I am not typically prone to heavy chalk, sometimes the value at hand exceeds even the chalkiness of the line, and this is a prime example on today`s card. While Stephen Strasburg draws all of the attention on the National`s staff, quietly, Ryan Zimmermann is putting together a Cy Young season. he has few if any peers when he takes the mound at home where the Nats are 10-0 this year, and 13-0 going back to the end of last season. He has allowed more than 2 runs just 1 time, with Washington out scoring their opponents 72-21 in the games. San Diego has surrounded a 35-25 run, with a 5-15 start, and current 7 game losing streak, for a combined 5-22 outside their great run. Teams on 7 game losing streaks are negative value accruing a 92-142 record the last 10 years for a 9.4% ROI playing against them. When they are posted at 175 or more, they are 4-20 with a 18.9% ROI against them. Jason Marquis has been adequate on the mound for San Diego, but has walkef 60 already just 20 shy of his career high, a sure sign he has become bat shy late in his career and no longer trusts his stuff. Make the play on Washington.

This game fits a 10 year situation producing an ROI of 11.6% and the play is on Kansas City

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 7.6% to 26.5%. The play in this game is on Kansas City

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 7.6% to 26.5%. The play in this game is on Detroit

THE AMAZING BIG CHALK BAD TEAM JULY HOME FAVORITE:

One thing I learned about sports handicapping a long time ago, is there is a seasonality, of every sport. The college and professional season`s alike have become elongated with added playoff rounds, simply because of big money.

The pulse of each sport marches to a beat of it`s own, and one bulls eye that has emerged over the last 7 years is the topic of today`s newsletter.

The thinking of most gamblers when they see a losing team as a mega home favorite is to immediately shake their head, and think how over-valued they are. That may or may not be the case, but when we turn to July baseball, these mega home favorite losing teams, play better than any other team bar none throughout the MLB season, they simply have no peers.

So how do we define these super star bad teams? It is actually quite simple, but simplicity aside, they are omnipotent.

They are defined as follows:

1) July
2) home favorite
3) less than .500
4) line greater than -160

Many would be hard pressed to pull the trigger on such a team, heck they win less than half their games, and would likely seek the other side or pass, but that may change after you find out they are:

55-11 winning 83.3% of the time to what appears to be an absurd average line of -193.9! If you want to take it a step further they are 34-4 to a total of less than 9!

Tonight the Toronto Blue Jays will be ready to work their magic when they take on the Minnesota Twins where the current line is -175 and will qualify if the line stays over -160.

The situation is 32-6 taking on an opponent off a loss, and if it is the first game of the series 10-1.

There is another situation on Toronto as Mark Buehrle is the #1 starter as a home favorite over the last 10 years at 92-42 3000. he is also 33-9 as a home favorite of more than -160, which turns to 11-1 if their opponent gave up more than 8 runs in their last game. (Twins allowed 9 to NYY).

Make the play on Toronto.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 8.2% to 30.8%. The play in this game is on Texas

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 8.2% to 30.8%. The play in this game is on Kansas City

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 8.2% to 30.8%. The play in this game is on the NY Yankees.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 8.2% to 30.8%. The play in this game is on the Chicago White Sox

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 8.2% to 30.8%. The play in this game is on NY Mets.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 9.9% to 33.6%. The play in this game is on Seattle.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 9.9% to 33.6%. The play in this game is on Minnesota.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 8.3% to 16.2%. The play in this game is on Toronto.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 9.9% to 33.6%. The play in this game is on Oakland.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 9.9% to 33.6%. The play in this game is on LA Angels

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 9.9% to 33.6%. The play in this game is on Tampa Bay

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that over the past 10 seasons have produced an ROI from 9.9% to 33.6%. The play in this game is on Philadelphia.

All of today`s selections are from games that have handicapping line value, as well as 10 year situations that have returned 9.1% to 15.1% ROI. The play in this game is on Minnesota

All of today`s selections are from games that have handicapping line value, as well as 10 year situations that have returned 9.1% to 15.1% ROI. The play in this game is on the NY Mets.

There is a pitcher on this Washington National team that despite the work he has done, is still flying well under the radar. Jordan Zimmermann entered this season having gone a pedestrian 20-19 the last 2 years, despite an ERA of 3.18 in 2011, and 2.94 a year ago. This season he has been even more impressive with an ERA of 2.27 and an 11-3 record. What is more impressive is the success he has had at home. His last 13 appearances here show 86 innings just 59 hits 12 runs 65 strikeouts and just 16 walks, and 3 home runs allowed. That all equates to the Nats being 12-0 while his ERA has been a microscopic 1.26. The Nationals have owned a 62-16 scoring advantage in these games, and the opponent has never scored more than 2 runs. Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo is allowing more hits than innings pitched for the first time in his career, and perhaps his off-field issues are effecting him on the mound. Milwaukee has been a streaky team with 13 of their 32 wins coming in a pair of winning streaks, leaving them 19-48 otherwise. Milwaukee is just 15-39 as a road dog in their last 54 including a woeful 2-14 as a road dog of -151 to -200 in their last 16. Gallardo has been one of their best pitchers the past few seasons, but not this year, and even when he was pitching well, the Brewers are 9-25 in his last 34 starts as an underdog. Nats are 23-4 behind Zimmermann in his last 27 starts as a favorite, including 13-1 from -151 to -200. This is heavy chalk, but clearly looking at the numbers, simply not heavy enough. handicapping value, and situational value both side with the home team. My Play of the Week is on Washington.

: All of today`s selections are from games that have handicapping line value, as well as 10 year situations that have returned 9.1% to 15.1% ROI. The play in this game is on Toronto

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations which over the last 10 years has shown an ROI of 8.5% to 15.4%. The play in this game is on Baltimore

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations which over the last 10 years has shown an ROI of 8.5% to 15.4%. The play in this game is on LA Dodgers

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations which over the last 10 years has shown an ROI of 8.5% to 15.4%. The play in this game is on Seattle.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations which over the last 10 years has shown an ROI of 8.5% to 15.4%. The play in this game is on Texas.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations which over the last 10 years has shown an ROI of 8.5% to 15.4%. The play in this game is on Minnesota.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations which over the last 10 years has shown an ROI of 8.5% to 15.4%. The play in this game is on Cleveland.

Added play is on the LA Angels.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations which over the last 10 years has shown an ROI of 8.5% to 15.4%. The play in this game is on Atlanta.

: All of today`s selections are from handicapping line value and situations that over the past 10 years have produced an ROI from 8.8% to 16.4%. The play in this game is on Texas.

All of today`s selections are from handicapping line value and situations that over the past 10 years have produced an ROI from 8.8% to 16.4%. The play in this game is on Seattle

All of today`s selections are from handicapping line value and situations that over the past 10 years have produced an ROI from 8.8% to 16.4%. The play in this game is on Tampa Bay

All of today`s selections are from handicapping line value and situations that over the past 10 years have produced an ROI from 8.8% to 16.4%. The play in this game is on Colorado.

All of today`s selections are from games which have handicapping line value as well as situations that have a 10 year history producing an ROI from 6.6% to 14.8%. The play in this game is on Seattle

All of today`s selections are from games which have handicapping line value as well as situations that have a 10 year history producing an ROI from 6.6% to 14.8%. The play in this game is on San Francisco.

All of today`s selections are from games which have handicapping line value as well as situations that have a 10 year history producing an ROI from 6.6% to 14.8%. The play in this game is on Minnesota.

All of today`s selections are from games which have handicapping line value as well as situations that have a 10 year history producing an ROI from 6.6% to 14.8%. The play in this game is on Arizona.

All of today`s selections are from games which have handicapping line value as well as situations that have a 10 year history producing an ROI from 6.6% to 14.8%. The play in this game is on Boston.

All of today`s selections are from games which have handicapping line value as well as situations that have a 10 year history producing an ROI from 6.6% to 14.8%. The play in this game is on Tampa Bay

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations which have produced an ROI from 8.6% to 13.1%. The play in this game is on the LA Dodgers. I have a 21-0 situation on Dodger pitcher Zack Greinke.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations which have produced an ROI from 8.6% to 13.1%. The play in this game is on the NY Yankees

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations which have produced an ROI from 8.6% to 13.1%. The play in this game is on Detroit

All of today`s selections are games with handicapping line value, and situations that have an ROI ranging from 9.8% to 16.0%. The play in this game is on St. Louis

All of today`s selections are games with handicapping line value, and situations that have an ROI ranging from 9.8% to 16.0%. The play in this game is on Chicago White Sox

All of today`s selections are games with handicapping line value, and situations that have an ROI ranging from 9.8% to 16.0%. The play in this game is on Boston

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value as well as situations that have over the last 10 years held an ROI from 8.8% to 16.6%. The play in this game is on Seattle

Many think I am just a computer handicapper, and that couldn`t be the furthest from the truth. I handicap every game, and pass on games when situations are right, but the line value is not there. This is a case of a situation that plays against a team off a walk off win, when posted as a home favorite. The last 10 years the return playing against them is 13.8%. Play on Philadelphia.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value as well as situations that have over the last 10 years held an ROI from 8.8% to 16.6%. The play in this game is on Oakland

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value as well as situations that have over the last 10 years held an ROI from 8.8% to 16.6%. The play in this game is on the Chicago White Sox

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value as well as situations that have over the last 10 years held an ROI from 8.8% to 16.6%. The play in this game is on Tampa Bay

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value as well as situations that have over the last 10 years held an ROI from 8.8% to 16.6%. The play in this game is on the NY Yankees.

All of today`s games are based on handicapping line value, and situations which have produced an ROI from 6.4% to 14.9% over the last 10 years. The play in this game is on Toronto.

: All of today`s games are based on handicapping line value, and situations which have produced an ROI from 6.4% to 14.9% over the last 10 years. The play in this game is on Cleveland

All of today`s games are derived from handicapping line value and situations that have produced a 10 year ROI of 9.4% to 13.5%. The play in this game is on Arizona

All of today`s games are derived from handicapping line value and situations that have produced a 10 year ROI of 9.4% to 13.5%. The play in this game is on Seattle

All of today`s games are derived from handicapping line value and situations that have produced a 10 year ROI of 9.4% to 13.5%. The play in this game is on the LA Angels

All of today`s games are based on handicapping line value, and historic situational advantages that over the past 10 years have produced ROI`s from 13.3% to 17.2%. The play in this game is on the LAA Angels.

All of today`s games are based on handicapping line value, and historic situational advantages that over the past 10 years have produced ROI`s from 13.3% to 17.2%. The play in this game is on San Francisco

All of today`s games are based on handicapping line value, and historic situational advantages that over the past 10 years have produced ROI`s from 13.3% to 17.2%. The play in this game is on Chicago Cubs.

All of today`s games are based on handicapping line value, and historic situational advantages that over the past 10 years have produced ROI`s from 13.3% to 17.2%. The play in this game is on Chicago White Sox

All selections on today`s games are plays that have both handicapping line value, as well as historic situations that range from 7.5% to 100% ROI. The play in this game is on San Diego

All selections on today`s games are plays that have both handicapping line value, as well as historic situations that range from 7.5% to 100% ROI. This game has a situation against Pittsburgh which is 34-0 the last 10 years. The play is on LA, my MLB Game of the Month

All selections on today`s games are plays that have both handicapping line value, as well as historic situations that range from 7.5% to 100% ROI. The play in this game is on Arizona

All selections on today`s games are plays that have both handicapping line value, as well as historic situations that range from 7.5% to 100% ROI. The play in this game is on Texas

All selections on today`s games are plays that have both handicapping line value, as well as historic situations that range from 7.5% to 100% ROI. The play in this game is on Chicago White Sox.

All selections on today`s games are plays that have both handicapping line value, as well as historic situations that range from 7.5% to 100% ROI. The play in this game is on NY Mets

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, combined with historic game situations, that have produced an ROI from 8.4% to 17.1%. The play in this game is on the Chicago Cubs

All of today`s selections are from games that have handicapping line value, as well as situations which over the past 10 years has produced an ROI from 8.4% to 22.1%. The play in this game is on Minnesota

All of today`s selections are from games that have handicapping line value, as well as situations which over the past 10 years has produced an ROI from 8.4% to 22.1%. The play in this game is on Houston.

All of today`s selections are from games that have handicapping line value, as well as situations which over the past 10 years has produced an ROI from 8.4% to 22.1%. The play in this game is on Tampa Bay.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that have over the last 10 years held an ROI from 7.6% to 17.2%. The play in this game is on Arizona

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value, as well as situations that have over the last 10 years held an ROI from 7.6% to 17.2%. The play in this game is on Pittsburgh

No team has gotten more out of less over the years than the Oakland A`s. they won 2 o 3 in Texas their last time here, and the last time these teams met, the Rangers had a 5.5 game lead, and Oakland now holds a 3 game lead in the West, as they have been 17-6 since, while the Rangers have dropped 6 straight, scoring a grand total of 8 runs. Over the last 10 years in MLB teams that score less than 10 runs in 6 straight games are 83-104 in their next game. Most cappers will stop right there and back Oakland. I`m in the other camp. Teams that score 10 or less runs in their last 6 games, and playing at home are 30-17, including 11-2 as a home favorite, including 10-0 since 2007! Rangers are still 77-37 following a loss. Back Texas in this one.

The Tribe is an improved team this season, while the Nats, after a playoff appearance a year ago have not lived up to expectations this season. Stephen Strasburg has pitched very well, but Washington`s struggling offense has had trouble pushing across runs, and they are just 4-6 in his 10 starts. Strasburg is fresh off the disabled list, and will likely be on a pitch count, and may lack sharpness. tribe has been efficient in interleague home games at 8-2 in their last 10. Nats just 1-8 in their last 9 on the road vs a right handed starter. This game fits an interleague situation which has carried a huge 22.3% ROI. Play on Cleveland.

All of today`s games are based on line value, and situations which have produced a 10 year ROI from 7.6% to 22.3%. The play in this game is on San Diego.

All of today`s games are based on line value, and situations which have produced a 10 year ROI from 7.6% to 22.3%. The play in this game is on Minnesota.

All of today`s games are based on line value, and situations which have produced a 10 year ROI from 7.6% to 22.3%. The play in this game is on Seattle

All of today`s games are based on line value, and situations which have produced a 10 year ROI from 7.6% to 22.3%. The play in this game is on Cleveland

All of today`s games are based on line value, and situations which have produced a 10 year ROI from 7.6% to 22.3%. The play in this game is on Milwaukee.

All of today`s games are based on line value, and situations which have produced a 10 year ROI from 7.6% to 22.3%. The play in this game is on Tampa Bay

All of today`s games are based on line value, and situations which have produced a 10 year ROI from 7.6% to 22.3%. The play in this game is on Baltimore.

All of today`s games are based on line value, and situations which have produced a 10 year ROI from 7.6% to 22.3%. The play in this game is on Toronto

Minnesota lost 95 games in each of the past 2 seasons, but is vastly improved, and heading in the right direction. Scott Diamond has found a way to control this Tiger lineup over his career as he is 2-2 with a 2.98 ERA against them in 7 career appearances. Ricky Porcello looked like a potential top of the rotation starter in his rookie season with a 14-9 record and 3.96 ERA. he has failed to return a season with an ERA of less than 4.59 since, and currently comes in with a 4.86 ERA, and continues to be less than pedestrian. Tigers are under .500 on the road and just 15-39 as a road favorite of -110 to -150 in their last 54. Twins have struck pay dirt in 5 of their last 6 vs a right hander, and should get some good at bats vs Porcello here. Play on Minnesota.

The Miami Marlins opened a new stadium last year, and stacked their lineup and rotation with some pricey free agents. It all backfired as the free agents for the most part all went bust. They held a fire sale in the off-season and left themselves bankrupt of talent and experience. While they have had the Mets number beating them 6 of the last 7 meetings, the rest of the story is an ugly one. they are 13-45 vs all other teams. Miami owns a 5-21 record against teams over .500, so the odds here are not in line with their results. Miami`s top hitter OF Juan Pierre is riding a season-high nine-game hitting streak, but is just 1-for-17 in his career versus Westbrook. St. Louis has been at their best vs top pitching with a 21-6 ledger vs a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15 in their last 27. They are also 37-14 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Marlins just 30-63 as a home dog in their last 93, and the Cards are 23-8 against them in the last 31 meetings, including 10-2 in the last 12. Play on St. Louis

There has been a whole lot of luck for Jeremy Hellickson this year at 4-2. The Rays have scored 7 or more runs in 7 of his last 8 starts, which has masked his 5.18 ERA. Hellickson has served up 12 HR`s in just 80 innings, and has struggled all season long. Ervin Santana has had the opposite fortune, as he enters with a losing record but a stellar ERA of less than 3. he has been at his best lately allowing a total of 2 runs and 8 hits over his last 2 starts. The Royals pen has been top in the majors with a 2.76 ERA on the season. Tampa Bay could be flat here after a big series with Boston, and KC has been a hot team. KC had 17 runs and 29 hits in a pair of wins over Tampa early on. Make the play on Kansas City.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of 16.8% and the play is on Minnesota

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of 9.0% and the play is on San Diego

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value and 10 year situations that have produced an ROI from 7.0% to 22.5%. The play in this game is on San Diego

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value and 10 year situations that have produced an ROI from 7.0% to 22.5%. The play in this game is on LA

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value and 10 year situations that have produced an ROI from 7.0% to 22.5%. The play in this game is on Minnesota.

All of today`s selections are based on handicapping line value and 10 year situations that have produced an ROI from 7.0% to 22.5%. The play in this game is on Cleveland.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value and situations that have had a 10 year ROI of 8.4% to 15.0%. The play in this game is on San Diego

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value and situations that have had a 10 year ROI of 8.4% to 15.0%. The play in this game is on the LA Dodgers

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value and situations that have had a 10 year ROI of 8.4% to 15.0%. The play in this game is on Baltimore

This game fits a situation which has produced an 8.5% ROI over the last 10 years, the play is on Cincinnati.

This is a situation that is based on the 2nd game of a doubleheader, which has produced insane results of 15-2 for a greater than 50% ROI, play on Washington in game 2.

All of today`s selections are based on line value and situations that over the past 10 years has had an ROI from 8.6% to 17.9%. The play on team in this game is on Kansas City.

All of today`s selections are based on line value and situations that over the past 10 years has had an ROI from 8.6% to 17.9%. The play on team in this game is on Washington in game 1.

All of today`s selections are based on line value and situations that over the past 10 years has had an ROI from 8.6% to 17.9%. The play on team in this game is on the NY Mets.

This game fits a situation that has produced an ROI of 15.2% the last 10 yrs and the play is on Cincinnati