This will be a tough game for South Florida as the Bulls played Alabama to a 17-3 game, and held the failing Tide offense to 17 points. I can't see this team coming off that game with a lot of energy and Rice is in one of the biggest spots I have in situational handicapping which is 87-32 ATS. Make the play on Rice.

Colorado and coach Prime have become quite the story this season. Colorado won just one game a year ago but coach Prime is off to a 3-0 start after surviving last week vs Colorado St. That win came with a price as Colorado lost their most valuable player in Travis Hunter. Hunter is their best DB and best WR. Sanders at QB has exceeded expectations, especially since he has faced more pressure than any other QB in the FBS this season. I think that goes up in this game and being short his best receiver will make it tougher as they can't run the ball at all.  Games like this are won in the trenches and that is where Colorado is lacking depth and talent, and they will be exposed big here. Make the play on Oregon.

Since the start of the 2008 season under Nick Saban the Tide has lost 5 home games, and never 2 in the same season. Here we are in game 4 and Alabama is certainly in danger of losing for a 2nd time already this season. Jalen Milroe should be starting and is. He made some costly mistakes vs Texas, and Saban wanted to see what his other 2 QBs could do, and it wasn't much. So after Saban had seen that Milroe may not be ready for the big moment, he yanked him, and is now going back because he has no one else. Ole Miss through 3 games has been better than Alabama, and Alabama has other issues, the defense is good, but not as good as it has been or needs to be. Texas scored 34 points on 460 yards at Alabama and the Ole Miss offense has been better than Texas so far. The Ole Miss defense has been a yard better than their opponent, so they will not make it easy on Alabama. I think Ole Miss could win this one outright. I like Ole Miss. (I am putting a half unit on the money line with Ole Miss as well, but I am not making it an official pick.) Take Ole Miss plus the points.

The Cincinnati defense has a reputation and while they are allowing fewer than 22ppg, the number show a different story. The defense allows more yards per ply that the average of their schedule of opponents so far. Oklahoma once again has a huge offense that is averaging nearly 56ppg, and they will move the ball effectively against Cincinnati. The offense is above average and they will move the ball vs. Oklahoma as well. This total has dropped 3/3.5 points from the opener and I think the value is building with the mover for a higher scoring games. This game also fits a total situation that is 138-87 ATS. Make the play over the total.

Coastal Carolina never won more than 5 games before Grayson McCall arrived to play QB. He has better numbers over the 3 years than almost every QB. He has thrown 81 TD passes with just 10 INTs in his career. I think the concerns about him playing in a new system isn't real. He has played just 3 games and 1 was vs. UCLA. Take those numbers out and it looks more like the last 3 years. Georgia St. is 3-0 but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country. That being said they have been a below average team defending these bad teams. Things are going to change dramatically tonight. The Chanicleers have had a good enough defense to allow their offense to keep a distance from their opponents. I like Coastal Carolina in this one.

In addition to a 5.2 difference I get on this total for line value, this game also fits a total situation which is 109-68 ATS. Make the play under the total.

I think this is a great spot for Ohio St. The QB controversy has ended. Kyle McCord was named the QB for the rest of the season, and the numbers dictate why. McCord averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt in 2 games this season and Devin Brown just a mediocre 5.1. This should really help the Ohio St. offense get on track, and they have the perfect team to do it against in Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers have an awful defense that allows over 460 yards per game against 2 horrible offenses. I don't expect the Western Kentucky offense to move the ball at all here as Ohio St. has a strong defense. Look for Ohio St. to win this one by a huge margin.

Oregon St. has opened the season at 2-0 with the scoring margin in the 2 games at 73. This gives bettors a false impression of their level of play as they played a pair of horrible teams. I think there will be a big difference against San Diego St. The Aztecs since the start of the 2015 season has allowed fewer than 20 points per game. That cover 105 games. I don't think we will see big numbers from Oregon St. here. San Diego QB Jalen Mayden has not been the same this season. He is working in a new offense, and his numbers are much worse than a year ago. I think there is a good chance the San Diego St. defense holds down the Beavers as they continue to struggle to score themselves. Make the play under the total.

The North Carolina is led by Drake May and he has completed over 73% of his passes on the season. That has been complimented with a running game generating 6.5 yards a carry. North Carolina has a strong pass defense as does Minnesota, but North Carolina has played a much tougher schedule to this point. This will be the first offense this Minnesota has seen this year that is balanced and has speed. Minnesota has not run well yet, and Carolina has defended the air. Too many advantages here to let go. Make the play on North Carolina.

Missouri Coach Eliah Drinkwitz is running out of time in Missouri. He has yet to post a winning record in his 4 years. The good news is his Missouri team is off to a 2-0 start to the season. They may have a chip on their shoulder as they lost at Kansas St. 40-12 last year. Kansas St. is a top 20 team on offense and defense and has started 2-0. When you have a game between a pair of 2-0 teams and there is a home dog involved, that home dog is 15-16 SU and 19-12 ATS as long as they are a dog of fewer than 6 points. Home dogs from 3.5 to 10 in a game where both teams have outrushed their opponents by 50 or more yards a game on average, are 31-8 ATS. Make the play on Missouri.

The California Bears under Justin Wilcox have always been starved for offense. They have not averaged as many as 24ppg in any of the last 5 seasons. They have had to rely on good defenses to stay in games. Their fans have to be excited by what they saw vs North Texas. The Bears threw for 312 yards, mostly by a backup QB. They also ran for 357 yards giving them a total of 669 total yards. Auburn has not been able to defend the run and Cal has one of the best backs in the country in Jadyn Ott. He picked up close to 200 yards in game 1. It was shocking that one of the worst teams in the country, UMass, ran for 7.2 yards per carry last week. Then there is Coach Wilcox who has been lethal at Cal as an underdog. He will be in the best part of that this week vs Auburn. Wilcox has led his team to a 16-3 ATS mark when posted as a dog from 5 to 15. Make the play on Cal.

Washington was in need of a QB, and went out and got Cameron Ward.Many questioned the choice, as Ward played football at Incarnate Word. Would he be up for the challenge? Ward was succeeding all over the field, and went 37-49 and over 450 yards. They beat Colorado St. 50-24. QB Tanner Mordecai was awful last week for Wisconsin. The Wisconsin defense looked vulnerable as well. I think these teams are within a FG of each other, and the Cougars are also at home. Make the play on Washington St.

It is hard to understand just how good Chris Creighton has done at Eastern Michigan. This team had not been to a Bowl Game since 1987, and did not have winning record since 1995.His team is always prepared and that has left him a 33-12-3 ATS record as a dog of under 38. His team as a road dog of fewer than 24 points his team is a sizzling 23-4-1 ATS.Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

This is mostly predicated on my 2nd strongest totals situation for college football. It is 46-8 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.

This is mostly predicated on my 2nd strongest totals situation for college football. It is 46-8 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.

Northwestern had a very difficult summer. The program was riddled with scandals, and almost everything you read about them is negative. What they do have is a solid defense, and a lot of public against them with all the negative news. I think there will be line value on Northwestern early in the season at least, despite last week vs, Rutgers. UTEP is not exactly a thriving program. This team is 18-53 since the start of the 2017 season. Since the start of the 2017 season they have played 6 schools from the P5 and are 0-6. They have faced a team from the P5 41 times and are 0-41 SU! I like Northwestern in this one.

The Georgia Bull Dogs are 33-1 SU in their last 34 games. That streak won`t end on Saturday, but this is a big number. Ball St. certainly isn`t near Georgia`s level. The offense behind a new QB was only up 17-0 at the half. They picked it up some in the 2nd half but it looks like this is not a team that has become cohesive yet. Ball St. has enough to not be totally embarrassed. This has never been a good spot to back Kirby Smart teams as huge chalk. He seldom runs up the score for the monster sized wins. His team`s at Georgia since he arrived are 0-9 ATS when laying 38 or more points. Make the play on Ball St.

Dabo Swinney took over the program at Clemson in 2008. Once he had his recruited players in 2011 the Tigers have won 10 or more games every season since. His team was at the pinnacle of success from 2015-2020 where they went 79-7. While this program is still strong, since the start of the 2021 season, they have lost almost as many games (6), as their golden period. I think this is a good team, but the elite status is not present as it was. They have lost 3 games in each of the past 2 seasons for the first time since 2011. They have suffered 3 double-digit losses the last 2 years, and have had 8 wins of 6 or fewer points, and 8 single possession wins the past 2 years. (10 wins by 13 or fewer points, while they had just 7 such wins in the previous 4 years. their scoring margin has dipped significantly over the past 2 seasons. Duke is not a big-time football program, but they are off a 9-4 season with the 4 losses coming by 8,3,2,3 points. Cade Klubnik has yet to prove himself at QB. Overall, this is still a good team, but this is a reputation line, and the value is on Duke. Duke brought in 3 experienced defensive backs through the portal, and with 8 returning starters the defense should be better. Duke had an above average offense a year ago and QB Riley Leonard has all his backs and receivers returning. Duke was 5-1 ATS last season as a dog, with the only loss by 1/2 a point, and 3 of those were outright wins. Make the play on Duke.

Texas Tech was better than their record a year ago, and the offense could be ready to explode this season. The Red Raiders caught a bad break a year ago when starting QB Tyler Shough was injured in the very first game of the season. He came back to play well in the last 5 games. This season he is healthy and Texas Tech has 10 returning starters on offense, I look for a huge upgrade in the Tech offense this season. The Tech defense is expected to be similar to last year which was slightly better than average. Wyoming had a bad offense last season and will start this year without Dawaiian McNeeley out for the season with a torn ACL, and backup running back Harrison Waylee will miss the first few games. The Cowboy passing attack was brutal last season, and shouldn`t be much better this season. A road favorite of -14 to -21 points in a season opener covers about 60% of the time. I like Texas Tech.

G.J. Kinne will take over the program at Texas St. this season. He favors an uptempo offense but does he have the tools to run it? Transfer quarterbacks Malik Hornsby (Arkansas) and TJ Finley (Auburn), are going to both probably get some time, but neither has a track record of success when they have been on the field, and I don`t see this offense clicking, at least early. Baylor doesn`t have more than an average offense. Baylor has a better running game than a passing attack and I think they put the ball on the ground a lot here, but it will be challenging early with an offensive line that has little experience. I don`t see a lot of explosiveness on either side, and the defenses will both be better than the offenses they are facing. When that is the case and the total is on the high side in a season opener a lower-scoring game is probable. Make the play under the total.

G.J. Kinne will take over the program at Texas St. this season. He favors an uptempo offense but does he have the tools to run it? Transfer quarterbacks Malik Hornsby (Arkansas) and TJ Finley (Auburn), are going to both probably get some time, but neither has a track record of success when they have been on the field, and I don`t see this offense clicking, at least early. Baylor doesn`t have more than an average offense. Baylor has a better running game than a passing attack and I think they put the ball on the ground a lot here, but it will be challenging early with an offensive line that has little experience. I don`t see a lot of explosiveness on either side, and the defenses will both be better than the offenses they are facing. When that is the case and the total is on the high side in a season opener a lower-scoring game is probable. Make the play under the total.

This should be an interesting season for Wisconsin. The Badgers have been a running team for a long time, but they have a new offensive coordinator in Phil Longo. Longo is going to veer away from the heavy running attack we have seen in Wisconsin, to a much more balanced attack. Longo was successful in doing just that at North Carolina. He will have Tanner Mordecai running the offense, who was successful at SMU. He will have a talented receiving group to spread the ball around, and with RB Braelon Allen running the ball the Badger offense should be one of the top units in the country. Luke Fickell will head the coaching staff and he built a strong team at Cincinnati. The Wisconsin defense is always rock solid. The Badgers have 18 returning starters. Buffalo finished 7-6 last year and won their Bowl game, but the numbers don`t show a 7-6 team. They ran 12 more plays a game than their opponent, and had a positive turnover advantage, and were out-gained by over a yard per contest. This game fits a game 1 situation that is in part based on big home favorites that are 107-69 ATS. Make the play on Wisconsin.

I would not want to be Arkansas St. facing this Oklahoma team in their season opener on the road. Moreover, Butch Jones's team has just 11 returning starters, and that does not include the QB. Oklahoma had a total disaster last year and finished 6-7. You have to go back 25 years to find an Oklahoma team with fewer wins. I think there is value in Oklahoma early this season after last year's debacle. I will lean on this. Game 1 home favorites playing to a total of fewer than 60 points are 99-68-2 ATS. Make the play on Oklahoma.

It is the improbable vs the season long favorite. TCU lost just 1 game this season, and it was a surprise that they got by Michigan. It took a lot of things going wrong for Michigan, who turned the ball over 3 times, and had a pair of pick-6's that gave TCU 14 points. Michigan played their sloppiest game of the season, and still had a chance down the stretch, but could not overcome the lost possessions and points that ensued. You can play the "what if" game and look at the result if that didn't happen along with a Michigan turnover inside the TCU 10. Michigan would have won the game by a considerable margin. The Georgia defense appears to be exposed allowing 71 total points in their last 2 games. Everyone forgets this same Georgia defense held Oregon to 3 points. The Ducks averaged over 40 points per game in all their other games. They also held Tennessee to 13 points, a team that averaged 46 and scored 31 or more points in every other game. My point is there is a capacity for this Georgia team to completely shutdown the TCU offense, the same doesn't apply on the other side. Recency bias is well noted by bettors and see this as the same challenge as Michigan. Remember without 2 pick-6's and a fumble near the end-zone, Michigan covers this line vs Michigan. TCU has the 70th rated run defense and Georgia is the best at running and defending the run, and is #2 in the red-zone on defense. TCU allows over 26ppg so if the stout Georgia defense plays their game, it will be a long night for TCU. There is also a situation that plays against a team from week 12 on that just beat an undefeated team in their last game, and they are 91-120 ATS in their next game. (that is also 18-27 ATS if it is a playoff game, a Bowl Game, or a Championship game. TCU star running back has a sprained MCL and his status is unclear, but will be hampered at the least. Remember last year in the SEC Championship game Georgia game up 41 to Alabama and lost big, only to come back and hold a Heisman Trophy QB to 18 points. Remember, this is just 1 game, and as we saw vs Michigan, anything can happen. Handicapping is about what is likely to happen, and this is how I see this game. The TCU bandwagon is overflowing and it has moved the line down. I like Georgia to repeat and get the cover in a convincing win. Make the play on Georgia.

This should be an exciting Rose Bowl as Penn St. takes on Utah. The missing players for this game turns up to be a wash. Penn St. is playing their best football of the season, and if you look at the stats they have a better yards per play differential than Utah, as well as a tougher schedule. Utah likes to run the ball as they average 40 rushes per game, but Penn St. allows just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt and will control the Utah running game. The Utah defense is vulnerable through the air, and I look for Penn St. to attack downfield. The Penn St. pass defense is allowing just a 52% completion rate, and if Utah can't run the ball they will struggle here. This game also applies to a 45-12 ATS January Bowl situation, that favors the Nitany Lions. Make the play on Penn St.

This has been the most exciting season in Tulane football in memory. The Green Wave comes in at 11-2 and is also 11-2 ATS. That isn't as good news as it sounds as a Bowl team that comes into their game on a 3 or more game ATS winning streak are just 121-154-2 ATS. USC QB Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy and he was initially slated to be out, but he has declared himself ready to play and I like USC if he is indeed the QB (check injury report). His coach says he will start without restrictions and he practiced well all week. The fact that he wants to and is going to play indicates to me that USC is showing up here, and they are much better than Tulane. Make the play on USC.

Purdue has taken a lot of opt-out hits. They will be without their QB, TE, and a WR, as well as a couple more starters. This game is more about a strong January Bowl total situation that is 17-2 ATS. Make the play under the total.

The news of Mike Leach passing was sad. He was an innovative offensive genius, and he changed the game. I think Miss St. will be dedicating this game to him, and whatever their "A" game is we will see it today. Illinois has a poor offense which is likely to suffer the impact of losing RB Chase Brown and his 1,600+ plus yards. Defensively the Illini have been rock solid, however, they will be missing their 2 CB's for this one, and their defensive coordinator left for Purdue. This game has set up perfectly for Miss St. Make the play on Miss St.

Both of these teams were better defensively than they are offensively, and the balance of the opt outs seem to enhance that. The bigger reason is a bowl total situation that is 56-19 ATS. Make the play under the total.

Georgia is looking to become just the 4th team in the Championship era to win two consecutive Championships. It is going to be strength against strength when Ohio St. has the ball. The Ohio St. offensive line allowed just 8 sacks all season. While Georgia is a top defensive team, I saw a weakness at times, allowing receivers to get behind them. Ohio St. has a top QB in CJ Stroud, and a pair of receivers with over 1000 yards. I also think that the Georgia WRs are not up to the level they have been at in the past. Their best receiver is McConkey and he is questionable for this game. Ohio st. is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games posted as a dog, and I think the loss to Michigan has pushed this line toward Georgia. This should be a 3/3.5 point line, so I see line value and handicapping value in favor of the Buckeyes here. Make the play on Ohio St.

Is this the year that Michigan finally gets over the top, and wins a National Championship? It starts against TCU. TCU had several games that could have gone either way, but somehow manaaged to pull them all out, and here they are playing for a Championship. Michigan is the most physical team TCU will face all season. The offensive line is the most talented in the country, and the offense has averaged over 40ppg. The defense was rock solid a year ago, but is even better this season, and they can run or pass, but tends to bully the opponent with an over-powering running game. These playoff games tend to go as you would expect. The last 14 playoff semi-final games have been decided by 14 or more points since 2015. Eight of those eleven games came with a greater than 7 point favorite and all 6 since 2018 have been decided by 14+ points, I see a similar result here and will make the play on Michigan.

There will be a sense of revenge in this game. These teams met last Bowl season in the Citrus Bowl and Kentucky won 20-17 with a late TD. Iowa is a horrible offense, so starting a 3rd string red shirt freshman QB is going to be difficult to downgrade an offense already ranked 130. It may actually surprise in a positive way. It is the Iowa defense that should rule the day. Iowa allowed just 14.4ppg. If you take out games vs ultra elite offensive teams Michigan, and Ohio St. they allowed 9.2ppg! So the offense won't need to do a whole lot here. Kentucky is without their QB and top RB, and allowed 42 sacks on the season. I would not be surprised if Iowa scores on a defensive TD here. There is a lot of hidden value here as well. Iowa holds a significant special teams edge, and in a game with a total of 31, field position is huge. Iowa in this one.

This is just the second time Alabama will not be in the 4 team playoff. Many may question the motivation here, but with Young and Anderson the leaders on both sides of the ball opting in, it sets the tone for the Tide to show up big. The Alabama defense ranks 4th holding opponents to 90 yards per game below their average. Kansas St. had a great year, but I also think this is the biggest challenge they will face this season, and the best defense by far. The situation here compliments my thoughts, as the Tide fits a 83-39 ATS Bowl situation. Make the play on Alabama.

This game fits a Bowl situation that plays under on certain teams that are averaging over 40 points per game, and it is 26-5 ATS. Make the play under the total.

My top Bowl total situation which is 36-7 ATS is active for this game, and the play is under the total.

These teams both have significant opt outs on offense, and when you combine that with a Bowl total situation that is a rather potent 47-16 ATS, my play in this one is on the under.

Wyoming is in a lot of trouble here. The Cowboy's will be without their top 4 running backs. This is a team that runs 37 times a game, and passes just 23. They are an above average running team, but a significantly below average passing team. QB Peasley threw just 9 TDs all season to 8 INTs. They also lose their top defensive player and both CB's. Ohio. U. improved on defense tremendously as the year went on. They allowed 561 yards per game in their first 6 and just 331 in their last 7. They are the better team here, especially with all the opt-outs by Wyoming. Make the play on Ohio, U.

This will be my strongest Bowl selection of the season, and my Bowl Game of the Year! Pittsburgh has the most significant Bowl opt-outs of any team. They will be without starting QB Slovis, and RB Israel Abanikanda who rushed for 1,431 yards and 20 TDs, along with 2 offensive lineman, all 4 team captains, and at least 5 defensive starters, are all out. UCLA who is the better team to begin with, is virtually in tact, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson has taken all the snaps in practice. This is also a big deal for the players on UCLA. They can tie a school record for wins in a season at 10 with a win here, and last season they all missed out on their Bowl game as it was cancelled due to Covid-19. The Pitt defense was very good, but they will be missing their top 2 tacklers, and 3 other significant starters. UCLA is in tact, and all in for this game, and the Pitt team that got here this season, for the most part, won't be in the building. This will also be challenging because to replace the replacement starters, the players getting time off the bench are 3rd on the depth chart. My NCAAF BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR is on UCLA!

Maryland is down a lot of offensive players in this game, and have 3 significant WR's out, as well as their TE. These players have combined for 118 catches and over 1,400 yards, with 9 TDs. NC State is down to a 4th string QB, mising a WR, their starting center, and offensive coordinator. NC Sate has top defenders in tack, as does Maryland. This game will likely feature a lot of running. This game also fits a bowl total situation that is 74-49 ATS. Make the play under the total.

The big news here is Texas RB Bijan Johnson has opted out along with his backup Roschon Johnson. The Horns will also be without one of their best defenders in LB DeMarvian Overshown.Quietly Washington QB Michael Pennix the nations leading passer will play and announced his return to Washington next year. The Huskies have had just 1 season with 11 or more wins since 2000, so this is a big deal for this team. Washington was just a dog once all season at Oregon as a 12 point dog and won out-right. Texas under-played their stats all-season, and this is not where they thought they would end up. The Huskies have a pair of 1000 yard receivers and the OL is one of the best in the nation allowing 7 sacks all season, and the defense recorded 35 sacks. Texas QB Ewers has been up and down all season, and he will have to do a whole lot more without his best 2 running backs. Ewers completed just 56% of his passes. Washington fits a 50-27 ATS Bowl situation as well. Make the play on Washington.

This was a disappointing year for Oklahoma at 6-6. They barely qualified for a Bowl game, and this is a team used to playing for Championships. The 6 wins were the fewest since 1998. The Sooners allowed 41 or more points in 5 of their 9 Big-12 games. They will be without RB Gray who opted out, and with that he takes 1,364 yards and 11 TDs. They are also without both tackles on the OL. Oklahoma gave up just shy of 500 yards per game in Big-12 play, and allowed over 200 rushing yards. Florida St. is vastly under the radar. They average 2 yards per play better than their opponents on the season. The defense is strong and held opponents to 70 yards per game below their average. Down 2 on the OL and a Florida St. team that had 34 sacks, Gabriel will be under siege all game. Florida St. could get to 10 wins for the first time since 2016, and have no significant opt outs, which tells me they are coming for this game. Make the play on Florida St.

What a disappointing finish for Syracuse that opened 6-0, but finished 7-5. This is a favorable match up for Minnesota. Syracuse was beaten on the ground in their 5 game losing streak allowing 230 rushing yards a game, and Minnesota behind Ibrahim who accounted for 19 TD's. Minnesota had a 3 game losing streak, but QB Morgan was injured and Ibrahim missed a game. Syracuse will play this game without 3 All ACC defensive backs, and RB Tucker, and their LT. Minnesota held 8 opponents to under 300 total yards, and allowed just 13.3ppg on the season and just 9ppg in their last 5. I think this game is uncontested. Make the play on Minnesota.

This game stinks from the standpoint that Ole Miss is a much better team than Texas Tech. It has "sucker bet" written all over it. Ole Miss got off to a 7-0 start to a very kind schedule. During those 7 games they averaged 40.8ppg and allowed just 17.3, with a winning margin of +23.5ppg. Down the stretch Ole Miss went 1-4 and averaged 24.8ppg and allowed 33.8ppg, or a margin of -9ppg. That is a swing of -32.5ppg. Texas Tech never seemed to be healthy at QB, but Tyler Shough is healthy and will likely start. He has passed for 7.7 yards per attempt which is the best of the 3 QB's that have all thrown 125 passes or more this season. He is also the best runner of the 3. This game also fits a situation that is 47-14 ATS in Bowl games. Make the play on Texas Tech.

December favorites with a total of 66.5 points or higher and not favored by 12 or more points are 33-16 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

These games always look like blow out winners to the heavy chalk. North Carolina has had a lot of opt outs. They still have Drake Maye at QB and I think the line here has been inflated too much. Oregon was sitting at 8-1 with eyes on making the 4-team playoff but dropped 2 of their final 3 games, so motivation here may be called into question. December Bowl games with a line of +10.5 to +18.5 are 49-28 ATS. Make the play on North Carolina.

This was an unexpected season at Kansas as the Jayhawks are excited to be participating in their first Bowl game since 2008. Arkansas comes limping into this Bowl game at 1-3 in their lst 4 and was abused by Ole Miss who put up over 700 yards on the Hog`s defense. They followed that up by allowing close to 500 yards vs a medicore Missouri offense. They will also be missing their center, 2 linebackers, and a starting safety. Their defensive coordinator Barry Odom is off to UNLV. I don`t see Arkansas showing up here, while Kansas should be sky high. This game also fits a 87-51 ATS situation on the Jayhawks. Make the play on Kansas.

The Central Florida Knights have played in some big Bowl games in recent years, but this will not be one of them. I question their motivation here. Duke Coach Mike Elko has done a great job at Duke in his first year, as Duke was forecast to finish last in the ACC. Redshirt freshman QB Riley Leonard had a lot to do with that throwing 20 TD passes to just 6 INT's. Leonard also led the Blue Devils in rushing (11 TDs). Central Florid has had multiple opt-outs and QB John Rhys-Plumlee is not 100%. Make the play on Duke.

Oklahoma St. has seen a lot of players opt out of this game and head to the portal, or to prepare for the NFL draft, or are injured. They will be without their starting QB, and have 10 players in the transfer portal, several of which are key contributors. The Olahoma St. offense bogged down in the 2nd half of the season as the competition ramped up. The Cowboys managed to average 13.6ppg in their last 5, and with their QB out and star running back Dominic Richardson off to Baylor, can't see that changing especially against a strong defensive team in Wisconsin. Wisconsin will be without its QB as well, but the Badgers have always been a strong running team and I think they are going to pound the rock in this one with success. Make the play on Wisconsin.

Oklahoma St. has averaged 13.6ppg in their last 5 games, while Wisconsin is averaging 16ppg in their last 4. Both teams have backup QB's starting, and this game fits a bowl situation that is 66-43 ATS to the under. Mke the play on the under.

Since the start of the 2020 season Coastal Carolina is 31-6. However half of those 6 losses have come in their last 6 games. Those 3 losses shows the weakness of this year's team as their opponents scored 45 points or more in all of them. The offense has not been delivering either as the Chanticleers have averaged under 24ppg in their last 7 contests. They are a 9-3 team that has out-gained their opponent by 1 yard per game. The defense is worse than the offense is good. Coastal Carolina has had a few starters opt out as well. Grayson McCall will start for them at QB, but he is heading for the transfer portal and has dealt with injuries late in the season. East Carolina has a better offense and a better defense, and a pretty good Qb of their own in Holton Alhers. I like East Carolina in this one.

Utah St. has not been very good from the line of scrimmage this season. The Aggies were almost a yard worse in yards per play margin than their opponents and ranked 112th in that department. They were actually out-scored by over a TD a game this season. They will not have their best player on offense in RB Calvin Tyler wh rushed for over 1,000 yards on the season. The Memphis Tigers were in just about every game they played this season. Their 5 losses show 4 of them were one-possession games. They did not win a 1 possession game all season at 0-4. The Aggies went 4-0 in one-possession games so you can see where these teams could be a lot more distant from each other. If Memphis just won half of them they would be 9-3. Make the play on Memphis.

Both Georgia Southern and Buffalo limped their way into a Bowl game as each team enters at 6-6 for the season. neither team has defended well and the Buffalo offense is well below average as well. The biggest edge in this game belongs to Georgia Southern. Clay Helton came in and abandoned the triple-option, and has an offense that generates 469 yards per contest. Kyle Vantrease the Georgia Southern Qb spent most of his college career in Buffalo, so you would have to think he is primed for this meeting. I like Georgia Southern in this one.

Bowling Green will be playing in their first Bowl game since 2016. This team has made a lot of progress over the last few years. The Falcons were 0-12 in 2020, and last year improved to 4 wins. This year they brought back 18 starters and had a winning record in the MAC at 5-3. This team can really get after the QB as they finished 9th in the nation in sacks with 37. They have a much better upside than N. Mexico St. as they have 3 outright upsets on the season. New Mexico St. is also 6-6 and had 2 wins vs FCS teams, and averaged just 19.1ppg vs FBS competition. The Aggies had the 131st ranked schedule, so a lot of cream puffs to get here. I think Bowling Green is hnds down better and it should show in this contest. This game is just over 100 miles from the Bowling Green campus, so it should be more like a home game. Make the play on Bowling Green.

The biggest upset of the season was Middle Tennessee's win at Miami. They were a 25.5 point dog going into that game. For some reason after that magic moment, the Blue Raiders just had nothing in the tank and finished their last 8 games at 2-6 ATS. Middle Tennessee was -240 yards per game against winning teams. San Diego St. finished the season as a much improved team as they logged a 5-2 record down the stretch. This team defends well every year and allowed just 20ppg.A lot of distance between these teams. I will lay the points and play on San Diego St.

This will be the 7th straight Bowl for Wake Forest. Wake Forest started the season 3-0 but lost a heart breaker in OT to Clemson, and then got a huge win over Florida St. Things went downhill from their as they lost 4 of their last 5 games to finish 7-5. Missouri had a struggle offensively, but the defense held 6 opponents to fewer than 300 total yards, and they won their last 2 to become Bowl eligible. Wake's last 4 losses all came as a favorite, and with rumors floating that QB Sam Hartman is heading to the transfer portal after this game, I like Missouri here.

Louisiana comes into this game as a marginal Bowl qualifier at 6-6. A lot of these marginal Bowl qualifiers tend to do very well in Bowl games. The opponent usually isn't very motivated facing them, and they are playing for a winning season. This is close to a home game for Louisiana and a team that is .500 or worse in a Bowl game and playing a team better than .500 are 88-66 ATS. Bowl games are more situational than regular season games. Bowl teams that are 6-6 are 93-68 ATS in December Bowls. Make the play on Louisiana.

Air Force will take on Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl, played in Fort Worth, TX. This isn't a typical day in Fort Worth as the temperatures will start out in the 40s, but are projected to fall to 18 by 4PM. Winds will be gusting up to 40 MPH, with wind chills at or below zero. The Air Force run defense has allowed fewer than 200 rushing yards combined in their last 4 games. This game is going under the total.

Since a huge upset of Arkansas the Liberty Flames have flamed out. They closed the season with 3 straight losses as a double-digit favorite, and head to this Bowl game fitting a bowl situation that is 107-155 ATS. Meanwhile Toledo comes in fitting a strong 21-4 ATS situation. Make the play on Toledo.

This game fits a total situation that is 36-13 to the under in Bowl games. Make the play under the total.

Chris Creighton has certainly elevated the program at Eastern Michigan. His team won 8 games this season. That is the best mark since 1987 or 35 years ago. They are 0-4 in Bowl games, so this is an important game, and Eastern Michigan is now 35-10-1 ATS as a dog. Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

The UConn Huskies fit a bowl situation that plays on 6-6 teams in December Bowls, when the opponent has more than 6 wins. These teams are 47-26 ATS as a dog. If you consider the money line they win 46.2% of all games.Make the play on UConn.

The Boise St. Broncos took apart Fresno St. in their regular season meeting 40-20. That was without Fresno St. QB Jake Haener for Fresno St. A lot has changed since then. Fresno St. has won 7 straight games, the last 5 with Haener. It was an easy part of the schedule but having Haener back has not moved the needle much offensively. Boise St. fired their offensive coordinator, and changed their QB as well. Boise St. went from a significantly poor offensive team into a well above average running teams. The changes since that game have been more positively significant for Boise St. than Fresno St. Fresno St. defends the run poorly, so the Broncos will be attacking the weak point of the defense with their strength. I think this is an even better matchup than the previous one for Boise St. Make the play on Boise St.

There is a hue difference from Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall to anyone that ever played QB at Coastal Carolina.  The difference from him at QB vs anyone else is about 1.5 yards per play, and that has translated to about 10ppg worse offensively. Another factor is ball security. McCall had 7 INTs in 3 seasons, and just 1 this year. Guest, his replacement has thrown 4 in just 43 attempts. Last week vs James Madison, Coastal Carolina averaged just 2.8 yards per play in a 47-7 loss. Troy has a very strong defense and has allowed just 13ppg in their last 7. Coastal Carolina is offensive dependent to win games as they have a poor defense. I think this one is another blowout. My NCAAF Conference Championship Game of the Year is on Troy.

The game between Akron and Buffalo has been rescheduled for December 2, after the massive snowstorm in Buffalo cancelled the game back in November. This is an effort by the league, and Buffalo to give another MAC team the chance to be Bowl eligible as Buffalo is 5-6. The Bulls are not a Bowl quality team by recent play. They were 5-3 needing just 1 win in their final 4 games to become eligible, and they struck out in the first 3. Akron has been so bad for so long and their 2-9 record this season doesn't show any change on the surface. Akron has improved considerably and won their last game against Northern Illinois in impressive fashion behind back up QB Undercuffler. It doesn't matter who starts, as Irons and Undercuffler are pretty much a wash. Buffalo is a horrible -1.4 yards per play from the line of scrimmage, while Akron is just -0.9/ The Zips have out-gained their last 4 opponents, and this team is on the improve. The line here is a reputation line, and significantly inflated. Make the play on Akron.

This is going to be a tough spot for Stanford. The Cardinal are just 3-8 and are off a loss against their arch rival Cal in their last game. What stung more is they led the game and let it slip away. There was a lot of mental and physical energy used in that game. Stanford has no offense, and 4 RB's are out or questionable from an offense that has scored 85 total points in its last 6 games, topping out at 20. BYU won a big game vs Stanford, and two in a row and are now at 6-5 and bowl eligible. Stanford is now 6-11 ATS following the Cal game. Play on BYU.

Penn St. is 9-2 on the season, with losses to a pair of unbeaten teams in Michigan and Ohio St. While they aren't on the level of playoff teams, they have done extremely well otherwise. Penn St. has beaten 7 opponents by a combined 218 points or by 31ppg. The defense has allowed 17 points or less in 8 games this season. Michigan St, still has suspension and injury issues and lost to Indiana last week giving up 38 points. I think the Nittany Lions are playing as good as anyone right now winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 85-10. One more time for 10 wins. Make the play on Penn St.

When you look at what UT San Antonio has done the last couple of years, the program is thriving. They will be heading to the Conference USA Title game next week once again. UTEP was pounded by UTSA last year 44-23 at home. I think things will b different this year, and we lean on last year to offer the logic as to why? Last year the Roadrunners were unbeaten with the same scenario awaiting them. They were heading to the Conference Championship Game the following week. They ended up playing North Texas as an unbeaten ranked team, and even under those circumstances they pulled most of their starters in the 2nd quarter, and that included QB Harris. They ended up losing that game 45-23 as a 10 point favorite. UTEP is negative from the line of scrimmage this season, but they have out-gained their schedule of opponents by 36 yards per game because they average 10 more plays than their opponents. UTSA went into the North Texas game last year, without much of a game plan as the starters were not going to be in the game long. If they did that a year ago with an unbeaten ranked team, it certainly makes sense we see that again, which would make this line advantageous for UTEP. The Miners are 5-6 and can mke a bowl with a win. They may have a shot, but covering should certainly be very likely. My NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH IS ON UTEP.

There is a good chance at 4-7 on the season that Kent St. injured QB Collin Schlee will not play in this game. That is a huge downgrade to the Kent St. offense. Schlee completed 59% of his passes but back uo Devin Kargman has completed just 46%. When Schlee was injured last game Kargman ran the offense for 6 drives, all 6 were 3 and out and turned a likely win into a loss. Buffalo is 5-6 and is needing a win to become Bowl eligible, and I think they catch a break here. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Castal Carolina offense is highly dependent on QB Grayson McCall. McCall has suffered a season ending foot injury, and will not play against James Madison. McCall had thrown for 9.5 yards per attempt on the season, and 21 Tds to just 1 INT. His replacement Jarrett Guest has thrown just 20 passes all season, and completed just 45%. He also has not thrown a TD pass, but in his 20 attempts he has thrown 3 INTs and has been sacked 3 times. James Madison is vulnerable in the air, but Coastal Carolina does not have the ability to exploit that without McCall. James Madison allows 2.6 rushing yards per carry and Coastal Carolina is pass dependent and their running game is limited. James Madison QB Todd Centaio has been around for 6 years, and has had a stellar season with 21 TDs and 5 INTs and has been sacked just 13 times. JMU is a balanced offense, but will have its way with a rather weak Coastal secondary. Make the play on James Madison.

UCLA had their biggest game of the season last vs USC. They suffered a close loss, and I am not sure how much of a full tank they bring into this game at Cal. Cal has been a great play on team as a home dog where they are 26-10 ATS with Coach Justin Wilcox, and when the line is 7 or more that is 6-1 ATS. Lots looking the way of the Bears in this one. Make the play on California.

This game is from my best total situation and the play is on the under.

Arkansas had 3 straight home games to become bowl eligible, but they lost to both Liberty and LSU, and needed a big win. They took down a very good Ole Miss team with ease, and come into this game against Missouri at 6-5. This team hasn't been on the road in a month, and have to have that satisfied feeling off their big win. Arkansas has a strong balanced offense, but what the offense takes, the defense has given back. They average 466 yards per game, but the defense allows 452. Missouri has a plus defense, but the offense is average, but they are +25 yards a game, which is a better net than Arkansas. The combination of a satisfied Arkansas team, slight stat edge, and the fact that Missouri is bowl eligible with a win, makes the Tigers the more motivated team. Make the play on Missouri.

This game is from my strongest college football total system and the play is on the under.

Texas is likely the best 7-4 team in the country. They have had a difficult schedule, and lost some tough games. The Horn`s are 1.9 yards a play combining offense and defense that puts them in elite status. Baylor has had a good season but coming off a physical and highly emotional 1 point loss to TCU is likely to take its toll today. I`m on this game also because of huge situations favoring Texas, and equally huge situations against Baylor. Make the play on Texas.

The Egg Bowl has historically been a lower scoring game than anticipated as these teams have played 11-3-2 ATS to the under in the last 16, as well as 7-1-1 ATS to the under in the last 9 meetings. This game also applies to a long term under situation, that is based on part on a team coming off an extraordinary rushing game. That situation is 541-360-28 to the under. Make the play under the total.

It will be harder to find a game between two teams that started strong and have fallen apart. Syracuse appeared to be on their way to an elite season. The Orange came out of the gate 6-0, but have fallen on hard times losing 4 straight. Wake Forest held a #10 ranking at one point, but they are just 2-4 in the ACC and have lost 3 straight, so something has to give here. This is a great match up for Syracuse. Wake loves to throw the ball, and has struggled running it all season. Their elite passing offense is going to face an elite Syracuse pass defense, that ranks #14 in the country. Cuse allows just 168 yards per game in the air, and turns teams over consistently well. Wake has turned the ball over 14 times in their last 4 games. It is hard to trust either team, but the line appears to be way off, and Wake Forest fits a situation that is 228-307-14 ATS with a subset of 90-143-4 ATS. I like Syracuse in this one.

Tennessee has it all over SC, and should win and cover this game rather comfortably. Huge road favorites are 191-154-2 ATS from greater than -21 as long as they have a winning percentage of .900 or better. Make the play on Tennessee.

This game has the lowest posted total so far of this season. It is rare to see a college football game with a total this low. The games always look like they will be 13-10, or 17-13, etc. The fact is when a college football game has a posted total of fewer than 35 points, the games have played over the total to a 19-3 ATS mark, in favor of over the total. I'll play this one over the total.

This game fits my top long-term total situation which is 616-367-20 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.

The Florida St. season can be summed up by 3 consecutive losses to Wake Forest, NC State, and Clemson. All the games were close and Florida St. out-gained all 3 teams by a combined 1240-1091. Florida St. is one of the top teams in the country in yards per play margin, and could easily be 9-1 or 10-0 coming into this game. They have been 2.1 yards per play better than their schedule of opponents allow. LA Lafayette has no offense to speak of, and overall they have been even at the line of scrimmage for the season, but when you factor in strength of schedule the edge for Florida St. increases substantially. Florida St. since their 3 losses is 3-0 and has out-scored those 3 opponents 124-22 and neither of their last 2 opponents have gotten in the end-zone. This looks like a 30+ point game to me. Make the play on Florida St.

Florida St. lost 3 games in a row and it looked like another tough season. Since that point the light went on for this team and they are playing like a top 10 team. The Noles have won 2 straight games by a combined score of 86-19. Perhps what goes unnoticed because they are 6-3 is that Florida St. ranks 5th in the country in yards per play. They are out-gaining opponents by 2 yards per snap, nd if you do that you win a lot of games. Dino Babers had his team at 6-0, but has lost the magic as the Orange have lost 3 straight. They have been really hurt by injuries, and the line here says it looks like QB Garrett Shrader is going ti miss his 2nd straight game. Syracuse had 9 points and 145 total yards without him last week. The Noles are also in a momentum situation that is 87-36 ATS and I will make the play on Florida St.

This game fits my top total situation which is 613-361-19 ATS. Make the play under the total.

This is an interesting match up. I think there is considerable value here. It starts with the fact that the defensive line coach for Troy is Eric McDaniel. He was a defensive coach at Army prior to coming to Troy, and went up against the triple-option every day, and certainly knows how to stop it. Shiel Wood is the defensive coordinator at Troy. He was the defensive coordinator at Army prior to coming to Troy, and coached at Georgia Tech, and Wofford as well (both option offenses). The Troy defensive coaches have a lot of experience coaching against the triple-option. Troy is a very good defense, and allows just 3.3 yards per carry against them, but the offense is lacking a running game, which is the Army's weakness, as they are better against the pass. Army generated just 7 points and ran 35 times last week vs Air Force for just 78 yards, a team that also runs the option and can defend it. Troy has scored just 16.6ppg in their last 3, and I think both teams are going to be limited in this game. Make the play on the under.

I wasn`t surprised to see an 8-0 Clemson team make the top 4 slots for the playoffs 2 weeks ago. This team is not the same as the Clemson teams we have seen in the past, despite the gaudy record. They were exposed by Notre Dame last week and blown out. The proof is this. Prior to this season Clemson played 22 straight games at home and were posted as a double-digit favorite in all of them. This year they have played 5 home games and have been a double-digit favorite in just 1 of them. Their 4 toughest games vs Wake Forest, Florida St., Notre Dame, and Syracuse saw them go 3-1 but they were actually out-scored in the 4 games. Their last 3 games has seen them out-scored 84-5, allowing 28ppg, and were out-gained in 2 of them. Louisville is 6-3 and has it going with 4 straight wins by a combined score of 140-58, and has played the more difficult schedule. Louisville has out-gained their opponents this season by an average of 75 yards a game, to Clemson`s 71, and out-gaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play to Clemson`s 1.0, and to a slightly stronger schedule. This says Louisville is actually a slightly better team, and the only reason Clemson is favored by a TD is they are Clemson, but not the Clemson we are used to. Make the play on Louisville.

This game fits a situation that is 137-91 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game is a weather play as 41 MPH wind gusts are expected in Cincinnati. The wind does not impact the running game of Navy, but it will certainly impact the passing game of Cincinnati. I like Navy in this one.

This game will be played in horrible conditions with a cold rain and winds gusting up to 60 MPH. Illinois is allowing 8.9ppg as it is, and can just stack the box against the run all game. Make the play on the UNDER

This game is a weather play with high winds and rain, and a New Mexico offense that is already severely handicapped. Make the play on the under.

TCU QB Chandler Morris went down 3 weeks ago and the TCU offense has not skipped a beat. The TCU offense is generating 9.7 yards per pass attempt and it will be difficult for Texas Tech to both stop, and keep up with TCU in this game. Texas Tech has a below average offense, and slightly better than average defense, but neither will be enough to allow them to hang with the unbeaten Horned Frogs. TCU also applies to a situation that is 88-49 ATS. Make the play on TCU.

Air Force and Army is always a heated rivalry game among Military schools. This is not a vintage Army running attack and the big rushing yards they have generated has come against Villanova, Colgate, and LA Monroe. The Army is running for just 4.3 yards per carry in other games. These Military games come down to who can stop the run better. The numbers say the better run defense covers better than 65% of the time when the line isn`t huge. Air Force applies to a lot of favorable situations beyond that. Make the play on Air Force.

The Georgia Bulldogs have been the best team in NCAA Football over their last 26 games where they are 25-1 SU. They will take on Florida in Jacksonville, Fla. Georgia has out-gained opponents 527-247, and their defense has been so good they have run +16 plays a game more than their opponent. They out-gain opponents from both sides of the line of scrimmage by 2.7 yards per play. Florida comes in at 4-3, but the Gators are being out-gained by 6 yards per game. The Bulldogs are 65-10 SU and 45-30 ATS since the start of the 2017 season, allowing 14.8ppg, and in their 25-1 SU current run they allow 9.9ppg. The Bulldogs fit a situation that is 93-31 ATS. Make the play on Georgia.

Illinois has not won 7 games since 2011. They have won 9 games or more just 2 times since 1990. Illinois lost to Indiana 23-20 back in game 2. They gave the game away as they dominated the stats, but 4 turnovers did them in. Since that game they are 5-0 and have allowed 33 total points or 6.6ppg. Illinois has a top 3 defense in the country, and have out-gained opponents 418-225 and is allowing 3.8 yards per play on the season. Nebraska is considered to be strong offensively, but they are out-gaining Illinois by just 6 yards per game. Defensively, Nebraska allows 472 yards per game, or 250 yards more than Illinois. These numbers show a statistical easy double-digit win for Illinois. No team has out-gained Illinois this season, and I don't see that changing here. Make the play on Illinois.

Iowa opened the season with what looked like one of the worst offenses in the country. They were missing their top WR which hampered an already bad offense losing their top weapon. He is back and the offense has improved, but still considerably below average. The Hawkeyes are off 3 consecutive games vs Ohio St., Michigan, and Illinois, the top 3 teams in the Big-10. Michigan and Ohio St. are elite offensive teams, but no other team has scored more than 10 points against them. Northwestern scored 7 points in each of their top 2 games vs Penn St. and Wisconsin, and it is likely they won't get more than that here. Iow is a top 3 defense in the country and a shutout is not out of the question. Make the play on Iowa.

This game fits my best NCAAF total situations which is 601-354-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my best NCAAF total situations which is 601-354-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

UL Lafayette and Southern Miss are both changed teams since the beginning of the season. Southern Miss caught a bad break in game one when they lost starting QB Ty Keyes to a  season ending injury. He has been replaced by the tandem of Wilke and Lange, but each has been a significant drop off from Keyes. UL Lafayette has seen just the opposite take place. Chandler Fields was injured, and the QB duties were taken over by Ben Wooldridge, and the offense has been a lot better. Southern Miss has turned the ball over 17 times on the season, while the aggressive defense of UL Lafayette has forced 17 turnovers of their own. Add it all up and UL Lafayette has emerged the better team and should come out victorius on the road. Make the play on UL Lafayette.

Southern Miss is 3-3 on the season, and turnovers has had a lot to say about their outcomes. Their 3 losses to good teams in Miami, FL, Troy, and Liberty saw them lose the turnover battle 12-6. Their 3 wins they have just 4 total turnovers. Texas St. has a huge win over Appalachian St. as a 19 point under dog but has not done much otherwise with a offense that is well below average. Texas St. has run the ball for 86 yards or fewer in 5 of their 7 games, and they have been out-gained by 5 straight FBS opponents. It's clear that Southern Miss has the advantage in this game on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Southern Miss.

This is strictly a weather play. The weather today in Palo Alto, CA calls for showers, but more importantly sustained winds of 25 MPH with gusts in the 30s. Both teams rely on the passing game which will be slowed by the windy conditions. Make the play on the under.

Oklahoma St. suffered their first loss of the season last week vs TCU. The big concern here is the Cowboy's allowed over 500 yards of offense for the third time this season. Oklahoma St. has now been out-gained by 4 teams on the season (C. Michigan,Baylor,Texas Tech, and TCU). Texas will be the best team they have faced all season, and the Horn's have played a much tougher schedule. This is also a tough spot for Oklahoma St. as a team with a 5-0 record or better off their first loss of the season have gone 157-199-6 ATS at 44.1%. Texas is clearly better than a TD than Oklahoma St. on the road. Make the play on Texas.

Both of these teams average over 40 points per game, so that certainly looks like the over is a good take. However, I think the fact that both these teams are coming off their bye, and 13 days to prepare that changes things, as the defenses have had a lot of time to prepare. Games with both teams coming off a bye with a total of 63 or more points with the home team favored are 3-13-1 O/U. They have failed to go over the total by an average of 11.88ppg. Make the play on the under.