Take Patriots +1.5 4.5 Dime POD
I have been on fire with my NFL POD's 9-1 now in my last 10. I'll keep it going here tonight with the Patriots. The Patriots are averaging 32.7 points and giving up just 22 on turf this year. I do recall a similar situation where they went on a Sunday Night game against the Colts an undefeated team, on turf. Yes they lost, but it was by 1 point and they led 24-14 at one time and should have won the game. Actually the Saints have many similarities and in the end it's my opinion that the Colts are better. Again I always have to take the AFC team in a close match up. Colts have a better scoring defense and rushing defense, but their passing defense is a little weaker than the Saints 20th ranked vs. 16th. However, the Saints are banged up a bit in their secondary. The Saints have had issues with the AFC this year and were lucky enough to come out 3-0 vs. the Patriots division opponents. Against the Bills they were winning just 10-7 going into the 4th, Dolphins they were losing 34-24 going into the 4th quarter and won, and then vs. Jets they were up 17-10 going into the 4th. All three teams had a chance to win this game. Patriots just seem to know how to beat these type teams or at least stay in the game. Patriots will win in a high scoring affair.

Take Titans -2 4.5 Dime POD
I'm going with the Titans here at home they got the 4 game winning streak and are playing maybe better than any other team in the league. The Vince Young option has looked amazing and so have the Titans. The Cardinals are good don't get me wrong, but I always take AFC over NFC in this situation except for T-day when I had the Giants. I learned real quick that the AFC is the far superior league over the NFC. Titans want to win out, and the Cardinals just won't be able to match the hard hitting here today and Chris Johnson will run loose!

Packers -11 @ -108 4-Dime NFL POD Over 47 2-Dime Bonus
I'm going with the Packers and the over here. It's bad news for the Lions as their two young stars don't look like they will be playing on Thursday. Stafford is out for sure, and Culpepper will get the start which he did the last time he faced the Packers and what did he do well he got hurt too and combined with Drew Stanton 11-25 105 yards 3 interceptions in a 26-0 loss @ Green Bay.

Rodgers on the other hand was great going 29-37 358 yards 2TD 1 INT. Honestly they should have scored more than 26 points and this time around I think they get into the 30's easily. The injuries from the Packers defense is enough for the Lions to score double digits as Al Harris and Kampan create some match up advantages. However, it will be mostly the Packers on this day I am afraid. Throw the short rest road trip out the Packers will be plenty up for this game at 6-4 facing a bad team divisional or not the Packers have played back to back solid games defensively and offensively to move to 6-4. A win here keeps them a step up on the Wild Card competition.

If Cleveland's Brady Quinn can move around and throw four 4 TD's imagine what Aaron Rodgers will be able to do. The injuries on defense were huge, but the offense is getting healthy with Clifton back Rodgers won't be getting sacked every other play any longer. Along with that Greg Jennings finally had a big game last week. I look for all that to continue as well as his new favorite weapon Finley TE.

Take Titans +4 (3.5 Dime NFL POD)
I'm going with the Titans since Vince Young has taken over they have won three straight and have put up 30, 34, and 41 points respectively and they weren't playing trash defenses in Jaxonville, Buffalo and 49ers all who I have respect for in their own way.

Titans 11-4 ATS all time vs. the Texans have lost the last two SU and ATS but are 5-0 ATS in the previous 5. However, the loss has Titans players burning. Bo Scaife quoted, "We owe them and they know it." Titans man handled the Texans on the ground as Chris Johnson had 197 yards rushing on 16 carries in week2. On the season Johnson averages 6.4 ypc and should be able to run the ball here again tonight against the 13th ranked rushing defense. The key here for the Titans is stopping the passing game of Houston. Andre Johnson had 10 receptions and 149 yards the first time around, but a lot is different this time around. Not only does Schaub not have the cushion or security blanket in Owen Daniels who is on the IR and had 6 receptions 72 yards and a TD 1st time around. This should effect the effectiveness of the Texans passing offense. Titans are ranked 31st against the pass but they are now a lot healthier than the 1st time around and have started to win games because of that health.

Additionally these two teams always play close games as the dog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Titans are very good as dogs 9-1 ATS last 10 3.5-10 points and are 16-7 in their last 23 overall as dogs.

Take 49ers +7 4-Dime POD
Yes, the Packers showed up and played well against the Cowboys in a game they absolutely needed. Now they will play the Niners who have very quietly been a tough opponent on the road. In the faces of the Cardinals they won, they lost by 3 @ Minnesota in what was a Favre miracle, and they led late in Indinapolis but fell by 4 points all three of those teams are better than the Packers. 49ers also get 3 extra days of preparation time as they are coming off a Thursday win against the Bears.

This is a unique situation because the Packers will also be playing on Thanksgiving day and will have the short rest in the back of their minds for sure. The 49ers picked off Jay Cutler 5 times in their last game and their defense is very solid under their head coach Mike Singletary. I wouldn't be surprised to see them shut down Aaron Rodgers at all in what I think will be a very close game in Green Bay.

Take Panthers -3 (3.5 Dime NFL POD)
Panthers are on fire and it's mainly due to the fact that they went back to running the ball and the result has been three straight games for Delhomme without an interception. That's impressive considering in the middle of those three games he played the Saints who lead the league in interceptions. While the Cardinals are 10th and Falcons 22nd. The Dolphins stand in tied at 16th with just 8 interceptions. The secondary ranks 28th in the league and I've seen it with my own eyes get picked apart. Also despite having the 7th ranked rush defense I have seen them get run all over by the Jets twice. Now the Jets rank #1 in rushing and have a more aggressive offensive line, but the two are very similar with a better running back in D. Williams.

Actually the Panthers went on the road just a few weeks ago facing a similar defense in the Cardinals who are ranked 22nd overall 30th against the pass, and 8th against the run, and 12th in points. Dolphins similarly are 20th, 28th, 7th, 28th. I look for the Panthers to continue to run the ball and pass without turnovers.

Dolphins will be fighting something else life without Ronnie Brown. Brown responsible for the majority of the wild cat offense will now be split by White and Williams now I don't know how effective that will be, plus the Dolphins have had just 3 games to prepare for the game and life without Ronnie Brown who is lost for the season.

Take Ravens -10 buy 1/2 point 3.5 Dime POD
I can't think of any reason to take the Browns other than what they did a year ago against the Giants at home on Monday Night. Major difference here tonight this is not a non-conference game. Not only is it a conference game, but it's a divisional game and the Ravens have to keep pace with the other wild card teams including the Steelers, and the Jaguars. Ravens are a proud team with a defense not playing up to its capabilities but is still ranked 7th in rush defense this year and shut down the Browns the first time 34-3 sending Brady Quinn to the bench.

Quinn back into the lineup off the bye will start for the Browns and I don't see what will change. They don't have a go to receiver and their defense is ranked last in the league. They are 25th against the pass and 31st against the run and 28th in points allowed. Ray Rice is going to have his way with the Browns rush defense all night long which will set up the pass enough for the Ravens to score into the 20's and maybe even into the 30's. Browns on the other hand unless they get some turnovers will most likely not going to score over 10 points in my opinion.

Take Chargers pk 4.5 Dime POD
I got some great insider info on this game to play it hard.

I can't help but play it and we remember what the Eagles did the last time they were out here don't we? The Oakland Raiders beat up on the Eagles. yes, the Oakland Raiders. Eagles looked very ordinary last week in a loss to the Cowboys at home and now have to go back out west.

They played back to back hard hitting games against division rivals in the Giants and the Cowboys and now going out west to play a team that is just hot at the right time. Look for the Chargers to take this game by a TD

Take Panthers +1.5 as 4-Dime POD
79% of the public is on the Falcons on Sunday and the line has not moved, but that is not the only reason why I feel the need to go with the Panthers in this spot.

Panthers lost in the first match up 28-20, but they out gained the Falcons on the road 440-371. Since that game they have played much better and have outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents and are 3-2. They are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and come in with the #3 rushing attack and they will go up against the Falcons who have the 24th rushing defense.

Panthers at 3-5 need this division game to salvage their season if they have any hopes of returning to the playoffs. The combination of them playing at home and the Falcons struggles on the road have me loving the Panthers on Sunday. The Falcons are 1-3 on the road this year and their only win was @ SF in a rout. They will face the overall #9 total defense which is mostly solid against the pass but ranked #23 against the run. However, Ryan has struggled as of late and I think the Panthers D will have a big advantage here on Sunday.

[b]Take 49ers -2.5 3-Dime POD buy 1/2 money -120[/b]
Bottom line the Niners need this game and they have the home field advantage. The Bears have not played well at all as of late as Matt Forte continues to struggle running the ball and during that time Jay Cutler has gone pick happy throwing 7 interceptions over the last 4 games. The Niners are coming off 4 straight games and all 4 were of quality besides maybe the Titans, but I disagree on that one as this was the 13-3 team that is acting like it finally. They also lost by just 4 at the Colts and home to the Falcons and Texans all probable playoff teams except the Titans. Bears gave up 514 rushing yards in the last 3 games look for Frank Gore to get it going here tonight which will allow for Alex Smith to operate where he is most comfortable out of the play action going over the top to Vernon Davis. Bears are 28th in pass TD's allowed and are the 13th worst against TE allowing 6 TD's this year which should allow Davis to break free for one atleast. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS vs. the Bears at home and the number has started to rise from opening at -2.5 to 3.5 and 4's in some places.

Take Steelers -2 4-Dime POD
For as bad as I have been in NFL I have been great in NCAAF, but that all does not matter with the losers in NFL. I am dedicated to turning this around the 2nd half of the year and will do so starting tonight by making some major tweaks. Normally I'd be on the Broncos here, and it's based off line movement as the public is on the Steelers but the line moves the other way. However, looking at this match up more there is just no way I can take the Broncos who finally gave up some 2nd half points to the Ravens last week.

Now the Ravens are similar to the Steelers in more ways than one. Like the Ravens last week the Steelers are coming off the bye. LIke the Ravens the Steelers have a shut down defense only the Steelers possess the #1 rush defense and overall are better. Like the Ravens the Steelers have always been a run first team, but are doing it through the air this year. While the Ravens have a slightly better running game the Steelers are starting to look better over the last three weeks with 4.3 yards per carry. Now the ability to stop the run against the Broncos is the key and sets up a more favorable match up for a team if they can do so.

Now I'm going to give you three reasons why the Steelers are better than the Broncos along with the fact that home field won't be as much of an advantage tonight because the Steelers are in fact coming off a bye giving them more time to prepare. Making the home field vs. team off bye a wash.

Three reasons:
Both teams played at home vs. the Browns. Steelers outgained CLE by 346 yards, while Denver outgained them by 249. +97 yard advantage to Steelers.

Both teams played at the Bengals. Steelers outgained them by 100 yards while Denver was outgained by 5 yards. +105 yard advantage to Steelers.

Denver @ Chargers out gained the Chargers by 17 yards, but the Steelers at home outgained them by 246 yards. That's a +229 yard advantage to Steelers. Certainly proves that the Steelers are the better team to me defensively because they were able to stop San Diego while Denver just could not and struggled vs. the pass.

Denver is a great defense and should be able to get to Big Ben a bunch tonight, but it's the plays that Big Ben make with his feet to get outside the pocket and get the ball to his receivers that win this game. If you throw out the running game because both defenses have top 5 run stopping units the passing game is where the game gets decided for me. Now Big Ben although he takes a lot of sacks he does not turn the ball over via fumble something the Broncos have feasted on this year. This is good news for the Steelers as Big Ben will likely break a few sacks and get the ball away to one of the receivers. Pitt on the other hand plays better pass defense than indicated as they lost Troy Polamoulou's for quite some time and now he'll be back for his 2nd game and off a bye to really come into play. The dink and dunk passing won't work against the Steelers and Orton is going to have to take some shots.

Overall I'll take Big Ben over Kyle Orton who maybe for the first time looks human and makes some big time mistakes. Baltimore proved that it was possible to score on the Broncos in the 2nd half and should give the Steelers confidence to put this team away late.