15* Kansas/Stanford ABC ANNIHILATOR on Stanford +6.5 

The Stanford Cardinal are one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  They are 11-1 this season with their only loss coming to Butler by a single point 67-68 on a neutral. 

The Cardinal have obviously been flying under the radar when you consider they are 9-3 ATS this season.  And now they are catching 6.5 points to what I believe is an overrated Kansas team that does not shoot the 3 ball very well.  They are loaded inside, but they don’t have many shooters. 

Kansas is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games, including 2-11 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.  The Jayhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as home underdogs.  Stanford is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Cardinal are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Bet Stanford Sunday. 

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +14 

Florida International is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 9-3 SU & 6-3 ATS start this season.  They returned four starters from last year and are certainly a contender to win Conference USA this year. 

Florida International’s three losses this season all came by 9 points or less.  And two of those were on the road against Power 5 teams.  They only lost 69-77 as 16.5-point dogs at Mississippi State and 77-86 as 17.5-point dogs at NC State. 

Now, the Golden Panthers are catching 14 points here against a down Minnesota team that is just 6-5 on the season.  The Golden Gophers are coming off back-to-back upset wins over Ohio State and Oklahoma State, and they have Purdue on deck.  That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them today, and I don’t expect them to show up at all. 

Florida International is 25-12-1 ATS in its last 38 games as an underdog.  Minnesota is 10-21 ATS in its last 31 games following an ATS win.  The Golden Gophers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Saturday games.  Bet Florida International Saturday. 

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +18 

The Houston Cougars returned just one starter from a great team last year.  They have been overvalued all season.  They have upset losses to BYU and Oklahoma State at home, and they have struggled to put teams away. 

Portland can hang with Houston.  The Pilots are 8-4 SU & 6-4 ATS this season with their largest loss coming by 11 points.  Terry Porter is doing a good job with this program.  The Pilots only lost by 11 at USC as 23-point favorites, and they pulled the upset at Portland State as 6.5-point dogs. 

The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Pilots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.  Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take Portland Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Evansville +3 

Evansville is off a bad loss at Jacksonville State and will return home highly motivated for a win when they host Murray State today.  This is an Evansville team that upset Kentucky on the road as 24.5-point dogs earlier this season to flash their potential. 

Murray State is just 6-4 this season.  They lost to Drake by 10 and La Salle by 11 on a neutral.  They also lost by 19 at Tennessee and lost at Missouri State.  While Murray State has been great at home, they are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in all games played on the highway. 

Evansville is 9-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Roll with Evansville Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dayton -5 

The Dayton Flyers are clearly one of the best teams in the country.  They are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS with their only loss coming to Kansas, the No. 1 ranked team in the nation.  I expect Dayton to make easy work of Colorado. 

This Colorado team has been disappointing.  They returned all five starters so expectations were high.  And while they are 9-2 SU, they are just 3-7 ATS.  They lost by 14 to Kansas while Dayton only lost by 6 to Kansas.  Colorado was also upset by Northern Iowa at home, and they really don’t have many good wins. 

I like the rest advantage for Dayton in this one.  They have three days’ rest to get ready for Colorado after last playing on Tuesday.  Colorado just played Prairie View A&M at home on Thursday, so they have only had one day to get ready for Dayton.  That’s not enough prep time to get ready to face at team of Dayton’s caliber. 

Colorado is 1-14 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Buffaloes are 1-12 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two years.  Take Dayton Saturday. 

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -3 

This game is technically on a neutral court, but it will definitely feel like a home court for Oklahoma City behind played in Tulsa, Oklahoma.  I think we are getting the Cowboys at a discount today as only 3-point favorites over Minnesota. 

The Gophers are definitely in a letdown spot off their shocking upset home win over Ohio State as 7.5-point dogs.  This is a team that just lost by 20 in their previous game at Iowa, so it came out of nowhere.  They also already have losses to Oklahoma, Butler, Utah and DePaul with five losses on the season.  They aren’t nearly as good as they showed against Ohio State. 

Oklahoma State is 8-2 this season and every bit as good as its record.  The Cowboys beat Syracuse by 14 on a neutral and Ole Miss by 41 on a neutral.  They also upset Houston on the road as 7-point dogs.  They’ve had five days off since that win over Houston and will be ready to go tonight. 

The Golden Gophers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.  Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games off a win.  The Golden Gophers are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 vs. Big 12 opponents.  Minnesota is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset win over a conference opponent as a dog of 6 points or more.  The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday. 

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Akron -4.5 

John Groce has the Akron Zips playing some great basketball this season.  The Zips are off to an 8-2 start this year with their only losses coming by 10 as 12-point dogs at West Virginia and by 6 as 18-point dogs at Louisville.  If they can hang with both those teams, they can hang with anyone. 

Ron Hunter is also doing a great job in his first season at Tulane.  The Green Wave are off to an 8-2 start as well, but their results aren’t nearly as impressive.  They lost by 14 to Mississippi State on a neutral as 10-pint dogs and were blown out by 24 by Saint Louis on a neutral as 4.5-point dogs. 

Tulane is 0-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Akron is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Green Wave are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as an underdog.  Roll with Akron Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on UTEP +12.5 

I’ve made some good money fading Houston this season and I’ll continue to do so for many of the same reasons tonight.  The Cougars are getting treated like the team they were last year, and not the team that returned just one starter this year and is inexperienced. 

Indeed, Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall.  That includes an upset loss as an 11.5-point home favorite to BYU, a 12-point loss at Oregon as 7-point dogs, and a 6-point upset home loss to Oklahoma State as 7-point favorites.  The Cougars also failed to cover in an 8-point home win over Texas-Arlington as 14-point favorites, needed a late comeback to beat Rice by 8 as 13-point road favorites, and failed to cover in an 8-point home win over Texas State as 12.5-point favorites. 

The Cougars couldn’t get margin against all of those teams, and they certainly won’t get margin against one of the most underrated teams in the country in UTEP tonight.  UTEP returned four starters this season, and head coach Rodney Terry is doing a great job.  The Miners are off to an 8-1 start this season with their only loss coming by 3 at New Mexico State as 5.5-point dogs.  They also beat NMSU, New Mexico and UC-Irvine at home, three quality teams. 

The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  UTEP is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Miners are 11-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take UTEP Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona State +1.5 

Bobby Hurley is doing a great job at Arizona State.  He has the Sun Devils off to an 8-2 start this season with their only losses coming to Colorado and Virginia (by 3).  They just beat Georgia by 20 and now I expect them to take down Saint Mary’s tonight. 

The Gaels came into the season overvalued due to returning all five starters.  They have gone 9-2 SU but lost to Winthrop at home and Dayton (by 10).  They are just 4-7 ATS and have had some ugly performances.  They only beat Lehigh by 11 as 20.5-point favorites, Nebraska-Omaha by 9 as 15.5-point favorites and Northern Illinois by 12 as 14-point favorites. 

This will essentially be a home game for Arizona State despite technically being on a neutral.  It’s being played at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix.   

The Sun Devils are 10-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  Arizona State is 11-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last three years.  Roll with Arizona State Wednesday. 

15* Tennessee/Cincinnati ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +1.5 

The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off a shocking loss to Colgate at home.  It was a clearly letdown spot for them after facing rival Xavier in their previous game and losing a heartbreaker.  Now I fully expect the Bearcats to bring their best effort of the season tonight hosting the 21st-ranked Tennessee Vols. 

Tennessee is being priced like it is the team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year.  But the Vols only returned one starter from that squad.  The Vols are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and were just upset at home by rival Memphis as 6-point favorites.  Now the Vols are in a similar flat spot that Cincinnati was just in after facing an in-state rival. 

Plays on any team (Cincinnati) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points in their last seven games against an opponent that went under the total by 42 or more points in their last seven games are 94-51 (64.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Cincinnati Wednesday. 

15* Miami/Temple ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Temple -2 

The Temple Owls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only losses coming to Maryland by 7 on a neutral as 9-point dogs and to Missouri at home.  They have impressive road wins over LaSalle, USC and Texas A&M as well as a dominant neutral site win over Davidson. 

I like how Temple bounced back from that poor loss to Missouri with a 108-61 throttling of rival St. Joe’s as an 11.5-point favorite.  And now the Owls have had a full week to get ready for Miami after last playing on December 10th, giving them six days in between games to prepare. 

Miami only gets two days to get ready for Temple after playing on Saturday in an 88-74 win over Alabama A&M as 26.5-point favorites.  The Gators have some really poor losses this season as they were beaten by 20 by Florida on a neutral and lost by 25 to UConn on a neutral.  They really don’t have a good win on their schedule outside perhaps Illinois. 

Temple is 10-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last three seasons.  Miami is 1-10 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last three years. The Hurricanes are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games, including 0-7 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as an underdog.  The Owls are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 neutral site games.  Roll with Temple Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Florida -4.5 

The Florida Gators started slow this season.  But they’ve turned the corner in going 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with a 20-point win over Miami and a 5-point win over Xavier on a neutral.  Their only loss came on the road at Butler during this stretch. 

Now the Gators have had nine days off since that loss to Butler to get ready for Providence.  They are champing at the bit to hit the court tonight at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.  Meanwhile, Providence only has two days to get ready for Florida after playing Stony Brook on Saturday. 

This is a very poor Providence team.  The Friars are just 6-5 SU & 2-8 ATS this season.  Their six wins have come against Sacred Heart, New Jersey Tech, St. Peters, Merrimack, Pepperdine (by 3) and Stony Brook (by 4).  They lost to Northwestern by 9 as 9-point favorites, lost to Penn by 6 as 15-point favorites, lost outright to Long Beach State as 16-point favorites, lost outright to College of Charleston as 9-point favorites, and weren’t competitive in their 14-point loss at Rhode Island. 

The Gators are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as a favorite.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Florida Tuesday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State +7 

The Houston Cougars lost a ton of talent from last year.  I’ve been fading them with success as they returned just one starter, but are being priced like the team they were last season.  The Cougars are 7-2 but just 3-5 ATS in their lined games. 

Oklahoma State is one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are also 7-2 and returned all five starters from last year.  I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on this team off back-to-back upset losses to Georgetown and Wichita State. 

Those losses followed up impressive showings in an 86-72 upset win over Syracuse on a neutral and a dominant 78-37 win over Ole Miss on a neutral as well.  I have no doubt the Cowboys will be highly motivated to bounce back today, and they will be fresh and ready to go as they last played a week ago today. 

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 Sunday games.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Oklahoma State Sunday. 

15* Gonzaga/Arizona ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -2 

I’ll side with the home team laying the short number in this Top 25 matchup.  The Arizona Wildcats are 10-1 this season, including 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home.  They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 30.2 points per game at home this season. 

Gonzaga has only played two true road games this season.  They did win both, but those were against Washington and Texas A&M.  They lost by 18 to Michigan on a neutral and only beat Oregon by 1.  I think this is the toughest test for the Bulldogs yet as it’s the only game they haven’t been favored in.  Arizona is favored for good reason here. 

The Wildcats are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Arizona is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Roll with Arizona Saturday. 

20* Memphis/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +7 

This number is simply too high for a rivalry game between Tennessee and Memphis.  I think Memphis is legitimately one of the best teams in the country with what Penny Hardaway has done in recruiting.  And that will show on the court tonight. 

I’m not sold on this Tennessee team because they only returned one starter from last year and aren’t nearly as good as the team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  The Vols are 7-1, but they have yet to play a true road game, and they lost to the best team they have faced in Florida State.  They only other two decently hard games were wins over Washington and VCU on a neutral. 

The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  Memphis is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Vols are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take Memphis Saturday. 

20* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State -4 

The Iowa State Cyclones should be bigger favorites here against the Iowa Hawkeyes.  Hilton Magic is for real, and the Cyclones are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS inside Hilton Coliseum this season, winning by 22.0 points per game on average.  They just beat a ranked Seton Hall team 76-66 at home, and now they’ll make easy work of this unranked Hawkeyes squad. 

I’ve just seen too many poor performances from the Hawkeyes this season to trust them on the road here.  Iowa lost by 15 at home to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites.  They were beaten by 10 by San Diego State on a neutral in Las Vegas.  And they gave up 103 points to Michigan two games ago, which was the most points scored by the Wolverines in a Big Ten game since 1998. 

Hilton Coliseum has been a house of horrors for the Hawkeyes.  Indeed, Iowa hasn’t won at Hilton Coliseum since 2003.  The Cyclones have won eight straight home meetings with the Hawkeyes.  They want revenge from a bad road loss to Iowa last year, and they should get that revenge with a win and cover at home tonight. 

The Hawkeyes are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Iowa is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.  The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after going under the total in their previous game.  Steve Prohm is 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Iowa State, and 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points in all games he has coached.  Take Iowa State Thursday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois -1 

The Illinois Fighting Illini are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back losses to Miami and Maryland by a combined 3 points to fall to 6-3 on the season.  Their other loss this year came on the road at Arizona. 

The loss to Maryland was extra painful.  They led most the way then gave up a 3-pointer to tie in the closing seconds and fouled Maryland with only a couple seconds left and lost on a free throw.  They fell 58-59 as 10-point road dogs.  Maryland is the No. 4 ranked team in the country, so it showed what Illinois is capable of. 

Now the Fighting Illini get to host No. 5 Michigan.  This is a Wolverines team that has done most of its damage at home or on a neutral.  In their only true road game this season, the Wolverines lost 43-58 at Louisville as 6-point dogs.  Now they have to go on the highway for only the second time this season and face an Illinois team that is 5-1 at home and winning by 24.6 points per game. 

Illinois is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assets per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on home teams (Illinois) off two straight close losses by 3 points or less against an opponent that scored 85 points or more last game are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Illinois Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Rutgers -1 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are highly motivated for a victory tonight off two straight road losses to Pittsburgh and Michigan State.  They were competitive in both games and the Spartans had to pull away late to win 77-65 as 14-point favorites. 

There’s no question this Rutgers program is headed in the right direction under Steve Pikiell.  All three of their losses have come on the road this season.  The Scarlet Knights are 6-0 at home and winning by nearly 20 points per game. 

Wisconsin is 0-4 in all neutral and road games this season.  The Badgers lost to St. Mary’s, Richmond (by 10), New Mexico (by 9) and NC State (by 15) in their four games played away from home.  And coming off a big home win over Indiana, I look at this as a letdown spot for the Badgers. 

The home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams with the only exception being Wisconsin’s overtime win at Rutgers as 16-point favorites in 2017.  Rutgers won 64-60 at home against Wisconsin in 2018 and pulled the upset as 15-point home dogs in 2015. 

Rutgers is 15-6 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last three seasons.  The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  Roll with Rutgers Wednesday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +9.5 

The Northern Iowa Panthers continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as 9.5-point road dogs to the Colorado Buffaloes.  This is a loaded UNI team that finished strong in the second half of the season last year and should have won the MVC Tournament.  They returned four starters from that squad. 

The Panthers have opened 8-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  Their only loss came on the road at West Virginia 55-60 as 6.5-point underdogs.  They had a double-digit lead in that game as well before giving up the lead in the final seconds. 

I think Colorado is overvalued due to being ranked No. 24 in the country.  That has certainly shown here of late as the Buffaloes are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  And they are coming off a 14-point loss at Kansas on Saturday, so they have just two days to get ready for Northern Iowa.  It’s a hangover spot because they won’t be nearly as motivated to face UNI as they were Kansas. 

Northern Iowa comes in on seven days’ rest last playing on December 2nd.  It’s safe to say head coach Ben Jacobson will have his team ready for Colorado tonight.  The Buffaloes will be in for a bigger fight than they bargained for against this gritty Panthers team.  Take Northern Iowa Tuesday. 

15* Maryland/Penn State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Penn State PK 

The Maryland Terrapins are ranked No. 4 in the country after their 10-0 start this season.  They are overvalued now as they have taken advantage of a schedule that has seen them play just one true road game, which was an 80-73 win at Harvard as 10-point favorites.   

The Terrapins will suffer their first loss this season tonight at Penn State.  Maryland nearly lost its last game as a 10-point home favorite over Illinois, escaping with a 59-58 win after hitting a 3-pointer in the final seconds to tie it, and then getting the ball back and getting fouled just before the buzzer.  Their luck runs out tonight. 

Penn State is loaded this season with four returning starters.  The Nittany Lions are off to a 7-2 start and one of their losses came after a 20-point blown lead to Ole Miss.  The other was a road loss to Ohio State, and the Buckeyes look like the best team in the country right now.  Penn State is 5-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and winning by 23.4 points per game. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Penn State beat Maryland 78-61 at home last year as 1.5-point dogs.  The Nittany Lions are 13-2 ATS off two straight games with 12 or fewer assists over the last three seasons.  Penn State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Roll with Penn State Tuesday. 

20* Seton Hall/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State -2.5 

I love the spot for the Iowa State Cyclones tonight.  They are out for revenge from a 76-84 loss to Seton Hall in the Bahamas.  Now they get the Pirates at home this time around inside Hilton Coliseum, which is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country. 

The Cyclones are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game.  Their only non-cover was by 0.5 points.  It will be just the second true road game of the season for the Pirates tonight. 

Iowa State is 28-4 ATS in its last 32 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Roll with Iowa State Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +14.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 6-2 start with their only losses coming by 6 to St. Bonaventure on a neutral and by 11 at Pittsburgh.  They can stay within 14.5 points of the Michigan State Spartans tonight. 

The Spartans are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS and came into the season as the No. 1 ranked team.  They are far from it.  They were upset by Kentucky, Virginia Tech and Duke and failed to put away teams like Seton Hall, Georgia and UCLA.  They only have two wins all season by more than 13 points. 

Making matters worse for the Spartans are the injuries.  They are without both Joshua Langford and Rocket Watts, who were expected to be two of their best players coming into the season.  Joey Hauser being ruled ineligible also hurt them. 

The Scarlet Knights are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.  The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Rutgers has lost by 11 points or fewer in each of their last four meetings with the Spartans while going 3-1 ATS.  Bet Rutgers Sunday. 

15* Marquette/Kansas State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State PK 

For starters, Marquette player of the year candidate Markus Howard (26.0 PPG) is questionable to play tonight.  He sat out their last game with a concussion and is questionable to play again today.  The good news is I like Kansas State regardless of whether or not he plays, it would just be a bonus if he doesn’t. 

Marquette has been solid on a neutral and at home with the exception of a 21-point loss to Maryland.  But in their lone true road game, the Golden Eagles were blasted by a mediocre 4-4 Wisconsin team 61-77 as 2-point dogs.  And they will get blasted by Kansas State today as well. 

The Wildcats have only lost on a neutral this season.  They are 4-0 at home and winning by 15.3 points per game.  They are once again a dominant defensive team this year, holding opponents to 58.4 points per game overall and 54.2 points per game at home. 

Marquette is 1-8 ATS in road games off a win by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 12.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Golden Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -3 

The Temple Owls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It’s almost criminal that they aren’t ranked yet.  They are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming on a neutral to Maryland by 7 as 9-point dogs.  That’s a Maryland team that is ranked No. 3 in the country. 

Temple also has some impressive wins.  They went on the road and beat USC 70-61 as 9-point dogs.  They went on the road and beat Texas A&M 65-42 as 5-point favorites.  And they crushed Davidson 66-53 on a neutral as only 2-point favorites.  They should be more than 3-point favorites here Saturday against Missouri. 

The Tigers are just 4-4 this season and come in off a string of very disappointing showings.  They lost 52-63 to Butler on a neutral as 2-point favorites.  They were also upset as 1.5-point favorites against Oklahoma 66-77 on a neutral.  And they were just upset at home by Charleston Southern 60-68 as 23.5-point favorites.  This team is clearly overrated. 

Temple is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  They are winning by 11.0 points per game on average in this spot.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Temple Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +11 

The Illinois Fighting Illini are one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  It’s Year 3 under Brad Underwood, and this is where good head coaches make their mark.  Underwood is certainly impressing thus far in Year 3. 

The Fighting Illini returned four starters from last year and added in a great recruiting class.  They are off to a 6-2 start this season with their only two losses coming on the road to Arizona and at home to Miami.  They’ll be highly motivated for their Big Ten opener against No. 3 Maryland tonight. 

The Terrapins are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers here as double-digit favorites over this solid Illinois squad.  They have narrow wins over Temple and Harvard by 7 points apiece, and I think they are in for a fight tonight.  Especially since Maryland only has two days to get ready for Illinois after playing Notre Dame on Wednesday, while Illinois has four days to get ready while being off since Monday. 

Illinois pulled the 78-67 upset over Maryland as 8.5-point dogs last year.  Maryland hasn’t beaten Illinois by more than 6 since 2016.  The Terrapins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points. Take Illinois Saturday. 

20* Providence/Rhode Island ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island +2 

Rhode Island returned all five starters this season and will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Rams have played a brutal schedule and have managed to go 5-3 this season.  Their only losses all came on the road against Maryland, West Virginia and LSU.  They also beat Alabama outright by 14 as home underdogs and topped a good North Texas team by 13 as 6-point favorites on a neutral. 

Providence is 5-4 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  The Friars have been a huge disappointment against a much easier schedule than Rhode Island has faced.  They lost by 9 at Northwestern as 9-point favorites.  They lost at home to Pennsylvania outright as 15-point favorites.  And they also lost on a neutral to Long Beach State as 16-point favorites, lost to College of Charleston on a neutral as 9-point favorites, and barely beat Pepperdine by 3 on a neutral as 7-point favorites. 

Providence is 14-27 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Rhode Island Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -7.5 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are loaded this season and a legit NCAA Tournament team.  They are off to a 6-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Villanova.  They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall coming in, so they have been flying under the radar. 

Louisiana Tech has already been tested on the road against teams that are a similar caliber to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lost by 10 at Creighton and by 13 at Indiana.  I expect them to lose by double-digits tonight as well. 

The Bulldogs have been off since November 24th, so they’ll be ready to go tonight and completely focused.  Mississippi State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Mississippi State) - in a game involving two good teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game, after leading int heir previous game by 15 or more points at halftime are 73-32 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Mississippi State Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Mexico -3 

The New Mexico Lobos have NBA talent this season and should challenge for a Mountain West title.  They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only two losses coming on the road to UTEP and on a neutral to Auburn.  They also have a road win at New Mexico State and an upset win over Wisconsin on a neutral as 6.5-point dogs.  They have been battle-tested. 

Boise State has been far from impressive this season at 4-2.  Their only good win came at home against BYU.  They lost at Oregon by 31 as 10.5-point dogs.  They were upset at home by UC-Irvine by 9 as 4.5-point favorites.  And now they won’t be competitive with New Mexico, either. 

The Lobos have one of the best home-court advantages in the country year in and year out in The Pit.  The Lobos are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 16.4 points per game.  The Broncos are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet New Mexico Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on DePaul +2 

The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to an 8-0 start this season with three impressive road wins over Iowa, Boston College and Minnesota all as underdogs.  And now they are getting zero respect as home dogs to Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders were exposed in Las Vegas when they lost to Iowa 61-72 as 7-point favorites and were upset by Creighton as well 76-83 as 6-point favorites.  Leading scorer Jahmi’us Ramsey (17.3 PPG) missed the Creighton game and is questionable to play tonight as well. 

Texas Tech is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big East opponents.  The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Blue Demons are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 18.4 points per game.  Take DePaul Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tulane -1.5 

Ron Hunter did big things at IUPUI and Georgia State before coming to Tulane.  Now he is already turning around this Tulane program in his first season.  The Green Wave are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS this season and should be laying more than 1.5 points on the road over Southern Miss tonight. 

Tulane’s only loss this season came to Mississippi State as 10-point underdogs.  The Green Wave upset Utah as 8-point dogs on a neutral and their other five wins have all come by 9 points or more.  There is nothing fluky about their 6-1 start. 

Now Tulane takes on a rebuilding Southern Miss team that is 2-6 SU & 2-3-1 ATS this season.  The Golden Eagles’ only two wins have come at home against Delta State and William Carey.  Four of their six losses have come by 15 points or more with the only exceptions being their losses to South Alabama and North Florida. 

Southern Miss is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS int heir last five road games.  Tulane is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  Roll with Tulane Wednesday. 

20* FSU/Indiana ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Indiana -1 

Archie Miller finally has his best team at Indiana since he took over.  The Hoosiers are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS this season with all seven wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 22.8 points per game.  They are scoring 86.4 points per game on 51.4% shooting this season. 

The Hoosiers are also greatly improved defensively.  They are giving up 63.6 points per game on 38.3% shooting.  They are holding opponents to 11.2 points per game below their season averages.  They are also scoring 13.5 points per game more than their opponents average allowing on the season. 

I think this is a bad spot for Florida State.  They are coming off two straight nailbiting wins over Tennessee and Purdue on a neutral court by 3 points each.  Those two teams are both way down from where they were last year.  Now the Seminoles will be playing their 3rd game in 5 days, while the Hoosiers will only be playing their 2nd game in 8 days. 

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 55 points or less over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games off two straight wins by 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Roll with Indiana Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -1 

The Butler Bulldogs will be playing their first true road game of the season tonight.  They are 7-0 and ranked 24th in the country, but their unbeaten season comes to an end at Ole Miss here.  The unranked Rebels are favored and for good reason. 

Ole Miss has a one-point loss at Memphis and an upset win over Penn State on a neutral.  The Rebels will be highly motivated for a win following a blowout loss to a very good Oklahoma State team.  This is a Rebels team that won 20 games last year that earned Kermit Davis SEC Coach of the Year honors.  A lot of talent returned from that team. 

Breiin Tyree (15.1 PPG) is an SEC Player of the Year candidate and returning starter.  Blake Hinson (12.3 PPG) is also a returning starter who missed the first four games of the season.  Now that he’s back, the Rebels should take off.  KJ Buffen (12.4 PPG) is shooting 54% from the floor and 50% from 3-point range.  This is a great 3-point shooting team with four of the top five scorers all shooting at least 37.5% from distance.  Tyree won’t continue to shoot as poorly from 3 as he has thus far. 

The Rebels are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 games overall.  Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games off a loss by 20 points or more.  Butler is 6-15 ATS in true road games over the last three seasons.  Bet Ole Miss Tuesday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple -2 

The Davidson Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country because they returned all five starters this year.  But those starters are clearly mediocre as the Wildcats are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their seven games this season. 

Davidson has had some ugly performances to say the least.  They were upset as 10-point favorites in a 13-point loss at Charlotte.  They were upset by Wake Forest as 9-point favorites in a 12-point loss on a neutral.  And they lost by 10 to Marquette as 2.5-point dogs. 

Temple is 5-1 this season and has some impressive wins.  They went on the road and beat both La Salle and USC, topping the Trojans as 9-point dogs.  Temple’s only loss this season came against one of the best teams in the country in Maryland as 9-point dogs in a 7-point loss on a neutral.  The Owls are coming off a 65-42 blowout win over Texas A&M on the road as well. 

Davidson is 2-9 ATS in non-conference road games over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Temple is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 neutral site games.  Davidson is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Bet Temple Sunday. 

15* Florida State/Purdue CBB No-Brainer on Florida State +1 

The Florida State Seminoles have the home-court advantage in this neutral site affair with the Purdue since it is played in Niceville, Florida.  The Seminoles are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming at Pitt by a final of 61-63.  They went on to beat Florida 63-51 as 6-point road dogs.  And yesterday they topped No. 17 Tennessee 60-57. 

The Purdue Boilermakers lost a lot of talent from the team that made the Elite 8 last year.  Carsen Edwards single-handedly got them to the Elite 8, but he’s now gone.  The Boilermakers were upset at home by Texas 66-70 as 6.5-point favorites and they lost by 10 at Marquette in a pick ‘em role.  They were fortunate to escape with a 59-56 win over VCU last night. 

I like the fact that FSU played the early game yesterday and got to watch the Purdue/VCU game for scouting reasons.  It also makes the Seminoles the more fresh team, though it’s never a problem with them because they are always so deep, and they once again have some great depth this year. 

FSU is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 games as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games overall.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with Florida State Saturday. 

15* Texas Tech/Creighton CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas Tech -6 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders blitzed out to a 5-0 start this season with all five wins coming by 15 points or more.  But then they were upset by Iowa as 7-point favorites yesterday, and I think they are undervalued now today against Creighton as a result. 

There’s no question Texas Tech is the better team.  Creighton is 4-2 SU but 1-5 ATS this season.  They lost by 10 at Michigan and were embarrassed by 31 by San Diego State yesterday.  They also struggled to put away Cal Poly in a 16-point home win as 24.5-point favorites.  And they only beat North Florida by 9 as 17-point home favorites.  They aren’t even in the same class at Texas Tech, and it will show on the scoreboard. 

Creighton is 8-18 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Texas Tech is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games overall.  The Red Raiders are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off an ATS loss.  The Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Texas Tech Friday. 

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego State -3 

The San Diego State Aztecs are one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  They are off to a 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS start this season with six wins by 13 points or more.  They also pulled the upset 76-71 at BYU as 4-point dogs. 

Yesterday, San Diego State blasted Creighton 83-52 as 2.5-point favorites.  That blowout afforded the Aztecs the ability to rest their starters late so they’ll still be fresh for Iowa today.  I think that’s a huge advantage and one that will help them cover this 3-point spread. 

Iowa pulled off a shocking 72-61 upset win as 7-point dogs over Texas Tech yesterday.  They had to play their starters all the way until the final buzzer because Texas Tech kept making runs at them.  And after beating the Red Raiders, the Hawkeyes are clearly getting more respect than they deserve.  Remember, Iowa lost 78-93 at home to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites. 

The Aztecs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.  San Diego State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games.  Roll with San Diego State Friday. 

15* Tennessee/FSU CBB No-Brainer on Florida State -1 

For starters, Florida State will have the home-court advantage with this neutral site game being played in Niceville, FL.  And I simply believe the Seminoles are the better team and are favored for good reason despite being unranked and facing No. 17 Tennessee. 

The Vols are getting too much respect for what they did last year.  But they only brought back one starter from that team.  They are 5-0 this season, but it has come against an easy schedule with the five wins coming against UNC-Asheville, Murray State, Washington, Alabama State and UT-Chattanooga. 

Florida State is 5-1 this season with its only loss coming by two points at Pitt, 61-63.  The Seminoles went on to blow out Florida 63-51 as 6-point road dogs to show what they are capable of.  They also played UT-Chattanooga, beating them 89-53 at home while Tennessee only beat Chattanooga 58-46 at home.  That gives them a common opponent and shows that FSU is clearly the better team. 

Plays against neutral court underdogs (Tennessee) - after three straight wins by 10 points or more against an opponent that’s off a blowout win by 20 points or more are 32-14 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Seminoles are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. SEC opponents.  The Vols are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Florida State Friday. 

15* Iowa State/Seton Hall ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Seton Hall -2.5 

Iowa State used a lot of energy in their 104-89 shootout win against a bad Alabama team yesterday.  Now the Cyclones will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days and don’t have much of a bench.  They will be the more tired team in this matchup. 

That’s because Seton Hall made easy work of Southern Miss 81-56 yesterday and was allowed to rest its starters down the stretch.  This is clearly a very good Seton Hall team, taking both Michigan State (73-76) and Oregon (69-71) to the wire.  Oregon and Michigan State are two of the best teams in the country. 

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS when playing with one or fewer days’ rest over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games.  Take Seton Hall Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Tech -6.5 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are back at it this season in being among the best teams in the country after finishing as runners-up to Virginia last year for the national title.  They have come back hungry this season to prove that the runs to the Elite 8 and the National Championship Game the past two years were no fluke. 

Indeed, the Red Raiders are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with all five wins coming by 15 points or more and by an average of 26.8 points per game.  They are once again elite defensively, holding opponents to 60.2 points per game and nearly 15 points per game less than their season averages.  Offensively, they are scoring 87.0 points per game and averaging 11.3 points per game more than their opponents normally allow. 

Iowa is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS this season.  The Hawkeyes have played all five games at home thus far against some suspect competition.  Their four wins have come against SIU Edwardsville, Oral Roberts, North Florida and Cal Poly.  And they were upset in a 78-93 home loss to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites.  The Hawkeyes are giving up 70.8 points per game this season, only holding opponents to 1.4 points per game less than their season averages.  They are once again a soft defensive team this year. 

Iowa is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Hawkeyes are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Red Raiders are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Texas Tech is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday. 

20* Seton Hall/Oregon ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oregon -1 

The Oregon Ducks are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and ranked No. 11 in the country for good reason.  They have won all five games by 8 points or more and their schedule has not been easy as they’ve played Fresno State (won by 14), Boise State (won by 31), Memphis (won by 8) and Houston (won by 12). 

Seton Hall is also off to a good start this season at 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS.  Their narrow home loss to Michigan State doesn’t look so good now after Michigan State was just upset as 13.5-point favorites against Virginia Tech and barely beat Georgia.  Seton Hall is mostly a one-man show with Myles Powell and the Ducks’ elite defense will be prepared to stop him. 

Oregon is giving up 63.8 points per game and 36.1% shooting.  That’s impressive when you consider they have faced some great offensive teams that average 80.1 points per game on the season.  They are holding their opponents to 16.3 points per game less than their season averages. 

Oregon is 9-0 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Ducks are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Seton Hall is 0-4 ATS in its last four games off a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Oregon Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State +1 

The Wichita State Shockers are off to an impressive 6-0 start this season.  They returned three starters for head coach Gregg Marshall this season and should be able to make a run at the NCAA Tournament after settling for the NIT last year.  They won nine of their final 11 AAC games last year and made a run to the NIT semifinals, which greatly benefited them this season. 

Wichita State crushed South Carolina 70-47 yesterday behind another dominant defensive performance.  They held the Gamecocks to 32.1% shooting and have now held all six of their opponents to 39.3% or less.  They are giving up just 56.2 points per game and 35.9% shooting on the season, holding opponents to 15.1 points per game less than their season averages. 

West Virginia is 5-0 but just 2-3 ATS.  They only beat Northern Colorado by 8 and Akron by 10 at home.  They were fortunate to make this title game because they had a 15-point comeback win over Northern Iowa yesterday and took the lead in the final seconds on an And-1 following a bogus flagrant foul.  They scored 5 points with the clock stopped, and it was the difference in the game.  They won’t be so fortunate against Wichita State today. 

The Shockers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 37% or less.  Wichita State is 9-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  The Shockers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 non-conference games.  Roll with Wichita State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Northern Iowa +1 

The Northern Iowa Panthers are 6-1 this season and have their best team in years.  They closed last season very strong and have welcomed back four starters this season and a ton of talent.  If not for a blown 15-point lead against West Virginia yesterday and a bogus flagrant foul call late, they’d be 7-0. 

Look for the Panthers to come back today and beat a very bad South Carolina team.  South Carolina is coming off a 16-16 season last year and two of their top three scores from that team in Chris Silva (15.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG last year) and Hassani Gravett (11.4 PPG). 

South Carolina is 4-2 this season, but they were upset 70-78 at home by Boston U as 15.5-point favorites.  And they barely beat Gardner Webb by 5 as 15-point favorites before getting crushed 47-70 by Wichita State yesterday.  I was on Wichita State yesterday, and I’ll fade the Gamecocks again today. 

Northern Iowa is 34-11 ATS in its last 45 neutral court games with a total of 129.5 or less.  The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The Gamecocks are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.  South Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday. 

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State -3 

The Wichita State Shockers are off to an impressive 5-0 start this season.  They returned three starters for head coach Gregg Marshall this season and should be able to make a run at the NCAA Tournament after settling for the NIT last year.  They won nine of their final 11 AAC games last year and made a run to the NIT semifinals, which greatly benefited them this season. 

South Carolina is coming off a 16-16 season last year and two of their top three scores from that team in Chris Silva (15.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG last year) and Hassani Gravett (11.4 PPG).  The Gamecocks are off to a 4-1 start this season against. Very soft schedule with five home against against suspect competition.   

The Gamecocks lost to Boston U 70-78 at home as 15.5-point favorites and didn’t respond well in their next game, only beating Gardner Webb 74-69 as 15-point favorites.  That gives Wichita State a common opponent as they also played Gardner Webb, crushing them 74-52 as 15.5-point home favorites. 

The Shockers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Wichita State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  South Carolina is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 non-conference games.  The Gamecocks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Bet Wichita State Tuesday. 

15* Stanford/Oklahoma ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +5 

Head coach Jarod Haase clearly has the best team he has had at Stanford as he enters his fourth year with the program.  The Cardinal returned three starters this year and came away with a tremendous recruiting class.  Things are looking up for Stanford. 

Indeed, the Cardinal are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with all six wins coming by 11 points or more.  They have two common opponents with Oklahoma this season, which would lead me to believe that Stanford is the better team and shouldn’t be catching points here. 

Oklahoma is also 5-0, but failed to cover the spread against the same two teams that Stanford played.  They beat William & Mary 75-70, while Stanford beat W&M 81-50.  They beat Maryland East Shore by 27, and Stanford beat Maryland East Shore by 21.  So Stanford has outscored those two teams by an average of 26.0 points per game, while Oklahoma has only outscored them by 16.0 points per game. 

Stanford is shooting 43% from 3-point range this season, while Oklahoma is only shooting 30.2%.  The Cardinal are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after two straight games making 50% of their 3-point shots or better.  Take Stanford Monday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -1 

The Missouri Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this year with their only loss coming on the road at Xavier in overtime.  Their four wins have all come by 15 points or more. 

The Tigers returned three starters this season and added in some great recruits.  Their three returning starters are all having solid seasons in Mark Smith (13.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG this year), Jeremiah Tilmon (11.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Javon Pickett (5.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG).  Dru Smith (11.6 PPG, 4.8 APG) is a transfer from Evansville, and Xavier Pinson (9.2 PPG, 3.8 APG) has taken his game to the next level after coming off the bench last year. 

Butler is coming off a 16-17 season and it’s clear head coach LaVall Jordan is falling short of expectations.  The Bulldogs only returned two starters this year and one is Aaron Thompson (6.3 PPG, 4.3 APG last year).  The Bulldogs are 5-0 but it has come against an easy schedule with five home games. 

This is technically a neutral site game, but it won’t be neutral at all.  It will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO and the Tigers will have a huge home-court edge.  Butler is 3-16 ATS in road games off a home game over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS in road games off two or more straight wins over the last three years.  Butler is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Bet Missouri Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rhode Island +6.5 

The Rhode Island Rams were in a rebuilding year last season and went just 18-15 (9-9 A-10) in David Cox’s first season on the job.  But now Cox returns all five starters and a ton of experience, which makes the Rams a dark horse contender to compete for the A-10 title. 

The five returning starters are Fatts Russell (14.2 PPG last year), Cyril Langevine (14.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG), Jeff Dowtin (15.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG), Tyrese Martin (8.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Jermaine Harris (4.4 PPG).  That’s a ton of returning production.  The Rams are off to a 4-1 start this season with a win over Alabama and their only loss coming to a Top 10 Maryland team on the road. 

LSU lost a couple players to the NBA and isn’t nearly as good as it was last year.  The Tigers are 3-2 this season with losses to the two best teams they’ve faced in VCU and Utah State.  LSU struggled to put away Bowling Green by 9 at home as 13-point favorites and Nicholls State by 10 at home as 21-point favorites.  They should not be favored by 6.5 on a neutral over Rhode Island today. 

The Tigers are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  LSU is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Rhode Island is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. SEC opponents.  Roll with Rhode Island Sunday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida International -8 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG last year), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap todayt because they are just 2-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs.  Then they went on to blow out Cleveland State 107-61 as 7.5-point road favorites.  And yesterday they beat Eastern Kentucky 89-70 as 7.5-point favorites.  This team is a sleeping giant folks. 

UNC-Wilmington has some very concerning results this year.  They are 3-3 and lost by 38 at Davidson as 15.5-point favorites.  Perhaps the more concerning result is their 46-47 loss to Cleveland State as 5.5-point favorites last week.  That’s the same Cleveland State team FIU beat 107-61 on the road, giving these teams a common opponent.  This game has blowout written all over it, and I’m shocked FIU isn’t a double-digit favorite.  Bet Florida International Saturday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -6.5 

The Oregon Ducks are one of the best teams in the country this season.  They are proving it quickly with a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  They beat Fresno by 14, Boise by 31, Memphis by 8 and UT-Arlington by 20. And now they will get another double-digit win over Houston tonight. 

The Houston Cougars are still being priced like the team that went 33-4 last season.  But the Cougars are far from that team as they lost four starters from that squad in Corey Davis (17.0 PPG), Armani Brooks (13.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG), Galen Robinson Jr. (8.0 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Braeon Brady (6.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG). 

Houston has opened 4-0 SU & 1-2 ATS.  They were upset at home by BYU 71-72 as 11.5-point favorites.  And they trailed Rice by 9 in the final five minutes before going on a big run to pull out the 97-89 win as 13-point favorites.  Now they will face their toughest test yet by far tonight. 

Oregon is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Ducks are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Oregon is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Oregon) - a top team outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points per game, after allowing 50 points or less last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Oregon Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Florida International -7.5 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG last year), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap todayt because they are just 2-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs.  Then they went on to blow out Cleveland State 107-61 as identical 7.5-point road favorites.  This team is a sleeping giant folks. 

Eastern Kentucky is picked to finish near the bottom of the Ohio Valley Conference this season and for good reason.  They went just 13-18 last year and lost two double-digit scorers in Nick Mayo (23.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and Dujuanta Weaver (10.2 PPG).  That’s a lot of production lost.  The Colonels are 3-2, but their three wins have all come at home against Chattanooga, Chillicothe and Alice Lloyd.  They lost by 42 at Kentucky and by 8 at home to Western Kentucky. 

Eastern Kentucky is 1-9 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Colonels are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  The Golden Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games off a win by more than 20 points.  FIU is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Take Florida International Friday. 

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UConn -3.5 

The UConn Huskies are in Year 2 under Dan Hurley.  I expect them to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are off to a 2-1 start this season with an impressive upset win over Florida.  They returned four key players who all averaged at least 8.4 points per game last year. 

Christian Vital (19.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG) is a senior guard who is among the AAC’s best players.  Josh Carlton (13.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG) was the AAC’s most improved player last year and is taking that next step.  Alterique Gilbert (12.7 PPG) is finally healthy after battling shoulder injuries his entire career.  Tyler Polley (12.7 PPG) is a sweet stroke and is shooting 47.1% from 3-point range after making 38% last year. 

Buffalo is a team I’m looking to fade in the early going.  They are coming off their most wins in program history, and as a result they lost head coach Nate Oats to Alabama.  Jim Whitesell is in his first season and the Bulls have to replace five crucial seniors, including CJ Massinburg (18.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG last year) and Jeremy Harris (14.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG).  They don’t return a single double-digit scorer from last year’s team. 

We saw a sign of things to come in Buffalo’s opener when it was upset 63-68 at home by Dartmouth as an 11.5-point favorite.  And their two wins came against Nazareth and Harvard, so this will be a big step up in class facing UConn tonight. 

UConn is 17-5 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Huskies will have gained a ton of confidence with that upset win over Florida, and it will carry over to this matchup with Buffalo tonight.  Bet UConn Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +8 

The Toledo Rockets are among the favorites to win the MAC this season and for good reason.  Toledo head coach Td Kowalcyk enters his 10th season with the program, and the Rockets are a perennial contender.  They are coming off a 25-8 season and a first-place finish in the MAC West. 

Now the Rockets return three starters in Marreon Jackson (11.7 PPG, 4.2 APG last year), Luke Knapke (10.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and William Jackson (8.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG).  The Rockets are off to a 3-1 start this season with their only loss coming on the road to Valparaiso in their opener by 2 points.  They have blowout wins over Marshall (by 26), Robert Morris (by 14) and Howard (by 44). 

Notre Dame is coming off a disastrous 14-19 season.  The Fighting Irish returned five starters this year, but they don’t have much talent.  That’s clear when you consider despite being 4-1 SU they are just 1-4 ATS this season.  They only beat Marshall by 10 as 19-point home favorites and Presbyterian by 10 as 26.5-point home favorites in their last two games coming in.  Toledo won at Marshall by 26 to give them a common opponent and a big reason they can stay within 8 points here. 

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. MAC opponents.  The Rockets are 11-3 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last three seasons.  Take Toledo Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +6.5 

I like the Portland Pilots catching points in this in-state rivalry with Portland State.  The Pilots clearly came into this season undervalued after going 7-25 last year and 0-16 in WCC play.  I think they’ll continue to be a money maker moving forward. 

Indeed, Portland is off to a 3-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  After beating Williamette by 50 in their opener, they gave USC a battle in a 65-76 road loss as 23-point dogs.  Then they upset San Jose State 72-57 as 3-point road dogs before covering against Maine in a 71-62 victory as 7.5-point home favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 31.5 points in their three lined games. 

Portland State is picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Sky this year and deservedly so.  They lost three starters and only brought back two players who averaged more than 4.3 points per game from last season.  They are 1-2 this season with their only win coming at home over Puget Sound by a final of 94-69.  They lost at Indiana and Hawaii and are coming off a trip to the Island. 

Portland State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Vikings are 0-9 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Pilots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Pilots are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings at Portland State.  Roll with Portland Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on UNLV -4 

The UNLV Rebels made a great hire in the offseason by nabbing T.J. Otzelberger from South Dakota State.  He went 70-33 in his three seasons there while guiding the Jack Rabbits to two NCAA Tournaments and an NIT.  While several players transferred or graduated, Otzelberger was able to keep two starters in Amauri Hardy (13.1 PPG, 3.5 APG last year) and Cheikh Mbacke Diong (6.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 40 blocks). 

The Rebels have won and covered their two home games against IUPU-Fort Wayne and Abilene Christian.  And they are certainly battle-tested in the early going with losses to Kansas State (by 4), Cal (by 4) and UCLA (by 17).  This tough early schedule will have the Rebels undervalued moving forward after a 2-3 start.  Hardy (19.0 PPG) is carrying the team, while transfers Elijah Mitrou-Long (12.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG) from Texas and Donnie Tillman (12.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) from Utah have both proven to be huge gets for Otzelberger. 

Texas State also returns just two starters from last year and comes in overvalued after a 24-10 season.  The Bobcats are 3-2 with their three wins all coming at home against cupcakes in Texas Lutheran, Prairie View A&M and Jackson State.  They lost their two road games to Air Force and Baylor.  And now they will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after beating Jackson State at home on Monday while having to travel to UNLV.  The Bobcats won’t be prepared for this game at all. 

Danny Kaspar is 10-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Texas State.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Otzelberger is 23-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game in all games as a head coach.  Bet UNLV Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International -7 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap tonight because they are just 1-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs. 

Cleveland State is picked to finish last in the Horizon this season, and I fully agree with it.  The Vikings went 10-21 last season and brought in a new head coach in Dennis Gates.  They lost all five starters from last year and only brought back one key reserve.  The Vikings are 1-3 this season with a 35-point loss to Minnesota, a 20-point loss to Missouri State and a 27-point loss to South Carolina.  They are clearly a team in rebuilding mode.  Take Florida International Tuesday. 

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -25 

The Kentucky Wildcats are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.  They were just upset by Evansville as 24.5-point favorites last time out on Tuesday.  They’ve had nearly a full week to stew over that loss and will now be looking to take out their frustration on Utah Valley State tonight. 

Utah Valley State is 3-1 this season but has played a pretty easy schedule.  It’s a Utah Valley team that lost four starters who all averaged at least 8.5 points per game last year.  Their lone returning starter is Isaiah White, who averaged 8.5 points and 4.4 rebounds last year.   

It will be the 3rd game in 7 days for Utah Valley, which hasn’t had much time to prepare for Kentucky.  The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Roll with Kentucky Monday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -9 

The Northern Iowa Panthers nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year.  They caught fire in the second half of the season and led Bradley in the MVC title game 35-17 before falling apart.  It was clear after that run that they’d be a force in 2019-20 with all they had returning. 

Indeed, the Panthers returned six of their top seven scorers from last year.  They have six seniors and three juniors and are actually led by a sophomore in A.J. Green, who averaged 15.0 PPG last year.  Green is their highest rated recruit in program history and likely a future NBA talent. 

I like the fact that Northern Iowa took a trip to Italy in August to bond.  It has paid dividends in the early going as the Panthers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with two wins by double-digits.  Now they are laying less than doubles against a Northern Colorado team I expect them to handle at home today. 

Northern Colorado is returning four starters this year, but they play in a much weaker conference in the Big Sky. And their opening 45-69 loss at Texas as 16.5-point dogs says everything that needs to be said about this team.  Texas isn’t expected to be very good this season, and I believe Northern Iowa would give the Longhorns a run for their money. 

The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Expect Northern Iowa to continue its solid play in the early going this season and win this game by double-digits.  Take Northern Iowa Saturday. 

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rhode Island +2 

The Rhode Island Rams were in a rebuilding year last season and went just 18-15 (9-9 A-10) in David Cox’s first season on the job.  But now Cox returns all five starters and a ton of experience, which makes the Rams a dark horse contender to compete for the A-10 title. 

The five returning starters are Fatts Russell (14.2 PPG last year), Cyril Langevine (14.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG), Jeff Dowtin (15.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG), Tyrese Martin (8.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Jermaine Harris (4.4 PPG).  That’s a ton of returning production, and I think the fact that they are coming off a road loss to Maryland has the Rams undervalued coming into this home game against Alabama tonight. 

Alabama is in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Nate Oats.  They returned three starters but lost three key players in Tevin Mack, Donta Hall and Dazon Ingram.  Top-100 recruit Juwan Gary is out for the season with a knee injury, stud JC transfer James Rojas is also out for the season with a knee injury, and Villanova transfer Jahvon Quinerly is out for the season due to being ineligible.  Returning starter Herbert Jones is questionable to play tonight with an elbow injury. 

This is an Alabama team that was upset at home by Pennsylvania in their opener.  I don’t think they should be favored on the road here against this veteran Rhode Island team when they can’t even beat Penn at home.  The Crimson Tide will be playing their first road game of the season here.  They have only three days to get ready for Rhode Island, while the Rams have had five days off since the loss to Maryland to prepare.   

Alabama is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Roll with Rhode Island Friday. 

15* Purdue/Marquette FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Marquette -1 

The Marquette Golden Eagles return three starters from a team that went 24-10 last season.  That includes National Playoer of the Year candidate Marcus Howard, who averaged 25.0 points per game last year.  They also return Sacar Animalities (8.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG) and Theo John (5.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and a couple key reserves. 

The Golden Eagles are off to a flying start this season with an 88-53 home win over Loyola-MD as an 18.5-point favorites.  Howard had 38 points, Anim had 11 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists,  and John had 7 points and 8 rebounds.  Utah State transfer Koby McEwen added 11 points and 7 boards.  Now they’ve had eight days to get ready for Purdue after playing that game on November 5th. 

Purdue loses a ton of talent from a team that made the Elite 8 last year and took eventual national champion Virginia to the wire.  Carsen Edwards (24.3 PPG, 135 3-pointers) is gone after single-handedly carrying the Boilermakers on their NCAA Tournament run.  Also gone is second-leading scorer Ryan Cline (12.0 PPG, 111 3-pointers).  Replacing those two is impossible. 

Purdue is off to a shaky start failing to cover as a 23-point home favorite against Wisconsin-Green Bay and losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites against Texas, 66-70.  The Boilermakers shot just 41% from the field against the Longhorns and allowed 53.3% shooting to a team that is notoriously a poor shooting team year in and year out. 

Purdue is 23-44 ATS in its last 67 road games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite.  Marquette is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Boilermakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  The Golden Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Take Marquette Wednesday. 

20* LSU/VCU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on VCU -2.5 

The VCU Rams want some revenge on LSU head coach Will Wade, who succeeded former head coach Shaka Smart in Richmond.  As part of an agreement to allow the third-year LSU coach to escape his contract with VCU to take his current job, these two programs agreed to play a home-and-home in 2019 and 2020. 

“I do think most of the fans were not real please with me,” Wade told the Advocate of his departure from the Rams in 2017. “They’re not real happy about the move, and I’m sure they’ll let their feelings be known when we show up there.” 

Current VCU head coach Mike Rhoades led the Rams to a 25-8 record last season and first-place finish in the Atlantic 10 with a 16-2 record.  Now Rhoads has almost everyone back with four double-digit scorers returning in Marcus Evans (13.6 PPG), De’Riante Jenkins (11.3 PPG), Issac Vann (10.8 PPG) and Marcus Santos-Silva (10.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG).  The Rams ranked top 10 in the nation in defense last season. 

LSU only returns two starters in Skylar Mays (13.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG) and Marion Taylor (6.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They lose their top two scorers in Tremont Waters (15.3 PPG, 5.8 APG) and Naz Reid (13.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG) to the NBA.  They also lose key big man Kavell Bigby-Williams (7.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG).  They got off to a shaky start with an 88-79 home win over Bowling Green as a 13-point favorite.  They committed 16 turnovers and will struggle to take care of the ball against this lockdown VCU defense. 

VCU is 12-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 9-0 ATS after failing to cove the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Bet VCU Wednesday. 

15* Creighton/Michigan FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Creighton +5.5 

The Creighton Bluejays are going to challenge for a Big East title this year.  They returned four starters in Davion Mintz (9.7 PPG, 3.0 APG), Ty-Shon Alexander (15.7 PPG, 97 3-pointers), Marcus Zegarowski (10.4 PPG, 3.4 APG) and Mictch Ballock (11.1 PPG, 95 3-pointers).  They are one of the most veteran teams in the conference. 

The Michigan Wolverines are in a bit of a rebuild now that John Beilein moved on to coach in the NBA with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Former Wolverine Juwan Howard got the job and will have his hands full matching Beilein’s success early in his career. 

Howard only inherits two returning starters in Xavier Simpson (7.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG) and Jon Teske (9.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG).  The Wolverines must replace their top three scorers from last year in Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG), Jordan Poole (12.8 PPG) and Charles Matthews (12.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG). 

Michigan got off to a rough start in their opener, only beating Appalachian State 79-71 as 17-point favorites.  Creighton made easy work of Kennesaw State 81-55 and covered as 25.5-point favorites.  Look for the Bluejays to give the Wolverines a run for their money tonight and likely win this game outright. 

The Bluejays are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Creighton is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Wolverines are 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Take Creighton Tuesday. 

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake +12.5 

The Drake Bulldogs were one of the most underrated teams in the country last season.  They went 24-10 (12-6 MVC) and tied for first in the conference.  They were covering machines and I expect them to continue beating the closing number at a great rate this season. 

The Bulldogs returned three starters and three key reserves this season and are among the favorites to win the MVC again.  They’re off to a good start with an 86-55 win over Kennesaw State as 15-point favorites.  They shot 57.6% as a team and had five players score in double figures, including a couple newcomers in Jonah Jackson (15 points) and Roman Penn (10 points). 

Cincinnati lost head coach Mick Cronin to UCLA and will take a step back this year.  They opened the season with a 56-64 loss at in-state rival Ohio State as 5.5-point dogs.  They will have a hard time getting up for Drake after facing a ranked Ohio State team. 

Drake is 24-8 ATS in all games over the last two seasons, and 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  The Bearcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.  Take Drake Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida -5.5 

The Florida Gators are the No. 6 team in the country for good reason.  They returned three starters and added in Virginia Tech transfer Kerry Blackshear Jr. who is a clear NBA talent. 

I faded Florida State against Pitt in their opener and won and I’m fading the Seminoles again today.  They lost six of their top eight scorers from last year and simply aren’t nearly as good as they are getting credit for after going 29-8 last season. 

Florida will come into this game highly motivated for a win after losing five straight to Florida State, including blowout losses each of the last two seasons.  This is their year to get payback because they finally have the better team, and it’s not even close.  Take Florida Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +1.5 

The Northern Iowa Panthers nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year.  They caught fire around Valentine’s Day and led Bradley in the MVC title game 35-17 before falling apart. 

Now, Northern Iowa returns six of its top seven scorers and is a clear contender in the MVC this season.  They have six seniors and three juniors and are actually led by sophomore A.J. Green (15.0 PPG, 71 3-pointers), who is their highest rated recruit in program history.  They took a trip to Italy in August to bond even further. 

The Panthers are coming off a very good 58-53 win over Old Dominion as 4.5-point favorites despite shooting just 34.5% from the field.  They held the Monarchs to just 35.6% shooting, and their suffocating defense has been a staple in the Ben Jacobson era.  I like the fact that they have a game under their belts already while this will be the first game of the season for Northern Illinois. 

Northern Illinois loses two of its top three scorers in Levi Bradley (14.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Dante Thorp (13.8 PPG).  That’s a lot of production needing replace from a middling Huskies team that went just 17-17 last year and 8-10 in MAC play.  Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday. 

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Weber State +17 

Weber State has the Big Sky’s best player in Jerrick Harding (21.4 PPG).  The Wildcats also return second-leading scorer Cody John (14.8 PPG) and Israel Barnes (6.5 PPG).  They have a tremendous backcourt and return some key reserves in Michal Kozak (4.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG) and Caleb Nero (6.5 PPG). 

Head coach Randy Rahe has been at Weber State for 13 years, and and last year their 18-15 record resulted in the second-most losses since he has been there.  The Wildcats are a perennial contender in the Big Sky and are primed for a bounce-back season.  I think they open 2019-20 undervalued off last year’s results. 

Utah State is ranked 17th in the country and overvalued.  That was evident in the Aggies’ opener as they actually trailed Montana State by a bucket as 21.5-point favorites with just six minutes remaining.  The close on a 17-7 run to secure a shaky 81-73 victory, which is not good for a veteran team like the Aggies that returned four starters.  They will get everyone’s best shot because of their national ranking, including Weber State tonight. 

These teams play every season and almost every game goes right down to the wire.  In fact, each of the last 11 meetings have been decided by 12 points or less.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing Weber State pertaining to this 17-point spread.  Bet Weber State Friday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -21.5 

The Ole Miss Rebels are coming off a very successful season in head coach Kermit Davis’ first year on the job in 2018-10.  He guided the Rebels to a 20-13 record and a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament, making the big dance for the first time since 2015 and earning Davis SEC Coach of the Year honors. 

Now, Ole Miss returns three starters and a tremendous backcourt.  Back is potential SEC Player of the Year candidate Breein Tyree (17.9 PPG) to run the offense at point guard.  Also back is G Devontae Shuler (10.3 PPG) who shot 51.1% on 2-pointers and 40.2% from 3-point range.  G/F Blake Hinson (8.3 PPG) is back after scoring in double figures 10 times as a freshman.  The Rebels also nabbed four-star prospect Austin Crowley, who stayed at home.  Bryce Williams is a big-time athlete who scored 15.3 PPG and shot 44% on 3-pointers at a community college. 

Arkansas State is picked to finish in the bottom 3rd of the Sun Belt this season.  It’s easy to see why as Mike Balado returns just one starter in Marquis Eaton (11.2 PPG).  The Red Wolves lose leading scorer Ty Cockfield (22.4 PPG) and third-leading scorer Grantham Gillard (10.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG).  They are coming off a 13-19 season and back-to-back disappointing campaigns under Balado. 

I would have to say it’s going to be another disappointing season after seeing Arkansas State struggled to put away Arkansas-Monticello 65-49 in a game where there wasn’t even a point spread.  They only led 28-22 before pulling away in the second half. 

Arkansas State is 1-8 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  The Red Wolves are 1-9 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last two seasons.  Ole Miss is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games overall.  The Rebels are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.  Roll with Ole Miss Friday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +4.5 

Jeff Capel did a great job in his first season at Pitt.  He took a team that went winless in the ACC and with eight wins overall under Kevin Stallings and got them to 14-19 on the season.  Now, in his second season with the team, Capel and the Panthers should make a big leap forward. 

The Panthers return four starters led by guards Xavier Johnson (15.5 PPG) and Trey McGowens (11.6 PPG).  JC transfer G Ryan Murphy should contribute right away.  They also return Au’Diese Toney (7.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and Terrell Brown (5.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG) down low and add in UNC Greensboro transfer Eric Hamilton.  Freshman Justin Champagnie is a swingman who is strong off the dribble and can rebound.  He should bring some much-needed scoring pop to the frontcourt. 

The Florida State Seminoles are coming off an awesome 29-win season.  However, they lost six of their top eight scorers from that team and won’t be starting fast this season.  They don’t return a single double-digit scorer as their top two returnees are Trent Forest (9.3 PPG) and M.J. Walker (7.5 PPG).  It’s going to take some time for the Seminoles to gel with all they lost. 

Plays on home teams (Pittsburgh) - first five games of the season, after closing out last season with eight or more losses in their final 10 games, a team that had a losing record last season are 121-71 (63%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Pittsburgh beat a very good FSU team 75-62 as identical 4.5-point home underdogs last season.  The Panthers are now 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Pittsburgh.  Roll with Pittsburgh Wednesday. 

15* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Michigan State -2.5 

The Michigan State Spartans went 32-7 last year and made the Final Four.  I completely agree with them being the No. 1 ranked team in the country this season with all that they return.  They are clearly the best team in college basketball to start the season. 

Head coach Tom Izzo welcomes back Big Ten Player of the Year Cassius Winston at point guard.  He averaged 18.8 points and 7.5 assists per game last year and is the heart and soul of this team.  Also back are key contributors in G Kyle Ahrens (4.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG),  F Aaron Henry (6.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG) and F Xavier Tillman (10.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG).  And the Spartans expect key contributions from freshmen G Mark “Rocket” Watts and F Malik Hall. 

I like fading teams like Duke and Kentucky early in the season because they are filled with one and done players and usually start slow.  That will be the case for Kentucky, which loses four double-digit scorers from last season in P.J. Washington (15.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Tyler Herro (14.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG), Keldon Johnson (13.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and Reid Travis (11.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG).  Their only returning starter is PG Ashton Hagans (7.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG). 

Michigan State is 26-10 ATS in its last 36 games overall.  Kentucky is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Spartans have won four of their last six meetings with the Wildcats.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday. 

20* Texas Tech/Virginia Championship No-Brainer on Texas Tech +1.5 

Wrong team favored here.  The Virginia Cavaliers are lucky to be here.  They needed four comeback wins in their five tournament games, including their opener against Gardner Webb. 

They only beat Oregon by 4 as 8.5-point favorites, needed a buzzer-beater to send the Purdue game to OT, where they eventually won by 5.  And they trailed by 4 with under 10 seconds to play against Auburn, yet somehow won that game after a Kyle Guy 3-pointer and another Guy 3 free throws with 0.6 seconds remaining to win by 1.   

Their miracle run comes to an end tonight against a Texas Tech team that had been hands down the most dominant team in the tournament and deserves to be here.  The Red Raiders are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five tournament games, winning four by double-digits with the only exception being their 6-point win over No. 1 seed Gonzaga. 

While Virginia gets credit for its defense more than anyone, it’s actually Texas Tech that leads the country in defensive efficiency.  They held Buffalo (58), Michigan (44) and Michigan State (51) to season lows in points in the tournament thus far.  Virginia’s great defensive numbers are aided by the fact that they play at the slowest pace in the entire country. 

This is a complete Red Raiders team with a star in Culver, four players in Moretti, Mooney, Edwards and Corprew who all shoot 38.8% or better from 3-point range, and three dogs on the inside in Owens, Francis and Odiase who handle all the dirty work and are the main reasons this team is so good on defense along with Culver. 

Texas Tech is 14-1 SU & 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  Chris Beard told his team that they were good enough to play on the final Monday of the season before the season started.  They bought in, and he’s arguably the best coach in the country with what’s he’s done with this team in his three years here.  Look for his players to deliver him a much-deserved title tonight.  Bet Texas Tech Monday. 

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +2.5 

Texas Tech’s last three wins have been mighty impressive.  They held a high-powered Buffalo offense to just 58 points in a 20-point wins, then they held Michigan to just 44 points in a 19-point win, and they pulled away late to beat Gonzaga 75-69. 

That win over Michigan can tell us a lot about how this game is going to play out as well.  Keep in mind Michigan State needed three second-half comebacks to beat Michigan all three times they played this year.  They were fortunate to win those three games, so that gives them a common opponent, and the Red Raiders blasted Michigan by 19. 

In fact, Texas Tech and Michigan State have seven common opponents this season.  Texas Tech is outscoring those teams by 9.1 points per game, while Michigan State is only outscoring them by 6.4 points per game.  It’s a great way to compare teams. 

Texas Tech just doesn’t have any weaknesses.  They are arguably the best defensive team in the country, they have a star in Jarrett Culver who averages 18.9 points per game, they have four 3-point specialists who all shoot 38% or better.  And they have unsung heroes inside in Tariq Owens and Norense Odiase who can bang with anyone. 

Texas Tech is 13-1 SU & 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 in their last six Saturday games.  Texas Tech is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday. 

15* South Florida/DePaul CBI No-Brainer on South Florida +1.5 

The DePaul Blue Demons have been hit hard by injuries here down the stretch in this CBI Tournament Championship series with South Florida.  They will be without both Eli Cain (13.1 PPG, 119 assists) and Devin Gage (8.8 PPG, 129 assists), their top two assist men.  And they could be without Jaylen Butz (7.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), who is questionable. 

South Florida was already the better team coming into this championship series.  But now they are far and away the best team considering the Blue Demons have lost both Cain and Gage to injury.  Look for the Bulls to win Game 3 tonight and take down the title. 

DePaul is 1-8 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season.  South Florida is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games.  The Bulls are 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or PK this season.  South Florida is 8-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this season.  The Blue Demons are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with South Florida Friday. 

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -1.5 

The Texas Longhorns have saved their best basketball of the season for the NIT.  They have won four straight to get here, and their last two wins were really impressive.  They beat Colorado by 13 as 5-point home favorites and then got revenge on TCU with a 14-point win as 1-point favorites. 

Lipscomb is very fortunate to make it this far.  They beat NC State on a buzzer-beater in the quarterfinals, then erased an 11-point deficit against Wichita State in the final seven minutes and won 71-64, closing that game on a 21-3 run.  Give them credit for getting here, but their run stops here against a superior Texas team. 

Texas is 7-0 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite this season.  Bet Texas Thursday. 

15* Wichita State/Lipscomb NIT ANNIHILATOR on Wichita State PK 

Nobody has faced a tougher path to get to the NIT semifinals than Wichita State.  They’ve gone on the road and pulled off three outright upsets over Furman 76-70 as 4-point dogs, Clemson 63-55 as 7-point dogs and Indiana 73-63 as 3.5-point dogs. 

Certainly Lipscomb’s run to the semifinals has been impressive as well, winning at Davidson, at UNC-Greensboro and at NC State.  But their run stops here against the better team and the better coach in Wichita’s Greg Marshall. 

Wichita State is 8-1 ATS in all tournament games this season.  The Shockers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Wichita State is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Wichita State Tuesday. 

20* DePaul/South Florida CBI No-Brainer on South Florida -1.5 

The South Florida Bulls have reached the Championship Round of the CBI Tournament to take on the DePaul Blue Demons in a Best of 3 series.  This is a critical Game 1 for the Bulls, who know that their next two games will be at DePaul.  They need to protect their home court. 

The Bulls have done a very good job of protecting their home court all season.  They are 17-5 at home, while Deal is just 3-8 in true road games.  They have won their first three games of this CBI Tournament all at home over Stony Brook, Utah Valley State and Loyola-Marymount.  They won by 9 each of the last two games. 

DePaul hasn’t exactly been that impressive and the competition has been pretty weak in their three CBI games thus far.  They beat Central Michigan by 14 in their opener, but only beat Longwood by 8 as 14.5-point favorites and Coastal Carolina by 5 as 8-point favorites. 

The Blue Demons are 11-28-3 ATS in their last 42 games following a win.  DePaul is 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 Monday games.  The Blue Demons are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Bulls are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games following a win.  The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with DePaul.  Roll with South Florida Monday. 

20* Michigan State/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on Duke -2 

The Duke Blue Devils certainly feel like a team of destiny with the way they escaped with wins over UCF and Virginia Tech in the final seconds.  They certainly won’t be phased if this one comes down to the wire, and I trust them to make the plays in the end. 

Michigan State has had a very easy path to the Elite 8 with wins over Bradley, Minnesota and LSU.  But now the Spartans meet their match finally in the Blue Devils, who were the favorites coming into the NCAA Tournament and the top overall seed.  And it won’t help Michigan State not having Kyle Ahrens and now a banged-up Nick Ward, who suffered a hand injury against LSU. 

Michigan State is 0-6 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in five straight games over the last two seasons.  The Blue Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Duke Sunday. 

15* Auburn/Kentucky Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +5 

The Auburn Tigers are the hottest team in the NCAA Tournament, hands down.  And yet they are catching points here against Kentucky when they shouldn’t be.  The Tigers have won 11 straight coming in, and their last two victories were mighty impressive beating Kansas by 14 and North Carolina by 17 to prove they are for real. 

Kentucky has been fortunate to get by Wofford and Houston in its last two games.  Wofford’s best player went 0-for-12 from 3-point range, and the Wildcats only beat them by 6.  Then Kentucky had to erase a 3-point deficit in the final minute and went on a 7-0 run to close to beat Houston by 4. 

Adding to Auburn’s motivation is the fact that it lost both regular season meetings to Kentucky.  But the Tigers have reeled off 11 straight wins since their last loss to the Wildcats and are a much different team than the one that lost those two games. 

Auburn is 10-1 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS after a combined score of 175 points or more over the last two years.  Take Auburn Sunday. 

20* Purdue/Virginia Elite 8 No-Brainer on Virginia -4 

The Purdue Boilermakers became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to make at least 16 3-pointers in two consecutive games.  They went 16-of-30 against Villanova and 16-of-33 against Tennessee.  I just can’t believe they can keep this hot shooting up for a 3rd consecutive games. 

That’s especially the case considering they are up against one of the best defensive teams in the country in the Virginia Cavaliers in the Elite 8.  The Cavaliers give up just 54.8 points per game and 38.1% shooting from the field, including 28.1% from 3-point range.  And that’s playing in the rugged ACC.  They’ll have an answer for Edwards, Kline and company in this one. 

Virginia is 8-0 ATS in Saturday road games over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 10-1 ATS in road games after allowing 50 points or less over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 44-20-1 ATS in its last 65 games overall.  This is the year the Cavaliers finally get through to the Final Four.  Bet Virginia Saturday. 

20* Virginia Tech/Duke Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +7 

Everyone is making a big deal about Zion Williams coming back from injury.  And since he has, the Blue Devils have been grossly overvalued.  They Blue Devils are just 1-4 ATS since he returned, and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  I think they’re getting too much respect here again tonight. 

What’s getting overlooked is Virginia Tech getting its best player in Justin Robinson back from injury in time for the NCAA Tournament.  Robinson (13.4 PPG, 5.0 APG) is their leader and floor general.  With him in the lineup, the Hokies are capable of beating anyone in the country. 

Virginia Tech beat Duke 77-72 as 3-point home dogs in their most recent meeting this season.  I know Zion didn’t play, but Robinson was out for that game as well.  And Duke is extremely fortunate to still be alive after beating UCF 77-76 after trailing by 3 with only a few seconds remaining.  They got a 4-point possession, and UCF missed two shots at the buzzer that magically stayed out. 

Duke is 2-11 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games this season.  The Hokies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Friday games.  The Blue Devils are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Duke is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.  Bet Virginia Tech Friday. 

15* Oregon/Virginia Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +8.5 

The Oregon Ducks are the hottest team in the tournament and still getting no respect from oddsmakers today as 8.5-point underdogs to the Virginia Cavaliers.  The Ducks are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall with eight of their wins coming by double-digits. 

Everyone should have known they were for real when they dispatched a very good Wisconsin team 72-54 as 2-point dogs.  They followed it up with a 73-54 win over a good UC-Irvine team as 4.5-point favorites in the Round of 32.  To be able to score over 70 points on those two very solid defensive teams bodes well for them against Virginia. 

The Ducks have been defending the 3-point line very well, and Kenny Wooten has been a shock blocking machine inside.  They will be able to slow down Virginia inside and out, and that will be the key in them covering this inflated 8.5-point spread tonight.  They only give up 39.9% shooting on the season and 29.1% from 3-point range. 

The Cavaliers may win this game, but if they do it will go down to the wire.  They have consistently underachieved in the NCAA Tournament, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six tournament games.  Take Oregon Thursday. 

20* Purdue/Tennessee Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Tennessee -1 

I think we’re getting Tennessee at a great value Thursday.  The Vols failed to cover the spread in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games.  Because they didn’t cover when they easily could have, they are undervalued now. 

The Vols held a double-digit lead over Colgate early but managed to win by just 7 as 17.5-point favorites.  Then, they led Iowa by 25 but let the Hawkeyes come all the way back to tie the game and force overtime.  They eventually won by 6 as 8-point favorites.  They could have easily covered both games had they kept their foot on the gas. 

Meanwhile, Purdue is overvalued after covering the spread in each of their first two tournament games.  They won by 13 over Old Dominion as 12.5-point favorites, barely covering.  And they’re really getting a lot of respect for beating Villanova by 26 as 3-point favorites.  Nobody was beating Purdue that day as Carsen Edwards and company shot lights out and Villanova couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean. 

I’m just not a big believer in Purdue because they rely too much on one player in Carsen Edwards to get their points.  Tennessee is loaded with all five starters averaging double-digits scoring.  Purdue won’t be able to beat them up inside like they do most opponents.  Tennessee’s two best players are forwards Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield who combine to average over 35 points and 14 rebounds per game. 

I actually like the fact that Tennessee is now battle-tested after having to stave off both Colgate and Iowa late.  If this one comes down to the wire, I trust the Vols to make the necessary plays.  The Vols are 13-1 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Bet Tennessee Thursday. 

15* Creighton/TCU NIT ANNIHILATOR on TCU -3.5 

The TCU Horned Frogs are taking out their frustration from not making the NCAA Tournament on the rest of the NIT field.  They have posted back-to-back blowout wins and covers over Sam Houston State by 13 as 12-point favorites and Nebraska by 16 as 4.5-point favorites. 

Creighton has also handled its business at home, beating Loyola-Chicago by 9 and Memphis by 12.  But the Bluejays now have to go on the road and face a Horned Frogs team that is 14-5 at home this season.  It’s also a Horned Frogs team that can taste Madison Square Garden with another victory tonight, so they’ll continue to be max motivated. 

Creighton only has four true road wins all season.  The Horned Frogs are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  The Bluejays are 0-8 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six ATS over the last two seasons.  TCU is 14-3 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the last three seasons.  Roll with TCU Tuesday. 

15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Norfolk State +14.5 

Norfolk State has now won nine of its last 11 games with its two losses both coming by exactly 3 points.  They should not be catching 14 points here against Colorado in the NIT.  I expect the Spartans to give the Buffaloes a run for their money tonight. 

Norfolk State proved what it was capable of with an 80-79 road win at Alabama as 16-point dogs in the opening round of the NIT.  Meanwhile, Colorado struggled to get past Dayton 78-73 at home and was fortunate to cover the 4.5-point spread. 

Colorado is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 tournament games.  The Buffaloes are 5-15 ATS after having won six or seven of their last eight games over the last three seasons.  Colorado is 20-36 ATS off a win over the last three seasons.  Roll with Norfolk State Monday. 

15* UC-Irvine/Oregon TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine +5

The UC-Irvine Anteaters proved they were for real by beating Kansas State 70-64 outright as 4-point dogs.  Now they further validate their 31-5 record this season by topping the red hot Oregon Ducks on Sunday in the Round of 32.

The Ducks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers at this point due to going 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But the bulk of their run came in eight games against weak Pac-12 completion.  They did beat Wisconsin 72-54, but they went on a huge run to close that game and shot 54.9% as a team while Wisconsin shot 33.3%.  Everything that could go right for them, did.

The Anteaters aren’t getting enough respect for their 17-game winning streak, and they know it.  They will continue to thrive in the underdog role here Sunday.  This is a UC-Irvine team that beat the likes of Texas A&M and St. Mary’s in true road games in the non-conference.  They aren’t afraid of taking down big conference teams.

UC-Irvine is 10-1 ATS when the total is 129.5 or less this season.  This is expected to be a low-scoring affair, so getting points with the dog is always good when that’s the case.  Irvine is 7-0 ATS vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer FT per game after 15-plus games this season. The Anteaters are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Roll with UC-Irvine Sunday. 

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -5.5

I liked No. 6 seed Iowa State against Ohio State and lost.  The Cyclones are 5.5-point favorites in that game, and they played their worst game of the season.  Only 3 players showed up, and two of them were off the bench.  It’s safe to say that if I liked Iowa State -5.5 against Ohio State, then I certainly like No. 3 seed Houston against the Buckeyes in the exact same price range as -5.5-point favorites.

The Cougars made easy work of Georgia State 84-55 in the Round of 64.  That means they were able to rest their starters, which is a huge rest advantage over the Buckeyes, who were fighting tooth and nail to beat Iowa State until the closing seconds when the Cyclones missed a potential game-tying 3-pointer.

Houston also got to play the earlier game, so they have had a few extra hours to rest unlike Ohio State, which played the final game of the night in Tulsa.  I always like backing teams in tournaments who got to play the early game and won in a blowout against teams that played the late game and were in a dog fight.  The Cougars got a chance to watch Ohio State and scout them afterward.

Houston is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season.  The Cougars remain undervalued because they lost outright to Cincinnati in the Big East title game.  But you could see that coming from a mile away because they weren’t motivated after beating Cincinnati twice in the regular season.  They are ‘all in’ now with their season on the line, and they will make easy work of the overmatched Buckeyes.  Bet Houston Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo +4

The Buffalo Bulls own a 32-3 record identical to the Houston Cougars, who I also like Sunday.  I’m backing the Bulls knowing that they kind of went through the motions in the regular season, and now they are putting both feet forward in the NCAA Tournament, living up to their potential.

That showed in a 91-74 win over Arizona State in their Round of 64 showdown.  And now they take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who lost to West Virginia 74-79 in the Big 12 Tournament.  This is a Red Raiders team that is getting a lot of respect for their run to the Elite 8 last season, but they lost almost everyone from that team.

Give Chris Beard credit for guiding this undermanned Texas Tech team to a share of the regular season Big 12 title.  This is still a very good Red Raiders team, but they’re nowhere near as good as the team that made the Elite 8 last year.  The only key player from that team is Jarrett Culver, and while he is having a monster season, he has to do too much on his own.  Buffalo is a team that plays team basketball, and I’ll gladly take team basketball over one star any day of the week.

Buffalo is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 neutral court games with a total of 145 to 149.5.  The Bulls are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  Buffalo is 20-6-2 ATS in its last 28 neutral site games.  Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  Take Buffalo Sunday.

20* Iowa/Tennessee CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -7.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers after upsetting Cincinnati 79-72 in the Round of 64.  It’s easy to forget that Iowa was getting dominated by 13 points in that game, but had a huge comeback win.  I know because I had Cincinnati, and it was a bad beat.

That’s why I’ll fade Iowa today knowing that they can’t possibly hang with a team the caliber of Tennessee today.  The Hawkeyes have gone 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall and were huge money burners prior to that win over Cincinnati.  I believe it was an aberration, and not the norm.

Tennessee, on the other hand, failed to cover in a 77-70 win over Colgate.  They jumped out to a huge double-digit lead before Colgate came back and made it interesting.  And because they failed to cover as 17.5-point favorites, they are now undervalued.

Iowa is 0-6 ATS after a game with five or fewer offensive rebounds over the last two seasons.  Tennessee is 16-4 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.  Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five games off a win.  The Vols are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten foes.  Bet Tennessee Sunday.

20* Auburn/Kansas CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Auburn -2 

The Auburn Tigers have now won nine straight games.  They are as hot as any team in the tournament.  And I think the fact that they only won by a single point against New Mexico State has them undervalued in the Round of 32.  They led that game by 13 late and the Aggies made a ferocious comeback in the final minutes, taking advantage of several Auburn turnovers.  It was a bad beat for Auburn backers like myself. 

The Jayhawks, conversely, are getting a lot of respect for their 34-point win over Northeastern.  While impressive, we cannot quickly forget their 12-point loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship.  And Northeastern isn’t nearly as good as New Mexico State. 

The fact of the matter is Auburn is a much more talented team than Kansas right now in their current state.  The Jayhawks are still missing two of their best players, while the Tigers are fully healthy and loaded under Bruce Pearl.  The Tigers know this is their chance to do something special, and they won’t let Kansas stand in the way today. 

Kansas is 0-7 ATS in all Saturday games played away from home this season.  The Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season.  Kansas is 0-6 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Tigers.  Bet Auburn Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota +10.5 

I was in my home town of Des Moines Thursday watching games all day at Wells Fargo Arena.  I got to see Michigan State and Minnesota first-hand.  And from my takeaways, I’m convinced Minnesota is catching too many points tonight. 

First of all, it was essentially a home game for Minnesota as they had probably 3/4 of the fans in attendance.  They crushed Louisville 86-76 in what was one of their most impressive performances of the season.  That was a Top 25 Louisville team defensively, and the Gophers did whatever they wanted to, getting layup after layup and cashing in open 3-pointers time and time again. 

I have been really impressed with Minnesota here down the stretch of the season.  They beat Big Ten co-champ Purdue twice, topped what was a hot Penn State team, and also beat Louisville in four of their last six games.  And now they’re up against a Michigan State team that I think they can be competitive with today due to being without both Joshua Langford and Kyle Ahrens, and Nick Ward clearly isn’t 100%. 

I also watched Michigan State losing to Bradley for the majority of the game.  That was a 55-55 game late before the Spartans pulled away for a misleading 76-65 victory.  Bradley is not very good, and they had the Spartans on the ropes.  Like they’ve done many times here down the stretch, the Spartans won the game in the last few minutes.  And if they win today, it will be another nail biter against a Minnesota team playing its best basketball of the season. 

Michigan State is 0-6 ATS after four straight games where opponent had 31 or fewer rebounds over the last two seasons.  The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.  Plus, the Spartans were actually outnumbered by Bradley fans, so it felt like a home game for Bradley too.  This will 100% be a home game for the Gophers.  Take Minnesota Saturday. 

15* Saint Louis/VA Tech TruTV Late-Night BAILOUT on Virginia Tech -10 

Virginia Tech gets Justin Robinson back, their best player.  They are the most dangerous 4-plus seed in the entire tournament now.  Virginia Tech beat Duke late in the season, lost to Florida State in OT, and lost to Virginia by 6.  They showed they could play with anyone down the stretch. 

Virginia Tech is 10-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  They are winning by 17.5 points per game in this spot.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in their last six Friday games.  Virginia Tech is 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Roll with Virginia Tech Friday. 

20* Ohio State/Iowa State TBS No-Brainer on Iowa State -5.5 

Iowa State is fully healthy for basically the first time all season.  And it was nice to see what they were capable of when fully healthy and focused in the Big 12 Tournament.  They won their conference tournament by beating Baylor (by 17), Kansas State (by 4) and Kansas (by 12). 

I think the Cyclones are one of the most talented teams in the country, and they are certainly under-seeded.  I fully expect them to make a deep run.  They have rabid fans that will travel the six hours to Tulsa, and if they make the Sweet 16, it’s only three hours from Ames to Kansas City, which is where the Big 12 Tournament was held. 

Ohio State doesn’t even belong in the NCAA Tournament.  The Buckeyes went just 19-14 this season nd struggled mightily down the stretch.  They went just 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their three wins coming over Northwestern, Iowa and Indiana.  They went 0-5 against NCAA Tournament teams not named Iowa during that stretch with all five losses coming by 6 points or more, and three by double-digits. 

Ohio State is 0-6 ATS when playing with five or six days’ rest over the last two seasons.  Iowa State is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three years.  The Buckeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.  Ohio State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Big 12 opponents.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Cyclones.  Take Iowa State Friday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -6 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are on a roll to close the season.  They are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall and their only losses came on the road to Auburn and Tennessee (twice). 

Plays against an underdog (Liberty) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more, a top-level team (80% wins or more) playing a team with a winning record are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Friday games.  Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last five NCAA Tournament games.  The Bulldogs are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games off an ATS loss.  Roll with Mississippi State Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tennessee -17.5 

Tennessee plays Colgate.  Colgate has no chance of staying within 17.5 points of Tennessee. The Vols will roll by 20-plus in this showdown. 

The Vols are highly motivated following a bad loss to Auburn in the SEC Tournament.  Colgate lost to New Jersey Tech in the non-conference, and they lost to Syracuse by 21 on the road and South Florida by 10 on the road.  They also lost by double-digits on the road to Penn State and Pitt, while also losing to Navy on the road. 

Tennessee is 8-1 ATS after a a game with 5 or less offensive over the last 3 seasons.  The Vols are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following double-digit loss.  Bet the Vols Friday. 

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati -3 

This is my favorite play of any of the Round of 64 games.  This is also the first game on the board Friday, so start your day a winner.  I really think Cincinnati is under-seeded getting a #7 seed.  They went 28-6 this season in what turned out to be a loaded American Athletic Conference. 

Four teams made the NCAA Tournament from the AAC in Cincinnati, Houston, UCF and Temple.  And the Bearcats got their revenge from two regular season losses to Houston with an impressive 69-57 win over the Cougars in the AAC title game. 

There’s probably not a player in the tournament I trust more with the game on the line than Cincinnati’s Jarron Cumberland.  He averages nearly 19 PPG and can get his own shot whenever he wants.  But this is a deep Bearcats team with six players averaging at least 8 PPG. 

One of my favorite things about this game is that the committee basically made up for under-seeding the Bearcats by basically giving them a home game.  This game will be played in Columbus, Ohio, which is just a 90-minute drive from Cincinnati’s campus. 

They’ll be up against an Iowa team that really faded down the stretch, which is become a common theme for them in the Fran McCaffery era.  The Hawkeyes are just 4-6 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only four wins came against Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana & Illinois, which are four of the worst teams in the Big Ten. 

The Hawkeyes needed buzzer beaters to beat both Northwestern and Rutgers, and they needed a late 3-pointer to force overtime against Indiana at home, where they eventually won.  They were blasted by 21 points by Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. 

Cincinnati is a team that plays similar to the way Michigan does.  They are a physical team that slows down the tempo, always looking for the best shot, and they’ll make Iowa play defense for 30 seconds.  The Hawkeyes don’t play much defense.  

 Iowa is better against teams that want to run with them, and Cincinnati does not fit the bill.  The Hawkeyes have been terrible against teams that slow it down and control the tempo.  And that’s how I see this game playing out.  I also don’t expect Iowa fans to travel that well because they have lost faith in this team down the stretch. 

Iowa is 3-14 ATS in road games off a loss over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight eight NCAA Tournament games.  I think Cincinnati is by far the superior team, and with home-court advantage, this is a very short number to have to lay with them.  Bet Cincinnati Friday. 

15* Montana/Michigan TNT No-Brainer on Michigan -14.5 

Montana is a popular underdog, but they shouldn’t be.  This line has been bet from 16 down to 15 and 14.5 even in some places.  I think the value is there to pull the trigger on the Michigan Wolverines in this one. 

Montana is 137th in the Kenpom rankings and played the 301st-toughest schedule in the country.  Michigan is 5th in the Kenpom rankings and played the 19th-toughest schedule. 

When Montana took a step up in class in the non-conference, they lost badly.  Their two toughest opponents in the non-conference were Creighton and Arizona, two teams that didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament.  Well, they lost by 26 to Creighton and by 19 to Arizona.  Michigan is far and away the toughest team that the Grizzlies will have faced, and that’s why they should be able to cover 15 here. 

Michigan is 9-1 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  The Wolverines are 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Michigan is 11-1 ATS in all games following a loss over the last two years.  The Wolverines are 40-19-4 ATS in their last 63 neutral site games.  Travis DeCuire is 7-17 ATS in all tournament games as the coach of Montana.  The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Montana is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Michigan Thursday. 

15* Seton Hall/Wofford CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Wofford -2.5 

Wofford is 29-4 and ranked in the Top 20 for good reason.  They are also 21st in the Kenpom rankings, well ahead of Seton Hall in 56th.  They Terriers are favored for a reason here, and they should be bigger favorites to boot. 

Wofford played one of the tougher non-conference schedules of all the mid majors, checking in at 121st in strength of schedule.  Their four losses this season came to UNC, Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi State, which are four NCAA Tournament teams.  They also won at South Carolina by 20, and beat UNC-Greensboro three times by 29, 30 and 12 points, and that’s a Greensboro team that was on the bubble. 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on Seton Hall, which won four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS to punch its ticket into the Big Dance.  This is a Pirates team that is way too reliant on one player in Myles Powell, who averages 22.9 PPG.  They only have one other double-digit scorer, and that’s Myles Cale at 10.3 PPG.  Wofford has a deadly trio that all average 13.2 PPG or more, led by Fletcher Magee (20.5 PPG). 

Wofford is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The Terriers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  Take Wofford Thursday. 

15* Murray State/Marquette TBS ANNIHILATOR on Marquette -3 

There’s just too much love for JA Morant and the Murray State Racers in this one.  They are a very popular underdog pick because they won their conference tournament and beat Belmont in the title game.  As a result, this line has been bet from 4.5 down to 3.5 and even 3 in some spots. 

I think it’s time to ’sell high’ on Murray State and ‘buy low’ on Marquette, which the betting public wants nothing to do with after losing five of their final six games of the season.  But all five losses came by single-digits as they finally had some bad luck in close games after having a lot of good luck in close games prior to that.  This is still a 24-9 Golden Eagles team and arguably the best team in the Big East. 

Murray State did not impress me at all in non-conference.  They lost the two toughest games they played to Alabama and Auburn, and I would argue that Marquette will be the best team they have faced yet, if it’s not Auburn.  The Racers played the 272nd toughest schedule in the country, while Marquette played the 57th. 

Marquette is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better after 15-plus games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 13-3 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread over the last three seasons.  They are winning by 14.4 points per game in this spot.  The Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Roll with Marquette Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Auburn -5.5 

There’s just way too much love for New Mexico State in this game.  The Aggies’ 30-4 record looks great, and that’s why the public is jumping all over them, pushing this line down from 7 to 5.5.  It’s a complete mistake. 

Auburn is 18th in the NET rankings, while New Mexico State is 40th.  The Aggies are getting docked because they played the 244th-ranked schedule in the country.  Auburn played the 24th-toughest.  Auburn is 13th in the Kenpom rankings while New Mexico State is 53rd. 

When the Aggies stepped up in class in the non-conference, they lost.  They lost to St. Mary’s, Kansas, and Drake.  They also lost to Cal Baptist.  Their best wins came against Washington State twice, and the Cougars were one of the worst teams in the Pac-12. 

Auburn comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Tigers have won eight straight coming in, including two victories over Tennessee, and wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams Mississippi State and Florida.  This is going to be a huge talent mismatch in their favor, and I’m not worried at all about them having a letdown from winning the SEC Tournament. 

New Mexico State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven as a neutral court dog of 3.5 to 6 points.  It is losing by 12.4 points per game on average in this spot.  The Aggies are 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. The Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.  Take Auburn Thursday. 

20* Minnesota/Louisville CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -5 

The Louisville Cardinals are a team I expect to make a deep run in the tournament with wins over Minnesota and Michigan State to start it off.  There’s a reason behind my theory that this team is much better than its record would indicate. 

The Cardinals beat UNC by 21 on the road, blew a 20-point lead at home to Duke, and played Virginia tough twice.  They also already beat Michigan State in the non-conference and beat VA Tech on the road.  If they can play with and beat all of those teams, then they are capable of beating anyone in the country.  They should make easy work of Minnesota Thursday. 

The Golden Gophers really struggled when they stepped up in class this year.  I mean, Minnesota is 61st in the NET rankings, while Louisville is 22nd.  They went just 5-9 against NCAA Tournament teams, including their 49-76 laugher against Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. 

Minnesota ranks toward the bottom of college basketball in all major offensive statistical categories.  They shoot just 43.7% as a team, including 32.1% from 3-point range while averaging just 5 made 3-pointers per game.  That’s why they cannot be trusted because they go on too many scoring draughts. 

The Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.  Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  Louisville is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss.  The Cardinals are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Louisville Thursday. 

15* ASU/St. John’s First Four ANNIHILATOR on St. John’s +2.5 

I really like the talent on this St. John’s team.  And I think they should be favored over Arizona State in this non-conference First Four showdown.  The Pac-12 was terrible this season, and I just don’t trust the Sun Devils, especially with some of the losses they had in non-conference. 

Arizona State lost by 16 at Vanderbilt, and Vanderbilt didn’t win a single SEC game this season.  They also lost to Princeton and had a rather disappointing conference schedule, including their 21-point home loss to Washington State as 15.5-point favorites. 

St. John’s has been battling injuries here down the stretch, which helps explain their skid to end the season.  But now they are fully healthy and ready for the NCAA Tournament.  Led by Shamorie Ponds (19.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG), Mustapha Heron (14.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG and Li Figueroa (14.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG), the Johnnies have a potent trio that can match up with anyone in the country.  Not to mention, both Marvin Clark II (10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Justin Simon (10.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) both average double-digits as well. 

St. John’s is 11-2 ATS after having lost five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons.  The Red Storm are 32-12 ATS in their last 44 road games off a loss by 15 points or more.  The Sun Devils are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big East opponents.  Roll with St. John’s Wednesday. 

15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Norfolk State +16 

Alabama has high hopes of making the NCAA Tournament down the stretch.  But they went just 1-4 in their final five games and missed out.  Now, they have to ’settle’ for the NIT, and I just don’t think they were happy to be here.  That’s going to make it very difficult for them to cover this huge 16-point spread Wednesday night. 

Norfolk State is happy to be here.  It’s a Norfolk team that is 21-13 on the season, including 16-3 in their last 19 games overall with their three losses coming by 3, 3 and 8 points.  They covered in road losses to Michigan and South Carolina earlier this season, and they are certainly capable of hanging with Alabama. 

Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Alabama) in a game involving two average defensive teams that give up 67-74 PPG, after 15-plus games, after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997. 

Alabama is 2-9 ATS after failing to cover three of its last four games this season.  The Crimson Tide are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Alabama is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Take Norfolk State Wednesday.