. Arizona has to win this one to stay alive. They'll start their ace Zack Greinke here. 

Greinke was amazing at home all year. He had a 2.87 ERA and allowed a batting average of only .207 at home this season. He didn't pitch well in his last couple starts, but he has decent numbers against the Dodgers, and I see him pitching well with his back against the wall in this spot.

Yu Darvish has been great down the stretch this year, and in 63 plate appearances the DBacks hitters have a miserable .190 average against him. That's a small sample size, but Darvish has great stuff and is well rested.

Chase Field's roof status isn't yet available. If it is open here, the wind will be blowing in 15 mph. Expect both teams to use their best relievers in this spot, which certainly helps.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cleveland Indians ML* This wasn't a game I expected to pick, but this line is out of control. How can the Yankees be -161 here? 

Luis Severino is a very good pitcher, but he's still a youngster that has to prove he can perform under the bright lights in the playoffs. This is an excellent Indians lineup he has to face.

Trevor Bauer pitched great in game one, and down the stretch of the season he has been very consistently good. I expect the Indians bullpen to be all available here, and the Yankees have a bit of a question mark with Chapman since he threw so many pitches yesterday. 

I think New York should be favored here, but this price is too high to pass on.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros had the top offense in baseball all year long. This Houston offense is the real deal. Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman, and the rest of the bunch are so good. 

I certainly don't trust Doug Fister to get this Astros lineup out on a consistent basis. Fister has below average stuff and I think there's a good chance he won't get very deep into this one.

The Boston Red Sox offense has been better at home. Boston faces Brad Peacock here. He was good this year, but he is inconsistent. He is relatively wild, and Boston should make him work.

A big key here is the weather. Winds of 15 mph blowing out to center field and left field are expected here. That brings this system into play: on a total of 9.5 or lower with wind blowing out at 5 mph or greater and a temperature of 50 degrees or warmer the over is 81-50 (62% overs) in the last ten years in the postseason.

I think both teams get a lot of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Playoff Totals SMASHER* The Cleveland Indians host the New York Yankees in what should be a really exciting series. The temperature will be fairly moderate in this one and the wind will be blowing in at about 5 mph from left field. 

Vic Carapazza is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. He rates as one of the top five under umpires in the majors in my umpire ratings. He will both help pitchers in this one.

Trevor Bauer really pitched well this year. He has a 3.88 FIP and a 3.60 xFIP. Bauer has only allowed 2 homers against this Yankees lineup in 160 plate appearances. He has allowed a solid .305 wOBA. 

Sonny Gray has great numbers against the Indians lineup. In 196 plate appearances, the Indians have a very low .273 wOBA against him. Gray has great stuff and I think he'll pitch well here.

These are the two best bullpens in the American League. That's very important in the playoffs. Both managers will be quicker to use their top relievers more often and stretch them out.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Super System* Blake Snell has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 7 games. Kevin Gausman is coming off a bad start, but he has been very good overall in the last couple months. I expect both teams to have some key bats out of the lineup or pulled during the game here. 

The final day of the season is a great under day in MLB by the numbers. It makes sense because players and umpires are ready to head home. Quicker innings with more first pitch swings and called strikes are the norm.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Brault is a young prospect for the Pirates who has pitched well in a small sample size. He's a guy with a high upside, and the Pirates are really high on him.

Gio Gonzalez has been very good this year. Gonzalez has given up a lot of soft contact, and he's been good at getting out of jams with ground balls or strikeouts.

The final game of the regular season has been a big under day in the past. How big? Since 2008, the under is 51-25 (67.1%) when the posted total is 8 runs or higher.

The under is 7-0 in the Pirates last 7 Sunday games. The under is 6-0-2 in the Pirates last 8 vs. the NL East. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0-1 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 vs. the NL Central. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Washington. A 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The final day of the regular season has been a great day to play unders in the past several years. It makes sense to me. Players are ready to go home after a long season. That is especially true for bad teams. These are two really bad teams with zero to play for in this one. 

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests. 

This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

*4 Star MLB 100% System Play SMASHER*

Luis Perdomo has a 3.55 ERA against the Giants in his career. Johnny Cueto has held the Padres lineup to a miserable .184 batting average. Cueto is at his best in day games, and he faces a very weak lineup in this one.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's have a key bat missing in Olson (injury) and Adrian Beltre is expected to be out for the Rangers. Mengden has pitched better late in the season. Cole Hamels is generally at his best in the last month of the year.

The final day of the season is a great under day in MLB by the numbers. It makes sense because players and umpires are ready to head home. Quicker innings with more first pitch swings and called strikes are the norm.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I had to wait for the lineups and the umpire here, but when all that information came out, it confirmed my initial lean.

Tampa Bay is sitting out Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier, and Lucas Duda here. The Orioles are without both Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo. There are some very questionable hitters in both of these lineups.

The home plate umpire here is Vic Carrapazza. He is one of the best under umpires in the league. He'll help both of these guys who typically struggle with walks.

Unders do very well in the last weekend of the MLB regular season. Teams under .500 against each other are 60% to the under in the last ten years when the total is 9 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Atlanta Braves take on the New York Mets here. Sean Newcomb takes the mound for the Braves. Newcomb is a guy with a fairly high upside, and the Mets have struggled of late against lefties. It's no surprise, since the Mets are without almost all of their best hitters from the start of the year.

This game fits a late season totals (under) trend. Both teams are out of the playoff contention and we'll see a lot of new faces in the lineup here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Toronto* The Toronto Blue Jays have won the first two games of this series. Toronto is definitely playing hard to the finish, and the Red Sox have far more pressure on them.

The key to this one for me is Toronto starting Marco Estrada. Estrada was awful early in the year, but he has turned things around nicely of late. Estrada has allowed 5 runs in his last four starts combined. Estrada also has a great track record against Boston. This Red Sox lineup has a miserable .162 average against him in a huge sample size of 202 at bats.

Rick Porcello has been mediocre or worse this year. The Red Sox are 4-12 in Porcello's last 16 starts vs. the AL East. The Red Sox are 2-5 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chase Field is a great place for hitters with the roof open. In the past ten years, the over is 56% at Chase Field when the roof is open and the total is 9.5 or lower. That number is above 60% in the past two years alone.

Matt Moore and Robbie Ray are two lefties who give up a bunch of hard contact. Moore has a 6.51 ERA on the road this year, and he's facing a DBacks team that should have all its regulars back for Tuesday's contest. This team has some tremendous power hitters against lefties. Moore has allowed 26 homers this year.

Robbie Ray is certainly a good pitcher, but his home/road splits are very interesting. Ray has a 4.37 ERA at home this year vs. a road ERA of 1.79. Last year, he had a 5.36 ERA at home. He struggles at Chase Field more often than not.

At a good price on a key number, I'll take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles are going to miss the playoffs this year. The Pittsburgh Pirates are out of the playoffs as well. 

I ran some extensive queries on the last week of the regular season in baseball and found that two teams who are out of the playoff race usually equates to value on the under in the last few games of the season.

From game 156 of the season (162 game season), the under is hitting 61.2% in the last ten years when both teams have won 50% of their games or less and the total is at least 7 runs. This one fits that angle.

Williams has pitched great at home all season. He is good at keeping the ball in the yard with his sinker, and the Orioles rely on homers quite a bit. 

The Pirates offense is a mess right now, and Kevin Gausman has been very good late in the season.

The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 interleague road games. The under is 8-0 in Williams last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record. A 12-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies battle on Monday Night

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians send Corey Kluber to the hill on Sunday. It's hard to put into words how amazing he has been since June 1. Kluber has allowed 2 runs or less in 17 of his last 21 starts. Most impressive to me is his strikeout/walk ratio of late. Kluber has allowed only 3 walks in his last six games. During that span, he has 56 strikeouts. Amazing stuff. 

Mike Leake has been very good for Seattle since coming over in a trade. Leake has a FIP of 2.45 or lower in each of his four starts with Seattle. Leake has allowed only a .219 wOBA against the Indians lineup in a decent sample size. 

What about Kluber against the Mariners? In a huge sample size, the Mariners has a wOBA of .282 against Kluber.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on DBacks -1.5* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zack Greinke here. Greinke has been lights out at home this year. Greinke has allowed only a .196 average at home this year. He's been great in general all year, but his best work has come this month. Greinke has a 1.23 ERA this month and opponents are hitting .147 off him this month.

Adam Conley starts for the Marlins and he's been getting torched on a consistent basis of late. Conley has a FIP of 7 or higher in each of his last four starts, so he's been fortunate to not give up more runs. With their acquisitions during the year, the DBacks have gotten much better against left handed pitching.

The DBacks are 22-4 in Greinke's last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. The Dbacks are 13-1 in Greinke's last 14 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. 

The Marlins are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Arizona -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in game one of a series that is vitally important to their playoff hopes. They can still catch the Cubs in the NL Central, but it will take a really hot finish. Otherwise, they'll need to be able to get into position for the NL Wildcard. 

Zach Davies has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts. Davies is coming off a poor start, but I think there's a good chance he bounces back with a solid start here.

Jake Arrieta is dealing with a hamstring injury, and his walk rate has crept up in recent outings. Arrieta isn't 100% healthy right now.

This game fits into a late season underdogs system that has a 23.5% ROI in the past ten seasons.

The team has won 45% or more of their games and is an underdog of +101 to +155. The opposition has a winning percentage of 50% or higher. It is game one or game two of a series. This is hitting at a 55% rate in the last 305 games despite it being an underdog system.

The Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right handed starter. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Milwaukee.  

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The St. Louis Cardinals are right in the middle of a playoff race. St. Louis has to win games like this. Cincinnati doesn't have anything to play for other than pride right now.

I ran a data query to see how teams with a win percentage between 50% and 55% on the year have fared on the run line in the last 15 games of the regular season. Here are the results: when the opposing team has a win percentage of 43% or higher, betting the favorite on the -1.5 line has produced an ROI of 14.7% over the last ten years. The Cardinals fit this system.

In Luke Weaver's last five starts, the Cardinals have won all five by a minimum of three runs. Weaver has allowed a total of 5 runs in those 5 starts. He is dealing right now. He has zero walks and 13 strikeouts in his last two starts. Weaver was highly touted for a long time, and he seems to have gotten it of late. 

The Reds will be without Billy Hamilton and probably Eugenio Suarez as well here.

Rookie Davis was a subpar pitcher in Triple A this year, and I see no reason for us to expect him to pitch well in his second stint in the majors this season (the first didn't go well).

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*4 Star Play Under* By the long term trends, taking the under when two teams are playing that are fighting for a playoff spot late in the season has been a good move. 

From game 147 of the season, when two teams with a win percentage of 50% or higher meet and the total is 8.5 or higher, with the wind blowing in at all, the under is a whopping 64-28 (70% Wins). 

The wind will be howling in from right center field here at 20 to 25 mph. That's a significant wind to where it will be very hard to hit it out of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. It's possible for the big sluggers like Aaron Judge, but there won't be any cheap ones.

Jose Berrios and C.C. Sabathia have both been solid this year, and these two bullpens have been pitching well of late.

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 20-7-2 in Sabathia's last 29 home starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB DOG of the Day* The Philadelphia Phillies have won 5 of their last 7 games. Bad teams who are playing well late in the season have been good to bettors over the long run. There are a few angles I like here.

First, let's look at Yu Darvish. Darvish has pitched worse against bad teams in his career. Since the 2013 season, if you have been fading Darvish and going with the underdog who has won less than 50% of their games, you are 21-19 and up $2,009 as a $100 per game bettor. Fading Darvish as a big favorite has been a great strategy.

Second, during game one and two of a series,  underdogs of +165 or less in game 150 or later going against teams with a win percentage of 55% or higher have delivered an ROI of 18.4% in the last 10 years. The ugly underdogs have been good bets this time of the year. 

Aaron Nola has definite shutdown potential. He's inconsistent, but we're getting a huge price here, and he's very capable of throwing a shutout. The Phillies offense has been hitting well of late, and the bullpen is much improved. In fact, the Dodgers and Phillies bullpens have the same FIP in the past month.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Orioles have the worst weighted on base average in the majors in the last two weeks. Baltimore has been very streaky this year on offense, and they have been ice cold of late. Boston is dealing with some injuries right now. Hanley Ramirez is questionable for this one. The Red Sox are worse than average in the majors in wOBA in the last couple weeks as well.

Mike Muchlinski is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. It also helps a lot to get the wind blowing in from center field at 10-12 mph during this game with moderate temperatures. 

Drew Pomeranz has been solid all year. Kevin Gausman has been very good of late, and he has a stellar track record against AL East opponents, especially at home.

The under is 4-0-1 in Gausman's last 5 starts vs. the Red Sox. The under is 3-0-1 in Pomeranz's last 4 starts vs. the Orioles. A combined 7-0 trend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* Eduardo Rodriguez actually has a better average allowed (.229) on the road than he does at home (.243). Rodriguez has had some bad batted ball luck on the road. Rodriguez is a guy with a high upside and he comes into this game throwing the ball well. The Rays are a team that strikes out a lot and Rodriguez averages 10 strikeouts per nine innings.

Jake Odorizzi has been really bad this year. The Rays are 1-7 in his last 8 home starts. Odorizzi has a 4.52 ERA, but his FIP is much higher at 5.79. He's fortunate to not have done worse on the year. Boston's lineup has a .376 wOBA against him. 

Tampa Bay's bullpen has been absolutely gassed in the last few days, and that could hurt a lot here as well.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber here, and it would be hard to overstate how amazing he has been since June. In 16 of his last 20 starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less. Kluber is averaging nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings, and only 1.66 walks per nine innings. He should continue his dominance in this one.

Danny Duffy comes off the disabled list here. Duffy is a guy who nibbles on the corners though and home plate umpire Angel Hernandez is one of the better under umpires in baseball. That should be a big help.

Winds blowing in on a moderate temperature day help the under as well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Friday Night Fast CASH* The Philadelphia Phillies are a bad team who is red hot of late. There are some strong systems about backing bad teams who get hot late in the season. The thinking here is this is a team who has called up a bunch of youngsters, and guys like Hoskins are really helping this Phillies team win games. They are playing with no pressure and having fun.

Oakland is 22-49 on the road this year. The A's start Daniel Mengden who has never been a highly touted prospect, and his ERA is 7.07 on the year. The A's traded away a lot of their bullpen, and that's an area of weakness now.

Mark Leiter has remarkable splits on the season. He has a 1.87 ERA at home on the season. He faces off against an Oakland offense that is one of the weakest in the American League. In the matchup of two bad teams, I'll take the team playing good baseball with a lot of young talent. 

Take the Phillies. 

*3 Star Play Under* Andrew Cashner has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Cashner has been particularly good at home. Cashner has an ERA under 3 at home on the year. He has allowed only 8 runs in his last 5 starts. 

Cashner has been much better in the second half of the season. He has lowered his walk rate drastically. He allowed a .316 weighted on base average in the first half of the season. He has allowed only a .269 weighted on base average in the second half of the year.

Felix Hernandez will start here and will be on a pitch count. Hernandez threw it well in Triple A starts. Andrew Albers is expected to be first in relief here, and he has been very solid this year. 

The Rangers are badly beaten up right now. Adrian Beltre is playing badly injured and may or may not be in the lineup. Mike Napoli is out with an injury. Carlos Gomez is doubtful with an injury.

This game means a lot to both teams. I think the total is a little too high.

The under is 6-0 in Cashner's last 6 home starts. The under is 8-3 in Hernandez's last 11 starts vs. the Rangers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* In a large sample size, the Mariners have absolutely crushed Martin Perez. Seattle's lineup has a .333 average and a .406 wOBA against Perez in 172 plate appearances. 

The Mariners are the much healthier team here. Adrian Beltre is out with an injury for the Rangers. Mike Napoli is questionable with an injury. Carlos Gomez is questionable with an injury.

Mike Leake isn't a great pitcher, but he isn't bad either. He's backed by the better bullpen in this one, and this Mariners bullpen is more rested than the Rangers bullpen.

In a game that should be high scoring, I trust the Mariners offense more than the Rangers offense.

One final thing that helps some as well. Vic Carrapazza is behind the plate here, and in my database of umpires, he ranks in the top five in units won for road teams in the past five seasons.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Angel Hernandez is a good under umpire. He always ranks in the top 10 or 12 umpires in the league in percentage of pitches called a strike. He'll help both pitchers in this one.

Tampa Bay has been ice cold of late. The Rays have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 9 games. Jaime Garcia is a middle of the road lefty, and the Rays have been bad against left-handed pitching this season.

Chris Archer is having the best season of his career if you look at his underlying stats. His FIP is 3.36 and xFIP is 3.30. He has pitched well against the Yankees in the recent past, but hasn't gotten any run support.

In the last 25 games of the regular season, teams with a win percentage of 45% or higher that are playing the final game of a series see the total go under at a 55.5% clip (in the last 5 seasons). 

The under is 6-0 in Archer's last 6 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 10-0 combined angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire for this game. Meals is one of the best over umpires in the game. That is a big boost here especially since we have two starting pitchers very capable of getting hit hard, and two bullpens who are exhausted and limping to the finish.

Dylan Covey is in over his head in the majors. The White Sox called him up too soon. Covey has an 8.08 ERA and a 7.94 FIP. He is allowing more than 3 home runs per nine innings. He is walking almost as many guys as he strikes out. 

Sam Gaviglio isn't as bad as Covey, but he isn't good. He doesn't pitch deep into games, and he is prone to allowing big innings too often.

The White Sox have been the worst bullpen in baseball in the last two months. In the past 30 days, the Royals are in the bottom five bullpens in baseball. There should be scoring chances late.

The White Sox have scored 8 runs or more in each of their last three games. Abreu is on fire and Anderson and Moncada are swinging it well also. 

The Royals have potential to score in bunches and they'll get chances here against Covey and a terrible bullpen.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Ariel Miranda has been getting absolutely blown up on the road. Miranda has a 6.16 ERA on the road this year. He has allowed a mind-boggling 23 home runs on the road in only 73 innings pitched. His weighted on base average allowed is .376 away from home. 

The Texas Rangers are very capable of putting up a big number, and Miranda's extremely high walk rate and high home run rate allowed make this a very dangerous spot for him.

Cole Hamels isn't the same guy he was a few years ago. He averages only 5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a pitch to contact guy now, and his hard contact rate has gone from 28% two years ago to 35.4% this year. 

The Mariners offense is very solid against left handed pitching. The wind is blowing out here on a warm night in Texas.

The over is 8-0 in the Rangers last 8 games following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 during game one of a series. A 20-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners start Erasmo Ramirez here. Ramirez has been a streaky pitcher in his time in the majors. Ramirez has made five straight quality starts. 

Ramirez also has been great in the past against this Angels lineup. The Angels lineup has a very bad .287 weighted on base average against him. In 130 plate appearances, they have only 2 homers off him. 

Ramirez has great numbers at home this year. Ramirez has a 2.70 ERA and opponents have a .200 average against him at home this season. 

Parker Bridwell has allowed 13 runs in his last 6 innings pitched. This Seattle lineup is a dangerous one, and I think they can get to him as they have in the past. He's allowed a .387 wOBA to them in a small sample size. 

The Angels bullpen was used up a lot yesterday after Heaney left with an injury. The Mariners bullpen is more rested.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners have to win games right now. Seattle is 70-71 after a win last night. Seattle has gotten healthier in the last week, and the Mariners do have the offense to put together another run to try to win in the American League Wild Card race. 

Andrew Heaney has been absolutely crushed in his four starts for the Angels this year. Heaney has allowed 49.1% of balls hit off him to be hard hit balls. That's higher than anyone you'll ever see in the majors. Heaney is allowing more than 5 home runs per every nine innings. 

Andrew Albers has been a decent starting pitching option in the minors, and he has a solid 3.43 ERA in four starts. The Angels offensive lineup isn't deep. Trout is great, but the lineup around him isn't very good.

The Angels are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a left handed starter. They are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The Mariners are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 16-0 angle.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Diego Padres start Dinelson Lamet here. Lamet has the highest upside of any pitcher in the Padres organization. Lamet has been his best at home. He has allowed opposing hitters to bat only .188 in his starts at home this year. 

The Padres are 38-34 on the year at home. This Padres team has been far more scrappy than I expected them to be this year. They have some young hitters who have helped the team quite a bit in the last couple months.

Jack Flaherty starts for the Cardinals and he isn't considered a high upside guy. In addition, the Cardinals have Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, and Dexter Fowler dealing with injuries and they are questionable. Jedd Gyorko is on the DL as well.

Take the plus money price at home on the Padres.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Diamondbacks ML* The Arizona Diamondbacks have won 5 straight contests against the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers have lost three straight series. 

Los Angeles has missed Corey Seager badly of late. He's doubtful to start in this one, and Seager is such an important player in this lineup. 

Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt got good injury news on Tuesday and he is questionable to get back in the lineup here. David Peralta and Jake Lamb had a day off to rest on Tuesday and they'll be back in the lineup here. 

Kenta Maeda has allowed a .403 weighted on base average against the Diamondbacks in his career. 

Taijuan Walker has a 2.71 ERA on the road this year. Walker has allowed only one run in his last three starts combined. 

This fits into a late season system of playing underdogs who with a win percentage of 55% or higher in the last month of the season. Over the past 6 years, this has a 10% ROI system. 

A team that has won 12 straight as a big dog? I have to grab this one at this price.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* We have two starting pitchers in this one who are very capable of getting blown up at any point. 

Bartolo Colon has a 6.25 ERA and a 5.05 SIERA on the season thus far. Colon has a swinging strike rate of just 5.4%. He is allowing 1.68 homers per nine innings. This Tampa Bay Rays team has a ton of power.

Jake Odorizzi's advanced numbers are even worse than Bartolo Colon's. His FIP is 5.97 and his SIERA is 5.19. Odorizzi is giving up a lot of hard contact and a ton of fly balls this year. He is allowing 2.15 homers per nine innings. He's been at his worst in July and August, where he's combined to have an ERA of 6.34. 

I'm not high on either bullpen, and I think they'll have to be in this game for quite a while after subpar starting pitching. 

The over is 7-0 in Odorizzi's last 7 home starts. The over is 8-0 in his last 8 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 24-0 angle.

Take the over.