Titans +7



Houston struggling to win right now despite a 1 loss season. They are in survial mode on defense allowing over 900 yards the past 2 weeks. 2 starting linebackers out and the offense is sinmply trading points on the score board to win. While Houston is vastly better in this game overall, remember they needed OT to beat Jax in here and also needed OT to beat Detroit on T Day. I like the Titans here plus the points, ugly dog cover. The Titans offense has awoke scoring 56 points in their last 2 games. Nothing comes easy this time of the year folks.



Play 1 Unit on Tennessee

Green Bay +2.5 to +3



Love the Pack on Sunday Night. The sputtered against Detroit last week but pulled it out late. They are playing with some serious revenge and have had this one circled since NY beat them in the Playoffs past year on their way to the Super Bowl. They have not forgotten. NY an enigma wrapped in a riddle this year and off a horrific loss at Cincy 2 weeks ago, I do not think they can cure what ails them. Injuries, penalties, turnovers, Manning in a slump. I like Green Bay as a dog here to win outright and settle the score with the hated Giants who have been a thorn in their side dating back to the Brett Favre years. NY 1-4 ATS at home this year!



Play 1 Unit on Green Bay



2 Team, 6 Point Teaser for 1 Unit. Tease Baltimore to +7 and Tease Tampa to +7. Thanks and good luck today!

Buffalo +3



Calling for the upset on a sucker line. Buffalo

Denver -10.5



What could KC possibly throw up here against red hot Denver? Name me one thing! I live in KC, and can tell you this team has thrown it in, they CANNOT Play from behind, especially against this defense and the KC defense is helpless against the fast paced Pony attack here led by Peyton Manning. Kansas City was destroyed last week by Cincy, my game of the year, and this is a team you fade the hell out of the rest of the year given a good number. 10 points or more on the road is HUGE for most teams, but KC deplorable and embarrassing and playing one of the premier teams in the AFC and coached well by John Fox who will not have them overlooking ANY team, especially on the road. If Denver has their B+ game they win by 2 TD

Cincy

Washington +3 to 3.5



Like the hook here. Dallas needed OT to beat lowly Cleveland last Sunday (Down 13-0 in first half) at home and now face a bitter rival who just destroyed NFC East division rival Philly on Sunday in a no sweat winner. Cannot trust Dallas against a quality team or even an average team, they have failed to cover 7 games in a row and despite covering their last 5 on Turkey day this is a bad matchup for Dallas and their vaunted defense is slipping, and RG III scrambling ability should keep the blitz packages at bay for Dallas. Although Dallas has won 3 out of the last 4, Washington covered in all those games and Shanahan playing with triple revenge here after getting swept last year. Washington wants this one big time and can pull off a SU win here. Dallas just way too inconsistent to bank on in any game right now as evidenced by 7 straight spread losses.



Play 1 Unit on Washington

Houston -3



Detroit has an issue not winning at home on T Day in 9 years. They are 0-8 SU and ATS for the annual Thanksgiving day Bash! Houston was busy trading TD

Chicago +

Like the Bears here and while Cutler is out, bear in mind Jason Campbell

Ravens -3.5



Anyone see Leftwich try and throw the ball against KC on Monday Night? Short week for Pitt, and yes they are brutal at home but beating KC even without Big Ben, in OT by 3, when KC is one of the worst teams in the NFL, even in a rain storm, is not a good sign. Many say there is an overreaction to Big Ben being out, I disagree. Leftwich is out of shape, not in sync with his WR;s and with his throwing motion is predictable to intercept and slow to deliver and he is way out of shape, especially game shape after no t playing a single down until Monday for over 3 years. Flacco is on fire and Ray Rice will eat up a suspect Piutt defense that gave up 100 yards to Jamal Charles last week.



Play 1 Unit on the Ravens, catching Pitt at the right time.

Green Bay - 3



Divisional game here and this is the time of the season the men get separated from the boys. Detroit got hammered last week and I was on them, and I learned my lesson. No running game, penalties and turnovers and quite frankly not a balanced attack on offense where there is allot of pressure on QB Stafford. Green Bay rolls in here on a nice run, and after early season near misses Green Bay back on track and off a bye week here. Clay Mathews is out this week and GB still slightly beat up even off a bye week, but I feel they have enough gas in the tank here to overcome Detroit in what should be a shootout somewhat. Detroit really has not faced a QB as good as Roger

St Louis



Well we all know the Rams offense is not going to score 30 a game but they are functional and move the chains against a great Niners defense last week, and we all know the Jets offense is a total joke. On back to back roadies for NY, and after getting shit hammered against a tough Seattle team and blown out by the an average Dolphins team, their offense is no better and they lack a running game, a vertical passing game, and Fisher is as a good as coach as there is in the NFL. All that said, the Rams are no barnburners but they have enough moxie at home to beat the Jets who are floundering, the team is in dissention and Rex Ryan has lost a grip on this team, looked like to me they laid down late against the Seahawks when I rewatched that game this week on DVR. No sense of direction at all on offense, and the Rams tied one of the best teams in the NFL last week and had numerous chances to win. Jeff Fisher is one of those coaches I said at the beginning of the year would win 3 games just by coaching this season, and this is one of them.



Play 1 Unit on St Louis.

Cincy -3 to 3.5 max



Kansas City looked like a decent team on Monday Night, right up until they started turning it over and showing that they do not trust their QB enough to throw the ball and stretch the field vertically. Meanwhile last Sunday Cincy DESTROYED the reining world champion NY Giants at home. If not for Big Ben getting knocked out of the MNF game, a game clearly Pitt was not up for, bottom feeder KC would have never made it to OT. Cincy's pass rush is one of he best kept secrets in the NFL, and KC's QB Cassel, if he starts instead of Brady Quinn, who is worse, will no doubt if the given the chance to throw it much, turn it over under pressure and I expect at least 3 sacks here. KC's run game is predicatble, play calling horrific and with Cincy's balanced attack, excellent recievers, KC will go down here by 10+ points. AJ Green against KC's secondary is a mis match, KC's secondary so bad they just cut a 6 million dollatr free agent. WOW. Cincy better than their record and far better coached.



Play 3 Units on Cincy.

Stellers -12.5 (will go up)

Big number ...yes but break it down. Ask yourself if Pitt is 2 TDs better than Kansas City, at home. Ask yourself who has the best defense. Ask yourself who the best QB is in this game? Rumored that Quinn will start for KC, it really does not matter I hope it is Cassel, either way KC is screwed. Ask yourself who has the best mismacth in their favor here? It is Pitts WR's against KC;s suspect secondary and no pass rush with Big Ben cherry picking his spots? Well yes it is, Pitt could name the score here and just might. Ask yourself who the best coach is in this game? WOW. One more point. Todd Haley is the Steelers OC. He was fiered as KC's head coach last year under bitter terms. Do not think for a minute he will not hesitate to BURY KC with play calling in this game. ALL STEELERS unless they fail to get dressed for the game or absolutley shit the bed, which I doubt they do under Tomlin.

Unload 2 Units on the Steelers

Houston +1

Da Bears are doing it with defense, period. Getting points off of turnovers and what is not seen is the inconsistency of the offense. While Chiacgo no doubt is a good football team, I think the Texans are better. Chicago is facing a dual threat team, Foster at RB and a great passing game and an offense with balance, who does not turn it over and is not a weak sister. Bears beating up sub par teams, this is a real test. We also have seen Cutler implode against good defenses and the Texans pass rush is one that should frustrate the fragile ego of Culter and rattle the Bears on offense. Also the last time Houston played on Sunday Night, Green Bay embarrassed them on national TV and they wantr to get some moxy back in this one. Houston 3rd overall in defense in the NFL and 2nd in scoring offense. Damn good combination.

Play the Texans for 1 unit.

Dallas -1

Yep, taking Big D on the road..scary isn't it? Not really . Philly could not muster 13 points against the Saints Defense which is deplorable and no OL for the Eagles either. Dallas comes close but cannot close, but they will close the Eagles out, I assure you. Dallas has plenty of weapons and Romo the best QB playing in this game. Expect Vick to get sacked 4 to 5 times here and Any Reid's offense is totally predictable. Also expect Whitten to have a big day as well.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas

2 Unit 2 Team 6 Point teaser. Tease Oakland to +13.5 and tease Carolina to +10

Detroit

Revenege game here and I like the Lions. They are a popular choice but warranted. Minny in a free fall right now and QB Ponder managed just under 65 yards throwing the ball last week. Detroits pass rush and presssure will be tough to contend with. Minny beat the Lions with special teams last time and I expect that not to happen this time around. Also the Lions running game is coming around as well and with balance, Stafford can open it up in play action. Anytime you have a division home team oddsmakers make that a 3 point home field and yet Minny a 1 point dog, that is a tell right there from oddsmakers.

Play 2 Units on Detroit- TOP PLAY

Indy -3



Looks like a set up line and many pros on Jax, and with around 70% of the money on Indy and the line not moving I am drinking the Kool-Aid here. I do not think QB Luck is a fluke, and he is breaking rookie recordsd all over the place and the Colts BELIEVE they are good and in the playoff hunt. With a win they go to 6-3, and that is one of the better records in the AFC gents. Jax is deplorable on both sides of the ball. Ranked dead last onoffense and going nowhere, with injury issues, and the defense is ranked 27th overall facing the NFL

Dallas +4



Surprised even myself taking the Cowboys who have issues turning it over and Romo is erratic at best with no chemistry with WR

Steelers +3.5



Yes the G Men held on last week and continue to win ugly and let Manning pull miracles out like last week and again the week before against the Redskins. The MIS MATCH here is the beat up secondary of the Giants and talented trio of WRs that Big Ben has at his disposal. That said the NY rush against the passer is solid, but Big Ben finds ways to buy time in the pocket. Again that is one of the keys to Pitt winning this game outright. Not sold on NY, they are off brutal back to back division games that went to the wire and they are just 1-3 ATS at home this year. Pitt running game getting better every week as well and RB Dwyer a handful to bring down.



Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh

Seattle -5



After watching Minnesota self destruct against Tampa

Chicago -3

I have a great source in Chicago and he tells me after last weeks lack luster performance agaibnst Carolina Coach Smith made this weeks practice intense and the Bears are very focused coming in here. In my opinion the Bears potential makes them one of the top 3 teams in the NFL, let alone in the NFC. The defense of the Bears is number 1 against the run, and RB Johnson is the Titans only hope so good luck there. The defense of Chicago is opportunistic and with Hasselbeck throwing it around under pressure I can also see turnovers playing a large role here. Chicago was sloppy last week, it will no be repeated. Tennessee is ranked worse than 16th in the NFL in both passing and rushing on offense and against this defense that is a mis match. Bears better in every stat category and have the far better QB and defense along with skill players.

Chicago Bears for 1 Unit.

Denver -6

Simply put, New Orleans is living on reputation and they have been beaten by teams less in talent than Denver already this season. They get a new coach this week so that is a distraction, and with the 30th ranked pass defense in the NFL against Peyton Manning, no matter how you slice it, that is a mis match, especially since The Saints cannot run it, and Denvers defense is very good, especially at rushing the passer. Total mis match and home field here worth 4 points. No brainer in my opinion to lay a heft y number in the NFL in this one, Manning will have a huge night and Denver should also be able to run it right at them as well.

Play 2 Units on Denver

Detroit -1

The Lions shut down Cutler and Chicago on the road Monday and will have NO issues with rookie QB Wilson who takes to the road here off a 9 out of 23 performance against the Niners last week. Seattle is 9-23 ATS their last 32 road games, and are different at home than they are on the road. Huge red zone turnovers killed Detroit Monday and while on a short week here they are at home and their defense is better in this spot. That defense against a rookie QB is a mis match, I am laying 1 point here with a good team, in a must win game against a beatable team.

Philly -3

The Eagles are off a bye week, and with a new D coordinator too! Interesting while researching this game two things jumped off the page at me. Andy Reid and or the Eagles are 11-0 SU after a bye week the last 11 years! WOW. Also the Falcons while undefeated have beaten 1 good team. Eagles under the radar screen here and still at 3-3 are one of the better teams in the NFL, especially on offense if they simply quit turning the ball over. This game goes a long way to determine their path and playoff contention status, and the Eagles are playing with revenge from last year as well. With added time to prepare, and at home against an overvalued team who is undefeated, oddsmakers have the same idea I do, installing Philly as 3 point fav. I am with them, Eagles by 7 point here if not more.

Play 1 Unit on Philly.

2 Team 6 point Teaser. Tease Chicago down to -3 and Tease Kansas City to +5. Play 1 Unit.

Lions +6.5 / 7 in some spots today!

Not counting on Chicago to come out Sharp after a bye week. The Lions off an upset win at Philly last week and much needed confidence coming in here. The Lions are quietly under the radar here as overall their defense is ranked 9th in the NFL, and their offense is ranked 2nd overall in the NFL. They lost to Minny who is good but yet outgained them by 114 yards in that game. The Lions kinda beat themselves, so turnovers is going to be key, and if Stafford takes care of the ball, they have a good chance here. Sitting at 2-3, this is a MUST WIN game to stay in the race for the playoffs and keep pace in a very strong NFC Central conference. I like to go against teams off a bye week especially if they had momenteum, and Da Bears sure did after winning 2 straight road games in blowout fashion, but one was against JAX and the other against struggling and turnover prone Dallas. I will take the points in what should be a lower scoring game. I do not trust Jay Cutler against a good defense. He is very inconsistent.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

6 Point same Game Teaser- Half unit to 1 unit max. Tease Detroit to +12.5 aqnd Teaser the Total up to 53 and take the UNDER.

Minnesota -6

Yep, laying this number against an overvalued Arizona team again with QB issues. Minny's defense is the key here and their ability to cover Fitzgerald and rush the passer is key. Minny off a bad loss at Washington where they outgained the Skins on offense putting up close to 420 yards of offense. Minny has a game on Thursday so on a short week this is a must win. Look no further than the Vikes beating San Fran in here to compare what they can do at home and Harvin should have a big day here. The Cards have dropped 2 in a row to St Louis and Buffalo at home last week and in those 2 games their offense showed their colors, they are not good (ranked 31st in the NFL in total yards) and playing this defense in a bad mood at home is going to get ugly. Minny by 14, they beat the Cards last year on the road by 24!

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

2 Team 6 point Teaser -1 Unit- tease the Patriots down to -4.5 and Tease the Packers to +1

Houston -6.5

Lots of things at Play here. The Texans avenging 3 straight losses to Baltimore, one in the playoffs last year that they still have not forgotten. Houston off an embarrasing loss Sunday Night. Baltimore lost Ray Lewis and other defense players to injury and come in here short handed after a brutal game against Dallas they never should have won. Dallas racked up over 220 yards on the ground against the Ravens, Kansas City sliced and diced them on the ground for over 250, and Adrian Foster will touch it 25+ times here and SHRED the Ravens defense all day, especially at home off a bad night against Green Bay. Hosuton's running game is KEY. Ravens last road game produced 9 points against woeful KC. Ravens 0-4 ATS last 4 games overall.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

Dallas -1 to -2 (Play out on Wednesday may go up to 2.5+)

Ok it looks like a sucker bet. A square bet! But at days end Dallas is finding ways to lose, they had the ball over 40 minutes at Baltimore and still lost. Back to back roadies, but this game is a step down in class from Baltimore. Carolina's Cam Newton suffering the sophmore blues, making bad decisions and their defesne is yeilding yards on the ground and Dallas ran it for 227 last week. Carolina lost after their bye week last season on their home field by 27 points. Dallas has their season on the line, they have the better defense, better QB, and quite frankly the better team overall. You can check stats all day long, Dallas is better.

Play 2 Units on Dallas.

San Fran -7

GIFT, absolute gift courtesy of the Patriots blowing a game and the Niners getting waxed. Otherwise this would be a 10 point line or more, trust me. Jump all over this. You know the drill with Hawks, a take at home and fade on the road. PERIOD. The Pats blew the game last week, and the Pats have issues anyway, and the Packers win at home was a fluke for Seattle. Young team, off a huge win, on the road, on a short week. San Fran

New England -3.5

That time of the season with the Pats sitting at 3-2 for them to take it to the next level. If you simply look at the QB comparison here, it is a no brainer. Brady and company clicked for 31 points last week against a good Denver defense and although Seattle

St Louis +3.5 to 4

Like the Rams here with added time to prepare off a huge win against the undefeated Cards. They stood up to a tough defense and got it done. Jeff Fisher the better coach here and while Miami

NY Jets +9

Things did not make sense on Sunday and it carrys over to tonight. Home dog on Monday Night Football, sitting at .500 with pride on the line, and no holes barred effort against one of the elite teams in the NFL. Looks easy to lay the wood here, but an intersting stat, Home dogs of 8 or more since 2009 are 23-3 ATS in those game scenarios. NY's defense will step up here and Houstons defense has some injury issues. A more competitive game than you may think...look at Kansas City yesterday, the Colts...ect..both ugly home dogs...covering and winning in the Colts case

Play 1 Unit on the NY Jets.

Bonus Play- Tease the Jets to +15 and tease the total down to 34 and take the Over. Half unit.

Chargers +1

Kansas City the walking wounded right now and I have to say that while I live here, I do not see KC, and their beat up secondary and beat up OL being able to compete with the Chargers here this afternoon, even in Arrowhead. Look for KC to try and run Charles 25 times and watch the Chargers tuff the run and dare Cassel to pass. KC

New England -4

Think the Pats are pissed? Do you think Tom Brady and company are going to lose 3 in a row? The Pats still stinging after last week

Houston pk to -1



Denver off a meltdown on Monday Night and on a short week, but that is not the reason I go against them at home, it is the fact that Houston is a GREAT NFL team, one of the Top 3 in the NFC and have the defense to confuse to slow Peyton Manning

San Fran -7



The best team in the NFC up against one of he worse. If you can stop RB Peterson with defense, where does Minny go? They cannot count on stretching the field vertically with Ponder and they have no answer for Vernon Davis and the trio of WR

Kansas City +9



Like KC here and I have not but 1 thing to back this play as KC was thrashed at Buffalo last week. Special teams blunders, no tackling, the list goes on and on, but that performance does ad value. The KEY in this game for KC and the cover is the fact that New Orleans is in disarray and they CANNOT stop the run. Kansas City can utilize their 3 back system and Jamal Charles should have a big day on the ground for KC. This does open up play action passing and most importantly EAT THE clock AND KEEP AN INEFFECTIVE New Orleans offense off the field. A contrarian play, and Kansas City better than advertised. New Orleans at 0-2 laying this number is fundamental handicapping where there is a mismatch like this. I believe this win will not come easy.



Play 1 Unit on Kansas City

.



Carolina anywhere from -1 to -2.5..line all over the place, get it under 3.

Like the Panthers at home off a big win against New Orleans. NY is struggling, beat at home by Dallas badly, and then struggling against Tampa before another Manning 4th quarter comback. NY not the team of last year, and RB Bradshaw out, and WR Nicks is out, both a HUGE part of the offense. NY has injury problems on defense again as well. Panthers QB Newton poses issues as he can run and extend plays and his mixed bunch of WRs is better than average and under the radar. Common opponent was Tampa, however in a 6 point loss Carolina only ran the ball for 10 yards! They have fixed that.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

Baltimore -125

On the road here against a team they have dominated as of late winning the last 5 in a row. A Total Mound mis-match with Tillman on the hill for the O's, a 7-2 record and under a 3 ERA his last 3 starts and a 0.96 WHIP. Seattle counters with Noesi who has been deplorable all year with a 2-11 record, a near 7 ERA his last 3 games, all losses, and his WHIP is 1.56 against a team who can hit. More run support for a better pitcher, and a better team. I am laying this very short number. The Mariners are hitting right handers on the season as a team at .226, that gets you nowhere in MLB!

Play 1 Unit on Balitmore




Pick: Bronco's

Analysis: Denver +3

Going to take the points here with Peyton Manning and Denver. Judging by last weeks oppoenets, Denevr dominated a far better team than did Atlanta who tore up KC, but terhn again so did Buffalo on Sunday. The KEY in this game is the better defense and that is Denver's . They can cobver the trio of WRs that Atlanta ghas and still rush the passer and Atlanta does not have that. Manning is a force to be recoked with and while Atlanta one of the NFC's elite teams, they also do not match up well here man for man. Also Denvers head coach Fox knows all about the Falcons from his days with Carolina, I like Denver here in an upset, and have seen Manning on MNF wins some games with his prowess.

Play 1 Unit on Denver.

49ers -6.5 to 7

Ok so the Lions are a darling and every likes to root for them. They almost lost at home to St Louis last week and needed some pate magic to win by 3. San Fran is the real deal, the defense one of the top defenses in the NFL, and they are well coached by Harbaugh. Detroit avenging a loss last year but with playmakers Moss and Gore along with their tight end being a stud, it provides numerous defensive issues to contends with because you cannot man cover due to the running game and they have receivers at San Fran that are difficult to cover. Home opener on national TV for one of the NFC

NY Giants -7

It takes a big commitment to lay a fall number of 7 in the NFL, but Tampa is in trouble here. NY has had extra time to digest the debacle against Dallas and given the fact Tom Coughlin is one of the best coaches in the NFL, I will take him and his Giants on a 10 days

Baltimore +2.5 (just bet line Thursday) line dropping to +1 IN MANY SPOTS. GET ON IT NOW!

Like the Ravens on the road as a dog here. I know it is a short week off MNF, but they looked absolutely flawless and QB Flacco was off the map. An aging defense looked sharp and quick and had QB Dalton on the run most the night, even without Suggs. Ravens a complete team with special teams included. Philly has all the tools but looked lost and out of sync against the hapless browns and QB Flacco vastly better than Rookie Weeden who gave them 4 picks last week where Philly managed a 1 point win and had turnover issues of their own. Ravens one of the top 3 teams in AFC, and while Philly has an offense, I see the Ravens keeping Vick from running it and rolling out and that contains his talents and Vick loves to throw into trouble and with Ed Reed and company roaming, turnovers will be the different. Ray Rice at RB every bit as good as McCoy and Ravens can flat out stop the run.

1 unit on Ravens

Cincy +7

In a heated battle I am on Cincy here. The Ravens are going to a more progressive offense with little or no huddle and Cincy has the defense to contain it. Ray Rice will have his numbers and Flacco will have a decent day, but Cincy has a good secondary, decent pass rush and the offense of Cincy is capable of maintaining drives and keeping this Division game in hand. Both teams will be gunning for a win after the Steelers loss last night. Also to note that a 7 point spread on MNF is very difficult to cover and we are dealing with 3 fall numbers this game is either on or through for Cincy. I am not sold on an aging defense of Baltimore, Ray Lewis, Suggs and Reed are good but not as dominant and in years past. Cincy is 4-1-1 ATS the last 6 and were beat both times last year by 7 and 8 points respectively so a little division rival double revenge is at hand too. Always a tough game, I am taking the points here.

Play 1 Unit on the Bengals

A 2 team 6 point Teaser for 1 Unit as well. Tease Cincy to +13 and tease San Diego to +7.



Angels -153

Slighly over what I like to lay, but I will. Look at the A's they are hot but when you look deeper they are just 2-7 against teams with a winning record their last 9 attempts. LA is red hot, have the Red Hot Dan Haran on the hill and the Angels have cashed 12-1 their last 13.

Play 1 Unit on the LA Angels

Atlanta -2.5 / 3

Not sold on KC, IN THIS GAME. I think KC can win the AFC West division but the secondary has major issues, corner back Flowers has yet to suit up and doubtful he will play and with the firepower and sheer talent that Atlanta has in the WR unit, they are well equipped to dismantle KC. KC will want to establish the run and put as little pressure on QB Cassel as they can because he does not stretch the field vertically well. Add in the fact WR Bowe just signed and saw no fall camp and no playing time and he is the best WR weapon KC has, that spells trouble. KC a good team in a controlled game, but playing catchup having to trade punches this early on with a beat up secondary and uneasy WR unit, this is a mismatch against a Top 5 team in the NFC. Even at Arrowhead they lose.

Play 1 unit on Atlanta

NY Jets -2.5

Have a feeling. The Bills have all the parts, a decent coach but none of the peices fit together. Good and underrrated RB, good WR and some new poeple on defense to make the Bills a contender..but wait they were 0-4 in the NFLX and the QB position so bad they signed Tavarius Jackson...Fitzpatrick struggled all last year and in preseason from what I witnessed. I have a feeling just watching NY that the preseason was a fluke. Sanchez and yes, Tebow, add a new demension to the offense, the running game will be better and the Jets defense will be stout at home against a struggling offense with some decent skill players but no sense of chemistry. Getting any team in this division at home laying 3 or under after getting dropped down from a 4.5 point opener as a slight home favorite (besides Miami) is a good line. Jets better than preseason showed. Bills have red zone issues and looked confused on offense in the NFLX, I feel it carries over in week 1 on the road.

Play 1 Unit on New York Jets

NY Giants +2.5

Boils down to 3 things in this game. The better QB who is just unshakeable is Peyton Manning. Manning has 2200 more pass yards that Smith for the year! Alex Smith was on the scrap heap a year ago. The Niners defense is solid but so is the Giants. Giants have allowed 12 ppg their last 3, the Niners 25 ppg! Who is better? Tom Coughlin is one of the best coaches and most underrated coaches in the NFL, and if history has proven anything, the Giants can flat out win on the road, and history usually repeats itself gents. Solid running game, a hell of a pass rush, and the Niners blew their wad last week in a thriller against the Saints while the Giants we busy dominating the best team in football on the road. Giants by 3-6. Experience counts here. Giants 7-1 ATS last 8 playoff games. Giants out stated San Fran in a 20-27 loss earlier this season, they make it up on the scoreboard this game.

Play 1 Unit on the NY Giants.

Bonus 2 Team 6 point Teaser. Tease the Giants to +8.5 and Tease the Pats to -1. Play 1 Unit.

New England -7

This line dropped from 9 to 7.5 and on Wednesday Night dropped to a key number of 7. Brady versus Flacco? No contest. While I hear and read so much about Baltimore

NY Giants +7.5

Hot team against the Packers who more or less were unimpressive their last 3 games including a total meltdown at Kansas City in a loss. Bye week or not, one of their key coaches son dies this week for GB providing a distraction, and I can assure you Tom Coughlin the better coach in this game without question. Given the fact that many of these Giants won an NFC Championship here 3 years ago, on this field against a Favre led Packer team, they will have no fear. NY

Baltimore -7.5

What is Houstons strength? Running the ball. What does Balt. Do against the run? They rank 2nd on defense in the NFL at stopping the run. Well rested, defensively better than Houston who is no slouch but fatigue will be a factor for Houston. A rookie QB in the sense of the word in a road start in the post season and not totally 100% healthy against Suggs, Lewis and Reed could prove fatal if the run game is shut down, which is exactly what I am banking on. Houston does a nice job on defense but facing Ray Rice on the road, 100% healthy is going to be a large task if their offense goes 3 and out very much, which they will. Ravens pull away late. Baltimore is an experienced team, Flacco if on his game can be very good, and the home field here worth 4 points alone.

Play 2 / 3 Units on the Ravens

New Orleans -3 to 3.5

Yes the Niners are good on defense, yes everyone is saying look what they did to Pittsburgh in here, but wait, Pitt had 4 key injuries to starters, Big Ben was immobile and ect. Lots of big services on 49ers, I disagree. The Niners are solid, but can they REALLY stop an offense like this. Bear in mind New Orleans in their last 3 games have given up only 20 a game. Niners QB has 17 TD passes all year, Brees has 49. Too many playmakers for New Orleans to succumb to a team who played in the NFC West, the worst of all divisions in football, at home or not. New Orleans on a roll, and while I do not think they come close to their season average in points in this one, I think they win by 6. Niners are young, with a rookie head coach. Saints vastly experienced. 2 Deep at RB and Sproles is a playmaker. Saints 8-0 ATS last 8 games when favored. WOW.

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans

Bonus 2 Team 6 point Teaser

Atlanta +3

NY is in trouble here. Wanna know why? DEFENSE. They do not match up well here and they have the overall better running game, overall better defense and more playmakers on the field. NY has had 3 brutal gut check games and Atlanta still stinging form a playoff blowout loss last year. The Dirty Birds under the radar screen with all the talk about Green Bay and New Orleans, but this is a capable, well coached team and healthier and mentally more rested than the Giants who made the stand last week even to get here, and in a bad division. Remember the Falcons have 6 losses this year, 3 of them to the Saints and Packers and an opening day debacle at Chicago. Better team, better defense, getting points. Look for Tony Gonzales to have a huge day against this secondary. Giants 3-6 ATS as a favorite this year!

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

New Orleans -11

Top Play without question. Detroit is young, inexperienced and in way over their head in this one. New Orleans has not forgot the bitter taste of last years wild card beat down in Seattle, they were injury riddled in that one but none the less it hurt. No one hotter in the NFL than the Saints, undefeated at home and their average score at home is 49-17 and only 2 teams have scored over 20 in here and one of them was not Detroit who took a 31-17 loss in here already. 3 punch RB system, Sproles running wild, a defense that plays very well at home against an erratic QB Stafford at times, all leads to a Saints blowout this Saturday on a field where they are 8-0 SU this season. No doubt Detroit improved, but youth and mistakes get in the way here as frustration sets in, Peyton also a way better coach and knows the importance of this one. Saints will be ready and fired up big time. They pull away late. 42-21 type game.

Play 2 Units on New Orleans

Arizona -2.5 to 3 MAX



I like the fact that both these teams were eliminated last week, and both lost their games. One thing I notice about Arizona all year, especially lately, they do not give up. They were getting hammered by Cincy last week and made a huge comeback. When you have two teams playing for nothing, I like the home team in season finale better than the road team. AZ is 5-2 at home, have beaten the mighty Niners in here and Dallas. They can get the running game going here they can name the score. Seattle is a different animal when away from home. We are looking at motivation here, and AZ will have more at home. I had this line at -5 so there is some real value here under a fall number as well. The Seahawks have dropped 18 out of 24 road games, I do not see them winning here and AZ is a SOLID home fav at a short number.



TOP PLAY

Houston +3



Home dog, playoff team versus a MUST WIN game for Tennessee. After 2 straight losses, do not think for a minute that the coaches at Houston want to limp into the playoffs. The Titans struggle and lose when RB Johnson is held in check, and while Houston has some serious issues on offense with injuries and a learning curve at QB with Yates, I expect the Texans staff to open up the playbook more and expand it for Yates headed into the playoffs. False fav in my book, Houston

Atlanta +6.5

Two of the last 4 games have been OT games between these guys and in the last 4 games it has been a 3 point contest. Atlanta can stop the run, and while much has been made about the Saints wide open offense, they are run the ball to set up the pass. Atlanta has a way of devising gameplans to keep the Saints in check. Atlanta needs this win for a playoff spot and have more motivation and are well rested. Stats and ect are boring at this point in writeups, Altanta gfves the Saints all they want and then sum.

Play 2 Units on Atlanta.

Oakland +2.5

Love going against teams off an upset win, and KC pulled the biggest upset of the season last week. Oakland off a tough loss, and avenging a 28-0 home loss to KC with Carson Palmers first start in that game. Oakland has more to play for and the dog in this series is always a strong look, covering 18 out of the last 26 and the road team in this series is an amazing 20-5-1 ATS the last 26 games between these 2 hated rivals.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland.

2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Tease Minnesota to +12.5 and Tease Carolina down to -1.5 for 1 Unit. Merry Christmas, best of luck, and Thanks. Tony G

NY Giants +3

Get on this early. This is a simple pay in my opinion. Washington off a bad loss where they failed to show up, turned it over and played like it was the preseason. 2 Wins and the Giants are in. Lets look at the in town rivalry here. Who has the best QB, best coach, better running game? ALL IN THE GIANTS FAVOR, and they are getting points. QB Sanchez for the Jets is killing them, lack of a running game as well. Giants have played a brutal schedule and battle tested and I like Coughlin to out coach loud mouthed Ryan here as well. Last 3 games, Giants offense 427 yards a game, the Jets 273 yards. Enough said.

Play 2 Units on the Giants. Game of the Month. Be a good one to put in a Teaser somewhere too.

Washington +7

Not sold on NY after 2 brutal games, and a OT thriller in which Dallas handed them the game, can cover this number against a division rival. Washington played VERY well against the Pats last week and they have nothing to lose here, which is always a dangerous spot late in the season. I have seen this scenario a thousand times in my 20 years, division games against weak sisters with nothing to lose results in a nailbiter and sometimes a loss. Grab the points here. Low scoring game

Play 1 Unit

3 UNIT

Dallas -

Got to think Dallas is totally focused on this game on Saturday. Huge playoff implications and Dallas is under the gun here. Tampa has lost their way, coach on the hot seat, got blasted last week by pathetic Jax and had 7 turnovers. For those of you living under a rock, Jax was destroyed by Atlanta on Thursday and to get waxed by them is simply a tell tale sign that Tampa , with injuries all over the secondary, is due for another blowout loss. Dallas will be able to close a game out here for once against a team that should pose no threat to them. When your defense makes Blaine Gabbert look like an All Pro, Romo should have a big night. Last 2 at home Tampa was pounded by Carolina and Houston. The BIG key is Tampa

Analysis: Seattle -10

These double digit MNF teams are something I hesitate to take every time through years of experience, but I cannot make a case in any stat or respect for the Rams. Injury riddled, especially at QB, lame duck coach in my opinion, and an offense scoring 9 ppg on the road and giving up 24. Seattle pounded Philly in here, and have a running game that should slice up the Rams defense. Seaatle averaging uinder 300 yards a game on offense but in their last 3 with that average have managed 24 ppg. The sea chickens are good at home and Pete Carrol coaches them up well. The Rams scoring ability is very limited with weak play at the QB postion and they lack ANY big play capability at all. They do not stretch the field vertically. Only 7 TD passes all year for the Rams, UNREAL! Hawks won 24-7 AT St Louis already and the Rams were healthier. Birds off 10 day rest and Rams on back to back roadies to west coast. Carrol will want to showcase on national TV...blowout. 28-7 Seattle

Play 1.5 to 2 Units on The Seahawks.
More Info...: Best of Luck..look for Bowl games this week, and bet them early..lines will move..FYI..Tony

NY Giants +3 to 3.5



Kicking myself for not getting this out before Thursday as you still can find it at 3.5 at some places, that is where I wagered it but would have pulled the trigger at 3 as well. FALSE FAVORITE here in my book. Dallas is a paper tiger. Great angle here as NY

2 Team 6 Point Teaser

Cincy -3

TJ Yates gets exposed here for Houston. First road start ever and the DEFENSE of the Bengals at home will be the difference. Houstons defense no slouch, but this offense can muster points here at home. Better set up for Cincy at home all the way around in a MUST WIN game. Houston got damn lucky against Atlanta last week, Cincy off a beat down at rival Pitt. This is a MONSTER game for Cincy. QB Dalton the better QB, WR Johnson out Houston, limited weapons on offense and Cincy keeps RB Foster in check. Although Cincy on a slide, look at the yards they allowed versus points. Gave up points but yards allowed was under 300 in the Pitt blowout loss. Cincy due HUGE.

Play 1 Unit on the Bengals

San Diego -3

Short and Sweet today. Jacksonville can run it, that

Dallas -4.5



Reality check for Dallas. They need a road win. They do not have one. Arizona is a joke. 3 wins out of their last 10 games, and on offense they stink. QB issues against this Cowboys defense? Cards run defense against the Cowpokes rushing attack? Forget about it. AZ has had 3 wins in the last 10 weeks, 2 against St. Louis and 1 against the hapless Eagles. Dallas avenging back to back losses against the Cards. Breakout game for5 Big D, all over them here.



Play 1 Unit on Dallas



BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Tease Baltimore down to -.5 and Tease Pittsburgh to -.5 for a 1.5 Unit Teaser

Denver +2



Again my theme this week is RUNNING the ball. Denver due to fall? I think not against the hapless Vikes who still are without AP at running back. Lack of a running game is brutal this time of year in the NFL. Since Tebow has started, the Broncos have simply been unstoppable on the ground, chewing clock and in their last 5 games have held opponents to 12 ppg on defense. That is a winning combination, not matter the curiosity or questioning of Tim Tebow at QB. Denver is very well coached and come in here healthy as well. Denver just a game out behind the Raiders who have a tougher than expected game at Miami this week, a ton on the line for Denver here, possible division lead after Sunday, they will be very prepared.



Play 1 Unit on Denver.

Tennessee +2.5

Saints -7



No doubt here about mis-matches. The Giants secondary is depleted and they are playing one of the NFL's quickest triggermen at QB, on a very strong home field worth 4 points alone tonight. Is New orleans 3.5 poinst better after tyhe home field on MNF? Well if QB Vince Young can beat them what do you think Drew Brees and company will do to them at home on a Monday Night? Saints heads and shoulders above NY and QB Manning is a turnover machine when pressed. Injuries are a major concern for NY at RB and DB's and NY's pass rush minimized by QB Brees and his quick release. Saints scoring 31 and allowing 18 their last 3 games and Giants could not beat a backup QB at honme last week against the hapless Eagles who were waxed by a good team on Sunday. Line all over the place, bet this early...



Play 1.5 Units on New Orleans.

Bears +4

Who has Oakland beat with carson Palmer 3 weeks out of retirement? The lost to kansas City and beat Cleveland and Minny. HUGE step up in Class, and even without Cutler, whom oddsmakers have made a huge adjustment in this line, they can run it and their defense is way too myuch fro Palmer and company. Palmer has niot been tested with a good defense, he will on Sunday. Bears win it by 6.

Play 1 Unit

Houston -4

Even without their starting QB, look for Houston in a low scoring one here to run the hell out of it against Jax. Houston a 7-3 team who already beat Jax by 10, and the line here is 7 points less than that one. Huge adjustment by oddsmakers. Hosuton defense will give Gabbert fits, Jax has the worst offense in the NFL and have only cover 4 out of 14 their last 18 against teams with a winning record.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

2 Team 6 Point Teaseer for 1 Unit. tease the Total Up to 42 in the Jax / Houston Game and take the Under and tease Cincy down to -1.5.

San Fran +3.5

Going out on a limb and saying the defense and running game both better for San Fran and the consistency of this team, even against bad teams is good. Baltimore banged up and all world LB Lewis will play and not be 100% Running game of Niners stronger and they are 4-0 against teams from the east this year. They finish games, play hard and I like the upset here. Ravens hit and miss, Niners always spot on. Big test for young Harbaugh, I say he passes it with a 3 point win.

Play 1 Unit

Green Bay -6

Statement game for the Packers. Off a poor outing against Tampa last week, one thing is for sure, the vaunted defense of Detroit was giving up 35 points to Cam Netwon. Not good news for turnover prone Detroit, whose running game is on their 4th back off the street and trust me, QB Stafford will be on his heels all day and the secondary of Detroit is totally out manned here. I could go on and on, but why. Home or not, Green Bay is the best team in the NFL and on national TV will want to prove it. Coming off a tough game look for GB to be totally focused here.

Play 1 Unit on GB

NY Giants -4.5

Giants one of the better teams in the NFC despite a recent loss at San Fran. Philly is total mess, QB position unclear but I hope Vick does play with 2 broken ribs, my sportswriter contact said at practice Thursday he could not hardly even stretch out with the team. Neither backup worthy of going against NY defense, especially at home. Manning playing well, NY can shut down an offense with an unhappy WR Jackson, and a team in disarray. NY leads the NFL in sacks and whether it be Vick, or Young or whoever, expect a heated rush on the QB and RB McCoy to find limited opportunities against a stout run D. NY will score plenty of points to cover this.
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Game of the Month

Chicago -3.5

Love Da Bears at home. Some teams right now are peaking and others are falling by the wayside. Norv Turner has lost his grip on the Chargers. The Bears running game and ability to balance their attack with Matt Forte at RB and catching it in open space is a huge relief to QB Cutler, who now is finding time in the pocket to make plays. The Bears convert third downs at a high pace and move the chains and are far more physical of a team than the Chargers. No running for SD, and QB Rivers is forcing the ball and turning it over.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

JAX +1

Out of 10 home games, the Browns have covered just 1. Out of 3 wins the Browns have won those games by a total of 12 points combined. Battle of ugliness here no doubt but Jack Del Rio coaching for his life, and his running game will bail him out with a team allowing 5.1 yards per carry. The Jags defense has stepped up, and allowing just 11 ppg their last 3 games and the Browns are RB by committee right now, Jax is better, even on the road,

Play 1 Unit on Jax

Jets -4.5

Really not afraid to lay it as Jets on very short week with travel after deflating loss to Pats on Sunday Night in front of a national TV Audience. The reason is I saw Denver play in person on Sunday in KC where I live, and despite a win, Tebow passing for 2 out 8 with 69 yards will not beat the Jets. No doubt Jets spitting mad and this is a must win game for them with the Bills on deck. Denvers top 2 RBs out for this one, and no doubt the secondary for the Jets will creep up and stop the Tebow express on the ground. Rex Ryan smart enought to stop Denver rush attack because they have no passing game, which allows DBs for Jets in man on man coverage while NY stacks the line. A college offense against Ryan coached defnse is going nowerhre, and if it does then NY should just hang it up for the season. Not impressed with Denver win in KC, KC poorly coached with no offense.

Play 1 Unit on NY Jets

Packers -13

Looks easy to take the Pack at home, and one should be wary of a big number here on MNF since Minny played the Pack tough last time they played and it was QB painters first start. Right? Actually it is that easy in my opinion. GB has had a look at Painter on film now, and with all the LB's and DE's for Green Bay being vocal about DC Capers not opening it up and letting them rush the passer, no better place than a night game at home on MNF. Bottom line, The Pack are a machine on offense, QB Rodgers is playing as well as any QB in recent memory (Brett Favre who?) and the Pack offense will run it up to 40 here against a suspect team, who walks in here with no chance unless GB fails to come out of the locker room. Green Bay will put on a show for national TV. Under the fall number of 14. Yes a big number in the NFL but we are talking about the BEST TEAM HANDS DOWN in football right now, at home, on MNF where they always play well. 42-20 is my prediction. Sniff the Over if you want and or tease both to your flavor..should be a good one to play with on the tease with my thoughts here gents.

Play 2 Units, lay the wood.

Kansas City -3



Love KC at home off a very bad loss and back to back roadies for Denver. Tebow madness struck in Oakland, but bear in mind KC also pounded the Raiders 28-0 2 weeks ago. KC does not turn it over. KC also beat the Chargers in here on MNF and clearly are better than Denver in the race for AFC West title. Denver allowing 28 ppg on defense will be their demise, look for KC to pull out all the stops, and look for Tebow to be blitzed by by KCs defense all day and KC has the horses to do it in this matchup.



Play 1 Unit on KC

Pittsburgh -3



OK so Cincy has a great record, but they have played no one. And when the did they lost. The Steelers off a bad beat on Sunday Night against division rival Baltimore, and Pitt will not lose back to back division games, they are one of tghe best teams in the NFL. Cincy gets exposed here, and this will be the best defense that young QB Dlaton has seen yet in his short NFL career.


Play the Steelers for 1 Unit

Pittsburgh -3 Game of the Month



Wantesd to pull the trigger bigger here, but 2 Units is plenty on the Steelers. beats at home, they just handed the Pats a beatdown, and Balitmore is just in a funk on offense. Steelers defense banged up at LB here which is my only hestation of thinking this might get ugly for the Ravens, with QB Flacco struggling and flat out piss poor play calling on Cam Camerons behalf as OC of the Ravens. the Under here might be worth a look as well, but a Night game in Pittsburgh with revenge in mind off an embarrassing 35-7 opening day butt whipping by the Ravens is too good to pass up. Big ben just hitting his stride and really at the top of his game.



Play 2 Units on Steelers.


BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Play 1 Unit. Tease Oakland Down to -2 and tease Atlanta down to -1. All lines used were from Just Bet on Thursday.

New Orleans -8



Tampa has scored 17 ppg their last 3 and allowed 30. WOW. New Orleans biggest weakness is run defense, but Tampa banged up at RB, QB Freeman wearing a brace all week on his thumb but will start, and Tampa's pass defense and secondary is a mess. None of this is good news for the Bucs on Sunday. New Orleans off a tough loss to the woeful Rams, and are avenging a loss, and are at home where they tend to turn it on big time on offense. Look for New Orleans to open it up here against a weak defense and an offense in a funk, and short handed.



Play 1 Unit on New Orleans

Chargers -3

Tough not to take a home dog in a division rival game, avenging an earlier season loss at SD. Not buying into the trap line I feel by oddsmakers, even on a Halloween at Arrowhead which will be rockin tonight. I will be at this game, but am going with my head here and not my heart. KC beat QB's Painter, Boller and Palmer and Donovan McNabb. All 3 wins have come against teams in turmoil or flat out bad teams. Oakland was a fluke with the QB issues they had, which resulted in 6 interceptions, 2 for pick sixes. Chargers off a bad loss to the Jets with added time to think about the blown lead in that one, they are the better team here, Gates and Jackson are BOTH back tonight and KC has matchup issues in the secondary. KC's recent wins hide bigger issues and it shows tonight. Forget trends and ATS numbers the Chargers are better. Bear in mind that 2 of KC's 3 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 1-13. Many thought SD was going to win the AFC this year, and have yet to play their best game, what better time than MNF?

Play 1 Unit on San Diego

Cleveland +9



Looks too good to be true. And it is. Not sold on San Fran, and while I took them against Detroit, they caight Detroit off a short week and brutal MNF game. Their only other quality win was Tampa Bay. Cleveland under the radar screen here, they have Hillis back at RB and this is a ton of points. Bye weeks kill momentum for hot teams many times, and I see that happening here. Ugly cover and ugly team, but the Browns under Dick Jauron have a top 10 defense Clevelands running game solid, McCoy is serviceable at QB and San Fran

Washington +6



Bills off a bye week, and playing in Toronto. Bills lost 2 Key players on defense, a defense which is getting shredded for over 420 yards a game. Washington has some injuries too, but their offense is ranked in the top 15 in the NFL and this is too many points off a bye week. Washington has the better defense here, and they lead the NFL in sacks. This will not come easy for the Bills. I like the points.



Play 1 Unit on Washington


Bonus 2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Tease Seattle to +9 and Tease the Ravens down to -6.5. Play 1 Unit. Thanks and best of luck..Tony George

Saints -14

Laying 14 on a 2 star play in the NFL? Well in this case, which is rare, I sniff a 20+ point blowout here. Indy winless and will remain so. Saints off a bitter beat down where they gave it away, and Brees off a 3 pick Sunday and this week he faces a defense that allowed 27 to Cincy and 28 to KC at home. Saints will roll, WR Colsten back, solid running game at at home. Peyton in the booth not an issue, Saints score 35 here without much sweat.

PLay 2 Units on New Orleans.

Bonus 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Tease the Broncos UP to + 7 and Chargers up to +8 for 1 Unit.

KC +5.5 to 6 or higher. 6 is my line as of now. Line moving up on Thursday night.

Division Game, rivals and QB issues all over the place for Oakland. Never saw a team lose and owner to death, lose their starting QB, bring one out of retirement, start him (possible), and catch a hated division rival off a bye week, and lay over a fall number and KC playing with double revenge from last year. KC getting better, ripped off 2 straight wins, multiple RB roatations and QB Cassel playing better and spreading it around. QB issue major distraction for Raiders and expect KC to load up against the run, thats what Oakland will do 80% of the time in this one, easy to scheme. KC 7-1 ATS ast 8 in Oakland. Low scoring, 5-1 last 6 have went under, like the big points this line has shot up to.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City

San Fran +4.5

Love getting this over a fall number on Sunday. Detroit off a huge emotional game on Monday Night, short week and solid team coming in here. Detroit showed a weakness against the run with Forte and the Bears Monday Night, they overpursue on defense and if they do, Frank Gore can beat them. Also the Bears did not have NEAR the talent at WR as San Fran does and while QB Smith may bend, he has not broken all season. San Fran defense is solid as well. Detroit a good team but tghis is a tough spot for them.

Play 1 Unit on San Fran

NY Giants -3

The Bills are a paper tiger. 5 turnovers given tothem at home and win by 7 agaist the Eaghles. they were outgained by over 1540 yards last week, and against Cincy were outgained by 180 yards... NY will move the cvhains and have successs running the ball. NY is a great passs rush team even without Tuck, and all things considered, they are in a foul mood after getting throttled by Seattle last week and have a bye week on deck. They win by 10+ here in my opnion.

Play 2 Units on NY - Game of the Month

Philly -2.5

Say what? Eagles have basically crapped down their all season. THIS IS DEFINING MOMOENT. Buffalo exposed last week alittle and while good, Philly on paper is far better, more experience, better coaching, better and bigger playmakers. Look for Andy Reid to coach the best game of the season and for the Eagles to put it all together this Sunday, if not they are destined for a 6 win season maybe. That is how crucial this game is. As good as Buffalo is in the media, bottom line is they are allowing 29 ppg their last 3 games and that does not make you elite in the NFL, and if Philly puts it together on offense with their playmakers, they can score 30+ here asnd win it outright.

Play 1 Unit on Philly

Bonus 2 Team 6 Point Teaser for 1 Unit. Tease New England DOWN to -3 and Tease Arizona to +9

Cincy +3

Who owns the BEST Red Zone defense in the NFL? The Bengals. They just defeated a good Bills team last week, and between the 2 rookie QBs in this game, Andy Dalton is far above Gabbert. Jax has no downfield weapons, Cincy does. Jax gets an edge at RB, but Cincy no slouch and 3 deep at RB. Cincy is under the radar screen right now but a solid team, good defense, and better coaching with the best QB playmaker of the two on the field.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

Indy -1.5

Easy money here in my mind. Indy has played well the last 2 games and have plenty of defense here for KC to struggle against. Actually Indy

Indy +10



One thing I took away from Indy game last week, that given time and some reps, QB Painter can perform. He DOES have weapons and word out of Indy with my sopurce, is that sidelined Manning has had his hand in things all week with the young QB. Indys defense will pose issues for all world QB Freeman, and while Tampa is a good team and should win this game, Indy proved against a stout Pitt team they can play and are closing the gap weekly without their stud QB. The pass rush for Indy is the Key here and Freman under pressure is not as good as an experienced veteran QB yet. 10 points is HUGE in the NFL, as Indy is looking at this game as a MUST WIN and Tampas offense not all that explosive and Indy sneaky good at stopping the run, just 3.3 yards per carry. Closer than you think, I will take double digits in the NFL on MNF almost everytime.



Play 1 Unit on the Colts.

Atlanta -4.5



Anyone who sees any other scenario other than Atlanta being heads and shjoulders above a hapless Seattle team, then so be it. This is a MUST WIN for Seattle, Saints are rolling and Tampa is too. Atlanta will pound the rock here and play action all day. A physical team is no match for Seattle, That is why Pitt blanked them 24-0. Atlanta has played a brutal schedule against Playopff contenders and beat Phbilly at home when healthy. Seattle ranks 31st in offense and their QB is rotten. Atlana far superior in matchups, they win BIG. They will be focused.



Play 2 Units on Attlanta - Game of the Month



2 team 6 Point teaser. Tease Chicago down to a PICK - and tease Tennessee to +8 for 1 Unit

Cincy +3 to 3.5 If you can get thr hook, get it.



A popular choice but Bills off an upset win and feeling good, but this is no easy road trip. I like to go against teams off upset wins who travel. A few mistakes that go away and the Bengals could be 3-0 as well. Benson back at RB but if not I like RB Scott as well, and while there is no radar blips for Cincy, the Bills are due to fall and I have seen this 100s of times over the years. Cincys Dalton at QB has rated over 100 twice this season in games, and is gaining plenty of experince. Cincy has covered 8 out of the last 12 times as a home dog, and if you look, their conference is brutal. Bills get beat.



Play 1 Unit on Cincy

Chicago -6



Love the Bears here. Look at the QBs they have faced and this is a breeze, and Cam Newton will see a strong front 4 and Urlacher all day long. Carolina is not playing a rookie QB and Jax this week, they are playing a Bear team whose QB under a massive rush still threw for over 250 yards last week against the Packers. Carolina is one team that Da Bears can expose with their running game and Forte and hit some big plays downfield. Carolina cannot trade punches, and Bears are determined not to lose back to back at home.



Play 1 Unit on Chicago

Washington +3.5

INJURIES. Romo not 100%. Jones doubful at RB, your top 2 WR's are out. Your center on the OL is questionable? Look at the body of work by Washington who comes in here healthy. Beating Tampa and the Giants, ability to come from behind and win against AZ, they beat the Steelers, Colts and lost by 3 to the Ravens in preseason, their defense allows just 17 ppg. They have the better running game coming in here, better defense and healthier team. Dallas at near 100% had to rally to beat the Niners with Romo doing a hell of a performance to pull it off. NO QB with a broken rib is never 100%, one hit and he is done. The secondary of Dallas is suspect to big plays and Grossman can throw it on them and hang tight. Dallas at about 75% for this one with skill players out everywhere or not 100%. Have to take the Skins.

Play 1 Unit on Washington

Philly -6.5 to 7.5 Line on and off because of Vick. Take them to 8.5 now that the line is off and on....

I would lay this even if Vick does not play. When you look at Philly, the one thing will I see when reviewing both of Phillys game this year is SPEED. They are fastest and possibly the most athletic team in the NFL. Off a tough loss on Monday, in which Vick had a slight concussion, I feel they would have won it with him. The NY Giants depleted secondary against these WRs and tight ends is a serious mismatch. The Giants have massive injury issues on the defensive side of the ball and Philly speed and skill players will expose this far more than the Rams could. If you watched the MNF game, it was apparent it was a sloppy game and NY playing anyone who was decent would have been in trouble. Playing on the road where in a series where they are 0-6 in I feel the Eagles speed and big play capability will be a huge difference and a double digit win. Home opener for Philly, the fans will be rabid.

Play 1 Unit on Philly. This is a Hilton Super book contest pick for my team. If Vick does not play for any reason back this down to a half unit play, but I still like Philly as they are deep in weapons and are not a 1 trick pony like Indy.

Miami +2.5 to 3

Lets face it, Miami is better than 0-2. I am not impressed with Cleveland at 1-1, losing to the Bengals at home by 10 and beating up a Colts team in total disarray. Not impressed. Like Miami on both sides of the ball here and their defense is better. Losing to the Pats is no embarrassment and a tough game against a good Houston team is not like they lost to KC or something. Miami

Carolina -3.5

Love the Panthers here who competed with Green Bay last week to a certain degree and no doubt that while young and raw, rookie sensation Cam Newton is the real deal. Jacksonville cannot stretch the field vertically, and word is Gabbert gets the start, and a rookie QB who struggled in preseason, on the road in his first start is going to produce opportunity for Carolina defense and turnovers. Jax will stack the line and try and run it and keep it vanilla, but a team like Carolina who is 0-3 laying this number is an indication from the books with the hook on the line that they like Carolina and are baiting you to take the hook and Jax, I am not buying it. Carolina offense had a 54-31 first down advantage against AZ and Green Bay with no wins. That offense makes the difference against a sputtering Jax offense this week.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

Dallas -3

All over this one, as San Fran will come back to reality. Dallas started off last week like they started t=off the previous year, giving a game away with mistakes, as they dominated the Jets. Expect Romo and company to be able to pick apart the secondary, expect Dallas Special teams to execute better, and the mis match here is QB Alex Smith for the Niners against a heavy pass rush from Dallas. Dallas will not fail twice and a cheap number. Dallas better than they showed last week, a double digit win here.

TOP PLAY Play 1.5 Units on Dallas