15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Vikings UNDER 47 

The Minnesota Vikings have had one of the best defenses in the NFL since Mike Zimmer took over.  That was the case again last season as they ranked among the league leaders in giving up 21.3 points and 309.7 yards per game, including 19.6 points and 268.2 yards per game at home. 

The Vikings didn’t get the boost from Kirk Cousins they wanted last year.  They scored just 22.5 points per game and Cousins struggled down the stretch.  A big problem was the play calling, which is why Zimmer brought in a new offensive coordinator.  He wants to run the ball more and take pressure off Cousins, which will make them more of a ball control offense that controls time of possession and shortens games.  It makes sense to use that strategy and lean on their defense, which is their strength. 

The Falcons have a good offense and a lot of weapons.  They should be pretty solid on that side of the ball again.  But they were terrible defensively last season due to all their injuries.  They get back three key starters on defense that missed at least half the season last year.  I expect the Falcons to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL now. 

The last two meetings in this series have been defensive battles won by the Vikings.  Minnesota won 20-10 in 2015 for 30 combined points.  The Vikings also won 14-9 in 2017 for 23 combined points.  It’s clear that Zimmer has the Falcons figured out.  And I expect both offenses to be rusty in Week 1 due to a lack of playing time for their starters in the preseason. 

Minnesota is 18-6 UNDER in its last 24 home games during the first two weeks of the season.  Zimmer is 24-11 UNDER in dome games as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 40-23 UNDER against NFC opponents as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +3 

The Panthers opened 6-2 last year before Cam Newton injured his shoulder.  They weren’t the same after that and went 1-7 down the stretch.  Now Newton’s shoulder is healthy, and he’s fully recovered from his ankle injury suffered in the preseason.  The Panthers upgraded their offensive line to help keep Newton upright. 

Christian McCaffrey is one of the best running backs in the sport after amassing nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage last year.  DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are ready for bigger roles in the passing game, and they added Chris Hogan. 

Defensively, the Panthers should remain one of the top units in the league.  They added some great talent to their defensive line in Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe.  They also added DE Brian Burns in the first round of the draft and added DE Bruce Irvin.  They should have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL now.  I love the linebackers led by Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson.  Having a strong front seven will help make up for their biggest weakness, which is their secondary. 

The Panthers can only stay healthier as they had the 7th-most starts lost to injury last year.  They also went 2-7 in one-possession games last year.  These are all signs of positive regression coming.  And the Panthers always seem to bounce back and make the playoffs the year after missing out on the postseason under Ron Rivera. 

The Rams were fortunate to win 13 games last year.  They went 6-1 in one-score games, which is very hard to do.  They recovered 71% of their fumbles on defense, which is the highest fumble recovery rate since 1991.  The Rams paid all their star players, which means they don’t have much depth now.  They lost two starts on the offensive line in Roger Saffold and John Sullivan.  They have an aging defense, which is where the lack of depth will be felt most. 

I’m not a big fan of Jared Goff as I think he has been the beneficiary of Sean McVay’s system.  And I think the Rams are primed for the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, which seems to happen to every team that loses the Super Bowl the year before outside of the Patriots.  In fact, the previous year's Super Bowl loser is 3-16 ATS in Week 1 since 2000.

The Panthers have a great home-field advantage.  They are 39-27 ATS at home with Ron Rivera as their head coach, including 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.  The Panthers were on a 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS run at home before Cam Newton got injured last year.  The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last five trips to Carolina. 

This is a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Rams as its always tough for West Coast teams to travel out East for early start times.  We’ll buy low on the Panthers and sell high on the Rams here in Week 1.  Bet the Panthers Sunday. 

20* Packers/Bears 2019 NFL Season Opener on Chicago -3 

I just don’t think people are giving the Bears the respect they deserve heading into 2019.  They feel as if their 12-4 season last year was a one-hit wonder.  Well, the Bears are out to prove that it was no fluke, and I’m a believer against the Packers here in Week 1. 

For starters, the Bears are loaded defensively.  They gave up just 17.6 points per game and 299.7 yards per game last year to rank among the league leaders in both categories.  They only lost CB Bryce Callahan and S Adrian Amos from that team.  Khalil Mack single-handedly wrecks opposing offenses and their trade for him could go down as one of the best trades in NFL history. 

Offensively, the Bears improved in Year 2 under Mitchell Trubisky.  They put up 25.6 points and 344.4 yards per game.  And the scary part is, that was the first year in Matt Nagy’s system for the Bears.  They should only be better with Trubisky now likely to come into his own, and with his plethora of weapons around him.  Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller are the receiving options, and Trey Burton is a very good tight end.  They also used their third-round pick on RB David Montgomery after trading away Jordan Howard, and he’s a better fit for Nagy’s system and is drawing rave reviews. 

The Packers gave up 25.0 points per game last year and have failed to upgrade their defense for years.  They finally spent some money in free agency to try and upgrade their pass rush by bringing in Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith.  But they lost some key players as well along the front seven in DT Mike Daniels, DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/OLB Nick Perry, DE/OLB Clay Matthews and ILB Jake Ryan.  They also lost CB Baushaud Breeland and S Kentrell Brice in the secondary.  This defense is mostly filled with no-name guys that the Packers hope will stick. 

Green Bay needs more production from its offense because it will likely be in a lot of shootouts this season.  Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy had a falling out.  They brought in Matt LaFleur to try and turn things around.  He was the offensive coordinator for the Rams in 2017 and held the same position with the Titans last year.  He and Rodgers are getting along well so far according to reports.  However, I think the Packers could be rusty in Week 1 because Rodgers didn’t play a single snap in the preseason. 

Last year, the Bears only lost 23-24 at Green Bay as 6.5-point dogs in their opener.  They blew a double-digit lead.  They would come back to get revenge 24-17 against Rodgers and the Packers as 5.5-point home favorites in December.  So from a line value perspective alone, I think we are getting good value with the Bears only being 3-point favorites at home in the opener compared to 5.5-point favorites against the Packers at home last year. 

The Bears are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC North opponents.  Chicago is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Bears are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games.  The Packers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. NFC North foes.  Bet the Bears Thursday. 

20* Patriots/Rams Super Bowl LIII No-Brainer on New England -2.5 

The New England Patriots have saved their best football for last.  And I just don’t see them losing to the Rams to drop their second consecutive Super Bowl.  I’ll gladly lay the short number here on the Patriots -2.5 over the Rams in Super Bowl LIII 

The Patriots have outgained seven of their last eight opponents with the only exception being the eight yards they were outgained by in their 10-17 road loss to Pittsburgh.  They have outgained six of those opponents by 100-plus yards.  And they have just been even better in the playoffs. 

Indeed, the Patriots racked up 498 total yards on offense in their 41-28 win over the Chargers.  They outgained the Chargers by 163 yards in that game and would have won by more if they didn’t let their foot off the gas after jumping out to a 35-7 lead.  And in the AFC Championship, the Patriots racked up 524 total yards and outgained them by 234 yards.  It was a much bigger blowout than the 37-31 (OT) final would indicate. 

The Rams have been much less impressive in the playoffs thus far.  They beat the Cowboys 30-22 at home and barely covered as 7.5-point favorites.  And they never should have won at New Orleans, winning 26-23 (OT) only after the refs blew a pass interference call in the final seconds that would have given the Saints the win.  I don’t think they’ll have karma on their side here since the NFL knows that the Rams don’t belong in the Super Bowl. 

The Patriots will be making their 9th Super Bowl appearance in Tom Brady’s 19 seasons.  They clearly have experience handling everything that comes with the Super Bowl, especially since they will be playing in the Super Bowl for the third consecutive season.  The 33-year-old Sean McVay is is a great head coach, but he doesn’t have Super Bowl experience, and neither do most of his players.  They will be at a big disadvantage here because of their lack of experience. 

Bill Belichick is a master at taking away the opponents’ strengths.  That’s what helped the Patriots get out to a 35-7 lead over the Chargers and a 14-0 lead over the Chiefs at halftime.  They completely shut down both offenses in the first half of both of those games, and I think they’ll do the same here against the Rams.  The Rams want to run the football, and the Patriots will take it away and make Jared Goff try and beat them.  I don’t think Goff is built to handle the pressure of the moment here knowing he’s going to have to keep up with Tom Brady. 

Brady has actually gotten better with age.  Brady averaged 267.5 passing yards per game in the postseason before turning 40.  He has thrown for 364.6 passing yards per game since turning 40, nearly 100 yards more since reaching that milestone.  He has 10 touchdowns against only two interceptions since turning 40 in his five postseason games.  He threw for a Super Bowl-record 505 yards against the Eagles last year and the Patriots never had to punt.  I can only think that the Patriots will be much better defensively this time around to help him out. 

The Patriots are 11-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  New England is 17-4 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three years.  The Patriots are 8-0 ATS after leading their last three games by 7-plus points at halftime over the last three seasons.  New England is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 35 points or more last game over the last three seasons.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

My 10 Favorite Prop Bets for Super Bowl 53:

Edelman Under 81.5 receiving yards (+100) 

Edelman will be covered in the slot by Nickell Robey-Coleman.  Robey-Coleman is the #1 slot corner in the NFL in terms of yards per attempt allowed to slot receivers.  Edelman plays from the slot, and I expect the Rams to try and take him out of the game with Robey-Coleman matched up against him almost every snap. 

Gronkowski Over 50.5 receiving yards (-150) 

Not only are the Rams good at covering slot receivers, they’re also 3rd in the NFL in covering opposing running backs.  But they aren’t good at covering tight ends.  Gronk should be able to take advantage of his matchups against linebackers and against safety Mark Barron.  Gronk has averaged 52.5 receiving yards per game this season through the playoffs, and he’s been limited by injury.  The Patriots unleashed him last week against the Chiefs as he had 6 receptions for 79 yards.  He also had 116 receiving yards in the Super Bowl last year.  Gronk will be their best matchup to go to in the passing game. 

Sony Michel Over 17.5 rush attempts (-140) 

The Patriots have been going run-heavy in the playoffs.  They’ve made a point of getting off to fast starts, leading 35-7 over the Chargers at halftime and 14-0 over the Chiefs at halftime.  That has certainly inflated their rushing numbers, but I expect them to get off to another fast start in the Super Bowl.  In the two playoff games, Michel rushed 24 times against the Chargers and 29 times against the Chiefs.  He has had at least 17 rush attempts in 6 of his last 8 games. 

James White Over 3.5 rush attempts (-135) 

The Patriots have rushed at least 30 times in 7 of their last 8 games overall.  Not all those carries will go to Michel.  White should get his fair share here, too.  White has had at least 4 rush attempts in 14 of his 18 games this season. 

Patriots Over 128.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

The Patriots have rushed for at least 131 yards in 4 straight games.  They have averaged 160.4 rushing yards per game in their last 8 games overall.  The Rams were 28th in rushing DVOA during the regular season.  They don’t stop the run very well.  The Patriots know they’ll have success running the football against the Rams, and they should exploit it. 

Rams Under 126.5 Rushing Yards (-125) 

The Patriots have allowed 104 or fewer rushing yards in 6 of their last 8 games overall.  They have allowed 118 or fewer rushing yards in 11 of their last 15 games.  Belichick knows that they need to try and make Jared Goff try and beat them.  They aren’t going to let CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley get off.  And since I expect the Patriots to take the early lead, I think this UNDER 126.5 prop is a good one. 

Brandin Cooks Under 75.5 Receiving Yards (-135) 

Cooks has 65 or fewer receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 games overall.  He is only averaging 58.9 receiving yards per game in those 7 games.  That’s nearly 17 yards less than this 75.5-yard total for him.  The Patriots have some shutdown corners on the outside who are going to make life difficult for Cooks.  They also have familiarity with Cooks after playing with him last season.  They know exactly what his routes look like. 

Rams Total Penalties Accepted Over 5.5 (-135) 

The Rams are a young team with almost no Super Bowl experience.  They have a young head coach in Sean McVay.  I can see the moment being too big for many of their players.  And where that shows up a lot is in false starts, offsides, and alignment penalties.  They average 6 penalties per game on the season.  I expect them to commit at least 6 penalties in this game. 

Total QB Sacks Over 3.5 (-135) 

Two immobile quarterbacks in this game.  I think it’s safe to say that both teams figure to get at least 2 sacks. Both teams like to run play-action, which will allow edge rushers to get to the quarterback if they don’t bite on fakes.  So I like the Over 3.5 quite a bit. 

Team to score last wins the Super Bowl (-190) 

Expected to be yet another close Super Bowl.  And we’ve had our share of late.  9 of the last 11 Super Bowls have been decided by one score.  And this prop has gone 12-1 in the last 13 Super Bowls.  The team that has scored last has won 12 of the last 13.  I’m willing to lay the -190 on this prop for this trend to continue. 

15* Patriots/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -3 

When you consider the Patriots needed a last-second field goal to beat the Chiefs at home in their first meeting this season, it’s easy to see why I like the Chiefs this week.  Now the Chiefs are at home as they earned home-field advantage with the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  That’s going to be the difference in this game Sunday. 

The Chiefs are 8-1 at home this season.  Their defense has played so much better at home than on the road.  They are giving up just 17.4 points and 344.6 yards per game at home this season.  They held the Colts to just 13 points and 263 total yards last week, which is no small feat with how well the Colts were rolling.  And now they will shut down Tom Brady and company this week. 

While the Patriots are 9-0 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, the Patriots are just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road this season, actually getting outscored by 2.4 points per game on average.  They give up 399 yards per game on the road, and their offense is only scoring 21.6 points per game on the highway.  The Patriots have losses to the likes of Jacksonville (20-31), Detroit (10-26), Tennessee (10-34) and Miami (33-34) on the road this season.  All four of those are non-playoff teams even.  They also lost to Pittsburgh, and their three wins have come against the Jets, Bills and Bears. 

The Patriots have never gone to the Super Bowl the year after losing the Super Bowl, going 0-5 in five tries.  Tom Brady is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS as a road underdog in the playoffs.  And Brady lost his big play threat in Josh Gordon late in the season.  Brady averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with Gordon on the field, and only 5.6 per attempt with Gordon off the field this season.  Gronk is a shell of his former self.  He has two or fewer receptions and 25 or fewer receiving yards in four straight games right now. 

Home teams are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the Championship Round over the last five years.  That’s right, no team has gone on the road in the last five years and won a game to get to the Super Bowl.  It’s worth noting that the Patriots scored 41 points on the Chargers last week.  But teams who scored 40 points or more in a playoff win the previous week are just 5-25-1 ATS the next week, including 2-11-1 ATS in the Championship Round.  Also, the Patriots have been home for three straight weeks, which has been a big advantage for them.  Teams who go on the road following three straight home games have gone 3-14 SU & 3-14 ATS in the playoffs. 

Kansas City is 9-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Patriots are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference championship games.  It’s Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes’ time.  They are getting to the Super Bowl with a win and cover here against the ‘mighty’ Patriots.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3 

The Saints are the best team in the NFC.  They have been all season, and they still are.  So with that being the case, they should be more than a 3-point favorite over the Rams when you factor in home-field advantage.  The home field for the Saints is worth more than 3 points, especially in a playoff atmosphere.  And they’re the better team.  This line should be closer to -4.5 or -5 than -3. 

I think because the Saints have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, while the Rams have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall gives us a ‘buy low, sell high’ opportunity here.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Saints and ’sell high’ on the Rams.  But the Saints were big favorites in each of their last four games, and they won three of them.  The only one they lost was a meaningless Week 17 game against Carolina in which they rested their starters. 

I think the Saints are getting discredited too much for their 20-14 win over the Eagles last week.  The way they won trailing 14-0 and overcoming adversity to score the final 20 points and shut down the Eagles after the first quarter will give them a ton of confidence heading into this game.  This team feel invincible now, especially after the defense came up with a huge INT to save the game on the final drive.  And it’s worth noting the Saints outgained the Eagles by 188 yards in that game.  The Rams lost outright to the Eagles 23-30 at home as 13.5-point favorites late in the season. 

I’m definitely backing the better quarterback here in Drew Brees, and the better defense in the Saints.  I’ll almost always back the better QB and the better defense every time in this situation.  Drew Brees is 6-0 in playoff home games under Sean Payton.  The Saints are scoring 32.6 points and averaging 402.9 yards per game at home this season. 

But it’s the defense that really gets me excited.  The Saints have allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games in which their starters played.  They are giving up just 14.5 points per game in those eight games in which their starters played.  And I think the biggest strength, which is their run D, will be huge in this matchup. 

Jared Goff can’t be trusted in big games.  He has a 0-to-5 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against playoff teams.  It’s a big reason the Rams went run-heavy last week, rushing for 273 yards on 48 carries against the Cowboys.  But it’s worth noting they had a huge advantage because they picked up on a ’tell’ by the Cowboys that let them know which way they were stunting.  Players said it was 80% to 90% of the time right.  It explains why the Rams were able to exploit what was previously a great Cowboys run D. 

Well, the Saints rank 2nd in the NFL against the run, giving up just 80.2 rushing yards per game.  They are also 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt (3.6) allowed.  There’s no question the Saints are going to try to force Jared Goff to try and beat them, and I don’t think he can.  The Rams’ passing game just hasn’t been nearly as effective since Goff lost his favorite security blanked in Cooper Kupp to a season-ending injury. 

The Saints beat the Rams 45-35 at home in their first meeting this season.  They racked up 487 total yards and 31 first downs on this Rams’ defense, which has some star players, but as a whole is extremely vulnerable.  Clearly Brees and company found some holes in the first meeting, throwing for 346 yards and four touchdowns.  That was a 35-14 game and was a bigger blowout than the final score showed even.  And Goff had Kupp, who had 89 receiving yards and a score in that contest. 

Home teams are a perfect 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the Championship Games over the past five seasons.  That’s right, no road team has gone on the road to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl in the last five years.  I don’t think it will be a QB the caliber of Goff that ends this streak Sunday.  The home team has won six straight meetings in this series.  The Saints have won their last three home meetings wit the Rams by an average of 18.7 points per game.  Bet The Saints Sunday. 

15* Chargers/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +4.5 

You’re going to hear a lot about the past history of the Patriots leading up to this game.  How they rarely lose at home in the playoffs, especially after a first-round bye.  And how Tom Brady is 7-0 against Philip Rivers in head-to-head matchups.  No question I factored in those stats as well, but I keep coming back to the fact that these aren’t the same old Patriots, and these aren’t the same old Chargers. 

The Patriots are vulnerable.  They went 11-5, but when you consider they went 5-1 against the terrible AFC East to pad their stats, well they were only 6-4 against all other teams.  They feasted on a weak schedule this season.  Their defense ranks 21st in the league, and their offense hasn’t been nearly as explosive after losing Josh Gordon, and with Rob Gronkowski clearly just a shell of his former self. 

This is easily the best team that Philip Rivers has ever had with the Chargers.  Think about this for a second.  If not for a botched loss to the Broncos with poor clock management down the stretch, the Chargers would be your No. 1 seed in the AFC.  They went 12-4, just like the Chiefs, yet the Chiefs are being treated as the superior team.  I don’t believe that to be the case.  And the Chiefs went into New England and lost on a last-second field goal earlier this season, and that was when the Chiefs were hitting on all cylinders before fading here down the stretch. 

Rivers is loaded with weapons on offense with the likes of Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.  And the defense has been one of the best in the league since getting Joey Bosa back from injury.  The Chargers give up just 20.4 points per game and 327.5 yards per game this season, ranking 9th in total defense.  They have allowed 23 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 games overall with the only exceptions behind the 28 they gave up at Kansas City and the 30 they allowed at Pittsburgh, two games they actually won outright as underdogs.  They are allowing just 17.3 points per game in their last 11 games. 

The tougher the situation, the better the Chargers play.  That’s why I’m not concerned about all the travel talk and this being their 3rd straight road games.  They thrive on the road.  Indeed, the Chargers are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS on the road this season.  Their only loss came at the Rams early in the season.  They have beaten the likes of Seattle, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Baltimore on the road this year, four playoff teams.  And they certainly won’t be phased by having to go into New England this weekend. 

The Chargers are also expected to get NT Brandon Mebane and TE Hunter Henry back from injury this week, and C Mike Pouncey has been given the green light.  This just feels like a changing of the guard-type game as Rivers is on a mission to get that elusive Lombardi Trophy, and he finally has the team that can dethrone New England in the AFC. 

Philip Rivers is 21-7 ATS in his last 28 games as a road underdog of 4 points or more, including 16-3 ATS since 2012.  Bill Belichick is only 2-10 ATS in home games when playing with two or more weeks’ rest as the coach of New England.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six playoff road games, and 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 road games overall.  Underdogs are 14-1 ATS since the start of last year's playoffs.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

20* Cowboys/Rams NFC No-Brainer on Dallas +7 

The Dallas Cowboys are getting zero respect from oddsmakers as touchdown underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams this week.  But, that has been the case for this team for weeks.  The Cowboys have gone 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their only loss came at Indianapolis in a huge letdown spot after beating the Eagles in OT the previous week, which essentially decided the NFC East title. 

The Rams have feasted on bad competition, but they haven’t been good against the league’s best.  Six of the Rams’ last 10 wins came by 7 points or less.  The only four that came by more were against the 49ers (twice), Cardinals and Lions, three of the worst teams in the NFL.  When the Rams have stepped up in class, like they will be here, they have not fared well. 

Indeed, the Rams are 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record this season.  They pushed in a 7-point win against the Vikings and pushed in a 3-point win against the Chiefs.  They lost outright by 9 as 3-point favorites against Chicago, lost outright by 10 as 2.5-point favorites at New Orleans, and lost outright at home as 13.5-point favorites over the Eagles.  They also only beat Seattle by 5 as 9.5-point home favorites and Seattle by 2 as 7-point road favorites.  If Seattle can hang with them twice, Dallas certainly can after dominating the Seahawks last week until a garbage TD in the final seconds that turned a 24-14 game into a 24-22 one. 

The Cowboys have taken off on offense since trading for Amari Cooper.  They have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  They have a great rushing attack that has produced 94-plus yards in 13 of 17 games this season.  They average 4.5 per carry as a team, and they rushed for 164 yards on the Seahawks last week. 

That makes this a bad matchup for a Rams defense that hasn’t been nearly as good as advertised.  The Rams have allowed 27-plus points in six of their last nine games overall.  Their biggest problem is stopping the run as the Rams rank dead last in allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season.  Zeke should be able to have a big game here, which will allow the Cowboys to control time of possession and keep Jared Goff and company off the field. 

The Rams have not been nearly as effective on offense since losing Cooper Kupp to a season-ending injury.  He was Goff’s favorite target on third down.  And now Goff will be up against one of the best defenses he has faced this season.  The Cowboys rank 7th in total defense, giving up 329.2 yards per game this season.  They are 6th in scoring defense (20.2 points/game) and 8th in yards per play (5.4) allowed. 

Todd Gurley has been banged up down the stretch, and that has also hurt the Rams’ offense.  They don’t have a very good offensive line, and it has been exposed.  I expect the Cowboys to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  They will be able to slow down Gurley thanks to a run defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in giving up just 94.6 rushing yards per game, and 4th in yards per carry (3.8) allowed. 

Dallas is 9-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in road games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Dallas is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 games played on a grass field.  The Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Underdogs are 14-1 ATS since the start of last year's playoffs.

The Rams just don’t have much of a home-field advantage at all in Los Angeles.  They were knocked out of the playoffs last year with a home loss to the Falcons.  The Cowboys could easily have nearly 50% of the fans in attendance, making it feel like a home game for them.  Dallas will give them a run for their money here, possibly pulling off the upset.  Take the Cowboys Saturday.

25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts +6 

We have two teams headed in opposite directions here.  The Indianapolis Colts are the hottest team in the NFL, and it’s not even close.  The Kansas City Chiefs certainly faded down the stretch from a point spread perspective and have had trouble living up to their massive expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public. 

Following a 1-5 start, the Colts have gone 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have the best point differential in the entire NFL over these 11 games, which is the sign of an elite team.  They have outscored their last 11 opponents by a total of 131 points, or by an average of 11.9 points per game.  Another sign of an elite team is the fact that the Colts have outgained 10 of their last 11 opponents as well, so there has been nothing fluky about this run. 

Andrew Luck is playing very well, with his 32-to-1 TD/INT ratio in the red zone what stands out most.  He’s clearly back and playing better than ever.  Getting a healthy Marlon Mack back at running back has also been key to their success.  Mack has rushed for 119-plus yards in three of his last five games.  T.Y. Hilton remains explosive, and tight end Eric Ebron leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns.  Plus, the offensive line is playing well, giving up the fewest sacks of any offensive line this season. 

But the biggest reason for the turnaround by the Colts is their defense.  They have allowed just 14.0 points per game in their last eight games overall.  That makes them the best scoring defense in the NFL during this stretch.  It’s a defense that features two rookies who received All-Pro honors.  And all those draft picks the Colts have been spending on defense are really paying off now. 

No question the Chiefs have had the best offense in the NFL this season, but they also have the 31st-ranked defense in giving up 405.5 yards per game this season.  They rank 32nd in DVOA against the run.  They are also 31st in giving up 5.0 yards per carry.  Mack and the Colts are going to have their way on the ground against the Chiefs in this game, and their defense is good enough to slow down Mahomes and company. 

The Chiefs are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have outright losses to the Rams, Chargers and Seahawks during this stretch.  Once they lost Kareem Hunt, they clearly weren’t as explosive on offense.  And they have also been playing without Sammy Watkins, who is questionable to return.  Kansas City’s defense has also allowed 30.2 points per game in its last six games overall.  That’s very concerning considering the weather has gotten colder and it has been more difficult for most offenses to put points on the board.  That hasn’t been the case against the Chiefs down the stretch, and all season really. 

Andy Reid is just 1-7 SU in its last eight playoff games as he has consistently underachieved in the postseason.  This will be the first career playoff start for Mahomes, and it did not go well for the other three first-time starters last week in Lamar Jackson, Mitch Trubisky and DeSean Watson.  In fact, the last 23 first-time starting QB’s in the playoffs have gone just 3-19-1 ATS.  Fading these first-time starters has been a huge money maker over the years. 

Kansas City is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 playoff games.  Underdogs are 14-1 ATS in the playoffs since the start of last year’s postseason, going a perfect 4-0 ATS last week.  The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six playoff home games.  Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Kansas City. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - a good passing team with a completion percentage of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per attempt in four straight games are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Colts Saturday. 

15* Eagles/Bears NFC ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +6 

The Philadelphia Eagles are the Wild Card team that nobody wants to face.  They easily could have packed it in after their 4-6 start this season, but they didn’t.  They went 5-1 in their final six games, including 3-0 in their final three with Nick Foles at quarterback, beating playoff teams in the Rams and Texans along the way.  And their defense remains a juggernaut. 

Foles threw for 962 yards and six touchdowns in the final three games of the season.  This team responded well to him, and he delivered for them.  What you have to like about Foles is that he stretches the field a lot more than Wentz does, taking deep shots to Alshon Jeffery and company that result in chunk plays.  And it makes them a lot less predictable on offense.   

And if you don’t think this Eagles defense is still Super Bowl-caliber, then look no further than the shutout they posted last week against the Redskins in which they allowed just 89 total yards.  They are giving up just 21.7 points per game on the season, including 19.5 points per game during their 5-1 run over the final six weeks of the season. 

Philadelphia’s defense should be able to hold Chicago’s offense in check.  This Chicago offense is the weak link of the team as they obviously have a great defense.  The Bears are just 21st in total offense at 343.9 yards per game, and 20th averaging 5.4 yards per play.  Mitchell Trubisky will be playing in his first-ever playoff game, and he will be asked to make plays that he’s not used to in this pressure situation.  I trust Foles a lot more than Trubisky here.   

And it’s worth noting that both WR’s Anthony Miller (shoulder) and Allen Robinson (ribs) got injured against the Vikings lsat week and were forced to leave the game.  Fellow WR Taylor Gabriel (ribs) is also on the injury report, as is S Eddie Jackson (ankle).  I think the Bears made a big mistake playing their starters the entire game against the Vikings last week.  These injuries were the result, and they certainly would have rather faced Kirk Cousins and the Vikings than Foles and the Eagles.  I think Foles and the Eagles will feel extra motivated here because they feel slighted by the Bears, who clearly wanted to face them rather than Minnesota. 

The Eagles have owned the Bears in recent meetings, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while outscoring the Bears by a whopping 28.7 points per game in the process.  And the Eagles fit into one of my favorite wild card systems.  The team that played the tougher schedule has gone 41-17-1 ATS in wild card games since 2002.  When that difference is 10 or more according to Sagarin SOS rankings, those teams cover at better than an 80% clip.  Well, the Eagles played the 15th-toughest schedule, while the Bears played the 31st-toughest.  That easy schedule is also another reason the Bears are overvalued heading into the playoffs. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Philadelphia) - a good passing team with a completion percentage of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards per attempt in four straight games are 26-8 (76.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight playoff road games.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday.

15* Chargers/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +3 

The resurgence of the Ravens behind rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson has been one of the best stories in the NFL this season.  They went 6-1 down the stretch to win the AFC North by a half-game.  And their defense came up huge last week in stopping the Browns in the final seconds of a 26-24 victory a year after coming up short against the Bengals in Week 17. 

But with this strong finish comes respect from oddsmakers that I don’t think the Ravens deserve.  They are now 3-point home favorites against the Chargers this week after behind 4-point road dogs to the Chargers just two weeks ago.  And this will be the first time this season that Jackson will have to face a team for a second time.  I think the Chargers will come up with a great game plan to stop Jackson and the Ravens in this matchup now that they’ve already played them once. 

That 22-10 final against the Chargers was misleading as well.  The Chargers were down 5 and driving, only for Antonio Gates to fumble, and the Ravens returned it for a touchdown.  And Philip Rivers threw a touchdown in the end zone with one minute remaining as well.  That was certainly not a 12-point game like the final score showed.  It was also a letdown spot for the Chargers, who were coming off a huge 29-28 comeback victory at division rival Kansas City the previous week. 

I think we get the best effort of the season here from the Chargers in revenge mode.  Plus, this is the best road team in the NFL.  The Chargers are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in road games this season, including 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in true road games as they beat the Titans in London.  Their only loss came on the road at the Rams, and they have road wins over the likes of the Seahawks, Steelers and Chiefs this season.  They are more than capable of beating the Ravens on the road here. 

I just trust Philip Rivers more than the rookie Jackson, who will be starting his first playoff game.  Rivers is having one of the best seasons of his career, and he realizes his opportunities are dwindling.  I look for him to make the most of this opportunity.  Rivers is playing at an MVP-level, completing 68.3% of his passes with a 32-to-12 TD/INT ratio.  Melvin Gordon is healthy, and he gets TE Hunter Henry back for the first time this season to add another weapon. 

Rivers is 5-1 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs.  John Harbaugh is 0-7 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive wins as the coach of Baltimore having never covered in this situation.  Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to lose by 13.0 points per game on average in this spot.  Los Angeles is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Chargers Sunday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -1.5 

Since trading for Amari Cooper, the Dallas Cowboys have been rolling.  They have gone 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games to close out the regular season.  Their lone loss was a clear flat spot at Indianapolis in Week 15 as they were coming off a huge OT win over the Eagles the previous week that essentially clinched the NFC East title.  I used the Colts as my 25* NFL Game of the Year that week, and they won 23-0.  It was the best spot of the entire season for the Colts in my opinion. 

Heck, the Cowboys even won last week when they were resting a lot of their starters.  They beat the Giants 36-35 on the road.  The way they won that game gives them a ton of momentum.  Dak Prescott found Cole Beasley in the back of the end zone on 4th down on a tremendous catch by Beasley for the game-winner, and the defense held from there. 

I just think the Seahawks are grossly overvalued.  They managed to go 10-6 this season despite failing to outgain their opponents on the season.  They actually get outgained on a yards per play basis.  They average 5.6 yards per play on offense and give up 5.9 yards per play on defense.  That is arguably the most important stat when handicapping NFL games. 

The Cowboys have averaged 26.4 points per game in their seven wins here down the stretch.  The offense has taken off with the addition of Cooper.  And the Cowboys will have both G Zack Martin and T Tyron Smith healthy for this game after they sat out last week.  And Zeke Elliott will be as healthy as he’s been after resting last week as well. 

The Seahawks have some injury questions along the offensive line with both T Duane Brown and G J.R. Sweezy questionable for this game.  The Seahawks also played their starters last week, and their performance was a lot more underwhelming.  They needed a last-second field goal to beat the awful Arizona Cardinals 27-24 as 14.5-point home favorites.  That was a Cardinals team that had lost their previous three games by 22, 26 and 14 points and finished 3-13 on the season.  The Seahawks also only beat the Cardinals 20-17 on the road earlier this season as well. 

Seattle went just 4-4 on the road this season.  One of those wins was on a neutral against Oakland, so they only won three true road games.  One was against the Cardinals, another was a fluky 30-27 win at Carolina in which they trailed the entire game, and the other was off their bye week in a great spot for them against the Lions. 

Dallas is a great home team.  The Cowboys are 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game at home this year.  The Cowboys have an elite defense that gives up 20.2 points per game overall and 18.5 points per game at home. 

This is a great matchup for the Cowboys’ defense.  They are 5th in the NFL against the run, giving up 94.6 rushing yards per game.  They are also 4th in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt (3.8) allowed.  That bodes well for them going up against a Seahawks team that leads the NFL in rushing at 160.0 yards per game. 

The Cowboys figure to feed Zeke Elliott a ton in this game.  Their running game is still their bread and butter, especially with a healthy offensive line.  The Cowboys are 10th in rushing offense at 122.7 rushing yards per game while also averaging 4.5 yards per carry.  Well, the Seahawks rank 27th in yards per carry (4.9) allowed this season.  It’s also a great matchup for the Dallas offense. 

The Cowboys played the much tougher schedule this season.  According to Sagarin, the Cowboys played the 11th-toughest schedule, while the Seahawks played the 25th.  The team that played the tougher schedule according to Sagarin has gone 41-17-1 ATS since 2002 in Wild Card games.  If the difference is more than 10, the team that played the tougher schedule is cashing over 80% since 2002. 

Dallas is 6-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game this season.  The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by 8.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game.  The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff games.  Bet the Cowboys Saturday.

15* Colts/Titans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Indianapolis -3 

The Indianapolis Colts are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now.  They are 8-1 in their last nine games overall, impressively rebounding from a 1-5 start.  They are now on the verge of making the playoffs.  A win and they’re in, while a loss and they’re out.  It’s that simple for them here.  And they’ve fought too hard to blow this opportunity now. 

There has been nothing lucky about this run for the Colts.  In fact, they have outgained 11 of their last 12 opponents, which is the sign of an elite team.  Their defense is playing as well as it has in years, and Andrew Luck is moving the chains and putting points on the board.  There’s no question the Colts have the edge on offense in this one, scoring 26.7 points and averaging 382.9 yards per game this season. 

While the Titans also have a good defense, their offense is dreadful.  They rank 26th in total offense at 316.0 yards per game.  They are also 26th in scoring offense at 19.5 points per game.  And their job gets even more difficult on offense this week with the injury to Marcus Mariota.  He was knocked out of the game against the Redskins last week, and now Blaine Gabbert will be the starting quarterback.  I certainly don’t trust him to perform well in this huge game with their season on the line. 

I trust Andrew Luck a lot more.  Luck is 10-0 in his 10 career starts against the Titans, which includes their 38-10 victory over Tennessee on November 18th when Luck went 23-of-29 passing for 297 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions.  His dominance of the Titans continues as he improves to 11-0 against the Titans with a win and cover Sunday night. 

Teams with a win percentage of 51% to 60% are 1-12 ATS in games with a line of +3 to -3 since the start of the 2009 season when facing an opponent that beat them by 14 or more points earlier in the season.  The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Titans are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday. 

20* Bears/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota -4 

I think the Chicago Bears are in a precarious situation here.  Yes, they are still alive for the No. 2 seed and  first-round bye, but they’re not in control of their own destiny.  They would need the Rams to lose to the 49ers and to beat the Vikings to get the No. 2 seed.  Well, the Rams are double-digit favorites over the 49ers at home this week, so players and coaches alike know that deep down inside they don’t have much of a chance. 

It’s kind of a free roll here on Minnesota.  We know the Vikings are going to be max motivated needing a win to get in the playoffs.  If they lose, the Eagles would only need to beat the Redskins this week to overtake them.  That’s likely to happen since the Eagles are 7-point favorites this week over the Redskins.  So it’s essentially a must-win game for the Vikings. 

And the Vikings have performed well in must-win mode over the last two weeks.  They throttled the Dolphins 41-17 at home, and beat the Lions 27-9 on the road.  Their offense has taken off since firing offensive coordinator DiFelippo prior to the Miami game.  And their defense has held the Dolphins and Lions to just 13 points per game and 208 yards per game the last two weeks.  This is still an elite defense, and I certainly trust the Vikings’ offense more than that of Chicago. 

The reason it’s a precarious situation for the Bears is also because they could look up at halftime and see the Rams beating the 49ers by two touchdowns or more.  If that’s the case, they could pull their starters in the second half.  They could also pull their starters if they get behind Minnesota big early.  It’s more important for them to be rested for the wild card game next week than it is for them to go ‘all in’ to try and win this game.  I don’t expect them to, contrary to what head coach Matt Nagy may tell the media leading up to this game. 

The Vikings have had one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL over the past few seasons.  They are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games, including 29-11 ATS under current head coach Mike Zimmer.  The Vikings are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, winning by 13.6 points per game on average in this spotl.  The home team is 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  Minnesota has won six straight home meetings with Chicago, including the last three by a whopping 20.1 points per game.  Take the Vikings Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo Bills -3.5 

You could make the argument that the Bills are playing as well as anyone in the NFL down the stretch.  The Bills have outgained their last seven opponents by a total of 578 yards, or by an average of 83 yards per game.  They rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense this season, and they’ve been competitive ever since Josh Allen returned from injury. 

Buffalo has shown up every week Allen has been under center, and they’ll certainly show up in Week 17.  Especially since they want revenge from a fluky 17-21 loss at Miami on December 2nd in their first meeting this season.  The Bills dominated that game, outgaining the Dolphins 415 to 175, or by 240 total yards.  But they found a way to lose.  This time around, I expect them to dominate the box score and the scoreboard in the rematch in Buffalo. 

Miami is coming off a dream-crushing loss to the Jaguars last week at home by 10 points.  That followed up a 24-point road loss to the Vikings.  The loss to the Jaguars officially eliminated them from playoff contention.  I don’t even expect the Dolphins to show up this week as they’ll suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that loss to the Jaguars. 

Miami is also a warm weather team that has to now go play in the cold, which will not go well for them.  It’s expected to be below freezing in Buffalo on Sunday.  It’s a Dolphins team that has also one of the most fraudulent seven-win teams I can remember.  They are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game on the season.  Their seven wins have all come by 8 points or less, or by one score.  And seven of their eight losses have come by 10 points or more.  They have simply been lucky in close games this year.  I don’t expect this game to be close at all. 

The Dolphins are 6-2 at home this season compared to just 1-6 on the road.  They have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NFL.  They haven’t even been competitive on the road, going 2-5 ATS in their seven road games while getting outscored by a whopping 14.0 points per game, and outgained by 131.9 yards per game.  Buffalo is 17-9 SU & 16-10 ATS in its last 26 home meetings with Miami. 

Miami is 1-8 ATS in road games off a home game over the last two seasons, losing by 20 points per game on average in this spot.  The Dolphins are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Buffalo has gone 5-1 ATS in its six most recent home meetings with Miami.  The favorite is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Bet the Bills Sunday. 

20* Broncos/Raiders MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland +3 

The Oakland Raiders should not be home underdogs to the Denver Broncos tonight.  The Raiders have shown that they are going to show up every week and try to win games here down the stretch, and they will certainly show up for this rare primetime opportunity on National TV on Monday Night Football.  Especially since they are facing a hated rival in the Broncos. 

The Oakland Coliseum was built specifically for the Raiders in the mid-1960’s, but Monday night’s game against the Broncos might be the Raiders’ last game there.  Owner Mark Davis is looking for another venue for his team next season.  So you have to think that these Oakland players want to send their fans out with one final taste of victory tonight. 

“I’ve spent five years playing in the stadium and we have people talking trash about it, but I love it,” said quarterback Derek Carr.  “It’s ours. It has been fun, and that fact that it could be the last game is crazy.  When that times comes, we’ll enjoy it.” 

“I get emotional about it,” head coach Jon Gruden told reporters this week. “Hopefully, we get it resolved to where we can continue to play here next season.  It’s going to be a great atmosphere, Monday night, Christmas Eve, Denver coming to town.  I get excited thinking about it." 

The Raiders want to avenge their 19-20 loss at Denver in their first meeting this season in which Oakland blew a 12-0 halftime lead and should have won the game.  That was a much better Broncos team than the version we have now here down the stretch.  And the Broncos were 5.5-point favorites in that game at home, so if you flip home field, this line should be close to a PK if not the Raiders favored.  I actually think the Raiders should be favored by 3 given what has transpired since that first meeting. 

Jon Gruden clearly has not lost this team.  The Raiders have shown up each of the last five weeks and played hard.  They won at Arizona five weeks ago, deserved to lose 17-20 to the Ravens on the road but gave up two non-offensive touchdowns and lost by 17, hung tough in a 33-40 home loss to the Chiefs as 14-point dogs, upset the Steelers at home as 10-point dogs, and then had a 14-point loss to the Bengals last week in a game that was much closer than the final score.  And it was an obvious letdown spot for the Raiders off their huge win over the Steelers the week prior.  They’ll bounce back this week against a division rival in Denver. 

I’ve correctly faded the Broncos in each of their last two games for many of the same reasons.  The Broncos failed to cover as 3-point road favorites in a 14-20 upset loss at San Francisco.  And last week they were upset at home by the Cleveland Browns.  Key injuries are a big reason I’ve been fading the Broncos and they remain a big problem for them. 

The most important injury was losing top WR Emmanuel Sanders prior to the 49ers game with a torn ACL.  His loss was magnified by the fact that they traded away their other top receiver in DeMaryius Thomas to the Texans.  The Broncos simply don’t have any weapons left, and their offense has been bogged down because of it.  And defensively, they lost top CB Chris Harris also prior to that 49ers game.  And the injuries keep piling up for the Broncos’ defense this week as they will be without SS Su’a Cravens and LB Shane Ray. 

I also think this is a situation where the wind has been lifted out from underneath the Broncos’ sails.  They had a chance to make the playoffs after winning three straight to get to .500, and they were still alive even after the loss to the 49ers.  But heartbreaking one-point loss to the Browns last week has officially eliminated them from contention.  As is often the case, teams don’t even show up the week after their were eliminated from postseason contention.  That could easily be the case for Denver this week even though this is a primetime game, especially knowing that head coach Vance Joseph is a dead man walking. 

Denver is 0-6 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the past three seasons.  The Broncos are losing by 18.6 points on average in this spot.  Denver is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game over the past two seasons.  The Broncos are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Raiders Monday. 

15* Chiefs/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 56

As the weather has gotten colder, games have become more and more low scoring. And it’s expected to be in the 40’s in Seattle tonight with a 40% chance of rain as well.  While the weather is a big factor to these lower scoring games at the end of the season, the fact that both teams have so much film on one another is ultimately the bigger factor.  It’s just easier on the defenses to stop opposing offenses because they know what to expect at this point in the season. 

The Chiefs have certainly become less potent offensively here down the stretch.  They failed to top 28 points in each of their last two games, and thy were held to just 294 total yards by the Chargers last week.  Now, a lot of this has to do with the weapons the Chiefs are missing.  They don’t have anyone to replace what Kareem Hunt brings to the offense, and top backup Spencer Ware remains out.  Also out is one of their top receivers in Sammy Watkins.  Mahomes just doesn’t have the same weapons he did for most of the season as he was lighting up the NFL. 

I think the Seahawks can control the pace of this game with their running game, which has been one of the best in the NFL.  They have rushed for 154 or more yards in 10 of their last 11 games, while passing for 242 or fewer yards in all but one game this season.  They have been held to less than 205 or fewer passing yards in nine of their 14 games this year, and 217 or fewer in 11 of 14.  Their offensive scheme keeps the clock running, and the Seahawks play at one of the slowest paces in the league.  They know controlling time of possession is their best chance to beat the Chiefs tonight. 

The Seahawks have held six of their last 12 opponents to 17 or fewer points.  They have a good defense that is giving up just 20.9 points per game on the season, and 19.7 points per game at home.  And the Chiefs have actually improved quite a bit defensively here down the stretch themselves.  They have held seven of their last 11 opponents to 24 or fewer points, and I certainly think they can do the same here against this slow, vanilla Seahawks offense. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 49.5 or higher (Kansas City) - after going over the total by 35 or more points combined in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 54-23 (70.1%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven Week 16 games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* Steelers/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pittsburgh +7 

With the Ravens winning yesterday, the Steelers need this game like blood.  A loss and the Ravens would overtake the Steelers for first place in the AFC North.  And the Ravens host the Browns next week, so it would likely been the end of the Steelers if they lose this game.  They’d miss the playoffs entirely.  As a result, they’ll be max motivated today against the Saints. 

The Steelers come in with confidence after getting the monkey off their back in an impressive 17-10 win over the Patriots.  And this is a Steelers team that simply does not get blown out.  Four of their five losses this season have come by a touchdown or less.  I expect them to stay within a touchdown of the Saints, and likely pull off the upset today with what’s at stake for them. 

Since the Rams lost last week to the Eagles, the Saints essentially have a two-game lead over the Rams for the No. 1 seed because they beat them head-to-head.  And the Saints host the Panthers next week, so they know that even if they lose this game they have that gimme game against a Carolina team that will likely have quit by that point to clinch the No. 1 seed.  Knowing they have that in their hip pocket, I do not expect the Saints to be max motivated this week. 

Even if they were to be, the Saints just aren’t playing well enough right now to be this heavily favored against a very good Pittsburgh team.  Offensively, the Saints are broken right now.  They are averaging just 283 yards per game in their last four games.  They haven’t topped 346 yards in any of those games.  Drew Brees just doesn’t have any weapons outside Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, and it’s really starting to show.  And quietly, they have three offensive linemen starters on the injury report.  They’ll be missing G Jermon Bushrod, and both T Terron Armstead (shoulder) and C Max Unger (concussion) won’t be at 100% this week. 

I think too much is being made of the loss of James Connor.  He won’t play this week, but the Steelers have just been able to plug and play at running back.  And Jalen Samuels had 142 rushing yards and 172 yards from scrimmage last week against the Patriots.  He is getting comfortable in this offense, and he’s a real weapon dating back to his time with NC State in college both as a runner and receiver. 

The Steelers’ offense gets a lot of the attention for averaging 27.4 points and 405.8 yards per game this season.  But it’s the defense that really makes the Steelers a Super Bowl contender.  They have made huge strides on that side of the ball over the past two seasons, especially this year.  They are holding opponents to 22.6 points and 333.7 yards per game this season, including 21.3 points and 318.6 yards per game on the road.  The Steelers are outgaining their opponents by 72 yards per game this year, the sign of an elite team.   

The Steelers are outgaining their opponents by 0.9 yards per play (6.2 offensive, 5.3 defense) while the Saints are only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play (6.0 offense, 5.7 defense).  Yards per play is one of the most important stats in the NFL and it’s a great indicator of how good a team really is. 

Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games this season.  The Steelers are 42-21 ATS in their last 63 games when playing against a top-level team that wins greater than 75% of their games.  Pittsburgh is 19-6-2 ATS in its last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

Plays on road teams (Pittsburgh) - who average 265-plus passing yards per game against a poor passing defense that gives up 230-265 PYPG, after allowing 7 or more YPA in two straight games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

Note: I took the only +7 option available on the site at extra juice.  At the time I released the pick, the line was +6.5 in most places, including at my book.  I bought the 1/2 point on the Steelers to +7 personally on my bet.  I suggest you do the same if your line is 6.5.  If not just bet it at +6, or even down to +4.5.  I think this line should be 4 at most.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco 49ers +5 

The Chicago Bears are coming off back-to-back victories that would rank right up there as two of their most significant wins this century.  They upset the Rams at home two weeks ago, then clinched their first division title since 2010 with their win over the hated Packers last week.  They let their guard down and celebrated harder than they’ve celebrated in a long time in the locker room and likely went out on the town after that win.  It’s only human nature that they’d suffer a letdown this week off two huge wins at home. 

But now the Bears hit the road, where they are just 3-3 this season with losses to the likes of the Giants and Dolphins this season.  They are 7-1 at home, so there is a big home-road split.  I know the Bears are still alive for the No. 2 seed, but they would need the Rams to lose at least one game over the final two weeks to have a chance.  The Rams are 14.5-point favorites over the Cardinals this week and will be double-digit home favorites over the 49ers next week.  The Bears realize it’s unrealistic. 

The 49ers’ December run continues.  They won their final five games last season, and now they are making a run at the end of this season, too.  The 49ers upset the Broncos 20-14 at home two weeks ago and then upset the Seahawks 26-23 at home last week.  I was on the 49ers in both those games, and I’m on them again this week as they are catching even more points as 5-point home dogs to the Bears. 

The reason to like the 49ers is simple.  They are much better than their 4-10 record would indicate.  In fact, the 49ers are actually outgaining their opponents by 18.8 yards per game this season.  That’s the sign of a .500 or better team, not one that currently sits at 4-10.  And just as they did at the end of last season, this team has not quit.  Kyle Shanahan is here to stay, so his players will go to war from him every week.  And they clearly seem to love him to play this hard for him to close out the season two straight years when things went so bad for the first 3/4 of the season both times. 

Nick Mullens is proving that he can be a backup quarterback in this league, if not a starter by how quickly he has grasped Shanahan’s system and excelled in it.  Mullens is completing 64.5% of his passes for 1,754 yards with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 8.6 per attempt.  He is putting up way better numbers than C.J. Beathard, and actually better numbers than Jimmy G.  Mullens is averaging 292.3 passing yards per game in his six games this season.   

And he should have some success against a Bears defense that will be missing two key players that got injured last week in the win over the Packers.  SS Eddie Jackson and LB Aaron Lynch are both out, as is CB Bryce Callahan.  The loss of Jackson is particularly a problem for the Bears.  He was named to the Pro Bowl earlier this week, and he’s third in the NFL with six interceptions this season, two of which he has returned for touchdowns.  Jackson is the leader of the secondary and will be missed. 

Chicago is 2-12 ATS in road games when the total is 42.5 to 49 over the last three seasons.  The Bears are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 December road games.  Chicago is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 road games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills +14.5 

The Buffalo Bills have been flying under the radar this season.  The betting public never wants anything to do with them, so they go unnoticed.  But when you really did deep into the numbers, the Bills have been one of the best teams in the NFL since Josh Allen returned from injury. 

Indeed, the Bills have outgained their last six opponents by a combined 679 yards.  That’s an average of 113.2 yards per game, which is the sign of an elite team.  But because they’ve gone just 3-3 during this stretch, they are way undervalued.  And getting them as two-touchdown underdogs to the Patriots Sunday is an absolute gift. 

Allen actually leads the team in rushing with 506 yards, 6.7 per carry and six touchdowns this season.  He is arguably the best dual-threat QB in the league right now.  A big reason for him leading the team is that LeSean McCoy has been injured and missed the past few games.  But the offense gets a big boost this week with McCoy returning from injury to try and take down the Patriots.  It’s a sign that this team is max motivated against their division rival the fact that they aren’t sitting McCoy for the rest of the season when they easily could have. 

But what makes me really like this Bills team and what makes me back them almost every single week is their defense.  The Bills actually have the league’s 2nd best defense in the NFL this season.  They give up 292.2 yards per game on the season, which is nearly 19 yards less than the third-place Bears.  But when everyone talks about the league’s best defenses, they only mention the Ravens and Bears.  That’s why the Bills are consistently undervalued because the fact that they’re 2nd goes completely unnoticed by most. 

The Patriots’ stranglehold on the AFC may be coming to an end this year.  They wouldn’t lose like they have here down the stretch in year’s past with what has been at stake.  The Patriots are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 24 at Tennessee as 6.5-point favorites, were upset at Miami as 9-point favorites, and were upset at Pittsburgh as 2.5-point favorites.  They were also very fortunate to cover agains the Jets in a 14-point win as 13-point favorites. 

I think fatigue is taking its toll on the Patriots.  They will now be in their 5th different city in six weeks with a ton of travel due to this road-heavy schedule.  Now they are back home this week, and that’s going to be a distraction with all the things the players have to do to get ready for Christmas with their families.  Plus, they just lost their best weapon in Josh Gordon, who was once again suspended by the league.  Gordon leads the team with 720 receiving yards and 18 yards per reception.  Without him, their offense is very vanilla, especially with Rob Gronkowski clearly on the downside of his career. 

Buffalo will find some success running against this New England defense.  The Bills are rushing for 174 yards per game in their last five games, and a large portion of that has been Allen.  Now with McCoy back, they should be even more potent in the running game.  And the Patriots have not been good against the run the past two weeks, giving up 173.5 rushing yards per game and a whopping 7.5 yards per carry to the Dolphins and Steelers. 

I think the fact that New England won 25-6 in Buffalo earlier this season is making this number higher than it should be.  Well, Buffalo was playing with Derek Anderson in that game and not Allen.  And it was an 18-6 game with the Bills in the red zone before Anderson threw a pick-six that turned what would have been a 5-point game into a 19-point game.  It was a very misleading final as the Patriots only outgained the Bills by 46 yards.  It will be a much more competitive game with Allen in the second meeting Sunday. 

Plays against any team (New England) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1983.  Buffalo is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games off three or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Bills deserved to cover in all three of those games, but since they didn’t they are way undervalued right now.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

Note: I realize the line is 13.5 in most places, but 14 wasn't an option for me, so I took the 14.5 at extra juice on the site.  I personally bought the 1/2 point on the Bills to +14 on my bet and I suggest you do the same if it's an option for you.  Otherwise just bet it at +13.5.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 

Don’t look now, but the Eagles are just a half-game back of the Vikings for the 6th and final wild card spot in the NFC.  They have put themselves in this position by winning three of their last four games with their only loss coming at Dallas in overtime.  The defending Super Bowl champs are starting to show some serious resilience here down the stretch as they fight for their playoff lives. 

And the Eagles certainly come into this home game against the Houston Texans with a ton of momentum.  That’s because they upset the Rams 30-23 on the road as 13.5-point underdogs last week.  There was nothing fluky about it either as they dominated from start to finish and basically led the entire way.   

The loss of Carson Wentz was clearly overblown as the Eagles went from 8-point dogs to 13.5-point dogs last week once it was announced Wentz would be out.  In the Eagles’ locker room, they knew they had a chance to win that game with Nick Foles, and players rallied around him.  Foles delivered a big performance, completing 24-of-31 passes for 270 yards.  He utilizes Alshon Jeffery’s talents better than Wentz does because Jeffery is a jump-ball receiver.  Foles connected on all eight passes attempts to Jeffery for 160 yards. 

The Texans are grossly overvalued right now due to winning nine of their last 10 games overall coming in.  They’ve won every coin flip during this stretch, including their extremely lucky push as 7-point favorites at the New York Jets last week.  They trailed that game 19-22 with four minutes left, only to score 10 points the rest of the way to win 29-22.  The Jets turned it over on downs deep in their own territory, and the Texans tacked on a field goal that made the final margin 7 points.  The Eagles will offer a lot more resistance than the Jets did last week. 

This is a Texans team that is missing some key playmakers on offense.  Both RB Lamar Miller and WR Keke Coutee are out.  Miller leads the team with 917 rushing yards and 4.8 per carry, and it’s a big downgrade to backup Alfred Blue, who is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on his 143 attempts.  Coutee is the team’s third-leading receiver and has been productive when healthy.  Not to mention, star receiver DeAndre Hopkins was noticeably hobbled by an ankle injury suffered on the game-winning TD catch against the Jets last week.  Not having him at 100% is a problem for the Texans. 

Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Texans are 1-8-1 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season over the past three seasons.  Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games played on a grass field.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

Plays home favorites (Philadelphia) - after having won three of their last four games against an opponent that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against road underdogs or PK (Houston) - hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 years.  Take the Eagles Sunday. 

20* Redskins/Titans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington +10.5 

I won with the Redskins as a premium pick last week.  They delivered for me with an outright upset of the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road as 7.5-point dogs.  And I’m on them again for many of the same reasons again this week as they are catching even more points as 10.5-point road dogs at Tennessee. 

Washington players knew they had no chance with Mark Sanchez at quarterback.  They were down to their third-stringer Sanchez after both Alex Smith and Colt McCoy went down with injuries in consecutive weeks.  And they played terrible against the Eagles once Sanchez took over, then even worse the next week in a blowout loss to the Giants as Sanchez basically gift-wrapped the Giants that win with turnovers. 

However, the Redskins signed Josh Johnson, and he took over for Sanchez after they were trailing the Giants 40-0.  Johnson sparked this team in the second half as they outscored the Giants 16-0 after he took over.  And then Johnson led them to victory last week against the Jaguars.  This guy is a lot better than he gets credit for.  Johnson is completing 65.9% of his passes and averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.  He also gives the Redskins a dual-threat as he has rushed for 94 yards on 16 attempts and a score while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. 

The Titans come into this game getting a lot of love due to their three-game winning streak, and it’s time to ‘sell high’ on them after back-to-back blowout wins over the Jaguars and Giants.  I just don’t think the Titans can be laying double-digits with an offense that ranks 27th in the NFL in scoring at just 19.1 points per game.  Derrick Henry is playing well the last two weeks, but they are averaging just 124 passing yards per game their past two games.   

The Redskins held the Jaguars to 192 yards last week and still have a very good defense, especially when they are locked in and focused.  And they have played their best on the road, giving up just 19.6 points per game in their seven road games this year.  I think they can hold Marcus Mariota in check, and Johnson will make enough plays for them to keep this a one-score game.  Johnson should have some success against a banged-up Titans secondary that just lost their top corner in Logan Ryan to a season-ending injury last week, and starting S Kenny Vaccaro is in concussion protocol and highly questionable. 

Tennessee is the team that is getting treated like they are in a must-win situation, but not Washington here with this 10.5-point spread.  But in reality, both teams should be equally motivated.  Washington is only a half-game back in the wild card race in the NFC, while Tennessee is tied with Indy and Baltimore for the final wild card spot in the AFC, but loses the tiebreaker to both currently.  And I have no doubt that win over the Jaguars has injected new life into this Redskins team as they really think they have a shot. 

Plays on road teams (Washington) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in December games are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Redskins are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six Week 16 games.  The Titans are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine Week 16 games.  The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright upsets.  Bet the Redskins Saturday. 

20* Saints/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +6.5 

The Carolina Panthers opened 6-2 and were becoming a pretty big public team.  But now the public has been burnt by the Panthers week after week, and they’re going to be off of them now.  It’s certainly time to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers, who have now lost five consecutive games despite being favored in four of the five. 

When you dig deeper into the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Panthers are better than their 6-7 record.  In fact, the Panthers have now outgained eight of their last nine opponents.  They are outgaining opponents by 25.5 yards per game on the season.  That’s the sign of a good team, not one that currently has a losing record heading into Week 15. 

Most would believe the Panthers are ready to quit, but I beg to differ.  Just look at the standings and it’s easy to see that the Panthers are still very much alive to make the playoffs.  They sit at 6-7, just a half-game back of the 6-6-1 Vikings for the final wild card spot in the NFC.  And their closest contenders in the Redskins (6-7) and Eagles (6-7) both have huge injury issues, and both are massive road underdogs this week. 

Plus, Cam Newton received a broom from an anonymous person.  That broom signifies the season sweep the Saints put on them last year.  They won both regular season meetings, plus beat the Panthers 31-26 at home in the playoffs.  Newton already made his comments about the broom, and there’s no question he and the rest of his teammates want some serious revenge here at home Monday night. 

The Saints are ripe for the taking right now.  They just aren’t playing well at all over the past three weeks against the Falcons, Cowboys and Bucs.  They were outgained by 54 yards at home by the Falcons, by 132 yards by the Cowboys in a 10-13 road loss, and they only outgained the Bucs by 19 yards last week.  They were fortunate to win that game after trailing 14-0. 

The most staggering numbers are the poor offensive numbers the Saints are putting up.  Drew Brees may be starting to show his age, and the Saints’ lack of weapons outside Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are starting to catch up with them.  They were held to 312 total yards by a bad Falcons defense, to just 176 yards by a good Cowboys defense, and to just 298 yards against a bad Bucs defense.  That’s an average of just 262 yards per game in their last three games.   

The Saints can’t be expected to go on the road and win by a TD or more to cover this inflated 6.5-point spread with this kind of an offense.  And the Panthers still have a very good defense that is capable of slowing down Brees and company, especially outdoors on grass.  This is also an improved Carolina offense that is averaging 378 yards per game this season. 

The Panthers have a big home/road split this season.  While they are just 1-6 on the road, they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home and outscoring opponents by 7.6 points per game.  Their offense has exploded for 30.8 points per game at home this year.  Their only home loss came to the Seahawks by a field goal 27-30 in a game in which they controlled the whole way until giving up a 35-yard TD pass on 4th and long with three minutes left to tie it, and then a field goal with no time left on the clock. 

Plays against road teams (New Orleans) - who outscore their opponents by 10 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Carolina is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.  Ron Rivera is 22-6 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Carolina.  The Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on on San Francisco 49ers +7 

I won with the 49ers in their upset win over the Broncos last week, and I’m back on them again this week.  I got an early +7 at -130 on them when the line was +6 mostly everywhere.  I thought it was worth it to pay the extra juice for the +7 at that point.  But now the line has dropped all the way down to Seattle -3.5 in most places, and I still recommend a play on the 49ers at +3 or better.  Obviously bet more if you got +6 or better early, and bet less if you got +3 or +3.5 late. 

This has been the biggest line move in the NFL this week, and it’s warranted.  The 49ers never should have been close to a TD underdog to the Seahawks.  In fact, I think they win this game outright.  The Seahawks are working on a short week after their huge win over the Vikings on Monday Night Football.  They will be less prepared and less rested than the 49ers will be. 

That win over the Vikings basically locked the Seahawks into the No. 5 seed in the NFC.  They now have a 99% chance of making the playoffs.  They can’t win the division, either, as the Rams clinched that already with their two head-to-head wins over the Seahawks.  So Seattle is just stuck in no-man’s land here just playing out the string and anticipating their trip to the playoffs.  The hard work is done.  And they certainly could be looking ahead to their huge showdown with the Chiefs next week.

The Seahawks are overvalued after winning four straight games coming in and going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  But many of those were misleading wins, or wins they had no business getting.  In fact, the Seahawks have been outgained in five of their last six games overall.  That’s not the sign of a good team.  The only game they won the yardage battle was their 27-24 comeback win over the Packers at home in which they only outgained Green Bay by 19 yards. 

Meanwhile, the 49ers are grossly undervalued due to their 3-10 record.  They are much better than that as they have now outgained their opponents by 296 yards on the season, and by an average of 23 yards per game.  And they are playing their best football of the season coming in.  The 49ers have outgained four of their last five opponents by a combined 426 yards and by an average of 85.2 yards per game. 

Nick Mullens has more passing yards (746) than any other quarterback in the NFL over the last two weeks, so he is really starting to grasp Kyle Shanahan’s offense.  George Kittle had 210 receiving yards last week and ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards (1,103) by a tight end this season.  And Mullens is getting help with some players who are returning from injury.  RB Matt Breida should be back this week, and WR Marquise Goodwin returned last week after missing two games. 

I love backing teams in division games in the 2nd meeting who just recently lost their first meeting.  The Seahawks just beat the 49ers 43-16 two weeks ago in Seattle.  Well, that was one of the most misleading final scores of the year.  The 49ers gained 452 yards and held the Seahawks to 331 yards, outgaining them by 121 yards for the game.  And the Seahawks got a 98-yard INT return TD in the final minutes that turned what would have been a 13-point game into a 27-point game.  That misleading final score also has the Seahawks overvalued, and you know the 49ers are going to want to exact some revenge here at home. 

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (San Francisco) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team that wins 25% or fewer of their games on the season playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 56-25 (69.1%) ATS since 1983.  Don’t be surprised if the 49ers win this game outright again this week.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Giants -2.5 

The New York Giants played the toughest schedule in the NFL over their first eight games of the season.  It’s no surprise they opened 1-7.  But the schedule has eased up, and they’ve been handling their business since.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall, and they are playing with a ton of confidence right now and showing up every week.  If not for a blown 19-3 lead against the Eagles, they would be on a five-game winning streak. 

The biggest reason for their great play is the improvement on offense. The Giants have averaged 31.4 points per game in their last five games.  They hung 40 points on the Redskins last week even without Odell Beckham Jr.  And Beckham feels a lot better this week and there’s a good chance he returns to the lineup.  And besides Beckham and Landon Collins, the Giants are a very healthy team right now.  Eli Manning knows that these could be his last games as a Giant, and he’s clearly motivated to make the most of it despite their record. 

I think the Titans come in overvalued off their win over the Jaguars last week.  I’ve watched many NFL games, and I haven’t seen many teams quit as blatantly obviously as the Jaguars did.  They didn’t even try to tackle Derrick Henry, and as a result Henry had a career game with 238 rushing yards and four touchdowns.  Defenders simply got out of his way or half-ass attempted to tackle him.  I give the Titans zero credit for that win. 

The Titans have not been good on the road this season.  They are just 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in road games.  They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, averaging just 19.3 points per game on the season.  Their offense has been even worse on the road, scoring just 16.4 points per game an averaging only 306.9 yards per game.  I just don’t trust Marcus Mariota and this offense to score enough points here to win this game against the Giants. 

Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Titans are losing by a whopping 20.2 points per game on average in this spot.  The Titans are 1-10 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons. 

Plays on home favorites (NY Giants) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Giants Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Redskins +7 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are just 4-9 this season.  They can’t be laying a touchdown to the Washington Redskins, or any team for that matter.  Not after what I saw last week against the Titans.  They didn’t even try to tackle Derrick Henry, and he rushed for 238 yards and four touchdowns in a 30-9 win by Tennessee. 

I can say with confidence that the Jaguars have quit.  This is a team that made the AFC Championship Game last year with big expectations coming into the season.  Now, at 4-9 and with nothing to play for, they have simply packed it in.  I don’t see them showing up this week at all, and even if they did they aren’t good enough to cover this 7-point spread. 

Unlike the Jaguars, the Redskins still have a lot to play for.  The Vikings are currently the 6th and final wild card team in the playoffs if the season were to end today at 6-6-1.  Well, the Redskins are 6-7, so they are only a half-game back in the wild card.  As ugly as it’s been of late for the Redskins, they can still look to the standings and realize they have a legit chance of making the playoffs.  And I fully expect them to show up these final three weeks. 

I also think the Redskins are being undervalued this week off their 40-16 loss to the Giants last week.  Well, Mark Sanchez is maybe the worst backup QB in the NFL, and he simply gift-wrapped the Giants several points.  The Redskins trailed that game 40-0 before giving way to Josh Johnson. 

Sure, the Giants probably didn’t try too hard after being up 40-0, but either way I was impressed with what I saw from Johnson.  He outscored the Giants 16-0 the rest of the way after he entered the game.  Johnson finished 11-of-16 passing for 195 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also leading the team with 45 rushing yards and a score on only seven carries.  He averaged 12.2 yards per pass attempt and 6.4 rushing yards per attempt.  Those are elite numbers. 

Well, Johnson will get the start this week as Jay Gruden was impressed enough with what he saw to give him the nod.  And I think the Redskins as a team realize they had no chance of winning games with Sanchez at the held, so the fact that Johnson is starting has re-energized them.  They played hard for him to close out that Giants game, and they’ll play hard for him again this week against a Jaguars team that has quit.  I’ll gladly take the points on the more motivated team here. 

The Redskins get some good news in the injury department this week, too.  Their top playmaker in Jamison Crowder is back healthy and had 87 receiving yards and a score last week.  Josh Doctson had 84 receiving yards last week and should be available this week.  Both starting tackles along the offensive line in Trent Williams and Morgan Moses are both healthy and probable.  That will certainly help Johnson having his two starting tackles protecting him. 

Look for the Redskins to run wild on the Jaguars behind Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson.  The Jaguars did not want to tackle Henry last week, and they certainly don’t want to try and tackle Peterson, either.  This is a Jaguars defense that has really fallen off this season, especially down the stretch.  They have allowed 24 or more points in four of their last six games overall. 

It’s also a Jaguars offense that has really struggled and one that is going through a quarterback controversy with Blake Bortles getting benched in favor of Cody Kessler.  Kessler has led the Jaguars to an average of just 7.5 points per game in his two starts over the past two weeks.  The Jaguars have yet to decide who will be under center, but it won’t matter.  This offense is simply not good enough to be laying 7 points to anyone, especially not against a Redskins defense that has been respectable this season in allowing 22.8 points per game.  The Jaguars average just 16.3 points per game on the season. 

Washington is a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons.  The Redskins are coming back to win by 6.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Jacksonville is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after being outrushed by 100 or more yards in its previous game.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  The Jaguars are 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts -2.5 

I was on the Colts last week in their outright win over the Texans, and I’m right back on them this week as my strongest release of the entire 2018 NFL season.  They have made my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR label for this game against the Dallas Cowboys.  Every factor in this game favors the Colts, and thus getting them as only 2.5-point home favorites is an absolute gift from oddsmakers and the biggest line mistake of the season. 

It mostly comes down to the motivational mismatch in favor of the Colts.  They need this game like they need blood.  There are currently four teams in the AFC tied at 7-6 for the final wild card spot, and the Colts have an outside shot to win the division.  The Colts have put themselves in this position by going 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall, and they aren’t about to let up now that they are so close they can taste the postseason. 

The Cowboys are coming off their ’Super Bowl’, a gutsy 29-23 (OT) home win over the Philadelphia Eagles that all but locked up the division.  After that win, the Cowboys currently have a 99% chance of winning the division.  They would have to go 0-3 and have either the Redskins go 3-0 or the Eagles go 3-0 to not win the division.  Well, the Eagles are double-digit underdogs at the Rams this week and just lost Carson Wentz, and the Redskins are mess with all their injuries and are 7-point road dogs to the Jaguars.  In all reality, the Cowboys have already won the division.  They will suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that win over the Eagles. 

The Colts have outgained nine of their last 10 opponents.  That’s the sign of a really good team and one I want to get my money behind.  Andrew Luck is back to being Andrew Luck, and the Colts have one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.  All of that young talent they’ve drafted over the past several seasons is finally starting to pay off.  They have held their last four opponents to an average of just 15.3 points per game. 

And I really like the matchup for the Colts’ defense.  Their strength is their run defense, which ranks 8th in the NFL in giving up just 102.9 rushing yards per game.  They also rank 5th in the NFL in yards per carry (3.8) allowed.  And they’ve been even better in recent weeks, holding their last five opponents to just 91.8 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry.  They should be able to limit Zeke Elliott, who was hobbled in that win over the Eagles and could have his workload limited after touching the ball 40 times last week.

One hidden advantage here is Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich, the former offensive coordinator in Philadelphia.  The Eagles clearly miss him as their offense has been atrocious this year and terrible on 3rd downs, whereas the Colts are one of the best 3rd down offenses in the NFL.  But Reich knows the personnel in the NFC East, and he’s actually gone 2-0 ATS against NFC East teams this season, beating the Redskins outright and covering in a last-second loss to the Eagles.  And he certainly knows Dallas’ personnel as well as it hasn’t changed much from last year.  He’ll come up with a game plan to beat their defense, while also helping his defensive coaches with the Cowboys’ offense.

I think the Cowboys are starting to be overvalued now this week after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  I just don’t think they show up at all this week.  The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record.  Plays on home favorites (Indianapolis) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Colts Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills -2.5 

The Bills really should be in the midst of a four-game winning streak right now.  But since they’re not and actually failed to cover the closing line each of the last two weeks, I think they are undervalued now.  Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off a misleading 17-3 win at Arizona last week, and they’ve overvalued. 

Two weeks ago, the Bills outgained the Dolphins by 240 yards and lost 17-21 as 3.5-point dogs.  Then last week, the Bills outgained the Jets by 120 yards and lost 23-27 as 4.5-point home favorites.  They led that Jets game 14-3 and never trailed until the final minute.  It’s two games they should have won but they didn’t, and they won their previous two games against the the Jets and Jaguars by a combined 34 points.  In fact, the Bills have outgained four of their last five opponents by a combined 680 yards, or by an average of 136 yards per game.  That’s the sign of an elite team. 

The Bills have been playing much better football ever since Josh Allen returned to the lineup.  Allen has actually rushed for 99 or more yards in three consecutive games, which is unheard of in today’s NFL.  And if his receivers quit dropping passes, he’d be putting up even better numbers through the air.  After his receivers let him down last week, I think they’ll be extra focused to make amends for their quarterback this week. 

Buffalo has an elite defense, which is my favorite thing about this team.  They actually rank 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 290.6 yards per game.  Not too many people saw that coming heading into the season.  There’s nothing fluky about it because they are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play (4.8) allowed.  They will shut down the Lions this week. 

Detroit is just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  And really the Lions are fortunate to even have two wins during this stretch.  They have been outgained in six of their last seven games, and eight of their last 10 games overall.  That’s the sign of a bad team. 

Matthew Stafford looks lost ever since trading Golden Tate and having Marvin Jones go down to injury.  There just aren’t any playmakers left on this team.  The score showed Detroit winning 17-3 against Arizona last week, but they were outgained by the Cardinals and managed just 218 total yards.  The Lions managed only 96 passing yards on 23 attempts.  This offense has been dreadful, and it won’t get any easier against the Bills this week. 

Detroit is a dome team that certainly won’t enjoy the cold weather this late in the year in Buffalo.  The Lions don’t have anything to play for, and I trust this young Bills team with a rookie quarterback to keep showing up because they have showed up every week that Allen has been under center.  They’re the better team, and they’re only laying 2.5 points here at home.  Sign me up. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Detroit) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 6 points or less are 36-12 (75%) ATS since 1983.  The Lions are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games off a double-digit road win.  The Bills are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  Detroit is 17-36-1 ATS in its last 54 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game.  Take the Bills Sunday.

15* Browns/Broncos AFC ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +3 

I faded the Broncos last week and won the 49ers.  And I’m fading them again this week for many of the same reasons.  But a new reason popped up this week.  That loss crushed Denver’s playoff hopes.  They now have just a 5% chance of making the playoffs, and they are four teams ahead of them now fighting for that final wild card spot.  In other words, their season is over, and I think they suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that defeat. 

Denver is overvalued right now due to going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  But two of those wins were fluky, and they beat up on an injury-riddled Bengals team in their only legit win.  In fact, the Broncos have been outgained by a total of 440 yards in their last four games, or by an average of 110 yards per game.  With stats like that they should be 0-4 and 1-3 at best. 

But the biggest reason I faded the Broncos last week was because they lost two key players to injury the previous week.  Emmanuel Sanders was lost to a season-ending Achilles injury.  The loss of Sanders was huge because they already traded away Demaryius Thomas.  Sanders was having a career season with 71 receptions for 868 yards and four touchdowns in 12 games.  They just don’t have many playmakers left at receiver for Case Keenum. 

On defense, the loss of Chris Harris is a big one.  He is their top cover corner.  San Francisco 3rd-string quarterback Nick Mullens lit up this Denver defense for 332 passing yards and two touchdowns.  And you can bet that Baker Mayfield, who is in line to win Rookie of the Year honors, will light them up as well.  The Broncos also have a couple other defensive backs that have shown up on the injury report this week. 

Cleveland comes in playing very well, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Unlike Denver, there hasn’t been anything fluky about the Browns’ run.  They have outgained their last four opponents in cumulative total yards, and the offense is hitting its stride by scoring 26 or more points in all three wins behind the guidance of new coordinator Freddie Kitchens.  The only exception was the loss at Houston, but the Browns had a TD called back and also fumbled through the end zone for a touchdown.  They have 428 total yards against that good Houston defense. 

The Browns are looking up at the AFC North standings right now and feeling like they have a legit chance to win the division.  And belief can go a long way in this league.  And they get to play on Saturday, so they won’t get to see the results from Sunday yet.  They’ll be ‘all in’ for this game, unlike Denver.  The Browns trail the Steelers by two games, but the Steelers are underdogs this week and they’ll be underdogs to the Saints next week.  And though they also trail the Ravens by 1.5 games, they still get to play the Ravens in Week 17, which could ultimately decide the division.  And the Browns host the Bengals next week, so they will have a legit shot of getting to 8-7-1, which could be good enough to win this division. 

Denver is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games following two consecutive road games.  The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after trailing their previous game by 14 points or more at halftime.  Plays against home teams (Denver) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40% to 49%) are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Browns Saturday. 

20* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on UNDER 53 

The Chargers trail the Chiefs by one game in the AFC West standings.  They can move into a first place tie with the Chiefs with a win Thursday night.  It’s safe to say this game will be played close to the vest, especially in a bitter rivalry between these division opponents who are very familiar with one another.  And I think the defenses win out in this one, so I’ll side with the UNDER. 

There’s several reasons to like the UNDER.  The first and most important is that both teams are short on weapons right now.  The Chargers are going to likely be without Melvin Gordon, and backup RB Austin Ekeler is questionable as well.  For the Chiefs, they will be without starting RB Kareem Hunt and backup RB Spencer Ware.  They’ll also be without WR Sammy Watkins, and fellow WR Tyreek Hill was noticeably hobbled with a heel injury against the Ravens on Sunday.  Hill will play tonight, but on a short week I question how productive he’ll be. 

The Ravens were able to slow down the Chiefs last week behind one of the best defenses in the NFL.  And the Chargers have the ability to do the same thing.  This is a Chargers defense that is giving up just 16.7 PPG over their last nine games.  Since getting Joey Bosa back from injury, they’ve been even better.  Bosa and Melvin Ingram combine for arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL. 

The Chiefs do not have a good defense, but it’s worth noting they have been able to hold teams in check in recent weeks as well.  In fact, the Chiefs have allowed 23 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games overall. I like their chances of holding the Chargers to 23 or fewer tonight as well.  It’s going to be cold and there’s a chance of rain today in Kansas City.  The UNDER is 48-21-1 in Chiefs last 70 home games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Chargers last nine vs. AFC West opponents. 

The Chargers are 10-1 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Kansas City is 9-0 UNDER In home games vs. teams who allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Los Angeles is 10-1 UNDER in December games over the last three seasons.  The Chargers are 7-0 UNDER off three or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  These four trends combine for a 36-2 system backing the UNDER tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Vikings/Seahawks MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 45.5 

This is essentially a play-in game for the playoffs.  It will have a playoff atmosphere as the Seahawks are 7-5 and the Vikings are 6-5-1, both fighting to earn a wild card spot.  In the case of the Vikings, they’re still alive to win the NFC North.  I think this game is played close to the vest, and I think points will be very hard to come by as both of these defenses control this game. 

I also like the fact that both teams will be looking to run the football, which will keep the clock moving.  The Seahawks have really become a run-heavy team, which has been key to their success.  They have rushed 28 or more times in 10 consecutive games now.  They have more rushing attempts than pass attempts in eight of those 10 games. 

Well, the Vikings have been a great defense overall, and especially against the run.  They rank 7th in rushing defense, giving up just 99.2 yards per game on the ground.  The Vikings are also tied for 2nd in rushing yards per attempt (3.7) allowed this season.  They’ll be able to shut down this Seahawks offense. 

The Vikings know they need to run the ball more if they want to win this time of year.  They have gotten pass-happy in recent losses to the Bears and Patriots.  They should get back to their ground game this week knowing that the Seahawks are vulnerable against the run.  In fact, the Seahawks are tied for last in yards per carry (5.1) allowed this season.  The Vikings would be foolish not to run the ball more and keep that clock moving. 

The most recent meeting between these teams came in the playoffs in 2016.  The Seahawks won that game 10-9 in Minnesota.  The Vikings managed just 183 total yards in that game, while the Seahawks had just 226 total yards.  I don’t think it will be that low-scoring again, but I do think this game stays well UNDER the 45.5-point total. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in Vikings last four games in December.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Vikings last six Monday games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Seahawks last eight Monday games.  Seattle is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Minnesota) - an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1.0 YPP) after eight-plus games are 31-6 (83.8%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. 

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco 49ers +4.5 

With three more turnovers last week against the Seahawks, including a 98-yard INT return TD, the 49ers now have the worst turnover differential (-20) in the NFL.  These teams with horrible turnover differentials are undervalued this late in the year, because there’s a big element of luck in turnovers. 

I have no doubt the 49ers are better than their 2-10 record would suggest.  And a quick look at the numbers shows that this should at least be a 6-6 team or better.  They 49ers have outgained their opponents by 174 yards on the season.  They are outgaining them by 15.2 yards per game.  That’s not the sign of a 2-10 team. 

The Broncos are +8 in turnovers over the past three weeks, which has allowed them to win three straight games over the Steelers, Chargers and Bengals.  But they had no business winning those games against the Steelers and Chargers as those two teams simply gave the game away.  And the Bengals are decimated with injuries playing with a backup QB.  They’re broken. 

The 49ers do show up every week.  Their 16-43 loss to the Seahawks last week makes most bettors seem like they packed it in.  But that wasn’t the case, and it was one of the most misleading finals of the week.  I mentioned the 98-yard INT return TD the Seahawks got at the end of the game.  But the 49ers gained 452 total yards and gave up 331, actually outgaining the Seahawks by 121 yards in that contest.  They deserved better, and Nick Mullens had one of his better games of the season with 386 passing yards. 

The Broncos have some key injuries this week that will make them less effective.  Emmanuel Sanders suffered an Achilles injury in practice on Wednesday that has landed him on IR.  Sanders was having a great year with 71 receptions for 868 yards and four touchdowns.  And since the Broncos traded away Demaryius Thomas, his loss is even more significant.  The Broncos are seriously lacking weapons for the mediocre Case Keenum now.   

Plus, the Broncos’ best pass defender is Chris Harris Jr., and he’s out with a fractured fibula now.  The 49ers were without both Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon last week.  But Goodwin is expected to return, giving Mullens another big weapon outside.  And Garcon is questionable and could make his return this week as well.  Mullens should be able to make some more plays in the passing game this week. 

Denver is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game on the season over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after gaining more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.  This is clearly a ‘buy low’ situation on the 49ers, and a ‘sell high’ situation on the Broncos.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Ravens/Chiefs AFC Sunday No-Brainer on Baltimore +7 

I agree with this line move.  The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites or higher, and now this line has been bet down to 6.5 in most places as of this writing.  So if your book as +6.5 make sure to buy it up to +7 and bet the Ravens. 

This really comes down to the numbers for me.  The Ravens have the numbers of an elite team in spite of their mediocre 7-5 record.  They are outgaining teams by 102 yards per game on the season.  To compare, the Chiefs are only outgaining teams by 20 yards per game, which isn’t the sign of a 10-2 team.  I think the Chiefs are grossly overrated at this point of the season. 

The problem with the Chiefs is that they give up 27.2 points per game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 417 yards per game allowed.  Only the Bengals have been worse.  The Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game allowed, and 1st in total defense at 281.7 yards per game allowed. 

Lamar Jackson took over three games ago, and the Ravens have gone 3-0 in his starts while outscoring their three opponents by a combined 30 points, or by an average of 10 points per game.  They have become a run-heavy team since Jackson took over, averaging a whopping 238 rushing yards per game in their last three games.  That doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs, who are tied for dead last in the NFL in allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season.  So this is a great matchup for the Ravens’ offense.  They can control time of possession and keep Mahomes off the field with their ground game. 

It’s also a great matchup for the Ravens’ defense.  The Chiefs won’t be running the ball much now that Kareem Hunt has been released.  And they'll certainly miss his 1,202 yards from scrimmage and 14 total touchdowns as he was a matchup nightmare, especially in the passing game.  The Chiefs will be putting the ball in Pat Mahomes’ hand even more.

Well, the Ravens rank 2nd in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 194.4 passing yards per game.  Better yet, the Ravens are 1st in the NFL in passing yards per attempt (6.1) allowed.  No other defense is even close to them in that department as only three teams allow fewer than 6.8 per attempt this season. 

Baltimore is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.  Kansas City is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in its previous game.  The Ravens are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  Bet the Ravens Sunday. 

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +5 

In the NFL, lines are very tight.  And if a line if a point or two off, that’s all it takes for there to be some value.  I think this line should be Texans -3.  So we are basically getting two points of value on the Colts +5 this week.  That’s enough for me to pull the trigger. 

I believe the Texans are overvalued due to their 9-game winning streak.  And they’re coming off a misleading 16-point win over the Browns last week.  The Browns basically gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 4-0.  They had a 75-yard TD called back by a penalty, and they had another would-be 75-yard TD on the next play end in a player fumbling the ball through the end zone for a touchback.  The Browns gained 428 yards on the Texans and outgained them by 44 yards for the game. 

I believe the Colts come in undervalued this week off their upset 6-0 shutout loss at Jacksonville last week.  But the Colts actually outgained the Jaguars by 54 yards and held them to 211 yards.  In fact, the Colts have now outgained eight of their last nine opponents coming in.  That’s the sign of an elite team and one that I want to put my money behind, especially as 5-point underdogs. 

There’s no doubt the Colts want revenge from their 34-37 (OT) home loss to the Texans earlier this season in their first meeting.  The Colts gained 478 total yards on the Texans and moved the ball at will.  I think the Texans will relax this week.  They have a three-game lead over both the Colts and Titans in the division, so they can afford a loss.  Meanwhile, the Colts are in must-win mode here trying to stay alive for a wild card spot. 

Andrew Luck has been tremendous off a loss.  In fact, Luck is 25-8 SU & 24-9 ATS in his last 33 games as a starting quarterback following a defeat.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, who are also off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS since 1983. 

The road team is 6-1-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Colts are 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to Houston.  Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 14 points or fewer in its previous game.  The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games.  Take the Colts Sunday. 

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo Bills -3 

The Buffalo Bills deserved to blow out the Miami Dolphins last week.  But the fact that they somehow lost that game 17-21 has them undervalued coming into this game.  They failed to cover the spread as closing 3.5 points underdogs, and it was one of the most misleading finals of the season. 

The Bills gained 415 total yards and held the Dolphins to just 175 total yards, outgaining them by 240 yards for the game.  Those stats alone show that the Bills should have won the game.  But Charles Clay dropped what would have been a game-winning touchdown catch late as well.  I think it works out better for us this week that they actually lost though, because now we’re laying only 3 points instead of 4 or more. 

The Jets are getting too much credit for giving the Titans a run for their money last week.  The Jets actually led that game most the way, but eventually lost 22-26, covering as 10-point underdogs.  But they were thoroughly out-statted as well.  The Jets gained just 280 total yards and gave up 403 total yards, getting outgained by 123 yards by the Titans. 

The Jets are now 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been blown out consistently with all six losses by 4 points or more, five losses by 7 points or more, and four losses by 14 points or more.  They have been outscored by 90 points during this losing streak, or by an average of 15 points per game. 

The reason I love this Bills team is because they play defense.  In fact, the Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 294.2 yards per game.  The third place Bears give up 317.9 yards per game, and they only trail the Ravens (281.7) in this category.  They have an elite defense, yet they don’t get credit for it. 

The Bills have played much better on offense when either Josh Allen or Matt Barkley has been under center at quarterback.  In fact, Allen ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing over the last two weeks, rushing for a combined 234 yards the past two games.  I don’t think he gets enough credit for being the dual-threat he is, completing opening up this offense and making opposing defenses defend the entire field. 

The Jets are a bad team, period.  They get outgained by 75.4 yards per game on the season, while the Bills only get outgained by 8.5 yards per game.  The Jets rank 23rd in total defense, giving up 376.4 yards per game on the season.  New York also ranks 30th in total offense, averaging just 301.0 yards per game on the season. 

Buffalo blew out New York 41-10 on the road as 7-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  This was every bit the blowout the final score showed and wasn’t misleading at all.  The Bills gained 451 total yards in that game and gave up just 199 yards, outgaining the Jets by 252 total yards in that contest.  The Bills rushed for 212 yards on the Jets, and Matt Barkley played well with 232 passing yards and two touchdowns.  Allen and company should also have plenty of success on this Jets defense once again. 

The Jets are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog.  New York is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games.  Buffalo is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East opponents.  The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Jets.  Bet the Bills Sunday. 

15* Jaguars/Titans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +5.5 

Let’s start out by looking at this game from a line value perspective.  The Jaguars were 10-point favorites over the Titans at home in their first meeting.  So adjust for home-field advantage, they would have been roughly 4-to-5-point road favorites at that time.  Instead, they are 5.5-point road underdogs, which is basically a 10-point adjustment.  The line value is clearly on the Jaguars tonight. 

I like the fact that they didn’t quit on their season.  The Jaguars shut out the Colts 6-0 last week, playing the role of spoiler very well.  And now they want revenge on the Titans from three straight losses against them, including their 6-9 upset loss earlier this season.  They would love to beat the Titans here and end their playoff hopes as well. 

The Titans were fortunate to escape with a 26-22 home win over the lowly Jets last week.  They trailed the Jets 6-19 in the 3rd quarter, but scored a touchdown with 36 seconds left to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  And that’s a bad Jets team that loses by double-digits week after week.  They’ll have a much bigger problem with the Jaguars tonight. 

The Jaguars have been a lot more competitive whenever Leonard Fournette has been in the lineup.  He has missed several games due to injury, and last week he was out with a suspension.  But he’s back this week and ready to have a big game against the Titans.  Fournette has only played in five games this season.  He’ll be fresh since he had last week off following a very productive game against the Bills the previous week. 

I know the Jaguars are going with backup Cody Kessler again this week.  However, he’s not much of a downgrade from Blake Bortles, who has had a brutal season.  Kessler has actually shown well, completing 72.2% of his 54 attempts this season with one touchdown and one interception.  He’ll be much more comfortable in his second start of the season here for the Jaguars. 

The Jaguars (4-8) are the team with the stats of a 6-6 or better team, while the Titans (6-6) are a team with the stats of closer to a 4-8 team.  The Jaguars actually outgain their opponents by nearly 20 yards per game on the season.  They have an elite defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 315.6 yards per game. 

The Titans are actually getting outgained by 31 yards per game on the season.  They have a dreadful offense that scores just 18.4 points per game while ranking 28th in total offense at 310.2 yards per game.  The Jaguars should be able to shut them down, which will be a big reason why they are able to stay within this 5.5-point spread tonight. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Jacksonville) - in a game involving two good defensive teams that allow 18-23 PPG, after eight-plus games, after scoring and allowing 14 points or less last game are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983. 

The Titans are 0-6 ATS vs. poor offensive teams that score 17 or less points per game over the last three seasons.  The Jaguars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after scoring and allowing 14 points or less last game.  Tennessee is 0-6 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons.  The Titans are 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Jaguars Thursday.

20* Redskins/Eagles MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 45.5 

This is a division rivalry with a lot at stake.  The Eagles are trying to keep pace with the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East, while the Redskins are just trying to stay afloat after a fast start to the season.  I think this game will be played closer to the vest, and I certainly think it favors both defenses than both offenses, which is why I’ll side with the UNDER Monday night. 

Both offenses are really struggling this season.  The Redskins rank 27th in total offense at 331.5 yards per game, while the Eagles are 19th at 353.9 yards per game.  The Redskins are also 27th in scoring offense at 20.0 points per game, while the Eagles are 23rd at 20.9 points per game. 

Both of these teams are led by their defenses.  The Redskins are 7th in scoring defense, giving up just 20.8 points per game.  The Eagles are 15th at 23.0 points per game, but I have no doubt they are better than that with the talent that’s on hand. 

And Philadelphia should have no problem shutting down a Washington offense that has been plagued by injuries along the offenses line, at the skill positions, and at quarterback.  The Redskins are using backup QB Colt McCoy after Alex Smith suffered a gruesome injury a few weeks back.  And he’s getting no protection and terrible play from the skill positions outside of TE Jordan Reed due to injuries. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Washington) - in a game involving two good defensive teams that allow 18-23 PPG, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 38-13 (74.5%) over the last five seasons. 

Philadelphia is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more yards per attempts over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 9-2 UNDER in home games where the total is 42.5 to 49 points over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 8-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last three years.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in over the last three years.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday. 

20* Chargers/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -3 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a misleading 17-24 road loss to the Denver Broncos.  I think it has them undervalued this week, and they should be laying more than a field goal to the San Diego Chargers on Sunday Night Football. 

The Steelers clearly deserved to win that game against the Broncos.  They amassed 527 total yards and held the Broncos to 308, outgaining them by 219 yards.  Yet, they still found a way to lose because they lost the turnover battle 4-0.  They had several drives inside the Denver 20-yard line that resulted in zero points, including the final drove where Big Ben was intercepted in the end zone. 

I still believe the Steelers are closer to the team that had won six straight prior to that lost while going 5-0-1 ATS than the one that lost to the Broncos.  They should be re-focused at home Sunday night against a Chargers team that has lost every time they’ve stepped up in class. 

The Chargers lost by 10 at home to the Chiefs and by 12 on the road to the Rams.  They also lost at home to that same Broncos team.  Their eight wins have come against the Bills, 49ers, Raiders (twice), Browns, Titans, Seahawks and Cardinals.  Only one of those teams has a winning record, and that’s Seattle, and the Chargers had a bye prior to facing the Seahawks so it was a dream spot for them.

The Chargers lost their best weapon on offense last week to a knee injury in Melvin Gordon.  His absence is huge in this game as the Chargers need all the weapons they can get to keep up with this high-powered Steelers offense.  Gordon has rushed for 802 yards and nine touchdowns, while also catching 44 balls for 453 yards and four scores.  He is their third-leading receiver, so he’ll be missed in the passing game as well.

Plays on favorites (Pittsburgh) - after having won three of their last four games against an opponent that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Mike Tomlin is 8-1 ATS after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Take the Steelers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 

This is the ultimate ‘buy low, sell high’ situation here.  We’ll buy low on the Bengals, who have lost three straight and five of their last six, meaning the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  And we’ll sell high on the Broncos, who are coming off back-to-back upset victories over the Chargers and Steelers. 

The Broncos were coming off their bye prior to that win over the Chargers, so it was a great spot for them.  And only poor coaching by the Chargers allowed the Broncos to win that game.  They erased a 19-7 deficit to win 23-22.  And the Steelers win was even more misleading.  The Broncos were outgained by 219 yards and gave up 527 total yards to the Steelers.  But they won the turnover battle 4-0.  It was a complete fluke. 

The Bengals have been plagued by injuries, which is a big reason for their recent struggles.  But they are expected to get star receiver AJ Green back from injury this week, and he makes a huge difference for this team.  I know the Bengals will be without Andy Dalton this week, but Jeff Driskel really impressive me last week, and I think he’s good enough to beat the Broncos with Green at his disposal now. 

The Bengals trailed the Browns 28-0 last week.  They only ended up losing 20-35, and a lot of that had to do with Driskel.  They seemed energized when he came into the game, and that should carry over this week.  Driskel finished 17-of-29 passing for 155 yards with a touchdown in the comeback attempt, while also rushing for a score.  I think this team continues to be energized by their backup QB, who is better than he gets credit for. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Denver) - after having won two of their last three games, a team that wins 40% to 49% of their games on the season playing a losing team are 68-27 (71.6%) ATS since 1983. 

The Broncos are 4-11 ATS int heir last 15 road games.  Denver is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game.  The Bengals are 9-3 ATS int heir last 12 vs. AFC opponents.  Cincinnati is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 December games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Bengals Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -1.5 

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are getting way too much respect for back-to-back home wins against the Bengals and Raiders.  These two teams have been two of the worst in the NFL over the past month-plus, so those wins are nothing to write home about. 

Plus, they only beat the Bengals by a final of 24-21 as 6.5-point home favorites, so they failed to cover the spread.  And they were extremely fortunate to cover against the Raiders last week as 13-point favorites, winning 34-17 thanks to two non-offensive touchdowns with one on special teams and one on defense. 

The Ravens take a big step up in class this week against the Falcons.  The Falcons are undervalued off three straight losses, which followed up three straight wins.  But they had their chance to win each of the last three games, but they blew it with red zone struggles. 

Atlanta’s 17-31 loss at New Orleans last week was one of the most misleading final scores of the week.  I know because I had the Falcons +13.5 in that game and was extremely unlucky not to cash that ticket.  The Flacons outgained the Saints and held them to just 312 total yards, but they committed four turnovers, including three fumbles inside New Orleans’ 20-yard line.  Had they simply kicked one field goal on one of those three drives, they would have covered the 13.5-point spread. 

Now Atlanta has the rest advantage in this one after playing last Thursday, while Baltimore had to play on Sunday.  So the Falcons got to watch Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, and their defense will know how to stop them.  Their offense will also find some holes, unlike Cincinnati or Oakland did the two previous weeks with two bad offenses.  And the Falcons have a better defense than either of those two teams, especially since they are supposed to get MLB Deion Jones back from injury.  He’ll be key in slowing down Jackson and company this week. 

Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after outgaining its previous opponent by 150 or more total yards over the past three season.  It is coming back to lose by 6.3 points per game on average in this spot.  The Ravens are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win by 14-plus points.  The value is on Atlanta as a short home favorite this week.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday. 

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills +4.5 

I won on both the Bills and Dolphins last week.  They were my two top play winners in an otherwise disappointing 2-3 Sunday.  But I’m sticking with the Bills this week and fading the Dolphins.  The Dolphins go from being 9-point underdogs to the Colts to now 4.5-point favorites against the Bills.  That’s nearly a 14-point swing from week to week, and I think it’s too much. 

I believe the Bills to be the better of these two teams.  Miami has one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL over the past several seasons because fans simply don’t show up.  So they can’t be laying 4.5 points here.  This line should be Miami -2.5 or even -3 at the most. 

I trust the Bills more because of their defense.  They actually rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense this season.  They rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per play defense, only behind the Ravens and Bears.  And the offense got a jolt last week with Josh Allen returning at quarterback to beat the Jaguars.  When Allen or Matt Barkley have been under center, the Bills have been a great bet this season. 

Injuries are another reason I think the Bills have a huge advantage.  The Bills have stayed remarkably healthy this season as they only have four players currently on the injury report.  One is backup QB Derek Anderson, and TE Charles Clay is questionable with a hamstring.  So they basically just have two players out with season-ending injuries.  Miami already has 11 players lost to season-ending injuries.  Two of those are their best playmakers in Albert Wilson and Jakeeem Grant, and Danny Amendola is questionable. 

Having Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback helps the Dolphins, but he is lacking weapons on the outside.  And the Dolphins’ 24-27 loss to the Colts last week was misleading.  They only managed 314 total yards and gave up 455 total yards, getting outgained by 141 yards by the Colts.  Indianapolis simply kept the Dolphins in the game by committing three turnovers.  And that was a home run spot for Miami coming off their bye week.  The Bills also had a bye last week, so both teams are fresh. 

Tannehill is really going to struggle without his top playmakers against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 126, 116 and 107 passing yards in its last three games, respectively.  They are giving up just 116.3 passing yards per game over their past three games, and they’ve held six of their past seven opponents to 156 passing yards or fewer.  That’s almost unheard of in today’s NFL and it just goes to show how elite this defense really is.  They have held four of their last six opponents to 83 or fewer rushing yards as well. 

Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. poor offensive teams that average 4.75 or fewer yards per play.  The Dolphins are 18-46-3 ATS in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Miami.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

20* Saints/Cowboys NFC Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas +8 

The New Orleans Saints have now covered in nine straight games.  The betting public has made a fortune off this team and they’ll continue to back them every week until they lose.  Oddsmakers haven’t been able to set their lines high enough.  And there’s no question the value is on the Dallas Cowboys this week catching more than a touchdown at home. 

I had the Falcons +13.5 against the Saints last week in a 14-point loss.  It was clearly a right side loser as the Falcons were the better team in that game but found a way to lose by 14.  They outgained the Saints by 54 yards and held them to 312 total yards, but lost the turnover battle 4-1.  And the Falcons lost three fumbles inside New Orleans’ 20-yard line that took points off the board.  It was a complete fluke. 

I like the way the Cowboys have rallied the troops and are feeling good about themselves right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, which includes upset road wins over the Eagles and Falcons, and a 31-23 home win over the Redskins last week.  They dominated the Redskins in that game. 

This Dallas offense has taken off since Amari Cooper came over from Oakland.  Cooper already has 22 receptions for 349 yards and three touchdowns in four games for the Cowboys.  He has opened up things for Ezekiel Elliott, who has rushed for at least 121 yards in three straight games now.  This offense has what it takes to move the chains and keep Drew Brees on the sidelines. 

Of course, it also helps that the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  Dallas ranks 7th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 331.1 yards per game.  The Cowboys are even better in the all-important scoring defense (19.4) category.  Only the Ravens and Bears have been better in that department. 

Sean Payton is 2-10 ATS in road games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games as the coach of the Saints.  Dallas is 11-2 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more total yards per game over the last two seasons.  The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

15* Titans/Texans AFC South No-Brainer on Houston -3.5 

The Houston Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.  They have reeled off seven straight victories since their 0-3 start to the season.  But they could have won any of those first three games as they were all one-score games.  And they are finally winning their share of one-score games during this seven-game winning streak. 

Now the Texans are as healthy as they’ve been all season.  They get some key players back on defense this week and will be playing just their 2nd game in 22 days because they had a bye in Week 10.  They should be primed for another big effort here on Monday Night Football to cement their place atop the AFC South standings. 

The Texans will be out for revenge from a 17-20 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting.  Well, they dominated the Titans in that game and should have won.  They outgained Tennessee 437 to 283 for the game, or by 154 total yards.  The Titans got a 66-yard fake punt TD in that game that proved to be the difference. 

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Houston is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Tennessee with all six wins coming by 6 points or more and by an average of 19.7 points per game.  So based on this series history, we are getting the Texans at a pretty cheap -3.5 price here tonight. 

Tennessee is a fraudulent 5-5.  The Titans are getting outgained by nearly 40 yards per game on the season.  They are scoring just 17.8 points per game and rank 30th in total offense at 295.4 yards per game.  The Texans are a legit 7-3, outgaining teams by 34 yards per game.  They are scoring 23.9 points per game and rank 15th in total offense at 364.2 yards per game.  And they have posted better defensive numbers than the Titans as well.  The Texans rank 4th in yards per play (5.0) allowed, while the Titans are 10th in yards per play (5.5) allowed. 

Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. AFC opponents, while Tennessee is just 19-43-4 ATS in its last 66 vs. AFC foes.  The Texans are 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Roll with the Texans Monday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins +10 

The Colts are getting way too much love this week.  That’s because they have gone 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall coming in.  Now the betting public is on them, and it’s time to ‘sell high’ here Sunday.  They are coming off a 38-10 beat down of the Titans last week.  I had the Colts in that game, and was fortunate Marcus Mariota got hurt.  The rest was history.  But I’ll gladly fade them this week as 10-point favorites over the Dolphins. 

Indianapolis has only been favored by more than 3.5 points once this season, and that was as 7-point favorites against the Bills.  And now they have to play a motivated, rested Dolphins team that is coming off their bye week at 5-5 and looking to make a playoff push.  And the Dolphins get Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback this week, which is a big upgrade over Brock Osweiler. 

The Dolphins opened 3-0 this season before back-to-back road losses to the Patriots and Bengals.  Tannehill led them to that 3-2 start, and the Dolphins led the Bengals big before he got hurt.  Speaking of injuries, the Colts suffered a big blow when they lost center Ryan Kelly to a knee injury against the Titans last week.  Center is one of the most underrated positions in the NFL.  Kelly is their best linemen, and the Colts have a couple other key injuries along the offensive line that will make life more difficult on Andrew Luck this week. 

Plays on any team (Miami) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 23-27 PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983.  The Colts should be closer to 3-point favorites than 10-point favorites this week.  We’ll take the value on Miami.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3 

I was on the Panthers last week as my free play, and it was probably a week early.  They lost 19-20 to the Lions after going for a 2-point conversion to win the game in the closing seconds.  To my credit, the Panthers outgained the Lions by 78 yards and probably should have won that game.  But their road struggles continued and they lost. 

But now the Panthers return home highly motivated for a victory after back-to-back road losses.  This is a place of comfort for them as the Panthers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring the opposition by 9.8 points per game in the process.  They should get back on track at home here with a win and cover as only 3-point favorites over the Seahawks. 

This is a bad matchup for Seattle.  The Seahawks lead the league in rushing, but they are just 28th in passing offense, averaging only 196.8 passing yards per game.  The weakness of Carolina is their pass D, but the Seahawks won’t be able to exploit it.  Carolina ranks 7th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 98.5 rushing yards per game.  They have the speed at linebacker with Luke Keuchly and company to stuff the read-option that Seattle likes to run. 

Seattle is only 2-3 in true road games this season.  One of those came 20-17 at Arizona, a terrible team and arguably the worst team in the NFL this season.  The other was at Detroit the week they were coming off a bye, so they were primed for a big effort there.  This is clearly a step up in class for the Seahawks, and I expect them to fail here Sunday. 

The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite as the coach of Carolina.  Rivera is also 22-4 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Panthers.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland Raiders +11 

The Oakland Raiders showed last week they wouldn’t quit on the season when they went into Arizona and won 23-21 as 4.5-point underdogs.  This line of Baltimore laying 11 points Sunday indicates that the Raiders have quit, but they obviously haven’t.  I think there’s a ton of value on the Raiders catching double-digits points here this week. 

Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to a 24-21 win over the Bengals last week.  And Jackson will make another start in place of Joe Flacco.  But now the Raiders have some game film on him they can use.  And Jackson isn’t going to lead the Ravens to a ton of points simply because his style doesn’t suit it. 

Jackson only threw fate ball 19 times last week for 138 yards against the Bengals.  They rushed 54 times.  They are going to implement a similar game plan here with a run-heavy scheme.  And that will keep the clock moving and make it very predictable for the Raiders. 

It also helps out the Raiders dramatically because they rank 32nd in the league in yards per pass attempt (8.9) allowed, which is their biggest weakness.  The Raiders have at least been respectable against the run and should be able to limit the Ravens’ rushing attack this week. 

The Ravens are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  There’s no way they should be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite, and they have been favored in six consecutive games.  I’m confused at all the love for the Ravens at this point. 

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (Oakland) - off an upset win as a road underdog are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983.  Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more yards.  The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Raiders Sunday. 

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco 49ers +3.5 

The Bucs can’t be trusted to be laying 3.5 points at home to the 49ers this week.  They are 1-7 in their last eight games overall with their only win coming by exactly 3 points at home against the Browns.  I think this is a game where the 49ers have an excellent chance to win outright. 

The Bucs keep playing musical chairs at quarterback.  Now they are going back to Jameis Winston this week.  He has been worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick this season, but they aren’t giving up on him for whatever reason.  Whoever is under center has turned the ball over at an alarming rate, and that won’t stop this week.  The Bucs have 29 turnovers in their last nine games, averaging 3.2 turnovers per game.  It’s simply too tough to win that way. 

The Bucs also have a ton of injury issues coming into this game.  They are missing four starters on defense in Lavonte David, Chris Conte, Kwon Alexander and Vernon Hargreaves.  They have two DE starters questionable in Vinny Curry and Jason Pierre-Paul.  They are without their stud tight end in OJ Howard, plus C Ryan Jensen and WR DeSean Jackson are questionable. 

The 49ers are coming off their bye week, so they are as healthy as they have been since Week 1.  That should have them primed for a big effort here against the hapless Bucs.  And I like the fact that Nick Mullens is getting another start this week.  Mullens is completing 70.5% of his passes for 512 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in his two starts this season.  Those are better numbers than both Jimmy G and C.J. Beathard have put up this season. 

The 49ers have the numbers of a team that is much better than their 2-8 record would indicate, too.  They are outgaining opponents by 13.1 yards per game this season.  You’d expect them to be at least .500 with those numbers.  And their defense has really stepped up the last two weeks, holding the Raiders to just 242 total yards and the Giants to just 277 total yards.  They have given up 331 or fewer yards in four consecutive games now. 

Tampa Bay is 1-12 ATS after going OVER the total in their previous game over the past two seasons.  The 49ers are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bucs are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo Bills +3.5 

We’ve already found out that the Buffalo Bills are trying to win every game they play.  That was evident last time out in a 41-10 win as 7-point road dogs over the New York Jets.  And now they are coming off their bye week feeling good about themselves, so they’ll be rested and motivated for another win here against the Jaguars. 

I certainly question Jacksonville’s motivation at this point.  This is a team that made the AFC Championship Game last year, and now they sit at 3-7 off six consecutive losses.  There are issues in the locker room that aren’t fixable.  And they just blew a big lead in a 20-16 loss to the Steelers last week.  I don’t like their state of mind coming into this game at Buffalo. 

Now the Jaguars have to head to colder weather, which they aren’t used to.  And they have to try and get back up off the mat to face a 3-7 Bills team.  I just don’t think they will be motivated at all the rest of the way, especially this week in a hangover spot from that loss to the Steelers. 

The Bills have the 2nd-best defense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders.  That matches up with their season-long stats as well.  The Bills are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 302.2 yards per game.  They are also 2nd in yards per play (4.9) allowed.  This is an elite defense, and one that will shut down this putrid Jacksonville offense. 

The Bills get a big boost this week with rookie QB Josh Allen returning to the lineup from an elbow injury.  They have been highly competitive with Allen this season, and pretty bad without him with the exception of that Jets came when Matt Barkley came in and gave them a spark.  I think this offense will take another step forward this week with Allen having two full weeks to prepare for the Jaguars. 

The Jaguars have a laundry list of injuries that has contributed to this six-game losing streak, and it’s not getting any better this week.  The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Bills Sunday. 

15* NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Saints OVER 59.5 

Expect a shootout between the Falcons and Saints Thursday night.  They combined for 80 points in their first meeting this season with the Saints winning 43-37 (OT) in Atlanta.  They also combined for 941 total yards in that contest.  I see no reason this game won’t play out the same way in the rematch. 

You already know the Saints are an offensive juggernaut, scoring 37.8 points per game.  They should be able to handle their share.  But they do give up 25.4 points per game at home, and the Falcons should be able to score their share of points as well.  They are scoring 26.3 points per game on the season.  The Falcons have scored at least 31 points in five of their last nine games overall. 

The Falcons are 20-7 OVER in their last 27 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Saints are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games off five or more consecutive ATS wins.  The OVER is 4-0 in Saints last four vs. NFC South opponents.  The OVER is 19-8-1 in Saints last 28 home games.  The OVER is 16-5 in Falcons last 21 games in a dome.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday. 

20* Falcons/Saints NFC South No-Brainer on Atlanta +13.5 

What the Saints are doing is absolutely remarkable.  They have now covered the spread in eight consecutive games.  How rare is that? Well, it happens less than once per season on average.  And with that point spread success now comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be tough to live up to moving forward. 

It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Saints.  They haven’t been double-digit favorites once this season, and now they are 13.5-point favorites against the Atlanta Falcons this week.  And the Falcons are better than many of the teams they have played, plus they are a division rival that knows the Saints very well.  They simply cannot be laying this kind of number against the Falcons this week. 

The Falcons will show up because it’s a division rival and because it’s the Saints, who are one of the best teams in the NFL.  I actually think the Falcons will want this game more to try and save their season and earn a signature win.  And it’s not like the Falcons are losing by these kinds of margins.  The only time they would have failed to cover this spread was against the Steelers in a 17-41 loss.  The Falcons were banged up badly defensively coming into that game. 

The series history shows there’s value with the Falcons, too.  The Saints haven’t even been a double-digit favorite against the Falcons since 2009, and they haven’t beaten the Falcons by 14 points or more since 2011.  In fact, the Saints haven’t won any of the last 13 meetings by more than 10 points, making for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.  And the Falcons will surely be out for revenge from their 37-43 (OT) home loss to the Saints earlier this season. 

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - dominant team that outscores opponents by 10 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Thursday games.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Falcons Thursday. 

20* Chiefs/Rams ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City +3.5 

I’ve successfully faded the Rams four of the last five weeks.  And I’m going to fade them again this week against the Kansas City Chiefs.  They have consistently been overvalued, and they remain overvalue here as 3.5-point home favorites against the Chiefs in Los Angeles. 

The Rams are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They did win six of those games outright, but only one came by more than 7 points.  They have simply been fortunate in close games, but I think their luck runs out this week against a team the caliber of the Chiefs.  And that hook on the +3.5 could certainly come into play here if the Rams do miraculously win another close one. 

The problem with the Rams has been defensively.  They just haven’t been the same since losing Aqib Talib.  The Rams are giving up 27.9 points per game in their last seven games.  And they are running on fumes right now because they haven’t had a bye week yet, which I think is affecting their defense a lot more than their offense. 

Conversely, the Chiefs have really turned it around on the defensive end after a poor start to the season.  The Chiefs have allowed 23 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.  They are giving up just 17.0 points per game in their last four games. 

Patrick Mahomes and company are 2nd in the NFL in scoring offense this season at 35.3 points per game.  Mahomes is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67% of his passes for 3,150 yards with 31 touchdowns and only seven interceptions.  He is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt.  It also helps that he has the best set of weapons in the NFL with Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins at his disposal. 

The Rams are 3rd in scoring offense at 33.5 points per game.  But they suffered a big blow last week with Cooper Kupp suffering a torn ACL.  Kupp was leading the team with six touchdown receptions to go along with 40 receptions for 566 yards despite missing two games previously with a knee injury.  He may be the most important receiver on the team as he’s been Jared Goff’s security blanket on 3rd down over the past two seasons.  His loss is getting scraped under the rug here, but it’s a big one, and Sean McVay even said so after the Seahawks game last week. 

So I’m basically getting the better offense and the better defense in this game catching 3.5 points.  And the Chiefs are 9-1 this season with their only loss coming to the Patriots on the road on a last-second field goal by a final of 43-40.  The Rams don’t have the same kind of home-field advantage as the Patriots.  You can actually hear opposing fans out-cheer them in their home games, similar to what we saw with the Seahawks last week and the Packers a few weeks back in Los Angeles.  Chiefs fans travel well, too. 

The Rams are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Kansas City is 8-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Chiefs are winning by 13.9 points per game in this spot.  Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

Note: I originally took the UNDER 63.5 in this game when it was going to be played in Mexico City.  I liked the under because the field conditions were expected to be so sloppy that it was going to be difficult for the offenses to put up points.  But I no longer like the UNDER now that it has been moved to Los Angeles.  I like the Chiefs at +3.5 instead.

20* Vikings/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +3 

The bye week came at a great time for the Minnesota Vikings.  They had some of their star players miss last game or the last few games, and they have a good chance at getting back some this week.  WR Stephon Diggs will return from a rib injury, and there’s a good chance both S Andrew Dendejo (groin) and LB Anthony Barr (hamstring) make their returns this week as well.  Not to mention, CB Xavier Rhodes (foot) is expected to play as well. 

The Vikings will be as close to full strength now as they’ve been since Week 1.  And they’ll be highly motivated for a win here Sunday night with first place on the line in the NFC North.  They sit at 5-3-1 right now, just 0.5 games behind the Chicago Bears for first place.  I expect them to handle their business here as I believe they are the better team in both sides of the ball, and they are in a prime spot here off their bye. 

The Bears are starting to get too much respect from the books due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But those three wins came against the Jets, Bills and Lions, which are three of the worst teams in the NFL.  Their other three wins came against the Cardinals, Bucs and Seahawks.  They haven’t beaten a team that currently has a winning record yet.  In fact, they have only PLAYED one team that currently has a winning record, and that was a home loss to the Patriots.  They have simply feasted on an easy schedule. 

The Vikings have owned the Bears, going 6-1 SU In the last seven meetings.  Mike Zimmer is 9-1 ATS off a division win as the coach of Minnesota.  Chicago is 6-24 ATS in its last 30 games after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games.  The Bears are 0-8 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to lose by 15.4 points per game on average the next week.  Take the Vikings Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -2 

The Colts are such a better team with Andrew Luck at quarterback that it’s like night and day.  They have been competitive this season and come in playing their best football of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, outscoring their last three opponents by a combined 49 points.  Yet they continue to get no respect as only 2-point home favorites against the Tennessee Titans this week. 

The Titans looked awful through their first seven games this year.  They opened 3-4 with all three of their wins coming by exactly 3 points.  But then they had their bye week and have delivered back-to-back eye-opening performances, winning 28-14 at Dallas and 34-10 at home against New England.  No question those two results were impressive, but it also has the Titans now overvalued. 

And I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans.  We’ve seen several teams over the years have a letdown after beating the Patriots, and I expect that to be the case again this week.  Mike Vraebel and company put a lot of effort into beating their former team last week, including Dion Lewis, who was not shy with his comments after the game about how much the team wanted to beat the Patriots.  It’s only human nature for them to have a letdown the next week. 

Even after those two performances, the Titans are still scoring just 18.7 points per game on the season while ranking 30th in total offense at 299.0 yards per game.  This offense still isn’t any good, and it doesn’t stand much of a chance of keeping up with the Colts score for score.  The Colts are scoring 28.9 points per game while ranking 9th in total offense at 379.8 yards per game behind Luck.  And they’ve gotten some key playmakers back in recent weeks in T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle and Marlon Mack that will only make them even more explosive moving forward. 

The Titans are 1-9 ATS in last 10 road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.  The Colts are 48-27 ATS in their last 75 games after scoring 25 points or more in two consecutive games.  Tennessee is 16-34-2 ATS in its last 52 games following a win.  The Titans are 10-27-3 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Indianapolis is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 November games.  The Colts are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Indianapolis. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Tennessee) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage between 45-55% on the season are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Colts Sunday. 

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans -2.5 

The Houston Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.  They have reeled off six straight victories following an 0-3 start.  Yet they aren’t getting any respect from the books.  They are only 2.5-point favorites here in a great spot against the Washington Redskins, who are one of the most fraudulent 6-3 teams you will ever see. 

The Texans are coming off their bye week.  It was good timing because their defense has injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and at receiver where they could get some guys back that they were missing previously.  And they now come out of the bye playing with a ton of confidence due to the six straight wins.  I think they make it seven in a row Sunday. 

The Redskins have gotten to 6-3 with smoke and mirrors.  And last week’s 16-3 win over Tampa Bay was one of the most misleading box scores of the season.  The Bucs racked up 501 total yards and 29 first downs in that game and punted once, but managed only 3 points.  They held the Redskins to just 286 total yards and outgained them by 225 for the game. 

This is a similar situation to two weeks ago when the Falcons were coming off the bye and facing the Redskins.  They rolled to a 38-14 victory while amassing 491 yards.  So, the Redskins have allowed 496 yards per game on average in their last two games against the Falcons and Bucs.  Their defense is leaky, and their offense is now one of the worst in the league. 

Indeed, the Redskins are scoring just 19.6 points per game on the season while ranking 26th in total offense at 337.4 yards per game.  You just can’t win in this league consistently with those kind of offensive numbers, which is why there’s no way they should be 6-3.  And the offense is only going to continue to be poor due to all the injuries.  The Redskins are missing three starters on the offensive line, and they have a few others questionable.  They have also been playing without their top two playmakers in Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson, as well as receiver Paul Richardson. 

The bye also gave new receiver Demaryius Thomas time to get acclimated to the offense.  The Texans, who rank 14th in total offense at 369.1 yards per game while scoring 24.0 points per game, should only continue to get better on offense now with Thomas around.  And they could finally get fellow receiver Keke Coutee back from a hamstring injury this week. 

Defensively, the Texans have one of the best units in the league.  They are giving up just 20.4 points per game while ranking 9th in total defense at 336.3 yards per game.  JJ Watt is in line to earn Comeback Player of the Year as he’s back to being his former self.  And Jadeveon Clowney is also wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks.  Watt and Clowney will be licking their chops at the opportunity to get after Alex Smith while working against a Redskins offensive line full of backups. 

Jay Gruden is 2-9 ATS after allowing 14 points or less as the coach of Washington.  The Redskins are 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.  The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a tam with a winning road record.  Washington is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games following a win. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Washington) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Texans Sunday. 

15* Packers/Seahawks NFC No-Brainer on Seattle -2.5 

Thursday night home teams have a huge advantage on these short weeks, and I don’t think that’s being factored into the line enough here.  The home team is now 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in Thursday games thiss Eason.  The only two teams that lost were the Giants and Cardinals, two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they were both underdogs to the Eagles and Broncos, respectively. 

I actually have the Packers and Seahawks power-rated as basically even teams on a neutral field.  But when you factor in the home field for the Seahawks, and the situation with this being a short week and them only having to travel from Los Angeles to Seattle, while the Packers have to travel from Green Bay all the way to Seattle, and I think there’s ample value to back the Seahawks as 2.5-point home favorites here. 

The Seahawks are clearly better than a 4-5 team, too.  All five of their losses have come by 8 points or less, so they’ve been competitive in every game.  That includes 2 and 5-point losses to the Rams, who many consider to be the best team in the NFL.  The other losses were to the Broncos, Bears and Chargers with the first two of those on the road.  The Seahawks are actually outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game on the season despite their record.  And it’s worth noting that the Seahawks have played six of their first nine games on the road. 

Green Bay has a big home-road split this season.  The Packers are 4-0-1 at home where they have handled their business.  However, the Packers are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game on average.  They lost to the Redskins by 14, the Lions by 8 and the Patriots by 14.  The Redskins and Lions aren’t as good as the Seahawks. 

Seattle is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games after a game where 60 or more points were scored.  Pete Carroll is 17-4 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 11-2 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of the Seahawks.  Carroll is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games as the coach of the Seahawks.  Carroll is 7-0 ATS when playing on Thursday as the coach of Seattle.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Seahawks Thursday. 

20* Giants/49ers MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5 

The San Francisco 49ers are just 2-7 on the season while the New York Giants are 1-7.  I like backing the OVER on teams with nothing to play for but pride in National TV games.  It just seems as though the offenses take chances and there’s more big plays because they have nothing to lose.  And the defenses aren’t prepared for it. 

I was certainly impressed with the 49ers’ offense against the Raiders last week with Nick Mullens making his first start.  They racked up 34 points and 405 total yards against the Raiders.  Mullens went 16-of-22 for 262 yards and three touchdowns.  He’s from Southern Miss, just like Brett Favre, who is one of his biggest fans.  He’s out to prove that he belongs in this league. 

The Giants’ offense has held them back so far.  And you know that offensive-minded head coach Pat Shurmur doesn’t like what he’s seen so far.  So the Giants come off a bye week, and I fully expect them to have a bunch of new wrinkles on offense.  They have the two best playmakers on the field in Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley.  They should be able to come through with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this 49ers defense.  The 49ers are giving up 26.6 points per game while the Giants are giving up 25.6 points per game this season. 

The 49ers are 6-0 OVER off a non-conference games over the last two seasons.  They are combining with their opponents for 54.0 points per game in this spot.  The OVER is 18-5 in Giants last 23 games after allowing more than 15 rushing yards in they previous game.  The OVER is 4-0 in 49ers last four games following a win.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* Cowboys/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +7 

This is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Dallas Cowboys.  Everyone saw them lose to the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football last week, and now the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But it was their own mistakes that cost them in that game, and they’re easily fixable. 

For starters, the Cowboys rushed for over 50 yards in the first quarter, but then were held to just 72 yards for the entire game.  That’s because they quit trying to run the ball.  They were up 7-0 and instead of running it, Dak Prescott threw an interception in the end zone.  It totally changed the complexion of the game.  They managed to run the ball just 19 times the whole game.  I think they’ll make the proper adjustments and force feed Zeke Elliott, which is when they are at their best offensively. 

I know the Eagles are off a bye week, but I think that’s getting factored into the line too much.  Most would say the Cowboys are on a short week, which they are, but it’s not a true short week.  The Cowboys had their bye prior to the Titans game.  So this will still be just their 2nd game in 21 days.  They should be plenty fresh for this game. 

The Cowboys will also be playing with a chip on their shoulder to redeem themselves from that poor Monday night performance.  And they realize this is a must-win game, so they will be laying it all on the line.  They can’t afford to fall further behind the Eagles or the Redskins in the NFC East if they want a realistic shot of winning the division.  A win and they’re right back in the hunt.  I have no doubt they’ll show up with a big effort Sunday night. 

It’s certainly worth noting that Dallas hasn’t been more than a 3-point underdog all season to anyone.  So we’re getting value here on them as 7-point dogs.  And they have seemed to thrive in the role of the underdog in recent seasons, and struggle in the favorite role.  Dallas is 35-20 ATS in its last 55 games off a loss by 14 points or more. 

And it’s not like the Eagles are blowing anyone out this season.  They are clearly in the midst of a Super Bowl hangover at 4-4 on the season.  Only one of their four wins came by more than 6 points, and that was against the hapless Giants.  It’s worth noting the Giants actually outgained them in that contest, and the Eagles have been outgained in five of their eight games this season.  In fact, seven of the eight Eagles games have been decided by 6 points or fewer this season. 

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Dallas) - in a game involving two average teams with a +/- 3 PPG differential, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 99-51 (66%) ATS since 1983.  The Cowboys are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.  Grass fields fit perfectly into what they want to do, which is run the football.  The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on grass.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Philadelphia.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday night. 

20* Seahawks/Rams NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +10 

Fading the Los Angeles Rams has paid off big-time for myself and my clients of late.  And I’m not going to stop now that they are 10-point home favorites here against the Seattle Seahawks.  This is once again too many points as the Rams continue to be overvalued due to their 8-1 record, previously 8-0 before they finally lost to the Saints last week, and I had the Saints as my 25* NFC GOTY. 

The Rams are now just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have won just one game by more than 7 points during this stretch, and that was against the 49ers.  And I certainly question the Rams’ motivation coming into this game.  They are in a ‘hangover’ spot from their loss to the Rams, and a ‘look-ahead’ spot because they play the Chiefs next week.  That makes this a sandwich game from them, and I’m not expecting their best effort. 

The Seahawks will be playing with revenge in mind after losing a 31-33 heartbreaker at home to the Rams in Seattle in the first meeting.  The Seahawks actually led that game by 7 points in the fourth quarter before getting outscored 9-0 in the final period to lose by two.  At 4-4 on the season, this feels like a make-or-break game for the Seahawks as well if they want any shot of making the playoffs. 

All four of Seattle’s losses this season came by 8 points or fewer, so they’ve been competitive in every game and haven’t lost yet by double-digits.  And this is the biggest underdog role of Russell Wilson’s career.  He’s never been a double-digit dog.  And Wilson is 3-0 ATS when listed as a dog of 7.5 points or more in his career. 

The Rams have some defensive problems right now.  They have allowed over 27 points per game int heir last six games coming in.  They haven’t been the same since losing Aqib Talib to injury, and their pass defense has suffered.  The Seahawks also rushed for 190 yards on the Rams in their first meeting.  The Rams are 24th in 3rd down defense.  The Seahawks are 7th in 3rd down defense.  The Seahawks are also 3rd in turnover differential this season, so they don’t beat themselves. 

I also think the Rams could be getting tired, which is another big reason I’ve faded them so frequently of late.  They are one of the few teams who have yet to have their bye week.  They don’t get their bye until Week 12 after they play the Chiefs, and by then they will certainly need it.  I also think the Rams have very little home-field advantage, as the Packers actually seemed like they were the home team when they played the Rams a few weeks ago. 

Pete Carroll is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams who average 7.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Seattle.  The Seahawks are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Rams are once again getting way too much respect from the books this week, and it will show up on the scoreboard as Seattle has a shot to win this game outright.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday. 

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions +7 

This is the perfect opportunity to ‘sell high’ on the Chicago Bears and ‘buy low’ on the Detroit Lions.  This line is maxed out with Chicago -7 as they should never be a 7-point favorite over the Lions.  But because the public has seen the Bears succeed lately and the Lions fail, oddsmakers have to set this line higher than it should be knowing the public will be quick to back the Bears. 

Chicago is coming off back-to-back wins and covers with a 24-10 home victory over the Jets, and a 41-9 road victory at the Bills.  Those are two of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Jets were banged up, especially at receiver with no weapons.  And the Bills gave the game away with four turnovers. 

There was no more misleading final score than Chicago 41-9 victory over the Bills last week.  Indeed, the Bears only managed 190 total yards in that game and were actually outgained by 74 yards by the Bills.  You read that right, the Bears had less than 200 total yards yet still scored 41 points.  I can’t remember the last time that happened.  So we’re getting extra value here due to that misleading score. 

Conversely, Detroit is coming off two straight poor performances.  They lost 14-28 at home to the Seahawks and 9-24 on the road to the Vikings.  Well, they had every chance to score in the red zone but committed 3 turnovers against Seattle.  And that was a Seahawks team coming off a bye, so it was a favorable spot for them.  And in the 9-24 loss to the Vikings the Lions played well defensively, giving up just 283 total yards.  Both of those games were closer than the final scores, and both were against two of the better teams in the NFC, not the weak competition Chicago has feasted on. 

Chicago’s five wins this season have come against the Seahawks, Cardinals, Bucs, Jets and Bills.  Those five teams are a combined 14-27 this season, and non has a winning record.  The Lions have beaten the Patriots and Packers, so they’ve proven they can play with anyone.  And I think we get a big effort from them here knowing their season is on the line.  A win and the Lions would pull within one game of first place in the NFC North.  A loss and they would be facing an insurmountable deficit, three games behind the Bears.  Detroit will be the more motivated team, hands down. 

Matthew Stafford clearly loves facing the Bears, as evidenced by Detroit’s domination in this series in recent years.  Indeed, the Lions are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Their only loss during this stretch came by a final of 14-17 at Soldier Field.  If the Bears win this game, it won’t be by more than 7 points.  There is a ton of value on the Lions this week. 

Plays against home teams (Chicago) who force 2.5 or more turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1983.  Their turnover luck has been great this season, and they can’t keep forcing turnovers at this rate.  And this just goes to show you how there’s value in fading a team coming off a 4-turnover game like the Bears had against the Bills last week. 

The Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after tailing their last two games by 10-plus points at halftime.  Detroit is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 road games off a loss by 14 points or more.  The Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  Take the Lions Sunday. 

20* Panthers/Steelers Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh -3 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are rolling right now.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with all four victories coming by at least 7 points and by an average of 13.3 points per game.  They should keep rolling tonight in this Thursday home matchup with the Carolina Panthers. 

The Panthers are also playing well having gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  But they are getting too much respect from the books and the betting public as this line has dropped from -5 down to -3. I certainly love the Steelers at -3 now and I’m glad I waited for it to keep dropping before pulling the trigger. 

The Panthers have done all their damage at home this season.  They’ve played five home games compared to just three road games.  The Panthers are 1-2 on the road this season, losing to the Falcons and Redskins while getting a fortunate win at Philadelphia after erasing a double-digit deficit in the 4th quarter.  They’re just not the same team on the highway. 

These Thursday night home teams have a huge advantage on these short weeks, and I don’t think that is being factored into the line here.  The home team is 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in Thursday games this season.  The only two teams that lost were the Giants and Cardinals, two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they were both underdogs to the Eagles and Broncos, respectively. 

Carolina is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games coming in.  The Steelers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Panthers.  Bet the Steelers Thursday. 

20* Titans/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -5 

The Cowboys can’t afford to fall further behind the Redskins in the NFC East, especially after losing to them last time out.  But they’ve had two weeks to recover after missing a potential game-tying field goal at the gun.  And I look for them to play with an attitude here Monday night against the Tennessee Titans. 

The vibes have to be pretty good in Dallas after management made a huge trade to get Amari Cooper.  The Cowboys had arguably the worst playmakers in the NFL at receiver prior to the trade, so Cooper is going to be worth a lot to this team.  And they’ve had nearly two weeks to get him acclimated to the offense. 

Having Cooper will help the play-action passing game flourish for sure.  Because the Cowboys are already great at running the ball, averaging 137 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  And they should have some success against a Titans defense that has allowed over 100 rushing yards in five of their seven games this season.  Plus, opposing teams like the Titans won’t be able to stack eight in the box to try and stop Zeke Elliott any more because the Prescott can make them pay. 

I really like this Dallas defense, though.  The Cowboys are giving up just 17.6 points and 313.7 yards per game this season.  They rank 2nd in scoring defense and 3rd in total defense this year.  That’s bad news for the Titans, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. 

Indeed, the Titans rank 30th in scoring offense (15.1 points/game) and 30th in total offense (280.9 yards/game).  Consider that only the Bills and Cardinals have been worse on offense, and those are two terrible offensives.  Those three units are far and away the three worst offenses in the league. 

Dallas has had some drastic home/road splits this season.  The Cowboys are 0-4 on the road, but 3-0 at home.  They are outscoring their opponents by 14.0 points per game in their three home games this year.  They are scoring 28.7 points per game and giving up just 14.7 points per game at home.  That’s why I’m not afraid to lay this big of a spread with the Cowboys as 5-point favorites.  They should have no problem winning by a touchdown or more. 

The Titans are very fortunate to be 3-4 this season.  All three of their wins came by exactly a field goal, and two of those were at home.  Their only road win came at Jacksonville in a huge letdown spot for the Jaguars off their win over the Patriots the previous week.  They also lost outright to both Miami and Buffalo on the road.  So I give them little chance of pulling off this upset, let alone staying within 5 points of the Cowboys. 

Dallas is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. poor offensive teams that average 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Cowboys are winning by 14.9 points per game on average in this spot.  Jason Garrett is 19-9 ATS vs. AFC opponents as the coach of the Cowboys.  The Titans are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Tennessee is 9-27-3 ATS in its last 39 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cowboys are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a bye week.  Dallas is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Cowboys Monday. 

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -1.5 

I won on the Packers last week fading the unbeaten Los Angeles Rams.  And I’m fading the Rams again this week.  They are simply overvalued due to their 8-0 record this season, and I’ve been fading them almost every week because of it.  No team is going to go 16-0, and this is the Rams’ best chance to lose a game to date when they have to travel to face the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome this week. 

The Rams have won four of their last five games by a touchdown or less and have gone 1-4 ATS in the process.  They are starting to show their vulnerabilities, and that 1-4 ATS run just shows how overvalued they’ve been.  Their four road wins have come against the Raiders, Seahawks, Broncos and 49ers.  They only beat the Seahawks by 2 and the Broncos by 3.  This will be by far the Rams’ stiffest road test to date. 

The Saints are winning with conviction of late.  They have reeled off six straight victories since their upset loss to the Bucs to open the season.  They have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Three of their last four wins have come by double-digits. 

The Saints are fresh after having a bye in Week 6.  They returned from that bye and went on the road to beat the Ravens and the Vikings, two impressive victories.  And now they return home to what will be a raucous home crowd Sunday afternoon with essentially first place on the line in the NFC. 

I think a big reason for the Rams’ recent struggles to put teams away is that they are simply getting tired.  They haven’t had their bye week yet and don’t get it until Week 12.  And after playing a dog fight against the Packers last week, I’m not sure what they’ll have left in the tank for the Saints this week. 

Todd Gurley has been a beast for the Rams this season.  But the Saints actually have what it takes to slow him down.  The Saints rank 1st in the NFL against the run this season, giving up just 74.1 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry.  It has been a big reason for their resurgence the last several weeks, and I look for it to be a key factor in why they win this game as well. 

The Saints are 8-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Rams are 30-62-1 ATS in their last 93 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  New Orleans is 24-5 ATS in its last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  When the Saints have to play a good team at home, they usually take care of business.  Finally, the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Bet the Saints Sunday. 

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -2 

I realize the Steelers are going to want revenge from their 26-14 home loss to the Ravens earlier this season.  That is definitely a factor, but I don’t think the Steelers will be any more motivated than the Ravens.  In fact, I actually think Baltimore is the more motivated team coming into this game. 

The Ravens are coming off back-to-back losses to the Saints and Panthers, and there’s no shame in those two losses.  But sitting at 4-4 on the season compared to 4-2-1 for the Steelers, this is essentially a must-win game for the Ravens.  They can’t afford to fall further behind the Steelers if they want to win the division.  And knowing that they have a bye on deck next week, the Ravens will be ‘all in’ Sunday to try and go into their bye with a win and some momentum heading into the second half of the season. 

I think there’s value getting the Ravens here as less than a field goal favorite.  The Steelers are starting to get some respect because of their three-game winning streak coming in.  But they beat a Falcons team that had all kinds of injury issues, beat a Bengals team that they have simply owned over the past decade, and their other win came against Cleveland off their bye week.  Those three wins aren’t impressive at all. 

It’s pretty clear to me that despite having the worse record, the Ravens are actually the better of these two teams.  The Ravens are outgaining their opponents by 85 yards per game this season.  That’s one of the best marks in the NFL.  They are led by a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL scoring defense (17.1 PPG), 1st in total defense (293.8 yarsd/game) and 1st in yards per play (4.7) allowed.  They also have a vastly improved offense this season that ranks 14th in total offense (379.2 yards/game). 

The Steelers are also a good team, outgaining opponents by 58 yards per game.  While impressive, it isn’t as good as the Ravens, and it’s largely due to the lack of competitive over the last three weeks.  The Steelers still have all kinds of issues on defense.  They are 16th in scoring defense (24.6 PPG) and 16th in total defense (359.7 yards/game). 

Pittsburgh didn’t score a single point against Baltimore in three of the four quarters in their first meeting.  The Ravens won that game 26-14, and Joe Flacco had a monster day.  He completed 28-of-42 passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns int he win.  He clearly knows how to beat this soft Pittsburgh defense, and I look for the Ravens to hang another big number on the Steelers in the rematch. 

Mike Tomlin is 2-9 ATS in road games after covering the spread in four of their last five games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t been nearly as good on the road as he has been at home in his career.  He is only averaging 22.4 points per game on the road.  And he has a 55-to-40 TD/INT ratio on the road compared to a 107-to-40 ratio at home.  John Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game as the coach of Baltimore.  The Ravens are coming back to win by 10 points per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +10 

Betting on teams after they fire their head coach is usually a great spot to do so.  Teams get rejuvenated for one week with a new voice, and that should be the case here for the Cleveland Browns.  I love them catching nearly double-digits at home this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, and I expect one of their best efforts of the season here. 

The Chiefs are overvalued due to their 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS start to the season.  You’re starting to have to pay a tax on them.  I faded the Chiefs last week with success as they were 10-point favorites over the Broncos and won by 7.  I’m fading them again this week, this time as 10-point road favorites, but I like the Browns all the way down to +7 in this one if you can’t get the great line that I did. 

So we’ll ‘sell high’ on the Chiefs and ‘buy low’ on the Browns, who are coming off three straight losses.  But the Browns are 2-1-1 at home this season with their only loss to the Chargers.  They beat the Jets and Ravens, and tied the Steelers.  So they’ve already played two of the best teams in the AFC in the Ravens and Steelers and stood toe-to-toe with them at home. 

Greg Williams is a great defensive coordinator, and the Browns still have a very good defense.  Their problem has been against the run, but they’ve been good against the pass, making this a great matchup for them.  The Browns are holding opposing quarterbacks to just 6.7 yards per attempt against QB’s that average 7.6 yards per attempt, so they’re holding them 0.9 yards per attempt less than their season averages. 

The Browns should be able to really get their offense going this week against a Kansas City defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  Indeed, the Chiefs rank 31st in total defense, giving up 432.4 yards per game.  They are also 27th in yards per play (6.3) allowed.  That’s why the Chiefs can’t sustain this success is because they have a terrible defense.  And they have some key injuries on defense with Eric Berry doubtful, and starting LB’s Justin Houston and Anthony Hitchens questionable.  The Chiefs also give up 5.4 yards per carry while the Browns have been running the ball well, averaging 127 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  They can control the ball with their running game and keep Mahomes off the field. 

Kansas City is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in four consecutive games coming in.  It is actually losing outright by 1.7 points per game in this spot.  The Browns are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  There is a ton of value catching the Browns as more than TD home underdogs this weekend.  Take the Browns Sunday. 

15* Raiders/49ers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 45.5 

We have the 1-7 San Francisco 49ers against the 1-6 Oakland Raiders Thursday night.  It’s two teams who have little to play for but pride the rest of the way.  And I certainly like backing OVERS in games when this is the case.  The offenses almost always show up in these primetime games between bad teams, but whether or not the defenses show up is another story. 

And it’s not like either of these two teams have played much defense up to this point, especially Oakland.  The Raiders are giving up 31.1 points and 407.4 yards per game this season.  The 49ers are allowing 29.5 points and 364.4 yards per game. 

Both offenses have actually been pretty good.  The Raiders are averaging 369.7 yards per game and the 49ers 348.2 yards per game.  Derek Carr is still having a solid season, and with the Raiders losing Marshawn Lynch, he’s actually had to throw more.  That means more points and more clock stoppages without the threat of a running game.   

The 49ers have put up some very good offensive showings against the Chargers and Packers even with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  They had 27 points against the Chargers and 30 against the Packers.  They did not play well against the Rams or Cardinals in the other games that Beathard has started, but now they are up against the worst defense they’ve faced this season in the Raiders tonight.  They should have one of their best offensive outputs of the season. 

I realize the 49ers have some injuries on offense, and the Raiders traded away Amari Cooper, but I’m not worried.  The Raiders have such a bad defense that even though they’re healthy they still can’t stop anyone.  And the 49ers have worse injuries on defense than on offense.  They are missing SS Jaquiski Tartt and starting LB Reuben Foster, not to mention CB Richard Sherman is questionable. 

Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (San Francisco) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival.  The OVER is 18-6-3 in Raiders last 27 games in November.  The OVER is 8-0 in Raiders last eight games in Week 9.  The OVER is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games overall, including 4-1 in they last five home games.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Patriots/Bills AFC East ANNIHILATOR on New England -13.5 

I rarely take double-digit favorites in the NFL.  In fact, I can’t remember the last time I took a double-digit road favorite.  That being said, I think the Patriots can cover this 13.5-point spread at Buffalo this week.  The Bills are the new Cleveland Browns of the NFL this season, especially without Josh Allen at quarterback. 

Allen injured his elbow two weeks ago against the Texans with the Bills actually leading late.  Nathan Peterman came in and through one of his patented pick-six’s, and the rest was history.  The Bills new they couldn’t even be competitive with Peterman, so they signed Derek Anderson out of retirement. 

That experiment didn’t work either.  The Bills were routed 37-5 at Indianapolis last week and committed five turnovers.  Anderson is expected to get the start again this week, and while he should be a little sharper, I don’t think he stands much of a chance of making the Bills competitive.  Especially not against a team that caliber of the Patriots. 

The Patriots have been a juggernaut ever since opening 1-2.  They added Josh Gordon and got Julian Edelman back from suspension, and their offense has taken off.  The Patriots are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only non-cover was a 3-point win over the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites. 

The Patriots have scored at least 38 points in four consecutive games while averaging 39.3 points per game during this span.  I think they can get to 38-plus here against the Bills, which should be more than enough to cover this 13.5-point spread. 

The Bills are dead last in scoring offense at 11.6 points per game and 31st in total offense at 234.0 yards per game.  I just don’t see how they can possibly generate enough offense with Anderson at quarterback and the worst receivers in the NFL to hang with the Patriots. 

The Patriots are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Buffalo.  They have won their last three meetings with the Bills by 21, 20 and 16 points.  And those were better Buffalo teams than this 2018 version.  New England is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games.  The Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a losing record.  There will be no letdown for Tom Brady and company on Monday Night Football.  Bet the Patriots Monday. 

20* Packers/Rams NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +10.5 

Aaron Rodgers has never been this big of an underdog as a starting quarterback in his career.  So from a value perspective, I love getting Rodgers as a double-digit underdog here against the Los Angeles Rams.  Rodgers is 4-0 ATS lifetime as an underdog of 6 points or more. 

Plus, the Packers are coming off their bye week, so they’ll be rested an ready to go.  The bye week has allowed several players to get healthy, including tackles Brian Bulaga and Jason Spriggs, CB Breshaud Breeland, and WR’s Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison.  Rodgers should have his full complement of weapons on offense for the first time this season.  And the Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. 

The Rams are clearly overvalued due to their 7-0 start.  They are the last unbeaten team in the NFL, and the betting public flocks to unbeaten teams.  With that record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  The Rams are good, but they are not 10 points better than the Packers. 

The Packers are 3-2-1 this season, but their numbers suggest they are a better team than that.  They are putting up 421 yards per game on offense and giving up just 328 yards per game on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 93 yards per game, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.  They have what it takes to hang with the Rams for four quarters.  And with Rodgers under center they’ll never be out of it. 

The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Rams.  I think this is a tough spot for the Rams off three straight road games.  Teams on the road this long are always tired when they get home, and there are more obligations when they get home.  It’s a big distraction, and I think it will be for the Rams here. 

Mike McCarthy is 11-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in three of the last four games as the coach of Green Bay.  The Rams are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.  The Rams are overvalued off their blowout win over the 49ers last week.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

Note: The Packers are a 20* all the way down to +7.5.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +10.5 

The Kansas City Chiefs are getting a lot of love from the betting public right now.  They are not only 6-1 SU, but also 7-0 ATS this season.  They are the only team that has covered the spread on every closing line this year.  Of course that’s going to attract betting from the public. 

But this line has gotten out of hand this week.  The Chiefs are now 10.5-point home favorites over the Broncos.  This is a Broncos team that gave the Chiefs one of their toughest games of the season in Denver.  They only lost 23-27 after blowing a late 10-point lead in the fourth quarter.  Now, just four weeks later, they get their shot at revenge. 

I love the spot for the Broncos because of the revenge, but also because they have extra rest here.  They played last Thursday in what was a must-win game and came through with their best performance of the season.  They throttled Arizona 45-10 as 1-point road favorites.  But they are getting no credit for that win, while the Chiefs are getting a ton of love after beating the Bengals 45-10 on Sunday Night Football. 

The Chiefs have been getting by with bad defense as they rank dead last in total defense at 435.4 yards per game allowed.  They are only outgaining opponents by 2 yards per game on the season.  That’s not the sign of a team that should be 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS.  At some point, it’s going to catch up with them being this bad defensively. 

Compare their numbers to Denver and these are two pretty evenly matched teams.  The Broncos are also getting outgained by two years per game this season.  They have a vastly improved offense that is putting up 23.6 points and 376.4 yards per game this season.  Their defense has a lot more talent than the numbers have shown to this point as they’re giving up 23.4 points and 378 yards per game.   

They held the Chiefs to just 13 points in the first 53 minutes last meeting, so they know what it takes to slow them down.  Now they just got to find a way to stop the Chiefs late if they want to pull off the upset.  The good news is they don’t have to win this game for us to win, they just have to stay within 10 points, which shouldn’t be a problem.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ravens/Panthers UNDER 44 

I’m shocked to see a total this high between two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers and Baltimore Ravens.  I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this matchup Sunday in what will be a good old-fashioned defensive battle. 

The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game allowed.  They are also 1st in total defense at 280.6 yards per game allowed.  The Panthers are 10th in scoring defense at 21.8 points per game, and 13th in total defense at 355.3 yards per game. 

Both of these teams like to run the football and both have suspect quarterback play and weapons.  The Ravens have been a lot worse offensively on the road than at home. They are scoring just 19.7 points per game on the road this season. 

The UNDER is 5-0 in Ravens last five games overall.  They have seen 41 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  The only exception was the 47 points against New Orleans last week, but that game still stayed UNDER the 49-point total.  And that’s the Saints, not the Panthers, a team with a better defense but a lot worse offense than New Orleans. 

The UNDER is 35-14-2 in Ravens last 51 games after gaining more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Ravens last five road games.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Panthers last 28 home games vs. teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* Dolphins/Texans AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston -7.5 

Most folks wrote the Houston Texans off after an 0-3 start.  But a closer look at the numbers showed that they simply were unfortunate to lose all three games.  They were outgained by 64 yards at New England, but they outgained Tennessee by 154 yards and New York by 48 yards and probably should have won both of those games. 

Since then the Texans have reeled off four straight victories and are currently in first place in the AFC South.  And they have a great opportunity here to grab a stranglehold on the division with a win over the Miami Dolphins Thursday night.  I think they win in blowout fashion here at home tonight. 

The numbers show the Texans are one of the better teams in the NFL.  They are outgaining opponents by 42 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play on the season.  Watson and the offense are moving the football at will, and JJ Watt and the defense are playing at a very high level.  They have allowed 7, 13 and 16 points in their last three games, respectively. 

I think this Houston defense will feast on a banged-up Miami offense that is playing with a backup QB and has several injury concerns at receiver.  Brock Osweiler will start in place of Ryan Tannehill.  And he’ll be without his two best weapons in Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson, while DeVante Parker and Danny Amendola will both be playing through injury.  Stills is averaging 17.6 YPC with 4 touchdowns while Wilson is averaging 15.0 YPC with 4 touchdowns.  That’s two huge losses. 

The Dolphins are not a very good team as they’re a fraudulent 4-3 this season.  They are actually getting outgained by 76 yards per game this season.  The problem I have with Miami is their defense, which is giving up 405.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  They are soft at the line is scrimmage, giving up 137 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They’re also allowing 269 passing yards per game and 8.0 per attempt. 

Adam Gase is 0-7 ATS in road games off a loss as the coach of Miami.  The Dolphins are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing 400 or more yards per game in their last three games.  Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Texans Thursday. 

25* MNF PARLAY OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +6/OVER 54 

Reasons the Giants Cover: 

The Giants are coming off an embarrassing 13-34 home loss to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football last week.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, so this is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on them catching more points than they should be at Atlanta this week. 

It also means the Giants get extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  I like backing teams with extra prep time because it is a huge advantage in the NFL.  It gives their players time to heal up, and the coaching staff more time to game plan for the opponent. 

And that 13-34 loss to the Eagles was very misleading.  The Giants actually outgained the Eagles by 22 yards in that contest, so there’s no way they should have lost by 21.  In fact, the Giants are only getting obtained by 9.7 yards per game on the season.  That shows me that they are way better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  And with how bad the NFC East has been this season, they still have hope to make a run and win the division. 

The Falcons cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number right now.  They are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  Their two wins were somewhat fortunate as they beat a banged-up Panthers team 31-24 at home with Carolina having a chance to tie on the final drive.  Then last week they got a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant with just over a minute left to take a 34-29 lead over the Bucs, and then their defense held in the red zone to save the game.  They covered as 3-point favorites, and I think they are getting too much respect for that win. 

Well, Bryant ruptured his hamstring making that 57-yarder, and he has been one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL for years.  Add him to the laundry list of injuries for the Falcons now.  Also add Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu, two of their three best receivers who left that Bucs game with injuries.  Both are probable to play this week but won’t be at 100%.  And Devonta Freeman remains out with a foot injury. 

The real issue for the Falcons right now is injuries to their defense.  They have lost three starters to season-ending injuries in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen.  Plus, fellow starter Grady Jarrett has missed the last few weeks with an ankle injury and is questionable to return this week.  They simply haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and their defense has been horrendous, giving up 32.0 points and 417.5 yards per game.  They can’t be trusted to cover this 6-point spread with that defense.  Their defense will make even Eli Manning look like a first ballot Hall of Famer. 

Reasons for the OVER: 

The OVER is 5-0 in Falcons last five games overall.  They have combined for 55, 80, 73, 58 and 63 points in their last five games, respectively.  That’s an average of 65.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points more than this 54-point total.  Also, playing the OVER on Monday Night Football games when the home team has a bye next week is 39-12 in the last 51 tries. 

This is a Falcons defense that has been lit up for 37.5 points and 458.5 yardsper game over the last four weeks.  Saquon Barkley had a monster game against the Eagles last week with 229 yards (130 rushing, 99 receiving) from scrimmage.  He will have a field day against this Atlanta defense.  And the Giants aren’t short on playmakers outside with Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. 

The problem for the Giants on offense up to this point is that they’ve played arguably the toughest schedule in the entire NFL, and certainly the toughest schedule of opposing defenses to this point.  They’ve played the Jags, Cowboys, Texans, Saints, Panthers and Eagles.  Five of those six defenses are elite, while the Saints have been playing great on that side of the ball of late.   

This will be the worst opposing defense the Giants have faced by far, and it should lead to their biggest scoring output of the season.  And they still managed 27 points at Houston and 31 points at Carolina in their last two road games, so they have proven their offense can travel. 

Obviously I don’t want the Falcons scoring too much so that the Giants can cover the +6.  But I do think they’ll come close to their season averages of 27.8 points and 397 yards per game in this one.  I’m not naive enough to think the Giants will shut them down because the Falcons do have one of their best offenses in the league.  My best guess is that the Giants win this game in the 31-28 neighborhood.

Note: I don’t recommend betting parlays often because they are not good bets.  Make sure to bet both plays separate at the normal 25* amount.  Whether or not you parlay is up to you.  But I plan on going 2-0. Bet the Giants and the OVER.

25* MNF PARLAY OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +6/OVER 54 

Reasons the Giants Cover: 

The Giants are coming off an embarrassing 13-34 home loss to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football last week.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, so this is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on them catching more points than they should be at Atlanta this week. 

It also means the Giants get extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  I like backing teams with extra prep time because it is a huge advantage in the NFL.  It gives their players time to heal up, and the coaching staff more time to game plan for the opponent. 

And that 13-34 loss to the Eagles was very misleading.  The Giants actually outgained the Eagles by 22 yards in that contest, so there’s no way they should have lost by 21.  In fact, the Giants are only getting obtained by 9.7 yards per game on the season.  That shows me that they are way better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  And with how bad the NFC East has been this season, they still have hope to make a run and win the division. 

The Falcons cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number right now.  They are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  Their two wins were somewhat fortunate as they beat a banged-up Panthers team 31-24 at home with Carolina having a chance to tie on the final drive.  Then last week they got a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant with just over a minute left to take a 34-29 lead over the Bucs, and then their defense held in the red zone to save the game.  They covered as 3-point favorites, and I think they are getting too much respect for that win. 

Well, Bryant ruptured his hamstring making that 57-yarder, and he has been one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL for years.  Add him to the laundry list of injuries for the Falcons now.  Also add Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu, two of their three best receivers who left that Bucs game with injuries.  Both are probable to play this week but won’t be at 100%.  And Devonta Freeman remains out with a foot injury. 

The real issue for the Falcons right now is injuries to their defense.  They have lost three starters to season-ending injuries in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen.  Plus, fellow starter Grady Jarrett has missed the last few weeks with an ankle injury and is questionable to return this week.  They simply haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and their defense has been horrendous, giving up 32.0 points and 417.5 yards per game.  They can’t be trusted to cover this 6-point spread with that defense.  Their defense will make even Eli Manning look like a first ballot Hall of Famer. 

Reasons for the OVER: 

The OVER is 5-0 in Falcons last five games overall.  They have combined for 55, 80, 73, 58 and 63 points in their last five games, respectively.  That’s an average of 65.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points more than this 54-point total.  Also, playing the OVER on Monday Night Football games when the home team has a bye next week is 39-12 in the last 51 tries. 

This is a Falcons defense that has been lit up for 37.5 points and 458.5 yardsper game over the last four weeks.  Saquon Barkley had a monster game against the Eagles last week with 229 yards (130 rushing, 99 receiving) from scrimmage.  He will have a field day against this Atlanta defense.  And the Giants aren’t short on playmakers outside with Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. 

The problem for the Giants on offense up to this point is that they’ve played arguably the toughest schedule in the entire NFL, and certainly the toughest schedule of opposing defenses to this point.  They’ve played the Jags, Cowboys, Texans, Saints, Panthers and Eagles.  Five of those six defenses are elite, while the Saints have been playing great on that side of the ball of late.   

This will be the worst opposing defense the Giants have faced by far, and it should lead to their biggest scoring output of the season.  And they still managed 27 points at Houston and 31 points at Carolina in their last two road games, so they have proven their offense can travel. 

Obviously I don’t want the Falcons scoring too much so that the Giants can cover the +6.  But I do think they’ll come close to their season averages of 27.8 points and 397 yards per game in this one.  I’m not naive enough to think the Giants will shut them down because the Falcons do have one of their best offenses in the league.  My best guess is that the Giants win this game in the 31-28 neighborhood.

Note: I don’t recommend betting parlays often because they are not good bets.  Make sure to bet both plays separate at the normal 25* amount.  Whether or not you parlay is up to you.  But I plan on going 2-0. Bet the Giants and the OVER.

15* Bengals/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -5.5 

Clearly the oddsmakers can’t catch up to how good the Chiefs really are this season.  They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their six games.  And now they’re laying less than a touchdown at home to a Cincinnati team that I believe is the overvalued one of these two squads. 

I went against the Bengals last week with the Steelers.  And though the Steelers scored in the final seconds to win 28-21, they dominated that game by outgaining the Bengals by 206 yards.  Keep in mind that the Chiefs went on the road and beat the Steelers 42-37, while the Bengals lost at home to the Steelers. 

Despite their 4-2 record, the Bengals have actually been outgained in four of tier six games this season.  They are getting outgained by 57 yards per game on the season.  That’s not something you normally see from a 4-2 team, and it’s clearly a sign that the Bengals are overrated. 

What’s most remarkable about this 5-1 start by the Chiefs is that they’ve played a really tough schedule.  They have played four road games and only two home games.  They are 3-1 on the road with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal 43-40 at New England.  They are 2-0 at home with two double-digit victories over the 49ers and the Jaguars. 

Both teams have bad defenses, there’s no denying that as each is giving up over 400 yards per game this season.  But the Chiefs have the better offense, and it’s not really even close.  They are scoring 35.8 points per game this season.  Patrick Mahomes has been unstoppable, and they’ve only committed five turnovers in six games.  I don’t believe Andy Dalton has what it takes to match Mahomes score for score in this one. 

The Chiefs are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game.  Kansas City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall and simply continues to be undervalued week after week.  They should be at least 7-point home favorites over the Bengals this week.  Take the Chiefs Sunday night. 

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco +10 

I faded the Rams last week with the Broncos and I’m fading them again here.  The betting public loves to bet the undefeated teams like the Rams.  They are 6-0 this season, but the odds are starting to catch up with them as they are now the most overvalued team in the NFL in my opinion. 

They were 7-point home favorites against the Vikings three weeks ago and didn’t cover.  They were 7-point road favorites at the Seahawks and needed a late rally to win that game 33-31 and failed to cover.  And last week they led the Broncos in the back door in a 23-20 road win as 7-point favorites.  So they easily could have lost those three games. 

Now the Rams are being asked to go on the road against a division rival and lay double-digits here to the San Francisco 49ers.  This is my favorite play Sunday on the 49ers.  And the Rams have all kinds of injury concerns right now.  Cooper Kupp is out with a knee injury, Aqib Talib is out with an ankle injury, and Michael Brockers may not play due to a shoulder injury. 

The betting public wants nothing to do with the 1-5 49ers who lost Jimmy G to a season-ending injury in a Week 3 loss at Kansas City.  They have gone 0-3 since his injury with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  But a closer look shows that the 49ers could easily be 3-0 instead of 0-3 with Beathard, and it’s that hidden fact that provides the value here. 

Three weeks ago the 49ers only lost 27-29 at the Chargers are 10.5-point road underdogs.  They were only outgained by 4 yards in that game.  Their offense put up a respectable 364 total yards.  Two weeks ago they 49ers lost 18-28 at home to the Cardinals, but that was one of the most misleading finals of the year.  The 49ers racked up 447 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards, but lost the turnover battle 5-0.  And last week they led the Packers 30-23 late in the 4th quarter before giving up 10 unanswered points to lose 33-30. 

Once again, the 49ers had no problem moving the football on the Packers as they amassed 401 total yards, but lost the turnover battle 3-0.  So this offense has put up an average of 25.0 points and 404 yards per game with Beathard at QB the last three weeks, numbers that would rank up there toward the tops in the NFL in terms of offensive production.  But they have lost the turnover battle 10-1 in those three games, yet still had a great chance to win all three.  If they can simply cut down on turnovers they will be just fine. 

And the Rams haven’t been great at forcing turnovers this season as they’ve forced one or fewer in four games.  This is a Rams defense that has been gashed by the Vikings, Seahawks and Broncos the last three weeks.  They are giving up 27.3 points and 392 yards per game on average in those three contests.  The 49ers should have no problem moving the ball and putting up points on them, matching them score for score. 

San Francisco has simply had Los Angeles’ number in recent years.  Indeed, the 49ers are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Their only loss was a 2-point loss at home to Jared Goff and the Rams by a final of 41-39 last year as 3-point underdogs.  And that was with Brian Hoyer at quarterback.  They are now 10-point home underdogs a year later in the rematch.  That just goes to show you the kind of line value we are getting with the 49ers here. 

The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a SU win.  The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Rams.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Saints/Ravens Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore -2.5 

I was on the Ravens last week as my free pick when they dominated the Titans 21-0.  The shocking stat out of that game is that the Ravens recorded 11 sacks while Marcus Mariota completed just 10 passes.  It was just another feat by this Ravens defense that has been the best in the league by far. 

In fact, the Ravens haven’t allowed a touchdown in the 2nd half of a game yet this season.  They are the first team in over 80 yards who hasn’t allowed a second-half touchdown through six games.  It just shows that they are getting better as the game goes along and making all the right adjustments at halftime. 

The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense and total defense.  They are giving up just 12.8 points and 271 yards per game on defense.  And Joe Flacco has plenty of playmakers on offense to get the job done this year.  The Ravens rank 9th in the NFL in total offense at 393 yards per game.  The Ravens are outgaining teams by 122 yards per game this season, which is the best mark in the NFL. 

I think the Saints come into this game overvalued due to a four-game winning streak, including three straight covers against the Falcons, Giants and Redskins.  Their other win was a 3-point home victory over the Browns. 

Some bye weeks are better than others.  When a team like the Saints has momentum, they don’t want a bye week.  They will be going into their bye week fat and happy off their blowout win over the Redskins with Drew Brees setting the all-time passing record.  We saw last week the Bears coming off a blowout win over the Bucs and off their bye fall flat on their faces against the Dolphins and lose outright as 7-point favorites. 

The Saints are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games coming in.  The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in their previous game.  Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. at team with a winning record.  The Ravens are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Saints. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (New Orlando) - off three or more consecutive ATS wins, in the first half of the season are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  This trend just shows that there is value going against road teams who are on an extended ATS winning streak like the Saints are.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

15* Broncos/Cardinals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -1 

John Elway has called out the Broncos.  From players to coaches, everyone is on the hot seat now.  And I think that the Broncos will be playing with more of a sense of urgency than most Thursday night road teams would be.  That’s why I’m willing to lay the points with them on the road here.  It also helps that they’re playing arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals. 

“At some point in time, we have to play better football.  We’re still making the mistakes we shouldn’t make to beat good football teams like the Rams,” Elway told Orange and Blue 760 radio. “It’s disappointing, that’s for sure. Hopefully we can take a mentality into that Thursday night game where we’re fighting for our lives.” 

Denver is in the midst of a four-game losing streak.  But they were underdogs in all four games, so it’s not a surprise.  They lost on the road to the Ravens and Jets, and they lost at home to the Chiefs and Rams.  But the Chiefs and Rams are arguably the two best teams in the NFL, and they nearly beat both.  They blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead to the Chiefs to lost 23-27, and they gave the Rams all they wanted in a 20-23 defeat. 

Now the Broncos get their easiest game of the season to this point here against the Cardinals.  This is a Cardinals team that ranks dead last in scoring offense at 13.7 points per game and dead last in total offense at 220.5 yards per game. 

Defensively, the Cardinals haven’t been much better, giving up 394.3 yards per game this season.  So they are getting outgained by a ridiculous 174 yards per game this season, which is far and away the worst mark in the NFL, which is why I would argue that they are the worst team in the league. 

The Cardinals are 1-5 this season, and their only win this year came at home 28-18 over the 49ers.  But that was perhaps the most misleading score of the entire season.  The 49ers outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards in that game and should have won.  But the Cardinals won the turnover battle 5-0, which was the difference. 

Plays on road teams (Denver) with a poor defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games are 32-12 (72.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Broncos have gone 8-1 SU in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals.  Denver is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  They just have to win the game to cover this small number, and they should do just that.  Take the Broncos Thursday. 

20* 49ers/Packers MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 46 

I think this total is lower than it should be Monday night between the Packers and 49ers.  And a big reason for that is because the perception is that both of these offenses struggled in their last games, but the reality is that both of them moved the football at will, it just didn’t show up on the scoreboard. 

The Packers had 521 total yards against the Lions last week, including 423 passing, yet only managed 23 points.  Well a big reason for that was they had to settle for a bunch of field goals, and Mason Crosby missed three field goals and an extra point, which is basically 10 points off the board that they would have had otherwise. 

For the 49ers, they had 447 total yards against the Cardinals, including 300 passing, but only got 18 points out of it.  Their demise were the five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  I have to think that both offenses will fare better on the scoreboard this week if they continue moving the ball like they did last week, especially against these two weak defenses. 

Both teams have all kinds of injuries on defense right now.  The Packers lost DE Muhammad Wilkerson to a season-ending injury.  Starting CB Devon House is out, as is starting ILB Jake Ryan.  Fellow OLB Nick Perry is questionable, and CB’s Breshaud Breeland, Kevin King and Jaire Alexander is questionable.  For the 49ers, they could be without starting FS Jimmie Ward, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. 

The 49ers are already giving up 29.2 points per game this season.  The Packers should have no problem moving the football and scoring points on them.  This is an elite Packers offense that is averaging 401 yards per game and 6.1 per play against teams that only allow 338 yards per game.  They have played a tough schedule of opposing defenses, and the 49ers may have the worst defense that they’ve faced yet. 

I know Jimmy G is out with a season-ending injury, but the 49ers have had no problem moving the ball with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  He led the 49ers to 27 points and 364 total yards against the Chargers in his first start two weeks ago.  Then he led them to 447 total yards against a good Arizona defense last week.  I expect the Packers to get to 30 and the 49ers to get to at least 20 in this game, which would easily take care of this 46-point total. 

The OVER is 10-2 in Packers last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 21-5 in Packers last 26 vs. NFC opponents.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Green Bay is 9-1 OVER vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 7-0 in 49ers last seven games on grass.  The OVER is 4-0 in 49ers last four games overall.  These last three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -3 

The Patriots are actually undervalued right now because they got off to a poor start this season.  They opened 1-2 with ugly road losses to Jacksonville and Detroit.  But they’ve gotten healthier these last few weeks, and it has shown with back-to-back wins and covered at home against Miami (38-7) as 6.5-point favorites and Indianapolis (38-24) as 10.5-point favorites. 

Now the Patriots have extra rest after beating the Colts last Thursday in what was a 24-3 game at the half as they coasted to victory after intermission.  And their offense is much more dynamic now.  Josh Gordon has a few games under his belt now and showed what he could bring to this team with a huge TD catch in double-coverage against the Colts.  And Julian Edelman returned from a four-game suspension last week, catching seven balls for 57 yards.  This now has the potential to be one of the best offenses in the NFL moving forward with the likes of Edelman, Gronk, Gordon, Chris Hogan, Sony Michel and James White leading the way. 

The Chiefs clearly come into this game overvalued now after opening the season 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS.  They are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers here as only 3-point road underdogs to the Patriots.  I think New England’s home field is worth more than 3 points, and so this line suggests that Kansas City is actually the better team.  I beg to differ, and I think that shows on the field Sunday night. 

No question the Chiefs have a great offense that is hitting on all cylinders.  But I don’t think their offense is any more dynamic than New England’s currently.  And there’s no doubt that the Patriots have the better defense, giving up 21.6 points and 366 yards per game.  The Chiefs are giving up 25.8 points and 462 yards per game, ranking dead last in the NFL in total defense.  You can’t rank last in total defense and be considered the best team in the NFL.  It will catch up with them sooner rather than later, starting this week. 

Last week’s 30-14 win over Jacksonville was a misleading final.  The Jaguars racked up 502 total yards on the Chiefs, including 401 passing.  But they committed five turnovers, including one that was returned for a touchdown, and several others that led to scores.  Patrick Mahomes actually threw his first two interceptions of the season without a touchdown in that contest.  The Chiefs were very fortunate to win as Blake Bortles simply gave the game away.  Tom Brady won’t make those same mistakes, and he will score almost every time he touches the football against this putrid Kansas City defense. 

Keep in mind the Patriots also want revenge from a 42-27 home loss to the Chiefs in their season opener last year.  They were embarrassed in that game and have not forgotten.  And if anyone can scheme up a game plan to stop Patrick Mahomes, especially with extra time to prepare, it’s certainly Bill Belichick. 

New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less, winning by 12.4 points per game on average.  The Patriots are 7-0 ATS vs. excellent offensive teams that are averaging 6 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  New England is 7-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 235 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 23-1 system backing New England.  Bet the Patriots Sunday night. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +7 

The Los Angeles Rams are 5-0 and the talk of the league right now.  It seems as though everyone is already trying to crown them Super Bowl champs.  But with that 5-0 start and all the hype comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough for them to live up to. 

The Rams were laying 7 points to the Vikings two weeks ago and won by 7.  Then they were asked to lay 7 points on the road to the Seahawks last week and needed a last-second field goal to win 33-31.  And now they’re once again being asked to lay 7 points on the road to the Denver Broncos this week. 

The Rams have mounting injury problems right now.  Both Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks were knocked out of that Seattle game with concussions and did not return in the second half.  Tight end Tyler Higbee also suffered an injury that forced him out of action.  All three players are questionable, leaving this offense lacking playmakers heading into this game with the Broncos. 

Defensively, the Rams are missing cornerback Aqib Talib, and fellow corner Marcus Peters is playing through injury and was torched time and time again last week.  This is a Rams defense that has not lived up to expectations, giving up a combined 62 points to the Vikings and Seahawks the last two weeks. 

The Broncos come in hungry for a victory Sunday.  They have lost three in a row, though two of those were on the road, and the other was at home to the unbeaten Chiefs.  They are a much better home team, going 2-1 with wins over the Seahawks and Raiders.  And they gave the Chiefs their toughest test of the season, actually leading by double-digits in the 4th quarter before losing 23-27.  They were driving with a chance to win in the closing seconds. 

Denver’s offense certainly has what it takes to move the ball and score points against this Rams’ defense. The Broncos rank 12th in the league in total offense at 393.4 yards per game.  They will be able to run the football on the Rams just like the Seahawks did last week, rushing for 190 yards.  The Rams are giving up 5.0 yards per carry this season.  The Broncos are averaging 5.6 yards per carry as their running game has been the strength.  Look for them to try and control the clock with their running game and keep Jared Goff off the field. 

With the weather report, there’s no question the running game will be huge in this matchup.  On Sunday there is a 90% chance of snow with a high of 28 degrees.  That will help level the playing field here for the Broncos.  The Rams are a warm-weather team and are clearly not used to those kinds of conditions.  The Broncos are used to them, and that will be a huge advantage for them in this one. 

Denver is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. excellent teams that are outscoring opponents by 10-plus points per game.  The Broncos are simply a different animal at home, and they’ll be fired up for this one with the undefeated Rams coming to town.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 

The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 2-2-1 on the season.  They are 1.5 games behind the 4-1 Cincinnati Bengals.  All of a sudden this is a much bigger game for the Steelers than it is for the Bengals.  And because of that, among many other reasons, I think the Steelers will win this game outright simply because they need it more. 

The Steelers simply own the Bengals.  They are 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  In fact, the Steelers are 8-1 in their last nine trips to Cincinnati.  And Big Ben loves playing in his home state of Ohio.  Big Ben is 25-4-1 in 30 career games in Ohio. 

Back in the summer, the Steelers were -4 against the Bengals in this game.  So from what we’ve seen through only five games, oddsmakers have made a 6.5-point adjustment off that number.  I think there’s a ton of value here with the Steelers this week as they are the better team in this matchup. 

The Bengals are getting respect because they are 4-1.  However, they could easily be 0-5 instead.  They got a late defensive touchdown against the Colts in Week 1 to seal that game.  The only game they played well from the start was their Thursday night home win over the Ravens, but playing on Thursday night at home is a huge advantage as those teams are 5-0 this season. 

The Bengals lost 21-31 on the road to the Panthers in Week 3.  They scored on a last-second play to beat the Falcons 37-36, which was a Falcons team that was extremely banged up.  And it’s worth noting the Steelers beat the Falcons 41-17 last week.  And then last week the Bengals erased a 17-0 deficit at home to the Dolphins to win 27-17 thanks to a pair of late defensive touchdowns. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cincinnati) - with a poor first half defense that is allowing 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Steelers are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Steelers are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Cincinnati. 

This is a Bengals defense that is allowing 26.0 points and 394.8 yards per game this season.  Again, they’re very fortunate to be 4-1 with that defense.  The Steelers, who are averaging 28.6 points and 405 yards per game, will light them up this week.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday. 

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43.5 

Both Philadelphia and New York have shown signs of life offensively in recent weeks.  I think this is a pretty low total at 43.5 tonight for an NFL game that features two offenses with plenty of playmakers.  Look for this game to sail OVER the total Thursday night. 

The Eagles now have three games with Carson Wentz at quarterback.  They have been moving the football just fine with Wentz and should continue to do so against the Giants this week.  They had 382 yards against the Colts, 432 against the Titans and 364 against the Vikings the last three weeks, respectively.  And they have topped 20 points in all three games. 

The Giants got off to a rough start offensively this season against two great defenses in Jacksonvilleand Dallas.  But they have been much sharper the last three weeks.  They scored 27 with 379 total yards against Houston in Week 3.  And last week they scored 31 with 432 total yards against Carolina. 

The biggest problem for the Giants has been their defense, which has given up at least 20 points in every game, including 33 each the last two weeks to the Saints and Panthers.  And it’s not like the Eagles have been great defensively as they have given up 23, 26, and 27 points in three of their last four games coming in. 

The Giants can’t run the ball, but that’s not a problem because the Eagles can’t stop the pass, giving up 277 yards per game.  The Eagles are good against the run, so the Giants won’t even test it that much.  This is a game that will be played mostly through the air, especially with the injuries the Eagles have at running back.  That will lead to more clock stoppages and ultimately more points. 

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The Giants and Eagles have combined for 63, 51, 43, 51 and 65 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That’s an average of 54.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points per game more than this 43.5-point total.  There’s clearly value with the OVER here tonight.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday. 

20* Redskins/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Washington +7 

I believe the Washington Redskins are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL at this point in the season.  They are off to a 2-1 start with a 24-6 blowout win at Arizona and a dominant 31-17 home win over Green Bay.  Their only loss came 9-21 at home to Indianapolis, but it’s worth noting they outgained the Colts by 53 yards in that contest. 

In fact, when you look at the numbers, the Redskins have been one of the best teams in the NFL to this point.  They are averaging 383 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense, while giving up just 278 yards pre game and 4.9 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining their opponents by 105 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play. 

What I love about this Redskins team is that they are excellent in the trenches on both side of the ball.  The run the ball and stop the run.  They are averaging 138 rushing yards per game behind a rejuvenated Adrian Peterson, who will be chomping at the bit to face his former team in the Saints, who cut him last year.  And they are giving up just 91 rushing yards per game, while also being dominant against the pass, allowing just 187 passing yards per game. 

I think the Saints come into this game overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers on the road against the Falcons (in OT) and the Giants.  Everyone is beating the Giants, and the Falcons are decimated with injuries.  People are quick to forget that the Saints were upset by the Bucs 48-40 as 10-point favorites and should have lost to the Browns in a 21-18 win as 9.5-point favorites in their two home games. 

Now the Saints are being asked to lay a full touchdown here to the Redskins, who I believe to be one of the better teams in the NFL.  And this is a Redskins team that will be fresh and ready to go off their bye week.  That bye week came at a good time because they had some injuries along the offensive line, but now they are very healthy compared to most teams. 

Alex Smith should be able to pick apart this New Orleans defense that is giving up 390 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play, including 311 passing yards per game and 9.3 per attempt.  Alex Smith is completing 68.8% of his passes and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He has a 4-to-1 TD/INT ratio and simply does not make mistakes.  He is also one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL as he wins everywhere he goes. 

New Orleans is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last six Monday games. 

The Redskins are 4-2 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Saints.  They were underdogs in five of those games, and both of their losses came by exactly 3 points in overtime, including a 31-34 road loss as 9.5-point underdogs last season.  They simply have the Saints’ number.  Bet the Redskins Monday.

20* Cowboys/Texans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston -3 

The Houston Texans saved their season with a 37-34 overtime win at Indianapolis last week.  They picked up their first win of the year, and now they get two home games back-to-back against Dallas and Buffalo that can get them right back in the playoff conversation.  They are going to be ‘all in’ here for this game against the Cowboys Sunday night. 

There’s no question in my mind that the Texans are better than their 1-3 record.  That’s why I was on them last week to beat the Colts, and I’m on them again this week to beat the Cowboys.  The Texans are outgaining opponents by 32 yards per game this season.  Their offense is certainly not broken, as they are averaging 414 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  And Deshaun Watson finally looked real comfortable against the Colts last week.  And JJ Watt looks like his old dominant self again. 

The Cowboys certainly don’t have the firepower to match the Texans on offense.  Dallas is averaging just 16.7 points and 312 yards per game.  And that’s even after they had their best offensive output of the season against the Lions last week.  The Panthers, Giants and Seahawks all shut them down, and I expect the Texans to be able to do the same thing with Watt and company.  Stopping Ezekiel Elliott is the key to stopping Dallas, and the Texans are only giving up 94 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  Dallas only averages 166 passing yards per game, so it won’t be able to take advantage of what has been the weakness of the Texans in their secondary. 

The Cowboys are 0-2 on the road this season.  They are scoring just 10.5 points per game and averaging 267.5 yards per game on the highway.  Houston has been dealt a tough schedule with three of its first four games on the road, so they will be happy to be playing a home game here Sunday night. 

This Dallas defense is certainly improved this season.  However, injuries are starting to take their toll.  The Cowboys are now without their most important defender in Sean Lee, who is the quarterback of their defense at linebacker.  Last year, opponents averaged 6.0 yards per play when Lee was off the field, and 4.5 yards per play when he was on it.  He makes sure everyone is in the right place at all times, while also making a ton of plays himself.  The loss of Lee cannot be overstated. 

Bill O’Brien is 16-5 ATS vs. awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse as the coach of Houston.  Jason Garrett is 7-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% as the coach of Dallas.  Take the Texans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +1.5 

The Detroit Lions are desperate for a win Sunday to save their season.  They have opened 1-3 with two road losses to San Francisco and Dallas by a combined 5 points.  That’s how close they are to being 3-1.  I think they are undervalued right now because of their record because they are clearly a better team than that. 

They show that with their dominant 26-10 home win over the New England Patriots in Week 3.  Their backs were against the wall after an 0-2 start and they responded.  I think this is a similar situation here.  Look for the Lions to put their best foot forward this week against a division rival in the Green Bay Packers. 

Green Bay is overvalued off its 2-1-1 start.  Well, the Packers have played three of their first four games at home. And they are fortunate that they aren’t 1-3 as well.  They needed to overcome a 20-3 deficit to beat the Bears 24-23 as 7-point favorites in Week 1.  They tied the Vikings 29-29 at home in Week 2 with the Vikings missing some easy field goals.  And their 22-0 win over the Bills last week is nothing to be proud of. 

Green Bay failed miserably in its only road game this season.  The Packers went into Washington as 2.5-point favorites and came away with a 17-31 loss.  They are once again short road favorites here when they shouldn’t be.  Aaron Rodgers is still hobbled, and he could be without two of his top receivers in Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison.  The defense is weak once again this season, and the Packers can’t be favored here. 

The Lions have actually had the Packers’ number in recent meetings.  They are 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS in the last night meetings with three of their losses coming by a touchdown or less.  The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. NFC opponents.  The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. NFC foes.  Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Green Bay) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 3 points or less are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Lions Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE DAY on Buffalo Bills +5.5 

The Tennessee Titans are way overvalued after their 3-1 start to the season.  All three of hitter wins came by exactly 3 points, and now they’re being asked to go on the road and lay 5.5 points to the Buffalo Bills this week.  That’s simply too much, and it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Titans and ‘buy low’ on the Bills. 

The Titans have been outgained by an average of 49 yards per game this season.  Their offense has been putrid in averaging 18.7 points, 312 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  And their defense is giving up 361 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  This team isn’t nearly as good as their 3-1 record would suggest. 

And I think the Titans are primed for a letdown here.  They are coming off a shocking upset of the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, which followed up their 9-6 win over the Jaguars the week before.  Coming off those two wins, there’s no way they get up for the Buffalo Bills this week.  And teams who are on the road following a win over the defending Super Bowl champ are 16-38 ATS since 1992. 

The Bills come in undervalued off their shutout loss to the Green Bay Packers last week.  They were in for a letdown following their 27-6 road win over Minnesota in Week 3, which showed what they are capable of.  And the Bills have played three of their first four games on the road this season.  They were competitive in their only home game in a 20-31 loss to the Chargers, and keep in mind that was Josh Allen’s first start at quarterback.  Now he has three games under his belt and is a lot more comfortable. 

Buffalo does have a capable defense that is giving up 358 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, numbers that are better than what Tennessee has given up.  And the Bills have faced some very good offenses in the Ravens, Chargers, Vikings and Packers thus far.  Tennessee is by far the weakest offense they have faced yet, and I look for them to shut the Titans down here. 

Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.  It is losing by 13.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing against a losing team are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bills Sunday. 

20* Colts/Patriots AFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 52 

I’m taking the UNDER in this game Thursday night between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts.  I’m shocked it’s this high given the injuries to both teams, plus the fact that both offenses just really aren’t playing well at all this season. 

Andrew Luck’s favorite target in T.Y. Hilton is doubtful with a hamstring injury.  Tight end Jack Doyle is also out with a hip injury.  The Colts were missing their two starting tackles last week and could be without them again.  I just don’t know how the Colts are going to be able to move the ball and score points here. 

I know Julian Edelman returns for the Patriots this week from a four-game suspension.  However, they could be without Rob Gronkowski, who left last week with an ankle injury and is highly questionable.  Either way this is a Patriots offense that just isn’t as explosive as in year’s past as they’ll have to rely more on defense this season to win games. 

New England is only averaging 23.7 points and 337.2 yards per game this season.  The defense is giving up just 21.0 points per game, and came through with their best effort of the season last week in holding the Dolphins to just 7 points and 172 total yards.  Expect more of the same here from this defense against the banged-up Colts. 

Indianapolis has been fine offensively in its two domed home games, but outside on grass has been another story.  The Colts beat the Redskins 21-9 in Week 2 for just 30 combined points, and they lost to the Eagles 16-20 in Week 3 for just 36 combined points.  Well, they managed just 281 total yards against the Redskins, and just 209 total yards against the Eagles.  Give their defense credit for giving up just 14.5 points per game in their two road games as this is clearly an improved unit this season. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 49.5 or more in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential) are 38-12 (76%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Colts last six road games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Colts last nine games following a loss.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Patriots last seven games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Patriots last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Colts last 12 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Broncos ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver +5 

The Kansas City Chiefs are clearly the flavor of the week right now.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with Patrick Mahomes setting all kinds of records through three weeks.  While he and the Chiefs have been impressive, it’s clearly time to ‘sell high’ on them. 

The Chiefs were 3.5-point underdogs at the Chargers in Week 1.  They won that game by 10 against a Chargers defense that was missing two of their best players.  Then they were 4-point road dogs to the Steelers in Week 2 and won 42-37 against a Steelers defense that is clearly terrible without Ryan Shazier, and they were missing Joe Haden.  Then they won 38-27 as 6-point home favorites over the 49ers last week.  The 49ers also have a soft defense, and Jimmy G got hurt when they were making their comeback. 

So now the Chiefs are being asked to go on the road and lay 5 points to a good Denver Broncos team.  And they will be playing in altitude, which makes this one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL for the Broncos.  They won their first two home games over the Seahawks and Raiders this season before losing on the road to the Ravens last week, which isn’t a bad loss. 

There’s no question the Broncos have one of the most improved offenses in the league behind Case Keenum and the emergence of RB Philip Lindsay.  Denver is putting up 382.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play despite playing two quality defenses in Seattle and Baltimore.  They are tied for 11th in total offense this season. 

Well, Mahomes has masked a Kansas City offense that has been atrocious this year.  Indeed, the Chiefs rank dead last in total defense at 474 yards per game.  They are also 31st in scoring defense at 30.7 points per game and 31st in yards per play (6.7) allowed.  No question Keenum and company are going to be able to take advantage. 

But the biggest reason I like the Broncos this week is because they have the defense it takes to stop the league’s top offenses.  They have a tremendous pass rush with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, who will make life miserable on Mahomes.  And they have one of the top secondaries in the NFL.  I know the numbers don’t show it up to this point, but I’m believing it’s more of an aberration.  This has been a top 5 defense, especially against the pass, for the better part of the last five years. 

Denver also wants revenge from five straight loses to the Chiefs in this series.  But the last two Kansas City wins in Denver have come by 3 points each.  And I think we are getting a ton of value here with the Broncos +5 at home.  They can still lose the game and get the cover with this inflated line, though I’m expecting them to win outright.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 

Carson Wantz had a successful debut against the Colts last week.  He completed 25-of-37 passes for 255 yards with a touchdown and an interception while leading the Eagles to a 20-16 victory.  And that was clearly a bigger blowout than the final score showed last the Eagles outgained the Colts by 170 yards. 

Now I expect Wentz to be even sharper in his second game back against the Titans.  I actually think Wentz is at least a 4-point upgrade over Nick Foles.  It’s a miracle the Eagles won a Super Bowl with Foles as their QB because he did not play well other than the Super Bowl.  This team simply won with a great defense, which they still have after limiting the Colts to just 209 total yards last week.  And now their offense will get back to being that high-octane unit it was with Wentz under center last year. 

Tennessee is the single-most fraudulent team in the NFL right now.  They’re 2-1, but they should clearly be 0-3.  They lost 20-27 at Miami in their opener.  Then they beat Houston 20-17 at home in Week 2 despite getting outgained by 154 yards.  And they upset the Jaguars 9-6 last week.  That win over the Jags is earning them too much credit from oddsmakers.  It was a clear letdown spot for Jacksonville off its win over New England the previous week. 

The Titans simply cannot keep winning with how poor their offense has been playing.  They rank 29th in total offense at 284.0 yards per game.  They are also 27th at 4.7 yards per play.  Marcus Mariota was forced into action last week despite a sore elbow because Blaine Gabbert was knocked out with a concussion.  Mariota has looked terrible thus far this season, and he doesn’t have any weapons, especially with his favorite target in TE Delanie Walker out with a season-ending injury. 

Meanwhile, the Eagles get some key players back this week on offense.  Both RB Jay Ajayi and RB Darren Sproles are expected to return this week after sitting out the Colts game.  Plus, WR Alshon Jeffery may return this week after missing the first three games of the season with a shoulder injury.  That would be a big boost to Wentz and the offense. 

The Titans are 17-39-2 ATS in their last 58 games following a SU win, and 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 games off an ATS win.  The Eagles are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Titans will get exposed this week for the frauds that they are by one of the best teams in the NFL in Philadelphia.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday. 

25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -6.5 

Had the Patriots not lost to the Lions last week, this line would have been closer to Patriots -10.  Now we are getting the Patriots under a touchdown at -6.5.  I think we are getting a ton of line value here in a spot that is a supreme one for the home team. 

The Patriots will obviously be in a sour mood off their lost to the Lions.  We’ll get a great effort from them here, especially since this game has a ton riding on it in the AFC East race with Miami already off to a 3-0 start.  I love backing the Patriots off a loss, and I think they’ll perform much better at home here off back-to-back road losses. 

The Dolphins are the most fraudulent team in the NFL.  Yes, they’re 3-0, but they are very fortunate to have that record.  They were outgained by 105 yards in their win over the Jets.  They only outgained the Titans by 6 yards and got help with Marcus Mariota getting injured.  And they were outgained by 61 yards by the Raiders last week.  So, they have been outgained by 150 yards on the season, or an average of 50 yards per game.  And their three wins have come against three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Titans, Raiders and Jets. 

The Patriots had a lot of injuries heading into that Detroit games.  I’m expecting they could get back Patrick Chung, Trey Flowers, Eric Rowe and Rex Burkhead.  Plus, with their deficiencies at receiver thus far, don’t be surprised if Josh Gordon makes his New England debut here at home and has a huge game. 

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 10-2 SU & 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Patriots are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Dolphins.  They have won by 18, 7, 29, 28, 10 and 28 points in their last six home meetings with the Dolphins, or by an average of 20 points per game.  They have won nine straight home meetings with Miami with eight of those wins coming by 7 points or more. 

The Dolphins suffered some key injuries on defense last week that will hurt them against the Patriots this week.  They lost arguably their best run stopper and one of their top pass rushers in DE William Hayes to a torn ACL.  They also lost fellow DE Andre Branch.  S Reshad Jones is questionable with a shoulder injury here as well.  Look for the Patriots to get their running game going this week, and for Tom Brady to get right against a soft Miami defense. 

New England is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Patriots are 8-0 ATS after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games over the last two seasons.  New England is 29-12 ATS in its last 41 games overall.  The Patriots are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 home games.  The Dolphins are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Bet the Patriots Sunday. 

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Texans +3 

The Houston Texans have been a big disappointment with their 0-3 start.  So I think they are undervalued right now because they have not lived up to expectations.  I expect a huge effort from them Sunday in Indianapolis as they try to get in the win column and save their season. 

The best part about the Texans is there’s no doubt they are better than their 0-3 record would suggest.  They lost in Week 1 at New England but were only outgained by 64 yards.  They outgained the Titans by 154 yards and should have won that game on the road.  And they outgained the Giants by 48 yards at home last week, yet lost. 

There’s no question the Texans still have a great defense.  And their offense hasn’t gotten the points that they should have by now with how well their moving the football.  Indeed, the Texans rank 8th in the NFL in total offense at 396.3 yards per game, but just 22nd in scoring offense at 19.7 points per game.  At some point, this offense is going to start turning that yardage into points, and I’m guessing it’s going to be this week. 

I strongly believe the Colts are one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They beat the Redskins in Week 2 for their only win, but they were outgained by 53 yards.  They were outgained by 170 yards by the Eagles last week in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score.  While the Colts may be improved defensively, this is still a bottom half of the league unit. 

The problem with the Colts right now actually is their offense.  They rank 28th in the league in total offense at 290.0 yards per game.  Andrew Luck doesn’t quite look right, and the offense is missing a lot of players due to injury.  In fact, the Colts as a team have the longest injury report in the entire NFL if you take a look at it.  They have been playing without important players like TE Jack Doyle, T Antony Castonzo and RB Marlon Mack.  They have a handful of important defensively players who are either listed as questionable or out this week. 

Plays on road teams (Houston) - who are averaging at least 265 passing yards per game against a poor pass defense that allows 230-265 YPG, after allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt in two straight games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.   

Bill O’Brien is 15-5 ATS vs. awful pass defenses that allow 64% or more completions as the coach of Houston.  Opposing QB’s are completing 71.2% of their passes against the Colts this season.  The road team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Texans Sunday. 

20* Vikings/Rams NFC Thursday No-Brainer on Minnesota +7 

Had the Vikings not lost to the Bills last week, this line would have been in the -3.5 to -4 range in favor of the Los Angeles Rams.  But since they lost, we are getting at least a field goal worth of value here.  I simply believe that was a flat spot for the Vikings and actually had the Bills +17 as a premium play Sunday. 

The Vikings were coming off a huge game against their biggest rivals in the Packers, in which they tied in Green Bay.  And they had another massive game on deck Thursday on a short week here against the Rams.  So it was easy to see the Vikings coming out flat.  I think now they’ll be fired up and be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week, so we should get the best version of the Vikings, which is still one of the best teams in the NFL. 

The Rams are clearly overvalued right now.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS, and everyone seems to be already crowning them Super Bowl champs.  They have won their first three games by double-digits.  However, those three wins came against teams who are now a combined 1-8 in the Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers.  The Vikings will be by far the best team they have faced yet. 

We saw what happened last year when the high-octane Rams’ offense went up against the best defense in the NFL.  The Vikings won that game 24-7 at home as 2-point favorites.  They held the Rams to just 254 total yards and outgained them by nearly 200 yards in the win. 

I think this Vikings offense will get going again here against a Rams defense that is banged up right now.  Two of their key acquisitions this offseason were corners Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters.  Well, both Talib and Peters got injured in their 35-23 win over the Chargers last week.  Talib is for sure out, while Peters is very questionable and unlikely to play. 

Kirk Cousins will be able to dice up this undermanned Los Angeles secondary.  Cousins has certainly lived up to the hype of the big contract thus far.  He is completing 68.3% of his passes for 965 yards with seven touchdowns and only two interceptions through three games this year. 

Mike Zimmer is 9-2 ATS vs. teams who average at least 375 yards per game on offense as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 20-9 ATS as a dog as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 45-24 ATS in all games as the coach of the Vikings.  The Vikings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  I trust Zimmer to have his team ready to put forth a big effort against the Rams in this one.  Bet the Vikings Thursday. 

15* Steelers/Bucs ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 53.5 

The Tampa Bay Bucs have been the surprise of the NFL through two weeks.  Not for their defense, but for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the offense.  They are 2-0 behind that offense that scored 48 points against a good Saints defense in Week 1 and followed it up with 27 points against a great Eagles defense in Week 2. 

The Bucs haven’t been able to run the football, so they’ve relied solely on Fitzpatrick, which is great for OVER bettors.  He threw for 417 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Saints in Week 1.  Then he threw for 42 yards and 4 touchdowns with an interception against the Eagles in Week 2.  The Bucs are loaded with weapons at receiver in DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin.  It’s nice to see this offense living up to their potential. 

The Bucs had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season.  It appears that hasn’t changed this year, either.  They are giving up 30.5 points and 443.5 yards per game, including 6.8 yards per play thus far.  The Steelers should be able to take advantage and put up a big number here. 

Pittsburgh hasn’t had any problem moving the football on offense this season.  The Steelers are averaging 29.0 points and 473.5 yards per game in their two games against the Chiefs and Browns.  But their defense has been atrocious since losing Ryan Shazier to a season-ending injury last year.  And it has carried over into 2018 as the Steelers are giving up 31.5 points and 388 yards per game this year. 

Star CB Joe Haden missed last week for the Steelers and could be out again this week.  The Bucs are playing without LB Kendell Beckwith and CB Vernon Hargreaves, and they could be without both CB Brent Grimes and DT Vita Vea again this week. 

Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Pittsburgh) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the first month of the season are 48-19 (71.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The OVER is 7-1 in Steelers last eight games on grass.  The OVER is 4-1 in Bucs last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* Pats/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51.5 

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks Sunday night inside the dome at Ford Field between the Patriots and Lions.  This game should see touchdowns in bunches and should easily sail OVER this 51.5-point total.  I rarely take overs this high, but this is a new NFL and this one I believe to be worth it. 

The Lions clearly have a woeful defense again this season.  They are giving up 39 points per game and 6.3 yards per play through two games against the Jets and 49ers.  Offensively, the Lions have no running game again this season, putting everything on Matthew Stafford’s shoulders.  That’s good for OVER bettors.  They are averaging 314 passing yards per game through two games. 

New England has played two tough defenses already to start the season in the Texans and Jaguars.  That’s why the Patriots are only averaging 23.5 points per game thus far.  But the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and their offense will get right here. 

The problem for the Patriots dating back to the Super Bowl is that their defense just isn’t as good as it has been in year’s past.  They gave up 41 points to the Eagles in the Super Bowl.  Then they gave up 20 to a banged-up Texans offense in Week 1 before allowing a whopping 31 points and 481 yards to a bad Jacksonville offense in Week 2.  Blake Bortles threw for 377 yards and 4 touchdowns on them! 

Detroit is 17-4 OVER in its last 21 home games off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog.  Bill Belichick is 14-3 OVER off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite as the coach of the Patriots.  The OVER is 8-2 in Lions last 10 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday night. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -1 

Seattle is a team I’ve faded with success each of the first two weeks of the season because I wasn’t very high on them coming into the year.  And I won with the Broncos -2.5 in Week 1 and the Bears -3 in Week 2 going against them.  I thought they were overvalued coming into the year, and I was right.  But I had to sweat out both of those games as they lost by 3 at Denver and by 7 at Chicago, only after a pick-six by the Bears that was the difference. 

Now, after an 0-2 start, I believe the Seahawks to be undervalued this week at home against the Cowboys.  The look-ahead line for this game was Seattle -3 on Monday morning prior to the Bears’ game, and now they are only -1 after the Bears’ game.  There’s some value here because of it.  Their defense played better than I expected last week as they held the Bears to just 271 total yards.  And their offense is moving the ball fine once they get Russell Wilson in up-tempo situations, which I look for them to do more of this week. 

But the key here is that Seattle played its first two games of the season on the road.  Now the Seahawks return home, where the 12th man is the real deal and they are one of the toughest teams in the NFL to beat at home.  Plus, they’ll be highly motivated here for a win with essentially their season on the line.  Look for a big effort from the Seahawks this week. 

The Cowboys come in overvalued here off their 20-13 win over the Giants on Sunday Night Football last week.  But the Giants are clearly a bad team this year.  And this Dallas offense did little after its opening TD drive on a long pass play to Tavon Austin on broken coverage.  Dallas didn’t score until the 4th quarter in Week 1 against the Panthers in an 8-16 loss.  It’s a Dallas offense that is only averaging 14 points and 265 total yards per game thus far. 

Pete Carroll is 10-2 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 11-2 ATS in September home games as the coach of the Seahawks.  Carroll is 43-26 ATS in all home games as the coach of Seattle.  The Seahawks are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss.  Take the Seahawks Sunday. 

15* Saints/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +3 

This is a clear ‘buy low’ opportunity on the New Orleans Saints Sunday as field goal underdogs to the Atlanta Falcons.  There were big expectations for the Saints coming into the season as many felt they were Super Bowl contenders.  And they were priced like it in their first two home games. 

But the Saints fell flat on their faces in Week 1, losing 40-48 to the Tampa Bay Bucs as 10-point favorites.  Then they failed to cover as 9.5-point favorites and were really fortunate to win 21-18 over the Cleveland Browns.  So they basically go from being double-digit favorites two straight weeks to now 3-point underdogs, which is a 13-point adjustment. 

I still think the Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL and that rough start will wake them up moving forward.  And clearly the Bucs are better than they were getting credit for coming into the season because they followed up their win over the Saints with a dominant 27-21 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles in Week 2.  That was a 20-point game before the Eagles made it interesting in the 4th quarter.  And the Browns are better than expected too as they tied the Steelers in OT and gave the Saints all they wanted. 

The Falcons couldn’t beat an undermanned Eagles team in Week 1, losing 12-18 despite being favored on the road.  Then they beat the Panthers 31-24 last week, but it’s worth noting the Panthers were missing several key players along the offensive line, at LB and at TE.  And the Panthers had the ball with a chance to tie in the closing seconds still. 

The Saints are almost fully healthy and will be a tough challenge for the Falcons this week.  I believe the Saints are the better team right now, especially when you consider the significant injuries to the Falcons.  Atlanta is missing two of its best defensive players in S Keanu Neal and LB Deion Jones to season-ending injuries.  The Falcons are also without star RB Devonta Freeman with a knee injury.  I don’t think the Falcons have what it takes to beat the Saints without those three guys, let alone win by margin and cover this 3-point spread. 

Quietly, the Saints have been a better bet on the road than at home over the last few seasons.  Indeed, the Saints are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games.  The Falcons are just 5-24 ATS in their last 29 home games off a home win.  In fact, they are losing 19.7 to 24.6 in this spot, or by nearly 5 points per game.  They haven’t been able to follow up success with more success at home.  Roll with the Saints Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo Bills +17.5 

The Buffalo Bills couldn’t be more undervalued than they are right now.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after their 0-2 start, which featured a 3-47 loss at Baltimore in Week 1 and a 20-31 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2.  That’s why this spread has been inflated as oddsmakers have no choice but to make it this high in hopes of getting even action on both sides.  The public will still back the Vikings at this massive price, but the sharp money will be on the Bills this week. 

Buffalo at least looked like a competent offense against the Chargers last week with rookie Josh Allen at quarterback.  Allen went 18-of-33 passing for 245 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, while also rushing for 32 yards on eight carries in the loss.  The Bills were only outgained by 56 yards in that game and were more competitive than the final score would suggest. 

This is the ultimate sandwich game for the Vikings this week.  They are coming off a draining 29-29 tie against the Green Bay Packers in which they probably should have lost in regulation, but then they should have won in OT.  Their kicker let them down and they signed Dan Bailey this week.  But now they can’t help but look ahead to a Thursday night showdown with the Los Angeles Rams on the road next week.  They won’t be giving the Bills their full attention, and as a result it will make it very difficult to cover this 17.5-point spread. 

Buffalo is 53-29 ATS in its last 82 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The price is right to back the Bills this week as 17.5-point underdogs to the Vikings.  You rarely see numbers this big in the NFL.  And the spot couldn’t be worse for the Vikings this week.  Bet the Bills Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +3.5 

I love this situation for the Oakland Raiders.  We are getting a motivated 0-2 team up against an fat and happy 2-0 team in the Miami Dolphins.  I’ll back the more motivated team almost every time, especially when I feel the 0-2 team is actually the better squad, which is the case here. 

Oakland had a 13-10 lead over the L.A. Rams before imploding with three second-half turnovers in Week 1.  Oakland had a 12-0 lead over the Broncos before missing an extra points and letting Denver come back in the second half, losing 20-19 on a last-second field goal with the extra point being the difference. 

Well, Denver and the LA Rams have two of the best defenses in the NFL, and the Raiders actually had great success offensively against them.  They had 395 total yards against the Rams and 373 total yards against the Broncos.  They are averaging 384.0 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense.  Derek Carr went 29-of-32 passing for 288 yards and a score against that vaunted Denver pass D last week. 

Not only do I believe the Dolphins are the worst 2-0 team in the NFL right now, they are still among the worst NFL teams in general this season.  They are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers this week as 3.5-point home favorites here against the Raiders.  And they are reading the press clippings and feeling good about themselves.  I think they will fall flat on their faces this week. 

The two wins have come against the Titans and Jets, also two of the worst teams in the NFL.  They survived a seven-hour marathon at home against the Titans in Week 1, and an injury to Marcus Mariota aided their win.  Then last week they were thoroughly outplayed by the Jets, but found a way to win 20-12.  They managed just 257 total yards against the Jets while giving up 362, getting outgained by 105 total yards.  They have simply been fortunate in those two games by forcing a combined six turnovers.  It’s a Miami offense that is averaging just 299.5 yards per game and 5.4 per play this season. 

Oakland is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 road games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Miami is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.  John Gruden is 20-8 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less in all games he has coached.  The Dolphins are 16-45-3 ATS in their last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Miami is 4-22 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game. 

Plays on road teams (Oakland) - off a loss to a division rival, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight losses are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1993.  We are buying low on Oakland and selling high on Miami this week.  Bet the Raiders Sunday. 

20* Jets/Browns AFC Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3 

The Cleveland Browns have held their own against two of the best teams in the NFL.  They tied the Steelers in overtime in Week 1, and they should have beaten the Saints in Week 2 in an 18-21 loss.  Kicker Zane Gonzalez missed two field goals and two extra points in that defeat last week, which was the difference. 

I’ve been most impressed with what the Browns have been able to do defensively.  Holding both the Steelers and the Saints to 21 points each is no small feat.  They legitimately have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and now they will be up against the worst offense they’ve faced yet in the New York Jets this week. 

They Jets opened their season with a misleading 48-17 win over the Lions.  But that was a misleading result.  For starters, their defensive players were tipped off to all of Matthew Stafford’s signals, which was a huge advantage.  They forced five turnovers as a result and got defensive and special teams touchdowns in the win.  The Jets came back last week and laid an egg 12-20 at home to the Dolphins. 

So, the Jets have played two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Lions and Dolphins, while the Browns have played two of the best teams in the NFL in the Steelers and Saints.  That preparation against that level of competition will make this seem like a much easier game for the Browns here.  And they are starved for a win and it will be a rowdy atmosphere Thursday night in Cleveland as the fans pack the stands in hopes of ending this losing streak.

Schedule makers have done the Jets no favors here.  They played on Monday Night Football in Week 1.  And now have to play on Thursday in Week 3.  That means they will be playing their 3rd game in 11 days, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NFL.  Don't be surprised if they are gassed by the second half of this one.

These teams played last year with the Jets winning 17-14 in Cleveland.  That also puts the Browns in revenge mode.  Plus, the Browns dominated that game, outgaining the Jets 419 to 212, or by 207 total yards.  But they lost the turnover battle 3-1.  Another lopsided box score this week will actually lead to a Browns’ victory because they are taking care of the football and getting turnovers this year.  They have a +6 turnover differential through two games. 

Todd Bowles is 0-7 ATS in road games off a division game as the coach of the Jets.  New York is losing in this spot by 12.7 points per game.  This is a 100% never lost system that we’ll back here tonight.  Bet the Browns Thursday.

20* Seahawks/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago -3 

I expect the Chicago Bears to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They went just 5-11 last year, but Mitchell Trubisky had nobody to throw to, and the coaching staff didn’t have a clue.  Yet, they managed to beat three of the better teams in the NFL in the Steelers, Panthers and Ravens, and they took both the Falcons and the Vikings down to the wire early in the season. 

The Bears were competitive due to a defense that ranked 9th in scoring and 10th in total defense last year.  That defense will be very good again, especially with the addition of former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack via trade with the Raiders.  They gave up a lot to get him, but that won’t hurt them this season, only in the future. 

Matt Nagy is the new head coach.  He was the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs under Andy Reid, and he was the perfect hire for the Bears this offseason to inject some new life into the offense.  Nagy will get the most out of Trubisky, who now has ample weapons to lead the offense.  No team improved their playmakers more this offseason than Chicago. 

The Bears already have a pair of talented backs in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.  But they added former Jacksonville No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson, who is primed for a bounce-back season after playing just one game in Jacksonville last year before getting injured.  New slot receiver Taylor Gabriel has 4.3-40 speed and will be missed in Atlanta.  Trey Burton was stuck behind Zach Ertz in Philadelphia at tight end, but now he’ll be playing the role Travis Kelce played in Nagy’s offensive in KC.  They used their second-round pick on WR Anthony Miller out of Memphis as well. 

The Bears certainly looked the part as the most improved team in the NFL when they jumped out to a 20-0 lead over Green Bay at Lambeau Field last week.  But they took the foot off the gas late and allowed Aaron Rodgers and company to come back and win 21-20, though the Bears easily covered as 7.5-point dogs and we had them.  Kyle Fuller dropped an easy INT on the Packers’ final drive that would have sealed the win.  Look for the Bears to come back pissed off this week and redeem themselves on Monday Night Football against the Seattle Seahawks. 

This is a Seahawks team I’m way down on this season for several reasons.  I won on the Broncos -2.5 last week against them in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Broncos outgained the Seahawks by 164 total yards and racked up 470 total yards on Seattle’s defense.  But three Case Keenum interceptions kept Seattle in it. 

The Seahawks are a team in transition.  They ‘Legion of Boom’ is no longer.  Richard Sherman is gone to the 49ers, and Kam Chancellor is out for the season.  Earl Thomas just returned from his holdout last week, but he’s about all they got in the secondary.  CB Byron Maxwell is on the IR with a hip injury.  Not to mention, DE Cliff Avril and DE Michael Bennett are both gone.  This defense doesn’t look anything like the dominant unit it was a few years ago, and that was evident by giving up 470 yards to the Broncos last week. 

The same problem remains for Seattle’s offense.  They simply cannot run the football.  Russell Wilson had a big season last year, but only because he had to.  Wilson actually led the team in rushing, and by a wide margin.  No Seattle running back had more than 240 yards last year.  The offensive line is still a mess, and the options are limited at receiver.  They lost both Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson, who combined for 16 TD receptions last year.  And now Doug Baldwin, who caught 75 balls for 991 yards and 8 TD last year, suffered a knee injury against the Broncos and has been ruled out this week. 

That doesn’t even cover all the injuries for the Seahawks right now.  MLB Bobby Wagner is questionable with a groin injury, and OLB K.J. Wright is doubtful with a knee injury.  Wagner led the team in tacklers with 133 last year while Wright was second with 108.  Starting G D.J. Fluker is questionable, and starting TE Ed Dickson is out with a groin injury.  A guy I’ve never heard of in TE Will Dissly actually led the team in receiving last week against the Broncos. 

Teams who are playing back-to-back road games to open the season in Week 2 are 0-12 SU over the past five seasons.  Pete Carroll is 1-9 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of Seattle.  Bet the Bears Monday.

20* Giants/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +3 

The New York Giants are undervalued off their disastrous 3-13 season last year.  They were hit as hard by injuries as any team in the league last year.  Ben McAdoo was not fit for the job.  But this is a team that made the playoffs in 2016, so there is still a lot of talent on this squad.  And they got even better in the offseason. 

The Giants have improved most in the trenches.  They nabbed four new starters along the offensive line, including LT Nate Solder from the Patriots.  They will have a running game now with that improved O-Line and the addition of first-round pick RB Saquon Barkley, who is sure to be a star in the NFL for years to come.  Odell Beckham Jr. got his big contract, and now he’s back healthy this season.  Eli Manning has everything he needs to succeed. 

The Giants had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2016.  But injuries decimated this unit last last year and poor play by the offense had them gassed.  This stop unit should come back energized and become one of the better defenses in the NFL in 2018.  I love the addition of LB Alec Ogletree, who will become the QB of the defense after serving the same role with the Rams previously. 

The Giants actually played well against the Jaguars in Week 1 and should have won.  They gained 324 yards on offense against arguably the best D in the NFL.  Their defense only gave up 305 total yards and actually held the Jaguars’ offense to just 13 points because one of their touchdowns was a pick-six.  The Giants should finally click offensively this week against a Dallas D that isn’t nearly as good as Jacksonville. 

I still think the Cowboys have a decent D, but they are battling injuries right now.  They have three DE’s who are hurt in Demarcus Lawrence, Tyrone Crawford, David Irving (suspension) and Randy Gregory.  Both Irving and Gregory are out, while Lawrence and Crawford are expected to play.  Also out is DT Datone Jones and FS Xavier Woods. 

The real problem for the Cowboys is on offense.  Dak Prescott regressed big-time last year, and now this year he has no weapons with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten gone.  And the offensive line is missing starting center Travis Frederick right now.  That offense was atrocious against Carolina last week.  The Cowboys trailed 16-0 and finally got on the scoreboard in the 4th quarter, but it was too little, too late.  They managed just 232 total yards against the Panthers. 

Jason Garrett is 3-11 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 1-9 ATS in home games after scoring 14 points or less as the coach of the Cowboys.  Dallas has been terrible in the home favorite role over the years.  I think the Giants are the better of these two teams and they prove it on the field Sunday night.  Bet the Giants Sunday.