Lions +4 4.4% NFL POD

Vikings +2.5 5.5% NFL POD

Bengals +6 5.5% NFL POD

Seahawks pk 5.5% POD

49ers -1.5 5.5% NFL POD

Ravens -2.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD

Steelers +110 5.5% NFL POD

Bills +5 5.5% NFL POD

NY Giants +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Steelers pk 4.4% play 

Redskins +135 5.5% NFL POD

Titans +3 5.5% NFL POD

Bengals +121 5.5% POD

Patriots -4 5.5% NFL POD

Eagles +3.5 -11.5 5.5% POD

Jaguars +7 4.4% NFL POD

Eagles +3 5.5% NFL POD

TITANS +8 5.5% POD

Panthers +4 5.5% POD

49ers +4.5 5.5% POD

Browns +7 5.5% NFL POD

Chiefs +100 4.5% NFL POD

Eagles +100 5.5% NFL POD

Browns +14 5.5% POD

Lions +3 4.4% POD

Bills +7 5.5% POD

Bills +130 5.5% NFL POD

Titans -3.5 5.5% POD

Lions +3 5.5% Pod +100

Cleveland Browns +6 5.5% NFL POD

Browns +10 5.5% POD

Dolphins -110 5.5% pod

Chargers -1.5 5.5% POD

Bills +3.5 5.5% POD

Patriots -3 -105 5.5% POD

Packers +185 5.5% POD

Packers +175 5.5% POD

Packers -5.5 5.5% POD

Raiders +4 5.5% NFL POD

Packers -3.5 5.5% POD

Dolphins +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Bears +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Packers +140 5.5% POD

Cardinals -2.5 5.5% POD

PANTHERS +3.5 5.5% POD

Ravens +7.5 5.5% POD +300 2% BONUS

TEXANS +120 5.5% POD 

Dolphins +125 5.5% NFL POD

I will take the Dolphins on the money line here as our top play.  I don't trust the Bills in this spot laying points to a divisional opponent for the first time since 2008 and they have a big game next week against the Patriots.  Lesean McCoy is questionable for this game with the hamstring.  Even if he's a go he won't be 100% as hamstring injuries are very difficult to over come in a few days.  Too much value on the home team here as the Bills were struggling last week against the 49ers halfway through the third quarter a week ago and cruised to a misleading win. 

Lions +4 5.5% POD

Tampa Bay Bucs +3.5 5.5% NFL POD Tampa lost to the Rams last week, but arguably they have had one of the tougher schedules. Denver has probably exceeded everyone’s expectations while the Bucs who many thought were going to be great have struggled. This is a game I see the Bucs winning outright. I think their offense should have enough success as Denver is 25th in rushing yards per carry allowed, Tampa is actually 8th. If I told you Tampa had the better run defense this year I think you would be surprised. This is also a tough travel spot for Denver coming from Denver down to Tampa Bay. If I told you Denver was 30th in third down defense you would also probably be shocked. Tampa is actually 12th in third down defense.

Jaguars +1 5.5% POD
The Ravens coming into this game at 2-0, but who have they beat? They rallied a week ago in a division game to beat the lowly Clevland Browns. In week 1 they defeated the Buffalo Bills who have already fired their offensive coordinator. Jaguars lost last week at San Diego which for a young team was a tough trip, but coming back home at 0-2 I think there is a lot of value on this team. Jaguars actually out gained both of their opponents despite going 0-2, and there is this thought that the Jaguars are the same old Jaguars. I'm sure the public will be rushing to play the Ravens in this one.

Panthers -1 / TB Bucs +1 4.4% Teaser
This is a horrible situation for the Vikings to travel to after they beat the Packers in prime-time. They lose 2 more key players in their running back Peterson and tackle Matt Kalil. Two huge loses that I'm not sure this Vikings team can over come. The Panthers meanwhile have shown some weaknesses in their secondary, but I don't see the Vikings taking advantage. Sam Bradford played well last week, but asking him to win on the road is too much to ask. Panthers 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. 

For the Bucs, Jameis Winston coming back home off the worst game of his career in the blow out loss at Arizona. That's the story with Winston though he's hot and cold, and I'm expecting a huge bounce back week against the Rams who beat the Seahawks in our POD last week. Expecting them to struggle on the road. The Rams are a bad offensive team, and the Tampa Bay Bucs can be explosive at times under Winston. I see a victory by a TD. The Rams playing in an early game on the road in the humidity of Tampa Bay will be a challenge.

[b]RAMS +7 5.5% POD[/b]

The Rams could not have looked worse a week ago, but I don't think they are this bad.  There has been roughly a 4 point adjustment made, and the Rams may have been peaking ahead to this game anyway.  Rams are 6-2 ATS against Russell Wilson, who is coming in to this game banged up.  Also worth noting is how bad the Seahawks offensive line is.  This is clearly not the same team and the strength of the Rams defense is the defensive line.  This is their first game in LA, and I expect them to make a statement and have a chance to pull off the upset.  I'm not a huge fan of Case Keenum, but Todd Gurley is arguably a top 3 running back.  I think this is a low scoring game and 7 points is just too much value here for the home team.

TEASER ALERT - JETS +8.5 W/ CARDINALS -1 4.4% 

Jaguars +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

The Jaguars were getting pre-season hype, but when playing the Packers that goes out the window.  The public simply loves to back the big name QB, and that's no exception to open up the season.  The Jaguars have the offensive weapons to score with anyone and I think this is a huge statement game for them.  It also helps they are playing this in their home state.  This is not an easy trip for a cold weather team to be making even if it is in September.  Humidity is a key here as it's going to be in the 90's and will be near 70% humidity which I do give an edge to the Jaguars for. 

The Packers are not taking this Jaguars team seriously and probably are overlooking them a bit here with their division game against the Vikings up next week.  After all they are 19-61 over the last 5 years, but Jacksonville has the weapons on both sides of the ball.  The defense is very under rated, but extremely athletic.  I can see rookie corner Jalen Ramsey making a big play or two, and the Jaguars first round pick a year ago Dante Fowler is also a candidate to cause nightmares for offensive lines which is key, because the Packers are already without their starter Corey Linsley at Center which is a very underrated and under appreciated position in the NFL.

Broncos +6 5.5* NFL POD; Broncos +197 1* bonus

It seems like everyone is on the Panthers for this game, but late action coming in on the Broncos possibly as the line has moved down off the 6 to 5.5, but 6 is regularly available still and I’m taking the Broncos at +6. (Stay tuned for my bonus prop package which will be added at the end of this write up late Saturday early Sunday).

Listen, the Panthers have looked unstoppable and have dones so against 2 of the better defenses in the NFC, but I still don’t think those defenses were as healthy, and they certainly are not nearly as good as this Denver group (more on that later).  I actually backed the Panthers in the NFC Championship big, and it paid off, but the final score is misleading and it has everyone backing Cam Newton and the Panthers for this Super Bowl.  I have heard 8 out of 10 people stating how the Panthers will win and dominate, but I’m not so sure for various reasons.  The most common reason I hear is the “Panthers offense is unstoppable, and the Broncos offense is awful.”  I also hear that Panthers defense is just as good as Denver.  I disagree, and we have seen the Broncos move their offense against good defenses.  4 of their last 5 games they have scored 20+ points and have done so against top defenses.

Let’s get into the misleading fact of the Denver offense and Carolina offense, because I think it’s critical to bring up.  Let’s look at stats and strength of schedule.  Denver comes in with the 24th ranked offense on paper form a yards per play perspective and they have done this with 2 QB’s and a very conservative approached offense.  Along with that they have faced 11 of their 18 opponents ranked in the top 15 in yards per play defense.  So their offense has had a tough challenge all year.  When you look at Carolina in comparison it really does not compare.  The Panthers have faced just 6 of their 18 opponents ranked in the top 15 in yards per play defense.  Their division opponents not very good in Atlanta and New Orleans so that plays a big factor, but this team really hasn’t played a defense like Denver with the exception of Seattle.

They scored 31 and 27 points on Seattle and that was impressive, but Denver is a better defense.  They run a 3-4 with size as opposed to the 4-3, and Denver can get to the QB unlike Seattle this year.  Denver ranks #1 in sack %.  Before I get into the pass defense of the Denver Broncos we all know that stopping the Panthers is going to be about stopping the run.  Denver ranks #1 in rushing yards per carry allowed.  I mentioned in my Panthers write up last week the size of the inner linebackers for the Cardinals was going to be a huge issue as they average 226lbs, but Denver averages 249.  Carolina has faced just 4 teams ranking in the top 10 in rushing yards per carry defense.  Tampa, Seattle, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.  In reality those defenses really don’t scare you with the exception of Seattle and not any of these teams ranked top 10 in all 4 key pass defense categories that I look at – opponent pass yards per completion, sack % of drop backs, opponent QB rating, and opponent QB completion %.

Cam Newton only faced 2 teams this season ranked in the top 10 in passing defense completion %.  I bring that up, because I don’t think Cam Newton is very accurate.  I think he might have gotten lucky at late with some passes that were just beautifully thrown with poor foot work.  I think the Denver Broncos can get him into a lot of those situations because of their pass rush.  Carolina was 24th in completion % despite not playing any defenses that were very good at coverage and the Broncos rank 5th.  So how are we getting 6 points with a defense that is this good, and nothing like the Panthers have ever seen this season? 

Lastly, I’ll mention special teams because you often see it play such a huge factor in the Super Bowl.  Some will never take a team with the worse special teams in a match up, but according to football outsiders the Denver Broncos are 14th in special teams efficiency compared to the Panthers at 23rd.  

**PROP PLAYS**

Danny Trevathan - Total Solo+Assisted Tackles - Must Play

Take Over 7.5 -130 1.3* play to win 1

I really like Trevathan, who was one of the only guys that showed up in the Broncos last Super Bowl.  Trevathan had 12 combined tackles in that game.  I think the way the Panthers play fits right into Trevathan’s strengths here and I expect him to be all over the field especially since the Panthers like to run the ball a lot.

Cam Newton - Total Rushing Yards on First Attempt - Must Play

Under 5.5 yards -130 – 1.3* play to win 1

In just 4 games this year did Cam Newton have a rush over 5.5 yards as his first rush of the game.  He now faces the Denver Broncos the best rushing defense in terms of yards per carry, and they are 3rd in explosive runs allowed.

Panthers vs Broncos: Will Either Team Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game2016-02-07 18:30

No -120 1.2* PLAY 

Neither of these two teams move quickly.  They take a lot of time off per each drive.  Denver is also 5th in points allowed in the first quarter.  The first quarter is the lowest scoring quarter in Super Bowl History by a big margin which makes sense.  Most teams start by trying to feel each other out.

Vernon Davis Over 5.5 Receiving Yards +120 2* play

Vernon Davis returns to the 49ers Stadium for the Super Bowl.  He has gotten 0 targets over the last 4 games and Owen Daniels caught 2 TD’s in the last one, but I certainly feel Vernon Davis could be the X factor here.  I like everything I have read about Davis in terms of what he is saying to the media.  There have been stories that he has struggled to pick up the offense, but with 2 weeks to prepare Peyton Manning would be stupid not to get him into certain plays and the Panthers have shown vulnerabilities down field against teams like Seattle.  I really like what I’m hearing from Davis and this is great value. Davis has said this week in the media, “I’m back in Santa Clara where I grew up from a little boy to a man,” Davis said this week of his NFL upbringing with the 49ers. “I’m back here. My house is 12 minutes away. It’s been a great experience and I look forward to the rest.”

Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete +140 1.5* play I'm betting Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete. There is some good value in this play when you look because Cam Newton threw an incomplete pass in his first pass of the game in 8 of the 16 regular season games. That's despite playing just 4 teams in the top 10 in opponent completion %. His division was awful ranking 26th, 31st, and 32nd. Cam had a lot of games against some very bad teams in completion % defense and now he faces Denver who is ranked 5th with an elite secondary. 

I'm also going to take Came Newton Under 19.5 completions -115 1.15* playWhen you consider the fact that newton has completed more than 19.5 completion in just 7 out of the 18 games he's played this year and he goes up against the best defense then there is definite value on this play unless you think Denver is going to get up big in this game which is unlikely to happen with the Broncos offense. 

Emmanuel Sanders -22.5 yards vs. Ted Ginn 2.2* play I'm taking Sanders in this spot the guy has had 60+ yards receiving in 5 straight games while Ginn has really struggled with only 6 targets in his last 3 games combined. Corey Brown and Funchess are getting many more targets yet Ginn is known for his explosiveness, but the Broncos pass rush really takes that away. Ginn is hit or miss and I see him missing here today. He's had just 4 games of 80+ yards while Sanders has 9. Sanders also goes up against Cortland Finnegan who was retired in November, but came out of retirement due to the fact that Carolina lost 2 starting receivers. Sanders has been a Manning favorite.

 CJ Anderson to score a TD +160 1* play / Anderson to score Broncos 1st TD +400 0.5* play Anders has a rushing TD in 3 of his last 4 games and we all know Gary Kubiak's play calling ability is relentless with the running game and I see no reason why that won't change here. Carolina has allowed 4.3 ypc in their last 3 games and they are 24th in opponent rushing TD%. 

Manning to throw a passing TD first +130 1* play I see some good value on this play considering Manning goes up against the weaker secondary and has the better receiving weapons. I mentioned before the fact that Carolina's Cam Newton can be extremely inaccurate and if he's not throwing 20+ yard TD passes it's most likely the running game in the red zone. I see Manning being able to take advantage of some match ups early in this game before Carolina is able to make adjustments. Worth a look is Vernon Davis to score first TD at +4000. He's been a ghost, but still has the mismatch ability and we know Manning has liked the TE's, but tough to say if we see Davis in there in a crucial part of the game.

Panthers -3 5.5* NFL pod

Panthers -2 5.5* NFL POD

I am going with the Panthers in this spot for various reasons.  First of all it's good to note that I have probably faded the Panthers more times this season only to be proven wrong.  I did the same thing with Cam Newton when he was at Auburn only to come back and bet Auburn big late in that season to dominating wins.  I think I have learned my lesson and the value is extraordinary here with the Panthers.  I don't know any other situation where you'd have a 15-1 team going against an 11-6 team as an under dog.  I get they are 2 point favorites, but in everyone's eyes the Panthers are under dogs here today.  They have a lot to prove, and that same message is clear from Panther players this week in the media.

They still have to play the game and while I'm not a huge fan of betting a team that won in the regular season, but the Panthers certainly gained a ton of confidence in Seattle when they had their 4th quarter come back off back to back 80 yard TD drives to win the game.  TD drives is the key here, because Carolina is one of the best in the red zone at 72% TD rate at home.  The other thing to note is Cam Newton threw 2 INT's in that game, and Seattle had Jimmy Graham who caught 8 receptions for 140 yards and they still lost.  No Jimmy Graham this time, and the running game of Seattle is struggling so it's going to be on the shoulders of Russell Wilson.  Let's also not discount the travel that Seattle has had to under take this last week going out to Minnesota, back to Seattle, and now back to Carolina to play a 1pm game.

You could make an argument that Seattle has the better defense, but I would hesitate to agree.  When you look at what they did down the stretch hey held Minnesota to 7 and 10 points, Baltimore without Flaco to 6, Cleveland to 13, and Arizona who had zero incentive to play to 6 points, and they gave up 23 points to the Rams offense at home in a loss.  I think Seattle's defense is very good, but they haven't really faced many top offenses.  They faced Arizona/Pittsburgh the two top YPP offenses and both scored over 30 points on them when it mattered. The Bengals were 9th and put up 27 on Seattle, and Carolina is 12th and put up 27 on the Seahawks.  So the Seahawks defense played only 5 games against top 12 offenses in the league and when you take out Arizona in week 17 because they were seriously not interested in showing anything, they allowed an average of 30.75 points per game.

Carolina's defense faced the following top 12 offenses: New Orleans - 22 points allowed, Tampa 23, Seattle 23, Washington 16, New Orleans 38, Atlanta 0, Giants 35, Atlanta 20, Tampa 10.  To summarize they faced 9 teams in the top 12 in yards per play offense and allowed 20.78 points per game.  The Panthers gave up some big numbers late and I feel those were due to injuries.  I expect this team to be a lot healthier and it also pays to play at home where they are #1 in yards per point.

I expect this game to be close in the first half with low scoring, but we have seen these defenses loosen up quite a bit in the 4th quarter of games.  I would expect if this game is close at the half for the total to go over in the second half.  Also something to look at as you feel this game out. 

Patriots -4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I really like the Pats here in this spot given the fact that they are off the bye, getting healthier and off 2 straight losses.  The Patriots will return some key guys for this one including LT Volmer who protects Brady’s blind side.  I also think this team will be coached up to handle the Chiefs blitz schemes and will have a good game plan to move the ball and put points on the board.

For the Chiefs they come in red hot, and off a 30-0 victory last week.  Very impressive we cashed with the Chiefs as well but 8 of their 11 wins during this streak have been against the bottom teams in the league.  The 3 wins were against teams that were arguably not at their best.  Texans win was very easy to see when we saw Hoyer turning the ball over so many times.  The Patriots have just 14 turnovers on the year the fewest among any team in the NFL.  The Chiefs heavily rely on winning the turnover margin and are 0-4 ATS when they don’t this year.

KC also beat Pittsburgh, but they beat them with Landry Jones at QB the 3rd string QB.  They then also beat the Broncos, but again the Broncos had Osweiler making his first start in that game.  Winning 11 games straight in the NFL is not easy by any stretch, but KC certainly had a lot of luck along the way.  They also are more banged up here with 2 offensive lineman being out, and Jeremy Maclin being questionable.  Maclin is their only deep threat, and with Kelce the only other threat in the passing game will make it very difficult for the Chiefs to move the ball.  I’d be shocked if they got to 20 points, and I see the Patriots scoring 24-31 here.  Also worth noting is what happened last year when these two met in KC where the Chiefs blew the Patriots out and everyone was saying the Patriots were done.  I’m sure somehow that is motivating to someone with the Patriots and it will show up tomorrow. 

Cardinals -1 with Broncos -1 4.4* teaser+

Let’s start with Arizona over Green Bay. It’s clear to me that the Cardinals are the better team, but the Pack just came off an impressive win on the road over the Redskins.  I don’t see it happening again this week.  In order for this offense to have success hey must run the ball, and I can’t see them doing against the front 7 of the Cardinals which is a top 10 run defense unit allowing less than 4 yards per carry.  The Redskins were ranked 30th against the run and it was a clear issue.

I also don’t believe much has changed for the two teams since they last met and the Cardinals are actually a little healthier.  Cards have been waiting on this game and I just think they are the better overall team.

Denver Broncos –

To me I saw that Peyton Manning is very close to 100% with the foot.  He was able to take snaps under center and hand the ball off.  Manning didn’t play for weeks and now he’s ready to go in the playoffs.  I think that’s perfect, because the last few seasons he was fighting injuries in the playoffs and now he’s actually fresh.  For the Steelers Antonio Brown is ruled out, and they do have other weapons, but I’m not sure Big Ben can throw down the field if he plays the entire game.  His arm is not near 100%, and I think the Broncos actually knock him out of this game.  The Broncos defense is the best in the league and they are at home with the extra week of rest.  The road teams won last week, but I’m betting that the home teams are victorious this week.

Redskins -108 5.5* NFL POD

There is not one game in the recent future that makes me feel comfortable backing the Packers here today.  Most of the public action will be on the Packers here today because of Aaron Rodgers, but there is just something that isn’t right about him.  This team scored a combined 21 points in their last 2 games to close out the season and a good Packers team does not lose a meaningful home game at the end of the season.  In fact the Packers lost games down the stretch to each of their division opponents. Green Bay’s offense is ranked 29th in the league in yards per play offense.  That’s a shocking stat I don’t think many would anticipate and they are averaging 3.9 yards per play over their last 3 games combined.

The Redskins on the other hand are 10th in the league in yards per play and have many more offensive weapons for Kirk Cousins to throw to.  They are also averaging 6.7 over their last 3 combined.  Washington 7th in protecting their QB while the Packers are 24th and are allowing Rodgers to be sacked 12.5% of his drop backs.  Part of it is his offensive line and the other part is nobody is open.  At the end of the day I trust the Redskins to move the ball better and control this game especially at home.  DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, and even Jamison Crowder are some real weapons that will be the difference in this game.

Washington at home this year allowing 31.25% TD percentage in the red zone which should be a major challenge for the Packers who are coming into this game 18th overall in red zone TD%, and over their last 3 have been successful 18.18% of the time.  Washington on the other hand comes in at 61.22% and 68% at home.  Turnovers are another key and Washington does not turn the ball over at home.  In fact Cousins has 16 TD’s to 2 Interceptions.  Today will be a challenge for Cousins going up against a top 10  pass defense, but I think he can score enough points to win this game. 

Vikings +10.5  & U46.5 3.3* Teaser

We will have extreme cold conditions on Sunday in this rematch of early December.  Usually you’d like the revenge factor with the Vikings losing 38-7 last time out and the reason I like this game to be a lot closer is the fact that the Vikings are healthy on defense returning 3 starters for this game.  Mike Zimmer also one of the top defensive minds in the game will have a better game plan for Wilson and company here in the cold temperatures they are expected to be facing.

These are two teams ranked in the top 5 in third down defense, and red zone defense.  Two offenses that are of the slower in the league in pace and both are in the top 10 in giveaways per game.  They just don’t turn the ball over so this game is going to be something that’s played very conservatively.  For the Seahawks I expect a little bit of a slow start playing at 10AM which is going to keep the Vikings in this game late.

Bengals +120 4* NFL POD

This is a risky move playing the Bengals today given this coaching staff has been around forever and they still can’t win a playoff game, but maybe it helps that they are facing an opponent they are very familiar with in their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are coming in with way too much hype, and have been out gained in 3 of their last 4 games.  I’m taking the home dog here, with the better running game and defense.  The Steelers now on their 3rd RB with DeAngelo Williams declared out for this game, and I think that falls into the advantage of the Bengals who will give up yards on the ground.  Cinci has held Big Ben under 300 yards passing in both games, and are going to make it extremely difficult for him to score.

The Bengals offensively are guided by A.J. McCarron today with Dalton being declared out, and it’s funny because McCarron is getting absolutely no respect, and I think I’d want to back a guy like this who has done nothing but win in his career.  Granted he played with Alabama, but he has the more talented team surrounding him here today and I think he plays smart football giving the Bengals a win.  The Bengals are actually better in the red zone 5th in fact in TD%, while the Steelers are 10th and the Bengals are 5th in defense, and are only allowing 33.3% TD’s in the red zone at home while the Steelers are allowing 55.56% on the road. 

That would mean this game comes down to the Big plays.  If the Bengals can eliminate them they should win this game.  The Steelers are 5th in Big play % and ironically 47 have been from running while 43 are in the passing game.  The Bengals are 2nd in big plays allowed in the running game, and 2nd in opponent big play passing games.  Another thing people don’t typically take a look at is special teams and the Bengals are much better in that department than the Steelers.

Detroit Lions -1 5.5* NFL POD

The Lions have very quietly played the best football down the stretch going 5-2, and completely turning their season around after a 1-7 start.  Matthew Stafford has been extremely impressive with a 16 to 2 TD/INT ratio since the Lions fired Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator.  Sometimes you see these moves that make absolutely no difference, but it was clear the offense was not responding to Lombardi.  Even at 5-2 the Lions should have been 7-0 when you consider how they lost those two games.  A hail mary by Rodgers, and I thought they had out played the Rams earlier this month as well.

The Lions also likely playing for their head coach here.  Jim Caldwell on the hot seat where John Fox is not and I think that’s a huge difference in this match up that gives the Lions the edge.  One of the leaders in the Lions locker room made it very obvious that the Lions players want Caldwell back.  Calvin Johnson is arguably the biggest name on the Lions and I expect that when he comes out and says something in the public that it’s pretty much the majority feeling of the team.  Johnson stating – “Love him.  Everybody in the locker room would probably say the same thing. He commands respect.. Guys gravitate towards him.”

The Lions are just playing better right now, and the Bears do not own a home field advantage going 8-22-1 ATS at home since the start of the 2011 season and are 1-6 at home this season

Browns +11.5 5.5* NFL POD

1-7 ATS their last 8, Chiefs 7-1 ATS their last 8, but I’m going to back the Browns here.  Manziel looked good against Seattle despite his team losing 30-13.  This is the second week in a row that the Browns are double digit dogs, and the second week in a row that the Chiefs are double digit favorites.  The Chiefs were 10.5 point favorites against San Diego and nearly got taken to OT as their offense scored just 10 points.  This is a conservative coaching staff and again will be in a MUST win game and we should expect nothing more than a conservative approach.  I expect the Browns to play hard, and I don’t think they have mailed it in.  Manziel wants to prove something down the stretch, and I think this is far too many points not to get excited about. 

Giants +4 5.5* NFL POD

I like the Giants who need to win every game, the Carolina Panthers have already clinched a playoff bye and while they should be motivated to play for the undefeated season, but they are banged up a bit right now.  The Giants have 7 loses this year and 5 have been by 4 points or less and when you look at who the Panthers on the road it’s just 1 potential playoff team in the Seahawks so they have really had an easy run on the road and I see their perfect season coming to an end against the Giants on Sunday who are the perfect team to give them trouble.

Jaguars -2.5 5.5* NFL POD

The Jaguars are 4-8, but I feel like they are the better team here right now.  They have not been as fortunate as the Colts this season, and the Colts again are having injury issues with their QB.  Matt Hasselback will make the start, but he’s banged up with the ribs.  The Jaguars got lit up in the 4th quarter in their last game, but that was to a mobile QB in Marcus Mariotta, this is a completely different situation here.  The Colts also could be peaking ahead to their showdown with the Texans next week who they are tied with in the division, but let’s not sleep on the Jaguars even at 4-8.  They get Atlanta at home next week, followed by road games at New Orleans and Houston and could very much be alive to a spot in the playoffs.

The Jaguars want a little revenge for their loss on the road against the Colts in OT where they clearly out played them in Indy.  Bortles had a good game without a turnover and T.J. Yeldon rushed for 105 yards, but they lost that game.  The Jaguars are the much healthier team right now, and just because Hasselback is 4-1 people are expecting that success to continue when in reality he could easily be 0-5 as he has been out gained in every single start.  I see nothing different here if nothing else it will be worse with Hassleback being limited or could get knocked out of this game with the first hit.

Raiders +125 5.5* POD

The Chiefs are really banged up right now and going back on the road where they have found success of late in division play winning at Denver, and again at San Diego, but in reality they found both of those teams at the right time.  Denver had 3 of their better defenders injured in that game, and San Diego has been rattled with injuries all year long.  In this game it’s the Chiefs with the injuries to the offensive line, now their best defensive player Justin Houston which will dramatically change that pass rush.

The Chiefs have been playing well lately, and you have to give them credit, but they are forcing 14 turnovers over their last 5 games which have left this offense looking better than it really is.  Oakland is tied for 4th in fewest interceptions thrown per game so unless they start fumbling the ball they should be in good shape here.

Oakland at home is a huge advantage, and I like the way the QB is playing ranking 4th in 3rd down conversion percentage despite having literally no running game.  KC ranks 20th in 3rd down conversions, and are even worse on the road this year.  Oakland’s defense is going to get the brunt of the disrespect in this one, but they have been pretty good at home allowing just 32% conversions on third down which gives them a match up advantage here, and that has trickled into their red zone defense which is ranked 11th overall, but at home they are allowing just 45% TD’s.  KC who is known to have the better defense comes into this one ranked 29th allowing 64.52%, and 65% on the road.  Oakland also top 10 in the red zone TD% scoring 61% of the time and 64% at home which again says a lot considering this team does not have a running game.  KC ranks 21st at 51%. 

DALLAS COWBOYS -1 5.5* NFL POD

The Cowboys play really well at home during Thanksgiving Day, this is a short week for Carolina, I’m tired of seeing this team win, and I finally think they meet their destiny.  This is probably first match up all season that they face an offensive line that’s better than their defensive line.  The return of Tony Romo is huge, I don’t doubt he’ll still be rusty, but the running game improved, the offense will stay on the field a lot more, and that will help the defense as it did last game.  Greg Hardy also should be fired up for this game, and I expect it to rub off on this defense as they will force the Panthers into a few turnovers.  The crazy thing is the Panthers have only been on the road 4 times this season in 10 games.  They don’t have a win on the road against a winning team.  The Jaguars have a losing record, the Bucs have a losing record, the Seahawks are 5-5, and the Titans have a losing record.  Yes I know the Cowboys don’t have a winning record either, but this is a team that’s in a must win the rest of the year.  The intensity is there they are health, and Carolina is coming over on a short week.

EAGLES +8.5 / BEARS +14.5 3.3* NFL Teaser

I will tease the early and late game here in what I feel is an excellent spot.  This is a buy low sell high situation in the Eagles vs. Detroit as the Lions are playing well all of a sudden, and the Eagles are coming off one of their worst games ever with all kinds of rumors swirling. I just don’t see this team getting beat by more than a TD if at all to the Lions who have been awful on Thanksgiving Day.  Too many distractions in the early game for the home team with nothing left to play for.  The Eagles just 1 game back in the NFC East.

For the Bears, they are one of the best coached teams in the league and once again I like the road team.  Green Bay off the big win but this is far too much credit they made Teddy Bridgewater beat them which was expected.  It was cold I predicted Green Bay would win that game, but they didn’t look great doing so.  Aaron Rodgers shoulder is not 100% which is a HUGE factor that nobody is talking about, and it’s not like this defense can stop the Bears pass or rushing and expect the other to take care of itself.  The Bears have the weapons and coaching to beat you with the run or the pass, and this is a division rival that likely will be decided by less than a TD, but I like the value we get with the line move to grab them over 2 TD’s

Falcons -3 -120 5.5* NFL POD

The Falcons off a bye week along with the Colts, but I think this is a very tough game for the Colts starting a 40 year old QB.  I like the value we are getting here with the Falcons considering they lost 5 in a row ATS leading up to their bye while the Colts have been winning ATS.  Falcons here look to go a little up tempo in this game if you ready into some of the articles I believe the Falcons will covers this spread and win, but I'm buying the 1/2 point to protect my investment.

Raiders -3 +100 5.5* NFL POD

The Vikings going out west, with a huge look ahead spot as they will host the Packers next week at home.  The Vikings have also covered 7 straight games, and asking them to cover an 8th might be a little too much here.  Earlier this season the Vikings went out west and lost to the 49ers 20-3.  Derek Carr has these Raiders playing like a playoff team, and I would not be shocked to see them get into the playoffs as a Wild Card team considering the weakness of the AFC after the top 3 teams.

Oakland’s defensive weaknesses are against the pass, and the Vikings rely on the run much more where the Raiders are ranked 7th.  This is a good match up for the Raiders at home.  Meanwhile the Vikings rank 6th in passing defense, but they haven’t really faced any elite QB’s and Carr isn’t there yet, but he definitely has a ton of weapons and this passing offense is ranked 4th in adjusted ratings.  The Vikings have faced the following passing offenses in adjusted opponent rankings – 27th, 27th, 32, 8th, 30th, 16th, 31st, 15th to put things in perspective.  Carr has proven he can play well against good defenses, and he’s proven he can win games himself, Teddy Bridgewater has not come close to proving that.

Packers -2.5 5.5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

This is a classic situation where an NFL team got badly beat on prime time TV last week with the Broncos dominating the Packers.  Now they go on the road against a team that's undefeated and just won in OT on Monday.  If you have been following me you know I have been fading the Panthers and losing, and if they win again this week well I'll be okay with it, but I see the Packers getting all these headlines of can't win a big game and I think Aaron Rodgers will be ready for this.  The Panthers defense showed some weaknesses late in the game against the Colts that Rodgers can exploit for sure.  I also like the fact that the Panthers went to OT, and are on short rest here.  Their offense is not very good and very predictable at this point with no real WR threats.  Absolutely love the Packers here as it's my favorite play of the year! 

Colts +6 5.5* NFL POD

The Colts are 17-4 ATS following a loss with Andrew Luck at QB which is good enough for me with an over rated Panthers team.  Panthers are undefeated still, but rank 27th in total yards, and Cam Newton continues to throw the ball with some of the worst mechanics I have ever seen.  At some point he is just going to be unlucky.  I also think it's a difficult spot after a prime time win over the Eagles on Sunday night football last week and they will get Green Bay at home next week as a look ahead. I don't think the Colts have to do too much to cover this spread.  I'm not taking anything away from the Panthers defense, but they are going to go up against the best QB they have faced yet.

Steelers -1 5.5* NFL POD

Big Ben returns, but the Bengals are off the bye and looking unstoppable and continue to get a lot of respect in the betting market, but I'm not completely sold on this Bengals team.  The Steelers offense is extremely explosive and has really flown under the radar.  This is the first week they are completely healthy it seems.  In the beginning of the year the Steelers challenged the Patriots

Andy Dalton has a hard time against the Steelers, 79.2 QB rating in 8 career games and the Bengals are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings with the Steelers.  Red flag is the fact that the Bengals have not faced a top 10 rusher with the exception of Jamal Charles who averaged over 6 yards per carry and they rank 28th in yards per carry.  Pittsburgh 4th running the ball 4.7 yards per carry.  This is a perfect scenario for Big Ben come come back to with Laveon Bell running the ball Big Ben can operate with balance.  

Also Bengals defense on the road in the red zone not very good 83% red zone TD% allowed.  Pittsburgh's defense has played much better here at home allowing 40% and even held the high flying Cardinal offense to 13 points.  I love the fact that the Steelers are off a loss which gives us additional line value.  On the flip side the Steelers are very good in the red zone especially at home as you might expect with a balanced offense.  So are the Bengals, but I think they are very one dimensional on offense.  They have talented running backs, but rank 20th in yards per carry.

Colts +10.5 5.5* NFL POD

Who have the Patriots played or beat so far? Their win at Buffalo was impressive, but they forced a ton of turnovers.  Not to say they can't do the same thing against Andrew Luck and the Colts, but this is an enormous price that Bovada is offering and I'm taking the Colts here with Andrew Luck's return.  At some point you get over the hump and you beat the team that has been dominating you and the Patriots never looked as good while the Colts never looked as bad and we have a double digit home dog here in prime time with Brady's so called "revenge" game on the Colts who brought the "deflate gate" to light.

I would think the Colts have just as much revenge here in this game, and I expect them to play their best game yet with the return of a healthy Andrew Luck.  The key for the Colts will be stopping the Patriots running game and getting ahead early.  The Patriots will score points as they always do this offense is just as good as last year, although they lost a key guy in Nate Solder off the offensive line.  The Patriots defense however is not the same.

Patriots only gave up 6 points to Dallas last week, but Dallas had 18 first downs to the Patriots 20 and that was without Romo and all of their offensive weapons.  The Steelers the first week of the season probably should have won as they put up 434 yards of offense, but again had key turnovers in the red zone, and Bills who started the game terrible were moving the ball on the Patriots offense with ease.  The losses or departures of Wolfork, Revis, and Browner have not shown their impact in the box score but going on the road for the second week in a row against a Colts team that I believe has been waiting and preparing themselves for this game will finally win.  Yes.. I believe the Colts will have a chance to win this game for a change.

Oakland Raiders +4 5.5* NFL POD

I love the Raiders in this spot coming off a bad loss on the road there is clearly line value with them.  Majority of the public are just assuming that the Broncos are the Broncos at 4-0, but the fact is they are very lucky to be 4-0, and the Broncos offense is a shell of what it once was meanwhile Oakland's offense is quickly becoming one of the best in the league with all of their young talent!  Denver's offense ranks 31st in yards per play with just .1 more than the 49ers.  Perception definitely does not tell you that and Oakland's offense ranks 12th.

The Broncos have dominated this series in the past, and their defense has played extremely well, but they have not played a top 15 offense yet so I think the pressure is really going to be on Peyton Manning to produce a come back win and I could easily see the Raiders winning the game outright they always seem to step up big in these situations and I don't think they are too far away from being a factor in the division.  A win here and there will be a lot to talk about.

Redskins +7.5 3.3* play

I like the Redskins right now they are playing great defense and this is far too many points even for the way the Falcons are playing right now.  The Falcons offense is great, but their defense has also struggled ranking 27st in yard per play.  The Redskins have been + yards in every one of their games so far despite their opponents having the most plays per game they rank 4th with 288 yards allowed per game and have also been really tough to score on in the red zone at 37.5% while Atlanta's red zone defense ranks 25th.  Falcons also looking ahead to their division rival game on Thursday against the Saints. 

Chiefs -3 / Bills +5 

Chiefs are not as bad as their record they played 3 hopeful Super Bowl contenders.  The Bears were extremely lucky to get a win last week and I just see them losing this game pretty handily to the Chiefs who will have some success offensively with Jamal Charles going up against a run defense that ranks 26th in run defense.  Chicago has some issues with injuries along their offensive line and that should lead to a lot of 3 and outs, and even mistakes by Jay Cutler.  Either way it does not look good for their defense today which will be on the field a ton.

On the flip side I like the coaching edge for the Bills, and I think the value is right.  People are over reacting to their struggles against the Giants last week.  I was on the Giants as our POD, but I think they are a better team than they showed.  Rex Ryan will have his defense this week going up against a rookie QB.  The Bills should force some turnovers and should win this game.

Giants +5 5.5* NFL POD; Giants +200 1* 

Giants could easily be 3-0 now as they have led nearly all 12 quarters but instead sit at 1-2 and have a ton of value here on extra rest.  This is a well coached team and Buffalo is off a huge divisional road win.  I honestly don't see the Bills as focused this week and they are getting well over a field goal so I really can't get excited for that and back the Bills.  I think the extra prep will do the Giants good and they always seem to be in the game and I see nothing changing this Sunday.

Miami Dolphins -2.5 5.5* POD

I am grabbing the value here on the Dolphins as their public perception right now is super low, but this is still a very good team.   They nearly lose at Washington to open the season, and then they come back to lose in their own state to the Jaguars who looked awful in week 1.  I told many that the Jaguars would be better this year and unfortunately I just didn't have the guts to take them in week 2 after week 1.  Either way this team goes back home where the defense can be dominating while the Bills go on the road and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 in Miami.  I think this is a challenging game after their 2 home games, and I don't expect them to be able to win.  

Rex Ryan and the Bills really sold out to beat Tom Brady, and I see a little bit of a hangover or let down spot here having to travel to Miami.  Still people are high on the Bills, because they gave the Patriots a bit of a fight at the end, but many predicted the Dolphins to be better in the off season.  I still think we have a better offense from Miami with a more experienced QB who is back at home, while the Bills and Dolphins defense are both very similar in overall talent although Buffalo didn't look it last week.  This is almost a must win for each of these teams, and I think the home team has a major advantage.

Cleveland Browns +2 5.5* NFL POD

I am backing the Browns here at home, this line has moved about 5.5 points from where it should be and was before the season.  Both teams are predicted at 6 wins and the Browns should be 3 point home favorites.  However, oddsmakers know the public have short term memory and are only looking at the 31-10 loss at the Jets, and the Titans impressive domination of the Bucs on the road.

It's very difficult to win on the road in this league. It's very difficult to win with a rookie QB on the road in this league.  This week Marcus Mariotta and the Titans have to do both for the second week in a row against a defense that was ranked in the top 10 last year.  This is a step up in competition and if the Browns down't turn the ball over 5 times like they did a week ago we should see a win and a cover.  I also like Johnny Manziel with a full week of practice and reps with #1.  He actually did not look bad vs. the Jets, but unfortunately the Jets defensive line is nasty, and he should have much more time this week vs. the Titans. 

Falcons +3.5 4.4* NFL POD

The Eagles are getting 60% or more of the action here and I saw this line creep up to 3.5 and I grabbed it!  The Eagles put up 36, 40, and 39 points in their first 3 games in the pre season, and have a ton of hype adding the pieces they did under Chip Kelly's offense.  The Eagles are highly bet by the public to open this season for good reason, but we can not ignore Matt Ryan's success at home and some of the changes the Falcons have made in the offseason.  I believe we are getting tremendous value here on the Falcons as a home dog.  I truly believe the Falcons can play and score right with the Eagles here tonight.  Ryan has a healthy offensive line and some dangerous weapons at his disposal, but the difference will be the defense. 

Dan Quinn takes over as the new head coach and they have added a lot of defensive minded coaches.  This will no longer be a soft Falcons defense under Quinn and DC Richard Smith, and Raheem Morris. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Sam Bradford hurt before the game is over in this one.  I really did not understand why the Eagles let Nick Foles go, but Bradford is not really an upgrade here and Demarco Murray came off a career year behind the league's best offensive line.  Expect the Eagles to make the mistakes that allow the Falcons to win this game and set the tone for their 2015 season.

Rams +4.5-- 5.5* MAX NFL POD

I even like the Rams to win this game outright.  This is a very early start for the Seahawks along with it being week 1.  I think the Seahawks have a lot more issues going into this season than they have had in the past with turnover, and their offensive line.  This OL has had some major issues and that's not a good match up going into week #1 against the Rams who have arguably the best defensive line in the league featuring Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Aaron Donald, Nick Fairley and Michael Brockers. 

Of course the Rams are without Todd Gurley, but I expect them to find creative ways to score, and the secondary of the Seahawks may not be as good especially if Chancelor is not back for this one.  Either way I like the value I'm getting here on the Rams and head coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best in the league and they did beat the Seahawks here at home last year along with Denver.  They have plenty of talent at the skill positions to give the Seahawks a big scare and I will probably bet they do pull the upset to start the season.

Seahawks +2 5.5* NFL POD; Seahawks +8 / Under 54.5 4.4* 6pt teaser

The value here is on the Seahawks when you look at the fact that the Patriots were to be 3 point under dogs before any games started last Sunday if in fact it ended up Patriots vs. Seahawks.  Many books were releasing those lines, but the way each team got here is very different and public perception right now is the Patriots are better.  Even with the deflategate because most people feel that did not even help the Patriots, but I'm going to jump on this game before several consequences are handed out.

Bottom line is the Patriots struggled vs. top tier rushing games and tough defensive lines.  The Seahawks probably have the best combination of defensive line and secondary and then add in the fact that they are 3rd vs. the run.  Patriots struggled vs. the Bills who also have an excellent defensive lines and multiple times vs. the Jets and Dolphins and Chiefs.  I expect Seattle with 2 weeks to prepare will be well prepared and they always say defense wins championships.  While the Patriots have a pretty damn good defense as well it resides mostly in the secondary and I think the Seahawks can really run the ball in this match up if they stay dedicated to it.  

Listen every team has a bad game and that's what happened to the Seahawks.  They are mostly a team that takes care of the ball, but for whatever reason they turned the ball over 5 times.  How many teams who turn the ball over win the game?  Not many especially when you are facing a future Hall of Famer at QB in Aaron Rodgers.  I just think people are down on the Seahawks because many feel the Packers choked the game away, but perhaps this will humble them as they prepare for another great QB in Tom Brady.  Seahawks defense will be plenty motivated when you think about the fact that they will have the ability to defeat two of the best QB's of all time in back to back years.  

Note all prop options are based on Thursday night's odds on Oddsmaker! 

Under 44.5 yards (-110) for longest FG of the game 2.2* play
This game features two of the best defenses and two of the best kickers, but I don't think either kicker will make a FG over 44.5 yards. When you think about the percentages There are 72 opportunities for the teams involved in their opponents throughout the season. In 18 games the Patriots only had 5 games with a FG over 44.5 yards and they only allowed one in 6 games while the Seahawks only had 5 over 44.5 yards as well and allowed their opponents 5. Both of these teams are aggressive and I feel like if they get down around the 30 they are likely going for it.

Field Goal 1st Points of Game +125 1* Play
The first score has been a field goal in 12 of the Seahawks 18 games. I think they dictate this game a lot and the field goal will be the first points of Super Bowl 49. Patriots came in at just 5 of 18, but still that's 17 of 36 which is essentially even yet we get the value at +125.

Lagarette Blount U62.5 yards -130 2* play
The over would be the hot play here after Blount just got done running all over the Colts with 30 carries and 150+ yards, but Blount never had more than 12 carries all year long. The Patriots have a tendency to not lean on 1 guy and I doubt Blount will get 17 carries which is approximately what he would need to get to 63 yards vs. the Seahawks who are 3rd allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Seattle will also game plan to stop Blount as they are very good at this compared with the Colts who were 24th. I also see a competitive game so I don't see the Patriots running it 30+ times as they only select running plays 40% of the time anyway.

Brandon Lafell U18.5 yards longest reception -115 1* play
Lafell is listed as questionable so he must play for this one which I believe he will. His toe injury could impact him here but that's not why I play the under here. New England is not a big play offense ranking 25th in big plays on the year while the Seahawks rank #1 in big plays allowed. They rank #1 in passing big plays allowing just 14 all year so I don't expect Lafell to have an impact on this game at all with long plays. Patriots are smarter than to attack a very good secondary like that. 

Luke Wilson Over 2.5 receptions-115 3* play
Seahawks TE group was really banged up this year and Luke Wilson really stepped up down the stretch. He's not really known as a big time threat, but he got plenty of targets down the stretch over the last 5 games having 3 or more in each and had 3 TD catches in his last 4 games. New England wants to and will take away the WR of Seattle with their excellent secondary so I believe Wilson will have a big role in this game. NE was ranked 4th in opponents most targets towards a TE at 6.5/game. Only 2 out of 18 games did the Patriots allow less than 3 receptions to an opponents TE. Seeing as Wilson is the only TE getting targets these days I would love to take the over here. 

Tom Brady U266.5 yards passing 3.3* play
Tom Brady will face the #1 passing defense in the league as the Seahawks have allowed 260+ yards passing only 4 times out of 18 games this season. Many of which they had leads where teams had to throw a lot. It happened just once in their last 14 games overall whle Brady threw for over 266.5 8 out of 18 games this year. I broke it down further based on yards per attempts to see how many passing attempts Brady would have to make to get over this number based on what he averages and what the Seahawks typically give up. Brady is 16th in yards per attempts at 6.8 yards which suggests he should attempt at least 40 passes. Seattle has only seen a QB attempt over 40 passes 4 times all year. Meanwhile the Seahawks have allowed just 5.8 which suggests that Brady needs to actually have 46 attempts. Bottom line this Patriots offense is not built on big plays and when you go up against one of the best secondaries 266.5 yards is a lot to ask and the Patriots are much smarter than this. Take the under for Brady in this spot.

Seahawks -7 5.5* NFL POD

The Seahawks will return to the Super Bowl.. So R-E-L-A-X relax as one of the most arrogant QB's of all time will go down this Sunday by double digits!  First of all Aaron Rodgers is clearly not healthy in the beginning of games and the Packers struggled for 3 quarters to move the ball consistently on the Dallas Cowboys.  Now they turn up the competition and go on the road where they have not played well all season.  Seattle's defense is playing better than it has all year and I think this is just a mismatch.  The Packers do have the better QB, but defense wins championships and it's too bad that Rodgers can use this strained calf as an excuse.  He seemed to be pacing himself in the game on Sunday which was smart and by the 4th quarter he was lose and almost appearing to be 100%.

This offense topped 30 points only once on the road this year and it was against the Chicago Bears defense that was depleted at the time. The Bears finished the season ranked 30th in yards per play allowed on defense.  Seattle is #1 currently while the Packers are #1 on offensive yards per play they are 9th when it comes to yds/play on the road gaining nearly 1 yard less.

Cowboys +5 5.5* NFL POD

Of all the road teams this week I think Dallas has the best shot at coming out on top.  Everyone is piling on the Cowboys and the officiating from a week ago but I still think this Cowboys team is more focused and ready to continue their run for a rematch in Seattle.  They are 1 of 4 teams with a top 10 rushing and top 10 passing attack, and the only one with a top 5 of both.  Green Bay's defense is going to struggle in this game.  The other two times they faced a top 10 balanced attack they lost and gave up 200 yards rushing in both games. I expect much of the same here with Dallas picking up nearly 200 yards rushing and controlling the game.

Tony Romo never gets the credit he deserves and even if Suh was held like crazy on the last play of the game last week I think it's finally time for Romo to win a big playoff game and earn the credit.  Romo had a 121.8 QB rating on the road this year and nobody else is even close.  He benefits from having the best rushing team in the league, but he's played smart.  Demarco Murray should be fresh in this game coming off just 19 carries vs. the Lions and Romo has 4 legit weapons to pass to in Beasley, Witten, Williams, and of course the diva Dez Bryant.  All 4 bring something different to the table.

Dallas still has to defend, but they seem to be getting better as the season goes along. They were #3 in the league in opposing QB rating on the road holding 8 QB's to a combined 81.2 QB rating.  Although they haven't played someone as good as Aaron Rodgers, they just seem to be a very good road team that I would like to back at this point in the season. 

Ravens +7.5 5.5* NFL POD
I am going to grab this line right now.  The Ravens have proven that when they are in the playoffs they are one tough team to beat.  It's a combination of Joe Flacco being so cool and their coach John Harbough who is one of the best in the league.  Harbough is 9-4 in post season play and 2-1 in New England including a game that they arguably should have won. That's not to say that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick aren't great in their own right, but over a TD is just too much when you consider that the Ravens are the physical type of team the Patriots hate to play and struggle with.  The Ravens strengths are up front along the defensive line they have the run stuff unit that is among the best in the league led by Ngata and Suggs and Dumervil are terrorizing off the edge and could give Brady some issues.  Bottom line this Ravens team was the best in their division all year long and proved that by moving on yesterday.

Lions +7 5.5* NFL POD

I will take the Lions here in this spot as the Cowboys really have not played well at home this year with all 4 of their losses coming here.  I really do not trust either QB in this spot, but the Lions defense is much better than the Cowboys and they match up well being able to defend the run.  They were #1 in stopping the run this year and allowed the 2nd fewest points and yards.  They also did all of this with a more challenging schedule.

The Cowboys have been able to hide some of their defensive weaknesses this year by controlling the game with the ground game, but they enter this game with Demarco Murray having nearly 400 carries, around 80 more than any other back.  I think it's a high risk play against a physical defense to back the Cowboys as a TD favorite.  I could easily see Dallas defense getting into trouble against Detroit if they are on the field for too long.  I will take the team with the better defense getting this many points especially when their strength equally matches the strength of the opponent. 

Cardinals +7 -115 buy hook - 5.5* max NFL POD

I suspect this game will jump to 7 by the time the game kicks off, but I'm comfortable with the Cardinals at 6.5 as well.  Carolina has been on fire winning 4 in a row, but they have had the 22nd ranked strength of schedule to get into the playoffs they played teams ranked with some very bad defenses including the Saints (31st), Falcons (32nd), Bucs (25th) and the Browns (23rd).  The point spread is based all off the fact that the Cardinals have no QB, but my friends despite what the media portrays this game of football is about more than just 1 position.

The Cardinals are 11-5 and are off two losses so the public is far down on them and Vegas has set an inflated line here and the value is certainly on the Cardinals.  This is a team that has played Denver, KC, San Diego along with Philly, Dallas and Detroit and their normal division games.  They have the 10th toughest schedule and went 11-5 all without a QB.  I'm trusting Bruce Arian and his coaching ability here.  I expect him to have Ryan Lindley ready to go in this one and I would not be surprised to see the Cardinals win the game outright! 

Under 48 5.5* NFL POD

Steelers -2.5 3.3* play

close your eyes and picture Steelers vs. Chiefs on neutral field.  Who would win or who would be favored?  The oddsmaker's are saying it's the Chiefs, and I may seem like a square here today, but I'm taking the Steelers.  The Steelers defense has been horrible and the Chiefs offense looked great a week ago, but I find it hard to believe the Chiefs offense can look that good back to back weeks.  The majority of the year the Chiefs offense has struggled and even though the Steelers struggle on defense I still think this defense can put together a solid game against a one dimensional attack.  The Chiefs still don't have a WR with a TD reception this year while the Steelers are #1 in the league in offensive yards per play.

The Steelers have a balanced offense and the entire strategy of the Chiefs defense is getting to the QB.  That is just not going to happen when you have one of the best QB's in the league and a balanced offense.  At this time of the year I like to say defense wins championship and the Chiefs definitely have the better defense but they are flawed.  They can't stop the run 30th in the league allowing 4.9 yards per carry and their secondary is suspect when their terrific pass rushers don't get to the QB. Big Ben has been sacked just 1.49% of his drop backs over the last 3 weeks.  I expect the Steelers to win to stay pace with the their division foes.

Cowboys +3.5 3.3* Play

I liked the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and now I certainly can not go against that just 3 weeks later.  Tony Romo is a different QB here tonight in my opinion as he just really was no healthy on Thanksgiving.  The Cowboys have the revenge, but they have 3 extra days of rest which is a huge huge deal at this point in the season.  The Cowboys offensive line will have a deciding advantage when you look at the physical game the Eagles had to play just a week ago against the Seahawks.  It's also interesting to note that the Cowboys have played better on the road on defense all year long.  That's mainly due to the fact that the Cowboys will stick to the running game longer on the road.  It's the best game plan for them and I think it works tonight just because of the extra rest and given the opponent that the Eagles had to face a week ago.

What is also impressive is that this Dallas offense is #1 in third down conversion % overall and on the road due to their excellent run game.  The Cowboys also won't have to deal with a stacked box if the Eagles are smart about it as a healthy Tony Romo can pull off the play action game better than any QB.  The extra game preparation off a loss with revenge will give the Cowboys an excellent chance to keep the Eagles off guard while the defense should have a good game against Mark Sanchez who for the first time this year is facing a defense for the second time.  A lot of people are giving Chip Kelly credit for what he does following a loss, but... 3-0 This year and his wins have come against the Texans, Titans, and Rams which neither of those 3 teams are going to the playoffs.  Last year this Cowboys team whose defense was atrocious held the Eagles to 3 poitns in their own building.  That was after this elite offense that was putting up 30pts off back to back games.  Chip Kelly is good, but it's worth mentioning he's 5-14-1 ATS in his last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Vikings +8 5.5* NFL POD

In the last match up Teddy Bridgewater really struggled with 0 TD and 3 interceptions against a good defense, but Bridgewater has really progressed since then and this Vikings team has been covering games.  I still think the Lions are over rated and although their offense is healthy they face a Vikings defense that knows them pretty damn well.  The Lions have only scored 30 points 3x this year all vs. shitty defenses which the Vikings are in the average to above average tier.  The Lions are also 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games following a 30+ point game in their previous game.  It's a good trend to look at, because just as you think Matthew Stafford is about to turn the corner he comes up with a bad performance.  Stafford is a records hoarder, but I don't see him as a leader of a team that can win meaningful games in December.  I won't be shocked if the Vikings come up with the divisional upset here.  The Vikings are playing their best when and where it matter, in the red zone.  Over their last 3 games they have allowed opponents to score just 30% of the time and they themselves have scored 75% of the time.  Those trends continue here today.

Colts -1 / Bengals +8.5 4.4* Teaser of the Week

The Colts know if they win this game they lock up the division and I think they should win easily while the Bengals go on the road to play a Browns team getting a ton of credit right now.  It is still the Bengals division to win and I think they put up a fight with the teaser giving us great value here.  Manziel makes his first start against a very good defense and I wouldn't be surprised if they gave him a lot of trouble here.  Welcome to the NFL Manziel on a huge stage with a game your team needs you to win.

 Broncos +1 5.5* NFL POD

I like the Broncos here I have been saying for weeks that the Chiefs are over rated. Everyone thinks of the Chiefs as a top tier defense and for the most part they are, but this defense has one glaring weakness and it is stopping the run.  The Chiefs are ranked 32nd allowing 5.0 yards per carry and they are allowing 5.6 over their last 3 alone.  Denver's 3 road losses came to the Rams where they only rushed the ball 10 times, the Patriots 17 times and the Seahawks 20-36.  Denver should take the lead first in this game and use the running game to close this one out.  They are undefeated when they run for more than 100 yards and I think they can easily get that tonight if they stay dedicated.  Peyton Manning will not hesitate to hand the ball off more times than he throws especially in a game where his defense can handle their own facing one of the worst offenses in the league.

The Chiefs go up against the Broncos run defense which is #2 in the league and #1 in rushing defense on the road allowing 3.1 yards per carry.  I think it's just a bad match up and this the type of game the Broncos made acquisitions for in the off season to win.  I see them winning big and I'll take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD

There is no way I can trust Mark Sanchez in this spot.  Philadelphia’s defense is not good enough to carry this team and they are susceptible against the run on the road allowing 4.4 yards per carry which is a full yard more than what they allow at home.  Dallas is 2nd in the league in rushing yards per carry behind arguably the best offensive line in the league.  The Eagles have all three of their losses at home and have not faced a team in the top 10 in rushing yards per carry since the Redskins in Week 3 who they gave up 34 points to and barely hung on at home 37-34.  Dallas is #1 in adjusted line yards at 4.57 compared with Philadelphia at 3.34 ranking 30th.  Dallas has found ways to win all season long and their aggressive defensive style should force some critical mistakes for the Eagles on the road. 

Teasing Lions -1 / U53.5 for 3.3* play BONUS

Lions losing 4 out of the last 5 games ATS, Bears 2 straight wins and covers at home against crappy teams.  Value on the Lions.  The Lions have gone under by an average of 9.6 points per game.  In their 8 games against non-elite offenses the Bears are allowing under 20 points per game.  Both offenses have star players, but have been underperforming this year as the Bears are ranked 17th in yards per play while the Detroit Lions are ranked 27th.

Also both defenses have been great in the red zone. Chicago allowing just 51% TD % in the red zone ranking 11th, and 48% on the road while the Detroit Lions come in at 12th, but allowing just 42.86% on the road.  Detroit’s offense who you would give an edge at home is ranked 24th in red zone TD% and is only converting 46.67%.  I think this is a lot of points on a short week with both offenses really not blowing anyone away.  Overall I think the Lions have the stronger defense and are the more desperate team following 2 straight losses on the road while Chicago is off 2 straight wins.

Texans -1.5 -105 5.5* NFL POD

Raiders +7.5 4.4* NFL POD; Raiders +295 1* play

This is a perfect let down spot for a Chiefs team that has been playing over their head.  Why can't the Raiders break their losing streak? The Chiefs have been outgained in 3 games in a row yet they are 3-0.  Besides this is a division game and the Raiders should be up for this.. It's almost their Super Bowl in a way and the Chiefs come off a very very big win against Seattle and have to go on the road before getting Denver at home the following week.  Off a big win with a big game on deck facing an 0-10 team on the road.  It's hard for any team to not look past the Raiders right now.  The Raiders only lost 24-30 in Seattle and I think their offense has more potential than Kansas City. 

[b]Seahawks +1.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b]

The Seahawks are a dog on the road to the Chiefs?  They have no business being a dog here considering the Chiefs have been really lucky of late.  Last week the Bills fumbled 3 times including once in the end zone and their head coach passed up field goals that would have given them the win over the Chiefs.  The same thing the week before as the Jets outgained them by nearly 100 yards.  Yes, the Jets out gained them and now they are favored against a team that is in the top 10 in yards/play in offense and defense.

The Broncos are the only opponent in the top 14 in yards/play offense that this Chiefs team has played and they lost.  The Seahawks will win this game and look forward to their next game against the Cardinals to reclaim the division.

[b] Packers +1/Saints -1 4.4* 6 point teaser[/b]

The Saints suffered a rare loss at home to the 49ers under Sean Payton that just does not happen. They had won 20 straight prior to that and are a ridiculous 19-2-1 ATS in their last 22 games.  Now the Saints get the Bengals angry after losing at home and getting embarrassed on Thursday night, but the Saints are in a thick division hunt and I doubt they care about that.  I look for the Saints to win this game, but 7 points is a lot and it’s mainly due to the fact that the Bengals looked awful vs. the Browns.  The reality is the Bengals are not that bad, but I don’t see them winning this game. I’ll take the Saints in a teaser with….

The Packers.  The Packers have been almost unbeatable at home.  Aaron Rodgers is just too good and he’s beaten good QB after good QB.  He has yet to throw an interception at home and the Eagles are coming in high off their win with their new QB Mark Sanchez, but now Sanchez has to win on the road against a very good team.  I have trust in Sanchez in this system, but he’s got to put up 30+ points here and I don’t see it happening not the way the Packers have played at home.

BILLS -1.5 5.5* NFL POD

Tampa Bucs +3 2.2*/

Cardinals -1/Packers -1.5 6pt tease 4.4* play

[b]Bengals -6 4.4* NFL POD[/b]

I'll go with the home team here on the short week.  The Browns are not a good football team despite their record and they are getting more credit than they deserve.  The Browns are 5-3, but their last 4 wins came against the Titans (big come back), Oakland, Tampa Bay, and PIttsburgh (who was playing their 4th road game 5 weeks).  The other 3 are a combined 3-21 and they lost to the Jaguars 24-6 in between.  They were very lucky to even get by the Titans at the time when Jake Locker got injured before the half when they were trailing by 25 points to the Titans.  This is not a team of destiny and they are going to fade fast especially without Alex Mack.  Without Mack the rushing offense went form averaging 154 to 54.

On the other side the Bengals who opened the year as everyone's dark horse to challenge the Broncos for the AFC Championship are 5-2-1.  However, looka t who they have played, New England, Baltimore 2x, and the Colts.  Those are some of the best QB's in the league for you fantasy football fans out there.  Now the Bengals get to face the Browns unimpressive passing game and a rushing game that's not going anywhere especially on the road.   This is a very good home team and I see them dominating this game as they have to in order to keep their distance in a tight division.  

NY Jets +10 5.5* NFL POD & Game of the Month!

lock this in early as the line will surely go down.  I really like Mike Vick with a full week to prepare and play with this offense he really adds another dynamic that Geno Smith clearly did not.  Also as bad as the Jets looked they actually out gained the Bills on Sunday and doubled their # of first downs.  6 turnovers will get you beat no matter what.  At this point the Jets have to go back to the run and adding Mike Vick's versatile style to the mix can only help with a full week of reps with the first team.

For the Chiefs their offense is not explosive enough to take advantage of the Jets weaknesses which is in the pass defense.  The Jets are absolutely stout in the front 7 and have one of the best defensive lines in football.  The Chiefs will run first and pass second even with Andy Reid and their offensive line is 28th in pass protection and they are just 25th in passing yards per pass attempt.  When you look at the Jets secondary they have played 3 of the top 5 passing teams + Tom Brady.  Right now stock is as low as it's ever been for the Jets and I'll jump on them to cover this spread on the road.

Saints -2.5 5.5* nfl play of the day

Saints +115 5.5* NFL POD

If you are going to win on the road in the NFL you better be able to protect your QB and run the ball.  A quick look and we know how dominating the Lions have been up front as they are leading the league in sack %, but a quick look reveals they have yet to face an offensive line in the top 15 of the league.  The Saints are 3rd in protecting their QB and they do a good job in run blocking to as the Saints are 2nd averaging 5.2 ypc.  Here is a look at the pass protection units the Lions have faced this year... 31st, 18th, 22nd, 25th, 16th, and 23rd.   They lost to both the 18th and 16th pass protection units and I think the Saints are desperate for a win.

The Saints off a bye and they will come into this game a little healthier and ready to turn their season around.  This team has always been a bad road team, but I'm just not that impressed with the Lions this year and this is a tough spot for them playing the Saints who are 2nd in 3rd down conversions to go along with their offensive line play against the pass and run.  Detroit is also without Calvin Johnson most likely which is definitely worth a few points.  I still think Mathew Stafford is one of the more over rated QB's blessed by having a freak of nature at WR for his career.  On the flip side Detroit is 30th in protecting Stafford and 31st with just 3.2 ypc.  IF there was ever an opportunity for the Saints to turn it around on defense this is the game.  

Falcons -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD

Listen both of these teams were supposed to have a better record at this point in the season, but they don't.  Bottom line is the Falcons are home and their home field advantage is probably worth more than 3 points.  Falcons are averaging over 500 yards at home while the Bears are averaging less than 300 on the road and though it has a lot to do with the competition both faced I think in the end it will be the Falcons that have more capability to move the ball with a balanced offense.  Atlanta is capable of moving the ball via Matt Ryan but this team is also running the ball well in the top 10 in yards per rush.  That's a big issue for this Bears defense that is not your Father's Bears defense.  The Bears have shown that a good running game and a good passing game can beat them.  Chicago is ranked 21st vs. the run and 25th in yards per pass attempt.  Atlanta #3 in the red zone in TD% and #1 in yards/play.  Falcons major advantage at home and need this game.