Rating: 4 Unit CBB Play of the Day

Consider that the Bulldogs are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win, and 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. While the Gaels are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games, 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Play of the Day

Embattled Bucks are finding it difficult playing with the “defending champion” target on their backs this season. For openers, they are just 10-20 ATS in their last twenty home games this campaign, including 3-13 ATS against .500 or greater foes. Meanwhile, the new-look Nets will be out to avenge not only a pair of same-season defeats at the hands of Milwaukee tonight, but also a 7-game playoff series loss to the Bucks last season as well. With Brooklyn 10-5-2 ATS away in conference play this season, the points become the play tonight. To cap it off, playing against any sub .800 NBA defending champ at home versus a .500+ non-division opponent seeking same-season double revenge is 17-1 ATS since 2005.

Rating: 4 Unit MVC Play of the Day

The incentive arrow points to the Panthers, who were laid out, 85-58, in the Windy City two weeks ago – the worst loss in this series since at least 1990. It’s also Senior Night in Cedar Falls, where a veteran 5-returning starter UNI squad brings an 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS mark in Last Home Games into this contest, including 6-1 ATS when not favored by six or more points. Meanwhile, the Ramblers have not fared well when facing foes playing with same season revenge from a loss of 20-plus points, going just 2-7 ATS as visitors. Finally, Loyola is 4-17-1 ATS against avenging opponents the past two seasons, including 0-8-1 ATS when the Ramblers are coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Play of the Day

The Blazers and Warriors take the court at the Moda Center in Portland following the All-Star break with each team looking to regain its stride. While the visitors from Dub City have dusted the Blazers by 10 and 15 points in their two get-togethers this season, they entered the break on a 0-6-1 ATS skid and are just 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS this season against .333 or greater foes seeking same-season double digit revenge. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 6-0-1 ATS in this series when playing with same-season revenge of 10 or more points. It all fits snugger than a bug in a rug. Finally playing on any .400 or greater NBA team in its first game after the All-Star break with 7 or more days of rest versus a .719 or greater foe is 11-1 ATS since 2010.

Rating: 5 Unit NBA Game of the Week

Pistons have wallowed in division play, going 5-16 SU and 6-15 ATS the past four seasons – including 0-4 SUATS from Game 59 out. More important, Detroit stands 9-29 SU and 12-25 ATS in this series since 1990 in games in which the Cavs arrive rested with a greater than .575 win percentage. Head coach Bernie Bickerstaff has lit a fi re under the Cavaliers, as they are the
most improved team in the league season-to-date. They are also 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS as a favorite with two-plus days of rest in this series, including 9-1 SUATS in game in which Hitsville sports a sub .480 win percentage. Finally the Cavs are 4-0 SUATS under Bickerstaff when playing with 3-plus days of rest, by an average winning margin of 20 PPG.

Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day

Bears will be seeking atonement from an embarrassing 61- 54 home loss to the Cowboys as -14-point chalk three weeks ago. In addition, they also fell as the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 tourney in the semifinal round to OSU as well. If that doesn’t blacken up these Bears, then nothing does. For openers, they take the court knowing they are 3-0 ATS on this floor when seeking revenge, as well as 7-4 ATS away with same season loss revenge in Big 12 contests. On the flip side, OSU checks in just 7-11 ATS at home against foes arriving with a revenge chip under head coach Mike Boynton, including 0-4 SUATS versus greater than .800 foes. Finally, consider that defending National Champions are 20-6-1 ATS with a sub .840 win percentage when seeking same-season loss revenge during the regular season, including 5-0 SUATS since 2018.

Rating; 4 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day

Consider that the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. While the Cowboys are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall, 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.

Rating 5 UnitBig-12 Game of the Week

Texas stands 11-6-1 ATS when playing with the revenge chip in this series, including 5-0 ATS from a same-season loss of 8-plus points. Hook ‘Em is also 17-5-1 ATS in this series when they sport the inferior overall record, including 13-1 ATS in games in which TTRR checks in with a sub. 820 win percentage. With Raiders’ rookie mentor Mark Adams still glowing following Wednesday’s 10-point take down of Baylor, consider that away teams who defeat the defending National Champion at home and beat the spread by 8-plus points are 1-10 ATS since 2000 when facing a .720 or greater conference foe coming off a win

Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day

Izzo stands 30-9 SU and 25-13-1 ATS at home with same-season Big Ten loss revenge with the Spartans, including 26-4 SU and 22-7-1 ATS versus sub .800 opposition. With the Illini limping in off a 70-59 loss as 4-point chalk at Rutgers on Wednesday, and MSU’s always tough-as-nails defense (top 30-ranked Opponent Shooting Percentage) expect Brad Underwood’s crew to slip to 0-5 ATS in games when coming off a SU favorite loss this season. Finally consider that Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo is 33-11-1 ATS with 3 or more days of rest with revenge from Game 20 out, including 26-4-1 ATS versus sub .740 opponents

Rating: 5 Unit NBA Game of the Week

Utah fell a month ago on this floor when they dropped a 101-95 decision to the Lakers as 5.5-point road chalk. With it, they bring an 8-2 ATS record into this contest as a series guest when looking to avenge a same-season beating in games in which Utah owns a sub .636 win percentage. In addition, they take the floor with a 5-1 SUATS mark in Los Angeles in games in which the Lakers sport a losing record. Meanwhile, LeBron James’ minions arrive on the heels of a revenge affair against Golden State, standing just 13-20 SUATS post-Dub City. Worse, they are staring dead ahead to a get-even revenge affair with their cross-town rival Clippers. The Jazz not only lead the league scoring, they also rank in the Top 10 in scoring defense. On the other side of the coin, the defensively-poor Lakers rank No. 27 in the loop in scoring defense and No. 24 overall in Team Fouls per contest.

Rating: 5 Unit CBB Game of the Week

The Red Raiders check in with a spotty 10-27-2 ATS mark in conference games before taking on Texas, including 3-14-2 ATS at home. Unfortunately for TTRR, they poked the Bear and must now pay the price, so if the Bears are taking, we are snapping the rubber band. Especially with extra incentive that Baylor is 15-4-1 ATS with revenge in this series, including 10-1-1 ATS with three or more days of rest, as well as 4-0 ATS when the Bears own the better record

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Play of the Day

This evening they return home after hosting Portland last night knowing they are 6-12 SUATS without rest in this series. On the flip side, Indiana enters with triple revenge from this season, sporting a 4-1 SUATS mark in this series when toting those exact credentials. They are also 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS against the league with same-season triple revenge, including 6-2 SU and 8-0
ATS in division duels. Finally, playing on any NBA double-digit division road dog seeking same-season triple revenge versus the defending league champion is 9-1-1 ATS since 1997.

Rating: 5 Unit NBA Game of the Week

The Bucks’ 4-game west coast swing concludes here tonight after visits to the Trail Blazers, Clippers, and the Lakers. With it, Milwaukee enters knowing they are just 11-19 ATS away against winning foes this season. The Suns continue to shine at home against winning non-conference opponents, going 5-1 SUATS of late. They are also the No. 2 team in the loop in Average Scoring Margin Per Game, as well as the No. 3 team in Defensive Field Goal Percentage. Finally consider that Milwaukee is 3-22 SU and 9-16 ATS as a visitor at Phoenix, including 0-6 SUATS when the Bucks own a .600 or greater record

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Play of the Day

Portland stands 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS this season without rest, including 3-0 ATS when looking to avenge a previous loss. They are also 17-7 ATS as home dogs in this series. On the other side of the court, the cast and crew from LA sport a 1-3 SUATS mark away from home this season against unrested foes. Additionally LA stands 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in non-division contests after meeting Milwaukee. Finally,  Portland is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home when seeking same-season double revenge from a loss of 5 or more points in the last meeting.

Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day

Kansas was  looking forward to avenging a pair of regular season losses that Texas had laid on them prior to their withdrawal from the conference tourney last year. Ironically, only one team has ever defeated a Bill Self coached squad twice in the same season. That was UNLV, who bested Self’s Tulsa team in 2000. Self ran the Rebels off the floor the following season in the rematch, 89-62. For what it’s worth, Self stands 52-7 SU and 40-18-1 ATS in conference paybacks, including 24-6-1 ATS in games in which his troops own a sub .790 win percentage. With Texas a money burning 9-13 ATS this season and the fact that Kansas is 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS when out for revenge in this series, including 7-0 SUATS with a win percentage of greater than .750, you have the winner.

Rating: 5 Unit CBB Game of the Week

Colorado takes the floor knowing they are 4-1 SUATS when playing with a revenge chip in this series, including 4-0 SUATS when the Beavers arrive with a .625 or less win percentage. In addition, the Buffaloes are 32-4 ATS in straight up wins when seeking revenge in Pac-12 games,  but they are also 7-0 ATS when seeking revenge from a loss in the Pac-12 tournament when coming off a conference clash. On the other side of the court, following its 84-59 crush-job at Utah on Thursday, the visiting Beavers are 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in games against opponents coming off a loss this season. Finally consider that the Buffaloes are 20-3 ATS at home when coming off consecutive losses and a previous home loss when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 18-1 ATS versus sub .700 opponents.

Rating: 4 Units

CBB Play of the Day

UCSB HC, Joe Pasternack, is just 6-15 ATS at home with the gauchos against avenging conference foes, including 2-12 ATS against those sporting a losing record. That being the case, consider that UC Irvine is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in this series when playing with 4 or more days of rest, including 5-0 SUATS when Santa Barbara sports a .400 or greater win percentage.

Rating: 4 Unit NBA Game of the Week

For openers,  Minnesota is 6-11 SU and 4-13 ATS at home in games after playing the Jaz. They also upset the Nuggets, 124-107, in their most recent meeting in Denver in mid-December. In the meantime, Denver has Utah waiting on deck knowing the Nuggets are 23-9 ATS in games before facing off with Utah, including 12-2 ATS as a dog. Between the Denver, Minnesota, and Utah symmetries, we close it out knowing also that Minnesota is 6-22 SU and 4-23-1 ATS at home versus Denver.

Rating: 5 Unit NBA Game of the Week

While Utah rides comfortably atop the Northwest Division, Minnesota is currently 5.5 games back. And rest assured they will have the Jazz’s full attention after having been taken back behind the woodshed three times this season. Consider that Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in this series since 1990 when seeking same-season triple revenge, including 6-0 ATS when the Jazz sport a win percentage of greater than .525. In addition, Utah has hit a skid of late, going just 2-9 SUATS. To cap it all off, playing on  the Minnesota Timberwolves in division games before Game 66 when they are seeking same-season triple revenge vs. a .575 or greater foe is a whopping 10-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 5 Unit CBB Game of the Week

The 5-returning starter Wolf Pack have been a major disappointment this season. Picked by many to contend for honors in the Mountain West Conference, the Wolves are mid-pack and just barely over .500 on the season. However, there is nothing like a matter of double revenge from last season to get their juices flowing, especially returning home off a double-digit loss at Colorado State on Tuesday. Nevada takes the floor tonight knowing they are 4-0 SUATS at home in this series of late. The Aggies enter off a satisfying LTKO (League Tourney Knock Out) revenge win over San Diego State on Thursday knowing they are 0-5 SUATS away in games after Aztec confrontations. Better yet, Nevada is 20-1 ATS in its last 21 SU Conference wins when seeking revenge.  In addition,  Nevada is 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS at home versus sub .700 conference opponents with double revenge-exact from the previous season, including 5-0 SUATS against foes coming off a win.

Rating: 5 Unit NBA Play of the Day

The Grizzlies have been the point spread darlings of the league this season, going 30-17 ATS. In addition, they will be out to avenge a 27-point trouncing at home against the Mavericks nine days ago, all of which figures to work in their favor tonight, as they stand 4-0 ATS in this series with same-season loss revenge from a defeat of more than 25 points. The fact of the matter is their success this season lies in their body of work: No. 1 in Steals Per
Game (Dallas 25th), No. 2 Team Rebounds Per Game (Dallas 18th), and No. 5 Points Per Game (Dallas 26th). They catch the modest Mavs in a weak spot tonight, as Dallas arrives off a revenger here with Phoenix knowing they are just 25-40 ATS at home after coming down with sunstroke. Also consider that Memphis is 15-6 ATS away this season, including 4-0 SUATS with same season loss revenge.

Rating: 5 Unit AFC Divisional Game of the Week

NFL teams who have managed to take down a Bill Belichick coached team by 20 or more points are just 6-12 SUATS in follow-up contests, including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS versus greater than .666 foes. With the win the Bills are now 3-0 at home and 0-3 away in the playoffs under Sean McDermott. The Chiefs bumped Buffalo out of the playoffs in the AFC title game last year, although the Bills did circle back and rout the Chiefs 38-20 at Arrowhead in October. The Bills enter this contest with +32 net TDs this season – the best in the league. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes was money for Chiefs’ backers in last week’s 42-21 win over Pittsburgh, going 30-of-39 for 404 yards, five touchdowns and the interception. Meanwhile, M’homey is 7-2 in the postseason, with both losses coming at the hands of Tom Brady. Consider that teams coming off a Wild Card win of 25-plus points are 3-7 SUATS since 1990, including 0-5 SUATS versus sub .800 foes.  In addition, playing against  any NFL away team in the Divisional Round of the playoffs coming off a win of 25-plus points if they’re facing a .750 or fewer opponent is a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit CBB Play of the Day

It’s been a down season for the 8-7 Wolves, who were projected as the No. 6 team in the nation in the preseason polls this year. However, there is nothing like a submissive opponent to cure those ills and with it the Hoosiers answer the bell. Aside from bringing a 0-8 SUATS mark in the last eight games in this series into today’s contest, IU enters off a 9-time revenge win over in-state rival Purdue on Thursday knowing they are just 6-11 ATS in post Boilermaker bouts. Given UM’s resounding 83-64 win over Maryland on
Tuesday, its first victory in over a month, look for Juwan Howard’s hoopsters to be hungry for more. Keep Michigan on your radar moving forward. Finally, consider that Michigan is 20-11 ATS under Juwan Howard versus foes they defeated in a most recent meeting, including 9-3 ATS when the Wolves sport a .640 or fewer win percentage.

Rating: 5 Unit PAC-12 Game of the Week

USC enters this fray sporting a 6-12 SU and 14-14 ATS mark in this series, including 1-6 SUATS on this floor. And if that is not enough, there is always the fact that Utah is 15-3 ATS at home when coming off a previous home loss, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 SUATS the last eight, as well as 7-0 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points

Rating: 5 Unit SEC Game of the Week

Consider that the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall., and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. While the Volunteers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Saturday games. In addition, the underdog is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

Rating: 4 Unit CBB Play of the Day

Consider that the Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. While the Sooners are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

Rating: 4 Unit NCAAB Play of the Day

Wisconsin is hoping recent history against Michigan State is on its side when the eighth-ranked Badgers host the No. 14 Spartans tonight in Madison, Wis. Wisconsin has won the last two matchups with Michigan State, including a 64-63 victory in the last meeting at home at the Kohl Center. Wisconsin (15-2, 6-1 Big Ten) extended its winning streak to seven with an 82-76 victory at Northwestern on Tuesday to move into a first-place tie with Illinois in the conference. The Spartans (14-3, 5-1) were upset at home by Northwestern 64-62 in their last outing on Saturday, snapping a nine-game winning streak. Consider that the Badgers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Rating: 5 Unit Wild Card Game of the Week

Rest assured, the Bills have been chewing nails since losing to Kansas City in the AFC title game last season. Not only have they played their way back to the postseason this year, they’ll take the field today knowing that playoff home teams who fell in their conference title game the previous season are 44-8 SU and 34-16-2 ATS overall, including 26-3 SU and 21-6-2 ATS when coming off a win of 6-plus points. Yes, we realize that six of their victories this season have come against teams that were using a backup quarterback, but after its 7-0 SUATS winning skein, New England enters just 1-3 SUATS in its last four contests while nearly mirroring its dismal 1-4 start to begin the season. The Pats where out-yarded -406 net yards against five fellow bowl teams this season, while the Bills outs tatted six playoff teams to the tune of +325 net yards. In fact, consider that NFL playoff home favorites who were in the playoffs the previous season are 15-3 SU and 14-5 ATS since 1996 when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 6-0 ATS when coming off a loss of more than 8 points.

Rating: 4 UnitSNF Game of the Week

The Chargers’ Achilles heel has been its scoring defense in late stages of the game, as the 10.3 PPG they surrender in the 4Q of games is the worst in the league. However, Vegas is the worst team in the league in Penalty Yards Per Game which means nothing surprises us in this prime time playoff eliminator. In a game of back-and-forth possibilities, we settle on this beauty  that winning division home dogs of 3 or fewer points seeking revenge in their final game of the season are 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS since 1980. In addition, playing on any division home dog with a winning record coming off a SU non-division NFL road win as a dog of 4 or more points if they are facing an opponent that has won 21 or fewer of its last 32 overall games is a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1980.  That should put the Raiders in the playoffs.

Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day

Niners need either a win or a loss by the Saints, and they are in the playoffs as a wild card. Frisco upended Los Angeles, 31-10, as a 3.5-point home dog back in November, and has now won and covered each of the past three meetings in this series. After stumbling out of the gate 3-5 during the first half of the season, Kyle Shanahan’s troops have found their groove going 6-2 SUATS and 7-1 ITS (In The Stats) in their previous eight games. With the horned heads just 3-9 ATS at home when coming off consecutive road contests, and the 49ers sporting a 28-12 SU and 28-10-2 ATS record as a visitor in this series, the points become the play today. To cap it off, consider that the Rams are 1-7 SUATS at home in division games when coming off consecutive away wins, including 0-6 SUATS the last six.

Rating: 6 Unit AFC Game of the Month

Cincinnati comes into this one celebrating their first playoff berth, division title, and season of double-digit wins since 2015. QB Joe Burrow passed for 446 yards and four TDs, giving him 971 yards and eight TDs, and zero interceptions over the past two weeks. And Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase has become the NFL ‘s most dangerous connection. With the Browns averaging a mere 4.4 PPG during the 4Q this season – only Atlanta was worse – look for the Bengals to avenge a 41-16 home loss suffered against Cleveland two months ago. Finally, consider that Cincinnati is 10-0 SU and 8-2 in this series when the Browns are coming off consecutive SUATS losses, including 6-0 SUATS when Cleveland owns a losing record.

Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day

The Cowboys became the 17th different NFC East division champion in the past 17 seasons when they clinched the crown in last week’s 56-14 whipping of Washington. With it, QB Dak Prescott fi nally broke out of his slump, albeit against a poor pass defense missing lots of personnel. Prescott was nearly perfect in this game going 28-of-39 for 330 yards and four touchdowns. He’ll need a repeat performance today, though, especially with ‘Zona 6-1 SUATS away this season. Consider that Dallas is 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS at home the last 11 years without rest versus .666 or greater conference opponents, including 0-12 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of fewer than 51 points

Rating: 5 Unit AFC Game of the Week

Miami’s 21-3 win over New Orleans Monday Night was more lopsided than the final score indicated, as the Dolphins outgained the Saints, 259-164, and averaged 1.2 more yards per play. With it, they currently hold down the seventh seed in the AFC playoff picture after Monday night’s win, with two more games left to prove they’re deserving of a postseason berth. With last week’s home underdog win over San Francisco, Tennessee enters today’s fray as the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC playoff picture. After tossing for only 40 yards in the first half against San Francisco last week, Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill came alive after the break finishing up 22-of-29 for 209 yards and a touchdown. Still, they are just 1-6 ATS as non-division home chalk of 5 or fewer points, while Miami is 17-4 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or fewer points. Consider that NFL dogs riding a 7-game-exact win streak are 13-3 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS when coming off a non-division victory.

Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Day

The Golden Domers are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS versus .846-or-greater Big 12 opponents, plus 7-13 SU and 6-14 ATS versus bowl opponents that allow fewer than 18.5 PPG. And that is key here as the Cowboys have one of the stingiest defensive units in the nation (ranked 3rd in the country), and allowed just 16.8 points per game this season, which was 7th in scoring defense. DC Jim Knowles is another major coach who has flown the coop before a bowl game, heading for the same position at Ohio State, but the defensive game plan is etched in stone in Stillwater. Also, remember, the Cowboys were one inch away from a possible appearance in this season College Football Playoff after going 5-0 SUATS away from home this season. Consider that College Bowl favorites entering 3-0 SUATS in their last three games, the last an ATS win of 6-plus points, are 4-29 ATS against a foe who scored 21 or fewer points in its final game of the season.  Know also that playing against any College Bowl favorite who is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last 3 games if they are off a double-digit ATS win and are facing a foe coming off a loss who allows fewer than 25 PPG is a perfect 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 10 Unit

NHL Total of the Month

The Golden Knights to build off of their impressive 6-3 win in Los Angeles two nights ago. Of course, Vegas is also missing a number of key cogs but has plenty of depth to persevere. The Knights are expected to have defensive anchor Alex Pietrangelo back for this one. Note that the Knights are 15-3 when revenging a loss against an opponent as a road favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. That's the situation here after Anaheim prevailed by a 6-5 score at home against Vegas back on December 1st

Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Week

The East Lansing Knothole Gang is a crackling 7-1 ATS in its last eight bowls, 3-0 ATS versus the ACC in the last three, and the B1G Boys have been bullies against the ACC in bowl season, going 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Big-moneyed Head Coach Mel Tucker engineered the biggest one-season turnaround in the long history of Spartans’ football and despite all the attention Walker III earned, don’t sleep on talented QB Payton Thorne, especially if receiver Jalen Nailor is able to bounce back from injury and join fellow wideout Jayden Reed. Consider as well that .700 or greater College Bowl ‘Mission Teams’ – teams who missed a bowl game last season after having been a bowler each of the previous three seasons – are 16-3-1 ATS versus foes coming off a loss.

Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Month

Oregon got as high as No. 3 in the CFB Playoff rankings before getting spanked twice in two weeks by Utah, which destroyed any hopes for a playoff appearance or a New Year’s Six Bowl. It’s bad enough that the down-and-out  Ducks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Bowls, but the Pac-12 is 0-5 ATS versus the Big 12 of late in post-season matchups, and Bowl dogs of 15 or fewer points off a conference loss of 28 or more are 3-9 ATS… that’s a lot of fugly numbers at work here against the quackers in this matchup. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in bowl games in which the Sooners sport the better record. In fact, OU is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS against Pac-12 foes in games in which the Sooners own the better record. With both head coaches bolting for greener pastures – Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley is off to USC, while Oregon’s Mario Cristobal landed at Miami Florida – the feeling here is the Sooners have much more unfinished business at hand in this contest. The Clincher: Pac-12 bowlers coming off a SUATS loss are 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS since 2015.

Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Bowl Play of the Day

Despite being the primary focus of every defense, Brad Roberts is the Falcons workhorse, averaging over 106 YPG with his longest run of the season being only 33 yards. People tend to forget the Falcons in the bowl season too, but AFA is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 bowls, 11-2 ATS off back-to-back SU victories, 4-1 ATS when an opponent limps in off a double-digit loss (like UL is), and 4-1 ATS as dogs of 6 or fewer points. Also consider that playing on any Military bowl team with a greater than .666 win percentage versus an opponent not coming off a double-digit win is 18-2 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day

The Dolphins have won yardage in each of their last five games, while surrendering just 272 YPG throughout the course of its current six-game win skein. On the flip side, the Saints did the impossible when they blanked Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs in Tampa Bay last week. And for that they figure to pay a price today. For openers, New Orleans is 1-9-1 ATS home versus AFC opponents. In the 9-0 victory last week, only one Saint registered more than 17 receiving yards. That was Marquez Callaway, who had a big game. He caught six of his nine targets for 112 yards. Look for New Orleans and its 1-9-1 ATS record as an AFC host to take a hit tonight. The Clincher: Teams who shut out the defending Super Bowl champions in a win of 7 or more points are 0-3 SUATS since 1980 their next game.

Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day

After not having much success in tight games over the first part of the season, the New Orleans Pelicans have turned their fortunes around during their current four-game winning streak. Over the Pelicans' first 29 games, they were just 1-9 in "clutch" games -- games where the score is within five points in the final five minutes. But starting with New Orleans' 113-110 win in Oklahoma City on Dec. 15, a game decided by Devonte' Graham's 61-foot shot at the buzzer, the Pelicans are 3-0 in such games. Today, New Orleans tries to keep its momentum going with a return trip to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are coming off a 113-101 loss Thursday in Phoenix. Consider that OKC is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Indianapolis reversed a 0-3 start into the No. 5 seed in the current AFC playoff chase thanks to 4-1 SUATS skein after taking on the latest ‘Hard Knocks II’ role Thanksgiving Week, while snapping New England’s season best 7-game win streak last week. And they did it in spite of QB Carson Wentz’s immense struggles as potential league MVP RB Jonathan Taylor dashed for 170 yards on 29 attempts, including a 67-yard scamper for a score. Given head coach Frank Reich’s 10-4 SU mark from Game Thirteen out during the regular season, and Indy’s 8-3 SUATS all time mark against NFC West foes coming off consecutive losses, the points become the play here today. Also consider that Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 3-8 SUATS at home in his NFL career versus winning foes, including 0-8 SUATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season. To cap it all off, consider that playing against any regular season NFL home pick or favorite on Saturday coming off a loss if they lost to the spread by 17 or more points in the loss is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 UnitNFL Upset of the Day

The suddenly listless Ravens have not scored an offensive touchdown in the first quarter in each of their last 7 games, but if you saw the second half of the Ravens-Browns contest, you’ll know why we think they’ve still got some fight left. That was when backup QB Tyler Huntley sparked Baltimore to a near-win at Cleveland, engineering a 19-point second half comeback that fell two-points short in the Ravens’ 24-22 loss at the Dawg Pound. Consider as well that playing on any NFL home dog of more than 3 points during the second-half of the season with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and they are facing an opponent with at least one loss on the season who is coming off a win of 14 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 UnitNFL Saturday Game of the Month

Bill Belichick is 6-2 SUATS riding a 7-game winning streak, including 4-0 SUATS versus sub .700 foes. He’s also 20-5 on Saturdays, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS during the regular season, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus the Colts with New England, including 5-0 ATS in games in which Indy owns a sub .777 win percentage. Toss in his sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest and his squad suddenly poses a major problem for the born-again Colts. Meanwhile, Indy has forgotten how win in this series, going just 13-34 SU and 14-32-1 ATS overall since 1987, including 2-17 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in games in which the Pats own the better record. We don’t see anything here being broke, and we’re not about to fix it. Finally, consider that New England head coach Bill Belichick is a sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest, including 11-0 SUATS when facing sub .666 opponents.

Rating: 4 Unit Prime Time Game of the Week

QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in this series in games in which the Bolts sport a .500 or greater record, while Andy Reid brings a 2-4 SUATS career record on Thursdays into this contest when facing division foes. On the flip side, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursdays from Game Eleven out.

Rating: 4 Unit - Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Kyle Shanahan has developed a broad home-road dichotomy, where he is 22-16 ATS away as opposed to 16-22-1 ATS at home with San Francisco (more on that below). Included in those numbers is a glitzy 7-2 ATS record on the AFC road, including 6-0 ATS the last six contests. Coupled with Cincy’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark under Zac Taylor in games against the NFC West, it paints an imposing picture for the suddenly fractured Bengals. Consider that Shanahan is 11-2 ATS away in non-division games against foes coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Tampa sits atop the NFC South with a four-game lead over all three of their other division rivals. In addition, Buffalo enters on an 8-1-1 ATS win skein on the non-conference road as well as 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in games after coming off a SU favorite Monday Night loss. Yes, Tommy Seven Rings is 31-3 all-tie against Buffalo, but in each of those wins he had The Hoodie whispering in his ear. FYI: He is only 2-2 ATS against Buffalo when the Bills sport a .636 or greater win percentage. Moving to the here and now, though, you may be shocked to learn that Brady is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS during the regular season with the Bucs versus .636 or greater opponents. To cap it off, consider that Tom Brady is 0-5 SUATS as a favorite during the regular season versus .636 or greater foes with Tampa Bay.

Rating: 10 Unit 10* AFC Game of the Year

Baltimore’s loss to Pittsburgh dropped their chances at landing a spot in the postseason to 85%. It all blows to smithereens, though, with a Cleveland win today. However, I we like the Browns’ chances, as teams in Game Thirteen with a .500 record, who were in the playoffs last season, are 18-3 SUATS when seeking revenge. That’s a big number. And so is Baker Mayfield’s 15-7 SU and 14-8 ATS record with the Browns against foes coming off a loss, including 9-1 ATS when not favored by 3 or more points. To cap it off, consider that playing on  6-6 NFL team in Game Thirteen if they were a playoff team last season and are seeking revenge against a .500 or greater opponent that is not coming off a loss of 12 or more points is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1990.

5* Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Setting the table for the Raiders, is the fact that home teams coming off a Turkey Day win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since 1990 when hosting sub .666 foes off win. With the sinners in a three-way tie for second-place in the AFC West, one game behind Kansas City, and currently 5-1 ATS at home coming off a pair of previous home losses – they lost to Cincinnati and Kansas City at Allegiant Stadium last month – it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: NFL teams coming off a SU underdog win on Thursday are 5-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS since 1990 versus a foe coming off a Monday Night game.

Rating: 4 Unit 4* AFC Play of the Day

While on paper it appears the Chargers are wobbling at 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS since Bye week, they are actually 4-1 ITS (In The Stats) in those games. They are also 6-1-1 ATS away when coming off an away game. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow appears to be leading the Bengals’ resurgence, yet he is just 2-6 ATS in games when coming off a win, including 0-4 SUATS against no-division foes. And then there is Cinci’s 2-11 SUATS ledger when coming off a pair of wins-exact. Speaking of which, we sew up the deal with The clincher: Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS since 1980 when coming off consecutive wins after facing Pittsburgh, including 0-5 SUATS in non-division games.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* NFL Upset of the Week

Chicago has out yarded each of its last three opponents, while holding all three foes to less than 300 yards. And then there is this from the WOM (Well Oiled Machine): Game Twelve NFL home teams who were in the playoffs the previous season are 6-1 SUATS since 1990 against opponents coming off a Bye week. And then there is a cold weather team hosting a warm weather team in December. Given Arizona’s 5-13 SU and 6-11-1 ATS all-time mark on the NFC North road. The clincher:  Playing Against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Units 4* Big-10 Bash

The Hawkeyes have held the upper hand in this series with the Wolverines, going 15-8-1 ATS as a dog in this series, including 8-2 ATS with an .800 or greater win percentage, and 6-0 ATS when the Maize-and-Blue are coming off back-to-back wins.  In addition, teams entering their conference championship game, coming off a win of 14 or more points, are just 19-29 ATS all-time, including 1-9 ATS against a foe coming off a loss. Next, the favorite in Big Ten title games is 2-8 ATS (1-7 ATS versus .800 or greater foes). Finally, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz brings a 5-0 ATS record as a dog of more than 7 points with a win percentage of .750 or more into the fray. The clincher:  Playing Against any favorite of 6 or more points with a better record than its opponent in its conference championship game – if coming off an ATS win of 15 or more points and facing an .800 or fewer opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1996.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* AAC Championship Cash

Playing high-profile opponents has not been a problem for Cincinnati, either, considering they own a spotless 5-0 ATS record in the last five contests versus .900 or greater opponents. Series history also favors UC, as Houston stands 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS versus the Bearcats, including 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS here. And despite this year’s success, Cougars coach Holgorsen is only 9-18 SU and 11-16 ATS versus undefeated opposition in his career. The clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* Sun Belt Championship Smash

Much like the Baylor-Oklahoma State contest, these two own very similar numbers in the most important offensive and defensive team stats, but there is one area where the Cajuns own an overwhelming edge: Appalachian State is dead even when it comes to turnover margin in 2021, while Louisiana checks in at +11. In addition to riding an 11-game win streak since an opening season loss at Texas, Louisiana beat ASU by 28 points in mid-October when they held the Mountaineers to a season-low 13 points and 211 yards. The Clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992.

NFL Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Head coach Sean McVay enters this game knowing he is 4-1 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a loss. And speaking of QB dings, despite battling a toe injury, and losing left tackle Elgton Jenkins to injury, Rodgers went 23-of-33 for 385 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s loss at Minnesota, snapping the league’s longest SUATS win skein at 9 this season. The big concern for Rams’ backers is Rodgers’ 41-21-1 ATS career record in games when the Packers are coming off a loss. However, it waters down to 13-11 ATS when he is at home in games with both teams coming off a loss. Cap it off my knowing that playing on any NFL team coming off consecutive SU favorite losses, the last an ATS loss by 12 or more points, if they were a playoff team last year and they are facing a .700 or better opponent is 16-0 ATS since 2006

Rating: 4 UnitNFL Play of the Day

A red-faced Ryan Tannehill was intercepted 4 times (3 times in the 4Q) in last week’s humiliating loss to Houston as the Titans were flagged for looking past the Texans in favor of today’s contest. Our QB League database notes that Tannehill is 20-12 SU and 22-10 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win, including 19-7 ATS as a dog. Note that NFL road dogs coming off a SU loss as a double-digit favorite are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS when taking on a foe coming off a win of 14 or more points. The clincher: Tennessee is 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win under head coach Mike Vrabel, including 5-0 SUATS this season.

Rating: 5 UnitDivisional Game of the Week

The Steelers are 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS the last 24 games in this series. They are also 9-2 SUATS away in games in which Cincinnati sports the better record, including 5-0 SUATS when the Black and Gold arrives off a SUATS loss. And making things juicier, when Pittsburgh is coming off a loss and facing Cincinnati coming off a win, the Steelers stand 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the Queen City, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a dog. Also consider that : Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 27-5-1 SU and 22-11 ATS away in Ohio at Cincinnati and Cleveland, where he played his college ball at Miami Oh, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in games in which Pittsburgh owns the lesser record. To finish it off Cincy is 3-7 ATS as a division home favorite while Pitt is 7-1 ATS as a division road dog.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day

There is not a whole lot on the line in this game for the Bruins – they have qualified for a bowl game (but cannot reach the Pac-12 title game), and they are still basking in the glow of their 62-33 destruction of arch-rival USC. Also, consider that they are 0-6-1 ATS after taking on the Trojans, 0-5-1 ATS in Game Twelve, and 1-7 ATS as home chalk of less than 10 points. Therefore, this becomes the ideal spot for the Bears, who still need a pair of wins (although next week doesn’t matter unless they score a victory here) to earn their bowl stripes. On top of that, they have owned this series spread-wise, going 12-4-1 ATS as a dog, and overall are 6-0 ATS as road dogs of 10 or fewer points. In addition, the Bears are 21-8 ATS as an underdog with head coach Justin Wilcox, including 7-0 ATS when the Bears own a losing record.

Rating: 5 Unit  Big-12 Game of the Week

Okies a step behind normally overpowering "O", with 3 take aways greasing skids for escape vs Iowa St (25-15 first down & 362-306 yard deficits). Oklahoma St "D" has been immovable, ranking 3rd, 4th, & 2nd in total, rushing, scoring. A 165-23 pt edge L4 tilts. Repaying 6 straight losses. Consider as well that playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980

Rating 5 UnitsBig-10 Game of the Week

Our numbers for this game clearly put the Spartans at a disadvantage, including a 0-5 ATS mark after playing Ohio State, and a 0-4 home record against the number when they have conference revenge. On the flip side, regardless of the outcome of this game, neither team can improve or regress in the standings of the Big Ten East Division when the 7-4 / 4-4 Lions invade East Lansing to take on the 9-2 / 6-2 Spartans. With that being the case, you know it’s a much more important result for PSU as far as bowl positioning is concerned. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in LRGs, as well as 4-1 ATS away versus conference revenge. PSU’s 26thranked defense (335 YPG) is also leagues better than MSU’s 119th rated stop-unit (463 YPG)... and therein lies your edge. Consider as well that Penn State head coach James Franklin is 30-4 SU and 27-7 ATS in games when coming off a win versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 14-2 SU and 15-1 ATS versus greater-than .400 foes.

Rating: 5 Unit  Upset of the Week

Wake has limped to the barn at the end of the season many times, 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS, and a frightening 0-5 SUATS versus teams coming off a SUATS loss. The Demon Deacons are also 3-12 ATS in the back half of back-to-back conference roadies. Meanwhile the Boston Brawlers are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of 4 or more, 15-3 ATS versus conference opponents they defeated in a most recent meeting, as well as 8-3 ATS vs .800 or greater vs. conference opponents. They have thrived since QB Phil Jurevic returned. Consider that playing on  any .500 or greater college football conference home dog coming off one loss-exact if they lost SU as a favorite from Game Seven out if they allow 24.5 or fewer PPG and they average more than 120 rushing yards per game if they are facing an .800 or greater opponent that allows 17.5 or more PPG who won fewer than 12 games last season is 15-0 ATS since 1980. Wake Forest needs a M-U-S-T W-I-N, but we see U-P-S-E-T instead.

5 Unit NFL Total of the Month

KC can let it all hang it this week with a Bye upcoming. And ‘Bye the way’... we’ve mentioned all season long about the hot over pattern for these teams. In the long and short term. All non-div favs before their Bye Week (KC), with OU line 41 > pts is 91-51-3 O/U since 2007. All favs before their Bye Week with OU line of 45 > pts (CHIEFS) is 8-0 O/U this year. It looks like the Sharps and Squares alike will both be on the over. #1 vs #4 offense + Last team with ball wins = Arrowhead SHOOTOUT.... 37 to 34!

5* NFL Game of the Week

4* NFC Division Game of the Day

Kirk Cousins had a fine day in leading the Vikings past the Chargers last Sunday, when he completed 25-of-37 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns, as the Vikes moved up to the No. 8 seed position in this year’s NFL playoff picture, as they now trail the Pack by 3.5 games in the NFC North. With it, we love fading teams with huge leads in divisional matchups, especially against those that are scratching and clawing to earn a playoff berth. Green Bay’s lousy rush defense allows 4.6 Yards Per Rush, which fits like a glove into Minnesota’s 4.4 Yards Per Rush offense. Consider that Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 10-4 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 4-0 ATS in division games. Also playing against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is 21-0 ATS since 1980.

4* Big-12 Play of the Day

Iowa State is a solid 5-1 ATS away with conference revenge, and 4-1 ATS as dogs of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, the deflated Sooners have the look of “bubble burst” written all over them after falling to the Baylor Bears, and we’ll look for the Clones to stick another pin in their balloon today, especially since Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS at home in this series when coming off a SU favorite loss. The Sooners are also 6-10 ATS in games when coming off their first loss of the season, including 2-7 ATS versus foes who allow fewer than 23 PPG. ISU head coach Matt Campbell going against teams coming off an upset loss, is 6-0 ATS as a dog when facing an opponent that was upset as a favorite, as well as 8-2 ATS in games when his team was upset. Also, playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 since 1980.

5* MWC Game of the Week

The Wolf Pack is yet another team that appears to have hit the wall, going 2-2 the past four games following a 5-1 start to the season. Nevada is also 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS as a dog or as a favorite of fewer than 4 points versus military teams. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun checks in with a 10-4 ATS mark as a dog against foes with an identical record. Consider as well, that .700 teams playing in Game 11 pretty much have their holiday bowl plans in the making, it is also a major letdown time for these teams dressing up without rest as contented home favorites in these contests. That’s confirmed by the fact that these chalk artists are just 74-82-1 ATS (47%) in this role since 1980. And when these teams are coming off a loss and facing .500 or greater opponents, they fall to 11-26 ATS. Worse, these teams tumble to 1-14 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points.

Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day

The Trail Blazers have been bad on the road this season, posting a 1-6 record there ATS. Now, they’ll have another uphill battle against the Nuggets with Damian Lillard (abdomen) ruled out. While he’s struggled with his efficiency, he’s still averaged 20 points per game. Filling in for him will be the likes of Anfernee Simons and Dennis Smith Jr. The Nuggets could roll here.

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

The Vikings went up 17-3 just prior to halftime, but some more miserable time management allowed the Ravens to score a touchdown in the final seconds before intermission (that’s on you, Mike Zimmer). Still, the much-maligned Cousins had a nice performance, despite the loss, as he went 17-of-28 for 187 yards and two passing TDs and a running touchdown. The bottom line is Minnesota’s season – and possibly Zimmer’s job – is on the line in this contest. With seven of Minny’s eight games this season having been decided by 8 or fewer points, including three overtime sessions, we’ll take a look at the fact that Minnesota is 15-5-1 ATS as a dog in non-division games when coming off a loss under Mike Zimmer, including 9-1-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents.

Rating: 4 unit NFL Mismatch of the Week

New Orleans dropped 22 points on Atlanta in the 4th quarter to take the lead, after trailing by 18, then failed on a 2-point conversion to leave the door open for a field goal win by the Falcons. That’s exactly what happened, so we expect to see a frustrated bunch of Saints in Music City this afternoon, taking it out on a Tennessee team that suddenly looks unbeatable. We know better. The visiting squad in this series has cashed four straight tickets, and the chest-puffing Titans have collapsed after rumbling with the Rams, going 1-6 ATS of late. Also consider that NFL teams coming off four consecutive underdog wins in a row are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS since 1999 as a favorite the following game.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Upset of the Week

The plain truth is that the Steelers’ Monday Night win over Chicago featured one of  the worst-officiated games we have ever seen. The officials seemingly did everything in their power to decide this outcome. The greatest offense by the officials occurred when the Bears seemingly forced a punt in the fourth quarter. Cassius Marsh sacked Roethlisberger on third down, but Marsh was flagged for taunting – even though he only stared at Pittsburgh’s bench. He didn’t even say anything! Yet, the flag was thrown. Chances are the same crew won’t be working this game, which could be bad news for Detroit. No problem, we say, as the Lions are a hearty 8-1 ATS with rest, while Aged Beef Ben and his charges have gone 2-5 ATS after Monday Nighters. The win-starved Lions should want this more, and if Roethlisberger is as tired as he looked on Monday, Detroit has a great opportunity to get off the 0-8 schneid. Also consider that playing on any winless NFL with rest from Game Five out team versus a .500 or greater opponent if the opponent is not coming off a double-digit win is 13-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week

Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin brings is a 13-23 SU and 16-20 ATS career mark into games against opponents with a better win percentage, including 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS versus .875 or greater foes. This will mark the fourth time in the last five years these two teams will meet as ranked teams, so neither side should find the stage too large. However, to Michigan’s credit, the Maize-and-Blue did not buckle beneath the weight of the “bubble burst” following the contested loss against Sparty, methodically grinding out a 29-7 win over Indiana last Saturday, holding the Hoosiers to just 195 total yards. The feeling here is the Wolverines are the better team, and they’ll be out to avenge a season-ending home loss to the Lions last year, one that denied them a .500 campaign. Consider that Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is 40-8
SU and 30-18 ATS when coming off a win and owning the better record, including 10-1 SUATS when facing greater than .600 opponents.

Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day

OU is still unbeaten but not ATS under Riley, instead they’re a middling 9-14 in that category. There is one Jimmy the Greek style checkmark in the Sooners column, a powerful 14-2 ATS mark as road chalk of 8 or fewer. BU is coming off a surprise loss to TCU last week but in their series with OU, Da Bears are 3-0 ATS in the last three and 7-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a loss. In conference revenge games, Baylor is a sturdy 10-2 ATS, plus, BU is 20-5 SUATS in Waco since 2011 against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS as the dog. It’s only the eighth time in this long series both teams have been ranked, all of them since 2011, and OU is 4-3. Consider that since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Nine out facing .700 or greater opponents are just 49-50 SU and 40-57-3 (41.2%). Say hello to Oklahoma. Worse, these same guys have seen their necks snap like they’re swinging from the gallows pole when they’re installed as road favorites of 4 or more points, falling to 14-31 ATS. And when installed as favorites of 4 or more points when coming off a win of 20 or more points, they drop to 16-13 SU and SU and 7-22 ATS in these games, including 6-7 SU and 1-12 ATS against foes that were favored by more than 7 points in their last game

Rating: 4 UnitInter-Conference Play of the Day

For what it’s worth, the most lucrative situation in the NFL this year has been that of road dogs coming off a win of 6 or more points. That’s because these dogs are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS season to date. Sure, the resurgent Cowboys are 3-0 ATS at home this year, but they’re still dragging  a 3-10 ATS log as non-division home favorites of 10 or fewer points. Will Prescott make it back? Or will Rush be asked to save the day again? We’re ambivalent since we’re backing a Broncos team that’s gone 5-0 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or more points. Consider that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-5 ATS away as an NFL starter, including 10-0 ATS versus winning opponents.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

 Although Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has been taking a lot of heat this year, he’s still 41-21 ATS as a dog in his CFB and NFL careers, plus he’s 4-1 ATS as a dog with the Panthers against foes coming off consecutive wins. The Pats are just 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last five games, so with or without Darnold behind center, we can’t wait to capitalize on the fact that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 9-12 SUATS away in games when coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite.

Rating: 6 Unit Upset of the Year

Teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 26-36 SU and 24-37-1 ATS versus division foes the following game, including 19-36 SUATS when not favored by 7 or more points. So now the Saints are 5-2 and hoping to have Winston back and healthy to face Brady and the Bucs when it really counts – in January. In addition,  the visiting team is 4-2 SUATS of late in this series. Toss in the “beat the Super Bowl champ” letdown factor, as teams in division game who upset the defending champs are just 15-25 SU and13-27 ATS since 1990.  The clincher: playing on any .400 or greater NFL division dog playing with triple revenge is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

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Rating: 4 Unit CFB Upset of the Day

UTEP battled back from a 28-10 4Q deficit to fall, 28-25, at Florida Atlantic last week, but at 6-2 this season, the Miners will be bowling for the fi rst time since 2014. Why, you ask? Because they are 7-1 ITS (In The Stats), winning the stats by +100 YPG, and are 4-2 ATS as double-digit pups over the past two seasons. Will another double-digit dog pull an upset this week? A total of 34 FBS games have fallen into that category this season and this has a strong possibility of being another.  Consider as well that playing against any 7-0 or greater college football dog road favorite coming off a week of rest if they are facing a .444 or greater opponent that is not coming off a win of 7 or more points is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week

The 5-3 Boilermakers are 6-2 ITS (In The Stats) this season, winning the stats by an average of 72 net YPG. They beat a Top 10-ranked Iowa team three weeks ago, and are looking to do the same here today. Consider this: the Spartans are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in post-Michigan meetings in which they managed to score 30 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in games in which MSU allows more than 20 PPG. They are also 1-5 SUATS after taking on UM in games in which they coughed up 30-plus points. Can you spell L-E-T-D-O-W-N? Also consider that playing against any college football road favorite who won SU as an underdog against a 5-0 or better opponent in its last game is o 4-20 ATS in this role from Game Seven out. And if this is a conference game, they drop to 3-18 ATS.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Mismatch

On the heels of back-to-back wins, call this a crucial game for the 3-5
/ 2-3 Bears, who have fared quite well as a visitor under head coach
Justin Wilcox, going 7-0 ATS on the highway when coming off a win. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have been dominated by the Bears in this series, at just 7-19 ATS, including 1-9 ATS when the Bears own a losing record. Zona is 0-8 on the season in Jedd Fisch’s first year, and while they hung tough at USC last week, losing 41-34, they have surrendered season-high yardage in two of
their last three games.

Rating: 5 UnitCFB Game of the Week

The 44-37 defeat was the first loss of the season for SMU, and Dykes now runs into another prolific passing attack in Memphis, ranked 18th in the nation (296 YPG). He is also 4-11 ATS as conference road chalk, including 0-4 ATS versus greater than .333 opponents. Meanwhile, Memphis had covered six straight times in this series until getting nipped last season, 30-27, on a field goal at the final gun. That sets up a conference revenge situation for the Tigers, a role in which they are 4-1 ATS at home. In addition, at 4-4 on the season, Ryan Silverfield’s squad is battling to earn a bowl bid for the eighth year in a row. A win today will help, and so does the fact that SMU is 2-9 ATS as a conference road favorite of 17 or fewer points, including 0-4 ATS from Game Nine out. Better yet, playing against any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its initial loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Unit Inter-Conference Total of the Week

This week’s Primetime ‘bookend’ concludes with the Monday Nighter, as the reeling KC Chiefs host the Giants in  Kansas City. It’s an ideal time to go low... with the Chiefs currently in an offensive funk... and taking on one of our favorite ‘Under’ teams in the G-Men (Giants: 1-9 O/U L2Y in non-div games w/ an OU of > 43 pts). At last look, KC was favored by 10 pts with an OU line of 52. Consider that Monday Night double-digit non-division home favorites (Chiefs) have gone 5-23-1 O/U (and 0-7 O/U In L5 years) when the OU line is 54 or less points.

Rating: 3 Unit NFC Total of the Day

We’re certainly aware that Dallas is on a very hot 4-game SU, ATS, and ‘OVER’ streak in a row. the sample size is small, but significant: NFL road teams (DAL) off 4+ SUATS wins and 4+ ‘OVERS’ have gone 6-0-1 O/U since 2004 when the OU line is < 57 points. With amazing offensive point totals of 35, 44, 36, and 41 in their last 4 games, our next query tells us that, Non-Division teams who scored 35 > pts in each of their last 4 games (DALLAS) have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U since 2000 when the OU line is 46 > points.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Brady numbers become dizzying, and at some point we anticipate seeing some degree of regression. It actually happened in his final season with New England when he concluded the season with a career-low 55.7 QBR. But the move to Tampa was akin to finding the Fountain of Youth. Today, though, he takes on a team he knocked out of the NFC playoffs last season, and for that, we expect him to pay the piper. For openers, the Saints are 10-3-1 ATS as home dogs dating back to 2006, including 6-1-1 ATS with head coach Sean Payton. The Bourbon Street gang is also 5-0 SUATS in its last five regular season meetings with the Bucs. And if that’s not enough, consider that Payton is an annuity when it comes to exacting revenge in division games, going 23-12 SU and 24-11 ATS, including 18-2 ATS as a favorite or dog.

Rating: 3 Unit AFC Total of the Week

The fact that Cincy is a huge road favorite plays right into our hands, as NFL road favs of 9 > pts (Cin) have gone 73% under since 2011 (17-47-2 O/U), when the OU line is 41 > pts. Yes, we’re aware that the Bengals just scored 41 points against the Ravens last week. All ROAD teams who scored 40+ pts on the division road the previous week (Cin) are 0-9 O/U L4 years. This will be Cincy’s 3rd straight road game in a row. Consider that all teams in 3rd straight road game after allowing 17 < pts in last two games (Cin) are 0-9 O/U L4 years.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day

The Huskies have taken care of business in this series, going 4-1-1 ATS off a win when Stanford is coming off a loss of 3 or more points. Washington is also 4-1 ATS as a conference dog coming off a SU win and a double-digit ATS loss. Those situations were all set up by an embarrassing first half (65 total yards and zero points) against Arizona, one of the very worst teams in the nation. This, very irritated Washington fans have been calling for back-up QB Sam Huard, but the truth is Dylan Morris got his act together just in time to pull out the win over the Cats. Still, this year’s 3-4 SU record indicates that Jimmy Lake is not the answer in Seattle. With the Huskies looking to avenge a pair of losses to Stanford over the past two seasons as double-digit favorites, we hand it off to the clincher where playing on any 17 or more returning starter college football dog with revenge coming off consecutive ATS losses if they are facing a sub .450 opponent coming off consecutive losses is 19-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 5 Unit SEC Game of the Week

Kentucky is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye week, and after this Starkville trip, they must still face Tennessee and Louisville, so any hopes of a Top 10 finish after that 6-0 start (last accomplished in 1977) are quickly fading away. As for the Starkville Bulldogs, last year’s horror show in Lexington came in the midst of a 4-game losing skid, as the Dogs dropped a 24-2 decision to the Cats, the second-lowest point production by a Mike Leach team in his career. Revenge is tasty, but so is the Halloween candy that the Mad Professor munches on yearly,
so there’s no doubt he should wake up to a plastic pumpkin full of candy corn and gummy bears tomorrow morning if he can pull off this upset. MSU has held four foes to season-low or second-low yards this season, but here’s what to consider that Leach is 4-2 SUATS at home off two previous home losses, including 3-0 SUATS if .500 or greater.

Rating: 4 Unit TNF Game of the Week

The Cardinals, the league’s sole unbeaten team, and currently 7-0 for the first time since 1974 under head coach Don Coryell (why isn’t he in the NFL HOF?). As always, in matters of great importance like this game, we note the Packers are 5-0 ATS versus undefeated NFC West opponents. On the flip side, NFL 7-0 favorites are 0-3 SUATS in Game Eight versus .700 or greater non-division opponents since 1980, while Arizona QB Murray is 1-5 ATS as a non-division home favorite of fewer than 7 points. In conclusion, take the points and relax. Also consider that Green Bay QB Rodgers is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on Thursdays, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win.

Rating: 5 Unit SNF Game of the Month

The fact of the matter is the Colts’ two wins this season have come against the likes of Houston and Miami, 2-10 combined on the year with 10 successive losses in a row. Enter the nasty Niners, coming off a bye week on a three game
losing skid, while sporting the better ‘O’ and ‘D’ in this contest. Frisco is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS of late against AFC South opposition. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo back after being sidelined the last six quarters with a calf injury, look for him to improve on his 20-7 SU and 16-11 ATS career mark against non-division foes here tonight. Finally consider that the 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 5-0 ATS In his NFL career when coming off three losses in a row.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day

McDermott was going for the win, and given how well Tennessee was moving the chains in the second half, he likely would’ve lost in overtime had the Titans won the coin toss. He was taking matters into his own hands. His own hands failed him, but the gutsy call should be admired because many NFL coaches are too conservative. With it all, consider that defending Super Bowl losers are 2-12 ATS as non-division favorites when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-10-2 ATS when facing a foe with revenge.

Rating: 4 Units

Don't look now, but we've got another non-Power Five squad attaching itself to a Top 25 ranking, these Roadrunners, who are just 20 pts from a 20-3 spread run (actually 17-6-1). Dog is 13-4 (5-0 this year) ATS in Bulldog games, but Tech can't run (#99), & Kendall just 10 TDs with 8 INTs

Rating: 4 Unit SEC Play of the Day

Mississippi is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games with conference revenge, and 3-9 versus the number as SEC chalk of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, LSU is 4-1 ATS as road dogs of less than 10 points and has covered the spread 4 of the last five meetings in this series. Consider that  LSU coach Orgeron is 27-11 ATS in conference games against foes with a better record, including 11-0 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in his previous game.

Rating: 4 Units

Rice was expected to wake up this season but hasn’t followed the script, entering today’s game at 2-4 on the season. And don’t get too excited about that pair of victories, since they came against the likes of Texas Southern and Southern Miss (1-6). Meanwhile, the host in this series is 8-1 ATS with the Blazers 5-0 ATS at home. In addition, Bill Clark is 25-5 SU and 18-7 ATS at home as the head man with the Blazers, including 21-1 SU and 15-2-1 ATS versus .600 or less foes. We’re defi nitely not about to step in front of that with these sleepy visitors

Rating: 5 Unit CFB Game of the Week

Army Head Coach Jeff Monken is very comfortable as the point man in this role, going 11-4 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points coming off back-to-back defeats, including 4-0 ATS under Monken. Wake has never shone against military schools, going just 7-18 SU and 8-16 ATS, including 4-6 SU and 2-8
ATS as favorites. They’re also 0-3-1 ATS as road chalk when they are carrying the weight of being undefeated. Consider also that  5-0 or greater road favorites
coming off a week of rest are only 17-30 ATS since 1997, including 1-9 ATS in games in which they allow 20 or more PPG in a season. The Black Knights own the nation’s 2nd-ranked rushing offense while the Demon Deacons allow 171 rushing yards on the ground. The clincher:  Army HC Moken has been a gift in games against undefeated opposition, going 7-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS when his troops have at least one loss on the season.

CFB 5* Upset

That's a lot for the Midshipmen to prep for after its latest loss last Thursday. The defense gave up four touchdowns on Memphis' first five drives in a 35-17 defeat. Navy made the most of its first possession against Memphis, piecing together a methodical, 21-play touchdown drive that lasted 11:50. The Midshipmen scored only 10 points the rest of the day. Consider that playing on any college football military team if they are a dog of 20 or more points coming off a loss of 16 or more points if they allow fewer than 41 points per game and are facing a .666 or greater opponent before Game Eleven of the season is a perfect 20-0 since 1980.

Rating: 5 Units

Note that San Jose is 0-6 the last six times it has come off a road win by a single goal, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 goals in that spot. It also checks in a staggering 0-10 the last 10 times it has played on the road for the third time in four nights, outscored by 2.1 goals on average in that situation. After being held to just eight goals through their first four games, I see this as an ideal breakout spot for the Toronto offense before heading out on a tough three-game road trip.

Rating: 5 Unit MNF Game of the Month

Playing on (Tennessee) any NFL home dog of more than 3 points with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and did not cover its last game by 20 or more points if they are facing an opponent coming off an ATS win of 7 or more points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Upset of the Week

Today, the Pats return home to host Dallas, one of the hottest teams in the league at 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. It’s where The Hoodie is 155-41 SU and 110-78-8 ATS in his career with New England, including 14-4-1 ATS when taking points. The Cowboys enter after taking down an injury-laden Giants squad at home last week, carrying a 9-21-1 ATS mark in non-division duels in games after knocking off New York, including 0-6-1 ATS the last seven games. Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career against teams from the NFC East, including 3-0-1 ATS as a dog. He is also 6-0 SU versus the Dallas Cowboys. The Clincher: Playing against any NFL non-division road favorite of more than
3 points coming off three consecutive home games and a SUATS win is 14-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Browns lost to the Chargers on Sunday, even though they scored more than 40 points and didn’t turn the ball over a single time, there had been 401 instances in the Super Bowl era where a team had accomplished both of those feats, and those teams combined to go 401-0. However, the Browns ended that improbable 401-game winning streak that had gone on for more than 50 years. Consider that 6-0 NFL teams in Game Seven are 1-9 SUATS when facing an opponent coming off a SUATS loss, including 0-7 ATS if not favored by 12 or more points.

Rating: 5 Unit NCAAF Mismatch of the Week

It was a big “W” for the Utes last week in a double revenge matchup with USC, with a solid performance from new QB Cam Rising, but Utah is dragged down in this tilt with a 4-9 SUATS mark in games when coming off upset wins. Meanwhile, Arizona State is an ITS (In The Stats) darling this year, winning the yards in all six games while averaging +141 YPG. As a result, they are dominating the stat rankings this season, including No. 2 on the defensive side of the ball. With it, the overall yardage winner is 2-22 SU in the last 24 Utes games. ASU lost 21-3 at Utah in their most recent meeting in 2019, Herm Edwards’ worst loss with Arizona State since taking over the program four seasons ago. The Clincher: The Sun Devils are 14-4 ATS with revenge against an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 10-0 ATS against foes who allow 23 or more points per game.

Rating 4 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day

Purdue is one of only 10 teams in the nation that have out yarded every opponent they’ve faced this season, and besides a 5-1 spread record on the road versus conference revenge (plus 5-2 ATS with rest), they have covered 3 of the last four meetings in this series. Jeff Brohm is also 20-9 ATS as a dog, including 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss, so get out your crayons and color them dangerous. As for the sky-high Hawkeyes, they are 1-4 ATS at home with Big Ten revenge (lost to Purdue 24-20 in last season’s lid-lifter). While they knocked QB Clifford out of the PSU game last week, we’re banking they won’t do the same to the Boilermakers’ starting signal caller this week. The Clincher: Ferentz is 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite in conference games after defeating an undefeated foe, including 0-4-1 ATS at home, as well as 0-4-1 ATS versus winning opponents.

Rating: 5 Unit ACC Game of the Week

Playing on (Virginia Tech) any college football mission team (missed bowl game last year after having been a bowler the previous three seasons) if they are a home dog with revenge who allows fewer than 19.5 PPG if they are facing a foe that did not lose its last game by more than 3 points provided the foe rushes the ball for less than 288 YPG on the season is a perfect 18-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 4 Unit SNF Game of the Month

While the defensive genius of Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is a given, he continues to fly under the radar in games when coming off high-scoring efforts, going 8-1 SUATS in his career in games after the Bills tally 35 or more points in their previous contest. He is also 6-1 SUATS with Buffalo in matchups of winning teams when his troops own the higher win percentage. With that, we turn things over to The clincher: Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in his NFL career against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 7-0 SUATS when the Bills own a greater than .666 win percentage.