Rating: 2 Units

The wrong team is favored in this game. The Wolfpack have been terrible so far. They lost by 27 points yesterday while allowing 102 points. The Patriots have looked good on both ends of the floor. They are on fire from beyond the arc and that should continue against the Wolfpack’s terrible defense.

Rating: 2 Units

This play is a fade on the Thunderbirds. In their three games against Division I opponents, they are 0-3 straight up and against the spread. They have looked terrible on both ends of the court and they have shown no potential to get better. The Bulldogs are really strong defensively and they have shown some sparks offensively. The Bulldogs are a much better and more experienced team. They have good chemistry and it shows on defense. Lay the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Gonzaga is the number one team in the country for good reason. The Zags are stacked. But they have their hardest game of the season Tuesday against UCLA. Once they get ahead big here, they likely will rest starters. The Chippewas' offense has shown potential. This spread is too high.

Rating: 2 Units

My model has this one at 8.5. This is a huge matchup on the road for Belmont, and I think it might be a bit too tall of a task. The Tigers are 4-0 against the spread and have won every game by at least 16 points. Lay them with LSU.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pride are underrated. They're 1-3 but every game has been close. Dating back to last season, the Pride are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 as underdogs. The Spiders have been inconsistent, especially on defense. Their defense has been really bad the last three games and it has cost them two wins. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Tony Bennett's Virginia squad has looked uncharacteristically shaky out of the gate, starting the season 2-2. However, Georgia may be the Power Five's worst team this season and has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating that ranks it 189th in the nation. The Cavaliers have struggled to score through four games but have a good matchup here against a Bulldogs team that has a defensive efficiency rating that is No. 230 in the country. Virginia's tight defense should smother Georgia enough to cover the number.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pirates took care of business against the bad teams and then beat fourth-ranked Michigan. According to KenPom, they rank 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buckeyes had two scares against bad teams at home. Their last game was their first game on the road, and they lost to unranked Xavier. Now they have to face a better team in the Pirates. Lay the small number.

Rating: 2 Units

 I'll grab the favorite here as the model has it at -5.5 for the Badgers. This game is probably going to come down to turnovers, and Wisconsin has the edge there. The Badgers are eighth in the nation in turnovers allowed, while the Aggies are 22nd in turnovers forced. The high rate for Texas A&M has given it some good wins, but against a team that protects the ball like Wisconsin, the Aggies may have trouble covering.

Rating: 2 Units

Let's get this winning day started with an 11 a.m. ET tip from Jacksonville. Neither team is great with KenPom ranking Little Rock at No. 300 and Northern Illinois at 319. The Huskies have lost three straight in blowout fashion. They were picked to finish dead last in the MAC so I simply like Little Rock as the lesser of two evils. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Trojans winning by 6.

Rating: 2 Units

 I had this as a play at +7.5 Saturday night and the market has moved it another 1.5 points in my favor. I'll take it. The model makes this a 4.5 spread, meaning we are getting five points of value on this line by my numbers. Indiana State has quietly covered three of its first four games, including both as an underdog. This line is simply too big. I don't think Indiana State wins, but it won't lose by 10. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The wrong team is favored here. I make Northeastern -1.5, so we are getting a nice four-point edge. Both teams have been playing decent basketball, but I think this one comes down to a bucket at the end of the game, and I'll take the points in that scenario every time.

Rating: 2 Units

This line has fallen but there's still value on Louisiana. The Ragin' Cajuns are extremely stout defensively and they have the size to make Indiana work for every basket. The Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games dating to last season, while Louisiana is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine versus teams with .600-plus winning percentages. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The model has Creighton favored by one point. Colorado State has only covered against Oral Roberts, failing to do so against Pine Bluff and Bradley, and now this will be their first game with a single-digit spread. I just don't see the Rams doing well enough to win by four points. If anything, the Bluejays have an advantage in the Paradise Jam semifinals because they have a tenured coach who has led them to back-to-back solid wins against Nebraska and Brown. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Have to say I don't get this spread whatsoever -- every model has Youngstown State as the favorite. SportsLine's has the Penguins winning by 7. ESPN's by 3.6. Sagarin's by 2.6. It's the third game in three days for both and that clearly favors the home side. Youngstown is 5-1 ATS in its past six as a dog.

Rating: 2 Units

The Quakers have looked really good even with a 2-4 record. They have had a tough schedule. The Monarchs have had an easy schedule but have looked terrible. Their offense is a mess. The last two games, they scored 96 points combined on 30.4 percent shooting. The wrong team is favored in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

My numbers have DePaul winning this by 13 points and I would play 9.5 or -10 as well. DePaul has yet to lose ATS, going 2-0-1 to open the season. On Thursday they notched an upset win against Rutgers and now are less double digit favorites against Western Illinois. This is mostly because the Leathernecks beat Nebraska, but Nebraska just isn't playing well, and DePaul will be a much tougher test for Western Illinois. Trust the model.

Rating: 2 Units

I have the wrong team favored on this one as the model is making the Vaqueros -2. We've been pretty successful with the home underdogs so let's look to keep it rolling with this sizable edge. I'd play it all the way down to +1.5 but it's been going the other way today so you might be able to get an even better number before the 2 p.m. tipoff.

Rating: 2 Units

Drake has played two games so far, and the stat line already looks like a Drake one from last season when the team started 18-0. The Bulldogs shoot at a high percentage (53.5), defend well (37.7 shooting percent allowed) and are shooting 51.1 percent from 3-point land. They also have all five starters back. A well coached team of upperclassmen doesn't make mistakes often. The home edge for Drake against Richmond gives this more value than the number indicates. Bulldogs cover.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears have looked incredible to start this season. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball as they are ranked sixth in the nation in adjusted efficiency margin, per Kenpom. The Cardinal are 3-1 but haven’t looked good. In their one road game, they lost by 16 as a 3.5 point favorite. Now they have to go to Waco to face the reigning champions. The Bears amazing offense and fast pace should carry them to a huge win and cover.

Rating: 2 Units

This seems like a big number considering how mediocre Michigan has looked and that UNLV is unbeaten, a veteran team and at home, although technically a neutral site at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in something called the Roman Main Event. I'd expect this game to do massive betting action because of the start time: 12:30 early Saturday morning ET. People love to chase on late-night games -- why Hawaii football home games do so well. That unusual tip time might affect the Wolverines a lot more than the Rebs as well.

Rating: 2 Units

Ah, the Clean Old-Fashioned Hate rivalry. This spread seems a bit off -- bet it drops by morning -- so I'll happily take the Dawgs and the points. Tech's lone loss is at home to a MAC school, while Georgia's is at a good Cincinnati team. The SportsLine Projection Model has Tech currently winning by a point and a few others I've checked list UGA as the favorite. Coach Tom Crean's club is led by three good veteran transfers in Aaron Cook, Kario Oguendo and Braelen Bridges.

Rating: 2 Units

Respect to readers if you can tell me where both Stetson and Lamar are located. Or if you know anyone named Stetson or Lamar personally (I don't know them but Georgia QB Stetson Bennett and of course Ravens QB Lamar Jackson). Anyways, this line seems off. The SportsLine Projection Model has Lamar winning by 5. So does ESPN's power rankings. Sagarin has the Cardinals by 2. Stetson has been blown out in both road games and had a quick turnaround/travel after losing Wednesday at Miami of Ohio.

Rating: 2 Units

 Early projections show the Buffs should be around 10-point favorites for this Paradise Jam matchup in the Virgin Islands -- I actually attended that once. Quite fun. Colorado hasn't been challenged in a 3-0 start. The Buffs are averaging 90.3 points and shooting 51.5 percent from the field. Southern Illinois lost at Little Rock and beat Austin Peay so an obvious step up here for the Salukis. CU has outrebounded its three foes by 17 per game and will have a massive size advantage here. I'm thinking this spread rises a few points by tipoff.

Rating: 2 Units

we'll take this solid edge and continue to bet on home teams getting points. George Mason is coming off a big win over Maryland, which is probably what is giving JMU the value here (i.e. letdown for Patriots).

Rating: 2 Units

This pick is a fade on the Terrapins, who have looked terrible to start this season. They are 3-1, but it is easy to see this team isn’t good. The Terrapins have struggled on both ends but play at such a slow pace it doesn’t show up in the stats. Now they have to play against a good Hofstra team. The Pride are 1-2, but they have looked good and are elite from three-point range. That is where Maryland has had most of its defensive struggles. If the Pride get hot from downtown, they should win this game outright. But for safety, take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

this spread is too small for Georgetown. Siena has lost all three games by at least 18 points (0-3 ATS). The Saints were given +3 and +3.5 in their two most recent games, and they lost by 20 and 28. Those were against Delaware and Yale, and Georgetown is a level above those teams. Fade Siena until the Saints show they can keep a game anywhere near close.

Rating: 2 Units

We won on a good Norfolk State team -- won the MEAC last year and a game in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament -- on Tuesday against William & Mary and I'm pretty surprised at this number at Bowling Green. The 1-2 Falcons were picked to finish sixth in the MAC and have a loss to Western Carolina, which isn't as good as Norfolk Sate. The SportsLine Projection Model has BGSU winning by 4. So does Sagarin. I will be quite shocked if the Spartans don't cover this spread and frankly think they can win outright.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cowboys have looked great to start this season, dominating on both ends of the floor. Dating back to last season, Wyoming has covered its last eight games. The Cowboys' defense has been spectacular, holding both teams they played under 50 points. The Huskies have struggled offensively to start the season, shooting 33.9 percent. Take Wyoming.

Rating: 2 Units

This spread is about five points too high for the Battle of the Palouse. Are you aware this is the longest continuous running rivalry in the country? It is now because the Ivy League didn't play last season. Wazzu hasn't won a game by more than 19 yet and those were at home. Idaho played both Long Beach State and Fresno State very tough in losses. Transfers Philip Pepple Jr. and Mikey Dixon have shined for the Vandals in the early going. It's a veteran team that is shooting 47.8 percent from behind the arc, ranking first in the Big Sky and 10th in the nation. Teams shoot better from deep at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Rutgers is 3-0 but has failed to cover the spread in each game. All three of its wins have come against teams ranked by KenPom No. 230 or lower. The Scarlet Knights have struggled to find their rhythm offensively ever since losing guard Jacob Young in the transfer portal to Oregon. DePaul enters as one of the nation's top rebounding teams and has four players averaging 13 points or better. Take the home underdog getting more than one possession.

Rating: 2 Units

UAB, the preseason C-USA favorite, is unbeaten but has faced UNC-Asheville, Morehead State and Division III program Rhodes College. Thus, I'm pretty surprised the Blazers in their first road game against a good Power 5 program are giving 2.5 points at South Carolina. One issue for the Blazers in the early going is rebounding and USC has a +45 rebounding edge through three games. Every model I can find has the Gamecocks winning outright -- SportsLine's by two points.

Rating: 2 Units

Fading Marquette didn't work out for me against Illinois, but I'll try again tonight with Ole Miss. The Rebels have a deep roster, they should commit fewer turnovers than the Illini did, and they're shooting 39.2 percent from deep. The Golden Eagles won't have the home crowd to fuel their pressure. Lay the small number.

Rating: 2 Units

My model is currently at a 57 percent win rate this year, 55-41-1 on the season and 38-20 (66 percent) in the last week. I preface this pick with the full track record because going against a huge team like Ohio State takes some guts and full trust in the model. The numbers are coming back with this game as a pick'em. This is going to be a contest that likely comes down to the final possessions, and in that situation, I'll take the home team with the points. Don't go any lower than +2.5 though.

Rating: 2 Units

The Friars are already battle-tested, going on the road to Wisconsin and coming home with a 63-58 win. They are now hosting a New Hampshire team that recently lost to Marquette, 75-70, but don't let the score fool you. In that loss, New Hampshire made 12-of-27 3-point attempts after going just 3-of-16 from downtown in its season opener. I expect a worse shooting performance tonight, which should allow the much better Providence team to pull away.

Rating: 2 Units

Let's grab the points with Utah Valley. The Wolverines are coming off a 12-point win against Pepperdine in which they were 3.5-point underdogs, and my model makes them one-half point favorites versus the Beach. This isn't the biggest edge, but there's a good chance Utah Valley can win outright, and we get to cash in if it's a one-point contest as well.

Rating: 2 Units

Love those pick'em games because if we can't pick a winner outright, what are we doing here? I've had success on Pepperdine dating to last season and will back the Waves again at home. The SportsLine Projection Model has them winning by 11. I don't think that's right. ESPN power rankings has Pepperdine by 8.9 points. Also seems high. Sagarin by 1.5 points. This is the first-ever meeting between Pepperdine and UC Davis.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinal did get beat by a strong Santa Clara team, but Valparaiso is going to be much easier to defeat. Stanford beat San Jose State by 14 points on Monday, and I think this opponent is similar on a talent level. The Beacons have yet to cover or win this season and allowed Illinois-Chicago to upset them in overtime on Saturday. Stanford should cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Central Arkansas is off to a cold start. It lost by 35 and 32 to unranked opponents in its first two games. Now, it has to face a Baylor team that is red-hot. KenPom ranks Baylor as the sixth-best team in the nation, while Central Arkansas is terrible on both ends of the court. It is 322nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 346th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Both Bears teams play with pace, which favors a blowout. Lay the points with Baylor.

Rating: 2 Units

ESPN has the Hawks by 2.2 points and Sagarin by 2.7. The Hawks are coming off a convincing 80-60 victory over NEC Champion Mount St. Mary's on Saturday. Drexel won this matchup by four last year, but the Hawks have won the past nine at home in the series.

Rating: 2 Units

Santa Clara has four guys averaging at least 14 points -- a lot of returning talent -- and ranks fifth nationally in shooting percentage (58.1) and eighth in assists per game (23.0). Nevada is solid but should not be giving 3.5 points on the road, and it wouldn't surprise me to see this number dip soon.

Rating: 2 Units

 Michigan 7-foot sophomore Hunter Dickinson gets his first real challenge tonight against Seton Hall, which features 6-10 Tyrese Samuel and 7-2 Ike Obiagu. The Pirates are relishing the underdog role as they visit Ann Arbor as part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games. They shouldn't be fazed too much by the hostile atmosphere: their average age is 21.3 years old. The Wolverines, of course, are loaded again, but they are shooting 56.5 percent from the free-throw line. That could come into play late. Grab the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spartans were named the team to beat in the MEAC after winning it last year and reaching the Big Dance and are 3-0 for the first time 1995-96. William & Mary has lost its first two games by double digits. These schools are about 45 miles apart on I-64 in Virginia. The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. I've seen this number rise to -3 already at some books so let's lock it in.

Rating: 2 Units

Normally, I might worry that this is the school's first road game of the year, but the Eagles have the nation's longest road win streak dating back to last season with 12 straight. D.J. Burns Jr. leads Winthrop in scoring at 23.0 ppg while shooting an absurd 72 percent. Middle Tennessee is 2-0 but has played two cupcakes. Winthrop is 16-5 ATS in its past 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Rating: 2 Units

The Boilermakers are loaded with talent, and according to KenPom, they rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They won their first two games by 29 and 25 points. Now they get to face the Wright State Raiders, who let up 96 points to Marshall in their last game. Lay the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Long Beach State is not a bad team -- it has a handful of good fifth-year seniors and added Joel Murray, a former Division II All-American, via transfer. He had 28 points for the Beach in the opener. I'm not saying UCLA is going to lose this game obviously, but it would be natural letdown spot off last Friday's big win in a potential Final Four preview vs. Villanova. For what it's worth, two seasons ago the Beach only lost by four at UCLA. I'd think they can stay within this big number.

Rating: 2 Units

I believe Providence has a more complete roster than Wisconsin, returning four starters from last year's team - including big man Nate Watson. The Badgers will have no answer for Watson, who is averaging 18 points, eight rebounds and two blocks so far this season. I think the Friars are more than capable of winning the game outright, so I love taking them with the points here.

Rating: 2 Units

Southern Miss could not find the basket from long distance against Louisiana on Friday. The Golden Eagles went 2-for-19 from 3-point range and and committed 25 turnovers while losing by 21 points. I think we are seeing a reaction to that performance in this line. I don't know if TCU is good enough to win by 15. The Horned Frogs only beat McNeese by 16 points in their season opener, and McNeese is consistently ranked among the bottom 15-20 teams in the nation. Grab Southern Miss and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

 I'll take the Citadel to give Presbyterian some trouble Monday. The Bulldogs just beat Pittsburgh outright by 15 when they were +10.5-point underdogs at the close. I think they will again outperform their expectations. The model agrees, making this game a pick'em. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Maryland transfer Darryl Morsell (23.5 ppg) is carrying Shaka Smart's new team, but the other Golden Eagles are 8 for 41 from 3-point range. Tonight they host a loaded Illinois team. The Illini are relishing the chance to show they go a lot deeper than Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Dosunmo now plays for the Chicago Bulls, while Cockburn is serving the final game of a suspension. Led by Coleman Hawkins, Jacob Grandison, Trent Frazier and Andre Curbelo, the Illini have held their first two opponents to 33.6 percent from the field. Lay the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Vanderbilt hosts a Texas State team that is coming off an 84-59 loss at LSU. The Commodores return two starters from last year's team - including Scotty Pippen Jr., who averaged 20.8 points last season and was a Preseason First Team All-SEC selection. In Vanderbilt's 91-72 season-opening win against Alabama State, it shot just 28.6 percent from 3-point range. Texas State allowed LSU to shoot 55 percent from beyond the arc, so I expect Vanderbilt to bounce back from long distance and cover at home.

Rating: 2 Units

This is an in-state rivalry game with Western Carolina coming off two straight underdog covers to open the season against Bowling Green and Wake Forest. I have ECU ranked right around the same tier as Wake Forest, and that game had an 18.5-point spread and was decided by 12. We should see a similar double-digit result, so this line is too soft. Take the favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

The Seminoles have dominated the Gators over the past years. They have covered the spread in the last eight matchups, including seven straight-up wins in a row. FSU put up 105 points against Penn, while Florida struggled in its first game. Florida State has more firepower and should continue the series dominance.

Rating: 2 Units

Colorado is a top-60 program, and New Mexico comes in below 250th in most rankings. We're getting a soft line because the Buffaloes almost lost to Montana State, needing overtime to secure a four-point win when they were 12-point favorites. I make this matchup -19 in favor of the Buffaloes. Take the favorites to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

Wouldn't be a legitimate capper if I didn't preview this potential Final Four preview with an awesome late-night tipoff from UCLA. Frankly, this spread shocks me. The Bruins are good but I think a tad overrated -- remember, they barely snuck into the NCAA Tournament last year and should have lost in the First Four. Also, the Bruins lost starting big man Cody Riley to a knee injury in the opener. He averaged 10.0 points and 5.4 rebounds last season. Villanova is a veteran team that might not get this many points the rest of the regular season. UCLA might win at home but no way I'm not taking this many points.

Rating: 2 Units

It's obviously impossible to know in-depth about every team in the country. Don't know a heck of a lot about Idaho State of the Big Sky -- the Bengals were picked to finish sixth in the conference and opened with a win over Montana State. Pepperdine lost its two best players off last year's team that won the College Basketball Invitational but has eight guys back and a couple of good freshmen in Houston Mallette and Mike Mitchell Jr. Lorenzo Romar has recruited well wherever he has been. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Waves winning by 12. Sagarin by about 9. ESPN power rankings by 10.5.

Rating: 2 Units

The Boilermakers are absolutely loaded and they proved it in their first game as they put up 96 points on 50 percent shooting. Even though the Sycamores won their first game, they didn’t look good. They turned the ball over at a very high rate and their defense was subpar. The Boilermakers should be able to put up 90-plus points again and cover.

Rating: 2 Units

Cornell lost all five starters from its 2019-20 team -- the Ivy League didn't play last season -- while Lafayette has four starters back off last season's team that was a Patriot League contender. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Leopards winning by 11. Not sure I agree with that but ESPN's power rankings have Lafayette 6.6 points better. The Big Red are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games.

Rating: 2 Units

he Northern Illinois Huskies were impressive in their season opener, winning by seven as big underdogs to Washington. They registered 14 blocks and held Washington below 30 percent shooting. Indiana should win but this is too many points.

Rating: 2 Units

This game is part of the Duke Veterans Day Weekend Showcase in Durham. The Camels are North Division favorites in the Big South; they returned 99 percent of their scoring and minutes played from last season. Hartford won the America East last season but is not as good defensively; this season they're picked to finish fourth. In their opener, the Hawks got 16 more free throws and still lost by 18 to Wagner. Look for Campbell to execute its Princeton offense effectively and cover.

Rating: 2 Units

San Jose State wasn't good last season but has a new coach in Tim Miles and five Power 5 transfers. Cal State Fullerton fell 84-77 at Santa Clara on Tuesday. Fullerton probably wins but this spread is a few points too high. The Titans are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games as favorites.

Rating: 2 Units

Look, I don't know much about NJIT -- their own laughable website doesn't even have a media guide or preview of the team this season. I do know the Highlanders were 7-12 last year and their best player, Zach Cooks, transferred to Hofstra. All the models are saying that NJIT is better than Merrimack, but I don't agree with what I do know. The Warriors reached the NEC title game last year and are one of only five teams in the country to return 99 percent of its point production from a season ago. Merrimack also has a game under its belt, beating something called Emerson (Ralph Waldo? Fittipaldi?) College on Tuesday. KenPom also ranks Merrimack quite a bit higher.

Rating: 2 Units

The Colonials won their first game despite a second-half collapse. They showed a lot of potential, especially on defense. They held the Red Flash to 38 percent shooting from the field. The Colonials' biggest issues were that they allowed 13 offensive rebounds and sent the Red Flash to the line 33 times. The Terrapins were a terrible free-throw shooting team last season. In their first game, they shot just 15 of 23 on free throws. George Washington's stingy defense should allow the Colonials to stay within the number.

Rating: 2 Units

KenPom ranks Vermont at 106 nationally and Northern Iowa 128. The Catamounts are annual contenders in the America East Conference -- they won their fifth straight regular-season title last year -- and had two players named to the preseason all-conference team in reigning America East Player of the Year Ryan Davis and Ben Shungu. I can't find a model that has UNI winning by more than four -- SportsLine's has it with a four-point margin. ESPN's power rankings have this as essentially a pick'em. Sagarin has UNI by 3.5 points.

Rating: 2 Units

It concerns me a bit that this spread dropped from an open of Pacific -3.5 to a pick'em ... I can't find any relevant injury news, etc., that might have led to that move. If this game were at Northern Colorado, I'd probably stay away as the Bears of the Big Sky bring back all five starters. However, it's in Hawaii and I think Pacific of the WCC should win in the school head coaching debut of Leonard Perry. Former coach Damon Stoudamire left this offseason to join the Celtics. Pacific brings back three key players from last year's squad and welcomes two good transfers in Luke Avdalovic and Alphonso Anderson, who was last year's Mountain West Sixth Man of the Year. KenPom ranks Pacific as the No. 125 team in the nation and Northern Colorado at 200, so I'd be stupid not to take a pick'em, right?

Rating: 2 Units

 Obviously it's a challenge handicapping a college basketball team's first game of the season -- this is part of the Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden -- and both these programs hugely underachieved last season. Duke does bring three starters back and should have the best player on the floor in freshman Paolo Banchero, very possibly the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. UK might be without one key transfer in Iowa's CJ Fredrick, a great three-point shooter. Then there's the Mike Krzyzewski factor. You think his players don't want to win Coach K's final-ever season opener? Tuesday marks Coach K's 1,400th game as Duke's head coach. The Blue Devils are 39-2 in season openers under Krzyzewski, including winning 21 straight. Welcome back college hoops!

Rating: 2 Units

This spread seems quite high considering it will be a bit of a transition for Loyola early in the season after losing excellent coach Porter Moser to Oklahoma, although his former assistant Drew Valentine takes over. Ramblers star Cameron Krutwig is now playing in Belgium. Coppin State is a solid MEAC program that hung within 10 at Duke last year and tied for the MEAC regular-season title. I'd think the Eagles can manage to only lose by 30.

Rating: 2 Units

Needless to say, who wins this game isn't in question but Jackson State was a good SWAC team last year and was picked to finish third in the league this season. The Illini probably will sleepwalk a bit through this one with Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year Kofi Cockburn out due to suspension and senior guard Trent Frazier in question with a knee injury. The Tigers were 5-1 ATS in their final six road games last year. They can stay within 26 or so.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yellow Jackets lost ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright and ACC Defensive Player of the Year Jose Alvarado, which has created holes to fill but also some value. Senior Michael Devoe (15.0 ppg) has unlimited range and will lead this team after winning ACC Tournament MVP honors. Former USC transfer Jordan Usher is a 6-7 defensive whiz. Deebo Coleman and Miles Kelly are top-100 recruits, evidence that Josh Pastner is attracting better talent. The RedHawks return everyone from a squad that went 9-8 in the MAC. They rely on their smallish backcourt for scoring, but could struggle versus Tech's length.

Rating: 2 Units

The tough Ohio Valley Conference competition wore Belmont down last season. The Bruins failed to cover their last five games and missed the NCAA Tournament. But all those starters are back from the team that dominated the regular season. Ohio had some March Madness success but lost its best player to the NBA. Take Belmont to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

Thanks to Trayce Jackson-Davis, Mike Woodson's first season at Indiana may end in an NCAA Tournament berth. But this is too many points, even against a lower-tier MAC team. Noah Farrakhan, a highly touted recruit who transferred from East Carolina, will be the key for new coach Stan Heath. He erupted for 27 points in a 74-69 exhibition road win over Oakland. He'll beat defenders off the dribble and set up his teammates. Take the points.

Rating: 3 Units

Gonzaga survived a miraculous effort from UCLA on Saturday night, as Jalen Suggs closed a terrific game with an all-time shot at the buzzer. The Bulldogs held off a UCLA offense that made an incredible amount of mid-range shots and produced 1.22 points per possession. Gonzaga was not at their best, making 7-of-21 three point attempts while missing eight additional free throws. Gonzaga’s ability to win such a game should bode well for their ability to close out their perfect season. Gonzaga’s 6’10 standout Drew Timme will continue to lead the way against a Baylor attack that is headlined by a group of guards. While the Bears backcourt is sensational, their frontcourt components lack a bit when stacking up next to Timme on this stage. The starting duo Flo Thamba and Mark Vital have shown to be the weak link of the Baylor chain this postseason. Timme has rolled through the NCAA Tournament, scoring at least 22 points in the last four games, converting on 70.1% of two point attempts during that stretch. Gonzaga’s guards are also well suited to negate the strength of Baylor’s defense as well. Gonzaga ranks 34th-best in turnover rate, while the Bears defense ranks 3rd in generating turnovers. Without doing so, Baylor’s defense only grades out as adequate, raking 113th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Gonzaga’s perfect season should be completed with Timme controlling the interior and the Bulldog guards keeping the offense humming.

Rating: 5 Unit Final Four Game of the Week

Gonzaga has been full throttle throughout the NCAA Tournament, defeating Oklahoma by 16 points, Creighton by 18 and USC by 19. All three of those teams certainly would have been favored over this UCLA team before the Bruins magical run. While the Bruins have caught lighting in a bottle and are playing well, their lack of explosiveness on offense is going to make for an uphill climb against the Zags. UCLA’s Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez have been tasked with carrying the load for the Bruins, with marginal help from elsewhere. Gonzaga on the other hand has the luxury of multiple players who can create and make shots. Remarkably, Gonzaga now owns three of the Top 10 players in KenPom’s Player of the Year race. That trio of Drew Timme, Jalen Suggs and Corey Kispert will prove to simply be too much to keep up with. As best as he will try, Mick Cronin will be the next coach in line who unsuccessfully attempts to slow the tempo against Mark Few’s bunch. Look for UCLA’s three point defense to run out of luck, as the Bruins have been fortunate to see opposing teams during this run make only 27.7% of attempts from downtown.

Rating: 3 Units

We didn’t think Michigan guards would ever get comfortable on the perimeter against Florida State. Apparently, neither did Wolverines’ head coach Juwan Howard, his coaching staff and the players, because they just went into the paint for 50 of their 76 points while Leonard (Zzzz) Hamilton took another one of his frequent bench naps on company time. With 50 points in the paint and 15 on free throws, Michigan needed to make only 3 of 11 three-point attempts for a comfy-cozy win in which they allowed Florida State to get to the free-throw line for only 6 attempts. But this is a tougher defensive prep for both sides with only one day between games. Both offenses are good with ball security. Michigan’s 2-point defense (42.7%) is the best UCLA has faced. The Bruins were 0-2 vs. USC, who ranked four spots lower than Michigan’s #8 national rank in that category.

Rating: 3 Units

Many teams have been flummoxed by USC’s length and zone defense this season, and that has carried the Trojans to the Elite 8. However, they’ll now have to deal with the most skilled and diverse offense in the nation when taking on the Zags. Gonzaga is making 37.3% of three-point attempts this season and have multiple options to cycle through the middle of the Trojans’ zone. Drew Timme serves as an excellent option to be a decision maker, while they can surround the big man with quality shooting. Gonzaga has simply looked like they’re on a different level than anyone this year, as even Oklahoma and Creighton played respectable games and still ended up on the losing side by 17 and 18 point margins. USC would need to be at their best again to have a chance of staying within single digits.

Rating: 2 Units

Arkansas has had a bad habit of falling behind early all season long. In fact, the last five Razorback wins have all come after trailing by double digits. However, if that trend continues, there will be no recovering from it against an elite Baylor team. The Bears have the ability to shut down a fairly uncreative Arkansas offense and take advantage in transition. Perhaps no duo of guards left in the country are as dangerous on both ends as Baylor’s Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell. Arkansas has had an advantage against most teams with their ability to go small, that will not be the case against the Bears. The Bears are in a position to thrive in a small-ball game.

Rating: 4 Unit Midwest Region Play of the Day

Houston is likely to again face a bunch of zone defense when they take on the upstart Oregon State team. Houston has seen nearly every type of zone imaginable after having played in a zone heavy American Athletic Conference and having just taken down Syracuse’s 2-3 attack. The Cougars will again attack the offensive glass, where they’re elite, as the Beavers rank 228th in defensive rebound rate. Houston guard DeJon Jarreau is also a terrific candidate to shut down Oregon State leading scorer, Ethan Thompson. Jarreau frustrated and shut down Syracuse’s Buddy Boeheim on Saturday, and his leadership continues to lead the way for the Cougars. Along with Jarreau, Houston guards Marcus Sasser and Quentin Grimes have proven to give Houston enough perimeter ability to successfully create offense that is efficient enough given their prowess on defense and on the glass.

Rating: 4 Unit West Region Play of the Day

USC is proving to be too big and too athletic for many teams to contend
with. The Trojans were just that in their last meeting against Oregon on February 22nd. Even without starting forward Isaiah Mobley during that contest, the Trojans won by a score of 72-58. USC allowed just 40.0% on two-point attempts for the Ducks. USC currently owns the nation’s best interior defense, and look for that to carry them forward to the Elite 8. In a dominant win over Kansas on Monday, the Mobley brothers, both Evan and Isaiah, totaled 27 points, 21 rebounds and four blocked shots.

Rating: 3 Units

Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton maintained all season long that his team had another level to get to, and it appears the Seminoles are starting to do so. Florida State didn’t always bring defensive intensity throughout the year, but are doing so now. “That’s just kind of what we were supposed to do the whole year,” said center Balsa Koprivica. “It’s always our emphasis. But now everything is on the line, and it’s win or go home. We’re just all focused, talking to each other. And this is what we have to do to win these types of games. Because not every game is going to be a good shooting night.” Florida State’s overall length and athleticism will cause fits for Michigan’s more traditional lineup.

Rating: 2 Units

Gonzaga, 28-0, cruised through the season without being a serious participant in basketball’s mass movement towards being heavy on the three-point shot. They average 7.6 makes on 20.4 attempts per game, below average in volume (but an above-average 37.5% in accuracy). They’ve zeroed in from inside the arc, but not with the frowned-upon 2-point jumpers. At a high 75.1 possessions per game, the ’Zags have attempted 48.7% of their shots near the rim, sending an amazing 72.5% of them through the net with a top 30 free-throw rate attached. They’ll get their threes on hoop and harm and put opponents in foul trouble while doing it. 34.9% of their shots have come in transition, where their Effective Field Goal % (factoring both twos and threes) is a national-high 65.9%. Creighton isn’t built to slow down opponents into half-court games and if they were, there’s the matter of Gonzaga’s national-high 58.4% Effective Field Goal % in non-transition.

Rating: 3 Unit NIT Championship Cash

Mississippi State is again expected to be without starting forward Tolu Smith, making the Bulldogs a bit smaller and without one main offensive option against a swarming Memphis defense. Memphis has put things together down the stretch this season, as their only two losses since February 1st have come in two narrow defeats against Houston. The Tigers defense is relentless, ranking 28th-best nationally in turnover rate. Their pressure will create a major
problem for a Bulldogs offense that has turned the ball over on 22.2% of possessions, ranking 318th. Ben Howland noted the challenges of Memphis’ defense on Saturday, likening it to Arkansas’ ‘40 minutes of hell’ from the early
1990’s.

Rating: 3 Units

Houston will have a full week to prepare for Syracuse’s 2-3 zone, and the Cougars won’t be unfamiliar with such a look. Houston played against a bunch of zone this season in the American Athletic Conference, as there are several teams in that conference that opt to play such a style. Houston has capable guards and their frontcourt is relentless in attacking the offensive glass. Houston ranks 2nd-best nationally in offensive rebound rate, an area where Syracuse’s defense always struggles. Consider that Houston is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Rating: 3 Units

Oral Roberts, a double digit underdog, have already shown once this season that they belong on the same floor as Arkansas. Oral Roberts held an early 12 point second half lead on the road at Arkansas back on December 20th. While the Golden Eagles did fall by an 11 point margin, they did so despite shooting 8-for-29 from long distance. Furthermore, star guard Max Abmas had an off game, playing just 32 minutes due to foul trouble and going 4-of-11 from the field. Consider that Oral Roberts is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Rating: 4 Unit South Region Play of the Day

This will be Villanova’s first real test without point guard Collin Gillepsie, and a terrific Bears backcourt is waiting to pounce. Baylor’s Davion Mitchell is one of the best defensive players in the country and will be ready to hound Villanova’s replacements at the guard spot. Baylor ranks 3rd-best nationally in turnover rate on the defensive end and has the ability to disrupt the Wildcats offense. The Bears backcourt is too good, too versatile and too experienced to not handle this mismatch. Villanova’s only chance will come from post player Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to dominate inside, but Baylor’s physicality will provide a strong test.

Rating: 2 Units

In hindsight, Wayne Tinkle was always a good one-and-done NCAA Tournament underdog when he coached Montana. But he and his Eager Beavers have really outdone themselves recently. They enter the Sweet 16 with five straight wins as the outright underdog. What were the odds of such a run? Oh, less than 1%. If they advance to the Elite Eight, then they’ll have pulled off a greater than 1,000-1 shot of six straight outright wins taking two or three possessions worth of points. They are an over-the-top 16-4 ATS as the dog.

NIT Game of the Week

Memphis has improved considerably since the start of February, with their only two losses during the last seven weeks coming at the hands of Houston. Even then, the Tigers were competitive, covering both games against the Cougars. Penny Hardaway has stated that his defensive system is now fully installed, and it’s paid dividends for his Memphis team. The Tigers defense now ranks 2nd-best nationally in defensive efficiency rating.

Rating: 3 Unit NIT Play of the Day

Richmond will at least be without starting center Grant Golden, and starting guard Blake Francis remains as a game-time decision. The Spiders will have to deal with a physical and big Mississippi State team without Golden. The Bulldogs should own the rebounding battle as well as the paint. Mississippi State will be led on the offensive end by starting guard D.J. Stewart, who produced 20 points and six assists in an impressive six-point victory over Saint Louis in the opening round of the NIT.

Rating: 3 Units

It took a talented Pepperdine squad some time to come to life in both of their opening CBI games, but eventually their talent was able to take over in wins against Bellarmine and Longwood. Now situated in a title game, the Waves should be motivated from the start. Pepperdine big man Kessler Edwards has proven to be a mismatch this week, as the 6’8 junior has totaled 50 points in 65 minutes through two games. With the pair of Edwards and guard Colbey Ross, the Waves will have the two best players on the floor on Wednesday night.

Rating: 3 Unit CBI Tournament Play of the Day

Pepperdine didn’t show much excitement to be in the CBI Tournament
for much of Monday’s game, trailing an inferior Longwood team at halftime. While the Waves did wake up in the second half, they won’t be able to rely on their talent to bail them out today against Bellarmine. Bellarmine is exceptionally coached and will have an advantage on the sideline with Scott Davenport going against Lorenzo Romar. Bellarmine’s precision offense will prove to be a tricky prep for Romar and his staff with such a short turnaround.

Rating: 3 Units

Points will be hard to come by for the Jayhawks when they take on one of the nation’s best defenses. USC ranks 10th-best in defensive efficiency and 2nd-best when it comes to defending inside the arc. 7’0 star freshman Evan Mobley has been a difference maker this year and will own a sizable advantage against Kansas’ David McCormack. Kansas ranks 181st in finishing from two-point range, a major problem when going against Mobley and the Trojans.

Rating: 2 Units

Maryland, a two possession underdog, will lean on their defense to hang around during Monday’s contest against Alabama. The Terrapins are exceptional at making opposing offenses go deep into the shot clock, something Alabama would prefer not to do. Maryland’s defense ranks 20th in the average of length of defensive possessions, at 18.4 seconds. Forcing Alabama to execute in the half court should help the Terps chances.

Rating: 2 Units

Bellarmine was one of the better stories of the college basketball season before being tripped up late. The Knights lost in the Atlantic Sun Conference  Tournament to Stetson, but the Knights will still be motivated to play in their first Division I Tournament after moving up from Division II this season. The Knights offense is terrific, and their spacing and precision will be difficult for Army to prepare for. Army comes into the CBI Tournament struggling, having lost five of seven games.

Rating: 3 Unit CBB Play of the Day

Florida State’s athleticism and versatility on the defensive end allows the Seminoles to switch constantly, creating a roadblock for Colorado’s motion offense. Georgetown proved not to be able to guard Colorado on Saturday, practically ignoring the three-point line. That won’t be the case against a Florida State defense better equipped to utilize their size and speed. Junior RaiQuan Gray continues to impress for Florida State, as the swiss army knife forward totaled 17 points, seven rebounds and three assists in an opening road win over UNC Greensboro.

Rating: 4 Units

Creighton hasn’t looked like the team they were for the majority of the season, as the Blue Jays were fortunate to advance out of round one. UC Santa Barbara let one get away against Creighton, failing to convert in the final seconds. Creighton is likely to get pushed to the limit again on Monday against underdog Ohio. The Bobcats have a point guard in Jason Preston who is fully capable of going toe to toe with Creighton’s Marcus Zegarowski. Ohio’s offense can hang with anyone, as the Bobcats rank 15th nationally in effective field goal percentage.

Rating: 5 Unit CBB Game of the Week

UCLA impressed on Saturday night, winning wire to wire against BYU. Mick Cronin’s group defended at a high level and former Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang paced the offense with 27 points. The Bruins catch a bit of a break here as Texas failed miserably against Abilene Christian. The Wildcats pulled off the upset despite shooting 29.8% from the floor. That type of performance won’t be near good enough to advance again.

Rating: 3 Units

Oregon State, which won the Pacific-12 Conference tournament to earn an NCAA berth, never trailed in upsetting the Volunteers. Roman Silva scored a career-high 16 points for the Beavers, making all eight of his field-goal attempts. Jarod Lucas added 14 points, Ethan Thompson 13 and Zach Reichle 10. It was the Beavers' first NCAA Tournament victory since 1982. They're in the tournament for just the second time since 1990. It has been quite a run for Oregon State, which was picked to finish last in the Pac-12's preseason media poll. The Beavers shot 48.2 from the field percent in their first-round victory and registered 20 assists on 27 field goals. They built a 33-19 halftime lead, and Tennessee never got closer than 10 points in the second half. Consider that Oregon State is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog.

Rating: 5 Unit Tournament Game of the Week

It required less than one minute of game action for the second-seeded Houston Cougars to face their first measure of adversity in this NCAA Tournament. Senior DeJon Jarreau, unanimously described as the leader of the veteran Cougars, was lost to a right hip pointer and spent the remainder of the game rooting from the sideline with heating pads stuffed in his shorts. Without Jarreau spearheading their offense and defense -- Jarreau was named American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year -- the Cougars (25-3) appeared to be a rudderless ship for most of the first half against Cleveland State. Jarreau's status for Sunday is unclear. But what Houston received in his absence, notably from forwards Reggie Chaney, Justin Gorham, Brison Gresham and Fabian White Jr., eased any frayed nerves. Defensively, the Cougars limited Cleveland State to one field goal over the first 10 minutes of the second half. Houston also grabbed 16 offensive rebounds. Consider that Houston is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 Sunday games.

Rating: 4 Unit Mismatch of the Day

When it comes to shooters and scorers, there might not be anyone hotter than Syracuse's Buddy Boeheim, the coach's son. Boeheim scored 30 points as Syracuse (now 17-9) beat San Diego State 78-62 on Friday, making 11 of 15 shots from the field, including 7 of 10 from 3-point range. He has back-to-back 30-point games -- he had 31 in an ACC tournament loss to Virginia -- and is averaging 26.2 points over his past five outings. Syracuse is trying to reach the Sweet 16 for the third time as a double-digit seed. The Orange made a Final Four run as a 10th seed in 2016 and won two games as a No. 11 seed in 2018. Consider that West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and  1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Rating: 3 unit Play of the Day

Baylor continues to move further away from their mid-Feb. program pause. The Bears have slowly shaken off the rust and clearly still do have another gear that they can hit this March. The Bears are exceptional on the perimeter, with Jared Butler leading the way on offense and Davion Mitchell doing so on defense. Mitchell is fully capable of shutting down Wisconsin guard D’Mitrik Trice, leaving the Badgers offense handicapped. If there’s a weakness for this Baylor team, it likely is their interior defense, which isn’t likely to be exploited by Wisconsin (#286, 46.5% two-pointers.

Rating: 2 Units

Illinois matches up favorably with Loyola Chicago, as 7’0 big man Kofi Cockburn will give the Ramblers’ Cameron Krutwig his toughest test yet. Krutwig, the Missouri Valley Player of the Year, has always had a size and talent advantage against opposing frontcourts but that is no longer the case. Cockburn’s presence paired with the Illini’s explosive scoring attack on the perimeter will likely be too much for the Ramblers to keep pace with.

Rating: 2 Units

UCLA has stumbled down the stretch as the Bruins have made little progress on the defensive end in year two under Mick Cronin. The Bruins rank 198th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and that’s a bad mix when paired with BYU’s precision based offense.