6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Lions -6.5
The Key: Baltimore hasn't lost by more than 6 points since a 49-27 season-opening defeat in Denver, yet it is catching 6.5 points? Clearly odds makers don't think the Ravens, who rank 29th in total offense, can keep pace with a Detroit team that ranks 3rd in total offense while averaging nearly 100 more yards per game than the Ravens. I completely agree. The Detroit offense struggled last week without Reggie Bush in the snow, but that does well for us here as the Lions are 14-3 ATS after being outgained by 200 yards or more since 1992. The key to Detroit covering this number is not turning it over. The Lions have struggled with turnovers lately but should be able to do a better job of taking care of the football against a Baltimore team that hasn't come up with many takeaways. The Ravens have been almost been a dead fade late in the season at 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in December. Lay the points.

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Month on Steelers +3
The Key: Cincinnati has not been the same dominant force on the road. In fact, it has won by more than three points just once in its last nine road games. It's been a very disappointing season for the Steelers, but they're not about to roll over for anybody, especially at home against a division rival. The Steelers lost the season's first meeting at Cincinnati. However, home teams that are out for revenge and are also coming off an upset defeat are 165-103 ATS since 1983. Zooming in, this system is 29-14 ATS the last five seasons. In addition, you want to fade road favorites that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team that has a losing record. Doing so has produced a 60-29 ATS mark since 1983. Pittsburgh is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with one of these losses coming by only three points. Take the points.

6* Late Afternoon Annihilator on Raiders +5.5
The Key: The Raiders will be out for revenge at home after losing the first meeting 24-7 in Kansas City. That was a rare divisional win for the Chiefs, who are just 1-9 in their last 10 against AFC West foes. The Raiders are 3-1 in their last 4 against the Chiefs and have won or lost by fewer than 5.5 points in 11 of the last 16 meetings. Oakland has been a terrific investment in bounce-back spots at 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS loss. Also, you want to fade road teams after a win of 21 points or more if they're matched up against an opponent that was held to 3 points or less in the first half last game. Doing so has produced a 35-11 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. It is also worth mentioning that the underdog is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Take the points.

6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Chargers +10.5
The Key: The Chargers aren't getting the respect they deserve here. They have won or lost by fewer than 10.5 points in 15 straight and 22 of 23 games. The Chargers have also performed well in Denver where they are 5-3 in the last eight meetings with the losses coming by only 3, 1, and 7 points. The Chargers are 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings and 5-0-4 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Denver. Also, the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. This game means way more to a San Diego team that is hanging on to postseason hopes by the skin of its teeth. Denver's focus right now is getting healthy. Take the points.

6* MNF *CA$H COW* on Bears +1.5
The Key: The Bears have won four of six at Soldier Field, and I expect them to continue their solid play at home in a game they absolutely must have. The Cowboys have dropped four of six on the road, and their league-worst defense figures to be up against it tonight. The Bears are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league, and that doesn't bode well for Dallas, which is 0-7 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons versus teams that average 375.0 yards per game or more. It has lost to these teams by an average of 12.2 points. The Bears have had defensive struggles of their own, but the stop unit has performed considerably better at home. Plus, Dallas hasn't been able to take advantage. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in the second half of the season the last two seasons versus teams that allow 5.65 yards per play or more. They have lost to these teams by an average of 6.6 points. It is also worth noting that the Cowboys are a dismal 1-7 ATS in their last eight Monday nighters. Bet the Bears.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Saints -3
The Key: As if getting taken behind the woodshed Monday night isn't enough motivation, the Saints were swept by Carolina last season. Look for an extremely motivated New Orleans squad to bounce-back strong at home where it has been nearly unstoppable. The Saints are 6-0 at home on the season and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games. They are 17-4 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 ATS in home games following a road loss during this span, winning by an average score of 36.3 to 14.9 in this situation. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 250 total yards in their previous game, 7-0 ATS in home games after being held to 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on 49ers -2.5
The Key: The last two times the 49ers have played Seattle they have been completely and utterly embarrassed. Those losses are all the fuel the reigning NFC champs will need here. Those losses were both in Seattle. Things have gone much differently when these teams have met in San Francisco. The 49ers have won four straight at home in the series by an average of 13.8 points. In addition, San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 ATS under Harbaugh in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that carry a win percentage greater than 75%. The 49ers have defeated these teams by an average score of 29.1 to 20.4. There's nothing easy about playing on the road in a short week, especially when up against a team that is hungry to pay you back. Seattle took New Orleans apart, but the Seahawks are on a 5-18 ATS slide following a home blowout win of 21 points or more. Lay the points.

6* Sunday NFL Early Annihilator on Bengals -6
The Key: The Colts haven't been playing good football since beating Denver Oct. 20. They have played five games since and were blown out by St. Louis and Arizona and fortunate to win their other three games against Tennessee (twice) and Houston. I see another blowout loss coming as they go up against a Cincinnati team that has been tough as nails at home. The Bengals are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 home games, winning these by 14.7 points on average. Lay the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Jaguars +3
The Key: It's been a miserable season for Houston, which entered the campaign with Super Bowl aspirations. After a loss to the Jaguars that they called "embarrassing", the Texans got up for New England but blew a 10-point lead and lost an 11th straight game. I think it will be very difficult for Houston to recover from that loss even in a revenge spot because of the weight of this trying season. While Houston is completely deflated, Jacksonville enters with momentum having won back-to-back games and 3 of its last 4. The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus division opponents. The Texans are just 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage of 25% or worse under Kubiak. Take the points.

6* MNF *CA$H COW* on Seahawks -4.5
The Key: Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints haven't been the same team on the road where they have lost two of their last three and were fortunate to defeat the Buccaneers and Falcons. The Saints are just 6-8 in their last 14 road games, and their road struggles should continue against a Seattle squad that has won 13 straight at home. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 28.0 to 18.0. They are also 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 7 yards per pass or more over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 6 yards per play or more over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 rushing yards per carry or more over the last 3 seasons. Seattle is also a perfect 9-0 ATS under coach Carroll as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, winning these games by an average score of 34.7 to 11.8. Lay the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Chiefs +6
The Key: The Chiefs are 0-2 SU & ATS since a 9-0 start. However, December home dogs or pickems that check in off two or more consecutive losses ATS are 92-48 ATS since 1983. In addition, you want to back home teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent if they check in off an upset loss. That's because doing so has produced a 165-102 ATS mark since 1983. The Kansas City defense needs to bounce back here and history is in its favor. The Chiefs are 24-7 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992, and they have held teams to just 22.4 points in these games. You have to like their chances of keeping this one within the number if they can hold the Broncos to only 22 points. Keep in mind they held Denver to 17 points when they hosted the Broncos last season. Also, teams headed up by John Fox are 1-10 ATS all-time following an extremely close road loss of 3 points or less. Take the points.

6* AFC East Annihilator on Jets -1
The Key: The Jets have lost back-to-back games on the road to fall below .500, but they are still very much in the playoff hunt. I expect them to rebound at home where they are 4-1 SU & ATS this season and have wins over the Patriots and Saints. Miami hasn't been the same team on the road. It is 0-3 SU & ATS in its last 3 and 2-7 SU & ATS in its last 9 road games. The Dolphins are one of the worst offensive teams in football, and they'll struggle to move the ball on a New York stop unit that ranks 9th in the NFL in total defense. The Jets boast the 8th-ranked rushing attack in the league, and it should be able to find daylight against a Miami defense that allows 123.8 ypg on the ground (25th in the NFL). The Jets are 25-12 ATS versus Miami since 1992, and I expect them to build on this trend Sunday.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Texans +9
The Key: It's been a miserable season for the Texans, who were thought to be a Super Bowl contenders entering the campaign. Still, they are not about to roll over for a New England squad that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. This will be a tough encore for New England following last week's emotionally and physically draining overtime victory against Denver. A letdown is inevitable. Plus, the Pats have struggled on the road where they have lost three straight and haven't won by more than seven points this season. Houston ranks No. 1 in the NFL in total defense as well as No. 1 against the pass. The Pats will get nothing easy against Houston's stop unit. Offensively, the Texans should find success running the football against a New England defense that ranks 31st in the league against the run. Underdogs or pickems that check in with 7 or more consecutive losses, provided they are playing in the second half of the season, are 89-41 ATS since 1983. You also want to fade favorites that have a winning record on the season and are coming off an upset win at home. Doing so has produced a 73-34 ATS mark since 1983, a 22-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons and a 17-3 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

7* Thanksgiving *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens -2.5
The Key: The Ravens have been an unbelievable home team over the years. In fact, they are 29-4 in their last 33 and 39-8 in their last 47 home games. At home, where they are allowing only 10.8 ppg this season, and out for revenge for last month's 19-16 loss at Pittsburgh, I expect the defending Super Bowl champs to rise to the occasion. The Steelers are just 2-4 on the road this season, giving up 24.5 ppg in these contests. Their road woes go back much further as they are a soft 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games. The Steelers haven't swept the regular-season series since 2008. Plus, the Ravens are 16-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less under coach Harbaugh, winning these games by an average score of 26.0 to 13.7. Lay the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Raiders +9.5
The Key: You want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won two of their last three games if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a losing team in the seconds half of the season. That's because doing so has produced a 51-19 ATS mark since 1983. This system tightens up to 21-5 ATS the last 10 seasons. In addition, Dallas has been a terrible investment in the second half of the season. The Cowboys are 6-15 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons, including 0-6 ATS during this span when at home and matched up against a team with a losing record. They have lost these six by an average score of 27.3 to 25.0. It is also worth noting that the Cowboys are just 9-19 ATS as a favorite under coach Garrett. The Raiders are still in the mix for the AFCs second wild-card slot despite last week's loss to Tennessee. They have been an extraordinary bounce-back bet of late at 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss and 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Dallas has arguably the worst defense in the NFL this season, and it has been getting gashed on the ground lately. Oakland has the running attack to take advantage. Take the points.

6* MNF *CA$H COW* on Redskins +6
The Key: While the season hasn't gone as planned for Washington, the Redskins have remained competitive at home where they are 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two. Going back to last season, Washington is 6-2 in its last eight regular-season home games with only one of the losses coming by more than six points, a seven-point loss to Detroit Sept. 22. The Redskins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games versus a team with a winning road record. You also want to fade road favorites that have a win percentage of 60-75% that have covered the spread in six or seven of their last eight games and are matched up against a team with a losing record. That's because doing so produced a 36-12 ATS mark since 1983. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by 5.6 points on average but have won by only 2.1 points on average. This system is a near-perfect 5-1 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Patriots +3
The Key: The Patriots lost a close one at Carolina Monday, but I expect them to respond at home where they are 5-0 this season and 4-0 ATS in their last 4. New England has been terrific in bounce-back spots at 30-12-1 ATS in its last 43 games following a loss. Playing on a short week can be tough, but the Pats have managed well, going 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 times they've played Sunday following a Monday night game. New England has been a tremendous underdog investment under coach Belichick at 40-20 ATS in the role. The Pats are also on a 20-8 ATS run as a home underdog. They are 6-0 ATS against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons, defeating them by an average score of 36.2 to 16.2. The Patriots are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 versus Denver, winning these by 21.0 points on average. They are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 home games versus the Broncos, winning these by 26.3 points on average. This includes a 31-21 win over the Broncos last season. Manning and Brady have squared off 13 times. Brady is 9-4 in those matchups. Take the points.

6* AFC North Annihilator on Browns -1
The Key: Last week's 37-27 upset win over Detroit puts Pittsburgh in a negative situation this week. Consider that fading road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are off an upset win by 10 points or more has produced a 48-21 ATS record since 1983 as long as the game takes place after the first month of the season. The road has been severely unkind to the Steelers in recent years. In fact, Pittsburgh is 6-15 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons. The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in road games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons, losing these by an average score of 27.7 to 22.0. They are also 0-6 ATS under coach Tomlin in road games after scoring 30 points or more last game. The Browns have been very competitive at home where they are 3-2 this season and have won 7 of their last 11. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams that have a losing road record. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Steelers, winning last season's home meeting 20-14. Take Cleveland.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Dolphins +4.5
The Key: The Panthers are primed for a letdown following Monday night's thrilling win over New England. Plus, Miami has been extremely competitive at home where it is 3-2 and hasn't lost by more than 3 points. Miami hasn't lost by more than 3 points in its last 7 home games. Looking back further, the Dolphins have lost by more than 3 points just 3 times in their last 19 home games. Miami has struggled since a 3-0 start, but it is 6-0 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons when checking in with losses in 4 or 5 out of its last 6 games. It has won by an average score of 24.2 to 11.0 in this situation. The Dolphins are also 4-0 SU and ATS all-time versus Carolina, winning these by 7.8 points on average. Miami has wins over Indy and Cincy - two of the top teams in the AFC - so it has shown it can take down top-notch competition. We'll take the points as Carolina's 6-game win streak is in serious jeopardy.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Falcons +10
The Key: Atlanta is having a season from hell, but it will not lay down for hated division rival New Orleans. The Falcons will treat this game as their Super Bowl. New Orleans has not been the same force on the road where it has been defeated or won by fewer than 6.5 points in 6 of its last 7 and 21 of its last 26 games. Atlanta, on the other hand, has been tremendous at home where it has lost by more than 5 points just twice in its last 21 games. The home team has had the edge in this rivalry of late, going 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. In addition, Atlanta has won or lost by fewer than 10 points in 10 of the last 11 meetings overall and 5 straight at home. You want to back home teams in the second half of the season if they have a win percentage of 25% or less, have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and are matched up against a team with a winning record. That's because doing so has produced a 75-39 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Panthers -1
The Key: Look for the red-hot Panthers to keep right on rolling against a New England team that has struggled on the road. The Patriots are 2-2 on the road and could be 1-3 or even 0-4. They needed a field goal in the closing seconds to pull out a win at Buffalo, and they needed to hold off Falcons in the final in Atlanta. They were fortunate Atlanta scored only one touchdown on six trips inside the 20 that day. The Bills and Falcons are 6-15 combined and don't have overwhelming defenses. The Patriots have lost their last two road games against the Bengals and Jets - teams with Top 10 defensive units. They face arguably the best defense in the league tonight. The Panthers rank No. 1 in total and scoring defense with 283.3 yards and 12.8 points per game allowed. They have been tough as nails against the run and the pass. The Patriots haven't been the same offensive juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing either. They put up big points in their last game against Pittsburgh, but the Steelers are very mediocre defensively this year. The New England stop unit has struggled to stop the run, which means it will likely struggle to slow down Carolina's Top 10 running attack. You want to take all teams when the line is +3 to -3 following a close road win of 3 points or less, provided they have a winning percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 35-11 ATS mark since 1983 and a perfect 8-0 ATS tally the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that New England is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Broncos -7.5
The Key: I'm not buying the Chiefs as a Super Bowl contender, which I strongly believe Denver is. The Chiefs have benefited from a favorable schedule and a +15 turnover margin. They are solid defensively, but I don't believe they are good enough to tame Denver's explosive offense. Kansas City won't be able to rely on its defense to make big plays in this one. Manning has just 6 INTs on the season. Kansas City's offense will have to do something, and I don't see it doing enough. The Chiefs rank 24th in the NFL in total offense, and they managed only 210 total yards while giving up 470 in their last game against Buffalo. Kansas City's bye week might not be a positive thing in this case, either, as it squashes its momentum. Denver is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Broncos are also 6-0 ATS off a road win against a division rival under coach John Fox, who is recovering from surgery but still has a hand on this team. The Chiefs have been crushed by good passing teams lately, going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus teams that average 260 passing yards or more per game. They have lost to these teams by an average score of 25.7 to 11.1. Denver is on an 18-6 ATS run in home games versus teams that give up 17.0 points or less per game. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 27.5 to 17.3.

6* NFL Early Annihilator on Bengals -6
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back overtime losses on the road, and further fueled by a 17-6 defeat at Cleveland in the season's first meeting, the Bengals will show no mercy here. Cincy is happy to be home where it is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five. It has won these by 13.4 points on average. The Bengals are 4-0 in their last four and 8-1 in their last nine home games against the Browns. These eight victories have come by an average of 7.0 points so we are getting the Bengals at a good number. You also want to back any team that is out for revenge for a loss where it was held to less than 9 points if it is coming off a loss of 3 points or less to a division opponent. That's because doing so has produced a 36-13 ATS mark since 1983. This rare system tightens up to 7-2 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Lay the number.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on Bills pk
The Key: The Jets haven't won consecutive games all season going 0-4 following a win. They have also struggled on the road where they are 1-3. Buffalo has been very competitive at home where it has wins over red-hot Carolina and the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens. It has also given New England, Cincinnati and Kansas City all they wanted at Ralph Wilson Stadium. They outgained the Chiefs 470-210 in their last home game but were doomed by a 99-yard pick six and a fumble return TD. The yardage numbers tell the real story as they moved the ball comfortably against a very good Kansas City defense. They should be able to move it against the Jets as well. And, I don't expect New York to come up with as many big defensive plays as Kansas City did. After all, the Jets have forced only seven turnovers all season. Buffalo lost the season's first meeting and will be out for revenge as a result. The Bills won 28-9 in last season's home meeting against the Jets, and I expect them to take care of business again. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a road loss and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games taking place in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 24.0 points per game or more. You also want to fade teams that have a winning record that check in off an upset win at home. Doing so has produced a 148-78 (65.5%) ATS record since 1983. This system is already 5-1 ATS this season. Take Buffalo.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Titans +3
The Key: Indianapolis has not been the same offensively since losing Reggie Wayne. The Colts should have lost to Houston as they were down 24-6 late in the third quarter, and they were stomped 38-8 by St. Louis last week. I expect their struggles to continue on the road in a short week against a Tennessee squad that ranks 9th in total defense and 8th against the pass. The Titans will be extremely motivated here as a win gets them within a game of first place in the division. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a capable backup, and Tennessee's run game should find success against an Indy defense that ranks 26th against the run. Tennessee has won, been tied at the end of regulation or lost by less than 3 points in six of its last seven home games against Indy. The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +3
The Key: The Buccaneers fit perfectly into a very lucrative situation that says to take underdogs or pickems after 7 or more consecutive losses if they are playing in the second half of the season. Doing so has produced an 88-41 (68.2%) ATS mark since 1983. Tampa Bay has been more competitive than its record leads you to believe. The Bucs have 4 losses of 3 points or less to the Jets, Saints, Cardinals and Seahawks - teams with winning records. Tampa Bay is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 against the Dolphins. It won 3 of these straight up with the lone loss coming by only 2 points. Take the points.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Chargers +7
The Key: Denver hasn't been the same team on the road where it struggled to beat the Cowboys and lost to the Colts. San Diego, on the other hand, has been formidable at home where it hasn't lost by more than 3 points and has wins over the Cowboys and Colts by 9 and 10 points, respectively. San Diego has won or lost by 7 points or less in 14 of its last 17 games against the Broncos. The Chargers have lost by more than 7 points just 4 times in their last 33 home games. The Bolts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record. Take the points.

6* NFL Line Mistake on Falcons +5.5
The Key: Odds makers are giving Seattle too much respect in Atlanta Sunday. The Seahawks have been far from dominant on the road where they have only one win by more than 5 points this season. Atlanta has enjoyed one of the best home field advantages in the NFL in recent years, and it has just one loss by more than 5 points at home this season. Seattle has won by more than 5 points on the road just 10 times in its last 57 road games. Atlanta, meanwhile, has lost by more than 5 points just once in its last 20 home games. In addition, Atlanta has won or lost by less than 3 points in 6 straight meetings with Seattle. Atlanta was kicked last week at Carolina, but it is 11-1 ATS all-time under coach Smith after a loss by 10 or more points. It has won by an average score of 31.5 to 20.6 in this situation. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Packers -1
The Key: The Packers lost to the Bears Monday night with Aaron Rodgers going down with a broken collarbone early in that game. Rodgers will miss this game, but don't count on the Packers losing two in a row at Lambeau. Green Bay is 29-3 in its last 32 regular-season games at home as well as 16-4 all-time in home games against the Eagles. The Bears haven't played particularly well on the defensive side of the football this season, but they know the Packers well. Plus, they benefited from Rodgers injury as Seneca Wallace was thrown to the wolves. The Eagles aren't nearly as familiar with Green Bay, and they'll see a much more prepared Wallace this week. In addition, Philadelphia has been dreadful defensively, ranking dead last in the NFL at 419.3 ypg allowed. Nick Foles had a career day last week, but I expect him to come back down to earth against a Green Bay stop unit that ranks 15th in the league at 345 ypg allowed. That defense will be bolstered by the expected return of Clay Matthews. The Packers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss, 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record. The Eagles are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall, 7-19-1 ATS in their 27 games versus a team with a winning record and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win. Green Bay also has a significant advantage on special teams. It is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games in the second half of the season versus poor kickoff coverage teams that allow 24 yards or more per return. It has won by an average score of 37.3 to 17.5 in this situation. The Eagles are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons versus excellent punt return teams that average more than 12 yards per return. They have lost by an average score of 30.3 to 17.8 in this situation. Take Green Bay.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Vikings +3
The Key: Washington hasn't won consecutive games this season and will have a tough time trying to do so tonight on the road on a short week. The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Minnesota is 1-7, but it is a better team that its record leads you to believe. Consider that three of its defeats have come in the final minute so it's not a stretch to say the Vikes could be 4-4. Washington has struggled on the road where it is 1-3 SU and ATS this season. These losses have come by 18, 15 and 24 points. The Skins have been a notoriously poor favorite at 53-82 ATS since 1992. They've also been a poor investment against losing teams at 13-28-3 ATS in their last 44 against such opponents. Teams headed up by Mike Shanahan are 8-22 ATS when facing teams with a win percentage of 25% or less since 1992. This trend dips to 2-10 ATS if the game is being played in the second half of the season. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bears +11
The Key: The Bears are missing some key pieces but an extra week of preparation gives them an excellent opportunity to give the Packers a game. You want to take underdogs or pickems that carry a win percentage of 51-60% following an upset loss on the road as doing so has produced a 30-9 ATS mark since 1983. You also want to fade favorites of 10.5 points or more that carry a win percentage of 60-75% if they have covered the spread in at least two of their last three games as doing so has produced a 72-36 ATS mark since 1983. The Chicago defense has struggled, giving up 6.4 yards per play. However, odds makers have consistently overvalued the Packers at home against such defenses. In fact, Green Bay is just 2-10 ATS in home games versus teams that allow 6.0 yards or more per play since 1992. The Packers have won these games but only by an average score of 27.8 to 24.6. Green Bay has dominated the Bears in recent years, but winning by this big of a margin has been rare. Consider that Chicago has won or lost by fewer than 11 points in 13 of the last 17 meetings. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Texans +2.5
The Key: The Colts upset Denver last time out. However, you want to fade road teams that are off an upset win at home if they have a winning record on the season. Doing so has produced a 102-52 ATS mark since 1983, and this system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Most of the times teams come out of their bye week better than they were when they went in, but I don't believe that will be the case for Indy, simply because it won't have leading receiver Reggie Wayne on the field. With one less weapon to worry about, Houston's suffocating defense, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL overall and No. 1 against the pass, will really be able to swarm the Colts. The season hasn't gone as planned for the Texans, but they are clearly better than their record looks. They played the 8-0 Chiefs to a 1-point game on the road last time out. They also took the 7-1 Seahawks to OT. If they find a way to win those games, they're sitting at 4-3. I also can't fail to mention how valuable home field has been in this series. The home team is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 12.8 points. Take the points.

6* NFL Situational Annihilator on Titans -3
The Key: Situationally speaking, this is a great spot for Tennessee and a bad spot for St. Louis. The Rams put everything they had into Monday's game against Seattle, and they came up short. That loss makes it very difficult for them to be ready to go here on just 5 days' rest. Tennessee, on the other hand, hasn't played since Oct. 20 so it has a huge edge in terms of health and preparation. You want to take road favorites when they are playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as doing so has produced a 36-13 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. These teams have won by an average of 10.3 points. You also want to take road favorites after 2 or more consecutive losses if they carry a win percentage of 40-49% and are matched up against a losing team. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark since 1983. These teams have been favored by 3.1 points on average and has won by 9.8 points on average. This system is a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +6.5
The Key: Every time the Jets have got knocked down this season, they have responded the following week. They are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS following a loss this season, and I expect them to respond once again Sunday. You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that trailed in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half when they're matched up against an opponent that scored 25 points or more in three straight games. That's because doing so has produced a 28-8 ATS mark since 1983. Teams fitting this system have been underdogs of 6.8 points on average but have lost by only 1.2 points on average. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last five seasons. The Jets have been tremendous defensively, ranking 6th in the league in total defense with 315.0 ypg allowed. The Saints are one of the top offensive teams in the league, but I don't see them hitting on all cylinders on the road in an outdoor venue against this defense. New Orleans has lost or won by less than 6.5 points in 5 of its last 6 and 20 of its last 25 road games. Take the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Dolphins +3
The Key: Miami has lost four in a row since a 3-0 start. However, the two home losses during this stretch came by just three and two points. The Bengals are coming off a blowout win at home over the Jets, but they haven't been the same team on the road where they are 2-2 and haven't won by more than three points. Miami has had Cincy's number, going 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings, including 2-0 SU and ATS in the last two. The Dolphins won last season's meetings in Cincinnati 17-13. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games while the Bengals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games. Also, you want to fade road teams that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they're a good team (60-75% win pct) playing a team with a losing record. That's because doing so has produced a 71-34 ATS record since 1983. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Rams +13
The Key: Seattle is clearly one of the best teams in the NFL, but it is being overvalued as a result. The Seahawks check in off a 34-22 win at Arizona, but they are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a win of 10 points or more over a division rival. The Rams lost starting QB Sam Bradford last week and now must turn to Kellen Clemens. I expect the eight-year pro to play well tonight. The fact St. Louis reached out to Brett Favre's agent is a slap in the face of Clemens, and it provides him with extra motivation to play well. The Rams are 2-1 at home this season, and they have won two of their last three home games against the Seahawks. They pulled off a 19-13 upset win at home against the Seahawks last season and also played Seattle to a 7-point game on the road. The Rams have won or lost by 10 points or less in five of the last seven meetings. The Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 division games and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Year on Vikings +10
The Key: The Vikings were embarrassed on national TV Monday night, and they'll be out to save face here. They will be lacking no confidence as they go up against a Green Bay squad they defeated 37-34 at home last season. Christian Ponder is back under center, and he'll be very motivated to show the organization that they should not have given up on him so quickly. He completed 16 of 28 passes for 234 yards with 3 TDs and no picks in last season's home win against the Packers. Minnesota was very competitive in its first four games of the season because it was committed to running the football. It has gone away from that in its last two games and has paid the price. You can bet the Vikings have learned their lesson and that they'll look to run the football here against a team they averaged 208.0 rushing yards per game against last season. The Packers are coming off a 31-13 victory over Cleveland, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points. Also, you want play against favorites that check in off a win of 14 points or more if they are up against an opponent that checks in off two straight defeats of 10 points or more. That's because doing so has produced a 26-7 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams in this situation have been favored by 9.1 points on average but have won by only 2.5 points on average. Home field has been huge in this rivalry as the home side is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Vikings are 6-0 ATS since the beginning of last season versus poor kickoff coverage teams like Green Bay that give up 24.0 yards or more per return. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -1
The Key: Off back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the NFL (49ers and Seahawks), the Cardinals will be ready to take their frustrations out on the struggling Falcons. Atlanta ended a 3-game skid with a win over lowly Tampa Bay last week, but the banged-up Falcons face a much tougher task here as they hit the road for the first time since Sept. 22. They are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road this season and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. With Julio Jones out and Roddy White and Stephen Jackson not at 100 percent, this Atlanta offense is not high-octane enough to overcome a defense that's giving up 26.2 ppg. You want to fade road underdogs or pickems that average 23-27 ppg if they scored 24 points or more in the first half last game and are matched up against a team that gives up 18-23 ppg. Doing so has produced a 4-0 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and a 26-6 ATS since 1983. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Lay the number.

6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Lions -3
The Key: The Cowboys claimed sole possession of first place in the NFC East with last week's 17-3 victory at Philadelphia, but they have been a dead fade following a victory at 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a win. Also, you want to go against road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that held their opponent to 6 points or less last game if they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off a loss of 3 points or less. That's because doing so has produced a 3-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons, an 11-1 ATS record the last 10 seasons and a 23-5 ATS record since 1983. Not much should be read into Dallas' defensive performance against the Eagles as it is 5-22 ATS in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992. It has lost by an average score of 23.9 to 17.1 in this situation. I'll lay the small number with the Lions at home.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Buccaneers +7
The Key: Tampa Bay is 0-6, but it's not like it has been getting pummeled. Just two of its losses have come by double digits with three coming by three points or less. And it's not like the Bucs have been playing a bunch of cupcakes. They have played New Orleans, the New York Jets and New England Patriots. Carolina has benefited from a much lighter schedule. Since opening against Seattle, it has played Buffalo, the New York Giants, Arizona, Minnesota and St. Louis - all losing teams. Carolina has struggled on the road where it is just 9-22 in its last 31. It has also struggled against Tampa Bay, going 2-4 in the last 6 meetings, including 0-2 last year. It is also worth noting that Tampa Bay has won or lost by 7 points or less in 4 of its last 5 home games versus the Panthers. Tampa Bay stifled Carolina's running attack last season, holding the Panthers to only 10 yards on the ground in the home meeting. The Bucs still boast a nasty run defense, one that ranks 5th in the league. I believe the run defense will be the key to a cover tonight.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Giants -3
The Key: The Giants are off to a miserable 0-6 start, but only two of the losses have come at home. They play four of their next five at home so they believe they can get back on track. They have had 10 days of preparation time because they played the Thursday game last week. The extra time off should serve them well both physically and mentally as such a rough start can be very draining. The Vikings are off to a rough start as well, and I believe they'll struggle offensively tonight with Josh Freeman expected to get the start. He hasn't had very long to learn a new system and was playing very poorly in Tampa Bay. The New York defense has struggled, but the Minnesota stop unit has been even worse. It ranks dead last in the NFL with 419.6 yards allowed per game. The Vikings have especially struggled against the pass, which bodes well for Eli Manning and his group of talented receivers. Interceptions have been an issue for the two-time Super Bowl MVP, but it's only a matter of time before he finds his groove, and I believe it's tonight against a poor defense. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Also, the Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday Night Football contests. Lay the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Colts +7
The Key: While I consider the 6-0 Broncos to be a legit Super Bowl contender, I can also acknowledge the fact they are yet to play an opponent of the caliber of the Colts. None of Denver's wins have come against teams that currently have a winning record. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has impressive wins over the 49ers and Seahawks. I'm confident we'll see a strong effort from the Colts here as they bounce back from their worst performance of the season. Indy is 6-0 SU and ATS since the beginning of last season when it checks into a game following a defeat. It has won by an average score of 22.8 to 15.5 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Colts are 7-0 SU and ATS since the start of last season in home games that come after the first month of the season. They have won these contests by an average score of 25.6 to 20.0. Denver has the worst pass defense in the NFL. It is giving up 337.7 yards per game. That bodes well for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Denver has moved the ball with ease to this point, but that figures to change here as it goes up against the NFL's 5th-ranked pass defense. The Colts also rank 4th in scoring defense, holding opponents to 16.3 points per game. Take the points.

7* NFL Public Burial Game of the Month on Texans +7
The Key: The public is all over the 6-0 Chiefs, but I'm not ready to drink the Kansas City Kool-Aid. The Chiefs' wins have come against the Jaguars, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Titans and Raiders. None of these teams have a winning record, and they are a combined 11-25 on the season. The Texans have lost four in a row since winning their first two, but three of their losses (Baltimore, San Francisco, Seattle) have come against who I would consider to be quality opponents. And, Houston really should have defeated the Seahawks, who is arguably the best team in the NFL. Turnovers have been an issue for the Texans, but Matt Schaub, who has been the worst offender, isn't expected to play. Regardless if it's T.J. Yates or Case Keenum, the Texans will look to pound the football against Kansas City's 23rd-ranked run defense. Houston has the 6th-best rushing attack in the league. The Chiefs haven't been very impressive offensively, ranking 25th in total offense with 326.3 yards per game. Yards will be tough to come by against a Houston stop unit that leads the league with 252.8 yards per game allowed. This line has everything to do with public perception, and I'm confident the Texans are better than they have shown and the Chiefs aren't as good as their record looks. You want to fade teams that are coming off a victory of 14 points or more if they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off two consecutive defeats of 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 31-10 ATS result the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 14-4 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* AFC East Game of the Week on Jets +3.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from the Patriots following last week's thrilling comeback win against the Saints. The Jets suffered a letdown of their own last week following a big win over the Falcons, but they'll have no trouble getting up for this one. The Jets will be out to end a five-game losing streak to the Patriots. Two of the last three games between these two division rivals have been decided by three points. The Jets played New England to a three-point game in the season's first matchup despite four turnovers because their defense held Tom Brady and company to just 232 total yards. Geno Smith is more polished and confident than he was back in Week 2, and the Patriots are in worse shape defensively following the losses of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. The defense is also expected to be without Tommy Kelly and Aqib Talib. New England's offense is also yet to really get going, and it looks like Brady won't have Danny Amendola this week. The Jets are 16-4 ATS in home games following a home loss since 1992. They have won by an average score of 22.8 to 15.6 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NFL Situational Annihilator on Jaguars +9.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for the Chargers. They're feeling good about themselves following a big win over the Colts, but now they have to travel clear across the country on a short week to face a Jacksonville team that gained confidence with a good showing in Denver. We saw how unmotivated the Broncos were to play Jacksonville last week, and I expect a lethargic performance from San Diego here as well. The Chargers have lost their last two on the road to the Titans and Raiders - teams not considered to be playoff contenders. San Diego does have one road win this season, but that came by only three points in Philadelphia so we are getting good line value with the Jaguars catching over a touchdown. The Chargers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. You also want to take underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 points or less per game after a game where they allowed 35 points or more. Doing so has produced a 55-26 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Lastly, Jacksonville is 10-2 ATS all-time after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games. This situation was live last week, and the Jags got the easy cover.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals +7
The Key: In case Arizona's 32-20 loss at San Francisco doesn't provide enough motivation, a 58-0 loss the last time it faced the Seahawks certainly will. The Cardinals have been very resilient of late. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Seahawks haven't been the same team on the road where they struggled with Carolina and Houston and lost to Indianapolis. Arizona, on the other hand, has been at its best at home where it defeated a good Detroit team and clobbered Carolina 22-6. Home field has been big in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Arizona. Teams headed up by coach Arians are 8-0 ATS all-time at home, winning by an average score of 24.0 to 17.4. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Chargers +2.5
The Key: The Chargers are coming off a disappointing performance at Oakland, committing five turnovers in a 27-17 loss. However, they are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games following defeat, winning these by 8.0 points on average. Also, you want to fade road teams that scored 30 points or more in their previous game when they're up against a team that was held to 3 points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced an 84-43 ATS record the last 10 seasons. It is worth noting that this system is 4-1 ATS this season. San Diego has been terrific at home for years, going 41-17 in home regular-season games dating back to the 2006-07 season. Also, the underdog is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams. Riding high off a big win over Seattle and with Denver on deck, this is a sandwich game for the Colts. Take San Diego.

6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +2
The Key: Motivated by an 0-4 start where three of the losses came by three points or less, and having had a bye week to prepare, Tampa Bay is in great position to break into the win column. All four of Tampa Bay's losses have come to winning teams (Jets, Saints, Patriots, Cardinals). The Bucs played the 5-0 Saints to a two-point game at home so there's no doubt they have what it takes to beat the Eagles. Philly's two wins have come against the struggling Redskins and Giants, who are a combined 1-8. In its two games against winning teams (Chiefs and Broncos), it was smoked by double digits in each. Mike Glennon will be making his second career start, but I'm expecting a solid performance against a defense that ranks 31st in the league with 434 ypg allowed. The Eagles have gone 19 games without recording back-to-back wins. They are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Take Tampa Bay.

6* AFC *CA$H COW* on Steelers +3
The Key: This is a letdown spot for the Jets, who are coming off a big Monday night win in Atlanta and have had only five days to prepare for a Pittsburgh squad that's coming off a bye week. There's still a lot of games left to be played, and this proud Pittsburgh franchise isn't about to pack it in. The Steelers have remained sound defensively, ranking 10th in the league with 321.8 ypg allowed. They are fifth against the pass and should have plenty of success against New York rookie QB Geno Smith. The Steelers have terrorized rookie signal callers under DC Dick LeBeau, going 16-2 against teams starting rookie QBs during his watch. The Steelers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games versus a team with a winning home record while the Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall versus losing teams. Road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, after the first month of the season, are 64-31 ATS the last 10 seasons. Also, road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 26-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take Pittsburgh.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Texans -7
The Key: The season has not gone as planned thus far for a Houston team with Super Bowl aspirations, but I believe we'll see a championship-caliber performance from the Texans here. They've lost three in a row with their most recent defeat being a brutal 34-3 loss at San Francisco, and they'll be extremely motivated as a result. Houston is the top defensive team in the league, allowing only 260.2 yards per game. It also ranks No. 1 in pass defense, which is significant because the Rams rely heavily on the passing game. The Houston stop unit has done its job, and the offense has been solid as well, ranking 7th with 390.8 ypg. Unfortunately, turnovers have been an issue. QB Matt Schaub knows he has to play better, and I fully expect him to do so against a St. Louis defense that ranks 23rd in the league with 382.4 ypg allowed. Plus, the Rams have really struggled against the run, ranking 29th with 126 ypg allowed. This means Arian Foster could be poised for a huge game. The Rams are on a 1-12 ATS slide in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 375 yards or more per game. They are also on a 0-7 ATS skid in road games versus dominant ball control teams that average 32+ minutes of possession time and 21+ first downs per game. The Rams have lost these seven games by an average score of 27.3 to 8.9. Lastly, you want to play against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game when they're up against an opponent that was held to 3 points or less in the first half last game. Doing so has produced an 84-42 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is already 4-0 ATS this season. Take Houston.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Giants +9
The Key: The Bears are getting too much respect from odds makers here. They have lost their last two games by eight points and have only one win by more than three points this season. The Giants aren't as bad as their record looks. They won nine games last season. They have been hurt by turnovers. The Bears are one of the best in the business at forcing turnovers, but I expect a conservative game plan from New York knowing that. Plus, Chicago has forced at least three turnovers in four of its games and has come away with only one win of more than three points. Eli Manning is a much better player than he's showed thus far, and it's only a matter of time before he settles in. Any NFL team would take him over Jay Cutler. You want to fade teams like Chicago that are coming off one or more consecutive losses against the spread that have a winning percentage of 51-60% and are matched up against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse. Doing so has produced a 67-33 ATS record since 1983. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus NFC foes. It is also worth noting that the road team has dominated this series. The road team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings with the Giants going 4-0 SU and ATS in Chicago during this span. Take the points.

6* NFL Sunday Night Bailout on Raiders +5
The Key: The Chargers are getting too much respect on the road against an Oakland team that took a very good Colts team down to the wire and played Denver tougher than anyone else this season. The Chargers check in off a strong performance against Dallas but are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a victory. The Raiders will be very motivated here. Not only have they lost their last two, but they were swept by the San Diego in last year's series. One of those losses came by only three points, and the Raiders have won or lost by three points in four of the last six meetings. The Chargers are just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Bears +1
The Key: New Orleans looked good Monday night, but it is at a disadvantage here with one less day to prepare. Plus, it has not been the same team on the road. The Saints were fortunate to win at Tampa Bay in Week 2. They did not cover the spread in that game and squeaked by with a two-point victory against a team that's now 0-4. The Saints were on a 3-6 slide on the road prior to that game, and one of those wins came in OT against Dallas so they easily could have been on a 2-7 skid. Home field has been a big deal in this series. The home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings with the wins coming by 13.3 points on average. Three of these wins were by the Bears. In terms of the line, the home team is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in the series. Take Chicago.

7* AFC Game of the Year on Bengals pk
The Key: Motivated by last week's ugly loss in Cleveland, this incredibly talented Bengals teams will bounce back strong at home where it is 2-0 SU and ATS on the season. The Patriots are 4-0, but I'm not sold. They were fortunate to win their first two against the Bills and Jets and were outgained in last week's win against the Falcons. Despite playing a very soft schedule to this point, New England enters the week ranked just 16th in total defense and 20th in scoring offense. Cincy enters the week ranked 13th in total defense. Its offense is yet to get untracked, but I love it to do so here. New England showed just how vulnerable it is in the back when it gave up 399 passing yards last week. Plus, it will miss defensive tackle Vince Wilfork immensely. The Bengals are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Also, you want to fade road underdogs or pickems that scored 30 points or more in their last game when they are matched up against a team that was held to three points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced a 41-15 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is 18-6 ATS the last five seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Last week's loss at Cleveland will serve as the wake-up call Cincy needed. Bet the Bengals.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Browns -3.5
The Key: Winning on the road on a short week is too much to ask of the battered Bills. Buffalo is 0-5 in its last five road games with each of these losses coming by at least six points. The Bills upset Baltimore at home Sunday, but they are 1-9 ATS on the road after a game at home since the start of the 2011 season. They have lost by an average score of 32.5 to 15.3 in these 10 instances. The Browns enter with some nice momentum following back-to-back victories, and they aren't satisfied. They now believe that they can contend in the AFC North. The Browns have a sizable advantage on the defensive side of the football. They rank 3rd in total defense while the Bills rank 27th. It is also bodes well for Cleveland that Buffalo is wounded. Both Buffalo backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are dealing with injuries as well as receiver Stevie Johnson. In the secondary, starters Jairus Byrd and Leodis McKelvin are dealing with injuries. Lay the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Saints -7
The Key: I'm not sold on the Dolphins. They are fortunate to be 3-0 considering they have been outgained in each of their games and rank just 18th in total defense and 27th in total offense. Ryan Tannehill has made strides as the Dolphins rank 14th in passing offense with 249.0 ypg. However, he's up against a New Orleans defense that ranks second against the pass at 184.3 ypg allowed. The Saints are 9-0 ATS in home games since the start of the 2011 season versus teams that average 235 or more passing yards per game. They have won these contests by an average score of 38.0 to 17.6. While the Saints are a pass-first team, they know the importance of running the football to keep the defense off balance. They ran it effectively last week, and I expect them to have success on the ground versus a Miami defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in home games since the beginning of the 2011 season versus teams that allow 4.5 yards or more per carry. They have won these games by an average score of 38.0 to 21.5. Drew Brees has won eight consecutive Monday Night Football contests while throwing for 24 TDs against 5 INTs, and the Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday nighters. He should have a comfortable night in the pocket with Miami DE Cameron Wake expected to miss with a knee injury. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since the start of the 2011 season. Lay the points.

6* Late Afternoon Annihilator on Eagles +11
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses and having had nine days to prepare, the Eagles are showing value catching double digits against a Denver squad playing on a short week. Chip Kelly's offense has been a nightmare for teams to prepare for, let alone on a short week. The Eagles rank No. 2 in the NFL in total offense with 461.7 ypg and No. 1 in rushing with 209.0 ypg. Denver has yet to be challenged on the ground as its opponents have fallen behind by so much early, but I believe they'll be challenged here. Philly's run game will keep the Denver offense off the field enough to cover this hefty number. The Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Also, Philly is on a 9-1 ATS run after a game with a turnover margin of -4 or worse. Denver is on a 2-12 ATS slide after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games. Take the points.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Jaguars +9
The Key: This is a sandwich game for Indy, which is coming off a big win over the 49ers and has Seattle on deck. It won't give a Jacksonville team that has suffered three consecutive double-digit losses the attention it deserves. You want to play against favorites that are coming off a win of 14 points or more if they are matched up against an opponent that is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS record the last 10 seasons. You also want to take underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 points or less per game following a game where they allowed 40 points or more as doing so has produced a 76-37 ATS record since 1983. The Jags have given the Colts problems. Jacksonville has won 3 of the last 4 meetings. It has also won or lost by fewer than 9 points in 18 of the last 22 meetings. Take the points.

6* NFC North Annihilator on Lions -3
The Key: The Bears are very fortunate to be 3-0. They needed late comebacks to beat the Bengals and Vikings and then capitalized on one Pittsburgh miscue after another. They'll have a tough time getting past a Detroit squad that will be out for revenge after getting swept in the season series a year ago. The Lions are one of the best offensive teams in the league, and I like their chances against a Chicago defense that is giving up 383 ypg. Detroit wins this game if it can take care of the football, which is something it has done a good job of thus far. The Lions have committed only one turnover in each of their last two games. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 14 points, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Bears are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus NFC North foes and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a non-conference contest. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Detroit. Lay the points.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Giants +4.5
The Key: Fueled by an 0-3 start and last week's 38-0 loss at Carolina, you can bet Eli Manning and company will be ready to go Sunday. I'm not sold on the Chiefs, who have benefited from turnovers the last two weeks. New York has had major turnover issues, but I just don't see it continuing. Manning has been far too good throughout his career for the poor decision making to continue. It's far too early for the Chiefs to deserve this much respect at home. Consider that they are 0-6 ATS as a home favorite since the 2011 season and have lost these games by an average score of 24.5 to 11.0. Carolina got whatever it wanted on the ground last week, but the Giants tend to respond after getting torched in the run game. They are 6-0 ATS since 2011 after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. They have won by an average of 13.3 points in these contests. Lastly, the Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Chiefs. 5 of these wins were SU with the other a 3-point loss in KC. I'll take the points as the Giants have an excellent chance to win this one outright.

6* Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on 49ers -3
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses, I expect the defending NFC champs to bounce back strong here. You want to back road teams that check in off an upset loss of 10 points or more, provided the line is +3 to -3, as doing so has produced a 35-12 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. It is also worth noting that the 49ers are on a 30-14 ATS run following an upset loss. You also want to fade home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are outscored by 5.0 points or more per game in the first half, provided they were held to 14 points or less last game, as doing so has produced a 27-7 ATS record the last 5 seasons. St. Louis has really struggled to run the football, and that bodes well for San Francisco as it has struggled to stop the run in its last two games. The Rams are on a 4-17 ATS slide after being held to 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Additionally, the 49ers are 11-3 ATS under coach Harbaugh versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 yards per play or more. Lay the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Raiders +15.5
The Key: The Broncos are being overvalued because of how dominant they've been in their first two games. They have yet to be tested on the ground because Baltimore and the New York Giants were forced to take to the air due to big deficits. They'll be tested on the ground tonight, however, by the league's second-ranked rushing offense, which averages 198.5 yards per game. Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden have been explosive, and I expect them to run the ball effectively tonight. Doing so keeps the Denver offense off the field. Denver has been dealt a big blow with Peyton Manning's blindside protector, Ryan Clady, being lost for the season. His replacement, Chris Clark, has made six career starts at tight end but none at tackle. The Broncos were already without starting center Dan Koppen. These losses are big tonight because Oakland has shown the ability to rush the passer. It has nine sacks through the first two games. The Raiders are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 division games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus AFC foes. The road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings, and the Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Denver. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday Night Football games. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers +3
The Key: With its back up against the wall, I fully expect this proud Pittsburgh franchise to respond in a big way. The Steelers easily could have defeated the Bengals Monday had it not been for a pair of costly turnovers. The Steelers are not in as bad of shape as the media would like you to believe. The Bears are 2-0 but are very, very fortunate to be so. They trailed the Bengals 21-10 in the second half of the first game, and they trailed the Vikings 30-24 late in the 4th last week. The Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. The Steelers are on a 19-8 ATS run in home games following a loss to a division rival. They are also 11-3 ATS in home games after being held to 14 points or less under coach Tomlin. Pittsburgh has won by an average score of 27.4 to 11.1 in this situation. Take Pittsburgh.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Rams +4
The Key: A Dallas team that could easily be 0-2 is being overvalued here. The Cowboys are consistently one of the most overvalued teams every season because of their huge public backing. As a result, the Boys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. They are also 4-12 ATS as a home favorite under coach Garrett. It is also worth noting that they are 6-18 ATS since the start of the 2011 season versus NFC opponents. The Rams have been a terrific investment on the road where they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7. Take the points.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Titans -3
The Key: After showing well in a pair of road games against the Steelers and Texans, the Titans will be jacked up for their home opener. They'll also be incredibly motivated. Tennessee is 0-8 against the Chargers and was whipped 38-10 in San Diego last year so it will be out for blood. The Titans were a 6-point dog in last year's game, and they have caught 6 and 7 points, respectively, the first two weeks. Now, they're laying points against a team that has owned them and just upset a high-powered Philly squad? Odds makers clearly like Tennessee's chances here, and I couldn't agree more. Keep in mind the favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The Titans are the better defensive team, and they have had success by committing to running the football and not turning it over. Tennessee hasn't committed a turnover this season while forcing 4. San Diego has committed 3 and forced only 1. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus AFC foes and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after being held to less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Take Tennessee.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Eagles -3
The Key: The Eagles can't wait to get back on the field tonight after Sunday's narrow loss to San Diego. That defeat has them motivated and focused as they look to send their old coach back to Kansas City with his tail between his legs. Andy Reid is very familiar with Philadelphia's personnel, but he's not at all familiar with Chip Kelly's offense, which is averaging 477.0 yards and 31.5 points. The Eagles, on the other hand, are very familiar with the things that Reid likes to do offensively. The Kansas City defense has been pretty good thus far, but it played the worst team in the NFL (Jacksonville) in one of its games. Offense has been the big issue for the Chiefs as they rank 26th in total yards with 302.5 per game. The defense won't be able to get enough stops to give a mediocre-at-best offense enough possessions to get it done on the road tonight. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Eagles. Take Philadelphia.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers +7
The Key: I'm taking the points in a game I expect to go right down to the wire. Pittsburgh has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 13 consecutive games against the Bengals. Even more impressive, Pittsburgh has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 17 consecutive games in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh's defense was phenomenal in Week 1, and I'm confident it will have success against an opponent it knows very well. The Steelers held the Bengals to just 185 yards in last year's 24-17 win in Cincinnati. In addition to a stellar defensive performance, I expect the Pittsburgh offense to be much better than it was last week. The Bengals showed some vulnerability to the pass last week in Chicago, and Big Ben Roethlisberger is more than capable of having himself a game. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Seahawks -2.5
The Key: Seattle's home field advantage is no joke. The Seahawks are an impressive 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 home games. They smoked San Francisco 42-13 in last season's home matchup and are 8-4 SU and ATS in their last 12 home contests in the series. Additionally, the home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Seahawks have been a phenomenal investment at 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall, including 10-1 ATS in their last 11 versus winning teams. Seattle went on the road and averaged 6.3 yards per play last week. That's a good sign because it is on a 7-0 ATS run going back to last season after averaging 6 or more yards per play in its previous game. They have won by an average score of 34.0 to 15.3 in these spots. It is also worth noting that Seattle is 6-0 ATS all-time in home games in the first month of the season under coach Carroll, winning these by an average score of 23.3 to 14.2. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS all-time under Carroll in home games when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points. It is also worth noting that the 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus division foes. Lay the points.

6* Manning Bowl *CA$H COW* on Giants +5
The Key: This line is an overreaction to the beating Denver put on the defending Super Bowl champs. The Giants have the offense to match the Broncos punch for punch. The G-Men are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 matchups with teams that have a winning record. Additionally, the way New York was able to move the football last week is a good sign. The Giants are 9-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2011 season after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game. They have won by an average score of 28.4 to 19.9 in this situation. Look for Eli Manning and company to cut down on the turnovers and send home brother Peyton with a loss.

7* NFL Game of the Month on Buccaneers +3.5
The Key: Motivated by last week's upset loss to the Jets, and further fueled by a 41-0 beating the last time they played the Saints, the Buccaneers will be the hungrier team Sunday. Consider that Tampa Bay is on a 14-4 ATS run following an upset loss on the road, winning by an average score of 23.9 to 13.4 in this situation. In addition, the Saints find themselves in a letdown position following a big win over Atlanta. New Orleans was fortunate to win last season's matchup in Tampa Bay as it had to overcome a 14-0 deficit and was outgained 513-458. I don't believe the Saints will be as fortunate this time around. The Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games versus teams with a winning record. Take the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Patriots -11
The Key: The Jets can't be trusted with a rookie QB making his first road start on a short week. New England has owned the Jets of late, going 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in the last 4 meetings. These 4 wins have come by an average of 15.8 points. Also, 4 of New England's last 6 victories in the series have come by at least 17 points. The Pats will function much better on a short week because they have Tom Brady calling the shots. The injuries they are dealing with aren't a major concern. They continually plug players in and Brady makes them into Pro Bowlers. The Pats are 9-1 ATS since the start of the 2011 season when coming off a win against a division rival. They have won by an average score of 38.5 to 16.5 in this situation. Lay the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Eagles +3.5
The Key: Robert Griffin III will get the start for Washington tonight, but I'm not expecting an All-Pro caliber performance from him. He didn't take a single snap in the preseason, and I believe he'll be rusty as a result. In addition, Washington's defense will have a tough time figuring out Chip Kelly's offense. Philly will look to play uptempo, which is always taxing on defenses, especially early in the season before they're in full game shape. Washington will really struggle with the read-option stuff, which will get LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick into space where both are extremely dangerous. You want to fade favorites that allowed 5.4 yards per play or more last season if they're matched up against a division opponent because doing so has produced a 49-23 (68.1%) ATS record the last 10 seasons. Also, Washington is a on a 28-47 ATS slide as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lastly, the road team is on a 9-3-1 ATS run in the series. Take the points.

6* NFL Early Blowout on Lions -5
The Key: Look for the Lions to take care of business on their home field Sunday. Detroit will be incredibly motivated after grossly underachieving last year. The fact it was swept by Minnesota last season adds fuel to the fire. The Lions have more talent than the Vikings all over the field. I just don't see Minnesota being able to slow down a Detroit offense that averaged over 400.0 yards per game last season. The Detroit "O" should be even more dynamic this season with the addition of Reggie Bush. Everything Minnesota does stems from the run. That makes it very tough to comeback when it finds itself in a hole, which is exactly where it will be if Detroit doesn't give the ball away. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1. The Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. In head-to-heads, the winning team has won by at least 6 points in 7 of their last 8 meetings. Lay the points.

6* NFL Public Burial on Raiders +10.5
The Key: The public is all over the Indianapolis Colts here, and I believe it will get buried for its support. The Colts won 11 games last season but were fortunate to do so. 9 of their victories came by 7 points or less. 6 of those were decided by 4 points or fewer with another decided in OT. With this info in mind, I don't think Indy is worth the double-digit lay. The Colts will rely on Andrew Luck to move the ball through the air, which plays to Oakland's strength. The Raiders are nice across the back with D.J. Hayden, Tracy Porter, Mike Jenkins and Charles Woodson. Luck had 18 passes picked last season, and I wouldn't be surprised if this group gets him once or twice. I also like the fact Terrelle Pryor is getting the start. He brings an element to the table that is impossible to prepare for. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Panthers +4.5
The Key: The Seahawks are being overvalued on the road as oddsmakers are looking to exploit the public perception of them. Seattle was not the same team away from home last season. It went 3-5 on the road during the regular season with one of the wins coming by just 4 points and the other coming in OT. It was these Panthers that played the Seahawks to the aforementioned 4-point game and did so despite totaling only 190 yards of offense. This speaks to how well Carolina defended the Seahawks. Plus, we know the Cam Newton-led Panthers are capable of a much better performance offensively. NFL teams headed up by Pete Carroll are 4-13 ATS all-time as a road favorite of 7 points or less. Furthermore, the Seahawks are 0-6 ATS all-time in road games occurring in the first month of the season under Carroll. They have lost these by an average score of 24.5 to 10.5. Take the points.

6* NFL Opening Night *CA$H COW* (NBC) on Broncos -7
The Key: The Broncos defeated the Ravens 34-17 in Baltimore last regular season, and they should have earned a 7-point home victory over the Ravens in the playoffs, but Joe Flacco connected on a 70-yard TD pass to Jacoby Jones and the rest is history. That loss has fueled the Broncos this offseason, and I fully expect them to have their revenge this evening. Excluding pushes, Denver is on a 10-2 ATS run as a favorite and has won by an average score of 31.8 to 16.5 in these games. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games while the Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Lay the points.

7* Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +4
The Key:The Baltimore defense has come alive at the perfect time. The Ravens held the New England Patriots, the No. 1 ranked offensive team during the regular season, to only 13 points in the AFC Championship. They also held the Indianapolis Colts to just nine points in the wild-card round. They gave up 35 points to the Denver Broncos in the divisional round, but 14 of those points were scored on kick returns. In other words, they held Peyton Manning and the explosive Denver offense to only 21 points. If they can hold down these offenses, they can limit the 49ers.

It is no secret that San Francisco will look to run the football. Baltimore, however, has proven itself against good running teams for years. Consider that the Ravens are on a 22-9 against the spread run in games played in the second half of the schedule versus good running teams that average 130.0 rushing yards or more per game. The Ravens have defeated these foes by an average of 3.3 points. Baltimore held the 49ers to just 74 yards on the ground in last season

6* AFC Championship *CA$H COW* on Patriots -8.5
The Key: The public is piling on Baltimore after watching it upset Denver last week but consider that road underdogs or 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off an upset win, provided they have a winning record and are playing another winning team in the second half of the season, are 72-36 ATS since 1983. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 10.3 points. The Ravens won the regular-season meeting but the Pats are 13-4 ATS all-time under coach Belichick when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. New England is also 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. It has won these games by an average of 18.0 points. Baltimore benefited from a pick-six and a couple bombs against the Broncos. It can't be counted on to make the same big plays this week. Lay the points.

7* NFL Conference Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Falcons +5
The Key: The 49ers looked dominant against the Packers last week, and the public is jumping all over them as a result. That game, however, was at home. San Francisco hasn't been the same team on the road where it has 3 losses, including a 42-13 loss to a Seattle team the Falcons just defeated. Atlanta must be taken seriously at home where it is 8-1 this season and 34-8 in its last 42 games. The numbers suggest the public's kneejerk reaction to back the 49ers isn't the right move. Consider that San Francisco is on a 14-31 ATS slide in road games following a win of 14 or more points. The Niners have lost these games by an average of 2.4 points. It is also significant that Atlanta failed to cover the spread last week. That's because it is 22-8 ATS all-time under coach Mike Smith after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. It has won these games by an average of 8.0 points. Take the points.

7* AFC Divisional Round *HEAVY HITTER* on Texans +10
The Key: The Texans lost 42-14 in New England on Dec. 10, but consider this: road teams that are out for revenge for a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent, provided both teams have winning records, are 29-7 ATS the last 10 seasons. In addition, the Texans are 9-2 ATS all-time under coach Kubiak when out for revenge for a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent. They have won these contests by an average of 4.8 points. It is also worth noting that New England is 1-9 ATS all-time in home games under coach Belichick when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. The Pats have won these contests by an average of only 2.7 points. Houston is good enough defensively and has a good enough running game to have its revenge against the New England.

6* NFC Divisional Round *CA$H COW* on Seahawks +3
The Key: The Falcons haven't shown they can be trusted in the playoffs. They are 0-3 in the postseason under coach Mike Smith and have been absolutely destroyed by the Packers and Giants the last 2 years. Seattle is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons, 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 6.0 points or more per game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Seahawks are 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. The Seahawks are playing outstanding football. They held the Redskins, one of the best offensive teams in the league, to just 203 yards last week. Take the points.

6* NFC Divisional Round *CA$H COW* on Packers +3
The Key: The Packers lost to the 49ers clear back in September, but I expect them to have their revenge. Green Bay is 13-2 against San Francisco dating back to 1996 and is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in road games during this span. The lone road loss came by only 3 points. The Packers are 37-22 ATS in all road games under coach Mike McCarthy and 24-13 ATS as an underdog under his watch. In addition, they are 16-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less under McCarthy and have won these games by an average of 4.3 points. I have a lot more faith in Aaron Rodgers than SF rookie Colin Kaepernick here. Take the points.

7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Ravens +10
The Key: The Ravens fell 34-17 to the Broncos on Dec. 16, but that won't keep me off them here. Consider that underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are looking for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 28 points or more on them, provided it is the second half of the season and both teams have winning records, are 23-4 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this system have lost by just 0.7 points on average. This system is 10-1 ATS the last 5 seasons and 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. With last week's win over Indy, Baltimore improved to 6-4 in the postseason dating back to 2009. It is worth noting that only 1 of these defeats came by more than 9 points. Not playing last week is the worst thing that could have happened to the Broncos as it gets them out of rhythm and takes away their momentum. The Ravens are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Denver. Take the points.

6* NFC Wild Card *CA$H COW* on Seahawks -3
The Key: Defense wins games this time of year, and Seattle definitely has the better defense. The Seahawks finished the season ranks No. 1 in the NFL in scoring defense with 15.3 points allowed per game. They ranked No. 4 in total defense with 306.2 yards allowed per contest. The Redskins, meanwhile, ranked 22nd in scoring defense (24.2 ppg allowed) and 28th in total defense (377.7 ypg allowed). Washington was one of the top offensive teams in the league, but just look at what the Seahawks have done to good offenses lately. Seattle is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 24 points or more per game over the last 2 seasons. They have defeated these teams by an average of 7.5 points. The Seahawks are also 7-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 7 or more passing yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons. They have defeated these foes by an average of 6.4 points. Furthermore, the Seabirds are 7-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.5 yards or more per carry over the last 2 seasons and have defeated these teams by an average of 10.0 points. Lastly, Seattle is 6-0 ATS all-time in the second half of the season under Pete Carroll versus poor defensive teams that give up 24.0 points or more per game. The Seahawks have won these contests by an average of 20.5 points. Lay the field goal.

7* NFL Wild Card *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens -6.5
The Key: Hats off to the Colts for a fantastic bounce back season, but the playoffs are a different animal. The Colts are very inexperienced. Nine of their starters have no postseason experience at all. Baltimore, meanwhile, has a roster stacked with playoff experience. Plus, we're talking about a team that is 4-0 in its opening playoff game the past 4 seasons and won each of them by at least 7 points. The Colts will depend on their rookie QB (Luck) in this one. And while he's had a good season, it shouldn't go unnoticed that he's thrown 18 picks and has a passer rating of just 76.5. The Baltimore pass defense has been outstanding down the stretch. It has held each of its last 3 and 5 of its last 7 foes below 200 yards passing. It is very significant that it has held its last 2 opponents below 150 yards passing because the Ravens are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Harbaugh after giving up 150 or less passing yards in 2 straight games. The Ravens have won by an average of 10.2 points in this situation. Lay the points.

6* NFC Wild Card *CA$H COW* on Packers -7.5
The Key: Historically speaking, the numbers aren't in Minnesota's favor. Plays against any team off an upset win over a division rival at home, as long as it has a winning record and is playing another winning team, are 37-13 ATS since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Also, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are coming off an upset loss are 61-28 ATS since 1983. This system is 10-1 ATS the last 5 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The Packers are 7-1 at home and won this season's home meeting against the Vikes by 9 points despite giving up 240 yards rushing. The Vikings are just 3-5 on the road this season and are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 visits to Lambeau, losing them by an average of 17.0 points. Green Bay was gashed for 217 yards on the ground in Week 17 but is a perfect 6-0 ATS after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Texans -4.5
The Key: The Bengals closed the season strong but only beat two playoff teams all season. One of those wins came against Washington early in the year before it had rounded into form. The other came in Week 17 versus a Baltimore team that rested its starters the majority of the game. Houston crushed Cincy 31-10 in a wild-card matchup last season and did so without Matt Schaub under center. The Bengals are improved, but so are the Texans. This is one of the most talented teams in the NFL, one a lot of folks picked to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I still like its chances. Houston is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 meetings with Cincy dating back to 2008 and has won these by an average of 15.5 points. Houston's running game was way too much for the Bengals to handle in last season's playoff meeting as the Texans rushed for 188 yards. I expect it to be too much again. The Bengals are 9-18 ATS under coach Marvin Lewis versus strong running teams that average 130 yards or more per game on the ground. Lay the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Cowboys +3.5
The Key: The Cowboys have been a solid investment on the road where they are 5-2 ATS this season. They lost the season's first meeting but had won 3 in a row and 6 of 7 against the Redskins prior. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the underdog is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings. It is also worth noting that Washington is on a lousy 34-58 ATS slide as a home favorite. I'll grab the points with the Cowboys in this winner-take-all matchup.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on Rams +11
The Key: Plays against home favorites that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent, provided they check in off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 23-5 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Rams are 10-3 ATS in the underdog role this season and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. NFC West foes. Seattle rolled San Francisco last week but is a pathetic 2-17 ATS in its last 19 games following a home blowout win of 21 points or more. The Seahawks' chances of capturing the NFC West are slim as they need to win and have the 49ers lose at home to Arizona. The chances of that happening aren't very good. There will be some scoreboard watching so Seattle could be resting some players before the game is through. Take the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +5.5
The Key: The Buccaneers will be the more motivated team. They have lost five in a row and don't want to end the season with another lengthy losing streak. They have also lost their last two against the Falcons so they would love to bring an end to that two-game slide as well. Win or lose, the Falcons will own the best record in the NFC. In other words, they don't have anything to play for. The most important thing for them is to head into the playoffs healthy, which means there

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Seahawks +1
The Key: The Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS at home this season. They are also 7-0 ATS in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games when looking for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. In addition, Seattle is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more passing yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.5 rushing yardsor more per carry over the last 2 seasons. The Seahawks have been tough as nails at home all season. Plus, it will be tough for San Francisco to bounce back emotionally following such an emotional win at New England last week. Seattle only lost by 2 points to the 49ers in last season's home meeting, and I believe it has what it takes to get the job done this time around.

6* NFL Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Browns +13.5
The Key: The Browns are being undervalued here considering they have lost just one road game by more than 13 points this season. That was a 14-point setback to the defending Super Bowl champion NY Giants. Their other 4 road defeats have all come by 7 or less points. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Browns check in off a 17-point loss to Washington but are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of at least 15 points. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Eagles +6.5
The Key: The Eagles were whacked by the Bengals in last week's Thursday night game, but with the extra time to prepare and extremely motivated to avenge last month's ugly loss at Washington, I expect a strong performance by Philly this week. The Eagles are an awesome 9-0 ATS off a home blowout loss of 21 points or more over the last two decades. They have bounced by from such defeats to win by an average of 7.2 points in these spots. It is also to our benefit that RG3 isn't at full strength. It's likely that he'll play Sunday, but I don't expect him to be the same player he has been throughout his rookie season. Take the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Lions +4.5
The Key: The Lions were embarrassed in Arizona last week but played the Packers (twice), Texans and Colts very tough before that (3 of the losses came by 4 points or less). A matchup with arguably the best team in the NFC should get Detroit's juices flowing again. Atlanta shutout the Giants last week but is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The Lions, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. Detroit is also on a 15-5 ATS run following a loss of 28 or more points. The Lions are a much better team than their record shows, and I expect them to prove it here.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on NY Jets +2
The Key:The Jets fall under a great situation tonight playing against favored home teams with terrible defenses. Trend has hit consistently at 66% since 1983 (51-26). Tennessee is also one of the worst home teams in the NFL this year, going just 2-4 both ATS and straight up. Their home defense also ranks among the worst in recent memory, allowing visiting teams to rack up 422 yards per game for 32 points per game so far this season.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on 49ers +6
The Key: analysis coming...

6* NFC North *CA$H COW* on Bears +3
This game falls into a great situation where the bears are a solid 77-40 against the spread!

7* NFL Game of the Month on Ravens +3
The Key: Baltimore dominates versus divisional oppnenets, going 14-3 against them since 1992.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Bengals -4
The Key: The Bengals have cleaned up against poor teams in the second half of the season under coach Marvin Lewis, even on the road. In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in road games under their current coach when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season and have won these games by an average of 14.3 points. The Bengals are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus the Eagles. Cincy desperately needs this game to keep pace for the final AFC wild-card slot. That's all the motivation it should need to get the job done against a Philly squad that has lost 8 of 9. Lay the points.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Patriots -4
The Key: I love the Pats at home tonight considering how good they have been late in the season. They are 20-0 in regular season games played in the second half of the season since 2010 and have won their last 12 December contests. Also, plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning record on the season that are coming off 2 straight road wins and are matched up against a winning team are 30-9 ATS since 1983, including a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.