BYU +7 to 7.5

I watched Boise St almost get beat by an average Colorado State last week.  Cannot ignore the brutal schedule of BYU this season, battle tested against the likes of Utah, West Virginia, Michigan St and a bevy of others and QB Hill still a huge threat anytime he has the ball.  Boise State's claim to fame is a tight win over Washington State and nothing else.  This won't come easy folks and should be a rare very good game on a Weekday in CFB.  Gladly grab the points - BYU had an extra day to prepare as well and Boise 0-6 ATS last 6 at home.  Blue carpet not the same since Petersen left for Washington.

Play 1 Unit on BYU

Chicago +7.5

Off a rough weekend for the Packers, they have serious issues on defense, especially in the secondary with 3 starters out, all CB's which is troublesome as QB Hoyer has been lighting it up with 300+ yard passing days in each of the past 3 weeks.  Green Bay looks lethargic on offense and Dallas whipped them badly 4 days ago.  Hoyer playing better than Rodgers right now which is shocking, GB lacks chemistry on offense and Rodgers accuracy has been horrible lately.   My Vegas oddsmaker contact told me this morning that all sharpo action has been on the Bears from his bigger players in Las vegas, and the line has dropped a half point because it was at 8, buit still over the key number of 7 tonight.  Not sold pon Packers defense, not sold on a banged up running game with serious injuries (Lacy and Starks out) there as well as they picked up RB Davis from KC, who was a 4th stringer for the Chiefs.   Chicago keeps it closer than the spread, although I expect a Packer win but this won;t come easy.  

Play 1 Unit on Chicago.

NY Jets +7.5 to 8.5

So without Palmer this line would have 4 to 4.5 (according to my oddsmaker source in Vegas at CG Technology)  and with Palmer is is anywhere from -7.5 to -8.5. Not sure the way Palmer has played he warrants that type of line move in all honesty.  Jets are in a slide and look to be an easy fade here, 3 losses, all 3 by double digits, but the good news QB Fitzpatrick did not have an interception last week after having 9 of them the two weeks previous.  Yeah playing Seattle and Pittsburgh is tough duty back to back for the Jets.  Not sure that a win over San Fran and putting up 33 is all that impressive as the Cards have underperformed all year, and quite frankly Carson Palmer has looked like dog doo doo all season including the preseason.  With Stanton at QB it forced the Cards to feature the run more which was a good deal against a banged up Niners defense, however the Jets defense, given some rest with some offensive production, can and will slow down RB Johnson and put plenty of heat on Palmer as well.  Arizona has Seattle and Carolina on deck, and even though rested we are betting into this number more than anything and taking the big points with the Jets who have failed to put it all together, but at days end a 2-3 team laying these points with wins over Tampa at home and San Fran to their credit is not warranted in my book.  Remember Todd Bowles was Arians defensive coordinator before taking teh Jets job and knows the cards system well. 

Play 1 Unit on the Jets 

#276 - Houston -3   *8:30 EST (seeing 2.5 at some shops) Public will love Indy....

I cannot make a case for Indy here who was outgained by hapless Chicago last week 522-396 and still won.  After a trip to London, then Da Bears and now travel, an exhausting 3 weeks for the Colts who play absolutely NO defense and folks that is a problem on the road in the NFL, bad defenses get beat.  Houston a cover machine at home, and their defense should have a big day against a weak offensive line who has allowed 21 sacks to date and a pissed off defense who got waxed last week at Houston will be dialed in to attack QB Luck.  Practice has been no fun under O'Brien this week after last weeks total meltdown in Minny, Houston more than capable at home here, especially on defense,  and I think they hold the Colts down on offense in this one and win by a TD or more at home.  This is a sharp move in Vegas this week. 

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#269 - Kansas City -1

This is sharp money move in Vegas.  My source in Vegas tells me the sharps hit this early all week long, a wise guy side.  Oakland is rolling but we given their last few games late in the game as they continue to win with no defense.  With San Diego winning Thursday and Oakland at the top of the standings in the AFC West, this is a HUGE game for KC who is off a bye week and they will have a healthy Jamal Charles, and he and Travis Kelce at TE should have a huge day against this defense of Oakland.  The line stinks as Oddsmakers begging you to take Oakland who is trolling, why do you think that is?  KC 10-3 ATS last 13 in Oakland, always a bitter rivalry type game, KC rested and prepared gets it done.

Play 1 Unit on KC

#257 - Pittsburgh -7

I simply cannot back Miami, who maybe one of the worst teams in the NFL against one of the best teams.  Big Ben and company should shred this defense, and if you have been living under a rock, Miami has NO protection for their QB, their offensive line is Swiss cheese, and Miami is the worst home cover team in the NFL over the last 3 years.  Pitt clearly a TD better and then some.  Square side yes, but also the right side.  If you have the Steelers left in your survivor pool, this is the week to use them.  I have been burnt on public sides this year twice, but this is a total mis-match.

Play 1 Unit on Pitt

2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added) - Tease Tennessee Titans to -1 and the Baltimore Ravens +9.   

#251 - Cincy +8.5 to 9

Well a team who looked horrific last week at Dallas against 2 rookies, versus a team who looked awesome, the over reaction by the public as Oddsmakers make you pay for Tom Brady at home after waxing the hapless Browns.  New England is a huge public team along with Pittsburgh and Dallas every week, this number is too high as I expect the Bengals to bounce back a and make a good showing.  The Pats real strength is not heir offense, but their #3 ranked defense, however I expect QB Dalton and company to move the chains ands make this interesting. 

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

# Wisconsin +11  *8 EST

Look the Badgers played Michigan to a 14-7 game, and that was at Ann Arbor. They have had 2 weeks to prepare for OSU off a bye week here at home.  HUGE GAME.   Ohio State has played no one all year and Oklahoma is not an argument, they are 2 loss team and should have lost to Texas last week.  Ohio State beat a bad Notre Dame in a bowl game and basically has played no one since and returned only 6 starters although Barrett at QB is a returner and good, but anyone looks good throwing it all over the place against Rutgers.  Wisconsin is battle tested with a win over LSU on a nuetral site and Michigan State (not so impressive now) but none the less Camp Randall at night worth 3-4 points for home field, and Wiskey will give them all they want.  Too many points here.  If OSU makes a bunch of mistakes here they can lose.  The Badgers are no joke folks, especially at home.  Wisconsin's defense makes Indiana look like a JUCO team and Indiana held Barrett to 9 for 21 last week at home! 

Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin

#127 - Virginia Tech -20  *3:45 EST

Getting this under 24 is a gift.  Forget Beamer Ball, they Hokies are playing Foster Ball – and that means killer defense.  Qb Evans running the spread attack to perfection (46 ppg the last 3) and the Hokies face a beat and battered Syracuse team who has been shredded by spread attacks at home this year and play little offense, and VT will win this by 25-30 points in cruise control – Blowout.

Play 1 Unit on Virginia Tech

#166 - Troy -17  *3:30 EST

All over Troy here who is a great team with a tough early season schedule who gave Clemson all they wanted (6 point loss – only one of the season) and they are in revenge mode here after a 10 point loss to Georgia St last year.  GSU beat up on Texas St last week who has absolutely NO defense, they face a stiff defense here and I doubt they score over 14 if that.  Troy rolls in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Troy

#171 - Central Michigan -2.5  *3:30 est 

Looks like a trap line but Northern Illinois is settling in with a new QB and doing better, their defense is not and they face a high octane and efficient offense in Central Michigan led by all world QB Rush who is 1 yard shy of 1800 yards passing to date and has 15 TD passes against 5 picks and these same Chippewa’s have a road win over Okie State in case you forgot, despite the controversy.  They also have a stud RB in Spalding at 5.5 yards per rush!  CMU is a good football team gents, and beaten Northern Illinois by double digits in each of the past 2 years.  The Huskies are allowing 499 yards per game against lesser competition and getting this under 3 points (released line) is an absolute gift and NIU also has 2 DB’s out for this one with injury, WOW, and while crazy things happen on the road in conference play happens this time of year, trust me I have a 7 point overlay here and that is worth doubling up on this one.  CMU ranked 35th in offensive yards in the NCAA and NIU ranked 123rd on defense in yards allowed and a 2.5 point line.  CMU struggled against Ball St last week and lost the week before, oddsmakers have over adjusted this line.

Play 2 Units on Central Michigan

#117 - Eastern Michigan +7 to 7.5   *2 EST

This opened at near 10 but still value on the number of 7, as Eastern Michigan should keep pace with Ohio U and Frank Solich’s bunch this Saturday, and an outright win would not surprise me.  EMU well coached and has playmakers, and they know this is their best team in years with a solid offense with good balance, and the fact they have lost 8 straight to Ohio has them dialed in for this one.  I have won money on Solich all year but I fade him here.  Ohio U 0-3 ATS las home chalk their last 3, and EMU is 5-1 ATS this season.  QB Windham for Ohio is a good, but EMU can trade punches on the scoreboard.

Play 1 Unit on Eastern Michigan

San Diego +3

One of the biggest bettors in Las vegas hit the book early this morning with a 50 dime wager not only on the Chargers but the same amount of money on the moneyline for SD to win Straight up.  The ML in Vegas on Denver dropped from -185 to -150 on this and all books reacted.  The oddsmakers will not raise the line on the hook because sharps will crush them on it but ML did drop. This info comes courtesy of an oddsmakers I communicate with on a daily basis and this particular sharp (I cannot name him) I do follow and the guy rarely loses and is a low volume big player.  I did like SD all week but was still working up the game when this went down.   The Chargers have grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat all year and this looks way too easy to lay a short number with Denver, who got hammered last week with Atlanta at home, and frankly their QB situation is not all that stable and the Chargers Mike McCoy is really coaching for his life in this game.  Rivers the better QB, SD at home, whole season on the line in the AFC West here,  after they came up short against Oakland last week and already lost to KC after a 3 TD lead in their opener.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego

#475 - Tampa Bay + 5.5   *8:30 est 

Without Newton or Stewart, and a banged up LB Davis. despite Anderson’s past record against Tampa, I am taking the points here gents.  Sometimes when it is too good to be true in the NFL, it is not.  Look at Philly yesterday, the line stunk, was easy money and Detroit wins SU, and I drank the kool aide on that one, I will not do it again.  Carolina has looked horrific all year and now without Cam with their back against the wall it will not come easy.  Tampa can move the ball and if turnovers subside for them this could real interesting down the stretch for Tampa in this one.  The Super Bowl loser curse in full effect.

Play 1 Unit on Tampa

Bonus teaser HALF UNIT – Tease Tampa Up to +11.5  and Tease the Total UP to 52 and take the Under.

#471 -Cincy -1.5

OK Dallas has had a soft schedule, not sold on them in this game. Why do you think they are an underdog, besides the fact they have won just 1 game at home in their last 9?   Better coach, better QB for the Bengals.  Yeah I said it, Sherman has wernt to the Playoffs 5 years in a row, Jason Garrett cannot manage a clock.   Dalton is a stud, Cincy’s defense is better and Dallas will have their hands full against DL and Elliott will not run wild in this one. I will take Dalton over Prescott any day of the week, Dallas goes down here. Cincy added rest off a Thursday blowout, and Dallas off travel too.  Did I mention no Dez Bryant?  That’s a game changer.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

#461 - Philly -3

Biggest square bet on the board, biggest bet on any team at this number in Vegas this season to date, that is direct from my Las Vegas Oddsmakers mouth, most money all on 1 side in a game all year in Vegas, for good reason.  Detroit could not beat Chicago with Hoyer at QB, 2 RB’s out and half of the Bears secondary out.  WOW.  Philly off a bye and rested, and Philly DC Jim Schwartz returns back to Detroit where he was fired.  Perhaps Philly regresses a little now that teams have film on Carson Wentz, I just do not see the Lions hanging tough for 4 quarters here.  I am drinking the kool aide here. 

Play 1 Unit on Philly  

#453 - Tennessee +3.5

The hook might be enough.  Hurricane Matthew no doubt a distraction, and Miami should not be laying points to anyone as Adam Gase cannot his offense on track, Tannehill not the right QB for his system and the defense of the fish vastly over rated.  Tennessee won on the road at Detroit, Murray should have a big day running it and I cannot and will not lay points with a bad Dolphins team with NO OL right now and Dick LaBeau’s defense will blitz the dog crap out of him all day.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee

#406 - San Diego State -15.5   *10:30 EST 

For the second year in a row So. Alabama upset SDSU who was ranked headed into the weekend last week.  Rocky Long has a good team at SDSU and the flat out will run it down UNLV’s throat all night long, as SDSU the best running team in the Mountain West and UNLV cannot stop the run.  An Aztec team in a foul mood at home here rolls.   SDSU 11-1 ATS in conference play last 11 and frosh Rebel QB Sneed may have looked good against Fresno last week, but he will have the kitchen sink thrown at him in passing situations this week.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego State

R 

#393 - Southern Miss -16    *12 Noon EST Saturday

The Roadrunners of UTSA are in for a long day.  Their offense is ranked 111th in the NCAA and the Golden Eagles led by all world and NFL prospect QB Mullens are ranked 9th on offense with a veteran team putting up huge numbers on offense this season, and I have won with them every time I have put them out over the past 2 years gents.  This is a well-coached team, who has beat an SEC team badly, and flat out can get points on the board in a hurry and never let off the throttle.  UTSA allowing 25 ppg this season and scoring only 21 and the Eagles here are scoring 41 ppg and are 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this year (11-3 ATS their last 14 road games – UNREAL)  and they are putting up 539 yards a game.  Southern Miss’s only loss was to Troy due to turnovers and they out-statted them all over the place, and remember Troy damn near beat Clemson earlier this season.  UTSA got hammered my Old Dominion last week as a 6 point pup.

Play 1 Unit on Southern Miss

#382 - Mississippi State +2.5  *12 Noon EST

COWBELL in Starkville.  And a win too. Two losses on the year and a bad season with close losses to So. Alabama and LSU by 3.  Yep the Bulldogs might as well toss it in…think again!  Look Auburn has beaten NO ONE and a lopsided blowout of UL Monroe last week does not sway me.  Auburn has lost to the only good team they played which was Texas A&M.  They beat LSU on the fluke play where Les Miles again (before he was fired) blew the clock management and Arkansas St is hardly a power house either.  MSU is a good team who lacked focus early and made stupid mistakes.  This is Auburns first road game of the season.  MSU off a bye week and lying in wait at home for this one and Mullens is the vastly better coach here, and I expect MSU QB Fitzgerald to have big day through the air and on the ground, good dual threat QB, best one in this game by far.  3 Point home field advantage as well, and this really is a make or break game for the Bulldogs. 

Play 1 Unit on Mississippi State

Tulsa -17 to 17.5

Look SMU has no QB, and really are simply just giving the ball away too much, and Tulsa will take advantage of that with a high octane offense that SMU cannot trade punches with on the scoreboard. The Golden Hurricanes can do as much damage as Hurricane Matthew is on the east coast here.  They scored 45 or more in each game this season outside of Ohio State, and QB Evans for Tulsa should cherry pick a very suspect SMU secondary all night.  With QB Ben Hicks for SMU posting 51% in completions and 9 picks so far, doubt you can count on him to play from behind with any effectiveness.

Play 1 Unit on Tulsa  

NY Giants +4 
Look the Vikings cannot sustain the current pace, coming off a huge upset win, and a team where the defense has scored more TD's than the offense, not to mention the human turnover machine Sam Bradford has yet to throw a pick.  Chances are, and I am a gambling man that he will, and the Giants will cover this number.  Manning and company, Beckham and Cruze and a good running game will in fact keep pace despite the awesome defense that Minny has employed.  Your starting RB and QB out for the season and still undefeated SU and ATS.  I get that momentum however this is a bad number to lay against a capable team still stinging after giving a game away last week due to mistakes and turnovers and NY has the best QB playing in this game.  Good matchup with McAdoo (offense) and Zimmer (defense) at head coaches.  Sooner or later the monster cover streak Minny is on will go the pother way, it always does guys.  
Play 1 Unit on the NY Giants 
BONUS TEASER (same game 6 pointer - points added) - Tease NY to +10 and tease the Total up to 49 and take the UNDER 

#261 - Detroit -3
The fact this number is under the fall numer of 3 or at least getting it on 3 is crucial.  The Bears are the only team in the NFL that is 0-3 ATS, and for a reason.  An injury riddled secondary, and a QB situation that is dire, not to mention the top 2 RB's on the roster are out for this game and Cutler is 50/50 to play, and I hope he does, he is a human turnover machine against good defensive fronts (So is Hoyer), and Detroit has one.  The Lions QB Staffords is 3rd in passing in the NFL.  Better QB, better team overall, and healthier.
Play 1 Unit on Detroit

#264 - Houston -4.5
Tennessee could not even muster more than 10 points at home against Oakland's porous defense last week, and despite JJ Watt's departure, Houston is a tough team, beat a good KC team in here 2 weeks ago and they are clicking right now.  They also have had 10 days to prepare for this game off an ass kicking on Thursday Night Football against the Pats.  Bill O'Brien will have them ready for this one and doubt Tennessee has more than 10 points.
Play 1 Unit on Houston

#259 - Carolina -3
Here it is- Carolina struggled against good defenses, Atlanta does not have one.  This is where Carolina shines this week, and their offense, running game and Newton will all be on high alert against a defense that cannot stop the run, off a short week after MNF, and Carolina avenging their only loss last year in here as well.  Matt Ryan struggles against good defenses, and flourish's against bad ones ;like he did Monday and I was all over him.  Not today, Panthers defense shuts down Atlanta and Carolina off a loss here, and under pressure, must win game for Carolina, is my top play.  
Play 2 Units on Carolina - TOP PLAY

#199 - Michigan State -6.5  *8 EST

Wisconsin throttled DiAntiono’s bunch last week.  I would hate to be a Hoosier this Saturday night, even at home.  MSU is no joke and in this series 6 out of the last 7 games MSU covered the number and 5 of those covers are when MSU was off a loss ironically.  Expect Micgihan St defense to atone for last weeks debacle and a frosh QB beating them up.  Wake beat Indiana last week because Indiana turnover it over 5 times through the air and penalties galore, and before that they played a couple of patsies.  MSU by 14 here.  Going with a good coach here off a bad loss to get back in the win column with some focus, depsite Indiana’s big offensive numbers.

Play 1 Unit on Michigan State

#203 - Mizzou +13   *730 EST

Yeah LSU is for real at home, or are they?  Les Miles and OC Cam Cameron fired, team in disarray, Mizzou QB Lock the best QB in the game (14 TD passes – 3 picks and 1500+ yds) and frankly the Mizzou defense will keep an injured and not 100% Fournette at bay.  Mizzou allowing just 3.3 ypc and that includes playing Georgia, who won on a miracle against Mizzou 2 weeks ago.  Mizzou offense gaining confidence, had 79 points last week against nobody however they are starting to gel under new head coach Odom.  LSU overrated in the public eye, and a new coach will not change the fact in 1 week their offense sucks and should not be laying 2 TD’s to a capable team who has some pieces.

Play 1 Unit on Missouri

Tennessee -3.5

I doubt Georgia can muster a game here off an ass kicking and Tennessee full of confidence after the Florida win and they are battle tested already.  The Vols have the better QB and offense wand Georgia without Chubb at RB or very limited at best cannot keep pace with Tennessee here. 

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee

UL Monroe +33

Scheduling spot situation for Auburn.  UL Monroe’s QB Garrett Smith the best QB in this game and they covered a big number in a big loss to Oklahoma earlier this season.  That said Auburn off a controversial win against LSU that costs Les Miles his job since he didn’t manage the clock again, but Auburn beat up physically after that game and they have Mississippi State on deck.  UL Monroe has covered every spread dating back to Late November of 2015.  Auburn has exceeded 33 points total on offense only 2 times dating back to October of last year!  Auburn wins with ease but 33 too many.  Sandwich spot for Tigers.

Play 1 Unit on UL Monroe

#149- Ohio U -2 to 2.5  *2:30 EST

Gents I have this line at 6.5 on my power ratings and the line has dropped off of 3.5 - WOW.  Frank Solich is a good head coach, hell Nebraska should have never fired him after a 9-3 year in 2001, but his teams get better each week of the season and he has another stud QB in Windham that can run and throw (920 yards passing and  7 TD’s only 1 pick)  who is careful with the ball and a dual threat big time, as he leads the team in rushing.  The Bobcats offense is better than last year’s edition and Miami of Ohio is winless with no defense, and Solich and his team have beaten Miami of Ohio 9 out of the last 10 times.  Ohio off a win won last Week) is a solid 8-1 ATS off a win, and Solich should open up a can of whoop ass against here, as he beat them last year 34-3 and Miami of Ohio hasn’t gotten much better.  Cheap number

Play 1 Unit on Ohio U 

Cincy -7.5

Why is this line so high after Denver waxed Cincy in their own house Sunday?  Because oddsmakers are baiting you to take the points here.  I am not falling for this trap line even with a hook and on a fall number, they are fully expecting Cincy to win big here.  Miami is poorly coached, the Browns outplayed and dominated them in the 4th quarter last week, the close number against New England a few weeks ago was a hoax, as most of their points came in garbage time after the Pats put them away.Also we have all seen Seattles offensive woes this season so a close one there was not impressive, they gave away the game.  

Cincy at home on short week is at a huge advantage and I am not sold on Miami despite their defense and Dalton's OL in pass protection leaves a lot to be desired.  Cincy got their run game going last week, and play action passing off that should bear fruit for the Bengals.  Bear in mind Miami almost got beat by the Browns folks and while you cannot put stalk into what you last saw all the time and expect the same in the NFL, Miami has yet to put it together and Cincy has the most talented and deep roster in the AFC despite their coaching at times and should win by 10+ here.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy - lay it. 

Atlanta +3
A Westgate Supercontest pick here, I am on the Dirty Birds, as I was last week against Oakland - and Oakland beat New orleans in Week 1 in here.  New Orleans in the Dome is not feared anymore and nor they should be at 4-10 ATS their last 14 at home.  They managed 1 TD last week against a below average Giants defense and their defense in general is flat out bad.  Matt Ryan does love to throw picks, which always is a risk but all the weapons on his side of the ball is scary at the WR position and I rate Atlanta's defense slightly better than New Orleans.  Atlanta playing with Double revenge as New Orleans swept them last year including being a 5 point dog at Atlanta,and despite the chants that the Saints cannot go 0-3 with Brees and Sean Peyton pulling the strings and gunslinging all over the place, with no defense and a bad team in my opinion, they do start 0-3.  
Play 1 Unit on Atlanta
2 Team Same Game 6 Point teaser - tease Atlanta to +9 and tease the Total up to 59.5 and take the UNDER. 

#481 - Pittsburgh -3.5
Yep - Drinking the Kool Aid and laying the hook on a huge Public side and betting square, but Philly beating up a bad Browns team and a bad Bears team impresses me little.  I will not bet against Big Ben versus a rookie QB that has yet to see a team as physical as the Steelers, and Tomlin the better coach in this game as well. The defense for the Eagles has been decent this year (bear in mind they faced RG III and a bad Jay Cutler)  which was unexpected however they have yet to face a QB of this caliber and RB Williams is leading the NFL in rushing. All the weapons and experience at QB on the Steelers side here. Whats not to like at under 4 points for the Steelers?  Trust me, the secondary of the Bears that Wentz saw last week was a like a JUCO team compared the Steelers, it will not come easy this week.
Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh

#471 - Washington +3.5
Yes an ugly call here that might raise your eyebrows, with lack of chemistry on offense but not sold completely on the Giants defense and they have been winning close games all season.  This is a must win for the Skins or they go 3 games down to NY in the NFC East, and they were the division champs last season.  I say Norman can shut down 1 outlet for Manning at WR whether it be Cruze or Beckham, and the Skins should be able to put some points up and not have red zone issues here near as poorly as the first 2 games.  Over the fall number of 3 is crucial here.  Expect and all out effort from Washington today as they have circled the wagons this week for this game.
Play 1 Unit on Washington

Oklahoma St +9

Baylor has talent.  Baylor also is not coached by Art Briles.  Okie St should be undefeated and they have all the firepower in the word on offense has they return 19 starts to this team, 10 of them on offense.  Must win for Cowboys here off a 45 point output against a good Pitt defense last week.  Baylor was tied 6-6 at halftime against SMU a few weeks back and this is Baylor’s first real test.  Last 4 games Baylor . Okie State combined score 152-146 combined score and Baylor laying over a TD here in what should be last guy with the ball wins?  I will take the points with a veteran team who will be ready and are battle tested much more than Baylor.  Baylor has yet to cover a spread this season!  Wow.  Okie State also avenging a 10 point home loss to Baylor last year.

Play 1 Unit on Okie State

#315 - Central Florida -6.5 * 7 EST 

UCF Head coach Scott Frost used a 2nd string QB last week to take Maryland into overtime and they almost pulled off the upset SU as a 9-point pup.  Those same Maryland Terps POUNDED Florida International the week before 41-14 and I like the way the UCF is playing, and back up QB Milton went for 269 yards and 2 TDs last week.  FIU scoring 13 ppg on offense and rank 124th in offense nationally and Milton will get the start at QB again this week for the Knights.  FIU has not covered a spread dating back to last year, in their last 7 games.  UCF puts up 21 here they cover – no sweat.  Scott Frost was Oregon’s OC the last couple of years and knows how to put points up and will not let off the throttle here as UCF avenging a home loss by 1 point last year to FIU

Play 1 Unit on Central Florida

Army – 13.5

Sold on Army, playing Buffalo who got beat as a 3 TD fav in week 1 by an FCS school and the red hot Knights roll into town here fresh off a massive blowout win over UTEP last week as a 4 Point fav (66-14) and I had them last week.  The triple option of Army should destroy Buffalo.  Buffalo’s run defense ranked 114th in the NCAA!  Total Mis-Match guys. 

Play 1 Unit on Army (again)

Michigan –18.5

Penn State in huge trouble here.  Minus 5 defensive starters and catching Jim Harbuagh in a bad mood off a win over Colorado where Michigan did not show up ready to play.  Penn State 2013 ATS on the road their last 15.  I watched Penn State attempt to run against Pitt 2 weeks ago to the tune of under 3 yards per carry, and Michigan’s D vastly better than Pitt who gave up 45 last week!   This is going to be a blowout.  Michigan by 25+

1 unit

#307 - Wyoming -3.5   *7:30 EST

I have had the good fortune of seeing Wyoming play in person this year in Lincoln NE.  The final score in that game is deceptive because with 11 minutes left in the game, Wyoming was down 24-17 and driving.  They pissed down their leg with 3 turnovers and faltered due to Nebraska's sheer size qand depth and speed, they ran out of gas.  QB Allen is a good QB and Craig Bohl is a good coach, he is the guy who put North Dakota State on the map gents.  Eastern Michigan does not have the speed or depth of a Nebraska and Wyoming should roll here by 14.  I watched closely the EMU game against Missouri, and they made Mizzou's offense look like Louisville. A must win for Wyoming with Mountain West conference play starting next week.  

Play 1 Unit on Wyoming.

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Bears -3 

Do you think John Fox is going to let a rookie QB come in and beat his Bears tonight in their home opener?  His key weapon at Tight End is out tonight – which is a big deal guys!  While the Bears are not all that, beating up on Cleveland last week does not impress me on the Eagles side of things either.  Chicago has had added time to let the second half debacle against a very good Houston team last week set in, and I expect Cutler and company to find success against a young Eagle’s defense and put up enough points to cover the number at home here.  It is crucial that Chicago does not go down 0-2 in their division with all other teams having at least 1 win.  64% of public supporting the Eagles, I like the home team who people think stink after last weeks debacle in Houston.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

Green Bay -2.5

Looks like a take on Sunday night for a home dog – I think not and I will tell you why in 2 words – SAM BRADFORD.  A total turnover machine who does not have the whole playbook at his disposal against one of the best teams in the NFL and Aaron Rodgers laying less than a FG in this game with his full complement of WR’s and Lacey thinner and meaner at RB?  I know a new stadium opening and prime time TV and ect, Minny not all that and beat a mediocre team last week and had to come from behind to do it.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay

Indy +6.5

Yeah they lost to the Lions at home in a thriller, but they managed a ton of points against a good Lions defense.  Andrew Luck the best QB in this game, and although they won’t run it A TON AGAINST THIS FRONT FOUR, NOT SOLD ON Denver even with added time, to get into a shootout with Indy and cover a big number with a damn near rookie QB and a line that looks to0 good to be true.  Indy hangs around, never gives up and QB Luck a big time gamer.  This is a sharp side in Vegas guys, against the public.

Play 1 Unit on Indy

Atlanta +4.5 to 5

Oakland ready for primetime laying points?  This will be a flat out shootout and while Oakland will put up points, have no illusions, Atlanta will too.  Matt Ryan has 3 weapons to throw to, a run game and I like their chances here with Oakland off a huge emotional win on the road last week, and remember New Orleans plays no defense what so ever. 3-point game either way.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

#185 - Michigan State +7.5 to 8  *7:30 EST

Remember you are betting into numbers and not games, and this one is on and or over a fall number.  The Irish always have a premium number attached to them as a public darling, but Michigan State has had an extra week to prepare and when ND played a good team in Texas , they had numerous weakness’s exposed.  Dantonio is a good head coach for MSU, especially in big games, Spary has a solid 1-2 punch at RB and an added week for QB O’Conner to get ready, and a Michigan State defense that I feel is better than ND catching a full TD or more, I will gladly take the points here,  Let’s see QB Kizer really get tested here in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Michigan State

Georgia -7 (this line will go up to 8 or higher by Saturday)

Look this is a perfect scenario - Just Like Tennessee is Week 2 laying just 11 to a bad VT team. The Vols struggled the week before in OT against lowly Application State and that debacle kept the line down.  Well Georgia almost lost at home to Nichols St while Mizzou was beating up a nobody in Eastern Michigan, and while watching that game I told my buddy that we were gonna get under 10 points with Georgia, and trust me, Mizzou cannot stop the Bulldog running game (even though the Georgia QB is not all that good it wont matter Chub will go ballistic.  Anyone good on defense, or even average will shut down Mizzou.  Their QB Lock looked like an ass clown against West Virginia and they could not stop the Mountaineers in that game and their vaunted defense gave up 494 yards in that game and gave up 428 yards to Eastern Michigan although they blew them out. West Virginia DOMINATED Mizzou (I had them in that game -10), and Georgia is better than WV in my opinion, even on the road at Mizzou whose home field might be worth a point and Mizzou fans throw it in if they are getting beat as well, not a riotous environment at all.  A new head coach and staff at Mizzou, no running game, an average to below average QB and no offensive line what so ever for Mizzou will result in a 12+ point Georgia win, who now will have their head clearly out of their rear end after last weeks scare.

2 Units on Georgia  

#121 - Maryland -9   *7 est 

Scott Frost got a wakeup call last week as to why George O’Leary did not win a game at UCF last season, the lack of talent going up against BCS schools is significant for Central Florida (0-5 ATS and SU their last 5 against BCS schools), who just got hammered at Michigan last week, and while the Terps are not Michigan, they will attack through the air and cherry pick the Knights bad secondary for points all day.  Rarely will you see the Terps laying a TD+ on the road at anytime in recent memory, with UCF’s QB questionable for this weeks game after injury last week with a hamstring, it lessens the chances of UCF’s offense to trade any punches on the scoreboard this week, and off a road trip to Michigan, they are beat up this week.  Maryland’s Harrison and Edmunds at RB are a nice 1-2 punch, Terps pull away in the second half here.

Play 1 Unit on Maryland 

#141- Army -3.5   *7 EST

Yes, all the armed forces teams are 6-0, but Army taking on a weak UTEP team who I have no faith in here especially with QB Greenlee out.  Cadets ground attack and triple option too much for weak UTEP stop unit to contend with for 4 quarters, especially with a 2nd string QB expected to take the reins.  Army giving up 13 ppg against Rice and Temple, UTEP giving up 31 ppg! 

Play 1 Unit on Army

#151 - San Diego State -10.5 to 11   *3:330 EST

No. Illinois QB Hare is out, and No Illinois not the MAC Powerhouse of old and their defense is deplorable SDSU is an absolute beast, cover machine and on a roll, and they just beat a good Cal team last week.  I love the Aztecs here by 20 in a blowout.  SDSU too big up front on the DL for No Illinois to do anything on offense with backup Graham running the offense.  This is an under the radar team, and yes coming off a big win with travel, but their size is too much for Huskies.  SDSU well coached team.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego State 

Houston -7.5

Two things here.  I won money with Cincy over Purdue last week as a premium play, and I won money for you with Houston over Oklahoma in week 1.  The reason Cincy beat a beat up Purdue last week in a lopsided score was Purdue, who is deplorable, had 3 defensive starters out, and Purdue’s QB threw 5 picks in that game.  I cannot count on Tubberville at anytime coaching in a big game.  Greg Ward is a flat out 1 man wrecking crew at QB for Houston, who DOMINATED Oklahoma who is twice the team that Cincy is, and this Houston defense is NO Joke, they shit hammered OU into submission.  Ward is rested as he sat out last week’s game against Lamar and Houston still won 42-0 in a shutout, his shoulder is fine for this game.  Cincy gave up 5-4 yards to Purdue – enough said.  This is one of the few hurdles left for Houston this year in order to go undefeated, they will be ready.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#482 - San Fran +2.5
Should be a snooze fest on offense (Under worth a look), however the home team here I feel has the better chance to get tit done.  Gabbert is the QB and that is a tough bet to swallow with him at QB, but Chip Kelly is always gunning and taking chances and I feel the trench war will be won by by an underrated unit on both sides of the ball for San Fran.  the LA Rams Keenum at QB is no bargain, he is a career backup starting as they groom their top QB pick, and San Fran will be locked and loaded to stop RB Gurley which will be the Rams main weapon tonight.  Rams over valued here.
Play 1 Unit on San Fran 
Two team 6 Point Teaser (points added).  Tease Washington to +9 and tease the Total in the Rams / Niners game to 48.5 and take the UNDER - 1 Unit

#473  -NY Giants +1

Dak Prescott and RB Elliott are rookies!  Without Romo the Cowboys have lost 23 out of 33 SU and despite a good OL, not sure they dominate enough for 2 rookies to steal the show against Manning and company and an improved defense for NY.  The Giants have not beaten Dallas since 2012, losers of 7 straight and they will have their A game for this one.   The rookie QB has everyone who is a Dallas backer excited after a stellar Preseason, but I have seen this hundreds of times in my 25 years of capping, August NFLX games are not the regular season and expect NY to attack him and confuse h8im with schemes and coverages.  NY wins outright.

Play 1 Unit on NY Giants

#475 - Lions +3

Unreal as it sounds the Lions are 4-1 SU in season openers the last 5 years, and they should win this game outright.  Indy's OL and DL is a mess, and Andrew Luck is not surrounded by the better talent, QB Matt Stafford is for the Lions.  A 1-2 punch at RB, good WR's even without Megatron this year, and the real mismatch is in the trenches that is an advantage for the Lions.  Indy will not be able to run it and Detroit will.  Also Indy's best cover corner is out and their secondary is very suspect. Lions very underrated in my opinion and are no easy out for anyone.  

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

#463 - Chargers +6.5

Justin Houston out for KC, RB Charles is out and KC’s secondary is going to give up big plays, and stud Eric Berry just returned to camp after a holdout and had no preseason work.  QB Rivers for the Chargers has now a decent OL in place and weapons around him and I feel he will exploit a bad secondary for KC and without Houston at LB for KC, I think that is a huge hot for the defense.  KC is not explosive on offense and have nothing behind QB Smith as they traded away their best option to Philly, so if he goes down for any reason, Foles is not any help.  Philip Rivers the better QB in this game and the Bolts have not forgot the 0-2 effort against KC last year where they were outscored 46-6.  Oh by the way SD has not beaten KC in 2 years as KC is 4-0 SU, Chargers will be dialed in for this one.  This could go either way but too many points for KC to cover in week 1 even at home.  Alex Smith for KC cannot stretch the field vertically, nothing has changed and against a stout SD secondary he won’t take chances and either will Reid with his conservative play calling.  Tight game in my opinion.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego

#364 - Miss. St -7

First of all GREAT Line value here with the Bulldogs at home at night, cowbell central.  The Bulldogs LOST to South Alabama last week and this is an overreaction.  South Carolina sucks gents, and beating bottom feeder Vandy last Thursday means nothing.  Miss State under Mullens is a beast at home in Starkville, and it is a very tough venue to play in.  No more Dak Prescott, he is starting for the Cowboys this Sunday and there is a drop off, but SC will get exposed here.  Remember Vandy screwed the pooch in their game with SC and blew a 10-0 halftime lead and also this is back to back roadies for the Gamecocks.  Miss. St will show up huge in this game, spitting nails, and will ROMP an over valued South Carolina team behind a wild crowd.  Bulldogs get beat by So. Bama and still lay a TD?  Vegas Begging you to take SC here.  Don’t be fooled.

Play 1 Unit on Mississippi State

Ohio U +3

Yes, Frank Solich returns to Kansas where he coached many a game as an assistant, and a head coach at Nebraska, as well as playing as a player back in the day for the Huskers as well.  We are catching a number here that shifted 12 points from an opening summer line of Ohio U -9.  Wow.  Yes, Ohio U lost in a shocker to Texas St last week while Kansas who was dead last in the NCAA last year on offense scored 55 last week against Rhode Island.  Well, the Bobcats are vastly better than Rhode Island and will get back to their winning ways with Solich as head coach, who is a cagey veteran head coach who will have his boys ready to take on a bottom feeder Big 12 foe who may have been celebrating their first win since 2014 season a little longer than need be.  Ohio U blew a big lead last week in the 4th quarter, and Bobcat QB Windam is another good QB for Ohio and had 380 yards passing and 4 TD’s with no picks and Solich will run it KU as well, their DL starts 3 sophomore’s and their secondary is weak, so expect Ohio U to throw the playbook at them both ways. 

Play 1 Unit on Ohio U

#331 - NC State -5

I do a weekly radio show in Greenville SC, and the station is the Pirate Nation Radio Station Hub for East Carolina.  The guy who LOVES the Pirates said they would lose by at least 14 this weekend.  QB Nelson last week looked for ECU which was a huge concern for them, but this is a huge step up in class for ECU and I cannot ignore the fact NC States coach Doeren is 7-0-1 ATS against non ACC foes his last 8 and the last 4-0 ATS the road as chalk.  Small number here un der a TD, I will gladly lay it.  QB Finley who transferred from Boise St is the real deal for the Wolfpack, and he has a more than an above average RB unit to pound the smaller ECU defense all day.

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina State

#321 - Cincinnati -5.5

Purdue is horrible guys, and Cincy underperformed last week.  Purdue is just 2-7 ATS their last 9 at home and the 1-2 punch at RB and possibly QB and up tempo style of offense that Cincy has, along with better coaching from Tubberville is all you need to know.  There are mis-matches in talent all over the field, and frankly does anyone think there is a huge home field advantage with Purdue here.  Eastern Kentucky put up 398 yards against Purdue last week and Cincy struggled against UT Martin, thus a soft line, trust me the Bearcats will have their game face on in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Cincinnati

#168 - UTEP  Anywhere from -9 to 9.5    **8 EST Kickoff

New Mexico State is in big trouble.  They have little QB depth, one transferred out, another one was arrested and UTEP is by far the better team and have covered 7 straight in this series.  The best player for NMS is their running back Rose who may or may not play due to a hernia and surgery and iof he does play will not be at full speed.  UTEP big up front on both sides of the ball and have beaten the hell of NMS by double digits in each of the past 3 home games against them, some of the blowouts.   UTEP RB Jones should have a big day.

Play 1 Unit on UTEP

#186 – Texas AM -2.5   * 3:30 EST

UCLA way over respected here folks.  This is a team who lost to 5 wins Nebraska last year in a bowl game and Texas AM is clearly better.  Texas AM has Trevor Knight at QB and he is heads and shoulders above Rosen for UCLA who was hyped all last year but made numerous mistakes along the way, and this is a SEC defense he is facing.  Trust me, the sweltering heat in College Station in early September will play a role and Texas AM will have more gas in the tank in this one.  College Station is worth 3 points alone and laying less than a FG at release time.   This line will be 3 or more by gameday and still worth it.  Oh yeah, UCLA’s offensive coordinator from last year is now Texas AM’s OC!! 

Play 1 Unit on Texas AM

#166 - West Virginia -10  *12 est

Mizzou has a new head coach, a scheme and all new coaches without Gary Pinkel around.  Add in the fact they were a bottom feeder with little offense in the SEC last year, and this is West Virginia’s year to make or break Dana Holgorsen as head coach for WV.  Morgantown is a brutal road trip first of all, and Mizzou has some issues at QB for sure this season, and look to break in a youngster in this one which is not good news.  The Mizzou defense adept to speed playing in the SEC however West Virginia’s speed on offense is no joke and QB Skylar Howard is the real deal with 7 returning starters on offense to challenge the Tigers defense who lost the NCAA’s leading tackler Brothers last year at LB to graduation.  Not sold on Drew Lock’s ability at QB to open in a big game like this and trade punches on the scoreboard.  West Virginia will not let off the throttle in this one, they never do. 

Play 1 Unit on West Virginia

#198 - Houston +10.5 to 10  (this line will drop)   12 EST

Have no doubts, Oklahoma is loaded, and will contend for the Big 12 title and also a Final 4 playoff spot in the BCS, but do not discount Houston playing this one on national TV in NRG Stadium with all world and game breaker Greg Ward at QB.  He is the biggest playmaker in CFB and perhaps even better in the clutch as well, and kill you on the ground and through the air where he is the AAC Conference’s most accurate passer heading into this season.  For OU to lay 10 or more in this game on the road to open the season is dangerous.  Houston’s offense scored 40 ppg last season and will put up points here regardless of the step up in class.  Remember this is a team who beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl last year!  OU will find success through the air and Houston lost some OL lineman last year, but out of the gate OU is playing a team who is in their backyard with nothing to lose and a huge player maker at their disposal who gives defenses fits again is dangerous.  Grab the points.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#134 - Florida International +10 to 10.5  *7:30 EST

At home against Indiana.  The Hoosiers lost 80% of their offense with the graduation of stud QB Nate Sudfeld and replaced him to start the season with a JUCO QB.  Also bear in mind that Indiana gave up 36 ppg on defense last year but could outscore people and yes they did take Michigan to OT last year, but that was because of Sudfeld at QB.  FIU has a veteran offense with 9 returning starters on it, and QB McGough for them is the best QB on the field and is at home.  They are avenging a 36-22 loss last year to Indiana, I like the big points and the home dog to get the cover with their offense keeping them in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Florida International.  

#101 - Carolina -5.5   6:30 EST Kickoff

Yeah, shoulda bet this at -4 or 4.5 but I did not know the public would pound Carolina like they did, but they are BY FAR the better team.  Yes it is a square side and this is a ton of points in the Super Bowl but Carolina is flat out a TD to 10 points better.  The Panthers just lit up 2 of the best defenses in the NFL outside of Denver for 80 points.  Cam Newton is going to prove difficult to defend for Wade Philips and a great defense here.  While this is a bunch of no name guys on offense outside of TE Olsen, they are effective and have great chemistry and role play well,  and make big plays when Newton buys time in the pocket.  Something Brady and Big Ben were unable to do against Denver’s defense.   Carolina just finds ways to pick apart good defenses.  Denver has a great defense, but an offense that struggles in the red zone, and a team overall who has really struggled in their last 3 games to win, and quite frankly their red zone offense sucks, and they will struggle with one of the better defenses they have seen in months.  I am a Manning fan, but he is washed up and a shell of his old self.  The Panthers are fearless, opportunistic, have the best record in the NFL at 17-1 which is no accident, and have the league MVP at QB.   Square side, yes, but the right side, just cannot take Manning and an inefficient offense against Panther defense to cover the number although it is a good number for a dog in a big game.  I think Panthers by 10.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

Totals Play – 1 Unit on the UNDER 45

SAME GAME TEASE – 6 Point Side / Total Tease – Tease Carolina to +.5 and Tease the Total UP to 51 and take the UNDER.

PROPS - ALL LINES ARE FROM CG TECHNOLOGY IN LAS VEGAS – You can find these Props at almost any book but the moneyline might be slightly different – these are common props found almost everywhere, some of the numbers might vary slightly.  All are 1 Unit Plays with the exception of the Top Play first half line play.

1.        TOP PROP BET – Panthers -3 / First Half Line – Panthers get out of the gate in a hurry, especially in their last 2 games and I expect that to continue.  2 UNIT PLAY -120

2.       Will Greg Olsen (Panthers) Score a TD?  YES at +120

3.       Total combined Interceptions OVER 1.5 at -130 – You have 2 good secondary’s guys.  I think Manning will have 2!

4.       Ted Ginn Jr. (Panthers)  OVER 2 receptions -115

5.       Greg Olsen (Panthers) OVER 73.5 yards receiving -120 – Cam Newton’s go to guy – they surely are not going to use him as a decoy!

6.       Peyton Manning (Bronco’s) UNDER 34.5 pass attempts – 115 .   Lots of 3 and outs and Denver WANTS to run the ball. 

AND FOR A LONGSHOT – Play a half unit on – YES there will be a safety +700!  

Thanks for all your biz this season in the NFL.  Over 65% all in, close top 70% with Teasers added.  Good Year of profits and lots of top plays cashing too.  Best of Luck, see ya next August for NFLX!  Tony G 

Denver +3

Taking Manning over Brady – but that is not the tale here.  It is Denver to beat New England Straight up.  Better defense at home getting points.  Better running game at home getting points in a Championship game.  Basic Handicapping rules 101!  TAKE THE POINTS  Denver should be able to run it right at New England all day.  Manning will have success through the air if this is the case.  On the other hand New England’s greatest strength is passing it, and they face a team who can get after the QB and sack him (NFL high 52 sacks this year) unlike Kansas City last week, and Denver has the best pass defense in the NFL.  Mile High Stadium also worth a couple of points here, and New England has not been a good road team this year. 

Play 1 Unit on Denver

Carolina -2.5

Getting this under a field goal is a great line.  If not for Blair Walsh missing a 27 yard shank FG last week, Seattle would not be here.  Carolina well rested, at home where they are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS and score 30 ppg on offense and allow 17 ppg on defense.  This is a 1 loss team that has the NFL’s MVP starting at QB (he will win it) and between Newton and Wilson, I will take Newton who already has beat Seattle on the road this year and Carolina is avenging a bad playoff loss to Seattle last year.  All the makings of a good game here, but a home team with a rock start QB, better running game and just as good of defense with Newton at the helm is a take.

Play 3 Units on Carolina 

New England -4 to 5

My hear is with KC since I live here, but it also gives me clarity for KC.  Their biggest weapon is Smith running it in busted pass blocking for him, the Pats can take that away.  Also no WR is going to open long enough for Smith to throw it.  Andy Reid makes bonehead calls, always has, and he is 1-4 as a head coach versus Mr. Hoodie.  Brady versus Alex Smith is also a no brainer.  KC will have issues running it against the Pats DL and not sure if they double up on Kelce at TE, how KC is going to score.  Injuries are an issue and the OL of the Pats is suspect, but it is Bready at home in the Playoffs, and his teams pedigree and experience, they win by a TD to 10 points.

Play 1 Unit on New England

Clemson +6.5 to 7

You have to ask yourself this question.  Who has beaten Alabama over the past 3 years and what was the makeup of the team?  It was teams who ran a spread attack with a dual threat QB.  The strength of Bama’s team is their defense, especially in the middle of the field.  The outside and edges can be exposed, just ask Ol Miss.  In big games over the past 3 years they lost to Auburn (at the time a spread attack), Oklahoma and Johnny Football led Texas AM, all spread attack teams, and there is NO doubt Clemson runs a spread attack with the best spread QB in the country.  Michigan State ran it right at Bama and got killed and had no vertical threat, bad prep by MSU’s coaching staff who Sabin has 3 weeks to prep for on his end and knew it.  Clemson has the best QB in the game,  Clemson DOMINATED an Oklahoma team vastly better than Michigan State.  Alabama’s offense is predicated on the run, Clemson can slow down that run and put the game on Bama’s QB who by QB standards is average at best.  Alabama is not invincible folks, and have some weakness’s that play into Clemson’s hands.  Mobile QB’s and spread attacks give Alabama trouble.  Did I mention Clemson’s defense is no slouch? 

Play 1 Unit on Clemson to cover the number.

Thanks for all your CFB business this season.  The bowls were not my best, but overall I hope you cashed out plenty of tickets this season.   

 #108 -Washington (Pick) TO -1

What’s not to like about Washington.  After getting hammered by Carolina, QB Cousins ripped off 14 TD passes and 1 pick and Washington is playing at home against a Green Bay team in disarray, off a bad loss, and quite frankly an OL that is total cheesecloth. Rodgers has no time to throw the ball, they cannot run it either with any consistency.  I do not see even with Rodgers at QB the Packers just flipping a switch and playing great ball because the last 6 weeks or so have been flat out bad football.  They are an average team at best, could not even win a crappy division and they had at least 5 wins this year where they were totally outplayed.

Play 2 Units on Washington – TOP PLAY

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser – tease Minny to +11 and Tease Washington to +6 – Play 1 Unit 

Minnesota +5

Going take Minny to Cover and Seattle to win.  With frigid temps at -20 in this game on the field, Minny has practiced outside all week, Seattle has been indoors.  While Seattle has experience, the legion of boom, and Russel Wilson, Minny has revenge on their mind and in a game where running the ball is going to be very important that favors Minny, and Minny has a healthy defense as opposed to the last game, and AP running the ball for Minny is going to be huge.  I expect a low scoring game which brings points into play, and I see a down to wire game here and Zimmer will have his boys ready.  Do not read too much into the Arizona win last week for Seattle, St Louis punked them in their house the week before.

Play 1 Unit on Minny

Kansas City -3

Going with a hot team, KC who is on a 10-0 run, 7-3 ATS and fund a way to almost win their division after a 1-5 start.  Ask yourself this question, who has the better coach and better QB?  That is Kansas City.  A strong running game, a QB that does not turn it over a a ball hawking secondary up against QB Hoyer and a better than average defense with Andy Reid calling the shots.  KC has struggled in the post season but you cannot deny a 10 game run and Houston has issues on offense.  KC also has great special teams.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City

Minnesota +3 - may wait to get 3.5 everywhere..line going up...public loves to bet the Packers! 
Not laying points with Green Bay here, last week they were exposed and Minny playing with revenge here after a home loss and Zimmer will have his boys fired up and look for Petersen to have a big day here.  Green Bay's offense is not in sync and the defense is overworked because of it, Minny finds a way here to win SU.
Play 1 Unit on Minny

Seattle +6.5 
Zona really has nothing to play for and this line is an over reaction to Zona's blowout of a very over rated Packer team and a Seahawks loss last week to a feisty Rams team.  Doubt Seattle lays down here under Carroll and catching them off a loss getting almost a TD against a team looking to get into the playoffs healthy is a gift.
Play 1 Unit on Seattle

Oakland +7 to 7.5
Kansas City's offense is not all that good and Oakland always gives KC fits.  A lot on the line for KC here and Del Rio will pull out all the stops against a hated rival, KC has their 2 best players out on defense in Houston and Hali and have no pass rush, and I doubt QB Carr turns it over 3 times in the second half this time around.   Also moving this game to later in the day is an advantage for Oakland. 
Play 1 Unit on Oakland

2 Team 6 Points Teaser - Play 1 Unit - Tease Buffalo to +8.5 and tease Pittsburgh down to -5.  

Arizona State +2

Last I saw West Virginia they were getting beat by a 5 win Kansas State team.  West Virginia on the road is a trainwreck.  Speaking of the road, this game is at Chase Field in Phoenix (Diamondbacks stadium) so it is a home game basically for the Sun Devils.  Should be a shootout of sorts here.  AZ State blitzes the QB well, and now healthy across the board on offense for the Sun Devils at all skill positions,  their read option attack should give WV fits and I see them by a TD here.
Play 1 Unit on AZ State 

Oregon -7
No other way to look.  90% of TCU's offense out with the QB suspended, starting Big 12 1st team center out, and their stud WR out.  Boykin gave them a chance, now they have none and Oregon absolutely turned it around the second half of the season, and QB Adams a stud and bear in mind the Big 12 has looked like dogshit for the most part in the bowls.  Oregon beat a good Stanford team and TCU without weapons are dead here, Oregon will attack on defense up front.  Oregon's bad defense will not have much of a challenge.
Play 1 Unit on Oregon 

Georgia -6
Anyone see how the Big 10 is performing in big games in the postseason outside of Ohio State?  Georgia without a head coach and Penn Sate whose offense is woeful is without an OC as he fired after the last game.  It is Georgia's defense allowing 16 ppg against a struggling offense and a QB who completed just 53% of his passes is the key in this game.  Too much speed for Penn State to handle and outside of running the ball Penn State cannot play from behind in hurry up mode.
Play 1 Unit on Georgia

Notre Dame +6

Ohio St may have been the over rated team in the nation all year outside of fellow brethren Michigan State and we saw what Bama did to them already.  Notre Dame defense is the key to this game and if they stop the run which they can, OSU's passing offense ranked dead last in the Big 10 this year.  

Play 1 Unit on the IRISH

Bonus Play - Stanford -6 for half unit 

Michigan State +9.5 to 10

In a low scoring game which is expected here, big points is always a take.  Alabama did nothing on offense to impress me all year and they struggled against a bad Auburn team for their season finale and sputtered most the game in the SEC Championship and are not capable of making big plays for the most part other than Henry breaking a big run, and Michigan State has the better QB and the best resume of any team in the Final 4 with some big wins, and despite a lone loss to Nebraska, in a game where the refs gave the game to Nebraska, I expect the MSU defense to contain Henry and for Conner Cook at QB for Sparty to make some plays down the field.  MSU never gives up, are well coached and are from a conference where they are champs that had 4 teams ranked in the Top 10 at seasons end.

Play 1 Unit on Michigan State

Clemson +3.5

Wrong team favored.  Not sold on Bob Stoops in a Bowl game or a big game, his reputation does not match his bowl record and bear in mind Clemson without their starting QB last year in a bowl game waxed OU.  No doubt a shootout here with 2 good offenses and 2 good coaches and some big playmakers on both sides of the ball.  It has been an added time for OU since they have played since the Big 12 has no Championship and I think the overall team speed for the Tigers here is an advantage, and they are playing up the no respect card as being #1 and still an underdog.  Clemson only allowed a 46% completion rate through the air this year to opponents and are stout against the run.  Also DC Vennables is Bob Stoops ex DC and knows the OU system well as evidenced last year in a 40-6 win over the Sooners.  

Play 1 Unit on Clemson 

Houston + 7

Florida State just ain’t all that and anyone who has seen Houston play this year know Greg Ward is a rock star stud QB for the Cougars that can absolutely kill any defense and is unstoppable.  Yes they face a better defense than average but this is a legitimate conference champion shown no respect with a good head coach, and a team that shut down Navy and Southern Miss and has but 1 loss all season.  The Cougs have bowl experience after a wild comeback win over Pitt last year in the bowl game for them as well.  Florida State does have quality players and will put up some points here but at days end giving Houston and their dual threat QB this many points is a mistake.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

USC -3

First look at strength of schedule.  Wisconsin ranked 70th and USC ranked 3rd in scheduling.  Huge advantage here for USC as well, they are playing within an hour bus ride of campus and a strong home field type advantage.  Thirdly and most important, QB Kessler the best QB in the game, and the Trojans have vastly more firepower on offense.  USC lost to only Top 15 opponents, Waxed Utah and UCLA this season and the new head coach is well liked by his players and USC playing a more physical type of football and also running it.  Wisconsin does not have one quality win, got beat by every good team they played and cannot trade punches on the scoreboard here.

Play 3 Units on USC 

# 249 - Memphis +3

Although a few WR’s out for Memphis here or questionable, prefer to “take” points with Memphis who went into a tailspin after Navy beat them at home, and then lost 2 in a row on the road, one of those a 1 point to Houston who is a conference champ.  They ended the season with a 63-0 whitewashing of SMU.  Yes their head coach is on to VT, but Darrell Dickey takes the reins for this game as head coach and the NFL bound Paxton Lynch at QB is a dam rock star player and will put up points.  Auburn lost DC Muschamp to the South Carolina job and he will not be coaching, and have the worst QB of the two in this game by a longshot.  Also backup Sam White for Auburn at QB is out if needed with injury.  Bear in mind Memphis DESTROYED the SEC’s Ol Miss this season and have the power on offense to score more than an Auburn attack ranked 94th nationally.  Memphis will be motivated, not sure about a 6-6 Auburn team here.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis

BONUS HALF unit play -  #253 Louisville -4.5 (Texas AM starting a JUCO QB because their top 2 QB’s transferred out!) 

North Carolina -3 to 3.5

Not only did Baylor struggle or get beat by every good team they played this season, their injury list is such that I doubt they can muster the type of offense they are known for.  North Carolina was a game away from winning the ACC but ran into a buzz saw in Clemson in the title game but have the weapons on both sides of the ball to put away Baylor here.  Baylor starts a 3rd string QB against a team of this caliber and DC Gene Chizik will be able to dismantle Baylor and QB Williams despite a poor outing stat wise against Clemson will have a huge day here.  Baylor's best RB and WR have both been ruled out and with a 3rd string QB without those stars, no other way to look.

Play 2 Units on North Carolina   

Cincy +4
All the money on Denver here, I am taking the points over the fall numer of 3 herte with a team who is just as good as Denver folks.  9 degrees at kickoff for this one and I expect Cincy to be able to put up some points and make this close.  Both teams playing for a ton on the line here including Cincy getting a first round bye in playoffs.,  The last 2 weeks Denver has failed to score a TD in the second half and while McCarron is the QB for Denver, he has performed well and has plenty of weapons.  Denver just 3-4 last 7 games and they had 12 penalties for 127 yards last week where they got blew out in the second half 21-0 against the Steelers.
Play 1 Unit on Cincy
Same Game Tease - FULL UNIT - Tease Cincy to +10 and the Total TEASE UP to 46 and take the Under. 

Central Michigan +4.5
Minnesota is a 5-7 team with little offense to counter the Chippewa's passing game despite having a good pass defense.  Minny lost to every good team they played this year and this game is in their home state, in the Lions stadium under the dome and they have the best QB in this game in Cooper Rush who threw for over 3700 yards this year.
Play 1 Unit on Cent. Michigan 

NY Giants +7

Moved through 6 to 7 on the line.  NY has the better QB and this line a over reaction to Odell Beckam being out in this game.  Minny does not have the weapons to expose a weak NY Giant secondary and Petersen not 100% for this game either.  NY has rallied in their last 2 games and almost beat the Panthers last week, as Tom Couglin coached teams never throw it in folks.  NY in a must win with Skins winning last night, Minny over rated.

Play 1 Unit on the G Men - NY Giants 

Green Bay +4.5
Good number to grab Aaron Rodgers and a determined Packers bunch trying to win a division against a team who is already a division champ and trying to stay healthy.  It is also noted Carson Palmer has a bad finger issue and may not play the entire game.  Green Bay needs it, Zona does not and Green Bays running attack back in sync and they provide a much stiffer challenge than the hapless Eagles. 
Play 1 Unit on Green Bay 

2 Team 6 Point Teaser - 1 Unit.  Tease Green Bay to +10 and Tease the NY Jets to +9.5

Dallas +6
What is Buffalo doing laying 6 to anyone.  QB Moore from Boise St is a BETTER Option than Matt Cassel, and Dallas has the running game going.  Buffalo dejected after getting eliminated from her playoffs last week and are in a slide here, Dallas has the better talent overall and this is a huge number.  Word is also there is much locker dissention on the Bills side.
Play 1 Unit on Dallas

Nebraska +6.5  (Wait for this to go to 7 or more – at least wait till Saturday to bet it)

There will be no love for 5-7 Nebraska here in Vegas or offshore, all UCLA money and the line will rise.  The Huskers the only team in the nation to beat Michigan State, they lost 4 games by a total of 6 points and all 4 of them in the last play of the game.  UCLA deflated to be here and although in California, Huskers travel well and have something to prove.  Most 4th year and 5th years seniors from NU remember well losing 2 in a row to UCLA in 2012 and 2013, and vow redemption and Nebraska will not lay down in this one and remember their last game was a loss to mighty Iowa by 8 and they gave them the ball 5 times!  Huskers cover and could win outright.

Play 1 Unit on Nebraska 

Tulsa +13.5 to 14

VT cannot put anyone away by 2 TDs in my opinion and I really think this game will be lower scoring which brings points into the fray here bug time.  VT is very hit and miss on offense and do not possess an explosive offense and while the Hokies will want to send coaching legend Frank Beamer out with a win, it will not come easy.  Hurricanes and the points.  QB Evans for Tulsa best QB in the game and the best offense as well which should keep them in this and this is much closer to Tulsa than VT so I expect a good fan base for them as well.

Play 1 Unit on Tulsa

Indiana -2

Nate Sudfeld led the Big 10 in passing, TD’s and passing efficiency , and RB Pig Howard is the best player on the field, both for the Hoosiers.  Remember Indiana played BOTH Michigan and Ohio St and lost to both by only a TD each and they have the players and coaching to put up 45 points in this game, as they are under the radar.  Duke lost to ANYONE who was good all year and their QB Sirk is overrated.  Love Indiana here – Sleeper pick of the season in my opinion.  Duke is terrible in bowl games and Indiana jacked up to be here big time.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana

Temple -2.5

All over the Owls here.  Their defense allowing 12 ppg away from home this year will be the difference.  Toledo started out just like Temple this year, like a house of fire but stumbled down the stretch however Temple retained their head coach and Toledo’s head coach bolted for the Iowa St job and there is more stability at Temple under a very good head coach, a better defense and a better class of player for the owls who lost the ACC Championship game to Houston but held the Cougs to 24 points which is no easy feat, the Owl defense the KEY in this game bar none.

Play 1 Unit on Temple

New Orleans -2.5

Nothing to play for here, but Drew Brees at home and an inept Lions offense is a mis match gents, plain and simple.  The Lions and the Saints defenses are BOTH DEPLORABLE and both QB’s should find success through the air and the running game should work for both, however the Lions have averaged a paltry 17 ppg on offense on the road this season and New Orleans scores 31 ppg at home this season and remember 2 weeks ago lit up Carolina’s vaunted defense like a Christmas Tree in a game they could have won.  Brees is better than Stafford and the overall offense of the Saints is better the Lions, they are at home which is worth 3 points and Brees has been exception on NFL over the years racking up 47—yards on MNF and remember the Lions are on back to back roadies and lost to the lowly Rams last week on the road in a dome, and the Saints coaching staff is vastly better than the Lions as well.

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans 

South Florida +2.5

Love the Bulls here.  Willie Taggert the Bulls head coach had his jersey retired AS A HILLTOOPER and was a coach there as well, and faces his old program with a great dual threat QB in Quinton Flowers who is a one man wrecking crew.  Western Kentucky a good program but the strength of schedule is going to show up in this one, and as good as Western Kentucky looked beating Southern Miss in their championship game, this game is in Miami so that is a home field for South Florida , and the Bulls came on strong at seasons end and they beat numerous Bowl teams including Cincy, Temple and U Conn.  The Bulls also played well against Navy and Memphis and could have won both games.  It boils down to experience, home field, the better coach and the better QB and that all favors South Florida.

Play 1 Unit on South Florida.

Steelers -6.5

Yes I am laying it here gents, Pitts offense has eclipsed 30 ppg their last 5 games and Denver secondary is all banged up, and Ben Ben is on fire, and who will cover Antonio Brown.  The Steelers are peaking and need this win big time and in a surprise, I think this might be one of the bigger blowouts of the day.  Denver ran the ball for 35 yards last week on 21 carries and have had serious issues scoring TDs. They have had 1 in the last 2 weeks.  Back to back roadies for Denver as well.  They will be calling for Peyton Manning after this one, and he did practice this week. Might make a great tease play as well. 

Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh

Green Bay -3

We get a soft line here, and NO this is not a square bet.  The Raiders allow a ton of yards after the catch and Green Bay is very good at getting added yards after the catch, and also we have an Eddie Lacey sighting, as he came out like a beast last week in a romp over Dallas.   Bear in mind although the line is at -3 because the Raiders upset Denver last week, Denvers backup QB went 35 out of 51, Denver justy could not covert yards into scores, and that will not be the case for Green Bay.  Aaron Rodgers returns to the Bay area where he is fromn and will want to impress, Green Bay vastly better in all areas and played a better brand of defense last week.  Oakland is better than previous editions under Del Rio, but they are not good enough to beat two winning teams in back to back fashion.  Carr also has been throwing picks lately.  Oddsmakers left a soft line here – PERIOD – Green Bay gets good this time of year if you have not noticed in the past few years.

Play 2 Units on Green Bay – TOP PLAY

Bears +6

Yep – Ugly but Minny missing 4 starters on defense and their offense has failed to top 20 points in either of their last 4 games and they are fading.  Good Cutler or Bad Cutler, but I feel after last weeks debacle Cutler will have a good outing against a defense that should allow the Bears 17-21 points here and while Minny will pound the rock with AD and eat some clock, a lower scoring game with big points is a take, and Bears are capable here, and have a 1-2 punch at RB and the best QB and WR on the field. Line moved up from 5.5 to 6 – a key number.

Play 1 Unit on the Bears

BONUS – 1 Unit 2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Kansas City DOWN to -1 and Tease Seattle Down to -9

Georgia State +3

GSU throws the ball as well as anyone in the nation and they take on 5 win San Jose State who stunk it up down the stretch.  Georgia State STUNNED a very good Georgia Southern Team to end the season with a monster win and come in here with a high octane attack through the air and a defense that has improved vastly this season and their QB Arbuckle has over 4100 yards passing and ranked 6th in the NCAA this season.  GSU won all four of their last 4 games by double digits.  Not sold on San Jose who lost to Oregon State by 21 and had some ugly losses.  They do run the ball decent and have a balanced attack but have not had a pass play over 50 yards all year and cannot trade punches on the scoreboard here despite have a good pass defense.

Play 1 Unit on Georgia State

Appalachian State  -7.5

ASU has a HUGE edge on defense, I  mean a HUGE edge and Ohio U, despite being coached by ex-Husker coach Solich, has MAJOR issues on offense and while they get back their QB and RB off injury here, not sold on them against one of the better defenses around.  ASU 10-2 and 7-1 in the Sun Belt Conference and this is their first bowl game ever as a program and they will be fired up to the moon and back, Ohio no doubt has bowl experience behind Solich but I have watched the Mountaineers play twice this season and they are a good team and a BAD matchup for Ohio U, and bear in mind one of their losses was to Clemson.  Better defense, more enthusiasm – I will lay it, doubt the Bobcats can muster 17 points in this game, if that.

Play 1 Unit on Appalachian State  

BYU +2.5

Let’s face it, BYU is being coached by Mendenhall for the last time and a charged up and emotional BYU team is VASTLY more healthy than Utah, without their top playmaker and stud RB Decker, they also are missing their best special team returner and game breaker, as well as  their best WR Covey, and their starting TE and they dropped 2 out of their last 3 games.  BYU had a very rough opening 5 games and competed in every one of them including a season opening win at Nebraska despite losing their top QB for the season in that game.  BYU won 7 out of their last 8 games and the defense is better than you think and they can put it up through the air.  This game is sold out and both teams fans will be well represented.  Too many injuries to skill people on offense for Utah who has no identity with RB Decker out. BYU has a huge emotional edge and how motivated is Utah to be here? 

Play 1 Unit on BYU