-Akron lost their final game of the season because they gave up 45 points; expect better effort
-offense averaged just 23.6 points per game vs. defenses that gave up 28.7 points per game
-Zips defense gave up just 26.3 points per game vs. offenses that averaged 28.2 ppg

-Florida Atlantic began the season at 1-3, but they won 9 straight games for a 10-3 SU record
-offense has terrific seasonal numbers, but they played a terrible slate of opposing defenses

-Owls defense only gave up 22.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play at home this season

10* Play UNDER the total.

-Marshall closed the season on a terrible 1-4 run, but 3 of those losses came by a total of 8 points                       -offense averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt on the road vs. defenses that gave up 7.1 yppa
-Thundering Herd defense only gives up 5.0 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.5 yppl 

-Colorado State closed on a 1-3 SU slide, but their three losses came by a combined 27 points
-offense was much worse away from home this year; averaged 9.8 points per game less (24-33.8)       
-Rams defense gives up 6.2 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.4 yards per play

9* Play MARSHALL (+).

-Georgia State bookended their season with 2 consecutive losses while scoring 30 total points
-offense averaged just 19.7 points per game vs. defenses that gave up 26.4 points per game
-Panthers defense gave up just 25.5 points per game vs. offenses that averaged 24.8 ppg

-Western Kentucky really struggled down the stretch, going just 1-4 SU in their last five games
-offense was terrible away from home this season; averaged just 19 points per game on 4.9 yppl 

-Hilltoppers defense gave up 5.3 yards per play on the road vs. offenses that averaged 5.3 yppl

9* Play UNDER the total.

-Army/Navy game has gone Under the total in 11 consecutive meetings; expect more of the same
-Black Knights offense averaged 2.6 points per game less away from home this season
-defense is giving up just 21.6 points per game vs. offenses that average 25.1 points per game 

-Army/Navy both know the triple-option offense well; median score of 38 ppg last 11 meetings
-Midshipmen offense is averaging just 5.3 yards per play away from home this season

-defense allows 25.3 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 34.1 points per game 

9* Play UNDER the total.

-Ohio State has 10 wins on the season, and nine of those wins have come by 11 points or more 
-offense is averaging 43.7 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 26 points per game

-Buckeyes defense is giving up just 19.8 points per game on 4.4 yards per play this season

-Wisconsin is a perfect 12-0 SU on the season, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule
-offense will face the best defense they’ve seen this season; especially against the run (3.3 ypr)
-Badgers defense has faced offenses that only average 5.4 yards per play; big step-up in class  

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

-Fresno State beat Boise State 28-17 as home underdogs last week, but don’t expect a repeat here 

-offense is only averaging 20.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play on the road this season
-Bulldogs defense has faced terrible offenses that only average 24.6 ppg on 5.5 yards per play 

-Boise State returns home where they’ve won their last two games by a combined score of 85-33
-offense is averaging 33.3 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 24.9 points per game    
-Broncos defense is giving up just 19.3 points per game on 4.5 yards per play at home this season

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

-Memphis is playing with legitimate revenge after losing 40-13 at UCF back in Week 5  

-offense is averaging 47 points per game vs. defenses that give up 34.7 points per game 
-Tigers defense only gives up 5.6 yards per play vs. offenses that average 6.0 yards per play  

-Central Florida comes in on a 1-4 ATS slide, so they haven’t dominated teams down the stretch
-offense has faced terrible defenses that give up 33.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play       
-Knights defense gives up 5.9 yards per play at home vs. offenses that average 5.8 yards per play

9* Play MEMPHIS (+).

-Stanford playing with legitimate revenge after losing 42-24 at USC back in Week 2  

-offense is averaging 6.4 yards per play vs. defenses that only give up 5.6 yards per play
-Cardinal defense give up 20.7 points per game vs. offenses that average 30.5 points per game 

-USC comes into this game off a bye, and since they beat Stanford easily, that’s not a good thing
-offense has been worse on the road; averaging 3.4 points per game and 0.5 yards per play less     
-Trojans defense gives up 28 points per game on 5.9 yards per play away from home this season 

9* Play STANFORD (+).

-Notre Dame has scored just 32 total points in their last two games; expect breakout tonight

-offense is averaging 36.7 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 24.3 points per game    

-Irish defense in bad current form; they’ve given up 95 total points in their last three games

-Stanford comes in off their worst offensive game of the season; expect strong bounce back here

-offense is averaging 37.6 points per game on 7.1 yards per play at home this season

-Cardinal defense is giving up 6.3 yards per play at home vs. offenses that average 5.9 yppl  

10* Play OVER the total.

-Clemson has won their last two games by a combined score of 92-17; excellent current form
-offense is averaging 35.3 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 28.1 points per game    
-Tigers defense is giving up just 13.9 points per game on 4.4 yards per play this season

-South Carolina has faced two terrible offenses in their last two games; big step-up in class here

-offense is only averaging 25.4 points per game vs. defenses that give up 27.7 points per game
-Gamecocks defense is allowing 143.3 rushing yards per game; Clemson averages 217.7 rypg  

9* Play CLEMSON (-).

-Arizona played one of their worst offensive games of the season last week; expect bounce back 

-offense is averaging 42.9 points per game vs. defenses that give up 32.9 points per game    

-Wildcats defense is giving up 39.8 points per game on 6.4 yards per play on the road

-Arizona State returns home off back-to-back road games; expect a strong performance here

-offense is averaging 31 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 28 points per game

-Sun Devils defense has given up 31.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season

9* Play OVER the total.

-Virginia Tech has played three consecutive poor games; expect breakout performance tonight 
-offense is averaging 30.5 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 26.3 points per game

-Hokies defense is giving up just 14.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play this season

-Virginia is off three consecutive draining games with two of those on the road; expect flat effort
-offense is only averaging 4.9 yards per play at home vs. defenses that give up 5.4 yards per play
-Cavaliers defense has given up 31 points or more in five straight games; 38 ppg over that stretch  

10* Play VIRGINIA TECH (-).

-Miami comes into this game off back-to-back big wins; tough spot to lay points on the road
-offense is much worse on the road; averaging 7.4 points per game and 1.0 yards per play less     
-Hurricanes defense is giving up 187.3 rushing yards per game on the road; bad favorite profile 

-Pittsburgh returns home off back-to-back losses; big effort for their final game of the season 

-offense is averaging 28.3 points per game; 4.4 points per game more than their overall average
-Panthers defense is allowing 27.7 points per game vs. offenses that average 29 points per game 

9* Play PITTSBURGH (+).

-Bowling Green has gone Over the total in six straight games; expect more of the same tonight

-offense is in good current form; they’ve scored 28 points or more in five of their last six games  

-Falcons defense is giving up 6.8 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.7 yards per play

-Eastern Michigan is 3-0-1 to the Over in their last 4 games; expect another high-scoring game

-offense has scored 113 points in their last three games, so expect their scoring ways to continue    

-Eagles defense is in terrible current form; they’ve given up 66 points in their last two games 

9* Play OVER the total.

-Missouri has won four straight games by an average of 37.3 points per game
-offense is averaging 37.9 points per game on a whopping 7.4 yards per play this season

-Tigers defense is giving up 5.7 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.8 yards per play

-Vanderbilt is 0-6 SU in SEC play; those six losses came by an average of 26 points per game
-offense is only averaging 20.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play at home this season
-Commodores defense is giving up 30.7 points per game vs. offenses that only average 26.3 ppg 

10* Play MISSOURI (-).

-Texas A&M played their best offensive game of the season last week; expect that to carry over

-offense is averaging 32.1 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 26.4 points per game    

-Aggies defense is giving up 35 points per game on 6.2 yards per play on the road

-Mississippi also played their best offensive game of the season last week; expect another one

-offense is averaging 43.3 points per game on 8.1 yards per play at home this season

-Rebels defense is giving up 35.6 ppg on 6.4 yppl vs. offenses that average 28.5 ppg on 5.8 yppl  

9* Play OVER the total.

-Navy has three losses this season, but all three of those losses have come by 10 points or less 

-offense is averaging 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that give up 6.0 yards per play
-Midshipmen defense is allowing just 26 points per game on 4.1 yards per rush on the road

-Notre Dame comes into this game off a crucial loss at Miami; tough spot to bounce back
-offense scored 8 points last week, and they only scored 27 points on Navy in loss last season    
-Irish defense is in bad current form after giving up 78 total points in their last two games 

9* Play NAVY (+).

-UNLV comes in off their worst offensive game of the season; expect strong bounce back tonight  

-offense is averaging 6.2 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.8 yards per play   

-Runnin’ Rebels defense is giving up 30 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road  

-New Mexico returns home off a blowout road loss; expect a peak performance at home tonight

-offense is averaging 31.2 points per game on 6.7 yards per play at home this season

-Lobos defense is giving up 5.8 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.6 yards per play

9* Play OVER the total.

-Toledo off their worst offensive game of the season; scored just 10 points; expect bounce back 

-offense is averaging 36.1 points per game vs. defenses that give up 29.8 points per game     

-Rockets defense is giving up 28.2 points per game on 6.1 yards per play on the road this season 

-Bowling Green returns home off back-to-back road games; expect a peak performance tonight

-offense in good current form; they’ve scored 28 points or more in four of their last five games  

-Falcons defense is giving up 6.6 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.5 yards per play 

9* Play OVER the total.

-Ohio is 8-2 SU on the season, and their offense comes into this game in excellent current form 

-offense is averaging 40.9 points per game vs. defenses that give up 32.4 points per game     

-Bobcats defense is giving up 36 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season 

-Akron returns home off a terrible offensive game where they only scored 14 points at Miami 

-offense is averaging 29.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season   

-Zips defense is giving up 6.0 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.6 yards per play 

9* Play OVER the total.

-Kansas is 0-3 SU on the road with those three losses coming by a combined 100 points
-offense is only averaging 4.9 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play
-Jayhawks defense is giving up 43.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road

-Texas returns home off a road loss at TCU where they scored just 7 points; big bounce back here
-offense is averaging 36.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season

-Longhorns defense is giving up just 21.3 points per game vs. offenses that average 32.9 ppg 

10* Play TEXAS (-).

-Georgia is a perfect 9-0 SU, but they’ve played one good team; beat Notre Dame 20-19
-offense has faced a collection of bad rush defenses making it easy on their true freshman QB
-Bulldogs defense has faced terrible offenses in their last two games; stepping way up in class 

-Auburn playing with revenge after losing 13-7 as 10-point road favorites at Georgia last season

-offense is averaging 36.9 points per game versus defenses that give up 27.8 points per game 
-Tigers defense is allowing just 12.5 points per game on 3.8 yards per play at home

9* Play AUBURN (+).

-SMU played their second worst offensive game of the season last week; expect bounce back 

-offense is averaging 39.6 points per game vs. defenses that give up 31.4 points per game    

-Mustangs defense is giving up 39.7 points per game on 6.8 yards per play on the road

-Navy is also off a couple of recent bad offensive games; expect a strong performance here

-offense is averaging 33.5 points per game on 6.8 yards per play at home this season

-Midshipmen defense gives up 32.2 points per game on 6.8 yards per play at home 

9* Play OVER the total.

-Virginia Tech comes into this game off a crucial loss at Miami; tough spot to bounce back
-offense is only averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that also give up 5.6 yards per play    
-Hokies defense is giving up 4.7 yards per rush and 6.0 yards per play on the road this season

-Georgia Tech has four losses this season, but three of those losses have come by 4 points or less 

-offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.4 yards per play
-Yellow Jackets defense is allowing just 14.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play at home 

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

-BYU is just 2-8 on the season, but they’ve played a very tough schedule; big drop in class here

-offense has faced strong defenses that only give up 25.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play   

-Cougars defense is giving up 31 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season 

-UNLV’s offense is averaging 30 points per game on 6.5 yards per play at home   

-the Rebels average 252.3 rushing yards per game; BYU gives up 192.6 rushing ypg on the road 

-defense gives up 34.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season 

10* Play OVER the total.

-Ball State is 0-5 SU on the road with their last 3 road losses coming by a combined 122 points
-offense is only averaging 4.5 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play
-Cardinals defense is giving up 39.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road

-Northern Illinois returns home off a road loss; expect big bounce performance tonight
-offense has been much better at home where they are averaging 28 points per game this season     

-Huskies defense is giving up just 15.7 points per game on 3.5 yards per play at home

9* Play NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-).

-Kent is 0-5 SU on the road; lost all five games by 21 points or more; have yet to score a TD
-offense is only averaging 4.1 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.5 yards per play
-Golden Flashes defense is giving up 38.2 points per game on 6.7 yards per play on the road

-Western Michigan has lost their last two home games; expect big bounce performance tonight
-offense is averaging 35.3 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 29.2 points per game     

-Broncos defense is giving up just 18.8 points per game on 4.5 yards per play at home

10* Play WESTERN MICHIGAN (-).

-Akron will be playing their fifth road game over their last seven games overall; bad spot  
-offense is only averaging 5.2 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play
-Zips defense is giving up 31.6 points per game on 6.8 yards per play on the road this season 

-Miami Ohio returns home; this will be just their 3rd home game over their last seven games 
-offense has played much better at home where they are averaging 25.2 points per game    

-Redhawks defense is giving up just 20.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play at home 

9* Play MIAMI OHIO (-).

-Arizona has given up 86 total points in their two road conference games this season 
-offense has faced a group of bad defenses that give up 32.8 points per game; big step-up in class 
-Wildcats defense is giving up 30.2 points per game vs. offenses that only average 27.2 ppg

-USC returns home off a big road win at Arizona State; riding some good momentum here

-offense is averaging 36.8 points per game on 6.9 yards per play at home this season 
-Trojans defense is only giving up 25.8 points per game vs. offenses that average 31.1 ppg 

10* Play USC (-).

-Texas playing with revenge after losing 31-9 as 3-point home favorites vs. TCU last season

-offense is averaging 31.2 points per game versus defenses that give up 29.4 points per game 
-Longhorns defense is allowing just 17.5 points per game on 5.1 yards per play on the road 

-TCU comes into this game off their first loss of the season; expect hangover effect here
-offense has faced a collection of bad defenses that give up 33.9 points per game; step-up in class
-Horned Frogs defense has faced terrible offenses in their last three games; stepping way up here   

9* Play TEXAS (+).

-Stanford playing with revenge; lost 42-16 as 7.5-pt home favorites vs. Cougars last season

-offense is averaging 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.8 yards per play
-Cardinal defense is allowing just 20.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play on the road 

-Washington State is just 1-2 SU over their last three games, so they are not in good current form
-offense is only averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that also give up 5.8 yards per play    
-Cougars defense is giving up 141.2 rushing yards per game; Stanford averages 236.1 rypg 

9* Play STANFORD (-).

-Mississippi State is off back-to-back blowout wins where they scored 80 points; regression here 

-offense has been much worse on the road where they only average 23.3 ppg 5.1 yards per play   
-Bulldogs defense is giving up 33.7 points per game on 6.5 yards per play on the road

-Texas A&M off a bye with revenge; lost 35-28 as 10.5-pt road favorites at Miss State last season
-offense is averaging 32.1 points per game versus defenses that allow 27.1 points per game
-Aggies defense allowing just 19.7 points per game on a strong 5.1 yards per play at home 

9* Play TEXAS A&M (+).

-Utah is 0-3 SU over their last three games while getting out-scored 81-57 in those games 
-offense is only averaging 25.3 points per game on the road; two away wins came by 12 points  
-defense is giving up 145.7 rushing yards on the road; Ducks average 244.7 yards on the ground 

-Oregon returns home off back-to-back ugly offensive games; strong bounce back here

-offense is averaging 43.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play at home this season 
-Ducks defense is only giving up 5.0 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.5 yards per play 

9* Play OREGON (+).

-Vanderbilt has lost their last four games by an average of 31.5 points per game
-offense is only averaging 22.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play this season 
-Commodores defense is giving up 33.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play on the road

-South Carolina returns home off a bye for homecoming; expect a strong performance here

-passing offense is averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt, and 6.0 yards per play overall at home
-defense has allowed just 19.3 points per game versus offenses that average 28.6 points per game  

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (-).

-Penn State is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot after their big home win over Michigan
-offense has been much worse on the road where they only average 26 ppg on 5.4 yards per play   
-Nittany Lions defense has faced bad offenses that only average 24.2 ppg on 5.1 yards per play

-Ohio State off a bye with revenge; lost 24-21 as 19-pt road favorites at Penn State last season

-offense is averaging 7.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.7 yards per play
-Buckeyes defense is allowing just 15.4 points per game on 4.5 yards per play this season 

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

-Wyoming has played an easy schedule for a 4-2 record; lost 49-13 to Oregon and 24-3 at Iowa 

-offense is below average; 24 ppg on 4.8 yppl versus defenses that allow 28.9 ppg on 5.9 yppl  
-Cowboys defense has faced offenses that average 21.2 points per game on 4.8 yards per play 

-Boise State has this game circled after losing as 14.5-point favorites at Wyoming last season
-offense is averaging 29 points per game versus defenses that only give up 22.5 points per game
-Broncos defense is allowing just 22.8 points per game on a strong 4.6 yards per play 

10* Play BOISE STATE (-).

-USC has played 5 of their 7 games at home this season; toughest road game to date

-offense has been much worse on the road where they are only averaging 5.1 yards per play   
-Trojans defense has faced bad offenses that only average 5.7 yards per play; big step-up here 

-Notre Dame hell bent on revenge after getting embarrassed 45-27 at USC last season
-offense averaging 40 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.3 yppl
-Irish defense allowing just 16.8 points per game on a stout 4.8 yards per play 

9* Play NOTRE DAME (-).

-Oregon has played two straight poor games against strong defenses; strong bounce back here

-offense is averaging 37.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play; now face a terrible defense  
-Ducks defense is only giving up 4.9 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.4 yards per play 

-UCLA is just 1-3 SU over their last four games, losing those games by an average of 14.7 ppg 
-offense has faced defenses that give up 28.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play  
-Bruins defense is giving up 40.5 points on a whopping 6.7 yards per play this season  

9* Play OREGON (+).

-Louisville is on a 2-game losing streak, and they are stepping way up in defensive class 

-offense has faced opponents that allow 29 points per game on 5.9 yards per play   
-Cardinals defense is giving up 34 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road

-Florida State playing with revenge after losing 63-20 as road favorites in Louisville last season

-offense is averaging 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 4.8 yards per play
-Seminoles defense is allowing just 20.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play 

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

-UCLA’s offense played poorly in their last game, so expect a strong bounce back effort here

-offense is averaging 41.4 points per game on a whopping 7.2 yards per play  

-Bruins defense gives up 53 points and 556.5 yards of offense on 7.7 yards per play on the road 

-Arizona’s offense is averaging a whopping 42 points per game on 6.8 yards per play   

-the Wildcats average 321 rushing yards per game; UCLA gives up 284.2 rushing yards per game 

-defense gave up 72 total points in their last two games and now they are stepping up in class

10* Play OVER the total.

-Michigan State off their big rivalry win at Michigan as 13-point underdogs; natural letdown spot 

-offense is below average; 22.4 ppg on 5.4 yppl versus defenses that allow 23 ppg on 5.4 yppl  
-Spartans defense gave up 284 rushing yards to Notre Dame and Michigan  

-Minnesota off back-to-back losses, and returning home, expect a peak performance here
-offense has a powerful rushing attack that averages 190 yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush
-Golden Gophers defense allowing just 17.2 points per game on a strong 5.0 yards per play 

9* Play MINNESOTA (+).

-Auburn has scored 144 total points in their last three games against terrible teams and defenses
-the Tigers were 3.5-point home underdogs vs. LSU last season now 7.5-point road favorites 
-only road game against a competent defense resulted in a 14-6 loss at Clemson 

-LSU returns home off a 17-16 win at Florida; strong effort after losing their last home game 

-offense is averaging 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.5 yards per play
-Tigers defense is giving up just 18.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play 

9* Play LSU (+).

-South Alabama is 1-4 on the season with three of their four losses coming by 18 points or more

-offense averages just 23.6 points per game versus defense that give up 31.6 points per game   

-Jaguars defense is giving up 40.5 points per game on 7.4 yards per play on the road 

-Troy has won four straight games after losing their season opener 24-13 at Boise State  

-offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.8 yards per play 

-Trojans defense is excellent; allow just 12 points per game on 3.9 yards per play at home 

10* Play TROY (-).

-Kansas State is 3-1 on the season, but all three wins have come at home; lost 14-7 at Vanderbilt

-offense is below average; 37.5 ppg on 6.7 yppl versus defenses that allow 36.9 ppg on 6.8 yppl  
-Wildcats defense has faced offenses that average 20.7 points per game on 5.2 yards per play 

-Texas hell bent on revenge after losing 24-21 at Kansas State last season
-offense is averaging 48.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play at home this season
-Longhorns defense allowing just 21.2 points per game on a strong 5.3 yards per play 

10* Play TEXAS (-).

-Arkansas will play their first true road game of the season against a superior defensive team
-the Razorbacks offense has faced defenses that give up 31.3 ppg; big step-up vs. South Carolina 
-defense gave up 50 points on 7.3 yards per play in their one neutral site game this season

-South Carolina returns home off a 24-17 loss at Texas A&M; expect a strong bounce back here

-passing offense averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt; Arkansas has faced all running teams
-defense has allowed just 20.8 points per game versus offenses that average 30.5 points per game  

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (+).

-West Virginia has played an extremely easy schedule, but their stats are unimpressive
-offense has faced terrible defenses that allow 40.9 points per game on 6.8 yards per play
-Mountaineers defense giving up 6.1 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.7 yppl

-TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season; 4-0 SU so far in 2017
-Horned Frogs offense is averaging a whopping 47.7 points per game on 6.6 yards per play
-defense allowing just 18.5 ppg on 5.2 yards per play; allow just 94.5 rushing yards per game   

9* Play TCU (-).

-Miami, FL is 3-0 vs. awful teams: Bethune Cookman, Toledo and Duke
-their three opponents allow 32.1 ppg on 6.4 yards per play on defense; big step-up in class now   
-Hurricanes defense has faced terrible offenses that only average 5.3 yards per play

-Florida State has won seven consecutive games against their in-state rival

-Seminoles have faced the much tougher schedule vs. teams like Alabama and NC State
-defense is allowing just 5.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 6.3 yards per play  

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (+).

-California’s offense has played back-to-back poor games, but facing a much softer defense here

-balanced offense that averages 153 rushing yards per game and 275.5 passing yards per game 

-Golden Bears defense gave up 30 points on 440 yards of offense in their lone road game

-Oregon’s offense is averaging a whopping 50.7 points per game on 7.1 yards per play   

-the Ducks average 244 yards per game on the ground and 313 yards per game thru the air

-defense gave up 35 and 37 points to the 2 Power 5 teams they played, Nebraska and Arizona St

9* Play OVER the total.

-Mississippi stepping up in class after playing California, Tennessee-Martin and South Alabama 
-the Rebels offense only averaging 36 points per game versus defenses that give up 33 ppg
-defense allowing 184 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush; bad matchup here 

-Alabama is averaging 41.2 ppg on 6.9 yppl versus defenses that allow 24.2 ppg on 5.4 yppl    

-offense is averaging 6.5 yards per rush versus defenses that only give up 4.3 yards per rush 
-defense is outstanding; allowing just 10 points per game on 4.2 yards per play  

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

-Florida State is 0-2 on the season, and with a bye on deck, expect a peak performance

-Seminoles have faced Alabama and NC State, so taking a big step-down in class here
-defense is allowing just 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 6.4 yards per play  

-Wake Forest is 4-0 vs. awful teams: Presbyterian, Boston College, Utah St and Appalachian St
-their four opponents allow 33.8 ppg on 5.7 yards per play on defense; big step-up in class   
-defense has faced terrible offenses that only average 20.2 ppg on 5.0 yppl 

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

-USC’s offense has played back-to-back poor games, so expect a breakout performance tonight
-despite scoring just 57 total points in their last two games, Trojans averaging 37 ppg on 6.5 yppl
-Trojans defense has given up 20 points or more in every game; now stepping up in class 

-Washington State’s offense is averaging 43.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play  
-the Cougars average 432.5 passing yards per game on 7.8 yards per pass attempt 
-defense has faced four bad offenses that only average 18.6 ppg on 4.8 yppl; big step-up vs. USC  

9* Play OVER the total.

-Notre Dame hell bent on revenge after losing 36-28 at home as 7.5-point favorites last season
-offense averaging 39 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.4 yppl
-defense allowing just 18.7 points per game on a stout 4.6 yards per play 

-Michigan State’s two wins this season have come against less talented MAC teams

-offense is below average; 31.5 ppg on 6.1 yppl versus defenses that allow 37.3 ppg on 6.3 yppl  
-Spartans defense has faced offenses that only average 21 points per game on 4.6 yards per play 

10* Play NOTRE DAME (-).

-Mississippi State is one of the most improved teams in the country after going 6-7 in 2016
-Bulldogs have excellent rushing attack that averages 298 yards per game on 6.5 yards per rush
-defense has only given up 28 total points on a minuscule 3.3 yards per play in their three games 

-Georgia’s lone win against a ‘real’ team came by just a single point (20-19) over Notre Dame
-offensive strength is rushing, but Mississippi State’s defense only gives up 2.6 yards per rush
-defense taking a big step-up in class after facing a group of offenses that only average 27 ppg 

9* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (+).

-TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season; 3-0 SU so far in 2017
-revenge game after losing 31-6 to Oklahoma State as 6.5-point home favorites last season
-defense allowing just 14.3 ppg on 4.5 yards per play; allow just 92.3 rushing yards per game   

-Oklahoma State off three straight blowout wins causing this pointspread to be inflated
-offense has faced three terrible defenses that allow 39.9 points per game on 7.8 yards per play
-Cowboys defense taking a big step-up in class against a TCU offense that averages 7.0 yppl

9* Play TCU (+).

-NC State will play their first true road game of the season against a superior team
-the Wolfpack offense has faced three bad defenses that give up 30.4 ppg; big step-up vs. FSU 
-below average stats on defense, giving up 5.6 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.3 yppl  

-Florida State playing just their second game of the season after losing to Alabama 3 weeks ago

-offense will be led by QB James Balckman; an edge since NC State has zero film on him
-defense is loaded with 9 returning starters; best in the ACC and one of the best in the country

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

-Utah comes into this game with a 3-0 SU record, but the Utes had to travel on a short week
-the Utes offense has faced three bad defenses that give up 33.8 ppg on 5.8 yards per play 
-defense has faced three terrible offenses that only average 14.6 ppg on 4.3 yards per play 

-Arizona returns home off 47-point road win; lost their previous home game so focused spot

-offense is averaging 47 points per game on 6.5 yards per play; big step-up for Utah’s defense
-defense is only giving up 19.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play; step-up for Utah’s offense  

9* Play ARIZONA (+).

-Stanford off a 42-24 loss at USC; head coach David Shaw is 20-4 ATS off a SU loss 
-Cardinal offense averaging 7.1 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.8 yards per play
-defense giving up just 24.5 points per game versus offenses that average 32.3 points per game   

-San Diego State is very young; only 11 returning starters and they lost 23 seniors from last year
-defense stepping way up in class going from 22.8 points per game opponents to 43 ppg Stanford 
-offense also stepping up in class; Stanford allows 9.8 points per game less than opponents faced

9* Play STANFORD (-).

-Georgia State faced Tennessee State and lost 17-10; big step-up in class for first road game
-the Panthers offense was terrible last season while averaging just 19.9 points per game
-defense gave up 238 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per rush to a FCS team  

-Penn State most experienced team in the Big Ten with 18 returning starters; 2-0 this season

-offense averaging 42.5 points per game on 7.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 6.3 yppl  
-defense allowing just 7 points per game on a minuscule 3.4 yards per play 

10* Play PENN STATE (-).

-Oregon is one of the most improved teams in the country this season
-new head coach Willie Taggart has an experienced team with 17 returning starters back
-offense has scored a total of 119 points on a whopping 8.1 yards per play in their two games 

-Wyoming’s lone win this season has come against FCS Gardner Webb
-offense only averaging 15 points per game on 4.8 yards per play; can’t trade points with Oregon
-defense has faced offenses that average 17 points per game on 4.5 yards per play; big step-up 

9* Play OREGON (-).

-Colorado State will play their first true road game of the season against a superior team
-the Rams offense only averaging 33 points per game versus defenses that give up 29 ppg
-below average stats on offense, and now facing one of the best defenses in the country

-Alabama playing second straight home game before hitting the road for their first SEC game

-offense is averaging 5.9 yards per rush versus defenses that only give up 4.3 yards per rush 
-defense is outstanding; allowing just 8.5 points per game on 4.3 yards per play  

9* Play ALABAMA (-).

-Boise State has gone Over the total in 8 of their last 12 road games
-the Broncos are really young in the secondary, and they’ll be under siege all game long
-offense was really vanilla last week, but they have no choice but to open up in this shootout

-Washington State’s offense accounted for 511 yards in their 31-0 win over Montana State
-the Cougars scored 28 points in Boise last season; that game had 59 total points scored
-QB Luke Falk completed 55 of 71 passes, and he threw for 480 yards in the game noted above

9* Play OVER the total.

-TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season
-revenge game for Horned Frogs after losing 41-38 at home in 2016 despite a 572-404 yard edge
-defense held Jackson State to just 65 total yards of offense and 1-for-13 on third downs

-Arkansas is very young; 9 true freshmen playing; 2 starting on the OL and in the secondary
-Razorbacks defense is converting from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment; not good against potent offense
-QB Austin Allen was under consistent pressure against a lesser opponent last week

9* Play TCU (-).

-Middle Tennessee State was terrible in their 28-6 home loss to Vanderbilt last week
-the Blue Raiders offense managed just 166 yards passing and 49 yards on the ground
-secondary gave up 296 passing yards on whopping 10.6 yards per attempt to Vanderbilt 

-Syracuse is experienced team with 19 returning starters in second year under HC Dino Babers 

-offense racked up 586 yards in their 50-6 win last week over Central Connecticut State
-QB Eric Dungey threw for 270 yards per game at home with a 10/4 TD/INT ratio in 2016

10* Play SYRACUSE (-).

-Tennessee was -70.6 ypg in SEC play last season despite an overall 9-4 SU record

-Vols must replace dual threat QB Joshua Dobbs who accounted for most of their offense

-defense gave up 28.8 ppg on 449 ypg, including 219 rushing yards per game on 5.0 ypr

-Georgia Tech’s current roster is 5-1 SU against SEC teams

-excellent triple option rushing offense that averaged 258 ypg on 5.5 ypr last season

-head coach Paul Johnson is 6-2 ATS away from home as an underdog with this current roster

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

This game is being played on a neutral field in Arlington, Texas.  The line has gone higher since Florida suspended ten players this week, however it is an overreaction by the oddsmakers and betting public, and this has now created additional value with the underdog Gators.  Florida went 9-4 SU last year, including an impressive 30-3 Outback Bowl win over Iowa as a 3-point favorite.  This is a deep, veteran team that still has plenty of talent, even after the recent suspensions.  Starting running back Jordan Scarlett will not play, but this means second-leading rusher Lamical Perine will get more carries.  Scarlett will be joined by WR Antonio Callaway on the sidelines, however his loss might actually boost the team's morale as insiders report he was not well liked by his teammates.  Head coach Jim McElwain announced Feleipe Franks will start under center and he has a strong arm and solid pocket presence.  The posted total is a low in this game (O/U 43) which suggests a defensive, low-scoring game and that favors the underdog, especially since Florida is 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral field games with a low total in this range.

Michigan went 10-3 SU last year, but they lost 17 of their 22 starters from that team.  The Wolverines now have just five returning starters overall with only one of those being on defense. This makes them the least experienced team in FBS football.  The offense will be breaking in several new players against a strong Florida defense that allowed just 16.8 points per game on 4.7 yards per play last year (versus opponents that averaged 28.6 ppg and 5.9 yppl).  Florida has been making solid strides under Jim McElwain who is now 29-8 SU entering his third year as head coach at the school.  The recent suspensions should motivate and focus the Gators on Saturday afternoon and has created line value with a strong defensive underdog.

9* Play FLORIDA (+).

South Carolina went 6-7 SU last year in Will Muschamp's first year with the school.  The defensive minded coach didn’t help the offense as that unit averaged just 20.8 points per game last year.  In 2016, South Carolina played six games away from home and averaged a meager 15 points per contest and just 296 yards of total offense.  The Gamecocks will have an extremely difficult time moving the ball consistently in this game against a strong defense like NC State.  We expect the Gamecocks to struggle this year, especially since they’ll be playing the fourth toughest schedule in the country amongst FBS teams.

NC State went 7-6 SU last season, and the team returns 17 starters which makes them the most experienced team in the ACC.  It all starts with an excellent defense that held opponents to just 22.8 points per game last season.  Their defensive line clamped down on the run holding opponents to just 109 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry.  NC State’s excellent defense is led by Bradley Chubb who ranks 12th in school history with 34 tackles for loss and 10th in school history with 16 sacks.  The Wolfpack is 12-4 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons, and 8-2 ATS over that span out of conference.  NC State is the superior team, and this pointspread is extremely cheap based on my power ratings.  We’ll back the Wolfpack in this game in Charlotte, NC on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play NC STATE (-).

Akron went just 5-7 SU last season, and they only return 15 starters for this season.  This is a group that failed miserably when they took a step up in competition.  The Zips lost 54-10 at Wisconsin last year and 41-3 at Oklahoma in 2015 in two recent "paycheck" games.  QB Thomas Woodson threw for just 108 yards in that loss to the Badgers.  Akron is 2-6 ATS the last three seasons in the month of September.  The Zips are just 3-6 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.

Penn State went 11-3 SU last season, and the Nittany Lions return 18 starters from a team that made the Rose Bowl.  They are the most experienced team in the Big 10 and feature an offense that returned all but one production player.  Signal caller Trace McSorley broke school single-season passing yard and touchdown records in just his first season starting.  Saquon Barkley leads a strong rushing attack that will take advantage of an Akron defense that gave up 225 rushing yards per game (5.0 yards per carry) last season.  On defense, more than 72% of the tacklers return to a unit that gave up just 25.4 points per game last season.  Head coach James Franklin is one win away from picking up number 50 in his career, and he will be able to do so in easy fashion on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play PENN STATE (-).

Utah State went just 3-9 SU last season, and they only return 10 total starters for this season.  The Aggies’ biggest concerns come on the defensive line, and that’s a big negative for tonight’s game against Wisconsin.  Utah State lost four of their top five defensive lineman, including their best player from a year ago.  Even with an experienced group, the Aggies gave up 203 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush last season.  Things will be even worse this season, especially against tonight’s opponent.  Utah State also has a pedestrian offense that has averaged just 23.9, 29, and 26.9 points per game over the last three seasons.  In their out of conference road opener last season, the Aggies only scored 7 points in a 38-point loss at USC.  We expect a similar outcome tonight.

Wisconsin went 11-3 SU last season, and the Badgers return 15 starters from that team that won the Cotton Bowl.  Wisconsin is in their third season under head coach Paul Chryst, so we expect even more improvement this season.  The Badgers are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in home openers under Chryst, winning those two games by a combined score of 112-10.  Wisconsin has a powerful running game that will move the ball at will in this game.  Last season, the Badgers ran for 203 yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  Wisconsin also possess a very strong defense that has given up just 15.6 and 13.7 points per game over the last two seasons.  This game is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Badgers on Friday night. 

10* Play WISCONSIN (-).

Clemson and Alabama will meet once again for the National Title; the Crimson Tide won 45-40 last year.  Clemson had a surprising season by going 13-1.  The Tigers were projected to regress after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 14-1 team.  Clemson certainly has a terrific team, but this is a poor matchup for them against Alabama.  Clemson’s offense faced defenses that gave up 26.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Tigers will now face an Alabama defense that only gave up 11.4 points per game on 3.9 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 30.2 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide defense was also stout away from home where they gave up just 16 points per game on 4.1 yards per play.  While it’s true Clemson gave Alabama all they could handle in last year’s game, the Tigers still trailed by 12 points with less than 15 seconds to play before scoring a spread-covering touchdown.

Alabama is a perfect 14-0 SU this season with their closest game being a 5-point win over Mississippi way back in Week 3.  The Rebels were the only team to beat Alabama the previous season as well.  Thirteen of their fourteen wins this season have come by 10 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 27.9 points per game.  Alabama’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 248.8 yards per game on the ground and 212.1 yards per game thru the air.  Overall, Alabama averaged 39.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 25.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Alabama is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide in the championship game on Monday night.

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

Western Michigan and Wisconsin matchup well for a high-scoring game on Monday afternoon.  Overall this season, Western Michigan averaged 43.5 points per game on 6.8 yards per play versus defenses that gave up just 31.0 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Western Michigan actually scored more points than their seasonal average in seven of their thirteen games, and they scored 22 points or more in every game this season.  The Broncos were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 237 yards per game and threw for 260 yards per game.  Wisconsin’s defense only faced one similar offense this season, and they gave up 30 points on 411 yards of total offense to the Buckeyes.

Wisconsin’s offense averaged 28.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that only allowed 24.1 points per game on 5.2 yards per play this year.  The Badgers’ offense really came alive down the stretch as they scored 31 points or more in their last four games.  Overall, Wisconsin scored 30 points or more in six of their games this season.  Western Michigan’s defense will be in for a long game against Wisconsin because the Broncos are not used to facing teams in the MAC that are built like the Badgers.  Against the five bowl teams they faced this season, Western Michigan’s defense gave up 24 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Overall this season, the Broncos allowed 5.8 yards per play versus a weak schedule of opponents that averaged just 5.5 yppl.  Look for a high-scoring Cotton Bowl between Western Michigan and Wisconsin on Monday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Iowa went 8-4 SU this season with three of their losses coming by 8 points or less.  The Hawkeyes played a tough schedule, facing seven teams that made a bowl game.  Iowa held up very well against those opponents.  Overall, Iowa’s offense averaged 26.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 25.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Hawkeyes were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 172 yards per game and threw for 161 yards per game.  Iowa’s offense also travelled well as they averaged 23.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season, going 4-1 SU in those games.

Florida also had an 8-4 SU record this season.  The Gators lost their last two games by a combined score of 85-29 because they were decimated by injuries.  Florida’s offense underachieved all season as they only averaged 23.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 26.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Florida will now face an Iowa defense that only gave up 17.9 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 26.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this year.  My power ratings actually make Iowa -1 in this game, so getting the Hawkeyes as an underdog presents solid value.  We’ll take the points with Iowa this Outback Bowl on Monday afternoon.

10* Play IOWA (+).

Ohio State went 11-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Penn State.  Ohio State played a brutal schedule this season while facing nine teams that also made a bowl game.  Overall, the Buckeyes’ offense averaged 42.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that only allowed 26.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Ohio State owns a potent rushing attack that averaged 258.3 yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush.  They put those numbers up against defenses that only gave up 164.5 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  In four games in which Clemson’s defense gave up 150 rushing yards or more, they allowed 36, 34, and 43 points in three games.  They lost to Pittsburgh, and were fortunate in coming back from fourth quarter deficits against Florida State and Louisville.

Clemson had another strong season by going 12-1 SU, but as mentioned above, they were extremely fortunate not to have more losses.  The Tigers certainly have a terrific team, but this is a poor matchup for them against Ohio State.  Clemson’s offense faced defenses that gave up 27.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Tigers will will now face an Ohio State defense that only gave up 14.2 points per game on 4.3 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 30.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  My power ratings make Ohio State -3.5 over Clemson, so laying less than a field goal with the Buckeyes presents good value in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Washington went 12-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming against USC who closed the season by winning eight consecutive games.  Washington’s offense averaged 44.5 points per game on 7.1 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 33 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Huskies were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 210 yards per game and threw for 267.2 yards per game.  Washington’s offense travelled well, and they actually averaged more points per game (48) and more yards per play (7.6) than their overall season averages.  The Huskies are led by shrewd head coach Chris Petersen who has experience knocking off big name teams in bowl games. 

Alabama steamrolled their opponents en route to a perfect 13-0 regular season.  There’s no question that Alabama has the most talented team in the country.  However, the pointspread on this game is simply way too high.  My power ratings only make Alabama -10, so there’s a lot of value in taking Washington in this game.  Alabama’s offense faced defenses that gave up 26 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide will will now face a Washington defense that only gave up 17.2 points per game on 4.6 yards per play this season.  Washington is plenty capable of keeping this game close throughout, so we’ll take the points with the Huskies on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WASHINGTON (+).

Florida State went 9-3 SU this season with their three losses coming against Louisville, North Carolina, and Clemson.  The Seminoles blew leads late in the fourth quarter against the Tar Heels and Tigers, and they only lost those two games by a combined 5 points.  Florida State should be an 11-1 team.  Florida State played a brutal schedule this season while facing nine teams that also made a bowl game.  Five of those teams have already played, and they’ve gone a perfect 5-0 in their bowl games.  Overall, Florida State’s offense averaged 35.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that only allowed 27.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Seminoles were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 206.7 yards per game and threw for 267.6 yards per game.  Florida State’s offense also travelled well as they averaged 34.8 points per game on 6.5 yards per play on the road this season. 

Michigan had a strong 10-2 SU record on the season, and many believe they were a year too early.  The Wolverines were in the hunt for the playoffs, but their gut-wrenching loss in overtime at Ohio State kept them out.  There’s no question that Michigan has a terrific team, but the Wolverines played a relatively easy schedule expect for their games against Ohio State and Wisconsin.  Michigan only beat Wisconsin 14-7 on their home field and lost against the Buckeyes.  The Wolverines’ defense was fantastic this season, but they are taking a major step-up in class against the Florida State offense in this game.  We’ll take the points with Florida State in this game on Friday night.  

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (+).

Nebraska and Tennessee matchup well for a high-scoring game on Friday afternoon.  Nebraska will likely start senior Ryker Fyfe in place of injured Tommy Armstrong, but we don’t expect much drop off in production.  Overall this season, Nebraska only averaged 26.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  However, the Cornhuskers faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only gave up 27.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Nebraska actually scored more points than their seasonal average in seven of their twelve games, so it’s clear that the 30 total points they scored against Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa skewed their stats.  Nebraska is taking a major step-down in defensive class against Tennessee in this game.  The Volunteers’ defense was horrendous away from home where they allowed 33.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.

Tennessee’s offenses was terrific this season as they averaged 36.2 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only allowed 25.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Volunteers’ offense was even good away from home where they averaged 34.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Tennessee scored 38 points or more in six of their twelve games this season.  Nebraska’s defense will be in for a long game against Tennessee.  The Cornhuskers faced the slow and plodding offenses of the Big 10, but now they will face the speed of a powerful SEC offense.  Despite facing weak offenses, Nebraska’s defense was terrible on the road where they gave up 32 points per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Nebraska and Tennessee on Friday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma State went 9-3 SU this season with their three losses coming against Central Michigan, Baylor, and Oklahoma.  That loss to Central Michigan came on a fluky play at the buzzer, and it should not have counted.  The Cowboys played a tough schedule this season while facing seven teams that also made a bowl game.  And Oklahoma State held up very well against those opponents.  Overall, Oklahoma State’s offense averaged 38.7 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 33.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Cowboys were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 170 yards per game and threw for 322.5 yards per game.  Oklahoma State’s offense also travelled well as they averaged 32.4 points per game on 6.7 yards per play on the road this season. 

Colorado has a strong 10-3 record on the season, but the Buffaloes played a relatively easy schedule outside of the three teams they lost to.  Colorado’s offense played a terrible slate of opposing defenses, and they just barely played above average football.  The Buffaloes averaged 32.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Colorado will now face an Oklahoma State defense that only gave up 27.1 points per game on the road this season.  My power ratings made this game a Pick, so getting a full field goal with Oklahoma State presents some excellent value.  We’ll take the points with the Cowboys in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (+).

West Virginia has a strong 10-2 record on the season, but the Mountaineers played a relatively easy schedule.  Both of their games against better opponents resulted in blowout losses; Oklahoma State beat them 37-20 and Oklahoma beat them 56-28.  West Virginia played four other teams that made bowl games; BYU, Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor with the latter three all opening as underdogs in their post-season games.  West Virginia’s offense played a terrible slate of opposing defenses, and they just barely played above average football.  The Mountaineers averaged 32.6 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 30.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  West Virginia is now taking a major step-up in defensive class against Miami, FL in this game as the Hurricanes only give up 18.9 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.     

Miami went 8-4 SU in their first season under head coach Mark Richt.  They could have had a much better record as three of their four losses came by 7 points or less with two of those losses coming by 3 points or less.  The Hurricanes played a brutal schedule this season while facing seven teams that also made a bowl game.  And Miami held up very well against those opponents.  Overall, Miami’s offense averaged 34.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  The Hurricanes will now face a West Virginia defense that allowed 25 points per game on 5.9 yards per play on the road this season.  Miami is better on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes in this game on Wednesday night.  

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Baylor and Boise State matchup well for a high-scoring game on Tuesday night.  Baylor has a potent offense that is extremely well-balanced.  Overall this season, the Bears averaged 34.9 points per game with 250.2 rushing yards and 273.1 passing yards per game.  They averaged 6.1 yards per play against a collection of defensive opponents that allowed 33.6 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Baylor will now face a Boise State defense that has good seasonal numbers that were obtained against a slew of weak offenses.  The Broncos’ defense will face the best offense they’ve seen all season, and they’ve had trouble against strong rushing offenses.  In five games in which they allowed 200 rushing yards or more, Boise State gave up 25 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

Boise State’s offenses was terrific this season as they averaged 35.6 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  The Broncos’ offense was even better away from home where they averaged 38.7 points per game on an incredible 7.7 yards per play.  The Broncos scored 42 points or more in five games this season.  Baylor’s defense gave up 30.4 points per game this season, so it doesn’t make sense that they only allowed 5.5 yards per play.  Those numbers don’t jive, and in fact, the Bears allowed 35 points or more in six of their twelve games this season.  Against the five bowl teams they faced, Baylor gave up 39 points per game while allowing an average of 293 rushing yards and 225 passing yards per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Baylor and Boise State in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Maryland and Boston College are evenly matched and my power ratings actually make Boston College a 1-point favorite, so there is a bit of value on the underdog.  The teams played similar schedules; Maryland #55 and Boston College #63.  Their overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board as well.  Maryland’s offense underachieved this season as the Terrapins only averaged 25.4 points per game versus defenses that allowed 28.2 points per game.  Maryland’s offense was even worse away from home where they only averaged 21.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Terrapins will now face a Boston College defense that only allowed 24.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play away from home this season.

Boston College went just 6-6 SU on the season, and blowout losses to Clemson, Louisville, Florida State, and Virginia Tech really skewed their offensive stats.  Against those four teams, the Eagles only averaged 6 points per game on 3.0 yards per play.  In their other eight games, Boston College’s offense averaged 25.6 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Boston College will now face a terrible Maryland defense that gave up 29 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only averaged 27.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Terrapins’ defense was even worse on the road where they allowed 34.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  We’ll take the points with Boston College in this game on Monday afternoon.

9* Play BOSTON COLLEGE (+).

Middle Tennessee State and Hawaii were all offense and no defense this season.  The Blue Raiders averaged 40.1 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 34.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  The Blue Raiders also scored 34.7 points per game on the road, so their offense travelled well this season.  Middle Tennessee State will score at will on a terrible Hawaii defense that gave up 37.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 29.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play. 

Hawaii went just 6-7 on the season, and in a normal year, the Rainbow Warriors would not be playing in a bowl game.  But without enough 6-win qualifiers, Hawaii was chosen to play in this game on their home field.  Hawaii’s offense was significantly better at home where they averaged 33.3 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  They were well-balanced in those games while averaging 212.5 yards per game on the ground and 208.5 yards per game thru the air.  Hawaii will now face a terrible Middle Tennessee State defense that allowed 34.4 points per game versus offenses that only averaged 27.1 points per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Middle Tennessee State and Hawaii in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Louisiana Tech and Navy are all offense and no defense, so we expect a high-scoring shootout on Friday afternoon.  Louisiana Tech has a potent offense that averaged 44 points per game on a whopping 7.6 yards per play this season.  The Bulldogs were well-balanced as they ran for 156.2 yards and threw for 359.8 yards per game this season.  Louisiana Tech will be facing a poor Navy defense that allowed 29.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season.  Against the seven bowl teams they faced this season, Navy allowed 35 points on 470 yards of offense while giving up 6.6 yards per play.   

Navy’s offense averaged 37.4 points per game on 6.8 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 29.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Navy is a running team that averaged 310.9 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush this season.  Louisiana Tech’s defense played below average football as the Bulldogs gave up 32.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Against the seven bowl teams they faced this season, Louisiana Tech allowed 38 points on 431 yards of offense per game.  Navy did lose their starting quarterback prior to their last game against Army, but with extra time to prepare, we expect minimal drop off in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Louisiana Tech and Navy on Friday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Eastern Michigan was a much improved team this season, especially on the offensive side of the football.  The Eagles averaged 30.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 31.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Eagles were well-balanced as they ran for 158.2 yards and threw for 295.7 yards per game this season.  Eastern Michigan will be facing a poor Old Dominion defense that allowed 33.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play away from home.  Against the five bowl teams they faced, the Monarchs gave up 39 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.

Old Dominion has an explosive offense that averaged 36 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 32.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Monarchs were also a well-balanced offense as they ran for 199.1 yards and threw for 237.8 yards per game this season.  Old Dominion’s offense will score at will on a terrible Eastern Michigan defense that got shredded all season long.  The Eagles gave up 30.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 28.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  On the road, Eastern Michigan allowed 35.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between Eastern Michigan and Old Dominion on Friday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Colorado State went 7-5 on the season, but they needed to win four of their last five games to become bowl eligible.  The Rams went just 3-5 SU against other bowl teams, and they lost those five games by an average of 14.6 points per game.  Colorado State’s three wins against bowl teams came against UTSA and New Mexico who played each other, and San Diego State who beat a disinterested Houston team.  Colorado State’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak group of defenses that gave up 29.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

Idaho went 8-4 during the regular season, and they played a much tougher schedule than Colorado State.  Two of the Vandals’ four losses came against Washington and Washington State; the Huskies are in the playoffs while the Cougars will play in the Holiday Bowl.  Idaho played average offense this season, but the Vandals will face a poor Colorado State defense that gave up 33 points per game on 424 yards while allowing 6.1 yards per play versus the eight bowl teams they faced.  With this game in their home state and against a team that shouldn’t be laying this many points into any team, we’ll take Idaho plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play IDAHO (+).

Wyoming has a strong 8-5 record this season, but the Cowboys played an extremely easy schedule.  In fact, Wyoming played the 54th easiest schedule this season, and they got most of their wins at home.  Wyoming went 6-1 SU at home, but just 2-4 SU on the road where they lost by an average of 15.5 points per game.  The Cowboys had solid offensive numbers; they averaged 37.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  However, Wyoming played a weak slate of opposing defenses that gave up 29 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Cowboys are now taking a major step-up in defensive class against BYU in this game as the Cougars’ defense only gives up 19.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.     

BYU went 8-4 in the regular season, but they could have had a much better record as all four of their losses came by a combined 8 points with each loss coming by 3 points or less.  The Cougars lost quarterback Taysom Hill in their season finale, but Tanner Mangum has plenty of experience while filling in for the often injured Hill over the last couple of seasons.  BYU’s offense won’t skip a beat with Mangum under center, and most say he’s a much better passer than Hill, so the Cougars will do what they’ve done all year.  Overall, BYU’s offense is averaging 30.0 points per game, and they will face a Wyoming defense that allowed 42.5 points per game on a whopping 7.2 yards per play on the road this season.  We’ll lay the points with BYU in this game on Wednesday night.  

9* Play BYU (-).

Southern Mississippi has a potent offense that averages 33.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play this season.  The Golden Eagles were well-balanced as they ran for 177.8 yards and threw for 294.2 yards per game this season.  Southern Mississippi will be facing a poor Louisiana Lafayette defense that faced an extremely weak slate of opposing offenses this season.  Overall, the Ragin’ Cajuns allowed 25.1 points per game.  But against the two good offenses they faced, Lafayette gave up 45 points to Boise State and 35 points to Georgia.  Southern Mississippi has a much better offense than Georgia, and they are comparable to Boise State, so the Ragin’ Cajuns defense will get exposed in this game.

Louisiana Lafayette’s offense struggled at times this season, but they faced a solid group of defenses.  That won’t be the case in this game as Southern Mississippi has a terrible defense that got shredded all season long.  The Golden Eagles give up 30.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  On the road, the Golden Eagles were absolutely atrocious while allowing 37 points per game on a whopping 7.8 yards per play.  Louisiana Lafayette’s offense did score 30.2 points per game away from home this season, so they are quite capable of taking advantage of the weak Southern Mississippi defense in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Southern Mississippi and Louisiana Lafayette on Saturday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Penn State is one of the hottest teams in the country as they come into tonight’s Big 10 Championship game against Wisconsin on an 8-game winning streak while going 7-0-1 ATS.  The Nittany Lions’ offense has been fantastic this season while averaging 36.6 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 25.8 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Wisconsin has strong defensive numbers, but they’ve faced offenses that only average 28.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Badgers will now face a Penn State offense that averages 8.5 points per game and 0.8 yards per play more than the offenses Wisconsin has faced this season.

Wisconsin has an identical 10-2 SU record as Penn State.  The Badgers are also on a 6-game winning streak, but their defense has been a bit leaky after giving up 37 points in their last two games.  That doesn’t seem like a lot of points on the surface, but Wisconsin held their previous four opponents to a total of 36 points, including an overtime game.  There’s no denying the fact that Wisconsin has a strong defense, but they are taking a monumental step-up in class against the Penn State offense in this game.  Wisconsin’s offense is only averaging 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.2 yards per play, so they’ve been anything but explosive this season.  Penn State’s defense only gives up 4.8 yards per play.  We’ll take the points with Penn State in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play PENN STATE (+).

Florida is 8-2 SU on the season, and they come into this game off their biggest win of the year.  The Gators won 16-10 as 14-point road underdogs at LSU last Saturday to clinch their spot in the SEC title game next week.  Florida is in that game regardless of what happens in this game, so we expect a natural letdown to happen, especially considering the Gators are decimated by injuries.  Florida is expected to be without these starters against Florida State: linebackers Jarrad Davis and Alex Anzalone, safeties Nick Washington and Marcus Maye, defensive end Bryan Cox Jr., quarterback Luke Del Rio and center Cam Dillard.  Florida’s offense is only averaging 25.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that give up 27 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Gators will now face a Florida State defense that only gives up 19 points per game on 5.4 yards per play at home.

Florida State comes into this game with an 8-3 record after winning their last two games by a combined score of 90-21.  The Seminoles are averaging 35.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that give up 27.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Florida has strong defensive numbers, but they’ve faced offenses that only average 27 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Florida State’s running game averages 202.9 yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.  Florida is allowing 157.8 rushing yards per game on the road, and with their long list of defensive injuries, we expect the Seminoles to dominate this game on the ground.  We’ll lay the points with Florida State in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Oregon and Oregon State match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday afternoon.  Oregon has a potent offense.  The Ducks are averaging 36.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 28.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Oregon will now face an Oregon State defense that has been atrocious this season.  The Beavers are giving up 31.1 points per game versus offenses that average 30.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Oregon scored 52 points on 674 yards of offense against the Beavers last season. 

Oregon State’s offense has sub-par numbers this season, but they’ve played a tough slate of defensive opponents.  The Beavers have faced defenses that only give up 28 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Oregon State will now face a woeful Oregon defense that is giving up 42.1 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 32.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Oregon State scored 42 points on 427 yards of offense against the Ducks last season.  We expect a high-scoring game between Oregon and Oregon State on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

West Virginia comes into this game with an 8-2 SU record, but the Mountaineers are a phony team.  They’ve played an extremely weak schedule, and in the games against decent opposition, the Mountaineers are just 2-2 SU with the two wins coming by a total of 4 points.  West Virginia had a huge home game against Oklahoma last Saturday night, and they proceeded to lose that game by 28 points (56-28).  That demoralizing loss will leave the Mountaineers with a hangover, and the fact that they are laying a full touchdown on the road creates even more value on Iowa State; my power ratings say West Virginia should be just a 3.5-point favorite in this game.  West Virginia’s offense is averaging 31.8 points per game, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.5 points per game.  The Mountaineers will now play an Iowa State defense that is only allowing 25.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play at home.

Iowa State has a poor 3-8 SU record, but the Cyclones have been playing much better football down the stretch.  Iowa State has won their last two games after their offense scored a total of 97 points.  The Cyclones were competitive in four of their previous five losses as well; they lost by 10, 7, 5, and 3 points.  Iowa State’s offense has been fantastic at home all season.  The Cyclones are averaging 37 points per game on a whopping 6.9 yards per play.  West Virginia’s defense has given up 134 total points in their last four games, so they are in poor current form.  We’ll take Iowa State plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play IOWA STATE (+).

Arizona State and Arizona match-up well for a high-scoring game on Friday night.  Arizona State has a strong passing offense.  The Sun Devils are averaging 33.2 points per game and 7.5 yards per pass versus defenses that are giving up just 30.9 points per game and 7.0 yards per pass.  Arizona State will face an Arizona defense that is allowing their opponents to score 38.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play, including 8.0 yards per pass.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against offenses that average just 30.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play and 7.5 yards per pass.  Arizona State’s offense will be a step-up in class for Arizona’s defense, so expect the Wildcats to give up more than their season average tonight.

Arizona’s offense has struggled this season, but we expect their best offensive performance in this game.  Arizona has faced an extremely tough slate of opposing defenses that have held their opponents to just 24.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Arizona will now face a woeful Arizona State defense that is giving up 38.4 points per game on 6.8 yards per play versus offenses that average just 33.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  The Sun Devils give up a terrible 41.4 points per game on 7.0 yards per play on the road.  Arizona’s offense is taking a major step-down in defensive class based on the above numbers.  Look for a high-scoring game between Arizona State and Arizona on Friday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Boise State comes into this game with an impressive 10-1 record, but they’ve played a woeful schedule to say the least.  The Broncos have been 14.5-point road favorites or greater in all five of their away games this season, and that alone speaks volumes about their poor competition.  Boise State is just a single-digit road favorite in this game, and based on my power ratings, they are laying a few points too many.  Overall, Boise State’s offense is averaging 37 points per game on 7.1 yards per play, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 30.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Broncos will now face an Air Force defense that is holding opponents to just 25.8 points per game at home, and just 5.6 yards per play overall. 

Air Force will be the best team Boise State has faced so far this season.  The Falcons own an 8-3 record on the year with all three losses coming by 9 points or less.  Air Force has played three of their last four games on the road, and with this being their season finale at home, we expect a peak performance this afternoon.  Air Force is averaging 37.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.  The Falcons average a whopping 382.4 rushing yards per game at home, and since Boise State’s defense is giving up 201.6 rushing yards per game on the road, we expect Air Force to control this game on the ground.  We’ll take Air Force plus the generous points in this game on Friday afternoon.

10* Play AIR FORCE (+).

Arkansas comes into this game off a 38-10 blowout home loss to LSU last week.  We won a Best Bet against the Razorbacks in that game, and we’ll go against them once again this week, especially since they are back on the road where they’ve been absolutely terrible this season.  Arkansas has only played three away games, and they are just 1-2 SU with their lone win coming in overtime.  The Razorbacks’ defense is giving up 46.3 points per game on a whopping 8.2 yards per play on the road this season.  Overall, Arkansas has a woeful run defense that has allowed opponents to run for 218 yards per game on 6.3 yards per rush, including an atrocious 368 rushing yards per game (8.8 ypr) on the road.  Their inability to stop the run will have a major impact on the outcome of this game.

Mississippi State returns home off a 51-3 blowout loss at Alabama.  That loss was ugly, but Alabama is the best team in the country and the Bulldogs can’t compete with superior teams.  Mississippi State will now play a team on their level, and we expect a strong bounce back performance in this game.  The Bulldogs are averaging 28.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 25.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Mississippi State’s offense is going from facing the best defense in the country to facing one of the worst defenses in the SEC.  We’ll lay the points with Mississippi State on Saturday night.  

10* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (-).

Virginia Tech comes into this game with a 7-3 SU record, but they are just 4-6 ATS, including a 3-game losing streak against the spread.  The Hokies lost to Georgia Tech last week as 14-point home favorites.  That’s a terrible loss, and now they are stepping up in class while playing their third road game over the last four weeks.  Virginia Tech’s offense is in terrible current form as they’ve only scored 44 total points in their last two games.  Overall, Virginia Tech is averaging 33.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play, but they’ve played a group of opposing defenses that are giving up 28.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Hokies will now play a Notre Dame defense that is only allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  That’s 3.0 points per game and 0.5 yards per play less than the defenses Virginia Tech has faced this season.

Notre Dame has had a disappointing season to say the least.  The Irish come into this game with a poor 4-6 SU record, but they’ve been a competitive bunch.  All six of Notre Dame’s losses have come by 8 points or less with their defeats coming by a total of 29 points.  The Irish are off their best game of the season; they blew out Army 44-6.  Off that dominating win and back at home, we expect the Irish will carry over momentum into this game.  Notre Dame is averaging 31.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that only gave up 26 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Those numbers show Notre Dame is a much better team than their record indicates.  We’ll back Notre Dame in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NOTRE DAME.

Oklahoma State is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game at TCU on Saturday afternoon.  The Cowboys come into this game with an 8-2 record, and they could very well be 9-1 on the season.  Oklahoma State lost on a controversial last play to Central Michigan back in Week 2; the play never should have counted.  The Cowboys won 43-37 at Kansas State two weeks ago after scoring the winning touchdown with less than 2 minutes to play.  Last week, the Cowboys beat Texas Tech 45-44 in a back and forth game that had over 1,100 yards of total offense.  That’s back-to-back emotionally draining games for Oklahoma State, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll have much in reserve for this game.  Oklahoma State was in a similar spot for their game at Baylor earlier this season, and it resulted in a 35-24 loss.  The Cowboys will also be playing their second road game in three weeks, and their third road game over the last five weeks.

TCU has had a disappointing season with just a 5-4 record.  However, the Horned Frogs have lost three of those games by 6 points or less, so they are a much better team than their record indicates.  TCU comes into this game off a bye, so that’s a major scheduling advantage for them, especially since Oklahoma State is off back-to-back draining games.  TCU is also playing with legitimate revenge after losing 49-29 as 6.5-point road favorites at Oklahoma State last season.  TCU actually out-yarded Oklahoma State 663-456 in that game, so the final was certainly misleading.  TCU is averaging 41.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play at home this season.  Oklahoma State’s defense is giving up 30.7 points per game on 6.6 yards per play on the road this season.  The Cowboys’ defense is giving up 228.3 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per rush while TCU’s offense is running for 196 yards per game on 5.4 yards per rush.  This is simply a terrible spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma State, so we’ll lay the points with TCU on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play TCU (-).

LSU was on a tear since firing head coach Les Miles.  Interim head coach Ed Orgeron led the Tigers to three straight wins by a combined score of 125-38.  However, LSU ran into the best team in the country last week and they lost 10-0 to Alabama.  There’s no shame in that loss, and off their disappointing performance, we expect LSU to come with a focused effort.  LSU is averaging 26.1 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that give up 24.7 points per game on just 5.5 yards per play.  The Tigers’ offense is going from facing the best defense in the country to facing one of the worst defenses in the SEC.  Arkansas is giving up 29.0 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  The Razorbacks have been horrendous against the run, allowing 6.1 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 4.9 ypr).  LSU has a potent ground game that is averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season (versus opponents that allow just 4.5 ypr), so the Tigers should dominate the line of scrimmage tonight.

Arkansas comes into this game off an upset home win as 3-point underdogs against Florida.  The Razorbacks went into that game off their bye week, and off a 31-10 victory, we expect a letdown, especially since they are now taking a major step-up in class.  The Arkansas offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 27.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play as a group this season.  Arkansas is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against LSU in this game.  In fact, the Razorbacks will face a Tigers’ defense that is only allowing 14.4 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  That’s -13.1 points per game and -1.1 yards per play less than the opponents Arkansas has faced this season.  We’ll lay the points with LSU on Saturday night.  

9* Play LSU (-).

Stanford and Oregon match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday afternoon.  The Cardinal offense has struggled so far this season, but we expect their best offensive performance in this game.  Stanford has faced an extremely tough slate of opposing defenses that have held their opponents to just 25.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Stanford will now face a woeful Oregon defense that is giving up 42.6 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 34.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Stanford’s offense is taking a major step-down in defensive class based on the above numbers.

Oregon has a potent offense.  The Ducks are averaging 38.2 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 29.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Oregon will face a Stanford defense that has good seasonal number this season.  However, the Cardinal defense was extremely fortunate in facing a collection of offenses that have been at less than full strength recently.  Oregon has scored 83 total points on Stanford in their last two meetings.  We expect a high-scoring game between Stanford and Oregon on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Miami, FL comes into this game with a 5-4 SU record, but they’ve actually lost four of their last five games.  The Hurricanes snapped their 4-game losing streak with a 51-28 win over Pittsburgh last week as 4.5-point home favorites.  Miami will now hit the road for the third time in four weeks, and they are simply laying way too many points in a poor scheduling spot.  Miami’s offense is averaging 34.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

Virginia comes into this game with a poor 2-7 record, but the team has been competitive under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  Three of the Cavaliers’ seven losses have come by 7 points or less, including two of their last three home games.  Virginia is averaging 27.8 points per game at home this season, and since Miami’s defense is giving up 24.5 points per game on the road, we expect the Cavaliers to score enough points to keep this game close throughout.  We’ll take Virginia plus the generous points in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VIRGINIA (+).

North Carolina is 7-2 SU on the season with their two losses coming versus Georgia in the season opener and at home versus Virginia Tech.  The Tar Heels played a tough stretch of games in which they were on the road in three of four weeks right before their bye.  They won all three of those games, and went into their off week full of momentum.  After a week of rest, North Carolina came out and waxed Georgia Tech by 28 points (48-20) at home last week.  But now they must hit the road again, and this is simply a natural letdown spot for the Tar Heels on a short week.  North Carolina’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a terrible group of defenses that give up 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

Duke comes into this game with a poor 3-6 SU record, and they are on a 3-game losing streak.  However, two of those three games were on the road, and the Blue Devils lost all three games by 10 points or less with two of the losses coming by just 3 points apiece.  Only one of Duke’s six losses this season has come by more than tonight’s posted pointspread and the Blue Devils are a profitable 6-3 ATS in all games.  Duke has played solid defense this season.  The Blue Devils are giving up just 23.9 points per game versus opponents that average 28.3 points per game.  Duke’s defense is only giving up 18.8 points per game on 4.7 yards per play at home this season.  We’ll take Duke plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play DUKE (+).

Alabama is the best team in the country as the Crimson Tide come into this game with a perfect 8-0 SU record on the season.  Alabama also comes into this game off a bye, but not sure that’s a good thing after winning their last two games by a combined score of 82-24.  The Crimson Tide offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 27.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play as a group this season.  Alabama is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against LSU in this game.  In fact, the Crimson Tide will face a Tigers’ defense that is only allowing 14.2 points per game on 4.4 yards per play at home.  That’s -13.3 points per game and -1.2 yards per play less than the opponents Alabama has faced this season.

LSU has been on a tear since firing head coach Les Miles.  Interim head coach Ed Orgeron is 3-0 SU/ATS with those three wins coming by a combined score of 125-38.  Like Alabama, LSU will come into this game off a bye.  But it’s a much stronger angle for LSU since they are home underdogs while playing with legitimate revenge.  LSU is averaging 36.4 points per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per play at home this season.  Alabama does have a stout defense, but they have been much weaker on the road, giving up 14.6 points per game and 1.0 yards per play more away than at home this season.  When the season began two months ago, LSU was a 1-point favorite in this game.  Now they are getting more than a full touchdown which provides solid line value.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with LSU on Saturday night.  

10* Play LSU (+).

Iowa comes into this game with a 5-3 SU record with their last game being a 17-9 home loss to Wisconsin.  All three of the Hawkeyes’ losses this season have come by 8 points or less with their average loss coming by just 5.7 points per game.  Iowa comes into this game off a bye week, so they’ve had extra time to prepare.  And since they are also off a home loss, we expect a peak performance in this game.  The Hawkeyes are averaging 28.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 26.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Iowa’s running game averages 246 yards per game on 5.6 yards per rush on the road.  They will face a Penn State defense that allows 183 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  Iowa’s ability to run the ball will have a major impact on the outcome of this game.

Penn State is 6-2 SU on the season, and they come off their two best games of the year.  The Nittany Lions beat Ohio State 24-21 as a 19-point home underdog two weeks ago, and last week they beat Purdue 62-24 on the road.  Off those back-to-back big performances, we expect Penn State to regress sharply in this game.  The Nittany Lions’ offense is averaging 31.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play at home this season, but they’ve put those numbers up against a poor slate of opposing defenses.  Penn State will now face an Iowa defense that only gives up 16.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play on the road this season.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Iowa on Saturday night.

9* Play IOWA (+).