6* Saturday Night Annihilator on Panthers +11

The Key: The defending Super Bowl champs are getting a little too much respect from odds makers against a team that has given them problems. Carolina has played Seattle to within five points each of the past three seasons, and I expect another close games Saturday. These two played a 13-9 game Oct. 26, which is worth noting because the Panthers are 11-2 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss. They have won by an average score of 26.2 to 15.9 in this situation. The Carolina defense has been outstanding down the stretch, holding each of its last five opponents to 17 points or less. I expect this unit to have success against a Seattle offense that has struggled. The Seahawks have managed only 20 points or fewer in five of their last seven games. You want to fade favorites of 10.5 points or more that have outgained their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 51-22 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS over the last three seasons. Take the points.

7* Saturday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +7

The Key: I like the Ravens catching a TD + PAT given their postseason track record and how competitive they've been with the Patriots. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games while the Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. It is also worth noting that the Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five postseason games on the road while the Patriots are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games at home. Baltimore has won or lost by fewer than seven points in seven of its last eight matchups with New England and hasn't lost by more than six points in its last five visits to New England. The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFC Wild Card Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Lions +7.5

The Key: Dallas is being overvalued following four straight impressive wins and covers to close the regular season. Detroit is the superior defensive team, and this is the time of year to side with defense. In games played eight games or more into the schedule, you want to back teams that give up just 14.0-18.0 ppg when they are matched up against a team that allows 18.0-23.0 ppg as doing so has produced a 50-24 ATS mark over the last five seasons. So much of Dallas' success has stemmed from its running game, but now the Cowboys will be up against the top run-stuffing unit in the league. Romo is just 5-17 ATS versus teams that give up only 14.6-20.6 ppg. Dallas is 8-19 ATS as a home favorite under coach Garrett and just 1-8 ATS under its current coach following a stretch of five or six covers in a seven-game span.

7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Bengals +4

The Key: I think Cincinnati will want this game just a little bit more. It was embarrassed 27-0 in Indy Oct. 19 so it will be highly motivated. Plus, this Bengals team will draw additional motivated from three consecutive early exits from the postseason. The aforementioned loss to the Colts was a turning point in Cincy's season as it responded by going 7-3 the rest of the way, including 4-1 on the road. The Colts are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games versus teams that have a winning record. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Marvin Lewis in road games when seeking revenge for a loss to a team that held them to fewer than nine points. Take the points.

7* Saturday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +4

The Key: I'm not hesitating to grab the points with the Ravens considering how tight this series has been. While this season's two prior meetings resulted in blowout victories for the home team, this has not been the norm. Entering the season, these two had played each other to within three points or fewer in nine of 11 battles, including five straight. Including this season, Baltimore has won or lost by fewer than four points in seven of the last eight meetings. This has been a good time of year to back the Ravens as they are on a 5-0 ATS run in the playoffs, a 4-0 ATS run in road playoff games and a 4-0 ATS run in wild card contests. In addition, you want to take teams like Baltimore after a game in which they didn't commit a turnover if they are up against an opponent that committed three or more turnovers last game. Doing so has produced a 73-52 ATS record the last five seasons. Baltimore is 7-0 ATS the last three seasons in road games after a game with a turnover margin of plus-two or better and has won by an average score of 24.9 to 19.0 in this spot. Take the points.

6* Saturday NFC Wild Card Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Cardinals +6.5

The Key: You want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points eight games or more into the schedule if they allowed three points or less in the first half of their last game and if it's a matchup between these with a +/-3 3.0 points per game differential. Doing so has produced a 38-10 ATS mark since 1983, including a perfect 6-0 ATS record over the last five seasons. Arizona has hung its hat on defense all season. While it held the 49ers to just 20 points last time out, it allowed them to gain 395 yards on 59 plays. This is no deterrent for me as teams headed up by Arians are 9-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 yards per play or more in their previous game and have won these nine by an average score of 21.7 to 13.9. Carolina's struggles against the run also bode well for the Cardinals. Arians' teams are 7-0 ATS in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 4.5 yards per carry or more, and they have won these by an average score of 25.4 to 16.9. The Panthers are off a big win and cover in Atlanta but are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Take the points.

6* NFC South *CA$H COW* on Panthers +3

The Key: Atlanta hasn't been the same juggernaut at home the last two seasons, and it has gotten nothing easy against the Panthers. Carolina is 3-2 in the last five meetings with the two losses coming by just two points each so I feel very comfortable grabbing the points here. The Atlanta offense has been going good the last few games, which means it's time to fade away. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in home games the last three seasons after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. It has lost these contests by an average score of 25.5 to 21.7. The Panthers are perfect this December, which comes as no surprise because they've thrived late in the season since Rivera took over in 2011, going 14-3 in December under his watch. They are also 6-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games under Rivera and have won these by an average score of 31.0 to 17.7.

6* NFC East Annihilator on Giants -2

The Key: Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, and I'm backing the team on the upswing. The Eagles were sitting 9-3 and controlled their own destiny but have lost their last three games and are eliminated from playoff contention. The Giants haven't quit on the season despite being out of playoff contention a long time ago. They've won their last three and will be lacking no motivation as they try to avenge a 27-0 loss in Philadelphia earlier this season. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to back teams that are seeking revenge for a road loss to an opponent if they are also off an upset win of 10 points or more on the road. Doing so has produced a 39-15 ATS mark since 1983. This system is 3-0 ATS this season. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 10-2 ATS in home games since 1992 when seeking revenge for a blowout loss of 21 points or more, and they have won by an average of 8.3 points in this spot.

7* NFC North Game of the Year on Bears +7

The Key: Just when it looked like Jay Cutler might never take another snap for the Chicago Bears, the football gods have given him another chance. I expect Cutler to make the most of his opportunity. Cutler has often been at his best against the Vikings, winning seven of his last eight starts in the series. This line is an overreaction to Minnesota's five-game cover streak as well as the public perception of Cutler. Chicago is 8-0 ATS since 1992 off a home cover in a game it lost. You want to fade home teams that are off a road loss if they carry a win percentage of .400 to .490 and are playing a team with a win percentage of .250 to .400. Doing so has produced a 46-14 ATS mark since 1983.

7* NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Raiders +6

The Key: I expect a major letdown from Buffalo as it makes the long cross-country trip following a huge win over the Packers. It's been a struggle for the Bills on the West Coast, going 0-3 ATS in their last three visits to the Raiders. It's been a struggle all-around for Buffalo in this series as it is 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings. You want to fade favorites that have a winning record when they are off an upset win at home as doing so has produced a 24-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 4.0 points but have lost outright by an average of 2.0 points. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Blowout on Dolphins -6.5

The Key: Minnesota has been a covering machine with against the spread wins in seven of its last eight, including four straight. With odds makers handing the Vikings this many points, it's clear they want the money on the Purple and Gold. I'm not taking the bait. While Minnesota has played well against a couple good teams (Green Bay and Detroit) during its covering streak, those teams weren't giving the Vikings their complete focus because they had already handled them in the first meeting. Plus, the Vikes have played a lot of weak competition during the second half of the season (Buccaneers, Redskins, Bears, Panthers, Jets). Off back-to-back blowout losses to Baltimore and New England, the Dolphins will be highly motivated and will be looking to take their frustrations out on Minnesota. Miami has double-digit home wins over New England, San Diego and Buffalo this season. The Vikings are just 1-5 in their last six road games. You want to back teams like Miami that have forced one turnover or none in five consecutive games when they are playing a team that had a -2 turnover margin or worse last game. Doing so has produced a 40-15 ATS mark since 1983. Lay the points.

6* NFC North *CA$H COW* on Bears +7

The Key: It's been a miserable season for the Chicago Bears, but I expect a strong performance from them in their final home game of the season versus a division rival. We are getting a good number here considering Chicago has won or lost by fewer than seven points in 10 of the last 13 meetings. Detroit is coming off an emotional win over the Vikings, and it could be peeking ahead to next week's matchup with Green Bay. The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games and 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 road games versus a team with a losing home record. You want to back December home underdogs or pickems that are off two or more consecutive spread losses. Doing so has produced a 96-57 ATS mark since 1983.

*Note: Bears still a play without Cutler starting.

6* Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Bills +5.5

The Key: Green Bay is being overvalued on the road where it has just one win of more than three points this season. The Bills are coming off a loss in Denver but are 12-1 ATS off a road loss the last three seasons, winning these games by an average score of 26.5 to 17.8. The home team has had the edge in this series, winning each of the past six meetings by nine points or more. Take the points.

6* AFC East Annihilator on Dolphins +8

The Key: New England is being overvalued here because it is a public team. The Dolphins have won the last two meetings, and I expect them to give the Patriots a game here. The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home and 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Miami is 6-0 ATS eight games or more into the season the last two seasons versus teams that average 260.0 passing yards per game or more, defeating these teams by an average score of 28.8 to 20.5. This trend speaks to how well the Dolphins have defended the pass. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that have gained 99 rushing yards or fewer in each of their last three games when they're up against a team that was outrushed by 100 yards or more last game. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take the points.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Chiefs -10

The Key: What happened after Oakland upset Kansas City Nov. 20? It was destroyed 52-0 in St. Louis the following week. After last Sunday's upset win over San Francisco, I expect another collapse from the Raiders. Oakland is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons following an upset win and has lost these six by an average of 23.8 points. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset win at home and are up against an opponent off a road loss as doing so has produced a 72-33 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Kansas City will be out for revenge here. You want to back favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are seeking revenge and are off an upset loss as a favorite. Doing so has produced an 81-38 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last three seasons. Lay the points.

6* Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Rams -4

The Key: The Cardinals aren't the same team without Carson Palmer under center. They have been outgained by an average of 94.7 yards over their last three games, and the ineptitude of the offense is starting to affect the defense. The Rams enter this matchup full of confidence. They've won two straight, three of four and five of eight with quality wins over Seattle and Denver during this stretch. St. Louis will be hungry here as it looks to avenge last month's blowout loss in Arizona. The Cardinals have lost their last two on the road to Seattle and Atlanta by double digits while the Rams have won their last three at home against Seattle, Denver and Oakland. The Rams have also won their last two home games against the Cardinals. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset win at home and matched up against a conference opponent. Doing so has produced a 46-18 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. Lay the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Packers -13

The Key: This may seem like a lot of points, but the Packers are 6-0 this season at Lambeau and have won these games by an average score of 40.8 to 17.7. They have a significant edge tonight because this week be Atlanta's first cold weather game in a very long time. The Falcons upset Arizona last week, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win and 3-13 ATS since 1992 following an upset victory at home. The grass has been good to Aaron Rodgers are company as they are 7-0 ATS on grass this season, winning these games by an average score of 38.8 to 18.4. The Packers are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in home games following a stretch of six or seven wins in an eight-game span. They have won these six by an average score of 34.7 to 15.3. It's also worth noting that Green Bay is 11-3 ATS when laying 10.5 to 14.0 points at home under coach McCarthy and has won these contests by an average score of 35.2 to 12.2. Lay the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Chargers +4

The Key: New England hasn't fared well on grass. We saw it again last Sunday in Green Bay. The Patriots are now 0-9 ATS in their last nine games on grass and have lost the last seven of these by an average of 8.6 points. New England has also been susceptible on the road where it is 3-3. The Chargers are 5-1 at home with the lone loss coming by just three points to the Chiefs. Home field has been big in this series as well. The home team has won or lost by fewer than four points in nine of the last 10, including five straight. The Chargers have won or lost by fewer than four points each of the last four times they've hosted the Patriots. Take the points.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Browns +4

The Key: The Colts rolled over Washington last week while the Browns laid an egg in Buffalo. However, you want to fade road teams off a win of 21 points or more when they are up against an opponent that was held to three points or less in the first half of their last game. Doing so has produced a 38-12 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a loss, 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning road record and 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 14 points. While the Johnny Football talk is heating up, I'm happy to have Brian Hoyer here. The Browns are 8-4 ATS with him under center at home and 9-4 ATS as an underdog. They are 9-1 ATS with Hoyer under center versus teams like the Colts that give up 20.6-26.6 points per game. Take the points.

7* NFC Non-division Game of the Year on Redskins +2.5

The Key: After a strong showing in San Francisco, the Redskins were smacked in Indianapolis last week. That result bodes well for us here considering December home underdogs or pickems off a road loss of 14 points or more are 78-42 (65%) ATS since 1983. The Rams are just 2-4 on the road where they are averaging only 17.5 points and allowing 25.5 points. Pass defense has been the weakness of the St. Louis defense, and it will be tested by a Washington passing attack that ranks 10th in the NFL with 260.5 yards per game on 7.6 yards per attempt. This is significant because the Rams are on a 1-10 ATS slide in road games versus teams that average 7.5 yards per pass attempt. They have lost these games by an average of 22.0 points. St. Louis is one of the weakest offensive teams in the league. It has benefited from turnovers. However, the Redskins have a plus-three turnover margin in the games McCoy has played. Take Washington.

6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bears +4

The Key: Dallas hasn't shown me that it deserves to be laying more than a field goal in Chicago. It is 4-0 in true road games this season but has won by just three points in two of its last three. And, it hasn't fared well against the Bears, who are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings. The Cowboys have been a terrible favorite under coach Garrett at 12-27 ATS in the role. With last Thursday's home blowout loss to Philadelphia, the Cowboys fell to 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games as well as 0-4 ATS in their last four versus NFC foes. In addition, Dallas is 0-7 ATS in the second half of the season the last three seasons versus teams that give up 6.0 yards per play or more and has lost to these teams by an average score of 33.3 to 28.4. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Jets +7

The Key: This line is an overreaction to New York's poor performance last Monday night in  Detroit versus Buffalo. Consider that the Jets have won or lost by seven points or less in 29 of their last 33 meetings with the Dolphins. You want to take home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the second half of the season that have a win percentage of 25% or worse, have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 51-20 ATS mark since 1983. In addition, the Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in their last five Monday Night Football games. Take the points.

6* SNF *CA$H COW* on Chiefs +1.5

The Key: At home, and with an opportunity to pull even with the Broncos in the division, I like Kansas City to take care of business. The Broncos have experienced some difficulties on the road where they have been blown out in two of their last three. The Chiefs have been dominant at home, where they are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four with wins over the Patriots and Seahawks during this stretch. They are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus winning teams. The Broncos won the season's first meeting clear back in Week 2. However, you want to back home teams that are seeking revenge for a road loss when they check in off an upset loss. Doing so has produced a 74-36 ATS mark since 1983. Take Kansas City.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Falcons +1.5

The Key: Arizona isn't the same team with Drew Stanton under center. He struggled in Seattle last week, and I expect those struggles to continue in Atlanta. The Falcons are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL statistically but have shown improvement in recent weeks and have been able to come up with a lot of turnovers. They've held their last four foes to an average of 20.5 points and have forced eight turnovers the last three weeks. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS the last two seasons after allowing 6.0 yards per play or more in two consecutive games. They have won by an average score of 28.0 to 21.4 in this spot. Atlanta is at home, where the combination of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan has been very good over the years, and it still has a great chance to win the NFC South. Take Atlanta.

6* NFL Public Burial on Buccaneers +4

The Key: This is a tough spot for Cincinnati, which is playing its third road game in as many weeks. I think it will have a difficult time focusing on the task at hand with a big divisional showdown against Pittsburgh looming. You want to take home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the second half of the season if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse, have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 50-20 (71%) ATS mark since 1983. The Bucs have won six straight over the Bengals and have a good opportunity to extend the streak. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Year on Saints -2.5

The Key: New Orleans has been one of the best home teams in the NFL with Sean Payton as head man and Drew Brees under center. So, the fact it has lost two straight in the Superdome isn't sitting well. I expect the Saints to respond. They haven't lost three straight home games since 2005. They are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night Football games. I like Brees and company to be able to take advantage of a Baltimore pass defense that ranks 22nd in the league with 251.2 yards allowed per game. The Ravens have allowed opponents to complete 64.2 percent of their passes, and that number jumps to 66.1 percent on the road - not good. This is significant because the Saints are 8-1 ATS under Payton in home games played in the second half of the season versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 61.0 percent or higher. The Saints have won these games by an average score of 37.7 to 19.0. Lay the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Giants +3.5

The Key: The Giants have struggled, but the Cowboys seem to bring out the best in them. This isn't the best spot for Dallas either. It defeated the Giants by 10 points last month so its tendency will be to look ahead to Thursday's showdown with the Eagles. The Giants have won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in 21 of the last 30 meetings. Dallas is only 12-25 ATS as a favorite under coach Garrett. It is just 1-8 ATS under his watch following a stretch of five or six wins in a seven-game span. It also bodes well for us that Dallas is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more. It has lost these games by an average score of 34.2 to 28.0. Take the points.

6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Redskins +10

The Key: The 49ers are being overvalued by odds makers here. They haven't established dominance in their new stadium, where they are 2-2 and haven't won by more than five points. This is also a look-ahead spot for the Niners with a big division game against Seattle Thursday. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the second half of the season if they have a win percentage of 51-60%, have won two of their last three games and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced an 81-38 (68%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on Seahawks -6.5

The Key: I love the defending Super Bowl champs at home in a game they really need to have. They trail the Cardinals by three games in the division standings and are also contending for a playoff spot with the 49ers as well as teams in the NFC North and NFC East. Seattle doesn't have an easy game left on the schedule so it needs to take care of business at home where it has been nearly unbeatable in recent years. The Cardinals came in to Seattle and won in the regular season a year ago, and that loss will serve as added motivation. The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points under coach Carroll and have won these games by an average score of 28.8 to 12.7. Lay the points.

6* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Lions +7.5

The Key: Detroit fits into a simple system that has been way too good to ignore. You want to back road teams off a road loss in the month of November as doing so has produced a 75-30 (71%) ATS mark the last 10 seasons. There is also a system in play that stacks the odds heavily against New England. Eight games into the season or more, you want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in a game involving teams with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential if the team you are fading outgained its last opponent by 150 yards or more. That's because doing so has produced a 31-8 (80%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

7* AFC West Game of the Month on Raiders +7.5

The Key: This is a sandwich game for Kansas City, which is off a big win over Seattle and has Denver on deck. You want to fade favorites off an upset win at home that have a winning record as doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Chiefs have played five road games this season and won by more than 7.5 points in just one of them. The Raiders haven't been as bad as their 0-10 record looks. They've played New England, San Diego and Seattle tough and have five losses of seven points or less. You want to back underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season if they check in with seven or more consecutive losses as doing so has produced a 94-46 ATS mark since 1983. Lastly, the underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Titans +6

The Key: The Steelers haven't been the same team on the road where they have lost their last two to Cleveland and the Jets. In fact, they are only 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 road games versus teams with a losing home record. This is a team that tends to play to the level of its competition. With Big Ben under center, consider that Pittsburgh is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games versus teams like Tennessee that have a win percentage of 17-27%. The Titans have lost their last three games with turnovers being part of the problem in their last two. However, teams headed up by coach Whisenhunt are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. They have won by an average score of 32.5 to 18.0 in this spot. You also want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the second half of the season that have won two of their last three games if they have a win percentage of 51-60% on the season and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced an 80-38 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

6* AFC Annihilator on Texans +3

The Key: This game has letdown written all over it for Cleveland, which is off a big win over the Bengals that moved it into first place in the AFC North and ended a 17-game slide in road divisional games. Houston has had a bye week to prepare, and I expect it to benefit from making the switch to Ryan Mallet, who worked with Bill O'Brien in New England. When the line is +3 to -3 in Weeks 10-13, you want to take road teams that have lost four of their last five games as doing so has produced a 41-16 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Giants +4.5

The Key: This will be a tough encore for the 49ers following a big overtime win in New Orleans. The Giants have lost four in a row, but three of them were on the road. The Giants have been a much better team at home, and I like their chances of keeping this one within the number. Manning has had a ton of success against the 49ers, going 5-1 SU and ATS against them in his career. The Giants have won or lost by fewer than 4.5 points in seven of the last eight meetings. In the second half of the season, you want to fade favorites off an upset win if they own a win percentage of 51-60%. Doing so has produced a 47-20 ATS mark since 1983, including a 9-2 ATS record the last five seasons.

7* NFL Game of the Month on Rams +10.5

The Key: Back home after three straight on the road, St. Louis will respond following a disappointing effort against the Cardinals. The Rams are a much better team than they showed last week. We've seen what they are capable of in games against Dallas, Philadelphia, Seattle and San Francisco. They defeated the two later teams and played the two former teams to three and six-point games. The Rams are 10-1 ATS after a loss of 14 points or more under coach Jeff Fisher and have won by an average score of 22.1 to 18.6 in this spot. They are also 8-1 ATS under Fisher in the second half of the season versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 yards per play or more. Shaun Hill is expected to get the start, and I expect him to make the most of his opportunity. His teams are 14-6-2 ATS the last 22 times he's lined up under center. Fading road favorites that outgain opponents by 70.0 passing yards per game or more and allowed 5.5 or less yards per pass last game has produced a 69-33 ATS mark since 1983, including a 17-5 ATS record the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Dolphins -4.5

The Key: This is a better spot for Miami as it gets to play at home on a short week. The Dolphins play their next two on the road with one of those in Denver so they know the importance of taking care of business here. They'll have no problem finding motivation as they have lost the last three meetings in the series, including a 29-10 loss at Buffalo earlier this season. The Miami offense struggled in Detroit against the best defensive team in the NFL, but it had averaged 30.6 points over its previous five games. The Dolphins are averaging 25.2 ppg on the season, which is significant because Buffalo is 1-8 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that average 24.0 ppg or more. It has lost to these teams by an average score of 33.4 to 17.3. In addition, you want to back favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that average 125-150 rushing yards per game when they are matched up with a team that allowed 95-125 rushing yards per game. Doing so has produced a 77-39 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Lay the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Panthers +7

The Key: The Carolina offense has been dismal the past two games, but that actually bodes well for us here because we are catching a good number as a result. The Panthers are 24-10 ATS all-time after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. They have won by an average of 0.3 points in this situation. In addition, underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that have scored 14 points or less in two straight games are 21-4 ATS the last three seasons. Carolina is 10-5 ATS all-time with Cam Newton under center when catching 3.5 to 10.5 points. It is also 6-2 ATS in Newton's starts versus teams with a win percentage of 70-80%. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bears +7.5

The Key: This is a must-win game for the Bears. Having had a bye week to sort some things out, I expect them to take the Packers right down to the wire. The Packers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus teams with a losing record. They are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that allow 7.5 yards per pass or more. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last six November contests. The road team has been the play in this series of late as it is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Bears lost the season's first meeting.  However, you want to back road teams that are off a road loss and seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent. Doing so has produced a 72-33 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. You also want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off a loss of 10 points or more when they are matched up against an opponent that trailed by 14 points or more at the half of their previous game. Doing so had produced a 53-19 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

6* NFL Non-Conference Annihilator on Lions -2.5

The Key: I'll gladly lay this small number with the NFL's top defensive team following a bye week. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye. The Dolphins punished San Diego 37-0 last Sunday, but history tells us not to overreact. In fact, you want to fade road teams off a win of 21 points or more when they are matched up against an opponent that scored three points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced a 15-4 ATS mark the last five seasons and a 36-12 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +6

The Key: The Steelers rolled last week at home, but they are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a win of more than 14 points. They are also 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games versus teams that have a losing home record. Since Tomlin took over, the Steelers have been a poor investment against poor teams. In fact, they are 6-15 ATS under his watch versus teams that are outscored by 6.0 points per game or more. You want to back underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that check in off seven consecutive losses or more as doing so has produced a 92-45 (67%) ATS mark since 1983. Also, home underdogs or pickems that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games are 119-64 ATS since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a team with a winning record. Take the points.

6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bengals -6

The Key: The Bengals are the superior team and are in a superior spot, getting to play at home on a short week rather than on the road. Home field has been good to Cincinnati. It is 13-0-1 in its last 14 regular-season home games, winning these games by an average of 14.3 points. From a spread standpoint, the Bengals are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 home games. Home field has also been big in this matchup with the home side going 5-0 in the last five meetings. These wins have come by an average of 10.4 points. The Bengals have three straight on the road after this so they know they need to take care of business tonight. Lay the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants +3.5

The Key: Off back-to-back defeats, the Giants will be lacking no motivation. They will be well rested and well prepared following a bye week. They'll also be happy to be playing at home where they've won their last two by double digits. Indianapolis was shredded last week, giving up 522 yards through the air to Big Ben and the Steelers. With an extra week of preparation time on his side, I expect Eli Manning to shred the Indy secondary as well. The Colts are the top offensive team in the league statistically, but the Giants are 30-13 ATS versus teams that average 375.0 ypg or more under coach Coughlin. They are also 25-11 ATS under Coughlin versus teams that average 260 ypg or more through the air. You want to fade road teams that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they carry a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced a 73-36 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +7

The Key: Outside of two games, the Bucs have been highly competitive with their other five games all being decided by six points or less. They beat the Steelers on the road and nearly defeated New Orleans in the Superdome where it has won 11 straight so they have what it takes to play with the Browns. You want to back road teams that have lost by 42 points or more ATS over the last five games if they carry a win percentage of 25% or worse on the season. Doing so has produced a 15-2 ATS mark the last three seasons. Take the points.

7* NFL Situational Game of the Year on Jets +10

The Key: Historically, this is a fantastic situation to back the Jets. Consider that road underdogs or pickems are 26-6 ATS since 1983 when they check in off seven or more consecutive losses and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off two or more consecutive wins. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs of 11.9 points on average but have lost by only 4.3 points on average. Everything Kansas City does offensively stems from its running game. The Jets rank fifth in the NFL against the run with only 85.4 yards allowed per game. Their ability to stop the run will keep the Kansas City offense out of rhythm. Take the points.

6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Panthers +3

The Key: The Saints shouldn't be laying three points on the road. They are 0-7 ATS since the start of last season as a road favorite and have lost these games by an average score of 25.9 to 20.6. The Saints are also 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games. Carolina is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season going back to last season. The Panthers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. The Panthers have won three of the past four matchups, including their last two at home. Going back, they've won or lost by only three points or less in 18 of the last 23 meetings. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Redskins +10.5

The Key: The Cowboys are being overvalued here. Washington is a better team than its record might lead you to believe. It ranks 7th in the NFL in both total offense and defense. Plus, this is a huge rivalry game that the Redskins always seem to get up for. They have won or lost by less than 10.5 points in seven of the last eight meetings, 13 of the last 15, 17 of the last 20 and 22 of the last 26 so there is a ton of value in them catching double digits. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS following five or six wins in a seven-game stretch under coach Garrett, losing by an average score of 30.5 to 21.8 in this spot. Dallas is also on a 0-4 ATS Monday Night Football slide. The underdog is 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings. The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings at Dallas. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Early Annihilator on Jets -3

The Key: This is a letdown spot for Buffalo following last week's thrilling victory over Minnesota where Kyle Orton connected with Sammy Watkins with one second remaining. It will be tough for the Bills to recover from that emotionally draining win, especially without running backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. The Jets have had three extra days to gear up for this one after playing the Thursday game last week. With the extra time, I expect the New York defense to have a lot of success against a Buffalo team that is minus its two starting tailbacks. The Bills are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons following a stretch of two wins in three games. They are also 0-6 ATS the last three seasons as a road underdog of three points or less. The home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings, winning these by 17.3 points on average. New York is 12-4 in its last 16 in the series at home, including 4-0 in its last 4. These four wins have come by an average of 15.5 points. Lay the points.

7* AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Bengals +1

The Key: Cincinnati won the season's first meeting 23-16 in Baltimore clear back in Week 1. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play the revenge angle, but this is not the time or place to do that. In fact, you want to fade teams that are seeking revenge for a loss if they check in off two consecutive covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Bengals have lost two of their last three, but both losses came on the road. Cincy has been unstoppable at home where it is 11-0-1 in its last 12 regular season games. Take Cincinnati.

7* NFL Thursday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +10

The Key: This line is an overreaction to recent results. The Chargers have failed to cover the spread the past two weeks while struggling to win at Oakland and losing at home to Kansas City. Denver, meanwhile, has rattled off three consecutive double-digit victories. The fact of the matter is the Chargers will be extremely motivated following Sunday's loss. They'll also be out for revenge for a loss in Denver in last season's playoffs. The Chargers have been very competitive in this series. They have won or lost by eight points or fewer in 15 of the last 17 meetings, including the last four. The Chargers are 11-4-2 ATS in those 17 meetings and 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver. It is also worth noting that they are 11-3 ATS as an underdog under coach McCoy, 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus winning teams and 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games versus teams with a winning home record. You want to fade favorites that have held their last two opponents to 5.5 yards per pass or less when they are matched up against a team that has given up 7.0 yards per pass or more to its last two opponents. This system has produced an 87-48 ATS record since 1983, including a perfect 9-0 ATS mark the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers -3

The Key: The Steelers have prided themselves on defense under coach Mike Tomlin so you can bet last week's 31-10 loss at Cleveland hasn't been sitting well. Look for Pittsburgh to respond behind a strong defensive effort against one of the weaker offensive teams in the NFL. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. They are also 6-0 ATS the last two seasons when checking in with losses in two of their last three games. They've won these six contests by an average score of 27.3 to 18.8. In addition, Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS under coach Tomlin following a road loss of 14 points or more. The Texans have been a weak Monday Night Football play, going 0-6 ATS in their last six under the Monday night lights. Houston has been outgained in each of its games. It has been aided by creating turnovers, but Pittsburgh has done a great job of taking care of the football. Lay the points with the better team at home.
 

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Broncos -6.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for the 49ers, who are heading into the thin air with on a short week after playing Monday. They haven't fared well in this situation, going 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. They are on a 4-13 ATS slide in road games after playing Monday Night Football. Kaepernick was fantastic last week. The Rams made him beat them through the air, and he did. These Broncos aren't the Rams. Typically, the 49ers must establish the run for Kaepernick to be effective. They'll have a tough time doing that against Denver's stout run defense which ranks 4th in the NFL. The Broncos have held their last two opponents to a combined 68 yards on the ground, and they are on a 7-0 ATS run after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in two straight games. With Denver able to control San Francisco's running game, it will have an opportunity to go after Kaepernick with Miller and Ware, two of the best pass rushers in the league. The Broncos are 18-6 ATS under coach Fox when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Also, you want to take home favorites that allowed 5.5 passing yards per attempt or less last game in a matchup of teams that outpass their opponents by an average of 1.5 yards per pass or more. Doing so has produced a 24-4 ATS mark since 1983. Teams fitting this system have been favored by an average of 6.0 points but have won by an average of 14.0. Lay the number.
 

7* NFL Game of the Year on Giants +7

The Key: Dallas has won five in a row and is now being extremely overvalued following last week's upset win in Seattle. The Giants were rolling before taking it on the chin in Philadelphia. That loss assures us they will be mighty hungry when they take the field Sunday. Having suffered a pair of narrow losses to the Cowboys last season adds fuel to their fire. This has been a highly competitive series. In fact, the Giants have won or lost by seven points or less in nine of the last 10 meetings in the series, including six straight. Dallas has been a downright terrible home favorite under Garrett and Romo. It has been favored at home just once thus far this season, laying 4.5 against the Texans, and failed to cover as it won by only three points in OT. The Cowboys are 10-23 ATS as a favorite under Garrett, including 6-16 ATS when laying points at home. The Boys are 11-21 ATS as a home favorite with Romo under center. Manning is 4-1 SU and ATS at Jerry World, and I expect the Giants to give Dallas all it wants and more here. Take the points.

6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Falcons +7

The Key: This line is an overreaction to last week's results. The Falcons are 14-5 ATS under coach Smith following a loss of 10 points or more, bouncing back to win by an average score of 28.3 to 22.6. The Falcons are also 14-4 ATS under Smith after being held to 14 points or less and have won by an average score of 30.5 to 20.2 in this spot. The Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win of more than 14 points, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a cover and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards. The Ravens are also on a 1-5 ATS skid versus teams with losing records and a 5-12 ATS slide in home games versus teams with losing road marks. The Falcons are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NFL. They'll have enough offense to keep this one within the number.

7* AFC East Game of the Month on Jets +10

The Key: The Jets have lost five straight without covering a single spread during this span. However, only two of these losses have come by more than 10 points, and it should be only one because the Jets lose by only seven and cover last week against Denver if Geno Smith doesn't throw w picks six in the closing seconds. Despite the rough stretch, New York will have no problem getting up for hated division rival New England. The Jets have won or lost by fewer than 10 points in nine of the last 13 meetings. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by three points. You want to back road teams that have been defeated by 42 points or more against the spread over their last five games if they carry a win percentage of 25% or worse as doing so has produced a 34-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 9.5 points on average but have lost by only 6.9 points on average. This system is 14-2 ATS the last three seasons. Take the Jets.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Rams +4

The Key: St. Louis has played well in its last two games against good Dallas and Philadelphia teams. It led the Cowboys 21-0 and lost to them by just three points. Dallas just went to Seattle and upset the reigning Super Bowl champs. The Rams also played the now 5-1 Eagles to a six-point game on the road last time out. Motivated by those defeats as well as a pair of losses to the 49ers last season, I expect the Rams to play some inspired football under the Monday night lights. The 49ers have a big one against Denver on deck and will likely already be looking ahead to that showdown. The 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win while the Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. You want to back home underdogs or pickems that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games if they are a team with a win percentage of 25% or less playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a proven 118-63 (65%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Raiders +7.5

The Key: The Raiders needed a change, and I expect them to rally behind interim coach Tony Sparano. It is also to their benefit that they've had an extra week to prepare for this contest. San Diego has looked good during its four-game win streak but only one of the wins came on the road. The Chargers have won by more than seven points just three times in 12 road games dating back to the beginning of last season. One of these was a 10-point loss at Oakland in a game where it was favored by 6.5. You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that have been held to 14 points or less in two straight games as doing so has produced a 17-4 ATS mark the last three seasons and a 29-10 ATS record the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Early *CA$H COW* on Jets +10.5

The Key: The Broncos covered the spread for the first time this season last week. They clearly benefited from their bye week as they were able to put together a dominant performance. But now they hit the road for just the second time this season, and they do so without starting running back Montee Ball. Denver was struggling on the ground with Ball and doesn't figure to get much of anything against a New York defense that is allowing only 83.0 rushing yards per game and ranks sixth in total defense with just 320.8 yards per game allowed. With New York not having to respect Denver's running game, it will be able to put a hand in the dirt and really get after Manning. The Jets are tied with Buffalo for the league's most sacks with 17. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. You want to back October underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points (line at 10.0 at most books at time of report, but I was able to get the hook at an affordable price) that have been beaten by 35 points or more against the spread in their last three games. Doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Take the points.

7* NFL Thursday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Texans +3.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for Indy playing on the road in a short week. To make matters worse, it will face a hungry Houston squad. The Texans are coming off an overtime loss to Dallas, and in case that's not enough motivation they'll draw from three straight losses to the Colts. Indy has struggled in Houston where it is 1-3 in the last four meetings with the lone win coming by only three points. The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. In addition, you want to fade road favorite that outgain opponents by an average of 70.0 passing yards per game or more if they allowed 5.5 passing yards or less per attempt last game. Doing so has produced a 67-32 ATS mark since 1983. This system is 15-4 ATS the last five seasons.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Redskins +7.5

The Key: Washington will be hungry after getting crushed 45-14 on this field by the NY Giants last time out. As if that's not enough motivation, the Redskins were defeated on this field the last time they faced Seattle in the 2013 playoffs, blowing a 14-0 lead in the game. Despite boasting a stellar secondary, Seattle has given up an average of 286 yards per game through the air in its last two games. Washington is throwing the football well with Kirk Cousins under center, and it possesses the running game to keep the Seahawks off balance. After back-to-back strong performance, Cousins had a rough outing last time out. That poor performances assures us he'll be focused and ready to bounce back strong. You want to back underdogs or pickems that average 7.5 passing yards or more per attempt following three consecutive games of averaging 7.0 passing yards per attempt or more. Doing so has produced a 22-4 ATS mark the last five seasons and an 11-1 ATS record the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Patriots +1.5

The Key: The Patriots were embarrassed on Monday Night Football and have been taking a beating in the media as a result. I expect Brady and Belichick to do what they've done time and time again - respond. The Patriots have a short week to prepare while the Bengals have had an extra week, but motivation is the best medicine. New England will draw extra motivation from last season's seven-point loss in Cincinnati. The Patriots are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. They are 17-6 ATS under Belichick off a double-digit defeat, bouncing back to win by an average score of 27.9 to 19.5 in these spots. The Patriots are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning road record. You want to fade road teams off a win of 21 points or more when they are up against a team that was held to three points or less in the first half of their last game. Doing so has produced a 34-10 ATS mark the last 10 seasons and a 13-2 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take New England.

7* AFC Game of the Year on Jets +7

The Key: Off three consecutive defeats, New York will be highly motivated when it takes the field Sunday. The Jets have yet to cover a spread this season while the Chargers have covered in each of their games, and we are catching a great number as a result. New York's record is not indicative of how good it is. It is outgaining opponents by an average of 75 yards on the season. Consider that the Chargers have outgained their foes by just 27 yards on average. The Jets are averaging more yards per game and allowing less yards per game than San Diego. Turnovers have let the Jets down the past couple weeks, but they are catching a big enough number here to cover the spread even if they lose the turnover battle. Teams off blowout victories tend to be overvalued. The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 14 points and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. It is also worth noting that they are 0-7 ATS in home games the last three seasons following a game where they finished over the total. They have lost in this situation by an average score of 25.0 to 14.4. The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in San Diego. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Bills +7.5

The Key: Off back-to-back losses, the Bills will be lacking no motivation. I also expect them to get a boost from Kyle Orton taking over under center. The veteran brings experience to the huddle and has performed well at all of his stops. Backing the bills off two or more consecutive spread losses has been a good move as doing so has produced a 44-27 ATS mark since 1992. Backing them off a road loss has resulted in a near-perfect 10-1 ATS record the last three seasons. Detroit has won three of four to start the season, but is a dismal 10-27 ATS since 1992 following a stretch of three wins in four games. The Lions are also a lousy 24-44 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the last 22 years. And, they are 0-8 following a non-conference contest over the last three seasons, losing in this spot by an average score of 27.5 to 23.3. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +3.5

The Key: I'll take the points with the Chiefs at home against a New England team that is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games. In order to be a good road favorite, you better be able to move the football - something the Patriots have struggled to do this season. They rank 29th in the NFL in total offense, and their normally reliable passing attack ranks 31st with just 196.3 yards per game. Part of the problem has been an offensive line that has already surrendered seven sacks. Kansas City has the horses to get after Tom Brady tonight. And, the Chiefs have done a good job defending the pass, ranking 8th in the NFL in that category. The Patriots are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on grass playing surfaces. Take the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on 49ers -4.5

The Key: The 49ers are a terrific 24-8-3 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS loss. They were upset in Arizona last week but are 32-15 ATS off an upset loss since 1992. If that loss occurred on the road, this trend tightens up to a blistering 18-5 ATS. Keep in mind they won by an average score of 30.4 to 14.5 in these 23 contests. The Niners are an impressive 17-7 ATS when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points under coach Harbaugh. They are also 10-2 ATS when playing against teams with a win percentage greater than 75% under their current coach. They have ripped these teams, defeating them by an average score of 28.0 to 17.9. The 49ers are once against an elite defensive team so I expect them to be up to the challenge against Philadelphia's offense. They are 9-2 ATS under Harbaugh against teams that average 375.0 yards per game or more. I'm also expecting a breakout game for the San Francisco offense against a Philadelphia defense that has struggled. Lay the points.
 

6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Titans +7.5

The Key: This line is an overreaction to Indy's blowout win at Jacksonville and Tennessee's blowout loss at Cincy. The Titans have played the Colts extremely tough in recent years, and I expect the trend to continue. Indy has won the last five meetings but only one of the last four victories have come by more than 7.5 points.  In fact, the Titans have kept the score within this number in six of their last eight contests with the Colts. You want to back poor offensive teams like Tennessee that average 14.0-18.0 points per game when they are off a loss of 21 points or more and are up against a poor defensive team that gives up 23.0-27.0 points per game. Doing so has produced a 24-4 (86%) ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* Situational Annihilator on Buccaneers +9

The Key: Tampa Bay fits into a couple phenomenal wagering situations. You want to back underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 points per game or fewer after a game where they gave up 40 points or more. Doing so has produced a 77-38 (67%) ATS mark since 1983. You also want to take any bad offensive team that averages 14.0-18.0 ppg after playing a game in which 50 total points or more were scored when they are matched up against a team that gives up 23.0-27.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 28-7 (80%) ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this situation are 14-1 ATS the last five seasons. The Bucs are a better team than they've shown so far. They will be hungry after getting embarrassed by Atlanta last Thursday, and they will benefit from three extra days of preparation time. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +2

The Key: Expect a letdown from the Lions as they head out on the road following a satisfying win over Green Bay. Look for the Jets to put forth a gritty performance at home as they look to bounce back following consecutive defeats. Detroit hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last 4. It has also been a dead as road chalk, going 8-22 ATS as a road favorite since 1992. It's 4-13 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less during this span. The Jets have had one less day to prepare having played the Monday nighter last week, but playing this one at home certainly helps. They are 18-4 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992, winning by an average score of 23.7 to 16.6 in this spot. They are 9-2 ATS in this situation under coach Ryan with a 9.4-point average margin of victory. The Jets are on a 16-6 ATS run in their next game after playing on Monday Night Football. Take the Jets.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Giants +4

The Key: The Giants catch Washington at a good time. The Redskins are extremely banged up, and the short week adds insult to injury. The Giants have some nice momentum on their side following a 30-17 victory over Houston while the Redskins are off a deflating 37-34 loss at the Eagles. The Giants have been very competitive against Washington.  In fact, they have won or lost by fewer than four points in 10 of the last 12 meetings, including four straight. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Redskins are 5-19-2 ATS in their last 26 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Jets -2.5

The Key: Expect a letdown from Chicago following last week's big come-from-behind win in San Francisco.  The Bears have been a poor investment after cashing a ticket, going 1-7 ATS in their last eight.  They have also been a bad play in games odds makers expect to be close.  They are just 4-13 ATS the last three seasons when the line is +3 to -3.  The Bears were outgained 361-216 last week but were bailed out by four San Francisco turnovers.  With this, it is worth noting that they are 1-9 ATS the last three seasons following a game with a turnover margin of plus-two or better.  The Chicago defense has been extremely vulnerable against the run.  In fact, it ranks 31st in the league with 160.0 yards allowed per game.  The Jets lead the league in rushing with 179.0 yards per game.  Look for the Jets to "run" away with a victory tonight.  Lay the points.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Titans +7

The Key: After an impressive Week 1 performance in Kansas City, the Titans were crushed at home by Dallas last week.  Look for them to come storming back with a strong showing in Cincinnati.  The Titans are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a spread loss.  The Titans have won or lost by 7 points or less in 13 of 16 all-time meetings, including 6 of the last 7 meetings in Cincinnati.  The Bengals are off a pair of wins and covers to start the season and are being overvalued as a result.  Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Divisional *CA$H COW* on Jaguars +7

The Key: This is a tough spot for the Colts going on the road in a short week after blowing a double-digit lead and losing at home to Philadelphia on Monday Night Football.  The Jaguars are 0-2, but I expect a strong effort from them here in their home opener.  Not only will they be motivated by an 0-2 start, but they'll be out for revenge after getting kicked by the Colts twice last season.  You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that won just 25-40% of their games last season as doing so has produced a 28-8 ATS mark the last five seasons.  These teams have been six-point underdogs on average but have lost by only 2.4 points on average.  Take the points.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Giants +2.5

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats, look for the Giants to respond at home Sunday.  They are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Texans are on a 0-7 ATS skid after playing their last game on the road and have lost by an average of 10.9 points in these contests.  Houston is also on a 0-7 ATS slide in games played on fieldturf.  Houston has been outgained in each of its first two games but has managed to roll due to a plus-5 turnover margin.  Turnovers have cost the Giants thus far, but I don't see it continuing.  They'll make a concerted effort to take care of the football this week and will come out on top as a result. 

6* Thursday Night NFL Annihilator on Buccaneers +7

The Key: Tampa Bay has struggled offensively through its first two games, but it should be able to move the football on an Atlanta defense that ranks dead last in the NFL with 472.0 yards allowed per game.  Tampa Bay has had a ton of success running the football on the Falcons. It has averaged 147 rushing yards in the last three meetings, and its ground game will be instrumental in keep this one close.  Tampa Bay has long been extremely competitive in the series.  In fact, it is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall and 10-4 in their last 14 in Atlanta.  You want to back underdogs or pickems that won just 25-40% of their games last season as doing so has produced a 47-17 ATS mark the last five seasons.  Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Colts -3

The Key: The Colts haven't lost consecutive games in the regular season with Andrew Luck under center.  They have gone a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS in bounce back spots with these 10 wins coming by an average of 8.3 points.  Indy is also on a 10-0 ATS run in home games when the total is 45.5 or higher, a 7-0 ATS run following a road loss and a 6-0 ATS run in home games after allowing 30 points or more last time out.  The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last five games after being held to less than 90 yards rushing in their last game.  The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 2 and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with the Colts.  Lay the points with Luck and company at home.

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Month on Bears +7

The Key: After a disappointing opener, I expect the Bears to come storming back in Week 2.  This is too many points for Chicago to be catching considering how competitive it has been.  Five of its last seven losses have come by five points or less.  The 49ers posted a double-digit win in Dallas last week, but they were helped out by four first half Dallas turnovers.  Consider that they were outgained 382-319 for the game, and the Cowboys outscored them 14-0 in the second half when they took care of the football.  Chicago should be able to take the Niners down to the wire if it takes care of the football, and it will place a big emphasis on doing so after three giveaways last week.  The 49ers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Chargers +6

The Key: The Seahawks are being overvalued on the road because they are the defending Super Bowl champs, they looked great in Week 1 and they have had four extra days to prepare.  I'll gladly take the points with the home team as they have been extremely competitive.  In fact, eight of their last nine losses have come in games that were decided by a single score.  Seattle has shown some vulnerability when stepping away from the 12th Man.  It went 6-2 on the road last regular season, but three of those wins came by five points or less.  In other words, the Seahawks lost or won by less than six points in five of eight regular-season road contests last year.  The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games in September.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.  Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Early Annihilator on Cowboys +3.5

The Key: We were on the Titans +3.5 in Week 1 and watched them take care of business in Kansas City, but they are getting too much respect from odds makers here as a result.  The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread win and 0-6 ATS in the last six home games.  Tennessee is also on a 0-7 ATS slide when the total is at 49.5 or higher, and it has lost these contests by an average score of 40.4 to 21.0.  Dallas is on a strong 13-3 ATS run in road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half.  Tony Romo struggled in the first half last week, and it cost the Cowboys.  Don't count on him laying another egg here.  Take the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens -1

The Key: Motivated by a loss in Week 1, I expect the Ravens to bounce back strong at home against a Pittsburgh team they have defeated four times in the last six meetings.  The Steelers have been a poor early season investment, going 0-6 ATS in their last six September contests.  They are 3-12 ATS all-time under Tomlin in road games in the first month of the season.  It is also worth noting that they are 0-6 ATS under Tomlin in road games after gaining an average of seven yards or more per play in their previous game.  They have lost by an average of 4.2 points in this situation.  The Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record.  Take Baltimore.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Lions -6

The Key: I'll lay the points with the Lions at home as they have the edge on both sides of the football.  New York's O-line is an area of concern, and I see it having major problems against Detroit's D-line - Ziggy Ansah (eight sacks last year), Ndamukong Suh (5 1/2) and Nick Fairley (six).  New York's defense should be improved, but I don't see it being a well-oiled machine right out of the gate, especially against a team with so many offensive weapons.  New York won't have an answer for Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush tonight.  In addition, the Lions will have the motivational edge.  Unlike New York which finished last season strong, the Lions lost their last four games and six of their final seven.  One of those losses came in OT at home to the Giants so Detroit will be out for a little revenge.  The Giants are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five September contests and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Week 1 matchups.  The Lions are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 season openers.  Lay the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Buccaneers -2

The Key: Cam Newton isn't 100 percent, and I expect him to take a step back this season as he adjusts to a new group of wideouts.  He's at his best when he moves outside the pockets and looks for opportunities to run, but I expect him to be hesitant here with the sore ribs.  Tampa Bay's defense should be improved under Lovie Smith, and the Bucs also got an upgrade at QB with Josh McCown, who had a 108.2 passer rating in five starts for Chicago last season.  The Bucs will bring a little extra enthusiasm to their opener as they seek revenge for a pair of lopsided losses to Carolina last season.  The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five season openers.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.  Lay the points.

6* NFC South *CA$H COW* on Falcons +3

The Key: Atlanta opens the season with plenty of motivation following a 4-12 campaign.  Despite what the record might lead you to believe, the Falcons were very competitive.  They suffered seven losses by seven points or less with two of those coming against the Saints.  They'll be out for revenge here, and I really like their chances of an outright "W" as the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  It is also worth noting that Atlanta is 7-0 ATS all-time in home games in the first two weeks of the season under coach Smith.  It has won these by an average score of 30.7 to 18.7.  Take the points.

6* AFC Annihilator on Titans +3.5

The Key: The Chiefs are getting too much respect here because of last season's 11-6 record.  I believe they overachieved last year with losses in 6 of their last 8 games being the evidence.  They defeated Tennessee 26-17 last season, but the game was even closer than the score looks as the Titans led that game in the 4th and trailed by only three points with under five minutes remaining.  The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games, losing their last three straight up.  The Titans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  Take Tennessee.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Seahawks -5.5

The Key: Seattle has been unstoppable at home where it is 15-1 during the regular season the past two years.  I expect Green Bay to be more formidable this season, but this isn't a good spot for the Packers.  Seattle has the horses to get to Aaron Rodgers, who has been sacked an NFC-high 139 times since 2010.  He was sacked eight times the last time the Packers visited Seattle.  Green Bay's defense really struggled last season, ranking 24th in points allowed per game (26.8) and 25th in yards allowed per game (372.3).  Losing defensive tackle B.J. Raji for the season especially hurts with the way Seattle is capable of dominating the trenches.  The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS all-time as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points under Pete Carroll, winning these games by an average score of 28.1 to 11.1.  They are also 8-0 ATS all-time in home games in the first month of the season under Carroll, winning these contests by an average score of 26.8 to 13.1.  Lay the points.