Washington -3 (good line drop for no reason) 

The Skins are 5-1 at home, and the Cowboys haven’t won a game without Romo all year and are in serious decline.  The Skins have been world beaters at home, obvious that QB Cousins is the best QB in the game, and Gruden the best coach in the game.  Cowboys 1-6 ATS without Romo, and Cousins at home 11 TD’s and only 2 picks.  Dallas just 2-8 ATS last 10 meetings with Washington.  Dallas throws it in early when getting beat – Skins never give up.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Chicago -7.5

Going to back the Bears here playing a better brand of football.  I put NOTHING into the Niners close one against AZ last week, the Cards had played Seattle and Cincy within 6 days of each other and never got off the bus and still won.  The Bears on a roll, Forte is back with Langford also stepping up and Culter with Gace at OC is playing lights out and showed up Rodgers on MNF.  Home field big here in cold weather the Da Bears under Fox on a spread run, the Niners 0-5 SU on the road and 1-4 ATS.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

Baltimore +3.5

Miami stinks.  Yep I am taking the better coach off back to back wins as ugly as they were, and the Dolphins flat out embarrassed last week and their offense a funk, the locker room a disaster and their QB is so overrated is unreal.  The Ravens in spite of their record have played everyone tough and have not lost by more than 8 all year.

Play 1 Unit on the Ravens

Atlanta +1.5

Atlanta +1.5

Matty Ice gets Freeman back and Tampa is not all that folks and horrible ATS at home.  Falcons avenging an OT loss, and I look for them to get back on track here somewhat.   Better weapons and with a running game they can be dangerous.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

2 UNIT TEASER- 2 Team 6 Points.  Tease Minnesota to +7 and tease Indy to +13 – 2 Units. 

Green Bay -3

Avenging a loss is key here.  Green Bay lost 3 in a row and one to the Lions as a double digit favorite.  Add in the fact this line was double digits 2 months ago on the futures and you have added value in this number.  While you may react to Sunday Night’s debacle for Green Bay do not.  Look at the box score in that game.  They out first downed the Bears, out rushed them, had less penalties, and frankly on paper out played them, but were 0-2 in the red zone and it killed them.  Detroit has been solid as of late however they have a lot of attention on their side because they whipped the Eagles last week, but folks the Eagles suck.  Green Bay rights the ship here by double digits.

Play 2 Units on Green Bay

Oakland -1
Cheap number for Oakland here against a team with 4 wins over their last 22 games and a banged up QB with no TD passes over the past 2 games and limited targets to throw to against a better than average secondary.  Jack Del Rio will have his team prepared here off back to back losses.
Play 1 Unit on Oakland 

San Diego +4.5 to 5
Yep - The Chargers are flat out ugly but Jax laying this number is scary.  I will grab this over the fall number of 3 anyday.  Chargers have stat edges in Points - Yards gained - turnovers - Time of possession - Kicking and penalties.  I know the Chargers OL is cheese cloth and they have injury issues but Rivers the best QB in this game and Chargers will pull out all the stops after KC whipped their ass last week.  This line an overreaction to what people saw last week, SD will play better and cover this number in a tight game.
Play 1 Unit on San Diego 
2 Team 6 Point Teaser - Tease Denver to +8.5 and tease Minnesota to +7 - Play 1 Unit. 

Lions –1.5

I cannot trust Philly on the road and I cannot trust Mark Sanchez but I can jump on the Lions bandwagon of back to back wins including Green Bay at Green Bay.  The Eagles offense in a total funk and the Lions while not a great team, are at home here and their defense in the last 2 games has been outstanding.  QB Sanchez is slated to start but rumors of Bradford playing are being floated, but a 100% Bradford is not all that good so playing banged up if he does is not a game changer here.  Tampa punked Philly badly on Sunday – Short Week – no confidence – travel on a holiday – Lions defense at home is fired up after 2 performances that were the best of the year.  Less than a field goal?  I will lay it.

Play 1 Unit on the Lions

2 Team 6 Point Teaser.  Tease Carolina to +7 and Tease Chicago to +15 for a half unit to 1 Unit Play

Bills +7

A rash of injuries for New England, and sooner or later it catches up, no matter how good of a coach NE has at adjusting, Edelman was a huge hit, and the Pats are on their 19th Offensive line arrangement this season.  Buffalo’s defense has vastly improved since the bye week and while both teams are good at stuffing the run, the Bills McCoy has been off the chart as of late as he is fully healthy and QB Taylor is not turning it over.  New England a better team but underdogs are hot at 19-6-1 ATS the last 2 weeks overall in the NFL and I like the Bills to make a stand here and they have had added time to prepare here off a Thursday Night game last week. . 

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo

Same Game 2 team 6 Point Teaser – Side and Total.  Tease the Total DOWN to 42 and take the OVER and tease the Bills UP  to +13 for a HALF UNIT. 

Minnesota PK

The biggest game for the Vikings in 10 years minimum.  They are a cover machine at 8-0 ATS and Green Bay in free fal and the GB defense as bad as the offense and BAD MATCHUP here for Green Bay.  The Packers are 27th in the NFL against the run and they play Adrian Petersen!  This is for the division championship in my opinion as Minny will be hard pressed to win at GB next month and I am taking the hotter team at home on a hell of a spread run as GB cannot run it and have limited success passing and Aaron Rodgers has not been his usual self, Minny sky high for this one and a well-coached team, and the best tackling team in the NFL.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

2 TEAM 6 POINT TEASER – 1 UNIT – Tease Cincy to +11 and Tease Indy to +12

Oakland +1

Detroit off a win against Green Bay and this low of a number against lowly Oakland?  The Raiders will get it going big time against this defense, oddsmakers know it and left a short number and I will expose it.  Better coach, better RB, better QB and Oakland fired up after getting waxed at home by the Vikes, and the Lions have not covered a spread at home this season!

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

Denver  PK to -1

Yep, taking the new QB, the better defense and a pissed off Bronco’s bunch over the John Fox led Bears off a surprising win against the Rams last week.  The Bronco defense will be at full strength and when was the last time QB Cutler put together 3 good games?  Also main weapon Jefferies is doubtful.

Play 1 Unit on Denver

Jax -2.5 to 3 MAX - Game out early at 2.5 guys!!!!!  

I had a free play on Jax who got the job done at Baltimore, albeit a crazy call by the refs that benefited them, but the resurgence of the offense behind QB Bortles has been good, Running game good, and WR Robinson one of the better fantasy WRs out there.,  Tennessee on a short week, travel and off a brutal beating against mighty Carolina, and the win over New Orleans in OT does little to impress me for the Titans as the hapless Redskins just waxed the daylights out of New Orleans Sunday.  Jax last 4 games while the defense has been inconsistent, the offense has averaged 27 ppg.  Better resume and better team and at home.  Jax 8-1 ATS the last 9 in this series.

Play 1 Unit on the Jags 

Arizona +3

Better team getting points.  Better QB getting points.  Just as good as defense if not better getting points.  Better coach getting points.  Better skill position players on offense in getting points.  Arizona off a bye week getting points.  Seattle has shut down 2 QB’s all year – Matt Cassel and Chicago’s backup Clausen.  Anyone good has beaten Seattle this season, and Zona will face a do or die effort on a tough home field and all the public will be pounding Seattle based on reputation and name only here, I will side with the Sharps.

Play 1 Unit on Arizona  

Dallas +1
Biggest square bet on the board but I am on the Cowboys.  TAMPA IS HORRIBLE AT HOME.  1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS their last 13 games at Raymond James Stadium and with the defense of Dallas, who can shut down boundary receivers like Mike Evans, and Dallas's run game to control the game and take the heat off their less than stellar QB Cassel, I think Dallas gets its done huge on Sunday to snap a streak of losses without Romo.  In Dallas's last 2 losses they could have won the game especially against Philly.
Play 1 Unit on Dallas

Miami +6
According to my sources in Vegas, and they are GOOD sources, the biggest sharp player bet this week is the Dolphins and I agree.  Philly is not all that guys and should have lost last week at Dallas, and Tannehill actually is better than Bradford at QB in my opinion and while Miami has looked less than stellar the past 2 weeks, I think their defense will step up and they have the skill players to expose a defense in the Eagles that is not that good folks.  Bad number to lay (fall number), I will take it.  Whole world on Philly here, I will play contrarian.
Play 1 Unit on Miami

Bills +2.5

I think he Bills win straight up so I will take the points.  Tyrod Taylor was 8 for 8 in hitting WR Watkins last week – they have McCoy and Williams at RB, a mobile QB hitting 71% of his throws YTD and they face a banged up Jets team with a limited QB who struggled to put Jax away last week.  Bills off a convincing win against Miami last week who was red hot rolling into Buffalo.  Jets meet their match here and if QB Fitzgerald goes down or not 100% Jets in big trouble with QB Smith coming in.  Rex Ryan knows this Jets team inside and out.

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo

BONUS PLAY – Virginia Tech +2.5 to win outright versus a bad GT team, and Bud Foster knows how to stop the triple option attack, and VT trying hard to get Beamer in his swan song year to a Bowl Game, a must win here for that.  

Chicago +4.5

Taking over the fall number of 3 here.  The Chargers have 6 starters out, 5 other starters listed as questionable and their best 2 offensive pass catchers are out.  Add in the fact their defense sucks and the Bolts cannot run it, QB Rivers has less weapons at his disposal and the fact that San Diego has found ways to lose all year, and I will take Cutler and the Bears who are playing better and the points.  Forte is out for the Bears, the backup is solid. 

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

2 Team 6 Point Teaser / Side and Total  - Tease Chicago to +10.5 and tease the Total UP to 55.5 and take the UNDER.  

NY Giants -2.5

The line here is an overreaction to Tampa’s win at Atlanta.  Did you see that game, Atlanta turned it over all over the place and Tampa still needed OT to beat them.  NY has a better QB and coach, bigger playmakers, and they can score against this defense,  Based on last week’s results, this line is ripe for the taking.

Play 2 Units on the NY Giants – TOP PLAY

Minny - 1.5 to 2

Value here under 3 with a team 6-0 ATS their last 6 and Rams have Gurley and that’s it, and trust me, head coach Zimmer will have his team ready to stop the run.  Minny is sneaky good and while they struggled last week to a win and cover at the Bears, Rams on the road cannot be trusted with 1 fluke win against the Cards early in the season.  This line lower than expected as an overreaction to Rams big win against lowly Niners last week.  AP – Bridgewater – Diggs and company and home field where the Vikes have been very tough at Gopher Stadium.

Play 1 Unit on the Vikings

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Oakland to +10 and tease Atlanta down to -1 – PLAY 1 Unit 

Two Plays here - No Writeups today guys - short on time but this game was well researched

Bad weather and rainy for the game.  

COLTS +6.5 to 7 - A 1 Unit Play - fading the public here. Colts cover late.

Same Game teaser 6 Points - HALF UNIT - Tease Colts to +12.5 to 13 and Tease the Total DOWN to 40 and Take the OVER.  

Atlanta -7

QB Ryan tore up Lovie Smiths defense big time with 2 double digits wins last year and the one in the Atlanta dome was ugly.  Atlanta won ugly last week and will want to atone for 2 bad performances and the Bucs blew a monster lead last week (24 points)  in a loss at Washington.  Atlanta better suited to stop RB Martin and the Atlanta defense rendered Tennessee useless last week and are vastly improved under their new head coach Quinn. 

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

Arizona -5.5

Guys Johnny Football is playing and the Zona defense licking their wounds as they roll into Cleveland against a bad football team after Joe Flacco and the Ravens did some damage to them on MNF and yet they get a win.  Johnny Football not ready for primetime, has limited targets and the Zona coaching staff on the defensive side of the ball will blitz him to death.  Arizona’s offense looked sluggish at times but they are healthy with a 1-2 punch at RB, had 3 WR’s that can go deep and QB Palmer is healthy and should have a big day here.  Cleveland is a bad team guys that allows 5 yards per carry and Johnson and Ellington will shred them.

Play 3 Units on Zona – TOP PLAY

Carolina -3

Like the Panthers here, still no respect and Philly in all honesty is not a good team they had more turnovers than NY did on MNF but the G Men so bad they made Philly look good.  When you get gifted a ton of turnovers and still struggle to score, what are you going to do against a Carolina defense that is a bad matchup, and even the average WR’s fro Carolina can find space against this P{Hilly defense.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

Oakland +4

Look the Chargers defense is horrific, the worst secondary the NFL, and the defense is so bad that Rivers threw for over 500 yards last week and lost!  Everyone keeps waiting for the Chargers to emerge, they are not going to.  Oakland plays these guys tough every year, and the underdog in this series is an amazing 11-1 ATS and most of those if not damn near all of them have been Oakland, and the Raiders are 5-1 ATS their last 6 in San Diego.  Raiders off a bye week, and the Chargers blew their wad against Green Bay last week.  Honestly Jack Del Rio the better coach here too.   

Play 1 unit on Oakland  

NY Jets +8 to 9

Jets have covered 5 out of the last 6 times these two have played with teams not as good as this one.  Jets can trade points here all day – RB Ivory should have a huge day and eat clock, Decker and Marshall can make plays and you are paying a high price for Brady and company here who needed the whole game to beat Indy last week who is not near the team the Jets are.  Too many points, public ;loves New England, Sharps love the Jets and so do I.

Play 1 Unit on the Jets

Giants +5

The Giants have the better offense and Manning coming off a 400+ yard game against the Niners here.  Philly beat up on New Orleans bad defense last week after struggling for over half the game again.  Tom Coughlin versus Chip Kelly here, there is a mis match as well.  The defenses are both suspect, but with the lack of secondary for Manning to throw against here the Giants can put points up on the scoreboard and that brings points into play with we are dealing with a number here over a fall number of 3.  The Giants rank 12th in rush defense and 10th in scoring allowed on defense folks.  The Giants have ripped off 3 straight wins and beaten some pretty good teams and they are 3 plays away basically from being 5-0 headed into tonight.  Not sold on Philly yet and the Giants playing with double revenge here as Philly swept them last year.

Play 1 Unit on the NY Giants

2 Team 6 Point Same Game Teaser.  Tease the NY Giants to +11 and tease the Total DOWN to 44 and take the Over. 

Carolina +7

Undefeated team catching points against a team with a losing record and they have an equal defense and better QB at throwing it,.  Battle of defenses here, Carolina at 100% health on defense and yes Seattle is a beast to play at home, but remember the Lions gave them a game in here and should have one.  Low scoring, points at a premium, I will gladly take them.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Full 1 Unit Play –  Tease San Fran to +8.5 and Tease Washington to +12 

Detroit -3

Like the Lions here at home, back against the wall, and while people think the Bears are all that with Cutler back – they beat KC who is horrific and they beat Oakland on a prayer and some lucky bounces, both teams have losing records.  Yes Zona blew out Detroit last week, but that was off a heartbreaker at Seattle on MNF and on a short week, they were doomed.  Lions own 5 straight home covers here and this line should be 6.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

Arizona -3.5

Pittsburgh is a massive paper Tiger and look at their schedule and see who they beat, not a single team with a winning record.  Vick is no match for Palmer in trading punches on the scoreboard and Pitt off short week and travel from west coast here as well.  Ellington is back at RB, Chris Johnson has been running like the old days and they have weapons everywhere.  Big Ben may return?  I doubt it, still the Cards are vastly better, Pitt gets exposed.

Play 1 Unit on Arizona

San Diego -3.5

Anytime I can Mike Vick, who has 5 covers when quarterbacking in his last 20 starts, I am fading him.  Pitts defense is not good, key players out obviously and I look for the Chargers with home field here to blowout the Steelers.  This line should be -5.5 or 6, I feel even though we are dealing with the hook on -3.5, it is worth the stretch.  Better QB in this game, and better defense as well.  You could but this down to -3 for -120 or 12/10 odds if you want.  Chargers third in total offense in the NFL – I do not think a Mike Vick offense can trade punches on the scoreboard all night despite some issues on the OL for the Chargers, I lean home team here.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego 

Arizona -2.5

The Cards will destroy the Lions.  Frankly a short week, travel, a brutal physical game against Seattle and a heart breaking loss where the refs made a bad call but the Lions played like dog crap folks.  Bottom line is AZ’s defense way too much for the predictable Detroit offense who cannot run because they have NO offense line, and little time for Stafford to pass it and stretch the field deep.  AZ off a loss to the hands of St Louis who had +3 in turnovers but are a better team than many think, and QB Palmer and his WR’s should havr a big day here and RB Johnson getting quality yards as well.  AZ defense too much here.  AZ vastly better coached!

Play 1 Unit on Arizona

Philly -4.5

Yes, going off Monday Night you would think we would be all over the Saints, but Dallas in bad shape, and the Saints are a bad team.  Saw something in Philly last week that has me thinking even though they lost, they found something in the passing department and who better to expose than a porous Saints defense.  Look for Philly to break this wide open.

Play 1 Unit on Philly.

Cincy -3

Seattle has no offensive line and without Russel Wilson they quite frankly would be a bad football team.  RM Lynch is very questionable with hammy and doubtful and not 100% if he did play, and even though the defense is solid for Seattle they have not played a team like Cincy other than Green Bay who has this type of offensive prowess, and Green Bay smacked them around.  Cincy has a great defense second only to St Louis that Seattle saw and they lost that game as well.  I believe this Cincy team is as talented as any in the AFC, not as well coached but talented. 

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

2 team 6 Point Teaser – 1 Unit Play - Tease New England down to -2.5 and Tease the NY Giants down to -1.  Both games through Key numbers.

Houston -4
We are getting near 3 points of home value here in my mind, this should be 7.  Colts OL is deplorable, 41 year old QB behind a line that cannot block and needed OT to beat Jax last week.  Houston at home off an embarrassing performance and prideful defense foaming at the mouth to atone for letting the Falcons rip them a new one, and they will tee off on Indy weak front line and make a showing here.  Oddsmakers making you lay a number over 3 with a team who got crushed last week against the Division Champs...there is a reason why.  Indy limping in here and this is last stand for Houston's season.  
Play 1 Unit on Houston 

St Louis +7 - 7.5

Yep, they damn near beat Pitt but played so bad it was unreal down the stretch.  Look for Gurley – Mason and Cunningham to grind it out on the ground and while Arizona has impressed, this is the best defense they have faced and a defense that shut down Pitt last week big time, even when Big Ben was in there.  How good is Arizona?  Well the combined record of the teams they have beaten up on is 0-9!  The Rams keep this close with defense and doubt you see a ton of scoring either.

Play 1 Unit on the Rams

2 Team 6- Point Teaser – 1 Unit Play -  Tease Denver down to -1 and Tease San Diego down to -1 to 1.5 (Lines as of Wednesday)  Both under the fall number of 3 in either case.  

Cincy -4

Look I am all in on the Bengals, and they have impressed.  What gets KC in trouble is having to trade points against good teams and KC’s defense was exposed big time against Green Bay Monday Night.  KC has no OL and all world Charles cannot get loose and Alex Smith has no time to throw.  Cincy’s defense no joke, Cincy’s offense is loaded, and Dalton is playing out of his mind.  KC on a short week with travel after an ass kicking and Cincy at home rolling.  Fading Kansas City here, poor play calling by Reid and a defense that was shredded by the same style offense that Cincy runs last week.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

NY Giants +5.5 – Top Play

Added time for the G Men to prepare for Buffalo who is off a road trip to Miami.  Before we all start bowing down to Rex Ryan, who has Buffalo played that is worth a shit?   Well New England and they blew them out in this stadium.  A struggling Indy team and a deplorable Miami team.  I would take Tom Coughlin over Rex Ryan any day of the week for a head coach and while NY has been anything but impressive, they gave 2 games away to 2 undefeated Atlanta and quite frankly Dallas would be undefeated if they had Romo, and they bounced back nicely last Thursday against the Skins.  NY is basically 3 plays away from being 3-0 and bear in mind for all the hype about Buffalo’s defense, the secondary is yielding almost 300 yards per game, and word is WR Cruz is suiting up his week.

Play 2 Units on the Giants

Kansas City +7
The combined record of the teams Green Bay has beat is 0-4, and this is a ton of points against a capable team here as Jamal Charles should have success against the Green Bay defense.  Both Seattle and Chicago moved the chains against Green Bay and KC has 10 days off to prepare after letting Denver score 14 points in 35 seconds in a tough loss last Thursday.  KC's offense can put points up and Rodgers will face a pass rush and good secondary here and with Lacey and Adamas out I like KC to keep this very close.
Play 1 Unit on Kansas City
6 Point teaser - tease KC to +13 ands tease the total down to 43 and take the OVER - Half Unit 

Oakland +3.5 to 4

Cleveland starting McCown over Johnny Football – BIG MISTAKE.  Oakland has momentum off an Epic win last week over the Ravens and despite Oakland playing little defense, I expect a shootout here (think about the Over here too) and Oakland has many more offensive weapons and Carr the Best QB in this game.  Benching Manziel is a stupid idea for the Browns. 

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

Houston -6.5

Tampa in trouble here.  Houston has underperformed all season but I expect their defense at home to rock Winston and company and the Bucs face a real defense, unlike the hapless and toothless Saints.  Expect Mallet and his WR’s (Hopkins now slated to play) to get some big plays and for Tampa to really struggle in this one big time in back to back roadies.  Look for JJ Watt to reak havoc on Sunday.  Coming out party for the Texans here. 

Play 1 Unit on Houston

Two Team 6 Point Teaser – Full 1 Unit Play - Tease Buffalo to +8.5 and tease Cincy to +8.5  Both teams through 3 key numbers – both could win outright.

Philly +2

Jets on a short week and travel off Monday Night football and flat out yes they have the better defense here but I think Philly is a team destined for better than 0-3 to start despite how bad they looked last week.  This line is an over reaction to what you saw on Monday Night which in all honesty was not an offensive showcase for NY, and also a reaction to the Eagles stinking it up against Dallas.  Fortunes turn different this week.  Jets beat a shitty Cleveland team and an Indy team who quite frankly were poorly coached and have been flat out beat by teams that were better than them at the moment. 

Play 1 Unit on Philly

Giants -3 to 3.5

Expect the NY Giants to pound the rock.  A must win for Coughlin and company here and he is flat out a better coach than Gruden all day long.  If games were 58 minutes long in the NFL the Giants would be 2-0.  Instead they GAVE AWAY 2 games and I expect them to get this done tonight against a team with a coach and QB that is not that of the Giants and the Skins face a tough running game with Jennings and Williams hitting them hard.  Cousins forced to throw will not turn out well, and Skins have no deep threat where NY is suspect.

Play 1 Unit on the NY Giants

Green Bay -3 to -3.5 (buy the hook down for -120 for insurance if u care to)

Triple revenge, NFC Championship debacle, Seattle defense gave up 31 points, that is right 31 points to ST LOUIS last week.  Green Bay has had this circled all off season, and Green Bay is the better team and while Lynch will have a big day running as GB surrendered  180 yard to Chicago on the ground, Green Bays Aaron Rodgers wants this as much as you want to win the lottery.  Shootout in Green Bay in a high scoring game, Green Bay by 10 gents.   Legion of Boom was shredded last week, Rodgers will shred them this week. 

Play 2 Units on Green Bay

Lions +3

Better team.  Minny looked lost on Monday and on a short week play a pissed off Detroit team that blew an 18 point lead at San Diego last week.  Detroit loaded on offense, Stafford a better QB by a longshot and the Lions have 3 options at RB and we all saw last week what Hyde from the 49ers did to them on the ground.  Norv Turner lost with this offense and AP got 10 touches last week, expect him to see more but Bridgewater way overrated.  Minny was hyped all year, they have issues everywhere, wow. 

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

Cincy -3

San Diego beat up in the secondary including their stud, and offensive lineman is out and Cincy flat out will expose a weak secondary with their weapons.  Yes Oakland is bad by Dalton and company put on a clinic and Cincy defense at full strength here.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

2 TEAM 6 POINT TEASER- 1 UNIT – Tease Baltimore down to -.5 and Tease Cleveland to +7  

Houston +3

All overt the Texans here, and an insider told me in Vegas that a prominent Las Vegas Bettor put a max bet on this as well.  Carolina without their stud WR, and possibly a stud LB.  Carolina did enough to beat Jax, but I like Mallett at QB for Houston and Houston’s defense will shut down 1 dimensional Carolina on offense.  I expect Houston to win outright in a low scoring one here.  TE Olsen caught 1 ball last week and Newton will be shadowed this whole game.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

Washington +4

This is an information Play gents.  Some of the biggest sharps in Vegas are on the skins, and the general public at 70% + is on the Dolphins here.  The line is still dropping and I know for a fact one of the biggest bettors in Vegas is all over the Skins.  While Miami is loaded and the defense is improved, Cousins not a bad option at QB and Home Dogs over a fall number like this one are always worth a very strong look.

Play 1 Unit on Washington in a shocker cover

2 Team 6 Point Teaser - Tease St Louis to +10 and Tease Kansas City to +7   

Colts -2.5

Might be the biggest square bet on the board but the team with the best QB wins the game in the NFL and none better than Andrew Luck.  Buffalo has a starting QB in Taylor who is in there because the other 2 guys just stunk it up less than he did, Fred Jackson gone, McCoy not 100% and Indy has too many options on offense including Frank Gore for a bull rush every play by a good Buffalo defense to keep Indy in check all day long on offense.  Road game outside of the dome in the Summer is not as big as deal as of this game was played in late November.

Play 1 Unit on Indy

New England (pick em) 

Yeah deflate gate in the news and many see it as a huge issue,  but I am on Bill Belichick and his team for this game under the number of 2 points.  Pats Vastly more impressive 2 weeks ago and while most people react to what they last saw, I honestly feel New England is the better team all around, and if Seattle cannot rush a one legged passer at home, I do not see them rushing Tom Brady with 4 down lineman and disrupting Brady’s flow.  Yes defense wins championships, and Seattle is trying to repeat last years shut down of another Hall of Famer as they crushed Peyton Manning and look to do the same against Brady. Trust me the Pats have seen that game film a hundred times the past week.  New England has sure handed receivers that run a ton of slants and seam routes and New England has 3 options at RB and Seattle will have to contend with sure handed WR’s and slot backs with Sherman and Thomas who both are not 100% to do the bulk of man coverage.  Seattle played 4 minutes of decent football against Green Bay, whose defense and secondary is not near the talent of England’s secondary, and won that game on basically 2 miracles and a total Green Bay meltdown.  Also do not discount RB Blount for New England, he can be very physical against this physical defense of Seattle, he will be a difference maker and keep that defense honest.

Bill Belichick is a master of game prep, and despite all distractions, he will use that as a rallying point for this game.  Tom Brady the best QB in this game, New England has numerous options on offense and can play physical as they did against the Ravens in the first round.  Not sold on Seattle’s offense other than Lynch which the Pats can stack up against and still play man coverage in the secondary with Revis and company.  Very tough to go back to back in the Super Bowl , and I think the Brady – Belichick legend grows after this game.  Going to be a nail biter, but I like the Pats, Seattle will give up points and Seattle cannot trade punches on the scoreboard no matter how they slow it down pounding the rock. Trick plays against the Pats rarely work, and Seattle lives on them for big plays to score and have all year.  Possible 3-6 point spread on finish

Play 1 Unit on New England

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 48 – Defense and running the ball will set the tone for this game with some big plays here and there determining the outcome.

Two Team Same Game teaser – Tease Seattle to +6 and Tease the Total to 55 and take the UNDER

5 Prop Bets – 1 Unit Each on the Moneyline

** New England OVER 85.5 yards – YES at -115

** Marshawn Lynch to score TD – YES at -130

** Tom Brady OVER 2 TD Passes – YES at +130

** Will Rob Gronkowski score a TD in the game – YES at -130

** Will the Patriots score a TD in the 3rd Quarter?  YES at -110 

Denver -7

Going with Manning here at home on a last ditch effort run to win a Super Bowl.  In my opinion Manning may hang it up at years end, he looked tired and old in his last 2 games, but with the needed rest and time off, and Denvers ability to run the ball, which the Colts do not have, I like Denver here at Mile High to roll with a motivated Peyton Manning and company.   The Colts who have been through a weak division and managed a ton of wins on the back of Andrew Luck and nothing else, because they have no running game.  Denvers pass rush, and pass defense should hold him at bay here and while he will have success he cannot do it alone, and the run game of Anderson and Denver will balance their attack and Manning will be a peak level here.  Think about it - Home field, rested team, better QB, experience factor, better defense and better running game ALL favor Denver.  That usually adds up to a big win in the post season.  Indy has covered 6 out of the last 7 dating back to 2006, and the Colts covered by 1 point back in September getting 8 on a last second fluke.  Not here, Manning will bring it today.

Play 2 Units on Denver.

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser.  Tease Denver down to -1 and Tease Dallas to +11.5  Play  1 Unit 

Dallas -6.5 to 7
This in my opinion is going to be a Dallas coming out party and a blowout in Jerry World.  Dallas avenging a bitter loss last year 31-30 in Detroit they have not forgot and the way Dallas plays offense and runs the ball with Murray and with Romo and Bryant and Whiten all 100%, I see no way Detroits inconsistent offense can keep up. Dallas has the  OL to counter the DL of the Lions, I like Dallas in a big way here.  They have a hot QB with Romo who pulled off one of the best Decembers in NFL history with a QB rating and a defense that is serviceable against a suspect Lions offense with no running game and one that is easy to stop. Dallas has been waiting for this moment for years and will show up big.
Play 3 Units on Dallas - TOP PLAY
2 Team 6 Point Teaser - tease Dallas down to -1 and Tease the Total Down in the Indy game to 43 and take the OVER.   1 Unit 

Indy -3
Cannot count on a beat up Bengals team here, Tight end and WR are both highly questionable to be at 100% and while the defense of Indy is nothing to brag about, they hammered the Bengals 27-0 earlier this year and the Bengals defense has no answer for Luck and company.  TY Hilton returns here and after watching the Bengals inability to get to the QB in pass rush recently and erspecially last week, QB should have a big day and quite frankly Cincy is 0-3 the last 3 years in the post season and I cannot trust Dalton or their coach in this spot on the road.  Bear in mind Wild card underdogs have went 1-7 ATS the last 2 years.
Play 1 Unit on Indy

Steelers -3
Of all the games from the outset I thought the Ravens might win this outright but upon further review, the Steelers even with RB Bells status known in full yet, the Steelers are 6-0 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs their last 6 times and the explosiveness on offense with Big Ben and his trio of WR's - TE is going to be hard to trade punches with.  The Ravens needed KC to beat the Chargers just to get here and they have not played well down the stretch, including a total meltdown debacle in Houston a few weeks ago where a scout team QB tore them up and Flacco looked like a pedestrian QB at best.  Cannot ignore the home field advantage here and the magic the Steelers pull off at home in the post season. They are playing the better brand of football right now. Bear in mind Wild card underdogs have went 1-7 ATS the last 2 years.
Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh
Two team 6 point Teaser - 1 Unit - Tease the Ravens to +9 and tease the Panthers down to -1.5 

Minnesota -6
Bears with Cutler again, enough said.  Vikes playing hard for new coach Zimmer, QB Bridgewater is performing very well and Vikes avenging a loss and Bears have simply thrown in the towel and Cutler is good for 2 turnovers here minimum.  Vikings are a team who wants to win, we have all seen the Bears just fall flat and quite frankly the Bears even at +6 are not attractive, there is allot wrong with this team and Cutler is just a bad option at QB.  Laying points in Week 17 is always tricky but Bears cannot be backed and Minny playing hard and vastly better coached. 
Play 1 Unit on Minny

2 Unit Play - 2 Team 6 point Teaser - Tease Carolina to +9.5 and Tease the Jets to +12.  

ALSO listed as FREE Play 1 Unit on this Totals Play - It was entered wrong n the system and no way to post it back...

UNDER 47 Packers - Lions
I do not expect a shootout despite all the offensive talent here.  19-7 first meeting in a Dome and now the frozen tundra and a total of 47?  Well, Detroit on a 14-3-1 Totals run on the UNDER their last 18.   They have the defense to contain Green Bay.  Hard fought division title type game.
Play 1 Unit on the Under

Colts -7
Look, Tennessee a bad team and vieing for the number 1 pick in the draft with a loss here.  Little QB play for the Titans all year and recently just deplorable - and yes the Colts may rest some starters but only after the starters get some work in and put some points on the board.  Titans 1-6 SU at home and lost the first meeting 41-17.  I doubt the Colts rack up 41 here but they put up a 2 TD win here.  Indy is 11-1-1 ATS after their last 13 losses the following week and no doubt the coaching staff wants to wash off the stink on the starters after last weeks horrific performance before sitting the stars. Titans 2-12 ATS their last 14 games.  Even though on the road, the Colts need to right the ship headed into next week.  Titans could not cover 4 points as a dog against lowly Jax last week! 
Play 1 Unit on the Colts

Arizona +8 (average consensus line – 9 in places 7.5 in others – line all over the place)

Yes a 3rd stringer at QB for Arizona is a concern but WOW, a huge dog because Stanton goes down, who was not all that good, the drop off is not that severe.  How in the world a 3 loss playoff bound team who is 7-0 SU at home is over a TD underdog in what should be a massive defensive battle between 2 hated division rivals is beyond me.  A Home Dog with 11 wins?  Come on now.  Arians will find a way to run his offense here and Seattle’s offense is no juggernaut either.  While I expect both teams to run it a ton here, and RB Williams for AZ has been a diamond in the rough since he started, I feel AZ has a chance here to make more than a game of this with downfield receivers who are vastly better than those of the Hawks.  Low scoring affair no doubt, points are valued when there is this many guys in that scenario, and we will take em.

Play 1 Unit on Arizona  

Minnesota +7

What the hell is Miami doing laying points to anyone.  Minnesota hangs around in games and despite their lack of talent in certain areas, they play hard for Head Coach Zimmer and rarely if at all get blown out.  That said Miami’s early season run and de-railed, they are allowing sacks like crazy, have not been doing anything on either side of the ball and quite frankly have been a trainwreck.  14 ppg their last 3 games, Tannehill 2 TD passes last 3 games and no running attack.  Minny a cover machine at 7-1 ATS their last 8 games and getting 7?  All over the dog here

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

Baltimore -5

Ravens playing well, and under the radar.  When you hold the Colts to 17 points and do not beat them like Houston did last week, that exposes your issues on offense and Houston has SERIOUS QB ISSUES as now Savage is iffy for Sunday!   Kubiak was fired by Houston, knows this team well because he drafted 80% of their roster or brought them in and he will have a few surprises and added motivation for his old team calling the plays for Flacco.  Rarely ion a day would I lay points with road favs, and there are 7 of them today, but this is the best one of them and I feel a great opportunity for the Ravens who are running passing and playing defense extremely well.  Better coach, better QB, not far off at running it and Baltimore does have a disruptive defense.

Play 2 Units on the Raven TOP PLAY

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – 2 UNIT TOP PLAY – Tease Indy to +9 and Tease New England down to -4.5.

Philly -7.5

Washington is bad football team with a bad QB situation and bad team chemistry against the wall here as Philly off a tough loss against hated rival Dallas playing for the their post season life here.  RG II against the Philly pass rush is going to be an issue, the Skins have allowed an UNREAL 36 sacks in 6 games and their offense is just deplorable.  If the Giants beat you by 11, and they have nowhere near the weapons on offense as Philly does, even with Sanchez as the triggerman, then how do you hang here against Philly who needs to get their offense on track here and are HIGHLY motivated?  BLOWOUT written all over this and the line is dropping?  One has to wonder about the mental state of mind for Washington if they get down big here early on. 

Play 1 Unit on Philly

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Philly down to -1.5 and Tease the Chargers up to 8.5 and play 1 Unit. 

Saints -3

Can you trust Cutler or Brees?  Can you trust either defense?  No and the total looks ripe for an Over but the Bears offense is woeful producing just 283 yards a game versus the New Orleans Saints offense averaging 412 yards a game, only 1 of 4 teams in the NFL to average over 400 ypg on offense.  Being there is a media circus in town over all the Bears woes, and WR Marshall is out, one of Cutlers biggest weapons, and the Saints are still playing for the division and a playoff spot, with a better running game with Ingram, I will side with the team who has more to play for with a better QB, which is usually a winning combination.  Beers a total mess, and while I like home dogs on MNF, the Bears are unbackable. 

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans – Play a half unit on the OVER 54

New England Pats  -7.5

Revenge with Brady and at home here and off a solid but not all that good win last week (they covered).  Miami just got hammered at home by Baltimore and I expect the coaching staff of New England to stress the run, as they are damn near 3 deep at RB and Miami cannot stop the run, just ask the Jets who throttled them with the run attack, difference QB Brady will now kill them thru the air with play action passing.  Pats outscored 23-0 after building a lead in game and Miami buried them, they have had this one circled.  Cold weather to boot for Florida team.

Play 1 Unit on the Pats

Oakland +10.5

Really?  KC reeling and sliding backwards.  This was a video free play from me this week, and as I looked closer it is worth a full 1 Unit Play.  This is a hated rivalry games, always close and the dog has covered 12 out of the last 15 and Oakland is 7-1 ATS last 8 in KC.  Oakland actually playing better ball than KC on defense and running it better (last 3 game stats all favor Oakland – I believe last 3 game stats more important than season long at this stage) .  Throw out the record books in this series, as always.  I will grab double digits in the NFL any day and RB Charles is banged up and not 100% and KC cannot throw it past 15 yards.  No WR has caught a TD pass all season.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

Indy -6.5

Houston in trouble here and they have not faced a QB like Andrew Luck in 6 weeks, and while QB Fitzpatrick has made a return due to injury and looked decent against Tennessee and Jax I am not buying in.  These two teams outside of JJ Watt are vastly different, one very good, the other team not so much, and the Colts while having the division locked up with a win here will be motivated and Luck threw for 365 against them int he first game they played.  MORE OF THE SAME. Colts highly motivated especially off a bad performance last week.  Indy 5-1 ATS their last 6 at home and they won on the road by 5 in the first game, I see them doubling that number + this week at home. 

Play 3 Units - TOP PLAY

2 Team 6 Points Teasers – 1 Unit Each – Tease Cincy to +6 and Tease Seattle to -4 -   TOTALS TEASER - and Tease Seattle San / Fran up to 44 and take the UNDER – Tease the total down to 48.5 in the Pitt / Atlanta Game and take the Over.  

Arizona +4.5

While the Rams are playing great ball and some really good defense, bear in mind they played Oakland and Washington in their last 2 games, and Arizona is a huge step up.  Although the Zona offense is not the same without Palmer pulling the trigger no doubt, the emergence of a run game last week with a rookie RB had 100 yards against a decent KC defense, and we saw Stanton making some big plays down field is encouraging as the Cards are playing for the Division title here (keeping the number 1 spot anyway), and while the Rams would love to play spoiler, they come down to earth here against a very good football team that beat a good KC team last week and rendered Jamal Charles useless for most the game.  Good line on this game which will be tight as we are getting over the fall number of 3 and 4.  Last game was 31-14, and while the Rams have people jumping on the bandwagon and this line is climbing because the Rams are a sexy pick, and they have beaten some good teams in here, namely Denver, I am going to buck the public.  This line may climb to 5 by kickoff so hold out a little if you dare but 4.5 is a good number.  Low scoring game, points are always welcome over 3 on a dog.

Play 1 Unit on Arizona

Patriots -3.5

TOTAL MIS-MATCH.  Brady and Bilicheck off a loss?  Look at the stats!  Off a loss on the road laying less than 6 points the Pats under the current regime are 31-10 ATS, 36-5 SU, and Pats are 10-1 ATS on the road off a loss laying less than 6 points.   Chargers schedule is soft, Pats are battle tested. The Bolts have played Oakland twice, Jets, Jags, Bills, got beat 37-0 by Miami off a bye week. Last week they beat the Ravens basically on a bad call fro the ref in the end zone in the final minute. Brady owns the Chargers, 5-0 SU lifetime.  Always take a good coach and good team off a loss if the number is right, and lest we not forget the New England Patriots are the best teams in the AFC and the Chargers are a middle the pack team at best who have struggled against anyone good.  Home or not, I look for Brady and company to bounce back.  Pats have stayed out west all week for this one and will be focused.

Play 3 Units on New England 

Ravens +3

Square bet yes, but Miami looked ugly Monday and the ATS trends are against them on a short week here, and if you could not stop the Jets running game, as the Fish looked lost, how do you handle Forsett at RB and the 5th ranked running game in the NFL, and unlike the Jets who had QB Smith, Joe Flacco is no joke and has weapons all over the place.  Catching a good team, with a good coach off a loss, is always a take proposition when catching points.  The Ravens in a dog fight for their division, and Cleveland having a tough game at Indy and a potential loss and Pitt and Cincy playing so one of them are going to lose, with a win the Ravens could really secure a great spot in their division.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore

NY Giants -1

NY blew a 21-0 lead last week against lowly Jax.  Jake Locker returns for Tennessee, human turnover machine.  That is a go against, and Tennessee is 1-9-1 ATS their last 11 at home.  NY has Beckham and Jennings, the the best QB in this game. They have all the playmakers here and no doubt Coughlin has been in their ass all week.  I expect the Giants to salvage some pride against another NFC South team.   NY had 2 fumbles returned for TD’s last week, I do not see them having that bad of luck this Sunday.  I hate betting a losing team on the road laying even a single point like this one, but every single stat edge goes to NY, every one of them!

Play 1 Unit on the Giants

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Pittsburgh up to +9 and Tease Denver down to -4 – Play 1 Unit

Dolphins  -6.5 to 7
LIne down to 6.5 at Mirage in Vegas Sunday so hold out a little to see if you can get this under 7.  Highly confident of one thing, QB Geno Smith is going to be our savior tonight backing the fish, he is a human turnover machine and this Dolphin defense is no joke and ranked 4th against the pass in the NFL and are very opportunistic.  This is a MUST WIN for Miami at 6-5 for playoff consideration and although they are off a tough loss at Denver where they outplayed them I still like them hetre despite a big number to blow out NY.  In the NFL you need a solid defense,good coaching, and the better QB to win games, and that favors Miami here all the way. The Jets are a bad team and Geno Smith cannot lead this team and is quite frankly a very poor NFL QB and against an aggressive defense is a go against guy.
Play 2 Units on Miami
SAME GAME TEASER / 6 Point Tease - tease the Dolphins down to -1 and tease the Total up to 48 and take the UNDER - 1 Unit

Arizona -2
Many say the collapse of Arizona is underway although I do not think the Falcons defense is anywhere near the test as that of Seattle on  the road and we all saw what Seattle did to San Fran this Thursday, they are stepping it up.  Arizona off a loss is a take here and they are vastly better than Atlanta. The Falcons ONLY 2 wins since September have been against Carolina dsn Tampa Bay!  Enough Said.  Some say a sqaure bet, I say a weak oline.
Play 2 Units on Arizona - TOP PLAY

2 Team 6 Points Teaser.  Tease Cleveland to +9 and tease the Total in the KC / Dever Game UP to 58 and take the UNDER.   

Chargers +6.5
Looks too easy to take Baltimore here and if you look closely at the stats, especially the last 3 games it is the Chargers who are playing better defense.  I like to fade teams laying a big number off a short week off MNF, and the Chargers wile winning ugly have won their last 2 and RB Matthews being back adds a new demison for SD and opens up the passing game, and he had over 100 yards last week against a tough Rams defense.  
Play 1 Unit

NY Giants -3
Indy - Dallas - San Fran and Seattle.  A Murderer's row of good team the last games for the Giants.  They have come close in many oi them but all losses bit that makes this line manageable and the Giants are the better team here, even on the road. Jax is gaining 297 total on offense and allowing 406 yards their last 3.  That math doe snot work, Giants battle tested and I expect Coughlin to coach his team up for a win.
Play 1 Unit on the Giants

Dallas -3

Off a bye week and rested and with a healthy Romo.  The Giants just cannot get out of their own way, and while I hate to lay the hook on a road game at 3.5, the Dallas running game and balance on offense should give the Giants fits, who by the way are off a brutal game, brutal loss, and quite frankly the 3 TD and 0 picks Manning had in game 1 of this series will not repeat itself.  Dallas the better team, must win in the division for placement and I like a rested Dallas team against a banged up G Men team who have dumped 5 straight and ATS.  Manning 5 picks last week pressing it, likely to have a few here.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas

St. Louis +5

Teams in 2 different directions and the Chargers had major issues beating the winless Raiders last week, still banged up at RB and the defense of the Rams is no joke.  Last time the Chargers played a defense this good, they got blanked 37-0 at Miami and this defense made Peyton Manning look confused last week.  Look for rookie RB Mason for the Rams to do well, and QB Hill was 20-29 last week against a good Bronco defense. I will gladly take the points.  Jeff Fisher a good coach and he has the Rams playing well.

Play 1 Unit on the Rams

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – 1 Unit Play.  Tease New England down to -1 and tease San Fran to -3. 

Patriots  +3

You gonna give me 3 points with Bellichick and Tom Brady?  Really?  The Colts Andrew Luck in 2 games in his career against the Pats has 7 picks, and 2 defeats by wide margins including 59-24 and 43-22.  What is different in all actuality?  Brady is on fire, Luck likes to chuck it all over the place and not establish a run game, and the Colts defense is suspect here.  The Pats offense is getting a whopping 6.2 yards per play, and the Colts are suspect here big time, at home or not, New England is flat out better.  Pats defense is better, coaching is better, QB is better, and they have Lucks number.  Interesting when Tom Brady has been a QB for the Pats as a 1- 3 point dog, he is 28-8 ATS as starter.  Patriots offense averaging 40 ppg the last 5 weeks, all over them here.

Play 2 Units on New England

Cleveland -3

QB Ryan Mallet makes his NFL debut against a rock solid Cleveland defense and a red hot Cleveland team at home, in cold, as they play a southern team used to a dome stadium, and RB Foster for Houston has not practiced all week, their best weapon is banged up.  The Browns also have had extra time to prepare off a blowout win on the road against the Bengals last Thursday.  The Browns are 4-1 ATS on this field the last 5 games against teams a lot tougher than Houston, and with a game virgin at the helm for Houston, expect the Browns defensive staff to show him multiple blitz packages and create some havoc.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland

San Fran -4

The Giants stink.  Lets be honest, their offense is in a funk and San Fran off a huge MUST WIN at New Orleans, the toughest place to play in the NFL.  While many worry about the trip east, San Fran going West to East the past 6 times, they are 6-0 SU and ATS!  The Giants will be hard pressed to stop Frank Gore and Rookie Hyde at the running game this week and San Fran simply has more weapons and a vastly better defense than NY, as well as getting DE Smith this week.  NY could not stop RB Lynch last week and QB Wilson ran wild as well.  NY is 3-10 ATS their last 13 games against teams with a winning record and a paltry 4-10 ATS their last 14 games.  San Fran trying to keep pace with AZ in their division, they will not fall flat against a bad football team. 

Play 1 Unit on San Fran

Bills +4.5

Line dropping and it pisses me off I was not on this sooner, but the mis-match is Buffalo's front on defense, which should dominate the Miami OL, and with Brandon Albert going down on the O line for the Fish is a HUGE hit, that was their #1 free agent pick up, and look for Tannehill to get sacked a ton here.  RB Jackson back for Buffalo is huge, WR Watkins will be at game speed, and bear in mind Buffalo did everything but beat a red hot KC team last week on the scoreboard, and shut down a very potent KC offensive attack, turnovers did them in.  Buffalo dominated Miami in the first game and won by 19 points and now catching over the fall number of 3 with a good defense and healthier team?  Low scoring affair here, I will take the points, in what should be a classic 3 point down tot he wire game 1 way or the other. Buffalo has won and covered last 3 in this series.  I know home teams have dominated this year on Thursday - but this should be a good game for once. 

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo 

Green Bay -7

The Packers OWN Cutler, who sucks by the way.  Chicago is a bad football team, and in a tough spot catching the Pack off a bye week where they are 7-1 ATS off a bye week.  Aaron Rodgers and company will dismantle the Bears defense, like everyone else has and Chicago has no chemistry on offense and do not utilize the run game enough to balance their attack and keep Rodgers and company off the field.  Da Bears are their own worst enemy, off 2 double digit losses where they allowed 78 points.   Green Bay chomping at the bit here after having 2 weeks to think about the woodshed beating they took at New Orleans, I like them here by 10+ points against a beat up and injury riddled Bears defense.  Big number, willing to swallow it here. 

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Arizona DOWN to -0.5 and Tease Baltimore to -4 for a 1 Unit Play.  

Kansas City -1

Big on KC and the run they are on in this pivotal game for both teams.  KC is #1 in the NFL on pass defense and third in sacks.  Last I checked Kyle Orton is not mobile and not good under duress.  Also KC has X Factor Jamal Charles and KC is 3 deep at RB, and QB Smith the best QB in this game.  Andy Reid is 12-1 ATS on the road as a head coach for KC, KC is the hotter team, and have the better players, and with Spiller and Jackson out at RB for Buffalo, they lack offensive weapons to trade punches here.  It should be noted KC beat every team in this division this season.

Play 1 Unit on KC

Indy -3

Hate to fade a Home Dog on MNF, but the Giants weapons are limited and Indy a vastly better team and they rank #1 in the NFL on defense at allowing 3rd down conversions, to go along with their high powered offense.  After seeing what the Steelers did Sunday Night that loss seems not quite so bad, and Indy has the better QB, Better WR’s and NY is without some key players and their main playmaker WR Cruz is done.  That’s a big hit, and NY cannot seem to balance their attack and they are lacking on defense badly.  No Jennings at RB, best WR out…even off a bye week, the Giants are not a good football team , their 3 wins were against Atlanta, Houston at home and Washington. 

Play 1 Unit on Indy

½ Unit 2 Team 6 Point Same Game Teaser – Tease Indy to +3 and tease the Total down to 44 and take the OVER.  

Denver -3

Better team, best defense in the NFL, better running game, hotter QB, #1 in stopping the run and New England will want to run it to keep a hot Manning off the field, and Denver will shut them down.  Pats on a roll after getting waxed by on MNF against the Chiefs, BUT look at their schedule.  Minny, Bears, Jets, shitty Buffalo team, Oakland..barely beat Miami, while Denver crushed Cards and Niners and Chargers and KC.  Battle tested, better team.  Denver will run it big time here and balance attack.  Weather possible issue, cold and windy, like Denver's ability to balance attack better and their defense.

Play 1 Unit on Denver

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Kansas City to -3.5 and Tease Pittsburgh to +7.5 for a 1 Unit Play

Chargers +2.5

Better QB, better coach, the Bolts get RB Brown back which is huge, added time to prepare, and if you watched the Miami game last week, Jax threw 2 pick six’s in that game.  Not sold on the Fish, and SD 0-7 in Miami dating back to 1981, I expect them to snap that streak here, Chargers top 6 in NFL Power rating poll, and I do not see them losing 3 straight.  Road dog wins outright.  Rivers not near the turnover machine as in years past, McCoy a cagey coach.

Play 1 Unit on Chargers.

Arizona +3 to +4

Kidding me?  The better team here, better defense and better QB because if Romo plays, he is not near 100% and AZ rushed the passer and have shut down corners.  Cards decent at stopping the run as well.  WR rookie Brown a stud, Fitzgerald still has the magic, Arians a better coach and we are over the fall number of 3 here as I release this play.  Carson Palmer playing the best ball of his life right now, Cards already are 3-0 against NFC East.

Play 1 Unit on Arizona

Colts -3

Not sold on Pitt in any way shape or form.  Colts a complete team with a deceptive defense that has played well, and the Steelers cannot trade points with the Colts.  Colts off a big win, Pitt on a short week off a MNF win, but Indy is consistent and Pitt is not.  Beating up the Texans with Fitzpatrick at QB does nothing to impress me.  Todd Haley the worst OC in the NFL and the Steeler defense aging and Luck will pick them apart.  I like Indy here by a TD+ and bear in mind the Steelers defense gives up big plays.    

Play 1 Unit on Indy

2 Team 6 Point Teaser.  Tease Philly to +8.5 and Tease KC down to -1 for a 1 Unit Play

Jets -3

Buffalo is in trouble here folks.  Losing RB Spiller a big hit, and while the Jets have lost 2 in a row, they played very good football against Denver and New England and had a shot to win both games. Bills are limping in here folks, the perfect storm for the Jets to take out a lot of frustration.  Enter Percy Harvin as a threat, RB Ivory establishing a running game, and that takes heat off Geno Smith who is iffy at best I understand.  Buffalo has RB issues and Orton cannot stretch the field here vertically much, and NY’s defense will hold Buffalo down, who has scored 20 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games.  Do or die for Rex Ryan right now, the Jets ROLL the Bills.

Play 2 Units on the Jets – TOP PLAY

Chargers +7.5

 Posted on Monday for line value..love the hook on this...

Coaching.  I love McCoy coaching in this spot and Denver off a great showing on Sunday Night has the public All Denver.  That’s the square play, I like the dog here.  Last year the Bolts slowed Denver down and beat them once in division play.  For one reason or the other they have Denver’s number and this is never an easy game.  Also catching SD off a loss to a good KC team but their focus should be there as they will not take kindly to losing 2 divisional games in a row.  Rivers no Peyton Manning but SD can shut down the run pressure the QB which is key to beating a team like Denver. 

Play 1 Unit on San Diego

Arizona -3.5

Can the Raiders who almost upended the Chargers last week handle the upstart and slightly over rated Cards?  Well the Cards defense is going to shut down the Raiders.  Carr is playing better than most think, but Cards secondary a total mis match and Raiders cannot run it against Arizona.  Zona a hell of a cover team under Arians, 10-3-1 ATS last 14 games.  Cards find ways to win and Raiders find ways to lose.  Doubt seriously even in the wacky world of the NFL that a 1 loss team loses to the Raiders.  Trust me Carson Palmer was dealt outta here and wants to show well.

Play 1 Unit on Arizona

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Cleveland down to a (PK) and Tease Buffalo down to a (PK) for a 1 Unit Play

NOTE:  YES ALL FAVS THIS WEEK – High percentage of the time you pick the SU Winner and the spread is covered.  Mid season point is the fact better teams start winning and every dog on this card is playing like shit.  Just an FYI. 

Colts -3

I am done with Cincy.  It is apparent they miss DC Zimmer who bolted for the Minny job.  They could not stop a Carolina team with no RB and 1 good WR.  Andrew Luck and company are lighting up the scoreboard and Cincy’s defense is a funnel right now, and on offense they simply are  inconsistent and missing their best WR to injury.  Remember this preseason Cincy pounded Indy by 28 points, I bet the players remember.  Payback at cheap number here for the better team.

Play 1 Unit on Indy

Ravens –7

Look Atlanta is a bad team.  Not afraid to lay it here.  First up physical teams give Atlanta fits, always have.  The Dirty Birds cannot run, and have no chemistry on offense. QB Ryan over rated and Flacco is on fire, and the Ravens are a damn good football team and at home here I love them.  They are running the ball, WR Smith making huge plays downfield, and Atlanta on the road is a bust, 0-3 ATS this year and they simply just cannot find ways to win. 

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore

New England –9.5 to 10 (released early for line value)

Do you want any part of Rex Ryan and the Jets.  Geno Smith is a poor excuse for an NFL QB, his backup Vick is a shell of himself and Tom Brady and company have completely turned it around.  Losing Mayo at LB hurts but this no name crew of WR’s and Gronk have it going and the Pats have figured out their OL issues and they are 83% SU at home since 2011, home field here worth 4.  The short week affects NY worse having to travel and if you look at Thursday Night nights results this season, pretty much take the better team who wins SU and they cover! Bills defense better than the Jets and Brady got 4 TDs against them last Sunday on the road!  Enough said, Jets liable to get a very ugly loss here.  Jets have not covered their last 6 regular season games!

Play 1 Unit on New England

San Fran -3

Look, the Niners are good team.  Sundays results were alittle confusing on many games, but San Fran a clear cut above St Louis this season.  Better defense, bigger playmakers, better RB, vastly better QB.  Jeff Fisher has a way of playing good teams close, but San Fran has it going on, and with a Seattle loss, they take the division here and set themselves up.  San Fran Defense allowing  282 yards per game, and St Louis on 3rd string QB here who has played well, however he has not faced a defense like this.  San Fran covered both series games last year with blowout wins, St Louis may be better on defense this season but not good enough to close the gap, and the Dome in St Louis is not intimidating as most away venues the Niners play in.  St Louis has had 1 cover all season, I do not see them scaring the Niners tonight with RB Gore and mobile Kapernick. The Niners are a MNF beast, 8-1 ATS their last 9 MNF Games.

Play 1 Unit on San Fran

Giants +3

NY is the hotter team, has the better coach, QB and defense.  Philly is a wreck with injuries, their LB unit decimated, and QB Foles who everyone thinks is all world, has 20 passes of 25 yards or more with 6 completions and 4 picks. Eagles miss DeSaun Jackson big time.  WOW. They did establish a running game last week finally, but people have figured out this offense and they will not win with smoke and mirrors against the NY Giants, Tom Coughlin again has brought his team out of obscurity and making them relevant.  The Eagles gave a 3rd string QB in St Louis 375 yards through the air, and now that Manning has the controls of the West Coast offense down, he will have a big night against a deplorable defense.  G Men 15-9 ATS as a dog last 24, and if Jennings is out at RB, fully confident in Williams running with power!

Play 2 Units on the NY Giants 

Cincinnati -6 to 6.5

Off a bad loss, Carolina gets exposed here.  The Panthers were out yarded and beat last week but Chicago and Cutler gave them the game.  There is a reason why the Bengals are favored by this much, total mismatch.  Panthers cannot throw it, cannot run it and the Bengal offense minus AJ Green is still potent and they have won and covered 11 straight at Home! The best home field second only to Seattle.  Big turn of event playing the Bears defense versus a pissed off Bengals defense who were embarrassed on Sunday Night against the Pats. There is a reason they are -280 on the moneyline guys! 

Play 1 Unit on Cincy here in a blowout.

Pittsburgh +1.5

Not fooled here, Cleveland’s defense sucks.   Big Ben will expose it.  With Bell running the ball (2nd in the NFL in rushing) and Blount backing him up, plus Big Ben picking apart a secondary playing zone to stop the run, expect Pitt who struggled last week at Jax to come out here in this divisional game and get it done.  Biog Ben 19-2 SU in his 21 starts against the Browns, the streak extends.  Pitt scored 30 in the first meeting, and Browns 30th in yards allowed and 29th against the rush, and Pitt ranked 4th in total offensive yards and 8th best in the NFL at running it.  Game Over right there.

Play 1 Unit on the Steelers

Indy -2.5

Colts are for real.  In a game of this type, where the line is below 3 and the game on paper looks pretty even, you HAVE to look at the QB comparison and CLEARLY Andrew Luck is vastly superior to Fitzpatrick.  Houston did cover by 1 point over Dallas, but I also like fading a team off an OT road loss, especially on a short week.  Indy’s defense dominated the Ravens and their power running game and contained a very good QB in the process all the while having 4 turnovers and still winning.  Fitzpatrick has had 2 TD passes in his last 3 games versus 6 picks and Indy will load up and try to stop resurgent RB Foster, and dare them throw it.  Houston’s 3 wins against weak teams, not sold on them here as a home doggie.  Colts love Thursday, 9-1-1 ATS their last 11, and they have covered 4 out of the last 5 in this series. 

Play 1 Unit on the Colts

Seattle -7
Last time I saw the over valued QB Cousins in total disarray.  Seattle with a week off here should be ready to play and while Washington's defensive rush on the QB is a storyline here, they have yet to play a mobile QB, or face a RB like Lynch.  Pete Carroll loves the spotlight and Seattle the vastly better team.  The special teams of Seattle is also a huge factor and as well as the fact the Seahawks take care of the ball and Washington does not.  Hate to fade a home dog on MNF but this is a mis match.
Play 1 Unit on Seattle
Two team 6 Point Teaser- Tease Seattle down to -1 and the the Total down to 39.5 and take the Over - half to 1 1 unit.   

Kansas City +6

KC has more dynamics to throw at San Fran that Philly on offense.  YES I said irt.  KC can run the ball, and the common deal is to go against someone who looked good on Monday and travel the next game, but this is a ton of point as KC is hitting on all cylinders on offense and San Fran is still struggling on offense and face a much stiffer test as KC’s defense is light years ahead of Philly’s who had a chance to tie it up with less than a minute left last week.  KC’s pass rush is solid, the DL is rock solid as well and Berry is back at DB this week.  Andy Reid the better coach here

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City

Chicago +2.5 to 3

Bears better on the road than at home.  The Bears face a wounded team, no RB, no running game, a beat up QB and a toothless offensive attack and a defense yielding over 6 yards per carry in the rush game.  Chicago’s defense in a bad mood off the Green Bay debacle, and while they are not good a good defense, I cannot see Carolina trading punches on the scoreboard with Cutler and company all day and the wrong team is favored. 

Play 2 Units on the Bears – TOP PLAY

Atlanta -3

Might be a square bet but so what!  Rookie QB and missing RB Petersen, plus 2 offensive line guys.  Minny has managed 16 points in 2 Weeks!  Against Atlanta's defense they may fare better but no way a rookie QB with limited weapons at best can trade punches with QB Ryan and the Dirty Birds on the scoreboard.  Did you see what a below average Pats offense did to them in here?  Lit them up for 30 points in a blowout. 

Play 2 Units on Atlanta - TOP PLAY