New England -3

I cannot fade Brady and Belichick in this game (Bill’s 36th post season game he has coached), simply no way around it. Might be square but I am going with experience and one of the best QB’s ever to play the game.   21 Players on New England roster have played in a Super Bowl.  Atlanta is loaded on offense, but then again so were the Steelers and Big Ben and company were rendered useless for the most part against the Pats defense.  Atlanta faces the #1 scoring defense in the NFL and while I respect, and as a matter of fact have mad respect, for Matty Ice and his weapons, especially Julio Jones who will have his numbers.   

I simply cannot discount Tom Brady’s ability to pick apart zone defenses and the fact Atlanta’s defense has not faced a team like this all year.  I have no doubt Atlanta will compete, their head coach has coached as a coordinator in 3 Super Bowls and won one (coached against Brady too) , however Matt Ryan under pressure at times falls apart, and while we have not seen him too many times this year self-destruct, he can happen and I think the Pats defense and their pass rush will put enough heat on him and he will not have the time allowed to throw the ball and make plays like he did against a very weak Green Bay defense which should frustrate him.  At days end the Pats the better team and I do not see a scenario unless they turn it over like crazy, that Atlanta with their A Game can beat this team.  Turnovers will be key, but Brady has been careful with the ball all year, and the Pats know you cannot give Atlanta added possessions and beat them, no one can because they are a quick strike offense.  The Pats were 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS on the road this season.  Atlanta was 6-2 SU. FACTS -  Better coach, better QB and Better defense, more experience all on the side of the Pats – Makes sense to me, as all that is handicapping 101.

Play 1 Unit on the New England Patriots

BONUS PLAY – Half Unit to 1 Unit – UNDER 59.  Might want to wait on this as it is climbing and may approach 60 by Game time. That is almost 10 TDs to be scored to cover this without the extra points.  No doubt 2 prolific offenses, but the Pats will dink and dunk it and eat clock to keep Ryan and company off the field, and Atlanta may find difficulty scoring in the red zone against the Pats.  Contrarian play but I feel the sharp side on the total.  Nothing comes easy in this game.       

SAME GAME 2 TEAM 6 POINTS TEASER - SIDE AND TOTAL  - POINTS ADDED -  Tease Falcons UP to +9 and Tease Total UP to 65 and take the UNDER - Half Unit.   

BONUS Prop Bets

All Half Unit unless otherwise stated – Off of the Westgate in Las Vegas Prop Sheet – Your moneyline numbers may be slightly different, however these are common props at every outlet I checked.  I will have personally bet every one of these in Vegas for Super Bowl Sunday. 

Will there be a safety – YES +600 (I post this because of the huge payout, put $50 on it and both QB’s if on the 1 or 2 yard line will likely be trying to throw it out of there based on their offense, so it gives this a small chance but worth the stretch as a longshot)

Total Interceptions by BOTH teams OVER 1.5 (-135)

Total TD Passes by Tom Brady OVER 2.5 (even money) 1 UNIT PLAY

Longest Rush by Matt Ryan – OVER 6.5 yards (-110)

Will Matt Ryan throw a TD pass in the First Quarter – YES (-110)

Longest Reception by Julio Jones - OVER 25.5 yards (-110) 1 UNIT PLAY

Total TDs by BOTH TEAMS – Over 6.5 (-150)

Will either team make a field goal in the 1st Quarter – YES (-120)   

First reception by Julian Edelman -  UNDER 9.5 yards – ( -110) 

Dallas -4 to 4.5      *4:40 EST Kick 

Dallas is a complete team.  Good running game, the Best OL in football, QB Prescott is damn good, multiple weapons at WR and they have a defense that is going make the one dimensional offense of Green Bay earn every yard and point.  You cannot win this late in the season with little or no running game, proven fact and Green Bay has none. Green Bay has been on a tear but running up wins in their crappy division with the Lions, Bears and Vikings has not impressed me.  Their best WR Nelson is out for the game, their secondary is so/so and their defense is below average and Dallas have already manhandled the Packers on the road this year.  Add in the fact the Giants imploded last week against Green Bay in a game they were dominating, dropped passes for TD's, giving up a hail Mary, turnovers, and again I am not impressed although we all agree Rodgers is hot and dangerous, you cannot beat Dallas at home who has rest with a make shift passing attack no matter who is QB.  Dallas is poised for a Super Bowl this year guys, got to ride them here, as Green Bays demerits catch up o them here.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas.....BONUS opinion on the OVER in this game, there will be some scoring.

2 team 6 Point Teaser - 1 Unit - Points Added.  Tease Dallas to +1.5  and tease the Steelers to +7 against KC.  

#301 - Seattle +5  *4:35 EST

When looking at Atlanta ask yourself a question, who have they played?  The last good team Atlanta played was Kansas City 5 weeks ago and they lost at home.  Think about it.  Their defense stinks, but their offense is a rock star.  They have wins over Tampa, New Orleans, LA Rams, San Fran, Carolina, Lost to Philly who sucks, and lost to San Diego in here as well – just some of their last 10 games.  Seattle is battle tested with a tougher schedule, and also beat the Pats on the road this year, and quite frankly they are doing what beats up the Dirty Birds, playing good defense and pounding the rock.

Play 1 Unit on Seattle

#151 - Clemson +6.5 to 7   *8 EST January 9, 2017 

Revenge is not something to take lightly. Clemson was the better team last year and lost a tight one.   Clemson has the best player on the field in QB Watson.  His is countered with a true freshman who just lost his mentor when Kiffen was fired. Clemson is the only team in America that can test the Tide defense, and trust me, it is a good one without question.  Losing Kiffen is a small hit at OC, but Alabama has time to adjust and his replacement is no stranger to the players, so I am not putting a ton of stock into that.  Bottom Line - The ACC all Bowl season for the most part kicked ass and impressed and the SEC was a joke – Alabama had a patsy schedule based on who they played and how those teams fared in bowl games.  You have the best player in college football at QB in my opinion, not LaMar Jackson, and that is Watson for Clemson with speed at RB to attack the edges and they have receivers that will test the secondary with success and the Tiger OL can manage the DL of Alabama.  A mobile QB with all these weapons’ and a great OL is not something the Tide have seen all year.  Yes Clemson was in some tight games this year, but in my opinion they were bored and complacent in many of those simply because they knew they were better, and in big spots they stepped up.  They are not intimidated by Alabama, many other teams were.  Clemson has the moxie and talent to win this game, and I will gladly the points.

Play 1 Unit on Clemson

Thanks you for all your College Ball Business this season.  I have had better years but finished strong.  Thanks – TG

#106 - Steelers -10   *1:05 EST

Bear in mind most teams that win in the playoffs, also cover the spread.  While 10 points looks like a lot of points, and it is, Pittsburgh should destroy Miami.  Miami has won with smoke and mirrors all year, and frankly in 8 of their wins, it could have gone either way.  The Fish let Carson Palmer look like Joe Montana when they played them, they should have lost to the Browns, the list goes on and on, and frankly they are one the worst 10 win teams I have seen in years.  The Steelers are a peak performance, avenging a 15 loss to the Dolphins, and bear in mind Big Ben went down to injury in that game, and Pittsburgh is playing the best football of anyone perhaps outside of Atlanta right now, and have weapons all over the place on offense.  At home is worth 4 points in this game, cold weather and a team from South Beach with a career second string QB pulling the strings.

Play 2 Units on Pittsburgh

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added) – Tease Steelers DOWN to -4 and Tease the NY Giants UP to +10.5 for 1 Unit.  

#101 - Oakland +3.5 to 4    *4:35 EST Saturday 

Leave them for dead on the roadside without QB Carr huh?  Conner Cook has to start, oh well, they are done. Not so fast.   They might be done after this game, but they are a live dog here in my opinion.  Oakland has a mammoth OL, a stud RB and two of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL at WR, and they are better than the Texans.  Already beat them this year.  Last year in the post season Kansas City shut out Houston in this same game and blew them away in here.  Oswiller at QB is average at best to flat out bad at times, he was benched for a guy that was 3rd string last year!  Houston’s defense will contain a pedestrian Houston attack on offense who tried to beat Tennessee last week leaving starters in through the 4th quarter and still could not win, and that was Matt Cassel pulling the strings for the Titans in that one.  Whole world on Houston here, not me. Del Rio has all week for Cook to get coached up.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added) – Half a Unit – Tease Oakland to +9.5 to 10 and Tease Seattle down to -2

#280 - Penn State +7 to 8     * 5 EST

This line is jumping up, and after I have watched every bowl game, I have come to the conclusion that 2 conferences were over rated this year big time, the SEC and the PAC 12.  The PAC 12 runner up got beat by 30 by Okie State and they have not looked good in any bowl game outside of Stanford playing an average North Carolina team.  That said USC was the talk of the town and many broadcasters winning 6 straight with a new QB, Sam Darnold, who is a freshman with tons of promise and upside and no doubt he will play well here, but bottom line USC beat only 2 bowl teams out of the dismal PAC 12 in that 6 game run.  Penn State on the other hand won the Big 10 Championship against a good Wisconsin team and managed  38 points in the title game against a great Badger defense, and that tells me QB McSorley and company for PSU can put points up here against a USC defense that is not as good as many Penn State has faced this year.  The Lions are an unreal on defense away from home allowing 18 ppg, and they average more points on offense than USC,  and quite frankly have the better coach and are playing the no respect card here and feel slighted they were left out of the final 4 as a conference champion and want to prove something.  I think RB Barkley makes play action passing for Penn State click, they balance the offense more, and play physical and make this a hell of a game and can stay within the number and possibly win it SU.

Play 1 Unit on Penn State

BONUS PLAY Half Unit - Oklahoma -2.5 (Again the SEC is overrated outside of Alabama - No doubt OU has the best QB in the game, the best RB in the game, and while OU coach Bob Stoops is hit or miss in big games as a coach, OU has too many weapons on offense for Auburn to trade punches with).  

#321 - New Orleans Saints +7

Atlanta has a 1st round bye on the line here and Drew Brees and company plan to spoil their rivals celebration if need be.  The Saints are 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a dog, they are #1 in total offense and #1 in total passing offense and while the Dirty Birds are the better team and on a roll and I have cashed them a few times in the past 3 weeks, I like this one to NOT come easy for them and for New Orleans to put up a fight for pride here.

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans

#304 - New York Jets +3.5

What are the Bills doing laying a number to anyone?  Rex and Rob are gone, their starting QB is benched for financial reasons, the team is a circus right now and NEW is no bargain, but in a battle of 2 bad teams, I will always grab the points- and NY announced they are retaining their head coach and I think they will play harder.

Play 1 Unit on the Jets

#274 - Clemson +3  *7EST

Look Ohio State has a better head coach.  All that Venables staff (DC for Clemson) has to do is look at the Michigan game tape to see how the Wolverines shut OSU down, and QB Barrett is not a thrower and OSU simply cannot trade punches on the scoreboard.  Clemson is loaded with speed, well coached, Watson is the best player on the field and while OSU is battle tested, their inexperience finally rears its ugly head here.  Clemson has big play capability, and have waited all year, sometimes with complacency to rematch against Bama.  OSU is not even a conference champ and if Penn State can beat them, Clemson surely can and will with a fully healthy team including RB Gallman.

Play 1 Unit on Clemson

#272 - Alabama -14 *3 est 

Dropped from 16, do not think it matters.  Alabama has the best defense I have ever seen in CFB and that includes the 1995 Nebraska team.  Washington went through a weak PAC 12 conference, struggled against Utah’s defense which is a shell of Alabama’s at best and they struggled against USC who has athletes, but still not of Bama’s caliber.  Saban will be all business and while I respect Petersen’s talent as a coach, this is not the upset job he did on Oklahoma at Boise, this is the best team in the land, close to home and loaded at every skill position they have.  Bama pulls away late

Play 1 Unit on Alabama

#267 - LSU -3   *11AM EST

3 things at play here.  The Heisman curse, SEC team versus a lower tier school, and whenever Louisville came up against anyone outside of Florida State this year who was a good team they lost, including to SEC Kentucky of all people.  Louisville does not match up well against physical teams and despite QB Jackson's ability, LSU has too much in the tank and their running game will take it right to the Cards.  Remember a fading Houston team destroyed the Cards this season, and RB Guice ran for 8 yards a carry in the SEC!  Also remember that LSU was the ONLY team in America this season to make Alabama sweat and with a new head coach who the players love, LSU should roll here with a more physical team and old school smash mouth running right at them.

Play 1 Unit on LSU 

#264 - Tennessee -4   * Dec. 30 at 3:30 EST 

Nebraska is down their best offensive play making weapon with WR Jordan Westerkamp, and now their best play making defensive player (leading tackler and team co-captain and All an Big 10 DB) in Nate Gerry who has been suspended for this game because of grades.  It is also rumored that QB Tommy Armstrong if very iffy, and less than a 20% chance he plays because of a torn hamstring for this game and trust me, Nebraska’s backup could not start for any school in of the Top 5 conferences in the country.  Mike Riley is a horrible coach, and frankly any team they faced that was ranked, Nebraska got waxed including a season ending blowout loss to an average Iowa team by 30 points.  Ohio State beat Nebraska by 59 points gents.  Tennessee is loaded and their speed, coaching, and QB Dobbs will absolutely destroy Nebraska who has no offensive firepower to counter punch what Dobbs and company will do on the scoreboard against a bad defense who cannot defend the read option, dual threat attack Tennessee has.  Nebraska’s 3 best players out and 70% of their offense out.  Need I say more, and remember I graduated from Nebraska, and am a Husker and follow this program as close as anyone in the business. They are in big trouble here and this could be very embarrassing.

Play 3 Units on Tennessee 

#253 – Arkansas +7   *5:30 EST

VT is a common spot, laying a big number after losing a title game.  How motivated are they for this, and how do they fare against a big and physical Arkansas Team who will pound the rock.  Arkansas off an embarrassing loss to a horrific Missouri team in their season finale, where they dominated an entire half, blew a huge lead and lost.  VT has issues giving up big plays and they also have some ugly losses like Syracuse for instance and they are inconsistent.  I think this is a rough and tumble, physical and lower scoring game, I will grab the points.  Dogs are covering like crazy and this pone here could win outright.

Play 1 Unit on Arkansas

#247 - Indiana +5.5 to +6  *830 EST 

We saw what the Big 10 did last night to one of the PAC 12's elite, and Utah is a PAC 12 team who slide down the ladder in 3 of their last 4 games and got beat by anyone good, and also lost to a horrific Oregon team.  Indiana did lose their head coach but worked their ass off to get to a bowl and are excited and motivated to play this game.  Every sharp I know in Vegas including some max bets are on Indiana in this game and while we lost a point or point and half on a line drop because of the sharp move, I think Indiana wins this outright.  They gave Michigan , Ohio State, Nebraska and Penn State all they wanted this year in case you do not follow the Big 10 like I do.  Utah barely beat Oregon State and UCLA this year, and struggled in big games.  

Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

#239 - Washington State -9.5 to 10   * 7 EST 

Total mis - match on paper and this was going to be a huge play of mine this season at -6, but with suspensions and upheaval at Minny with the players protesting and ect and the line raise, I am singling this out as a 1 Unit Best bet. Line dropped to 9.5 in many places.  Look Minny players going through the motions, limited practiced as they protested this bowl at one point, and fragile emotions and egos for the Gopher players and if they get smacked in the mouth early, they do not the QB or the offense to play from behind.  Rough and tough Big 10 foe here who did not have 1 big win all year and Leach and his first [pick in the draft at player at QB, who wants to put on as show. Falk at QB is 71% in completion rate and over 4000 yards and one thing about Mike Leach, if he sees a weakness, he exploits it and drops the hammer, and will pile it on and let his start QB rack up he yards. Yeah Minny 23rd in defense in the NCAA, but Big 10 foes are different animal that a pass happy go for broke type offense that is quick paced.

Play 1 Unit on Washington State

BONUS PLAY:  Baylor +7.5 – Believe it or not Baylor running will keep them around here.  HALF UNIT 

Detroit +6.5

Not sold on Dallas being "All in" in this game as they have been assured home field in the playoffs and are division champs with NY losing at Philly Thursday.  They are looking to get to the post season healthy.  That said they wont lay down either, but Detroit in the playoff fight and this is a must win for them.  No doubt they are not the best team here but Stafford has had time to rest his finger, and they will expose a Dallas secondary here and put some points up.  Detroit has had only 2 losses in 10 games, both to playoff teams and 1 of those losses was to the Giants whom beat the Boys twice.  These 2 have played 3 times since 2011 and none of those games were further than 4 points apart.  I think Detroit shows up here and they also have plenty of play-makers.  Stafford and company should keep this close, Detroit is a feisty team.  

Play 1 Unit on Detroit.  

#233 - Vandy +5.5 to 6   *5 EST - Monday 26th 

Vandy has the better defense and no doubt Tested in battle out of the SEC.  Not sold on NC State and one of their wins was a fluke in a hurricane type setting against Notre Dame in their house. The Vandy offense scored 83 points in their last 2 games and have a banging RB in Webb.  NC State ended the season with an upset of big brother North Carolina but struggled in ACC play in mid season.  They play good teams tough no doubt, but laying 5.5 to 6 with them is risky.  Both teams will run the ball, and points will be at a premium here, I will take the better defense and coach in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Vandy.  

Ravens +5.5

Not sold on Pitt and Ravens better than advertised.,  Yeah they spanked them earlier with Big Ben not 100% but this defense will give Bell issues and Big Ben issues.  This is always a knock down drag out game, nothing comes easy for this division crown.  You can stat this to death, trend it to death, it is Pitt and Baltimore in a dogfight, points at a premium.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore.

2 Team 6 Point Teaser - Tease the Ravens up to +11 and Tease Denver to +9 - 1 Unit 

Buffalo -4

This line will drop by Saturday in my estimation, but it stinks to high heaven.  Rex Ryan playing for his job here or at least pride and QB Moore is not playing the deplorable jets this week.  Back to back roadies for the Fish, Buffalo McCoy is quietly having a hell of a year and I expect the Bills to pull out all the stops here and for Miami to get exposed.  I cannot trust them against this defense and Miami has always struggled in this stadium at 2-9 SU.   With experience when I see a line too good to be true, I fade it.

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo

2 team 6 Point Teaser - 1 Unit - Points Added - tease Green Bay down to -1 and tease Tampa Bay up to +9. 

Redskins -3

Yeah I am taking a team who liked dog crap on Monday but with the playoff hunt in their sites with little hope, so the pressure is off and I think they play loose and I expect this to be a double digit win.  You heard it here first.  Chicago blew their wad against Green Bay in an epic effort last week and RB Howard has impressed, but I expect this Skins offense to pull out every stop against a Bears defense that is suspect to big plays and Reed should have a big day.

Play 1 Unit on the Redskins

Atlanta -3

Short week for Panthers and they are not playing a Redskins team whose offense is hit and miss, Atlanta is a machine on offense, balanced offense and playing better defense than u may think.  Atlanta racked up a whopping  48 points against the Panthers when their defense was healthy in October.  Dirty Birds with weapons all over the place despite Jones absence, and Ryan on fire, and this is a short number for a better team and Carolina off a short week and Newton banged up.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

#226 - Troy -4   *8 EST - Friday December 23

Lost a half point of value here, but still worth a 1 Unit position.  The speed of Troy is going to give Ohio U, coached by Frank Solich, some issues big time.  Troy is also playing basically in their backyard in this one in Alabama where they are located.  Troy gave Clemson earlier this year all they wanted and beat some very good teams.  Troys defense ranked 33rd overall in the NCAA and they stuff the run, which Solich likes to do, they rank 22nd in points allowed.  More team speed and talent with an offense averaging 426 yards per game against a MAC team who had issues all year with good offenses and speed.

Play 1 Unit on Troy 

#222- ODU -4  * NOTE 1 PM EST Kickoff 

MAC teams are a bad bet in the bowls. Around 32% since 2012.  You saw Central Michigan get waxed against Tulsa already.  The MAC simply does not have the firepower to trade punches against high octane teams, and the speed of ODU is big factor here as well.  All ODU wins by double digits this year and they are 9-3 on the year, that is impressive and Washington at QB has 28 TD passes and only 4 picks.  Simply too much for EMU to contend with.  EMU has a good QB in Roback and he can put up some numbers, but ODU is a better team and at least a TD better here.

Play 1 Unit on Old Dominion 

#101 -Giants -1.5   *8:25 EST 

Line dropping like a rock, GOOD.  This is off of 3.  Usually Thursday Night road teams are a fade but Philly and Carson Wentz are not going to get it done here against this defense of NY which is no joke.  Manning the better QB in this game, better defense and better coach and now a line off a fall number.

Play 1 Unit on NY Giants 

Wyoming +10 to 11

The Cowboys are a better than advertised team this season, I saw them play Nebraska in person this season and that score was skewed as Wyoming was within 7 points with 10 minutes left before they imploded with turnovers, and they beat SDU by 1 and lost by 3 2 weeks later in the MW Championship game.  BYU is without their leader and key playmaker QB Hill, as he is hurt yet once again.  While the BYU offense will score against the Cowboy defense, their offense can trade punches on the scoreboard and keep this within the number.  Craig Bohl, ex-Nebraska defensive coordinator is a good head coach and the moment will not be too big for his team here.

Play 1 Unit on Wyoming 

#216- Western Kentucky -6.5 to 7   *7 EST 

Not sold on Memphis’s big win against Houston, as we all saw Houston fade down the stretch big time and get waxed in a bowl game.  Memphis is in a weak conference and they simply cannot counter punch against Western Kentucky’s offense which is simply a scoring machine.  WKU has edges in all key categories’, Offense, Points, Yards gained, yards allowed, and I like their 517 yards per game against a defense that cannot stop anyone allowing over 440 yards a game.

Play 1 Unit on Western Kentucky  

#325 - New England -3

Expect Brady and Bellichek to have a game plan for Denver's defense, who is very suspect to the run, and I see the Pats pounding the rock in this game to set up play action pass with consistent success.  New England is the best team in the NFL bar none and play well in big games.  Denver is an above average team with no running game at all and a 2nd year QB at the helm that is not 100%.  Denver tough at home, but the Pats are hot, Brady does not turn it over and I would not be surprised to see WR Floyd make a debut here. Pats lost in OT in here last year and are in revenge mode, and no Manning at QB for the Bronco's this year! Public bet no doubt, but I think the Pats roll them in here by double digits. 

Play 1 Unit on New England

#317 - Tennessee +5.5 

Look Kansas City is a good team, but overrated and I live in KC.  they get it done with defense and special teams, their offense is pedestrian at best.  The temps in this game at going to be around 8 degrees Sunday and that will have an affect.  Also with KC losing Derrick Johnson at LB, their #1 tackler on the team, they are VERY vulnerable to the run, and DeMarco Murray will get at least 25 touches Sunday and he will get his yards.  Mobile QB Mariota may also be an issue for KC.  This is a 3 point game one way or the other and no doubt low scoring.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee

#329 - Pittsburgh -3

Square bet yes, but Cincy is done folks and the Steelers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games in December, because they know when to turn it on.  Big Ben tossed 3 TD's in the first game and none to WR Brown, and right now RB Bell is unstoppable.  Andy Dalton is without weapons on offense and the Steelers are in a dogfight with the Ravens for the Playoffs and this division and they know the Ravens have a high chance of beating Philly this weekend so they will be ready for this one.  The Bengals always play Pitt tough no doubt, but they are limited on offense and their OL is suspect.

Play 1 Unit on Steelers 

Miami -2.5 (NFL)

While QB Matt Moore gets the start, I will take him over Bryce Petty any day of the week, he is a veteran QB with starts under his belt.  If this line was over 3.5 or higher I would take the Jets in what should be a low scoring game, but QB Petty without Forte and Marshall at his disposal in this game and Miami playing lights out for a Playoff berth, I cannot fade them in this spot.  Weather is supposed to be 40 degrees and raining, and Miami just ruins the ball better, and despite a come from behind 17-3 halftime deficit win for the Jets at the hapless 49ers last week, I am taking the Fish to cover the number.

Play 1 Unit on Miami      

Houston -3.5

Well let’s win one for the new gipper (Major Applewhite, previously offensive coordinator here, steps up) here as Houston’s Herman left for Texas.  Lest we forget this team destroyed Oklahoma to open the season and they also pounded Louisville late in the year and a lot of hits and misses during the year.  Applewhite was calling all the plays so no drop off on offense. Ward is a Stud at QB and will want to make a big splash in his last game, and no Mountain West QB SDSU has played compares to his talents, and SDSU while a good team, steps up way in class here and despite Rocky Long being a solid head coach, Houston has way too many weapons on offense and should be able to contain the Aztec run attack with the nation’s 3rd ranked rush defense allowing less than 98 yards per game on the ground.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

Ravens +6.5

No Gronk is gonna hurt this offense.  Speak of the offense of the Pats, the Ravens have the overall #1 defense in the NFL and most important the #1 scoring defense as well.  Flacco off his best game of the year, and the Ravens in a dogfight for the Playoffs and will be dialed in like none other tonight.  Cold weather will hold the score down in my opinion and with fact New England has to redesign the offense and cannot use Gronk as a weapon in the red zone or use him as decoy, it makes them human, and the Raven defense will get after Brady and a sore knee tonight and make this a game.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore

BONUS Teaser Half Unit / Same Game - 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added)  - Tease Ravens to +12.5 and tease the Total UP to 51 and take the Under.   

#129 - Atlanta –6

The Rams suck, their offense pathetic, and Atlanta grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory last week against a surging KC team, and I can assure you this game has their full attention with Tampa catching heat and challenging for the division, I expect an all out QB Ryan aerial assault on the Rams this week.  Rams have thrown it in, Atlanta has a ton to play for.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

#109 - Houston +6.5

Sharps all over this one in Vegas and I agree, without the Andrew Luck factor, quite frankly the Colts are a below average team.  Not sold on a blowout of the Jets because the jets have NO QB at all, (I was all over Indy on MNF), but the defense of the Texans should provide issues and quite frankly Indy should not belaying 6 to any team at .500 or better, they are just not that good.  All out game for both sides with division lead on the line (3-way tie right now with Tenn.).  Too many points.  Despite Oswillers struggles Houston still has playmakers and their run game should have a good day.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

#119 - Minnesota –3

Jacksonville stinks, their QB is human turnover machine and has MAJOR issues with a good pass rush, and the Jags cannot run the ball.  Minny did not show up last week, and Zimmer was out, and added time to prepare here and still are alive, but have to win games like this and get back in the hunt, and with the Jags being a comedy of errors CONSISTENTLY in every game, and a short number, I will gladly lay it here.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

2 Team 6 Point Teaser 2 Unit TOP TEASER PLAY (points added)  Tease Atlanta down to -1.5 and tease Green Bay up to +9 – 2 Units.    

#123 - Washington -2.5

Look, the Eagles are done, their defense will get shredded by a very underestimated QB Cousins, and the Eagles have injuries all over the place.  The Skins in a playoff hunt and motivated off a bad week last week, I fully expect them to dominate this game start to finish, Eagles offense woeful, QB Wentz throwing picks like crazy as well.  Skins roll

TOP PLAY – Play 2 Units

Army +6

Navy fully healthy would roll in this game.  They are down to 3rd string QB who looked lost against Temple and also down one of their stud RB’s and they are off a devastating loss and a conference title lost all in one game where Temple just beat the hell out of them.  Army has had 3 weeks off to prepare and a long term frustration in not getting over of rival Navy, and with their triple option attack and Navy’s bad defense, who will be on the field more because the offense is in idle with injuries, Army gets the cover and an outright win would not shock me.

Play 1 Unit on Army

KC -3

Disregarding the Thanksgiving games, the home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the Thursday night games for good reason.  2 days of prep and then travel and Oakland off a huge game on Sunday and now travel and the weather is going to be a huge factor, Artic Blast hitting KC (where I live) on Wednesday and Thursday and expect temps below 30 degrees at game time.  KC defense vastly better and know how to shut down the potent Oakland attack, already beat them by 16 in the last game and only laying 3 since Vegas wants split action here.  KC getting it done with WR Hill making huge plays, defense making huge plays, QB Smith taking care of the ball and TE Kelce a 1 man wrecking crew and RB Ware balancing offense.  KC is 20-4 SU their last 24 games and at Arrowhead in this cold, a clear 3 point home field advantage as well.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City  

Colts -1.5

Simply put this is the Colts season.  A Huge game, added rest and prep, and Andrew Luck back in the starting position.  One thing about the Colts, they beat teams they should beat, and lose to ones they should lose to.  A Healthy WR Unit, RB unit and QB for the Colts versus human turnover machine QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and company at the Jets who are a total mess.  Jets 1-4 SU at home and a total mess at QB.  Better QB in this one to get a win and tied for first in their division, Colts will be dialed in.

Play 1 Unit on Indy

BONUS:  Play Half unit on the UNDER 48.5  

Cincy -1

Philly is an injury riddled mess on offense and the have a rookie QB showing his true colors in terms of carrying an offense with an empty arsenal.  While Cincy sucks, their defense shows up every week, and with the home filed, a better QB and better defense the only way to look here.  Cheap number.

Play 1 Unit on Cincinnati

San Fran (PK) 

What the hell is Chicago doing laying a number to anyone, with Barkley at QB?  Did you see Kaepernicks numbers against a decent Miami defense last week.  While San Fran continues to lose, they also continue to play better each week and no one noticing.  Gladly take the points or have it at a pick. 

Play 1 Unit on San Fran

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser- Play 1 Unit (Points Added)  Tease the Steelers Down to a Pick'em and tease Green Bay Down to Pick em...Oh Yeah!    

#334 - Wisconsin -2.5 to 3  *8 EST

Why Wisconsin?  A Tough defense gives Penn State fits.  Look no further than the Michigan game earlier this year, and even though Penn State has some injury issues on defense, they did not on offense in that game.  Wisconsin has that type of defense, a shutdown defense when they bring their “A” game and they will bring it big time against Penn State.  Penn State is not creative on offense and run a straight forward attack, typical Big 10 style offense, and Wisconsin will shut them down.  Wisconsin unsure at QB with Hornibrook because of a concussion and Penn St RB Barkley nursing an ankle injury and not 100%, in big games you take the defense and at a short number under 3 at the time of release, I will side with defense winning a championship. 

Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin

#330 - Wyoming +7 to 7.5   *7:45 EST 

Every sharp in Vegas on the Cowboys for good reason.  They already beat SDSU in here once and I think they do it again, as the Cowboys are undefeated at home this year and this is SDSU’s second trip here in 2 weeks, and those So Cal boys are not fond of cold weather either.  With Wyoming already winning the Mountain West division they are in before a no show in a bad loss at New Mexico, rest assured they will be dialed in for this one.  Head Coach Bohl is not a stranger to big games as he put North Dakota St on the Map and was a DC at Nebraska.    Both teams lost ugly last week, this game lost all interest to many and the line is too high.  Wyoming QB Allen the best QB in the game, and remember Boise St and Air Force as well as SDSU all went down here.  

Play 1 Unit on Wyoming 

#317 - Oklahoma State +11 to 12   *12:30 EST

Bedlam here and anything goes in this one.  The number is high because they play in Norman this time around, but this is for all the marbles in the Big 12 and I expect Okie State to give OU all they want in what should be one of the better games of the day. OU has had issues with the type of attack OSU runs and I expect the Cowboys to put up plenty of points here and stay within the number.  Sharps hit this hard and heavy in Vegas all week driving it down from 13 but getting double digits here is worth a play.

Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma State

#326 - Navy -3   12 Noon EST

Temple is no joke and I respect their spread record, but Navy is rolling and this should be a high scoring game as Navy will allow yards and points with respected Temple ground attack, but the all-around better team is the Middies who have a stud QB who just rolled SMU last week racking up more than 70 points and QB Worth for Navy the real deal, throwing for over a 100 yards and running for over a 100 yards in each of his last 3 games.  Temple could not stop triple option of Army earlier this year and allowed over 300 yards rushing, expect Navy who is better than Army to exceed that and throw in some big play pass plays and win by a TD + in this one. Navy can have lots of ball control here and clock eating with the 2nd ranked rush offense in the NCAA.  Middies 24-2 at home SU…unreal!  

Play 1 Unit on Navy

Dallas -3

Hate taking road teams on Thursday Night but the Vikings offense is woeful and their vaunted defense is suspect against good run teams.  Dallas’s success on offense is well documented, however while the Zek and Dak show grabs all the headlines, it is the offensive line and their ability to dominate the trenches that is key, and they flat out wear defenses down, especially late.  Having 3 huge threats at WR with Beasley, Bryant and Whitten makes them the best offense in football because most team cannot cover in man coverage to stop the run.  I do not see a shootout here but a rough and tuff tumble type game, and with the news that head coach Zimmer is out, who basically runs the defense and is a fiery head coach, and a good one, not sure of the chain of command in this game is going to be good for Minny.  Dallas has 10 days off before their next game so not worried about the Giants on deck after Washington last Sunday.  Short number here for a team on the rise and a consistent one who has lost just 1 spread all year, versus a very inconsistent team who really has struggled trading punches on the scoreboard against good teams. 

Play 1 Unit on Dallas

#258 - Ravens -4

Cincy in free fall, and frankly their offense is horrific lately and now AJ Green and RB Bernard out for the season, Dalton has lost all his weapons and against this DL it will be a long day for fading Cincy.  Cincy's defense is wearing thin, gave up 400+ yards in 3 out of their last 6 games, and with no offense to extend drives, the Ravens and Flacco will wear them down late and pull away.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore

#261 - San Fran +7.5

Miami is off back to back road games where they stayed on the West Coast and yes they are hot, but have you seen the injury report?  2 OL players out, 2 DL players out and a more than a few others banged up.  San Fran has played better the past few weeks, Kaepernick is actually playing well, RB Hyde is back in form and with a beat up Miami team who is not known in any way as a solid home team bet in the NFL, I will grab the points here.

Play 1 Unit on San Fran

#159 - Michigan St +12.5  *3:30 EST

Nothing comes easy and pressure is mounting for Penn State and despite the MSU's bad record this is a decent team that will give you fits.  Battled Michigan and Ohio State with respectability, and I think this one will not come easy for Penn State with a ton on the line here.  PSU may win, but I will grab the points with Sparty here as this IS their bowl game.  Penn State is beat up on the OL and that is a concern here.  

Play 1 Unit on Michigan State

#197 - Navy -7  *3:30 EST

SMU looking for a bowl bid with a win, but Navy offense too powerful and will score at will in this one.  Navy is in AAC title game but I do not see a let down here, SMU off a good effort last week but just do not have the defense to stop the Middies who are red hot, well coached, 16-6 ,ATS their last 22 games.  Navy had over 400 yards rushing against SMU last year!

Play 1 Unit on Navy 

#216 - Ohio State -6.5  *Noon EST 

OK - Much adieu about nothing here in terms of Michigan's over hyped status.  They struggled against Indiana last week for damn near the whole game, lost to a bad Iowa team and had a weak schedule which included almost losing to Wisconsin in the big house.  Urban Meyer loves the big games, coaches well in big games, Michigan with QB issues, and OSU at home here.  I say a 2 TD Win.  OSU pulls away late. 

Ohio State - 1 Unit

#141 - Arizona State - 2.5 to 3  *9:30 EST

Arizona is banged up all over the place, Rich Rod has a team with no defense, and Az State is clearly the better team at numerous positions.  When you get beat by Oregon State 42-17 it is time to re-evaluate, and Rich Rod has so many injuries he is peace milling a team together and the Wildcats were not that good to begin with.  ASU not much better with injuries but have the firepower still on offense to pull away against a team who has scored 17 or fewer in 4 out of their last 5 games.  Unreal.  Arizona 1-10 ATS their last 11!

Play 2 Units on Arizona State - Top Play 

Toledo +9.5

Nothing comes easy this time of year.  Western Michigan undefeated but my power rating is 6 between these two.  If you have not watched the MAC the past few weeks, all games were tight, Ohio U barely beat Akron at home when Akron had a WR start at QB.  It is that time of year where the noose is tight for teams with expectations.  Toledo no joke, and their QB Woodside is a huge stud that can kill you, 40 TD passes against 87 picks and over 3600+ yards with a 70% completion rate.  This will not come easy.  Gladly take the points with a Toledo team with weapons all over the place on offense including an 1100 yard rusher to balance attack and keep WMU defense on their heels, this has backdoor cover all over it.

Play 1 Unit on Toledo

Nebraska +1.5

Iowa is living off 1 win.  North Dakota St beat them in here, Michigan is overrated and Nebraska wants payback from a home loss last year.  Huskers have more offense, more playmakers, and are headed to a bowl game, and Tommy Armstrong, practiced Tuesday and Wednesday, my inside source tells me and clearly even at 90% the best QB on the field.  Huskers are a solid team, and Iowa is a fade at home, just 2-7 ATS their last 9 as Iowa City is not what it used to be.  This is quietly a hated rivalry dating back to Hayden Fry days, neither team likes each other.

Play 1 Unit on Nebraska

Steelers -7.5

Not sold on Colts beating up Tennessee, Luck has never lost to them.  Pitt is on a short week, with travel off a road game, but overall the talent on the roster for the Steelers is flat out better than Indy’s  and Pitt’s offense should shred the Colts defense. No Luck at QB, the line was 3 to open up and Luck worth a TD on the spread, that would mean 10 - now to 7.5, Steelers despite not being as good as past editions should get all over Indy.

Play 1 Unit on the Steelers. 

Detroit -2.5

Take away the 14 points scored by the defense and the special teams and Minny managed 16 points against Arizona in a knockdown, drag out game and now on a short week travel to Detroit.  Advantage Detroit with home field, home cookin, a better QB and better offense, and a way of coming from behind and finding ways to win games.  Cannot bank on Minny beating a bad Zona team as a team who is on the rise after going 0-4 before that game.  Detroit gets it done.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

Oakland -6

I thought long and hard on this one, and did the match.  If you didn't notice Better QB's are winning games this time of the season and Brock Oswiller had 99 yards throwing the ball last week against Jax.  He has been a huge bust.  Derrick Carr has the weapons on offense, is the better QB and the Crabtree - Cooper Connection with a healthy Murray at RB for Oakland is a lethal combination and I do not see Houston being able to stop it or trade punches.  Houston good at running the ball and I expect the raiders to focus on stopping the run big time and force Houston's QB to make plays, and he has failed all year in big spots and that is the difference.  Houston NOT a good road team and Oakland thrives on the road, 5-0 ATS and SU.  Raiders 30+ points last 3 games and well rested and prepared off bye week.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland 

Washington -3

A real sharp side in Vegas all week, and simply put, short and Sweet - Washington has the better running game - the Better defense and they are at home and they are avenging a Playoff loss to the Packers at home last season, and the Skins have has this one circled since last season. Green Bay is exactly what you think they are, and average team at best, fading fast and a very bad defense and an offense that does not click for some reason with little or running game, so teams are teeing off on QB Rodgers.

Play 1 Unit on Washington  

#472 -Seattle -6.5

Carson Wentz and company a giant killer at home but 0-4 ATS and SU on the road.  Bad news rolling into home of the 12th man.  Seattle has had a grueling schedule as of late and that is a slight concern, but the OL is playing tons better for them, QB Wilson out dueled Tom Brady and is more mobile than he was in the first 5 weeks of the season and the vertical game by Seattle is getting better as well.  15-5 ATS at home for the Hawks as well, on the strongest home field int he NFL.  Going against the rookie who has been shaky the past 4 weeks despite a 11 point win versus Atlanta whose defense is suspect, the Seahawks defense at home is not suspect.

Play 1 Unit on Seattle

#460 - Minnesota -2 to 3

Sharp side in Vegas, tons of Pro Bettors on Vikes here according to my source, and why not.  Arizona has been bad all year, struggled to beat the lowly Niners last week, and as you may recall they also stunk it up all preseason.  They are what they are, a below average team.  Vikes offense no juggernaut but their defense at home should give the Cards more than they can handle and shut down RB Johnson as well.  Since September 25th the Cards have beaten San Fran twice and the Jets, their only wins, they tied Seattle.  Not impressed. 

Play 1 Unit on Minny

BONUS TEASERS - Side Play Teaser - (points added) -  Tease Pittsburgh down to -3 and tease Buffalo up to +9.  TOTALS TEASER (points added) - Tease the Colts / Titans Total DOWN to 46.5 and take the OVER and tease the Jags / Lions Total down to 41.5 and take the OVER

#451 - Tennessee +2.5 to 3

Outright dog winner in my opinion.  Titans getting it done BIG last week against fading Packers and Colts simply have no defense to shut down RB Murray.  Andrew Luck has never lost to Tennessee at 10-0 and don't think the Titans do know it.  Tennessee wants the top spot in this division and they have the better team, and while this should be a shootout, I like Tennessee and an improved QB Mariota with a balanced attack and a better defense to prevail.

Play 1 Unit on the Titans

#354 - Colorado St -4.5  *10:15 EST

Love CSU here against Bob Davies New Mexico Lobo’s – Senior Day, winners 7 out of their last 8 games on the ATS scale and I like them here against a PERCEIVED good Lobo team who won 5 straight but all against bad teams, weak sisters, whatever you want to call them.  This is senior day, and this win is for a bowl Bowl Game and Mike Bobo is a good coach and has the Rams rolling, and a hugely balanced attack on offense here, I do not see NM keeping up.

Play 1 Unit on Colorado State

San Diego State -10

Ok I had a top play on Wyoming last week, and they lost in 3 OT’s against deplorable and I mean deplorable UNLV, and surrendered 69 points, over 50+ in regulation.  Really?  Wyoming stud RB Hill in big trouble against Rocky Longs defense here ranked 2nd nationally at 2.9 yards per carry and Cowboy QB Allen cannot play vertical against the SDSU “D” either.  SDSU is a cover machine going 15-2 ATS their last 17 regular season games.  Did you know SDSU has the leading RB in the country at over 1700 yards rushing this season?  Didn’t think so…SDSU is a whitewash even on the road, this is a good team! 

Play 1 Unit on San Diego State

Utah –14

A Blowout – Oregon is bad, they have given it and Utah blasted these guys last year and Utah controls their density in the PAC 12 to get to a title game and they will be all over the Ducks who have NO defense and Stanford rolled them last week for almost 300 yards rushing, so what do you think Utah's RB Williams is going to do?  Roll then again.  OU’s frosh QB Herbert in for a long day on the road here with Utah's DL harassing him.  This will get ugly for Oregon and remember Utah beat them last year 62-20 in Eugene.

Play 2 Units on Utah – TOP PLAY – Double normal Wager. 

Georgia Tech -11

Virginia is bad, they benched a bad QB for another bad QB last week.  Tech rolled Virginia Tech last week in a shocker where I actually laid 14 against them and I learned my lesson.  If Bud Fosters defense could not stop them, then how does Virginia, and how does Virginia who has 2 wins all year trade punches on the scoreboard on the road?  They don’t.

Play 1 Unit on GT

Carolina  -3

Three things are actually.  Panthers need to salvage some pride at home where they have been dominant and off a rare home loss to KC last time here, I expect the Panthers to pull out all the stops.  Short week plus travel on Thursday is doom for road teams, the better defense is at home as well, and Saints not the same animal away from the dome.  The Saints also off a devastating loss, and frankly the Saints are turnover prone and against an attacking defense, I expect a few turnovers to go the Panthers  way and Saints defense flat out bad.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

#303- Ohio U (pk)   7 EST 

Frank Solich is playing for a Division Championship tonight – enough said.  Since Cen. Michigan’s miracle and illegal win against Okie State they have fallen from grace, and in the last 4 games CMU’s vaunted QB Rush has thrown for more interceptions than TD’s and Ohio U has the best defense in terms of scoring allowed in the MAC, QB Maxwell is stud, and Ohio U is playing with double revenge and have went 6-0 ATS their last 6 road games.

Play 1 Unit on Ohio U

NY Giants +1 to Pick

Two things here.  Cincy in prime time is always a fade. QB Dalton and HC Lewis in prime time has always been a fade.  Cincy has lost their mojo, even off a bye not bucking the 3 game win streak of the Giants at home here and while Cincy has AJ Green, Manning has Odell Beckham and even with Cruze out for this one, Cincy cannot run it and I think Manning passes all over Cincy in this one.  Giants have better run defense which makes Bengals one dimensional and NY has one of the better 3rd down defenses in the NFL.

Play 1 Unit on the NY Giants   

Patriots -7.5

Yeah a public side but consider that Brady and company have been on a bye week and bring back 3 starters from injury list and the Seahawks on a short week off a brutal MNF game travel across 3 time zones to play this one.  Seattle’s defense has been on the field a ton in terms of minutes and by mid second half will be exhausted in this one.  Seahawks have no running game and Wilson be we running for his life.  New England with ease by Double Digits.  I have New England as the top team in the NFL in my power ratings and 8 points better here, not counting the situation and home field.  Brady lives for games like this!

Play 1 Unit on New England

New Orleans -3

OK – A second string QB for Denver basically, no CJ Anderson yet, both starting CB’s are out, DE Wolfe now out too.  Saints are playing GREAT BALL and racked up 571 yards last week and Denver cannot trade punches on the scoreboard here despite the Saints defense being less than stellar.  The Bronco’s gave up 30 first downs in Oakland last week, back to back roadies and Brees and company are averaging 33 ppg at home and have handed Seattle a loss in here.  Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Derrick Carr torched them already this year, expect Brees to torch them as well.  Saints 4-1 SU last 5 and have covered 10 out of their last 13 games dating back to last year.

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans

2 Unit Two Team 6 Point Teaser – Points Added – tease New England down to -1.5 and tease Philly up to +7.5

#201 - Minnesota +7   *7:30 EST

Nebraska overrated and look to be without Tommy Armstrong and their backup QB is horrific.  That said even if Armstrong Plays which as I capped this I figured he will, the 7-2 Gophers are no joke and will run it right at nebraska who is off the worst loss in the past 7 years, a 62-3 beatdown at Ohio State and the Huskers were exposed.  Also Huskers off back to back road losses and deflated.  Minny a good team, dual threat QB and well coached.  Gophers cash money on the road and this is for the Big 10 West title race and MInny 11-2-1 ATS in the Big 10 on the road their last 14 games!  3 Points one way or the other, this will not come easy for Nebraska.  If QB Armstrong for NU does not, I would bump this up an added unit, so check status on gameday, but the line will drop with that news as well.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

#205 -Vanderbilt +3.5  *3:30 EST

You cannot back Mizzou here as they have lost 11 straight in the SEC and in their last 2 home games have lost to Middle Tennessee St (by 6 and they were favored) and Kentucky (by 14 pts and they were favored again!) in Columbia!  Mizzou defense is horrific and injury riddled and Drew Lock, the Mizzou QB struggles against good defense's and Vandy allowing just 18 ppg their last 5, and gave high flying Auburn all they wanted last week, and Auburn is a team that could wax Mizzou by 21+.  I will take the dog here.  Mizzou a shadow of its former self under Barry Odom as head coach.    Mizzou ranked 112th against the run on defense and RB Webb for Vandy should have a big day.

Play 1 Unit on Vandy  

#142 - Virginia Tech -13.5 to 14  *3:30 EST

One thing about VT and their defensive coordinator Bud Foster, is they know how to stop the triple option attack.  GT is one dimensional on offense, we all know that,  and cannot play from behind and VT is rolling since their loss at Syracuse.  While the Yellow Jackets rush for over 330 yards per game, VT over the last 4 years has held them to 183 total in a 4 game average.VT QB Evans getting better each week and has a 21TD tpo 2 interception ratio.  VT at home is a 4 point advantage here as well.  Blowout in my opinion.

Play 1 Unit on Virginia Tech

#151 - Wyoming -7.5  *3:30 EST 

Head Coach Craig Bohl took North Dakota St to new heights and his plan is working out well in Wyoming now off a huge win last week over Utah St after beating mighty Boise St the week before and no let down here as he is trying to win the MWC Championship with 5 straight covers I might ass.  I watched this team play Nebraska this year, 24017 at the beginning of the fourth quarter in Lincoln before they turned it over 4 straight times.  QB Allen is solid and UNLV has QB issues all the place and word is undecided headed into this one at that position and UNLV just got beat by 2 win San Jose last week.  Rebels 0-6 ATS against a team with a winning record.  Wyoming stays on point here and are well coached and avenging a home loss to UNLV last year! .

Play 2 Units on Wyoming

North Carolina -11

I waited on this one and lost a point of value when it was at -10, but North Carolina has one of the better QB's in all of CFB in Trubisky with 19 TD passes and only 2 picks and North Carolina is rolling right now and this is a rivalry game in terms of a hoops program, but not really in football even though they are crosstown foes.  Duke CANNOT defend the pass and give up big plays consistently.

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina

Denver +1.5

Yeah yeah, Oakland is a good story this year, I had them on the futures bet on over 8 wins and I did that because of their schedule this year early on.  Oakland has racked up tons of points with Carr, Cooper and Crabtree, but the 2 good teams they played with good defense waxed them.  KC beat them in here and allowed just 1`0 points, and Denevers defense light years beytter than any defense they have seen all year.  Look for Denver to win by a TD or more here Sunday Night.

Play 2 Units on Denver.

Two team 6 Point Teaser (points added) - Points Added - Tease Dallas down to -1 and Tease the Tennessee Titans up to +10.5 - Play 1 Unit

#415 - Nebraska +17 (or higher)   *8 EST

Look Nebraska gave Wisconsin all they wanted last week, as much as Ohio State or Michigan did when the y played the Badgers, and came out short in OT, and they catch 17+ against a struggling Ohio State team who let Penn State beat them and Northwestern almost beat them at the Shoe last week??  Really, OK.  Huskers ground attack with Newby (who is OK), plus mobile Tommy Armstrong at QB will give a banged up OSU defense fits all day, who allow over 5 yards per carry.  Too many points, Huskers make a serious game of this one, as they have no pressure like they did last week.  WR Westerkamp for NU is playing by the way, as my sportswriter source in Lincoln tells me.

Play 1 Unit on Nebraska

#411 - Alabama – 7 to 7.5  * 8 EST

LSU wins by running the ball.  Bama beats the hell out of people because they stop the run, force you to pass and then blitz the hell out of you and then wear you down and turn on the jets on offense. Last year they held the second coming of the lord himself in Baton Rouge, RB Fournette, to 31 yards.  WOW,   and they will again off a bye week, well rested and ready to storm LSU at home. Sabin LIVES for this type of game and demands his coaches to win games just like this in convincing fashion, he has done it time and time again.  Interim head coach against Sabin?  Game over.  My Vegas source tells me tons of sharp money on LSU is holding this line down under 10, so be it, I am with the public getting the best team in the NCAA at a TD or slightly higher.  

Play 2 Units on Alabama – Top Play

#554 - Tulsa -8  *8 EST 

Love Tulsa here against ECU and since East Carolina blew out offensively inept U Conn last week (I am not impressed- U Conn cannot score), this number is below 10 and a gift because there is no way that ECU trades punches on the road at Tulsa here against Tulsa’s high octane attack.  Tulsa playing with 6 time revenge as they have not beaten the Pirates since 2006.  ECU a deplorable 0-4-1 ATS on the road.  Tulsa a contender for a division title in AAC conference and this is a must win for them. 

Play 1 Unit on Tulsa

#363 - Georgia Tech +10.5   *12:30 EST 

Sharp action Vegas Play as my source in Vegas tells me this one of the biggest bets by local big betting sharps in Las Vegas this week and GT will be able to move the chains against a weak NC defense.  While I think North Carolina is clearly the better team this is always a tight game as the last 2 were decided by 10 total points and then the 4 years before that GT won all 4.  I will take the points here as NC has a ton of pressure to win out and need help to get to a title game in the ACC.  GT will go for broke and GT coach Paul Johnson is a riverboat gambler and will pull out all the stops here after a nail biter against Duke last week.

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Tech 

Atlanta -3.5 to 4

Making this short gents, the Falcons clearly better, avenging a loss to the Bucs, who played a 5 quarter game against Oakland and lost and now on 3 days rest have to play the high octane Dirty Birds.  Tampa gave up over 500 yards through the air and while Oakland had over 200 yards in penalties, Tampa still lost.  Without Martin at RB, Winston cannot carry the team alone, expect Atlanta even with travel and a short week to get revenge tonight.  Teams playing on Thursday off an OT game are 4-21 ATS and I think Tampa’s defense gets eaten up here.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

BONUS PLAY:   Colorado -13 Half Unit.  

Minnesota -4

The Line dropped off 6, no idea why.  Chicago and Minny, neither one is going to light up the scoreboard (under 40.5 might be worth a sniff for a half unit).  Culter back, and he is Mr. “I Don’t Care” when the going gets tough against good defenses, the Minny has a great defense, shut down corners and a hell of a pass rush for out of shape Jay Cutler tonight, and no doubt rusty.  4 in a bad number to lay on the road I know, but Chicago’s offense 15 ppg and allowing 20 ppg, with Jax coming in here and beating them, I can tell you the Vikings practice under Zimmer since last weeks debacle has been no fun and Minny will be focused.  I trust Bradford more than Cutler here.

Minnesota for 1 Unit 

#272 - Dallas -4  *8:30 EST

Bad number in what is a big game, but Dallas off a bye and Philly off a huge emotional win.  While there is hype over Carson Wentz for Philly, since the bye week he has 3 TD's and 3 Ints, and Philly's defense is getting a lot of press, however they do not stuff the run and with Dallas's OL, and Elliott who leads the NFL in rushing nice and fresh, and at home in Jerry World with a QB in Prescott that does not turn the ball over, I think Dallas jams it down their throat, they have the better rookie QB and while sometimes a  bye week kills momentum, I just do not see a Philly team winning this with Dallas controlling the game with a balanced offense and a strong running attack.  Minny has no offense, but this week they face a well rested machine that can put up yards. 

Play 1 Unit on Dallas 

#256 - Houston -2.5

Simple Math, Houston plays better at home and play a defense that has allowed teams like Houston numerous yards.  Yes Stafford is having a great year, but Houston has had one of the toughest Schedules against stud defenses all season, New England, Minnesota and Denver (all on the road).  Never put into motion what you saw last week and overreact, as Houston looked bad on MNF against an awesome Denver defense who knew how to attack Houston's QB.  Expect a better effort and look for Houston to pound the rock and show Stafford numerous blitz packages as well.  Detroit has no running game either.  Better running game, better defense and at home on a short number.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

#263 - Oakland (pk)

Tampa has a shaky pass defense ands shaky secondary and Oakland stayed put in Florida all week and did not travel and will be dialed in for this one.  Oakland is 4-0 on the road and I am not bucking them against a Tampa team who is off a win against lowly San Fran and I have no illusions, this will be a good game and may come down to kicking and Oakland has a huge advantage there.  Cooper and Crabtree will both have big days and with RB Murray back in the lineup for Oakland, it will keep the defense honest.  Going with Del Rio here as the better coach despite the Raiders defensive woes, they can outscore Tampa, in which this may be a high scoring affair, and we all know Oakland is never say die until the last play.  Tampa 3-15 SU their last 18 at home. 

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added)  - Tease New England DOWN to a PICK EM and tease Indy up to +8.5 - Play 1 Unit

#149 - Clemson –4.5   *8 EST

Every sharp in Vegas has hit Clemson.  One bookmaker took 330k in sharp bets alone this week as of Thursday on the Tigers and only 40k on FSU, and those were public bets.  FSU has struggled on offense all year and I am taking QB Watson over a frosh QB at FSU who is erratic and quite frankly Clemson is not as good as last year by they are a TD or more better than Florida State.

 1 Unit on Clemson 

Temple -7

Yes, I took Cincy last week, and they cashed big over a fading and messy East Carolina team, however they are playing a Temple team here with added rest that just waxed a very good South Florida team, who in fact that same South Florida team destroyed Cincy awhile back.  A 2 headed QB Monster for Cincy with Keil and Moore trying to kickstart the offense and they will have to trade punches with a high octane offensive attack of Temple with 3 stud RB’s behind a finely tuned OL paving the way for them to steamroll the Bearcats.  Temple 7 straight covers boys, make it 8. 

Play 1 Unit on Temple 

Sat

#156 - 12 Noon est     Oklahoma State +3.5 to 4

While I stated in August that West Virginia was my Big 12 sleeper pick to make a lot of noise, and they have, mainly because of a soft schedule, they are up against it this week , although I admit Okie State has been inconsistent this season.  This is really Okie State’s season on the line and they need a big win and I think the Mountaineer’s get exposed this week in a shootout here.  OSU is stacked with talent and Mike Gundy going up against his old offensive coordinator and he knows their playbook.   This line in August on the futures was Okie St -8.5 and now they are a home dog?   I find value with the Cowboys at home catching a number over 3.   

Play 1 Unit on Okie State  

#175 - Duke +6.5  *12 Noon EST 

Paul Johnson is a bad coach, in a bad triple option system at GT and is totally one dimensional on offense and people have figured out to defend his offense, and David Cutcliff is a good and masterful head coach with a team capable of winning this outright.  Duke has beat them the past 2 years and Duke gave Louisville all they wanted their last game. Techs biggest win this year was against Vandy – they have no biz laying this number in my opinion.

Play 1 Unit on Duke

Friday N

#113 - Navy +7   *7 EST 

No respect for the team who is better getting points..oh and the better defense getting points too.  South Florida just got beat by Temple, badly.  What does Temple do?  They run the football, and with success against the 100th ranked run defense of the Bulls, and Navy will slam it down their throat all night as well, and have no doubts, QB Will Worth for the Middies is a good QB.   Gladly take the points here, and not over reacting to what I saw last week, but going on pure stats, Navy the better team and battle tested and crushed Memphis last week as an underdog, wasn’t even a game gents, it was a free play of mine.  Navy also beat Houston soundly as well. 

Play 1 Unit on Navy

Bonus Play – Play a half Unit on San Diego St -6.5 in the late game to beat Utah State. 

Jax +3.5

While the Jags have failed to live up to expectations, in a battle of bad teams, I always prefer the dog in most cases, and this one is no exception.  Jacksonville has been in tight games, 6 games overall, 2-4 SU but in 4 of those games, those contests were decided by 4 points or less.  Titans off a loss against the Colts who have no defense, and last week was embarrassing for the Jags who had an edge in yards against the high octane Raiders in mid fourth quarter, but the folly of turnovers, a fake punt that worked, and various bonehead coaching calls continued to plague them.  Jax 0-2 the past 2 years in Tennessee and want revenge, and overall they have the more talented team.  Knowing Tennessee cannot put away a game, and they are an unreal 5-18-2 ATS against teams with a losing record their last 25 against sub .500 teams, I am taking the Jags here.

Play 1 Unit on Jacksonville

# 478- Denver -7.5  *8:30 EST 

Denver on a 2 game losing slide that I see getting reversed here and Houston banged up with key position players playing at less than 100%.  Add in the fact Denver’s defense is the best one on the field, their running game in better and also the fact that Houston has played 2 good teams all season and got blown out by both of them.  Denver with added time to prepare for this one and home field clearly worth 3 full points here.  QB Osweiler returns to his old team, the Defense may have a little extra something special for him.   Colts gave Houston a game and had them shut down on offense with the NFL’s worst defense all but for 7 minutes of that game, what do you think Denver will do to them, especially with shut down corners? 

Play 1 Unit on Denver

BONUS 2 team same game 6 Point Teaser – Side and Total - – Teaser Denver DOWN to -1.5 and Tease the Total UP to 46.5 and take the Under. 

Pats -7

Look this is square as hell, on the side of the public however no Big Ben is a HUGE deal ands worth a 7 point deduction for the Steelers, Jones at QB is no bargain.   and Brady and company clicking none other, and the Pats defense Top 3 in the NFL and is shutting down good teams, and quite frankly are they are best unit on the field this Sunday.  Pats defense is NO joke, and against this offense without their leader is a mismatch.  Without Big Ben and many 3 and outs, look for brady to pick apart the NFL's 30th ranked pass D, especially late.  

Play 1 Unit on New England

#469 - San Diego +6.5

The Falcons defense will have issues with the Chargers passing game and Rivers is tearing it up this year.  Off a brutal game against Seattle and travel and the Chargers off a long rest after beating Denver dead to rights last Thursday, I will grab the points here in what should be a shootout..  Chargers 4-2 ATS this year and could have damn near every game they were in. 

Play 1 Unit on San Diego

#455 - Saints +6 to 6.5 

Look KC will not put up a ton of points against anyone, even the Saints .  They will pound the rock like last week against Oakland and try and keep a high powered offense off the field, but Drew Brees is crafty and will in fact get off some big plays and verticles against KC who is off a huge win, but against good offensive teams KC cannot trade punches all day.  Look for KC to try and grind it out and New Orleans to hang tight here, in what should be a good game.  70 degrees and Sunny, no nasty winter weather for the dome team to contend with.  KC does not have the resume to lay this number yet.  

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added)- Tease Miami to +8.5 and Tease Minnesota to +9

#324  - Cincy -1.5 *7 EST

Cincinnati was a team many experts were high on with season win totals and the over this year, but they have self destructed and not lived up to expectations, however that is good for us as East Carolina comes calling this week, and the Pirates  defense is the type of defense that Cincy and a healthy QB Haden Moore can expose and rack up some points on.  Tommy Tubberville is on the hot seat at Cincy and needs a big win to get back on track, and ECU is not a good team who gives up 5.3 yards per carry and their secondary is suspect and they have managed just 2 picks all year.  Cheap number, I see the Bearcats winning by 7-10 at home in this one.  Getting this under 3 is a gift.  

Play 1 Unit on Cincinnati

#353 - Charlotte +12.5 to 13  *5:30 EST

No sold on Marshall in any way shape or form here and Charlotte will give the herd all they want in this one.  Neither team any good, and in a battle of two bad teams you always look at the points.  This is the biggest sharp money play / wise guy play in Vegas this Saturday confirmed by my Las Vegas source.  The better RB and QB are both on the side of Charlotte here, and the QB Klugh for Charlotte will have a big day against a bad secondary of Marshall (he is 70% completions on the year). 

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte

# 405 - Texas AM +18  *3:30 EST

Ok Alabama is the crème of the crop.  But Texas AM has a way of hanging around, they have beaten good teams or hung in there with them all year, and never say die. The Aggies lead the SEC in total offense and are getting no respect here, but they should be an underdog.  Alabama carrying a premium number and no matter the number Vegas hangs on them the public bets them.  A team who could put up points against them and hang around like an Ol Miss which Bama barely beat , will give them issues.  No doubt a shootout and backdoor cover here not out of the question by a long shot, and I think AM contends for 4 quarters here.  Aggie QB Knight no stranger to Bama, he was embarrassed at Oklahoma 3 years ago in the Sugar Bowl and no doubt will have something extra.  Aggie defense allows 19 and Bama's defense 15.  Both score at will it seems on offense.  Aggies cover the number.

Play 1 Unit on Texas AM

#319 - Syracuse +4.5  *12:30 EST

Lets see Syracuse ran it up against VT and pounded the vaunted Hokies whose Bud Foster's defense had no answer for last week, and that VT team beat BC 49-0!  Like Syracuse getting over the fall number of 3 here despite being on the road.  BC defense is suspect and QB Dungey and company can move the ball and chains here.  Outright win would not surprise me, after a confidence building win last week, gladly take the points.  Another sharp money move in Vegas with numerous big bettors on this Side Saturday, 

Play 1 Unit on Syracuse