Gonzaga +1.5 to 2  *9:20 EST 

You know the ACC is 3-14 ATS in the post season?  Over rated again, the mighty ACC.  Mark Few is a Better coach than ol Roy Boy too – BIG TIME.  The Zags big guys are going to pose a huge problem for Meeks and the all the paint action for NC.  Carolina also loves to foul, and the Zags can knock down FT’s.  That is why Oregon almost beat NC and should have in all honesty, and I was on NC for a 2 unit play.  Lesson learned.  Roy Williams is an average coach at best with talent galore. He reminds me of Mack Brown when he coached at Texas.  Loaded but fail in the limelight 99% of the time.  Zags also play better defense by a long shot and are the dog.  Mighty NC is a Massive public favorite in every game and yet oddsmakers have this at a near pick’em.  WHY?  Because they know this is a coin flip and the Zags could win, and that is why the Zags are only -107 on the moneyline and not getting more juice their way.  Is it impossible for NC to lose in the title game 2 years in a row?  Everyone says no.  Ask the Buffalo Bills if you can get to the big game more than once and still lose, it is more than possible.  Williams Goos is as good as any guard NC has and can score at will and with the defense that NC plays he will get open looks.  I am going contrarian here and bucking the public and more than one sharp and taking the Zags to win it.

Play 1 Unit on Gonzaga

March Madness clients and CBB Clients – Had some great winning streaks long term in CBB this year and one horrific February run as well, not my best year.  March Madness did not turn a profit for the first time in 5 years and I apologize for that.  I could make up a 100 excuses but won’t. I am paid to win, and this time around I failed with great frustration. It was a crazy tourney with huge surprises and 1 or 2 point bad beats all over the place, and I was on the wrong side.  I will strive to be better next season and know after 25 years I will be better, long term success tells me so.   Appreciate your biz this season. On with NBA and MLB gents.    

#814 - North Carolina -5   *8:40 EST 

Hate to lay over 3 in any game in the final 4 ever, however NC lost the title on the last shot of the game to Nova last year, fought and clawed to get back here, and frankly the game is going to be won in the paint.  The PAC 12 is not the ACC by any stretch and both Zona and UCLA got their ass handed to them, and Oregon beating a Kansas team who RARELY performs past the sweet 16 under Bill Self is not that impressive.  This is when Oregon’s second best rebounder being out hurts them.  NC should dominate the boards, which equates to easy buckets, which in turn also equates to owning the boards and controlling the game.  N. Carolina has experience big time and Oregon’s run, although well coached by Dana Altman, ends here.  Carolina has too many horses, and the Ducks depending on the 3 point shot to win big games rarely work out in big ones.

Play 2 Units on North Carolina 

#711 - Georgia Tech +3.5  *8 EST

When you have a game that is even you have to go with fundamentals.  GT has the ACC Coach of the year at the helm, they have the better defense and the best player on the floor in Guard Josh Okogie who has scored 21 ppg and 8 rebounds a game in the NIT Tourney.  TCU last 2 games were Richmond and Central Florida and I honestly think GT is the better team with intangibles to boot.  Both teams battle tested out of their conferences, but at days end going with the team that has held every opponent in this tourney to under 40% in FG's  from the floor.  Defense wins championships. 

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Tech 

#778 - Georgia Tech -2  *7 EST 

David versus Goliath in this one as Cal St Bakersfield has managed through 3 decent wins to get to the semi’s tonight, hitting a huge amount of 3 point shots and playing some good defense.  GT used to the big stage and GT has beaten numerous NCAA Tourney teams this season.  I like the overall team play and coaching for the yellow jackets in this one and the defense they have played in beating Ol Miss and Indiana to name 2 teams they beat in this tourney has been impressive.  Battle tested out of the ACC in a game game and big stage like this is an advantage for Georgia Tech

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Tech

Kentucky +2.5

Flat out comes down to better guard play and not sure North Carolina who coasted the last game but had their hands full with Arkansas of all people, can handle Kentucky hitting on all cylinders off a beat down of a great UCLA team.  Also the defense of Kentucky is sneaky good and handled the guard play of UCLA with ease.  This should be a shootout and Kentucky will run and gun all night as that is when they are at their best.  3 SEC teams in the Elite 8 so tired of the mighty ACC getting headlines as the only conference where you are battle tested.  Gotta take the points here with the team with a better backcourt and a head coach who has been here before as well.  

Play 1 Unit on Kentucky

BONUS PLAY:  Half unit on the OVER 159   

#512 -  Kansas -7   *8:45 EST 

I have been a big fan of Dana Altman since I used to interview him at his days in Creighton working for a local ESPN station in Lincoln NE.  The guy can coach, his players play hard and he will give you a game anytime, anywhere. They lost to Arizona who I thought was overrated all year in the PAC 12 tourney and lost one of their best players in the process.  On the other side Bill Self has fallen in the Elite 8,  4 out of 6 times he has been here, but you could not draw it up any better for KU tonight.  Playing at the Sprint Center in Kansas City is HUGE for Kansas, home away from home, and I live in KC and actually will be at this game but have NO bias.  Mason and Graham in the backcourt should flourish and are flat out studs.  Bill Self did his best coaching job of the season on Purdue, taking away their bigs and letting his dogs loose and he has the better team here in my opinion.  Oregon barely won their last 2 games, huge come from behind game against Rhode Island and a miracle win against Michigan.  Their shortcomings show up here and KU pulls away late with some hot guards taking over basically on a home floor.  KU by 10-12.  

Play 1 unit on Kansas  

#871 - Wisconsin +1.5 to 2   *9:55 EST

Experience, fundamentals, senior laden team in Wiskey and they have answered the bell as an underdog before and in the last game as well.  At days end this team has been to 3 of these as a team and that counts.  Florida is up and down and Wisconsin battle tested weekly in the Big 10 and I like their low post game and ability to hit threes outside.  The Badgers hang around and then put it away, that is their pattern of winning games late.

Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin  

#875 - UCLA -1  *9:30 est

Not sold on Kentucky at all, not the same dominant team and UCLA simply is loaded with talent across the board.  Tough call many think, but I think UCLA wins this by 8+ points.

Play 1 Unit on UCLA

#874 - Baylor -3.5  *7:25 est

Too long for South Carolina and Baylor is not shy about running and gunning and do not hold back, which was Dukes meltdown.  South Carolina a one hit wonder in my opinion and cannot trade punches here.

Play 1 Unit on Baylor

#815 - West Virginia +3.5  *7:35 EST 

Bob Huggins has a chance to win a huge game, in a big spotlight, which is something he rarely does however from I have seen from the Zags, I am just not impressed and they are not battle tested like the mountain boys are out of the Big 12.  West Virginia leads the nation in turnovers, have a relentless approach to defense and have a veteran team that is well coached, and they can knock down shots under pressure.  Northwestern dominated the last 10 minutes of their game against the Zags, NORTHWESTERN!   Enough said.  Zags might only have 1 loss, but they have not played anyone.

Play 1 Unit on West Virginia

BONUS PLAY – Half Unit on Purdue +5.  

#767 - Illinois +3.5  *7 EST 

Like Illinois here, the Big 10 surprised everyone in the Big Dance and Illinois despite hiring a new coach from Okie State is playing hard for the interim coach here and UCF, whom I have won money on all year, does not have the offense to contend here and this is a big step up in class, even at home.  Illinois has a much higher RPI and I like them here as a dog.  Beat a high seeded Colorado team and knocked off Mo Valley’s Illinois State who is no slouch and a #1 seed in NIT to get here.

Play 1 Unit on Illinois

#668 - Ole Miss -5.5   *9EST 

Beat Syracuse in impressive fashion on the road did the Rebels and they have not lost at home since Jan. 28th when Baylor came calling and they lost by 3 to a team in the Sweet 16.  GT is a team I won with against Indiana but they are a fade team on the road, and as a matter of fact have not won on the road since Jan.15th.  Ol Miss is tough to get through and have looked good in this tourney.  Ol Miss scoring 81 ppg their last 5, almost 17 ppg more than GT in the same timeframe.  GT on the road for the first time off 2 home wins, time to lose.

Play 1 Unit on Ol Miss 

#720 - Duke -7.5   *8:40 EST 

Look South Carolina relays on defense and are not a deep team out of the SEC conference which has basically 3 good teams in it.  Duke is loaded on offense and are an offensive juggernaut that will give the Gamecocks issues with tempo and depth.  Coach K (best coach in NCAA Hoops bar none - maybe in history) has his team hitting on all cylinders and clearly are my favorite to get to the Final 4 and they can win this whole thing.  Battle tested out of the ACC, deep, well coached, and can stretch out a defense and South Carolina despite a good defense, cannot trade punches on the scoreboard here.

Play 2 Units on Duke.

#733 - Oakland +4 to 4.5  *7:30 EST

Love high flying Oakland here who is road warrior at 11-2 SU as roadies and they are an excellent bet as a dog, cashing 20 out of 25 times as an underdog.  They have scorers all over the place and also play defense.  A well balanced team all around and Richmond does not perform well against good teams, which is why they are in this tourney - and frankly the wrong team is favored. Also the the battle of boards is an advantage for Oakland - Good road teams fare well in this tourney.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland 

North Carolina -11

NC names the score here.  3 of Vegas's biggest bettors laid big money on this game as their game of the day.  They placed no other bets.  

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina 

NCAA Tourney Game of the Year

#527 - Iowa State +1 to Pick   *9:40 EST March 18th.  

Gents I cashed Iowa State as my Tourney Game of the year about 9 days ago and I will cash them out here as well.  Purdue and the Big 10 overall is way over rated and Iowa State has Morris who is one of the best 3 guards in the entire country and they have 2 NBA players on their roster and are well coached.  They hit 3's and free throws and are big underneath.  Purdue's style here is not going to match up well against ISU who I am very high on to reach the Final 4.   Iowa can score at will, and they have been consistent in knocking down 3's and can go on runs and score in bunches.

Play 3 Units on Iowa State - GO CYCLONES!  

#532 - Arizona  -5  *7:45 EST

Zona one of the best teams in this Tourney and St Mary's cannot shoot over them all night.  Sucker line yes, but willing to lay it with who I picked to win this tourney.

Play 1 Unit on Zona 

#530 - Gonzaga -11  **5:15 EST  

Northwestern meets their match here.  Zags a potential Final 4 team.

Play 1 Unit on Gonzaga

#519 -  Wisconsin +5.5 to 6  *2:40 EST

No writeups today - Wisconsin is a veteran team - knows how to win and they are hot hitting 3's.  GREAT Guard Play

Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin

#832 - Dayton +6 *7:10 EST 

Shockers have 15 straight wins, blew everyone out in the Mo Valley Tourney and a team who can score and play defense and are extremely well coached, and this coach knows how to get it done in March.  A 10 seed against a 6 seed laying 6 points?  What does that tell you, as Vegas oddsmakers know who the better team is and seeding means nothing in terms of a number of worth. WSU won the Mo Valley regular and post season titles, are a 30 win team against Dayton but the Flyers are no slouch and have seniors all over the place and great guard play.  Outside of WSU and Illinois State the Mo Valley was deplorable this season and the Flyers won the A-10 regular season crown and that conference has 3 teams in the Big Dance and with Cooke, Pollard and Smith, will provide a stiff test for the Shockers, I will take the points in this one as both teams can score.

Play 1 Unit on Dayton

#836 - SMU - 6 *3:10 EST 

Look USC has beaten 1 team with a winning record since Jan. 28th.  That was the play in game to get this spot against mighty and damn good, high flying and high scoring SMU who buried Cincy in their their tourney championship game and have scorers all over the place.  I expect SMU to make a decent run in this tourney and to bury USC who simply cannot trade punches on the scoreboard against a good team, that has been proven all year in the PAC 12 by them.

Play 2 Units on SMU - TOP PLAY

#824 - Arkansas -1  *1:30 EST 

This is a fundamental handicapping play - Seton Hall cannot close out games and they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the Big Dance.  Watch any games on TV?    Are you sweating out the last 40 seconds of a game because it boils down to free throws?  Well then Arkansas who is well coached and a 9 loss team who lost in the SEC Championship to a stellar Kentucky team is the only way to look here.

Play 1 Unit on Arkansas

#827 - Oklahoma State +2.5   *12:15 EST 

Not sold on the Hype and attention Michigan is getting here.  A middle of the pack team in the Big 10 who got hot after a plane crash and won a tourney.  That said Okie St can kill you in many ways, are extremely well coached and battle tested out of the Big 12.  Honestly the Cowboys are the better team here catching points, I will gladly take them.  Big 10 way over rated.

Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma State

#715 - Virginia Tech +5.5  *9:40 EST

Trying to figure out the love affair with Wisconsin.  Every time I watch them play, they fail to impress.  They can’t shoot free throws, their offense is below average, their guards pass up shots and frankly despite their experience, their seniors at the guard play do not defend the perimeter.  VT shoots lights out from 3 point land, nail free throws and they beat similar teams in the ACC like Virginia and Miami.  An outright win here would not shock me, bad matchup for the Badgers who frankly as much as the media is in love with them, managed just a 8 seed. All you need to know.

Play 1 Unit on VT

#733 - Middle Tennessee State (PK) to -1  *4 EST

Minnesota is a good team, but overall bear in mind the Big 10 is not a good BB conference in my opinion and every team in this tourney perhaps outside of Purdue is overrated.  How Minny got a 5 seed is perplexing.  MTSU has the same exact group of players that beat Michigan State last year in this tourney, another overrated Big 10 team from last year (and this year).  No doubt this is a popular pick on brackets for an upset and I will gladly take the number here in another live dog scenario.  Williams and Upshaw for MTSU are very good players, and they have some solid out of conference wins on their schedule as well including Vandy.  Springs being out for Minny a big hit and MTSU dictates pace this whole game.  The ol 5 vs 12 game and at a pickem?   A 5 seed in a pick em ballgame to being favored?

Play 1 Unit on Middle Tennessee State

#735 - Winthrop +11   *1:30 EST

Any teams that score like Winthrop scores getting double digits is worth a look, and they are worth a strong look here.   Butler who allows 68 ppg playing a team who scores 79 ppg, and a better than average team here for the Eagles and have no doubt Butler will be very concerned about 5 foot 7 inch guard Johnson, Conference MVP in the Big South the last 2 years and the kid can drain 3’s.  No doubt a spark plug of a player and dangerous.  Cannot lay double digits with a team who managed 57 points against Xavier and lost their last 2 including to Seton Hall.  Too many points.  Butler is better but this should be closer than this.

Play 1 Unit on Winthrop

#718 - Notre Dame -6.5  *12:15 EST 

Cannot ignore the strength of Conference here and ND managed a Championship appearance in the ACC Tourney boys.  Ivy League Cinderella will not happen and ND should dominate this game.  The Irish gave Duke all they wanted and frankly this line should be double digits.

Play 1 Unit on Notre Dame.  

#623 - USC -2.5  *9:10 Est 

Revenge time.  USC blew a big lead and lost by 1 to Providence last year in the tourney.   USC’s coach is 14-3 ATS in post season play (used to be at Florida Gulf Coast) and USC despite being ridiculed by the media as undeserving, they will use that as motivation tonight and their offense which is unique to say the least, will give the Friars issues.  Providence is a middle of the pack team in the Big East, and USC determined here and well coached.  I will lay the short number.

Play 1 Unit on USC 

UNC Greensborough +12.5

Syracuse disappointed to be here no doubt, spring break for the students so the dome will not be a fever pitch as usual, and Syracuse’s coach just slammed Greensborough as a bad place to have a tourney.  While UNCG has nothing to do with the ACC, it provides motivation and bear in mind this is a team who 25-9 on the year, 8-4 on the road and puts up 75 ppg.  Lower seeds in this tourney are motivated big time to knock off Goliath, and I feel UNCG hangs close here.   Cannot ignore the fact Syracuse is complacent at times with lesser teams and this may be a good one.  UNCG ended the season on a 9-1 run.

Play 1 Unit on UNC Greensborough

#640 - UCF -2.5  *7 EST 

Let’s get this straight, home teams dominate the NIT in the first couple of rounds guys.  Also, lets get this out there, outside of Oregon, UCLA and Arizona, the rest of the AC 12 is average to below average at best.  Johnny Dawkins, who has vast experience in post season action as a coach and a player leads the Knights who play great defense and are extremely balanced, and Colorado plays no defense, and on the road, that is doom in the post season, just ask Indiana about last night, or Wake Forest.

Play 1 Unit on Central Florida

Thursday Round 1 Plays upcoming later tonight -DO NOT discount my prowess in March Madness guys – in EACH of the last 3 years a Top 8 ranked March Madness Capper and #1 in 2015 by a respected monitor.  Package is $200 - INVEST and WIN! 

#543 - Kansas St -1.5  *9:10 EST 

K State has a Top 50 offense / Top 50 Defense and a balanced attack and a balanced team.  Not sold on Weber as a head coach of high caliber however he coached a hell of a Big 12 Tourney and could have easily had a shot in the Championship game after losing to a very good Bub Huggins coached WV team by a single point.  Wake has a great offense but the worst defense in the ACC and ranked 299th overall and that allows teams like K State who is balanced on both sides to seal a win.  ACC a great conference no doubt, but the Big 12 is stacked as well…this will be a good game, give it to the more complete team in this matchup at this line.  Wake just 1-11 ATS their last 12 NCAA Tourney Games…WOW. 

Play 1 Unit on Kansas State

Georgia Tech +3

Wrong team favored.  GT has a vastly better resume, knew they were playing in the NIT and will bring their A Game.  Indiana a train wreck on the road (allow 80 ppg) which is why they are in the NIT and they covered just 4 out of their last 16 games.  North Carolina, Florida State and Notre Dame went down on this floor. 

Play 1 Unit on GT   

#890 - Wisconsin - 1.5   *3 EST 

Michigan is riding on pure adrenaline here and looking for a fairy tale ending starting with a plane crash and playing a game in practice uniforms and beating some good teams including a shocker in my mind over Minnesota yesterday as they blew a lead and then hung on against a better team.  It catches up with them today as Wisconsin and Purdue have been the best 2 teams in this conference all year, and the ease in which the Badgers dispatched a decent NW team yesterday (I took Whiskey) was impressive and they are hitting on all cylinders on offense right now which is key for them, and it should carry over today.  Wisconsin a veteran team who has been on the big stage before and that experience will be the difference down the stretch.

Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin

BONUS PLAY - SMU -2   - Too much offense for Cincy.  * 3:15 EST - Half Unit 

#883 - Rhode Island (pk to -1)  *12:30 EST 

Short and Sweet - I rode these guys yesterday to a blowout win, and while VCU and RI split the regular season series, it is Rhode Islands defense which will be a huge key in this game.  They also are red hot winning 8 in a row and coached well.  Two weeks ago rI won by 10 when they played and laid 4 points, now a pickem.  

Play 1 Unit on Rhode Island

Duke -3

Duke has beaten me 2 days in a row as I faded them against heavyweights Louisville and North Carolina.  Dukes tandem of Tatum, Allen and Kenard is just frightening because while Duke has been banged up all year, they are 100% healthy now and led by the best coach in college basketball.  Notre Dame has a solid team no doubt but had to hang on against Florida St after blowing a big lead,  I like the fact Duke beat 2 of the better teams in the country to get here and on the door step of a championship with Coach K, I do not see them falling short now.  I learned my lesson - Duke red hot. 

Play 1 Unit on Duke

Iowa State +3

Bottom line is Iowa State is better.  I rode them for a GOY last night and they won wire to wire in a blowout.  They will have a heavy crowd in this one as they always do in Kansas City and Iowa States offense and size is going to be a big advantage here.  West Virginia never wins the big one, and while Huggy Bear is a good coach, Iowa State has 2 NBA Players on their roster, they are deep and should win this game.  Live Dog big time here.  ISU starts hitting 3's and it will be an easy win.

Play 1 Unit on Iowa State 

Vandy -3

No time for write-ups - Rode Vandy last 2 days and will ride them again.  Good team, lots of shooters and better than Arky in my opinion.

Play 1 Unit on Vandy

Wisconsin - 5

No write-up short on time.  Veteran team, well coached., and with Purdue out this is their tourney to win, best team left standing.  If they hit 3's they should be able to win with ease here.  NW playing on adrenaline but a good punch in the mouth here and they will fade late.

Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin 

Rhode Island -4

No write-ups, short on time.  Good team here, best on defense in A-10 and although Davidson has Gibbs, they do not have much else.

Play 1 Unit on Rhode Island

#564 - Creighton -3 to 4   *9 EST

Xavier needed to win Thursday to keep Big Dance Hopes alive and put everything into that game.  Creighton leads the conference in 3 pointers and have a deep and tall team.  The Blue Jays split with these guys in regular season but Xavier 5-12 ATS their last 17 in Big East Action and quite frankly have been so inconsistent as of late I cannot trust them on the big stage, and McDermott is a hell of a coach.  Creighton who I had last night, played like dog shit for 30 minutes and still won.  Better team, more offense.

Play 1 Unit on Creighton 

#570 - North Carolina -4   *7 EST

Faded Duke yesterday and it was my lone loss, but NC flat out better and although Coach K outcoached Ricky Pitino yesterday, he will not out coach Roy Williams. NC too deep and too talented on offense to give way to a tired Duke team who lives and dies by getting to the charity stripe and favorable calls.  Louisville pissed down their leg yesterday.  Duke has been over rated all year guys, NC flat out better and dismantled a decent Miami team by 25 yesterday in a no sweat winner.

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina

#557 - Vandy +6.5  *7 EST

Vandy swept Florida this year, pounded Texas AM yesterday (my top play) and while Florida is a damn good team, they do not match up well against Vandy who have covered 16 out of the their l21 games.  Tight one all the way.

Play 1 Unit on Vandy

Iowa State -4 to 4.5

Well, TCU did a nice job of getting a high NIT seed with an upset over Kansas, who was without one of the best play makers and scorers, and KU blew a double digit lead.  I am fading TCU here big time against mighty Iowa State, long in the box, and shoot 3's like no ones business and simply will run the floor ragged with the Horned Frogs tonight in Kansas City, a game I will be at in person.  TCU lost 7 straight before beating a bad OU team and upsetting Kansas.  In over their head here.

Play 3 Units on Iowa State 

#536 - Central Florida -2 to 2.5  *2 EST

#1 in the nation on defense in NCAA Hoops – they simply deny shots.  Memphis is all over the place and inconsistent.  Memphis is 1-5 their last 6 and SMU destroyed them Saturday and racked up over 100 points.  UCF hot – I am rolling with them on a short number.

Play 1 Unit on UCF  

#733 - Creighton – 2   *9:30 EST 

The Blue Jays offense, and bear in mind they have scored 100 ppg on a neutral floor this year and the Friars just 56 ppg on neutral floors.  Creighton has all the tools to take this tourney into the championship games and their 82 ppg on offense should put them over the top in this one.  Providence beat Creighton recently in Omaha, fresh on the mind of the Blue Jays.  Better team, Better coach, more scoring power.

Play 1 Unit on Creighton

#772- Vanderbilt -3   *7 EST

Vandy handled this team twice this season and I expect a 3-Peat.  Texas AM cannot string together enough consistency to beat a good Vandy team.

TOP PLAY – 2 Units on Vandy

#764 - Louisiana Tech -4   *6:30 EST

UAB won by 1 point, LT rested and crushing it right now, their last 5 games scoring 89 and allowing 55.  They win with ease here.  Avenging a loss although the series was split this season.

Play 1 Unit on LA Tech   

#714 - Louisville -1.5  *2 EST

Duke playing badly, Louisville’s defense and rebounding too much for Duke, who I feel is very overrated.

Play 1 Unit on Louisville

Georgia -1 to 1.5

No time for write-up - Georgia flat out better, I like them to pull away late.

Play 1 Unit on Georgia  

#576 – Texas Tech -4.5  *9 EST

Texas has dropped 7 straight games and failed to cover the spread in any of them.  Tech is vastly better and can close a game.  Bear in mind Tech lost to Kansas by 1 point, TCU by 1 point,  and also lost to Iowa State and West Virginia I OT and also beat Baylor this year.  Texas 0-11 on the road. 

Play 1 Unit on Texas Tech 

#580 - Auburn – 6.5  *9 EST

I took Auburn over the weekend against Mizzou and will lay it again.  Mizzou the worst team in the SEC, cannot win away from home and they flat out stink and do not play hard for their coach who should get fired after this game when he arrives back in Columbia.  Mizzou is toast here again. 

1 Unit on Auburn 

#569 - Georgetown -1  *7 EST

This is a favorite pick of the day by a friend and Vegas oddsmaker, and numerous sharps have plunked down some decent money on the Hoyas and the line may move.  Season Split between these two, but St Johns defense is deplorable and have allowed 80 points per game in their last 5 games.  Hoyas off a beatdown against Nova, but overall the better team so we lay the short number with the sharps.

Play 1 Unit on Georgetown 

#561 - Penn State -2   *4:30 EST 

Look Nebraska off their worst home loss in school history, (3-12 SU last 15 Big 10 games) Tim Miles is no doubt on the hot seat and the Huskers (I am a grad) have thrown it in.  They cannot score, and Webster is their only option (and a good one) but he is off his first game in 30 games where he did not score double digits Sunday in an ass whipping by Michigan.  Penn State has dropped their last 5 games but are avenging a season loss to Nebraska and I just do not see the Husker offense able to put a game away, and if things go bad for NU, they throw it in.  Pathetic performance on Sunday and while I expect them to show up, they cannot hang here and willing to lay a short number against a team who have lost their last 4 Big 10 games by an average of 20 ppg. 

Play 1 Unit on Penn State   

#716 - Zaga -5   *9 EST 

The Zags are for real and no sharp players in Vegas backed away from this line.  I pounded St Mary last night because of their defense as of late and they did exactly what I thought against BYU, but BYU flat out sucks.  The Zags have beat them badly in both meetings this season, nothing will change.  Statement game for the Zags playing a rare ranked opponent.

Play 1 Unit on Gonzaga 

#714 - Northern Kentucky -5.5   *7 EST

Been wanting to take these guys a few times in this tourney, but tonight the Cinderella story ends for Wisconsin – Milwaukee who is 11-23 but knocked off Valpo and Illinois Chicago, both upsets in this tourney, especially Valpo.  These two split games this season both winning at home but the Norse can knock down 3’s and have been hot, hitting 50% from the floor last night and cruising to a 10 point win after a 20 point halftime lead against Youngstown State.  In their last 5 games No. Kentucky has hit 51% from the floor, 76% from the charity stripe and 41% from 3 point land, and scored 84 ppg.  WOW.   Plus the Norse are 12-6 ATS on the road, and while I respect the hot streak W-Milwaukee has been on, It ends here against a high octane offense hitting on all cylinders. 

Play 1 Unit on Northern Kentucky

BONUS ACC Play HALF UNIT (also 7 EST Tip)  – #712 - Georgia Tech   +2  

#542 - St Mary’s -7   *11:30 EST

I have admired St Mary’s for years, a feisty program that always lights it up on scoreboard and gives you a game, but this year there are a sleeping little Giant boys, ranked in the Top 18, and they have beaten BYU badly twice this year and despite all the notions that schools like this rain 3’s and live and die by them in small gyms, this team plays badass defense, and no team that they have played has exceeded 58 points on offense against them since before Valentine’s day and their defense is 21 ppg better than BYU’s in their last 5 game averages and for St Mary’s in their last 5 games, they have averaged 54% in FG%. WOW

Play 1 Unit on St. Marys 

Illinois State +7.5  *2 EST 

Opened at 9 at bookmaker offshore and shot down quickly for a good reason   ISU and Wichita State are the creme of the Crop in the Mo Valley and split a regular season pair of games with WSU blowing out ISU at home in the last meeting.  This is too many points here in what should be a great championship game.  ISU is the top defensive team in the conference and third on offense.  WSU is tops in the league in offense, so this will be a battle of who can knock down shots and Wichita St has a rough time for 30 minutes with Mo State last night who plays little defense, ISU has breezed through this tourney to this point.  

Play 1 Unit on Illinois State 

#609 - Kansas +1  *6 EST 

Yes a sucker bet but as hot as OSU has been, the only 2 games out of their last 9 games against good team they got beat including Kansas.  Waters is out of Okie St and Kansas is getting March Madness game face on.  Bill Self will not want his season ending on a loss, even on the road to a decent team, KU will not settle for that as a throw away game.  Kansas one of the best teams in the nation bar none.  Might want a small lean on the UNDER 164.5 too...FYI 

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

#568 - Auburn -9  *3:30 EST   *3:30 EST 

Look Mizzou is a fade team.  A season of Misery ends today.  Mizzou managed just 24% from the floor in their loss to Texas AM and that was AT HOME.  They are the worst team in the SEC and their coach will be fired the day after their next loss int he SEC tourney- Just a fade against a bad team who has thrown in the towel and cannot score.  

Play 1 Unit on Auburn

#657 - Southern Illinois +8 *3:30 EST 

No time for write up - game just released - This has been a 4 point and 7 point game this season in meetings.  Saluki's hang tight here and make a game of it.

Play 1 Unit on Southern Illinois 

#536 - Depaul +7  *2 EST

Xavier went from a 3 or 4 seed to possibly missing the tourney.  Dropped 6 straight and with Summer out and Bluiett banged up, I like Depaul at home here to come up with a big effort as a live dog.

 Play 1 Unit on Depaul

#517 - Illinois -4   *12 Noon EST 

Look Rutgers is ranked 322 is scoring in the NCAA and Illinois playing for a bubble spot and possible bid in the big dance and are hot as hell.  Illinois 3-0 SU / ATS their last 3 road games, and have ripped off 4 in a row.Rutgers cannot handle the firepower here and have mailed it in, despite senior day and all that, Illinois should win by 8 here or more.

Play 1 Unit on Illinois

BONUS PLAY @ 12 Noon EST   - (#525)  Pitt +11.5 - Virginia anemic on offense to lay double digits to anyone and Virginia off their biggest win of the year and are not playing for a bye in ACC tourney either, that is not an option.  Pitt stays within the number. Play half unit on Pitt.

#869 - Missouri State +2  *9:30 EST

Have to go with offense here and better guard play.  Northern Iowa has lost 3 straight scoring 44,59, and 42 points and I simply am going with Mo State based on their offense.  These two team split the regular season games winning on each other’s floor and this is a good matchup of middle of the pack teams here, but I like Mo States big’s on the offensive glass for easy points and if their guards can knock down some outside shots, they should win.  This game in their home state and I feel Missouri State is the better team getting points.  Northern Iowa a shell of their former self and are very young and have major issues on offense, and yes their defense is good, but at days end I am grabbing the points where the underdog in this series is 10-4 ATS.

Play 1 Unit on Missouri State 

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Bradley -3 to 3.5 MAX

Yes this is a battle of bottom feeders and Drake has lost to Bradley in both conference games this season and yes it tough to beat a team 3 times in one season, however Drake is dead last in the Mo Valley in about every stat category that counts and that includes one of the worst defenses in the NCAA, and in their last 5 games allowed 81 ppg while scoring 68.  Bradley is not the Braves of old who used to dominate this conference however Bradley won by 7 points and 8 on the road against Drake this past weekend and have enough moxy to pull out a win here.  Bradley has won their last 3 games and in their previous 3 losses to decent team those 3 losses were by a combined 11 points, while Drake has dropped 9 in a row!

 Play 1 Unit on Bradley 

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#525 - Arkansas +11  *7 est

Florida is a beast in the SEC but they are laying a huge number to one of the best SEC road teams in Arkansas who can absolutely light it up from the outside with Hannahs, Macon and Barford who all average double digits.  Arkansas is a hot team who can score at will (84 ppg their last 5) and they have ripped off 5 straight wins.  Florida off a deflating loss to Kentucky by double digits and while this is a big home game, Arkansas should hang tough, as nothing comes easy this time of the season with teams like Arkansas knowing this is a post season resume building type game.  Anyone who can score like the Razorbacks and getting this many is always worth the stretch.

Play 1 Unit on Arkansas 

#721 - Florida State +6.5  *7 EST  (might go to 7) 

Too many with super guard Allen out for Duke here.  He opens up a lot of things on offense for the Blue Devils and despite their recent run with Coach K back, this is going to be a war tonight against a good FSU team who has a 16 point win over Duke already this year and FSU can flat out light up the scoreboard and that brings big points into play here.

Play 1 Unit on Florida State

BONUS PLAY - #748 – Georgia Tech -2 at 9 EST.  I expect the Yellow Jackets to get over on Pitt in their final home game and Pitt off a bad loss to NC and have Virginia on deck!  

#515 - North Carolina -3.5   *7 EST 

High Octane offense in the Tar Heels who have proven once Virginia is not match for them, even though the Cavs defense is ranked as one of the best in the country, it makes no matter.  Time to look at coaching, and who dials in their players as March 1 approaches, and gets them in tourney shape better than Roy Williams?  I can answer that, very few coaches do. Awesome that in their last 5 games Virginia has held opponents to 63 ppg, problem is they only scored 58 ppg in those games on offense, and you have to score points to beat NC and that is why a few weeks ago NC beat the Cavs by 24. 

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina 

#833 - Oakland -8 to 8.5   *3 EST 

Two teams going in different directions here, Oakland is a scoring machine scoring 88 ppg their last 5 games, shooting a whopping 50% from the floor and have won 8 straight games while Milwaukee Wisconsin struggled on offense at 63 ppg their last 5 games, allowing 74 and they should get beat on the boards here too.  Oakland is no joke and are 19-6-1 ATS on the road their last  26 road games.  

Play 1 Unit on Oakland 

Kentucky -4 to 4.5  *2 EST

I expect a double digit win at home here.  Revenge spot at home, DeAaron Fox is 100% and I expect KU to light up the scoreboard here.  Many people down on KU, they have off the chart stats, like them at home here in a big game before the tourney, Calipari loves spots like this.

Play 1 Unit on Kentucky

BONUS PLAY #610 - Texas State -1  *530 EST

St Johns +1

Catching a good number here and the Sharps in Vegas and my source are unloading on this one.  St Johns a beast at home with recent wins over Seton Hall and Marquette and they do not turn the ball over and well coached and coming on.  GT over rated.

Play 2 Units on St Johns

#873 - Valpo -2   *7:30 EST

Short number for Valpo against Wright State tonight and even though a road game Valpo is the class of the Horizon Conference and has the best Offense and Defensive percentage numbers of any team in the conference, and while Wright St can put up some points, they are 3rd to last in defense in this conference and Valpo only laying 2 here after already beating this team by 15 last month, has me taking a lean on them to win by 6-8 points. 

Play 1 Unit Valparaiso 

#529 - Memphis +14  *7 EST 

Too many points based on recent scoring models and numerous sharps are hitting the Under here and neither team their last 5 games is averaging over 68 ppg and both playing good defense in those last 5.  That said Cincy is no joke at home undefeated this season but this is always a tight ballgame and a conference rivalry, I will take the points , especially double digits in what should be a game where neither team exceeds much more than 70 points if that.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis 

Play 1 Unit on Memphis 

#540 - Georgia Tech -3   *8 EST 

The only thing performing worse than yours truly in CBB in NC State who has a lame duck head coach who is already fired and the Wolfpack are on a huge slide and allow 87 ppg on the road while scoring just 66.  GT is tough at home at 14-3 SU this season while NC State is just 1-7 on the road and I do not see them winning here.

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Tech  

Virginia -7

Dropped 2 full points and I waited for it, after the Cavs dismal effort Saturday I like them to bounce back at home.  Miami still without one of their stars and I will gladly lay it here as oddsmakers begging you to take the Canes with Virginia's last showing simply pathetic against North Carolina

Play 1 Unit on Virginia 

Georgetown +6.5 to 7

The Hoyas have had a full week to prepare for this one and beat Creighton by 20 at home last month.  The Blue Jays are just 3-3 SU their last 6 and just lost to Seton Hall on Wednesday.  Georgetown has a knack for being pesky beating teams like Syracuse, Oregon and Butler on the road this year.  Jays struggling a little in recent weeks and I like the points in this one. Creighton has never fully recovered from losing Watson in my opinion. 

Play 1 Unit on Georgetown 

#657 - USC +9.5 to 10  *10 EST

I prefer to take the points with a fairly hot team in the Trojans who KNOW they can hang with UCLA in this heated rivalry and USC already owns a win over UCLA by 8 earlier this season.  4 straight wins for USC who then dropped one to a very good a highly ranked Oregon team, but in a rivalry game here and cross the street foe so to speak, I will gladly take big points in what should be a very good game.  I expect a tight one and USC to cover here.  UCLA is a terrible ATS team in the PAC 12 and always carry's premium numbers.  

Play 1 Unit on USC 

#572 - Purdue -9.5  *4 EST 

Purdue just too big for Michigan State here and should handle this one with ease.  Purdue pounded the Spartans in East Lansing already this year and will win by double digits at home.  Purdue the real deal, and Coach Izzo just does not have the horses this year. 

Play 1 Unit on Purdue

#551 - UT Arlington -2  *2:15 EST 

Small Conference gem here but Georgia State is a public darling in this conference and again my Vegas Source says huge sharp money came in on UT Arlington here and they are the most talented team in the Sun Belt and have their big man back who was out for a tough skid for them, but they will win this one on the road against a huge public side.

Play 1 Unit on UT Arlington 

#539 - Mississippi St +10.5   *2 EST

Florida has a huge game on deck with So. Carolina in 3 days and this is a tough road spot.  Miss. St well coached and will give the Gators all they want in this one. My source in Vegas said 2 syndicates hit this game hard for big money out there, and I agree.  Scheduling spot for Florida is not good - back to back roadies and Miss St has hung tough in all 3 losses their last 3, and Florida lost big man Egbunu for the season this week.  Aggie's have not beat Florida since 2011 and will play hard and cover.

Play 1 Unit on Miss. State 

#571 - Illinois State -4   *9 EST

Yeah another road team but Mo State plays no defense ISU in their last 5 games have held opponents to under 60 points and own a win already here in this series, and Mo State just managed 52 points in a home loss to Northern Iowa, a bottom feeder in this conference.  ISU is 8-1 ATS their last 9 road games.  Mo State is 1-5 SU their last 6 games.  Illinois State Needs this win to stay within striking distance of Wichita State.

Play 1 Unit on Illinois State

#559 - Creighton -1.5  *8 EST

Like the Jays against Seton Hall tonight. After losing one of their studs 3 weeks ago Creighton has stayed steady and continue to impress.  Big matchup down low with Blue Jays Patton and the Pirate’s Delgado but Creighton has the guards and that is the difference.  Creighton 10-1 away from Omaha beating teams 12 ppg on the road average.  WOW. 

Play 1 Unit on Creighton 

#533 - Wichita State -13   *7 EST

The Shockers keep laying numbers and cover huge, they simply are the best team in the Mo Valley and beat up weak sisters.  They beat this team 87-45 two weeks ago and Wichita St. is a road dream in betting, they have covered 41 out of their last 59 road games.  Total mismatch.

Play 1 Unit on Wichita State

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#716- Pitt -4    *7 EST

VT off a huge upset win and short rest and Chris Clark is out for VT with his 12 ppg and  baords.  VERY tough spot for VT and Pitt laying much better basketball right now and I like them here at home against a tired team with a key player out who are playing on the road.

Play 1 Unit on Pitt

BONUS PLAY - Ohio U +2.5  (also at 7 EST) Half Unit 

#859 - Washington State - 8:30 EST

Colorado has won 4 out of their last 10 games and while 4 of those wins have come in their last 5 games this is a huge number for them to lay, Washington St owns a win over the Buffs already and this is too many points.

Play 1 Unit on Washington St 

#583 - Texas +12  *4 EST 

Yes Texas is 0-7 SU on true road games this year and while they may not win this one, they did beat Okie St back on 1/4 82-79 and now catching 12?  Neither team can close out a game and Texas plays everyone tight, this is simply too many points, and Texas plays a better brand of defense.  Texas just upend Iowa State this week and still getting no respect from oddsmakers here, I will gladly take the double digits.  Texas 8-3 ATS their last 11 in Big 12 Play! 

Play 1 Unit on Texas 

#563 - Central Michigan -3.5  *3:30 EST

Love the Chippewa's here on the road.  the road team in this series is 11-5 ATS and CMU has covered and won the last 2 here on the road and in their last game won by 9 and covered at home and scored 101 points in that game.  The offense of the Chippewas is no joke, scoring 92 ppg their last 5 games as compared to Miami (OH) who has scored 69 ppg.  Yes the Chips play little defense, but they simply outscore you and win.  Short number here for a hot team who is 5-2 ATS their last 7, while Miami OH is 1-9 SU their last 10. 

Play 2 Units on Central Michigan 

#713 - Purdue -1.5  *7 EST

With or without Blackmon I do not see Indiana hanging here with mighty Purdue.  Short and Sweet, better team, even on the road laying less than a 2 pointer is a take here.

Play 1 Unit on Purdue

BONUS PLAY – Missouri State +18.5 (playing Wichita St)  * 9 EST

#537 - NC State +13.5  *7 EST

Yep bucking the red hot Florida State team while NC State is falling on hard luck, but this is a MUSt win for NC State and while I do not think they win, they need this one and they will play tough and a look ahead spot for FSU as well with Notre Dame on deck.  NC State scores 81 ppg and while their average is lower on the road, I still like their chances at a cover here. 

Play 1 Unit on NC State

#527 - Ol Miss +5   *6:30 EST

Look Tennessee should not be laying anywhere near this number and Ol Miss if a GREAT road team, 7-1 ATS their last 8, and already beat Tenn. By 11 3 weeks ago.  Yeah I know Tennessee beat Kentucky in here, and beat Kansas State in here, but Ol Miss is 26-10-3 ATS their last 39 road games.

Play 1 Unit on Ol Miss

#740 - Northwestern -5.5 to 6 MAX    *8 EST

Short and Sweet, NW off a blowout loss without Lindsey on Saturday (flu) and clearly have the better team. He is back and they should run away with this one at home.  Illinois struggles on offense continue and the Wildcats at home is a foul mood after a humiliating defeat should roll it up on Illinois who have scored 43 and 59 in their last 2 games!  WOW. 

Play 1 Unit on Northwestern

#5660 - Creighton -3.5   *3 EST 

I like the Bluer Jays at home, as they have their feet under them after losing Watson for the season and off a big win this week.  They are very tough to beat at home in Omaha and Xavier only 2-5 on the road and struggled in their last 2 games with wins but St Johns and Seton Hall gave them all they wanted.  Creighton beat Xavier on the road by 5 already.

Play 1 Unit on Creighton

BONUS PLAYS HALF UNIT EACH - Indiana Pacers -4 and Washington State +7 

#729 - Memphis -13  *7 EST 

I have faded South Florida twice this season and cashed both.  Inb their last game Memphis shot 30% from the floor and still won by 7.  South Florida plays no defense and has little offense either, and they are off a 41 point beatdown against Cincy.  Memphis is clearly the better team here.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis 

Georgia Tech +9.5 to 10

Perplexed is a great word when I look at this line.  I took GT at home against Clemson about 2 weeks ago as a big dog and they won outright and now they are even a bigger underdog?  Why.  In their last 5 games on stats, and that is how you cap hoops, looking at recent trends and stats and not season long stats as much, GT is flat out better.  they match Clemson in points on offense and are 14 ppg better on defense, and will out rebound the Tigers and get easy buckets because Clemson is the smaller team by far.  All indications point towards a line of maybe -3 for home court, no way double digits.  Big overlay here I am taking the points gents.

Play 2 Units on Georgia Tech 

#719 - Central Michigan +7   * 7 EST

Again we have a team who can flat out score (86 ppg) on the road against a team with a losing record laying a big number in conference action.  CMU has plenty of firepower on offense despite Buffalo’s 66 ppg allowed at home to hang within this number.  CMU playing with double revenge as Buffalo swept them last year and Buffalo 2-4 SU their last 6 and CMU off back to back wins.

Play 1 Unit on Central Michigan

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY:  #733 – Maryland +2.5  *7est 

#525 - Okie State -1.5  *9 EST

OU was buried against Florida this weekend and failed to reach 55 points on offense and they face the #1 offense in the Big 12 in Okie State who quite frankly simply has a better team, better players, and vastly more offense.  Lon Kruger is rebuilding this season and while neither of these teams is going to contend for a Big 12 title, Okie State is 5-8 points better here.  Okie State playing with 7-time revenge and have not beaten OU since Feb. of 2013.  Think they want this one?   The Cowboys lead the Big 12 in 3 pointers made, OU is second to last!   I will take the more consistent scoring team who no doubt is highly motivated

Play 1 Unit on Okie State 

#863 - Illinois State -7 to 7.5 max    *4 EST 

The Purple Aces are having issues scoring, 58 ppg their last 5, and they are playing the top team in the conference here.  Illinois St is ALLOWING just 57 ppg their last 5!  Need I say more.  Evansville has dropped 7 straight games - and ISU is a 60% ATS cover team on the road this season so far.

Play 1 Unit on Illinois State 

#604 - Kentucky -7   *6:15 EST 

Kansas beat up and depleted in depth with recent suspensions and if they got waxed on the road at West Virginia what is Kentucky going to do to them.  Not sold on Kansas being ranked this high, they exposed by a good team again.  Kentucky has won their last 4 home games by 98 points, that is 24 ppg spread per game.  While Kansas looked like a public take here, I will lay it and go against the grain.  Kentucky has better athletes and are deeper and if Kansas gets in foul trouble Kentucky can pull away. 

Play 1 Unit on Kentucky  

#555 - Loyola Chicago -1.5  *2 EST 

Too much offense for Indiana State to contend with even at home, and ISU plays little defense.  Short number on the road where Loyola Chicago has struggled but this is a very beatable opponent.

1 Unit on Loyola Chicago

#539 - St. Bonaventure +6.5  *2 EST

Not sold on Rhode Island laying this number.  St. Bonny's has been a rock solid road team all season at 7-2 ATS and they are 9-1 ATS in this series, and have the better offense and Rhode Island stinks at the free throw line as well, just 58% in their last 5 games.,  This will be a close one. 

Play 1 Unit on St. Bonaventure

#883 - Wisconsin GREEN BAY +7.5  *9 EST

No idea why Oakland is laying his many as their home court is not overwhelming, as both these teams are explosive on offense and GB in their last 5 games is averaging 77 ppg, and Oakland just 71 a game in the same timeframe and are shooting just 21% from 3-point range.  GB playing with double revenge after getting swept last year, allowing Oakland 111 points in both games. Oakland in a recent game lost to Wright State by 21 points and Green Bay beat that same by 17.  High scoring, GB hangs around, grab the points.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay