20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Panthers/Dolphins OVER 48

The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL.  They are scoring 36.2 points per game, averaging 514 yards per game and 8.5 yards per play.  Any total below 50 involving the Dolphins I'm going to be intrigued by the OVER.  They are going to get 35-plus here against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers are allowing 28.8 points per game this season and just gave up 42 points to the Lions last week.  They have been decimated by injuries on defense with CB Jaycee Horn and LB Shaq Thompson out, plus LB Brian Burns, S Xavier Woods and DT Derrick Brown all being held out of practice on Thursday and doubtful at best.

Bryce Young had one of his best games against the Lions last week leading the Panthers to 24 points and 342 total yards.  I think he will progressively get better, and it was going to take some time for him to get used to Frank Reich's system.  Young will be in line for one of his best games of the season against a poor Miami defense that allows 27.0 points per game this season.

Carolina is 23-6 OVER in its last 29 road games after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored.  The weather looks good with temps in the 80's, a 33% chance of rain and only 12 MPH winds that will be either at the offenses's back or into their faces.  The Dolphins will do their part and continue scoring in the 2nd half of this one to lead the way.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +5

I've backed the Jacksonville Jaguars as a premium pick each of the last two weeks in London with success.  They won and covered as 3-point favorites in a 16-point win over Jacksonville.  They won and covered as 5.5-point underdogs in a 25-20 win over Buffalo.  Jacksonville had the advantage of being familiar with the surroundings in London and becoming the first team to stay over there for two consecutive games.  Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Jaguars.

Jacksonville returns home and will be dealing with all the distractions that come with returning home from a long road trip.  Home field hasn't been too kind to the Jaguars this season.  They lost 17-9 to the Chiefs as 3-point dogs.  They were blasted 37-17 by the Texans as 7.5-point favorites.

Now they must play an improving Indianapolis Colts team that will be highly motivated for revenge from a 31-21 loss to the Jaguars in the opener.  That was a 10-point loss, but they did lead the Jaguars going into the 4th quarter.  They also failed to score from the 1-yard line in the final seconds, turning a 3-point loss to a 10-point loss.

That was the first game for head coach Shane Steichen.  The Colts have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS since with their lone loss coming in overtime to the Rams.  That was the only game in which Anthony Richardson started and finished.  I think Gardner Minshew is an upgrade over Richardson.  

He came in for an injured Richardson to lead a 31-20 win at Houston.  Last week, Minshew came in for an injured Richardson and led the Colts to a 23-16 home win over Tennessee.  And in the only game Minshew had a full week to prepare, if you'll remember I was on the Colts +8 over the Ravens.  They won that game outright 22-19 in overtime.

Minshew is the real deal, and Steichen has no problem adjusting the offense to fit his skill set.  He is completing 68.7% of his passes compared to just 59.5% for Richardson.  Minshew has yet to turn the ball over, either, which is huge.  This will also be a homecoming of sorts for Minshew as he made his name with the Jaguars, and will be extra motivated to beat his former team.

The Jaguars put up gaudy offensive numbers against the Bills last week, but keep in mind the Bills were already injury-ravaged on defense coming into the game, and then lost several players early in that one including Milano and Jones.  This Colts defense will offer up much more resistance.  They have allowed 23 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last four games.  WR Zay Jones, LT Cam Robinson and LG Walker Little are all banged up right now and questionable to play Sunday.  Jones and Walker did not practice Thursday and are doubtful.

The Colts have quietly rushed for at least 126 yards in four consecutive games.  They just rushed for 193 yards last week on a Tennessee Titans team that had previously been great against the run.  Zack Moss has been a revelation, and Jonathan Taylor just returned from injured reserve last week.  This is quietly one of the best two-headed monsters are running back in the NFL moving forward, which will take a ton of pressure off Minshew.  The didn't have either Moss or Taylor in the season-opening loss to the Jaguars.

I just love taking these teams out for revenge in the 2nd meeting after losing the first, especially when they are on the road as underdogs in the rematch.  I also love fading teams coming back from London.  Most teams take a bye week coming back from London, but not the Jaguars.  The last 11 teams not to take a bye week after London were either tied or trailing in the 4th quarter, including the Falcons last week in their 2-point win over the Texans.  There is a hangover effect and jet lag these teams have to deal with.  I fully expect Indianapolis to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

15* Ravens/Titans NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -4

John Harbaugh decided to have his team fly out on Sunday night to London.  He's had this game circled because the last time they went to London they got blown out.  They are taking this game very seriously, especially coming off a blown 10-0 lead to the Steelers and losing 17-10.

The Ravens dominated that game against the Steelers but had 7-8 drops and committed three turnovers.  If the Ravens had won that game in a blowout like they should have, this line would be higher than Baltimore -4.  I think the Ravens are primed for a big effort here.

The Ravens will have their entire offensive line intact since Week 1.  They have also several key players back on defense from injury now.  They are the healthiest they have been at any point this season, so that's another reason we should get the best version of the Ravens.

The Tennessee Titans are 0-3 on the road this season losing at New Orleans, losing 27-3 at Cleveland and falling 23-16 at Baltimore.  What had previously been a stout Tennessee run defense was shredded for 193 rushing yards by the Colts last week.  The biggest reason was not having DT Teair Tart in the middle last week as he was out with a toe injury.  He hasn't practiced this week and is doubtful.  

Tart is one of the most underrated defensive players in the entire league.  The Titans also won't have WR Treylon Burks or LB Luke Gifford for this one, plus DT Jeffery Simmons, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, S Amani Hooker and DL Denico Autry have all been limited in practice and are questionable.  The Titans are in the worst position they've been in health-wise heading into this game.

The Bills didn't arrive in London until Friday last week and were flat as a pancake against the Jaguars.  Well, the Titans took the same approach and didn't arrive in London until Friday this week.  That screams jet lag, and it's not enough time to acclimate to the time change.  Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business, but he's making a mistake not getting his team acclimated in time for this game at 9:30 AM EST.

The Ravens have elite numbers this season outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play and only allowing 4.1 yards per play on defense.  The Titans are getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense.  The Ravens are in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the season here.  Remember, they scored 28 points against the Browns two weeks ago, who have  one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Tennessee is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following an upset loss to a division opponent.  Baltimore is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 road games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Harbaugh is 16-6 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Baltimore.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* Broncos/Chiefs AFC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 47

The weather forecast has driven this total down from as high as 52 to below the key number of 48 and down to another key number of 47 tonight.  There are expected to be 15-25 MPH winds, so the move down was expected, but it has gone too far.  I think there's value on the OVER 47 here.

Even if the Chiefs decide to keep the ball on the ground more, they are going to continue to score.  They face the worst defense in the entire NFL in the Broncos, who allow 36.2 points per game, 451 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  The Broncos allow 188 rushing yards per game and 5.9 per carry this season.

The Broncos are much-improved on offense this season.  They average 6.1 yards per play on offense, which is a Top 5 mark in the league.  They also average 4.9 yards per carry on the ground, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.  They are going to be able to run the football on this Kansas City defense, and Russell Wilson has ample healthy weapons outside this season.

The Broncos and their opponents have combined for 68, 90, 59 and 52 points in their last four games overall.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with 51, 62 and 52 combined points.  And two of those were with Denver's terrible offense and elite defense last year.  It is opposite for the Broncos this season with a solid offense and the worst defense in the NFL.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Packers/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Green Bay ML +105

I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers Monday.  They played last Thursday so they've had nearly two weeks to prepare for the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Packers have been one of the most injury-riddled teams in the NFL in the early going, so this extra rest is huge for them.  Guys like Aaron Jones and Christian Watson returned from injury last game but were on a snap count.  Both should be back to full strength and play the entire game, which will help out Jordan Love drastically.

The Packers have the better offense in this one with Love and his playmakers over likely Jimmy G and his playmakers.  It's no coincidence Jimmy G has struggled and gotten hurt again here now that he doesn't have Kyle Shanahan calling the shots for him.  It's a big downgrade in head coach Josh McDaniels, who continues making the wrong decisions for this team.  Davante Adams is banged up with a shoulder injury and did not practice Thursday.

The biggest weakness for the Packers this season has been their run defense.  However, that shouldn't be much of an issue here as the Raiders haven't been able to get anything going on the ground.  They average 65 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry against teams that allow 137 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry, so they have faced a weak schedule of opposing run defenses.  The Raiders are averaging just 15.5 points per game, which is really poor considering they have an offensive-minded head coach in McDaniels.  The Raiders also give up 25.3 points per game.

Matt LaFleur is 9-1 ATS after being outrushed by 75 yards or more as the coach of Green Bay.  LaFleur is 16-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Packers.  Green Bay is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games.  The Packers are better on both sides of the ball and at head coach.  The only thing the Raiders have going for them is home field, but Packers fans will travel and it will probably be closer to a 50/50 split.  Green Bay has a bye on deck next week so will be 'all in' here to get a win and improve to 3-2 going into the bye.  Bet the Packers on the Money Line.

20* Cowboys/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -3.5

The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL this season.  They have now won 14 consecutive regular season games, are 13-1 since trading for Christian McCaffrey, and haven't lost a game in which Brock Purdy has started and finished.  The 49ers have won 10 consecutive home games with all 10 wins coming by 6 points or more, including seven by double-digits.  They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games.

The 49ers have dominant stats, most notably on a yards per play basis, which is my favorite stat in the NFL.  They have scored at least 30 points in all four games this season while averaging 398 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They allow just 14.5 points per game, 284 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.

Dallas has been living off turnovers and defensive touchdowns to mask their problems on offense.  They have already forced 10 turnovers in four games and are +9 in turnover differential, many of those which were returned for touchdowns.  Non-offensive touchdowns are tough to count on.  Their offense has struggled in the red zone this year, and that will be the difference in this game.

The Cowboys won't be able to turn the 49ers over as they have committed only one turnover all season.  Brock Purdy is great at taking care of the football.  The Cowboys only average 5.2 yards per play on offense and allow 5.1 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play.  Those are numbers of an average team, so the Cowboys aren't in the same breathe as the 49ers in that department.  But many see these as close to even teams, which just isn't the case.

The 49ers have knocked the Cowboys out of the playoffs each of the past two seasons, and I think the 49ers are better this season than they were in those two previous playoff wins.  They won 23-17 on the road in 2022 and 19-12 at home last season.  Dak Prescott could not do anything against their defense, and he will struggle once again.

Another key is that the 49ers are going to be able to run the football on Dallas, which was the key to Arizona pulling off the 28-16 upset over the Cowboys two weeks ago.  They rushed for 222 yards on 30 carries on the Cowboys.  Dallas was able to pin its ears back in the other three games against Daniel Jones and the Giants, Zach Wilson and the Jets and Mac Jones and the Patriots due to building large leads with their defense.  They won't be able to pin their ears back against the 49ers, who rush for 141 yards per game and have an MVP candidate in Christian McCaffrey who has been unstoppable to this point.

San Francisco is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  The matchup of head coaches with Kyle Shanahan over Mike McCarthy is worth a couple points here as well with Shanahan far and away better than McCarthy.  Bet the 49ers Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR Bengals/Cardinals OVER 44.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They scored 28 points on the Giants, 28 on the Cowboys and then 16 on the 49ers and it should have been 24 because they missed a 2-point conversion and had two drops in the end zone to end the game.  They had no problem moving the football on both the 49ers and Cowboys, who have arguably the two best defenses in the NFL.

Arizona has a hideous defense that allows 25.5 points per game, 374.5 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  We are 'buying low' on this Cincinnati Bengals offense, which has been the most disappointing offense in the league when compared to preseason expectations.  I think a trip to Arizona inside a dome could be just what the doctor ordered for Joe Burrow and company to get on track.

The Bengals have played four straight outdoor games to open the season against the Browns, Ravens, Rams and Titans.  Three of those four teams have elite defenses while the Rams are decent, and the Bengals had some success against the Rams.  Arizona has by far the worst defense the Bengals will have faced all season.

This Cincinnati defense has been almost equally disappointing taking a big step back this season.  The Bengals allow 23.5 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  Josh Dobbs and James Conner are in line for a big game on the ground.  The Bengals allow 157 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  That will open things up for Dobbs down the field.  Arizona averages 144 rushing yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per play overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Dolphins OVER 49.5

I locked in this total on Monday prior to the Giants facing the Seahawks on Monday Night Football.  I did it in anticipation that this total would get bet to 50 or above.  But it has creeped back down largely due to the Giants being held to 3 points by the Seahawks.  I would probably make it a 25* play at 47 or 47.5, which is currently where it's at as of this writing.  So adjust your bets accordingly as this is one of the rare times I've gotten a worse line.  I still think this total should be 51 or higher.

The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have the most explosive offense in the NFL scoring 37.5 points per game, averaging 511 yards per game and 8.2 yards per play.  Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous over a four-game sample size.  They remain healthy on offense and can name their number on this Giants defense, which is allowing 30.5 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.

The Giants have been woeful on offense this season, but they have also played a very tough schedule of opposing defenses.  They have faced arguably the two best defenses in the NFL in the Cowboys and 49ers.  They also faced a Seahawks team that got several key players back from injury on defense prior to their game and lived up to their potential.

In their lone game against a bad defense, the Giants put up 31 points and 439 total yards on the Cardinals.  The Dolphins may have a worse defense than the Cardinals.  They allow 29.8 points per game, 374.5 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  The Bills hung 48 points on them last week, and Daniel Jones is in line for another big game like he had against the Cardinals.

The Giants had to go up-tempo in the 2nd half to come back from a 28-7 deficit to beat the Cardinals.  They are going to have to go up-tempo against the Dolphins as well because I expect them to be trailing the entire time trying to keep pace.  There's a chance the Giants get Saquon Barkley back this week as he returned to practice on a limited basis.  But I like the OVER regardless of whether or not he plays.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, only an 18% chance of precipitation and 7 MPH winds in Miami.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Jaguars/Bills NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48

The Buffalo Bills beat themselves in the opener with four turnovers in a 22-16 loss to the Jets.  It was one of Josh Allen's worst games against a Jets defense that just has him figured out.  Allen and this Buffalo offense have responded in a big way since.

The Bills put up 38 points and 450 total yards on the Raiders in Week 2, 37 points and 386 total yards on the Commanders in Week 3 and 48 points and 414 total yards on the Dolphins in Week 4.  They have averaged 41 points per game in their last three games.

I think they can get to 30 points against Jacksonville to help pave the way to us cashing this OVER 48 ticket.  The Jaguars are allowing 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Bills have actually been one of the worst defenses in the NFL from a yards per play perspective, allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  I also think this Jacksonville offense will get on track this week.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Jaguars.  LT Cam Robinson is expected to return from his four-game suspension.  WR Zay Jones has missed the past two games with a knee injury but returned to practice this week to give Trevor Lawrence another weapon.  WR and return specialist Jamal Agnew sat out Week 4 with a quod injury and could return as well.

The Jaguars jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead on the Falcons last week and played vanilla offense in the second half to preserve the lead.  They won't be able to be vanilla against this Buffalo offense as they will have to try and match them score for score.  

They get a banged-up Buffalo defense that just lost star CB Tre'Davious White to a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  They also have CB Christian Benford, S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde, DE Greg Rousseua, DE Leonard Floyd and LB Matt Milano all banged up on defense.  LB Von Miller could make his season debut this week but it's unlikely.

The weather looks great for Sunday in London with temps in the 70's, light winds and only a 10% chance of precipitation.  I think we get a shootout here with these two talented offenses.  

Buffalo is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games following three consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  Jacksonville is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  Doug Pederson is 8-0 OVER In road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach.  Sean McDermott is 6-0 OVER following a win by 21 points or more over a division opponent as the coach of Buffalo.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Buffalo Bills.  They are coming off three consecutive blowout wins.  Last week's 48-20 win over Miami was the one they really wanted, and I think they will be flat after making a statement and letting the Dolphins know they are still the kings of the division.

Buffalo's three straight blowout wins were largely due to being +9 in turnovers and forcing 10.  That's not sustainable.  The Bills have actually been one of the worst defenses in the NFL from a yards per play perspective, allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  I think this Jacksonville offense will get on track this week.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Jaguars.  LT Cam Robinson is expected to return from his four-game suspension.  WR Zay Jones has missed the past two games with a knee injury but returned to practice this week to give Trevor Lawrence another weapon.  WR and return specialist Jamal Agnew sat out Week 4 with a quod injury and could return as well.

The Jaguars jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead on the Falcons last week and played vanilla offense in the second half to preserve the lead.  They won 23-7 and were never really in jeopardy.  Doug Pederson knows he's going to have to keep the foot on the gas to hang with the Bills, and I think the Jaguars are fully capable.

 The spot really favors Jacksonville.  They are the first team that gets to stay in London for consecutive weeks.  They are used to the scenery and there will be no jet lag.  Jet lag will be a real issue for the Bills, who will be playing a 9:30 AM EST body clock game.  I think they'll still be hung over from that huge Miami win.

Buffalo has a banged-up defense that just lost star CB Tre'Davious White to a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  They also have CB Christian Benford, S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde, DE Greg Rousseua, DE Leonard Floyd and LB Matt Milano all on the injury report on defense.  LB Von Miller could make his season debut this week but it's unlikely.  TE Dawson Knox is questionable as well.

The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road/neutral games.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

20* Bears/Commanders NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off Thursday night when the Chicago Bears visit the Washington Commanders.  The weather looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's and only 5 MPH winds.  These two defenses will make these two offenses look like two of the best in the NFL tonight.

The Bears have lost 14 consecutive games while allowing at least 25 points in all 14 games for the first time in NFL history.  The Bears came into the season with the least-talented defense in the NFL, and injuries have made them even worse.  They are allowing 34.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.

Washington has allowed at least 33 points in three consecutive games.  The Commanders are allowing 30.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  Both defenses are tired as well as the Bears blew a 28-7 lead to the Broncos last week with their defense on the field the entire second half, and the Commanders going to OT with the Eagles.  The effect is maximized with this being a short week on Thursday Night Football.

Justin Fields is coming off his best game of the season and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after blowing that lead to the Broncos last week.  He led the Bears to 471 total yards.  Fields went 28-of-35 passing for 335 yards with four touchdowns and two turnovers.  His elusiveness will be huge against this Washington defensive line, which is the strength of their defense.  Washington's secondary is not good.

The Commanders have scored 31 and 35 points in two of their last three games coming in.  Sam Howell went 29-of-41 for 290 yards with one touchdown and no picks against a very good Philadelphia defense last week.  He is also elusive, rushing for 40 yards on six carries against the Eagles as well.  He has been one of the better young quarterbacks in the league this season.

The OVER is 12-3 in Bears last 15 games overall dating back to last season, including 4-0 this season.  The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in 13 of those 15 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Seahawks/Giants NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 48

Night game UNDERS are 148-97-3 (60.4%) since 2019.  Night game UNDERS are 9-2 to start this season heading into Week 4.  This total is too high for a game involving the New York Giants, who have a solid defense but a terrible offense, especially without their best offensive player in Saquon Barkley.

The Giants were shut out in the opener by the Cowboys and managed just 171 total yards.  You can throw out the Arizona game because Arizona's defense is terrible, and they had Barkley for the entire game.  And last week they managed just 12 points and 150 total yards against the 49ers.  Again, this total is too high for a game involving this Giants offense.

No question the Seahawks have put up great offensive numbers the last two weeks against Detroit and Carolina, which is inflating this total.  But both of those teams were missing key players defensively.  They managed just 13 points and 180 total yards against the Rams in Week 1.  This is a much better, hungrier Giants defense they will be up against Monday night.

The Seahawks are better defensively than they have shown thus far.  Being without both SS Jamal Adams and CB Riq Woolen is a big reason why they have struggled.  Both are expected back this week, which is a huge help to the defense.  Adams is the leader of this defense and hasn't played yet this year.  Having him back will be a game changer for them.  Also, taking a step down in class here against this Giants offense will help as well.

These teams met last year with the Seahawks winning 27-13 for just 40 combined points.  Pete Carroll is 15-5 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle.  The Giants are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games as home underdogs.  New York is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games following an ATS loss.  Seattle is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 4.75 or fewer yards per play.  The UNDER is 16-4-2 in Giants last 22 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals/49ers OVER 44

Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers are rolling on offense once again this season.  They have scored at least 30 points in each of their first three games this season and I expect them to make it four straight against the lowly Arizona Cardinals to pave the way for us to cash this OVER 44 ticket.  They are also averaging 399 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season and have been able to take their foot off the gas in the second half as well, or the numbers could be even better.

I don't expect them to take the Cardinals lightly or take their foot off the gas this week.  The 49ers have extra rest after playing last Thursday, and they just saw the Cardinals upset the Cowboys last week in a fluky result in which the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone.  It was still good enough for me to cash my OVER 43 ticket in that game as the Cardinals won 28-16, but there should have been more points from the Cowboys.

The Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a terrible defense that allowed 31 points to the Giants the week prior.  The Giants were shut out by the Cowboys and managed just 12 points against the 49ers in their other two games just to show how bad this Arizona defense is.  Dallas had 416 total yards on the Cardinals last week but only 16 points because of those red zone woes.

While the 49ers will be able to name their number on this soft, banged-up Arizona defense, I do expect the Cardinals to be able to score some points on this San Francisco defense.  This is an underrated Arizona offense that put up 28 points on the Giants and another 28 on the Cowboys the last two weeks.  They also had 379 yards on the Giants and 400 yards on the Cowboys.  

Josh Dobbs is elusive and has good weapons, and this offensive line is playing well behind him, especially in the running game paving the way for 151 yards on the ground against the Giants and 222 yards on the ground against the Cowboys.  The 49ers haven't had to face a very mobile QB yet as they faced Kenny Pickett, Matt Stafford and Daniel Jones, and they haven't faced a good rushing attack either, which has allowed them to pin their ears back and get after the QB.  They will have to respect Arizona's running game, which should open things up for Dobbs in the passing game.

The last three meetings in this series were all shootouts that topped this 44-point total.  The 49ers won 38-13 for 51 combined points, 38-10 for 43 combined points and were upset 31-17 for 48 combined points in their first game against Arizona last year.  But Brock Purdy didn't play in those first two games, and he threw 3 TD in the most recent meeting.  Arizona started played David Blough/McSorley in the most recent meeting, Colt McCoy/McSorley in the second and McCoy in the first.  So the 49ers haven't had to face a QB as good as Dobbs in any of their last three meetings with the Cardinals.  I expect Arizona to get 14-plus in this one.

These teams have combined for at least 44 points in six of the last eight meetings and it should be more of the same here in their first meeting of 2023. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bills OVER 53.5

The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They beat the Chargers 36-34 in the opener for 70 combined points.  In Week 2 they beat the Patriots 24-17 in sloppy conditions in a slow-paced game.  And last week they hung a 70-spot on the Broncos in a 70-20 victory for 90 combined points.  They didn't even have Jaylen Waddle last week, and he is expected to return this week to give the Dolphins the best 1-2 punch in the league at receiver with him and Tyreke Hill.

This is actually a pretty low total for a game involving the Dolphins.  They have the best offense in the NFL and a bad defense.  The Bills appear to have a good defense, but keep in mind they have played an easy schedule of opposing offenses and quarterbacks.  They faced Zach Wilson and the Jets in Week 1, Jimmy G and the Raiders in Week 2 and Sam Howell and the Commanders in Week 3.

This is a big step up in class for this Buffalo defense, which is missing Von Miller and will get exposed this week.  S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde and DE Leonard Floyd all missed practice Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week as well.  The Bills aren't going to stop the Dolphins, but they can match them score for score with their potent offense.

After being held in check in Week 1 by the Jets, who always have a good game plan for them, the Bills' true offensive colors have shown the past two weeks.  They hung 38 points on the Raiders with 183 rushing and 267 passing yards, and last week they hung 37 points on the Commanders with 168 rushing and 218 passing.  They finally appear to have a very good rushing attack this season to compliment Josh Allen and the passing game.

The last two meetings in Buffalo were absolute shootouts.  Buffalo won 32-29 in the regular season finale for 61 combined points and put up 446 total yards on the Dolphins, who came through with 405 themselves in a game started and finished by Tua.  But Tua was hurt in the matchup in the playoffs, and it was still a shootout in a 34-31 victory by the Bills, who had 423 total yards on the Dolphins.  They clearly have this Miami defense figured out as they went for 497 total yards on the Dolphins on the road last season as well.

Conditions look perfect in Buffalo for a shootout Sunday afternoon with temps in the 70's and only 6 MPH winds at Highmark Stadium.  Miami is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game.  Sean McDermott is 12-3 OVER in home games after allowing 150 or fewer passing yards last game as the coach of Buffalo.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Falcons/Jaguars NFL London No-Brainer on Jacksonville -3

This feels like a great spot to back the Jacksonville Jaguars this week.  They are coming off two consecutive losses, so they will be focused and ready to go in London.  I also like the fact that they play in London every year, so this is essentially a home game for them.  Fans have adopted this team like their own so it will feel like a home game as well.

The Jaguars were beaten by the Chiefs 17-9 at home two weeks ago.  They just failed in the red zone time after time and couldn't get anything going.  But last week's 20-point home loss to Houston provides us with an opportunity to 'buy low' on the Jaguars this week.  Now everyone is writing them off, which is exactly the time I like to back teams in the NFL.

Especially teams like the Jaguars who have a lot of talent and are better than the last score showed.  The 20-point loss to Houston was very misleading.  They actually outgained the Texans by 38 yards and had 404 total yards of offense, but only 17 points to show for it.  They gave up an 85-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to a fullback, which was absolutely insane.

Now the Jaguars get to face the Falcons, who are overvalued due to their 2-1 start this season.  They beat the Panthers in the opener, who look like one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They came back from 12 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Packers at home in Week 2.  The Packers were missing several key players in that game.  Then in their first road game of the season, the Falcons were blasted 20-6 on the road by the Lions.

There was nothing misleading about that loss to the Lions.  They were outgained by 175 yards by the Lions.  Their offense was held to just 183 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.  They are a one-dimensional running team with arguably the worst QB situation in the entire league with Desmond Ridder.  He is averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt this season with two touchdowns and one interception.  He just doesn't threaten opposing defenses with the downfield passes.

That makes this a great matchup for the Jaguars.  While they have been susceptible against the pass defensively this season, they have been great against the run.  The Jaguars are only allowing 84 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry this season.  They will be able to bottle up the run just like Detroit did, and that will be the key to them getting the win and cover here against the Falcons.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday morning.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +2

The Green Bay Packers have had this game circled all offseason.  The Detroit Lions beat them in Week 18 last year to keep them out of the playoffs.  In fact, they swept the season series and have lost three consecutive games to the Lions overall.  It's safe to say they won't be lacking any motivation here Thursday night.

These short weeks really favor the home teams.  Green Bay has zero travel involved after beating the Saints at home Sunday to improve to 2-1 this season, with their lone loss coming on the road at Atlanta after blowing a 12-point lead.  The Packers have the rest and travel advantage as a result with the Lions having to fly in from Detroit on a short week.

The Packers beat the Bears 38-20 in the opener on the road.  They haven't had Aaron Jones or Christian Watson either of the last two games, but both are expected to return.  That gives Jordan Love his two biggest playmakers on the field at the same time for the first time all season.  What he has done thus far without these two has been very impressive.  He has a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.  I think Love is much better than he gets credit for.

This Green Bay defense also looks improved and is much healthier than the offense.  Plus, not only did Jones and Watson return to practice this week, but their top CB in Jaire Alexander returned to practice this week as well.  There's a good chance they get all three of these players back, which are three of the very best players on the entire roster.

Speaking of injuries, the Lions have a laundry list of them.  FB Cabinda and RG Vaitai and RT Nelson are out on offense, while LT Decker, LG Jackson and RB Montgomery are all questionable.  FS Joseph missed last game with a hip injury and is questionable to return this week.  This isn't a very good Detroit defense as it is, and that was evident when they gave up 37 points to Seattle two weeks ago.  I think they are being overvalued here as road favorites off their home win over the Falcons last week.

The Packers have clearly been undervalued this season and are getting no respect here once again as this line has flipped favorites.  In fact, the Packers have flipped from favorites to underdogs for three consecutive games now.  They were -1.5 to +3 against the Falcons and covered in a 1-point loss.  They were -2 to +1.5 against the Saints last week and covered in a 1-point win.  They improved to 3-0 ATS this season.  They went from -1.5 to +2 as of this writing in this game as well.

Green Bay is 28-4 SU in its last 32 home meetings with Detroit.  The Packers have arguably the best home-field advantage in the entire NFL, and that's not being factored enough into this line. This is the first time the Lions have been favored in Green Bay since 1986 when the Packers have had their starting QB healthy.  The Lions are 13-31 ATS in their last 44 games as road favorites.  Green Bay is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

20* Eagles/Bucs NFC No-Brainer on OVER 45

The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the best offenses in the NFL again this season.  They are scoring 29.5 points per game.  They will get what they want against this Tampa Bay defense to lead the way in us cashing the OVER tonight.

The Tampa Bay Bucs are improved on offense this season behind Baker Mayfield, who has more weapons now than he ever has in his career.  Mayfield is a gun slinger who will make plenty of plays, but who is also susceptible to turnovers and easy scores for the Eagles.

Mayfield will be up against a banged-up Philadelphia defense that is allowing 378.0 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season to the Patriots and Vikings.  CB Maddox is out, LB Dean is out and DT Davis and DE Sweat are both questionable to play Monday.  Several other players are playing through injury on defense.

I think the Bucs are allowing 5.7 yards per play defensively this season.  The Vikings should have scored more on them in them in the opener but turned it over three times.  The Bucs also have injury concerns on defense with LB Dennis and DL Kancey out, plus LB White, DL Vea and CB Davis II all questionable.

Both defenses are vulnerable with injuries and both offenses are healthy and thriving in the early going this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cowboys/Cardinals OVER 43

The Dallas Cowboys have scored at total of 70 points in their first two games for an average of 35.0 points per game.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season.  I wouldn't be surprise to see them get to their season average again here against the Arizona Cardinals, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

The Cardinals made Daniel Jones look like Patrick Mahomes in the second half last week in their 31-28 loss to the Giants.  They have injuries up and down their defense, and now they are a tired defense after being on the field so much in the second half last week.

No question the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they have played Jones and the Giants and Zach Wilson and a dead Jets offense without Aaron Rodgers.  They just lost CB Travon Diggs to a torn ACL in practice this week.

Josh Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise for this Arizona offense, which is better than it gets credit for.  They put up 16 points on a very good Washington defense in Week 1, and then 28 points and 379 total yards against the Giants last week.  I expect them to put up enough points on the Cowboys to help us cash this OVER ticket.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Arizona.  The Cowboys and Cardinals have combined for at least 45 points in four consecutive meetings and six of their last seven meetings.  A big reason for that is because these games are always played indoors in perfect conditions.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bears/Chiefs OVER 47

The Kansas City Chiefs played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  That game also had the highest total at 50.5.  Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Chicago Bears down to 47.

This Kansas City offense has been held in check through two weeks.  Injuries and turnovers hurt them in Week 1 against the Lions, and turnovers and red zone failures hurt them in Week 2 against the Jaguars.  I think the Chiefs are looking to make a statement this week on offense, and I expect them to hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Chicago Bears.

The Bears allowed 38 points to the Packers in Week 1 and 27 points and 437 total yards to the Bucs in Week 2.  Their defensive coordinator resigned, they already lack talent at every level defensively, and now they are missing a few of their best defensive players due to injury.  What a mess.  They are without CB Kyler Gordon and likely to be without S Eddie Jackson this week.  The Chiefs are going to score 30-plus points on the Bears to bust out of their funk and help pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Bears should get to 17-plus against the Chiefs.  They scored 20 on the Packers in the opener and 17 on the Bucs last week.  But Justin Fields has been thinking too much and taking negative plays as a result.  He has stated this week that he's going to get back to being himself and play on instincts, which is when he and the Bears are much better.  That means he's going to run a lot more, and the Chiefs struggle against running quarterbacks.  Look for Fields to play his best game of the season this week for the Bears, who are much healthier on offense than defense.  

Conditions in Kansas City look good for a shootout Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, only a 26% chance of precipitation and only 8.5 MPH winds.  This total has been suppressed due to Kansas City going under the total in their first two games this season.  We'll take advantage of the value and back the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3.5

Deshaun Watson single-handedly cost the Browns a win last week.  He was 22-of-40 passing and had a couple costly offensive facemask penalties trying to stiff arm guys.  He also handed the Steelers two defensive touchdowns.  He's clearly not the guy he was in Houston. He is 4-4 as a starter in Cleveland with a 9-to-7 TD/INT ratio.  There's too much on Watson's shoulders moving forward.

Now the Browns are without their best offensive player in Nick Chubb after a gruesome knee injury.  I just don't think this team laying more than a field goal to the Titans.  They do have a great defense, but keep in mind they played a broken Bengals offense and a broken Steelers offense.  They also have a much worse injury situation than the Titans right now.

Mike Vraebel is the underdog king.  He actually has a winning record SU as an underdog in his career at 24-22 SU.  Vrabel is 23-9-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher as a head coach.  The Titans just have a way of making games close and winning them late with great coaching.  Each of their first two games this season were decided by a combined 4 points.

The Titans have a very good defense this season that will keep them in games.  They are stout against the run, and the Browns want to run the football even without Chubb.  The Titans still have a great rushing attack with Derrick Henry, and Ryan Tannehill was much sharper last week completing 20-of-24 passes to bounce back from his 3-interception performance against the Saints.  He led the Titans to a 27-24 (OT) win over the Chargers to bounce back from the 1-point loss to the Saints.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in home games after playing on Monday Night Football since 1992.  So the Browns are on a short week as well, only adding to the tough spot for them.  Tennessee is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) - off a road loss in the first half of the season are 59-23 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This line should be closer to PK.  Bet the Titans Friday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Indianapolis Colts +8

This looks like a great time to 'sell high' on the Baltimore Ravens.  They have won and covered each of their first two games this season.  They were far less dominant than the 25-9 score against Houston in the opener would indicate.  They were actually outgained by the Texans in that game and held to 265 total yards.

Last week the Ravens upset the Bengals 27-24 as 3-point road underdogs.  But the Bengals lost by 21 to Cleveland in the opener and have been a disaster to start the season.  Joe Burrow re-aggravated his calf injury in the loss and may not play this week.  The Bengals are a mess.  So those two wins don't look that great now.

The Colts deserved to cover in their opener against the Jaguars, but lost 31-21 as they failed to get it in from the 1-yard line in the final seconds and blew a 4-point 4th quarter lead.  Then last week the Colts jumped out to a 31-10 lead on the Texans before calling off the dogs.  The 31-20 final wasn't indicative of how lopsided this game was.

QB Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion early in that game, and the Colts didn't miss a beat with Gardner Minshew, who is arguably the best backup QB in the NFL.  Minshew went 19-of-23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in the win.  The Colts will be fine with Minshew is Richardson cannot play Sunday, and it might actually be an upgrade.

The Ravens want to run the ball, and the Colts have been stout against the run this far.  They are only allowing 78 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.  I think their defense can keep them in this game for four quarters, and whoever is under center will make enough plays to keep this a one-score game either way.  I just think this line should be a touchdown or less, so we are getting some line value at +8.

Like clockwork, the Ravens have a ton of injuries here early in the season again.  They are without RB Dobbins and CB Humphrey.  RB Hill, LT Stanley, C Linderbaum, LB Oweh and S Williams are all questionable.  I think these cluster injuries will catch up to them this week finally.

This is a trap spot for the Ravens.  They are coming off their double-revenge win over the Bengals as they had that game circled after losing in Week 17 and in the first round of the playoffs to the Bengals.  They have been thinking about this game all offseason.  Now they have two division road games against the Browns and Steelers on deck.  This is a sandwich and lookahead spot for the Ravens, another reason they may not bring their best effort.

Plays on road teams (Indianapolis) - after playing their last game on the road in September games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Teams aren't tired this early in the season, so these back-to-back road games don't affect them nearly as much as they would later in the season.  This has actually been a very profitable spot to back these back-to-back road teams early.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texans/Jaguars OVER 44

The Jacksonville Jaguars played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.  That game also had the highest total at 50.5.  Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Houston Texans down to 44.

That game against the Chiefs was a bit of an aberration.  Both teams struggled in the red zone and with turnovers.  But the Jaguars will get back to being one of the top offenses in the NFL this week, which is what they looked like in Week 1 when they beat the Colts 31-21 for 51 combined points.  There's simply too much talent on this offense to hold them down for long.

Speaking of the Colts, the Texans just played them last week and lost 31-20 for 51 combined points.  The Colts did whatever they wanted to on offense and jumped out to a huge lead before calling off the dogs.  The Texans showed they could still move the football and score late, which is what I could see happening again here to help us cash this OVER.

CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts last week and took a big step forward from Week 1 against the Ravens to that performance.  He has some underrated targets on the outside in Collins, Dell and Woods, and he has a great running back in Damien Pierce.  This Texans offense I think is underrated right now.

The problem for Houston is all their injuries on defense right now.  They could potentially be without four of their top five defensive backs.  They have injuries at linebacker and on the defensive line as well.  They have the longest injury list of any team in the NFL right now, and almost all of them are on defense.  It looks as though they will get their best offensive linemen in Laremy Tunsil back from injury this week as well.  

Conditions in Jacksonville will be perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, a 5% chance of precipitation and only 6.5 MPH winds forecasted.  I expect the Jaguars to score 30-plus in this one and the Texans to get 20-plus to easily cash this OVER 44 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Giants/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -10

The San Francisco 49ers look like the best team in the NFL through two weeks.  The New York Giants look like one of the worst teams in the NFL through two weeks.  That's why I'm willing to lay double-digits on the 49ers here at home against the Giants.

The 49ers dominated the Steelers 30-7 on the road in Week 1.  They gained 391 yards and 6.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 239 yards and 3.9 per play on defense.  The 49ers then beat the Rams 30-23 on the road only after a last-second field goal at the buzzer by the Rams.  They gained 365 yards and 6.8 yards per play on offense while holding the Rams to 4.9 yards per play on defense.  Yes, the Rams outgained them, but that's only because they ran 24 more plays.  Yards per play margin is a lot more important in the NFL.

The Giants were blasted 40-0 by the Cowboys in Week 1.  They only managed 171 total yards and 2.6 yards per play on offense against the Cowboys.  Then they had what was supposed to be a 'get right' game against arguably the worst team in the NFL last week in the Arizona Cardinals, and it was anything but.  The Giants needed to come back from a 28-7 deficit in the 3rd quarter to win on a field goal, 31-28.  The Giants allowed 379 yards and 6.3 yards per play to the Josh Dobbs and this pitiful Arizona offense.

That comeback effort will have taken a lot out of the Giants on a short week.  They will be fatigued playing their second consecutive road game.  Meanwhile, there's basically no travel at all for the 49ers and from Los Angeles back to Santa Clara, so they will have a big advantage in rest here.

Injuries also work in the 49ers favor here.  They are remarkably healthy right now with WR Brandon Aiyuk being the only scare.  He left the Rams game with a shoulder injury, but he returned to finish the game, so you have to think he's going to give it a go Thursday.  Meanwhile, the Giants lost their best playmaker in Saquan Barkley to an ankle injury while trying to center the ball for the game-winning field goal last week.

Barkley scored two of their four touchdowns last week and this offense was already bad with him, and it's going to be very bad without him.  Backup Matt Breida only had one rush for five yards last week.  LT Andrew Thomas is questionable and LG Ben Bredeson is doubtful.  LB Micah McFadden is questionable and LB Azeez Ojulari is questionable as well.  The injuries are already starting to add up for the Giants.

San Francisco went 9-1 ATS as a home favorite last year and outscored opponents by 14.5 points per game in this spot.  The 49ers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  San Francisco is 14-1 SU in its last 15 home games with the 14 wins coming by an average of 16.2 points per game.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* Browns/Steelers AFC North No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are coming off a 30-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, who may be the best team in the NFL.  Meanwhile, the Browns are coming off a 24-3 dismantling of the Bengals in the slop.  They simply own the Bengals, and Joe Burrow was rusty after just recently returning to practice, plus the slopping conditions favored the Browns.

The Steelers were 1-point favorites for this game on the lookahead line, and now they are 3-point underdogs, which is a 4-point adjustment.  That's too big of an adjustment for one game's results, and we'll take advantage of the line value and back the motivated 0-1 home underdog here against the fat and happy 1-0 team.

The Steelers have absolutely owned the Browns over the years, especially at home.  Pittsburgh is 46-12 SU against Cleveland since 1992, including 28-3 SU at home.  It's rare to find them as home underdogs to the Browns, but that's the opportunity we have been given here, and we'll take advantage.

Mike Tomlin is 10-2 ATS in home games following a loss by 14 points or more as the coach of Pittsburgh.  His teams are winning by 11.5 points per game in this spot.  The Steelers are 53-31-4 ATS as underdogs under Tomlin, including 16-5-3 ATS as home dogs.  Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Cleveland is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games following a win by 10 points or more over a division rival.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Pittsburgh) - off a home loss by 10 points or more in the first two weeks of the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Browns haven't won at Pittsburgh in the regular season since 1993.  Finally, the Steelers are 20-0 SU at home on Monday Night Football since 1991! Bet the Steelers Monday.

20* Saints/Panthers NFC South No-Brainer on Carolina +3.5

I like backing 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in Week 2.  The lookahead line for this game was Saints -1.5, and now it has been bet up to -3 and -3.5 in some places.  That's plenty of line value to pull the trigger on the home underdog here catching 3 points.

Carolina's 24-10 loss at Atlanta was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Panthers actually held the Falcons to 221 total yards and outgained them by 60 yards and had 20 first downs compared to 13 for Atlanta.  But the difference was the Panthers lost the turnover battle 3-0.

That was a tough spot for rookie QB Bryce Young in his NFL debut on the road in a hostile atmosphere in Atlanta.  I like his chances of playing much better at home in front of a rowdy crowd that will be on his side in anticipation of getting to see the top pick in the draft.  The Panthers rushed for 154 yards and 4.8 per carry against the Falcons, so they have the running game to take some pressure off Young.  They also are expected to get WR DJ Chark back from injury this week to give him another weapon.

The Saints beat the Titans 16-15 at home last week.  Ryan Tannehill gave that game away by throwing 3 interceptions in a game the Titans deserved to win.  Derek Carr was decent in his first start for the Saints, but they had no running game, rushing for 69 yards and 2.6 per carry.  Not having Alvin Kamara due to suspension is a big blow to this Saints offense.

Carolina is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games following a divisional loss by 10 points or more.  Carolina won both meetings with New Orleans last year despite being underdogs in both games, holding the Saints to 7 points at home and 14 points on the road.  They have this New Orleans offense figured out and I trust their defense to keep them in this game, while Young makes enough plays in the passing game for the Panthers to get the upset victory.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Bears +3

This is a classic overreaction from Week 1 results.  Tampa Bay upset Minnesota on the road 20-17 as 4-point underdogs, while Chicago was upset at home by Green Bay 38-20 as 1-point favorites.  Now the Bucs are 3-point favorites over the Bears in Week 2 after the lookahead line had the Bears -2 for this game.  So that's a 5-point adjustment that's not warranted.

We all knew Minnesota would come back to the pack this year after going 11-0 in one-score games and actually getting outscored on the season last year.  But with that being said, the Vikings still should have won that game when you dive into the box score.

The Vikings outgained the Bucs 369 to 242, or by 127 total yards.  They also outgained the Bucs 5.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 2.3 yards per play.  They were dominant on the field, but their three turnovers proved costly as the Bucs didn't turn it over once.

Baker Mayfield isn't all of a sudden the savior for the Bucs.  He hasn't won in this league, and he's not going to be a winner in Tampa Bay, either.  Mayfield's teams are 0-8 ATS in his last eight starts as a favorite.  When he has expectations, he fails to meet them.  You want Mayfield in the underdog role with a chip on his shoulder.

Speaking of chip on their shoulder, the Bears will have that this week after a misleading 38-20 loss to the Packers in Week 1.  Chicago was only outgained by 18 yards by Green Bay in that game, but they lost the turnover battle 2-0.  The defense wasn't as bad as the 38 points would suggest considering they held the Packers to 329 total yards.

There is expected to be rain in Tampa Bay Sunday.  That's going to favor the team that wants to run the ball, which is the Bears.  They rushed for 122 yards and 4.2 per carry against the Packers.  The Bucs could only muster 73 rushing yards on 33 attempts against the Vikings, or just 2.2 yards per carry.  That's really poor when you consider the Eagles rushed for 259 yards and 5.4 per carry against the Vikings Thursday night.  The Bears held the Packers to 92 rushing yards on 32 attempts for 2.9 per carry.

Tampa Bay is 2-12 ATS in games played on grass over the last two seasons.  The Bucs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Plays on road teams (Chicago) - off a home loss by 10 points or more in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 (91.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Buffalo Bills -9

The Buffalo Bills beat up on bad teams.  It's just what they do.  You know they are going to want to beat up on the Raiders Sunday to get the sour taste out of their mouths from blowing a 10-point halftime lead to the Jets on Monday Night Football.  I think they lost their focus due to Aaron Rodgers going out with injury, and they won't make the same mistakes they made against the Jets.

The Bills could have simply kneeled and punted every possession in the 2nd half and won the game.  Instead, they committed four turnovers to give the game away, and Josh Allen made a bunch of mistakes that he doesn't normally make.  It's fair that he was rusty in the opener and playing an elite Jets defense that has his number.  Now he takes a big step down in class here against this soft Las Vegas defense and will be looking to make a statement.

I love backing 0-1 teams like the Bills coming off an upset loss against a 1-0 team like the Raiders coming off an upset win.  This line should be double-digits, but due to the overreaction from last week we are getting the Bills as single-digit favorites as a result.

The Raiders managed to upset the Broncos 17-16 as 3-point road underdogs last week.  The Broncos were playing their first game under Sean Payton and had some injuries, including their best WR in Jerry Jeudy sitting.  They made just enough plays to win that game.

I'm not a Jimmy Garoppolo believer.  He can't hang with Allen and the Bills in a shootout.  While Buffalo is almost fully healthy for this one, Las Vegas lost its No. 2 receiver in Jakobi Meyers to a concussion against the Broncos last week.  Their offense will be significantly hampered without Meyers as the Bills can simply focus on stopping Davante Adams.

Josh Allen is 16-1 SU as a favorite of 7 points or more in his career and his teams usually dominate in this spot.  He is 44-13 as a favorite overall with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points per game, and 27-7 as a home favorite with an average margin of victory of 9.0 points per game.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Jaguars AFC No-Brainer on Jacksonville +3

I look at the Jacksonville Jaguars as a legit Super Bowl contender this season.  While the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals and Jets were getting all of the hype coming into the season, the Jaguars are the sleeper team that could win it all.  They will be out to prove that Sunday with the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs coming to town.

The Jaguars also want revenge from two losses to the Chiefs last season.  They lost 27-17 on the road as 10-point underdogs during the regular season and 27-20 as 10-point road dogs in the playoffs.  They hung right with the Chiefs only getting outgained by 13 yards in that playoff meeting.  Now they get the Chiefs at home this time around.

You could make the argument that the Jaguars have the most explosive offense in the NFL now.  They traded for Calvin Ridley in the offseason and he and Trevor Lawrence are already forming a great connection.  They beat the Colts 31-21 in the opener on the road.  Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one of which went to Ridley, who led the team with 11 receptions for 101 yards in the win.  Then there's Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram that teams are going to have to account for, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield.

The Jaguars also have playmakers all over the defense and held the Colts to 280 total yards and 4.1 yards per play.  They can more than hold their own on this side of the ball, and now they are very familiar with Kansas City's system having played them twice.  Travis Kelce may return this week from a knee injury, but he won't be 100% after sitting out the Detroit game.  Patrick Mahomes just wasn't comfortable with his receivers without him.

Everyone is on the Chiefs with over 80% of the bets and over 80% of the money just automatically assuming their going to bounce back.  I'll go contrarian here and back the Jaguars, who I have power-rated much higher than most this season.  The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing for the winners and the losers, and I question Kansas City's motivation early in the season when these games don't matter as much.  I know we're going to get 100% effort from the Jaguars playing with double-revenge from last season after the Chiefs ended their season.

Plays on home teams (Jacksonville) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent, a team that had a winning record last season are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS since 1983.  Kansas City is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games vs. AFC opponents.  Jacksonville is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 home games following a divisional road win.  Doug Pederson is 15-4 ATS as a home underdog as a head coach.  Bet Jacksonville Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 50.5

You could make the argument that the Jaguars have the most explosive offense in the NFL now.  They traded for Calvin Ridley in the offseason and he and Trevor Lawrence are already forming a great connection.  They beat the Colts 31-21 in the opener on the road.  Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one of which went to Ridley, who led the team with 11 receptions for 101 yards in the win.  Then there's Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram that teams are going to have to account for, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield.

As you already know, the Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes and company.  Drops hurt them in their Week 1 loss to the Lions, plus the fact that they didn't have their best playmakers in Travis Kelce.  You can expect a much better offensive performance from the Chiefs in this one.

The Chiefs didn't have much problem scoring points against the Jaguars last season.  They put up 27 points in each of their two meetings.  No question the Chiefs will get their points again, but I now think the Jaguars have the offense to keep up with them in a shootout with the addition of Ridley.

Kansas City is 6-0 OVER in its last six road games played on a grass field, and we're seeing 65.5 combined points per game in this spot.  Andy Reid is 11-3 OVER in road games following a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Kansas City.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Bengals AFC North No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5

Joe Burrow didn't play a snap in the preseason and it showed as he clearly wasn't himself against the Cleveland Browns last week.  Burrow went 14-of-31 for 82 yards while averaging 2.6 yards per attempt as the Bengals managed just 3 points against the Browns.  I don't think it will magically be fixed in one week.

The Ravens managed 25 points against the Houston Texans last week but that came on just 265 total yards.  Lamar Jackson is learning a new offense and it's going to take some time.  But the Ravens were great defensively limiting the Texans to 9 points and 268 total yards.

Clearly both defenses are ahead of the offenses right now, and I expect that to be the case again Sunday.  The Ravens are already decimated by injuries right now.  RB JK Dobbins suffered a torn achilles in Week 1, and OT Ronnie Stanfley, C Tyler Linderbaum and TE Mark Andrews are all questionable to play in Week 2.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, this will be the 4th meeting between the Ravens and Bengals since Week 5 last year.  The first meeting saw just 36 combined points, the second meeting saw just 43 combined points, and the 3rd meeting in the playoffs saw just 41 combined points.  As you can see, all three meetings stayed well UNDER this 46.5-point total.  It should be more of the same given the circumstances in Week 2 Sunday.

Cincinnati is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine September games.  Zac Taylor is 13-3 UNDER in September games as the coach of Cincinnati, so his teams tend to start slow offensively but have been on point defensively.  Cincinnati is 12-3 UNDER in its last 15 games against AFC opponents.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Vikings/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Minnesota +7.5

Two teams coming off misleading finals square off Thursday night.  The Minnesota Vikings were upset by the Tampa Bay Bucs 20-17 as 4-point favorites when they had no business losing that game when you dive into the box score.  The Philadelphia Eagles won 25-20 at New England to cover as 3.5-point favorites in a game they had no business winning when you look at the box score.

Backing 0-1 SU & 0-1 ATS against 1-0 SU & 1-0 ATS in Week 2 is a winning proposition.  It's simply fading public perception and overreactions from Week 1.  The Vikings are much better than their final score showed against the Bucs, while the Eagles aren't nearly as good as their final score showed against the Patriots.

The Vikings outgained the Bucs 369 to 242, or by 127 total yards.  They also outgained the Bucs 5.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 2.3 yards per play.  They were dominant on the field, but their three turnovers proved costly as the Bucs didn't turn it over once.  The Vikings look to have an improved defense this year, which is something they have been missing.  And the offense is as explosive as ever.

The Patriots basically handed the Eagles two touchdowns with a 70-yard interception return TD and another turnover that set up a short field only minutes later.  The Eagles led 16-0 in a blink of an eye in the first quarter.  But the Patriots were the much better team for the final three quarters.

The Patriots outgained the Eagles 382 to 251, or by 131 total yards.  The Patriots outgained the Eagles 4.9 yards per play to 4.1, or by 0.8 yards per play.  The Eagles struggled to get anything going offensively, and now that teams have film on Jalen Hurts he might not be nearly as good as he was last year.  Hurts only averaged 5.2 yards per pass and 4.1 yards per rush and was sacked three times.

The Vikings want revenge from a 24-7 loss on primetime to the Eagles last year.  That was a rare game decided by more than one score for the Vikings.  In fact, 13 of their last 17 games have been decided by one score dating back to last season.  LB Dean is out for the Eagles, CB Bradberry is doubtful, and DT Cox is questionable to really make their defense short-handed.  The Vikings are nearly fully healthy for this one.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +2.5

The Jets finally got their quarterback and have one of the most complete teams in the NFL now.  They arguably have the league's best defense, and Rodgers is loaded with playmakers like Garrett Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Breece Hall and the ageless Randall Cobb.  The only concern with the Packers is their offensive line, but Rodgers' checks at the line of scrimmage and quick release always makes up for offensive line problems.

The Jets are going to have a huge home-field advantage in this game as fans are going nuts about this team in the offseason.  The hype is real, and we're going to see that in Week 1.  The Bills are missing their best pass rusher in Von Miller, who has been placed on the PUP list.  Without him, the Bills won't be able to exploit the one weakness on the Jets in their O-Line.  I also wasn't impressed with the Bills at all in the preseason as Josh Allen struggled to move the ball and put up points when he was in there.  The interior of the offensive line is a weakness, and the Jets will exploit it.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018.  Aaron Rodgers made 119 home starts at Lambeau Field in his career and was only an underdog eight times.  Rodgers is 6-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Rodgers is also a perfect 9-0 SU on Monday Night Football since 2013.  Week 1 Monday Night Football underdogs are 28-12-1 ATS since 1998.  Finally, this is the anniversary of 9-11, so that will only add to the raucous crowd the Jets will have in support of them.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +3.5

The New York Giants didn't get much credit for going 9-7-1 in Brian Daboll's first season and winning a playoff game.  That's evident by the fact that they have opened as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.  They are once again getting disrespected, and we'll take advantage here.

I don't think Kellen Moore was the problem last year for the Cowboys, but he was definitely the scapegoat.  I just don't trust Mike McCarthy and don't think it's going to work with him long-term.  The Cowboys have a ton of offensive skill talent, but the offensive line is becoming an issue now after previously being a strength.  They could be without LG Tyler Smith, who was added to the injury report this week.  RG Zack Martin is in the midst of a holdout.  The strength of the Giants is their defensive line, and they will win the battle at the line of scrimmage against Dallas' offensive line.

Daboll didn't have many weapons for Daniel Jones to work with last year, but he should have a few more this year.  They added TE Darren Waller and WR Jalin Hyatt.  The offensive line should also be better with 2nd-round pick C John Michael Schmitz Jr to go along with Pro Bowl LT Andrew Thomas and RT Evan Neal, who has to be better after being a Top 10 pick two years ago.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018. The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in Week 1 under McCarthy.  The Giants went 6-5-1 SU & 10-2 ATS as underdogs under Daboll last season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3.5

The Atlanta Falcons will contend for a NFC South title this year.  Desmond Ridder got his feet wet at the end of last season and is now familiar with the offense and ready to hit the ground running in 2023.  They drafted RB Bijan Robinson, who will be an impact player right away and the Falcons should challenge for leading the league in rushing this year.  Drake London and Kyle Pitts are two solid weapons on the outside.

After being ranked dead last in pressure rate each of the last two seasons, upgrading the pass rush was a necessity this offseason.  They did just that by adding DE Calais Campbell, LB Bud Dupree and DT David Onyemata, who along with Grady Jarrett will wreak havoc in opposing backfield this season.

The Carolina Panthers looked terrible in the preseason even when starters were out there against opposing teams' backups.  No. 1 pick Bryce Young will be running for his life behind a terrible offensive line.  RB Miles Sanders and WR's DJ Chark Jr. and Terrace Marshall are highly questionable to play Sunday with injuries.  And the defense doesn't generate any pressure with the exception of LB Brian Burns, who is holding out waiting for a contract extension.  What a me

Atlanta should control this game from start to finish by using long, extended drives on the ground to wear out this Carolina defense.  I like the additions they made this offseason to upgrade their front seven defensively, so they should be able to manhandle this weak Carolina offensive line and make life very difficult on Young.  No. 1 picks at QB making the first start of the season are 0-13-1 SU & 1-13 ATS in their last 14 tries.  The last No. 1 pick to win their first start was David Carr way back in 2002.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3.5

Another year, another chance for the betting public to disrespect Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans.  He and the Titans do the best work when they are counted out, and it looks like they are being counted out again in Week 1 as 3.5-point road underdogs to the New Orleans Saints.

Ryan Tannehill is entering a contract year and has plenty of motivation.  Henry just keeps on ticking and had 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns last year despite missing his starting left tackler for all but one game.  They signed former first-round pick Andre Dillard to replace Tayler Lewan while also drafting LG Peter Skoronski with the No. 11 pick to upgrade the offensive line.  They signed DeAndre Hopkins at receiver to make a nice 1-2 punch with the talented Treylon Burks on the outside.

The Titans have a great defense led by Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry and Teir Tart up front, and a stellar safety tandem in Kevin Byard and Armani Hooker protecting the back end.  The pass rush gets a big boost with the return of Harold Landry, who tore his ACL in late August last year and didn't play a single snap in 2022.  He had 12.5 sacks in 2021.

Derek Carr will be making his first start with a new team behind a shoddy offensive line.  Alvin Kamara won't be available as he serves a four-game suspension, and the Saints just haven't been nearly as explosive without their dynamic back on the field.  The New Orleans Saints lack a pass rush defensively, and the Titans have the big coaching advantage with Vrabel over Dennis Allen, especially with all offseason to prepare for this game.

Vrabel is 22-9-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher as a head coach.  Carr is 17-29-1 ATS as a favorite as a starting quarterback.  Allen is 15-38 SU & 21-31-1 ATS as a head coach.  New Orleans is 6-9 SU at home over the past two seasons, and only three teams have won fewer than six home games in that span.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* Bengals/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on Cleveland +3

Deshaun Watson shook off some rust last season after returning from an 11-game suspension.  He should hit the ground running in 2023 now that he has two years in the system.  He has one of the best running games to rely on so he doesn't have to be the guy he was in Houston, though he is still capable of being that guy when they need him to.

Speaking of rust, the Cincinnati Bengals could be rusty with Joe Burrow returning from injury.  He didn't play at all in the preseason and I expect them to get off to a slow start.  I also expect the Browns to win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one as they have the better offensive and defensive lines, and you know the Dawg Pound will be rocking for the season-opener, providing them with a big home-field advantage.

This Cleveland defense was a disappointment last year, but they had some major upgrades this offseason.  They signed DT Dalvin Tomlinson, who is an excellent run-stuffer and can rush the passer.  They also signed another former Viking in DE Za'Darius Smith, who collected 10 sacks for Minnesota last year.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018.  Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last five home meetings with Cleveland, including a 32-13 win as 3-point home underdogs last year.  They rushed for 172 yards in that win and outgained the Bengals 440 to 229, or by 211 yards in that home win.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* 49ers/Steelers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pittsburgh +2.5

No team was more impressive in the preseason than the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They went 3-0 winning all three games by double-digits while outscoring the opposition 78-32.  Kenny Pickett is ready to go after getting his feet wet as a rookie last year.  He has some great weapons on the outside and is quickly forming a great chemistry with George Pickens.  The Steelers have a great offensive line and solid running game with Najee Harris.

But the strength of the Steelers is their defense, and they have been a different beast when TJ Watt has been healthy.  They went 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS with Watt on the field last year and ranked 6th against the pass, while they were 1-6 and ranked 30th against the pass without him. I think their defense will give Brock Purdy and this average 49ers offensive line fits.  Remember, Purdy is coming back from offseason elbow surgery, so he could show some rust.  And I think having game film on him now gives Mike Tomlin a big edge to try and take away his strengths and make Purdy make mistakes.

Speaking of importance of pass rushers, Nick Bosa is holding out to try and get a new contract.  He and Watt may very well be the two best pass rushers in the game right now.  The 49ers lost to the Falcons without Bosa last year, and badly.  San Francisco's weakness defensively is the secondary, and that will get exploited if Bosa isn't on the field.  Watt will have his way against the 49ers who will be starting a new tackle.

The 49ers are notorious slow starters under Kyle Shanahan, going 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in Week 1.  They were upset by the lowly Chicago Bears on the road last season.  This is only the second time the Steelers have been home underdogs in Week 1 since 2000.  Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three Week 1 games, including an upset win at Buffalo last year.  The Steelers are 53-30-4 ATS as underdogs under Tomlin, including 16-4-3 ATS as home dogs.  Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* Lions/Chiefs 2023 NFL Season Opener on Detroit +6

Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice this week and is doubtful to play Thursday.  He means everything to the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes because he's his security blanket on 3rd down and in the red zone.  Kelce finished with 210 receptions for 1,338 yards and 12 TD last year.  He has topped 83 receptions and 1,000 yards in seven consecutive seasons and hasn't missed a game other than when they were resting starters.

DT Chris Jones is out Thursday due to a holdout as contract negotiations have stalled.  He had 15.5 sacks last year and is their best player on defense.  So the Chiefs are missing two of their three best players to start the 2023 season.  They are extremely vulnerable here as a 6-point favorite in a game they will likely lose outright, and at the very least struggle to get out with a close win.

The upstart Detroit Lions went 8-2 in their final 10 games last year to make a run at the playoffs.  They beat the Packers in Week 17 on the road to keep them out.  They finished 9-8 for their first winning record since 2017.  They scored 26.6 points per game and average 380 yards per game with a Top 5 offense in the NFL.  The defense got better as the season progressed and an influx of talent on that side of the ball should have them improving again this season.  They are also extremely healthy to start the season.

Jared Goff looks as comfortable as he's ever been in Detroit.  He is also 6-0 ATS in Week 1 as a starting quarterback.  The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games in the first half of the season.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Lions.  Detroit is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  Dan Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Detroit.  Bet the Lions Thursday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles ML -120

Note: Scroll down to the bottom for my FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets

This is a great matchup for the Philadelphia Eagles.  They will be able to run the football at will on the Kansas City Chiefs on offense, and they are perfectly set up to stop them defensively with their ability to defend the pass.  The Eagles are better everywhere than the Chiefs except at quarterback and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.

The Eagles rank 4th in the NFL at 153.9 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry on the season.  And they faced the 2nd-easiest schedule of opposing rush offenses, so they haven't seen anything like this physical, read-option attack of the Eagles.  Philadelphia faced a Top 10 schedule of opposing rush defenses, making their numbers even more impressive.

The Chiefs won't be able to run on Philadelphia and likely will abandon the running game for the most part.  Mahomes isn't close to 100% and that showed against the Bengals as he didn't scramble until the game was on the line.  He either moved up in the pocket or rolled out to the right, so the Eagles will be prepared for those two moves.  The Eagles rank 1st in the NFL allowing just 171.0 passing yards per game, 1st in sack percentage (11.49%) and 1st in sacks per game (4.1).  The Chiefs have two of the four worst offensive tackles in the NFL in terms of pressures allowed.  Mahomes is going to be under duress for four quarters in this one.

A lot has been made about how the Eagles played the easiest schedule in the NFL.  And while true, they handled their business.  A counter argument is that the Eagles are actually 7-1 against teams with winning records this season while outscoring them by a total of 115 points, or by an average of 14.4 points per game.   They had an easy path to the Super Bowl and will be fresh as a result after getting a bye, beating the Giants by 31 and the 49ers by 24 while receiving another bye prior to the Super Bowl.  They couldn't possibly be more fresh.

Kansas City consistently found itself in one-possession games this season, including both playoff games with a 7-point win over the Jaguars and a 3-point win over the Bengals in which they are aided by the refs.  They also had more injuries pile up in that win over the Bengals.  They are without WR Hardman, while both Toney and Smith-Schuster are less than 100%.  They also have CB Sneed and LB Gay banged up.  The Eagles are in much better shape health-wise.

This line moved towards the Eagles on the opener and I agree with it.  When the line moves towards one team in the Super Bowl off the opener, those teams have gone 11-4 ATS over the last 15 tries.  The only reason the Eagles aren't -3 here is because the Chiefs have Mahomes.  But the Eagles are better everywhere else and have no weaknesses.  I expect them to lead from start to finish in this one as a result, just as they have for most of the season when Hurts has been on the field.

The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS following an ATS win this season.  Kansas City is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games following a SU win.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine playoff games.  The last 9 reigning MVP's (Mahomes) who played in the Super Bowl all lost dating back to 2001.  Bet the Eagles on the Money Line in Super Bowl 57 Sunday.

FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets:

These are my favorite prop bets in order from strongest to weakest, so adjust your bet sizing accordingly. Don't go too crazy on these. They can all be found at DraftKings.

Eagles 1H ML: -120

OVER 1.5 4th Down Conversions: -160

Kelce Anytime TD: -125

Eagles Most Sacks: -125

Both Teams to Score 1+ Rushing TD: +125

UNDER 3.5 Made FG's: -165

Largest Lead UNDER 14.5 Points: -135

Kelce OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards: -120

Sanders Anytime TD: +125

Chiefs UNDER 99.5 Rushing Yards: -110

Sanders OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards: -110

Will Both Teams make a 33-plus Yard FG: NO -115

Smith Longest Reception OVER 23.5: -125

Eagles OVER 2.5 Sacks: -140

2-Point Conversion Attempt: YES +120

Super Bowl MVP Bets:

Sanders 22/1

Smith 30/1

20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 48

Patrick Mahomes is hobbled and not himself.  Travic Kelce is nursing a back injury and questionable.  And the Cincinnati Bengals are missing three starters along the offensive line.  All these offensive injuries to both teams have me liking the UNDER in the AFC Championship Game.  Plus, temps will be around 20 at kickoff and only getting colder as the night progresses with double-digit MPH winds as well.

Cincinnati has played four consecutive defensive battles and has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL.  Their last four games have seen 40, 43, 41 and 37 combined points.  They have allowed 24 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, including 18 or fewer in six of those.  They rode their defense to the Super Bowl last season and are doing it again this season.

Maybe the bigger surprise is just how well Kansas City has played defensively down the stretch.  They have allowed just 16.8 points per game in their last four games and 297.4 yards per game in their last five games.  They haven't allowed 350 or more yards in any of their last six games.  They will have a good game plan to slow down Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati offense in this rematch from a 24-27 road loss.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 4th meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals in the past two seasons.  They know each other inside and out, and that favors the defenses more than the offenses.  That's especially the case here since both defenses are very healthy while both offenses are banged up.

The UNDER is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 playoff games.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Bengals last 17 games vs. AFC opponents.  The UNDER is 43-19-2 in Bengals last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven home games.  Cincinnati is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games as a road underdog.  Kansa City is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Championship No-Brainer on San Francisco +3

I've been waiting for a +3 on the 49ers all week and it has finally started to pop up at multiple books this morning.  Grab a +3 if available or buy it to +3 (-120) or better.  The 49ers are showing tremendous value catching a full field goal against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

The 49ers are the better team in my opinion.  They have gone 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have scored at least 31 points in eight of those 12 games, and they have allowed an average of just 14.9 points per game during this winning streak.  They have the best defense in the NFL and an underrated offense with Brock Purdy, who has a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio in leading the 49ers to each of their last eight victories.

The Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season.  That schedule has been very easy down the stretch as they have faced the Giants three times, the Saints, Cowboys, Bears, and Titans in their last seven games.  This is a big step up in class for them and easily the toughest opponent they have faced all season.

One key matchup that favors the 49ers is the ground game.  The Eagles have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL and have allowed 106 or more rushing yards in 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They allowed 99 and 87 yards in the other two instances.  The 49ers rely heavily on running the football as they have rushed for at least 153 yards in six of their last seven games overall.  They will be able to get what they want on the ground, which is going to continue to take a lot of pressure off Purdy.

The Eagles need to be able to run the ball to be successful on offense.  In their last three losses, they managed just 67 rushing yards against the Saints, 87 against the Cowboys and 94 against the Commanders.  Well, now they are up against a 49ers defense that ranks 2nd allowing just 79.0 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 3.4 yards per carry.  The 49ers will shut down their running game and make Jalen Hurts try and beat them through the air.  He is the worse passer of these two quarterbacks.

Kyle Shanahan is 11-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco.  I give the edge to Shanahan over Nick Sirianni and it's not even close when you compare playoff experience between the two.  I trust Shanahan to make some key decisions here that will help put the 49ers in position to win, and Sirianni to make some mistakes for the Eagles with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5

25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -4

This line should be closer to 49ers -7.  The Dallas Cowboys are getting too much respect for their win in prime time Monday Night over the Tampa Bay Bucs.  They beat a washed up Tom Brady who was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.  Dak Prescott had a career game, and just everything that could go right for Dallas did.

Now the Cowboys are in a terrible spot playing their 4th consecutive road game and on a short week.  These haven't been short trips either as all four have been 700-plus miles for the Cowboys.  They won't have much left in the tank this week for the 49ers, who played last Saturday and have had two extra days to rest and prepare for this game than the Cowboys.  This is where the Cowboys' season comes to an end in blowout fashion.

They have to play the hottest team in the NFL in the 49ers, who have won 10 consecutive game the last six of which have come with Brock Purdy at quarterback.  The 49ers have scored 35-plus points in five of the six games started by Purdy with the lone exception being against the Seahawks in his second start on the road.  They also kneeled at the 1-yard line to end that game.  Purdy has a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season and is averaging 9 yards per attempt.

The 49ers rank 5th in scoring offense at 27.3 points per game, 5th in total offense at 373.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per play.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 302.3 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play.  They are the most complete team in the NFL with almost zero weaknesses.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season with all of their key weapons and defenders healthy.

Things won't come nearly as easy for Dak Prescott as they did against the Bucs.  The Cowboys have a suspect offensive line and the 49ers have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, plus they give up nothing against the run.  Purdy is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which will negate Dallas' pass rush, which is the strength of their team.  Micah Parsons won't be all over Purdy like he was all over Tom Brady.  The Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Purdy will be able to exploit, plus the 49ers will have their way on the ground against the Cowboys, too.  They have rushed for 153 or more yards in all six games with Purdy under center.

Dallas was not playing well prior to the Tampa Bay game.  They lost 26-6 at Washington in Week 18 against third-string QB Sam Howell.  They beat a Titans team that was resting starters and playing a 3rd-string QB and needed to pull away in the 4th quarter just to do that.  They needed a late turnover from the Eagles to beat them with backup QB Minshew at home.  They lost to the Jaguars in OT on the road.  And they needed a last-second drive to beat the lowly Houston Texans by 4 at home.  They were playing like shit prior to that win over the Bucs, which was clearly the aberration.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have gone 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more while outgaining nine of their 10 opponents.  The lone exception was against the Raiders on January 1st which was clearly a letdown spot.  The 49ers spent NYE in Vegas and probably partied too hard, thinking they'd just have to show up to win against a backup QB.  That performance can be forgiven.  When they have been locked in, they have been absolutely dominant.  The 49ers have outscored their opponents by an average of 16.2 points per game during their 10-game winning streak.

The 49ers have a huge advantage in the coaching department with Shanahan over McCarthy, too.  Shanahan is 10-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco.  The 49ers are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game.  San Francisco is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games dating back to last season.  The 49ers won 23-17 at Dallas in the playoffs last season.  The Cowboys have exactly one playoff road win since 1993.  Dak is 1-4 ATS in his playoff career.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* Bengals/Bills AFC ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -5.5

These are two teams coming off misleading results in the Wild Card Round.  The Bills should have beaten the Dolphins by more when you look at the numbers, while the Bengals should have lost outright to the Ravens.  Those misleading results have provided us with some line value to pull the trigger on the Buffalo Bills this week.  They should be closer to 7-point favorites against the Bengals at home this week when you factor in everything.

The Bills have won eight consecutive games and are playing with a lot of motivation for Damar Hamlin, plus the fact that they've never won a Super Bowl and feel like they should have won last year.  They are on a mission this season, and it's the defending AFC champion Bengals standing in their way this week, which only adds to the motivation.

The Bills felt like they just had to show up to win last week, and it showed after jumping out to a 17-0 lead they found themselves in a dog fight with the Dolphins.  They survived 34-31, but it was a bigger blowout than the final score.  The Bills outgained the Dolphins by 192 yards and held to them to just 231 total yards, which should make it impossible for them to score 31 points.  But the Bills committed three turnovers that set up easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins.  Look for them to clean it up this week.

The Bengals beat the Ravens 24-17 at home last week.  They won despite getting outgained by 130 yards and racking up only 234 yards of total offense.  That came a week after the Bengals beat the Ravens 27-16 in Week 18 despite getting outgained by 129 yards and being held to 257 yards.  Their luck runs out this week on the road in a hostile environment against a much better team in the Bills.

A big reason the Bengals have struggled on offense the past two weeks averaging just 245.5 yards per game against the Ravens is because of a banged-up offensive line.  The Bengals will now be down three starters on the offensive line this week against the Bills.  Joe Burrow is going to be under duress the entire game.  He was sacked a ton in the playoffs last year, but his defense and his kicker bailed him out.  The defense won't stop this potent Bills offense, and he won't be bailed out this week when he's getting sacked more than a handful of times.  And this is coming from one of the biggest Burrow believers you will find.  I just think this is too much for him to handle this week.

Buffalo averages 6.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play this season.  Cincinnati averages 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even on a yards per play basis.  This shows Buffalo is by far the superior team.  

The Bills are 7-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Sean McDermott is 11-1 ATS following a win by 3 points or less as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bills are 7-0 ATS following a win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Chiefs UNDER 53

This total is way too high given how well both of these defenses have been playing down the stretch, especially the Chiefs.  The improvement of this Kansas City defense has been flying under the radar.  They have allowed just 17.8 points per game and 285 yards per game in their last four games overall.

The Jaguars have allowed just 13 points per game and 284 yards per game in their last four games overall.  That includes the 30 points they allowed to the Chargers last week, which was very fluky because it came with five turnovers from the Jaguars who gave the Chargers a ton of short fields en route to a 27-0 lead.  That game saw 61 combined points with a big Jaguars comeback, but it shouldn't have since the Chargers only had 320 total yards while the Jaguars had 390 in comeback mode.  That result has inflated this total this week.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be the 2nd meeting between the Chiefs and Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium this season.  The Chiefs won that first meeting 27-17 for just 44 combined points.  The Jaguars were held to just 315 total yards in defeat.  The Chiefs moved the ball well, but I expect the Jaguars to be much better defensively in the rematch.  And Kansas City is good at sitting on the ball and milking clock with a lead, which is why they always tend to play in closer game because they quit scoring and let teams back in it.  That makes them a great UNDER team.

The UNDER is 6-2 in Chiefs eight home games this season with an average of just 44.5 combined points per game.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Jaguars last 11 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games vs. good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs +3

The Dallas Cowboys haven't won a road playoff game since January of 1993.  Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys including a 19-3 win at Dallas earlier this season.  The Cowboys failed to reach the red zone once in that first meeting.  The Cowboys are 1-4 on grass this season while going 11-1 on turf, and they will be outdoors on grass here where their speed isn't as much of a factor.

Dak Prescott is also 0-4 ATS in the playoffs in his career.  Prescott tied for the NFL lead in interceptions this season despite missing five games.  He was terrible in a game the Cowboys were trying to win last week against Washington.  He went 14-of-37 for 128 yards with one touchdown and one interception while averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.

The Cowboys lost that game 26-6 to the Commanders as 7-point road favorites.  Their 15 'drives' went like this; fumble, 3 and out, 3 and out, pick-6, 3 and out, 3 and out, TD, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, turnover on downs, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out.  That doesn't look like a team that is playoff-ready, and certainly not one that should be laying points on the road.

Tom Brady had his best game of the season against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 with a spot in the playoffs on the line.  Brady went 34-of-45 for 432 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions to lead the Bucs to a 30-24 win.  He has all of his weapons healthy and may be getting back some key pieces along the offensive line.  The Bucs were able to rest starters for the majority of the game against the Falcons last week and will be fresh and ready to go.

I trust Brady over Prescott, and I also trust this Tampa Bay defense over this Dallas defense.  The Cowboys gave up 40 points and 503 yards to the Jaguars, 34 points and 442 yards against the Eagles and 26 points and 309 yards against the Commanders in three of their last four games.  The other game be thrown out as the Titans rested their starters in Week 17.

The Bucs rank 13th in scoring defense at 21.1 points per game on the season and you can throw out the 30 points they gave up to the Falcons in Week 18 because they rested starters on defense.  The Bucs also rank 9th in total defense at 324.3 yards per game and 10th at 5.1 yards per play.  They held the Cowboys to 3 points and 244 total yards in that first meeting back in Week 1 this season.

Teams that have played the tougher schedule than their opponent on the season have been great bets in the wild card round.  The Bucs played the 13th-ranked schedule, while the Cowboys plays the 29th.  The team that played the tougher schedule is 54-28-2 ATS since 2002 in the wild card round.  If the difference in SOS is 10 or more, the team that played the tougher schedule is 30-9-1 ATS.

The Bucs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after gaining less than 250 total yards in their previous game.  Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Plays against favorites (Dallas) - in a game between two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Bucs Monday.

15* Chargers/Jaguars AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Jacksonville +2.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars have all the momentum heading into the playoffs.  They went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games overall and needed every single victory just to get into the playoffs.  Teams that come into the playoffs with momentum are dangerous teams.

That explains why Brandon Staley played his starters for so long with Herbert and Allen still in the game well into the 4th quarter against the Broncos last week.  But they fell short 28-31, which ended their four-game winning streak.  They put a lot into that game to try and win it, and it proved costly as two of their best players in DE Bosa and WR Williams left the field with injuries.  Bosa is good to go this week even if hobbled, but Williams was carted off with a back injury and is very questionable.

The key to the Chargers' turnaround down the stretch was getting both WR Williams and WR Allen back on the field healthy.  But without Williams they are much easier to defense because he is such a great deep ball threat, and a great jump ball receiver in red zone opportunities.  I have no doubt head coach Staley regrets his decision to play the starters in a meaningless Week 18 game.

The Jaguars have a big rest advantage here as they beat the Titans on Saturday last week, so they will be on normal rest.  The Chargers played on Sunday and will now be on a short week with travel having to fly down to Jacksonville.  The edge in rest and preparation goes to the Jaguars, and the coaching edge certainly goes to the Jaguars as well.  Doug Pederson is 5-1 ATS as a head coach in the playoffs guiding the Eagles to a Super Bowl win even with Nick Foles.  Staley will be making his first playoff appearance as a head coach, as well most of their players.

A lot of people want to throw out that first meeting between the Jaguars and Chargers this season because Herbert was coming back from injury, and they didn't have Williams or Allen.  Those are fair points.  But the Jaguars beat them 38-10 and totally dominated.  Trevor Lawrence went 28-of-39 for 262 yards with three touchdowns and zero picks.  They rushed for 151 yards as a team.  They held the Chargers to just 312 total yards despite playing come from behind style football.

A lot is being made of this QB battle between Lawrence and Herbert, but I think a key factor is that the Jaguars are going to be able to run the football while the Chargers are not.  That will make life much easier on Lawrence and much more difficult on Herbert.  Lawrence has been great down the stretch with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his last nine games and is living up to his full potential under Pederson.

The Chargers rank 28th against the run allowing 145.8 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 5.4 yards per carry.  The Jaguars rank 12th against the run at 114.8 yards per game and 7th at 4.2 yards per carry.  Travis Etienne, who has rushed for 1,125 yards and 5.1 per carry this season, is going to have a monster game to lead the way.  I trust Pederson to stick to the run knowing this is his greatest advantage in this game.

The Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after scoring 25 points or more in two consecutive games.  Wrong team favored here given all the factors working in Jacksonville's favor, including momentum, rushing, coaching and rest and preparation advantages.  Roll with the Jaguars Saturday.

BONUS FREE NFL TEASERS:

7-Point Teaser: 49ers -2.5/Bengals -2.5 or better

6-Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5/Bucs +8.5

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 43

There is a flood watch in Santa Clara on Saturday with a 100% chance of rain and 30-40 MPH winds in the morning.  It is expected to clear out a little by game time, but it's likely going to be a sloppy field worst case.  We don't need the weather help to cash this UNDER, but it's certainly a bonus.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these division rivals.  The 49ers won 27-7 for 34 combined points in the first meeting.  Seattle's only score came on a blocked FG return TD.  The 49ers won 21-13 in the 2nd meeting for 34 combined points again.  Seattle's lone TD came in garbage time trailing 21-6 with under four minutes to play.

So this Seattle offense has only scored one TD in eight quarters against this elite 49ers defense this season, and it came in garbage time of a blowout.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, 1st in total defense at 300.6 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play.  Nothing is going to come easy for Seattle, which has average just 246.5 yards per game in two meetings with the 49ers this season.

Seattle's defense has been playing much better down the stretch.  They have held their last four opponents to an average of just 16.8 points per game in their last four games, which is impressive when you consider they faced the 49ers and Chiefs during this stretch.  They held the Chiefs to just 297 total yards, the Jets to 279 total yards and the Rams to 269 total yards in their last three games heading into the playoffs.  But Seattle is scoring just 16.3 points per game in its last four games overall as well.

Wild Card Round UNDERS are 27-11 dating back to 2012.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Seahawks last four games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in 49ers last four playoff games.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

BONUS FREE NFL TEASERS:

7-Point Teaser: 49ers -2.5/Bengals -2.5 or better

6-Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5/Bucs +8.5

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

The Dallas Cowboys are technically still alive for the No. 1 seed and the NFC East title.  But the Philadelphia Eagles are 14-point favorites over the New York Giants, who are expected to be resting starters.  They would need the Eagles to lose, and it's just unlikely to happen and they know it.  Expect the Cowboys to maybe try for a quarter or two, but to pull their starters in the second half.

Either way, the Washington Commanders are capable of hanging with the Cowboys even if they were to play all their starters for four quarters.  The Cowboys are getting getting too much respect for their 6-1 run to close out the season.  The run has come against the Giants, Colts, Texans and Eagles at home as well as the Titans on the road.  

The Titans were playing their backups last week in what was a one-score game in the 4th quarter, the Eagles should have beaten them even with Gardner Minshew, and the Cowboys needed a last-second TD to beat the Texans in three of their last four games, while also losing outright at Jacksonville in between.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Commanders after going 0-3-1 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall against a brutal schedule of the Giants (twice), 49ers and Browns.  They were competitive in all four games.  They outgained the Giants by 99 yards in a tie, outgained the Giants by 95 yards ina. loss, were only outgained by 22 yards by the 49ers in a misleading final, and were only outgained by 41 yards by the Browns in a misleading final.

Carson Wentz returned to the field and promptly threw 3 interceptions to cost them the game against the Browns last week.  So getting Sam Howell at QB or a mix of him and Taylor Heinecke is an upgrade.  Howell could give this offense a spark, and he won't stop coming for four quarters.  The Commanders won't lay down for the Cowboys as these are their hated rivals.  They will try to win this game, and it should be enough to stay inside this inflated number Sunday.

The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine January games.  Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Dallas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Roll with the Commanders Sunday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

Mike Tomlin has never finished worth than .500 in his career as a head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  These players take on his mentality and have dug themselves out of a hole to put themselves in position to make the playoffs.  With a win and losses by both the Patriots and Dolphins on Sunday, the Steelers will be going to the playoffs.  Both the Patriots and Dolphins are underdogs in their games.

This turnaround has happened since TJ Watt returned from injury.  Pittsburgh is 58-26-2 with Watt and 1-10 without him in his career.  The Steelers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to the Ravens 14-16 after committing three turnovers in the red zone.  They deserved to win that game, too.  They have also beat the Colts, Falcons and Panthers on the road as well as the Raiders at home.

Watt and this Pittsburgh defense aren't allowing anything.  They have held their last six opponents all to 17 points or fewer and an average of just 14.7 points and 259.2 yards per game in those six games.  The last three games have been mighty impressive as they outgained the Panthers by 116 yards and held them to 209 yards, outgained the Raiders by 149 yards and held them to 201 yards and outgained the Ravens by 111 yards and held them to 240 yards.

Kenny Pickett is proving he was deserving as the pick to become their franchise quarterback.  He has delivered two clutch game-winning drives the last two weeks and is his confidence is growing because of it, and so is the confidence his teammates have in him.  Pickett is taking care of the football, too.  He has thrown just one interception in his last six starts.

The Cleveland Browns are getting too much respect for their upset win at Washington last week.  Carson Wentz gave that game away by throwing three interceptions.  Deshaun Watson only had nine completions in the win and has been worse than Jacoby Brissett.  Watson is completing just 56.7% of his passes for 872 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt in his five starts this season.

The key matchup here is that the Steelers are going to control this game by running the football at will against a soft Cleveland run defense.  The Steelers have rushed for at least 102 yards in seven of their last eight games overall as they are riding Najee Harris.  The Browns rank 25th against the run allowing 134.4 rushing yards per game and 25th allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games when playing its 2nd consecutive road game.  Kevin Stefanski is 3-13 ATS after covering the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of the Browns.  The Browns are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 games following an ATS win.  The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games v. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Browns.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins PK

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Miami Dolphins.  They have gone 0-5 in their last five games overall with each of their last four losses coming by one score.  They were in a one-score game with the 49ers as well in the 4th quarter in a misleading loss.  So they easily could have won any of their last five games.

The Dolphins definitely should have won their last two games as they outgained the Packers by 75 yards in a loss and outgained the Patriots by 84 yards in a loss.  But Tua threw three interceptions after getting concussed against the Packers, and Teddy Bridgewater threw a pick-six against the Patriots that changed the game and knocked him out of the game on the same play.

The Dolphins will likely go to third-string QB Skylar Thompson for this one, and this line is being adjusted too much because of it.  Thompson has gotten his feet wet in a few games already this season and has handled himself well.  Giving him an entire week to prepare to be the starter will pay big dividends for him.  He is ready for this moment.

Let's just look at this from a motivation perspective.  The Dolphins still have a great chance to make the playoffs because a win and a loss by the Patriots gets them in.  Well, the Patriots are 7.5-point road underdogs to the Buffalo Bills as of this writing.  The Bills need that game to secure the No. 1 or No. 2 seed, so they won't make it easy on the Patriots.  I would say the Dolphins are actually the favorites to get the final wild card spot in the AFC given the scenarios.

Meanwhile, the New York Jets were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 23-6 loss at Seattle last week.  That followed up a 19-3 home loss to Jacksonville.  I always like fading teams coming off their 'dream crusher' loss because they have a hard time getting back up off the mat.  The Jets will have a hard time being motivated for this game after just getting eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17.

Plays on home teams (Miami) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 points or more, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Jets are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games vs. AFC East opponents.  Miami is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Dolphins are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Miami.  

This is also a tough travel spot for the Jets having to come fly home to New York from Seattle to fly back out to Miami to play a game where the temps will be approaching 80 degrees, and I expect the Jets to run out of gas by the 4th quarter.  Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.

20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Las Vegas Raiders +7.5

The Las Vegas Raiders would love nothing more than to beat the Chiefs and keep them from a first-round bye and home-field advantage.  They hate the Chiefs and only lost 29-30 at Kansas City as 7.5-point underdogs.  Now they are 7.5-point home dogs in the rematch, so they haven't even adjusted for home-field advantage.

They are clearly adjusting too much for the Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback.  Stidham played under Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels in New England, so he knows the system.  And the Raiders had their best offensive performance of the season last week with Stidham at quarterback.

The Raiders racked up 34 points and 500 total yards against the best defense in the NFL in the 49ers.  Stidham went 23-of-34 passing for 365 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.  He made good use of his top two weapons in DeVante Adams and Darren Waller.  Adams had seven receptions for 153 yards and two touchdowns, while Waller had three receptions for 72 yards and a score.  The Raiders have the firepower to keep up with the Chiefs as they showed in that first meeting, and last week against the 49ers.

The Chiefs just have a way of playing to their level of competition.  That's why they have only covered the spread in four of their 16 games this season.  They just let the lowly Broncos hang around last week in a 27-24 home win as 13.5-point favorites.  That's a Broncos team that was coming off a 51-14 loss to the Rams the previous week.  Plus, all the pressure is on the Chiefs to get the win for the No. 1 seed, so the Raiders will kind of be free rolling here and playing more freely than the Chiefs.

Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC West opponents.  The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. AFC West opponents.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.  These six trends coming for a mind-blowing 36-1 system backing Las Vegas.  Bet the Raiders Saturday.

20* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay -3

The Green Bay Packers are about as healthy as they have been all season, and to no surprise it has coincided with their best stretch of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall to get right back into the playoff hunt.  They need some help, but they are doing their part, and they will want revenge on the Vikings after losing at Minnesota in Week 1.

The Vikings are the most fraudulent 12-3 team in the history of the NFL.  They are 11-0 in one score games this season and have only outscored their opponents by 5 total points on the season.  Their luck runs out this week against a Packers team that wants it more.  After all, the Vikings are locked into the No. 2 or No. 3 seed basically, which isn't that big of a difference.

While the Packers are outgaining their opponents by 6 yards per game on the season, the Vikings are actually getting outgained by nearly 50 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play.  That's unheard of for a 12-3 team.  They rank 28th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 31st in total defense at 402.3 yards per game and 31st at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  That's not a championship defense, and the Packers have been one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL since getting all their weapons healthy.

Kirk Cousins has always been worse outdoors and worse in any games that don't start at 1:00 EST on a Sunday.  He does not handle these big stages well.  It's going to be one of the best atmospheres of the season at Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon, and home-field advantage is worth at least 3 points for the Packers in this one.  I think they're the better team right now and need it more.

Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Vikings are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Vikings.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Chargers OVER 40.5

The Los Angeles Chargers blew it in Week 18 last season against the Raiders with a chance to go to the playoffs with a win.  Well, they don't have to worry about that any more as they just clinched a playoff spot over the Colts with a win on Monday Night Football.  I think they will be playing loose and free in this game against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17 and that favors their offense.

This Chargers offense has been much better since getting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back from injury.  The Chargers have averaged over 370 yards per game in their last three games with these two.  Williams has 14 receptions for 259 yards and a touchdown in his last three games since returning from injury, while Allen has 31 receptions for 282 yards in his last three games alongside Williams.

The Rams have been playing loose and free since Baker Mayfield took over at quarterback.  And now he has three games under his belt in Sean McVay's system and is clearly getting a lot more comfortable.  That showed last week when the Rams hung 51 points and 388 total yards on a very good Denver defense.  Mayfield had one of the most efficient games of his career, completing 24-of-28 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  The playbook will be even more open for him this week against the Chargers.

The Rams also finally got their running game going last week with 158 yards to help out Mayfield.  Well, the weakness of this Chargers defense is stopping the run.  They rank 26th in allowing 140.5 rushing yards per game and 31st allowing 5.3 yards per carry.  So Mayfield will not have to do it all.  I know the Chargers have been better of late defensively, but they have also benefitted from facing a couple terrible offenses in the Colts and Titans the last two weeks.

I think the fact that the Chargers have gone under the total in four consecutive games is keeping this total way lower than it should be.  Those totals were all 45 or higher.  Now this total is only 40.5, which is a big adjustment and way too big in my opinion.  This total should be closer to 45, especially with the life this Rams offense has showed of late.  And it's not like the Rams have been great defensively as they rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense and have allowed 24 or more points in five of their last seven games overall.  Aaron Donald remains out for the Rams, and the Chargers have a ton of key injuries on defense as well.

The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after a win by 10 points or more.  The OVER is 6-0 in Rams last six games after a home win by 10 points or more.  The OVER is 7-0 in Rams last seven road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  These four trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jets/Seahawks OVER 41.5

Mike White makes his much anticipated return to the lineup for the New York Jets this week.  This offense has been much more efficient with White under center than Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco.  This total against the Seahawks is way too low given that White is playing and the forecast.  It's expected to be 45 degrees with 2 MPH winds and only a 4% chance of precipitation in Seattle Sunday afternoon.

The Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a solid offense and a terrible defense.  The Seahawks rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game, 13th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play.  This Seattle offense is expected to get Tyler Lockett back from injury this week, and RB Kenneth Walker should be good to go as well.

White put up 31 points and 466 yards against the Bears and 22 points and 486 total yards against the Vikings in his two healthy starts this week.  He will have a big game against this Seattle defense as well.  The Seahawks rank 29th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game, 29th in total defense at 373.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.7 yards per play allowed.  

No question the Jets have a good defense, but that is being factored into this total too much as this is one of the lowest totals this week.  The Jaguars found plenty of success moving the football against them on the road last week racking up 365 total yards, but they had to settle for four field goals.  The Lions had 359 yards against them the previous week and the Seahawks should find similar success as well.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Falcons OVER 41

The Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons have nothing to play for this week.  As a result, this is going to be a care-free game with plenty of offense and little defense being played.  It will also be played inside the dome in Atlanta, and this is a very low total for a dome game.

The Cardinals are expected to get back Colt McCoy at quarterback this week.  He is one of the best backup QB's in the NFL.  He will be able to move the football and score points on an Atlanta defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring at 23.3 points per game, 28th in total defense at 373.0 yards per game and 29th at 5.8 yards per play.

Desmond Ridder will be making his third start of the season for the Falcons.  We saw what Baker Mayfield did last week in his third start for the Rams.  I think Ridder will have easily his best game yet as this is a big step down in class of opponent defense after facing two very good stop units in the Saints and Ravens in his first two starts.  Now Ridder will be up against an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in scoring defense at 26.1 points per game and 22nd in total defense at 354.8 yards per game.

The OVER is 7-2 in Cardinals last nine games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last six games vs. NFC opponents.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 67, 54, 57 and 47 points.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Atlanta.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Saints/Eagles OVER 44

The Philadelphia Eagles are a dead nuts OVER team right now with or without Jalen Hurts.  He's questionable to return this week, but Gardner Minshew once again showed he's probably the best backup QB in the league by nearly upsetting the Cowboys in a 34-40 road loss last week.  I'm good with the OVER In this game with Minshew or Hurts.

The Eagles and their opponents have combined for 45 or more points in five consecutive games and eight of their last nine games overall.  The OVER is 7-2 in those nine games.  They will get their points, and I expect the Saints to chip in enough to push this total OVER the number.

This total has been set too low due to the Saints going under the total in four consecutive games.  But they played in terrible conditions last week in Cleveland, and they have faced two elite defenses in the 49ers and Bucs during this stretch as well.  The Eagles have some injuries in their secondary that can be exploited as we saw by the Cowboys last week.  They have also allowed at least 99 rushing yards in 10 of their last 11 games overall and the Saints are a good rushing team.  I have the feeling they are going to have to get more pass-happy this week to try and keep up with Philadelphia.

After some terrible weather last weekend, the weather looks good almost everywhere this week, including in Philadelphia.  The forecast is calling for 56 degrees and 11 MPH winds with only a 7% chance of precipitation at kickoff on Sunday as of this writing on Friday.  That sounds like perfect conditions for a shootout to me for an outdoor game.

The Saints and Eagles have combined for at least 45 points in five of their last six meetings.  The OVER is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 home games.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -3

The Los Angeles Chargers are coming up clutch when these games matter the most here down the stretch.  They have won two consecutive games against fellow playoff contenders in Miami and Tennessee and were more dominant than the final scores showed in both of those games.  They outgained the Dolphins by 213 yards in a 23-17 victory and outgained the Titans by 81 yards in a 17-14 victory.

The headlines are that Justin Herbert finally has his to star receivers healthy in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, which is huge and true, but the real substance of this team is what the defense has done the last two weeks.  They held Miami's high-octane attack to just 17 points and 219 total yards, and they held Derrick Henry and Tennessee's rushing attack in check while limiting them to 14 points and 284 total yards.  Now they finally have a defense to go with one of the most talented offenses in the league.

While the Chargers have a lot to play for tied for 6th in the AFC with the Dolphins and only one game ahead of the Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts have nothing to play for at this point.  They just lost RB Jonathan Taylor to a season-ending injury and he means everything to their offense.  They have decided to go with Nick Foles over Matt Ryan for this game, and it won't make any difference as the offensive line is terrible, and there are no proven weapons on this offense now without Taylor.

The Colts have to be gutted after blowing the largest lead in NFL history, losing 36-39 (OT) to the Vikings last week after opening with a 33-0 lead on the heels of two defensive touchdowns.  Taylor went out after getting a big lead and the offense couldn't sustain drives without him.  The defense has to be gassed after spending basically the entire second half on the field.  They gave up 518 total yards to the Vikings in defeat.  I don't trust their mental state right now as Jeff Saturday is a dead man walking, and these players know it.

I grabbed a good early number on the Chargers -3 Monday knowing this line would move in their favor, once again beating another line move.  I obviously don't like it as much at anything more than -3.  I would downgrade it to a 20* at -3.5 to -4.5, so adjust your best accordingly.  This is why it's important to get a long-term subscription instead of buying plays on the day of games so you can get the best numbers, too.

Plays against any team (Indianapolis) - after going over the total by 35 points or more total in their last three games, a bad team winning 25-40% of their games on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Indianapolis.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Dolphins OVER 46.5

I locked in this great number on Monday before the Packers played as it was available at pretty much every book.  It reopened higher, so we got a great number here.  I would downgrade it to a 15* play at anything above 49 at this point, but I'm glad myself and my long-term clients got this great number early.  It's just another reason you should sign up long-term to get the best numbers, too, rather than bet on the day of the game.  I consistently beat the line moves, which puts us at a big advantage on the books.

But let's get into the breakdown of this game.  With some terrible weather forecast across the country, this won't be one of them.  Temperatures will be in the 50's in Miami Sunday with light winds and a small chance of precipitation.  It will be balmy compared to the rest of the country and it will help us cash in this OVER ticket.

Maimi is a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have scored 29 or more points in five of their last seven games overall.  But they have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game and 409.7 yards per game in their last three games.  They are decimated by injuries on defense, especially in the secondary.  If they don't get pressure teams consistently find big plays against them right now.

The Packers are in the best shape on offense they have been all season.  Aaron Rodgers has his top five receivers and his top two running backs all healthy right now.  He is no longer wearing a wrap on his thumb and that's a non-issue at this point.  They basically just scored 31 points on the Rams as they kneeled it at the 1-yard line to finish the game after scoring 28 points against the Bears and 33 points against the Eagles in their previous two games.

We've seen this Green Bay defense shredded against the best offenses this season, and Miami classifies as one of the best offenses.  The Packers allowed 27 points to the Bills, 28 to the Cowboys, 27 to the Titans and 40 to the Eagles in recent weeks.  Miami should be able to do whatever it wants against this Green Bay defense both on the ground and through the air.

The OVER is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games in the second half of the season vs. a team with a winning record.  Miami is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams averaging at least 5.65 yards per play.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Raiders/Steelers AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -2

The Pittsburgh Steelers were already plan on honoring Franco Harris on the 50th anniversary of the "Immaculate Reception" this weekend.  This game will mean even more to players, coaches and fans alike now that Harris passed away earlier this week.  This is going to be a surreal atmosphere for a Pittsburgh game and an even bigger home-field advantage than normal.

We're backing a Steelers team playing some very good football coming into this one.  They have won three of their last four games overall while outgaining all four opponents with their lone loss coming when they committed three turnovers in the red zone in a 2-point loss to the Ravens.  They outgained the Panthers by 116 yards last week in a 24-16 road victory.

Forecasts are calling for single-digit temperatures and 15 MPH winds in Pittsburgh Sunday.  I'll gladly back the blue collar team used to these conditions over the dome team in the Las Vegas Raiders who are used to warm weather.  Derek Carr is 0-5 with 5 interceptions and has never thrown for more than 220 yards in games with a temperature of less than 37 degrees in his career. I'll also back the best unit on the field, which is this Pittsburgh defense that is allowing only 16.3 points per game and 278.5 yards per game over its last four games.  This great run defensively has coincided with the return of TJ Watt, who means everything to this team.

The Raiders are getting too much respect for a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run against a very easy schedule of the Broncos, Seahawks, Chargers, Rams and Patriots.  They got a miracle last week against the Patriots to avoid blowing yet another double-digit lead with one of the dumbest plays you will ever see on the final play of the game.  Their luck runs out this week against a motivated Steelers team that simply will want it more.

The Raiders are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road this season.  Las Vegas is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. AFC North opponents.  The Raiders are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Las Vegas is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  I trust Pittsburgh a lot more in this spot laying a short number at home.  Take the Steelers Saturday.

20* Eagles/Cowboys NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 46

I cashed in the Cowboys/Jaguars OVER last week in a game that saw 74 combined points, and I'm back on the OVER in a Cowboys game this week.  They are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in seven consecutive games now while also gaining at least 385 yards in all seven games.  Their defense has slipped down the stretch, allowing at least 19 points in six of their last seven games overall.

This total has been bet down from 50.5 to 46 now with the news that the Eagles will be without Jalen Hurts.  But Gardner Minshew is arguably the best backup quarterback in the NFL and the Eagles will still hang a big number with him under center.  The game plan will change to be more pass-happy, but that also benefits the OVER.

The Eagles are averaging 37 points per game in their last four games overall and have ample weapons to make Minshew's job much easier both in the passing game and the running game.  Dallas Goedert could make his return at tight end this week, too.  Minshew will be up against a banged up Dallas secondary that will be missing several key players, plus LB Vander Esch is out with a shoulder injury suffered last week against the Jaguars.  

The Eagles also have key injuries on the defensive line and in the secondary, most notably DE Robert Quinn who they traded for out with a knee injury.  So all the key playmakers for both teams are healthy right now with the exception of Hurts.  And most of the notable injuries are all on defense for both teams.

I don't love playing overs in division games, but this one is different.  Cooper Rush was the quarterback of the Cowboys in that first meeting, while Hurts was the quarterback for the Eagles.  These are two completely different offenses with Dak Prescott and Minshew running the show, and that element of surprise on a short week will favor the offenses over the defenses.  Plus, in a weekend filled with terrible weather everywhere, this game will be played in a dome in perfect scoring conditions.

I also don't think there will be as much intensity for this division rivalry as there would have been if it meant more.  The Eagles basically have the NFC East locked up only needing one more win in their final three games, while the Cowboys are basically locked into the 4th seed in the NFC.  Dallas beat Philadelphia 51-26 at home last season for 77 combined points.  Three of the last four meetings have seen 54 or more combined points with the lone exception being that Cooper Rush game.  

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The OVER is 6-1 in Cowboys last seven games overall.  The OVER is 6-2 in Eagles last eight games overall.  Dallas is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in its previous game.  They just gave up 503 yards and 7.3 yards per play against the Jaguars last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NFL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

I have personally cashed in the 49ers three times during their current 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS run.  I won with them over Tampa Bay two weeks ago and last week over Seattle.  I have had a good beat on this team.  But now it's time to 'sell high' on the 49ers as I think this is a terrible spot for them, and you're starting to pay a tax to back them this week.

The 49ers just clinched the NFC West with their 21-13 win at Seattle last week.  Now they are in a letdown spot as there's not much for them to play for the rest of the way other than playoff seeding.  I could see them losing this game outright as a result, let alone covering this 7-point spread.  Look for Kyle Shanahan to manage injured players the rest of the way and to not force them into action, meaning a lot of backups will be on the field for them.

While the 49ers don't need this game, the Washington Commanders need this game like blood after losing to the New York Giants last week.  They are now just 0.5 games ahead of both teh Seahawks and Lions for the 7th and final playoff spot in the NFC.  I know I'm going to get a max motivated Commanders team this week, and that should be enough to cover this spread.

The Commanders are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a lot more healthy than the 49ers.  They should get CB St.-Juste back this week as well as DE Chase Young, who they've been waiting to get back all season.  The Commanders will still be fresh after having a bye week prior to that Giants game as well, which negates the 49ers' rest advantage after playing last Thursday.

Oddsmakers are expecting a defensive battle here with a 37.5-point total, so points are at a premium and worth more.  Getting 7 points with the Commanders is too much this week, and we are only getting them because the refs beat them and they beat themselves last week against the Giants.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Commanders now.  

It's a Washington team that is 6-2-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Commanders have outgained six of their last eight opponents while only getting outgained by 18 and 38 yards in the other two contests.  In fact, the Commanders haven't lost by more than one score in any of their last 10 games, so they just have a knack of playing in close games.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing them pertaining to this 7-point spread.  Roll with the Commanders Saturday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns -3

Deshaun Watson led the Cleveland Browns to a 13-3 home victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week.  It was a big weight lifted off his shoulders, and certainly a much friendlier atmosphere playing at home.  Well, he and the Browns will be back home this week where they have been at their best all season, going 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game.

Cleveland should be more than a 3-point home favorite over New Orleans, which has been terrible on the road this season.  The Saints are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road this season and losing by 6.0 points per game on average.  This won't be just another road game for them, either.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 12 degrees and 30 MPH winds with a 50% chance of precipitation.  I'll gladly back the Browns, who are used to these conditions, over the dome team in the Saints that aren't build for these conditions.

Due to the forecast, this game will be played on the ground, and I trust Cleveland's ground game over that of New Orleans.  Nick Chubb is a go this week and leads a Cleveland rushing attack that ranks 5th in the NFL at 149.0 rushing yards per game and 11th at 4.7 yards per carry.  Compare that to New Orleans, which ranks just 21st in rushing offense at 111.3 yards per game and 18th at 4.3 yards per carry.  Both teams are pretty much dead even against the run, too.

The injury news is good for the Browns with DE Garrett, CB Ward, TE Njoku, WR Cooper and RB Chubb all listed as probable.  The injury news for the Saints is not so good with WR Olave and WR Landry both out for this one.  Andy Dalton will be without his two favorite targets.  It will be a factor when the Browns take an early lead and the Saints have to try and throw to get back in the game.

The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  New Orleans is 0-6 ATS after playing a home game this season.  New Orleans is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards per carry in the second half of the season.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Cleveland.  Take the Browns Saturday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Seattle Seahawks this week.  They have gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall despite being favored in three of those games and not being more than a 3-point underdog once.  They go from being overvalued to undervalued now as 10-point dogs.  They haven't been double-digit dogs all season until now.

The spot is a good one with the Seahawks coming in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while the Chiefs are coming off an overtime game against the Houston Texans and off three consecutive road games overall.  I'm sure the Chiefs have a lot to deal with back at home with it being Christmas after being on the road the last three weeks, so they won't be fully focused for this one.

That's nothing new for the Chiefs, who are having a terrible time putting teams away.  They lost by 3 at Cincinnati, only beat the Broncos by 6 and only beat the Texans by 6 in OT after being 14-point favorites.  The Seahawks will never be out of this game because the Chiefs cannot stop anyone, allowing 24 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

After playing four tough defenses in their last five games in the Bucs, Rams, Panthers and 49ers, the Seahawks should get right offensively here.  They have still scored 24 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.  Kenneth Walker should have a big game on the ground as he has extra time to heal his ankle after returning last week.  Geno Smith will dice up this Kansas City secondary.

No question the Chiefs are going to get their points, but they aren't looking to run up the score.  They just want to get in and get out with a win, which is what they have been doing for the majority of the season.  The Chiefs have only three wins all season by more than 10 points.

Kansas City is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a SU win.  Pete Carroll is 19-4 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.  Andy Reid is 0-8 ATS in home games following three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as a head coach having never covered in this situation.  Bet the Seahawks Saturday.

15* Jaguars/Jets AFC ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +2

We have two teams headed in opposite directions and two quarterbacks headed in opposite direction in this matchup Thursday night.  I'll side with the team playing with confidence and with the better quarterback over the team that is slumping and doesn't believe in its quarterback.

Don't look now but the Jaguars have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Ravens, Titans and Cowboys to pull within one game of first place of the Titans in the AFC South.  They host the Titans in Week 18, so they are very much alive to win this division now and believing they can.

A lot of that belief comes from the performance of the offense and Lawrence.  He has a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last six games and is completing 66% of his passes for 3,520 yards with 24 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on the season.  He is also a dual-threat with 239 rushing yards and 4.9 per carry with four scores.  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons at receiver for him on the outside, and they have a steady rushing attack with Travis Etienne, who has rushed for 917 yards and 5.0 per carry on the season.

Zach Wilson is completing just 54.9% of his passes for 1,596 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for 101 yards and 3.7 per carry with one score.  He is only playing right now because Mike White is hurt, and it's a big downgrade for them at quarterback.  They had built up some momentum with White but that's gone now.

The Jets do have the better defense, but I don't think that's enough to make up for the advantage the Jaguars have on offense.  The weather will be bad for this game with a 100% chance of precipitation and 20 MPH winds.  So the team that runs the ball better and takes care of the football better is likely going to win, and I trust Lawrence over Wilson as far as turnovers go.

The Jets haven't been able to run the ball very well since they lost Breece Hall at running back.  In their last five games, the Jets were held to 59 yards on 23 carries by the Patriots, 76 yards on 22 carries by the Bills and 50 yards on 22 carries by the Lions.  They only had success against the terrible Bears and Vikings defenses.  The Jaguars just rushed for 192 yards on the Cowboys last week.  They rank 6th in the NFL at 4.9 yards per carry while the Jets rank 21st at 4.3 yards per carry.  The Jets are only slightly better against the run defensively allowing 4.1 per carry compared to 4.2 per carry for Jacksonville.

The Jets have lost three straight and four of their last five games overall with their lone win coming against the Bears who were without Justin Fields.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Jaguars Thursday.

20* Rams/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Green Bay -7

The Green Bay Packers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 28-19 win over the Bears.  They have since had a bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season.  Aaron Rodgers was practicing without a wrap on his thumb for the first time since he injured it this week.  I love the spot for the Packers on Monday Night Football.

Rodgers has his full compliment of weapons now with Lazard, Watson, Tonyan, Cobb, Jones and Doubs all healthy.  Watson has really emerged as a playmaker with eight touchdowns in his last four games.  They scored 33 points on the Eagles the week prior to scoring 28 against the Bears.

The Packers should have their way on offense against a Rams defense that is expected to be withotu Aaron Donald again.  The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.  But the bigger concern is on the other side of the football for Los Angeles.

The Rams are without their three best players on offense in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Allan Robinson.  They were struggling even with these guys, and it has obviously been even worse without them.  The Rams rank 29th in scoring offense at 16.8 points per game, 31st in total offense at 283.0 yards per game and 32nd at 4.7 yards per play.  They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL which is perhaps the biggest issue for them.

No, Baker Mayfield is not the answer.  He pulled off a miracle erasing a 16-3 deficit in the final four minutes to beat the Raiders 17-16 last week.  But that works in our favor here because this line is now lower than it should be after the Rams pulled off the upset.  Let's just look at it from a line value perspective.  

The Rams were 6.5-point home dogs to the Raiders, and now are only 7-point road dogs to the Packers.  I think the Packers and Raiders are pretty much equal teams, so when adjusting for home-field advantage this line should be closer to Packers -10.  Then throw in the fact that it's a warm weather team in the Rams going outdoors to play in freezing temps at Lambeau Field with the forecast calling for low 20's, and the Packers should definitely be more than 7-point favorites.  They have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL late in the season.

The Packers simply own the Rams, going 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Packers winning by 8 points or more in all seven victories.  They won by 8, 14, 14 and 21 points in their last four home meetings with the Rams.  Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. NFC opponents.  Bet the Packers Monday.

20* Giants/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -4.5

I think the Washington Commanders are in the best spot of any team all season this week.  They played the Giants two weeks ago, had a bye last week, and now get to face the Giants again.  They are rested and ready to go, plus they have been game planning for the Giants for three weeks now.  This one has blowout written all over it given the favorable spot for them.

These teams are both 7-5-1 but one is legit and one is a fraud, and both are going in opposite directions.  The Commanders are 6-1-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Giants are 0-3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a 22-48 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Giants are as banged up as any team in the NFL right now.  They are missing playmakers at receiver, Saquon Barkley isn't right, and they have cluster injuries on defense.  That defense has been gashed for 31.8 points per game and 400.8 yards per game in their last four games.  The rush defense has really been gashed for an average of 186.8 rushing yards per game allowed in the last four.

Washington has rushed for at least 128 yards in seven of its last eight games overall and will find plenty of success against the Giants on the ground to take pressure off of Taylor Heineke.  They rushed for 165 yards and managed 411 total yards in that first meeting with the Giants two weeks ago.  They outgained the Giants by 95 yards in that game and deserved better than a tie.

The favorable spot for Washington should have them more than 4.5-point favorites here.  They were 2.5-point road favorites in that first meeting, and are now 4.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  That's only a 2-point adjustment for flipping home fields.  It's worth more than 2, and it's certainly worth more than 2 given the favorable spot for the Commanders off the bye and with the Giants gassed and having cluster injuries everywhere.

The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine December games.  Washington is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Ron Rivera is 16-5 ATS in home games after winning four or five of his last six games as a head coach.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Commanders Sunday night.

15* Titans/Chargers AFC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5

This Los Angeles Chargers offense is so much more potent when both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are on the field at the same time.  Williams returned last week to join Allen as the Chargers beat the Dolphins 23-17 in what was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.

The Chargers racked up 432 total yards and held the Dolphins to 219 total yards, outgaining them by 213 yards.  Justin Herbert went 39-of-51 passing for 367 yards in the win.  Williams had 6 receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown while Allen had 12 receptions for 92 yards.  Austin Ekeler also had 104 scrimmage yards and a score.  This is one of the best offenses in the NFL with Herbert and this trio of weapons.

Now the Chargers go up against a Tennessee Titans defense that is one of the most banged up in the NFL right now.  They just allowed 36 points and 428 total yards to the Jaguars last week after giving up 35 points and 453 total yards to the Eagles the previous week.  I just don't know how the Titans are going to get any stops in this game.

On the other side of the football, the Titans are also one of the worst units in the league.  They rank 26th in scoring offense at 18.5 points per game, 29th in total offense at 296.9 yards per game and 22nd at 5.2 yards per play.  The Titans are the most fraudulent team with a winning record in the NFL if it's not the Giants.  They are getting outgained by 68.1 yards per game on the season.  But that winning 7-6 record has them overvalued in recent weeks, including this week as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Chargers.

Los Angeles has a chance of getting several key players back on defense this week, while Tennessee remains banged up everywhere, including at receiver, along the offensive line and at all three levels on defense.  Mike Vraebel has done a tremendous job of getting everything he could out of this team the last couple seasons, but they are finally starting to break due to all these injuries.  The Titans still have a two-game lead in the AFC South so they can afford a loss, while the Chargers can only make the playoffs through the wild card.  So they will be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency this week as well.

The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Chargers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Titans.  Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Los Angeles.  Los Angeles is 33-8 ATS in its last 41 games vs. AFC South opponents.  The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after two straight games attempting 40 or more passes.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

20* Bengals/Bucs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati -3.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The books haven't been able to catch up to how good this team really is.  Joe Burrow is legitimately a Top 5 quarterback in this league if not the best, and he has some of the best weapons in the NFL.  Plus, the Bengals have one of the most underrated defenses in the league as well.

Cincinnati ranks 7th in scoring offense at 25.8 points per game, 5th in total offense at 371.7 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play.  The Bengals rank 11th in scoring defense at 20.4 points per game, 14th in total defense at 331.1 yards per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play.

Tampa Bay has a good defense, but they just gave up 35 points to San Francisco and third-string QB Brock Purdy last week.  They are a tired defense missing several key players who were playing on a short week after needing a 13-point comeback in the final few minutes of the 4th quarter to beat the Saints on Monday Night Football.  They wore down against the 49ers, and now after traveling clear out West they have to travel back home this week and face a Bengals offense that will test them at ever level.

But this is a fade of Tampa Bays' offense more than anything.  The Bucs rank 28th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game and 26th at 5.0 yards per play.  Tom Brady has no time to throw because of a depleted offensive line that has been terrible all season.  The Bucs cannot run the ball to take pressure off Brady as they rank dead last (32nd) in rushing at 72.9 yards per game and 32nd at 3.3 yards per carry.

While the Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, the Bucs are just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The books have been undervaluing the Bengals all season and overvaluing the Bucs, and that's the case again this week with Cincinnati as just a short road favorite.  The Bengals will remain motivated as they are tied with the Ravens for 1st place in the AFC North and only one game back of the Bills and Chiefs for the No. 1 seed.  The Bucs can lose this game and still control their own destiny in the putrid NFC South, so winning this game isn't as important for them as it is for the Bengals.  Take the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Carolina Panthers -2

Both the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 5-8 this season.  But since the Carolina Panthers play in the weak NFC South, they are just one game out of first place with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  In fact, they control their own destiny to win the division because they already beat the Bucs and play them again.

The Steelers just had their playoff hopes crushed last week with a devastating 14-16 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens and backup QB's Huntley and Brown.  They lost Kenny Pickett to a concussion early in that game, and Mitch Trubisky came in and moved the ball down the field, but threw three interceptions in the red zone that cost them the game.  I don't think there's much difference between Trubisky or Pickett, so I'm not concerned who starts this week.  I think the spot is terrible for the Steelers as that loss to the hated Ravens is the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

I like the way the Panthers are trending and the fact that they have a lot more to play for this week.  These players love Steve Wilks and are playing hard for him.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three outright wins as underdogs.  They are 3-0 at home during this stretch with three blowout wins over the Bucs by 18, the Falcons by 10 and the Broncos by 13.

The Panthers should still be fresh this week because they had a bye two weeks ago prior to going into Seattle and winning 30-24 last week.  The offense has gotten a spark as Sam Darnold is 2-0 as a starter and leading the Panthers to 26.5 points per game in the two wins.  And this is one of the better defenses in the league as the Panthers rank 13th in scoring defense at 22.3 points per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  Pittsburgh allows 5.7 yards per play for comparison.

The Steelers have been gashed on the ground in two consecutive games giving up 146 rushing yards to the Falcons and 215 rushing yards to the Ravens.  That's bad news for them going up against this Carolina rushing attack that has produced 169 or more rushing yards in five of its last seven games overall.  I think the Panthers can control this game by moving the ball on the ground, and Sam Darnold just needs to keep managing the game and making timely play-action completions as he has in his first two starts.   Pittsburgh is scoring just 15.6 points per game on the road this season.

The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 6 points or fewer.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bears OVER 48.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are humming on offense right now scoring 41.0 points per game in their last three games overall.  They are now the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL.  They can name their number against what is the worst defense in the NFL currently in the Chicago Bears.

The Bears have allowed 27 or more points in six consecutive games and an average of 33.5 points per game during this stretch.  But this Chicago offense has really taken off with Justin Fields.  In the last six games started by Fields, the Bears are averaging 27.8 points per game. He is clearly recovered from his shoulder injury after leading the Bears to 409 total yards against the Packers in his return from injury prior to the bye last week.

I expect the Eagles to get out to a lead in this game and to continue to score at will similarly to what they did against the Giants last week when they kept pouring it on with 48 points.  And Fields and the Bears will be forced to go hurry up to try and keep up with the Eagles.  The one weakness of the Eagles is their running defense as they have allowed 99 or more rushing yards in eight of their last nine games.  They rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards per carry.  The strength of the Bears is their rushing offense that ranks 1st in the NFL at 189.2 rushing yards per game.

The forecast looks good for a shootout for this time of year in Chicago with 12 MPH winds and 0% chance of precipitation.  The OVER is 7-1 in Eagles last eight games overall.  The OVER is 7-0 in Eagles last seven games following a win.  The OVER is 39-16 in Eagles last 55 December games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Bears last seven games overall.  The OVER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS loss.  These are both dead nuts OVER teams right now.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Lions/Jets Non-Conference ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have combined for 49 or more points in five consecutive games and two of those games were played outdoors at New York and at Chicago.  They have averaged 32.2 points per game in their last five games and 54.8 combined points per game in their last five as well, so this is a very low total of 44 for a game involving the Lions.

The New York Jets have come to life on offense with Mike White at quarterback.  They put up 31 points and 466 total yards against the Bears in White's first start.  They put up 486 total yards in the Vikings in his second start.  And last week they had 309 total yards against a very good Bills defense in terrible weather in Buffalo with heavy winds.

Well, the weather is expected to be very good for a game in New York in December.  Forecasts are calling for 38 degrees, only 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  That's pretty great weather outdoors for a shootout for this time of year.

The Jets could set a couple offensive linemen back this week and Cory Davis is questionable.  They may be without some key players on defense, most notably DL Quinnen Williams who is questionable with a calf injury.  And while the Lions are playing better defensively of late, they still rank 31st in scoring defense at 26.7 points per game, 31st in total defense at 403.2 yards per game and 32nd at 6.2 yards per play.

The OVER is 9-1 in Lions last 10 road games following four or more consecutive ATS wins.  The OVER is 8-1 in Lions last nine games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 9-2 in Jets last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game.  The OVER is 6-1 in Jets last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cowboys/Jaguars OVER 47.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They combined for 55 points with the Ravens, 54 with the Lions and 58 with the Titans in their last three games.  It should be more of the same against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday with the forecast perfect for a shootout in Jacksonville with temps in the 50's and less than 10 MPH winds.

Trevor Lawrence is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the league this season under the guidance of Doug Pederson.  He is completing 66.2% of his passes with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 218 yards and four scores.  Travis Etienne is averaging 5.0 YPC, and Lawrence is loaded with weapons in Kirk, Jones, Engram and Jones Jr. on the outside.

The Dallas Cowboys are humming on offense right now as well.  They have scored 28 or more points in six consecutive games and are averaging 37.7 points per game in their last six games.  They will get their points against a Jacksonville defense that has really slipped in allowing at least 20 points in eight consecutive games and an average of 26.8 points per game during this stretch.  Dallas has allowed at least 19 points in five of its last six games despite a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.

The OVER is 5-1 in Cowboys last six games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games following a win.  The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four December games.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Browns AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland -3

The Cleveland Browns have been on the road four of the last five weeks.  In their lone home game, they beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in overtime.  Now Deshaun Watson will be playing his first home game for the Browns after playing the last two on the road.  This will be a much more comforting atmosphere for Watson, and I expect his best game as a Brown yet.

But this play is as much of a fade of the Ravens as it is a play on the Browns.  They were very lucky to beat the Steelers 16-14 last week as the Steelers lost Kenny Pickett early, and Mitch Trubisky threw three interceptions in the red zone.  The Ravens pulled off a minor miracle to win that game after only beating the Broncos 10-9 at home the previous week.  Their luck runs out this week.

The Ravens will still be without Lamar Jackson, and quality backup Tyler Huntley suffered a concussion against the Steelers and is highly questionable to play this week, especially since it's a short week with this game being played on Saturday.  Third stringer Anthony Brown is a big downgrade from Huntley, and this line will be much more than Cleveland -3 if Brown starts.

The numbers actually show the Browns are the better team, and that's even with Jackson up to this point.  The Browns rank 6th in total offense at 368.8 yards per game while the Ravens are 14th at 347.0 yards per game.  The Ravens are 12th in total defense at 330.4 yards per game while the Browns are 17th at 343.8 yards per game.  So the Ravens are only outgaining opponents by 16.6 yards per game while the Browns are outgaining foes by 25 yards per game.

Plays against any team (Baltimore) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, when playing on Saturday are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites (Cleveland) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-20 (71%) ATS since 1983.  Cleveland is favored for good reason this week, and it should be an even bigger favorite.  Bet the Browns Saturday.

20* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco -3

The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with five wins by 13 points or more.  Even in the game they failed to win by double-digits they should have as they outgained the Chargers by 149 yards in a 22-16 victory as 8.5-point favorites.  They should be bigger than 3-point favorites over the Seahawks Thursday.

I know this will be Brock Purdy's first road game, but they have been better with him under center.  They beat the Dolphins 33-17 as he took over for Jimmy G early in that game.  Then they beat the Bucs 35-7.  I know Purdy had some plays go his ways due to penalties, but the guy is cool under pressure, offers mobility that Jimmy G didn't have, and the players absolutely love him.

Purdy just needs to be a game manager in this one because the 49ers are going to run wild on this Seattle defense.  The 49ers have rushed for at least 101 yards in six of their last seven games overall.  The Seahawks have allowed 192 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  It's a big reason they are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall because they cannot stop anyone.  They needed a last-minute TD to beat the Rams 27-23 in their lone win, and that was a Rams team missing four of their top players in Stafford, Kupp, Donald and Robinson.

This Seattle offense is solid, but they are no match for this San Francisco defense.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 15.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 286.8 yards per game and 3rd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.  The 49ers have now allowed 17 or fewer points in six consecutive games and an average of just 10.7 points per game during this stretch.

The Seahawks haven't been able to run the ball of late averaging just 60 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  They have cluster injuries at the RB position, and the offensive line has been dreadful.  Geno Smith will be under duress all game, and the 49ers are a dangerous defense when they can pin their ears back.

San Francisco won the first meeting 27-7 and held the Seahawks to just 216 total yards and 14 first downs.  They rushed for 189 yards in that first meeting.  It should be rinse and repeat here as the 49ers have the big edge at the line of scrimmage.  Purdy just has to manage the game and not turn the ball over and the 49ers run away with this one again.

Kyle Shanahan is a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games as the coach of San Francisco.  Shanahan is 15-3 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games as the coach of the 49ers.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* Patriots/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  QB Kyler Murray is back and he has his top two receivers healthy in DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown, plus Rondale Moore should return following a bye this week.  But the Cardinals have a very leaky defense that has allowed 29.8 points per game in their last six games.

The Patriots have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season.  But they have struggled when they have faced some legit offenses.  They allowed 24 points to the Bills, 33 points to the Vikings, 33 points to the Bears, 27 points to the Packers and 37 points to the Ravens.  The Cardinals will hang a big number on their slow defense, too.

But the Patriots should get their points against this suspect Arizona defense.  They have done well on offense against the worst defenses in the NFL.  They scored 26 points against the Vikings, 38 against the Browns, 29 against the Lions, 24 against the Packers and 26 against the Ravens.  I see both teams getting to at least 24 points in this one, and we only need a 24-21 final to cash this ticket.

The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last six games overall with combined scores of 44 or more points in all six and 48 or more points in five of them.  Arizona is 6-0 OVER in its last six home games after losing three of its last four games coming in.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Dolphins/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51.5

The Miami Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in four of their last five games.  The only team that held them in check was the 49ers, and they probably have the best defense in the NFL.  I think they hang another big number here against this depleted Chargers defense.

The Chargers have allowed at least 22 points in nine of their last 11 games overall.  The only exceptions were against poor Denver and Atlanta offenses.  There's a chance the Chargers get back Mike Williams and a couple offensive linemen this week, which would make them even more potent offensively.  They have scored at least 20 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  The Chargers rank 30th in scoring defense while the Dolphins rank 25th.

Miami just tends to get in shootouts on the road this season.  The Dolphins are scoring 26.2 points per game and allowing 32.8 points per game on the road this season.  That's an average of 59 combined points per game, which is 7.5 points more than this 51.5-point total.  The Chargers are allowing 28.0 points per game at home this season.

The OVER is 4-0 in Dolphins last four road games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Chargers last nine home games.  The OVER is 10-2 in Chargers last 12 games following a loss.  The OVER is 9-1 in Chargers last 10 games following a road loss.  The OVER is 8-1 in Dolphins last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday night.

20* Bucs/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -3.5

I recommend buying the 49ers to -3 (-125) or better.  We'll back a 49ers team playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four wins by 13 points or more.  That includes their impressive 33-17 win over the Miami Dolphins last week.

The 49ers have the Seahawks on their heels for the NFC West lead, so they don't be having a letdown this week.  They get a week of practice with Brock Purdy running the offense and preparing to be the starter, which will benefit him.  Purdy played well in his first significant action of the season, completing 25-of-37 passes for 210 yards with two touchdowns and one interception on a 4th down play jump ball.  Players love him, and with Jimmy G being no more than a game manager, Purdy actually has more upside.

But the key here is the 49ers are going to shut down the Bucs.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 15.8 points per game, 1st in total defense at 283.9 yards per game and 5th at 4.8 yards per play.  They have a tremendous defensive line and pass rush, and the Bucs have struggled against dominant defensive lines because they are missing so many starters on the offensive line, plus they just aren't very skilled in that department.  It's their biggest weakness.

It's the reason the Bucs are struggling so much on offense this season.  They rank 27th in scoring offense at 18.1 points per game, 17th in total offense at 340.0 yards per game and 25th at 5.0 yards per play.  They managed just 3 points against the Saints last week until their final two drives against the prevent to pull out a miracle victory.  The 49ers won't be playing prevent, and they will be getting after Brady for four quarters just as they did against Tua and the Dolphins last week, forcing them into four turnovers.  

The Dolphins are better than the Bucs, so the 49ers can't be 4.5-point home favorites over the Dolphins and only 3.5-point home favorites against the Bucs.  Especially with the Bucs now on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football and having to travel to the West Coast.  The value is on the 49ers this week due to Purdy being their quarterback, which is downgrading them in the betting markets more than it should be.

The Bucs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  San Francisco is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 vs. NFC opponents.  The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a non-conference game.  San Francisco is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games.  Kyle Shanahan is 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games as the coach of San Francisco.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6

The Cincinnati Bengals are in a massive letdown spot after their upset home win over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Joe Burrow is now 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes, but he's 0-5 against the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns have the Bengals' number, and that will continue Sunday.

Cleveland has saved its season with two consecutive impressive wins over the Bucs and Texans.  The defense is playing at a very high level right now holding the Bucs to 17 and the Texans to 14 points, while also forcing four turnovers against the Texans that set up several easy scores.

The headlines are that Deshaun Watson struggled, but that was expected in his first game action in two years.  He only attempted 22 passes and didn't have to do much because the defense controlled the game.  With a game under his belt now, he should be much more prepared to shine in Cincinnati.  Of course, he won't have to do too much in this one either because the Browns always run wild on the Bengals.

Indeed, the Browns are 5-0 SU in their last five meetings with the Bengals while averaging 32.8 points per game in those five wins.  They have averaged 165.4 rushing yards per game in the five wins as well.  Nick Chubb just has his way with this Cincinnati defense.  And Cleveland gets back star TE David Njoku, who caught the game-tying TD pass against the Bucs two weeks ago.

Burrow struggles against this Cleveland defense, too.  He's always under duress by Myles Garrett.  The Bengals have averaged just 15.0 points per game and 253 yards per game in their last three meetings with the Browns.  They lost 32-13 while getting outgained 440 to 229 by the Browns in their first meeting this season.

Plays against home teams (Cincinnati) - an excellent passing team averaging 7.3 YPA or more against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 YPA), after gaining 6.75 YPA or more in four consecutive games are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions PK

The Detroit Lions have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall to keep their playoff hopes alive.  They are very much alive and well in the NFC, and I look for them to carry that momentum into a home win over the Minnesota Vikings Sunday.

The Vikings are 10-2 and the Lions are 5-7, but when you look at the numbers there isn't that much difference between these teams.  Amazingly, the Vikings are 10-2 despite getting outgained by 53 yards per game.  They are the most fraudulent 10-2 team in the history of the NFL due to going 9-0 in one score games.  Their luck runs out this week against the Lions.

The Vikings are coming off another misleading 27-22 home win over the Jets last week.  They were outgained by 199 yards by the Jets and should have lost.  There was nothing misleading about the Lions' 40-14 win over the Jaguars last week.  They outgained Jacksonville by 171 yards.  Their only loss during this five-game stretch came by 3 as 10-point home underdogs to the Bills on a last-second field goal.

The Lions rank 6th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game, 7th in total offense at 369.1 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play.  When they have been healthy, they have been dominant on offense.  They have been healthy lately and have scored 31.8 points per game in their last four games.  They will shred a Minnesota defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 398.7 yards per game and 30th at 6.0 yards per play.  S Harrison Smith, CB Patrick Peterson and LB Eric Kendricks are all questionable for the Vikings this week.

Detroit wants revenge from a 24-28 loss at Minnesota in their first meeting this season.  The Lions outgained the Vikings 416 to 373 and should have won.  But they blew a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter and gave up 14 points in the final eight minutes, including the game-winner with 45 seconds left.  They haven't forgotten, and they will get their revenge this week.

The Lions are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in it last six games after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games.  The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. NFC North opponents.  The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Detroit.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

Let's just look at this from a line value perspective.  The Philadelphia Eagles were 6.5-point home favorites over the Packers two weeks ago and 4.5-point home favorites over the Titans last week.  The Giants beat both the Packers and Titans already this season.  And now the Eagles are 7-point road favorites at the Giants.  There's clearly value with the Giants catching 7 points at home.

The Giants are a tough team to get margin on.  They are 7-4-1 SU & 9-3 ATS this season with only two losses coming by more than one score.  And in those two losses by more than one score they actually outgained one team by 88 yards and were only outgained by 52 yards by the other, so they were misleading final scores.

The Giants rank 6th in the NFL in rushing this season at 149.7 yards per game.  Well, the one weakness of the Eagles is their run defense.  They have allowed at least 99 rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.  They rank 24th in the NFL in allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  The Giants can stay in this game by running the ball, extending drives and keeping the Eagles' offense off the field.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU but just 1-4 ATS on the road this season.  They aren't getting margin on teams on the highway.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  The Giants have been home underdogs to the Eagles in each of their two previous home meetings and won both outright.

Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Eagles this week in this divisional showdown on the road.  Take the Giants Sunday.

20* Raiders/Rams Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Las Vegas -5.5

The Las Vegas Raiders have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall to keep their playoff hopes alive.  There was nothing fluky about any of the three wins as they outgained their three opponents in the Chargers, Seahawks and Broncos by a combined 309 yards, or by an average of 103 yards per game.  Now they carry that momentum into their easiest opponent of the season Thursday night in the depleted Los Angeles Rams.

The only team worse than the Rams right now is the Houston Texans.  The Rams have lost six consecutive games with four of those losses by 7 points or more.  They were outgained in five of those six games and have been outgained by a total of 649 yards in those six games, or by an average of 108.2 yards per game.

Things are getting worse for the Rams before they get better.  They are without their three best players for this game in Stafford, Kupp and Donald.  They were so desperate that they even picked up Baker Mayfield off waivers after he wore out his welcome in Carolina.  There's a chance he even plays in this game, which would be a good thing for us if he does.

The Raiders got good news on the injury front with TE Darren Waller expected to make his return from a hamstring injury to give Derek Carr another weapon.  Of course, the Raiders have been thriving in the running game and with the Carr to Adams connection.  They have rushed for 182 yards per game in their last three games.  Adams has 79 receptions for 1,176 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.  

The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in five of their six losses during this six-game skid.  They have scored 20 or fewer points five times.  Whoever is under center will be playing behind an offensive line that ranks dead last in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency.  That's bad news going up against the tandem of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, who have really been getting after opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks.

This will pretty much be a home game for the Las Vegas Raiders.  The fair-weather Rams fans have given up on this team already.  Fans that live in the Los Angeles area, which there are millions of, will turn out to this game to support the Raiders.  It's also a short trip from Las Vegas to Los Angeles.  You'll hear fans cheering more for the Raiders than for the Rams in this one.

The Rams are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing 400 or more yards in two consecutive games.  Los Angeles is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games vs. AFC opponents.  Las Vegas is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  Bet the Raiders Thursday.

20* Saints/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5

This line has been bet down from an opener of -6.5 to -3.5 this week.  That's too big of a move, and now the value is with the Bucs laying the short number at home.  Keep in mind Tampa Bay was a 2.5-point road favorite at New Orleans in their first meeting this season, and is now only a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch.  That's a 1-point adjustment for home-field advantage when it should be anywhere from 4 to 6 points.

Both teams have been hit hard by injuries this season, but I still think the Bucs are better off in that department.  Brady has all of his top playmakers healthy and ready to go.  The defense still remains one of the best units in the league.  The offensive line is a problem, but they can scheme around it, and Brady is the best at getting the most out of an offensive line.

The Saints are broken on offense and cannot be trusted.  They have scored 13 or fewer points in three of their last four games and were just shut out by the 49ers last time out.  Now they must take on an elite Tampa Bay defense that ranks 6th in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game, 9th in total defense at 315.2 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Bucs are better on both sides of the football in this one.

New Orleans is a tired team right now as they have yet to have their bye week.  Tampa Bay just had its bye week prior to losing at Cleveland last week, so they should still be pretty fresh for this one.  The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five Monday games.

Plays on any team (Tampa Bay) - after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 79-38 (67.5%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bucs Monday.

15* Chiefs/Bengals AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53

This game has shootout written all over it between two of the best offenses in the NFL.  We are going to get the right conditions for a shootout in Cincinnati as well with the forecast calling for temps in the 40's, sunny skies, only 6 MPH wind and zero chance of precipitation.

Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play.  Cincinnati ranks 5th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and those numbers would be even better if they were healthy on offense all season.  Well, reinforcements are on the way this week as both WR Ja'Marr Chase and RB Joe Mixon return from injury in time for this huge showdown with Kansas City.

The return of those two cannot be overstated.  Chase has 47 receptions for 605 yards and six touchdowns in only seven games this season.  Mixon has 605 rushing yards and six touchdowns, while also catching 41 balls for 314 yards and two scores.  Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL already, and now he has his full allotment of weapons this week.

Last year Cincinnati won a 34-31 over Kansas City shootout at home while racking up 475 yards and allowing 414 yards.  Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 51 or more combined points, including 55 or more in three of those.  The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine road games.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in Bengals last six games overall.  Kansas City is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. teams that complete 64% of their passes or better.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Dolphins/49ers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins are are perfect 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa this season.  That includes upset wins over the Ravens and Bills.  And now I think they have a great shot of upsetting the San Francisco 49ers this week.

Miami got out to a 30-0 lead over the Houston Texans in the first half last week before calling off the dogs.  They rested their starters in the second half of that game and it was a misleading 30-15 final as a result.  But resting starters in the second half also keeps them fresher for this game against the 49ers.  They had a bye the previous week after beating the Browns 39-17 the week prior.  So they are as fresh as they can be right now.

The 49ers needed a last-minute stop to beat the Chargers by 6 three weeks ago, then went into Mexico City and beat up on a banged up Arizona team on Monday Night Football before a 13-0 win over the Saints last week.  Miraculously, they shut out the Saints despite New Orleans having the ball inside the San Francisco 25-yard line three times in the second half.  They missed a FG, fumbled and turned it over on downs.  That was closer than a 13-0 game as the 49ers only outgained the Saints by 57 yards.

No question the 49ers have an elite defense and one of the best stop units in the NFL.  But I just don't trust their offense to get margin.  This line should be San Francisco -3 at the most.  Jimmy G is still no more than a game manager.  And three key playmakers on offense are banged up and either out or questionable in Deebo Samuel, Christan McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell.

The 49ers have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season.  When they actually faced a top offense in the Chiefs they gave up 44 points in a 21-point loss.  I think they will struggle to handle all this speed the Dolphins offer.  Tyreke Hill already has 87 receptions, 1,233 yards and four touchdowns while Jaylen Waddle has 56 receptions, 963 yards and six scores.  And you know Miami RB's Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert will be extra motivated for this game after the 49ers traded both of them away.  They have combined for 1,220 rushing yards and seven scores and have been a fantastic two-headed monster.

The 49ers don't have much of a home-field advantage, and I think them being at home is being factored into this line too much.  The Dolphins are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win.  Again, Miami is 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua this season.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Los Angeles Rams are the worst team in the NFL in their current form.  And that's crazy to say coming from a team that just won the Super Bowl.  But the fact of the matter is they are without their three best players in Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp.  They are also without Allen Robinson and playing with three replacement-level receivers.  Their entire offensive line is replacement-level, too.

The Rams have gone 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 17 to the 49ers, by 3 to the Bucs, by 10 to the Cardinals, by 7 to the Saints and by 16 to the Chiefs.  They were held to 198 total yards against the Chiefs last week playing with third-string QB Bryce Perkins.  It won't get any better for their offense this week even against a suspect Seattle defense.  They can load up at the line of scrimmage because Perkins isn't going to be able to beat them through the air.  He is averaging just 2.8 passing yards per attempt, and the Rams rank dead last in pass blocking efficiency.

I love the spot for the Seahawks.  They are coming off two consecutive tough losses to the Bucs and Raiders.  They had a bye in between so they should still be fresh.  And the two losses in a row assure they won't have a letdown here against the Rams, which is what it would take for them to even be competitive.  Pete Carroll is an impressive 19-4 SU & 19-3-1 ATS following two consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.

The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games and they will struggle to slow down this impressive Seattle offense, especially without their best player in Aaron Donald clogging up the middle.  This will be the first game he has missed this season.  Seattle ranks 4th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, too.

The Seahawks are 41-20-4 ATS in their last 65 games following a loss.  The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and will have zero home-field advantage given the current state of this team, which fans are not excited about.  I think it will feel more like a home game for Seattle.  Carroll is 6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle with the Seahawks winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jets/Vikings OVER 44.5

The Minnesota Vikings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a very good offense that has recently put up 33 points against New England and 33 against Buffalo in two of their last three games.  But their defense has been terrible all season, especially of late.  They rank 31st in total defense at 390.7 yards per game allowed and 31st at 6.1 yards per play.  They have allowed 32 points per game in their last three games and just gave up 26 points and 409 yards to a bad Patriots offense last week.

The Jets were an UNDER team in the first half of the season, but the switch to Mike White at quarterback has rejuvenated this offense.  He went 22-of-29 for 308 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 win over Chicago last week.  He has his full compliment of weapons at receiver with Cory Davis back healthy to go with the underrated duo of Wilson and Moore.  White will light up this Minnesota defense, too.

The Jets have a great defense, but they have also benefited from a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They faced the Bears and a backup QB last week, the Patriots twice, the Broncos, the Packers, the Dolphins without Tua and the Steelers.  They did hold the Bills in check, but that's a division opponent they are familiar with.  Against the three other top offenses they faced they gave up 24 points to the Ravens, 30 to the Browns and 27 to the Bengals.  Minnesota can get 24-plus in this one pretty easily.

Minnesota's six home games this season have seen an average of 49.2 combined points per game.  The Vikings are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 home games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 games on fieldturf.  The OVER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 games after rushing for fewer than 90 yards last game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Lions OVER 50.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 8th in total offense at 362.9 yards per game and 8th at 5.8 yards per play.  The Lions are dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 414.5 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play.

The Jaguars haven't exactly been stopping anyone, either.  They rank 21st in allowing 5.7 yards per play this season.  But they have gotten their offense going in recent weeks with 27 points three weeks ago against the Raiders and 28 against the Ravens last week.  I see both teams getting 28-plus in this one, and we only need a 27-24 final to cash this OVER ticket.

The Lions have really been an OVER team of late because they have gotten healthy on offense.  They have scored 25, 31 and 31 points in their last three games overall.  Detroit's five non-divisional home games have all seen 53 or more combined points and an average of 68 combined points per game.

The OVER is 6-1 in Jaguars last seven road games.  The OVER is 9-4 in Lions last 13 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Patriots AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo -3

The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season.  They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288.  They won 47-17 in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.

Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy.  Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.

The Bills are the better team, period.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  The Patriots are 18th in scoring offense at 21.7 points per game, 21st in total offense at 325.9 yards per game and 17th at 5.4 yards per play.  These teams are almost dead even in defensive stats this season, but the edge the Bills have on offense should warrant them being more than 3-point favorites here.  

The road team is 19-7-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  I recommend buying the Bills down from -3.5 to -3 -130 or better.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

20* Bills/Patriots AFC East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5

The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season.  They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 for 54 combined points on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288.  They won 47-17 for 64 combined points in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.

Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy.  Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.

The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  They are going to get their points, and the Patriots are going to have to throw the ball more than they want to to try and stay in this game.  This is such a low total for a game involving Buffalo.  In fact, this 43.5-point total is the lowest of the season for a Buffalo game.  That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER.

Mac Jones is coming off one of the best games of his career.  He led the Patriots to 26 points against the Vikings while throwing for 364 yards.  Unfortunately, they lost that game by 7 as their defense proved vulnerable giving up 33 points to the Vikings.  And we saw the Vikings and Bills play in a shootout recently that saw 63 combined points.

New England is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 home games after passing for more than 350 yards in its previous game.  Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after winning six or seven of its last eight games.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Steelers/Colts ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 39

Both the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) and Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) suffered crushing losses to their playoff hopes last week.  The Steelers lost 30-37 at home to the Bengals, while the Colts blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead in a 17-16 home loss to the Eagles.  I expect a pretty care-free game here on Monday Night Football with both offenses performing better than expected.

The Colts have been better offensively since getting both Matt Ryan and Johnathan Taylor back from injury.  They have averaged 20.5 points per game in their last two games against the Raiders and Eagles.  They have been able to run the football, and Ryan is making enough plays in play-action to keep the offense moving.  Now they'll be up against a Steelers defense that just allowed 37 points and 408 total yards to the Bengals last week.

The Steelers finally got their offense going the past two weeks under Kenny Pickett.  After scoring 20 points and gaining 379 yards against the Saints two weeks ago, they put up 30 points and 351 yards on the Bengals last week.  Najee Harris looks fully healthy now and has rushed for 90-plus yards in consecutive weeks.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Pittsburgh) - off a close division loss by 7 points or less with a losing record on the season are 34-14 (70.8%) over the last 10 seasons.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Expect more offense than the books are giving these teams credit for in this standalone game.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle Seahawks -3.5

The Seattle Seahawks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Germany last time out.  They won those four games all by double-digits.  They are coming off their bye week and will be rested and ready to go as they try and win the NFC West here down the stretch.  They sit at 6-4 on the season with an excellent chance to do just that with the way they are playing.

This line would be bigger had the Raiders not pulled off the 22-16 (OT) upset in Denver last week.  But that was a Denver team that has more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL, and they took advantage.  I expect the Raiders to still be pretty tired from that OT win, plus this is a team that went 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games with losses to the Saints, Jaguars and Colts while getting outscored 76-40 in the process.

Despite the win last week, the Raiders are just 3-7 this season and out of the playoff hunt.  They are still without two of Derek Carr's favorite weapons in TE Waller and WR Renfrow, and they could be without RB Josh Jacobs, who is questionable with an ankle injury.  They don't have the horses on offense right now to keep up with Seattle, and they certainly don't have the defense to slow down the Seahawks.

Seattle ranks 5th in scoring offense this season at 25.7 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play, and it has shredded defenses like the Raiders all season.  Las Vegas ranks 24th in scoring defense at 24.2 points per game, 27th in total defense at 370.5 yards per game and 28th at 5.9 yards per play.  Seattle has really been buttoned up defensively of late and has one of the most improved stop units in the NFL.  The Seahawks are allowing just 17.4 points per game in their last five games.

Seattle is 6-0 ATS in his last six home games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Seahawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  Pete Carroll is 45-24-4 ATS following a loss as the coach of Seattle.  The Seahawks are 41-19-4 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Carolina Panthers +2

The Carolina Panthers continue to show up every week under interim head coach Steve Wilks.  They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  They have upset wins over Tampa Bay 21-3 as 13-point dogs and Atlanta by 10 as 2-point dogs.  They also only lost by 3 at Atlanta as 4-point dogs.  They gave the Ravens all they wanted last week in a game that was tied 3-3 with under 10 minutes to go, eventually losing 13-3 as 13-point dogs after a couple of late turnovers.

This week the offense gets a spark with Sam Darnold expected to be the starting quarterback.  He cannot possibly be a downgrade to Baker Mayfield or PJ Walker.  I think at least for one week, this offense will be excited to see a new face in the huddle and will perform well.  But this game will be played on the ground with a 100% chance of precipitation and 16 MPH winds.

The Panthers have been great running the ball in recent weeks, averaging 134.8 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  Denver is doing nothing well offensively.  The Broncos rank dead last (32nd) in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game.  They rank 24th in rushing at 102.6 yards per game and 28th at 3.9 yards per carry.  With this game being played mostly on the ground, it's definitely worth noting the Panthers rank 17th allowing 4.5 yards per carry while the Broncos rank 26th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed.

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Broncos.  They have more players on the injury report and more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL.  They are going to be without two of their best receivers again in Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler.  The offensive line is a mess as Russell Wilson has no time to throw the ball, which is a big reason the offense has struggled so much.

This Denver defense has kept the team in games for much of the season, but they are tired of it at this point.  Denver sits at 3-7 with nothing to play for the rest of the way after a 22-16 (OT) home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week.  They even gave up 409 total yards to a bad Raiders offense that is missing several key weapons.  I don't think they'll have it in them to match the physicality of this Carolina rush offense this week, especially being extra tired coming off an OT game.

Plays against favorites (Denver) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Denver has no business being a road favorite over anyone right now given all their injuries.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3

The Tampa Bay Bucs saved their season two games back when they put together a last-second touchdown drive to beat the Rams.  They followed it up with a 21-16 win over Seattle in Germany in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bucs outgained the Seahawks 419 to 283, or by 136 total yards.

Now the Bucs are in a great spot here coming off their bye week.  They are as healthy as they have been all season.  Look for them to carry their positive momentum into this showdown with the Cleveland Browns, who are just waiting to get DeShaun Watson in the lineup next week.  Jacoby Brissett is just a sitting duck this week.

The Browns sit at 3-7 on the season and out of the playoff hunt after losing six of their last seven games overall.  They followed up a 17-39 loss at Miami with a 23-31 loss to Buffalo in Detroit last week in what was a hectic week due to the game being moved.  Keep in mind the Browns scored in the final seconds in garbage time to turn a 15-point game into an 8-point game against the Bills.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Browns, too.  They just lost All-Pro C Ethan Pocic last week to a knee injury that has landed him on injured reserve.  The entire offensive line is pretty much banged up, which is why the Browns have struggled to run the football in recent weeks, which used to be their strength.  They have rushed for just 192 yards on 50 carries the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Bills for 3.8 per carry.

But the biggest problem for the Browns is a leaky, banged up defense.  They rank 30th in the NFL in scoring defense at 26.9 points per game and 24th allowing 5.8 yards per play.  The Bucs have come to life offensively in recent weeks, and they should hang a big number on Cleveland this week.  The move to give third-round rookie RB Rashaad White more touches is paying off.  He rushed for 105 yards against the Seahawks last time out.  Brady has pretty much his full compliment of weapons now in Evans, Godwin, Jones, Miller and Brate healthy.

The Bucs rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.0 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play allowed.  The Browns are 24-51-1 ATS in their last 76 games following a loss.  I just think this is a terrible spot for the Browns given their season outlook currently and with Watson coming back next week.  It's a great spot for the Bucs off a bye, as healthy as they have been all season, and with positive momentum as they try and win the NFC South down the stretch.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +4

I love the spot for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week.  They are coming off a bye under first-year head coach Doug Pederson.  First-year head coaches can really get some good work in on bye weeks, and I look for this Jaguars team to come out of it very sharp.

Jacksonville is much better than its 3-7 record would indicate.  Six of the seven losses have come by one score, so they have been unfortunate in close games.  The only one that wasn't a one-score loss was a 10-point loss at Kansas City in which they went 1-for-3 on field goals, otherwise it would have been a one-score loss.

Jacksonville is actually outgaining teams by 5 yards per game on the season, outscoring opponents by 1.1 points per game, and dead even in yards per play on offense and defense at 5.7.  This is more like a .500 team than one that is just 3-7 this season, which provides us some line value with the Jaguars moving forward.  The Ravens shouldn't be more than 3-point road favorites here.

Baltimore is getting too much love for this four-game winning streak over Cleveland, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina.  It was ugly last week against the Panthers as the offense was broken.  It was a 3-3 game with 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter before the Ravens eventually won 13-3 after getting some late turnovers by the Panthers.

Lamar Jackson doesn't look right and is clearly playing through injury.  TE Mark Andrews is playing through injury, and Jackson misses his best deep threat in Rashod Bateman, who is on IR.  Jackson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in six of his last seven games.  Stop Baltimore's rushing attack and you have a chance.

Well, the Jaguars are pretty good at stopping the run.  The Jaguars rank 10th in the NFL allowing 110.1 rushing yards per game.  They are also 8th in the NFL in allowing just 4.2 yards per carry.  The Ravens' best lineman in T Ronnie Stanley got injured last week and is questionable this week as well.

Baltimore is a woeful 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  It is actually getting outscored by 1.8 points per game in this spot.  Pederson is 13-3 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as a head coach.  The Jaguars are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.  They're probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Commanders -3

The Washington Commanders have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff hunt, sitting in 7th place in the NFC.  They won't be having a letdown this week considering they host the Atlanta Falcons, who are one game behind them.  I think Washington is by far the superior team in this matchup and should be more than a 3-point favorite at home.

The offense has a certain swagger with Taylor Heineke at quarterback.  Players love this guy.  He is making all the plays he needs to make to get wins.  The Commanders have victories over Green Bay, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Houston with their lone loss coming to the Vikings by 3 in Heineke's last five starts.  But it's this Washington defense that is the reason they are going to win and cover this week.

Atlanta can't match Washington defensively.  The Commanders rank 12th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game, 6th in total defense at 308.0 yards per game and 11th at 5.2 yards per play allowed.  Atlanta ranks 27th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 29th in total defense at 389.4 yards per game and 29th at 5.9 yards per play allowed.

There is a 100% chance of precipitation so this game will be played on the ground.  That's especially the case for the Falcons, who just lost one of their best weapons in TE Kyle Pitts to injured reserve last week with a knee injury.  The Falcons average 159 rushing yards per game and only 154 passing.  Well, Washington ranks 6th against the run allowing 103.1 yards per game and 9th at 4.2 yards per carry.  They haven't allowed anything on the ground in four of their last five games, holding the Packers to 38 rushing yards, the Vikings to 56, the Eagles to 94 and the Texans to 21.  They may get Chase Young back, too.

Washington is more balanced and has gotten its running game going in recent weeks with 128 or more rushing yards in five of its last six games.  The Commanders should be able to run all over an Atlanta defense that ranks 21st in allowing 123.1 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.  After allowing 232 rushing yards to the Panthers two weeks ago, the Falcons gave up 160 more to the Bears last week.

Washington is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 as the coach of Washington.  The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight November games.  It's not time to step in front of this freight train in Washington just yet as the Falcons won't be the team that offers resistance to them.  Take the Commanders Sunday.

15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -8

The New York Giants are finally starting to get exposed for the frauds they are.  After a shocking 7-1 start to the season where all the breaks went their way late in games, they have gone 1-2 since with a 14-point loss at Seattle and a 13-point home loss to Detroit.  Their lone win came at home 24-16 over the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans.  They were actually outgained by 20 yards by the Texans, too.

Last week's loss to the Lions was more costly than just one loss.  They had six players leave the game due to injury, including top WR Wan'Dale Robinson.  Both starting CB's in Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreu, S Jason Pinnock, C Jon Feliciano and RT Tyre Phillips also left Sunday's game with injuries.  

Robinson was having a career game prior to the injury with nine receptions for 100 yards.  Darius Slayton entered Sunday as the only receiver with more than 200 receiving yards.  Kenny Golloday doubled his catch total this season with a pair of receptions.  The secondary is a major concern moving forward.  Starting S Xavier McKinney is already on injured reserve because of a hand injury suffered over the bye week.  As of Tuesday, S Belton, T Thomas, G Lemieux, C Feliciano, CB Moreau, S Pinnock and CB Jackson are all questionable.  Robinson has joined McKinney on IR.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys come in healthy and rested following a 40-3 beat down of the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter.  They racked up 458 total yards and held the Vikings to just 183 total yards, outgaining them by 275 yards.  The win really flash the potential of the Cowboys, which is clearly that of a Super Bowl contender.

Dallas ranks 7th in scoring offense at 25.1 points per game.  Those numbers would be even better if Dak Prescott was healthy the entire season.  He has led the Cowboys to 35.3 points per game in his four starts since returning from injury.  This Dallas defense has been elite all season.  They rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.6 yards per game and 5th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.  

The Giants are averaging 5.1 yards per pay on offense and allowing 5.8 per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play.  That's why they are frauds and shouldn't be 7-3.  One of those losses came at home to the Cowboys 23-16 with Cooper Rush at quarterback.  So the Cowboys should have no problem winning by 10-plus at home this time around, especially since they are healthy with Dak back in the rematch, plus the Giants are missing a ton of key players that they had in the first meeting.

The Cowboys own the Giants going 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Dallas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. NFC East opponents, and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 division games.  Dallas is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games overall.  Take the Cowboys Thursday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Lions OVER 52.5

I cashed in the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns in Detroit on Sunday.  I'm back on the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions at Ford Field again Thursday.  These are two dead nuts OVER teams right now that are playing great offense and terrible defense.

The Bills rank 1st in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 417.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  Detroit ranks 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 6th in total offense at 366.6 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play.

It's well known the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, dead last (32nd) in total defense at 415.9 yards per game and dead last at 6.4 yards per play.  They just gave up over 400 yards to the lowly Giants last week and have now allowed at least 400 yards in four consecutive games.  They just lost their top CB in Okudah last week and could be without CB LUcas, DE Paschal and DL Harris.

The Bills started the season with one of the best defenses in the NFL, but injuries have really caught up with them on that side of the football.  After allowing 33 points and 481 total yards to the Vikings two weeks ago, they gave up 23 points and 386 total yards to the Browns last week.  The Lions will have success moving the football on this banged-up Bills defense that is without S Hyde and could be without DE Epenesa, LB Edmunds and CB White this week.  This is the healthiest this Detroit offense has been in a long time and is a big part of their three-game winning streak.

The OVER is 9-3 in Lions last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 20-8 in Lions last 28 home games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games following a win.  The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight road games vs. good passing teams completing 61% of their passes or better in the second half of the season.  The OVER is 10-1 in Bills last 11 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* 49ers/Cardinals ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -7.5

The San Francisco 49ers are quickly becoming one of the best teams in the NFL the healthier they get.  After beating the Rams 31-14 on the road three weeks ago, they came back from their bye with a 22-16 home win over the Chargers.  It was more dominant than that scored showed as the 49ers outgained the Chargers by 149 yards.

Speaking of dominant, the 49ers have dominant numbers this season.  They rank 9th in total offense at 360.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play.  The 49ers rank 1st in total defense at 280.6 yards per game and 3rd at 4.7 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 80 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play, which are some of the best numbers in the entire NFL.

The Cardinals are 19th in total offense at 333.7 yards per game and 29th at 4.9 yards per play.  Arizona is 23rd in total defense at 357.6 yards per game and 21st at 5.7 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 24 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Cardinals.  They still don't know whether Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy will be their quarterback as both are banged up.  Whoever is under center will be playing behind a shoddy offensive line that is missing several starters and cannot protect anyone.  They will also be without two of their best weapons in TE Zach Ertz and WR Marquise Brown, and WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable as well.  They just cannot be trusted with all of these injuries right now, and their lack of depth will be tested playing in the altitude in Mexico City.

The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a non-conference game.  San Francisco is 35-13 ATS in its last 48 Monday Night Football games.  Arizona is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a good offensive team that averages 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.  The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season.  The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. NFC West opponents.  The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. NFC West foes.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Monday Night Football games.  Bet the 49ers Monday.

15* Chiefs/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6

Let's just start out by looking at this from a line value perspective.  The Chargers were 4-point underdogs in their 24-27 loss at Kansas City earlier this season.  Now they are 6-point home underdogs in the rematch.  There's clearly value on the Chargers given the change in venue from the first meeting, though they admittedly don't have much home-field advantage.

The Chargers are 'all in' this week.  This game will determine whether or not they have a chance to win the division.  They need this game more than the Chiefs do.  That's evident by the fact that both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returned to practice this week and are expected to go.  Allen has just six receptions on the season and has basically been out all year.  Williams has missed the past two games.  It's amazing the Chargers sit at 5-4 without these guys.  But this is as healthy as they have been in a long time and it's going to make a major difference this week.

The Chiefs have small cornerbacks outside, so Allen and Williams can use their size to make plays for Justin Herbert.  He doesn't have to dink and dunk it down the field anymore like he has been doing without these guys.  Herbert has never lost as an underdog of 5-plus points in his career with a perfect ATS record in this spot.

The Chiefs are the ones with the injury problems this week.  Patrick Mahomes is going to be without his two favorite receivers in JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman.  JuJu has 46 receptions for 615 yards and two touchdowns and was really forming a nice chemistry with Mahomes before being knocked out of the game against the Jaguars last week.  Hardman has 25 receptions for 297 yards and four touchdowns and is their most explosive receiver.

One hidden gem here is that Derwin James owns Travis Kelce.  In his career when matched up against James, Kelce averages just 1.2 yards per target.  James shuts him down, and he will blanket Kelce again in this game knowing that Mahomes is limited on weapons.  I think this Kansas City offense will look lost this week.

The Chiefs haven't won any of their last five meetings with the Chargers by more than 6 points.  And that 6-point victory came in overtime.  The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC opponents.  Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Chiefs are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games.  They were fortunate to cover by 0.5 against the Jaguars last week as Jacksonville missed two field goals.  They won't be so fortunate this week as I think Los Angeles wins this game outright.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday night.

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -1

I love this spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They were coming off their bye last week and blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to lose to the Green Bay Packers.  They will be pissed off from that defeat, and I look for them to take it out on the Minnesota Vikings this week.  They were previously 195-0 when having at least a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter in franchise history.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are feeling fat and happy from their OT win in Buffalo.  It took a miracle fumble by Josh Allen on the goal line for them to win that game.  They've had every break possible go their way this season, and at some point their luck is going to run out.  I believe that to be this week against the Cowboys, who are clearly the better team and favored for good reason here.

Amazingly, Minnesota is 8-1 this season despite getting outgained by 25 yards per game and outgained by 0.5 yards per play.  That's the definition of a miracle.  They have the numbers more of a team that is below .500 than one that is 8-1.  But they're 7-0 in one score games, which has been the difference.  I don't believe this will be a one score game as I have Dallas blowing them out of the building.

Worst case these teams are even on offense, but Dallas has a way better defense.  The Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in scoring defense at 18.2 points per game, 11th in total defense at 324.8 yards per game and 6th in allowing just 5.0 yards per play.  Minnesota ranks 29th in total defense allowing 381.2 yards per game and 28th in allowing 5.9 yards per play.  At some point, their leaky defense is going to catch up with them, and I think it'll be this week.

Dallas is likely to get Anthony Barr back at linebacker, which will allow Micah Parsons to get back on the defensive line and rush the passer more.  They are much better when he's rushing the passer than when he's in coverage, though he can do it all.  Minnesota has some injuries in the secondary and is terrible defending the pass.  

They run a Cover 2 shell to try and mask it, but Dak Prescott has the 2nd-best passer rating in the NFL against the Cover 2 shell over the last two seasons.  The Vikings will be without DT Tomlinson, while the Cowboys get RB Elliott back this week, so they should be able to impose their will by running the football with plenty of success.  That will open up things for Dak against that Cover 2 shell look.

The Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 235 or more yards per game.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.