Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Niners enter off a pair of SU favorite losses, while the host Cardinals arrive off last week’s underdog win against the Rams. Because of it, the bottom line is this game is packed with value. Remember, the preseason line on this game at the Westgate Super Book was “pick”, so it’s been adjusted more than a variable rate mortgage loan. The Clincher: San Francisco is 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite, including 5-0 SUATS versus .800 or greater opponents. Playing against any .500 or greater NFL division favorite coming off consecutive wins, the last as a dog (Arizona), versus an opponent coming off consecutive losses, each as a favorite, if the Over/Under total in this game is more than 41 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit SEC Play of the Day

After losing 33 of its previous 35 battles with the Gators, you would think Mr. Mo-Mentum would stick around Lexington for another week, but his reputation is to bail on the Cats, who are 14-27 SU after games with UF, including 2-7 ATS as a favorite. The Tigers make things more difficult for the hosts with their 17-4 ATS as dogs when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 13-1-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opponents. And for what it’s worth, Kentucky’s finest is 0-3 SUATS since 1980 in Game Six after opening the season 5-0, plus Big blue is a weak 13-33 SU and 17-29 ATS in SEC games after winning any game SU as an underdog. The clincher: College football home favorites coming off a SU home win as an underdog of 7 or more points are 1-13 ATS the last six years when facing .600 or fewer opponents. Playing on any 3-2 conference dog in Game Six coming off a SU conference favorite loss if they scored fewer than 30 points in the loss (LSU) and are facing an opponent that was not favored by 6 or more points in its last game is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week

Penn State is 3-0 ATS on the road with conference revenge (they got drubbed by the Hawkeyes in Happy Valley last year, 41-21, to drop them to 0-5), while Iowa is just 1-5 ATS at home against a vengeful opponent. The Lions are also 10-1 ATS in Game Six of the season versus a foe coming off a win, including 6-0 SUATS in the last six. Meanwhile, Kirk Ferentz is 2-6-1 ATS as a favorite in games when both teams are undefeated and the opponent is seeking revenge. The clinchers: when a 5-0 favorite is laying points into a 5-0  dog – as Iowa will be doing this week against Penn State – the 5-0 favorite is 6-14 ATS.

Rating: 5 Units

Denver stands 22-10 SUATS at home versus opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 15-5 SUATS in non-division contests. Then there’s the red-hot Bridgewater, who is 21-6 ATS when his team is coming off a win, including 15-2 ATS versus non-division foes. Consider that 3-0 teams in the NFL are 15-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when hosting a non-division opponent.

Rating: 4 Units

The Steelers come into this one 7-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven in non-conference road games. The fact that HC Tomlin is at his best when facing quality opponents who own a .666 or greater record, going 37-13-2 ATS when the foe is coming off back-to-back wins, including 20-6-2 ATS as a dog. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is 37-21-3 ATS as a dog, including 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS away against foes coming off consecutive wins.

Rating: 5 Units

Playing against any NFL team with a winning record coming off a Monday Night divisional win and cover if they are facing a .750 or greater opponents coming off a SUATS win of more than 3 points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. In addition, Rhule 36-13 ATS away and 40-19 ATS as a dog in his combined college and NFL head coaching careers, and Dallas a dismal 0-8 SUATS at home in games after coming off a Monday night game

Rating: 4 Units

The Cats own a Top 10-ranked defense and are outgaining opponents by 183 yards per game this campaign. In addition, HC Mark Stoops is 12-5 SU and 12-2 ATS when the Wildcats are undefeated, including 8-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win. His stop unit came up with a big effort in a 16-10 win over South Carolina on Saturday, while the rushing attack rolled up 230 yards on the ground.

Rating: 5 Unit

Nevada has had a week off to lick their wounds from a 21-point loss to Kansas State, and should be raring to go in the high country today. It makes sense considering the Broncos are just 1-3 ‘In The Stats’ this year, outgained by 49 yards per game this season. Nevada head coach Jay Norvell (no relation to Mike) is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS coming off a bye, and we’re choosing to forget about the blowout loss to KSU. Consider also that Nevada is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus a foe coming off a win.

Rating: 5 Unit Cash Play

Playing on any college football home dog of fewer than 4 points (Notre Dame) from game five out if both teams are undefeated and the home dog was either a dog or a favorite of 7 or fewer points in their last game is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Units

The revitalized Rams found their magic elixir in QB Matthew Stafford, whose 127.0 QB rating is nearly 40 points above his career average. The horned heads are 7-1 ATS in this series as well as 5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. On the other side of the field Tampa, who has yet to win the stats this season, is 1-7 ATS in Game Three of the season, as well as 1-4 ATS
in its last five games against NFC West opposition. To cap it off, consider that playing against the defending Super Bowl champion as a non-division road pick or favorite coming off a win in which they scored 48 or fewer points if they own a win percentage of more than .900 and are facing an opponent coming off a win of 14 or fewer points is 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Units

HC Riley is 4-0 SUATS in the next contest after OU scores 28 or fewer points in their previous game. Additionally, the Sooners overall are 29-2 SU and 21-10 ATS in conference games after failing to score 27 or more points. Battles against arch-rival Nebraska seem to give OU a kick in the pants as well – a 3-0 SUATS mark after playing the Huskers, with an average score of 60-19. After last weeks lethargic win means the Sooners need to make an impressive win in order to keep their place in the CFB Playoff chase, and they get it here. Consider also that West Virginia is 13-43-1 ATS in games they lose SU as a conference dog.

Rating: 5 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week

Iowa State has won three of the last four meetings with Baylor. The Cyclones needed to work for a 38-31 home victory over the two-win Bears in 2020, as Hall rushed for 133 yards on 31 carries and scored three total touchdowns but Purdy threw three interceptions along with three TDs. Purdy has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 736 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions while going 2-1 against Baylor. Though the Bears (3-0, 1-0) have outscored their first three opponents 140-34 and beat league-foe Kansas by 38 last weekend, this will be their first true test of the 2021 campaign -- a challenge that coach Dave Aranda and his Baylor squad hope they are prepared to meet. Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon is 51-for-70 for 664 yards with five touchdowns, without being intercepted or sacked. Meanwhile, receivers R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton have combined for 27 catches, 440 yards and hree touchdowns. Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner have totaled 683 rushing yards, with the former posting five touchdowns.  Consider that playing on ay .750 or more college football home dog off consecutive wins if they scored 40 or more points in both games if they allowed 12 or fewer point in their last game (Baylor) is a perfect 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Units

SEC dogs of 7 or fewer points are 8-18 SU and 9-17 ATS in battles with the Big Ten, including 3-10 ATS of late. Also, HC Bryan Harsin, in his first season in Auburn after leaving Boise State, has a shaky 1-5 SUATS mark versus non-conference foes coming off a SUATS win. Penn State is on a 6-0 SUATS win skein since starting the 2020 season on a 0-5 skid. James Franklin is also 8-4 ATS at home versus SEC opponents – he beat Auburn, 17-13, in his only meeting from his days with Vanderbilt. In addition he is 8-2 SU at home versus undefeated opponents, including 6-1 SUATS when his team is coming off a win.  But also consider that Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin is 17-4 SUATS in his career when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 12-0 ATS over the last twelve games.

Rating: 5 Units

Indiana HC, Allen stands 15-7-1 ATS when coming off a win, including 9-1 ATS the last ten. Not many good ATS numbers for Cincinnati here as the Bearcats are a surprising 3-6 ATS as road chalk. With Top 10 teams dropping like flies the last two weeks, we’ll take the Hoosiers to spring yet another upset today. Also consider that Cincinnati HC Fickell is 1-5 SU on the Big Ten road in his career, including 0-5 when his team sports a winning record.

Rating: 4 Units

Playing three road games in a row is always tough, as since 2014, sixteen other teams have been in that same situation: playing their last two preseason games on the road and then opening the regular season on the road. Those sixteen teams are 6-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS in Week One, including 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS if they failed to make the postseason the previous year. Both Baltimore and Jacksonville played their last two preseason games on the road, and then open the season on the road. That makes their Week One game their third road game in a row. MNF favorites dip to 4-12 SU and 1-15 ATS when laying less than 6 points in a game in which the Over/Under total is set at 40 or more points

Rating: 5 Units

Liberty HC Freeze is 8-3 SUATS as a favorite in his college football head coaching career against opponents with an identical record, including 6-0 SUATS in non-conference contests. On the flip side, the Trojans have hit a rough patch, going just 8-13 SU and 9-12 ATS the last two-plus seasons, including 2-7 ATS in games when coming off a win. With both teams loaded to the gills with returning talent, look for these numbers to continue here today.

Rating: 5 Units

Arkansas State is 8-1 ATS as a nonconference home dog and now move forward with new head coach Butch Jones (popular Blake Anderson left in the off-season for Utah State) and Red Wolves cruised past Central Arkansas, 40-21, in Jones’ first game last week as a -13.5-point favorite. ASU has assumed the role as a “mission team” this season, suffering its first losing season last year after having been a bowler the past ten seasons. Today, they will look to avenge a 37-24 loss at Memphis to start last year’s campaign knowing that Red Wolves head coach Butch Jones is 18-3 SU at home in his career when coming off a win of more than 8 points. Consider that any college football non-conference home dog of 3 or more points in Game Two with 17 or more returning starters if they are seeking revenge against a foe off a win of 7 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week

The Owls seem to have taken on a different demeanor under HC Mike Bloomgren, who has improved his team’s defense each year since coming aboard. Also, Bloomgren is 15-10-1 ATS as a dog with the Owls, including 11-4-1 ATS with revenge. Consider that Game Two dogs returning 17 starters and coming off a SUATS loss of 15 or more points, are 18-2 ATS when facing a foe coming off a loss.

Rating: 10 Unit NCAAF Game of the Year

While the Cyclones are the choice of many to meet Oklahoma
in a rematch of the Big 12 title game again his season, they are coming off
another close-call with Northern Iowa (aren’t they all – last 9 games with
the Panthers have resulted in 3 losses and 4 wins of six of fewer points).
Still, they are 9-3 ATS in games after tackling Northern Iowa when facing
foes coming off win, so look for more of the same today. In closing, if
you want some numbers, be aware that Iowa is just 2-9 ATS as a nonconference dog of less than 13 points, while the Cyclones are 6-1 ATS as
non-conference home favorites of less than 18 points. Additionally, the
host team in this series has covered four straight contests.

Rating: 4 Units

ND HC Kelly is 0-4 ATS in his career versus .500 or greater MAC foes when his team is not coming off a double-digit win, and 4-8 ATS Game Two since 2008, and 5-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite when coming off a win-no-cover. Coach K must also take a closer look at an anemic Notre Dame ground game that averaged a feeble 1.9 yards per rush against FSU. Jason Candle’s Rockets just happen to be 10-4-1 ATS when undefeated and coming off a win of 28 or more points, including 5-0-1 ATS the last six away. And when the Irish find themselves favored by less than 20 points in Game Two of the season, they have no luck at all, currently standing 5-18 ATS in that role of late. And just when you thought we couldn’t heap any more abuse on Kelly? Also consider that the Irish head coach is 0-5 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points when coming off a win before facing a Big Ten opponent.

Rating: 5 Units

Jeff Traylor came to San Antonio with strong credentials, but he blew the roof off the Alamodome in his first season with the Roadrunners in 2020 – leading them to seven wins and a bowl game. The former associate head coach at Texas, SMU and Arkansas was also a four-time Texas High School Coach of the Year, and led his squads to five state championship game appearances, three state titles and a dozen district crowns. Whew! Safe to say UTSA hit a home run with the hire of this legendary high school coach. It’s paid off at the recruiting window, too, where UTSA moved up 31 spots this season. Behind a team loaded to the gills with experience, it only looks to get better. Las Vegas oddsmaker and Power Rating guru Kenny White pegged the Roadrunners as the deepest team with the most returning experience in 2021. We’re all-in with Kenny. Since joining the FBS, UTSA is 18-12-1 ATS as a non-conference dog, including 6-0 ATS when taking fewer than 8 points, and 3-0 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win.

Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day

Will Josh Heupel be the answer for the Vols, who've not only hit the skids (245-118 point deficit 7-of-last-8, & must overcome transfer losses). But if there ever was a tonic, the Falcons provide it, with 0-9 ATS road record, ceding 43 point per game in their last 24 tilts

Rating: 4 Unit NFLX Game of the Week

The critical keys to successfully handicapping the NFL preseason
are rather simple: being aware of head coaches and their approach to the preseason, identifying games of importance, and knowing the quarterback rotation. In the case of the Ravens, they check all three boxes tonight. There is no coach in the league that makes winning a priority during the preseason more than John Harbaugh. In fact,  Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is
18-0 SU and 16-1-1 ATS in the preseason since 2016.

10* Total of the Week

The 0ver is 15-4-2 in Twins last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning record, 21-6 in Twins last 27 during game 2 of a series, and 26-10-3 in Twins last 39 vs. a team with a winning record. While the over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 interleague home games, 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter, and 5-1-1 in Cardinals last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Rating: 10 Unit Total of the Month

Heaney (6-7, 5.32 ERA) gave up two runs on four hits in seven innings in a 3-2 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Thursday. That result couldn't have come soon enough for Heaney, considering his previous outings. The 30-year-old posted a 1-4 record with an 8.79 ERA in his previous five starts. So perhaps it's no surprise that Heaney gave himself a little pep talk after each inning against the Twins. Heaney will be opposed Wednesday by Rockies right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.06), who has surrendered six runs or more in four of his 15 starts. The most recent such occurrence came July 16 when he was rocked for seven runs and nine hits in just four innings of a 10-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Rating: 10 Unit10* Top Play Total

Hernandez and company will try their luck against right-hander Luis Patino (1-2, 4.87 ERA), who will get the nod on Thursday after being added to the taxi squad from Triple-A Durham. "I don't know if we have an exact message to give him, but we know we want him to start," Rays manager Kevin Cash said of the 21-year-old Patino. "He's done good things in Triple-A. Young pitcher that we've got to find a way to give him a little bit of a lane, create a path for him to take off here for us. And hopefully, (Thursday) is the start of that." Patino last pitched for Tampa Bay on July 2, allowing seven runs on as many hits in 5 1/3 innings in an 11-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. He then yielded five earned runs in his next two appearances with the Bulls.

Rating: 10 Unit MLB Total of the Month

With Joe Ross still battling right elbow inflammation, Washington right-hander Paolo Espino (2-2, 3.33 ERA) will start. He last pitched in Friday's 24-8 loss to the Padres, allowing three runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. His last start came on July 9 against the Giants, when he allowed three runs in 3 2/3 innings.  Espino is 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA in two career meetings with the Marlins, including a two-inning appearance on this season on June 25, when he allowed two runs, one earned, and three hits. All-Star left-hander Trevor Rogers (7-6, 2.31) faces the Nationals for the second time this season -- and his career. On May 2, he took the loss, giving up three runs on four hits over five innings. In his last start, the rookie gave up three runs -- two earned -- in four innings of a loss to the Braves. He struck out a season-low four batters and walked two.

Rating: 3 UnitMLB Play of the Day

This would normally be Jacob deGrom's spot in the rotation for the Mets, but the Cy Young heavy favorite is on the injured list (as is star shortstop Francisco Lindor). Thus, it's fade time with Jerad Eickhoff (0-1, 4.97). In his lone road start, he was knocked around for five runs in D.C. The Mets aren't very good on the road as it is. Reds pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez has had back-to-back quality starts.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

The Royals will look to rebound from a loss to the Baltimore Orioles and take a series win this afternoon in Kansas City. The Orioles will send Matt Harvey (3-10, 7.70 ERA) to the mound, while fellow right-hander Carlos Hernandez (1-0, 4.98) will start for the Royals. Baltimore won Saturday with a big, early outburst. The Orioles scored two in the second and five in the third to build a 7-0 lead en route to an 8-4 victory. Harvey has lost nine straight decisions after starting the season 3-1. In his 12 starts since winning his third game, he's given up at least six earned runs four times. He's also had three more starts with five earned runs allowed.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

The underdog Cubs were battling for us in the bottom of the eighth of a 4-4 game last night, when something clicked in manager David Ross’s brain that he should do his best to lose the game. First, he summoned something called Ryan Tepera from the bullpen to give up four runs while getting only two outs. Then, he called upon Trevor McGill to get the last out. He didn’t. McGill gave up 6 more runs on 4 hits and 2 walks, 2 home runs in that mix, failing to retire a batter. Tonight, Megill’s younger brother Tylor starts for the Mets. Remember
how Don Corleone scolded Sonny, “Never take sides against the family!”? Well, the heck with that. It’s not our family and that was a scripted movie. Vendetta!!!! Revenge!! We are dead-set against the Megill family here, hoping for whatever poison that was running through Trevor to keep going through Tylor with an “o” (come on, man), who makes his second Major League start. His first was against the Braves six days ago, when he went 4 1/3 innings allowing 3 hits and 2 runs in a 7-3 Mets win. He had the good fortune to be matched that night against Kyle Wright, whose career ERA and WHIP are 6.56 and 1.89. What was Wright even doing there? The score was 5-0 Mets after 2 innings but Megill still couldn’t last the 5 innings to get credit for the “W.” Tonight, it will hopefully be more of a “Welcome to the Big Leagues” after Megill’s exposure to the Atlanta batters six days ago plus Charlie Morton, no introduction needed, as the opposing starter.

Rating: 3 Units MLB Play of the Day

Well, speak of the devil, it’s J.A. Happ’s turn to start for the Twins. Following yesterday’s rainout, Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli has opted to go with the struggling southpaw instead of skipping him and allowing Kenta Maeda his usual turn, despite the fact that the fewest number of runs scored by the opponent in a Happ start in May and June has been 5, with him giving up the vast majority of them. The guy needed 108 pitches to get through 4 2/3 innings vs. the Reds on Monday, when he walked 5 and gave up 2 home runs. Indians’ rookie Sudden Sam Hentges, like Kyle Muller above, gets his second MLB start after a very good first one that can’t be taken too seriously. But Hentges is in one of those situations where he is eligible to be carried by the baseball gods, as a native Minnesotan who grew up a Twins fan living and going to school 20 minutes from Target Field. In this stadium, 2014, he pitched a complete-game, high school State Championship victory. A kid gets only one chance in his life to make his first-ever start against the hometown team that didn’t draft him.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

The White Sox just lost a four-game series at Houston. They are bullies, bottom-feeders who feast upon the weak. We’ve noted how they’ve been great as the favorite (37-17), but lousy as underdogs (2-12). Besides being swept in four games by the Astros, they also got swept in a road series at the Yankees recently — and the Yankees aren’t juggernauts this season. But in going from Houston to Pittsburgh, the White Sox are transitioning in opponent from the highest-scoring team in Major League Baseball, to the lowest-scoring team. That’s a fact, Jack. The Astros average 5.68 runs per game, the Pirates a mere 3.50. The White Sox have thrived when the opponent starts a left-handed pitcher; we’ve been through that before. At the Pirates’ home park, Forbes Fi… no, Three Riv… no whatever it’s called, lefty Tyler Anderson has a 3.79 ERA vs. 6.06 on the road. But in terms of Batting Average Against, opposing batters have a .269 BAA here, slightly lower .252 BAA on the road. Right-handed batters have a .526 Slugging Percentage against him, while lefties’ SP is only .239. Good night to be just about every guy in the White Sox lineup?  Meantime, Lucas Giolito is a stingy pitcher (3.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 103-27 K-BB in 81 2/3 IP) pitching to a lineup that struggles to score runs and has the fewest home runs (51, 15 fewer than the next-lowest HR team, the Arizona SOBs who beat us last night).

Rating: 10 Unit MLB Total of the Month

Things can turn around in quickly in Major League Baseball. Take these two teams for example. The Padres came into this series having lost seven of eight while the Reds were on a six-game win streak. Fast forward to the present and it's the Padres looking to finish a four-game sweep on Sunday. They've averaged six runs per game in this series and should have a "good time" at the plate today facing the embattled Luis Castillo, who has a 3-11 team start record for the year. Castillo has been better of late, but he's been facing teams that he was familiar with. Opponents are still batting .275 against Castillo, who has a WHIP of 1.51.

10* Total of the Month

Cleveland right-hander Cal Quantrill (0-2, 3.11 ERA) is expected to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Wil Crowe (0-4, 6.75 ERA). Quantrill is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three career appearances, two of them starts, against Pittsburgh. Consider that the over is 20-6-1 in Indians last 27 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 10 Unit NHL Total of the Month

Consider that the over is 5-2 in Lightning last 7 games as a favorite and 12-5 in Lightning last 17 games as a road favorite. While the over is  7-3-2 in Hurricanes last 12 games a home underdog.

NBA Play of the Day

Despite a poor shooting night from Damian Lillard, Portland crushed Denver on Saturday. One of the keys to playing well against Portland is to contain their starting guards but Denver allowed the Blazers Norman Powell to go off for a career-high 29 points. That kind of defense has to be addressed. Austin Rivers came back to earth on Saturday and he figured to do just that considering he was sitting on his couch a few weeks ago going through the want ads. Three of the Denver starters Friday were just 8 for 25 from the floor and Michael Porter Jr. took only 3 shots. In the last 2 games Nikola Jokic totaled 6 assists. During the season, Jokic was 6th in the league in that category. Bam Adebayo was the only other center in the top 30. Last season, Denver had 2 successful Game 5s before losing to the Lakers in the Conference Finals. First off, they were down 3 to 1 to Utah and came back to the Mile High and won Game 5 by 10 points. In the next series, they were down 3 to 1 to the Clippers and then won the Game 5 in L.A. and eventually made it three in a row to win the series against the Clips. Coach Malone: “Maybe this could be a wake-up call for our starting group, just to play harder. Good things happen when you play hard, and we didn’t play anywhere close to hard enough tonight.”

Rating: 10 units

After opening the series with soft-tossing left-hander Rich Hill, hard-thrower Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.57 ERA) starts for Tampa Bay. On Wednesday, he allowed three hits in eight innings to go along with 11 strikeouts against the Kansas City Royals. Glasnow is 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees, including 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in New York.

MLB Play of the Day

The Rockies are 3-20 away from Coors Field. Godawful, eh? But they’ll win more than three games on the road. Hopefully that milestone is reached tonight in Pittsburgh, the National League’s last-place team with MLB’s worst Run Differential (-84). The Pirates average only 3.64 runs per game in their home park, where they are 8-14. If you can’t win on the road, it helps to be facing a bad host, right? Jon Gray has been the Rockies’ best starter with a 1.18 WHIP. The Pirates he’s faced are just 6-for-32 against him, 13-1 K-BB, Slugging Percentage of .157. Early listings have the Pirates switching Mitch Keller to Game 2 against Austin Gomber, with J.T. Brubaker to oppose Gray. Fine with us. Brubaker has allowed 15 hits and 12 runs in his last two starts, which totaled 11 innings. Among the 15 hits were 4 home runs. Yesterday’s rainout gave the Colorado bullpen a break after a double-header against the Mets the previous day.

Rating: 10 Unit NHL Total of the Week

Consider that the over is 4-1 in Penguins last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game and 10-3 in Penguins last 13 road games. While the over is 3-1-1 in Islanders last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. In addition the over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in New York.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

Lance Lynn gave the White Sox 7 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball last night against the franchise which, after six seasons of pitching for them, five of them with a winning Won-Loss record, sent him on his way to what is currently a four-season, four-team, money-raking journey for the guy. The Cardinals had that coming to them from the baseball spirits, especially since Tony LaRussa, their former manager from 1995-2011, is leading the White Sox ten years after the Cardinals thought they’d put him out to pasture forever after two World Series wins, three NL pennants and nine post-season appearances. How satisfying a win was it? Glad we asked that question for you: “That was probably the most satisfying win in my career aside from the playoffs,” Lynn said. “I definitely enjoyed it.” Alrighty, then. But it’s a tough act to follow for their starter tonight, Lucas Giolito. He’s a fine and dandy young pitcher coming off 8 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball at Minnesota — so he is his own tough act to follow, isn’t he now? Good things happen for the Cardinals when Jack Flaherty starts. So far in 2021, nine (9) good things (wins) and no (zero, 0) bad things (losses).

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day

The Padres had the pleasure of facing the weakened Mariners bullpen over the weekend. Milwaukee’s is full strength and better to begin with. Nobody’s pen has been better than San Diego’s. So, you have two good bullpens behind two good starters. Brewers hitters have 0 home runs, a measly .185 Slugging Percentage and 1 RBI against Blake Snell in 39 at-bats against him. Padres hitters have 0 home runs, a .195 Slugging Percentage and only 4 RBI in 43 at-bats against Brandon Woodruff, who enters with a 1.58 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 65-14 K-BB in 57 innings pitched. Snell has 60 Ks in 40 IP.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

Chris Bassitt has started Oakland victories at Boston and at Minnesota for us in his last two outings. Tonight he’s on the road again facing, like the Twins, a last-place opponent. The Angels have a -47 Run Differential, closing in on Detroit for worst in the American League. They were a lousy team before Mike Trout went on the Injured List and are 1-4 since that day, winning when Alex Cobb threw some blistering innings for them, and us, against the — last-place — Twins. Two weeks ago, the Orange County Register reported that Angels manager Joe Maddon “values Patrick Sandoval as middle-innings closer.” He values him so much in that role that he’s starting today. “I love middle-inning closers. That’s been a big part of the success that I’ve been around in the past.” Yeah, well, try not to live in the past. That’s what propelled him to bring lefty Jose Quintana to the Angels, for yet another loss last night, when his “middle-inning closer” Mike Mayers turned a 4-3 lead into a 6-4 deficit in a hurry. Some reports say “Dylan Bundy” for the Angels, who’s been getting hammered lately, falling in line with what happens to most pitchers when they come to the Angels. Either, or.

Rating: 10 UnitNHL Game of the Week

For the Islanders, the intrigue extends beyond the growing disdain between the teams. Trotz expressed disappointment Thursday night with goalie Semyon Varlamov, who allowed the five goals on just 27 shots. Varlamov had missed Sunday's Game 1 due to an undisclosed injury and watched rookie Ilya Sorokin registered 39 saves in a 4-3 overtime win. In Tuesday's Game 2, Varlamov surrendered two goals in the first 13:07 of a 2-1 loss that tied the series. Varlamov was the Islanders' goalie for each of their first 14 games in the playoff bubble last summer. But after back-to-back losses in Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Philadelphia Flyers, Trotz benched Varlamov for Thomas Greiss, who authored a shutout in a 4-0 win in Game 7. Varlamov started all six games of the conference finals against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Trotz wasn't about to publicly identify his goalie Friday afternoon ahead of Game 4. But while he said upon reviewing the game he was less critical of Varlamov's performance, he also sounded like someone still contemplating a goalie change.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day

We’ve been through this drill before but let’s lay out the details never the less: The AL Central -leading White Sox arrive in New York with the best batting average against left-handed pitching (.297), the highest On base Percentage (.376) and the best Slugging Percentage (.486). They’ve had only 296 at-bats vs. lefties, compared to 693 for the Houston Astros. While it may seem like a sample too short to be serious, it’s an extension of last season when they were 14-0 when the opponent started a lefty. They are 9-2 in that scenario this season, averaging 8.6 runs per game when the other side starts a lefty. The Yankees comply with Chicago’s “go” situation, serving up Jordan Montgomery. Throw out his stats. The White Sox’ Carlos Rodon won’t be pitching a no-hitter like he did in April but he is enjoying a resurgence. The team is 5-1 when he starts. He last faced the Yankees in 2019, at Yankee Stadium, winning a 6-2 game in which he pitched 6 innings and allowed 3 hits.

Rating: 4 Units MLB Play of the Day

The Astros are hitting .284 vs. left-handed pitching, third highest in MLB with the third highest OPS. Oakland lefty Cole Irvin has been pitching well lately, getting his ERA down from 7.45 after two starts to 3.02 entering this game. However, the 7.45 after two starts was totally against the Astros’ lineup, against whom he totaled 9 2/3 innings while giving up 8 runs and 12 hits, whiffing only 5. So, good luck to him… some other time, of course. The Astros are awaiting the return of Framber Valdez to their rotation and until then, they must make do with a guy like second-season spot starter Luis Garcia in the rotation. He’s been doing fine but he is only 47 1/3 innings into his Major League career.

Rating: 4 Units

The Blue Jays held up their end of the bargain last night with 8 runs in their home park, where they’d entered averaging 6.14. But the Red Sox ran into a buzzsaw. Some of them had handled Hyun-Jin Ryu in the past. But last night, they did not. Running into Ross Stripling can hopefully offset last night’s blanking. Stripling has yet to show that switching from the National League to the American will be good for him, with a 5.91 ERA and 1.69 WHIP so far, only 21 1/3 IP from five starts. Last season he pitched 15 2/3 innings for Toronto after getting traded to them, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Not lookin’ good for the guy.

Rating: 10 Unit Total of the Week

Consider that the over is 18-5-3 in Capitals last 26 games playing on 1 days rest and 6-2-1 in Capitals last 9 games as a road underdog. While the over is 4-1-1 in Bruins last 6 games as a home favorite and 4-1-1 in Bruins last 6 home games

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day

Oh, it would so easy to believe that the Giants’ righthander Anthony DeSclafani — allowed to walk in free agency by Cincinnati after five seasons with the Reds — would come back to Great American Ballpark with an “I’ll show you SOBs what you’re missing!” kind of performance and shut down his former teammates with a vengeance. DeSclafani’s first eight starts with the Giants have produced All-Star quality numbers: 2.14 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 41-11 K-BB in 46 1/3 innings. But he was never a dominant pitcher in this ballpark, in part because he isn’t as effective against left-handed hitters, and also because GAP is kind to left-handed hitters. The lefty batters on the Reds are currently hitting .273 (#3 in the category) with a .818 OPS (#2). They’ve hit 28 home runs in 587 at-bats, which is third most total homers by lefties. (For favorable comparison, Arizona and these Giants have 30 homers apiece by lefthanded batters, in 613 and 893 at-bats by them.) We can’t, with good conscience, accept Luis Castillo as a side play against DeSclafani. He’s been too horrible (7.71 ERA, 1.79 WHIP), including on April 13 in San Francisco when, staked to a 4-0 first-inning lead, he gave up two home runs in the bottom of the first to lefties Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Crawford to make it 4-4 with eight innings still to play! But we can combine the potential power of DeSclafani and Castillo into an attack on the Total

MLB Play of the Day

A’s righthander Chris Bassitt did right for us in Boston earlier in the week when he pitched 7 innings of 3-hit, 2-run, 10-0 K-BB ball in victory. So we’ll go back-to-back Bassitt today. Neither Kenta Maeda nor the Twins have done right for many people so far in the 2021 season, with Minnesota living in Detroit-ville among American League Central teams, having won a mere .351 percent of their games, fewest wins in Major League Baseball (13). Last-place vs. first, and last is favored. Maeda has a 5.08 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Last year those numbers were 2.70 and 0.75, so this season’s numbers are almost doubled! In the event that Maeda rediscovers his old form, there is always the Minnesota bullpen to account for, inventing ways to lose in late innings.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

This is similar to Cleveland’s four-game sweep of Kansas City recently that was followed the next day by a shutout, no-hitter loss at Cincinnati. Tonight we have the Tigers hosting the Cubs after they, too, swept their AL Central division rival, Kansas City, in a three-game series completed yesterday. The Tigers are now thinking who the heck they are, forgetting that they actually are 13-24 with the worst run differential in MLB, -64. While sweeping the poor Royals, current losers of 11 straight, the Detroit bullpen managed several miraculous escapes from self-inflicted damage, living up to its MLB worst ERA (6.55) and WHIP (1.75). Tonight they ask a lefty with a 1-9 career W/L record, and a 5.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after five starts this season, to hold down the Cubs before the bullpen comes in and inevitably gives up runs. Tarik Skubal has appeared in a total of seven games for the Tigers this season and they have lost all seven. The Cubs are only 4-11 on the road but this is the first time they play a road game against a last-place team with a -64 run differential, right? Right.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

The Marlins have a +21 Run Differential but are in fourth place in the NL East. The other four teams in the division have negative run differentials. What’s up with that? Danged if we know. But we do know that Sandy Alcantara, their starter, has a 2.95 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 42-12 K-BB in 42 2/3 innings and that he beat the Brewers 6-2 with 7 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball on Apr. 28 in Milwaukee. Like the Giants with Cueto below, Milwaukee is bringing a relatively old guy, Brett Anderson, off the injured list. He lasted 1/3 of an inning against the Cubs on April 24 before straining his hamstring. 60-year-olds could probably last longer out there without injuring themselves than some of these 30-something MLB pitchers. The Brewers had lost 6 in a row before yesterday’s win here, when the 6 runs they got matched their highest single-game output since May 1. They haven’t scored more than 6 in a game since Moby Dick was a minnow (actually, since beating the Pirates 7-1 on April 17). The fine Milwaukee bullpen has a match in Miami’s, which owns a NL-best 1.01 WHIP.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day

Uh-oh! Steven Matz may be back. The guy who showed up in Matz’ uniform for his first four starts as a member of the Blue Jays looked a lot better than the guy who pitched for the Mets the last few seasons. The new guy
won four straight games and lasted between 5 and 6 1/3 innings and allowed only 1 run in each of his first three starts. But the National League Matz showed up on Apr. 28 and May 3 vs. Washington (oh, his nemesis, for sure!) and then at Oakland: 8 hits and 6 runs allowed in 3 2/3 innings, then 7 hits and 5 runs allowed in 5 innings. A Joe Hardy-like pact with the devil may have been terminated early here. The Astros have won four of five starts made by Cristian Javier, who has a 1.76 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, 30-8 K-BB in 25 2/3 innings.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

All reports indicate that neither Lebron James nor Dennis Schroeder will suit up for the Lakers tonight. Those are the two guys for whom the offense flows its best. They won a game vs. Denver the other night without them, when both teams scored less than 100 points. When you have good defenders, you give yourself a chance to win that way. Kahwi Leonard has been deferring to Clippers’ teammates lately while he plays with a nagging injury.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day

As duly noted on this page five days ago, life generally yields better results to people when they’re not waking up in parked cars at 5 am. For lefthanded starter Danny Duffy of the Royals, currently tied for first place with the White Sox and Indians in the American League Central, this change has resulted in a 4-1 record with a 0.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, with 34-9 K-BB. He got it all started with 6 innings of 2-hit, shutout ball at Cleveland in KC’s 3-0 win on April 5. The Indians are hitting only .198 vs. left-handed pitching and offer up Tristan McKenzie on getaway day of a series they lead 3-0. So, the Royals are playing to avoid being swept in addition to getting a one-game lead on the Indians. McKenzie’s control, or lack of it, suggests that he ain’t up to the task: 18 walks in 18 2/3 innings. Ya’ can’t walk that many guys and expect to win in this league.

Rating: 5 Unit NBA Game of the Week

Lots o’ guys on the Blazers can put the ball in the hole, from many different places on the floor. The Cavaliers, not so much. They score the fewest points per game in the NBA (103.9). Although they are scoring at a better rate lately (1.097 points per possession the last two weeks, better than eight other teams), their defense in this span has been the worst: 1.194 points per possession for the other guys. Cavaliers’ head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, Mr. “Good Problem to Have,” has asked the team that has made the fewest three-pointers per game in the league to take more of them. Nothin’ like taking a bad team and asking it to do more of something it hasn’t done well -- 34% on that shot, next to last on the season and only 34.5% in their 1-9 SU stretch the last 10 games, which includes last night’s overtime loss vs. Phoenix in which they took +12.5 points and did not cover. That’s what bad teams do – lose in a manner you’d think is close to impossible.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

Normally we’d say that ‘What went up must come down’ after the Pacers scored 152 points vs. OKC in their last game. But coming down 28 points from 152 still leaves you with 124, and the opponent is the Wizards, known for their sizable defensive yields (and offensive stat-stuffing). The Stat Guys, Westbrook and Beal, see this as a personal challenge to get to 153 points. ‘Hey, these guys can score. We need to score 40 per quarter!’ Westbook figures to have a free pass to attack the hoop all night long in the absence of Myles Turner, Indiana’s defensive anchor/shot-blocker. First-season Pacers’ head coach Nate Bjorken has ruined their prior defensive systems as he is intent on installing and executing his ‘get it and go’ offensive system from the Raptors. Which is the main reason why they have a losing record. But everybody’s scoring average is up, so no harm done.

Rating: 4 Unit

You have to be a pretty good pitcher for your team to be a -130 favorite in Tampa, who is last year’s AL Champ. Cristian Javier of the Astros is becoming pretty good. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts, and only 8 hits in those 17 innings. Rich Hill usually gives 5 fine innings and gives way to the bullpen that started it all with the bullpen thing, which got them to the World Series last year.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

Life in a parked car at 5 am is no fun and it pretty much inhibits you from being at your best in several key day-to-day responsibilities. Royals lefthander Danny Duffy seems to have finally figured that out, for the time being, and avoided that kind of existence. Although his 5 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball against the Tigers six days ago is next to meaningless because it came against a team that can’t do anything vs. lefties, he’d made three quality starts prior to that. With the Royals still in first place in the American League Central despite last night’s 9-1 loss here, he enters with a WHIP of 1.04, ERA of 0.39. Duffy made three straight starts against the Twins in August last season and got better each time. The Twins won all three. Minnesota acquired Matt Shoemaker from the Angels after L.A. could stomach him no more. He is a long, black-bearded mediocrity and the Twins have lost his last three starts 8-6, 7-0 and 6-2.

Rating: 10 Units10* Total of the Month

Right-hander Lance McCullers (1-1, 5.27 ERA) will start Sunday as the Astros pursue the series sweep. It will mark his first start since he allowed six runs on four hits and three walks with three strikeouts over 3 2/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers while battling an illness on April 14. McCullers had allowed a total of two earned runs with 13 strikeouts over his previous two starts. McCullers is 3-3 with a 3.21 ERA over 13 career starts against the Angels, posting 66 strikeouts over 70 innings. He failed to record an out in his most recent appearance against the Angels, allowing three runs on two hits and three walks in the Astros' 6-5 road loss on Sept. 4, 2020. Right-hander Dylan Bundy (0-2, 4.50) gets the start for the Angels in the series finale. He allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks with six strikeouts over five innings in his previous appearance, a 6-4 loss to the Texas Rangers on April 19.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

While the Hornets have been able to score 60 and 66 points in one first half and one second half during the last week, followed up, and preceded, those halves with very sub-par halves. It’s all part of the ’16-point quarters’ that head coach James Borrego is on record as saying that he expects in the absence of some productive offensive players. They’ve slowed down the pace and have tightened up the defense to help make up for the scoring droughts. Given the way the Celtics have improved their own defense, expect a few of those scoring droughts for the home side this afternoon.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day

The Blue Jays got 3 runs off Tampa’s opener Brent Honeywell, Jr. yesterday, then Ryan Yarbrough gave them 5 2/3 innings of shutout relief, followed by 2 more innings of shutout relief from the finalizers. That’s the Rays’ bullpen people have come to expect, not the one that entered yesterday’s game with an ERA greater than 5.00. Today, they’re really getting creative, starting one of the kids they got from San Diego in the Blake Snell trade, 21-year-old Luis Patino. He’s a good one and by the time they figure him out, the righthander will be outta there, perhaps after only 3 innings. After that, the plan is to bring in lefty Josh Fleming, a second-year pitcher the Blue Jays got 2 hits and 0 runs against in 14 at-bats during his rookie season. Young mystery guns. Good thing the cross-town based Blue Jays are throwing their own stingy lefty, Hyun-Jin Ryu and his 1.04 WHIP, 21-2 K-BB in 24 innings.

MLB Total of the Day

The Over is 4-1-1 in Marlins last 6 games as a road underdog, 11-4-1 in Marlins last 16 during game 3 of a series, and  19-7-1 in Marlins last 27 Saturday games.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day

OMG! Extremely unusual mishaps on and off the field that happened to the Twins while they were on the road shouldn’t happen to a dog. A mean dog. They are the ‘coldest’ team in baseball, 1-9 in their last 10 games, last place in the American League Central. But it just so happens that the opponents they’ve been losing to are the hottest teams in baseball — Oakland, 11-game winning streak; Boston, who’d been 10-1 in their last 11 after taking three of four from Minnesota; Seattle, tied for first place with Oakland in the AL West. Following a curtailed trip that was cut to four games from seven, they return home — not the most serene place in the world right now but home, nevertheless — and take a major drop in class with the Pirates as the visitor. The Twins made the post-season last year, won 60% of their games. This is like a stakes horse that was shipped out of town but could never get the feel of the track and was thrown off its routine when asked to run against a fellow stakes horses on its own home track (Oakland), returning to its home course matched against an out of town allowance horse. The Twins’ bats have been weak vs. lefties but the Pirates didn’t get the memo and will start JT Brubaker, as his teammates who have faced JA Happ try to figure out why they are hitting a combined .131 against him in 83 at-bats.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

Unrealistic for the Cavaliers to up and duplicate what they did against the Bulls the other night — scored 121 points. They average only 104.1 ppg, fewest in the NBA. They won 103-90 in Charlotte nine days ago. Opponents are onto the Hornets in the absence of key offensive players Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk. The latter isn’t really a consistent offensive threat, anyway. Head coach James Borrego is actually expecting these weak-butt 16 point quarters. The other day he said something like, ‘I have to find something for when we have those 16-point quarters…” Hey, guess what? After you have the 16-point quarter, it’s too late to find anything and you probably don’t have it, anyway. Since scoring only 90 in the loss vs. Cleveland, the Hornets have scored only 97 and 91 in defeats at New York and Chicago.

Rating: 4 UnitNBA Play of the Day

Atlanta lost to the Knicks in overtime on Wednesday while Miami stepped on the Spurs in Texas. Trae Young is out for this game and Clint Capela is iffy. This is a big game for both clubs. Teams cannot not blow games at this juncture of the season with only a handful of opportunities left. Atlanta beat this club in March but Miami had excuses. The Heat had the lead after three quarter and then they could only muster 14 points in the last 12 minutes. Jimmy Butler did not dress for that game.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day

Athletics’ left-hander Corey Irvin and Orioles’ right-hander Jorge Lopez aren’t headed for Cooperstown unless angels from above start guiding their every move. Irvin just pitched shutout ball over 6 innings in Detroit, a team that can’t hit left-handed pitching (worst average in what you call your Major League Baseball against lefties, .174). Today, the task is harder in a smaller ballpark against the Orioles’ lineup, not an All-Star collection of offensive talent but clearly better than Detroit’s, overall and against lefties. For his part, Lopez must pitch to the hottest team in baseball, lineup that has contributed to a current 11-game winning streak and is averaging better than 6 runs per game on the road. After getting 7 hits in their first 15 at-bats against Lopez with only 1 strikeout, the Oakland batters were probably thinking, ‘Can’t wait to face this guy again!’

Rating: 5 Unit MLB Total of the Day

Right-hander Alex Cobb (1-0, 4.63 ERA) will start for the Angels today after having his previous start pushed back due to unspecified reasons. Cobb was initially slated to start on Sunday but that game was postponed after the Minnesota Twins had COVID-19 issues. Cobb last started on April 12, allowing three runs on four hits and one walk with 10 strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings in a 10-3 road win over the Kansas City Royals. He is 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA over three career starts against the Astros, whom he last faced on July 31, 2017, while with the Rays. Consider that the over is 19-8-1 in Angels last 28 games as an underdog.

NBA Play of the Day

Orlando has lost 10 of 11, most recently scoring 24 points in every quarter, the wrong type of consistency. The Magic played way too much one-on-one basketball and only had 13 assists. The Pelicans have lost four straight, three of them at the wire. Orlando is an opponent that usually isn’t around at that point. Naji Marshall is a New Orleans bright spot coming out of that defeat. The New Jersey product was 6 for 15 from the floor, with 6 boards, 7 assists and a pair of thefts vs. Brooklyn. The Pelicans lost to the Magic earlier this month in overtime but there were reasons. New Orleans blew a fourth-quarter lead in that game and they turned it over 24 times. On top of those incidents, Brandon Ingram or Zion Williamson never got into the game.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

The Hawks’ rotation is loaded with good-percentage three-point shooters around center Clint Capela, who should own his match-up against the Knicks’ Nerlens Noel if he can stay out of foul trouble. Good offensive players such as Bogdan Bodanovich, Lou Williams for Atlanta, and Derrick Rose of New York, have not played in either one, or both, of the meetings between the Hawks and Knicks so far, which ended with 221 points in January, 235 points in February. By our math, those numbers are larger than tonight’s total of 217.5.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day

When two teams lazy with the defense (118.1 and 118.6 ppg allowed, #28 and #30 in a 30-team league) get together and the home team is #9 in scoring offense, and the road team is fully capable of scoring a lot of points when most of its best players are playing, and was able to score 116 vs. the Kings when they recently met in Minnesota, then getting cute with an Under doesn’t seem like the way to go. Sacramento center Richaun Holmes thinks that he should receive more attention for his defense, and maybe he’s right. But his ability to play it well enough hasn’t rubbed off on his teammates, and Holmes has missed the last four games anyway, and won’t play tonight. The one guy out of five who buys into defense ain’t there.

Rating: 10 Unit NHL Game of the Year

Carolina got a strong performance from goalie Petr Mrazek (33 saves), but the addition of newcomer Jani Hakanpaa appears to have solidified the defense. In his only move at last week's trade deadline, Hurricanes general manager Don Waddell set out to find the missing piece of the team puzzle. To shore up the rear guard, Waddell traded defenseman Haydn Fleury to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for the right-handed-shooting Hakanpaa and a 2022 sixth-round draft pick. Consider that Carolina is 5-1-2 in its past eight games while Tampa Bay is 4-4-0 in that same span.

Rating: 10 Unit MLB Total of the Year

Even though Logan Webb had been placed on the injured list because of side effects from the COVID-19 vaccine, he's expected to start Tuesday. Webb (0-1, 4.76 earned run average) will be making his fourth appearance and his third start. Webb has never faced the Phillies. The Phillies will hand the ball to Zack Wheeler (1-2, 3.00 ERA), who will be making his fourth start. After a strong opening start, Wheeler has allowed 17 hits in the last two, both losses. In Wheeler's career against the Giants, he's 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA in seven starts. Consider that the Over is 12-5-1 in Phillies last 18 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

NBA Total of the Day

‘We couldn’t get stops when we needed to’ has been a common statement made by an Indiana player in recent post-game laments. They can score and they’re not shy about putting up shots — an NBA-high 97.2 of them in their last five games, and both the Pacers and Spurs are in the top five in shot attempts per game for the season. Indiana played yesterday. Therefore, from the get-go, the rested and ready Spurs should come out with their younger legs and attack the Pacers’ relatively weak interior defense, an overrated part of Indiana’s game with Myles Turner’s blocks totals impressing a lot of people who don’t see the big picture. At the end of regulation in San Antonio, the teams were at 126-126. That’s 252 points, 21.5 more points than tonight’s total.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

“The Giants are getting a much-needed addition to the rotation with Alex Wood set to take the hill against the Miami Marlins on Sunday…” So says some cliche-ridden report (‘much-needed’, and ‘take the hill,’ geez). Whatever. Maybe he’ll pitch a great game and help prevent them from being swept in this three-game series. But the Reds and Dodgers didn’t want him, and the Dodgers’ disposal of him came after re-acquiring him from Cincinnati before the start of last season. The Giants signed Wood to a one-year, $3 million contract for 2021 and he thanked them for it by opening the season on the injured list, which is par for the course for a Major League pitcher. Wood throws left; so far in 2021 the Marlins happen to be hitting .310 against lefties, #3 in MLB with the #1 OPS of .922. Giants’ batters haven’t faced Pablo Lopez since May, 2019, when he went 6 innings throwing 4-hit, 1-run ball against them on this field.

Rating: 5 Units

MLB Total of the Month

Pittsburgh right-hander Trevor Cahill (0-1, 8.00 ERA) is scheduled to face Milwaukee left-hander Brett Anderson (1-1, 4.50 ERA).  Consider that the over is 21-8-2 in Pirates last 31 during game 2 of a series, 34-15-2 in Pirates last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter, and 36-17-1 in Pirates last 54 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Rating: 4 Unit Total of the Day

The first meeting in Boston was 96-95 game that included Lebron James and Anthony Davis for the Lakers. That’s a lot of points, from guys who get fouled a lot, missing for the re-match as far as the Lakers are concerned. They might have to get lucky to reach our forecast of 90.

Rating: 5 Unit Final Four Game of the Week

Gonzaga has been full throttle throughout the NCAA Tournament, defeating Oklahoma by 16 points, Creighton by 18 and USC by 19. All three of those teams certainly would have been favored over this UCLA team before the Bruins magical run. While the Bruins have caught lighting in a bottle and are playing well, their lack of explosiveness on offense is going to make for an uphill climb against the Zags. UCLA’s Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez have been tasked with carrying the load for the Bruins, with marginal help from elsewhere. Gonzaga on the other hand has the luxury of multiple players who can create and make shots. Remarkably, Gonzaga now owns three of the Top 10 players in KenPom’s Player of the Year race. That trio of Drew Timme, Jalen Suggs and Corey Kispert will prove to simply be too much to keep up with. As best as he will try, Mick Cronin will be the next coach in line who unsuccessfully attempts to slow the tempo against Mark Few’s bunch. Look for UCLA’s three point defense to run out of luck, as the Bruins have been fortunate to see opposing teams during this run make only 27.7% of attempts from downtown.

Rating: 4 Unit Midwest Region Play of the Day

Houston is likely to again face a bunch of zone defense when they take on the upstart Oregon State team. Houston has seen nearly every type of zone imaginable after having played in a zone heavy American Athletic Conference and having just taken down Syracuse’s 2-3 attack. The Cougars will again attack the offensive glass, where they’re elite, as the Beavers rank 228th in defensive rebound rate. Houston guard DeJon Jarreau is also a terrific candidate to shut down Oregon State leading scorer, Ethan Thompson. Jarreau frustrated and shut down Syracuse’s Buddy Boeheim on Saturday, and his leadership continues to lead the way for the Cougars. Along with Jarreau, Houston guards Marcus Sasser and Quentin Grimes have proven to give Houston enough perimeter ability to successfully create offense that is efficient enough given their prowess on defense and on the glass.

Rating: 4 Unit West Region Play of the Day

USC is proving to be too big and too athletic for many teams to contend
with. The Trojans were just that in their last meeting against Oregon on February 22nd. Even without starting forward Isaiah Mobley during that contest, the Trojans won by a score of 72-58. USC allowed just 40.0% on two-point attempts for the Ducks. USC currently owns the nation’s best interior defense, and look for that to carry them forward to the Elite 8. In a dominant win over Kansas on Monday, the Mobley brothers, both Evan and Isaiah, totaled 27 points, 21 rebounds and four blocked shots.

Rating: 4 Unit South Region Play of the Day

This will be Villanova’s first real test without point guard Collin Gillepsie, and a terrific Bears backcourt is waiting to pounce. Baylor’s Davion Mitchell is one of the best defensive players in the country and will be ready to hound Villanova’s replacements at the guard spot. Baylor ranks 3rd-best nationally in turnover rate on the defensive end and has the ability to disrupt the Wildcats offense. The Bears backcourt is too good, too versatile and too experienced to not handle this mismatch. Villanova’s only chance will come from post player Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to dominate inside, but Baylor’s physicality will provide a strong test.

NIT Game of the Week

Memphis has improved considerably since the start of February, with their only two losses during the last seven weeks coming at the hands of Houston. Even then, the Tigers were competitive, covering both games against the Cougars. Penny Hardaway has stated that his defensive system is now fully installed, and it’s paid dividends for his Memphis team. The Tigers defense now ranks 2nd-best nationally in defensive efficiency rating.

Rating: 3 Unit NIT Play of the Day

Richmond will at least be without starting center Grant Golden, and starting guard Blake Francis remains as a game-time decision. The Spiders will have to deal with a physical and big Mississippi State team without Golden. The Bulldogs should own the rebounding battle as well as the paint. Mississippi State will be led on the offensive end by starting guard D.J. Stewart, who produced 20 points and six assists in an impressive six-point victory over Saint Louis in the opening round of the NIT.

Rating: 3 Unit CBI Tournament Play of the Day

Pepperdine didn’t show much excitement to be in the CBI Tournament
for much of Monday’s game, trailing an inferior Longwood team at halftime. While the Waves did wake up in the second half, they won’t be able to rely on their talent to bail them out today against Bellarmine. Bellarmine is exceptionally coached and will have an advantage on the sideline with Scott Davenport going against Lorenzo Romar. Bellarmine’s precision offense will prove to be a tricky prep for Romar and his staff with such a short turnaround.

Rating: 10 Unit NBA 10* Total of the Month

Consider that the over is  4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a straight up win, 11-1 in Jazz last 12 Monday games, 7-1 in Jazz last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400 and 6-2 in Jazz last 8 games as a road favorite.  While the over is19-8 in Bulls last 27 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points and 7-3 in Bulls last 10 games as an underdog.

Rating: 3 Unit CBB Play of the Day

Florida State’s athleticism and versatility on the defensive end allows the Seminoles to switch constantly, creating a roadblock for Colorado’s motion offense. Georgetown proved not to be able to guard Colorado on Saturday, practically ignoring the three-point line. That won’t be the case against a Florida State defense better equipped to utilize their size and speed. Junior RaiQuan Gray continues to impress for Florida State, as the swiss army knife forward totaled 17 points, seven rebounds and three assists in an opening road win over UNC Greensboro.

Rating: 5 Unit CBB Game of the Week

UCLA impressed on Saturday night, winning wire to wire against BYU. Mick Cronin’s group defended at a high level and former Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang paced the offense with 27 points. The Bruins catch a bit of a break here as Texas failed miserably against Abilene Christian. The Wildcats pulled off the upset despite shooting 29.8% from the floor. That type of performance won’t be near good enough to advance again.

Rating: 5 Unit Tournament Game of the Week

It required less than one minute of game action for the second-seeded Houston Cougars to face their first measure of adversity in this NCAA Tournament. Senior DeJon Jarreau, unanimously described as the leader of the veteran Cougars, was lost to a right hip pointer and spent the remainder of the game rooting from the sideline with heating pads stuffed in his shorts. Without Jarreau spearheading their offense and defense -- Jarreau was named American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year -- the Cougars (25-3) appeared to be a rudderless ship for most of the first half against Cleveland State. Jarreau's status for Sunday is unclear. But what Houston received in his absence, notably from forwards Reggie Chaney, Justin Gorham, Brison Gresham and Fabian White Jr., eased any frayed nerves. Defensively, the Cougars limited Cleveland State to one field goal over the first 10 minutes of the second half. Houston also grabbed 16 offensive rebounds. Consider that Houston is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 Sunday games.

Rating: 4 Unit Mismatch of the Day

When it comes to shooters and scorers, there might not be anyone hotter than Syracuse's Buddy Boeheim, the coach's son. Boeheim scored 30 points as Syracuse (now 17-9) beat San Diego State 78-62 on Friday, making 11 of 15 shots from the field, including 7 of 10 from 3-point range. He has back-to-back 30-point games -- he had 31 in an ACC tournament loss to Virginia -- and is averaging 26.2 points over his past five outings. Syracuse is trying to reach the Sweet 16 for the third time as a double-digit seed. The Orange made a Final Four run as a 10th seed in 2016 and won two games as a No. 11 seed in 2018. Consider that West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and  1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Rating: 3 unit Play of the Day

Baylor continues to move further away from their mid-Feb. program pause. The Bears have slowly shaken off the rust and clearly still do have another gear that they can hit this March. The Bears are exceptional on the perimeter, with Jared Butler leading the way on offense and Davion Mitchell doing so on defense. Mitchell is fully capable of shutting down Wisconsin guard D’Mitrik Trice, leaving the Badgers offense handicapped. If there’s a weakness for this Baylor team, it likely is their interior defense, which isn’t likely to be exploited by Wisconsin (#286, 46.5% two-pointers.

Rating: 10 Unit NHL Game of the Week

The Islanders had moved into first place in the East Division during a nine-game winning streak and 12-game point streak that was snapped in a 3-1 loss to the Washington Capitals on Tuesday night. Then they gave up the three goals to the Flyers on Thursday in less than 12 minutes of the second period, when they were outshot 12-5. The Islanders scored their three third-period goals in fewer than seven minutes, but their chances to escape with a point, or the victory, evaporated when the Flyers' Claude Giroux won a faceoff against Mathew Barzal deep in the New York zone. Lindblom, open in the slot, fired a shot past goalie Semyon Varlamov, who was screened by Giroux. Consider that the favorite is 56-22 in the last 78 meetings.

Rating: 3 Unit Play of the Day

The Gauchos emphasis on the defensive end of the floor aligns well for an upset of the higher seeded Blue Jays. Santa Barbara ranks 15th-best in limiting three-point attempts and they have the ability to slow the game and keep Creighton in the half court. Creighton has not looked the same as the controversy surrounding head coach Greg McDermott continues to loom over the team.

Rating: 4 Units

While talent is on the side of LSU in this matchup, coaching and composure resides on the side of the Bonnies. St. Bonaventure head coach Mark Schmidt will look to slow the game down and force an impatient LSU team to execute in the half court. Schmidt has said if the score is in the 60’s, he likes his team’s chances.

Rating: 3 Unit Mismatch of the Day

Georgetown has simply turned into a different team since Patrick Ewing changed his starting lineup following a program pause. The insertion of Chudier Bile has made the Hoyas bigger, more athletic and more tenacious on the defensive end. Since that move, Georgetown has compiled a record of 11-3 against the spread. The Hoyas run through the Big East Tournament was not a fluke, as they were playing solid basketball before that stretch.

Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Day

Villanova has not looked nearly the same since losing starting point guard and leader, Collin Gillespie. The Wildcats have lost games to Providence and Georgetown, as they’re trying to reconfigure their offense on the fly. Wildcats head coach Jay Wright likened this Winthrop team to a Creighton team that they’ve struggled with. The Eagles will fly up and down the court and will not be at a size disadvantage that many smaller programs face this time of year. Winthrop owns one of the more unique players in the country in 6’7 guard Chandler Vaudrin, who ranks 8th nationally in assist rate.

Rating: 3 Unit Play of the Day

Virginia Tech and head coach Mike Young will put the brakes on the Gators, as the Hokies own one of the most stout transition defenses in the country. Young recently compared starting guard Wabissa Bede to a brick wall, and he’ll be responsible for slowing down Florida’s Tre Mann. When forced to operate in the half court, the Gators are not nearly as efficient. Virginia Tech’s advantage on the sideline will push them through to the second round.

Rating: 10 Unit 10* NHL Game of the Month

It is likely that Tristan Jarry, who has started 12 of the past 15 games, and DeSmith will split the two games against Boston. For Boston, goaltender Tuukka Rask has been arguably the team's best player. He is 8-4-2 in 14 starts. The Bruins led the East early but are 4-6-2 in their past 12 games. They have not stacked together back-to-back wins since a five-game winning streak over the first two weeks of February. Their 4-0 loss Saturday at home against the New York Rangers emphasized their displeasure with themselves. Consider that Boston is 12-5 in their last 17 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Rating: 5 Unit CBB Total of the Month

Consider that the over is 9-1 in Bearcats last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600,  6-1 in Bearcats last 7 games following a straight up win, 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 games as an underdog, and 16-5 in Bearcats last 21 overall.

Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day

Second of back-to-backs for the host Thunder following yesterday’s crash and burn by our new least favorite basketball team. Hopefully they get what they deserve and lose ten more games consecutively. They are very excited that 7-footer Moses Brown, in his second career start, got a double-double in their 22-point home loss to a Knicks team with three guards out, and one on the floor who can’t score (Frank Nktilina). Good God. Rested Memphis can be a defensively harassing pest on any given night, especially when they didn’t play the night before and the other guys did. Actually, when both sides were playing second of back-to-backs in Memphis on Feb. 17, OKC turned it over 18 times and lost 122-113.

Rating: 3 Unit A-10 Play of the Day

St. Bonaventure enters Sunday with an experienced team, prepared to handle the pressure of VCU. The Bonnies have stability in the backcourt with Kyle Lofton and Dominick Welch, who have helped the Bonnies rank 79th-best in turnover rate nationally. St. Bonaventure has a group of juniors and a bit more experience than VCU, fueled by past failures. “The whole entire time leading up to this game, I have been seeing stuff on TV about how Saint Louis won that game (2019),” Osun Osunniyi said. “That’s just giving us extra motivation.” The Bonnies will lead the way, having held four straight teams below 0.88 points per possession.