4* Major NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Bulls/Celtics OVER 194
We played on the Over with the Celtics last night as they combined with the Nets to beat the total by 11 points. The Celtics are now 6-1 to the Over their last 7 games, and I'll ride the Over with them again here. Plus, the Bulls are 5-2-1 to the Over in their last 8 games. The Bulls and the Celtics have been an Overs machine whenever they have gotten together. In fact, the Over is a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Boston in this series and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall. Going back 3 seasons, we've seen this matchup go 11-3-2 to the Over, including 8-1 to the Over in Boston. A big key tonight is that Boston is playing without Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace so it will be forced to play small ball. And when the Celtics play small ball, they score a lot more points. That's why the Bulls/Celtics series was such a high scoring one in last year's playoffs when Garnett was sidelined. While Boston is known for being one of the league's better defensive teams, it has struggled in KG's absence. In fact, the Celtics have allowed their opponents to score 102 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games. The Bulls have struggled to score the basketball this season, but they are improving in that area. The Bulls have now scored 101 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games. Lastly, Chicago is 18-5 Over versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. Take the Over.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator of the Week on Celtics/Nets OVER 187
Boston has played to the Over in 5 of its last 6 games as its defense is not the same without Kevin Garnett on the floor. This line opened at 190, and the fact that it has been bet down to where we see it now creates additional value in taking the Over. We only saw 162 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but keep in mind that Harris, Lee, Dooling, Douglas-Roberts and Yi Jianlian missed that game. That means that 66.1 points were missing from the Nets' lineup. With all those guys expected to be on the floor tonight, I expect New Jersey to provide enough of a scoring punch to push this one Over.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Bobcats/Knicks UNDER 199.5
This line opened at 197, but has been bet up to 199.5, and it is holding right there for now as the books are begging for more action on the Over. But the Over isn't justified tonight. These two teams just played in New York on December 20th and we saw only 192 combined points. They played in Charlotte on December 15th and we saw only 181 combined points. Those lines closed at 196 and 197 respectively and the books didn't hesitate to come right back with the same number, knowing the public would be all over the Over after seeing them play high scoring games. Plays Under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games, are 44-16 the last 5 seasons. The average posted total in these games has been 195.3 and the average total score has been 188.2. The Under gets the call here.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Heat UNDER 188.5
I'm expecting a defensive battle in Miami tonight. The Heat have played to the Under in 6 of their last 7 games and I expect this trend to continue against a Celtics team ready to clamp down on the defensive end following a lengthy 3-day layoff. The Under is 12-3-1 in the Celtics' last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 12-4 in the Heat's last 16 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Heat are only allowing 93.2 ppg at home while the Celtics are only giving up 92.2 ppg on the road for a total of 185.4 points. This tells me we are getting a few extra points of value. With both of these teams' preferring to play in the half court, we'll take the Under tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Bailout on Rockets/Lakers UNDER 199.5
The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams and also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings at the Staples Center. While LA has been on a scoring spree lately, we can't lose sight of the fact that it has been playing uptempo teams that don't play much defense (Sacramento, Phoenix, Golden State, Sacramento). Houston has played to the Under in 5 of its last 6 games, failing to reach the century mark in all 5 of those games that went Under. Plus, Plays Under on any team (LA) after 5 or more consecutive overs, a good team outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, are 117-67 since 1996. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Magic/Pacers UNDER 210
The Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in this series in Indiana. The Under is 13-6 in the Magic's last 19 road games and 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss. The Under is also 8-2 in the Pacers' last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Both of these teams are coming off poor performance and I expect both to clamp down on the defensive end tonight. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Lakers UNDER 200
I have found a lot of ammo to support the Under here. The Lakers are 8-0 Under as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score in these games totaling just 190.6 points. The Lakers are also 20-6 Under in Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. The Under is 4-0 in the Mavericks' last 4 road games and 21-10 in their last 31 Sunday games. These two teams combined for just 174 points in the season's first meeting and I expect another highly competitive defensive battle here. I also like the fact that the public is all over the Over. We'll go against the grain and get the cash.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Grizzlies/Pacers UNDER 208
The Pacers have fell short of the century mark in 7 straight games now and it is going to be very difficult for them to get there tonight after leaving it all out on the floor only to come up short in Chicago last night. This matchup has been an Unders machine with 8 of the last 10 games played in Indiana coming in Under the number. Plus, the Under is 7-1 in the Pacers' last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana isn't the same high scoring team this season because of its injury issues. That's why it is 14-6 Under when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season, and we are only seeing a 203.6 combined points scored in these games. We'll bet the Under tonight.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Rockets/Magic UNDER 200.5
Good Unders spot here as Houston put up a lot of points last night and I don't think it can do it again against a Magic team that is very good defensively and will likely be looking ahead to a Christmas game with Boston. The last 9 times these teams have faced off, the final score has been under the 200 mark. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" *Crunch Time Bailout* on Wizards/Clippers OVER 193.5
The Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and I expect this trend to continue tonight. Washington has a very talented offensive lineup and it is starting to show as the Wiz have scored 102 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. Defense is the issue with Washington right now, and during this same stretch it has allowed 102 or more points in 5 of 6 games. The Over is also 25-11 in the Wizards' last 36 vs. the NBA Pacific. Expect Washington's offense to stay sharp as it goes after a much needed win tonight, but also expect its defense to continue to struggle as it is allowing 101.2 ppg. We'll bet the Over.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/76ers UNDER 211.5
Odds makers have set the bar too high here as this is not the same high-scoring Warriors team of a year ago, especially on the road where they have played to the Under in 4 straight while only besting the 100-point mark 1 time during this stretch. Philly is only averaging 91.3 ppg at home on the season and has now played to the Under in 3 straight while failing to score more than 91 points during this stretch. It is worth nothing that the 76ers are 8-3 Under at home this season. Also, Philly is 17-4 Under after playing 2 consecutive home games since the beginning of last season with the average score totaling just 185.7 points. Lastly, the Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia between these two teams. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Nuggets OVER 225.5
We've seen these two teams combine for 232 and 233 points in each of their last two games and I expect another high scoring affair tonight. In fact, the Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver. The Nuggets have been held under the 100-point mark in 3 straight games so they will really look to push the pace in their return home tonight where they are averaging 117.2 ppg. We'll take the Over.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Cavs UNDER 187.5
The public is all over the over, driving this line up from its opening mark of 184. Right away, you have to like the Under here when you consider that plays Under on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in December games, are 24-4 the last 5 seasons (85.7%). You also have to like the fact that Portland is 14-3 Under in road games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons. The Under is also 7-1 in the Trail Blazers' last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. I expect a very physical, defensive battle resulting in the Under coming through for us tonight.

4* NBA Total Dominator on Warriors/Nets UNDER 219

Way too many points tonight for a New Jersey team that is only scoring 88.2 ppg at home on less than 40% shooting and 26.5% shooting from behind the arc. I know the Warriors like to get out and run as evidenced by their 114 ppg against on the year, but the Nets don't have the fire power to keep up with a high-scoring game, and they have now won two out of their last three. I think this means they want to keep up their hot streak to get out of the cellar as the laughing stock of the NBA. I think they slow the pace down to keep this one close so go with the UNDER.

4* Major NBA "Total" Revenger on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 195.5
This line opened at 191 and has been bet all the way up to where we see it now as the public is pounding the Over. I already like the Under at its opening line and this line move has created additional value. Boston is only allowing 90.6 ppg and I can't see a Bucks team that has struggled to score the rock on the road all season (just 93.6 ppg) getting loose for a big night here. Boston went through a little 3-game spell where it forgot how to play defense but since the Celtics have held their last 4 opponents to 90 or fewer points and all 4 of those games were played on the road. Milwaukee is 15-4 Under in road games against Atlantic Division opponents since the beginning of the 2007 season. The average total score in these games has been just 188.2 points. Pound the Under.

3* SMASH on T-Wolves/Raptors UNDER 208
With Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani both listed as questionable for tonight's game, points will be tough to come by for the Raptors. Bosh is suffering from the flu and Bargnani is dealing with a bad ankle. Even if 1 or both are able to go, their effectiveness will be extremely limited due to their conditions. Here's the clincher: Toronto is 8-0 Under in home games versus terrible defensive teams allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average score totaling just 199.4 points. And this trend is a perfect 3-0 this season. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Blazers/Knicks OVER 200
This line opened at 204 and it has been bet all the way down to where we see it now creating solid value on the Over. We've seen the Knicks play 7 straight games where the final score would have come in over this number and I believe that trend continues tonight. Portland is a pretty good defensive team, but it certainly takes a hit on the defensive end after losing Greg Oden. In fact, the Blazers have allowed 106 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Knicks love to push the pace at home where they are scoring 103.9 ppg and allowing 109.1 ppg. NY is 14-3 Over in home games off a home win since the beginning of the 2007 season, with the combined score totaling 215.6 points in these games. Also, NY is 22-6 Over in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins during the same span, with the combined score totaling 215.3 points in these games. We'll take the Over.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Mavs UNDER 204.5
Expect Atlanta to really buckle down on the defensive end tonight after a pair of subpar performances to keep this one Under. In fact, Atlanta is 15-5 Under after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons and 20-6 Under in road games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher since 1996. Plus, with both teams having played last night I don't expect a lot of running and gunning here. Bet the Under.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Raptors/Hawks OVER 211
The Raptors are giving up 112.1 ppg on the road this season and their poor defense gives us a solid Overs opportunity tonight. The Hawks are 6-2 Over at home this season and they'll be hungry to run up the score after being held to just 88 points last game. The last time these two teams faced off, they combined for 228 points and I believe they are good for at least 215 tonight. Plays Over on Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - cold team failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 25-6 the last 5 season. Bet the Over.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Knicks UNDER 227
This matchup has gone Over the total in 8 straight meetings in New York. Both the odds makers and the betting public are very conscious of that. That's why the books have set this number 7.5 points higher than the previously posted high in New York of 219.5 to catch the public as they pound the over tonight. This has created outstanding value in taking the Under, especially since the Suns will be more worried about Cleveland tomorrow night and they will be without spark plug Leandro Barbosa. Plus, Mike D'Antoni knows his former team well. In fact, he knows them well enough to know better than to think he can beat them in a foot race when Phoenix is the superior run and gun team. I don't expect the Knicks to completely take the air out of the ball, but I do look for them to be more selective about when they run, likely doing so when Steve Nash is on the bench so the Suns can't counter as quickly. Of those 8 straight Overs in New York, it is worth noting that, only two have gone over the number we have here, and one of those games was an overtime affair. Bet the Under.

4* Major Sunday NBA "Total" Dominator on Magic/Knicks OVER 205.5
New York plays absolutely no defense at home, allowing 111.2 ppg. With New York controlling the tempo, making this an up and down game, I look for a lot of points to be scored. First off, plays Over on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Orlando) playing on back-to-back days, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season, are 55-25 since 1996. The Over is also 6-1 in the Knicks' last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 5-1 in their last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. With Orlando playing back-to-back, its defense will suffer as well. Bet the Over.

3* SMASH on Cavs/Bobcats UNDER 186
Only 169 total points scored in the first meeting this season and I'm expecting low scoring affair here as plays Under on any team (Bobcats) after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against an opponent after leading in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 29-6 since 1996. This system shows how the line can be inflated based on a teams previous game and that is certainly the case here. We'll take the Under.

5* NBA Total of the Week on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 189
I really think this is a strong Unders opportunity tonight. Philly just played last night in an up and down game and now it must take on a Boston team that hasn't played since Sunday. Boston is one of the premier defensive teams in the league, especially at the Garden where it is only allowing 88.4 ppg. The Celtics should be especially concerned with the defensive end tonight after giving up 105 points to the Knicks last game. These teams have already met once this season and only 179 total points were scored. It is also highly in our favor that the Under is 6-0 in the 76ers' last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-0 in the Celtics' last 6 game after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Also, consider that the Under is 15-3 in the 76ers' last 18 games as an underdog of 11.0 or more points. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Annihilator on Nets/Nuggets UNDER 203
The Nets are awful. They are 0-13 on the season and scoring only 84.9 ppg. The Nets have broke the century mark only once this season and have scored 94 or fewer in the rest of their games, including 85 or fewer in 8 games. The Nets could actually score a few more points, but they know that they don't have the bodies to run and gun with most teams so they have taken the air out of the ball to stay as competitive as possible. That's why the Nets are only giving up 95.1 ppg. Plus, I don't expect Denver to try to really run up the score here when it plays on the road tomorrow night. New Jersey is 8-0 UNDER after 5 or more consecutive losses this season and Denver is 7-0 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the Nets' last 5 road games. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Grizzlies/76ers OVER 194
I think the odds makers have undershot this number when you consider how poorly the Grizzlies have played on the defensive end on the road, allowing 117.3 points per game in 6 road contests. Memphis would prefer to get out and run with its young and talented lineup and an uptempo game is sure to bring out the best in the 76ers offensively. In games against uptempo teams Phoenix and New York, the 76ers scored 115 and 141 points respectively. The Over is 7-1 in the 76ers last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Western Conf Total of the Month on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 199.5
We'll look to take advantage of another solid Unders situation tonight. Both of these veteran teams just played last night so they won't have the legs to make this one a fastbreak affair. Besides, this one is in San Antonio where the Spurs prefer the halfcourt game. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are both listed as doubtful for this game which forces coach Popovich to take the air out of the basketball even more than usual to give his team the best chance to win. Parker and Ginobli are the Spurs' best open court players and without them they won't get much of anything in transition tonight. The Under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 games playing without rest, but here's the clincher: San Antonio is 12-1 Under after a game where they had 2 or less steals over the last 3 seasons, with the average score in these spots totaling just 183.1 points. Without Parker and Ginobli (for much of the night) last night, the Spurs weren't able to come up with many thefts. Same case tonight and that limits transition buckets. Bet the Under.

5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Bucks UNDER 189
The Nets are really hurting for offense right now with all their injuries. They have scored 83 or fewer points in each of their last 5 games and find themselves in a really tough spot tonight having just played last night. Milwaukee has put up some big offensive numbers recently but consider the opponents (New York, Denver, Golden State, Dallas), all teams that like to run and gun. We certainly won't see the Nets push the tempo tonight as they just played last night and they know they can't win that way. We've seen this matchup play to the Under in 3 straight, 10 of the last 14 overall, and 8 of the last 11 in Milwaukee. The Nets have gone Under in 6 straight now I'll ride the Under with them again here.

5* NBA Line Mistake of the Week on Bulls/Kings UNDER 198
Chicago's defense is very strong this season and the books are not taking that into account enough with this line. In fact, the Bulls have held 6 of their 9 opponents to 90 or fewer points and the Under is 7-2 on the Bulls this season as a result. The Kings aren't as strong as the Bulls defensively, but Chicago has struggled on the road this season, scoring only 88 points per in 4 road games. In fact, Chicago is 19-6 Under versus poor defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 46% or better over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this head-to-head. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Crunch Time Bailout on Raptors/Clippers UNDER 206
Can't see this one going over with the amount of players out and the amount of players playing banged up in this one. No Eric Gordon (LA's 2nd leading scorer), Chris Kaman is questionable with a virus and will be lacking energy if he does go. On the Toronto side Turkoglu and Bosh are both banged up among others. Basically, recent results have forced odds makers to set an unrealistic line here. Plays Under on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Raptors) after going over the total by 30 or more points in their last three games, playing on Friday nights, are 76-39 since 1996.

3* NBA "Total" Revenger on Cavs/Heat UNDER 180.5
Miami has played to the Under in 6 straight games and the Cavs have come in Under the total in 6 of their last 7. The Under is the play again here. Cleveland just played last night so tired legs will be an issue. Also, it is going to be very tough for the Cavs to get up for this one after such an emotional win last night over a Magic team that knocked them out of the playoffs. Miami and Cleveland both prefer to play half court hoops and both teams are playing exceptionally well on the defensive end, especially the Heat. Miami has held 5 of its 7 opponents to 89 or fewer points, allowing only 88.6 ppg this season. Meanwhile the Cavs are only allowing 90.2 ppg this season. This matchup has long been an Under machine with the Under going 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Miami and 13-6 in the last 19 meetings overall. The Under is 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 games playing on 1 days rest and 14-2 in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Bucks UNDER 197
We've seen the Under in all 5 of Milwaukee's games this season and I believe we'll see it again here. Denver is coming off an emotionally and physically draining win in Chicago last night and will find it very difficult to get up for this one, especially with the Lakers on deck. The Bucks are averaging only 90.4 ppg and giving up just 85.2. Denver is 14-4 Under when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Blazers/T-Wolves UNDER 190
System Play: Plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (Blazer); excellent free throw shooting team (79% or better) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less turnovers per game) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 turnovers forced per game) are 35-12 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Total of the Month on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 189
Deron Williams is questionable for tonight's game and even if he can go, I don't expect his normal points considering he only scored 5 points against the Knicks weak defense when playing with the back injury a couple nights ago. Boston is only allowing 84.4 ppg this season and it hasn't played since the 7th so I'm expecting continued strong defensive play. Plus, Utah is going through its normal road struggles, scoring only 95.0 ppg on the road. The Under is 13-3-1 in the Celtics' last 17 vs. the NBA Northwest and I look for this trend to continue here. Bet the Under.

4* Major on Warriors/Pacers OVER 221.5
Expect the Warriors and the Pacers to shatter the total tonight. The last 3 times these two teams have gotten together, we've seen at least 237 points put up on the scoreboard. The Warriors are getting torched for 121.5 ppg on the road this season and I expect a Pacers team that has not played since the 6th to be able to run and gun with them tonight. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Indiana and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings overall. Plus, it is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Over.

3* SMASH on Rockets/Mavs OVER 199
Both of these teams prefer to run and gun and with Josh Howard back in the lineup for Dallas I expect the Mavs to be getting out in transition a whole lot more. In Howard's first game back, the Mavs exploded for 129 points. Houston has to run and gun to compete without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. The Rockets have gone over the number in 5 straight games. The Over is 6-0 in Mavericks last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game and 8-1 in Rockets last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll take the Over.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Bulls UNDER 205
Plays under on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, an excellent offensive team scoring 102 or more ppg against an average defensive team allowing 92-98 ppg, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 26-5 the last 5 seasons for an 83.9% win rate. When the road team is off a blowout loss of 20 points or more, the system is 23-4 under since 1996 for an 85.2% win rate. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Annihilator on Wizards/Heat UNDER 186
Washington and Miami just played back on November 4th and we only saw 182 points scored in that game. I expect another low scoring affair tonight. Together, these teams are 11-2 to the under this season and this matchup has been an unders machine with 7 of 9 meetings going under the last 3 seasons, including all 4 meetings in Miami. The Heat have held 4 of their 6 opponents under 90 points and one has to expect another stingy defensive effort having not played a game since the 6th. That's a lot of time to rest and prepare. Washington has scored 90 or fewer points in 5 of 7 games this season as its offense continues to struggle without Jamison. Mike Miller is out tonight (taking away 3-point shooting) and Gilbert Arenas is not at 100%. The Under is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games as an underdog, 4-0 in Wizards last 4 overall, and 4-0 in Wizards last 4 road games. The Under is 7-0 in Heat last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game, 4-0 in Heat last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 5-0 in Heat last 5 overall. Take the Under.

5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks/T-Wolves UNDER 189
We've had good success with totals line movers the past two nights and I expect that success to continue here. This line opened at 185 but has been bet up to where we see it now, creating excellent value on the Under, especially since I already liked the Under at the opening number. Milwaukee is having all kinds of trouble with offensive chemistry right now with star shooting guard Michael Redd out. In 2 road games this season, the Bucks haven't topped 86 points. Minnesota has struggled to score the rock as well as it tries to adjust to life in the Triangle Offense. It has not exceeded 95 points at home this season and has scored 90 or fewer points in 3 of 5 games. Together these teams are 7-1 to the Under this season, Minnesota is 13-3 Under in its last 16 home games and 7-0 in its 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take the Under.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Heat UNDER 201.5
The Nuggets have been posting high point totals but I expect that to end tonight as they find themselves in Miami where the Heat have played to the Under in 4 straight. Miami prefers to play in the half court and I look for it to control the tempo on its home floor tonight. Defensively, both of these teams have been solid with Miami allowing only 94.7 ppg at home and Denver giving up only 93.7 ppg on the road. Miami just plays solid, fundamental defense, not creating a lot of turnovers. And that is crucial here as we don't expect many points off of turnover to send this one over as a result. In fact, MIAMI is 18-4 Under after 4 straight games forcing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average total score in these games is 180.2 points. Plus, the Under is 20-6 in the Nuggets last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Under.

3* Bulls/Cavs NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Bulls/Cavs UNDER 191.5
The Bulls have played to the Under in 2 straight and the Cavs have played to the Under in 4 straight. The fact that both of these teams have been Unders clubs early on correlates to Chicago being without key scorer Ben Gordan and the Cavs adjusting to a slower pace with Shaq. This line opened at 186.5 and has been bet up to where we see it now. This movement has created value on the Under. This is a similar scenario to what happened last night in the Suns/Magic game. The total opened at 224 and was been bet down all the way to 217.5 and we cashed in on the Over as the teams combined for 222 points. Since being embarrassed at Toronto, Cleveland

4* Major on Celtics/T-Wolves UNDER 186
With as good as Boston is defensively and with as anemic as Minnesota has been offensively, I can't see this one making its way over the total. Boston is on a 16-4 UNDER run after a huge blowout win by 30 or more with the average point total coming in at 182.7. 3 of 4 have gone UNDER in this matchup the last 2 seasons, including both at Minnesota. With Boston having just played last night, I expect Doc to play his key guys as conservatively as he can and still win as the Celtics have a track meet with Phoenix up next. Take the Under.

5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Suns/Magic OVER 217.5
This total opened at 224 and has been bet down all the way to 217.5. We'll gladly get in on the OVER now as it is showing good value with the line move. The fact that the books set such a high number after seeing the Magic and the Suns both post their lowest point totals of the season tells me the books are expecting a shootout. Orlando will be hungry after last night's embarrassing effort and the Suns will be hungry all season to pay teams back after a rough 2008-09 season. This is the first time each team has played back to back this season so I don't see tired legs as an issue, especially this early in the year. Also, when teams do play back to back, it's usually the defensive end that suffers more and that plays right into our hands. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in this series and we'll pound it here.

3* NBA "Total" Blowout on Nets/Bobcats OVER 175
Plays over on any team (Nets) off a road loss, against an opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, are 80-38 the last 5 seasons. Basically, this system tells us that odds makers overreact with the line in these situations and I believe that's exactly what they have done here. New Jersey is also 13-3 OVER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons, with the average combined total score coming in at 206.5 in these games. Take the over.

3* SMASH on Knicks/Heat UNDER 207
Coach Mike D'Antoni quickly figured out that it's tough to win in the East without playing solid defense and that's why he has placed an emphasis on it this season. The result, only 193.5 total points per game in New York's preseason contests. Expect to see a better defensive effort from the Knicks tonight, one that this line does not reflect. Also, the under is 16-5 in the Knicks last 21 overall, 8-2 in the Knicks last 10 road games, and 7-3 in their last 10 meetings in Miami. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Pistons/Grizzlies OVER 190
I feel this line is representative of last year's Pistons and not the current team under new head coach John Kuester, who has installed a more uptempo philosophy. Veteran half-court, spot-up shooters like Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess are gone and young guys capable of playing in transition like Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva have arrived. With that said, losing the aforementioned vets does hurt the defense and that's why this is an attractive play tonight. Take the Over.

3* NBA Season Opening SMASH (TNT) on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 185
Expect a low-scoring defensive battle in Cleveland tonight as a healthy Celtics team once again figures to be among the finest defensive units in the league. Cleveland was an exceptional defensive team at home last season, allowing only 88.2 ppg so the Cavs know how to play defense as well. On top of the fact that we have two solid defensive teams here. The Cavs offense figures to struggle in the early going as they adjust to life with Shaquille O'Neal. Also, his presence in the lineup calls for a slower paced game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Cleveland. The under is also 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the Cavs are 33-13 under as a home fave of 3.5 to 6 points under coach Brown. Let's start off the season with a nice unders winner.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 208.5
3 straight unders in this series have brought the total down 5 points since Game 1 and now the books will pay for making such a mistake. We saw these teams score 208 and 209 points respectively in Games 1 and 2 and after totaling only 200 in a poor shooting Game 3, I expect to see a shootout. Denver is averaging 108.2 ppg at home this season and the Lakers are averaging 104.6 ppg on the road. Denver is 36-9 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score in these games was DENVER 112.7, OPPONENT 107.8. And the Lakers are 37-11 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 113.2, OPPONENT 107.6. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals TOTY (TNT) on Magic/Cavs UNDER 188.5
The public is all over the over here and that is exactly where the sportsbooks want it. We saw a total score of 213 points in Game 1, and odds makers only raised the total 4.5 points? Exactly. Adjustments are going to be made by both teams on the defensive end, and you can expect to see the Cavs team which is only allowing 87.7 ppg at home tonight. Orlando is 19-6 UNDER after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, 10-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons, and Cleveland is 14-2 UNDER after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread this season. The Under is 11-4 in Magic last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. 7 of 11 games over the last 3 seasons have gone Under in this matchup. Bet the Under!

4* Major NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Magic/Celtics OVER 186
Following 3 straight unders, which included a very low scoring Game 6, odds makers have lowered this line way too much, and we'll take full advantage. Boston is 17-6 OVER in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season, 10-2 OVER in home games revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent this season, and 13-4 OVER when playing with 2 days rest this season. All 3 of these situations have seen Boston and its opponent combine for over 200 points on average. On the other side, Orlando is 13-3 OVER after a combined score of 175 points or less this season and 21-8 OVER after allowing 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons. I'll bet the Over tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Lakers/Rockets OVER 194
Without Yao Ming in the lineup, I expect the pace of Game 4 to really pick up, which makes this a strong Overs opportunity. The Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-2 in Rockets last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Over is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games following a ATS win, 5-1 in Lakers last 6 Conference Semifinals games, and 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Over gets the call today.

5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Hawks/Cavs OVER 177.5
The Hawks will go hard tonight to try to steal a game on the road, pushing this one over the total in the process. I don't really see the Hawks stopping the Cavs defensively. Atlanta is allowing 99.6 ppg on the road this season and Cleveland is scoring 102.1 ppg at home. But I do see the Hawks scoring way more than they did in Game 1 as Joe Johnson comes to life tonight. During the regular season, the Hawks scored 96 points in each game at Cleveland so this team is capable of scoring the basketball against the Cavs. 18 of 25 games in this series played at Cleveland have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996, but here's the clincher: Plays Over on any team in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Over tonight!

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time Total on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 179.5
The public is all over the over here, but it is going to get them burnt. The last 3 games in this series have all gone under with point totals of 169, 177, and 165. Both teams play slow-down defensive minded basketball and the defensive intensity will be at it's highest tonight with Portland fighting to stay alive and Houston looking to close out the Blazers. Portland is 9-1 UNDER in road games in April games over the last 2 seasons and Houston is 10-1 UNDER in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons. Plays Under on all teams where the total is 179.5 or less (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 53-21 since 1996.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Celtics/Bulls UNDER 196
Without overtime, we would have seen 4 of 5 games in this series play to the under. The odds makers are facing us with the smallest total of this series and that means they are begging for action on the over, but we won't bite. As this series has gone one, we have seen far less fast breaking and far more defense being played. With Chicago's playoff life on the line, and with Boston looking to close this thing out, I expect a defensive struggle resulting in the under. Boston is 8-1 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season, 15-2 UNDER in road games off a home win this season, and 22-6 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Chicago is 20-6 UNDER in home games versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots since 1996. Lastly, plays UNDER on All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games are 75-30 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under!

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Rd Total of the Year on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 189.5
We have seen 3 of 4 games go over in this series, but 2 of those games made it over by just 1 point. It's going to take an exceptional defensive effort for the Spurs to stay alive tonight, and I have no doubt that you'll see it from this well rested team. San Antonio is 15-4 UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons - average score totaling 180.8 points. Popovich is 21-9 UNDER when trailing in a playoff series as the coach of San Antonio - average score totaling 182.4 points in these games. And plays under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games are 71-28 the last 5 seasons. Lastly, the UNDER is 12-4 in the Mavericks last 16 games as an underdog. With Dallas fighting to put the Spurs away and the Spurs fighting to stay alive, I expect a very high intensity defensive battle. Bet the Under.

4* Major Saturday NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Nuggets/Hornets UNDER 198
The Hornets would like to run and gun a little more but they know they can't do so and be competitive with the Nuggets. I expect them to take the air out of the ball at home today and really up their level of play on defense after getting hit in the mouth in the first two games of the series. New Orleans is a much better home team, especially on defense where it holds its opponents to only 91.7 ppg. Denver is 8-1 UNDER in road games after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season. New Orleans is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season and 18-4 UNDER revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with the average total score being 182.8 in this spot. Bet the Under.

4* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 184.5
After watching each of the first two games in this series go over, I love the Under tonight. The Rockets are only allowing 91 ppg at home this season and they have held each of their last 3 home opponents to 88, 83, and 66 points respectively. The Rockets have been able to control the tempo at home in this matchup and the result has played to the under in 15 of the last 24 home meetings against the Blazers. First off, Houston is 14-4 UNDER in home games after one or more consecutive overs this season and 12-2 UNDER in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Secondly, Portland is 17-5 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, we'll plays on the Under on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 29-9 the last 5 seasons. This one has Under written all over it.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Celtics/Bulls OVER 200.5
Each of the first two games of this series have conquered this number and I expect the pace to stay fast and furious with the series shifting to Chicago. Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe are a big part of Boston's defense and without these guys in the lineup, the Celtics have struggled on that end of the floor. We have seen the over in each of the last 4 matchups in this series with each team scoring at least 103 points in those games. Think about this; Boston is 38-1 OVER in road games where both teams score 98 or more points in a game over the last 3 seasons. The average total score in these games is 217.5 points. Also, Chicago is 16-4 OVER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. The average total score in these games is 211.3. Bet the Over tonight.

4* Major NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Rockets/Blazers OVER 183.5
We saw Game 1 go over without much of a contribution from the home team. I like this one to go over as well as Portland plays much better offensively in Game 2. Here's the key: Portland is a perfect 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season with the average score totaling 206.7 points in these games. Portland is 15-5 OVER period when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season this season with the average score in these games totaling 198.3 points. Lastly, Portland is 15-6 OVER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent this season with the average score totaling 199.3 in these games. Bet the Over!

4* Major NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Heat/Hawks UNDER 186
We've seen the Heat and the Hawks play to the Under in all 4 meetings this season, with the highest total score being just 174 points. Atlanta's defense has been exceptional at home this season and I expect to see that continue in the playoffs. In fact, Atlanta is 10-2 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season and 11-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. The Under is 5-0 in the Heat's last 5 vs. a team with a winning SU record and 4-0 in the Hawks last 4 vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Pistons/Cavs OVER 175
These are two defensive minded teams, but the books have set the bar too low for game one. Both of these teams have been playing to the over lately with Cleveland going over the total in 6 of its last 8 and Detroit going over in 12 of its last 17. The Over is 11-4-1 in the Pistons last 16 vs. the Eastern Conference, 7-3-1 in the Pistons last 11 road games, and 14-6-1 in the Pistons last 21 overall. The intensity picks up as a playoff series goes on so I don't expect these teams to be at their best defensively in game 1. I'll bet the over.

3* NBA Total of the Week on Pacers/Hawks UNDER 212
Atlanta's defense has been exceptional at home this season, allowing only 92.7 ppg. The last time the Pacers visited Atlanta on March 13th, the Hawks held them to just 87 points in a games which totaled just 188. Indiana is 21-4 UNDER when they score 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 2 seasons and this is the range my game estimator has placed them in tonight. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta, 10-4 in Hawks last 14 home games, and 5-1 in Hawks last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Celtics/Magic UNDER 191.5
This head to head result could be the deciding factor in which of these teams finishes with a better record, and therefore earns home court advantage if they are to meet in the playoffs. With the stakes that high, I expect defense to take center stage in this one. The last 2 meetings in this series have been very intense defensively and the result has been total score of 170 and 165. Boston is 13-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, 10-1 UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more this season, and 19-5 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Orlando is 13-3 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season and 9-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games this season. Bet the Under.

3* Magic/Cavs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Magic/Cavs UNDER 194
The Cavs defense has been something to behold this season, allowing only 88.4 ppg at home. With this being a revenge spot for Cleveland, which lost in Orlando back in late January, I expect that defense to really get turned up here. First off, Cleveland is 17-8 UNDER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. Cleveland is 10-1 UNDER in March home games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 home games, 12-4 in Cavaliers last 16 vs. Eastern Conference, 7-1 in Magic last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. Bet the Under!

3* Sunday NBA BEST BET on Mavs/Lakers OVER 211
Dallas is 9-1 OVER in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score in these spots totals 218.1 points. The Over is also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The Over gets the call here.

3* Saturday Night NBA BEST BET on Spurs/Rockets UNDER 184
In 2 meetings this season, we've seen these 2 teams put up totals of 152 and 187. In the game where 187 points were scored, the Spurs allowed the Rockets to score over 100 points and there's no way that happens here. This matchup is always a physical defensive game so it comes as no surprise that 8 of the L10 games have gone under the number the last 3 seasons. Looking back even further, the Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings. The odds makers have designated a point total range here that usually always gets the public on the over, but the numbers indicate that that is the wrong call. The Spurs are 15-5 UNDER in road games where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons and the Rockets are 10-1 UNDER in home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons. What will really magnify the intensity of this matchup is the fact that Houston pulled even with the Spurs in the win column with last night's win over Charlotte. The last thing to keep in mind is that both of these teams are similar in that they step up their defense more than anything else in big games and the result has been an unders machine. The UNDER is 20-6 in the Rockets last 26 vs. a team with a winning SU record and 17-5 in the Spurs last 22 vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA on TNT Total of the Year on Cavs/Suns UNDER 219
The Suns have been scoring tons of points under their new coach and that has taken this number way too high. Cleveland is one of the premier defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 92.3 ppg on the road this season. When these teams met last month, the Cavs held the Suns to just 92 points. Good defenses have been able to slow down Phoenix as just recently the Magic and Spurs have held it under the century mark. One major thing to consider is that the Under is 6-0 in the Suns last 6 games as a home underdog. Lastly, plays under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 35-12 since 1996. Bet the Under!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 206.5
Plain and simple. The Under is a perfect 10-0 for Detroit when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite this season. The average total score in these contests is 176.5 points. The Knicks defeated the Pistons 104-92 in the last meeting and Detroit will take that very personally here. With NY having just played last night, the Knicks won't have enough legs to take this one over against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in a revenge spot.

4* Major NBA Vegas Line Mistake of the Week on Magic/Pistons UNDER 187
Detroit knows it can't get in a shootout with the Magic. The Pistons will rely on solid halfcourt defense and a slower tempo at home tonight and that game plan is very conducive of an unders situation here. In the first two meetings this season, we've seen these teams score 170 and 178 total points respectively. One thing we have come to count on is Detroit playing its best defense against the best teams and the result has been an unders machine. Detroit is 18-6 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons. The average combined score in these games totaled just 181. 2 points. Detroit is 9-1 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score totaling just 175.7 points in these spots. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Total of the Week on Suns/Spurs UNDER 219.5
Odds makers have been forced to post a high number here by the Suns recent totals, but this game is at San Antonio and the Spurs will look to enforce their half court, slow down style of play. With Steve Nash and Grany Hill both banged up for Phoenix, the Suns' transition game will not be running at full strength today. Plays under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 35-9 since 1996.

5* Friday Night NBA "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Bucks/Hornets UNDER 200.5
New Orleans is allowing just 90.8 ppg at home this season. That one number tells me how badly the books have missed this one. Milwaukee's poor defensive play of late has elevated this line, but after getting stomped by Dallas, expect the Bucks to play much tougher tonight. This line is also elevated by the fact that 7 straight have gone over in this series. Squares are going to see that and jump. But the Under is 9-2 in the Hornets last 11 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, 11-4 in Hornets last 15 Friday games, and 13-6-1 in Hornets last 20 vs. Eastern Conference. The Under is also 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games as a road underdog. Plays under on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, on Friday nights are 73-37 under since 1996. This system shows you how odds makers elevate lines as team continue to go over or under them. The value is high in this one. Bet the Under!

3* NBA on TNT "TOTAL" Annihilator on Cavs/Rockets UNDER 184.5
Expect a defensive battle in Houston tonight as Houston has held 4 of its last 5 opponents under 88 points and the Cavs have held 3 of their last 4 under 79 points. Here is the game-breaker: Houston is 10-1 UNDER in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score in these games was 175.6 points. The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston and 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Under!

5* NBA Total of the Year on Bucks/Mavs OVER 208
After scoring just 76 points last night in San Antonio, expect the Mavs to have an offensive explosion tonight against a Bucks team that has allowed 110 or more points in 6 of their last 7. On the other side of the coin, the Bucks have scored 120 or more in 4 of their last 7 and have scored 103 or more in 6 of their last 7. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Dallas and Over is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings overall. The Over is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 vs. NBA Central and 7-1 in Mavericks last 8 vs. a team with a losing SU record. The Over is 12-3 in Bucks last 15 vs. a team with a winning SU record and 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games as an underdog. Bet the Over!

3* ESPN Prime Time Total on Pistons/Cavs UNDER 179.5
The under has to be the play here as these teams have taken things Under in 6 straight over the last 2 seasons and 12 of 16 over the last 3 seasons. While Detroit's offense is lacking, its defense has still been rock solid, and that has this one poised for the under again. Cleveland won 90-80 on Feb. 1 and that is key for a couple different reasons. First, because only 170 points were scored. Second, because Detroit is 7-0 UNDER revenging a home loss vs. an opponent this season. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA National TV Total Annihilator on Celtics/Suns UNDER 224.5
With Garnett out for Boston and Stoudemire for the Suns, those are two big missing pieces that will help keep this one under. Boston has been an unders machine on the road at 20-8 under away from home this season. They have been even better against the league's best offenses, going 10-2 UNDER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The average score in these games totaled 187.3 points. Boston is also 9-1 UNDER in road non-conference games this season. Teams from the west aren't used to seeing a defense like this one. The books have been forced to keep this number high because of what the Suns have done each of the last 3 games, but that was against the Clippers and Thunder. This one goes Under Sunday.

3* NBA "TOTAL" REVENGER on Spurs/Pistons UNDER 181
Expect a defensive battle in Detroit to come in under the number tonight. The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in this matchup. In the last 7 meetings between these teams, only 2 games have reach 170 or more points and neither of those reached the 180 mark. The Under is 7-1 in Spurs last 8 vs. NBA Central and 16-5-1 in Pistons last 22 vs. NBA Southwest. The Under is also 7-1 in Pistons last 8 vs. a team with a winning SU record. In the first meeting this season, we saw 166 points scored and I expect a similar result tonight. Take the Under.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week (ESPN) on Magic/Hornets UNDER 189.5
Both of these teams came away with hard fought wins last night and will not have enough left to push this one over. When these teams met on Christmas Day, we only saw 156 total points scored. With Nelson out for the Magic and now with Chandler gone for the Hornets, both of these teams are without key players and that is going to make a big difference against good teams. NO is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons, the average points scored in these games is 185.4. NO is also 10-1 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score in these games totaled just 182.7 points. Bet the Under!

4* Major NBA "TOTAL" Annihilator on Bucks/Pistons UNDER 196
Milwaukee has been offensively challenged on the road of late, due to its injury problems to key players, and it comes up against one of the better defensive teams in the NBA tonight. The Pistons are allowing just 93.9 ppg this season and I expect a very good defensive effort tonight as they'll be fresh coming off the All-Star break. In fact, the Under is 5-1 in the Pistons last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Under is also 4-1 in the Bucks last 5 road games. Lastly, plays Under on Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, second half of the season are 46-19 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Warriors UNDER 217.5
Scoring 144 points, like the Warriors did last time out, forces odds makers to set an inflated number. We'll make them pay for doing so here as the Blazers will have no part in Golden State's up and down game. Portland averages just 95.8 ppg and allows 96.8 ppg on the road this season. 6 straight in this matchup have not topped this number and 20 of the last 21. The one that did was a 218 point total. Portland is 27-12 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons, 16-6 UNDER in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, and 23-7 UNDER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score in all 3 of these systems doesn't come even close to the number we are faced with today. Bet the Under.

3* National TV Total SMASH on Lakers/Cavs UNDER 206
3 straight and 5 of the last 6 in this series have gone under the number and this is the highest number we have seen during this stretch. While the Lakers won the first meeting this season, the Cavs have had great success against LA because they have been able to control the tempo and because they are a solid defensive team. Cleveland is only allowing 89.0 ppg at home this season. With this being the last game of a long road trip for LA, I expect the Lakers not to mind playing a little bit more half court basketball. Cleveland is 19-6 UNDER in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, average total in these games is 185.3. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Cleveland, 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less, and 9-4 in Lakers last 13 games as an underdog. Bet the Under!

4* Major NBA "TOTAL" Dominator on Timberwolves/Rockets UNDER 200.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Every time Houston plays at home you have to give the under a look as the Rockets are 41-26 UNDER in home games over the last 2 seasons. This is a solid spot to take the Under here. The Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss, 6-2 in Rockets last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 19-9 in Rockets last 28 games as a home favorite. Bet the Under!

3* SMASH on Heat/Pistons UNDER 180
Detroit is 16-5 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season, with the average score totaling 177.4 ppg in these spots. Detroit has gone UNDER in 3 straight games and 5 of the last 7 matchups in this series have gone under. Detroit's defense has really started to pick it up but the offense is yet to match. With Miami in a letdown spot off a blowout win, I'll take the Under here.

3* SMASH on Lakers/Raptors OVER 214.5
LA has scored 110 or more points in 4 straight, and with Bynum out, I expect the offense to continue to push the ball more to get more transition buckets and less baskets in the Triangle Offense. Also, with Bynum out, the defense will suffer, especially on the road where LA is already giving up over 100 ppg this season. Plays Over on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, in non-conference games are 27-9 the past 5 seasons. Take the Over!

3* SMASH on Clippers/Magic UNDER 199
Without Jameer Nelson, the Magic offense is not going to be a smooth sailing ship for a while. The Clippers offense has really struggled, scoring 95 or less in 6 straight games and they face one of the NBA's elite defensive teams tonight, allowing only 91.4 ppg at home. The Under is 4-0 in the Magic last 4 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater and 10-2 in the Magic last 12 games as a home favorite period. Bet the Under!

5* Friday Night NBA Total of the Year on Clippers/Cavs UNDER 189
The books have set this number just under the 190 mark because it looks attractive to the overs-loving Joe public, but I have this one finishing 10 points under this number. Cleveland just played and emotionally and physically draining game in Orlando last night, and while it now has the incentive to bounce back, you're not going to see Cleveland get up for the Clippers. Each of the last 2 games at Cleveland has gone under the number in this matchup with scores totaling 171 and 182. Defensively, Cleveland has been sensational at home, allowing teams only 89 ppg and that is a big reason why this one stays under. The Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. NBA Pacific, 10-3 in Cavaliers last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, and 36-17-1 in Cavaliers last 54 Friday games. Bet the Under!

5* NBA "TOTAL" Dominator on Hawks/Knicks OVER 207
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. The books have set the bar too low here. The Knicks average 107.3 ppg at home but also allow 106.8. The Hawks are a very athletic team and will match the Knicks bucket for bucket tonight. This one is going to be a shootout. The last time we saw these teams play in NY we saw 220 points score and the Hawks have extra incentive to come quick tonight after laying an egg against Miami. Atlanta is 24-11 OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Over.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Celtics/Magic UNDER 192.5
Expect a defensive battle tonight as these teams battle it out for Eastern Conference supremacy. In the first meeting this season, we saw 195 points scored, but that was with Boston busting out for 107 and I don't see that here. Boston just played last night and that should slow it down some, but not enough to be competitive in what the Celtics hope will be a statement game for them. Boston is 11-4 UNDER in its last 15. Boston is 15-6 UNDER in road games this season, 8-0 UNDER after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season, and 11-3 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Orlando is 15-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Plays under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road win by 10 points or more are 79-39 since 1996. Take the Under!

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time TOTAL on Cavs/Bulls OVER 194.5
With Chicago playing back-to-back and Cleveland well rested, there's no way the Bulls will be able to slow down the Cavs here. The Bulls are allowing 102.9 ppg this season and 105.1 ppg when playing back-to-back this season. These teams have already played three times this season with each game going over this number. The Bulls are getting healthier and they will be up for this national TV challenge against the best in the East so I expect to see Chicago filling up the basket as well. 8 of 11 games in this matchup over the last 3 seasons have gone over the number and 4 of 5 have gone over in Chicago. The Over is 10-1 in the Bulls last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 6-1 in the Bulls last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 games as an underdog. Bet the Over.