4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nets/Rockets OVER

I'm not worried about this big total here, as this game has a shootout written all over it. Houston comes in averaging 110.8 ppg at home and will be facing a Brooklyn defense that is giving up 118.2 ppg on the road. The Nets are a much better offensive team that people give them credit for and come in averaging 106.0 ppg. Houston is allowing just 100.0 ppg at home, but I look for them to struggle to bring the effort defensively here against a bad team, who is going to let them do whatever they want offensively.

Pace is a key thing when looking at totals and this one should feature a frantic pace, as the Nets come in 2nd in the league in pace this season and Houston is a respectable 11th. Another big key with the Rockets offense, is they are 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and the Nets are 29th in defensive efficiency.

OVER is 14-4 in the Nets last 18 against teams who teams who attempt 18 or more 3 points shots/game and 9-1 in their last 10 against teams who are scoring 103+ ppg. OVER is also 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 when playing against a bad team (Winning Percentage of 25% to 40%). Take the OVER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Suns/Jazz OVER

I think the books have set the bar way to low here on the total for tonight's game between the Suns and Jazz. While Utah is only allowing 91.8 ppg at home and just 95.1 ppg on the season, they haven't been locking down opponents of late, giving up 102.5 ppg over their last 5. Phoenix is a team that is capable of scoring on anyone and come in having put up 100+ in all but 4 games this season. They are really clicking at the moment, as they are shooting 49.6% from the field in their last 5 games.

Utah is also in great form offensively right now, which is part of the reason they haven't been getting after teams defensively. The Jazz have scored at least 105 points in 5 straight games and will have no problem keeping that streak going against the Suns, who are giving up 113.2 ppg on the season and 115.2 ppg on the road.

OVER is 12-4 in the Suns 16 games this season against teams who average at least 18 3-point attempts per game, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 100 or more points in 3 straight games, 11-2 in their last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-0 this season against teams with a winning record. OVER is also 8-0 in Utah's last 8 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Blazers OVER

I'm expecting a shootout in Portland Saturday night between the Heat and Blazers. Miami has been one of the better defensive teams early on this season, as they come into this one allowing just 98.8 ppg. However, this is not a good spot for the Heat and the effort needed to play well defensively. Miami will be playing their 3rd straight road games in 4 days and 7th road game in their last 9 games overall. It's about as tough of a road slate as you will find, especially playing their last two at Utah and Denver on back-to-back nights and then having to turn around in play in Portland.

The defense has already showed signs of slipping here lately, as they have allowed 100+ points in 6 of their last 8. Hard to see them slowing down a potent Portland offense on the road, as the Blazers come in averaging 113.3 ppg at home and have failed to eclipse to the 100-point mark just twice all season. The Blazers are also awful defensively, as they have only held two opponents under the century mark, giving up 100+ in each of their 14 games. Miami's offense has scored 100+ in 4 straight, so they are in good form and should have no problem making it 5 in a row. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Thunder/Knicks OVER

These two should have no problem eclipsing the total in this one. Oklahoma City comes in having scored 100+ points in 7 straight games and 10 of their last 11 overall. It's no secret that the Thunder go as Russell Westbrook goes and this is an ideal matchup for him, as Derrick Rose is not a defensive minded player and will get exposed whenever the two are matched up. The Knicks also don't have anyone else they can go to to keep Westbrook in check.

Westbrook on full go will have the Thunder playing at a fast pace here and force the Knicks to play up to their tempo. The key here is that New York is clicking offensively right now. The Knicks have scored 100+ in 6 straight games and have allowed 100+ in 5 of those. It's also worth noting that the defensive intensity doesn't figure to be there for either side in a non-conference game with both sides playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days.

OVER is 5-1 in OKC's last 6 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 against an opponent that allowed 100+ points in their previous game. OVER is also 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 when facing a team that scored 100+ points in their last game and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Hornets/Knicks OVER

New York has got something going of late, as they come in having won 4 of their last 5. A big part of that is their offense is clicking. The Knicks have scored at least 104 points in 5 straight games and have connected on 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3. They should be able to keep it going here against a Hornets team that has lost their edge on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing 109.8 ppg over their last 5 games and twice during this stretch have allowed 119 or more.

The key here is the Hornets should have no problem keeping up with the Knicks on the offensive side of the ball. Charlotte comes in averaging 105.4 ppg on the season and have hit 114 or more in 3 of their last 5. The only two times they have failed to score at least 100 points in their last 9 games were against the Cavs and Grizzlies. New York doesn't figure to be able to add their name to the list, as they enter ranked 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and are allowing 105.9 ppg.

I also think there's some extra factors favoring a high-scoring game. I don't see the intensity being their on defense after the holiday break yesterday. On top of that, these two teams will face off again tomorrow in Charlotte. OVER is 10-3-2 in the last 15 meetings overall and a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in New York. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Total Annihilator on Thunder/Kings OVER

I look for the Kings and Thunder to cruise past this total tonight. Oklahoma City has allowed 100+ points in 8 straight games and that trend doesn't figure to come to an end with the Thunder playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. Especially against a Kings team that is clicking offensively right now. Sacramento comes in averaging 110.5 ppg over their last 4 games.

It's not just the Kings that will be filling up the stat sheet, Oklahoma City has scored 100+ in 7 of their last 8 games and come in averaging 112.3 ppg over their last 4. They shouldn't have any problem keeping the offense going, as Sacramento ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.4 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 12-2 in OKC's last 14 road games against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 100+ points last time out. We also have a strong system in play, as the OVER is 63-28 (69%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more, where the road team is coming in off a loss by 3-points or less and playing an opponent that has scored 100+ points in 4 straight games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Lakers OVER

I'm expecting a high-scoring game Friday night when the Lakers host the Spurs on ESPN. This LA team has been a pleasant surprise early on this season and they are playing an exciting brand of basketball, as new head coach Luke Walton has brought over a similar type of offense to the Warriors. The Lakers will jack up 3's as much as they can and will be looking to push the pace. I believe they can dictate the tempo here playing on 2 days of rest. 

San Antonio likes to play at a little slower pace, but will have no problem picking up the tempo here. The Spurs should be able to put up a big number here against a Lakers defense that is giving up north of 108 ppg. San Antonio is a well-oiled machine offensively and are actually scoring better on the road than they are at home. The Spurs are averaging just 101.9 ppg on the season, but are scoring 108.8 ppg on the road. Lakers are also a much better offensive team at home, as they are putting up 115.6 ppg at home compared to their season average of 110.0 ppg. 

OVER is 6-2 in the Spurs last 8 road games and 5-1 in the Lakers last 6 on the road. OVER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the OVER!

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Thunder OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this high total. These are two of the top offensive teams in the league. Houston comes in averaging 107.8 ppg, while Oklahoma City isn't too far behind at 108.9 ppg. The Thunder being at home only adds more value here, as OKC's scoring average jumps to 108.9 ppg at home and the Rockets are averaging 110.0 ppg on the road.

It's also important to note that while both teams don't play at a frantic pace, they both like to get up and down the floor. I believe the biggest factor here is the matchup at point guard. James Harden and Russell Westbrook are putting up video game type numbers to start the season. Harden comes in averaging 30.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg and 12.6 apg. Westbrook is right there with him at 32.0 ppg, 9.7 rpg and 9.9 apg. Houston has the more weapons overall on offense, but the Rockets don't play much defense, especially Harden.

We also find a strong system in play. The OVER is 51-23 (69%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a home win by 10 or more points (Houston) in a game involving two marginal winning teams (Win % at 51% to 60%). Take the OVER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Jazz/Hornets UNDER

I really like the value here on the total in Wednesday's matchup between the Hornets and Jazz. The strength of both of these teams is their defense. Utah comes in allowing just 94.4 ppg and Charlotte is giving up just 96.5 ppg. Both rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency, as the Hornets are 2nd and the Jazz are 10th.

The key here is that Utah is a team that wants to slow down the pace of the game. In fact, they come in dead last in the NBA in pace at 93.5 possessions per game. I expect them to look to play even slower than normal here, as this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 nights. Note that Charlotte has played just one team in their first 6 games who ranks in the bottom 10 in pace. That's Miami, who is currently 22nd. That game finished with 188 points and both teams shooting 38% or worse from the field.

It's also worth pointing out Utah has played 4 games against teams who rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. The only one that saw more than 194 points was a game at San Antonio, where the two combined for 197. Utah shot the lights out in that game, hitting 15 3-pointers and shooting 50% from the field. I'll take my chances that doesn't happen here against the Hornets. The other 3 against Top 10 defensive teams saw 186 or fewer points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Hawks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER on the total in tonight's NBA clash between the Hawks and Wizards. Neither of these teams were in action the last two nights, so this is there season opener and it comes in a key division matchup, as both of these teams figure to be fighting for the top spot in the Southeast. I look for both sides to come out with a ton of energy on the defensive side of the ball and lead to a much lower scoring game than what this line would suggest. 

Atlanta had some big chances over the offseason. They parted ways with two of their best players in Al Horford and Jeff Teague. The only real significant move they made to improve the roster in free agency was Dwight Howard, who will start in place of Horford. Taking over for Teague will be Dennis Schroder. I think both of these guys are upgrades defensively and I look for the Hawks to play at a slower pace this year. 

Washington returns their core starters from last year with the focus centered around the backcourt duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Wizards aren't a great defensive team, but they should be able to keep the Hawks new look lineup in check here. At the same time, I think Atlanta's going to make things difficult for Washington, as the Wizards won't get a ton of easy looks inside with Howard patrolling the paint. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder/Warriors OVER

Game 1 saw a combined score of just 210 points, easily finishing UNDER the total posted of 225. The books have adjusted for Game 2 by dropping the total down 3-points and I think it's a big mistake. Neither team shot the ball well, as both finished under 45% from the field. Keep in mind in the two previous meetings both teams shot at least 47%. 

Curry and Thompson combined for 51 points, but Curry was just 9 for 22 from the field. A mark he can easily better in Game 2. As for the Thunder, Westbrook had a monster 3rd quarter, but was just 7 for 21. Durant was even worse at 10 for 30. I'm also confident we aren't going to see another 14 point quarter from the Warriors like we did in the final period of Game 1. Golden State had scored at least 116 points in all 3 of the regular season meetings and would have eclipsed that if it wasn't for the awful showing in the 4th. 

OVER is 11-2 in the Thunder's last 13 after covering at least 5 of their last 7 and 13-4 in their last 17 after winning 8 or more of their previous 10. Take the OVER!  

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Thunder UNDER

I really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Spurs and Thunder. Both teams are going to come out and lay everything on the line to bring home a victory. San Antonio understands what going up 3-1 means and OKC knows they have to win here and tie it up at 2-2 if they want any chance of advancing to the next round. 

Each of the last two games in the series have finished below the mark set for this matchup and I believe we are going to see the lowest scoring game of the series tonight. Greg Popovic has now had 3 games to get a feel for what OKC wants to do offensively and I look for the Spurs to make life miserable for the Thunder offensively. At the same time, OKC is more than capable of keeping the Spurs offense in check, which they have shown the last 2 games, holding San Antonio under 43% shooting from the field. 

UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the Thunder's last 8 home games when playing only their 4th game in 10 days and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 14-2 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 5-1 in their last 6 off a cover. It's also worth noting the UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings overall between these two teams in OKC. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Cavs UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total for Game 1 of Eastern Conference semifinals between the Hawks and Cavaliers. Atlanta held the Celtics to just 93.8 ppg in their opening series, while the Cavaliers limited the Pistons to just 95.0 ppg. 

Not a huge surprise as these were two of the top defensive teams during the regular season. Cleveland finished 4th in points allowed at 98.3 and the Hawks were 6th at 99.2. Both also rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency with Atlanta 2nd and Cleveland 10th. It's also important to note that the Cavs are a team that are capable of playing much better defense than what they showed over an 82-game regular season and the Hawks improved greatly on defense in the 2nd half. 

These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as they played in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland ended up sweeping that series, but the first two games of the series featured 185 and 176 combined points.

UNDER is 9-1 in Cavs last 10 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days and 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 road games after covering 2 straight as a favorite. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors/Pacers UNDER

These two teams will be facing off for the sixth time in the last 14 days and needless to say they are very familiar with what each other at this point. Each of the first 4 games finished UNDER the total, including both games in Indiana, but the two did go over the mark in Game 5 at Toronto. I believe that has created some value here on the UNDER. 

This is a crucial game for both teams. Indiana is facing elimination on their home floor, while Toronto wants to avoid another playoff collapse. Keep in mind two years ago they had a 3-2 lead against the Nets and proceeded to lose Game 6 in Brooklyn and Game 7 at home. Even with a game to play with, Toronto is going to come out like they are facing elimination as well. Both teams are going to lay everything they have on the defensive side of the ball. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Pacers last 17 home games after covering the spread in their last contest and 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more points in the 1st half of their previous game. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER! 

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Celtics UNDER 

I really like the value here with the total in Game 4 between the Hawks and Celtics. These two teams combined for 214 points in Game 3, easily eclipsing the total of 203.5. There's a couple of factors that led to the high-scoring affair. Boston switched up their style of play and went with a smaller lineup, which I believe caught the Hawks off guard. Atlanta was also in a prime letdown spot in terms of defensive intensity with a 2-0 series lead. 

I look for the Hawks to make the adjustments to the Celtics new look and to come out with a lot more motivated than what we saw in Game 3. Atlanta isn't going to let Isaiah Thomas go off for 40+ points in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that the Hawks held Boston to just 72 points in the previous game and held them under 40% shooting in both Game 1 and Game 2. 

UNDER is 19-6 in the Hawks last 25 when leading in a playoff series, 11-4 in their last 15 games in the first round of the playoffs and 5-0 in their last 5 after failing to cover the spread last time out. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Celtics last 11 after covering their previous game and 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 100+ points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Celtics/Hawks OVER

The Hawks and Celtics went UNDER the total in Game 1, as they combined for 203 points with a total posted at 206.5. The books have adjusted slight for Game 2, but I think that's a mistake. These two teams combined for 203 points with neither team shooting well from the field. 

Boston only hit 36.3% (37-102) from the field, while the Hawks weren't much better at 40.7% (35-86). Atlanta was also a miserable 18.5% (5-27) from behind the 3-point line, well below their season average of 35.2% at home. I look for both teams to come out and shoot the ball much better and with the tempo they are playing at, this game should fly over the total. 

Keep in mind that Boston lost one of their best defensive players in Avery Bradley, which is a bigger loss than people think. It's also worth noting that in the previous 3 meetings during the regular season these two teams combined for at least 210 points. A mark I see them eclipsing tonight. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Playoffs Early Bird Total Annihilator on Pacers/Hawks UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring game in tomorrow's series opener between the Raptors and Pacers. The fact that both of these teams average right around 102.0 ppg, will have the public backing the over with this low total, but you can't overreact to regular season numbers. 

The playoffs are a completely different than the regular season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The intensity is simply taken to a whole new level and while both teams are good offensively, these are also two teams that no how to get after it on the defensive side of the ball. 

UNDER is 12-4 in the Pacers last 16 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 9-1 in their last 10 after scoring 60+ points in the 1st half of their last game and 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. UNDER is also 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 against the Eastern Conference and 24-15 in their last 39 after scoring 100+ in two straight games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Blazers/Nuggets OVER

The books have simply set the mark too low on tonight's total between the Blazers and Nuggets. While Portland is still fighting for playoff position, they are ensured that they won't finish worth than 6th. That's huge, as it means they will avoid having to face the Spurs and Warriors in the first round. 

The key here is the Blazers haven't been playing a whole lot of defense of late, even with them fighting for position. Portland has allowed at least 106 points in 4 straight games and 100+ in 11 of their last 14 overall.

I look for there woes to continue here against the Nuggets. While Denver only managed 84 in their last game, it came against one of the best defensive teams in the Jazz. Prior to that the Nuggets had scored 100+ in 3 straight. Defensively the Nuggets have allowed 100+ in 13 of their 14 and are giving up 105 ppg on the season. 

OVER is 10-2 in the Blazers last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 straight games and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 7-3 in the Nuggets last 10 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Hawks UNDER

I believe the books have set the bar way too high for tonight's total between the Suns and Hawks. Phoenix comes into his game really struggling to get anything going offensively. The Suns have failed to score 100 points in 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall. 

Their offensive woes figure to continue against the Hawks, who are going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back losses to the Raptors and Cavaliers. Atlanta is currently sitting tied with Boston for the No. 3 seed in the east, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of both Miami and Charlotte. Homecourt is something the Hawks desperately want in the first round and getting the No. 3 seed ensures they won't see the Cavaliers until the conference finals. 

UNDER is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 at home against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 21-8 in the Suns last 29 after allowing 100 or more in 5 straight games and 10-2 in their last 12 road games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game. UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings of this series. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational Total No Brainer on Nets/Knicks UNDER

These two teams don't exactly like each other, which is a good sign that both will come out with some energy on the defensive side of the ball. With the way their offenses are playing, I believe we are getting some great value here with a total over 200 points. 

Brooklyn managed just 87 points on 37% shooting in their last game and aren't in a good spot to bounce back. The Nets will not only be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. Brooklyn will have no choice but to slow the tempo down and they already rank 21st in the league in pace. 

New York won't mind the slower tempo, as they rank 25th in pace. The Knicks also will be missing a huge piece of their offense, as Porzingis is doubtful with a shoulder injury and point guard Jose Calderon is questionable with a quad injury. Keep in mind that New York is coming into this game struggling offensively. They have scored 93 or less in each of their last 3 and 94 or fewer in 8 of their last 10. 

UNDER is 8-0 in the Knicks last 8 when playing on 1 day of rest, 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games, 5-1 in their last 6 off a SU loss, 13-3 in their last 16 home games overall and 7-1 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Celtics/Pacers OVER

While the Celtics failed to score 100+ for the first time in 9 games in their last game and the Pacers managed just 75 points at Atlanta last time out, I look for both offenses to put on a show tonight. The Celtics 98-point effort against the Rockets was simply a result of an off night shooting. Boston comes in averaging 106.1 ppg. 

Both of these team rank in the top 10 in pace of play, with the Celtics the better of the two at No. 3. With Boston coming into this game having not played since last Friday, we can expect the Celtics to be running up and down the floor. They should be able to have their way with a Pacers defense that has given up 100+ in two straight. 

I also look for Indiana to score at will here. The Celtics are giving up 103.7 ppg on the road overall and have allowed 113.6 ppg over their last 5 away from home. No surprise, every one of those games finished over the total. 

OVER is 38-15 in Boston's last 53 road games when playing with 3 or more days of rest and the OVER is 36-7 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more where you have a team playing 3 or less games in 10 days that has lost 2 of their last 3. OVER is also 46-19 on Tuesday over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a road blowout loss by 20 or more. Take the OVER! 

5* Cavs/Clippers NBA Heavy Hitter on UNDER

I'm expecting both teams to come out sluggish, which should lead to a much lower scoring game than the books are expecting. Rarely do you see teams on the west coast playing this early in the day and on top of that, players have to adjust to daylight savings time. This is also a big time matchup, which tends to lead to a lot more effort on the defensive end. 

Both of teams can light it up offensively and that overshadows how good they are defensively. Both of these teams rank in the Top 8 in defensive efficiency. Cleveland is only giving up 97 ppg on the road and the Clippers are allowing just 98.8 ppg at home. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Cavaliers last 17 after covering 4 of their last 5, 22-10 in their last 32 games played on Sunday and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 2 days of rest. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Clippers last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record, 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 22-5 in their last 27 when facing an opponent who allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 

The books have set the total way too high for this matchup. These two teams just played back on 2/24 and combined for just 202 points with a total of 210. The books have adjusted, but not enough. In fact, each of the last 6 meetings in the series have seen a combined score less than the number posted here. 

Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace in this one, as both are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Philadelphia figures to really struggle offensively, as they have lost Okafor for the season and will also be without Covington. Those are two of their top 3 scorers, who combine for nearly 30.0 ppg. 

UNDER is 9-1 in the Pistons last 10 road games when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, 6-1 in their last 7 road games overall and 17-7 in their last 24 road games against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 24-10-1 in the 76ers last 35 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Jazz UNDER 

The books have set the mark way too high for tonight's showdown between the Jazz and Wizards. This is an important game for both teams. After losing each of their last 3 games, Washington is now 2.5-games out of the 8th and final spot in the east. Utah has lost 7 of their last 8 to fall 3-games back of the 8th spot in the west. 

This is a game that both teams desperately want and need, which I believe is going to lead to a max defensive effort from both teams. Utah allowed 115 in their last game against the Warriors, but had held each of their previous 3 opponents to 94 or less and giving up only 94.2 ppg at home this season. Washington's defense has slipped in their last few games, but have held 8 of their last 13 to 100 or less. They also haven't allowed Utah to score more than 91 in each of the last 4 meetings. 

UNDER is 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 against a team with a losing record, 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 100 or more and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 12-3 in Utah's last 15 against a team with a losing record and 22-10 in their last 32 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year on Heat/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown in tonight's matchup between the Bucks and Heat. Neither of these teams like to play at a fast pace. Milwaukee ranks 22nd in pace and the Heat are 26th. I look for the defensive intensity to be there for both teams. Miami has had the last 2 days off and will be motivated to get a win with road games at Chicago and Toronto on deck. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back losses and will be focused here against a top level team at home. 

These two teams combined for 210 points in the most recent meeting on 1/29. However, both teams shot lights out from the field. Milwaukee hit 47.5% of their field goal attempts and the Heat were even better at 50%. Keep in mind the total for that game was just 194.5. The previous meeting this season at Miami only saw a combined score of 170. I just think there's too much value here with the total over 200. 

UNDER is 12-2 in the Heat's last 14 road games as a favorite of 3 or less, 11-2 in their last 13 road games when playing with 2 days of rest, 10-3-2 in their last 15 against a team with a losing record and 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central. UNDER is also 9-2-2 in the Bucks last 13 against a team with a winning record, 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring 100 points and 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against Miami. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Jazz UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle tonight between the Jazz and Hawks. Both teams have really been playing well on the defensive side of the ball here of late. Atlanta is only giving up 89.4 ppg over their last 5 and Utah has held each of their last 2 opponents to 94. Keep in mind the Jazz only give up an average of 94.3 ppg at home on the season. 

Both teams also come into this game off a 2 day break, which should have both bringing the intensity on the defensive side of the ball. This is also a big game for both teams. Atlanta is just 3-games ahead of 9th place Detroit, while the Jazz are 1.5 back of 8th place Houston for the final spot in the west. 

These two teams combined for 193 points in Atlanta back on 11/15, barely eclipsing the total of 192. That was with both teams shooting lights out from the field. The Hawks hit 48.7% of their attempts, while Utah hit 51.3%. That's a good sign we will see a much lower scoring game in the rematch. 

UNDER is 16-4 in Utah's last 20 home games against teams who average 21 or fewer free throws/game, 24-11 in their last 35 against the Eastern Conference and 20-7 in their last 27 home games against a team from the east. UNDER is also 11-4 in the Hawks last 15 after scoring 100 or more points and 7-3 in their last 10 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Suns/Heat UNDER

I believe we are seeing an inflated total here based on what took place in the last game for both of these teams. Phoenix allowed 126 points in a 92-126 loss at Charlotte, going over the total set of 210. Miami poured in 129 points on a ridiculous 67.5% shooting in a 129-111 win over the Bulls, easily eclipsing the total of 201.5. Oddsmakers had no choice but to inflate this total, but the value is with the under. 

I'm confident Miami won't be shooting near 68% from the field in this one. While Phoenix is not a great defensive team, I look for Miami to struggle to bring the focus and energy against a bad team like the Suns. Keep in mind the Heat play at one of the slowest paces in the league and rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency. 

Phoenix on the other hand should come out inspired on the defensive end. As bad as they have been playing, they have continued to play hard and this is a prime bounce back spot after that ugly loss to the Hornets. Offensively the Suns figure to struggle. Phoenix ranks 28th in offensive efficiency and Miami ranks 6th in defensive efficiency. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Heat's last 29 after playing their previous game at home, 16-2 in their last 18 after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more and 7-0 in their last 7 after allowing 60 or more points in the 1st half. UNDER is also 21-7 in the Suns last 28 road games after a combined score of 205 or more in their last 2 games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Lakers OVER

I'm not expecting much defense to be played in tonight's matchup between two of the league's worst teams in the Lakers and the Nets. Both of these teams have struggled defensively this year. Brooklyn comes in allowing 103.6 ppg with opponents shooting on average 47.0% from the field. Los Angeles is even worse, giving up 107.2 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 47.2% from the field. 

Brooklyn just played last night against the Clippers and were competitive for the most part in a 95-105 defeat. While the Nets won't be traveling for this game, this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 nights and 5th straight on the road overall. Brooklyn has allowed 105+ in 3 of their 4 road games during this stretch so far with the only exception coming against the Jazz. They combined for 222 in a 116-106 win at Phoenix, who I would compare with the talent the Lakers have. 

Los Angeles hasn't been playing any defense since returning from the All-Star break. They have allowed at least 108 points in 6 straight games. The key here is they have scored 101+ points in 5 of those 6, going over 110 in 4. The Lakers come into this game off 3 days of rest and that should allow them to take advantage of the tired legs the Nets will be dealing with in this spot. 

These two teams combined for 202 points back on Nov. 6th and that was with both teams not shooting well from the field or the 3-point line. OVER is 10-1 in the Nets last 11 off a SU loss, 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record and 9-3 in their last 12 against the Western Conference. OVER is also 27-9-2 in the Lakers last 38 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Total of the Week on Knicks/Heat UNDER

I really like the value we are getting here with the total for tonight's game between the Heat and Knicks. Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 96.9 ppg, and are going to have to rely on that defense on the road in the second game of a back-to-back set. Knicks have scored 100+ in two straight, but are only averaging 99.4 ppg on the season.

New York has started to show signs of life in their last two games and held the Magic to just 95 points on 41.9% shooting in their last game. Miami's offense is not great. The Heat only average 93.9 ppg and the offense will be adjusting to newly acquired Joe Johnson. 

It's also important to note that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. Miami ranks 28th in pace and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th. These two teams have played 3 times already this season and the most they have combined for is 188 points and two of the 3 saw fewer than 180 points. 

UNDER is 14-5 in the Heat's last 19 with a line of +3 to -3, 24-9 in their last 33 after allowing 100+ in two straight games and 21-9 in their last 30 revenging a home loss. UNDER is also 19-6-1 in the Knicks last 26 against a team with a winning record, 6-2 in their last 10 at home and 5-1 in their last 6 after covering the spread last time out. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Raptors UNDER

The Cavaliers lead the Eastern Conference with an overall record of 41-15, but the Raptors are within striking distance. Toronto is just 3-games back at 38-18. This is a statement game for both teams and I look for both to come out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball. 

Both of these teams are very strong defensively. Cleveland comes in allowing just 95.4 ppg on the road, while the Raptors are giving up just 96.7 ppg at home. These two teams combined for 222 points in a 122-100 Cavaliers win at home back on 1/4. The total for that game was just 194. I know they flew over the mark, but a 14.5 point adjustment is too much! 

UNDER is 14-4 in the Raptors last 18 home games after playing in a game where 215 or more combined points were scored and 8-3 in their last 11 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. UNDER is also 15-6 in Cleveland's last 21 against the Eastern Conference, 47-19 in their last 66 against an opponent that allowed 100+ in their previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 100+ in their last contest. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Blazers UNDER

The Blazers come into this game having gone OVER the total in 4 straight games and have combined for 142 and 126 in their first two games back from the All-Star break. While the Nets went UNDER the total in their last game, the OVER has cashed in 7 of their last 9. The books have had no choice but to inflate this number, thus creating great value on the UNDER.  

This is a big letdown spot for Portland after demolishing the Warriors and holding on for a 4-point home win over a surging Utah team. I just don't see the focus being there against a Nets team they are favored against by double-digits. Brooklyn only averages 95.6 ppg on the road and have seen 15 of their 23 road games go UNDER the total. 

UNDER is 27-10-1 in the Blazers last 38 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 19-8 in the Nets last 27 as a dog of 10 or more and 14-4 in their last 18 road games off a home loss. We'll take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic/76ers UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's contest between the Magic and 76ers and it's time to take advantage. These two teams played back on 1/20 and combined for just 183 points in a 96-87 76ers win at Orlando. Overall each of the last 7 and 11 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams have gone UNDER the posted total for this matchup. 

Keep in mind that Orlando only averages 97.7 ppg on the road, while Philadelphia is scoring just 96.2 ppg at home. Neither of these teams shoot well from the field. The Magic are connecting on just 44.8% of their field goal attempts and the 76ers are at just 43.5%. 

UNDER is 9-1 in the Magic's last 10 road games off a loss by 3-points or less, 13-3 in their last 16 against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record. UNDER is also 8-2 in the 76ers last 10 against a team with a losing record and 21-8 in their last 29 after allowing 60 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. We'll take the UNDER! 

3* Spurs/Lakers NBA Over/Under No Brainer on OVER

San Antonio managed just 86 points in last night's ugly 19-point road loss to the Clippers. Regardless of who suits up for the Spurs tonight, I'm confident they are going to have zero problem exploiting the Lakers defense. LA is allowing 106.1 ppg on the season and have allowed 106+ in each of their last 3 meetings against the Spurs. 

The key here is that with the Spurs playing on no rest and the Lakers going to be highly motivated for this matchup at home, I expect LA to provide more than enough offensively to push this over the mark. The Lakers went into the break averaging 103.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Spurs are giving up an average of 99.5 ppg in their last 26 road games when they were listed as a road favorite in their previous contest. 

OVER is 18-4 in the Lakers last 22 when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. OVER is also 3-0-1 in the Spurs last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 18-8 in their last 26 off a SU loss by more than 10 points.

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Vegas Insider Total of the Week on Nuggets/Kings UNDER

I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Nuggets and Kings. While Sacramento comes in allowing a staggering 109.1 ppg on the season, they are better on that side of the ball at home (106.6 ppg). The Kings also have made it clear that they need to get better defensively and with how much this game means to their playoff chances, I expect all out effort on that side of the ball tonight. 

On the flip side of this, Denver is also perceived to be a bad defensive team, as they are giving up 103.4 ppg. However, the Nuggets went into the All-Star break really playing well on that side of the ball, as they allowed just 97.6 ppg over their last 5. This game has a little extra meaning for Denver, as head coach Michael Malone goes up against his former team. Keep in mind, Malone's a defensive guy and knows the strengths and weakness of a lot of the Kings players. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Kings last 17 home games against teams who average 99+ ppg and 9-1 in their last 10 when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Nuggets last 13 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. 

Adding to this is a great system. The UNDER is 26-6 (81%) when you have a total of 210 or more with a road team off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent off 2 straight games with 215 or more combined points. Take the UNDER! 

3* Bulls/Raptors NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER 

The Bulls come into this contest off a 95-106 loss at Cleveland last night. It was the 8th straight game in which Chicago has allowed 100 or more points. With Jimmy Butler sidelined, I just don't see the Bulls defense being able to contain the Raptors in this one, especially after playing such a big game last night against division rival Cleveland. 

Toronto was averaging 104.4 ppg over their last 5 prior to the break and have scored 100+ points in 13 of their last 14 overall. I look for a very similar type of scoring output to what we saw when these two teams last met on 1/3, as they combined for 228 points. Keep in mind it was the 5th straight meeting between these two teams where they combined for 200 or more points. 

OVER is 15-6 in Toronto's 21 games this season against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 21-5 in the Bulls las t26 against the Atlantic division and 5-2 in their last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest.

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

3* Pistons/Wizards NBA Total Dominator on OVER

I'm expecting an offensive explosion tonight in Washington. The Wizards were able to hold the Jazz to just 89 points last night, but Utah is one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Detroit comes in averaging 101.8 ppg and will have a much easier time putting up points on Washington. Keep in mind the Wizards are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and are allowing 105.1 ppg on the season. 

Detroit isn't a great defensive team either, especially on the road, where they are giving up 102.6 ppg. I don't expect the Pistons defense to be in great form tonight, as they will be working in newly acquired Tobias Harris and dealing with the losses of some key contributors. It takes time playing together to build chemistry on defense and I just don't see them having much success on that side of the ball here. 

OVER is 13-4 in the Wizards last 17 after playing their previous game against a team from the Western Conference, 6-1 i their last 7 when playing on 0 days rest and 7-2 in Detroit's last 9 against the Eastern Conference. 

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Total Top Play on Jazz/Wizards UNDER

Both the Wizards and Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs in their respective conferences and I look for both teams to come out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball after the long layoff with the All-Star break. At the same time, the long layoff will have both offenses struggling to find their rhythm in the first game back. 

Utah is the key for this one going under the total. The Jazz went into the All-Star break having won 7 of their last 8 and a big reason for that was their defense. Utah has held 8 of their last 10 opponents to 96 or fewer points and no team plays at a slower pace than the Jazz. Washington does allow 105.4 ppg, but are more than capable of slowing down a below-average Utah offense on their home floor. 

Both meetings last year between these two teams saw fewer than 180 points and 5 of the last 6 in the series have gone below the total posted for this game. Under is 26-12 in Utah's last 38 against terrible defensive teams that allow 103+ ppg and 21-9 in their last 30 against the Eastern Conference. Under is also 7-1 in the Wizards last 8 home games against a team with a losing record. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 25-6 (81%) in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where you have a team that's won 8 or more their last 10 games, who has played 3 or fewer games in the last 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA No Limit TNT Total Top Play on Spurs/Heat UNDER 

The books have set the mark too high for this TNT showdown between the Heat and Spurs. These are two of the top defensive teams in the NBA. Miami comes in allowing just 95.3 ppg and rank 6th in defensive efficiency. The Spurs are giving up just 92.8 ppg and lead the league in defensive efficiency. 

San Antonio has held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 97 or less points, while the Heat have score 98 or fewer in each of their last 3. The fact that this game is being played in Miami is key, as that should allow the Heat to control the tempo and only the Jazz play at a slower pace than the Heat. Both meetings last year saw fewer than 184 points and each of the last 4 in the series have finished with 193 or less. 

UNDER is 21-9 in the Spurs last 30 road games after going over the total in their previous game and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's 18 games this season when listed as an underdog and 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Nuggets OVER

I look for the Nuggets and Raptors to cruise past the total set for this matchup. These two teams have a history of high-scoring games, as 6 of the last 7 in the series have eclipsed the mark set by the oddsmakers. That includes a 106-105 game earlier this season that had a total of just 189.5. 

The Raptors come into this game clicking on all cylinders offensively. Toronto has scored 100+ points in 9 straight games and should have no problem extending that streak to 10 against a Nuggets team that has allowed 100+ points in 8 straight games. It's also important to note that Denver is playing very well on the offensive end right now as well, the Nuggets have scored 100+ in 8 straight. Toronto has a good defense, but just allowed 107 in their last game against the Pistons and I don't see the defensive intensity being there with this being their first road game after a lengthy 7-game homestand. 

OVER is 10-3 in the Raptors last 13 against an opponent that scored 100 or more in their last game, 23-8 in their last 31 road games after a combined score of 205+ in their last game and 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 6-1 in the Nuggets last 7 home games, 10-1 in their last 11 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the OVER! 

5* Mavs/Hawks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER 

I'm expecting a very slow pace and strong defensive intensity from both teams in this one. Dallas isn't going to be looking to run, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 5th in the last 7 days overall. However, the Mavericks do figure to come to play, as they will be out for revenge from a 95-98 loss at home earlier this season. 

Atlanta will also be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after playing yesterday in Miami. This will also be the Hawks 4th game in 6 days. Atlanta has lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, so we have every reason to expect them to show up with a lot of intensity defensively to get a win. Note that during this 6-game stretch only 1 of those came at home and that was an extremely low-scoring game against the Clippers (83-85). 

It's also important to note that both offenses come in struggling right now. The Mavericks have scored 92 or fewer in 3 of their last 4, while the Hawks have scored 95 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. Dallas has held each of their last 2 opponents under 80 points and Atlanta has allowed 86 or less in each of their last 3 home games. 

UNDER is 25-14 in the Mavericks last 29 after 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 5-1 in their last 6 when their starters combine for 160 or more minutes the previous day and 8-2 in their last 10 road games. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hawks last 5 against the Western Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 23-9 in their last 32 home games off 2 straight road losses by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Rockets/Thunder UNDER 

Due to this matchup featuring two of the more explosive offensive teams and this game being televised on NBATV, I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated total. Oklahoma City is coming off two high-scoring games against the Knicks (128-122) and Timberwolves (126-123), both of which came on the road.

Not a huge surprise to see the Thunder not bring the defensive intensity against below average opponents. They won't have any problem getting motivated against the Rockets on their home floor, as they have lost each of the last 5 meetings in the series. One thing to keep in mind with Oklahoma City is they play much better defensively at home, where they are only giving up 98.0 ppg. 

I'm also expecting a strong defensive effort here from the Rockets, as they are going to be motivated coming off an embarrassing 99-130 loss at San Antonio. The UNDER is 7-3 in the Rockets last 10 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-3 in their last 12 against a team with a winning record. 

UNDER is also 15-3 in the Thunder's last 18 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 9-1 in their last 10 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite and 9-1 in their last 10 home games off a road win where they scored 110 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle tonight between the Magic and the Grizzlies. Both of these teams are going to be highly motivated for a win. Memphis comes in off a 101-106 upset loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite, snapping a 4-game winning streak. Orlando lost 116-120 in overtime at home against the Hornets in their last game, where they gave up a 15-point lead with 7:15 left in the 4th quarter. 

Not only will the defensive intensity be there for both teams, but we have two of the slower paced and least efficient offensive teams in the NBA. Memphis ranks 27th in pace and 25th in offensive efficiency, while Orlando is 22nd in pace and 26th in offensive efficiency. I just don't see there being enough offensive possessions for this one to eclipse the mark set. 

UNDER is a perfect 9-0 in the Grizzlies last 9 home games in the 2nd half of the season against a team with a losing record. It's also 9-3 in the Magic's last 12 against a team with a winning record, 23-8 in their last 31 road games after allowing 105 or more points in their last game and 17-4 in their last 21 road games when playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Warriors ESPN Total Dominator on UNDER 

When it comes to playing elite teams at home the Bulls have been outstanding on the defensive side of the floor. Just to mention a few, Chicago has held the Cavaliers to 95, Thunder to 98, San Antonio to 89, Clippers to 80, Raptors to 97. I'm expecting that same defensive intensity against the Warriors, as they are well aware of what happened to Cleveland at home on Monday. 

These two teams played in Golden State earlier this season and combined for just 200 points with a total of 207.5. Given this is such a huge matchup and that it's a nationally televised game on ESPN, there's no doubt in mind mind this is an inflated total, especially with both teams coming off high-scoring games that went over the total. 

What gets overlooked on both of these teams is how good they are on the defensive end. Chicago ranks 6th in defensive efficiency and the Warriors are 4th. Another important factor here is that this is a bit of a letdown spot for Golden State, as there's no question that game at Cleveland meant a lot to this team. 

UNDER is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 12-2 in their last 14 against the Western Conference and 8-1 in their last 9 home games when revenging a loss to an opponent where they allowed 100 or more. UNDER is also 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Chicago. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Celtics/Raptors UNDER 

These two teams combined for 216 points in their only previous meeting this season at Boston back on 10/30. The total in that game was just 200 points. Given that both teams have cruised past the over in each of their last 3 games, you would expect to see a much higher total in this game. That's a good sign the books are expecting a lot more defense this time around and I definitely think that's going to be the case. 

Anytime you get two division rivals going at it this late in the season, especially quality teams like we have here, the defensive intensity gets turned up a notch. Overall, both of these teams have been strong defensively against their division foes this season. Boston is only giving up 99.9 and the Raptors are allowing just 94.6 ppg. 

Toronto won that first meeting 113-103 at Boston, which is important to note, as the UNDER is 12-2 in the Celtics last 14 road games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. UNDER is also 13-1 in Boston's last 14 road games off a loss by 6 points or less and 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Early Bird Over/Under Total Annihilator on Jazz/Hornets UNDER

This game has a low-scoring defensive battle written all over it. Utah should be able to dictate the tempo in this one, as they will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 4 days, while the Hornets are playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. No team plays at a slower tempo than the Jazz at 93.5.

Utah's overall defensive numbers aren't great, but that has a lot to do with center Rudy Gobert has missed a significant stretch. He's back in the lineup and the Jazz have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 100 or less, three times holding under 85. Charlotte only managed 92 points at home against the Bucks in their last game and I don't see the offense coming to life against Utah. 

Charlotte is giving up 100.4 ppg on the season, but they play much better defensively at home, where they are allowing 98.2 ppg. I look for the Hornets defense to be able to keep the Jazz in check, as Utah is far from an explosive offensive team and are without 2nd leading scorer Derrick Favors (16.8 ppg). 

Under is 31-13 in the Hornets last 44 home games as a favorite of 6 or less, 23-11 in Utah's last 34 as a road dog of 6 or less, 8-1 in the Jazz's last 9 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 20-5 in their last 25 after allowing 85 or less in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Heat/Nuggets UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it. Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 95.5 ppg. Their effort on that side of the ball doesn't lapse on the road. In fact, they actually allow only 95.1 ppg away from home, which has resulted in 12 of their 16 road games this season going under the total. 

The Heat are going to have to rely on their defense over the next few games with starting point guard Goran Dragic out with an injured calf. This will be the 2nd straight game he's missed and in his first game out the Heat managed just 90 points against the Clippers. Miami ranks 29th of 30 teams in pace at 94.5 and that isn't going to get better with Dragic out. 

Denver comes into this game off a high-scoring affair in their 112-110 upset win at home against the Warriors. Any game involving the Warriors is going to be high-scoring given their offensive weapons and how fast they like to play (rank 2nd in pace).

The key thing to keep in mind is that prior to that game against Golden State, Denver previous 3 games were all very low-scoring. They combined for just 187 in a 95-92 win at home against the Hornets, 175 in 84-91 loss at Memphis and 152 in 78-74 win at Minnesota. 

UNDER is 13-2 in Miami's 15 games over the last 2 seasons after allowing 100 or more in their previous 2 games (haven't allowed 100+ in 3 straight all season). UNDER is also 11-1 in their last 12 as a road favorite of 3 points or less and 12-3 in their last 15 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

5* Cavs/Spurs NBA No Limit Top Play on UNDER

Two of the NBA's best will square off tonight in a prime time showdown on TNT. Cleveland comes into this game having won 8 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. San Antonio has won 9 straight and 16 of their last 17 overall. This is a statement game for both teams and I expect to see near playoff intensity in this one. I believe it's going to lead to a defensive battle and a much lower-scoring game than most would expect. 

It reminds me a lot of the Christmas Day matchup between the the Cavs and Warriors. Cleveland lost that game at Golden State 83-89 for a combined total of 172 points. Well below the posted total for the game of 207.5. San Antonio is even a better defensive team than than the Warriors. The Spurs are allowing 93.5 points per 100 possessions which is the best mark in more than a decade. Cleveland ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing just 99.4 points per 100 possessions. 

UNDER is 31-17 in the Cavaliers last 48 games against high-scoring teams averaging 103+ points/game 19-9 in their last 28 as a dog and 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Knicks/Nets UNDER

These two teams combined for 199 points in a 108-91 win by the Knicks at at home back on 12/4. The total for that game was just 192.5. You would expect to see a bigger total in the rematch, but it's actually lower and for good reason. Brooklyn is not the same offensive team as they were back in early December, as they have lost starting point guard Jarrett Jack. His loss has been evident of late, as the Nets are averaging just 82.6 ppg over their last 5. 

New York is coming off a high-scoring game last night in a 120-114 win at home against the Celtics. That actually favors the under, with the Knicks playing on the road with no rest. You also have to keep in mind Boston plays at one of the fastest paces of any team in the NBA. Add in the possibility that Carmelo Anthony won't play or will be hobbled if he does, and neither offense figures to do a lot in this game. This is also a big rivalry, which is going to have both teams playing hard defensively. 

UNDER is 11-2 in the Nets last 13 when they come in having failed to cover in 3 or more consecutive games and 13-3 in their last 16 after a game where they made 20% or less of their 3-point shots. UNDER is also 23-11 in the Knicks last 34 against a team with a losing record and 11-5 in their last 16 after scoring 100+ in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Warriors UNDER

I believe the books have set this total too high for tonight's matchup between the Heat and Warriors. Only the Jazz play at a slower pace than Miami and the Heat know they have no chance of winning this game if it turns into a shootout. Miami is going to try and slow this game way down and try and grind out a win with their defense, which is giving up just 93.4 ppg on the road and ranks 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

What gets lost in all the attention that surrounds the Warriors and their ability to light up the scoreboard, is the fact that they are a very good defensive team. Golden State only allows 96.9 ppg at home and are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I look for that defense to make life miserable for a Miami offense that only averages 93.0 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 11-1 in the Warriors last 12 home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a road favorite and 12-3 in their last 15 home games off a road win by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's last 18 after a game where they failed to cover, 11-3 in their 14 road games this season and 8-0 in in their last 8 road games with a total of 200 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Knicks UNDER 

The books have set the total way too high for Sunday's showdown between the Bucks and Knicks. Neither of these teams are great offensively. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 97.9 ppg (only 96.1 ppg on the road) and New York is only marginally better at 98.2 ppg. Both teams also rank in the bottom 10 of the league in pace, so the tempo here will greatly favor the UNDER. 

These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as this will be the 4th meeting between them this season. Each of the last 2 in the series finished below the total set for this matchup and 5 of the last 6 have stayed under the mark overall. 

UNDER is 21-10 in Milwaukee's last 31 games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 3-1-1 in the Knicks last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Suns UNDER

I look for both teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. Miami is going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 90-98 loss at home to the Knicks as a 7.5-point favorite. The Heat thought they could just show up and get a win an it backed fired. Look for them to really focus in on the defensive end, where they have been dominant this season, allowing just 94.7 ppg. Adding to that, is the fact that Miami only gives up 92.8 ppg on the road. 

Phoenix isn't a great defensive team and a lot of that has to do with effort. Given their bad blood with Miami point guard Goran Dragic, who didn't exactly leave Phoenix on good terms and this will be his first game back. While effort can only get you so far, Miami is not a good offensive team and like to slow down the pace, so I'm not expecting a huge night offensively from them. 

UNDER is 14-3 in the Heat's last 17 after a game they failed to cover the spread and 10-2 in their last 12 road games. UNDER is also 7-1-1 in the Suns last 8 against a team with a winning record and 20-6 in their last 26 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Jazz/Rockets OVER

While the Rockets were held to just 93 points at Utah in their last game, it marked only the 3rd time in their last 21 games where they failed to score at least 100 points. I look for Houston to bounce back in a big way on the offensive end against the Jazz tonight, as Utah simply won't have the energy defensively to slow them down. 

Utah is playing short-handed with Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, Rudy Gobert and Dante Exum all out with injuries and that really makes it tough on them, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set after giving up 123 to the Spurs last night. Utah will have no choice but to play an up-tempo game with the Rockets in this one and while their limited offensively, Houston comes in allowing 105.8 ppg. 

OVER is 10-4 in the Rockets last 14 home games against a team with a losing road record, 8-2 in their last 10 off a win by 6 points or less, 3-0 this season when playing with 2 days of rest and 3-0 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Take the OVER!  

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Wolves OVER 

I'm expecting a shootout in Minnesota tonight between the Nuggets and Timberwolves. These two teams have played twice in the last month. They combined for 219 points at Denver on 12/11 and then 212 at Minnesota on 12/15. Given how these two teams like to get up and down the floor and the little effort they give defensively, I see no reason why this game won't finish with 210+ points. 

Denver is scoring 103.2 ppg and giving up 109.6 ppg over their last 5, while Minnesota is scoring 99.7 ppg and allowing 102.9 ppg on the season. OVER is 13-4 in the Nuggets last 17 with a total of 200 to 209.5 points and 16-6 in their last 22 against bad defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game. OVER is also 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Pistons UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring affair tonight between the Pistons and Magic. Both of these teams are going to be hungry for a win after a poor stretch. Detroit has lost 4 of 5, while the Magic have dropped 2 straight. Both of these teams can get after it defensively when they want. Orlando only allows 98.7 ppg and the Pistons are giving up just 97.7 ppg. 

A huge key here is that both teams will either be without their starting point guard or have them at less than 100%. Orlando's Elfrid Payton is questionable with an ankle injury that kept him from practicing Sunday and keep in mind that backup C.J. Watson is out indefinitely with a calf injury. Detroit's Reggie Jackson is also questionable with an ankle injury and he's the one guy this offense can't afford to lost. Jackson leads the team with 19.9 ppg and 6.4 apg. 

UNDER is 20-8 in Orlando's last 28 road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 21-9 in their last 30 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Pistons last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 4-1 in their last 5 against the Southeast. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on 76ers/Jazz UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this matchup. These two teams played in Philadelphia back on 10/30 and combined for just 170 points in a 18-point win for the Jazz. With the 76ers expected to be without leading scorer Jahlil Okafor and the Raptors playing without 3rd leading scorer Alec Burks and potentially 2nd leading scorer Derrick Favors (questionable), offense is going to be hard to come by for these two teams. 

Adding to this is the fact that Utah plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league, while the 76ers have the least efficient offense in the league. There's also a great chance this game turns into a blowout, which is a good sign for a game to under the total. 

UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in the series (each of the last 3 have seen 172 or less points). UNDER is also 20-7-1 in the 76ers last 28 following a SU win, 20-8 in Utah's last 28 vs the Eastern Conference, 18-8 in their last 26 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 38-17 in the Jazz's last 55 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ points in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER

Memphis will be returning home looking to bounce back from back-to-back road losses against the Wizards and Hornets. The Grizzlies scored just 91 and 92 points in those two games and are averaging just 94.2 ppg over their last 5. Memphis isn't a team that likes to play fast and rarely puts up a lot of points. In fact, they have eclipsed the 100-point mark just 2 times in their last 13 games. 

The Lakers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but are certainly capable of keeping the Grizzlies from scoring enough here to push this over the mark. Offensively, we don't have to worry too much about LA, as they are scoring just 89.0 ppg over their last 5 and Memphis is only giving up 93.8 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDERis 12-4 in the Lakers last 16 when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and 13-4 in their last 17 when off a home loss by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 21-4-1 in the Grizzlies last 26 against the Pacific, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on no rest, 11-3-1 in their last 15 on Sunday and 6-2 in their last 8 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational Over/Under Total No Brainer on Cavs/Blazers UNDER

The Cavaliers have allowed 90 or fewer points in 3 straight games, including a dominant defensive effort in yesterday's 83-89 loss at Golden State, which marked the first time since 2013 that the Warriors failed to score at least 90-points at home. Losing that game is only going to have the Cavaliers that much more motivated to come out and get a win against Portland. 

The Blazers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but we can expect a max effort here from Portland on that side of the ball given they are playing against James and the Cavs. UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Portland. Under is also 4-0 in the Cavaliers last 4 road games and 40-16 in their last 56 when facing an opponent that allowed 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Bulls/Mavs UNDER

The Bulls put an end to their 3-game losing streak with a dominant performance in yesterday's 105-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 10-point underdog. Chicago limited the Thunder to just 38.5% shooting and I look for that defensive intensity to carry over against the Mavericks, who are playing with starting point guard Deron Williams. 

At the same time, I look for Dallas to match the intensity of the Bulls on the defensive side of the floor. Dallas is only giving up 97.2 ppg and holding opponents to just 43.8% shooting against them at home. UNDER is 20-8 in the Bulls last 28 against the Western Conference, 8-1 in their last 9 off a cover and 20-8-1 in their last 29 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. UNDER is also 7-1 in Mavs last 8 home games and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! 

5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Christmas Day Vegas Insider on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-3-1 in the Cavs last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-1 in Cleveland's last 7 off a SU, 11-4 in the Warriors last 15 against the Central Division, and 15-7-2 in their last 24 home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Thunder NBA Situational Total Annihilator on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 10-1 in the Bulls last 11 against the Western Conference, 15-4-2 in their last 21 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 23-9 in their last 32 road games against a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also also 7-0 in the Thunder's last 7 home games, 8-1 in their last 9 against the Eastern Conference and 20-7-1 in their last 28 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Christmas Day Total No Brainer on Pelicans/Heat UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over.

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season.

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 9-3 in Miami's last 12 against the Western Conference, 15-5 in their last 20 when playing with 2 days rest and 7-3 in their last 10 games following a SU loss. UDNER is also 35-16-1 in the Pelicans last 52 road games (6-2-1 in last 8 against team with a winning home record) and 5-2 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pelicans/Blazers UNDER

These two teams recently played in Portland on 12/14 and combined for 206 points, which I believe has created some exceptional value here on the UNDER in the rematch. Not only are the two teams more familiar with one another having just recently played, but the Blazers have no choice but to try and slow this game down with Damian Lillard out and C.J. McCollum doubtful. 

Not having these two leave Portland without a go-to scorer. Lillard averages a team-high 24.6 ppg and McCollum is right behind at 20.1 ppg. The next best scorer on the Blazers is Al-Farouq Aminu at a mere 10.9 ppg. Making matters even worse, Portland will be playing their 5th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days. 

The Pelicans are coming off a 130-point effort in their win at Denver on Sunday, but only averaged 98.8 ppg over their previous 5. With New Orleans coming off a 5-game road trip and Portland in the shape they are in with the injuries to their two best players, I could see the Pelicans struggling to get up for this game, especially considering they have a huge showdown with the Heat on deck Christmas Day. 

Either way New Orleans figures to win here comfortably and that should have this game finishing well below the mark. UNDER is 8-2 in the Blazers last 10 off a cover and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Pelicans last 4  off a win  and 15-5-1 in their last 21 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Total of the Month on Mavs/Nets UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here between the Mavericks and Nets tonight. Dallas won't be looking to push the pace offensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, especially after using up a ton energy last night at Toronto trying to rally from a 13-point halftime deficit. The Mavericks also haven't been playing great offensively of late, as they have scored 99 or less in 3 straight. 

It doesn't figure to get any better against the Nets, as Dallas lost starting point guard Deron Williams to a hamstring injury against the Raptors. They also aren't expected to have backup point guard Devin Harris, leaving them thin at the point and thus must play at a slower pace. The Nets are coming off a 105-102 win at Chicago, but this is a team that is not great offensively. Brooklyn had scored 97 or less in each of their previous 4 and have only cracked the century mark 4 time sin their last 14 games. 

UNDER is 36-17 in the Mavericks last 53 games against a bad team like the Nets, who have won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is also 10-4 in Dallas' last 14 against an opponent coming off a 100-point game and 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games after scoring 100 or more. UNDER is also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 13 against the Western Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 at home. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf Total of the Month on UNDER

The books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Pistons and Heat, which isn't a big surprise given Detroit has played in 3 straight games where 200+ points were scored, including a 4-overtime thriller at Chicago in their last game where 191 combined points were scored. Miami also comes in off a high-scoring game, as they defeated the Blazers 116-109 at home. 

The key here is that this game is being played in Miami and the Heat should be able to dictate the tempo. Miami is only scoring 96.8 ppg on the season and allowing just 94.9 ppg. Detroit only averages 99.0 ppg on the road and should come out with a lot of energy on defense after a 3-day break. These two teams played earlier this season in Detroit and combined for just 185 points and that was with the Pistons exploding for 60 points in the 1st half. 

It's also worth noting that Detroit won that first meeting 104-81, as the UNDER is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10 when revenging a road loss and 7-0 in Miami's last 7 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. UNDER is also 11-0 in Miami's last 11 after allowing 105 or more points in 2 straight games, 16-4 in Detroit's last 20 road games after playing their last game as a road dog and 9-1 in their last 10 road games when playing 4 or less gams in 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Hornets UNDER

The Raptors and Hornets both come into this game off a lopsided loss in their last contest and their poor play defensively is to blame. Toronto gave up 106 points in a 16-point defeat at Indiana on Monday and Charlotte allowed 113 last night in a 15-point defeat at Orlando. 

The big key here is that these were uncharacteristic defensive performances for both teams. The Raptors had held each of their previous 4 opponents to 94 or less points, while the Hornets had allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their previous 9 games and that was the Warriors.

Adding to this is the fact that Toronto is only giving up 95.9 ppg on the road and Charlotte is allowing just 96.4 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that these two teams have combined for less than 200 points in 6 of their last 7 meetings and the lone exception came in overtime where they totaled 206. 

UNDER is 6-0 in the Raptors last 6 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 off 2 days of rest and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Hornets last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest, 32-18 in their last 50 home games after playing their previous on the road and 29-12 in their last 41 as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Southeast Total of the Month on Hornets/Magic UNDER 

The books have set this total too high for this division matchup. Both of these teams come into this game playing extremely well on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing just 91.6 ppg over their last 5 and Orlando is giving up just 95.4 ppg in their last 5. 

Just 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Southeast and that should have both playing with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball. We have seen several low-scoring games when these two face off against division opponents. Charlotte has seen an average combined score of 188.6 in their 5 division games and the Magic average a combined score of just 191 in division matchups. It's also worth noting that each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 196 or less with both games in Orlando finishing with 188 or less. 

UNDER is 12-2-2 in the Hornets last 16 against an opponent who scored 100+ points in their previous games, 11-4 in their last 15 following a SU loss and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 home games, 5-1-1 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 division games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams just played on Friday and I cashed in on the UNDER 204 with ease in a 94-90 win by Oklahoma City. While the books have adjusted the total for the rematch, there's still a ton of value on the UNDER in this one. 

Oklahoma City has gone UNDER the total in 8 of their last 9 games, including each of their last 4 at home. The Jazz have gone UNDER in each of their last 2 and 7 of 11 overall. These two teams also have a history of low-scoring games, as each of the last 6 in the series have finished below the mark. Having just played 2 days ago against each other only adds to the likelihood of another low-scoring game, as both teams are very familiar with what the other wants to do offensively.

UNDER is 11-3 in Utah's last 14 against a team with a winning record and 7-2 in their last 9 against the Western Conference. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Thunder's last 6 against a team with a losing record and 9-1 in their last 10 off a SU win. Take the UNDER!  

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown tonight between these two Central Division rivals, as both of these teams can really get after it on the defensive side of the ball. After giving up 120+ points during a 3-game losing streak, the Pacers responded by allowing just 83 in a 13-point win over the Heat last night. I look for Indiana to carry over that effort on the defensive side of the ball against a Pistons team that only averages 98.4 ppg. 

Detroit has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 95 or less and are giving up just 96.2 ppg at home on the season. The Pistons will be especially motivated in this one, after losing at home to the Pacers by 12 earlier this season. Keep in mind that earlier meeting saw a combined 176 points in a 94-82 Indiana win. 

UNDER is 41-26 in the Pacers last 67 games off a home win, 24-9 in their last 33 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Pistons last 6 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take the UNDER 201! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Thunder/Jazz UNDER

I believe the books have set the mark too high for this matchup. Oklahoma City has gone UNDER the total in 7 of their last 8 games. One of the reasons we are seeing a high total here is the Jazz have gone over in 4 of their last 5, but they come in off a game against the Knicks where they allowed just 85 points at home for a combined score of 191. 

These two teams played at Utah earlier this season and combined for 200 points and that was with the Thunder shooting a ridiculous 54.5% from the field and 40.7% from behind the 3-point line. Oklahoma City also had a 40-point outburst in the 2nd quarter. The game still went UNDER the posted total of 201 and that's now 5 straight in the series and 3 in a row at Utah where they have gone UNDER the total. 

A key factor here is that we have the Thunder coming into this game playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back set, as they hosted the Hawks last night. It's also OKC's 3rd game in 4 nights and 5 different players played 30+ minutes last night. The Thunder aren't going to have the legs to push the pace in this one and tired legs typically leads to poorer shooting from the outside. 

UNDER is 10-0 in the Thunder's last 10 after scoring 100+ in 2 straight games and 8-0 in their last 8 after 2 straight wins. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Jazz's last 13 against a team with a winning record and 11-4 in their last 15 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Clippers TNT Total Dominator on UNDER

I think we are seeing an inflated total here due to the fact that both teams come in having eclipsed the total in each of their last 3 games. The key thing to note is that these games have barely gone over for both teams. in the Clippers 3-0 over run two of those games only went over by 6 points or less. As for the Bulls, their last 3 games have all gone over by a combined 7.5 points and all 3 can be pinpointed to poor defensive effort in the 4th quarter, as Chicago has allowed 30, 42 and 30 in the final period of their last 3 games.

With this being a prime time game on TNT and these two teams being two of the more respected clubs in the NBA, I think we are going to get max defensive effort from both sides. I especially expect to see the Bulls get after it on that side of the ball on their home floor after losing 3 straight.

When the Bulls have hosted whats considered to be an elite opponent, it's resumed in a low scoring game. Chicago beat Cleveland at home 97-95, Oklahoma City 104-98, Indiana 96-95 and the Spurs 92-89. All 4 of which went under the total set for that game by at least 6 points.

UNDER is 8-0 this season in Bulls' games when they come in having played their previous game on the road, 7-1 in their last 8 against the Western Conference, 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games and 13-2-1 in their last 16 after scoring 100+ in their last game. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Clippers last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest and 5-1 in their last 6 when facing a team that allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER!  

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Hornets UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring affair between these two Southeast rivals on Wednesday as first place in the division is up for grabs. Miami is coming off a rare high-scoring game in a 103-114 loss at home to the Wizards on Monday. It was only the 4th time this season that a game involving the Heat finished over the total, as the under is 15-4 in their 19 games to this point. 

It also marked the first time that Miami eclipsed the 100-point mark in 8 games and they barely did so despite shooting a ridiculous 59.4% from the field. At the same time the Heat allowed the Wizards to shoot 50% from the field, only the 2nd time all season they have allowed a team to shoot 50% or better. The only other time was against the Kings back on 11/19 and they followed that up by allowing 91 points and 37.8% shooting in their newt game. 

Not only is this a prime spot for Miami to bounce back with a strong defensive effort, but we can also expect to see the Heat offense struggle here against a stingy Hornets defense that is allowing just 97.6 ppg and holding teams to 43.9% shooting at home. 

The last time these two teams faced off in Charlotte, they combined for a mere 154 points, which was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings at Charlotte that they combined for 185 or less. UNDER is 11-1 in Heat's last 12 after a home game where both teams scored 100+ points and 14-4 in the Hornets last 18 home games off 2 or more consecutive wins. Take the UNDER! 

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

These two teams combined for 236 points in the Grizzlies 122-114 win at home back on Nov. 16 and it's resulted in an inflated total in the rematch. That was only the second time in the last 10 meetings that these two teams combined for more than 200 points. 

One of the big reasons that we consistently see lower-scoring games between these two teams, is the familiarity they have of one another. This will be the 40th meeting between these two teams since the beginning of the 2010-11 season, which is the most of any two teams in the league during this stretch. 

While the first meeting saw a lot of offense, I think both defenses come to play this time around. Memphis has held 6 of their last 8 opponents under 100 points and the Thunder have allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that both teams come in not shooting the ball well, especially from long distance. The Grizzlies are just 24.9% from the 3-point line in their last 4 games and OKC is only hitting 29.6% in their last 4.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Grizzlies last 17 home games off a home win, 17-5 in their last 22 after a close win by 3 points or less and 15-5 in their last 20 with a total set at 200 or more points. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 road games against a team that has won more than 60% of their home games, and 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

The Pelicans and Celtics should have no problem eclipsing this high total tonight. Boston comes in averaging 102.7 ppg on the season and are allowing 100.5 ppg on the road. New Orleans is scoring 110.1 ppg at home and giving up 111.7 ppg at home. 

Both teams come in having scored at least 100 points in 3 straight games and the Pelicans have allowed 100+ in 7 straight. Boston has played good defense at times, but this is not a good spot for them. The Celtics will be playing their 5th straight road game and have two huge home games on deck against the Bulls and Warriors. 

OVER is 34-16 in Boston's last 50 road games with a total set at 210 or more points and 13-1 in the Pelicans last 14 home games after scoring 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Heat UNDER 191.5

These two teams combined for 194 points in an earlier meeting this season in Cleveland and both teams are coming off games in which the final score was more than the total listed for this matchup. This might have some looking to play the over, but I think the smart play here is to take the UNDER. 

Those that have watched Miami know that the Heat are built on defense. Miami only averages 96.3 ppg offensively, but are allowing just 92.6 ppg on the defensive side of the floor. They are holding opponents to just 41.0% shooting from the field. The Heat should be able to impose their will defensively in this one, as they catch a tired Cavaliers team playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set that saw them play an overtime game last night at New Orleans. 

Cleveland lost to the Pelicans and have no dropped 2 straight. LeBron James does not take lightly to losing and certainly doesn't want to lose against his former team and close friends. However, James played 45 minutes last night and knows that his team's only chance here is to turn this into a defensive battle, as they don't have the legs to get into a shootout. 

UNDER is 12-3 in the Cavaliers last 15 road games when they come in having failed to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and 4-1 in their last 5 when the starting 5 combined for more than 160 minutes in the previous game when playing on 0 days rest. UNDER is also 9-2 in Miami's 11 home games and 23-9 in their last 32 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Jazz UNDER 191

The books have set the total too high for Thursday's matchup between the Magic and Jazz. A big reason for that is these two teams recently played in Orlando on 11/13 and the two combined for 195 points with a total of just 189.5. It was only the 2nd time in the last 5 meetings that these two went over the total and each of the last two games played in Utah have finished under the mark. 

There's plenty of reason to expect a low-scoring game. While the Magic are giving up 99.6 ppg on the season, they have been much better of late on that side of the ball. Orlando has held each of their last 4 opponents to 93 or less. Utah is far from an explosive offensive team and are scoring just 94.5 ppg at home. The Jazz are also very good defensively, allowing just 94.0 ppg and we can expect to see Utah really get after it defensively tonight with that recent loss to the Magic fresh on their minds. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Magic's last 11 off back-to-back upset wins as an underdog and 3-1 this season when listed as a road dog of 6 points or less. UNDER is 3-0 this season after the Jazz allow 105 or more points in their previous game, 8-1 in their last 9 after allowing 100+ in 3 straight and 4-0 this season when listed as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

3* Heat/Thunder TNT Total Dominator on UNDER

Not surprised here to see the books set a big number for the total of this nationally televised matchup between the Heat and Thunder tonight. A big reason for that is the Thunder come in averaging 108.9 ppg and have scored 100+ in 5 straight. 

As good as Oklahoma City has been offensively, Miami has been equally good defensively. The Heat come in allowing just 92.5 ppg. Clearly when this team wants to get it after it on the defensive side of the ball, they can shut teams down. I think it's safe to say that given the talent on OKC and this being a nationally televised home game, we can expect to see max effort defensively from Miami. 

The UNDER is 5-1 in Oklahoma City's 6 games this season against strong defensive teams who are holding opponents to 43% or worse shooting, 6-0 in their 6 games against teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls/game and 5-1 in their last 6 against teams who average 53 or more rebounds. UNDER is 9-2 in Miami's 11 games this season against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots, 8-1 in their 9 against strong free throw shooting teams, making 76% or more of their attempts (don't foul often) and 6-2 in their 8 games against teams who average 99+ points/game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Warriors/Hornets UNDER

The books have been forced to set the totals high in every Warriors game, as Golden State has scored at least 100 points in every game. That might have you thinking the over is the smart play in this one, but I think we could see Golden State's streak of 100+ points come to an end tonight. 

Charlotte knows that they can't afford to get into a shootout with Golden State, especially with them missing one of their top scorers in Al Jefferson. The Hornets are going to do everything in their power to slow this game down and make the Warriors work for everything they get offensively. Charlotte has been locked in defensively in their last 2 games, holding the Cavaliers to 95 and the Bucks to just 82. They come in allowing just 97.1 ppg at home and are catching the Warriors in a good spot, playing their 2nd straight on the road and first trip to the east coast this season. 

UNDER is 28-13 in the Warriors last 41 off a road win and 6-2 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 11-2 in the Hornets last 13 when playing with 2 days of rest, 10-4 in their last 14 home games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Bucks OVER

Both of these teams come into this game off extremely low-scoring games. The Bucks combined for just 169 points in a 82-87 loss at Charlotte and Denver combined for only 173 in a 81-92 loss at Dallas. The key here is that both teams had an awful offensive quarter. Milwaukee scored just 9-points in the 2nd quarter against the Hornets and the Nuggets managed just 5 points in the 3rd quarter against the Mavericks. 

I believe the results have created some great value here as too much attention is being paid to the offenses and not what these two defenses are allowing. Denver is giving up 103.7 ppg and the Bucks are even worse at 105.0 ppg. Prior to their last game, Milwaukee had seen the OVER cash in 8 straight games. I just don't see the defensive intensity being there in this matchup, as the Nuggets are playing their 3rd in 4 nights and the Bucks are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. 

OVER is 12-5 in the Nuggets last 17 when playing against a team with a losing record, 7-1 in the Bucks last 8 off a SU loss, 5-2 in their last 7 when playing on no rest and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Take the OVER! 

3* Celtics/Magic NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on UNDER

I think we are seeing some great value here on the under with this total set over the 200 mark. Orlando has really played well defensively at home, where they are allowing just 94.0 ppg over their last 7. Boston also gets after it on the defensive end, as they are only giving up 96.9 ppg on the season. 

All 4 meetings last year saw a combined score of 201 or less, so these two have a history of low-scoring games. Another key here is that both team are coming in off a day of rest, so they should have plenty of energy to get back in transition.

UNDER is 22-8 in the Celtics last 30 off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 32-17 in the Magic's last 49 after playing 2 straight at home. We also find a strong system in play. The UNDER is 36-13 (74%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that covered the spread in their last game and playing 6 or more in 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Spurs UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle on Saturday between the Hawks and Spurs. Given the scheduling scenario we have here, neither of these teams are going to be looking to push the pace offensively. 

Atlanta is an absolutely brutal spot, playing their 4th game in 5 nights with this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. They also come in off a high-scoring game last night at Memphis in a 116-101 win. The Spurs are also playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. San Antonio has been really playing well defensively. They have held 4 straight opponents to 84 or less points are allowing just 84.9 ppg at home on the season. 

UNDER is 30-18 in the Spurs last 48 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 11-4 in their last 15 when playing on no rest. UNDER is 9-4 in the Hawks last 13 off a win and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on no rest. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Nuggets OVER

We are seeing some great value here with this total, as it's been set too low based on the last 3 games for San Antonio. The Spurs combined for just 174 against Memphis, 182 against Phoenix and 171 against Dallas in their last 3. Key thing there is all 3 came at home, where they have been much better on that side of the ball. San Antonio is giving up 96.9 ppg on the road, compared to 90.5 ppg overall. 

Denver has scored at least 97 in 5 straight and allowed 109 or more in each of their last 4. The Nuggets are giving up 105.3 ppg and surrendered 109 to the Spurs in San Antonio back on 11/18. That game finished with a combined score of 207, which is a good sign we will see a similar type scoring output now that these two teams are playing in Denver. 

Each of the last 4 games in the series has seen a combined score of at least 207. We also see that the OVER is 23-12 in the Nuggets last 35 when revenging a same season loss and 13-3 in their last 16 against strong defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage of 43% or worse. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Jazz/Clippers UNDER

The books have set the total too high for this matchup. Utah comes into this game averaging 94.6 ppg and are shooting just 43.1% from the field. Their only hope of winning games is to make them ugly and let their defense do most of the work. The Jazz are giving up just 93.8 ppg against teams who average 100.2. After allowing 100+ in each of their last 2, I look for Utah to come out extremely motivated defensively tonight. 

The Clippers are known for being a high-scoring attack, but are only averaging 103.6 ppg against teams that allow 102.0 ppg. LA put up 111 last night against the Nuggets, but in their two games prior they scored just 91 at Portland and 80 at home against the Raptors. Given the Clippers are playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 nights overall, this is not a spot where they are going to look to push the tempo. It's also worth noting they have been playing much better defensively of late. They held Toronto to just 91 points and the Nuggets to only 94. 

UNDER is 28-13 in the Clippers last 41 home games against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 against the Northwest. UNDER is also 6-0 in Utah's last 6 off a double-digit loss at home and 4-0 in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

3* Knicks/Heat NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

Both the Knicks and Heat come into this contest playing some of their best basketball of the early season. New York has won 4 straight and 6 of 8 overall, while Miami has won 5 of their last 6. I look for both teams to come out highly motivated for this game and I expect max effort here on the defensive side of the ball. 

Those that have watched the Heat play, know that this is a strong defensive team. Miami comes in allowing just 92.9 ppg (3rd). Opponents are shooting just 41.1% from the field and 30.8% from long-distance. The key here is we are catching Miami in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, so they won't be looking to push the pace. The Heat are also averaging just 97.7 ppg against teams that give up an average of 100.7. 

The Knicks are also coming into this one with tired legs. While New York had yesterday off, this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. New York is only giving up 979 ppg against teams that average 101.6 ppg and have held their opponents to 95 or less in 6 of their last 8. 

UNDER is 10-1 in Miami's last 11 and 8-3 in New York's last 11. UNDER is 31-19 in Miami's last 50 with a total set at 190 to 199.5 and 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win. UNDER is also 6-1-1 in Knicks last 8 when playing with 1 day of rest and 15-5-1 in their las t21 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Celtics/Nets UNDER

We are seeing some great value here with a high total in Sunday's showdown between the Nets and Celtics. These two teams just played Friday in Boston with the Celtics winning 120-95. The total for that game was an identical 204.5 and they eclipsed it by just 10.5 points with Boston shooting a ridiculous 58.6% from the field. 

I look for a much stronger effort from the Nets in the quick rematch. They actually only had one bad stretch against Boston on Friday, where they allowed 43 points in the 2nd quarter. Brooklyn also realizes they can't get into a track meet with the Celtics, so expect them to try and keep the tempo down in this one. 

UNDER is 20-6 in the Nets last 26 after allowing 100+ in 2 straight games and 22-9 in their last 31 off a road loss. UNDER is also 45-19 in Boston's last 64 after leading by 20 or more at the half of their previous game and 23-9 in their last 32 off a 20+ point over a division opponent. Take the UNDER! 

5* Cavs/Pistons NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER 

I look for the Cavaliers and Pistons to have no problem eclipsing the total set for this one. Cleveland comes in averaging 102.8 ppg and are catching the Pistons in a tough spot. Detroit has had just 1-day off after concluding a lengthy 6-game west coast road trip.

The Cavaliers come in on 2 full days of rest and will be able to push the tempo and take advantage of the tired legs of the Pistons. It's also important to note we catch Cleveland coming off a loss, so we know they will be highly motivated to bounce back with a win. 

The key here is I loo for Detroit to keep pace offensively at home. Cleveland has allowed at least 97 points in 4 of their last 5 and Detroit is averaging a respectable 96.6 ppg. It's also worth noting that each of the final 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 195 or more. 

OVER is 19-8 in the Pistons last 27 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, 26-12 in their last 38 as a home dog and 11-2 in their last 13 home games off a road loss by 10 or more points. OVER is 39-17-1 in Cleveland's las 57 when playing with 2 days of rest and 4-1 in last 5 off a game where they failed to cover. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Situational Total Dominator on Pistons/Lakers UNDER

I'm not expecting much fireworks offensively tonight with the Pistons and Lakers. Detroit has scored 96 or less in each of their last 3 games, while LA has scored 99 or less in 4 straight. With the Pistons having lost 3 straight and the Lakers on a 4-game slide, both should bring some intensity not the defensive end to snap their respective losing streaks.

Key here is that neither of these teams will be looking to push the tempo. Detroit is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and their 6th and final game of a lengthy 6-game west coast trip. The Lakers had yesterday off, but are returning home from a 5-game road trip. This will be LA's 4th game in 6 nights. 

These two teams also have a history of not lighting up the scoreboard when they face off against each other. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. We also see that the UNDER is 10-4 in Pistons last 14 against the Western Conference and 11-4 in their last 15 road games against a team with a losing home record. UNDER is 8-1-1 in Lakers last 10 home games off a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 in their last 4 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Hawks/Celtics OVER

I'm expecting a frantic pace in tonight's game against the Hawks and Celtics. Boston comes in averaging 101.1 ppg on 87 shots per game, while Atlanta is scoring 104.4 ppg on 84 shots. The Hawks have scored at least 101 points in each of their last 5 games and the Celtics are allowing 100.6 ppg at home. 

OVER is 10-1 in the Hawks last 11 after playing 3 straight games at home and the average combined score in these games has been 209.3. OVER is also 15-5 in the Hawks last 20 road games against teams who are shooting 43% or worse from the field and 13-2 in their last 15 road games against teams that average 53 or more rebounds/game. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 46-12 (79%) over the last 5 seasons in games with two up-tempo teams that average 82 or more shots/game, who both also struggle to rebound the ball (-3 to -5.5 rebounds/game). Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Kings UNDER

Each of the last 4 meetings between these two teams has finished UNDER the total and given the circumstances I believe that streak continues tonight. Detroit is one of the most improved teams in the league and will be motivated coming off a loss at Golden State last time out. However, I don't see the Pistons playing at a fast pace. Detroit is playing their 4th straight on the road in their West Coast trip and 3rd in the last 4 nights overall. 

Betting the UNDER with the Kings might not seem like a wise move, given Sacramento is allowing 110.6 ppg and opposing teams are shooting 49.3% from the field. The key here is the Kings held a players only meeting on Tuesday, which I believe is going to result in max effort here defensively, as they try to put an end to a 6-game losing streak on their home floor. 

One thing to keep in mind with Sacramento's poor defensive start, is 6 of their first 8 games have come against some strong offensive teams in the Clippers (twice), Suns, Rockets, Warriors and Spurs. Their 8 opponents as a whole combine to average 103.5 ppg. Detroit is only scoring 99.0 ppg and shooting just 42.7% from the field. 

UNDER is 5-1 in the Kings last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 13-4 in the Pistons last 17 road games after playing their previous game as a road dog, 23-10 in their last 33 against the Western Conference and 10-4 in their last 14 road games against a team with a losing home record. 

We also find a strong system in play, as the UNDER is 50-21 (70%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team that has covered at least 4 of their last 6, playing their 4th road game in 7 days and a total set at 200 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Heat UNDER 

I'm expecting both teams to come out a bit sluggish on offense here and a big reason for that is the energy that I look for both teams to bring to the defensive end. Toronto will be motivated off a 87-92 loss at Orlando on Friday, which was their first loss of the season. Miami will also be looking to bounce back, as they fell 87-90 at Indiana on Friday. 

Both of these teams have really been good on the defensive end this year. The Raptors are allowing just 95.0 ppg against teams that are averaging 101.5 ppg, while the Heat are giving up only 92.8 ppg against teams that are averaging 100.6. A big reason why the UNDER is 4-2 in Toronto's 6 games and 5-1 in Miami's 6 contests. 

UNDER is 34-14 in the Heat's last 48 games against teams scoring 99 or more points/game and 9-1 in their last 10 versus teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3 or more boards per game. UNDER is also 10-2 in Miami's last 12 games played on Sunday. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Pelicans UNDER

This total has been set too high for this matchup. Both the Magic and Pelicans have started the season 0-3, which is going to have both teams coming out extremely motivated to get their first win of the season. I believe that will lead to max effort here defensively and that should keep this well under the mark given the two offenses that are taking the floor. 

Orlando comes into this game averaging 103.3 ppg, but that's a bit misleading as the only time they scored more than 87 points in a game is their 136-139 double-overtime game against Oklahoma City. They only had 117 in regulation, so if you take out overtime, they are only averaging 97.0 ppg. 

The Pelicans are averaging 103.0 ppg, but they too have really only had one strong offensive outburst, as they scored 95 and 94 in their first two games, before scoring 120 against the Warriors. New Orleans is only shooting 42.7% from the field and Orlando is even worse at 40.2% and also one of the worst 3-point shooting teams at 29.3%. 

In the two meetings between these teams last year, they combined for 185 and 179 points with the highest total being 192.5. Given their current form and the injuries the Pelicans are dealing with, I look for these two to fly under the total set here. 

UNDER is 21-9 in Orlando's last 30 road games with a total greater than 200 over the last 3 seasons, 22-8 in their last 30 road games following 3 or more consecutive losses and 23-7 in their last 30 road games against an opponent from the Western Conference. UNDER is also 8-2 in Pelicans last 10 following a loss and 11-5 in their last 16 vs a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Mavs/Suns UNDER

The books have set this total too high for this Western Conference matchup. Both the Mavericks and Suns underwent some major changes in the offseason. Dallas doesn't look to be as strong offensively, at least in the early going, while Phoenix looks to be a little stronger defensively. 

Dallas parted ways with Tyson Chandler, Monta Ellis and Richard Jefferson, while bringing in Deron Williams, Wes Matthews, Zaza Pachouli, Samuel Dalembert and Javale McGee. There's definitely going to be some chemistry issues early on, as Williams and Matthews barely played in the preseason and neither is 100% healthy. The Mavericks are also without Chandler Parsons, as he recovers from knee surgery and will miss the playmaking ability of Ellis until these guys get healthy. 

Phoenix added in Chandler from Dallas to help improve their interior defense and he will certainly do that. They still have a strong backcourt of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, but the overall depth isn't as strong as it's been. With players not in game shape to start the season, I don't see the Suns exploding offensively here. The Mavericks also figure to slow the pace way down given what they have to work with this season and both teams should play hard defensively in the season opener. 

To close out last season the Suns saw the UNDER go 19-7-1 in their final 27 home games and 19-7 in their last 26 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on 76ers/Celtics UNDER

The defensive intensity will be there for both teams in the season opener and there's a little bit more of an edge on that side of the ball in division games. You also have to factor in there's some rust to work off early in the season, as well as players needing to get into game shape. 

Philadelphia could find it extremely difficult to score, as they are missing some key pieces because of injury. The 76ers will be without Tony Wroten, Robert Covington, Carl Landry, Nik Stauskas and Kendall Marshall. There's a good chance this turns into a blowout and that's almost always a good sign for the under.

Boston won't be looking to run up the score with big home game against reigning Atlantic champ Toronto on Friday. The Celtics are also adjusting to a couple new pieces in David Lee and Amir Johnson. This is also a well-coached team that's going to get after it defensively. 

Over the last 3 seasons the UNDER is 41-26 in 76ers games when they are listed as an underdog of 10 or more points. They also closed out last season going UNDER the total in 11 of their last 15 division games. 

We also find a strong system in play. UNDER is 112-60 (65%) since 1996 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where you have a marginal losing team from last season that won 40%-49% of their games (Celtics) playing a team who had a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

5* Warriors/Rockets Vegas Insider on Over 213

With the Houston Rockets looking to avoid being swept by the Golden State Warriors on Monday the best value on the board comes on the total. Three straight games have gone under in this series, including Game 3, which went WAY under the number. This has predictably caused the line to be adjusted down significantly for Game 4.

The series started in Golden State with a total of 220 points and has been adjusted all the way down to 214 following some lower scores in Games 2 and 3. Game 3 was a complete fluke with Houston shooting as bad as they possibly could hitting 33.7% from the field. This is a Rockets team that has shot 44.7% from the field and averaged 108 points per game throughout the playoffs.

The Warriors have played pretty good defense throughout the playoffs allowing opponents to shoot 42.7% from the field, but that's a far cry from what we saw the other night in Houston. Offensively Golden State's numbers speak for themselves. Almost no opponent has been able to figure them out. They are averaging just over 109 points per game this season, including almost 107 points per game on the road. With oddsmakers over-adjusting, we'll jump on this total. Take the Over!

5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on UNDER

These two teams combined for just 185 points in Game 1 and I just don't see this being a high-scoring series given the form that both of these two are in. Cleveland is playing without Love and Irving is hobbled and potentially might sit this one out. The Hawks are more than likely without Carroll and even if he does play he will be at less than 100%.

The Hawks defense forced the Cavaliers into a lot of isolation sets, which slows their offense way down. Had it not been for J.R. Smith being on fire, Cleveland likely wouldn't have struggled to reach 90 points. Smith is extremely inconsistent and chances are he won't have near the same impact in Game 2.

UNDER is 10-2 in the Hawks last 12 games when revenging a home loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when coming off a home loss. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Cavaliers last 10 after allowing 90 points or less in 2 straight games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 90% (26-3) system. Take the UNDER 197!

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Wizards UNDER

These two teams combined for just 163 points in Game 5 at Atlanta and I look for the strong defensive efforts to carry over to Game 6. Keep in mind that the these two teams only combined for 87 points in the 2nd half of Game 4.

It's not a surprise that the defenses are starting to win over the offenses, as these two teams are now extremely familiar with how far we are into the series. Atlanta's offense hasn't looked right for awhile and the Wizards matchup extremely well. On the flip side of this, I actually think the return of Wall hurts the offensive chemistry that Washington had built up.

UNDER is 12-1 in Atlanta's last 13 playoff games when they have an opportunity to close out the series, giving us a strong 92% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER!

4* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER

Each of the first three games in this series have failed to surpass 188 points, yet the books continue to post a total around 196-198 points. It shouldn't come as a huge surprise that these two teams aren't putting up a ton of points. The Warriors led the league in defensive efficiency and the Grizzlies were 4th.

The home team typically is the one that dictates the tempo and Memphis clearly wants to slow this game down and not let the Warriors get into any sort of rhythm offensively. The Grizzlies are doing an excellent job of defending the 3-point line and a lot of that has to do with the perimeter defense of Conley and Allen.

I'm expecting all out defensive effort here from both teams, as I think both teams are aware that this game could very well decide the series. UNDER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games off an upset win as an underdog, 23-3 in their last 26 home games and 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA Playoffs No Brainer on UNDER

While the first two games in this series have finished with a final combined score of 187 points, the total hasn't really moved due to the public liking to back the OVER in Golden State games. I just don't see this turning into an offensive shootout.

Memphis is one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially on their home floor. Conley and Allen are more than capable of slowing down Curry and Thompson and that really makes it difficult for the Warriors to get into a rhythm offensively. Golden State is equally as strong defensively and I think they turn their focus to that side of the ball in Game 3 on the road. Memphis is looking to slow the game way down and aren't a great outside shooting team.

UNDER is 15-6 in the Grizzlies last 21 home games after going under the total in their previous game and 9-1 in their last 10 off an upset win as a road underdog. UNDER is also 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!

5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER

The most recent matchup between these two teams came towards the end of the regular season (4/5) and there was a decent amount at stake with Cleveland not having safely secured the No. 2 seed. The total posted for that game was an identical 194.5 and the two teams ended up combining for 193.

With how big a series this is and the intensity that comes with the playoffs, I think we are seeing a ton of value on the UNDER. The biggest key here is that Cleveland has lost Kevin Love and J.R. Smith is suspended for the first two games.

Both of those guys do a tremendous job of spacing the defense, not having them on the floor is going to allow the Bulls to collapse inside and take away the driving lanes for James and Irving. In that last contest back in early April, Love had 11 points (3 3-pointers) and Smith had 24 (8 3-pointers).

I think there's a good chance that both teams fail to score more than 90 points. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bulls last 5 games playing with 3 or more days of rest, 18-6 in their last 24 road games against a team with a winning home record and 20-8 in the Cavs last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record. These trends combine to form a 75% (42-14) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Grizzlies/Warriors  NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER

The last time these two teams faced off in the regular season the total was set at just 196.5 points. That alone shows you the value we are getting here, as the defensive intensity will be taken to a whole different level.

A lot of people think the Warriors are all flash on offense, but that's not the case at all. Golden State led the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis to no surprise also ranked inside the Top 5 in that category.

Grizzlies know they keep up with the Warriors in a shootout and Golden State understands that Memphis has little to no chance of beating them at home if they match the Grizzlies intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Steph Curry backed up this point, saying, "Our defense is going to show up. That's what we're going to bank on for the whole series."

UNDER is 68-24 in games with a total set between 190 and 199.5 points, where you have a well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days (Warriors), on Sunday. That's a 74% long-term system. BET THE UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets/Hawks UNDER

I believe we are seeing a major overreaction here from the books due to Game 4's high-scoring affair that saw the Hawks/Nets combine for 235 points. Only 208 of those game in regulation, as the two combined for 27 in overtime.

Each of the first 3 games in the series finished with 191 or less, including a mere 174 in Game 3. Defense has the edge as these series progress, which is why I'm not expecting to see a repeat of the strong shooting percentages from Game 4, where Atlanta hit 48.4% from the field and Brooklyn 47.9%. Keep in mind that even with both teams red-hot, they only went over the posted total for Game 5 by a mere 8-points in regulation.

UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots and 12-3 in their last 15 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. UNDER is also 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in their last 5 following a game where they failed to cover. These trends add up to form a strong 82% (32-7) system. Take the UNDER!