3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Pacers UNDER

No analysis on late plays

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Sixers UNDER

I expect a highly competitive game on Monday when the Rockets host the 76ers in Houston. While Philadelphia is just 2-4 on the season, their 4 losses have come against the Wizards, Celtics, Raptors and these same Rockets. That defeat to Houston came last Wednesday, where the 76ers lost on a last second shot. 

Those two combined for just 209 points and that was with a huge 64 point 1st quarter. After that neither team scored more than 26 in a single quarter and I look for defense to again be the story with the familiarity these two teams now have with each other. Both teams could also be missing some key scorers. Philadelphia's J.J. Redick is questionable with a back injury and Houston, who is already without Chris Paul, could be minus Eric Gordon, who is also questionable. 

Houston is considered a great OVER team, but that's just not been the case this season. They went OVER the total in their opener at Golden State, but have since went UNDER in 6 straight games and it's just as much their offense not producing at the same level as it is their improved play defensively. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Heat UNDER 

The books have set the bar to high for Monday's matchup between the Timberwolves and Heat. Minnesota is coming off a huge 119-116 home win over the Thunder and the OVER is 5-0-1 in their 6 games this season. I believe that has this total number a bit higher than it should be.

It's only a matter of time before Thibodeau gets the Timberwolves playing better on the defensive side of the ball and I expect a big effort here coming off 2 days of rest. I also think we get a strong  effort here from Miami at home, as they will be trying to avoid a third straight loss. 

UNDER is 13-2 in the Wolves last 15 road games after a contest in which they covered the spread and 10-0 in their last 10 road games off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog. 

We also have a great system in play here backing a low-scoring game. UNDER is 32-8 (80%) going back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more and a game featuring a well-rested team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, who had a losing record the year before. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Situational HEAVY HITTER on Magic UNDER

The Magic have been impressive on the offensive side of the ball as they are scoring 118 ppg early. I think that has this total a little too high for this division showdown on the road against a hungry Hornets team that is looking to bounce back from a ugly home loss to the Rockets on Friday. Even after allowing 109 at home to Houston, Charlotte is giving up just 97.7 ppg at home on the season. 

I think their defense gives Orlando trouble here, plus I think we could see a flat Magic team taking the floor, as they have won 3 straight and are fresh off a blowout win over the Spurs. Both meetings in Charlotte last year finished with fewer than 203 points and the Magic scored just 81 and 88 in the two games. 

UNDER is 30-15 in the Hornets last 45 home games after going under the total in their previous game and 17-3 in their last 20 home games against a division opponent! Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Afternoon Total DESTROYER on Bucks UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Sunday's afternoon showdown between the Bucks and Hawks. The only two teams to score more than 100 points on Milwaukee this season are the Cavaliers and Blazers, who have some big time offensive weapons. Atlanta doesn't even have one top tier player on their roster and are scoring just 98.5 ppg. The only time the Hawks have eclipsed 100 points is games against bottom feeders Dallas and Brooklyn. 

While Atlanta is struggling to put the ball in the basket, they are playing respectable on defense. Milwaukee also isn't a great offensive team, as they just don't have a lot of shooting. Bucks are only putting up 102 ppg. I think we see both offenses fail to reach the century mark in this one. 

UNDER is 20-6-1 in the Bucks last 27 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ in their previous game. UNDER is also 22-8-2 in the Hawks last 32 after they allowed 100+ in their previous game and 22-9 in their last 31 after playing a non-conference game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Late Night BAILOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Pistons UNDER

I like the value here with UNDER quite a bit in Saturday's late night action between the Pistons and Clippers. Los Angeles just allowed 100 points for the first time this season, as they gave up 103 points to the Blazers. The Clippers are still giving up just 91.7 ppg and that number drops to just 86 ppg at home. 

Detroit is a team they can lock down on and keep from putting up a big number. The Pistons have benefited from playing a soft schedule when it comes to the defenses they have faced. In fact, they are averaging just 106 ppg against teams that on average give up 107 ppg. Detroit is also not bad defensively, as they are allowing just 102 ppg and the Clippers aren't as dynamic offensively without Chris Paul running the point. 

The Pistons scored 122 in their last game, but that's actually a good thing for us, as the UNDER is 25-11 in Detroit's last 36 after a game where they scored 120 or more points. UNDER is also 5-1 in their last 6 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 when they are playing a team that scored 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Sixers OVER 

I think we get a much higher scoring game than the books are expecting on Saturday when the Mavericks host the 76ers. Both of these teams are struggling on the defensive side of the ball. Philadelphia is giving up 111.3 ppg on the road and the Mavericks are allowing 109.2 ppg at home. 

Dallas has held 3 of their 6 opponents under 100 points, but that's a bit misleading. Two of those came against the Grizzlies, who aren't a team built to score a ton and the other was against the Kings. They allowed 117 to the Hawks, 133 to the Warriors and 107 to the Rockets. The 76ers' defensive numbers are a bit skewed from one game where they held the Pistons to just 86 points. They have allowed 100+ in every other game. 

I look for both teams to eclipse the 100 point mark in this one and this one finishing closer to 220 than 205. OVER is 11-1 in the 76ers last 12 road games off a home loss and 7-3-1 in the Mavs last 11 games off a loss. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action between the Rockets and Grizzlies. Houston is a team the public looks to play the OVER on because of how great they were offensively last year, but the Rockets offense hasn't been producing like it had a season ago. The Rockets scored 122 in their opener against Golden State, but haven't scored more than 107 in each of their 4 games since. They are also playing much better on defense, giving up just 102 ppg. 

Memphis is an ideal UNDER team, as they like to play a more grind it out style, where they work for good shots on offense and lock down defensively. The Grizzlies are scoring just 100.4 ppg and giving up 95.2 ppg. 

Another key factor here is these two teams just played a little over a week ago and the game finished with 188 points. I think we see a very similar outcome in this one. UNDER is 15-4 in the Rockets last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3 and 20-9 in the Grizzlies last 29 games when listed as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs UNDER

I think we are getting some good value here with the total in Friday's non-conference matchup between the Spurs and Magic. Orlando has been an offensive juggernaut thru 4 games, averaging 119 ppg. I just don't think the talent is there for them to sustain that production and it's aided by an easy early schedule, which includes 2 games against the Nets. 

The Spurs are an elite team and off to a 4-0 start. Believe it or not they have never started 5-0 in their franchises history. Not that they need any motivation, this team shows up to work no matter who they are missing or who the opponent is. Their strong start has a lot to do with their defense, which is only giving up 93.2 ppg. I'm willing to bet the Spurs dictate the tempo here and this total stays under 200 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under HEAVY HITTER on Bulls OVER

I like the value here with the total and tonight's game between the Bulls and Hawks going over the low mark set by the books. Both of these teams are in the early stages of rebuilding their roster and are also adjusting to a lot of new pieces. No surprise that defense has been an issue for both of these teams. Chicago is giving up 107.7 ppg and the Hawks are allowing 110.0 ppg. 

Offensively both of these teams are going to be challenged when facing the top tier of the league, but they are more than capable of putting up a big number against the other bottom feeders and that's exactly what I expect to see here. Atlanta had 117 against the Mavs and 104 vs the Nets. Chicago hasn't even got a crack at bad team, having played the Raptors, Spurs and Cavs, but did just score 112 at Cleveland. 

OVER is 8-2 in Atlanta's last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 5-2 in the Bulls last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total NO BRAINER on Lakers UNDER

I like the value here with the total in Wednesday's late night action that has the Wizards visiting the Lakers. Washington's backcourt duo of Wall and Beal are going to take this one personal against the Lakers. They are going to come in looking to shut down Lonzo Ball. I look for their effort defensively on Ball to take him completely out of his game, much like we saw in the Lakers opener when Patrick Beverly made it personal guarding Ball and LA managed just 92 points on 41% shooting. 

Washington's offense can get up and down the floor, but they aren't as efficient on the road. After scoring 120 against the 76ers and 115 against the Pistons at home, they managed just 109 at Denver. Not that 110 is bad, but we are talking about a total of 230+ points. Add in this being a nationally televised game on ESPN and I think the effort will be there on the defensive side of the ball for both teams. 

We got a great system in play here. UNDER is 26-6 (81%) since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more with a team that had a losing record the previous season and is playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Best Bet 'VEGAS INSIDER'  on Mavs UNDER 

The Grizzlies are come in allowing just 94.0 ppg and that's really impressive when you consider they have faced both the Warriors and Rockets. Memphis held Golden State's high-powered attack to just 101 points and two days later held Houston to a mere 90 points. Clearly the Grizzlies are locked in on the defensive side of the ball and I see no reason why they won't shut down a Dallas offense that is as limited as they come. 

In fact, the Mavericks are so limited they are trying to slow the game down and grind out each possession just to be competitive. That's going to make it hard for either team to eclipse the 100 point mark and I wouldn't be shocked if this one finished closer to 180 points. Keep in mind they played a game last year towards the beginning of the season where they combined for a whopping 144 points. 

UNDER is 25-9 in the Grizzlies last 34 road games off a win over a division rival and 22-7-1 in the Mavericks last 30 games after they scored 100 or more point sin their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR On Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the total and this one staying UNDER the mark set by the books. Houston hasn't looked like the offensive juggernaut from last year and could find it hard to get going against a stingy 76ers defense that has held it's 4 opponents to just 42.8% shooting. A impressive feat given they have played the Wizards, Celtics, Raptors and Pistons, with 3 of the 4 on the road. 

The other key here is that Philadelphia isn't a great offensive team. They are only shooting 42.3% from the field and scoring a mere 99.5 ppg. While the offense is still trying to finds it's rhythm, Houston's defense has played really well. They gave up 121 to the Warriors in Golden State, but have held all 3 opponents since that game to 100 or fewer. 

This has also been a very profitable spot to back the UNDER in Rockets' games. The UNDER is 14-4 in Houston's last 18 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER

The books have set the bar way too high for tonight's Western Conference clash between the Blazers and Pelicans. Portland will finally get to play a game at home after opening the season with 3 straight on the road and have had a full two days off to get back their legs. I expect a big time defensive effort here by a very underrated Blazers team.

They should be able to keep the Pelicans in check, as there's not a lot you have to worry about outside of the two bigs in Cousins and Davis. Prior to giving up 113 to Milwaukee the Blazers held the Pacers to 96 and the Suns to a mere 76. I think this one ends up closer to 210 than 220. 

UNDER is 15-4 in the Pelicans last 19 road games after they scored 110 or more points in each of their previous two games and 13-3 in their last 16 road games after covering the spread in 2 straight. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wolves OVER

The Pacers have allowed 112 or more points in each of their first 3 games and I look for that trend to continue here against the Timberwolves, who after struggling to get going offensively against two of the better defensive teams in the Jazz and Spurs, exploded for 115 points in a win at OKC. I think we could see Minnesota go off for 120+ here, which means we just need Indiana to reach 100 points to have an excellent shot at this going over the mark set here by the books. 

Indiana will be without one of their better players in Myles Turner, but there's a lot more talent on this Pacers roster than people think. OVER is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 road games and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 on the road against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 8-2 in the Timberwolves last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

Chicago was going to feature one of the worst rosters in the league when they were healthy and they are without at least 3 starters and 4 of their best players with Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis all sidelined with injury or suspension. Last time out the Bulls managed just 77 points on 38% shooting and it's going to be an offensive struggle until they start getting some of those guys back. 

Cleveland isn't going to cut them any slack, as the Cavs come into this one off an embarrassing 21-point home loss to the Magic. Prior to that they held both the Celtics and Bucks under 100 points and should keep Chicago well below the century mark. Cavs are still trying to find themselves offensively and missing a key piece with point guard Derrick Rose sidelined with an ankle injury. At the same time, Cleveland could score 120 points and this could still go UNDER this high total. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total NO BRAINER on Kings UNDER

This total might seem like it's way to low given the Suns have allowed 124 or more points in each of their first 3 games, twice allowing 130+. The most recent was a 88-130 defeat to the Clippers, which cost head coach Earl Watson his job just 3 games into the season. That's on the players and their lack of effort. I expect them to come out and given it all they got at home in this one. 

The Kings on the other hand are a team that has played in some really low-scoring games to start the year. They held the Rockets to 105 points in a game that had just 205 points with a total of 216.5. They then combined for 181 at Dallas with a total of 202 and 175 at Denver with a total of 212.5. Sacramento has held all 3 of their opponents under 44% shooting and now face a Suns team that has failed to score 90 in 2 of their 3 games. Key here is the Kings don't play at a frantic pace and aren't a great offensive team. Sacramento is averaging just 90.7 ppg.  Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets OVER

Houston has went UNDER the total in each of their last two games, both games finishing with 205 or less. I think that has the total way too low for tonight's showdown against the Grizzlies. The Rockets only shot 39.8% from the field against at Sacramento on no rest after the big win at Golden State and still managed 105 points. They finished with 107 in their next game at home against the Mavs, but it would have been a lot more if the game wasn't a blowout. Houston had 92 points thru 3 quarters. 

Memphis is a good defensive team, but I don't see them being able to keep the Rockets offense in check with this game being played in Houston. Key here is the Grizzlies are in good form offensively to start the year, averaging 107.0 ppg. I think both teams easily eclipse the century mark and this one finishes closer to 225. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Bucks UNDER

This might seem like a low total given the Bucks are giving up 108.7 ppg, but that's more of who Milwaukee has played. They opened the season at Boston before hosting the Cavs and Blazers. They held both the Celtics and Blazers UNDE 43% shooting and should be able to do it here against a Hornets team that is only hitting 41.5% from the field in two games against the Pistons and Hawks. 

Charlotte is playing a much slower-paced game with the focus on defense and the offense running through big man Dwight Howard. I look for both of these teams to struggle to get in any kind of rhythm offensively and don't think either side will be able to reach the 100 point mark in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* LATE INFO INSIDER on Lakers OVER

No Analysis on late releases

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER  on Hawks OVER

The fact that Atlanta scored just 91 in their last game at Charlotte has this total lower than it should be. Brooklyn has decided that defense isn't something they are all that interested in playing and I don't see it changing here. The Nets gave up 140 at Indiana in their opener and 121 last time out at home against the Magic.

Each of their first two games have had a combined score of at least 147 points. They also let both of those teams shoot better than 50% from the field, which speaks volumes to their effort on that side of the ball. The Hawks scored 117 at Dallas in their opener and I think they easily hit that mark, which should be more than enough to push this one over the number set by the books. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER

The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between the Blazers and Bucks. Portland's defense has been exceptional to start the year. The Blazers held the Suns to just 76 points in their opener and that same Phoenix team score 130 the next night. They followed it up by holding the Pacers to just 96 and Indiana had scored 140 in their previous game.

Bucks are talented young team with a great player in Antetokounmpo, but aren't a great 3-point shooting team and are strong defensively. Exactly what you look for when you want a low-scoring game. I also think the tempo of this game won't be up to normal pace with both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. For Portland it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and Milwaukee just put it all on the line last night against the LeBron and the Cavs at home. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Blazers). Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls UNDER

I just don't see these two teams playing a very high-scoring game here tonight. San Antonio is without their best offensive weapon and MVP candidate in Kawhi Leonard, as well as starting PG Tony Parker. Chicago has half their roster either hurt or suspended and even at full strength the Bulls were going to feature one of the weakest rosters in the NBA, as they are in the very early stages of a major rebuilding phase. 

San Antonio is one of the most efficient defenses in the league just about every year and were spot in their opener, holding the T-Wolves to just 99 points on 43.5% shooting. Chicago only connected on 41.6% of their attempts at Toronto and I think they are going to find it really hard to put the ball in the basket tonight. Key here is we should get enough effort out of the Bulls defensively to keep this from going over. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Spurs). Take the UNDER!

5* 76ers/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors OVER 

I look for these two teams to fly OVER the total set here by the books. Philadelphia scored just 92 in the loss at home to Boston last night and are going to be without one of their best defenders in Embiid, who isn't playing back-to-backs just yet. I think the entire 76ers team struggles on defense being on the road with no rest against a potent Toronto offense that needed just 83 shots to score 117 in their opener.

The Raptors did allow a Bulls team that was missing half their roster to score 100, so we can expect Ben Simmons and company to at least hit that mark. Keep in mind that Philadelphia had 115 in their opener at Washington. 

OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and 6-2 in the last 8 times they have played in Toronto. OVER was 14-6 in 76ers last 20 games last year when playing on no rest and 7-0 in Toronto's last 7 home games when playing against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/UNDER Total DOMINATOR on Jazz UNDER

The Timberwolves should be one of the more improved defensive teams this season. They added in Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Jeff Teague to pair with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is a defensive first guy and after not playing well on that side of the ball against the Spurs in the opener, I expect a strong showing at home against the Jazz. 

Utah is also the ideal teal for a team to go up against when you want to a low-scoring affair. The Jazz don't play at a frantic pace and are very strong defensively with the best rim protector in the game in Gobert. They allowed the fewest points in the league last year, giving up just 96.8 ppg and were on point in their opener, allowing just 96 to a very good Denver team that wants to get up and down the floor. 

UNDER is 21-9 in the T-Wolves last 30 games against a division opponent and 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games against the Jazz. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets OVER

Defense is clearly not a priority for the Nets. Brooklyn ranked 2nd to last in points allowed last year at 112.5 ppg and started out the 2017 season by giving up 140 to a Pacers team that lost their best scorer in Paul George. The big difference is that the Nets now have some offensive fire-power to stay with teams. They scored 131 against the Pacers and even with the loss of Lin, should continue to score at a high rate. 

Orlando put up 116 in their opener against the Heat, while giving up 109 and that was with Miami shooting just 43% from the field. Both these teams want to push the pace and play in the open court, which should have us flying over the mark set by the books. 

History is also on our side here. The OVER is hitting at a 61% clip since 1996 when you have a team off a combined score of 225 or more against a team off a combined score of 235 or more. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons OVER

Washington combined for 235 points with the 76ers in their home opener and I see another high-scoring game against Detroit at home tonight. The Wizards are down starting power forward Markieff Morris and may also be without his backup in Jason smith, who left the last game with a shoulder injury. They don't have a lot of other options outside of moving Kelly Oubre Jr. into the 4, which becomes a much more uptempo offense in their version of 'small ball' 

Detroit held the Hornets to just 90 points in their opener, but Charlotte was down 3 key players in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nicolas Batum and Michael-Carter Williams. While that aided their defense, the Pistons offense was sharp, connecting on 43% from the field. They are more than capable of running with the Wizards. Both teams should easily get to 100 points and have this finishing closer to 220. Take the OVER! 

5* Knicks/Thunder NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder/Knicks UNDER

This is just too many points for this matchup. I believe we are seeing a high total here because of the fact that the Thunder now have 3 superstars in Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. As good as those 3 are, it's going to take some time for these guys to form a chemistry on offense. George and Anthony are accustomed to being "the guy," but will have to learn to take a back seat to Westbrook. 

I think it takes as much as the first 20 games before this team really gels. The other thing is the depth isn't what it use to be. The Thunder are going struggle to get a whole lot out of their bench. 

There's also a decent chance the starters don't play the entire game here, as the Knicks have the makings of one of the worst teams in the league. New York just doesn't have the offensive fire-power and in today's game where everyone is lighting up the scoreboard, they didn't even average 100 ppg in the preseason when no one is playing defense. I don't see the offense doing much here on the road in what's going to be electric atmosphere inside Chesapeake Energy Arena. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Wizards OVER

I think we are going to see a ton off offense and very little defense in the first of ESPN's double-header on Wednesday. The Wizards were 5th in the league last year at 109.2 ppg and should be every bit as explosive with their core back. Washington's defense wasn't great, giving up 107.4 ppg and I look for them to have their hands full against what many believe will be one of the most improved teams in the league. 

The 76ers not only have a healthy Embiid, but they get last year's No. 1 pick Ben Simmons after he didn't play at all last season, plus add in this year's No. 1 pick in Markelle Fultz. Not to mention a sneaky good free agent signing in sharpshooter J.J. Redick from the Clippers. When healthy, this is one of the deeper teams in the league and I expect them to look to push the pace with Simmons and Fultz.

While they could develop into a decent defensive team, that's going to take some time and probably won't be for a season or two, as they are so young and don't have a lot of chemistry together. Both teams should score well over a 100 points in this one. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Pistons UNDER

Both the Pistons and Hornets figure to be in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and I think both teams are going to rely heavily on the defense this season. Charlotte went out an added Dwight Howard, who needs the game to be played at a slow pace to be a serious factor. The projected starting 5 lacks scoring outside of point guard Kemba Walker. 

Detroit's not much different, as they are built around big man Andre Drummond. The Pistons also added one of the premier perimeter defenders in Avery Bradley, who I'm sure will be matched up with Walker. Detroit ranked 26th in scoring last year and I don't see any reason to expect them to be much better. Both were Top 15 in scoring defense and while today's NBA features a lot more high-scoring games, I think we see a defensive battle here in the opener, which is also the first game in Detroit's new arena. Take the UNDER! 

3* Rockets/Warriors Opening Night TOTAL DESTROYER on Warriors UNDER

I like the value here with the massive total for Tuesday's opener between the Warriors and Rockets. These two teams were offensive juggernauts last year, but I just don't see this being a shootout. While the Warriors have basically the same team back from last year, Houston has added a huge new piece to the puzzle in point guard Chris Paul. 

The addition of Paul should make the Rockets a better team, but I think it's going to take some time for this team to find their chemistry. Last year James Harden dominated the ball and the offense ran completely through him. Paul is a similar type of player, who is at his best when the ball is in his hands. It's going to take some time for them to figure it out. 

Golden State's offense will be tough to stop, but this Houston team is as talented and deep as you will find and we can bank on the Rockets giving everything they have here against the defending champs and favorites to win it all this year. As for the Warriors, I think there's enough distractions here with the ring ceremony that we see a them come out less than 100% focused. Houston also added a couple of defensive minded players in P.J. Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who give them a better shot at slowing down Durant, plus you now have Paul guarding Curry. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on OVER

After a relatlvely low-scoring Game 1, I think we are seeing some decent value here on the total and it going over the mark in Game 2. Keep in mind the total was as high as 227 in Game 1. Golden State scored 113 and it could have been a lot more had they not missed so many easy shots around the rim. The real killer to the total in Game 1 was the Cavs inability to get their offense going, as well as they just shot the ball bad. Cleveland shot just 34.9% from the field. What people overlook is the Warriors also didn't have a great shooting performance, as they hit only 42.5%. Their worst mark from the field since a regular season meeting against the 76ers back on March 14. The lopsided score also aided a lower scoring Game 1, though I think we could see another blowout and this game still fly over the mark. Take the OVER!

4* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 Annihilator on OVER

Each of the first two games have flirted right on the number with Game 1 just squeaking OVER and Game 2 staying UNDER. Both games we got next to nothing from Boston's offense and still almost hit our mark. I know this series is all but over, but I don't expect the Celtics to go down without a fight here. I also think that we could see the Cavs relax a bit defensively given how easy it's been so far in the series and that Boston will be without their best player in Thomas. As for Cleveland's offense, I don't see them taking their foot off the gas and I don't see the Celtics doing anything here to stop them from lighting up the scoreboard, especially now that the series has shifted to Cleveland Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year on UNDER

Each of the first two games in this series have gone well over the total and yet we are seeing the books stick close to their original number of 212 that they opened with for Game 1. With the series shifting to San Antonio and the Warriors off a 36-point blowout win in Game 2, I think Game 3 is poised to be a much lower-scoring game. For one, Golden State is primed for some kind of letdown here after how easy it was in Game 2 and don't figure to shoot as well on the road. San Antonio on the other hand is playing to keep their season alive. While the series isn't over with a loss, the Spurs know their chances of advancing down 3-0 are slim to none against this Warriors team. We are going to get everything San Antonio has and they know their only way of even keeping it close so they have a chance to win is to lock down defensively and slow the pace of play down. My money is on Popovich and his staff to make the proper adjustments and keep the Warriors high-powered attack in check. Take the UNDER!

5* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 Top Play on UNDER

The OVER had gone 4-1 in the series before a grueling 92-91 win by the Wizards in Game 6. It wasn't just one quarter where both teams were off. The highest combined point total of any quarter was 52. That's a 110 pace if they would have reached that mark in every quarter. This is just how the playoffs work. The deeper you get into a series the more intense it gets. That combined with the familiarity with each other usually results in much lower scoring games than what we might have seen earlier in the series.

This is really magnified in Game 7, where it's win or go home. Not only are teams giving 100% on defense every single play, but the pressure of the game often leads to some poorer shooting percentages. For most of the players on both of these teams, this will be the biggest game of their career. I would side with Boston given the advantage the home team has in Game 7 historically, but feel the best value is with the total. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs/Rockets UNDER

These two teams combined for 217 points, just eclipsing the total of 216, but needed OT to get there, as the two combined for only 202 at the end of regulation. The Rockets only played 7 players in that game and all 7 logged at least 26 minutes and 6 of the 7 played 34 or more with 4 players eclipsing 40 minutes. Houston clearly ran out of gas in that game. Playing at home will help those tired legs, but I just don't see the Rockets playing at the ridiculous tempo here and for this one to finish well below the numbers the books have posted. I believe we will see a similar style of game to Game 3, where the two combined for 195 points. Take the UNDER!

4* Warriors/Jazz NBA Over/Under No Brainer on UNDER

The public loves to back the OVER in Warriors games, which has created some great value when they go up against some of the better teams. In fact, the UNDER is 20-5-1 in the Warriors last 26 games against a team that simply has a winning record (not just the elite teams). It's 2-1 in the series with Game 3 in Utah finishing with 193 points on a total of 209. That was with Durant and Curry combining for 61 and Hayward and Gobert teaming up for 50. Utah's known for their defense and the Warriors aren't too far behind them, the media just focuses on the offense. I don't see the Jazz going out without a fight and I also think Golden State is motivated here to match the Cavs with back-to-back sweeps to start the playoffs. I wouldn't be shocked if this game fails to reach 190 points. Take the UNDER!

4* Raptors/Cavs Over/Under Total No Brainer on OVER

I just don't trust the Cavaliers defense right now. They allowed 108.8 ppg in their opening series against the Pacers and face an even more potent offense here in Toronto. The Raptors didn't put up big numbers offensively in their first series against the Bucks, but that was because of how long and talented Milwaukee is on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland has a lot more holes defensively, plus they like to play at a much faster tempo and shoot a ton of 3's. While the Cavs defense struggled, the offense was on point and I look for a high-scoring game here with both teams being well-rested. These two combined for only 181 point sin their last meeting, but that was the regular season finale where several starters didn't play. The previous two games between these two teams saw them combine for 138 and 128 points. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I was all over the UNDER in Game 3 (1st Rd Total of the Month) and I'm sticking with it for Game 4. I expected a much slower paced game when the series shifted to Milwaukee in Game 3 and see no reason to think Game 4 is all the sudden going to be a shootout. The Bucks have shown they matchup well with the Raptors, who just can't get comfortable with the size of Milwaukee.

On the flip side of this, Toronto's back is against the wall, as they certainly don't want to fall behind 3-1 in the series. Look for an all out effort here from the Raptors on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, we can expect some regression from Milwaukee's offense, which shot a ridiculous 53% from the field and 52% behind the 3-point line. As for the Bucks, I don't see them not bringing it as well, as they know all their hard work is for nothing if they let Toronto win here and take back the home court advantage. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs (1st Rd) TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the Raptors and Bucks. These two combined for just 180 points in Milwaukee's 97-83 win. They would go for 206 in Toronto's 106-100 victory in Game 2. With the series shifting to Milwaukee and the Bucks clearly better off with a slower pace, I look for them to dictate the tempo. This is also a huge game in the series, as both teams will be desperate for that 2-1 series lead. UNDER is 6-1 in the Raptors last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 16-5 in their last 21 road games overall. UNDER is 16-4 in the Bucks last 20 when facing an opponent that scored 100+ in their last game, 5-1-1 in their last 7 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Raptors UNDER

These two teams combined for just 180 points in Game 1 with a total of 198. The books have adjusted big time for Game 2, but I don't think it's going to matter. These are two really good defensive teams that matchup well against the other. Toronto's defense improved big time when they added in Ibaka and Tucker, while the length of the Bucks really makes it hard for the opposition to get into any kind of rhythm.  I don't see either team getting 100 points and wouldn't be shocked to see a very similar combined score to Game 1. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER

The playoffs bring a whole different intensity and while we don't see the UNDER cashing regularly right out of the gate, I think this series is one that is going to be an offensive struggle for both sides. Memphis isn't as good defensively as they have been in the past, but they were 6th overall in defensive efficiency this season. The Spurs on the other hand were the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Factor in that both of these teams value possession of the ball and rank in the bottom 5 in pace, I think both teams will struggle to reach 90 points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Bucks UNDER

Milwaukee should have no problem keeping the Mavericks offense in check and keeping this well below the mark set by the books. Dallas has been eliminated from playoff contention and aren't going to be look to push the tempo here and just won't have that same edge to their play. That's a problem for a team that has scored fewer than 98 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Milwaukee still hasn't clinched a playoff spot and are going to bring the defensive intensity in this one and the Bucks have been playing much better defensively during their big late season run. As for Milwaukee's offense, they aren't overly explosive and will likely be without point guard Malcolm Brogdon, who isn't getting near enough talk about being Rookie of the Year. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Late Night Total No Brainer on Suns/Blazers OVER

I really like the value here with the total in Saturday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Blazers. Portland averages 110.3 ppg at home and Phoenix gives up 113.7 ppg on the road. On the flip side of this, the Blazers allow 109 ppg and the Suns average 107.1 ppg. Both these teams like to get up and down the floor and play at a fast pace. Last time out the Suns combined for 242 points in a 118-124 loss to the Clippers. Portland combined for 224 in a win over the Rockets and the game before combined for 235 with the Nuggets. It's also worth noting that Phoenix has allowed 120 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Thunder UNDER

I think the books have set the total way too high for tonight's big matchup between the Spurs and Thunder on ESPN. Oklahoma City has went UNDER the total in 5 of their last 6, while the Spurs have gone UNDER in 3 of their last 5. These two teams have played twice this season and both times have finished with 202 or fewer points. I believe we could see an even lower-scoring game than normal, as both of these teams are in a bit of a flat spot. Spurs are coming off back-to-back games against the Cavs and Warriors, while the Thunder are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights off a couple of grueling road games at Dallas and Orlando where they had to make big comebacks in the 4th quarter. UNDER is 32-17 in the Spurs last 49 as a road favorite of 6 or less and 31-17 in Thunder's last 48 as an underdog.

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Hornets UNDER

I really like the value here with the total, as the books have set the bar too high for this one. This is a huge game for both of these teams and I believe it's going to be a lot like a playoff atmosphere. Milwaukee is tied for 5th in the east, but are just 2.5-games from missing the postseason completely. One of the teams trying to sneak into the mix is the Hornets, who are 2-games back of 8th place Miami. Not to mention that Milwaukee has really been playing well defensively over the last month and Charlotte is a team that can lock down defensively at home when they need to. UNDER is 8-1 in the Hornets last 9 home games in the 2nd half of the season against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks UNDER

The Bucks have been locking down opponents on the defensive side of the floor lately. Milwaukee has allowed more than 103 points just twice in their last 12 games and both of those came on the road with one of them being the Warriors. They should have no problem keeping the Hawks in check at home. Atlanta continues to play without two of their most important pieces in Millsap and Bazemore. The Hawks have scored 100 or less in 5 straight games. Atlanta can't keep messing around. They are sitting in 5th place in the east, but just 3.5 games from being in 9th. I look for both teams to bring the intensity on defense and keep this well below the number. UNDER is 13-3 in the Hawks last 16 road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 14-2 in their last 16 off a road loss. UNDER is also 20-8 in the Bucks last 28 games in the month of March and 9-1 in their last 10 when facing a team that scored 100 or more in their last game. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacers/Celtics UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in tonight's matchup between the Pacers and Celtics. Boston has really been locking teams down defensively in the 2nd half of the season and it's resulted in 17 of their last 21 going UNDER the total posted by the books. Indiana has also been playing much better on defense of late, as they have allowed 100 or less in 9 of their last 10. The Pacers have seen the UNDER going 16-7 in their last 23. These two teams also have a tendency to play lower-scoring games than the books expect, as 7 of their last 10 meetings have finished UNDER the total. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Wolves UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower-scoring game than the books are anticipating when the Wolves and Spurs clash on ESPN tonight. San Antonio is one of the elite defensive teams in the league and come in allowing just 98.6 ppg. Minnesota's defense slipped during their 3-game road trip, but the T-Wolves have held the Wizards, Warriors and Clippers to 104 or less points in their last 3 home games. Keep in mind that these two teams also just recently played on 3/4 and combined for a mere 187 points. UNDER is 31-17 in the Spurs last 48 as a road favorite of 6-points or less and 13-3 in their lat 16 in the 2nd half against marginal losing teams (40% to 49%). UNDER is also 4-1 in the Wolves last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Pacers/Raptors UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Pacers and Raptors. Indiana comes in having held each of their last 5 opponents under 100 points and failed to eclipse the 100 point mark in 3 of their last 4. Their last game saw just 175 combined points and the game before that was just 168. Toronto has held 2 of their last 3 opponents to 80 or points or less and combined for a mere 162 in their last game at Detroit. Toronto's just not the same offensive team without Lowry and have to rely more on their defense. UNDER is 24-7 in the Raptors last 31 off an upset win and 16-5 in the Pacers last 21 overall. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle here between these two Southwest Division rivals. The Spurs come in allowing just 98.5 ppg which is second in the league behind the Jazz. Memphis isn't far behind, as they rank 4th at 100.4 ppg and are even stronger at home, where they allow a mere 97.2 ppg. UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. It's also 9-3 in the Grizzlies last 12 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 12-4 in the Spurs last 16 after they scored 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Clippers UNDER

Both of these teams are fighting for playoff position and will be extra motivated after losing last time out. Milwaukee was embarrassed in a 93-113 defeat at Memphis, while the Clippers lost at Utah 108-114. Note that prior to giving up 113 to the Grizzlies, the Bucks had held each of their last 5 to 100 points or less and 8 of their last 9 to 102 or fewer. I expect a much more locked in Milwaukee team in this one on defense. LA is also a team that can play defense and they have been trending much better on that side of the ball.

UNDER is 24-9 in the Clippers last 33 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 13-3 in their last 16 home games in the month of March, 22-9 in their last 31 home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after 3 straight games where they shot 47% or better from the field. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conf Total of the Month on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle tonight between the Bucks and Grizzlies. I know Memphis has slumped on the defensive side of the ball of late, but they were better in their last home game against the Hawks. With the losing streak at 5 now, I'm expecting a max effort here from the Grizzlies and it starts with the defensive side of the ball. Milwaukee will be more than willing to grind it out with Memphis, as the Bucks have been sensational on the defensive side of the ball of late. Milwaukee has held each of their last 5 opponents under 98 points and will face a Memphis offense that managed just 90 points on 37.8% shooting in their last game.

UNDER is 15-6 in the Grizzlies last 21 as a home favorite, 17-5 in their last 22 when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 7-1 in their last 8 when facing a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER!

4* Warriors/Wolves NBATV Heavy Hitter on UNDER 

The injury to Durant combined with Curry just not playing at the same level as the past two years has the Warriors offense in a funk. Golden State is averaging just 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and that's well below their season mark of 117.0 ppg. They now face a Minnesota team that is locking down on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves have allowed 97 or fewer points in 4 straight. While the offense has struggled, Golden State's defense has picked up the pace and they are really playing well on that side of the ball. I look for both offenses to struggle here. We know we are going to get a max effort from the Timberwolves at home in a game being televised on NBATV and the Warriors aren't going to take this one lightly off a loss. UNDER is 9-1 in the Warriors last 10 road games after 5 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less and 13-5 in their last 18 road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rockets/Spurs UNDER

I'm taking the Spurs and Rockets to finish below the high total set here by the books. San Antonio can be a dominant defensive team when they want to and are capable of slowing down the Rockets. In fact, they have held Houston to 100 points or fewer in 9 straight meetings between the two clubs. That includes two games this year, which the two teams combined for 206 and 202 points respectively. I expect a similar outcome here.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Rockets last 15 road games after scoring 105 or more points in 4 straight games, 11-4 in their last 15 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Spurs last 10 when playing on 1 day of rest, 10-1 in their last 11 off a win and 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Mavs UNDER

The fact that offenses are scoring at a ridiculous pace this season has forced oddsmakers to adjust the totals big time and I believe it creates some decent value when you get two teams like the Mavericks and Heat that aren't all that great offensively and still bring it on the defensive end of the floor. Dallas has especially been grinding games out of late. The Mavs have failed to eclipse 100 points in 4 straight and allowed 100 or less in their last 3.

Miami's offense has been playing well during their huge 2nd half surge, but I don't see them putting up a big number here on the road against this Mavs team. Not only will the Heat not being scoring as much as normal, they should be able to lockdown defensively on Dallas, who is scoring just 96.2 ppg over their last 5. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Hawks/Magic OVER

I'm expecting a high-scoring affair tonight between the Hawks and Magic. Orlando traded away one of their best defensive players in Ibaka and were not good defensively to start with. The Magic come in having allowed 107 or more points in 7 straight games. They allowed the Blazers to shoot 50.6% from the field in their first game back from the break.

Atlanta only managed 90 points in their first game back last night at home against the Heat, but that came without starting point guard Dennis Schroder, who was serving a suspension. Atlanta has scored at least 110 points in each of the last 4 meetings in the series. Hawks haven't been playing great defense of late and I think Orlando does enough at home to push this well over the mark. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Suns/Bulls OVER

I'm not expecting a lot of defense to be on display when the Bulls host he Suns tonight. Chicago just traded away one of their better defensive players in Taj Gibson. That move also means the pulls are going to play more of a smaller lineup with a stretch 4 like Mirotic. That should help generate more offense, but will hurt the Bulls defensively and Phoenix is a team that can put the ball in the basket. The Suns come in averaging 106.9 ppg and don't have hardly any dropoff on the road (106.2 ppg).

Phoenix doesn't play defense, as they come in allowing 113.3 ppg on the road. They also just traded away one of their best defensive players in P.J. Tucker. The Suns final 4 games before the break all had a combined score of at least 212 points. That included a 115-97 win over the Bulls at home. That's the only time Phoenix has held an opponent under 100 points in their last 20 games. OVER is 12-4 in the Suns 16 games this season against teams that allow opponents to shoot 46 or better from the field. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Wolves OVER

The books have set the bar too low for tonight's total between the Mavericks and Timberwolves. Minnesota is a team that likes to push the pace offensively and while their head coach preaches defense, they don't play a ton of it. The Timberwolves scored 106 or more points in 6 straight before the break and have allowed 100+ points in 14 of their last 16 games. Dallas isn't known for being an offensive team, but I believe they are trending in that direction with the move to release Deron Williams and give the point guard job to Yogi Ferrell.

I'm not expecting this to be in the 220's but I feel this number is way to low given that the average combined score in Minnesota home games is 210.7. OvER is 5-1 in the Mavs last 6 against the west and 20-7 in their last 27 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. OVER is also 5-0 in the T-Wolves last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 6-1 in their last 7 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Blazers/Magic OVER

I really like the value we are getting here on the total in tonight's matchup between the Blazers and Magic. I have this one easily eclipsing the 220 mark and potentially getting to 230. I just don't see either of these teams being all that motivated to play defense coming out of the break, especially given how disappointing a season it's been for both of these teams.

On top of that, defense has been a major problem for both teams, as each ranks in the bottom 8 in defensive efficiency. Not to mention both teams have had some big moving pieces in trades. OVER is 11-2 in the Magic's last 13 home games against a team from the Northwest division and 11-3 in the Blazers last 14 road games after going under the total in their previous game. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Rockets OVER

I look for a lot of offensive fireworks tonight when the Rockets host the Heat. These two recently played in Miami, with the Heat winning 109-103. Houston shot just 40% from the floor and the two teams still managed to combine for 212 points. Considering the Rockets are on 3-days rest and averaging 116.0 ppg at home this season, I think these two will have no problem making up the difference to push this over the mark. Miami has scored 105 or more points in 7 straight games.

OVER is 4-1 in the Rockets last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and a perfect 4-0 in Houston's last 4 when playing on 3 or more days rest. OVER is also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Houston. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Magic UNDER

I think the books have set the total too high for this one. San Antonio is playing on fumes right now, as this will be their 6th straight on the road, all of which coming since 2/6. I just don't see the Spurs looking to push the pace here. Their only focus is getting a win going into the All-Star break.

With Orlando likely playing short-handed, I look for the Spurs to try and put this game away early. Their defense should be able to make life miserable for the Magic. San Antonio has held 6 of their last 8 opponents under 100 points and Orland is only averaging 97.7 ppg at home. UNDER is 23-8 in the Spurs last 31 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bulls OVER

There's a lot of moving parts going on around this game, as the Raptors just made a trade for Serge Ibaka and the Bulls are expected to be without starters Wade and Butler, as well as reserves Mirotic and Zipser. All of this has this game feeling a bit like an exhibition game and I just don't see either team playing much defense in this one.

Chicago certainly hasn't been playing any of late. The Bulls have allowed 100 or more points in 9 straight games and given up 115 or more in each of their last 3. Given what Chicago has to work with and the Raptors ability to light it up offensively (109.1 ppg), I think Toronto is going to continue that streak. Not having Butler and Wade might seem like a huge loss for Chicago's offense, but it allows them to play at a little faster pace and gets some more 3-point shooters on the floor. You also have to take into consideration that Toronto will have a difficult time taking the Bulls seriously without their star players, so it's unlikely they are coming into this one looking to lock down defensively. OVER is 8-0 in the Bulls last 8 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Southeast Game of the Month on Magic/Heat OVER

I'm expecting a shootout in Miami when the Heat host the Magic tonight. Miami had their 13-game winning streak snapped in a 109-117 loss at Philadelphia on Saturday. It's exactly difficult to keep the momentum going from a long winning streak after it's snapped. On top of that, the Heat are returning home from a 4-game road trip. I just don't see the effort being their on the defensive side of the ball, especially against a bad team like the Magic.

Offensively the Heat should be able to continue to their recent surge. Miami has scored 100+ points in 12 straight games and are facing a Orlando defense that has allowed 112 or more in each of their last 4 and are giving up 109 ppg on the road this season. OVER is 8-1 in the Magic's last 9 road games after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 12-4 in their last 16 after giving up 60+ points at the half of their last game. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Heat/Bucks OVER

I think this total is a good 10-points lower than what it should be. The Heat are playing at a different level right now than they were just a few weeks ago. Miami only averages 100.7 ppg on the season, but have scored 100 or more in 9 straight games, eclipsing 115 points in each of their last 3. That trend doesn't figure to come to an end against a Bucks team that has allowed 100+ in 17 straight games and is mixing up the rotation with three new faces tonight.

While Miami figures to have no problem surpassing the 100-point mark, I think the Bucks could really light up the scoreboard here. The Heat are not the same team defensively on the road and the Bucks are locked in offensively right now. After putting up 117 at Denver, the hung 137 on the Suns the next night. These two played in Miami on 1/13 and combined for 224 points and I think we will see a similar type of output tonight. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Rockets OVER

I don't think the books have set the total high enough for tonight's showdown between the Rockets and Magic. On one side you have one the most dynamic and efficient offenses in the league in the Rockets and on the other you have one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Magic, Houston is averaging 114.8 ppg at home and the Magic are giving up 108.2 ppg on the road. The Rockets should score close to 120-125 on their own, which means we just need an average offense night from the Magic to push this over the total.

I believe we will get at least that from Orlando and maybe some more. Given how bad the Magic have been this year and are playing at the moment, this isn't a game where the Rockets are going to choose to use up a ton of energy on the defensive side of the ball. OVER is 6-2 in the Rockets last 8 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 7-0 in the Magic's last 7 road games after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Lakers/Knicks OVER

These two teams played back in December and combined for 230 points in a 118-112 Knicks win. I think we are going to see a similar scoring output here. Both of these teams have the ability to put up a lot of points and each rank in the top half of the league in pace. Each also come into this game in good form. Lakers have scored at least 107 in each of their last 3 and the Knicks are averaging 109.8 ppg over their last 5.

The big key here is that neither of these teams play much defense. In fact, both rank in the bottom 7 of the league in defensive efficiency. Lakers have allowed 113 or more in each of their last 3 games and the Knicks have allowed 100+ in 11 of their last 12. Add in this being a game played on Monday, where players just aren't always locked in and I think there's going to be zero defense played in this one. OVER is 13-4 in the Lakers last 17 road games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Cavs/Wizards UNDER

I really like the value here with the total and this one going under the mark set by the books. This is a big time game. Cleveland is the team to beat in the Eastern Conference and the Wizards are playing as well as anyone right now. Washington is 14-2 over their last 16 and have won 17 straight at home. The Cavs are well aware of this and I expect them to try a send a massage to the Wizards, especially with this being a nationally televised prime time game on TNT.

The defensive numbers for Cleveland aren't great, but this is a team that can get after it on that side of the ball when they want to. They also have been playing much better on that side of the ball of late, allowing just 99.0 ppg over their last 4. Washington's defense has also been solid of late, giving up just 96.0 ppg over their last 5. UNDER is 14-4 in Cleveland's last 18 as a road dog. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Pistons/Pacers UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here on the UNDER in the total for tonight's game between the Pistons and Pacers. Both teams are coming off a win last night where they scored 100+ points. The thing is, the offense figures to be down a notch for both sides playing on no rest, and this being their 3rd game in 4 nights. On top of that, we have two division rivals, who are both playing well at the moment and desperately want a win here.

UNDER is 31-17 in the Pistons last 48 road games after playing their previous game against a team from the western conference. UNDER is also 29-9 in the Pacers last 38 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 20-9 in their last 29 at home after a game where they covered the spread. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Total Top Play on Mavs/Blazers OVER

I believe the books have set the bar way too low for tonight's total between the Blazers and Mavericks. A big reason for the small total is the fact that the Mavericks are one of the worst offensive teams statistically at just 97.4 ppg. However, those numbers don't reflect how Dallas is playing right now. The Mavs are averaging 104.6 ppg over their last 5 and fresh off a 113-pt outburst against the 76ers.

Portland is a dynamic offensive team that comes in averaging 107.8 ppg on the season and is even better than that right now, putting up 114.0 ppg over their last 5. Defense has been the problem for the Blazers, as they are allowing 110.0 ppg. I see both teams easily eclipsing the 100-point mark and see this one finishing around the 215-210 range. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Total No Brainer on Hornets/Blazers OVER

I think we are getting some great value on the total going over the mark in tonight's matchup between the Blazers and Hornets. Portland likes to get up and down the floor and should be able to dictate the tempo at home, where they are averaging 108.9 ppg and allowing 107.8 ppg. I don't see Charlotte having any problem playing at the Blazers pace, as the Hornets come in off 2 days of rest and are putting up 104.8 ppg on the road this season. Charlotte's defensive woes are a big reason they are 23-25 and they come in allowing 106.0 ppg on the road. I see both teams easily getting past the 100-point mark and believe it will end up somewhere in the 220's.

OVER is 22-8 in the Hornets last 30 road games after playing their previous game at home, 14-6 in the Blazers last 20 after going under the total in their last game and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Kings/Rockets OVER

This might seem like a high total for tonight's matchup between the Kings and Rockets, but I don't see either team putting forth much effort on the defensive side of the ball in this one. Sacramento is playing on no rest, their 4th game in 5 nights and 8th straight on the road in a 12-day span. While the Rockets had yesterday off, they are dealing with jetlag after just returning home from a 5-game east coast trip.

On top of that, these two teams aren't exactly known for their defense and each is giving up a lot here of late. In fact, the Kings are allowing 111.8 ppg over their last 5 and the Rockets are allowing 116.0 ppg. At the same time, both offenses are scoring at will. Sacramento is averaging 112.8 ppg over their last 5 and Houston is even better at 113.2 ppg. Note that the Rockets average 115.3 ppg at home. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Suns OVER

I really like the value here with the total in Monday's matchup between the Suns and Grizzlies. The game is being played in Phoenix and I look for the Suns to dictate the tempo here against a Memphis team that has to be tired, playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights.

The Grizzlies are thought of as a great defensive team, but I don't see the effort being there tonight and they are giving up 104.4 ppg on the road this season. Offensively, Memphis is better than people think and have scored 100+ in 7 of their last 8. Phoenix has scored and allowed at least 100 points in 10 straight games. Only once in those 10 games did they fail to combine for at least 210 points. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Kings/Hornets UNDER

My money is on the Kings and Hornets to go under the mark set by the books on Saturday. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace here. The Kings have to be running on fumes right now. Sacramento is playing their 6th straight road game in a span of just 9 days and this one comes on no rest after an overtime loss at Indiana last night. The Hornets haven't had to deal with as much travel, but are also playing for the 6th time in 9 days and on no rest after an ugly loss last night at New York. I look for both teams to come out flat and both offenses to struggle to score enough to push this over the mark.

UNDER is 4-1 in the Kings last 5 when playing on no rest, 6-2 in their last 8 after a SU loss and 11-5 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 7-1 in the Hornets last 8 overall, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nets/Cavs OVER

I'm expecting a lot of points on the scoreboard in this one. Cleveland failed to win after LeBron called out ownership, losing in overtime at home to the Kings. The problem was the defense and I just don't see the Cavs being locked in on that side of the ball here. Cleveland is playing on fumes right now and aren't going to waste up their energy with a much bigger home game on deck Sunday against the Thunder.

Cleveland hasn't had any problem scoring of late, as they ahve put up 112 or more in each of their last 4 games. There's a good chance that trend continues against the Nets, who are allowing a ridiculous 117.3 ppg on the road this season. Brooklyn likes to play at a fast pace and that should allow them to take advantage of this tired Cleveland defense and do enough here to push it over the mark. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Thunder UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring game here when the Thunder host the Mavericks tonight. Both of these teams are running on fumes right now. Dallas will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will have to so without several key pieces. Wesley Matthews, Deron Williams, Dirk Nowitzki and Jose Barea are all out for this contest. As for the Thunder, they too are playing on no rest, plus are going to be dealing with some jetlag after just wrapping up a lengthy 6-game road trip. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace here and the shots from long distance won't be falling like they normally would. Not to mention, Dallas knows they can't run up and down the floor with OKC and will really try to slow this game to a snails pace.

UNDER is 10-1 in the Mavericks last 11 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 12-3 in their last 15 games on Thursday and 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-2 in OKC's last 8 after a win and 12-3 in their last 15 home games when playing 4 or less games in days. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

I'm expecting a much-higher scoring game than what most will anticipate tonight when the Mavericks host the Knicks. Dallas is known as a team that is limited offensively and likes to play at a slow pace. While that's true to an extent, you have to look at who they are playing and the current form.

While the Mavs are averaging just 96.6 ppg on the season, they come in scoring 104.2 ppg over their last 5, shooting just under 47% from the field as a team. Good chance they keep it rolling against a Knicks team that is allowing 107.4 ppg over their last 5 and 110.3 ppg on the road. Knicks are more than capable of keeping pace offensively, as they average 105.6 ppg on the season and are scoring 109.6 ppg over their last 5.

OVER is 42-18 in the Mavs last 60 home games off a home win by 20 or more points and a perfect 7-0 in the Knicks last 7 off a road win. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Nets OVER

I don't think the books have set the bar high enough for tonight's total between the Spurs and Nets. Brooklyn is a bad team, but their ability to put up points combined with their inability to play defense, makes them a great team to back on the OVER. The Nets come in averaging 106.2 ppg , while allowing 114.9 ppg. The Spurs can make great defenses look average and should have no problem scoring at will here against Brooklyn. San Antonio is averaging 108.1 ppg on the road this season and scored 130 on the Nets in the first meeting this season.

OVER is 12-4 in the Spurs last 16 after 3 or more consecutive wins  and 13-3 in their last 16 after shooting 50% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games. OVER is 13-4 in the Nets Last 17 non-conference games and 23-9 in their last 32 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Blazers/Celtics OVER

I like the value here with the total, as I'm expecting a shootout in Boston tonight. The Celtics have been scoring at will on the offensive end of late, as they have scored 100+ in 16 straight games. Hard to image that streak coming to an end against Portland. The Blazers are giving up 112.0 ppg on the road this season. Boston also figures to push the pace here coming off a 2-day break. I think the Celtics are going to hit 220 or more and the Blazers should be able to get at least 100. Boston has allowed 100 or more in 14 of their last 15 games.

OVER is 22-13 in the Blazers last 35 with a total of 210 or more and 16-5 in the Celtics last 21 home games after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Blazers/Hornets OVER

I don't think the books have set the total high enough for Wednesday's non-conference clash between the Blazers and Hornets. Neither of these teams are playing much defense right now. The Blazers are giving up 110.7 ppg on the season and 113.0 ppg on the road. Don't see a big effort on defense from Portland in this one. Charlotte has been even worse defensively of late, as they have allowed 100+ in 8 straight games and have allowed 110 or more in 5 of those. Portland can score the basketball, as they average 107.9 ppg overall and 107.1 ppg on the road.

OVER is 13-5 in the Blazers last 18 road games with a total of 210 or more and 13-4 in the Hornets last 17 after going under the total in their previous game. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Mavs/Bulls UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here when the Bulls host the Mavericks on Tuesday. Neither of these two teams like to play at a very fast pace. Chicago ranks 23rd in pace and Dallas is tied for last in pace with Utah. The big key here is the Bulls are going to be out for revenge from an ugly 82-107 loss at Dallas earlier this season. That's going to have Chicago locked in on the defensive side of the ball and this team can get after you defensively when they want to. More than anything, I just don't see enough possessions here for this one to reach 200, especially when you factor in both of these teams rank in the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency.

UNDER is 31-15 in the Bulls last 46 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 8-3 in their last 11 home games and 8-1 in their last 9 at home against a team with a losing road record. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Mavs last 10 following a cover, 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record and 7-0 in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Hawks UNDER

The books have created some great value here with this high number on the total for Sunday's game between the Bucks and Hawks. Atlanta's defense is trending up, as they come in having allowed just 93.6 ppg over their last 5 and I expect a big defensive effort from the Hawks at home after watching their 7-game winning streak snapped in a 101-103 loss at home to the Celtics. The Bucks aren't a great defensive team, but can lock down when they want to on that side of the ball and this Atlanta is far from explosive. 

UNDER has gone 6-3 in the last 9 meetings overall and 4-1 in the last 5 games in Atlanta. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Hawks last 9 after 5 straight games holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting percentage, 9-1 in their last 10 after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 12-2 in their last 14 home games off a home loss. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Dominator on Pistons/Jazz UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game tonight when the Pistons visit the Jazz. Utah is locked in on the defensive side of the ball right now and it's well known that the Jazz are a dominant defensive team. In Utah's last 3 games they have held Minnesota to 92 points, Grizzlies to 88 points and the Cavs to 92 points. Detroit is only scoring 100.3 ppg and don't figure to have their legs in this one, as they are playing their 4th straight on a west coast road trip. I know the Pistons defense hasn't been great of late, but with the way Utah likes to slow the game down, I don't see them going off here.

UNDER is 29-16 in the Pistons last 45 road games after playing a game against a team from the Western Conference and 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 125 or more points in their previous game (allowed 127 to Warriors). UNDER is also 22-9 in Utah's last 31 home games with a total of 190 to 199.5, 8-0 in their last 8 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 8-0 in their last 8 at home after leading in their last game by 15 or more at the half. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Mavs/Suns OVER

I think the books have set the bar way too low for tonight's total between the Mavs and Suns, as they two will face off in Mexico City. I just don't think teams lock in defensively in these games outside the country and there's plenty of reason to expect a lot of scoring just given the matchup.

The Mavericks are giving up 102.6 ppg on the road and the Suns are allowing 113.5 ppg away from home. Dallas is only scoring 95.1 ppg, but even the most limited offenses can torch this Phoenix defense. The Suns also rank 3rd in pace, so we should see extra possessions for both sides. Phoenix can also light it up, as they are scoring 105.9 ppg.

OVER is 20-9 in the Suns last 29 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game, 16-4 in their last 20 after scoring 105 or more and 9-1 in their last 10 after a home game where both teams scored 100+. TAKE THE OVER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Lakers/Blazers OVER

I got no problem playing the over on this big total here with the Blazers and Lakers. All signs point to a high-scoring game in this one. We have two teams that don't play a lot of defense. In fact, each ranks in the bottom 3 in defensive efficiency. The Lakers are allowing 109.8 ppg and the Blazers are allowing 111.5 ppg (even worse 113.9 ppg on the road).

Not only do we have two teams who don't play defense, but we have two offenses that like to get out and run and shoot a lot of 3-pointers. Both rank in the Top 10 in pace. Portland averages 108.2 ppg and Los Angeles is at 105.3 ppg overall and a much better 109.8 ppg at home. Each team is also trending up on offense, with the Blazers scoring 109.6 ppg over the last 5 games and the Lakers at 115.4 ppg. 

OVER is 12-4 in the Blazers last 16 road games with a total of 210 or more and 13-4 in their last 17 on the road after allowing 105 or more in each of their last 2 games. OVER is also 13-3 in the Lakers last 16 against a team with a losing record, 13-5 in their last 18 at home and 7-3 in their last 10 when facing a team that allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Celtics/Raptors OVER

I'm expecting a very high-scoring game when two of the Eastern Conference's best square off tonight. We have the Celtics visiting the Raptors. While these two can play solid defense, I don't think we see a lot of it tonight. More than anything, these are two elite offenses that can flat out score and are doing so at a very high rate of late. 

Toronto is second in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 110.6 ppg on the season, 112.9 ppg at home and 109.0 ppg over their last 5. Keep in mind Boston will be without their best perimeter defender in Avery Bradley and that's a huge loss against the Raptors loaded backcourt. Boston ranks 7th in offensive efficiency, averaging 106.8 ppg overall, 106.7 ppg on the road and 115.4 ppg over their last 5. Note the Celtics offense has been lights out of late. They have scored 110 or more 8 straight and 9 of their last 10. 

OVER is 18-4 in the Celtics last 22 after scoring 100 or more in 4 straight games, 8-0 in their last 8 when having won 8 of their last 10 and 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 11-2 in the Raptors last 13 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 11-3 in their last 14 off SU loss and 11-0 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more in the first half of their last game. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Thunder/Bulls OVER

I expect a high-scoring game tonight when the Bulls and Thunder clash at the United Center. This game features two of the league's most promising stars in Russell Westbrook and Jimmy Butler. While they get all the attention, it's how these two teams are playing overall that has me liking this one to go OVER the mark here set by the books.

Chicago has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 108.8 ppg over their last 5 games. A big part of the improved play offensively, is the production the Bulls are getting from guys like Mirotic, McDermott and Carter-Williams. I look for Chicago to have no problem keeping it going against a Thunder team that doesn't figure to play with a lot of energy on defense playing their 4th road game in their last 5 overall. OKC is giving up 108.7 ppg on the road this season and 106.6 ppg over their last 5.

While the Bulls offense is surging, the defense hasn't been there. Chicago is giving up 110 ppg over their last 5 and will be facing a dynamic Thunder offense that is scoring 106.8 ppg on the season and 111.4 ppg over their last 5. Big key here is the Bulls don't have the talent at point guard to make things tough on Westbrook. That should lead to a fast-paced game from the get go. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wolves/Wizards OVER

I really like the value here on the total in tonight's matchup between the Wizards and Wolves. These are two teams that know how to score the basketball. Minnesota comes in averaging 103.3 ppg and Washington is averaging 105.2 ppg with an even better 108.2 ppg at home. At the same time, these are two teams that struggle to defend. The Timberwolves give up 105.0 ppg and the Wizards allow 106.2 ppg.

With both teams having not played since Tuesday (2 days rest), both are going to have fresh legs and will be looking to get out an run as much as possible. This is huge for both of these teams, as Minnesota's starters lead the league in minutes played and the Wizards are second. Some might look to back the under after seeing Minnesota score 91 and 89 points in their last two games, but that actually is a good thing. OVER is 11-2 in the Wolves last 13 after going UNDER the total in each of their last 2 games. OVER is also 13-4 in the Wizards last 17 when playing with 2 days rest and 16-5 in their last 21 after playing their last 2 games on the road. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bulls/Cavs UNDER

I think the total here has been set way too high. Cleveland could be playing this game without all 3 of their Big 3 and will more than likely not have Irving in this one. James and Love are both dealing with sickness and it was so bad for James that he was told to stay home from shootaround. Even if he plays, I just don't see the Cavs looking to push the tempo here.

Chicago isn't in much better shape, as they could be without Wade and Rondo continues to ride the bench in Hoiberg's doghouse. The key here is that whoever does end up playing will bring the defensive intensity in this division matchup. UNDER is 19-7 in the Bulls last 26 division road games, 9-3-1 in their last 13 after scoring 100 or more in their last game and 7-3-1 in their last 11 off a SU win. Take the UNDER !

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Spurs UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Tuesday's contest between the Raptors and Spurs. These are two of the best the league has to offer and I expect both to bring the defensive intensity in this one. Anytime you get two elite teams facing off with a big total like we have here, the UNDER is always a strong option. In fact, the UNDER is 62-20 (76%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 or more with two teams that are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg.

Last year these two teams played twice and combined for just 191 and 197 points. It's also worth pointing out that both totals last year were no where close to what we are seeing here. The total was just 187.5 at San Antonio and 192 at Toronto. We also see that the UNDER is 4-1 in the Spurs last 5 off a SU loss and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* Bulls/Spurs NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

The defensive intensity is turned up a notch from what it normally is during the regular season on these Christmas Day games and the Spurs/Bulls matchup will be no different. Both these teams can get after it defensively. Chicago is only giving up 99.7 ppg and the Spurs allow just 97.9 ppg. 

This game means a lot to both teams. San Antonio wants revenge from a 91-95 loss in Chicago earlier this season, which is one of only two road losses all year. The Bulls are simply desperate for a win, as they have dropped 2 straight and 8 of their last 11. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Bulls 14 road games this season, 9-1 in their last 10 after a loss by 10 or more and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER! 

5* Warriors/Cavs Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER

Playing on Christmas Day is a big deal for these NBA players and there's not a bigger game on the schedule today that the NBA Finals rematch between the Warriors and Cavs. Both teams want to make a statement and send a message to other team that they are the team to beat this year. While it won't quite be the intensity of a Game 7, it will be close. 

A lot of people get taken in by what these two teams can do offensively, but both are elite defensive teams when they want to be. They just don't play with that intensity on defense every game, as they can just rely on their offense to carry them against the majority of the league. Keep in mind that these two combined for just 182 points in Game 7 last year and we are sitting here with a total north of 220. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Central Division Play of the Month on Bucks/Cavs UNDER

We had the UNDER in last night's game which was a tough loss, as the two teams finished UNDER the total in regulation, but the game went to OT and pushed it over the mark. On the bright side, I believe has kept tonight's total higher than it should be. More time than not, these second games of a home-and-home set on back-to-back nights end up being a much lower scoring game than the first time around. The fact that these two had to play an extra 5 mines last night, only helps us here.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Cavs decided to rest some players here, as they want to be fresh for Sunday's big Christmas Day showdown against the Warriors (have to play Brooklyn Friday). Note that J.R. Smith is already listed as doubtful and Kevin Love is questionable and likely won't play.

UNDER is 35-18 in Cleveland's last 53 home games after giving up 105 or more points in 2 straight games and 13-3 in their last 16 after covering the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Bucks last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest and 10-4 in their last 14 against division opponents. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Cavs/Bucks UNDER

These two teams recently played in Milwaukee on 11/29. The Bucks won that game 118-101. While that game finished over the total of 213.5, we find an even shorter total in the rematch. For good reason. Cleveland didn't show any interest on the defensive side of the ball in that last meeting and the Cavs aren't a team that takes losing lightly. They are going to be out to make a statement here against the Bucks and have really been locking down defensively here of late.

Milwaukee is also going to be all business in this one, as they know they are going to get a great effort here from Cleveland and want to prove that their earlier win was no fluke. Milwaukee's defense has been hit or miss, but they have consistently showed up on that side of the ball against division opponents, as they are allowing just 94.4 ppg against their Central rivals this season. The Bucks also catch a break here, as the Cavs will be minus a huge weapon on offense in Kevin Love, who is doubtful with a knee injury.

UNDER is 35-17 in Milwaukee's last 52 after a SU win, 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central Division and 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Pacers OVER

I think these two teams will have no problem eclipsing this high total tonight. The Wizards have seen the OVER cash in 5 straight games, all of which seen a combined score of 213 or more. Washington is averaging 111.8 ppg during this stretch and giving up 108.2 ppg. I don't see the Pacers being able to keep Washington's offense in check here. Indiana is in a big flat spot here defensively, as they have played 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 on the road and are short-handed right now with both Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey sidelined with injuries.

The key here is that Indiana still has the fire-power offensively to take advantage of Washington's poor defense. On top of that, the Wizards don't figure to bring much intensity defensively in this one. Washington just played yesterday at home against the Clippers and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.

OVER is 23-9 in the Wizards last 32 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 14-3 in their last 17 road games when listed as a dog of 6 or less. OVER is also 10-1 in Washington's last 11 road games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

I think both of these teams are primed for a poor offensive showing in this one. Both are going to be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and there's a little extra motivation defensively here with this being a division matchup. Indiana is playing without one of their top offensive weapons in Monta Ellis and his absence has really improved their defense. Detroit on the other hand just played last night in Washington, where the defense failed to show up in a 108-122 defeat. I look for a much better effort defensively at home, where the Pistons are only giving up 90.7 ppg on the season.

UNDER is 26-6 in the Pacers last 32 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 10-2 in their last 12 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Pistons last 9 as a home favorite, 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest and 7-3 in their last 10 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Nets/Magic OVER

This one has a shootout written all over it, as two struggling teams face off Friday night with Nets (7-17) visiting the Magic (11-16). Anytime Brooklyn is involved in a game, you have to lean to the over, especially on the road. The OVER is 17-7 in the Nets 24 games overall this season and 10-1 in their 11 road games. Why is that? Brooklyn leads the league in pace, averaging 103.9 possessions per game and have shown the ability to score at 106.5 ppg. On top of that, they rank 28th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency and come in giving up 118.5 ppg.

You might be thinking Orlando isn't a great bet here, as the Magic come in averaging just 96.6 ppg overall and a mere 94.8 ppg at home. It's all about Orlando's current form. The Magic are averaging 105.4 ppg over their last 5 and have seen a combined score of 121 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the OVER!

5* Knicks/Warriors TNT Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER

I look for the Warriors to light up the scoreboard tonight against the Knicks. Golden State is coming off a 5-game road trip, where they only averaged 107.8 ppg. That might seem like a lot, but this is a team that's averaging 117.8 ppg on the season. They have been electric at home, scoring 123.9 ppg. The Knicks have been better than a lot of people expected, but have struggled when facing the elite teams. They simply aren't a good enough defensive team to put up a serious fight here.

The key here is the Warriors up tempo offense allows for their opponents to put up a big number. Golden State is allowing 109.2 ppg at home, as opponents are averaging 90 shot attempts against them. With just 1-day off after that 5-game road trip, I just don't see the all out defensive intensity that would be needed to keep this from going over the total.

It's also worth pointing out that all 5 of the Warriors game on their road trip went under the total, which only adds to the value here, as the OVER is 23-9 in their last 32 after 5 or more consecutive games going under the total. OVER is also 21-7 in the Knicks last 28 road games off a close road loss by 3 or less (lost 111-113 in OT at Phoenix on Tuesday). Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Kings/Rockets OVER

These two teams are poised to light up the scoreboard tonight. Houston likes to play at a frantic pace and should have no problem pushing the tempo here, as they will be playing their third straight at home and just their second game in the last 4 days. It certainly helps facing a Kings team that has some major holes on the defensive side of the ball, as they are giving up 103.5 ppg. Sacramento is also one of the worst teams in the league at defending the 3-point shot, which is what the Rockets do better than anybody in the league, as they come into this one having made an NBA-record 10 or more 3-points in 24 straight games.

When the offense is rolling, Houston doesn't have to worry as much on the defensive side of the ball and we saw that first hand in their last game at home against the Nets, where they allowed Brooklyn to put up 118 points on 52.5% shooting. Sacramento is a very capable offensive team and should have no problem eclipsing the 100-point mark and pushing this game into the 220's.

OVER is 15-4 in the Rockets last 19 against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 14-4 in their last 18 home games after playing their previous game as a home favorite. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on OVER

I look for a lot of offense in tonight's game between the Bulls and Timberwolves. Chicago comes in averaging 105.6 ppg at home and should see their offense improve over what it's been of late with the recent return of key reserve Doug McDermott. On top of that, they will facing a Minnesota team that has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves are giving up 109.8 ppg on the road and come in having allowed 100+ points in each of their last 9.

While Minnesota isn't playing much defense, they are getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they are scoring 103.9 ppg. Chicago is a decent defensive team, but are trending in the wrong direction. They are allowing 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and have given up 100+ points in 5 of their last 6.

OVER is 33-18 in the Timberwolves last 51 road games, 16-4 in their last 20 non-conference road games and 9-1 in their last 10 road games after giving up 60 or more points in the 1st half of their last game. Take the OVER!