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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-21-14	Kansas State v. Long Beach State +2	Top	60-69	Win	100	10 h 37 m	Show
15* graded play on the Long Beach State as they take on Kansas State in NCAA Men's Basketball action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that LBS will win this game by 3 or more points. The following game situations match the projections I see for this game. K-State is just 24-70 ATS (-53.0 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997. LBS is a solid money making 87-40 ATS (+43.0 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997. LBS is a solid shooting team. Although just a few games have been played they are averaging 82 PPG good for 29th best in the nation. Even better is their 18th best ranking with a 55% shooting percentage. How, K-State scores 90 PPG, but this has been against a vastly weaker schedule than that faced by LBS. Again, just two games but the opponents were Southern Utah and Missouri-KC. By comparison, LBS has played three games against BYU, San Francisco State, and Xavier. Further, K-State coach Weber is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better in all games he has coached since 1997. I like LBS to win this by three or more points.
11-19-14	UC-Irvine +15 v. Arizona	Top	54-71	Loss	-105	5 h 57 m	Show
25* graded play on UC-Irvine as they take on Arizona in College basketball action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UC-Irvine will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. The beginning of the season sees many teams working thorugh team transitions and growing pains. I always a like a solid free throw shooting team. UC-Irvine is on a nice 7-0 ATS tear when they have hit 73 to 80% of their free throws in games played over the three seasons. Arizona is ranked No.2 in the nation, but I really like how the UC-Irvine defense matches up with them. Further, UC-Irvine returns four starters and 2 key-reserve players from their 23-win season that won the Big West regular season title. They were a team that I felt definitely should have gotten into the NCAA TOurnament. They did lose the Conference Titan and auto-bid to a losing record, BUT very red hot Cal Poly Slo team. Irvine's 7-foot-6 sophomore Mamadou Ndiaye will present a problem for the Wildcats in the post. I also see Irvine having a decided edge in rebounding which directly minimizes the Arizona multi-shot possessions. Take UC-Irvine
11-18-14	Manhattan +9 v. Massachusetts	Top	68-77	Push	0	1 h 9 m	Show
15* graded play on Manhattan as they take on UMASS in NCAAM Hoops action set to start at 11:00 AM ET. I fully expect Manhattan to stay within seven points and possibly win the game. Both teams return 2 starters from last year's editions, so both will have some team chemistry work ahead of them. The Jaspers have a player to watch in this game and one that I believe will dominate the UMASS defense. Junior forward Shane Richards scored 17 in a loss to Florida State. He is 6-5 and 185 pounds and what he lacks in physical size, he more than makes up with speed and elite quickness. He is complimented by a senior leader in 6-6 205 lb forward Emmy Adujar. Manhattan will look to run fast break on every missed UMASS shot given their advantages over UMASS defenders in the open court. Even with the fast break and higher number of possessions I don't see Manhattan having more than 17 turnovers. In past games, Manhattan is a solid 18-5 against the money line (+12.7 Units) when they commit 14 to 18 turnovers in a game over the last three seasons. Take Manhattan.
11-15-14	Dartmouth +6.5 v. Saint Bonaventure	Top	57-77	Loss	-105	9 h 51 m	Show
25* graded play on Dartmouth as they take on St. Bonaventure in season opener for both teams set to to tip at 7:00 PM ET. Dartmouth HC Paul Cormier has FIVE returning starters and this experience and chemistry is a very powerful weapon when facing teams that are essentially rebuilding. St. Bonaventure has just two returning starters and will need a month of games to get into a good team flow at both ends of the court. Cormier was brought in to turn this program around. They took a major step forward last season by simply finishing out of the Ivy cellar for the first time since 2009. Their team leader starts with Junior Gabas Maidunas, who is a tremendous rebounding machine. Last season he got 27% of all available defensive rebounds, which is a very high percentage for any player to attain. This will limit all opponents multi-shot possessions, which is a dominant factor in pulling off upset wins. Another guard to watch is 5-11 sophomore Alex Mitola, who is extremely quick and has a great shot from the perimeter. He is the 'spark plug' for the offense. I believe the Dartmouth program will take another step forward this season and it will start tonight. The following game situations reflect the levels of performance I see for this game. Dartmouth is 35-13 ATS when they score 67 to 71 points in games played since 1997; 45-20 ATS when they have hit 40 to 46% of their shot attempts in games played since 1997. Take Dartmouth.
04-07-14	Kentucky v. Connecticut UNDER 135.5	Top	54-60	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
10* graded play 'UNDER' in the NCAA Tournament Final featuring Kentucky versus UCONN. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 135 points will be scored in this game. I also like Kentucky as a 5* graded play and believe their freshman starters will rise to an even higher level at both ends of the court. The 'one and done' theme in NCAA hoops is a concern for the health of College Basketball programs and the individual players, whose lives are changed dramatically and suddenly. It certainly is a dream to just imagine what this Kentucky group would be like in 3 years? Reality is that we will never see that unfortunately and who can blame the players when so much money is at stake by entering the NBA. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-37 mark for 66.1% winners since 1997. Play 'Under' with neutral court teams against the total (CONNECTICUT) after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. UCONN is a perfect 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) when facing solid rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games this season. Kentucky is a solid 31-14 UNDER (+15.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons; 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists this season; 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season; UCONN is a perfect 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season; 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Ollie is a strong Ollie is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists as the coach of UCONN. Based on the matchups and the SIM projections, this game will be very physical and grinding. I also believe the refs will allow the players to dictate the pace and intensity and not call the 'ticky-tack' type of fouls. There will be fast break scores of course, but both teams will be focused on the defensive end first. Take the 'UNDER'
04-05-14	Connecticut v. Florida -6	Top	63-53	Loss	-115	7 h 49 m	Show
10* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the UCONN Huskies in Final Four action set to tip at 6:09 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game by 8 or more points. The research and matchups make for a double digit Florida victory very likely. UCONN has been on one incredible roll, but now face the best defense in the country and that will be the dominant reason Florida wins this game easily. Napier has been fantastic to this point leading UCONN. However, now he will be matched against a very good man defender in Florida's Wilbekin. UCONN is playing at their peak potential and the Florida defense has humbled many high-flying teams during their 30-game win streak. The last time Florida lost was at UCONN, who needed a buzzer neater against a vastly under manned Florida team. UCONN runs an excellent pick-and-roll with Napier, but Florida has improved greatly defending this scheme. I mentioned Wilbekin being the lock-down defender, but I also believe that HC Donovan will use creative mtachups with longer taller players too to disrupt the flow of the UCONN offense running through Napier. Gators are a solid 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game this season and this matches the SIM projections. If you like money line play, then you will love the fact that Florida is a near-perfect 14-1 against the money line (+13.8 Units) when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game this season. Gators are a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when facing very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season. UCONN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Take Florida.
04-03-14	Yale +8 v. Murray State	Top	57-65	Push	0	5 h 53 m	Show
10* graded play on Yale as they take on Murray State in the College Insider Tournament Championship game set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Yale will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the Championship. Given this strong projection I will be making this a combination wager comprised of a 10* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line for a total risk of 12* units. The pace of play is certainly in favor of Yale as the SIM projects that they will have 54 to 62 shot attempts. In past games, Yale is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Yale is also a solid free throw shooting team and are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game this season. Murray State is just 11-31 ATS (-23.1 Units) in home games after 4 or more consecutive wins since 1997. Yale HC Jones is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers. Take Yale.
03-30-14	Kentucky -2.5 v. Michigan	Top	75-72	Win	100	7 h 60 m	Show
10* graded play on Kentucky as they take on Michigan in the Midwest Region Final set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kentucky will win this game by five or more points. Michigan did a solid job defending the paint and contained Jarnell Stokes to 11 points and 6 boards. Forward Morgan was a major reason in containing Stokes, but not his job becomes significantly tougher with Randal and his athletic teammates. I also think that Kentucky will have a tremendous advantage in transition off missed Michigan shots. Michigan has a below average transition defense and Kentucky has the speed to get the fast break in full gear. Michigan will have to get hot from the 3-point arc like they did in the win over Tennessee. However, we all saw what happened when Michigan failed to convert perimeter shots and Tennessee came roaring back. The following game situations are based on the SIM projections. Kentucky is a rock solid 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game this season; 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. As you already know, I see Kentucky matching and exceeding this shooting percentage in large part due to the fast break ending in layups and dunks. Take Kentucky.
03-29-14	Dayton v. Florida -10	Top	52-62	Push	0	8 h 51 m	Show
10* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the Dayton Flyers in the South Region Final set to start at 6:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game by at least 11 points. We have seen and enjoyed many dramatic games, but my research clearly shows this may be a complete Florida blowout win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1997. Play on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (FLORIDA) and is an average offensive team scoring 67 to 74 PPG and is facing an average defensive team allowing 67 to 74 PPG after 15+ games and after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more. SIM also projects that Florida will make 46 to 53% of their shot attempts. In past games, Florida is a very strong 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Dayton simply does not match up well against a team like Florida noting they are just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 3 seasons. The Florida defense will be the dominant difference in this matchup. Gators rank 2nd in scoring defense, 12th in opponent assists allowed, 20th in opponent rebounds allowed and 13th in opponent assists-to-turnover ratio. By comparison, Dayton ranks 87th in scoring defense, 10th in opponent assist allowed, and 105th in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. The Gators have been to the Regional final and lost the past three years. The Gators have leadership from Seniors, who have experienced those defeats and know this is an opportunity to break through to the next level- plus it is their last chance. This is the Gators turn and I strongly believe they will dominate this game from start to finish with no letups. Take Florida.
03-28-14	Tennessee +3.5 v. Michigan	Top	71-73	Win	100	3 h 54 m	Show
10* graded play on the Tennessee Volunteers as they take on Michigan in the Midwest Regional semifinal set to start at 7:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game. Many of you are quite familiar with how I play these live dogs with the use a combination wager. The public is slamming wagers on Michigan so far today and nearly 80% of all wagers placed are now on Michigan. This has served to the line to 3 1/2 points. I can't rule out the 4 point line starting to appear as the 'smart' money may start buying back their Michigan -2 wagers made earlier in the week. This one point line movement today does give us an added dimension to this wager. I will place a 7.5* amount using the line and then add a 4* amount using the money line at no less than +140 for a total of 11.5* units of risk. This combination maximizes the total rate of return (ROI) based on the SIM projections and probabilities. Tennessee is playing perhaps the best defense of any team left in the Tournament. They rebound the ball extremely well and will limit Michigan's multi-shot possessions. The following game situations match the projections produced by the SIM. Vols are a perfect 13-0 ATS (+13.0 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game this season; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game over the last 3 seasons. Wolverines are a money burning 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997. Vols head coach Martin is a solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games. Take Tennessee.
03-27-14	UCLA +5 v. Florida	Top	68-79	Loss	-105	10 h 10 m	Show
10* graded play on UCLA as they take on the Florida Gators in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at advancing to the Regional Final. Free throw shooting will be a major factor in this game and it certainly favors UCLA. The Bruins rank 23rd in the nation hitting 75% of their free throws. Florida shoots miserable from the charity stripe ranking 291st hitting just 65% of those shots. Moreover, UCLA gets to the line more than the Gators. I believe that UCLA will have 10+ more made free throws than the Gators. UCLA ranks 8th in scoring offense and they have the speed and quickness to neutralize the second best scoring defense tonight. Gators offense is just not good and largely inconsistent. I fully expect UCLA to look to run and score fast break point sin transition of missed Gator shots. I see this matchup where the UCLA offense will simply wear down the Gator defense over the course of the game. Moreover, UCLA is one of the best ranking defensive rebounding teams. This presence will limit Florida's multi shot possessions and this too, will be a dominant theme to UCLA winning this game. UCLA is a rock solid 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) facing solid teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games this season. Take UCLA.
03-26-14	California v. SMU -8	Top	65-67	Loss	-106	10 h 47 m	Show
10* graded play on SMU as they take on California in the NIT quarterfinals set to tip at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will win this game by at least 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-14 ATS mark for 71.4% winners since 2008. Play on any team (SMU) after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games and is in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The SIM produces many matchup projections and performance ranges. One is that SMU will shoot 46 to 53% from the field. In past games, Cal is just 23-47 ATS (-28.7 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997. SMU is a solid money making 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. CAL is a strong ball-handling team that ranks 25th in the nation getting 25 assist per game, and 10th posting a 1.494 assist-turnover ration. They rank 24th with 10.2 turnovers per game. However, SMU has done very well against teams with this characteristic noting they are 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when facing solid ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Take the Mustangs.
03-26-14	Louisiana Tech +135 v. Florida State	Top	75-78	Loss	-100	7 h 44 m	Show
10* graded play on Louisiana Tech as they take on Florida State in the NIT quarterfinals set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that LT will win this game. For me to be interested in making this a combo bet, I would like to see this line move to 3 1/2. The ML then would be at least +145 and then I would place a combination wager comprised of an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line. If the line remains at 2 1/2 or even moves lower, then simply make this a 10* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?68-33 ATS mark for 67.3% winners since 1997. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA ST) in a game involving two good defensive teams allowing between 63 and 67 PPG and after a combined score of 155 points or more. SIM projects that LT will attempt 54 to 62 shots; will have 3 to 7 fewer turnovers; and will score 67 to 74 points. LT is a solid 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game this season; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games when they commit 3 to 7 fewer turnovers than their opponents over the last 2 seasons; 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Take Louisiana Tech.
03-25-14	Belmont v. Clemson -7	Top	68-73	Loss	-101	8 h 32 m	Show
10* graded play on the Clemson as they take on Belmont in the NIT quarterfinals set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by double digits. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-14 ATS for a 74% mark since 1997. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEMSON) team from a major division 1-A conference and is now facing a team from a mid-major division 1-A conference and is off 2 or more consecutive home wins. Of the many SIM projections supporting Clemson in this game, one truly stick out. SIM projects that Clemson will score 67 to 74 points. In past games, the Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game this season. The matchups favor Clemson as well noting that Belmont is just 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games facing teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game since 1997; Clemson is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when facing solid 3 point shooting teams making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Clemson has play a vastly superior strength of schedule and it is very difficult for these mid-tier NIT Tournament teams to step up and match the athleticism of a major conference team. The biggest matchup advantage for Clemson is rebounding where I strongly believe they will have a 10+ board edge in total rebounds. This serves to minimize Belmont's multi shot possessions and forces them to shoot significantly above their season averages just to stay close on the scoreboard. Take Clemson.
03-24-14	Nebraska-Omaha +6.5 v. Murray State	Top	62-86	Loss	-106	9 h 52 m	Show
10* graded play on Nebraska-Omaha as they take on Murray State in the Second Round of the College Insiders tournament set to start at 3:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that NO will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at earning an upset win. Given this favorable projection, I will be making a combination wager comprised of an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line. The following game situations match the projections produced by the SIM. NO is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game this season; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. Further, they are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games this season. This will be a high scoring fast paced game and this style of game certainly favors NO. They rank 17th in the nation in scoring offense, 39th in assists per game, and solid 83rd posting a 1.171 assist-to-turnover ration. Most important is that they have accomplished this all with nearly the exact same strength of schedule as Murray State. So, I think the public is getting far too much credit to the better known name in Murray State. Take Nebraska-Omaha.
03-23-14	Stephen Austin v. UCLA -8.5	Top	60-77	Win	100	8 h 20 m	Show
10* graded play on UCLA as they take on SAF Austin in the Third Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by 10 or more points. I see this game as a complete mismatch at both ends of the court. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?44-15 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2008. Play on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (UCLA) that are explosive offensive team scoring >=76 PPG and is now facing a solid offensive team scoring between 74 and 76 PPG and after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games. The following game situations match the projections produced by the SIM. Note that UCLA is a solid 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 60-38 ATS (+18.2 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game since 1997. the matchup situations favor UCLA noting they are a stout 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season; 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) facing solid teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season; 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) facing solid teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season; 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season. Strength of schedule (SOS) is a significant factor in Tournament games simply because a team from a weaker conference is a huge disadvantage when stepping up in competition to a team with physicality and quickness that they have yet to see during the season. Further UCLA has turned up the defensive presence holding Tulsa to just 37% shooting. UCLA is 6-1 ATS following a game where they held an opponent to less than 38% shooting this season. Take UCLA.
03-23-14	Kentucky +5 v. Wichita State	Top	78-76	Win	100	5 h 56 m	Show
10* graded play on Kentucky as they take on Wichita State in the Third Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 2:45 PM ET. I am playing this as a combination wager consisting of an 8.5* play on the line and a 1.5* play using the money line. The simulator shows a high probability that Kentucky will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at earning their way to the Sweet-16 Round. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 21-15 mark using the MONEY LINE and has made a whopping 25 units/unit wagered since 2008. The average play has been a +190 DOG and underscore the power of this rare system. Play against neutral court teams (WICHITA ST) after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games an dis a top level team winning 80% or more of their games on the season. I'd be lying if my heart didn't tell you I'd love to see Wichita State got the distance undefeated. However, the reality right now, is that this will be the stiffest opponent they have faced all season and arguably a major step up in speed and athleticism. Calipari is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when facing very good defensive teams posting a shooting percentage defense of <=39% after 15+ games in all games he has coached since 1997. Kentucky guard Andrew Harrison is listed as probable for this game after suffering an elbow injury in the last game. The major problem for Wichita State is how are they going to defend the boards when Kentucky is on offense. Kentucky ranks 4th in the nation getting 13.2 offensive boards per game and 4th getting 41.1 total boards per game. They rank best posting a 41.8% percentage of offensive boards to total boards. This is certainly where the SOS is a highly negative factor for Wichita State simply because they have not played against a team with this much talent. Kentucky is extremely 'long' and they rank 6th getting 6.3 blocks per game. Of course the negative is the high number of freshman starters and bench players on the Kentucky squad. However, in recent games, the intensity has picked up at both ends of the court as the importance of each game rises. This team lost by 1 point to Florida in the SEC Championship game. Take Kentucky.
03-22-14	Harvard +7.5 v. Michigan State	Top	73-80	Win	100	9 h 36 m	Show
10* graded play on Harvard as they take on Michigan State in NCAA Round 3 Tournament action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Harvard will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and does have a solid shot to advance to the Sweet 16 Round. Obviously, the large majority of brackets would be completely destroyed should MSU lose this game. The betting public is enamored with the Spartans and the betting flows on this game are overwhelmingly on MSU. The flows show that close to 80% of all best on this game are on MSU. This is a contrarian indicator when the public shows this type of irrational exuberance. The following game situations match the projections produced by the SIM. Haravrd is a rock solid 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game this season; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game this season; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they grab 8 or less offensive rebounds in a game this season; 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in slower paced games where they attempt 46 to 53 shots over the last 3 seasons. Supporting the upset bid is the fact that 11-1 against the money line (+13.6 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons. Crimson is also a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Last year Harvard won the first Tournament game in 102 years, but then got thumped by Arizona. HC Amaker is recruiting well and using 'making history' a strong theme at Harvard. They took step one last season and now I strongly believe they are about to take the next one by winning two Tournament games and reaching the Sweet 16. Another factor is that the Ancient Eight play their conference games Friday and Saturday nights to avoid missing class time. This experience of playing on back-to-back nights certainly gives Harvard an edge. Take Harvard.
03-22-14	North Dakota State v. San Diego State UNDER 127	Top	44-63	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
10* graded play on 'UNDER' the posted total in the San Diego State-North Dakota State matchup set to tip at 6:10 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 120 points will be scored in this game. Most lines are north of 125 listed at 126 1/2 at most books. Both teams will focus on the defensive end and solid execution on the offensive end. I don't see fast break in transition of missed shots being a matchup advantage for either team. There will be a high number of one-and-done possessions by both teams and methodical ball movement on the offensive end. SDST is a solid 17-7 UNDER (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team winning > 80% of their games after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons; 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) facing low pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.; 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season; 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) when facing solid ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Moreover, SDST is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this season; 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. NDST may try and force the tempo early in the game, but is a huge risk should they fail to covert scoring opportunities. This would allow SDST to establish a sizable lead and then the pace of play will slow even more as SDST looks to shorten the game. Take the 'UNDER'
03-22-14	St. Louis +9.5 v. Louisville	Top	51-66	Loss	-105	4 h 18 m	Show
10* graded play on St. Louis as they take on Louisville in the third round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 2:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that STL will lose this game by fewer than five points. As many of you know I had Mercer as my Round 2 Game of the Year and had also recommended a 1* play using the money line. The same applies here as well. So, if you can get a money line on this game add a 1* amount to the 10* play using the line. The SIM shows projections that match the following game situations supporting an easy cover by the Bilikins. STL is a solid 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in slower paced games where they attempt 46 to 53 shots over the last 3 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 3 seasons; 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when they attempt 19 to 24 free throws in a game over the last 3 seasons. The team matchups also support STL noting they are 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when facing solid shooting teams making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when facing top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997. Here are some money line results supporting the projections from the SIM. STL is a resounding 6-1 against the money line (+5.4 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 16-3 against the money line (+12.3 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. The biggest matchup I see favoring the Bilikins is the lack of any valid ball movement by Louisville. The Cardinal ranks 117th posting a 0.541 assist-to-FG made ratio and clearly reflects the lack of solid ball movement in the half court sets. St. Louis is excellent at defending the paint and the perimeter where they rank 7th allowing just 29% 3-point shooting. The lack of quick crisp Cardinal ball movement, will allow the STL defense to anticipate for freely and fill passing lanes and the arc. Take St. Louis.
03-21-14	Stanford +3.5 v. New Mexico	Top	58-53	Win	100	2 h 11 m	Show
10* graded play on Stanford as they take on New Mexico in the second round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 1:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game. The money line is just not quite high enough to warrant a combination wager. If, the line would move to 3 1/2, the money line would be attractively priced. At tis level, I would encourage you to play an 8* amount on the line and a 2* amount on the money line. For now, with the line at 2 1/2, simply play it as a straight 10* play using the line. The following are just a few of the supporting cast of game situations as projected by the SIM. Stanford is a rock solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game this season; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game this season; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game this season. The matchup situations of these tow teams favor Stanford as well. Stanford is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus bad pressure defensive teams forcing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons; 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Take Stanford.
03-21-14	Mercer +13.5 v. Duke	Top	78-71	Win	100	2 h 33 m	Show
10* graded play on Mercer as they take on Duke in Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 12:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Mercer will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and could very well push Duke to the final buzzer. If you can get a money line, I would suggest adding a 1* amount to the 10* play using the line. I love dogs, generally, in the March Madness games, but especially so when they are the better rebounding team. Mercer can match Duke on offense and has the defense to make Duke a one-dimensional Parker attack. Parker is a great player and he may end up being the first pick in the NBA draft, but he cannot do this alone. Mercer ranks 77th in the nation getting 36.4 rebounds per game as compared to Duke ranking 155th getting 34.9 boards per game. Granted Duke has played a tougher schedule, BUT it does not take away from the fact that mercer has the quickness and athleticism to out rebound Duke. Moreover, Mercer is an excellent ball handling and passing team and rank 14th getting 15.6 assists per game. Hoffman is a solid Hoffman is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog as the coach of Mercer. Krzyzewski is 47-75 ATS (-35.5 Units) in March games as the coach of Duke. Better ball handling and better rebounding could spell a historic upset here in Round 2. Take Mercer.
03-20-14	New Mexico State v. San Diego State -7	Top	69-73	Loss	-106	12 h 36 m	Show
10* graded play on San Diego State as they take on New Mexico State in Round One of the NCAA Tournament set to tip at 9:55 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SDST will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?42-15 ATS mark for 74% winners since 1997. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW MEXICO ST) after 4 or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament. I like this system as it reflects the inflation of the betting line with a 'Cinderella' type aura surrounding them. So, is this case, we are getting a real cheap price to play on SDST. Here are a few of the supporting game situations fro the SIM. NMST is just 24-50 ATS (-31.0 Units) when they score 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997; SDST is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when they score 67 to 74 points in a game this season. Take San Diego State.
03-20-14	Manhattan +17 v. Louisville	Top	64-71	Win	100	11 h 57 m	Show
10* graded play on Manhattan as they take on Louisville in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:50 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Manhattan will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. The upset potential is low, of course, but at the same time, this is the time where the unexpected can occur - even on a winning bet like this. So, if you are able to get a money line for this play on Manhattan, simply add no more than a 1* amount to the 10* play using the line. The Sim has many different game projections for each team and in this case the large majority of them support Manhattan. Here are a few. Manhattan is a solid 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in slower paced games where they attempt 46 to 53 shots over the last 3 seasons; 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they commit 3 to 7 more turnovers than their opponents over the last 2 seasons; 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons; 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they commit 14 to 18 turnovers in a game over the last 3 seasons. The matchups also favor Manhattan to cover ATS noting they are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games facing solid ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Manhattan.
03-20-14	Delaware +14.5 v. Michigan State	Top	78-93	Loss	-110	6 h 36 m	Show
10* graded play on Delaware as they take on Michigan State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament set to tip at 4:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Delaware will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. I truly believe this will be a single digit game. Have to admit as well, that when I saw this play pop up from the SIm projections report, I immediately liked it as the public is just all over MSU. Now, the public is not always wrong, but when betting flows exceed 78%, it is certainly a red flag especially when the SIM is on the other side. I had also written an article about not putting MSU past the round of 16 given the public's overwhelming opinion that they are the team to beat. I know they are healthy, but I just don
03-19-14	Iowa -2 v. Tennessee	Top	65-78	Loss	-105	9 h 33 m	Show
10* graded play on Iowa as they take on Tennessee in the first round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:10 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa will win this game by more than 5 points. Two months ago, this same Iowa team was ranked 10th in the nation. Of significant note is the fact that HC McCaffery's 13-year old son is having surgery to remove a thyroid tumor this morning. I mention this only to bring light to what the Iowa team is going through and what they are facing. It is certainly not an reason whatsoever for the play. McCaffery is flying in and out of Dayton to be with his son and if all goes well, will be back with his team prior to the pregame meal. I don't particularly like making plays where there is life story surrounding it, but this Iowa team is vastly talented and have significant advantages against the Volunteers. Tennessee has played strong team basketball down the stretch, but the loss to Florida took a look of air out of their sales. During Iowa's slide, it ahs been their second half defense that has been very poor. However, as great a defensive team as Tennessee is, their offensive presence is equally poor. Iowa has the 8th best scoring offense in the nation. Their ability to move the ball crisply and accurately will loosen up the Tennessee defense. In turn, I just don't see Tennessee with enough firepower to stay instep with Iowa. Furthermore, McCaffery has had great moments here in Dayton when coaching Sienna. That team defeated Ohio State in double OT in 2009. So, although Iowa has no one with NCAA experience, their leader has a ton. Take Iowa.
03-19-14	Illinois v. Boston U. +3	Top	66-62	Loss	-110	10 h 27 m	Show
10* graded play on Boston University as they take on Illinois in the first round of the NIT set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BU will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?79-38 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1997. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON U) off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite and is a solid team winning 60% to 80% of their games and is now playing a team with a winning record. 58% of the winning plays covered by at least 7 points. The SIM projects that BU will make 38 to 45% of their 3-point shots and will score 67 to 74 points. In past games, Illinois is just 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 3 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. BU is a rock solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997. Moreover, Illinois is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when facing teams attempting <=18 free throws/game after 15+ games have been played spanning the last 3 seasons.Take Boston University.
03-18-14	Columbia +3.5 v. Valparaiso	Top	58-56	Win	100	6 h 16 m	Show
10* graded play on Columbia as they take on Valparaiso in the College Insiders First Round Tournament action. The simulator shows a high probability that Columbia will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning this game. Given this favorable projection, I will make this a combination wager using an 8* amount on the line and a 2* amount using the money line. I had two winning upset alerts Monday with the Denver Nuggets winning by 10 over the Clippers and Holy Cross defeating Brown. Both had the combination wagers that maximize the total rate of return on the wager (investment). Over the course of the season, these types of combination wagers add a significant amount to my bottom line and will for yours too. Sim shows projections calling for Columbia to hit 31 to 37% of their shots from beyond the arc; will make better than 79% of their free throws; will score 67 to 74 points; will commit 10 to 13 turnovers. In past games, Columbia is a rock solid money making 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997; 62-26 ATS (+33.4 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game since 1997; 41-15 ATS (+24.5 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997; 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game since 1997. Take Columbia.
03-17-14	Holy Cross +3 v. Brown	Top	68-65	Win	100	5 h 7 m	Show
10* graded play on Holy Cross as they take on Brown University in the first Round of the College Insiders Tournament set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Holy Cross will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-31 ATS for 68% winners since 1997. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROWN) in a game involving two average shooting teams making 42.5 to 45% of their shot attempts and after 15+ games and after a game where a team made 50% of their 3 point shots or better. Brown is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Brown has lost three straight games and are off a 98-93 loss to Harvard covering as 10 point dogs. Holy Cross was a solid 12-6 in Patriots Conference action, which is vastly tougher than the Ancient Eight where Brown went an even 7-7. This game is going to grind and the more it grinds, the more it favors the Holy Cross team, that ranks 56th in scoring defense. Take Holy Cross.
03-16-14	St. Joseph's +5 v. VCU	Top	65-61	Win	100	2 h 38 m	Show
10* graded play on St. Josephs as they take on VCU in the Atlantic Ten Tournament Championship game set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that St. Josephs will cover and can win this game. One of the many projections by the SIM shows that St. Josephs will have a strong game rebounding the ball. They are projected to get 40 to 44 total boards. In past games, they are a rock solid 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons. The following are SU situations under scoring the upset potential that St. Josephs will have in this matchup. St. Josephs is 11-2 against the money line (+9.4 Units) in slower paced games where they attempt 46 to 53 shots this season; 7-1 against the money line (+6.7 Units) when they force 10 to 13 turnovers in a game this season; 14-6 against the money line (+8.2 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. The key here for St. Josephs is rebounding and I do see them minimizing VCU offensive boards and subsequent multi-shot possessions. This is a dominant factor in any upset win and I do believe that St. Josephs will get the job done well. Take St. Josephs.
03-15-14	Cal Poly SLO -2.5 v. CS-Northridge	Top	61-59	Loss	-114	10 h 5 m	Show
10* graded play on Cal Poly Slo as they take on CS-Northridge in the Big West Conference Championship game set to start at 10:30 PM ET. Looks like a losing record team is going to make the Big Dance, but they have certainly earned that right. The simulator shows a high probability that Cal Poly Slo will win this game by 5 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 1997. Play on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (CAL POLY-SLO) that is a struggling offensive team scoring <=64 points/game on the season and after a close win by 3 points or less. The team matchups certainly favor Slo in this game noting they are a resounding 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when facing solid foul drawing teams attempting >=25 free throws/game after 15+ games since 1997. CS-Northridge is a miserable money burning 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when facing struggling shooting teams making <=42% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. SLO will certainly want to keep the pace slower than normal and in a grinding type of fashion. They do extremely well with this style of play and rank 11th in the nation allowing 50 opponent shot attempts per game and 37th allowing just 22 opponent made FG per game. Moreover, CS-Northridge truly has no perimeter threat. They rank a horrid 340th making just 4.4 3-point shots per game. They are very good at getting to the free throw and making shots ranking first in the nation making 21.6 per game and 18 attempting 27.3 per game. SLO will, however, be able to pack their zone and force difficult shots in the paint and if the shot clock is winding down 15+ foot perimeter shots. That is the key here for SLO to win the Conference Tournament Championship and advance to the Big Dance. Take Cal Poly Slo.
03-15-14	Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Virginia	Top	48-51	Win	100	3 h 41 m	Show
10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on Virginia in the ACC Conference Tournament semifinals set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will lose this game by fewer than three points and as such has a great shot to advance the Conference Final game Sunday. The following wagering results equal the projections produced by the SIM and underscore the strength of this release. Pittsburgh is 9-2 against the money line (+7.0 Units) in road games when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 against the money line (+8.0 Units) in road games in slower paced games where they attempt 46 to 53 shots over the last 2 seasons. UVA is just 3-16 against the money line (-13.7 Units) in road games facing good foul drawing teams attempting >=25 free throws/game after 15+ games since 1997. This game is going to be quite physical and a much slower pace than the average ACC game. UVA is the top-ranked defense in the nation allowing 55.3 PPG. However, their entire success is predicated on a slow grinding physical pace. They rank just 272nd in scoring offense. Pitt ranks 91st in scoring offense and are hitting 46% of their 3-point shot attempts. A major ket to a win, is hitting around this percentage from beyond the arc, which will force UVA to spread their defense. This in turn opens up much more room in the paint for penetration and scores near the rim or passes to wide open perimeter shooters. I strongly believe that Pitt will have more points scored in the paint than UVA. Take Pittsburgh.
03-15-14	Tennessee +7 v. Florida	Top	49-56	Push	0	2 h 8 m	Show
10* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Florida in the SEC Conference Tournament semifinal set to tip at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UT will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a very real shot at upsetting the No.1 ranked Florida Gators. SIM projects that UT will shoot 31 to 37% form beyond the arc; will force 10 to 13 turnovers. In past games, UT is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons; 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they force 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 3 seasons. The matchups also favor UT noting they are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when facing solid rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons. Situational analysis shows that UT is a near-perfect 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite this season; 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses to opponent) since 1997. Based on the overall stats, these two teams are near mirror images of one another sporting strong defense and solid execution on the offensive end. The biggest difference is that I see UT having a decided edge in rebounding. This is critical for any DOG, especially one that is entertaining thoughts of upsetting the top-ranked team in the nation, as it minimizes the opponent's multi-shot possessions. Tennessee is peaking right now and their defense has just incredible. In the quarterfinal game against South Carolina, they held them scoreless for the first 6-minutes of the game. Jarnell Stokes matched his season-high with 22 points and his team held double digit leads for much of the SC game. UT has the perimeter size that will cause trouble for the Gators - just as it has to all opponents during this winning streak. Right now, I don't see many other teams playing at the peak-level that UT has brought to this Tournament. I also believe that HC Martin has done a masterful job building the team chemistry over the course of the season and now motivating them to even greater accomplishments. "We didn't come to Atlanta to win one game," Martin said. "We came to win the tournament. I told my guys if you're not coming to win the tournament, don't get on the bus." Take Tennessee.
03-14-14	Stanford +3 v. UCLA	Top	59-84	Loss	-105	7 h 30 m	Show
10* graded play on Stanford as they take on UCLA in PAC-12 Conference Tournament action set to start at 11:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I will be making an 8* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. There is a reasonable expectation that the line will move to 3 1/2, so patience is a good thing right now. Reason is simple. More than 79% of all public bets today have been on UCLA and this is certainly a warning flag for backers of UCLA. The public is not always wrong, but it does serve to reinforce the graded play produced by the SIM. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?50-22 ATS mark for 70% winners since 1997. Play on neutral court teams as an underdog (STANFORD) after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better and is now facing an opponent after a game where a team made 50% of their 3 point shots or better. SIM projects that Stanford will shoot 47 to 53% from the field; will make 38 to 45% of their shots from beyond the arc; and will grab 34 to 39 boards. In past games, 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game this season; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game this season; UVCLA just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take Stanford.
03-14-14	Baylor -1.5 v. Texas	Top	86-69	Win	100	7 h 56 m	Show
10* graded play on Texas as they take on Baylor in Big-12 Action set to start at 9:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Texas is only a slight dog and as a result offers no solid opportunity to exploit the money line and form what I commonly call a combination wager. On the surface, these two teams look evenly matched. However, Baylor's defense is extremely vulnerable to passing teams ranking 347th in the nation posting a 1.472 opponent assist-turnover ration and 347th posting a 0. 629 opponent assist-FG made ration. Texas is not an elite passing team, but have the skills and ball handlers to exploit this major weakness in the Baylor defense. Baylor is a strong rebounding team, BUT Texas ranks 3rd getting 42 boards per game. Moreover, they rank 5th getting 13 offensive boards per game. These two matchups give Texas a significant edge to winning this game comfortably. The SIM projections clearly show Texas to be the right side of this game noting they are 7-2 against the money line (+9.4 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 8-2 against the money line (+7.3 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game this season. Take Texas.
03-14-14	Iowa State v. Kansas -4	Top	94-83	Loss	-110	7 h 52 m	Show
10* graded play on Kansas as they take on Iowa State in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kansas will win this game by 7 or more points. SIM projects that Kansas will score 81 to 86 points and will shoot 47 to 53% from the field. In past games, Kansas is a solid 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game this season; 62-33 ATS (+25.7 Units) when they score 81 to 86 points in a game since 1997; 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Iowa State is a money burning 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they allow 81 to 86 points in a game since 1997; 25-64 ATS (-45.4 Units) when they allow 81 or more points in a game since 1997. For those of you, who like the money line you will ove the fact that Kansas is a near-perfect 15-3 against the money line (+11.2 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. The biggest mtachup advantage for Kansas is rebounding. This is a glaring disparity and one that will be a dominant factor in Kansas winning this in a blowout fashion. Kansas ranks 20th in the nation allowing 30.8 rebounds per game, despite being 20th in scoring offense. ISU is a horrid 324th allowing opponents 38 boards per game. Kansas will have more total rebounds and will certainly have more offensive boards leading to multi-shot scoring possessions. That wears down any defense and it will again tonight. Take Kansas.
03-13-14	Memphis v. Connecticut +2.5	Top	53-72	Win	100	9 h 44 m	Show
10* graded play on UCONN as they take on Memphis in AAC Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UCONN can win this game. SIM projects that UCONN will have 9 to 13 offensive boards; 34 to 39 total rebounds; and commit 10 to 13 turnovers. In past games, UCONN is a solid 131-55 against the money line (+38.2 Units) when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game since 1997; 9-3 against the money line (+7.8 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 14-6 against the money line (+9.6 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. This matchup definitely favors the UCONN defense and I believe they will give Memphis a lot of matchup problems. UCONN has struggled on the offensive end over the last 5 games and based on the matchups I have reviewed, UCONN will have a much better offensive production in this game. This is simply one of those games, where I believe the wrong team is favored. Take UCONN.
03-13-14	Central Florida +13 v. Cincinnati	Top	58-61	Win	100	2 h 31 m	Show
10* graded play on UCF as they on Cincinnati in the AAC Conference Tournament. This pits No. 1 seed Cincinnati against the No. 9 seed UCF The simulator shows a high probability that Cincinnati will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-15 ATS mark for 77.3% winners since 1997. Play against neutral court teams (CINCINNATI) after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing record team. Don't be fooled by the losing record posted by UCF as they are playing their best team basketball of the season. Their swingman Sykes is playing at a very high level and I do strongly believe that he will cause some major problems for a strong Cincy defense. UCF ranks 36th in the nation getting 38 total rebounds per game and 13th in offensive boards at 12.1 per game. They rank 42nd in attempted shots, but the majority of them are not from the perimeter or beyond the arc. They did play Temple last night in a barn-burner winning 94-90. I do NOT believe fatigue will be a factor for them. Quite frankly having played a game and doing as well as they offensively can only serve as a very big confidence builder. They simply have nothing to lose going up against the No.1 seed and just let it rip at both ends of the court. I do think the frantic pace that UCF will play can and will wear down the Cincy defense making this a much closer game than most believe possible. Moreover, the public si betting this game at a high level with more than 78% of all best made by the 'retail' crown on the Bearcats. This only reinforces my belief that UCF will compete strongly against Cincinnati. Take UCF
03-12-14	American v. Boston U. -6.5	Top	55-36	Loss	-106	4 h 8 m	Show
10* graded play on Boston University as they take on American University in the Patriot League Championship set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BU will win this game by 8 or more points. Of the numerous projections by the SIM, two really stand out and work against a defensive minded American team that can really struggle on the offensive end. SIM shows that BU will score 67 to 74 points and will force 14 to 18 turnovers. In past games, BU is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game since 1997; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997. BU skipper Jones is a solid preparer of his team in big games and Tournament action. His results stand at 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all tournament games in all games he has coached since 1997. With American playing a slow grinding pace of play ranking 350th in the nation attempting just 47 shots-per-game, the turnovers that BU will generate tonight takes even more scoring opportunities away from American. BU is excellent at causing turnovers as well ranking 70th forcing 14 per game. BU will look to run on every missed American missed shot and this will force the pace of play to exploit American's weakness on the court. Take Boston University.
03-12-14	Notre Dame v. Wake Forest OVER 136	Top	69-81	Win	100	1 h 9 m	Show
10* graded play 'OVER' the posted total in the Notre Dame-Wake Forest matchup in the first round of the ACC Tournament set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that 140 or more points will be scored in this game. SIM projects that both teams will have above average shooting percentages. Specifically, one calls for ND to shoot 31 to 37% of their 3-pointers. In past games, ND is a solid 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Wake Forest is 69-33 OVER (+32.7 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997. I strongly believe that both teams will score 70+ points in this game. Take the OVER.
03-11-14	BYU +4.5 v. Gonzaga	Top	64-75	Loss	-110	7 h 22 m	Show
10* graded play on BYU as they take on Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Championship game set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game. So, given the favorable projections, I will place a 7.5* amount using the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line for a maximum risk of 10* units. BYU has the 324th ranked scoring defense, but that is really because they play a very high tempo of game with their scoring offense ranked 2nd in the nation. The defense is truly not that bad as BYU ranks 48th in scoring margin and a re a very strong rebounding team. BY ranks fifth in defensive rebounding and 28th on the offensive glass, which matches up very well against Gonzaga, who ranks 160th in allowing opponent offensive boards. One of the keys to any dog that gets an upset win is minimizing the favorite's multi-shot possessions and I strongly believe BYU will have a significant rebounding edge. Despite the BYU high paced style of play they rank a very solid 82nd with 11.4 turnovers per game. That translate to 18th rank posting a 13% ratio in turnovers per possession, which is very strong. Take BYU.
03-11-14	Rice +6 v. North Texas	Top	62-63	Win	100	4 h 21 m	Show
10* graded play on Rice as they take on North Texas in the first round of the C-USA Tournament set to start at 5:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rice will lose this game by fewer than 4 points. I like making this play a combination wager comprised of an 8* amount using the line and a 2* using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-16 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2008. Play on any team (N TEXAS) revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points and is off 2 consecutive home losses of 10 points or more. NT is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing a game as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons. BT is off a 79-68 home loss and failing to cover installed as 7 point dogs. Rice, despite having just 7 wins on the season moves the ball very well on offense. They rank 70th in the nation getting 14 assists per game and this type of ball movement plays right into the weakness of the NT defense that ranks 243rd in scoring defense and 318th in total opponent rebounding. Rice will have far more multi-shot possessions and will be the dominant reason they win this game. Take Rice.
03-10-14	Western Carolina +3 v. Wofford	Top	53-56	Push	0	10 h 32 m	Show
10* graded play on West Carolina (WC) as they take on Wofford in the Southern Conference Championship game set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that WC will win this game. With a current line of 3 1/2 points and I like making this a combination wager, just as I did in both of yesterday's upset winners with St. Louis and William and Mary. I will make an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line. If this line drops to '3' and the money line to less than +140, then I would only suggest a 10* play using the line. This is a matchup of contrasting style with Wofford sporting a very solid defense, but suspect offense and WC the direct opposite. The major difference in this game will be that WC will win the battle of the boards and will have many more multi-shot possessions than Wofford. WC is an excellent offensive rebounding team ranking 29th in the nation. I do not see Wofford being able to matchup with that WC athleticism and quickness tonight. Most of the other matchups give only a slight advantage to the other team, BUT I do feel that the rebounding edge is huge for WC. King and Brown are the two players I would watch on the offensive glass and two that have the best opportunity to rebound missed shots. Moreover, I like the bench depth that WC brings to this game. They 10 players averaging double digits in minutes and only their scoring leader, Trey Sumier (36 minutes), averages more than 27 minutes per game. Take Western Carolina.
03-10-14	Manhattan -2 v. Iona	Top	71-68	Win	100	4 h 6 m	Show
10* graded play on Manhattan as they take on Iona in the MAAC Conference Championship set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Manhattan will win this game by 6 or more points. Infrequently, I get surprised by a line and this is certainly one where I felt that Iona would be a 3 point favorite for this game. That input is sometimes meaningful when working with my SIMulator, but more times it saves me from making a wrong bet. The fact that the line has Manhattan favored by two points currently and was pick-em earlier today shows that the BIG money is squarely on Manhattan. 56% of all best have been on Iona, but the line has steadily made Manhattan an increased favorite. This is clearly a reflection that the so-called smart-money is on Manhattan. When this sort of wagering phenomenon occurs and it is inline with my SIM projections it is certainly an additional confidence booster. Manhattan has the better defense by a wide margin. Iona ranks 322nd in the nation in scoring defense, but third in scoring offense. Manhattan ranks 160th in scoring defense and 31st in scoring offense. There is no doubt that Manhattan can and will run with Iona, but because they will make a high percentage of their shots it will minimize any fast break scoring opportunities for Iona. Manhattan is a vastly better rebounding team at both ends of the court and that will minimize Iona's multi-shot possessions. The following game situations are based on the SIM projections for this game. Manhattan is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons; 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 3 seasons. Iona is a money burning 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997. Take Manhattan.
03-10-14	William & Mary v. Delaware -4	Top	74-75	Loss	-109	4 h 35 m	Show
10* graded play on Delaware as they take on William and Mary in the Colonial Athletic Championship game set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Delaware will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?23-3 ATS mark for 89% winners since 1997. Play on neutral court teams (WM & MARY) in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams making 69 to 73% after 15+ games and after 2 straight games making 50% of their 3 point shots or better. SIM projects that the Blue Hens will make 47 to 53% of their shots and will score 75 to 80 points in this game. In past games, Blue Hens are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 34-13 ATS (+19.7 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997; W&M are just 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997; 33-70 ATS (-44.0 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997. Take Delaware.
03-09-14	William & Mary +2.5 v. Towson	Top	75-71	Win	100	5 h 34 m	Show
10* graded play on William and Mary as they take on Towson State in the semifinal of the Colonial Athletic Conference Tournament set to tip at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that W&M will win this game. Given that they are 3 point dogs, I like making this a combination wager as long as you can get +145 on the money line. This may preclude a line movement back to 3 1/2, which I believe will occur as game time approaches. If the money line is not at +145 or higher refrain from the combination wager and simply play a 10* amount using the line only. If you can get +145 or higher, then place an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line. W&M ranks 29th in the nation committing just 10.5 turnovers-per-game. Shaver is 7-2 against the money line (+10.8 Units) after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers as the coach of WM & MARY. W&M ranks 32nd posting a very strong 1.312 assist-turnover ratio. Ball handling will be the dominant reason W&M advances to the Conference Final. Towson ranks 269th posting a 0.868 assist-turnover ratio meaning they are turning the ball over far more than recording scoring assists. In fact, Towson does a very poor job in ball distribution ranking a horrid 334th getting only 9.7 assists-per-game. This lack of ball movement will allow W&M to pack to 2-3 zone or 2-2-1 framework and not be expose to their weakness which is defensive rotation. Moreover, W&M has averaged only 7.6 turnovers per game over their last 7. Towson has forced 11 or less turnovers in all games played dating back to December 18. Take William & Mary.
03-09-14	St. Louis +3 v. Massachusetts	Top	64-62	Win	100	3 h 38 m	Show
10* graded play on St. Louis as they take to the road to play UMASS in a A-10 Conference showdown set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that STL will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning his game SU. SIM projects that STL will attempt 54 to 62 shots, will make 40 to 46% of those shot attempts. In past games, STL is a strong money making 12-2 against the money line (+10.2 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 18-4 against the money line (+11.7 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. SIM also projects that STL will make 31 to 37% of their three-point shot attempts. In past games, STL is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 3 seasons. Further, STL is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when facing good shooting teams making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. UMASS is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. STL is limping into the A-10 Conference Tournament as the No.1 seed, but will send a message to the conference with a SU road win in Amherst this afternoon.
03-08-14	Idaho State +5 v. Portland State	Top	74-78	Win	100	11 h 36 m	Show
10* graded play on Idaho State as they take on Portland State set to start at 10:00 PM ET The simulator shows a high probability that ISU will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game SU. Given this favorable projection, I will make this a combination wager comprised of an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line. The dominant key to this game is that ISU will have a significant edge in rebounding with the SIM projecting that they will have at least four more boards minimum than PSU. In past games, ISU is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons. ISU may be just 11-17 on the season, but they are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. PSU is just 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Moreover, ISU is a 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.
03-08-14	Georgetown v. Villanova -9.5	Top	59-77	Win	102	2 h 18 m	Show
10* graded play on Villanova as they host Georgetown in Big East Conference play set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game by 12 or more points. SIM projects that Villanova will make 31 to 37% of shots from beyond the arc; will attempt at least four more free throws; will have 9 to 13 offensive boards; will have 40 to 44 total rebounds; will at least four more boards; and will commit 10 to 13 turnovers. All of these projections have been big money makers for Villanova and the combination of all of them simply augments this play to Game of the Month status. Villanova is a rock solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game this season; 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game this season; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take Villanova.
03-06-14	Iowa v. Michigan State -4.5	Top	76-86	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
10* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Iowa in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MSU will win this game by at least 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-10 ATS mark for 80% ATS winners since 1997. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (IOWA) in a game involving 2 very good teams outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG and after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games. SIM projects that MSU will shoot 47 to 53% form the field; will score 75 to 80 points. In past games, MSU is a solid money making 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Iowa is just 31-88 ATS (-65.8 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997; 15-59 ATS (-49.9 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. Take Michigan State.
03-04-14	Michigan v. Illinois +3	Top	84-53	Loss	-105	5 h 42 m	Show
10* graded play on Illinois as they host Michigan in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Illinois will win this game. Based on the early betting flows I do see a strong chance that this line, now at +3 points, will move to at least 3 1/2 points. In more than 140 Hardwood releases, NBA and NCAAM combined, I have just 1 push in the NBA and 2 on the Hardwood. So, I am not looking to milk the line. It always is prudent though to take advantage of the flows and shop for the best line. What really matters here is the forming of the combination wager. The money line I am seeing right now is +130/135 for Illinois. At that level, the combination wager does not produce enough ROI for the added risk of using the money line. But, at +155/160 (where I see this line moving) the combination wager does offer some excellent and worthwhile returns. So, if the line moves to 3 1/2 and higher, I will be placing an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line for a risk of 10* amount. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-16 ATS mark for 73% winners since 1997. Play against a road team (MICHIGAN) off a home win by 10 points or more and is now facing an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog of 12 points or more. Michigan is just 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing only their 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons. Beilein is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival as the coach of Michigan. Take Illinois.
03-03-14	Notre Dame v. North Carolina -10.5	Top	61-63	Loss	-110	6 h 15 m	Show
10* graded play on North Carolina as they host Notre Dame in ACC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UNC will win this game by 15 or more points. This game is a near mirror image of my 10* winning play on Villanova, who easily defeated and covered against Marquette Sunday. ND is coming off a very hard loss losing to Pittsburgh in OT and the dominant reason was poor rebounding. UNC is playing their last home game tonight of the regular season and is assured of a BYE to the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament set to start next week in Greensboro, NC. They have had a great stretch of Conference wins, but they have come in a wide array of situations. In their last game, they had to work very hard to get by Virginia Tech where they hit just 50% form the foul line. The fact that they have won games in so many different ways ranging from shootouts, to OT, to low scoring affairs, makes them a very solid favorite to win the ACC Tournament next week. Tokoto is a player that has an endless engine when playing and that energy spreads to the rest of the team. He is not the marquee starter, but he is a tremendous worker at both ends of the floor and he alone is going to be a problem for ND, especially on the offensive glass. SIM projects that UNC will make between 47 and 53% of their shots; will hold ND to less than 46% shooting; will attempt 19 to 24 free throws; will score 75 to 80 points. In past games, UNC is a solid 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they attempt 19 to 24 free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take North Carolina.
03-02-14	Marquette v. Villanova -9.5	Top	56-73	Win	100	3 h 45 m	Show
10* graded play on Villanova as they host Marquette at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia starting at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game by 14 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-20 ATS mark for 70% winners since 1997. Play on home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points in the month of March (VILLANOVA) after a cover as a double digit favorite. Momentum, both positive and negative is a major intangible in College Hoops come March. Villanova is off a most impressive drubbing of Butler winning 67-48 February 26. What has been most impressive is not the margin of victory, but that the defense held Butler to 48 points. Coach Wright has been publicly stating over the last month that his team needs to focus and improve greatly on defense. I believe they have and that defense is only going to get better in March. As many of you know, I had Xavier in their upset win over Creighton as my 10* Big East Game of the Month. The Creighton loss now gives Villanova a clear run to the Conference Championship. Marquette is just 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Villanova is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points this season. Take the Wildcats.
03-01-14	Creighton v. Xavier +3	Top	69-75	Win	100	5 h 13 m	Show
10* graded play on Xavier as they host Creighton in Big East Conference action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Xavier will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at earning a very strong home upset win. Given this favorable projection from the SIM (neural network) I like making this 10* play a combination wager using an 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line for a total risk of 10.5 * units. I had Xavier called in my 10* Upset Alert Titan winner as they defeated St. Johns in their last game. They have been playing increasingly better and I believe are playing at a season-best level right now and are fully capable of defeating Creighton. The SIM projects that Xavier will have at least 4 more rebounds; will make at least 47% of their shot attempts. In past games, Creighton is a weak 35-94 ATS (-68.4 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 3 seasons. Xavier is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game this season; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game this season. McDermott has had a great season for Creighton, but this matchup is going to be too tough for him to carry his team to another win. Of note, is that Xavier has sold standing room only tickets marking the first time this has ever been done at the Cintas Center. This is a very difficult place for any opponent to play and now the crowd will be larger and even more intense tonight. Take Xavier.
03-01-14	La Salle v. Fordham +5	Top	64-62	Win	100	4 h 18 m	Show
10* graded play on Fordham as they take on LaSalle in action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Fordham will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like making these powerful dogs combination bets an din this specific situation the wager will be an 8* amount using the line and a 2.5* amount using the Money Line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?115-60 ATS for 65.7% winners since 1997. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (FORDHAM) after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games and is a struggling team winning between 20% to 40% of games played and is now playing a team with a losing record. The following game situations match the SIM projections. LaSalle is just 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when they force 10 to 13 turnovers in a game this season. Take Fordham.
03-01-14	Auburn v. Alabama -4.5	Top	57-73	Win	100	2 h 19 m	Show
10* graded play on Alabama as they take on Auburn in SEC Conference action set to start at 3:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Alabama will win this game by 7 or more points. In summary, my research clearly shows that Auburn just does not match up well against Alabama's physical and grinding style of play. Auburn is just s 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 2 seasons; 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in road games after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds since 1997. In the last game Auburn hammered Alabama 74-55 and covered as 1 point favorites. It was more of Alabama just having a very poor game and not a domination as the score would reflect. Moreover, Alabama is a solid money making 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points over the last 3 seasons. Take Alabama.
03-01-14	Louisville -5 v. Memphis	Top	66-72	Loss	-103	1 h 19 m	Show
10* graded play on Louisville as they take on Memphis in set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Louisville will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?43-14 ATS mark for 76% winners since 1997. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Louisville is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. Moreover, Louisville has done well against teams like Memphis. Specifically, they are a solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games facing good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Take Louisville.

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