Oregon State is in a massive rebuilding year in 2015.  The Beavers have a new head coach in Gary Andersen who was at Wisconsin that past two seasons and at Utah State the previous four seasons.  Andersen is a good coach and he made a shrewd hire in defensive coordinator Kalani Sitake from Utah.  However, the Beavers are implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball, and there’s only ten returning players with experience.  Oregon State beat FCS Weber State 26-7 at home last week, but it was just a 13-7 game in the third quarter.  True freshman quarterback Seth Collins played terrible as he completed just 10 of his 18 passes for 92 yards.  Now he’ll be making his first collegiate road start while stepping way up in competition against a terrific Michigan defense.  Collins and the Oregon State offense will have an extremely difficult time moving the football in this game.  While things look bright in the future for Oregon State, the team will suffer thru a tough 2015 starting in this game on Saturday.

Michigan was up against it last week in their season opener.  The Wolverines had to play on the road in the thin air and altitude of Utah, and they were also playing a stout defensive team.  Michigan did not play bad at all considering the circumstances, and in fact, the Wolverines out-gained Utah 355-337 despite losing 24-17.  Michigan returns home for this game, and they are in a fantastic situational spot for a big win.  New head coach Jim Harbaugh knows how big of a game this is, and Michigan gets the perfect opponent to beat by a big number.  The Wolverines’ offense is led by senior quarterback Jake Rudock who started 25 games at Iowa.  Rudock threw three interceptions last week, but that was a rare thing since he only had 18 total turnovers in his previous 25 starts.  Michigan’s offense will play significantly better in this game as they are taking a monumental step down in class, going from the stout Utah defense to an Oregon State defense that only has 2 returning starters from last season.  We’ll lay the points with Michigan in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MICHIGAN (-).

Ohio State is looking to avenge last season’s 35-21 home loss to Virginia Tech on Monday night.  There was nothing fluky about that game as Virginia Tech held the potent Buckeyes’ offense to just 327 yards of total offense with 108 of those yards coming on the ground; they averaged just 2.7 yards per rush.  Ohio State had an incredible rushing attack that averaged 264 yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush last season, so it was ultra impressive what Virginia Tech’s defense did in that game.  Ohio State ran the table and won the National Championship after that loss, so what the Hokies did in that game makes it even more eye-opening.  It’s true that Ohio State has an even better team this season, but so does Virginia Tech.  Plus the Buckeyes are dealing with suspensions to some of their better players (DE Joey Bosa being one), so they are not at full strength for this game. 

Virginia Tech only went 7-6 in 2014, but five of their six losses came by 7 points or less with three losses coming by 3 points or less.  Virginia Tech returns 16 total starters (8 on each side of the ball) this season, so they’ll have a much better win/loss record in 2015.  The Hokies always possess a stout defense; they allowed just 20.2 points per game on 344 yards of offense per game last season.  Virginia Tech allowed 30 points or more in just two games last season, and the 21 points they held Ohio State to were 10 points less than the 31 points or more they scored in their other 14 games.  The Hokies held the Buckeyes to 23.8 points less than their season average of 44.8 points per game.  This line is simply inflated, especially since Virginia Tech was just an 11.5-point road underdog in last year’s meeting.  We’ll take the Hokies plus the points in this game on Monday night.

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

Arkansas State will be a good team in the Sun Belt conference this season, but they are simply out-classed in this game versus USC.  The Red Wolves have shown no ability to step-up in class on the road in recent years as their defense cannot stop teams from BCS conferences.  In their last six road games versus power conferences, Arkansas State has allowed 34, 41, 38, 41, 57, and 42 points.  The Red Wolves have no chance to match points with the potent USC offense in this game, especially since they’ll have limited scoring opportunities.  Arkansas State returns just six starters on defense, and that unit was awful last season despite playing with seven returnees from the season before.  The Red Wolves gave up 30.5 points on 421 yards per game, and that unit will get roughed-up in this game against Southern Cal.

USC is a loaded team that includes 14 starters from last year’s 9-4 team that had to play a brutal schedule with multiple injuries and limited depth.  Head coach Steve Sarkisian is in his second season in Los Angeles, and his team will improve significantly in 2015.  The Trojans have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and their offense will be led by one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Cody Kessler.  He completed 69.7% of his passes last season for 3,826 yards with an exceptional 39/5 touchdown/interception ratio.  The Trojans are on a mission this season after the mess they’ve been thru over the last few seasons.  USC is not going to take this game lightly as they need to impress to get back on the national radar.  We’ll lay the points with the Trojans on Saturday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Troy will begin a new era on Saturday night as new head coach Neal Brown replaces Larry Blakeney who won 178 games over the last 24 seasons.  Troy had a terrible 3-9 record in 2014, and a major reason for that was the poor play of their offense which averaged just 21.8 points per game.  The Trojans’ defense has been a sieve in recent years, and in fact, Troy has allowed 30 points per game or more in five straight seasons.  With Brown implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball, Troy will go thru growing pains, especially early on this season.  Troy has been noncompetitive when playing on the road against BCS schools in recent years.  Last season, the Trojans lost 66-0 at Georgia.  The season before, Troy lost 62-7 at Mississippi State.  Both of those SEC teams have power running attacks, and that is the exact type of team Troy will face in this game at North Carolina State.

NC State will be in their third year under head coach Dave Doeren.  The Wolfpack improved on both sides of the ball last season, and we expect major improvement once again in 2015.  Doeren has 15 returning starters back from last season’s 8-5 team which averaged 30.2 points per game on 409 yards of offense per game.  NC State’s strength is running the football; they averaged 205 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush last season.  Quarterback Jacoby Brissett made a huge difference for this team after transferring from Florida.  He’s a dual threat quarterback that creates a lot of big plays with his arm and his legs, and that ability makes NC State’s offense difficult to stop.  This game is a mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Wolfpack on Saturday night.

9* Play NC STATE (-).

Texas-San Antonio was expected to be a really good team last season as they returned 20 starters from a team that went 7-5 the previous season.  But the Roadrunners failed miserably as they went just 4-8 in 2014.  Now UTSA comes into this season will little expectations as they are one of the youngest and least experienced teams in college football.  The Roadrunners only have 6 returning starters from last season, and they have limited depth on the two-deep after graduating the majority of their team.  UTSA will start a redshirt freshman (Blake Bogenschutz) at quarterback which is certainly a negative, especially with this game being on the road against a strong Pac 12 team.  Head coach Larry Coker has also indicated that Bogenschutz will not be the only quarterback to play in this game, and that is not good for the mindset of a young signal caller.  “The No. 1 job is very close and it isn’t over. This thing is going to battle out throughout the year. You may see more than one quarterback the first ball game.”  Bogenschutz and any other quarterback will play behind a makeshift offensive line that is a complete mess coming into this game.  The Roadrunners altered their line just this week, moving their right guard to center.  “We’re just going to put our best five on the field,” said coach Mike Markuson.  “However we have to get ’em on the field, right guard, center, it doesn’t matter.”  Those quotes show there’s no stability, and it means UTSA will have a difficult time moving the football in this game.

Arizona returns 7 offensive starters from last year’s team that went 10-4.  The Wildcats averaged 34.5 points per game on 464 yards per game in 2014, and that was with a freshman quarterback under center.  Anu Solomon returns for his sophomore season, and the offense will be even better than they were a season ago.  Solomon faced UTSA in the second game of last season; that was his first collegiate road start, and it came on a short week.  Solomon still lead the Wildcats to 26 points on 454 yards of offense.  Arizona ran for 223 yards on 5.1 yards per rush, and they will dominate on the ground once again in this game.  Head coach Rich Rodriguez is in his fourth season in Tucson, and his team has come out scoring in the last two years.  Arizona won their home opener 35-0 in 2013, and last season they won their home opener 58-13.  This game is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats on Thursday night. 

10* Play ARIZONA (-).

Ohio State has been ultra-impressive in their last two games.  The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big 10 championship game, and they beat Alabama 42-35 in the Sugar Bowl.  Ohio State did that with their third string quarterback, Cardale Jones, which makes the wins even more impressive.  However, both of those wins came against similar teams as both Wisconsin and Alabama play power football, looking to win games with their big and physical offensive lines while running a pro style offense.  Those teams also have a similar look on the defensive side of the ball as they use their size and strength to overpower opponents.  Ohio State is built in a similar fashion, so the match-ups for the Buckeyes couldn’t have been any better.  The Buckeyes will face an Oregon team that is completely different than the teams they just played, and they are at a huge disadvantage since they’ve only had ten days to prepare for this game.  Ohio State did not face a team with the skill and speed of Oregon all season, and with this game inside a dome on a fast track, the Ducks’ quickness edge will be even more pronounced, especially as the game goes on.      

Oregon has steamrolled their opponents all year.  Twelve of Oregon’s thirteen wins have come by 12 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 29.7 points per game.  The Ducks have an explosive offense that averages 47.2 points per game on an incredible 7.4 yards per play.  Those stellar offensive numbers came against a collection of defenses that allowed 31.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Ohio State’s defense has strong seasonal numbers, but keep in mind they did not face an explosive offense like Oregon’s all season.  The Buckeyes’ defense faced a slate of offenses that only averaged 28.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Oregon’s offense averages 18.9 points per game more and 1.7 yards per play more than the average of Ohio State’s opponents.  Ohio State’s defense is definitely facing the best offense they’ve seen all season, and the Buckeyes will be hard-pressed at slowing down the Ducks.  Oregon’s defense has faced a slate of explosive offenses that averaged 30.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Ducks held those teams to just 22.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Oregon is simply the better team on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Ducks in the National Championship Game on Monday night. 

10* Play OREGON (-).

Toledo and Arkansas State are all offense and no defense, so we expect a high-scoring shootout on Sunday night.  Toledo has a potent offense that averaged 34.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season.  The Rockets are extremely well-balanced as they ran for 251.3 yards and threw for 239 yards per game this season.  Toledo will be facing a poor Arkansas State defense that allowed 35.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play away from home this season.  Those awful defensive numbers for the Red Wolves came against a weak slate of offenses that only averaged 25.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this season.  Against the five bowl teams they faced this season, Arkansas State allowed 31 points on 408 yards of offense per game.     

Arkansas State also had a very good offense this season.  The Red Wolves averaged 36.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 29.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Like Toledo, the Red Wolves were extremely well-balanced as they ran for 229.9 yards and threw for 248.2 yards per game this season.  Toledo’s defense played below average football this season as the Rockets gave up 29.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only averaged 26.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Against the six bowl teams they faced this season, Toledo allowed 34 points on 435 yards of offense per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Toledo and Arkansas State on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma State was terrible this season, and the Cowboys needed to beat rival Oklahoma as 19.5-point underdogs in their season finale to qualify for a bowl game.  Oklahoma State went just 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS overall this season, and there was a lot of turmoil between head coach Mike Gundy and booster T. Boone Pickens.  The Cowboys were not a cohesive group all season, and we don’t expect things to be much different now.  Oklahoma State will be without their best playmaker, Tyreek Hill, who is off the team after getting arrested.  Oklahoma State had terrible quarterback play after J.W. Walsh got hurt; Daxx Garman was simply terrible.  In a move of desperation to save face, Gundy had to lift the redshirt off true freshman QB Mason Rudolph.  In his two starts, Oklahoma State lost 49-28 at Baylor and they beat Oklahoma 38-35.  The Cowboys may have their quarterback of the future, but this will just his third collegiate start, and it comes against a terrific Washington defense that allowed just 24.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 32.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play this season.        

Washington closed the year playing some of their best football of the season.  The Huskies were in their first year under head coach Chris Petersen, and it took them a while to catch on to his system.  But once they did, the team was outstanding, and we expect them to dominate their opponent in this game.  Washington has a terrific rushing attack that averaged 195.3 yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush.  The Huskies will run all over an Oklahoma State defense that allowed 208 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush against the seven bowl teams they faced this season.  The Cowboys allowed 200 yards or more four times this season, and they gave up 42, 34, 49, and 35 points in those games.  Washington’s wins this season have been big as seven of their eight wins have come by 7 points or more.  Oklahoma State’s losses this season have been big as five of their six losses have come by 21 points or more.  We’ll lay the points with Washington in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play WASHINGTON (-).

Ohio State and Alabama both have explosive offenses, and on a fast track inside a dome, we expect a high-scoring game.  The Crimson Tide have an offense that averaged 37.1 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 25.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Alabama is extremely well-balanced as they run and pass for more than 208 yards per game.  The Crimson Tide running game averaged 5.1 yards per rush this season, and they will face an Ohio State run defense that is not in good current form.  The Buckeyes have allowed 179 rushing yards or more in three of their last five games.  Prior to their shutout of Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game, the Buckeyes’ defense had given up 24 points or more in four straight games, and overall they allowed 24 points or more in eight of their thirteen games this season.   

Ohio State will once again play this game with backup quarterback Cardale Jones after J.T. Barrett broke his ankle in the regular season finale.  Jones was terrific against Wisconsin, and we expect more of the same from the Ohio State offense in this game.  Overall this season, the Buckeyes averaged 45.2 points per game on 7.0 yards per play.  They put those strong numbers up against a good slate of defensive opponents that only allowed 25.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Buckeyes will face an Alabama defense that has faced a slew of weak offenses that only averaged 5.7 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide defense allowed 20 points or more in six games this season despite playing poor scoring offenses.  We expect a high-scoring game between Ohio State and Alabama in the Sugar Bowl on Thursday night.   

10* Play OVER the total.

Ohio State has played tremendous football this season, and they didn’t skip a beat in the Big 10 Championship Game event though they were playing with their third-string quarterback.  The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin 59-0 and earned their way into the college football playoffs.  Overall this season, Ohio State’s offense averaged 45.2 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  Those impressive offensive numbers came against a strong slate of defenses that allowed just 25.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Ohio State has an exceptional rushing attack that averaged 261 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush.  That strong running game has opened up big plays downfield for Ohio State, and it has allowed their quarterbacks to throw for an incredible 9.2 yards per pass attempt this season.  The Buckeyes have fantastic offensive balance, and teams with such a profile are exceptional plays as underdogs.

Alabama went 12-1 SU this season, but the Crimson Tide weren’t as dominant as some of their previous teams.  Alabama won five games by 11 points or less with three of those wins coming by 7 points or less.  The Crimson Tide actually played a worse slate of defenses than Ohio State as their opponents allowed 25.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Buckeyes’ defense was better than Alabama’s opponents as they gave up just 21 points per game on 4.7 yards per play away from home this season.  The Crimson Tide only went 6-6 ATS this season, including a 1-2 ATS mark as a single digit favorite.  That lone spread cover was fortunate as it came against LSU when Alabama won 20-13 in overtime as a 6.5-point favorite.  These two teams are much closer than the point spread indicates, so we’ll take Ohio State plus the points in this national semifinal on Thursday night.   

9* Play OHIO STATE (+).

Florida State has been living on the edge all season, and we expect their good fortunes to come to an end in this game against Oregon.  The Seminoles are on a 29-game winning streak, but the biggest difference between this year’s team and last year’s team has been the close games.  Florida State blew out all their opponents last season; they won thirteen games by 14 points or more.  This season, Florida State has only won five games by 14 points or more with their other eight wins coming by an average of just 5.1 points per game.  The Seminoles have found ways to win games in which they trailed by double digits, and usually that’s a sign of a really good team.  But we have to take into account the opponents played, and frankly, Florida State’s opponents were a mixed bag of mediocre and bad teams.  If the Seminoles were as good as last season, close games would not have been against the likes of Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami Florida, Boston College, Florida, and Georgia Tech.  All of those teams have name recognition, but none of them are close to being in the upper echelon of college football this season.

Oregon comes into this game like the Florida State of last season; the Ducks have steamrolled their opponents all year.  Eleven of Oregon’s twelve wins have come by 12 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping +28.8 points per game.  The Ducks have an explosive offense that averaged 46.3 points per game on an incredible 7.3 yards per play.  Those stellar offensive numbers came against a collection of defenses that allowed just 31.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Florida State’s defense was tremendous last season, but this year’s stop unit is significantly worse.  Away from home, the Seminoles gave up 30.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play despite playing a weak group of offenses that averaged just 26.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Florida State’s defense is definitely facing the best offense they’ve seen all season, and the Seminoles have virtually no chance at slowing down the Ducks.  We’ll lay the points with Oregon in this national semifinal game in the Rose Bowl. 

9* Play OREGON (-).

Minnesota and Missouri are evenly matched, so this game should be close throughout and come right down to the wire.  Missouri played the slightly tougher schedule, but the team’s overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board.  Minnesota went 8-4 SU and a solid 7-4 ATS this season.  Three of their four losses came to TCU, Ohio State, and Wisconsin who went a combined 33-5 in the regular season.  Those three teams are simply superior to Minnesota; their other loss only came by 4 points at Illinois.  The Golden Gophers’ offense is better than perceived as they averaged 29.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 27 points per game on just 5.3 yards per play.        

Missouri surprised many by going 10-3 SU this season.  The Tigers figured to be down a few notches after losing a slew of talent from last year’s 12-2 team.  Despite the strong record, Missouri played in a lot of close games this season as six of their last seven wins came by 10 points or less with the average win only coming by 8.8 points per game.  It’s also interesting to note that Missouri was an underdog in seven of their last nine games of the season; they were favored against the two dregs of the SEC, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.  The Tigers’ offense underperformed this season as they only averaged 5.3 yards per play against defenses that allowed 5.4 yards per play.  That weak Missouri offense will face a good Minnesota defense that only gave up 23.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season.  Missouri also has a good defense, but Minnesota’s offense has scored 24 points or more in eleven of their twelve games this season.  We’ll take the points with Minnesota as this game comes right down to the wire.

9* Play MINNESOTA (+).

Michigan State and Baylor will be an entertaining game, and it’s quite likely that the team that has the ball and scores last wins this game.  The Spartans have a reputation of a stout defensive team, but that was last year.  The Michigan State of this season is totally different as they are an explosive offensive team that has scored 27 points or more in every game this season.  Overall, the Spartans averaged 43.1 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season.  Those impressive numbers were put-up against defenses that allowed 29.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Michigan State is extremely well-balanced as they run for 234.9 yards per game and throw for 261.6 yards per game.  The Spartans only travel 11.5 yards to score a point which shows just how efficient they are.  Michigan State will face a Baylor defense that gave up 26.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play away from home this season.

Baylor has one of the best offenses in the country.  The Bears are simply an offensive juggernaut that has scored 27 points or more in every game this season.  Overall, Baylor averaged 48.8 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  The Bears were also quite efficient as they only had to travel 11.9 yards to score a point.  Baylor’s impressive offensive numbers came against a slate of defenses that allowed 32.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  While those opposing defenses were weak overall, keep in mind Baylor will now be facing a Michigan State defense that was shredded when facing good offenses this season.  The Spartans gave up 46 points and 491 yards of offense to Oregon and they gave up 49 points and 568 yards of offense versus Ohio State.  We expect both offenses to be the best units on the field, and that will result in a high-scoring game between Michigan State and Baylor in the Cotton Bowl on Thursday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Boise State and Arizona is a terrific matchup for a back and forth high-scoring shootout.  The Broncos have a potent offense that averaged 39.8 points per game on 6.5 yards per play this season.  Boise State is extremely well-balanced as they run and pass for over 219 yards per game.  The Broncos played ten bowl opponents this season, and their offense didn’t slow down at all.  They averaged 36 points per game on 494 yards per game while gaining 6.3 yards per play.  The impressive thing about Boise State’s offensive numbers is the fact they accumulated them against a solid group of opposing defenses.  The Broncos’ opponents only allowed 26.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Arizona played eight bowl opponents this season, and their defense gave up 27 points and 455 yards per game.         

Arizona has an explosive offense that averaged 34.8 points and 462 yards of offense per game while gaining 5.8 yards per play this season.  The Wildcats put those numbers up against a group of defenses that allowed 29.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Arizona has a potent running game that racked-up 157 rushing yards or more in seven games this season.  Boise State allowed 156 rushing yards or more in five games this season, and they gave up 35.8 points per game when failing to stop their opponent’s running game.  Boise State’s defense was shredded on the road this season as they allowed 32.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Those poor defensive numbers came against a group of offenses that only averaged 27.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between Boise State and Arizona on Wednesday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Mississippi opened the season with seven straight wins before losing 10-7 in the last minute at LSU.  That loss lingered as the Rebels lost two of their next three games.  But Mississippi bounced back strong in their season finale which resulted in a 31-17 win over their rival Mississippi State.  That win gave the Rebels their confidence back, and with a month to prepare for TCU, we expect a big performance by Mississippi in this game.  The Rebels were excellent on both sides of the ball this season.  They averaged 30.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 25.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Mississippi’s defense was tremendous this season as they only gave up 13.8 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 29.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Rebels faced ten bowl teams this season, and they gave up just 16 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.     

TCU can’t be too happy that they are playing in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl.  The Horned Frogs were ranked #3 in the playoffs, but they got left out of the top 4 despite winning their season finale over Iowa State by a score of 55-3.  To make matters worse, this game is not even on New Year’s Day, and it comes with an early kick off.  TCU will likely be flat for this game, and that’s going to show on the defensive side of the ball.  Overall, the Horned Frogs only allowed 20.3 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  However, there are two areas in which they dropped significantly.  On the road, TCU’s defense allowed 26.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Against the seven bowl teams they faced, TCU allowed 24 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Those numbers clearly show the Horned Frogs’ defense was worse on the road against good competition.  TCU played five bowl teams over a stretch of six games and they gave up 36 points per game.  Mississippi also played the much tougher schedule, #6 versus #44, so the Rebels performed better against the tougher opponents.  The Big 12 has looked terrible while going 0-3 in bowl games so far, so we’ll take the points with the SEC-based Rebels in this early game on Wednesday afternoon.    

10* Play MISSISSIPPI (+).

Mississippi and TCU have played similar on offense this season.  The Rebels and Horned Frogs both play at a fast pace while hitting a lot of big plays, and that style often leads to high-scoring games, especially when the teams play each other.  Mississippi’s offense averaged 30.4 points on 443.5 yards of offense per game this season; they averaged 6.3 yards per play.  The Rebels ran for 150 yards or more seven times this season, and they averaged 38.4 points per game when doing so.  TCU’s defense allowed 150 rushing yards or more three times this season, and the Horned Frogs gave up 33, 61, and 30 points in those games.  Against seven bowl opponents this season, TCU gave up 24 points per game on 403 yards of offense.  The Horned Frogs were extremely vulnerable in the secondary as they allowed 7.6 yards per pass attempt in those games.

TCU has a potent offense that is averaging 46.8 points per game on 6.8 yards per play this season.  The Horned Frogs are well-balanced as they average 209.3 yards on the ground and 332.8 yards thru the air per game this season.  TCU’s offense also played well away from home as they averaged 45.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Mississippi does have a very good defense, but in their three losses this season, the Rebels allowed 25 points per game with two of those opponents scoring 30 points or more.  TCU has scored 30 points or more in all twelve of their games this season, so Mississippi is definitely facing the best offense they’ve seen all season.  We expect a high-scoring game between Mississippi and TCU on Wednesday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Louisville flew well under the radar all season.  The Cardinals come into this game at 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS.  Louisville has been strong despite instability at the quarterback position.  Starter Will Gardner was lost for the season, and freshman Reggie Bonnafon played well in his place before he got injured.  Kyle Bolin came in and also played well; both Bonnafon and Bolin are slated to play in this game against Georgia.  That gives Louisville a nice edge since Georgia does not have much game film to devise a solid game plan.  Louisville’s success this season has been because of their terrific defense that is only giving up 20.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  The Cardinals have put up those strong defensive numbers against offenses that are averaging 26 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Cardinals’ defense has actually played better away from home as they are only giving up 17 points per game on 4.3 yards per play on the road this season.  Louisville’s strong defense has allowed them to play close games as their three losses have come by a total of 19 points this season.           

Georgia also comes into this game with a 9-3 SU record.  The Bulldogs have obviously played the tougher schedule in the SEC, but they are definitely facing the toughest defense they’ve seen all season.  Overall, Georgia’s offense has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 26.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Bulldogs will take a big step-up in defensive class against Louisville in this game, especially since the Cardinals allow 6.4 points per game less than the opponents Georgia has faced.  The Bulldogs are without their longtime offensive coordinator Mike Bobo who left to take the head coaching job at Colorado State.  The Bulldogs’ offensive plays will be called by John Lilly who has never called plays before.  Georgia’s offense will also be facing their former defensive coordinator, Todd Grantham, who now holds the same position at Louisville.  The coaching match-ups definitely give Louisville a major edge in this game.  Georgia will also be without one of their best defensive players as Leonard Floyd is out due to an injury.  Reports out of Georgia’s camp say their defense is much weaker without Floyd because they have to run a different scheme, and it makes them extremely vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks.  Louisville QB Bonnafon is a tremendous runner, so his mobility gives the Cardinals another advantage.  We’ll take the points with Louisville in this game on Tuesday night.   

10* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Texas and Arkansas were bitter rivals back in the old Southwest Conference, and with this game being played in Houston, Texas, we expect a huge crowd and an intense ballgame.  Texas obviously holds the site edge with this game being played in their home state, so we can expect the Longhorns to bring their best effort.  Texas went just 6-6 in their first year under head coach Charlie Strong, but the team has taken on the personality of their coach.  The Longhorns are a physical bunch that relies on their defense to win games.  Overall, Texas is allowing just 23.2 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  Those strong defensive numbers have come against a slate of potent offenses that average 33.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Longhorns played eight bowl teams this season, and their defense only allowed 27 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.   

Arkansas went 6-6 in their second year under head coach Bret Bielema.  The Razorbacks got national attention late in the season when they beat LSU and Mississippi by a combined score of 47-0 in back-to-back weeks.  Like Texas, the Razorbacks win with their defense as they are only giving up 20.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Arkansas’ defense will face their first true dual threat quarterback this season as Texas’ Tyrone Swoops has rushed for 495 yards on the year.  Arkansas hasn’t had to worry about a mobile quarterback this season, but Swoops’ ability to make plays with his legs could very well be the determining factor in this game.  The posted total on this game is low at 44 which indicates a defensive struggle.  That makes the points extremely valuable, and since Texas has a lot of motivation for this game, we’ll take the Longhorns plus the points on Monday night.  

9* Play TEXAS (+).

Clemson quietly went 9-3 this season with their three losses coming against Georgia, Florida State, and Georgia Tech.  Those three teams are a combined 32-6 on the season, so the Tigers can’t be ashamed of those losses.  Clemson’s quarterback situation has been in and out with Deshaun Watson and Cole Stoudt sharing the starts.  Watson got hurt twice with his latest being a season-ending ACL injury.  Stoudt played late in the year, and now he has had a full month to prepare for this game against Oklahoma.  The Tigers’ offense will be much more efficient, especially since their strong running game will open up passing plays downfield.  Clemson has run for 146 yards or more six times this season, and they averaged 37.8 points per game when doing so.  Oklahoma’s defense allowed 148 rushing yards or more four times this season, and the Sooners gave up 37, 26, 31, and 48 points in those games while going 1-3 SU with the lone win coming by just 5 points.  Overall, Clemson averages 30.1 points on 409 yards of offense per game this season; they’ve eclipsed those averages five times this season.  

Oklahoma played in the Sugar Bowl last season, and the Sooners pulled off a major upset when they beat Alabama 45-31 as 16.5-point underdogs.  Oklahoma was a preseason Top 5 team that failed to live up to their lofty expectations after going just 8-4 this season.  Now they find themselves playing in the lowly Russell Athletic Bowl; they can’t be too thrilled about this game.  Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight and running back Samaje Perine are both coming back from injury, and they will face a strong Clemson defense that is only allowing 17.6 points per game on 4.0 yards per play this season.  Oklahoma hasn’t faced a defense like Clemson’s all season, and it also doesn’t help that the Tigers’ defensive coordinator is Brent Venables who held the same position for the Sooners for 12 seasons under Bob Stoops.  That’s a nice edge for Clemson, especially since they’ve had a month to prepare.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Clemson on Monday night.  

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

Clemson and Oklahoma have played similar on offense this season.  The Tigers and Sooners both play at a fast pace while hitting a lot of big plays, and that style often leads to high-scoring games, especially when the teams play each other.  Clemson’s offense averaged 30.1 points on 409 yards of offense per game this season; they’ve eclipsed those averages five times this season.  The Tigers ran for 146 yards or more six times this season, and they averaged 37.8 points per game when doing so.  Oklahoma’s defense allowed 148 rushing yards or more four times this season, and the Sooners gave up 37, 26, 31, and 48 points in those games.  Against eight bowl opponents this season, Oklahoma gave up 30 points per game on 417 yards of offense.  The Sooners were extremely vulnerable in the secondary as they allowed 7.6 yards per pass attempt while giving up 20 touchdown passes on the season.

Oklahoma has a potent offense that is averaging 38.9 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season.  The Sooners are well-balanced as they average 268.6 yards on the ground and 211.9 yards thru the air per game this season.  Oklahoma’s offense actually played better away from home as they averaged a whopping 43.7 points per game on 6.8 yards per play.  Head coach Bob Stoops has a history of scoring a lot of points in bowl games; the Sooners have scored 31 points or more in four of their last five bowl games.  Clemson does have a very good defense, but in their three losses this season, the Tigers gave up 45, 23, and 28 points.  Oklahoma has scored 30 points or more in eleven of their twelve games this season, so Clemson is definitely facing the best offense they’ve seen all season.  We expect a high-scoring game between Clemson and Oklahoma on Monday evening.

10* Play OVER the total.

Nebraska is a fragile team coming into this game against USC.  The Cornhuskers are extremely disappointed in the firing of head coach Bo Pelini, and his dismissal has caused friction between the players and the athletic department.  Nebraska will play tonight’s game under interim head coach Barney Cotton, and we do not expect the Cornhuskers to put much effort into this game.  Overall, Nebraska played a mediocre schedule this season, and once the competition got tougher, we saw some major chinks in the armor, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Nebraska gave up 30 points per game on 413 yards of offense against the eight bowl teams they faced this season.  USC will be the best offense Nebraska has faced this season, so the Cornhuskers’ defense will get lit-up in this game.  

USC went 8-4 during the regular season, and all four losses came against bowl teams.  They lost to Utah, and the Utes won their bowl game in a blowout; the other three teams have yet to play.  USC gets to play this game in their home state of California, and they will certainly have the crowd edge as San Diego is just over 100 miles from campus.  The Trojans are excited to play in this game, so we expect a big effort.  USC has a potent offense that is averaging 35.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 29.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Trojans also have a strong defense that allows just 23.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 31 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  USC is simply the better team on both sides of the ball, and since Nebraska is in a state of flux, we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Saturday night.   

9* Play USC (-).

Duke has a strong 9-3 record this season, but the Blue Devils played an extremely easy schedule.  In fact, Duke played the 81st schedule this season compared to Arizona State who played the 38th toughest schedule in the country this season.  Duke is playing in their third consecutive bowl game under head coach David Cutcliffe.  The Blue Devils are 0-2 in those games because their defense could not stop the opposing offenses; they gave up 48 points to Cincinnati in 2012 and last year they gave up 52 points to Texas A&M.  This season, Duke once again has a solid offense that is averaging 32.5 points per game, but a phony defense.  The Blue Devils have solid seasonal numbers on defense, but they’ve played an extremely weak group of offenses that only average 23.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Duke is taking a major step-up in offensive class against Arizona State in this game, and we expect the Blue Devils’ defense to get exposed.           

Arizona State also went 9-3 in the regular season, but the Sun Devils played in the much better conference.  Arizona State has a potent offense that is averaging 37 points per game this season.  The Sun Devils are well-balanced as they average 170.2 yards on the ground and 276.3 yards thru the air per game this season.  Arizona State’s offense played just as good away from home as they averaged 36.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Head coach Todd Graham has a history of blowing teams out in bowl games; 62-28 in 2012, 62-35 in 2010, 45-13 in 2008, and 63-7 in 2007.  Last year, Arizona State lost 37-23 to Texas Tech as 17-point favorites and that defeat has lingered with Graham and his team.  The Sun Devils are motivated, and since they are the superior team, we’ll lay the points with Arizona State in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

10* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

Duke and Arizona State have two offensive-minded coaches and two experienced quarterbacks that will result in a high-scoring shootout.  The Blue Devils’ offense averaged 32.5 points per game this season, and their recent bowl history suggests a lot of points in this game.  Duke is 0-2 over the last two years in bowl games because their defense could not stop the opposing offenses; they gave up 48 points to Cincinnati in 2012 and last year they gave up 52 points to Texas A&M.  The Blue Devils have solid seasonal numbers on defense, but they’ve played an extremely weak group of offenses that only average 23.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Against five bowl opponents, Duke gave up 31 points per game on 476 yards of offense this season.  Duke is taking a major step-up in offensive class against Arizona State in this game, and we expect the Blue Devils’ defense to get exposed.       

Arizona State has a potent offense that is averaging 37 points per game this season.  The Sun Devils are well-balanced as they average 170.2 yards on the ground and 276.3 yards thru the air per game this season.  Arizona State’s offense played just as good away from home as they averaged 36.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Head coach Todd Graham has a history of scoring a lot of points in bowl games; 62 points in 2012, 62 points in 2010, 45 points in 2008, and 63 points in 2007.  Last year, Arizona State only scored 23 points in a loss to Texas Tech, and that defeat has lingered with Graham and his team.  The Sun Devils’ defense allowed 29 points per game against the seven bowl teams they faced this season, so Duke’s offense will also be able to score some points in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Duke and Arizona State on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Rutgers and North Carolina are evenly matched, so this game should be close throughout and come right down to the wire.  The teams played similar tough schedules, Rutgers #47 and North Carolina #33, and their overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board.  The Scarlett Knights went 7-5 SU and a solid 8-4 ATS this season.  Two of their losses came to Ohio State and Wisconsin who played in the Big 10 title game while other losses came at Michigan State and at Nebraska.  Those four teams are simply superior to Rutgers; their other loss only came by 3 points against Penn State.  The Scarlett Knights’ offense is better than perceived as they averaged 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 5.4 yards per play.  Rutgers’ offense has a good shot at breaking out in this game against a Tar Heels’ defense that is one of the worst in the country.        

North Carolina went just 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS on the season.  All six of their losses did come against teams playing in bowl games, but five of those six losses came by 15 points or more with the average loss coming by 20.5 points per game.  North Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the country as they are giving up 38.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  The Tar Heels gave up 44 points per game away from home this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a group of offenses that averaged 31.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  North Carolina went 2-2 ATS as a favorite this season with their two wins coming by just 5 points apiece.  Overall, four of the Tar Heels’ five wins against FBS opponents only came by an average of 3.8 points per game with winning margins of 4, 5, 1, and 5 points.  We’ll take the points with Rutgers as this game comes right down to the wire.   

10* Play RUTGERS (+).

Rutgers and North Carolina are evenly matched, so this game should be a back and forth high-scoring shootout.  The Scarlett Knights’ offense is better than perceived.  They lost five games this season, but four of those losses came to Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nebraska.  Rutgers scored a total of 44 points in those four games.  If we eliminate those games against the superior opponents, Rutgers’ offense averaged 32.9 points per game.  Overall, the Scarlett Knights’ averaged 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 5.4 yards per play.  Rutgers’ offense has a good shot at breaking out in this game against a Tar Heels’ defense that is one of the worst in the country.        

North Carolina is giving up 38.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  The Tar Heels gave up 44 points per game away from home this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a group of offenses that averaged 31.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Against bowl opponents, North Carolina gave up 41 points per game on 516 yards of offense per game.  The Tar Heels allowed 5.2 yards per rush, 9.0 yards per pass attempt, and 6.7 yards per play overall.  While their defense is atrocious, North Carolina does have a good offense that averaged 34.2 points per game.  Their offense showed no dip in play against bowl opponents as they scored 33 points per game.  Rutgers’ defense gave up 36 points per game on 6.8 yards per play against the seven bowl teams they played this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between Rutgers and North Carolina on Friday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Fresno State and Rice both come into this game off losses, and since both teams are happy to be here, we expect a good effort from each team.  Fresno State had a losing record at 6-7, but their six wins qualified them for a bowl.  The Bulldogs’ offense was explosive at times this season.  If we eliminate their awful games against good teams like USC, Nebraska, and Boise State, the Bulldogs’ offense averaged 31.9 points per game.  Fresno State has a well-balanced offense as they are averaging 183.9 yards on the ground and 234.8 yards thru the air per game.  The Bulldogs will face a poor Rice defense that is allowing 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Those numbers are even worse on the road where they are giving up 37.7 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.    

Rice opened their season with three straight losses, but they regrouped and won seven of their final nine games of the season.  The Owls’ offense was terrific in those wins as they averaged 32.9 points per game.  Rice also has a well-balanced offense as they are averaging 170.9 yards on the ground and 223.6 yards thru the air per game.  The Owls threw for 8.2 yards per pass attempt this season, and they will have a lot of success throwing on a terrible Fresno State secondary that gave up 8.6 yards per pass attempt this season.  The Bulldogs’ defense was gashed all season as they gave up 32.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  We expect both passing offenses to have success as the Fresno State and Rice secondaries allowed a combined 53 touchdown passes this season.  Look for a high-scoring game between Fresno State and Rice in the Hawaii Bowl on Wednesday night.      

10* Play OVER the total.

Central Michigan and Western Kentucky both went 7-5 this season.  Both teams played extremely easy schedules, so this game in the Bahamas is a nice reward.  The Chippewas’ offense played much better away from home this season.  Central Michigan averaged 28 points per game on 5.9 yards per play on the road this season.  They put those numbers up against a collection of defenses that gave up just 5.7 yards per play.  The Chippewas scored 34 points or more in three of their six road games this season.  Central Michigan will score at will on a terrible Western Kentucky defense that is allowing 39.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  The Hilltoppers’ defense was even worse on the road where they gave up 48.2 points per game on a whopping 6.8 yards per play.  

Western Kentucky has a potent offense that plays at an extremely fast pace.  Overall this season, the Hilltoppers averaged 44 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  They put those strong numbers up against a slate of defensive opponents that are allowed 30.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Western Kentucky will face a Central Michigan defense that has faced a slew of weak offenses that only averaged 24.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Chippewas’ defense will face the best offense they’ve seen all season, and they won’t be able to stop the Hilltoppers from scoring 40 points or more in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Central Michigan and Western Kentucky in this game on Wednesday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Bowling Green is one of the worst teams to make a bowl game this season.  The Falcons come into this game in a tailspin as they’ve lost three straight games, and four of their last six games overall.  Bowling Green has been dreadful versus the point spread; they are just 2-7-1 ATS over their last ten games.  Normally, teams like Bowling Green present some value because of their recent results, but that’s not the case at all here.  My power ratings have South Alabama as a 3.5-point favorite, and since this line is currently less than 3, the oddsmakers did not inflate the spread at all despite Bowling Green’s poor current form.  The Falcons have underperformed on both sides of the ball this season.  Bowling Green is averaging just 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.8 yards per play.  On defense, the Falcons are giving up 33.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 27.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.         

South Alabama is playing in their first bowl game, and they get to stay in state which gives them a huge site advantage for this game.  The Jaguars are no world beaters by any stretch of the imagination, but they are much more motivated to play in this game than Bowling Green.  The Jaguars have played good defense this season, so they also hold a defensive edge over the Falcons.  Overall, South Alabama is giving up 25.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 30.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Jaguars’ defense has actually been better away from home where they are giving up 24.2 points per game on just 5.2 yards per play.  South Alabama is set for a big effort in what essentially is a home game, so we’ll lay the points with the Jaguars in this game on Saturday night.      

9* Play SOUTH ALABAMA (-).

Army and Navy will play for the 115th time on Saturday afternoon.  The game will be played in Baltimore on the home field of the Ravens.  Navy has won 12 consecutive games in this series, and they will likely win again as they are 15-point favorites.  This series has also seen the Under go a perfect 8-0 the last eight years, and we expect another low-scoring game this year.  Army and Navy both run the same option offense, and the familiarity makes it extremely difficult for the teams to score many points.  Army runs the ball on 85.5% of their offensive plays while Navy runs the ball on 81.7% of their offensive plays.  That means the clock will be running, shortening the game while limiting possessions. 

The Black Knights have played below average football on offense this season.  Army is only averaging 26.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play against defenses that allow 30.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Army’s offense will have trouble moving the ball consistently in this game, especially since Navy’s defense has played decently this season.  The Midshipmen are giving up 29.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play, but keep in mind they’ve played some explosive offenses like Ohio State, Western Kentucky, and Notre Dame.  Navy gave up 119 points in those three games, skewing their seasonal numbers.  Army and Navy simply know how to defend the triple-option offense, so we expect a low-scoring game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play UNDER the total.

Wisconsin is 10-2 on the season, but the Badgers have played an extremely weak schedule.  Their toughest game of the season came in the opener when they lost 28-24 to LSU.  The Tigers are not an elite team by any means, so you could argue that Ohio State will be Wisconsin’s toughest opponent this season, even though the Buckeyes do not have their starting quarterback for this game.  Wisconsin does have a potent offense that averages 37.5 points per game on 7.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 27.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Wisconsin’s offensive strength is running the football as they average 334.2 yards on the ground per game.  The Badgers will have success against an Ohio State run defense that is not in good current form.  The Buckeyes have allowed 179 rushing yards or more in three of their last four games.  Ohio State’s defense has given up 24 points or more in four straight games, and in eight of their twelve games this season.   

Ohio State will play this game with backup quarterback Cardale Jones after J.T. Barrett broke his ankle last week.  Jones has some experience, and we do not expect much drop-off in the Ohio State offense.  Overall this season, the Buckeyes are averaging 44.1 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  They’ve put those strong numbers up against a good slate of defensive opponents that are only allowing 26.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Buckeyes will face a Wisconsin defense that has faced a slew of weak offenses that are only averaging 25.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  The Badgers’ defense also comes into this game in poor current form as they’ve allowed 24 points or more in three straight games.  We expect a high-scoring game between Wisconsin and Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship on Saturday night.   

10* Play OVER the total.

Louisiana Tech comes into this game with an 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS record.  Two of their four SU losses came at Oklahoma and at Auburn, games they expected to lose.  So we can make the argument that Louisiana Tech is actually 8-2 in games against comparable teams, and both of those losses only came by 3 point apiece.  The Bulldogs have an explosive offense that is averaging 38.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Louisiana Tech is well-balanced as they are averaging 148 yards on the ground and 248 yards thru the air per game.  The Bulldogs will be the first potent offense that Marshall has faced all season, and considering how bad of a spot this is for Marshall, we expect the Louisiana Tech offense to score a lot of points in this game.     

Marshall comes in off a heartbreaking loss last week to Western Kentucky.  The Thundering Herd lost 67-66 in overtime, and it was also their first loss of the season.  That defeat most likely cost Marshall a New Year’s Day bowl game, so we expect the Thundering Herd to play with a hangover in this game.  Marshall trailed by 21 points before forcing overtime, then they led by 7 until Western Kentucky tied the game and won it on a 2-point conversion attempt.  The way they lost that game is extremely difficult to get over, and since Louisiana Tech has a high-scoring offense, this is a case of the worst opponent at the worst time for Marshall.  The Thundering Herd also have a potent offense that averages 46.7 points per game, but Louisiana Tech’s defense is holding opponents to 25.2 points per game on just 4.8 yards per play.  This is simply a terrible spot for Marshall, so we’ll take the points with Louisiana Tech in this early game on Saturday afternoon.     

9* Play LOUISIANA TECH (+).

Pittsburgh opened the season at 3-0, but the Panthers have gone just 2-6 since.  Even worse is the fact that six of those eight games were played on Pittsburgh’s home field.  The Panthers did not play a tough slate of opponents at all as the best team they faced during that span was Georgia Tech, a game they lost 56-28.  Pittsburgh’s offense has decent seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a group of defenses that are allowing 28 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Panthers will face a Miami defense that is allowing just 20.2 points per game on 4.1 yards per play at home this season.  The Panthers are obviously taking a huge step-up in defensive class with the Hurricanes allowing 7.8 points per game and 1.5 yards per play less than the opponents Pittsburgh has faced this season.

Miami comes into this game with just a 6-5 record, but the Hurricanes are significantly better than that record indicates.  Four of their five losses this season have come against Louisville, Nebraska, Georgia Tech, and Florida State who are a combined 37-8 on the season.  Miami has a terrific offense that is averaging 30.5 points per game on a whopping 6.9 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense has played below average football as they are giving up 25.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that are only averaging 24.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Miami’s offense only scored 13 points last week in a loss at Virginia, but that was a huge flat spot after blowing a 23-7 lead over Florida State the week before.  Miami will bounce back with a big effort in their final home game of the season, so we’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes as they win this game in blowout fashion on Saturday night. 

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Michigan State comes into this game with a solid 9-2 SU and ATS record.  The Spartans lost to Ohio State three weeks ago, but since that loss, they’ve steamrolled their last two opponents by a combined score of 82-18.  However, they played two overmatched teams that have terrible defenses.  Michigan State will finally play a competent opponent that also has a fantastic defense.  According to my strength of schedule ratings, the Spartans have played a very weak schedule.  The Spartans’ offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 30.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play as a group this season.  Michigan State is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against Penn State in this game.  In fact, the Spartans will face a Nittany Lions’ defense that is allowing 14.2 points per game and 1.8 yards per play less per game than the opponents Michigan State has faced this season.

Penn State opened the season at 4-0, but they’ve gone just 2-5 since.  However, they’ve been competitive as four of those five losses have come by 7 points or less.  Penn State has played outstanding defense this season.  The Nittany Lions are giving up just 16.2 points per game on 4.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging 26.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Penn State’s run defense has been tremendous as they give up just 81.9 yards per game on a minuscule 2.5 yards per rush.  Michigan State’s defense has been much worse on the road where they are giving up 27.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play compared to just 20.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play overall this season.  Penn State is set for a big effort in their final home game of the season, so we’ll take the big points with the Nittany Lions in this game on Saturday afternoon.      

9* Play PENN STATE (+).

Notre Dame comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Irish are just 1-4 SU and ATS over their last five games as their defense has completely fallen apart.  Since their 31-27 loss at Florida State, the Irish defense has given up 39, 55, 43, and 31 points.  Notre Dame allowed a total of 1,822 yards of offense in those games to non-explosive teams like Northwestern, Navy, and Louisville.  Notre Dame’s offense has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Irish will face a USC defense that is only allowing 5.0 yards per play on their home field this season.  Notre Dame has played in seven consecutive emotional games, including last week’s 31-28 home loss to Louisville after missing a chip shot field goal that would have sent the game to overtime.  The Irish now take to the road to face a hungry team off a loss and looking for revenge.

USC was embarrassed last week by UCLA in a 38-20 loss.  The Trojans played one of their worst games of the season, especially on offense.  The Trojans had just 276 yards of total offense in that game despite averaging 33.8 points per game on 441.5 yards per game while gaining 5.9 yards per play this season.  USC’s offense will bounce back with a much better performance in this game, especially since they are averaging 43 points per game on 6.3 yards per play at home this season.  Notre Dame’s defense has been terrible on the road all season as they are giving up 30.8 points per game away from home.  The Trojans are also looking to break their 2-game losing streak to the Irish; USC had won 7 of the prior 8 meetings against Notre Dame.  The Trojans played a home game off a road loss earlier this season, and they won that game 35-10.  We expect a similar result here, so we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Saturday afternoon.    

9* Play USC (-).

Stanford has been up and down all season.  The Cardinal come into this game with just a 6-5 record, including a 2-3 mark on the road.  Stanford hasn’t won back-to-back games since September; they beat California 38-17 last week despite giving up 410 yards of total offense.  Stanford’s defense has been their calling card this season, but they’ve been leaky as of late.  The Cardinal have allowed 82 points and 1,182 yards over their last three games on an average of 5.4 yards per play.  Stanford’s offense has been below average this season while scoring just 25.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Those poor numbers have come against defenses allowing an average of 31.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Stanford’s offense has been even worse on the road where they are only averaging 19.6 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.          

UCLA is finally playing up to their preseason expectations.  The Bruins are 9-2 overall, winning five consecutive games after losing back-to-back games to open October.  UCLA is off a big 38-20 win over USC last week, and we expect them to carry momentum into this game.  The Bruins have a fantastic offense that is averaging 35 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses giving up 26.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  UCLA has put-up 406 yards of offense or more in ten of their eleven games this season.  The Bruins are well-balanced as they run for 196 yards and throw for 299 yards per game.  UCLA has also played strong defense at home this season, holding their opponents to just 4.9 yards per play.  The Bruins will contain the weak Stanford offense in this game, especially since the Cardinal will be without their top receiver, Ty Montgomery, who is out with a shoulder injury.  Stanford is clearly down this season, and this is UCLA’s best chance to beat the Cardinal for the first time in six years.  We’ll lay the points with the Bruins in this game on Friday afternoon.      

10* Play UCLA (-).

Arizona State and Arizona is a heated rivalry game that has been dominated by the Sun Devils in recent years.  Arizona State has won this game two straight years, but we expect that mini streak to end this afternoon.  The Sun Devils are 9-2 on the season, and they’ve gone 2-1 in their last three games despite getting out-yarded by their opponents in all three games.  Arizona State has allowed 31, 35, and 31 points in their last three games while giving up 487, 498, and 622 yards of offense in those games.  The Sun Devils had held six of their previous eight opponents to 24 points or less, so it’s clear Arizona State’s play has declined despite winning.  Overall, Arizona State’s defense is allowing 5.7 yards per play this season versus offenses that are also averaging 5.7 yards per play.  The Sun Devils are vulnerable on the ground; they’ve allowed 203 rushing yards or more in five games this season.  Arizona averages 195.7 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush, so the Sun Devils’ defense will be gouged on the ground in this game.    

Arizona also comes into this game with a 9-2 record.  The Wildcats have a strong offense that is averaging 36.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Arizona has terrific balance on offense as they also pass for 299 yards per game.  The Wildcats are also in much better defensive form than the Sun Devils.  Arizona has held their last four opponents to 26 points or less, including two opponents to 17 points or less.  They’ve limited those opponents to just 5.2 yards per play.  Arizona has taken good care of the ball all season as they have 1 turnover or less in seven of their eleven games, and 2 turnovers or less in ten of their eleven games this season.  Arizona QB Anu Solomon re-injured his ankle in last week’s 42-10 win at Utah, and he’s questionable to play here.  But even if he doesn’t, Jesse Scroggins is a senior who is plenty capable of running the Arizona offense with efficiency.  Arizona is in a good spot to beat their rival, and since they are playing the better football right now, we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Friday afternoon.     

9* Play ARIZONA (-).

We lost a Best Bet on Miami Florida last week after they blew a 23-7 lead at home versus Florida State.  The Hurricanes were in a tremendous scheduling spot for that game as they came in off a bye.  That was Miami’s biggest game of the season, and this is a major letdown spot for the Hurricanes after losing 30-26 when Florida State scored the winning touchdown with three minutes left to play.  Miami must take to the road and lay points into a Virginia team they beat 45-26 last season.  The Hurricanes have little interest in this game, and these comments by head coach Al Golden do nothing but support that opinion.  “Our kids prepared like they were going to win all week and had a confidence all week, so that’s not going to be lost in this.  They’re all disappointed.  We’re crushed from it.”

Virginia is catching Miami at the perfect time.  The Cavaliers come into this game fresh off a bye week, and since this is their final home game of the season, we expect Virginia to play one of their best games of the year.  This game was originally scheduled for 12 pm (Noon) ET, but has been moved to 7 pm ET for national TV which means the temperature will be in the mid-30's at kickoff and definitely uncomfortable for the players from sunny and warm southern Florida.  Virginia's head coach Mike London is fighting to keep his job and the Cavaliers are looking for another win to inch closer to becoming bowl eligible, so they have plenty of motivation.  Virginia has a good defense that is only giving up 25.2 points per game on 5.0 yards per play against offenses that average 30.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Virginia’s defense has been even better at home where they only allow 20.3 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  This is a great spot for Virginia, and a lousy one for Miami, so we’ll take the home underdog in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play VIRGINIA (+).

Louisville has gone under the radar all season.  The Cardinals come into this game at 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.  Louisville has been strong despite instability at the quarterback position.  Starter Will Gardner has been on and off the field with injuries; he’s now out for the remainder of the year.  Freshman Reggie Bonnafon has started a pair of games, and he’s played in a handful of others so he has plenty of experience.  Louisville’s success this season has been because of their terrific defense that is only giving up 17.8 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.  The Cardinals have put up those strong defensive numbers against offenses that are averaging 25.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Louisville’s strong defense has allowed them to play close games as their three losses have come by a total of 19 points this season.           

Notre Dame comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Irish are just 1-3 SU and ATS over their last four games as their defense has completely fallen apart.  Since their 31-27 loss at Florida State, the Irish defense has given up 39, 55, and 43 points.  Notre Dame allowed a total of 1,413 yards of offense in those games to non-explosive teams like Northwestern and Navy.  Notre Dame’s offense has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 26.1 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Irish will take a big step-up in defensive class against Louisville in this game, especially since the Cardinals allow 8.3 points per game less than the opponents Notre Dame has faced.  Quarterback Everett Golson is playing with a sprained joint in his throwing shoulder, and that can’t be good when going against a strong defense.  Louisville comes into this game fresh off their bye while Notre Dame has played in six consecutive emotional games.  We’ll take the points in this game on Saturday afternoon.   

9* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Arizona comes into this game with an 8-2 record.  The Wildcats’ two losses have come against USC by 2 points (28-26) and UCLA by 10 points (17-7).  Arizona is an ugly 3-7 ATS this season, but they’ve only been underdogs in two games, winning 31-24 outright at Oregon and failing to cover in their UCLA loss.  Arizona will now be an underdog to a Utah team that has only been favored in four of their ten games this season.  Arizona has a strong offense that is averaging 35.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Wildcats have terrific balance on offense as they run for 186 yards and pass for 307 yards per game.  Arizona has also taken good care of the ball all season as they have 1 turnover or less in seven of their ten games, and 2 turnovers or less in nine of their ten games this season.    

Utah is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game against Arizona.  The Utes come in off seven consecutive emotional games, including last week’s overtime win at Stanford as 10-point underdogs.  Utah’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 5.1 yards per play against defenses that allow 5.5 yards per play.  Utah’s offense ranks #73 in efficiency metrics despite playing a collection of weak defenses that are giving up 29 points per game.  To compare, Arizona’s offense is ranked #37 in efficiency metrics.  Utah’s defense has allowed 390 yards or more in five of their ten games, and a team’s defense suffers the most when playing in a letdown spot.  Arizona handled Utah 35-24 last season, and since these teams are comparable to last year’s teams, there’s no reason the Wildcats can’t beat the Utes once again.  Utah’s four conference wins this season have all come by 6 points or less, including three wins by 3 points or less.  In a game that comes right down to the wire, we’ll take Arizona plus the points on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play ARIZONA (+).

Kansas State and West Virginia both come into this game off losses.  The teams lost their recent games due to a lack of offense; Kansas State scored just 20 points while West Virginia scored just 16 points.  Both teams have had 12 days to get ready for this game, so most of their preparation was on the offensive side of the ball.  Kansas State has a strong rushing attack that averages 157 yards per game.  The Wildcats will be facing a poor West Virginia rush defense that allows 182 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  The Mountaineers have allowed 193, 224, and 227 rushing yards in their last three games.  In games in which they’ve allowed 150 rushing yards or more this season, the Mountaineers have given up 33, 37, 45, 34, 10, 31, and 33 points.  Overall, Kansas State’s offense is averaging 36.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.6 yards per play. 

West Virginia also has a very good offense this season.  The Mountaineers are averaging 34.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 29 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Kansas State’s defense has been terrible on the road this season; they’ve allowed 28 points or more in every away game.  Overall, the Wildcats are giving up 33 points per game on 6.1 points per play on the road this season.  Kansas State has allowed 1,086 total yards in their last two road games.  We expect a high-scoring game between Kansas State and West Virginia on Thursday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Tuesday, Nov. 18

NCAA Football

No official NCAAF play tonight, but I do have a light TV opinion below.

(1% opinion)  OHIO +2.5 (vs. Northern Illinois) - 8:00 pm ET (ESPNU) #104

Northern Illinois is having another solid season; the Huskies come into this game with an 8-2 record.  Despite the strong record, Northern Illinois has actually underperformed on both sides of the ball this season.  The Huskies have faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Huskies are averaging 31.5 points per game, but just 5.8 yards per play against those opponents.  Northern Illinois’ defense is allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.1 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.    

Ohio is just 5-5 on the season, but the Bobcats have actually played better than their record indicates, especially since their best players have missed games with injuries.  The Bobcats have quarterback Derrius Vick and running back A.J. Ouellette back on the field and healthy.  Those two guys make Ohio’s offense much better, and since Ohio comes in off a bye, we expect Vick and Ouellette to have big games tonight.  The Bobcats’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are giving up just 21.6 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 28.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  This is a huge game for Ohio as a win makes them bowl eligible.  We’ll take the points with the rested and motivated home underdog in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play OHIO (+).

LSU comes into this game off a heartbreaking 20-13 overtime loss to Alabama.  That was a huge game for the Tigers as they were playing themselves into the 4-team playoff discussion and a win would have vaulted them in the rankings.  LSU went into that game off their bye week, so we know they put everything they had into it.  Now they must take to the road and play an Arkansas team they’ve beaten the last three years.  The Razorbacks are not an opponent LSU respects, and since they are in a huge letdown spot, this is an extremely dangerous game for the Tigers.  Overall, LSU has strong seasonal numbers on defense.  But their main weakness this season has been run defense; they allow 154 yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush.  The Tigers have given up 268 rushing yards or more in three games this season, and they will face one of the best rushing attacks in college football in this game. 

Arkansas is significantly better this season than they were last year.  Head coach Bret Bielema was installing his system last year and the Razorbacks slogged thru an ugly 3-9 season.  Arkansas already has more wins this season as they come into this game with a 4-5 record; their five losses have come against Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi State who are a combined 38-8 on the season.  The Razorbacks’ offense is averaging 35.9 points per game and 6.2 yards per play versus opponents allowing 30.1 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Arkansas has a dynamite running game this is averaging 248.2 yards per game on a whopping 5.7 yards per rush.  Arkansas’ defense has played above average this season.  The Razorbacks are giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus opponents averaging 32.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Arkansas is coming into this game off their bye, and since they are catching LSU at the perfect time, we’ll back the Razorbacks on Saturday night.

9* Play ARKANSAS (-).

Florida State comes into this game on a 25-game winning streak, but we expect that to come to an end.  The Seminoles have been shaky this season, and they are basically escaping their games with wins.  They have not been nearly as dominant as they were last season, and they are just 2-6 ATS this season despite playing an extremely weak schedule.  Florida State’s defense has been leaky all season, and in fact, they’ve allowed 407 yards or more in five of their nine games this season.  Over their last four games, the Seminoles have allowed 98 points and 1,627 yards of total offense.  Two of those games came against terrible offenses as Syracuse ranks 97th and Virginia ranks 66th in offensive efficiency.  Florida State will be facing a Miami offense that ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, so the Seminoles’ problems are only going to be magnified in this game. 

Miami comes into this game with a 6-3 record, but the Hurricanes are significantly better than that record indicates.  Their three losses this season have come against Louisville, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech who are a combined 23-6 on the season.  Miami has a terrific offense that is averaging 33 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  The Hurricanes have put up those numbers against a strong collection of defenses that are only allowing 27 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Miami runs for 199.3 yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush; Florida State has allowed 156 rushing yards or more in three of their last four games.  The Hurricanes also have a solid defense that is only giving up 21.9 points per game on 4.4 yards per play this season versus opponents averaging 31.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Miami’s defense has been even better at home where they give up just 18.2 points per game on 3.7 yards per play.  Miami is fresh off their bye, and since Florida State looks ripe for the picking, we’ll take the Hurricanes plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play MIAMI, FL (+).

We cashed a Best Bet winner going against Auburn last week, and we’ll come right back and play against the Tigers once again this week.  Auburn lost outright as 23.5-point home favorites to Texas A&M, and that loss basically eliminated them from the 4-team playoff picture.  And for a team that played in the title game last season, this is the ultimate flat spot for Auburn.  The Tigers are still 7-2 SU on the season, but they are just 4-5 ATS.  Prior to last week’s 41-38 loss, Auburn played in four consecutive highly emotional games.  The Tigers are drained, and last week’s game basically emptied their tank.  Over their last four games, the Auburn defense has given up a total of 145 points and 1,943 yards of total offense.  And those numbers won’t get any better in this game since Georgia has a potent offense that can take advantage of Auburn’s defense that is in poor current form.  

Georgia bounced back strong last week after their mind-boggling 38-20 loss to Florida the week before.  The Bulldogs waxed an inferior Kentucky team 63-31 while racking up 559 yards of total offense, including 305 yards on the ground.  Georgia’s rushing game is strong as they average 256.2 yards per game on a whopping 6.2 yards per rush.  Auburn has allowed 6.7 yards per rush over their last three games, so Georgia will run at will, especially since super running back Todd Gurley is slated to return.  Overall, Georgia has a potent offense that is averaging 43 points per game on 6.8 yards per play against defenses that allow 26.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Bulldogs also own the better defense as they give up just 4.9 yards per play compared to Auburn who allows 5.5 yards per play.  We’ll lay the points with Georgia in this game on Saturday night.      

9* Play GEORGIA (-).

Utah is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game against Stanford.  The Utes come off six consecutive emotional games, and it’s hard to imagine them having much left for this game.  Utah’s big game was at home last week against Oregon, and the game turned on one play.  Utah was about to take a 14-0 lead when a wide receive made a huge mental blunder and dropped the ball before getting into the end zone.  That play turned into a 100-yard fumble return for Oregon.  The Utes then trailed by 17 points before rallying back in the fourth quarter to cut Oregon’s lead to just 3 points before the Ducks scored the last 21 points of the game.  That loss will have Utah playing with a hangover in this game.  The Utes’ offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 5.2 yards per play against defenses that allow 5.7 yards per play.  Utah doesn’t figure to generate much offense in this game, especially since they are playing one of the best defenses in college football. 

Stanford also comes into this game off a loss to Oregon, but that game was on the road and it came two weeks ago.  The Cardinal come into this game off their bye, so they will be the much fresher team, especially with Utah off six straight close games.  Stanford is also playing with revenge after losing 27-21 in Utah last season as 7.5-point road favorites.  Stanford has shown a strong ability to bounce back off a loss this season.  In fact, the Cardinal are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in that role, winning by an average of 25.3 points per game.  Stanford has a terrific defense that is only allowing 16.1 points per game on 4.1 yards per play.  Those strong numbers have come against offenses that averaging 31 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Stanford is in a tremendous spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Cardinal in this game on Saturday. 

9* Play STANFORD (-).

Virginia Tech opened the season at 4-2, but things have gone sour lately as they’ve lost three straight games.  The Hokies comes into this game off their bye, and the week off came at the perfect time.  This is also a big revenge game for Virginia Tech after the Hokies lost 13-10 at home to Duke as 12-point favorites last season.  That game was a low-scoring defensive struggle, and we expect this game to play out the same way.  Virginia Tech has a terrific defense that is only giving up 22.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Hokies have put up those strong defensive numbers against offenses that are averaging 32.4 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Virginia Tech’s strong defense has allowed them to play close games as four of their five losses this season have come by 7 points or less, including three losses by 5 points or less.            

Duke comes into this game with an impressive 8-1 record on the season.  However, the Blue Devils have played an extremely weak schedule, and they’ve simply been winning with smoke and mirrors.  Duke’s offense has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 30.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Despite the poor opposition, Duke is only averaging 5.6 yards per play.  The Blue Devils are taking a big step-up in defensive class against Virginia Tech in this game, especially since the Hokies allow 7.5 points per game less than the opponents they’ve faced.  Duke has been out-gained in four of their last five games despite holding a defensive advantage against those opponents.  Virginia Tech holds the edge in this game, and since they are fresh off their bye and playing with revenge, we’ll take the points in this early game on Saturday afternoon.   

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

California has played in a slew of high-scoring games this season, and it looks like another shootout against USC tonight.  The Golden Bears have a solid offense that is averaging 41.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play this season.  They’ve put those numbers up against defenses that are allowing just 32.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  However, California has a terrible defense that is giving up 39.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging only 30 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

USC also has a very good offense this season, and they will score at will on that weak California defense.  The Trojans are averaging 34.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up just 28.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  USC has strong seasonal defensive numbers, but the Trojans have faced a slew of weak offenses that possess run-based attacks.  Despite that, USC has still given up 24 points or more in five games this season.  Look for a high-scoring game between California and USC on Thursday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

This is a rematch from last season’s Big 10 title game that Michigan State won 34-24 as 5.5-point underdogs.  Ohio State has not forgotten that defeat, and this is a game they’ve had circled.  The Buckeyes have been on a tear since losing to Virginia Tech back in Week 2.  Ohio State is a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since that loss.  Even with the loss to the Hokies, Ohio State has out-gained all eight of their opponents this season.  Overall, the Buckeyes are averaging 45.6 points per game and 6.6 yards per play versus opponents allowing 28 points per game and 5.7 yards per play.  Ohio State has a dynamite running game this is averaging 259.2 yards per game on a whopping 5.3 yards per rush.  The Buckeyes also have a strong defense that is only allowing 19.9 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.   

Michigan State is also 7-1 on the season, but according to my strength of schedule ratings, the Spartans have played a very weak schedule.  The Spartans’ offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 30.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play as a group this season.  Michigan State is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against Ohio State in this game.  In fact, the Spartans will face a Buckeyes’ defense that is allowing 10.9 points per game and 1.4 yards per play less per game than the opponents Michigan State has faced this season.  The Spartans have only faced two strong opponents this season; they lost 46-27 at Oregon and they beat Nebraska 27-22 at home.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Ohio State on Saturday night.  

10* Play OHIO STATE (+).

West Virginia is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game against Texas.  The Mountaineers had the TCU game won last week until they gave up the game-winning field goal as time expired.  West Virginia will play this game with a hangover, especially since they are now on the road against an unranked team.  West Virginia has played in seven consecutive highly emotional games, so they are due to play a clunker.  The Mountaineers’ offense has been productive this season, but they’ve also played a mediocre slate of opposing defenses that are allowing 29.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play as a group.  West Virginia’s offense is taking a big step-up in class against the Texas defense; the Longhorns are allowing 23.1 points per game on 4.6 yards per play to opponents averaging 32.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Texas also has a terrific pass defense that permits just 5.6 yards per pass attempt against opponents averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt.

Texas returns home off back-to-back road games, and the Longhorns will be playing just their third home game since September 6th.  That quirky scheduling situation will ensure Texas brings their best effort in front of their home fans, especially since they are hosting a ranked opponent.  Texas is off a 34-13 win at Texas Tech last week, so they also come into this game with good momentum.  The Longhorns’ offense also played their best game of the season as they put up 241 yards on the ground and 228 yards thru the air.  West Virginia’s rush defense is poor, and they’ve allowed 194 yards or more on the ground in five games this season, including three of their last four games.  Texas has proven they can run the ball effectively, and the Longhorns are 3-1 SU when they run for 150 yards or more in a game this season.  Texas is a live underdog, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday.  

9* Play TEXAS (+).

Texas A&M was slated to regress this season, but after their season-opening 52-28 win over South Carolina was followed by four more wins, the Aggies became overvalued.  Since their 5-0 start, Texas A&M has gone just 1-3 over their last four games.  And because of that, they’ve now become undervalued.  The Aggies own just one ugly loss this season, and that’s their 59-0 shutout at Alabama; Texas A&M was only a 14-point underdog in that game.  Their other two losses came by 17 and 15 points, and both of those results would be good enough to cover the inflated spread in this game.  Texas A&M has an explosive offense that is averaging 36.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  That high-scoring offense gives the Aggies plenty of backdoor potential should they need it.     

Auburn is 7-1 SU on the season, but the Tigers are just 4-4 ATS.  Auburn has failed to cover as double digit favorites twice this season, and this game against Texas A&M is not an ideal spot for the Tigers to be laying over three touchdowns.  Auburn has played in four consecutive highly emotional games, and with a big game against Georgia on deck, this is a huge flat spot for the Tigers.  Last week, Auburn played in a high-scoring, back and forth game at Mississippi that the Tigers won 35-31 after the Rebels fumbled the game winning touchdown going into the end zone.  Over their last three games, the Auburn defense has given up a total of 104 points and 1,490 yards of total offense.  And as mentioned above, Texas A&M has a potent offense that can take advantage of Auburn’s defense that is in poor current form.  This is simply a terrible spot for Auburn, so we’ll take the big points with Texas A&M in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play TEXAS A&M (+).

Baylor is having another solid season as the Bears come into this game with a 7-1 record.  However, Baylor has played an extremely weak schedule, and in fact, their strength of schedule is the worst of any team ranked in the Top 25 of my power ratings.  Baylor’s toughest opponent to date was TCU, and the Bears trailed by 21 points on their home field with 11 minutes left to play in that game.  Granted, they came back and won the game 61-58, but it was a fluky result considering Baylor lost 41-28 at West Virginia the following week.  Baylor has good seasonal stats on both sides of the ball, but remember, they’ve played an easy slate of opponents.  Baylor’s defense was exposed when TCU and West Virginia combined to score 99 points on 941 yards of offense.  The Bears are taking a major step-up in class for this game in Oklahoma, and Baylor will be facing their toughest opponent of the season.      

Oklahoma looked like the best team in the country early on this season.  The Sooners won their first four games by double digit margins before losing two of their next three games.  Oklahoma lost at TCU and lost at home to Kansas State in a game they out-yarded the Wildcats 533-385.  The Sooners really have no shame in those losses, and in fact, they should have won both games.  Oklahoma comes in off a 59-14 blowout win over Iowa State, so they come into this game with a lot of momentum.  The Sooners have had this Baylor game circled in red after getting embarrassed 41-12 by the Bears last season.  Oklahoma has played a tough schedule this season, but the Sooners still have impressive numbers on both sides of the ball.  The Sooners’ offense is averaging 41.5 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus opponents allowing 27.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Oklahoma’s defense is only allowing 19 points per game on 4.8 yards per play at home this season.  Oklahoma is playing with legitimate revenge, and since they are the better team on both sides of the ball, we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday.

9* Play OKLAHOMA (-).

Tennessee has played a brutal schedule this season.  The Vols have lost at Oklahoma, at Georgia, and at Mississippi while also losing at home to Florida and Alabama.  Not many teams would survive that gauntlet, so we’re willing to forgive Tennessee for their poor 3-5 record.  The Vols scored just 23 total points in their last two games, but Mississippi has the #2 defense and Alabama has the #6 defense when rated by efficiency.  Tennessee is taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game against South Carolina as the Gamecocks rank #119 in defensive efficiency this season.  The Vols’ offense will breakout in this game, just like all of South Carolina’s opponents have done this season.  The Gamecocks are giving up 32.7 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  Despite playing a tough slate of defensive opponents, Tennessee’s offense is averaging 23.9 points per game versus teams giving up just 21.6 points per game.  

South Carolina comes into this game in a terrible situational spot.  The Gamecocks put everything they had into last week’s game against Auburn, but they came up just short in a 42-35 loss.  South Carolina will play this game with a hangover, and since they already own a terrible defense, the letdown will be even greater.  The Gamecocks have underperformed all season, especially in conference play where they own a poor 2-4 SU and ATS record.  South Carolina is a woeful 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season, and there’s no reason to expect them to cover in this game.  Tennessee has a solid defense that is giving up just 22.9 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus opponents averaging 31.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  In a game that comes right down to the wire, we’ll take the points with the road underdog in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play TENNESSEE (+).

Arkansas is significantly better this season than they were last year.  Head coach Bret Bielema was installing his system last year and the Razorbacks slogged thru an ugly 3-9 season.  Arkansas already has more wins this season as they come into this game with a 4-4 record; their four losses have come against Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Georgia who are a combined 24-6 on the season.  Granted, they are now playing the #1 team in the country who owns a 7-0 record, but Mississippi State is lower in my power ratings than three of the teams mentioned above.  So Arkansas has already played better teams than Mississippi State despite what the national rankings say.  The Razorbacks’ offense is averaging 39.1 points per game and 6.4 yards per play versus opponents allowing 30.7 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Arkansas has a dynamite running game this is averaging 258.9 yards per game on a whopping 5.9 yards per rush.     

Mississippi State won 45-31 in Kentucky last week, but the Bulldogs went into that game off their bye week.  Kentucky rolled up 502 of yards of offense on Mississippi State in that game despite rushing for only 103 total yards.  The Bulldogs’ defense will be pounded on the ground in this game by Arkansas, and that alone will keep the Razorbacks in this game from start to finish.  Arkansas’ defense has played above average this season.  The Razorbacks are giving up 25.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 32.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Mississippi State is only 2-2 ATS as a double digit favorite this season, including 0-1 ATS in SEC play.  The Bulldogs are virtually maxed out in the pointspread, and there’s a tax attached to them because of their #1 ranking.  We’ll take the generous points with Arkansas in this game on Saturday night.   

9* Play ARKANSAS (+).

TCU is 6-1 SU and a perfect 7-0 ATS this season, and with a short line, they look like a tough team to go against.  But TCU is simply in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game.  The Horned Frogs lost their first game of the season three weeks at Baylor after blowing a 21-point lead with 11 minutes left to play in the game.  The Horned Frogs were off an emotional, high-scoring home underdog win over Oklahoma the week before.  Off those games, TCU then steamrolled Oklahoma State 42-9 and last week they scored an eye-popping 82 points on 785 yards of total offense.  TCU has no chance in matching that effort, especially since they have to play this game on the road in West Virginia.  The Horned Frogs have faced a slew of poor defensive teams that give up 33.5 points per game this season.  TCU is now facing a strong West Virginia defense that is only giving up 21.5 points per game on 4.2 yards per play at home this season.  

West Virginia is much improved this season.  The Mountaineers went just 4-8 last season, but they come into this game at 6-2 SU with their two losses coming to Alabama and Oklahoma.  The Mountaineers were impressive in both defeats as they only lost 33-23 to Alabama and 45-33 to Oklahoma.  The Mountaineers have a strong offense with Clint Trickett at quarterback; they average 36.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  TCU has strong seasonal defense numbers, but they’ve played just two road games all year and one good opponent on the road; they gave up 61 points and 782 yards of offense to Baylor.  West Virginia has a strong pass defense, and that’s a key ingredient to have when facing TCU.  The Mountaineers are only allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt to opponents averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt.  West Virginia is a live underdog, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday.  

9* Play WEST VIRGINIA (+).

North Carolina beat us last week when they somehow won 28-27 in Virginia.  The Tar Heels were dominated in the stats, and they only got into the red zone one time all game.  Their backup quarterback threw the winning touchdown pass after Virginia threw an interception in North Carolina territory when leading 27-21.  The Tar Heels got a phony win, and that game came after back-to-back high-scoring games that were decided on the game’s final plays.  So in three consecutive weeks, North Carolina has been involved in games that came down to the final few seconds.  North Carolina must now play back-to-back road games with this also being their third road game in four weeks and their fifth road game in seven weeks.  North Carolina has to be gassed, and their fatigue will be even more profound in the heat and humidity of South Florida, especially since Miami will be the fresher team after playing last Thursday night. 

Miami comes into this game with a 5-3 record, but the Hurricanes are significantly better than that record indicates.  Their three losses this season have come against Louisville, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech who are a combined 19-5 on the season.  Miami has a terrific offense that is averaging 31.2 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  The Hurricanes have put up those numbers against a strong collection of defenses that are only allowing 24.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  North Carolina has an atrocious defense that is allowing 41.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Hurricanes also have a solid defense that is only giving up 22.1 points per game on 4.5 yards per play this season versus opponents averaging 30.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Miami’s defense has been even better at home where they give up just 17.7 points per game on 3.7 yards per play.  We’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Northwestern and Iowa both come into this game off their bye week, so we can expect a game played true to form, especially since both teams are coming off losses in their last game.  Both teams are built the same way with conservative coaches that prefer to play ball control and win with their defense.  In all likelihood, this is going to be a low-scoring game making the points extremely valuable.  Northwestern is just 3-4 on the season, but they’ve played a much tougher schedule than it appears, and in fact, they’ve played a tougher schedule than Iowa.  The Wildcats’ defense has been fantastic this season as they are only allowing 20.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 29.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Iowa’s offense has unperformed all season; they only average 5.1 yards per play versus opponents allowing 5.5 yards per play. 

Iowa comes into this game with an impressive 5-2 record, but they beat nothing to get that record.  The Hawkeyes own wins over Northern Iowa, Ball State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, and Indiana.  Despite the weak competition, Iowa’s average win has only come by 9.2 points per game with three of their wins coming by 8 points or less.  Iowa’s weak offense, as noted above, is why they can’t win by margin.  The Hawkeyes have faced a slew of weak defenses that are allowing 29.9 points per game.  Iowa is taking a big step-up in defensive class against Northwestern in this game, so they will struggle to move the ball with any type of consistency.  In what projects to be a low-scoring game, we’ll take the points with Northwestern in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

Ohio State comes into this game with a solid 5-1 SU and ATS record.  The Buckeyes lost their second game of the season to Virginia Tech, but since that loss, they’ve steamrolled their opponents by a combined score of 224-69.  Ohio State scored 50 points or more in all four of those games.  However, they played four overmatched teams that have terrible defenses.  Ohio State will finally play a competent opponent that also has a fantastic defense.  The Buckeyes have faced a group of defenses that are allowing 27.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Those same teams also have awful run defenses that allow opponents to average 193.8 yards per game on the ground on 4.7 yards per rush.  Ohio State has cruised in their last four games, but the competition gets a lot tougher this week in Happy Valley.   

Penn State opened the season at 4-0, but they’ve lost their last two games.  The good thing for head coach James Franklin and his Nittany Lions is they come into this game off their bye week.  Penn State was able to regroup and get back to the things that were working well when their season began with four straight wins.  Penn State has played outstanding defense this season.  The Nittany Lions are giving up just 15.2 points per game on 4.5 yards per play versus opponents averaging 24.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Penn State’s run defense has been tremendous as they give up just 60.8 yards per game on a minuscule 2.0 yards per rush.  Ohio State is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against Penn State in this game as the Buckeyes are facing a Penn State defense that is allowing 12.7 points per game and 1.4 yards per play less per game than the opponents Ohio State has faced this season.  Penn State remembers last year’s 49 point (63-14) loss at Ohio State, and since they’ve had two weeks to prepare, we’ll take the big points with the Nittany Lions in this game on Saturday night.      

10* Play PENN STATE (+).

Mississippi is every bit as good as their 7-0 record indicates.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and their record is not a shocker at all.  Mississippi’s defense has been outstanding this season.  The Rebels are giving up just 10.6 points per game versus opponents that average 30.5 points per game.  Mississippi allows just 4.2 yards per play versus opponents that average 5.8 yards per play.  LSU has not faced a defense remotely close to Mississippi’s as the Tigers’ opponents are allowing 28 points per game on 5.5 yards per play as a group this season.   

LSU is 6-2 this season, but the Tigers have beat absolutely nothing.  Their two losses have come against Mississippi State and Auburn by a combined score of 75-36.  Mississippi is better than those two teams as the Rebels are actually rated #1 in my power ratings.  LSU will face a strong Mississippi offense that is averaging 35.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Tigers have faced a weak slate of offenses that average 27.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Mississippi is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (-).

Michigan has had a tumultuous season.  The Wolverines come into this game at Michigan State with a poor 3-4 record.  However, Michigan got a confidence-building 18-13 win over Penn State in their last game.  Michigan went into their bye week with confidence, and since they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game, we expect another strong performance by the Wolverines.  Despite the losing record this season, Michigan has played exceptional defense against a tough slate of opposing offenses.  The Wolverines are giving up 21.4 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 29.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Michigan’s run defense has been tremendous as they give up just 93.6 yards per game on a minuscule 2.7 yards per rush.  To compare, Michigan State’s offense has faced rush defenses allowing 180.6 yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.             

Michigan State is 6-1 on the season, but according to my strength of schedule ratings, the Spartans have played a very weak schedule.  The Spartans’ offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 32.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play as a group this season.  Michigan State is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against Michigan in this game.  In fact, the Spartans are facing a Wolverines’ defense that is allowing 10.7 points per game and 1.4 yards per play less per game than the opponents Michigan State has faced this season.  Michigan has a decent enough rushing offense to move the ball as they are averaging 164.1 yards per game on the ground on 4.7 yards per rush.  Michigan State has played four FBS opponents from major conferences this season, and they won just one of those games by more than 14 points.  Michigan is also playing with revenge from last year’s 29-6 loss.  This is a lot of points for a rivalry game, and since Michigan has a strong defense and they are coming in off a week of rest, we’ll take the points with the Wolverines in this game on Saturday afternoon.       

9* Play MICHIGAN (+).

North Carolina appears to be playing better football over the last two weeks as the Tar Heels have covered back-to-back games.  However, their game two weeks ago against Notre Dame should be discounted because the Irish were overlooking North Carolina after upsetting Stanford the week before while having a game at Florida State on deck.  Notre Dame still won and scored 50 points in that game.  Last week, North Carolina beat Georgia Tech 48-43 despite allowing 611 yards of total offense.  The Tar Heels scored the game-winning touchdown with just 11 seconds left to play in the game.  North Carolina must now take to the road and face a good Virginia team returning home off a loss.  The Tar Heels have an atrocious defense that is allowing 43.3 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  North Carolina’s offense appears to be good after scoring 91 points in their last two games, but they are only averaging 5.7 yards per play versus opponents allowing 5.5 yards per play this season. 

Virginia comes into this game off a 20-13 road loss at Duke last Saturday.  That was a misleading final score as the Cavaliers actually had a 23-19 first down edge while out-gaining Duke 465-334.  Virginia went into that game off a bye, and despite losing, they certainly played good enough to win, so it’s an easy loss to overlook.  The Cavaliers have played tremendous defense this season as they are only giving up 22.1 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  Virginia’s defense has been even better at home where they give up just 18.8 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  This is a historical rivalry game as the two teams have been playing since 1919, and after last year’s 45-14 loss at North Carolina, the Cavaliers will be quite focused for some payback.  We’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers as they own the superior defense while playing with some strong motivation.   

9* Play VIRGINIA (-).

Texas was in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for their home game last week versus Iowa State.  The Longhorns went into that game off their close rivalry loss to Oklahoma the week before, and they simply had nothing left for the Cyclones.  Texas did win 48-45, so pulling out the win is certainly a positive heading into this game at Kansas State.  The Longhorns’ defense suffered the most from the Oklahoma hangover, but we expect a bounce back performance in this game.  Texas has played terrific defense this season despite last week’s poor results.  The Longhorns are allowing 24.6 points per game on 4.5 yards per play to opponents averaging 32.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Texas also has a superb secondary that permits just 5.6 yards per pass attempt against opponents averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt.           

Kansas State returns home off an upset win in Oklahoma last week.  The Wildcats won that game 31-30, but they should have lost.  Kansas State lost the first down battle 30-17 and they were out-yarded 533-385.  Oklahoma missed a chip-shot field goal that would have won the game, so Kansas State was extremely fortunate to escape with a win.  The Wildcats went into that game off a bye, and the fact they were out-played is really a negative sign coming into this game.  Kansas State has played a weak slate of opposing defenses this season.  The Wildcats’ opponents are allowing 34.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Kansas State is taking a big step-up in defensive class against Texas, especially since the Longhorns are giving up 9.7 points per game and 1.3 yards per play less than the defenses the Wildcats have faced.  Texas is a live underdog, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday.  

9* Play TEXAS (+).

BYU is in a difficult scheduling and situational spot for this Friday night game at Boise State, especially since they are playing on a short week.  The Cougars come in off three straight losses, including back-to-back games in which they blew double digit leads.  Two weeks ago, BYU led Central Florida 24-10 in the third quarter before losing 27-24 in overtime.  Last Saturday, BYU led Nevada 28-13 at the half before losing 42-35.  The Cougars racked up 610 yards of offense in their last game and still lost.  That is a game that is tough to overcome, so BYU will be playing with a hangover in tonight’s game.  BYU is also dealing with a slew of injuries, and in fact, they have 24 sprained ankles on their roster.  They also lost super QB Taysom Hill to a season-ending injury a few games ago, and their season appears to be spiraling out of control right now.       

Boise State is paying a second consecutive home game for the first time this season; this is just their fourth home game of the season after playing four of their first six games on the road.  The Broncos handled Fresno State 37-27 last Friday night in a game that was not as close as the final score indicates.  Boise State held a 24-12 first down edge while out-yarding the Bulldogs 492-313.  Boise State is averaging 32 points per game versus opponents that only give up 25.5 points per game.  They are averaging 6.1 yards per play versus opponents giving up 5.7 yards per play.  The Broncos’ defense has also been impressive in holding teams to just 5.2 yards per play despite those offenses averaging 5.7 yards per play as a group.  BYU’s defense has been terrible lately as they’ve given up 31 points or more in their last four games.  Boise State is also playing with revenge after losing 37-20 at BYU last season.  We’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Friday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Arkansas State was projected to be a mediocre team this season.  The Red Wolves season wins total was set at 7, and with an early 4-2 record, they’ve overachieved thus far.  Arkansas State returned just four starters on offense, and they are playing for their fifth new coach in five years.  Blake Anderson moved from offensive coordinator to head coach, a position he’s never held before.  At some point, the coaching turnover has to catch up to Arkansas State, and we think it will tonight on the road against one of the better teams in the conference.  Arkansas State’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played an extremely weak slate of opposing offenses that are only averaging 22.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  The Red Wolves will face the best offense in the conference tonight, so they will be exposed.

Louisiana-Lafayette was the best team on paper in the Sun Belt coming into the 2014 season.  The Ragin’ Cajuns returned 17 starters, including quarterback Terrance Broadway who put-up big numbers last season.  The offense was potent in averaging 33.8 points per game in 2013, and their defense was much improved.  But things haven’t panned out like expected thus far in 2014.  The Ragin’ Cajuns come in with a 3-3 record, but two of those losses were expected in games at Mississippi and at Boise State.  We fully expect UL-Lafayette to play up to their expectations now that they are playing Sun Belt opposition.  UL-Lafayette likes playing on Tuesday night:  “I think we’ve got a pretty good recipe for playing on these Tuesday nights,” UL head coach Mark Hudspeth said.  “Last year we were undefeated on Tuesday nights.  The way we prepare will lend itself to playing well in this game.”  They are already 1-0 this season with an easy 34-10 underdog win last Tuesday at Texas State.  We’ll take the points again with UL-Lafayette in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play UL-LAFAYETTE (+).

Iowa State has hung tough against some good opponents this season.  The Cyclones are only 2-4 SU overall, but they’ve played a brutal schedule with their four losses coming against Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and FCS powerhouse North Dakota State.  The Cyclones are now off a confidence building home win, so they come into this game in much better shape than Texas.  Iowa State’s defense has faced a slew of potent offenses that average 37.5 points per game.  The Cyclones will take a big step down in class here against a Texas offense that is only averaging 19.7 points per game on 4.8 yards per play this season.

Texas is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game against Iowa State.  The Longhorns are off back-to-back big games, including their 31-26 loss to rival Oklahoma last Saturday.  Texas put everything they had into that game, and it is hard to imagine the Longhorns have much left now for a team like Iowa State, especially after battling back from a 31-13 deficit with just 12 minutes left to play in the Oklahoma game last week.  Despite losing, Texas dominated Oklahoma as they out-yarded them 482-232 which was their best offensive output of the season.  It was all for not, and that effort is going to leave Texas flat for this game.  Take Iowa State plus the points.

9* Play IOWA STATE (+).

Nebraska comes into this game with an impressive 5-1 SU and ATS record.  But their lone loss came against the one good team they played; Michigan State won 27-22 in a misleading final score as Nebraska trailed 27-3 in the fourth quarter.  Nebraska has not played a tough schedule at all this season.  The Cornhuskers have faced a slew of terrible defenses that are giving up 30.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Nebraska will face a solid Northwestern defense that is allowing 17.5 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 26.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Nebraska’s offensive strength is running the football, but the Wildcats allow just 3.7 yards per rush versus opponents averaging 4.4 yards per rush.        

Northwestern opened the season with unexpected back-to-back home losses, and since those games, the Wildcats have been undervalued.  Northwestern is 3-1 in their last four games, including a 20-14 home win over Wisconsin, a team similarly built like Nebraska.  The Wildcats have played a much tougher schedule than it appears, and in fact, they’ve played a tougher schedule than Nebraska.  These two teams have played three close, low-scoring games over the last three years.  The winning team scored 29 points or less in all three games with the winning margins being 3, 1, and 3 points.  The close results make sense since both Nebraska and Northwestern are both run-heavy teams that rely on their defenses to win games.  In a game that comes right down to the wire, we’ll take the points with the home underdog in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

Oklahoma State is not the same team they’ve been in year’s past, but they are still a tough out for opponents.  The Cowboys are 5-1 on the season with their lone loss coming by just 6 points (37-31) to Florida State in their season opener.  Oklahoma State has played above average football on both sides of the ball this season.  The Cowboys’ offense is averaging 37.2 points per game versus opponents allowing 30.9 points per game.  Oklahoma State’s defense is giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging 25.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Cowboys have been terrific against the run as they are allowing just 109.8 yards per game on a minuscule 3.1 yards per rush.  Oklahoma State’s ability to stop the run will be a determining factor in this game.  

TCU is in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Horned Frogs lost their first game of the season last week at Baylor after blowing a 21-point lead with 11 minutes left to play in the game.  Baylor kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired, and off that heartbreaking 61-58 loss, TCU will play with a hangover in this game.  The Horned Frogs were off an emotional, high-scoring home underdog win over Oklahoma the week before, so consecutive weeks of close games will leave TCU empty for Oklahoma State.  TCU has faced a slew of poor defensive teams that give up 31.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Horned Frogs are now facing a strong Oklahoma State defense, so that is against them as well.  This is simply an awful spot for TCU, so we’ll take the generous points with Oklahoma State on Saturday afternoon.   

10* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (+).

Baylor is in a difficult scheduling and situational spot for this early start game in West Virginia.  The Bears come in off a huge comeback win at home over TCU last Saturday; they trailed by 21 points with just about 11 minutes left to play in the game.  Teams sometimes tend to ride momentum after such a win, but this game for Baylor doesn’t fit that mold.  They just beat a TCU team that was undefeated and ranked high in the polls while piling up an incredible 782 yards of total offense.  Baylor was also playing their first home game in over a month’s time after playing three straight games on the road.  Now Baylor must take to the road once again, and play an early game while laying points into a West Virginia team they beat 73-42 last season.  There’s a very good chance Baylor is gassed, and they are actually in a flat spot, especially since they have a bye on deck.       

West Virginia is much improved this season.  The Mountaineers went just 4-8 last season, but they come into this game at 4-2 SU with their two losses coming to Alabama and Oklahoma.  The Mountaineers were impressive in both defeats as they only lost 33-23 to Alabama and 45-33 to Oklahoma.  Baylor would be an underdog against both of those teams according to my power ratings, so West Virginia holds value in this game.  West Virginia has a strong offense with Clint Trickett at quarterback; they average 36.7 points per game versus opponents allowing 30.4 points per game.  Baylor has strong seasonal defense numbers, but they are skewed due to the weak offenses they played.  The Bears’ defense was exposed last week when TCU scored 58 points while putting up 485 yards of offense.  West Virginia has a strong pass defense, and that’s a key ingredient to have when facing Baylor.  The Mountaineers are only allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt to opponents averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt.  West Virginia is a live underdog, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday.  

9* Play WEST VIRGINIA (+).

Fresno State is in a rebuilding season after losing the majority of their key players from last year’s record-setting team.  The Bulldogs fielded their best team in a decade last season, so it was expected they would suffer thru growing pains in 2014.  The Bulldogs were crushed in their first three games against good teams; they lost by a combined score of 166-59.  Since those losses, Fresno State has played four terrible opponents and they went 3-1 SU in those games.  Last Friday night, the Bulldogs lost 30-27 in overtime at a terrible UNLV team.  That ugly loss could now linger, especially since they are stepping way up in class and now playing on the blue turf against Boise State.  Fresno State has lost seven of the last eight meetings, but they did win 41-40 at home last season, but again, that was with their best team over the last ten years.

Boise State has revenge and they come into this game off their bye week, so they are the much fresher team.  This will also be their first home game in a month, and just their third home game of the season after playing four of their first six games on the road.  Boise State has always been a much stronger team on their home field, and against a poor defense like Fresno State, we expect the Broncos to produce one of their best offensive games of the season.  Boise State is averaging 31.2 points per game versus opponents that only give up 23.5 points per game.  They are averaging 6.1 yards per play versus opponents giving up 5.6 yards per play.  The Broncos’ defense has also been impressive in holding teams to just 5.2 yards per play despite those offenses averaging 5.7 yards per play as a group.  Boise State will bring their best effort in this revenge game, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Friday night.

10* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Louisiana-Lafayette was the best team on paper in the Sun Belt coming into the 2014 season.  The Ragin’ Cajuns returned 17 starters, including quarterback Terrance Broadway who put-up big numbers last season.  The offense was potent in averaging 33.8 points per game in 2013, and their defense was much improved.  But things haven’t panned out like expected thus far in 2014.  The Ragin’ Cajuns come in with a 2-3 record, but two of those losses were expected in games at Mississippi and at Boise State (2 Best Bet winners for us going against UL-Lafayette).  The Ragin’ Cajuns were playing without their best offensive threat (WR Jamal Robinson), but he recently returned and the offense perked up last week, scoring 34 points on 461 yards.  With a return to Sun Belt opponents, we fully expect UL-Lafayette to play up to their expectations.     

Texas State was projected to be a poor team this season.  The Bobcats season wins total was set at 6, and with an early 3-2 record, they’ve overachieved thus far.  Texas State’s defense returned just four starters, and the coaching situation set them back.  Coordinator John Thompson was hired just one week before spring practice.  He implemented a 4-2-5 scheme with inexperienced players, and the Bobcats have struggled mightily this season.  Texas State is allowing 28.2 points per game versus offenses only averaging 21.4 points per game.  The Bobcats will face the best offense in the conference tonight, so they will be further exposed.  UL-Lafayette likes playing on Tuesday night: “I think we’ve got a pretty good recipe for playing on these Tuesday nights,” UL head coach Mark Hudspeth said.  “Last year we were undefeated on Tuesday nights. The way we prepare will lend itself to playing well in this game.”  We’ll take the points with UL-Lafayette as they are simply the better team. 

9* Play UL-LAFAYETTE (+).

Mississippi is every bit as good as their 5-0 record indicates.  The Rebels have cashed three Best Bet winners for us this season, including last week’s 23-17 win over Alabama.  There’s simply no reason for us not to back Mississippi once again in this game.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and their record is not a shocker at all.  Mississippi’s defense has been outstanding this season.  The Rebels are giving up just 10.2 points per game versus opponents that average 29.1 points per game.  Mississippi allows just 4.1 yards per play versus opponents that average 5.8 yards per play.  Texas A&M has not faced a defense remotely close to Mississippi’s as the Aggies’ opponents are allowing 39.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play as a group this season.   

Texas A&M is a fraudulent 5-1 team.  The Aggies were exposed in their 48-31 loss at Mississippi State last Saturday.  Texas A&M should have lost to Arkansas, but they survived in overtime.  The Aggies' claim to fame so far this season was their opening 52-28 blowout win over South Carolina.  Quarterback Kenny Hill came out of nowhere, and the Aggies are still overvalued because of that singular win.  South Carolina is not a good team, so that win gets less impressive week after week.  Texas A&M has a terrible defense that is allowing 5.4 yards per play against a slate of mediocre offenses that are only averaging 5.3 yards per play.  Mississippi’s offense will have a ton of success on the Aggies since they are averaging 35.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus opponents giving up 26.7 points per play on 5.4 yards per play.  Mississippi is the much better team, so we’ll take the points with the strong defensive underdog on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (+).

Houston comes into this game with a 2-3 SU, but that record looks better than it actually is.  The Cougars have played one of the easiest schedules in college football so far this season, and despite that, they’ve underperformed on the field.  Houston’s two wins this season have come over FCS Grambling State and a horrendous UNLV team.  The Cougars lost by 20 points at home to Texas-San Antonio, and they also lost last week at home to Central Florida.  Neither one of those two teams has much of an offense yet Houston allowed them to score 44 points.  Overall this season, Houston has faced a terrible collection of offenses that are only averaging 19.1 points per game on a weak 4.7 yards per play.  Houston’s defense is taking a major step-up in class for this game as Memphis is averaging 35.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.        

Memphis is a good team that many people do not know about.  The Tigers are just 3-2 SU on the season, but their two losses have come at UCLA and at Mississippi who are a combined 9-1 SU on the season.  Memphis returns home off back-to-back road games, and in fact, they’ve been on the road for three of their last four games.  The Tigers will be primed for a big effort in this game since it is their first conference home game.  Memphis comes in off a big 41-14 confidence building win at Cincinnati last Saturday, so they also bring a lot of momentum into this game.  Memphis’ offense is well balanced as they are averaging 210 yards per game on the ground and 231.6 yards per game thru the air.  Memphis has put those numbers up against a tough schedule, and their ability to run and pass will be too much for Houston to stop.  The Tigers’ defense has been terrific in allowing just 19.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging 28.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Memphis is the superior team in this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Tigers on Saturday night.           

10* Play MEMPHIS (-).

Auburn came thru as a Best Bet selection for us last week in their 41-7 waxing of LSU on Saturday night.  We’re going to come right back with the Tigers again this week, especially since there’s a lot of value in the current pointspread; my power ratings make Auburn a solid 6-point favorite in this game.  Auburn’s offense has been fantastic this season as they are averaging 42 points per game on 6.8 yards per play versus opponents allowing 23.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Auburn’s defense has also played terrific this season as they are giving up just 14.4 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 35.2 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Auburn has put-up those gaudy numbers despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the country so far this season.

Mississippi State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season.  The Bulldogs are certainly an improved team, and they won easily for us as underdogs at LSU.  However, Mississippi State has not played a tough team all season, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  The five teams the Bulldogs have faced are allowing 25 points per game on 5.6 yards per play collectively as a group.  Mississippi State will face a much tougher defense in this game, especially since Auburn is allowing 10.6 points per game and 1.0 yards per play less than what the Bulldogs have been facing.  Mississippi State has faced two bad teams in SEC play so far as neither LSU nor Texas A&M are any good.  Auburn is better on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the short price with the Tigers in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play AUBURN (-).

Oregon lost their first game of the season last Thursday night when Arizona went into Autzen and won 31-24 as 21.5-point underdogs.  It was the second straight year that Oregon lost to Arizona, and because of that, this is a bad situational spot for the Ducks.  That was a big revenge game for Oregon, and since they came up empty, the Ducks are vulnerable in this game.  After losing to Arizona last year, Oregon only won their following game by a single point (36-35) and that game was on their home field.  Oregon has not played a tough schedule at all this season, and their performances have been below their standards.  The Ducks have faced a slew of terrible defenses that are giving up 34.8 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  Oregon will face a UCLA defense that is allowing 25.8 points per game on 5.3 yards per play despite playing an imposing schedule so far this season.      

UCLA has been up and down, and they have not played up to their hype yet this season.  The Bruins are 4-1 SU but they are 1-4 ATS, and because of that there’s some tremendous value in this game.  UCLA has played a much tougher schedule than it appears.  At Virginia, home versus Memphis, on a neutral field versus Texas, at Arizona State, and home against Utah was a tough gauntlet for the Bruins.  Despite playing those tough opponents, UCLA’s offense is averaging 36 points per game versus defenses that are only allowing 22.8 points per game.  The Bruins will face a weak Oregon defense that gave up 31 points on 6.2 yards per play in their lone road game at Washington State this season.  UCLA should be the favorite in this game, so we’ll take the points with the Bruins in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play UCLA (+).

West Virginia is much improved this season.  The Mountaineers went just 4-8 last season, but they come into this game at 3-2 SU with their two losses coming to Alabama and Oklahoma.  The Mountaineers were impressive in both defeats as they only lost 33-23 to Alabama and 45-33 to Oklahoma.  After their back and forth game with the Sooners, West Virginia had a week off prior to their game with Kansas last Saturday.  It was hard for West Virginia to be focused for that game as Kansas is one of the worst teams in the country who just fired their head coach.  Despite winning just 33-14, the Mountaineers out-yarded Kansas 557-176 with a 25-9 first down advantage.  West Virginia has a strong offense with Clint Trickett at quarterback; they average 36.6 points per game versus opponents allowing 28.5 points per game.  The Mountaineers will go up and down the field on a terrible Texas Tech defense that is giving up 40 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.    

Texas Tech is not a good football team, and we saw that again last week when they lost 45-13 at Kansas State.  The Red Raiders are a dysfunctional team, and they’ve lost three straight games by a combined 63 points after opening the season with a pair of wins over two bad teams.  Head coach Kliff Kingsbury is in over his head, and the players have little respect for him according to insiders.  Despite playing four terrible defensive teams, Texas Tech’s offense is averaging less points per game than what those teams are giving up (29.6-30.5).  West Virginia’s defense is giving up a respectable 5.3 yards per play, so the Red Raiders will have trouble moving the ball.  Texas Tech is one-dimensional to the pass, but West Virginia has a strong pass defense that is only allowing 6.1 yards per pass attempt to opponents averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt.  West Virginia is simply the better team with significant match-up edges, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday.  

9* Play WEST VIRGINIA (-).

Nebraska is a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season, but the Cornhuskers are getting little respect.  That is all because of their close, 7-point win over FCS McNeese State back in Week 2.  The other knock on Nebraska is their weak schedule, however, according to my strength of schedule ratings, the Cornhuskers have actually played a tougher schedule than Michigan State.  The Cornhuskers also have the better defense as they are only giving up 19 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus opponents that are averaging 26.8 points per game game on 5.6 yards per play.  Michigan State’s defense is allowing 20.2 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 19.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.        

Michigan State’s only “real” opponent so far this season was Oregon; the Spartans lost that game 46-27.  That loss looks even worse now that Oregon lost at home as 24-point favorites on Thursday night to Arizona.  The Spartans have not been challenged by a potent offense since that game, but they will be tested in this game.  Nebraska is averaging 45.4 points per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per play.  The Cornhuskers have a strong running game that averages 354.8 yards per game on the ground on 6.9 yards per rush.  In last year’s game, Nebraska ran for a 182 yards on 5.7 yards per rush against a Michigan State defense that was one of the best in the country, especially against the run.  These two teams are even across the board, so we’ll take the points in a game that comes right down to the wire.       

9* Play NEBRASKA (+).

Texas Tech is not a good football team, and there’s rumors swirling around that they are a dysfunctional team.  The Red Raiders have lost back-to-back games after opening the season with a pair of wins over two bad teams.  Head coach Kliff Kingsbury is in over his head, and the players have little respect for him according to insiders.  Texas Tech has played four terrible defensive teams that are allowing 32.2 points per game and 6.6 yards per play as a group.  The Red Raiders will be facing a strong Kansas State defense that is giving up just 23 points per game and 4.6 yards per play.  Texas Tech is one-dimensional to the pass, but they may be without starting quarterback Davis Webb because of a shoulder injury.  If Webb is out, that means inexperienced Patrick Mahomes will get the start.  Mahomes is a running quarterback which does not fit Texas Tech’s offensive style.  The Red Raiders are in serious trouble regardless, and if Mahomes starts, they have little chance to be competitive.      

Kansas State is trending up, and head coach Bill Snyder holds a huge edge over Kingsbury in this game.  The Wildcats are 2-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming by just 6 points (20-14) to Auburn, a game they could have easily won.  Kansas State’s other two home wins have come by 39 and 30 points, and Snyder has never been shy about running up the score.  The Wildcats are averaging 42.3 points per game at home this season while Texas Tech’s defense is allowing 35.5 points per game on the road.  Kansas State’s offense will score at will against a terrible Texas Tech defense, especially since the Red Raiders play undisciplined football, committing 46 penalties for 422 yards in four games, the most in the country.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Kansas State on Saturday night.

10* Play KANSAS STATE (-).

LSU has won their last three games by a combined score of 150-7.  However, the Tigers have played nothing in terms of competition in those wins over FCS Sam Houston State, Louisiana Monroe, and New Mexico State.  The Tigers lost at home to Mississippi State in between, and they were challenged in their season opener by Wisconsin.  LSU needed 15 fourth quarter points to win that game; the Tigers allowed the Bulldogs and Badgers to run for a combined 570 yards on 6.6 yards per rush.  LSU will face a strong Auburn rushing attack that is averaging 260.5 yards on the ground per game on 5.5 yards per rush versus opponents allowing 160.4 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush.  LSU will not be able to contain Auburn’s running game, and that means it will be a long night for the road team. 

Auburn has had this game circled since losing 35-21 at LSU last season.  That was Auburn’s worst played game of the season, especially quarterback Nick Marshall who completed just 17 of his 33 passes with 2 interceptions.  Auburn still put up 437 yards of offense in that game with 213 of those yards coming on the ground.  Auburn’s offense has been fantastic this season as they are averaging 42.2 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus opponents allowing 27.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Auburn’s defense has also played terrific this season as they are giving up just 16.2 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 33.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Auburn will bring their best effort in this revenge game, so we’ll lay the points with the Tigers on Saturday night.   

9* Play AUBURN (-).

Alabama comes into this game at 4-0 SU, but they are just 1-3 ATS.  That is a major red flag considering Alabama played inferior opponents with poor defenses.  Alabama is taking a major step-up in defensive class in this game, so there’s value in playing against them, especially since they are laying points on the road.  Mississippi’s defense has been outstanding this season.  The Rebels are giving up just 8.5 points per game versus opponents that average 25.2 points per game.  Mississippi allows just 3.7 yards per play (versus opponents that average 5.7 yards per play), and it’s extremely rare to find a home underdog with such strong defensive numbers.  

Mississippi is a loaded team that includes 15 starters from last year’s 8-5 team.  The Rebels have cashed two Best Bet winners for us this season, so there’s no reason not to back them in this game.  Head coach Hugh Freeze is in his third season in Oxford, and his teams always improve as the years go on.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and they are much closer to Alabama than most would think.  Mississippi had a bye prior to last week’s game against Memphis (24-3 win), and we’re sure the Rebels were game planning for this game during that week off.  This is Mississippi’s ‘Game of the Year’ and they will put everything they have into this game.  We’ll take the points with the strong defensive home underdog in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (+).

Oregon State has had this game circled since losing 31-14 at home to USC last season.  The Beavers closed as 5.5-point home favorites in that game, so this is a legitimate revenge game for them.  Oregon State returned 14 starters from last year’s team, including future NFL quarterback Sean Mannion who is having a fantastic season.  Mannion is completing 67.2% of his passes, and he’ll be facing a young and vulnerable USC secondary that has yet to face a strong passing offense this season.  Prior to last year’s loss, this series has been quite competitive with the teams splitting the last six meetings with four of the games decided by 8 points or less.      

USC is a better team now that Lane Kiffin is gone.  Steve Sarkisian is a much better coach, but the heat is on in Los Angeles.  The Trojans are off a horrible blowout loss at Boston College, and there was no excuse for such a poor performance.  USC has had a week off since that ugly loss, so a strong bounce back effort may be expected.  However, according to insiders, the week off consisted of ‘what went wrong’ questions instead of putting the game in the past.  “I feel it every week,” Sarkisian said when asked about the pressure to win.  “Expectations, believe me, are extremely high at USC. This is a different place that way, but that's OK.”  Those quotes speak volumes to the pressure on USC in this game.  Oregon State’s defense has been terrific this season as they are giving up just 17 points per game, so getting more than a touchdown presents solid value.  Oregon State will bring their best effort in this revenge game, so we’ll take the points with the Beavers on Saturday night.   

9* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Texas-San Antonio returned one of the most experienced teams in the country this season.  The Roadrunners welcomed back 20 starters after winning 15 games over the last two seasons.  Head coach Larry Coker won a national championship at Miami, FL so he knows what to do with a good team.  The Roadrunners have played a brutal schedule so far with games at Houston, home versus Arizona, and at Oklahoma State.  Despite playing three potent offenses, Texas-San Antonio’s defense is only giving up 25.3 points per game.  The Roadrunners’ offensive numbers are skewed because of the competition, and since they are taking a major step-down in class for this game, we expect Texas-San Antonio’s best offensive production of the season, especially since they come into this game off a productive week of rest.  “Our goal is to win the conference and go to a bowl game,” said defensive coordinator Neal Neathery.  “There’s definitely a little more, ‘Hey, let’s go get this thing.’  That’s what we’ve been talking about this week.”  

Florida Atlantic is not a good football team.  The Owls come into this game with a 1-3 record.  Granted, two of their losses came at Nebraska and at Alabama, but the Owls have still played below average football when we factor in their other games against poor teams like Tulsa and Wyoming.  Florida Atlantic is averaging just 19 points per game against defenses that allow 25.4 points per game.  Texas-San Antonio’s defense has faced a group of offenses that average 37.8 points per game, so their strong defense will stymie the Owls in this game.  On defense, Florida Atlantic is giving up 34.2 points per game versus opponents that average 31.6 points per game.  The Owls are off a brutal 20-19 loss last week in Wyoming after a fumble allowed the Cowboys to kick the winning field goal with just 15 seconds left to play in the game.  Texas-San Antonio is the better team in a good spot, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday.   

9* Play TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (-).

Wake Forest is a team in transition.  The Demon Deacons are in their first season under new head coach Dave Clawson, and they are still learning his schemes on both sides of the ball.  Wake Forest comes into this game at 2-2 on the season, but their two wins came at home against Army and FCS Gardner-Webb.  The Demon Deacons have played a terrible slate of opponents thus far as their other two games have come against Louisiana-Monroe and Utah State.  Despite the weak schedule, Wake Forest has played below average football.  They are only averaging 20.2 points per game versus defenses that are giving up 26.4 points per game.  Wake Forest has also faced some terrible offenses, but they allowed 20.2 points per game versus opponents who only average 18.1 points per game.  Wake Forest is taking a huge step-up in class against Louisville in this game.

Louisville won convincingly 34-3 at Florida International last week.  The Cardinals return home with a lot of momentum after playing their last two games on the road.  Louisville’s offense has taken well to head coach Bobby Petrino’s system as they are averaging 38 points per game this season.  True freshman Reggie Bonnafon will start at quarterback in this game, and Petrino is excited to get him on the field:  “Since the day he got here, he’s been very mature, a quick learner, very competitive,” Petrino said.  “Every time we’ve put him into the game, he’s executed well.  He has a little bit of different flavor, with the fact that he’s very athletic and he can run.”  Bonnafon’s presence just gives the poor Wake Forest defense another dimension to game plan for, and with limited film on Bonnafon, the Cardinals’ offense has a big advantage.  Louisville’s defense has been terrific this season, allowing just 15 points per game versus opponents that average 24.4 points per game.  This game is a mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Louisville on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play LOUISVILLE (-).

UCLA has not played up to their hype yet this season.  The Bruins are 3-0 SU but they are 0-3 ATS, and because of that there’s some value in this game.  UCLA has played a much tougher schedule than it appears.  Virginia, Memphis, and Texas are better than projected, and the defenses of the Cavaliers and Longhorns have proven to be strong.  Despite playing tough opponents, UCLA’s offense is averaging 30 points per game versus defenses that are only allowing 22.7 points per game.  The Bruins will face a young and inexperienced Arizona State defense tonight, so we can expect efficient offensive production out of UCLA in this game.

Arizona State is also 3-0 SU on the season, but the Sun Devils have played a brutally bad slate of opponents so far.  Arizona State has faced FCS Weber State and a pair of FBS dregs on the road in New Mexico and Colorado.  Despite the weak opposition, the Sun Devils have underperformed as they are barely playing above average football.  Arizona State has faced a collective group of defenses that are allowing 38.7 points per game.  Things will get much tougher tonight as UCLA’s defense is only giving up 24 points per game versus offenses that are averaging 31.9 points per game.  The Sun Devils will also be without starting quarterback Taylor Kelly due to injury.  Backup QB Mike Bercovici can play, but this is a tough spot start for him.  UCLA is also playing with meaningful revenge after losing 38-33 at home to Arizona State last season.  The Bruins have yet to play to their talent, but in a spotlight game in primetime, we expect their best performance of the season.

10* Play UCLA (-).

Louisiana Lafayette may be a good team in the Sun Belt conference this season, but they are once again out-classed in this game.  We played against the Ragin’ Cajuns last week and won an easy Best Bet selection on Mississippi in their 56-15 romp.  Now Lafayette must take to the road again and travel out to Boise and play in elevation on the quirky blue turf after taking a beaten by a physical SEC team.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have a bye next week before opening conference play, so this is basically a ‘throwaway’ game with an eye towards easier opponents.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have shown no ability to step-up in class on the road in recent years.  Besides last week’s 41-point drubbing, they lost 34-14 at a terrible Arkansas team last season, and they got waxed 65-24 at Oklahoma State the season before.  The Ragin’ Cajuns’ defense is a mess as they’ve allowed 104 points and 1,087 yards of offense in their last two games.  

Boise State returns home off a solid win at Connecticut last week.  The Broncos were playing cross country in an early start game and they still put up 38 points.  Boise State has always been a much stronger team on their home field, and against a poor defense like Lafayette, we expect the Broncos to produce their best offense of the season.  Boise State is averaging 29.3 points per game versus opponents that only give up 21.7 points per game.  The Broncos’ defense has also been impressive in holding teams to just 26.7 points per game despite those offenses averaging 31.8 points per game collectively.  Boise State will not play another home game until October 17th, so they will bring their best effort in front of their loyal fans.  We’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Mississippi State has had this game circled since losing 59-26 at home to LSU last season.  On the surface, that result looks like a dominating 33-point blowout win by LSU.  That game was anything but.  LSU only led 31-26 going into the fourth quarter before Mississippi State self imploded.  The Tigers scored 28 points over the final 15 minutes of the game to make the score look like a lopsided win.  Mississippi State put up 468 yards of offense in that game, including 216 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per rush.  The Bulldogs return 8 starters from last year’s offense, so they know they can have success against LSU’s defense.  This year, the Bulldogs are averaging 43.7 points per game against opponents who only allow 23.3 points per game.  Mississippi State’s offense is averaging 6.7 yards per play, so they will move the ball on the Tigers.        

LSU has won their last two games by a combined score of 87-0.  However, the Tigers have played nothing in terms of competition in those wins over FCS Sam Houston State and Louisiana Monroe.  The Tigers were challenged in their season opener as they only beat Wisconsin 28-24.  LSU needed 15 fourth quarter points to win that game; the Tigers allowed the Badgers to run for 268 yards on 6.9 yards per rush.  LSU only returned 12 starters from last year’s 10-win team, and the early season results may not be a true indication that this current team is a dominant bunch.  Mississippi State will bring their best effort in this revenge game, so we’ll take the points with the Bulldogs on Saturday night.   

9* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (+).

Massachusetts is not a good football team; they come into this game at 0-3.  The Minutemen do appear to be a competitive bunch this season with back-to-back 3-point losses, but those margins of defeat look much better than they actually are.  UMass was drilled 30-7 by a bad Boston College team in their season opener, and then they lost to Colorado and at Vanderbilt.  All three opponents are dregs, so the Minutemen are taking a huge step-up in class against Penn State in this game.  UMass will also be without their leading rusher, Jamal Wilson, after he broke his ankle in their last game.  His replacement is a true freshman, and this comment from head coach Mark Whipple isn’t exactly promising: “I can’t say I have much confidence now. I’d be lying and I’m not a liar,” Whipple said when asked about the new running back.  The Minutemen are also inexperienced along the offensive line as they will start a true freshman, a Juco transfer, and a career backup in this game.   

Penn State is trending up, and that began with the hire of head coach James Franklin.  He turned Vanderbilt into a relevant football team while he was there, and he’s doing the same for the Nittany Lions.  Penn State is 3-0 against three decent opponents, and their play on defense has been terrific.  Penn State is only allowing 12.3 points per game versus opponents that average 22.9 points per game.  The Minutemen offense has been poor despite playing a slate of weak defenses; UMass is only scoring  25.3 points per game versus teams that allow 31.6 points per games.  Penn State’s offense will explode against a terrible Massachusetts defense that has given up 35 points per game against offenses that average just 23.7 points per game.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Penn State on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play PENN STATE (-).

Florida was one of our selections last week, and we lost when the Gators won SU but failed to cover the spread against Kentucky.  The Gators were sluggish in that game, perhaps to their historical dominance of Kentucky, and maybe they were just peaking ahead to this game against Alabama.  Whatever the reason, we have no hesitation in backing the Gators again this week, especially since they are a double digit underdog.  Florida is a much improved team this season, and they hold a ton of value after slogging thru an injury riddled 4-8 season last year.  The Gators now possess an offense that can move the ball consistently, and their defense is always one of the best in the SEC.  Despite their awful 2013, Florida was only a double digit underdog twice; they lost by 5 points at South Carolina and got drilled by Florida State just like everybody else.

Alabama comes into this game at 3-0 SU, but they are 0-3 ATS.  That is a major red flag considering Alabama played three inferior opponents that all have poor defenses.  Alabama is taking a major step-up in defensive class in this game, so asking them to win this game by more than two touchdowns is asking an awful lot.  The Crimson Tide’s defense was carved up by West Virginia QB Clint Trickett in the season opener; he threw for 365 yards on the inexperienced Alabama secondary.  Alabama will be without their starting safety in the first half after he was ejected for an illegal hit in their last game, and his backup is out with an injury.  That leaves a shaky unit quite thin, and Florida has the personnel to attack thru the air.  Florida will put everything they have into this game since they have a bye on deck, so we’ll take the big points with the Gators on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play FLORIDA (+).

Auburn has played fantastic football under head coach Gus Malzahn.  In his two years, the Tigers are 14-2 with their losses coming in the National Championship game to Florida State and at LSU; the Tigers were double digit underdogs in both games.  Malzahn is one of the best coaches in college football, and it’s tough to go against his teams.  However, this is an extremely difficult spot for Auburn, and the line is simply inflated.  My power ratings only make Auburn a 3-point favorite in this game, so there’s some tremendous value on Kansas State, especially at +7 or more.  Auburn has played two home games thus far, and against the one decent team they faced (Arkansas), the game was tied in the third quarter before Auburn pulled away late.  The Tigers closed as 17-point favorites in that game after a flood of money came in against Auburn, so for them to somewhat struggle at home is not a good sign, especially since they are laying points in their first road game against a good out of conference opponent.

Kansas State is also 2-0 on the season with a home win over FCS Stephen F. Austin and a road win at Iowa State.  The Wildcats come into this game off a 12-day break (Auburn does as well), but we actually give a big edge to Kansas State in this scheduling situation.  Head coach Bill Snyder is a master game planner with extra time, and his teams are always ready when playing as a home underdog.  In fact, Kansas State is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog since Snyder returned in 2009, winning six of those games SU.  Overall, Snyder has won SU 13 times as an underdog since returning, and tonight’s game provides an excellent chance at adding to that number.  Insiders are sure that Kansas State played vanilla offense in their first two games with Snyder’s eye on this Auburn game.  They believe Snyder will unleash the Wildcats in this game as this game is their entire season.  We respect Auburn and Malzahn immensely, but the points and situation are too good to pass up, so we’ll take Kansas State on Thursday night.  

9* Play KANSAS STATE (+).

USC has won two Best Bet selections for us so far this season, and there’s no reason for us to stop backing the Trojans.  They crushed Fresno State 52-13 in their season opener, and last week they beat Stanford 13-10.  Many may think this is a letdown spot for USC off the Stanford win, but we see it the opposite way.  The Trojans are on a mission this season after the mess they’ve been thru over the last few seasons.  USC is not going to take any game lightly as they need to impress to get back on the national radar.  USC is a more unified group without Lane Kiffin as their head coach.  Current head coach Steve Sarkisian is well liked by his players, and the team goes all out for him.  Quarterback Cody Kessler has played tremendous, completing 67.8% (40-59) of his passes with 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Kessler’s numbers will be much improved this year under the guidance of Sarkisian, and we expect him to have a big game on Saturday night.

Boston College is in rebuilding mode with just 9 returning starters this season.  The Eagles had 17 returning starters last season, and they went just 7-6 on the year.  Boston College is void of major talent right now, and they are totally out-classed in this game versus USC.  The Eagles had a much better team last year, but they were non-competitive in a 35-7 loss at USC.  Boston College is taking a monumental step-up in competition this week after facing a putrid Massachusetts team in their season opener and an okay Pittsburgh team last week.  This is an important game for USC, especially since they have a bye next week.  Lay the points with USC on Saturday night.

9* Play USC (-).

This has been a lopsided series with Florida winning 27 straight games over Kentucky.  That streak is going to continue this year, and the Gators are going to roll up a big number on the Wildcats.  Florida crushed Eastern Michigan 65-0 last week, and they showed that their offense has improved greatly from last season’s debacle.  The Gators only averaged 18.8 points per game in 2013, but much of that can be attributed to injuries as they just decimated the whole Florida team.  In their 65-point win last week, the Gators gained 655 yards of total offense.  Despite Florida’s poor offense last year, they stilled rolled up 402 yards on Kentucky’s home field.  With a healthy team now, the Gators will go up and down the field on the Wildcats in this game.

Kentucky comes into this game at 2-0, but those two wins came at home over FCS UT-Martin and Ohio from the MAC conference.  The Wildcats are taking a major step-up in class here against the Gators, and we don’t expect them to be too competitive.  Kentucky’s Over/Under season wins total was just 3.5 this season, so after a 2-0 start, their losses are going to start adding up.  Kentucky installed their new Air-Raid offense under head coach Mark Stoops last season, but the Wildcats were highly inconsistent last week when they scored just 20 points against Ohio.  The Gators have a very stout defense, and it’s hard to envision Kentucky scoring enough points to stay close, especially since Florida has held them to a total of 7 points over the last two meetings.  This game will be a one-sided blowout, so we’ll lay the points with Florida on Saturday night. 

9* Play FLORIDA (-).

Mississippi came thru for us with an easy Best Bet winner over Vanderbilt last week, and we’ll come right back with the Rebels this week.  Mississippi won that game 41-3 after racking up 547 yards of total offense.  Mississippi is a loaded team that includes 15 starters from last year’s 8-5 team that had to face Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in three consecutive weeks.  Head coach Hugh Freeze is in his third season in Oxford, and his teams always improve as the years go on.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and their defense has been outstanding so far this season.  Mississippi has allowed 16 total points in their two games, and they will limit the Ragin’ Cajuns’ offensive production in this game. 

Louisiana Lafayette will be a good team in the Sun Belt conference this season, but they are simply out-classed in this game versus Mississippi.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have shown no ability to step-up in class on the road in recent years.  They lost 34-14 at a terrible Arkansas team last season, and they got waxed 65-24 at Oklahoma State the season before.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have no chance to match points with the potent Mississippi offense, especially after their defense gave up 48 points on 533 yards of offense to Louisiana Tech on their home field last week.  We’ll lay the points with Mississippi in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play MISSISSIPPI (-).

UCLA did not play up to their hype last week in Virginia.  The Bruins escaped with a 28-20 win as their offense played really bad.  However, we’re willing to forgive that effort and the results for a couple of reasons.  First and foremost, UCLA was playing a rare game on the East Coast and it started at 12:00 pm ET.  The Bruins’ players were out of their element, and an early start in their first game of the season was a big disadvantage.  Second, the Bruins were playing a very good Virginia defense that had all summer to prepare.  UCLA was simply in a terrible situation to play up to their abilities last week, but that all changes in this game.  UCLA is at home and facing an inferior opponent, so we fully expect to see the “real” Bruins in this game.  

Memphis got their season off to a big start in their 63-0 waxing of FCS Austin Peay last week.  However, the Tigers are stepping way up in class here, and they’ll be facing one of the best teams in college football on the road off a poor performance.  Memphis may have a good season with 17 returning starters, but they are hopelessly out-classed in this game versus UCLA.  The 63 points scored by the Tigers last week was an aberration.  In their previous 60 games, the most points Memphis scored were 42, and they only eclipsed the 40-point mark in two of those sixty games.  The Tigers will regress sharply off their win, and since we expect UCLA to play much better, this game will be a one-sided blowout.  

10* Play UCLA (-).

Mississippi did not play their best football last week in their 35-13 win over Boise State.  But with that game under their belts, we expect a much sharper team, especially since this is their SEC opener.  Mississippi is a loaded team that includes 15 starters from last year’s 8-5 team that had to face Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in three consecutive weeks.  Head coach Hugh Freeze is in his third season in Oxford, and his teams always improve as the years go on.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and despite their sluggish play last Thursday, Mississippi still rolled up 458 yards of offense.  The Rebels’ offense will explode this week, especially since they’ll be facing a Vanderbilt team that gave up 37 points to Temple last Thursday night.   

Vanderbilt figured to regress sharply this season after losing head coach James Franklin to Penn State.  Not only did they lose Franklin, but Vanderbilt also lost 11 starters, including five all-conference players.  The Commodores overachieved under Franklin as they won 18 games over the last two seasons, and if their season opener is any indication, Vanderbilt is in for a long season.  They lost at home by 30 points to Temple after getting out-yarded 351-278.  Vanderbilt did not score an offensive touchdown as their lone points came on a 13-yard fumble recovery.  The Commodores have no chance to match points with the potent Mississippi offense, so we expect another blowout loss for Vanderbilt in this game.  Lay the points with the Rebels on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (-).

USC crushed Fresno State 52-13 last week, winning us a Best Bet selection.  We’re going to come right back with the Trojans this week as they still hold some pointspread value.  USC is a much better team than they were last season, and they are a more unified group without Lane Kiffin as their head coach.  Current head coach Steve Sarkisian is well liked by his players, and that was evident last week when they came together after the bogus racist allegations were raised about Sarkisian.  USC racked up 37 first downs on 701 yards of total offense last week.  Quarterback Cody Kessler played tremendous as he completed 67.6% (25-37) of his passes with 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Kessler’s numbers will be much improved this year under the guidance of Sarkisian, and last week’s performance was certainly an indicator.

Stanford also won impressively last week as they rolled to a 45-0 victory.  However, that was against FCS UC-Davis.  They are taking a monumental step-up in competition this week.  Stanford has been terrific over the last few seasons; they’ve won 11 games or more in four straight years.  But the Cardinal return just 12 starters this season, and it’s hard to see them repeating their recent success.  Stanford had a tremendous team last season, but they lost 20-17 at USC as 3.5-point favorites.  They were a significantly better team than USC last year, so the fact that they lost that game does not bode well for this game, especially since USC is much improved.  This is an important game for USC as they attempt to regain their superiority in the state of California.  We’ll take the points with the better team in this game on Saturday afternoon.    

9* Play USC (+).

These two teams closed out last season with Louisville beating Miami (FL) 36-9 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  However, a lot has changed since that game.  Miami (FL) is much healthier for this game as they will have their best running back, Duke Johnson, on the field tonight; he missed the bowl game.  The Hurricanes will also have a new quarterback in true freshman Brad Kaaya.  He beat out experienced and BYU transfer Jake Heaps, and all reports out of Miami say Kaaya has the goods to be an elite college quarterback.  Miami’s ability to run the ball successfully with Johnson in this game will keep the pressure off Kaaya.  Louisville is replacing seven defensive starters while switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme, so Miami’s offense will take advantage of the Cardinals’ transition.  The Hurricanes have had all summer to prepare for Louisville, and they are hell-bent on erasing the memory of the embarrassing bowl loss last season.

Louisville comes into this season with a slew of changes from last year’s 12-1 team.  The Cardinals have a new head coach in Bobby Petrino after Charlie Strong left for Texas.  The coaching personalities are complete opposites, so it will be a difficult transition for the returning players.  Louisville lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to the NFL, and his successor is sophomore Will Gardner who is learning a completely new system.  Gardner will not have Louisville’s best receiver as DaVante Parker is out with a broken bone in his foot.  Miami returns their entire starting secondary from last year, and that unit feels compelled to atone for their atrocious performance in last year’s game.  Miami is 9-4 ATS as an underdog in three year’s under head coach Al Golden, and the Hurricanes have a lot of motivation fro this game.  In what projects to be a close game throughout, we’ll take the points with the Hurricanes on Monday night.          

10* Play MIAMI (FL) (+).

This game will be played on a neutral field in Dallas, Texas so neither team will have the site advantage.  Oklahoma State gets the worst possible opponent in their season opener.  The Cowboys are a shell of the team they’ve had over the last few seasons.  They return just 8 total starters, 4 on each side of the ball.  The Cowboys do have JW Walsh back at quarterback, but without the supporting cast, his experience means little, especially against the fast and ferocious defense of Florida State.  Oklahoma State’s defense was sneaky good last year even though they didn’t get any recognition.  They gave up just 21.6 points per game which were the fewest points allowed since 2009.  The Cowboys are extremely young on defense this season, and they are up against it versus the speed of the Seminoles’ offense.

Florida State comes in off their National Championship season.  The Seminoles will be hard-pressed to repeat their dominance for the whole season, but in this game against this opponent, we certainly expect them to.  Florida State returns quarterback Jameis Winston along with six other offensive starters.  The Seminoles will slice thru the Oklahoma State defense, especially since they’ll own a huge speed edge on the artificial surface.  Florida State’s defense will dominate opponents once again, and the young Cowboys’ offense will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency.  Florida State holds all the edges in this game, and since my power ratings make this game north of 3 touchdowns, we’ll lay the points with the Seminoles on Saturday night.

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Fresno State and USC closed out 2013 in the Las Vegas Bowl; the Trojans won 45-20 as 6-point favorites.  The talent edge displayed by USC in that game was quite noticeable, and that was against Fresno State’s best team in a decade.  The Trojans return virtually intact while the Bulldogs must replace their record-setting offense.  Quarterback Derek Carr graduated and he’s now in the NFL.  The Bulldogs are also without their top two wide receivers who accounted for 2,744 receiving yards and 30 touchdown receptions.  Fresno State won 11 games last season, but five of those wins came by 7 points or less which indicates they also had good fortune on their side.

USC will begin a new era in this game as Steve Sarkisian takes over as head coach.  Sarkisian knows the USC culture from his time as offensive coordinator under Pete Carroll.  The recent news about racism is a bunch of hogwash coming from a disgruntled player who wasn’t going to play.  The current team and former players have all backed Sarkisian in this incident, so there’s an expectation of a big performance in this game to silence the critics.  The Trojans are a very good team on both sides of the ball, and their defense will be one of the best in the country.  They allowed just 21 points per game last season, and they will dominate a young and inexperience Fresno State offense in this game.  This game is a mismatch as USC lays over the Bulldogs at every position.  Lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Clemson and Georgia will open their season against each other for the second consecutive year.  We won a Best Bet on Clemson as a home underdog in their 38-35 win over Georgia last season, but we’re going to flip sides for this game.  Clemson lost a lot of explosive talent from last year’s 11-2 team that won the Orange Bowl.  The Tigers must replace six offensive starters, including their quarterback, running back, and top two wide receivers.  Clemson’s offense averaged 41 and 40 points over the last two years, but their production is going to take a significant drop this season.  That will be quite evident in this game against Georgia’s defense, a unit that will be one of the best in the country at season’s end.

Georgia had a disappointing 2013.  The Bulldogs went just 8-5, and they lost quarterback Aaron Murray to a season-ending ACL injury.  Georgia suffered thru a slew of injuries last year, and they just couldn’t overcome them.  But last year’s misfortunes will benefit Georgia this season as many players gained valuable playing experience, especially QB Hutson Mason.  He completed 60.9% of his passes while throwing for 968 yards last season, and his numbers will improve this year.  Mason has a terrific running game to lean on, and the wide receivers will be one of the top units in the SEC.  Clemson’s defense is pretty good, but they will wear down because they will be on the field for a long time in this game as the Tigers’ offense will be unable to sustain drives against the stout Bulldogs’ defense.  Georgia is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday.

9* Play GEORGIA (-).