15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on North Texas +4

North Texas lost 46-50 at home to Florida Atlantic as a 2-point favorite in their first meeting this season on December 29th.  It's revenge time for the Mean Green today as they are now 4-point road underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.  I fully expect the Mean Green to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

North Texas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 conference road games.  The Mean Green are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  The Mean Green are 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 road games.  The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Plays on road underdogs (North Texas) - revenging a loss as a home favorite against an opponent that's off two consecutive conference wins by 5 points or less are 72-32 (69.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Owls' luck runs out today following four consecutive wins by 4 points or fewer coming in.  Take North Texas Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane -1.5

Tulane is playing its best basketball of the season right now and should be a bigger favorite at home here against UCF.  The Green Wave are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with an upset home win over Memphis by 7 as 4-point dogs, a blowout win over Tulsa by 16, an upset road win at Temple by 11 and a solid 9-point win at SMU.

Now they host a UCF team in a clear letdown spot off a double-OT win over Memphis at home on Wednesday.  G Darius Johnson (11.8 PPG, 4.3 APG) is questionable after sitting out that Memphis game and F Michael Durr (4.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) is out for the Knights.

The Knights are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Green Wave beat the Knights 82-67 at home last season.  UCF is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following two consecutive conference games.  The Green Wave are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 80 points or more in their previous game.  Bet Tulane Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Villanova/Butler UNDER 134

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 332nd in adjusted tempo and play at a snail's pace.  They have really struggled on offense this season scoring just 71.1 PPG on 43.5% shooting.  But they still lock it down defensively holding opponents to 43.6% shooting.

Butler also likes to slow it down ranking 216th in the country in adjusted tempo.  They are a great defensive team ranking 52nd in adjusted defense, allowing just 43.2% shooting on the season.  They also struggle on offense, scoring 69.4 points per game on 45.8% shooting.

Both teams are coming off consecutive losses which will add to their motivation tonight, and that extra hard play will show up on defense more than on offense.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Butler's last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Villanova's last seven games overall.  Butler is 7-1 UNDER vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +12.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the UCLA Bruins tonight.  They have won 11 consecutive games coming in but have had a couple lackluster efforts of late that will bleed into tonight.  Three games ago they beat Washington State by 1 as 8.5-point road favorites, and last time out they only beat USC by 2 as 11-point home favorites to barely keep this streak alive.

Now they face an underrated Utah Utes team tonight that is a sleeper in the Pac-12 this season.  The Utes are 12-5 this season with their five losses all coming by 10 points or fewer.  They haven't lost by this kind of margin all season, and asking the Bruins to win by 13 points or more tonight to beat us is asking too much.

Utah has done its best work on the road this season going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with two outright upsets with the only loss coming at BYU.  The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, while the Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with Utah Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Loyola-Marymount +14

Loyola-Marymount is 12-6 this season with all six loses coming by 16 points or fewer.  This 14-point spread is too high tonight when you look at the recent head-to-head series between Loyola-Marymount and St. Mary's.  Six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer.

Loyola-Marymount is a perfect 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss this season.  St. Mary's is 24-43 ATS in its last 67 home games following a conference win by 10 points or more.  The Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Loyola-Marymount is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss.  The road team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take Loyola-Marymount Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Louisville +17.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Clemson Tigers.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and are coming off two consecutive upset road wins at VA Tech by 3 and Pitt by 1.  They have a home game against Duke on deck Saturday and will be looking ahead to that game.  That makes this a letdown and sandwich spot for the Tigers, and I don't think they'll be motivated enough to beat Louisville by 18-plus points, which is what it's going to take to beat us tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cardinals as they have quietly gone 4-0 ATS in thier last four games overall.  They only lost by 12 at NC State as 17.5-point dogs, by 23 as Kentucky as 23.5-point dogs, by 1 to Syracuse as 9-point dogs and by 8 to Wake Forest as 9.5-point dogs.  They have been very competitive in ACC play and will continue to be tonight at Clemson.

Louisville is 30-11 ATS in its last 41 road games following four or more consecutive ATS wins.  Clemson is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games after covering six or seven of its last eight games.

Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Clemson) - following three consecutive conference wins against an opponent that's off two or more consecutive home losses are 32-11 (74.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Louisville Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Alabama/Arkansas UNDER 153.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the country square off tonight when Arkansas and Alabama get together.  The Crimson Tide rank 11th in the country in adjusted defense, while the Razorbacks rank 9th in adjusted defense.  This total is way too high given how both teams get after it defensively.

Alabama's last four games have seen 148, 145, 146 and 130 combined points.  Arkansas' last five games have seen 133, 136, 117, 142 and 131 combined points.  The UNDER has gone 8-1 in those nine games combined.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 149 or fewer points in all three.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Arkansas' eight home games this season.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -2

Penn State is 8-1 at home this season and should be a bigger favorite over Indiana tonight.  The Nittany Lions come in motivated after back-to-back losses at Michigan and on a neutral to Purdue.

They face a team they should handle tonight in the Indiana Hoosiers, who continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  The Hoosiers are 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their only two wins both coming at home over Elon and Kennesaw State.  They also lost at home to Northwestern, at Iowa, at Kansas by 22 and on a neutral to Arizona by 14.

A big reason for Indiana's recent struggles is due to losing two key players in Xavier Johnson (9.9 PPG, 4.9 APG, 37% 3-pointers) and Race Thompson (8.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) to injury.  That is putting too much pressure on Jackson-Davis' shoulders, and teams can just focus in on double-teaming him and trying to make others beat them, which the Hoosiers don't have the guns to do.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games following a conference loss.  Indiana is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.  The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  The home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  These five trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Nittany Lions.  Take Penn State Wednesday. 

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Nevada +9.5

Nevada has been one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 14-3 SU & 11-4-1 ATS this season and continue to be undervalued catching 9.5 points tonight at San Diego State.

San Diego State is 12-3 SU but just 4-10 ATS in lined games and has been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Asking them to beat Nevada by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.

Amazingly, each of the last six meetings between Nevada and San Diego State have been decided by 7 points or less, so that fact alone is giving us tremendous value on the Wolf Pack.  Nevada is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Aztecs.  The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

The Wolf Pack are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Nevada is 64-30-3 ATS in its last 97 games following an ATS win.  San Diego State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Aztecs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Nevada is 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Wolf Pack are 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Take Nevada Tuesday.

15* UNC/Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +4.5

Virginia has been grossly overvalued since beaten both Illinois and Baylor early in the season.  It turns out Baylor and Illinois both aren't very good.  And the Cavaliers aren't very good, either as they have gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

North Carolina has been undervalued since a poor start to the season and a four-game losing streak to Iowa State, Alabama, Indiana and Virginia Tech.  They have gotten healthy since and are playing some great basketball, going 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 points.

UNC crushed Virginia in both meetings last season winning by 16 at home and by 20 on a neutral.  Virginia is 2-9 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Take North Carolina Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma +10.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Kansas Jayhawks.  They have gone 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and are coming off consecutive road wins over Texas Tech and West Virginia, two teams that aren't as good as they get credit for.

Kansas barely survived a 69-67 win over Oklahoma State as 10-point favorites in its last home game, and also failed to covered as 21.5-point favorites in a 14-point win over Harvard in its previous home game.  Now they take on a game Oklahoma team that just doesn't get blown out with their slow it down, defensive mindset.

Oklahoma is 10-5 this season with all five losses by 10 points or fewer, including four losses by 4 points or fewer.  That makes for a 15-0 system backing the Sooners pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Recent head-to-head history also shows this is too many points.  Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Kansas with all five games decided by 7 points or fewer.

Kansas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after attempting 7 or fewer free throws last game.  The Sooners are 22-11 ATS in their last 33 games as underdogs.  Porter Moser is 37-14 ATS as a road dog of 10 or more points as a head coach.  Roll with Oklahoma Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/Iowa State UNDER 129

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cyclones rank 294th in adjusted tempo and 12th in adjusted defense this season.  The UNDER is 14-4 in Cyclones last 18 games overall dating back to last season.

Texas Tech ranks 24th in adjusted defense.  The Red Raiders are struggling on offense right now due to injuries.  Batcho (12.4 PPG), Isaacs (11.3 PPG) and Allen (3.7 PPG) are all questionable to play for the Red Raiders tonight.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings.  These teams met three times last season with combined scores of 98, 113 and 132 points.  This total of 129 is too high tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Kent State -3.5

Kent State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 12-3 SU this season with their three losses all coming on the road to Gonzaga (by 7), Houston (by 5) and College of Charleston (by 2).  Houston and Gonzaga are two of the best teams in the country, while Charleston is 16-1 this season.

The Golden Flashes are home now and take on an overrated Toledo team that sits at 10-5 on the season with losses to Missouri-KC by 12, ECU by 11, George Mason by 7, Marshall by 15 and Ball State by 7.  Those are all way worse losses than what Kent State has.

Kent State is 22-12 SU & 24-10 ATS in its last 34 meetings with Toledo, including 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS in its last 16 home meetings.  Toledo is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after scoring 80 points or more in three consecutive games.  The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games following two or more consecutive wins.

Kent State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  The Golden Flashes are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Kent State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Golden Flashes are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  Roll with Kent State Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on LSU +2

LSU is 9-0 at home this season and should not be a home underdog to Florida.  The Tigers just upset Arkansas in their last home game and return home from a two-game trip at Kentucky and Texas A&M highly motivated for a victory after dropping both.

Florida is 1-1 in true road games this season with its lone win at lowly Florida State.  The Gators have been grossly overvalued all season going 8-7 SU as well as 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have no business being road favorites here.

Florida is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Gators are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games following a win.  Florida is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet LSU Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +10

The Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are ready to give Houston a run for its money.

The Cougars are coming off a blowout home win over SMU that has them overvalued. They had previously only beaten UCF by 6 as 15-point home favorites. This will only be their 3rd true road game this season. They won by 10 at Oregon and by 8 at Virginia, and I think Cincinnati can stay within single-digits of them, if not pull off the upset.

The Bearcats are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games and will have a huge home-court advantage today with Houston coming to town. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with Cincinnati Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Houston/Cincinnati UNDER 135

The recent head-to-head history between Cincinnati and Houston indicates this total has been set too high. They have combined for 125, 128, 138, 135, 132, 123, 126 and 126 points in their last eight meetings.

As you can see, they have combined for 135 or fewer points in seven of their last eight meetings. They played each other three times last season, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

Houston is a dead nuts UNDE team ranking 342nd in adjusted tempo and 2nd in defensive efficiency. The UNDER is 43-20 in Bearcats last 63 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 37-15-1 in Cougars last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Ohio State/Maryland UNDER 140.5

Both Ohio State and Maryland will be motivated for wins today as both are coming off losses. I think that will have their defensive intensity high, and we'll take advantage by backing the UNDER.

Ohio State ranks 233rd in the country in adjusted tempo and 77th in adjusted defense. Maryland ranks 222nd in adjusted tempo and 32nd in adjusted defense. So both teams play slow, and both get after it defensively. Maryland has been held to 46 and 50 points in consecutive losses.

Maryland is 11-4 UNDER in all games this season. The UNDER is 10-1 in Maryland's last 11 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Northwestern/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +6.5

The Northwestern Wildcats have a great chance to upset the Indiana Hoosiers today. They are 11-3 overall including 6-1 in their last seven games overall with upset wins over both Michigan State by 7 on the road and Illinois by 13 at home.

Indiana is 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. A big reason for the Hoosiers' struggles is playing without Xavier Johnson (11.6 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.4 RPG) during this stretch. Now they are without Race Thompson (8.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) as well.

Northwestern is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Indiana. Bet Northwestern Sunday.

15* Purdue/Ohio State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -1

The Purdue Boilermakers just had their perfect 13-0 record go away with a 64-65 home loss to Rutgers last time out.  I always like fading teams the game after having a long winning streak come to an end because there tends to be a hangover effect.  And this is a brutal spot for the Boilermakers tonight.

They now have to travel to face an Ohio State team that is 10-3 this season and playing well, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 34, 31 and 16 points.  The Buckeyes are a perfect 7-0 SU at home this season and outscoring opponents by 27.0 points per game.  They basically just have to win this game to cover tonight.

The Boilermakers have been one of the most overrated teams in the country dating back to last season, going 6-18-3 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Purdue is 2-12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  The Boilermakers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Roll with Ohio State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Illinois ML -115

Drake has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.  They are 11-4 SU but just 4-9-1 ATS.  The Bulldogs have been terrible in true road games, going 0-4 SU with losses at Indiana State, Richmond, Saint Louis and Missouri State.

Southern Illinois has won six straight coming in and has a tremendous home-court advantage.  The Salukis are 6-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming to Indiana State by 3.  They are outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game at home this season.

Southern Illinois has had this game circled all offseason.  They have triple-revenge in mind after losing all three meetings with Drake last season, including losses by 1 and 2 points in the regular season before getting knocked out of the MVC Tournament by the Bulldogs.  They get their revenge in their first meeting in 2022-23.

The Bulldogs are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games overall.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Southern Illinois Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Penn State/Michigan UNDER 142

Penn State ranks 275th in adjusted tempo and 63rd in adjusted defense.  Michigan has been playing faster at 115th in adjusted tempo while playing solid D at 72nd in adjusted defense.  This total has way too high when you consider the head-to-head series history.

Michigan and Penn State have combined for 141 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings with the lone exception being 144 points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +6.5

What more does Pittsburgh have to do to start getting some respect from bettors and the books alike?  The Panthers have gone 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming by a single point at Vanderbilt, 74-75 as 3.5-point dogs.

The Panthers have pulled off upsets of UNC as 6.5-point home dogs, Syracuse as 3.5-point road dogs, NC State as 10-point road dogs and Northwestern as 7.5-point road dogs during this stretch.  So it's not like they are beating up on inferior teams.

Now the Panthers are 6.5-point home dogs to a Virginia team that has only played three true road games this season.  They won by 2 at Michigan and lost by 2 at Miami while winning and covering against a bad Georgia Tech team.

The last three meetings between Virginia and Pittsburgh were decided by 1, 5 and 7 points with two of those being at Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers consistently.  Virginia is 14-29-2 ATS in its last 45 games following an ATS win.  Take Pittsburgh Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +4

Cincinnati has benefitted from playing a home-heavy, easy schedule this season.  The Bearcats have played the 281st-ranked schedule and have only played one true road game this season.  They lost outright by 13 at Northern Kentucky as 6.5-point favorites.  

I think they lose outright here too as this is a great time to 'sell high' on the Bearcats after going 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Seven of those games were at home with a neutral game against lowly Louisville mixed in.

Temple has played the 123rd-ranked schedule, which is nearly 150 spots harder than that of Cincinnati.  It's a Temple team that has beaten the likes of Villanova, Rutgers and VCU this season with five of their seven losses coming by single-digits.

Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  Temple is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Cincinnati with two outright upsets and a 2-point loss as a 6.5-point dog.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Temple Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +6

Santa Clara is too good to be catching 6 points at home to St. Mary's today.  Santa Clara is 13-3 this season with the three losses coming to Utah State, UCF and San Jose State with two of those on the road.  The Broncos are 10-1 at home this season and have won five consecutive games coming in with the last three all by 9 points or more.  That includes wins over quality opponents in San Francisco by 12 and Boise State by 15 in their last two games.

St. Mary's is 11-4 this season with losses to Washington, New Mexico, Houston and Colorado State.  Amazingly, the Gaels have yet to play a true road game, so this will be their first true road game of 2022.  They almost made it to 2023 without having to play a true road game, which is just nuts.  I always like fading teams in their first true road game.

The head-to-head history also shows Santa Clara is catching too many points tonight.  The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Gaels.  Amazingly, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less, including five by 6 points or fewer.  The Broncos are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games following three or more consecutive home wins.  Roll with Santa Clara Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Seattle -4

The Seattle Redhawks are loaded this season and off to a 9-4 start including 5-0 at home.  The four losses were all to very good teams in Iona, Utah State, Washington and Oregon State.  They have handled all other teams, and they will handle Cal Baptist tonight.

Cal Baptist is 8-6 SU & 5-7-1 ATS this season.  The Lancers have some really bad losses along the way especially on the road.  They lost by 11 at Cal Poly as 4.5-point favorites.  They lost by 2 at home to Portland State as a 7-point favorite and by 15 at home to Long Beach State as a 4-point favorite.  Last time out they lost by 14 at Grand Canyon as a 6-point dog.  Portland State is a common opponent, and Seattle beat them by 12 at home.

Seattle has won three straight meetings with Cal Baptist.  Seattle is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Redhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after allowing 25 points or fewer in the first half last game.  Take Seattle Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UNLV +4.5

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 11-2 SU & 7-5 ATS this season with their two losses by 2 and 3 points, so they haven't lost by this margin all season.  They will relish this opportunity to try and take down San Diego State and pull off the upset as home underdogs.

San Diego State is 10-3 SU but 3-9 ATS, classifying as one of the most overrated teams in the country.  And they have only played one true road game this season with a win at lowly Stanford, while going 1-3 on neutrals.  They've done almost all their damage at home.

UNLV is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week.  The Aztecs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The home team is 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Mexico -2

New Mexico is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Lobos are 13-0 SU & 8-3-1 ATS this season with upset road wins over both SMU and St. Mary's, as well as wins over San Francisco, Iona and Colorado State.  They want to go into 2023 with an unbeaten record and will be motivated to do just that, so there will be no letdown here.

Wyoming is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cowboys are 5-8 SU & 3-8-1 ATS this season.  They really miss one of the best big men in the country in Ike, who average 19.9 PPG and 9.6 RPG last season and has yet to make his debut.  G Kenny Foster (5.9 PPG) is questionable for the Cowboys today as well.

Wyoming has lost three straight to Dayton by 17, St. Mary's by 12 and Fresno State by 5 coming in.  That gives these teams a common opponent in St. Mary's, who the Lobos upset in a true road game while the Cowboys lost by 12 to them on a neutral.

New Mexico is 7-0 ATS vs. good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Cowboys are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Wyoming is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  Take New Mexico Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Baylor/Iowa State UNDER 132.5

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cyclones rank 279th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted defense this season.  The Cyclones are holding opponents to 56.9 points per game and 38.5% shooting, holding them to 16.4 points per game less than their season averages.

Baylor doesn't play that fast ranking 127th in adjusted tempo and will be forced to play at Iowa State's pace with this game being on the road.  The Bears are expected to be without LJ Cryer (14.9 PPG), which is a big blow to them offensively.  The Cyclones will be without one of their best shooters in Aljaz Kunc (8.5 PPG, 35.9% 3-pointers) for this one.

The UNDER is 14-3 in Cyclones last 17 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Cyclones last nine home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bears last five games overall.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Cyclones last 12 games vs. good offensive teams that average 77-plus points per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on College of Charleston -2.5

Charleston is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 13-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to North Carolina.  They have beaten the likes of Richmond, Davidson, Colorado State, VA Tech and Kent State so it's not like they have played a soft schedule, either.

They have played the 193rd-ranked schedule which is tougher than Towson's 236th-ranked schedule.  Towson is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall with bad losses to Navy at home as a 7.5-point favorite, Northern Iowa by 17 as a 5.5-point favorite on a neutral and by 10 at Bryant as a 1-point dog.

Charleston is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  Charleston is 43-15 ATS in its last 58 December road games.  The Cougars are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall, including 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a loss, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  The Cougars need to be bigger favorites here.  Roll with Charleston Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -1.5

Clemson is 10-3 this season with two losses coming by a combined 5 points.  The Tigers have a tremendous home-court advantage as they are 7-0 at home this season and scoring 81.0 points per game at home.  They'll be excited to be playing their first home game since December 7th whlile coming off two of their most complete games of the season, beating Richmond by 28 on a neutral as 2-point favorites and topping Georgia Tech by 13 on the road as 1.5-point favorites.

NC State has only played one true road game all season.  The Wolf Pack lost that game 73-80 at Miami as 4.5-point dogs.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 1.5-point road underdogs in their second true road game of the season.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  Clemson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive games with 19 or more assists.  They are sharing the ball well right now which is a big reason they are coming off two of their most impressive performances of the season.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. up-tempo teams that average at least 62 shots per game.  Take Clemson Friday.

20* Colorado/Stanford Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -2

Stanford is just 5-7 this season and favored tonight over Colorado.  The reason is simple.  They have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and are better than their record, and we are actually getting them at a great value tonight due to that poor record.

Stanford has faced the 17th-toughest schedule in the country.  Their seven losses have come to Wisconsin, San Diego State, Ole Miss, Memphis, UCLA, ASU and Texas with all seven losses coming by 14 points or fewer.

Colorado is 8-5 against the 84th-ranked schedule and has played a home-heavy schedule.  The Buffaloes have only played two true road games this season.  They lost both, including a 74-83 upset loss at Grambling as 14.5-point favorites and a 63-73 loss at Washington as 1-point favorites.

The Buffaloes are 29-59-1 ATS in their last 89 road games.  Colorado is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and playing well heading into this one.  Take Stanford Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee/Ole Miss UNDER 131.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team.  They play slower than average and rank 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They allow just 52.7 points per game and 32.9% shooting, holding opponents to 20.7 points per game less than their season averages.  They also only shoot 41.8% as a team including 33% from 3-point range.

Ole Miss ranks 250th in adjusted tempo and plays even slower than Tennessee.  The Rebels rank 52nd in adjusted defense.  They are holding opponents to 63.5 points per game and 40.5% shooting, limiting them to 9.7 points per game less than their season averages.  They shoot just 44.6% as a team including 31.4% from 3-point range.

I expect both teams to be rusty on offense coming back from Christmas Break, but for both teams to be locked in defensively and giving big effort in this SEC opener.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Vols last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Rebels last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +8.5

Southern Miss is one of the most underrated teams in the country.   The Golden Eagles are 11-1 SU this season with their lone loss by 2 points.  They are also 8-1 ATS in their lined games.

Amazingly, Southern Miss has done its best work in true road games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in true road games with an upset win at Vanderbilt by 12 as 16-point dogs, an upset win at Liberty by 4 as 11.5-point dogs and a blowout win at Lamar by 26 as 13.5-point favorites.

This is a terrible spot for UNLV.  They just had their 10-game winning streak to start the season snapped with a 73-75 home loss to San Francisco as 6-point favorites.  I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because they tend to be flat their next game out since they aren't trying to keep a streak alive.  It's the kind of loss that could easily beat the Rebels twice, let alone having to win by 9 points or more to beat us tonight.

The Golden Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  The Rebels won't have much of a home-court advantage at all tonight with a game this close to Christmas, and their home court is being factored into this line too much, especially considering how good the Golden Eagles have been on the road.  Take Southern Miss Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Yale -13.5

The Yale Bulldogs are one of the best mid-majors in the country.  They are 9-3 this season with their three losses all coming on the road to the three best teams they have played in Colorado by 3 as 9-point dogs, Butler by 10 as 6.5-point dogs and Kentucky by 10 as 16-point dogs.  The Bulldogs have won the majority of their games in blowouts with seven of their nine wins coming by 13 points or more.

Now they face one of the worst teams in the country in Monmouth.  The Hawks are 1-11 SU & 4-8 ATS this season and getting outscored by 21.9 points per game.  Nine of their 11 losses have come by 15 points or more, so it's not asking much of Yale to cover this 13.5-point spread.  They are coming off a 34-point home loss to Charlotte.

The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Yale Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia Tech +1.5

Wrong team favored here.  Georgia Tech has a big home-court advantage this season going 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 20.5 points per game.  Clemson is 0-1 in true road games this season with a loss at terrible South Carolina.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series with the home team going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Georgia Tech has owned Clemson recently going 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  

The Tigers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Yellow Jackets are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after committing 11 or fewer turnovers in three consecutive games.  Josh Pastner is 19-8 ATS in home games with a line of +3 to -3 as the coach of the Yellow Jackets.  Take Georgia Tech Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kent State -3.5

Kent State is the most underrated team in the country.  The Golden Flashes are 8-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their lined games this season.  Their three losses came at Gonzaga by 7 as 16-point dogs, at Houston by 5 as 19-point dogs and at College of Charleston by 2 as 2.5-point dogs.  Those losses alone show how good this team is without even going through their wins.

Now they take on a New Mexico State team that should be no match for them.  The Aggies are 6-4 this season with losses to St. Mary's by 13, to UC Irvine by 17, to UTEP by 3 and to Santa Clara by 1.  The six wins came against inferior competition.  This will be their toughest test of the season with the exception of that road loss at St. Mary's.

The Golden Flashes are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  The Aggies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on St. John's/Villanova UNDER 146.5

This is a pace war tonight.  St. John's likes to play fast, while Villanova ranks ranks 349th in the country in adjusted tempo and likes to play at a snail's pace.  The home team usually controls the tempo, so this game will be played at Villanova's pace.

Villanova's last four games have seen 136, 129, 133 and 135 combined points.  This is a very high total for any game involving Villanova.  We saw St. John's play one true road game at Iowa State against another team that likes to play at a slow pace.  That game saw just 131 combined points in a 71-60 victory for the Cyclones.

The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between Villanova and St. John's.  Each of the last eight meetings have seen 144 or fewer combined points, including 139 or fewer in seven of them.  Enough said.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Illinois +33

Iowa moved this game up to a 3:30 EST start time due to snow in the forecast today.  That will take away their usual home-court advantage at night.  I think they just want to get in and get out with a win today and won't be concerned about getting margin.

That's going to make it really difficult for the Hawkeyes to cover this 33-point spread.  Not to mention, the Hawkeyes remain without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG), who is out until at least January.

Eastern Illinois is just 3-9 SU but 5-4-1 ATS and has not lost a single game by this kind of margin yet.  Their largest loss came by 30 at Illinois in the season opener, and if they can stay within 30 of Illinois, they can stay within 33 of Iowa without Murray.  They also only lost by 22 at Ohio State, another Big Ten opponent that is better than Iowa.  

They covered the spread in both of those games and will improve to 3-0 ATS against Big Ten teams with this inflated number.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Take Eastern Illinois Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Marquette/Providence UNDER 149.5

Both Marquette and Providence rank inside the Top 100 in adjusted defense.  The Golden Eagles are allowing 67.6 points per game on 42.6% shooting this season, while the Friars are allowing 67.2 points per game on 41.9% shooting.

The head-to-head history really jumps out and shows that this 149.5-point total is too high.  Indeed, Marquette and Providence have combined for 148 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, and 148 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 138.6 combined points per game at the end of regulation in their last eight meetings.

Providence is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games following an upset win as an underdog.  We're seeing just 126.5 combined points per game in this spot.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Western Michigan/Iowa State UNDER 130

The Iowa State Cyclones are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 257th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted defense this season.  They are holding opponents to just 56.9 points per game and 38.5% shooting, holding them to 17.9 points per game less than their season averages.  They are only scoring 70.7 points per game, too.

Western Michigan plays at an even slower pace than Iowa State, ranking 260th in adjusted tempo.  They are a terrible offensive team ranking 281st in adjusted offense.  They are averaging 3.5 points per game less than their opponents allow on the season.

The UNDER is 14-2 in Iowa State's last 16 games overall, including 9-1 this season.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Cyclones last nine games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Cyclones last 21 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Broncos last four games overall.  This is early 1:00 EST start time which will have both teams half asleep as well, which favors the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Tennessee/Arizona ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -3.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 9-1 this season with wins over Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Indiana all on neutrals.  Their lone loss came on the road.  The Wildcats are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 27.4 points per game.

Now they host a Tennessee team that is also 9-1 but hasn't played a true road game yet.  I always like fading teams when they play their first true road game.  It will be a tremendous atmosphere and home-court advantage tonight for the Wildcats with a rowdy crowd with this 10:30 EST tip.  It will easily be the toughest atmosphere the Vols will have played in this season.

Plays on home teams (Arizona) - after covering as a double-digit favorite, in a game involving two teams that win more than 80% of their games on the season are 48-24 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  G James (8.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and F Aidoo (4.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG) are both questionable to play for the Vols tonight as well.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +24

This is a terrible spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They have played their last three games against Duke, Iowa State and Wisconsin.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat SE Missouri State as they were those three teams, and they will need to be motivated to cover this big of a number Saturday.

Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is that they will be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) and could be without Ahron Ulis (6.4 PPG), who is questionable.  They just want to get in and get out with a win here Saturday and won't be concerned with getting margin.

We've seen SE Missouri State hang tough against some very good teams this season.  They only lost by 7 at Missouri as 21.5-point dogs a few games back.  They upset South Florida outright as 11-point road dogs, upset Evansville outright as 2-point road dogs and only lost by 13 at Bradley.  They have done their best work in true road games.

The Redhawks are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  The Redhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -3

Marshall won nine consecutive games before finally losing 67-75 at UNC-Greensboro last time out.  I think they'll be refocused with Toledo coming to town this weekend.  Marshall is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.7 points per game.

Toledo has some really bad losses this season and they cannot be trusted.  They lost by 7 at George Mason, by 11 to ECU and by 12 to Missouri-KC.  They also just beat Canisius by 1 as 17-point home favorites last time out.  Toledo ranks just 228th in adjusted defense while Marshall ranks 98th.

Marshall is 6-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Thundering Herd are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Roll with Marshall Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Cornell +9.5

Cornell has been very impressive this season at 7-2 with their two losses coming by 2 at Boston College as 9.5-point dogs and by 2 at Miami as 14.5-point dogs.  They are once again catching too many points today against another ACC team in Syracuse today.

Syracuse has upset losses to Bryant and Colgate at home already this season and also lost to St. John's by 7 and Illinois by 29.  These teams have a common opponent in Monmouth, too.  Cornell won by 18 points on the road at Monmouth, while Syracuse only beat Monmouth by 15 at home.

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games following a home win.  Cornell is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games a an underdog.  The Big Red are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orange are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Cornell Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Sam Houston State -3.5

Sam Houston State is 8-2 this season with its only losses coming to Nevada and Oklahoma State on the road.  They also beat Utah on the road by 10 and Oklahoma on the road, and those wins look really good right now especially after Utah handed Arizona their only loss this season.

Texas State is just 6-5 this season with some very ugly losses.  The most alarming was last time out when they lost 65-71 at home to Mary Hardin Baylor.  They also lost to Hawaii, Rice, UTSA and Washington State all by 5 points or more.

Sam Houston State has played the 31st-toughest schedule in the country while Texas State has played the 253rd-ranked schedule.  Texas State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  Sam Houston ranks 34th in adjusted defense while Texas State ranks 203rd.  Take Sam Houston State Saturday.

20* Houston/Virginia ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars are legitimately one of the top teams in the country this season.  They are 10-1 with their only loss coming to Alabama after blowing a double-digit lead.  They rank 29th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense.

Virginia is getting too much respect from the books right now after an 8-0 start.  But the Cavaliers have been squeaking by of late beating Michigan by 2 as 4.5-point favorites, Florida State by 5 as 18-point favorites and James Madison by 5 as 12.5-point favorites in their last three games coming in.

Virginia's luck runs out today against the best team they have faced yet in Houston.  I think the Cavaliers will be rusty because they haven't played since December 6th with 10 days off in between games.  Virginia will be without Reece Beekman (27 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) for the first time this season after he was injured against James Madison.

Houston crushed Virginia 67-47 at home last season.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following four or more consecutive wins.  Houston is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a SU home win where they failed to cover.  The Cougars are a ridiculous 42-12-1 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS loss.  The Cavaliers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Houston Saturday.

20* Indiana/Kansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kansas -5

The Kansas Jayhawks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall two of the most impressive performances of any team this season.  They beat Seton Hall 91-65 as 10-point home favorites and beat Missouri 95-67 as only 3.5-point road favorites.

Now the Jayhawks are only 5-point home favorites over the Indiana Hoosiers in one of the best venues for college basketball at home.  Indiana lost by 14 to Arizona on a neutral and by 15 at Rutgers in two of their last three games, which doesn't bode well for them being able to hang with the Jayhawks today.

Kansas has played the 39th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 170th.  Kansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games after winning three of its last four games.  Plays against road teams (Indiana) - after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game against an opponent that is coming off three straight wins by 15 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Ohio +13.5

The Ohio Bobcats are 5-4 this season with only a 1-point loss at Belmont as 6-point dogs and a 4-point loss in OT to Michigan as 14.5-point dogs.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall, which includes an impressive upset road win at Youngstown State as 4.5-point dogs last time out.

Florida already has four losses this season.  They lost outright as 12-point home favorites to FAU, lost by 7 to Xavier on a neutral, lost by 29 to WVU on a neutral and lost by 21 to UConn at home.  I don't think they have any business being 13.5-point favorites over Ohio given those results.

Keep in mind this isn't a true home game for Florida as it is being played on a neutral in Tampa, so they won't have their normal home-court advantage.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Ohio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a road win.  The Bobcats are 41-15 ATSin their last 56 games following two consecutive games as road underdogs.  Florida is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio Wednesday.

20* Memphis/Alabama ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Memphis +8

The Memphis Tigers always start slow and then get better as the season goes on.  That's likely due to many new faces every year with the elite talent Penny Hardaway recruits.  They started 2-2 this season but have since gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over Nebraska by 12, Ole Miss by 11 and their most impressive win being a 9-point victory over Auburn, handing the Tigers their first loss of the season.

I think this is a terrible spot for Alabama.  They are coming off a big comeback win at No. 1 ranked Houston, pulling off the upset as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they return home and will be fat and happy following that victory.

Last year, Memphis beat Alabama 92-78 as 3.5-point home underdogs.  Now Memphis is catching 8 points on the road in the rematch this season.  This is simply too many points in a game that is likely going to come down to the final possession or two.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after playing a game as an underdog.  It is coming back to lose outright by 5.1 points per game in this spot.  Memphis is 41-19 ATS in its last 60 games following an upset win a an underdog.  The Tigers are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points.  Memphis is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Crimson Tide are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Bet Memphis Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Marshall -2

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with all nine victories coming by 9 points or more.  They are laying too short of a number against UNC-Greensboro tonight.

UNC-Greensboro is just 4-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  They are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging 65.4 points per game on 39.4% shooting.  I don't see how they can keep up with Marshall, which averages 82.1 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  

And it's not like the Thundering Herd are poor defensively.  They allow 38.9% shooting and are holding opponents to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages.  Greensboro holds opponents to 6.5 points per game less than their season averages and 41.5% shooting.  These teams are similar defensively, but there's a big discrepancy on offense.

Greensboro is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Spartans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Marshall Tuesday.

20* Wisconsin/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin +4.5

Iowa got away with being without their best player on Thursday in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) in a 75-56 win over Iowa State in a game that closed Iowa -3.  Iowa State shot 3-of-22 (14%) from 3-point range while Iowa shot 12-of-23 (52%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen against Wisconsin.

Iowa's luck runs out today against a Wisconsin team that is 7-2 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  The Badgers have wins over Maryland, Marquette, USC and Stanford.  Their two losses both came down to the wire in OT to Kansas by 1 and to Wake Forest by 3.  So they haven't lost by this margin yet this season.  And without Murray again, the Hawkeyes aren't going to get margin on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Wisconsin Sunday.

15* Maryland/Tennessee FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 135

Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They don't play particularly fast ranking 169th in pace, either.  The Vols are holding opponents to 51.2 points per game on 32.7% shooting, holding opponents to 21.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Maryland ranks 240th in adjusted tempo and likes to play slow.  The Terrapins are 8-1 this season in large part due to ranking 32nd in adjusted defense.  They are holding opponents to 61.3 points per game on 39.5% shooting, holding opponents to 10.0 points per game less than their season averages.

Tennessee is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games coming off two consecutive home games.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Vols' last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kevin Willard is 52-29 UNDER vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less as a head coach.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -4.5

Youngstown State is 7-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road.  They are 3-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 32.7 points per game.  I think they are laying too short of a number here to Ohio.

Ohio is 0-4 SU in true road games this season and losing by 8.2 points per game.  And it's not like they've faced a murder's row on the road with the losses coming to Detroit, Belmont, Marshall and Michigan.

Ohio is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Youngstown State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

20* Arizona/Indiana FOX No-Brainer on Arizona PK

I think we are getting the Arizona Wildcats cheap at a PK today because they have failed to cover six of their last seven games overall.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on them as it's the first time all season they haven't been favored, and they have played a brutal schedule that has included Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Utah already.

Indiana has benefited from a much softer schedule with their best wins coming over Xavier and a banged-up UNC team.  They lost by 15 at Rutgers for their lone defeat, and they benefited from Nebraska being without one of their best players last game.  This is easily the toughest test of the season for Indiana.

This game is listed as a neutral, but no question the Wildcats will have the home-court advantage with more fans there with this game being played in Las Vegas.  Arizona has played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 269th-toughest.  Jalen Hood-Schifino (8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.1 APG) is questionable for the Hoosiers.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* Kansas/Missouri ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -3

I've been looking for spots to fade this Missouri Tigers team because they are overvalued due to their 9-0 record.  They have benefited from playing the 360th-ranked schedule in the country.  Now they take on a Kansas team that has played the 71st-toughest schedule in the country.

I faded Missouri with success last game as they struggled to even get by SE Missouri State 96-89 as a 21.5-point favorite.  And now I'll fade them again here against easily the toughest opponent they have faced to date in Kansas.  The previous toughest was Wichita State, and they needed OT to beat them.

Kansas has wins over Duke, NC State, Wisconsin and Seton Hall (by 26) already this season.  Their lone loss came against a very good Tennessee team.  Kansas beat Missouri 102-65 at home last season.  The favorite is now 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Memphis/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -1

Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job at Auburn.  The Tigers are off to another great start this season at 8-0 SU.  I know it hasn't come against the most difficult schedule, but that's why were are getting them cheap here at basically a PK against the Memphis Tigers.

I trust Pearl more than Penny Hardaway, who just hasn't been able to get the most out of the talent on hand unlike Pearly.  Memphis already has two losses this season to Saint Louis and Seton Hall, and Auburn beat Saint Louis.  Seton Hall has lost by 26 to Kansas, by 16 to Iowa, by 13 to Oklahoma and lost outright to Siena, so that loss looks really poor now.

Auburn is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following seven or more consecutive wins.  Memphis is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 December games.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Washington State/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -1.5

The UNLV Rebels are 9-0 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  This game against Washington State is listed as a neutral site venue, but it will basically be a home game for the Rebels being played at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.  Fans will come out in droves to watch this team try and keep their perfect record alive today.

Washington State is just 4-4 this season with its four wins coming against Texas State, Eastern Washington, Detroit and Northern Kentucky where they were substantial favorites in all four games.  They even lost outright as favorites to Utah, Boise State and Prairie Vie A&M.  They also lost by 14 at Oregon with three of their four losses coming by double-digits.  This team is way overvalued this season.

The Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Washington State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with UNLV Saturday.

15* SDSU/Saint Mary's ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -1

The San Diego State Aztecs have a tremendous fan base and will have the home-court advantage despite this being played on a neutral in Phoenix.  Fans are excited about this team, and for good reason as the Aztecs are 7-2 this season with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in Arizona and Arkansas.

The Aztecs also have wins over BYU, Stanford and Ohio State and have played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country.  St. Mary's is 7-3 this season against the 99th-ranked schedule.  They have upset losses to Washington and New Mexico already this season.  Their best wins are over Missouri State, Vanderbilt and North Texas.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (San Diego State) - off a SU home win but ATS loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 73-36 (67%) ATS since 1997.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take San Diego State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Purdue/Nebraska UNDER 138

Purdue ranks 265th in adjusted tempo and 29th in adjusted defense.  Nebraska ranks 266th in adjusted tempo and 73rd in adjusted defense.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, and Nebraska's improvement defensively this season is not being factored into these totals enough.

Purdue is holding opponents to 11.5 points per game less than their season averages.  Nebraska is holding opponents to 5.9 points per game less than their season averages.  They just held Creighton to 53 points in an upset victory two games back.

Guard Mason Gillis (5.7 PPG, 44.4% 3-pointers) is questionable for Purdue while G Sam Griesel (11.3 PPG, 35.7% 3-pointers) is questionable for Nebraska today after sitting out at Indiana.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Boilermakers last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Cornhuskers last 11 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Iowa FS1 No-Brainer on Iowa State +5.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are legit.  They are 7-1 this season with their lone loss coming to Connecticut, which may be the best team in the country at 10-0.  They have upset wins over UNC and Villanova and also handed St. John's their only loss of the season, 71-60.

The Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes 73-53 at home last season.  Iowa isn't as good as they were last season, and they could be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG).  He was seen in a walking boot on Wednesday after suffering an injury early against Duke, but playing through it in a 62-74 loss on Tuesday.  Now the Hawkeyes are in a terrible spot playing their 2nd game in 3 days after having to travel back from Madison Square Garden where they played Duke in the Jimmy V Classic.  

Murray was clearly hobbled as he went 3-for-9 for 8 points against the Blue Devils and wasn't nearly as aggressive as he usually is.  With Murray at anything less than 100%, the Hawkeyes should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Cyclones, let alone favored at all.  Iowa has been exposed when stepping up in class losing by 12 to Duke and by 13 to TCU against their two best opponents thus far.

Iowa State has had the last three days off and will the fresher, more prepared team.  Their defense travels as they rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency.  They are holding opponents to 37.3% shooting overall and 26.3% from 3-point range while allowing only 56.7 points per game.  They are holding opponents to 17.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover two of its last three games.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* UConn/Florida ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4.5

The UConn Huskies are legitimately one of the top teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season with all nine wins coming by double-digits.  That includes wins over Oregon by 24, Alabama by 15 and Iowa State by 18 on neutrals.

The Huskies rank 8th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.  They are +27.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average.  Florida is only +13.8 points per game based on the same criteria, meaning UConn is 14 points better.  Yet they are only 4.5-point road favorites tonight, which is a discount.

Florida already has three losses this season and two of them were very concerning.  They lost outright as a 12-point home favorite to Florida Atlantic and were crushed by 29 by West Virginia on a neutral.  They also lost to Xavier by 7 on a neutral.  Their six wins have all come against overmatched competition with five of the wins coming as double-digits favorites.  When they have stepped up in class they have lost, and now they face their toughest opponent to date.

The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Gators are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Connecticut Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on SE Missouri State ML +105

Both SE Missouri State and IUPU-Fort Wayne sit at 5-4 this season.  The difference is SE Missouri State has played a much tougher schedule and is clearly the better team, thus they should not be home underdogs to Fort Wayne tonight.

The Redhawks upset South Florida and Evansville on the road and Boston on a neutral.  They only lost by 13 at Bradley and by 7 at Missouri as 21.5-point dogs, a Missouri team that remains undefeated this season.  They have only played two home games, which resulted in wins by 37 and 36 points.

The Mastadons have already played five home games and actually were upset by Detroit, and nearly upset by SIU Edwardsville and Oakland.  They are 1-3 on the highway with their only win coming on a neutral as a favorite against lowly Eastern Michigan.

SE Missouri State is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. team that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Redhawks are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  The Mastadons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take SE Missouri State on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* CBB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Pennsylvania +14.5

Pennsylvania is catching too many points tonight.  The only blowout road losses they suffered came early in the season at Iona and at West Virginia.  Their other four losses have all come by 7 points or fewer, including a 7-point loss at Missouri which remains undefeated.

Villanova is way down this season and should not be laying 14.5-points to Pennsylvania, which is probably the best team in the Ivy League when at full strength, which they are right now.  The Wildcats are just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  Their three wins came over LaSalle by 13, Delaware State by 10 and Oklahoma by 3.

So the Wildcats haven't won by this margin all season.  They also suffered upset losses to Temple, Iowa State, Portland and Oregon.  Oddsmakers have not caught up to how poor this team is, and that is clearly the case again tonight listing Villanova as a 14.5-point favorite in a rivalry game here against a potent Pennsylvania squad.

Penn is 71-49 ATS in its last 120 games following two consecutive losses.  The Quakers are 47-24 ATS in their last 71 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game.  The Quakers are 59-27 ATS in their last 86 road games vs. teams that average 33 or fewer rebounds per game.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pennsylvania Wednesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Sam Houston State +10

Sam Houston State is 7-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road at Nevada.  That includes upset road wins at Oklahoma and at Utah as double-digit underdogs.  Oklahoma is 6-2 this season while Utah just beat Arizona to improve to 7-2 this season.  Nevada is also 7-2 this season.

Oklahoma State is clearly vulnerable this season.  The Cowboys were upset at home by Southern Illinois, upset on a neutral by UCF and lost by 10 at UConn.  They also only beat UT-Arlington by 11 at home and DePaul by 4 on a neutral.  Sam Houston State is more than capable of taking the Cowboys to the wire, so catching double-digits here is too much.

Sam Houston State is +11.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Oklahoma State is 15.3 points per game given the same criteria.  So the Cowboys are only +3.4 points per game better than Sam Houston State, thus this line should not be double-digits even when you adjust for home-court advantage.

Sam Houston State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good shooting teams making 45% or better.  Oklahoma State is 0-6 ATS in its last six December home games.  The Bearkats are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games overall, including 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.  Bet Sam Houston State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas-Little Rock +28

Memphis should not be a 28-point favorite over Little Rock tonight.  The Tigers have a way of playing to their level of competition.  They are 6-2 this season but their largest margin of victory has been 19 points.  Now they are asked to lay 28 points to Little Rock.

This despite Little Rock only losing one game by more than 22 points this season despite playing a tough schedule.  They only lost by 19 at Indiana as 28.5-point dogs, and Indiana is better than Memphis.

Memphis is +12.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Little Rock is -10.1 points per game given the same criteria, so 23 points worth than Memphis.  But we don't get to 28 even when adjusting for home-court advantage.  Then you have to factor in the sandwich spot, which shows Memphis coming off a win over Ole Miss and with Auburn on deck Saturday.  They will be looking ahead to that game.

Little Rock is 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Arkansas-Little Rock Tuesday.

15* CBB Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tarleton State +19.5

Tarleton State has been too good this season to be getting this many points even to Baylor.  The Texans are 5-3 this season with upset wins over Belmont by 8 and Boston College by 16.  They three losses all came to three very good teams and were competitive, losing by 3 at Arizona State as 14-point dogs, by 7 to Drake and by 12 at Wichita State.

Baylor is clearly down this season with two losses already, and the six wins mostly coming against overmatched competition with the exception of a 5-point win over UCLA and a 1-point win over Gonzaga.  They also lost by 26 at Marquette and by 7 to Virginia.  Tarleton is the best team they will have faced outside the Power 5 teams, and I think the Texans give them a run for their money tonight.

Tarleton is +5.4 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Baylor is 16.4 points per game given the same criteria, so 11.0 points per game better than Tarleton.  We don't get to 19.5 points even when we adjust for home-court advantage and strength of schedule here, so there's clearly value on the Texans.

Tarleton State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Baylor is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Tarleton State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +10

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 7-3 SU this season with two of their losses coming on the road to Purdue and Iowa State, which are two Top 25 opponents and they were competitive with Iowa State.  They also lost by 4 to St. Thomas at home.

Milwaukee should not be catching double-digits tonight considering they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Chattanooga is 5-3 SU this season with three wins by 11 points or more over Oakland City, Covenant and Gardner Webb.  They aren't blowing out any decent teams as they only beat Murray State by 3 and Tennessee Tech by 7.  They also lost outright to Lipscomb at home.

Milwaukee is +4.2 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Chattanooga is +5 points per game given the same criteria, only 0.8 points per game better than Milwaukee.  This line should be much closer to PK than 10.  Milwaukee is 7-0 ATS in its last seven December road games.  Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Kent State +15

Kent State is the most underrated team in the country. The Golden Flashes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-0 ATS this season.  Their two losses came by 2 at College of Charleston as a 2.5-point dog and by 5 at Houston as 19-point dogs.  Houston is 8-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Charleston is 8-1 and also one of the most underrated teams in the country.

If Kent State can play with Houston on the road, it can play with Gonzaga on the road.  Keep in mind the six wins by Kent State have all come by 15 points or more this season, too.  The Golden Flashes are +14.9 points per game versus what their opponents average on offense and defense this season.

Gonzaga is +17.4 points per game given the same criteria, which means they'd only be favored by 2.5 points over Kent State on a neutral if you don't adjust for strength of schedule.  But the Bulldogs are 15-point home favorites here, which is way too high given what we've seen from them thus far.

Gonzaga is one of the most overrated teams in the country at 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS despite being favored in every game but one this season, which was a 19-point loss at Texas.  They only beat Xavier by 4 and Michigan State by 1, while also losing by 16 to Purdue and by 1 to Baylor.  They have played a tough schedule for once early in the season, and they have been exposed.  This is one of the worst Gonzaga teams we've seen in years.

The Golden Flashes are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Kent State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  The Bulldogs are 3-12-2 ATS n their last 18 games overall.  Gonzaga is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Kent State Monday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nebraska/Creighton OVER 141

Creighton is an elite offensive team that is coring 81.7 points per game on 49.8% shooting this season.  The Bluejays will carry the heavy lifting in helping us cash this OVER ticket.  The Huskers average 70.7 points per game on 46.7% shooting an can do their part, too.

My favorite angle on this play is the head-to-head history.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings as Creighton and Nebraska have combined for 146, 172, 171 and 179 points in the last four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 167 combined points per game, which is 26 points more than this 141-point total.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +22

It's time to 'sell high' on the Missouri Tigers.  They are 8-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  They have played seven home games against bottom feeders and earned an 88-84 win at Wichita State last time out.  It's now a sandwich spot for the Tigers with Kansas on deck.

I think the Tigers will be flat for this one, and I think SE Missouri State is good enough to hang within 22 points today.  They are 5-3 on the season which includes an upset win at South Florida as an 11-point dog, an upset win at Evansville as a 2-point dog and a 13-point loss at Bradley.  They haven't lost a game by more than 16 points this season.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Missouri) - after covering five or six of their last seven, a top team (80% or better) against a good team (60% to 80%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Redhawks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Redhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on North Carolina +1

This is a great 'buy low' opportunity on the UNC Tar Heels.  They were the No. 1 ranked team in the country until losing three straight to Iowa State, Alabama and Indiana.  Now we are getting them as underdogs to a Virginia Tech team that will be a big step down in class for the Tar Heels.

Virginia Tech is 7-1 against one of the easiest schedule in the country.  They lost to College of Charleston, and their seven wins have come against Delaware State, Lehigh, William & Mary, Old Dominion (by 4), Penn State (by 2), Charleston Southern (by 5) and Minnesota.  This will be their toughest test yet, and it's worth noting UNC beat College of Charleston by 16.

Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with North Carolina Sunday.

20* St. John's/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. John's +7

Iowa State has been overvalued since an upset win over then-No. 1 UNC and also an upst win over Villanova the game prior.  Well, both those blue bloods are down this season as UNC has lost three straight, and Villanova is 3-5 this season.

The Cyclones have since failed to cover two in a row losing by 18 to UConn as 5.5-point dogs and only beating a bad North Dakota team by 19 as 24.5-point favorites.  They should not be favored by 7 over St. John's today.

The Red Storm are 8-0 this season with wins over Syracuse, Temple and Nebraska.  I know they have played the easier schedule, but this is a veteran team that got some great transfers and is better than they are getting credit for here with this lack of respect as 7-point dogs.

St. John's is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  Bet St. John's Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Dakota +16

Portland just got to play Michigan State, Villanova and UNC in a tournament in Portland.  They were flat in their 100-79 win over Multnomah Bible in the game following that tournament, and I still think they'll be lacking motivation here against North Dakota to win this game by margin.

North Dakota is playing very well of late.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset Elon as 6.5-point road dogs, upset Utah Tech by 15 as 3.5-point home dogs, upset CS-Fullerton by 16 as 5.5-point dogs and covered in a 19-point loss at Iowa State as 24-point dogs.

Portland is 2-18-1 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Pilots are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after a combined score of 165 points or more.  The Fighting Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take North Dakota Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2.5

Missouri State has only played two home games this season.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the country and won their two home games by an average of 29.5 points per game.  Now they play their MVC home opener against Bradley, which is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS away from home this season and losing by 18.0 points per game.

Bradley lost by 22 at Utah State, by 21 on a neutral to Auburn and by 11 on a neutral to Liberty.  Missouri State beat a very good Middle Tennessee team by 24 at home.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as Missouri State is 21-5 SU in its last 26 home meetings with Bradley.  The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Braves with three wins by 15 points or more.

The Braves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Bradley is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bears are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +10.5

Pacific has some impressive results despite the 3-5 record.  They only lost by 10 at Stanford as 15-point dogs, upset North Dakota State as 5.5-point road dogs and crushed North Dakota by 30 on the road.  They also upset Cal Davis as 6-point road dogs, so they have played their best away from home going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS.  Their four home losses all came by 4 point or less, too, so they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points this season.

Now they are catching double-digits here against a UC-Santa Barbara team that is clearly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost outright by 9 as 9-point favorites at Northern Arizona, only won by 13 over Hampton as 17.5-point home favorites, won by 18 over North Alabama as 18-point home favorites, and lost by 11 at Duquesne as 3.5-point dogs.

Pacific beat UC-Santa Barbara 80-71 as 4.5-point home dogs in their lone meeting last season.  The Gauchos are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pacific Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Providence/Rhode Island UNDER 133

Providence ranks 265th in adjusted tempo this season while Rhode Island ranks 197th.  Both like to play in the half court.  And with this being a rivalry game, the defensive intensity will be maxed out, thus I think we get an UNDER here.

Rhode Island is really struggling on offense this season.  The score 62.9 points per game on 37.4% shooting including 24.6% from 3-point range.  They only average four made 3-pointers per game.  They rank 261st in adjusted offense.  But they do defend well, holding opponents to 64.7 points per game on 41.6% shooting.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 118, 136 and 109 points.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Friars last four games following a loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Arizona/Utah Pac-12 ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -6.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 6-0 this season behind an elite offense that is scoring 97.5 points per game on 60.3% shooting and 45% from 3-point range.  The Wildcats rank 3rd in adjusted offense and 1st in adjusted tempo and will run the Utah Utes out of the gym tonight.  They are also 43rd in adjusted defense.

Utah is off to a 5-2 start this season against a much softer schedule than Arizona has faced.  They lost to Mississippi State on a neutral and only beat Georgia Tech by 4 on a neutral.  But the concerning loss was the 10-point home loss to Sam Houston State as 10-point favorites.  And I give them zero chance of hanging around with the Wildcats in this one.

Arizona crushed Utah in both meetings last season winning 82-64 at home as 19-point favorites and 97-77 on the road as 11-point favorites.  So when comparing the spreads of both meetings last season, we are getting a discount here on the Wildcats as only 6.5-point road favorites.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Indiana -4

Southern Indiana has been impressive this season going 3-3 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  They only lost by 6 at Missouri as 19.5-point dogs, by 12 at Notre Dame as 14.5-point dogs and by 14 at St. Bonaventure.  They also went on the road and upset Bowling Green by 12, upset Southern Illinois by 18 at home as 9.5-point dogs and crushed Loras by 32.

Western Illinois opened the season with an upset win at Illinois State and a blowout home win over Rockford.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS since with a 12-point loss at DePaul, a 33-point loss at UCF, a 24-point home loss to Youngstown State and an upset road loss at UTRGV.  They aren't very good.

Southern Indiana is +4.6 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow this season, while Western Illinois is -7.5 points per game.  So Southern Indiana is +12.1 points per game better than Western Illinois, and that doesn't even factor in their much tougher strength of schedule.  Southern Indiana should be much closer to a 10-point favorite tonight.

Western Illinois is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games overall, including 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.  This team has almost zero home-court advantage with how terrible they have been.  Roll with Southern Indiana Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/Iowa State UNDER 133

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team again this season.  The Cyclones rank 237th in adjusted tempo and 29th in defensive efficiency.  They play a North Dakota team tonight that also prefers to slow it down ranking 273rd in adjusted tempo.  This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight.

Iowa State is holding opponents to 16.6 points per game less than their season averages this season.  The Cyclones are holding foes to 37.8% shooting, which is nearly 8% less than their season averages.  Iowa State only shoots 29.7% from 3-point range this season and isn't a good shooting team.

Iowa State is 17-5 UNDER in its last 22 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Cyclones last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Cyclones last five home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on VCU PK

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the VCU Rams tonight.  They are 4-2 SU but 0-5 ATS this season with their two losses coming to Memphis and Arizona State.  The Rams are 3-0 at home this season and winning by 11.7 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, so this is a gift getting them at a PK against Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is a rebuilding team that lost their best player in Scotty Pippen Jr. (20.4 PPG) from last season.  They are off to a 3-3 start this season with home losses to Memphis and Southern MIss as well as a neutral loss to St. Mary's.  All three losses came by 9 points or more.  Their three wins have come against Temple, Fresno and Morehead State.  They also have four players questionable due to injury or illness tonight.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

15* Wyoming/Santa Clara Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Santa Clara -7

I like this Santa Clara team.  They are off to a 5-2 SU & 4-2 ATS start this season with all five wins coming by 8 points or more including neutral court wins over DePaul by 8 and Iona by 10.  Their two losses came on a neutral to UCF and on the road at Utah State.  They are 3-0 at home this season and are an elite offensive team.

But as much as I like Santa Clara, this is more of a play against Wyoming than anything.  They are without their two best players tonight in Hunter Maldanado (18.7 PPG last year, 14.7 PPG this year) and Graham Ike (19.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG last year).  They also could be without their second-leading scorer this season in Max Agbonkpolo (9.6 PPG), who is questionable today.

It's not wonder Wyoming is off to such a terrible start this season playing the entire way without Ike.  They are 3-3 SU & 0-4 ATS with their three wins coming against Colorado Christian, Nicholls State and Howard.  They lost outright at home as a 21.5-point favorite to SE Louisiana, lost to Drake and lost to Boston College by 11.  I see no way they can keep this game competitive against Santa Clara without Maldanado and Ike.

Santa Clara is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a combined score of 155 points or more.  Wyoming is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Bet Santa Clara Wednesday.

15* Baylor/Marquette FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Marquette +6.5

Marquette is 5-2 this season with its two losses coming to Purdue by 5 on the road and to Mississippi State by 3 on a neutral.  All five wins came by double-digits.  Well, Purdue and Mississippi State are a combined 13-0 this season.  Purdue just beat Duke by 19, Gonzaga by 18 and West Virginia by 12.  That 5-point loss looks real good now.

Baylor should not be a 6.5-point road favorite over Marquette tonight.  The Bears have faced such an easy schedule outside of their split with Virginia and UCLA in their tournament.  They lost to Virginia by 7 and beat UCLA by 5.  This will be the Bears' first true road game this season.

Marquette is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Baylor is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Golden Eagles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Marquette is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with Marquette Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Tarleton State -7

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with a 95-49 win over Kansas Christian, an 89-81 upset win over Belmont and a 70-54 upset win over Boston College.  The Texans then hung tough with Drake in a 7-point loss at 7-point dogs, and that's a Drake team that most expect to win the Missouri Valley.  They did lost by 12 at Wichita State, but now they are back home for just the second time this season and take a big step down in class here against Weber State.

Weber State has been a massive disappointment this season at 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS.  You could see it coming though with just one returning starter and a lack of experience.  They lost by 17 at Washington, by 25 at Colorado State, by 7 to Riverside on a neutral and by 22 to Wright State on a neutral.  I have a hard time seeing them stay within 7 points of Tarleton State on the road given those results.

Tarleton State is +8.8 points per game when comparing what their opponents typically score and give up on the season, while Weber State is -4.0 points per game.  So Tarleton would be a 12.8-point favorite on a neutral based on those numbers, and they're at home here.  The Texans have played the 18th-toughest schedule in the country while Weber State has played the 76th, too.

Weber State is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds last game.  The Wildcats are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Weber State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.  Take Tarleton State Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sam Houston State +4.5

Sam Houston State is one of the most underrated teams in the country and will prove it again tonight.  The Bearkats are 6-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  That includes a 52-51 upset win at Oklahoma as 16.5-point dogs in the opener as well as a 65-55 win at Utah as 10-point dogs.  

Oklahoma has since reeled off 6 consecutive victories including a tournament win over Ole Miss yesterday, so how good does that win look now?  The Bearkats have avoided letdowns despite those two wins with their other four victories all coming by 31-plus points.  They are outscoring opponents by 33.2 points per game on the season!

Now the Bearkats will go on the road and upset Nevada tonight.  This Nevada team is getitng too much respect for its 6-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start against a pretty weak schedule.  The six wins over come against Utah Tech, Grand Canyon, William Jessup, UT-Arlington, Tulane and Akron.  They lone loss came to the best team they have faced in Kansas State by 9 on a neutral.  I'm not so sure Sam Houston State won't be the best team they have faced to this point.

Sam Houston State is 8-1 ATS in November road games over the last two seasons.  The Bearkats are 9-1 ATS vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  The Wolf Pack are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Bearkats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.  Sam Houston State is 37-16-1 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  Roll with Sam Houston State Monday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Seattle +5.5

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

The Redhawks are off and running with a 5-0 start this season covering the spread in their three lined games.  They won 85-71 at UC-San Diego as 3.5-point road favorites, 106-55 over Puget Sound, 83-71 at home over Portland State as 9.5-point favorites, 80-68 at Portland as 3.5-point dogs and 89-53 over Pacific Lutheran.  Portland just upset Villanova by 12, lost by 8 to UNC and lost by 1 to Michigan State over the weekend, so that 12-point win at Portland looks really good for Seattle now.

Washington is in a letdown spot after an upset win over St. Mary's as 10-point dogs last time out.  Keep in mind this is a Washington team that lost outright to Cal Baptist as 8-point home favorites, only beat Utah Tech by 11 as 16.5-point home favorites and only beat North Florida by 8 as 16.5-point home favorites.  So that upset win over St. Mary's was an aberration.  I think Seattle is the better team here and should not be the underdog.

Washington is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference home games.  Victor is 6-0 ATS in November games as the coach of Seattle.  Hopkins is 1-10 ATS in home games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game as the coach of Washington.  Bet Seattle Monday.

15* Iowa State/UConn ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 136

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  They play at one of the slowest paces in the country, play some of the best defense in the country, and struggle on offense.  They are holding opponents to 17 points less than their season averages on the season.

Connecticut is also an elite defensive team which has been the key to its 7-0 start this season.  The Huskies are holding opponents to 13 points less than their season averages.  This game has the makings of a defensive struggle to say the least.

Iowa State is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Cyclones last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Cyclones last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cyclones last seven games following an ATS win.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pennsylvania -3.5

The Penn Quakers were expected to be the best team in the Ivy League this season because they returned five starters including three double-digit scorers and all of their top reserves.  They weren't healthy to start the season and lost four of their first five games against a brutal schedule with the four losses coming to Iona, Missouri, Towson and West Virginia.

But they have since gotten healthy and gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a road win over Lafayette 74-68 as 5.5-point favorites, a 75-55 home win over Hartford as 19-point favorites and an 81-69 home win over Colgate as 4-point dogs.  Now they host Delaware and should roll at home here Sunday.

Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, and the Quakers have the better depth which will benefit them.  Keep in mind Delaware only beat Colgate by 4.  They also have lost their two true road games to Air Force by 4 and Duke by 34.  This is a true road game for Delaware, which lost four starters from last season that were all double-digit scorers.

Penn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Quakers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Quakers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  Roll with Penn Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/Oklahoma ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -2

Oklahoma has been undervalued since a 51-52 upset home loss to Sam Houston State in the opener.  That loss doesn't look at bad now considering Sam Houston is 6-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season with the other five wins all coming by double-digits since upsetting the Sooners.

Oklahoma has since gone 5-0 including covers in three of their last four games.  The last two have been very impressive with a 69-56 win over Nebraska as 6.5-point favorites and a 77-64 win over Seton Hall as 2-point dogs.  I think they hand Ole Miss its first loss of the season today.

Ole Miss is overvalued due to a 6-0 start against a very soft schedule.  They only won by 4 over Tennessee-Martin at home and none of their wins have come by more than 15 points despite the soft schedule of Tennessee-Martin, Alcorn State, FAU, Chattanooga, Siena and Stanford.  The Rebels will meet their match today as this is easily their toughest test yet.

The Rebels are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Oklahoma Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +7.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with a 95-49 win over Kansas Christian, an 89-81 upset win over Belmont and a 70-54 upset win over Boston College.  The Texans then hung tough with Drake in a 7-point loss at 7-point dogs, and that's a Drake team that most expect to win the Missouri Valley.  Now the Texans are a 7-point dog to a Wichita State team that lost three double-digit scores and another who averaged 8.4 PPG and 5.0 RPG last season.  

The Shockers returned only one starter and are rebuilding under Isaac Brown, who is 31-19 in his first two seasons here.  Wichita State lost 57-66 as 16-point home favorites to Alcorn State earlier this season and is just 3-2 this year.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Shockers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Tarleton State Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +9

Tim Miles quickly turned around Nebraska.  He's doing the same at San Jose State now, especially with so much veteran experience and his best player returning.  The Spartans are off to a 4-1 start this season with their lone loss to a good Hofstra team.

The Spartans should not be this big of underdogs to North Texas when you look at what the Mean Green have done so far.  They did beat Fresno by 9 and Paul Quinn, but they lost by 30 as 10.5-point dogs to St. Mary's and nearly lost outright to Southern Nazarene in a 53-47 home win.  Those two results are very concerning for this inexperienced team.

The Mean Green are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  North Texas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  San Jose State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home after going over the total in its previous game.  These three trends combine for an 18-0 system backing the Spartans.  Roll with San Jose State Friday.

20* UNC/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina -5

We are getting No. 1 ranked North Carolina at a discount today because they have opened 5-0 SU but only 1-4 ATS.  And they are coming off an 89-81 win over a pesky Portland team as 14.5-point favorites yesterday in what was basically a home game for them being played in Portland.  Now we get the Tar Heels as a single-digit favorite for the first time this season, and we'll take advantage.

Iowa State is overvalued off a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  They played three cupcakes in IUPUI, North Carolina A&T and Wisconsin-Milwaukee to open the season.  They did beat Villanova 81-79 (OT) yesterday, but that's a down Villanova team that already has three upset losses this season.

Now this is a tough spot for Iowa State after needing OT yesterday.  Four starters played more than 35 minutes for the Cyclones yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Tar Heels, who can run them out of the gym and take advantage of their tired legs.

The Tar Heels are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  Bet North Carolina Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -5

Missouri State struck gold in the transfer portal under head coach Dana Ford to reload following a 23-11 season last year.  He brought in seven Division 1 transfers from places like Maryland, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Akron and Colorado State.  This team is loaded again this season.

We saw that play out in their first two games with an 82-47 win over Missouri S&T followed by a very impressive 64-66 loss at BYU as 9.5-point dogs.  They followed that up with a 75-51 win over a very good Middle Tennessee team as 2-point favorites.  They should be more than 5-point favorites over UNC-Wilmington today.

UNC-Wilmington already has three blowout losses to UConn by 26, Oklahoma by 21 and UNC by 13.  Their two wins have come against Allen and Mount Olive.  Missouri State is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite.  The Bears are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a win.  The Seahawks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Missouri State Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -1

Sean Miller is 425-157 as a head coach including 123-48 at Xavier.  He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare.  The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers.  Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.

They are off to a 3-1 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield.  They also lost to Indiana by 2 as 2.5-point dogs.  That's an Indiana team that is also loaded this season and it's not a bad loss.  It will serve them well moving forward

Florida's 3-1 start is much more concerning.  They were double-digit favorites in three of the four games and only a 7-point favorite against a very bad Florida State team in which they won by 9.  But they lost outright at home to FAU as 12-point favorites and only beat lowly Kennesaw State by 10 as 20-point favorites.  It's a rebuilding year for first-year head coach Todd Golden and the Gators.

Golden is 9-24 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game as a head coach.  Miller is 59-35 ATS in road games when playing just his 2nd game in 8 days as a head coach.  Florida is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a win.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Xavier Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Villanova UNDER 131.5

Two teams that play at a snail's pace and play great defense square off today when Iowa State squares off against Villanova.  Iowa State lost their best player to Texas in the transfer portal in Tyrese Hunter, while Villanova is without its best player in Justin Moore until January.

The Cyclones road their defense to the Sweet 16 last year in a miraculous run.  They are defending at a high level again this season, holding their first three opponents to 45.0 points per game and 32.8% shooting.  They should be able to hold this Villanova team in check, too.

Villanova has played a tougher schedule with losses to Michigan State and Temple already.  But they aren't shooting it well at all with a 33.7% clip from 3-point range.  They are in about as poor a shape offensively as they have been in a long time, and a lot of that has to do with Jay Wright retiring.

Villanova is 11-3 UNDER in its last 14 games vs. teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game.  Iowa State is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 non-conference games.  The Wildcats are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games as a neutral court favorite or PK.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cyclones last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Wildcats last 10 neutral site games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Wildcats last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Coastal Carolina +14

Missouri is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Dennis Gates, who brought back just one starter this season.  You wouldn't be able to tell that with their perfect 5-0 record, but that record has them overvalued tonight.

The five wins have come against one of the easiest schedules in the country, and they were nearly upset a couple times.  All five wins came at home over South Indiana (by 6), Penn (by 7), Lindenwood, SIU Edwardsville and Mississippi Valley State.  They were favored by at least 12 points in all five games and only covered two of them.

Coastal Carolina went 19-14 last season under Cliff Ellis, who has spent the past 15 seasons here and has 44 years of experience as a head coach overall.  Ellis welcomes back his best player in Essam Mostafa (13.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG last year) plus two starters.  Mostafa is averaging 16.3 PPG, 13.3 RPG and 2.0 BPG through three games and is a force inside.

The Chanticleers won their first two games by 44 and 63 points against overmatched competition before a 1-point road loss at USC Upstate as 4-point favorites.  They will be refocused and fresh after that narrow defeat playing just their 2nd game in 12 days, getting plenty of practice time to grow together as a team.

I love Eastern Kentucky transfer Jomaru Brown (21.7 PPG, 61.5% 3-pointers) who was a great find in the transfer portal for Ellis.  Linton Brown (16.3 PPG, 42.9% 3-pointers) is also proving to be a good find.  Holdovers Josh Uduje (12.7 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) and Wilfred Likayi (5.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 50% 3-pointers) are also fitting in well with the newcomers.  The Chanticleers are shooting 42% from 3 as a team.

Coastal Carolina is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a SU loss.  The Chanticleers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  The Tigers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a win.  Missouri is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Coastal Carolina Wednesday.

15* Syracuse/St. John's ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on St. John's -3

Mike Anderson is in Year 4 at St. John's and should have his best team yet.  The Red Storm returned three starters this season and added DePaul transfer David Jones.  The Johnnies are off to a 5-0 start this season with four wins by 15 points or more plus a victory over a solid Temple team by 6.  That's a Temple team that has upset wins over Villanova and Rutgers already this season.

Jones (17.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG) is off to a fantastic start in his first season with St. John's.  The three returning starters in Soriano (13.2 PPG, 11.2 RPG), Mathis (11.6 PPG, 55.6% 3-pointers) and Alexander (10.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) are gelling well with Jones, plus Illinois transfer Andre Curbelo (9.8 PPG, 5.8 APG).

Syracuse lost arguably its three best players from a year ago in Buddy Boeheim (19.2 PPG), Cole Swider (13.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Jimmy Boeheim (13.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG).  I question head coach Jim Boeheim's motivation at this point after losing both his kids as he enters his 48th season.

Syracuse lost 80-68 to Colgate as a 7.5-point home favorite already this season for its lone loss, while beating two very bad teams in Lehigh and Northeastern.  The Orange did beat Richmond 74-71 (OT) last night, but that's a rebuilding Spiders team.

After playing an overtime game last night, this is now a brutal spot for the Orange.  They will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, while St. John's will only be playing its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Johnnies like to push the tempo and play relentless defensive, which will test the Orange's tired legs.  All five starters played at least 31 minutes for Syracuse last night, including 42 from Girard III and 40 from Williams.  The Red Storm are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.  Take St. John's Tuesday.

20* Creighton/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Creighton -1

The Creighton Bluejays are ranked in the Top 10 for good reason.  This team is loaded under head coach Greg McDermott.  The Bluejays are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS this season with one of their non-covers coming by half a point.  They just blasted a very good Texas Tech team 76-65 last night.

The Bluejays have four players averaging double figures scoring and three of them shoot 42% or better from 3-point range.  They are tough to defend.  They'll take on a reloading Arkansas team that lost all five starters from a year ago.  The chemistry for the Bluejays can be trusted much more than that of the Razorbacks early in the season.

Arkansas is 4-0 as well but against an extremely soft schedule of North Dakota State, Fordham, South Dakota State and Louisville.  That's the worst Louisville team we've seen in decades as the Cardinals are now 0-4 this season with losses to Appalachian State, Wright State and Belmont.

The Bluejays are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % of .600 or better.  Creighton is 7-0 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  Roll with Creighton Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Northern Arizona +27

I cashed in Texas +1 in a 93-74 victory over Gonzaga in their last game.  But I know a letdown spot when I see one, and this is  the definition of one.  The Longhorns won't be nearly as motivated to beat Northern Arizona as they were to beat Gonzaga.  And that's going to make it difficult for them to cover this massive 27-point spread.

Northern Arizona is no pushover, either.  The Lumberjacks returned all five starters this season and that chemistry is showing early.  They are 2-3 SU but 4-0 ATS against a brutal schedule.  They only lost by 18 at Michigan State as 21-point dogs, by 16 at Arizona State as 16.5-point dogs, and by 4 at Utah Valley State as 10.5-point dogs.

We've seen Michigan State beat Kentucky outright and only lose to Gonzaga by one.  We've seen Arizona State beat Michigan by 25.  So those losses look even better now.  Plus, the Lumberjacks also upset UC-Santa Barbara outright by 9 as 9-point dogs.  This team is grossly undervalued to start the season.

This game won't be played on Texas' home court either as it will be played on a neutral at Bert Ogden Arena in Edinburg, TX.  Texas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games away from home following a win.  Northern Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Longhorns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Roll with Northern Arizona Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska-Omaha +30.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Hawkeyes now as whopping 30.5-point favorites over a decent Nebraska-Omaha team.  The Hawkeyes are coming off an 83-67 upset win at Seton Hall, which is a Pirates team with a first-year head coach and rebuilding.

Now this is a letdown spot for Iowa.  They return home for Thanksgiving Week and won't be nearly as motivated to beat Omaha as they were to beat Seton Hall.  They also the Emerald Coast Classic on deck against Clemson in Florida starting on Friday, so they will be looking ahead to it.  That makes this a sandwich spot for Iowa, and I don't think they'll be 100% focused, which is going to make it very difficult to cover this 30.5-point spread.

Even if the Hawkeyes were focused it would be hard to cover against this pesky Omaha team.  The Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 3-1 ATS against a brutal schedule.  They only lost by 25 at Kansas as 33.5-point dogs and by 14 at Nebraska as 17.5-point dogs while winning and covering against Idaho and losing by 10 to Ball State.  If they can stay within 25 of Kansas on the road, they can certainly stay within 30.5 of Iowa.

Omaha is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Mavericks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Nebraska-Omaha Monday.

20* CBB Tournament GAME OF THE WEEK on Tarleton State +7.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with an 89-81 upset win over Belmont as 4-point underdogs on Friday.  Yesterday the Texans upset Boston College 70-54 as 3.5-point dogs.  That blowout win will keep them fresh for this 3rd game in 4 days, and it will actually only be their 3rd game in 11 days after having seven days off prior to this tournament.

Drake will be playing its 4th game in 8 days.  The Bulldogs have been in three straight battles that went down to the wire too, and fatigue will be a factor as a result.  They beat Wofford 80-72 as 12.5-point favorites, Buffalo 80-72 as 13-point favorites and Wyoming 61-56 as 5-point favorites.  This team is grossly overvalued right now and continues to be as 7.5-point favorites over a Tarleton State team that is more than capable of winning this game outright.  In fact, the Texans are probably the best team the Bulldogs have faced this season.

Drake is 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Drake is 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet Tarleton State Monday.