This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +16.6 over the last 11 years, and the play is on Texas.

This game fits a situation which has had an ROI of +51.4% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Cincinnati.

This game fits a situation which has had an ROI of +29.7% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Minnesota.

This game fits a situation that over the past 11 years has produced an ROI of +23.3%, and the play is on Miami

This game fits a situation that over the past 11 years has produced an ROI of +14.7%, and the play is on the NY Yankees.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +9.8% the last 11 years and the play is on Baltimore.

This game fits a situation which is 22-1, and the play is on the LA Angels.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +31.0% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Minnesota.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +17.5% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Detroit.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +14.9% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Tampa Bay.

This game fits a situation that has produced an ROI of +45.5% the last 11 years, and the play is on Atlanta.

This game fits a situation that has produced an ROI of +15.3% the last 11 years, and the play is on Cincinnati.

This game fits a situation that has produced an ROI of +28.8% the last 11 years, and the play is on Boston.

This game fits a situation that has produced an ROI of +10.5% the last 11 years, and the play is on Baltimore.

This game fits a situation that has produced an ROI of +15.0% the last 11 years, and the play is on Seattle.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +50.2% the past 11 years, and the play is on Philadelphia.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +50.2% the past 11 years, and the play is on the NY Mets.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +50.2% the past 11 years, and the play is on Atlanta.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +17.6% over the last 11 years, and the play is on San Francisco.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +17.6% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Detroit.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +34.1% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Atlanta.

This game fits a situation which has had an ROI of +22.5% the last 11 years, and the play is on the Chicago White Sox.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +11.9% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Cincinnati.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +25.7% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Detroit.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +17.6% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Baltimore.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +51.4% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Arizona.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +12.4% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the NY Yankees.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +15.6% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Minnesota.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +23.0% the last 11 years, and he play is on Arizona.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +31.9% the last 11 years, and he play is on San Diego.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +38.5% the last 11 years, and he play is on the LA Angels.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +37.6% the last 11 years, and the play is on the LA Angels.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +16.2% the last 11 years, and the play is on the SF Giants.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +35.5% the last 11 years, and the play is on Philadelphia.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +38.3% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the LA Angels.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +52.4% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Atlanta.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +26.4% over the last 11 years, and the play is on St. Louis.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +20.5% over the last 11 years, and the play is on San Diego.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +40.0% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Minnesota.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +17.8% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Atlanta.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +22.6% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Miami.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +40.9% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Oakland.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +22.2% over the last 11 years, and the play is on San Diego.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +40.9% over the last 11 years, and the play is on Minnesota.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +17.5% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the NY Yankees.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +41.5% the last 11 years, make the play on Oakland.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +41.5% the last 11 years, make the play on Minnesota.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +10.6% the last 11 years, make the play on Baltimore.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +18.7% the last 11 years, and the play is on Minnesota.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +18.7% the last 11 years, and the play is on Philadelphia.

This game fits a situation which has had an ROI of +34% over the last 11 years, make the play on Philadelphia.

This game fits a situation which has had an ROI of +18.6% over the last 11 years, make the play on St. Louis.

This game fits a situation which has had an ROI of +34% over the last 11 years, make the play on Detroit.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +22.3%, and the play is on the LA Dodgers.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +22.3%, and the play is on the Chicago Cubs.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +18.3%, and the play is on Seattle.

The NY Mets came through last night under intense pressure, knowing full well that trying to overcome a 0-3 deficit in their series vs the Royals would be too deep a hole to climb out of. They have made it a series again, have the momentum, have the home field, have the right starter, and playing in the price range they have dominated in this season. That being said, the Royals are in a historically convincing spot to go on to win the series, as in World Series history a team up 2-1 in the series having played 2 at home, then 1 on the road, and having won the first 2, then losing the third, an exact match as to what we have here, have gone on to win it 14 of 21 times (67%). That is 2-1 favorite odds and see them at -185, so no value on the series futures in my opinion. Onto game 4. Yes, it is Halloween Night, and for those into karma, and eerie feelings on this eerie night, will like the following fact. The last time the Mets won a World Series back in 1986 how about this:

The Mets lost game 1 by a single run, this year the Mets lost game 1 by a single run.

The Mets lost game 2 by 6 runs, this year the Mets lost game 2 by 6 runs.

The Mets came back hard and won game 3 by 6 runs, this year the Mets came back hard to win game 3 by 6 runs.

How perfect for Halloween Night! Incidentally, the Mets went on to win game 4 by 4 runs, this year???

New York once again finds themselves in their sweet spot, as they are now 16-1 on the season as a home favorite from greater than -125 to less than -145, winners of 12 straight out-scoring opponents 76-21 in the 12 games. Steven Matz gets the ball tonight for the Mets, and in his 8 starts, opponents have scored just 18 total runs, including the bull pen. History tells us that a team that leads a World Series 2-1, on the road for game 4, are just 18-25, if the win order is WWL they are 11-16, and if the site order is HHA, and the win order is WWL, they are 7-14 (that is the history of what has occurred for tonight's game in past World Series). Make the play on New York.

The Chicago Cubs came home down 2-0 to the NY Mets in the NLCS, and simply could not respond to the sense of urgency. Now it is the Mets down 2-0, and coming home with the same sense of urgency, on an even bigger stage. Some think they are done, others think they are home and will respond. I link my thinking on what has happened this season regarding tonight's starting pitchers. Ventura has had a sound season, but the road numbers don't offer a lot of confidence. yes, he was 8-7 on the road, but the record is somewhat diluted as the Royals over-achieved offensively when he took the mound on the road, averaging over 5 runs a game. He needed that support because opponents averaged 4.2 runs a game in his 15 road starts. Remember what I said about his support on the road, which is somewhat random, filled with variance on a short number of games, as he drew the long straw this season. The fact is, he won just 1 single road game when the Royals scored less than 5 runs!That bears significance here vs a Mets team behind Syndergaard, in his 13 home starts went 10-3, and more importantly, opponents averaged just 2.3 runs in his 13 home starts, counting the bullpen. Those 13 starts saw him and the Mets bullpen allow more than 3 runs in just 3 of them. The Mets are 42-10 this season at home when the opponent scores 3 or less runs. The Mets outscored the opponent 4.1-2.3 in Syndergaard's 13 home starts, so he didn't draw the long straw, he drew an average one. Mets home sweet spot this season has been as a favorite from greater than -125 to less than -145 where they went 15-1, outscoring opponents 5.3-2.2, and that includes 13-0 vs opponents greater than .350. The Mets got here with a deep starting rotation, and after a pair of games that went over the total, they have come back to go 34-13 this season, a product of their pitching depth. Last, Kansas City in their last 12 road games vs opponents better than .530 are a woeful 2-10, including 0-7 if they are off a win. Historically in MLB playoff history, road teams that lead a series 2-0 off of 2 home wins are 19-33 in game 3, and if it is the World Series they are 16-21. Make the play on New York.

It is hard to ignore the job Jake Arrieta has done this season. he did get hit last game in an 8-6 Cubs win over St. Louis, but over the last couple of years when an opponent has scored 4 or more runs in the previous game he started, he has been electric. The Cubs own a 13-4 record in a start by Arrieta that follows a start when the opponent scored 4 or more runs. Those games show opponents totaled just 32 total runs, or just 2 a game, and if you take away one game where an outlier 8 were scored, it reduces to 24 runs in 17 starts, or 1.3 a contest (this is all runs not just runs off him, as are all the above numbers). Since the start of the 2014 season, Arrieta has faced the Mets 4 times, and they have scored a grand total of 4 runs, and never more than 1. Meanwhile, opponents have totaled 3 or more runs in each of Syndergaard's last 10 starts. The Cubs got 6 runs in his only start against them. Cubs are 42-13 in their last 55 against a right handed starter, including 10-0 behind Arrieta. Mets also 0-5 behind Syndergaard in his last 5 starts off a quality start. Make the play on Chicago.

The NY Mets look to close out the LA Dodgers at home tonight at Citi Field. they will have to take on Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw has dominated the regular season, but has suffered in the post-season with an ugly 1-6 record backed by an unthinkable 6.44 ERA. Does Kershaw run out of gas come October? This is a guy that has averaged 231 innings a season for the last 6 years including the post-season. perhaps one tell-tale sign is the fact that over the last 3 seasons he has allowed 8 HR's to left handed hitters, but 3 in the post season over the same period. Mets call on rookie Steven Matz. Matz led the Mets to a 5-1 record in 6 starts. he has pitched to a huge crowd while shutting out the Yankees in a big time atmosphere, so he won't be rattled here. Home dogs have a 46-43 SU record in the MLB playoffs the last 12 years, and when off a home dog win they are 7-3 including 6-1 lately. Mets seemed to lose their focus at home down the stretch with a huge lead, finishing 7-14 here, but were 43-18 prior to that, and proved they were ready in game 3. The Dodgers are just 37-45 on the road this season, and just 11-21 in their last 32 vs a team better than .500 on the road. The Dodgers have dropped 9 straight games to a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600, and stand at just 4-16 in their last 20 playoff road games. Mets momentum has poised them at 25-8 in their last 33 games after scoring 5+ runs. Make the play on New York.

Like most teams once you get past the top 2 starters in the rotation, the numbers decline rapidly, as is the case with the Dodgers. Kershaw and Greinke were a combined 44-23 on the season, but the rest of the Dodger starters just 49-48, with Anderson at 16-15. Dodgers just 10-15 on the road from June on away from LA vs a winning team, including a 15-2 loss to NY behind Harvey. Make the play on the NY Mets.

Home dogs in the playoffs have not had any success this season, but the fact is, over the last dozen years they are a robust 46-42, a winning record at plus odds. That equates to a +12.8% ROI. I also have a few other situations supporting the dog here as well. Make the play on Texas.

Teams playing at home with a home winning percentage of greater than .650 would seem like great bets in the playoffs, but that is not true, as playing against them yields a healthy 8.6% ROI on their opponent. Houston has had a top heavy pitching rotation this season, as they were 47-21 when McHugh or Keuchel started. The rest of the starters went a combined 42-56. Make the play on Kansas City.

Many pundits had the Toronto Blue Jays winning it all, but what are they saying now that the Jays have their back to the wall down 0-2 in their series with the Texas Rangers? The Toronto pitching remains suspect, and now must hit the road where they have a losing record on the season, allowing 1 run per game more, than they do at home. Toronto is now 1-6 in their last 7 games, their worst 7 game stretch since the middle of May. The Rangers were 43-49 on July 20th, and have been 47-25 since, and in those 72 games have been every bit as offensive as the Toronto Blue Jays, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. The fact is these teams are now 4-4 and in the Jays 4 losses, they scored 8 total runs. Martin Perez has some misleading numbers as his limited appearances prior to August showed opponents scoring 10.7 runs a game, but just 3.6 since August 1. teams that lost the first 2 games of a series at home as a favorite, are 5-10 in game 3, including 0-2 as a favorite. Make the play on Texas.

Watching Dallas Keuchel pitch against the Yankees, and surgically taking the bats right out of their hands, makes Houston look to be invincible in this one, especially when you consider the fact the Astros had a .654 winning percentage at home in the regular season. Those things all look good, but what they have done is fuel the line here, and Kansas City certainly is a quality team, that had a winning road record this season. Edinson Volquez allowed 3 runs or less in 25 of his 33 starts on the season, and is certainly capable of keeping the Royals in the game. Teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .650, playing at home as a favorite, against a team with a road winning percentage of better than .500 in series game 3, are 1-9 SU, including 0-6 if the line is greater than -135. The dog has some bite here, make the play on Kansas City.

All of today's selections are based on positive line value and situations that have produced an ROI from 15.3% to 53.3%. The play in this game is on Oakland.

All of today's selections are based on positive line value and situations that have produced an ROI from 15.3% to 53.3%. The play in this game is on the Chicago White Sox.

All of today's selections are based on positive line value and situations that have produced an ROI from 15.3% to 53.3%. The play in this game is on Tampa Bay.

All of today's selections are based on positive line value and situations that have produced an ROI from 15.3% to 53.3%. The play in this game is on Minnesota.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 11.5% to 37.3%. The play in this game is on the Chicago White Sox.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 11.5% to 37.3%. The play in this game is on San Francisco.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 11.5% to 37.3%. The play in this game is on Cincinnati.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 15.5% to 52.5%. The play in this game is on the Chicago White Sox.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 15.5% to 52.5%. The play in this game is on Cincinnati.

 All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 15.5% to 52.5%. The play in this game is on St. Louis in the 1st game of the doubleheader.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 15.5% to 40.3%. The play in this game is on Milwaukee.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 15.5% to 40.3%. The play in this game is on Oakland.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 15.5% to 40.3%. The play in this game is on the Chicago White Sox.

The last week of the MLB season often has teams trying to secure a playoff spot, and others that have been eliminated quite some time ago. Today in the newsletter we will take a peak at how some of these elite teams finish the season, from game 155 to game 161 (game 162 has its own rules, the finale).

The first thing needed to do is establish what exactly an elite team is? The situation here calls for a team heading into the final week of the regular season with more than 90 wins. Let's set up exactly when they are a punching bag for bettors:

1) Play against team has greater than 90 wins

2)  Play against team is a favorite of less than -175

3)  Total is less than 9.5

4) Final week of the season game number 156-161 (season finale not applicable)


These elite favorites have fallen very hard at 45-72 to an average line of -140!

Playing against them has yielded a 72-45 record to an average line of +130!

That represents an ROI of +42.2%, and has had 11 straight winning seasons!

Winning 61.5% of bets at +130 odds is unheard of!  Until now!

Today the play on teams are:

St. Louis***** and Baltimore

*****St. Louis has over 90 wins, and when that has been the case, the favorite is 3-8, even worse!

Best of Luck,
East

The last week of the MLB season often has teams trying to secure a playoff spot, and others that have been eliminated quite some time ago. Today in the newsletter we will take a peak at how some of these elite teams finish the season, from game 155 to game 161 (game 162 has its own rules, the finale).

The first thing needed to do is establish what exactly an elite team is? The situation here calls for a team heading into the final week of the regular season with more than 90 wins. Let's set up exactly when they are a punching bag for bettors:

1) Play against team has greater than 90 wins

2)  Play against team is a favorite of less than -175

3)  Total is less than 9.5

4) Final week of the season game number 156-161 (season finale not applicable)


These elite favorites have fallen very hard at 45-72 to an average line of -140!

Playing against them has yielded a 72-45 record to an average line of +130!

That represents an ROI of +42.2%, and has had 11 straight winning seasons!

Winning 61.5% of bets at +130 odds is unheard of!  Until now!

Today the play on teams are:

St. Louis***** and Baltimore

*****St. Louis has over 90 wins, and when that has been the case, the favorite is 3-8, even worse!

Best of Luck,
East

All of today's selections are based on line value and historic situations which have an ROI of +15.7% to +31.8%. Make the play on Milwaukee.

All of today's selections are based on line value and historic situations which have an ROI of +15.7% to +31.8%. Make the play on Cleveland.

All of today's selections are based on line value and historic situations which have an ROI of +15.7% to +31.8%. Make the play on Boston.

Seems like the St. Louis Cardinals have been trying to put away the Pittsburgh Pirates for a long time. last night saw the Brewers win 4-3 shaving another game off their lead, reducing it to 3. The Cards may be feeling the heat, as hey are a pedestrian 11-11 in their last 22 games. The Cards have to go to Pittsburgh for a 3 game set starting Monday, the question is, how big will the lead be getting there? Jaime Garcia is off a no decision, and 2 rocky starts is far from a slam dunk her vs Milwaukee. Milwaukee fits a long standing late season big dog spot, one that is 59-69 but has had an ROI of +31.3% and has come up huge time and time again. Make the play on Milwaukee.

The Washington Nationals have to be one of the most unmotivated teams in MLB right now. They were projected prior to the season to be the team to record the most regular season wins, and they are not even going to sniff the playoffs. Stephen Strasburg steps to the mound today for the Nats, just 10-7 on the season with a 3,81 ERA. Phillies starter Aaron Nola has been every bit as good at 6-2 with a 3.84 ERA, pitching behind a team that is 40 games below .500. The Phillies may be the only team with incentive here, trying to avoid a 100 loss season. They are poised for another win based on their dog win last night, and a couple of other factors that have seen teams go 110-122 to an average line of +173 good for an ROI of 22.8% Washington looked dead last night, no revival forecast here. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Texas Rangers fit into a 97-44 situation based in part on their recent offensive surge. Make the play on Texas.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 12.1% to 40.1%. The play in this game is on Colorado.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 12.1% to 40.1%. The play in this game is on the NY Yankees.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 12.1% to 40.1%. The play in this game is on the Chicago White Sox.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 13.2% to 35.9%. The play in this game is on Oakland.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 13.2% to 35.9%. The play in this game is on Pittsburgh.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 13.2% to 35.9%. The play in this game is on Tampa Bay.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of 31.8% the last 12 years. The play is on the Chicago White Sox (Game 2 of the double header).

This game fits a situation which is 122-101 on Milwaukee, but more importantly has an ROI over the last 12 years of 16.2%. Make the play on Milwaukee.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 16.0% to 47.0%. The play in this game is on the Chicago White Sox.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 16.0% to 47.0%. The play in this game is on Baltimore.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 16.0% to 47.0%. The play in this game is on Arizona.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 7.9% to 48.2%. The play in this game is on the LA Angels.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 7.9% to 48.2%. The play in this game is on Texas.

All of today`s selections are based on positive line value, and situations that over the last 12 years, have produced ROI`s from 11.4% to 32.4%. The play in this game is on Miami.