7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Buccaneers +7.5
The Key: Recent trends stack the odds heavily against Dallas here. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Bet the Bucs.

7* NFL Thursday Night Side & Total *POWER PARLAY* on Jaguars +12.5/Under 42.5
The Key: Atlanta has only defeated 2 teams by more than 12 points this season and one of those teams was the Colts. The Jaguars have a win over a Baltimore team that is arguably the class of the AFC. They have also played 10-win Pittsburgh and Houston teams to single-digit games. The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or more points while the Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more.

The total is elevated because both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs. This gives us an opportunity to cash in on the under. The Jags have finished under the number in 10 of 13 games this season and the Falcons have come in under the total in 8 of their last 9.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Rams +10.5
The Key: The Seahawks are being overvalued following a big 17-point win over the Eagles last week. Seattle benefited from a +4 turnover margin in that game but shouldn't enjoy the same advantage tonight versus a St. Louis team that hasn't had worse than a -2 margin all season. The Seahawks are a poor 3-24-2 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Bet St. Louis.

6* Bears +3.5
The Key: The Broncos are 16-35-3 ATS in their last 54 games as a home favorite and 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

6* Cardinals +4
The Key: The 49ers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite and 7-23-4 ATS in their last 34 games following a win of more than 14 points. The Cardinals are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.

6* Titans +4
The Key: The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points while the Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.

6* Eagles +3
The Key: The Dolphins are 20-48-1 ATS in their last 69 home games and 9-29 ATS in their last 38 games as a home favorite. The Eagles are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Bengals -1.5
The Key: The Texans, who are riding a 6-game winning streak, are getting points against a Cincy team that was blown out last week. Something smells fishy. The Texans are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Also, Cincy is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game. With Houston's third-string QB making his first road start against one of the best defensive teams in the NFL, this one won't end well for the Texans.

7* NFL Thursday Night Parlay of the Year on Browns +14.5/Under 39
The Key: The Steelers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 35 points or more last game. They have only won by an average of 1.5 points in this situation. Also, they are only 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games when laying 10 or more points. They have only won by an average of 8.9 points in this situation.

The Under is 4-1 in the Steelers' last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater and 6-2 in the Browns' last 8 games overall. Both of these teams are very solid defensively with the Browns ranking 8th in the NFL in both total and scoring defense and the Steelers ranking No. 1 in total defense and 4th in points allowed. We'll take the points and the under.

7* AFC Game of the Week on Chargers -3
The Key: The Jaguars are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Monday Night Football games. San Diego, which crushed the Jags by 25 points last season, is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 games versus AFC South foes, defeating them by an average of 10.7 points. Lay the number.

6* Sunday Night Football Bailout (NBC) on Lions +9
The Key: The Lions are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss of 10 points or more at home. Take the points.

5* Cardinals +5
The Key: The Cowboys are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. We'll fade Dallas laying more than a field goal in Arizona, where it lost last year.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Giants +7
The Key: The Giants need this game badly, and they haven't forgotten about the beating they were handed at Green Bay last season. The Packers are good, there's no doubt, but they are extremely lucky to still be undefeated because their defense is so poor (30th in the NFL with 393.4 ypg allowed). Look for this hungry New York squad to take Green Bay right down to the wire with a chance to win outright for an easy cover. The Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the points and best of luck.

5* Bears -7
The Key: The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

6* Dolphins -3
The Key: The Raiders are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog of 3.0 points or less and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 3.0 points or less.

6* NFL CA$H COW on Eagles -3
The Key: The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Also, the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Seattle doesn't have quite enough offense to keep pace tonight. Lay the number.

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Giants +7.5
The Key: The Giants are an impressive 30-14 ATS in their last 44 road games and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday Night Football games. It is also important to note that New York is 8-0 ATS in road contests under coach Coughlin when matched up against good passing teams that average 260.0 passing yards or more per game. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football Bailout on Chiefs +11
The Key: The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

6* AFC West CA$H COW on Chargers -5
The Key: The Chargers are 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Broncos. The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Chargers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. This team is disappointed by its losing streak but knows it can get right back in the division hunt with a win here.

7* NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Seahawks -3
The Key: After 5 consecutive SU and ATS losses, which all came by at least 7 points, the Redskins found a way to get up for their biggest rivals (Dallas) only to fall in overtime. I believe that loss was the knockout punch for this disappointing team. The Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* (NFL Network) on Ravens -3
The Key: Baltimore is 6-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons, 8-0 ATS after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less.

6* CA$H COW (FOX) on Packers -6
The Key: The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Lions are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chiefs +17
The Key: I know the Chiefs are playing without starting QB Matt Cassel, but this too many points for them to be catching, especially against a team that ranks dead last in the NFL with 412 yards allowed per game. The Pats have only won by a margin greater than this once this season. Their other double digit wins came by 14 points or less. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Patriots are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. We'll take the points.

7* NFL Underdog Game of the Year on Chargers +4
The Key: The Chargers are 22-8-3 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog and 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

6* Cardinals +10
The Key: The road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Arizona is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games versus elite teams with a winning percentage better than 75%.

6* Buccaneers +14.5
The Key: The Buccaneers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

6* Ravens -7
The Key: The Ravens are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games as a home favorite and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

6* NFL CA$H COW on Broncos +7
The Key: Tough spot for the Jets as they hit the road on a short week following a deflating loss to division rival New England. The Broncos are playing their best football of the season, and they'll be lacking no confidence against a Jets squad they played to a 4-point game at home last year. Bet the Broncos.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Vikings +14
The Key: This is just too many points for a Minnesota team that runs the ball well and gets after the quarterback to be catching. The Vikes, who played the Packers to a 6-point game the first time around, have been defeated by more than 14 points just once this season. They have only been beaten by more than 14 points two times by Green Bay dating back to 1998. That's only two times in 28 matchups. We'll take Minnesota.

6* Seahawks +7
The Key: The Ravens are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.

5* Redskins +4
The Key: The Dolphins are 17-48-1 ATS in their last 66 home games, 6-29 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win.

6* Texans -3
The Key: The Buccaneers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog and 1-8 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less under coach Morris.

6* Cowboys -4.5
The Key: The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Cowboys are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Steelers -3
The Key: The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Cincinnati.

7* Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* (NFL Network) on Chargers -7
The Key: Motivated by 3 straight losses, and further motivated by getting swept by Oakland in last year's regular season, expect the Chargers to take care of business tonight. Carson Palmer is struggling and Darren McFadden won't be on the field. The Chargers are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. They're also 6-0 ATS in the second half of the season the last 3 seasons versus good offensive teams who averaging >=350 yards/game. They're winning by an average of 17.1 points in this situation. Lay the number.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Eagles -7.5
The Key: The Bears have been a terrible investment as a road underdog. In fact, they are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. We'll lay the points with an Eagles team that has its mojo back.

7* 2011 NFL Game of the Year on Chargers +6
The Key: The Bolts have been one of the best home bets in the NFL for quite some time now. They are 3-0 at home this season, 35-8 the last 6 seasons and 46-13 the last 8 seasons. The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog, 22-7-3 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog and 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Packers are the second-worst team in the NFL against the pass and the Chargers rank 6th in the league in passing offense. Look for San Diego to take advantage through the air and stun the defending Super Bowl champs.

5* Titans -2.5
The Key: I'm not a believer in the Bengals, who gave up big yards to one of the worst offense teams in the league last week. The Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record and 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 3.0 points or less.

6* Saints -8
The Key: Highly motivated spot for the Saints as they look to bounce back from last week's dud and avenge an earlier season loss to Tampa Bay. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) that are out to avenge a loss to an opponent and are off an upset loss are 72-37 ATS the last 28 seasons, including 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

6* Redskins +4
The Key: I'm not ready to lay this much chalk on the road with a 49ers team that is overachieving in my opinion, especially since the Niners are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

5* Jets +1.5
The Key: The Jets, who have played in back-to-back AFC title games, aren't ready to move over for Buffalo. New York blew out the Bills in each of last season's matchups by rushing for more than 270 yards. Look for the NY running game to be the difference again.

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Chargers -3
The Key: The Bolts have won 7 of the last 8 in this series and each of their last 4 victories over the Chiefs have come by 3 points or more. My player profiles and offensive and defensive statistics indicate that San Diego is the better team on both sides of the football. The only way Kansas City keeps this one close is if San Diego makes some costly turnovers. I don't see it happening. Prior to the 6 gifts Oakland gave the Chiefs last week, they had only forced a total of 5 turnovers. We'll lay the points.

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Year (NBC) on Eagles -3
The Key: The Eagles are a perfect 12-0 following a bye week under coach Andy Reid. Plus, Dallas is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after a cover as a double digit favorite.

5* Seahawks +2
The Key: The Bengals are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.

6* Redskins +5
The Key: The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.

5* Colts +9
The Key: The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

6* Rams +14.5
The Key: The Saints are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

7* MNF Game of the Month on Jaguars +11
The Key: The Jaguars are too good of a defensive football team to be getting this many points at home. Plus, the Ravens are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games when valued as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Packers -8.5
The Key: I like the the defending Super Bowl champs to win this game by 10 or more as they exploit the inexperience of rookie QB Christian Ponder. GB is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games versus teams with losing records. The Packers are defeating these foes by an average of 15.6 points.

6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Browns -3
The Key: The Seahawks are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 road games and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. Can't see them winning on the road today without starting QB Tarvaris Jackson. Bet the Browns.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Jets -6.5
The Key: The Dolphins check into this contest at 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Miami is 0-4 on the season and 3 of those losses have come by 10 points or more. It won't get any sympathy from a Jets squad that will be very motivated following 3 straight defeats. The Jets will be further motivated by the fact that Miami won on the road in last season's meeting. Miami is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, ranking 30th with 414.5 yards allowed per game. A Miami offense that ranks 29th in scoring with 17.2 ppg should struggle as well with backup Matt Moore under center. Expect the Jets to show the inexperienced QB a lot of different looks to confuse him. That should result in him making a couple costly mistakes. The Dolphins are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 meetings with the Jets. The Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Jets.

6* Sunday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* (NBC) on Vikings +3
The Key: Chicago has had no answer for the run. It is 28th in the league with 135.6 rushing yards allowed per game. That doesn't bode well for them with Adrian Peterson coming to town. He leads the NFC with 498 rushing yards. Minnesota's running game will be the difference here.

7* NFL Underdog Game of the Week on Cowboys +7.5
The Key: The Cowboys are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in the underdog role. With a bye week to prepare and get healthy Dallas will keep this one close.

5* Colts +7
The Key: Indy has played its last 3 opponents close, and I look for this trend to continue. The Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Month on Giants -3
The Key: The Giants have struggled the last 2 weeks because they didn't commit to their running game. That will change today. New York is 11-0 ATS under Tom Coughlin after consecutive game with 99 rushing yards or less. The Giants are steamrolling opponents by an average score of 29.3 to 18.7 in this situation. Expect big things from New York's rushing attack in a blowout win.

6* Eagles -1
The Key: The Eagles are the more talented team. That was made obvious when they won 59-28 at Washington last season. If Philly can limit its turnovers, it ends its skid. Look for the Eagles to do just that against a Washington defense that hasn't forced more then 2 turnovers in any game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Lions -6
The Key: Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. It's winning these games by an average of 14.1 points. Detroit is also 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins dating back to last season. It's winning these games by an average of 7.2 points. Chicago is 0-6 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game under coach Smith. It's losing by an average of 7.9 points in this situation. Lay the number.

6* Sunday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* (NBC) on Falcons +6.5
The Key: The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup.

6* Raiders +5.5
The Key: The Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss, and the Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win.

5* Steelers -3
The Key: The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss.

5* Jaguars +1.5
The Key: The Bengals are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games when laying any amount of points.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Eagles -2.5
The Key: Buffalo may have the better record at this point, but that likely won't be the case by season's end. Philly is the more talented side, and it will be eager to end a 3-game skid. The Bills are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games in the underdog role.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Colts +11
The Key: A Colts team that just took the Steelers down to the wire isn't getting enough respect here. The Bucs are just 4-12 ATS in home games under coach Morris. The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday Night Football games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more. Take the Colts and the points.

7* NFL Underdog Game of the Week on Cardinals +2
The Key: The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less.

6* Bengals +3
The Key: Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog.

6* Cowboys -1
The Key: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.0 or less.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on Eagles -9
The Key: The Eagles have won 5 straight over the 49ers by an average of 16.8 points.

7* MNF Game of the Month on Cowboys -3
The Key: The Cowboys have won 4 of the last 5 in this series. Dating back to 1992, they have won 25 of 38 against Washington, including 16 of 19 at home. It's also worth noting that the Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday Night games. The Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record. We'll confidently lay the points with Dallas.

6* NFC championship rematch on Bears +4.5
The Key: The value is clearly with the Bears catching more than a field goal at home in this revenge spot. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. Expect Chicago to bounce back strong against a Green Bay team it defeated at home in last year's regular season.

6* Ravens -5
The Key: The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.

6* Dolphins +3
The Key: The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog and 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 3.0 points or less.

7* NFL Underdog Game of the Month on Vikings +3.5
The Key: Detroit is 0-8 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992, losing these games by an average of 13.5 points. Plus, Minne has won 13 straight at home in this series. Take the Vikes and the points.

6* Sunday Night Football CA$H COW (NBC) on Falcons +3
The Key: The Falcons will be ready to go at home tonight after laying an egg on the road last week. I'll gladly take them catching a field goal here considering they have won 20 of their last 24 regular season home games. Take the points.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Chargers +7
The Key: The Chargers are far too deadly a dog to pass them up at this price. They are 22-6-3 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. Take the points.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Cowboys -3
The Key: The 49ers are a miserable 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win and 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of a field goal or less. Lay the number.

6* Non-Conference Game of the Week on Chiefs +9
The Key: KC is an impressive 21-6 ATS in its last 27 road games after a loss by 10 or more. It's winning by an average score of 22.5 to 21.7 in this situation. Take the points.

6* MNF Bailout (ESPN) on Broncos -3
The Key: The Broncos will be extremely hungry and focused tonight as they look to avenge a pair of embarrassing losses to Oakland last season. We'll lay the points with Denver here as the Raiders are only 4-21-2 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 3 or fewer points.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) Dolphins +8
The Key: Motivated by a pair of blowout defeats in this matchup last season, look for the Phins to take the Pats down to the wire tonight. The Dolphins are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

7* NFL Game of the Week (NBC) on Cowboys +6
The Key: The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when valued as an underdog. Take the points tonight as Dallas gives New York a run for the money.

6* Bills +5.5
The Key: The Bills have covered 4 straight in this series, winning 3 of the 4 outright. They took KC to overtime at Arrowhead last year.

6* NFL CA$H COW on Ravens pk
The Key: This game is all about revenge for the Ravens, who were bounced from the playoffs by Pittsburgh last season. Baltimore opened as a favorite and is still a small fave at many shops. This is significant because the Ravens are 45-22-1 against the spread in their last 68 games as a home favorite.

6* Bengals +7
The Key: The underdog has covered the spread in 7 of the last eight meetings in this series.

7* Super Bowl 45 *HEAVY HITTER* on Packers -2.5
The Key: Green Bay is an impressive 51-32 ATS in all games under coach Mike McCarthy, winning these contests by an average of 5.6 points. Off 3 or more consecutive wins, the Packers are a dominant 11-3 ATS under McCarthy, winning in this situation by 10.4 points on average. Also under coach McCarthy, Green Bay is an awesome 20-6 ATS provided it checks into a contest with 4 or 5 wins in its last 6 games. It is rolling in this situation by 11.3 points on average. Both defenses are at the top of their games, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are clearly the better offensive team right now. In this battle of great stop units, expect the team with the better offense to come out on top. Lay the points.

6* AFC Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Jets +3.5
The Key: The Jets went into Pittsburgh during the regular season and came away with a victory. I expect them to do it again Sunday. Plays against home favorites (PITTSBURGH) revenging a loss to an opponent, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 27-4 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 12-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. I know the Jets are coming off a big win over New England, but I expect no letdown. Under coach Ryan, NY is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win against a division rival. The Jets were 1 of 2 teams to run for more than 100 yards on the Steelers during the regular season. Pittsburgh lost both of those games. Expect the Jets' running game to be the difference again in this matchup. Bet the Jets.

7* 2011 NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Bears +4
The Key: Green Bay has rattled off a pair of road wins in the postseason, but let's not forget that it was 3-5 away from home entering the playoffs. Let's not forget that it lost at Chicago this season and that no No. 6 seed has ever represented the NFC in the Super Bowl. It's tough to win 3 straight games on the road. The Packers weren't able to do it during the regular season, and they won't be able to pull it off with the stakes raised in the playoffs. The Green Bay defense has not consistently been able to stop the run this season. That will be a big problem for the Packers Sunday against a Chicago rushing attack that has broke the century mark in 9 of the last 10 games. Lovie Smith and the Bears made it to the Super Bowl a few short seasons ago. Everything about this team is better than that one, starting with the coaching staff and the quarterback. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC North. Bet the Bears.

6* Jets/Pats Rubber Match on Jets +9
The Key: It is proven time and time again that teams respond after getting embarrassed. I just can't see a team as talented as the Jets not responding here after as badly as they were embarrassed by the Pats last month. Consider that road teams (NY JETS) out to get revenge for a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent, provided that road team has a winning record on the season, are 29-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. The Pats are constantly overvalued, especially in the playoffs, and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a result. Take the points.

7* NFL Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year on Bears -10
The Key: The Seahawks won in Chicago earlier this season, but that was before the Bears found their groove. The Seahawks have lost 6 road games this season by 17, 17, 30, 15, 19 and 23 points. The Seahawks are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 road games, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Seattle is 0-6 ATS when valued as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points on the road over the last 2 seasons. The Seahawks have lost these contests by an average of 21.4 points. Expect Chicago to dominate today.

7* NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Packers +3
The Key: I know about Matt Ryan's home record, but this is his first home game in the postseason. Aaron Rodgers is the more proven quarterback, especially in the postseason where he has put together a pair of extraordinary games in his 2 career playoff starts. For my money, Rodgers is the better QB and Green Bay has the better "D". Atlanta won the regular season meeting, but the Packers outgained the Falcons by over 100 yards in that game. Green Bay is running the ball much better now and the defense is stuffing the run better as well. The Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog. Expect them to have their revenge against Atlanta here.

6* Ravens/Steelers Rubber Match on Ravens +3
The Key: This game is all about revenge for the Ravens. They were in control of the game the last time these teams faced off and then Troy Polamlu struck with a sack fumble to bail the Steelers out. Baltimore should have ran the football and punted because the Pittsburgh offense wasn't having any success. The Ravens will make better decisions today, and I expect them to advance behind another dominant defensive effort. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) revenging a loss to a team in which it was held to less than 14 points, are 63-27 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season and 16-4 ATS the last 3 seasons. Bet Baltimore.

6* Eagles -2.5
The Key: The Packers may have won the season's first meeting, but they were torched once Michael Vick made his way onto the field. Teams coached by Andy Reid are 7-1 in playoff openers. That first loss came last season, and it isn't sitting well. Motivated by that loss, and by a loss to Green Bay earlier this season, I fully expect Philly to take care of business here. Green Bay's run defense has struggled this season, which opens the door for Philly to dominate the football with its potent rushing attack. Lay the number.

7* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Ravens -3
The Key: Baltimore has won on the road in the Wild Card round each of the last 2 seasons. That speaks volumes over a Kansas City team that hasn't played a postseason game since the 2006 season and hasn't won one since 1994. The Chiefs were 7-1 at home this season, but consider that they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Baltimore has been there and done that. Lay the points.

7* Wild Card *HEAVY HITTER* on Colts -2
The Key: The Jets were carved up by Tom Brady and Jay Cutler down the stretch, and I expect Peyton Manning to get the best of them today. With last season's 30-17 win in the AFC title game, the Colts improved to 5-1 against Rex Ryan defenses with Manning running the show. The reigning league MVP has thrown 12 TD strikes and only 2 picks in those games. The success of the Jets defense relies on blitzing, and Manning absolutely owns blitzing defenses. Lay the points with Colts tonight.

6* 2011 NFL Playoffs Opener on Saints -9.5
The Key: Don't see Seattle revenging its earlier season loss to New Orleans here. In fact, plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog, are 28-8 ATS since 1983. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by 11.7 points on average. Lay the points.

6* NFL Underdog Game of the Week on Titans +10
The Key: Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG), after a loss by 14 or more points, are an impressive 29-8 ATS since 1983. This system has produced a perfect 7-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

6* Giants -3.5
The Key: Off back-to-back losses, the Giants will be motivated to finish off the season with a win. That shouldn't be too much to ask against the lowly Redskins - a team they have defeated 5 straight times. The Giants have been an excellent investment on the road, going 27-11 ATS in their last 38 road games. They are even an awesome 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. New York won't be denied today against the worst defensive team in the NFL.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Month on Packers -9.5
The Key: Under coach Lovie Smith, Chicago is 0-9 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/attempt. The Bears losing by an of 25.9 to 13.4 in this situation. With Green Bay needing this one to make the playoffs, and with the Bears content to rest starters having already clinched a first-round bye, expect this one to be a one-sided affair. Lay the points.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Saints +3
The Key: Off a loss to Baltimore last week, expect the reigning Super Bowl champs to be out for blood tonight as they look to avenge an earlier season OT loss to Atlanta. Great spot to back the Saints considering they are 8-0 ATS following a road loss over the last 3 seasons. Take New Orleans.

6* NFL False Favorite on 49ers +2.5
The Key: The 49ers have battled all the way back from an 0-5 start to put themselves in position to win the NFC West. They won't let this opportunity get away. Motivated by a blowout loss to San Diego and with extra time to prepare, expect the Niners to win a sixth straight against St. Louis. SF is 10-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in dome games over the last 2 seasons. Take the 49ers.

6* Sunday Showcase on Jets +1
The Key: This game means a lot more to the Jets, who need it to clinch a playoff spot. The Bears have already clinched. The Jets are an awesome 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Plus, Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. Like the Jets in this spot with or without Sanchez.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* of the Week on Dolphins -3
The Key: The Dolphins are coming off a loss and that has been the best time to back them. In fact, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Also, Miami is 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games this season, bouncing back to win by an average score of 23.2 to 16.2. Detroit may be off back-to-back wins, but consider that it is just 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins, losing by an average score of 28.6 to 20.6 in these spots. I know Miami hasn't been good at home this year, but that's a fluke. Detroit hasn't done anything on the road in years. Lay the points.