The Army v Navy game is one of my favorites, can't remember the last time I missed the game. They have been going at it since the late 1800s, and Navy has certainly had the upper hand, with a series longest 13 game winning streak. these teams both run the flex-bone, or triple-option, and in all their meetings they have gone over the posted total for this game just 7 times in their over 100 meeting history. Granted, in the early days there simply wasn't many games scoring this many points, but that being said, the last 9 games have averaged just 39.8 total combined points with the under prevailing in all 9 games, and no game has seen more than 48 points scored. It seems that when the game is expected to be non-competitive with a posted line of greater than -13, the total points scored is even less. There have been 8 such games 9most of which have been played in the last decade), and never has their been more than 41 combined points scored, when the line is over 13, and in fact the average is just a paltry 31.7ppg. Teams that run the option, can obviously defend it, as they defend it in practice every week. Games between the 3 Military Academies at the FBS level (Army, Navy, and Air Force)have seen the total go 22-7 to the under over the last decade. (Army v Air Force 5-5 O/U but -5.25 ppg under avg), Army v Navy 0-9 O/U -15.67ppg to the under), Navy v Air Force 2-8 O/U -7.35ppg to the under). All together that is 22-7 O/U with the average combined points scored at less than 42ppg! Seems like there is a lot of value here on a total that has been posted in the 50s. Make the play on the under.

The biggest surprise of the 2015 Big-10 Championship game, is the fact that Ohio St. will not be playing in it. Taking the field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis will be the 12-0 Iowa Hawkeyes and the Michigan St. Spartans. Iowa is the surprise entry here, especially at 12-0 on the season, but despite the perfect record, they need to win here to get into the playoffs, as the inner will be one of the final 4 participants for the National Championship, that is a certainty. The issue here for Iowa is the tainted 12-0 record. They have not faced Michigan St. or Ohio St. in each of the last 2 years, the best 2 teams in the Big-10. This season, they have 5 wins by 1 possession, and their 4 out of conference games were against Illinois St., Iowa St., N. Texas, and Pitt...a team they beat by just 3 at home on a miracle 57 yard field goal as time ran out, and had a +1 turnover margin in the game. Iowa has allowed just 2 TD's in the first quarter all season, but overall the defense is showing some wear. The Hawkeyes allowed 18.6ppg in their first 8, with just 1 opponent topping 20, while the last 4 shows 25.5ppg with all 4 opponents scoring 20+. Michigan St. became the first team in NCAA Football, at least since 1980, or perhaps ever, that started the season 6-0 SU, but 0-6 ATS. They are a heartbreaking 1 point loss at Nebraska, in a game they led by 12 points with 4 minutes to go, but ended on a 30 yard Nebraska TD pass, or they would be 12-0 and probably ranked #1. The defense, which what has made this team great, is back in business. The last 3 opponents, have scored a grand total of 37 points against them, and Ohio St. was held to 132 total yards. They have proven they can dominate the best of offenses, and Iowa is far from the best, although good, but I think the Hawkeyes will struggle to move the ball here. The facts are simple. Michigan St. is more tested, with excellent results, and is the better team on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Iowa is feeling the pressure, and playing with a tired defense. many don't realize over the last 4 games against Nebraska, Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota, none of which are better than .500 and combined are 16-30, Iowa has allowed 400+ yards to all of them, and in the 4 games have combined to be out-gained by those 4 teams! Michigan St. fits an 86-37 ATS situation, and make the play on Michigan St., MY NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH.

North Carolina has a lot of things going for it right now. They have been destroying virtually every team in their path, they get the Championship Game in Charlotte, close to home, and they feel disrespected in the polls, as they are 10th in the latest playoff poll. That is all sound reasoning, but a lot of bettors tend to love how this team scores quickly, and wins big, while they feel Clemson at 12-0 isn't as good as the record. That is far from the truth. Clemson is 12-0 because they out-gain their opponent by 213 yards a game, and as good as they are offensively, the defense is equally good. North Carolina has gained 101 yards more per game than their opponent, so they are 112 yards in arrears to Clemson in this area. Moreover, the Heels played an extremely soft schedule, that included 2 FBS teams, and lost to a lower tier SEC team in South Carolina. The bigger issue here is the fact that the Heels average 10 less snaps a game than their opponent. That isn't so much a product of their bad defense, as much as it is their electric offense that scores on few plays and quickly. What happens when that is not the case, vs a strong defense in Clemson, who by the way runs 15 more plays a game than they defend. I project Clemson to run more plays, at more yards per play, and the line here is way too short. Clemson is the real deal here, and North Carolina has had a great season, but with 0 wins vs a ranked team, the numbers, which fall far short of those by Clemson, just don't add up. Make the play on Clemson.

This is a most challenging match up for Air Force as they are going against one of the best defenses in the country in San Diego St. Air Force, like many Military schools run the flex-bone, or a variation there of, and the ball is going to be on the ground a lot, as the Falcons run the ball 83.3% of the time. One of the biggest advantages they have had this season, is they run 10 more plays than their opponents. I'm not so sure that will be the case here. The last 2 years San Diego has held Air Force to 45 rushing attempts per game, 15 below this year's average, but more importantly, just 90 attempts for 309 yards or 3.4 yards per carry. It may be even worse this time around as San Diego St. has held their last 3 opponents to 177 rushing yards on 95 carries, or 1.86 yards per carry, and just 2.8 yards per carry on the season. San Diego St. QB Maxwell Smith hurt his knee in the last game and his replacement, Christian Chapman was just 6-9 and 44 yards, but the running game dominated for San Diego St. and the defense doesn't allow much. This game fits a 300-187 ATS situation, and the San Diego St. defense is allowing 11.3ppg in their 8-0 conference slate, and at the same time, they have scored 30+ in 6 straight games, but may need just 20 here. Line seems low with the questionable status of Smith, and will only rise if he is deemed fit to play, but don't think he is needed here, as the defense will win this game. Make the play on San Diego St.

Kansas St. Coach Bill Snyder had led his team to greatness at home, but this has been a very trying season. All is not lost however, as a win at home Saturday will get the Wildcats to 6-6 and become Bowl eligible, although a shortage of teams to fill Bowls, is going to necessitate several 5-7 teams in the mix, and a 5-7 Big-12 team would be attractive, but the Wildcats don't want to depend on that. The Cats at one time were 3-6 on the season, but 2 straight wins have them at 5-6. remember, they covered as road dog to Oklahoma St. and as a home dog to TCU, but failed in their next 2 at home vs Oklahoma, and at Texas. I think that was more of a product of having played Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., TCU, and Baylor in 4 of 5 games, which just left this team ragged. W. Virginia went through a similar stretch and did not stand up well either, but have come back to win 4 straight, and cover their last 3, against more reasonable competition. I think the Mountaineers at 7-4 don't have a whole lot of incentive here. That is backed up by the fact that "tweener" teams at 7-4 from the Pac-12, Big-10, Big-12, and the ACC are just 61-105-2 ATS, and 8-30 ATS since 2010, and just 3-14 ATS on the road, and just 0-5 ATS in their last 5 as a road favorite. They are also 0-9 ATS playing a team that is .500 or less, and 1-15 ATS vs a team that is .600 or less, losing the last 10 occurrences. Teams that are playing to a line of less than -3 that scored 35 or more points in their last 2, winning the last one by more than 17 are 95-51 ATS, and their are a myriad of home dog situations that are on Bill Snyder, and I think where those didn't work during their impossible 5 game stretch earlier in the season, they should be more reliable in this spot. Make the play on Kansas St.

The Texas St. Bobcats are in a big trouble here. They are 3-8 on the season, and have covered just 3 games all year, and that was to Prairie View A&M, S. Alabama (5-6), and LA Monroe (1-10). They have been posted on average in their 8 losses as a +6.4 point favorite, but have proceeded to lose the 8 games by 22.3ppg, or underachieving the line by 16ppg. they have allowed 46.2ppg in the 8 losses, and are 0-8 ATS in the 8 games, and are now 3-15 ATS in their last 18 losses. Arkansas St. is 8-3 on the season, losing only to USC,Toledo, and Missouri. They are averaging over 50ppg in their 8 wins, where the average margin has been 24.3ppg while averaging being a favorite of just -11.6ppg, over-achieving the line by 13ppg. This looks like a colossal blowout, make the play on Arkansas St.

The MAC Conference Championship Game will feature Northern Illinois and Bowling Green. This will be the 6th straight year that Northern Illinois will be playing for the MAC Championship, but they are just 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5, and this will also be the 3rd straight year these teams will meet for the MAC Title, and they have split the previous 2. Northern Illinois backed into the title game after losing to Ohio, U. as Toledo lost in an attempt to clinch. Northern Illinois is actually a below average offensive team, as they generate -0.2 yards per play vs the average of what their opponents combine to allow. That is not the case with Bowling Green who averages +1.3 yards per play above average, and has a very potent passing game. Bowling Green has made substantial progress defensively this season, after allowing 36.3ppg in their first 6, they have allowed 19.2ppg in their last 6. The Falcons are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as a favorite of more than 7.5 points, and 11-3 ATS in that spot over the last 3 years, and 17-5 ATS in that spot since 2009. Northern Illinois lost QB Drew Hare a few games back, and Ryan Graham, although not bad, has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game, and with the need for points here, against a high octane offense, he may be out of his comfort zone, as he has thrown 3 INT's in 81 passes, to Hare's 4 in 258. Bowling Green fits into a strong 86-37 ATS situation here as well. Make the play on Bowling Green.

I'm not sure there is a team in the country that has galvanized itself, improved tremendously game-by-game as have the San Diego St. Aztecs. After losing 3 straight to Cal, S. Alabama, and Penn St., and sitting at 1-3, the Aztecs have gone 7-0 SU/ATS. They have dominated on both sides of the ball out-scoring their opponents 36.9 to 10.9. They have won their last 5 games by 23 points or more. The Aztecs in their 7 game winning streak have had the #1 defense in the country, as they have allowed 2.5 yards per rush against them, and just 5.2 yards per pass attempt, for an overall defensive average of a nations best 3.77 yards per play. They also fit in a situation that is 109-42 ATS, while Nevada is in a 19-50 ATS spot. Make the play on San Diego St.

Coach Bob Diaco has don a vey good job with this UConn Huskie`s team. Their win over previously 10-0 Houston on Saturday was gigantic in many ways. It got the Huskies Bowl eligible, and ensured extra needed practices for having done so. That also leaves the Huskies in a very flat spot. UConn faces the double jeopardy of having become Bowl eligible, as well as winning as a huge dog. That leaves them in situations that are 2-30, 44-90, and 42-105 ATS. temple is 9-2, and needs a in to clinch the AAC East and play for the championship. They will have both eyes open for this one, and lay it on the Huskies. Make the play on Temple.

The UTEP Miners are 4-7 on the season, and they will play on the road at North Texas, a team that is just 1-10 on the season. UTEP dominated the Mean Green last season at home 35-17, out-gaining them 438-201. Both these teams have been horrible from the line of scrimmage this season, but North Texas has really struggled to get points out of their limited yards, as they throw for just 4.9 yards per attempt and have scored 1 point for every 22 yards gained, extremely below average, while UTEP has generated a point for every 16.9 yards gained. The Mean Green has scored 14 points or less in 7 of their 11 games, while allowing 55+ in 4 of them, and have been out-scored on the season 28.2ppg. Since 1980, there has never been a team getting out-scored by more than 28 points a game, from game 11 on, that has been posted as a favorite! UTEP has been out-scored by 14ppg themselves this season, but over their last 5 games they are 2-3 and have been out-scored by just 4ppg, against better teams. Make the play on UTEP.

This is and always has been an intense rivalry when UCLA takes on neighboring USC. Things have changed at USC, which used to produce Heisman Trophy running backs like a machine. The change has been to QB, and this year they have another good one in Cody Kessler who has thrown for 25 TD's to just 6 INT's on the season. The Trojan's however are picked in the top 10 almost annually, and never seem to live up to the billing, and at 7-4 this season, it has been yet another disappointment. This is a troubled spot for USC, who will be going against the best pass defense they have seen all season, and one of the best in the country. USC is just 4-3 in their last 7 games, and 3 of the 4 wins have all come by a single possession, and have shown little in the way of margin for error, and against a top pass defense, they appear to be on the short side of the match up here. Make the play on UCLA.

The Illinois football program had a lot of issues over the summer, dismissed the coach, and all in all has had a better season than perhaps most expected. The Fighting Illini are 5-6 and need a win to become Bowl eligible. The unfortunate thing is they started the season at 4-1, but have gone 1-5 since, beating just lowly Purdue. Outside of that Purdue game, in their last 7, they have managed just 99 total points at 14.1ppg, and in comes a very strong defensive Northwestern team, looking for their 10th win. Northwestern has held 8 teams on their schedule to 21 points or less, and the woeful Illinois offense is going to be hard pressed to get to 10 here. This Northwestern team, once a cellar-dweller in the Big-12, winning no more than 4 games in any season from 1980-1994, has won 5 or more games in 12 of their last 13 seasons, and with a win here, they will go Bowling with an opportunity to win 11 games, a mark not ever achieved by any Northwestern team in school history. Northwestern has won 4 straight, including wins vs Penn St., and Wisconsin, and owns a big upset win vs Stanford, have perhaps the best team in school history, and closing with 2 wins will clinch that deal for these kids, who will be motivated to leave their mark in history. Make the play on Northwestern.

The Alabama Crimson Tide looked to be vulnerable when they lost at home 43-37 all the way back on the 3rd game of their season. Since then the Tide defense has snuffed out every opponent's offense they have faced, allowing just a stingy 11.1ppg over their last 8 games, and possess the best stop unit in the country. It is also a Tide team that has scored 30 or more points in 9 of 11 games, and 27 or more in 10 of 11. Auburn is just 6-5, and has covered just 2 games all season, one of those by a single point, and have out-scored opponents on the season by just 1ppg. They have allowed 27ppg on the season. My numbers project the Tide with a 200 yard advantage in this game and 1.7 yards better per play. Alabama also knows with a win they could be ranked #1 in the playoffs, and no worse than #2. Make the play on Alabama.

The UTEP Miners are 4-7 on the season, and they will play on the road at North Texas, a team that is just 1-10 on the season. UTEP dominated the Mean Green last season at home 35-17, out-gaining them 438-201. Both these teams have been horrible from the line of scrimmage this season, but North Texas has really struggled to get points out of their limited yards, as they throw for just 4.9 yards per attempt and have scored 1 point for every 22 yards gained, extremely below average, while UTEP has generated a point for every 16.9 yards gained. The Mean Green has scored 14 points or less in 7 of their 11 games, while allowing 55+ in 4 of them, and have been out-scored on the season 28.2ppg. Since 1980, there has never been a team getting out-scored by more than 28 points a game, from game 11 on, that has been posted as a favorite! UTEP has been out-scored by 14ppg themselves this season, but over their last 5 games they are 2-3 and have been out-scored by just 4ppg, against better teams. Make the play on UTEP.

This game will determine the USA Conference East winner, and the right to go on to play in the Conference Championship game. W. Kentucky has run the table in conference play at 7-0, while right on their heels is Marshall at 6-1. While Marshall is 9-2 on the season, they have played a very weak schedule, and although they have not allowed more than 31 points to any team, W. Kentucky is by far the best offense they will have seen all season. We saw it last year, when a Marshall team that finished 13-1 on the season, and in 12 games did not allow any team to score more than 27 points against them, W. Kentucky scored 67. Marshall was able to answer as their offense averaged 45.6ppg a year ago, but that is not the case this year, as they average just 33ppg to a weaker schedule. W. Kentucky fits the profile of an 84-37 ATS situation for this game, and I agree. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

 The Miami, FL Hurricanes are 7-4 on the season, but they are far from a complete team. They are basically a half of a team. They defend the pass well, and offensively are a very good passing team, but at the same time they are a poor rushing team, and defend the run very poorly. Pitt is a much more balanced team, that does everything good, but not great. They are going to be in trouble in this one against a Pitt team that just tore apart, on the ground a pair of very good run stop units in Duke, and Louisville. The Panthers ran for 512 yards on 102 attempts, in those 2 games, and their run and pound offense should be extra effective against a Miami team that ha failed miserably to stop the running game. It won`t help them playing on the road, on a short week, in cold weather. One of the strengths of this Pitt team, is they don`t turn the ball over and beat themselves, with just 3 turnovers in their last 6 games. Pitt runs 8 more plays on average than their opponents, while Miami has had to defend 4 more play a game than they run, so there should also be a play advantage for the Panthers here. Pitt falls into a 76-33 ATS spot here as well. Make the play on Pittsburgh

I'm not sure if I have ever seen a team arrive at week 12 in the NCAA Football season, having played just 1 road game on the season. That has been the case for Texas A&M, who has played 7 of its 10 games at home, and 2 at a neutral site and just 1 on the road. That road game did not turn out very well, as the Aggies lost 23-3 at Ole Miss, and they will face a very strong defense in Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is somehow 4-6 and with 2 wins could become Bowl eligible, despite averaging just 15.4ppg. that is because the defense allows just 17.4ppg. despite the home heavy schedule the Aggies are just 2-3 in their last 5 games, and have failed to cover any of them, as they continue to be overrated. make the play on Vanderbilt.

The Navy has been pretty good for a number of years, as they have had a winning record, and gone to a Bowl in 12 of the last 13 years, compiling a record of 108-55 SU. They are also 88-67-1 ATS during the last 13 years, including 7-2 ATS this year. They have a soring margin in their 8 wins of 23.6ppg. There is no secret as to what Navy is going to do on offense, as they run the triple option to perfection, and it has been getting better as the season moves on as they have averaged over 400 yards a game on the ground in their last 3. Navy has played 6 turnover free games this season, and history shows us that when they don't turn the ball over they are 76.5% ATS. Tulsa's 3 biggest games this season vs Cincinnati, Memphis, and Houston saw them allow a ridiculous 2,000 total yards in the 3 games at 667 yards per game. Those 3 teams ran for 888 yards on 139 carries for 6.4 yards per carry. Needless to say trouble lies ahead here. Central Florida at 0-10 and one of the worst offenses in NCAA football put up over 400 yards and 30 points against the Tulsa defense, despite 4 turnovers. Navy fits an 83-36 ATS situation here. Make the play on Navy.

After 18 straight winning seasons the Southern Miss program fell hard and fast. The previous 3 years saw this team finish 4-32 SU, but have revitalized the program, and come into this game at 7-3. If they take care of business here, they will likely square off with LA Tech next week for the C-USA West Title. two of the 3 losses have come against Nebraska and Miss St, and 6 of their 7 wins on the season have come by 21 points or more. The numbers from the line of scrimmage are considerably above average offensively, and a tick above average defensively. Old Dominion is 5-5 and it is pretty distinct what they have done on the season. Their 5 wins were against teams that have a combined record of 9-32, as well as beating Norfolk St. Despite the poor teams in the 5 wins they manage to win by an average margin of just 7.2ppg. The 5 losses have come to teams that are 36-16, with an average margin of 29.4ppg! You can see they have not been up to the task of taking on good teams. they have in fact gone 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 losses as a FBS team. Make the play on Southern Miss.

The Nevada Wolf Pack have the better record entering this game, and they are on a 3 game winning streak, and have now become Bowl eligible at 6-4. They have done so on the strength of their running game which went for 771 yards on 155 carries at 4.97 yards per carry. Utah St. meanwhile has allowed 1047 rushing yards on 222 carries in their last 4 games. Despite the numbers, it is heavy running teams putting them up, and they are allowing less than 5 yards per carry. Nevada runs the ball 61% of the time because they are an awful passing team. Utah St. has a 2 yard per play projected advantage in this game, and about 140 total yards, and Utah St. also has a special teams advantage in this game. Utah St. tends to be extremely good at home where they are 13-0 in their last 13 games here, allowing just 15.6ppg, and winning by 20ppg. Utah St. also is playing for Bowl eligibility, and have extra incentive here. Make the play on Utah St.

It has been a tough go for Rutgers playing in the Big-10, as the Scarlet Knights own a 3-7 record on the season, and have dropped their last 4 games by a combined score of 47-177. They will take on an Army team that is just 2-8 on the season, and the Black Knights have now dropped 3 straight of their own. There are a few things to look at here. Rutgers has been playing a schedule of teams that show many of them ranked, or on the cusp of being ranked, while Army has played a nothing schedule in contrast to that. The big weakness for Rutgers is a disgraceful pass defense, but that won't come into play here, because Army has thrown the ball just 44 times in their last 6 games, just about 7 total passes a contest. Rutgers also has a strong history defending the triple option as they are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs Army, and 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against Navy. That is 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS defending the option. Army has never stacked up well vs power conference teams of any sort. They are 7-22 ATS vs the ACC,Pac-12,SEC, B-10,B-12, and the old Big East when taking less than 6 points, and 5-14 ATS as a favorite. They are also 3-17 ATS to the above scenario if their winning percentage is less than .700, and 0-11 ATS since 1990. Make the play on Rutgers.

The Iowa Hawkeyes cleared the path to a perfect regular season last week, taking down Minnesota, to move to 10-0. The Hawkeyes have not had to play the top teams in the Big-10, but nevertheless, if they run the table and finish 12-0, and beat a 12-0 Ohio St. team, they are going to be in the final four. Right now they have to take care of business vs Purdue. Purdue somehow put 55 points up against Nebraska in a shocking win a couple of weeks ago, but the rest of the season has been a disaster, and the Purdue offense is really bad. Purdue has been brutal against the run and that is the part of the Iowa offense that has been the best, as they have run for 234 yards or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Iowa doesn't beat themselves as the Hawkeyes over their last 5 games have committed a total of 2 turnovers while their opponent has turned the ball over 17 times in the last 7 games. Purdue was +2 in turnovers last week vs Northwestern and still lost by 7 points, and the likelihood here is they will be negative, against an even better team. Iowa is in a 58-23 ATS spot in this one as well. Make the play on Iowa.

No team has played as tough of a schedule as Iowa St. Yes, they come into this game at just 3-7, but the 7 losses include 6 teams with a combined record of 55-4! The other team is a Bowl eligible, and 6-5 Texas Tech team. They have out-scored the 3 teams they beat 93-20, including Texas, in a shutout win. Kansas St. has one of their worst teams in recent years at just 3-6, and the 6 losses have all come in their last 6 games, where they have allowed 42.7ppg. The defense is missing a lot in the back 4 with injuries, and disciplinary issues, and this is a broken team right now. Kansas St. has not won a conference game all season, and I think the will of this team has been broken. Make the play on Iowa St.

If the Central Florida Knights are going to win a game this season, this will be it. they have had plenty of rest, and they know time is running out, and they face an East Carolina team that has really gone down hill. The Pirates have dropped 3 straight games, all as a favorite, and certainly don't have much of a history playing as a road chalk of more than -6, as they are 1-14 ATS in that role the last 14 years, and despite those games showing on average they have been -11.5 favorites, they have averaged winning the games by 1 point!, and have dropped 6 of them. ECU has averaged less than 15ppg in their last 3, and even the Knights have done better than that! Knights look to be in good shape to get the money in this one. Make the play on Central Florida.

If your a fan of the MAC Conference, it doesn't get much better than this. Western Michigan heads to DeKalb, where the MAC Championship often goes through, to face N. Illinois. While their are many scenarios separating the 3 teams that stand at 5- in the MAC West (Toledo, W. Michigan, and N. Illinois), one thing is certain, either team that wins this game, and wins their finale, is the MAC West Champion, and will square off with Bowling Green for the MAC Championship. This is an interesting match up between a pair of dead even teams. It depicts one of the best home teams in the FBS as N. Illinois is 35-2 SU in their last 37 home games, and just 5 of those games has them winning by 3 points or less, but there is a caveat. The 37 games show that 22 of them were against losing teams, and of the 15 other games vs .500 or better teams, more than half ended with a 7 point or less win, or a loss by NIU. meanwhile, the best cover team in the FBS, Western Michigan is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games, 6-4 SU, and those 10 games include N, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Ohio St., and Bowling Green. One staple of the games are the Broncos offensive trio of QB Zach Terrell who is just a junior, but has already thrown for over 7.700 yards and 57 TD's in his career. He has a pair of dynamic receivers in Dan Braveman and Corey Davis that have combined for 158 catches for 2,046 yards and 19 TD's. between them they have caught 75% of all Bronco completions on the season. N. Illinois took a blow when QB Drew Hare went down with a season ending injury, but back up Ryan Graham has been every bit his equal since taking over. I think the difference in this one is the experience of Western Michigan, with a core of skill players that have not been shaken on the road, or the big moment. The Broncos are 6-4 SU in their last 10 despite being an average of +11.2 points per game under dogs. Davis has little experience at QB, and although he has performed very well, this is a big stage, and I like the experience of Terrell and his experienced receivers to rise in the moment. Make the play on W. Michigan.

Wyoming has some serious issues. They are a bad team, but also one that will be playing for an 11th straight week. They will have to do so on the road vs a red-hot, and improving San Diego St. team that has had a week of rest. San Diego St. started the season at 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, but have grown into a vastly improved tem, and stands at 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5. They are 5-0 in the Mountain West for the 1st time in school history, and over their last 28 conference games the Aztecs own a 21-6-1 ATS mark. The Aztecs have dominated their 5 conference opponents, as they have out-gained them by 196 yards per contest, while Wyoming has been -83 yards in conference games. Wyoming is allowing 8.6 yards per pass attempt, and an above average Aztec passing game, will be piling it on here. Make the play on San Diego St.

The Oregon St. Beavers are falling apart, and they now must deal with an injury at QB, which is going to set the offense back even further. QB Seth Collins was not having such a great year, and has missed the last 2 weeks, but replacement Nick Mitchell has been even worse, completing less than 50% of his passes, throwing 1 TD to 4 INT's. The other issue is that Collins was the best ball carrier the beavers had producing 536 yards at 5.4 yards per carry and 5 TD's. Mitchell has 25 carries for 19 yards. The already struggling Oregon St. offense has scored 1 fourth quarter touchdown in 2 games. The defense has also had issues against strong offensive teams, such as Cal, as they have allowed 40+ in 4 games already. This is a tall task to stay within 3 TD's, and Cal needs a win to become Bowl eligible, and this is the best place for them to find it. Make the play on Cal.

New Mexico is 5-4 and just 1 win away from becoming Bowl eligible, but they won`t get that 6th win this week at Boise St. The Lobos are off a shocking 14-13 win at Utah St. as a 20.5 point under dog, and that sets them up for a mighty letdown this week. The Lobos are all about the run, and Boise St. is allowing 2.6 yards per carry on the season, one of the best run stop units in the country. meanwhile, the Broncos elite passing game will torch a poor New Mexico secondary, in a gigantic mismatch. Since 2000, Boise St. with 43 wins at home by 30 or more points has done so more than any other team in NCAA Football. The Broncos own the situations for this one which are 25-2 ATS, 89-43 ATS, 104-51 ATS, while New Mexico, in part because of their big dog upset win are in negative situations of 1-21 ATS, 31-72 ATS, and 44-101 ATS. Make the play on Boise St.

 This is a very good match up for North Carolina. The Heels have a very balanced offense, one that runs and passes well. Miami has favorable numbers defending the pass, but has been soft vs the run, and if they commit an extra man in the box to defend it the Tar Heels elite passing attack at 10.1 yards per attempt on the season will exploit them. defensively the Heels are slightly below average vs the run, but Miami is not a strong running attack, as their strength has been in the air, but the back 7 for Carolina has been equally good negating the advantage. Miami,FL has actually been out-gained by their opponents on the season, and North Carolina applies to 60-13 ATS, and 100-37 ATS situations. Make the play on North Carolina.

: The Miami, Ohio Red Hawks won their 2nd game of the season last week, at the expense of an Eastern Michigan team that has been one of the worst programs in NCAA Football over the past 2 decades. Miami has a very poor offense, and what complicates things further is they generate 1 point for every 20.4 yards gained, which doesn`t bode well for them here. Akron does not have a lot of offense, but the defense ranks amongst the best in the MAC allowing just 4.9 yards per play, and the Miami offense, in their last 6 losses has generated a grand total of 13.3ppg. Akron has been up to the challenge against some of the weaker teams on their schedule as they have scored 35 in 3 of their 4 wins. Make the play on Akron.

Army does not get the call very often as a home favorite, where they are 30-42 ATS since 1989. They will be in that role this week as they take on a Tulane team that lost an ugly game last week at home to Connecticut 7-3 in a driving rain storm. Tulane has a distinct advantage in this game, as they have already faced a triple option opponent in Navy this year. The Green Wave has a strong run defense, and held the Navy triple option to a season low 133 yards on 54 carries, at just a meager 2.5 yards per tote. The Green Wave won the battle at the line of scrimmage by almost 100 yards, but a -3 turnover margin did them in, although they still got the cover. Tulane averages less than 17ppg, but Army has struggled against such teams as they are 17-38 ATS when facing them, allowing 24.2ppg, and 2-11 ATS when Army has a winning percentage of less than .250, and 0-10 ATS from +9 to -10. Make the play on Tulane.

This is a horrible statistical match up for Purdue. The Boilermakers average just 4.7 yards per play and allow 6 yards per play, so they are almost always in a bad statistical spot. They will face a 7-2 Northwestern team that loves to pound the ball, as they run 62% of the time. That is problematic for a Purdue team that defends the pass reasonably well, but allows 5.1 yards per carry to a schedule of teams that average 4.2. That has shown up as 4 of their last 7 opponents gaining 237 yards or more against them on the ground. Teams that rush for 200 yards or more are a 68.1% chance of covering proposition, and Northwestern accomplished that last week vs a strong Penn St. defense, and I like their chances of doing so again here. Make the play on Northwestern.

This will be Frank Beamer's last year coaching at Virginia Tech, as he announced his retirement at the beginning of the season. He has produced 22 straight Bowl seasons, and a winning record in each, but in his gun lap at coach this season his Hokies are just 4-5. The Hokies are 44-29-1 ATS as a road dog since 1980, and 22-9-1 ATS with revenge, as well as 15-4-1 ATS if the line is less than +13. Virginia Tech has had ample time to prepare for the option attack utilized by Georgia Tech, and have a strong history defending against it, as they have held the Yellow Jackets to 114 yards below their season average in the last 3 meetings. The Virginia Tech offense has gotten a boost with the emergence of Trevon McMillan, as he has galloped for 110 yards per game over the last 4, and with Georgia Tech losing arguably their best defender in DT Adam Gotsis to a season ending injury last game, the Jackets could be further exploited, as their already pedestrian run stop unit could be further weakened. Georgia Tech QB Justin Thomas has struggled without a supporting cast, and has generated 3.6 yards per carry, down from 5.7 a year ago, and he has completed just 43.6% of his passes on the season. meanwhile, Virginia Tech QB Michael Brewer returned from a broken collarbone to go 39-46 for 450 yards 4 TD's and 1 INT. This offense is better with brewer and the running of McMillan. The extra time to prepare, allows Frank beamer to usually come up with some type of surprise fake punt, onside kick, or gadget play, and don't be surprised to see something here if the timing is right. The Hokies 4 losses have come by 23 total points, despite being -2 in turnovers to Pitt a 4 point loss, and -4 vs Miami in a 10 point loss. tech is statistically better than their record, but the intangibles here favor Virginia Tech, as his team will fight hard to get Bowl eligible, knowing this is a must game, and with the emergence of a running game, and Brewer playing at a higher level, and the crafty Beamer with extra time, and the Georgia Tech loss of Gotsis, are all factors here. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

Cal opened the season at 5-0 and looked to be a team in the hunt for the Pac-12 Championship game, but the schedule stiffened, and the powerful offense led by future #1 NFL draft choice Jered Goff has sputtered. The Bears went for over 30 points per game in every one of their 5 wins, but over the last 3, all losses, they have failed to get to 30 in any of them. Goff has been picked off 11 times, including 9 in his 5 games vs Pac-12 opponents. Oregon is a much better team with a healthy Vernon Adams under center. The Ducks may not be as explosive as they have been over the past several years, but they have topped the 60 point mark 3 times on the season, and Cal had yielded 34.5ppg in their 4 road games on the season. Ducks fit a 55-22 ATS situation here as well. Make the play on Oregon.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have proven to be able to stop the mediocre offenses that they have faced this season. It remains to be seen if they can handle the potent Buckeye attack, even though they will be without QB J.T. Barrett. Minnesota has faced 5 teams that average 28ppg or less and held them to 91 points or 18.2ppg. However, the 2 offenses that average over 28ppg against they have allowed 38.5ppg against. Ohio St. is far and away better than either of those 2, and at the same time have an elite defense, while the Minnesota offensive attack is below average. This should lead to a huge advantage by Ohio St. on both sides of the ball. Buckeyes have a 56-19 ATS situation on their side, as well as a 29-4 ATS situation. Make the play on Ohio St.

The Naval Academy has had more success on the road than any other NCAA team in the country, and it is not even close. Since the start of the 1980 season, the Middies are 80-38-2 ATS on the road. That includes 28-11-1 ATS from game 8 on, and 14-2-1 ATS from +9 or less. Memphis is 8-0 on the season, and I don't think I ever remember an 8-0 team that has given up over 40 points in 3 of the games, as Memphis has done. Memphis has not faced a military team in 13 years, and has not faced Navy since at least 1980. Memphis has another problem, as next week they will play at Houston who is unbeaten, and that game is likely for a spot in the AAC Championship game. Make the play on Navy.

It is shaping up to be a showdown between LA Tech and S. Miss for the C-USA West crown, and they will meet in each team's final regular season game. The Bull Dogs have what should be their 5th blowout win of the season against a weak North Texas team at home this week. The Bull Dogs own 4 of their 6 wins to a margin of 25 points or better. When your playing in a mid-major conference, your going to be a very tough team when you fill the skill positions across the board with star talent. The Bull Dogs have RB Ken Dixon 128-741 11 TD's and 5.8ypc, WR Trent Taylor 72-1003 7 TD, and Florida transfer QB Jeff Driskel 2,729 passing yards at 8.6 yards per attempt 19 TD and just 4 INT's. The Bull Dogs have won 8 straight at home averaging 49.2ppg in the process, and have not been shy about running it up, with wins by 52, 49, 47, and 35 points. The Mean Green has had just 1 winning season in their last 11, and outside of that winning season they are 8-48 SU on the road since 2006 and have averaged 14ppg in their 4 road games this season. North Texas is in a dreadful historic situation this week, one that is 44-100 ATS. Make the play on LA Tech.

This is always a well anticipated game between Military Academies. That has not been too advantageous for the Black Knights however. Army is 25-44-1 ATS in their last 70 games vs the Army, or the Navy, and their last 17 visits to Air Force, they are 4-12-1 ATS (1-16 SU), including 1-7-1 ATS if they are a dog of more than +13. Overall, their games vs their Military rivals show a 20-40-1 ATS mark if they enter with a winning percentage of less than .650. bad teams tend to not benefit by a bye, in fact it appears to be a negative in the case of Army, who is now a woeful 8-33 ATS with rest of 12 to 14 days (essentially off a bye, including 1-11 ATS on the road. (That includes 0-6 ATS vs Air Force). Army is also 3-25 ATS off 12 to 14 days rest as a dog of 3 or more, including 2-19 ATS vs their military rivals. Make the play on Air Force.

This game fits a totals situation which is 106-62 ATS, and the play is on the under.

 The BYU Cougars have managed to sustain a high level of offense, despite losing their premier offensive players in Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams. They have not played a competitive game for over 3 weeks, and the offense likes to play fast, but may find itself a bit rusty here. BYU is an average team on the ground, but above average in the air, and that has been the strength of the San Jose defense that allows just 5.8 yards per pass attempt on the season. The best part of this game is a situation which has been 68-27 ATS since 1980, and when the line has been 10 to 13.5 the under dog has gone 8-10 SU, well worth an equal play on the money line, which is currently at 423. Make the play on San Jose St.

Temple put up a valiant effort against Notre Dame at home last week, had the win in their grasp, but fell short by just 4 points. It was the Owls first defeat of the season, and they must now pick up the pieces and head to SMU, in a game that will be very difficult for them to get very excited about, and a huge letdown spot, especially with Memphis waiting in the wings in 2 weeks, and on a short week. SMU has just 1 win on the season, matching their total from a year ago, but they managed to produce 400 yards vs Houston, and 508 yards vs TCU, so they are capable of producing here, especially if Temple is flat as expected. The fact is the loss last week leaves Temple in a 21-49 ATS spot, as well as a 48-86 ATS situation. Make the play on SMU.