5* NBA Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs UNDER 

I love the value here with the UNDER on the total for Game 4 between the Celtics and Cavs. Each of the first 3 games in the series have all finished UNDER the mark set by the books and I think this has the potential to be the lowest scoring of them all. 

Cleveland's blowout win in Game 3 wasn't a huge shocker. Boston hasn't been great on the road this postseason and the Cavs were basically in a do-or-die situation already down 0-2 in the series. I really like the adjustments Cleveland made on the defensive side of the ball, as well as the all-out effort from James. They have no choice but to come out with that same intensity, as this one is just as important as the last. 

The key here is that we should get a much more focused and energized Boston team. They are going to make their adjustments and while the shots might not fall like they do at home, they can still make a game of this with their defensive effort and I expect them to do just that. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams failed to reach 95 in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Playoffs Total NO-BRAINER on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 

I like the value here with UNDER in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Each of the first two games finished below the total set by the books. I'm expecting another low-scoring contest with Cleveland's backs against the wall. 

The Cavs are down 0-2 and are in a do-or-die scenario. That means we are going to get the very best Cleveland has to offer on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, Boston's offense hasn't been nearly as efficient on the road as it has at home in the postseason. 

I also don't see Cleveland going off here. The Celtics have put together a great game-plan on how to defend the Cavs. They held them to 83 in Game 1 with a sub-par game from James and still held them to 94 in Game 2 with LeBron going off for 42 points and recording a triple-double. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 points in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Playoffs 'Rockets/Warriors' Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER

You can check my free pick for who I would lean towards for the spread, but I believe the real value in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals is with the total. I think the books have set the bar way too high for this one. 

All the media talks about is the star power both of these teams have and how great both sides are on the offensive end of the floor. What people don't realize is just how good these two teams are defensively. These two are ranked 1-2 in defensive efficiency in the postseason and there's no question that both are going to be locked in on that side of the ball. 

UNDER is 12-1 this season in Rockets' games when they are listed anywhere from +3 to -3 on the spread. UNDER is also 5-1 in Houston's last 6 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. UNDER is 21-8-1 in the Warriors last 30 after giving up 100 or more in their previous game and 5-1 in their last 6 on the road. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Cavs UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Raptors and Cavs on Monday. After flying over the total in the first two games in Toronto, the two teams combined for just 208 points and finished well below the mark of 214 in Game 3. The deeper the series goes the better the defense gets for both sides, as they know what the other team is trying to do offensively. 

Throw in this being a big letdown spot for Cleveland with a commanding 3-0 lead and how big this game is for the Raptors, I think we are going to see the lowest-scoring game of the series so far. UNDER is now 5-1 in the Cavs last 6 at home and 5-2 in the Raptors last 7 away from home. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the 76ers and Celtics. While the first two games of the series have went OVER, the scoring did drop off quite a bit from Game 1 to Game 2. After combining for 118 in Game 1, the two combined for just 111 in Game 2. I look for another drop in scoring here in Game 3. Boston hasn't been nearly as efficient offensively on the road. They scored just 92, 102 and 86 in their 3 games at Milwaukee in the first round. 

The other big key here is we are going to get everything the 76ers have on the defensive end with the series on the line down 0-2. They also aren't going to take their foot off the gas after blowing that 22 points lead in Game 2. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 points in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Jazz/Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Game 2 between the Rockets and Jazz. Game 1 ended up just finishing below the total at 206 points and that was with the Jazz shooting 50% from the field and the Rockets connecting on 17 3-pointers. Houston ended up winning the game by 14 points (110-96). 

I think we are going to see a much lower-scoring Game 2. Utah is going to lay it all on the line here to try and salvage a split before returning home for Game 3 and simply didn't play up their standards defensively in Game 1. As for the Rockets, everyone pays close attention to their offense, but this is a really good defensive team and I expect them to be a lot better here in Game 2. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Raptors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 1 between the Raptors and Cavs. I know these two teams have a lot of offensive fire-power, but this total is way too high for these two teams. Cleveland simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power it's had in the past and really have to rely on their defense to win. I also think we are seeing an inflated total here, as a lot of people think the Cavs won't show up after playing a Game 7 just 2 days ago, but I expect this team to come out ready to play. 

I actually think Cleveland matches up a lot better with Toronto than they did the Pacers. With that said the Raptors are a strong team and really turned up the defensive intensity over the final 3 games of their series with Washington. I expect an all-out effort defensively from Toronto in this one, as they are well aware of how critical these first two games at home are. 

UNDER is 22-10 in the Cavs last 32 games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and UNDER is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Sixers/Celtics OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Monday's Game 1 action between the 76ers and Celtics. Boston's defense was the difference down the stretch of their first round series against the Bucks, but this 76ers offensive attack is a whole different beast. On top of that, it's only human nature for the Celtics to suffer a bit of a letdown here after playing in a win-or-go-home Game 7 just two days ago. That should show up a lot more on the defensive side of the ball. 

Keep in mind that Philadelphia went up against a pretty strong Heat defense in their first round series and Miami couldn't keep them in check. The 76ers eclipsed 100 points in all 5 games, despite shooting under 43% in 3 of the 5 games. Philadelphia's tempo and ability to hit from long-range will be really hard for the Celtics to contain, especially with the 76ers being extremely well rested, as they last played almost a week ago (4/24). I look for both teams to eclipse the 100-point mark, making this an easy play for me. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Jazz/Rockets OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Rockets hosting the Jazz in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. I just think the total here has been set way too low given how explosive the Rockets are on offense. Houston wasn't on their game early in their series against the Timberwolves, but they finished off Minnesota by scoring 119 and 124 in the final 2 games. Note they had 119 on the road in Game 4 despite shooting 43.5% from the field. 

I think a lot of their struggles early had to do with them coasting down the stretch run of the regular-season. The Rockets are locked in and are going to be fresh off a full 3 days of rest. I just don't see the Jazz putting up much of a fight defensively in Game 1, as they just laid it all on the line in their series against OKC, which just ended on Friday. At the same time Utah's offense doesn't get near the respect it deserves. I see this one finishing a lot close to 220 than 200. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Thunder OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Game 5 between the Thunder and Jazz. Most times the deeper a series gets the more likely I'm to lean to the UNDER, but this is an exception. These two teams have went OVER the mark in 3 of the 4 games so far this series with the lowest combined total being 197. Each of the other 3 games all seen at least 209 points and I think we easily get to 210 in this one. 

The reason we are find value is the Jazz are viewed as a great defensive team, but they have went OVER in 11 of their last 15 games, as they are a much better offensive team than they get credit for. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Celtics UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's matchup between the Celtics and Bucks. The series is tied up at 2-2, as each team held serve on their home court. This is a massive game for both sides, as it's now a best of 3 series and whoever takes Game 5 has a huge edge. Needless to say the defensive intensity will be taken up another notch tonight.

You also have to factor in that this is now the 5th game between these two teams in the last 10 days. Both teams are extremely familiar with each other's gamelans and the deeper we get into a series the more of an edge it is for the defenses. Look for both teams to struggle to get going offensively in this one. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Game 3 of the Cavs/Pacers series. The first two games of the series have been extremely low-scoring. The two combined for just 178 points in Game 1 with a total of 212.5 and 197 in Game 2 with a total of 213. The books have made quite the adjustment for Game 3 with a total almost 5-points lower. 

I just think tonight will be the night that these two light it up. The Pacers have really had their way with Cleveland's defense. The shot 46% from the field in Game 1 and 53% in Game 2. The Cavs defense doesn't figure to be as good on the road, while Indiana should be expected to shoot better at home. As for the Cavs offense, the role players simply can't play as poorly as they have in the first two games. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks/Celtics UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's early NBA playoff action that has the Celtics hosting the Bucks. A lot of people are writing off Boston after the injury to Kyrie Irving. While that almost certainly put an end to any hopes they had of making the NBA Finals, they still have more than enough talent to win a series or two. 

One thing that Boston will have to do without Irving is rely even more on their defense, as they aren't going to get as many easy looks offensively. I think it's going to be difficult for both teams to score here and don't see either side getting to 100 points. That makes this a pretty easy call with the total north of 200. 

UNDER is 7-2-1 in the Bucks last 10 conference quarterfinal matchups and 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 when playing in the first round of the postseason. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Spurs/Warriors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Western Conference series opener between the Spurs and Warriors. While Golden State is the heavy favorite in the series despite Steph Curry being sidelined, there's no question that they aren't the same offensive juggernaut without him. 

San Antonio knows they have no chance of beating the Warriors in a shootout, even without Curry, and I look for Popovich and the Spurs to try and slow down the tempo as much as possible to keep Golden State out of a rhythm. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points and this thing finished somewhere in the low 190s. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Jazz UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's huge showdown between the Jazz and Blazers. While both teams have already secured a spot in the playoffs, the No. 3 seed and home court in the first round will be on the line in this game. I expect a playoff-like atmosphere and as a result a much lower-scoring game than the books are expecting with this total. 

Utah has really been locked in defensively down the stretch. The Jazz just held the Warriors to 79 points in their last game and have held 7 of their last 8 opponents under the century mark. They figure to have a good shot at keeping the Blazers under that mark, as Portland's offense has been out of sync here of late. While the offense might not be there, the Blazers should bring their 'A' game defensively at home. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors/Jazz UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Warriors. Utah has clinched a playoff spot, but there's still a lot at stake. With a win over Golden State tonight, the Jazz will have a chance to overtake the Blazers for the No. 3 seed when they visit Portland tomorrow. Needless to say I think we get a great effort here from Utah, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

As for the Warriors, they have nothing to play for and are just going through the motions right now. With Curry already out with an injury, Golden State isn't going to push any of their stars in these last couple meaningless regular season games. With that said, I do expect whoever plays for the Warriors to compete and that should be all we need here to keep this well below the mark set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Suns OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Warriors visiting the Suns. Golden State has nothing to play for down the stretch, as they are locked into the No. 2 seed in the west. It's really shown of late on the defensive side of the ball, as the Warriors have given up 126 in each of their last 2 games, allowing the Pacers to shoot 53.8% from the field on Thursday and the Pelicans to shoot 56.3% yesterday. 

The offense for the Warriors has been much better of late and they should have no problem putting up a big number here against a horrible Suns defense. Phoenix comes in giving up 113.4 ppg and I wouldn't be shocked if Golden State got to 130 in this one. OVER is 6-1 in the Warriors last 7 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 5-1 in the Suns last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets vs Bulls UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Bulls hosting the Nets. These two bottom feeders have absolutely zero to play for and I think it will be hard for both sides to get up for this game, as these two teams will turn around and play each other again on Monday. 

Clearly these are two of the least talented teams in the league and both sides have key players out with injury. They last played in late February and the two teams combined for a mere 191 points. I would expect a little more offense this time around, but with the total where it's at, this is simply too good of a price to pass up. 

UNDER is 5-0 in the Bulls last 5 vs a team with a losing record and a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Warriors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Pacers hosting the Warriors. Golden State is locked into the No. 2 seed in the west, while Indiana is sitting 5th in the east, two games back of the Cavs and 76ers and 3.5 ahead of the Heat. There's just not a lot to play for here for either side, but I do think both teams are trying to stay in good form for the playoffs. 

Golden State's continues to play without Steph Curry and simply aren't as explosive offensively without him on on the court. Their highest point total in their last 8 games is 117 points and that was at home against the Suns. Indiana hasn't allowed more than 107 in their last 8. I think both teams are also going to limit their star players minutes, which will really make it tough for them to eclipse this number. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Pacers last 29 non-conference games and 13-4 in their last 17 off a road loss. UNDER is also 21-7 in the Warriors last 28 after giving up 100+ points and 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs a good home team that's won 60% or more of their games at home. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DESTROYER on Pistons/Sixers OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Pistons hosting the 76ers. Philadelphia is really clicking on the offensive side of the ball right now and haven't missed a beat since Embiid went down with an injury. The 76ers put up 121 points in yesterday's 26-point blowout win over the Nets. Philadelphia has now scored 118 or more points in 7 of their last 8 games. 

Detroit's playoff hopes are hanging on by a threat. While it's highly unlikely they can make up the ground to get into the postseason, I don't see this team throwing in the towel until they are officially eliminated. Look for the Pistons to continue their offensive surge, as they come in averaging 111 ppg over their last 5. 

These two last played in Philadelphia back on Jan. 5th, which the 76ers won 114-78. That's worth noting, as the OVER is 10-2 in the Pistons last 12 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Thunder UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Thunder hosting the Warriors. These two teams don't like each other and most of it stems from Durant leaving OKC to team up with the Warriors. I'm expecting a big time effort from both sides, which in turn should keep this game well under the total set here by the books. 

While Golden State is locked into the No. 2 seed in the west, there's a sense of urgency with the Warrior to start playing better going into the playoffs. At the same time, they aren't as prolific offensively without Curry and could struggle to get the offense rolling against a good OKC defense. As for the Thunder, they really need a win here. While Oklahoma City currently sits 5th in the West, they are just 2.5-games ahead of 9th place Denver. Most importantly, they don't want to fall back into the 7th or 8th spots and have to face Golden State or Houston in the first round. 

UNDER is 11-5 in the Warriors last 16 games overall and 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 overall and 13-3 in their last 16 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bulls/Magic UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action that has the Bulls visiting the Magic. Both of these teams clearly have no interest in winning down the stretch and the offensive output has been atrocious for both sides. Chicago is averaging just 96 ppg over their last 5 and haven't score more than 105 in each of their last 6. It's been just as ugly offensively for the Magic, who are averaging just 95.2 ppg over their last 5 and haven't scored more than 105 in each of their last 6. 

The reason we are seeing such a high total is these two haven't been the best on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch, but I think if anything that's creating the value here, as there's just not enough offensive fire-power on either side for the total to be this high. 

UNDER is 14-6 in the Magic's last 20 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. UNDER is also 12-4 in their last 16 when playing with double-revenge and a perfect 8-0 in the Bulls last 8 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Jazz OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Celtics. These are two strong defensive teams, but I just feel the number has been adjusted too much here because of all the injuries for Boston. The thing is the Celtics are a deeper team than they get credit for and have scored 100+ in each of their last 4 games. 

Utah just held the Warriors to 91 points in their last game, but that was against a Golden State team that was missing all their star players. Prior to that the Jazz had given up 124 to the Spurs and 112 to the Mavs. At the same time, Utah has scored 110 in each of their last 3 games.

I just think the total is too low here. OVER is 7-1-1 in the Celtics last 9 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. OVER is also 8-2 in Utah's last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies hosting the Blazers. This is a very low total for a game involving the Blazers, who have really been an offensive force for the last month and a half. You have to go back to a Feb. 11 game at home against the Jazz to find the last time Portland failed to reach 100 points in a game. 

They have gone under in each of their last two games, but keep in mind those were both against teams they were competing against for playoff spots in the Thunder and Pelicans. The most recent was last night's game at New Orleans. The key here is I don't see the Blazers being 100% locked in on the defensive side of the ball in this one. Not only are they going to be dealing with tired legs, playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 nights, but they aren't going to feel like they have to play their best to beat a team like Memphis. 

The Grizzlies aren't a great offensive team, but did just put up 101 in a shocking win at Minnesota and have eclipsed the century mark in 6 of their last 8 games. OVER is 14-3 in the Blazers last 17 after attempting 90+ shots in 2 straight games and 6-1 when playing on no rest after the starters logged 160+ minutes. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on T-Wolves/Hawks OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Timberwolves hosting the Hawks. Last time out we saw Minnesota suffer a shocking 93-101 home loss to the Grizzlies as a 13-point favorite. The offense was to blame for the defeat, as there's no excuse for scoring 93 points against a tanking Memphis team. The shots simply weren't falling for Minnesota, who hit on just 41.8% of their attempts. 

That snapped a streak of 9 straight games where the Timberwolves had scored at least 100 points. I think we see a big bounce back performance from Minnesota offensively in this one. Atlanta is in full on tank mode and I just don't see the Hawks being interested at all at playing defense in this game. They are coming off two much bigger games at Golden State and Houston and will be playing the final game of a 6-game road trip. Atlanta allowed 118 to the Rockets in their last game and have allowed 118 or more in 5 of their last 8 games. 

OVER is 29-16 in the Timberwolves last 45 home games with a total set between 210 and 219.5, 21-9 in their last 30 off an upset loss as a favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 off a home loss. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavs/Kings OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action that has a couple of bottom feeders in the Mavs and Kings facing off in Sacramento. There's zero reason for either of these teams to get up for this game and that should result in very little defense being played by either side. 

That would be nothing new for the Mavs, who come in giving up 114.4 ppg over their last 5. The Kings have gone UNDER in 3 straight and 4 of 5, but I see these two having no problem going over the small mark set by the books in this one. These two teams last played in February and combined for 223 points with a total of 205.5. I think we see a similar output here, as this flies over the number. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER  on Nuggets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Nuggets. After scoring 135 or more in back-to-back games, the Nuggets managed just 108 in their most recent game and I look for them to struggle to put up a big number here on the road against a 76ers team that is only giving up 103.1 ppg at home. 

I also don't see Philadelphia putting up a big number, as we should get a max effort here defensively from the Nuggets, who simply can't afford a loss given their current standings in the Western Conference playoff race and they should have some fresh legs having had the last 2 days off. 

Adding to all of this is a couple of great systems. UNDER is 46-13 (78%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 220 or more with one team having won at least 2 straight and the opponent having won 3 or more games. UNDER is also 41-13 (76%) when you have a total of 210 or more in the month of March with the home team working on a 4 or more game winning streak. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Heat UNDER

I like the value with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Pacers hosting the Heat. This is a big game for both teams, as each is trying to position themselves for the postseason. Indiana is just a 1/2-game back of the 76ers for the No. 4 spot, while the Heat are just a 1/2-game ahead of the Bucks for the 8th and final spot. I expect a big effort from both sides on the defensive end and for this to go well below the number set by the books. 

UNDER is 18-8 in the Heat's last 26 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 7-0 in the Pacers last 7 home games and 10-1 in their last 11 games vs a team from the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs/Bucks OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Spurs visiting the Bucks. The OVER has cashed in each of Milwaukee's last 7 games. Every one of those games saw a combined score of at least 123. I know the Spurs are a great defensive team, but they did just allow 120 at home to the Jazz in their last game, which saw a combined score of 244. I just think there's too much value here to pass up with this total sitting where it is. 

OVER is 12-2 in the Bucks last 14 games after playing two straight games with a combined score of 215 or more and 10-1 in their last 11 after going OVER the total in 4 or more consecutive games. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wolves UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Timberwolves. Both teams have put up some big numbers of late. Minnesota has scored 120+ in each of their last 2 games, while Philadelphia has scored 118 or more in 4 of their last 5. I believe we are seeing an inflated number because of this and there's simply too much value to pass up. 

UNDER is 14-4 in the 76ers last 18 games against an above average, but not elite team, that's won between 51% and 60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 10-1 in Philadelphia's last 11 games in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110 or more ppg. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 40-11 (78%) in the month of March when you have a team on at least a 4-game winning streak and a total at or above 210 points. 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Nets hosting the Hornets. While Charlotte managed just 94 points in their last game at the 76ers, this is a team that had been rolling offensively before that contest. The Hornets were averaging 115.3 ppg over their previous 7 games. I think they have no problem here getting back on track offensively against the Nets, who have allowed 111 or more points in 9 of their last 10 games. 

Brooklyn should also be in store for a big game offensively. The Hornets have allowed at least 108 points in each of their last 7 games, and have given up 115 or more in 6 of those 7. Brooklyn has scored 114 or more in 3 straight games and keep mind they put up 125 at Charlotte earlier this month (3/8) in a game that saw a combined 236 points. While the books have adjusted some (total was 217 in the previous meeting), I think these two fly over the number again. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Blazers OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's showdown between the Rockets and Blazers. These are the two hottest teams in the NBA right now. Houston has won 5 straight and are 22-1 in their last 23 games, while Portland enters on a 13-game winning streak. 

While both are better defensively than they get credit for, I just think there's too much offensive fire-power for them to not reach at least 220 points. Houston is averaging 113.5 ppg on the season and the Blazers are scoring 115 ppg over their last 5. These two teams have played twice already this season. They combined for 141 in the first meeting at Portland and 133 in the matchup at Houston. 

OVER is 18-4 in the Blazers last 22 games in the 2nd half of the season vs elite teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game. OVER is also 15-5 in their last 20 in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110+ ppg. OVER is also 23-9 in the Rockets last 32 games vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies/Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies visiting the Nets. While Brooklyn is a team built to go over the total with a respectable offense and bad defense, Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league and come in averaging a mere 97.8 ppg on the season. 

The Grizzlies were able to snap a 19-game losing streak in their last game and did so by limiting the Nuggets to just 94 points. That's now two straight games where they have really played well defensively. The held the Bulls to just 43.7% shooting in their previous game. I look for another strong effort here, as they will try to snap a 14-game road losing streak. Note these two teams combined for a whopping 186 points in their only previous meeting this season. 

Brooklyn also won their last game and that's important to note, as the UNDER is 12-2 in the NEts last 14 home games after a win. UNDER is also 12-1 in the Grizzlies last 13 games with a total set between 210 and 219.5. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Nets. These two division rivals have a history of playing lower scoring games than what the books expect. The UNDER is 11-3-2 in the last 16 meetings and 5-1-1 in the last 7 games played in Philadelphia. 

With how well the 76ers are playing overall an especially at home, there's a good chance this gets out of hand and blowouts typically aren't all that high-scoring. You really need both teams to put up a lot of points to go OVER a mark like this. The Nets just aren't clicking offensively right now, as they are shooting just 43.7% from the field in their last 5 and only average 99.7 ppg vs division opponents. 

UNDER is 11-2 in Philadelphia's last 13 home games when playing against a bad team like the Nets, who have won between 25% to 40% of their games. UNDER is also 22-9 in Brooklyn's last 31 after 3 straight games with a combined score of 215 or more and 17-7 in their last 24 when revenging a home loss of 10 or more points. 

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs OVER

I like the value with the OVER in Monday's NBA action that has the Rockets hosting the Spurs. Houston is coming off a couple of sub-par offensive showings in their last two games to close out a 4-game road trip, but still managed to score 105 in both of those games. They also played their last game without James Harden. With Harden expected back in the lineup tonight, I think we see the Rockets return to form and put up a big number here on a Spurs team that is struggling.

San Antonio has lost 4 of 5 and are just 2-8 in their last 10 games. They are giving up 110 ppg over their last 5. They did score just 94 in their last game against OKC, but had scored 100 or more in each of their previous 7 games. I think they get to at least the century mark here, which should push this well over the mark. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Magic UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Clippers hosting the Magic. While the Clippers have scored 116 or more in 4 straight games, I think we could see a much slower pace for LA tonight. The Clippers playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after laying it all on the line at home last night against LeBron James and the Cavs. A game they won by 14. 

This is now a prime letdown spot for Los Angeles against a bottom feeder like the Magic. Orlando is a complete mess right now and the offense has really struggled of late. The Magic have failed to score 90 twice in their last 3 games. The key here is they have played some decent defense of late, as they are only allowing 100.4 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDER is 18-8 in the Magic's last 26 non-conference games and 10-1 in the Clippers last 11 home games off an upset win as a dog. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Lakers UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Lakers hosting the Magic. While these two teams have played in a lot of high-scoring games of late, both come in off a poor offensive showing. Orlando scored just 80 points and shot a mere 34.1% from the field in their last game at Utah, while LA scored just 103 and shot 39.5% from the field in their last game against the Blazers. 

UNDER is 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 games vs a team with a losing record and 11-2 in their last 13 vs the Western Conference. UNDER is also 15-3 in the last 18 meetings between these two teams when they face off in LA. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Nuggets visiting the Mavericks. Denver comes in scorching hot on the offensive side of the ball. They have scored 104  or more points in 14 straight games and have hit or eclipsed 110 points in 11 of those 14 games. They are averaging 118 ppg over their last 5. 

Dallas isn't a great offensive team, but are in good form, averaging 107 ppg over their last 4. I think they hit that mark and then some. As good as the Nuggets have been offensively, they have been just as bad defensively. Denver has given up 100+ in 14 straight and have allowed 12 of their last 13 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. 

OVER is 21-8 in the Mavs last 29 home games after giving up 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 5-0 in their last 5 at home. OVER is also 14-4 in the Nuggets last 18 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games and 20-9 in their last 29 off 2 or more consecutive wins. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Suns/Heat OVER

I'm recommending a play on the OVER in Monday's NBA action that has the Suns visiting the Heat. In Phoenix's 6 games since the All-Star break they rank 1st in the league in pace of play and I think that up-tempo brand of basketball will help push this well over the mark. The Suns have scored 112.5 ppg in those 6 games since the break. As good as the offense has been, the defense has been equally bad, which explains why they are just 1-5 SU despite the offensive fire-works. Phoenix is giving up 116.3 ppg during this stretch. 

Miami is known more as a defensive team, but are just two games removed from allowing 131 to the Lakers on their home floor. They are also trending up offensively right now, as they have scored 100+ in 7 straight games and should have zero problem eclipsing that mark against this Suns defense, which might be lacking energy off that crushing last second loss to the Hawks yesterday. 

OVER is 8-3 in the Heat's last 11 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 games vs a team from the Western Conference. OVER is also 11-2 in the Suns last 13 road games when playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and 7-0 in their last 7 when their starting 5 logged more than 160 minutes the previous day. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bucks UNDER

I think we are going to see a high-intensity game here on Sunday with the Bucks and 76ers facing off in Milwaukee. Both of these teams are trying to climb up the ranks in the Eastern Conference and I expect both to be highly motivated for a win. 

Philadelphia comes in playing their best basketball of the season, as they are 9-2 in their last 11 games. The 76ers will be motivated to keep that going. As for the Bucks, they come in having lost 4 straight and will be desperate for a win here. Note the UNDER has cashed in each of Philadelphia's last 4 games and each of Milwaukee's last 3 contests. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play based off the Wizards recent struggles. The UNDER is 142-81 (64%) over the last 5 seasons in the month of March when you have a total greater than 200 in a game that involves a team that's lost 3 or more straight games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacers UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Wizards hosting the Pacers. Just 2-games separate these two teams in the Eastern Conference playoff race and I think both sides will be highly motivated here to get a win. 

Indiana snapped a short 2-game skid with an impressive 103-96 win at Milwaukee in their last game and should be motivated here to finish up their road trip with a .500 record at 2-2. As for Washington, they are looking to bounce back from back-to-back home losses to the Warriors and Raptors. 

It's also worth noting the UNDER has been a really strong play of late in Wizards' games. In fact, the UNDER has cashed in each of Washington's last 4 games. The Pacers have also played to the UNDER in each of their last 2 games and is 9-2-1 in Indiana's last 12 road games and 5-0-1 in their last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Warriors/Hawks OVER

I recommending playing the OVER in Friday's NBA action that has the Hawks hosting the Warriors. We can pretty much bank on Golden State putting up a big number here offensively. The Warriors haven't scored fewer than 105 points in 11 straight games and are averaging 119.4 ppg over their last 5. Atlanta doesn't have the talent or scheme defensively to slow them down. 

The key here is I don't think we are going to see Golden State bring the defensive intensity against an inferior opponent in what's the final game of a 3-game road trip and a nice 3-day break looming after this contest. I think we get a very similar type of game to the Warriors recent road game against the Knicks, where they won 125-111. 

OVER is 6-2-1 in the Warriors last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. It's also 13-4 in the Hawks last 17 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs a top tier team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Nets UNDER

I like the value in the UNDER for Thursday's NBA action that has two of the league's worst going at it in the Kings and Nets. These are two of the worst offenses in the league. The Kings rank dead last in offensive efficiency and the Nets are far behind at 26th. Note they played once already this season and combined for a mere 203 points in a 104-99 Sacramento win at Brooklyn. I'm expecting a similar outcome here. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Kings last 11 games vs the Eastern Conference and 12-3 in their last 15 after allowing 105 or more points in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 6-2 in the Nets last 8 vs a team with a losing record, 20-8 in their last 28 off a SU loss and 12-4 in their last 16 when revenging a home loss to an opponent. 

Adding to this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 46-18 (72%) going all the way back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 where you have a bad team (Win pct. 25% to 40%) off a road loss by 10 or more (Kings) and are playing another team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers OVER 

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Hawks hosting the Pacers. These two teams faced off last Friday in the first game out of the break for both sides and the two teams combined for 209 points with Atlanta mustering a mere 93 points. 

The key here to this one being even higher scoring is that the Hawks should be more of a threat offensively at home, as the Pacers are not the same team defensively on the road. On the flip side of this, we should see a similar offensive outburst from Indiana, as Atlanta is equally bad on the defensive end at home as they are on the road. 

OVER is 5-1 in the Hawks last 6 off a loss by 10 or more and 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's late night NBA action between the Rockets and Nuggets. Houston is a team the public absolutely loves to back the OVER because of their offensive fire-power. What people overlook with all the points the Rockets put up is how well they are playing defensively. Houston ranks in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency and have allowed 108 or fewer points in 8 of their last 9, with 6 of those being 102 points or less. 

A big key here is that the Rockets will be playing without Eric Gordon, who is 3rd on the team in scoring at 18.5 ppg and primarily has been their biggest spark off the bench. I think that disrupts the rhythm enough to keep Houston from putting up a big number here. 

This will surprise a lot of people, but the UNDER is 11-2 in the Rockets last 13 games against other teams from the west. It's also 10-4 in their last 14 road games and 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has division rivals Boston and New York going head-to-head at Madison Square Garden. The Celtics returned from the All-Star break with a 110-98 win at Detroit. Their defense held the Pistons to just 43.5% shooting and my money is on another big effort on the defensive side of the ball tonight.

New York put up 120 in a win over the Magic in their last game, but that's nothing to get excited about. This is still a very limited Knicks offense without Porzingis and last time they faced the Celtics they managed just 73 points. Adding to this is the fact that each of the last 4 meetings in the series have seen 204 or fewer combined points with all 3 meetings this seasons failing to eclipse the 200 mark. Take the UNDER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/76ers UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Bulls hosting the 76ers. Chicago's offense simply isn't as potent following the trade of Mirotic and they went into the break averaging just 101 ppg over their last 5. Philadelphia on the other hand really got their defense going in the final games before the break, as they allowed just 95.2 ppg over their last 5, while holding opponents to just 41.3% from the field. 

I think that combination will be more than enough to keep this below the mark set by the books. It also helps the game is being played in Chicago, as we should get a big effort here from the Bulls defensively at home.

It's also worth noting the Bulls went into the All-Star break having failed to cover the spread in each of their final 3 games. That's important, because the UNDER is 23-8 in Chicago's last 31 games after failing to cover 3 or more games in a row. UNDER is also 13-4 in the Bulls last 17 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs strong offensive teams that average 106 or more points/game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks OVER

Last time out the Bucks combined with the Magic for 115 points, finishing well over the total posted for that game of 208.5. That snapped a streak of 9-straight games for Milwaukee that had gone UNDER the total. I think we saw a big overreaction from that streak in their game against Orlando, who is awful defensively and not a team the Bucks are going to get up for. I see a very similar scenario here with this game against Atlanta. 

The Hawks are in full on rebuilding mode, and as you might expect for a team that's basically tanking for the future, they aren't great on the road. Atlanta is just 5-22 away from home and a big reason for that is their defense, which gives up 109.3 ppg, while allowing their opponents to shoot 47% from the field. Milwaukee should be able to score at will here. With the All-Star break just around the corner, I don't think we see a great defensive effort here from the Bucks, which should allow the Hawks to provide more than an enough here to push this over the mark. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in today's early action that has the Raptors visiting the Hornets. I think it's hard for NBA teams to get in a flow offensively in these early games on Sunday, especially this late in the season. These two teams combined for 140 points in their previous meeting back in December, which I believe has this total way too high. 

Toronto has been locked in defensively over their current 4-game winning streak. The Raptors have held their opponents to just 92.5 ppg and have held each of their last 3 opponents under 40% from the field. I think there's a good chance they keep it going here against a Hornets team that has shot poorly in each of their last two games and managed just 94 points in their last game against the Jazz. 

UNDER is 5-1 in the Raptors last 6 games off a win and 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 74-39 (66%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total north of 200 where they home team comes in having failed to cover the spread in 3 or more games and are on little rest, playing their 3rd game in a 4 day span. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Jazz visiting the Grizzlies. I know Utah has been putting up some big offensive numbers of late, but I think we could see them struggle to put up a big number here against Memphis. The pace here figures to be  a lot slower than the last few games for the Jazz, plus they have to be a bit fatigued here playing their 4th straight on the road. 

The Grizzlies have decided to sit out arguably their biggest offensive threat in Tyreke Evans until the trade deadline passes. In the 4 games without him the offense hasn't scored more than 102 points and have failed to eclipse 90 in their last 2 games. Memphis has no choice but to slow down the pace without Evans and this isn't a spot where they will look to push it playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Grizzlies last 14 after losing 3 or more straight games, 4-1 in their last 5 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 7-2 in their last 9 home games following a road trip of 7 o more days. UNDER is also 23-8 in the last 31 meetings between these two teams in Memphis. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Raptors/Celtics UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in the total for Tuesday's big Eastern Conference showdown that has Atlantic Division rivals Toronto and Boston facing off. It's no secret that the Celtics are an elite defensive team and we have to believe they will bring their "A" game on that side of the ball against the Raptors, as Boston comes in having allowed just 93.7 ppg in their 11 division games this season. 

So while Toronto comes in averaging 111.4 ppg, there's a good chance they don't come anywhere close to that. The Raptors have been such a good team offensively, people overlook how well they have been playing on the defensive side of the ball. Toronto is only giving up 101.3 ppg at home and have allowed just 99.2 ppg in division games. They are 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Opponents are making just 44.9% of their field goal attempts (6th) and a mere 34.8% of their 3-point shots (4th). As good as Boston is defensively, they are just 24th in scoring at 103.2 ppg and their 44.9% field pct also ranks 24th. Take the UNDER 206! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Celtics OVER 

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Celtics taking on the Blazers. Most will just blindly take the UNDER here due to Kyrie Irving not playing for Boston, but I actually think the books have over-adjusted for this one. 

Boston has scored 100+ in 6 straight games and have shot 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3. Portland is also rolling offensively right now. The Blazers come in off a 25-point loss at Toronto, despite shooting 51% from the field. The second straight game they made more than half their shots. As good as the Celtics are defensively, I don't think we get a great effort from Boston on that side of the ball today. 

OVER is 22-9 in the Celtics last 31 home games after winning 3 of their last 4 and 12-2 in their last 14 home games after scoring 115 or more points in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks Nets UNDER

I love the value here in the UNDER with Sunday's NBA total that has the Bucks visiting the Nets. Both of these teams have seen the majority of their games finish below the mark here of late. The UNDER has chased in 6 straight games for the Bucks and 11 of their last 13 overall. UNDER is 7-2 in the Bucks last 9 games and 14-4 in their last 14 games at home. 

Add in the early start time here and I just don't see these two teams eclipsing the mark set here by the books. Keep in mind both teams have been struggling offensively. Milwaukee followed an 89-point effort at Minnesota with a mere 92-points in their last game against the Knicks. As for Brooklyn, they scored fewer than 100 points in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under NO BRAINER on Pacers UNDER 

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies visiting the Pacers.  Indiana should be able to dictate the tempo here on their home floor and the Pacers play at one of the slower paces in the league. It's big reason why the UNDER is 16-10-1 in their 27 home games this season. 

Memphis has been playing in a number of higher scoring games, but the UNDER has gone 6-1 in the Grizzlies last 7 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Pacers last 9 vs the Western Conference, 8-2-1 in their last 11 after a game where they scored 100+ points and 12-3-1 in their last 16 vs a team that allowed 100+ points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Pelicans UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's total between the Clippers and Pelicans. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NBA at 111.1 ppg, but they simply aren't going to be the same explosive offensive team going forward. The Pelicans lost star big man DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury. Cousins was averaging 25.2 ppg and a team high 2.2 made 3-pointers/game. New Orleans will have to adjust their style and I think it takes some time for the offense to figure it out. 

The Clippers come in having allowed and scored at least 100 points in 13 straight games, which is also creating value with this big total set here. The offense hasn't been as good for LA the last two games and I think we see them struggle to get going here. 

UNDER is 41-14 (75%) when you have a total of 220 to 229.5 where the road team is revenging a loss to a team that scored 100+ points in the previous meeting and is off a road win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks UNDER 

I like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Nuggets hosting the Knicks. Denver has really been struggling offensively here of late. They have scored 105 or fewer points in 7 straight games and have shot 41% or worse from the field 5 times during this stretch. 

While the Knicks aren't a great defensive team, Denver has been struggling against teams who are just as bad on that side of the ball. Add in the fact that over the last 15 games both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace and offensive efficiency and I think we have a game that could struggle to see 200 combined points. 

UNDER is 14-6 in the Nuggets 20 games this season as a home favorite, 15-4 in their last 19 when revenging a loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when playing on a full 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

I think we are getting great value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA total between the Bulls and 76ers. Chicago's a team that normally likes to play at a pretty fast pace, but I think we see a much slower tempo here from the Bulls. Chicago is playing their 3rd straight on the road over a span of just 5 days and are coming off a grueling double-overtime loss to the Pelicans. 

The 76ers are also playing for the 3rd time in 5 days and were on the road last time out at Memphis. A game they blew a late lead in by giving up 31 in the 4th quarter. Head coach Brett Brown called out his star players and I think we get a big effort here from the 76ers. The offense also figures to still be limited with both McConnell and Redick out with injuries. 

UNDER is 34-17 in the Bulls last 51 after 3 straight games in which they scored 105 or more points and 10-1 in the 76ers last 11 home games against a team that's only won between 25% and 40% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rockets OVER

I look for the Rockets and Timberwolves to have no problem eclipsing the mark set here by the books. Only the Warriors rank higher than these two teams in offensive efficiency this season and the Rockets are a team that likes to push the pace and should dictate the tempo here at home, as they will have both James Harden and Chris Paul available. 

While the Rockets have improved defensively this year, they don't figure to be as good on that side of the ball with both Gerald Green and Trevor Ariza not available because of a suspension. It's also worth nothing that last year all 4 meetings saw at least 220 points with both games in Houston combining for at least 141 points. 

OVER is a perfect 8-0 in the Rockets last 8 home games and 9-1 in the Timberwolves last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's afternoon showdown between the Heat and Bulls. Miami plays at one of the slower paces in the league. In fact, only the Spurs and Grizzlies play are playing at a slower tempo this season.

Yesterday the Heat played a defensive battle against the Bucks, where they held Milwaukee to just 79 points and the game finished with a mere 176 points and the total was 203.5. With the Bucks on no rest and playing an afternoon game, I look for them to slow down the tempo even more against the Bulls, as they don't want to get in a transition game with Chicago. 

UNDER is 23-12 in the Heat's last 35 road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 20-7 in their last 27 off a win by 10-points or less. 

We also have a great system in play. UNDER is 32-8 (80%) going all the way back to 1996 when you have a total is greater than or equal to 200 with a home team off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets UNDER

This might seem like a low total given the recent outcomes of both of these teams, but my money in this situation is on the UNDER. These two teams don't like each other and will be facing off for the third time this season. The more familiar two teams get with one another, the harder it becomes to score in the halfcourt. 

Another factor here is I don't think either side has a lot of gas left in the tank. Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in the span of just 4 days. On top of that, we have a rare early start time for a weekday game with the holiday and I think that only makes it harder on the players to come out and be effective offensively. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Nets last 29 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. It's also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 14 off a SU loss and 7-1 in their last 8 home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Celtics visiting the Nets. Boston comes in having won 5 straight and they can credit their defense for their most recent run. The Celtics are allowing just 93.2 ppg over this run and are holding opponents to just 37.5% shooting during this stretch. 

On Wednesday they held the Cavs to just 88 points and last night shut down another elite offense, as they held the Timberwolves to just 84 points. I see no reason for Boston to take their foot off the gas defensively against the Nets, but there's a good chance the offense struggles to get going in this one. 

UNDER is 21-8 in the Celtics last 29 after a game where they held their opponent to 90 or fewer points and 25-14 in their last 39 when listed as a road favorite. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Jazz UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total between the Jazz and Pelicans. Utah comes in off a 104-101 win against the Cavs at home and will be looking to build on that after a really tough stretch. The Jazz are only giving up 95.5 ppg at home this season, as they have held their opponents to just 43.2% shooting from the floor at home. New Orleans isn't exactly playing well, as they just lost two straight at home against the Knicks and Mavs. 

I think we are get a big time effort from both sides defensively here and each side should have some fresh legs having had the lsat 3 days off. UNDER is 18-7 in the Pelicans last 25 road games against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 45-19 in the Jazz last 64 off a close home win by 3 points or less and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 home games when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Bulls OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Raptors visiting the Bulls. Chicago has been a completely different team here over the last few weeks. They have been a much more explosive offensive team, as they have really spaced the floor well and have a number of guys shooting well from the outside. The Bulls comes in averaging 111.2 ppg over their last 5. 

While the offense has been great, the defense is still a work in progress, as they are giving up 108 ppg during this same stretch. Toronto is one of the more explosive teams in the league, as they average 111.2 ppg on the season. I think both sides have a great shot at eclipsing 110, which should have this flying over the mark set by the books. 

We also have a great system in play. The OVER is 41-16 (72%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total off 200 or more in a game that involves a bad team (Winning % 25% - 40%) off an upset loss as a home favorite and are playing a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA total featuring the Spurs and Knicks. I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should based on the fact that San Antonio is coming off a game where they scored just 79 points. Prior to that the Spurs had scored 108 or more in 3 straight games and were fresh off a 119 point outburst in New York. 

OVER is also 24-8 in the Spurs last 32 games following a SU loss and 6-1-1 in the Knicks last 8 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 in their last 6 following a SU win. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER

The simple fact that the Grizzlies just played in a game last night with Golden State that saw 269 combined points and have a total less than 200 tonight says it all. Memphis couldn't have played any better in that game, as they laid it all on the line against the defending champs. They shot 52% from the field and were a ridiculous 15 of 21 (71%) from long distance.

The pace of the game was frantic and I just don't see how they come out with any energy tonight, especially against one of the league's bottom feeders in the Kings. Keep in mind that even with the massive outburst last night, the Grizzlies are still averaging a mere 98.3 ppg this season. They simply let the Warriors dictate the tempo. Memphis on the season ranks dead last in the NBA in pace. The Kings love to play at a slow tempo as well, as they are right behind the Grizzlies at 29th in pace. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR on Nuggets OVER

I look for the 76ers and Nuggets to have little to no problem going OVER the posted total here by the books. Denver features one of the most explosive offenses in the league, especially when they are home. The Nuggets are scoring 111.7 ppg at home, while shooting 49% from the field and 38% from long-distance.

They should have no problem reaching their average at home and I would be shocked if they don't eclipse it. The 76ers are giving up 110.7 ppg on the road and will not have their best defender in Joel Embiid, as he sits this one out to rest. While the 76ers will mis Embiid's scoring, they play at a much faster tempo without him on the floor, as he likes to work a lot of isolations. Denver also isn't a great defensive team, so look for Philadelphia to eclipse 100 points rather easily here. 

Last time out the Nuggets combined for 253 points in their game against the Timberwolves and that sets up a very profitable spot, as the OVER is 10-1 in Denver's last 11 games after a contest with a combined score of 245 or more points. Take the OVER!

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR on Pistons UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's NBA action that has two Central Division rivals going at it. Usually these division games are spread over the season, but that's not the case with these two teams. This will actually be the 4th and final meeting between these two sides this season. That familiarity with one another will give the edge to the defenses. It's also worth noting that each of the last two meetings both saw fewer than 208 points. 

Indiana comes in allowing 106.9 ppg on the season and 107.0 ppg on the road, but are only giving up 101.4 ppg against division opponents. I think they can slow down a struggling Detroit offense that has shot 44% or worse from the field in 9 of their last 11 games. Pistons defense has been playing well of late, as the additions of Reggie Bullock and Anthony Tolliver in the starting lineup have given them a boost on that side. We should also get a big effort here from Detroit, as they will have fresh legs playing only their 2nd game in the last 6 days. 

UNDER is 27-11 in the pacers last 38 against a team with a winning record, 4-1 in their last 5 road games and 5-0 in their last 5 division games. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs a division opponent. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Knicks UNDER

These Christmas NBA games have a strong tendency to go UNDER the totals set by the books, as the intensity level gets turned up a notch on the defensive side of the ball. I think that's exactly what we have here in the first game on the board with the 76ers and Knicks. These are two teams that are better defensively than they get credit for and we should see the offenses struggle here with such an early start time. 

UNDER is 10-1 in the Knicks last 11 home games off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog, UNDER is also 7-3 in the Knicks last 10 home games overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in the 76ers last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Take UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Rockets OVER 

Houston will be without Chris Paul and Clint Cappella tonight and I think it's resulted in some great value here on the OVER in their showdown tonight with the Clippers. The Rockets still have James Harden and are still going to play their same style of jacking up 3-pointers left and right. This team is also use to playing without Paul, so I don't think it's going to affect their scoring output as much as some might think. Keep in mind this is a team that averages 116 ppg at home and will be facing a Clippers team that has been decimated with injuries and just gave up 109 in their last road game against the Spurs. 

Big key here is I don't think the Rockets are going to offer a ton of resistance on the defensive end. Paul is a big spark plug on that side of the ball and Cappella is their best rim protector. Not to mention that Houston likely doesn't want to go all out with their huge showdown against at OKC looming next on Christmas Day. 

OVER is 21-9 in the Clippers last 30 road games when they are playing their 6th or more game in a 10 day span and 22-8 in their last 30 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Nets hosting the Pacers. These two teams have been playing much better defensively here of late.

Brooklyn is allowing 111 ppg on the season, but are only giving up just 105 ppg over their last 5. Indiana is only giving up 103.6 ppg over their last 5. UNDER is 6-1 in the Nets last 7 games and 4-1 in the Pacers last 5.

Indiana has also scored less than 100 in two straight, while Brooklyn is only averaging 96.6 ppg over their last 5. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Sixers OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Friday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Thunder. Philadelphia comes in off an impressive 118-112 road win over the Timberwolves. The 76ers are now averaging 108.6 ppg, while allowing 108.9 ppg. In Philadelphia's last 5 games, the average final combined score has been 223 points. 

OKC has had all kinds of problems offensively, but I don't think this 76ers defense is going to be good enough to slow them down. I also think we don't see the best from the Thunder defensively off that emotional game on Wednesday at the Pacers, where Paul George made his return to Indiana. Look for these two teams to light up the nets tonight on ESPN. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action between the Clippers and Wizards. The Clippers just can't seem to stay healthy. Going into tonight's game they will be without Patrick Beverley, Blake Griffin, Danilo Gallinari and Austin Rivers. They will be taking on a Wizards team that has been playing well defensively, as they are only giving up just 98.8 ppg over their last 5, while also holding their opponents to just 43% from the field. 

As for the Wizards, they are coming off a couple of poor showings offensively. First they only managed 98 on the road against the Nets and then in John Wall's return against Memphis, they only finished with 93. Clippers have held each of their last 2 opponents to 95 or less and really have no choice be to try and slow the game way down to stay competitive. I think these two will be lucky to hit 200. Give me the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Warriors OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Warriors hosting the Mavericks. Golden State is still without Steph Curry and aren't expected to have Draymond Green, Zaza Pachulia or Nick Young for this one. I think those players not being available is playing into this short number on the total. The Warriors still have two prolific scorers in Durant and Thompson. I also think the loss of Green hurts them defensively, especially with Pachulia also out. They will have no choice but to play small. 

Dallas isn't a great offensive team, but a big part of why they don't score a ton is they like to play at a slow pace. They will have no choice here but to play with the Warriors tempo on the road and I think we see a slightly higher scoring output from them here. 

OVER is 13-6 in the Warriors last 19 vs teams from the Western Conference and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 against a bad team like Dallas that has won fewer than 40% of their games. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER

I just don't think the books have set the bar high enough for tonight's total with the Rockets and Hornets. Houston is playing out of their minds right now. The Rockets are 21-4 through their first 25 games and have not lost a game with Chris Paul in the lineup. They are doing it behind an offense that averages 115 ppg, shoots 47% from the field (48% at home) and averages 16 made 3-pointers per game. They should have their way here against the Hornets, who come in allowing 107.4 ppg on the road. 

I think we see Houston eclipse 120 and that would mean all we need out of Charlotte is for them to score a measly 100 points. I think give us more than that. The Hornets are coming off a 116 point showing at OKC on Monday, where they hit 53% from the field. I also think we don't see a big effort here from Houston defensively off a big come from behind win over the Pelicans on Monday and a huge game against the Spurs on deck Friday. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Mavs OVER

Books have set the bar too low for Sunday's total between the Mavs and Timberwolves. Dallas doesn't have great offensive numbers on the season, but are averaging 105.2 ppg over their last 5, which includes a 122-point outburst against the Nuggets. Minnesota's not a good defensive team, as they allow 107 ppg. The Wolves are a good offensive team and are averaging 109 ppg over their last 5. I think these two teams easily hit the 215 mark. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Blazers hosting the Wizards. I just feel like we are getting value here due to Washington coming off an absolutely dreadful offensive showing in a 69-116 loss at Utah. That's a Jazz team that's playing some of their best basketball and they just got back their defensive ace in big man Rudy Gobert. Simply put the Wizards didn't have it last night. I think we see a completely different team take the court tonight off that embarrassing loss. Keep in mind they had scored 100+ without John Wall in each of their previous two games against the 76ers and Pistons and will be up against a Blazers team that is giving up 109.4 ppg over their last 5. While the offense should be better, I think we get another poor showing from the Washington defense, as they play in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and just let Utah shoot 57% from the field last night. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks OVER

I don't think the books have set the total high enough for Saturday's NBA action that has two of the league's worst going at it when the Nets host the Hawks. Neither of these teams are any good defensively and I don't see them giving a big effort on that side given the opponent. Brooklyn comes in allowing a staggering 115.4 ppg at home this season, so while the Hawks only average 102.8 ppg, look for them to eclipse that mark easily. Not that on the season the Nets are allowing teams to score close to 7 points more per game than what they average. Atlanta's defense isn't much better, as they are allowing 108.8 ppg and while the defense isn't any good for Brooklyn, this Nets team can put it in the basket, as they enter averaging 110.1 ppg on the season and a healthy 115 ppg at home. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks OVER

With both of these teams coming off great defensive efforts in their last game, I think it's created some great value here with the total and this one going OVER the mark set by the books. Last time out the Bucks held the Kings to just 87 points, while the Blazers limited the Knicks to just 91. 

I just think there's too much offensive fire-power here. Milwaukee has scored 108 or more in each of their first 3 games on their 4-game road trip, while the Blazers have scored at least 103 in each of their last 3. 

OVER is 9-3 in the Bucks last 12 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team from the Western Conference. OVER is also 5-1 in the Blazers last 6 vs a team with a winning record and 8-3 in their last 11 against the Central Division. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Late Night Total DOMINATOR on Jazz OVER

I like the value here with the total and it going OVER the mark set by the books in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Nuggets. Utah simply isn't the same top tier defensive team without big man Rudy Gobert, who is out with a Tibia injury. At the same time, the Jazz have found a new spark plug offensively in rookie Donovan Mitchell. He's a big reason why Utah is putting up 109.8 ppg over their last 5. 

Denver is an ideal team for a high-scoring game, as they like to get up and down the floor and come in averaging 107.8 ppg on the season and 113.6 ppg over their last 5. At the same time, the Nuggets are not a great defensive team. They are allowing 106.5 ppg overall and 110.2 ppg on the road. 

OVER is 12-3 in Utah's last 15 games over a home win by 10 or more and 15-4 in the Nuggets last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Lakers UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's total between the Lakers and Clippers. These two teams don't like each other and we can expect a big time effort from both sides on the defensive side of the ball. That was certainly the case in the first meeting between these two teams this season, as they combined for an even 200 with a total of 219.5. While the books have adjusted the number quite a bit from that contest, I still think it's way too high. 

The Clippers have really struggled offensively of late. In their last 4 games they have scored fewer than 100 points 3 times, twice failing to reach 90. The lone exception was against a horrible Hawks team, where they had 116. Lakers are giving up 107.1 ppg, but have shown flashes of being a decent defensive team and are currently 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

UNDER is 17-5 in the Clippers last 22 home games off a road win and 10-2 in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Lakers last 5 on the road and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Nets UNDER 

I like the value here with this high total for Sunday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies hosting the Nets. The UNDER has been a great bet with Memphis at home, as it's 8-2 so far this season. A big reason for that is the Grizzlies aren't a great offensive team and even when going up against a bad defense like Brooklyn tend to struggle to score. Memphis is also a great defensive team at home, as they are only giving up 99.3 ppg. The Nets are averaging nearly 4-points less on the road than they are for the season and I look for them to struggle here. 

UNDER is 13-3 in Brooklyn's last 16 games when they come in having scored 105 or more points in 3 straight games. UNDER is also 23-11 in the Grizzlies last 34 as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Jazz UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's non-conference clash between the Bucks and Jazz. Both of these teams are strong defensively and the biggest key here is that neither of these teams like to push the pace. Utah ranks 26th in pace of play and the Bucks are right behind them at 27th. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 97.8 ppg over their last 5 and will be facing a Jazz defense that is only giving up 95.3 ppg at home this season. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Bucks last 11 against a team with a losing record and 12-4-1 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 5-0 in Utah's last 5 when playing a team with a winning record and 9-3 in their last 12 off a straight up win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs UNDER

No team in the NBA plays at a slower pace than San Antonio and when you combine that with how efficient the Spurs are on the defensive side of the ball, you have a perfect recipe for low-scoring games.

The key here is we are getting value with this total due to the Pelicans struggles defensively, as they come in giving up 110.4 ppg. However, New Orleans has been much better defensively against division opponents, as they are only giving up 98.5 ppg. At the same time, the Spurs aren't a great offensive team right now, as they continue to play without Leonard and Parker and come in averaging a lousy 94.6 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 8-2 in the Pelicans last 10 vs a division opponent and 8-3-1 in their last 12 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 28-15 in the Spurs last 33 road games off a home win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Knicks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total between the Knicks and Raptors. These two teams just played last Friday and combined for just 191 points with a total of 217. While the books have adjusted the total for the rematch, I don't think it's near enough, as I think the two teams struggle to get to 200 points. 

Toronto is locked in right now on the defensive side of the ball, as they have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 42% or worse shooting. They also don't mess around when facing a division opponent, as they have held their Atlantic rivals to just 91 ppg this season. New York isn't a great defensive team, but better than they get credit for and are clicking on that side of the ball right now, as they are giving up just 97.6 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDER is 7-3 in the Raptors last 10 division games and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 2 days of rest. UNDER is also 20-7-1 in New York's last 28 against a team from the Eastern Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 vs at team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs UNDER

The books have set the total too high for Friday's showdown between the Spurs and Thunder. Without Kawhi Leonard the Spurs aren't the same efficient offense that we have grown accustomed to and OKC is still in the process of trying to figure out to play together. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency and I just think given how big a game this is, that both teams will bring it defensively. 

Note that the Thunder have scored 94 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games and the Spurs only give up 98.9 ppg on the season. San Antonio has failed to reach 100 in 3 of their last 4 and twice failed to reach 90 points in this stretch. OKC is giving up just 97.1 ppg on the season and a mere 96.3 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 13-3 in Thunder's last 16 road games and 9-2 in their last 11 off a SU win. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Spurs last 5 vs the West and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in San Antonio. Take the UNDER!

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4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Pacers UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Pacers and Pelicans. I look for this one to stay well below the mark set by the books. Indiana comes in off 3 high scoring games on the road, which is certainly playing into this total. However, the UNDER is 3-1 in the Pacer's 4 home games this season.

In their last two home games they held the Spurs to just 94 points and the Kings to 83. New Orleans has two studs, but lacks shooting and have failed to eclipse 100 points in each of their last 4 games. At the same time, the Pelicans have been playing well on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 100.8 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDER is 14-4 in the Pacers last 18 after allowing 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 11-1 in the Pelicans last 12 road games off a road win. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Nets UNDER

With Brooklyn having gone OVER the total in 3 straight games, where all 3 games saw at least 235 combined points and Phoenix having allowed 112 or more points in each of their last 5 games, I think the books have made a big overreaction here with the total for tonight's game and created some big time value on the UNDER. 

Phoenix ranks second in the NBA in pace, but I just don't see how they are going to have the energy to push the ball up and down the floor tonight. The Suns just finished a 5-game road trip that spanned 9 days with yesterday's game at San Antonio. It's hard enough playing on no rest as it is, but this is just brutal. I look for Phoenix to really try to slow things down and that should be more than enough to keep this below the massive mark set by the books.

UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after scoring 105 or more points in 3 straight games. It's also 11-4 in the Suns last 15 when coming off a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action between the Celtics and Hawks. The UNDER is an impressive 6-2 during Boston's 8 game winning streak. The Celtics have held all 8 opponents during this stretch to 94 or fewer points. 

Atlanta is only averaging 102.7 ppg and scoring roughly 5 points fewer than what their opponents have been allowing on the season (107.4 ppg). While the Hawks defense hasn't been great, Boston's not exactly lighting it up offensively. The Celtics are only scoring 102.9 ppg and big reason for that is they rank in the bottom 5 in pace of play. 

They figure to play at an even slower pace than normal tonight, as the Celtics are not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. Atlanta is also playing for the 3rd time in 4 days, so they too won't be looking to get up and down the floor. 

UNDER is 6-1 in the Hawks last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Celtics last 9 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when coming off a win. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Knicks UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's matchup between the Knicks and Pacers. I believe the number here has been inflated due to recent results, as the OVER has cashed in each of the Pacers last two games and each of the last 3 for the Knicks. 

These Sunday games have to be the least popular day for NBA players to play and it often leads to sluggish showings on the offensive side of the ball. That's been the case for both of these teams, as the UNDER is 15-6 in the Knicks last 21 games played on Sunday and 6-2 in the Pacers last 8 on Sunday. 

We also got a great system in play here favoring this one to finish below the mark. UNDER is 44-18 (71%) going back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 where the road team comes in having scored 105 or more points in 2 straight games and is facing an opponent that has had a combined scored of 215 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Spurs UNDER

I don't see Friday's matchup between the Spurs and Hornets reaching 200 points, as I expect both teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. San Antonio has followed up a 4-0 start by dropping their last 4. The most recent being a 92-112 loss to the Warriors at home last night. San Antonio isn't use to stretches like this and know the best way to get back on track is to turn up the defensive pressure. 

Charlotte has won 3 straight and are off a 126-121 win over the Bucks. Head coach Steve Clifford wasn't exactly happy with the victory. He said it was the worst showing on defense the Hornets have had this season. I expect his team to respond with a big time effort. It will help they are catching the Spurs in the second game of a back-to-back. San Antonio has also been struggling offensively here of late, scoring 94 or fewer points in each of their last 4 games. 

Keep in mind these are two teams that rank in the Top 10 on the season in defensive efficiency. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 road games, 5-2-1 in the Spurs last 8 against the Eastern Conference and 6-1 in their last 7 games played on Friday. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Late Night Total DESTROYER on Lakers/Blazers UNDER

One of the things that I think is getting overlooked with this Lakers team early on is their improvements on defense. Last year LA ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency at 110.6. This year they are sitting at 6th at 100.0. I know it's early, but that's a very encouraging sign. 

I think that defense will play a big role in tonight's game against the Blazers, who are going to have tired legs after last night's overtime loss to the Jazz. Their stars in McCollum and Lillard both played more than 40 minutes. 

At the same time, I think Portland still shows up here defensively in a nationally televised game on TNT. I just don't think they have their normal pace offensively. Blazers are another team that's started out much better on the defensive side, as they ranked in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and are in the Top 5 to start out 2017. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total BAILOUT on Clippers UNDER

I think we are getting some value here with the total, as this one has all the signs of a game that is going to stay UNDER the mark set here by the books. Los Angeles is coming off an embarrassing 28-point loss at home the Warriors, where they gave up 141 points to Golden State. 

I expect the Clippers to bounce back in a big way on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind that they came into that game having held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 points with the Blazers 103 the most they had allowed in a single game. 

Dallas might be lucky to break 90, as they are scoring just 90.3 ppg on the road this season. The Mavs also play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Only Chicago and Utah are playing at a slower pace. Add that with the Clippers not being as up-tempo as years past with Chris Paul no longer running the point and there just doesn't figure to be enough possessions to eclipse this mark. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz UNDER

Utah is your ideal NBA team for low-scoring games. The Jazz are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the league, while ranking near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency and near the top in defensive efficiency. As low as this total might seem given today's high-scoring NBA, the average score in Utah's game this season is just 184.1 ppg.

The fact that the Jazz are playing at home is also important to note. Not only do opposing teams tend to struggle away from home, Utah is one of the more difficult places to play because of the thin air. So far this season they are only giving up 88.2 ppg at home. Portland is a good offensive team, but we saw them score just 85 last time out at home against the Raptors. The Blazers are also playing really good defense, limiting opponents to just 98.3 ppg. 

UNDER 5-1-1 in Utah's 7 games this season and 5-2 in Portland's 7 games. All signs point to another low-scoring game here that stays well below the mark set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Pacers UNDER 

This might feel like it's not enough points with how poorly the Cavs have been playing defensively, but I expect Cleveland to tighten things up against one of their Central Division rivals. Another thing is that the Cavs aren't clicking offensively, scoring just 101 ppg over their last 3.

That offense will be put to the test by an Indiana defense that has each of their last two opponents under 95 points. We can bank on a strong effort here by the Pacers against Cleveland, who is the measuring stick for all these other Eastern Conference teams. 

I also don't think we see a fast pace here. Cleveland's the oldest team in the league and their coach has flat out called them out of shape. Indiana on the other hand is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and their 3rd in 4 days. The UNDER is a strong 34-14 in the Pacers last 48 when playing 3 in 4.

We also find a strong system in play. The UNDER is 35-13 (73%) when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 involving a team that's gone under the total by 12 or more points in two consecutive games (Pacers) and are playing a division opponent. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the total in Tuesday's NBA action between the Suns and Nets. I think the books have set the total way too high for this contest. Brooklyn's offense has struggled the past two games, scoring just 86 at New York and 111 at home to the Nuggets. The more telling stat is that the Nets have shot under 42% from the field in 4 straight games. 

Phoenix has been playing much better on defense under interim coach Jay Triano, allowing just 105.7 ppg after giving up 128.7 ppg under Watson. They have also been a lot better at defending the 3-point shot. Offensively the Suns are only scoring 102.5 ppg and a mere 97.5 ppg on the road. I just don't see enough offense here from Phoenix for this to go over this high total. 

UNDER is 5-2-1 in the Nets last 8 against a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 10-4-2 in their last 16 after giving up 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER!