Texans -3.5 (4.4* NFL POD) These two met just three weeks ago with the Texans winning on a last second TD pass by TJ Yates. Yates actually threw 49 passes in that game as they were playing from behind all game and he took 5 sacks. Surprising was the rushing game worked they had 28 carries for 5.14 ypc. Texans are one of those teams that are rush proof they can run on any team we saw it last year and we saw it this year. When healthy they can run and now they got Andre Johnson back which should open up things even more. People forget just how good this defense has been all year #2 in total yards allowed and they have been consistent 3rd against pass, and 4th against the run and 4th in scoring defense. Bengals start a rookie QB to but the Bengals have been unable to run the ball and that's the advantage they do not have vs. the Texans. Bengals just got run over by the Ravens a week ago. This team has not won a game since 1990 in the playoffs and I don't expect that to change on Saturday. TExans are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record, they'll win to go to Baltimore next week.

Vikings -1 5.5* NFL POD Bears went 2-5 on the road and since Cutler went down they have not been the same. Two QB's backing him up have 4 games with 3 interceptions. That just won't get it done and the the Vikings have been very competitive of late and they'll be motivated to win in front of their home crowd here on New Years day. Vikings just 1-6 at home this year haven't gone without at least 2 wins at home since 1967 and I think they avoid that again this year. Bears mentally have probably checked out for the holidays. Urlacher and Briggs aren't 100% and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Look for the duo at QB for the Vikings of Joe Webb and Christian Ponder to take this game over they are by far the better QB's and we remember we live in a QB league.

Falcons +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 (5.5* NFL POD) These two teams know each other so well and match up pretty evenly as they are built to beat each other. The last 4 games have been decided by 3 points or less. To me Atlanta has now really come together over their last few games and can go punch for punch with the Saints. They also have more balanced in my opinion and the more talented receivers in Julio Jones (finally healthy) and Roddy White and then they got Tony Gonzalez over the middle. Michael Turner though could be the difference he has 50 carries in his last 2 games at New Orleans and it resulted in 265 yards. The run game should be a huge factor in the red zone for Atlanta because you can't really match up one on one with White, Jones or Gonzalez I look for option runs up the gut with Turner walking into the end zone. At the end of the day both teams are playing their best football and it should be close throughout and come down to yet again a field goal. Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 in New Orleans and the dog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Bears +12 (4.4* POD); Bears +18; U48 2.2* bonus Last I checked the Bears are still playing for a playoff seed as they can get in with 2 Falcons losses and 2 wins. Now they make a switch at QB once again and it can only be for the good as Hanie threw 3 interceptions in 3 of 4 games and really cost this defense. Enter Josh McCown which should not excite anyone, but I don't think he'll turn it over at that rate giving the Bears some sort of shot here. This is a divisional opponent and I just can't see the Bears getting blown out in this spot. Especially.... Since Rodgers and the Pack just lost last week and now they are resting two tackles and Greg Jennings is still out. How many times are they going to let Aaron Rodgers stay back there and get hit by Julius Peppers if guys can't get open and they can't block? Expect more runs from the Pack than usual and the feeds right into the Bears hands as the 8th ranked run defense and they are better than that number suggests in my opinion. Either way this is a close game between two divisional opponents with the Bears having much much more to play for here. Both teams will run the ball a lot leading to a quicker game which is why I also like the under in a teaser with the Bears. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a dog 10.5 +.

Chargers +2 5.5* NFL POD Love the Chargers today they are just hot right now they are better defensively and right now on offense they are better especially when it comes to balance. They can run the ball and pass and Antonio Gates should have a nice day as the Lions seem to be a little weak in the middle of the field. Chargers have put up 38, 37, and 34 in their last 3 games and they played Jaguars and Ravens defenses in 2 of those 3 games both better equipped to stop opposing offenses than the Lions. Detroit on the other hand has literally no running game and SD is allowing less than 14 points the last 3 weeks and they own the 6th ranked pass defense. There is a reason why SD leads the league in fewest passing attempts per game against them. Teams do not want to throw on them. This game comes down to these two QB's and DET is allowing 68% per pass in their last 3 while SD 55%, Offensively both QB's are hot right now, but Rivers last 3 games is hotter 75% of his passes have been completed compared to Stafford 66%. On the season both QB's sack % per drop back is very similar at 5.63% to 5.15 % with Stafford holding the advantage but Rivers over the last 3 games just 2.33% compared to Stafford 7.44%. Chargers just have more experienced and are used to these late season must win games and the Lions are not. San Diego is 23-9-3 ATS in their last 35 as a dog 18-8-3 ATS in their last 29 as a road dog while the Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

HOU/IND U40.5 (4.4* pod); Colts+7 (2.2* bonus) Okay so it's obvious the Texans will be spending a lot of time on the ground and can they put up big scoring numbers? I don't think so as the Colts are not that bad vs. the run allowing 4.1 ypc good for 13th. Texans just lost to Carolina who were 24th allowing 4.6 ypc and they didn't lose on the road they lost at home, meanwhile the Colts got their first win and I'd say this game is important to them because they have dominated the alleged rivalry from previous years and this team is proud and should come out in front of their fans and put up a good fight. I doubt the Texans will be dropping back risking another QB injury considering the Colts can rush the passer. Plus teams have definitely caught up to Yates and even over their last 4 games they have only scored 13-20 points per game. Colts won't score much either keeping things one the ground and Houston's top 5 defense should keep this one easily under the total. I see a 17-14 17-13 type game.

49ers -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD); 49ers +3.5/U44 3.3* teaser Love the 49ers here tonight this is a huge game for them to keep the #2 seed in the NFC for home field and they go up against a Steelers team that has struggled this year when it's had to play a top 5 defense going 0-3 losing twice vs. the Ravens and once vs. the Texans. 49ers are ranked 4th in total defense and 1st in scoring defense. Big Ben will play it looks like although they should hand the ball off quite a bit in this one and that plays in the hands of the 49ers who own the leagues #1 run defense. I expect this to give the Steelers tons of issues especially since they have not played that well on the road even against mediocre teams. 49ers may be without Patrick Willis, but the Steelers are surely without James Harrisson which makes that a wash. I like the fact that the 49ers just do not turn the ball over with Alex Smith turning it over just 5 times. Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win. 49ers are 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 home games and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Monday night games. The under is 37-18 in the Steelers last 55 road games as a dog. It's obvious this game turns into a defensive affair and I'm banking on the 49ers coming up big at home.

Lions -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Lions, they simulated a 4 game playoff run last year and went on a run and I believe they duplicate that on their way to the playoffs. They control their own destiny and Oakland right now has lost their strength, the ability to run the ball is basically gone as Bush has less than 3 yards per carry over the last 3 games. Lions are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 as a favorite .5 to 3. Look for the Lions to really push the pocket on Carson Palmer who has made all kinds of mistakes since coming back to the NFL.

Bucs +7.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Cowboys are on back to back disheartening losses and I'm curious to see how they can dominate an opponent like the Bucs who have lost 7 games in a row, but the Cowboys are 2-4 on the road and even in their 2 wins they won by a FG in both and I expect a very close game the Bucs are not as bad as they have played. Statistically the main difference between these two teams is turnovers and Josh Freeman is having an awful year, but I think he bounces back when he returns home if they start handing the ball off to Blount and being more conservative this team can absolutely pull the upset and hopefully save their head coaches job. Raheem Morris is said to be on the hot seat now and I think his team plays for him tonight at home. Some stats that are just too similar to give the Cowboys a TD fav on the road. For one TB and Dallas are both averaging 19 ppg when TB is at home and Dallas is on the road. Dallas is giving up 24.7 on the road while TB is allowing 25 so it seems that both teams are scoring and allowing the same amount of yards. Also 3rd down defense, TB is not terrible in fact they are slightly better than Dallas with 39% both are ranked 17th and 18th. Run defense too Dallas is allowing 4.2 yards per carry on the season overall while TB 4.6 is worse, Dallas lost Demarco Murray who was averaging a yard better than Felix Jones this season. Red Zone offense both teams are ranked low Dallas 25th with just 46.3% TD in the red zone while TB is 27th with just 43.75%. Really don't understand the spread here as Dallas is also 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 as a road favorite and TB is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points.

Falcons/Jaguars Under 42.5 (2.2* total); Falcons -5.5/U48.5 (4.4* POD Teaser)
This game is very interesting as the Jaguars come off a season high in points and the Falcons erased a 23-7 deficit and scored 24 unanswered points as we ended up losing our Panthers bet in that game.

Rams +10.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Betting makes any game interesting and we love the fact this is an in division rival with both teams knowing each other well. The Rams have double revenge. The Rams lost at a chance at the playoffs last year because of the Seahawks so you bet they want this game. Who are the Seahawks to be laying this many points? This is just the second time the Seahawks are favored all year. The first they lost at home to the Redskins as -3. I know Bradford is questionable but judging by the line movement I'd be he plays. Either way both teams will spend most of the night on the ground running. That will shorten the game quite a bit and in those type of games I'm going with the under dog especially when it's a double digit favorite. Rams last in the league in run defense actually held Lynch in check last time holding him to 88 yards and 27 carries.

CHI/DEN U35.5 5.5* NFL POD
Well this may be one of the more boring games, but obviously important to both teams playoff chances. ON the Bears side they are without Matt Forte which takes away 40% of their offense. They already are not the same passing team without Cutler, but now without Forte they are in trouble because Forte has the vision and receiving skills that Marian Barber does not. I think the Bears struggle to score points and they'll be asking their defense to step up all day long. Bears are the best defense that Tebow has faced since the Jets who shut him down until the last drive.

Bears front 7 is just more talented than the Jets so I expect the running game of Denver to struggle. That turns things over to Tebow and the passing game and we'll see if John Fox lets Tebow go a little bit here. I don't see any more than 20 passing attempts by either team. This will be a run first effort by both and both defenses are capable of shutting the opposing offense down. The only way this goes over the total is if we have turnovers or special teams touch downs. Both teams play this conservatively considering how important the game is. The under is 45-20-2 in the Bears last 67 as a road dog and the Broncos are under 17-7 in their last 24 following a SU win.

Browns +14.5 (4.4* NFL POD) It's going to be in the 20's in Pittsburgh tonight with some winds and Cleveland already has the #1 pass defense. This means a very quick game with lots of running I can see a 17-6 or 17-7 final type. We have already seen the Steelers struggle to get past the Jaguars, Chiefs and Colts and the Browns are very familiar with the Steelers by playing in their division to me this is just too many points for an in division rival. I look for Clevelands offense to do better than they did on Sunday vs. Baltiomore because Baltimore is among the leagues best in 3rd down defense while Pitt is ranked 20th. IT's not the same dominant defense it was in prior years and the offense has suffered some major inconsistencies. It's not like the Colts, Jaguars, or the Chiefs have prolific offenses or shut down defenses.

Browns +7 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Browns here they continue to fly under the radar to most people and yet again when the line opened up as Ravens -7.5 the line quickly moved off that to 6.5 and 7 where it sits now with most of the public backing the Ravens. Ravens have had several hang overs after a big win and last Thursday's game was a big one over the 49ers. Earlier the Ravens have been hung over on the road after a big win in losses to the Jaguars and Seahawks. Neither of those two are as good as the Browns who have the leagues #1 pass defense and are #1 in red zone defense allowing just 40% TD's when opponents get inside the 20. Expect a low scoring game but for the Browns to hang around in this one giving them a shot to win outright.

Eagles-2.5 buy 1/2 -120 (4* NFL POD) Call me crazy but this team is better with Vince Young than Michael Vick. We saw it early vs. the Patriots and he's less prone to making big mistakes than Vick is. He threw for over 400 yards vs. the Patriot defense and had countless drops from his receivers. I think the Eagles are a better road team right now 3-2 on the year because playing at home is just too stressful for the "Dream Team." This is the first time I am backing them all year we have faded them a bunch, but I think the time is right despite going up to Seattle. The Seahawks have their own issues with their offense that's among the worst in the league 30th, and they are converting just 32% of their 3rd downs while the Eagles secondary should shut down Travaris Jackson who has 3 TD and 6 interceptions in his last 4 games. Philly's defense is also better on 3rd down the biggest difference right now between these two teams is the turnovers. If the Eagles don't turn the ball over they'll win this game. Even without Vick and Maclin they are far better on offense and I'd say they have much more talent on defense although Seattle stops the run a bit better. Andy Reid just is not a run first type of guy. McCoy had 10 touches a week ago vs. the Patriots. The guy is still the leading rusher though expect the Eagles to win this game on the arm of Vince Young and I feel confident saying that.

NO/NYG Over 50.5 (4.4* NFL POD) I don't see the Giants being able to slow down Drew Brees and both teams are among the best in the league in protecting their QB. Brees 19 sacks on the year but he's only been hit 35 times. Manning too only sacked 19 times and 49 hits, but the Saints have literally no pass rush ranked 23rd in the league. Giants have been struggling to run the ball as it is and without Ahmad Bradshaw they'll like go to the air early and often. Saints come off a bye and that's bad news for the Giants. The last 3 years Brees off a bye has been home in each vs. the Seahawks, Giants and Packers. The Saints have won all three of those game by a combined score of 133-75 or 69.33 points per game. Drew Brees has been flawless in thos games throwing for 1,074 yards 12 TD's and 2 interceptions. The Giants are no longer a run first team and now they're 18-7-1 on the over in their last 26 games vs. the NFC and 9-4 in their last 13 as a dog.

Rams -2 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Rams in this one as they dominated the game in Arizona a few weeks ago this is the Cardinals 3rd road game in a row on Tday weekend and they were out gained by 121 yards in the first match up while the Rams held onto the ball for 37 minutes. I twas a missed field goal, an interception and penalties and poor special teams play in OT giving up the TD to Patrick Peterson that cost the Rams that game. This is a must win for the Rams with Steve Spagnolia and his GM on the hot seat and I think they just have more balance than the Cardinals right now. Both teams can rush the passer and we saw that in the first game, but the Rams should have the advantage at home and the advantage with the guy behind center. Many think Sam Bradford has regressed but I like what I am seeing with Brandon Lloyd of late and Steven Jackson had 130 yards rushing in the first match up while Beanie Wells for the Cardinals had just 20 yards on 10 carries. Cardinals are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record.

Ravens -3 (5.5* NFL POD) I love the Ravens for the simple fact that the 49ers are not used to playing this type of game on both sides of the ball. They play physical themselves, but how often do you see them going up against opponents like this and on a short week and traveling across country? One other time when they faced the Bengals in a 13-8 win, but remember that was an even younger Andy Dalton that was not cut loose until a few games ago. Ravens on the other hand well they have faced 4 like defenses to the 49ers in the Bengals, Steelers (2x), and Jets. Guess what they went 4-0 straight up and ATS and they put up 31, 23, 34, and 35 points. The 30 point games came at home and as we all know they are a different team at home. Why do I bring up this style of football? Well the 49ers will have to take chances in this game running the ball and throwing short just won

Dolphins -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Dolphins, Matt Moore has been on fire 62.4% of his passes and so have the Dolphins and their defense which has recorded 8 sacks in their last 2 games and they are shutting down opposing teams running games too, ranked 10th in run defense. Look for Fred Jackson to struggle again on Sunday and for Fitzpatrick to also struggle throwing the ball. Bills season really did a flip once they lost Kyle Williams their NT on defense for the season. This team has reverted to last year's team that struggled stopping the run and right now the Dolphins are finding balance with Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas. Bush is off 242 yards rushing the last 3 weeks and he continues that success this week. On the otherside the Dolphins defense is playing as good as any in the league right now and Fitzpatrick has 5 interceptions in his last two games now he's without his starting Center Eric Pears who is out. Bills are just 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a dog .5 to 3pts.

NYJ/DEN U40.5 (4.4* NFL POD) This is a dangerous game for the Jets short rest traveling after an emotional loss, basically I think their defense does show up. The Jets are the best in pass defense in this league if you take out Tom Brady and they have the best corner while the Broncos really do not have any weapons at receiver and Tim Tebow is back there throwing. This should be a lot of running tonight as it is the Jets weakness, but they can crowd the box like no other with man to man on the outside. Even last week the Broncos had just 10 points through 3+ quarters vs. the Chiefs and the Jets are much better on defense. On the other side I see the Jets going back to ground and pound it's evident Rex Ryan is frustrated with the offense and although LT is out they activiated Billal Powell. The Jets had McKnight, but now with Powell they can really concentrate on the run. I expect the Jets to struggle a bit on offense as well and this game should fly by with lots of running.

Chiefs -3 (5.5* NFL POD) Last week we had the Dolphins out right against this team, but that was mainly due to the Chiefs coming off a big win on Monday Night and the Dolphins were over due to end their winless ways. The Dolphins dominated that game for 4 quarters and it was evident that the Chiefs were A. not prepared, and B. not ready physically. Chiefs coach Todd Haley even admitted that they worked on stuff a little too much following a Monday game and I think now this team will be rested and ready to go against a Broncos team that is over achieving. I love Tim Tebow, but I do believe that the option attack just will not sustain in the NFL. Now it's looked pretty good, but the tape is out on Tim Tebow. Make him throw outside the numbers and although Tebow 2-0 on the road is very impressive I see him falling to the Chiefs today. This is coming from someone who is not critical of Tebow I think he can play in this league but he has a long way to go. Force Tebow to throw outside and you win this game and the Chiefs definitely have the talent to do this. Denver is also just 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 after scoring 30 + points in previous game and they are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win.

Raiders +7.5 (4.4* NFL POD)
Both teams should get conservative in this game because their inabilities to stop the run both are struggling and also both Qb

Bears +9 (4.4* NFL POD) I don't see what reason the Eagles are this big of favorites. They clearly dominated Dallas last week, but I really feel that was not an indication of things to come. They were off a bye and as we all know Andy Reid is undefeated off a bye. Speaking of byes, the Bears are coming off a bye and this is a critical game because it could be a tie breaker that separates these two teams from the playoffs later in the season. For the Bears they are playing better and it's because they have a balanced offense and Cutler has been sacked just 3 times in the last 3 games. Can he continue that success? As long as they continue to feed Matt Forte I think they will. Vick has not played that well vs. the Bears in his career he's 0-3 as a starter and has a 76 rating and has been sacked 15 times in 5 games vs. Chicago. I look for the Bears to be in this game because of their defense, and special teams and ability to run the ball vs. the Eagles suspect defense. The last 4 games in this match up have been decided 3, 4, 4, and 5 points. Eagles do not deserve this much respect in what is a match up between two close teams in overall talent.

Titans -2 (5.5* NFL POD) I love the way the Bengals have played thus far, but honestly who have they beaten? They are ranked 4th in total defense but to me they are beatable defending the pass and I think Hasselback will have a good game at home. Bengals despite winning last week were lucky to win on the road and it won't happen again this week. The QB's they have faced so far this season are Travaris Jackson, Curtis Painter, Blake Gabbert, Alex Smith, Kyle Orton, and McCoy. Add in Fitzpatrick at home where they came from behind and I'm not very impressed with their 9th ranked pass defense. Bengals have the Ravens and Steelers coming up on the schedule so I think they lose focus a little while the Titans are 3-1 at home and should have a better idea moving the ball by playing Javon Ringer at RB more. Chris Johnson really put them behind this season and the Titans defense is under rated they are ranked 11th in scoring defense. I think the Bengals will have issues moving the ball and scoring TD's.

Dolphins +4.5 (4.4* PLAY); Dolphins +190 (1* bonus) Love the Dolphins here as the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on Sunday following a Monday night game. A hell of a Monday night game it was and an emotional roller coaster to get there. Yes, the Chiefs are playing better, but the Dolphins are not nearly as bad as their record indicates and I'm going to stick with them to cover the spread as they've played in some close games. They also have been able to run the ball as of late and the Chiefs are ranked 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Dolphins get Daniel Thomas back and Bush is coming off a 100 yard game don't be surprised to see the Dolphins steal this game out right. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team and the Chiefs are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite.

Chiefs +3.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Battle 1st TD +500 (1* play) Love the Chiefs here the Chargers looked awful a week ago late in the game vs. the Jets defense and the Chiefs have the secondary to give the Chargers issues. The Chiefs have really turned it around and they are allowing 40 yards less per game at home than on the road and 26 yards less over their last 3 games. They lost 17-20 in San Diego last time out in a close game, but penalties and missed opportunities were the difference in that game. The Chiefs team really came together and Arrowhead is not an easy place to play. I think it will be rocking tonight on Halloween and the Chiefs will get a win to force a 3 way tie on top of the division.

Patriots -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare and he rarely loses going 9-2 in his coaching career. Last year he beat the jets 45-3. Patriots should be hungry vs. the Steelers and Tom Brady is 6-1 in his career vs. the Steelers with 14 TD 3 INT and 286 yards/game. Steelers #2 ranking in total defense to me is not telling us the full story as the Steelers have faced just one offense all year in the Houston Texans. Brady and the Patriots have the #1 overall offense and they should be able to runt he ball against a suspect Steelers run defense that's not as good as years past. The Steelers have played the Titans, Jaguars and Cardinals the last 3 weeks and they also have wins vs. the Colts (barely) and the Seahawks. I don't see any playoff teams in that mix. Patriots are also off an ATS loss and are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 following an ATS loss. I thought the bye came at the right time for this team as their offense was scoring less and less points. Patriots should re discover themselves against a Steelers defense that's just not as good as years past and the Patriots are 46-22-3 ATS in their last 71 road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Pats get Jered Mayo back on defense and should be able to get pressure on Big Ben as the offensive line for the Steelers is just awful and Big Ben loves holding onto the football and throwing it deep.

Ravens -4 & U45 6 POINT TEASER (4.4* NFL POD)
We saw a complete decrease of TD

Bears -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Bears in London. Both teams are on the road and I'm confident in the Bears who continue to fly under the radar because of 3 losses, but as of right now they lost to the three best teams in the NFC in the Packers, Lions, and Saints. They are still the Bears and have better defense than the Bucs who rank in the the bottom of the league 25th in total defense. TB last road game had them losing 3-48 vs. the 49ers another physical defense. The loss before that on the road against the Redskins, a physical defense. I see a trend here I don't think the Bucs can match the physical intensity in this game. They are also without their starting C Jeff Faine which should be a big loss. On the Bears side I like the way J'Marcus Webb played vs. sack leader Jarred Allen. He should have the advantage vs. Clayborn I look for him to continue his progression. I also think he'll have an advantage as their will be more Bears fans in the stadium than Bucs this will be like a home game for them. Special Teams should play a critical role with both defenses dominating the game and that means Devin Hester. I believe Tampa will kick away from him, but that will lead to some mistakes and short punts. on the other side the Bears punter Podlesh is 7th in the league with 40.2 net yards per punt.

Falcons -3 @ -120 (5.5* NFL POD) Take out the poor 2nd halfs this team has played in back to back weeks and they'd have this line at a TD. I think the line is a bit off especially since Matt Ryan has lost only 3 times as a starter at home and two of them against Aaron Rodgers. The Panthers are also playing everyone close but I think this is the game they lose by a TD or more and it's also the game the Falcons get back to doing what they do best which is running the ball. Panthers can't stop anyone they are ranked 27th vs. the run and they are giving up TD's not field goals. Luckily CAm Newton has kept them in every game, but the Falcons are a different defense at home and we saw that vs. the Packers for a good portion of that game. The Panthers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a road dog 3.5 - 10pts and the Falcons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 following a SU loss. This team fights adversity well and they have some real leaders on both sides of the ball. The Falcons have started to rush the passer better and protect Matt Ryan better which are two ingredients to success. Lastly the Panthers are just 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 @ Atlanta.

Lions -6.6 (4.4* NFL POD) This seems like a lot of points for an unproven Lions team. However, I'm buying in they've had 3 of their 4 games on the road and they've shown they can come back from any defecit, and they have made timely turnovers and put major pressure on QB's. IF they can stop the run early this game is going to be a disaster for Jay Cutler. Lions also get Nick Fairley to make his debut on an already deep defensive line that should help improve the run defense as well as get more pressure on Cutler which won't turn into anything positive. It's been a long time since Monday night game and the Lions are pointing to this game to show they are for real. I believe it's the reason they came out flat against the Cowboys before recovering and showing their true talent in the 2nd half. I don't care that they can't run the ball the Bears on the road are a different team than they are at home especially defensively as they'll be on a fast carpet rather than the torn up field of Chicago. Bears are 31st in total defense and they've been equally as bad vs. the run and pass. Look for the Lions not to mess around early in this game and for them to get up early. They are 7th in points allowed and the Bears have been ineffective in the red zone. Lions also have double revenge going here they lost twice including 24-20 at home but that was with Drew Stanton at QB and Cutler throwing 21-26 for a TD and 0 interceptions. I think Cutler will have a few mistakes tonight that will help cover our TD spread on Monday night leading to the Lions 5-0 start!

Bengals -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Yes I'm backing the Bengals on our play of the day once again. They've shown they can put points up on the road and as bad as Andy Dalton was last week int he 1st half he's a cool customer coming back in the 2nd half with 11/16 in leading his team back vs. the Bills. The Bengals have the #1 total defense and that defense is for real they are 7th in run defense and they'll have to keep Maurice Jones Drew in check in force the rookie Blaine Gabbert to beat them. Gabbert has not impressed me and he goes up against rookie Dalton who just has more weapons in the passing game with Greshem and Green. That was what we saw in the 2nd half and I think it continues on Sunday here. The 3rd option of Jerome Simpson or Andre Caldwell have potential too. Jaguars just do not have enough offense in this game and the Bengals should win this game as the Jaguars come off a game where they gave up 500+ yards to the Saints. Look for the Bengals to get their first interception today and for the running game to continue it's success as well.

Colts +10.5 (4* NFL POD) Not a huge play for us tonight, but it's the only one for me. Who are the Bucs to be laying double digit points anyway? They do not out score opponents the offense is ranked 22nd in the league and the defense is 24th. I think Curtis Painter will have a good enough night to keep his team in the game. After all this was the guy the team wanted and he's clearly more capable of running the offense than Kerry Collins. Josh Freeman is good, but he is very much like Ben Roethlisberger he waits for plays to develop and that will provide pass protection which is something they may not be able to do against Mathis and Freeney. I expect just an ugly game Freeman is the hot pick based on what they did last year and I think this line is just way too much. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games and they barely got by the Vikings, and struggled with a FAlcons team that has been terrible on the road to start the year. Colts are still believing they can make the playoffs especially since Peyton has yet to be ruled out for the year. Not saying he comes back, but this team is far from throwing in the towel which is what this line is suggesting.

Bengals +3.5 buy 1/2 -120 (5.5* NFL POD) Wow, shocker right I'm not backing the Bills like the rest of the world. Guess what the Bengals defense is pretty tough, and I think the difference here is their ability to be strong up front on defense. Bengals defensive line goes about 8 deep and they are good. This is the first defense the Bills will play as they faced 23rd, 28th, and 32nd ranked total defense in the first three weeks. Bengals lost to the Bills a year ago and I think they will be playing on revenge with a shot to win in the end. Bengals are allowing just 18ppg and 88 rush yards for a total of 276.3 yards total. They'll hold the Bills to field goals instead of TD's and I expect Andy Dalton to come back with a big performance today to keep his team in the game all day long. Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog where they always play solid defense and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as a dog of .5-3points. I can't really call the Bills lucky, but in reality that's what they've been the ball has bounced their way I don't expect that to take them to 4-0 today.

Cowboys -3 (4.4* NFL POD) I had the Redskins in both of their first two games, but now they go on the road and I know the injuries have been a big deal and a reason why the Cowboys are -3 favorites here instead of more, but I think the injuries are over rated at this point. Romo's injury got better not worse from how they were where he led his team on the road against the 49ers and he looked good. Romo usually turns up with a great game when people expect him to struggle. Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are still out there even though Austin is now out. It appears Bryant will play and if so I think this offense won't miss Austin a bit. Jason Witten had 10 receptions and a 140 yards in the home win with Jon Kitna at QB. Redskins defense just is not the same on the road as it is at home and I think they'll struggle stopping the Cowboys and on the other side I think we can expect a nightmare performance from Grossman. Though he's looked great first few games he'll have to win this game because the Cowboys are #2 in stopping the run. Cowboy get Terrence Newman back to help their secondary and I think that will help them concentrate on TE Fred Davis.

Dolphins +3 -125 buy 1/2 (5.5* MAX POD) Love the Dolphins and I'd take them straight up, but when your book has them at +2.5 there is no reason not to be smart and buy the half point in my opinion. First of all this Dolphins team is much better than they have played. Starting the season playing the AFC's two best offenses in the Texans and the Patriots was never going to produce good results especially after a shortened off season. Today the Dolphins begin their season. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a dog while the Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. This will be a big game for Dolphins rookie Daniel Thomas. Right now the Browns can be run on they have the 24th run defense and they faced Benson and Addai from the Bengals and Colts. Those guys are good, but they are old news and I loved what I saw from Thomas a week ago 18 carries for 107 yards. I really believe he can be the next big thing in the league. Sprinkle in Reggie Bush and I think the Dolphins should have no trouble moving the ball. Dolphins struggled at home vs. the Browns a year ago in a 13-10 defeat, but Henne threw 3 interceptions and that number will clearly go down with a balanced attack and Brandon Marshall who did not play in that game. Also the Dolphins held Hillis in check in that game 18-57 yards 3.1 ypc. Hillis really has not looked good this year and I think we will continue to see more of Hardesty, but not today. Hillis will struggle on the year he has 3.4 ypc vs. the Colts/Bengals. Dolphins run defense is better and their overall defense which is suspect when you look at the numbers is inflated because they faced the Texans and Patriots. Expect the Dolphins to really come out and make a point in this game. Their offense has looked good and their defense won't have a problem with the Browns offense led by McCoy who dinks and dunks down the field behind a passing offense ranked 25th. His 56.9% completion percentage surprises me. I love the Dolphins to win this one.

Giants/Rams U44.5 (4.4* NFL POD) The stat on the board is the Rams inability to stop the run and the idea the Giants are going to come out and try to runt he ball. Yes they gave up 236 yards to the Eagles, but 97 came from Vick and they held them in check really through 3 quarters until the 4th. They can stop the run better than the pass and the Giants will try to run the ball early and fail and turn to the pass. I think that keeps this total under the mark tonight. Both teams have injuries that pretty much even out and both teams attack the QB and both teams struggled on 3rd down conversations last week they were last in the league in 3rd down conversions after week 1. That won't = points on the board and I think we will see a very ugly game tonight because of that. Eli Manning got sacked 4 times expect him to struggle yet again because Steve Spagnola knows this offense more than anyone when he was on the Giants staff. He'll be really agressive with the blitz packages and they were able to get to Vick pretty regularly and I expect them to be able to do that tonight ending a lot of drives for the Giants keeping this total under. Rams also get Robert Quinn to debut tonight. The Rookie has a lot of talent and should really help this team in the pass rush alongside of Chris Long and James Hall. On the other side expect the Rams to really struggle. Giants get Tuck back tonight and they have been able to stuff the run. Cadillac Williams will get most of the carries with Stephen Jackson's injury. I expect the Rams to attack the Giants in the air at first, but that will result in a lot of pressure on Bradford who I'm not so sure the Rams can protect long enough to find open men. At the end of the day I see a very sloppy game with turnovers not turning into points. I think the defenses will have advantages and I don't think the offenses will try to do too much.

Cowboys -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) People need to get off Tony Romo's back. I liked what I heard from him he is a veteran that can forget bad performances at this point. In 4th quarter Romo over his career has 38 TD's to 18 interceptions only throwing an interception every 31 attempts in the 4th quarter so I think the story about him playing clutch is way over hyped. People forget they nearly beat one of the best teams on the road int he Jets. Romo was 23-36 342 yards and that's impressive vs. a very good Jets secondary. Dez Bryant is starting to be the clear #1 and I think he's up for a big day on Sunday. Jason Witten should cause some big match up advantages as well. For the Niners offense we haven't seen much as Ginn Jr took 2 returns back for touch downs that helped him win the game. I still don't trust Alex Smith and I think the Cowboys though they are banged up in the secondary should be able to get away with that with their pass rush as the Niners offensive line is a work in progress. They averaged just 2.7 ypc vs. the Seahawks and the Cowboys were solid at stopping the run against the Jets. Niners are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win and 6-22-3 ATS in their last 31 following a win by more than 14 points.

Broncos -3 -120 (4.5* NFL POD) Broncos lost 59-14 last year at home in 1 of 2 games that the Raiders dominated them last year on a combined 98-37. I smell revenge here with the Broncos who were a pass happy team last year. That did not match up well when the Raiders were #2 in the league in getting to the QB and they had an elite secondary led by Nnamdi Asomugha. In the home loss Brandon Lloyd who led the league in receiving had just 3 targets as Asomugha just took him out of the game. While the Raiders safeties are solid the corners are a huge question mark with Chris Johnson (16 tackles, 2 INT) and raw rookies DeMarcus Van Dyke, and Chimdi Chekwa. This is going to have a few impacts on this game and this team this year. #1 I guarantee the Raiders will not be in the top 5 in pass defense or sacks like they were a year ago as they ranked #2 in both respectifully. Also look for Kyle Orton to test this team on the edges with speedy receivers. lastly Oakland was 29th vs. the run and the Raiders did not do anything to really change that. John Fox who takes over as the Broncos head coach is a run first type coach and I expect a much more balanced approach from the Broncos this year which should have an impact in week #1. Oakland was tops in 3rd down stops allowing just 34.8% without Asomugha this is going to change. Denver has the edge here and I think they also have the edge in the passing game which they did not a year ago.. Now how do they stop the Raiders on defense because they did give up 98 points a year ago. Enter Von Miller and immediately you improve your defense which was last in the league in sacks a year ago. I think you see him getting to Campbell early and often and playing a huge part in the Broncos win. Denver has won 16 of their last 22 week 1 games and are 11-0 in their last 11 home openers. Oakland has lost 11 straight on Monday night. Lastly Kevin Boss replaced Zach Miller and though Boss was productive he's a new player and not as good as Miller. It will take time for Boss and Campbell to get on the same page.

Falcons -1.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Two of the best teams from a year ago and I think it says a lot that the Falcons have moved to slight favorites here. Bears have disgruntled players two key players want a better contract in Forte and Briggs and while it won't have a huge impact they still won't be as hungry on Sunday's. Bottom line though the reason I'm on the Falcons so large is their offense and defense has improved for 2011. No question about it they were +52 yards compared to the Bears offense and they add Julio Jones who will be able to stretch the field a bit and remove the double team on Rhoddy White. I'm excited to see what this offense can do against a very good defense on the road. Falcons put up 200 points on the road a year ago and went 6-2 so I'm confident they should have no trouble scoring especially behind a returned offensive line which has been the key to the success of Ryan over the past 3 years. Too bad Cutler can not say the same. Bears offensive line is a mess they have a new center and Cutler was sacked an NFL worst 52 times a year ago. Now the Falcons added Ray Edwards from the Vikings to go on the other side of John Abraham and this pass rush is going to be one of the best in the league. There are also whispers that the Bears are not happy that Roy Williams is getting playing time and that could result in players quitting on a team. Overall I do not like the attitude on the Bears side vs. what is going on with Matt Ryant and the Falcons. I think Falcons role by a touch down.

Saints/packers Over 47.5 (4.4* NFL POD); Saints +5 (3* play) I got to say that with the short pre season with teams getting in late it will have more of an impact on the defense. As always the offense knows where the ball is going the defense does not. Yes the Packer were ranked 2nd in points allowed and yes they were 5th in sacks, but that was last year. Sometimes returning the same players in this league does not guarantee you results in a new year. The Saints have been said to have a very organized off season and I love their three headed monster in the backfield with Sproles, Ingram and Thomas to help Brees out with balance which they will have. Brees also has a electrifying TE in his own Jimmy Graham who will out play Jermicah Finley tonight shocking everyone as these two teams go back and forth. The game will end up getting decided by a field goal or 4 points on a touchdown to win the game in my opinion. Saints put up 51 points in 2008 on this team and though it

Packers -2.5 (5.5 Dime POD)
This game to me comes down to one thing.. Can the Steelers stop Aaron Rodgers? Forget all about the experience that the Steelers have because that is just over analyzed. These are professionals and they'll be ready regardless if they haven't played in the Super Bowl. To me seeing what Sanchez did to the Steelers int he 2nd half was a big indicator on how much trouble the Steelers will have stopping Rodgers and the dangerous receiving corp of Green Bay.

Green Bay won't have to run it at all and the loss of Pouncey at Center for the Steelers is too much to over come. They don't have a shut down corner and we saw what the Patriots did to this team as well when they spread the defense out. You may not be able to run on Pitt, but you sure can pass and that's why the Packers are favored in this game because they are one of the elite passing teams in the game. Perfect field conditions will make for a fast track for Green Bay and I still am not convinced Troy Polamalou is 100%. I mean did he even play against the Jets? I don't remember.

Packers -3 -120 buy

Seahawks +16/U49 (4.4 Dime Teaser POD); Seahawks +10.5 -120 buy 1/2 (3-Dimes)
I get it the Seahawks have a bad defense, but everyone is forgetting a few things and I'm happy to be one of the few on the Seahawks here today. Bears are 30th in total offense 28 passing, and 22nd running. They go up against a suspect defense that struggled on the road, but this is a good match up for them I believe. Cutler is not Brees and I expect lots of runs to Forte to keep the clock moving and a balanced attack. Brees had to throw basically all game to put up the numbers he did which was why the game was such a high scoring game.

Next, this game comes down to, do you trust Cutler? I don't time and time again I've seen him not live up to his name and make mistakes. This is his playoff debut and it's going to be cold he was sacked 6 times in week 6 vs. the Seahawks and was just 17-39. Hassleback had a good game against the Bears secondary which is 20th vs. the pass. Look for the Seahawks to spread it out and get the ball in the hands of Mike Williams who had 10 catches for 123 yards in the first match up. I just don't believe the Bears can be double digit favorites with a league's 30th ranked offense especially with the momentum that the Seahawks have carried into this game.

Packers +3 -120 buy half 5.5 dime pod
All six of packers losses have come buy 4 PTs or less they are playin their
Best football. Not only is the
Defense flying around but the offense is methodical an balanced with the emergence of Starks. I went back an watched the game and it could have gone either way in Atlanta during the regular season. Packers offense looked much better and I love Aaron Rodgers ability to scramble and pick up yards and avoid the sack. You can't blitz him he either finds the open guy or has awareness to move in the pocket and find an open lane to run or allow receivers more time to get open. There were plenty of bad play calls that lost the packers that game but overall I think they are the better team and I think they win out right!

Packers +3 -120 buy 1/2 (5.5 Dime POD)
I'm going with the hotter team in this game and that would be the Packers and it's not because of their offense, but rather their defense. Their defense flies around and is exactly the kind that will give Vick troubles. Vick was sacked a bunch down the stretch and that's why he comes into the post season not playing since the Vikings game. I expect an overall close game, but I trust the Packers defense which is a top 5 defense they can stop the run up front with BJ Raji or get to your QB with creative blitz packages including Woodson and Clay Mathews. Look for this to be another entertaining game.

Seahawks +10 (4.4 Dime POD)
The Saints are just decimated with injuries probably the biggest one that nobody is talking about is Jimmy Graham who really came on at the end of the year in the red zone. Not having him along with the running back injuries. Seattle is one of the toughest places to go and play. More fall starts from road teams happen here than any other stadium in the league. There is also supposed to be some rain which could slow down Brees and the Saints just enough to have a chance in the 4th quarter.

Texans -3 (5.5 Dime POD)No Garrard, no Jones-Drew. Texans on revenge for that hail mary play earlier this year. Jags know they don't have a prayer with the Colts facing the Titans and without their two big stars to make the playoffs. I expect Texans to come out with a purpose at home.

Giants +3.5 -120 buy 1/2 (5.5 Dime POD) Giants +150 (2-Dime Bonus)
What a collapse a week ago against the Eagles. All in all this defense still looks good and I'm not in love with Rodgers at home coming off a concussion against the best pass rush in the league. He's going to be under pressure and I'm not sure how he will react. I think he's going to show some rush especially when you come back to a game where you are facing a team that's going to pressure you.

Giants also have the leagues #2 pass defense which falls into the strength of what Green Bay does. I think the Giants can cover the Packers and on the other side I believe they'll run against the Pack who are 19th vs. the run. Giants when they are concentrating on their run game have maybe the NFC's best rushing attack behind Jacobs and Bradshaw. Manning has suffered by lots of tip picks and leads the league but it's not as bad as it looks on paper I still trust what Manning can do and he has arguably a top 5 WR to help him in Hakeem Nicks. Look for him to have a big game along Kevin Boss especially if the Pack try to stop the run. All in all I believe the Giants win this game. It's unfortunate because the Packers have a lot of talent and I'd love to see them in the playoffs, but still Rodgers though puts up huge numbers has not come close to living up to what Favre did.

Cardinals +7.5 beted (4.4 Dime POD)
Cardinals vs. Cowboys what another ugly game over the holidays as we had Pittsburgh and Carolina on Thursday where we gave you the Steelers. This time I'm playing the under dog role as Dallas should not be up for this game. Playing on Xmas on the road where they are 1-5 ATS as favorites in their last 6 against an under rated Cardinals team defense.

We know the story they struggle to find a QB and now they have the rookie out of Fordham starting. So what makes me think the Cardinals can cover the spread? Well they are 3-4 at home this year 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as home under dogs and their defense is playing their best ball of the season giving up just an average of 293 total yards over their last 3 games. That would put them #4 on the season in total yard allowed. This is a team that wins on defense at home they beat the Broncos by 30 points, they also beat a good Raiders team here as well as the Saints by 10 and lost to the Bucs by only 3 points. Cards are as bad as any team on the road but when they play at home they are competitive. That's all they will need to be against a Cowboys team that is 4-2 since Garrett took over, but Phillips who called the defense has been missed on that side of the ball where the Cowboys are now giving up 27.3 points per game since his departure. I expect a game played in the 20's with the Cardinals having a chance to win.

Vikings +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 (5-Dime) Vikings +13/U40.5 (2.2 Bonus Teaser)
Love the Vikings here it's not often you see a home dog more than a TD in the weather conditions they'll have tonight. It's going to be snowy and cold and you got a third string QB taking over for the Vikings in Joe Webb. We saw his big arm last game on one play to Sidney Rice and I'll be interested to see what he can do with his feet. I think he'll be able to do some decent things in this weather because he is a very mobile QB. I'm sure the game plan will be very vanilla for him. We already saw what the Bears offense could not do in snow vs. the Patriots in their own stadium. Well the Vikings defense is better than New England to be quite honest with you and they are still very under rated group. Expect lots of running in this game and for it to come down to a field goal.

Baltimore -2 (5.5 Dime POD); Bills +5.5 (3.3 Dime play); Lions +4.5 (3-Dime Play)

I'll talk about Baltimore here real quick as they are 44-21-1 ATS in their last 66 as a home favorite. The Sains are red hot, but a closer look you see wins against teams like Minnesota, San Francisco, Carolina (twice), Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle, St. Louis and Cincinnati. That's not real impressive to me. This will be their toughest road game of the year as the Ravens play excellent ball here.

Bills on the other hand have been in just about every game they have played in and they've played great teams and have been right in the thick of things on the road vs. Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and a 3 point loss vs. the Bears. Fitzpatrick is an intelligent QB who doesn't force the ball and has turned one of his WR into a star. I believe Buffalo can pass on the Dolphins and the Dolphins right now can not put up points their offense is pretty bad and one dimensional.

Vikings +4.5 (3.3 Dime OE play); Ravens -3 (4.4 Dime POD)
I like the Vikings in the early game. I think Minny defense steps up as they have in recent weeks overall they have the #6 total defense and the Giants are still banged up on the offensive line with two starters out. Vikings have injury problems of their own, but I expect Favre to play and if he doesn't I think Jackson poses a lot of issues for the Giants anyway. IN the end this will be a low scoring and close game til the end.

Ravens play a bad defense in Houstonw ho is ranked 31st and not getting any better. I expect Houston to be stopped offensively as they struggle vs. physical defenses. Ravens will get the out right win in this spot as their offense will click as JOe Flaco throws over 300 yards with Mason and Boldin having huge days.

Colts -3 (4.4 Dime POD)
Titans are the worst team right now just 6 points in their last 2 games combined! And no offensive TD's in their last 13 quarters. The Colts can at least still score points and if Peyton isn't turning the ball over they beat the Patriots and a hot Cowboys team. Now he faces a defense in the Titans that is banged up on the defensive line and has a 24th total defense and 23rd pass 22 rush. This is not a defense that is strong up front like in years past that have given the Colts issues. I expect Peyton to resort to a check down style game rather than his timing routes with receivers who he's unfamiliar with. Also expect a lot more running which will set up the play action. Kerry Collins has yet to look good just a 68.8 QB rating and Moss has 5 receptions for 0 TD's in 4 games with the Titans. NOw they do get Kenny Britt back, but how good will he be with Kerry Collins tonight? Indy is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games in a must win game I trust Peyton Manning to get a lead early and unleash their pass rush on a bad offense with an unmobile QB in Kerry Collins at the helm.

Redskins +7.5 buy 1/2 5-Dime POD' Lions +4.5 (3.3 Dime OE play)
Skins are 6-2-1 ats in their last 9 road games and they have played many opponents close on the road. Despite their rankings I still think their defense is under rated and the Giants are banged up on offensive line with a possible of 3 guys out of the line up on offensive line and two star WR out in Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks. McNabb has always played the Giants well and he's had a pretty good year passing the ball if he can avoid the interceptions the Skins can win out right.


Lions
Lions have played extremely well at home. The blow out loss at home vs. teh Patriots and the Bears win over the Eagles gives us a very big inflated line here in my opinion. First thing I think of was their first match up when Calvin Johnson caught the ball that would have given them the score, but if you saw that game you know what I'm talking about. That was on the road and the Lions are at home where their offense has clicked even against good defenses. Bears look like the old bears right now but I think they have a hang over against a hungry Lions team that is playing on extra rest!

Vikings -1.5 betonline (5.5 Dime POD);
Lesly Frazier takes over as the head coach and just like when the Cowboys got rid of Wade Phillips I think it's going to have a huge impact on the season. I expect the Vikings to come out and run the ball against a Redskins defense that gave up 260 and 151 yards in their last 2 games. Redskins are depleted with injuries they had 16 guys that could not practice this week and their coach even said it's hard to practice with that many guys out.

Vikings got to be hungry and I think they will play hard for Frazier who has been a top head coaching candidate for some time now. Expect a clean game from Favre as I think the game plan will be lots of running with AP and play action throws from Favre. If Favre plays mistake free and we all know that's a big IF this will be close, but if Favre can clean it up for his new coach then I think the Vikes come out and win by a TD or more. Again I expect lots of running and on the other side of the ball the Vikings are allowing almost 100 yards less than the Redskins last ranked total defense. Redskins can't do much on offense either as McNabb is in a completely new offense and he really hasn't been handed the keys yet. Vikings will take away the running game as they are one of the best in the league in stopping the run once again as Redskins start Keiland Williams as their two starting RB are out once again. Next McNabb would like to go to Chris Cooley but the Vikings have controlled most teams TE only allowing TE to catch 38 balls for 362 and 4 TD's that's among the best in the league.

Lions +7 5dimes (5.5 Dime POD)
I love the Lions here this team has played very well as 5 of their 8 losses have been by 5 points or less. People really under value how hard it is to come on a short week after playing a tough team in the Colts and play on the road. The Lions have played extremely well at home and at 2-8 they are much better than their record suggests. They are 2-2 at home but every game has been close their two losses were to arguably the best teams in the NFL in the Eagles 32-35 and the Jets 20-23. Now they play the Patriots as a +7 under dog because they lost the Cowboys (a hot team) and they nearly covered that game and because the Patriots just beat two great teams out of the AFC in the Steelers and the Colts. Let me remind you that the STeelers are banged up and so are the Colts I'm not as impressed with those wins as the majority of the public and Vegas.

Lions strength is where New England struggles. Pass coverage. Expect the Lions to test this team early and often as Calvin Johnson, Nate Burlesson have advantages over the Pats secondary. I also think the Lions are better up front on defense than many give them credit for and that comes down to Ndamukong Suh who will go up against an under sized Koppen.

How do you beat Tom Brady? You pressure him and the Lions have an impressive 27 sacks. Expect them to really dial up a variety of blitzes on Thursday in what is their super bowl game. Overall the Lions will score their points as they have averaged 33.2 ppg at home this season. X-factor is Stefan Logan as he can take it back at any point in the game. If he can take one back the Lions won't only cover they will win out right!

Redskins +7 (5.5 Dime NFL POD)
I love taking a team a week after they got embarassed. I expect the Redskins to come out with a lot of fire especially on defense. Watching the tape must not have been fun and I've seen this defense play much better. I like how the corners tackle on the outside in DeAngelo Hall and Carlos Rogers making it difficult for Chris Johnson to do what he does. On the other side McNabb and the offense continues to get better and I think they'll have some success against the Titans who are 20th in total yards allowed and 25th vs. the pass. McNabb is #13 in passing offense and he gets the return of Clinton Portis on Sunday making the offense that much better. Look for Cooley to have a huge game for the Skins as the Titans struggle guarding TEs.

Dolphins -2 (4-Dime OE play)
This line is off if the Dolphins QB situation was different they'd be -4 favorites in my opinion. The Dolphins have dominated the Bears division and I think Tyler Thigpen is more than capable of coming up with a big win. This team is better than many realize and they have struggled at home another reason why there is a weak line. However, the Bears are not that good and the Dolphins will prove it tonight. Expect the Dolphins to go back to their running game that they have seem to go away because they want to play with their new toy Brandon Marshall. Tonight it'll be all about the running game. Thigpen can run the ball too and if you don't know about him go back to 2 years ago and look up what he did as the Chiefs QB.

Redskins +3.5 4.4 dime NFL pod
I like the redskins as home dogs on Monday night off the bye where shanahan has a Lon history of good performances with extra preparation he'll be working hard to restore his relationship with mcnabb as the skins are right in the thick of things in the NFC east. The skins are still under rated and I see them having some big plays down field with all the injuries in the
Secondary for the eagles as they are pretty banged up. Either way I think it's a three point game though eagles are on revenge the skins have a huge benefit coming out of the bye. Philly has not played great on the road with a three point win in Detroit and San Fran and a blowout loss recently at Tennessee I think Vegas under estimated what the skins can do at home off a bye week under Monday night lights or then again maybe they just know the public will be all over the eagles for me I stay with my strategy of backing the redskins as under dogs!

Cowboys +14 -120 buy 1/2 (5-Dime POD);
I like the Cowboys new look and new attitude now that Wade Phillips is out and Jason Garrett is in. He'll be sure to have his team ready and I think this game will be much closer than many expect as it's an in divisional game. The public is just pouring in on the Giants at -13.5. Vegas is loving the action why wouldn't they move this to -14 to for 78% of the bettors who are on the Giants to have to win by more than 2 TD's. This Cowboys team still has plenty of talent and I expect it to be a close game that the Giants win late.

Rams +5.5 (3.3 Dime Oddsline Error Bonus)
The Rams are 0-3 on the road and haven't won on the road in quite some time, but a closer look and we some close games this year on the road. They are off the bye just like the Niners and I think this is a game decided by a field goal. Bradford is really growing up with 5 TD's and 0 INT's in his last 3 games. This just feels like a magic season for the Rams now all they have to do is win on the road and they go up against the #22 total offense and their defense should keep this game close they are under rated #10 in the league James Hall and Chris Long off the edge should give 49ers some issues.

Broncos +1 4.4 Dime OE PLAY
I like the Broncos here coming off the bye they have the #31 run defense which will have to step up against the Chiefs, but we saw the Raiders who struggle to stop the run able to stop the chiefs. That's because they are one dimensional. Cassel won't make mistakes, but he can't realy spread the field so I think the Broncos have an advantage with Kyle Orton and an offense that has clicked at home and has been tough to stop. Look for the Broncos to make one last stand before finishing the year in the basement of the division this will be a statement game for them here today.

Falcons -1 (4.4 Dime POD)
I can not ignore the way the Falcons play at home. They are now 17-1 at home when Matt Ryan Starts which is an incredible number. Tonight I think they win a very tough game. I've seen the Ravens on the road and they have not been impressive offensively. I expect them to win a close game here tonight. They are scoring just 14.2 points per game on the road and are 2-2 but could easily be 0-4 with the 1 point win against the Jets to open the season which had more to do with the Jets and less to do with the Ravens. They also beat Pitt who was playing with their 3rd string QB. Both come off the short week which is tough as it is, but the road team traveling on 3 days rest is even tougher.

Bengals +6 -110 (4.4 Dime POD)
This is the biggest game of the Bengals season and it's the style of game they love to play. I expect a very low scoring game for the Bengals Steelers and it'll be a hard fought game. Bengals will be trying to save their head coaches job and I think they pull out all the stops. The Steelers defense has been beatable in back to back weeks giving up 20 points in each. Brees showed the blueprint with a dink and dunk technique that Carson Palmer and his receiving weapons can surely duplicate. Pitt is giving up 68% pass completion to opposing QB's. Palmer should have a decent game and if he doesn't turn the ball over I expect the Bengals to be in position to win this game. On the other side Bengals defense is still under rated. Although they are beat up I don't think the Steelers will be able to run much on them and Bengals will finally put some pressure on a QB as the Steelers offensive line is suspect putting Big Ben in danger. At the end of the day I think it's a close game one that the Bengals have a chance to win and for that you have to go with the home dog.

Raiders pk (5.5 Dime POD)
I like the Raiders going into tomorrow. Chiefs are way too one dimensional and even though they have the best running game I believe the Raiders have the players to stack the box and let their corners play one on one on the outside. McFadden is the real deal finally getting a shot to play to his strengths which is on stretch plays and getting to the edge. Look for Cassell to finally throw some picks he's been pretty much dink and dunk and not a lot of the offense is coming from him. Sooner or later teams are going to catch up. Raiders last two weeks have been great offensively and I think it will be again.

Texans +6 -120 buy 1/2 (4.5 Dime POD); hou/ind o45/+11.5 teaser
I like the Texans to take advantage of a Colts team that is pretty beat up. Both teams have key injuries despite coming off a bye, but again this has been a match up that has been close the past few years and I think it will again tonight. Look for Peyton Manning to pick up the pace because he doesn't have much of a running game with Mike Hart the third string the starter. I think to take advantage of a weaker offense he'll go no huddle a few times. On the other side look for Houston off the bye to look good offensively. I don't think Foster has another monster game as he did in week 1, but I think Schaub and the offense will continue clicking.

Lions -2.5 (4-Dime OE play)
Lions come off the by and have been great at home score 44 and 32 against two pretty good teams in the Rams and the Eagles. Sunday they'll be looking to do it against the Redskins a bottom of the league defense. Redskins are better than what they have shown no doubt on defense, but playing a team like the Lions after a bye is a dangerous task that I don't think they'll be able to deliver on with a less than 100% McNabb. We have cashed in on the REdskins many times this year including last weeks 5.5 Dime POD, but this week we feel it necessary to fade them as I really like how the Lions have played against a very tough schedule. They have come to play every week and this week with Stafford back they'll have a lot of juice.

49ers -2 (4.4 Dime POD);

49ers get Troy Smith to start at QB and I think he adds a completely new dynamic to this game. Ya he's short, yes he can have trouble inside the pocket throwing, but at the end of the day I think he's going to provide a huge spark for this team here today. Broncos just got a big beat down from the Raiders last week and I think the 49ers will hurt them with Frank Gore here today as they are ranked 30th defending the run. Troy Smith will get outside the pocket and make plays that Alex Smith could not. I really like the line movement on this game despite all the public being on the Broncos.

Cowboys -3 -120 betus (4.8 Dime POD)
I like the Cowboys here I think they get rid of the mistakes when they are at home again here. Cowboys have had a very difficult schedule to start the season and now they come home to play an inter division battle with the Giants who swept them a year ago. Cowboys have talent it's all the mental mistakes that have held them back. Cowboys are #3 in total yards on offense and #3 in total yards allowed on defense, but they are #28 and #31 in points scored and allowed. The two do not go hand in hand. Many know this and I think they finally put their act together here tonight.

Vikings +3 -110 bodog (4-Dime Play)
I like the Vikes tonight as Favre is starting to click with the offense as they looking more and more healthy with Percy harvin and Randy Moss. On the other side the Packers are beat up with injuries all over the place and I think they'll continue to struggle here against a Viking team that is going to start rounding into form. Packers are 21st against the run and I think the Vikings and Adrian Peterson will control the game. Minny is #6 vs. the pass and that's a bad match up for a Packers team that can't seem to run the ball going against the strength of this Vikings team.

Redskins +3 -110 (5.5 Dime POD)
First of all if you are buying into a Redskins total defense ranked dead last you are not paying attention. Redskins have arguably the toughest schedule starting the year in terms of the offenses their defense have had to go against. They had the Packers, Cowboys, Colts, Texans, and the Eagles. Those are total offense ranks of 13, 2, 4, 5, and 3. With the Rams coming in at 20th as their other opponent. Hard for any defense to look good, but now they face Cutler and the Bears.

Cutler is a dynamic player if he wants to be, but he makes too many poor decisions and his offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL. He's been sacked 15 times in his last two games and I don't see them winning this game despite being at home. Their offenses doesn't do anything well ranked in the bottom third in every offensive statistical category including 29th in total offense, 22, 26 in pass/run offense and 22nd in points scored. Now they do have a solid defense especially against the run, but they are 18th vs. the pass the strength of an improving passing game from McNabb that's already ranked 9th. McNabb gets better every week and the running game has started to click a little with Ryan Torrain who knows Shanahan's offense being able to put up some big numbers. At the end of the day this will be a low scoring defensive game and I trust McNabb over Cutler to not make mistakes.

Jaguars +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
Normally like the Titans as I think they are under rated but this is a bad match up for them on their second week in a row on the road. Jaguars are a tough beat at home just ask the Colts. They can run the ball better than the Titans and have a solid run stop unit them selves. This game is normally all about running the ball and stopping the run. Both teams do that extremely well and I say push there. Difference is QB and pass defense and both teams have bad pass defenses ranked 26th Titans and 29th Jaguars. Advantage Jaguars for being home again as playing QB on the road is not the same. Plus Garrard has been really accurate and avoiding the turnovers with 33-42 with 341 passing yards and 5 TD 1 Int in his last two games both wins. Think the Jaguars win outright like they did last year by 20 points at home. home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 match ups between these two!

Falcons +2 -110 betus (5.5 Dime Pod)
Falcons already won on the road against the Saints and I think this is an easier trip for them going to Philly where they haven't had much success but that is about to change this year. Matt Ryan and his #2 running game should be able to move the ball against an Eagls run defense ranked #24. Eagles are banged up and Kolb starts again this tim against a Falcons #10 defense which is #2 in scoring defense. Eagles can score points, but their game changes a lot with Kolb in and Vick out. I think he'll struggle and I think the Falcons will take this game out right!

NYJ/MIN U39 -110 (4.4 UNITS)
This total is way too high in my opinion for a game that is going to be won by running the ball and scoring defense. Both teams are ranked at the top in scoring defenses. The Jets #7 and the Vikings #2. The Vikings have struggled mightily on defense and they get Randy Moss to add to Favre's weapons.. The bye week helped, but Favre faces a Jets defense that will look to keep him in check with the return of Pace and Revis.. I think Favre starts to put it together soon here, but not this week on the road against one of the better pass defenses in the league when healthy and now they are. Peterson will get lots of rushes and the same goes on the other side of the ball. Vikings also have a top 10 rush defense that will be put to test by the #1 running game.. Again I don't see the Jets being able to do much with the running game and the Vikings have an under rated secondary ranked #7 and they faced the Saints who like to bomb it away as well as the Lions who normally pass 75% of the time yet they are still ranked at #7. The Jets #4 scoring offense may open some eyes and be jumping in bed with Mark Sanchez, but he has faced some very bad secondaries and overall defenses in the Bills, Dolphins and Patriots. I think he struggles and the Jets will run a lot tonight.

Lions -3 -110 betonline (5.5 Dime POD)
Love the Lions in this spot despite being 0-4 they have played three of their four games on the road and all 4 have been against teams that arguably look playoff bound in the Eagles, Vikings, Bears and Packers. They didn't get blown out in either of these games and I think back home to play the Rams is a good thing. Rams are 2-2, but they have played Cardinals(not the same), Oakland, Redskins, and the Seahawks. They have the 21st pass defense while the Lions continue to look strong in the passing game ranked #7, but expect the Lions to take advantage of the weak run defense the Rams have.

On defense the Lions have held their own I've seen them make goal line stops against the Bears and I was impressed. I don't think Stephen Jackson who terrorized this team a year ago will do it again he seems to be injured still or has lost a step as he's averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. With Suh and the acquisition of Vanden Bosch have really given this team a new look on defense. The ranks are not that great, but considering who they have played I think it's still quite impressive.

Dolphins pk -110 (4.4 Dime POD)
I like the Dolphins here as they have shown that they are not only about the wild cat. The Patriots have struggled in Miami and the Dolphins have played well on MOnday nights here. Patriots offense looks as good as any, but their defense is as bad as any and now they start a rookie at CB in Kyle Arrington a guy in his second year out of Hofstra, a school that doens't even have a football program any longer. They are already #28 against the pass this team gave up 30 points to the Bills. Dolphins are bitter about the loss the the Jets and the Patriots don't have the defense to win this game.. I think the Dolphins are capable of coming up with some stops considering Brady and the Patriots offense is one dimensional. I'll go with the home team with the better defense, and more balanced offensive attack every day of the week. This line has been moving towards the dolphins all week despite only 33% of the money coming in on them.

Redskins +6 -110 bodog (4.4 Dime POD)
Redskins were clearly looking ahead after getting beat by the Rams last week, but that's an improved Rams team to be quite honest. Redskins however are going to be fighting for their QB on Sunday. All the rave on Vick is legit he looks like a complete QB thus far, but I need to see more as he just went up against #30 and #29 defenses. This is a division game that is always played close. I don't see this game being warranted 6 points to either team. Redskins led with 11 minutes to go last year in Philly 24-16 before McNabb brought his team back. McNabb now on the Skins and starting to get really comfortable as the REdskins are #11 in total offense which is miles from where they were a year ago. Their #32 defense is not as bad as it looks as they have faced two top 5 offenses in Dallas and Houston. Washington 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings and Philly looked bad against a good opponent at home the last time against the Packers.

Bears +3 @+100 BODOG (4-Dime POD)
Another home dog on Monday night and the public is loving the early hype that surrounds the Packers, but the Bears might have something to say about it. The line opened at +3.5 for the Bears and with just 25% of the public on them the line has moved to +3. Bodog and a couple other books has this at +100. I think the Bears defense is legit. They have an iffy secondary, but make up for it against a west coast offense like the Packers with arguably the three best linebackers a team has with Urlacher/Briggs, and Tinoisamoa. The addition of Julius Peppers shows here tonight.

Offensively I think Cutler and the Bears can take advantage of the Packers secondary like the Eagles started to late in that game. While the OL needs a little work they played better in that second half vs. Dallas and they face anotehr 3-4 defense something they are used to through the first two weeks of facing the Cowboys who play the 3-4. I like what Martz has done for Cutler early this season and the win at Dallas looks real considering the Cowboys went down to Houston and held the hot Texans to 13 points. Chicago only lost by 6 and 7 points last year, but this is an improved offense and defense. The defense last year held Rodgers under 200 yards passing in both games. I'm not sure that happens here tonight, but I still think the Bears win by a field goal at Soldier Field.

Titans +3 -110 (5.5 Dime POD) BETONLINE
I love the Titans to win out right here. The Giants are having locker room isuses with Jacobs and Rolle opening their mouth. They are also banged up and I expect Vince Young to have a huge bounce back type game. I thought last week was good for Vince Young and now he's poised to take over and lead his team. Young as a rookie threw for 249 yards and rushed for 69 yards vs. the Giants.. That was a better Giants defense and he didn't have the best running back in the game by his side in Chris Johnson. The Steelers contained Johnson last week but I expect a huge game from CJ here today and the Giants will have their own issue moving the ball as Ten is allowing just 85 passing yards per game. Ya that was against Pit/Oak, but still NFL offenses and I'm impressed. Giants Ahmad Bradshaw has talent, but is more of a screen/third down back in my opinion. TN is solid against the run too and they finished 09 winning 3 of their final 4 road games. They are 4-0 straight up and ATS in their last 4 vs. the Giants and 17-8 ATS in their last 25 as a dog

49ers +6 -120 buy 1/2 point (4.4 Dime POD); Under 44 (1.1 Bonus) lines@ BODOG
The public continues to pour in on the Saints. Is betting on Monday night chasing after Sunday

Redskins +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
I like this game as the REdskins continue to fly under the radar. This is a tough hard nosed team that has gotten better on offense and will show it this week. Houston opened up some holes in their secondary last week and Donovan will look 10 x better in his second game. Bottom line Foster won't run for 200+ yards against a 3-4 defense like WAshington with or without Haynesworth although he is probable. Houston just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a winning team. Big let down here after they had a huge win at home against the Colts. I don't see them being able to beat the Redskins on the road.

Chiefs +4.5 (4.4 Dime NFL POD)
Really like the Chiefs to surprise some people and it starts Monday night with a new stadium and the 2nd year for Matt Cassel which should be better than most expect. I really expect him to get it out to his play makers and expect him to get better with Weis back as his offensive coordinator as the Chiefs have the old duo from the Patriots days with Crennel at defense and Weis on the offensive end.

Chargers have several issues going into this game. One being that their strength of passing the ball will not be as good against the Chiefs for 4 different reasons. They will be without their best WR and starting LT for contract reasons as Marcus mcNeill and Vincent Jackson won

Bucs -2.5 @ 5DIMES (4.4 Dime POD)
The Browns can play defense that's for sure, but without a 100% Shaun Rogers they are a different team and I think the Bucs will be able to run the ball a bit. The Bucs had an improving defense down the stretch and with the addition of third overall pick Gerald McCoy they instantly got better and formed a unit that can now stop the run which is important against Cleveland. The Browns start Jake Delhomme who threw 13 interceptions in his first 6 games last year and had 2 against the Bucs where he was 9-17 for 65 yards. Luckily the running game got the Panthers a win that day, but as I said I think the Bucs are getting better by the day particularly against hte run.

On offense Cadillac Williams may finally be living up to his potential without injuries and Josh Freeman started to play well down the stretch a year ago. The public is on the Browns at 66% the line has moved from TB -1.5 to -3 at most books.

Texans +2 (2.2 Dime Oddsline Error)
The Colts have traditionally gotten off to a slow start. Just 14-12 over the Jaguars a year ago and 27-23 over the Dolphins in a game they should have lost. The Texans finally get the Colts early in the season and at home. The last 4 games in this series the Colts have won by just 21 points total. This is the lowest the spread has been and this is a talented Houston team that desperately wants to get started off at 1-0. I expect Schaub to have a dynamic game today and Arian Foster to be able to run a bit despite Bob Sanders being healthy.

Vikings +6 @ BODOG (3.3 Dime Play)
I really like the Vikings to pay their revenge here tonight. They did a good job against the Vikings and should be the team with the Super Bowl ring. They basically out gained the Vikings 2 to 1 and I think they will be able to move the ball effectively here tonight. Saints will have a lot on offense as they are tough to beat in their dome and you got the factor of home teams are 10-0 in their first game coming off a super bowl victory in the last ten years. However, I see this game living up to the hype and being a quality game and close. Vikings are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and had the 160 yards rushing in last years NFC Championship game.

Colts -5.5 (5.5 Dime Play)
Really I saw all I needed to this past weekend with the Colts and the Jets and the Vikings and the Saints. The Saints offense has continued to digress while Peyton and co just continue to become more and more dangerous with weapons all over the field named Garcon, Collie, Clark, and oh yeah Wayne. Don't forget to the dual half backs he's got in Addai and Brown.

I just think this is all Colts all the time as the NFC is just a year or two away from catching up with the overall talent of the AFC. Let's be honest Peyton dominated the #1 coverage unit in the Jets. Sure Darelle Revis locked down Reggie Wayne but it was Peyton Manning who was able to go all over the field to his other weapons to seal this game in the 2nd half. They even had the running game off the draw and stretch play working to perfection. I watched every single Jets game and I knew they had holes in their defense that did not show up on the stat sheet, but never did I think they would be threaded like a needle even by the best QB I have ever see play this game. Manning will make his legend a permanent one in Super Bowl 43!

Drew Brees and the Saints got extremely lucky and they should send my favorite QB, Brett Favre commission if they win. The Vikings dominated the Saints on both sides of the ball and Favre was great til late. The Saints however did one thing great they got pressure on Favre and hit him more then 15 times. However, you simply won't get to Peyton Manning. Maybe early like the Jets did but he figures it out and torches you after that when he spreads things out. The Saints defense is not near what the Jets are and Peyton is the best at preparing for defenses and I expect him to score more than 30 points here. On the other side I can't see Drew Brees and company score into the 30's because of the pressure he's going to get from the outside pass rushers in Mathis and Freeney. There is not a better tandom in the NFL and Ray Edwards and Jarred Allen just did an excellent job in the last game to get to Brees. In the end it was not enough and the Vikings can thank their three best players on offense for that in Favre, Harvin and Peterson. Turnovers via fumble and interception cost that team a trip to the Super Bowl. If you watched the game you know the Saints got lucky and do not belong here and Peyton will prove it to everyone.

Cardinals +7 (4.5 Dime NFL POD)
The Cardinals simply play inspirational football when they are under dogs. Now 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as an under dog. The Saints struggled the last quarter of the season and lost their last two games in the dome making them "beatable" The Cardinals have the ingredients to pull the upset. They have the excellent passing game that can keep pace with the Saints, and they have a pass rush with Docket as we saw last year in the playoffs that can get to Brees and really mess up what they will try to do.

Bottom line the best player in the game, the player that can take the game over is on the Cardinals. Larry Fitzgerald is a beast we saw it in the playoffs last year. The Saints do not have a guy that can cover this guy. The Saints are a beat up team in the secondary and pulling in journey men Mike McKenzie and Chris McCalister is not going to help. There is a reason this team was 24th in the league in pass defense. Kurt Warner will eat up this secondary in a very high scoring close game.

Packers -1.5 4.4 Dime NFL POD
I'm going with the Packers here. Aaron Rodgers is just too good and posses too many match up problems for the Cardinals with three excellent WR targets in Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, Gregg Jennings and then add in Jermichael Finley and Rodgers should have no problem throwing the ball. Well this pass rush of the Cardinals is excellent and as we know the Packers offensive line has been suspect. That is not entirely true. The Packers have given up 7 sacks in their last 6 games and most of that success has been due to the fact that T Chad Clifton has been healthy. He's healthy today and will play so I love the protection for Aaron Rodgers. The Cardinals are dangerous and this is no question going to be an entertaining game, but even if we use the trend from last week with the two teams that played yesterday won in week 17 and in the playoffs. If that means anything the Packers should have all the confidence in the world here on Sunday.

Eagles +4 (4.5 Dime NFL POD)
You know what many are reading into last weeks game so much because the Eagles have everything to play for. However, remember last year when the Cowboys had everything to play for at home against these Eagles and got embarassed 44-6. That was not so long ago was it. They had a major motivational advantage in that game after getting just shreaded 44-6 in a game they needed to go to the playoffs. I expect the tables to turn on them Saturday in a game they need to prove that last week meant something. The Eagles will come out and score early and steal all the momentum. Just a week or so ago the Eagles were hottest team going into the playoffs. That loss hurt a lot but Andy Reid knows how to come back from this he has done it before. It's almost as if he wanted this to happen. Each year the Eagles go into the playoffs as under dogs and each year they win some games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. In fact they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games too. It's almost as if they are where they want to be here and I don't think it's a bad place to be.

The Dog in this match up is 8-3 ATS in the last 11, and the Eagles are 7-0 in their last 7 as an underdog 3.5-10 points. Eagles often play better as a dog and even more so on the road as they are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 as a road dog. Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 in Dallas despite their loss of the last week of the season, but believe me Dallas had all the momentum. Bottom line this will be a tight game that will come down to a field goal either way.

Dolphins +3 +100 (4-Dime NFL POD)
The Steelers are not 3 points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field not this year not without Troy Polamolou. The Dolphins are still alive int he playoff picture believe it or not but many do not realize this and the public is pounding the Steelers because it's a must win for them, but in my opinion teams playing in this situation trying to cover the spread just don't do it. Just because you MUST win does not mean you will. You often see a team that has "nothing to play for," play their best games in these situations. I think you will see the Dolphins play that type of game. Their loss last week hurt to the Texans, but they know they are slightly alive for the playoffs, and that's enough to get a win today at home.

Texans +110 (4-Dime NFL POD)
Can't help but take the Texans in this situation. They are looking to play spoilers down the stretch so they have plenty to play for! The Dolphins have struggled against good passing teams. Actually with the exception of a last minute score against the Patriots they were 0-5 against good passing teams with losses to the Saints, Falcons, Colts and Chargers.

I think the Texans have the passing game to contend here as the Dolphins are #23 in passing defense. Just a little while ago we were talking about the Texans going to the playoffs and they want to prove that they should be the ones going to the playoffs.

Chargers +3.5 Buy 1/2 (-120) 4DIMES + Under 47.5 1 dime bonus
I can't help but bet on this kind of value with the Chargers. I don't buy into the this team has more motivation and it doesn't matter because the Chargers need one more win to clinch the 2nd seed anyway. The defense the Chargers have been playing with in the red zone is my reason here and although I can see the Titans winning I don't think it will happen. Although there are three wins during their streak against solid teams in Houston, Arizona, and Miami all by 3 points so if they do win this game I bet it's by 3 points so buy the points here! Titans are #31 in pass defense and things are just clicking for Phillip Rivers and company. However, I do like for the Titans to play well int he red zone too in what should not be a track meet! I think these totals are way too high at 47.5 and for that I am going under as a small bonus. Enjoy your Christmas!

Redskins +3 **4.4 Dime NFL POD
The home dog on Monday night worked well for us last week with the 49ers who in a divisional game were supposed to have really nothing to play for and dominated as a home dog. This Monday we go with the same strategy of taking a home dog on Monday night. Redskins whose offense has struggled this year leading to their 4-9 record. However, since Sherm Lewis took over the play calling it's been a difference maker and in their last 3 games they are 29.3 ppg. Some players have emerged including TE Fred Davis and WR Devin Thomas who have been the go to guys for Jason Campbell. Right now I just do not have any confidence in the Giants defense with players running wide open against them the last few weeks. This team lost badly to the Broncos and the Saints. While the Redskins beat the Broncos and had the Saints beat until some miracles went the Saints way. Redskins 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as an underdog while the Giants are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Monday night games. Really like for the Giants to lose this game and finally fall out of the playoff picture although they could still get in even with a loss because they have the tie breaker over the Cowboys if they ever end up with the same record. These Redskins want to play spoiler and they will do a good job of it tonight.

Titans -4.5 (4.4 Dime NFL POD)
Well I really like the Titans here on Sunday I don't think the Dolphins have the guy to contain Chris Johnson and with Vince Young coming back into the picture that means Kenny Britt will wake up and the offense too. Despite scoring 47 pts last week it was all Young early before he got hurt. The defense also playing well right now should be able to shut down an average Dolphins offense and knock them out of the playoffs.

49ers +4.5 as a 4 Dime NFL POD
I said to myself if the Niners got to +4 I'd take them. I was lucky enough to find it at +4.5 and if you can't get it at that you should buy the 1/2 point.

I knew the public would pound this number hard after they watched the Cards beat up on the Vikings big last week on Sunday night. Cardinals are 0-1 ATS in the following week after a Sunday Night game. They lost the next week at home to the Panthers 21-34. While the Cardinals should have plenty of motivation with revenge as they lost to the 49ers the 1st time they also were without Boldin and Breaston. I still think that the 49ers defense without Nate Clements will get enough preasure on Warner to keep the passing game in check. 49ers have 11 sacks in their last 2 games, and they had 3 sacks in the first match up between these two. 49ers at home on Monday Night are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 including 2 wins at home in their last two. This will be the game of the year for the 49ers in my opinion and they'd like to win it to stay in the playoff talks as long as possible.

As I mentioned Cardinals are coming off a huge win to the Vikings at home, and while they have been solid on the road at 5-1 they have not in their last two games winning by just 8 points to the leagues worst Rams and then losing @ the Titans. With the exception of 1 loss to the Atlanta Falcons every single one of the 49ers losses has come by 7 or fewer points with 4 of them coming within the number we need to cover here tonight. I think they have an excellent shot at covering this number as they played extremely well against quality teams, and against two similar type teams in the Texans and the Colts on the road they lost by a field goal and 4 points to the Colts. Why I bring that up is because both of those teams have excellent passing offenses and similar type defenses, although the Cardinals are much worse against the pass (31st) than the Texans (17th) and Colts (20th).

A lot has changed since Week #1 for both of these teams most notably the 49ers QB who has really benefited from the new spread offense out of the shot gun. I think he's going to surprise the Cardinals defense and Vernon Davis will have a big game. Just one team has given up more TD's (7) to Tight Ends this season and that team is the Lions. While the Cardinals have Boldin and Breaston in this game the 49ers also add a playmaker of their own in Michael Crabtree. Huge game at home for these Niners and as I already say they play up to the level of competition and it's because of this defense. They are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 as dogs and the dog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two.

Take Texans 4.5 Dime NFL POD
I'm going with the Texans here today. Matt Schaub and co. will eat up the Seattle defense traveling west. Seahawks are 25th in pass defense and despite really being out of the playoffs the Texans will continue to fight and play hard in my opinion. Seahawks have had a disappointing season and are 1-5 on the road. Both teams likely will have new coaches next year, but Houston has much more talent on both sides of the ball and still feels like they need to prove that they are better than their record indicates. I think they roll in this game and I'm not afraid to lay the 7 points.

Steelers -10 +103 4DIME NFL POD + 2 DIME BONUS 1H @ -6.5 (-105) Lines by 5DIMES
Listen it has been bad for the Steelers and their defense has not played well, especially without Troy Polamalu. However, I'll give this defense the edge over the Browns. Also coaching Tomlin over Magini on a short week.

In the last game the Steelers turned the ball over 4 times to the Browns and still got out with a win 27-14. They also had 543 total yards the 2nd most by any team in 2009. Browns defense has shown it can be good, but not here and not against this type of team and not with the key injuries along the defensive line. Shaun Rogers - gone for the season, and CJ Mosley gone for the season. Those are two key injuries that will give the Steelers an opportunity to run the ball here tonight and play their smash mouth football. Browns are 32nd last in the league in overall defense, 25th against the pass and 29th against the run they will continue to struggle and against a very hungry Steelers team. I don't normally take double digit favorites on the road in a division game but this game to me just screams blow out and it's mainly because of the key injuries up front for the Browns. Now Pit has not played good defense as of late but Brady Quinn has never seen this Steelers defense before even witout Polamalu this team is above average and they have to have a chip on their shoulder after being called out by their coach this week and the media saying that they can't play without Polamalu.

Expect an aggresive attack at the line from Pit D, a defense that's ranked #1 against the run still but 17th in passing. I'm not confident Brady Quinn can get his team going and although he has thrown 7 TD to 0 INT's in his last three games that was against the Chargers suspect pass D where all his yards came in the 4th quarter and then most of them came against the bad Lions. Cleveland was down 27-3 to start the fourth quarter against the Chargers on Sunday and had scored just 6 points in their last 11 quarters at home. Then the Chargers defense relaxed and gave up two TD's. Because of that we sit here with a some what of a gift from the oddsmakers because that along with the Steelers 4th quarter collapsed moved this line by 3+ points in my opinion. If the Steelers don't collapse and the Chargers don't collapse in the 4th we likely have a 14 point or more spread. The Steelers have lost their last three games after leading the game after the third quarter. Meaning they will be extremely focused with their playoff hopes on the line here tonight.

I really look for the Steelers to open it up on offense being able to run the ball all night and in the predicted weather we are hearing that will be a good thing as they are #1 against the run and I don't see the inexperienced running backs of Cleveland to have a chance to run the ball against the #1 run defense. Steelers will be + in TO margin this time around and win by more than 13.

Take Packers -3 **4-Dime NFL POD
I have to be honest my other NFL picks have been garbage actually anything but my POD's have been garbage lately. Has to do with bad luck in some cases, but overall the POD's have been hitting and that is what I'm going to concentrate on to close out the season.

Not my normal 4.5 NFL POD, but tonight I thought there was value on both sides here. However, then I saw the Packers have some extra time off after Thanksgiving Day, while the Ravens just fought off an emotional win against the Steelers. It was a hard hitting game and it came at a price as their best blitzer Terrel Suggs is now hurt and won't play tonight. That's a big deal considering the Packers lead the league in sacks given up. Packers will have a huge advantage in the mid-range passes as Fabian Washington also out and his replacement Bush should be picked on all night. Ravens are #21 in sack % and with their best out tonight I'd say the Packers should be fine.

Common sense would tell most people that the Ravens have the better defense, but on the contrary the Packers at home are giving up just 19.2 pts and 289.5 yards per game, while the Ravens on the road are giving up 20.6 pts and 349.6 yards. Ravens are beatable through the air and the packers have a top flight passing offense with weapons all over the field in Driver/Jennings/Nelson and TE weapons too. If Baltiomore wants to come with the blitz that's fine as backup RB Brandon Jackson has seen a lot of action on the HB screen. So Baltimore's defense has been playing better recently giving up 17 or fewer points in 5 stratight games well if we look at their last three which consisted of Pit, Indy, and Cleveland they faced an average pass offense 18th, and rushing offense 23rd. Those are well below GB's ranks and on the other side GB's defense has been tested more from a statistical perspective facing 16th ranked passing offense and 20th ranked running offense, and the numbers come out identical in terms of yards allowed. Baltimore allowed 277 and Green Bay allowed 278. The biggest difference was GB giving up just 67.7 yards rushing while Baltimore gave up 105 which is above their season average.

So will we have a close game here tonight? Yes of course, but even with the field goal as a favorite on Monday Night I feel confident backing the Packers with the extra rest and momentum of playing their best football of the season against a Ravens team that continues to struggle to find consistent play. Their defense will be tested and the offense should be forced into some turnovers themselves as Charles Woodson has become a candidate for defensive player of the year.

Take Redskins +10 4.5 Dime NFL POD
I don't know if any one has been paying attention but the Redksins are and have been playing some good ball. Double Digit home dogs today against the best in the NFC off an emotional win against Patriots on Monday. I'll take the Redskins they have the defense to lose within 10 points in my opinion and most likely will.

Take jets -3 (4.5 Dime NFL POD)
I'm going with the Jets for many reasons here. Yes, the Bills have played better since Juron was fired and the offense is clicking a bit, but let's take note that they faced the Jaguars 26th pass defense and the Dolphins 24th. T.O. will be shut down by the leagues best corner in Darrel Revis and the Jets 2nd ranked pass defense. The defense that had a couple of bad games showed why they were picked to be one of the best defenses earlier in the season last week. They finally forced some turnovers and while Fitzpatrick may be smart as he graduated from Harvard I think the Jets may confuse him this week. Jets are a better team with Kerry Rhodes not starting and that's exactly what will be the case again on Thursday. Although Rhodes got two INTs last week it was more due to bad throws that ended up in his lap. Rhodes the former pro bowl player has been benched by Rex Ryan and he'll likely play out of nickel and dime situations. Erik Smith is the better option in stopping the run something they'll have to do against a very physical Fred Jackson.

Bottom line both teams need this game and it's a big advantage and a nice break for the Jets that this game will be played in Canada. Buffalo is one of the tougher places to play inside the AFC East, but Canada won't be an advantage. Look for the Jets running game to click here against the Bills as they rushed for 318 yards in week 6 behind 210 from Thomas Jones. OC of the Jets Brian Shottenheimer finally got the message "RUN THE BALL" and protect your QB. They did that a week ago and they'll do more of it this week with a couple shots down the field to Edwards or Keller. That will be enough to keep the ground moving and I think the Jets D shuts down the Bills. It took the Jets worse game of the year to fall by 3 points the last time these faced in OT. There were 7 turnovers 6 interceptions and countless penalties that cost this team the game late. That won't happen again and Rex Ryan being the emotional guy he is will have this team ready for revenge after losing to this team the last time.