Rating: 3 Units

Blue Jays’ head coach Greg McDermott is only 2-6 SUATS against foes off a win of greater than 4 points in this tourney. Interestingly, double digit favorites in the Sweet 16, favored by the most points in this round, are 18-3 SU, but have covered in only 7 of the 21 contests (7-12-2 ATS), including 0-7 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win. In addition, double-digit dogs in Sweet 16 games are 15-6 ATS since 1999, including 11-1 ATS when coming off a SU underdog win (10-0 ATS versus sub .880 foes). In fact, teams off a pair of upset wins in the first two rounds are 14-5 ATS in Sweet 16 rounds dating back to 2011, including 7-0 ATS when taking 8 or more points today. 

Rating: 2 Units

Houston, it should be noted they struggled mightily against quality opposition this season – read: .750 or greater foes – going just 1-7 ATS. Ironically, each of Sampson’s last five losses in The Big Dance have been against foes of a similar ilk (Villanova last season). Miami is undersized, but the Hurricanes have elite guards and a dynamic small-ball big man in Norchad Omier. He's among a group of four Miami players averaging 13 or more points per game. A three-guard attack, led by ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, could be a handful, particularly if Houlton’s star G Marcus Sasser is not 100% back from his groin injury

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

What has been overlooked this season, is Bama was the No. 20 in the AP preseason poll. Safe to say they have been major overachievers to the point they were awarded the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s tournament. And starting today they own the easiest path to the Final Four with only No. 5, 6 and perhaps 15 seeds in their path. They also bring the best Rebound Margin, and second-best Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Scoring Margins of all teams still remaining in this tournament. San Diego State enters with the second worst Offensive Field Goal Percentage (uh oh). The Aztecs are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2014, and third time overall. Seven players average at least 20.0 minutes per game this season, but only one player averages double-digits in scoring. Ironically. SDSU was No. 19 in the AP preseason Top 25, ahead of Alabama. With MWC teams a shivery 3-31-1 ATS in their last 35 outright losses in this tourney, you know exactly what to do.

Rating: 2 Units

CUSA programs are 0-4 SU in this round of the tournament, losing by an average margin of more than more than 10 PPG. Denting Tennessee’s stifling defense is priority one for the Owls if they hope to advance. The Volunteers rank 3rd in the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (37.2) while allowing opponents to shoot just 26.4% from outside the arc, the lowest mark in college basketball. You can poke holes all you want at coach Barnes and his tawdry 20-31 ATS record in this tournament but he’s only the second coach in school history to make multiple Sweet 16s. In the end the pedigree wins out, as it almost always does at this stage. Lay the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Izzo enters on a 1-6 SUATS run of late against Big 12 opponents, as well as 0-3 SUATS in this tournament against No. 3 or higher seeds when coming off a SU underdog win when his troops sport a sub .666 win percentage. The only bad news for Kansas State? No. 3 seeds in the Sweet 16 round are just 3-14 ATS when taking on .714 or fewer opponents. While Izzo stands 16-12 SU in this event versus higher seeded opposition, he’s just 2-4 SUATS in those same games when his troops own a .676 or less win percentage and are facing No. 3 or greater seeds. The bottom line to us is we love higher seeded dogs like KSU, and higher seeded dogs in this round are 11-6 ATS since 1990, including 8-2 SUATS when taking 2 or fewer points. 

Rating: 2 Units

If previous performances are any indication, UAB should kill the Commodores in rebounding, particularly offensively which will lead to ample second-chance scoring opportunities. It nearly sank Vanderbilt against Michigan, and I think it will this time. The Blazers have a tougher defense than the Commodores and an offense that can keep up with them. Even on the road, I'm expecting UAB to win, and with the spread only at one point, the money line is the best option.

Rating: 2 Units

This will be a tough matchup for the Ducks, who could be without their top three players. Although it's tough to back a team in that situation, Oregon has been extremely impressive shorthanded through their first NIT wins. As impressive as the Ducks have been, I can see so many different scenarios playing out where the Badgers either win or keep this game within five points. Wisconsin has had some extremely close losses this season, including falling to Kansas by only one point earlier this season. Also, five of the most recent six losses for Wisconsin have either come in overtime or been decided by two points or less during regulation. Oregon is one of those teams that can make you look bad either way as a sports bettor. When the Ducks are on, they are very good, but they also have been inconsistent throughout the season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spartans have won five of their last six games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they played better in recent games, scoring more than 69 points per game in their last three games. Their rebounding was great during that span and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass, grabbing 12 offensive rebounds per game, so expect them to get a lot of second-chance scoring opportunities., They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Highlanders a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Highlanders usually play well defensively, but they weren’t as efficient in recent games, giving up at least 70 points in two of their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Spartans in this game. The Highlanders have lost four of their last seven games. They have struggled offensively on the road, scoring less than 70 points per game. They’ve struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. Their ball movement isn’t very good and they don’t rebound the ball as well as the Spartans, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Spartans. The Spartans are very good defensively and they played better in recent games, keeping their last three opponents under 65 points per game, so don’t expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Highlanders in this game. Go with San Jose State to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Looking at these teams, the greatest difference between them is on offense. They both play at a high tempo, rebounded well against their conference competition, and know how to stifle opposing offenses. However, Indiana State is typically efficient, hitting almost half of their shots and taking advantage of free throws. Eastern Kentucky is not, only hitting 43.5% of their field goals and missing nearly 35% of their free throws. Expect Indiana State's offense to make the difference in this one when they beat the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

TCU's offense was not their strength this season and had a few lulls on Friday, but overall their performance was impressive considering Arizona State's defense wreaked havoc on a lot of teams this season. That the Horned Frogs hit open threes and free throws could make them very dangerous going forward. Of course, Gonzaga's offense on Grand Canyon, but Grand Canyon's defense was barely 200th in adjusted efficiency this season. TCU's is much tougher at 23rd. Gonzaga's defense isn't great, and Timme's size could pose problems inside for TCU's offense, but I think if they play like Friday the Horned Frogs will take this game. Taking the points is safer though, so I'm going to roll with the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Pittsburgh is allowing an average of just 50.0 points per game in its first two games of the NCAA tournament as the Panthers' defense has tightened. Pittsburgh held Iowa State to 23% shooting overall and 10% shooting from long range. Xavier is a strong shooting team, hitting 50% of its field goal attempts during a regular season, but against first-round opponent, Kennesaw State shot only 17% from behind the three-point line and cannot afford to shoot poorly against the Panthers. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 23 of its last 30 and in four of the last five against a team with a winning percentage above 600. Xavier struggled down the stretch to cover the spread, failing to cover the spread in four of its last five. In intangibles, Xavier must play without Zach Freemantle, who before being injured was the second-leading scorer and leading rebounder for the Musketeers. Freemantle was also one of the court leaders.

Rating: 2 Units

Maryland survived a slow start to get past West Virginia but an opening 10 minutes like they had Thursday here could put them in a hole that they would be unable to dig out of against the Crimson Tide. The Terrapins played some stout defense against West Virginia to get through but they were helped by getting the Mountaineers in foul trouble, opening up the interior for easy buckets. Alabama hung 96 on the board with their best player going scoreless while playing just 19 minutes. Granted, Maryland is better defensively than Texas A&M-Corpus Christi but the Crimson Tide have plenty of depth, as evidenced in Thursday’s win. It also helps that they are playing in their home state. Look for that depth to make the difference as Alabama prevails to advance to the Sweet 16.

Rating: 2 Units

I can't turn away from a Penn State team that has thrived in close games down the stretch. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and have gone 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as the underdog. In addition, Penn State has won six of its last seven games against tournament teams and covered the spread in each game. Further, the veteran Penn State team is not easily rattled and performs well above average in neutral site games. Penn State is 9-1 ATS in its last ten neutral site games. I expect Pickett to protect the basketball and create opportunities for his teammates throughout the game. Texas, which likes to move quickly, will be forced to adjust to Penn State's methodical pace of play and I expect this game to be a one-possession contest heading into the final two minutes. With that in mind, points are critical and I will happily take the 5.5 on the board.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite a bit in this contest depends on the health of Sasser and Shead. Sasser was an All-American selection but logging only 14 minutes while scoring five points in the first round was less than what the Cougars were hoping for against the Norse. The Cougars struggled to pull away against Northern Kentucky and one has to wonder if perhaps Sasser did more damage by attempting to play Thursday night. It’s safe to say that Auburn’s offensive production is better than Northern Kentucky’s and will test the Cougars’ defense more than the Norse did. The Tigers can hang on the glass and make things tough for Houston on the offensive end of the floor. Houston may win the game but it’s going to be a war if Sasser is limited or doesn’t play. Take the points and Auburn in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Rating: 2 Units

If it’s possible for a 30-win team to fl y under the radar, the Owls are doing just that. So disrespected is FAU, they were actually a 2.5-point dog in the title game of the CUSA tourney when they rolled past UAB, 78-56. They bring a glossy 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS mark into this game when coming of a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games. In addition, FAU is also 11-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off pointspread wins. Enter the American Athletic Conference tourney champion Tigers, off an upset win over a banged up Houston squad. They’ll likely pay the price today, though, as the WOM notes that NCAA tourney fi rst round chalk is just 12-25-1 ATS since 2000 when coming off a SU win as an underdog in a conference title game. And it doesn’t help Elvis fans knowing Memphis is only 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS against .828 or greater opponents in this tournament. With it, look for the Owls to fl y to 5-0 ATS in their last fi ve meetings against AAC competition tonight. 

Tournament Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Miami, the ACC regular season and Drake, the Missouri Valley conference tournament. A trio of 5thyear senior guards leads the Bulldogs’ attack: Tucker Devries, Roman Penn, and Garrett Sturtz returned with their extra year of eligibility after having led Drake to 95-wins the previous four years. The terrific threesome averaged 42.1 PPG, 16.5 RPG, and 8.3 APG. They match up well with a Miami unit that also emphasizes guard play. The Canes bring a wobbly 1-5 ATS record as a favorite in this tournament into this fray as well as a 0-3 ATS mark in its last three Missouri Valley contests. Making matters worse, Miami mentor Jim Larranaga is just 1-5 ATS as a single digit favorite in this tournament. Meanwhile, Drake closed the season on a 13-1 winning run. In addition, they were 4-1 SUATS against .750 or greater opponents this campaign. However, we saved the best for last, where Drake head coach Darian DeVries is 10-2 SUATS “between the 4’s” in games on a neutral court

Rating: 2 Units

Certain games have the look and feel of “upset” written all over them, and this is one. The Wildcats enter fresh off an opening round loss to St. Peter’s last season and are just two years removed from a 9-win season. Wooden Award winner Oscar Tshiebwe leads the nation in rebounding (13.1 RPG) while averaging 16.4 PPG. As talented as they are, or can be, the fact of the matter is Kentucky is 0-7 ATS in its last seven non-SEC battles. Providence bolted out of the gate at 14-3 before closing out 7-8. However, Ed Cooley’s clan made it to the Sweet 16 last season as they cashed all three tickets in the tournament. Cooley is a long-term 104-74-4 ATS as a dog, including 19-7 ATS of late.

Rating: 2 Units

For the Boilermakers, it’s the first time as a No. 1 seed since 1996. They’ll enter the Big Dance this year seeking their fi rst Final Four appearance since 1980. The Boilermakers have advanced past the Sweet 16 just once in six previous trips as a top-2 seed. They have, however, made the Sweet 16 or better in four of the past five tournaments, but have been eliminated by No. 15 and 13 seeds the past two years. The good new is they are 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in NCAA tourney openers under Matt Painter, which should comfortably get them underway against either of the two slop buckets advancing for the “First Four” round. 

Tournament Play of the Day

There is a large contingent of Vegas wise guys who like this Creighton team, and it’s understandable.After all, the Blue Jays were ranked No. 9 in the AP preseason poll after winning 23 games the previous season despite being beaten up with injuries. The truth of the matter is unless they win two games in this event and make it to the Sweet 16, they will fall short of last year’s effort. That’s the plight we see happening, and with it, we’re not about to lay points with a team under this sort of scrutiny. For openers, Creighton enters with a crummy 7-13 SU and 5-14- 1 ATS record in this tournament since the turn of the century, including 0-4 ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite. On the fl ip side, NC State enters with a sparking 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS record this season in games when coming off a loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games. In addition, the Pack is 4-1 SUATS in this tourney when entering off a loss when they sport a greater than .666 win percentage. We’re backing the team playing the better ball as playing on any .666 or greater lined Division-1 team in Round One of the NCAA tournament coming off a loss of 24 or more points if they are facing a sub .740 lined Division-1 foe is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1990

Rating: 2 Units

Like Kansas State above, no team has ever won a national championship after losing its fi rst game in the conference tournament. That’s bad news for the Bears, whose season was laced with ups and downs. A 10-2 start was met with a 3-game losing skid. Then a 10-1 winning run was met with a pair of losses, only to close the season out with another pair of defeats. The question is can Scott Drew’s capable band of Bears fi nd another winning streak to close out the season? A cause for concern was that Baylor was outrebounded, 43-15, in its conference tourney loss to Iowa State. If that’s not addressed they could be going into early hibernation. Yes, they’re on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run in this tournament, but all of those games came as a No. 1 seed. On the other side of the coin, the Gauchos have turned into an ATM machine, cashing 19 of their final 27 games, while riding a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS streak into this contest. While they’ve lost all four of their NCAA appearances, they managed to ring the register in those games, going 3-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Micah Shrewsberry will try to keep the momentum going against what has to be a down-in-the-dumps bunch of Aggies, crushed by Alabama in the SEC title game. A plus for the Lions is their 10-5 SU and 14-0-1 ATS record in their last fifteen games on neutral courts. Sure, the Aggies may be 12-2 ATS as a favorite (9-0 ATS the last nine) since the calendar turned on January 1, but the Lions carry an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS ledger in their last ten games into this contest. They are also 13-5 ATS against .666 or greater opponents this season, including six ATS covers in a row when taking points. This will be Texas A&M’s first trip to The Dance since 2018 but we don’t look for the celebration to go much further. Both teams bring plenty to the table but being major dog lovers, we can’t remain neutral here, not with the Nits on a ‘neutral assault’. 

Rating: 2 Units

Houston led the country in scoring margin (+16.0) and they play a suffocating style of defense. They’re also 6-0 ATS in games when coming off a double-digit loss. The feeling here is coach Sampson and company will likely be hell-bent on making a statement in this game today. If it weren’t for the Cougars’ worst-in-class 1-6 ATS mark this season in games versus fellow NCAA Tournament teams, we’d consider snapping the rubber band. Nonetheless, the Norse closed like a racehorse, going 7-1 SUATS down the stretch to capture the Horizon League title. They returned 4 starters from last year’s 20-win unit but were only 2-8 ATS in games outside the Horizon. They are 0-2 all-time in this event, as well as 1-24 ATS in their last 25 outright losses. That might be all you need to know today. 

Rating: 3 Units

This is the fourth time in school history that Duke isn’t a top-4 seed, and In the two previous instances, it lost in the first round (2007 as a No. 6 vs. VCU, 1996 as a No. 8 vs. Eastern Michigan). It could happen again here against an Oral Roberts’ squad that returned their top 6 scorers, and 7 of the top 8 from last year’s 19-win unit this season. The Golden Eagles reached the Sweet 16 in 2021, and their current 18-game win streak is the longest in this tournament. Can’t turn down another of the four 30-win teams in this tournament, especially when we get a look at the fact that ACC tourney champions are just 10-20-1 ATS in opening round games in the NCAA Tournament, including 0-7 ATS as a No. 3 or worse seed.

Rating: 2 Units

Zona is now 61-10 under Lloyd as his troops lost to Houston in the Sweet 16 in this tournament last season – his only postseason loss with the Wildcats (8-1). Lloyd’s 22-2 SU and 17-7 ATS mark in games against foes coming off a win of more than 8 points also figures to serve them well here today. However, Pac-12 conference champions are only 2-6-1 ATS in the first round of the NCAA tournament when facing foes coming off a win. As for Princeton, the Ivy Leaguers sport a 10-5 ATS mark in this tourney since 2010, including 7-1 ATS when coming off a win of 7-plus points. The Tigers are also 6-2 ATS as a double-digit dog under head coach Mitch Henderson versus winning opponents who are not undefeated, in addition to going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a dog this season. Remember, all four No. 2 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 just twice in the past 25 tournaments and given the Wildcats’ wimpy 2-11-1 ATS ledger in its last 14 dances, we’ll be on the take today.

Rating: 2 Units

Considering the Cougars' only NCAA tournament win came way back in 1997, the odds seem stacked against a deep run here. But Charleston has been a tough out in this tournament, as all six games in school history have been decided by 10 or fewer points, despite the Cougars being a 12-seed or worse in four of those five appearances. There are also plenty of hurdles facing the Aztecs in this year’s event. For openers, the Mountain West have never had a team advance beyond the Sweet 16, as opposed to 17 other conferences that have had teams reach the Elite Eight since the MWC was formed in 1999-2000. And it gets uglier as, per ESPN, the MWC is 1-8 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in fi rst round games since 2010. History has not been kind to the Aztecs either, as they’ve gone one-and done in each of the last three Dances while dropping four straight games. They’d also better polish up their 3-point defense for this one – almost half of the Cougars’ shot attempts are from beyond the arc. Add the fact that Charleston fans should descend en masse to the not-so-distant venue in Orlando, and we smell an upset right out of the box.

Rating: 2 Units

A big concern for Utah State: Per ESPN – Mountain West teams seeded 10th or worse are 1-23 all time, with 20 straight losses since the only win in 2002. That’s certainly not good news for the Aggies. Especially as they fi nd themselves dressing up as a favorite against the 7th-seeded Tigers. Head coach Ryan Odom, who coached No 16 seed UMBC to its magical upset over top-seeded Virginia in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, guided the Aggies to the NIT last year and the NCAA Tourney this season in his fi rst two years with Utah State. They play a rugged brand of defense but it’s going to take a major effort to move a mountain and overcome the MWC’s putrid history in this tourney. Yes, Missouri will need to overcome a 0-6 SUATS mark in their last six games on the dance floor but they’ll do so knowing they are 10-5 SUATS in this tournament in games in which they sport the better record. It’s showtime for the Tigers.

Rating: 2 Units

Furman is also one of four “double champions” (teams who won both their regular season and postseason conference titles) who are taking points from foes that won neither. We love fading these often-times disappointed favorites, especially with double-confident champions who are ecstatic to be dancing. Hey, the Paladins won their 15 conference games by an average margin of 16 points, and four players take the fl oor here averaging double-digits. Virginia can claim the second-best defense in the tourney, but they’ll need to apply the screws if they don’t wish to get screwed in this lid-lifter

Rating: 2 Units

This is one of those games where the road team probably doesn't want to be there and the home team just wants to beat an ACC squad. Cincinnati's big advantage is on the boards where Virginia Tech ranks 209th in the nation in rebounding margin a -0.1. Virginia Tech is also bad on the road, shooting just 31.8% from long range, while Cincy is holding teams to 31.2% from long range at home. The Bearcats also put up 82.7 points per game on 47% shooting at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The strange thing here is that FDU is playing tonight despite the fact the Knights actually lost to league champion Merrimack in the Northeast Conference championship game. That's because Merrimack is a Division-1 newbie who made the jump from Division II to Division I in 2019, but is serving the last year of a four-year prohibition from NCAA tournament play following its transition. Editor's note: It's such an archaic rule that needs to be abolished. Nevertheless, the Knights went 1-3 SUATS against 'lined' opponents this season (beat St. Joseph's), and are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in this tourney, with their last appearance resulting in an 87-49 loss to top-seeded Gonzaga in 2019. On the other side of the court, 14-20 Texas Southern enters as the only team in this year's Dance with a losing record, yet own the Southwestern Athletic Conference tourney to make its second consecutive trip to this tournament (beat A&M CC in a "First Four" game last year before bowing out, 83-56, to Kansas thereafter. The Tigers did take down Arizona State, 67-66, as a 12-point home dog this season. While they have the experience, FDU is playing with house-money. And we're not betting against the house.

Rating: 2 Units

This is the clash between a couple of defensive-minded teams. Both schools struggle to shoot the ball from deep and are far away from an elite level when it comes to offensive efficiency. Seton Hall makes just 5.8 triples per game (326th in the country) on a 32.8 percentage clip (259th), while Colorado hits 6.5 threes (282nd) on a 31.9 percentage clip (304th). Hereof, I’m expecting to see a tight battle, so give me the underdogs to cover a 4.5-point spread. Both Pirates and Buffaloes have been pretty inconsistent lately, and it’s hard to trust either side. Seton Hall is 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS in its last eight games overall, though the Pirates have covered the spread in five straight outings on the road. On the other side, Colorado is 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS in its past eight contests overall and 3-4 ATS in its previous seven showings at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Panthers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs a team with a winning record.  While the Bulldogs are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. 

Rating: 2 Units

I have been fading this overrated Wisconsin team throughout the season, and I see no reason to stop here in a matchup against a team that will be more motivated. The Badgers had NCAA Tournament aspirations this season, and they were expected to be a threat to make the second weekend. Instead, they flopped in conference play and only covered the spread five times in their last 20 games. Bradley enters this matchup riding a six-game road winning streak and having won 12 of its last 13 games. The Braves were regular-season champs and will be motivated to prove that was not a fluke against a major-conference team.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Toledo is the hungrier team, with a chip on its shoulder after losing in the MAC Tournament championship. The Rockets were victorious in seventeen straight prior to that game and will be out to prove they can play with a traditional Midwestern power. Toledo's offense is elite and will prove it in Ann Arbor, putting the Wolverines in a tough spot. Will the Wolverines defend their pride and home court in an otherwise unimportant game for a program rich in history? We shall see.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the RedHawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games, and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs a team with a winning % above .600.  Additionally, the Islanders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday Games.

Rating: 2 Units

Purdue has been dominating the Big Ten all season and they won't stop now. Penn State has shot the ball well in the tournament, but they have not faced a defense like Purdue's. Edey takes away any easy opportunity at the hoop, and Braden Smith is an elite defender who will give Pickett problems on the perimeter. Penn State is also a guard heavy team, they often play four or five guards, which is a terrible matchup when going against Edey. Ohio State played a similar guard heavy lineup, and Edey gave them 32 points and 14 rebounds in an easy win. Edey will do the same here, Penn State does not have an interior defender capable of slowing down Edey inside. The big man dominated all season, and will end the Big Ten season with one more big performance.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cougars have won 13 straight games and they haven’t lost a game on the road this season. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 73 points per game away from home. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 78 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Tigers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Tigers aren’t very good defensively, giving up more than 74 points per game on the road, and will have a hard time slowing down the Cougars in this game. The Tigers have won four of their last five games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 75 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Cougars and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Cougars, who average more than eight steals per game. The Cougars have played well defensively and held their last three opponents under 60 points per game, so expect them to keep Memphis’ offense in check. Go with Houston to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite a bit of how this plays out could well be centered on Bona’s status. If he can’t go, the Bruins will have to rely on Mac Etienne and Kenneth Nwuba. That is a major drop not only in production, but in athleticism, as neither one of those guys brings what Bona does to the floor. Potentially having your top big man limited or missing is bad regardless but when you’re dealing with a team with the twin towers duo of Tubelis and Ballo, it puts a lot of pressure on Jaquez Jr. and Campbell to carry a bigger share of the load. Arizona wants to make up for their loss last week at Pauley Pavilion in the regular season finale. The Wildcats have their team ready to go and they are facing a Bruins team that might be worried about avoiding any further injuries. Look for Arizona to claw out a tight win here with both teams preparing for where they’ll end up for the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Rating: 2 Units

When looking at adjusted offensive ratings, there is a huge difference as Toledo is ninth in college basketball with a 119.5 offensive rating while Kent State is currently 135th in the sport with a 107.4 offensive rating. A huge reason why is the difference in the capabilities to knock down threes as the Rockets are second in all of the United States shooting 40.7 percent from beyond the arc as a program while the Golden Flashes are all the way down at 236th in the nation with a 32.9 percentage as a program from distance. All in all, go with the Toledo Rockets to cover the spread. 

Rating: 2 Units

The teams split two meetings this season with each team winning at home. Miami walloped Duke at home in their previous contest, prevailing by 22 points. Duke has won seven straight games as they have turned things around after a slow start on the offensive end of the floor. The Blue Devils are going to be tested defensively by an explosive Miami offensive unit. Miami does have plenty of experience to build around and they are facing a Duke team that is rather lacking in that department. The Blue Devils have played well of late but Miami has the ability to outgun teams almost at will. Give the Hurricanes the slight advantage as they punch their ticket to the title game.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams come into this matchup after poor finishes to the season. Auburn won the regular season battle comfortably, dominating the glass and winning the battle of points off of turnovers. Auburn should once again dominate the glass and get frequent second-chance opportunities against the Razorbacks. Auburn is 20-5 on the season as a favorite while Arkansas has yet to win a game this season as an underdog. The Tigers certainly want to improve their NCAA Tournament position and will do so in this game thanks to their defense and rebounding.

Rating: 2 Units

After staging a spirited comeback attempt against the New Jersey Devils on Sunday, the Arizona Coyotes hope to carry that vibe into today's home game against the St. Louis Blues. The Coyotes rallied from a 4-2 deficit to tie the game and force overtime with the Devils at Mullett Arena. The Blues are 1-5-2 in their last eight. These teams split their first two games this season. The Coyotes won 5-0 at home on Jan. 26 on Karel Vejmelka's 33-save shutout. Consider that the Blues are 8-21 in their last 29 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Notre Dame has struggled all season long and they have dropped five straight meetings with Virginia Tech entering this contest. None of that instills confidence in their chances here. For that matter, their short rotation is problematic against a Hokies team that has pretty decent depth to work with and who are a good scoring unit. Should Starling miss this game as he has the last three, Notre Dame’s already thin group takes another hit and that makes for too deep a hole for them to dig out of here. The Fighting Irish aren’t good enough defensively to overcome missing one of their better offensive players. Virginia Tech brings the curtain down on the Brey era by prevailing here to advance to the second round.

Consider that the Dons are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win, 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  While the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gaels will win straight-up and cover as spread favorites, forcing BYU into enough turnovers to separate on the scoreboard. Saint Mary's slow-tempo approach (359th in pace of play) will put pressure on the Cougars to maximize their offensive opportunities, which will be problematic for a team that averages over 14 turnovers per game, one of the highest turnover ratios in the NCAA. The Cougars will not be able to rely on offensive rebounds, either, as Saint Mary's boasts a +7.1 rebounding margin. I bet the Gaels will win with an efficient shooting performance (52.8 eFG%, 37.2 3PT%) and stout defense (5th in defensive efficiency).

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Norse are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning record, 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.  While the Penguins are 2-8 in their last 10 neutral site games. 

Rating: 3 Units

South Florida will cover the spread on Sunday, playing a more complete game than it did in the first meeting with Wichita State. The Bulls are coming off a rousing Senior Night victory and the Shockers are hoping to rebound from deflating second-half letdown at the hands of number-one Houston. WSU shot over 60 percent in that game and still lost, turning the ball over 18 times. It won't have similar efficiency from the field against the Bulls and could struggle in the rebounding department if Tchewa is available to suit up.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and  1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. While the Bearcats are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NCAAB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Cats are playing their best ball of the season at the right time. Even so, 16-14 Villanova will likely need to win out thru the Big East tourney in order to capture an invite into the NCAA Tournament for the 17th time in the last 18 Dances. Meanwhile, UConn took the opposite approach to the season, opening the campaign on a 14-0 winning run before going just 9-7 heading into March. Still, with 23 wins at press time, the Huskies all but have their NCAA tourney ticket punched. A trip to the archives tells us Villanova is 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in this series, as well as 9-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in Last Home Games. Then there’s the program’s intimidating history: winning the Big East regular season championship 7 of the last 9 years, and the Big East conference tournament 5 of the last 8 years. Yes, they miss Jay Wright, but these are still the players he recruited and they won’t back down now. With a 10-3 SU effort at home this season and revenge for a 74-66 loss to UConn in late December, we seal the deal for Villanova with the fact that UConn is 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS against foes playing their final home game of the season, including 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS when the Huskies sport a .586 or greater win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

Texas Tech has been streaky this season as they started the year 10-2, dropped eight in a row, then won six of eight before losing their last two games. The Red Raiders aren’t quite as stingy defensively as they’ve been in recent seasons but they are at home here. Texas Tech is 11-5 at home while Oklahoma State has posted just a 4-7 mark as the visiting team on the year. The Cowboys have slumped of late with five straight losses and they have only two road wins in conference play. Oklahoma State doesn’t have great offensive firepower and that proves to be their undoing as the Red Raiders earn a home win to close the regular season on a positive note.

Rating: 3 Units

Arkansas is coming off back-to-back losses to ranked opponents, while Kentucky took a tough 68-66 defeat against Vanderbilt on Wednesday. After their regular-season finale, the Southeastern Conference tournament awaits, and both teams are projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Calipari kept praising his players for the fight they showed against the Commodores. The Wildcats (20-10, 11-6 SEC) trailed by 11 in the second half and rallied to take a two-point lead with 1:10 left on a jumper by Oscar Tshiebwe'. Vanderbilt's Jordan Wright scored the next two baskets, and the Wildcats' Antonio Reeves missed a 3-point attempt at the buzzer.  Consider that the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

NCAAB Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Huggins led the Wildcats in 2006 and 2007, and he’s currently 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with same-season revenge of 4 or more points at WVU against KSU (Wildcats beat West Virginia on New Year’s Eve, 82-76). It’s been an inconsistent season for WVU, though expectations were low after only 1 starter returned from the previous campaign’s 16-17 squad. But even though the Hillbillies have won just twice in their last six games, those two wins came in their last three outings. Owners of a 17-13 record at press time, the Huggies are sitting firmly on the NCAA bubble and needs this like kielbasa needs sauerkraut. Not so for the Wildcats, who are sitting pretty after knocking off Oklahoma to improve to 23-7 with 11 wins in Big 12 play. This is not a good role for the visitors, though, as they’re 0-3 SUATS against foes in Last Home Games playing with same-season revenge of 6 or fewer points. The Manhattan Cats are also just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS away in Big 12 Last Road Games in regular season finales. Finally, Huggy’s team is 12-4 SU in WVU Coliseum this season, which fits right in with the fact that WVU head coach Bob Huggins is 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS in Last Home Games when playing with three or more 

days of rest, including 7-0 SUATS with West Virginia

Rating: 3 Units

The Ohio State Buckeyes recently had a nine-game losing streak which they finally ended last week. It’s been a disastrous season for a squad that has plenty of skill. They have not been a reliable team, covering in only two of their last ten bouts. The Michigan State Spartans have only lost two Big Ten home games all season. The Buckeyes' defense has been the culprit in many losses. They are squandering 102.8 points per 100 possessions, ranking them 113th while the Spartans are only allowing 96.3 points per 100. MSU has averaged a remarkable 88 points in their last three games. The Spartans completely dominated the Buckeyes last month on the road, winning by 20 points. 

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are playing pretty well and neither is an offensive juggernaut. Washington has covered four straight in this series. Washington State barely won the first game at home as Brooks shot just 4-of-16 from the field. The Huskies shoot it much better at home, where they make 44.3% of their shots and allow just 40.5% from the field. On the other hand, Washington State is shooting under 40% (38.6%) from the field on the road. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Two Pac-12 bottom feeders meet up Thursday night when Stanford battles Oregon State at Corvallis, Ore. The Cardinal (12-17, 6-12 Pac-12) are in 10th place in the 12-team conference while the Beavers (10-19, 4-14) are 11th. Stanford is hoping to build momentum after Sunday's solid 81-69 home victory over Washington. The victory was just the second in the past seven games for the Cardinal.

Rating: 2 Units'

Juan Howard’s Wolverine hoopsters are in need of every win they can muster if they wish to impress the selection committee. Fortunately for Howard, his team has responded with a 5-2 SUATS February compared to a middling 3-3 SUATS effort from the Illini. The Wolverines are 6-1-1 ATS with revenge in this series (Illini took them down twice last season) when Illinois enters with a sub. 700 win percentage, and the WOM reminds us the Wolves are 8-4 ATS as a dog during the regular season following a LHG, including 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS when facing sub .750 foes. As if that’s not enough to contend with, Illinois is staring down a double revenge affair of its own on tap with highly-ranked Purdue. Remember, Michigan was a preseason Top 20 pick in the polls, so the talent is still there.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears had dropped two straight games to Kansas and Kansas State prior to a same-season revenger against Texas at Waco over the weekend, and they’re just 4-20 SU and 8-16 ATS after the Longhorns, including 3-14 ATS when coming off a loss (check Saturday result). That doesn’t bode well considering the Pokes are 6-0-1 ATS in this series with same-season revenge from a loss of 7 or more points when Baylor takes the floor with a greater than .666 win percentage. Oklahoma State also performs well in Last Home Games, going 21-7 SU and 18-10 ATS the last this role, including 3-0 SUATS with same-season revenge of 15-plus points. Home teams in the Big 12 have fl exed their muscles this campaign, going 123-28 SU overall and 50-25 SU in conference clashes. Those stats look especially good when the visiting Bears bring a woeful 5-22 ATS record when coming off a home game and facing foes in LHGs.

Rating: 2 Units

UCLA has not only won seven in a row but is 4-2-1 ATS in that span. Colorado is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Bruins beat a double-digit spread against the Buffaloes last time despite trailing for over half the game. Their defense absolutely shut down an inefficient Colorado offense and should be able to do it again. I wouldn't worry about UCLA playing on the road either, as they're 8-2 in away games this season and 6-3-1 ATS. I'm riding a team that's hot and has an elite defense against a team that's cold and has a lackluster offense. Take UCLA to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

Currently in a three-way tie for 3rd place in the MVC, the 5-returning starter Sycamores have been on a scorching 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS skein with the only loss coming by a single point at Belmont, 89-88. We expect them to return to their winning ways here, especially since they were nipped by Missouri State, 64-62, in Springfi eld in mid-January. In the 11 games since beating the Sycamores, the Bears are a money-burning 2-8-1 ATS. Yes, they arrive off a off same season revenge victory over Murray State, but they’re just 1-3 ATS after running with the Racers. The final coffin nail for Missouri State is its 0-5 ATS failure in the last five games when coming off a win. Additionally, Indiana State is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in Last Home Games of the season, including 4-0-1 ATS when playing with revenge.

Rating: 3 Units

Maryland is unbeaten in its nine conference home games this season, making the Terrapins a team that I am thrilled to back on Sunday afternoon, especially given the circumstances. Northwestern is coming off its most disappointing loss of the season, blowing a 16-point lead in the second half of its game against Illinois. The Wildcats have only won three of the last 14 head-to-head meetings between these teams, and they have a major emotional hurdle to overcome in this contest. Maryland has covered in eight of its last 11 games and should fare well against a Northwestern offense that has a tendency to go cold.

Rating: 2 Units

Indiana has dropped its last 2 games on the road against Northwestern (64-62, Feb. 15) and Michigan State (80-65, Tuesday), and the Hoosiers are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) across the past 3 games overall. It seems like forever since the Hoosiers picked up a 79-74 win over the rival Boilermakers, but it was just on Feb. 4. Purdue snapped a 2-game mini skid with an emphatic 82-55 win over disappointing Ohio State Sunday. While the Boilermakers have dropped 3 in a row on the road, they love a little home cooking, going 15-1 at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Boise State is currently breathing down the neck of MWC leader San Diego State, just one game back at press time. Then there’s the ugly fact that it’s been almost a month since BSU cashed a ticket, going 6-1 SU but only 1-6 ATS. Conference road favorites on a 5-game ATS losing skid like Boise are just 7-13 ATS against winning opposition, including 3-10 SUATS when favored by 4 or fewer points. And not only are the Spartans 3-0 ATS the last three games in this series, and 3-0 SUATS at home when coming off a previous home loss, they’ve logged a competitive 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS home record at The Event Center this season. With the Broncos taking the court off a same-season revenge win against New Mexico and sporting just a 3-7 ATS effort against avenging foes in post-Lobo competitions, west coast Sparty gets the call.

Rating: 2 Units

While the South Carolina game was nearly a disaster, being back home should bring Bama back to their usual dominance. At home, they are significantly better on both ends of the floor than their season averages, and their numbers this season are already elite. Along with that, they're 9-4-0 ATS at home while Arkansas is 2-6-0 ATS on the road. These teams play the same brand of basketball, Alabama just does everything better. The first game proved that, and now that this one is in Tuscaloosa, Alabama should roll into another resounding victory. Take the Crimson Tide to cover the spread against the Razorbacks again.

CBB Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

The Dawgs are 3-0 ATS home as a dog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in this series, 3-0 SUATS as a conference home dog when coming off a loss of 30-plus points, and 5-1 ATS as conference home dogs over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Missouri stands just 2-4 SUATS in games after battling MSU and the Tigers have struggled to cash tickets of late, going just 1-5 ATS in their six most recent outings. In this battle of cats and dogs, we’ll back the Dawgs with added support coming knowing that playing on any college hoops home dog with a winning record coming off consecutive losses of 28 or more points is 7-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 3 Units

I am not overly concerned about Iowa’s recent losses on the road, as the Hawkeyes have been much better at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They rely almost entirely on their offense to win games, making them a team to back at home and fade on the road. In fact, they have won seven straight home games coming into this contest, and they should be in somewhat of a desperation mode to get back on track with NCAA Tournament seeding. Michigan State has only covered the spread once in the last five meetings between these teams and its dependence on 3-point shots makes is going to cost the Spartans on Saturday.

Rating: 2 Units

Xavier was one of just three teams with a chance to catch conference-leading Marquette before the league tournament. However, with a 20-win season in check (see Saturday result vs DePaul) and coming off a tussle at home against Villanova, this looks to be a natural let down spot for the X-Men. That notion is supported by the Musketeers’ 4-9 ATS effort versus .600 or fewer opponents this season, including 0-5 ATS the last five. The revenge angle is more than a notion, however, as the Pirates lost at the Cintas Center back in December, 73-70, and just so happen to own a 4-0 SUATS mark with revenge in this series of late. Most importantly for the kids in the Hall are squarely on the ever-shifting NCAA bubble. But we’ve got no time for bubble talk, not when we can tell you the Pirates own a rock-solid 20-10 ATS ledger as dogs versus .750 or greater foes. Grab the points. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Bruins took the first matchup between these two teams by 19 points while holding the Utes to just 49 points overall. UCLA has won seven of the last ten meetings between the two schools. They have the best road mark in the Pac-12 at 7-2 and are 22-2 this season as a favorite. UCLA is 5-3-1 ATS on the road this year as well. They have won six straight against Utah and are 4-2 ATS in that time. Additionally, Utah is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

New Mexico went on a 0-4 SUATS losing skid when the Valentine month rolled around and took a 0-3 ATS record against avenging foes this season into San Jose State at press time. No such misery has befallen the Broncos, currently one loss back of San Diego State for the top spot in the MWC. Boise State has a huge advantage in momentum, winning 10 of its last 12 contests before hosting UNLV on Sunday. And guess what? One of those two defeats came in an 81-79 close-call OT loss to the Lobos in Albuquerque a month ago. Big Blue is 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS versus .600 or greater foes this season, including 2-0 SUATS when playing the revenge card. Best of all, the Broncos have dictated the point spread outcomes in this series of late, going 8-1 ATS. Simply put, we’re seeing signs of the Lobos packing their bags early this season.

Rating: 2 Units

Fortunately for UCF fans, the series host is on a money-making 14-3 ATS run. That sets the table for big-time revenge, as the Bulls tripped up the Knights, 85-72, as 4.5-point home dogs a month ago. In addition to being 26-1-1 ATS in outright conference wins when seeking revenge, the formerly golden Knights stand 3-0 SUATS in this series when seeking same-season loss revenge. Considering South Florida is 1-10 SU versus .570 or great foes this season – with the lone win versus UCF – Finally, USF is 0-18 ATS in its last 18 outright conference losses versus avenging foes.

Rating: 2 Units

I can't find a reason not to bet on Bradley in this one. They're better than Valpo on a per-possession basis in nearly every statistic. They've won eight straight and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. They won four of those six games by double digits. Meanwhile, Valpo is 1-3-0 ATS in their last four. The Beacons' only edge in the first game was with fouls. They committed 10 fewer than Valpo did and finished with 17 more free throw attempts. Despite that, Valpo never had a lead in the game and trailed by as much as 33. That game was never close, and this game shouldn't be either. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals rode the moment of the 10-year anniversary of a championship team and a packed house on Saturday to pull off their biggest upset of the season. Looking a little deeper, however, the Cardinals have played significantly better over the latter part of this season. The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. They are also a respectable 4-4 ATS on the road this season. Meanwhile, Duke comes in just 6-7 ATS at home this season despite being 13-0. Additionally, the Blue Devils are 3-10 in their last 13 games ATS. Duke will win this game but the Cardinals will continue their recent momentum and cover this line.

Rating: 2 Units

I do not trust Oklahoma State’s offense to come up with enough buckets to keep pace with West Virginia on Monday night. I am also extremely concerned about the defensive effort that they showed on Saturday, as they have been one of the top defensive teams in college basketball this season. This is a rough spot to try to turn things around, as West Virginia is in a revenge spot at home and tends to play better at its home arena due to the offensive-minded nature of its lineup. Oklahoma State’s bad offense tends to be the deciding factor away from home, as it is 4-12 in its last 16 road games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Huskers will win straight-up at home vs. Maryland. They'll have another hot shooting night, especially from three, which will be tough for the Terps (335th in 3PT%) to duplicate. When Maryland gets on a roll, it reminds us why the Big Ten was siked to add the program to its collection of hoops powerhouses. It's too soon, though, to expect Maryland to rise to the top of the conference under a new head coach. Winning six of seven is great for the direction of the program, but UM's luck will run out on the road against a Nebraska team that's better than it has played this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The fact is the Tigers were whipped by the Cougars, 71-53, in the finals of the AAC title game last season – causing today’s ‘Revenge’ domino to set things in motion. First, Memphis is 12-3 ATS in this series, including 5-0 ATS when seeking revenge, and 6-0 ATS when coming off a win. Next, the guys from Graceland are 8-3 SU and 6-4-1 ATS when seeking LTKO (League Tourney Knock Out) revenge, including 5-0 ATS when coming off a win. And like OJ’s hand struggling to fi t in the famous glove, Houston can offer up only a 1-5 ATS failure at home versus LTKO seeking foes in its defense, including 0-4 ATS versus .500 or greater foes. Look, the Cougars have made all their money on the road this season, going 7-1 ATS as a visitor as opposed to just 8-8 ATS as a host, including a gaudy 0-7 ATS against .430 or greater opposition.

Rating: 2 Units

Ohio State continues to be an unbackable team right now, as it is winless straight up and against the spread in seven straight games. The Buckeyes are running into a Purdue team that is returning home angry after suffering its first losing streak of the campaign. The Boilermakers have won four of their last five games against Ohio State and are riding a five-game home winning streak. They already went on the road and beat the Buckeyes once this season, as the Buckeyes do not have enough length to deal with Edey. I expect Purdue to get back on track with an emphatic win against a disastrous Ohio State squad.

CBB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Arizona bested the Buffs, 82-72, in the semifinals of the P-12 tourney last season – as they bring a sterling 16-2 ATS ledger into this affair when they sport a sub .570 win percentage on the season. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are coming off a decisive 88-62 revenge win over Utah on Thursday with archrival ASU up next, and Zona is just 6-16 ATS at home before facing the Sun Devils. Consider that Colorado is 9-1 ATS when seeking revenge from a conference tourney loss the previous season, including 7-0 ATS when the Buffaloes sport a sub .769 win percentage, as well as 6-0 ATS when facing .700 or greater opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dawgs are just 1-7 SU away under first-year coach Mike White, including 0-4 SUATS the last four by an average losing margin of more than 22 PPG. Uh oh. Then there’s how Bama responded after a previous loss to Oklahoma, absolutely destroying a decent Vanderbilt squad in a 101-44 rout. The fact of the matter is Alabama is loaded, currently the No. 3 team in the land in Defensive Field Goal Percentage – the stat every college head coach would give his eye teeth for – and will be looking to get even for losing to Georgia in Athens last year as 14.5-point chalk. The Bulldogs enter off a revenge win over LSU, going 0-3 SUATS after taking on the Tigers by an average losing score of 96-69. We don’t want any of that and neither should you, especially when the Crimson Tide stands 3-0 SUATS at home off a SU favorite loss with a win percentage of .830 or greater, by an average wipeout of 91-58. 

Rating: 2 Units

Virginia Tech is another team that started the season strong only to see things come apart as the calendar flipped to 2023. The Hokies have gone just 4-10 in their last 14 games after opening the year 11-1, putting their chances at earning an at-large bid in March Madness in serious jeopardy. Pitt has defied expectations all season long, which is how they find themselves holding a share of the ACC lead this late in the season. The Panthers have played solid team basketball and they are above average on both ends of the floor. Pitt has an array of offensive weapons to rely on and a deep rotation. The Panthers aren’t intimidated playing in Blacksburg after already winning in Chapel Hill and battling Duke to the wire at Cameron Indoor. In addition, they are 7-2 as the visiting team straight up and 9-0 ATS this season. Pitt makes it seven straight wins as they earn a tough road win here.

Rating: 2 Units

Appalachian State’s basketball team has finally found some traction, winning two of its last three to improve to 8-7 in conference play. That’s good enough for a tie with ODU in the league race, as the Monarchs dropped a 76-67 decision at James Madison on Thursday to slip to 8-7. Old Dominion also suffered a 14-point home loss to these Mountaineers a month ago, and we love winning teams taking points in payback roles, especially those who are 11-1 SUATS in games when coming off a loss, including 9-1 SUATS this season. Even better, the hill-dwellers are just 6-13 ATS as home chalk against avenging foes under head coach Dustin Kerns, including 1-8 ATS in games in which the Apps own a sub .570 win percentage. ASU is also coming off a revenge victory on Thursday against Texas State, and the Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS the last six at home after facing the Bobcats.

Rating: 2 Units

It's a tight spread, so I'm taking San José State to win and cover. For starters, a home team hasn't lost in this series since February 2018. Second, New Mexico is in a tailspin right now, as their four-game losing streak has been a product of shoddy defense. Since beating San José State, New Mexico is allowing 81.3 points per game and is 1-6-0 ATS. In their last seven, the Spartans are 5-2-0 ATS, with all five wins ATS coming by at least 10.5 points. New Mexico's defense can't stop anyone right now, and on the road against a team playing well, that should cost them dearly. I like San José State in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Flyers have won four of their last five games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they shoot the ball well, making 47 percent of their shots. They rebound the ball well and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Ramblers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Ramblers aren’t very good defensively and they don’t play much better at home, giving up more than 71 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Flyers in this game. The Ramblers have lost four of their last six games and five of their last seven home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 72 points per game. They’ve struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Flyers and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Flyers, who averaged more than six steals per game in their last three games. The Flyers have played well defensively and they’re just as good on the road, holding opponents under 65 points per game, and will keep Loyola-Chicago’s offense in check. Go with Dayton to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

I think I would be backing Kent State in this matchup regardless of the way these teams played earlier this week, but those outcomes only make me feel even better about the Golden Flashes in this contest. They are coming off one of the best offensive showings of the season, while Eastern Michigan looked lifeless in its blowout loss. The Eagles are one of the worst defensive teams in college basketball, so I am not worried about Kent State’s offense scoring enough points to cover this number. The Golden Flashes have one of the longest active home winning streaks in college basketball (19) and are 15-1 in their last 16 home games against Eastern Michigan.

Rating: 2 Units

The Alabama Crimson Tide have climbed to #1 in the AP Top 25 and remain undefeated in SEC play. The Tennessee Volunteers are stumbling, losing three out of their last four games and the previous two losses were especially weak, losing to Vanderbilt and Missouri. Alabama is the superior team in the offensive end. They are averaging 117.4 points per 100 possessions, marking them 13th in all of DI while Tennessee is posting 112.3 points per 100. The Crimson Tide has an elite defense similar to the Volunteers, but recently it has been the Crimson Tide defense that has looked better. Tennessee allowed Vanderbilt to shoot 40% from deep two games ago and Missouri was able to sink 52% of their field goals against the Vols on Saturday. 

Rating: 2 Units

New Mexico pulled off a one-point victory the last time these teams met as Mashburn had 20 points. Wyoming matched New Mexico in almost every area during that game, but the Lobos hit one more free throw than the Cowboys, making that the margin of victory. Wyoming has been in a terrible funk, dropping 14 of 16 games since winning two in a row (December 6-10). They have lost each of their last three games by at least 10 points and have lost seven in a row by at least eight.

Rating: 3 Units

Oklahoma State (16-9, 7-5 Big 12) gets a second chance at beating No. 5 Kansas (20-5, 8-4) on Tuesday night in Stillwater, Okla., after letting a 15-point halftime road lead get away on Dec. 31 and succumbing 69-67 to the then-No. 4 Jayhawks. A chance to force overtime came up short in the final seconds when Kansas' Kevin McCullar Jr. blocked a shot by Oklahoma State's Bryce Thompson. Speaking after Oklahoma State's 64-56 upset win at No. 11 Iowa State on Saturday, Cowboys guard Caleb Asberry reflected on the loss to Kansas. "We lost that game, a close one. We're ready to get that one back, too. Now we're in good contention to win this whole thing," Asberry said. Consider that the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Rating: 2 Units

Revenge will be on the minds of the Friars in this matchup as well as a chance to climb into the thick of the Big East regular season title race. In the first matchup, Providence shot just above 30% in the first half and fell behind by 14 points before rallying in the second half and falling short. At home this season, Providence is a perfect 13-0 on the season while Creighton is a game under .500 on the road. Providence will come into this game looking to bounce back from a poor shooting performance against St. John's on the road. In the Friars' last three home wins, they have held the opposition to 64 points or younger in each of the outings. Providence will dominate the glass and slow down the red hot Bluejays.

Rating: 2 Units

Bet on West Virginia to cover the spread Monday at Baylor. The Mountaineers, 20th overall in KenPom's rating database, are 18th in offensive efficiency and 40th in defensive efficiency this season. They're a solid team fighting to make the NCAA Tournament against a Baylor squad that's been tested a lot recently. The Bears will be in another closer game than they hoped to be in on Monday. With consecutive games against Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas looming, it's hard to blame Baylor for overlooking West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight-up loss and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these programs. Bet on WVU to at least cover in this Big 12 clash.

CBB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Ohio State has put in a dreadful 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS effort versus Big Ten foes. Yes, the Buckeyes ran out to a solid 10-3 start this campaign, but OSU enters Value City Arena today with a confusion-inducing 1-9 SUATS record in its last ten contests. As a result, Holtmann’s heroes are looking down with only one team – Minnesota – left between them and the bottom of the Big Ten cellar. Here comes more trouble, as the Spartans are 6-1 SUATS away in this series when looking to exact revenge from a loss the previous season, as well as 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS when seeking anytime revenge and playing on four or more days of rest, including 7-1 SUATS versus sub .740 foes. And with the Buckeyes losing four of their previous five home games, we expect to see a fully energized Izzo today. Finally, playing on Michigan State and head coach Tom Izzo with 3 or more days of rest from Game 20 out if they are seeking same-season revenge against a .700 or fewer conference opponent is 20-4 ATS since 1998.

Rating: 2 Units

The Temple Owls are excelling in conference play where they are 8-4. Temple is one of the better road squads, winning four of their last five AAC road games including the upset win against Houston. The only AAC road loss was a narrow one-point decision. The Memphis Tigers continue to have larger spreads but have only covered in one of their last four home games. The Owls' defense will keep them in this game. They are only conceding 100.5 points per 100 possessions compared to 97.4 per 100 by the Tigers. The Tigers are squandering too many points recently, surrendering at least 80 points in three of their last four games.

Rating: 2 Units

The boys from Provo darn near beat the Zags in their last meeting, falling by just a single point, 75-74, and that sets the table for this payback. BYU is 3-0 ATS when seeking same season revenge from a 1-point conference loss, and head coach Mark Pope owns a glittering 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS record when coming off a loss of more than 10 points (BYU was toppled, 92-80, at Pepperdine on Thursday as -7.5 chalk). The ATS pickings are a bit more slim for the Zags, who are a shocking 3-14 ATS as a favorite after having been a favorite the previous game, including 1-9 ATS when favored by a dozen or fewer points. They’re also just 7-13 ATS when coming off a SUATS win and facing a conference foe seeking same-season revenge. Yes, Gonzaga has already won 20 games this season, but a lackluster 9-15 point spread effort means Few and company are not to be trusted. Finally consider that the Zags are 0-6 ATS this season when coming off a SUATS win of 6 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

LSU, at 12-12 are still very much alive for a postseason tourney bid, and they’ve had good fortune in games where they own a .500 mark, going 7-2 SU and 5-2 ATS. Plus, there’s the small matter of revenge from Texas A&M’s 69-56 curtailing of the Tigers when they met just over a month ago in College Station. LSU is also catching the Aggies at just the right time in their schedule, with A&M just completing a season sweep over Auburn and owning a weak 2-4 SUATS record after facing Aubbie when taking on .600 or fewer foes during the regular season. Feeling better now? We also can’t ignore the possibility that the Aggies could be looking dead ahead to a same-season revenge affair with Arkansas, and they’re just 1-5 ATS as chalk before Hogs hookups. Enough with this bug business! Join us as LSU begins its road back from infamy tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Titans are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record, and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. While the Phoenix are 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games overall, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Rating: 2 Units

Oklahoma State took the first meeting between these teams by only two points, but nailed nine three-point shots compared to only two made threes by the Cyclones. Iowa State is a different animal offensively at home, and I see things going their way in this revenge game on their home floor. The Cyclones average 75.6 ppg at home this season, which are 10 points more per game than what they have put up on the road, but Oklahoma State is averaging 67.7 ppg on the road, which are three points less per game in their home production. Iowa State is also knocking down 7.5 threes per game at home, compared to 6.7 threes per road game for Oklahoma State. The favorite has covered the number in nine of the last 12 games played in this rivalry, and I see Iowa State out shooting Oklahoma State in this, and winning by at least seven.

Rating: 2 Units

Given the stakes and pressure, I like the Cavaliers here. Virginia has the experience advantage, and this will be a difficult matchup for the young Blue Devils, who have five freshmen in their eight-man rotation. Duke is only 1-7 against the spread in their last eight road games and just 1-9 against the spread when facing a winning team. Virginia is 4-1-1 in their previous six games against winning teams and has covered in four straight home games.

Rating: 2 Units

Oklahoma stands 6-2 SUATS at home with same-season revenge in this series, including 6-0 ATS when not laying points, plus the Sooners are 7-1 ATS overall the last eight games when they enter with a dead even .500 win percentage. More bad news for Kansas after their 8-point win over Texas on Monday, as the ‘Hawks are a mediocre 6-12 ATS post-Longhorns when favored against avenging foes, including 0-5 ATS during the regular season when coming off a SUATS win. It’s also a fact that KU doesn’t automatically cash a ticket with every SU win, as they’re just 9-9 ATS this season in games they win on the scoreboard. Tack on Moser’s 10-4 SUATS success at home when his troops are coming off three losses, including 6-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points, and we see Oklahoma assuming the role of ‘windshield’ here today. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Musketeers, who have won 14 of their last 16 games, stand 13-3 ATS away in this series, including 3-0 ATS with revenge. That’s because Butler made the mistake of knocking Xavier out in the donkey round, 89-82, of last year’s Big East tourney, and the Bulldogs are just 2-5 ATS at home against LTKO opponents. Their 3-40-1 ATS mark in SU conference home losses seals the deal. The Musketeers will skewer these guys.

Rating: 2 Units

Purdue is the type of team that I want to back at home, as it features a pair of freshman guards as two of its key players. The Boilermakers are generally going to play better in a comfortable environment. They put together one of their worst halves of the season in the first half at Indiana on Saturday, but they gave themselves some momentum coming into this matchup with a strong second half. Iowa has struggled away from home due to its reliance on its offense as well, going 1-4 in its last five road games. The Hawkeyes have only recorded one win in their last 12 games at Purdue, and they are going to struggle against the motivated Boilermakers.