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NFL Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-05-14	Cleveland Browns v. Tennessee Titans -1	Top	29-28	Loss	-110	5 h 43 m	Show
*Titans -1 5.5 NFL POD** This won't be the most exciting game I give you that, but I like the Titans to get back on track and win at home. They get Jake Locker back who is still an upgrade over Charlie Whitehurst. The Titans have had a tough schedule to start facing 4 playoff teams in my opinion. They won at KC who looked great at home vs. the Patriots on Monday, they lost to Dallas who arguably has the best offensive line in the league, at Indy to a very good team, and at the Bengals to a team that has many picking them as the team that can beat Peyton Manning. Not a lot of cupcakes on the schedule there, but facing the Browns this week and Jaguars next week their is potential for the Titans to be sitting at 3-3. The Browns are ranked 27th vs. the pass and 29th vs. the run and 31st in yards allowed per play. Titans should be able to move the ball and even though the Browns are off a bye it won't matter. Titans are actually 1-3 because they have turned the ball over and can not convert on third downs. They have faced 3 of the top 10 3rd down defenses, but today they face the Browns defense allowing 38.5 yards per drive (ranked 28th in the league). Cleveland is also 18th in the league in forced turnovers.
09-29-14	New England Patriots -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs	Top	14-41	Loss	-100	3 h 43 m	Show
Patriots -3 +115 4* NFL POD There is tremendous value right now on the Patriots. They have not looked good on offense and the defense has carried them through their two wins on the season. Their defense is definitely improved and go up against a Chiefs team that is particularly weak. The start of the season has definitely changed a lot of the public's perception on the Patriots, but this team will be just fine and in the mix to go to the Super Bowl again by the end of the season. The offensive line is having growing pains, but I think we see an improvement this week and the offense will surely benefit. Most of the public is thinking about the fact that the Chiefs went to Miami and dominated 34-15 while the Patriots lost 20-33. I'm not.. This team always gets up for Monday night covering 9 of their last 13. I also like the Patriots for the unfortunate fact that the Chiefs are down a lot of starters already early in the season. They are without 2 opening day starters on offense and have replaced those guys with two rookies and on defense they are without 4 starters from their opening day roster as well. Bottom line this Patriots offense has nowhere to go but up and with Brady in the mix that's going to happen sooner rather than later. What better time than on Monday night with many doubting the 2014 Patriots. Their defense has been elite allowing 272 yards per game which is good for 2nd in the league. KC's defensive unit is ranked 16th. New England is #1 from a yards/play perspective while KC is 19th. On offense KC is ranked 29th in yards per play while the Patriots are ranked 32nd.. Again not going to last with Brady. I expect the offensive line issues to be a thing of the past and we will see a different game plan here tonight.
09-28-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 v. Pittsburgh Steelers	Top	27-24	Win	100	38 h 35 m	Show
TB Bucs +9 5.5* MAX NFL POD Am I crazy after the Bucs lost 14-56 in embarrassing fashion against the Atlanta Falcons? Maybe I am, but when you parlay that with the fact that the Steelers dominated the Panthers on the road and I think we get tremendous value. Oddsmakers know they can get away with a high spread here, but in my opinion Tampa is not as bad as they looked (5 turnovers had a lot to do with it), and the Steelers are not as good as they looked. For one the Steelers have some major issues on defense with the loss of 3 top defenders. They are so thin on defense they brought James Harrisson back. Talk about being desperate. Tampa will likely start MIke Glennon here and that makes me more confident going into this match up when you look at what Pittsburgh has struggled with which is defending the run. The Steelers uncharacteristically are allowing 5+ yards per carry while the Bucs average about that. Plenty of value here on the Bucs who should be able to move the chains with their passing game now that the Steelers are without Ike Taylor and the running game with Bobby Rainey and Doug Martin.
09-25-14	NY Giants v. Washington Redskins -3	Top	45-14	Loss	-110	4 h 33 m	Show
*Redskins -3 5.5 MAX NFL POD** First of all the Giants have played sloppy all year long and if they can't run the ball there does not come to be successful. Ironically the Washington Redskins have been excellent against the run andto excellent rankings in Houston Texans and the Philadelphia Eagles yet their rank number one in run defense as far as ypc is considered. After the Redskins are top 10 team for yards per play on offense and yards per play allowed on defense and their basically a pk vs. the New York Giants. I don't think so I think this line is way off and I think the oddsmakers are setting it because the Giants didn't just beat the Houston Texans at home while the Washington Redskins lost the Houston Texans on the road. However now that RG three is gone Kirk cousins is taken over this offense and he fits into the system much better. Cousins in the Redskins have averaged 38 points per game since he's taken over and the offense is really clicking. For the Giants have played sloppy all year long I don't really see that changing. Even in their win last week Eli Manning had turned the ball over and it wasn't a smooth gain. I don't see how the Giants will be able to move the ball consistently in this scheme which is what there and I have to do because the Redskins can score and move the ball. The Redskins not only are number one in the league against the run but they are number one in sack percentage and it's a major weakness of the Giants. Protecting the quarterback is crucial when Eli Manning is taking snaps and if they can't do that this scheme should be a blowout.
09-21-14	Houston Texans v. NY Giants +107	Top	17-30	Win	107	12 h 4 m	Show
Giants -1 5.5* NFL POD The stock couldn't be anymore on these New York Giants but it still Eli Manning versus Ryan Fitzpatrick.Houston is to it on the Giants are owing to but the Houston Texans had the ball last week for nearly 70% again but they were still outgained by the Oakland Raiders. I said the Oakland Raiders.Houston Texans were also looking by the Redskins on the season Ryan Fitzpatrick is only averaging 170 yards passing per game while the running game is carrying this team. It's a bad matchup for Houston because of the rushing game will have its hands full with the Giants who are holding opponents in check, ranked sixth in yards per carry run defense. Go to sleep. The Giants defense has been good when you think about the position the offenses put them in. Eli Manning has not had a lot of help from the running game he has not had a lot of help from his receivers dropping passes. However in this game he will face Houston who is allowing 5.8 yards per carry which is worse in the league. Go to sleepHouston does have a difficult scheduling spot having to travel to Oakland then back to Houston and now to New York. I have a lot of respect for Tom Coughlin as a coach and Gill have this team ready. The teams played extremely sloppy to start the season and again everybody is against them and usually when everybody is against one team that's when they usually shine especially when you are backed by a solid head coach.
09-15-14	Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Indianapolis Colts	Top	30-27	Win	100	4 h 47 m	Show
*Eagles +3 4.4 NFL POD** I will go with the Eagles tonight, because I think they are the better team. As long as the zebras do not impact this game for the home team I think the Eagles will win this game. It is no secret that their is a lot of love out there for Andrew Luck and that he's an elite QB in this league. However, he's backed by a defense that is just very bad especially with out Robert Mathis running around and he does not have a supporting running game. Trent Richardson still has not proven that he can play at this level, but the Colts keep throwing him out there since they made a huge investment. Eagles defense should get a few stops due to the fact that they'll know what's coming in this one dimensional offense. For the Eagles their offense should be able to move the ball well and the public image is already distorted from their slow start against one of the worst teams in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, the Eagles outscored the Jaguars 34-0 down the stretch and they feature an elite offense with the best running back in the league along with weapons all over the field for Nick Foles. If the Eagles don't win or cover this game it will be because of the referees.
09-14-14	Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Tennessee Titans	Top	26-10	Win	100	29 h 38 m	Show
*Cowboys +3.5 5.5 NFL POD** The public is so far off this team right now and it's giving us tremendous value. Last Sunday the 49ers went into Dallas and went u 21-0 and most people changed the channel as it was the Cowboys defense looking awful again and Tony Romo making unecessary mistakes. However, very quietly the Cowboys shut the 49ers offense out in the second half and for the game the Cowboys had more yards and first downs. This defense is clearly improving and the team showed resilience in a tough spot against a top 3 team on opening week. I think Romo is a great leader and I think he will play well this week now that he was able to shake some of the cobwebs loose. For the Titans they went into a highly touted KC building and came out with a dominating win 26-10. The stock could not be higher for the Titans after that victory. The new coach, Jake Locker back and all of a sudden the Titans are headed to the playoffs... Not so fast.. I'm not high on that KC team I really think they have no offense and when you can not convert third downs you are going to have an advantage over your opponent's defense. KC's defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes. I expect more from Dallas who has a balance attack, elite receiver, top 10 QB, and an under rated running back that when healthy is a top 5 or 10 tailback int his league. Expect the Titans to come back down to earth this week as the Cowboys shock them in a possible outright victory.
09-11-14	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5	Top	6-26	Win	100	5 h 50 m	Show
Ravens -2.5 4.4* NFL POD The media has blown the story up about Ray Rice and rightfully so, but that has chased a good portion of the public bettors over to the side of Pittsburgh and I"ll stay with the home team who has a lot to prove tonight and a win could certainly avoid some questinos about Ray Rice. The Ravens have been preparing for life without Rice for some time and the Ravens have capable back ups. The Ravens did not play bad last year and actually out played the Bengals in certain circumstances. For instance they moved the ball well 26 first downs to the Bengals 16 and overall they played better in a tougher match up on the road against the Bengals. Steelers blew a 27-3 halftime lead against the Browns and sneaked in a win with a field goal late. The Steelers gave up 183 yards on the ground and nearly 400 overall. They were outscored 24-3 in the second half which to me just screams that they are just not in shape yet. With a short week this early in the season I think Pittsburgh is in big trouble. I don't think it will help their cause as the Ravens will just have the upper hand at home on the short week early in the season.
09-08-14	NY Giants +6 v. Detroit Lions	Top	14-35	Loss	-100	1 h 29 m	Show
*Giants +4.5 4.4 NFL POD** The Giants confidence level from the public probably has never been lower and as a serious bettor this is a good thing. We can easily find value on this team and it starts tonight when they play in a Monday night media hyped game against the Detroit Lions who more and more people love this team and their offense due to their big time fantasy football players. However, I'm looking at this game from a strict value perspective and the Giants have it as they have always been a very good road team under Tom Coughlin. Coaching is a huge advantage here for the Giants who by far have the better staff when you look at the Lions their hiring of Jim Caldwell makes me a bit curious. Caldwell is a good offensive coach or maybe he just got lucky along the way when he was the Colts assistant and their QB coach under Peyton Manning. I say under Manning, because I do feel it's the other way around when you get lucky with a player like Manning and Caldwell has definitely cashed that ticket more than once now in his second stint as a head coach. However, he lacks any sort of discipline which is what I think this Lions team is missing. I really think as bad as the Giants looked in the pre-season they will look 10x better in week 1. Giants never like to tip their hat too much in pre-season and I truly think Eli Manning is capable of picking up a new offense despite what it looked like in the pre-season. I expect the Giants to control this game and I really like their chances of pulling off the upset against the over rated Lions.
09-07-14	New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +3	Top	34-37	Win	100	15 h 16 m	Show
*Falcons +3 5.5 NFL POD;** The Saints are a very popular team, because of their fantasy value and they have played well in Atlanta, but I full expect Atlanta to rebound as they have done some nice things in the off season. The biggest addition they get to start 2014 is the return of a healthy WR duo in White and Jones. Matt Ryan still had a great year last year now he gets those two guys back and then he adds the best tackle from the NFL draft in Jake Matthews and arguably the best half back to back up Stephen Jackson in Devonta Freeman. Falcons have a lot to prove this year and I think it will start this Sunday by defending their home turf and defeating a quality team in the New Orleans Saints.
02-02-14	Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos -2	Top	43-8	Loss	-100	141 h 27 m	Show
*Broncos -2 5.5 MAX NFL POD Both teams come into this game with their own strengths and at 3 losses a piece we saw where each team was most vulnerable. For Denver it's their defense particularly in pass coverage and for Seattle it's their run defense. The teams that showed success in beating Denver this season had to control time of posession and to do that you have to pick up third downs and have a QB that has poise in the pocket. Russell Wilson has been fantastic, but he just simply does not have the weapons to stay on the field. Their offense really struggled down the stretch and they were ranked 18th in third down offense converting just 37%. San Diego who gave Denver all kinds of issues was 2nd and had more of a pocket passer in Phillip Rivers. San Diego was also 2nd in TOP where Seattle is 17th. To beat Seattle you have to be able to stop their running game and you have to be able to pound the ball because their pass defense is just so good. However, Denver's rushing attack has been hit or miss, but for Seattle they have not faced an offense with this many weapons all year. When you look at the opponents they have faced they have faced on 1 team in the top 10 in scoring and that was the Colts who they lost to. They only faced 2 teams in the top 10 in yards per play and Denver is #1. While they are great in pass rush and pass coverage Peyton Manning is just too smart and he'll let Richard Sherman take away Demaryious Thomas he still has Welker, Decker, and Julius Thomas and others while Monte Ball and Knowshown Moreno have shown explosiveness towards the end of the year as well. Seattle is weak against the rush ranked 13th and Arizona showed as well did Tampa as two poor rushing teams ranked 28th and 26th in ypc that you can run at this defense as both teams ran for over 139 yards on the road. The Seahawks are small in their front 7 and only played 4 teams in the top 10 all year in rushing ypc while on average they faced an opponent ranked 19th. For Denver their key is to stop Marshawn Lynch and in my prop package I go on extensively on how they were very good against top 10 rushing attacks. Seattle is ranked 13th in ypc and Denver held many of the 9 top 10 rushing attacks under control while going 8-1 against those teams with their only loss coming at the hands of Tom Brady who had a great come back. Denver ranked 7th in ypc allowed and 4th in yards allowed on the season and really buckled down in the playoffs. I really think this defense played better than I gave them credit while Seattle's offense played worse than I thought they would. Denver's strengths are much stronger than Seattle's and I do believe Seattle has more weaknesses that Denver can exploit. Denver has far too much experience and the NFL is now an offensive league I don't care how cold it is it seems as though the offensive team forces its hand much more often than the defensive team and that favors the Broncos big. I would not be shocked if we saw the Broncos run away with this game, because I just don't think Seattle can score with Denver. Over 3.5 Field Goals +125 (Risk 1 Unit) I've got the over in this one as Seattle was #2 in the league this season allowing just 39.02% TD's in the red zone while Denver ranked 28th at 62.12%. Denver was #1 in red zone offense with 72.73% of their opportunities resulting in a TD, but they struggled over their last 3 at just 57.14% while Seattle ranked just 14th, but only 25% over their last 3. Both teams also have 2 experienced kickers in Matt Prater and Steven Hauschka who can kick it in the cold. I think both defenses will have the advantage in this situation. First Score of the game = Field Goal/Safety +120 (Risking 1 Unit) I see a lot of value in this line because of what I mentioned from both teams in the red zone, but looking at the numbers there have been 36 games played by these two teams this year and it's an exact split with 18 of the 36 being having a field goal as the first score of the game. Only 4 of the Broncos 18 games resulted in a FG being the first score of the game. Those 4 games were against the Patriots, Chiefs, Giants, and Texans. That sounds amazing only the Broncos faced just one team that was ranked in the top 10 in red zone defense and they faced that team in week 1 at home when the Ravens defense was basically rebuilt and not performing at the time. They faced 5 of the 6 worst teams in red zone defense and their division was very bad, Chargers who they played 3 times were ranked 24th, Oakland 22nd and the Chiefs 16th. Seattle really struggled to get the ball in the end zone down the stretch and I like that Denver's strength is defending the run. Seattle really lacks a red zone threat and that's going to make it hard for them. The first score in both of the Seahawks playoff games have been field goals and that's been the story in 8 of their last 9 games and in reverse of Denver only 4 games of their 18 resulted in a TD being scored first which is proof that we have the value at +120. Seahawks U132.5 Rushing Yards -110 (Risking 1 Unit) I like the under here, because the Broncos have been a very under rated rushing defense ranked 7th in ypc allowed and 4th in yards per game. Broncos were 10th in big rushing plays allowed which is in the company of the 49ers and the Cardinals teams Seattle struggled to run on this year. That's the only way I see the Seahawks getting over this number but with the extra time to prepare I just don't see them finding those type of holes in a game this big. Denver has played their fair share of mobile QB's in Vick, Pryor (2x), and RGIII and have kept them under control. In Fact the Broncos have faced 9 of their 18 opponents who are ranked in the top 10 in rushing ypc and have only allowed 107.33 in those games with only 3 going over the 132.5. While the Seahawks have played just 8 games against top 10 rushing defenses and only averaged 112.5 compared with their season average of 112.5. Under 1.5 Total Interceptions +110 (Risking 1.5 Units) Both QB's take care of the ball as Denver was ranked 2nd with a 1.46% interception percentage of passing attempts, while Russell Wilson was 7th at 1.94%. Denver was ranked 18th at forcing interceptions this year and they could have been worse considering how much they were probably able to gamble being up big in games. Now Seattle was ranked 1st in opponent INT%, but they faced only 3 QB's that I would consider elite. Drew Brees 2x, Andrew Luck, and Matt Ryan and those 4 games resulted in 0 INT's on 146 passing attempts. Peyton Manning Longest Passing Completion U37.5 Yards -110 (Risking 2 Units)** I'm taking the under here not only did Seattle only allow 15 passing plays over 25 yards all year over 18 games, but the Broncos mostly dominated the weak passing defenses facing just 3 opponents in the top 15 in big passing plays allowed. In those 3 games Manning attempted 153 passes with only 1 pass going for more than 37.5 yards which was a 38 yard connection to Demaryius Thomas against the Titans. Seattle has a great pass rush and sure tacklers on the back end. Manning won't take a chance at getting sacked as he led the league in being sacked the fewest times. I expect him to be getting rid of the ball quick with a balanced running attack meaning this play has plenty of value in my opinion.
01-19-14	New England Patriots +5.5 v. Denver Broncos	Top	16-26	Loss	-104	50 h 13 m	Show
*Patriots +5.5 -104 5.5 NFL POD** Denver's defense has looked almost elite recently, but lets cool down a bit the loss of CB Chris Harris is a big one and they are already without Von Miller. They have only faced 6 opponents in the top 10 in scoring offense and 2 times it was KC who is only at that level because of their defense. They faced Dallas and allowed 48 points, New England and allowed 34 (31 in 1 half), Colts 39, and the Eagles 20 - who were still with Mike Vick. Now New England's offense has evolved and I think it's going to be extremely challenging for the Broncos to come up with a game plan. I wouldn't be shocked if Brady and co came out firing and throwing it 40 times after last week's run first campaign, but they can clearly run the ball too as Lagarrette Blount showed down the stretch. I just think we are getting tremendous value on the Patriots with more than a field goal to play with. Under Bill Belichick the Patriots are 20-8 ATS when they are under dogs 3.5 to 9.5 points and they are 45-26-3 ATS in their last 74. The line is marked up a bit because of the great season Peyton Manning had and everything he has to prove, but don't think for a second that Tom Brady doesn't have something to prove. Most people still consider Brady the worse QB of the two and Brady still wants another ring and there is a reason he is 18-7 in the playoffs while Manning is 10-11 and Brady is 10-4 straight up vs. Manning. Overall it's a team game and I think the Patriots have the better team and coaching staff and I think we are getting some line value here especially since it went back up to 5.5. Don't forget the Patriots turned the ball over 3 times and handed the Broncos a big 1st half lead and I'm not so sure the Broncos wouldn't have lost by 20 points had that not happen. I'm predicting the Patriots to win this game outright although I'll only wager on the side since I already have a futures play pending on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.
01-12-14	San Diego Chargers +8.5 v. Denver Broncos	Top	17-24	Win	100	6 h 38 m	Show
[b]Chargers +8 4.4* NFL POD[/b] The Chargers are still flying under the radar and really came down the stretch playing their best football. Last weekend they won despite losing their best offensive linemen to a stinger, but I expect him back this week which will only help. Nobody played the Broncos tougher than the Chargers did this season. The Chargers were the only defense to hold the Broncos under 400 yards and they did it twice by limiting the number of plays by controlling the time of possession. There is nothing that Peyton Manning can do to fix that. It will be completely up to the defense of the Denver Broncos to limit what Phillip Rivers and the Chargers do to control the clock and I don't think they are up to the task. The Chargers are running the ball as good as any team in the league behind their offensive line and Ryan Mathews and the always under rated Danny Woodhead. There is also something to be said about playing a divisional opponent in the playoffs because that means it is the third time you face a team. If anything this game should stay close because these teams know each other well. Peyton Manning did not have an extra week to prepare against the Chargers, because he did not know they were going to win until last week. Manning who has struggled in the playoffs for whatever reason has also struggled against the Chargers defense many times. I see his possessions being limited by the Chargers who will dominate the time of possession again.
01-11-14	New Orleans Saints +10 v. Seattle Seahawks	Top	15-23	Win	100	5 h 21 m	Show
*Saints +10 4.4 NFL POD** Once this jumped to 10 points this morning at several books I just could not pass up the value. I realize the Saints got smoked here earlier in the season in what was a huge game which set up home field advantage and that the Saints have struggled on the road. However, I think the fact that the Saints did play here in a BIG game where the world record was set for noise in a Stadium means they will be better prepared or at least better prepared for what happened that night. Drew Brees is already making adjustments as well as Sean Payton for this big game. I think having a bye is sometimes a disadvantage and I think the Saints are starting to click after winning a big road game last week where they put up 185 yards rushing. Mark Ingraham, Khiry Robinson, and Darren Sproles were great against the Eagles and I think that's where they can beat this Seahawks team. The Seahawks are not a big bunch in the front 7 and all year long when they have struggled at home it's been when they gave up some rushing yards. Take a look at the Tampa game where they had come back to win 27-24 as a 16 point favorite. Mike James rushed for 158 yards that game and then their game against the Cardinals at the end of the season they gave up 143 yards rushing in a 17-10 win. The Saints only rushed the ball 16 times in their last trip to Seattle and coming off a game where their rushing game worked gives them plenty of confidence to run it 20+ times and if they do that I see them covering this huge number. Both the Cardinals and the Bucs did not have a QB like Brees and I think Brees can have a decent game here today against this secondary. For the Seattle offense they struggled down the stretch and were no longer putting up huge numbers. I think their offense can do enough to win, but it's going to have to be by running the ball against the Saints defense. Russel Wilson has plenty of weapons now that Percy Harvin is back, but you have to wonder just how healthy Harvin is and just how hard he's going to play. The Seahawks are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 home games and that trend just can not continue and I think there is a lot of value in laying 10 points because Vegas is pushing this number so far up there.
01-05-14	San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals	Top	27-10	Win	100	13 h 5 m	Show
[b]Chargers +7 5.5* NFL POD; Chargers +250 1* bonus[/b] If today's games were any indication that the NFL is now an offensive game even in the playoffs then I don't know what else to say. The Chargers have a better offense in almost every statistical category. Rivers is 5th in yards per play and #1 in third down efficiency, but the biggest reason for Rivers resurgence has been the play of a healthy offensive line. You see dividends being paid to the running backs as well with Ryan Mathews coming on strong and the always fun to watch Danny Woodhead. Down the stretch though Keenan Allen has been great and some would say even better than A.J. Green who was held under 100 yards receiving in all 6 of his last games. Allen had 5 TD's in his last 3 games and has a 67.6% catch rate on targets to Green's 54%. We are getting tremendous value here because the public's perception on the Bengals is extremely high because they have won and covered all 8 of their games, but this is the playoffs and Marvin Lewis has yet to win here and Andy Dalton is just far too inconsistent and makes too many mistakes that are magnified in these type of games. The Chargers are playing with house money and even have a little revenge after they lost 17-10 at home to the Bengals in a game that was decided by turnovers. Rivers and the Chargers have been on a roll since and are the hot team that I think can do a lot of damage in the playoffs. This is not the same Chargers team that would easily lose on the road and it's finally Rivers time to step up and get a big win in the playoffs after being so dominating in December over his career he's truly an elite QB and the Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 January and 0-4 ATS int heir last 4 playoff games.
01-04-14	Kansas City Chiefs -114 v. Indianapolis Colts	Top	44-45	Loss	-114	4 h 41 m	Show
Chiefs -1.5 4.4* NFL POD U47 2.2* bonus The under is 20-6 in the Chiefs last 26 games after allowing 150+ yards rushing in the previous game and 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games vs. a winning team. For the Colts the under is 15-6 in their last 21 home games and I really expect them to struggle today. The Chiefs gave up a ton of points down the stretch which really gives u some value here because their defense was really worn down to close the year. They just played these Colts a few weeks ago where Andrew Luck had 23 points on the road and I think they hold him under that total. Three times this year Andrew Luck faced a defense for the second time and 3 times he scored less points and this time he goes against a rested defense that's tops in the league. Luck is a star in this league, but the elite defenses are just a bit ahead of him as far as making adjustments. For KC their offense gets to face a bad rushing defense on the road and that has only happened once this year and they won 23-13 on the road over Buffalo. I really think this offense was held back in recent weeks once they knew they were not going to get the bye and would likely face the Colts in round 1. Chiefs offense has scored more the second time around this season 24 to 56 and 17 to 28 vs. Denver and Oakland and then 38 to 24 vs. the Chargers without their starters in there. I expect this offense to put up something in the 20's while holding the Colts in the teens.
12-29-13	Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +3	Top	33-28	Loss	-105	5 h 8 m	Show
Bears +3 5.5* NFL POD
12-22-13	New England Patriots v. Baltimore Ravens -2	Top	41-7	Loss	-105	23 h 45 m	Show
*Ravens -2 5.5 NFL POD** Here come the Ravens again, and the Patriots come off a tough loss that was way over due in my opinion. The Patriots have been on a miracle run that finally ended, but almost didn't last week in Miami. I'll fade them here again, because they continue to beat bad teams and their injuries at this point in the year have just become too much. Nate Solder suffered another concussion last week and the offensive line has been in flux all year for these Pats. Tom Brady has done wonders and deserves a ton of credit. However, now he has to face a top 10 pass defense again and he's struggled big time against those. The Ravens are also 3rd in third down defense and 3rd in completion % this is a team that Brady won't be able to just dink and dunk down the field with ease. The Ravens are not afraid to get agressive and pressure these WR. For Baltimore it's been the Super Bowl hang over, but their offense all of a sudden is clicking. Dennis Pitta is a big reason for that and Joe Flacco continues to play his best when his team really needs him. I think this game will be another example of that as the Ravens need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
12-16-13	Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions -5.5	Top	18-16	Loss	-103	2 h 24 m	Show
[b]Lions -4.5 4.4* NFL POD / Lions -3 -120 1H 2* play[/b] The Ravens have not played a winning team in over a month and are dead last in yards per play. Their offense has been very bad all year long and now they have to go on the road to play the Lions in an environment that is tough to play in. Detroit is 2nd in the league with 6.4 yards per play at home, and they are 7th overall. Stafford is due for a huge game after the Lions have slipped and lost 3 of 4. I expect him to bounce back with a huge game on Baltimore. Baltimore has allowed 105.8 QB rating in road games and they lack a corner that can cover any type of big name receiver like Calvin Johnson. The Lions also get Reggie Bush back this evening which should make for some more offense for a team that's anxious after playing in the snow bowl last week against Philadelphia. Baltimore's only chance is to get to the QB and pressure him which they have done a good job of, but Detroit is 2nd in fewest sacks allowed. The Lions will give Stafford time which is not going to be good news for the Ravens.
12-15-13	New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins	Top	20-24	Win	100	3 h 49 m	Show
[b]Dolphins -1 5.5* NFL POD[/b] This is the exact time of year where playing Miami becomes a challenge from northern teams. Temperatures in the mid 80's and high humidity is something that you can't just get used to in a couple of days and because of that Miami will have an advantage. The Dolphins are also fighting for a playoff spot and traditionally have always played the Patriots tough. The Patriots have been pulling off insane victories and that simply can not continue especially on the road against a team that knows them as well as the Dolphins do. The Dolphins had the lead in New England at half time and were dominating the Patriots before Brady and co made half time adjustments and won. The Dolphins remember that and I think they will have some revenge here. They simply are playing much better football since the Johnathan Martin ordeal has been put to bed, winning 3 of their last 4 to get back into contention.
12-08-13	Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints OVER 46	Top	13-31	Loss	-110	22 h 10 m	Show
Over 45.5 5.5* NFL POD Okay Carolina's defense gets a lot of hype, but who have they faced? They have faced just 3 teams inside the top 15 in yards per play while the Saints are #6 in the league and by far the best the Panthers have faced and they have to do it in a loud dome in a controlled environment. Drew Brees also should have a bounce back game I can't see this offense scoring less than 20 points in three straight games. The Panthers on the other hand should be able to put up points they put up 44 and 35 on this defense last year. The Saints defense is strong vs. the pass because of their pass rush, but that's not something you can rely on with Cam Newton's ability in the pocket. I think the Panthers will be able to score some points and at least get to 20 in this game because of their running game and how good their passing game is when they are able to effectively run the ball. The Saints -3 looks like the biggest trap on the board on Sunday and I'm not falling for it. We are not taking the Panthers -3 either, because I do believe the Saints will put up points in this one and this line on the total gives us value since it was in the 50's last year. The Panthers are a dangerous team on the turf and they'll show it here. Over in their last 4 games on turf. The Saints offense always seems to show up in big games at home and they are 11-4 on the over in their last 15 vs. a winning team.
12-05-13	Houston Texans -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars	Top	20-27	Loss	-115	3 h 53 m	Show
Texans -3 4.4* NFL POD[/b] It's not often that you see a 2-10 team as a road favorite at a 3-9 team that has won 3 of their last 4 games. However, the Texans have been in most of their games and even nearly upset New England last week. Gary Kubiak is back on the side line which should only help. Many believe they would have beaten the Colts if Kubiak didn't miss that game and they nearly beat the Chiefs on the road too. The Jaguars have just been awful at home all year long and part of it is the pressure of playing at home and nowt hey have to face a pissed off Texans team that wants revenge for their 6-13 loss just two weeks ago at home. I think part of the reason why the Jaguars have played better on the road is because teams have just been checking those games off as wins, but the Jaguars are going to struggle to move the ball against a Texans defense that is still ranked #3 in the league meanwhile the Texans should be able to rebound from the 6 points they put up against the Jaguars last time. The offense showed a clear improvement from having Kubiak on the sideline in last week's game.
12-02-13	New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 47.5	Top	7-34	Loss	-108	8 h 8 m	Show
*Over 47.5 4.4 NFL POD** There are a couple of reasons why I like the over which includes the reason I could not play the Seahawks even thought I wanted to. One reason is Seattle is without their nickle corner and starting corner backs. It is unknown how the other two will play, but with extra time to prepare you better believe that Drew Brees will make sure he takes advantage. To me that means Brees is going to put up points in this game especially since Seattle has struggled guarding TE's at point this year. On the flip side Seattle will get there points as well and I believe they will score over 30 in this game. Dating back to last year when they really opened things up a bit more for Russell Wilson this team has put up big numbers on the scoreboard when facing a team that struggles defending the rush. The Saints are 28th this year allowing 4.8 ypc and in the Seahawks last 7 games against the bottom 3rd rushing defenses they have put up the following point totals 28, 58, 50, 41, 33, 28, 45. I don't think it's a coincidence that when they are able to run the ball Russell Wilson is just that much more dangerous. The extra time to prepare will definitely benefit the offenses who in this day of age of the NFL are always ahead of the defenses. The Saints are over the total 7-0 in their last 7 following a bye while the Seahawks are 13-3 over the total in their last 16 following a bye. I think we get some value here on the total based on the Seahawks "defensive" label and home field as well as the fact that The Saints "defense" has been better and just got done winning 17-13 against the Falcons in a low scoring game, but those two teams know each other extremely well. Seattle and New Orleans do not and that will benefit the offenses. The over is also 11-3 in the Saints last 14 vs. a winning team while it's over 23-8 in the Seahawks last 31 vs. a winning team. The bigger the game the more these offenses have advantages. This should be an exciting game that I can see either team winning if Seattle's secondary is exposed, but either way I feel strongly about this over.
12-01-13	Tennessee Titans v. Indianapolis Colts -4	Top	14-22	Win	100	2 h 24 m	Show
Colts -3.5 5.5* MAX POD[/b] This is a huge game for the Colts and despite being blown out in 2 of their last 3 games a win today and they will have essentially wrapped up the division. Colts have been great following a loss in the Andrew Luck era going 8-0 and they are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 following a SU loss. This year they have beaten the 49ers by 20 on the road and Denver at home by 6 following a loss. Colts will face the Titans this time in a match up they have dominated. The Titans are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. the AFC South and 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games with revenge following a home loss to the same team. Tennessee is off a road win last week so here comes your let down vs. the Colts who were embarrassed last week in Arizona which we predicted. I think the biggest reason why I see the Colts dominating this game will be there decision to start Donald Brown over Trent Richardson. The Titans have given up multiple TD's to running backs in 5 of their last 6 games which should open things up a bit for Andrew Luck. Brown had 14 carries for 80 yards and 2 TD's in the last match up. This Colts team actually went on to dominate the last match up after they fell behind 14-0. The move to Brown will allow them to get a head start and have a lead at half time for the first time in a long time. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been great, but he's due for a game where he makes mistakes and I think this will be that game.
11-28-13	Oakland Raiders v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 47	Top	24-31	Win	100	23 h 59 m	Show
[b]Raiders/Cowboys Over 47 5.5* NFL POD[/b] This is my top play for Thanksgiving and I truly love it. First of all you have two teams that don't know each other very well on the account that they only face each other once every 4 years. If you blindly play the over on these AFC/NFC match ups you win money. I'm not blindly playing the over as I think the Cowboys defense which has been atrocious for most of the season will struggle again on Thursday. First of all they just came off their game of the season and I think the play of their defense was disguised by the weather and now they go back to Jerry World in a controlled environment. Their defensive line is all banged up and Oakland has proven they can put up points no matter who plays QB and that will be the case tomorrow. After all Dallas did allow the Vikings to score 27 on them at home and Oakland put up 28 on a much better defense just a few weeks ago. With that said I also expect Oakland's defense to struggle. Dallas knows they have to win this game with their offense and Oakland does not have much time to put in a game plan on defense. In fact I think both offenses will benefit from the short week in this day and age of the NFL. Take the over as I predict Romo and the Cowboys win a high scoring game 34-24.
11-24-13	Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +115	Top	31-34	Win	115	9 h 52 m	Show
*Patriots +117 5.5 NFL POD** Very rarely will you see the Patriots lose 2 in a row or even be under dogs in back to back weeks. Early in the season I thought this Patriots team was not very good, but it's evident that they are getting their weapons back and the offense has clicked in back to back weeks against two very good defenses. The Patriots have been dominating the second half of seasons for quite some time now and the same will happen this year as I see them finishing at 12-4. This game is much bigger for them than it is for Denver who is coming off a huge divisional win and will have to travel next week to Kansas City. Meanwhile the Patriots just came off a big loss to the Panthers on Monday night. Unlike some teams who can not come back and win under the pressure, Tom Brady and the Patriots are as good in this situation as any. Under Bill Belichick the Patriots are 37-21 ATS following one or consecutive losses. They are also 40-20 ATS as an under dog. Peyton Manning is 2-9 all time on the road against the Patriots who have a harder time vs. mobile QB's. Their secondary has not played that bad this year allowing a 78 QB rating which is good for 8th and they have a 64.7 QB rating at home. It's going to be a frigid night in New England and the tougher more emotional team will win and that's the Patriots who need this game more!
11-18-13	New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers	Top	20-24	Loss	-100	3 h 5 m	Show
[b]Patriots 4.4* NFL POD[/b] Originally I leaned the Panthers, but after researching the game more I just could not bring myself to back the Panthers off an emotional win like they had last week beating the 49ers in their own building in what basically declared them "Super Bowl Contenders." For one I don't think the 49ers are that good and even though we scraped by yesterday with the 49ers +3.5 as our POD the game revealed a lot to me. #1 the 49ers can't protect their QB and Kaepernick can not make quick decisions. The Panthers have played absolutely nobody other than the Seahawks and then the 49ers and the Cardinals who are 6-4 and tied with the 49ers. Their offense put up a total of 23 points in those three games. The Patriots defense is not nearly the juggernaut of those 3 defenses, but the Patriots offense is clicking at the right time. The Patriots put up 610 yards on a Steelers defense that does not allow a ton of yards. Patriots are always great in the 2nd half of the season and have always been great after a bye. Bellechick will have his team motivated and Brady is probably the most competitive QB in the league. Now that he has a healthy offense he should be able to avoid some of the sacks. The Panthers have not faced an offense that's even close to what the Patriots do and the Patriots have not even been at their best this year. Yes, the Panthers can get to the QB, but I think coming off a bye that the Patriots pass defense will be well prepared for what the Panthers do to get to the QB. When you look at the offenses and the pass blocking of those offenses that the Panthers have faced its no shock why they are getting a ton of hype. The value is on the Patriots here and I'll take them to win outright too!
11-17-13	San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints	Top	20-23	Win	100	18 h 17 m	Show
[b]49ers +3.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b] I believe the 49ers win this game outright. They are coming off a loss and are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss and they face a Saints team that just destroyed the Cowboys in the national spot light so clearly they are going to get an inflated line. Vegas knows they can reel in some extra bettors on this game on the Saints side and capitalize when the 49ers win the game. First of all for the 49ers it's as simple as winning the rushing battle. They are 6-0 when they run for more yards than their opponent and 0-3 when they don't. I think this is a terrible match up for the Saints and the 49ers should be able to run on the Saints who are 32nd in run defense in yards per carry allowed while they are 22nd in rushing offense. SF is also 3rd in opposing QB rating and the Saints rely heavily on their passing game. The Saints have not faced too many stubborn teams like the 49ers who will grind out a game by running. I don't think they will be able to continue their success and the 49ers are a desperate team that can't fall any further behind the Seahawks and must stay ahead in the wild card chase. The 49ers will have success running the ball and that will mean Colin Kaepernick is having success too!
11-14-13	Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans OVER 42	Top	30-27	Win	100	24 h 11 m	Show
*Colts/Titans Over 42 4.4 NFL POD; Titans +128 1.5* bonus** I think we are getting some great value here on the total as both teams have played a lot of under teams this year giving us value on the over here. Colts just came off an embarrassing loss where they put up 8 points and you bet their offense is going to in my opinion abandon the running game to try to get off to a strong start. Andrew Lucky is a very talented QB, and I think he bounces back well following losses with the following point totals 23, 30, 17, 20, 20, 27, 39 and is perfect 7-0 SU and ATS following a loss. I think he will get to 20+ points and despite the Titans strong defense they are 30th in red zone defense allowing 65% TD's in the red zone. For the Titans, I think this is a must win for them and the Colts defense is not exactly playing well. They are 28th in yards per attempt allowed and we all know Ryan Fitzpatrick is not afraid to take chances down the field. He's a high risk high reward type of player and he's either going to be connecting on deep throws or throwing pick sixes. I think he'll have a good game against a suspect Colts defense. I mean Kellen Clemens was 9-16 for 247 yards and 2 TD's. Colts can not play man defense and Ryan Fitzpatrick is a pretty smart guy and should be able to beat whatever the Colts throw at him. I really do like the Titans to come up with the upset, but won't be surprised if Luck wins again after a loss. However, I'm not sold on the Colts right now their offense has not proven they can move on without Reggie Wayne, and although the Titans just lost to the Jaguars, the leagues worst team. That was something many saw coming as the Jaguars have played well in some games and were off a bye while the Titans were most certainly peaking ahead to this game. Take the over big and back it up a bit with the Titans on the money line.
11-10-13	Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons +4.5	Top	33-10	Loss	-105	5 h 39 m	Show
[b]Falcons +4.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b] Matt Ryan has been great at home and truly an elite QB, and now he's a home dog where he has dominated throughout his career. This Atlanta team has not given up on their season and a win here would really spark them in my opinion as they are fully capable of going on a nice run. They are starting to get healthy on both sides of the ball and the return of Rhoddy White will make the biggest impact of any. Seattle won't be able to stack up against the run with White and Tony Gonzalez, and they'll need to because they just allowed Zac Stacy and Mike James to both tear them apart in the running game for a combined 54 carries and 292 yards. I think Stephen Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers will have a huge game and Atlanta will find some balance. For the Seahawks they are now the team banged up as Sidney Rice is now out making that offense a bit less explosive. They are also many injuries up front with three offensive line men out now with Unger being added to the shelf along with Giacomini and Okung. Atlanta has some pass rushers and Seattle will be smart enough to keep it on the ground for most of this game and settle for field goals in the red zone. I just think Atlanta should have the lead late in this game with Seattle driving to win.
11-07-13	Washington Redskins v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 49.5	Top	27-34	Loss	-110	3 h 2 m	Show
[b]MIN/WSH U49 4.4* NFL POD; MIN +8 / U55 2.2* Teaser[/b] We have two teams that come into this game who have had very challenging schedules especially on the defensive end with the Redskins facing 7 top 15 scoring offenses out of 8 opponents with 5 of the 6 opponents being in the top 6 in scoring offense. With that said their defense can not possibly be as bad as they have shown so far. Same goes for the Vikings defense which has faced 5 teams ranked in the top 11 scoring offenses. Both teams prefer to run the ball, but have been forced to pass by falling behind early and that's going to change tonight as I see this game as a very close battle. Washington has run the ball 40+ times in two of their last 3 games while the Vikings got to 29 carries in their last game. Running the ball keeps that clock moving as you know and I think it's something that both teams are better at and will try to do tonight. The fact that the Vikings are 8th in the league in run defense as far as yards per carry are concerned leads me to believe they can stay in this game. It's also a tough thing to ask Washington to go on the road on short rest following a gutsy OT win over San Diego that included a goal line stand. I would lean towards Minnesota winning this game as they've been playing better lately, but Washington is better than their record indicates so I think Vegas is right on the money with this spread which makes the teaser worth while with the home dog since I feel we are getting great value on the total.
11-03-13	Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +115	Top	27-24	Loss	-100	13 h 50 m	Show
[b]Texans +110 5.5* NFL POD[/b] Both teams come off a bye for this game, but the Colts lost Reggie Wayne who was a significant part of this offense. Now they have to go on the road and face the NFL's best pass defense. The Texans are still leading the league in defense which is puzzling why they are sitting where they are sitting, but turnover margin has been the real issue. The Colts lead the league in fewest turnovers, but are 14th in forcing them. The Texans switched to Case Keenum and in his first start he had to go on the road in a hostile environment, but he protected the ball and made some plays down the field. 15/25 271 yards 1 TD and most importantly 0 interceptions and that was on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Now he gets the Colts at home while they are still solid they can't stop the run. Colts are ranked 26th in run defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Foster had 27 for 165 yards last year at home and the Texans can still run the rock while the Colts must respect the outstanding receivers on the outside in Andre Johnson and Deandre Hopkins who both had big plays at KC with catches of 42 and 35 yards while Devier Posey had a catch for 45. You can't simply stack the box against the Texans. I look for the Texans to win this game with their old style plays. Defense, running the ball and passing off play action without forcing things or turning the ball over. We get value here because the Texans have turned the ball over while the Colts have beaten the leagues 3 best teams, but Colts are more one dimensional with Trent Richardson only averaging 3 yards per carry.
10-31-13	Cincinnati Bengals v. Miami Dolphins +3	Top	20-22	Win	105	8 h 33 m	Show
[b]Dolphins +3 +105 4.5* NFL POD[/b] Classic buy low sell high situation for the Dolphins who had the Patriots game in the bag with a 17-3 first half lead before crumbling. I don't see the Bengals as that much of a better team but they did just dominate the Jets so they are getting too much credit in this spot as a road favorite on a short week. This is their 3rd road game in 4 weeks with another one on deck vs. Baltimore which is a much more important game. The Bengals are a different team on the road as they are 3rd in the league at home in opposing QB rating 60.4, but on the road ranked 19th with a 98.5 QB rating. The Dolphins meanwhile have allowed 2 passing TD's at home and only 5 in 6 games when you take out Drew Brees 4TD performance. This Dolphins defense is good and will keep them in most games. They are ranked 8th in red zone defense at home and 4th in red zone offense at home while the Bengals are 20th in red zone defense overall. The Bengals also are allowing 52.94 % third down conversions on the road as they have been struggling to get to the QB ranked 21st overall, but even worse on the road with a bad 4.94 % sack percentage. Give Tannehill time and he will produce and I see that happening here today as the Dolphins come up with a much needed win to get them back into the Wild Card discussion.
10-27-13	Cleveland Browns +7.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs	Top	17-23	Win	100	22 h 57 m	Show
Browns +7.5 5.5* NFL POD / Browns +300 1* bonus Last week we faded the Chiefs on our POD and we did the same thing the week before. We are doing it again here with the Browns who come in off two losses by 14 and 18 while the Chiefs remain the media's favorites as the only undefeated team. I've said it before and I'll say it again the Chiefs offense is not good. The Chiefs offense has benefited largely from good field positions actually they are #1 in field position. However, they are 27th in yards per drive. I'm not doubting this defense, but I'm doubting this offense as they are not good enough to be laying 7.5 points in this game, because the Browns defense is very talented. Cleveland defense is actually top 5 in rushing and passing yards allowed which is shocking when you think about the position their offense has put them in. Despite their offense not being very good they still have weapons in the passing game in Cameron and Gordon and this game should be a defensive battle that the Browns could absolutely win and shock everyone.
10-20-13	Houston Texans +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs	Top	16-17	Win	100	23 h 1 m	Show
Texans +6.5 5.5* NFL POD; Texans +205 1.5* bonus Buying low on the Texans in this spot after they got embarrassed at home last week and lost Matt Schaub. They go on the road to play a Chiefs team that to me is significantly over rated. The Chiefs won 24-7 over the Raiders, but that score was a bit misleading and actually when you look back at a lot of the Chiefs game this year the results have been misleading, but it gives us great value on the Chiefs opponent again this week. The Chiefs weakness is the Texans strength. Texans can still run the ball and with a rookie QB in there this week that's what they will get back to in what will be a gritty win. Case Keenum can sling it, but he's going to be asked to win with a simple game plan with running and play action and that will get good results vs. the Chiefs as they are ranked 30th in rushing yards per carry. Meanwhile the Chiefs offense has been putrid despite the high point totals. Chiefs have benefited from the best field position of any team in the NFL, but facing the Texans who are still a top 5 defense is not going to be easy. Houston is #1 in yards allowed and facing an offense that's one of the worst in the league.
10-17-13	Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals +7	Top	34-22	Loss	-120	12 h 18 m	Show
*Cardinals +7 -120 5.5 NFL POD/ Cardinals +235 1* bonus** Seahawks come into this game off a tough and challenging game on their own turft against a gritty tough Titans team without an offense. Now they go on the road as a TD favorite against the Cardinals who could win this game. The Cardinals are a similar team to the Titans although I believe they have more weapons on the offensive side of the ball with Fitzgerald. This will be Andre Ellington's coming out party tonight and the Cardinals top 5 defense will have a huge game. Russell Wilson has been great in the year and a half as the QB, but he often has to bring his team from behind and that's what we will see here. Unfortunately for him the Cardinals secondary is a ball hawking secondary that he may have some issues with especially since the Cardinals have the speed in their front 7 to keep him in the pocket. Cardinals won 20-16 at home to open up 2012, and then they lost 58-0 in Seattle which I'm sure they remember. Arizona held their own last week against the 49ers, but 4 turnovers in their own territory usually spells blow out, but they still had opportunities to win but fell short. Cardinals will clean up the turnovers and win with the defense int he end.
10-14-13	Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers +115	Top	9-19	Win	115	6 h 28 m	Show
*Chargers +115 5.5 NFL POD** This is a huge game for the Chargers. Actually I think it's a season changing depending on the result. The Colts meanwhile are coming off some big wins against the NFC Wests 49ers and Seahawks. It took every ounce of effort to hold off the Seahawks a week ago and now they have to travel across country to play a Monday night game against a team that's just going to have more energy. Colts also are going to be looking ahead to the Broncos who they will host next Sunday night. Nobody is going to admit to looking ahead to an opponent but Manning returning to Indianapolis is definitely something this team is looking at. The game against the Chargers is like a pre season game before the Super Bowl and the Chargers need a win to stay in playoff contention. What's new about the Chargers this year? They are able to protect the QB as they are ranked 5th in fewest sack% on the year with a 4.04%. King Dunlap is probable tonight and that's a huge key to this game. Rivers is flying under the radar here and is actually 2nd in the league to only Peyton Manning in QB rating. He gets the benefit of facing the Colts poor run defense thats' bottom of the league in ypc allowed. Rivers with a decent running game and protection is a top tier QB especailly off play action with a healthy Antonio Gates too. There is a reason this team is converting 71% of their red zone appearnces into TD's at home. Colts defense is allowing 70% TD's on the road and a good reason is because opponents are able to run the ball and it becomes harder to keep a team from a TD when you can't stop the run. The biggest reason why I love the Chargers tonight aside from the scheduling advantage is Phillip Rivers. The Colts have yet to play a pocket passer this season. They've faced Terrel Pryor, Collin Kaepaernick, Russell Wilson, Chad Henne, and Ryan Tannehill. Tanehill is the closest to a pocket passer and he beat the Colts in their own building. Wilson and Kaepernick are considered top tier QB's, but Wilson's numbers won't blow you away early in the game and Kaepernick has been off all year long. Rivers would be the best pure throwing QB this Colts team has faced and I think they could be in trouble especially when they set up third and short.
10-13-13	Oakland Raiders +9 v. Kansas City Chiefs	Top	7-24	Loss	-110	5 h 12 m	Show
*Raiders +9 5.5 NFL POD** I'll get a lot of crazy looks today in passing as I get asked who I'm on today as my POD, but that's why I've been so successful in my career on NFL POD's. KC has been nothing but great this year and hasn't lost game and will host the Raiders on Sunday with all the confidence. I love taking a dog of over a TD in a divisional game. The Raiders have always played well in the division. Their win last week over the Chargers was hidden because they didn't play until 11:30pm est last week so I think we still have a ton of value here. I'm not saying the Raiders are going to go on the road and get a win, but this team led the Colts on the road and lost by only 4. Raiders have a ton of team speed to give the Chiefs problems on both sides of the ball. First off Terrel Pryor is dangerous and the Chiefs did allow Michael Vick to rush for 99 yards on just 5 carries which also opened things up for McCoy who had 158 so watch out in this one as KC is 30th allowing 5.2 ypc. KC also likes to eat up the clock and I think Oakland's defense is flying under the radar where the Chiefs offense is still not as good as advertised. It helps to have the best average field position of any other team. In the end KC is 25th in 3rd down offense and 19th in the red zone with just 1 TD on 5 red zone appearances last week. Chiefs could be peaking ahead to their game against the Texans. The dog is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the road team is 21-6-1 ATS in the last 28.
10-06-13	Kansas City Chiefs v. Tennessee Titans +3	Top	26-17	Loss	-100	2 h 53 m	Show
Titans +3 +105 5.5* NFL POD This is another reason why I hope you have multiple books to shop because if you are stuck with 2.5 you'd have to buy points, but in this spot I still like the Titans to win outright. Everyone is pointing towards the Chiefs being 4-0 and how quickly people forget how lucky they have been. People will also point to the Titans playing without Jake Locker and it's the exact reasons why the public is pounding the Chiefs again today, but who is Jake Locker anyway. Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly capable of doing everything Locker was doing if not more. His football IQ is up there and he should be able to put the Titans in a position to win today. Luck plays a lot into betting and if you don't believe me then you were not on my Northwestern +7.5 play yesterday against Ohio State. The Chiefs have been very lucky. They have had the best average field position of any NFL team this season and it's made their offense look rather respectable. Chiefs will have issues picking up first downs today as the Titans are 6th in sack % and 5th in 3rd down conversions allowing just 32% conversions. The Titans have more offensive weapons and as good of a defense and have already put up big numbers vs. very good defenses (see Jets and Texans game). This is absurd that they are under dogs at home after starting 3-1 and I think they'll improve to 4-1 after today.
09-30-13	Miami Dolphins +7 v. New Orleans Saints	Top	17-38	Loss	-100	8 h 56 m	Show
[b]Dolphins +7 +100 4* NFL POD[/b] The Dolphins have cashed a ton for me this year and I did not expect to get this kind of value here again on Monday night football, but getting a TD against a Saints team that is flawed is something I can't turn down. The Saints are a one dimensional offense that can be beat with a good pass rush which is something the Dolphins clearly have. The Dolphins are actually also top 10 in some key passing defense categories including opponent completion %, opponent yards per attempt, and opponent QB rating. Now the Saints defense has been great allowing 13 points per game and has been tough to score on in the red zone. However, the Falcons are struggling to find consistency, the Cardinals can't move the chains and the Bucs are also struggling on offense. Those are the three teams the Saints have faced this year and any defense would find success in that situation in my opinion. In come the Dolphins who seem to have the perfect balance of running and passing on offense. Ryan Tannehill is enjoying a great start to this season ranking 6th in completion percentage and 10th with a 94.3 QB rating. What is most important is he's 3rd in moving the change picking up 50% of his third down attempts, and he's #1 in the red zone orchestrating an offense that succeeds with a TD 87% of the time. The Saints defense will be challenged tonight and they will give up some points. I think the Dolphins will have a shot to win this game because this is the best pass rush Brees sees all year and I don't think the Dolphins are prone to give up the deep quick scores that Brees uses to blow out teams on a Monday night. Close win for the Saints 23-20, but we will cover the spread.
09-29-13	Seattle Seahawks v. Houston Texans +3	Top	23-20	Push	0	23 h 14 m	Show
Texans +2 5.5* NFL POD Houston went on the road and looked bad at Baltimore while the Seahawks dominated the Jaguars and 49ers in their last two games. There couldn't be more hype on the Seahawks right now they are covering spreads and dominating teams. We actually had the Panthers in week 1 and should have covered that game against Seattle, but Carolina wasted a lot of opportunities that I don't think Houston will. 60% of the public is backing the Seahawks on the road who still have yet to prove to me that they can win with their QB on the road especially against a top 5 defense which they are about to face on Sunday. Yes the Texans are still a top 5 defense despite all of the points they have given up which have been the result of some bad luck and some poor team play. They gave up a punt return TD and a defensive TD to Baltimore and committed 14 penalties which cost them 14 points and more when you factor in what the penalties did to drives. Being back at home should change that and I think we are getting value on this line because of how they have lost and given up points. Houston's defense is actually ranked 2nd in yards allowed. Seattle has relied on their defense and their running game will have its hands full vs. Houston's front 7. I still think Houston is better on both sides of the ball this year from their draft pick of Deandre Hopkins and the return on defense of Brian Cushing. In the end this is Arian Foster's game and I'm predicting him to have a big one. The Seahawks allowed 5.2 ypc at Carolina and are ranked 18th on the year and Houston is arguably the best rushing team in the league when they commit to it with Foster and Ben Tate leading the way. I truly believe this is the game the Texans get back to the basics and dominate this game. They have to feel like they are getting slapped in the face being under dogs in their own building. Houston is 19-7 ATS int heir last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
09-26-13	San Francisco 49ers v. St. Louis Rams +3.5	Top	35-11	Loss	-105	11 h 39 m	Show
*Rams +3.5 5.5 NFL POD** Wow, the Rams have really been the one team I've backed multiple times that have let me down, but I think this is a make or break game for them and they always seem to play the best at home and Colin Kaepernick is getting figured out around the league. Maybe the game last week against the Colts was a hang over from their tough loss against the division rival Seahawks but usually teams in that scenario show a bit of life late in the game, but the 49ers did not. The last two games he is averaging less than 50% completions and has 0 TD to 4 interceptions. Now he goes into a hostile environment low confidence to face the Rams who had the leagues best pass rush which is about to show up in the loud dome. The Rams already played the 49ers tough last year tying in OT in San Francisco and winning at home in OT 16-13. 49ers are just banged up right now without Vernon Davis the offense has flat out failed. On defense it's a short week of preparation and they go on the road without their best two players in Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis. Teams do not just turn on a switch and win a big game like this. Over the rest of the season the 49ers will regroup but not tonight. The Rams are still under valued here and if they did not start slow in previous games would have a winning record. I look for them to get a quick start behind the home crowd tonight as Sam Bradford works the spread with precision for an opening possession TD. Rams came out with a big win last year at home on a Thursday night over the Seahawks and I think they show up again tonight.
09-22-13	Atlanta Falcons v. Miami Dolphins -1.5	Top	23-27	Win	100	24 h 14 m	Show
[b]Dolphins -1 5.5* NFL POD[/b] The Dolphins have done nothing but won their first two games on the road and we are still getting value with them, but after this win on Sunday we will no longer get value on the Dolphins. The media really does not talk about them, because QB Ryan Tannehill has not put up numbers like Wilson, RGII or Luck so we have been cashing Dolphins tickets under the radar since last season. For on this Dolphins defense is good. They were #1 in the red zone last year allowing 42% TD conversions 38% when they were home and they are back at it this year spending their first overall pick on a pass rusher. This defense was also ranked 4th in third down defense and looks to be even better this year. The Falcons obviously are banged up right now on offense with Stephen Jackson out and their two star receivers questionable. I expect both White and Jones to play, but this offensive line has struggled on the road in recent years. I think Miami can keep this Falcons team between 17-24 points much like the Saints did. Meanwhile the Dolphins offense is vastly improved with Lamar Miller showing a little life last week, but more importantly Ryan Tannehill had 319 yards and is very quietly becoming one of the better QB's in the league. We also saw Mike Wallace show why the Dolphins spent so much money as he put up 9 receptions and 115 yards against the Browns secondary that has been very good in recent years. They also have a tough match up in FB/TE Charles Clay who caught 5 passes for 109 yards last week. The Dolphins are third right now in red zone TD% showing balance and the Falcons has surrendered 350 passing yards in both of their games this year. Expect another big win by this Dolphins group and some actual hype to follow from the media.
09-19-13	Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles	Top	26-16	Win	100	8 h 49 m	Show
Chiefs +3.5 -115 4.5* NFL POD The Eagles have not proven anything yet and it looks more and more like this offense can be good against the bad defenses but what will they do against good defenses like the Chiefs? The Chiefs shutout the Jaguars and the Cowboys (a prolific offense) had a tough time moving the ball on them. Andy Reid should also be fully motivated in this game against his ex team and he knows more about most of these players than Chip Kelly. The Chiefs offense really has not been explosive yet but they are starting to find their way and getting to face the Eagles defense that has struggled already (we saw it vs. the Chargers and in the 2nd half against the Redskins) should allow for some points to be scored. I'll gladly take the more experienced coach and better defense in this spot even if they are on the road. The Eagles offense when it scores scores to fast and it really hurts their defense. When the offense fails and we have seen some of the defenses catch up throughout a game well then the defense is also put in the same position. Alex Smith has done nothing but when as a starting QB in recent seasons and he'll continue to play with a chip on his shoulders and avoid the turnovers while Michael Vick will turn it over a few times tonight.
09-15-13	Denver Broncos v. NY Giants +4.5	Top	41-23	Loss	-110	1 h 22 m	Show
[b]Giants +4.5 4.4* play[/b] I see tremendous value on the Giants here based on what happened last week. Both teams played with the National spot light and came up with different results. Broncos dazzled with Peyton Manning tossing 7 TD's and scoring 49 points while the Giants embarrassed themselves with 6 turnovers. The Giants still only lost by 5 points being -5 in the turnover department. There is definitely a market over reaction in this spot so I'll take the extra points with the Gmen. If you watched the Broncos game the Ravens had a 17-14 lead in the third quarter and Ravens head coach did not challenge a clear drop which resulted in a first down and later a TD that changed the entire game. I was not overly impressed by the Broncos the seemed ordinary on both sides of the ball and their offensive line is really shaky and could be in for a long day against the Giants front. Meanwhile the Giants offensive line looked sharp and Eli Manning was able to move the ball against the Cowboys. The Broncos did not resign their best defensive linemen and Von Miller is out on suspension so Eli should get a lot of time and the secondary of the Broncos is not very good either. I'll take the points here with the Giants and hope they have corrected their turnover issues.
09-15-13	New Orleans Saints v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5	Top	16-14	Win	100	17 h 16 m	Show
5.5** NFL POD Guaranteed 9% ROI on NFL POD's in Career TB Bucs +3.5 -115 5.5* NFL POD The Saints come off a game that was their big division game to open the year, almost a must win and now they have a let down on the road against the Bucs. The Saints have not played well on the road and it was an emotional win in week 1 with Sean Payton returning. The Bucs were #1 against the run and they have obviously upgraded their secondary. I don't think Tampa played as bad as it seemed against the Jets in the loss they just got unlucky and this team should be hungry to rebound. Meanwhile the Saints were 29th in sack % and they were lucky to play the Falcons who have arguably the worst offensive line in the game. They also were last in QB rating in road games allowing 109 QB rating and were last in rushing ypc against and allowed 6.3 ypc last week. Look for Doug Martin to have a big game and I also think Vincent Jackson should be able to have a big game especially since Josh Freeman should have plenty of time as the Saints are without two defensive tackles and are also banged up at linebacker and in the secondary. The Saints are a much fade on the road but they get a big number on the road because the public will gladly back them after the Bucs lost to the Jets last week and looked bad doing so.. I see the Bucs rebounding here in a big home win.
09-09-13	Houston Texans v. San Diego Chargers +5.5	Top	31-28	Win	100	5 h 11 m	Show
Chargers +4.5 5.5* NFL POD The biggest public play of the week is on the Texans on Monday night football game 2 which will include tons of parlays and teasers etc. Vegas has the public right where they want them, but I'm not falling for it even though backing the Chargers will take a lot of convincing. I think the Chargers did fix a lot of their issues including drafting an offensive linement in the first round and signing 3 more as free agents to help protect Phillip Rivers. This will be the first step and on national tv I think the Chargers will be up to make a statement in the last game of week 1. I'm not saying they will win and they may lose in blow out fashion, but I just can't see laying the road chalk with a Texans team that everyone is picking to get to the AFC Championship game. The Texans have been a team that really does not blow other teams out in the past and although they were a good road team last year their wins on the road were not by much. Chargers weakness on defense comes in the secondary, but they have a strong pass rush and front 7 that can stop the rush ranking 5th a year ago. Chargers have plenty of talent at WR despite injuries as they still have a healthy Antonio Gates, Vincent Brown, Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal and newly drafted Cal star Keenan Allen. Phillip Rivers is a firey competitor that has been stuck in a stale Norv Turner run offense for years. I think the off season changes have lit the fire again and he would love nothing better than to upset the Texans as a heavy home dog. I really like the coaching changes on the Chargers side with Mike McCoy as the head man and the hiring of Ken Whisenhunt. These guys have been scheming and coming up with a game plan for months against the Texans. The Texans have not shined on Monday night and I believe they struggle again here as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
09-08-13	Seattle Seahawks v. Carolina Panthers +3.5	Top	12-7	Loss	-100	14 h 22 m	Show
[b]Panthers +3 5.5* NFL POD[/b] All the hype has been on the Seahawks this entire off season and many are picking them to actually win the Super Bowl, but Cam Newton and the Panthers have been listening and I think they come up with a big win here today. The Panthers closed 2012 with 4 consecutive wins and were -1 favorites in last years match up. I don't see any drastic changes that would move this line 4 points other then the fact that the public loves the Seahawks and so do the media. People forget the Seahawks are more of a home team. They went 3-5 on the road last year and their wins were by 6 and 4 and of course the blow out of a disinterested Bills team. I expect Cam Newton to have a huge game as he really needs to step up this year.
02-03-13	Baltimore Ravens +4 v. San Francisco 49ers	Top	34-31	Win	100	23 h 59 m	Show
Ravens +4 5.5* NFL POD; U48 3.3* Bonus Honestly this game to me comes down to a coin flip. You can read my blog articles to get my feeling on all the break downs and match ups if you need more betting confidence. I see tremendous value on getting more than a FG in this game where the battles seem to be very even to me. A few things do stick out especially what Baltimore has had to do to get to this point and who they beat to get here, but overall I think the Ravens will be in position to win this game. They have a more experienced QB in Joe Flacco who does not get rattled by anything and wants to prove he's an elite QB so he can get paid in the off season. There is potentially millions riding on this game for Flacco and the Ravens should be able to put together a gameplan on defense to stop this hype surrounding Colin Kaepernick. If I am wrong I'll tip my cap to him, but I think with two weeks to prepare the Ravens will be ready. Some interesting advantages for Baltimore are special teams and red zone efficiency. First ofa ll nobody missed more FG's than David Akers this year. They were 31st in FG %, and he's only 50% over the last three games. Meanwhile Baltimore is 100% in the post season and 5th overall with a 91.43%. Both teams are similar in third down conversion offense and defense and have played similar teams, but the real difference comes in the red zone. Not only are the Ravens finally healthy but they are dominating opponents in the red zone and good ones at that. They've held the last three opponents to 40% TDs in the red zone and two of those teams were ranked 3rd and 6th overall. Baltimore is 2nd overall and with the 49ers not having many options at WR and Baltimores ability to not allow TD's to TE (2 all year) I love their chances of continuing this success. The 49ers on the other hand well they were ranked 27th in the regular season and allowed 72% conversions in the red zone on the road. They've had issues stopping opposing TE's in the zone and the Ravens have a good one in Pitta and some could even say Anquan Boldin is like a TE. Offensively Baltimore has converted 80% of their red zone chances but they will also stretch the field with Torrey Smith. San Francisco was ranked just 15th in red zone offense. Kaepernick is going to have to make plays in the red zone and he doesn't even have a full season under his belt. There is a lot he has not seen in the NFL and I'm sure Baltimore will have a few tricks up their sleeves.
01-20-13	San Francisco 49ers v. Atlanta Falcons +5	Top	28-24	Win	100	22 h 53 m	Show
*Falcons +4 5.5 NFL POD; Falcons +185 3* play; U49.5 2.2* play** So it seems hard to find anyone to be on the Falcons, but I am once against this week. Everyone thinks what the 49ers did to the Packers is going to happen again. I think the public is over reacting to one game here. For one the 49ers unleashed their pistol package running out of it 45% of the time in that game while they ran just 7 times in the last two games of the season. The Falcons should be able to put a game plan together that can defend against it. After all Colin Kaepernick is not that experienced playing in this type of environment. I look for the Falcons to bring their safeties up and also blitz the 49ers quite a bit trying to force Kaepernick into mistakes. The 49ers have struggled at times on the road and particularly in domes where they were just 1-2 this year. There are many reasons for that and one of them is their pass protections still is not very good ranked 28th on the season in sack% allowed while the Falcons are ranked 7th and Matt Ryan was not sacked a single time against the Seahawks who have a pretty good pass rush in their own right. I think the banged Smith's on the DL will finally catch up to this team on the road this week. Much of the public was on the Packers last week and now many are running to bet on them given how the Falcons almost gave up their big lead to Russell Wilson. Matt Ryan and the Falcons do face a stiff task against the 49ers, but the 49ers are facing the best group of receivers they have all year long and you can not forget about the TE. Tony Gonzalez is still getting it done and there were only 6 teams that gave up more TD's to TE's this year than the 49ers. That should be a huge key here as the 49ers just were not very good in the red zone on the road. In fact they were dead last allowing 79% TD's in the red zone. The Falcons on the other hand were ranked 5th on the season allowing 46.81% TD's in the red zone and the 49ers offense only scoring 48% TD's in the red zone on the road. That's another reason why I like the under in this game despite the total going over 15-4-1 in the last 10 years in championship games. But I think this total is quite high considering the Falcons have only allowed 1 team to score more than 30 points all year long. The 49ers usually came back with a dud after scoring more than 30 points or more this season including a combined 29 points after BUF/NO/NE. I'm not suggesting that will happen again here, but playing on the road in a dome in a loud environment is no easy task for a first year QB. Don't expect to see what we saw last week as I can see the Falcons holding on for a win.
01-13-13	Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons -3	Top	28-30	Loss	-100	37 h 30 m	Show
Falcons -2.5 5.5** NFL POD Originally I liked the Seahawks, but upon further research this is just a bad bad match up for them. First of all it's not easy traveling all the way back west and then coming all the way back to play a game where your body feels like it's 10AM. Then you have to play a team that has to be hungrier than ever led by Matt Ryan who has not won a playoff game but is due for a big one. The Falcons have handled good running teams all year despite being among the worst to stop it from a ypc aspect. They went 5-1 against teams ranked in the top 10 in rushing ypc. That's because they get out to early leads forcing opponents to pass the ball. The Seahawks have passed the ball significantly more on the road as it is and they fell behind quick to the Redskins and were probably lucky that RG III was not 100%. I see the Seahawks coming out a little flat in this game and it doesn't help that they have not faced many elite QB's this year. They only faced three in my mind in New England, Green Bay and Detroit. They got lucky in both New England and Green Bay in home games and then lost to a bad Detroit team in a dome on the road. Their defense also only went up against 2 teams in the top 9 in sack %. Matty Ryan is 7th only sacked 4.35% of his drop backs and they have more weapons than all of the 3 previously mentioned teams on the outside. Speaking of domes. Russell Wilson has not fared well this year. He's been great at home and even really good on the road over his last three games, but he played two road games in domes this year and in those games he lost both and threw 4 interceptions to just 2 TD's. If the Falcons can get up early they can ride their crowd in this one and I really think they will come out firing on all cylinders early to control this game and finally get a win. This team was different this year getting big wins when I thought they wouldn't and I'm very confident being on the Falcons side in this game.
01-12-13	Baltimore Ravens +10 v. Denver Broncos	Top	38-35	Win	100	5 h 7 m	Show
Ravens +10 -125 5** NFL POD Ravens +330 0.5* play Call me crazy, but I even think the Ravens could win this game. They are healthy for the first time all season on defense and we saw that last week when they kept the Colts out of the end zone. Peyton Manning is 9-0 in his last 9 vs. the Ravens and he'll have his fun today, but historically he has not played well in his first game after a bye week. First of all I think the bye week is over rated unless you have a ton of injuries. Why? Well it's not like you get to prepare for one team for 2 weeks. You don't know who your opponent is and for a team like Denver that was red hot on a big winning streak of 11 to close out the season this is the last thing I would think they wanted. Since 1990 teams with 8+ game winning streaks to close a season and had a bye are just 3-16 ATS when they are laying more than 3 points in that first game. Manning also has not been his usual elite self and this time he won't have the benefit of playing in a dome. In his career he has had 4 byes and those teams averaged 27 points. In that first playoff game Manning's offense only averaged 19.5 points more than a TD difference from his season average. So you tell me did the bye really allow Manning an advantage over the competition? Next Denver backers are claiming how elite their run defense is. They are #2 in run defense efficiency allowing just 3.6 ypc, but they faced just 3 teams in the top 10 and 2 of those 3 games were against the Chiefs who obviously were coming from behind throwing it more. If Baltimore can get up early in this game and continue to lean on the run Denver could have big problems. Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice are as good as any combo in this league averaging 4.9 ypc in their last 3 games and Caldwell seems to remember how to run the ball rushing it around 56% of the time over their last three games. If Denver gets a 2 TD lead then we can forget about it. The last thing the Ravens want is to let Joe Fluco, yes I said Fluco throwing the ball with their offensive line protecting him against the #2 sack % team in the league in Denver.
01-06-13	Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Washington Redskins	Top	24-14	Win	105	5 h 44 m	Show
4.5** pod
01-05-13	Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 v. Houston Texans	Top	13-19	Loss	-110	4 h 57 m	Show
Bengals +4.5
12-30-12	Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions +3	Top	26-24	Win	100	2 h 59 m	Show
Lions +3 -105 5.25* NFL POD/ Lions +145 2* play; The Lions are desperate for some sort of positive energy to close out the season and beating the Bears and knocking them out of the playoffs would be just that thing. Honestly the Bears don't deserve to be road favorites at this point. They have lost 5 of 7 games and even though the Lions have been unable to beat this team and have lost 7 straight themselves they are a team that can beat any team in the NFL. The last match up they dominated against the Bears sacking Cutler 5 times and holding him to 150 yards passing. The difference was Cutler made no mistakes and the Lions turned the ball over 4 times. In the end the game was still there for the Lions despite their poor play as they lost 13-7. That all happened in Chicago and now this game being in Detroit with Matt Forte banged up. I just see the Lions being able to get over the hump with something to look forward to next year.
12-23-12	NY Giants -114 v. Baltimore Ravens	Top	14-33	Loss	-114	5 h 29 m	Show
Giants -120 5.5* NFL POD Giants are getting back some key players this week in Ahmad Bradshaw, Prince Amukmara and Kenny Phillips which should help them get a must win game here today in Baltimore. Baltimore continues to struggle on both sides of the ball and have already backed into the playoffs. I expect the Giants to be able to win this game and it starts up front where the Ravens have not been the same old Ravens ranking 19th in sack %. Eli Manning and the Giants are #1 as Manning is only sacked 3.17% of his drop backs. That will be huge for Manning today if he can keep up that pace and that should allow him to move the ball all day long as he hooks up with his talented receiving corps. The Giants should be able to continue to convert third downs where they are ranked 11th on the year, but have converted 50% over their last 3. The Giants did actually move the ball against the Falcons but the TO's uncharacteristically hurt them. Baltimore meanwhile is 23rd in the league in converting third downs and have a 28% mark over their last 3. Giants need this game and they have more talent in my opinion because the Ravens are just banged up all over the place. This is typical Giant fashion needing 2 wins to get into the playoffs and I think they will get them. They are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games and the line is just low enough to still take them in this spot.
12-22-12	Atlanta Falcons v. Detroit Lions +4.5	Top	31-18	Loss	-110	10 h 56 m	Show
Lions +4 5.5* NFL POD The Falcons just came off a huge win over the Giants, the defending Super Bowl Champions so naturally this line will be inflated just a tad. The fact that the Lions came off a bad loss to the Cardinals makes this a huge play for me. Teams that have beat the SB champs are just 18-30 ATS the following week and over the last 10 years teams with 11 wins as road favorites are 9-29 ATS. I expect the Lions to play with a chip on their shoulder and being home on the holidays is a huge advantage in this spot.
12-16-12	NY Giants +1.5 v. Atlanta Falcons	Top	0-34	Loss	-110	2 h 2 m	Show
GIANTS +1 5.5* NFL PLAY OF THE DAY
12-13-12	Cincinnati Bengals v. Philadelphia Eagles +5	Top	34-13	Loss	-105	8 h 54 m	Show
Eagles +4.5 4.4* NFL POD The Eagles seem like they are on the right track after two games starting Nick Foles. Andy Reid did a great job taking away any kind of controversy by naming Foles the starter for the rest of the year which bodes well for Foles confidence. The biggest thing in this match up to me is Foles ability to move in the pocket and make accurate passes with the Bengals pass rush coming at him. Bengals are #1 in sack %, but Foles proved last year he can do that. Despite getting sacked 6 times he looked poised and got better as the game went on. The Eagles defense also showed up and held Josh Freeman to 178 yards and 14-34. The Bengals I feel are quite over rated and the public likes them because of the big names like AJ Green and they continue to be backed, but I can not trust this team on the road. They really have not beaten anyone and they are very bad on third downs on both sides of the ball which is a key stat especially for winning on the road. They are 20th in third down defense and 25th in third down offense. Bengals really struggle on the back end despite having the #1 sack % team as they are 15th in QB rating and they have struggled against bad teams on the road against the run allowing 4.5 ypc. The Eagles have proven of late that they can win with the run and the passing game and I expect them to be right in this game.
12-10-12	Houston Texans +6 v. New England Patriots	Top	14-42	Loss	-110	3 h 57 m	Show
Texans +6 4.4* NFL POD The line has moved like crazy today, but I think there is tremendous value still on the Texans and I will thank the line movements. These two teams are even and both teams have not played the most challenging schedules. I've seen both teams face my team the NY Jets and neither one looked more impressive. The Patriots have gotten very lucky in many games because they are scoring points off turnovers. The Texans just don't turn the ball over and in fact are #3 in turnover margin. I think the Texans will play their best game of the season tonight and they certainly have the ingredients to upset the Patriots. What are those ingredients? Pass rush, and a balanced offensive attack. Let me attack the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots are extremely vulnerable against the pass. They're ranked 23rd in sack % and 29th vs. the pass. However, teams that can run the ball like the Texans can have had the most success scoring points because the Patriots have trouble stopping them in the red zone. The Bills scored 31, 28 and have a great running game, the Seahawks scored 24, and the Ravens scored 31. Texans arguably have the best offense that the Patriots have faced all year long. The Broncos were really not clicking just yet when they visited the Pats in week 5. Next, the pass rush. It's not ironic that the Patriots have struggled vs. teams ranked in the top 10 in pass rush, Arizona, Miami, Seattle, and even Denver. It's also no coincidence that New England is 22nd in pass play %. I really don't think this team trusts its pass protection and they've done so well running the ball they are smart enough to know they don't need to air it out 40+ times a game. Well the Texans are good at stopping the run and are ranked 5th in sack % led by J.J. Watt who could single handily ruin Tom Brady's night. Texans are also #1 in third down defense (ironically Arizona and Miami are in the top 5). New England won by just 7 at Miami ( a team that lacks an offense like the Texans) and lost at home to Arizona (a team which we have seen is the worst in the league). The Patriots are 29th in third down defense and worse at home. Red Zone is another key aspect in this game. Who can bend and not break and who can punch it in? Well it's obvious both teams can punch it in they are both averaging 69% TD's in the red zone over their last 3 games and are both in the top 5. Houston however has been far more dominant on the defensive end, 4th overall and they only allow 36% in the red zone while the Patriots are 23rd and allow 68% at home. I really look for this game to be close throughout and I give the Texans despite some injuries to have a real shot at winning the game. Brady will struggle at times especially without Gronkowski still.
12-09-12	New Orleans Saints +5 v. NY Giants	Top	27-52	Loss	-110	5 h 33 m	Show
Saints +5 5.5* NFL POD; Saints +195 1* bonus Not only are the Saints still alive, but they are drawing motivation from the Giants playoff run a year ago. This Saints team absolutely believes they are still alive in the playoff hunt and they've had 4 extra days to prepare for this game. It's just a tough spot for the Giants here today who are starting to trend downward. Drew Brees in his last 3 games vs. the Giants 60% pass completions 864 yards 9 TD and 0 INT's. The Saints have played well vs. the Giants and I don't see any signs of that changing because the Giants have not shown they can be a dominant defense or team in home games. They have played worse at home on defense than on the road. They're 27th in run defense overall allowing 4.6 ypc but at home they allow 5.0 yards per carry. For the Saints that's a great sign because they have relied on their deep stable of running backs far more than in years past. Brees on the other hand will go up against a Giants defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at home allowing a 96.4 and 106 in their last 3 games combined. The Saints should have their way with the Giants in the red zone specifically because they can run and pass efficiently. The Saints have the #1 red zone offense at 70% TD's, the Giants are 22nd in the red zone 48.98% in the red zone. The Saints defense is also tough in the red zone and that's how they have escaped for wins in the past. That mentality will help them cover this odd spread as I don't see them losing by more than 4 if they lose at all. Either way Brees will bounce back from a couple of bad games to lead this team. The extra couple days allowed them to find things they can exploit against the Giants. Saints are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss while the Giants are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
12-06-12	Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +11	Top	26-13	Loss	-120	3 h 49 m	Show
Raiders +10.5 4.4* NFL POD These teams know each other well since they play 2 times a year, and being double digit favorites on the road is just too much for even the Broncos who will be traveling on a short week. The Raiders have been tough in games at home this season or at least their offense has been more capable and getting McFadden back this week will definitely help make them more balanced against the Broncos. The Broncos on the other hand have the Ravens next week which is a more crucial game to their season success despite this being a division game. Broncos beat the Ravens next week and they could be on their way to a bye in the playoffs. Now Peyton Manning led teams are not usually victims of looking ahead, but the Raiders want to prove that they are not as bad as their record indicates. I also don't think the Broncos are as good as this line. They've played a lot of bad teams lately and have been covering the spread 6 out of their last 9 games becoming a big public backed team. Meanwhile the Raiders are a team that have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5, but remain a capable team to beat anyone at home. I think we are getting tons of value in this spot.
12-03-12	NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +3	Top	16-17	Win	100	6 h 25 m	Show
4.4** top play
12-02-12	Cincinnati Bengals v. San Diego Chargers +2.5	Top	20-13	Loss	-110	27 h 30 m	Show
Chargers +2 5.5* NFL POD I get it the Bengals are surging right now winners of 3 straight and the Chargers are losers of 6 of 7, so it's no wonder that they are home dogs on Sunday to the Bengals, but this is a desperate Chargers team right now. The Bengals really have not played well in San Diego. It's a long trip and they have lost 5 of 6 since 1992. This is clearly their most challenging road game on the season as their road schedule has been pretty easy. On the other side the Chargers have had a brutal schedule with no easy wins. They already played the Broncos twice, Baltimore, New Orleans, Atlanta, and on the road against an under rated Tampa team. I think they finally get a game in their own building with against a team playing with too much confidence. Andy Dalton has tossed 9 TD and 0 INT's in his last three games, but a closer look at those games and he faced some bad defenses. I'm not just talking about against the pass which was 32nd, 30th, and 13th, but also against the run meaning Benjarvis Green-Ellis has helped with balanced as they have faced run defenses ranked 24th, 28th, and 22nd. Now on the road against the Chargers will be a different challenge. Although the Chargers are ranked 22nd against the pass they have faced some really good QB's already, and their run defense is ranked 6th against the run. That means the Chargers can at least take one aspect of the Bengals offense away making them one dimensional. The Bengals rushing offense is not that good to begin with so I look for the Chargers to really concentrate on stopping the pass. On the other side of the ball Phillip Rivers and the Chargers have been solid at times, but the biggest issue has been the turnovers. Well the Bengals defense is 29th in takeaways on the road and have allowed a 117 QB rating over the last three games alone. They also struggle against the run allowing 4.9 ypc in their last 3 and 4.6 ypc on the road this year. They're ranked 23rd against the run and that's good news for the Chargers who should have success and balance offensively. Chargers will have more success on third downs where they are ranked 13th overall and convert 41.7% at home while the Bengals are 27th and are only converting 28.5% on the road. When they face defense that can shut down their run they find it very difficult to convert because they go into a lot of 3rd and longs.
11-25-12	Green Bay Packers v. NY Giants -2.5	Top	10-38	Win	100	8 h 49 m	Show
Giants -2.5 4.4* NFL POD The Giants are desperate for a positive vibe and now they face the Packers at home off a bye. The media, and the general public are now all down on the Giants who just a few weeks ago everyone was saying was a lock to return to the Super Bowl when they defeated the 49ers on the road. This team constantly plays to the competition. They seem to always come up with their big games against the really good teams in the league. The Giants also with extra time to prepare are 6-0 in their last 6 games off a bye week which includes two Super Bowl victories. The Packers offensive line is still among one of the worst and I think this is the game we see the return of the Giants dominant pass rush. The Packers are a one dimensional team that should have issues on the road on Sunday night protecting their QB. Packers are 29th and allow Rodgers to get sacked 10.88% of the time on the road while the Giants are 2nd only sacked 3.43% of the time.
11-22-12	Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys -3	Top	38-31	Loss	-120	21 h 54 m	Show
Cowboys -3 5.5* NFL POD This game could be ugly as two of the most penalized teams will meet in Dallas on Turkey day. I'm loving the Cowboys in this spot as they are 13-0 in November at home under Tony Romo and Romo gets a favorable match up. I think we get a lot of value based on how the Cowboys struggled last week, but that was against Cleveland's passing defense. The Browns despite being ranked in the bottom of the league were the leagues best last year and have started to click in defending the pass allowing just 183 over their last 3. That was problamtic for the Cowboys because they have been unable to run the ball. I was not shocked to see their offense sputter, but it's no indication of how they have been playing because now they face a Redskins team that is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Redskins have been good in key running situations, but still have allowed 4.6 ypc on the road, but even more of a key is their inability to stop the pass. They're ranked 29th in yards allow, and 28th in sack % which means they can't afford to blitz and won't get to Romo like the Browns did. Redskins defense has allowed 32, 31, 22, 27 and 27 in road games this year and Dallas is fully capable in the passing game that just seems to get better and better by the week to put up those type of numbers too and if they do this game will be over because the Redskins rely more on the run and are not built to come back. RG III has been great and all, but their huge win last week is no indication of how good or bad they are. The Eagles have quit on their coach and the Redskins came off a bye. Now they travel on short rest to face the Cowboys at home on Turkey day. Dallas too has been one of the best run defenses at home good for 2nd allowing just 3.4 ypc. Ever since Jay Ratliff has come back they have been hard to run on. This will set up some longer third downs and that is where the Redskins seem to struggle big time as they are 30th only converting 30% of them while the Cowboys are 11th. Dallas defense on third down is also great ranking 5th allowing just 33% at home while the Redskins are ranked 29th. This translates over to the red zone where the Redskins are 20th and the Cowboys are 11th, but the Cowboys are only allowing 36% conversions in the red zone at home. Bottom line people love to bet the hot hand and whoever they are talking about in the media and that has led to bets coming in on RG III, but I think Romo and the Cowboys can take off here if they get a win here. It's a crucial game and the Cowboys just seem to have the matchups especially with S Brandon Meriweather lost for the season on the Redskins side. This Cowboys team could easily be 8-2 right now, but a few bad breaks and coaching decisions. Last week they finally pulled off a game they would have lost in the past and I think that confidence will carry them to an easy victory on Thanksgiving as their defense takes control.
11-19-12	Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers -3.5	Top	7-32	Win	100	3 h 3 m	Show
49ers -3.5 4.4* NFL POD Both teams will be starting their back up QB's here and even though the Bears Jason Campbell has more experience I"m giving the 49ers who are just far less reliant on their QB a huge edge. The 49ers have never asked Alex Smith to win games and now that he's out they actually get a new wrinkle with Colin Kaepernick in there who can be explosive in the running game. That's the key right there the running game and the 49ers are far more dominant at running the ball than the Bears. 49ers are ranked 1st overall and average over 6 yards per carry at home. The Bears are ranked 29th on the road in ypc allowed and they have faced rushing offenses on the road ranked 25th, 32nd, 31st, and 5th. I'm very sketpikal on their gap integrity and ability to stop this rushing attack tonight. They are ranked 18th overall and are allowing 4.8 ypc on the road. The Bears have relied too much on forcing turnovers and when they face teams that do not give the ball away they lose. 49ers are 5th in the league with fewest turnovers. The Bears have played two other teams like that and lost both to the Texans (at home), and Packers (on the road). 49ers also can stop the run much better than the Bears can ranked 3rd in the league and their defense has been tested by several top 10 teams especially at home already. San Fran has actually improved their red zone TD% this year ranked 7th, while Chicago has done a poor job ranked 44th and scoring just 36% TD's on the road. The ability of Campbell will only reduce that especially given how great the 49ers run defense has been.
11-18-12	Cincinnati Bengals v. Kansas City Chiefs +4	Top	28-6	Loss	-105	2 h 8 m	Show
Chiefs +3.5 5.5* NFL POD I really love the Chiefs here and I think we are getting a ton of value here in a home dog. The Bengals did beat the Giants last week who have been playing poorly of late, but beating the defending Super Bowl Champions will get you tons of credit and the public is pouring in on the Bengals this week as road dogs. How could you back the Bengals on the road right now? Their defense has been terrible against the pass and the run. This will be the first game for the Chiefs since facing the Saints that they should be able to find balance as the Bengals are 31st in completion % defense and 27th in yards per carry defense and even worse when they are on the road. If you take away the records and you purely look at the stats the Chiefs could easily be the better team. They have plenty of weapons, the better defense and they are at home. They have Brandon Flowers at CB who is playing at a high level and should be able to take AJ Green out of the game or at least slow him down to give his team a chance to win. The Bengals lack balance on offense too and it's a clear reason why they are 29th converting third downs with just 31% rate and 28% on the road. The Chiefs are 12th, and their 3rd down defense is ranked 9th and allow just 28% at home. Chiefs main issues this year have been turnovers and scoring TD's as they are last in RZ TD%, but facing the Bengals should help as they are 26th in red zone defense while the Chiefs are 12th and allowing just 26% TD's in the red zone over their last 3 games. I expect the Chiefs to hold the Bengals to field goals on possessions in the red zone. You can definitely see the Bengals struggling in this spot.
11-12-12	Kansas City Chiefs v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 40	Top	13-16	Loss	-110	3 h 57 m	Show
Steelers/Chiefs Over 40 4.4* NFL POD; 2.2* bonus Chiefs +18.5/ Over 34 I believe this game goes over, the Steelers defense though ranked #1 in the league is not as good as advertised. They are 22nd in TD% in the red zone and 26th in third down defense. The Chiefs will be able to score and put up yards by converting on third downs where they are ranked 5th. The Chiefs just have to avoid the turnovers and they will be in this game. I know that is a big If the way they have played this year, but the Steelers are not the defense they were in the past in forcing turnovers. They are 23rd in sack % and they are also 30th getting just 1 turnover per game. The Chiefs are dead last in turnovers, but now they face a team they can actually avoid turnovers and I think they'll get the running game going early with Jamal Charles. Defensively I think the Chiefs are in trouble particularly against the run. The Steelers are as healthy as they have ever been with all of their running backs looking to be ready for this game. Each player will be fighting for yards because the guy that produces is going to get the playing time. The Chiefs are also allowing 5.3 yards per carry on the road and the Steelers should set up convertible third downs where they are the best in the league. I do think the Steelers after getting a big victory last week could have a bit of a let down and a look ahead as they get the Ravens next week, but I think the defense is the team that will falter as the offense has averaged 28pts per game the week before facing the Ravens in the last 7 seasons under Big Ben.
11-11-12	Tennessee Titans +6.5 v. Miami Dolphins	Top	37-3	Win	100	15 h 29 m	Show
Titans +6.5 5.5* NFL POD Miami has not been a good home team for a while now going just 22-51-1 ATS in their last 74 and now they are favorites by nearly a TD their biggest number in almost three years? I don't think the Titans are nearly as bad as they showed last week against the Bears which was a complete disaster and their owner Bud Adams lashed out at his team all week and I think the Titans players and coaching staff will be playing with some desperation on Sunday. Dolphins are also coming off a tough loss, but they have a short week and a division opponent up next Thursday that they'll be looking ahead to. If you take out last weeks result the Titans are a very similar team to the Dolphins. The Titans have the better offense while the Dolphins have the better defense, but the Dolphins pass defense has just been awful. With Jake Locker coming back and providing a spark to the team I think it will be a big day for the Titans offense who have talented receivers that can beat the Dolphins with regularity on Sunday. On the flip side there is this idea that Miami can run the ball well they are ranked 28th in ypc with just 3.7 ypc on the season and 3.2 in their last three while the Titans should find more balance with Chris Johnson who is starting to pick things up of late.
11-08-12	Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +4	Top	27-10	Loss	-100	3 h 15 m	Show
Jaguars +3.5 4.4* NFL POD I love the Jaguars in this spot with all the hype continuing to grow with Andrew Luck and the Colts. The Jaguars have played terribly and deserve to be home dogs the rest of the way, but I think they'll want to prove something here tonight and I think they will have some success doing so against the Colts defense that has not played well on the road. I know Andrew Luck is going to be a star in this league, but right now there is just too much hype. He has not played well on the road in three games where he's been sacked 9 times and has thrown just 2 TD's and 6 interceptions. He's also not completing 60% of his passes and not even close on the season which is a clear indicator that he just does not have the weapons around him to be an efficient QB that will be able to win on the road. This defense just is not any good and I see the Jaguars playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder and finally coming away with their first win at home.
11-05-12	Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. New Orleans Saints	Top	13-28	Loss	-115	3 h 19 m	Show
Eagles +3 4.4* NFL POD Neither team is very exciting to back right now, but how can you back a favorite that is doing something that's historic right now in the Saints and their defense. The Saints have allowed 400+ yards in 7 straight games and they have played some pretty bad offenses (Chiefs). The Saints are last in the league in yards per play 6.7 ypp and will go up against an Eagles offense that has struggled this year, but has the ability to put up over 500 yards of offense with the players they will put on the field. They also have the potential and the play makers to give Drew Brees trouble. The defense is the bigger key as the Eagles have not played nearly as bad as the media has portrayed. This defense is 3rd in third down conversions they are 3rd in red zone defense TD% allowed 37.5%, and 1st in pass completion % defense. Drew Brees and the Saints don't have the ingredients to beat the Eagles unless they force turnovers because I think this offense is going to finally click whether it's Michael Vick breaking the blitzes for dynamic plays or Lesean McCoy against the leagues worst run defense that's allowing over 5 ypc. Either way the Eagles offense is dangerous on turf and they need a win here. If they lose this game I see many changes coming. All the Eagles need is 238 yards against the Saints and the Saints will have allowed more yard through 8 games than any other defense in NFL history. The Saints defense is not forcing turnovers either so look for the Eagles to take what they give them as there will be a lot to take.
11-04-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Oakland Raiders -1	Top	42-32	Loss	-110	6 h 42 m	Show
Raiders -1 5.5* NFL POD We were on the Bucs to beat the Vikings at +210 last Thursday and now the public is in love with Josh Freeman again. However, this is a tough game and I see a bit of a hang over for a young team. For one this team is flying across the country to play this game against a Raiders team that is starting to click. Carson Palmer should be able to have a huge game against the Bucs secondary that has been decimated by injuries and trades. Their secondary was not good to begin with so this really puts them in a tough situation. The Bucs run defense won't help them in this game because the Raiders are very much used to being stopped when they try to run the ball and it has resulted in a lot of passes and good chemistry between Palmer and his receivers. On the flip side don't sleep on Oakland's front 7 ability to stop the run as they are only allowing 2.1 ypc and are 10th overall when you combine home and away stats. TB showed some real weaknesses against the run allowing 6.7 ypc, so don't think that Oakland will completely abandon the run. Look for McFadden to build off his first 100 yard rushing day. I also like the Raiders ability to hold the Bucs up on third downs as they are holding opponents 33% conversions on third downs while the Bucs are only converting 31% of their third downs and Oakland and Carson Palmer have done a decent job at home and are only getting better converting 41% of their third downs and those are key stats in a game that is supposed to be very close.
10-29-12	San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +7.5	Top	24-3	Loss	-115	7 h 39 m	Show
Cardinals +7.5 -115 5* NFL POD; Cardinals +14/Under 45 6.5point teaser 2.5* Two top 10 defenses face off today and John Skelton is back for a second start in a row for the Cardinals who look to break out of their funk. There is no better time to do it than Monday night and I think they have a chance to do it. I think we are getting a ton of value here with the Cardinals at more than a TD. Cardinals won last year 21-19 against the 49ers at home and they can sure do it again. They are 3rd in thid down defense while the 49ers are 8th, both teams are in the bottom of the league in converting third downs 21st for the 49ers and 25th for the Cardinals. Bot teams also struggle in the red zone to score TD's rather than FG's, but I think the Cardinals have a better chance on Monday night considering they have an elite RZ WR in Fitzgerald. The 49ers have also given up 100% TD's in the red zone in their road games this year and are overall ranked 17th. A closer look at the 49ers and you see a team that has continued to digress on defense and offense. I think they are still living off what they did last year and earlier this year to bad teams. The Cardinals should be able to run the ball a little bit after Lerod Stephens-Howling ran for more than 100 yards last week against the Vikings on the road in which they were +147 total yards. So the idea that this team can't move the ball is a bit over hyped as well. Also the 49ers in their last 3 games are allowing 4.4 ypc and they allowed 4.7 ypc against Seattle at home. Don't be shocked to see Arizona at home move the ball better than San Fran.
10-28-12	NY Giants -1 v. Dallas Cowboys	Top	29-24	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
Giants -1 5.5* NFL POD I love the Giants in this spot, now only are they 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 road games, but they are 3-0 in Dallas since their new stadium opened up. The Giants are fully motivated and a better overall coached team and after losing the match up to the Cowboys to open the season this game because crucial to their season and I think they'll win it. Cowboys lost their leader on defense and best tackler in Sean Lee so that's going to have a major impact going forward, but more than anything the Cowboys have to contain with a healthy offense from the Giants and a healthy defense. Hakeem Nicks will be back for this one and the depth that NY has at the WR position may be the best in the league. In the first match up Tony Romo took advantage of the Giants injuries in the secondary and Kevin Ogletree had a huge game, well that's not happening today. The Giants also should be better against the run, while the Cowboys should be without Demarco Murray and Felix Jones is also banged up. Statistically the Cowboys defense has been great, but they haven't exactly gone up against the best offenses. Look for Romo to make plenty of mistakes in this game and for the Giants offense to click when it has to.
10-25-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 43.5	Top	36-17	Loss	-110	3 h 16 m	Show
MIN/TB U43.5 4.4* NFL POD; TB +210 1, TB +11.5/U49.5 2.2 PLAY I love our odds with these three plays tonight. The Vikings defense have played very well this season and now their pass rush is starting to click as they had 7 sacks last game. The Bucs are a bit better protecting the QB, but they should still be under a little pressure as the Vikings can get a pass rush with 3 and 4 guys. Freeman has not shown he can beat coverage teams with 7 or 8 guys going back in coverage. I think TB can win this game, but I don't think it will be because they put up a ton of points. On the other side the Bucs are so under rated. This team is the #1 in run defense allowing just 2.8 ypc on the road and 3.1 overall. The Vikings strength is running the ball as Ponder has struggled of late and lets be honest he really only has one weapon in Percy Harvin. The Vikings won't be able to fully take advantage of the Bucs most glaring weakness which is defending the pass. This run defense is the real deal led by McCoy as they have faced 4 top 10 rushing offenses. TB had a terrible defensive performance in their last game giving up 35 points to Drew Brees but that was to be expected. Any time this defense has given up points they bounce back with a solid defensive effort: 10, 16, 10 and I expect them to do the same here tonight. The Vikings have benefited by an easy schedule and some of the key stats just don't translate well for them here today. First they go up against a defense that's ranked in the top of the league in red zone defense and 3rd down defense as the Bucs are ranked 4th allowing just 36% TD's on red zone opportunities and they've faced 3 top 10 red zone offenses while their third down defense has allowed just 35% conversions and 34% on the road good for 8th best. Vikings on the other hand are 24th in third down defense and have allowed 44% conversions at home. In the red zone they have been worse allowing 47% ranked 12th. They should be able to contain Tampa however as they are only allowing 41% TD's at home. Tampa is 7th in TD%'s on offense and they've faced just as many good red zone defenses as the Vikings. I like Tampa's chances to come up with a shocking win as I think many are over hyping the Vikings who have a one dimensional offense that throws to Harvin and Rudolph in the red zone look for safety Baron to take away Rudolph who hasn't been playing as well as we see a lot of field goals tonight.
10-22-12	Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears UNDER 47	Top	7-13	Win	100	4 h 50 m	Show
Lions/Bears U47 4.4* NFL POD; Bears -0.5/Under 53 3* teaser I love this play tonight despite the Lions ability in the passing game which is one reason why I think we have a high total here. Guess what in Stafford's two games in Chicago he's averaged 5.2 and 5.5 yards per pass. That's a slow moving offense and the Bears have a group of sure tacklers. The Lions also don't pass nearly as much on the road as they do at home and even if they pass a ton I'm not concerned with this going over. Stafford threw 63 times a few years ago and still only managed 13 points. Chicago's offense on the other hand should have its own issues in the red zone and overall. First of all they are not great at protecting their QB ranked 27th in sack %, Detroit just came off an excellent game from their defensive line last week with 10 tackles for loss and 3 sacks vs. the Eagles. The Lions will have to stop the run here because the Bears run the ball 49% at home and overall they are 27th in passing %. They go up against a Lions defense that is #1 in red zone defense and the Bears are already struggling in the red zone ranking 23rd. The Bears defense is also in the top 10 in red zone defense and 3rd in third down defense and they only allow 21% conversions at home. Now the Lions are more of a threat but they are still one dimensional and are only converting 33.85% of their third downs themselves. Both offenses also have continued to be hurt by the penalties. I expect the under in this game as both QB's have not played very well this year and going up against a familiar opponent the same should continue as these teams know each other extremely well. I expect a lot of slow moving drives and a lot of field goals, but in the end Lovie Smith is 8-2 on MNF and they are 5-3 following a bye. Look for them to continue that trend with a win in a low scoring game.
10-21-12	Green Bay Packers v. St. Louis Rams +6	Top	30-20	Loss	-105	2 h 8 m	Show
Rams +6 5.5* POD, odds at SIA, Bovada and others I found these odds all over the place, but I"m comfortable if you get it at +5 as well. All of a sudden GB gets a win on the road against a good team and they are back? I still think the Packers have a ton of issues and they are one of the more arrogant bunch of players who go on the road to play in St. Louis, a very difficult place to play. GB is all banged up in their front 7 and they will have their hands full with the Rams running game that just ran all over the then #1 run defense in Miami. In fact they put up 462 yards vs. one of the top defenses and they did it on the road. They went on to lose that game so much of that story is hidden by their 2-5 field goals that cost them the game. I'm fine with that as the perception of most is, "same old Rams." Many are jumping on the Packers and I'm not buying it. The Rams have one of the best coaching staffs in the league and GB is a one dimensional offense that will have issues going up against the Rams, because the Rams are one of the best pass defenses in the league. It starts up fornt where they are 7th in sack %, and get to the QB 10.34% of drop backs. That does not bode well for Aaron Rodgers who is not having as good of a year. Rodgers has been sacked 12.2% of the time he drops back on the road and now without Cedric Benson he's thin at RB. I just think the Rams offense is improving and going up against GB's 27th ranked RZ defense where they have struggled will only help them in this game. I think the Rams have a lot of confidence now and could win this game outright because of their strengths. Look for Janoris Jenkins and Cortland Finnegan to make some impact plays when Rodgers throws the ball.
10-21-12	Cleveland Browns +2 v. Indianapolis Colts	Top	13-17	Loss	-105	2 h 52 m	Show
Browns +2 4.4* play The Browns are so under rated and we had them in a huge win last week. This game is interesting as it's a repeat of the Fiesta Bowl in Brandon Weeden vs. Andrew Luck. Weeden just has more talent and balance behind him on both sides of the ball and the strengths really match up well for him in this game. First of all the Browns easily could be 3-0 on the road with chances to win all three games vs. the Ravens, Giants and Bengals and that's saying a lot since all three were in the playoffs last year. The Colts were exposed a bit last week in New York allowing 252 rushing yards to an offense that hadn't been able to run the ball all year. The Browns should have success doing both passing and running and I'll tell you why. Trent Richardson and Montario Hardesty are as good as any tandem in the league, yep I said it. and now they finally get to go up against a run defense that's just not very good in the Colts ranked 29th. This will be a good game for them as they won't have to throw the ball on every play. Both of these teams are 28th and 29th in fewest run play % which says something about their faith in the QB. At the end of the day Weeden will be able to find some open receivers because they will have a working running game and the Colts edge pressure won't be a factor against the Browns who are in the top 10 in protecting their QB. Browns have Joe Thomas and Michael Schwartz protecting the dge who are as good as any. Look for the Browns to be able to also score TD's and not field goals as the Colts are 32nd in red zone defense allowing 73.68% TD's while the Browns are 15th 50%.
10-18-12	Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -7	Top	6-13	Loss	100	12 h 42 m	Show
49ers -7 4.4* NFL POD; 49ERS -1/U44 2.2* Teaser Once again I think the public
10-14-12	Dallas Cowboys +4 v. Baltimore Ravens	Top	29-31	Win	100	40 h 38 m	Show
Cowboys +4 -115 5.5* NFL POD I really like the Cowboys coming off the bye as they have had a chance to get healthy along the defensive line with Ratliff and Coleman returning who will make a huge running especially against the run. They were off a bye last year in a similar situation heading to NE as a TD under dog and they led late 16-13 before falling 16-20. Baltimore is not the Patriots and they have not been particularly dominant thus far. In Baltimores last two games they have shown weaknesses against the run and against the pass. They gave up 214 yards rushing to the Chiefs who don't hide the fact that they are going to run the ball and they gave up 320 yards passing to a rookie QB without any elite receivers. Cowboys have plenty of receivers and when given time Romo is capable of finding them. Austin and Dez Bryant are arguably as good of a tandem in the league and it's no coincidence that Dallas has lost their two games against top 10 sack %. Well not to worry because this is not the same Ravens pass rush or overall defense. They are 24th in sack % and if Jason Garrett is a decent offensive mind he will stop throwing the ball 68% of the time and get a balanced attack. I think the time off will help with that strategy. On third down the Cowboys have been better believe it or not ranking 12th on defense and 18th on offense which is better than the Ravens 16th and 24th rankings. In the end this will be a hard fought game resulting in the Cowboys having a shot to win or leading late.
10-11-12	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +7	Top	23-26	Win	100	4 h 50 m	Show
Titans +6.5 (4.4* NFL POD) I think there is tons of value here on the Titans. The public perception on both teams is slightly off and I think we are getting good value on the Titans at home as nearly a TD under dog. First of all the Steelers are ranked 22nd in total defense and 19th in total offense and have faced the 3rd easiest schedule this year while the Titans defense has struggled big time, but looking at the teams they
10-07-12	Cleveland Browns +9 v. NY Giants	Top	27-41	Loss	-113	2 h 49 m	Show
Browns +8.5 5.5* NFL POD With some of Eli's big receivers ruled out in Nix and Barden and Cleveland being one of the best at defending TE's in the league (ranked 3rd). I see Eli and the Giants deferring to the running game slowing this game down quite a bit. I'm not so sure they can do it successfully. Despite being able to run on Carolina they have struggled at home running the ball which is clearly not their strength. The Giants really don't have a home field advantage and this is the exact game they seem to always struggle in. Giants are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Since opening Metlife Stadium they are 0-6 ATS against teams where they are home favorites of more than a TD. Recent ones come to mind, Buccaneers this year, Seahawks, Dolphins last year. I know the Browns are 0-4 but They have an extra couple of days to prepare and they should be able to run the ball on the Giants defense that is 26th allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Cleveland is also 12th in sack % allowed which should allow Brandon Weeden more time than most QB's against the Giants front 4 and that could be dangerous because the Giants secondary is still beat up. We saw Breeden throw for 320 yards against the Ravens defense as he had time, but really most importantly is Trent Richardson who is starting to look like the most complete running back in the game. I'll go with Cleveland's overall defense and their offensive line. The Giants will be just going through the motions as they have the 49ers on deck where Cleveland will go for a win to shock the NFL.
10-01-12	Chicago Bears v. Dallas Cowboys -3	Top	34-18	Loss	-110	3 h 56 m	Show
Cowboys -2.5 buy 1/2 -120 4.5* NFL POD This game is a match up between two teams that have struggled offensively and really are very similar. Both have been playing well on defense and have had issues protecting their own QB and avoiding mistakes. However, it's going to come down to which offensive line can protect their QB better and playing at home offers a major advantage. When a team is on the road we see the difference constantly and in this game the offensive line is going to play the biggest factor and I think being home will greatly benefit Tony Romo who in my opinion is better at avoiding the pass rush any how. Also, Cutler this year has the worst sack % 10.58% and that's even worse on the road 20.59% of his drop backs while Romo is at 6.09% and Dallas was actually really good at avoiding sacks at home a year ago ranked 5th. Look out for DeMarcus Ware to feast on LT JMarcus Webb of the Bears and Cutler should be running for his life most of the night as he just does not have the pocket presence that Romo has. Chicago would have to run the ball and do it well to have a chance, but I don't see them having that ability on the road. I strongly believe this line is off a bit and in reality should be -4 or 4.5. Dallas struggled at home against Tampa, but they should have lost that game and the fact that they won it despite 3 turnovers and 13 penalties has to tell you something about the overall talent of this team. Chicago meanwhile has benefited largely to being home for two games and is a different team on the road. The Bears have been the #1 team in third down defense this year, but the Cowboys are right behind them only allowing 29.27% conversions and Dallas has had greater success converting them actually converting 10% more 3rd downs than Chicago That should play a key factor in a tight game. Overall I like the additions to the Cowboys secondary and if you haven't seen it in action yet stay tuned for tonight's game because it's a lot better than it was a year ago.
09-30-12	Miami Dolphins +6 v. Arizona Cardinals	Top	21-24	Win	100	5 h 24 m	Show
Dolphins +4.5 4.4* As good as the Cardinals have been on defense they are still getting too much respect. They actually are negative yards in every game and that has to say something. Meanwhile the Dolphins are much better than their record indicates. They are 3rd in the league in run defense allowing 66 yards per game. Arizona has struggled punching the ball in at the goal line with the run and their offensive line has struggled and should have their hands full with the Dolphins front 4 including Cameron Wake who should spend plenty of time in the backfield today. I also don't trust Arizona's starting running back Ryan Williams. He's fumble prone since college and has had issues this year. Look for the turnover battle to play a huge factor in this game. Meanwhile the Dolphins offense has been pretty decent considering they start a rookie QB. Ryan Tannehill is athletic and he's running the same offense he did in college so in a sense he's much further ahead than most rookie QB's. He's also backed by a good rushing team. Both teams like to run the ball more than pass as they are both inside the top 10 in rush %, but the Dolphins are far better at running the ball and stopping the run. Arizona is 30th with just 2.8 ypc, and their defense is 12th allowing 3.9 ypc and should have their hands full with the Dolphins backs today.
09-30-12	Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Atlanta Falcons	Top	28-30	Win	100	13 h 19 m	Show
Panthers +7.5 -115 5.5* NFL POD The Panthers really struggled big time in their last game on Thursday night against the Giants, but they get an extra couple of games to prepare for a huge divisional game against the Falcons who are on fire. I actually think this game will be close. Remember last year the Panthers were tied in the 14th quarter at 17 with the Falcons and their are a lot of things that align for the Panthers to give the Falcons a little scare here today. For on the Falcons defense is getting too much respect. For one they are 24th allowing 128.7 ypg on the ground and 31st allowing 5.0 yards per carry and it seems obvious that Carolina curtails their offensive scheme to the weakness of the defense they are facing rather than their strength (which is running the ball). That's why I like Carolina today because they will be doing what they do best. It helps big time that they will be getting their Tackle back in Bell and Johnathan Stewart giving them a third weapon for attacking the Falcons weakness. Carolina has only one game where they have rushed it over 20 times ironically that was their only win against New Orleans. Look for them to get back to that against the Falcons and that should allow them to keep it out of Matt Ryan's hands. Lastly The Falcons are 31st in allowing opponents to convert on third down allowing 51.28 % conversions. Carolina isn't much better at 46%, but once again this is too many points for a divisional game especially when the Falcons still have a lot of question marks as they are also 30th in red zone TD%. When Cam Newton gets down there he should be able to score TD's. At the end of the day I think the Falcons may be getting a little cocky and the Panthers just got humbled which I think is what needed to happen to Newton. I expect them to bounce back especially with the extra preparation.
09-24-12	Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks +3.5	Top	12-14	Win	100	8 h 52 m	Show
Seahawks +3.5 4.4* NFL POD We all know about the 12th man and the degree of difficulty of playing in Seattle. I wanted to take the Seahawks a week ago hosting the Cowboys and we saw first hand how dominating the Seahawks can be especially on the defense side of the ball where they will are the #1 run defense in terms of yards allowed and have only been allowing 2.6 yards per carry. Aaron Rodgers needs a balanced attack on the road or he will struggle as we have seen at times this year. Seattle has some talented secondary players and a strong front 7 that will create pressure. Right now the Packers can no protect Rodgers as they are 28th in sack % as Rodgers is getting sacked 9.41 % of his drop backs. That's extremely high considering how great he is in the pocket. That stat does not complete the full picture of how bad the offensive line has been. Seattle on the other hand is being under rated here again. They have a very very good run game ranked 6th and should have their way with a Packers defense that's ranked 31st allowing 5.1 ypc and 140 yards per game thus far this year. I expect Seattle to run it and for Rusell Wilson complete an efficient game. Suddenly their 16-20 loss looks a lot better at Arizona after how dominating the Cardinals have looked thus far. Overall they've played two top 5 defenses and now they are about to face a team whose defense is not top 10. Packers have the extra rest here but they were 0-2 ATS last year in their road games with extra rest following a Thursday game the week before.
09-23-12	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Oakland Raiders +4.5	Top	31-34	Win	100	28 h 4 m	Show
[b]Raiders +4 5.5* NFL POD[/b] Pittsburgh is not the same old team, yes they are old, but they are not elite any more. Oakland has been a disapointment thus far but I like their chances against a Steeler defense that is banged up. The Jets moved the ball well on this unit in their first 2 drives then they struggled the rest of the game, but I think Oakland being at home will have more success behind the right arm of Carson Palmer who is playing extremely well considering he doesn't have a tight end or elite receivers. However, Oakland at home is going to be a tough team to beat and unlike their first game Palmer will have Moore in there which will open up this offense quite a bit. The Steelers offense is in flux as well. They can't protect Big Ben and they can't run the ball just 2.6 ypc this year. Big Ben has been sacked 8 times and it could be more. The problem is bringing him down and the Raiders actually have a defensive line that's big enough to do it. They have more strength than speed and that will help them in this one. on the other side Palmer was not sacked last week against the Dolphins and that should allow him to be in good situations on third down if he continues that which he should. It will help that the Steelers are 22nd in third down defense. I expect a big game for Oakland iand it's offense to make a nice come back here.
09-20-12	NY Giants v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 50	Top	36-7	Win	100	4 h 50 m	Show
NYG/CAR U50 4.4* NFL POD I like the under in tonight's game as both teams should take a run first approach. Starting with the Giants they are really banged up without Hixon or Nicks and without David Diehl. Even without Ahmad Bradshaw we should see a heavy dose of Brown/Wilson in the running game because Eli is smart enough to know without Hixon and Nicks and with Carolina likely double teaming Cruz that he will have to get the running game going against a vulnerable run defense. Unfortunately for the Giants they haven't been good enough to run the ball and I think Carolina will shut it down creating a low scoring game as they have the linebackers to do it and the Giants lack the skill up front to block even though Carolina is allowing nearly 150 yards on the ground this year. On the flip side you would assume Cam Newton and Carolina would like to open it up offensively and they did in week 1 with poor results. Look for more ground in pound from Cam and the rest of the bunch as he likely does not want to take three step drops and get hit by the ferocious pass rush of the Giants. The best chance for the Panters is to get their running option attack working. Both teams have struggled to convert on third downs while the defenses have been pretty good on third downs. The Giants and the Panthers are only converting 36% of their third downs which tends to lead towards unders in this situation. More than anything both teams are banged up a bit and are playing on extremely short weeks early in the season. The offenses do not have much time to put in any crazy game plans so expect a vanilla approach and for both defenses to be well prepared.
09-17-12	Denver Broncos +3 v. Atlanta Falcons	Top	21-27	Loss	-107	4 h 38 m	Show
Broncos +3.5 -115 (5* NFL POD) I love the Broncos here and suggest buying a half point if it's affordable otherwise I see the Broncos winning this game themselves. First off it's pretty obvious the way this game should go and it will come down to who can stop the opposing QB. It's going to be like a chess match, but after Manning put up 31 points on a very good Steelers defense I can't help but back him in this game. First of all the loss of Brent Grimes has a huge impact in a game like this for the Falcons whose nickel scheme is completely screwed up. Look for Manning to take advantage on what was a strength for the Falcons before the season. Secondly Denver should be able to get to Matt Ryan. It's not like offensive line is spectacular and the Broncos have one of the best pass rushes with Von Miller and now they are getting pressure from the tackle position in rookie Derek Wolfe who had 1 of the Broncos 5 sacks on Big Ben a week ago. Ryan will take sacks while Manning will not tonight. I also trust a Jack Del Rio led defense over Mike Nolan any day. For one Mike Nolan is 1-7 in his career as a head coach or defensive coordinator vs. Peyton Manning and teams these days are going up against the defenders just as much as the coordinators. Not only on game day but in the week of preparation leading up to it all. Manning is one of the best at preparing and when I ask myself who has the better no huddle offense? and Who is the better team at getting or pressuring the QB the answer is the Broncos for both. That's enough incentive to make this a heavy play on the Broncos. Also don't forget the Falcons have struggled to win the big game and for as well as they have played at home they get too much credit from oddsmakers as they are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Don't fall into the trap here tonight Matt Ryan will be pressured and Manning will stay clean and come up with a flawless effort against a Falcons defense that does not do much for me.
09-16-12	Washington Redskins v. St Louis Rams +3.5	Top	28-31	Win	100	4 h 19 m	Show
[b]Rams +3.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b] I love the Rams with a healthy Sam Bradford this is a different team. We seem to be getting tons of value in this spot with all the public loving RG III after his performance and win in New Orleans. Don't forget how much of a mess that New Orleans team was and if you take out the big plays the Redskins were not that great as the Saints even held them in check on third downs. The Rams have one of the better pass defenses because they get to the QB and I think that should result in some more turnovers as they forced Mathew Stafford into a few of them a week ago. Despite the lack of offense in week 1 look for Bradford and co to open it up a little more now that they are back at home.. Bradford did complete 68% of his passes in week 1 and Washington was 17th in 3rd down defense on the road. I think the Rams should win this game.
09-13-12	Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers -4.5	Top	10-23	Win	100	3 h 50 m	Show
Packers -4 buy 1/2 -120 5** NFL POD There is a huge misconception here that the Bears offense is going to be elite now just because of Brandon Marshall. Lets slow down they played the Colts at home last week and now they go on the road into a challenging environment against one of the best teams coming off a loss and hungry for a win. The Bears offense on the road last year only eclipsed 21 points twice in 8 road games last year. They will have to do that against the Packers to cover this spread and I don't see dramatic improvement for them to do it despite putting up 41 points at home.. Don't forget Cutlers first 5 drop backs against the Colts resulted in 3 sacks, interception, and an incomplete pass. Of course then things got easy, but against the Packers on the road he's going to have an even tougher time. The Packers actually have better offensive numbers and they played a much better defense in the 49ers. Packers were able to get by last year and go 15-1 with the worst defense in the league, but dont' forget their first 6 picks were on defense. This group will improve throughout the season and they didn't play terribly against the 49ers holding them to 22% conversions on third down. I mention that because the Bears only converted 33% against the Colts and were ranked 27th on third down last year. I don't see where this team got so much better that that's going to change dramatically. On the flip side the Packers were 3rd last year 48.5% on third down and Aaron Rodgers was effective again vs. the leagues best defense converting 46% on third down. I think playing a contending team in the Bears allowed the Packers to be better prepared this week. As that game went on Rodgers became more and more comfortable. Look for Jermichael Finley to have a huge game as he caught 4 of Rodgers 8 TD passes against the Bears a year ago. I'm not fooled by last week so be confident laying the points tonight.
09-10-12	San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders -107	Top	22-14	Loss	-107	4 h 18 m	Show
Raiders pk 4.4* NFL POD; 3TEAM 10PT TEASER - Raiders +10, Ravens +3, OAK/SD O37 2.2* First of all the oddsmakers are always really sharp on the lines on Mondays which is why you'll see me lay a bunch of teasers out there much like I did last year. I like the Ravens in the spot at home and the over in the OAK/SD game to go along with our POD on the Raiders. I love the Raiders here this is a team that's still in a much better spot than the Chargers are. The Chargers could not score a TD on the road in the preseason and Phillip Rivers did not look any better than his 20 interceptions last year as he had 1 TD and 4 interceptions this pre season. Pre season means nothing but you would have like to have seen something more from Rivers. Oakland meanwhile is coming off a 7-4 season before dropping 4 of 5 to finish the season including their week 17 home game against the Chargers that cost them the division. The Raiders had won 3 straight over the Chargers before that game and I think they'll win this game. Mainly because Carson Palmer is now familiar with his receivers and the offense and Darren McFadden looks like he's 100%. At least the Raiders have a balanced offense. The Chargers are going to have to pass a lot in this game which could mean big issues and turnovers considering they'll likely be without LT Jared Gaither and two of their other starting OL's are banged up, but probable. Ryan Mathews is also doubtful and their RB depth is suspect. I think the Chargers will put up points because of the passing but it will lead to the Raiders tiring out the Chargers defense. The Chargers were last in the league in 3rd down defense a year ago and 20th vs. the run. Look for Darren McFadden to have a huge game as the Raiders are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. the AFC West.
09-09-12	Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3	Top	10-16	Win	100	5 h 29 m	Show
Tampa Bucs +3 -120 5.5* POD buy the point... But I do not think you'll need it. All this hype on Cam Newton and now he's a sophomore and he's been around the league once. Ask Josh Freeman how his sophomore campaign went? Either way everyone is in love with this kid for good reason, but he's getting too much credit because the Panthers have far more issues than the Bucs who look to rebound after losing 10 games in a row to close out the year last year. Their run defense will be improved with rookie LB Lavonte David and strong safety Mark Baron, but don't underestimate Greg Schiano's pedigree for the defense side of the ball as I believe they will improve big time against the run and this is the game they'll showcase that today. It's not like Carolina's defense is any better as they were 26th in RZ TD%, and 26th in 3rd down defense. While the Bucs weren't much better they added some talent on this side of the ball and the offense will be better making the defense better. On offense the Bucs made big changes bringing in G Carl Nicks to help pass protect they drafted Doug Martin who can be a star in this league and adds another dimension to the offense that Lagarette Blount just didn't. Don't forget Vincent Jackson and Dallas Clark giving Josh Freeman the tools and no excuses but to bounce back. Freeman had 25 TD and 6 interceptions in his first year and it was obvious last year he thought the NFL was just that easy, but a 16/22interception campaign motivated him this off season and I think we will see more of the old Josh Freeman who is just as good if not better than Cam Newton. Newton may not have a sophomore slump like he did last year but the NFL is about to get more difficult for him. I don't see him having as much as success and I see the Bucs being better today.
09-05-12	Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants OVER 45	Top	24-17	Loss	-112	4 h 55 m	Show
NYG/DAL Over 45 4.4* NFL POD; Cowboys +10/Over39 2.2* teaser I lean towards the Cowboys in this game for one reason, a balanced attack and an improved secondary with Carr/Claiborne. However, it's the over I'm thinking will be more likely with both QB's due to throw the ball 30+ times. In both games last year the two QB's eclipsed 70+ throws combined. That's mainly due to their inabilities to run and that should be true for tonight as well. For the Giants David Wilson is a nice upgrade, but the Cowboys were able to hold a lot of opponents under 4 yards per carry last year as they were 7th vs. the run. I see Eli opening things up and throwing the ball 40+ times like he did so often late last year. Watch out for his new TE, and ex Cowboy Bennett to have a big game. Cowboys offense is a little sketchier with the inability to protect Romo, but they still scored 34 points against the Giants when they were home. They should have a better protection scheme in place to avoid being sacked 6 times and Tony Romo is still one of the better QB's in terms of avoiding sacks and moving in the pocket and finding open receivers. Romo has more of a balanced running game and they proved they can run the ball against the Giants with a healthy Demarco Murray they should be able to protect Romo much more than they did in the last meeting. If he does not have Jason Witten it won't be a huge loss he had just 3 receptions in the Cowboys 34-37 loss anyway. Romo will get Miles Austin and Dez Bryant involved early in a depleted Giants secondary while the running game keeps the Giants ferocious defensive line honest.
02-05-12	NY Giants v. New England Patriots -2.5	Top	21-17	Loss	-115	141 h 60 m	Show
Patriots -2.5 -115 (6* NFL POD); Over 55 (3.3* play) Originally wanted to back the Giants like I have done through the entire playoffs, but I can't help the thought of revenge and after re-watching the match up between these two teams earlier in the week I fell even more in love with a play on the Patriots. The public backing the Giants to me is another reason you should be on the Patriots. Let's first get to the total in this game. We both know both defenses are not in the top half of the league and lets be honest they both got lucky in the Championship game to be where they are today. You could say the Giants have the better defense, but the Patriots do have the better offense. One thing is for sure they won't start the first half of the Super Bowl like they did in the first match up in New England. For one this game will be in a controlled environment in Lucas Oil Stadium in a dome. Secondly both teams left points off the board int hat match up especially the Patriots who left at least 10 points and as much as 21 in the first half while the Giants left off 6-14 and 3-7 in the second half. Add in the fact that the Giants really tuned their play calling down without the service of three offensive starters (Baas, Nicks and Bradshaw) and we should see more points from them for sure. Oh by the way the over is 22-8 in the Patriots last 32 as favorites and 26-10-1 in their last 37 on turf. It was also penalties and poor decisions by Tom Brady that led to the Patriots issues and the Giants as well with Eli throwing off his back foot in hopes of getting a TD on 3rd and goal after a delay of game brought them back 5 yards that was picked off. These are the types of things I can't see happening in the Super Bowl from two experienced teams, two experienced QB's and two experienced coaches. The penalties will be cleaned up. Both teams were in the top 15 in the league in fewest penalties per game with the Patriots being better just 5 per game ranked 4th while the Giants were ranked 14th. The Patriots over their last 3 games committed just 2.3 penalties while the Giants over 6 including 9 in their last game, so advantage Patriots and that's one of the many reasons I'll be backing the Patriots. One other reason is revenge. No I'm not talking about the Super Bowl. These are two different teams than 4 years ago. It's very difficult to beat any team twice in the same season. Never mind the Patriots who since 2002 when Brady took over are 29-9 facing teams on revenge. Brady is a competitive guy like no other and if you watched his performance in the AFC Championship game and the game against the Giants you know he's studying hard to seal his legacy. That's not to say the Giants are not studying equally as hard, but the Patriots have a lot more to improve on from the first game that could easily change the game. First of all -2 in turnover margin as Brady forced a couple of passes and was forced to try to make some bigger plays later in the game because of the poor field position he had all day. 7 of his first 8 possessions started inside the 20 it wasn't until the Patriots forced 2 turnovers themselves that they had good field position. The Giants were blessed with great field position and it wasn't anything they did exceptionally well. So I do not expect this to happen again which should give the Patriots the edge in this game and the edge for the over. Very early in the first match up you saw a lot of quick throws from Brady and it was obvious they were afraid of the pass rush for the Giants. Well expect to see the same thing, but I also think they throw in a few no huddles like we have seen from them from time to time this season. These quick passes can quickly turn into big plays in a dome and it's not like the Giants can creep up to stop them. On several occasions Wes Welker made huge plays when Brady had time to step up in the pocket on post routes to Welker and Gronkowski and Hernandez. I expect Hernandez and Welker to have huge games and don't even be surprised to see Ocho Cinco get some kind of action. He was targeted 5 times in the first match up. At the end of the day though it's Brady and this game will be very entertaining if you can't find the game at -2.5 buy the half point. This game could be really tight although this is just the 12th time in 46 years we have had a spread of 3 points or less and the average margin of victory in the previous 11 was 15.5. I expect these two evenly matched teams to battle.
01-22-12	NY Giants +3 v. San Francisco 49ers	Top	20-17	Win	100	141 h 56 m	Show
Giants +3 -120 (6NFL POD); Giants +128 (2.5 bonus) Love the Giants in this spot especially the fact that they have revenge. They have just been a completely different team since they beat the Jets and their defensive line is as healthy as it's been all season. The way their defense is playing right now it's just as good as the 49ers considering what they did on the road last week against Aaron Rodgers. A lot of it had to do with turnovers and drop passes but the Giants did everything they had to in order to win easily and that is really what they did. Meanwhile the 49ers who I also had as a POD surprised a lot of people and won with Alex Smith driving the field. Don't expect that to happen again this week I see the 49ers going back to their old ways of run first trying to beat the Giants at their alleged weakness but that run defense was stout down the stretch. Manning in the first match up was -1 in the TO margin as he threw 2 interceptions.. Once again I think he redeems himself he's having that kind of year. Manning and the Giants really had that game won last time in San Fran they dominated the time of possession by 10 minutes held the 49ers to 305 yards as they were +90. They could not get the ball in the end zone just 1 for 4 in the red zone. But right now this team is just a different team they are clicking on both ends at the right time. They are converting 50% of their third downs over their last 3 games and were 7-14 in the first match up while the 49ers were 3-11 in the first match up and are just 28.89% over their last 3 games and are 31st on the season in 3rd down offense. What's surprising is their defense is not as good at home giving up 39% red zone conversions to 30% ont he road and the Giants defense is allowing just 35.83% conversions on the road. This is a team that just wins on the road under Tom Coughlin. We know all about the 49ers struggles in the red zone and they are under 40% TD rate in the red zone now they've done better of late, but now once again against the Giants I think they'll be conservative. The way they win is run and don't turn the ball over they were #1 in the league in TO margin and were +4 vs. the Saints. Giants were +3 vs. the Packers. So it'll be interesting to see who wins the TO battle. The 49ers will have to be +2 or better to win this game in my opinion and the Giants are 5th in the league in TO margin so I don't see it happening. Giants are now 35-17 ATS in their last 52 road games and it'll continue with another trip to the Super Bowl on Sunday night.
01-15-12	NY Giants +8 v. Green Bay Packers	Top	37-20	Win	100	76 h 20 m	Show
Giants +8 I said last week this team was nothing like the 2007 team that won the Super Bowl, but now I
01-14-12	New Orleans Saints v. San Francisco 49ers +4	Top	32-36	Win	100	66 h 49 m	Show
49ers +4 (5.5* NFL POD) 49ers +175 (2* play) The 49ers are about to be tested, but there is a lot about their play at home that I like other than the fact they allow just 10.9 points per game. They are probably the leagues best all around defense, but they'll have their hands full with the Saints who broke an NFL record in 3rd down conversions at 57.08% on the season and over their last 3 have converted 70% of their 3rd down attempts. Guess what all 3 of those games were at home and now they are going on the road where they scored roughly 2 TD's less. The Saints have also played 12 of their 17 games in a dome this year. When they were not in a dome they averaged 25.8 ppg a significant decrease to their dome and carpet stats. The 49ers are very similar but a lot better than some of the teams the Saints have struggled with on the road including The Titans and Jaguars which I will get to in a second. The 49ers are just so much better than those two teams they have extra time to prepare and that's something that will only benefit this team. This season they had two games one with 10 days and another with 14 days. They won by a combined score of 46-10. The other time they had 8 days as they played a Monday after a Sunday and came up with a 20-3 domination of the Steelers. The 49ers are also the #4 red zone defense allowing just 41.18% TD's, and are #1 in allowed attempts with 2.1. The only opponents in the top 10 in % were the Falcons and Titans who allowed 22 and 26 points when the Saints visited them. Again 49ers are better in this area. San Fran is also #1 in TO margin while New Orleans is 19th. I think it's going to be the 49ers game to lose and they won't make the costly turnover to do so meanwhile the Saints have faced very bad defenses on the road from a pass defense perspective. The 49ers are in the middle of the pack in yardage but that's because nobody can run on them as they are #1 rush defense in yards allowed and yards per carry. The Saints rely on their rushing offense much more than many people realize and it'll be a huge key on Saturday. The 49ers are actually 4th in QB rating allowed. The Saints have faced just two other teams on the road in the top 15 and those were the Jaguars and Titans at 14th and 15th who they managed to score just 23 and 22 points against. But neither of those team's had the pass rush that the 49ers have. Just take a look at the pass rushing teams that the Saints have faced out of domes this year. They're ranked 31st, 32nd, 29th, 25th, and 26th. Again they'll have their hands full and I like the value I'm getting with the general public backing the red hot Saints who a year ago had to go out west and got shut down by the Seahawks. This was once a team that allowed 31 points and went 8-17 on third down against the Rams in a road loss. The Rams were arguably the worst team in the league.
01-08-12	Atlanta Falcons +3 v. NY Giants	Top	2-24	Loss	-100	3 h 31 m	Show
Falcons +3.5 -115 buy 1/2 - 5.5* NFL POD I'm not sold on the Giants back to back wins vs. the Cowboys and Jets does not really impress me because neither of those teams had much balance on offense and now they face the Falcons who ironically have a lot of balance with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. The Giants pass rush and all the hype of them reminding the media of the 2007 Super Bowl team to me is so far off. For one the Giants actually had a running game in 2007. This year they are ranked dead last in rushing yards and the Falcons have a very capable run stop unit. Yes the Giants came on strong at the end of the year but remember their game against the Redskins? Yuck, I just think this team is a .500 team and not a team that can string off a bunch of wins mainly because their secondary and rushing defense are suspect and the pass rush can not hide everything especially going up against the Falcons who will go into a no huddle offense at any time. I also expect to see Turner have designed runs at Osi Umenyiora who struggles in run defense. The Giants are 23rd in the league in run defense from a ypc aspect allowing 4.5 ypc. The Falcons have been just as hot at the end of the season in fact Matt Ryan has 10 TD passes 0 Interceptions over his last 4 games. Atlanta is +7 turnover margin in their last 3 games while the Giants are +3 both teams rank in the top 10 for the season. In a game where both teams are pretty even you have to take the under dog and that would be the Falcons. I like the fact that they are 8th in RZ defense from TD's allowed and have allowed opponents to get their 15 times less this season to the Giants 46 att to 61. The Giants are 23rd allowing 55.74% TD's in the red zone this season and the Falcons have gotten inside the red zone 3 more times than the Giants and are ranked 13th when they get their in TD%. They are also better at staying on the field as the Giants are 15th, converting 37.38% while the Falcons with balance are 6th 44.39%. Take away the two Victor Cruz plays in the last two games and this Giants team is ordinary and probably sitting home for the playoffs. They're 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home favorite .5 to 3 points while the Road team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 match ups in this series.

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