25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints +6

The New Orleans Saints are 0-2 right now because of the difficult schedule they have faced.  They were 3-point road dogs at Minnesota and lost 19-29, and then they were 6.5-point home dogs against a hungry Patriots team and lost 36-20.  Sure, they could have been more competitive, but they are 0-2 just like they're supposed to be.  And they're being undervalued now because of it.

Carolina would be 0-2 against the same schedule.  Instead, the Panthers are 2-0 thanks to playing the 49ers and Bills.  They were 4.5-point favorites at San Francisco and 6.5-point home favorites over the Bills.  But since they're 2-0 they are being overvalued now.  This is clearly a great 'buy low, sell high' situation as we'll buy low on the Saints and sell high on the Panthers.

The Saints will be extremely motivated to avoid an 0-3 start, while the Panthers could fall flat after their 2-0 start.  And the Panthers have all kinds of issues right now that leaves me wondering how they can possibly be 6-point favorites here.  Their offense has been terrible, and they have some serious injury concerns right now.

Cam Newton was injured against the Bills and didn't look right.  He will play this week, but he won't be 100%.  They lost his favorite weapon in TE Greg Olsen to a broken foot, and now he's out for the next 6-8 weeks.  Plus, T Matt Kalil (neck) and WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee) are both questionable this week with injuries.

This was a Carolina offense that was struggling even before all these injuries.  They are scoring just 16.0 points per game, averaging 271 yards per game, and just 4.4 yards per play.  Now I don't know what they are going to be able to do with Olsen out and a hobbled Newton and Benjamin.  Their only healthy weapon is Christian McCaffrey, and they're limiting his touches this season to try and keep him healthy and fresh.

Taking a look at this head-to-head series, this is a rivalry that always goes down to the wire.  In fact, all four meetings over the last three seasons have been decided by 5 points or less, including three by exactly a field goal.  And that's where I think this line should be, Carolina -3, not Carolina -6.  And three points of value in the NFL is huge.

The Saints have been moving the ball fine, but they've had to settle for too many field goals.  The Panthers have faced two awful passing teams in Buffalo and San Francisco, making their defense look better than it is.  The Panthers have a good front seven, but their secondary is their weakness as it has been since they lost Josh Norman.  Drew Brees is just the guy to exploit that weakness this week.  New Orleans has averaged 30.3 points per game in its last four meetings with Carolina.

Plays against home favorites (CAROLINA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Rams/49ers NFL Thursday No-Brainer on San Francisco +3

This line indicates that the Los Angeles Rams would be favored by roughly 6 points over the San Francisco 49ers on a neutral field.  And I simply think that's too much.  This line should be either a PK or the 49ers as a small favorite because there isn't that much difference between these two teams.

The Rams are going to be favorites for the third straight week, which hasn't happened in a long time for them.  Sure, they are going to be improved this year, but they haven't played anyone yet.  They crushed the Colts, who may be the worst team in in the NFL right now.  And they lost to a Redskins team that I'm down on, both at home.  Now the Rams have to go on the road for the first time.

I was on the 49ers last week against the Seahawks, and they nearly pulled off the road upset as 14-point dogs in a 12-9 loss.  I think this team is way undervalued due to their 0-2 start.  But their other loss came to the Panthers.  The Rams would be 0-2 if they played those two teams as well.

The 49ers have a defense they can lean on.  They are giving up just 17.5 points and 299 yards per game this season.  They are also only allowing 4.3 yards per play.  The Rams gave up 385 total yards to the Redskins last week, including a ridiculous 229 rushing.  They are allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season.

That plays right into the 49ers' hands because their strength is running the football.  Carlos Hyde is fourth in the league in rushing with 169 yards.  What is most impressive is the fact that he is averaging 7.0 yards per carry.  He should find plenty of success on the ground against the Rams here, and Brian Hoyer should be much sharper in his third start of the season, especially if his receivers stop dropping the ball.

The 49ers have owned the Rams in recent years, going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.  They swept the season series last year, winning 28-0 at home.  Plays on any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - after scoring 9 points or less in two straight games are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  It's time to 'buy low' on San Francisco tonight.  Take the 49ers Thursday.

20* Lions/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York -3.5

The Detroit Lions were extremely fortunate to go 9-7 last year and make the playoffs.  They took advantage of an easy schedule and great breaks.  Eight of the Lions' nine wins came by a touchdown or less.  They actually trailed in the fourth quarter in 15 of their 16 regular season games, but Matthew Stafford kept pulling off miracles late.

The Lions actually trailed in the 4th quarter last week against the Cardinals, but then reeled off 21 straight points after David Johnson went out with an injury.  The Cardinals handed them the game by committing four turnovers, including three picks from Carson Palmer.  Now the Lions are getting too much respect from oddsmakers heading into Week 2 based on one performance.

This is the perfect sell high, buy low game.  We'll sell high on the Lions, and buy low on a New York Giants team that looked awful on the National TV stage in a 3-19 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.  But the Cowboys simply wanted that game more after getting swept by the Giants last year.  Look for the Giants to bring a different, more determined mindset into their home opener on Monday Night Football in Week 2.

It would be nice if the Giants get Odell Beckham back this week from injury, but if not I still like them at -3.5.  This line is only going to climb if it's announced he is playing.  But the Giants still have plenty of weapons outside to get the job done in Brandon Marshall, Evan Ingram and Sterling Shephard.

But what really makes the Giants the right side is their huge advantage defensively.  Pro Football Focus ranked the Giants the best defense in the NFL last year, and they have basically everyone back.  Holding a potent Cowboys offense to just 19 points last week was impressive, especially since the Giants only held the ball for 25 minutes on offense.  New York defenders fought through fatigue and had an admirable performance.

The Lions had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, and now they are heavily injured on this side of the ball early on in 2017.  DE Kerry Hyder and DE Armonty Bryant are out.  The Lions also have injuries two two starting tacklers on offense in Taylor Decker (out) and Corey Robinson (questionable).  I expect the Giants to win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this one.

The Giants beat the Lions 17-6 at home last season behind a dominant effort defensively, and we can anticipate more of the same in the rematch.  Detroit is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games off an upset win as a home dog.  Jim Caldwell is 0-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of Detroit.  The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +14

This is a massive spread for a division rivalry game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.  The Seahawks are clearly the better team, but asking them to win by two touchdowns or more to cover the spread is asking too much here Sunday.

The Seahawks have issues offensively that aren't immediately fixable, and that was evident in their 9-17 road loss to the Packers in Week 1.  They managed just 225 total yards against an average Packers defense.  Russell Wilson completed just 51.9% of his passes for 135 yards on 27 attempts.

Seattle has the same problem offensively that it has had for the last several years.  It fails to upgrade the offensive line, and Russell Wilson continuously has to run for his life.  Of course, it didn't help matters when starting LT George Fant suffered and torn ACL in the preseason.

That makes this a good matchup for the 49ers, whose strength is their front seven defensively.  The 49ers have added elite talent in the early rounds of recent NFL drafts to upgrade their defensive line and LB corps.  They still have Navorro Bowman around to lead the troops, and he remains one of the elite LB's in the league.

The 49ers played a better game than the 23-3 final would indicate against the Panthers, especially defensively.  They only allowed 287 total yards to the Panthers and 4.6 yards per play.  They were very good against the run, limiting the Panthers to just 3.1 yards per carry on 38 attempts.  I think their defense will keep them in this game.

The offense obviously was not effective in managing just a field goal against the Panthers.  But Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the game as we saw last year with the Falcons, and he will figure out a way to make this offense hum.  It's a complex scheme that wasn't going to be hitting on all cylinders in Week 1, but I look for Brian Hoyer and company to take a step forward this week.

The Seahawks are notorious slow starters.  They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Week 2 games.  The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC West opponents.  I expect San Francisco to harass Russell Wilson for four quarters and stay within two touchdowns this week.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Rams -2.5

If you don't jump on now you're going to miss the boat on the Los Angeles Rams.  This is going to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  The 46-9 win over the Indianapolis Colts was no fluke last week, and I look for the Rams to make easy work of the Washington Redskins as only 2.5-point home favorites in Week 2.

Sean McVay is the youngest head coach in NFL history, and his players feed off his energy.  He ran an excellently-designed offense in Washington before coming here, and that offense was on display in a big way against the Colts.  It's no accident Jared Goff had the best game of his career, completing 21 of 29 passes for 306 yards and a touchdown in the win.  It was Goff's first victory as a starting QB, and there will be many more to come under McVay's tutelage.

The Rams have had one of the most talented defenses in the NFL over the last few years, and the offense has simply held them back.  But now this defense can flourish in 2017.  That was the case against the Colts as the D held them to just 225 total yards while forcing three turnovers.  And that was even without their best player in DT Aaron Donald, who could return to action this week.

I'm way down on the Redskins this season.  They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, one that gave up 30 points, 356 total yards and 5.7 yards per play to the Eagles last week.  The offense will take a step back without McVay calling the shots, especially with the losses of two of their best weapons in DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon in the offseason.  This offense managed just 264 total yards and 4.6 per play against the Eagles last week.

The Rams are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redskins.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints +7

Yes, the last three times the Patriots lost their season opener they went on to win the Super Bowl.  Yes, the Patriots under Bill Belichick have been great bets following a loss.  But the fact of the matter is that these aren't the same old Patriots.  I faded them by backing the Chiefs +9 Thursday, and I'll fade them again in Week 2.

The New England Patriots couldn't have possibly been more overvalued heading into 2017.  They won the Super Bowl last year while coming back from 28-3 down to beat the Falcons.  They went 17-2 overall and a ridiculous 16-3 against the spread.  The betting public isn't going to abandon them now after they treated them so well last year.  That's going to provide some nice line value to fade them moving forward.

Tom Brady has been known to have great chemistry with his receivers, but that isn't the case now that he's without perhaps his favorite receiver ever in Julian Edelman.  Brady went just 16-of-36 passing for 267 yards without a touchdown in the 27-42 loss to the Chiefs.  Now Danny Amendola is questionable with a concussion after getting knocked out of the Chiefs game.

There were many signs in the preseason that the Patriots wouldn't be good defensively.  They gave up 31 points to Jacksonville, 27 to Houston, 28 to Detroit and 40 to the Giants.  That carried over into the regular season as they gave up 42 points and 537  total yards to an underwhelming Chiefs offense.

Now that defense has to take on what has historically been one of the best offenses in the NFL over the past decade in the Saints.  And the Patriots have serious injury issues on defense, especially at LB where Dont'a Hightower is doubtful after suffering a knee injury to the Chiefs.  New England's defense completely imploded once he left the field as he is probably their most important player on that side of the ball.

Brees went 27-of-37 passing (73.0%) against a very good Vikings defense last week in a 19-29 road loss.  They trailed most the way so they couldn't utilize their talented backfield of Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara as much as they wanted to.  Look for them to really focus on getting the running game going against a Patriots defense that surrendered 185 rushing yards and 6.9 per carry to the Chiefs.

Sean Payton is 25-10 ATS off a road loss at the coach of New Orleans.  Payton is 19-7 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of the Saints.  The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  New Orleans is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Saints Sunday.

20* Texans/Bengals AFC Thursday No-Brainer on Houston +6.5

The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals were both thoroughly embarrassed in Week 1.  The Texans lost 7-29 at home to the Jaguars, while the Bengals lost 0-20 at home to the Ravens.  Both teams will come back motivated in Week 2.

But I'm not sure why the Bengals are getting so much respect from the oddsmakers here.  This line opened at Bengals -3, which is about where it should be, and has been bet all the way up to Bengals -6.5 as of this writing.  I think the time is now to pounce and take the Texans at a great value in a game that is likely to come down to the wire.

The Texans pretty much gave away the game to the Jaguars by committing four turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown.  Their defense played well in limiting the Jaguars to 280 total yards, and this is going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL again after leading the league in total defense last year.

Tom Savage really sabotaged the team in the first half.  Bill O'Brien made the switch to Deshaun Watson at halftime, and they played the Jaguars to a 10-7 game after intermission.  Watson played well, going 12 of 23 for 102 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while also rushing for 16 yards on two carries.

It looks as though Watson is going to get the nod Thursday against the Bengals, which I think is an upgrade for the Texans.  The offensive line got manhandled by a very underrated front seven for Jacksonville, and Watson's mobility behind this shaky O-line will help mask the problems.  He's not afraid of the big stage, so I'm far from worried about this being his first NFL road game.  This guy has the 'It' factor.

I was way down on the Bengals coming into the season, and they did nothing Week 1 to change my opinion.  They committed five turnovers and managed just 221 total yards in their ugly 20-0 loss to the Ravens.  They are missing some key players on defense in safety Shawn Williams, DE Michael Johnson and LB Vontaze Burfict that will have their D exposed in the short term.

The Texans have clearly had the Bengals' number.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They have won each of their last three trips to Cincinnati outright as dogs of 10, 4 and 2.5 points.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off the upset once again here.

The Texans are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

20* Chargers/Broncos ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +3.5

The Chargers get a breathe of fresh air in 2017 with their move to Los Angeles.  It will help them get over their 5-11 season from 2016 which saw lose more starts due to injury than any other team in the NFL.  Yet this easily could have been a .500 or better team when you look at how they fared in close games.

All 11 of San Diego's losses last season came by 12 points or less, including nine by 8 points or fewer.  So they were competitive in every game they played essentially.  Philip Rivers got the most out of the talent he had on hand, but he also made some critical mistakes late in games.  Anything that could go wrong did last year.

I think the Chargers are putting a lot into this season knowing that Rivers only has a few years left.  He should get a healthy season from Keenan Allen after he missed most of the last two years with injuries.  They selected Mike Williams seventh overall and he should come in and contribute in a big way right away.  Melvin Gordon proved he could handle the workload by rushing for 997 yards and 10 touchdowns before missing basically the last four games due ton injury.

The Chargers have one of the more underrated defenses in the NFL.  They gave up 347 yards per game and 5.6 per play last season, which was right around league average.  But they were much better after rookie Joey Bosa ended his holdout.  Bosa tied for the NFL lead with 11 tackles for loss, plus team-highs in sacks (10.5) and QB hits (21).  Melvin Inrgam remains one of the better DE's in the game.

The Denver Broncos have a great defense once again, but they also have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL.  They desperately wanted Paxton Lynch to win the job in the preseason, but he was awful, so they'll be sticking with Trevor Siemian, who wasn't much better.  He threw 18 touchdowns against 10 interceptions last year for an offense that managed just 20.8 points per game.

The Chargers are 40-22 ATS in their last 62 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Los Angeles is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 September games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five Week 1 games.  The road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Chargers are 8-2-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Denver.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFL Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 51

The books have set the bar too high on this total in the Seahawks/Packers game in Week 1.  I fully expect more a defensive battle than this whopping 51-point total would indicate.  I think the way these two teams finished the season has this total inflated.

This is especially true for the Packers, who closes last season on a 7-0 run to the OVER.  Their defense was extremely banged up down the stretch, and Aaron Rodgers did a great job winning shootouts week after week.  Now that is fresh in the public's mind, but the fact of the matter is the Packers will be much better defensively now that they are healthy to open 2017.  They allowed just 14.0 points per game in the preseason.

The Seahawks closed last season on a 3-1 run to the over, but they also had key injuries to Earl Thomas and other, and they lost 20-36 to the Falcons in the playoffs.  They will get back to being one of the best defensive teams in the NFL now, especially with the addition of Sheldon Richardson via trade.  They allowed just 14.0 points per game in the preseason.

I think the recent head-to-head history in this series shows that there is value with the UNDER.  The Seahawks and Packers have combined for 48, 44 and 44 points at the end of regulation in their last three meetings.  Neither team has been able to get to 400 yards of offense in any of the last five meetings.  Seattle is 30-12 to the UNDER in its last 42 September road games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7

The Atlanta Falcons came out of nowhere to go 11-5 during the regular season.  They proceeded to blow out both the Seahawks and Packers before stomping the Patriots 28-3 late in the third quarter of the Super Bowl.  That's where it fell apart as they actually blew that lead and lost in overtime.

It's going to be extremely difficult for the Falcons to get over that loss.  It's usually a good move to fade the Super Bowl loser.  Since 2000, only two teams that lost the Super Bowl actually finished with a better record the next season.  We saw the Panthers fall flat last year after losing to the Broncos in the Super Bowl the previous season, and I think the same fate will follow the Falcons.

But the Falcons enter 2017 way overvalued now after that great season.  They are now being asked to lay 7 points on the road to the Chicago Bears.  They still have plenty of talent, especially offensively, but they did lose coordinator Kyle Shanahan this offseason, and now have a first-time NFL coordinator in Steve Sarkisian.  The defense still has plenty of holes as well after allowing 25.3 points per game 377 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play last year.

Injuries really gave the Bears no chance of having a good season last year during their 3-13 campaign.  But they enter 2017 a lot healthier and should be improved, plus they're flying under the radar, which provides great value against the betting lines.

They should get better QB play after signing Mike Glennon in the offseason.  They have a special young back in Jordan Howard, who rushed for 1,313 yards last year.  They also added some WR talent in Kendall Wright from Tennessee and Markus Wheaton from Pittsburgh, which should help make up for the losses of Alshon Jeffery and Cameron Meredith.  Kevin White is now healthy and ready to show off the talent that made him a first-round pick a couple years back.

John Fox is a defensive guy, and I think he will have the Bears surprising on this side of the ball in 2017 after a mediocre season last year with a defense that gave up 347 yards per game and 5.7 per play, which was right around league average.  They added CB Prince Amukamara, CB Marcus Cooper and S Quintin Demps to shore up their secondary, and all three are expected to start.

The Bears went 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS at home last year.  They only lost twice by more than a touchdown.  I think they can keep this game close and possibly pull off the upset, especially against a Falcons team that is overvalued and still reeling from their Super Bowl loss.

The Bears were -20 in turnover differential last year, tied for last in the NFL.  These teams are prime bounce-back candidates and fit into a system that I love this week.  Plays on any team (CHICAGO) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -1.5

The Arizona Cardinals won 10 games in 2013, 11 games in 2014 and 13 games in 2015 in Bruce Arians' first three seasons on the job.  Expectations were hight last year, but they went 7-8-1 to fall well short of them.  However, there's no question they were much better than their record would indicate.
 
They actually led the NFL in yardage differential, gaining 366.8 yards per game offensively while giving up only 305.2 yards per game defensively, outgaining teams by 61.6 yards per game.  To compare, the Patriots were the second-best team in this department last year at +59.9 and the Falcons (+44.6) were fourth, so they were in some good company.

Five of Arizona's eight losses last season came by a touchdown or less, and they tied with the Seahawks in a game they dominated but should have won.  The Cardinals are prime bounce-back candidates in 2017.  They will have better luck in the health department and win more of their close games.

Arizona finished second in the NFL in total defense last season and led the league with 44 sacks.  The tandem of Chandler Jones and Markus Golden combined for 23.5 of those sacks, and both are back to wreak havoc on opposing offenses.  They also have one of the best secondary's in the league.

Carson Palmer is reportedly in the best shape of his career, and he has David Johnson to lean on, who had over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 20 total touchdowns last year.  Larry Fitzgerald is still productive, and getting a healthy John Brown back at receiver should make their offense even more explosive.

The Detroit Lions were extremely fortunate to go 9-7 last year and make the playoffs.  They took advantage of an easy schedule and great breaks.  Eight of the Lions' nine wins came by a touchdown or less.  They actually trailed in the fourth quarter in 15 of their 16 regular season games, but Matthew Stafford kept pulling off miracles late.  It's not going to happen again.

I fully expect the Cardinals to have a winning record this season, and Stafford is 5-46 in his career against teams that finish the season with a winning record.  The Lions have a ton of injury issues already heading into Week 1.  OT Taylor Decker, DE Kerry Hyder, DE Brandon Copeland, DE Armonty Bryant and DT Khyri Thornton are all out.  They are missing most of their defensive line, which is bad news for trying to stop a back the caliber of David Johnson.

The Cardinals are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lions, winning seven of those eight meetings by 7 points or more, and outscoring them by an average of 12.7 points per game.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +6

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a team on the rise.  Yes, they went just 3-13 last year, but they were much better than that record would indicate.  They went 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  So they were way more competitive last season, and they were much closer to an 8-8 team than a 3-13 one.

This is a Jaguars defense that is going to be one of the best in the NFL this season.  They have consistently drafted talent on defense over the last few seasons, and it started showing signs of being a great unit in the second half last year.  Now they are a year older and more experienced on that side of the ball.  This is a defense that will keep them in most ball games.

The defense added CB A.J. Bouye, DE Calais Campbell and SS Barry Church, three projected starters that will only add to a talented group that includes recent first-round draft picks Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack.  The offense added RB Leonard Fournette and LT Cam Robinson in the first round rounds of the draft this year, and both are expected to start Week 1.

The Houston Texans aren't a team that can be trusted laying this kind of number.  They went 9-7 last year, but all nine of their wins came by single-digits, including eight by a touchdown or less.  They got terrible QB play last year and that's unlikely to change in 2017.  They drafted Deshaun Watson as their QB of the future, but it's going to be Tom Savage taking the snaps in Week 1.

The Jaguars played the Texans tough in both meetings last year, losing 21-24 at home and 20-21 on the road.  I think this one is likely to go down to the wire as well, and they'll be extra motivated to end a 6-game losing streak to the Texans overall in this series.

Jacksonville was -16 in turnover differential last year.  That tends to even itself out over time, and I expect head coach Doug Marrone to emphasize taking care of the football in 2017.  It also sets the Jaguars up for a nice system play for Week 1.

Plays on any team (JACKSONVILLE) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

25* NFL Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Titans -1.5

The Tennessee Titans are a team on the rise.  They went 9-7 last season and were competitive in every game but one. Six of their seven losses came by single-digits.  They won four of their final five games last year to really carry over some momentum into 2017.

Marcus Mariota took a big step forward last year with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions.  The running game was one of the best in the NFL at 137 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry behind the two-headed attack of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.  The defense was just average, but the Titans made several moves on that side of the ball in the offseason that will have them in the top half of the league this year.

The Oakland Raiders were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last year.  Give them credit for going 12-4 in the regular season, but they easily could have been 8-8 or worse.  The Raiders went a ridiculous 9-2 in games decided by 8 points or less.  That's not going to happen again.

That record in close games covered up a lot of problems for this team, especially defensively.  The Raiders gave up 24.2 points per game, 370 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  This was one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, and it's not going to be any better in 2017 as they lost a lot of players on that side of the ball.

This is a revenge game for the Titans, who lost 10-17 at home to the Raiders last year.  They rushed for 181 yards in the loss, but committed three turnovers, which was the difference in the game.  Marcus Mariota will be motivated to redeem himself after throwing two picks in that loss.

Tennessee is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in the series.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Pats 2017 NFL Season Opener on Kansas City +9

The Kansas City Chiefs just don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  Andy Reid is doing a tremendous job here just as he did in Philadelphia.  The Chiefs have won at least 9 games in all four of Reid's seasons, and they've gone 43-21 in the regular season during that stretch.

The New England Patriots couldn't possibly be more overvalued heading into 2017.  They won the Super Bowl last year while coming back from 28-3 down to beat the Falcons.  They went 17-2 overall and a ridiculous 16-3 against the spread.  The betting public isn't going to abandon them now after they treated them so well last year.

Now the Patriots open as whopping 9-point favorites over the Chiefs in Week 1.  That's despite the fact that they are missing their best receiver in Julian Edelman, who is out for the season after tearing his ACL in the preseason.  Tom Brady had better chemistry with Edelman than perhaps any other receiver in his career, so that's a big blow.

The Chiefs went 6-2 on the road last season.  They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six road games overall.  They only lost 20-27 in New England in the 2015-16 playoffs.  They handed the Patriots one of their worst losses of the Belichick era with a 41-14 blowout at home in 2014 as well.  They have outgained the Patriots 821-630 in their last two meetings.

The Patriots did not fare well defensively in the preseason.  They have a lot of issues on that side of the ball.  They gave up 31 points to Jacksonville, 27 to Houston, 28 to Detroit and 40 to the New York Giants.  I know preseason doesn't mean a whole lot, but it is concerning nonetheless.

The Chiefs are the perfect team to back as a big underdog.  They have only lost 5 times by 10-plus points in 67 games under Reid.  They don't beat themselves with turnovers, and they do just enough to keep games close.  I think they'll easily stay within a touchdown of the Patriots and possibly pull off the stunner in Week 1.  Bet the Chiefs Thursday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Patriots UNDER 58.5

For starters, this 58.5-point total is the highest in Super Bowl history.  That fact alone shows that there is serious value in backing the UNDER.  The betting public is a big factor in this high total because oddsmakers know that the majority are going to back the OVER.  That's why they are forced to set this total as high as they have.

But with the Super Bowl, teams get two full weeks to prepare for one another.  That is a much bigger advantage for the defenses than it is the offenses.  It also can make the offenses a little rusty to start the game, and it will be too late for them to catch up to the defenses to score enough points to top this 58.5-point total.

New England has the best scoring defense in the NFL, giving up just 15.7 points per game on the season.  I realize they faced ordinary offenses for much of the season, but they have gotten better on this side of the ball as the season has progressed.  They have allowed a total of 53 points in their last five games, an average of just 10.6 points per game.

The Falcons have an elite offense, but what gets overlooked about them is how good their defense has played down the stretch.  In fact, the Falcons have allowed 21 or fewer points in six of their last eight games overall. The lone exceptions were the 29 given up to Kansas City in which 9 of those came from their defense and special teams. They held the Saints to 13 points at the end of three quarters before giving up 19 in garbage time in the fourth. Holding the Seahawks to 20 and the Packers to 21 in their last two games is no small feat.

New England is 6-0 UNDER in road games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in their last game over the past two seasons.  The Falcons are 28-12 UNDER in their last 40 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  Bet the UNDER in Super Bowl 51.

My Top 5 Super Bowl Prop Bets

#5: Mohamed Sanu Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-135)

My theory here is that the Patriots are going to try and take away Julio Jones and the running backs in the passing game as much as possible, which are the Falcons' biggest weapons.  That will leave Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel open to have big games.  My feeling is that Sanu will have the bigger game.  He has averaged 44 receiving yards per game on the season, so he barely has to go over his season average to cash a winning ticket.  I also like the OVER 4 receptions on Sanu.

#4: No Defensive or Special Teams TD (-200)

The Patriots and Falcons have combined for just 1 special teams TD all season.  That was Dion Lewis on a kickoff return against the Texans in the Division Round.  The Falcons haven't scored a special teams touchdown this year.  And I don't see many turnovers in this game.  Matt Ryan has only thrown 7 interceptions in 18 games, while Tom Brady has only thrown 4 interceptions in 14 games.  I'm willing to lay 2/1 odds that there won't be a defensive or special teams TD in the Super Bowl.

#3: Atlanta More Penalty Yards (-125)

This is a prop that has to do with the Patriots experience in these big games and the Falcons inexperience.  The Patriots won't make many mistakes in Tom Brady's 7th appearance in the Super Bowl.   The Falcons are likely to be antsy especially in the early going as this will be just their 2nd trip to the Super Bowl and 1st for most of their players.  The Patriots were the 5th-least penalized team in the NFL this season.  The Falcons were the 13th-least penalized team.  I think this is a very fair price having to lay only -125 that the Falcons will finish with more penalty yards than the Patriots.

#2: Yardage of Shortest TD Scored UNDER 1.5 Yards (-150)

For starters, the 58.5-point total is the highest in Super Bowl history.  That means there's expected to be a lot of points.  And with more opportunities for touchdowns, there's a good chance one of these teams scores from the 1-yard line.  Keep in mind that a pass interference penalty in the end zone puts the ball at the 1-yard line.  I think that is a very likely scenario where we get a pass interference penalty in the end zone.  And LaGarrette Blount and Devonte Freeman score a ton of touchdowns and rarely get stopped from the 1.  Blount has scored 19 touchdowns and Freeman has scored 14.  Tom Brady is one of the best in the business with the QB sneak, too.

#1: Total First Downs Made: Falcons +1 (-135)

The Falcons have the best offense in the NFL so the fact that they are an underdog to get more first downs makes no sense to me.  This is a Top-10 offense all time.  The Falcons average 34 points and 420 yards per game.  They also average 24.3 first downs per game.  The Patriots average 22.1 first downs, so the Falcons average more than 2 more first downs per game than the Pats on the season.  The way the Pats play defense, they are going to force the Falcons to try and beat them with underneath stuff.  They aren't going to let Julio Jones get over the top for big plays.  Matt Ryan will take what the defense gives him and methodically move the ball down the field while racking up first downs.  The Patriots will also have plenty of success moving the ball against the Falcons, but I think they are more likely to get big plays that will help limit their first downs.

20* Steelers/Patriots AFC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +6

The Steelers have made me a lot of money down the stretch as they’ve consistently been undervalued, and I’m not about to buck them now. I think they are once again showing great value in the AFC Championship Game as 6-point underdogs to the New England Patriots.

Pittsburgh has now gone 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. Not only have the Steelers been winning on the scoreboard, they’ve been dominating the box scores as well, which is the sign of a legitimate team. They have actually outgained 11 of their last 12 opponents which dates back to their 16-27 loss to the Patriots. The only exception was against Cleveland in Week 17 where they rested their starters with nothing to play for.

And that loss to the Patriots was much closer than the final score. The Steelers outgained them 375 to 362 for the game. Keep in mind that the Steelers were playing without Ben Roethlisberger in that game, and having him back healthy is going to make all the difference in the rematch, as we’ve seen down the stretch during this nine-game winning streak.  The Patriots also had Rob Gronkowski in that game.

I think the Patriots are one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL. Tom Brady is having a quality season, but he was not sharp at all against the Texans as he went 18-of-38 passing and threw two interceptions. The problem was that the Texans have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and couldn’t take advantage. The Patriots won’t have that luxury this week.

One of the most common stats out there is that the Patriots lead the NFL in scoring defense. Well, that stat is fraudulent. That’s because the Patriots faced the league’s 32nd-ranked slate of offenses in the NFL this season. They played terrible offenses all season, and didn’t have to face the Steelers with Roethlisberger when they played them. 

The only good quarterback they've faced down the stretch is Russell Wilson, and the Patriots lost to the Seahawks at home while giving up 31 points.  Wilson threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns in that game.  Roethlisberger only ranks 11th in QB rating this season, but he's actually the highest-rated passer that the Patriots will have played against all season!

Now the Patriots will be up against a Pittsburgh offense that has put up 24 or more points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  The lone exception was the 18-16 win at Kansas City last week.  But the Steelers should have scored more as they racked up 389 total yards but were held to six field goals.  They outgained the Chiefs by 162 yards in that contest and clearly should have won by more.  But the fact that the final score was close I think is also keeping the Steelers undervalued here.

One of the most underrated stats about the Steelers has been their defense, which has been dominant in the second half of the season. They have given up just 16.6 points per game during their nine-game winning streak. The difference has been inserting James Harrison into the starting lineup, and getting a healthy Bud Dupree back. The Steelers now have the best pass rush of any team left in the playoffs, which is the key to stopping the Patriots.

Pittsburgh is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games when revenging a home loss vs. opponent. The Steelers are 56-27 ATS in their last 83 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. Pittsburgh is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 games vs. a team with a winning percentage great than 75%. The Steelers are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games. The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* Packers/Falcons NFC ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -4

I was on the Falcons last week and I'm on them again this week. They delivered with a 36-20 win over the Seahawks in a game they dominated. They racked up 422 total yards on the Seahawks while limiting them to just 309, outgaining them by 113 yards for the game.

The Falcons are legitimately probably the best team in the NFL when you look at the numbers. They lead the NFL in yards per play differential. They average 6.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play. They clearly have the best offense in the NFL, and it’s not really even been close.

But the promising thing about the Falcons is the fact that they’ve allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall. The only exceptions were the 29 points given up to the Chiefs in which 9 of those were scored by their defense and special teams. And they had held the Saints to 13 points through three quarters before giving up 19 points in garbage time in the fourth with the game already decided.

The Packers have been clicking offensively as well and will get their points, but they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They gave up 31 points and 429 yards to the Cowboys last week. They are now allowing 28.6 points per game, 393 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on the road this season. The Falcons will expose this D more than it has been all season.

The first meeting this season was a 33-32 shootout in favor of the Falcons. But Atlanta played better than the final score showed. It actually held the Packers to just 331 total yards in that victory, which wouldn’t usually lead to 32 points. Matt Ryan did whatever he wanted to, completing 28 of 35 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Keep in mind that Julio Jones was banged up in that game, and Tevin Coleman didn’t even play.

The Packers are dealing with even more injuries this week.  Not only is Jordy Nelson not expected to play, but Davante Adams has a bum ankle, and Geronimo Allison has a hamstring injury.  Nelson and Adams have combined for 26 of Aaron Rodgers' 40 touchdown passes this season.  Defensively, the Packers were already missing several key players in the secondary, but now both CB Quinten Rollins and S Morgan Burnett are questionable with injuries.  Sooner or later, these injuries will catch up to them, and I think that will happen this week.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – off one or more straight overs against opponent off six or more consecutive overs are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983. Atlanta is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

It’s been a great run for the Packers, but I think they’re simply out of gas now.  They don't have much left in the tank to give, especially with all the injuries.  The Falcons are rested and ready to go after getting a bye in the wild card round.  And they haven't had to do any traveling as their last road game was on December 24th.  They've basically been in Atlanta for an entire month.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -4

The Cowboys were one of the most underrated teams in the NFL for much of the season. They went 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS and opened the season with 10 straight games without a loss against the spread. However, they then became overvalued and were great fade material down the stretch. I took advantage and went against them routinely, and they closed just 1-5 ATS in their final six games.

Because of that poor finish ATS, I believe the Cowboys are now undervalued heading into the playoffs. And while I’ve been riding the Packers religiously with a ton of success during their 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run, I’m certain they are now overvalued and it’s time to fade them. This line should be closer to a touchdown in my opinion.

The Cowboys have had two weeks off to get healthy, plus they rested many starters in Week 17, so they’ll be ready to go. The Packers have gone through a grueling stretch with balls to the wall just to get in to the playoffs. And the injuries are now starting to take their toll. Both Jordy Nelson and Ty Montgomery, two of their biggest weapons on offense, were hurt in the win over the Giants. Nelson is doubtful this week, while Montgomery is questionable. Not to mention, the Packers have had a depleted secondary all season.

The Cowboys have the type of offense that can exploit a weak Green Bay defense. They rank 5th in the NFL in total offense at 376.7 yards per game. They are extremely balanced as they rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing at 149.8 yards per game, and they complete 67.3% of their passes while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt through the air. They are virtually unstoppable on offense.

That was clearly on display in their first meeting with the Packers this season. They went into Lambeau Field and won 30-16 as 5-point underdogs. They racked up 424 total yards on the suspect Packers’ defense, including 191 rushing and 233 passing. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 157 yards on 28 carries, while Dak Prescott threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns with an interception.

I think the Cowboys are going to be able to score at will against a Green Bay defense that gives up 6.1 yards per play this season, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL. And the Packers have been especially poor defensively on the road, giving up 28.2 points per game, 388.6 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. They wore down in their first meeting with the Cowboys, and that’s going to happen again with the way Dallas can possess the ball, averaging nearly 32 possession minutes per game.

Dallas is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games off a loss by 14 points or more. Plays on favorites (DALLAS) – after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home teams (DALLAS) – after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS since 1983. The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Dallas.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Texans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +16

By no means do I think the Texans will win this game, but 16 points is a ton. I think they can stay within the number and take this game down to the wire. There are numerous reasons they should be able to be competitive, and it starts with their defense.

The Texans actually ranked No. 1 in the NFL in total defense this season. They give up just 295.5 yards per game on the season, including 220.8 yards per game in their last four contest. They have one of the most underrated secondary’s in the NFL, ranking 2nd against the pass at 201.6 yards per game. Their defensive backs stick to receivers like glue, and they’re getting a solid pass rush led by Jadeveon Clowney. They certainly have what it takes to slow down Tom Brady and company.

A benching may be just what Brock Osweiler needed. He responded with one of his best games of the season against the Raiders. Osweiler finished 14 of 25 passing for 168 yards and a touchdown without an interception. By no means is he a top-tier quarterback now, but I think he can make enough plays to keep them in the game. And Lamar Miller is back healthy now, rushing for 73 yards and a score against the Raiders.

You’re going to hear this stat plenty leading up to this game. The Patriots have outscored the Texans 54-6 in their two meetings over the past two seasons. But the Texans’ defense actually played well in both games, limiting the Patriots to just 282 and 313 total yards. And they gave away the game earlier this season in a 27-0 loss by fumbling twice on special teams, turning the ball over three times in all. They actually outgained the Patriots 284-282 in that contest.

The Patriots are about as overvalued as they’ve been at any point this season. That’s because they come in to this game on a 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run, including five straight covers. But the competition has been very suspect as they’ve faced the 49ers, Jets (twice), Rams, Ravens, Broncos and Dolphins. Only one of those teams made the playoffs, and that was a Miami squad that had nothing to play for against the Patriots in Week 17.

This will now be a step up in class for the Patriots against a Texans team playing their best football of the season. Houston has won four of its last five games overall with the only loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 game against Tennessee. The Texans have outgained their last four opponents by a combined 334 yards, or by an average of 83.5 yards per game.

Plays against favorites who score 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.  Roll with the Texans Saturday.

20* Seahawks/Falcons NFC No-Brainer on Atlanta -5

Obviously both teams are going to be motivated here. But I think the Falcons have the extra motivation after the way they lost in Seattle earlier this season, 24-26. The refs missed a pass interference call on Richard Sherman that would have set the Falcons up for a game-winning field goal. And that loss has left a sour taste in the Falcons’ mouths that they would love to wash out here.

To be honest, I think the Falcons are the best team in the NFL. They rank 1st in the league in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play. They average 6.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.6 per play on defense. They are also 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 44.6 yards per game. This team just doesn’t get the same kind of respect as other top teams like the Cowboys and Patriots.

The Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 33.7 points per game. They are also 2nd in total offense at 415.8 yards per game. They have so many weapons this year that they are just so tough to tame. Julio Jones has been as efficient as ever, Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu are two of the most underrated receivers in the game, and Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman can both do it all rushing and receiving. Not to mention, center Alex Mack was a huge addition to this offensive line and has the boys up front playing as well as they have in a long time.

Certainly the Falcons don’t have a top defense, but they aren’t as bad on that side of the ball as they’re made out to be. They give up points and yards because opponents are consistently playing from behind. But they were much better down the stretch, giving up 19 or fewer points in four of their final six games. And the lone exceptions were the 29 points given up to the Chiefs in which 9 of those came from KC’s defense and special teams. And they allowed 32 to the Saints in the finale, but they had held them to only 13 points until fourth quarter garbage time with the game already decided.

The Seahawks were a great home team this year, but it has been a different story on the road. They are just 3-4-1 SU & 3-5 ATS in all road games this year. Their offense was abysmal on the road this season, averaging just 15.9 points per game. They lost 10-38 at Green Bay, 5-14 at Tampa Bay, 20-25 at New Orleans and 3-9 at Los Angeles. And they were fortunate to win 25-23 at San Francisco in Week 17.

Teams have been able to take advantage of the absence of Earl Thomas down the stretch. The Packers put up 38 points on the Seahawks, the Cardinals put up 34, and the 49ers even had some success with 23 points. You can just imagine what the best offense in the NFL is going to do against this Seattle defense this week. Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns on this Seattle defense in the first meeting, and that was with Thomas in the lineup.

Seattle is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 6 points or fewer last game. Atlanta is 9-2 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.  Take the Falcons Saturday.

15* Dolphins/Steelers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -10

The Steelers have really turned it on since their four-game losing streak midseason. They have now won seven straight games while going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. They outgained nine straight opponents before resting many of their starters last week against the Browns in a meaningless contest.

The Dolphins might be the most overrated team in the NFL. Yes, their record shows 10-6, but this is more like a 6-10 team when you look at the numbers. They have been outgained in five of their last six games. The Dolphins rank 29th in yardage differential on the season, getting outgained by 49.8 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some poor company.

This game will be a complete reversal of the first time these teams played back in October. In that game, Ben Roethlisberger was banged up. Now it’s the Dolphins with a banged-up starting quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, meaning Matt Moore will get the nod in the rematch. And the Dolphins could be missing as many as six players who played in that first meeting with the Steelers who are likely to be unavailable this time around, including two safeties on defense.

This game fits one of my favorite playoff systems. It involves betting on teams who played the tougher schedule during the regular season. Wild card teams who played the tougher schedule are 40-16 SU & 40-15-1 ATS over the last 14 seasons since the wild card system was adopted. When there is a difference of 10 or more in strength of schedule, the teams who played the tougher schedule are 23-4 SU & 22-4-1 ATS. The Steelers played the 11th-toughest schedule this season, while the Dolphins played the 27th.

The Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in the league. They rank 30th in rushing defense at 140 yards per game and dead last at 4.8 yards per carry. They allow 383 total yards per game and 5.8 per play. Look for Le’Veon Bell to have a field day against the Dolphins here. The Steelers have averaged 135 rushing yards per game in their last seven contests.  Like Bell, Antonio Brown and Big Ben also rested last week, so they should come in firing on all cylinders and ready to go.

While the Steelers’ offense gets all the credit, it’s the improvement from the defense that makes this team a real Super Bowl contender. The Steelers only give up 20.4 points per game this season. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall. And I think you can throw out the Cleveland game at the end in which they gave up 24 points because they weren’t interested.

Miami is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off a game where both teams score 24 or more points. Mike Tomlin is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points as the coach of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams who allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two years. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff home games. The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games.

Many bettors are going to see the Dolphins catching double-digits with this 10-point spread and just jump on them thinking there's value.  But there's a lot of good reasons why they are double-digit dogs.  And keep in mind, the last five double-digit favorites in the playoffs are a perfect 5-0 ATS.  These playoff teams are always focused, so you don't have to worry about letdowns.  And Pittsburgh wants its revenge from that earlier loss to Miami.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +4

The Houston Texans won the worst division in the NFL in the AFC South for a second consecutive season. Now they are getting some big-time line respect from the books in the wild card round, and I don’t think it’s warranted. I believe there to be a lot of value here with the Raiders as 4-point underdogs.

Just think back to the regular season meeting when the Raiders were 6.5-point favorites over the Texans in Mexico City and won 27-20. There has been a 10.5-point adjustment since that night in terms of the point spread, and that fact alone shows that there is value with the Raiders.

Of course, I realize Derek Carr is now out for the season, so that makes a difference. But I don’t think it is worth as much as oddsmakers are adjusting for. And it’s not like the quarterback situation in Oakland with Connor Cook starting is that much worse off than the one in Houston.  Cook actually played well against Denver's #1 pass defense last week, completing 14-of-21 passes for 150 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

The Texans are giving Brock Osweiler the start. He was benched in the Jacksonville game in Week 15 in favor of Tom Savage. Savage led them to a comeback 21-20 win, and then a 12-10 win over Cincinnati in Week 16 that clinched the division. Savage started against the Titans in Week 17, but was knocked out of the game with a concussion.

It’s well documented that Osweiler has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He ranks 29th out of 30 quarterbacks in QBR, with only Ryan Fitzpatrick being worse.  He is completing just 59 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions while averaging a measly 5.8 yards per attempt. He’s the reason the Texans rank just 29th in total offense at 314.7 yards per game, and 29th in passing offense at 198.5 yards per game.

I think that bad showing against the Broncos on the road has the Raiders undervalued here. They were shell-shocked once McGloin got injured. But now they’ve got a full week to get ready. And this is a team that went 12-4 this season against the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. I think that is being discounted way too much here.

One of my favorite wild card round systems involves backing teams that played the tougher schedule in the Sagarin ratings. Teams that played the tougher schedule have gone 40-16 SU & 40-15-1 ATS in the wild card round in the last 14 seasons. The Raiders played the 4th-toughest schedule, while the Texans played the 18th. When there is a 10 or more SOS difference between them, the team that played the tougher schedule has gone 23-4 SU & 22-4-1 ATS, and this matchup fits that criteria.

The Raiders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Oakland is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following an ATS loss. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet the Raiders Saturday.

15* Packers/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -3

Aaron Rodgers is oh-so-close to coming through on his prediction that the Packers would run the table after their 4-6 start to the season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS since, with their only non-cover coming against Chicago after they blew a late 17-point lead.  The other four wins have all come by 8 points or more.

I'm going to back Rodgers and company to finish the job they started.  They have all the momentum in the world right now, and I just don't think the Detroit Lions are the type of team that can stop them.  Especially with the way the Lions are playing right now.  I realize that we are paying a premium with the Packers here as 3-point road favorites, but I don't think it is going to matter.

Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the NFL right now.  He has thrown 14 touchdown passes without an interception in the past six games.  He carved up a great Minnesota defense last week for 347 passing yards and four touchdowns, while adding a rushing score in the 38-25 victory.  Rodgers threw four touchdown passes in the 34-27 win over the Lions in Week 3 and has consistently torched them throughout his career.  Keep in mind the Packers led that game 31-3 before calling off the dogs.

It's a minor miracle the Lions even have a chance to win their division.  They have actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 14 of their 15 games this season, and they only have nine wins because Matthew Stafford has an NFL record eight fourth-quarter comeback victories this season.  It was obvious their luck would run out, and it clearly has.

The Lions have been thoroughly outplayed in their last two games.  They lost 6-17 to the Giants and 21-42 to the Cowboys the last two weeks.  Stafford went a combined 71-of-120 passing (59.2%) with four interceptions in his last three games overall.  This came after he suffered ligament damage to his right middle finger in the 20-17 win over Chicago three weeks ago.  He hasn't been the same since.

And Stafford is getting a lot of love lately, but he is just 4-42 in his career against teams that finished the season with a winning record.  And Rodgers should torch a Lions secondary that ranks 32nd against the pass according to Pro Football Outsiders.  The Lions have allowed 73% completions to opposing quarterbacks on the season.  They've given up 29 touchdown passes while registering just 20 sacks, so their pass rush is an issue, too.  And star CB Darius Slay missed last week's game due to injury and is questionable to return this week.

The schedule makers did the Lions no favors here, either.  The Lions had to play the Cowboys on Monday Night Football last week, while the Packers played the Vikings on Saturday.  So the Packers will essentially have two more days to get ready for this game than the Lions, who put a lot into that MNF game to try and clinch a playoff spot.  This is a very tough situation for the Lions here working on a short week with all of their injuries.

Green Bay is 9-1 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.  Plays on road teams (GREEN BAY) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the last two weeks of the regular season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Packers are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 vs. NFC North opponents.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Detroit.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -7

The Atlanta Falcons are re-energized now after the Seahawks were upset by the Cardinals last week.  Now all the Falcons have to do is win this week against the Saints and they'll get the No. 2 seed and first-round bye.  They will certainly be locked in and focused to finish the job that they started and to have next week off.

The Falcons are playing better than anyone in the NFL right now.  They have won their last three games by an average of 24 points per game.  They have the league's top-ranked offense at 34 points and 413 yards per game on average.  What makes those numbers so impressive is that they've faced the league's toughest schedule in terms of opposing defenses played.

While the offense gets all the credit, and rightfully so, the defense is playing their best football of the season right now. The Falcons have allowed 19 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall, which is why they are blowing teams out on the regular.

I think the fact that the Saints haven't quit and have won their last two games over the Cardinals and Bucs the past two weeks is providing some line value here.  But we saw what happened earlier this season when these teams met in New Orleans.  The Falcons won that game 45-32 while racking up 442 total yards.  They can name their score on this awful Saints defense.

You could make the argument that the Falcons are the best team in the NFL.  They rank 1st in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play every time they snap the football.  The second-best mark in the league is 0.6 yards per play, which is a huge gap.

Atlanta is 7-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game this season.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. NFC South foes.  The Saints are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 17.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars showed me a lot last week in their 38-17 win over the Tennessee Titans.  Yes, Marcus Mariota was knocked out, but that game was over by the time he departed.  They outgained the Titans by 152 yards. What makes the win even more impressive is that the Titans needed it to keep their playoff hopes alive, and the Jaguars stepped up to the plate and denied them.

Obviously, the Jaguars should have made the switch to interim coach Doug Marrone a lot sooner.  He has previous head coaching experience in Buffalo and actually did a great job there.  The Jaguars have suffered seven losses by a TD or less this season, so they are way better than their record, but Gus Bradley just wasn't getting it done late in games.

Blake Bortles is coming off his best game of the season, and should have another huge game against this awful Colts secondary.  He completed 26-of-38 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and no picks against Tennessee.  In their 30-27 win over the Colts in London, Bortles threw for 207 yards and two touchdowns without a pick.  And the Jaguars beat the Colts 51-16 in their final meeting last year, throwing for 250 yards and three scores with zero INTs.

The Colts are in an awful spot here mentally.  They just had their dream-crushing loss to the Oakland Raiders last week, falling 25-33.  That loss officially eliminated them from the playoffs.  Now the quotes coming from the players and coaches are talking about how it was a lost season, and they are already looking ahead to next year.  They could care less about beating the Jaguars here after just getting eliminated from the playoffs last week.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are a very young team with some very nice pieces moving forward.  They will relish this opportunity to pull the season sweep of their division rivals, who have dominated this division for years.  There's no question in my mind that we are getting the more motivated team.  I'm also pretty sure we are getting the better team, and that team is catching 4.5 points.

The Jaguars actually rank 12th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 8.4 yards per game.  They have been led by a defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in giving up just 317.5 yards per game.  The Colts rank 22nd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 14.0 yards per game.  Their defense ranks 28th in the NFL in giving up 377.1 yards per game.  They just allowed 459 total yards to the Raiders last week in a game they needed to win.

Indianapolis is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games when revenging a close loss by 7 points or less.  Indianapolis is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

25* Lions/Cowboys MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on OVER 44.5

I think the best bet on this game is the OVER, and I'm clearly not the only one as this total has been bet up from 41.5 to 44.5 already.  But I still don't think it's enough.  These teams will be playing in perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium, so scoring will be plentiful.  And I think these are two of the most overrated defenses in the NFL.

The only reason the Cowboys have decent defensive numbers is because they have controlled the time of possession with their dominant offense.  But the Cowboys give up 5.6 yards per play this season, which is 19th in the NFL.  The Lions give up 5.8 yards per play, which is 25th in the NFL.  These aren't good defenses.

The Lions don't have a good running game, but Stafford will be primed for a huge day against a Cowboys defense that gives up 68.4 percent completions, 265 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt this season.  The Cowboys ranks 2nd in rushing offense at 154.5 yards per game, and they should have a huge day on the ground against a Lions defense that gives up 4.2 yards per carry, which ranks tied for 16th in the NFL.

The Lions have been padding their stats defensively against some awful quarterbacks.  In their last 11 games, they have faced Brian Hoyer, Carson Wentz, Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford (twice), Blake Bortles, Drew Brees, Matt Barkley and Eli Manning.  Only two of those guys are having good seasons in Cousins and Brees.  The Lions haven't seen an offense as potent as the Cowboys, which averages 26.1 points per game overall, including 27.3 points per game at home.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  We've seen 44 or more combined points in all six meetings.  The Cowboys and Lions are averaging 58.0 combined points in those six contests, which is nearly 14 points more than this posted total.  A big reason for that is because both of these teams play in domes, so the conditions are always perfect.

Dallas is 46-19 OVER in its last 65 home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better.   I think we're getting a ton of value here on the OVER because the Lions have gone under the total in eight straight, while the Cowboys have gone under in three straight coming in.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it. We'll see a shootout here Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Broncos/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

The Chiefs are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL. They have the raw numbers of a team that should be 4-10 instead of 10-4. They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse than them in this category, so they are in some pretty terrible company.

The Chiefs have been outgained in six of their last seven games overall. They have been outgained by a total of 619 yards in their last seven games. One of those was their fluke 30-27 (OT) win at Denver. They were outgianed by 191 yards by the Broncos in that contest. Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play while the Broncos averaged 6.7 yards per play in that contest. There’s no way the Chiefs should have won that game.

Now the Broncos are going to be out for revenge here in the rematch less than a month later. They are playing for their season right now as they have to win out to have a chance to make the playoffs. They will be the more motivated team as a result, and there’s no question they are the better team in my mind when you look at the numbers.

While the Chiefs have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, the Broncos have arguably the best defense. They rank 2nd in total defense at 310.9 yards per game and 1st in passing defense at 183.0 yards per game. They are also 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game allowed. The Chiefs certainly don’t have the playmakers to scare them here.

The Chiefs have no home-field advantage. They are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. That includes recent upset losses to the Bucs as 7-point home favorites and the Titans as 6-point home favorites. And home-field has meant nothing in this series, either. The road team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS int heir last seven trips to Kansas City.

Denver is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games when revenging a close loss against an opponent by 3 points or less. It is coming back to win 27.4 to 21.7 on average in this spot. The Broncos are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers Christmas Day No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -5.5

I’ve been riding the Steelers with a ton of success in recent weeks and I’m going to continue to do so this week. Once again I believe they are being under-priced here by oddsmakers as only 5.5-point home favorites. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, and I have backed them in all five games.

The Steelers may be the best team in the NFL. They have outgained eight straight opponents, which is the sign of a dominant team. They have outgained their last five opponents during their winning streak by a combined 663 yards, which is an average of 132.6 yards per game. No team has been better than them during this stretch.

I think the fact that the game against the Bengals last week was close is providing some line value here. But that game wasn’t nearly as close as the final of 24-20 showed. The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 160 yards and should have won by more, but they were held to six field goals to start the game before finally getting into the end zone. It’s unlike them to struggle in the red zone like that, and I don’t expect it to happen again this week.

Mike Tomlin is 57-21 all-time at Heinz Field, and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 27 touchdowns and only six interceptions in his last eight home games. The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season, winning by 8.2 points per game. One of their losses came against the Patriots without Roethlisberger, and the other came against the Cowboys in a fluky result that was lost when they went 0-for-4 on 2-point conversions.

Everyone knows that the Steelers have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but what is getting overlooked is how good this defense is playing. The Steelers are only allowing 14.0 points per game in their last five contests. They are also giving up just 250.0 total yards per game in their last five. They haven’t allowed more than 91 rushing yards in any of those five games, and they have held opponents to 219 passing yards or fewer in all five as well. This defense is playing as well as any in the NFL.

The Ravens are just 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season. Their offense is scoring just 18.8 points per game and averaging 313 yards per game on the road. They have lost each of their last four road games with a 4-point loss to the Giants, an 8-point loss to the Jets, a 10-point loss to the Cowboys and a 7-point loss to the Patriots. So, they’ve struggled to even stay within a touchdown of teams on the road.

Pittsburgh wants revenge badly from losing four straight meetings with the Ravens. But that is skewed a bit because of injuries to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger was a game-time decision in their 14-21 loss to the Ravens earlier this season. He was rusty, and the Ravens scored on a punt block TD and a 95-yard TD. It was the definition of a fluky result.

In another loss Michael Vick was their starting quarterback, and in another loss they had to pick up a running back off the streets on game week. The key for me is that the Steelers are a much different team now than when they played back on November 6th. They are hitting on all cylinders and playing their best football of the season. They are also as healthy as they have been all year.

The Ravens are dealing with some key injuries right now, including one to cornerback Jimmy Smith. He missed last week’s game against the Eagles and it’s unlikely he returns this week. He is their top cover corner, and it’s not even close. He has had success in the past against Antonio Brown, too, and if he doesn’t play it would be a massive loss for the Ravens.

The Steelers thrive this time of year, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 December games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10. The Ravens are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 December games. Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

But my favorite trend of all is that the Steelers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games when they are playing with same-season division revenge.  They have bounced back to cover the spread each of the last 11 times they have lost to an AFC North opponent in their first meeting of the season.  That's the sign of a resilient team, and I expect a huge effort from Pittsburgh here Sunday with the AFC North title at stake.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* Bengals/Texans AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Houston +1

The Texans have plenty of motivation right now. If they win out they will win the division, and they even have a shot at a wild card if they don’t win out. But either way they should be focused despite the fact that they could lose this game and beat the Titans next week and win the division as well.

Houston beat Indianapolis 22-17 on the road two weeks ago, and showed a lot of heart in fighting back from a 13-0 deficit to beat the Jaguars last week. Brock Osweiler single-handedly dug them that 13-0 deficit with two interceptions in his own territory. Then he was replaced by Tom Savage, and the crowd erupted in cheers.

Savage fed off of the momentum and led the Texans back to a 21-20 victory. He finished 23 of 36 for 260 yards without an interception. And this game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score showed. The Texans outgained the Jaguars by 237 yards and held them to just 150 yards of total offense.

Now Savage is going to start again this week, and I think he can only be an upgrade over Osweiler, who the Texans have been winning in spite of. And the Texans are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to the Chargers a few weeks back, who were coming off their bye week, while the Texans were in a bad spot coming off a Monday Night Football game in Mexico City.

I really question Cincinnati’s motivation this week. The Bengals have already been eliminated from the playoffs with their heartbreaking loss to the Steelers last week. They led that game 20-6, but they were shut out in the second half and lost 20-24. Off such an emotional loss to their biggest rivals, and with the Ravens on deck, I don’t expect the Bengals to show up at all this week.  And they were outgained by 160 yards by the Steelers last week, so it wasn't as close as the final score.

The Bengals have some injury issues right now in which they could be extra cautious with given their standing. Tight end Tyler Eifert is out with a back injury, while LB Vontaze Burfict is out with a concussion.  WR AJ Green and RB Jeremy Hill are probable, but nowhere near 100%.  Don't be surprised if the Bengals are cautious with these two given they have nothing to play for.

The reason the Texans have been able to overcome their offensive woes this season for an 8-6 record is because of their defense, which now ranks 1st in the NFL in allowing just 306.5 yards per game. Most people don’t give this defense the credit it deserves because JJ Watt is out, but they really haven’t missed a beat. And as long as Tom Savage takes care of the ball better than Osweiler did before him, they will be just fine.

Cincinnati is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Bengals are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. The Texans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet the Texans Saturday.

15* Giants/Eagles NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York -1.5

I simply trust the New York Giants more in this spot.  They have a lot more to play for right now.  They will be super motivated to punch their tickets to the playoffs with a win Thursday night.  It would be the first time in five seasons that they would make the postseason, so they couldn't possibly be more motivated right now.

For whatever reason, the Giants just don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  I think it's because the betting public doesn't flock to poor offensive teams like the Giants.  But defense wins championships as we've seen, and the Giants have won of the best in the business.

The Giants rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.9 points per game on the season.  They have held the Cowboys and Lions, two likely playoff teams, to a total of 13 points the past two weeks.  This defense just keeps getting better as the season has gone on.

The Eagles are a mess right now as they've lost seven of their last eight games overall.  Carson Wentz now has the second-worst passer rating in the NFL ahead of only Jared Goff.  And the defense has been atrocious, giving up at least 26 points in five straight and seven of their last eight contests.  The Giants should get their offense going this week, too.

New York is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 road games coming off two consecutive home wins.  Plays on road teams (NY GIANTS) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the last two weeks of the regular season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Giants Thursday.

20* Panthers/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +6.5

This line seems like a classic overreaction from the betting public. They see a team like Washington in the hunt for a playoff spot and back them because of the ‘must-win’ factor. They see the Carolina Panthers at 5-8, and though they’re not eliminated from the playoffs, they expect them not to show up.

I think this false public perception has provided some line value on the Panthers here. The Redskins have been bet up from -4 to -6.5 already this week and it could get to 7. The Panthers clearly have not quit as they came back and beat the Chargers 28-16 at home last week. And almost every player shows up for Monday Night Football, so I’m not worried about any motivation concerns here.

“There is no room for error and we have to rely on certain other things happening,” head coach Ron Rivera said. “At the end of the day, our concern is our next game. We play the Redskins on Monday night and I believe our guys are going to prep and get ready. … Our intention is to win them all.”

The Redskins have only been favored by more than a field goal once all season. That came as 7.5-point home favorites over the Browns in a game they easily could have lost as they were trailing in the 4th quarter. If they were only 7.5-point favorites over the Browns, they certainly shouldn’t be 6.5-point favorites over the Panthers. And they have only won two games this season by more than a touchdown.

I think Carolina will be able to keep pace with Washington here as Cam Newton is healthy and the offense should move the football and score points. The Redskins give up 24.4 points per game, 370 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season. The back door will always be open for the Panthers against this suspect defense.

Carolina could get the return of Luke Kuechly this week as he came back to practice and has been cleared to play. That would be a nice boost for a defense that is coming off one of its best performances of the season last week. The Panthers held a very good San Diego offense to just 16 points and 278 yards while forcing five turnovers.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least. The Panthers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Redskins, winning by an average of 13.0 points per game. They won 44-16 at home last season as 7-point favorites over the Redskins. They held Washington to just 186 total yards in the win. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Washington is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 Monday night home games. The Redskins are 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the past two seasons. The Redskins are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* Bucs/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay +7

I’ve been fading the Cowboys with a ton of success here down the stretch. I cashed in the Redskins +7 against them three weeks ago, and the Giants +4 against them last week. The Cowboys have consistently been overvalued due to their 11-game winning streak, and they continue to be overvalued here as 7-point home favorites.

The Bucs continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers despite playing as well as almost anyone here down the stretch. The Bucs are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have gone on the road and beaten both the Chiefs and Chargers as underdogs. They also beat the Bears and Seahawks as home underdogs before taking care of business in the favorite role against the Saints last week.

No team has played better defensively than the Bucs over the past five weeks. The Bucs have given up a league-low 12.8 points per game since Week 10. The six total touchdowns scored by opponents are tied for the fewest during that span. They have also held opponents to an average of 281.0 yards per game while forcing 14 turnovers in this stretch.

I know the Tampa Bay offense hasn’t been spectacular, but the biggest key for them is that they have a healthy Doug Martin back running the football. Just the threat of a running game has made the Bucs tough to stop. They are committing to the run, too, rushing at least 30 times in every game during this five-game streak. They will lean on Martin again to try and take some of the pressure off of Winston.

However, I think Winston is going to have a huge game against this overrated Cowboys defense. Dallas benefits from its offense holding onto the ball and controlling time of possession. But make no mistake, this Dallas defense is vulnerable. The Cowboys allow 69.7% completions and 268 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. They also rank 21st in the NFL in allowing 5.7 yards per play.

Jason Garrett is 11-25 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Dallas. Garrett is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won five or six of the last seven games as the coach of the Cowboys. Tampa Bay is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. The Bucs are 10-2 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams who allow at least 5.65 yards per play over the last three years. Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Take the Bucs Sunday.

15* Pats/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver +3

At 8-5 on the season, the Denver Broncos are tied with the Miami Dolphins for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  It's safe to say that they need this win more than the Patriots, who are basically guaranteed of a first-round bye.  I think we'll get a big effort from the Broncos here.

I still think the Broncos are one of the best teams in the NFL.  So the Patriots being 3-point road favorites here indicates that they would be 9-point favorites in New England.  I would take the Broncos in a heartbeat at that price.  And the Ravens were only 6.5-point dogs in New England last week.  The Broncos are better than the Ravens, and it's not all that close.

Now the Patriots are on a short week here after playing a big game against the Ravens on Monday Night Football.  Not only are they on a short week, but now they will have to play in the altitude in Denver.  And it's safe to say that playing in Denver hasn't been too kind to the Patriots in the past.

Indeed, the Broncos are 15-3 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against New England.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Patriots.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Broncos won both meetings at home with the Patriots last year as underdogs.  Tom Brady has been terrible in Denver.

I also believe the Broncos have the best defense in the NFL, so Brady is going to struggle again, especially with his lack of weapons right now in the passing game.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense at 310.7 yards per game and 1st in yards per play defense, giving up only 4.6 yards per play.  They are also 1st in the league against the pass, allowing just 183.5 passing yards per game.

Both CB Aqib Talib and LB DeMarcus Ware recently returned to the lineup, and this defense has been dominant the last few weeks.  The Broncos gave up only 273 yards and 3.6 yards per play to the Chiefs, 233 yards and 4.1 yards per play to the Jaguar sand 253 yards and 3.9 yards per play to the Titans.

Paxton Lynch has been forced into action three times this season, including two starts, because of the injuries to Trevor Siemian.  Lynch is only averaging 6.0 yards per attempt while Siemian is at 7.3 per attempt.  Siemian is playing better than Payton Manning did last year.  He just returned against the Titans from injury last week, and he played great in the second half and nearly led them to a comeback victory.  Now Siemian will be a week healthier and should be closer to full strength.

New England is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons.  The Broncos are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Roll with the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

I have been on the Steelers three of the last four weeks and they've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They came through for me against the Browns, Giants and Bills.  Their 27-20 win over the Bills last week was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, too.  I'm going to keep riding them this week.

The Steelers won by a touchdown over the Bills last week despite Ben Roethlisberger having an uncharacteristic off game with three interceptions.  Le'Veon Bell actually finished with more yards from scrimmage than Buffalo by himself.

The Steelers outgained the Bills by 185 yards.  They have outgained each of their last seven opponents and nine of their last 10 overall.  That is the sign of a dominant team.  They are in playoff mode right now and hitting on all cylinders.  Their defense has been great, giving up just 12.5 points per game in their last four contests.

Pittsburgh absolutely hates Cincinnati.  The Bengals have a knack for hurting their best players, which is the biggest reason for their hatred.  And they have certainly taken out their frustration on the Bengals in recent history.  They have won three straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Bengals.

I think the fact that the Bengals have won their last two games and haven't quit despite basically being eliminated from the playoffs has actually provided us some value here.  It is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But those two wins came against the Browns and Eagles, who both appear to have quit themselves.

Cincinnati has now played four straight terrible offensive teams in Buffalo, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Cleveland.  Now they'll be up against one of the top offenses in the NFL, and I don't think the Bengals have the firepower to keep up with all their injuries on offense right now.

The Steelers are now 11-2 ATS in their last 13 December games.  The Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 16-4-2 ATS in its last 22 trips to Cincinnati.  Playing on the road in this series clearly hasn't been an issue for the Steelers.  They are consistently undervalued in Cincinnati, and I believe that to be the case again here with them listed as only 3-point favorites.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +15.5

It's time to buy low on the Los Angeles Rams.  They are more undervalued right now than they have been at any point this season, and that's certainly reflected in this 16-point spread.  They are coming off three straight losses by 16 points or more against non-division opponents.

I think the Rams will play with some fire this week as they step back within the division to face the Seahawks.  I also like the fact that they fired head coach Jeff Fisher, because that first game with an interim coach usually provides a spark for the players.  In this case it will be special teams coach John Fassel serving as the interim head coach.

The Rams always play the Seahawks tough.  In fact, they are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  All four wins were outright upsets as they were dogs of 3.5, 5.5, 6.5 and 11.5 points.  The lone loss was a 14-point setback in Seattle, and I think the Seahawks are going to have a very hard time putting them away by more than two touchdowns here.

We got to see first-hand just how poor the Seattle secondary would be in their first game without Earl Thomas last week.  They allowed the highest passer rating of the Pete Carroll era in a 10-38 loss to the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers completed 18 of 23 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns against this Seattle defense.

Los Angeles still boasts an elite defense that has had the Seahawks' number.  The Rams have allowed just 20 points and a combined 126 rushing yards in their last two meetings with the Seahawks.  This defensive line will stop the run again, and I'm not so sure Russell Wilson can beat the secondary after throwing five interceptions against the Packers last week.

Plays on road teams (LA RAMS) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams (LA RAMS) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in three straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

25* Ravens/Pats MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore +7

The betting public and the oddsmakers aren't giving the Ravens the amount of respect they deserve.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NFL since the beginning of the season.  They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 406 yards.

In fact, the Ravens now rank 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 51.6 yards per game on the season.  The key has been a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense (296.1 yards/game) and 1st against the run (73.8 yards/game).  This has a chance to be the best run defense in NFL history.

That's important because the Ravens can make the Patriots a one-dimensional passing team.  The Patriots aren't nearly as effective when they can't run the ball.  That's because Tom Brady is playing with limited weapons right now with both Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola out.

The Patriots have been able to get by the past two weeks without Gronk because they have been up against two of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They beat the Jets 22-17 on the road and the Rams 26-10 at home.  The Ravens are starting to click offensively, especially after Joe Flacco threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-6 win against the Dolphins last week.

Getting a full touchdown here with the Ravens is a tremendous value.  That's especially the case when you consider 24 of the last 29 Baltimore games have been decided by 8 points or less.  It's also the case when you consider how tough Baltimore has played New England in recent years.  Indeed, the Patriots have only beaten the Ravens one time by more than 6 points in their last nine meetings.

The Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last eight after leading their previous game by 21 points or more at halftime.  They are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.3 points per game in this spot.  Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games.  The Ravens are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record.  The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to New England.

Plays on underdogs 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the second half of the season are 71-37 (65.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +4

The Cowboys are way overvalued right now due to their 11-game winning streak. That has shown up the last two weeks as they have failed to cover in a 5-point win over Washington as 7-point home favorites, and a 2-point win at Minnesota as 3-point favorites. And the Cowboys were outgained by 152 yards by the Redskins and by 54 yards by the Vikings.

Let’s just compare the line from the first game between these teams to see how overvalued the Cowboys really are. The Giants were 1-point road favorites in Week 1. By that theory, they should be roughly 7-point home favorites in the rematch when you factor in 3 points for home-field advantage. Instead, they are 4-point dogs, which is essentially provides us with 11 points of value. I’m not saying they should be 7-point favorites, but they certainly shouldn’t be underdogs after being favored at Dallas in the opener.

The Giants boast a terrific passing game that can take advantage of this awful Dallas pass defense, which is allowing 70.3% completions and 277 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.  The Cowboys have been terrible on defense all season, but that has been masked by their offense, which has been able to control the time of possession. That isn’t likely to happen in this game, and that defense will get exposed.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks 27th in yards per play (5.8), 29th in sack percentage (4.6%), 32nd in interception rate (0.8%) and 28th in yards per drive (36.4) allowed. That’s not the sign of a good defense, and Eli Manning, Odell Bechkam, Sterling Shephard and company should be able to make plenty of plays against Dallas to lead the Giants to victory.

The reason the Cowboys won’t be able to control the time of possession is because the Giants are so good against the run. Indeed, the Giants are 5th in the NFL in run defense, giving up just 91.4 rushing yards per game. They are also tied for 3rd in allowing just 3.6 yards per carry this season. They will be able to limit Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ rushing attack here. Dallas only gained 101 yards on 30 carries in the first meeting, which is just 3.4 yards per carry.

The Giants are 5-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by two points to the Washington Redskins. New York is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Dallas.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +3

Two weeks ago before playing the Eagles on Monday Night Football, Aaron Rodgers said the Packers were going to run the table. Well, so far so good. Green Bay has saved its season with a 27-13 win as 4-point dogs at Philadelphia and a 21-13 home win over Houston as 7-point favorites last week. It is now just two games behind Detroit in the division and very much alive in the wild card race.

I think the fact that the Seahawks blew out the Panthers on National TV last Sunday night has them overvalued here. The betting public is all over them now. But that was an awful spot for the Panthers. They were coming off a crushing loss in Oakland the previous week that essentially eliminated them from the playoffs. And the Seahawks wanted revenge from two losses to the Panthers last season, including the NFC Championship Game.

The Packers have made a commitment to running the football the past couple weeks. They ran it 28 times against the Eagles and 26 against the Texans. They have been able to control the time of possession in both games as they have been consistently moving the sticks. That has benefited their defense, which has given up just 13.0 points per game over the past two weeks.

The Seahawks aren’t nearly as good on the road as they are at home. They are just 2-3 in road games this season, compared to 6-0 at home. Seattle is scoring just 15.3 points per game on the road this year.  And Green Bay is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.

The Packers have at least a 4-point home field advantage, and it’s pushing 5 points when it comes to the month of December when it gets colder out.  So this line is essentially saying that the Seahawks would be at least a 7-point favorite on a neutral field, and I'm not buying that.  Aaron Rodgers is 14-1 straight up in his last 15 December home starts.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings. The Packers are 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks. You have to go all the way back to 1999 to find the last time Seattle won in Green Bay. And not to mention, team captain Earl Thomas has been lost for the season due to injury. If there’s any quarterback who can take advantage of an absence like Thomas, it’s certainly Rodgers.

The Seahawks are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a home blowout win by 21 points or more. Green Bay is 9-1 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half of last game over the past three seasons. The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7.5

The Detroit Lions have no business being favored by more than a touchdown against any team in the NFL.  Especially not a division rival like the Chicago Bears who continue to play hard and would love to put a blemish on the Lions' record here.

This line is a classic overreaction from the week before.  The Lions went on the road and shocked the Saints in a 28-13 victory as 6-point underdogs.  But that was the first time all season that the Lions won by more than a touchdown.  In fact, 11 of Detroit's 12 games this season have been decided by 7 points or less, and that alone shows you that there is value with the Bears here.

Not to mention, the Lions are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL due to their 8-4 record.  But they have actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 11 of their 12 games this season, which makes it nearly impossible to be 8-4.  The raw numbers show that the Lions aren't very good.  They rank 23rd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 17.5 yards per game.  They also 22nd in yards per play differential (-0.2), gaining 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.8 per play on defense.

If you just look at the stats, you would think the Bears are actually the better team.  The Bears actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential (+0.6).  They gain 5.7 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.1 per play on defense.  They Bears are also 10th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game on the season.

The Bears beat the Lions 17-14 at home as 3-point dogs in their first meeting.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bears outgained the Lions by 145 yards in that contest. Their offense racked up 408 total yards while their defense only gave up 263.  They held Matthew Stafford to 213 passing yards and two interceptions without a touchdown.  The Lions' only touchdown in that game came on an 85-yard punt return with less than two minutes to play.

I like what I've seen from Matt Barkley recently.  He is a gamer who doesn't make many mistakes.  And Barkley would have put up even bigger numbers the past two weeks if it wasn't for drops.  Bears receivers dropped 10 balls against the Titans in a game they should have won, and several more last week against the 49ers.  Had they caught some of them, that would have been a bigger blowout than the 26-6 final against San Francisco showed.

But Jordan Howard had a big day, rushing for 117 yards and three touchdowns for the Bears, and he should have a big game against this Lions' defense.  Detroit has had to play some of its safety's at linebacker because of injuries to their top two LB's in DeAndre Levy and Tahir Whitehead.  The Saints didn't take advantage of it last week as they only ran the ball 12 times.  Chicago won't make that same mistake.  Look for a heavy dose of Howard in this one.

Chicago is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 off three straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.   The Lions are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.  Detroit is 0-7 ATS in its last seven after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average at least 7 yards per attempt over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last two years.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Chicago.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

As the weather has gotten colder, the Pittsburgh Steelers have played their best football of the season. The Steelers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They are coming off three straight double-digit blowout victories and I expect them to continue to roll Sunday.

The Steelers have moved into a first-place tie with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. The Ravens play the Patriots on the road this week, so this is their chance to overtake them. And with how well they’re playing right now, the Steelers should be favored by more than 2.5 points against the Bills.

The Bills will have a hard time getting back up off the mat this week after blowing a golden opportunity in Oakland last weekend. They led that game 24-9 in the third quarter, but gave up 29 unanswered points and wound up losing by 14. I simply do not like the state of mind of this team after that kind of loss, especially since their chances of making the playoffs are now slim to none. They would need to run the table, and even that might not be enough.

The Bills are now just 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their two wins have come against the Bengals and Jaguars. They beat the Bengals by 4 the same day that they lost both AJ Green and Giovani Bernard, and they were fortunate to beat the Jaguars after trailing most the way at home in that game.

The Steelers have outgained six straight opponents and eight of their last nine, which is the sign of a dominant team. They outgained the Giants by 155 yards last week in one of their most complete performances of the season. Ben Roethlisberger now has a full compliment of weapons, especially with the return of TE LaDarius Green, who caught six balls for 110 yards and a score last week.

The defense is starting to play more like the Steel Curtain units of the past. The Steelers have allowed a total of 30 points in their last three games and an average of 10.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bills have allowed 28 or more points in four of their last six. I see the Steelers hanging a big number on them here and Buffalo not being able to catch up.

The key to stopping the Bills is stopping the run, and the Steelers have been great at that this season. They rank 6th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 92 rushing yards per game. The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games. The Bills are 12-26-2 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Buffalo.  The one-sided nature of this series continues this week.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

 20* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Oakland +3.5

The Oakland Raiders are going to be out for revenge from their 26-10 loss to the Chiefs earlier this season. That was actually the last time they lost a game, as they have reeled off six straight victories since. And it was an awful spot for the Raiders as the Chiefs were coming off their bye week with a big advantage in rest.

But the Raiders have been rolling since, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming in a 3-point win over Carolina as 3.5-point favorites. The other five wins all came by 6 points or more. The offense is hitting on all cylinders, scoring at least 27 points in all six games. And the defense has steadily improved, allowing 24 or fewer points in five of the six contests.

This is an Oakland offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 points per game and 5th in total offense at 391.7 yards per game. The Chiefs rank just 23rd in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. They just have trouble moving the football this season, and their defense hasn’t been any better, ranking 29th in total defense at 384.9 yards per game.

As you can see, the Chiefs are 9-3 despite ranking 23rd in total offense and 29th in total defense. If that’s not overachieving I don’t know what is. They rank 29th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 51.6 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some very poor company. They have been outgained in five straight games despite going 4-1 over that time frame.

At some point, the Chiefs’ luck is going to run out because this isn’t a very good football team. They are winning with smoke and mirrors. A whopping 16 of their 29 points last week came from their defense and special teams against the Falcons in a game they should have lost. They also got 9 points from their defensive and special teams in a win over the Broncos the week before. And four weeks ago, their offense didn’t score a touchdown and they beat the Panthers.

But we saw what happened when the Chiefs couldn’t get points from their defense or special teams in their last home game in Week 11. They lost 17-19 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs as 7-point favorites. And that game wasn’t even as close as the final score because the Bucs outgained them by 99 yards and were held to four field goals. The Chiefs have been outgained by a total of 592 yards in their last five games, which equates to 118.4 yards per game. That’s not the sign of a good football team.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series between Oakland and Kansas City. In fact, the road team is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings. The Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Kansas City. And Oakland has been a tremendous road team over the past few seasons. The Raiders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS on the road this season alone.

And the Chiefs certainly haven't had any home-field advantages of late.  They are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Kansas City is also 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  It will be cold in Kansas City tonight, but the winds will be in the single-digits, which helps Oakland's elite passing attack.  Bet the Raiders Thursday.

20* Colts/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +1.5

The Jets may be just 3-8 this season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule and not their performance on the field.  They have played the 5th-toughest schedule this season.  Now things finally lighten up a bit for them as they play the Colts, 49ers and Dolphins over the next three weeks.  I think you'll see much better results from them going forward.

I know the Jets have lost three straight, but they've been in all three games as the losses have come by 4, 3 and 5 points.  They nearly beat the New England Patriots at home last week in a 17-22 loss after the Patriots scored late in the fourth quarter to take the lead for good.  While sometimes a team would be in for a letdown after facing the Patriots, that won't be the case tonight because teams always get up for Monday Night Football.

A big problem for the Jets has been turnovers as they rank 31st in the league in turnover differential (-14).  They have only eight takeaways all season, which is absurd.  Their defense is better than that as it ranks 15th in the NFL at 348.7 yards per game allowed.  Over the last three weeks the Jets have given up fewer than 5 yards per pass attempt in each game.

Andrew Luck has been sacked 36 times this season, and the Jets still have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. They should get after him here and should win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  The Colts rank 30th in total defense, giving up 27.4 points and 395.0 yards per game.  They rank 26th against the run and are giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season.  They are also 30th against the pass and 31st in yards per play allowed at 6.2.

Look for Matt Forte to get it going tonight and take some of the pressure off of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is still an average quarterback in this league despite the interceptions.  Forte has amassed 508 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns in his past five contests.  The Jets went to a short passing game against the Patriots last week and it worked.

Indianapolis may be in the playoff hunt at 5-6 on the season, but make no mistake, this is not a good team.  It has played the 6th-easiest schedule this season.  The Colts have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.  They rank 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 42.6 yards per game on average.  The Jets have only been outgained by 13.6 yards per game this season to compare.

The Jets are 2-0 against Andrew Luck in his career.  Luck has completed just 43 of 81 passes for 530 yards with one touchdown, five interceptions and a 52.0 career passer rating.  He has also been sacked five times.  Colts quarterbacks have been sacked 3.5 times per game this season.

New York is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 home games off a home loss.  The Jets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games in December.  Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Colts are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in New York.  Bet the Jets Monday.

20* Giants/Steelers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a dog fight with the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North lead.  They are finally as healthy as they've been all season, and it is starting to show as they are coming off back-to-back blowout road wins over the Browns and Colts.  Now they've had extra time to prepare for this game after blasting Indianapolis on Thanksgiving Night.

The Steelers have outgained five straight opponents and seven of their last eight overall.  They are legitimately a Top 5 team in the NFL as they rank 5th in point differential, outscoring opponents by 44 points on the season despite dealing with injuries and suspensions to their best players.  But that is no longer an issue from them, and we'll see their best going forward given the position they are in in the AFC North.

The New York Giants are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL.  They are nowhere near as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  They have only outscored their opponents by 18 points on the season, and 14 of those came last week against the Browns.  The key for them is that they've gone an unsustainable 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  No worries, this one won't be decided by that margin.

The Giants rank 25th in yardage differential on the season, which isn't something you would expect from an 8-3 team.  And they've certainly taken advantage of a very soft schedule.  The Giants have played the 5th-easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers have played the 12th-toughest.

After losing back-to-back home games to the Patriots and Cowboys, the Steelers will get back on track in a big way at home here.  They haven't lost three straight at home since 2003.  Mike Tomlin is 56-21 all-time at Heinz Field and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 25 touchdowns against five interceptions in his past seven home games.  The Steelers' defense is at their best when the stop the run, and that won't be an issue because the Giants are 31st in rushing offense.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game over the past two seasons.  Tomlin is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in December.  The Giants are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Green Bay Packers -5.5

The Green Bay Packers came up with a season-saving victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football last week.  Not only did they win that game, they dominated, beating the Eagles 27-13 as 4-point dogs and outgaining them by 95 yards.

Now the Packers have new life as they are just two games back of the Detroit Lions for the division lead.  And the Vikings lost on Thursday to the Cowboys, while the Lions aren't likely to win in New Orleans this week.  That means a win Sunday would put the Packers just one game back in the division and with the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lions having beaten them earlier this season.  They have everything to play for right now.

The Houston Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They may be 6-5 on the season, but they are nowhere near as good as their record.  They rank 28th in the NFL in yards per play differential.  A big reason for that is their terrible offense, which ranks 29th in total offense at 316.9 yards per game and 29th in scoring offense at 17.6 points per game.  The Texans also rank 31st in yards per play (4.8).

Houston has been a great home team, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Texans are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season, getting outscored by 13.4 points per game in the process.  Their offense is only scoring 13.2 points per game and averaging 279.2 yards per game on the road.  And their only road win this season came against the Jaguars when the Texans were coming off their bye week.

Brock Osweiler simply isn't going to be able to match Aaron Rodgers score for score.  Osweiler is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt with a 12-to-13 TD/INT ratio.  Rodgers looked great against the Eagles with the short passing game, taking pressure off the defense, which he will continue to do this week.  And he also has the threat of a running game now with a healthy James Starks, which is something the Packers haven't had for much of the season.

The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Green Bay is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  I expect one of the best performances of the season from Green Bay this week against the hapless Texans.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3.5

The Atlanta Falcons are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL this season.  They have gone 7-4 despite playing the NFL's toughest schedule to this point.  And all four of their losses have come by single-digits.  They rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.0 yards per play on the season.

The Falcons are 3rd in total offense and 1st in yards per play.  They average 6.6 yards per play every time they snap the football.  They beat Arizona 38-19 at home last week.  What I liked about that win was that Julio Jones was held to 35 receiving yards, yet they still scored 38 points.  That just goes to show you how dynamic this offense is as there are weapons everywhere.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the most fraudulent team in the NFL.  Just look at last week when they turned a safety into 9 points after Tyreke Hill returned a punt for a TD on the next play.  They were outgained by 191 yards by the Broncos last week.  Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play in that game, and their defense games up 6.7 yards per play to the Broncos.  They were lucky to win that game to say the least.

The Chiefs now rank 30th in the NFL in yardage differential.  They're getting outgained by 54 yards per game on average.  They also rank 27th in yards per play differential.  They lead the league in turnover differential at +14, and it just seems that if their defense or special teams doesn't score for them, they can't win.  I just don't trust these types of teams.

This is also an awful spot for the Chiefs.  They are coming off an emotional OT win on Sunday Night Football against the Broncos, and now they have a huge game against division-leading Oakland on deck Thursday.  That makes this a sandwich game for them.

Road teams who are coming off an overtime game are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS while losing by 16.7 points per game in their last nine tries.  Kansas City is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. excellent passing teams who average 7.5 or more yards per attempt.  The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

20* Cowboys/Vikings NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 44

It's well documented that the Vikings have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  In fact, they rank last in the league in total offense at 294.9 yards per game.  They are also last in the NFL in yards per play at 4.8 yards per play.

The Vikings have no running game as they rank last in the NFL at 71.1 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.  That means that a lot has been put on Sam Bradford's shoulders.  He has played well and hasn't turned the ball over much, but he just isn't able to stretch the field.

Last week against the Lions, the average distance of Bradford's pass attempts traveled 3.7 yards past the line of scrimmage.  That was tied for the lowest number of any team during the 2016 season.  Bradford is completing over 70% of his passes in his last four games, but the Vikings only have one play that has gone for 40 or more yards in those four contests.

So, the Vikings are essentially using their short passing game as their running game.  They are completing a high percentage of passes, but they aren't going for much yardage.  This works great for UNDERs because it keep the clock moving, just like a running game would.  But the Vikings just aren't getting many points to show for it.

The good news for the Vikings is that they can be competitive in this game because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in scoring defense (17.5 PPG) and 3rd in total defense at 307.0 yards per game allowed.  They are tied for 3rd with 4.9 yards per play allowed.  They have a tremendous defensive line that will not only slow down Ezekiel Elliott, but also give Dak Prescott more trouble than perhaps he has had all season with their blitzing.

Dallas is one of the few teams that actually runs the ball more than it throws it this season.  That should keep the clock moving as well, just as the Vikings will do with their limited, short passing attack.  I look for both teams to really struggle when they get down in the red zone.  The Cowboys haven't struggled in this area much this season, but the task is much taller against this Vikings' defense.

Dallas is 6-0 UNDER in road games off one or more straight overs over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 8-1 UNDER  versus good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Dallas is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 road games vs. good passing defenses that allow 5.7 or fewer yards per attempt.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Vikings last 29 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Packers/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Green Bay +4.5

The Green Bay Packers will be laying it all on the line tonight to try and get a victory to salvage their season.  They realize that with a win they are only two games back in the NFC North of the Detroit Lions, who they hold the tiebreaker with.  This division is still winnable, so not all is lost for the Packers.

Due to four straight losses, the Packers are to the point where they are as undervalued as they'll get this season.  We are getting them as 4.5-point underdogs, which is their biggest dog role this season and one of their biggest over the past couple seasons.  There's a good chance this game is decided by a field goal either way, so I like the value here. I also like the mental state of this team coming in.

"We have the right kind of men," head coach Mike McCarthy said. "This group of men, we're going to get to where we want to go. I'm fully confident in that. The process, the approach, the preparation, we're going to get this the way it needs to be. This locker room is awesome.

"We've got to win. We get that. It's about results. But everything leading up to that, I'm very pleased with. So we're just going to keep stoking our fire and we're going to do everything we need to do this week and prepare to go beat Philadelphia."

Despite being 5-5 on the season, the Eagles' playoff chances are no better than the Packers right now.  They have no chance of winning their division because the Cowboys are running away with it, so their only shot will be a wild card berth.  And after a 3-0 start, the Eagles have gone 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall to fall back down to earth.  I don't think this team deserves to be laying 4.5 points against a team the caliber of the Packers with the way they're playing right now.

Plays on road teams (GREEN BAY) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 54-21 (72%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  McCarthy is 27-9 ATS vs. mistake prone teams who commit 60 or more penalty yards per game as the coach of Green Bay.  McCarthy is 18-6 ATS off a 2-game road trip as the coach of Green Bay.  Roll with the Packers Monday.

25* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver -3

The Denver Broncos are fresh off their bye week and tied with the Kansas City Chiefs are 7-3 on the season.  They know they cannot afford to lose this game if they want to win the division again, so they have certainly been focused over this bye week.

The bye came at a great time too because the Broncos were banged-up.  But now they are as healthy as they have been all season.  Fullback Andy Janovich had his cast removed and should be a receiving threat now while also aiding his lead blocking and blitz pickup.  Defensive end Derek Wolfe returned to practice after missing the last game, and CB Aqib Talib also returned to practice after sitting out since October 24th.

The Chiefs are as banged-up as they've been all season.  Linebacker Derrick Johnson is dealing with soreness in his Achilles tendon and is questionable.  The availability of wide receiver Jeremy Macin (groin), linebacker Dee Ford (hamstring), defensive tackle Dontari Pope (back), and running Charcandrick West (concussion) remains uncertain.  Cornerback Marcus Peters (hip) and linebacker Tamba Hali (knee) also had some limitations in practice in the days leading up to the game.

Kansas City's 7-3 record is very fraudulent.  It has the best turnover differential in the NFL at +13, which is unsustainable.  When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that this team isn't very good.  That's why I faded them last week and took the Bucs +7.5 in an outright 19-17 win, and I'll gladly fade them again here as they are overvalued catching just three points against the defending Super Bowl champs on the road.

Kansas City ranks 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 39.9 yards per game on the season.  Only the Colts, Browns and 49ers have been worse in that department, so the Chiefs are in some very poor company.  Their lackluster offense only averages 333.8 yards per game, and their defense has taken a big step back this year in giving up 373.7 yards. per game.  The Broncos' rushing attack should be able to exploit a KC defense that is giving up 121 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

The Chiefs have been outgained in three straight and seven of their last nine games overall.  They were outgained by 99 yards by the Bucs last week.  They were outgained by 85 yards by the Panthers and won that game despite not scoring an offensive touchdown, which was very fluky as Carolina gave it away by blowing a 17-0 lead with turnovers.  And the Chiefs were very fortunate to beat the Jaguars 19-14 the previous week because they were outgained by a whopping 218 yards in that contest.

Denver is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  It is winning in this spot by an average of 8.0 points per game.  The Broncos are 8-1 ATS off a win by 6 points or less, coming back to win by 10.3 points per game in this spot.  The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Denver is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season winning by 6.8 points per game.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Panthers/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Carolina +3

From a schedule standpoint I really like the Carolina Panthers this week.  They played last Thursday in a 23-20 win over the New Orleans Saints.  They have now had extra time to rest and prepare for the Oakland Raiders, and I expect a big effort from them here as they try and keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Panthers have been dominant since their 1-5 start and bye week.  They have gone 3-1 in their four games since and should be 4-0, but they blew a 17-0 lead to the Chiefs despite not giving up a defensive touchdown.  They have led by double-digits in all four games since their bye, though they have had some trouble closing out games, but that just adds to their value because they haven't been winning in blowouts.

Oakland could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now due to its 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS start to the season.  But the Raiders are a very fraudulent team as they have gone 6-1 in games decided by a TD or less, so they have simply been fortunate in close games.  They rank 3rd in turnover differential at +10, which is unsustainable.  The Panthers rank 24th at -5 and have been unlucky in that department.  The Raiders have actually been outgained by their opponents on the season as well.

The Raiders are in an awful spot this week.  They just played in Mexico City on Monday Night Football and were fortunate to beat the Texans 27-20 with more fourth-quarter heroics from Derek Carr and company.  That game was played in high altitude at over 7,000 feet above sea level, which is nearly 2,000 feat above Denver, the NFL's highest city.  That game surely took a lot out of the Raiders, and they had a long flight back and will be working on a short week.  Couple that with the fact the the Panthers have had extra rest, and you can see that the schedule makers did them no favors.

The Panthers are in must-win mode from here on out.  They are two games back of the Atlanta Falcons for the division lead with a realistic chance of catching them since they still get them at home later in the season.  The Raiders can afford a loss because they have a lead over both the Broncos and Chiefs in the division.  And I just can't help but think they are due for a stinker after getting so lucky in close games thus far.

This Oakland defense is one of the worst in the NFL this season.  It gives up 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play, ranking 29th in total defense and 32nd in defensive yards per play.  The Panthers will have a big edge on the ground in this one.  Oakland ranks 28th in the NFL in giving up 4.6 yards per carry to opponents this season.  Carolina ranks 2nd in giving up just 3.5 yards per carry.

The Raiders don't have much off a home-field advantage at all.  In fact, they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Oakland is 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The Raiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games with a total set of 49.5 or higher.  Oakland is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning percentage between 40% & 49% on the season.

Carolina is 61-32 ATS in its last 93 vs. poor defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game.  Ron Rivera is 7-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of the last six games as the coach of Carolina.  He has never lost in this spot with the Panthers winning by 14.2 points per game on average.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Baltimore Ravens are sick and tired of losing to the Cincinnati Bengals.  They have lost five straight meetings in this series and haven't won since November 10, 2013, a span of 1,112 days.  With first place in the division on the line for the Ravens, and a chance to pretty much eliminate the Bengals from the race, they will be playing with extra motivation here Sunday.

"It's like that kid you just got to fight every day until you win," linebacker Terrell Suggs said. "They've been kind of picking on us. Five straight is five straight. Numbers don't lie. They've kind of had our number. We're going to see what we can do to change that."

"We're all tired of losing to the Bengals all the time," said linebacker C.J. Mosley, who has never beaten the Bengals. "That's the nature of football. You can talk about it all you want, but you got out there and do it Sunday."

Cincinnati is just 3-6-1 this season and 1.5 games behind Baltimore (5-5) and Pittsburgh (5-5).  Now the Bengals are in their worst shape of the season with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They lost All-Pro WR AJ Green in last week's loss to the Bills, and there may not be a more important receiver in the league to their team than Green.  The Bengals just don't have any other weapons at wide receiver.

The Bengals also lost running back Giovani Bernard to a season-ending ACL tear against the Bills.  Bernard is probably the most underrated player on the team.  He has accounted for 337 rushing yards and is second on the team in receptions (39).  Bernard is one of the best third-down backs in the league with not only his ability as a pass-catcher, but also his blitz pickup as he's as good as anyone in that department.

Not to mention the Bengals could be without their most important defensive player in Vontaze Burfict, who is questionable with a neck injury.  I just think that this team is starting to realize their season is over because there is no recovering from all these key injuries.  Even if they do show up Sunday they don't have the manpower to be competitive.

The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 2nd in total defense at 295.1 yards per game and 1st against the run at 76.0 yards per game.  They only allow 14.4 points per game at home this season.  And their defense should get an even bigger boost this week with the return of pass-rusher Elvis Dumervil, who hasn't played in 49 days.

Green has been a thorn in the Ravens' side, so they're glad they won't be seeing him.  He has caught 41 passes for 726 yards and six touchdowns in eight career games against Baltimore.  The Bengals are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season, losing by 6.7 points per game on average.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. AFC North foes.  Take the Ravens Sunday.

20* Redskins/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Washington +7

The Cowboys have always been a public team. That has been even more so the case this season as they have actually delivered for backers on a regular basis. Not only are they 9-1 straight up, but they are also 9-0-1 against the spread. They are the only team left in the NFL that has not lost ATS all season.

They have barely escaped with covers in three of their last four games. They covered in OT with a touchdown against the Eagles as 5-point home favorites. The Steelers missed four two-point conversions, otherwise that game would have played out much differently as the Cowboys won 35-30 and covered the 3-point spread. And then they added a field goal in the closing seconds against the Ravens last week to win 27-17 as 7-point favorites.

I think it is time to fade the Cowboys this week. They cannot possibly be more overvalued than they are right now due to their incredible ATS record, and now they’re being asked to lay a full touchdown against a division rival in the Washington Redskins. And I would argue that the Redskins are the next-best team in the NFC East, and not very far behind the Cowboys.

The Redskins just keep getting better and better. After an 0-2 start, they have gone 6-1-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. But unlike the Cowboys, this team continues to lack respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers. They are winning the box score every week, so it has been no fluke.

The Redskins have outgained each of their last six opponents by an average of 101.0 yards per game. They won 16-10 in Baltimore and outgained them by four yards, they won 27-20 over Philadelphia and outgained them by 254 yards, they lost 17-20 at Detroit despite outgaining them by 69 yards, they tied the Bengals 27-27 in London despite outgaining them by 131 yards, they beat the Vikings 26-20 and outgained them by 57 yards, and last week they won 42-24 over the Packers while outgaining them by 91 yards.

This Washington offense can score on anyone. The Redskins have put up 451.8 yards per game in their last five games overall. They are second in the NFL with 6.4 offensive yards per play on the season, which is only behind the Atlanta Falcons. Kirk Cousins is playing as well as anyone at the quarterback position, but the key is that they have found a running game.

The Redskins have rushed for an average of 148.6 yards per game in their last five contests. Robert Kelley has emerged as the lead back and rushed for 137 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers last week. He is a fierce runner who doesn’t go down easily. He has rushed for 424 yards and four scores while averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season.

The final point I want to make here is that home-field advantage means nothing in this series. The road team is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings. The Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Dallas. They will be playing with revenge from their 27-23 loss to the Cowboys earlier this season, and I expect this game to be decided by less than a touchdown once again.  Bet the Redskins Thursday.

15* Vikings/Lions Thanksgiving Day No-Brainer on UNDER 43

I don’t see a whole lot of value in the side of this game as I feel it is priced about right. But I am seeing some value with the total here of 43 points and playing it UNDER the number. I look for this to be a very low scoring game on Thanksgiving Day.

This is a battle between two of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Vikings rank 32nd in the league in total offense at 293.8 yards per game, while the Lions rank 25th at 331.7 yards per game.

The Vikings do have one of the elite defenses in the NFL as they rank 2nd in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game and 3rd in total defense at 306.9 yards per game. The Lions are a respectable 16th in scoring defense at 22.5 points per game and 19th in total defense at 358.2 yards per game.

I think the fact that Arizona and Minnesota combined for 54 points last week has the books setting this number higher than it should be. But that 30-24 final was very misleading. The Vikings were held to just 217 yards of offense, but they got a 100-yard interception return TD and a 104-yard kickoff return TD. The Cardinals only had 290 yards of offense in the game.

These teams are very familiar with each other as they are obviously division opponents, but they also just squared off on November 6th in their first meeting of the season. That game was tied 16-16 at the end of regulation before the Lions won 22-16 in overtime for 38 combined points. The Lions had done nothing on offense until their final two possessions where they drove down for the game-tying field goal in a matter of seconds, and then the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

And this division rivalry has certainly seen its fair share of low-scoring games recently. Indeed, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings while exceeding 42 combined points only once. They have averaged just 34 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is 9 points less than this total of 43.

The UNDER is 14-3 in Vikings last 17 vs. NFC North opponents. The UNDER is 7-0 in Vikings last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 19-8-1 in Vikings lat 28 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lions last four games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Texans/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oakland -5.5

The Oakland Raiders are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now.  They  have absolutely dominated the box score and the scoreboard in their last two games as they keep improving, and now they've had a bye week to make even further improvements and prepare for Houston in this Mexico City showdown.

The Raiders beat the Bucs 30-24 on the road in overtime in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained the Bucs by 356 yards in that contest.  Then they outgained the Broncos by 98 yards in a 30-20 home victory last time out.

Oakland boasts one of the league's top offenses as it is averaging 27.2 points and 401 yards per game this season.  It has put up at least 30 points in three consecutive games coming in.  It has a huge advantage on that side of the ball over the Texans, who rank 30th in total offense at 308.8 yards per game and 29th in scoring offense at 17.9 points per game.

And the Raiders have really improved defensively over the past couple games.  They held the Bucs to just 270 total yards before giving up just 299 to the Raiders last time out.  This defense has the talent, so it was only a matter of time before they got it turned around.

The Raiders are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in road games this season.  The Texans are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games, getting outscored by 15.0 points per game.  Their offense is averaging just 11.5 points and 260.5 yards per game away from home.  Their only road win came against the Jaguars 24-21 in a game they should have lost last week as they were outgained by 54 yards.

Oakland is 9-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Monday games.  While the Raiders are extremely healthy right now, the Texans have a laundry list of injuries coming into this one.  Bet the Raiders  Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the luckiest team in the NFL this season.  They have gone 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and they lead the NFL in turnover differential with an insane plus-14 margin.  If not for the good breaks in the turnover department, this would be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

That was clearly on display last week as the Chiefs came back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Panthers 20-17 by outscoring them 17-0 in the final quarter.  The Panthers simply gave that game away as Cam Newton threw a pick-six, and Kelvin Benjamin fumbled in his own territory to set up the Chiefs' game-winning field goal.

The Chiefs rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 33.3 yards per game.  Only the Colts, Browns and 49ers rank worse.  They have been outgained in six of their last eight games overall.  They were even outgained by 218 yards by the Jaguars at home two weeks ago, yet somehow found a way to win 19-14 in another game they should have lost.

Coming off their fifth straight victory, the Chiefs are way overvalued now here as 7.5-point favorites.  That was a huge win at Carolina, and with a road game at Denver on deck next week, that makes this a sandwich game and a tough spot for the Chiefs.  I don't expect them to be laying it all on the line this week, and I certainly don't expect them to win by more than a touchdown, let alone win the game at all.

The Tampa Bay Bucs have new life now following their most dominant win of the season, a 36-10 home victory over the Chicago Bears in which their defense forced four turnovers and held the Bears to just 283 total yards.  Now the Bucs only trail the Falcons by two games in the division after Atlanta lost last week.

Doug Martin returned to the lineup last week, and he's one of the more underrated running backs in the league.  When he has been healthy, the Bucs have been tough to stop.  They put up 360 yards on the Bears last week, and James Winston had one of his best games.  he completed 23 of 33 passes for 312 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

The Chiefs have been abysmal on offense this season.  Alex Smith averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt against the Panthers last week and had only one completion of more than 20 yards.  He did not throw a touchdown pass, but did throw an interception.  Their lack of explosive plays makes them way too predictable because Smith hasn't been able to stretch the field, and that's not going to magically change this week.

Tampa Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games.  The Bucs are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 11.  Tampa Bay is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Chiefs are 12-27-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite.  Roll with the Buccaneers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in must-win mode following four straight losses.  They likely would have beaten the Cowboys last week had they not gone for four two-point conversions and misses all four, instead kicking the extra points as that game would have played out much differently.

The Steelers aren't broken because they have actually outgained each of their last three opponents despite the losses.  Ben Roethlisberger finally looked healthy last week as he threw for 408 yards and three touchdowns without an interceptions against the Cowboys, clearly holding up his end of the bargain.  And I expect Roethlisberger and the Steelers to hang a big number against the Cleveland defense.

The Browns rank 31st in both scoring defense and total defense, giving up 30 points per game and 419 total yards per game.  And Cleveland doesn't have the firepower to keep up offensively.  The Browns rank just 28th in the NFL in total offense and have been held back by their quarterback play.

Hue Jackson decided to go with Cody Kessler over Josh McCown the last two weeks to see if he has a future with the team.  The answer is clearly a resounding 'NO', and it shows that the Browns don't care about winning as McCown would give them a much greater chance to do that.

They were held to 10 points and 222 total yards against the Cowboys in a 25-point loss two weeks ago, and just 7 points and 144 total yards against the Ravens last week.  Cleveland is just 2-8 against the spread this season, and 0-7 against the spread as a home underdog over the last two seasons, losing by an average of 15.0 points per game.  The books haven't been able to set their numbers high enough.

The Steelers crushed the Browns in both meetings last season, winning by 21 at home and 16 on the road.  They can't afford to overlook the Browns this week after four straight losses.  I think another double-digit victory can be expected here given the situation.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens +7.5

The Dallas Cowboys are 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season.  They haven't lost once against the spread this season.  The betting public is all over the Cowboys now and it's clear that they are way overvalued moving forward.  It's time to sell high on the Cowboys this week.

I like getting a full touchdown with the Ravens here.  Baltimore games have been extremely close over the past few seasons.  A ridiculous 23 of their last 26 games have been decided by eight points or less, so essentially just one score.  I also like the fact that they are getting extra time to prepare for this game after dominating the Browns by 21 last Thursday.  John Harbaugh is 15-3 straight up when given at least 10 days to prepare for a team.

The Ravens have a chance to pull off the upset in this game because of their defense.  They rank 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 282 yards per game.  They also rank 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up just 71 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  They should be able to slow down Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys' rushing attack.

I also question the Cowboys motivation this week.  They are coming off a huge road win against the Steelers in which they were lucky to win because the Steelers beat themselves by going for four two-point conversions and missing on all four.  Had they simply kicked the extra point on all four, that game would have played out much differently.

So, the Cowboys are in a letdown spot off that huge win, plus they have a big divisional game against the Redskins on deck Thursday on Thanksgiving.  I think they could be overlooking the Ravens just enough this week to not only fail to cover this 7.5-point spread, but likely lose this game outright.

Jason Garrett is 10-24 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Dallas is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 home games overall.  The Ravens are 14-4-3 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Ravens Sunday.