It has been 3 weeks since Vanderbilt has taken the field, as they had their game vs Missouri postponed due to covid-19, and are off a scheduled bye last week. The Dores have been missing a lot of players from practice, although they are getting healthy. This Vanderbilt team is averaging a woeful 8ppg, and appears to be the worst offense in football right now. They should however have some success vs an Ole Miss team that is the worst defense in the SEC, but how much? Things got so bad for Ole Miss last week they had to add 2 offensive players to the defensive depth chart. This week they will certainly have a better defensive unit with CB's Jakorey Hawkins, and Deane Leonard returning, along with DE Tariquis Tisdale. Ole Miss has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, and has moved the ball well against all of them and have been out-gained by just 35ypg. QB Matt Corral had 9 TDs to just 1 INT through 3 games, but 3 TDs and 8 INTs in the last 2. Look for him to get back on track here. Vandy has allowed 40+ in their last 2 games, and while the offense should certainly score more than the 7 points they have in each of their last 2, they just don't have the necessary tools at the skill positions on offense to take advantage here. Vandy has scored no more than 14 points in its last 7 conference games and has allowed 36ppg inside the conference covering their last 28. I see a major blowout here. Make the play on Ole Miss.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a date at home next week vs Clemson. That may serve as a red flag for some bettors, as many will believe the Irish may have their eyes looking ahead against Georgia Tech. The surprising thing in all this is that the opposite is true. An unbeaten team that has their next game against an opponent that is ranked in the top 5 and is in game 4 or more, and favored by more than 17 points is actually 41-12 ATS.

WP = 100 and no:rank 3 and line < -17
SU:    52-1-0 (32.25, 98.1%)        Teaser Records
ATS:    41-12-0 (5.30, 77.4%)   

Make the play on Notre Dame.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights had what appears to be a big win over Michigan St. last week. The win snapped a 22 game conference losing streak. many are going to note that the difference is having Greg Schiano back. Schiano took over a Rutgers program, and it took him 5 years to get to a Bowl game, so to expect Rutgers to make a quantum leap after a win against a very bad Michigan St. team isn`t very feasible. Quietly the Michigan St. program he beat has been eroding for a few years, and there is not much left. The Spartans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 conference games, and has not had a better than 10 point win in a conference home game since 2016! Rutgers was out-gained by about 100 yards vs a bad team. The Spartans also turned the ball over a ridiculous 7 times, allowing the mediocre Rutgers offense to score 21 points on 3 drives that totaled 10 plays and 50 total yards. Indiana won 8 games a year ago, the most since 1993, and if QB Michael Penix Jr. stays healthy, the Hoosiers should have an even better team. Yes, Indiana beat Penn St. in a fluke, as they were out-gained by 277 yards. That was a horrible game by Penn St. that dominated completely, and the Nittany Lions are legit. They have 9 starters back on defense, from a team that allowed just 24.4ppg a year ago, and have edges all over the field. The Hoosiers are legit, and Rutgers is certainly improved, especially with an apparent upgrade at QB in Nebraska transfer Noah Vedral at QB. I think Rutgers will improve under Schiano, but after a surprise win, that was tainted by 7 turnovers, against a very bad team, this number is being held down. Indiana is legit, Rutgers is not. Make the play on Indiana

What a painful loss for a program that is desperate to get a win. Rice lined up for a game winning FG, and the ball hit the uprights, and crossbar 4 times before bouncing out. The game will forever be known as the quadruple doink. Rice ended up losing in double overtime. The Owls are now 6-31 over the last 3 years plus a game. Southern Miss has seen it all this year, as they are now on their 3rd head coach of the season, all this has happened in 5 games. The Eagles are off to a dreadful start at 1-4 SU/ATS being out-scored by 12.9ppg. The news gets worse as back up QB Tate Whatley is out, and tarting QB Jack Abraham missed last week with covid, but is expected to start on Saturday. Covid has really interfered with Southern Miss this season, and the coaching situation is like something never seen before. Seems like troubled waters. Make the play on Rice.

Someone will lose their first game as 3-0 Cincinnati takes on 5-0 SMU. The Mustangs have a big-time offense, in particular a passing offense that generates 10 yards per attempt. They have now scored 30 or more points in 16 of their last 17 games, limited in a slow down running game vs Navy to 28. Cincinnati has played absolutely no one to this point, and the 3-0 record is misleading, and they are generating a high rating based on last year more than anything they have done this year, which includes 8 turnovers in 3 games on offense. SMU lost Reggie Roberson at WR, but it did not slow down the passing attack. Make the play on SMU.

This game fits my mega totals situation, and the play is on the under.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish head to Pittsburgh with a 4-0 record on the season. I believe the Irish are an overrated team at this point, and after 4 straight at home they will have a tough test against a Pittsburgh team that has a strong defense. The Irish opponents have put together an ugly 3-16 mark against FBS teams. Those teams have been out-scored on the road 34.5-18.75 and are a combined 1-11. QB Joey Yellen gets the start for Pitt, and I don't think there is much difference. Pittsburgh is out-gaining opponents by over 100 yards per game, and Notre Dame will face a defense that allows just 62 rushing yards per contest. The last 8 meetings has seen Notre game have a combined scoring margin of just 14 points or 1.8 per contest. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Iowa St. has done a lot of losing over the years, but Matt Campbell has turned the Cyclone program completely around. None of the prior 6 coaches left Iowa St. with a winning record. After his first season the Cyclones are 26-17 SU, covering 60% and is 10-2-1 ATS as a conference dog in his last 13. Despite being an average 9 point dog, he has outscored those opponents as a dog. he has an NFL caliber QB in Brock Purdy. Oklahoma St. has long had a reliable QB and high scoring offense, but that is not the case, as they go back and forth between Spencer Sanders and Shane Illingworth. Oklahoma St has reached #6 in the polls, and this team is highly over-rated and lost the yardage battle to both W. Virginia, and Tulsa. I think the Cyclones have the better team and the better QB in this one, and will play the road team. make the play on Iowa St.

This game is part of the mega total system that I have. Make the play on the under.

Texas AM waited a long time or what they did last week vs Florida. They beat a top 5 team at home or the first time in 18 years. That is giving this team a lot more respect than they deserve. Florida is not a top 5 team at any point this season. You would have to look pretty hard to find a top 5 team that allows better than 33ppg. QB Kellen Mond is vastly overrated, The offense generates 455 vs a schedule of teams allowing 473. Those are pedestrian numbers. The best part of the Aggie team is the run defense allowing 3.4 yards per carry vs a schedule of teams generating 4.2. The problem is Mike Leech teams don`t run the ball, as the Bulldogs run 18 times a game andd pass 63. The best part of the AM team will be a non-factor in this contest. What will be under the gun is an Aggie defense that allows a stunning 10.2 yards per pass attempt. However, the biggest advantage is the Miss St. defense that allows a stingy 4.2 yards per play to a schedule of teams that generate 5.5. Miss St. has turned the ball over 14 times in 3 games, which is unsustainable, and makes them look a lot worse than they really are. AM could be flat as a pancake off their biggest win in close to 2 decades, and a road favorite off a win vs a top 14 team is 88-116-2 ATS covering just 43.1%. (drops to 40% in an anticipated competitive game with a line of -6 or lower). Make the play on Miss St.

Duke has one number that is difficult to wrap around. Through 5 games they have turned the ball over 19 times. That means the offense has forfeited possession 19 times, yet they have scored 31 and 38 points in the last 2 games, and had 102 offensive snaps in their last one despite 4 turnovers. NC State has scored 137 points and allowed 137 points through 4 games, or on average close to 70ppg. I think the points will be flowing in this game, and would project this one closer to 70 than 60. Make the play on the over.

Notre Dame is off to a 3-0 start, but there are still a lot of questions for this team. They destroyed a helpless S. Florida team, but against a pair of mediocre teams in Florida St. and Duke. They failed to cover or put away either of them. Louisville is 1-3 and has some offensive upside, which could keep the backdoor open. Notre Dame will be in their 4th straight home game. Louisville may be 1-3 on the season, but they have out-gained the 4 opponents by better than 30 yards per game. The killer for this team thus far is their -8 turnover margin on the season. I went against the Irish last week vs Florida St. for the win, and Louisville is very similar to that team, but I think more upside if they can resolve the unfortunate turnovers. Make the play on Louisville.

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

The SEC is certainly at the top of the mountain when it comes to NCAA Football. The 3 teams that seem to get all the attention are Auburn, Georgia, and Alabama. This is a much more vulnerable team in Auburn than most years. QB Bo Nix gets a lot of ink, but he has yet to show he is special, as most thought this would be a breakout year for him. The Auburn defense is young, banged up, and has been below average thus far. The Tigers are 2-1, but could easily be 0-3. A late controversial call, a missed extra point, and a failed 2 point conversion helped them beat Arkansas last week. Their opener against Kentucky saw them at +3 in turnovers, in a game where they lost the yardage battle. South Carolina lost to Tennessee by just 4 points, winning the yardage battle, but lost the turnover battle 2-0. They lost the yardage battle to Florida by just 19 yards, and dominated Vandy 41-7. Overall, South Carolina has been 150 yards a game compared to Auburn (+92 to -58), to a fairly comparable schedule. Wrong team favored. Make the play on South Carolina.

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

The BYU Cougars are 4-0 on the season, but after beating their first 3 opponents by an average margin of 41ppg, they beat UT San Antonio at home by just 7. While the running game has been pretty vanilla thus far QB Zach Wilson has been electric completing 80% of his passes. The Cougars looked very ordinary last week against a solid team, but now they head out on the road after 3 straight home games, and their stiffest test of the season thus far. Houston is extremely under the radar and is the most experienced team in the country with 9 starters returning on both sides of the ball. What is even better than that, is they have 3 transfers from power 5 schools on defense that had to sit out a year ago. They are all starting, so 3 starters on defense rom a year ago, add depth to the Houston defense. Looking at the final score of Houston vs Tulane looked like a shootout, as Houston won 49-31. AA closer look reveals Tulane scored 14 defensive points, had a 5-0 turnover advantage and still lost by 18. To put that in perspective, since 1980, just 5 teams that lost the turnover battle 5-0 won the game out of 119 occurrences, and no team won by more than 14 points, until Houston. That is because despite 5 ewer possessions, Houston won the yardage battle 476-211. Houston QB Clayton Tune led an above average offense when he started a year ago, and this is a complete Houston team. I would not be surprised if they won here outright. Make the play on Houston.

This will be a reset game for Notre Dame who has not played in nearly a month. It is the age of covid, and after starting 2-0 the Irish missed better than a week of practice time, and even held a scrimmage right in the middle of their season, because the circumstances are so disjointed. They struggled in game 1 vs a not so good Duke team, winning 27-13, and we will likely see them struggle against a not so good Florida St. team that trailed in the 2nd half vs Jacksonville St. last week. The Mike Norvell era is off to a shaky start, but perhaps on a brighter note he may have found himself a QB. The Florida St. offense was really struggling and in comes Jordan Travis. Travis went 12/17 with a TD, and led the Noles to 5 straight TD drives. He has been named the starter vs Notre Dame. The Irish will still have 10 or so players missing for this game. The public is all over Notre Dame at 88%, and this number is eroding despite of that. This looks like the ideal place to buy some ugly. Make the play on Florida St.

Kentucky has shot themselves in the foot in 2 straight games and it has led to an 0-2 start. The Cats have played a pair of close games but are -4 in turnovers, and 2 cost them dearly as they occurred at the 1 yard line ready to score. Cats lost last week on a missed extra point in overtime. They have out-gained their opponent by 80 yards a contest, and have a solid experienced QB in Terry Wilson who is completing just under 70% of his passes. The ground game is strong, and the defense is above average. Kylin Hill may very well miss this contest for Miss St. who upset LSU, and then went and lost to Arkansas at home. Welcome to the Mike Leach era. Cats season is on the line in this one, and they haven't started 0-3 in 38 years. Balance is the key here, and this line looks a bit light to me, and a false favorite. Make the play on Kentucky.

This game is part of my monster total algorithm, that has crushed totals in NCAA Football for years, and is 66% over 800+ games. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 106-47-4 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

The BYU Cougars certainly have not been in the deep end of the pool yet, but that won't change this week as they host UT San Antonio. The Cougars have put up "Alabama" like passing numbers thus far, and I don't see UT San Antonio being the place that stops. The Cougars are generating 8.3 yards per play, and UTSA just 4.1. BYU has played a tougher schedule, even though it has been soft, and own a 400 yard advantage over their opponents. That could be larger here. UTSA is +5 in turnovers, so they have actually been worse than they look, which is already bad. This looks like a 58-6 type game to me. Make the play on BYU.

The 3 military schools Army, Navy, and Air Force run the triple option almost every play. That leads to short games, and defenses that practice against it every day, and always do a good job against it when they face each other. the 3 schools are now 33-9 to the under when facing each other the last 14 years. Make the play on the under.

The Baylor Bears are off a 47-14 win last week vs Kansas. While that may look like a monster win the numbers inside the game show just how misleading the score was. The Bears had 2 kick off returns for TDs and recorded a safety as well. They averaged just 5.5 yards per play vs a Kansas team that already lost to Coastal Carolina at home. Baylor won the first down battle just 24-20 and the total yards by 352-328. That hardly looks like a 47-14 game. West Virginia on the other hand W. Virginia lost 27-13 at Oklahoma St. despite winning the 1st down battle 22-20 and the total yards battle 353-342. Oklahoma St. also had a 56 yard fumble recovery TD in that game. Both these teams are off misleading scores. I'm in Neal Brown's corner as his team at Troy made huge strides in year 2. The Mountaineers played an 111 win Baylor team to within a FG last year on the road, and just 2 defenders return from that team. Baylor faced a 3rd team QB against Kansas last week so the defensive effort has to be weighed accordingly. I think this line is off, and W. Virginia should be favored here. Make the play on W. Virginia.

Arkansas St. is a football program, and Coastal Carolina is trying to be one. The Red Wolves have had a winning record for 9 straight seasons, while Coastal Carolina has never had one. So here is an Arkansas St. team that went to Kansas St. as a monster under dog and won. That win became more legit after Oklahoma lost to Kansas St. at home. So something stinks to high heaven here does it not. The Chanticleers are just a FG+ dog at home on Saturday. Well, maybe not. Coastal Carolina has knocked on the door the last 2 years winning 5 games, and just shy of Bowl eligibility. They went to Arkansas St. last year and lost by a single point. So what has changed? Coastal Carolina has a freshman QB in Grayson McCall that has thrown 7 TDs and 0 INTs through 2 games and has looked very good. Arkansas St. has a very ugly home v road dichotomy, as they are 47-156-5 SU on the road while they are 101-54 SU at home. That is one of thee largest gaps in college football. Coastal Carolina is the only team that got in all 15 spring practices. Covid issues have plagued Arkansas St. who have not played since the upset of Kansas St. 3 weeks ago. Make the play on Coastal Carolina.

The BYU Cougars have come out looking like a special team. They have dominated 2 opponents in Navy, and Troy. They have won the 2 games by a combined score of 103-10. QB Zach Wilson has emerged as a high octane QB through 2 games completing 80% of his passes at 12.5 yards per attempt. LA Tech has a pretty pedestrian defense and has thus far underachieved vs a pair of weak offensive teams. The BYU defense has been every bit as good, and the altitude here is also going to come into play. I think this sets up as another blowout win for BYU who also fits into a very strong 90-34-3 ATS situation. I'm all in on the Cougars. Make the play on BYU.

There is one thing for sure, the Georgia Bulldogs are going to have an elite defense, and they may need to. QB Jake Fromm has left for the NFL. QB JT Daniels was the heir apparent, but he tore his ACL, and then had to have additional surgery in January. Daniels as of now has not been cleared to play. Moreover, the Bulldogs thought they had everything covered with Wake Forest grad transfer Jamie Newman. Newman suddenly opted out 3 weeks ago, and Georgia will have to go with freshman D`Wan Mathis. That creates a lot of unknowns for the Georgia offense, especially playing on the road as a 4 TD favorite, the largest road point spread ever for the Dogs in a conference game since at least 1980. Arkansas will start Florida transfer Felipe Franks, who gives them a pretty solid upgrade. The Dogs have only been a conference favorite 4 times of greater than 27 points and covered none of them. There are a lot of questions for this team, and I like Arkansas and the bundle in this one.

The Army has started at 2-0, after a disappointing 5-8 season in 2019. I don`t think the 2-0 record says they are back, as they were 3-1 last yer, before finishing 2-7. This year they have faced 2 brutal opponents, and it has made them look a lot better than they really are. The offense is going to struggle against a Cincinnati defense that allowed 20.6ppg a year ago and return 10 starters. Those 10 starters shutout Navy allowing 124 rushing yards on 52 carries. Army tends to have an edge running the triple option, but Cincinnati has defended the option vs Navy with the returning starters, and I don`t think Army is going to score much at all here. The Army defense is pretty solid and Cincinnati is not an explosive offensive team. Army will milk a lot of clock running on just about every down, and Cincinnati runs a lot as well. This game fits an extremely strong under indicator, that is 40-6-6 ATS, that plays in part on two teams off 4 TD or better wins. Make the play on the under.

Matt Campbell sure has upgraded the Iowa St. football program. He has an NFL caliber QB, and the Cyclones are no longer the doormat of the Big-12 Conference. Looking at their opener against Louisiana may have a lot of people doubting the Cyclones, but that was a total fluke. Iowa St. gained more yards, had more first downs, but ended up losing by 17. The last 10,000+ NCAAF games shows that if a team has more total yards along with more first downs, they win 84.2% of the time, and cover 62.7% of the time at home. They lose by 17 or more points just 2% of all games. The reason was Iowa St. gave up a 95 yard kickoff return, an 83 yard punt return, a 78 yard broken coverage passing TD, and for good measure a TD in the last 10 seconds. It is one of those games you just forget about, and move on. TCU has dealt with covid issues, and this will be their first game of the season. I like the upside here with Iowa St. and a pro caliber QB, vs a backup for TCU, who has not seen the field yet. Make the play on Iowa St.

The Liberty Flames are now under the direction of Hugh Freeze. Hugh Freeze is 57-34 ATS in his career, and is now with his 3rd team. he has been one of the top coaches in the country in that respect. his Liberty team was expected to take a fall this season, but he brought in Auburn transfer Malik Willis to play QB. Willis ran for 168 yards and 3 TDs last week, and added 133 in the air, so he was personally responsible for over 300 yards of offense. When the QB is good, the team usually plays and looks better. The Flames out-gained W. Kentucky by just under 200 yards. Enter FIU. FIU lost their QB to the NFL, and overall are one of the least experienced teams in the country, and to make matters worse, this team has dealt with covid issues, and this will be their first game. Liberty is a surprising 2-0 and FIU has yet to step on the field breaking in a new QB, and a lot of players missing key practice time due to covid. Make the play on Liberty.

The Kentucky Wildcats have been a long time doormat in the SEC, but things are changing. Kentucky has put together 4 straight winning seasons, and a 5th would be the most in over 40 years. They have won 3 or more conference games 4 straight seasons, the most in over 40 years as well. Kentucky has not beaten a team from the SEC West on the road since 2009. Kentucky has a very strong offensive line, and also the return of QB Terry Wilson, who led them to 10 wins in 2018, before tearing an ACL last year in game 2. The line is the place to watch and between offense and defense, Auburn lost 7 linemen. Kentucky will have a strong defense, and I think this game is a lot closer than it looks. Make the play on Kentucky.

It is becoming pretty clear that covid-19 will continue to have an influence on the 2020-21 NCAAF season. Last week LA Tech saw their game vs Baylor cancelled due to the fact that they had 38 covid cases. This is a team that has just 8 returning starters as it is, and with a challenging depth chart, they are going to be far behind. Even if many of the players return, they have missed a lot of practice time. Southern Miss had a horrific opener as they lost to South Alabama as a nearly 2 TD favorite. The result was Coach Jay Hopson resigned. He will be replaced by Scott Walden. Walden immediately made a statement of what to expect. The Golden Eagles will put their foot on the gas, and not take it off for 4 quarters. His offense will attack hard, and play lightning fast. He has a history of that as he was the coach of E. Texas Baptist Univ. and his team averaged 50ppg and totaled over 550 yards per game. That has a pretty good chance against a Tech team with a depleted roster, and little in the way of experience to begin with. Southern Miss has been rock solid at home off a loss where they are 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS. Like their situation here, make the play on S. Mississippi.

Georgia Tech had a tough year last season, as they transitioned out of the triple option. They now have a year under their belt, and a whole lot of experience. They went to Florida St. as a +13 point under dog, and won outright 16-13. They trailed 10-0 at the half, but anyone watching could see who the better team was. Tech drove to the Florida St. 40 on 4 drives, 3 of which became red-zone opportunities and they came away with 0 points. The Game was all Tech despite the final score as they doubled the Seminoles yards per play of 3.8 producing 7.6 of their own. C. Florida saw 10 players opt out this season due to covid-19, and Tech has a game under its belt, while UCF has not taken the field yet. I think if this game were later in the season, the line would look right, but not under this year's circumstances. I like Georgia Tech to win this one straight up, but will not press my luck as +7.5 looks like a great bet. Make the play on Georgia Tech.

The Florida St. Seminoles have been just 18-20 SU over the last 3 seasons. This is one of the worst stretches ever for this program. Georgia Tech enters off a horrible 3-9 season, but last year was a transitional year away from the option under new coach Geoff Collins. Mike Norvell is an upgrade, but I don't like backing a 1st year head coach in game one, especially this year with covid-19 eliminating all spring practices. There is a lot of talent, but new schemes on both sides of the ball, and little practice time, puts Florida St. behind early in the season. The Seminoles are now learning their 4th offense in 4 years. QB James Blackmon has put up some strong numbers but has thrown 22 INTs already in his career. The weak spot in the Florida St. offense is an OL that allowed 48 sacks a year ago. They have lost a lot of those players for less experience, so that is going to take time to come around. The defense ranked as one of the worst in the country, and they have a lot to prove in the secondary where they ranked 119th in the country. This is just too many points here, and I will make the play on Georgia Tech.

Notre Dame will be a member of the ACC in the strange year of covid-19. This has long been a team predicated on defense. Over the last 179 Irish games the under has prevailed 100-74-5 ATS, with just an average of 49 total points having been scored despite the average total being posted in their games having been 53.2. There is a long term bias on this team's posted totals. It may be attributable of the huge following this team has, and square bettors opting for the over the majority of the time. Once again I see that bias at work in the total here as I see 6-7 points worth of value. Notre Dame in its last 350 games has allowed 18.4ppg. that drops to 15.1ppg in game 1. Duke averaged a misleading 25ppg a year ago, but against the better defensive teams they were extremely limited, and managed just 7 vs ND. Former Clemson QB Chase Brice will be the Duke QB, but with limited practice time, and a strong defense, I'm not believing he will have a whole lot of success. This total is quite tainted in history, and as it stands now. Make the play on the under.

Nothing like opening the season with a 42-0 win as Army did. The Army bandwagon immediately filled up, and their game with UL Monroe which opened at -14.5 has soared to -22/-22.5. That is totally out of hand, and the books algorithms don't miss by 8+ points. The fact that Army won 10+ games for 2 straight years, and appear to be good again, has the public opinion of this team beyond expectations. The public is dismissing the 5-8 season from a year ago. The 5 wins came against 2 FCS teams, and UMass (1-11), Texas San Antonio (4-8)and Rice (3-9). Army has a new QB in Christian Anderson, and that usually means mistakes running the triple option. Army ran the ball 62 times but at just 5.6 yards per carry, which is not conducive for scoring 42 points, so the offensive numbers are somewhat misleading. They may improve upon that this week vs a UL Monroe team that was awful against the run a year ago, and will likely be equally as bad this year. Army had a 4-0 turnover advantage in that game, and another clean game by Anderson, and the high risk Army triple option is not likely, and neither is a +4 in turnovers. The opening line was pretty close to what I would have made it, but as most bettors base this week's bets on last week's results (perception), has forced the books to move this one way too far. I will make the play on Army in this one.

The Arkansas Red Wolves have a long history of being a very strong team at home, but a very weak one on the road. When it comes to playing outside the conference the numbers only get worse. Arkansas St. is 40-24 SU at home outside the conference, and over the same period of time they are 7-103-5 SU on the road. The average score of the games at home have been 31.7 to 21.6 on the road just 13.7 to 35.7. This has led to an abundance of games failing to get to the total, as the under is cashing just 27.2% of all games. One huge change in the Red Wolves offense is the loss of WR Omar Bayless and his 17 TDs and 1,653 yards. He averaged nearly 12 yards per target, and that simply will not be replaced. The Memphis defense should be better this year with 8 returning starters and the entire secondary. A high total like this in game 1 and the situation here tends to look inflated. Make the play on the under.

The NCAA Football season will truly get underway tonight. The South Alabama Jaguars finished 2-10 a year ago, so not a lot of people are taking a hard look at this team. There is a lot of changes from year to year, but one big hint came at the end of last season. The Jags averaged just 18.3ppg a year ago, including 11.4ppg vs division 1-A opponents prior to the last 4 games of the season. They averaged 26ppg over the last 4. So what changed? Desperate for a QB they inserted freshman Desmond Trotter. Trotter threw 8 TDs to just 2 INTs in the 4 games. He has 4 members of the OL returning along with 7 of the top 8 pass catchers. Jack Abrahms of S. Miss had a very good year, but was held back by his 15 INT's and lost 5 of his top 7 pass catchers. The biggest loss is All-CUSA WR Quez Watkins, who was drafted by the Eagles. The Eagles defense now has just 4 starters returning, with 2 players opting out. Overall, this game should be pretty competitive, and I like South Alabama to get the money in this one.

Tulane started the season 5-1 but finished 1-5. A lot of that had to do with scheduling as the Green Wave lost to UCF, Memphis, SMU, Navy, and Temple. Their 6th loss was to Auburn. They were up yo task against several elite teams. One thing the Green Wave has done is averaged 41.1ppg as a favorite in their last 8. S. Miss has a very good passing attack that averages 8.8 yards per attempt. See some value on the total here as AAV teams have seen Bowl games average over 63.1ppg all-time and the over has cashed 57% of the time. Make the play on the over.

The Nevada Wolfpack has been dealt a bad hand for their Bowl game. They lost 3 defensive players to suspension and 2 are DB`s further enhancing the mismatch already in place with a high octane Ohio U. passing attack. A 4th defensive starter will miss the 1st half and a 5th is questionable. While the weather is usually an issue in Boise, ID. in January it will not today as the temperature will be 50 degrees with light winds. Ohio St. duel threat QB Nathan O`Rourke is going to be difficult to handle, and with a lack of depth on defense, the Wolfpack could be wilting in the 4th quarter. Ohio also fits a 25-5 ATS Bowl situation based in part by their poor ATS mark this season. Make the play on Ohio, U.

The story at Indiana is a great one. Indiana has win 8 games for the 1st time since 1993, and the program has never won 9. That looks and sounds great but here is the Hoosiers reality. They did mot neat a single Bowl eligible team all season, and the combined record of their opponents in their 7 wins vs FBS teams is 31-66. They will be up against a lot more than that tonight with an equally motivated Tennessee team that started the season ugly at 1-4 but they proceeded to go 6-1 in the rugged SEC. Tennessee has the edge from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and with both teams motivated, look for the talent to win out. Make the play on Tennessee.

It was a very strong year for the Cincinnati Bearcats, but the ending to this point has been painful. They lost each of their last 2 games to Memphis and should be in an ornery mood for this one. the calling card for Cincinnati is defense and Boston College who ran the ball all season will have to replace A.J. Dillon and his 1,685 yards as he sits out to prepare for the NFL draft. BC is also missing fired coach as Rich Gunnell will take over the play-calling. The BC defense has been poor all season and without their best offensive player will find it tough to keep up vs a very strong Cincinnati defense. make the play on Cincinnati.

This game is from my super total system and the play is on the under.

Matt Rhule has now become an elite coach. he turned a pathetic Temple program around and has now transformed a Baylor program ridden with filth into a power. he has an incredible record getting his team prepared when his team is the weaker one in the fight. His coaching career shows 4 winning seasons and playing as a dog, in those 4 years, his team is 13-10 SU and 20-3 ATS. That becomes 13-7 SU and 19-1 ATS when not a dog of more than 14 points. His team has outscored opponents by 5.6 points per game to an average line of 6. Make the play on Baylor

The Oregon Ducks are coming off a big win vs Utah putting together perhaps their best game of the season. They have 2 losses coming against Auburn and Arizona St. Oregon played very well in the Auburn game and Utah game, their biggest physical tests of the season. They have a sure 1st round pick in the NFL draft at QB in Hebert. The Wisconsin defense recorded 4 shutouts in their first 6 games but took a step back when the competition got stiffer but is still very good. I think Oregon has the better "A" game and a better offense.  teams that come into a Bowl game off winning a Championship game vs a team losing a Championship game tend to excel as they are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS. The Pac-12 has struggled of late in Bowl games, but in this spot they have excelled:

game type = BG and conference in [P12 , P10] and month = 1 and line >= -6 and line 6 and o:wins < 13 and season > 1982 and oA(points) > 30

SU:19-5-0 (12.96, 79.2%)Teaser Records

ATS:22-2-0 (13.08, 91.7%)

Make the play on Oregon.

It has been a long time since Alabama has not played in the playoffs or BCS Championship. Bowls are a lot about motivation, and it is hard to see this Alabama team bringing a full tank to this game. They will be without 2 elite defenders that have decided to skip and get ready for the NFL draft. Anytime a team faces the Crimson Tide it is motivating all unto itself and I expect a big effort from a very good Michigan team. This Alabama defense is pretty good, but at the same time, it has allowed more points than any Alabama team since 2008 and will be missing their best 2 defenders. Michigan has a great "A" game which was seen in a blowout win vs Notre Dame and I fully expect to see it here. Make the play on Michigan.

There is a lot to unpack for this Bowl game. There are a lot of defections on both sides heading to the NFL that will not play. There are coaching changes deep into both staffs. What there is here is the reputation and pride that has driven Florida St. in Bowl games almost forever. This energy is tough to go against, so I won't, I will embrace it. 

game type = BG and team = FLST and o:WP < 91 and line >= -10

SU:18-4-1 (9.13, 81.8%)Teaser Records

ATS:20-3-0 (8.09, 87.0%)

Florida St. is the King of Bowl domination at 20-3 ATS as ling as they are not a 10 point favorite or more, and their opponent is not elite and has a winning percentage of less than .910. More recently they are 15-1 ATS in this spot, with the only ATS loss coning by 1/2 of a point. Make the play on Florida St.

The Kentucky ground game has devastated their last 3 opponents to the tune of 1,380 yards in their last 3 games. That is an average of 460 yards per contest. It might be a lot tougher in this one as with no threat in the passing game and against one of the best-run stop units in the country in Virginia Tech loading the box, yards aren't going to come easy. The bigger problem is if they get behind they have little to offer in the passing game. Tech has an elite passing game and should be able to move the chains effectively. Kentucky is in an awful Bowl situation which is 7-41 ATS, which is based in part on their recent ATS prowess. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

This game fits a situation I love. When a team gives up from 40 to 64 points in their last game before their Bowl and are from a P5 conference other than the SEC, they are 25-53 ATS (1-12 ATS lately). Make the play on Florida.

This is for a chance to play for the National Championship. If you look at these teams statistically they are pretty much a dead heat. If you go strictly by the eye test LSU has been playing lights out, and Oklahoma isn't scoring at the rate they were earlier in the season. each game provides a unique challenge, and there will be a lot more pressure on LSU here as a2 TD favorite to get it done. Oklahoma has lost key players to suspension and injury, but I don't think that will matter much. If there is a vulnerability to this LSU team it is a very good running QB. They struggled vs Ole Miss allowing 400+ rushing yards, and also against Texas. Alabama has a power running game as well and in those 3 games, the Tigers allowed a total of 123 points or 41ppg. Oklahoma has all of that and more with Jalen Hurts who was responsible for 50 TDs all by himself. Hurts not only passes for 11 yards per attempt, but he has also run for 1,255 yards and 18 TDs. There is speed and game-breakers all over the field. The Sooners also have a kicker that is 17-17 and has range beyond 50 yards. Edwards-Helaire is a big deal. he is the entire running game for the Tigers and he is hobbling some and not 100% and his status is questionable. The Sooners have been big dogs of 10 or more just 3 times since 2013 and have won 2 of them and covered them all including a 14 point win vs Alabama as a -16.5 point favorite. Despite facing top defensive teams in the 3 games, the Sooners scored 112 points or 37.3ppg. Those were much better defenses than LSU, by far. yes, Oklahoma has not scored nearly as well in their last 4 games, but the yards have been there (477 yds per game), against much better defenses than LSU. Just remember this. Since October 26, 1996, Oklahoma is 24-4 SU and 27-1 ATS if they score 30+ points as long as they are not a favorite of -3.5 points or more. The only loss was as a +3 dog in overtime, so they even out-played that line in regulation. Look at that straight-up number. That is with no games as a favorite of more than 3 and includes 5-0 ATS as a double-digit dog and 4-1 SU! Of course, there is no guarantee they will score 30 points, certainly loke their chances. Make the play on Oklahoma. 

A lot of could have beens for the Iowa St. Cyclones. this is a much better team than the 7-5 record would have you believe. They lost 1 point games vs Iowa, and Oklahoma, and a 2 point game to Baylor. The Baylor and Oklahoma losses were on the road. Their last 2 Bowl games resulted in a 1 point win and a 2 point loss. This team could easily be 10-2. Notre Dame does not do well in Bowl games as they are 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when they have had 8 or more wins. Cyclones are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 as a dog. Notre Dame fits a Bowl situation that is 7-41 ATS as well. make the play on Iowa St.

This is the best Memphis team ever at 12-1 and they earned a trip to the Cotton Bowl to face Penn St. They are facing some difficult circumstances however as Mike Norvell left for the Florida St. job and took DC Adam Fuller with him. There is no one left on the staff that has ever called plays before. They will also have a game plan devised by those never having made one on their own. They will face a very quick Penn St. team that has the best defense by far they will have seen all season. Penn St. was down by 4 at Ohio St. before losing by 11 in the Buckeyes closest call of the season. Memphis did not have nearly as challenging of a schedule as they were favored by 9.5 points or more in 9 of their games and did not play as an underdog all season. This is the caliber team they have not seen this year that does well in Bowl games (18-12 ATS). Make the play on Penn St.

Bowl teams that are 6-6 or worse and facing a team better than 6-6 to a line of +2 or more but less than +11 are:

game type = BG and WP 50 and line >= 2 and line

This game fits a horrible situation against USC:

game type = BG and ats streak >= 3 and ats streak < 10 and line > -7 and line < 5 and wins < 11 and month = 12

SU:34-69-0 (-4.79, 33.0%)Teaser Records

ATS:29-74-0 (-5.98, 28.2%)

play against a bowl team on an ats streak of 3-9 games of they are not a -7 point favorite or more or a dog of +5 points or more in December Bowls providing they have fewer than 11 wins.

make the play on Iowa.

Oklahoma St. Quarterback Spencer Sanders will play after sitting out the last 2 games with a thumb injury. make no mistake about motivation here, Mike Gundy comes to Bowl games to win. His team has won 3 straight Bowl games and 7 of 9 averaging 36.8ppg in the process, with all 9 games vs P5 opponents. While Texas A&M had an impossible schedule they failed to beat any team this season with a winning record. Oklahoma St. os 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a dog, and Gundy usually has a trick play or 2 for an added edge. make the play on Oklahoma St.

It has been a long way back for North Carolina who will be playing in a Bowl game for the first time since 2016. They also enter on a 3 game Bowl losing skid. They dusted off their former coach Mack Brown and he has already impacted a program by winning 6 games after the previous 2 years saw just 5 combined wins. His most recent stint in Texas saw him win 9 of his last 12 Bowls and he won his last 2 when at NC. That is a huge difference from Temple 1st year coach Rod Carey who went 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS in 6 Bowls at N. Illinois. (average loss 25ppg). This game will come down to the NC elite passing offense vs the Temple elite passing defense. the Temple defense really struggled against the 2 elite passing offenses they saw this season in SMU and Central Florida where they gave up 1,279 yards and 108 points. The Temple offense really struggles, and Temple has proven to struggle against elite passing attacks. Temple also facing a situation that is 29-74 ATS that in part plays against a Bowl team ob an extended ATS winning streak. Make the play on North Carolina.

This is a big deal for E. Michigan to play in a Bowl close to home in Detroit. Coach Chris Creighton has completely changed the culture at E. Michigan. His teams have won 25 games over the last 4 years something that took 11 years to do previously. The 4-year record shows 30-17-3 ATS. he will take on a Pittsburgh team that is 7-5 on the season but has been outscored by opponents. Pitt has no offense and averaged 20ppg but does have a solid defense. The main factor here is motivation. Pitt seemed to play the top teams on its schedule tough losing to Penn St. by just 7 and beating Central Florida. here is a pretty glaring stat. The Panthers have not won a game all season by more than 10 points and here they are as nearly a 2 TD favorite vs a motivated team. A December Bowl team that averages fewer than 38.5ppg and is a favorite of -8 or more is 32-57 ATS. There is also a 23-5 ATS situation that plays on certain Bowl teams with a poor ATS record. make the play on E. Michigan.

It is hard to see that Miami, Fla. has any motivational interest in this game. They finished the season a disappointing 6-6 despite the fact that the average line in their games has been as a -10 point favorite and this will be their 10th time as a favorite. They have never been a dog of more than a TD all season as well. A favorable schedule, and unfavorable results. They lost 3 games outright as a favorite of -10, -18, and -18.5, and won another by 5 points as a -29 point favorite. making things worse are a pair of defensive ends sitting out that combined for 9.5 sacks, and a LB that was 2nd on the team in tackles and made 12.5 tackles for a loss. They will also be without WR Jeff Thomas. LA Tech will be playing an hour from home, making the 1 hour trip due west in I-20 and will have the fans behind them. Tech lost to Texas in the opener 45-14 but the yards show 413-454 and J'mar Smith threw for 340 yards at 8.3 yards per attempt. Speaking of Smith, Tech has won 9 straight with him at QB, as 2 losses came while he served a 2 game suspension. A win here will gibe LA Tech 10 wins, a school record. This is the 6th straight Bowl appearance by LA Tech, and they have won the previous 5 and are now 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowls. They fit a Bowl situation that is 55-29 ATS as well. Motivated dog vs an unmotivated favorite here. Make the play on LA Tech.

High scoring teams tend to under-perform in Bowl games:

game type = BG and tA(points) >= 40.25 and total < 64 and season > 2007 and line

Once again the Boise St. Broncos have had a stellar season at 12-1. perhaps the storyline here is their former coach Chris Peterson will be coaching his last game for Washington. This just doesn't have the look of the typical Boise St. power. They have used 3 QB's this season and the schedule was ranked in the 80s this season. These teams are both pretty even from the line of scrimmage but Washington did so to a much more difficult schedule. The biggest edge may be motivation and special teams here for Washington. Washington is ranked top 15 in special teams, and Peterson has been known for successful trickery in Bowl games and his team will want to send him off with a win. make the play on Washington.

Butch Davis has turned the FIU program around as this will be the Panthers 3rd straight Bowl game and won for the 1st time last year. That win came without QB James Morgan, who has returned and has to be highly motivated to play in a Bowl after missing it last season. This is not only an experienced Bowl team they ranked in the top 20 of experienced teams coming into the season. They needed an impossible win over Miami, Fla. and got the huge upset. Arkansas St. is food offensively but the defense is one of the worst in the country after losing 4 defensive linemen starters to injury over the course of the season. looking at important stat matchups most favor FIU and they are a dog coming into this game, and I believe the wrong team is favored. The history of 6-6 Bowl teams that want to finish with a winning season has been 44-13 ATS in this spot. Play on FIU.

Florida Atlantic will be at home vs SMU in the Boca Raton Bowl. Both these teams love to put the ball in the air, but the weather may curtail what is supposed to be a shootout. The winds are going to have a lot to say about this one with sustained winds of 20 MPH and husts to over 30 during the game. Rain is in the forecast as well. Bowl games with a total of fewer than 73 points with a team that averages over 40pph have played under the total to a 59-31-1 ATS. make the play on the under.

The Kent St. Golden Flashes finished the season needing to win their last 3 games to qualify for a Bowl and did so. They are the only Bowl team to have done so. Kent St. took on an aggressive out of conference schedule against Auburn, Arizona St., and Wisconsin. This team has come a long way after going 2-10 each of the last 2 years. The other 9 Kent St. games saw then not lose by more than 7 points in any of them. Utah St. is led by QB Jordan Love who has entered the NFL draft bit will play in the Bowl game. Love had a horrible season as last year he threw 28 TDs to 5 INTs and this year 17 TDs to 16 INTs. A Bowl team that is .500 or less and facing a team that is better than .500 to a line of +2 to +10.5 is 44-13 ATS in their Bowl game. Make the play on Kent St.

The weather is supposed to be rainy here, but that won't impact these teams much as they both will be running the ball on nearly every down. Army has won 3 straight times in this series but things have changed. Ar,y has just 5 wins, 2 of which came vs FCS teams. Their stats vs FBS opponents are horrible. Navy has lost just twice and both losses cane vs ranked teams. there is one flaring stat about this rivalry. When the Army has been +5.5 points or more they are 0-18-1 SU and 7-12 ATS. When they have been posted at fewer than +5.5 points they are 15-5 SU and 9-10-1 ATS. Army has been 0-8 ATS in this series when posted from +7.5 to +14. make the play on Navy.

If Georgia didn't throw up a stinker vs South Carolina and came into this game 12-0 we would be looking at a much different line and prediction here by most. Everybody loves a high powered offense, and LSU has certainly been that and more. While the Georgia offense has been less than stellar of late, the LSU defense has allowed 37+ points to 4 teams. That in most cases does not typify a Championship team. They are going to have to score plenty to cover this game vs a Georgia defense that is the best they have seen. The closest thing to it was Auburn and the Bayou Bengals struggled to score just 23 points. Georgia allows just 10.4ppg so piling up the points in this one does not look to be the case by the LSU offense. Georgia can run the ball very well with a bevy of backs, not just Swift, and Fromm has 21 TDs to just 3 INTs on the season. A team in a Championship game that averages better than 47 points a game taking on a team allowing fewer than 21 a game are 3-5 SU to an average line of -12.6. LSU is generating 67% of the bets but the line has not moved. Make the play on Georgia.

The Baylor Bears have had a great season at 11-1. They had this Oklahoma team on the ropes with a 25 point lead and blew it. Everything that could have gone wrong for Oklahoma did. First, it was the only game of the year that WR Ceedee Lamb missed. Lamb is a game-changer as he has caught TD passes in 9 of 11 games, with all 9 coming from outside the red-zone. Oklahoma out-gained Baylor 525-307 in that game, which would be indicative of a 17-20 point win on the road. Oklahoma fumbled 5 times in the game and lost 2 but the 3 that they recovered altered the drives. They punted 1 time in the hame so the only way the offense was stopped was by themselves. QB Jaylen Hurts has been here before, as have most of the OU players. This will be a lot of pressure for Baylor as none of these kids have played in a game of this magnitude before, and the moment could be too big for them. What most don't see is the strides the OU defense has made allowing fewer than 300 yards a game in their last 3. The Sooners are now 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a single-digit favorite and are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Championship games as a favorite of fewer than 10 points, the only failed cover was by a single point. make the play on Oklahoma.

Utah certainly deserves to be in the playoff hunt. This is a well balanced very good offense, that also happens to have one of the best defenses in the country. This game is going to be played in the rain and wind, and Utah allows just 56 rushing yards a game, which will be crucial in this contest. Utah has also held all 12 opponents below their season average in total yards. Utah on average has held opponents to 170 fewer yards than their season average. If you look at the 8 common opponents these teams shared, Utah outscored these opponents by 25ppg and outgained them by well over 200 yards per game. Oregon was +16ppg and just +84 yards. Oregon is just 3-12 SU and ATS in their last 15 as a dog. Think there is a greater distance between these teams and Utah will not call off the dogs, as they look for style points. Make the play on Utah.

The Virginia Tech Hokies have steadily improved all season. The defense has become elite and they are off shutouts in each of their last 2 games. Hokies defense allowed 29.6ppg through their first 7 and 9.5ppg in their last 4. The offense has also taken off scoring 35.4ppg in their last 7. Virginia has a pretty good defense but the offense has held this team back all season against good defensive teams. The defense has also been shaky over the last 4 games. Tech fits a 59-31 ATS situation here as well. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

Wyoming is 6-4 on the season, but recent injuries have hit this team hard. They have lost a lot from an offense that wasn't very good, to begin with. QB Sean Chambers was lost with a knee injury. His replacement Tyler Vander Waal has dropped the passing yards per attempt from 7.6 to 5.7. That is significant, and Vander Waal has just 1 TD pass to 3 INTs. Where it hurts, even more, is in the running game. Chambers was the main cog rinning for 567 yards at 6.3 yards per carry and 10 TDs. Lost as well are running backs, Titus Swen and Trey Smith. The 2 combined for 111-564 at 5.2 per tote. The workload has been on Xazavian Valladay, but despite 869 yards, he has been the least effective at 4.8 per carry. he is also dealing with a knee issue. Colorado St. dealt with the loss of QB Collin Hill, but Patrick O'Brien has been equally effective. Colorado St. is 4-6 but winning the line of scrimmage as they average 69 more yards a game than their opponents, while despite the 6-4 record Wyoming is upside down generating -26 yards a game. Wyoming generally has a home-field advantage with the altitude, but Colorado St. is used to that playing at high altitude themselves. This one goes to the wire, and the points are big. Make the play on Colorado St.

It appears that UCLA is surging after starting the season 1-5 as the Bruins have won 3 straight games. I'm not in that camp. Looking at their last 6 opponents all in the P-12 they have collectively allowed around 30ppg. Utah is on a completely different level defensively. They allow 246 yards a game on the season and just 12.2ppg. The offense is not too shabby either at 446 yards per game. Overall the Utes are out-gaining opponents by 200 yards a contest. This game will be played in altitude which is another advantage for the Utes. This game also fits a situation that is 87-34 ATS. Make the play on Utah.

The Georgia St. Panthers have taken a big blow as QB Dan Ellington has been declared out with a knee injury vs Appalachian St. Ellington's 18 TDs to just 4 INTs will be missed as he will be replaced by QB Cornelious Brown. Brown is just 8-23 on the season for 3.5 yards per attempt with 0 TDs and 1 INT. he will be over-matched by a strong Appalachian St. defense. Moreover, the pretty good Georgia St. running game, featured the running ability of Ellington as well. The lack of a threat in the passing game is going to allow Appalachian St. to load up the box and stop the running game cold. The Panthers defense is awful so Appalachian St. should score often here, and should win this one big! Make the play on Appalachian St.

The Akron Zips have certainly lived up to their name this season at 0-9 SU and ATS. They have not found the end-zone in 4 straight games. The 4 games saw them going against poor defenses in 3 of them that stopped them cold and while E. Michigan isn't a food defensive team, they are considerably better than the 3 poor defenses that kept the Zips from crossing the goal line. This isn't as good of an EMU team as we have seen the past few years, but they are good enough, and at 4-5 on the season this is a mandatory win if they seek Nowl eligibility once again. Make the play on E. Michigan.

Boise St. will host 6-2 Wyoming in a crucial Mountain West tilt. Wyoming has really battled the injury bug, and none hurt more than losing QB Sean Chambers last week for the season. Chambers was not an accurate passer, but an effective one. Where he will be missed the most is the running game as he rushed for 567 yards on 90 carries. The Cowboys will also be without RB Trey Smith (44-227), and RB Titus Swen (67-337). That is 57% of the carries, and Chambers's running threat is what drove the running game as Wyoming is a weak passing team. Chambers will be replaced by Tyler Vander Waal who played a lot last year but completed just 48% of his passes 5 TDs and 4 INTs. he also was -63 yards rushing, so the rushing yards are going to be tough to come by as Boise St. puts 8-9 in the box and dares them to throw. Vander Waal is just 4-16 this season. Boise St. freshman QB Hank Bachmeier has been solid, throwing for 9.2 yards per attempt. The weak part of the Wyoming defense is against the pass. Additionally, Wyoming will be missing 2 starting tackles from the offensive line. Hard to see Wyoming scoring much at all here. Make the play on Boise St.

Saturday November 9th, 2019

LA-Lafayette is probably better than their 6-2 record. They have lost only to Miss St., and Appalachian St. They are above average on both sides of the ball, and net out at +1.1 yard per play vs opponents. Coastal Carolina has had stat-boosting games vs UMass and Norfolk St. where they piled up close to 1200 yards in the 2 games. Otherwise, this team is left with numbers suggesting they are well below average. Louisiana is a good road team as they are 45-25 ATS in road conference games in their last 70 including 18-5 ATS if they gained 475+ yards in their previous game. Tougher schedule, much better team. Make the play on Louisiana.

This game is part of my mega totals situation. make the play on the under.

This game fits the mega total system. Make the play on the under. (GASO/APPALACHIAN ST.)

These teams are coming in with completely opposite results from a week ago. UCLA was stomping Stanford while Arizona was crushed 21-3 vs Utah. I think these results have pushed some value toward Arizona St. The Bruins have won 2 games all season. Last week they faced a 3rd team QB vs Stanford and it showed. Their other good showing defensively on the season was a 20-17 loss to Arizona who was without Khalil Tate. remember against Oklahoma, Washington St., and Oregon St. the Bruins gave up 53.3ppg. This team is yielding 9 yards per pass attempt on the season. That is bad news bs Arizona St. who is averaging 8.4 and is well above average, and that will be the biggest mismatch on the field in this game. UCLA's lone other wins outside of Stanford and their 3rd team QB last week was to Washington St. They won by 4 points, despite allowing 720 yards! The reason they won is Washington St. turned the ball over 6 times. Arizona St. has a very strong defense, and the mediocre UCLA offense is not going to be able to move the ball here. Make the play on Arizona St. 

The Penn St. Nittany Lions have their eyes on a National Championship. They have opened the season at 7-0 and will take on Michigan St. Penn St. has dominated opponents this season as they have out-gained them 439-282. That is the big picture. There is another hidden picture that says this team may be over-rated by their 7-0 record and getting a lot of TV coverage. Penn St.'s 3 toughest games came vs Pitt, Iowa, and Michigan. All 3 have a strong defense just like Michigan St. Penn St. was out-gained by these 3 opponents by 1169-966 or on a per-game basis 390-322. While the season shows they out-gain opponents by 157 yards per game, the better defensive teams have out-gained then by 68 yards per game. Michigan St. was pulverized by Ohio St. and Wisconsin 72-10, but both those teams are better, and both were on the road. This one is with 2 weeks to prepare and no game next week either. A bye sandwich for Sparty. Those 3 opponents from above also ran on average 13 more plays a game because the Penn St. offense could not sustain drives. Penn St. is odd 2 straight punishing games while this is the only game for Michigan St. over a 27 day period. They will be fresh, focused, and home. Then this on Michigan St.:

Home dog of +6 or more  12-8 SU to avg line of +10.7 on average won by +2.7

ATS same situation 16-4.  I predict an upset. Make the play on Michigan St.

Make the play on Michigan St. 

This has become a huge rivalry game as Texas heads to play TCU. Texas comes in at 5-2 on the season, and for a team with National Title aspirations coming in, they have bot quite lived up to the billing. This team returned just 3 starters on defense and is in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per play, hardly the hallmark of a National Championship contender. The offense has had to bail them out of trouble all season, and last week allowed 48 points to Kansas. They might not be able to do the same vs TCU. The Frogs signature under Gary Paterson has been defense and his team allows just 281 yards a game and just 260 at home at 4.1 yards per play. TCU is out-gaining opponents by 160 yards per game, and Texas just 11. Texas has allowed 30 or more points to all but Rice and LA Tech (37.6ppg to the 5 P5 teams they have faced).  TCU prefers to run the ball and will certainly do that here to keep the Texas offensive possessions limited. The Horn's have allowed 225+ rushing yards to 3 of their last 4 opponents. They are off 2 physical games, and now face a very physical defense and with injuries piling up, trouble looms. make the play on TCU.

The Florida St. Seminoles have played a tough schedule to get to 3-3. This team despite the look is 1.2 yards a play better than the schedule of opponents they have played. They suffered 2 of their 3 losses to Boise St. and Clemson. Wake Forest lost for the 1st time this season to Louisville to fall to 5-1 on the season. That puts them in a huge letdown spot. Any team starting 5-0 or better and suffered their 1st loss of the season in their previous game by -14 points or fewer and face a team greater than .250 but less than.670 are 41-82-2 ATS. QB Jamie Newman left the last game with a shoulder injury, and may not play, but if he does he won't be 100%.

Virginia comes into this game with the better record 4-2 as North Carolina is 3-3. Don't be fooled by the records as North Carolina has played one of the nation's most difficult schedules. They have impressive wins over SC and Miami, Fla. They also lost by 1 point vs unbeaten Clemson, and 1 point to unbeaten Appalachian St. Their 3rd loss was by 6 points to 1 loss Wake Forest. This team is vastly improved since last season. Virginia Tech has lost to BC and Duke and 3 of their 4 wins were against Furman, Old Dominion, and FCS team Rhode Island. Despite the weak schedule, the Hokies are average on both sides of the ball. The NC defense and offense are both significantly above average despite the tough schedule. Tech has the better record coming into this game, but if they played the NC schedule they would likely be 1-5, and if NC played their schedule there is a very good chance they would be 6-0. Make the play on North Carolina.