7* Rams/Patriots Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER*  on New England -2.5 

The Key: Experience, experience, experience.  The Patriots will be playing in their 9th Super Bowl in the past 19 seasons.  It’s a remarkable feat and will never be matched.  Playing in their 3rd straight Super Bowl, and extra hungry off the loss to the Eagles last year, the Patriots will beat the Rams thanks to their experience in these big games.  I trust Tom Brady over Jared Goff in a big way.  Brady threw for 505 yards and the Patriots didn’t punt once again the Eagles last year, and Brady has been dynamite in the playoffs once again this season.  The Rams have been relying heavily on their running game to take the pressure off of Goff, but you can bet Belichick won’t allow the Rams to run all over them.  They stopped the Chiefs and the Chargers on the ground, and that will be the game plan coming in again.  Goff won’t be able to make enough plays to beat them.  Take New England.

7* Patriots/Chiefs AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -3 

The Key: Home teams have won 10 straight AFC/NFL Championship Games over the past 5 seasons.  The Patriots went just 3-5 on the road this year and only scored 21.6 PPG.  They will be hard-pressed to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company, who are scoring 35.1 PPG this year.  Tom Brady hasn’t been as efficient since losing Josh Gordon to suspension.  He averages 7.6/attempt with Gordon and 5.6/attempt without hime this year.  This play falls into a system that has been great in the playoffs.  Teams who scored 40 or more points in a win in their last game have gone 5-25-1 ATS in their next 31 playoff games, including 2-11-1 ATS in championship games.  Take Kansas City. 

7* Chargers/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +4 

The Key: You could make the argument that the Chargers are the best team in the NFL.  They are the only team that ranks in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  And they won 12 games this season, the same amount the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs did.  And they beat the Chiefs down the stretch.  In fact, the Chargers are 9-1 SU in their 10 road games this season playing their best football away from home.  They have beaten the Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens and Seahawks on the road this year.  The Patriots went just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final 4 games despite every game being huge for them in trying to earn a first-round bye.  They are beatable, especially since losing their top big play threat in Josh Gordon recently.  Rob Gronkowski only has 3 TD receptions this season and is really becoming a non-factor as injuries have clearly caught up with him.  The Patriots are beatable, and this is the best chance the Chargers have had to beat them in years. I expect them to capitalize.  Dogs are 14-1 ATS in the last 15 playoff games.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Chargers/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3 

The Key: The Chargers get the chance to face Lamar Jackson for a 2nd time, the only team in the NFL that gets to claim that.  And facing a strange offense like the one the Ravens run for a 2nd time is a huge advantage.  They actually held Jackson in check in the first meeting, but the offense was the problem as they were held to just 10 points.  Of course, an INT in the end zone and a fumble by Antonio Gates when the Chargers were driving to take the lead didn’t help matters.  They will make the adjustments, and continue their road success this season.  The Chargers are 8-1 on the road this year with wins at Seattle, Kansas City and Pittsburgh.  They have notoriously been a better road team than home team.  That trend continues Sunday.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Colts/Titans AFC South Game of the Year on Indianapolis -4.5 

The Key: Andrew Luck is 10-0 lifetime against the Tennessee Titans.  Few of these games have even been close, including the 38-10 beat down the Colts laid on the Titans earlier this season.  And I give the Titans almost zero chance of even being competitive in this game Sunday without Marcus Mariota.  The Colts have gone 8-1 in their last 9 games overall and are on a mission to make the playoffs.  They won’t be denied by the Titans tonight.  Take Indianapolis. 

6* Browns/Ravens AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cleveland +7 

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are closing strong.  They have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games overall, the same record as the Ravens in their last 6 games, yet the Browns are 7-point dogs here.  And the Browns will treat this game as their Super Bowl as they can actually finish the season with a winning record with a victory, which would be a major accomplishment.  Baltimore choked at home in a must-win situation against the Bengals in Week 17 last year.  They’ll be hard-pressed to win this game, let alone win it by more than a touchdown or more to beat us.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Jets/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +14 

The Key: The Jets have been very competitive here down the stretch.  They realistically should be 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, but since they are just 2-2-1 ATS, they are flying under the radar.  The Jets want to avenge their 13-27 home loss to the Patriots in which they were going in for a score late but threw an INT in the end zone that allowed the Patriots to cover as 13-point favorites.  They only lost 22-26 at Tennessee as 10.5-point dogs after leading most they way.  They won 27-23 at Buffalo as 4.5-point dogs.  They only lost 22-29 at home to Houston as 7-point dogs after blowing a lead with only four minutes left and giving up 10 unanswered points to close.  And last week they blew a 15-point 4th quarter lead and lost to the Packers 38-44 (OT) as 3-point home dogs.  They are playing well, especially since the return of Sam Darnold.  The Patriots aren’t the same juggernauts they’ve been in years’ past.  They are more vulnerable, going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games.  They used to dominate the month of December, but not any more.  New York is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 road games when revenging a loss where they scored less than 14 points.  The Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take New York. 

7* Broncos/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +3 

The Key: There is a good chance this will be the final game at the Oakland Coliseum ever.  The Raiders are looking for a place to play next year before moving to Vegas the following season.  From quotes I’ve ready from players and coaches alike, the Raiders will be up for this game.  And they’ve played well at home of late against two of the best teams in the NFL.  They upset the Steelers are double-digit underdogs and also only lost by 7 to the Chiefs as 14-plus point dogs.  The Broncos have lost 2 in a row and have officially been eliminated.  They have injuries on offense and defense that have really hampered them the last two weeks and they aren’t any healthier now.  The Raiders only lost 19-20 at Denver in their first meeting this season and will be looking to avenge that defeat.  Denver is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games off 2 or more straight ATS losses.  Take Oakland. 

7* SEA/KC Sunday Night Game of the Year on Seattle +2.5 

The Key: The Seahawks are tremendous as home underdogs.  And after losing last week, they need a win to clinch a playoff spot here.  And with the Chargers losing to the Ravens yesterday, the Chiefs can now relax knowing that they have a two-game lead on the Chargers for the division lead.  They can clinch at home against Oakland next week if need be.  The Seahawks will be the hungrier team given the situation.  And the Chiefs just aren’t playing well since losing three of their top playmakers on offense in Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware and Sammy Watkins.  They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, too, especially against the run.  They give up 5.0 yards per carry this season, and the Seahawks lead the NFL in rushing at 154.9 yards per game, so this is a bad matchup for Kansas City’s defense.  The Seahawks are 11-1-1 ATS since January of 2011 as a home underdog with 9 outright wins.  Seattle is 11-0 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a SU loss as a favorite.  Russell Wilson is 5-1 ATS in his career as a home dog.  Take Seattle. 

6* PIT/NO Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +7 

The Key: The situation favors the Steelers here Sunday.  The Ravens beat the Chargers yesterday and now if the Steelers don’t win, they’ll be trailing the Ravens in the AFC North.  They would also need help to make a wild card.  Basically, their season is on the line today, and they can’t afford to have a letdown after their big win over the Patriots last week.  The Saints can relax knowing that even if they lose this game, they could still beat the Panthers next week at home and clinch the No. 1 seed.  That’s because the Rams were upset as 13.5-point favorites by the Eagles last week.  The Saints caught a big break there.  And the Saints just aren’t playing well at all right now offensively as they putting up only 283 YPG in their last 4 games.  The Steelers have the better offense and the better defense this season and shouldn’t be catching this many points given the situation.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Ravens/Chargers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -3.5 

The Key: The Chargers have a huge rest advantage here after playing last Thursday, while the Ravens played on Sunday and will be on a short week with this game being played on Saturday.  The Ravens have to travel clearly across country as well.  And the Chargers got some great news this week as that extra rest has allowed their two best playmakers on offense to get healthy and return to the lineup this week.  Leading receiver Keenan Allen and leading rusher Melvin Gordon are both back.  The Ravens won’t have enough firepower to match the Chargers offense.  The Ravens are too predictable as they have run for a lot of yards lately, but not passed for many.  And it’s worth noting that the 5 defenses Lamar Jackson has faced since taking over as starter all rank 24th or worse in total defense.  So they have faced five bottom 10 defenses.  The Chargers have the 8th-best defense in the NFL, and it has been even better here down the stretch since Joey Bosa returned.  They held the high-powered Chiefs to just 294 total yards last week.  And they have allowed 65 or fewer rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games coming in.  They will be able to stop the run and make life difficult on Jackson.  The Chargers are 34-13 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Saints/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina +7 

The Key: Despite losing 5 straight, the Panthers are still very much alive for the playoffs.  They need to win out, and it starts with this game against the Saints at home Monday Night.  They only trail the Vikings by a game in the wild card and hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles.  The Panthers are 5-1 at home this year and scoring 30.8 PPG on their home turf.  They have what it takes to hang with the Saints, whose offense has sputtered in recent weeks with just 262 YPG in their last 3 games.  And the Panthers will certainly be revenge-minded after losing all 3 meetings with the Saints last year, including playoffs.  Ron Rivera is 22-6 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Panthers.  Take Carolina. 

6* Eagles/Rams Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Philadelphia +14 

The Key: This line has gotten out of hand.  Oddsmakers have adjusted too much for the Carson Wentz injury.  It was obvious they didn’t need Wentz when they won the Super Bowl last year, and this line has jumped from 8 up to 13 and 14 in some places since it was announced that Wentz would be out.  Nick Foles is clearly a capable backup after what he did in the Super Bowl run last year.  And he’s out to prove to other teams that he can be their starter, and he’s a consummate pro wanting to help his teammates get back to the playoffs.  After all, the Eagles are still only a half-game out of the wild card even with how poorly this season has gone thus far.  The Rams have been overvalued for weeks.  They are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Rams are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record.  The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Rams.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Patriots/Steelers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +3 

The Key: The Steelers need to right the ship quickly off 3 straight upset losses they had no business losing.  They should have beaten the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders, but late miscues cost them in all 3 games.  They are back home here today and ready to exorcize their demons against the Patriots.  The Pats are only 3-4 on the road this season, so they are beatable.  The Steelers are outscoring their opponents by 8.3 PPG at home this year behind an offense that puts up 34.5 PPG at home.  Mike Tomlin is 11-3 ATS off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Sunday NFL *Upset Special* on New York Giants +2 

The Key: The Giants are 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  And they blew a 16-point lead on the road against the Eagles in their only loss.  This is a team playing with a lot of confidence right now and still believing they are alive for the playoffs.  The Titans are only 2-5 on the road this season, where they’re scoring 16.4 PPG.  They should not be favored in this matchup.  Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games following 2 or more straight up wins.  Take New York. 

6* Texans/Jets AFC *CA$H COW* on New York +7 

The Key: The Houston Texans are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 9-1 in their last 10 games overall.  They lost outright at home to the Colts last week as 4-point favorites.  Consider that in Houston’s previous 6 road games this season, they haven’t been favored by more than 3 points once.  And now they’re laying a touchdown on the road to the Jets.  This is a Jets team that has been impressive since Sam Darnold returned from injury.  They led most the way at Tennessee two weeks ago and only lost 22-26 as 10-point dogs, easily covering the spread.  Then last week they had a nice 27-23 road win at Buffalo as 4.5-point dogs.  And they should be able to stay within 7 points of Houston with a legit chance to pull the upset this week.  The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss.  The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 December games.  The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record.  The dog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take New York. 

7* Vikings/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3.5 

The Key: I strongly believe the Vikings are the better team in this matchup and we’re getting 3.5 points with them.  This line should be closer to pick ‘em.  The Vikings have outgained 6 of their last 8 opponents and they are a legit team with a legit defense and a solid offense.  Sure, the Seahawks have on 3 in a row coming in, but they were outgained in 2 of those games by a combined 200 yards by the 49ers and Panthers.  The Seahawks have now been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games coming in.  The Vikings are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Seattle is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more.  Mike Zimmer is 50-27 ATS as the coach of the Vikings.  Take Minnesota. 

6* Rams/Bears Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Chicago +3 

The Key: The Chicago Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Rams are in for a rude awakening against Chicago here tonight.  The Bears have forced more turnovers (30) than any team in the NFL.  They will be ready for Jared Goff and company.  Plus, they get Mitch Trubisky back at quarterback for this game after he missed the past two games.  The Bears should be able to take away Todd Gurley as they give up just 86 rushing yards per game this season, and just 66 rushing yards per game at home.  The Rams are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bears are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, including 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Chicago.

6* AFC Game of the Day on Oakland Raiders +10 

The Key: Big Ben just hasn’t been a quarterback that you can trust when on the road and laying points.  And now his job got a whole lot more difficult with the injury to James Connor.  Roethlisberger is 1-9 ATS as a double-digit road favorite lifetime.  And in six career starts against Oakland, Big Ben has gone just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS.  The Raiders have covered the spread 2 of the last 3 weeks and only lost by 7 to the Chiefs last week at home.  They can stay within 10 points of the Steelers, who lost at home to the Chiefs earlier this season.  Take Oakland. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on San Francisco 49ers +3.5 

The Key: The Broncos are missing two key players this week that they had last week and during this run they’ve made.  Leading receiver Emmanuel Sanders is out with a torn Achilles suffered in practice earlier this week.  And top corner Chris Harris is out as well.  The loss of Sanders hurts because the Broncos traded away Demaryius Thomas and were already thin at receiver.  The 49ers have outgained their opponents by a total of 174 yards on the season.  They are clearly better than a 2-10 team, and I think they get to taste victory here against the Broncos Sunday.  The Broncos are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force one or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.  They are losing by 12.3 PPG on average to these teams.  Take San Francisco. 

7* Redskins/Eagles NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -6 

The Key: The Eagles are in true must-win mode here.  They can’t lose this game because they’d be 5-7 and two games back of the 7-5 Cowboys with a head-to-head loss to them already, so essentially three games back.  The Redskins could afford a loss and still recover.  The Eagles can’t.  And I like the momentum the Eagles have from coming from 19-3 down to beat the Giants last week, 25-22.  Now they should be able to win by a touchdown or more against a banged-up Redskins team playing with a backup QB.  The injuries have taken their toll on the Redskins.  They are 1-3 in their last 4 games overall and their lone win against the Bucs was a fluke.  The Bucs had 501 total yards but managed just 3 points.  Figure that one out.  Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a game where they committed non turnovers against an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin or worse last game are 25-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Philadelphia. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Falcons -2.5 

The Key: The Falcons come in on extra rest having played last Thursday.  They had their chances to beat the Saints on the road but squandered several opportunities with 4 turnovers, including 3 deep in New Orleans territory.  But they’re back home and rested this week and should be primed for a big performance against the Ravens.  This is a Ravens team that is getting too much love for wins over the Bengals and Raiders in consecutive weeks at home.  But now they are back on the road where they are 2-3 this season.  The Ravens are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win by more than 14 points.  Take Atlanta. 

6* AFC Game of the Day on Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 

The Key: The Bengals are rejuvenated now with Jeff Driskel replacing Andy Dalton at quarterback.  They had a huge second half against the Browns last week with Driskel under center.  And now he gets another weapon in his arsenal this week with the much-anticipated return of AJ Green.  The Broncos are getting too much respect from the books after their improbable wins over the Chargers and Steelers as underdogs the last 2 weeks.  Now they’re being asked to go on the road and win by a margin as 4.5-point favorites.  This is not their preferred role.  These are two 5-6 teams fighting to stay alive for the playoffs, and we’re getting the home team at an excellent price.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Saints/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +8 

The Key: The Saints are doing something that is rarely seen in the NFL.  They come in 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  But now the love for the Saints is getting to be too much as they’re being asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road here against the Cowboys.  And this is a Cowboys team that has played much better since trading for Amari Cooper.  They have won and covered 3 straight coming in.  Their offense is good enough to hang with the Saints, and they have the 3rd-best scoring defense in the NFL giving up only 19.4 PPG.  The Saints are not good on defense, and the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against teams who give up 350 or more yards per game.  Take Dallas. 

7* Titans/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -4 

The Key: The home team has won and covered 5 straight in this series between the Titans and Texans.  The Texans have won each of their last 6 meetings with the Titans all by 6 points or more.  And those 6 wins have come by an incredible 20 points per game.  With the Texans looking to avenge their 17-20 loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season, I think they’ll have no problem covering this 4-point spread at home tonight.  And Marcus Mariota is far from 100% as he was questionable all week leading up to this game.  Take Houston. 

7* Packers/Vikings Sunday Night Game of the Year on Minnesota -3 

The Key: The Vikings are as healthy as they’ve been since Week 1.  The Packers have several key players questionable or out for this game.  And the Vikings are sure to be hungry off a loss to the Bears last week. The Packers have lost 3 of their last 4 coming in and just aren’t a very good team.  Aaron Rodgers lacks weapons because of all the injuries, and the defense remains poor.  The Packers have the biggest home/road split of any team in the NFL over the past decade.  They are great at home but terrible on the road.  The Packers are 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 8.2 PPG.  No team has been as good as the Vikings at home over the past several season.  Minnesota is 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.  Mike Zimmer is 27-11 ATS in home games as the coach of Minnesota.  This line of -3 seems very cheap Sunday night.  Take Minnesota. 

6* Giants/Eagles NFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +5.5 

The Key: Saquon Barkley guaranteed the Giants would win their final 8 games coming out of their bye.  And don’t look now, but they’re 2-0 since that guarantee with a realistic path to win the NFC East if they keep winning.  And now they face the Eagles, who are coming off back-to-back ugly losses to the Cowboys and Saints, including their 7-48 loss at New Orleans last week.  The Eagles are marred by injuries to several of their best players.  Their secondary is a mess, and even Eli Manning should be able to light it up.  I also like that this is a revenge game for the Giants after their 13-34 home loss to the Eagles earlier this season.  That was a very misleading final as the Giants actually outgained the Eagles 401 to 379 in that contest.  The Giants are 40-21 ATS in their last 61 road games off two or more consecutive wins.  Philadelphia is 0-10 ATS vs. teams who allow 6.0 or more yards per play over the last 3 years.  Take New York. 

6* Seahawks/Panthers NFC *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3 

The Key: The Carolina Panthers have had a huge home/road split this season.  They are just 1-4 on the road, but 5-0 at home.  And now they’re home here against the Seahawks Sunday.  I think we get a big effort from the Panthers off 2 consecutive road losses.  Players will have coach Ron Rivera’s back after his decision to go for a 2-point conversion to try and beat the Lions last week.  Rivera is 22-4 ATS off a road loss as the Panthers’ coach, including 9-1 ATS off an upset road loss.  Take Carolina. 

7* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7 

The Key: The Cowboys win two games on the road and all of a sudden they are laying 7 points at home to the Washington Redskins.  They haven’t been favored by 7 points or more in any game this season.  And the Cowboys are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite when playing on less than 6 days’ rest.  Colt McCoy is one of the best backups in the league and has even guided the Redskins to a win in Dallas previously.  Take Washington. 

6* Titans/Colts AFC South *CA$H COW* on Indianapolis -1 

The Key: Andrew Luck is 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in in his last 9 meetings with the Titans.  He makes all the difference for this team.  And the Colts are flying under the radar right now.  They have won their last 3 games by a combined 49 points.  Now they catch the Titans in a tough spot off their win over the Patriots last week.  They are in line for a letdown here.  Take Indianapolis. 

6* Cowboys/Falcons NFC *CA$H COW* on Dallas +3.5 

The Key: The Cowboys got the statement win they needed with a 27-20 upset as 7.5-point road dogs at Philadelphia last week.  It gave them the confidence they needed to make a push for the NFC East title in the second half of the season.  And now they face a reeling Falcons team that just lost to the lowly Brown 16-28 last week.  The Cowboys have a much improved offense with Amari Cooper now, giving them the threat on the outside they have been missing.  The Cowboys should be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a Falcons defense that is yielding 28.2 PPG and 415 YPG.  They are giving up 5.2 yards per carry and 70.4% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. teams who allow 375 or more yards per game.  Take Dallas. 

7* NFC Game of the Month on New York Giants -1 

The Key: Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley both stated that the Giants are going to win their remaining 8 games and salvage their season.  While I don’t believe them, I do think they’ll win this week against the Bucs.  And they won their first game back from the bye over the 49ers to start the streak.  It just shows that they aren’t quitting.  And it’s worth noting they played the toughest schedule in the NFL in the first half of the season.  It gets easier now, and it started with the 49ers and moves on to the Bucs this week.  Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall.  The Bucs managed just 3 points in a 16-3 loss to an injury-ravaged Redskins team ripe for the picking.  Things are not good in Tampa Bay right now.  The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Bucs.  Take New York. 

7* Giants/49ers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3 

The Key: I know the 49ers aren’t going to quit.  They show up every week looking to win.  And it paid off last week with a 34-3 victory over the Oakland Raiders.  That coincided with Nick Mullens taking over for the terrible CJ Beathard at quarterback.  And Mullens has now earned another start after tossing 3 touchdown passes in the win.  The Giants are still going with Eli Manning.  He has started every game and the Giants are 1-7.  Their offense is about as inept as any in the league because of Eli and a terrible offensive line.  The 49ers have the better offense and the better defense, and they’re home on Monday Night Football.  I think the price is right to lay the field goal with them here.  The Giants are 1-9 ATS in all games with a line of +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.  The 49ers are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 MNF games.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Seahawks/Rams NFC West *CA$H COW* on Seattle +10 

The Key: Russell Wilson has never been a double-digit underdog in his career.  And he has only been a dog of 7.5 or more 3 times.  It’s no surprise that the Seahawks are 3-0 ATS in those 3 games.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the Seahawks here.  They just had their bye 2 weeks ago and came back from it with a 28-14 win at Detroit.  They should still be fresh.  The Rams haven’t had their bye yet and are starting to show signs of wearing down, especially defensively where they are allowing 27.3 PPG in their last 6 games overall.  And that’s why the Rams are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.  Only one of those 6 games resulted in a double-digit win by the Rams.  The Rams are also 2-10 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who complete 64% of their passes or better over the last 3 seasons.  Their pass defense has been leaky, and Russell Wilson should be able to exploit it.  Take Seattle. 

6* Patriots/Titans AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +7 

The Key: The Patriots have to be getting tired.  They haven’t had their bye yet and they are now overvalued after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They are being asked to lay a full touchdown on the road against the Titans today.  This is a Titans team that is fresh after having a bye 2 weeks ago.  And they came back with an impressive 28-14 road win at Dallas as 4-point underdogs last week.  They have a very good defense that is giving up only 17.6 PPG this season.  That gives them a chance to be competitive here against the Patriots.  And Marcus Mariota torched that Dallas secondary.  He should be able to find plenty of holes in a Patriots defense that is allowing 381 YPG this season.  The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The Titans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Tennessee. 

6* Packers/Patriots Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Green Bay +6 

The Key: Getting Aaron Rodgers as a 6-point underdog against the Patriots is a nice proposition.  That’s especially the case when you consider Rodgers is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog of 6 points or more in his career.  It doesn’t happen often.  It happened last week and the Packers nearly won outright at the Rams, losing by just 2 points.  They would have won the game outright had Ty Montgomery not fumbled the kickoff in the closing minutes.  I actually like that the Packers lost that game because it means they’ll be playing with even more of a sense of urgency today against the Pats.  Take Green Bay. 

6* Bucs/Panthers NFC South *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +6.5 

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are a team I want to back with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback.  He utilizes the plethora of weapons the Bucs have at receiver much better than Jameis Winston does.  He’s not afraid to go deep.  He led the Bucs back from 21 points down to nearly beat the Bengals last week, losing on a last-second field goal.  And with Fitz the Bucs are never out of any game.  That makes them scary as 6.5-point dogs to the Panthers today.  The back door will always be open if we need it.  Tampa is 8-0 ATS off a game where 70 points or more were scored in their last 8 tries.  The Panthers are 0-6 ATS off 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.  Take Tampa Bay. 

7* AFC Game of the Year on Cleveland Browns +9 

The Key: Backing teams in their first game with a new head coach is certainly a profitable move long-term.  It gives that team new life and new hope, and the first game out is the time to back them.  I’ll back the Browns today because of it.  The Chiefs are 31st in total defense this season, which makes them vulnerable despite having one of the top offenses in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS off 4 straight games where they gained 6 YPP or more in their last 10 tries.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Giants/Falcons NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +4.5 

The Key: The Falcons haven’t been covering this season because they can’t play defense.  They are 2-4 ATS, but their two covers came by 2 points over the Falcons and by 2 points over the Bucs.  That Bucs win last week needed a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant in the closing seconds to cover the 3-point spread in a 5-point win.  And Bryant hurt his hamstring on the kick and will miss this game.  As far as kickers go, Bryant is one of the most valuable in the league.  And his role is even larger in recent seasons with all of the red zone struggles by the Falcons.  But the biggest reason I’m fading the Falcons this week is their defense.  They are giving up 32 PPG and 418 YPG this season.  They are missing 3 defensive starters due to injury and haven’t been able to replace them.  The Giants have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  The Giants are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a Thursday game.  The Giants are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

6* Bengals/Chiefs Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Kansas City -6 

The Key: The Chiefs have played 4 of their first 6 games on the road this season, yet they’ve gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS.  Oddsmakers just can’t seem to price them right.  Their only loss was 40-43 to New England on the road last week.  They should get right here against the Bengals.  The Chiefs are 2-0 at home this season and an 11-point win over the 49ers and a 16-point win over the Jaguars.  The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Take Kansas City. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit Lions -3 

The Key: This is a great situation for the Detroit Lions Sunday.  They are coming off their bye and feeling good after beating the Packers 31-23 going into their bye.  They have gotten healthy and have been an underrated team, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They can get back to .500 on the season with a win here Sunday and will be hungry to do so.  The Dolphins are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-2 start this season.  But they’ve been winning with smoke and mirrors as all four wins were one-score games, and they came against the Titans, Jets, Raiders and Bears.  They stepped up in class and lost to the Patriots 7-38 and to the Bengals 17-27.  The Lions crushed the Patriots earlier this season.  Brock Osweiler will get the start against Sunday, and I’ll gladly fade him knowing that it’s unlikely he puts two good games in a row together.  Matt Patricia will make life tough on Osweiler with two weeks to get ready to face him.  The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Dolphins are 17-45-3 ATS in their last 65 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Detroit. 

7* Titans/Chargers London *Early Riser* on Los Angeles -6.5 

The Key: The Chargers are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are 4-2 on the season with their only two losses coming to the Rams and Chiefs, who are the two best teams in the NFL to this point.  They crushed the Raiders by 16 at home before an even more impressive 38-14 road win over the Browns in their last two games.  They should have another blowout victory over the Titans here.  The Titans lost 21-0 last week to the Ravens and just have no semblance of an offense whatsoever.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL at 14.5 PPG and 263 YPG on offense.  Philip Rivers and company are scoring 29.2 PPG with 412 YPG on offense.  I just don’t see how the Titans can hang with Rivers and company here.  The Chargers are 29-4 ATS in their last 33 vs. AFC South teams.  The Titans are 17-42-4 ATS in their last 63 vs. AFC teams.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Broncos/Cardinals NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -1 

The Key: We’re getting the better team here in the Broncos where they just have to win the game to cover the spread.  I’ll take it.  The Broncos need a win here after 4 straight losses against a tough schedule where they were underdogs in all 4 games.  But here they’re back to a favorite against the worst team in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals.  It’s a Cardinals team that is putting up just 13.7 PPG and 220 YPG this season on offense.  You can’t win in today’s NFL with that kind of offense.  And now the Cardinals will be down two starting offensive linemen in Justin Push and Mike Iupati.  That doesn’t bode well for them against this dominant Denver defensive line.  The Broncos are moving the ball just fine averaging 388 YPG and 6.2 YPP.  The Broncos have won 8 of their last 9 meetings with the Cardinals for an 89% success rate.  Take Denver. 

7* 49ers/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -9 

The Key: The Packers are 2-0-1 at home this season.  The last time they were at home they blew out the Bills 22-0.  And they’ll be hungry for a victory today after giving the game away against Detroit last week in a 23-31 road loss.  They outgained the Lions by 257 yards in that game a week after outgaining the Bills by 276 yards.  But they missed out on 10 possible points from kicker Mason Crosby and lost he turnover battle 3-0.  The 49ers just lost by 10 at home to the lowly Cardinals of all teams last week.  The 49ers are now 1-12 in games in which Jimmy G doesn’t start over the last 2 seasons, and most of those losses can be attributed to the inept CJ Beathard.  It doesn’t help that the 49ers have all kinds of injuries at receiver and along the offensive line as well.  I don’t expect them to be able to stay within double-digits of the Packers tonight.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 October games.  The Packers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 October games.  The Packers are 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the 49ers.  Take Green Bay. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +2 

The Key: Big Ben and the Steelers own the Bengals and should not be underdogs in this AFC North battle.  Especially not since they need the win more trailing the Bengals by 1.5 games right now.  The Steelers have won 6 straight meetings with the Bengals.  They are 8-1 in their last 9 trips to Cincinnati as well.  And Big Ben is 25-4-1 in the state of Ohio in his career.  The Bengals just don’t match up well with the Steelers at all, and they are very fortunate to be 4-1 this season.  They get a dose of reality Sunday.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* PHI/NY NFC East Game of the Month on New York +3 

The Key: Despite being 1-4, the Giants are actually just one game out of first place in the NFC East.  It’s been a bad division and the Giants at least still feel like they’re in it.  So they won’t be giving up on their season any time soon.  And they showed a lot of heart by coming back from 17-3 down to actually take a lead in Carolina on Sunday.  But they lost 31-33 on a 63-yard field goal.  The Giants will be hungry to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles tonight.  The Eagles are getting everyone’s best shot, and they aren’t handling it too well.  They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games with their only win coming 20-16 over the Colts.  They are two goal-line stands away from being 0-5.  They have injuries everywhere, especially on offense that are holding them back.  And the Super Bowl hangover just appears to be real with this squad.  They should not be 3-point road favorites over the Giants this week.  Thursday NFL home teams are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  It’s a huge advantage to play at home on a short week.  The Giants are 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Take New York. 

7* Redskins/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +6 

The Key: The Redskins have put up the kind of numbers this season that should make you think twice about them.  Most write them off as just a mediocre team.  But the numbers say otherwise.  They are averaging 383 yards per game on offense while giving up a mere 278 yards per game on defense.  They are gaining 5.9 yards per play on offense and giving up 4.9 yards per play on defense.  You won’t find many teams that can claim having anything close to that good of numbers thus far.  And now the Redskins are fresh because they had a bye last week.  The Saints lost outright to the Bucs at home and beat the Browns by a field goal in their two home games this season.  I can’t see them winning this game by a touchdown or more against the Redskins, who are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Saints.  Take Washington. 

6* Jaguars/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -3 

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  Oddsmakers just haven’t caught up with how good they are.  And now as only 3-point home favorites over the Jaguars Sunday, I still don’t think they have adjusted enough.  This is strength vs. strength.  And the last 6 times the leagues No. 1 offense has faced the No. 1 defense, the offense has won 5 times in the regular season.  I’ll take the Chiefs’ offense over this Jacksonville defense, which has faced an awful slate of opposing offenses to this point.  The Jaguars are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in their previous game.  The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against excellent passing offenses that average 260 or more passing yards per game.  Bets on teams who are coming off 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers against an opponent that is coming off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Kansas City. 

6* Packers/Lions NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +1 

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have some serious injuries right now at wide receiver.  There’s no way they should be favored on the road over the Lions with these injuries.  Devante Adams, Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb are all questionable to play this week for the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers could be short on weapons.  The Lions are actually 5-4 SU in their last 9 meetings with the Packers so they have figured them out.  And this is a huge game for the Lions after a 1-3 start as they need a win to save their season.  The beat the Patriots 26-10 at home in Week 3 to show that they can come up big in big games.  And they were beating Dallas on the road last week until the last few seconds.  Bets against road teams with a line of +3 to -3 after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent that’s off a loss by 3 points or less are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  Take Detroit. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Steelers -3 

The Key: The Falcons and Steelers are two similar teams in that they both have great offenses and suspect defenses.  But the Steelers can get stops, and I’m not sure the Falcons can due to all their injuries right now.  The Falcons are without 4 starters in D in S Keanu Neal, LB Deion Jones, S Ricardo Allen and DT Grady Jarrett.  Top pass rusher Vic Beasley is also questionable with an ankle injury.  The Falcons have given up 43 points to the Saints and 37 to the Bengals in consecutive weeks.  Ben Roethlisberger and company should have their way with this Atlanta defense too.  Pittsburgh is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division foe as a favorite.  It is coming back to win by 9.7 points per game in this situation.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Colts/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -10 

The Key: This is such a tough spot for the Colts.  They are on a short week and coming off an overtime game against the Texans.  And they now have to travel to New England.  Home teams have dominated Thursday games for the last several years because it’s such an advantage for them.  And add in the fact that the Colts have a massive injury report and I just don’t see them even being competitive tonight.  The Patriots are 7-0 in their last 7 meetings with the Colts.  They have won the last 5 meetings by an average of 24.6 PPG.  Enough said.  Take New England. 

6* AFC Game of the Day on New York Jets +7.5 

The Key: The Jaguars managed just 6 points last week in a loss to the Titans at home.  They have some key injuries right now that won’t help them the rest of the way.  They lost left tackle Cam Robinson to a torn ACL.  And Blake Bortles just doesn’t have many weapons outside.  Leonard Fournette is still banged up.  I just don’t think Jacksonville can be laying these kinds of prices with how poor their offense is.  And the Jets are in a good spot here with extra rest having played last Thursday in a tough loss at Cleveland.  They’ll be looking to bounce back here and have played well in their two road games, also winning 48-17 at Detroit.  The Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The Jaguars are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 September games.  Take New York. 

6* Sunday NFL *Upset Special* on Houston Texans +1 

The Key: The Texans need a win and should get one here Sunday against a Colts team that they are clearly betting than.  The Texans are outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game this season, so they are clearly better than their 0-3 record.  The Colts are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and are fortunate to be 1-2 as they have the stats of an 0-3 team.  The Texans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 4.  The Colts are 2-6 in their last 8 against the AFC South.  The road team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Houston. 

7* Vikings/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +7.5 

The Key: The Vikings are simply catching too many points tonight against the Los Angeles Rams.  The Vikings have been downgraded big time by the public after their upset loss to the Bills last week.  But that loss will only have them even more hungry to bounce back tonight.  And the Rams could not be viewed any higher in the public’s eyes after their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  But they have beaten three teams in the Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers who have a combined one win between them this season.  Minnesota shut down the Rams 24-7 at home last year.  Jared Goff hasn’t seen a defense nearly as strong as the one he will be up against tonight.  The Vikings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  The Vikings are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games overall.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Steelers/Bucs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -1 

The Key: Before the season, the Steelers would have been close to a touchdown favorite here at Tampa Bay.  But after two weeks, the perception of the Steelers is way down because they tied the Browns and lost to the Chiefs.  But it’s clear the Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, and the Browns are one of the most improved teams in the league.  The Bucs are 2-0 out of nowhere with upset wins over both the Saints and Eagles.  Their perception is through the roof right now.  They are overvalued.  Pittsburgh is still the better of these two teams.  They have the better defense and the better offense.  And now they are playing extra hungry looking for their first win of the year.  Expect the Steelers to come out like gangbusters in this one.  Mike Tomlin is 17-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of the Steelers.  The Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a. Winning home record.  The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Chargers/Rams *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Chargers +7 

The Key: The Rams are getting too much hype right now.  They beat two bad teams in the Raiders and Cardinals and now everyone is crowning them Super Bowl champs already.  And they’re being priced like is as they are now the Super Bowl favorites, and they are 7-point favorites here against a good Chargers team.  The Rams won’t have much of a home-field advantage in this one as both of these teams are based in Los Angeles.  And the Chargers have notoriously been a better road team than home team.  The Chargers are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Take the Chargers. 

6* Bengals/Panthers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are getting too much love now after their 2-0 start.  But they were outgained by 50 yards by the Colts and by 52 yards by the Ravens.  They are fortunate to be 2-0.  The Panthers will be hungry for a win here off their loss to the Falcons last week.  They beat the Cowboys 16-8 at home in Week 1 and are a great home team.  RB Joe Mixon, LB Vontaze Burfict and C Billy Price will all beat out for the Bengals this week.  The Panthers are 58-35 ATS in their last 93 games off a road loss.  Ron Rivera is an incredible 20-3 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Carolina.  The Panthers are winning by 7.8 PPG in this spot.  Take Carolina. 

6* Broncos/Ravens AFC *CA$H COW* on Baltimore -5 

The Key: The Ravens are in a supreme spot here.  They have an extra 3 days of rest and preparation after losing to the Bengals on the road last Thursday.  Now they return home fresh and ready to go.  They beat the Bills 47-3 at home in Week 1 and have a big home-field advantage.  The Broncos will be hitting the road for the first time after narrow home wins over the Raiders and Seahawks by a combined 4 points.  I believe the Broncos to be overvalued off their 2-0 start.  The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss.  The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with Denver.  Take Baltimore. 

7* Jets/Browns AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3 

The Key: The Browns are just 1-32-1 in all games over the past 3 seasons.  However, I believe they are favored for a reason here.  They took the Steelers to overtime and tied them.  They should have beaten the Saints last week in a 21-18 loss in which they lost 8 points by the kicker, who was subsequently cut.  This Browns defense is loaded.  Greg Williams loves to blitz, and blitzing rookie quarterbacks is a winning strategy in the NFL.  This will be Sam Darnold’s stiffest test yet after facing weak Lions and Dolphins defenses in his first 2 games.  The Browns have forced 8 turnovers thus far and will force a few more here against Darnold and company.  Cleveland’s offense takes care of the football behind Tyrod Taylor.  That will be the difference in this game.  Take Cleveland. 

7* AFC East Game of the Month on New York Jets -2.5 

The Key: I’m a believer in the Jets.  They beat the Lions 48-17 in Week 1 in a dominant defensive effort, an impressive debut of Sam Darnold, and a solid rushing game that produced 169 yards.  Now the Jets head home for their first home game this season, and the fans will be packing the stands in Week 2 to see their rookie QB first-hand.  And the Jets are only 2.5-point favorites in this matchup with the Dolphins, who I believe to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.  And the Dolphins were gassed in the 4th quarter of that 7-hour marathon against the Titans that was continually delayed by lightning last week.  They won 27-20, but now they hit the road for the first time.  The Jets are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days’ rest over the last 2 seasons.  The Jets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 road games.  Take New York. 

6* Chiefs/Steelers AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +5.5 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers are very beatable this season, especially early on.  That was evident last week when the Browns took them to overtime in a tie.  The Steelers turned the ball over 6 times.  They clearly miss Le’Veon Bell and his leadership and passing skills out of the backfield.  Big Ben suffered an elbow injury and didn’t practice until late in the week.  The defense was awful last year once Ryan Shazier went out and they didn’t replace him this offseason.  CB Joe Haden is doubtful this week, and you don’t want to be without a starting corner when going up against this explosive Chiefs offense.  Guard David DeCastro is doubtful as well.  The Chiefs rolled the Chargers 38-28 and got explosive play after explosive play from Tyreke Hill and company.  The Chiefs have as many weapons as any team in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS after allowing 400 or more yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.  Kansas City is 8-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 3 years.  Take Kansas City. 

6* Browns/Saints Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans -9 

The Key: The New Orleans Saints will be hungry to bounce back with a blowout victory over the Cleveland Browns today following their upset loss to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 1.  This is a Cleveland defense that gave up 472 total yards to the Steelers last week.  They were +5 in turnover differential and still could only get a tie out of it.  And they were lucky to even get that as they trailed 21-7 in the 4th quarter as their offense just couldn’t get going.  Then Josh Gordon had a late TD catch to tie.  But now Gordon has been ruled out for this game and the Browns are looking to trade him.  They have some the worst weapons in the NFL, and there’s no way Tyrod Taylor and company can hang with the Saints in this one.  And they’re missing their leader on defense in LB Christian Kirksey, who is the QB of their D.  The Browns are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games overall.  Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Browns are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC opponents.  The Browns are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games on field turf.  Take New Orleans.

7* Ravens/Bengals AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore +1 

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are now 6-0 this season when you count the preseason.  They are not only winning, they are dominating.  They have won those 6 games by an average of nearly 17 points per game, including their 47-3 drubbing of the Bills last week.  They lost to Cincinnati in their season finale last year with a trip to the playoffs on the line.  It’s revenge time here for the Ravens, who are clearly the better team and simply just have to win this game to cover.  Take Baltimore. 

7* Rams/Raiders MNF *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5.5 

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams should be one of the best teams in the NFL this season, parlaying 2017 Coach of the Year Sean McVay’s big season last year into another great one this year.  They added Brandon Cooks and now have as many weapons as any team in the NFL offensively.  Defensively, they added DT Suh and CB’s Peters and Talib.  They should also have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Raiders are in transition in Jon Gruden’s first season and won’t be that good this year.  They traded away their best defensive player in Kahlil Mack, and many teammates weren’t happy about it.  I just don’t think the Raiders have the offensive punch to hang with the Rams, or the defense to slow them down in Week 1 here.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* NFL Game of the Week on Denver Broncos -2.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2018.  They were 3rd in total defense last year and only got better this offseason with the addition of the 5th overall pick in Bradley Chubb.  Teams are going to regret passing up on him.  The pass rush and secondary are the strengths of the Broncos, and that makes this a great matchup for them against a suspect Seattle offensive line.  Russell Wilson is in line for a rough game Sunday in Denver.  The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Pete Carroll.  Take Denver. 

7* Jaguars/Steelers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -7 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers committed 5 turnovers and gave up two pick-6’s the first time these teams played.  But the Steelers have gone 10-1 since that loss to the Jaguars in Week 5.  And the only loss was to the Patriots on a controversial call that overturned a game-winning TD.  The Steelers are now basically fully healthy going into the playoffs for the first time in a long time.  They have a high-powered offense and an improved defense.  Blake Bortles won’t be able to keep up with a motivated Big Ben who will want to make amends for that 5-pick effort back in Week 5.  And Le’Veon Bell is primed for a huge game as he gets the bulk of the action in this game against a Jags run D that has been sub-par all season.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.  Their experience wins out in this one.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Titans/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -13

The Key: No analysis Saturday due to a funeral

7* Panthers/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -6.5 

The Key: The Saints have owned the Panthers.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Carolina.  They have scores 31 and 34 points in their two meetings this season, outscoring the Panthers 65-34 in the process.  Their offense has had no trouble moving the ball and scoring points on Carolina’s defense.  That will continue here inside a hostile atmosphere in New Orleans.  Cam Newton went just 14-of-34 passing last week against the Falcons, and I don’t think the Panthers have the firepower on offense to keep up.  Newton has only thrown for over 185 yards twice in his last 9 games.  The Saints are 20-0 SU & 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 home games when they have a winning record.  It’s just a completely different atmosphere inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome when they are good.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Falcons/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +6 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons won 10 games this season despite playing the 4th most difficult schedule in the NFL.  The Rams had a great season but only had to face the 17th schedule.  And teams that played the tougher schedule in these wild card games are 41-19 straight up and 41-18-1 against the spread.  They are 24-5 straight up and 23-5-1 against the number when the difference is 10 or more.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Bills/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -2.5 

The Key: The Bills must win to get into the playoffs.  They need some help, but first they must win.  The Dolphins can’t be trusted to offer much resistance with the way they are playing down the stretch.  They have gone just 2-7 in their last 9 games overall.  The Bills have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss coming to the Patriots on the road, and that game was tied 16-16 in the 3rd quarter and the Bills really got screwed by the refs having a touchdown called back that changed the complexion of the game.  The Bills just beat the Dolphins 24-16 at home a few weeks back.  Miami is 1-9 ATS off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons.  The Dolphins are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  I’ll side with the more motivated Bills in this matchup.  Take Buffalo. 

6* Cowboys/Eagles NFC East *CA$H COW* on Dallas -3 

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are more concerned with keeping guys healthy going into the postseason.  They just locked up the No. 1 seed so they have literally nothing to play for.  The Cowboys want to finish strong as evidenced by several quotes from their two offensive leaders in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott earlier in the week.  I think they roll the Eagles’ scrubs, who could enter this game as early as the first quarter.  Take Dallas.

6* Jets/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +15.5 

The Key: No team has played the Patriots tougher than the Jets over the last few years.  In fact, the Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Patriots.  They have only lost by more than 7 points once in their last 9 meetings.  Now they’re catching 15.5 points against the Patriots today and it’s simply too much.  Take New York. 

7* Steelers/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +9 

The Key: I question the motivation of the Pittsburgh Steelers today.  They blew their game against the Patriots and lost a game that decided the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  And with the Jaguars losing yesterday, the Steelers can afford a loss today and still get a first-round bye by winning next week against the lowly Browns at home.  They will suffer a hangover from that loss to the Patriots last week.  Plus they don’t have two of their best players in Antonio Brown and Ryan Shazier.  And the Steelers have several close wins against bad teams of late as 6 of their last 7 games have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Bets on teams that were beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last 7 games against an opponent that went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games are 39-13 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Texans couldn’t be more undervalued than they are right now off 3 straight double-digit losses.  Take Houston. 

6* Sunday NFL *BLOWOUT* on Detroit Lions -3 

The Key: The Detroit Lions have to be more than 3-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals today based on the motivation of these two teams.  The Lions have managed to stay alive in the playoff race by going 5-2 in their last 7 games overall.  Now they play a Bengals team that has clearly quit, losing their last 2 games to the Bears and Vikings by a combined score of 14-67.  Marvin Lewis has announced he is done after the season, so the players have nothing left to fight for.  And the Bengals are a mash unit due to all of their injuries both on the offensive line and all over the defense.  Cincinnati is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after railing its previous game by 21 or more at the half.  Detroit is 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Detroit. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Denver Broncos +3 

The Key: Brock Osweiler had a near-perfect QBR in his last game against the Colts.  He is trying to show teams that he can still be a starting quarterback in this league.  The Broncos have throttled the Colts and Broncos by a combined 48-13 score over the past 2 weeks.  Now they have extra prep time to get ready for the Washington Redskins after playing last Thursday.  They have the league’s top-ranked defense this season and will make life miserable on Kirk Cousins and the banged-up Redskins.  Washington was fortunate to win last week against the Cardinals limiting them to 5 field goals instead of touchdowns.  I think Osweiler and company punch it in a few more times this week, and the defense shuts down this anemic Washington offense.  The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win.  Take Denver. 

7* NFL Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +7 

The Key: Two weeks ago you could have bet the Los Angeles Rams at a pick ‘em against the Tennessee Titans.  This line has moved 7 points since then.  That’s based solely on public perception.  The Rams are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 42-7 beat down at Seattle.  After basically clinching the division with that victory, I expect them to suffer a letdown this week against the Titans.  The Titans have since lost back-to-back games and that’s why the perception on them is down.  But they have everything to play for here at 8-6 as they are fighting for a playoff spot in the crowded AFC.  And they still have a chance to win the division if they can win out.  That’s why I expect the best effort of the season from the Titans in this game.  And we’re getting 7 points with them at home.  This is one of the best values I’ve ever seen in the NFL.  Take Tennessee.

7* Colts/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +14 

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens don’t have a potent enough offense to be laying 2 touchdowns to the Indianapolis Colts today.  In fact, they have one of the worst offenses in the entire NFL.  They have been living off turnovers this season, which is hard to sustain.  They are plus-17 in turnover differential.  But the Colts don’t turn the ball over as Jacoby Brissett has thrown just 7 interceptions on the season.  The Colts have committed 1 or fewer turnovers in 11 of their 14 games this year.  They aren’t going to give the Ravens the gifts they have been used to getting this year.  That’s going to make it hard for them to cover this massive spread.  The Colts have shown up every week and given a great effort for Chuck Pagano.  He is doing a good job, and it’s unfortunate that he may lose that job at the end of the season.  But it won’t be for a lack of fighting, and I expect his players to show up for him this week once again.  This is also a good spot for the Colts as they are rested after playing last Thursday against the Broncos, getting extra time to prepare, while the Ravens are on a short week after beating the Browns on Sunday.  Bets against home favorites a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a losing team are 70-38 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Pagano is 23-13 ATS off a loss as the coach of Indianapolis.  The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Ravens are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win by more than 14 points.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Indianapolis. 

7* Falcons/Bucs NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -6.5 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons have done whatever they wanted to offensively in their last two meetings with the Bucs.  They won 43-28 in Tampa last year with 461 total yards, and they won 34-20 at home earlier this season behind 516 total yards.  The Bucs rank last in the NFL in total defense and won’t offer much resistance tonight either.  The Bucs are a mess at 4-9 on the season and haven’t had a bye all year.  They are tired, they are beat up, and they stand no chance of keeping this game close against Atlanta.  They are going to be without 2 of their best players on defense in DT Gerald McCoy and LB Lavonte David.  Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game this season.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.  The Bucs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC opponents, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South opponents.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Sunday NFL *BLOWOUT* on Buffalo Bills -3 

The Key: Don’t look now but the Buffalo Bills are in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  They have a lot to play for, and it’s as hard to win in Buffalo in December as it is anywhere else in the NFL.  Now they get to host the Dolphins, who are in the ultimate letdown spot following their upset win over the Patriots on Monday.  They are also on a short week, and this warm weather team won’t like the conditions in Buffalo.  This game just screams Bills’ blowout because they get starting QB Tyrod Taylor back from injury this week, and they are the better running team in this cold weather.  Bets on any team (Buffalo) after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last 5 games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points in their last 5 games are 41-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  The Bills are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game.  The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games following a Monday game.  Take Buffalo. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Arizona Cardinals +4 

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have won 2 of their last 3 games coming into this contest over the Titans and Jaguars, two teams poised to make the playoffs.  They should be able to handle the Washington Redskins, who sit at 5-8 and are done for.  This Redskins defense looks to have basically quit as they have allowed 30 or more points in 6 of their last 8 games.  The Cardinals still have an elite defense as they are yielding just 242 yards per game in their last 3 contests.  I’m not sure how the Redskins can be favored by more than a field goal in a game that they’ll likely lose outright.  They are just 14-28 ATS in their last 42 home games as a favorite in the 3.5-7 range.  The Redskins are also just 11-28-2 ATS in their last 41 home games when playing against a team with a losing record.  Take Arizona. 

6* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles PK 

The Key: The Chargers have been one of the best teams in the NFL down the stretch.  They have won 4 straight games by a combined 78 points, or an average of 19.5 points per game.  The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 with their only win coming at home against the hapless Raiders.  They also lost to the Giants, Bills and Jets during this stretch.  It’s clear to me which team is playing better football right now and most likely to get the win in this pick ‘em game.  Philip Rivers knows this is one of his last chances to make the playoffs, and he’s not going to squander it.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Broncos/Colts AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -2.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos actually have the No. 1 defense in the NFL based on a number of different statistical categories.  That is the difference in this game as the Colts have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, giving up 26.4 points and 375.3 yards per game.  And the Colts have one of the worst offenses as well, averaging just 16.3 points and 290.7 yards per game.  This is a complete mismatch, and even this stagnant Denver offense should be able to get going against this weak Colts defense tonight.  The Colts are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or fewer in 3 straight games.  Take Denver. 

7* Patriots/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +12 

The Key: The Patriots will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks here.  They also have to play a team they just beat by 18 points 2 weeks ago.  And they have their ‘game of the year’ against the Steelers on deck next week.  This couldn’t be a worse situation for the Patriots.  I think their 6-game ATS winning streak comes to an end Monday night.  They are being asked to lay too many points in Miami.  The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.  The Dolphins have won 2 of their last 3 home meetings with the Patriots outright.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL *Blowout* Game of the Month on Los Angeles Chargers -6 

The Key: The Redskins have nothing to play for after losing 14-38 to the Cowboys last week.  It was their last stand, and now they’re done.  And they’ve been hit so hard by injuries that they never had a chance anyway.  The Chargers have everything to play for as they are tied for first place in the AFC West with the Chiefs and Raiders.  They have won 6 of their last 8 and Philip Rivers has a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio in the six wins.  He’s playing at a high level, and he’s backed by a defense that is great against the pass and getting to the quarterback.  That makes this a bad matchup for the Redskins and Kirk Cousins.  The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games during Week 14.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Chicago Bears +6.5 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals suffered a crushing loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.  They blew a 17-point lead in that game.  It was their last stand.  Now they’re on a short week and won’t be excited at all to face the Bears.  And they are missing numerous players on defense, and possibly their entire starting secondary.  The Bears continue to fight despite the poor media attention.  I think they can go into Cincinnati and pull the upset, but we’ll take the points for some added cushion.  The Bears have been competitive in every game by one that Mitch Trubisky has started.  They have only lost by more than 8 points once in their last 8 games, and that was at Philadelphia.  The Bengals only have 2 wins by more than 4 points all season.  John Fox is 10-1 ATS when he total is 35.5 to 42 as the coach of Chicago.  The Bengals cannot be this heavily favored considering the bad spot for them off the Steelers game Monday, and all of their injuries on defense.  Take Chicago. 

6* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -4 

The Key: The Chiefs have lost 6 of their last 7 after a 5-0 start.  They are now tied for first place in the AFC West with the Raiders and Chargers.  I think we are getting them at a discount now after this poor run.  Their offense came to life last week with 31 points while averaging over 10 yards per play against the Jets.  I think they score in bunches here against an awful Raiders defense.  The Chiefs will want revenge on the Raiders after losing on the final play of the game 31-30 in their first meeting.  The Raiders likely won’t have Amari Cooper because of an ankle injury.  That’s huge considering Cooper has 11 receptions for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Chiefs in the first meeting.  Bets on home favorites revenging a loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a favorite are 33-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.  Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 vs. AFC West foes.  Take Kansas City. 

7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -2 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are ‘all in’ tonight as they can’t afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs.  Look for them to get the job done at home against the Saints, who have beaten up on such a soft schedule of late.  The one time they stepped up on class?  They lost 20-26 on the road to the Rams two weeks ago only after scoring a touchdown in the closing seconds to make the score look closer than was.  Now this is another step up game for the Saints.  The Falcons get two starting cornerbacks back this week from injury, and that’s going to be huge for them.  The Saints are still banged up everywhere, especially on defense.  Bets on home favorites after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team 51% to 60% playing a winning team are 28-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Atlanta. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Cincinnati Bengals +6 

The Key: The season is on the line for the Cincinnati Bengals tonight.  At 5-6 they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt.  The Steelers are 9-2 and can afford a loss now.  Because they host the Patriots in a couple weeks, they can lose this game and win that one and still be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  I believe this line is way off as the Steelers were only 3.5-point favorites over the Bengals at home in their first meeting, and now they are 6-point road favorites in the second meeting.  That’s an 8.5-point adjustment.  And the Steelers have recent 3-point wins over both the Colts and Packers, so it’s not like they are playing at an extremely high level.  The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Cincinnati. 

6* Browns/Chargers AFC *CA$H COW* on Cleveland +14 

The Key: This line has gotten way out of whack.  The Chargers can’t be 2 touchdown favorites against anyone.  I realize the Cleveland Browns are 0-11, but they are better than they get credit for.  One quick look at the stats shows that.  The Browns are only getting outgained by 8 yards per game on the season, averaging 310 yards per game on offense and giving up 8 per game on defense.  Their problem has been red zone struggles on both sides of the ball.  But now the Browns are in the largest underdog role they’ve been all season, and it’s coming against a mediocre 5-6 Chargers team that has zero home-field advantage.  Bets on underdogs of 10.5 or more points off 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent off 2 or more consecutive wins are 23-7 ATS since 1983.  Bets on road underdogs off 6 or more consecutive losses in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Patriots/Bills AFC *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +9 

The Key: The Patriots have some mass injuries right now they are dealing with.  They will be without receiver Chris Hogan, offensive tackle Marcus Cannon and sack leader Trey Flowers.  They also could be without cornerback Eric Rose and offensive tackler LeAdrian Waddle, who are both questionable.  The Bills earned a huge 16-10 win in Kansas City last week to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Their defense was awesome, limiting the Chiefs to just 10 points and 236 total yards.  They have a knack for playing the Patriots tough.  They have actually won 2 of the last 5 meetings outright and have only lost once by more than 8 points in those 5 meetings.  The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bills are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 home games in weeks 10 through 13.  Take Buffalo.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Baltimore Ravens -3 

The Key: This game is all about the matchup.  The Ravens have 14 sacks over the past month and have forced 13 turnovers in their past 4 games.  Mathew Stafford has been sacked 10 times in the past 3 weeks and they are starting to turn the ball over more.  Stafford is nursing an ankle injury that will have him far from full strength.  And there are injuries along the offensive line that are going to allow the Ravens to get after him for 4 quarters.  The Vikings put up 30 points and 408 total yards on this Detroit defense last week, and I think Joe Flacco and the offense will do enough to support their dominant defense in this one.  Bet on home favorites that have won 2 of their last 3 games coming in, who are winning 51% to 60% of their games and playing another winning team are 27-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Baltimore. 

6* Jags/Cardinals Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona +5

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have benefited from an extremely soft schedule of late.  They have won 4 in a row and are starting to become a public team.  Now they are laying 5 points on the road here to the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cardinals played well enough to win their last two games against Seattle and Houston.  Blaine Gabbert made his first start with the team last week on the road at Houston, and should be much more effective at home this time around in his 2nd start.  And you can bet Gabbert wants revenge on his former team here.  The Jags are without some key starters in OL Jeremy Parnell, OL Patrick Omameh, CB Jalen Ransey and WR Allen Hurns.  Not having Hurns will allow Patrick Peterson to lockdown Marquise Lee, who is the only real threat at receiver now for the Jaguars.  Bruce Arians is 10-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached.  Take Arizona.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Chicago Bears +14.5

The Key: The Chicago Bears have been a profitable team to back this season.  They are now in their largest underdog role of the season, while the Philadelphia Eagles are in their largest favorite role of the year.  Mitch Trubisky has helped make the Bears at least competitive.  In his 6 starts, the Bears have not lost by more than 8 points once.  He has been protecting the football very well with just 3 turnovers in their last 4 games.  The Eagles are in a letdown spot off their big win over Dallas Sunday night.  They could also be looking ahead to a huge stretch with back-to-back road games at Seattle and the LA Rams in their next two games.  John Fox is 9-2 ATS when facing teams who average 5.65 or more yards per play as the coach of Chicago.  Take Chicago.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins +17

The Key: After going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, the New England Patriots are becoming that public darling once again.  The betting public is going to line up to back them at any number.  That provides some line value to fade them as the Patriots are now 17-point favorites against the Dolphins this week.  This is their biggest favorite role of the season as they have only been a double-digit favorite one other time.  The Miami Dolphins have lost four straight and haven't covered a point spread in any of their last 5 games.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, especially after their 20-30 loss to the Bucs last week.  But they should have won that game as they lost the turnover battle 5-0 and managed 448 total yards.  Matt Moore will find success against this soft New England defense that gives up 402 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  The Patriots have a ton of injuries right now and will be without two starting offensive linemen in C David Andrews and OL Marcus Cannon.  Bets on road teams (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 23-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Miami.

7* Giants/Redskins NFC East Game of the Month on New York +7.5

The Key: The Giants have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Redskins.  They haven't lost any of their last 10 meetings with the Redskins by more than 6 points.  The Redskins being 7.5-point favorites in this game is a big line mistake from the books, especially with all of the injuries they are dealing with right now.  The offensive line is banged up, the front 7 defensively is missing key players, and the top two running games in Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley are out for the season.  The Redskins are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take New York.

6* Bills/Chargers AFC *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +4.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers just can't cover the spread as favorites, let alone win games.  The last 27 times that the Chargers have been favored by 1 to 5 points, they have actually lost the game outright 18 times.  Bets on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game are 64-28 ATS since 1983.  The price is right to pull the trigger on the Bills this week thanks to their blowout loss to the Saints last week.  Look for them to likely win this game outright.  Take Buffalo.

7* NFL Dog of the Month on Cleveland Browns +8

The Key: The Cleveland Browns have kept fighting.  They are trying to win games, and that was evident last week.  But once again they shot themselves in the foot despite outplaying the Lions for most of the game.  They had a 7-point lead late in the 3rd quarter, but Deshon Kizer got hurt and they went backwards on offense.  Kizer returned to lead them down the field, but threw an INT on first and goal from the 5 to lost 24-38 and fail to cover as 10-point underdogs.  They also had the clock run out on them on the 1-yard line on the final play before halftime.  They outgained the Lions 413 to 345 for the game.  The Browns have one of the better defenses in the NFL.  The key to stopping the Jaguars is stopping the run, and the Browns do a great job of that.  They are only giving up 86 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  That's very good when you consider they have been trailing for the majority of their games, and the opponents have been wanting to run the football.  Bets on home dogs or PK who failed to cover 2 of their last 3, a team that's winning 25% or less of their games playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 71-33 ATS since 1983.  Take Cleveland.

6* Cowboys/Falcons NFC *CA$H COW* on Atlanta -3

The Key: The season is on the line for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They can't afford a loss to the Cowboys if they want to make the playoffs.  They already trail the Saints and Panthers within their division, and the Cowboys are a team they will be fighting with for a wild card spot.  The Falcons have played 3 straight on the road and will be happy to return home this week.  They get 4 of their next 5 games at home and this is a stretch where they can really make some hay.  But because they have lost 4 of their last 5, they are only laying 3 points here to a Cowboys team that is without Ezekiel Elliott, has both Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams banged up, and are likely to be without tackle Tyron Smith.  The Cowboys are getting a lot of love from the books right now due to their 3 straight wins over the 49ers, Redskins and Chiefs.  Dallas is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 road games after covering the spread in 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  Take Atlanta.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5

The Key: This matchup couldn't be better for the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They lead the NFL record in sacks by a wide margin, and they are on pace to set the record for most sacks in a season.  Their pass defense is also 1st in the NFL by a landslide as they give up just 156 passing yards per game and 4.9 per attempt.  That's unheard of in today's NFL.  Now they're up against a Chargers team with an immobile quarterback that almost exclusively relies on the pass to move the football.  And the Chargers only rush 22 times per game for 89 yards per game.  Leonard Fournette is back from suspension and will be able to run on a Chargers' defense that is one of the worst in the NFL against the run, giving up 135 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  The Chargers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss.  Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC opponents.  Take Jacksonville.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Buffalo Bills +3

The Key: The Buffalo Bills have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Bills are 4-0 at home this year while beating their opponents by 10.5 points per game.  Now Tyrod Taylor will have two key weapons back this week in Charles Clay and Kelvin Benjamin.  Clay still leads the team in receiving despite not playing since Week 5, so he is very important.  Benjamin will play in his first game in a Bills' uniform since being traded from Carolina.  The Saints are getting a lot of respect now after winning 6 in a row.  But their opponents have been lackluster to say the least.  They beat a banged-up Cam Newton and the Panthers, Jay Cutler and the Dolphins, Matt Stafford and the Lions, Brett Hundley and the Packers, Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears and a banged-up Jameis Winston and the Bucs.  They have only played one true road game in their last five games.  Now they have to head up to Buffalo and play outdoors in the cold weather, which hasn't been a good combination for Drew Brees in the past.  The Bills have extra time to prepare after playing the Jets last Thursday.  New Orleans is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 after covering 6 or 7 of its last 8 against the spread.  Buffalo is 26-12 ATS at home in its last 38 games during weeks 10 through 13.  Bets against favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight game are 27-7 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Buffalo.