The Clemson Tigers certainly look the part of a team destined for the final four. Clemson will take on Georgia Tech who runs out of the triple option, where the ball is on the ground 80% of the time. The problem is, the option has not been successful against Clemson. This year the Tigers have gone against the option vs Georgia Southern, and even Furman has triple option elements in its offense. Tech runs it with better athletes, but the speed and size Clemson brings to the table has stopped the Tech option cold. The last 3 years, Clemson has held the Tech running game to 364 yards on 123 carries, at just shy of 3 yards a carry. The vulnerability in this Clemson defense is through the air, but Tech has completed 13 passes in 3 years vs Clemson, as that is simply not their offense. Tech is pretty pedestrian on defense, and they will have difficulty stopping a Clemson offense that is generating 7.4 yards per play on the season including an elite 9.3 yards per attempt in the air. This is a mismatch to start with, but the Tech style is not in the mold to threaten or compete with Clemson. Make the play on Clemson.

The Ole Miss Rebels program spun out of control under Hugh Freeze, and they will once again be under Bowl sanctions. many will say this will be Ole Miss' Bowl game, facing Alabama, but that was true last year as well, and they lost 66-3. The Ole Miss offense appears formidable once again, but so was it last year, when they averaged 36ppg coming into the Alabama game, and were completely shut down. The bigger problem is the defense that allowed 34ppg last season, that gave up 41 to S. Illinois last week, and has allowed 44ppg to Alabama in the last 7 meetings. This may be the best Alabama offense in the Saban era. Tua Tagovailoa is throwing for 13 yds. per attempt with 7 TDs and 0 INT's. he is backed up by Jalen Hurts, and a bevy of RB's so the backdoor is less likely than ever for the Tide. NCAA Football is a momentum spirt. A road favorite that has won 2 straight by 27 or more points, against a team that allowed 37 or more in its last game is 155-88 ATS, with a sunset that is 80-29 ATS. Alabama is 10-3 ATS as a road chalk of 20 or more, including 8-2 ATS in the Saban era. Play on Alabama.

Tulsa won 10 games in 2016, and came back in 2017, and lost 10. They suffered a lot injuries, but this team simply was not competitive. Coach Montgomery, now in his 4th year, realizes the Golden Hurricanes fortunes have to change, or he will be out the door. He went for the quick fox of a poor defense, signing 8 JUCO Transfers for a defense. Arkansas St. has an experienced and really good QB, and 4 WR's that are from 6'3" to 6'6" all with skill. Last week Arkansas St. was ripped by Alabama 57-7 so they are not on anyone's radar, but the Red Wolves generated nearly 400 yards of offense against the Tide. Tulsa played Texas close, at least on the scoreboard, as they were out-gained by well over 100 yards. Arkansas St. is quite simply the better team, and should get the outright win here. Make the play on Arkansas St.

This game is based on an incredible situation that brings 2 teams together that both fit a similar situation, one as the home team, one as the road team. Auburn fits a situation that is 35-4-4 to the under, and LSU fits a very similar situation as the road team, which is 37-10-4 to the under. Combined these merging situations have gone 72-14-8 to the under. Make the play on the under.

Rutgers sure has had trouble since joining the Bog-12. That rings especially true against what are the annually best teams in the Big-10, Michigan St., Penn St., Ohio St., Michigan, and Wisconsin. Rutgers in their last 16 games against that group is 2-13-1 ATS having been out-scored 46-6. They have faced Ohio St. 4 times, losing by a combined score of 219-24, or 54.8-6.0. That is 49 points a game, and the distance between these teams is just as wide this year. Ohio St. has won every game by 39 points or more. Last week the Buckeyes put up 77 against Oregon St. They were even picked off in the end-zone on another possession, that was run back 82 yards to set up a FG. Three scores against them of 50,80, and 80 yards, wasn't even enough to keep it within 46. Ohio St.'s reserves continued to score, so I'm not so concerned about a back door cover here by Rutgers. One of the ugliest games on the schedule. Make the play on Ohio St.

Many will look at the FAU debacle at Oklahoma last week, and decide that last year's potent team was just a fluke, or that this team isn't nearly as good. last year they started 1-3, and proceeded to run the table. One of those early season losses was vs Wisconsin, where they got 9 first downs, to Wisconsin's 29. Wisconsin went for almost 600 yards, FAU about 250. Air Force is not Oklahoma, or Wisconsin, and they will travel over 2000 miles for this one. Air Force was 5-7 last year, and did not beat a single winning team. They opened with an easy win vs Stony Brook, but lost in the shuffle was their very poor 77 rushed for 333 yards, just 4.3ypc, 2 lost fumbles, and just 2 pass completions. The Air Force defense allowed 6ypc a year ago, and FAU is a powerful running team. Worthman runs the ball too much, and his completion percentage was under 50% a year ago, and things look the same. FAU off an embarrassing loss and coming home, will be primed to do big damage here. Make the play on FAU. 

Central Michigan went to Kentucky last week, and suffered a 35-20 loss. They managed to get the cover, but not much else. The Wildcats played an awful game, turning the ball over 4 times, forcing 0. They were lucky to win as a team making 4 turnovers, to their opponent's 0, have been 34-273 SU in NCAAF. Additionally, C. Michigan scored on a fumble return for a TD, so the offense with 4 extra possessions, put up 13. Kansas has not won more than 3 games in any season over the last 8 years. Their last win by more than 3 points vs an FBS opponent came all the way back to November 8th, 2014. They proceeded to lose at home to Nicholls St. in their opener, and the offense was dead, going back to last year's starting QB, Bender, is not the answer. I honestly don't know where the points are coming from here, neither team has a trustworthy proven QB. Make the play on the under.

TCU and SMU both reside in Texas, and have met with a high level of frequency through the years. SMU had some early success in the history between these teams, but recently, it has been all SCU. Gary Pattersin finally gets his prized 4* QB Shawn Robinson under center. Robinson was the first ever 4* QB recruit at TCU. Robinson is a bona fide duel threat QB, running 23 times for 6.9 yards a carry a year ago, and just 2 runs last week for 45 yards. He is surrounded by the highest rated skill set of players in TCU history, and against a Sonny Dykes team, that never has even an average defense, and was torched by N. Texas for 500+ yards a week ago, and completely shutdown offensively, it doesn't look like a good match up here for the Mustangs. N. Texas led 36-0 going to the 4th quarter, as the SMU offense could do nothing. SMU has an extremely poor history vs P5 schools, are 0-15 SU since a 2010 win vs Washington St, just 4-10-1 ATS. Longer term they are a woeful 1-31 SU vs Pr teams since 2001, and just 10-21-1 ATS. They have allowed 41.9ppg in those 32 contests, and this defense is capable of seeing that grow. Breaking diwn the numbers further shows the Mustangs at 3-18-1 ATS vs P5 schools from +32 or less in their last 22. Most recently, in their last 4 vs P5 teams, they have been out-scored 203-30. This looks like a bargain, and a blowout, make the play on TCU.

Hawaii had some question marks at QB entering the 2018 season, but those may have been answered quickly. QB Cole McDonald led a high powered run and shoot offense to perfection vs Colorado St. in a 43-34 upset shootout. The teams combined for 1270 total yards. McDonald was surprisingly good throwing for 418 yards, and 3 TD's, while running for 96 more and a pair of scores. Coach Nick Rolovich promised to bring in the run and shoot, and McDonald has the look of so many outstanding run and shoot QB's that have led high octane offenses. Navy has to replace 7 defenders from a year ago, and additionally has Malcolm Perry, called by 21 year Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo, the most dynamic QB he has ever coached. he will start, despite QB Zack Abey coming off a season of running for 1,413 yards (2nd best in Navy history). Hawaii showed a lot of holes on defense in their opener, allowing over 600 yards, so I am expecting a shootout here, with both offenses far ahead of the defenses. Navy has a history of allowing a lot of points to a team that went for 400+ on the air in their last contest, allowing 37.7ppg when facing them. The last 5 times Navy has been a double-digit road favorite, they have gone for 40+, and have averaged 38.2ppg as a 10+ point road favorite in all games. make the play on the over.

The W. Virginia Mountaineers were on the move last year at 7-3, losing only to V. Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. Those teams were a collective 31-9. They then lost QB Will Grier, and proceeded to lose 3 straight, by an average score of 39-20. It caused the Mounties to suffer on both sides of the ball. They went from winning at the line of scrimmage by +0.9 yards per play, to losing at the line by -2.6. The value of a healthy Grier goes beyond points. Tennessee averaged 14.1ppg in 8 conference games a year ago, never getting to even 27 points in any of them. The offense this season looks to be just about the same. Overall, they averaged 15.4ppg in their last 10. Grier is healthy, and W. Virginia is going to average over 40ppg this year (39ppg a year ago). The 3 best offenses this team saw a year ago were Alabama (45), Georgia (41), and Missouri (50). You can see where I am going with this. make the play on W. Virginia.

A lot of stuff going on at Ohio St. I'm sure these kids are itching to get on the field, and take out some of their anguish. They will do as they please vs an Oregon St. team that has not won on the road since 2014 (0-17), allowing 44.1ppg on the process. Overall, last year the Beavers allowed 43ppg, and I don't see much here that will improve upon that. This team is close to being a bottom 20 team in the country, and with so many injuries coming into game 1, at key spots, things could get worse. Ohio St. has been very good at these huge lined games, 12-7 ATS, and while there will be a lot of garbage time, the Ohio St. backups, in most cases, are better than the Oregon St. starters. Not much you can say about a game like this, except, this could easily be one of those 70-7 type games. Make the play on Ohio St.

The Wyoming Cowboys will have to experience life without QB Josh Allen, who was a first round pick in the NFL draft. Those are shoes that simply won't be filled anytime soon. Despite having a first-round NFL caliber QB, the Cowboys managed just 23.5 points per game last year, and there is a pretty good chance they will erode considerably from that pedestrian number. Wyoming had been looking forward to the return of RBs Trey Woods and junior Kellen, but Woods was declared ineligible, and the tandem fell shy of 1,000 yards last season. The good news is that eight starters return from a stingy defense that allowed 17.5 ppg, and forced a nation's best 38 turnovers. The Aggies ended the nation's longest Bowl drought at 57 years, and won their Bowl game to cap it off. It was their last season in the Sun Belt, as they become an FBS Independent. The offense will be led by Senior QB Nick Jeanty, who has five career starts and has passed for 1,028 yards with six TDs and six interceptions in 14 games. They bring back seven starters, along with Frank Spaziani, a former head coach at Boston College. He's made a huge difference, turning one of the nation's worst defenses in '16, into one that forced 27 turnovers, and saw the pathetic 11 sacks in '16 rise to 43 last year. Both of these teams will struggle offensively, but on defense they should both excel, so play this one to finish UNDER the total.

The Colorado St. Rams lost a strong QB from a year ago, but I think the offense is in good hands with K.J. Carta-Samuels coming over from Washington as a grad transfer. Their #1 receiver has departed but Olabisi Johnson, averaged 10.5 per target. The Rams passing attack has also added Tennessee transfer, Preston Williams, so I don`t think this offense is going to starve. Hawaii WR John Ursua, went down midway through last season and what was a pretty decent offense went in the tank. Ursua is healthy and is a difference maker. Colorado St. has a very suspect secondary, and are not all that good up front as well, and Hawaii should have success moving the chains. I think both these teams will have success moving the chains, and look for this game to play over the total.

A familiar face and a team that has not won a National Championship since the days of Herchel Walker will square off in the NCAA Football National Championship game. The familiar face is Alabama, they have dominated the college football landscape in the Saban era, that began in 2008. His team is healthy again on defense, and we saw that vs Clemson, keeping the Tigers out of the end-zone. Alabama has lost just 14 games since 2008, and it isn't often a freshamn QB beats a Saban team, in fact there have been just 2, Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M, and Trevor Knight of Oklahoma. I'm not sure Jake Fromm is among the caliber of QB needed to beat Alabama, in fact 10 of the 14 QB's that posted a win vs the Tide in the Saban era were Jr's or Sr.'s. The Saban coaching tree is expansive, and all 11 coaches formerly on his staff are a combined 0-11 against him, losing by a combined margin of 316 points, or 427-111. Saban owns 20 wins vs top 5 teams, more than any other coach by a long shot. The odds makers have this one set with a line of -3.5 to -4, and a total of 45.5, which means the expected score rounding the line off to 4  and 45, would say 24.5-20.5. A perspective on that and a measuring stick would be that Saban is 112-1 SU when the opponent scores less than 23. Saban is also 9-1 ATS to a line of +6.5 to -4 at Alabama, 9-0 SU/ATS if the total is less than 55 in those games, covering by a staggering 18ppg. Georgia beat Oklahoma by virtue of long breakaway plays from the line of scrimmage in their running game. I doubt that will happen here. The Tide has allowed just 1 running touchdown of more than 5 yards this season (16 yards vs Auburn). They have also allowed 2 TD passes from outside of the red-zone all year, and one of those was to Fresno St. when leading 34-3, and back ups in the game. Alabama has allowed just 3 first half TD's all season, and Georgia can not afford to get behind here, because the running game is essential to their success. Saban has faced 18 monster running attacks at Alabama, each averaging over 250 yards per game, and held them on average to 38 carries for 125 yards. Georgia had problems defending Oklahoma as expected, but it was the way the Sooners gashed the Bull Dogs on the ground that is an eye opener. The Dogs have allowed 8 TD's from outside the red-zone. Alabama is healthy on defense, and held Clemson out of the end-zone, and 188 total yards. the Tigers had a potent running game that generated 64 yards on 33 carries. Auburn generated just 3.4 yards per attempt in their 26-14 win vs the Tide, with Alabama missing several key defenders. The Tide held Fla. St. (with Francois),Auburn, Clemson, LSU, A&M, Miss., and Miss St. all to 3.5 yards or less rushing the ball. It has also been 43 games since a team has run for 200 yards vs Alabama.  Chubb and Michel ran for 199 yards back in 2015 vs the Tide, but was down 38-3 at home, and Chubb broke one for 83 yards against reserves, in a 38-10 loss. This is a first for Georgia, while Alabama has been here many times before, and appear to be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Make the play on Alabama.

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL - Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Sugar Bowl will play host for round 3 of Clemson v Alabama. These teams have split games the past 2 years in the Championship game, this year just 1 will make it, the winner of this game. Clemson is 40-3 SU over the period and the Tide is 39-3 SU, as both have dominated NCAA Football the past 3 years, with a combined 4 losses vs any other team. There are a lot of similarities, but one huge difference. Deshaun Watson is no longer at Clemson. To put into perspective what he did in the last 2 meetings, how about this stat. Clemson gained 1,055 yards vs Alabama the last 2 years, and Watson accounted for 825 of them through the air, and another 116 on the ground for a total of 941 of 1055 yards, or a ridiculous 89.1% of all yards. I have a great deal of respect for Kelly Bryant, but he is filling impossible shoes. We all knew how good Watson was, but it was certainly deemed real when he started dominating in the NFL as well before he was injured. Clemson is not an elite offense this year, far from it. They average 6.0 yds per play vs a schedule of opponents that combine to allow 5.7. Compare that to Alabama who averages 6.9 vs a schedule of opponents allowing 5.7. Defensively both of these teams are as good as it gets, Clemson allowing 4.3 yards a play vs a schedule of opponents that have combined to average 5.6. Alabama is allowing 4.0 to a schedule of opponents that combine to average 5.7. Alabama has better numbers on both sides of the ball, and more importantly, an experienced QB that has been here before. Jalen Hurts has thrown 1 INT all season, and Alabama seldom beats themselves, and has not made more than a single turnover in any game this season vs an opponent that was over .500 prior to the game. Alabama was not healthy late in the season, they lost 3 top LB's and they are all ready to go now. The defense may in fact be better. This will likely be a lower scoring game than the shootouts we have seen in the first 2, as I think both offenses are not as good, although I give the edge to Alabama, and the experience to Alabama, while the defenses are as good as ever. Revenge, experience at QB, a better offense. Saban is 9-2 ATS if he is a favorite of -4 or less, including pick or dog. Make the play on Alabama.

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

The Rose Bowl will host the 1st playoff game that has a pair of 12-1 teams, with stark contrasts going at it. Georgia power running game, and great defense, vs Oklahoma's power passing attack. The one question that comes to mind certainly is the health of Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, who has suffered the last several days from what is described as flu-like symptoms. He has been limited in practice, and did not participate in team events. While he may be fine, he may have issues with hydration, and stamina, we will have to see. I will assume he is 100% healthy. Thre have been a handful of January Bowl games that have put a prolific offense, against a prolific defense. I would define that as an offense that has averaged greater than 42 points a game coming into their January contest, going against a team that has allowed less than 16 points per game. Most of these games play out very close, as since the start of the 2006 season there have been just 8 such games, and 5 of them have been decided by 1 possession. If you go back all the way to 1987, there have been 22 such games. These games have seen the powerful offense average just 24.2ppg, while allowing 23.4ppg. They have on average played out very close. What you see by the numbers however, the games have not been very high scoring, in fact, 19 of the 22 failed to get to the total posted in this contest, and all 8 since 2006 have played under the total, and the most points the winner has ever had is 35, while the most points the loser has ever had is 21, which is still shy of the posted total here. The general history shows any Bowl team that averages more than 42 points a game erodes from the layoff to an average of 30ppg in a January Bowl game, while team that allows less than 16ppg, erodes a much lesser rate, allowing 21ppg. Neither of those scenarios says this one gets into the 60s. Make the play on the under.

ND is missing about 50% of their TD catches from an already suspect passing game. Running game has not been good against the better defenses. Josh Adams well over 1000 yds against crap teams, just 69-220 vs GA.MICH ST.,MIA,STAN,WF, similar lack of success for Wimbush, 264 vs those teams. ND  2-3/1-4 run for under 100, 7-0/6-1 over it. LSU much improved against the run down the stretch (

It has been quite a turnaround at C. Florida, a team that was 0-12 just 2 years ago ran the table to finish the season at 12-0. They do however have one big obstacle in the way, and that is Auburn. Many have already considered that Auburn will be a no-show, having lost the opportunity to play in a National Championship game, and I don't believe that is going to be the case, at least if you take a look at history. I take you back to the 2006-07 season. Hawaii led by Colton Brennan had an unstoppable offense. Brennan had completed 73% of his passes, and ran the ball well. He finished the year with 5,549 passing yards, and a ridiculous 58 TD's. Most thought the warriors would take down a tough defensive SEC team in Georgia. Well, they lost  41-10, ran the ball for negative yardage, and a team that passed for 10 yards per attempt was held to 5.5, and 6 turnovers. Next up was the unbeaten Cincinnati team, taking on a powerful SEC defense. Tony Pike had 29 TD's , but against the Florida defense was stopped cold, 170 yards at 3.8 yds per attempt, and the power running game as held to 3.3 yds a carry, and 76 yards. Florida won 54-21, (led 37-3 and called off the dogs). How about the amazing Jordan Lynch for N. Illinois. Lynch passed and ran over everyone, until meeting the powerful Florida St. defense. Lynch finished that year just shy of 2,000 rushing yards as a QB, but just 23-44 vs Florida St, and 15-41 in the air, 176 yards at 4.3 an attempt. They lost 31-10. How about the amazing Ball St. team behind Nate Davis. Davis averaged a prolific 9 yds an attempt. , he went 9-29 vs Tulsa for 143 yards, his team was 28-81 on the ground. Now it is the potent offense of C. Florida that goes up against an elite Auburn defense. Auburn also has an elite offense. We saw Memphis that rolled over everyone, get held to 20 vs Iowa St. This Georgia defense is way beyond what Iowa St. has. The SEC since 2006 is 9-1 ATS vs an unbeaten team in a Bowl game, and look for that to go to 10-1 after Auburn crushes C. Florida. Make the play on Auburn.

The South Carolina Gamecocks and the Michigan Wolverines are both 8-4 heading into their New Year's Day Bowl game. South Carolina perhaps played their best 2 games, in their first 2. They beat a good NC State team, and dominated Missouri, although Missouri was not good at all early in the season. They have had offensive issues all season, have not had a single running back carry the ball even 100 times, and the passing game behind Jake Bentley has been average at best. He has thrown for 16 TD's, but also 11 INT's. Th offense was derailed completely vs the 2 top defensive teams they faced, in Georgia, and Clemson, scoring just 10 points in each. They combined for 487 yards in those games on 133 plays, for a woeful 3.6 yards per play. Michigan brings in a defense capable of the same. The Wolverines could not handle the Big-10 elite teams, as all 4 losses came to Penn St, Michigan St., Wisconsin, and Ohio St. Those 4 teams are a combined 46-8, and Michigan managed just 13.3ppg in the 4 contests, and allowed 27.8ppg. The 8 wins were an entirely different story. The Wolverines averaged 32ppg and allowed 13.3ppg, winning all 8 games by 7 points or more, and 7 of the 8 by 16 or more. There is optics saying that Brandon Peters is an upgrade at QB for Michigan. O'Korn and Speights, combined for 5 TD's and 8 INT's, while Peters has passed for 4 TD's and 0 INT's on 37-64 passes at 7.6 yards per attempt, much better than the previously mentioned Michigan QB's. While the sample size is relatively small, one would be encouraged that Peters may be more than what the Wolverines have had much of the season. Michigan isn't likely to get to the 32ppg they have averaged in their previous 8 wins, but they are likely to get in the 20s, and I have a lot of reservations regarding the very pedestrian offense of South Carolina, to score much at all here. The Gamecocks also have kicking issues, with 2 kickers combing to go 12/25 on FG attempts, and if they miss out on 3 points here, it will add to their scoring woes. Michigan in this one.

The Miami Florida Hurricanes have their Bowl game at home, but despite of that they are posted as an under dog. The Canes have won 9 straight here, and have been posted as a home dog just 29 times since 1980, and have been 2-10 to the under since 2000. The Canes always play tough on defense at home. No team is even close to what they have done on home turf allowing an amazingly stingy 15.1ppg in their last 240 home games. WOW! Better than that, the Canes have not allowed any opponent to score more than 30 points here in 15 straight games, and that team was down 38-16 with 11 minutes left. Wisconsin has been amazing defensively themselves, as the Badgers allowed 2 teams to score more than 17 against them this year. Only the ultra elite offense of Ohio St. scored 27, no one else more than 24. Last year Ohio St. got 30, no one else more than 20, and in 2015 Alabama scored 35, no one else more than 24. They have allowed 14.2ppg over their last 40 contests, and are 10-4 to the under in their last 14 to a total of 45 or less. Make the play on the under.

We are beginning to learn that the Pac-12 is not as good as people expected. They are 1-6 SU so far, and as I am writing this at halftime, USC is getting manhandled by Ohio St. The Big-10 is 4-0 so far, and Ohio St. has a big lead at the half, so likely 5-0. Penn St. is 4 points from perfect on the season, suffering a 1 point loss to Ohio St., and a 3 point loss to Michigan St. They are the closest P5 team to having a perfect season, missing by 4 points. What that means is this team has been consistent all season. Washington lost just 2 games, but did not have to face USC, and their out of conference schedule was weak. The Pac-12 is obviously over-rated, and I will ride with Penn St. who is 11-2 ATS since 1980 in Bowl games from +1 to any size favorite. 

Memphis averaged 47.7ppg on the season. They were one of the most dominating and potent offenses in the FBS. I`m not so sure of that. The AAC had no team with much of a defense at all. Including Memphis, the AAC had 5 teams that averaged #121 or worse in yards allowed per game, and Memphis played all of the other 4. Additionally Memphis went against UCL! #123, and UL Monroe #129, and S. Illinois, an FCS team. If you add S. Illinois to the list of opponents, the Tigers offense out of 130 FBS teams faced:

#130
#129
#128
#127
#123
#122
Plus S. Illinois of the FCS

That is most of their schedule against the 7 worst defenses in the country! They also faced #100 Tulane, #94 C. Fla (2), #95 Cincinnati, and #89 Houston. There isn`t a team in that mix above top 2/3 of all teams. Iowa St. is very familiar with big offenses in the Big-12, and despite of that, finished ranked #45. This will by far be the toughest test for Memphis yet, not even close, and they may have some issues with a resistance they have not seen all year. Iowa St. has had the upset mind all season, may add another here. Make the play on Iowa St.

Lost in the Louisville disappointing season was the fact that Lamar Jackson had a better season than last year when he won the Heisman Trophy. What Louisville could not overcome was a horrific defense that allowed 27.1ppg. Louisville was at one time just 5-4 before closing the season with 3 straight wins and covers, but against much lesser opponents than they will face today. Louisville did not beat a single opponent that finished the season with 8 or more wins. The defense was not only bad, they will not have the services of their top 2 defenders in DB Jaire Alexander, and pass rusher James Hearn. This just further weakens an already bad defense. Freshman Kaytaon Thompson did a decent job in relief after Fitzgerald was injured vs Ole Miss, and he has had 5 weeks taking all the snaps, and is said to look very good. He is also a runner, and I don't think the Miss St. offense is going to suffer a decline, especially with a poor Louisville defense. Miss St. has given up just 31 to Georgia, and Alabama, and I think they could win this game if they hold Louisville to that. Louisville apples to a 29-70 ATS Bowl system based in part by their 3 straight ATS wins coming into their Bowl game. Make the play on Miss St.

The Cotton Bowl will host the biggest Bowl of the season thus far as 11-2 Ohio St. squares off with 11-2 USC. Ohio St. is equal to both Alabama, and Georgia from the line of scrimmage this season. All 3 teams are +2.9 yards per play better than the average of all their opponents. USC is not even close. What kept Ohio St. out of the playoffs is the dud they threw up at Iowa. USC may have been in the conversation, if they did not throw up a dud at Notre Dame. While Ohio St. has a tremendous statistical advantage here, they have made costly mistakes, that have held them down. Against Oklahoma, Penn St., Iowa, Mich St., and Wisconsin they out-gained the 5 toughest opponents by 6.4 to 5 yards per play. If you take out the Iowa debacle, it is significantly more than that. I can't justify not playing them here with such a decided advantage in the trenches. USC has the offense to score some her, but their defense is simply not equipped to stop Ohio St. Sam Darnold seems to be back in control, but he has not hurt anyone with his legs this year, as he did a year ago. J.T. Barrett has 9000+ passing yards, and 3000+ rushing yards, and a boatload of experience. Urban Meyer in playoff games, championship games, and Bowl games is 14-5 ATS, including 11-2 ATS when his team is better than .750 but less than unbeaten. The only 2 failed covers have come vs Clemson, 11-0 ATS vs anyone else. Make the play on Ohio St.

The 7-5 Kentucky Wildcats will take on the surging 9-3 Northwestern Wildcats in the Music City Bowl in Nashville,TN. Kentucky with an 8th win could match the most wins by any Kentucky team since at least 1979. Nashville is just 3 hours from campus, and the previous 4 times they have played here, it was a sellout, they will have huge fan support. Northwestern has been on fire, winning and covering 7 straight games, but that just fuels line value on the other side. Teams that have covered 4 straight or more heading into their Bowl game, are just 58-90 ATS, and Northwestern falls into a 3-23 ATS subset of this situation, winning just 6 of the 26 outright! Make the play on Kentucky.

The Arizona St. Sun Devils at 7-5 on the season will take on the 8-4 NC State Wolf Pack in the Sun Bol in El Paso,TX. Should be perfect football weather with a game time temperature expected around 68 with a light breeze. The Wolf pack has a high ceiling to their 'A" game, beating Louisville, and scoring 31 vs Clemson, generating nearly 500 yards, holding a lead late into the 3rd quarter. NC State has become QB-U, as the Pack has 4 QB's in the NFL, and if Jr. Ryan Finley declares for the draft, they will soon have 5. The Sun Devils have struggled offensively vs the better defenses on their schedule, as vs Stanford, USC, SD St., Utah, an Washington they averaged just 20.4ppg, and close to 40ppg vs everyone else. NC State is an above average defense, and would expect them to hold the Sun Devils below their season average, while NC State scores above theirs. NC State also fits a 120-69 ATS Bowl situation here. Make the play on NC State.

Wake Forest has won 7 games or more now, each of the past 2 seasons for the first time in 8 years. They own wins vs Louisville and NC State this season. The offense is as good as we have seen here in years averaging 33.6ppg. Texas A&M comes in at 7-5 lacking a signature win on the season, beating Nichols St., LA Lafayette, Arkansas, SC, Florida, N. Mexico, and Ole Miss, and was over-matched vs every good team on their schedule. despite only having 4 road games all season. The Aggies allowed 40+ in 4 games on the season. Wake Forest will have the crowd behind them here, as they will be playing just a 90 minute drive from campus. A&M in the midst of a coaching change, and it will be a challenge getting this team motivated. A&M is in a poor 94-128 ATS Bowl situation as well. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Luke Falk has been one of the best college QB's in history. The numbers this season are not nearly as good as what they have been, as yards per attempt is down, TD passes down, and INT's are up. Perhaps most revealing is the breakdown. Falk dominated the poor teams on the schedule, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon St. and Montana St. In those 6 games he threw 20 TDs and o INT's. Th other 6 games vs Boise St., USC, Arizona, Stanford, Utah, Washington he threw 10 TDs to 13 INT's, hardly numbers warranted by a star QB. Michigan St has a very strong defense, and Falk will be missing his 2 top WRs both suspended. Michigan St. held 7 opponents to 14 or less on the season, and should score enough here for the win. Make the play o Michigan St.

There is one hidden factor in this game, and that is the real power of the TCU defense. They got ripped apart by the elite offensive teams they faced this season. The 5 teams they faced that averaged from 34.5ppg to 46.2ppg. averaged 34ppg against them. That being said all 5 of those teams scored below their season average by about a TD per game. The 8 other games they played, not including a shutout vs a FCS team, the Frogs held opponents averaging 18.7 to 34.3ppg to 7.4ppg! Stanford would qualify to be in this group. These teams averaged 20ppg less than their average, and 5 of them scored 7 or less. Make the play on TCU.

The last 13 Bowl teams that came into their Bowl game allowing 30 or more points per game are 0-11-2 ATS. Teams that average over 40 points a game are 72-94-1 ATS as well, and average scoring just 30ppg. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Sometimes you need to watch what you say, or like in a court of law, it can, and will be used against you. Long time Athletic Director at Texas, now special assistant to the President, said the following:

" Our bad years are not that bad, take a school like Missouri, our bad years, are better than their good years."

Bowls are in large part about motivation, and you can be sure the Tigers are going to be bringing a little extra to this contest. This is a changed Missouri team, one that started 0-5 vs FBS schools and ended 6-0. The 6 game streak saw them go from getting outscored 42-18 to finishing the last 6 out-scoring opponents 52-21. It is the biggest such turn around in NCAA Football history, 1st half of the season to 2nd. That equals 55 ppg. WOW! Texas has a good defense, but looking back at Missouri's game with Gorgia, before they got hot they put 28 on Georgia, who is much better than Texas defensively. The Tigers have won and covered 3 straight Bowls. Texas is 9-18 ATS in their last 27 Bowl games (1-5 vs a team with 7 or less wins). This will be just the 4th of those 27 Bowls played prior to 12/28, meaning this is a fringe Bowl for this type of team. SEC favorites of -3.5 or less are 23-8 ATS in Bowls (11-1 ATS last 12). The SEC has dominated the B-12 Conference at 17-4 ATS in Bowl games, and an active 16-1 ATS subset. Make the play on Missouri.

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

Boston College fans should appear in large numbers, as they are just 3 hours away from NY City, at Yankee Stadium. This game is the furthest north played outside of all Bowl games, and whoever runs the ball better is likely going to be the winner. Game time temperature around 20 degrees, with windchill about 10, dropping during the game, and we could see wind chill values at or below 0 before the game is over. BC was a different team once they started to hand the ball off to A.J. Dillon. Through 6 games, BC averaged a paltry 16.3ppg, as Dillon carried 89 times for just 333 yards, at 3.7 per carry, and BC was 2-4. The last 6, Dillon carried 179 times for 1091 yards at 6.1 yards per tote, and BC scored 36ppg, going 5-1. Despite the running heroics, it helped BC keep balanced, as it opened up the passing game, and they finished with 23 rushing TD's and 24 passing TD's. The BC offensive line is the best unit on the field. They allowed just 13 sacks, and were penalized just 11 times all season, and that is the difference maker. Iowa finished 11th in the B-10 rushing, not a good sign for this type a game. Kirk Ferentz has been around a long time, but he has lost 5 straight Bowl games by 7,17,17,27 and 29 points, so he seems to use them more for looking ahead to the next season instead of winning. The ACC is 41-24-3 ATS in Bowl games from -1.5 to +5 including 27-11-1 ATS vs P5 opponents. Make the play on BC.

The Florida St. Seminoles were supposed to be in the running for a National Championship. How things have changed. The Seminoles lost QB DeAndre Francois in game 1, suffered through a myriad of injuries, and now have lost their coach as well, and at 6-6, on the line is their 40th consecutive winning season. It took wins vs LA Monroe, and Delaware St. to secure a Bowl bid. The Noles have beaten just 1 other team  by a margin big enough to cover this one. Slorida St. is 19-6 ATS in their Bowl game if favored by less than -7, and 4-5-1 ATS otherwise, and tends to under-achieve as a big favorite. Southern Miss represents themselves well here, as this is their 21st Bowl game since 1980, and lost just 1 by 17 points, all others covered this number. C-USA Bowl dogs of +7 or more are 15-7 ATS as well. Florida St. in a 1-19 ATS situation here. Make the play on Southern Miss.

Duke Coach David Cutliffe has done a remarkable job at Duke. he has coached in 9 Bowl games (some at Ole Miss), and his team's have been a well prepared 7-2 ATS. N. Illinois has limited offense, and are not a good come from behind team. Duke started the season at 4-0, but lost 6 straight, and rebounded with a pair of wins in their last 2 games to finish 6-6 at get here. The MAC Conference has laid an egg vs P5 teams in a Bowl game (including the Big East), when getting less than +7. The MAC in this spot is 0-10 ATS and failing to cover by 10ppg. make the play on Duke.

West Virginia's offense has been led by Will Grier, and has been ruled out of the Mountaineers Bowl game vs Utah. More bad news is top RB Justin Crawford will sit out as well. There is big drop off on the W. Virginia offense as Grier threw 388 times, and Crawford ran 191 times, and Grier had 63 runs as well. Those numbers account for nearly all the WVU snaps this season. Utah is not a good offensive team, but the defense is very good. Big-12 Bowl teams from X-Mas to New year's eve  are 27-13 to the under as well. make the play on the under in this one.

A Bowl team coming off a prolific offensive game heading into their Bowl game have been awful teams to bet on. The Appalachian St. Mountaineers put up 63 in their final regular season game. Bowl teams that scored 60 or more in their last game, are 13-30 ATS in their Bowl game, including 0-13 ATS most recently. make the play on Toledo.

The Army is 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 games played in Texas, and will be looking for the big sweep this season. They have won the Commander and Chief trophy for the first time since 1996, beat Navy, and the hat-trick would be to win their Bowl Game. Military teams are tough to prepare for running the flex-bone, and in a Bowl game that seems to be doubled-down, as Military schools are 30-14 ATS in Bowls since 1980, as well as 19-3 ATS when facing a team better than .600. Make the play on Army.

Bowl teams that enter their Bowl game with 2 losses, and one of those losses was in their last game, often get mistaken for a disappointed team. After all, a 1 loss team would likely be playing in a major Bowl, and having lost their last game, the Bowl is obviously much less. That has not been the case, as all Bowl teams with 2 losses, with one of those losses occurring in their last game, and facing an opponent off a win are 17-1-1 ATS. Make the play on S. Florida.

The Wyoming Cowboys have an NFL caliber QB in Josh Allen. The problem is he is protected by a poor offensive line, a poor running game, and he has not played since Nov. 11th due to a shoulder injury. he has been upgraded to probable. His numbers have suffered this season and his 6.6 yards per attempt and 56% completion percentage is down from 8.6 a year ago, and his replacement Nic Smith is at 54% and 6.4, not much difference. The Cowboys win on defense. They have allowed 12.6ppg in their last 5, and are now 12-1-1 to the under in their last 14. C. Michigan scored big against bad defenses, and were limited vs good defenses, and look for that to continue here. Mountain West Bowl teams are 36-19 to the under when the total is less than 58, as well as being 21-4 to the under when posted as a -7 or less favorite. Make the play on the under.

There is probably no better story in NCAAF this season than UAB. The Blazers put an end to their football program after the 2014 season, but started it up again this season. They were projected for 2.5 wins, and finished with 8. This team has over-achieved all season, and have a chance to win the school's first Bowl game. The Blazers come in owning 4 SU wins as a dog of an average of +8 points per game. Ohio, U. is a well coached team under Frank Solich, but he has not had much success in Bowl games, at just 2-8 SU in his last 10, dropping 3 of 5 SU as a favorite. The Bobcats dropped their last 2 games of the season after upseting Toledo, ad will have a chore filling holes in their defensive line, as 3 starters are out. They will also be missing their top RB in A.J. Ouellette, who has been downgraded to doubtful. Make the play on UAB.

ST.PETERSBURG BOWL - Tropicana Field - St.Petersburg, FL

The Temple Owls will take on the Florida International Panthers tonight in the St. Petersburg Bowl. I'm not sure what Temple has done this season to have them posted as a TD favorite, or what Florida International hasn't done. Temple barely made it here at 6-6, and their 6 wins came at the hands of opponents that combined to finish the season with 19 total wins. Translation: No wins vs a winning team. Temple changed QB's to better results, but deceptive at the same time because they beat no one of significance. Florida International is in Miami, or about 250 miles from St. Petersburg, so this will be a defacto home game for the Panthers as well. The Panthers were 8-4 on the season, and have a much better QB, and with 19 seiors on this team, they will be playing hard. Temple is off a couple of big seasons, and playing FIU in a Bowl game is not exactly motivational. last night we watched a C-USA team beat a pretty good AAC team 52-10. Since the AAC was formed, its teams that made a Bowl game are 7-16 SU/9-14 ATS, and 0-5 SU vs C-USA. AAC Bowl teams with 8 wins or less are 1-8 SU in Bowl games, 3-6 ATS. FIU fits a Bowl situation that is 55-25 ATS here as well. Make the play on FIU.

The 1st ever DXL Frisco Bowl will put the 7-5 LA Tech Bull Dogs vs the SMU Mustangs. This is an interesting match up, simply because newly hired SMU Head Coach Sonny Dykes was the coach at LA Tech from 2010-12, before taking the job at Cal. Dykes was hired just 9 days ago, and will coach this game, so his `air raid` offense may add a few wrinkles to the SMU attack, but for the most part left-over assistants will be doing most of the play calling. Most gamblers prefer the over, but do get a bit edgy when the number exceeds 70, as it seems like such a high mountain to climb. The fact is Bowl totals of greater than 66 have gone 31-13 O/U (23-8 O/U in December Bowls) since 2010, and with a Bowl favorite of -7.5 or less we get 23-6 O/U. (17-4 O/U in December Bowls). The 2009 cut-off is not arbitrary, it is the point in time, when NCAA Football scoring was taking off. The period from 2006-09 saw the average NCAAF game have a posted total of 51.9, and since then, 56.1. This has allowed high totals have a better chance of connecting. SMU averaged 40.2ppg this year, but allowed 35.5ppg, and playing games vs a defense allowing greater than 25ppg, their games combined for 79.2ppg. LA Tech averaged 51.5ppg in Dykes last season, and 11 of his last 12 there went over the total. His team averaged 34.1ppg at Cal, with 10 of his last 14 there over the total. His final year at both schools (when he had all his own players), saw the total go 21-5 O/U. LA Tech this season faced 2 teams that averaged 38ppg and allowed an average of 52.5ppg, while their offense against teas that allowed more than 30ppg averaged 32.2ppg. Make te play over the total in this one.

The Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders at 6-6 will take on the 7-4 Arkansas St. Red Wolves in Montgomery, Alabama. Every team looks for a motivational edge in a Bowl game and I think Middle Tennessee may have a score to settle. These teams last faced each other, both members of the Sun Belt Conference, and Arkansas St. beat MTSU 45-0. They have a chance for redemption here. teams that were shutout the last time they met their Bowl opponent, and it wasn't the current season, the shutout team is 5-1 ATS winning outright by an average of 8ppg as an average +5 dog. MTSU is under-valued here, as they come in as the only C-USA team to have played 3 power-5 conference opponents, giving them a significant strength of schedule advantage, and upset Syracuse. This is a team that saw their highly sought QB miss 6 games, a talented WR missing significant time, and overall lost 125 player games to injury. They had just 4 players play and start every game. The rest is significant, as they will have just 3 players on the injury report. Another major edge is having played their last 2 Bowl games in Hawaii, and Bahamas, they get this one just 300 miles from campus and should have a crowd edge. They also have a significant situational edge here for this one. Bowl teams, .500 or worse, facing a team better than .500 as a dog from +2 to +10.5 in a December Bowl are 33-8 ATS, and on a recent tear, having gone 18-3 ATS in their last 21. Generally speaking a Bowl team with 6 wins, has the added incentive to use the Bowl game to complete the season with a winning record, and when facing a team with more than 6 wins, they are 68-42 ATS. It also assures their opponent isn't very excited to play a 6-6 team. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders at 6-6 will take on the 7-4 Arkansas St. Red Wolves in Montgomery, Alabama. Every team looks for a motivational edge in a Bowl game and I think Middle Tennessee may have a score to settle. These teams last faced each other, both members of the Sun Belt Conference, and Arkansas St. beat MTSU 45-0. They have a chance for redemption here. teams that were shutout the last time they met their Bowl opponent, and it wasn`t the current season, the shutout team is 5-1 ATS winning outright by an average of 8ppg as an average 5 dog. MTSU is under-valued here, as they come in as the only C-USA team to have played 3 power-5 conference opponents, giving them a significant strength of schedule advantage, and upset Syracuse. This is a team that saw their highly sought QB miss 6 games, a talented WR missing significant time, and overall lost 125 player games to injury. They had just 4 players play and start every game. The rest is significant, as they will have just 3 players on the injury report. Another major edge is having played their last 2 Bowl games in Hawaii, and Bahamas, they get this one just 300 miles from campus and should have a crowd edge. They also have a significant situational edge here for this one. Bowl teams, .500 or worse, facing a team better than .500 as a dog from 2 to 10.5 in a December Bowl are 33-8 ATS, and on a recent tear, having gone 18-3 ATS in their last 21. Generally speaking a Bowl team with 6 wins, has the added incentive to use the Bowl game to complete the season with a winning record, and when facing a team with more than 6 wins, they are 68-42 ATS. It also assures their opponent isn`t very excited to play a 6-6 team. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The 10-2 Troy Trojans will take on the 9-4 N. Texas Mean Green in New Orleans. troy is getting a lot of support, ass they had one of the biggest upsets of the year, when they went don to baton Rouge, and beat LSU 24-21. Troy has had their best team's in their FBS history over the last 2 years, combining for a 20-5 SU record. The offense remains explosive, but not quite up to the standard set a year ago, but still 30ppg. Where this team has excelled is on defense where they have not allowed any team to top 25 points against them the only team in the country to have done that this season. N. Texas may look like a defensive slouch on the season allowing 33.8ppg, but their 4 losses, all to teams they were huge under dogs against, FAU (2), SMU, and Iowa, they allowed 48.8ppg against. Their other more competitive games saw them allow a more respectable 24.3ppg. North Texas will play this game without star running back Jeffrey Wilson, while Troy's win over Arkansas St. in the Conference Title game saw them lose 6 players, and 3 of them are WR's. Overall, C-USA totals have been big money in Bowl games, to the under, when the total is less than 64, where they are 3-22 O/U since 1998. Make the play on the under.

This is one of my favorite games of the year. I love the tradition, and make a point to watch it every year. The Army has become a lot more competitive the last few years. 

Here is an eye opener since 1980:

When Army comes in averaging less than 24.7ppg    5-15 ATS including 1-13 ATS as long as they are not a dog of more than 14 points

When Army comes in averaging more than 24.7ppg   10-6 ATS including 8-1 if competitive game from -6 to +7

Additionally, the team with more rest than their opponent is 8-2 ATS last 10. Make the play on Army.

This series has seen the last 11 meetings play under the total. That has become well publicized, and this game opened at a fair price of 52. The public immediately bet this total down to 48, and as the game approached, and snow become the operative word in the forecast, this game has continued to plummet, and is down to 44 as of this writing and may drop more prior to the start of the game. The snow does not impact these teams, nor are snow games generally lower scoring. They both run the ball on almost every play, and the kicking game is going to have little impact as neither team kicks many FG's. The value pendulum is now flipped to the over as we have 8 points and counting from the opener of value. Make the play on the over.

The MAC Championship game will be a complete mismatch as Akron takes on Toledo. Akron, from my records will be the worst team to ever make a conference championship game. The Zips posted just a 7-5 mark on the season, and are below average on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They don't have a RB that has gained even as much as 350 yards on the season, and their QB Thomas Woodson has not played in 3 games due to a suspension, but will be available. Toledo raced off to a 21-0 1st quarter lead in the first meeting this season, and won't take their foot off the gas in a Championship game. Championship mismatches are few, but when they have occurred, it has been utter devastation. A team favored in a Championship game by 21 points are more, being played at a neutral site are 5-0 SU/ATS winning by an average score of 49-6, and covering by 17.6ppg. Lay the bundle and make the play on Toledo.

This is a weather play on the UNDER.

This is a huge rivalry game, and a lot will be on the line for Clemson, who currently is in position to make another National Championship run. Dabo Swinney will seek his 100th win in Columbia in this game. Swinney's teams have lost just 29 total games, but 5 of those have come at the hands of the Gamecocks. Last year the Tigers mauled SC 56-7 so there is a huge payback on the line here. Clemson has not won at SC by more than 5 points since 2003, and are 0-5 ATS here in the last 5 meetings. This game fits a situation that is 55-14 ATS as well. Make the play on South Carolina.

The Iron Bowl is always a thrilling intense football teams that hate each other and do everything they have to do to come away with a win in this game. Coach Saban has never beaten an Auburn team with 9 or more wins, as he is 0-3 at Alabama, and was 0-3 at LSU, and 0-6 overall. The Tide are a great football team, but have really had an easy schedule to this point, and the tough teams they have played have stayed in the game with them home or away. Alabama is really banged up, and now thin at linebacker, and Auburn is going to deliver a punishing running game. Both these teams have elite defenses, but I think right now the Tide is vulnerable. Auburn beat then #1 Georgia easily, and has a chance to beat a #1 again. They will also get another shot at Georgia if they win here in the SEC Championship game. If they win out, they will be in with the resume they have put together, and I think they get the 2nd leg done in this one. Auburn fits a 73-31 ATS situation for this one as well, make the play on Auburn.

Central Connecticut St. has suspended their QB and key offensive lineman for today's FCS playoff game vs New Hampshire.

New Hampshire   -10   -110

The Missouri Tigers have reaslly struggled the past year or so, and opened the season with low expectations got off to a poor start and things were looking dark early. Then the light suddenly came on for this team which seems to show improvement every week. The Tigers have won 5 straight and are already Bowl eligible. Arkansas has had a tough season and at 4-7 there will be no Bowl, and not a whole lot to play for. I would not be surprised to see some young players getting a look here. Missouri isn't just winning they are destroying everything in their path, and the 5 straight wins have been by 177 points or 35.4ppg. Gonna ride this cash cow until someone slows them down. Make the play on Missouri.

The Naval Academy does a lot of recruiting in Texas, and whenever they come here, they tend to play above their level. The Navy is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 trips to Texas. Navy is also the best road dog in the country where they are 83-39-3 ATS in their last 125 games. Navy seldom gets blown out, as they have lost just 7 games over the last 5 years by more than 10 points, none this year despite battling South Florida, Memphis, and Notre Dame. Houston defense has been leaking oil allowing 474 yards a game in their last 6, and no less than 416 to anyone. Navy in this one.

The Egg Bowl will be played on Thanksgiving, as these hated in-state rivals will go at it once again. Last year Ole Miss suffered a totally humiliating defeat at home 55-20, so there will be a pretty significant revenge motive at work here. Secondly, Ole Miss is not eligible for a Bowl game this year even if they qualify, so this is their Bowl game. Ole Miss holds a 4-1 ATS mark in this series as a road dog. Ole Miss is also 11-4-1 ATS in this series with revenge, including 7-1 ATS when Mississippi has been a .700 team or better. Make the play on Ole Miss.

There were little expectations for the Missouri Tigers coming into this season. The Tigers managed just 4 wins a year ago, off a season where they had just 5 wins. The Tigers opened the season with 5 straight losses vs FBS opponents. They were out-scored in the 5 games 210-92. They have since turned things around, as the Tigers have won 4 straight, and have out-scored those 4 opponents by 215-66. While they have not proven they can stand up to the top of the conference, they certainly have stood out vs the middle and bottom. Vanderbilt owns just 3 winning seasons since 1982, and this will be their 4th straight losing season. Vandy is 0-6 in conference games where they have been out-scored 277-121, and allowing 46.2ppg. The Tigers have out-gained their last 4 opponents 2355-1266, and are on a roll. Vanderbilt fits into a 5-31 ATS situation, and several other indicators point to Missouri. My November NCAAFB GAME OF THE MONTH is on Missouri.

I wait for these games to come up every year. The Army recruits heavily in Texas, and currently has 23 rostered players from Texas. Coaches have even said that this is the most competitive practice week of the season. It is because players fight to make the travel team, for a lot of them it is a trip home, one that does not come often. There will be a lot of family and friends at the game. The results speak for themselves as Army is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 trips to Texas. Make the play on Army.

This game fits a situation that is 41-14 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 113-67 ATS, and the play is on Alabama.

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS, and the play is on Oklahoma St.

It would be easy to dismiss this UConn team after Missouri pasted them at home 52-12. The game wasn't even that clsoe, as the Tigers called off the dogs with the bulk of the 3rd quarter still remaining. Dial it back a bit further, and the Huskies dropped a 70-31 debacle vs Memphis as well. They now have to try to stand in against Quinton Flowers and the 7-1 S. Florida Bulls. The perception is, the Bulls are better than both Memphis, and Missouri, so how is UConn going to stay in this game? It is all about perception, and match ups, and this is a more favorable match up for UConn. The Bulls first of all are 7-1, and have beaten teams with a combined record of 13-36 and throw in an FCS win as well. While they tend to score a lot of points, the offense actually grades out negative, generating 5.7 yards per play vs a schedule of opponents that allow 5.9. This team likes to grind it out, and they will put it on the ground 60+ times a game. UConn has faced a similar offense in Tulsa. Tulsa had a trio of RB's that have generated over 2.000 yards and 26 TD's and held them to 194 on 44 carries. S. Florida ill be feeding Tice, Johnson, and QB Flowers on keepers, who have almost combined numbers similar to Tulsa. Beating UConn on the ground is not as easy as through the air, as Tulsa found out. Flowers is not an accurate throwing QB, as he completes just 53%, just like the Tulsa duo, President, and Skipper who complete 55%. S. Florida has beaten an easy schedule of opponents for 3 reasons. They run them into the ground, they win the turnover battle (7 games with a turnover edge, and 1 even), and run a lot more plays. The defense is above average, but their schedule of opponents average a woeful 6.3 yards per attempt in the air. UConn's QB Bryant Shirreffs may not be the best QB in the FBS, but has generated 9.1 yards per attempt, by far the best air attack the Bulls have seen all season. The Bulls have beaten 6 FBS teams, and the 6 teams they have faced have thrown 56 INT's on the season, Shirreffs has thrown 4. While it won't be freezing cold, it will be in the low 50s and drop into the 40s in the 2nd half, and living in Florida this early in the season, that will be the coldest weather this team has experienced since May of this year. Many will expect South Florida to come in loaded for bear off their first loss, but history dictates otherwise. A team that was 5-0 or better and lost their 1st game last time out by 14 or less points, and are now facing a team better than .250 and worse than .667 are 39-82 ATS! Line is way off here, make the play on Uconn.

This game fits a situation that is 177-102 ATS, and the play is on Northwestern.

This game fits a situation that is 101-66 ATS, and the play is on Iowa St.

This game fits a situation that is 88-57 ATS, and the play is on Stanford.

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 51-16 ATS, and the play is on Vanderbilt.

Weekday totals (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday historically play well under the total, in fact they are 228-308-11 O/U over the last decade. Make the play on the under.

Weekday totals (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday historically play well under the total, in fact they are 228-308-11 O/U over the last decade. Make the play on the under.

Many were surprised that Lane Kiffin took the Florida Atlantic job. He has the Owls at 4-3, and the offense has been clicking on all cylinders, and produced a season high 69 points in their last game at home vs North Texas. The owls generated over 800 total yards of offense in that win. The problem side of the ball for this team is a defense that has allowed 31ppg on the season vs FCS opponents, and a road record of 1-2 on the season. The Hilltoppers have been given expectations beyond their means after a couple of very strong seasons, but at 5-2, they have shown signs of improvement with each game, and have now won 4 straight, and for the 1st time this season will be in the role of an under dog. Statistically, FAU brings in much better numbers to this game, along with a much tougher schedule. This is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and W. Kentucky is 18-2 SU here in their last 20 games, losing by a single point in both loses. They are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a home dog, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6, winning 5 of those outright. Owls never good in this role, and are 2-7-1 ATS as a road chalk. Hill Toppers apply to a 77-40 ATS situation as well. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

: After completing the past 12 seasons with a .500 record or better, the BYU Cougars are enduring what possibly may turn out as their worst season ever. The Cougars enter play at home with a woeful 1-7 record on the season, and stand at 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They will have their best chance of getting their first win this season against an FBS team against San Jose St. Like the Cougars, the Spartans are winless vs FBS competition this season. Biggest problem for San Jose is turnovers, as the Spartans average 3.5 turnovers a game vs FBS schools. BYU has played a much tougher schedule overall, and when there has been a battle of a pair of 1 win teams from game 8 out, the home team is 37-16 ATS, and I have a subset of that which is 18-2 ATS, make the play on BYU.

The Florida St. Seminoles last had a losing season back in 1976, over 40 years ago. They enter this game against Boston College at 2-4 on the season. this is step up time for the Noles, who have endured a lot of injuries this season, but have a deep talented roster. Are they really a pick-em team against BC, subtracting out 3 for home field advantage? The Noles have by far played the toughest schedule in the country, with no opponent under .500, with the 4 losses coming to teams that are a combined 24-4 on the season. Taking a look at those 4 opponents, the Noles actually were the better team from the line of scrimmage, 6.92 to 6.54. It was a negative turnover margin totaling -7 in the 4 games, and a negative turnover margin in all 4. Don't get me wrong, this BC team is much better than the previous few years, and have played a tough schedule of their own. The difference is, their toughest 4 games vs Clemson, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Notre Dame, show them out-gained 6.84 yards a play to 5.06. Much different than Florida St. The Noles are the better team on both sides of the ball, and in every facet. BC even had a +1 turnover edge in the 4 games mentioned above. This is not close, make the play on Florida St.

Other than a period from the 2006 season through the 2009 season, Toledo has been .500 or better in all but 1 season since 1990. This has been the most stable program in the MAC, and one that has generated 9 wins in 5 of the last 6 seasons, and at 6-1 they sure look like they will add another. The Rockets have blasted conference opponents to the tune of a 47-12 SU record since 2010, covering 60% of the time along the way. The Rockets are 123-92-6 ATS in conference games all-time. (14-5 ATS from -21 to -30). Ball St. has lost 7 of their last 30 games by an average margin of 40ppg, so this team has played some ugly games recently. They have bigger problems in this game with RB James Gilbert, and QB Riley Neal, both out. Reserve QB Jack Milas is also nursing an injured elbow. Milas is probable, but his 4.9 yd. avg. per attempt is way below average, and he has thrown 0 TD`s to 6 INT`s on the season. The Cards are also without a pair of WR`s for this game, and they have generated a grand total of 15 points in their last 3 games. Toledo fits an 84-37 ATS situation for the icing on the cake, Make the play on Toledo.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Wyoming.

This game fits a situation that is 75-49 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Michigan.

The Oklahoma Sooners will take on Kansas St. on the road. The Sooners have the best passing attack in the country, at 12.5 yards per attempt, and while Bill Snyder has worked some magic at home as the coach of Kansas St., those numbers have not held up vs ranked opponents. Kansas St. has a good run defense, but have been marginal vs the pass, and this Sooner aerial attack is by far the best they will have seen this season. Kansas St. has another issues, as QB Jesse Ertz will be out again, and he is the Kansas St. offense. Ertz duel threat ability led to a passing attack that was generating 9.3 yards an attempt, and Ertz is by far the best runner on the team. Alex Delton has completed 38% of his 34 passes at 5.2 yards per attempt. Dalton can run some, but not the same threat as Ertz. Oklahoma big in this one.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Illinois.

This game fits a situation that is 75-49 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 77-51 ATS, and the play is on Indiana.

The Ball St. Cardinals has seen their offense diminish considerably in the absence of starting QB Riley Neal. He has been replaced by 5th year senior Jack Milas. Milas was decent in his freshman year throwing 9 TD's to 5 INT's at 6.2 yards per attempt, but he has since regressed, lost his job, and has been pretty bad since. Milas since the start of his sophomore year has averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, with just 2 TD's and 11 INT's (0 TD's and 6 INT's this year. His last 2 games have seen the Cardinal's offense produce 6 points on 3.77 yards per play. C. Michigan has generated 15ppg in their last 5, playing under the total in all 5 games. This game fits a situation that is 57-124 O/U. I will make the play on the under in this one.

: It is still a bit of a secret how much impact Jeff Brohm has had at Purdue in his first year. he had an immediate impact in his first job at W. Kentucky, where in 3 years his team averaged 10 wins a season. His teams averaged 44.7ppg during his 3 year tenure. Purdue has not won more than 3 games in any of their last 4 seasons, Brohm has them at 3 wins through 6 games, and a big win vs Minnesota. Purdue has been 3-30 in Big-10 play over the last 4 years. The Boilermakers have been out-scored by 18ppg in conference play over the period, and just 4ppg this season, despite facing Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Rutgers has a long way to go to get to where Purdue is right now. The Scarlet Knights have been buried by the top teams in the conference, and Purdue has been very respectful in all games. Purdue is positive from the line of scrimmage on defense, as well as offense, and has a huge advantage in this one on both sides of the ball. If you look at the 3 expected competitive games on the Purdue schedule, where they were favored by 6 or less, or a dog of 6 or less, they have out-gained those 3 opponents by 6.82 yards a play vs allowing 4.33 yards per play, and have gotten off an average of 8 more plays per game on top of that. Rutgers won at Illinois last week, despite being out-gained, and were also out-gained as a -6 point favorite vs E. Michigan, in a loss at home. Make the play on Rutgers.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Temple.

When you think of W. Kentucky, you think one thing, offense. That was true under Jeff Brohm, as his team averaged 44.7ppg in his 3 year tenure. Those numbers are gone, and W. Kentucky is averaging a pedestrian 25.5ppg this season, as Brohm has moved on to Purdue. Old Dominion is trying to find their way in the FBS, and the offense has really struggled this season. The Monarchs have produced just 16.2ppg against FBS opponents on the season, and turnovers have also been stinking them, as they have averaged 2 per contest. W. Kentucky has allowed 18.8ppg on the season, with no team topping 23 against them on the season. This game also fits a situation that is 57-124 O/U, and my play in this game is on the under.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers once sat atop of the college football world. Going to Lincoln was a death sentence, and National Title aspirations were part of every season. Just going back to 1980 they won 9+ game every year until 202, won 11+ games 10 times, and were 133-10 at home. They have since lost 27 at home, and never have won 11 games, and finished .500 or worse 4 times, and a loss here to Ohio St. would make them 3-4. Ohio St. looks a lot like those old Nebraska teams in the win/loss column as the Buckeyes are 66-7 under Urbam Meyere. The numbers for this Buckeye team are scary elite on both sides of the ball. They generate 7.4 yards per play vs an average defense played that allows 5.6. Defensively, they allow just 4.2 yards a play to a team that averages 6.1. That makes this team nearly 4 yards per every play against the opponents averages they have faced. Nebraska is a slightly better than average team from the line of scrimmage, but will be at a disadvantage every play in this game on either side. Urbam Meyer is 11-3 ATS at Ohio St. vs a line of -21.5 to -31, 26-13 ATS in his coaching career. A team that has allowed 14 or less points in 2 straight games, facing a team that allowed 37+ in their last game is 47-16 ATS as a road favorite. Meyer's teams are also 68-37 ATS following an ATS win in his coaching career. nebraska was out-gained at home by Arkansas St. winning by just 7, only beat Rutgers here by 10, and snuck past N. Illinois by 4, and were blown out by Wisconsin. Tre Bryant has been the best RB for Nebraska, and he has been downgraded to doubtful for this game. Tanner lee, the Nebraska QB, has already been picked off 10 times this season, and the Ohio St. secondary is the best he will have seen this season. Oklahoma's loss, opens the door for the Buckeyes who should be ready to make a big statement in Lincoln. Make the play on Ohio St.

You have to feel for Maryland, as they have had the injury bug at the QB position as an ongoing issue. This year it may be at its worst. They lost Tyrell Pigone to a torn ACL, who completed 9-12 passes at 14.6 yards per attempt, 2 TDs 1 INT. They lost Kasim Hill to a torn ACL who was 18-21 throwing for 11 yards per attempt. The 3rd string Maryland QB Max Bortenschlager, was out into the concussion protocol last week, and has yet to be cleared. Bortenschlager is no bargain to begin with completing just 54.5% at a woeful 4.5 yards per attempt with 2 TD's and 3 INT's. If he can't go, then Celeb Henderson is likely to get the nod. Henderson has been around 4 years, starting at North Carolina, before transferring to Maryland. He has thrown exactly 2 passes in 4 years, 0-2. He has injury issues hurting his foot, and then reinjuring it in the spring, so he has not been taking any reps at all, until recently, and may not be even healthy. Northwestern is great against the run, so that does not leave a lot of offensive options for Maryland in this game, as with little threat in the air, the Wildcats can load the box, and be even better against the run. Maryland in big trouble here, make the play on Northwestern, my NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR!

The W. Virginia Mountaineers spent a lot of energy last week in Fort Worth, where they lost to a very good TCU team 31-24. They come home to face a Texas Tech team, that has been better than expected as the Red Raiders are off to a 4-1 start, losing only to Oklahoma St. by 7. The Red Raiders have played 82 points above the line. Texas Tech has been the FBS long term version of the greatest show on turf. They own a stellar 120-82 ATS mark when playing on turf, including 18-5 ATS the last 3 years, and have played well in the role of a road dog of late, covering their last 4. They have often been a team that fades late in the season, but prior to game 8 they own a 96-61-6 ATS mark over the last 20 years, and just 58-65-1 ATS from game 8 on. Morgantown is a tough place to play as indicated by the Mountaineers 145-30-3 SU mark here, but they are just 78-94-6 ATS in those games, often over-priced. That has been especially true as a home favorite vs Big-12 opponents where they are just 5-12 ATS. Texas Tech fits into a huge 72-23 ATS situation this week based in part on teams off at least a pair of spread wins with a competitive line, on the road. Make the play on Texas Tech.

The SEC is and has been considered the best conference in college football. Will Munchamp took over a Florida program with expectations beyond what was possible, had a lot of injuries during his tenure there, and never quite lived up to expectations. He took over a South Carolina program last year, that won just 1 conference game, and took them to a Bowl last year. The Gamecocks are much improved, and already own a big win over NC State, that looks much bigger now. While the offense is pretty ordinary, if they are able to run the ball they tend to win, when they can't they lose. They should be able to run vs a Tennessee team that has allowed 1263 yards on 245 carries this season, with every opponent, including Umass topping the 100 yard mark. While it is true for most teams, if you can't run you don' win, it is especially true for SC under Muschamp, as they are 9-2 gaining 100+ on the ground and 0-7 when they don't. His coaching career shows 100+ on the ground 37-15, less than 100 1-15. The last time Tennessee held a conference opponent to under 100 yards rushing it was November 21, 2015. So a good marker to start with. This game also fits a strong 75-23 ATS situation in favor of South Carolina. Make the play on South Carolina.

Mike Leach coached at Texas Tech for 10 years, and went to 10 Bowl games. He has been at Washington St. now for 6 years, and this will be his 4th Bowl season, although this one might be for a National Championship. His teams are known for prolific passing attacks, and with Heisman candidate Luke Falk at QB, who leads the nation with 19 TD's and just 2 INT's, it may be the best offense he has had. What Leach has this year that he has never had, is a defense which is arguably better than his elite offense. The Cougars defend the run very well, but in the air, they are one of the best in the country, and Cal can't run the ball at all, and will be forced into the back end of the defense which is going to be troublesome. Cal scored just 7 points against another elite defense vs Washington last week, and while they defend the pass well, they have not seen a QB as experienced, and as precision as Falk. Make the play on Washington St.

It is rare to find a program like UT San Antonio, that has assembled a very strong defense in a low level conference. Combine that with a team that has 0 injuries to report at This stage of the season, and you have a dangerous team. UTSA opened some eyes when they went on the road and held Baylor to  10 points and 274 yards of total offense, while neither of their other 2 opponents have reached 200 yards. They have also been potent on offense averaging 47.5ppg against teams not from the P5. Frank Wilson has done a great job here. S. Miss imploded last week at home vs North Texas, owning a 21-7 lead at the half and getting pounded in the 2nd half 36-7, as a better than a TD favorite. This while having won the turnover battle 2-0. Nothing shouts trouble more than those numbers. UTSA is a very balanced offense generating 744 yards on the ground thus far, and 706 in the air, while their opponents have generated a total of 621 yards in 3 games. S. Miss is going to have problems moving the ball, while UTSA has proven they not only can get stops, but beat you with a pretty decent balanced attack on offense. Better than that, UTSA is in a mega situation for this contest, one that has delivered a 100-46 ATS mark. Make the play on Texas San Antonio.

This is the one game other than Navy when it appears on the schedule, it becomes a big deal. Army does a ton of recruiting in Texas. The Black Knights 2017 roster lists 22 players from Texas. Coaches say this is the most spirited and focused week of the season, as players try to work hard to make the travel roster, and see some family and friends that travel to the game. Usually a parent or two will have a big dinner for the players at their house after the game. Needless to say inspired by family and friends, Army and Navy as well are a combined 26-4 ATS when playing in Texas! pretty much sums it up, I make these plays a must everytime they come up. Make the play on Army.

The Florida St. Seminoles opened with Alabama, and lost, but played a very good game, especially defensively. Although they lost, they maintained the mindset they could still run the table, but then the unthinkable occurred, they lost their starting QB for the season. The next game was a home loss to NC State, and that was followed by a close call at Wake Forest. The defense is spending too much time on the field, and the offense is very ordinary. Miami is a multi-dimensional team, one capable of winning the game on either side of the ball. The offense is good enough to score some points here, but the same can't be said for Florida St. against an above average defense. Not only that but the Canes fit a very strong 73-23 ATS situation for this one as well. Make the play on Miami, Fla.

There are a lot of similarities to W. Virginia, and TCU. They both have star QB's who transferred in from major P5 programs, they both have displayed prolific offenses, and both programs have a history of success. Where they are different lies the key to this contest. W. Virginia runs the ball very well, but the TCU run defense has been historically great under Gary Patterson, and is certainly the case this season. The Frogs run the ball with equal ability, but W. Virginia struggles to stop the run as evidenced by Kansas' Khali Herbert rushing for 291 yards against the Mountaineers, Kansas? Moreover, the Mountaineers have struggled on the road vs the uper tier of the Big-12. W. Virginia won 9+ games in their last 7 seasons as a member of the Big east, but just 1 time in 6 years in the Big-12. The main reason is against the upper tier (Kansas St., TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., and Baylor), they are a combined 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS on the road, losing by 20ppg! Last year W. Virginia won 10 games, but once again, the losses came on the road to Oklahoma St by 17, Oklahoma by 28, and in their Bowl game vs Miami by 17. TCU has major revenge here. They lost 34-10 last year in Morgantown, their worst loss ever as a member of the Big-12. Pay back is in order here, make the play on TCU.

Friday October 6th, 2017

  Top Side Play · [308] Connecticut Huskies       +14   -115 (Bovada)
    Fri Oct 6th, 2017 7:00pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Analysis: Many bettors see this one as free money, as Memphis, who already owns a win vs UCLA, takes on Uconn, a team that has beaten just 11 FBS teams in its last 50 games. This game opened at Memphis -16 and has eroded all the way down to -13 at a couple books, despite the fact that the public is backing Memphis at better than 61%. That raises red flags all over, as it simply says the larger bets are coming in on the Huskies, so 38% of the money is much greater than 61% of the money on the Memphis side. History shows, when this is the case, the bigger (often wiser) money is on the low percentage team, in this case Uconn. Huskies have arguably the worst defense in the FBS, but before you give the Tigers a big edge here, they are right near the Huskies at the bottom of the FBS. Huskies air attack generating 9.8 yards per attempt vs opponents surrendering 8.2, but defense allowing 8.7 vs opponents that average 7.3, has given it all back. Huskies don`t get to perform in the national spotlight too often, but have taken advantage of those opportunities, as they are 15-6 SU and 13-8 ATS at home on these weekday affairs. They have played 10 of these contests as a home dog, logging 6 wins to an average line of 10, so plenty capable of pulling off the surprise. remember Memphis beat UL Monroe at home by just 8 points. Monroe has allowed just shy of 40ppg to the likes of Coastal Carolina, LA Lafayette, and So. Miss. They also beat FCS opponent S. Illinois by just 13 at home, allowing them 31 points. For the record S. Illinois lost last week at home to Northern Iowa, and scored just 17 points. Memphis is living off a huge win vs UCLA who was ranked at the time. UCLA is 3-2 now, with a miracle 1 point comeback win vs AM at home, and led Colorado, also at home by 1 point with :30 seconds to go, before adding a late FG. This is a monster sandwich game for Memphis. They just got hammered 40-13 vs C. Florida, and have a revenge game vs Navy next week at home, followed by Houston the week after. That means Memphis s off a game vs an undefeated opponent, and has an unbeaten opponent, with revenge, in their next game, making this a very dangerous spot for the Tigers. This is a season saving opportunity for Uconn, staring down the barrel of 1-4, and with a 3 game late season rough spot taking on BC, C. Florida, and S. Florida for 3 in a row, only a win here would make a win in any of those 3 games significant. This is a `step up` game under the National spotlight for a team, desperately needing a morale booster, and have the right set of circumstances here to make it happen. Make the play on Uco

This game reminds me a whole lot of last weeks game between Clemson and Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech came into the game over-rated, against a formidable opponent at home, as does NC State this week. NC St. is simply a lot like Virginia Tech, they are at this point of the season over-rated. That occurred because they went to Florida St. to face a team that lost the heart of their offense in QB Deandre Francois, and it showed up for the Seminoles again last week, barely sneaking by Wake Forest. Remember, NC State has lost to South Carolina, did not cover vs Marshall or Furman, and failed to cover again vs Syracuse, who played them even from the line of scrimmage. All together NC State has been +0.3 yards better on offense than the schedule of opponents they have faced, and -0.5 worse on defense, that is a net negative from the line of scrimmage. Louisville is better than any of the 5 opponents the Wolf pack has faced this season, and have a Heisman QB that is  duel threat, and a lot of weapons at his disposal. The Cards explosive offense has been +1.5 yards better than their opponents allow, which is elite, and the defense is has been +0.2 for a net from the line of scrimmage of +1.7. Louisville applies to a 84-60-3 ATS situation that plays on great passing teams, those averaging more than 300 yards a game, as road favorites of less than -7, from week 4 on. (7-3 ATS on a Thursday Night). Overall that equates to a 10 point Louisville win, so things will have to go haywire for Louisville not to win and cover here. Make the play on Louisville.

It is getting to the point, that Dabo Swinney has built a program, that rivals that of which Nick Saban has at Alabama. These programs, no longer rebuild anything, they have players in waiting, ready to be stars from game 1. The Tigers are 64-9 since the start of the 2012 season (32-2 lately), and are on even ground with the Tide. There is no weakness on this team, and the defense appears it may be as good as we have seen. That will present problems for Virginia Tech, who has played a soft schedule to this point, and aren't nearly as good as the numbers look, and I think they will get a hug wake up call in this one. Clemson has taken on Auburn, and Louisville already, and have met each challenge. Both those teams, in my opinion are better than V. Tech. Swinney has a tendency to out-scheme good teams, or at least those that allow 17ppg or less, as he is 9-0 ATS when facing them. Virginia Tech is 0-7 ATS after a game where the offense came easy, and produced 525 yards or more.I see a Clemson team that has the advantage in every area on the field, and in every match up, and I think V. tech gets severely exposed here. Make the play on Clemson.

Southern Miss had a very disappointing season a year ago. Everything appeared to be in place to make a run at he C-USA Title, but instead they needed wins in their last 2 games just to make a Bowl game. Expectations this season are much less, as they lose perhaps the best QB in school history. Keon Howard looked to be the guy, but in 2 starts a year ago as a freshman, he threw 4 INT's and completed just 44%. Enter JUCO transfer Kwandra Diggs. Diggs has won the job, getting most of the reps. he has thrown for 8.4 yards per attempt with 7 TD's and 1 INT. This includes a game vs Kentucky where his numbers were similar. The Golden Eagles returned just 4 starters from a defense that ranked 15th in yards per game a year ago, and has surprised ranking #6 so far in 2017. It is an upper-classman team, with all starters juniors or seniors and they have played well. North Texas finished 5-8, and the 8th loss was in a Bowl game. They are a mediocre team, that has put up most of their positive stats vs teams that are far inferior, and will be hard pressed to do so here. The Mean Green fit into an ugly 44-96 ATS situation as well. Make the play on Southern Miss.

The Georgia Bulldogs are always projected to be a borderline elite team, but for some reason, they just don;t seem to live up to it. This year may be different. The Dogs come in at 4-0, and through 4 games have looked like a National Championship contender. They have won on the road at Notre Dame, and dismantled a Miss. St. team at home 31-3, so they surely have been tested. They have a clear advantage in most match ups in this contest, as they run the ball 70% of the time, and do it well, while the best part of the Tennessee defense is against the pass. That is why the Vols struggled vs the two running teams they have faced in Florida, and Georgia Tech, allowing 703 rushing yards on 115 carries. While the Georgia passing attack has not done a lot, they run so much, they catch opponents cheating in the box, and it has led to 8.7 yards per attempt vs opponents allowing 7. The Georgia defense is in the conversation as the best in the country, allowing 4 yards per play vs teams that average 5.8. The mismatches all favor Georgia here, and the line is not absorbing the depth of them. Make the play on Georgia.