Rating: 5 Units

Missouri is one of the most veteran laden teams in the tournament and that should bode well for the Tigers. One of their seniors, big man Jeremiah Tilmon, is a mismatch for an Oklahoma team that often prefers to play smaller. Tilmon will make the Sooners defense uncomfortable as they try to combat one of the SEC’s best post players. Oklahoma has also been weakened on the perimeter, as it was announced starting guard De’Vion Harmon will not be available this weekend.

Rating: 3 Units

It’s another “Escape from the Big Ten.” We’ll see how the conference’s second-tier teams like Wisconsin, Rutgers, these Terps, and yes, even Michigan State, do after going through their regular-season gauntlet of games against highly ranked opponents. Quicker than we thought he could after the Huskies spent some seasons tossing bricks in The American conference, UConn head coach Danny Hurley has wiped away some tarnish from the brand name. But the Huskies are pretty much a “defense-to-offense” team which, as the favorite, needs to prove it can do a better job at it than Maryland has been doing with the same approach. “We got some great length with Eric Ayala, Hakim Hart, Aaron Wiggins, Darryl Morsell, Donta Scott,” said head coach Mark Turgeon recently. It’ll be surprising if the Terps allow the Huskies to get into an open-floor flow, not surprising if UConn players stand around in the halfcourt waiting for James Bouknight to score.

Rating: 3 Unit Play of the Day

The Gauchos emphasis on the defensive end of the floor aligns well for an upset of the higher seeded Blue Jays. Santa Barbara ranks 15th-best in limiting three-point attempts and they have the ability to slow the game and keep Creighton in the half court. Creighton has not looked the same as the controversy surrounding head coach Greg McDermott continues to loom over the team.

Rating: 4 Units

While talent is on the side of LSU in this matchup, coaching and composure resides on the side of the Bonnies. St. Bonaventure head coach Mark Schmidt will look to slow the game down and force an impatient LSU team to execute in the half court. Schmidt has said if the score is in the 60’s, he likes his team’s chances.

Rating: 2 Units

Eastern Washington is a sizable underdog with a chance to compete against a Kansas team that continues to have shuffling parts. The Jayhawks will be trying to integrate big man David McCormack back into the lineup after being away from the team due to COVID-19, while also now being without starting forward Jalen Wilson.

Rating: 3 Unit Mismatch of the Day

Georgetown has simply turned into a different team since Patrick Ewing changed his starting lineup following a program pause. The insertion of Chudier Bile has made the Hoyas bigger, more athletic and more tenacious on the defensive end. Since that move, Georgetown has compiled a record of 11-3 against the spread. The Hoyas run through the Big East Tournament was not a fluke, as they were playing solid basketball before that stretch.

Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Day

Villanova has not looked nearly the same since losing starting point guard and leader, Collin Gillespie. The Wildcats have lost games to Providence and Georgetown, as they’re trying to reconfigure their offense on the fly. Wildcats head coach Jay Wright likened this Winthrop team to a Creighton team that they’ve struggled with. The Eagles will fly up and down the court and will not be at a size disadvantage that many smaller programs face this time of year. Winthrop owns one of the more unique players in the country in 6’7 guard Chandler Vaudrin, who ranks 8th nationally in assist rate.

Rating: 2 Units

Syracuse’s 2-3 zone defense can be difficult to prepare for in a tournament setting for teams who have seen limited amounts of zone during the course of the year. Said Aztecs head coach Brian Dutcher, “We’ve seen very limited zone all year,” Dutcher said. “I think Air Force tried to zone and they played a matchup and some switching. We haven’t played against a 2-3 zone, the entire season.”

Rating: 2 Units

Drexel was a surprise winner of the Colonial Conference Tournament, prevailing after a regular season conference record of 4-5. The Dragons will take a major step up in weight class against the Illini now. Drexel relies on their interior play on the offensive end of the floor, but now will be matched with one of the most stout interiors across the country, as 7’0 sophomore Kofi Cockburn mans the interior for the Illini.

Rating: 3 Unit Play of the Day

Virginia Tech and head coach Mike Young will put the brakes on the Gators, as the Hokies own one of the most stout transition defenses in the country. Young recently compared starting guard Wabissa Bede to a brick wall, and he’ll be responsible for slowing down Florida’s Tre Mann. When forced to operate in the half court, the Gators are not nearly as efficient. Virginia Tech’s advantage on the sideline will push them through to the second round.

Rating: 2 Units

UCLA has fallen apart down the stretch, having lost four games in a row including an opening round loss to Oregon State in the Pac 12 Tournament. The Bruins and Mick Cronin now have to deal with Michigan State, which showed signs of life throughout the month February and March. The Spartans collected wins against Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan while competing in a strong Big 10. UCLA’s Cronin has not impressed in March, compiling a 4-9 record against the spread in the NCAA Tournament.

Rating: 3 Unit A-10 Play of the Day

St. Bonaventure enters Sunday with an experienced team, prepared to handle the pressure of VCU. The Bonnies have stability in the backcourt with Kyle Lofton and Dominick Welch, who have helped the Bonnies rank 79th-best in turnover rate nationally. St. Bonaventure has a group of juniors and a bit more experience than VCU, fueled by past failures. “The whole entire time leading up to this game, I have been seeing stuff on TV about how Saint Louis won that game (2019),” Osun Osunniyi said. “That’s just giving us extra motivation.” The Bonnies will lead the way, having held four straight teams below 0.88 points per possession.

Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day

Following the blowout win against Mississippi State, the Crimson Tide covered by the hair of a rattled-in free throw in the final seconds vs. offensively challenged Tennessee yesterday. LSU is not offensively challenged. Quite the contrary. Although Alabama has put up big points in many blowout victories, LSU has been the more offensively efficient side, overall. The Tigers have won nearly 70% of their games straight-up and are taking two possessions worth of points – the kind of commodity that we are happy to pay our price for before the chips, er, shots, fall where they may. Sure, we see, “Alabama, 105-75” and “Alabama, 78-60” over LSU in the regular season. In the first, Alabama set an SEC record for three-pointers made in a game, 23. In the second, in the words of LSU head coach Will Wade: “We went 1-for-17 for a stretch there in the second half. We’re just not capable of overcoming that, especially on the road against a very good team.” Right. Re-set to 0-0, take the points with the double-revenge dog averaging 82.2 ppg

Rating: 3 Unit Big West Play of the Day

Let’s try this again. Get up off the mat and punch back. Last night’s embarrassing result in the Cal-Irvine game was triggered by six Riverside guards shooting a combined 9-for-33. Way to go. Way to be there. Way to show up in the big game. Geez. Leading 41-28 at the half, Irvine defense wasn’t going to allow a comeback. Double-revenge is a dish best served cold. Way back on Dec. 27-28, the Anteaters beat the Gauchos 75-56 and 73-69 in the first two games of Big West Conference season. That’s as cold as an in-season revenge dish can be served. UCSB has lost one (1) game since. As noted yesterday, Irvine’s most experienced players don’t handle the ball very much. Cal-Santa Barbara’s most experienced players are senior guards Jaquori McLaughlin and Devearl Ramsey, a couple of ball-security experts who combined for 9.0 assists per game on a team with a 16.4-11.1 Assist/Turnover rate. They may not be the world’s greatest-shooting three-point team, but 35.0% isn’t shabby and they can stretch the floor enough to create space for Amadou Sow to go to work inside.

Rating: 2 Units

Stansbury, for a championship? Well, maybe. But he’ll have to get through us to get it. “The toughest team always wins,” is what North Texas head coach Grant McCasland often tells his team. Being tougher than La. Tech yesterday was testament to the NoTex toughness because it was 40 minutes of contested baskets against an underrated defensive squad. There will be more open floor for the Mean Green in this game. Going 15 rounds with UAB yesterday may have taken a just enough out of Western Kentucky. In the end, Charles Bassey’s idea of rebounding was attempting to tip it to teammates, and being glad the big one that he couldn’t get to went out of bounds off a UAB player. The guy they want to play through looked a little gassed and off on his left leg.

Rating: 2 Units

Florida State’s size and depth will pose a major issue for a smaller Georgia Tech team that often is limited to just a six or seven man rotation. Florida State center Balsa Koprivica has rapidly improved, going for 17 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks against a stout North Carolina interior on Friday night. The Seminoles ability to disrupt smaller teams on the perimeter due to their  athleticism will be a factor when taking on a pair of diminutive guards in Georgia Tech’s Jose Alvarado and Michel DeVoe.

Rating: 2 Units

Georgetown, a three possession underdog, continued their run in New York on Friday, knocking off Seton Hall. The Hoyas’ defense continues to lead the way, a unit that grades out as one of the 15 best nationally since early February. Patrick Ewing noted that the change to move 6’8 forward Chudier Bile into the starting lineup once they returned from a program pause this season has changed the team. Bile has brought a physicality along with the size that Georgetown needed. The Hoyas were the last Big East school to get on campus this season and it’s taken time to gel, but it has all started to come together over the last few weeks.

Rating: 3 Unit Mountain West Play of the Day

San Diego State will be out for payback, after falling to Utah State in a back-to-back series in January. The Aztecs did not have their best player, Matt Mitchell, available for the second meeting and that cost the Aztecs in a big way. With Mitchell on the floor along with sharpshooter Jordan Schakel, the Azetcs have the shooting to space out and take advantage of a bigger Utah State team that prefers to pack the paint. Schakel and Mitchell combined for 39 points and six mad threes on Friday night against Nevada.

Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day

Arkansas continues to roll through the SEC, having not lost a conference game since January 16th. The Hogs are clicking on both ends of the floor and have the versatility to slow down a potent LSU offense. Arkansas starting forward Justin Smith is an ideal matchup to go against LSU big man Trendon Watford. Eric Musselman’s ability to adjust on the fly with schemes should bode well for a quick turnaround into Saturday. In the last meeting against LSU, Arkansas limited LSU to 43.8% shooting from two-point range, as Watford shot 4-for-13 inside the arc.

Rating: 2 Units

With rest, Alabama rendered utter destruction upon unrested Mississippi State yesterday. Freshman guard Joshua Primo was injured in the game but they have guys. Tennessee is easy to knock for their inconsistency, but they were 5-5 in “Quad 1” games to Alabama’s 6-4, the difference having been the Tide’s 71-63 road win way back on Jan. 3. Vols’ head coach Rick Barnes pulled no punches with his senior forward John Fulkerson afterward, at least to the media: “We knew they were going to try to drive and make him play defense. Offensively, he never established what we needed to get done. We got the ball there, but he went three-for-eight from the free throw line. That is tough when you got a guy you’re counting on to give you something around the rim or get you there.” Tough love! Jaden Springer was unavailable due to injury for much of the game, questionable foul trouble took away Tennessee’s best defender Yves Pons for a while, and a ref on the other side of the floor hit Rick Barnes with a technical for the sin of Barnes correctly arguing a bad call against point guard Santi Vescovi, which left Tennessee without a true point guard for the last four minutes of the first half.

Rating: 3 Unit Big West Play of the Day

The most experienced players on Irvine don’t handle the ball a whole heck of a lot. The Anteaters are a favorite that has scored less than 1.0 points per possession in conference play. After 4-19 Cal Poly was able to hang with them for 40 minutes last night, Irvine seems to be asking for somebody with better offensive capabilities to come along and beat them, kind of like Northeastern in the CAA when that team got beat by Drexel. Cal-Riverside is the Saint Mary’s of SoCal, with an infusion of Aussie and New Zealanders and, in fact, a former Saint Mary’s player, 7’1”, 250 center Jock Perry. Usually, every Highlander is a three-point shooter including Perry (and they all have percentages to respect), which can lure Anteater rim protector Brad Greene away from the hoop to begin an unraveling of their normally good defense.

Rating: 3 Unit AAC Play of the Day

Facing Memphis is a tall order for a Central Florida team that has proven to not be able to handle pressure this season. The Knights turned the ball over 33.3% and 29.6% of the time in two meetings against the Tigers this season. Memphis head coach Penny Hardaway has noted that his full defensive system is now installed, as a COVID-19 pause helped his team implement it, “The two long pauses gave us the time to do that. Now we’re definitely way more prepared to shut team downs.” Memphis appears highly motivated to find itself in a rematch with Houston on Saturday, as the Tigers lost on a buzzer beater finish against the Cougars last weekend.

Rating: 2 Units

LSU is a difficult matchup for Ole Miss, as the Tigers are plenty capable of dissecting the 1-3-1 zone defense of the Rebels. In the first meeting between the two teams, the Tigers produced 1.07 points per possession. Impressively, LSU did that without star guard Cam Thomas, who logged just four minutes before exiting due to injury. LSU’s offense displayed its depth in that outing, as the Tigers are the nation’s 5th-best offense nationally in efficiency. Tigers head coach Will Wade noted this week that his program is well aware of the struggles they’ve had in the SEC Tournament and it’s been a focus and a goal this year to correct that.

Rating: 3 Unit Big East Play of the Day

Huskies head coach Dan Hurley downplayed the status of James Bouknight on Thursday, saying it was only cramping and he’ll be ready for Friday. With Bouknight back in the fold, the Huskies are now 11-2 against the spread and UConn seems intent on sending a message to their new conference this week. Said starting wing Tyrese Martin, “We’re a different team. We’re at full strength. We’re probably one of the hottest teams in the country right now. So to beat us, you’re going to have to do a lot of things. And I don’t think that there’s a team right now that’s going to do that.” The physicality that the Huskies play with will be difficult for Creighton to match.

Rating: 2 Units

Iowa and Wisconsin just met on Sunday, which ended in a narrow 77-73 Iowa victory. The Hawkeyes should be encouraged that their next meeting on Friday results in a more comfortable margin. Iowa shot 65.6% from two-point range against the Badgers, but made only 7-of-23 three-point attempts. Wisconsin played a near perfect game, turning the ball over just seven times, while making each of their free throws and 37.5% of three-point attempts. It’s unlikely the Badgers can replicate such a performance, and even that was not good enough.

Rating: 2 Units

Florida State remained idle on Thursday, and Seminoles leader Rai-Quan Gray said the additional time off was helpful. “I think it is a recharged group. ... We met a little bit, and had some good practices, and we got back to who we are, back to the basics.” The Seminoles’ size and athleticism will be a match for a North Carolina team that continues to simply lean on their size and physicality to get by. Florida State can match the Tar Heels in that department and force North Carolina to execute.

Rating: 2 Units

Eager Beavers get a second chance at the Ducks after Oregon rained a season-high 15 three-pointers against them in Sunday’s 80-67 win at Corvallis. Said OSU head coach Wayne Tinkle, “We got off to a slow start offensively. The whole objective was to pound it inside, and I think once they got a little bit of a lead, we thought we were going to just shoot our way back into it, rather than staying on plan.” Live and learn, baby.

Rating: 3 Units

“You can’t let Missouri play downhill,” said one SEC head coach, Kermit Davis of Ole Miss, who beat the Tigers twice. Meaning, don’t let them get into an up-tempo groove by winning the boards and triggering transition. Plenty of  Georgia’s losing scores indicate that the Crean game can’t get played like that. Their defensive rebounding rate is one of the nation’s worst. The overall experience edge for Missouri is strong and while the Tigers aren’t a strong three-point shooting team, neither is Georgia

Rating: 2 Units

We frequently say that opposing defensive players can just hold their ground and watch Saint Peter’s run their lengthy offensive sets that create nice open looks before they miss the jump-shot or fail on the lay-up. Therefore, with two possessions worth of points as a head start, against a low-possession opponent, we’ll take Rider on two days’ rest since their first round win.

Rating: 2 Units

Despite a loss to close the season, Tulane head coach Ron Hunter left encouraged. “Our defense in the last week-and-a-half has been awful, and then we got back to who we were in the second half. We played about as well as we can play in the second half.” Tulane will now take on a Tulsa team that previously knocked off by a score of 58-48 on the road. The Green Wave’s tricky zone defense perplexed a limited Tulsa offense.

Rating: 2 Units

As a team with better-than-average percentages on three-pointers offensively and defensively, against an opponent with lower-than-average percentages in both, and with NoCo also being decent at offering resistance in the paint against a Southern Utah squad that likes to do business inside the arc despite not being very big, the unrested, underdog Bears seem like worthy adversary against the #1 seed. The favorite’s tallest starter is 6’7”. Their 6’11” Ivan Madunic has been coming off the bench for about 17-18 minutes to score anywhere from 0 to 4 points – yawn.

Rating: 2 Units

Villanova had its work cut out without senior point guard Collin Gillespie, but now the Wildcats have also lost starting shooting guard Justin Moore for the time being. Moore was set to take over point guard duties, but severely sprained his ankle against Providence. That resulted in Villanova scoring 52 points in a loss to a mediocre Friars team. Now, Villanova will take on a rapidly improving Georgetown defense that can keep the Hoyas competitive on Thursday afternoon as a substantial underdog. The Hoyas have now gone 5-2 against the spread down the stretch, with the only losses coming against a UConn team with James Bouknight back in the fold.

Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day

Virginia’s ability to dissect Syracuse’s 2-3 zone should help the Cavaliers
create separation on Thursday. Virginia produced 1.16 points per possession in the first meeting against Syracuse this year, opting to stick point guard Kihei Clark in the middle of Syracuse’s zone. That allowed Virginia to space the floor with shooters and the result was a 81-58 Virginia victory. Jim Boeheim has had tough luck going against Virginia, with a 3-7 record against the spread in his last 10 meetings against Tony Bennett.

Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day

Kentucky enters the SEC Tournament with a chance to save a disappointing season and John Calipari appears ready to empty the tank. “There will be no pitchers left,” Calipari said during a teleconference Wednesday. “I’m using every pitcher I can. The knuckle-baller. The curve-baller. The fast (ball) pitcher. The middle reliever. The last-pitch (closer).” Part of the Wildcats adjustments as of late has been moving senior Davion Mintz into the point guard role. That move should benefit the Wildcats, as it removes struggling freshman Devin Askew from the lineup. The Wildcats will now be bigger, more athletic and will not have sacrificed shooting.

Rating: 2 Units

Michigan State continues to fight to keep their season going, and a win on Thursday over Maryland would likely punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans have been a different team as of late, going 5-2 against the spread down the stretch. They won’t lack motivation in this spot, as they previously suffered a loss on the road to Maryland. That first meeting for Michigan State occurred as the fourth game in eight days for the Spartans in late February. Michigan State was a bit taxed from winning back to back games against Illinois and Ohio State prior that outing.

Rating: 3 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day

The Sooners enter off four straight losses. As far as we’re concerned, they’re going into this “the right way.” The last three were against the fan base’s two most hated rivals, Oklahoma State and Texas. They were right there in all three, losing each by 4 points. The “slide” actually began in the second half of their second win against Iowa State, when they turned a 41-25 halftime lead into a non-cover in the road win. Hey, they’re entitled. It’s a tough conference, long season, and somebody has to lose a game involving two high-class winning teams. But enough is enough, and now they drop in class. It’s not like Iowa State is coming into this any better. Actually, the Cyclones current losing streak is four-and-a-quarter times worse, with 17 in a row!

Rating: 3 Unit C-USA Play of the Day

Owl not be denied? Last Friday, we won a ***BEST BET on Florida Atlantic against an admittedly weaker foe, Middle Tennessee, in which we described them as a poor man’s version of the highly ranked Houston Cougars. They hit the offensive glass (11.4 ORs per game) and get many second-chance opportunities after missed three pointers. But they miss fewer treys than most, with a good make rate of 37.5%. They are also in the national top 20 in defensive rebounding percentage. UTEP has played close games against Arizona and Kansas, beat Arizona State. Those were exhibitions for Arizona and Kansas, and we all know that Arizona State was/is a joke. UTEP is more accurate then FAU only at the free-throw line, but they don’t get there with any fearful frequency.

Rating: 2 Units

Duke will take on Louisville for a third time this season, having lost both prior outings. Duke should feel confident however, as the Blue Devils took Louisville to overtime on February 27th despite a 4-for-21 shooting performance from three-point range. The Blue Devils can certainly shoot the ball better than that, and have a mismatch in Matthew Hurt. Hurt torched the Cardinals for 37 points, making 13-of-15 two-point attempts before fouling out. Duke hardly had to break a sweat on Tuesday and the concern of a back to back should be lessened as no starter played more than 27 minutes.

Rating: 2 Units

Iona looked quite sharp after a two week layoff on Monday night, rolling past Quinnipiac by a score of 72-48. Rick Pitino’s defense looked as good as it has this season, limiting the Bobcats to 29.0% shooting from two-point distance. Pitino is certainly capable of now slowing down Siena guard Jalen Pickett and forcing others to attempt to beat him. Iona impressively ranks 24th-best nationally this season in effective field goal percentage allowed, a testament to Pitino still being as sharp as ever on the sideline.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s an annual March tradition for us to take points with Air Force in the Mountain West Tournament first round. Usually, they’re a double-revenge underdog and that’s the case once again. In two wins in three nights here in early February, UNLV could muster only 68 and 69 points vs. the Falcons while actually scoring at a healthy rate: 1.20 and 1.18 points per possession. They probably can’t do much better than that. They might do worse, because they’re not known for quality of shot selection.

Rating: 3 Unit Big East Play of the Day

Marquette’s defense has made strides lately, looking like the physical and attentive group that Steve Wojciechowski had been hoping for this season. The Golden Eagles have held five of their last six opponents to 0.93 points per possession or less. That has helped lead Marquette to a 4-1 record against the spread in those outings. Marquette’s physicality poses as an issue for a Georgetown offense that prefers to play inside through big man Qudus Wahab. Wahab will have to deal with senior center Theo John, one of the better interior defenders in the Big East.

Rating: 2 Units

The Big Sky passed by without a regular season meeting between the #7 PSU Vikings and #10 NAU Lumberjacks. Portland State posted a program-best 66.0 points per game allowed, out of necessity because on the other end of the floor so many of them couldn’t hit a cow’s ass with a shovel. Most of NAU’s players share the same erratic traits, as 32% of the team’s 62.7 ppg have been scored by junior guard Cameron Shelton. NAU’s defensive FG% of 51.5% is difficult to embrace, even against erratic-shooting PSU, who helps make up for their misses by being good on the offensive boards.

Rating: 2 Units

Wake Forest, a multiple possession underdog, gets a chance to reset their season in the ACC Tournament. Said head coach Steve Forbes after a competitive outing against Georgia Tech this week, “Kind of hit a wall in February, maybe it was conditioning. But they’ve kept being positive and we hadn’t always played great, but for a while there tonight I thought that was more indicative of what we saw in January and what we’ll see on Tuesday in Greensboro.” Wake Forest will face a similar minded team in Notre Dame, as both offenses can make shots while both defenses lack physicality.

Rating: 3 Unit Horizon League Play of the Day

Oakland enters as a slight underdog on Tuesday night, with a strong chance to win the Horizon League title. The Grizzlies continue to get exceptional point guard play from Jalen Moore, who totaled 14 points, seven assists and two turnovers in Monday’s win over Northern Kentucky. The Grizzlies will get a third crack at Cleveland State after falling to the Vikings twice in early February in two close contests. Oakland starting guard Rashad Williams missed the first game and only played 11 minutes in the second outing due to injury. Williams is now back and has totaled 39 points in the first two games of the Horizon League Tournament this week. With Moore’s running partner back in the fold, the Grizzlies can more than even the score with Cleveland State.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hurricanes have been playing with less than a full boat all season, but many of the few (get it?) hands on deck are seniors. “Our guys have had a great attitude, a great work ethic,” said Jim Larrañaga after they won at Boston College in the regular-season finale. “To me this was a huge game, to be able to go to the ACC tournament and feel a lot better about ourselves.” Pitt isn’t getting replacement-scoring out of the guards playing more minutes since the #2 and #3 scorers left the program. After head coach Jeff Capel was reprimanded yesterday (‘Stop tickling my wrist!’) for saying that ACC officiating has been biased against his team, the refs probably won’t bend over backwards to help him out.

Rating: 2 Units

Pepperdine is a sizable underdog on Monday night against a BYU team they were competitive against this season. The Waves lost by 11 to the Cougars on the road and then knocked off BYU at home, 76-73. Pepperdine has played exceptional perimeter defense this season, ranking 4th-best nationally in three point percentage allowed. That will be key against a BYU offense that often relies on their perimeter shooting to lead the way. Pepperdine was led on Saturday in the quarterfinals by their star duo of Colbey Ross and Kessler Edwards, who combined for 46 points.

Rating: 3 Unit Horizon League Play of the Day

In an odd twist, Oakland and Northern Kentucky have not met yet this season and will see each other for the first time on Monday night. The meeting will be a clash of styles with Oakland’s uptempo system facing off against a very slow Northern Kentucky team. Where Oakland holds an advantage is with terrific point guard Jalen Moore leading the way. Moore leads the nation in assist rate and will likely be able to get the pace of the game on the Grizzlies’ terms. Also helpful for Oakland is their willingness to pack the paint and allow opposing teams to shoot from three. That’s an issue for a Northern Kentucky team that ranks 288th in three-point percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

Appalachian State has carried Winning Points Executive Club members through a pair of 5-Star victories on Saturday and Sunday as outright underdogs against #1W seed Texas State, and #2E Coastal Carolina. We don’t view these as “upsets.” Heck, if we think an underdog will win outright, how could it be an “upset?” The ability to suddenly pivot away from, and against, your winners is an important trait for handicappers and bettors to have in their mental/emotional arsenal. (Example: shoulda been that way dealing with VMI yesterday). Or, there’s always the option to be neutral and walk away. It’s a fourth game in four nights for App State. Their starters have played 38-42 minutes in the last two and they’ve lost junior 6’8” forward James Lewis to injury along the way. The bench scored 0 yesterday. Soph guard Donovan Gregory got 8 steals for them last night vs. Coastal (3 and 0 the prior two nights). Yesterday, we mentioned how Georgia State’s good ball security was an asset. After getting swept by App State on the road in January when they hadn’t played in two weeks, Georgia State won 85-71 the next time the teams met on Feb. 23.

Rating: 2 Units

Ya’ gotta love the Horizon League. Milwaukee’s ousting of #2 seed Wright State in a delayed second round was typical of this conference, not an upset despite the 14-point line, as per the picture we painted for everyone in one of last week’s daily issues. When lower seeds play with six days’ rest, instead of in back-to-back situations, these things tend to happen with more frequency than in more traditional tourneys. By the way, Milwaukee trailed Wright by 24 points in the second half! They closed on a 33-4 run! We won’t expect UW-M to advance here. Anybody that can fall behind by that much may do it again, and be trying to come back vs. better defense. They need to prove they can make a lot of shots against somebody other than Wright State, against whom they’d hit 80 in both prior losses. The Panthers lost 64-53 off a six-day break at Cleveland State, then needed OT the next night to get to 81. But there’s no second night if they lose this.

Rating: 3 Unit Southern Conference Play of the Day

Easy-peasy with our **PREFERRED winner on VMI yesterday – needed only one overtime! Although the Keydets invested a lot of sweat and limited manpower into yesterday’s upset (Wait, what upset? We thought they’d win!), this second of back-to-backs for them is against a Mercer bunch playing for the third straight night. And, they’re military kids. They’ve been through their share of off-the-court physical abuse, er, training! The lone regular season meeting went Mercer’s way, 83-80, at Mercer but our numbers, with an underdog that shoots and rebounds as well as VMI, say that today, it’s…

Rating: 2 Units

Texas beat the Horned Frogs by 15 points at home, rendering TCU center Kevin Samuel essentially invisible. Shaka Smart was impressed afterwards that his Longhorns could win by that much, despite being sloppy early with  turnovers and not shooting well from three-point range. NCAA Tournament-bound road chalk lays single-digits to .500 overall foe 5-10 in conference.

Rating: 2 Units

Drake is a wounded team, who needed a buzzer beater on Saturday to advance past Missouri State. The Bulldogs are now without both starters Roman Penn and Shanquan Hemphill due to injury, forcing a few players to log heavy minutes on Saturday. Now they’ll meet Loyola Chicago on Sunday who easily dispatched Indiana State on Saturday. The Ramblers look like a team on a mission, and will have a bit of extra motivation having lost their last game at Drake in overtime on February 14th.

Rating: 2 Units

Iowa put together a strong performance against the Badgers in their first meeting on February 18th. The Hawkeyes limited the Badgers to 22.2% shooting from two-point range, leading to a 77-62 victory. Iowa will send off All American Luka Garza on senior day, likely creating for a bit of extra motivation. Wisconsin has looked like a broken team as of late, having lost four of five games. The Badgers simply have not been able to compete with the top of the Big 10, having gone 0-7 against the spread against Michigan, Iowa, Illinois and Purdue. Their defense isn’t what it used to be

Rating: 3 Unit AAC Play of the Day

Houston has been dominant at home this season, having covered the spread in their last five home games by double digits. The Cougars have had a week to prepare for this AAC showdown, while Memphis has spent the week on the road playing Tuesday and Thursday road games. This will be a major step up in weight class for Memphis, who has not played a Top 100 Ken Pom team in more than a month. The Tigers’ carelessness on offense, where they rank 326th in turnover rate, will create issues against an aggressive Houston defense.

Rating: 3 Unit Atlantic 10 Play of the Day

Davidson’s 99-point outing on Friday against George Mason was impressive but the Wildcats are perhaps a bit overvalued off such a performance. VCU meanwhile saw the return of star guard Bones Hyland, who totaled 30 points in a victory against Dayton. Hyland missed VCU’s first meeting against Davidson last week, in which the Rams were competitive in a one-possession game for the first 30 minutes until losing distance on the road. VCU will have the luxury of having seen Davidson’s motion offense once recently, something George Mason did not have the benefit of on Friday. Consider that Davidson is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points

Rating: 2 Units

Belmont handled Morehead State in their first meeting this season, rolling to a 73-58 win at home in a game they never trailed. The Bruins would then lose the second meeting on the road in overtime, but did have starting center Nick Muszynski for that meeting. Muszynski is now back and the Bruins are 20-0 in the Ohio Valley when the big man suits up. Muszynski will help anchor a Belmont defense that ranked 2nd best in the Ohio Valley in two-point percentage allowed. That’s where Morehead State prefers to do their scoring, making this spot a challenge for the Eagles.

Rating: 2 Units

Furman, 8-13 ATS, is favored at this neutral site against a 13-7 ATS opponent it lost to outright, 74-73, as an 11-point road favorite on Jan. 20. The catch – oh, there’s always a catch – is that VMI canceled its last three regular season games due to positive tests and quarantining, which began Feb. 22. So, if ya’ like military dogs with the best three-point field goal percentage in their conference (38.9%), gap in games notwithstanding

Rating: 2 Units

Mississippi’s season will be on the line on Saturday, as the Rebels are just hanging onto the edge of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Ole Miss stayed in contention with a solid win over Kentucky on Tuesday and will have two extra days of preparation compared to a Vanderbilt team that has had quite the schedule as of late. This will be the third game in six days for the Commodores, having played at LSU on Tuesday, at Cincinnati on Thursday and now travel to Mississippi for Saturday. The Rebels will also be out for payback, having dropped a road game against Vanderbilt by five points. Vanderbilt shot 12-for-23 in that outing to escape with a home victory.

Rating: 3 Unit Sun Belt Play of the Day

USA’s short rotation has not done well in the second of back-to-back games this season, and those losses occurred against opponents who were also playing without rest. Tonight’s opponent is a 17-6 team with rest, and 6’9" and 6’10" forwards the smaller Jaguars will be scrappin’ for rebounds against with their shorter, tired legs. It took us about three-and-a-half months to acknowledge the existence of Bob Marlin’s Ragin Cajuns and if they don’t come through for us, then we can go back to forgetting about them.

Rating: 3 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day

Indiana isn’t supposed to have a losing record in head coach Archie Miller’s fourth season, are they? But they have one, following four straight losses, scoring only 57 and 58 in the last two vs. Michigan and Michigan State. Trayce Jackson-Davis had 25 points but only 4 rebounds when the Hoosiers lost 81-69 to the Boilermakers at home. They’ve been missing guard Armaan Franklin, #2 scorer and 45% three-point shooter. By all accounts, he’ll miss this

Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day

Wichita State has plenty at stake when they take the floor on Saturday. The
Shockers have a shot to win the American Athletic Conference outright with a win and will be attempting to do so on Senior Day. The Shockers will also be fortunate to play in front of a crowd that will be at 25% capacity, creating a rare homecourt advantage this season. South Florida meanwhile has appeared lifeless lately, being blown out in three straight games. The Bulls interior  defense has been decimated as starting forward Alexis Yetan and center Michael Durr are dealing with injuries.

Rating: 2 Units

Florida State will enter Saturday with a chance to clinch an outright ACC title with a win at Notre Dame. The Seminoles are playing terrifically this season while Notre Dame has not displayed much fight lately. Said Mike Brey, “We really haven’t had much the last two games - fighting. You can’t use pandemics and all that as an excuse. It’s a little bit of the pride of digging in and competing. We did that to get out of a hole at 0-5, but we haven’t shown any of that lately.” The Irish have struggled all year with physical and athletic teams, especially those who can switch defensively. Florida State is exactly that.

Rating: 2 Units

Anyone still craving Morehead after its 17-8 ATS regular season was warned by us, then got beat by a hair Wednesday night in what we feel was some foreshadowing for tonight. We’re pleased to take the points with an EKU side averaging 81.1 ppg in conference action as the defensively-led favorite scores less than 1.0 points per possession.

Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day

Georgia Tech’s season will once again be on the line when they take the floor against Wake Forest. The Yellow Jackets simply can’t afford a loss, as they are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. One area where Georgia Tech has struggled at times, defending inside, is not likely to be exploited by Wake Forest. Said Steve Forbes after a loss against Pittsburgh this week, “We’re not a team that’s going to drive in there and finish every time. It’s deflating when you get to the rim and can’t finish.”

Rating: 3 Unit Atlantic 10 Mismatch of the Day

Taking two possessions worth of points on double-avenging Dayton. Not since Eric Maynor in 2009 (22.3 ppg) has VCU’s scoring leader averaged as many points per game as VCU’s Bones Hyland (19.2), who’ll be coming off a two-game absence and foot sprain if he plays. Given that second-leading scorer Vince Williams is playing through an injury and nobody else on the favored Rams averages more than 7.3 ppg, doesn’t Anthony Grant go with a box-and-one against Hyland?

Rating: 3 Unit Missouri Valley Play of the Day

Indiana State will rally around head coach Greg Lansing this week, as rumors that he will not return have surfaced. In what would be a bizarre decision by Indiana State to let Lansing go, the Sycamores can put forth a great effort in Saint Louis this week. They’ll return starting guard Tyreke Key to the lineup after missing games due to injury and Lansing feels this team is ready to break through. “In our tenure, in our earlier years, we did well in the Valley tournament,” Lansing said. “Then we went on a stretch where we weren’t good enough, prepared enough and the guys weren’t competitive enough. We’re not happy not going over any winning games, but this team is different, a special group of young men.”

Rating: 2 Units

Saint Louis easily took care of UMass on Monday, and the two teams now meet again in the quarterfinals of the A10 Tournament. The Billikens featured a bigger look in that meeting with the Minutemen, playing Hasan French more at forward next to centers Jimmy Bell or Martin Linssen. The played a part in Saint Louis dominating the glass, as they collected 46.7% of their own misses, on the way to a 78-57 win.

Rating: 3 Unit Atlantic 10 Play of the Day

Duquesne battled St. Bonaventure in both meetings this season before running out of steam late. Both games were one possession games after 30 minutes but at that earlier point of the season Duquesne’s conditioning was still an issue off of a program pause due to COVID-19. The Dukes are a physical bunch capable of playing a low scoring slugfest against the Bonnies. The Dukes ability to defend the three-point line, where they rank best in the A10, will be key against a St. Bonaventure attack that shot 37.5% from three-point range in conference play.

Rating: 2 Units

The Sooners are stinging off overtime and 4-point losses to Oklahoma State, but that doesn’t earn them the right to beat the avenging Longhorns, who lost to them 80-79 at home despite playing without head coach Shaka Smart, starters Jericho Sims and Courtney Ramey, and 17-minute reserve Brock Cunningham. Three more Longhorns fouled out and they were down to just five scholarship players at the bitter end.

Rating: 2 Units

East Carolina was just recently cleared to practice five on five on Monday, meaning the team won’t be anywhere quite near game shape once the ball is tipped off on Thursday night. East Carolina head coach Joe Dooley said his team will be down to nine scholarship players due to Bitumba Baruti being out with COVID-19 protocols, and Tyrie Jackson and Charles Coleman continuing to be sidelined with injuries. The Pirates saw five straight games postponed or canceled during their latest COVID-19 pause as a result of multiple positive tests.

Rating: 2 Units

Jax State did it all wrong over the weekend, getting season sweeps of Austin Peay and Murray State for the first time in school history. Too many milestones reached already! Although head coach Ray Harper is a wily tournament underdog from way back, we’d have to say that adjustments are now all on Murray State for this one, as well as the emotional edge of being the better-pedigreed program owning double-revenge in the win-or-go-home game. While most people see JSU as heading into this “the right way” with seven wins in last eight games, the only loss by a mere four points at #1 seed Belmont, we’ve long felt that this is closer to the “wrong way” than right.

Rating: 3 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day

Rasir Bolton, Iowa State’s leader in points, rebounds, assists, steals – not to mention minutes with 33.6 per game! -- injured an ankle on Sunday and didn’t play in the second half. In Tuesday night’s hosting of Texas, Bolton did not play but two guards who played Bolton-like minutes when they normally don’t shot 2-for-11 and 1-for-8. If Iowa State was a good team, we’d say that these kids would definitely do better next time out. But their only 2 wins have been against low-Major competition. They’re not a good team.

Rating: 3 Unit C-USA Play of the Day

Host FAU is a poor man’s version of the highly ranked Houston Cougars. They hit the offensive glass (11.4 ORs per game) and get many second-chance opportunities after missed three-pointers. But they make an above-average percentage of their threes: 38.0%. They are also in the national top 20 in defensive rebounding percentage. All of this would seem to work well against a 3-11 visitor that can’t shoot straight (.96 points per possession in C-USA games).

Rating: 2 Units

East Carolina was just recently cleared to practice five on five on Monday, meaning the team won’t be anywhere quite near game shape once the ball is tipped off on Thursday night. East Carolina head coach Joe Dooley said his team will be down to nine scholarship players due to Bitumba Baruti being out with COVID-19 protocols, and Tyrie Jackson and Charles Coleman continuing to be sidelined with injuries. The Pirates saw five straight games postponed or canceled during their latest COVID-19 pause as a result of multiple positive tests.

Rating: 3 Unit Atlantic 10 Play of the Day

Massachusetts did not have the luxury of easing back into play off of their
program pause recently, opening back up on the road against Richmond and
Saint Louis. The Minutemen now are closer to full health, as Matt McCall called
Wednesday’s practice the best they’ve had in a while. While St. Joseph’s has
impressed lately, their recent win streak is a bit hollow. The Hawks knocked off
a poor La Salle team narrowly in two games, defeated a depleted Richmond
and beat a Dayton team that inexplicably changed their lineup for one game.
The Hawks are not likely to be able to defend UMass star big man Tre Mitchell
in this meeting.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lobos are 2-14 in Mountain West action and have announced that head coach Paul Weir will not return next season. As further punishment, they’re making him coach until the season is over, which includes this road game (they’ve all been road games!) against a 15-4 overall CSU team eyeing first place as it enters 12-3 in conference, in a four-way logjam at the top with San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State. The home favorite sports the top FG% in the conference, 48.6%, which includes the #1 three-point percentage of 38.4%. New Mexico’s three-point percentage is #11 in an 11-team league, 26.1%. The Lobos’ 59.4% free throw percentage is the worst of any main-betting board team.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s been a difficult time for Texas A&M, as the Aggies have not played a game since January 30th. Head coach Buzz Williams said his team went a full month without having his full roster available for practice and in total could only complete eight partial practices throughout the month of February. They’ll take on a Mississippi State team that is in the flow of the SEC schedule and has avoided having any shutdown all season long.

Rating: 3 Unit Big East Play of the Day

Losses have been rare for Villanova since the formation of the new Big East, but when they do occur, the Wildcats respond strongly. Villanova is 22-13-2 against the spread after a loss, which they’re faced with here after a Sunday defeat at the hands of Butler. The motivation does not stop there for the Wildcats, as they also owe Creighton payback from their worst loss of the season on February 13th. In addition, Villanova is also hosting senior day for starters Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, two pillars of their program for the last four years.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lobos are 2-14 in Mountain West action and have announced that head coach Paul Weir will not return next season. As further punishment, they’re making him coach until the season is over, which includes this road game (they’ve all been road games!) against a 15-4 overall CSU team eyeing first place as it enters 12-3 in conference, in a four-way logjam at the top with San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State. The home favorite sports the top FG% in the conference, 48.6%, which includes the #1 three-point percentage of 38.4%. New Mexico’s three-point percentage is #11 in an 11-team league, 26.1%. The Lobos’ 59.4% free throw percentage is the worst of any main-betting board team.

Rating: 2 Units

Seton Hall finds itself in a desperate situation as the Pirates have lost consecutive games to Georgetown and Butler after having previously been safely on the right side of the bubble. The Pirates now can ill afford another loss and will not lack motivation when taking on the Huskies. It’s senior night for the Pirates and they’ll have fans inside the Prudential Center for the first time all season to send off star big man Sandro Mamukelashvili. The big man was a handful for the Huskies in their first meeting this season, as the versatile 6’11 forward totaled 22 points, seven rebounds and two assists in a 80-73 win.

Rating: 2 Units

Purdue is playing their best at the right time , winning and covering their last three games. Purdue has a rising star in freshman guard Jaden Ivey, who has totaled 40 points in those last three games while playing exceptional defense. Ivey has brought a physical and athletic preference that the Boilermakers needed. Purdue has only allowed one team to produce 1.00 points per possession or more in the last seven games. Purdue has a few long and athletic perimeter defenders including Ivey and Eric Hunter that will make things difficult for Wisconsin guard, D’Mitrik Trice.

Rating: 3 Unit CBB Mismatch of the Day

Oakland gets to restart its season at home after finishing the regular season on the road for four straight games, which included two double overtime losses. The Grizzlies now have had more than a week of rest and preparation to face a team they beat handily in two regular season meetings. In two wins over Youngstown State, Oakland’s offense was clicking, producing 1.17 and 1.20 points per possession. Point guard Jalen Moore was in full control of those outings, dishing a total of 26 assists.

Rating: 2 Units

Central Florida has played well against zone this season, ranking in the 74th percentile in points per possession against zone while shooting 36.7% from three-point range on the season. The Knights shot 13-of-28 against Tulsa’s zone in their first meeting this season, defeating Tulsa on the road. Tulsa has hit a low point in their season with fans starting to question Frank Haith’s job status. Tulsa could not take advantage of a recent five-game homestand, losing four of five and now have to face an improving UCF squad.

Rating: 2 Units

Because Cleveland State finished in a tie atop the Horizon League, is the #1 seed, and went 3-1 SU and ATS against these Mastodons during the regular season, folks will assume that the first of the five meetings between the teams in Cleveland State’s arena is destined to go the way of the favored Vikings. That could be pre-historic thinking. We’ve already detailed IFPW’s high Effective Field Goal rate when we won our ***BEST BET with them at Wisconsin-GB last week in the opening round. Despite the good shooting, they’re a little sloppy. Their points per possession is only on a par with defensive-minded Cleveland State’s. But CSU is laying the highest number they’ve had to cover all season, in the most important game.

Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day

First game for Alabama since clinching the SEC regular-season title with a low-scoring win at Mississippi State. Some will expect a letdown for the home favorite. We do not. It’s an opportunity to put away the school’s archrival at home, convincingly, and not get involved in another 94-90 game like the one they played at Auburn, which was the collegiate debut of the Tigers’ freshman point guard Sharif Cooper. Cooper played well, but now the Tide knows who he is. Others know him as the kid who didn’t play in either of Auburn’s last two games. Auburn can’t play in the post-season, so many will assume they’ll go nuts here. But Alabama knows that. They’ll be ready to punch back.

Rating: 3 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day

The 18-1 Wolverines have been darn near infallible against just about all comers. That their one loss came at Minnesota – who is 2-8 since – is pretty much the exception that proves the rule. They are 1 win away from clinching the Big Ten regular season title, with three games to play before the conference tournament. Illinois is their closest pursuer. The Illini’s star guard, Ayo Dosunmu, has been out with a broken nose. Illini head coach Brad Underwood made some recent comments about Michigan’s pause that Wolverines players may interpret as insulting. He also said, “These games mean nothing. There’s no Big Ten championship that means much. These games don’t mean much. They really don’t.” Seems like he’s more interested in pursuing a national championship, eh?

Rating: 3 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day

Oregon returns home after playing three games in a row on the road, and
ended that trip with two road wins at Stanford and California. The Ducks are
fully healthy and a dangerous team as they enter March. Oregon’s ability to
keep teams off balance on offense will be pivotal against an Arizona team that
wants to play inside out. The Ducks allow very little around the interior, as
they’ve forced Pac 12 teams to attempt 38.1% of field goals from three-point
range, the 3rd-highest rate in the conference. That’s a potential issue for an
Arizona team that takes the 2nd-fewest threes in the Pac 12.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami has a quick turnaround from a Saturday loss at Clemson, and will do so with six scholarship players. “We had six guys and two of them didn’t score any points,” Jim Larranaga said. “It’s hard. To only get 58 today, we thought that would probably be the most we could get, 58-60. We’re going to have to hold them in the low-50s to win the ballgame.” Scoring won’t get any easier as the Hurricanes are tasked with going against Virginia’s pack line defense

Rating: 3 Unit Atlantic 10 Play of the Day

See the Dayton selection above for a reason to be against St. Joe’s this evening. The Hawks are a 3-14 team overall, 2-9 in conference, coming off a 97-point outing in victory. They hit a ceiling so hard, and now it’s time for the bounce-down crash against a 13-6 Richmond team coming home off a loss at Saint Louis where the Spiders played well enough to win despite losing and not covering. Saint Louis – who plays defense while St. Joe’s pretty much does not – beat Richmond where St. Joe’s cannot, in the paint

Rating: 2 Units

Quality dog figures to be taking a couple of possessions worth of points. Taking things at face value, Dayton is off a 97-84 loss at A-10 doormat St. Joe’s. St. Bonaventure is off their most dominant win of the season, 88-41 vs. George Washington Slept Here. Therefore, face-value folks will be all over the home favorite in its home finale. And that’s fine. If we don’t win, and it doesn’t push, then we hope they win. St. Joe’s flung 42 three-pointers at the hoop against Dayton and 18 of them happened to go through the net. It happens.

Rating: 3 Unit

Summit League Play of the Day

North Dakota State will be attempting to even the series against South Dakota this weekend, and will have the benefit of not facing the Coyotes at their best. South Dakota star guard AJ Plitzuweit suffered a gruesome leg injury that likely ended his season. Plitzuweit has averaged 19.0 points per game while making 43.3% of three-point attempts. Without their leading scorer, the Coyotes will have a tough time fending off a North Dakota State team looking for payback on Sunday.

Rating: 2 Units

Beating real ranked Big Ten opponents on the road (not the fake ranked teams like Northwestern and Minnesota, who are ranked early and then lose everything!) has never been part of the Hawkeyes’ identity under Fran McCaffrey. As if anyone needs reminding. We’ll give them their recent win at Wisconsin (ranked #23 when they shouldn’t be!) but not here. Despite having the revenge angle for an 89-85 home loss on Feb. 4, we’ll let them prove they can handle the nationally #4-ranked team on the road when the Buckeyes are off two losses.

Rating: 2 Units

If Pitt head coach Jeff Capel has one or three guys capable of replacing the 28.6 points per game that left the program in the form of two starting guards last week, on the road where they hardly ever win, then he’s done a fine job of hiding them. The situation is almost way too obvious for us to be getting involved, especially since the home side often meets favorable situations it screws up. But considering that the two Panthers departees were 14+ ppg juniors as well as the two leading assist guys.

Rating: 2 Units

Villanova head coach Jay Wright has got his team back to basics after being routed at Creighton two weeks ago. Wright said that his team has re-focused their attention to the defensive end, and that has resulted in allowing 0.94 points per possession and 0.76 PPP to St. John’s in their last two outing. With an improved defense to go with an extremely efficient offense, the Wildcats could be geared for another March run. Complicating matters for Butler is that starting guards Aaron Thompson and Bo Hodges are once again game-time decisions for Sunday.

Rating: 3 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day

Earlier this season, KU suffered a home loss to Texas by the score of 84-59. Texas was ranked #8 then, is still in the Top 20. Baylor is ranked #2, with a points differential of +23.1, and beat the Jayhawks 77-69 in January after leading 41-28 at halftime. Wisely, the Bears didn’t pour it on in the second half, the better to lessen Jayhawk revenge emotions for this re-hook. Sweeping Kansas would put a nice cherry on top of Baylor’s seasonal sundae that sure is taking a long time in between spoon fulls.

Rating: 2 Units

If you’d told us in advance that Evansville would go out and score 81 points last night, we’d have figured it to have led to a winner for us, taking +5. However, it was not to be as Missouri State hit 69.4% of their shots (they’re at 48.4% for the season). Look, if that’s what it takes to beat us, then we probably should take some pride in that, and stick to our guns for the instant re-hook. Besides, Missouri State locked the MVC’s #3 tournament seed with the win.

Rating: 3 Unit Atlantic 10 Play of the Day

Duquesne was robbed of momentum earlier this month when their program had to go on pause. The Dukes now have two games under their belt and now will get to play in their renovated Cooper Fieldhouse for just the second time this season. In their first outing in their new gym, the Dukes impressed in a home victory over Rhode Island. Duquesne’s recent loss to La Salle has deflated their value and a buy-low situation now has appeared. Head coach Keith Dambrot said a good old fashioned butt kicking would be good for his team. The duo of Michael Hughes and Marcus Weathers inside can control the interior in this one for the Dukes.

Rating: 3 Unit Ohio Valley Play of the Day

JSU is off a season-best 54.2% from three-point range in a season sweep of Murray State. This happened on the same Thursday night during which Tennessee Tech pulled a shooting night out of their butts (56.4% overall, 50.0% from three-point range) to beat Austin Peay, who contributed to their own demise with a 5-for-20 (25.0%) outing on three-pointers. The traveling Governors have revenge against JSU, for a 76-70 loss in which their available bench was three players who totaled 3 points. They’ve gotten guys back since then. Consider that Jacksonville State is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite

Rating: 4 Unit ACC Game of the Week

In their prior meeting, Va. Tech blocked 9 shots to Wake’s 0, shot 47.8% to Wake’s 36.7%... but won the game only 64-60! Despite that nonsense, we’ll side with the #16-ranked Hokies in their second game back from a pause. They returned from it in a hornet’s nest – all right, a Yellow Jackets’ nest -- at Georgia Tech, turning in their worst offensive game of the season against a good defensive foe. At the same time, Tech exploited their shaky interior defense with 26-and-10 game from Moses Wright, a 6’9” inside scorer the likes of whom Wake Forest does not feature.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami was dominated from the start in their last outing against Florida State as the Hurricanes are limping to the finish line. Miami is down to six scholarship players and will have to deal with another team that possesses depth and pressure defense. Clemson’s ability to defend for 90 feet will take a toll on a Miami team that simply has run out of bodies this season. Clemson has started recapture some of their play from early in the season and still have plenty to play for as they try to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.