15* Texans/Titans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Houston -2.5 

There is a lot to like about the Houston Texans heading into 2018.  For starters, Deshaun Watson is fully healthy now.  He was on pace for 43 touchdowns as a rookie before suffering a season-ending knee injury.  Watson led an offense that averaged 39 points per game from Week 3 to Week 8 in a five-game span.  It’s scary how good this offense was when he was healthy, and when WR Will Fuller was on the field. 

Fuller had 7 touchdown receptions on just 28 grabs last year.  Well, Fuller missed Week 1’s 20-27 loss to the Patriots.  But Fuller is expected back this week, giving Watson his full arsenal of weapons against the Titans this week.  And Watson had a concussion that he has been cleared from this week. 

Defensively, the Texans get their two best players back healthy as well.  Both J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus return this season.  Watt is a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year.  He, Jadeveon Clowney and Mercilus will wreak havoc on opposing offenses this season.  Both LB’s Benardick McKinney and Zach Cunningham are coming off productive seasons, and this is one of the best front seven’s defensively in the NFL. 

I’m way down on the Tennessee Titans this season.  They were the worst team to make the playoffs last year and I just don’t trust them at all.  They are due for some big-time regression.  Marcus Mariota just isn’t progressing as he was supposed to, and he has limited weapons on offense.  The defense has plenty of holes as well. 

Tennessee lost 20-27 in Miami last week.  It was a strange game because it was delayed by lightning, and actually took seven hours to complete.  And by the 4th quarter, both teams looked so gas because they were out on the field for most of the day in the scorching heat.  I question what the Titans have left in the tank this week. 

The Titans came away with some serious injuries.  Mariota was knocked out of the game with an elbow injury, and while he is likely to play this week, he is highly questionable and won’t be 100%.  He lost his security blanket in TE Delanie Walker to a season-ending ankle injury.  Top WR Corey Davis is battling a hamstring injury.  Starting LB Derrick Morgan (knee) is questionable, starting SS Johnathan Cyprien (knee) is out for the season, and two offensive tackles in Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin are out this week.  Fellow offensive tackler Dennis Kelly is questionable.   

It’s a laundry list of injuries for the Titans right now.  The key injuries are those to Walker and the offensive tackles.  Walker had caught at least 60 passes every year for the Titans since signing with them in 2013.  And Watt, Clowney and company should be all over Mariota since the Titans are likely going with a pair of backup tackles this week. 

Bill O’Brien is 17-8 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Houston.  The Texans are winning in this spot by 7.6 points per game on average.  The Texans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 2.  The Titans are 15-40-4 ATS in their last 59 vs. AFC opponents.  Tennessee is 8-26-3 ATS in its last 37 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Texans Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -9 

I think the Saints simply took the Bucs too lightly in Week 1.  I was actually on the Bucs last week because I thought they came into the season undervalued.  And it was a good move as the Bucs upset the Saints 48-40.  I certainly don’t believe the Saints are this bad defensively because they were vastly improved last year.  And their task gets much easier against the Browns this week. 

I think that loss to the Bucs will serve as a wake-up call for the Saints.  They won’t be taking the Browns lightly this week as they’ll be putting their best foot forward.  Look for them to roll at home behind an offense that racked up 475 total yards and 40 points against the Bucs.  I’m certainly not ready to write off their defense because they actually added more talent in the offseason. 

Now the Saints are up against a weak Browns’ offense that just isn’t very explosive.  The Browns trailed the Steelers 21-7 midway through the fourth quarter last week before tacking on two late touchdowns and forcing overtime.  But the Browns deserves to lose that game.  They gave up 472 total yards and managed just 322 themselves, getting outgained by 150 yards.  They were +5 in turnovers and still couldn’t win!  Drew Brees and the Saints won’t be giving away any gifts this week. 

I certainly believe the Browns have an improved defense this year with some playmakers, but those 472 yards they gave up to the Steelers without Le’Veon Bell is concerning.  And Cleveland’s offense doesn’t have the potential to keep up with the Saints in a shootout, which this is expected to be with a total set of 49.5 points.  The Saints will get their points because they always do at home. 

The Browns are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games vs. NFC opponents.  Cleveland is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games.  I think last week’s results are keeping this line lower than it should be.  New Orleans should have no problem winning by double-digits.  Take the Saints Sunday. 

20* Ravens/Bengals AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore +1 

The Baltimore Ravens are a legit playoff contender.  It’s a team I was high on coming into the season due to several things that happened this offseason.  For starters, Joe Flacco is more motivated than he’s ever been after the Ravens traded up to draft Lamar Jackson in the first round.  And he finally has some weapons to work with on offense. 

The Ravens added Michael Crabtree, Willie Snead and John Brown at receiver.  Fittingly, all three receivers caught touchdown passes from Flacco in a 47-3 beat down of the Buffalo Bills in Week 1.  And the defense limited the Bills to just 153 total yards as the Ravens outgained them by 216 yards in the game.  This is one of the best defenses in the NFL. 

The Ravens went 5-0 in the preseason and now are 1-0 in the regular season.  They have outscored their six opponents by a total of 99 points, or by an average of 16.5 points per game.  Their defense has held their six opponents to just an average of 12.5 points per game.  This is a deep, talented defense that will give Andy Dalton and company fits this week. 

The Bengals were fortunate to win 34-23 at Indianapolis in Week 1.  They were outgained by 50 total yards and got an 83-yard fumble recovery for a TD with 24 seconds left as the Colts were driving deep in the red zone to win the game.  And the Colts aren’t a very good team. 

The Bengals were one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL last year.  Things don’t look a whole lot better for them in 2018.  They managed just 330 total yards against what was an awful Colts’ defense last year, and one that isn’t much better this year.  And Andrew Luck threw for 319 yards as the Colts managed 380 total yards against what is just an average Bengals defense. 

Cincinnati has some big injury concerns coming into this one.  Starters that are questionable to play include DE Carlos Dunlap (calf), LG Clint Boling (foot), CB Darqueze Dennard (neck) and MLB Preston Brown (ankle).  Not to mention, the Bengals are already playing without LB Vontaze Burfict due to a four-game suspension. 

But what I really like about this game is the situation.  Baltimore simply needed a win in Week 17 last year to make the playoffs.  Instead, the Bengals upset them 31-27 in Baltimore as 8-point underdogs.  The Bengals scored on a 49-yard TD Pass with just 44 seconds left to stun the Ravens.  You can bet Baltimore has been thinking about that game all offseason.  They have had this game circled, and they will get their revenge Thursday night in Cincinnati. 

Baltimore won 20-0 in Cincinnati last year.  The Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 40 points or more in their previous game.  Baltimore is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. AFC North opponents.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Ravens Thursday. 

20* Jets/Lions ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +7 

The Detroit Lions have been nothing but mediocre for decades.  They have not won a playoff game in 26 seasons.  They are kind of starting over this year with a new head coach in Matt Patricia.  I don’t expect them to come out Week 1 hitting on all cylinders with new systems and new personnel in place.  They certainly shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown against anyone in this league, not even the Jets. 

The problem for the Lions is always defense and the lack of a running game.  They are trying to change that this year, but it won’t happen overnight.  The Lions ranked 27th in total defense last year and 32nd in rushing offense, averaging just 76.3 yards per game.  They’re expecting Patricia to magically improve the defense, and for LeGarrette Blount and company to improve the running game. 

I like the chemistry the Jets have with Todd Bowles.  He enters his 4th season with the franchise and is 20-28 overall, but has been trying to upgrade the talent since he got here.  That’s not a bad record for the shortage of talent that he’s had to work with.  They are starting to turn the corner in that department. 

The Jets used their top pick on Sam Darnold, and he’s expected to start Week 1.  The future of the offense is bright now that they finally found their QB.  Jermaine Kerse (65 receptions, 810 yards, 5 TD last year) and Robby Anderson (63, 941, 7 TD) provide an underrated receiver duo, and Terrelle Pryor only adds to it.  Isaiah Crowell was signed this offseason to be the workhorse after rushing for 853 yards in Cleveland last year.  The offensive line should be improved with the addition of center Spencer Long from the Redskins. 

New York is loaded with playmakers defensively.  Leonard Williams had the third-most QB hits (25) in the AFC last season.  Steve McLendon is a solid run-stuffing nose tackle.  The Jets replaced Demario Davis with a younger version of him in LB Avery Williamson, who had 92 tackles and 3 sacks with the Titans last year.  Darron Lee improved greatly in his second season and will take an even bigger step this year.  Second-year safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye are promising.  The Jets signed former Rams No. 1 corner Tremaine Johnson to a five-year, $72 million deal.  Morris Claiborne is a solid No. 2 corner opposite Johnson. 

The fact of the matter is that there’s not much difference between the Lions and Jets talent-wise, so this spread should not be a touchdown.  The Lions admittedly have the better offense, but the Jets clearly have the better defense.  Detroit is 31-51 ATS in its last 82 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Jets are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall and come into 2018 underrated as well.  Bet the Jets Monday.

Note: I recommend buying the Jets to +7

20* Bears/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago +7.5 

I expect the Chicago Bears to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They went just 5-11 last year, but Mitchell Trubisky had nobody to throw to, and the coaching staff didn’t have a clue.  Yet, they managed to beat three of the better teams in the NFL in the Steelers, Panthers and Ravens, and they took both the Falcons and Vikings down to the wire early in the season. 

The Bears were competitive due to a defense that rank 9th in scoring and 10th in total defense.  That defense will be very good again, especially with the addition of former NFL Defensive Player Khalil Mack via trade.  They gave up a lot to get him with two first-round picks, but that won’t hurt them at all this season, only in the future. 

Matt Nagy is the new head coach.  He was the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs under Andy Reid, and he was the perfect hire for the Bears this offseason to inject some new life into the offense.  Nagy will get the most out of Trubisky, who now has ample weapons to lead the offense.  No team improved their playmakers this offseason more than Chicago. 

The Bears added former Jacksonville No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson, who is primed for a bounce-back season after playing in just one game for the Jaguars before getting injured last year.  New slot receiver Taylor Gabriel has 4.3-40 speed and will be missed in Atlanta.  Trey Burton was stuck behind Zach Ertz in Philadelphia at tight end.  But now he’ll have a chance to shine and take over the role that Travis Kelce played in Nagy’s offense in Kansas City.  They used their second-round pick on Anthony Miller out of Memphis, and they still have former first-round pick Kevin White on their roster. 

The Packers will be good as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, but they should not be favored by more than a touchdown here against the Bears.  Rodgers voiced his frustration this offseason with the lack of focus out of the receiver group, and he clearly wasn’t healthy they let one of his best friends in Jordy Nelson walk.  They are also shopping Randall Cobb. 

Devante Adams and Jimmy Graham are good targets for Rodgers, but outside of those two, the talent is pretty weak at receiver.  And the Packers have never had a consistent running game. 

Green Bay ranked 26th in scoring defense (24.0 PPG) and 22nd in total defense (348.9 yards/game) last season.  While they did add some pieces on defense to try and help out, they lost two key pieces in the secondary in CB Damarious Randall and S Morgan Burnett.  The loss of Burnett is a big one because he was a leader in the secondary for eight seasons and made the defensive calls.   

They’ll now be relying on first-round pick Jair Alexander and second-round pick Josh Jackson at cornerback this season.  Both could struggle early on.  They brought in corners Tramon Williams and Davon House, but both are just stopgaps.  Second-year CB Kevin King is coming off labrum surgery.  Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is the most experienced member of the secondary at safety, but he was dreadful last season.  Second-year man Josh Jones and unproven Kentrell Brice are battling for the other safety position.  There will be more holes in this secondary to say the least. 

Plays against home favorites (Green Bay) who had a losing record last season, in conference games are 141-87 (61.8%) ATS since 1983.  The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Don’t be surprised if the Bears win this game outright as they are a team on the rise this season.  But we’ll certainly take the 7.5 points without hesitation.  Take the Bears Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Broncos -2.5 

The Denver Broncos should be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They are coming off a 5-11 season that was mired with awful quarterback play.  The trio of Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch was about one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL last season.  That won’t be the case again. 

Case Keenum parlayed his trip to the NFC Championship Game with the Vikings into a big contract with the Broncos this offseason.  Keenum is better than he gets credit for, which was evident in Minnesota last year.  And just like in Minnesota, Keenum has a great defense to fall back on, so he doesn’t have to do too much. 

The Broncos wasted an elite defense last year.  They ranked 3rd in total defense, giving up just 290.0 yards per game.  And they will challenge for the top spot again in 2018.  The Broncos got the steal of the draft when they nabbed Bradley Chubb from NC State with the No. 5 overall pick despite the fact that he was graded out as the best player in the draft. 

Now the Von Miller-Chubb tandem at outside linebacker is as scary as it gets in the NFL.  The “No Fly Zone” secondary features Pro Bowlers Chris Harris (CB) and Darian Stewart (S).  The Broncos could afford to trade Aqib Talib because CB Bradley Roby is a future star and ready for a starting role.  This is going to be a dynamite defense. 

The Seahawks are a team in transition.  The ‘Legion of Boom’ is no longer.  Richard Sherman was traded to the 49ers, Earl Thomas is holding out and still looking to get traded, and Kam Chancellor is out for the season with a neck injury.  Not to mention, DE Cliff Avril and DE Michael Bennett are both gone.  This defense doesn’t look anything like the dominant unit it was a few years ago, and it will struggle. 

The same problem remains for Seattle’s offense.  They simply cannot run the football.  Russell Wilson has a big season last year, but only because he had to.  Wilson actually led the team in rushing, and by a wide margin.  No Seattle running back had more than 240 yards last year.  The offensive line is still a mess, and the options are limited at receiver, especially with the losses of Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson.  That duo combined for 16 TD receptions last year.   

The Seahawks will struggle to reach .500 this season with all that they’ve lost.  And they have some other injury concerns heading into Week 1.  LB K.J. Wright is doubtful with a knee injury, DE Dion Jordan is questionable with a shin injury, CB Byron Maxwell is on IR with a hip injury, and WR Doug Baldwin is nursing a knee injury but expected to play.

Pete Carroll is 1-9 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of Seattle.  The Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine September games.  The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six September games.  The key to this game will be the Broncos’ domination up front on defense against Seattle’s weak offensive line.  Russell Wilson will be running for his life.  Take the Broncos Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Bucs +10 

Public perception couldn’t be any worse on the Bucs right now.  At the same time, public perception couldn’t be much higher on the New Orleans Saints.  So this is essentially the perfect storm here and we’re getting max value on the Bucs as 10-point road underdogs to the Saints in the opener. 

The Bucs are coming off a 5-11 season.  Jameis Winston has been suspended for the first three games of the season.  Not much is expected from the Bucs, who play in a very tough division.  But I think they’ve been hearing all offseason about how bad they are going to be.  No question them head into Week 1 with a massive chip on their shoulder. 

And I actually like the talent on this Bucs’ roster.  Their defense had three stars in DT Gerald McCoy and LB’s Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander.  They added two productive DE’s in Vinny Curry from the Eagles and Jason Pierre-Paul from the Giants.  I expect this to be one of the most improved defenses in the league. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick has ample weapons on the outside to be productive, and he’s one of the best backups in the NFL.  Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and the combination of OJ Howard and Cameron Brate at tight end give the Bucs some great receiving options.  Peyton Barber came on strong at running back late last year, and they added talented rookie RB Ronald Jones II in the second round.  I expect the Bucs to be a lot more competitive than the general public does this season. 

The Saints are getting a lot of hype after going 11-5 last year and losing on the Minnesota miracle in the playoffs.  Their defense improved greatly last year, but it’s still just a mediocre unit.  And the offense is more run-heavy now than it has ever been, but Mark Ingram is out to start the season due to a four-game suspension.  No question the Saints will still be good this year and a playoff contender, but I think they are getting way too much respect from the books in Week 1 here.  The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four Week 1 games.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday. 

15* Texans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +7 

There is a lot to like about the Houston Texans heading into 2018.  For starters, Deshaun Watson is fully healthy now.  He was on pace for 43 touchdowns as a rookie before suffering a season-ending knee injury.    Watson led an offense that averaged 39 points per game from Week 3 to Week 8 in a five-game span.  It’s scary how good this offense was when he was healthy, and when WR Will Fuller was on the field.  He had 7 touchdown receptions on 28 grabs last year. 

So on offense, they have Watson and Fuller back healthy, and on defense they get their two best players back healthy as well.  J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus both return.  Watt is a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year.  He and Jadeveon Clowney will wreak havoc on opposing offenses.  Whitney Mercilus returns from a torn pectoral muscle.  Mercilus joins a talented LB group that features leading tackler Benardick McKinney and the versatile Zach Cunningham, who are both coming off productive seasons. 

The Patriots are notorious slow starters.  We saw them lose 27-42 to the Chiefs at home in Week 1 last year, and in their next home game they barely beat Watson and the Texans 36-33 in Week 3.  The Patriots needed a 25-yard touchdown pass with 23 seconds left to escape with victory as 13.5-point favorites. 

Tom Brady is a year older, and he just doesn’t have the kind of weapons he used to.  His best receiver this year is Chris Hogan (34 receptions, 439 yards, 5 TD Last year).  Julian Edelman is serving a four-game suspension, and Danny Amendola left for the Dolphins.  Brandon Cooks left for the Rams as well.  Outside Rob Gronkowski, this is a very underwhelming receiver group.  The offensive line is a question mark with LT Nate Solder leaving in free agency. 

New England lost defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who is now the head coach of the Detroit Lions.  And this Patriots’ defense fell apart late last year.  They also ranked just 29th in total defense during the regular season, surrendering 366.0 yards per game.  Then they gave up 41 points to the Eagles in the Super Bowl and couldn’t stop backup QB Nick Foles, who was dreadful prior to the Super Bowl.  There’s more questions than answers surrounding this defense heading into 2018. 

The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five Week 1 games.  This number is simply too high with the Texans catching a touchdown.  I actually think they have the better all-around team this year and will be one of the best teams in the NFL if all of the stars stay healthy that were injured last year.  They are at least healthy for Week 1, and that’s the key here.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

Note: I recommend buying the Texans to +7

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +3 

I believe the Jacksonville Jaguars come in overrated after making the AFC Championship Game last year.  They came out of nowhere to do it.  They finished 10-6 in the regular season before barely getting by the Bills and Steelers, and almost upset the Patriots.  Now they will be the hunted, not the hunters in 2018.  And it’s clearly they are overvalued because they are opening as 3-point road favorites at the Giants. 

New York, on the other hand, comes in undervalued off a disastrous 3-13 season.  They were hit as hard by injuries as any team in the league last year.  And head coach Ben McAdoo was not fit for the job.  But this was a team that made the playoffs in 2016, so there is still a ton of talent on this squad.  And they got even better in the offseason. 

The Giants have improved most in the trenches.  They nabbed four new starters along the offensive line, including LT Nate Soldier from the Patriots.  They will have a running game now with that improved O-Line and the addition of first-round pick RB Saquon Barkley, who is sure to be a star in the NFL for years to come.  Odell Beckham Jr. got his big contract, and now he’s back healthy this season.  Eli Manning has everything he needs to succeed. 

The Giants had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2016.  But injuries and poor play by the offense had the defense gassed last year.  That stop unit should come back energized and get back to being one of the better defenses in the NFL in 2018.  I love the addition of LB Alec Ogletree, who will become the QB of the defense after serving the same role with the Rams previously. 

There’s no question the Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  But it’s not complemented well by the offense.  Blake Bortles is still one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.  And his job got much tougher with the fact that the Jaguars lost last year’s leading receiver Marquise Lee in the preseason to a knee injury.  Their third-leading receiver, Allen Hurns, is gone to the Cowboys.  And former top receiver Allen Robinson is gone to the Bears.  The Jaguars are going to be so predictable on offense this year.  Teams will be able to stack eight in the box to stop Leonard Fournette, and that will be the game plan every week. 

The home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings between these teams.  Jacksonville is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 non-conference road games.  The Jaguars are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 September games.  Bet the Giants Sunday. 

15* Falcons/Eagles 2018 NFL Season Opener on Atlanta +2 

The Philadelphia Eagles had a remarkable run to the Super Bowl with their backup quarterback.  But now it’s time for the Super Bowl hangover in 2018, and I’m predicting it starts in Week 1 with a loss to the Atlanta Falcons in a playoff rematch from Philly’s 15-10 victory in January. 

The Eagles stunk up the preseason (0-4), especially Nick Foles, so their hangover has already started.  They lost all four preseason games by double-digits, and their offense was particularly bad, averaging just 6.8 points per game.   

Now Foles will have to start again in the opener because Carson Wentz isn’t quite ready to go.  And he’ll be without his top receiver in Alshon Jeffery, who is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery.  There’s just not a lot to like about this offense to start the season. 

The Eagles were able to get by due to a great defense that gave up just 18.2 points per game last season. But that defense won’t be nearly as good in 2018.  They lost DE Vinny Curry, LB Mychal Kendrick and CB Patrick Robinson in the offseason.  And now they are without DT Timmy Jernigan (back) and LB Nigel Bradham (suspension) in Week 1. 

Many overlooked the Falcons last season, but they still went 10-6 and had another great shot at getting back to the Super Bowl before that 5-point loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round.  Now they have basically their entire team back and will be ready for another Super Bowl Run in 2018. 

The offense is loaded with weapons for Matt Ryan this season.  The usuals are back in Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and the 1-2 punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the backfield.  But they used an early draft pick on WR Calvin Ridley, who may turn out to be the best receiver in the draft.  This will help take some pressure away from Jones in the passing game and open it up more for both he and Sanu. 

What got overlooked was the improvement of the Falcons’ defense last season.  They only surrendered 19.1 points per game in their 18 games including playoffs.  They finished in the Top 10 in scoring defense and total defense last year.  The only significant loss was DT Dontari Poe.  They have 10 starters back on D and will have one of the best stop units in the league once again.   

Plus, the Falcons are fully healthy entering 2018 because they basically rested their starters the entire preseason.  They should come out guns-a-blazing in Week 1, while the Eagles are behind the eight ball due to all their injuries and suspensions.  Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Thursday games.  Bet the Falcons Thursday. 

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Eagles/Patriots UNDER 48.5 

Both of these defenses are playing at a ridiculously high level.  Now with two weeks to prepare, that’s an even bigger advantages for the defenses.  I think points will be extremely hard to come by in Super Bowl 52, and this is my favorite total bet of the entire playoffs. 

The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch.  I think Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense will struggle big-time against this Patriots defense, just as they have down the stretch aside from an aberration against the Vikings. 

The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games.  They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game.  Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration. 

New England’s offense is still good, but this isn’t one of the best offenses of the Belichick era due to some key injuries.  They’ve done a good job of manufacturing offense to TE Rob Gronkowski and their running backs, but their receivers haven’t been all that productive.  And the Patriots have been held to 26 or fewer points in eight of their last 14 games overall. 

The Eagles certainly have the defense to limit what the Patriots can do on offense.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and that defense has really shown its teeth down the stretch.  The Eagles have allow 10, 6, 10 and 7 points in their last four games overall, and average of just 8.3 points per game.  They have an elite pass rush led by Fletcher Cox that will disrupt Tom Brady and company enough to limit them to 24 points or fewer in this game. 

Philadelphia is 22-8 UNDER in its last 30 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  New England is 8-2 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better this season.  The UNDER is 44-20 in Eagles last 64 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Patriots last 14 games overall. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team with a total of 42.5 to 49 (New England) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game, after four consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers are 71-38 (65.1%) over the last 10 seasons.  Expect a conservative, run-heavy approach from both teams that will eat up clock and limit possessions as well.  Bet the UNDER in the Super Bowl Sunday. 

20* Eagles/Patriots Super Bowl ANNIHILATOR on New England Money Line -180 

The New England Patriots have a huge edge in experience in this game.  That will benefit them greatly.  The Patriots have played in eight Super Bowls since 2002, winning five of them thus far.  I think they will grab their 6th victory over the inexperienced Eagles here. 

Nick Foles had a big game against the Vikings, but it’s worth noting that he got to play at home in both playoff games.  He was comfortable, but now he will be outside his comfort zone here on a neutral in the biggest game of his life. 

The Vikings game was the aberration.  The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games.  They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game.  Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration. 

Now the Eagles will be up against a Patriots defense that is playing lights out.  The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch.  It’s very difficult for a backup quarterback to win a Super Bowl, and I simply trust Brady exponentially more than Foles in this huge spot. 

I don’t bet a lot of money lines, but there are certain spots to do so.  The Super Bowl is one of them.  You get a cheaper price on the favorite on the money line in the Super Bowl than you would in a regular season game. That’s because there is so much money line action on the underdog that the oddsmakers are forced to lower the price of the favorite.  So we are getting the Patriots at -180 here when they would normally be -200 or more if this was a regular season game in the -4.5 favorite range. 

Plays on favorites vs. the money line (New England) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers are 26-4 (86.7%, +20.4 units) since 1983. 

New England is 12-1 (+10.7 units) against the money line vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Belichick is 28-0 against the money line (+35.2 units) after covering the spread in 8 or more of the last 10 games as the coach of New England.  Bet the Patriots on the Money Line in the Super Bowl. 

20* Vikings/Eagles NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3 

Everyone thinks the Minnesota Vikings got lucky to be here in the NFC Championship Game.  They saw that the Vikings needed basically a Hail Mary on the last play of the game to beat the Saints.  While that is true, let’s not forget how that game played out. 

Minnesota stormed out to a 17-0 halftime lead and still led 17-0 deep into the 3rd quarter.  I think they simply relaxed, and it’s tough to hold an offense as good as the Saints down for four quarters.  Drew Brees and the Saints’ top-ranked offense finally got on track, and coupled with a few mistakes by the Vikings with an interception in their own territory and a blocked punt, and the Saints got right back into the game. 

I like to focus not the fact that the Vikings held the Saints scoreless for nearly three quarters.  That’s no small feat.  The Vikings rank 1st in total defense (275.9 yards/game), 1st in yards per play (4.6/play) and 1st in scoring defense (15.8 points/game).  They also are 1st in 3rd down defense (25%).  They are the first team since 1991 to hold all 16 of their opponents to fewer than 40% 3rd down conversions during the regular season. 

In the NFL, defense travels, and I’ll gladly back the best defense in the NFL.  But the Minnesota offense doesn’t get the credit they deserve.  They scored 24 points per game and averaged 357 yards per game during the regular season.  Case Keenum threw 22 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions while completing 67.6% of his passes and averaging 7.4 per attempt.  And the Vikings have run the ball well behind a vastly improved offensive line.  They rushed for 100-plus yards in eight consecutive games to close the regular season, and in 13 of their 16 games overall. 

Many felt that the Vikings were cursed, and they were certainly feeling that way with 10 seconds to play before that Hail Mary.  But after getting that ‘Minneapolis Miracle’, I really like the mindset of this team now.  The Vikings feel like they are playing on house money and will be playing freely.  There won’t be a single situation they face Sunday that will scare them.  They will have the belief they can win no matter what the circumstances.  They really believe it’s their year now. 

The Eagles have a strong defense as well this season, but the difference in this game is going to be the fact that their woeful offense just won’t be able to do anything against this Minnesota defense.  The Eagles have managed just 13, 0 and 15 points in their last three games overall.  Yes, they scored 19 against Oakland, but I don’t count 6 of those points because they got a fumble-six on the final play of the game. 

The Eagles have managed just 81.3 rushing yards per game and 175 passing yards per game in their last three contests, an average of just 251.3 yards per game.  And that came against some suspect defenses in Oakland, Dallas and Atlanta all at home.  Now the Eagles will be up against the best defense they have faced all season, and I don’t expect that to turn out well at all for struggling quarterback Nick Foles. 

Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons.  The Vikings are 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* Jags/Patriots AFC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on New England -8 

The New England Patriots are the most popular team in the NFL.  And despite that, they have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They won the Super Bowl last year, the betting public keeps backing them, and they keep covering.  I can’t even explain how difficult that is. 

Now the Patriots are a win away from another Super Bowl appearance.  They made easy work of the Titans 35-14 last week and even gave up a garbage touchdown in the final seconds on fourth down to turn that from a 28-point game into a 21-point game.  And it’s worth noting the Titans went 2-0 against the Jaguars this season, outscoring them by 29 points in those two matchups. 

The Patriots couldn’t possibly be more rested right now.  They haven’t had to leave home since December 17th, so they have been in New England for over a month now.  They had a bye coming into the playoffs, while the Jaguars have had to win two games in the playoffs and played their starters in Week 17.  So the Jaguars are certainly fatigued in comparison to the Patriots. 

I trust Bill Belichick to make the Jaguars play left-handed.  They want to run the football and rely on their defense, making things easier on Blake Bortles.  Look for the Patriots to stop the run and make Bortles try and beat them.  Bortles has a 103 passer rating when playing with a lead, and a 66 rating when playing from behind this season.  I fully expect the Jaguars to be playing from behind. 

Last week’s misleading 45-42 win over the Steelers last week has the Jaguars overvalued.  The Steelers didn’t take them seriously and were looking ahead.  They dug themselves and early 21-point deficit thanks to a fumble-six and another interception that set up the Jaguars in the red zone for another score.  But we saw how vulnerable this Jaguars defense was the rest of the way as the Steelers racked up 545 total yards and 462 passing yards against them. 

You know Tom Brady and company are going to be able to move the ball and score points.  I think Rob Gronkowski is going to be a huge matchup problem for the Jaguars.  We saw Steelers tight end Vance McDonald catch 10 balls for 112 yards against the Jaguars last week.  You can only imagine the kind of game Gronkowski is going to have because he’ll be matched up with linebackers.  The Jaguars cannot afford to put Jalen Ramsey on him the whole game, and he probably won’t guard him at all. 

The Jaguars have a strong running game with Leonard Fournette, but Fournette was knocked out of the Steelers game with an ankle injury.  When he finally came back in the lineup in the second half, he wasn’t nearly as effective.  I think the rookie is starting to wear down now, and he certainly won’t be 100% for this game.  On the other side, Rex Burkhead is expected to return to the lineup for the Patriots this week, giving them another option in an already loaded backfield. 

If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you’re betting on Blake Bortles.  That’s not going to be a strategy I want any part of here.  Bortles is just 41-of-83 (49.4%) passing for 459 yards (153 yards/game) with two touchdowns and two interceptions in his last three games.  Belichick will make him try and beat them, and I don’t think he’s even close to being capable.  When the Jaguars get behind, there will be no coming back. 

New England is 8-0 ATS against teams who average 350 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game.  New England is 12-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games over the past two seasons.  The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff home games.  These five trends combine for a 44-3 system backing New England.  Take the Patriots Sunday. 

20* Saints/Vikings NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5 

I strongly believe the Minnesota Vikings will be the first team ever to play in their home stadium in the Super Bowl this season.  I feel they are far and away the best team in the NFC, but they don’t get treated like it.  They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites against the New Orleans Saints here. 

Getting the bye is a huge advantage for the Vikings.  They will be rested and ready to go.  And you could argue that they’ve had three byes this season considering they had a bye on November 5th, and their Week 17 game against the Bears didn’t matter.  They will be primed for a big effort. 

Conversely, the Saints have been in playoff mode for at least three straight weeks dating back to their win over the Falcons.  The Saints haven’t had a bye since October 8th which was way back in Week 5.  They were one of the first teams to receive a bye this season.  That will make them even more tired coming into this game. 

And the Saints have been hit hard by injuries defensively, which is a big reason why I’m quick to fade them here Sunday.  They’ve lost basically five starters to season-ending injuries on defense.  They are without LB Alex Anzalone, DE Alex Okafor, LB A.J. Klein, LB Hau’oli Kikaha, S Kenny Vaccaro, DE Mitchell Loewen and CB Delvin Breaux. 

All these injuries and the lack of rest has this New Orleans defense playing awful here down the stretch.  They allowed 31 points and 455 total yards in a loss to the Bucs in Week 17 in which they needed a win to clinch the division.  Then they allowed 26 points and 413 total yards to the Panthers in their 31-26 home win where they were life-and-death in the closing seconds just to win that game. 

One stat that really stands out in these two games is that New Orleans has allowed 60% conversions on 3rd down to the Bucs and Panthers.  They allowed the Bucs to convert 13-of-18 on 3rd down, and the Panthers to convert 8-of-16 on 3rd down. 

Now let’s look at this Minnesota defense, which I believe to be the best stop unit in the NFL.  The Vikings have the No. 1 3rd down defense in the NFL, giving up just 25% conversions on the year.  They are the first team since 1991 to hold all 16 of their opponents to less than 40% 3rd down conversions in every game.  Minnesota ranks 1st in total defense (275.9 yards/game), tied for 1st in yards per play defense (4.6 yards/play) and 1st in scoring defense (15.8 points/game). 

This Minnesota defense has been even better at home.  They allow just 12.5 points per game and 248 yards per game at home this year.  They have only allowed one touchdown in their last five home games combined.  If that’s not dominance, I don’t know what is.  And I think Minnesota’s home-field advantage is worth upwards of 4 points in the playoffs, which will be the most hostile atmosphere the Saints have played in all season. 

After all, these teams already played once in Minnesota back in Week 1.  The Vikings beat the Saints 29-19 in that contest.  They racked up 470 yards of total offense while limiting the Saints to 344 yards, outgaining them by 126 yards in that contest.  These teams are different since then, but I could see a very similar end result with a 10-plus point victory for the Vikings. 

While everyone knows the Vikings’ defense is good, they don’t want to give Case Keenum and the offense their due.  But this offense has been just fine in averaging 24 points and 357 yards per game on the season.  Keenum has thrown 22 touchdowns against only 7 interceptions this season while completing 67.6% of his passes while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt.  And the Vikings have been able to run the ball behind a vastly improved offensive line.  They have rushed for at least 100 yards in eight consecutive games and in 13 of their 16 games this season. 

The Vikings are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games, including 12-4 ATS inside their new stadium, which opened last year.  Minnesota is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Mike Zimmer is 9-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 24-8 ATS in home games as the coach of Minnesota.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

15* Jaguars/Steelers AFC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -7 

A big reason I faded the Jaguars last week and backed the Bills was the fact that the Jaguars played the 32nd-toughest schedule this season.  That’s right, they played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL.  It was a big reason for their huge turnaround season. 

I also think Doug Marrone made a big mistake playing his starters in Week 17 in a meaningless game against the Titans in which they lost 10-15.  They were already locked in to the No. 3 seed, so there was no need to play the starters.  I think Tom Coughlin was in his ear and his old-school ways overtook him.  It’s really going to cost them this week. 

The Jaguars were fortunate it didn’t cost them last week.  The Bills were the better team but lost 10-3.  They outgained the Jaguars by 39 yards.  They held this woeful Jacksonville offense to just 230 total yards.  Blake Bortles was awful, completing just 12-of-23 passes for 87 yards in the win.  He did shockingly rush for 88 yards, while Leonard Fournette was held to 57 yards on 21 carries.  His legs are the reason they won, but now the Steelers will be prepared for that element of his game after seeing it against Buffalo. 

The Steelers have had horrible luck in the playoffs injury-wise in previous years.  They have been missing one of the Killer B's basically every year they have made the playoffs in recent years, and it’s usually Le’Veon Bell.  But after resting the Killer B’s in Week 17, all three of Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are healthy going into the playoffs.  Brown is expected to return from his calf injury, and the Steelers are remarkably healthy everywhere outside of LB Ryan Shazier now. 

And boy are the Steelers going to be revenge-minded.  They were rusty earlier in the year due to Bell’s suspension and lacked chemistry.  I think that helps their 30-9 home loss to the Jaguars back on October 8th, which is one of the most misleading finals you’ll ever see.  The Steelers outgained the Jaguars 373-313 in that game yet lost by 21.  That only tells half the story. 

Big Ben hard arguably the worst game of his career, throwing five interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  A couple of those were tipped balls and weren’t his fault, but he was still jokingly contemplating retirement afterwards.  And Fourtnette had a 90-yard TD run with only 1:47 remaining as they were just trying to run out the clock.  So without that run, the Jaguars would have only had 223 total yards.  I think that’s a number that we can expect them to have in this rematch. 

Bortles only went 8-of-14 passing for 95 yards without an touchdown and with one interception in that game.  And there is the problem with the Jaguars.  They don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Steelers in this game.  I can guarantee you the Steelers are going to be much more productive on offense than they were in the first meeting. 

And the reason they will be more productive is because they won’t put so much on Big Ben’s shoulder.  Look for 30-plus carries from Le’Veon Bell because the Steelers realize they are better when he gets more carries as it has shown throughout their history.  That will open things up for Big Ben in play-action, and they won’t be playing into the Jaguars’ defensive strength, which is their pass defense. 

Big Ben through 55 times in that first meeting.  I only expect him to throw 20-30 times in the rematch.  That will negate the Jacksonville pass rush, which has been their strength all season.  The weakness of the Jaguars is their run defense, which ranked 21st in the league in the regular season, giving up 116.2 rushing yards per game.  The Jaguars have allowed 108 or more rushing yards in six of their last seven games overall. 

With Bortles being one of the worst passing quarterbacks in the NFL, the Jaguars are going to try to run the football.  Well, the Steelers have been stout against the run all season.  They have allowed 91 or fewer rushing yards in 10 of their 16 games this season.  They rank 10th against the run in giving up 105.8 rushing yards per game on the year.  And their defense is significantly improved overall, giving up just 19.2 points per game on the season. 

Pittsburgh is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games when revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a home favorite.  It is coming back to win by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% over the last two seasons.  They are winning these games by 16.5 points per game on average.  Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last eight playoff home games.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -2.5 

I was on the Falcons last week and I’m going to back them again this week.  Except this time, they are up against a much weaker opponent than they were last week against the Rams.  The Eagles are only a shell of the team they were with Carson Wentz before. 

A big reason why I loved the Falcons last week is because their perception is way down compared to last year coming into the playoffs.  But they still managed to win 10 games despite playing the 4th-most difficult schedule in the NFL.  And their numbers from a yards per play basis were almost identical to where they were last year, but they struggled in the red zone more than they did last season. 

The Falcons still had to settle for four field goals against the Rams last week, but their offense was productive in a 26-13 victory.  But what really has me excited about this team is how well the defense has been playing down the stretch. 

Indeed, the Falcons have allowed 23 or fewer points in seven consecutive games to close out the season. This despite facing the Saints twice, the Vikings, the Panthers and the Rams, five playoff teams in their final seven games.  They are giving up just 16.3 points per game and 319.2 yards per game in their last six games.  This defense is playing much better than it gets credit for. 

Now the Falcons should have another great defensive showing against an Eagles team that has been terrible on offense in its last two games.  The Eagles were leading Oakland 13-10 before a fluke lateral fumble return for a touchdown on the final play to win 19-10 in Week 16.  Then they lost 0-6 to Dallas despite playing their starters for much of the game. 

The culprit has been the horrible play of backup quarterback Nick Foles.  He is completing just 56.4% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt on the season.  He is only averaging 5.0 yards per attempt in his last three games, which came agains the Giants, Cowboys and Raiders.  Those aren’t exactly defensive juggernauts. 

I think a big reason Foles has struggled is because he’s a warm weather quarterback.  He played for Arizona in college and mostly in perfect weather out on the West Coast.  Now he’s in Philadelphia and has played three straight cold weather games at New York, and at home against Oakland and Dallas.  And the temperature Saturday is going to be a high of 30 and a low of 18 with 10 mile per hour winds.  I don’t trust him one bit, and I don’t think the Philadelphia players trust him either. 

As I mentioned before, the Falcons played the 4th-most difficult schedule this season.  The Eagles played the 21st-toughest to compare.  They simply took advantage of an easy schedule, won basically all of their close games, and got great play from Carson Wentz to lead the way.  But Wentz is no longer here to save the day, otherwise this would be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  The difference from Wentz to Foles is 7-plus points, if not more. 

I still think Atlanta is on a mission to make up for last year’s Super Bowl debacle.  That has shown here down the stretch as they have won four of their last five with their only loss coming on the road to the Saints.  The Eagles have shown signs of being a fraud with Foles against the Giants, Cowboys and Raiders down the stretch, and now they will be up against their best opponent yet in Atlanta. 

Plays on favorites (Atlanta) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games against a hot team, a team that won 8 of their last 10 games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Atlanta is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 7-0 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last three years.  Bet the Falcons Saturday. 

20* Bills/Jaguars NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo +9 

Both the Bills and Jaguars were Cinderella stories this season.  The Jaguars won their first-ever AFC South title, will be going to the playoffs for the first time since 2007, and will hosting their first playoff game since 1999.  The Bills were able to snap the longest playoff drought in the NFL, getting back to the postseason for the first time since 1999. 

The books have simply set this number too high.  The Jaguars cannot be laying more than a touchdown to the Bills in this matchup.  The Jaguars may be 3 to 4 points better on a neutral field, so this line should be closer to 6 or 7.  I think we’re getting a ton of value with the Bills +9 here folks. 

A lot will be made of the Bills’ point differential leading into this game.  It’s the fifth-worst point differential of any team to ever make the playoffs at -57.  But keep in mind that Nate Peterman was responsible for a lot of that in a 24-54 loss to the Chargers.  And also, the four teams will worse point differentials in playoff history all won their first playoff game. 

Another thing you’ll hear is that the Jaguars lead the NFL in sacks.  Well, now they’ll be up against a mobile quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, who has been one of the most underrated signal callers in the NFL over the past few seasons.  Taylor led the Bills to three wins in the final four games just to get into the playoffs.  Taylor has completed 62.6% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, while also rushing for 427 yards and four scores on 5.1 per carry. 

I think the Jaguars made a big mistake not resting their starters in Week 17 against the Titans.  They were already locked into the No. 3 seed and had nothing to play for.  Doug Marrone and his old-school mentality that may have been influenced by Tom Coughlin was clearly not happy with the 33-44 loss at San Francisco the week before.  But the Jaguars were even worse against the Titans in a 10-15 loss, managing just 227 total yards while turning it over four times.  They aren’t playing well coming in, and now they won’t be fresh, either. 

The Bills have really stepped it up defensively here down the stretch.  They have given up 16 or fewer points in four of their last six games overall.  The only exceptions were the 23 and the 37 allowed to the Patriots in their two meetings with them, which is no shame.  Their defense is good enough to contain Blake Bortles and this weak Jacksonville offense.  That’s another reason the Jaguars can’t be this big of a favorite because Bortles is still their quarterback. 

The strength of the Bills offensively is their running game.  They have rushed for at least 104 yards in six of their last seven games and rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 126.1 yards per game.  LeSean McCoy is a fast healer and should be ready to go as he returned to practice late in the week.  And the weakness of the Jaguars’ defense is against the run.  They rank 21st in rushing defense at 116.2 yards per game and 4.3 per carry allowed.  The Jaguars have allowed at least 108 rushing yards in five of their last six games overall. 

A big reason for the Jaguars’ success this season is their weak schedule.  They actually played the easiest (32nd) schedule in the entire NFL.  The Bills played the 16th-toughest schedule.  According to Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule rankings, the team that played the tougher schedule in the regular season is 41-19 SU & 41-18-1 ATS since the inception of the Wild Card.  Underdogs that played the harder schedule are 21-9 ATS.  When the difference is 10 or more, the team that played the tougher schedule is 24-5 SU & 23-5-1 ATS.  Take the Bills Sunday. 

15* Falcons/Rams NFC Saturday No-Brainer on Atlanta +6.5 

The Atlanta Falcons are going to be highly motivated to make a deep run in the playoffs after what happened to them in the Super Bowl last year, blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots.  They have held it together pretty well this season and have avoided that dreaded Super Bowl hangover. 

I like the fact that the Falcons have been in must-win mode here down the stretch, which is basically playoff mode, so they are battle-tested and ready to go.  The Falcons have gone 3-1 down the stretch while outgaining all four opponents, their only loss coming on the road at New Orleans. 

Last week they needed a win to get in the playoffs, and boy did they deliver.  They beat the Panthers 22-10 at home and outgained them by 123 total yards.  Matt Ryan threw for 317 yards and a touchdown without an interception to lead the way.  The defense came through with arguably their best performance of the season, limiting Cam Newton to 14-of-34 passing for 180 yards and forcing three interceptions.  The Panthers managed just 248 total yards in the game. 

The Rams were smart to rest many of their starters against the 49ers last week.  And I have been high on this team all season, but they weren’t in playoff mode in Week 17, and I don’t trust their inexperience in this pressure-packed situation.  Mostly everyone on the roster has little-to-no playoff experience, including QB Jared Goff.  I certainly trust Ryan more in this situation than Goff.  And we’re getting 6.5 points with the Falcons to boot. 

The Falcons actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential.  Only the Saints, Jaguars and Vikings have been better in this department.  That’s even more impressive when you consider the Falcons faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the entire NFL this season.  This team isn’t as broken as the media leads you on to believe. 

While the Falcons played the 4th-toughest schedule, the Rams played the 17th-hardest.  That’s important when we look at a wild card system that is tried and true.  Since the inception of the wild card, teams that played the tougher schedule according to Jeff Sagarin’s rankings are 41-19 SU & 41-18-1 ATS.  Underdogs with the tougher schedule are 21-9 ATS.  When the difference is 10 or more, like it is here (4th & 17th), the team that played the harder schedule is 24-5 SU & 23-5-1 ATS. 

Atlanta is 6-0 ATS against NFC West opponents over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining less than 90 rushing yards in its previous game.  The Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Roll with the Falcons Saturday. 

20* Chiefs/Titans NFL Wild Card Opener on UNDER 44.5 

The Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans will play in a defensive battle to open the playoffs Saturday afternoon.  It will be cold in Kansas City on Saturday with a high of 31 degrees and wins from 10 to 15 miles per hour, so the weather will aid this UNDER as well. 

The Chiefs give up some plays between the 20’s, but they buckle down in the red zone, especially at home.  Kansas City is only allowing 16.9 points per game at home this season.  In fact, the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 20 points at home all year!  They’ve given up 13, 13, 15 and 16 points in their last four home games, respectively. 

The Titans have been held to 23 or fewer points in six of their last seven road games.  They are scoring just 14.7 points per game in their last seven road games.  Their offense has been terrible all season as Marcus Mariota is extremely overrated.  And they no longer have the dangerous 1-2 punch in the backfield as DeMarco Murray has missed time down the stretch and won’t play in this game.  Making matters worse is that no receivers are getting separation for Mariota. 

The Chiefs got off to a tremendous start to the season offensively, but things have cooled off significantly for them on that side of the ball down the stretch.  They are averaging 22.7 points per game in their last seven games overall.  Based on these averages with the Chiefs’ offense down the stretch and the Titans on the road, we’re looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of a 23-15 game, which would be well below the 44.5-point total. 

Tennessee has been playing some very good defense here down the stretch.  They Titans have allowed 22 or fewer points in nine of their last 12 games.  They have allowed 16 points or fewer in four of their final six games.  They are giving up just 19.2 points per game in their last 12 games overall.  They are fully capable of keeping this Kansas City offense in check Saturday. 

The UNDER is 44-19 in Chiefs last 63 home games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five playoff home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six home games with a total between 42.5 and 45 points.  Kansas City is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing with 6 or fewer days’ rest over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four playoff games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +9 

The fact that this is a must-win game for the Seahawks is baked into the number.  They need to win and have the Falcons lost at home to the Panthers to get into the playoffs.  But this line has gotten out of hand and indicates the Cardinals are just going to lay down for them.  That won’t be the case. 

There is rumors that it may be the last game for Bruce Arians at Arizona.  His players absolutely love him and it’s well documented.  It could also be the final game for Larry Fitzgerald.  I think everyone will play their hearts out for those two guys, and they would love nothing more than to be the team that knocked the hated Seahawks out of the playoffs. 

Quietly, the Cardinals have gotten to 7-8 this season and will be motivated to finish .500 as well.  They have been hit hard by injuries, but have battled through it.  They are playing their best football of the season down the stretch. 

The Cardinals have actually outgained four of their last five opponents while going 3-2 over their last five games.  Their defense is playing as well as any defense in the NFL, giving up just 247.4 yards per game in their last five games.  And Drew Stanton and his big arm and mobility has given the offense spark.  He is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. 

I think Seattle beating Dallas 21-12 on the road last week has them overvalued now.  But that was one of the most misleading finals you will ever see.  They actually had more penalty yards (142) than total yards (136) of offense in that game.  They were outgained by 147 yards by the Cowboys. 

In fact, the Seahawks have been playing terrible for four straight weeks.  They have been outgained in four consecutive games and by a total of 488 yards in those four, or by an average of 122 yards per game.  The betting public is quick to forget that Seattle was just blown out at home 42-7 by the Rams the week prior.  What a difference a week and a misleading 21-12 win over Dallas makes.  Their offense is still a mess, and their defense still has injuries everywhere. 

Arizona always plays Seattle tough, and that will be no different hear.  And home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series of late.  The road team is 5-0-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Arizona won outright as 9-point dogs and as 3-point dogs in its last two trips to Seattle.  The Cardinals may not win outright Sunday, but they will give the Seahawks more of a fight than they bargained for. 

Arians is 9-1 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent in all games he has coached.  Arians is a perfect 7-0 ATS revenging a loss loss by 7 points or less as the coach of Arizona.  After a tough 22-16 home loss to the Seahawks thanks to a miracle play from Russell Wilson, the Cardinals will be revenge-minded here and have the ability to pull off the upset.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday. 

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +4 

I’ve been on the 49ers every week since Jimmy Garoppolo took over.  I’m not about to buck them now.  They are 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS since he took over.  He is undefeated in his career as a starting quarterback dating back to his time with New England.  He is the real deal. 

If you don’t believe Garoppolo is for real after he put up 44 points on Jacksonville’s vaunted defense last week, you need your head checked.  Garopplo is completing 69.0% of his passes for 1,268 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for the 49ers.  He is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.  Those are MVP-type numbers over a four-game sample. 

The success the offense is having has prompted the defense to step up their game and play with a new passion as well.  The defense is giving up just 21.5 points per game over their past four games.  It’s a stop unit with a ton of talent along the front seven, and the secondary intercepted Blake Bortles three times last week.  The 49ers want to finish off this 5-0 run and keep their momentum going into the offseason. 

But the key handicap for this game is the motivation for the and rest situation for the Rams.  I locked in the 49ers +4 early in the week anticipating that the Rams might rest starters.  And that’s precisely what has happened in this game.  Head coach Sean McVey came out and said that almost all of his key starters are going to rest, including Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and many others. 

It was another wise move by McVey, who has been as impressive as any head coach this season.  It makes 100% sense.  The Rams are going to have to play next week, and they’re going to get a home game.  It would actually benefit them to lose and get the No. 4 seed instead of fighting for the No. 3 seed. 

That’s because the No. 4 seed is going to likely get to play the No. 1 seed Philadelphia Eagles two weeks from now.  They would take on struggling Nick Foles and the Eagles, who have limped to the finish line, instead of taking on No. 2 seed Minnesota, which looks like the best team in the NFC.  The Rams were already throttled 24-7 on the road by the Vikings and don’t want to have to play them again.  They nearly beat the Eagles, losing 35-43 in the game that Carson Wentz got hurt. 

Plays on favorites (San Francisco) after covering two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 45-15 (75%) ATS since 1983.  The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams.  Take the 49ers Sunday. 

Note: I locked this line in at +4 early in the week anticipating the Rams would likely be resting their starters.  That has turned out to be true.  This is still a 20* play all the way to 49ers -3.  It’s a 15* play at -3.5 or higher.  I think there’s a good chance the 49ers blow them out of the building still, so don’t let the line move shy you away from betting them.  It's a benefit to my long-term clients to get the plays as soon as I release them instead of purchasing the day of the game and getting worse lines.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +14 

The Cleveland Browns are now assured the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.  I don’t think they were purposely tanking this season to get that pick, but that’s what happens when you go 0-15.  So now their focus will be on getting a win and not becoming the second 0-16 team, joining the Detroit Lions. 

I took the Browns early in the week when the line came out anticipating that the Steelers were going to rest their starters.  The Steelers clinched a first-round bye on Monday with their 34-6 win over the Texans.  So now they’ll be on a short week, and they would be wise to rest their starters. 

Plus, the Patriots are 15.5-point home favorites over the Jets.  Conventional wisdom says the Patriots aren’t losing that game, so the Steelers have no chance to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  The more important thing is for them to be healthy going into the playoffs because they haven’t been fully healthy for years. 

The Killer B’s have all missed time in the playoffs in recent years.  Le’Veon Bell seems to get hurt going into or during the playoffs every year.  But he’s healthy now and Mike Tomlin would be wise to sit him.  He would also be wise to sit Big Ten, and Antonio Brown is already out.  He is expected to return for the playoffs, though. 

Tomlin has already hinted at all three of these players resting early on in the week, and tackle Marcus Gilbert came out and said as much as Big Ten and Bell won’t play.  He said Landry Jones will get the start.  Don’t be surprised if several other key players get the day off. 

This happened in Week 17 last year as well.  Cleveland nearly beat the Steelers on the road.  They lost 24-27 at Pittsburgh as 3-point underdogs in overtime.  Don’t be surprised if this line gets down to close to the -3 mark as well if Tomlin rests as many players as I’m anticipating, and plays this like a preseason game as he should. 

Cleveland played one of its best games of the year against Pittsburgh back in Week 1.  The Browns only lost that game 18-21 as 10-point home underdogs.  They haven’t been as bad as their 0-15 record would suggest this season.  But they are last in the NFL in turnover differential by a wide margin.  They are -28 in turnovers on the season, which is almost unheard of. 

Design Kizer should have a much better day against a Steelers team that will be treating this like a preseason game.  I think the Browns want to go into the offseason with some momentum and a win.  They are only getting outgained by 23 yards per game on the season, so obviously it has just been the turnovers that killed them.  There are many teams with worse yardage differentials than them. 

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (Cleveland) - off a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent that scored 30 or more points in their last game are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Pittsburgh is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

Note: This play is a 25* all the way down to +10.  It's a 20* from +7 to +9.5. It's a 15* at +6.5 or less.  I realize this line has moved a ton since more information became available.  That's why it's a benefit to my long-term clients to get my plays as soon as I release them instead of buying them the day of the game and getting worse lines.

20* Raiders/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -9 

The Philadelphia Eagles can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win over the Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football.  It’s safe to say they will be motivated to the max.  A win would allow them to rest their starters in Week 17 and really get a leg up on the competition heading into the playoffs. 

Conversely, the Oakland Raiders have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  And the way they were eliminated will be very difficult to recover from.  Derek Carr was diving for the game-winning touchdown against the Cowboys last week, but he fumbled through the end zone for a touchback.  Gone with that fumble was any hope of them making the postseason.  There’s no question in my mind that the Raiders will suffer a hangover from that defeat, and they won’t even show up Monday night. 

The Raiders also have some significant injuries at the wide receiver position that hamper them even further.  Both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are highly questionable heading into this game.  Cooper has a nagging ankle injury, while Crabtree suffered a concussion against the Cowboys that forced him off the field for the final play of the game.  They may both play, but I question the effectiveness of Carr’s top two receivers. 

The Eagles are a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 19.8 points per game, scoring 35.0 on offense and giving up just 15.2 on defense.  Nick Foles showed last week that he can man the offense just fine, throwing four touchdown passes against the Giants on the road and leading the Eagles to 34 points. 

Doug Perderson is a perfect 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive overs as the coach of Philadelphia.  Pederson is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win as the coach of the Eagles.  I don’t think the Raiders will enjoy the cold weather in Philadelphia Monday night, either.  I always like fading warm weather West Coast teams in these cold weather games.  It’s expected to be 26 degrees and windy Monday night.  Bet the Eagles Monday. 

15* Jags/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +4.5 

I’ve backed the San Francisco 49ers with success in three consecutive weeks.  I’m not about to buck them now as they are once again undervalued here Sunday as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They are 3-0 under Jimmy Garoppolo, and they are clearly playing with a new level of excitement and intensity on both sides of the ball now. 

The 49ers won Garoppolos’ first start 15-14 at Chicago as 2.5-point underdogs.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgunned the Bears by 241 yards and should have won by a lot more.  But they had red zone struggles with penalties and critical mistakes that had them settling for five field goals. 

Two weeks ago the 49ers went into Houston and won 26-16 as 1-point road underdogs.  They outgunned the Texans by 105 yards in that contest.  Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in the win.  The 49ers put up 416 total yards a week after amassing 388 total yards against a good Bears defense.  Those two performances showed that this is a much more dynamic offensive under Garoppolo. 

Last week the 49ers moved the ball up and down the field at will on the Tennessee Titans.  They only won that game 22-20, but it should have been a much bigger blowout.  They again had problems in the red zone and settled for a whopping six field goals.  Garoppolo had another monster game, completing 31 of 43 passes for 381 yards with a touchdown and zero interceptions. 

While the offense is hitting on all cylinders under Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan, the defense has been extremely impressive and not getting the respect they deserve.  The 49ers are only giving up 262.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in their last three contests.  They should be able to slow down a mediocre Jaguars offense that could be missing three key playmakers in Leonard Fournette, Allen Hurns and Marquise Lee. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars come in way overvalued due to its 45-7 home victory over Houston last week.  It was their third straight victory, all coming at home.  Now they hit the road for the first time since November.  They were last on the road on November 26th, getting upset 27-24 at Arizona as 6-point favorites.  They were actually outgunned by 125 yards by the Cardinals in that contest. 

Let’s just look at this game from a line value perspective.  San Francisco goes from being a 2.5-point home favorite against Tennessee to a 4.5-point home dog against Jacksonville.  Well, Jacksonville and Tennessee are two similar teams talent-wise, and yet their is a 7-point swing in this line.  So we are basically getting 7 points of value with the 49ers in my opinion this week. 

Jacksonville now has a two-game lead over Tennessee for first place in the AFC South.  Well, Tennessee is a touchdown home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams this week.  That game will go off at 1:00 EST and will be over by the time this game starts.  So the Jaguars are likely to clinch the AFC South title before this game starts.  I will certainly question their motivated this week if the Titans lose to the Rams like they’re supposed to.  Basically, I know for sure I’m going to get a big effort from the 49ers, but the Jaguars motivation is in question to say the least given the situation. 

Jacksonville is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off two consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Jaguars are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. NFC West opponents.  Jacksonville is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following a win by more than 14 points.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6.5 

The Cleveland Browns will continue fighting over these final two weeks to try and avoid a winless season.  Now they have one of their best chances yet to get a win this week against the 4-10 Chicago Bears.  And they are getting 6.5 points to boot, which is too many I believe. 

The Browns rank last in turnover differential by a wide margin this season.  They are -25 in turnover differential.  They haven’t forced a turnover in four games.  I think they have been extremely unlucky this season in the turnover department. 

Fortunately, this week they’re up against a Bears defense that doesn’t force many turnovers.  The Bears have only forced 19 turnovers on the season.  And Chicago has a ton of injury issues right now on defense that will make life easier on Deshon Kizer and the Browns offense. 

This is a good matchup for the Browns on defense as well.  The strength of the Browns is their rushing defense, which ranks 7th in the NFL in giving up just 96.1 rushing yards per game.  The Browns are actually 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per carry (3.3) allowed.  The Bears only average 177 passing yards per game, so stopping the rushing attack is the key to stopping them.  The Bears average 118 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  Cleveland is equipped to slow down Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. 

My favorite trend in this game pertains to Chicago head coach John Fox.  Fox is 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Bears.  Chicago is losing by 8.4 points per game in this spot.  That’s right, the Bears have never even won a game straight up in seven tries as a favorite under Fox. 

Chicago is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 home games versus poor offensive teams that score 17 or fewer points per game.  Plays on road underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Browns are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Take the Browns Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +3.5 

The Denver Broncos are probably the single-most underrated team in the entire NFL heading into the final two weeks of the season.  This team has a 5-9 record, and that’s what the betting public looks at, but this team has the numbers of a 9-5 team or better. 

The Broncos are actually outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game on the season.  That is one of the better marks in the NFL.  Their offense has just been mediocre at best, but their defense has been one of the best in the league, and defense travels. 

The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in yards per game allowed at 276.8.  They are second in third-down percentage (30.8%) allowed.  They defend the run well, they can stack the box because they have some of the best corners in the NFL who can play man-to-man. 

It’s clear that the Broncos have not quit, and their defense continues to play at a high level.  They have won their last two games with a 23-0 victory over the Jets and a 25-13 triumph over the Colts.  They held the Jets to just 100 total yards and the Colts to just 228 total yards in the two victories. 

But what really intrigues me is the performance of Brock Osweiler last week after he replaced the injured Trevor Siemian.  He led the Broncos to a season-high 462 total yards.  Osweiler finished with a 99.4 QBR out of 100, which is the single-best mark in the NFL in any one game this year.  He had 194 passing yards on 12 completions and two touchdowns, while also rushing for a score.  He is motivated to try and prove that he belongs as a started in the NFL over the final three weeks, and you could see that against the Colts last week. 

The Redskins are 6-8, and they have the numbers of a 6-8 team.  They are getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season.  They have been hit hard by injuries on both sides of the football.  Their defense is giving up points in bunches and cannot be trusted.  The Redskins have allowed 30 or more points in six of their last nine games overall. 

The Redskins were fortunate to beat the Cardinals 20-15 last week.  They were outgunned 218 to 286 by the Cardinals, but Arizona was held to five field goals, and their red zone struggles were the difference.  The Redskins have been held to 65 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games.  They are going to be one-dimensional because Denver ranks 4th in the NFL against the run.  But the Broncos are 2nd against the pass, so they are as equipped as anyone to stop Kirk Cousins and Washington’s preferred pass attack. 

I like the fact that the Broncos come in on extra rest here too after playing the Colts last Thursday.  That will give them ample time to get ready for Washington, and getting a few extra days of rest is huge this late in the season when players are worn down.  It will make them the more energized team heading into this game Sunday. 

Washington is 61-94 ATS in its last 155 games as a favorite, including 42-69 ATS in its last 111 games as a home favorite.  The Redskins are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 home games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  Bet the Broncos Sunday. 

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota -8 

The Green Bay Packers have quit.  They just suffered their dream-crushing loss last week despite the return of Aaron Rodgers.  Now they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.  As a result, management has decided to put Rodgers back on injured reserve, signaling to the entire team that they don’t care about these last two games. 

The Packers also have a laundry list of injuries elsewhere outside of Rodgers.  There are currently 19 players either on injured reserve or questionable, including WR Devante Adams, who has 10 touchdowns receptions on the season.   

Adams would be a huge loss, and it would be smart of the Packers to rest him considering it’s the second severe concussion he has suffered this season.  They shouldn’t risk his long-term health.  The Vikings have a shutdown corner in Xavier Rhodes, and they’ll put him on Jordy Nelson.  Brett Hundley won’t have many options outside, and those limitations are a big reason why I like the Vikings this week. 

The Vikings will be highly motivated.  They need to keep winning to clinch a first-round bye.  If they were to lose and the Panthers were to win this week, they would lose the tiebreaker to the Panthers because of a head-to-head loss.  That’s why I’m not concerned at all about Minnesota’s motivation.  They would love to kick the Packers while they’re down after so many years of frustration against them in this division. 

"I told my team this: We're a good team, we're not a great team,” Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer said. "I don't know if there's any great teams out there, but we're a good team. We don't have the luxury of looking past anybody, and that's really not our mentality as a football team (or) the kind of guys that we have.”

Hundley will face a huge challenge against a Vikings defense that ranks second in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense.  Conversely, Case Keenum is in line for a big day.  He is ranked eighth in the NFL in passer rating (98.9) and second in completion percentage (67.9).  Green Bay is No. 30 in opponent passer rating (100.5) and No. 30 in opponent completion percentage (68.4).  The Packers gave up four touchdown passes to Cam Newton and a season-worst 29 first downs last week.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or less are 54-23 (70.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vikings are 41-16 ATS in their last 57 games overall.  The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Vikings Saturday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 47.5 

The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Bucs should easily combine for enough points to sail over this 47.5-point total Monday night.  After all, they have played in some big-time shootouts in all meetings over the past two seasons.  I don’t expect anything to change with perfect weather expected for Tampa on Monday night.  It’s supposed to by 79 degrees with 5-10 MPH winds and a 10% chance of ran as of this writing. 

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings over the past two seasons with combined scores of 55, 71 and 54 points.  That’s an average of 60 combined points per game, which is 12.5 points more than this 47.5-point total.  And that 71-point effort came last year in Tampa Bay. 

None of those results were fluky either as both teams have been able to move the ball at will against one another.  Atlanta has averaged 33.7 points and 450.3 yards per game in the three meetings.  Tampa Bay has averaged 26.3 points and 380 yards per game in the three meetings. 

I think the fact that Atlanta has played two straight unders against two great defensive teams in New Orleans and Minnesota is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But the Falcons should have no problem getting back going offensively this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Atlanta still has an elite offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL In yards per play (6.0) despite the media perceiving their offense as down this year. 

Tampa Bay ranks 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 389.3 yards per game.  The Bucs also rank dead last in yards per play defense, giving up 6.1 yards per play.  They are missing several key players on defense, including arguably their best defender in DT Gerald McCoy, who is out with a biceps injury. 

James Winston returned against the Packers two weeks ago and has actually had no problem moving the ball.  The Bucs racked up 395 total yards against the Packers and 410 against the Lions and arguably should have won both games.  But the lost in overtime to the Packers and fell by a field goal to the Lions only because they committed five turnovers against Detroit.  They have also found a running game, rushing for 165 yards against the Packers and 133 against the Lions. 

Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER after allowing 7 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 8-1 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years.  The Falcons are 10-2 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 10-0-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Falcons last six Monday night games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are ready to turn the corner against the New England Patriots and exorcise their demons.  The Patriots have owned them, including their 36-17 win in the AFC Championship Game.  But Le’Veon Bell was hurt on the first drive of that game and did not return. 

Now the three B’s are all healthy and are the only 3,000-yard, 1,000-yard, 1,000-yard trio in the NFL up to this point.  And the Steelers are remarkably healthy as a whole.  They get JuJu Smith-Schuster back from suspension this week, and CB Joe Haden could make his return this week as well.  The only real significant loss is LB Ryan Shazier, and while that is a big loss, there’s no question the Steelers are the more healthy team. 

The Patriots are banged up everywhere, but mostly along the defensive front seven.  They have played without both Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy in recent weeks, and Alan Branch was injured against Miami and forced to leave the game.  All three players are highly questionable, leaving the Patriots short of pass rushers, which is why they signed Ricky Jean Francois this week.  Van Noy, Flowers and Branch are three of the most important players on defense.  They could not get any pressure on Jay Cutler last week. 

Their task gets even tougher this week against a Steelers offense that just put up 545 total yards against a very good Ravens defense last week.  Big Ben three for 506 yards and two touchdowns in the win.  The Steelers are the definition of an elite team.  They are outgaining their opponents by 77 yards per game on the season.  They have outgained 11 of their 13 opponents this year. 

This is an awful spot for the Patriots.  They will be playing their 3rd straight road game, and their 5th road game in the past 6 weeks.  That’s about as tough of a situation as any NFL team can be in.  Plus, they will now be working on a short week having played the Dolphins on Monday Night Football.  I think the Steelers will be the fresher, more motivated team this week and that will greatly aid them in pulling off the upset victory. 

This line suggests the Patriots would be 6-point favorites on a neutral and 9-point favorites at home when you factor in home-field advantage, so that fact alone shows there’s value on the Steelers as I would back them at both of those lines. 

Having a healthy Bell will be key in exploiting the biggest weakness of the Patriots, which is stopping the run.  The Patriots actually give up 5.0 yards per carry this season, which is the worst mark in the NFL.  Expect a monster game from a motivated Bell who wants to prove that he was the difference as to why they lost in the AFC Championship Game last year. 

Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more rushing yards per carry in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Steelers are 40-20 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or more.  Pittsburgh is 19-6-2 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  Mike Tomlin is 7-0 ATS in home games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday. 

25* NFL West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -2 

I’ve backed the 49ers with success in each of Jimmy Garoppolo’s first two starts.  I’m not about to buck them now as I think they are still being undervalued as only 2-point home favorites over the Tennessee Titans.  The 49ers have new life under Garoppolo, and they are treating this like a separate season.  They are 2-0 in this new season. 

The 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start 15-14 at Chicago as 2.5-point underdogs.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained the Bears by 241 yards and should have won by a lot more.  But they had red zone struggles with penalties and critical mistakes that had them settling for five field goals. 

Then last week the 49ers went into Houston and won 26-16 as 1-point road underdogs.  They outgained the Texans by 105 yards in that contest.  Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in the win.  The 49ers put up 416 total yards a week after amassing 388 total yards against a good Bears defense.  This is a completely new offense with Garoppolo, a much more dynamic one that is undervalued. 

The fact that the offense can actually move the ball and score points has the defense rejuvenated.  And boy, is this defense playing well.  The 49ers have one of the better front sevens in the league defensively, and they are showing it lately.  San Francisco has given up just 229 total yards per game in their last two contests against the Bears and Texans. 

The Titans are the single-most overrated team in the NFL.  They are a fraudulent 8-5 and are not a playoff team.  They have actually been outscored by 21 points on the season despite that 8-5 record.  They are also getting outgained on the season as their numbers just aren’t very good. 

Tennessee really only has one win by more than one score this season.  That’s because I don’t count their wins over the Colts and Texans earlier where Derrick Henry ran for 70-plus yards for touchdowns in the final seconds when they were just trying to run out the clock.  Both runs he could have gone down and the game would have been over.  It led to brutal bad beats if you were on the Colts or Texans in those two games. 

The Titans lost 7-12 at Arizona last week.  Marcus Mariota looks broken, and the running game cannot get going.  The Titans managed just 204 total yards in the loss.  Mariota went 16-of-31 passing for 159 yards and two interceptions.  He hurt his knee early and played through it, and that could be an issue again this week.  The Titans have been held to 92 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last 10 games.  They just haven’t been able to run the ball like they did last year, and they won’t be able to against this stout San Francisco front seven, either. 

San Francisco is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Titans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Tennessee is 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Mike Mularkey is 4-14 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Tennessee.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +7 

You have to have some seriously thick skin if you’ve backed the Cleveland Browns and continued to do so this season.  They are just 3-10 ATS on the year, but could easily be 10-3 ATS instead.  There have been eight ATS losses where they had a chance to cover in the closing seconds and haven’t gotten the job done. 

It happened again last week as they led by 14 in the 4th quarter against the Packers, but ended up losing by 6 in overtime.  So even backers who had Cleveland +3 couldn’t even get a push, even though it was the right side the entire game until the final play.  But I think the value is with the Browns as 7-point home underdogs this week to the Ravens.  When you’re getting 7 points, it means you can’t lose in overtime. 

The Browns are clearly way better than their 0-13 record.  They have the stats of a 6-7 or 5-8 team.  They are only getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season and 0.2 yards per play.  We saw the Browns fight down the stretch last year to avoid a winless this season.  I think they’ll do the same this season, especially since a win wouldn’t cost them the No. 1 pick considering every other team in the NFL has at least two wins. 

Statistically, the Ravens have been a worse team than the Browns.  They rank worse in total offense and total defense.  They are getting outgained by 31 yards per game on the season and 0.4 yards per play.  I question the fight the Ravens will have this week after their deflating 39-38 loss to Pittsburgh last week.  They blew a double-digit lead to their biggest rivals, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they have a ‘hangover’ effect from hat defeat. 

Big Ten threw for over 500 yards against Baltimore’s defense last week.  It’s clear that the loss of Jimmy Smith is a big one for the Ravens as the Steelers did whatever they wanted to through the air.  The Browns now have two legitimate weapons at receiver to exploit the Ravens.  Corey Coleman is back healthy now, and Josh Gordon has returned from suspension and has been a huge factor already in the passing game.  This Cleveland offense has a ton of potential moving forward. 

Cleveland has outgained Baltimore in four of the last five meetings in this series, including a 386-337 yard edge in their first meeting this year.  The Ravens won that game 24-10, but only due to five turnovers by the Browns.  The Browns had multiple chances to cover as 7.5-point dogs, but kept turning the ball over deep in Baltimore territory. 

Now Baltimore is basically an identical 7-point favorite in the rematch.  Flipping home field should be a 6-point difference, which would mean Baltimore would be a 1.5-point favorite based on the 7.5-point spread in the first meeting.  I think there’s value on the Browns at +7 because of this.  The Ravens may win, but it won’t be by more than a touchdown. 

Baltimore is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons.  The Ravens are 1-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three years.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) after 8-plus games are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Browns Sunday. 

20* Bears/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago +6 

The Chicago Bears have played nine straight games with Mitchell Trubisky as their starting quarterback.  They have only lost one game by more than 8 points, and that came on the road against the juggernaut that is the Philadelphia Eagles.  So they have been competitive in eight of their nine games.  And now they are catching 6 points on the road against the Detroit Lions this week. 

Trubisky is coming off his best game of the season.  He completed 25-of-32 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for a score in a 33-7 win at Cincinnati as 6-point dogs.  The Bears also rushed for 232 yards as a team and racked up a season-high 482 yards in the win. 

Another one of the Bears’ best offensive performances this year came a few weeks ago on November 19th in a 24-27 home loss to the Detroit Lions.  The Bears actually outgunned the Lions 398 to 352 in that contest and arguably should have won.  They rushed for 222 yards on that Lions defense.  Now they will want revenge only a few weeks later, and I think they have a great chance to pull the upset as the offense continues to click against an awful Detroit defense. 

The Lions aren’t the type of team used to blowing teams out, which is what it’s going to take to cover this 6-point spread.  And their defense is not good enough to be favored this heavily.  The Lions rank 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 363.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They needed five turnovers last week just to beat the hapless Bucs 24-21. 

What makes the Bears so underrated is that their defense is very good, and they have a strong running game.  The Bears rank 11th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 325.5 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  They rank 7th in rushing offense, averaging 124.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  The Lions are 20th against the run, giving up 116.3 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  They have allowed an average of 158.6 rushing yards per game in their last five contests. 

This head-to-head series has been extremely tight in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Lions and Bears have been decided by 6 points or fewer.  Each of the last five have been decided by 4 points or less.  That fact alone just shows the kind of line value we are getting with the Bears catching 6 points here Saturday. 

Detroit is 29-51 ATS in its last 80 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers against an opponent off a game where they committed no turnovers are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bears Saturday. 

20* Broncos/Colts AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver -2 

The Denver Broncos are just 4-9 this season, but they have the statistics of a team that should be sitting with a winning record and in the playoff hunt.  That is why they are undervalued right now, and I think we are getting a discount on them here Thursday as only 2-point road favorites over the Indianapolis Colts. 

The Colts are 3-10 this season and they have the statistics of a team that would be 3-10.  They are right where they should be.  They are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that has shown with four consecutive losses and seven losses in their last eight games.  They aren’t going to win this game, either. 

The Broncos are actually outgaining their opponents by 32 yards per game on the season.  They are led by a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 280.5 yards per game.  They are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play defense, giving up only 4.7 yards per play.  They are 22nd in total offense at 312.1 yards per game.  Not great, but way better than the Colts. 

The Colts are getting outgained by 85 yards per game, which is far and away the worst mark in the NFL.  They rank 30th in total defense (375.3 yards/game) and 30th in yards per play (5.9) defense.  They are 31st in total offense (290.7 yards/game) and 32nd in yards per play (4.6) offense. 

I think the short week actually hurts the Colts more.  They have to travel back home from the snow fest in Buffalo in which they lost 13-7 in the final minutes of overtime.  That game had to take a lot out of them, and don’t be surprised if many of these Colts players come down with illnesses after having to play in the elements.  This is a dome team not used to having to go outdoors and play in the snow like that. 

Meanwhile, the Broncos made easy work of the Jets 23-0 last week.  They limited the Jets to just 100 total yards in the win.  It helped that they got Aqib Talib back.  After spending little energy to put away the Jets, the Broncos should still be fresh.  That’s key with this short week.  That effort also shows that the Broncos have not quit on their season.

The Colts will be without starting center Ryan Kelly, wide receiver Donte Moncrief, slot corner Nate Hairston and cornerback Rahsaan Melvin against the Broncos.  The Kelly injury is huge because he is their best offensive lineman.  No quarterback has been sacked more than Jacoby Brissett this year.  That makes this a great matchup for the Broncos, who are excellent at getting after opposing quarterbacks.

Plays on road teams (Denver) a slow starting team that is outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after allowing 6 points or fewer last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.  Indianapolis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games.  The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Patriots/Dolphins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +11.5

The New England Patriots are in a tough spot here.  They know that their game against Pittsburgh next week will decide which team gets home-field advantage in the AFC.  Even a well-coached team like the Patriots can’t help but look ahead to a game like that.  They can afford to lose this game to the Dolphins, because no matter what happens this week, the game next week against the Steelers is for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Now the Patriots have to play a team that they just beat 35-17 two weeks ago in the Dolphins.  They probably feel like they can just show up and win this week.  But it won’t be that easy as the Dolphins will come to play against their biggest rivals, and they’ll want to exact some revenge.  And this time around the Dolphins will have Jay Cutler instead of Matt Moore.

Say what you want about Cutler, but he has actually played pretty well for the Dolphins this season.  He is completing 63.9% of his passes with a 15-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  He is coming off a great game against a good pass Denver defense.  He threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Dolphins to a 35-9 win over the Broncos.  The defense limited the Broncos to just 270 total yards and continues to play pretty well this season.

This is a Dolphins defense that is giving up just 20.8 points, 286 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home this season.  Their job just got a lot easier when it was announced earlier this week that Tom Brady’s favorite target in Rob Gronkowski will be suspended for this game due to a late hit against Buffalo. Gronk had nine receptions for 147 yards against the Bills last week.  He had five receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins two weeks ago, so his loss is huge for the Patriots.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Dolphins have actually won three of their last four home meetings with the Patriots outright. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Miami.  What also makes this a tough spot for the Patriots is that they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks, and their 5th in 6 weeks next week against the Steelers.

The Dolphins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore +5

Quietly, the Baltimore Ravens have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall to get to 7-5 and in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  But they have a bunch of teams on their heels right now at 6-6 and cannot afford losses at this point.  Clearly they won’t need any added motivation, but they get to play their biggest rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.

This 4-1 run has been mighty impressive.  It has included two shutout victories, and three victories by 23 or more points.  They have beaten the Dolphins 40-0, the Packers 23-0, the Lions 44-20 and the Texans 23-16.  Their only loss came by a mere three points in a 20-23 road loss to the 8-4 Tennessee Titans.  They have outscored their last five opponents by a combined 91 points, or an average of 18.2 points per game.

Sure, the Pittsburgh Steelers have won seven straight coming in, but five of those wins came by 6 points or fewer.  And three of their last four wins came by exactly a field goal in lackluster efforts against inferior teams.  They won 20-17 at Indianapolis as 10.5-point favorites, 31-28 over Green Bay as 14-point favorites and 23-20 at Cincinnati as 4.5-point favorites.  I think they are way overvalued right now due to this 7-game winning streak.

While the Ravens need this game like they need water, the Steelers actually do not.  Sure, they’ll be motivated to play their biggest rivals, but in the back of their minds they know that their game against the New England Patriots next week will be for all the marbles.  The Steelers and Patriots are both 10-2, so the Steelers could afford to lose this game and still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they beat the Patriots next week, which would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker.  I certainly question their motivation this week because of this scenario.

The Steelers also lost some key players in that hard-hitting game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football.  That means the’ll be working on a short week as well after playing on Monday.  Ryan Shazier was hospitalized with a back injury, and he is their most important player on defense.  He is their leading tackler, and his sideline-to-sideline speed will be missed.  Not to mention, No. 2 receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster has been suspended for this game for his hit on Vontaze Burfict.  That’s a big loss because Martavis Bryant has been a huge disappointment, and he’ll be asked to fill JuJu’s shoes.

Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game.  This Ravens offense has come to life in averaging 30.0 points per game in their last five.  The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC North opponents.  Baltimore is 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Pittsburgh.  The Ravens will want revenge from their 26-9 loss to the Steelers earlier this season back when they were really hurting injury-wise.  They are much healthier now.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -5.5

The Los Angeles Chargers have shown some tremendous resiliency this season.  After opening 0-4, they have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating.

Each of their last four wins have all come by 9 points or more, including a 21-point win over Denver, a 30-point win over Buffalo and a 22-point win at Dallas.  Their only two losses during this stretch both came on the road against two of the best teams in the NFL.  They lost 13-21 at New England and 17-20 at Jacksonville in overtime, so they were competitive in both losses.

This recent run has put the Chargers in a great position to win the AFC West and make the playoffs.  They are now in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Raiders for first place.  That makes this game against the Redskins massive for them, so they should be 100% focused and will actually have a home-field advantage now with their fans rejuvenated.

Conversely, the Washington Redskins suffered their ‘dream crusher’ loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys by a final of 14-38 on the road.  They completely imploded, committing four turnovers.  Now they are sitting at 5-7 on the season and have zero chance of making the playoffs in the stacked NFC, where it would take an 8-4 record to be in the playoffs right now.  I don’t expect the Redskins to bring their ‘A’ effort this week.

It’s worth noting that the Redskins still have massive injury issues all over the field.  They are missing up to three starters along the offensive line, which is the biggest concern against an elite Chargers pass rush that boasts Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.  Kirk Cousins was running for his life last week against Dallas, and it certainly won’t get any easier for him against the Chargers this week.  They are also missing several key playmakers like Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson.

Philip Rivers and this offense are hitting on all cylinders.  The Chargers are averaging 33.7 points and 457.7 yards per game in their last three contests.  That’s bad news for a Washington defense that has allowed 33 or more points in five of its last seven games overall.  Rivers has thrown for 1,039 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.

The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 14.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Los Angeles is 29-10 ATS in its last 39 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games coming in.  

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Chargers) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3

I backed the 49ers as my upset shocker last week against the Bears and they delivered, winning outright as identical 3-point underdogs.  I’m going to back them again this week with the same play title as I fully expect them to win outright as 3-point dogs against the Houston Texans.

The 49ers have new life with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.  He is a massive upgrade over C.J. Beathard before him, and I think he’s worth closer to a touchdown against the spread than a field goal.  This team was competitive before Beathard, losing five consecutive games by three points or fewer.  And they’ll be competitive the rest of the way with Garoppolo now.

I don’t think the 49ers are exactly getting the respect they deserve this week because they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Bears last week.  But that game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The 49ers outgained the Bears by 241 total yards, gaining 388 total yards on offense and limiting the Bears to just 147 total yards on defense.  One of the Bears’ two touchdowns was a 61-yard punt return TD.

Garoppolo was awesome, throwing for 293 yards on 26-of-37 passing.  He connected was 8-for-8 to Marquise Goodwin and 6-for-6 to Trent Taylor, his two best receivers.  His accuracy was impressive.  The 49ers had to settle for five field goals, but it wasn’t Garoppolo’s fault as they kept committing costly penalties in the red zone.  Look for them to clean up those mistakes and for the 49ers’ offense to be even more sharp this week in Garoppolo’s second start with his new team.

The Houston Texans are a mess right now.  They have gone 1-4 in their five games since Deshaun Watson got hurt, and they are now 1-5 in games that Watson doesn’t start this year.  They sit at 4-8 on the season and essentially eliminated from postseason contention after their tough 13-24 loss in Tennessee last week.  There’s just nothing to like about this Texans team right now.

First and foremost, their injury list just got even longer.  They were already without Watson, Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt and several others, but then they suffered more key injuries last week.  TE C.J. Fiedorowicz, CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Braxton Miller, WR Bruce Ellington and RB Alfred Blue were all knocked out of last week’s game against the Titans.  

They were already without WR Will Fuller for the past three games, so they are very limited at the receiver position right now.  Tom Savage is terrible, and it’s no wonder they have been held to 16 or fewer points 5 of their 6 games without Watson this season.  The 49ers are simply the better team right now on offense and defense, and they should not be dogs in this game.

San Francisco is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%.  Houston is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games after passing for 300-plus yards in its previous game.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +2

Let’s start by looking at this number from a value perspective.  This line of New Orleans -2 indicates the Saints would be 8-point favorites at home against the Falcons.  They would be 5-point favorites on a neutral field.  I would be all over the Falcons in both scenarios, and I’m all over them Thursday night as home dogs to the Saints.

I think this line is an overreaction from what happened last week.  The Saints beat an overrated Panthers team 31-21 at home, while the Falcons were upset 9-14 at home by the underrated Vikings.  The Falcons went 1-for-10 on 3rd down, which was the difference in that game.

But we saw earlier this season the Saints lost 19-29 to Minnesota on the road, so the loss to the Vikings is not a bad one.  And the Falcons go from being favored by 2 against a better team in Minnesota to being 2-point home underdogs to a worse team in the Saints this week.  From a value perspective, this couldn’t be much better situation for the Falcons.

Speaking of situations, this game is a lot more important for Atlanta than it is for New Orleans.  The Falcons are actually one game back in the wild card.  And they still feel like they can win the NFC South, which they can with the way the schedule sets up.  They trail the Saints by two games and still get to play them twice, while also getting to host the Panthers.  If the Panthers win out, they will be NFC South champs.  So their outlook is a very positive one right now even with the loss to the Vikings.

It’s also a bad spot for the Saints working on a short week here and having to travel.  The short week won’t affect the Falcons nearly as much because they played at home last week, so they will have max preparation time remaining at home here for this Thursday night tilt.

While the Falcons are very healthy right now, the same cannot be said for the Saints.  S Williams, CB Lattimore, CB Williams, CB Crawley, T Peat, T Armstead, and RB Ingram are all questionable for New Orleans.  Not to mention they have 15 players on injured reserve compared to just two for Atlanta.

Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last season, scoring a combined 83 points in the two wins and amassing 907 total yards in the two victories.  The game in Atlanta last year finished 38-32, but it was a 38-13 game entering the fourth quarter before the Falcons called off the dogs.

The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.  Atlanta is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. NFC opponents.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

20* Steelers/Bengals AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati +6 

Let’s look at this number from a value perspective.  Pittsburgh was only a 4-point home favorite over Cincinnati the first time these teams played this season.  Now the Steelers are 6-point road favorites in the rematch.  Factor in home-field advantage, and this line indicates the Steelers would be 12-point favorites at home if they played again right now.  That’s a whopping 8-point adjustment mostly based off public perception, and it shows that the value is clearly with the Bengals. 

Another reason I like the Bengals here is that their season is on the line.  The Bengals have saved their season by earning back-to-back victories over Denver and Cleveland to get to 5-6 on the season.  They are now just one game back of the 6-5 Ravens for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  They certainly need this game more than the Steelers right now. 

The Steelers showed last week that they are vulnerable.  The Packers gave them all they wanted in a 31-28 victory on a last-second field goal.  The Steelers are 14-point favorites in that game.  They let Brett Hundley do whatever he wanted.  Their defense is missing several key players, including CB Joe Haden.  Not to mention, S Mike Mitchell, LB Ryan Shazier, CB Cam Sutton and LB James Harrison are all questionable. 

Now the Steelers will be up agains the underrated Andy Dalton, who actually has a better quarterback rating than Carson Wentz does over the past five weeks.  Dalton is completing 62% of his passes for 2,372 yards with 18 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season. 

I would argue that the Bengals have the better defense right now.  They are giving up just 19.5 points per game on the season, including 17.6 points per game at home.  The Bengals actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play (4.8) allowed, ranking right up there with the Jaguars, Vikings, Ravens and Eagles.  This is an elite defense and one that doesn’t get the respect that some of these other top defenses do. 

It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh star receiver Antonio Brown has a nagging toe injury that forced him to miss practice on Friday and Saturday.  He is going to be a game-time decision.  Jeremy Fowler reported that the Steelers are preparing to play without him.  Martavis Bryant would stay in his role, while JuJu Smith-Shuster would likely take Brown’s role if it came to it. 

The Steelers might be wise to rest Brown given their positioning.  They are tied with the Patriots are 9-2, and 3rd place in the AFC is 7-4.  So even if they lost this game they would still be in line for a first-round bye.  They would also be in line for home-field advantage because they actually host New England in three weeks.  They get three of their final four games at home.  So as long as they win out following a loss this week, they would still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six December games.  Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Marvin Lewis is 33-20 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals Monday. 

20* Eagles/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +6 

What would this line have been before the season?  Seattle -7 is my guess.  That’s how much the public perception of these two have changed heading into Week 13 of the season.  Certainly the Eagles have earned that respect with their 10-1 record, but they should not be favored by 6 points in Seattle this week. The value is clearly with the home underdog Seahawks. 

The Seahawks haven’t been blown out all year.  They are 7-4 with all four losses coming by 8 points or less.  They haven’t lost any of their last 10 games by more than 6 points.  Russell Wilson always keeps his team in games.  He is guiding a Seattle offense that is putting up 28.8 points, 413 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play at home this season. 

A lot has been made about the injuries to Seattle’s defense, but the Seahawks have actually played very well in their past two games despite the injuries.  They have given up fewer than 300 total yards in four straight games.  They allowed just 244 to Washington, 290 to Arizona, 279 to Arizona and 280 to San Francisco.  These injuries haven’t affected their defense as much as the media is letting on. 

I realize the Seahawks have lost two straight home games, but they were two fluky losses.  They outgained the Redskins by 193 yards in their 14-17 loss and they outgained the Falcons by 81 yards in their 31-34 loss.  I think those misleading finals, clearly two games the Seahawks should have won, have them undervalued right now.  And it’s worth noting that the Seahawks haven’t lost three straight home games since 2008.

Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season, and that’s why the betting public just loves them right now.  And they have won four straight games by 20-plus points.  But all four came against cupcakes in Denver, San Francisco, Chicago and a Dallas team that was a mess at the time they played them.  And four of the last five games for the Eagles have been at home.  It will be much more difficult for them to play at such a high level on the road here against the 12th man in Seattle.  This is a huge step up in class for the Eagles.

Pete Caroll is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 11-2 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer yards per carry as the coach of the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 20-6 SU & 20-5-1 ATS in December games over the past six seasons.  Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Philadelphia. 

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - excellent offensive team scoring 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Seahawks Sunday. 

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Cardinals +7 

The spot for the Los Angeles Rams couldn’t be worse.  They are coming off two straight huge games against the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints the past two weeks.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Arizona Cardinals now. 

Not to mention, the Rams play the Eagles next week and the Seahawks the following week, so this is a massive lookahead spot of them.  This is the sandwich game here against the Cardinals, and I just don’t think they will have the focus or energy it’s going to take to put Arizona away by more than a touchdown. 

Conversely, this is a huge game for the Cardinals.  They sit at 5-6 right now and a win here would keep them in the playoff hunt.  They picked up a big 27-24 upset win over the Jaguars last week, limiting the Jaguars to just 229 total yards behind a dominant defensive effort. 

Blaine Gabbert has given this offense new life, scoring 21 and 27 points against the Texans and Jaguars, respectively, the past two weeks.  He went 22-of-34 for 244 yards against Houston and 22-of-38 for 236 yards against Jacksonville’s top-ranked pass defense.  He has played so well that head coach Bruce Arians has given him a vote of confidence for possibly being their starter next season. 

Speaking of Arians, I love backing his teams when they are home underdogs.  In fact, Arians is 11-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached.  His teams are actually winning these games by 3.0 points per game on average.  His teams simply come to play against the best teams when they are counted out at home. 

The Cardinals will want revenge from their 33-0 loss to the Rams in London in their first meeting this season.  Carson Palmer got hurt in that game and it spiraled out of control.  The Rams probably just feel like they have to show up to win, so they won’t be as focused as Arizona here. 

And from a value standpoint, it’s easy to see that the value is with the Cardinals when you compare this line to the line in London.  The Rams were only 3-point favorites over the Cardinals in London.  Now they are 7-point road favorites in the rematch.  When you factor in home-field advantage, this is basically a 7-point adjustment as the line says the Rams would be -10 on a neutral now.  The value is clearly with Arizona.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3 

Jimmy Garoppolo starting for the San Francisco 49ers this week is a massive upgrade at quarterback over C.J. Beathard.  It’s worth at least 4 points to the line, if not more.  Beathard was the worst quarterback in the NFL when he was in there.  The 49ers didn’t even score a touchdown until he got hurt last week against Seattle in the closing seconds, and Garoppolo came in and threw two passes, including a touchdown pass. 

The 49ers now have new life with Garoppolo at the helm.  This team has shown no signs of quitting despite their 1-10 record.  Keep in mind they lost five games in a row all by a field goal or less back when they had a competent QB in Brian Hoyer.  Now Garopollo is an upgrade over Hoyer too.  And he’s from the Chicago area, so he won’t be phased at all by the weather in Chicago. 

While the outlook is positive for the 49ers right now, it couldn’t be much worse for the Bears.  Fans have been calling for John Fox’s head for weeks.  The Bears have now lost four straight, including their 3-31 laugher at Philadelphia last week that was the last straw for fans of the team.  They were outgained by 280 yards by the Eagles and held to just 140 total yards in defeat. 

The Bears have a laundry list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but their defense was respectable up until the last few weeks.  These injuries have made this a below-average Chicago defense now.  There’s no question the 49ers are the better offensive team with Garoppolo, and they are probably the better defensive team now due to these injuries for Chicago. 

Speaking of Fox, he is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Chicago.  That’s right, the Bears have lost all six games outright in which they have been a favorite under his watch.  They are losing these games by a shocking 9.6 points per game on average as well.  Take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank today.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -2.5 

Certainly the situation favors the Detroit Lions here.  They come in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while the Baltimore Ravens are working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  However, I think this situation is being factored into the line too much, and getting the Ravens as only 2.5-point favorites is an excellent value. 

The Ravens are rolling right now, making their push toward the playoffs.  They will rise to the occasion in this difficult situation because they are built for December football under John Harbaugh.  The Ravens have gone 3-1 in their last four games overall with shutout victories over Miami (40-0) and Green Bay (23-0), a 23-16 victory over Houston and a narrow 20-23 loss at Tennessee. 

The Lions are a fraudulent 6-5 team.  They are getting outgained by 25 yards per game on the season and by 0.3 yards per play on the year.  Their defense allowed 359.4 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, ranking 25th in the NFL defensively from a yards-per-play basis. 

Baltimore relies heavily on one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Ravens rank 3rd in defensive yards per play (4.8) allowed, 7th in yards per game (305.7) and 2nd in scoring defense (17.0 points per game).  The offense is coming around in scoring 20-plus points in six of their last seven games overall. 

Matthew Stafford was hobbled with an ankle injury against Minnesota last week that forced him out of the game.  He would return, but he clearly didn’t look right.  Stafford is a gamer and will play through the ankle injury, but he’ll be far from 100%.  And he may not have top running back Ameer Abdullah, guard T.J. Lang and center Travis Swanson by his side this week.  All three are questionable. 

Jim Caldwell is 0-6 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of Detroit.  The Lions are 16-38 ATS in their last 54 after having won three of their last four games.  Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.   

Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) - after having won two out of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Ravens Sunday. 

20* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington -1.5 

The Dallas Cowboys are an absolute mess right now playing without two of their best players in Ezekiel Elliott and Sean Lee, among others.  They have lost three straight games all via blowout, and there’s a reason they aren’t favored at home here tonight against the Redskins. 

In the past three games without Elliott, their offense has sputtered.  They are averaging just 7.3 points per game, 235 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Dak Prescott has thrown five interceptions in his past two games, which is more than the four he threw all of his 2016 rookie season.  Opponents don’t have to respect the play-action without Elliott, so Prescott is constantly under duress. 

The defense has taken a big hit without Lee, who is as important to the Cowboys as Luke Kuechly is to the Panthers, which is saying a lot.  The Cowboys have given up 30.7 points per game, 411.3 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play in their last three.   

With Lee on the field, opponents have an 89.3 passer rating, a 42.4 total QBR, an 8-5 TD/INT ratio, average 3.5 per carry and 1.6 yards before first contact.  With Lee off the field this season, opponents have a 107.1 passer rating, a 69.2 total QBR, a 10-0 TD/INT ratio, average 5.8 yards per carry and 3.6 yards before first contact. 

The Redskins have fought through injuries in recent weeks to go 2-2 with impressive wins over the Seahawks and Giants, and narrow losses to the Vikings and Saints.  They limited the Giants to just 170 total yards in their 20-10 win last week.  They are now getting healthier and should have a few more pieces back this week. 

Kirk Cousins is playing great football with the second-most passing yards (3,038) in the league.  Cousins has torched the Cowboys for 625 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two starts against them. Samaje Perine has rushed for 100-plus yards in consecutive games and has found his role in this offense.  The Redskins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Dallas. 

The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game over the past three seasons.  Jason Garrett is 0-9 ATS in home game after scoring 14 points or less as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 0-7 ATS in home game after a low by 10 points or more as the coach of Dallas. The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing Washington.  Bet the Redskins Thursday. 

15* Texans/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -7

The Baltimore Ravens are as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.  It has allowed them to put together some strong performances here of late.  They currently sit at 5-5 and right in the thick of the AFC playoff race, so this is a huge game for them on Monday Night Football.

The Ravens have won two of their last three while outscoring their last three opponents a combined 83-23 in the process.  They have shut out Miami 40-0 and Green Bay 23-0 during this stretch behind one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Ravens only allow 17.1 points per game, 306 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.

The Texans have a different outlook.  They were looking great with Deshaun Watson running the show, but since he got hurt they have fallen off the map.  They are now 4-6 with essentially zero chance of making the playoffs.  And I'm not about to give them much credit for beating injury-ravaged Arizona last week at home because they were trailing in the 4th quarter of that game.

Tom Savage continues to prove that he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  This offense has been a shell of its former self without Watson.  And Houston's defense is no longer one of the better units in the NFL with all of the season-ending injuries on that side of the ball to the likes of J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Brian Cushing and others.  The Texans give up 26.2 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.

Late-season byes are huge for NFL teams, and the Ravens got one in Week 10.  They returned from that bye to crush the Packers 23-0 on the road last week.  They limited the Packers to just 265 total yards while forcing five turnovers.  So now they are the fresher team in this matchup as the Texans haven't had their bye back in Week 7 and have gone 1-3 since.

Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a win by 21 points or more.  The Texans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Monday Night Football games.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 12.  John Harbaugh always has his teams playing their best late in the season.  I look for Baltimore to continue playing well on MNF and to beat the hapless Texans by more than a touchdown.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

20* Saints/Rams NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5

The New Orleans Saints are simply overvalued right now.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and have become public darlings.  They found themselves laying nearly double-digits against the Redskins last week, and they needed two late touchdowns to escape with a 34-31 victory.  Now they are only 2.5-point dogs on the road to the Rams this week, who are at least at their level.  I think the value is with the Rams as only 2.5-point home favorites here.

Kirk Cousins had a big game against the Saints last week.  He guided the Redskins to 31 points and 456 total yards and played well enough to win.  But a lot of that had to do with cluster injuries for the Saints on defense.  The Saints were already without safety Kenny Vaccaro coming into the game.  Then they lost three more starters throughout the game.  They lost leading tackler A.J. Klein, top pass rusher Alex Okafor, and their rookie first-round pick in CB Marshon Lattimore.  Now all four players are either questionable or out this week.

Jared Goff and the Rams' high-octane attack should be able to exploit these injuries as well.  The Rams average 30.3 points and 375 yards per game as one of the league's top offenses.  And I like the way this Rams defense is playing, giving up just over 13 points per game in their last six games.  They are allowing just 14.7 PPG at home.

The Saints have mostly been beating up on cupcake opponents during their eight-game winning streak.  This Rams team will be the best opponent they have faced since getting blown out by the Patriots in Week 2.  The Saints also lost by double-digits to the Vikings in Week 1, the same Vikings team the Rams lost to last week.  So this will be a step up in class for New Orleans against a motivated Rams team looking to contend for a first-round bye, and getting the tiebreaker over the Saints here would go a long way to accomplishing that.

Plays on home favorites (LA Rams) - after having won three of their last four games against a hot opponent that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Saints are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game.  The home team has won four straight meetings and the home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* Seahawks/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +7

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off their bye week.  They certainly went into their bye feeling rejuvenated after picking up their first win of the season, a 31-21 home victory over the New York Giants.  They certainly earned it and deserve a few more wins rather than being 1-9 on the season.

Remember, this team lost an NFL-record five straight games by 3 points or less earlier this year.  That's how close the 49ers are to being 6-4 rather than 1-9.  They should probably be somewhere in between.  And I think they are showing tremendous value this week as 7-point home underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks are only a shell of their former selves right now due to all their injuries.  CB Shaquill Griffin, CB Richard Sherman and S Kam Chancellor all all out.  They are so thin in the secondary that they had to re-sign former Seahawk Byron Maxwell, who shouldn't even be playing in the league.

The injuries go much deeper than that.  TE Jimmy Graham, OT Duane Brown, G Luke Joeckel, DE Dion Jordan, DT Jarran Reed, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Michael Wilhoite and LB D.J. Alexander are all questionable.  So not only are the decimated in the secondary, but they are in trouble in the front seven as well with five linemen or linebackers questionable, including their defensive leader in Wagner.

This defense was torched for 34 points by the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.  That means the Seahawks are not only ridiculously banged up, but now they will be working on a short week and won't have as much time to recover.  Meanwhile, the 49ers have had 13 days off since their last game and come into this game as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

One of those close losses by the 49ers came earlier this season in Seattle, when they lost 9-12 as 13.5-point underdogs.  They rushed for 159 yards on the Seahawks in that game and should find some success against their front seven again this week.  The bye week will be great for C.J. Beathard as well, and he should be able to take advantage of this cast of misfits in Seattle's secondary.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (winning 25% or less) after 8-plus games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC West opponents.  The Seahawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and are once again overvalued this week.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +14

Since Mitch Trubisky became the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears, they have not lost a game by more than 8 points.  That's a span of six games dating back to a 20-17 home loss to Minnesota.  They upset both Baltimore on the road and Carolina at home.  Then they only lost by 8 at New Orleans, by 7 to Green Bay and by 3 to Detroit.

Trubisky isn't making a ton of big plays, but the key is that he isn't making the same costly mistakes that Mike Glennon was before him.  The Bears have only committed seven turnovers in six games since he took over, inlcuidng just three in their last four games.  That has allowed them to rely on their defense and running game, which are the two strengths of this team.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Philadelphia Eagles.  I was on the Eagles last week as my 25* Sunday Night Game of the Year.  I cashed that easy with a 37-9 win over the Cowboys.  But that was a great spot for the Eagles coming off their bye, and with all of the injuries to the Cowboys.  Now, after beating their biggest rivals, the Eagles will be flat this week against the Bears.

Philadelphia does have a good run defense, but it hasn't been tested much this season because teams have been playing from behind.  Opposing teams only average 19 rush attempts against Philadelphia.  Because I expect the Eagles to come out flat, the Bears won't have to abandon the running game.  They will be able to stick to their game plan, and that should be to run the ball 30-plus times to try and shorten the game and keep it close, which is precisely what they've been doing since Trubisky took over.  As a result, they've had a chance to win each of their last six games.

Will Philadelphia eventually win this game? Most likely.  But asking them to win by more than two touchdowns to beat us is simply asking too much this week.  There's no question that the Eagles are overvalued right now due to their 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS record.  Now this is the biggest favorites they have been all season, and it's only the second time they've been double-digit favorites.

John Fox is 9-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play as the coach of Chicago. The Bears are only losing to these good teams by an average of 2.6 points per game on average.  Fox takes pride in his defenses being able to contain the top offenses like the Eagles.  The Bears are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  I think the Eagles get more of a fight than they bargained for this week.  Take the Bears Sunday.

15* Giants/Redskins Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on New York +7.5

The Washington Redskins can't be 7.5-point favorites against the division rival New York Giants.  They have never been good in the favorite role.  They have only been favored in one of their 10 games this season, and they nearly lost outright as 11-point favorites over the 49ers in a 26-24 home victory.  So they'll be favored for just the second time all season here.

The laundry list of injuries for the Redskins is too long to name.  They have cluster injuries on the offensive line, and all three of their running backs are hurt.  Rob Kelley was already out for the season, and then last week Chris Thompson (39 receptions, 510 yards, 294 rushing yards, 6 total TD) suffered a fractured fibula.  Samaje Perine had a big game, but he also suffered a finger injury that has him questionable this week.  They also lost their big free agent acquisition Terrelle Pryor to a season-ending injury.  Star TE Jordan Reid has missed the past three games with a hamstring issue.

Kirk Cousins had a big game against the Saints last week, but a lot of that had to do with cluster injuries for the Saints on defense.  They Saints were already without safety Kenny Vaccaro, but then leading tackler A.J. Klein, top pass rusher Alex Okafor, and rookie first-round pick CB Marshon Lattimore all left with injuries throughout the game.

Cousins took advantage, but their defense couldn't hold the lead as the Saints scored touchdowns on their final two possessions or regulation.  This defense has cluster injuries among the front seven, and it's a defense that has been torched in recent weeks.  The Redskins have allowed 33 or more points in four of their last five games.  They have given up an average of 459.3 yards per game in their last three.

The Giants showed some heart last week in upsetting the Chiefs 12-9 as 10-point home underdogs.  It was a great performance as the Chiefs were in an ideal spot coming off their bye week.  Now this team can relax and start playing more freely after proving their naysayers wrong.  And they will be looking forward to trying to wreck Washington's season for a second consecutive year.

Offensively, the Giants have gotten their ground game going to try and take some pressure off of Eli Manning.  They have done so successfully by rushing for at least 111 yards in five of their last six games overall.  Their defense still has the talent to be a very good unit moving forward after being one of the best units in the NFL last year.  They showed their teeth in limiting the Chiefs to just three field goals and holding them out of the end zone last week.

Last season, in Week 17, the Redskins just needed a win to get in the playoffs.  The Giants had nothing to play for as they were already in the playoffs.  The Giants went into Washington and won 19-10 as 9.5-point underdogs.  That win just continued the dominance of the Giants in this head-to-head series with the Redskins, which is another reason Washington cannot be favored by more than a touchdown here.

Indeed, the Giants are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redskins.  The Redskins have won three times in the last 10 meetings, but all three wins came by 6 points or less.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the Giants here.  You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the last time the Redskins beat the Giants by more than a touchdown.  

The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.  Washington is 40-69 ATS in its last 109 games as a home favorite.  New York is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Take the Giants Thursday.

20* Chargers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Los Angeles PK

The Dallas Cowboys have been a mess since losing arguably the three best players on the roster in Ezekiel Elliott, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee.  Both Elliott and Lee are expected to be out against the Chargers this week once again, while Smith is a game-time decision.

The offense has really struggled without Elliott and Smith in a 7-27 loss to the Falcons and a 9-36 loss to the Eagles.  They have managed just 8.0 points per game and 229 yards per game in those two contests while committing six turnovers.  The play-action just doesn't work now because opposing defense don't have to respect Elliott and the running game like they normally do.  It's proving that Dak Prescott is no more than an average quarterback.  Not having Smith has allowed the Falcons and Eagles to sack Prescott a combined 12 times.

The Cowboys have been much better defensively when Lee is on the field than when he isn't.  They have given up 32 points per game in the these past two games without him.  Coming into the Philadelphia games, Dallas was giving up a QB rating of 85 to opponents with Lee on the field, and a 108 rating with him off the field.  They were giving up 3.5 yards per carry with him on the field, and 5.5 yards per carry with him off the field.  He is as important to the Cowboys as Luke Kuechly is to the Panthers.  And now fellow LB Anthony Hitchens, who was taking his place, suffered a groin injury against the Eagles last week and was forced to leave the game.  He is questionable to play this week.

The Chargers are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate.  They have turned the corner, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two losses both came on the road to the Patriots and Jaguars in game efforts by a combined 11 points, including an OT loss to Jacksonville in a game they should have won.  The four wins have come by an average of 14.3 points per game.

The Chargers have an underrated defense that is giving up just 19.3 points per game this year.  They will be able to wreak havoc in the Cowboys' backfield all game thanks to the duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram harassing Dak Prescott for four quarters.  And Philip Rivers and the offense really got going last week, racking up 54 points and 429 yards against the Bills.  They should be able to move the ball and score points at will against this Lee-less Cowboys defense.

The road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS vs. poor kickoff teams who allow 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.  Bet the Chargers Thursday.

20* Falcons/Seahawks ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Atlanta +3

The fight the Atlanta Falcons showed last week against the Cowboys was impressive.  It was the type of season-saving win that I think bodes well for this team moving forward.  They dominated the Cowboys 27-7, limiting them to just 233 total yards and sacking Dak Prescott eight times.  Veteran Adrian Claiborne played like a man possessed with his six sacks.

And while the Falcons are just 5-4 this season, they have been nearly as good as they were last year from a statistical standpoint.  The Falcons rank 4th in the NFL in offensive yards per play (6.1) and 7th in defensive yards per play (5.0).  They are outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is.  It is also the best yards per play differential in the NFL, and it's worth noting the Eagles have played a brutal schedule up to this point.

While the Falcons are basically at full strength outside of Devonta Freeman (questionable), the Seattle Seahawks have all kinds of injury issues right now.  Richard Sherman suffered a torn Achilles against the Cardinals last week and has been lost for the season.  Safety Earl Thomas has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury.  CB Shaquille Griffin (shoulder) and S Kam Chancellor (undisclosed) both left the Arizona game and are questionable.  So their secondary is extremely vulnerable, and that's bad news for the Seahawks with what Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and company are capable of doing through the air.

There are offensive line injuries as well with Luke Joeckel still out, and now tackle Duane Brown questionable with an ankle injury suffered against the Cardinals.  Brown was traded to Seattle from the Houston Texans, so they cannot afford to lose him.  Not to mention, DE Frank Clark and DE Marcus Smith are both questionable, while DE Cliff Avril is out for the season, so they are short-handed up front on defense.

The Seahawks are just getting respect because they are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  But each win has an asterisk attached to it.  They actually trailed in the second half at home against the Colts before pulling away late.  They were fortunate to beat the Rams 16-10 despite getting outgained by 134 yards.  Their 24-7 win over the Giants is about par for the course for the Giants right now.  They need a score in the final seconds to beat the Texans 41-38 at home.  They lost 14-17 to the Redskins at home as 8-point favorites.  And they were outgained by the Cardinals last week in their 22-16 win over backup QB Drew Stanton and company.

Atlanta lit up Seattle for 28 first downs and 422 total yards in their 36-20 home win last year.  That win avenged their 24-26 loss at Seattle as 6.5-point dogs earlier in the season as the Seahawks kicked a game-winning field goal in the final minutes, and a pass interference wasn't called on Richard Sherman against Julio Jones that should have been in the closing seconds.  Matt Ryan threw for 323 yards in the playoff game and 310 in the regular season game, so he clearly isn't afraid of this Seattle defense.  The Falcons outgained the Seahawks 784 to 642 in those two meetings combined.

Plays against home favorites (SEATTLE) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC opponents.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four Monday games.  The Seahawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Philadelphia Eagles have quietly gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season to post the league's best record.  Yet, they don't get the kind of respect that other teams like the Patriots and Steelers do in the AFC.  Nobody just wants to believe in this team, and until they do they're going to continue showing value against the spread.

I think that's the case again this week as the Eagles are only 3-point road favorites over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Eagles are coming off their bye, so they've had two full weeks to rest and get ready for their division rivals.  Playing an NFC East opponent that won the division last year will have kept the Eagles focused all bye week and not relaxing and being content with what they've done up to this point.

Carson Wentz is guiding an elite offense that is putting up 31.4 points, 377 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  The defense is improving and getting healthier, giving up just 19.9 points per game, 316 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  The secondary has gotten back a couple key pieces here over the past couple weeks and will be one of the most formidable units in the NFL moving forward.

The Dallas Cowboys are a mess right now.  The Ezekiel Elliott 6-game suspension has been upheld, and he was forced to miss last week's 27-7 loss to the Falcons.  The offense looked lost without him.  The Falcons didn't bite on play action like most teams would when Elliott is in the lineup.  Instead, they sacked Dak Prescott  eight times, including a franchise-record six from Adrian Claiborne.  They held the Cowboys to just 233 total yards.

A big reason Claiborne had such a big game was because he was going up against a backup left tackle in Chaz Green, who was eventually benched.  Green was starting in place of the injured Tyron Smith, who is questionable to return this week, and his value to this team cannot be overstated.  This offense just isn't going to be as effective without Elliott, who has been one of the top two running backs in the league the past two seasons and is worth more to this team than he gets credit for.

Defensively, the Cowboys have all kinds of issues right now.  They seem to go as Sean Lee goes.  When he's in the lineup, they are an average or better defense.  Without him, they are one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  He is nearly as important to their defense as Luke Kuechly is for the Panthers.  And now Lee is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury he suffered against the Falcons.  Not to mention, CB Chidobe Awuzie, CB Orlando Scandrick, LB Justin Durant and S Jeff Heath are all questionable.

With all of these injuries and suspensions, and with Jerry Jones causing a stir with the NFL, I just don't like the current state of the Cowboys right now.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a win.  The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are getting healthier with Zach Ertz expecting to return this week, and I think they are looking forward to this opportunity to kick the Cowboys while they're down.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* Bills/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +4.5

It's pretty simple with the Chargers.  Bet on them when they're an underdog, and bet against them when they're a favorite.  You would have made a lot of money on Chargers games doing just that over the past several season.  The Chargers cannot be laying 4.5 points to the Buffalo Bills this week.

The Chargers lost a game in true Charger fashion last week, falling 17-20 in overtime on the road as 5-point underdogs.  They had the game all but sealed before fumbling in the final few minutes.  Then Philip Rivers threw one of his patented late-game interceptions in overtime to set the Jaguars up for the game-winning field goal.

I certainly do not like the state of mind of the Chargers right now.  They have come out of their bye week and promptly lost two straight to fall to 3-6 on the season.  That leaves them with a slim-to-none chance of making the playoffs.  And fans of this team won't be showing up to the game now as the Chargers actually have zero home-field advantage, which has been one of the most underrated advantages we have in fading the Chargers when at home.  Cuz they still get treated like a good home team from oddsmakers when there really is zero advantage from them, and more often than not they're getting booed.

The Bills sit at 5-4 on the season.  They have lost two in a row, but the outlook is still bright as they are currently the 6th seed in the AFC if the season were to end today.  I think head coach Sean McDermott made the right move to give the ball to Nathan Peterman at quarterback this week.  He looked great in the preseason and could prove to be a fifth-round steal.

Peterman replaced Tyrod Taylor with less than five minutes remaining in Sunday's 47-10 loss to the Saints.  Taylor had completed just 9 of 18 passes for 56 yards, one INT and a career-low 33.6 passer rating despite the debut of receiver Kelvin Benjamin and the return of TE Charles Clay.  Peterman, making his NFL debut, completed 7 of 10 passes for 79 yards and one touchdown in two offensive possessions.  He led a high-octane offense at Pitt last season.

"I've been impressed with Nate and his maturity as a rookie in a very early point in his career," McDermott said. "He's certainly worked hard. When you look at Nate and what he was able to do through OTAs, through training camp, through preseason and then [Sunday], I thought he did some good things, albeit that was a small sample size in a regular-season game. That said, he has a lot of work do, just like we all do."
McDermott later added of Peterman, "He's ready. I wouldn't make this move if I didn't feel he was ready."

Let's be honest, the offense needs a spark, because the defense cannot continue carrying the load like it has up to this point.  Peterman still has the luxury of a great running game with LeSean McCoy and company.  And I have no doubt he will better utilize his weapons outside in Benjamin, Jordan Matthews and Clay.  This offense has simply underperformed up to this point with Taylor at the helm.

It's worth noting that Philip Rivers has been in concussion protocol this week and his status is up in the air for the Chargers.  Starting tackle Joe Barksdale is out, while starting center Matt Slauson and starting guard Forrest Lamp both have season-ending injuries.  Rivers has been under duress all season, so it's no surprise he took a beating last week against the Jaguars.

Buffalo is 52-28 ATS in its last 80 off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Bills are a perfect 6-0 ATS off two or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by an average of 9.7 points per game in this spot.  The Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games off two straight road losses.  Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games.  Roll with the Bills Sunday.

20* Rams/Vikings NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

What do the Minnesota Vikings have to do to get some respect?  Until they do, I'll continue backing them as I did last week as only 1-point favorites over the Redskins in their 38-30 road win.  Now they are only 2.5-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams this week.  This game could be an NFC Championship preview, and the Vikings want to make sure they get the tiebreaker with a win here if it comes down to it for home-field advantage and a first-round bye.

The Vikings are the real deal.  They have outgained eight of their nine opponents this season, so their record has not been fluky at all.  They are outgaining opponents by 69 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of an elite team.

Defensively, Mike Zimmer has one of the best stop units in the NFL.  The Vikings rank 5th in total defense (294.6 yards/game) and 3rd in defensive yards per play (4.7) allowed, which is the most important stat.  And the Rams haven't seen a defense this good all season.  The only other that would compare would be Seattle, and they lost at home to the Seahawks 10-16.  They also played the Jaguars and managed just 249 total yards against them.

The one aspect of the Vikings that gets overlook is just how good the offense is.  They rank 9th in the league in total offense (363.8 yards/game) and 8th in offensive yards per play (5.6).  Case Keenum has been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,914 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.  It was the right move for Zimmer to announce he is sticking with Keenum because he has earned it, instead of throwing Teddy Bridgewater in there.

I have been a big Rams' backer this season and still really like this team, but I think the betting public has not caught on to how good they are.  The value has been sapped from the Rams this week because they should be catching more than a field goal here on the road, instead they are only 2.5-point dogs.  That places the value squarely with the home favorite Vikings.

The Rams are 7-2 but they are feasting on some bad teams.  Their seven wins have come against the Colts, 49ers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Cardinals, Giants and Texans.  Five of those teams are terrible, while the wins over the Cowboys and Jaguars come with asterisks.  The Rams were coming off a Thursday game while the Cowboys were coming off a Monday game, so they had a huge advantage in rest and preparation.  And they were outgained by 140 yards by the Jagauars and were aided by two non-offensive touchdowns.

Minnesota has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Vikings are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rams are 28-58-1 ATS in their last 87 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Vikings are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams, winning by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +7

The Tennessee Titans continue getting zero respect from oddsmakers despite their 6-3 start that has included four straight wins coming into this game against Pittsburgh Thursday night.  They failed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 24-20 win over Cincinnati last week, but that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Titans outgained the Bengals by 108 yards and racked up 416 total yards in the win.

The Steelers have also won four straight coming in, but they continue to get a lot of love from the betting public and oddsmakers, unlike Tennessee.  They aren't getting docked at all for their ugly 20-17 win over the Colts last week as 10.5-point favorites.  The Colts actually led that game 17-3 and arguably should have won despite not having top receiver TY Hilton and missing several key players on defense.

At 7-2 on the season, the Steelers have a three-game lead over second-place Baltimore (4-5) in the AFC North.  I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency because of it, and that showed last week against the Colts.  Meanwhile, Tennessee is in a first-place tie with Jacksonville (also 6-3) and cannot afford to take the foot off the gas.

It's nice to see Marcus Mariota back fully healthy now after dealing with a hamstring injury earlier this year that forced him to miss most of two games.  The Titans are 6-1 in games that Mariota starts and finishes this season.  He threw for 264 yards and rushed for 51 more on six carries last week against Cincinnati, proving that his hamstring issues are a thing of the past.

The Titans have been remarkably healthy otherwise, which has been a key to their success.  The Steelers had been healthy up until last week.  But they are going to be without two key players in their secondary due to injury moving forward.  Safety Mike Mitchell suffered an ankle injury against the Colts and is doubtful, while CB Joe Haden broke his leg against the Colts and is likeley out for the season.  James Harrison is also dealing with a back injury that forced him to miss the Indianapolis game.  Mariota should find plenty of success through the air against the Steelers this week.

The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - off two consecutive home wins, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Titans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games off two consecutive home wins.  They are winning these games by 9.7 points per game on average.  Bet the Titans Thursday.

20* Dolphins/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +10

The Miami Dolphins should not be catching double-digits against the Carolina Panthers Monday night.  I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back the Dolphins in what will be a closer game than the books anticipate.  This is clearly a 'buy low, sell high' situation that I like.

We'll 'buy low' on the Dolphins, who have lost two in a row to fall to 4-4 on the season.  That includes their misleading 40-0 loss in Baltimore two weeks ago in which the Ravens scored two non-offensive touchdowns and only managed 295 total yards despite.  Then they played well last week, but came up short in a 24-27 home loss to the Raiders.

Jay Cutler clearly showed against the Raiders that he was healthy.  He completed 34-of-42 passes for 311 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Of course, it was a bonus that he got a healthy DeVante Parker back in the lineup.  Parker hadn't been healthy since Week 4.  He contributed five catches for 76 yards in the loss.  His presence will help open things up underneath the rest of the way for guys like Jarvis Landry and Julius Thomas, who both had receiving touchdowns against the Raiders.  Both running backs Kenyon Drake and Damien Williams also finished with six receptions apiece to show their versatility in the absence of the traded Jay Ajayi.

It was really nice to see the Dolphins come through with one of their best offensive outputs of the season, because this team already has a very good defense.  Indeed, the Dolphins rank 10th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 315.4 yards per game.  They have been very good against the run, giving up only 94 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  That will be key in trying to stop a Carolina team that wants to run first and pass second.

We'll 'sell high' on the Panthers, who have won two in a row since their ugly 3-17 loss to Chicago.  Everyone is quick to forget about that loss because they won 17-3 in Tampa Bay and beat Atlanta 20-17 at home the past two weeks, respectively.  That win over the Bucs doesn't look as good now, and Julio Jones dropped a wide open touchdown pass that would have given the Falcons the win last week.  The Panthers are extremely overrated now as they will be the biggest favorites they have been all season this week.

I just don't trust this Carolina offense to put up enough points to be able to cover a double-digit spread.  The Panthers rank 24th in scoring offense (18.7 PPG), 21st in total offense (313.1 YPG) and 26th in offensive yards per play (4.8).  Those aren't the kind of numbers you would expect from a team behing asked to lay double-digits.

Carolina does have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Panthers have been great against the run, but that won't be much a factor here because the Dolphins have one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL already.  The Dolphins are going to rely on Cutler to move the ball through the air, and the weakness of the Panthers is their secondary.  They give up 64.9% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  I think Cutler will have enough success to keep this game close, especially with a weapon like Parker healthy and back in the lineup.

And after beating back-to-back division rivals in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Panthers.  Plays against any team (CAROLINA) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 76-32 (70.4%) ATS since 1983.  Plays against home favorites (CAROLINA) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1983.

And he's another system that shows it's a good idea to buy low on teams who have failed recently against the spread by big margins.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Carolina.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +10.5

What more to the Indianapolis Colts have to do to get any respect from oddsmakers and the betting public?  I'm not sure, but I'll take advantage and back them as double-digit home underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday.  They should not be getting this many points with how well they are playing right now.

No team is playing harder than the Colts right now.  Two weeks ago, they went into Cincinnati as 11-point dogs and only lost 23-24 after a pick-6 by the Bengals in the fourth quarter.  They only gave up 276 total yards to the Bengals and outgained them by 55 yards.  Then last week they won 20-14 in Houston as 6-point dogs and outgained them by 83 yards, limiting the Texans to just 288 total yards.

Jacoby Brissett is proving that it was the right move for the Colts to trade for him.  The Colts have scored 20 or more points in five of their last seven games overall.  He is really utilizing TE Jack Toyle and star WR T.Y. Hilton, and the two-headed attack of Frank Gore and Marlon Mack is producing week in and week out in the backfield.

Pittsburgh is getting massive love from the betting public and oddsmakers now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  The wins over Kansas City and Cincinnati were impressive, but the 20-15 win in Detroit was very fortunate.  The Lions amassed 488 total yards on their defense, but went 0-for-5 scoring touchdowns in the red zone.  It was the third-highest yardage total in NFL history without scoring a touchdown.

Sure, the Steelers are coming off their bye week, which is usually worth a couple points to the spread.  But bye weeks can come at bad times for teams.  And I think that's the case with the Steelers here.  They were playing well and had a ton of momentum.  Now they've been feeling fat and happy for two weeks straight, and don't be surprised if they come out sluggish.  Plus, the Steelers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a bye, so Mike Tomlin clearly hasn't been pushing the right buttons.

Indianapolis is a perfect 8-0 ATS after having lost three of its previous four games over the past three seasons.  Pittsburgh is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games after covering the spread in four of its last five games coming in.  Chuck Pagano is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Indianapolis.  The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 November games.  Indianapolis is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Vikings -1

Let's just start with my favorite trend backing the Minnesota Vikings in this game.  Teams coming back from London off a bye are 11-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The two teams that fit that profile last week were the Rams and Cardinals.  The Rams rolled the Giants 51-17, while the Cardinals made easy work of the 49ers 20-10, both on the road.

Now we're getting to back a great Minnesota Vikings team that is one of the best squads in the NFC as only 1-point favorites against the Washington Redskins in this spot.  The Vikings have gone 6-2 this season.  Their two losses came 9-26 in Pittsburgh in Case Keenum's first start, and 7-14 at home to Detroit in a game they should have won by lost the turnover battle 3-0.  The Vikings have been rolling since.

Indeed, they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since.  They beat the Bears 20-17 on the road, came back home and clocked Green Bay 23-10 as 3-point dogs, thumped Baltimore 24-16 as 5-point home favorites, and won 33-16 in London over Cleveland as 11-point favorites.

This isn't a fluky 6-2 start, either.  The Vikings have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season.  They are averaging 358 yards per game offensively and giving up only 282 yards per game defensively with one of the top stop units in the NFL.  They are outgaining teams by 76 yards per game, which is one of the best yardage differentials in the NFL.

The Redskins are in a tough spot here.  They had to travel all the way out West to face the Seahawks last week, and actually pulled off the 17-14 upset as 8-point dogs.  Now they had to travel clear back East.  And that win was about as fluky as you'll ever see.  The Redskins only managed 244 total yards while giving up 437, getting outgained by 193 yards by the Seahawks.  Seattle kicker Blair Walsh went 0-3 on field goals, hooking all three to the left.

A big reason I was on Seattle last week was because Washington's injury report was massive.  The Redskins were without four starters on the offensive line, several starters in their defensive front 7, plus leading receiver Jamison Crowder.  Surely, the Redskins will get back a few players this week, but the fact of the matter is that their injury report couldn't be much worse right now.  They aren't going to be able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat against an elite team like the Vikings this week.  And Minnesota's nasty defensive line will dominate that banged-up Washington offensive line, which will be the difference in this game.

Minnesota is 11-2 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Vikings are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Minnesota is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games following an ATS win.  Essentially, the Vikings have been massively underrated ever since Mike Zimmer took over.  The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns +13

Let's just start with my favorite trend backing the Minnesota Vikings in this game.  Teams coming back from London off a bye are 11-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The two teams that fit that profile last week were the Rams and Cardinals.  The Rams rolled the Giants 51-17, while the Cardinals made easy work of the 49ers 20-10, both on the road.

Another trend that is an eye-opener and makes sense backs the Browns this week.  Teams who are 0-5 or worse and playing with 10 or more days' rest are 18-3 ATS in their last 21 tries.  Winless teams are almost always undervalued, and this just shows how winless teams off extra rest have been such a good bet through the years.

While the Browns are off their bye, the Detroit Lions will be working on a short week after beating the Packers 30-17 on the road on Monday Night Football.  It was a huge win for them as they had lost 24 of their previous 25 meetings in Green Bay.  They exorcised their demons with that win, and now it would only be human nature for them to suffer an emotional letdown the next week.  That's especially the case with the 0-8 Cleveland Browns coming to town.

It's worth noting that the Lions were only 9-point favorites prior to their game against Green Bay last week, and now they're 13-point favorites.  That just goes to show you how the betting public overreacts from a win one week to the next.  We're basically getting an extra 4 points of value now from the look-ahead line.

We saw last year that the Browns did not quit down the stretch.  They were fighting tooth and nail to try and win games, and I think that will be the case again this season.  They have more talent this season and this is still a very young roster, and young teams really benefit from bye weeks.  I expect the best effort of the season from the Browns this week.

Cleveland is 0-4 in games decided by 3 points or less this year, so they have been competitive in at least half of their games.  And most of their losses have been misleading.  The Browns have actually outgained four of their eight opponents, and they have only been outgained by 100 yards or more one time all season.  They are only getting outgained by 12.3 yards per game on the season.  They have an underrated defense that is giving up just 313 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this year, ranking 9th in total defense and 8th in yards per play defense.

Yards per play average is one of the best stats you can use to handicap how good an NFL team is.  Well, Detroit doesn't look very good in either department.  The Lions rank 20th in the NFL in offensive yards per play (5.1) and 25th in defensive yards per play (5.6).  They are gettng outgained by 0.5 yards per play on the season.  That's not the type of team that should be laying 13 points to anyone, especially a team like the Browns off their bye week.  The Browns are getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play for comparison's sake.

Detroit is 28-51 ATS in its last 79 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Lions are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit road win.  Plays on road teams (CLEVELAND) - after 7 or more consecutive losses, in November games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.  The value on the winless Browns is simply too good to pass up this week in this situation.  Take the Browns Sunday.

20* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +6.5

This is the 'game of the year' for the Arizona Cardinals.  Sitting at 4-4 on the season, they trail the 5-3 Seattle Seahawks and the 6-2 Los Angeles Rams within their own division.  So if they want any shot of making the playoffs, they have to win this game Thursday night.  That's why I'm expecting a big effort from them here.

I also like the fact that the Cardinals are the fresher team.  They had their bye two weeks ago, then didn't need to exert much effort to dismantle the San Francisco 49ers 20-10.  And playing on a short week in these Thursday night games is a big advantage for home teams.  They had the shorter trip from Santa Clara to Arizona, while Seattle is going to have the much further flight.

The Cardinals are also the healthier team.  Yes, they had two key injuries to David Johnson and Carson Palmer, but aside from those they are relatively healthy.  And the Palmer loss clearly isn't as big as most think.  They weren't playing all that great offensively with him before he got hurt, and Drew Stanton is a Bruce Arians favorite who is one of the better backups in the NFL.  And Adrian Peterson has shown he has plenty left in the tank, rushing for over 100 yards in two of his last three games, including 159 against the 49ers last week.

Conversely, Seattle's injury report looks awful.  Both Earl Thomas and Jeremy Lane were missing in the secondary last week, and the Redskins went 70 yards for the game-winning drive in a 17-14 upset victory over the Seahawks in the closing seconds last week.  Other key defenders missing include Sheldon Richardson, DJ Alexander, Marcus Smith and Cliff Avril.  And that was an awful loss to the Redskins considering they were missing four starters on the offensive line and several other key players elsewhere.

Offensively, the Seahawks could be without WR Tyler Lockett, who injured his shoulder.  They also have key injuries in the backfield with Eddy Lacy and C.J. Prosise unlikely to be available.  Russell Wilson is the team's leading rusher at 34 yards per game this season.  And their offensive line played terrible against a banged-up Washington defense as Wilson was running for his life the entire game.  They only managed 14 points on that soft Washington defense, and have been held to 16 or fewer in four of their eight games this year.

Arizona had had Seattle's number the past two seasons.  The Cardinals are 2-1-1 straight up in the last four meetings.  Arizona won 34-31 in Seattle as 9-point dogs last year.  That made up for their 6-6 tie at home in which they dominated the Seahawks but could only get a tie.  The Cardinals outgained the Seahawks 443 to 257 in that tie game.

Arizona is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 home games vs. good passing teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game.  Bruce Arians is 10-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached.  The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay +3

The Green Bay Packers are in a big spot here needing a win to keep up with the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North.  And I simply trust them to get the job done here as home underdogs more than the Detroit Lions, who shouldn't be laying points on the road.

The spot couldn't be better for the Packers, either.  They had their bye last week so have had basically 15 days since their last game.  That extra time has allowed Mike McCarthy to install an offense that is more tailored to QB Brett Hundley's skill set.  Hundley wasn't very effective in the rain in his first start against the Saints two weeks ago, but he will fare much better with this extra prep time against the Lions this time around.

The Aaron Rodgers injury wasn't the only major one in Green Bay.  They have been dealing with offensive line injuries all season.  So the bye actually helps that aspect as well as the Packers are expected to expected to have their starting five intact for the first time all season.  The Packers plan to use a run-first game plan behind this O-Line and the emergence of rookie first-round pick Aaron Jones, who has rushed for 346 yards on 62 attempts while averaging 5.6 yards per carry.  The linemen couldn't be more excited.

“I think we have a lot of confidence in what we bring to the table. It’s a matter of one, being healthy enough to do it, and two, going out there and showing it,” David Bakhtiari said as the Packers returned to work earlier this week. “The nice thing (is), we’re going to have some fun.

“Not having ‘12’ is terrible. But, I mean, everybody knows that you’re not going to be throwing as much. So it’s kind of a chance for us to pin our ears back and attack. At the end of the day, you have ‘12’ out there, you’re going to want to put the ball in the hands of the best player in the league as much as you can. Here, (the thought is), ‘Take a little bit off of Brett.’ That’d be nice.”

McCarthy acknowledged that having the line together for the first time; they've started seven different variations in seven games; will factor into his game plan.  “It’ll be great to have those five guys. We’ve talked about this time and time again that the best offensive lines are the ones that line up and practice and play together week in and week out.”

The Lions actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 16 of their 17 games last season, including playoffs.  They were a fraudulent playoff team, and they are fraudulent again this year.  They are 3-4 and are lucky to have that record.  Reality has set in after a 3-1 start, and they've gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  The Lions rank 22nd in offensive yards per play (4.9) and 22nd in defensive yards per play (5.6), getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play on the season.  That's not the sign of a good team, and it's one of the worst yards per play differentials in the NFL, which is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is.

Finally, Detroit never wins at Lambeau Field.  The Packers are 24-1 straight up in their last 25 home meetings with the Lions.  The Lions are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games as a road favorite, and they shouldn't be favored here.  Detroit is 0-7 ATS after gaining 300 passing yards or more last game over the past three seasons.  The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Matthew Stafford is now 6-50 in his career against teams with a winning record, going 1-4 thus far against such teams in 2017.  Bet the Packers Monday.

20* Redskins/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle -7

Injuries have absolutely derailed the Washington Redskins' season.  And after back-to-back blowout losses to Philadelphia (24-34) and Dallas (19-33), the future looks very gloomy in Washington.  I just don't see how this team is going to field a competent team in the immediate future.  Bare with me as I list off all of their injuries.

Jay Gruden named 13 injured players during his news conference Monday, most of whom would be considered questionable this week, and 9 of which are starters.  A new one added to list Monday was receiver Jamison Crowder, who injured his hamstring and suffered a lower leg contusion.  There's a chance he won't play against Seattle, leaving Washington possibly without its mores productive receiver.

Kirk Cousins' favorite TE  Jordan Reed will likely be out Sunday against Seattle, while defensive lineman Matt Ionnidis will undergo surgery Wednesday to repair a broken bone in his hand.  They are already missing first-round pick Jonathan Allen with a Lisfranc injury.  He and Ioanidis provided a strong interior pass rush in the first five games.  They also played starting inside linebacker Mason Foster on injured reserve Saturday.

But the cluster injuries on the offensive line are the biggest concern.  Right tackle Morgan Moses is dealing with two sprained ankles, but he didn't even show up on the injury report.  And Monday's news of the 13 players came after three Redskins starting offensive linemen were inactive for Sunday's loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

"We only have seven guys that we can put inactive. That's the major issue that we have right now," Gruden said. "We have to try to get six of those guys up -- at least -- somehow."

The situation is bad enough that Gruden said if the Redskins had to practice Tuesday, he wasn't sure who would line up at left tackler.  Starter Trend Williams missed last week and may try to practice.  His backup, Ty Nsekhe, also might try to practice but he's been out since Week 2 with a core muscle injury.  And Ksekhe's backup, T.J. Clemmings, sprained an ankle Sunday and had to leave the game in the fourth quarter.

Rookie Tyler Catalina finished Sunday's game at left tackle after starting at right guard before.  Standout guard Brandon Scherff is still recovering from a sprained MCL, so Gruden needs Catalina at that position.  Gruden is hoping that Scherff can increase his activity this week.

The Redskins have only four healthy defensive linemen, so they will have to add another for at least this week.  Two of their four safeties are injured in rookie starter Montae Nickolson (shoulder) and backup Stefan McClure (hamstring).  Starting corner Bashaud Breeland (knee/groin), who was inactive against the Cowboys, is now listed as day-to-day.

"You try to prepare for that with your depth in training camp and obviously your practice squad guys, you try to get them ready," Gruden said. "But, when you get overwhelmed on the offensive line and now at tight end and safety ... it becomes a challenge. But we're going to keep fighting on and put some guys out there and get them ready to play. That's all we can do."

The Seahawks should be able to take advantage of all these injuries and really put a beat down on the Redskins.  This is a Seattle team that is rolling right now, having won four straight coming in while scoring an average of 31.8 points per game.  Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind.  He threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns against the Texans last week. And now the Seahawks traded for LT Duane Brown, one of the top tackles in the league, to help shore up their offensive line.

The Seahawks still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, going 11-1 straight up in their last 12 home games.  Seattle is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games off a a game where 60 or more points total were scored.  Washington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games off two straight losses to division rivals.  The Seahawks are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams -3

The Los Angeles Rams are one of the best teams in the NFL this season, yet nobody wants to give them the respect they deserve.  That's why they are consistently undervalued week after week, and I think they continue to be this week as only 3-point road favorites over the hapless New York Giants.

The Rams are not only winning, they are dominating the opposition.  Sean McVay has done wonders with the offense as the Rams rank 2nd in the NFL in scoring offense at 30.3 yards per game.  Wade Phillips has the defense playing well as they rank 11th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game.  And they are only going to continue to get better on that side of the ball.

The offense has the best weapons it has had in recent memory with Todd Gurley, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Tavon Austin.  That's a big reason Jared Goff has taken the next step this season, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 1,719 yards with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 7.7 per attempt.  And the Rams have arguably the best set of kickers in the league with punter Johnny Hekker (47.9 AVG) and PK Greg Zuerlein (21 for 22 FGs), which is an underrated aspect of this team.

The Rams are right in the thick of the NFC West race with the Seattle Seahawks and have a lot to play for coming out of their bye week.  And they lost to the Seahawks (5-2) at home on October 8th, so they do not have the tiebreaker right now.  It makes every game more important for them moving forward to get a lead on Seattle.  And that 16-10 loss to the Seahawks was about as misleading as it gets.

 They outgained Seattle by 134 yards in that game and were clearly the better team, but red zone struggles doomed them.  They really should be 6-1 right now.  They have since responded with 27-17 and 33-0 road beat downs of Jacksonville and Arizona, respectively.  The Rams have actually been at their best on the road, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 12.5 points per game.  They also won in Dallas 35-30 as 5-point underdogs.

While the Rams have been fortunate to get to their bye week without any real significant injuries, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the New York Giants.  They are without three of their top four receivers in Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Harris.  They have cluster injuries along the offensive line to Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg, and also key injuries along the defensive line and at linebacker.  

Not to mention, they have suspended top cornerback Janoris Jenkins for the second time in three weeks after he failed to return form the bye week on time.  This team is an absolute mess right now, and at 1-6 on the season, having nothing but pride to play for moving forward.  It's going to be tough for them to find motivation week in and week out to beat teams, and they'll be more concerned with just collecting a paycheck at this point.

The Giants rank 27th in the league in total offense at 296.4 yards per game, and 27th in total defense at 379.4 yards per game allowed.  They are getting outgained by a ridiculous 83.0 yards per game, which is the second-worst yardage differential in the NFL.  In their two games since losing that trio of receivers to injury in a 22-27 loss to the Chargers, they were outgained by 146 yards by the Broncos and by 248 yards by the Seahawks.  That is a sign of things to come for this undermanned, unmotivated squad.

The Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.  The Giants are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a bye week.  And my favorite trend backing the Rams is that teams coming back from London who had a bye the next week are a perfect 9-0-1 ATS since 2015 coming out of the bye.  We have two teams headed in opposite directions here, and it will show up on the scoreboard this weekend.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Bills/Jets AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +3.5

The New York Jets will be out for revenge from their 21-12 road loss to Buffalo in Week 1.  The Jets have improved by leaps and bounds since the opening couple weeks of the season.  They have been an undervalued commodity, going 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They remain undervalued as 3.5-point home dogs to the Bills Thursday.

The Jets won three games in a row over Miami, Jacksonville and Cleveland to start the streak.  Then they lost 17-24 as 9-point home dogs to the Patriots in a controversial game where they had a TD overturned and called a touchback on a a fumble through the end zone.  Then they blew a 28-14 lead and lost 31-28 to the Dolphins as 3-point road dogs.  And last week they gave the Falcons all they could handle, losing 20-25 as 6.5-point home dogs.

The Bills come in overvalued due to their 5-2 record this season.  But it may be about as fraudulent of a 5-2 start as you'll find.  The Bills have actually been outgained in six of their seven games this season.  They are getting outgained by an average of 43.6 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play on the season.  

Buffalo has been winning with smoke an mirrors thanks to having the No. 1 turnover differential in the NFL at +14.  They have only committed 3 turnovers while forcing 17.  That type of ratio is not going to last, and they'll regress to the mean in the turnover department moving forward.

The Jets are only getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play, which is the sign of an average team.  They are gaining 5.5 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.6 yards per play on defense.  Buffalo averages 5.0 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.5 per play on defense to compare.  And yards per play are more indicative of how good a team is.

Josh McCown has revived his career in New York, completing a sweet 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,840 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging 7.2 per attempt.  He should find plenty of success against a banged-up, poor Buffalo secondary that has allowed three straight 300-yard passers and an average of 341.3 yards per game during this stretch.  It has come against the likes of Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston and Derek Carr.

LeSean McCoy got 33 touches against Oakland last week and won't have much left in the tank working on a short week here with this Thursday night game.  McCoy has 38 receptions this season, 18 more than second-place Charles Clay, who is out with an injury.  That leaves Jordan Matthews as the next-best receiver for this team with 15 receptions.  McCoy is clearly getting run into the ground.

The Jets are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss.  Buffalo is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games.  The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games overall.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Jets Thursday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City -7

The Kansas City Chiefs are in a great spot here.  They are coming off two straight losses and will be fired up to get back in the win column at home.  And they are coming off a Thursday game against the Raiders, giving them extra rest time and preparation to get ready for the Denver Broncos.  That mini-bye week has been pure gold in the NFL.  Teams coming off a Thursday game have gone 9-3 ATS this season.

While the Chiefs had a chance to beat both the Steelers and Raiders in their last two games, the Broncos haven't even come close to winning their last two.  They lost 10-23 at home to the Giants despite being 13.5-point favorites, and then proceeded to get shut out 21-0 on the road against the Chargers despite being favored in that game as well.

The Broncos have been hit hard by injuries, which is a big reason for their struggles.  Losing Emmanuel Sanders is a bigger loss than what is getting factored into these spreads.  He is the second-favorite target of Trevor Siemian and now this is a vanilla offense without him as opposing teams can just take away Demaryius Thomas, and the Broncos don't have anyone else that can beat them.

Denver is was also missing tackle Menelik Watson and his backup Donald Stephenson last week, which explains all the struggles that Siemian was having.  Both are questionable to return this week.  And Siemian was dealing with a shoulder injury of his own and didn't look good at all against the Chargers.  He got rocked time after time, and I just can't see how he isn't beat up right now.  I think he is hiding injuries and playing through them.

The Broncos have benefited from a home-heavy schedule in the early going, playing four home games compared to two road games.  And boy were their two road games awful.  They lost 16-26 to the Bills and 21-0 to the Chargers, averaging just 8.0 points and giving up 23.5 points per game, losing both by double-digits.  And now this is a big step up in class against a Chiefs offense that is doing whatever it wants to.

The Chiefs are averaging 29.6 points per game (1st), 5.2 yards per carry (1st), 8.7 yards per pass attempt (1st) and 6.5 yards per play (1st).  As you can see, they rank 1st in the NFL in all four categories.  Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt are having MVP-caliber seasons.  And while the Chiefs' numbers defensively are down this year, it's due to playing the toughest schedule of opposing offenses in the league.  I would argue that this Denver offense is the weakest they have faced yet, and it's not really even close considering the current state of the Broncos' offense with all of the injuries.

The Chiefs have owned the Broncos in their last three meetings.  They won 29-13 in their final meeting of 2015 on the road, 30-27 on th road last year, and 33-10 at home last year.  They have outscored the Broncos a combined 92-50 in those three games despite playing two on the road, or by an average of 14 points per game.  They have proven by averaging 30.7 points per game that they have no trouble moving the ball and putting up points on this supposedly vaunted Denver defense.

Andy Reid has always been a great coach to back with extra prep time as he has the best record of any NFL head coach off a bye.  Kansas City is 6-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. AFC West opponents.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5

The season is basically on the line for the Tampa Bay Bucs this week.  At 2-4, and following three straight losses, they cannot afford a loss this week at home to the Carolina Panthers.  I think we're getting the Bucs at a discount here.

After all, the Bucs have lost their last three games all by 5 points or less, so they have been unlucky in close games.  And they've been killed by injuries up to this point, but now they are as healthy as they've been since their 29-7 win over the Bears in Week 2.  Their defensive numbers haven't been pretty, but that's almost exclusively due to the injuries, not the lack of talent.

Linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are back healthy.  Cornerback Brent Grimes and safety TJ Ward have each missed time and are healthy now.  Doug Martin is back from his 3-game suspension.  And Jameis Winston showed that his shoulder injury is an afterthought after throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills last week.

The Carolina Panthers' 4-1 start was a bit fraudulent as three of their wins were 50/50 games decided by 6 points or less.  Then injuries really hit this team the last few weeks as they lost at home to the Eagles, and were embarrassed 17-3 at Chicago last week.  They managed just 3 points against the Bears despite having the ball for nearly 40 minutes in that game.

The offense has been hampered by injuries on the offensive line and to Greg Olsen.  The defense was without its best player in Luke Kuechly last week, and it's still uncertain whether he will return from a concussion this week.  They could be extra cautious with him after he missed significant time with a concussion last year.  Safety Kurt Coleman is also questionable.

The weakness of the Panthers' defense is the secondary as they allow 67% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  Well, the Bucs rank 1st in the NFL in passing offense at 312 yards per game.  They are loaded with weapons in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate and OJ Howard, a rookie out of Alabama who had two touchdown receptions last week and will play a bigger role moving forward.

Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC South opponents.  The favorite is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco 49ers +13

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' situation with the San Francisco 49ers catching 13 points on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles.  The 49ers are coming off a 40-10 blowout home loss to the Cowboys, while the Eagles are coming off a 34-24 double-digit home win over the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football.

The majority of bettors were on the Eagles in that game and will continue to back them after they looked so good.  But a lot went wrong for the Redskins as they had cluster injuries along the offensive line throughout the game.  And after playing on Monday, that makes this a short week for the Eagles, which is a disadvantage for them.  

It's also a huge letdown spot for the Eagles off that big win over a division rival, and with plenty of separation between themselves and the second-place Cowboys (3-3) with a 2.5-game lead in the NFC East.  Don't be surprised if they relax this week with the 0-7 49ers coming to town.

The Eagles lost two standouts to injury in that Redskins game as well.  Left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks suffered season-ending injuries in the win.  That thrusts backup tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai and linebacker Najee Goode into big roles for the first-place Eagles.  Both have been given a shot in the past, and they have mostly been unproductive.

It was an awful spot for the 49ers last week.  They were deflated following an NFL-record five straight losses by 3 points or less and by a combined 11 points.  And they were tired off a three-game road trip that featured two overtime games.  They were playing a fresh and motivated Dallas Cowboys team that was coming off a bye and two consecutive losses.  It's easy to see how they got blown out.

Now the 49ers should have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the team with the best record in the NFL right now in the Eagles.  They will look at this as an opportunity to shock the world and pull off the upset.  And now that rookie QB CJ Beathard has six quarters of NFL action under his belt, he should only continue to get better as the season progresses.

Kyle Shanahan will come up with a game plan that will allow Beathard to be successful this week.  It will revolve around exploiting an Eagles secondary that has been underwhelming this season.  The Eagles rank 29th against the pass, allowing 272.9 passing yards per game on the season.  Because the Eagles are so poor against the pass, the back door is going to be wide open even if the 49ers do find themselves down by two touchdowns or more at some point in this game.

Plays on underdogs 10.5 or more points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Sunday games following a Monday night game.  Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Bengals OVER 41

This is my favorite total in the NFL this week.  I expect the Cincinnati Bengals to hang a big number on this terrible Indianapolis Colts defense in what will be their best offensive performance of the season.  I also expect the Colts to do their part to help contribute to the OVER of what is a very low total of only 41 points.

The Colts rank dead last in scoring defense, giving up 31.7 points per game.  They are 29th against the pass at 300.7 yards per game allowed.  They are 29th in total defense giving up 425.4 yards per game.  They are also 29th on a yards per play (6.4) basis.

Making matters worse for this Colts defense is the fact that they lost three starters to injury in a loss to the Jaguars last week.  That explains why they allowed 27 points and 518 total yards, including 330 passing to Blake Bortles of all quarterbacks.  LB John Simon, S Malik Hooker and CB Rashaan Melvin are all expected to miss this game for the Colts.  LB Anthony Walker is also questionable with a hamstring injury.

Jacoby Brissett has been better than expected this year.  He has handled himself well and has kept his team in games.  The Colts are only averaging 17 points per game, but that's probably all they need here Sunday to help us get the OVER, which I think they can do.  Cincinnati has a good defense, but its numbers are misleading thus far due to playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Ravens, Texans, Browns, Bills, Steelers and Packers.  They gave up 420 yards and 29 points to the Steelers last week.

The OVER is 3-0 in Indianapolis' three road games this season.  The Colts and their opponents are combining to average 59.0 points per game on the road this season.  They are giving up a stunning 42.7 points per game away from home, which is a number that is actually higher than this 41-point total alone.

Indianapolis is 8-0 OVER in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game.  The Colts are 7-0 OVER in road games against conference opponents over the last two years.  The OVER is 9-1 in all Colts road games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Cincinnati.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Oakland Raiders +3

The Oakland Raiders are coming off a season-saving 31-30 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs last Thursday.  They thought they won the game a couple times, but had plays called back due to either reviews or penalties. But they showed tremendous composure, and Derek Carr hit the game-winner on the final play to Michael Crabtree.  Now the Raiders have an extra pep in their step heading into this road trip to Buffalo.

And the Raiders are in a situation that I love to back here.  They are coming off a Thursday game, which gives them a mini-bye week and an edge over the Bills in rest and preparation.  Teams coming off Thursday games are a very profitable 9-3 (75%) ATS in 12 games this season.  I really believe the wrong team is favored here.

Carr showed that he is fully recovered from a back injury that forced him to miss all or parts of two games, which were two of the four losses the Raiders have suffered this season.  Carr lit up a good Chiefs defense for 417 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception.  Amari Cooper showed that he remains an elite receiver after a slow start to the season, catching 11 balls for 210 yards and two scores.

There's no question the Raiders have the better offense in this game.  The Bills have been winning with smoke and mirrors this season and are nowhere near as good as their 4-2 record would indicate.  Their offense has put up just 19.8 points, 299 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Tyrod Taylor is missing his favorite target in Charles Clay, and this is mostly a one-dimension running offense.

That actually makes this a good matchup for the Raiders defensively.  Their weakness has been against the pass, but they have held their own against the run.  They are giving up just 3.9 yards per carry against teams and average 4.3 yards per carry.  And they signed NaVorro Bowman away from the 49ers, and he's an elite run defender who made his first start with the team last week.  He brings an added element of toughness and leadership in the middle of their defense.

The Bills got off to a great start defensively this season, but there have been plenty of holes in their D the last two weeks.  They gave up 388 total yards to the Bengals and 447 to the Bucs.  Their weakness has been against the pass as they allowed 323 passing yards to Andy Dalton and the Bengals and 378 to Jameis Winston and the Bucs.  That's not good news for them considering Carr, Cooper and Crabtree are heating up.  Not to mention TE Jared Cook came alive with 107 receiving yards last week.

A big reason for this drop-off in production against the pass has been the injuries in the secondary for the Bills.  Buffalo could be without two starters for Sunday's game.  Safety Jordan Poyer (knee) and cornerback E.J. Gaines (hamstring) are both considered day-to-day, but they did not practice on Wednesday.  Buffalo has allowed 350 passing yards per game since Week 5, the most in the NFL.

The Raiders have owned the Bills, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings, 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings, and 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Buffalo.  Oakland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in two of its previous three games coming in.  Buffalo is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  Take the Raiders Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -4

This is definitely the type of 'buy low sell high' situation that I love in the NFL.  The Atlanta Falcons have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  Meanwhile, the New York Jets have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall, so they are starting to actually attract attention from the betting public.

We'll buy low on the Falcons knowing that this is the type of 'circle the wagons' game that they'll get up for.  They still have a great shot to win their division, and they are better than their 3-3 record would suggest.  Their offense isn't broken contrary to popular belief, and their defense is better than it gets credit for.

In fact, the Falcons rank 2nd in the NFL in offensive yards per play (6.2), which is the most important stat when determining how good an offense is.  And the defense ranks 12th in the NFL giving up 5.1 yards per play, so the Falcons are outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play.  That's the sign of an elite team, not a mediocre 3-3 one.

While the Falcons are outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game, the Jets are actually getting outgained by 46 yards per game.  The Jets have done a good job of covering some inflated numbers in the early going, but now that the numbers are back to where they should be, this team will be fade material starting this week.

Let's just compare some previous Jets' lines to see the type of line value we are getting here.  The Jets were 7-point road dogs to Buffalo, 14-point road dogs to the Raiders, 5.5-point home dogs to the Dolphins, 4-point home dogs to the Jags, and 9-point home dogs to the Patriots.  

Now they are only 4-point home dogs to the Falcons, and I still believe the Falcons are a Top 5 team in the NFL, and potentially top 2.  It will be the second-toughest opponent the Jets have faced all season, just behind the Patriots, who they lost to by a touchdown at home.

The Jets are in a bad state of mind right now.  They came so close to beating the Patriots a couple weeks ago, falling just a touchdown short.  Then they blew a 28-14 fourth quarter lead against the Dolphins last week, losing 28-31.  They are feeling deflated right now and won't be able to get back up off the mat in time to face this hungry Falcons outfit.

Atlanta is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games after a road blowout loss by 14 points or more.  The Falcons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Falcons are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 8.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Dolphins/Ravens NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins have done a great job of getting to 4-2 this season despite the ineptitude of Jay Cutler.  But because the Dolphins gave Cutler all they money, they figured they had to stick with him.  A blessing in disguise happened last week.

Cutler was knocked out of the game against the Jets with a rib injury.  Matt Moore, who should have been starting for this team all along, promptly led the Dolphins back from a 28-14 deficit in the fourth quarter to win 31-28.  Moore completed 13 of 21 passes for 188 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.

Now Moore will get the start this Thursday against the Ravens, and I obviously believe it's an upgrade from Cutler.  This offense just has too many weapons to be held back for much longer, and I've have to say scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter last week against a good Jets defense will be a sign of things to come for this team with Moore at the helm.

But the biggest reason the Dolphins are 4-2 right now is because they have one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL.  They are allowing just 18.7 points, 308 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that normally average 21.9 points, 341 yards per game and 5.8 per play.

The Ravens are a mess and should not be favored in this game.  They have so many injuries throughout the lineup that I'm not going to even take the time to mention them all.  Let's just say this, their have been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the NFL.

The Ravens have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games.  They lost 44-7 to Jacksonville in London, 9-26 to Pittsburgh at home, 24-27 to Chicago at home and 16-24 to Minnesota on the road.  Their only win came against EJ Manuel and the Raiders.  And their last two games against Chicago and Minnesota were misleading.  They got two special teams touchdowns against the Bears and still lost, and they scored a meaningless TD on the final play of the game to turn a 15-point loss into an 8-point loss at Minnesota.

The Ravens still have a respectable defense that is giving up 21.1 points and 335 yards per game against teams that average 19.8 points and 324 yards per game.  But their offense is atrocious, averaging just 18.6 points, 278 yards per game and 4.5 per play.  And that point total would be a lot less if not for all of their defensive and special teams TDs this year.  Joe Flacco is broken, and is missing a handful of weapons due to injury.  The offensive line has been a disaster since losing Marshall Yanda as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game are 37-16 (69.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams (MIAMI) - off one or more straight overs, poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game are 66-27 (71%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Baltimore is 1-8 ATS after going over the total in its previous game over the last two seasons.  The Ravens are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Ravens need the game more, but they aren't equipped to get a win given their injury situation.  The Dolphins are far and away the better team right now.  Bet the Dolphins Thursday.

20* Redskins/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4.5

I tried to look for reasons to back the Redskins in this game.  I usually like backing teams playing with division revenge; a team that lost their first meeting of the season with a division opponent.  But that's the only reason I can come up with for the Redskins.  Every other factor points to the Eagles Monday night.

And I think what trumps the division revenge here is that fact that the Eagles want the game just as badly due to their struggles against the Redskins over the last few seasons.  The Eagles had lost five straight to the Redskins before winning 30-17 in Washington in Week 1 this week.  And what better way for them to get their revenge than by sweeping Washington here and burying them in the division standings.

I just think that the general public doesn't want to believe that the Eagles are the best team in the NFL.  But here we are and the Eagles have the best record in the league at 5-1.  And absolutely nothing has been fluky about their record.  They have handled their business and their only loss came to arguably the next-best team in the Kansas City Chiefs 27-20 on the road.

Carson Wentz has this offense playing at a high level, averaging 27.5 points per game and 5.9 yards per play. The defense has been very good as well in limiting opponents to 20.3 points per game.  They have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, giving up only 66 rushing yards per game while applying consistent pressure to opposing quarterbacks.

While the Eagles are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL in the injury department, the same cannot be said for the Redskins.  The Eagles are expected to get tackle Lane Johnson back from a one-game absence because they played last Thursday and have had extra time to get ready for the Redskins.  And Wentz's success has almost exclusively been tied to whether or not Johnson is in the lineup over the past few seasons.  RB Wendell Smallwood is also back in the lineup this week and adds a nice dimension to the offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

Wentz should have his way with a banged-up Washington defense that allowed 24 points to CJ Beathard and the 49ers last week.  The Redskins were fortunate to escape with a 26-24 victory as 11-point favorites.  Now the Redskins are going to be without CB Josh Norman.  Their second-best CB Bashaud Breeland is questionable with a knee injury.  Starting S Deshazor Everett is also questionable, as is his backup Stefan McClure.  And DE Jonathan Allen has been placed on injured reserve.  So they could be without three starters in the secondary, and Allen's loss cannot be overstated.

On the Monday Night stage, the Eagles will not have a letdown here.  Their fans are going wild about this team and we won't hear the boo birds that we used to back when this was a mediocre team.  This is a real home-field advantage now with the way this team is playing.  The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four Monday games.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC opponents.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +6

This inflated line is a clear overreaction from the Steelers' 19-13 win in Kansas City last week to hand the Chiefs their first loss.  I was on the Steelers in that game because I thought the Chiefs were being overvalued, but now this is a role reversal and the Steelers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  It's a letdown spot for them off such a big win.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals have been waiting in the wings on their bye week getting ready to beat their most hated rivals in the Steelers.  And they are off two consecutive wins that has gotten them back into the playoff picture.  They are looking at this as their biggest game of the season considering the Steelers lead the AFC North at 4-2, and a loss here would almost surely ruin the Bengals' chances of making the playoffs.  So we're going to get a huge effort from Cincinnati here.

I've been on the Bengals in their last two games and I'll ride them for a third straight for many of the same reasons.  Andy Dalton has looked like a completely different quarterback with Bill Lazor calling the plays the last three games.   Dalton has completed 68-of-93 (73.1%) passes for 826 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.  One of those picks was a drop by AJ Green.

If you dig deep into the Bengals' numbers, it's easy to see that they are much better team than their 2-3 record would indicate.  They lost on the road to the Packers in overtime, beat the Browns 31-7 on the road while outgaining them by 135 yards, then beat the Bills 20-16 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained Buffalo by 167 yards.

Since getting their defensive leader Vontaze Burfict back from a 3-game suspension in Week 4, the defense has really showed what it is capable of.  The Bengals allowed just 215 total yards to the Browns and 221 to the Bengals in their two games with Burfict on the field.  The Bengals are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 262.8 yards per game and 4.4 per play this season.  They are averaging 5.3 per play on offense, outgaining teams by 0.9 yards per play, which is the sign of an elite team.

The Steelers have also been improved defensively this season, and it's pretty much a wash there with Cincinnati, though the Bengals do have the better stats.  But this Pittsburgh offense is broken and cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number.  The Steelers are averaging just 19.7 points per game this season.  They are becoming too predictable with Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Browns getting what seems like 90% of the touches.

Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Broncos/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles PK

The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the most hard-luck teams in the NFL over the last few years.  They have found ways to lose close game after close game.  They opened this season 0-4 while losing three of their first four games by 3 points or less.  To say they were due for some good luck in close games would be a massive understatement.

Lo and behold, the Chargers have won back-to-back close games with a 5-point road win over the Giants and a 1-point road win over the Raiders the past two weeks.  Now the Chargers are starting to feel good about themselves and gaining confidence.  And with the Chiefs losing two in a row, they can get right back in the thick of things within the division with another win here over the Broncos.

Now they'll be motivated for revenge against their division rivals.  The Chargers lost 21-24 in Denver in their opener after missing a game-tying field goal that would have forced overtime.  They went on to miss another field goal the next week against the Dolphins that would have won it.  That's how close this team is to being 4-2.

And while the Chargers are a team on the rise, the Broncos are going the other direction.  They just suffered an inexplicable 23-10 home loss to the Giants as 13.5-point favorites on Sunday Night Football last week.  And they suffered several key injuries during that game that contributed to the loss, and those injuries continue to hamper them this week.

Trevor Siemian injured his shoulder and had to be replaced in the game.  Siemian is expected to play this week, but we'll gladly fade any quarterback with a shoulder injury.  And he lost one of his favorite targets in Emmanuel Sanders to an ankle injury.  Sanders is out this week, and his other favorite target Demaryius Thomas is hampered with a calf injury.  Not to mention, the offensive line will be without tackle Menelik Watson, and his backup Donald Stephenson is also out.

San Diego has one of the more underrated defenses in the NFL.  Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa are animals.  The Chargers should be able to get after Siemian and take advantage of this banged up Broncos offensive line.  This is a Chargers defense that has allowed just 21.8 points and 338 yards per game this season.  They have allowed only 186 passing yards per game.  They are going to be able to stack eight in the box to stop the run because a banged-up Siemian and his limited receiving options aren't going to be able to do much through the air.  Stud corner Casey Hayward will shut down Demaryius Thomas.

Philip Rivers has some of the best weapons he has had in his career.  The Chargers have finally given Hunter Henry more playing time in favor of Antonio Gates.  Keenan Allen is a beast at receiver, and rookie first-round pick Mike Williams recently returned from injury and will only get better.  Melvin Gordon has shown that he is one of the best backs in the NFL.

The Broncos have benefited from an easy schedule.  They have played four of their first five games at home.  Their only road game resulted in a 16-26 loss to a mediocre at best Buffalo Bills team.  I know the Chargers don't have much of a home-field advantage these days, but the fans should be more welcoming now and appreciate the fact that the Chargers continue to fight and have won two straight coming in.  The home team has won four straight in this series.  Take the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3

The Chicago Bears continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 3-point home dogs to the Carolina Panthers.  All the Bears have done is go 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog.  We'll gladly take the points here in a game the Bears likely win outright over the Carolina Panthers.

The Bears have gone 3-0 ATS as home this season.  They should have beaten the Falcons outright in Week 1 if not for some drops in the closing seconds.  They did beat the Steelers 23-17 as 7-point dogs.  And they only lost 17-20 to the Vikings on a last-second field goal as 3.5-point dogs.

Mitchell Trubisky showed some moxy in going into Baltimore and leading his team to a 27-24 win over the Ravens as 5-point dogs.  And the Ravens even got two special teams touchdowns in that game, which is the only reason it went to overtime.  It helps that Trubisky has a running game to rely on and take the pressure off of him.

Indeed, Chicago ranks No. 1 in the NFC and No. 3 in the NFL with an average of 136.0 rushing yards per game.  Jordan Howard has amassed 495 rushing yards and four touchdowns in his first six games.  Tarik Cohen has been a revelation in the backfield with his running and pass-catching abilities.  And Trubisky's mobility has been a nice added dimension.

The Bears have the worst turnover differential (-8) in the NFL.  That was a big reason for their early struggles, but most of those mistakes can be attributed to Mike Glennon.  If they can take care of the football, their defense is good enough to keep them in games.  In fact, it has been one of the most underrated units in the NFL.

The Bears allowed just 303 yards per game and 5.1 per play against opponents that average 346 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They are holding foes to 43 yards and 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  That is the sign of an elite defense.

The Panthers have also been great defensively this season, but that was largely due to having one of the best defenders in the NFL in Luke Kuechly back and healthy.  And Kuechly suffered another concussion last week against the Eagles.  After he went out, the Panthers fell apart, losing 23-28 at home.  

Kuechly has been ruled out for this game.  The Panthers had a good run defense with him, but without the perennial leading tackler in the NFL they won't be nearly as effective stopping the run against the Bears this week.  He is worth more to the spread than the oddsmakers have adjusted for in this matchup.

The Panthers have been well below-average this season on offense.  They are only averaging 21.3 points, 323 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  That's really bad when you consider they have faced one of the easiest slates of opposing defenses who give up 22.3 points, 364 yards per game and 5.8 per play on average.  Cam Newton missed Greg Olsen, and he could also be without his top receiver in Kelvin Benjamin this week, who is questionable with a knee injury.

Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a home dog of 7 points or less.  The Bears are 7-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35.5 to 42 over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games overall.  The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Chicago is flying under the radar right now and we'll continue cashing in on them while that's the case.  Roll with the Bears Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 47

There are several factors that have me backing the UNDER in this game Thursday night between the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders.  Not the least of which is the fact that this is a division rivalry, and these teams are extremely familiar with one another.

And this head-to-head series has been very low-scoring in recent years.  Indeed, the Raiders and Chiefs have combined for 44 or fewer points in five of their six meetings over the past three seasons.  They combined for 34 and 36 points in their two meetings last year.  And they have averaged 42.0 combined points in their last six meetings and just 36.7 points in their last three.

The Raiders are struggling offensively this season.  They have scored just 10, 10, 17 and 16 points in their last four games overall.  They have combined for 47 or fewer points in five of their six games this season with their opponents as well.  The defense is holding its own, giving up 21 points per game this year.

I think this total has been inflated because of all the early high-scoring games the Chiefs played in.  But then they had a ton of injuries heading into the Steelers game last week, especially to their pass-catchers on offense.  And they proceeded to lose 13-19 for 32 combined points.  Those injuries aren't going to be healed just four days later in this Thursday night game.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 24-6 in Chiefs last 30 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Raiders last five vs. AFC West opponents.  The UNDER is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings in this series.  Andy Reid is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Colts/Titans NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNDER 48.5

This is a key AFC South game for both the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.  They are both 2-3 right now, and the winner will be tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans for first place in the AFC South.  So there will be an extra level of intensity to this contest.

I think that favors the UNDER, along with many other factors.  These teams are obviously extremely familiar with one another since it's a division game.  And I know that previous meetings have tended to be higher scoring, but those were almost exclusively with Andrew Luck in recent years.  Luck is no longer the quarterback due to injury.

Now it's Jacoby Brissett and a sub-par Colts offense that has been dreadful on the road this season.  The Colts are scoring just 13.5 points per game, averaging 231 yards per game and 4.7 per play on the road this season.  I don't expect them to have much success moving the football and scoring points in this game either.

That's because the Colts will be up against a Titans defense that came back strong last week to give up just 16 points and 178 total yards to the Miami Dolphins.  Usually that would have been good enough to win, but the offense was held to just 10 points and 188 total yards.  That was largely due to having Matt Cassell at quarterback.

Now Marcus Mariota is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury.  I think that fact has this total inflated.  Mariota is probably coming back too early because the Titans are coming off two consecutive losses and need a win.  And there's zero chance this will be the same free-wheeling Mariota we've become accustomed to.

Instead, Mariota will be severely limited by that hamstring.  His feet are his biggest weapon, and without them this offense won't hum like it normally would.  Mariota won't be able to make plays outside the pocket like he usually does, and he certainly won't be running for many first downs to bail out the offense when plays break down.

I expect the Titans to try and get back to their bread and butter offensively, which is running the football with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.  That's because they've been limited to just 77.5 rushing yards per game in their last two contests, which they have lost.  Their two best running totals this season were two games in which they won.  They know their best formula for success is to run the ball, and that will be the case here Monday.  That will also keep the clock moving.

The Colts found a nice running game last week with Marlon Mack against the San Francisco 49ers.  They rushed for 159 yards on 35 attempts, with Mack accounting for 91 of those yards.  I think they'll be looking to run the football as well to try and limit Tennessee's possessions, which is their best plan of attack.  They can't afford to fall behind big early because they don't have the firepower to come back, as we've seen in their two blowout road losses.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents are 71-33 (68.3%) over the last 10 seasons.  With the intensity both defenses will be bringing to the table, and with the limitations of Brissett and Mariota, the only way to look is with the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Steelers/Chiefs AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +5

The Kansas City Chiefs are simply overvalued right now due to their 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS start to the season.  They are the only team that's left unbeaten both straight up and against the spread.  With that fact comes expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that the Chiefs simply cannot live up to moving forward.

Now the Chiefs are being asked to lay a whopping 5 points at home against a Steelers team that I'm not so sure isn't still the best team in the AFC.  The Chiefs were lucky to cover against both the Eagles and Redskins in their two home games this season.  They were outgained by the Eagles by 62 yards, and they got a fluke fumble return TD on the last play of the game to cover against the Redskins.

Now this is a very tough spot for the Chiefs.  They have played back-to-back National TV games last Monday against the Redskins and then last week against the Texans.  That game turned into a 42-34 shootout thanks to some injuries on both sides.  That game took a lot out of the Chiefs, and it really showed up in the injury department.

Receiver Chris Conley was lost to a season-ending Achilles injury.  Fellow receiver Albert Wilson suffered a leg injury and is questionable.  Tight end Travis Kelce was knocked out of the Houston game with a concussion and is questionable.  Defensively, both LB Justin Houston and LB Dee Ford, their two best pass rushers, are questionable with calf and hip injuries.

The Steelers are going to be chapping at the bit to get back on the field this week and redeem themselves from their ugly 9-30 home loss to the Jaguars last week.  Big Ten threw five interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns, to give the game away.  It was a clear flat spot for the Steelers off their big 26-9 win in Baltimore the previous week, and with the Chiefs on deck.

Now the Steelers will get back to work this week and come back with a much better performance.  I expect them to give the ball to Le'Veon Bell at least 30 times after he did not get enough touches against the Jaguars due to game flow.  They are much better when he gets the rock.  His two biggest workloads came in identical 26-9 wins over Baltimore and Minnesota.

What has been most impressive about the Steelers is their defense.  They are only allowing 17.8 points per game.  They rank 4th in total defense, giving up just 276 yards per game.  And they are 1st against the pass by a mile, giving up a stunning 140 passing yards per game.  Alex Smith won't keep humming along, especially with all the injuries on offense right now.

The Steelers simply have the Chiefs number.  They have gone 5-1 in the last six meetings over the past six seasons.  They won 18-16 on the road in the playoffs last year, and 43-14 at home earlier in the regular season, outgaining the Chiefs by a combined 241 yards in the process.  The Steelers have clearly figured out Andy Reid's offense, limiting the Chiefs to just 14.5 points per game in the last six meetings.

Pitt is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rushing defense allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards per carry over the last three seasons.  Mike Tomlin is 16-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 46

For two teams that aren't in the same division, the Steelers and Chiefs are certainly getting used to playing each other.  They have played six times in the last six seasons, including in the playoffs last year.  The Steelers ended the Chiefs' season with an 18-16 road victory as 2.5-point favorites.

The majority of these meetings have been very low-scoring.  In fact, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The Steelers and Chiefs have averaged just a combined 35 points per game in those six meetings.  That's 11 points less than this 46-point total, which shows the kind of value we are getting here with the UNDER.

I think this total has been inflated due to the Chiefs having the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. And the fact that they are coming off a shootout win over the Texans last week.  But the Texans lost arguably their two best defenders in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to injuries in the first quarter, which changed the complexion of the game.

The Chiefs came away from that game with some significant injuries of their one, which also makes me like the UNDER this week.  Receiver Chris Conley suffered a season-ending Achilles tear.  Receiver Albert Wilson is questionable with a leg injury.  Alex Smith's favorite target in Travis Kelce is questionable with a concussion that knocked him out of the Texans game.  I like the UNDER either way, but it would just be an added bonus if all three guys were out.

And now the Chiefs are up against a vastly improved Steelers defense, and their offense won't keep humming along this week.  The Steelers are only allowing 17.8 points per game.  They rank 4th in total defense, giving up just 276 yards per game.  And they are 1st against the pass by a mile, giving up a stunning 140 passing yards per game.

The Steelers have held the Chiefs to just 14.5 points per game i their last six meetings, so they clearly have Andy Reid's offense figured out.  And the Steelers haven't lived up to expectations this season offensively.  Big Ten just threw five picks, including two that were returned for touchdowns, to give the game away to Jacksonville last week.

I look for the Steelers to go to a more conservative game plan this week.  They will feed Le'Veon Bell upwards of 30 times in this game to take some pressure off of Big Ten.  That will also keep the clock moving and cut down on the turnovers.  It's a Steelers offense that is only averaging 19.8 points per game this year.  The Chiefs still have a respectable defense themselves, giving up 22.2 points per game this season.

The UNDER is 22-7 in Steelers last 29 road games.  The UNDER is 21-6 in Steelers last 27 games in October.  The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Steelers last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 39-18 in Chiefs last 57 home games.  Kansas City is 7-0 UNDER versus poor rushing defense that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Rams +3

The Los Angeles Rams are a legitimate NFL team this season.  I think they are flying under the radar right now as they could easily be 5-0 rather than 3-2.  They have nice road wins over the Cowboys and 49ers, as well as a blowout home win over the Colts.

The Rams did lose 20-27 at home to the Redskins in Week 2, but the Redskins are clearly better than most thought they would be.  Many are writing off the Rams because of their 16-10 loss to the Seahawks last week, but if they played that game 10 times, the Rams would have won nine of them when you dig deeper into the stats.

The Rams outgained the Seahawks by 134 yards.  They drove the ball inside the Seattle red zone five times, and only scored 3 points on those five trips.  They missed a short field goal, Todd Gurley fumbled through the end zone for a touchback, and Cooper Kupp dropped a would-be game-winning touchdown on the final drive.  The Rams were the better team, which just shows how far they've come.

The Jaguars are in the ultimate letdown spot here.  They are coming off a signature 30-9 road win at Pittsburgh in which they intercepted Big Bet five times, returning two of those for touchdowns.  Blake Bortles only attempted one pass in the second half and finished 8-of-14 passing for 95 yards with an interception in the win.  So it was nothing he did.

This Jaguars offense is too one-dimensional, depending basically solely on Leonard Fourtette to run the ball.  We saw what happened when the Jaguars fell behind in their only home game this season in Week 2 against the Titans.  Bortles had to try to throw them back in it, and he couldn't do it in a 16-37 loss.

Both teams have elite defenses, but the difference in this game is the offenses.  The Rams are far from one-dimensional as Sean McVay has brought his offense to this team, and they have taken off.  The Rams are averaging 30.4 points per game, 382 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They have one of the best offenses in the entire NFL this season.

This line indicates that the line should be about a pick 'em on a neutral field.  And I have no doubt the Rams are the better team and would unload on them as a favorite on a neutral.  Giving the Jaguars 2.5 points for home-field advantage is too much because they have actually been much better on the road than at home in recent years.  And the Jaguars have been terrible as a favorite, but great as a dog.

The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.  Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last six following a straight up win of more than 14 points.  They just can't seem to be able to put together two good games in a row.  And this is a clear 'buy low' on the Rams and 'sell high' on the Jags opportunity.  The Rams are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Plays on underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 38-14 (73.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +10

The Houston Texans are the flavor of the month right now because of Deshaun Watson becoming the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to account for five touchdowns in back-to-back weeks.  And now the Texans are being asked to lay double-digits, something they certainly aren't used to doing at any point in franchise history.

The problem is that the injuries to the Texans defense are getting overlooked.  They lost arguably their two best defenders in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus in the first quarter against the Chiefs last week, and proceeded to give up a whopping 42 points.  Fellow starters Brian Cushing and Kevin Johnson are also out.

The Browns are much better than their 0-5 record would indicate.  They are actually outgaining opponents by 16 yards per game this season.  They are only getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.  The Texans are also getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play this season, so by those numbers alone, these are closer to even teams than this line would suggest.

The problem for the Browns has been turnovers, and mostly from Deshon Kizer.  They have committed a whopping 12 turnovers already and are -6 in turnover margin.  Well, they have decided to move on from Kizer to Kevin Hogan, who has taken much better care of the football and understands the importance of it dating back to his time at Stanford, where he had similar numbers to Andrew Luck.

Last week against the Jets, the Browns lost 14-17 but the stats show they should have won by a big margin.  The Browns outgained the Jets by a whopping 207 yards in that game.  Hogan was on point, completing 16-of-19 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns with one interception after replacing Kizer.  He nearly led them back to a victory from a 17-7 deficit.  I certainly think this team offense is better with Hogan, if for nothing else the fact that he values the football.

The Browns have actually been very good defensively this season.  They are giving up just 305 total yards per game.  They have been very good against the run, allowing just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  That's key here because they're up against a Texans team that likes to run the ball, averaging 31 attempts for 141 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Winless teams who are 0-5 or worse are 50-18 ATS when facing an opponent in non-division road games.  That angle improves to 39-7 ATS when the 0-5 team has a spread winning percentage of 33% or worse.  The Browns get two of their best players back from injury this week in LB Jamie Collins and WR Kenny Britt as well.    I like Cleveland much better in this role where it is getting double-digit points, rather than the role it has been in the last three weeks where it basically had to win outright to cover.  Take the Browns Sunday.

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3.5

I grabbed the New Orleans Saints at -3.5 on Monday not only because I loved them at that price, but also because I figured that the line would move quickly in their favor.  And it has as it's up to -4.5 and -5 as of this writing.  I still like them at anything under a touchdown, but obviously the -3.5 line is a stronger play. It benefits you to get a subscription so you can get in on these lines as soon as I release them, rather than buying the play the day of the game and getting worse lines.

The reason to love the Saints is the spot.  They are coming off their bye week, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for the Lions.  And they needed it after playing their last game in London.  Teams playing in London get to choose whether or not they want the bye the next week, and the Saints chose wisely.

I've used the Saints as a 25* play in each of their last two games, and cashed them both easily.  I felt like they were way undervalued after two brutal games to open the season at Minnesota and at home against New England.  And that proved to be the case as they went into Carolina and won 34-13 as 5-point dogs, and won 20-0 in London over the Dolphins as 4-point favorites, covering the spread by a combined 42 points.

Now the Saints opened as -3 and -3.5 favorites at home against the Lions this week, which continues to show how undervalued they are.  I rank the Saints as a better team than the Lions, and when you factor in home-field advantage and the fact that they are coming off their bye week, this line should have come out at closer to -6.

It's clear that the Saints are improved defensively this season after allowing just 6.5 points and 237 yards per game in their last two contests.  And the team is getting healthy as a whole with very few significant injuries.  The Saints feel like the NFC South is for the taking, and they are playing with a sense of urgency right now knowing that Drew Brees doesn't have too many seasons left, though he continues to play at an extremely high level.

The Lions are complete frauds in my opinion.  They lead the NFL in turnover margin (+8), and they already have 11 takeaways this season.  That's not going to last.  The Saints have done an excellent job of taking care of the football this season, committing zero turnovers in their first four games.  They won't be giving it away to the Lions this week either.

The Lions have now trailed in 20 of their last 22 games dating back to the start of last season, and most of those they actually trailed in the fourth quarter.  The only exception this year was their game against the 0-5 New York Giants.  Matthew Stafford has been working miracles with this team, but now even Stafford is banged up with his status in question for Sunday.

Stafford suffered both ankle and hamstring injuries in a 27-24 home loss to the Panthers last week.  That was another game they trailed 27-10 and was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  And even if Stafford goes, he will be hobbled.  He would also be starting behind a banged-up, terrible offensive line that has allowed a whopping 12 sacks over the last two weeks combined.

On Monday, Stafford told WJR Radio in Detroit that he doesn't know if he'll play due to the the ankle/leg injuries.  And he's not the only injury concern.  Breakout WR Kenny Golladay suffered a hamstring injury and is questionable. DT Haloti Ngata has been placed on injured reserve with an elbow injury suffered last week, and LB Paul Worrilow remains out indefinitely.

And the final handicap in this game is the revenge factor.  The Saints are actually 0-3 against the Lions the last three seasons, including an embarrassing 28-13 home loss to them last year.  The Saints had won their previous four games against the Lions by an average of 21.0 points per game.  I think we see them getting back to that kind of form here and winning in blowout fashion.

Sean Payton is 15-4 ATS in home games vs. mistake-prone teams averaging 60 or more penalty yards per game as the coach of New Orleans.  Detroit is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off a home loss by 3 points or less.  The Lions are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  New Orleans is 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams averaging 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Saints are 6-0 ATS vs. good rushing defenses allowing 90 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three years.

Bets against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983.  The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* Eagles/Panthers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46.5

This is a huge game between a pair of 4-1 teams in the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers that could ultimately have home-field advantage implications in the playoffs down the road.  I think this will be a very intense game between two of the best teams in the NFC, and I expect the defenses will have the edge in this one.

I also believe this total has been inflated due to the fact that the Panthers have gone over the total in three straight now.  But that was largely due to playing three poor defenses in the Saints, Patriots and Lions, but now they're up against a vastly underrated Eagles defense.  And the Panthers simply aren't a very good offensive team.

The Panthers only average 21.0 points, 327 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that allow 368 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  The injuries for the Panthers on offense are going to hold them back.  They are without Cam Newton's favorite weapon in Greg Olsen, and C Ryan Kalil, WR Devin Funchess and RB Jonathan Stewart are all questionable for this game.

The biggest reason for Carolina's turnaround this season has been its elite defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 18.8 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  They have shown tremendous improvement against the pass, giving up just 194 passing yards per game and 5.7 yards per attempt against teams that average 237 yards per game and 6.7 per attempt.

While Carson Wentz has turned the corner and is playing much better this season, a big reason for the Eagles' turnaround has been a defense that only gives up 19.8 points per game.  And now they get their best defensive player in DT Fletcher Cox back from injury this week.  The run defense has been particularly good, allowing just 63 rushing yards per game.  That will be key against a Panthers team that loves to run the football, averaging 29 rushing attempts per game compared to 30 pass attempts, a rare 50/50 split in today's NFL.

Wentz will face his stiffest test yet here against this Panthers defense.  The Eagles have been humming along offensively, but they lost their best linemen in RT Lane Johnson due to injury, and Wentz was not nearly as good without him last year.  In fact, since the start of the 2016 season, the Eagles are 9-2 when Johnson plays, and 2-8 when he does not.  Wentz completes 64.8% of his passes, averaging 7 YPA and a 10:2 TD/INT ratio with him, and 61.2%, 5.9 YPA and 6:12 TD/INT ratio without him.

The Eagles are also running the ball more this season, averaging 31 rushing attempts per game compared to 35 passing.  And the Panthers are great against the run too, giving up 80 rushing yards per game.  I think both offenses are going to be in more 3rd-and-long situations than they're used to because of both defenses ability to stop the run.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 59-24 (71.1%) since 1983.  

Carolina is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 home games after allowing 50 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Panthers are 71-46 UNDER in their last 117 games as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 39-17 in Eagles last 56 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3

The Chicago Bears have decided to start their No. 2 overall pick in Mitchell Trubisky against the Minnesota Vikings this week.  It was perfect timing because the Bears played last Thursday, giving Trubisky a full week and a half of prep time to get ready for the Vikings on Monday.

Teams coming off a Thursday game are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  The Chiefs & Patriots both covered in Week 2, the Texans & Bengals both covered in Week 3, and the Rams and 49ers both covered in Week 4.  That extra rest is huge in the NFL, and I look for a big performance from the Bears Monday thanks to it.

The Bears have played two monster home games this season and really should be 2-0.  If not for a couple drops at the end, they would have beaten the Falcons in Week 1.  Instead they lost 17-23 as 6.5-point dogs.  Then they won outright as 7-point dogs in a 23-17 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3.  The Falcons and Steelers are two of the best teams in the NFL.

Mike Glennon has killed the Bears with all of his turnovers.  The Bears have given the ball away a league-most 10 times and are -7 in turnover differential this season.  That's why the switch to Trubisky was warranted, and he lit it up in the preseason and clearly has the higher upside.

The Bears lost 14-35 at Green Bay last Thursday, but that final was misleading and has them undervalued here.  They gave the game away with four turnovers and many short fields for the Packers.  Their defense played well, limiting the Packers to just 260 total yards.  This is an underrated Bears stop unit that ranks No. 8 in the NFL in total defense.

The Vikings lost their best playmaker in Dalvin Cook to a season-ending ACL injury last week.  He had rushed for 354 yards in three-plus games.  Now it's Latavius Murray and his bum ankle that's supposed to replace him.  Well, Murray will be making his season debut and clearly isn't 100%.

"To be honest, I think I'm still getting to that point," said Murray, 27, who spent the previous three seasons with the Oakland Raiders. "It's not going to quite feel the same for awhile. I knew that dealing with my previous ankle procedure. For me, it's being well enough to be out there and being able to help the team be successful. I feel good enough to be out there, and I'm confident in myself that I can play at a high level."

The Vikings have been without Sam Bradford for the past three games because of a knee injury, and he is still questionable to play Monday night.  Even if he does go, he won't be 100% and will be nursing that knee injury.  And if backup Case Keenum starts again it will be a bonus for us.  But either way, the Vikings shouldn't be favored by a field goal on the road here.

That's especially the case when you consider the Bears are 8-1 straight up in their last nine home meetings with the Vikings.  They won 20-10 at home last season as 5.5-point dogs on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Chicago.  The home team is 21-8 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Monday Night games.  The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams who average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35.5 to 42 over the last three years.  These last three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Chicago.  Bet the Bears Monday.

15* Packers/Cowboys NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2

The Dallas Cowboys are going to be pissed off from their home loss to the Rams last week.  That was a tough spot for them as they were coming off a Monday night game, while the Rams were coming off a Thursday game.  I was on the Rams last week because of the spot.

This week I'm hopping on the motivated Cowboys, who will be out for revenge after losing to the Packers 31-34 at home in the playoffs last year.  That came after they had beaten the Packers 30-16 in the regular season on the road.  The Cowboys outgained the Packers in both meetings and were clearly the better team.  I think that's the case again in 2017.

The Packers come in overvalued off their 35-14 win over the Bears last week.  But that score couldn't have been more misleading.  The Bears gave the game away by committing four turnovers.  They actually held the Packers to just 260 total yards in that game.  And the week before, the Packers never led the Bengals until overtime in a 27-24 victory as 7-point home favorites.

This is a Packers offense that is in a world of hurt right no due to all the injuries.  They have been playing without their two starting tackles in David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, and it's questionable whether they'll return this week.  And two key playmakers in RB Ty Montgomery and WR Davante Adams got hurt against Chicago, and both are expected to miss this game.

The Cowboys have been fortunate in the health department.  They have no key injuries on offense.  All of their injuries have been on defense, and for the most part they are healthy.  Sean Lee missed last week with a hamstring injury and there's a chance he could return this week.  Anthony Hitchens, Chidobe Awuzie and Nolan Carroll are all questionable as well.  But they get back DL David Irving from suspension, and he's an impact player up front.

The Packers are actually below .500 on the road since 2011.  They are 3-13 on the road against playoff teams since 2011.  And the Cowboys are likely to be a playoff team this season.  The Packers were overmatched in their only road game this season, losing 23-34 at Atlanta.  That was a 34-10 game entering the fourth quarter before Green Bay tacked on two touchdowns in garbage time.

Green Bay has been vulnerable against the run this season, giving up 111 rushing yards per game.  And they haven't seen a ground attack as good as the Cowboys.  Dallas is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  They will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football in this one, which will be the key to their victory.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their previous game over the past two seasons. Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - off two or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Rams NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -1

The Los Angeles Rams still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers and the betting public.  Most believe that their 3-1 start is a fluke, but I'm a buyer on this team, and I certainly think they are better than the Seahawks right now.  That's why we'll pull the trigger on the Rams as only 1-point favorites against the Seahawks here.

The Rams lead the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 35.5 points per game and 6.5 yards per play on the season.  Jared Goff is averaging a whopping 9 yards per pass attempt while completing 67.5% of his passes.  Sean McVay is working wonders with Goff right now as one of the best offensive minds in the game.

The Seahawks keep getting treated like they are Super Bowl contenders from the betting public and oddsmakers.  As a result, they've gone just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS, consistently being overvalued this year.  And they looked terrible for a half against the Colts, actually trailing 10-15 going into halftime.  I don't think one good half against an awful Colts team changes my opinion on this team as they ended up cruising to a 46-18 victory.

The Rams are extremely healthy right now, which is about the only thing that has been lucky with this team thus far.  The same cannot be said for the Seahawks.  Seattle had mass injuries in the win over the Colts.  They lost another starting lineman in Rees Odhiambo.  CB Jeremy Lane and DE Cliff Avril were both knocked out, as was RB Chris Carson.  Both Carson and Avril will be out for this game, while Lane, Odhiambo and CB Neiko Thorpe are all questionable for this contest.

The Rams have had the Seahawks' number in recent meetings.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The key to their success has been their dominant defensive line up against a suspect Seattle offensive line.  It will be more of the same here as the Rams will win the battle in the trenches, and it will take a Russell Wilson miracle to overcome all of their offensive line woes.  He hasn't been able to in recent meetings with Aaron Donald and the Rams.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games off a blowout home win by 21 points or more.  Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  Look for a rejuvenated Rams' fan base to come out in bunches for this key divisional game.

Plays on favorites (LA RAMS) - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Rams Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

The Cincinnati Bengals felt like they should have beaten the Packers in Week 3.  They led the entire way until overtime, and lost 24-27 as 7-point road dogs at Lambeau Field.  They dropped to 0-3 and easily could have quit on their season.

Instead, they showed a ton of fight in a 31-7 win at Cleveland as 3.5-point favorites, playing their best game of the season.  Andy Dalton has shown a ton of resiliency after a disastrous start to the season.  He has completed 46-of-57 passes (80.7%) for 498 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games.

At 1-3 on the season, the Bengals feel like they still have their backs against the wall.  They cannot afford to take any games off moving forward.  They need this win here at home against the Bills.  And they won't be looking ahead to their game against the Steelers because they get a bye next week.  They will be 100% focused on beating the Bills here. 

This team now has the belief, especially with their motivational leader in Vontaze Burfict returning from suspension last week.  It's no coincidence that the defense came through with their best effort last week, limiting the Browns to just 7 points and 215 total yards.  This is a defense that is now giving up just 16.7 points, 273 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.

The offense came to life the last two weeks as well, and that should continue moving forward with all of the talent they have on this side of the ball.  They still boast A.J. Green and the three-headed monster at running back in Joe Mixon, Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard.  And Dalton has clearly found a way to get his weapons the ball with efficiency the last two weeks.

The Buffalo Bills are feeling fat and happy right now after their surprising 3-1 start.  After beating the Broncos at home, the Bills got a huge break last week when both Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu were knocked out of the game with injuries.  Clearly, the Falcons are just an average team without those two.  And the Bills took advantage and pulled the 23-17 road upset as 8-point dogs.  Now, this is a clear letdown spot for Buffalo.

I think these teams are pretty evenly-matched defensively as the Bills also have a very good D.  But there's no question the Bengals have the better offense.  The Bills are averaging just 18.2 points, 284 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play offensively. They are only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and 171 passing yards per game.

Tyrod Taylor has done a good job of keeping the Bills in games by not turning the ball over.  In fact, the Bills have committed just one turnover all season, compared to eight for Cincinnati.  There is going to be some regression to the mean here as the Bills are +6 in turnover differential, while the Bengals are -5. 

And now Taylor is going to be without leading receiver Jordan Matthews (10 receptions, 162 yards, 16.2/catch), who is expected to miss the next 3-4 weeks with a thumb injury. This Bills team hasn't been as good as their record as they are actually getting outgained by 22 yards per game on the season and dead even in yards per play.  The Bengals are better than their record, outgaining teams by 19 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play.

Cincinnati is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 games after leading the previous game by 14 points or more at the half.  Buffalo is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games versus good defensive teams that allow 4.75 or fewer yards per play this season.

Plays on favorites (CINCINNATI) - after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 56

All the talk coming into this game is how poor the defenses have been playing for both the Bucs and Patriots.  That has forced oddsmakers to post an inflated number, and now the value is clearly with the UNDER 56 points in this matchup Thursday night.

The Patriots have been the worst defensive team in the NFL thus far.  What are the chances of it remaining that way moving forward with Bill Belichick at the helm?  Slim to none.  I look for a big effort from the Patriots' defense in this one to try and prove their naysayers wrong.

And you can bet that Tom Brady and company will be trying to help out the defense as much as possible.  And that means slowing down the pace, moving the chains, and keeping the defense off the field.  Look for the Patriots to go to more of a ball control offense moving forward until the defense catches up.

Injuries were a big reason why the Bucs gave up 34 points at Minnesota in Week 3.  But they are expected to have both Kwon Alexander and Brent Grimes in this one, two players they didn't have in that game.  Plus T.J. Ward could return from a quad injury.

The Bucs have a ton of talent on defense and will be fine moving forward.  They have been much better at home this season, limiting their two opponents to just 15.0 points per game.  I believe they'll fare better against the Patriots on that side of the ball than most are expecting.

Tampa Bay has had to rely on the pass too much in the early going, only averaging 85 rushing yards per game.  But they should have more balance now with Doug Martin returning from his three-game suspension.  More runs means the clock will keep moving with fewer incompletions, which aids the under.

Plays on the UNDER on roadteams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last 10 seasons.  After four straight overs by the Patriots to open the season, this number is simply inflated.  We'll go against the public perception here and back the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Redskins/Chiefs UNDER 49.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this matchup between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs Monday night.  I full expect a defensive battle here and for points to be much harder to come by than this 49.5-point total would suggest.

One of the surprises of this young season is just how well the Redskins have played defensively.  They are only giving up 20.0 points, 272 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 29.4 points, 348 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 9.4 points, 76 yards and 0.7 yards per play less than their season average.

Of course, nobody has had a better defensive performance than the Redskins had last week in dismantling the Raiders 27-10.  That was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They held the Raiders to just 128 total yards and forced three turnovers.  That's very impressive when you consider how much talent is on that Oakland offense.

The Chiefs have played well offensively thus far, but they won't keep up this pace as this is still a limited offense.  More than anything, the Chiefs have been winning with defense once again.  They are giving up just 19.0 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 24.9 points and 6.0 yards per play.  Despite playing some very good offenses, both defenses have really shown well thus far.

Both teams are actually relying very heavily on the run this season, which is going to keep the clock moving.  The Redskins are rushing for 136 yards per game while the Chiefs are averaging 162 yards per game on the ground.  And both quarterbacks have been extremely accurate with the Chiefs completing 77.4% of their passes, and the Redskins 68.0%.  But a lot of that is due to dink and dunk, which is a good way to move the ball down the field, but you won't see type of explosive plays in this one that would normally kill an under.

Washington is a perfect 10-0 UNDER in its last 10 Monday Night football road games.  Kansas City is 8-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 6-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards per game over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday night.

20* Raiders/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver -2.5

The Denver Broncos were in a tough spot last week.  They were traveling on the road for the first time after coming off a huge 42-17 win over the Cowboys, and with an even bigger game against the Raiders on deck.  It's forgivable that they lost out East to the Buffalo Bills, who have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.

According to this 2.5-point spread, the betting public is down on the Broncos all of a sudden.  And they're quick to forgive the Raiders for their 10-27 loss at Washington.  But that was easily the worst performance of the week from any team.  The Raiders managed just 118 total yards and committed three turnovers against a very shaky Washington defense.  They were outgained by a whopping 344 yards in the loss!

Denver lost 16-26 at Buffalo, but that was a misleading final.  The Broncos actually outgained the Bills by 94 yards.  And on the season, the Broncos are outgaining teams by 93 yards per game.  Their offense has produced 27.3 points and 356 yards per game, while their defense may be the best in the NFL, giving up 21.3 points, 263 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  The Raiders give up 6.2 yards per play for comparison.

The Broncos beat the Raiders 24-6 as 1-point home favorites last year.  They held the Raiders to just 221 total yards.  They do have the best pass defense in the NFL, which is why they match up so well with Derek Carr and the Raiders.  The Broncos have won four of their last five home meetings with the Raiders overall.

Trevor Siemian is better than he gets credit for.  He is completing 63% of his passes for 709 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 7.1 per attempt.  The Denver rushing attack is working well behind the two-headed monster of C.J. Anderson (235 yards, 4.4/carry) and Jamaal Charles (142 yards, 4.1/carry).  And the Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders form one of the more underrated WR duos in the NFL.

The Broncos are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Denver is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss.  The favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series.  The Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* 49ers/Cardinals NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco +7

I have cashed in the 49ers as a premium pick each of the last two weeks.  They covered as 14-point road dogs in a 12-9 loss at Seattle, and snuck in the cover as 3-point dogs in a 39-41 loss to the Rams last week.  I'm on them again this week because I think they are better than oddsmakers and the betting public give them credit for.

I'm also on them because of the tremendous scheduling advantage.  The 49ers played last Thursday, giving them a mini-bye week.  Teams coming off Thursday games are 4-0 ATS this season, and I cashed in both the Bengals and Texans in this same spot last week.

Making the spot even better for the 49ers is the fact that the Cardinals are working on a short week after losing 17-28 at home to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  The Cardinals are broken right now without David Johnson, and it's clear that Carson Palmer needs to retire.  There's no way Arizona should be laying 7 points here.

After playing two very great defenses in the Panthers and Seahawks the first two weeks, the 49ers finally got on track offensively against another good defense in the Rams last week.  They racked up 421 yards and 39 points against the Rams.  Brian Hoyer threw for 332 yards, while Carlos Hyde rushed for 84 yards and two scores.  Pierre Garcon showed why he was their prized offseason acquisition, catching 7 balls for 142 yards in the loss.

The Cardinals have obviously been terrible offensively, but their defense has surprisingly taken a step back this year.  They are giving up 25.3 points per game on the season.  I think Kyle Shanahan, one of the best offensive minds in the game, will utilize this extra prep time to take advantages of the holes that have been showing up in this Arizona defense.

San Francisco only lost 20-23 at Arizona last year.  That was a bad 49ers team, much worse than the 2017 version.  And the Cardinals were much better last year than they are this season.  I'm not so sure that there's much difference in these teams talent-wise right now, which is why the 49ers shouldn't be catching a touchdown.

Plays on any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NFC West opponents.  The Cardinals are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The 49ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Arizona.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Rams +7.5

This is a great spot to back the Los Angeles Rams.  The Rams are coming off a Thursday game, getting a mini-bye week.  The Dallas Cowboys played on Monday Night Football, making this short week for them.  It's a huge scheduling spot advantage for the Rams, and I look for them to capitalize Sunday.

After all, teams coming off a Thursday game are 4-0 ATS this season.  I had the two last week in the Bengals and Texans as premium picks, and both cashed with ease.  Not to mention, the Cowboys are 0-8 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a Monday Night game.

Plus, the Rams are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They are off to a 2-1 start with a 46-9 home win over Indianapolis, and a 41-39 road win at San Francisco.  I can forgive their 20-27 loss to the Redskins considering what the Redskins did to the Raiders last week, outgaining them by 344 yards in a 27-10 victory.

Sean McVay is doing big things with the Rams.  He was the former offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins, and he is starting to help Jared Goff get to the next level.  The Rams are averaging 35.7 points, 374 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play on offense.  Goff is completing 70.4 percent of his pases for 817 yards with five touchdowns and one interception while averaging a whopping 10.1 yards per attempt.  Todd Gurley has already found the end zone six times in three games, and Sammy Watkins is averaging 14.9 yards per catch with two scores.

The Cowboys were fortunate to win their game against the lowly Cardinals last week.  Dak Prescott made some big plays, and the Cardinals' special teams kept giving them short fields.  The Cardinals had a TD called back by a penalty that would have put them up 14-0, then proceeded to miss a short field goal.  It completely changed the complexion of the game.

I think the Dallas offensive line is overrated right now.  They're really not playing well up front.  They are only averaging 89 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.  Dak Prescott has consistently been under duress.  This is a Cowboys offense that is only averaging 311 yards per game, and a big reason has been the offensive line struggles.

Defensively, the Cowboys have some key injuries in the secondary and were absolutely lit up by Trevor Siemian two weeks ago.  They are giving up 67.8% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  Look for Goff to continue making strides this week as he lights up this Dallas secondary.

The spot already couldn't be worse for the Cowboys with the short week and the Rams coming off extended rest.  But adding to that is the fact that the Cowboys play the Packers next week, and they want revenge from their loss to Green Bay in the NFC Divisional Round.  So this is a look-ahead spot as well.

Jason Garrett is 13-27 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  The Rams are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team - averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -1.5

I believe the Minnesota Vikings are neck-and-neck with the Atlanta Falcons as the best team in the NFC.  And getting them under a field goal here at home against the Detroit Lions is an excellent value.  This line suggest Case Keenum will get the start again, as it would be a field goal or more if Sam Bradford was going to play.  But I just don't believe there's that big of a difference between Keenum and Bradford.

The Vikings have one of the best rosters in the NFL.  They are loaded everywhere, so it makes the job much easier on the quarterback.  And Keenum certainly did his part last week in a 34-17 win over Tampa Bay.  He went 25 of 33 passing for 369 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.  The Vikings racked up 494 yards as a team, so clearly they are fine without Bradford.

The Detroit Lions are getting way too much respect from the books due to their 2-1 start.  But they trailed Arizona 17-15 in the 4th quarter in Week 1 before David Johnson got hurt, and the Cardinals have been awful since.  They beat a Giants team that is now 0-3 and had offensive line injury problems at the time they played them.

Sure, the Lions only lost 26-30 to the Falcons last week at home, but that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Falcons outgained them 428 to 324 and lost the turnover battle 3-0, including a pick-6 by the Lions, yet Detroit still couldn't beat them.  And it's going to be tough for them to recover mentally after having a potential game-winning touchdown called back by a review, requiring a 10-second runoff to end the game.

The Vikings started fast last year and they are starting fast this year.  But they were bad in the second half due to injuries throughout the roster.  And they played the Lions twice in November last year during their bad stretch, losing 16-22 at home and 16-13 on the road.  You can bet the Vikings are going to want to exact some revenge here on their division rivals, and they are healthy basically everywhere but the QB position this time around.

The Vikings have gone 19-4 straight up in their last 23 home meetings with the Lions.  Matthew Stafford is 5-47 in his career against teams with a winning record.  The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Vikings are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Minnesota is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 home games overall.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

25* NFL Overseas GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -2

The New Orleans Saints have played the toughest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They have been underdogs in all three games at Minnesota, versus New England and at Carolina, so they've done a good job of coming away with a 1-2 record.  Their 34-13 domination of Carolina was particularly impressive because the defense stepped up, limiting the Panthers to just 288 total yards and forcing three turnovers.

Now the Saints get a break here against one of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Miami Dolphins should be 0-2, but San Diego's kicker missed on the final play of the game, so they escaped with a 19-17 victory.  And the Chargers clearly aren't very good.  Then last week the Dolphins would have been shut out by arguably the worst team in the league in the Jets if Adam Gase hadn't called a timeout with six seconds left.  They scored a TD on the final play, avoiding the shutout in an embarrassing 6-20 loss as 5.5-point favorites.

The Saints had some key injuries and suspensions that they had to deal with through the first three games.  But one of Drew Brees' favorite targets in Willie Sneed returns from his 3-game suspension, and now tackles Terron Armstead and Zach Strief are likely to return from injury this week.  Getting healthy is going to make the Saints a very dangerous team moving forward.

The Dolphins are in another tough spot here.  They have done way too much traveling here in a short amount of time.  They stayed out in California for a week ahead of their game against the Chargers, then flew back to Miami to practice before flying all the way up to New York.  Now they have to head back down to Miami, and head overseas to London.  You can bet these players have to be sick of traveling by now, and it certainly has set them behind in the preparation department.

It's clear that Jay Cutler should have stuck with his decision to call games from a booth.  The Dolphins' offense is averaging just 12.5 points, 280 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play against opponents that are allowing 23.2 points, 335 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  And their defense hasn't been much better, surrendering 6.4 yards per play against opponents that only average 5.3 yards per play.

The Saints are 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last three seasons.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game over the past three seasons.  Miami is 15-34 ATS in its last 49 games off a two-game road trip.  New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 October games.  The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Bears/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay -6.5

I think last week's results are keeping this line lower than it should be.  The Bears upset the Steelers 23-17 in overtime, while the Packers needed overtime to beat the Bengals 27-24.  Chicago won outright as 7-point dogs, while Green Bay was fortunate to win the game as 7-point favorites.  If not for those results, the Packers would be closer to 10-point favorites.

I faded the Packers last week due to injury concerns along their offensive line, and the fact that the Bengals were coming off a Thursday game and playing for their season.  But I think this is a good spot to back the home team.  It's tough to travel on a short week for the Bears, and they just aren't as good as the Bengals in my opinion.

We saw what happened to the Bears when they went on the road for their only game this year, losing 7-29 to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  Mike Glennon played a terrible game and the Bears committed four turnovers as a team.  I don't think Glennon can match Rodgers score for scores.

The Bears had control of the game against the Steelers so they were able to play to their strength, which is their running game.  In fact, Mike Glennon went 15-of-22 passing for just 101 yards in the win.  He only compleleted one pass to a wide receiver as 12 of his completions came to running backs.  That vanilla offense isn't going to work against Green Bay, and they're going to be toast once they fall behind.  They don't have the firepower to catch up.

The Packers are expected to get back some key parts this week in WR Randall Cobb, LB Nick Perry and DT Mike Daniels this week.  They still have their offensive line concerns, but fortunately they have a mobile quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who makes his biggest plays when getting outside the pocket.  He relishes this challenge.

Death, taxes and the Packers owning the Bears are the only certainties in life.  Green Bay has won 12 of its last 14 meetings with Chicago.  The Packers have covered in 10 of the last 13 meetings as well.  They won 26-10 at home last year as 7-point favorites, outgaining the Bears by 217 yards in the process.

Mike McCarthy is 47-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of the Packers.  He is 28-15 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Green Bay.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when the total is 42.5 to 49 points.  The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Green Bay is 45-22 ATS in its last 67 vs. NFC North opponents.  Take the Packers Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 47

There are a lot of factors that point to a low-scoring game Monday night between the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals.  I think this 47-point total is too high here, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER.

The Cardinals have not been sharp on offense since losing David Johnson.  They only managed 13 points in regulation against a terrible Colts' defense last week.  Carson Palmer is a shell of his former self and can't carry a team like he used to.  Plus three of his top targers in WR JJ Nelson, WR John Brown and TE Jermaine Gresham are all banged up and questionable to play Monday.

The Cowboys did not look good defensively against the Broncos last week.  However, they should have much more success on that side of the ball against this limited Arizona offense.  We saw the Cowboys hold the Giants to just 3 points in Week 1, so I don't think they are broken on that side of the ball just yet.  And they are expected to get starting CB Orlando Scandrick back this week after he missed last week.

I expect the Cowboys to get back to running the football on offense.  They got away from their game plan last week and Dak Prescott had to throw a whopping 50 passes against the Broncos last week because they were trailing the whole game.  They only had 14 rush attempts.  They'll try to establish Zeke Elliott early and often, and that will help to chew up clock, extend drives and keep their vulnerable defense off the field.

Arizona does still have one of the elite defenses in the NFL.  The Cardinals finished No. 2 in the league in total defense last season.  They are great at all three levels with tremendous pass rushers, speedy linebackers and arguably the best secondary in the game.  They held the Colts to just 266 total yards last week and 13 points.  They gave up 35 points to the Lions in Week 1, but that was mostly due to the offense committing four turnovers, one of which was returned for a TD.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Arizona is 6-0 UNDER in home games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three years.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Cardinals last 12 home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Cardinals last six Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Bengals/Packers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +9

The Cincinnati Bengals are just the type of 'buy low' team that I like to back.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after their 0-2 start.  They haven't score a touchdown yet, one of only two teams (49ers) to accomplish that feat through two weeks.  And the 49ers covered against the Rams on Thursday and scored 39 points.

The Bengals are in a good spot to correct their mistakes.  They are coming off a mini-bye week after playing last Thursday, which was the perfect time to fire their offensive coordinator.  It gives them extra time to get used to Bill Lazor's offense as he steps into the position after being the QB coach.  And this was a banged up team that has had extra time to get healthy as well.  I always like backing teams coming off a Thursday game, and we saw both the Pats and Chiefs cover in this situation last week.

The Bengals just have too much talent on offense to be held in check for much longer.   They have AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, Tyler Boyd and a three-headed monster at RB led by talented rookie Joe Mixon, who should see an increased role with Lazor calling the shots.  Playing two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Ravens and Texans has certainly been a big reason for their offensive struggles.  I strongly believe the Bengals will live up to their potential on this side of the ball this week.

The Packers have been one of the biggest public teams for years.  Bettors are just going to back them blindly because they are at home.  But remember, this is a Packers team that started 4-6 last year and needed a big run just to make the playoffs.  Aaron Rodgers is making a habit of working magic late in seasons, but it's also been a trend that this team gets off to slow starts and is a money burner early in the year.

That's going to be the case again in 2017 simply because the Packers have huge injury concerns right now that they can't just overcome and win games by margins.  Their best defensive player in DT Mike Daniels left the Atlanta game last week and is questionable.  LB Nick Perry and LB Ahmad Brooks are both questionable.  And that's just on defense.

The problems are much bigger on offense.  The Packers played without their two starting tackles along the offensive line last week and both are questionable to return this week.  Both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were knocked out of the game last week due to injury and are questionable to play.  This is simply a mash unit right now that isn't capable of covering a 9-point spread against a hungry Bengals team coming off a mini-bye week.

Plays against home favorites (GREEN BAY) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 33-5 (86.8%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +13.5

Yes, I'm fading the Patriots again this week.  I had the Chiefs in Week 1 against them which was an easy winner. But I lost with the Saints last week.  However, there were a few takeaways from that Saints game that has me quick to fade the Patriots again.

New England jumped out to a 30-13 halftime lead. But they only scored 6 points in the 2nd half.  And a lot of that had to do with the injuries suffered on offense throughout the game  The Patriots came into the game without both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.

Then Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and Philip Dorsett all got hurt.  Hogan is probable to play this week, while Gronk and Dorsett are both questionable.  I know the Patriots find ways to score no matter what, but they are seriously limited right now on offense.  So asking them to beat the Texans by two touchdowns here is asking too much.

I like what I saw from the Texans last week.  They led the NFL in total defense last year and have a dominant unit again.  They held the Bengals to just 3 field goals.

Offensively, the switch to Deshaun Watson at QB is huge for this team I think.  His athletic ability helps mask some of the issues on the offensive line.  That was evident with his 49-yard TD run that basically won the game for the Texans.  He didn't turn the ball over, and they rushed for 168 yards as a team.  I'd like to see Watson use his legs more because he's a serious weapon.

The Texans should have WR Bruce Ellington and TE Ryan Griffin back this week from concussions.  CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Will Fuller and TE Stephen Andersen all returned to practice this week after missing last week.  So Watson will have more weapons to work with and should find plenty of success against this soft Patriots defense.

The Patriots allowed 31 PPG in the preseason.  Now they are giving up 31 PPG and 483 YPG in the regular season through two games.  Their most important defensive player, LB Dont'a Hightower, missed last week with an injury and is questionable to return this week.

It's a huge advantage for the Texans getting that 3 extra days of rest after playing last Thursday.  I always like backing teams coming off a Thursday night game and getting that mini-bye, which has helped the Texans get heatlhy.  Both the Patriots and Chiefs covered last week in this same situation.  Houston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games.  Take the Texans Sunday.