Baltimore -5.5

Last week was no fluke, this is the Ravens year to dominate their division and make some real noise, and the radical blitz scheme they used on defense was a killer to the Steelers, so expect Hasselbeck to feel the heat here. Ravens can stuff the run, and they have stopped RB Johnson before, holding him to 48 yards the last time these 2 met up. The OL of Tennessee was exposed last week, not good news against the Ravens front 4 or their active LB unit either. Total mis match on paper, and while this number is not the most desired number to lay on the road, My power ratings have this at 10 points difference even with home field point rating of 2.5 figured in. Big overlay ATS and a big win for4 the Ravens.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore

Jets -4

So you are telling me giving most teams a 3 point home advantage that oddsmakers think Americas team is just 1 point less than the Jets, who are a deeply talented playoff team, who beat pounded the Pats on the road in the playoffs, and did nothing but improve their offense in the offseason? I think Dallas. The Jets defense will tear apart this offensive line of the Cowboys and the jets receivers should shred apart a suspect Dallas secondary that gives up big plays. Rex Ryans brother being the new DC for Dallas has not impressed me in the least to date. Romo limited in movement from what I have seen, and with attacking secondary players from the Jets capable of man to man coverage in most situation, I do not see Dallas staying within the number here. Jets by 10 at home here.

Play 1 Unit on the NY Jets

Detroit +1.5

Drinking the Kool Aid here with Detroit, on the road, to win a game. Really like their depth at WR, RB and Stafford back on track for them at QB. Tampa a good team no doubt, but concerned about WR unit and their ability to get open for QB Freeman under a massive pass rush and attacking defense lead by all world Suh. I was impressed by the Lions game against the4 Pats in the preseason where starters played and DOMINATED Pats starters for over 2 quarters. That was no fluke. Lions believe, I think this is one of the best games of the day and I will take the better team who impressed me in the preseason.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit.

2 Team Six Point Teaser. Tease the Pittsburgh Steelers to +9 and Tease the NY Jets to +2.

Buffalo +5.5 to 6

Tough number for KC to lay with Cassel doubtful at QB, and KCs playmaking Tight end out of the season, a HUGE hot for KCs offense. KC will run the ball here which kills clock, and Buffalo vastly improved on defense with Merriman in the mix and their offense is better than most think, I like their QB a great deal and he is a playmaker. KC just 11-20 ATS at Arrowhead the last 31 games, and quite frankly with Chalire Weis gone as OC, I did not see KC excel in any phase of offense in an 0-4 preseason.

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo

Atlanta -2.5

No idea why this line is under a fall number. Oddsmakers usually give a home team a -3 number in what is considered a good game. The line is a tell tale sign oddsmakers KNOW ATL is better by far here on the road. Chicago a mess up fron on the line and Atlantas attack style defense and ability to stretch the field vertically and make quick strikes a huge advantage. Cutler is turnover prone at QB, Ryan is not. ATL under the radar having lost all 4 preseason games. Line is cheap for the better team

Play 1.5 Units on ATL

Steelers +2.5 (all prop bet odds from BoDog or Bet US) similar odds at all Sportsbooks.

At days end, the Steelers organization and team and coaches are built to win championships. It is not always pretty, it is not always a blowout, but the Steelers win games when other teams fail, and they thrive under pressure. Big Ben at QB is EXPERIENCED in Super Bowls and big games, and so are most of his playmakers, and that is an intangible that cannot be overlooked. Green Bay is a 6 seeded team and had to beat all teams on the road and play a brutal schedule down the stretch to get in here, but Atlanta was overrated all year, and the Bears without Cutler for a half was a layup and even then a third string QB came into that game and had huge success considering he never played a game all year. That is a dead giveaway. Green Bay is a very good team, but Pittsburgh is a great team. Better defense, better running game, better overall QB. Green Bays LACK of running game is going to be a KEY in this game, and even if they had Ahman Green rise from the ashes, he could not even run against the Steelers. Pitt is poised, experienced and well coached and have the better team. Better RB, more experience and a Super Bowl Veteran QB with 2 wins, and better defense. Adds up to a Steelers win boys. No stats and ATS trends, just the facts.

Play 1 to 1.5 Units on Pittsburgh to win by 6.

Same Game Teaser

Pitt -3 to 3.5

I will throw out the stats here, and just give you what I have learned from 20 years of capping. A good team is avenging a home loss to a team in the same season. Pitt will get revenge. The Jets are road warriors no doubt, BUT they cannot run the ball against the Steelers and it boils down to a battle of QBs and Big Ben is FAR SUPERIOR to Sanchez. The Jets are on their 3rd straight roadie against a Giant and the emotion spent last week beating the Pats will NOT be matched. As a matter of fact the letdown and then getting back up for this game with everything on the line is a HUGE issue for the Jets. I have seen this fail more times than not in the past, sometimes in an ugly way. The Steelers win and win ugly, but they are too much for the Jets who have not seen a defense like this in their last 2 games. Pitt the better team at home. Period.

Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh.

Green Bay -3.5



NO DOUBT Green Bay the better team. I cannot pass on a battle tested team who is on a mission here. Cutler got by with numerous errant passes against Seattle last week, and GB will not allow it, just ask Matt Ryan who threw carelessly against GB last week and got stung. Atlanta getting waxed at home was proof enough for me that Green Bay and their flawless QB is too much for the Bears who have to have a perfect game out of Culter to win, and Rodgers is better, and at days end, it boils down to QB play in big games and defense, and GB is better in both. L week off and beating Seattle by 11 after key players for the Hawks were injured in that game is not enough of resume for them to beat GB even at home. B oth cold weather teams so weather is not going to adversely affect either team.



Play 2 Units on Green Bay

Jets +9

Nothing comes easy this time of year and Jets avenging a bad loss on Monday Night, the worst under Ryan tenure. The Jets defense held Indy down on the road and won a thriller, and time down with New Englands offense, which is based on timing will be sluggish out of the gate. Expect an all out attack on Brady all day and for the Jets to redeem themselves. I have no thoughts of NY winning this game, and usually if I take a dog I think they can win, but this is too many points for this heated rivalry and Jets showing signs of life on defense. I expect a lower scoring game, and the points look tasty, I am taking them.

Play 1 Unit

Chicago -10

I smell a blowout. First up any team off a double digit dog upset outright, and then travel, is a go against. Seattle also beat Chicago in here already once this season and revenge is a huge factor. The other is defense, Seattle saw none of it last week, they will on Solider field this weekend, along with about 15 degrees in temps. Look for Forte to run it and for Hester to make a big play against the vaunted special teams of the Seahawks. Respect what they have done with a losing record but Hasslebeck is off the best game of his life and it will be hard to duplicate that against Julius Peppers and his mates. Chicago by 15 here, maybe 20. Could be a 31-10 ballgame easy. Banking on Cutler playing well here, and Seattle just 2-6 ATS on the road.

Play 1.5 Units on Chicago

Green Bay +2.5 to 3

Just cannot deny the schedule and wins that Green Bay has done and came out on top here. Aaron Rodgers the better QB, and QB Ryan no slouch. Tough to beat a good team twice in 5 weeks and last time I had Atlanta in this one and barely won. With Green Bays defense on fire, and now a running game, and revenge, I like them in the dome here. Atlanta a tough team no doubt but GB secondary far better and bear in mind their offense is the only offense in the NFL that new England played in the Pats last 6 games that scored more than 7 points on the Pats, Green Bay is a machine on offense when Rodgers is in sync. Atlanta 9-20-1 ATS their last 30 homes games against a team with a winning record. Green Bay have covered 8 out of their last 11.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Tease the Total DOWN in the Pitt game to 31 points and take the OVER. Tease Green Bay up to +8.5 to 9. Play 1 Unit.

Steelers -3

A week off and rested and healthy. That means a lot in January. Pitt is 8-0 ATS their last 8 games in January, for a reason, as well as 7-1 ATS their last 8 playoff games. Their defense is BETTER than the Ravens, THAT IS THE Key in this game, their team is more rested, and their QB is far more effective than Flacco, who was buried against KC last week with numerous sacks and hurried throws, KC was just out manned after playing a weak schedule and made Baltimore look better than they are. Back to back roadies for an aging defense, and More big play firepower from Pitt, and trust me, Todd Heap will not have open looks in the seam all day like he did against KC. Pitt finds a way to win ugly each and every week it seems, and avenging a home loss to the hated Ravens when Big Ben was on suspension. Fall number here but I say Pitt by a TD, the whole world loves Baltimore here, home field worth 4!

Play 1 Unit on the Steelers

New York Jets +3

There is a reason Indy is not going up as far as the line, Vegas oddsmakers KNOW the Jets are better, especially from a health standpoint. On Friday this line inched up to 3, perfect for us, now on a fall number. I have been beaten by the Jets point wise all season, but I like them here on the road to beat Manning who is seriously undermanned here due to an injury list which quite frankly is just unreal. The Jets history against Indy with Ryan as coach is well documented but the Jets out of a very tough division, they have playmakers here, especially on defense and I look for NY to ram it down Indy throat and keep Freeny and company honest in the pass rush. Wrong team favored, mild upset, but Manning cannot do it himself and I have serious questions about the Indy defense giving up big plays here and they will.

Play 1 Unit on NY Jets. 2 Teamer 6 point Teaser. Tease The Saints down to -4 to 4.5 and Tease Indy up to +9 for 1 Unit. Best of Luck. TG

New Orleans -10 to 10.5

I HATE to give a home dog in the playoffs ANY points like this, but in the 9 losses the Seahawks have had, they lost by an average of 21 ppg in those losses. The best team to come into Seattle in the last 6 weeks was Kansas City, another playoff team, and KC waxed Seattle big time scoring 42 points with a lesser offense than NO and I expect the reigning world champs to do the same. Do you think Sean Peyton is going to let a team with a losing record, and a rookie coach, and a team with serious QB issues whose starter has a 72 QB rating beat his team who won it all last year? Not a chance, Saints better in all aspects and Seattle in for an ass kicking here. A rare double digit home dog playoff pass for me, the Hawks are 7-9 for a reason, they are no good and from a division that stunk up the NFL this season. The Saints rested starters last week in a loss, no biggie, look for Drew Brees to light it up here BIG.

Play 1 Unit, Saints by 17.

Houston
Jax without RB Drew or QB Gerrard in a must win game, but that my friends is about 70 percent of their offense. Yes Houston has a bad secondary but doubtful Trent Edwards can expose it. The Texans coach on hot seat and also a must win for them here to save his job. I like the running game of Houston here to be the difference and Jax is overrated in all areas.
Play 1 Unit on Houston

Bears +10
Cannot fathom this line. The Bears are a good football team and a better RB and running game to boot, and their defense has played well as of late and Chicago playing for a number one seed here. Maybe I am buying into a trap line, but Green Bay is a hated foe of Lovie Smith and he will not just come in here and lay an egg and rest players. Aaron Rodgers has been lights out but with 2 head injuries and the Bears pass rush, if he gets banged around too much, it will make a difference. Too many points regardless of what GB is playing for, this wont come easy. Oddsmakeras begging me to take this line after the Jets scored 34 on Da Bears last week, I say the defense gets back to playing well and I will take oddsmakers up on their offer.
Play 1 Unit on the Bears

2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Tease Seattle to +8.5 and tease Washington to +10 for 1 Unit

Kansas City -3 (get on it early, Bet US Line)
Not sold on Oaklands motivation coming in here and KC grabbed defeat from the jaws of vixctory in the first game these two played. This is a bitter rival for KC with trevenge on their way to the playoffs. KC is coached EXTREMELY WELL by Todd Haily and his staff and will not just lay down because they are in the playoffs. RB Charles may see limited action, however RB Thomas a good one and KC has play makers all over the field. Publically stated that NO starters fro KC will be rested, and KC weather will also affect Raider
Play 1.5 Units on Kansas City. Top Play

Chicago Bears -1

Jets QB Sanchez will play but against this attack defense with Peppers and Urlacher running around and bull rshuing the young Sanchez he may be tenative. The Bears also shut down the run, and I doubt the Jets are good enought on back to back road games to beat Pitt and Chicago in 7 days, both on the road. Chicago is not overlooking this game and the Jets not in a must win here in anyway. Although Chicago won their division, rest assured this well coached team knows this is a good AFC team that they want to beat.

Play 1 unit on Chicago

2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Tease Kansas City to +1 and Tease the NY Giants to +9 for 1 Unit.

Balitmore -3.5

Yes a MUST WIN for the Ravens and while the Browns have contended in many games this year, a rookie QB against this defense who is in a must win situation is not the way to look. I like the Ravens here to step up and have a huge game. Hillis the running back for the Browns and a KEY player on offense for them did not practice on Wednesday and is banged up with a bum knee, not a good deal for the Borwns considering the Ravens run defense has been lights out anyway, allowing just over 80 yards a game their last 5 games against some stud running backs. Too much of everything here and a team motivated for a playoff postion here and possible division title.

TOP PLAY, Play 1.5 Units on Blatimore

Chicago -8



Everything in this game favors the Bears. Yes, a big number but warranted. A 9-4 record, and off a horrific beat down at home against the Pats who are beating everyone anyway does nothing to move me off this side, if anything it adds fuel for my decision. It is outside in cold and snow, the better defense and better offense is on the side of Chicago. The better QB is Cutler. Minny starts Joe Webb a rookie from UAB who has no experience at all and with a make shift offensive line and a wounded star in Peterson at RB and Harvin at WR is not 100 percent. The defense of Minny has been below average and with so many 3 and outs by their offense the Bears will pound out enough points in this one to pull away. Clearly Minny overall is running at about 50% tonight and playing in conditions they are not used to. The Bears can tie up this division pretty much after Green Bay lost another one and they have plenty to play for, and 14 degrees wind chill and possible snow, the weather while frightful, favors the Bears who are used to it. The Bears defense wants some redemption after Tom Brady and company lit them up in their own house, who better than to do it against than a beat up and wounded Vikes team, a division rival.


Play 1 Unit on Chicago. Thanks and best of Luck. TG

Oakland -6.5 to 7

Third road game in a row for Denver who were slaughtered by the worst team in the NFL last week, the NFLs worst offense put up 43 points on Denver who is in a tailspin. Oakland can and will run it down their throat and Oakland still in playoff hunt as a long shot. This actually in Denvers fourth road game in 5 weeks and they are reeling. Oakland lost a heartbreaker last week against Jax, they will not fail here at home after beating Denver 59-14 already this year. Mis match, I have a power rating of 10 here, nice overlay. Rainy weather for this one, I like McFadden to have a big day.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

New Orleans +1

I look and see what Houston did to Baltimore on Monday and think to myself, New Orleans is better at doing it than Houston, and with a full complement of running backs back for the Saints, and Baltimore off a short week and travel in 2 absolutely BRUTAL games with Houston and Pittsburgh, the Saints will wear down the Ravens, cold weather or not, and pick them apart in the second half with an overall unit of WRs that simply is deeper and better than Houstons Johnson, and will systematically pull away with scoring in the second half. The Ravens offense is not that good in all areas and the Saints defense is good enough to hold them at bay.

Play 2 Units on New Orleans

Ravens -3

DEFENSE. Enough said. This time of year teams who play defense are winning games BIG TIME. Not worried about a tough game last Sunday against the Steelers for the Ravens here. Houston plays NO defense and the Ravens will get their offense going here, especially in good weather. Houstons has no defense, and look for the Ravens to concentrate solely on stopping the run, forcing this one dimensional offense to throw it, and all world WR Bryant is not 100 percent and he is Houstons main weapon to stretch the field, and with Ed Redd healthy, I doubt the big play happens as we have the best safety in football playing over top. Houston has allowed over 24 points in every game this season on defense except one and that was Tennessee with no QB basically. Ravens by a TD, and they continue to vie for a playoff spot, every game counts and they will show up.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore

Denver -4

I continue to go against a team with NO offense against a solid team in Denver with a bad record. I watched Denver play in KC last week in person and they lost by 4 to a very good Kansas City team in a tough place to play. They shut down KCs high powered offense to 10 points at home. I doubt seriously Arizona mounts a charge. QB Orton, while on a losing team here is having a great year and RB Moreno is running it better and keeps defenses honest. This game is under the radar screen because of the coaching change, but I took Dallas and Minnesota in the same week their coaches were fired, and I will follow suit here as most NFL teams play hard the following week after a coach firing. Arizona just a bad team on offense and Denver can shut them down and beat them by a TD here.

Play 1 Unit on Denver

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser

San Deigo -6.5 (Bookmaker line Friday at 1 CST) take it to 7 MAX

There is a reason that the division leader is such a huge dog in this one and Vegas oddsmakers know it. KC beat the Chargers on opening day, a Monday Night game, so revenge is a factor. QB Cassel is out for KC and Croyle, his backup is a human turnover machine and does not have the timing routes down or chemistry with the starters here which could prove fateful for the Chiefs. While KC can and will rely on their running game, which is rock solid, KC has also struggled on the road against good passing teams and Rivers is one of the best regardless of who he is throwing to. KCs best cover corner Brandon Flowers is out for this game and that is a KEY injury for KC along with their QB. Houston and Indy lit the secondary of KC up in road losses, and KC has only beaten Cleveland and Seattle on the road on the road, and been beaten on the road by lesser teams than the Chargers who are making their patented late season run, and 2 games back of KC in this division is a huge motivation. The Chargers are looking at this like a Playoff game, they will be ready big time.

Chargers by 12 for a 2 UNIT TOP PLAY

Cleveland +1

Even on the road, I like the lesser of 2 evils here and if in fact not for some bad breaks, the Browns would be in the thick of it. The weather is windy and cold, which provides us this time of year with a scenario of teams like Buffalo who rely on the pass some advantage when you have a team like Cleveland who runs the ball and plays solid defense, gives us a huge edge in a game like this. The Browns are better than advertised and Buffalo just got hammered by Minnesota against a second string QB in embarrassing fashion, and one has to question the motivation of the team. The Browns RB Hillis should have a HUGE day, and that eats clock and wears down a bad run defense and I see the Browns pulling away late.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland

New England -3.5

Look for advantages in games like this that are not on the stat sheet, but the intangibles is what matters. First up home field here is worth 3 points. New England hammered NY last year in here 31-14, and Brady is red hot and proving to be a leader as always. In a battle of this magnitude, I always side with the better QB and head coach, BOTH favor New England. The plethera of weapons Brady has provides matchup issues for NY, especially at tight end and that will be KEY in this game. Jets struggled against Cincy, Houston, Detroit and Cleveland in tight wins, and the really good team they played, they lost to, Green Bay and they have a win over the Pats back in September. New England by a TD better here.

Play 1 Unit on New England

Baltimore -3

Love the Ravens in this spot. Pitt wins ugly it seems, and Big Ben not 100 percent and the Ravens undefeated at home. The stats are even across the board so you look at intangibles in a game like this. Yes the ravens beat them already and Pitt was without Big Ben in that one, but the Ravens 5-0 at home and play lights out inspired defense. Pitts last 5 games, they lost 2 to good teams, and beat Oakland, Cleveland and needed an OT miracle to Beat Buffalo. The schedule is tougher with more impressive wins for the Ravens, like them here by a TD
Play 1 Unit on Baltimore

2 Team teaser - Tease Kansas City down to -3 and Tease JAX to +9 for 1 Unit

Seattle -5
Off a rear kicking at the hands of Kansas City, I expect Seattle to win this by 8-12 points on Sunday at home. Carolina has the worst offense in the NFL, no QB with a rating of over 55, which is just unreal and when you have an offense that scores a meager 12 ppg and gives up 25 ppg, you are not going on the road and beating ANYONE in the NFL, as evidenced by the Panthers have NO road wins on the season. Wow. Seattle better, at home, and wanting to get back on track after getting hammered by KC, a good team, in here last week. Seattle wins it running away late, and Seattle Special teams are unreal and will factor in.
Play 2 Units on Seattle - TOP PLAY

Green Bay -9 (dropped to -8.5 at Bet US on Saturday)

Big number yes. For good reason, the Packers are number one in the NFL on defense in points allowed at only 15 pgg. They are off a very tough loss at Atlanta and still remain one of the better offenses in the NFL led by all world QB Rodgers who has a 97 rating and shines at home. The high temp is 26 degrees on Sunday for this game with no snow or rain, just cold, and west coast teams have serious issues with that type of weather, and it is a factor. San Fran off a blowout Monday win, but that was against the Cards who are self destructing. Green Bay has won 7 in a row in this series dating back to 1999, and San Fran in this series has covered 1 time out of the last 11 meetings. Far better team in a MUST WIN scenario, in one of the toughest venues to play in in December in the NFL. RB Gore lost for the season with a broken hip a HUGE blow to San Fran whose offense is weak at best.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay

San Fran -1

Cannot back the worst offense in football with little or no downfield verticle game against the NFL's 13th ranked overall defense. THIS IS THE KEY IN THE GAME. On top of that Arizonas defense is near dead last, and they are off a horrific beating last week in Kansas City. The road team in this series is 8-1 ATS the last 9 times, and with QB Smith adding some pizazz for San Fran on offense and RB Gore able to bang it in there and balance a vanillia attack enough to keep the defense hinest, San Fran wins a tight one. You simply have to take the better team. San Fran a solid team on MNF, 17-5 ATS their last 22 on Monday.

Play 1 Unit on San Fran. Thanks and best of luck. TG

Baltimore -7.5

Tampa is hot, I rode them last week. I have been waiting for this one to expose Tampa

Atlanta -1.5

This is when the depletion of a run game and some skill players being out for the Packers, who are a good team, comes to the surface. Atlanta is getting no respect from the media and little respect from oddsmakers here. Good deal for us. They are a solid football team, great Receiver unit led by legends Tony Gonzales and stud WR White, plus Ryan is a heady QB with a great arm who gets in little trouble and runs the offense well. Back to back road games for GB off an emotional win against Minny last week. Greens Bays offense only averages 19 ppg on the road and that is also factoring in last weeks 30 point explosion against the hapless Vikes. That stats tell a story of an evenly matched game here, but Atlanta well coached, has the fewest penalties in the NFL this season, have the better running game, the best defense that Green Bay has seen in 4 weeks, and are at home where they are 5-0 on the year. Coming out party for the Dirty Birds.

Play 1 Unit

Minnesota +2

OK. Now we get rid of Childress as head coach, and look out for Favre, he may be in a slump but put a future hall of famer QB with 20 years experience up against this secondary and watch the numbers roll up quickly. Minnesota matches up well in this game. They can run and throw and WR Rice is back. They will also want to make a statement to their unpopular ex head coach that they can win. Off an embarrassing home loss to the Packers, the Skins defense and their secondary will allow Minny to score here and I do not think Washington can keep pace, McNabb under pressure has been doom all year in terms of turnovers and RB Petersen wreaking havoc will keep the defense in zone coverage and Favre will pick it apart. THE NFL IS ABOUT MATCH UP ISSUES. The Offense of Minnesota against this secondary is a total mis match.

Play 2 Units on Minnesota

Saints -3

OK so Dallas managed to beat Detroit and also pull off a miracle with the spiraling downward Giants who cannot stop giving opponents the ball with turnovers. Dallas was outgained by BOTH the Giants and Lions, but still managed to win.. No smoke and mirrors needed for the Saints, on the ascent and getting better. ONE KEY MISMATCH IN THIS GAME. The Dallas secondary is flat out deplorable and with a guy like QB Brees chucking it around against them, this is the key to the Saints being able to acquire big chunks of yards in a hurry and make Kitna play from behind against an improving defense of New Orleans. Dallas when confronted with a decent to above average quarterback always falls victim to big plays and wheel routes in zone coverage and the tight end usually finds success in the middle season against this porous secondary. Enter in WR Shockey for the Saints, he will have a big day. Dallas gets exposed here on a short week off a less than convincing win against a bottom feeder with no QB where they were outplayed except on the scoreboard. Saints also 3-1 on the road this season.

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans.

Chargers -9

Yes the Bronco

New England -3.5

Remember last years fourth down debacle and 1 point loss in Indy in this game on national TV? If not, rest assured Brady and company do. Indy the walking wounded right now and New England starting to roll as usual. Love Indy in this one at home, national TV game again, and payback is sweet. I could throw out some stats and all that garb, but why? Manning cannot do it on his own, and with no running game you cannot beat the Pats with a one dimensional offense when they know what you are doing,. Pats had this circled for year, they win by 10.

Play 1 Unit on New England

BONUS 2 TEAM 6 POINT TEASER. Tease Kansas City down to -1 and tease the NY Giants to +9, play 1 Unit.

Tampa Bay +3.5

OK Troy Smith has done decent here but look at who San Fran played, St Louis and Denver. Come on e now. Tampa is a road warrior, losing only at Atlanta while on the goal line in that game. They have won every other road game they have played in, have a better offense overall with Freeman being a dual threat, and 30 ppg on offense their last 3 games. LOVE the Hook on the line here in a tight ballgame. San Fran has managed 98 yards per game on the ground, just not good enough in the NFL to compete with teams with a winning record. Long road trip yes, but playing a team that is third worst in the NFL in points scored.

Play 1 Unit on Tampa

Baltimore -10.5

Road game or not, the Ravens stinging off a tough loss to Atlanta last week and extra time to prepare for one of the NFLs worst teams, bar none. No offense, no defense allowing 85 points their last 3 games and last time Carolina played a good team in here, they lost by 31 to the Saints at home. Last in offense in the NFL, and 25th in points allowed on defense, a lame duck head coach, QB issues all over the place and a pissed off Ravens team who will try to give them a goose egg on the scoreboard, which means if Baltimore puts up 14 points, they cover. Any way you slice it, this is one time I am NOT SHY about laying a double digit in the NFL on the road.

Play 2 Units on Baltimore

Miami -1

Like the Fish at home,. Tyler Thigpen starts for the injury depleted Dolphins who lost both starters last week. I am in tune with Thigpen as he lead my local team, Kansas City for almost a year. He is a gamer and is a dual threat QB and unlike in Kansas City he has both an offensive line and a running game and some weapons at WR as well. In Kansas City he plays with none of those and a weak Larry Johnson at the time. The fish just had an impressive win over a good Tennessee team and are now winning at home. The Bears have human turnover machine Cutler at QB and were given a game by the Vikes last week, and I do not expect Miami who is disciplined not to give up huge special teams plays, massive turnovers in crucial points of the game, nor allow a visitor field position on every series. Chicago a paper tiger at 6-3, Miami by a TD. Bears just 2-7 ATS against a team with a winning record and a CRUCIAL game for Miami in the AFC East at 5-4.

Play 1 Unit on Miami.

Bonus Play TNT Hoops in the NBA. Play a half unit on Phoenix Suns +9. Off a horrific performance last night, look for a veteran team to make this a game tonight.

Philly -3

SPEED! Philly has it, and Washington does not. REVENGE. Philly has it, WASHINGTON DOES NOT. Defense, Philly has it, and the Skins do not, allowing 400 yards a game. Running the ball

Tennessee -1.5

Thinking set up line at first with Chad Pennington in the lineup for Miami at home, but the Fish are 0-3 at home this year and have been beaten by every good team they have played this season other than Green Bay who had like 5 starters out in that OT win. Tennessee the real deal and QB Collins playing well, and the running game alone should win this for the Titans. Miami overrated and Tennessee is well coached and now make their push as the post season is in sight, something Jeff Fisher does every year. If Pennington could move the ball and help score, they would have had him in here a lot sooner than this, and Titan defense can rush the passer which has no snaps in a real game yet this year.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee

Tampa Bay -6.5

Going to lay it here as Carolina Helpless ON OFFENSE. Starting 2 running backs out, starting 2 QBs out and Clausen has been a human turnover machine with no offensive line to block for him, that is why Matt Moore is out for the season, just getting killed when the QB drops back. Tampa did everything but win against Atlanta who is ultra tough at home, I like them here against a Panther team no offense at 11 ppg on the season, unreal stat!. Once the 3 and outs start setting in and the defense wears down again, Tampa will pull away late. Tampa already beat these guys by 13 on the road!

Play 1 Unit on Tampa

Jets -3

Cleveland not all that and off a huge upset win I always look to go against teams playing someone good in back to back weeks in the NFL after a huge upset. Jets after their bye week have looked deplorable and yet have found ways to win, and even though this is a back to back road scenario, just do not see Colt McCoy against this veteran and aggressive defense having an easy time like he did against the Pats soft defense, totally different story this week. The KEY is the fact the Jets stuff the run, and in turn it will be on McCoy to move it through the air, and here comes man on man coverage and the blitz. That spells doom and turnovers and Jets win by double digits here.

Play 1.5 Units on the NY Jets