#552 - Illinois State -13   *8 EST

The Top Team in the conference will smoke Indiana State tonight.  We are catching them at home as well here which is a bonus, hell I would lay this on the road if I had to.  Illinois State is the Top team in the conference at 8-0, they are the best defensive team in the conference and second on offense.  They already beat this team on the road by 19 and are playing better now!  In their last 5 games Illinois State is allowing just 56 ppg, that is 22 ppg better than Indiana State. Bear in mind Illinois State beat Wichita St in here by double digits.

Play 2 Units on Illinois State

#713 - Auburn +9.5   *6:30 EST 

Not sold on South Carolina laying this number as Auburn and Bruce Pearl are scoring some points right in, as I tend to look at recent 5 games trend this time of the season, and while the Tiger defense is not all that good, they are scoring damn near 80 ppg their last 5 games and South Carolina’s shooting average is 37% from the floor in their last 5 games, and Auburn does hit the defensive glass better than the Gamecocks who are off a 16 point beat down against Kentucky in their last game.   I think this is lower scoring tonight and will bring the big points into play. Also PJ Dozier is very unlikely to play tonight for SC, and he averages 14 ppg!   

Play 1 Unit on Auburn

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY:   Kansas +3.5  

#519 - NC State +16   *7 EST

This road trip is a 20 minute bus ride across town in Raleigh and I expect NC State to give 100%, and while it might not be enough, this is a huge number for Duke, who is featured a lot on Mondays and are 5-15 ATS their last 20 Monday games.  Add in the fact Duke carries a premium number always, they have managed just 2 covers in their last 8 games and Grayson Allen is not 100% for this one.  NC State is well coached and will bring all they have here, and bear in mind NC State has not lost by more than 10 points to Duke since March of 2015.  Duke the better team, but in a rival game and not playing all that well, I will grab the big points and the Wolfpack here.

Play 1 Unit on NC State 

Virginia Tech +6

Say what?  Clemson has lost 6 straight, and yes 4 of those losses are to ranked teams, however this is too many points.  I have these two teams even, and although the Hokies have not played all that well lately, I like them here as Clemson is off a 32 point beat down against Louisville and no doubt the Tigers confidence is shaken and they have no business laying this type of number.   The Key in this game is rebounds as Tech has some good big guys that hit the boards and Clemson is a very undersized teams.  That means cheap buckets inside favor VT here.  

Play 1 Unit on Virginia Tech  

#663 - Southern Illinois -3  *8 EST 

Tricked out line?  Well I am buying it, as Northern Iowa is not a good team this season after massive losses to graduation.  UNI is 3-13 ATS dating back to last season, and they have managed to score 57 ppg on the road this season playing a team with a winning record, who is 6-2 ATS their last 8 as a favorite and scores 75 ppg at home. NIU has won their last 2 games at home in a row, however they are a different animal on the road and they are catching a ticked off SIU team off an brutal OT loss at Drake, where they played badly.  Good setup for a better team who is better than the spread here.

Play 1 Unit on Southern Illinois 

#239 - Tulsa -6  *1 EST 

Cheap number for the Golden Hurricanes against free falling South Florida, even on the road as South Florida has lost their last 6 games by a total 14 ppg, all double digit losses except one. Too much offense from Tulsa here.

Play 1 Unit on Tulsa

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY - #563 - Illinois +8  *2:15 EST 

Richmond +12

What the hell is Dayton laying 12 for in this game, always a battle between these 2 teams and Richmond is 7-3-1 ATS the last 11 in the series.  The Spiders are scoring 77 ppg their last 5, 7 points better than Davidson and the defenses are damn near even, and even the season long stats are damn near even, and Dayton has a guard out in this one averaging 9 ppg.  Too many points.  Richmond 5-1-1 ATS on the road this year and in their last 5 games are averaging 51% from the floor. 

2 Units on Richmond! 

#561 - Kansas State +3  *9 EST

K State played 2 brutal back to back games including Baylor and they are a great offensively, while Oklahoma State could not stop grandma with a shopping cart at Costco on defense.  Okie State has dropped 5 straight and K State gets a team they can beat here, should have a big night scoring, take the points.  OSU has gave up 84 ppg their last 5 and K State should have beat Kansas and Baylor.  K State better than their record indicates.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas State – Go Cats! 

#747 - Wichita State -11 to 11.5   *9 EST 

Seriously, WSU off their first conference loss and steaming mad about it, and Evansville in free fall, losing 4 straight and lost by 11 and 12 points to far lesser teams at home their last 2.  The Shockers offense is head and shoulders above the Aces, look for a 20 point win here.

Play 1 Unit on Wichita State

#647 - Wichita State -2.5   *8 EST 

The offense of of the Shockers here is the difference, averaging 82 ppg.  The Shockers on road games are 3-0 SU this season and although they are a horrible Saturday ATS team, just 1-7 ATS their last 8 Saturday games, they are not as usual carrying a huge number in this one.  The Redbirds are no doubt the second best team in the Mo Valley and spread it around well, but WSU is shooting 50% from the floor, 40% from 3 point range and scoring 87 ppg their last 5 games!  

Play 1 Unit on Wichita State -   Might be worth A LOOK  for a half unit on the OVER 139.  

Virginia -2.5  *noon EST

Clemson off a 22 point spread loss against GT (I had GT) the other night and I am all over the Cavs here.  Clemson offense way too sparatic.

Play 1 Unit on Clemson

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY - #557 - Nebraska +9  *2 EST

Huskers sneaky good and although missing a key player here, Michigan is laying too many here, grab the points.

Play 1/2 Unit on Nebraska

#516 - Georgia Tech +9.5  *7 EST

I will take home points here with a team who has beaten North Carolina this year, and Clemson has dropped 2 straight against ranked opponents, but the defenses are even and while Clemson scores more on offense, no road win comes easy and GT i8s capable of winning a game like this, I will gladly take the points.

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Tech 

#760 - Creighton -5.5   *9 EST 

Blue Jays at home, they lead the nation in FG% and that also includes 3’s, at nearly 43% and their lone loss was to top ranked Nova on this Floor.  I took Creighton laying a small number Saturday and they were a no sweat winner, they simply have too much offense for Butler here on their home floor.  Amazing their 7-footer Patton can also hit threes and also keep defenses honest by going low post and it opens up their perimeter game – very hard to defend.  Butler is slow and methodical, but look for Creighton to dictate to their fast pace and for their backcourt to shine.

Play 1 Unit on Creighton

#529 - Ohio U -1   *7 EST

Popular with the sharps in Vegas, Ohio takes on Buffalo, and the Bulls defense is going to give the Ohio offense plenty of chances to cover this number, which is currently less than a bucket.  Buffalo giving up 76 ppg their last 5 games, they have lost 6 out of their last 10 and in the last 5 games the Bobcats are shooting 48% from the floor.

Play 1 Unit on Ohio U 

#707- St Johns +6.5 to 7  *6:30 EST 

Georgetown in free fall and laying this number makes no sense to me.  While I usually see a line and stay away from it because it stinks to high heaven, the Red Storm have been playing some good ball, and the yearlong stats on off / def between these 2 is damn near even.  GT has dropped 4 straight and this is always a rivalry type game between 2 storied Big East teams, and St Johns has the better offense and are scoring 84 ppg on the road.

Play 1 Unit on St Johns

#531 - Wichita St -10  *4 EST 

Laying 10 on the road is always tricky in CBB, no doubt, but it is warranted here as Northern Iowa is way down this year, and they have covered just 1 spread out of their last 11 games and their offense is averaging just 55 ppg thier last 5 while the Shockers are averaging 87 ppg and scored 90 against Drake and 100 against Bradley in their last 2 games,  NIU cannot trade punches on the scoreboard and these two teams are a mis match in favor of the visiting Shockers today who are red hot. 

Play 1 Unit on Wichita State

#753 - Creighton -4    *2 EST 

5 Time revenge for the Blue jays as Providence has won 5 straight against a Creighton team who will be dialed  here.  Providence has a good defense but Creighton's #10 ranked NCAA offense will test them and beat them in my opinion.  Too much offense for the Fryars and Creighton's MvcDermott will have his kids coached up for this one. 

Play 1 Unit on Creighton

BONUS LATE STEAM :  HALF UNIT -   #851 - Loyola Chicago -2.5 to 3  (playing at Bradley at  8 EST) 

Loyola Marymount -3

Pepperdine has lost 9 straight games and have not seen their home floor in quite some time, but it will not matter tonight against Marymount who is an average to slightly above average team at best this year but they are playing a team who has allowed 84 ppg their last 10 games and are a funnel to the basket on defense and LMU should put up a ton of points here and cover the number with ease.

Play 1 Unit on Loyola Marymount  

#538 - Loyola Chicago -2   *7 EST 

Northern Iowa was the once the class of this conference but have lost a ton to graduation and rank 235th in offense ranking at Ken Pom and on the road the Panthers numbers are horrific this year.  They are scoring 53 PPG and Allowing 75 PPG!  Wow.  Loyola of Chicago is 10-5 SU, scoring 69 ppg at home and they are 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS on their home floor.  Looks too good to be true at a cheap number but I am drinking the kool aid on this one, and I will take the 4th ranked offense in the Mo Valley at home against a team who cannot score on the road and plays bad defense. NIU has dumped 4 in a row and after Loyola laid an egg in their last game at Illinois State and got blown out badly on their home floor, I expect them to bounce back tonight and bear in mind Illinois State is the 2nd best team in this conference behind Wichita State in my opinion.  

Play 1 Unit on Loyola of Chicago  

Ol Miss +14.5

This line is perplexing, but not sold on the Gators laying this big of number against a team who scores more than them, are better rebounders,  has a better free throw % than them and in their last 5 games has an equal defense in points allowed.  My power rating says 7 points difference even on the road, and we are getting 14.5.

Play 2 Units on Ol Miss  

#530 - Old Dominion -5.5   *7 EST

William Mary is the lesser team here, they are a bad road team (0-5 this year), and the favorite in this matchup is 10-2 ATS the last 12, and ODU dating back to last season has covered 8 out of their last 10 at home.  In 10 lined games this year ODU is 6-4 ATS and their defense is 23 ppg better in allowed points.  WOW.  William and Mary can score where ODU is a slow paced and based in fundamentals, but the better defense at home is the take here.

Play 1 Unit on ODU  

#719 - Kentucky (PK)   *7 EST 

Look, Louisville has a great defense and have 2 key wins over Wichita St and Purdue, but have not faced a powerhouse team like Kentucky.  In my opinion this is the best team talent-wise, even though young, that coach Cal has had.  You can throw the 59 ppg on defense allowed by the Cards out the window, as Kentucky can hit you about anywhere on offense and after a shootout with North Carolina over the weekend, I can assure you Coach Cal has stressed some defense in practice and will use the wide open approach on offense.  The two leading scorers for Louisville average just 11 ppg, and I do not see how they trade punches on the scoreboard against KU even though their defense will slow them some. Kentucky 14-4 ATS their last 18 games dating back to last year.

Play 1 Unit on Kentucky 

#747 - SIU Edwardsville +14.5

Playing Green Bay on the road.  The Phoenix (Green Bay) is allowing 89 ppg at home, and shoot just 28% from 3-point range and are laying almost 15?  Any team with no defense whose opponent has a better 3 point shooting team than them, and laying this type of number is worth a look at the dog.  SIU has the better defense and a much better turnover ratio.  Green Bay off a bad beat down against big brother Wisconsin over the weekend. 

Play 1 Unit on SIU Edwardsville 

Davidson +15.5 to 16

Kansas playing in KC, the weather is deplorable here, as I live here and am going to this game.  Davidson is a good team and KU does not have Fog Allen on their side.  Look for an easy cover here, too many for KU to lay.  Sharp bettors all over Davidson tonight in Vegas, the line is dropping, bet it right away.

Play 1 Unit on Davidson 

#715 - Georgia Southern -1.5  * 7 EST

Florida International has won 3 games this year and honestly 2 of those wins are against schools I have never heard of and I have been capping games for 25 years!  GS is a good team with all 5 starters returning from last year, they gave NC State all they wanted in a surprising and impressive 2 point loss and they are a better than average spread team at 15-5 ATS their last 20.  They have a superior backcourt production advantage here.  Less than a layup - I will take em as numerous sharps hit this in Vegas today and the line will climb, get on it.  

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Southern  

#536 - Nevada -10.5  **10 EST 

Off a huge win against Washington, and a strong home floor for the Wolfpack, 14-3-1 ATS their last 18 home games, I am all over them tonight as they should shut down UC Irving as they managed just 53 points against St Mary’s in a 31 point ass kicking 2 days ago and now travel to Reno to play Nevada

Play 1 Unit on Nevada 

#713 - Temple +15.5 to +16   *7 EST 

Going take the points here against Nova.  Yeah they are #1 and own their cross town rivals no doubt.  Temple has some solid wins against West Virginia, and Florida State and are scoring 75 ppg, and although the Nova defense is good, Temple has plenty of shooters and will keep this within the number.

Play 1 Unit on Temple – BONUS Half Unit on Santa Clara late -5.5 to 6      

#552 - Butler -3 to 3.5

Play 1 Unit on Butler over Cincy this afternoon, tip is at 3:30 CST.  With short timeframes, this season on Saturdays,  I am not writing long game descriptions guys as I have to breakdown all these games, and then get them posted in a reasonable time frame.  Rest assured they are researched and capped, and also my Las Vegas source is an odds maker who I work with out there and the info I get is top shelf and we are getting on games the whales are on.   

Play 1 Unit on Butler

BONUS PLAY - #583 - Colorado +4.5 to 5 for half unit - Game at 9 CST.  

#745 - Creighton -4   *9 EST 

Coach McDermott may have his best team at Creighton ever, and Tim Miles continues to struggle at Nebraska in big games and as a head coach at NU has never beaten his I-80 rival, Creighton who is just a 45 minute bus ride away in this one, ranked 10th currently and Huskers have no answer for Patton in the middle.  Looks like a set up line and ect, but Nebraska cannot get over on Creighton.  Watson and Foster in the backcourt for Creighton one of the Top 3 backcourts in the nation.  NU home floor is tough,  here but Blue Jays will have plenty of fans there as well.

Play 1 unit on Creighton

#540 - Evansville -6   *8 PM EST 

Opened at 4 but this should be a double digits.  Bowling Green is 0-3 on the road and the Purple Aces of Evansville again have a better than average Mo Valley team and I like their chances here tonight. Evansville’s defense will keep BG in check for sure, their depth and offense should dominate the game.  Evansville 4-0 SU  home.

Play 1 Unit on Evansville  

#549 - South Alabama -4 to 4.5  *8 EST

Sharps in Vegas pounded So. Alabama from 4 to 4.5 already in some spots. It opened at 5.5 and dropped like a rock and now the line is creeping back up.   South Alabama is playing with 6 time revenge, and have no beat Southern Miss since 2008 believe it or not.  So. Miss cannot shoot from the outside, 18% from 3 point range, just UNREAL.  Ken Williams from So. Alabama is a great player.  

Play 1 Unit on South Alabama 

Syracuse +6.5

I am Short on write-ups this season guys, time is crucial,  rest assured all my CBB is well handicapped and power rated, plus I post after noon CST as I also contact my 2 inside sources in Vegas who know where the sharp players are betting, and trust me these are INSIDE sources behind the counter.  That said I like Cuse and their front-court here and off an ugly game getting added value, and Wisconsin is hit and miss nightly from the floor.  Too many points here.

Play 1 Unit on Syracuse

BONUS PLAY:  Play 1/2 Unit on Pacific tonight +8.5, Nevada's best player is out.  Sharp move in Vegas. 

#523 - Butler -2.5 to 3  *9 EST 

Utah has played no one to date, their strength of schedule and RPI rating is a joke and Butler is battle tested, and just off beating Arizona in a Tourney and Butler is 6-0 and playing a team who is 4-10 ATS their last 14 games as a dog.  Huge step up in class of Utah, I will take Butler with a strong front court 1-2 punch here.  Not sold on Utah's 59 ppg on defense, again they played no one really to date at all.

Play 1 Unit on Butler  

#602 - North Carolina -2.5   *9:15 EST TIP 
If you listen to my radio show on Yahoo Sports or Sirius in the football season, you know I have the inside track in Vegas with knowing where the biggest sharp pro bettors are going, and they are on North Carolina.  In fact my source told me to expect a double digit win.  Both teams dominated their opponents in the Final 4 semi's, however Nova's beatdown of Oklahoma was shocking by 44 points, and the line is set to reflect that however and give the public points with a hot team and begging them to take it.  Carolina is the better team, period.  I do not expect a 70%+ shooting performance from Nova, and off a perfect game like that a false sense of security may be present, but I assure you I have Carolina winning it all in my bracket this year, and I thought play they had the best shot in the tourney outside of Michigan State who blew it in round 1, from the beginning of this tourney.  I have them winning this game with their guard play and depth and coaching by 6-8 points.  My power rating spread, despite Saturday's result is still 5.5 points and that is a 3 point overlay.  NC has five straight double digit wins, and while bucking the public here and fading a good Nova team who will not go down easy, Carolina puts it away late. The Tarheels are averaging 88 ppg their last 5 games against very good teams and remember Carolina is 25-1 SU when they exceed 80 points in a game.  
Play 1 Unit on North Carolina
NOTE:  I want to thank you for all your CBB biz this year.  A 62% regular season did not pay the usual dividends in March Madness this season and my Madness package was subpar and we apologize for that, it was a rough tourney to call ATS-wise with allot of parity both in NCAA as well as the NIT and CBI, and even straight up with lots of 1 or 2 point bad beats and ect.  It happens, no excuses, but we hope to cap off the season with a win tonight.  Again, Thanks for all the biz.  Tony G 

#811 - Nova -2    *6:05 est tip off 
As a Big 12 fan, this pains me because OU is last Big 12 standing, but I have to go with Villanova here, they hit the boards hard, play better defense and while Buddy Hield for Oklahoma is the best player on the floor, OU will have issues with the 4 guard lineup of Nova and their defense which is pretty wicked in shutting down the other 3 shooters that OU has.  Buddy will get his points but he has also not stepped up in big games throughout the season and I feel the pressure will be too great for him to carry this team alone.  Nova fundamentally sound, extremely well coached and have plenty of firepower, hits the boards aggressively and have the intangibles to win this game.    Yes OU beat Nova in Hawaii this season but Nova shot 13% from 3 point range in that game and OU 54%, and that wont happen again. I have flip flopped on this game all week but talking with my sources in las vegas all the sharp money has been hitting on Nova for the reasons above.
Play 1 Unit on Villanova
BONUS PLAY - HALF UNIT - Syracuse +9.5.   Tough call in this game but with 4 teams left standing and Syracuse beating Virginia by 7 after being down 14 at halftime against the Cavs defense, there is little respect for them on this line.  No one is here by accident no matter what you think of Syracuse, and they have a killer matchup zone defense and should be able to play a half court game with NC and slow it down and keep the score lower, and that brings big points into play.  

Nevada -3.5 to 4

This is a home game for the Wolfpack who beat up MSU by 9 points in the 2nd game of the Best 3 series championship.  MSU has played 4 road games out of their last 6 games and far away from home in Reno with distractions, and quite frankly dealing with some altitude fatigue as well, I like Nevada at home to get it done BIOG tonight. Nevada 15-3 SU at home and are 10-1 ATS their last 11 home games, this is a strong home floor and Nevada has better talent that this Ohio Valley team. Too much offense for Morehead St to trade punches with.

Play 1 Unit on Nevada

#714 - Valpo -2   * 7 EST Tip 

The rebounding ability of Valpo the story here, a 30 win hoops team winning by an average of 10 ppg.  I must say GW beating up San Diego State was a shock to me and allowing less than 50 points for the Aztecs was also a shocker.  Unfortunately for GW I doubt seriously that Valpo shoots 28% from the floor and 13% from 3 point range tonight as SDSU did in the semi’s and handed them the game on a silver platter, they simply played a team who sucked last game and looked good in the process.  Bryce Drew is a great head coach for Valpo (former player – his daddy a legendary coach) who is 13-5 overall SU away from their home floor this year.   

Valpo ranks 5th in the nation with offensive rebounds and 18th in the nation with defensive rebounds, and rebounding a HUGE factor in any game, especially in the post season as we all have seen throughout March Madness.  The Colonials of GW are no slouch and have a good team, and this will be a tight game, but willing to back Valpo who played a very tough BYU to the wire and are a battler tested, well coached team who rebounds well and spreads around the scoring, have a deeper bench and I feel a better defense.

Play 1 Unit on Valpo

SDSU -3

Really like this Aztec team.  I had them a time or two for free and premium plays in this tourney so far.  Big rebounding team, they beat Washington and Georgia Tech, a couple of Big 5 conference teams in convincing fashion and have won their 3 NIT games by a combined 55 points.  They can put up some points.  They are athletic at the big man position and although GW can put up some points, I do not see them matching up on the boards and if you have been watching any post season play, the team that rebounds better, wins the game and does cover some spreads as well.  I think Georgia Techs coach said it best, and that was that SDSU is playing in the wrong tourney!  That means something coming from a coach in the ACC.  They shut Washington’s high flying offense down and will do the same here.  Bigger guys, vastly better defense and well coached.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego State 

North Carolina -10

I cannot recall all of my Elite picks over the 24 years of capping, but I am doubtful I ever laid double digits in an elite 8 game, but it is warranted here.  NC beat the Irish by 31 in the ACC tourney.  They lost to them in their last meeting at ND in February, but that's a good thing because Roy Williams will remind them of that and dial his team in for this one.  NC is the hottest team in the tourney, winning their 3 tourney games by a combined 50 points, and they just destroyed regular season Big 10 Champs Indiana by 25 who I think is better than this ND team.  All in all ND will not hang tough the whole game and remember the Irish had 19 points at halftime against Wisconsin.  Roy Williams will let the dogs out tonight and bury ND.  NC is the best team in this tourney bar none.

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina  

#522 - Kansas -2     *8:45 tip 

Going to take the superior team here with depth.  Kansas cruised to a win over Maryland and played some good defense along the way.  The KEY to late season winning in the tourney is rebounds and KU hits the glass with authority and can mix and match players to create mis-matches.  Nova no slouch, they have been hot from the floor their last 5 ballgames no doubt and they buried Miami on Thursday, but Miami is an also ran and KU is the top tourney seed, the Big 12 regular season and Tourney champs and have a pedigree at head coach that has been in this spot before.  Look for Graham to have a better outing than his last game, and for KU to win 5-7 points here in a tight game.  Depth, rebounding, head coach and a couple of good guards who defend well.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas 

#875 - Gonzaga –4   *9:40 est tip Friday 

The Zags are built to bust up zone defenses, and have the post play to back it up, kick it back out and get uncontested shots in this game.  This is the worst matchup for Syracuse they could possibly imagine.  Gonzaga is on a roll and while Syracuse has a hall of fame coach, the Zags have a good coach of their own.  The Zags have stat edges in PPG, FG%, Free Throw %, Rebounding, Turnovers and Bench scoring.  Enough said.

Play 1.5 Units on Gonzaga

Oregon -3

This is when Duke gets crushed.  Oregon has a bench that could be a 12 seed in this tourney.  Duke has no depth – period and got by against a couple of weak teams and almost blew it against Yale of people.  The Ducks are just too deep, and those rebound numbers will balloon in favor of the Ducks. This line is public perception, second chance shot and depth, plus little travel for the Ducks here.  Oregon by 10. 

Play 2 Units on Oregon

#778 - San Diego St -4.5 to -5  *9 est tip 

I went against the Aztecs against a very good, high scoring Washington team and got scorched.  GT makes the trip way west here and SDSU is a formidable foe at home.  SDSU’s defense will give GT fits in this one, and quite frankly SDSU is playing better than any team in this tourney and right now they are my odds on favorite to win this tourney.   The Aztecs defense can hold GT superstar Hunt in check, and when that occurs, GT is average at best.  Home court here worth 2 to 3 points, willing to ;lay it with a hot team.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego State 

#623 - Washington +5 

The Huskies offense is 14 ppg better than that of San Diego St and they can and will also out rebound SDSU as well.  Anyone who watched any CBB this past 4 days realizes that without good rebounding, no matter how good the guard play is, those teams lose.  Washington better on offense and have scored 89 ppg their last 5, they are better at free throws, rebounds, bench and strength of schedule.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

#728 - Oregon -6.5    *9:40 est tip 
If you noticed real good teams Saturday like North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia all covered numbers and the trend will continue here.  Oregon has a no brainer in round 1in a 901-52 lay up against Holy Cross, St Joe's battled it out against Cincy for a thriller 2 point win.  Oregon's offense way too much for ST Joe's here, and oregon battle tested out of good PAC 12, and Dana Altman can flat out coach as well as anyone.
Play 2 Units on Oregon 

#718 - Oklahoma -6.5  *5:15 est tip 
Willing to lay points here.  A look at VCU shows their toughest 3 games the last 4 weeks they lost SU.  They also lost to St Joe's by 13 in their conference tourney.  OU has 4 starters who have played over a 100 games together, Kruger will let the dogs loose here and OU has the best player still in this tourney.  I cannot see VCU trading points all day with high flying and battle tested OU all day.  OU pulls away late.
Play 1 Unit on OU
BONUS PLAY:  #733 - Tennessee Martin +7 in NIT Tourney 

Ohio State -1
Home court huge in the NIT and for Ohio State here. This game is for a quarter final spot. Florida without second leading scorer today and replace with a freshman and they managed a record 16 three pointers against North Florida in game 1 of the NIT, doubt they repeat that.  OSU battle tested out of Big 10 and have a better coach. They beat a good Akron team in round 1, and I like their forward play better than Florida's here. OSU 15-5 at home SU and Florida 5-8 on the road.
Play 1 Unit on Ohio State 

#527 - U Conn +8     *7:45 est tip

Here is a news flash - I have seen Kansas play 3 times in person this year and each time I leave the arena, my first thought is KU is NOT the #1 team in the nation.  If you shut down Graham despite their depth, they are dead and you know U Conn will defend the outside.  Kansas was tested by Baylor and West Virginia, who both could not hit a shot in the second half of those games.  U Conn red hot and Kansas overrated.

Play 1 Unit on U Conn

#524 - Virginia -7    *7:10 est tip

Butler beat an average Texas Tech team...big deal.  Tech had 4 good wins all year.  Virginia may very well be the best team in this tourney, surely in the narrative and their defense will shut down Butler.  period.

Play 2 Units on Virginia - Top Play  

#519 - Yale +6.5 to 6    *2:40 est tip

If NC Wilmington could rebound at all, and hit second half shots they would have beat Duke by 10 on Thursday.  Yale outrebounded Baylor, who is bigger than Duke, and they flat out are not afraid to pull the trigger from 3 point range.  Scrappy good team and they may be the Cinderella of this tourney when the dust settles .  Duke has depth issues and it will show, they had to play a full game in round 1, and while so did Yale, Duke is over rated and a very beatable team.

Play 1 Unit on Yale

#848 - St Joes +1.5   *9:57 PM est tip

Let me tell you the A-10 was no joke this year and St Joes ran the gauntlet of the tourney and won it all.  They also have the Player of the Year in the A-10  DeAndre Bremby and he is the best player on the floor here.  Not sold on Cincy even though they have 22 wins, as they lost in 4 OTs to U Conn in their conference tourney.  One thing I look at is road wins /losses and St Joes was 10-2 in road games SU this season and 22-10 ATS overall.  They have the better offense here and I am taking them plus points to win outright.  Cincy lost to Houston, Tulsa and Memphis in their last 3 out of 4 real road games, their lone win at bottom feeder East Carolina.

Play 1 Unit on St Joes

#849 - VT +6.5 to 7   *9:30 EST tip 
One thing is I love when the public is pounding a play and driving the line up, and a look at strength of schedule here tells you all you need to know.  Wins over Miami, Pitt, Florida State and Duke and playing in the ACC makes the Hokies a live dog here.  If you failed to watch hoops Thursday, underdogs are live this time of year and BYU played in a weak conference and although they score a ton of points, the contrasting styles and the defense that VT can play will not make this easy.  VT on a killer spread run and playing good ball despite needing OT to get by Princeton at 17-4 ATS their last 21 games. BYU has not fared well against ACC teams, 2-7 ATS their last 9 attempts.  BYU win, but it won't be easy and VT can knock down free throws as well, which is huge as you saw yesterday.   
Play 1 Unit on Virginia Tech 

#841 - South Dakota State +9.5 to 10   *4:30PM est tip

Yeah Maryland early this season was a potential #1 seed, at least they were in the narrative but some poor play quite frankly down the stretch including an early exit in the Big 10 Tourney where they almost lost to Nebraska as a huge favorite before getting beat in the next round to Mich. State.  South Dakota and fire up 3’s from anywhere and walked through the Summit Conference Tourney and have a neutral floor record of 5-0 this year as well as a winning road record, Maryland will have their hands full here, and many sharp players in Vegas are on this game with SD (pro bettors).  My inside source has this as his top play Friday.  South Dakota also is very pesky on defense and should keep this well within the number.  Classic 12 seed vs 5 seed barn burner.

Play 1 Unit on South Dakota State

#826 - Oklahoma -14   *4 PM est tip

I think this is the blowout of the day.  OU by 20+ here. I rarely lay big points, but round 1 with a great team versus and average is a scenario I will jump on here.  OU is a veteran team on a mission and well coached by Kruger and was a sweet 16 team last year and lost a heartbreaker at the buzzer to West Virginia last Friday in the Big 12 Tourney.  They have 4 starters who have played 100 games together, and Buddy Hield is one of the best players in the nation.  Cal State knocked off New Mexico St to win the WAC Title but their leading scorer averages 12 ppg on the season and despite them having a defense that has kept them in big games and winning games, they have not seen a team like OU that can fly up and down floor with shooters everywhere.  2 years ago this group of seniors lost to North Dakota St in the first round in a shocker as a 5 seed, and trust me they will not overlook this opponent, and OU could quite possibly be a Final 4 team.   Blowout.

Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma

#748 - Seton Hall +1  *9:57 EST Tip

No joke here.  Seton Hall won the Big East and can flat out ball.  Gonzaga played in a horrible conference and beating St Mary’s and BYU as your best wins this year is not a resume I am fond of laying points with.  Seton Hall knocked off 2 of the best teams in the country (Nova and Xavier)  in the Big East Tourney and are locked and loaded and confident.  Seton Hall battle tested all season with better teams, Zaga not as good of an edition as years past.  Gonzaga a public darling every year and are overvalued here, better team getting points.

Play 1 Unit on Seton Hall

#727 - Providence -1.5    *9:50 EST Tip

Kris Dunn the best player on the floor in this game and might be the best player in this region and the Friars have the 2 best guards in this game bar none, and USC is so inconsistent I cannot trust them, especially on defense in this one.  USC lost to anyone good in the PAC 12 all year and beating UCLA in round 1 of the PAC tourney before losing to Utah does not impress me either.   The Friars are a great road team as well and a cover machine away from home.

Play 1 Unit on Providence 

#735 - Fresno State +8.5   *727 est tip Thursday

My Vegas Insider who manages 7 sportsbooks and is on my national radio frequently, alerted me to this game right as the lines open.  The biggest sharp players were pounding this underdog more so than any other on Thursday.  Fresno St won the Mountain West Conference and Utah got blown out of the stadium by Oregon in a very bad showing.  Fresno has an offense that can keep pace and a defense that can slow down Utah enough to cover this number.  Utah has some injury issues to contributors which adds to a serious depth problem for this game.

Play 1 Unit on Fresno State

# 723 - NC Wilmington +10.5   *12:15 est tip

Duke has allowed 80 ppg on neutral sites and on the road this year and lack scoring power and depth.  Their run in this tourney is going to be short lived and while I think they win this game, NC Wilmington is no joke and beat Hofstra for the tourney championship and have scorers all over the floor.  David versus Goliath and they will give big brother in state headline grabber Duke all they want here and not in any frame of mind to lay double digits with Duke against anyone.  Yes step up in  class for Wilmington, but they will put up points against a bad defense and stay within the number.  Duke lost 3 out of their last 4 and almost lost to a bad NC State in the opening round of the ACC tourney.  Duke does not maintain leads well.

Play 1 Unit on NC Wilmington

# 634 - Georgia Tech -3.5   *9 est tip 

Houston lost to a 3 win team in AAC Tourney and did not compete in any big game this season.  GT had a rough start to the season and lost to Virginia in the ACC Tourney, who is a #1 seed in the big dance, but GT went 12-6 in the ACC with some very close losses to some very good teams, most in the NCAA Tourney and GT not disappointed to be here, and at home where they finished the season 4-0 an beat both Pitt and Notre Dame at home.  Houston is far lesser in talent than ACC foes and I expect a BIG GT win tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Tech

BONUS PLAY:  Idaho -2 for a HALF UNIT.   

#558 - North Florida +7.5 to 8   **9 est tip 

Home dog in the NIT Tourney here who lead the nation in 3 pointers this year, making an astounding 402 of them and all 5 starters average double digits in scoring.  Florida was inconsistent all year on offense so this is a bad matchup and one has to wonder the motivation for the Gators here, while this is the Super Bowl for North Florida at home against a team who was 4-8 on the road this season and have covered just 3 out of their last 12 games against the line.  Big step up in class for North Florida, but that offense will keep this close.

Play 1 Unit on North Florida

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY – Vandy +3.5.   Shockers have 2 great experienced guards but the low post and wings belong to Vandy.

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#889 - Purdue +4.5   * 2 est tip 
Yeah yeah, I know Michigan State's Tom Izzo knows how to win the big game, but Purdue is red hot and I am not bucking a team getting over 3 points when they are hitting 56% from the floor in FG% their last 5 games.  Purdue dismantled both Michigan and Illinois playing good defense and scoring lights out and AJ Hammons is no joke for Purdue.  Valentine for MSU will get his points but I am looking at a down to the wire game and Purdue can hit free throws and are big down low when they get motivated.  Close all the way.  The fact MSU really struggled in a grueling matchup with Maryland has the fatigue factor clearly in Purdue's favor who breezed to a win in both their tourney games.
Play 1 Unit on Purdue 

#752 - North Carolina -2  *9 est tip

The Tar Heels have blasted every opponent in this tourney by double digits and have fed off a huge win at Duke coming into this tourney.  NC did not break a sweat yesterday pounding Notre Dame into submission by 29 points and blasting Pitt by 16 points in the opening game.  Virginia's defense is good, however when these two split the regular games NC was able to break 70 points in both games.  North Carolina is loaded at the guard position, they are deep, and have a veteran head coach that can flat out get the most out of his team in crunch time.  Willing to lay a bucket with NC here although the Cavs are ranked higher.  Virginia off a slugfest against Miami last night while NC cruised to a win.  Carolina rolling.  

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina

#748 - Kansas -3.5 to 4 MAX   * 6 est tip 

Gonna take KU here at a game I will be at in person in KC.  This is essentially a home game for Kansas and they did not cover yesterday as the line shot up all day long and struggled down the stretch against a scrappy Baylor team.  However the game WV played against Oklahoma was grueling and physical and a heart attack ending that was a replay review that went their way, and a game like that takes a lot out of you.  Home floor here worth 2 to 3 points for KU and their big man play and depth win it out for them.  Last game they played KU laid 7 and won by 10.  Won't be easy but I expect KU to pull away late.  KU #1 for a reason and have covered 9 out of their last 12 Big 12 games.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

BONUS PLAY - Akron -4 for Half Unit.  Buffalo's defense is deplorable and has allowed 81 ppg their last 5 games.  Akron allowed 63 in their last 5.  

#734 - Ark - Little Rock -3 to 3.5   * 2 EST Tip

UL simply cannot win away from home.  4-11 on the road.  Arkansas Little Rock is 12-4 on the road and the Trojans beat the Cajuns twice this year already. Little Rock has the best record in the nation at 27-4 and they rank 3rd in the nation in scoring defense and yet they are called a bubble team and need to win this game and tourney to get in the dance.  They have 2 solid guards and I like them here by 6-8 points. 

Play 2 Units on Arkansas Little Rock

#528 - Maryland -7.5 to 8   *8:55 est tip

Nebraska is my alma mater.  That said the Huskers got by Wisconsin last night in a dogfight and without Shields, the Huskers are average at best going up against one of the top teams in the nation who are well rested.  Nebraska got by a bad Rutgers team, and grinded it out last night but shot their wad.  Maryland’s guard play vastly better than the Huskers and while I hate to lay over 6 points in any tourney game, a well-rested Maryland team on a mission against a team who does not even have a winning record who is wore out has blowout written all over it.

Play 1 Unit on Maryland 

#570 Kansas -6  *7 est tip

Square as hell to take KU here, but I live here, have seen this team play in person, and Kansas is loaded and truly one of the top 4 teams in the nation.  Baylor managed to beat a so – so Texas team badly and I was not impressed since Texas self-destructed, but KU beat Baylor twice this year and is a different animal in Kansas City in this tourney which is a home game in all aspects.  Kansas loaded, deep, talented at the guard spot and can knock down shots.  Baylor needs to play “big” and try and slow KU down.  Just not in the cards.  Kansas wants this title, they are the batter team and this floor is worth 3 points alone to them. I expect KU to step it up big time and blowout Baylor.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

#565 - Providence +9   *630 est tip

Too many points with Nova being a huge fav.  These two split the regular season and Nova without the service of Ochefu tonight and his rebounding and 10 ppg.  Providence’s offense has been hitting on all cylinders and they can put up enough points here to keep this within the number.  Again nothing comes easy this time of year gents, and this will be a dogfight between 2 old rivals.  Providence beat a good Butler team by 14 to get here. 

Play 1 Unit on Providence

#540 - Cincy -1.5 to -2    **2 PM EST Tip

Cincy dominated U Conn twice this year and numerous players on the Bearcats team have went down the last 2 years to U Conn in this tourney and will dial it in here.  Cincy should own the boards and are off a big time performance against SMU.  Short and Sweet but Cincy’s DEFENSE the key in this game.  Very physical, athletic and well rested.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

Play 1 Unit on Colorado - no time for writeup.  Too many points and Buffs can win SU, and have already beat Zona once!  

#773 - Washington +7.5 to 8   *3 est tip

Not sold on Oregon putting away a team who can score lights out.  Washington blew Stanford up for 91 points yesterday and are rolling.  Oregon can win this game but as you have seen laying big numbers is DEATH in these tourneys, even in the first round.  Washing has a great guard tandem and that is huge.  Oregon beat Washington by 13 two weeks ago, but Oregon away from home where they went 16-0 this year, is a different animal and are not near as dominant. Nothing comes easy guys, Oregon the better team but they have a target on their back. 

Play 2 Units on Washington.  

#719 - Duke -2.5     *2 est tip

Notre Dame embarrassed Duke on national TV a while back, and coach K loves payback.  Duke was lucky to win yesterday and had a meltdown in the second half.  This is a manageable number and Notre Dame really looked bad down the stretch of the season, losing to Miami, GT and Florida State and the Irish are not a good road tea,.  Coach K knows how to win this time of the year, and knows how to exact revenge and motivate his ball club, and nor doubt, Coach K wants to win this tourney.  It gets tougher from here but a win helps Duke big time in the Big Dance Seeding.

Play 1 Unit on Duke

#536 - Kansas State -5   **7 EST TIP

K State close to home with lots of fans at the Sprint Center in KC for this one.  K State playing for NIT berth and need a win here to solidify that.  Okie State has thrown it in, they do not play hard for coach Ford who will be fired soon after this game.  Okie St has lost 6 in a row and 5 of them by double digits, injury riddled all season and tonight, K State has a ton to play for, Okie has nothing,  and Bruce Weber will have them fired up for this one and is the better coach by far.  Okie St gets down early and they just may toss it in early.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas State

BONUS PLAY:  Play a Half Unit on Marquette -6.5  (vs St Johns)  Take Marquette #564

#726 - St. Marys +2   9 est tip 

Not sold on the Zags, they have a lot of wins this year but anyone good they have basically lost to, and they have lost to St Marys twice and no one thinks they can lose 3 times because they are the Zags.   Even with 25 wins the pundants say the Zags have to win this conference championship to get in the big dance.  That tells you something right there.  I doubt St Marys hits 60%+ from the floor like they did against Pepperdine last night in a blowout, but they have shooters all over the place and are the better team. St Marys is 168-17 SU when they exceed 70 points and with 4 players that average double digits on offense, I like their chances tonight after the Zags had to play a grueling games against BYU last night that was in doubt all the way just to get here.

Play 1 Unit on St Marys 

#515 - Green Bay +9   **7 est tip

The last game these 2 played Valpo won by 2 at Green Bay.  Green Bay has won 2 tourney games to get to the semifinals and won yesterday- and Valpo has not played in a week with the bye into this tourney.  One of Valpo’s guards is out for this game (Walker) averaging 10 ppg on a high octane offense.  They also have another guard banged up but is listed as questionable but word is he is playing with a bad ankle and they also have a forward out who is averaging 7 ppg and some rebounds. When teams are idle it takes them some time to get back to square one and that leaves the door open for GB who have lost twice to Valpo this year and are rolling with the better defense in this game.  Backdoor cover here.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay 

Evansville +1 to pick (first open)  
The Purple Aces have dominated teams in this tourney to date.  Northern Iowa off a grueling OT win over #1 seed Wichita State yesterday and it took its toll.  Northern Iowa had trouble knocking down shots and the Shockers could not buy a bucket, and no doubt fatigue will play a role here even though Evansville played the late game. They blew out Indiana State and won both their tourney games here by a combined 36 points.  ALSO the Aces have DOUBLE revenge here as they lost by 3 points and then 2 points to NIU, and the last loss was last week in the regular season finale and fresh in their mind.  Hard to beat a good team 3 times in a month guys, and although NIU is red hot and on an 11-1 run, the pressure is mounting.  Depth is an issue as well for NIU. The Aces are 25-8 on the year and have the fresher legs and better offense and they play just as good as defense as NIU does, and that double revenge factor is huge.  This will be a tight one, Evansville pulls it out late.
Play 1 Unit on Evansville

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#535 - Iowa State +9.5   *  4 est tip 
Yeah Kansas at home and going for an outright title which they already share, but ISU the last team to beat Kansas, and KU has ripped off 10 straight and ISU coming off a rare low scoring win at home against Okie St where they were looking ahead to this one.  4 seniors leave Phog Allen today at 60-2 with their career home record while at KU, but this one will not come easy as ISU leads the Big 12 in scoring and will pull out all the stops and make this interesting.
Play 1 Unit on Iowa State 

#571 - Oregon -1.5   *4 est tip 
Yeah road team here against a good ball club in USC - however USC has trouble from the charity strip and the Ducks do not, 79% their last 5 games and that is huge, and USC has lost 10 in a row to Oregon straight up dating back to 200.  Dana Altmans Ducks are for real, and could tie up the regular season crown with a win and not a tie and they are the #1 seed in the PAC 12 tourney next week regardless but this team has scorers all over the floor, and USC plays bad defense.  Tight one, but I like the Ducks by 4 to 5 on the road here.   Ducks 17-8 ATS their last 25 PAC 12 Games.
Play 1 Unit on Oregon

Northern Iowa +9.5

The Panthers are the hottest team in the Mo Valley and they are playing defense allowing 55 ppg their last 5, and they are 10-1 SU and on a 9-1-1 ATS run and own a win over Wichita St in the last 2 weeks.  Too many points here as WSU is over valued.  Northern Iowa can keep this score low with their defense which always brings big points into play.  Dogs were covering all over the place yesterday in this tourney.

Play 1 Unit on Northern Iowa

#558 - Texas Tech -5   *3 est tip 
K State has a 1-7 road record and just cashed a ticket to stop a 3 game slide to bottom feeder TCU.  Texas Tech at home is a beast and Tubby Smith the better coach in this game.  K State is young and are already locked in the 8th seed for Big 12 Tourney.  Tech who I saw play Kansas in person last week was sluggish in that game and could not buy a basket and still gave mighty KU a game.  I like them here as they are fighting for the Big Dance and a win here would go a long way for them.  Better team, tough home floor against a bad road team.
Play 1 Unit on Texas Tech 

#855 - Ohio U -2   **7 est tip

Absolute joke of a line.  Ohio U has blown out Miami of Ohio already this season.  This line is a joke, because they won by 12 the first time around and were laying 11.5 and now they lay 2 points to a team with 7 home losses this year?   Tourney seeding on the line here for the Bobcats who are 47th in total offense and 24th in FG% from the arc in the NCAA, again laying 2?  Ohio rolls – 84 ppg their last 5 games on offense.  Plus catching Miami of Ohio off a huge upset win over a disinterested Akron team.  Spot bet boys!

Play 1 Unit on Ohio U

BONUS PLAY HALF UNIT – #870  Illinois State -5   - They beat Indiana St by 28 two weeks ago.   

#558 - Missouri State -2   *9:30 EST TIP  (Thursday) 

MSU won both games this season by 9 points each and bear in mind Drake is 0-12 on true road games and 2-12 on the road including neutral floors and Mizzou state has one of the better scoring offenses in the Mo Valley and quite frankly this number should be 5.5 on my power ratings on a neutral floor.  Drake is also out manned big time on the boards here.  Cheap number, lay it.

Play 2 Units on Missouri State 

#578 - Tennessee State -4.5   *7 est tip 

Look for Tenn. St to whack Austin Peay tonight laying a short number.  TSU just Belmont division leader Belmont out of the Ohio Valley Conference by 15 and also have already defeated Austin Peay by 14 in regular season conference action.  Too much firepower for AP to hang with and TSU well rested and prepared to make a run in this tourney.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee State 

#753 - Creighton +3.5   -*9 est tip

Creighton avenging a loss where they didn’t hardly score in the second half against the Friars in their first meeting and this is tale of two teams going in different directions.  Creighton has a huge advantage at coaching here, and I like the run they have been on.  Providence 2-5 their last 7 games SU, and only covered 1 spread in those games.  Creighton rolling with revenge and trying to get to 20 wins and make a case for a tourney bid. 

Play 1 Unit on Creighton

#761 - Nevada +9    * 9 est tip

Yeah a road team, but the Wolfpack should dominate the boards here, and cheap buckets to keep them in this.  Boise State no slouch on offense but play little defense and Nevada averaging 77 ppg their last 5 and they are on a nice and solid 5-1 SU / ATS run and playing some solid ball.  I will gladly take the points here.

Play 1 Unit on Nevada 

#757 - Oregon –2.5 to 3  * 9 est

The Ducks have burnt me a couple of times this season, but Dana Altman knows how to coach in March.  Oregon already pounded UCLA by 14 once this year.  #1 seed for PAC 12 Tourney and regular season title on the line here, all motivation on the side of the Ducks and the better team and better coach is all Ducks here.  UCLA off a tough loss to Stanford and many say after that game the dejection of the team was huge.  Like the Ducks to roll here.

Play 1 Unit on Oregon

#550 - Air Force +4 to 4.5  - 9 est tip 

Home dog that should win outright.  A 12-4 team at home, avenging a loss to Utah St earlier this season.  They have beaten some of the conference’s best teams in here, Boise St, New Mexico, UNLV and Utah St is a bad road team laying a number over 3 here as they are 4-8 ATS on the road this year.

Play 1 Unit on Air Force

#719 - Kansas -2   9 est tip 
 
I would fade Kansas here, and look at this like the Seton Hall game yesterday, HOWEVER I went in person to Kansas game on Saturday and quite frankly if Texas Tech could hit a shot, especially early to save their life they would have won that game and Bill Self was not happy, despite tying for a Big 12 crown, and Kansas can still win the regular season crown outright and #1 seed if they win out and everyone knows Bill Self's ability to coach this time of year.  Texas off a huge upset win against Oklahoma who self destructed the last 7 minutes of the game Saturday against Texas.  Let down spot for Texas and Kansas will be hungry and ready to play and KU's bench depth is no joke.  Since KU played poorly Saturday there was little celebrating and KU owns Texas and will not take this lightly.
 
Play 1 Unit on Kansas - might be a square bet but they want that Big 12 crown all to themselves so PLENTY of motivation here. 

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#825 - Duke +1   - 2 EST Tip  
Two things at play here and I am making this short and sweet.  Who better to coach a team in late Feb gearing up for tourney time?  I will tell you - Coach K.  While thin on the bench Duke's Top 6 is vastly better than Pitt, even on the road.  I have a 4 point overlay on this game against the spread.  And when has Pitt ever if rarely won a big game?  Piutt 0-6 against ranked opponents.  Enough said - square bet or not I am taking the better team
Play 1 Unit on Duke

# 577 - Kent State -1.5   3:30 est tip 
Going with Kent St here who is a playing a team who is 3-8 ATS their last 11 Saturday games and scoring just 58 ppg on offense their last 5 games.  Miami of Ohio just 9-7 SU at home and a also a team with just 1 road win all year.  Too much offense for Miami of Ohio to handle and trade punches with a very short number here gents.  Hidden Gem. 
Play 1 Unit on Kent State

#556 - Evansville -4   2 est tip 
The Purple Aces at home here where they are 13-2 and score 80 ppg, playing Northern Iowa who manages just 66 ppg on the road.  Northern Iowa has been on a roll their last 10 but has played weak sisters including Drake and bradley and you have a unique situation where Evansville who has a Senior heavy class playing on Senior Day on a strong home floor and avenging a loss to Northern Iowa earlier this month.  NIU meets their match here as their defensive  numbers the last 5 games which are solid, play an elite offense on their home floor that are highly motivated. Evansville tied with Illinois St for #2 seed in Mo Valley Tourney and ISU has Wichita State today so a win would secure that seed as their is a high chance ISU will fall.  Huge Game here. 
Play 1 Unit on Evansville

#544 - Miami -3  2 est tip 
Louisville comes calling and Hurricanes are tied for 2nd place with the Cards in the ACC.  Cards on post season ban and they want this one and all the pressure on them and emotional but I like Miami at home here.  Louiville a bad road bet just 3-7 ATS ands 4-5 SU and Miami is a beast at home with 1 loss all year there and they are 10-3-1 ATS at home.  Miami plays great defense at home and I expect a thin Louisville team with depth that have foul issues as usual.
Play 1 Unit on Miami

#731 - SMU -4.5   7 est tip

Memphis just lost to the worst team in the conference and do not forget SMU is the best team in this conference and lead the conference in scoring and FG%, which is amazingly 50% on the year.  SMU playing every game like it is their last with no conference tourney and no post season because they are banned this year.  They can win the regular season crown in AAC but need this win to keep pace with Temple for that so plenty of motivation on many levels with a very good basketball team who can flat out light it up.  I have this at 8 points on a power rating, so I will lay this number.

Play 2 units on SMU

#541 - Mississippi State +12  7 est tip

Yeah Texas AM off a huge OT win against Kentucky Saturday – I had them as a Top Play.  I fade them now, against a MSU team off back to back upset wins over Bama and Vandy and Miss. St playing a great brand of hoops right now.  Many teams who are secured in the NCAA Tourney are letting off the throttle slightly and you can see that in the daily box scores, and resting yup for a conference tourney run as well as NCAA run.  Texas AM is locked in for NCAA Big Dance action and off a huge emotional and draining win I will take the generous points with a more motivated team.

Lay 1 Unit on Miss St

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#739 -Kansas -1.5
Not getting in front of Bill Self and the Jayhawks this time of year, especially with the Big 12 title on the line. Baylor defense is their biggest issue, allowing over 80 ppg their last 5.  Kansas destroyed Baylor back in early January by a score of 102-74 and KU is 8-1 ATS their last 9 trips to Waco.  KY loaded and Ellis is playing.  Bill Self knows how to win this time of the season.
Play 1 Unit on Kansas
BONUS Half Unit Play - #755 - UNLV +6.5 (Rebels scoring in bunches and will keep pace here and already beat Boise St this season.)

#524 - West Virginia -5 to 5.5    9 est tip 
Iowa State struggles against good teams that play good defense.  West Virginia already displayed that with a win in Ames over ISU, and the Mountaineers are averaging wins at home by 23 ppg and allow just 58 ppg on defense at home while scoring 81.  Iowa State is on a a brutal scheduling spot here and this is the toughest road trip in the Big 12 to make, a brutal road trip, and for ISU who is 0-3 after a home loss in revenge to the same team. It should be noted that ISU was outrebounded by TCU on Saturday and TCU is the worst rebounding team in the Big 12.  West Virginia got blowout out for the second time this season at home which is rare against mighty Oklahoma, but I watched that game and they had it tied up with less than 8 minutes left before they imploded. Home court worth 3 here and West Virginia has a TON to play for as they are in a tie for the Big 12 lead. Morgantown bites ISU tonight along with a full court pressing defense of Huggy Bears team.
Play 1 Unit on West Virginia  

#843 - WICHITA ST.-11.5

Indiana St is a paltry 1-8-1 ATS in conference games their last 10, and are currently on a losing streak of six in a row ATS. WSU won the first meeting in Wichita 82-62. WSU is 12-3 ATS in conference play and 5-1 ATS on the road their last 6 games.  After losing at home to Northern Iowa the Shockers have ripped off 2 wins by 30 and 29 points, and as the Mo Valley Tourney approaches you can expect WSU to continue to dominate.

Play 1 Unit on Wichita St

#578 - Texas A&M (pk) vs Kentucky - 6:30 est 

A&M just broke a vicious four game skid with a dominant 15-point blowout of Ole Miss Tuesday Night. They didn’t have to travel this week and had a full three days off in between games to get ready for their biggest game of the season, a home tilt with perennial blue blood legend Kentucky at home on Saturday to stay in striking distance of an SEC regular season title.

While most people believe that Texas A&M was not as good as their peak #5 ranking, they are also not as bad as their current ranking outside the top 25. The starting five of Danuel House, Jalen Jones, Tyler Davis, Alex Caruso, and Anthony Collins is as good as most teams in the country. They also have depth and size off the bench in the front court.

All three starting forwards (House, Jones, and Davis) average double digit scoring and at least five rebounds per game.

The Aggies only shoot 36% from 3-point range but Kentucky also struggle from deep range and Texas A&M is one of the few teams that may be able to match the Wildcats strength for strength.

Kentucky enters this game red hot on a four game win streak but they just played at home on Thursday night and now must travel across the country with the quick turnaround to play a talented team with extra rest and extra motivation in their biggest game of the season.

Texas A&M has no excuses here. They have the advantage of being at home all week preparing for this game and they come in with momentum as they just beat a 16 win Ole Miss team by 15 on Tuesday. Look for Texas A&M to play with a ton of energy and the crowd to be energized as the Aggies get back into the SEC mix with a huge win over Kentucky.

2 Units on Texas AM TOP PLAY (PICK EM) 

#599 - Kansas -5  6 EST

Already beat K State by 5.5 and yes K State can be a Giant Killer at home however Kansas playing hard for #1 seed in Big 12 Tourney in KC in 2 weeks as they are tied with West Virginia for the lead eright now and WV has a tough game today with OU.  Kansas is better and deep that K State and off a 27 point win over Okie State and they will not lay down in this Sunflower Showdown rival game.  

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

#552 -  Louisville -6.5 vs Duke  Noon EST 

I will be the first to admit that when  Louisville announced their postseason ban that the Cardinals may just fade away this season as their top two players are both grad transfers in Damion Lee and Trey Lewis. Yet the Cardinals still seem to be remaining positive, upbeat, and motivated to win the ACC regular season title which they control their own destiny to do so.

Wednesday they got down 12 points early to Syracuse and were on a two game losing streak and it looked like they may just pack it in. Yet the fought hard and actually ended up blowing out Syracuse in the 2nd half. After the game I remember seeing all the players smiling and happy around each other. At this point it appears that as long as they are in the hunt to win the ACC they are going to play hard.

Duke is coming off their biggest win of the season, a last second win at arch rival UNC on Wednesday. Yet the game was really tough and the one take away from that game was the reminder that this Duke team is only playing six guys right now due to injuries and thus with so little depth it is hard for them to have sustained success continuously each and every game.  Opened at 4 and shot up - for a reason.  Depth will kill Duke today. 

Louisville is deep, motivated and has the exact attacking style of play that could get Duke in foul trouble and cause some real issues for this short handed Duke team. It is also hard not to have a letdown after such an amazing win at UNC.  While this one may look close on paper it smells like an easy win for Louisville in this spot.

Louisville 1 Unit

Missouri St +22

The Shockers in free fall and not in good form and I am not laying 22 against a team who has almost a .500 record just because Wichita St "is due" for a huge win.  Sloppy play and a big number, in a climate where big dogs are covering like madmen, which they do this time of the season, nothing comes easy especially when you are pushing for a win of any kind.  WSU struggling BIG TIME on offense and laying a number like this?  

Play 1 Unit on Missouri St