Missouri is just 2-6 SU on the season, but the Tigers are better than their record indicates.  Missouri is averaging 33.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 30.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Tigers will face a South Carolina defense that has good seasonal numbers, but the Gamecocks have played a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 27.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Missouri’s offense will be a step-up in class for South Carolina, and that’s not a good thing since the Gamecocks have given up 21 points or more in four consecutive games.

South Carolina is 4-4 SU on the season after winning their last two games.  The Gamecocks barely survived a terrible UMass team 34-28 two weeks ago as a 20-point favorite before beating Tennessee 24-21 as 14.5-point home underdogs last week.  Off those back-to-back close games, South Carolina is in a major flat spot, especially since they are laying points in this game.  South Carolina’s offense has played below average football this season.  The Gamecocks are only averaging 17.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 27.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  South Carolina shouldn’t be laying this many points, so we’ll take Missouri in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

Clemson is a perfect 7-0 SU on the season, but they’ve only played two ‘real’ opponents so far.  The Tigers struggled mightily at Auburn in their season opener; they won that game 19-13.  Their other tough game ended in a 42-36 come from behind home win over Louisville.  The Tigers’ offense is averaging 36.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play, but they’ve put those numbers up against a poor slate of opposing defenses.  Clemson will now face a Florida State defense that only gives up 17.0 points per game on 5.6 yards per play at home.  That’s 19.6 points and 0.6 yards per play of production that Clemson has too make up in order to reach their seasonal averages.

Florida State comes into this game with a 5-2 SU record, including a 2-1 home record where they’ve won by a combined score of 69-14.  The Seminoles are averaging 34.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that give up 28.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Clemson has good defensive numbers, but they’ve faced offenses that average 30 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Florida State’s running game averages 213 yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush.  Clemson allowed Louisville to run for 273 yards, and the Tigers trailed in that game 36-28 on their home field late in the fourth quarter.  The look-ahead line was Florida State -3 when this season began, so recent results have now created solid value with the Seminoles.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Florida State as a home underdog on Saturday night.

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (+).

Arizona State and Oregon match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday.  The Sun Devils have a potent offense that is averaging 35.7 points per game versus defenses that give up 31.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Sun Devils will now face a woeful Oregon defense that is giving up 43.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 35.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Arizona State scored 55 points on 742 yards of offense against the Ducks last season.  QB Manny Wilkins is doubtful with an arm injury today, but he has mediocre numbers this season and the backup quarterback is more than capable of still moving the ball against this terrible Oregon defense.  This total is also several points lower now because of the injury which has created line value.

Oregon also has a potent offense.  The Ducks are averaging 38.6 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 28.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Oregon will now face an Arizona State defense that has been atrocious this season.  The Sun Devils are giving up 34.4 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 33.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  Oregon scored 61 points on ‘just’ 499 yards of offense against the Sun Devils last year.  Look for a high-scoring game between Arizona State an Oregon on Saturday.

9* Play OVER the total.

Miami, FL comes into this game with a 4-3 SU record, but they are on a 3-game SU and ATS losing streak.  The Hurricanes will play back-to-back road games, and they will also be on the road for the fourth time in their last six games.  Miami’s offense is in terrible current form as they’ve scored 19 points or less in each of their last three games while scoring a total of just 48 points in those games.  Overall, Miami is averaging 33.7 points per game on 6.8 yards per play, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Hurricanes will now play a Notre Dame defense that is only allowing 27.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  That’s 3.9 points per game and 0.4 yards per play less than the defenses Miami has faced this season.

Notre Dame has had a disappointing season to say the least.  The Irish come into this game with a poor 2-5 SU record, but they’ve been a competitive bunch.  All five of Notre Dame’s losses have come by 8 points or less with their defeats coming by a total of 28 points.  The Irish are off back-to-back losses, but they are also off a week of rest, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  Notre Dame is averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only gave up 26.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Those numbers show Notre Dame is a much better team than their record indicates.  We’ll back Notre Dame in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NOTRE DAME.

California is 4-3 SU on the season, but the Golden Bears are 0-3 SU in true road games.  They lost at San Diego State, Arizona State, and Oregon State.  USC is a much better team than those three opponents, so California is up against it tonight.  California’s defense gave up 45 points or more in all three of those road losses, and that is not a surprise as their stop unit has been absolutely atrocious this season.  The Golden Bears are allowing 41.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  On the road, California has given up 43.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.

USC also comes into this game with a 4-3 SU record, but their losses have come against teams like Alabama, Stanford and Utah.  The Trojans have now won three straight games with their last being a confidence-building 48-14 blowout at Arizona, so they come into this game with good momentum.  USC’s offense is averaging 35.7 points per game on 6.5 yards per play at home this season, so they will score at will on California’s terrible defense.  USC’s defense has been tremendous at home where they are only giving up 14.7 points per game on 4.5 yards per play this season.  USC has 11 days of rest for this game, while California must travel and play on a short week (only 5 days of rest) after a draining national TV overtime game versus Oregon last week.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the USC on Thursday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Texas A&M is a perfect 6-0 SU on the season, but the Aggies have been an extremely fortunate team.  They won a pair of overtime games versus Tennessee and UCLA, and another win came against an inferior FCS Prairie View A&M.  They also beat a terrible South Carolina team.  The Aggies are taking a monumental step-up in class against Alabama in this game.  Texas A&M’s offense is averaging 40.2 points per game on 6.8 yards per play, but they’ve put those numbers up against a group of defenses that give up 30.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide defense is only giving up 15 points per game on 4.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 31.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  At home, Alabama is only allowing 5.3 points per game on 3.5 yards per play this year.

Alabama is the best team in the country.  The Crimson Tide are a perfect 7-0 SU while winning by an average of +30.4 points per game.  Alabama is averaging 45.4 points per game on 7.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 28.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Texas A&M’s defense is only giving up 19.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  However, they played a group of terrible offenses that only average 22.9 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  The Aggies’ defense is taking a monumental step-up in offensive class against Alabama, so expect them to struggle mightily in this game.  Texas A&M is giving up 172 rushing yards per game on the road while Alabama’s offense is averaging 266 rushing yards per game on 6.2 yards per rush this season.  This is a terrible matchup for Texas A&M, so we’ll lay the points with Alabama on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

Purdue is 3-3 SU on the season, but they’ve fired head coach Darrell Hazell, and they’ll be led by an interim coach going forward.  The program is in disarray, so it’s hard to imagine they’ll be competitive in this game versus Nebraska.  Purdue’s offense is only averaging 20.5 points per game on 4.2 yards per play on the road this season.  The Boilermakers will now face a Nebraska defense that only gives up 18.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Purdue lost 50-7 at Maryland three weeks ago, and Nebraska is a significantly better team, so the Boilermakers will be in for a long afternoon.

Nebraska comes into this game with a perfect 6-0 SU and a 4-1-1 ATS record on the season.  The Cornhuskers have won their six games by a combined score of 212-110.  Nebraska is averaging 35.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 30.0 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Purdue’s defense has given up 40.5 points per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per play on the road this season.  Nebraska’s running game averages 221 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush; the Boilermakers give up 357 yards per game on 7.8 yards per rush on the road.  Purdue is just 5-33 SU versus FBS teams the past four seasons.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Cornhuskers on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

North Carolina is 5-2 SU on the season with their two losses coming to Georgia in the season opener and at home versus Virginia Tech.  The Tar Heels last three wins have all come by 7 points or less.  North Carolina won 20-13 as 6-point road underdogs at Miami last week, but now they are laying double digits while playing their second consecutive road game.  In fact, North Carolina will be playing their third road game in the last four weeks, so this is not a good scheduling spot for the Tar Heels.  North Carolina’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a terrible group of defenses that give up 29.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.

Virginia comes into this game with a 2-4 record SU, but a solid 4-2 ATS and they are improving.  The Cavaliers opened the season with three consecutive losses, but have gone 2-1 SU since.  Head coach Bronco Mendenhall is in his first season, and after a rough start, his team is finally comfortable in his system.  Virginia is averaging 33.3 points per game on 6.3 yards per play at home this season.  North Carolina’s defense is giving up 6.1 yards per play on the road this season, so look for a strong offensive performance by the Cavaliers in this game.  Virginia is a competitive team that is on a current 16-0 ATS run when getting +5 points or more.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll back Virginia as a big home underdog on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VIRGINIA (+).

Oregon and California match-up well for a high-scoring game on Friday night.  The Ducks are averaging 36.8 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 26.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Oregon will now face a California defense that has been absolutely atrocious this season.  The Golden Bears are allowing 40.0 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that average just 31.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  California will now face an Oregon offense that is averaging +5.5 points and +1.2 yards per play more than the offenses Cal has faced this season.

California also has a potent offense that is averaging 42.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play despite playing defenses that only give up 29.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  California will now face a woeful Oregon defense that is giving up 41.8 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 36.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  This is the highest posted total this season and for good reason.  In fact, the line is not high enough as my power ratings predict 96 total points.  Look for a high-scoring game between Oregon and California on Friday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Southern Mississippi is 4-2 SU on the season, but they’ve played six terrible teams.  The Golden Eagles own wins against Kentucky, FCS Savannah State, UTEP, and Rice; two of those games came on their home field.  Last week, Southern Mississippi lost 55-32 at a poor Texas-San Antonio team despite out-gaining them by 557-532 in yardage.  Southern Mississippi’s offense is averaging 40.2 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that allow 35 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Golden Eagles will now face a LSU defense that only gives up 14.8 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  That’s -20.2 points per game less, and -1.5 yards per play less than the defenses that Southern Mississippi has faced this season.

LSU comes into this game with a 3-2 SU record, but their two losses came against good teams in Wisconsin and Auburn.  The Tigers won their last home game 42-7 over Missouri, so they come into this game with good momentum.  LSU is averaging 33 points per game on 6.7 yards per play at home this season.  Southern Mississippi’s defense is giving up 27 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  On the road, Southern Mississippi is allowing 32.3 points per game on a whopping 7.9 yards per play.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the LSU on Saturday night.

10* Play LSU (-).

Mississippi is 3-2 SU on the season, and they’ll be playing their first true road game of the year.  The Rebels’ two losses have come against Florida State and Alabama, so there’s no shame in losing to those two teams.  Mississippi also comes into this game off a bye, but considering they won their last two games by a combined score of 93-42, a week off did not necessarily come at a good time.  Mississippi was a 7.5-point home favorite against Arkansas last season, and the Razorbacks won that game after they put-up 605 yards of total offense.  Mississippi is now playing at Arkansas, and they are laying 7.5 points once again, but this time it’s on the road.  This line doesn’t make much sense, and my power ratings say the Rebels should only be a 6-point favorite in this game.  In their lone game away from home on a neutral field against Florida State, the Rebels gave up 45 points on 6.2 yards per play.

Arkansas comes into this game off a 49-30 home loss to Alabama.  The Razorbacks deserved better in that game as they put-up 473 yards of total offense on the Crimson Tide while winning the first down battle 25-16.  Arkansas also converted 50% (8-for-16) on third downs, but five costly turnovers did them in.  Arkansas’ offense has been excellent at home this season where they are averaging 36.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  They will face a Mississippi rush defense that is allowing 215 yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush.  The Razorbacks’ ability to run the ball at home (189 yards on 4.8 yards per rush per game) gives them a nice matchup edge in this game.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Arkansas on Saturday night.

9* Play ARKANSAS (+).

Central Michigan is 4-2 SU on the season, but they could very well be 2-4 instead.  The Chippewas won at Oklahoma State on a fluke play which shouldn’t have counted, and they only beat Ball State by 3 points at home last week.  Central Michigan has also played four of their six games at home, and their two road games resulted in a loss at Virginia and the aforementioned game at Oklahoma State.  The Chippewas’ offense has faced a group of terrible defenses that give up 30.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  While it’s true Northern Illinois’ defense has poor seasonal numbers, do note that they’ve played a collection of offenses that average 35.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Central Michigan’s offense actually has a difficult matchup against the Huskies’ defense in this game.

Northern Illinois comes into this game with a poor 1-5 SU record.  However, the Huskies are a much better team than that record suggests.  Northern Illinois has played four of their six games on the road, and their two home games were against better teams (San Diego State and Western Michigan).  The Huskies also lost two games by 6 points or less.  Northern Illinois’ offense has played a group of defenses that only allow 24.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Huskies will now face a Central Michigan defense that is giving up 38 points per game on 6.6 yards per play on the road this season.  The Huskies’ offense is taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game.  The wrong team is favored, so we’ll back Northern Illinois on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+).

Mississippi State is 2-3 on the season, but this team is much worse than that record indicates.  The Bulldogs’ two wins have come against a terrible South Carolina team, and an inferior Massachusetts team that is relatively new to FBS football.  Mississippi State was unimpressive in those wins; they beat South Carolina 27-14 and only beat Massachusetts 47-35.  The Bulldogs lost at home to South Alabama and Auburn, and they were dominated at LSU where they trailed 23-6 with less than five minutes to play before scoring two backdoor touchdowns to make the final score look respectable at 23-20.  Mississippi State’s offense is only averaging 25.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  They will now face a BYU defense that has given up 25.8 points per game versus offenses that have averaged 29.4 points per game this season. 

BYU comes into this game with just a 3-3 record on the season, but their three losses have come by a combined 7 points.  The Cougars have played a difficult schedule with games against Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, Toledo, and Michigan State.  All six of those teams are better than Mississippi State, so BYU is taking a step-down in class tonight.  BYU has a well-balanced offense that averages over 200 yards per game on the ground and thru the air.  Overall, BYU is averaging 28.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 23 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Mississippi State’s defense is giving up 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  We’ll lay the points with BYU in this game on Friday night.

10* Play BYU (-).

Appalachian State comes into this game with a 3-2 SU record with their two losses coming against Tennessee and Miami Florida.  If we eliminate those two games, the Mountaineers’ offense has scored an average of 31 points in their other three games versus weaker opponents.  Overall, Appalachian State is only averaging 23.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play, but those numbers are skewed after they only scored a total of 23 points against the Vols and Hurricanes.  Appalachian State will now face a weaker UL Lafayette defense that is giving up 33.6 points per game, so expect a strong performance by the Mountaineers’ offense in this game tonight.

UL Lafayette comes into this game off back-to-back overtime losses at Tulane and at New Mexico State.  But ULL has had extra time to recover from those defeats and prepare for this game, so they’ll be ready for a big effort tonight at home on national TV.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have a capable offense that has scored 28 points or more in each of their past four games (32.0 ppg on average) after only scoring 10 points in their season opener against Boise State.  UL Lafayette will now face an Appalachian State defense that is allowing 29.0 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Look for a high-scoring game between Appalachian State and UL Lafayette on Wednesday night.      

10* Play OVER the total.

Syracuse is 2-3 SU on the season, but in their defense, they have played a tough schedule.  The Orange faced three strong teams in Louisville, South Florida, and Notre Dame.  Syracuse lost all three of those games by 17 points; they were non-competitive in those defeats.  So even though it’s true they’ve played a brutal schedule, the blowout results show that Syracuse just isn’t a good team.  The Orange offense is averaging 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play, but they’ve played defenses that allow an average of 29.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Syracuse will now face a Wake Forest defense that allows just 19.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  That’s -9.3 points per game and -0.3 yards per play less than the defenses Syracuse has faced.

Wake Forest comes into this game with a 4-1 SU record on the season despite playing three of their five games on the road.  The Demon Deacons returned 16 players from last year’s team, and in their third year under head coach Dave Clawson, the hot start is not a surprise.  Wake Forest plays ball control offense; they average 42.6 rushes per game while running for 173.8 yards per game.  The Demon Deacons’ ability to run the ball gives them a nice matchup edge in this game, especially since the Orange defense gives up 205 yards per game on 5.4 yards per rush, and weather conditions might be wet.  Overall, the Syracuse defense allows 37.6 points per game on a whopping 6.9 yards per play.  We’ll lay the points with Wake Forest in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play WAKE FOREST (-).

Virginia Tech comes into this game with a 3-1 SU record, but their only loss was to a very good Tennessee team.  The Hokies also own a huge scheduling edge over North Carolina.  Virginia Tech comes in off a bye while the Tar Heels are off two consecutive emotional games.  The Hokies have won their three games by a combined score of 139-75.  Virginia Tech is averaging 40.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 26.1 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  North Carolina’s defense is giving up 31 points per game while allowing their opponents to gain 6.1 yards per play.  Virginia Tech’s running game averages 195.5 yards per game; the Tar Heels are giving up 236.8 yards per game on 5.0 yards per game.  The Hokies will have a lot of success running the ball on North Carolina in this game, especially in rainy conditions.

North Carolina is 4-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming to Georgia in the season opener.  However, the Tar Heels are off back-to-back come from behind wins over Pittsburgh and Florida State, and those wins actually put them in a terrible situational spot for this game.  North Carolina’s last two wins were also high-scoring shootouts which is also a negative factor; the Tar Heels beat Pittsburgh 37-36 and Florida State 37-35.  North Carolina’s offense has faced a group of defenses that give up 36.4 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  The Tar Heels will now face a Virginia Tech defense that only gives up 18.7 points per game on 4.2 yards per play.  That’s -17.7 points per game less, and a whopping -2.7 yards per play less than the defenses that North Carolina has faced this season.  We’ll back Virginia Tech on Saturday afternoon, and adverse weather conditions will further help the Hokies who have the better defense and running game.

10* Play VIRGINIA TECH.

Indiana is 3-1, and the Hoosiers come off their best game of the season.  Indiana beat Michigan State 24-21 at home in overtime last week, but that win isn’t as good as it looks.  The Spartans are clearly down a few notches this season, and Indiana was a 5-point home underdog in that game.  Indiana is also on the road for the first time in five weeks, and the matchup against Ohio State is just bad.  Indiana’s offense is only averaging 29 points per game versus defenses that allow 26 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Aside from Michigan State last week, Indiana’s opponents were Florida International, Ball State, and Wake Forest.  The Hoosiers will now face an Ohio State defense that only gives up 9.2 points per game on 3.6 yards per play.  That’s 16.8 points per game less, and 2.1 yards per play less than the defenses that Indiana has faced this season.

Ohio State comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS record on the season.  The Buckeyes have won their four games by a combined score of 228-37.  Ohio State is averaging 57 points per game on 7.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 36.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Indiana’s defense has given up 21.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  However, they’ve played a horrendous group of offenses that only average 23.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Ohio State’s running game averages 332 yards per game on 6.5 yards per rush; Indiana has no chance at stopping the run.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Buckeyes on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Western Kentucky’s offense has picked-up right where they left off from last season.  The Hilltoppers have scored 30 points or more in four of their five games this season; they only scored 10 points against Alabama.  Overall, Western Kentucky is averaging 33.4 points per game on a whopping 7.3 yards per play.  The Hilltoppers have put those numbers up against a collection of defenses that allow 31 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  Western Kentucky’s defense has decent seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 21 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  The Hilltoppers are taking a major step-up in offensive class against Louisiana Tech’s offense in this game.         

Louisiana Tech has scored 28 points or more in four of their five games.  The Bulldogs are averaging 36 points per game on 7.3 yards per play.  Louisiana Tech put those numbers up against a group of defenses that allow 34.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Louisiana Tech’s offense averages 15 points per game and 2.6 yards per play more than the offenses Western Kentucky has faced this season.  The Bulldogs’ defense is allowing 29.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play, so Western Kentucky will score their share of points as well.  We expect a high-scoring game between Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech on Thursday night.      

10* Play OVER the total.

Kentucky has been a disappointing team under head coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats are just 14-27 SU in his three years, including 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) so far this season.  Their lone wins have come against an inferior New Mexico State team, and a terrible South Carolina team.  Kentucky was dominated by Southern Mississippi and Florida with the latter being a 45-7 blowout loss on the road.  The Wildcats will now play just their second road game of the season, and this time it will come against the best team in the nation.  Kentucky’s offense has averaged only 12 points in their two SEC games, so it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats scoring many points on Alabama’s strong defense.  The Crimson Tide is only allowing 14.7 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.  At home, Alabama is only permitting 5 points per game on 3.8 yards per play.

Alabama is the best team in the country.  The Crimson Tide are a perfect 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) while winning by an average of +31.8 points per game.  Alabama is averaging 46.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 29.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Kentucky’s defense is allowing 35.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play despite playing offenses that only average 28.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Wildcats’ defense is taking a monumental step-up in offensive class against Alabama, so expect them to struggle mightily in this game.  Kentucky is giving up 205 rushing yards per game while Alabama’s offense is averaging 246 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush.  Alabama has scored at least 48 points or more in three of their four games this season, including an easy 48-0 home win last week.  This game is a complete mismatch and a terrible matchup for Kentucky, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide on Saturday night. 

9* Play ALABAMA (-).

Oklahoma has once again failed to live up to their preseason hype.  The Sooners are just 1-2 SU (0-3 ATS) on the season with losses to Houston and Ohio State.  There is no shame in losing to those two teams, but Oklahoma was actually dominated by both of those opponents.  The Sooners do come into this game off a bye, but even so, they are laying over a field goal which means there’s some good value on TCU as a home underdog.  The Sooners only won 30-29 at home versus TCU last season despite putting-up 536 yards of total offense.  TCU’s defense is significantly better this year as they are only giving up 26.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average of 28.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

TCU should be 4-0 SU on the season, but they gifted Arkansas a win in overtime back in Week 2.  The Horned Frogs come off their best game of the season, a 33-3 blowout win at SMU last Friday night.  TCU has a lot of momentum coming into this game while Oklahoma has to find their rhythm off a week of rest.  TCU’s offense has been excellent this season as they are averaging 42.7 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  They will face an Oklahoma defense that is allowing 31.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Horned Frogs’ ability to run the ball (196 yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush) gives them a nice matchup edge in this game.  TCU won straight-up as a 3-point home underdog two years ago versus the Sooners, and we expect another close game throughout today, so we’ll take the points with the Horned Frogs on Saturday.

9* Play TCU (+).

Illinois is 1-2 SU/ATS on the season with their lone win coming over FCS Murray State.  The Illini’s two losses have come by 25 points (48-23) to North Carolina, and by 24 points (34-10) to Western Michigan.  All of their games have come at home, so they will be playing their first road game of the season.  While it’s true they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game, the matchup against Nebraska is just bad.  Illinois’ offense is only averaging 28.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 34.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  The Illini will now face a Nebraska defense that only gives up 18 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  That’s -16.3 points per game less, and -1.0 yards per play less than the defenses that Illinois has faced so far this year.

Nebraska comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS record on the season.  The Cornhuskers have won their four games by a combined score of 154-72.  Nebraska is averaging 38.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 29.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Illinois defense has given up 28.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus a mediocre group of offenses that only average 29.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Nebraska’s running game averages 242.5 yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush; the Illini give up 158 yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush.  Nebraska is 2-0 SU/ATS as a double-digit favorite this year, winning those two games by 33 and 35 point margins.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Cornhuskers on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play NEBRASKA (-).

Stanford comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record, and all three victories can be considered quality wins.  The Cardinal beat Kansas State, USC, and UCLA.  And as you will see below, their opponent tonight has played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  Stanford’s defense is playing excellent football this year.  The Cardinal only give up 12.0 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Stanford plays ball control offense; they average 38 rushes per game while running for 202.3 yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush.  Washington’s defense has given up 145.5 rushing yards per game to inferior opponents, including 308 rushing yards (7.2 ypr) at Arizona last week, so Stanford’s ability to run the ball will be the deciding factor in this game.

Washington is 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) on the season with their last win being a 45-38 overtime win at Arizona as a 16-point road favorite.  The Huskies are certainly a talented team, but they’ve played nothing in terms of competition as their other wins have come against Rutgers, Idaho, and FCS Portland State.  Washington’s offense is averaging 45.7 points per game on 7.1 yards per play, but they’ve faced a group of terrible defenses that allow an average of 36.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Huskies will now face a Stanford defense that allows -24.4 points and -1.1 yards per rush less per game than the defenses Washington has faced so far this year.  Stanford is 2-0 SU versus the Washington the past two years as an 8-point road favorite and 14.5-point home favorite.  This line has now be adjusted 11.5 net points in the opposite direction.  The better team is the underdog and this should be a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Stanford on Friday night. 

10* Play STANFORD (+).

Oklahoma State is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game at Baylor on Saturday night.  The Cowboys come into this game with a 2-1 SU record, but they could very well be 3-0 on the season.  Oklahoma State opened with an easy 61-7 romp over FCS Southeastern Louisiana, and then they lost on a controversial last play to Central Michigan; the play never should have counted.  Oklahoma State was supposed to be flat last week off that disappointing loss, but the Cowboys out-lasted Pittsburgh in a 45-38 shootout.  The Cowboys led by 14 points twice in that game, but it was tied when Oklahoma State scored the game-winning touchdown with just 1:35 left to play in the game.  That’s back-to-back emotionally draining games for Oklahoma State, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll have much in reserve for this game.  The Cowboys will also be making their first road trip of the season, so that is another negative factor working against them.

Baylor’s summer distraction of losing head coach Art Briles due to sanctions from inappropriate actions have yet to be an issue.  The Bears are 3-0 SU on the season while out-scoring their inferior opposition by a combined score of 133-20.  Baylor is averaging 44.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Oklahoma State’s defense is giving up 25 points per game on 5.4 yards per play, but their opponents have only averaged 28 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Cowboys’ defense is taking a monumental step-up in offensive class against Baylor, so expect them to struggle mightily in this game.  Oklahoma State gave up 290 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per rush last week.  Baylor’s offense is running for 282 yards per game on 5.6 yards per rush, so expect them to control this game on the ground.  The Bears have out-rushed the Cowboys 304-8 and 317-116 the past two years, winning by +31 points combined. This is simply a terrible spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma State, so we’ll lay the points with the Bears on Saturday night. 

10* Play BAYLOR (-).

Wake Forest comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 SU record, including a solid 24-14 win at Duke two weeks ago.  The Demon Deacons have a pretty good defensive team that returned seven starters from last year when they held opponents to just 24.6 points on 364 yards per game.  In three games so far this season, Wake Forest is only giving up 12.7 points per game on 3.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.7 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.  Overall, Wake Forest returned 16 players from last year’s team, and they are in the third year under head coach Dave Clawson.  Wake Forest plays ball control offense; they average 47.3 rushes per game while running for 206.7 yards per game.  Quarterback Kendall Hinton will not play after getting hurt last week, but John Wolford has started 22 games for Wake Forest over the last two seasons, so he has plenty of experience.  The Demon Deacons’ ability to run the ball gives them a nice matchup edge in this game.

Indiana is 2-0 SU on the season, and they come into this game off a bye.  But getting a week of rest this early in the season for a timing offense is not a good thing, especially since they are playing a good defensive team.  The Hoosiers won 31-24 at Wake Forest last season as a +3.5 point underdog, but now they are laying -7.5 points into a team that is significantly better this season.  Indiana’s offense is averaging 32 points per game on 6.2 yards per play, but they faced a pair of defenses that allow an average of 26.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Hoosiers will now face a Wake Forest defense that allows -14.1 points and -1.7 yards per rush less per game than the defenses Indiana has faced.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Wake Forest on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play WAKE FOREST (+).

East Carolina is 2-1 SU on the season, but they’ve played three mediocre teams.  The Pirates own wins against FCS Western Carolina and North Carolina State; both of those games came on their home field.  Last week, East Carolina lost 20-15 at a terrible South Carolina team despite out-gaining them by 207 yards (519-312).  East Carolina’s offense is averaging 33.3 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 30.8 points per game on 6.8 yards per play.  The Pirates will now face a Virginia Tech defense that only gives up 19.3 points per game on 3.3 yards per play.  That’s -14 points per game less, and a whopping -3.5 yards per play less than the defenses that East Carolina has faced so far this season.

Virginia Tech also comes into this game with a 2-1 SU record, but their loss was against a good Tennessee team.  The Hokies have won their two home games by a combined score of 85-13.  Virginia Tech is averaging 36.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 25.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  East Carolina’s defense has only given up 19 points per game, but they have allowed their opponents to gain 6.2 yards per play.  Those numbers do not line up, and that means the Pirates have been extremely lucky in the points against department.  Virginia Tech’s running game averages 205 yards per game; the Pirates give up 160 yards per game on 5.1 yards per game.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Hokies at home on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (-).

This is a tough scheduling spot for Clemson as they must travel and prepare for Georgia Tech's option attack on a short week (4 days).  The Tigers also have a huge look-ahead game on deck next week versus Louisville.  Clemson is 3-0 SU on the season, but only 1-2 ATS and they’ve only played one ‘real’ opponent so far.  The Tigers struggled mightily at Auburn in their season opener; they won that game 19-13.  Their last two games were against inferior opponents (Troy and FCS South Carolina State); they won those games by a combined score of 89-24.  However, they only beat Troy 30-24 at home, so that indicates that this Clemson team is down a few notches from last year’s squad.  Clemson’s offense is averaging 36 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that allow 32.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Tigers will face a Georgia Tech defense that only gives up 10.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  That’s -25.7 points per game less, and -0.5 yards per play less than the defenses Clemson has faced so far this season.  If we only use Georgia Tech’s home numbers, the outcome is even more bleak for Clemson.  The Yellow Jackets have allowed just 8.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play at home.

Georgia Tech also comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 SU record.  The Yellow Jackets have won their two home games by a combined score of 73-17, including an impressive 38-7 win versus Vanderbilt last week.  Georgia Tech is averaging 30 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that give up only 28.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Clemson has good defensive numbers, but they faced a trio of offenses that only average 24.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Georgia Tech’s running game averages 258 yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush, and double digit underdogs that can run the ball well have been long-term spread winners in college football.  The Yellow Jackets won outright 28-6 as a home underdog versus Clemson two years ago with a 251-125 rushing edge.  This game should be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Georgia Tech on Thursday night.

10* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

UCLA had a lot of hype heading into last season.  The Bruins had 16 returning starters from a team that won 20 games over the previous two years.  Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen was said to be a can’t miss NFL prospect as well.  UCLA failed to live up to their lofty expectations after going just 8-5, including a physical beat down by Nebraska in their bowl game.  Things were quieter heading into 2016, but UCLA was still the preseason favorites to win the Pac 12 South.  The Bruins lost their season opener in overtime at Texas A&M before beating UNLV at home last week.  UCLA failed to cover the pointspread in both of those games, and in fact, UCLA is on a 1-5 ATS slide dating back to last season.  UCLA’s run defense has been poor so far; they’ve allowed 189 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.  That’s a major issue coming into this game against a BYU team that possesses a terrific running game behind a solid offensive line that also features a dual threat quarterback.

BYU comes into this game with a 1-1 record after playing a pair of close, defensive scrums.  The Cougars beat Arizona 18-16 on a neutral field, and they lost 20-19 on the road to their in-state rival Utah last week.  Off that loss, BYU will be primed for a big effort in their home opener, especially after their close loss at UCLA last season.  The Cougars lost 24-23 after putting up 405 yards of total offense on the Bruins.  BYU’s rushing offense has been impressive against two pretty good defensive fronts so far this season.  The Cougars have averaged 178 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush versus opponents that only give up 133 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush.  BYU will have success moving the ball on the ground against UCLA’s defense.  My power ratings make BYU a 2-point favorite, so there’s excellent value in taking the Cougars as a home underdog in this game.

9* Play BYU (+).

Mississippi State figured to regress sharply this season after losing eleven starters, including quarterback Dak Prescott to the NFL.  The Bulldogs lost their season opener at home versus South Alabama as a 28-point favorite before bouncing back with a ho-hum 27-14 home win over a terrible South Carolina team last week.  We won a Best Bet selection on Mississippi State in that game, but we have no hesitation in playing against them this week.  The Bulldogs will be playing their first road game of the season, and sophomore quarterback Nick Fitzgerald will be making his first collegiate road start in one of the toughest venues in all of college football.  Mississippi State needs to run the ball to be effective, but they have a very small chance of doing so successfully against a strong LSU defensive line.  This game will rely on Fitzgerald’s arm, but there’s little reason to expect him having any success against the Tigers’ stout defense.

LSU has yet to play their best football this season.  They lost their season opener against Wisconsin, and last week they beat Jacksonville State 34-13.  But there are reasons to expect LSU’s ‘A’ game on Saturday night.  The Tigers played without their best running back, Leonard Fournette, last week because of an injury.  But all reports indicate he’ll be back to full strength for this game.  LSU also got little production out of quarterback Brandon Harris, so head coach Les Miles will start Danny Etling who replaced Harris last week.  Scouts are extremely high on Etling’s abilities, and most say he’ll be a NFL quarterback.  LSU has exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and despite their sluggish play so far this season, they are a very good team.  The Tigers are primed for a peak performance, so we’ll lay the points with LSU at home on Saturday night. 

10* Play LSU (-).

UL Monroe went just 2-11 SU last season, and with only eleven starters returning, 2016 projects to be another long year.  The Warhawks come into this game with a 1-1 SU record; they beat FCS Southern at home, and last week they got blasted 59-17 at Oklahoma.  The Warhawks took a physical beating in that game as they gave up a whopping 640 yards of total offense, including 288 yards on the ground.  UL Monroe allowed Oklahoma to run for 6.3 yards per rush, and they allowed 239 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per rush versus Southern.  It’s pretty clear that the Warhawks have an abysmal rush defense after giving up a total of 527 yards on the ground in just two games.  That spells trouble against a Georgia Southern offense that runs the ball on just about every play.  In last year’s 51-31 home loss to the Eagles, UL Monroe gave up 455 rushing yards on 67 carries.

Georgia Southern has a winning program, and in fact, the Eagles have won nine games or more in five of the last six years.  They went 7-4 SU the lone year they failed to reach the 9-win mark.  The Eagles are already 2-0 SU this season after winning their first two games by a combined score of 78-9.  Georgia Southern runs the triple-option offense, and it’s extremely difficult to stop for inexperienced defenses.  The Eagles have averaged 324 yards or more on the ground per game in each of the last five seasons.  They’ve also averaged 5.8 yards per rush during that span; they averaged a whopping 6.8 yards per rush against UL Monroe last year.  This game is a compete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Georgia Southern on Saturday night.

9* Play GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-).

Oregon comes into this game with a 2-0 SU record, but they are 0-2 ATS, and that’s a negative indicator.  The Ducks played two inferior opponents on their strong home field, and they were unable to win either game by a significant margin.  Oregon gave up 26 and 28 points in those two games as well, so that’s not a good sign either.  The Ducks allowed FCS UC Davis to make 20 first downs while gaining 392 yards of offense in their season opener.  In their game against Virginia last week, Oregon gave up 28 first downs and 388 yards of offense.  But even more alarming was the fact that they allowed Virginia to run for 193 yards on 4.8 yards per rush.  Oregon will now travel to play their first road game of the season while taking a monumental step-up in offensive class.

Nebraska also comes into this game with a 2-0 record, but the Cornhuskers are 2-0 ATS after waxing their opponents, Fresno State and Wyoming, by a combined score of 95-27.  The Cornhuskers went just 6-7 last season, but they had the biggest misleading record in all of college football.  Their seven losses came by a combined 31 points, and incredibly, four of their six losses came on the final play of the game.  Nebraska averaged 32.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus opponents that only gave up 25 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Those numbers show how good of team they were last season.  Nebraska is averaging 215 rushing yards per game, so they’ll run all over the poor Oregon defensive line.  My power ratings make Nebraska a solid 6.5-point favorite, so there’s tremendous value in taking the Cornhuskers in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

Fresno State is still in rebuilding mode after going 3-9 last season.  The Bulldogs lost their season opener 43-10 at Nebraska after getting out-gained 406-274 in that game.  Fresno State gave up 292 rushing yards while allowing Nebraska to average 5.7 yards per rush.  The Bulldogs beat FCS Sacramento State at home last week, but once again, they gave up 99 rushing yards to an inferior opponent.  Fresno State will now have to travel for the second time in three weeks, and they’ll be heading across the country to play in the Eastern time zone.  This is a terrible scheduling spot for Fresno State, and the matchup on the field is horrendous as well.

Toledo is in their first year under head coach Jason Candle, but the Rockets have been impressive in their first two games.  Toledo is 2-0 after beating Arkansas State and FCS Maine by a combined score of 76-13.  The Rockets have 7 returning offensive starters back from last season’s 10-2 team which averaged 35 points per game on 461 yards of offense per game.  Toledo’s strength is running the football; they averaged 208 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per rush last season.  In two games this season, the Rockets have rushed for 372 yards on 4.8 yards per rush.  Toledo will run all over the poor Fresno State defense, so we’ll lay the points with the Rockets on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play TOLEDO (-).

Houston has picked up right where they left off last season.  The Cougars went 13-1 last season, and they are already 2-0 this year, including an upset win at Oklahoma in their season opener.  Make no mistake about it, Houston is a very good team.  But tonight’s game in Cincinnati will be  an extremely challenging game for the Cougars.  Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is nursing a shoulder injury; he did not play in last week’s game against Lamar.  Running back Duke Catalon also missed last week’s game with a sprained ankle, so Houston’s top two playmakers are both playing at less than 100%.  Houston beat Cincinnati 33-30 as 9-point home favorites last season, but that was a misleading win as the Cougars were out-gained 589-427 by the Bearcats in that game.

Cincinnati only went 7-6 last season, but the Bearcats lost three games by single digits, and they actually out-gained their conference opponents by 167.4 yards per game.  Those numbers do not translate into a 6-loss team, so the Bearcats were an undervalued team coming into 2016.  Cincinnati is 2-0 on the season, including an easy win at Purdue last week.  Quarterback Hayden Moore is now under center full time, and he’s been terrific so far this season.  Moore has thrown for 510 yards with 5 touchdowns and just 1 interception.  He will face a Houston defense that gave up 323 passing yards on a whopping 9.5 yards per pass attempt to Oklahoma back in Week 1.  My power ratings only make Houston a 3-point favorite in this game, so getting a touchdown with the Bearcats presents some excellent value.  We’ll take the points with Cincinnati in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CINCINNATI (+).

Washington State made a big jump last season when they went from a 3-9 team in 2014 to a 9-3 team in 2015.  However, the Cougars were a fortunate team as five of their wins came by 7 points or less.  Washington State also won four games outright as underdogs, including two as double digit underdogs.  The Cougars were not as good as those numbers would indicate as they only out-scored their opponents by 3.8 points per game.  It was a fluky good season, and we expect major regression in 2016.  We saw that last week when the Cougars lost 45-42 as 27.5-point home favorites against FCS Eastern Washington.  The Cougars gave up a whopping 606 yards of offense in that game, so to say Washington State has a terrible defense may be an understatement.

Boise State failed to win 10 games or more in 2015 for just the second time in the past ten years.  Head coach Bryan Harsin is in his third season, and with the returning talent on hand, his team is poised for big things in 2016.  All three of their best offensive players are back, including quarterback Mark Rypien.  He was a first-team All-Mountain West selection as a true freshman, and with natural development, the sky is the limit for Rypien.  He will also benefit from a change in coaching responsibilities.  Harsin, who was the offensive coordinator under former coach Chris Petersen from 2006-2010, is calling the plays in 2016.  Boise State’s offense was terrific last week as they scored 45 points on 584 yards of total offense at UL Lafayette.  The Broncos will be able to score at will against a woeful Washington State defense, so we’ll lay the points with Boise State in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

South Carolina is still in rebuilding mode despite winning their season opener at Vanderbilt.  The Gamecocks were trailing 10-0 at the half before winning on a last-second field goal.  South Carolina’s offense only tallied 14 first downs on 308 yards of total offense.  That was hardly a winning performance, especially in a SEC game.  New head coach Will Muschamp inherited a very inexperienced team that only returned nine total starters from a team that went just 3-9 last season.  However, only five of those players started the last game for one reason or another.  The Gamecocks also mixed in true freshman quarterback, Brandon McIlwain, who struggled mightily.  South Carolina’s defense has been horrendous in recent years.  The Gamecocks gave up 30.4 points and 433 yards per game in 2014, and they allowed 27.5 points and 430 yards per game in 2015.  That spells trouble in this game against the Bulldogs.  

Mississippi State was embarrassed at home by South Alabama last week; the Bulldogs lost 21-20 as 27.5-point favorites.  However, they led that game 20-7 heading into the fourth quarter before the Jaguars scored the winning touchdown with less than a minute to play.  While it’s true Mississippi State is without quarterback Dak Prescott who is now starting for the Cowboys in the NFL, their offensive strength is running the football.  The Bulldogs rushed for 239 yards on a whopping 7.0 yards per rush in last week’s game.  That strong rushing attack should control this game against South Carolina’s young and porous defense, especially after seeing Vanderbilt have rushing success last week.  This is a good bounce back spot for Mississippi State, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (-).

Florida Atlantic may be a good team in Conference USA this season, but they are simply out-classed in this game versus Miami.  The Owls have shown no ability to step-up in class on the road in recent years as their defense cannot stop teams from BCS conferences.  In their last five road games versus power conferences, Florida Atlantic has allowed 34, 45, 55, 41, and 20 points for an average of 39 points per game.  The Owls hosted the Hurricanes last season, and they gave up 44 points on 526 yards of total offense in their 24-point loss.  Florida Atlantic beat FCS Southern Illinois 38-30 last week, but they lost the first down battle 26-19 while getting out-gained 530-457 in the game.  Now they’ll hit the road while taking a major step-up in class.    

Miami did not have any ‘Golden Years’ under former head coach Al Golden.  The Hurricanes are now led by former Georgia head coach Mark Richt who stepped into a terrific situation in South Florida.  The Hurricanes’ offense returned nearly intact, including all five starters along the offensive line.  Miami scored 70 points on 523 yards of total offense in their 67-point win over Florida A&M last week.  Miami’s experienced defense has a new coordinator in Manny Diaz, and that unit was stout last week while holding their opponent to just 3 points and 197 yards of total offense.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes on Saturday night.

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Louisville’s offense was in mid-season form last week as they scored 70 points on 663 yards against Charlotte.  The Cardinals were extremely balanced in that game with 272 yards on the ground and 391 yards thru the air.  Quarterback Lamar Jackson completed 73.9% (17-23) of his passes while throwing six touchdown passes and zero interceptions.  Louisville’s offense should have another productive offensive game against a Syracuse defense that is taking a major step-up in class after facing a pedestrian Colgate offense last week.  The Orange gave up 31 points and 439 yards per game last season; they gave up 41 points on 579 yards of offense to Louisville.

Syracuse scored 33 points on 554 yards of total offensive in their easy 26-point win over Colgate last week.  New head coach Dino Babers brought his fast-paced, high-octane offense with him from Bowling Green where his teams averaged 30 and 42.2 points per game in his two years.  Syracuse’s offense was efficient as they ran 81 plays overall, including 46 pass attempts that averaged a whopping 9.5 yards per pass.  Quarterback Eric Dungey completed an incredible 85% (34-40) of his passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns.  Look for a lot of offense in this game; Louisville and Syracuse Over the total.      

9* Play OVER the total.

Florida State returns 17 total starters; the most they’ve had in 20 years.  The defense made big strides last season by limiting opponents to just 4.7 yards per play, so expect the Seminoles to have one of the best stop units in the country.  However, the quarterback position is the biggest question mark for the Seminoles.  Redshirt freshman Deondre Francois is said to be the real deal, and he certainly looks like it on film, but this is his first collegiate start, and his team is laying too many points into a very good Mississippi team.  The Seminoles do have an excellent running back in Dalvin Cook who will take the pressure off Francois, so a conservative game plan is quite possible here.

Mississippi has improved each season under head coach Hugh Freeze.  The Rebels have won 7, 8, 9, and 10 games in his first four years on the job.  While it’s unlikely Mississippi will win 11 games this season, there’s no question they will be a very good team once again.  Quarterback Chad Kelly is a senior, so that gives him a huge experience edge over Francois in this game.  Kelly has won a lot of big games for the Rebels, including back-to-back wins over Alabama.  The Rebels’ defense has been excellent in recent years, and there’s talk they will return to the 16 points per game unit they had in 2014.  My power ratings make Florida State a 4-point favorite, so we’ll take the extra points with Mississippi in this game on Monday night.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (+).

Notre Dame was a loss away from reaching the college football playoff last season.  The Irish could find themselves in the hunt once again this season as their schedule sets up nicely for a deep run.  Notre Dame will play a two quarterback system with DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire, so it will be interesting to see how the offense performs in that situation.  Notre Dame will be facing a Texas defense that should be much improved this year as they return eight starters on that side of the ball.

Texas has a lot of hype coming into 2016.  Head coach Charlie Strong is on a very hot seat, so it’s all or nothing for the Longhorns.  Texas will also be running a two quarterback offense with senior Tyrone Swoopes and true freshman Shane Buechele under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert who was behind Baylor’s potent offensive attack the last few seasons.  However, Texas is installing a fast tempo, full spread offense, and it’s simply going to take time for them to execute it correctly and efficiently.  Notre Dame’s defense held Texas to just 3 points and 8 first downs on just 163 yards of total offense in last year’s game, and it’s hard to see the Longhorns having a lot of success in this game.  We expect a low-scoring game between Notre Dame and Texas on Sunday night.      

9* Play UNDER the total.

Todd Monken revived the once solid Southern Miss football program.  Monken improved the teams’ record in each year he was there, and it culminated with a West title in 2015.  But as is the case with success at non-power conference schools, the coach uses it as a stepping stone for a higher-profile, and a bigger paying job.  Monken left Southern Miss to be the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL.  Jay Hopson is the new head coach; he spent six seasons under Jeff Bower at Southern Miss, so he’s returning to a very familiar place.  Hopson went 28-10 in his final three seasons as Alcorn State while winning two SWAC titles over that time.  Hopson brought defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro with him, and his aggressive unit recorded 46 sacks and 119 tackles for loss.  The Golden Eagles return an experienced team that has an explosive offense (39.9 ppg in 2015).  Quarterback Nick Mullens and running back Ito Smith form a formidable duo in the backfield.

Kentucky has been a disappointing team under head coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats are just 12-24 SU in his three years, and there’s nothing pointing to a winning 2016 season.  Kentucky will be working in a new quarterback (Drew Barker) after last year’s starter Patrick Towles transferred to Boston College.  The Wildcats’ offense scored more than 27 points in just three of their ten games last season, so it’s hard to imagine much improvement this season.  Kentucky’s defense will be a major issue as they only return five starters on that side of the ball.  The Wildcats lost seven of their top eight tacklers from last year’s improved unit, so they’ll revert back to the 31.3 points per game they allowed in Stoops’ first two seasons.  My power ratings only make Kentucky 2-point favorites, so we’ll take the points with Southern Mississippi in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (+).

Georgia will begin a new era on Saturday night as new head coach Kirby Smart replaces Mark Richt who won 145 games over the last 15 seasons.  Smart has never been a head coach; he made his mark as Alabama’s defensive coordinator over the last eight seasons.  Smart inherits a Georgia team that went 10-3 last season, but five of those wins came by 7 points or less.  The Bulldogs do return 14 starters, but their offense has to improve significantly if they expect to win 10 games or more for the third consecutive season.  Georgia’s offense averaged just 26.3 points on 377 yards per game last season, and with freshman quarterback Jacob Eason close to replacing inconsistent senior Greyson Lambert under center, the Bulldogs have many questions to answer coming into 2016.

North Carolina had their breakout season under head coach Larry Fedora last year when they went 11-3 en route to a trip to the ACC championship game.  The Tar Heels have an excellent chance at repeating last season’s success, especially since they return 14 overall starters.  North Carolina did lose quarterback Marquise Williams, but Mitch Trubisky has plenty of experience, and he also possess similar skills.  The Tar Heels also return all of their skill players from an offense that averaged 40.7 points on 487 yards per game in 2015.  North Carolina’s defense improved by 14.5 points last season, and that unit should be just as good this year.  My power ratings make this game a Pick, so getting a field goal with the Tar Heels present some good value.  We’ll take the points with North Carolina in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play NORTH CAROLINA (+).

South Carolina is in rebuilding mode.  Steve Spurrier retired, and in steps former Florida head coach Will Muschamp.  He’ll inherit a very inexperienced team that only returned nine total starters from a team that went just 3-9 last season.  However, only five of those starters are expected to start this game because the others have either lost their starting job due to injury or performance, are injured or have quit the team.  The Gamecocks will also play a true freshman at quarterback (Brandon McIlwain); young quarterbacks making their first start on the road has been a negative situation in college football over the years.  South Carolina’s defense has also been horrendous in recent years.  The Gamecocks gave up 30.4 points and 433 yards per game in 2014, and they allowed 27.5 points and 430 yards per game in 2015.

Vanderbilt is set for a breakout season in 2016.  The Commodores are in their third year under head coach Derek Mason, and they return 15 overall starters.  Mason has high expectations for his team, saying “never been more excited for what this team has to offer.”  Vanderbilt will have the services of their best offensive player, running back Ralph Webb, and their best defensive player, linebacker Zach Cunningham on the field which solidifies both sides of the ball.  Vanderbilt is 5-1 SU as a home favorite under Mason; they won those games by an average of 12.4 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Vanderbilt in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play VANDERBILT (-).

Clemson had a surprising season by going undefeated at 14-0.  The Tigers were projected to be a year or two away from having a really good team after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 10-3 team that beat Oklahoma 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  Clemson was hardly challenged this season, but their two closest games came against the two best defense they faced; they beat Louisville 20-17 and they beat Notre Dame 24-22.  The Tigers will now face the best defense in the country, so their offense has an extremely difficult challenge ahead of them.  Alabama’s defense allowed just 13.4 points per game on 4.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide had even better defensive numbers away from home where they gave up just 12 points per game.  Clemson’s offense and quarterback Deshaun Watson may pose a threat to Alabama’s defense early on because the Tigers run the spread and Watson is the best mobile quarterback in the country.  “I think mobile quarterbacks are a problem for every defense, not just us,” said Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.  “We’re maybe better at stopping the traditional-style offenses.”  While that is concerning, it also means Watson is going to take more powerful hits than normal, and that will take a toll on him as this game goes on.

Alabama went 13-1 this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 3 against Mississippi as 9-point favorites.  Twelve of their thirteen wins this season have come by 13 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 23.1 points per game.  Alabama’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 204.4 yards per game on the ground and 219.4 yards per game thru the air.  Alabama ran for 215 yards or more in eight games this season, and they won those games by an average of 18.9 points per game.  Clemson’s defense allowed 130 rushing yards or more seven times this season, and the Tigers gave up 25.3 points per game in those games.  Clemson’s defense gave up just 20 points per game overall, so their defense is vulnerable against good rushing attacks, and Alabama has one of the best in the country with Derrick Henry.  Overall, Alabama ranked 9th in offensive and defensive efficiency combined while Clemson ranked 28th.  That’s a significant difference, and it clearly shows that Alabama is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide in the championship game on Monday night.

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

West Virginia and Arizona State have two offensive-minded coaches that will result in a high-scoring shootout.  The Mountaineers’ offense averaged 33.2 points per game this season, and their recent bowl history suggests a lot of points in this game.  West Virginia’s last two bowl games were both shootouts; they lost 45-37 to Texas A&M last year and they beat Clemson 70-33 a few years back.  The Mountaineers have solid seasonal numbers on defense, but they were night and day at home and on the road.  Away from home, West Virginia’s defense was simply terrible as they gave up 34 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Against seven bowl opponents, West Virginia gave up 33 points per game on 429 yards of offense this season.  West Virginia is taking a major step-up in offensive class against Arizona State in this game, and we expect the Mountaineers’ defense to get exposed.       

Arizona State has a potent offense that averaged 34 points per game this season.  The Sun Devils were well-balanced as they averaged 185.2 yards on the ground and 288.6 yards thru the air per game this season.  Head coach Todd Graham has a history of scoring a lot of points in bowl games; 36 points last year, 62 points in 2012, 62 points in 2010, 45 points in 2008, and 63 points in 2007.  Arizona State’s defense played below average this season as the Sun Devils allowed 32.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Against the ten bowl teams they faced this season, Arizona State gave up 35 points on 457 yards of offense per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between West Virginia and Arizona State on Saturday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Kansas State and Arkansas are all offense and no defense, so we expect a high-scoring shootout on Saturday afternoon.  Kansas State averaged 30.5 points per game this season.  The Wildcats are extremely well-balanced as they ran and passed for more than 160 yards per game this season.  Kansas State will be facing a poor Arkansas defense that allowed 28.2 points per game on 6.4 yards per play away from home.  Overall, the Razorbacks gave up 6.1 yards per play against a weak slate of offenses that only averaged 5.9 yards per play this season.  Against the nine bowl teams they faced this season, Arkansas allowed 32 points on 437 yards of offense per game.     

Arkansas also had a very good offense this season.  The Razorbacks averaged 35.2 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 27.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Like Kansas State, the Razorbacks were extremely well-balanced as they ran for 192 yards and threw for 264 yards per game this season.  Kansas State’s defense played below average football as the Wildcats gave up 30.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 31.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Against the seven bowl teams they faced this season, Kansas State allowed 41 points on 526 yards of offense per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Kansas State and Arkansas on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Mississippi and Oklahoma State both have explosive offenses, and on a fast track inside a dome, we expect a high-scoring game.  The Rebels have an offense that averaged 40.2 points per game on 7.0 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 29.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Mississippi is well-balanced as they ran for 182 yards per game and passed for more than 333 yards per game.  The Rebels running game averaged 5.1 yards per rush this season, and they will face an Oklahoma State run defense that is not in good current form.  The Cowboys allowed 218 rushing yards or more in their last four games of the season.  Oklahoma State’s defense gave up 29 points or more in their last five games, and overall they allowed 37 points and 524 yards per game to the seven bowl opponents they faced this season.

Oklahoma State had an explosive passing attack this season.  The Cowboys threw for 357 yards per game on an incredible 9.1 yards per pass attempt.  Quarterback Mason Rudolph will face a Mississippi secondary that ranked 55th in efficiency while giving up 23 passing touchdowns this season.  Overall, Oklahoma State’s offense averaged 41.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  The Cowboys will face a Mississippi defense that allowed 31.6 points per game away from home this season.  The Rebels defense allowed 402 yards or more in four of their five road games this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between Mississippi and Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl on Friday night.   

9* Play OVER the total.

Notre Dame played tremendous football this season, and they didn’t skip a beat with their backup quarterback (DeShone Kizer) after losing starter Malik Zaire for the season in Week 2.  Notre Dame’s offense averaged 34.7 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Those impressive offensive numbers came against a strong slate of defenses that allowed 24.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Notre Dame has an exceptional rushing attack that averaged 215.6 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush.  That strong running game has opened up big plays downfield for Notre Dame, and it has allowed quarterback Kizer to throw for an incredible 8.7 yards per pass attempt this season.  The Fighting Irish have incredible offensive balance as they also pass for 256.3 yards per game; teams with such a profile are exceptional plays as underdogs, especially in bowl games.

Ohio State went 11-1 this season, but the Buckeyes weren’t as dominant as some of their previous teams; the Buckeyes went just 5-7 ATS on the year.  Ohio State actually played a worse slate of defenses than Notre Dame as their opponents allowed 27.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Fighting Irish also played a tougher slate of opposing offenses this season; Notre Dame gave up just 22.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus opponents that averaged 28.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Ohio State played an extremely weak schedule this season, and in fact, it was ranked 58th by efficiency metrics.  To compare, Notre Dame played the 16th rated schedule, and they simply played better football on both sides of the ball against the tougher competition.  This is also a meaningless game for Ohio State after winning the national championship last season, so we’ll take Notre Dame plus the points in this game on Friday afternoon.  

10* Play NOTRE DAME (+).

Clemson had a surprising season by going undefeated at 13-0.  The Tigers were projected to be a year or two away from having a really good team after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 10-3 team that beat Oklahoma 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  Clemson was hardly challenged this season, but their two closest games came against the two best defense they faced; they beat Louisville 20-17 and they beat Notre Dame 24-22.  The Tigers will now face a strong Oklahoma defense that allowed just 20.7 points per game on 4.7 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 33.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Clemson’s offense hasn’t faced a complete defense like Oklahoma’s all season that combines talent, speed, and physicality at just about every position.  Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson had a fantastic season, but he will be throwing the ball on an Oklahoma secondary that is rated #1 in pass efficiency defense; they allowed just 52.6% completions with 19 interceptions on the season.  Clemson handed down some suspensions this week, including wide receiver Deon Cain who was the Tigers’ biggest deep threat.  

Oklahoma went 11-1 this season with their lone loss coming against rival Texas as 16-point favorites.  Ten of their eleven wins this season have come by 7 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 27.9 points per game.  Oklahoma’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 235 yards per game on the ground and 308 yards per game thru the air.  Oklahoma ran for 232 yards or more in eight games this season, and they averaged an incredible 52 points per game in those games.  Clemson’s defense allowed 130 rushing yards or more seven times this season, and the Tigers gave up 25.3 points per game in those games.  Clemson’s defense gave up just 20.2 points per game, so their defense is vulnerable against good rushing attacks.  Overall, Oklahoma averaged 45.7 points per game on 7.0 yards per play which is by far the best offense Clemson will face this season.  Oklahoma is simply the better team on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Sooners in this game on Thursday afternoon.

10* Play OKLAHOMA (-).

Wisconsin and USC match-up well for a low-scoring game on Wednesday night.  The Badgers play a conservative style of football as they rely heavily on their running game and their defense to win games.  Quarterback Joel Stave is a below-average college quarterback, and it’s highly unlikely he will do much damage against a fast and aggressive USC defense.  Overall this season, Wisconsin’s offense only averaged 27.1 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 27.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Away from home, the Badgers only averaged 4.9 yards per play.  Wisconsin will face a USC defense that played very well considering the tough offensive teams they went up against.  The Trojans allowed 25.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 34.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.

USC’s offense was projected to be much better than they were this season.  The Trojans have a terrific quarterback in Cody Kessler, but their offensive line was a mess all season long, and that line is in shambles for this game.  Kessler got sacked 35 times this season, and the line in front of him tonight will be missing its starting left tackle while a right side starter will flip to the left side  with a true freshman starting as well.  USC’s success this season came when they were able to run the ball consistently, but that is going to be extremely difficult to do in this game.  Wisconsin has an excellent defense that is only allowing 13.1 points per game on 4.4 yards per play this season.  The Badgers have been terrific in stopping the run as they only gave up 98.2 yards per game on 3.2 yards per rush this season.  Wisconsin and USC will both have trouble generating offense, so we expect a low-scoring game on Wednesday night. 

10* Play UNDER the total.

Texas Tech and LSU is a terrific matchup for a back and forth high-scoring shootout.  The Red Raiders will throw the ball on just about every play while the Tigers will run the ball for chunk yards on just about every play.  Texas Tech has a potent offense that averaged 46.6 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play this season.  Texas Tech was well-balanced as they ran for 206 yards per game and threw for 390 yards per game.  The Red Raiders played seven bowl opponents this season, and their offense didn’t slow down at all.  They averaged 41 points per game on 549 yards per game while gaining 6.7 yards per play.  The impressive thing about Texas Tech’s offensive numbers is the fact they accumulated them against a decent group of opposing defenses.  The Red Raiders’ opponents only allowed 5.9 yards per play as a group.  In three games in which LSU allowed 140 yards or more on the ground and thru the air, their opponents scored 30, 31, and 38 points.     

LSU had an explosive offense early in the season; the Tigers averaged 38.9 points per game over their first seven games this season.  They scored 44 points or more in four of those games.  But the Tigers struggled down the stretch against some stout SEC defenses; they only averaged 16.5 points per game in their last four conference games.  LSU will now face one of the worst defenses in the country, and we fully expect their offense to look like they did early in the season.  Overall, LSU averaged 30.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Tigers put those numbers up against a group of defenses that only allowed 25.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  LSU has a potent running game that averaged 246.6 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush.  Texas Tech’s defense was shredded for 42.6 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  Against seven bowl teams, Texas Tech allowed 50 points per game on 7.2 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between Texas Tech and LSU on Tuesday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Tulsa and Virginia Tech both went 6-6 this season.  Both teams played difficult schedules, so this bowl game is a nice reward which means it should be played fast and loose.  Tulsa’s offense was explosive under head coach Philip Montgomery who was previously Baylor’s offensive coordinator.  Montgomery installed a similar scheme to the one he ran at Baylor, and Tulsa was a scoring machine this year.  The Golden Hurricane averaged 35.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play this season.  Their offense was even better away from home where they averaged 36.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Tulsa scored 40 points or more in six of their twelve games with three of those games coming on the road.  Tulsa will face a Virginia Tech defense that allowed 30 points per game on 6.0 yards per play against the six bowl teams they played this season.  

Virginia Tech’s offensive numbers were skewed this season because starting quarterback Michael Brewer missed five games because of injury.  But over the last five games of the season, the Hokies’ offense averaged 28.4 points per game.  Overall this season, Virginia Tech averaged 29 points per game against a slate of defensive opponents that only allowed 25.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Virginia Tech will face an atrocious Tulsa defense that allowed 38.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  Against six bowl teams this season, the Golden Hurricane gave up 45 points per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per play.  Virginia Tech’s offense will face the worst defense they’ve seen all season, and it would be shocking if they didn’t score 40 points or more in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Tulsa and Virginia Tech on Saturday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Southern Mississippi has a strong 9-4 record this season, but the Golden Eagles played an extremely easy schedule.  In fact, Southern Mississippi played the 125th schedule this season compared to Washington who played the 35th toughest schedule in the country this season.  Southern Mississippi is playing in their first bowl game in four years, and their first bowl game under head coach Todd Monken.  Southern Mississippi had solid offensive numbers this season; they averaged 40.6 points per game on 7.0 yards per play.  However, the Golden Eagles played one of the softest slates of defensive opponents in the country; their opponents gave up 32.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Golden Eagles are taking a major step-up in defensive class against Washington in this game, and we expect Southern Mississippi’s offense to get stymied in this game.          

Washington went just 6-6 in the regular season, but as mentioned above, the Huskies played a brutal schedule.  In fact, Washington faced a whopping 10 bowl teams in their twelve games this season.  Three of those opponents have already played their bowl games; they went 2-1 with the offenses scoring a combined 121 points.  Washington’s defense was excellent this season as the Huskies held four opponents to their season-low and second season-low in yards.  Overall, Washington gave up just 17.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 31.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Head coach Chris Petersen had a history of success in bowl games while at Boise State, but last year Washington lost their bowl game in Petersen’s first season.  This is an important game for Petersen and the Washington program, so we expect a motivated effort.  We’ll lay the points with the Huskies in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

10* Play WASHINGTON (-).

Boise State and Northern Illinois had similar records this season; the Broncos went 8-4 while the Huskies went 8-5.  Both teams played extremely easy schedules with Boise State facing the #105 schedule and Northern Illinois facing the #97 schedule.  Boise State’s offenses was terrific this season as they averaged 37.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Broncos’ offense was even better away from home where they averaged 40.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Broncos scored 52 points or more in four games this season.  Northern Illinois’ defense gave up 400 yards per game this season, so it doesn’t make sense that they only allowed 25.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Those numbers don’t jive, and in fact, the Huskies allowed 26 points or more in eight of their twelve games this season.  Against the six bowl teams they faced, the Huskies allowed an average of 197 rushing yards and 202 passing yards per game.

Northern Illinois also has a potent offense that is extremely well-balanced.  Overall this season, the Huskies averaged 33 points per game with 205 rushing yards and 222 passing yards per game.  They put those strong numbers up against a slate of defensive opponents that allowed 29.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Northern Illinois will face a Boise State defense that faced a slew of weak offenses that only averaged 25.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Broncos’ defense will face the best offense they’ve seen all season, and they’ve had trouble against strong rushing offenses.  In three games against bowl teams in which they allowed 150 rushing yards or more, Boise State gave up 52, 31, and 37 points.  We expect a high-scoring game between Boise State and Northern Illinois in this game on Wednesday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Toledo and Temple are evenly matched, so this game should be close throughout and come right down to the wire.  My power ratings make this game a Pick, so there is a bit of value on the underdog; there would be a lot of value on Toledo if the line were to hit +3.  The teams played similar schedules, Toledo #84 and Temple #74, and their overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board.  The Rockets went 9-2 SU and a solid 8-2-1 ATS this season.  Their successful season prompted Iowa State to hire head coach Matt Campbell away.  But Toledo promoted offensive coordinator Jason Candle to replace Campbell, and his hire has been well accepted by the players, especially since he declined an offer to join Campbell at Iowa State.  “A lot of people like coach Candle as the head coach,” running back Terry Swanson said.  “He’s a great guy. I feel like there’s a lot of excitement and hype to him. We just like playing for him.”  Toledo’s offense averaged 35.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play this season, and with Candle still calling the plays, the Rockets’ offense shouldn't skip a beat.  

Temple went 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS on the season.  All three of their losses did come against teams playing in bowl games, but only three of their wins came against bowl teams.  Temple’s offense benefitted from short fields a lot this season.  Despite averaging 30.8 points per game, the Owls only averaged 5.4 yards per play despite facing defenses that allowed 5.7 yards per play.  Temple’s offense declined against tougher competition as well as they averaged 6 points per game less and 0.3 yards per play less against the seven bowl teams they faced.  The Owls have good overall defensive numbers, but they were vulnerable to good rushing attacks.  Toledo averages 211 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per rush.  Temple went 0-3 SU against bowl teams when allowing 150 rushing yards or more this season.  And those games weren’t even close as Temple lost by a combined score of 92-56.  We’ll take the points with Toledo in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play TOLEDO (+).

Louisiana Tech and Arkansas State are all offense and no defense, so we expect a high-scoring shootout on Saturday night.  Louisiana Tech has a potent offense that averaged 36.7 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this season.  The Bulldogs were well-balanced as they ran for 154 yards and threw for 311 yards per game this season.  Louisiana Tech will be facing a poor Arkansas State defense that allowed 33.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play away from home this season.  Overall, the Red Wolves allowed 28.8 points per game against a weak slate of offenses that only averaged 26.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  Against the four bowl teams they faced this season, Arkansas State allowed 38 points on 486 yards of offense per game.     

Arkansas State also had a very good offense this season.  The Red Wolves averaged 41 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 33.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Like Louisiana Tech, the Red Wolves were extremely well-balanced as they ran for 236 yards and threw for 212 yards per game this season.  Louisiana Tech’s defense played below average football this season as the Bulldogs gave up 31.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play away from home.  Against the five bowl teams they faced this season, Louisiana Tech allowed 40 points on 471 yards of offense per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech on Saturday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

The Under is a perfect 9-0 the past nine years in this series.  It is not a surprise as both teams run the exact same option-offense and each defense is very familiar defending the run.  The past nine head-to-head meetings have averaged just 36 total points per game, despite the average Over/Under line being posted at 52 points.  The oddsmakers continue to base the total on the overall seasonal numbers for each team, but this is not an accurate projection on how these games play out on the field.  In fact, the same Under trend has been prevalent when facing the other military option team, Air Force, as well.  This season the Navy/Air Force game totaled just 44 total points (O/U line 49.5), while the Army/Air Force game totaled only 23 points scored (O/U line 50.5).  Army is now 14-3 Under in recent games versus Navy and Air Force, while Navy is on an incredible 17-2 Under run versus the other two service academies.

The reason these military games are lower scoring than expected is because the oddsmakers use overall season statistics which are inflated.  The military academies are less athletic in the defensive backfield, and unfamiliar with passing offenses, so opponents often put up big passing numbers.  Meanwhile, option offenses normally have more success against conventional defensive opponents who are not familiar with stopping a run-heavy attack.  This means both offensive and defensive seasonal scoring numbers are inflated for the service academies in regular games, but this does not apply when two service academies face each other because they all run the triple-option offense which means very few passes are thrown.  This means less big plays and more game clock being consumed on drives.

Army's weak defensive numbers this season are largely the result of a terrible pass defense that has allowed 62% completions and 8.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 57% and 7.3 ypp).  Army's secondary has been particularly bad on the road, allowing 68% completions and 9.2 ypp.  However, this defensive weakness is irrelevant today against a Navy offense that has run the ball on 88% of their total offensive plays this season (58 runs, 8 passes per game).  Army's run defense has actually been respectable this year, allowing just 163 yards and 4.5 yards per rush (versus opponents that average 156 yards and 4.2 ypr).

Navy has been a solid defensive team this season, allowing just 21.7 points per game and only 3.9 yards per rush (versus opponents that average 29.4 ppg and 4.5 ypr).  The Midshipmen should have no trouble stopping a weak Army offense that averages just 22.5 points per game this year (versus opponents that allow 28.9 ppg).  Army has run the ball on 87% of their total offensive plays this season (52 runs, 8 passes per game), so the Black Knights will have a tough time playing from behind in this game, especially since they average a paltry 44% completions overall this year.

9* Play UNDER (Army/Navy) the total.

USC and Stanford will play for the second time this season; the Cardinal won 41-31 way back in Week 3.  The Trojans were 9.5-point home favorites in that game, and they jumped out to a 21-3 lead late in the second quarter.  Stanford only won yardage 474-427 despite having a 39:29-20:31 time of possession edge.  USC ran for 155 yards on 5.5 yards per rush, and quarterback Cody Kessler completed 78.1% (25-32) of his passes for 272 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Overall this season, USC is averaging 36 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow 28.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  USC’s defense has also played terrific this season; the Trojans are only giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that average 34.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.

Stanford comes into this game as winners of ten of their last eleven games.  However, the Cardinal have been fortunate in a couple of those recent games.  Stanford needed a missed field goal to escape Washington State, and last week they beat Notre Dame on a last-second field goal.  Stanford was gouged on the ground by the Irish last week as they gave up 299 rushing yards on a whopping 8.5 yards per rush.  Stanford has struggled to stop the run all season while giving up 144.3 yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  USC gashed them in the first meeting, and they’ll do so again as the Trojans average 177 yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  My power ratings only make Stanford a 2.5-point favorite in this game, so there’s excellent value in getting more than a field goal in this game.  We’ll take USC plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play USC (+).

Texas A&M comes into this game with an 8-3 record, but the Aggies have faced a soft schedule while playing just two true road games all season.  They lost 23-3 at Mississippi, but last week they won 25-0 at Vanderbilt.  Their two neutral site games were both in the state of Texas which means the Aggies have played just two of their eleven games this season outside of the state.  Now they are taking a major step-up in class for this night game at LSU, and they are doing so off a perfect performance.  Texas A&M’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 27.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Despite playing at home and against poor defenses, the Aggies are only averaging 30.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Texas A&M is taking a major step-up in defensive class against LSU in this game, and that’s not a good thing considering their offense is set to regress.    

LSU comes into this game on 3-game losing streak with rumors swirling that head coach Les Miles will be let go.  The Tigers played two of their last three games on the road, and since they also lost their last home game, we expect a strong bounce back effort here.  LSU has an excellent defense that is only giving up 25.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 31.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  LSU’s offense has a terrific running game that is averaging 282.8 yards per game on a whopping 6.4 yards per rush at home this season.  They will face a Texas A&M defense that is giving up 202.5 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  All five of LSU’s home wins have come by 7 points or more with their average home win coming by 20.3 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with the Tigers in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play LSU (-).

North Carolina has had a fantastic season so far as they come into this game with a 10-1 record with their lone loss coming way back in their season opener.  But are they as good as their record indicates?  Not quite.  We won a Best Bet selection on Virginia Tech against North Carolina last week, and we’ll come right back and play against the Tar Heels again this week.  They’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country, and seven of their last ten games have come on their home field.  North Carolina has played just three true road games all season with the wins coming by a combined 17 points.  The Tar Heels were 6.5-point underdogs at Georgia Tech, 1-point favorites at Pittsburgh, and 3.5-point favorites at Virginia Tech last week.  North Carolina’s defensive numbers are skewed by the fact that they’ve faced a terrible slate of opposing offenses that only average 24.1 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Tar Heels will face a NC State offense that is averaging 36 points per game at home this season.  

NC State comes into this game with a solid 7-4 record.  That winning mark has come despite playing six of their last nine games on the road.  The Wolfpack has played excellent football on both sides of the ball this season.  NC State is averaging 33.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 26.3 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Wolfpack offense has been even better at home as noted above.  NC State’s defense is only giving up 21.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play against offenses that average 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  My power ratings only make North Carolina a 3-point favorite in this game, so there is some good value on the home underdog.  We’ll take the Wolfpack plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play NC STATE (+).

Georgia is 8-3 on the season, but the Bulldogs have not been impressive at all.  Georgia opened the season with four straight blowout wins, but since October, they’ve underperformed on both sides of the ball.  Georgia is just 4-3 over their last seven games with their four wins coming by 3, 6 in overtime, 7, and 24 points.  That 24-point win came against a terrible Kentucky team.  The Bulldogs have played just two true road games over their last nine games, and they’ve played mediocre football despite playing on their home field.  The Bulldogs are only averaging 21.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season.  Georgia’s defense has also played worse on the road where they are giving up 23 points per game on 5.2 yards per play compared to just 17.8 points per game on 4.7 yards per play overall.   

Georgia Tech comes into this game with a 3-8 record after losing their last three games.  The Yellow Jackets were favored in four of their last five games, but now Georgia Tech is getting more than a field goal at home in this game which creates a lot of value, especially since my power ratings make this game a Pick.  The Yellow Jackets possess a potent rushing attack that averages 262.4 yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush.  Overall this season, Georgia Tech’s offense is averaging 31.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 28.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Georgia Tech’s last win came as home underdogs against Florida State, and we wouldn’t be shocked by a similar outcome here.  We’ll take Georgia Tech plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Iowa comes into this game with a perfect 11-0 record, and they are currently ranked #4 in the country.  However, you’d be hard-pressed to find many (except Iowa fans) that really believe they are the fourth best team in the country.  The Hawkeyes have played an extremely weak schedule, and their two toughest games were both close games which they could have easily lost.  Iowa beat Pittsburgh 27-24, and they beat Wisconsin 10-6; both games were defensive scrums.  The Hawkeyes have faced a poor slate of opposing defenses that allow 169.9 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush as a group.  Iowa’s ability to run the ball successfully on those teams allowed their mediocre passing attack to hit plays downfield.  But Iowa will face a stout Nebraska rush defense that is only giving up 109.8 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per rush this season.  Iowa’s offense becomes very easy to defend when unable to run the football.

Nebraska comes into this game with a 5-6 record, but the Cornhuskers could actually be 10-1 on the season.  Their six losses have come by a combined 23 points, and incredibly, four of their six losses have come on the final play of the game.  Nebraska has faced much tougher defensive opponents than Iowa, and the Cornhuskers have performed better.  Nebraska is averaging 33.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus opponents that only give up 25 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Cornhuskers will have success moving the ball on an Iowa defense that has faced a terrible slate of offensive teams that only average 23.5 points per game on 5.1 yards per play combined.  My power ratings make Nebraska a 4-point favorite, so there’s tremendous value in taking the Cornhuskers as a home underdog in this game.  Nebraska also comes into this game off a bye, so they are rested and ready to hand Iowa their first loss of the season.  We’ll back Nebraska in this game on Friday afternoon. 

10* Play NEBRASKA (+).

Texas A&M comes into this game with a 7-3 record, but the Aggies have faced a soft schedule while playing just one true road game all season.  They lost that game 23-3 at Mississippi.  Their two neutral site games were both in the state of Texas which means the Aggies have played just one of their ten games this season outside of the state.  Texas A&M’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 27.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Despite playing at home and against poor defenses, the Aggies are only averaging 30.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Texas A&M is taking a major step-up in defensive class against Vanderbilt in this game, and they are doing so while laying close to a touchdown on the road.     

Vanderbilt cashed as a Best Bet selection for us last week, and we’ll come right back with them this week.  The Commodores have an excellent defense that is only giving up 17.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  At home, Vanderbilt is only allowing 14.4 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.  Vanderbilt’s offense has mediocre seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a solid slate of defenses that include Florida, Missouri, Georgia, and Mississippi.  The Commodores’ offense will face a Texas A&M defense that is giving up 24 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Vanderbilt is 3-2 at home this season with one of those losses coming by just 2 points.  This is the Commodores home finale, so they will bring their best effort, especially since they come in off a confidence-building win.  We’ll take the points with the Commodores in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play VANDERBILT (+).

Mississippi State had their 4-game winning streak snapped last week at home when they got crushed 31-6 by Alabama.  The Bulldogs took a physical beating in that game, and we’ve seen teams play terrible the following week after playing the Crimson Tide.  Mississippi State’s recent wins have also come against terrible teams like Missouri, Kentucky, Troy, and Louisiana Tech.  Mississippi State has played four of their last five games at home, and this will be just their second road game over the last six weeks.  Mississippi State’s offense has been much worse on the road this season.  They are only averaging 24.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play compared to 31.8 points per game on 6.4 yards per play overall.  The Bulldogs’ defense has been vulnerable on the ground as they are giving up 174.4 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  They will face an Arkansas offense that rushes for 203 yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.

Arkansas is 6-4 on the season, and that’s a pretty good record considering they’ve payed a brutal schedule.  The Razorbacks have played Toledo, at Tennessee, at Alabama, at Mississippi, and at LSU.  Arkansas is facing a much softer opponent in Mississippi State, and the Razorbacks return home with momentum and confidence off back-to-back road wins.  Arkansas will be playing just their third home game since September, so they’ll be ready for this game, especially since they are playing with revenge.  Arkansas has a terrific running game as noted above, and their ability to control the line of scrimmage will be the difference in this game.  Arkansas is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Razorbacks in this game on Saturday night.         

10* Play ARKANSAS (-).

North Carolina has had a fantastic season so far as they come into this game with a 9-1 record with their lone loss coming way back in their season opener.  They lost 17-13 to a bad South Carolina team, and the Tar Heels had multiple chances to win that game.  North Carolina could very well be undefeated, but are they as good as their record indicates?  Not quite.  The Tar Heels have played one of the easiest schedules in the country, and seven of their last nine games have come on their home field.  North Carolina has played just two true road games all season with both games resulting in 7-point wins.  The Tar Heels were 6.5-point underdogs at Georgia Tech, and just 1-point favorites at Pittsburgh, so the fact they are laying more than a field goal in this game presents excellent value on the underdog.  North Carolina’s defensive numbers are skewed by the fact that they’ve faced a terrible slate of opposing offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Tar Heels will face a Virginia Tech offense that is averaging 30 points per game at home this season.  

Virginia Tech comes into this game with a 5-5 record, but that is a direct result of losing starting quarterback Michael Brewer in their season opener against Alabama.  The Hokies’ offense was terrible under Brenden Motley.  But Brewer returned three games ago, and we’ve seen a much better Virginia Tech team.  They’ve gone 2-1 in those games with their lone loss coming by just 2 points in overtime.  The Hokies return home off back-to-back road wins, and this is their home finale, and also the last home game for legendary head coach Frank Beamer who is retiring.  Virginia Tech will come with their best effort in this game, especially since they are in good current form.  The Hokies’ defense is only giving up 24 points per game on 5.3 yards per play against offenses that average 26.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  My power ratings make Virginia Tech a 1-point favorite in this game, so we’ll take the Hokies plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

Washington State comes into this game with a respectable 6-3 record on the season.  Not much was expected from the Cougars, so they’ve certainly overachieved on the field.  However, this is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Washington State, and we expect them to throw in a clunker.  The Cougars have played in three consecutive close, high-scoring games with the last two coming on their home field.  Last week, Washington State trailed Arizona State 14-0 and then 21-17 heading into the fourth quarter before out-scoring the Sun Devils 21-3.  Two weeks ago, Washington State lost 30-28 to Stanford after blowing a 22-13 lead late in the second half.  And three weeks ago, the Cougars won 45-42 at Arizona.  So that’s three straight emotional games that will catch-up to Washington State here, especially since they are playing on the road where their defense allows 37 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.

UCLA is back to their wining ways after three straight victories, including last week’s 41-0 blowout of Oregon State.  The Bruins dominated teams early when they opened the season with four consecutive wins, but back-to-back losses to Arizona State and Stanford made UCLA a forgotten commodity.  The Bruins’ offense is averaging 36.1 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that give up 29 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  UCLA will move the ball at will on a terrible Washington State defense, especially on the ground as the Cougars give up 215.7 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush on the road this season.  UCLA also has a good defense that is only allowing 24.6 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 30.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  UCLA is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bruins in this game on Saturday night. 

10* Play UCLA (-).

Kentucky comes into this game off four consecutive losses because of their defense.  We won a Best Bet selection on Georgia last week when they beat Kentucky 27-3; we also won against Kentucky the week before when Tennessee waxed them 52-21.  We’ll come right back and play against the Wildcats once again this week.  Kentucky has given up 151 points in their last four games to Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Georgia.  Kentucky’s defense is injury riddled; they are without their best defensive lineman and their secondary is in shambles.  Kentucky’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 21.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per play despite playing the likes of Louisiana Lafayette, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky.  Vanderbilt has an excellent defense that is only giving up 17.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  At home, the Commodores are only allowing 13.7 points per game on 4.3 yards per play.  

Vanderbilt’s offense only scored 7 points last week, but that was in Florida against the stout Gators defense.  The Commodores are taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game against Kentucky, and we expect Vanderbilt’s offense to break out in a major way.  The Commodores’ offense has poor seasonal numbers, but they’ve played strong defenses that are only allowing 24.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Vanderbilt has scored just 10 and 14 points at home in conference play, but those games came against Georgia and Missouri who have terrific defenses.  Kentucky has one of the worst defenses in the SEC, so the Commodores’ offense will have one of their best offensive games of the season.  Vanderbilt will be playing just their second home game since September 19th, so they will bring their best effort here.  Kentucky will be playing their third road game in four weeks, so this is a good scheduling spot for Vanderbilt.  We’ll lay the points with the Commodores in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VANDERBILT (-).

SMU has played terrible football this season; the Mustangs come into this game with a 1-8 record with their lone win coming over North Texas who is also 1-8 on the season.  SMU has simply been terrible on both sides of the ball this season.  The Mustangs’ offense is only averaging 26.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season.  Overall this season, SMU has faced a collection of defenses that allow 29.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Mustangs will face a Navy defense that only gives up 19 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  That’s 10.8 points per game less and 0.2 yards per play less than the defenses that SMU has faced this season.  If we only use Navy’s home numbers, the outcome is even more bleak for SMU.  The Midshipmen allow just 14.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play at home this season. 

Navy comes into this game with a 7-1 record, including a perfect 5-0 mark at home.  The Midshipmen have won three of their home games by 22 points or more with their average win coming by 22.6 points per game.  Navy is averaging 35.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 27.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Navy has faced the much tougher defensive opponents than SMU, and the Midshipmen have performed better.  On the road this season, SMU’s defense is giving up 47.7 points per game on a horrendous 7.6 yards per play.  The Mustangs allow 260 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush, and that plays right into Navy’s running game that averages 326.5 yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Midshipmen on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NAVY (-).

Minnesota is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game at Ohio State.  The Golden Gophers went into their home game against Michigan last week off a bye, so all of their effort and focus was on that game.  The team also played in honor of their head coach Jerry Kill who announced his resignation just days before due to health reasons.  Minnesota put everything they had into that game, and they should have won the game.  The Gophers led with 5 minutes to play before giving up the lead.  They still had a chance to win the game on the final play from the half yard line, but they couldn’t get the ball into the end zone.  Off such a defeat, we expect Minnesota to play this game with a hangover, and against a strong opponent like Ohio State, that spells major trouble.  The Gophers’ offense has underperformed this season, especially on the road where they are only averaging 21.3 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  Minnesota will face an Ohio State defense that gives up just 15.1 points per game on 4.4 yards per play.  The Buckeyes allow just 12.6 points per game at home on 4.2 yards per play, so Minnesota’s offense is definitely up against it in this game.

Ohio State comes into this game with a perfect 8-0 SU record.  The Buckeyes have won three of their home games by 26 points or more with their average home win coming by 24 points per game.  Ohio State is averaging 38.5 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 29.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Ohio State has a lot of motivation to win by margin, especially since quarterback Cardale Jones will be back under center after J.T. Barrett’s suspension.  Jones was replaced by Barrett for ineffectiveness, but his second chance comes here and head coach Urban Meyer expects a big game:  “I would imagine as a competitor and a guy who wants to play, that this is his shot to be the starting quarterback at Ohio State.  We’ll worry about next week, next week.”  Ohio State also has plenty of motivation for a blowout win since they fell to #3 in this week's College Football Playoff rankings.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Ohio State on Saturday night.

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Syracuse is a bad football team, and we cashed a Best Bet selection against them last week in their 45-21 loss at Florida State.  The Orange now come into this game off five consecutive losses after opening the season at 3-0 SU.  Syracuse has only played two teams that are superior to them during their last five games, and the Orange got dominated in both of those games.  They lost to LSU and Florida State by a combined score of 79-45 while getting out-yarded 1,000-584.  The Orangemen's  defense has been shredded on the road this season where they are allowing 44.7 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  Overall, Syracuse has allowed 6.0 yards per play and 8.2 yards per pass in all games this season (versus opponents that average just 5.5 yppl and 7.1 ypp).  This will be Syracuse’s fourth road game in five weeks, so we expect their defense to get torched once again today.

Louisville has played three of their last four games on the road, so a home game will definitely bring out their best effort today.  The Cardinals have also played three consecutive stout defensive teams; Louisville was only able to score 58 total points on Florida State, Boston College, and Wake Forest.  But now they are taking a major step-down in defensive class against Syracuse, and the Cardinals are playing at home where their offense has been much better this season.  Louisville is averaging 27.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play at home with a strong 8.1 yards per pass.  Louisville also has a terrific defense that is only allowing 17.7 points per game on 4.2 yards per play at home.  In all games this season, the Cardinals have permitted just 21.9 points per game and 4.7 yards per play (versus opponents that average 27.8 ppg and 5.5 yppl).  Louisville is the superior team on both sides of ball and in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this home game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play LOUISVILLE (-).

Kentucky comes into this game off three consecutive losses because of their defense.  We won a Best Bet selection on Tennessee last week when they waxed Kentucky 52-21, and we’ll come right back and play against the Wildcats again this week.  Kentucky has given up 124 points in their last three games to Auburn, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.  Kentucky’s defense is injury riddled; they are without their best defensive lineman and their secondary is in shambles.  Kentucky’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 24.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite playing the likes of Louisiana Lafayette, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky.  Georgia has an excellent defense that is only giving up 20.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  At home, the Bulldogs are only allowing 16.8 points per game on 4.3 yards per play.

Georgia’s offense only scored 3 points last week, but that was against a stout Florida defense.  The Bulldogs are now taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game against Kentucky, and we expect Georgia’s offense to break out in a major way.  The Bulldogs’ offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 34 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this year, and Georgia is averaging 29.4 points per game on 6.4 yards per play in all games this season (versus defenses that allow just 25.9 ppg and 5.6 yppl).  Georgia has a potent rushing attack that averages 213 yards per game at home while averaging a whopping 5.5 yards per rush.  They will now face a Kentucky rush defense that allows 199 yards per game on the ground on 5.7 yards per rush on the road this season.  Georgia is in a good bounce back spot for a big win, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play GEORGIA (-).

Mississippi State and Missouri both come into this game off a bye, but Missouri actually holds a slight scheduling edge.  The Tigers have played their last two games on the road, and their last home game was back on October 10th.  Mississippi State has played their last three games at home, and they haven’t played a road game since October 3rd.  The Bulldogs have never played in Columbia either, so they are not familiar with their surroundings.  Weekday games tend to favor the non-traveling team as well.  Mississippi State’s offense has been much worse on the road this season.  They are only averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play compared to 35.1 points per game on 6.8 yards per play overall.  The Bulldogs have played a terrible collection of defenses this season; those opponents are giving up 29.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  

Missouri has lost three straight games after opening the season with a 4-1 record.  The bye came at the perfect time for the Tigers as it has given them some time to regroup.  Missouri’s strength this season has been defense; they are giving up just 12.5 points per game on 4.0 yards per play.  At home, Missouri is allowing just 10 points per game on 4.0 yards per play.  Mississippi State’s offense is taking a major step-up in defensive class against Missouri in this game as the Tigers’ defense is allowing 17.1 points per game less and 2.0 yards per play less than the defenses the Bulldogs have faced this season.  Missouri is a very strong defensive home underdog, and since they are also in a good scheduling spot, we’ll take the points with the Tigers in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play MISSOURI (+).

Tennessee has played a brutal schedule this season.  The Vols have lost at Oklahoma, at Florida, versus Arkansas, and at Alabama.  Not many teams would survive that gauntlet, so we’re willing to forgive Tennessee for their poor 3-4 SU record, especially since those four losses have come by just a combined 17 points.  Tennessee’s offense only scored 14 points last week, but that was against the stout Alabama defense.  The Vols are taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game against Kentucky as the Wildcats have given up 99 points in their last three games.  Tennessee’s offense is averaging 33.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 26.1 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Tennessee has a potent rushing attack that averages 209 yards per game and they will now face a Kentucky rush defense that allows 173 yards per game on the ground.

Kentucky comes into this game off back-to-back losses because of their defense.  They gave up 30 points to Auburn, and 42 points last week to Mississippi State.  Kentucky’s defense is also injury riddled and they will be without their best defensive lineman while their secondary is in shambles.  Kentucky’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 24.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite playing the likes of Louisiana Lafayette, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky.  Tennessee has a solid defense that is giving up just 24.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus opponents that average 31.9 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Tennessee has played well all season despite their losing record, and since they are the superior team, we’ll lay the points with the Volunteers in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play TENNESSEE (-).

Rutgers comes into this game off a 49-7 blowout home loss to Ohio State last week.  The Scarlet Knights gave up 528 yards of total offense with 281 of those yards coming on the ground.  Rutgers allowed a whopping 5.7 yards per rush, and now they will face a Wisconsin team that will duplicate Ohio State’s success on the ground.  Rutgers’ offense has faced poor defenses that are allowing 30.5 points and 5.9 yards per play as a group.  The Scarlet Knights are taking a monumental step-up in class for this game as the Wisconsin defense only gives up 11.1 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  That’s 19.4 points per game less and 1.2 yards per play less than the defenses that Rutgers has faced this season.  If we only use Wisconsin’s home numbers, the outcome is even more bleak for Rutgers.  The Badgers allow just 4 points per game at home on 3.7 yards per play.

Wisconsin comes into this game with a 6-2 SU record, including a 4-1 mark at home.  The Badgers have won all four home games by 17 points or more with their average win coming by 32 points per game.  At home, Wisconsin is averaging 28.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 25.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Wisconsin has obviously faced the much tougher defensive opponents than Rutgers, and the Badgers have performed better.  On the road this season, the Rutgers’ defense is giving up 40 points per game on a horrendous 8.1 yards per play.  Overall, Rutgers has faced a weak schedule of offensive opponents that have averaged just average 27.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Badgers on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WISCONSIN (-).

Syracuse is a bad football team, and they are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game against Florida State.  The Orange come into this game off back-to-back close losses, including a wild 44-38 triple-overtime loss at Virginia.  Syracuse has been involved in close games in four of their last five games overall, and that is going to finally catch-up to them here.  Syracuse only played one team that is superior to them during that span, and that resulted in a 34-24 home loss to LSU.  That game was not really close as LSU out-yarded Syracuse 425-281.  The Orange defense has been shredded on the road this season.  Syracuse is allowing 44.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  This will be Syracuse’s third road game in four weeks, and in a terrible spot, we expect their defense to get torched in this game.

Florida State comes into this game off their first loss of the season.  We won a Best Bet selection on Georgia Tech after they beat the Seminoles 22-16 on a crazy blocked field goal touchdown return on the final play of the game.  But we thought Florida State would lose that game, so the loss is certainly excusable.  Florida State is a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season with their average win coming by 22 points per game.  The Seminoles are averaging 40.7 points per game on 7.5 yards per play at home, and those numbers match-up perfectly with the atrocious defensive road numbers for Syracuse listed above.  Florida State also has a terrific defense that is only allowing 16.1 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  Those strong numbers have come against offenses that average 26.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Florida State is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Seminoles in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Florida State is a perfect 6-0 SU on the season, but the Seminoles may be the most fortunate team in the country.  Florida State has escaped defeat in their last three games; they won at Wake Forest by only 8 points (24-16) as a 19-point road favorite, they only beat Miami Florida by 5 points (29-24), and last week FSU trailed Louisville in the third quarter before winning by a misleading 20 points (41-21).  Florida State will now take to the road where they have been unimpressive this season.  Against two inferior teams (Boston College and Wake Forest) that have putrid offenses, Florida State only won by a combined scores of 14-0 and 24-16.  The Seminoles are only averaging 19 points per game on 5.0 yards per play on the road this season.  This is a poor situational spot for Florida State to be laying points on the road, especially since they are off back-to-back home wins against teams perceived to be better than the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech comes into this game with just a 2-5 SU record after losing their last five games in a row.  The Yellow Jackets were favored in four of those five games, including at Notre Dame.  Now Georgia Tech is getting a full touchdown at home in this game which creates a lot of value, especially since my power ratings only make Florida State a 2-point favorite in this game.  The Yellow Jackets possess a potent rushing attack that averages 287 yards per game on 5.6 yards per rush.  Overall this season, Georgia Tech’s offense is averaging 37 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 28 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Georgia Tech is also playing with legitimate revenge after losing 37-35 to Florida State in the ACC championship game last season; they ran for 331 yards in that game.  We’ll take Georgia Tech plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Kansas State opened the season at 3-0, but that was mainly because of an easy schedule.  The Wildcats have gone 0-3 since, and that has coincided with stepping-up in class.  Kansas State battled Oklahoma State and TCU to the end, but they ended up coming up short in both games.  Those two games were high-scoring shootouts, and they were in a terrible spot for last week’s game against Oklahoma.  The Wildcats got embarrassed 55-0 at home in that game, and such a defeat often lingers, especially for a team that has mediocre talent at best.  Kansas State’s offense has underperformed this season despite playing a collection of weak defenses.  The Wildcats are only averaging 4.8 yards per play against opponents that allow 5.2 yards per play.  That’s a major problem, especially when your defense has given up 176 total points in the last four games.     

Texas comes into this game off a week of rest, so the Longhorns will be primed for a big effort.  This is also a game Texas has circled in red after getting shutout 23-0 at Kansas State last season.  The Longhorns hit rock bottom in that loss, and the embarrassing performance actually galvanized the team; Texas went on to win three straight games after facing the Wildcats.  Texas also comes into this game with confidence after beating Oklahoma in their last game, and this game has even more importance considering the Longhorns have lost their last two home games.  Texas has a power running game that is averaging 195 yards per game, and they will have a huge edge on the ground in this game considering Kansas State has allowed 474 rushing yards in their last two games.  Texas is in a terrific spot to get a big revenge win, so we’ll lay the points with the Longhorns in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play TEXAS (-).

Auburn comes into this game with a winning record at 4-2 SU, but getting those wins has not been easy.  The Tigers needed overtime to beat FCS Jacksonville State while getting out-yarded and losing the first down battle.  In fact, Auburn has been out-yarded in all four of their wins, and they’ve also lost the first down battle in every one of those games.  The Tigers are winning with smoke and mirrors, but they’ve been able to get away with it because of the weak opposition.  Auburn has been known for their explosive offense since head coach Gus Malzahn took over, but the offense has been non-existent this season.  The Tigers are only averaging 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Auburn will be facing an Arkansas defense that is taking a monumental step-down in offensive class in this game.  The Razorbacks are only giving up 23.2 points per game despite facing offenses that average 35.8 points per game.  Auburn averages 10.3 points per game less than the offenses Arkansas has been facing.

Arkansas is just 2-4 SU on the season, but they’ve played a brutal schedule.  The Razorbacks have played Toledo, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, at Tennessee and at Alabama; those teams are a combined 25-7 SU on the season.  Arkansas is now facing a much softer opponent in Auburn, and the Razorbacks come into this game fresh off their bye.  Arkansas will be playing their first home game since September 19th; that game was a loss.  The Razorbacks are also playing with revenge after getting smoked 45-21 at Auburn in their season opener last year.  Arkansas has a terrific running game that is averaging 177 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  They will have plenty of success on an Auburn defense that is allowing 198 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per rush.  Arkansas is in a good scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Razorbacks in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play ARKANSAS (-).

Northwestern opened the season with a perfect 5-0 record and a high ranking in the polls.  Since then, the Wildcats are 0-2 while losing those games by a combined score of 78-10.  It’s clear that Northwestern’s early record was phony and built on beating bad teams; their 16-6 win over Stanford certainly looks like a fluke now.  Northwestern’s first loss (38-0) came at Michigan, and that was excusable going into last week’s home game against Iowa.  But a 40-10 blowout loss on their home field is not excusable, and we expect that loss to linger.  Northwestern’s offense has been terrible all season; they only average 19.6 points per game on 4.4 yards per play.  Once they get down, it’s almost impossible for them to come back, and we expect that scenario to play out in this game against the Cornhuskers.        

Nebraska comes into this game with a 3-4 record, but the Cornhuskers could actually be 7-0 on the season.  Their four losses have come by a combined 11 points, and incredibly, all four losses have come on the final play of the game.  Nebraska won 48-25 in Minnesota last week, so they return home with momentum and confidence.  The Cornhuskers’ offense has been excellent this season, and they will control this game from the opening kick.  Nebraska is averaging 32.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 23.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Northwestern’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak group of offenses.  The Wildcats will face a Nebraska offense that is averaging 6.9 points per game more and 1.0 yards per play more than the offenses they have faced.  Nebraska is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Cornhuskers in this game on Saturday afternoon.    

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

California is a much improved team this season.  The Golden Bears come into this game with a 5-1 SU record with their lone loss coming at Utah who is 6-0 SU on the season.  A major reason for California’s success has been the play of their offense.  The Golden Bears have scored 24 points or more in every game this season while averaging 40.2 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  California has put those numbers up against a collection of defenses that allow 32.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  California’s defense has decent seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 26.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Golden Bears are taking a major step-up in offensive class against UCLA’s offense in this game.

UCLA comes into this game off back-to-back losses, so they will be primed for a big effort tonight.  The Bruins have a potent offense that is averaging 34.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  UCLA put those numbers up against a group of defenses that only allow 28.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  UCLA’s offense averages 8.1 points per game more than the offenses California has faced this season.  The Bruins’ defense is a mess right now because of injuries, and they also come into this game in terrible form.  UCLA has allowed a total of 124 points in their last three games, and since California has a terrific offense, the Bruins’ defense will be in for another long game.  Look for a high-scoring game between California and UCLA on Thursday night.

10* Play OVER the total (California/UCLA).

Louisiana Lafayette has gone 9-4 SU in four consecutive seasons, so they are the epitome of a consistent team.  The Ragin’ Cajuns come into this game at just 2-3, so this is a big game if they hope to continue their recent trend.  UL Lafayette is 19-5 SU in Sun Belt play over the last three years, and they are 7-1 in their last eight conference road games.  Their offense has been terrific in the five years under head coach Mark Hudspeth, and his system has proven to work against Sun Belt opponents.  They scored 49 points on 526 yards of total offense in their lone conference game so far this season.  Overall, UL Lafayette is averaging 30.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Ragin’ Cajuns racked up 55 points on 521 yards of offense on Arkansas State last season, and scoring points won’t be an issue in this game since the Red Wolves’ defense is allowing 32 points per game this season.

Arkansas State returns home off a 49-31 win at South Alabama last Tuesday night, but their win wasn’t as decisive as the final score indicates.  Arkansas State actually trailed 31-20 in the fourth quarter before scoring 29 points with two touchdowns coming on the defensive side of the ball.  The Red Wolves are now playing a much better team, and they cannot rely on their defense to generate points once again.  Arkansas State’s defense is poor as indicated above, and they are taking a big step-up in offensive class against UL Lafayette in this game.  The Red Wolves had a season wins total of 7, and the Ragin’ Cajuns had a season wins total of 8 yet UL Lafayette is getting a full touchdown in this game.  The Ragin’ Cajuns also had extra time to prepare for this game since they last played on October 10th.  We’ll take the points with UL Lafayette in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play UL LAFAYETTE (+).

Oregon is having a disappointing season to say the least; the Ducks come into this game at just 3-3 SU.  They also come in off a home loss to Washington State, so we can be assured of a good effort in this game tonight.  Oregon has played their two best games of the season when coming off a loss in their previous game; they beat Georgia State 61-28 and they won at Colorado 41-24 following losses.  The Ducks closed as a 5-point underdog at undefeated Michigan State, so the fact that Oregon is now a 3-point underdog at Washington makes very little sense.  My power ratings make Oregon a 1-point favorite in this game, so there is value with the Ducks, especially with them playing off a loss.  Overall, Oregon’s running game has been fantastic as always; they are averaging 319 yards per game on a whopping 6.3 yards per rush.  Oregon’s ability to run the ball will be the difference in this game.

Washington comes into this game off an upset win at USC; the Huskies were a 17-point underdog in that game.  But with the latest developments with the Trojans, that win may not hold much weight going forward.  The Huskies are in their second season under head coach Chris Petersen, and the overwhelming consensus was that they were in rebuilding mode.  Washington’s season wins total was only 4.5 games, so with a 3-2 SU record, the Huskies have overachieved greatly so far.  To compare, Oregon’s season wins total was 9.5 games which makes this pointspread inflated simply because of recent results.  In fact, Oregon was a 15-point road favorite in this game at the Golden Nugget when this line was originally released in June.  Washington’s defense has faced a weak slate of rushing offenses that only average 143 yards per game on 4.0 yards per rush.  The Huskies’ defense will face a stiff challenge against Oregon’s potent rushing attack that averages 304 yards per game more and 2.3 yards per rush more than the offenses Washington has faced.  Oregon is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll take the value and the points with the Ducks in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play OREGON (+).

Michigan State comes into this game with a perfect 6-0 SU record, but they also own an 0-6 record against the spread.  That is a major red flag, especially for a team ranked as high as Michigan State.  The Spartans have played an extremely easy schedule, and four of their six games have been at home.  Michigan State has played a terrible slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 30 points per game on 5.8 yards per play as a group.  The Spartans’ offense has only averaged 31.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play against those opponents.  Now they will be taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against Michigan in this game, and Michigan State’s offense projects to have one of their worst games of the season.  The Spartans have had issues on their offensive line, and with Michigan’s ability to control the line of scrimmage, Michigan State will have a difficult time moving the ball consistently in this game.

Michigan has been tremendous since losing their season opener at Utah.  The Wolverines have won five straight games by a combined score of 160-14.  Granted, they haven’t played much in terms of competition, but their defense has been absolutely tremendous in those games, including  three consecutive shutouts.  The Wolverines’ defense has held their six opponents to a total of 38 points this season.  Overall, Michigan is only allowing 6.3 points per game on 3.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 26.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Michigan State will face a defense that gives up 23.7 points per game less and 2.7 yards per play less than the opponents MSU has played this season.  On the surface, the line looks ridiculously high, but my power ratings actually make Michigan a solid 10-point favorite in this game.  This is Michigan’s biggest game of the season as they’ve lost to their rival the last two years by a combined score of 64-17.  It’s payback time, and since Michigan is the better team, we’ll lay the points with the Wolverines in this home game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MICHIGAN (-).

Louisiana Tech and Mississippi State both come into this game at 4-2 SU on the season, and their losses have come against good opponents.  Louisiana Tech lost to Western Kentucky and Kansas State while Mississippi State lost to LSU and Texas A&M.  The La Tech Bulldogs are used to playing close games, and in fact, five of their last six losses dating back to last season have come by 6 points or less with four of those losses coming by 3 points.  Head coach Skip Holtz has been a tremendous underdog coach going back to his South Florida days, so he’ll have his Bulldogs ready for this game.  Louisiana Tech has an explosive offense that is averaging 39.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  The Bulldogs are well-balanced as they are averaging 174 yards on the ground and 320 yards thru the air per game.  Louisiana Tech will be just the second potent offense that Mississippi State has faced all season; Texas A&M scored 30 points on 519 yards of offense on MSU.

Mississippi State also has a potent offense that averages 32.3 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  But the Bulldogs have played a terrible collection of defenses this season whose opponents are giving up 30.4 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Louisiana Tech’s defense is holding opponents to 26.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play, so Mississippi State is taking a step-up in defensive class in this game.  MSU will be facing a defense that gives up 4.2 points per game less and 0.8 yards per play less than the opponents they’ve faced this year, yet MSU is still laying close to two touchdowns.  There is not much that separates these two teams, and since my power ratings only make Mississippi State a 9-point favorite, we’ll take the points and value with Louisiana Tech in this early game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play LOUISIANA TECH (+).

Boise State is 5-1 on the season, but the Broncos should be a perfect 6-0.  They lost on a 4th and 7 Hail Mary touchdown pass at BYU in Week 2.  Since that defeat, Boise State has gone on a rampage, beating their opponents by a combined score of 204-24.  However, the Broncos played four terrible teams in those games, and their opponents all had one thing in common, a terrible defense.  In fact, Boise State has faced a collection of defenses this season that are allowing 34 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Broncos are taking a monumental step-up in defensive class in this game against Utah State, and they are doing so on the road.  This will be Boise State’s toughest game in over a month; they played BYU back on September 12th.   

Utah State has been terrific in their last two games; they’ve won by a combined score of 89-32.  Granted, they played two bad football teams, but those wins have them coming into this game with a lot of confidence and momentum.  The Aggies’ defense has been outstanding this season; they are holding opponents to just 19.2 points per game on 4.4 yards per play.  That’s 14.8 points per game less and 1.5 yards per play less than the defenses Boise State has faced this season.  Utah State is only allowing 102.4 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per rush.  Those numbers are significantly less than the defenses Boise State has faced.  The Broncos’ defensive opponents allow 215 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.  Utah State will bring their best effort in this game, and since they have the defense to control Boise State’s offense, we’ll take the points with the Aggies on Friday night.

10* Play UTAH STATE (+).

Arkansas State finally has the same coach (Blake Anderson) for a second season in a row; their three previous coaches were all one and done.  The Red Wolves have been a consistent team over the last three seasons despite the coaching carousel.  They are 27-17 over their last 44 games, so they’ve developed a winning tradition in Jonesboro.  With 15 returning starters, the Red Wolves were projected to win 7 games this season.  They come into this game at 2-3, but they’ve played USC, Missouri, and Toledo.  Their two wins have come against teams on their level, and they won those games by a combined score of 119-42.  Arkansas State was also playing without their quarterback Terrance Knighten in the last three games, but he is expected to return for this game.  The Red Wolves have averaged 30.4 points per game with their backup freshman quarterback, and they’ll be even better with Knighten under center.   

South Alabama was projected to be a poor team this season.  The Jaguars season wins total was set at 3, and with an early 3-2 record, they’ve overachieved thus far.  South Alabama has played an extremely weak schedule so far, and their blowout losses at Nebraska and to North Carolina State look worse now considering how those two teams have played since.  Despite a winning record, South Alabama has been out-played on both sides of the ball.  The Jaguars are only averaging 22.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Their defense has given up 32.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  South Alabama is a phony team, and they are playing one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt conference.  We’ll back Arkansas State in this game on Tuesday night.      

9* Play ARKANSAS STATE (-).

California and Utah both come into this game with perfect records, but of the two, Utah has clearly played the much tougher schedule.  California is 5-0 SU on the season, but the Golden Bears have played an extremely weak slate of opponents, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  California’s offense is averaging 43.4 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  However, those numbers have come against a collection of defenses that are giving up 35.2 points per game on 5.9 points per game.  California is taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against Utah in this game.  The Utes are holding opponents to just 18.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  California will now be playing their third road game over the past four weeks while also playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.

The Utes are a perfect 4-0 SU on the season, and they’ve been extremely impressive.  Utah own home wins over Michigan and Utah State, and an eye-opening 62-20 road win at Oregon.  The Utes comes into this game off their bye, so they will be fresh and ready to roll.  That’s a big scheduling edge over California considering what we mentioned above.  Utah is averaging 38.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 26.4 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Utah’s defense has been tremendous this season as mentioned above; they are allowing 16.5 points per game less than the defenses California has faced this season.  California is not nearly as good as their 5-0 SU record indicates, so we’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play UTAH (-).

Florida comes into this game with a perfect 5-0 record, and the Gators are the flavor of the week in the media.  Florida won 38-10 as 6.5-point home underdogs to Mississippi last Saturday, but now they are laying points on the road.  That’s way too much of an overreaction to last week’s results.  The Gators have played in three consecutive tough conference games.  They won 14-9 at Kentucky and then they came back from a 27-14 deficit with just over four minutes to play to beat Tennessee 28-27 the following week.  Those two games came before last week’s upset win over Mississippi; the Gators are ripe for a letdown this week.  Florida is an extremely young team that is led by freshman, including quarterback Will Grier.  The Gators’ offense has faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 28.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play as a group.  Florida is taking a monumental step-up in defensive class in this game, and we do not expect the Gators’ offense to have much success.   

Missouri has been a terrific team over the last couple of seasons.  The Tigers are 27-6 in their last 33 games, including 4-1 so far in 2015.  Missouri’s strength over the last few years has been on the defensive side of the ball; they’ve allowed 23.5 points per game or less in four of the last five seasons.  The Tigers’ defense has been phenomenal this season; they are giving up just 12 points per game on 373 total yards per game.  Missouri is holding their opponents to just 4.0 yards per play, so teams have had an extremely difficult time moving the football consistently on the Tigers.  Missouri’s defense allows 16.9 points per game less and 1.5 yards per play than the defenses Florida has faced this season.  Missouri has dominated this series over the last two seasons, winning by a combined score of 78-30.  With Florida overvalued and in a terrible scheduling and situational spot, we’ll back the Tigers in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

Georgia Tech comes into this game with a 2-3 record after losing their last three games.  The Yellow Jackets were favored in all three of those games, including at Notre Dame.  Now they will face a Clemson team that just beat Notre Dame at home as 3-point favorites.  However, Georgia Tech is getting a full touchdown in this game which creates a lot of value if we compare the lines from the common opponent.  The Yellow Jackets possess a potent rushing attack that averages 311.8 yards per game on a whopping 5.7 yards per rush.  Overall this season, Georgia Tech’s offense is averaging 41.4 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 30.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Georgia Tech’s defense has also played well despite the losing record.  The Yellow Jackets are giving up 23.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. 

Clemson is off their big spotlight home win over Notre Dame last week, so this is not a good scheduling spot at all.  This is also a poor situational spot for Clemson as they had a bye prior to their game last week, and now they have to face Georgia Tech’s triple option with just one week to prepare.  Clemson lost 28-6 to Georgia Tech last season after giving 251 yards on the ground.  Clemson had a veteran defense with experience against the triple-option last season, and they still couldn’t stop it.  The Tigers are an extremely talented team, but they are young and inexperienced with only 3 returning starters on defense this season.  Clemson is 4-0 this season, but the Tigers are 0-2 against the spread versus Louisville and Notre Dame.  Clemson is simply overvalued in this game because of recent results, and since they are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot, we’ll take the points with the Yellow Jackets on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Washington and USC both come into this game off a bye, but they went into their off week from opposite directions.  Washington lost 30-24 at home to California while USC won 42-14 at Arizona State.  The Huskies are in their second season under former Boise State head coach Chris Petersen, so they are still in rebuilding mode.  Washington comes into this game with a 2-2 record, but they’ve played just one road game so far this season.  The Huskies were terrible in that road game as they scored just 13 points while gaining 179 yards of total offense in their loss at Boise State.  Overall, Washington has faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 26.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play as a group.  The Huskies are are taking a monumental step-up in defensive class in this game as USC gives up just 17.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play. 

USC bounced back strong in their last game after getting upset at home by Stanford in their previous game.  The Trojans are 3-1 on the season with their three wins coming by 49, 50, and 28 points.  USC has been dominant on both sides of the ball; they are averaging 46.7 points per game on a whopping 8.1 yards per play.  Washington’s defense has faced a weak slate of opposing offenses that are only averaging 25.8 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  As mentioned above, USC’s defense has been stout, so they will shutdown the pedestrian offense of Washington in this game.  Trojans’ signal caller Cody Kessler has been the best quarterback in the country this season; he is completing 73% (89-122) of his passes on 10.6 yards per pass attempt with an incredible 15/1 touchdown/interception ratio.  USC is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Thursday night. 

9* Play USC (-).

Hawaii comes into this game with a 2-2 record with both of their wins coming at home.  The Rainbow Warriors have shown no ability to play well on the road this season as they’ve lost their two away games by a combined score of 66-0.  That trend of playing poorly on the road has been a constant in recent seasons; they’ve lost by margins of 38, 28, 39, 47, 38, 35 in prior away games.  Hawaii will be playing their second consecutive game on the mainland, and this will also be their third road game in the last four weeks.  The Rainbow Warriors have no chance to match points with the potent Boise State offense, especially since Hawaii is only averaging 18.7 points per game on 296.7 yards of offense per game.  Overall, Hawaii is only averaging 4.9 yards per play this season, so they will have difficulty moving the ball consistently in this game.  

Boise State is 3-1 on the season, and they actually should be a perfect 4-0.  The Broncos lost on a Hail Mary touchdown pass to BYU in their second game of the season.  Boise State has won their last two games by a combined score of 108-14, and they will notch their third consecutive blowout win in this game.  Boise State is averaging 37 points per game on 435.7 yards of offense per game.  Overall, the Broncos are averaging 5.7 yards per play, so they will move the ball at will on a weak Hawaii defense that got steamrolled in both of their road games this season.  Boise State’s defense has been tremendous this season; they are holding opponents to just 15.5 points per game on 282.7 yards of offense per game.  The Broncos allow just 4.2 yards per play on defense, and that has come against better offenses than Hawaii.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Saturday night.

10* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Colorado State comes into this game with a 2-2 record, but the rest of the Rams’ season doesn’t project to be too good.  The Rams are a rebuilding football team with a new head coach in Mike Bobo who was the offensive coordinator at Georgia for the last eight years.  While Bobo inherited 15 total returning starters, the Rams lost their starting quarterback and running back plus their top two tacklers from last year’s 10-3 team.  The Rams have serious issues at quarterback; Nick Stevens has completed just 59.6% of his passes with a 9/4 touchdown/interception ratio.  Bobo has Stevens starting simply because the Rams don’t have much behind him.  Colorado State is in a bad situational spot for this game as they come into this game off three consecutive emotional games.  They lost back-to-back overtime games to Minnesota and Colorado, and then last week they won 33-31 at UTSA.  This will also be their third straight game away from home while facing the best defense they’ve seen so far this season.   

Utah State comes into this game off a bye, so they’ve had an extra week to prepare.  That’s a good thing since they will be starting sophomore quarterback Kent Myers for the first time.  But the team and head coach Matt Wells have faith in Myers: “His teammates are very, very confident in him,” Wells said.  “He brings athleticism and he throws the ball well whether it’s down the field, in the pocket or on the move. I like where he’s at.”  Utah State will rely on their rushing game, and they will have success against a Colorado State defense that is allowing 166.7 rushing yards per game this season.  The Aggies’ defense will be the most dominating unit on the field.  Colorado State needs to run the ball to have success, but Utah State only gives up 107 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per rush.  Utah State holds a significant edge at the line of scrimmage, and since they come into this game in a terrific scheduling spot, we’ll lay the points with the Aggies on Saturday night.

9* Play UTAH STATE (-).

Iowa comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 record, but the Hawkeyes have faced a pretty easy schedule so far.  Iowa owns wins over FCS Illinois State, rival Iowa State 31-17, Pittsburgh, and a terrible North Texas team.  Iowa was challenged in just one game, and that came in their 27-24 home win over Pittsburgh.  We won a Best Bet selection against Iowa in that game as the matchup was a bad one for the Hawkeyes.  The same applies in this game against Wisconsin, so we’ll play against Iowa once again.  Iowa and Wisconsin are built in a similar way as they both like to run the ball while playing physical defense.  But the Badgers simply do it better.  Iowa has faced four poor defenses that are allowing 30.3 points and 178.3 rushing yards per game as a group.  Now the Hawkeyes will be facing a Wisconsin defense that is only giving up 9.5 points per game and 82.7 rushing yards per game.  That’s 20.8 points per game less, and 95.6 rushing yards per game less than the defenses that Iowa has faced this season.  Iowa is taking a major step-up in class against the Badgers.  

Wisconsin comes into this game with a 3-1 record; their lone loss came against Alabama in their season opener.  The Badgers have won their last three games by a combined score of 114-3; they haven’t just been winning, they’ve been dominating.  Wisconsin has faced much tougher defensive opponents than Iowa, and the Badgers have performed better.  Wisconsin is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus opponents that only give up 5.1 yards per play.  The Badgers will have success moving the ball on an Iowa defense that has faced four terrible offensive teams that average just 21.6 points per game on 5.0 yards per play combined.  Overall, Wisconsin is averaging 32.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  My power ratings make Wisconsin a 12-point favorite in this game, so there’s tremendous value in laying less than a touchdown with the Badgers on Saturday afternoon.            

9* Play WISCONSIN (-).

Missouri has been a terrific team over the last couple of seasons.  The Tigers are 26-5 in their last 31 games, including a perfect 3-0 so far in 2015.  Missouri’s strength over the last few years has been on the defensive side of the ball; they’ve allowed 23.5 points per game or less in four of the last five seasons.  The Tigers’ defense has been phenomenal this season; they are giving up just 9.7 points per game on 217 total yards per game.  Missouri is holding their opponents to just 3.3 yards per play, so teams have had an extremely difficult time moving the football consistently on the Tigers.  Granted, their schedule has been weak thus far, but Missouri’s history of fielding a strong defense is an indication that the first three games are not a fluke.  Missouri’s offense has struggled a bit this season, but that’s because star running back Russell Hansbrough has been out with injury.  However, reports indicate he will play in this game, and his presence alone will boost Missouri’s offensive production, especially since Kentucky allows 187.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.    

Kentucky comes into this game with a 2-1 record with their loss coming last week at home to Florida.  The Wildcats were in a good spot for that game after winning at South Carolina as 7-point road underdogs the week before.  But Kentucky played terrible football as they only had 3 points thru three quarters, and overall, they only had 241 yards of offense for the entire game.  The Wildcats’ offense has underperformed all season, and in fact, Kentucky is only averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 5.8 yards per play this season.  And it’s not like they’ve played a collection of strong defensive opponents.  As a group, Kentucky has faced defenses that are giving up 24.7 points per game.  They are taking a major step-up in class in this game against Missouri since the Tigers’ defense allows 15 points per game less than the teams Kentucky has been facing.  Missouri has dominated this series over the last three seasons, winning by a combined score of 101-37, and there’s nothing that indicates this game will be any different.  My power ratings actually make Missouri a 2.5-point favorite in this game, and since they are the better team with the better defense, we’ll back the Tigers in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

This game will be played on a neutral field, so neither team has the home field advantage.  The pointspread on this game has been severely inflated after the recent results over the last couple of weeks.  Back in June, the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas posted Arkansas as 6-point favorites over Texas A&M.  And after just three games, Texas A&M is now a 7-point favorite.  That’s a 13-point adjustment, and it’s simply way too much.  My raw power ratings before the season made Arkansas a 2-point favorite, and even after adjusting for in-season play, my power ratings only make Texas A&M a 1.5-point favorite.  Texas A&M comes into this game with a 3-0 record, but the Aggies have played two inferior opponents and Arizona State.  Texas A&M has played three terrible defensive teams that are giving up an average of 31.4 points and 427.9 yards per game as a group.  The Aggies are taking a big step-up in defensive class for this game as Arkansas is only allowing 21.3 points and 336 yards of offense per game this season.

Arkansas is just 1-2 on the season, and the Razorbacks come into this game off back-to-back home losses.  However, Arkansas could easily be 3-0 had the football bounced their way.  In their two losses, the Razorbacks’ offense has put up 939 yards of total offense.  Arkansas controlled the football in those two games; they held a 74:38-45:22 time of possession edge.  The Razorbacks do that by having a fantastic running game that is averaging 171 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  Arkansas’ defense has also been terrific this season as they are holding opponents to 13.7 points per game less than their seasonal average.  The Razorbacks’ opponents are averaging 35 points per game on offense as a group while Arkansas is only allowing 21.3 points per game as noted above.  The line on this game is super inflated, and we expect a close game throughout.  We’ll take the points with the Razorbacks in a game they have a very good shot at winning outright.

10* Play ARKANSAS (+).

BYU is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Michigan on Saturday afternoon.  The Cougars come into this game with a 2-1 record, but they could very well be 0-3 on the season.  BYU opened with back-to-back miraculous wins; they won at Nebraska and they beat Boise State at home on Hail Mary passes.  Last week, they played at UCLA, and the Cougars led for the majority of that game.  BYU blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead after giving up the game-winning touchdown to UCLA with just over 3 minutes to play in the game.  The Cougars’ 24-23 loss will be extremely difficult to overcome, especially after the pair of emotional games they won to begin the season.  BYU must now travel across the country and play an early game after playing back-to-back late games on the opposite coast.  The Cougars will likely be running on empty as this game goes on. 

Michigan has bounced back strongly after opening the season with a 24-17 loss at Utah.  The Wolverines have won their two home games by a combined score of 63-14, so they come into this game full of confidence.  Michigan dominated the line of scrimmage in their two wins, and their defense played outstanding as well.  The Wolverines ran for a total of 479 yards while gaining a whopping 5.5 yards per rush.  BYU’s rush defense was gouged by UCLA last week as the Bruins ran for 296 yards while averaging an incredible 7.8 yards per rush.  Michigan will have similar success in this game, especially since the Cougars’ defense has given up 24 points or more in all three games this season.  The Wolverines’ defense has held their three opponents to a total of 38 points this season.  In their last two games, Michigan has held their opponents to a total of 373 yards of offense.  Overall this season, the Wolverines’ defense is only allowing 3.8 yards per play.  This is simply a terrible spot for BYU, and with Michigan playing excellent football right now, we’ll lay the points with the Wolverines on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MICHIGAN (-).

Pittsburgh comes into this game with a perfect 2-0 record, but the team is getting little respect as of right now.  The Panthers were 6.5-point home favorites over Iowa last season, but they lost that game 24-20 despite out-yarding the Hawkeyes 435-311.  Now Pittsburgh will play in Iowa in the return game, and they are getting +5.5 which equates to a 12-point line move.  That’s way too much considering the two teams are quite similar to last year.  Pittsburgh is in their first year under new head coach Pat Narduzzi who was the Michigan State defensive coordinator for the past eight seasons.  Narduzzi created one of the best defenses in the country in East Lansing, and he’s very familiar with Big 10 member Iowa.  Narduzzi’s defenses have held the Hawkeyes to just 14, 19, and 21 points the last three meetings.  Pittsburgh shut down Akron last week, holding them to just 7 points, 8 first downs, and 110 total yards , so they are quite capable of holding Iowa in check in this game.

Iowa also comes into this game with a 2-0 record; the Hawkeyes beat FCS Illinois State 31-14 and rival Iowa State 31-17.  Iowa hasn’t been challenged yet, but they will be severely tested on both sides of the ball in this game against Pittsburgh.  The Hawkeyes and Panthers are built in a similar way as they both like to run the ball while playing physical defense.  When teams that fit that profile play, we often see a low-scoring defensive scrum with points at a minimum.  That was exactly the case in last year’s meeting that only had a total of 44 points scored.  The posted total on this game is currently 47, so we’re expected to see a similar outcome to last year’s game in Pittsburgh.  These two teams are even across the board, so we’ll take the points in a game that comes right down to the wire.       

9* Play PITTSBURGH (+).

This rivalry game is one that is played early in the season, and that gives Colorado a definite advantage over Colorado State for this meeting.  The Rams are a rebuilding football team while Colorado is a team on the rise.  The Rams have a new head coach in Mike Bobo who was the offensive coordinator at Georgia for the last eight years.  While Bobo inherited 15 total returning starters, the Rams lost their starting quarterback and running back plus their top two tacklers from last year’s 10-3 team.  The Rams have serious issues at quarterback as Nick Stevens completed just 42.1% (8-of-19) of his passes last week for 51 yards with two interceptions; he was benched during the game.  Bobo said Stevens will start this game simply because the Rams don’t have much behind him.  Colorado State comes into this game off a tough 23-20 home loss in overtime to Minnesota last week, and that game puts them in a negative situation for this game.

Colorado is trending up, and head coach Mike MacIntyre is in his third year in Boulder.  The Buffaloes will have their best season under MacIntyre as they returned 16 total starters.  Colorado comes into this game at 1-1 on the season; they lost 28-20 at Hawaii as 7-point favorites and they crushed Massachusetts 48-14 last week.  The Buffaloes ran for 390 yards on 6.6 yards per rush in that game, and that spells trouble for Colorado State who allowed 180 rushing yards at home to Minnesota last week.  Colorado was a 2.5-point favorite over Colorado State last season, but they lost 31-17.  The Rams were a significantly better team last season while Colorado only won 2 games all year; Colorado State only lost 3 games.  That’s not the case this season as Colorado will have a better record at season’s end, but they are only laying 0.5 points more.  This game is ultra important for Colorado’s program, and since they are the better team, we’ll lay the points with the Buffaloes on Saturday night.

10* Play COLORADO (-).

Auburn comes into this game at 2-0 SU, but they are 0-2 ATS.  That is a major red flag considering Auburn’s two opponents thus far, Louisville and Jacksonville State, are a combined 1-4 on the season.  Auburn played a neutral site game against Louisville, and at home versus Jacksonville State; they were not impressive in either game.  The Tigers could have lost both of those games; they only beat Louisville 31-24 and they needed overtime to beat FCS Jacksonville State 27-20.  Now Auburn must play a true road game for the first time this season with a quarterback that has been awful in the first two games.  Jeremy Johnson has completed just 60.4% (32-53) of his passes for 373 yards with a 3/5 touchdown/interception ratio.  Johnson will be making his first collegiate true road start, and he will be facing a much better defense than what he has seen in the first two games.  LSU is an extremely difficult place to play, especially for a relatively young and inexperienced quarterback like Johnson.

LSU has had this game circled after getting embarrassed 41-7 at Auburn last season.  We remember that game well as we won a Best Bet selection on Auburn as 7.5-point favorites.  That game set-up perfectly for Auburn, but this game is just the opposite, as LSU is now the team in a good situational spot.  The Tigers won 21-19 at Mississippi State in their season opener last week.  The 2-point win makes the game look closer than it actually was; LSU led 21-6 heading into the fourth quarter.  LSU dominated that game at the line of scrimmage as they ran for 266 yards on 5.7 yards per rush while holding Mississippi State to just 43 yards on the ground while limiting them to just 1.7 yards per rush.  If LSU repeats that type of domination in this game, Auburn has zero chance of staying competitive.  LSU returned a loaded team this season, and the Tigers are flying well under the national radar.  With this game being their only SEC home game until October 17th, we expect a supreme effort by LSU.  We’ll lay the points with LSU in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play LSU (-).

Clemson has been a terrific team over the last four seasons.  The Tigers won 10 games or more in all four years, and they are expected to finish this season with a similar record.  While the Tigers are an extremely talented team, they are young and inexperienced, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Clemson only returned 3 starters on defense this season from last year’s unit that gave up just 16.7 points and 261 yards per game.  The Tigers are 2-0 coming into this game after beating up on Wofford and Appalachian State by a combined score of 90-20.  Both of those teams are inferior opponents, and Clemson played both games at home, so those results mean absolutely nothing.  Tonight’s game at Louisville is their first test of the season, and Clemson is simply overvalued in this game because of recent results.

Louisville comes into this game with an 0-2 record after losing to Auburn and Houston.  Both of those opponents are good teams, and Louisville actually could have won both games if the football bounced a different way.  The Cardinals have obviously played the much tougher competition so far this season, and they are already playing at mid-season game speed.  Clemson is not after playing a pair of weaklings, so Louisville has a significant edge for this game.  In last year’s meeting at Clemson, the Tigers only won 23-17 as 9.5-point home favorites.  Clemson was a better team last season, and now they are laying just 3.5 points less on the road against Louisville.  The Cardinals went 5-1 at home last season in head coach Bobby Petrino’s first season back; their only loss was to Florida State.  Louisville is severely undervalued in this game, so we’ll take the points with the Cardinals on Thursday night. 

10* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

UCLA was ultra-impressive in their 34-16 home win over Virginia last week.  While the final winning margin of 18 points doesn’t look so good, the Bruins dominated that game from start to finish.  UCLA out-yarded Virginia 503-336 despite having the ball for 9 minutes less.  The most impressive part of that game was how UCLA controlled the line of scrimmage against one of the better defensive lines in the country.  The Bruins tallied 152 yards on the ground while averaging 4.5 yards per rush against a Virginia defense that only gave up 121 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per rush last season.  The ability to run the ball opened up the passing game for true freshman quarterback Josh Rosen who completed 80% (28-35) of his passes for 351 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  While it’s true Rosen will be making his first collegiate road start, the game will come at UNLV who has a terrible team and absolutely no home field edge whatsoever.

UNLV comes into this game off a close 38-30 loss at Northern Illinois in their season opener.  The Rebels actually trailed that game by 15 points with 5 minutes left to play, and they gave up 545 yards of total offense.  That was against a mediocre team from the MAC, and now they are taking a monumental step-up in class against UCLA in this game.  UNLV is in serious rebuilding mode with new head coach Tony Sanchez and just 10 returning starters this season.  The Rebels had no less than 13 returning starters in each of the last three seasons, and they went just 11-28 over that span.  UNLV is void of major talent right now, and they are totally out-classed in this game versus UCLA.  The Rebels faced Arizona from the Pac 12 twice in the last two years, and they lost both games by the exact same final score of 58-13.  UCLA is significantly better this season than those two Arizona teams, and UNLV is significantly worse than the teams they fielded in those games.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with UCLA on Saturday night.

10* Play UCLA (-).

Temple comes into this game off a solid 27-10 home win over Penn State last week.  The Owls were 7-point home underdogs in that game, and there was nothing fluky about their win.  Temple out-yarded Penn State 317-179 while controlling the ball for 36 minutes.  The Owls have an exceptional defensive team that returned 10 starters from last season when they held opponents to just 17.5 on 347 yards per game.  Overall, Temple returned 19 players from last year’s 6-6 team.  The Owls are the most experienced team in the AAC, and they are in their third season under head coach Matt Rhule.  Temple plays ball control offense, but quarterback PJ Walker has a lot of mobility which will be a key factor in this game.  Cincinnati’s defensive weakness is on the line of scrimmage, so Temple’s ability to run the ball with their backs and quarterback gives them a big matchup edge in this game.    

Cincinnati waxed Alabama A&M 52-10 last week, but that win means absolutely nothing.  The Bearcats will be stepping way up in class for this game, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Cincinnati does have a fantastic offense led by quarterback Gunner Kiel, but that unit struggled mightily against Temple’s defense last season.  The Bearcats only scored 14 points on 255 yards of total offense.  Cincinnati only ran the ball for 81 yards on 33 carries while averaging just 2.5 yards per rush.  As mentioned above, the Cincinnati defense is the liability in this game, especially their defensive line.  The Bearcats lost four of their top five tacklers from last year’s unit, so Temple will have a huge edge in the trenches.  Temple and Cincinnati are the top two teams in the AAC, and we expect a close game throughout just like last season.  We’ll take the points with the Owls in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play TEMPLE (+).