15* Wisconsin/Michigan Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -6 

I love the spot for the Michigan Wolverines today.  They want revenge from their 54-64 upset loss as 3-point favorites at Wisconsin a few weeks back.  And now they are only 6-point home favorites in the rematch.  When you adjust for home-court advantage based on that first line, they should be 9-point favorites or more. 

But Wisconsin is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, which is why the line has been adjusted so much.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Badgers, who aren’t very good but have been winning close game after close game during this stretch.  I expect them to get blown out of the building by the much superior, revenge-minded Wolverines today. 

Michigan is 14-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game.  The Wolverines are a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by 10.9 points per game in this spot.  The Wolverines get an extra day of rest after playing on Tuesday while the Badgers played in Minnesota on Wednesday.  Roll with Michigan Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -2.5 

Don’t look now but the Clemson Tigers are playing their best basketball of the season and at 14-8, have a great shot to make the NCAA Tournament with a big finish.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming 67-69 at NC State as 5-point dogs.  They have blasted Pitt by 13, Wake by 27 and Georgia Tech by 23 since that defeat. 

Virginia Tech is going the other direction due to an injury to its best player.  The Hokies are without Justin Robinson (14.4 PPG, 5.5 APG) and have been without him the last two games.  Their offense has struggled to get anything going without their floor general as they managed just 47 points against NC State and 64 against Louisville in their two games without him.  This is a team that averages 76.7 PPG on the season. 

Clemson is 10-2 at home this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off a win by more than 20 points.  Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in home games off a win over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 19.3 points per game in this spot.  Take Clemson Saturday. 

25* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco +19 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are starting to just go through the motions.  The competition is so weak in the WCC that it’s easy to do.  But due to their 21-2 record and No. 4 ranking, they are consistently laying huge numbers in this conference.  And this one is too big. 

The Bulldogs have failed to cover three of their last five as 23-point favorites against Loyola-Marymount, 28-point favorites against Portland and 23-point favorites against San Diego.  Well, now they’re up against arguably the second-best team in the conference in San Francisco, and they’re laying a whopping 19 points.  It’s simply too much. 

That’s especially the case when you consider the Dons actually led Gonzaga by two points with under four minutes to play in San Francisco on January 12th in their first meeting this season.  But the Bulldogs close on a 17-2 run and posted a misleading 96-83 victory.  You can bet the Dons want some revenge tonight.   

Few teams have played Gonzaga as close as the Dons as three of the last four meetings were decided by 13 points or fewer.  San Francisco is 17-5 this season, and all five losses came by 13 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer against teams not named Gonzaga. 

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Gonzaga) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1997.  Bet San Francisco Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UCF +2.5 

The Houston Cougars are the 12th-ranked team in the country with their 21-1 start to the season.  But they have benefited from an extremely easy schedule.  For starters, they have played 16 of their 22 games at home this season.  And now they face their stiffest road test of the season tonight. 

UCF is 16-4 this season and one of the best teams in the AAC.  They will be highly motivated tonight with a Top 25 team coming to town.  If they want any shot at winning the AAC, this is a must-win game for them.  It could also help their tournament resume, while Houston is safely in. 

UCF is 11-1 at home this season.  They have beaten the likes of Alabama, Illinois State, Temple, Tulsa and UConn at home this year.  Their only home loss came by a single point back in their second game of the season. 

The Knights are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 72% or better over the last three seasons.  They are winning by 10.7 points per game in this spot.  UCF is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with UCF Thursday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis +4.5 

The Memphis Tigers are coming off back-to-back road losses to Tulsa and South Florida.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they return home to face a Top 25 team in Cincinnati.  I fully expect the Tigers to pull off the upset tonight. 

Cincinnati has been extremely fortunate in close games lately, which has them overvalued.  They have won seven straight coming in, but four of those wins came by 5 points or fewer, and six of them came by 11 points or less.  They’ve haven’t been impressive at all in their last four road games, losing outright to ECU as 17.5-point favorites, needing OT to beat Tulsa by 5, needing a huge second half comeback to beat Temple by 4, and also getting a huge second half to turn a deficit into a win at Wichita State. 

Memphis has been a completely different team at home this season.  The Tigers are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this year, scoring 89.7 points per game on 48.7% shooting.  Their only home loss came to current No. 1 ranked Tennessee by 10.  They beat UCF by 20 as 1-point favorites and SMU by 22 as 3-point favorites in their last two home games, two of the most impressive results in the AAC this season. 

Memphis is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 games off two straight conference losses.  Cincinnati is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after it was called for 10 or fewer fouls.  The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take Memphis Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +3 

It’s clearly time to ’sell high’ on the Wisconsin Badgers, who are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Now they are being asked to go on the road and lay points to a Minnesota team with an identical 16-6 record as them.  It’s clearly a sign that the Badgers are overvalued now. 

Let’s just look at the line compared to the last time these teams played.  Minnesota won outright 59-52 at Wisconsin as 9-point dogs.  And now Wisconsin is getting way too much respect again as 3-point road favorites. 

That’s especially the case when you consider how well Minnesota has played at home this season.  The Gophers are 12-1 SU at home.  The Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Minnesota Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State -4.5 

This is a revenge game for Missouri State.  They lost by 5 on the road to Southern Illinois in their first meeting this season.  And they’ve actually lost nine straight in this series to the Salukis.  It’s safe to say the Bears will be highly motivated for a victory at home Wednesday night. 

Missouri State is 8-2 at home this season.  Its last two home games were probably two of the most impressive wins in the Missouri Valley this season.  They beat Bradley by 18 in their last home game, 55-37.  But the one that stands out is their 70-35 win over a Loyola-Chicago team that made the Final Four last year and is arguably still the best team in the conference this year.   

It’s the same Loyola-Chicago team that beat Southern Illinois by 25 a few weeks back.  And when you compare common opponents this season, it’s easy to see that the Bears are the better team.  They’ve played 10 games against teams that Southern Illinois has also faced.  They are outscoring opponents by 5.2 points per game in those 10 games, while Southern Illinois is actually getting outscored by 0.8 points per game. 

The Bears are outscoring their opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this season.  Southern Illinois is 4-14 ATS vs. good shooting teams that shoot 45% or better over the last two seasons.  The Salukis are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take Missouri State Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Providence -4 

I love the spot for Providence tonight.  They are back home after a brutal stretch in which they played four of their last five games on the road.  And they will be seeking revenge on a Georgetown team that beat them 96-90 (OT) in their first meeting this season. 

Georgetown grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat twice in that first meeting.  They banked in a 3-pointer to force the first overtime, and hit another 3-pointer in the final seconds to force a second overtime, where they eventually won by 6.  You can bet these Friars players have not forgotten and want their revenge. 

It was a rare win for the Hoyas in this series.  Indeed, Providence is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  The Friars get one extra day to prepare too after playing on Saturday, while Georgetown lost at Villanova on Sunday.  The Hoyas were tied with the Wildcats late but went on an awful run to close.  They could easily suffer a hangover from that defeat against the defending national champs now. 

Georgetown is 0-8 ATS after five straight games forcing 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Providence is 8-1 ATS off two straight conference losses over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 14-3 ATS reining a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last three years.  The Hoyas are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

20* Kansas/Kansas State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State -2.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They aren’t even ranked right now despite being 16-5 on the season and 6-2 in Big 12 play.  And they just recently got healthy, which has led to them playing their best basketball of the season. 

Indeed, the Wildcats are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six Big 12 games.  They have gone on the road and beaten Iowa State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State during this stretch with two of those wins coming by double-digits.  They’ve also beaten WVU, TCU (by 10) and Texas Tech (by 13) at home.  Now they’ll be highly motivated for a win here against their biggest rivals in the Kansas Jayhawks. 

Kansas is more vulnerable then I can remember for quite some time.  They lost big man Udoka Azubuike for the season entering Big 12 play, and now they are also without fellow starter Marcus Garrett (7.2 PPG).  The Jayhawks have lost three of their last five games overall with all three losses coming on the road at WVU, Kentucky and Texas. 

Kansas State is 10-1 SU at home this season.  The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Kansas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kansas State is 5-0 ATS in its last five Big 12 games.  This is the Wildcats’ best chance to beat Kansas in quite some time, and I expect them to take full advantage at home tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -2 

The Syracuse Orange are playing too well right now to only be 2-point home favorites over the Florida State Seminoles tonight.  Syracuse is 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall with.  That includes road wins over Duke, ND, Pitt and BC as well as home wins over Clemson, Pitt and Miami. 

Florida State is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Seminoles lost three straight to Duke, Pitt and BC before winning three straight against Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech and are getting too much respect for their three-game winning streak.  The Seminoles are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in ACC true road games this season. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Syracuse is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with FSU winning by 10, 13 and 13 points. 

The Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Seminoles are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Florida State is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 ACC games.  Take Syracuse Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle -1.5 

The La Salle Explorers are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball right now due to their 6-14 SU record.  Bettors see that record and automatically want nothing to do with them.  But a closer look shows that they are way better than that record would indicate, and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them. 

La Salle played a brutal non-conference schedule, but that prepared them for the Atlantic 10 season.  And the Explorers have been a money maker for weeks now.  They are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Three of their losses came by 7 points or fewer.  They have won three in a row outright as underdogs coming in with road wins at Fordham and Richmond, as well as a home win over UMass. 

Conversely, St. Joe’s has been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Hawks are 10-12 SU & 7-14 ATS this season.  They are just 2-9 SU & 3-8 ATS in all road games, including 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in true road games. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  The Explorers basically just have to win to cover here as 1.5-point favorites.  The Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Explorers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with La Salle Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -3 

The Northwestern Wildcats come in highly motivated for a victory tonight off back-to-back road losses to Wisconsin and Maryland.  Now they should be able to get right against the worst team in the Big Ten in Penn State. 

The Nittany Lions are 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS in Big Ten play this season.  They are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss at home to Purdue, and I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat.  This is a real deflated team right now mentally having not won a conference game yet. 

Penn State is 0-6 SU in true road games this season.  Northwestern is 9-3 SU In home games.  The home team won both meetings last season with Northwestern winning by 9 and Penn State winning by 15.  And I think the Wildcats have extra motivation after losing to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Tournament last year. 

The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Nittany Lions are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northwestern Monday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on East Carolina +14 

The UConn Huskies are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as 14-point home favorites over the East Carolina Pirates.  For a team that is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games overall, the Huskies sure are getting a lot off respect here. 

East Carolina has played some of the best teams in the AAC very tough this season.  They beat Cincinnati outright as 17.5-point home underdogs.  They only lost by 6 at Memphis as 15.5-point dogs and by 11 at UCF as 16.5-point dogs.  UConn has already lost to both Cincinnati and UCF this season as well and has yet to play Memphis. 

ECU has UConn’s number, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Last year, they only lost by 4 as 6.5-point home dogs and by 5 as 16.5-point road dogs.  The year before, they beat UConn by 4 as 3-point home dogs and only lost by 7 as 9-point road dogs. 

UConn is 0-7 ATS after four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Pirates.  Roll with East Carolina Sunday.

15* Minnesota/Purdue Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +12 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are playing too well right now to be catching 12 points from the Purdue Boilermakers.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming by a final of 57-59 as 12.5-point road dogs at Michigan.  If they can hang with Michigan on the road, they can certainly hang with Purdue. 

The Boilermakers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on them.  They needed overtime to beat Penn State on Thursday, and now they have only had two days to get ready for Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers come in on three days’ rest off their 11-point home win over Illinois on Wednesday. 

The Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Minnesota Sunday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois State -1 

It’s safe to say Illinois State is going to be highly motivated for a victory over Loyola-Chicago Saturday.  Illinois State had its NCAA Tournament bid taken away by Loyola-Chicago in the MVC Championship Game last year, and the Ramblers turned that into a Final Four run. 

Then, in their first meeting this year, Loyola-Chicago won a hard-fought 67-64 game at home over Illinois State as 9-point favorites.  It was a fourth straight victory for the Ramblers in this series.  Now the Redbirds will be more motivated to win this game than any this season.  Look for them to show up in a big way at home tonight. 

Illinois State is 9-2 at home this season.  The Redbirds are playing very well coming in, going 4-1 in their last five games, including their 14-point win at Drake last time out.  Loyola-Chicago has been vulnerable on the road this season.  The Ramblers are 2-3 SU in their last five true road games with a bad loss at St. Joe’s, and blowout road losses at Missouri State by 35 and Evansville by 19. 

The Ramblers just lost fourth-leading scorer Lucas Williamson (8.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG) to a hand injury.  He won’t be back until late-February.  The Redbirds are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Illinois State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Illinois State Saturday. 

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall -4.5 

It’s a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Marshall Thundering Herd today.  They have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  And they have lost three of their last four straight up.  But it’s worth noting that all three losses were on the road. 

Marshall is back home here where it is much more comfortable.  Indeed, the Thundering Herd are 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.8 points per game on the season.  UTSA is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three true road games, getting upset at Middle Tennessee, and losing by 10 at UAB and by 8 at WKU. 

Marshall is 36-18 ATS in its last 56 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Thundering Herd are 30-12-1 ATS in their last 43 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Marshall) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 36 or more points in their last five games are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Marshall Saturday. 

15* St. John’s/Duke ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on St. John’s +17.5 

The St. John’s Red Storm have to feel disrespected being this big of underdogs to Duke Saturday.  This is a Red Storm team that is 16-5 this season with all five losses coming by 11 points or less.  They’ve essentially had a chance to win every game they’ve played, and I think they’ll give Duke a run for its money today. 

I’ve been real impressed with how well St. John’s has played on the road this season.  The Red Storm are 3-3 in true road games this season with their losses coming to Seton Hall (by 2), Villanova (by 5) and Butler (by 9). They’ve beaten Creighton (by 16), Rutgers (by 19) and Georgetown (by 3) on the highway this year. 

Duke has been vulnerable in recent home games.  They lost outright to Syracuse 91-95 as 17-point favorites, and they needed a big 2nd half surge to beat Georgia Tech 66-53 as 22.5-point favorites.  They also only beat Virginia by 2 as 3.5-point favorites, going 0-3 ATS in their last three home games. 

St. John’s is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Red Storm are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off a game where they attempted 7 or fewer free throws.  St. John’s is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. ACC opponents, which includes their upset of Duke last season.  Duke is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Big East foes. 

Plays against any team (Duke) - off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent against a team that’s off an upset win by 15 points or more as an underdog are 70-28 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Red Storm are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take St. John’s Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida PK 

The South Florida Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  Not much was expected of them this season, and yet they’ve gone 14-6 SU & 15-5 ATS on the year.  And they’re still getting no respect from oddsmakers here as a pick ‘em at home against Memphis. 

The Bulls have been really good at home this season, going 11-2 SU & 8-5 ATS.  They are holding opponents to just 61.8 points per game and 40.2% shooting on their home floor.  They have home wins over UConn by 8, Tulane by 18 and Wichita State by 13 in league play.  Their only loss came to Houston, which is one of the best teams in the country. 

South Florida has a huge rest advantage in this game.  They are working on six days’ rest, while Memphis will be working on just two days’ rest and will be playing its 2nd road game in 4 days.  The Tigers will also be playing their 3rd game in 7 days, while USF will be playing just its 2nd game in 11 days. 

Memphis is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season with its only win coming at Tulane by 4 as 10.5-point favorites.  The Tigers lost by 9 at LSU, by 13 at Houston, by 9 at Temple and by 16 at Tulsa.  The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 AAC games.  South Florida is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. 

Plays against an underdog (Memphis) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) after 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with South Florida Saturday. 

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on NC State -2 

The NC State Wolfpack have lost two of their last three games coming in.  They lost by seven at Louisville and by one in overtime at home to Virginia.  Those aren’t bad losses.  The Wolfpack are 16-5 on the season with all five losses coming by 8 points or less.  They have come back to win in their next game following each loss this season. 

The Wolfpack are 12-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in UNC and Virginia.  They are outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game at home this year.  They should be laying more than two points to Virginia Tech here. 

The Hokies have some serious injury concerns coming into this game.  Justin Robinson (14.4 PPG, 5.5 APG) suffered a toe injury last game and is doubtful to play today.  He is their floor general and shoots 47.5% from the field and 82.5% from the free throw line, so he will be missed.  Key reserve P.J. Horne (4.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG) is also expected to miss this game. 

Virginia Tech has played five true road games this season.  The Hokies are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this year.  Their only wins came by 3 at Georgia Tech as 7-point favorites and by 12 at Miami as 8-point favorites; two of the worst teams in the ACC.  They lost by 22 at Virginia and by 21 at North Carolina.  They were also upset by Penn State on the road, and Penn State still hasn’t won a Big Ten game. 

The home team is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  NC State has won its last three home meetings with Virginia Tech by an average of 15.3 points per game.  The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  It’s also worth noting the Wolfpack are working on three days’ rest while the Hokies are only on two days’ rest.  Bet NC State Saturday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown -2.5 

The Georgetown Hoyas are seeking revenge from a 75-81 road loss at Xavier in their first meeting this season earlier this month.  They should have their revenge at home this time around as only 2.5-point favorites. 

While Georgetown is just 6-4 in its last 10 games overall, all four losses have come by 6 points or less and by a combined 16 points.  This team is much better than its 13-7 record would indicate, but they’ve just had some poor luck in close games.  Six of their seven losses have come by single-digits. 

Xavier is clearly a rebuilding team at 11-10 this season.  The Musketeers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season with losses by 15, 15, 18 and 10 points.  Their only road win came at lowly DePaul. 

Xavier is 0-6 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their attempts this season.  The Musketeers are 3-10 ATS when playing their 2nd game in a week this season.  Roll with Georgetown Thursday.

20* USC/Washington FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on USC +7.5 

This number jumped out to me right away as being too high.  I think it’s inflated because Washington has been a covering machine of late.  Indeed, the Huskies have won nine straight and have covered seven straight coming in.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Huskies tonight. 

USC is playing too good right now to be catching 7.5 points from Washington. The Trojans have won three straight coming in by 13 over UCLA, by 23 over Arizona and by 2 over Arizona State.  They had some injuries earlier in the season, but now they are as healthy as they’ve been all year, and it’s starting to show. 

The Trojans are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall with their two losses coming on the road to Oregon and Oregon State, including one of those in overtime.  And USC hasn’t lost to Washington by more than 8 points in any of their last 10 meetings. 

Mike Hopkins is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less as the coach of Washington.  USC is 71-37 ATS in its last 108 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Trojans are 9-2 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  Bet USC Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +3 

The Boston College Eagles come in playing well having gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  They also upset Florida State 87-82 as 7-point home dogs in their only home game during this stretch. 

Syracuse is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  But they’ve benefited from a home-heavy schedule during this stretch with six of those nine games at home.  And they lost by 22 at Virginia Tech over the weekend. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the past few seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, with Boston College winning by 15 and 15 in its two home meetings with Syracuse.  The Eagles have a big edge in rest here as this will be just their 2nd game in 10 days, while the Orange will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days. 

Syracuse is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last three seasons.  Boston College is 9-0 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games overall rate last two seasons.  The Eagles are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 ACC games.  Roll with Boston College Wednesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama -1.5 

The Alabama Crimson Tide are showing great value as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight.  The Crimson Tide are 7-2 at home this season and have wins over the likes of Kentucky and Ole Miss in conference play already. 

Mississippi State is ranked in the Top 25 at 15-4 this season, but the Bulldogs have benefited from an easy early schedule.  Their true colors have shown in SEC play as they are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS.  They lost two of their three true road gams at South Carolina (by 5) and at Kentucky (by 21).  Their only road win came at lowly Vanderbilt. 

Alabama is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Mississippi State with its only loss coming 63-67 on the road last season.  Dating back further, the Crimson Tide are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Bulldogs. 

Alabama is 11-3 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons.  Mississippi State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five Tuesday games.  Mississippi State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Crimson Tide are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Crimson Tide are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Alabama Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -3 

This feels like a great time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska and ’sell high’ on Wisconsin tonight.  Nebraska has lost three straight and failed to cover the spread in all three against Michigan State, Rutgers and Ohio State coming in.  Now the Huskers are in desperate need of a victory and should play with a chip on their shoulder at home tonight. 

Wisconsin has won three straight and covered three straight coming in.  They beat both Michigan and Northwestern at home, while also winning at Illinois.  But they had lost four of their previous five games and I think this run is more of an aberration than anything.  This Wisconsin team just isn’t very good with few playmakers outside of Ethan Happ. 

Nebraska is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its lsat four meetings with Wisconsin.  It’s only loss came in overtime by a single point.  The Huskers won by 11 and by 12 in their two road meetings during this stretch, and by 4 at home.  I think they should have no problem winning by at least 4 points at home here Tuesday night given how motivated they’ll be. 

Nebraska is 20-2 SU in its last 22 home games.  The Huskers are 16-4 ATS as a home favorite or PK over the last two seasons.  The Huskers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Tuesday games.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Huskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with Wisconsin.  Bet Nebraska Tuesday. 

15* Kansas/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas -1 

These aren’t the same Kansas Jayhawks that we’ve been accustomed to seeing for years.  This is actually the worst Kansas team that I can remember, and a lot of that has to do with the season-ending injury to their star big man in Udoka Azubuike.  They lack an inside presence and aren’t nearly as physical as most former Kansas teams. 

It’s been obvious to see that the Jayhawks have been overrated most of the season.  They have really struggled to live up to expectations since Big 12 play started.  The Jayhawks are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season, losing at Arizona State, Iowa State, WVU and Kentucky. 

Texas certainly wants revenge from its 78-80 loss at Kansas as 7-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  I think getting the Jayhawks at home this time around will make all the difference.  Adding to Texas’ motivation is the fact that it is off back-to-back road losses at TCU and Georgia and will be glad to be back home here Tuesday night. 

Texas is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 home games after failing to cover four of its last five against the spread.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Texas) - revenging a close loss of 3 points or less, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1997.  Take Texas Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on South Carolina +8.5 

The South Carolina Gamecocks have been flying under the radar since SEC play started.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They upset Florida as 12.5-point road dogs, upset Mississippi State as 6-point home dogs, rolled Missouri by 10 at home, upset Vanderbilt as 4-point road dogs, and upset Auburn as 8-point home dogs. 

Now the Gamecocks will be licking their chops at the opportunity to face the No. 1 team in the country in Tennessee.  And with that No. 1 ranking comes expectations that are tough for the Vols to live up to.  That has shown here of late as they only beat Alabama by 3 as 13-point home favorites and needed OT to beat Vanderbilt on the road as 9.5-point favorites.  They did beat WVU at home by 17, but only covered by 2 and WVU is one of the worst teams in the Big 12. 

South Carolina is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Tennessee.  The two losses came by 7 points at home and by 3 points on the road.  The three wins came by 26, 10 and 27 points.  The Gamecocks clearly have the Vols’ number and should not be catching 8.5 points to them at home tonight. 

South Carolina is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 SEC games.  Tennessee is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after two straight games where they were called for five-plus less fouls than their opponent.  Rick Barnes is 4-13 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games as the coach of the Vols.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Chicago -5 

Loyola-Chicago is coming off its worst loss of the season, a 35-70 shocker at the hands of Missouri State on the road.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home Sunday to face Southern Illinois. 

It was a rare poor performance for the Ramblers, who made the Final Four last year and brought back a ton of talent from that team.  They had won five of their previous six games with four of those victories coming by 8 points or more.  That performance against Missouri State was clearly an aberration. 

Loyola-Chicago is 8-3 at home this season and winning by 13.8 points per game.  Southern Illinois has lost four of its last five and shouldn’t be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  The Ramblers won their two meetings with Southern Illinois by 14 at home and 19 on the road last year. 

Plays on any team (Loyola) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 points or more total ion their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games are 54-17 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Ramblers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Roll with Loyola-Chicago Sunday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis -1.5 

The Memphis Tigers are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 16.0 points per game at home this year.  And as only 1.5-point favorites over UCF, they basically just have to win to cover today. 

UCF certainly isn’t playing all that well coming in.  The Knights are 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They failed to cover at home against ECU, lost at Wichita State 67-75 as favorites, only beat Tulsa by 2 as 10-point home favorites, and won in a blowout against the worst team in the AAC in Tulane. 

Memphis is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 8.8 points per game on average in this spot.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Memphis Sunday.

15* Syracuse/VA Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech -6 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Virginia Tech Hokies today.  They have failed to cover the spread in five straight games coming in.  They have also lost two of their last three, so they will be highly motivated for a victory. 

It’s hard to blame the Hokies for their two road losses at Virginia and UNC, two of the best teams in the country.  But now they’re back home Saturday where they are 10-0 SU & 6-4 ATS on the season while outscoring opponents by a whopping 28.7 points per game on their home floor. 

Syracuse is at a huge schedule disadvantage here.  The Orange will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after a home win over Miami on Thursday.  Virginia Tech comes in on four days’ rest having last played on Monday.  And it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Orange, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Syracuse is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots.  The Orange are 4-16 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in a week over the last three seasons.   

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Virginia Tech) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1 

The USC Trojans are 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.2 points per game.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home games with an average margin of victory of 19.3 points per game. 

That includes a 4-0 home mark in conference play with wins over Cal by 9, Stanford by 11, UCLA by 13 and Arizona by 23.  The Trojans have been rolling since getting healthy after a poor start to the season.  And I think they are still undervalued as only 1-point home favorites over Arizona State today. 

The Sun Devils are just 3-2 in true road games this season with their wins coming over Georgia by 2, lowly Cal, and lowly UCLA.  They lost at Vanderbilt by 16 and lost at Stanford by 14.  This will easily be their toughest road test yet here Saturday. 

Arizona Strate is 0-7 ATS off a road win over a conference opponent over the last 3 seasons.  The Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS off a road win over the last 3 years.  Bet USC Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State -2 

The Oregon State Beavers have been a juggernaut at home this season.  They are 8-1 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season.  That includes wins over USC by 5, UCLA by 13 and Washington State by 13 in their three Pac-12 home games. 

Now the Beavers are only laying two points at home against Washington in a game that they basically just have to win to cover.  And the Huskies are in a bad spot here having to play their 2nd road game in 3 days. 

It’s a Washington team that is improved this season, but one that is also clearly overvalued right now after winning eight straight and covering six straight coming in.  They have beaten up on the Pac-12 bottom feeders as they’ve easily had the easiest conference schedule of anyone thus far.  It gets much tougher on the road at Oregon State Saturday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  And the Beavers basically just have to win to cover here.  The Huskies are 2-9 ATS vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less over the last two seasons.  Washington is also just 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +9.5 

The Wisconsin Badgers are laying way too many points today against Northwestern.  They don’t have the firepower to cover these big spreads on a regular basis, and they mirror Northwestern with the way that they like to play, which is slow down offense and solid defense. 

The Badgers come into this game getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their back-to-back wins over Michigan and Illinois.  They covered the spread in both games as well.  But keep in mind they had gone 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their previous five games.  They aren’t all of a sudden a juggernaut. 

Northwestern is playing well since getting their best player in Vic Law back from injury.  The Wildcats went on the road and beat Rutgers 65-57 as 2.5-point favorites, and took care of business at home in a 73-66 win over Indiana as 2-point favorites.  And they will certainly be playing the underdog card here against Wisconsin. 

Home-court advantage hasn’t meant anything in this series of late as the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Northwestern has won outright as an underdog in its last two trips to Wisconsin, winning 60-52 as a 2.5-point road dog last season and 66-59 as an 11.5-point road dog the year before. 

Wisconsin is 1-10 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last three seasons.  Take Northwestern Saturday. 

20* Big 12/SEC Challenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -4.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats are showing that they are contenders in the Big 12 when healthy.  Since getting two key players back from injury, they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.   

The Wildcats have gone on the road and upset both Iowa State and Oklahoma, and they’ve taken care of business at home against TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia.  And now they should have no problem going on the road and covering this short number against Texas A&M. 

The Texas A&M Aggies are one of the worst teams in the SEC this season.  They are just 7-10 SU & 7-10 ATS on the season.  They have lost six of their last seven coming in with their lone victory coming by a ginned point.  They have lost by 9 points or more in five of those six losses, so they’ve rarely even been competitive. 

Texas A&M is 1-9 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Kansas State is 10-2 ATS off a conference home win over the last three seasons.  Bet Kansas State Saturday. 

20* Butler/Creighton Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Creighton -2.5 

The Creighton Bluejays will be out for revenge from their 69-84 loss at Butler on January 5th earlier this month in their first meeting.  I expect them to get their revenge here as they have a big advantage in rest and preparation for this one. 

The Bluejays will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days here.  It will be the 5th game in 13 days for Butler, which has already played seven games in the month of January, while the Blue Jays have only played five games this month. 

Butler has not fared well at all in true road games this season.  Indeed, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 SU in true road games this season with their only win coming at DePaul, which is one of the worst teams in the Big East.  Their four losses have come by an average of 12.0 points per game. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Creighton has won its last three home meetings with Butler by 11, 11 and 8 points.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings dating back further.   

The Bulldogs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games. Butler is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to Creighton.  Butler is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams who make 48% or more of their shots over the last two seasons.  Bet Creighton Friday.

15* Michigan State/Iowa FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +5.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a veteran team that returned all five starters this season.  They are ready to knock off a team that caliber of Michigan State, especially since they’re at home tonight.  And they are certainly playing well enough to pull the upset coming in. 

Indeed, the Hawkeyes are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Their only loss came on the road at Purdue.  The Hawkeyes are 11-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.5 points per game.  They have recent blowout home wins over Illinois by 24, Ohio State by 10, Nebraska by 9 and Iowa State by 14. 

It’s time to ‘sell high’ on Michigan State, which has now won 12 straight while going 11-1 ATS.  The betting public has been all over them, and oddsmakers are forced to set their lines higher than they should be in the immediate future.  They struggled to put Florida, Nebraska and Ohio State away on the road this season, and they lost at Louisville.  I fully expect Iowa to give them a run for their money tonight. 

It’s also a revenge game for the Hawkeyes after losing 68-90 at Michigan State earlier this season.  Last year, Iowa only lost 93-96 at home to Michigan State as 10-point dogs.  And the Hawkeyes are a lot better this season.  Iowa is 12-3 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last three seasons, and 8-1 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two years. 

Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 65 points or less in three straight games over the last two seasons.  The Spartans are 4-14 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team that forces 12 or fewer per game.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Iowa Thursday. 

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa +14 

I love the spot for the Tulsa Golden Hurricane tonight.  They will want revenge from a 65-70 (OT) home loss to Cincinnati on January 10th exactly two weeks ago today.  They were 6.5-point dogs in that game, and now they are whopping 14-point road dogs in the rematch.  This is simply too many points. 

Tulsa is way better than they are getting credit for tonight.  They only lost at UCF by 2 as 10-point road dogs last time out.  UCF is one of the best teams in the AAC.  They also have upset wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas State this season, and they covered in losses to Cincinnati and Nevada.  They’re battle-tested and ready to go into Cincinnati and try to pull the upset here. 

Cincinnati is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes the non-cover against Tulsa.  But they were also upset by ECU as 17.5-point favorites, they only beat UConn by 2 at home as 11.5-point favorites, and they only beat USF at home by 8 as 13.5-point favorites.  They did cover as 5-point favorites at Wichita State, but they weren’t covering until a double technical in the final minutes that resulted in six straight free throws for the Bearcats.  They made all six and the rest was history. 

Tulsa easily covered as 17-point road dogs at Cincinnati last year in an 8-point loss.  And Tulsa is better than they were a year ago, while Cincinnati is a lot worse.  The Golden Hurricane are 9-1 ATS after playing two straight games as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Tulsa is 8-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  The Golden Hurricane are 6-0 ATS vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less this season.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Tulsa Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -1.5 

TCU should be highly motivated for a win after losing three of its last four games coming in.  But all three losses came on the road to Kansas, Oklahoma and Kansas State.  Their only home game during this stretch resulted in a 31-point blowout of West Virginia. 

I feel like this is a get right game for the Horned Frogs.  They are 8-1 at home this season and outscoring their opponents by 13.5 points per game.  They are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  TCU is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss as well. 

Texas has also lost three of its last four coming in.  The Longhorns lost on the road to Kansas and Oklahoma State, and also lost at home to Texas Tech.  They only beat Oklahoma by 3 as 5-point home favorites, and they are now 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS I the last seven meetings.  TCU has won three straight home meetings with Texas, including the last two by an average of 15.5 points per game. 

TCU is 8-0 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Texas is 2-11 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers over the last three years.  The Horned Frogs are 7-0 ATS in home games off three consecutive conference games over the last two years.  TCU is 8-1 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in home games off a loss over the last two years.  They are bouncing back to win by 19.5 points per game in this spot.  Take TCU Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Ohio State +1.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes have certainly burnt me in recent weeks.  They have lost four straight, and I’ve been on them for three of those losses.  But I’m back on them again here in a must-win game against the Purdue Boilermakers if they want to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Buckeyes as home underdogs here.  It’s also a good time to ’sell high’ on the Boilermakers, who have won six of their last seven coming in.  But five of those wins were at home.  They needed overtime to beat Wisconsin on the road, and they also lost to Michigan State by 18 on the road.  The Boilermakers are just 1-4 SU in true road games this season. 

Ohio State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Purdue is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Boilermakers are 2-9 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games off an upset loss to a conference opponent.  Bet Ohio State Wednesday. 

15* Duke/Pitt ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +13 

The Duke Blue Devils are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a huge win over top-ranked Virginia 72-70 on Saturday.  They put a lot of emotion into that game, and they will be hard-pressed to match that effort here on the road at Pittsburgh.  That’s going to make it tough for them to put away this feisty Panthers team by more than 13 points. 

Pittsburgh has been one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Panthers have gone 12-6 SU & 12-5 ATS this season as first-year head coach Jeff Capel has done an excellent job of implementing quality transfers.  And you can bet Capel wants to beat his mentor in Coach K as he served as an assistant at Duke for eight seasons prior to joining Pitt. 

The Panthers are 10-2 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season.  They have already upset Florida State 75-62 as 4-point dogs and upset Louisville 89-86 as 3-point dogs in ACC play this season at home.  And Duke is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers of late, going 0-3 ATS in their last three games, all of which were decided by 4 points or fewer against FSU, Syracuse and Virginia. 

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Duke) - off a win by 6 points or less are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots this season.  The Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Pittsburgh Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern PK 

I love the situation for the Northwestern Wildcats tonight.  They will be seeking revenge from a tough 66-68 road loss at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on December 1st.  Now they have a shot at revenge at home this time around, and they only have to win the game to cover. 

Indiana has lost four straight while going just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  Three of those four losses came by double-digits, and their only win during this stretch came five games back at home against the worst team in the Big Ten in Illinois. 

Northwestern gets an extra day of rest and preparation here having last played on Friday, while Indiana last played on Saturday in a 15-point loss at Purdue.  It will also be just the 2nd game in 9 days for the Wildcats, who recently got their best player in Vic Law back from injury.  He means everything to this team. 

Indiana is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in true road games this season with their only win coming by two points at Penn State.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  The Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in Tuesday road games over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven home meetings.  Bet Northwestern Tuesday. 

15* Texas Tech/K-State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -1 

The Kansas State Wildcats battled injuries through most of the season.  But now they are fully healthy, and they are starting to show their potential.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They won on the road at Iowa State and Oklahoma, and blasted TCU by 10 at home. 

The Wildcats’ only loss during this stretch came back when they were missing a couple players in a 57-63 road loss at Texas Tech as 11.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 6 despite shooting 33.3% overall and 4-for-23 (17.4%) from 3-point range.  Now healthy, the Wildcats want their revenge on the Red Raiders at home this time around. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings, and the Wildcats basically just have to win this game to cover.  The Red Raiders are coming off a home loss to Iowa State and an 11-point road loss at Baylor, and I think they are way overvalued right now. 

That has been evident with the fact that the Red Raiders are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Texas Tech is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss.  The Red Raiders are 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 Big 12 games.  The Wildcats are 28-11-3 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Texas Tech is 0-8 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  Kansas State is 22-3 ATS in its last 25 home games off two straight wins by 10 points or more.  Take Kansas State Tuesday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Western Kentucky -4.5 

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are a lot better than their 9-9 record would suggest.  Each of their last six losses have come by 6 points or less, including the last three by a combined five points. 

One of those losses was a one-point defeat at Marshall, 69-70.  That game was played on January 12th, so the Hilltoppers don’t have to wait long for their shot at revenge.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory here, especially since they also lost by a single point 66-67 to Marshall in the C-USA Tournament last year. 

Marshall is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in true road games this season, and three of those wins have come by a combined five points, so they were very close to being 1-8 on the road this year.  Western Kentucky is 5-2 at home with wins over the likes of St. Mary’s and Wisconsin.  They also have road wins over West Virginia and Arkansas this season.  Those four wins alone show you that this is a very good team. 

Marshall is 0-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  The Thundering Herd are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games off five or more consecutive wins.  Western Kentucky is 6-0 ATS off a home ATS loss where they won straight up as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Bet Western Kentucky Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Drake -3 

The Drake Bulldogs are worth a bet at home today against the Missouri State Bears.  This Drake team has been one of the most underrated in the country all season.  That’s evident by the fact that they’ve gone 12-4 ATS in their 16 lined games.  They are also 7-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this year, winning by 15.1 points per game on average. 

Missouri State is clearly down this season.  The Bears have gone 8-10 SU and 7-10 ATS in their 17 lined games.  That includes a 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS mark in all games played away from home.  The Bears should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers today. 

Missouri State is 0-9 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  They are coming back to lose by 9.0 points per game on average in this spot.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulldogs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Drake is 23-8-1 ATS in its lsat 32 home games.  The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Drake Sunday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +13 

I love the spot for Oklahoma State today.  The Cowboys want revenge form a 63-69 home loss to Iowa State as 4-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  And now they are catching a whopping 13 points in the rematch here. 

Oklahoma State has been very competitive on the road this season.  They have played five true road games, and they didn’t lose once by more than 10 points.  They also won outright at West Virginia 85-77 as 7-point dogs.  I think they are being devalued after getting upset by Baylor at home last time out, but Baylor shot 15-for-25 from 3-point range so there wasn’t much they could do in their 79-83 loss. 

Iowa State is in a massive letdown spot off its upset road win over Top 10 opponent Texas Tech.  They lost outright to Kansas State as 8.5-point favorites in their previous home game.  Oklahoma State hasn’t lost any of its last five trips to Ames by more than 11 points.  And it’s worth noting the Cowboys get extra rest here having last played on the 14th, while the Cyclones played on the 16th. 

Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  They are actually winning these games by 3.7 points per game on average.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -3 

The Memphis Tigers are 9-1 at home this season.  They should be able to handle their business as only 3-point home favorites against SMU, which has gone 1-4 ATS in all games played away from home this year. 

SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last two seasons.  The Mustangs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Saturday games.   

The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with Memphis Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC -2 

Off back-to-back road losses, the USC Trojans return home Saturday.  I fully expect them to get back in the win column, which saw them win four straight at home prior to those road losses.  The Trojans are now 8-2 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 14.6 points pre game. 

The UCLA Bruins are just 1-2 in true road games, getting outscored by 13.0 points per game.  They will be playing their 3rd consecutive road games, which is tough for any college basketball team.  Home-court advantage has meant a lot in this series as the home team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings. 

USC is 20-6 ATS after two straight games where they gave up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds over the past three seasons.  UCLA is 1-4 ATS in tis last five road games.  The Bruins are 7-19 ATS int heir last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with USC Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +9 

This is a good time to ‘buy low’ on Indiana and ’sell high’ on Purdue.  The Hoosiers have lost three straight coming in, though they were competitive in road losses to Michigan and Maryland, two of the top teams in the Big Ten and two teams that are better than Purdue. 

Purdue comes in overvalued after winning five of its last six games overall.  But they have feasted on a weak schedule with home wins over Ohio, Belmont, Iowa and Rutgers, as well as a road win at Wisconsin in overtime.  They lost by 18 at Michigan State in their lone loss. 

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or less, and all five by 11 points or fewer.  The Boilermakers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games.  Purdue is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Indiana Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +8 

This is a dream spot to fade Syracuse.  The Orange are coming off a massive 95-91 win at Duke as 17-point dogs.  Now it’s only human nature for them to suffer a letdown at home today against Pitt.  They won’t be nearly as focused against Pitt as they were against Duke, which is going to make it difficult to cover this 8-point spread. 

It also works in our favor that Pitt has been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  Jeff Capel has done a tremendous job of implementing transfers, and the Panthers have gone 12-5 SU & 12-4 ATS this season.  They have outright wins as underdogs over the likes of FSU, Louisville, and Saint Louis, and three of their five losses came by 6 points or less, including two by exactly one point. 

Syracuse has played better on the road than at home.  The Orange have been upset at home by Buffalo, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech this season.  They also have neutral court losses to Oregon and UConn, and they only beat Georgetown by one as 9.5-point favorites.  They will struggle to putt away Pitt given the spot. 

The Panthers are 22-7-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings, and 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 trips to Syracuse.  Pittsburgh is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Panthers are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games overall. The Orange are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 Saturday games.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games after two straight games where they attempted 10 or fewer shots than their opponents.  Pitt is 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Take Pittsburgh. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wichita State +5.5 

Wichita State has improved a ton since the beginning of the season, which is a testament to head coach Gregg Marshall.  The Shockers have played an absolutely brutal schedule here of late and they’ve held their own.  They took Temple to OT in a game they led throughout at home, they covered as 11-point dogs at Houston, and they upset UCF 75-67 as 2.5-point home dogs last time out 

Now the Shockers get to face an overrated Cincinnati team, and they are catching too many points at home here today with this 5.5-point spread.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost outright as 17.5-point favorites at East Carolina, needed OT to win at Tulsa as 6.5-point favorites, only beat UConn by 2 as 11.5-point home games, and only beat USF by 8 as 13.5-point home favorites. 

Cincinnati is 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season with their two wins both coming by 5 points or less at Tulsa and at UNLV.  They were upset by ECU and also lost by 11 at Mississippi State.  Both meetings were decided by 4 points or less last year and by a combined 5 points.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Bet Wichita State Saturday. 

20* Maryland/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -2.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes come in highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in with two of those on the road.  The only home loss came to Michigan State, which has now won 19 straight Big Ten games.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Buckeyes, who have failed to cover six of their last seven coming in and have dropped out of the Top 25. 

It’s also time to ‘sell high’ on the Maryland Terrapins, who have won six straight coming in and are now ranked No. 19 in the country.  But they’ve played six of their last eight games at home with their two road wins coming against the likes of Rutgers and Minnesota.  Rutgers is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, and Minnesota just lost to previously winless Illinois by 30-plus. 

Ohio State is favored for good reason here despite being the unranked team against the ranked team.  Oddsmakers are definitely tipping their hand.  It’s worth noting that Ohio State beat Maryland 91-69 at home last year as 5-point favorites.  Getting them as only 2.5-point favorites here is a huge value and one of my favorite bets in the Big Ten this season. 

The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Ohio State is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games after having lost three of its last four games.  The Buckeyes are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after failing to cover four of their last five ATS.  Chris Holtmann is 12-3 ATS after playing a game as an underdog in all games he has coached.  Holtmann is 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game after 15-plus game as the coach of the Buckeyes.  Bet Ohio State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +16 

The Santa Clara Broncos have been flying under the radar for weeks.  They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their two losses came on the road to Gonzaga and BYU, and they easily covered in a 6-point loss at BYU as 13-point dogs. 

It’s not like their seven wins have been all against weak competition, either, during this stretch.  They beat USC by 10 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Washington State by 8 as 8-point dogs, and topped San Diego by 12 as 6-point dogs.  With how well they are playing, they certainly should not be catching 16 points to St. Mary’s. 

The Gaels have notoriously competed with Gonzaga for WCC supremacy over the years.  But this St. Mary’s team is way down, and it’s probably the worst team that they’ve had under Randy Bennett that I can remember.  The Gaels are just 11-7 this season.  They have home losses to Harvard and UC-Irvine, and road losses to Western Kentucky, San Francisco and Utah State.  Santa Clara is more than capable of hanging with them. 

St. Mary’s is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  The Gaels are 0-7 ATS in home games off a road win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Santa Clara is 7-0 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season.  The Broncos are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.  Roll with Santa Clara Thursday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +1.5 

The Missouri Tigers should not be home underdogs to the Alabama Crimson Tide tonight.  The Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the SEC as they are 9-5 this season, including 7-2 at home.  They were a dog in four of their five losses to Iowa State, K-State, Tennessee and South Carolina, and they were only a 2-point favorite in a 2-point loss to Temple. 

The Tigers have certainly been through the gauntlet as they also have impressive wins over Oregon State, UCF, Xavier and Illinois.  And now they’ll be highly motivated for their first conference win after losing to Tennessee and at South Carolina to open their SEC slate.  This is a game they can handle. 

Alabama has only played three true road games this season.  They lost at UCF and at LSU, while beating a bad Stephen F. Austin team.  UCF is a common opponent, and while Missouri beat UCF, Alabama lost to the Knights. 

Missouri is 8-1 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  Missouri is 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Missouri is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Wednesday games.  Roll with Missouri Wednesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -2 

The Northern Iowa Panthers played a brutal non-conference schedule that got them ready for MVC play, which will be much easier for them.  And that has proven to be the case as they have played well in their first four MVC games. 

Indeed, the Panthers are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS while outscoring their four opponents by a combined 13 points.  And now they host a team they can certainly handle in Indiana State, which has some ugly conference losses with a 35-point loss at Loyola and a 15-point home loss to Missouri State. 

Bradley is the only common opponent of these teams.  Northern Iowa won 65-47 at Bradley, while Indiana State only beat Bradley 65-60 at home.  Comparing common opponents is a great way to figure out how good teams really are, and we’ll get a lot more comparisons here in the coming weeks with conference play in full swing. 

Indiana State is 4-13 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Northern Iowa is 27-13 ATS in its lsat 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  The Sycamores are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 MVC games.  The Panthers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight MVC games.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +12 

I think this is a clearly letdown spot for Louisville.  They are coming off a shocking 21-point win at North Carolina as 11-point dogs.  And now they are getting a ton of love from oddsmakers as 12-point favorites over Boston College tonight because of that result.   

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Cardinals and ‘buy low’ on Boston College, which is riding a four-game losing streak into play.  Two of those losses came by a combined 4 points, and they covered in an 11-point loss at Virginia Tech in a game they led at halftime.  Their only blowout defeat came at the hands of Virginia, which is one of only two remaining unbeaten teams in college basketball.   

This is a veteran Boston College team with four players scoring 12 or more points per game.  Ky Bowman (20.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG) is an absolute stud, and complementing him are Winston Tabbs (14.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG), Nik Popovic (13.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and Jordan Chapman (12.1 PPG).  They have the horses to hang with Louisville, which will not be 100% focused for this game off their win over UNC.   

Plays on road dogs or PK (Boston College) - off three straight conference losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 55-25 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS after having lost four of their last five games over the past three seasons.  Jim Christian is 13-2 ATS after having lost four of his last five games as the coach of the Eagles.  Take Boston College Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -3 

What more does Ole Miss have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  All the Rebels have done is go 13-2 SU & 14-1 ATS under first-year head coach Kermit Davis.  And now they are only 3-point home favorites over LSU tonight.  Sign me up. 

“Kermit Davis is one of the best coaches in our country,” Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl said. “They are terrifically offensively efficient.  What he has been able to do was give them a little more discipline offensively. They are valuing possessions more.” 

The Rebels are shooting 49.9% from the field, 38.2% from 3-point range and 76.1% on free throws this season.  They are averaging 79.8 points per game while recording an assist on 57% of their made baskets.  The top three scorers on the team all shoot between 40% and 42% from 3-point range. 

LSU has more turnovers (221) than assists (219) this season.  That’s going to make it difficult for the Tigers to win consistently on the road in SEC play.  I think they’re getting way too much credit for their overtime win at Arkansas last time out against a rebuilding Razorbacks team that lost seven of their top eight scores from a year ago. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Ole Miss is 5-1 SU In its last six home meetings with LSU, outscoring the Tigers by an average of 12.2 points per game.  The Rebels are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  The Tigers are 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Rebels are 9-0 ATS as a favorite this season.  Roll with Ole Miss Tuesday. 

20* Kentucky/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia +8.5

Tom Crean has the Georgia Bulldogs playing some great basketball here of late.  They have been greatly undervalued, as evidenced by the fact that the Bulldogs are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.   

Two of their three losses during this stretch came against arguably the two best teams in the conference in Tennessee and Auburn, both on the road.  The other was a 2-point home loss as 3-point dogs to Arizona State.  The Bulldogs are now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season. 

Kentucky is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season.  The Wildcats have been way overvalued in recent weeks as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost at Alabama as 5-point favorites, failed to cover in an 11-point home win over Texas A&M as 14.5-point favorites, and also didn’t cover in a 9-point home win over Vanderbilt as 13-point favorites.  Georgia just beat Vanderbilt by 19 in its last home game. 

The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or more over the last three seasons.  Georgia is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Georgia.  Take Georgia Tuesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh +6 

I fully expect Florida State to let Duke beat them twice tonight.  The Seminoles lost a heartbreaker at the buzzer to the Blue Devils on Saturday, 78-80 at home.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat against the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  I don’t expect them to show up at all tonight at Pittsburgh. 

This Florida State team has been overrated all season.  The Seminoles are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have narrow home wins over Purdue (by 1) and Miami (by 6), as well as a narrow win over LSU (by 3) on a neutral.  They lost to Villanova (by 6) on a neutral, and lost by 13 at Virginia.  They are 0-2 ATS in their two true road games this season. 

Conversely, Pitt has been underrated all season and remains underrated tonight.  The Panthers are 11-5 SU & 11-4 ATS this season.  They upset Louisville at home and only lost by 6 at NC State as 11-point dogs in their last two ACC games coming in.  Jeff Capel is doing a tremendous job in his first season on the job in returning the Panthers to relevance. 

Pitt is 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Florida State is 0-8 ATS as a road favorite or PK over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are actually losing by 5.5 points per game in this spot.  The Seminoles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 ACC games.  The Panthers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Pittsburgh Monday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2 

The Indiana Hoosiers come in highly motivated for a victory tonight off back-to-back tough road losses at Michigan and at Maryland, two of the best teams in the Big Ten.  They should be able to get back in the win column at home tonight against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. 

The magic in Bloomington is back under Archie Miller.  The Hoosiers have gone 10-0 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by a whopping 21.9 points per game.  They have beaten the likes of Marquette, Northwestern, Louisville and Illinois at home this season. 

The secret is out on Nebraska.  They were covering machines last year, and they opened this season as covering machines again by going 9-2-1 ATS in their first 12 lined games.  But they have been getting too much respect from the books of late now, going 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games.  They lost at Maryland by  2 as 2-point dogs, lost at Iowa by 9 as 2-point favorites, and failed to cover as 10.5-point favorites in a 6-point home win over lowly Penn State.  The Huskers are 1-3 in true road games this season with their only win coming by 2 points over Clemson. 

Indiana is 6-0 ATS at home when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Hoosiers are 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS in home games off three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS off a road loss to a conference foe over the last two years.  These four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Hoosiers tonight.  Bet Indiana Monday. 

20* Northwestern/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +12.5 

I love the situation for the Northwestern Wildcats tonight.  They will be out for revenge from their 60-62 home loss to Michigan as 5-point underdogs back on December 4th.  Now they are catching a whopping 12.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

Michigan could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  It is one of two remaining unbeaten teams at 16-0 alongside Virginia.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very hard to live up to.  The Wolverines had failed to cover five straight prior to three straight covers, but those three have come by a combined 5.5 points, so they’ve been very fortunate. 

This series has been a nail biter in recent meetings.  Indeed, each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer, making for a perfect 8-0 system pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Five of those eight were decided by 4 points or less, and two went into overtime. 

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Northwestern) - off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a home favorite against a team that’s off a road win against a conference opponent are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northwestern Sunday. 

20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +10 

I think Syracuse is starting to become overvalued after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Those four wins came against Arkansas State, St. Bonaventure, Notre Dame and Clemson.  All four of those teams are down this season from previous years.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Orange. 

I just don’t like the spot for Syracuse.  In the back of their minds, they know they have their biggest game of the season on deck at Duke on Monday night.  I can’t help but think they are going to be looking ahead to that huge showdown. 

Georgia Tech has been impressive this season, especially of late.  They are 4-0 ATS in all road games this season, only losing by 13 at Tennessee as 15.5-point dogs, losing by 6 at Northwestern as 8-point dogs, winning at Arkansas outright by 4 as 9-point dogs, and only losing to St. John’s by 3 as 3.5-point dogs on a neutral.  They also only lost by 3 to Virginia Tech as 7-point home dogs last time out.  They’ve shown they can hang with some of the best teams in the country, and Syracuse certainly is just mediocre. 

Georgia Tech clearly causes Syracuse trouble as evidenced by their dominance against the spread in this series.  Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Syracuse with three outright upsets.  Georgia Tech is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  The Yellow Jackets are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Syracuse is 0-6 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -2.5 

The Davidson Wildcats are loaded once again this season.  They are off to an 11-4 start with their only losses all coming on the road to Purdue, Temple, Wake Forest and UNC.  But they have handled their business at home and have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. 

The Wildcats are 7-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game on the season.  VCU is 1-2 in true road games this season and will have its hands full here against the Wildcats.  I think Davidson is showing tremendous value as only 2.5-point home favorites today in a game they basically just have to win to cover. 

VCU comes in getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers for its four-game winning streak and identical 11-4 record.  But those four wins have come against Wichita State, Rider, Fordham and La Salle, not exactly a gauntlet.  This will be one for their stiffest tests of the season here Saturday. 

Davidson is 9-1 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 70-38 ATS in their last 108 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Davidson is 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons, winning by 21.3 points per game on average.  The Wildcats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  Take Davidson Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -3.5 

Oklahoma comes into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing two of its last three coming in.  Those losses were understandable as they both came on the road against arguably the two best teams in the Big 12 in Kansas (by 7) and Texas Tech (by 7).  They were in both of those games in the closing seconds with a chance to win. 

Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.5 points per game.  They have beaten Oklahoma State by 10, Creighton by 13, USC by 11 and Wichita State by 32 at home.  They also beat Wofford by 11 and North Texas by 16, two small conference schools that are actually very good.  So they’ve beaten all six opponents by double-digits at home this year. 

What really stands out to me about his game is that Oklahoma has played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the country, while TCU has only played the 130th-toughest.  So I think TCU is being overvalued due to its 12-2 record, but they’ve only played two true road games, winning a close one at SMU and losing by 9 at Kansas.  Oklahoma also gets an extra day to prepare after playing on Tuesday, while TCU played Kansas on Wednesday.  And after facing the Jayhawks and losing to them on the road, this easily could be a hangover spot for the Horned Frogs. 

Oklahoma is 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with TCU, winning those seven games by 15 points per game on average.  All seven wins have come by at least 5 points.  The Sooners are 9-0 ATS as favorites this season.  Oklahoma is 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Sooners are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Take Oklahoma Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +1 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after their 14-1 start to the season.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Red Raiders as they are now road favorites at Texas when they shouldn’t be Saturday. 

Texas Tech has opened 3-0 in Big 12 play, but all three games weren’t decided until the final seconds.  They won by 3 at West Virginia as 4.5-point favorites, won by 6 over Kansas State as 11.5-point favorites, and won by 7 at home over Oklahoma as 7-point favorites in a game they were never even close to covering until the final seconds.  And being overvalued has shown as the Red Raiders are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. 

Texas will come into this game highly motivated for a victory after an upset loss at Oklahoma State last time out.  That followed up two solid performances to open Big 12 play with a 20-point win at Kansas State and a 7-point home win over West Virginia.  Now the Longhorns are back home here where they simply don’t lose to Texas Tech. 

Indeed, Texas is 21-0 SU in its last 21 home meetings with Texas Tech dating back to 1992, which is as far back as I could find.  So the streak could be even longer.  But we’ll use that streak for betting and package purposes today.  Simply put, the Longhorns should not be underdogs in this matchup.  Bet Texas Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -5.5 

The West Virginia Mountaineers come into this game against Oklahoma State Saturday highly motivated for a victory.  They have opened 0-3 in Big 12 play, but could easily be 3-0 as their three losses have come by 3 to Texas Tech, by 7 at Texas and by 2 at Kansas State.  They finally get a team they can handle here in Oklahoma State. 

Indeed, the Cowboys are the worst team in the Big 12, period.  They are just 7-8 this season with very few quality wins other than their upset home victory over Texas last week.  I think they will be feeling fat and happy after winning their first Big 12 game in upset fashion.  The Mountaineers will clearly want this game more, and this is a scary team when they are motivated. 

Plays on home teams (WVU) - off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Oklahoma State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  West Virginia is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last six Big 12 games.  Bet West Virginia Saturday. 

15* Purdue/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -2.5 

I believe we are getting the Wisconsin Badgers at a very cheap price Friday night at home against the Purdue Boilermakers.  The Badgers are a veteran team that returned five starters this season, while the Boilermakers are in rebuilding mode with just one returning starters. 

That has come to fruition as the Badgers are 11-4 this season.  Their four losses have come to Marquette, Virginia, Minnesota and Western Kentucky with three of those on the road.  They’ve also beaten Penn State by 21 on the road, Iowa by 6 on the road, Oklahoma by 20 on the road, Xavier by 9 on the road, and NC State by 4 at home.  They have been through the gauntlet. 

Purdue is just 9-6 this season, and its inexperience is starting to show.  It is really showing on the road as the Boilermakers are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season.  They have also lost to Virginia Tech and Notre Dame on a neutral. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Wisconsin upset Purdue 57-53 at home as 11-point dogs last season.  The Badgers are 8-1 ATS off four straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Wisconsin is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Purdue is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Big Ten foes.  Roll with Wisconsin Friday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois +9.5 

The Illinois Fighting Illini will relish the opportunity to face the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines at home tonight.  It will be a great atmosphere in Champaign tonight, and I fully expect one of the best efforts of the season tonight from the Fighting Illini. 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Wolverines, who are one of the only remaining unbeaten teams in the country at 15-0 this season.  The betting public sees that 15-0 record and automatically bets Michigan, which forces oddsmakers to shade the line towards Michigan.  We saw 15-0 Houston lose last night, and don’t be surprised if 15-0 Michigan goes down tonight.  But we don’t even need Illinois to win, we just need them to stay within 9.5 points. 

I’ve been impressed with Illinois in its last two Big Ten games coming in.  They only lost by 8 as 11-point dogs at Indiana, and by 2 as 7.5-point dogs at Northwestern.  Well, Michigan only won by 2 as 5-point favorites at Northwestern.  And the Wolverines have only played two true road games this season.  The odds are starting to catch up with the Wolverines as they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall, with their two covers coming by just 2 points each. 

The betting public wants nothing to do with this 4-11 Illinois team, which is why it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them.  But they have faced a brutal schedule with nine of their 15 games on the road.  They are 4-2 at home this season with their two losses coming by 8 and 2 points.  They have beaten Evansville by 39 as 16-point favorites and E. Tennessee State by 18 as 6.5-point favorites.  They also beat UNLV at home. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 26-10-1 ATS in the last 37 meetings.  Illinois is 13-4 SU & 10-7 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Michigan.  The Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games off three or more consecutive home games.  Bet Illinois Thursday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +7.5 

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane just aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers, especially when they’re at home.  The Golden Hurricane have gone 11-4 this season with all four of their losses coming on the road to Houston, Utah, Nevada and Southern Illinois.  They were competitive in all but one of those games, too. 

Tulsa is a perfect 9-0 at home this season.  They have upset home wins over both Oklahoma State as 2-point dogs and Kansas State as 6.5-point dogs, two Power 5 teams from the Big 12.  And now they will give Cincinnati a run for its money tonight. 

The Bearcats aren’t nearly as strong as they have been in years’ past.  They have gone just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games this season with their only win coming 65-61 as 7-point favorites at UNLV, failing to cover.  They also lost 59-70 as 2.5-point dogs at Mississippi State and 71-73 as 17.5-point favorites in a shocking upset loss at East Carolina.  This team clearly has some problems on the road. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Tulsa only lost 55-57 as 9.5-point dogs and won 70-68 as 1.5-point favorites in its last two home meetings with Cincinnati.  And this is the best Tulsa team that head coach Frank Haith has had yet, while it’s one of the worst Cincinnati teams that had coach Mick Cronin has had in recent memory. 

Tulsa is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Hurricane are 21-9 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.  Tulsa is 19-9 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three years.  The Bearcats are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take Tulsa Thursday. 

15* TCU/Kansas ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -5 

It’s safe to say the Kansas Jayhawks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off just their second loss of the season, and one of their worst losses in recent memory.  They lost 60-77 at Iowa State over the weekend and committed a season-high 24 turnovers to basically give the game away. 

“The thing that is good about getting beat rather than getting edged,” said Kansas head coach Bill Self, “is it’s very evident we have deficiencies and they need to be worked on.”  It’s also safe to say the Jayhawks will have had a couple of very productive practices Monday and Tuesday leading up to this game. 

TCU is overvalued right now due to its 12-1 start this season and the fact that the Horned Frogs have covered eight of their last nine spreads coming in.  To only be catching 5 points at Kansas is showing how much respect the Horned Frogs are getting right now.  And they have feasted on a very weak schedule with only one true road game thus far, and even their neutral court games have been against soft competition. 

Kansas has already been through the gauntlet and is battle-tested heading into the Big 12.  Sagarin has Kansas as playing the toughest schedule in the country thus far.  They have already faced the likes of Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Villanova, Arizona State, Oklahoma and Iowa State. 

TCU has played the 151st-ranked schedule.  They have only faced one team in the Top 50, while Kansas has already faced six teams in the Top 25 of Sagarin’s ratings, going 5-1 against them.  KenPom has Kansas as playing the 3rd-toughest schedule, with TCU 186th.  So both show Kansas with a massive advantage in strength of schedule thus far. 

Kansas is 14-3 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons.  The Jayhawks are 41-24 ATS in their last 65 games following a road loss.  Self is 14-3 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or less in all games he has coached.  The Jayhawks are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games following a loss.  Take Kansas Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -5

The Ohio State Buckeyes should come back highly motivated for a victory tonight after blowing a big lead against Michigan State at home over the weekend.  Head coach Chris Holtmann was not happy with their effort in the second half, and I expect his players to respond in a big way tonight. 

“We’re certainly not there yet,” Holtmann said afterward. “You let a team shoot 76 percent on your home floor and score 50 points in the second half, then you’ve got a long ways to go.  That’s a fact for us.” 

Now the Buckeyes get to take out their frustration on Big Ten bottom feeder Rutgers tonight.  The Scarlet Knights have lost five of their past seven games overall with their only two wins coming at home against Maine and Columbia.  They lost by 11 at home to Michigan State and by 14 at home to Maryland, and they only beat Columbia by 3 as 11-point favorites. 

Ohio State certainly did not take Rutgers lightly in their two meetings last season.  The Buckeyes won 68-46 as basically identical 6-point road favorites last year.  And they came back and won 79-52 as 14.5-point home favorites in their second meeting.  Given those two results, and the fact that Ohio State is every bit as good as it was a year ago, the Buckeyes should have no problem covering this generous 5.5-point spread tonight. 

Rutgers is 3-11 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons.  Hortmann is 13-3 ATS in road games in all games he has coached at Ohio State.  Holtmann is 12-2 ATS after playing a game as an underdog at Ohio State.  The Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Ohio State Wednesday. 

20* UNC/NC State ESPN No-Brainer on NC State -1 

What more does NC State have to do to start getting some respect from the books? Until they do, I’m going to continue to ride them as they’ve treated me very well this season.  The Wolfpack returned three starters from last year, and underrated head coach Kevin Keatts brought in some great transfers that are really paying dividends this season. 

Indeed, the Wolfpack are 13-1 SU this season.  Their only loss came on the road at Wisconsin 75-79 as 6-point dogs.  And you know this team is underrated when you consider they have gone 11-3 ATS this season.  They are elite offensively, scoring 89.2 points per game on 52.1% shooting, including 40.9% from 3-point range.  And they are very good defensively as well, holding opponents to 66.0 points and 42.4% shooting.  They are outscoring the opposition by 23.2 points per game on average this year, including 29.8 points per game at home where they are 10-0. 

North Carolina is 3-2 in true road games this season.  They beat Wofford Elon and Pitt, but lost to the two best teams they’ve faced on the road in Michigan (67-84) and Kentucky (72-80).  I strongly believe that NC State is one of the best teams in the country and as good as both Michigan and Kentucky, or close to them.  That will show on the court tonight. 

NC State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  It's worth noting the Wolfpack get four days to prepare for UNC, while the Tar Heels only get two days to prepare after playing on Saturday.  That's a nice advantage for the home team here that will pay off.  Take NC State Tuesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois -1 

The Southern Illinois Salukis are one of the best teams in the MVC.  They returned all five starters this season.  The problem is, they lost one of their key starters to a suspension after seven games.  Armon Fletcher (11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) has missed the last eight games because of the suspension, but he makes his return tonight. 

The loss of Fletcher was huge as he shoots 58% from the floor and 47.8% from 3-point range.  They went 5-2 with him in the first seven games with one of their only losses coming 59-71 at Kentucky as 18.5-point dogs.  They have gone just 4-4 without him.  They’ve managed to open 2-0 in MVC play without him with wins against Missouri State and Northern Iowa.  And they’ll be a dangerous team moving forward with him now. 

Conversely, Drake just lost its best player to a season-ending injury in the MVC opener against Evansville.  The Bulldogs were upset by Evansville 77-82 on the road, and they also lost 74-85 to Loyola-Chicago at home in their first full game without him.  PG Nick Norton (14.0 PPG, 5.9 APG, 40% 3-pointers) is irreplaceable.  He has a triple-double this season and had 17 assists in one game.  He was the leader of this team, and he’ll be missed greatly moving forward. 

Southern Illinois has actually played its best basketball on the road this season, going a perfect 6-0 ATS with its only straight up losses coming to Kentucky by 12 as 18.5-point dogs and Buffalo by 8 as 13-point dogs, which are two of the better teams in the country.  I think being a veteran team with five returning starters is the reason the Salukis have had so much success on the road this year.  They improve to 7-0 ATS in road games with a win and cover tonight.  Roll with Southern Illinois Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +8 

The No. 3 ranked Tennessee Vols are one of the best teams in the country, no question.  But they are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers now and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them, especially off their 96-50 home win over Georgia on Saturday.  They will have had just two days to get ready for Missouri now. 

Meanwhile, Missouri has been off since December 29th, getting plenty of time to game plan for Tennessee.  That’s a huge advantage for them.  The Tigers should be highly motivated for a victory in their SEC opener tonight at home. 

This is a Missouri team that has been grossly underrated of late, and has won me a couple bets in the process.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  I won with them as 2-point home dogs in their 71-56 win over Xavier.  I also won with them as a pick ‘em in their 79-63 win over Illinois on a neutral during this stretch.  Now they put their name on the map here by giving Tennessee a run for its money. 

Missouri is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points.  Tennessee is 1-8 ATS after two straight games where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last two seasons.  The Vols are 26-44 ATS in their last 70 road games off four consecutive wins.  The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Missouri Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota -1.5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers should be bigger favorites at home over the Maryland Terrapins tonight.  This is one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten as the Gophers returned five starters from last year and a ton of experience. 

It has led to a 12-2 start for the Gophers, whose two losses both came on the road at Ohio State and Boston College.  They have also beaten both Wisconsin and Washington on the road, as well as Nebraska and Oklahoma State at home.  And they should be able to handle Maryland at home tonight. 

The Terrapins are also a quality team at 12-3 this season, but they’ve done most of their damage at home.  They have only played three true road games this season, losing at Purdue and winning at Rutgers and Navy. This will be their stiffest road test yet as I believe Minnesota is one of the best teams in the Big Ten this year, but they’re not being treated like it by oddsmakers. 

Minnesota is 8-0 SU at home this season and basically just needs to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread.  Mark Turgeon is 9-18 ATS off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent as the coach of Maryland.  The Terrapins are getting way too much respect from the books tonight.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday. 

20* Miami/Louisville ACC No-Brainer on Louisville -6 

The Louisville Cardinals have faced a brutal schedule this season and have managed a 9-4 record in Chris Mack’s first year on the job.  Their four losses have come to Tennessee, Marquette, Indiana and Kentucky with three of those on the road.  They have also beaten Michigan State, so it’s safe to say they are battle-tested heading into ACC play. 

Now the Cardinals will be highly motivated for a win in their ACC opener Sunday against one of the worst teams in the ACC in Miami.  And the Cardinals have been great at home this season, going 8-1 while outscoring their opponents by 16.3 points per game on average.  Their only home loss came to Kentucky. 

Miami just isn’t that good this season, as evidenced by their 8-5 record and 4-9 ATS mark.  The Hurricanes have losses to Yale, Rutgers and Pennsylvania.  They have only played one true road game this season, and that was their 75-89 loss at Pennsylvania as 5.5-point favorites.  They also have some concerning wins as they beat Bethune-Cookman by 8 as 27-point home favorites, Houston Baptist by 7 as 20.5-point home favorites and Campbell by 11 as 19-point home favorites. 

Miami is 1-8 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this year.  Miami is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games overall.  The Hurricanes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. ACC opponents.  The Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Louisville is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet Louisville Sunday. 

20* Kansas/Iowa State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State -1 

The Iowa State Cyclones have one of the best home-court advantages in the country at Hilton Coliseum.  And they clearly aren’t afraid of Kansas, having gone 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with them.   

There’s a reason Iowa State is favored here despite being unranked with Kansas being the No. 6 team in the country.  Kansas is clearly overrated as they are 12-1, but seven of their wins have come by single-digits.  They aren’t blowing teams out, and they have been fortunate in close games.  Kansas has only played one true road game this season at Arizona State, and that was their only loss this season by a final of 76-80. 

Iowa State has done a good job of getting to 11-2 this season with all of their injuries and suspensions.  Four key players have miss significant time as Lindell Wigginton has missed 10 games, Cameron Lard has missed 7, Zoran Talley Jr. has missed 7 and Solomon Young has missed 11.  But all four are back healthy now, and this is going to be a dangerous team moving forward. 

The Cyclones are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Kansas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Saturday games.  The Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Iowa State Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State -5 

Illinois State is an experienced team that returned four starters this season.  Evansville is in rebuilding mode with just one returning starter.  But both teams sit at 7-7 on the season, so they are looked at as close to even teams.  That’s not the case at all. 

Illinois State has played the much tougher schedule this year, and they come in undervalued after losing five of their last six.  Well, those five losses have come to Ole Miss, San Diego State, Illinois-Chicago, UCF and Valpo with three of those true road games.  They also beat BYU before that, and have beaten Akron and Boise State while losing to Georgia.  Another loss came to Belmont in a true road game, which is one of the best non-power 5 teams in the country. 

Evansville has been a great home team through the years, but a terrible road team.  And that has been the case again this year.  Evansville is 0-6 in true road games this season while losing by 11.7 points per game on average. 

The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Illinois State is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games following a loss.  The Redbirds are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. MVC opponents.  Now that they’re into the MVC portion of the schedule, the competition gets weaker and they will get stronger.  Take Illinois State Saturday. 

15* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE DAY on TCU -7.5 

The TCU Horned Frogs are legit Big 12 title contenders this season.  They returned three starters and a ton of experience.  That has led to an 11-1 start this season.  This team continues to be grossly undervalued, as evidenced by their perfect 8-0 ATS run over their last eight games overall coming in. 

Now the Horned Frogs will be highly motivated for their home opener against Baylor, especially since they’ve been off since Christmas Day.  It’s safe to say they know Baylor inside and out having nearly two weeks to prepare for them. 

This is a rebuilding Baylor team that returned just one starter from last year.  That has been evidenced by their shaky 8-4 start to the season.  They lost to Texas Southern outright as 22-point home favorites.  They only beat Prairie View A&M by 11 as 16.5-point home favorites.  They only beat South Dakota by 6 as 14-point home favorites.  They were upset by Stephen F. Austin as 13.5-point home favorites.  Those four results alone show that they are a rebuilding team, and there have been other poor results as well. 

Baylor is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Baylor is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  The Horned Frogs are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  TCU is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Horned Frogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Horned Frogs.  Roll with TCU Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +16.5 

The No. 10 Virginia Tech Hokies are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as 16.5-point favorites over the Boston College Eagles.  They are getting this respect due to their Top 10 ranking, but they will be hard-pressed to put away the Eagles by this margin. 

Boston College is one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They returned four starters and are off to a 9-3 start.  Most impressively, the Eagles have played their best on the road, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS on the highway.  They beat last year’s Final Four Cinderella in Loyola 78-66 as 4-point dogs on a neutral, handled Wyoming 88-76 as 8-point favorites on a neutral, and upset DePaul 65-62 as 4.5-point road dogs. 

Boston College has clearly played the tougher schedule of these two teams, and their three losses have all come by 7 points or fewer.  Virginia Tech lost to Penn State, and their only other decent wins have come against Washington, Notre Dame and Purdue.  But Purdue and Notre Dame are way down this year. 

I think Boston College is getting docked too much for its upset loss to Hartford last time out, but it was a clear lookahead spot with their ACC opener against the Hokies on deck.  Well, the Eagles are 21-4 ATS in their last 25 road games off an upset loss as a favorite, and 15-2 ATS in their last 17 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven trips to Virginia Tech.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Boston College Saturday. 

20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State +3 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are getting zero respect at home here today as underdogs to the Michigan State Spartans.  The Buckeyes are 12-1 this season and one of the best teams in the country.  Keep in mind they went 15-3 in the Big Ten last year as well. 

Michigan State will be without one of its best players today in Joshua Langford, who is averaging 15.0 points per game this season.  His absence is a big one as he’s one of their three best players, and it’s not being factored into this line enough. 

Home-court advantage is not being factored in enough, either.  The home team is 13-1 SU in the last 14 meetings in this series.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Michigan State is 1-10 ATS in road games off five or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Bet Ohio State Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State -1.5 

The NC State Wolfpack are one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about.  Head coach Kevin Keatts is doing a tremendous job with his three returning starters and several key transfers that are playing big roles this season.  They are scoring 89.4 points per game on 52.6% shooting this season, and giving up just 64.8 points per game on 42.1% shooting.  They shoot 41.4% from 3-point range as a team. 

The Wolfpack are off to a 12-1 start this year.  Their only loss came on the road at Wisconsin 75-79 as 6-point underdogs.  They have beaten the likes of Auburn, Penn State and Vanderbilt along the way while going 10-3 ATS in their 13 games, a sign of just how undervalued they’ve been. 

Miami is a mess.  The Hurricanes are just 8-4 SU & 4-8 ATS this season.  They have lost to Seton Hall, Rutgers, Yale and Pennsylvania.  They also have narrow wins over Bethune-Cookman (78-70) as 27-point home favorites, Fresno State (78-76) as 8-point neutral court favorites, Houston Baptist (80-73) as 20.5-point home favorites and Campbell (73-62) as 19-point favorites.  Letting those teams hang around is a sign that they just aren’t that good. 

Miami is 1-7 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Hurricanes are 11-29 ATS in their last 40 home games.  Miami is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. ACC opponents.  The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Roll with NC State Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Villanova -11.5 

Oddsmakers just don’t price Villanova correctly despite winning two national championships the last three years.  It’s hard to believe, but that’s been the case.  The Wildcats are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games overall, including 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Just this season alone, the Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. 

Now Villanova will be highly motivated for their conference opener tonight against DePaul.  It’s a DePaul team the Wildcats have dominated.  Indeed, Villanova is 16-0 SU in its last 16 meetings with DePaul.  In fact, The Wildcats have won 11 of their last 12 meetings with the Blue Demons by 13 or more points.  They won by 18 on the road and by 31 at home in their two meetings last year. 

DePaul has an 8-4 record thus far, but they are clearly not that good.  Their eight wins have come against Bethune-Cookman, Morgan State, PennState, Cleveland State, Florida A&M, Chicago State, Illinois-Chicago and Incarnate Word.  They have lost to the four best teams they’ve faced in Notre Dame, Northwestern, Boston College and Xavier.  They went 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS against those four teams.  And now Villanova will be the best team they’ve faced yet. 

Villanova is 9-0 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 12-1 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game over the last two seasons.  Villanova is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These three trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Wildcats tonight.  Roll with Villanova Wednesday. 

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -2 

The Drake Bulldogs have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They are 11-2 SU & 10-1 ATS this season, including 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in all road games.  And once again they’re not getting the respect they deserve here as only 2-point favorites over Evansville. 

This is an Evansville team that returned just one starter this season and simply is not very good.  The Purple Aces are just 6-7 this season despite playing a very easy schedule.  They don’t have an impressive win yet as they were favored in five of those six victories. 

Drake is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  It has upset wins over Boise State, North Dakota State, New Mexico State and San Diego with three of those four coming on the road.  Its two losses this season have come on the road to Colorado and Iowa State, and they played Iowa State very tough and only lost by 9 as 13.5-point dogs in a game that they actually led in the second half before the Cyclones pulled away late.  They’ll handle the Purple Aces tonight.  Take Drake. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -1 

It should be a rowdy atmosphere at Maryland tonight with No. 24 Nebraska coming to down.  And I think it’s telling that Maryland is favored in this game, as they should be despite being unranked.  They should take down the Huskers at home tonight. 

Maryland is 10-3 this season with its three losses coming to Virginia (71-76), Purdue (60-62) and Seton Hall (74-78) by a combined 11 points.  That’s how close they are to being 13-0.  And if they were, they would be a much bigger favorite tonight.  None of those were bad losses. 

Nebraska is 11-2, but it is getting too much credit for its wins over Oklahoma State and Clemson.  Both of those two teams are way down this season.  They lost to the two best teams they’ve faced in Minnesota (by 7) and Texas Tech (by 18).  And I think Maryland is close to being as good as both those teams, if not better. 

Maryland is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games after covering four of their last five ATS.  The Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The days of Nebraska being undervalued are over.  They’ve gone 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  The betting public has caught on by now.  Bet Maryland Wednesday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah +7.5 

Nevada went into Christmas Break feeling fat and happy due to their 12-0 record and No. 6 national ranking.  And with that ranking comes expectations for oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  It started to show prior to the break. 

Nevada has gone 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  They won all four games straight up, but all four were by 8 points or less, including three by 6 points or fewer.  And it’s not like it was that tough of a schedule as the four opponents were ASU, Grand Canyon, South Dakota State and Akron.  Now they are laying 7.5 points on the road to Utah, which is simply too much. 

Utah will be chomping at the bit to try and get a win over a Top 10 team here.  The Utes have had one of the best home-court advantages in the country over time as well.  They are 5-0 at home this season and winning by nearly 20 points per game on average. 

Utah is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games off an ATS loss.  Utah’s head coach s 23-9 ATS in Saturday home games as the coach of the Utes.  Take Utah Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on BYU +10 

I like the situation for BYU today.  They return from Christmas Break motivated after losing two hard-fought games against UNLV and San Diego State in their two games prior to the break.  They’ll be laying it all on the line to get a win today. 

Mississippi State returns from Christmas Break feeling fat and happy with their 11-1 record and No. 19 ranking nationally.  There were signs going into the break that were not good.  They only beat Wofford by 11 and Wright State by 4 both at home in their final two games before the break. 

Now the Bulldogs take a big step up in class here against BYU.  Home teams don’t have much of an advantage over Christmas Break because students return home to see their families, and the arenas just aren’t as rowdy.  The Bulldogs won’t enjoy the normal home-court advantage they’ll get when the students return to class. 

Mississippi State is 2-9 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game over the last two years.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (BYU) - explosive offensive team that scores 84-plus points per game, after a combined score of 165 or more in two straight games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet BYU Saturday. 

15* Bucknell/TCU ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Bucknell +13 

Bucknell got to play before TCU last night.  TCU finished its game after midnight.  I always think that’s an advantage to play before your opponent in these tournaments.  You get more rest, plus you get to watch your opponent after the game and scout them.  It seems obvious, but I don’t think it gets factored enough into the line. 

We’ll certainly ‘sell high’ on TCU, which is now 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall since getting upset by Lipscomb 64-73 as 12.5-point home favorites on November 20th.  But those six wins have come against some bad opponents.  Bucknell will give them more of a run for their money than this line suggests. 

Bucknell has done well to get to 5-5 this season.  Check out these upsets the’ve pulled off.  Bucknell won 88-85 as 10-point road dogs at St. Bonaventure, 69-61 as 10.5-point road dogs at Vermont, 92-79 as a pick’ ‘em at LaSalle, and yesterday they upset Rhode Island 84-82 as 6-point dogs.  And I haven’t even mentioned their most impressive performance yet, which came in a losing effort.  Bucknell only lost 71-73 as 19-point road dogs at Ohio State, which is one of the best teams in the country. 

Bucknell is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Bison are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game.  Bucknell is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Bison are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  TCU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after forcing 19 or more turnovers in three consecutive games coming in.  Roll with Bucknell Sunday. 

20* Illinois/Missouri Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri -1 

It’s time for Illinois’ five-game winning streak in this rivalry series to come to an end.  All five of those wins over Missouri have come by 9 points or less and by a combined 24 points, or an average of 4.8 points per game.  So the Tigers have suffered heartbreaking loss after heartbreaking loss in this series. 

It’s safe to say Missouri will be max motivated to end this streak.  And for once, they finally have the team to do it.  I have no doubt the Tigers are the better team this year and it will show on the court Saturday night. 

Missouri returned three starters and a ton of talent.  The Tigers are off to a 7-3 start this season with their only losses coming to Iowa State, Kansas State and Temple with two of those on the road.  They upset both UCF and Xavier at home, and also upset Oregon State on a neutral.  They have been battle-tested and I was very impressed with their 15-point win over Xavier last time out, their fourth straight victory and third straight by 15-plus points. 

Illinois only returned one starter this season in a rebuilding year.  That has been evident with a 4-7 start to the season with their only wins coming against Evansville, Mississippi Valley State, UNLV and East Tennessee State.  All four of those wins came at home.  Illinois is 0-6 in all road games true and neutral this season. 

Missouri makes 38.6% of their 3-point attempts this season.  Illinois is 2-10 ATS in road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their attempts over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illii are 4-12 ATS following an ATS win over the last two years.  The Tigers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet Missouri Saturday. 

15* Ohio State/UCLA CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Ohio State -6 

Ohio State is one of the better teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 10-1 start under Chris Holtmann, who is already doing big things for the Buckeyes just as he did at Butler before him.  They went 25-9 last season and 15-3 in Big Ten play and certainly are a contender to win the Big Ten this season. 

UCLA is a mess under Steve Alford.  The Bruins are just 7-4 this season.  They lost by 20 to Michigan State, by 16 to North Carolina, by 29 to Cincinnati and were upset by Beltmont.  All seven of their wins have come at home, while they are 0-3 in either neutral or true road games. 

That 29-point loss at Cincinnati is a important.  That’s because that gives these teams a common opponent.  Well, Ohio State won 64-56 as 4.5-point dogs at Cincinnati earlier this season.  IUPU-Fort Wayne is also a common opponent.  Ohio State beat them by 46 while UCLA beat them by 25.  And given those results, the Buckeyes should have no problem covering this 6-point spread on a neutral against the Bruins today. 

Ohio State is 12-3 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Bruins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Ohio State Saturday. 

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -2.5 

Buffalo’s 11-0 start to the season and winning streak comes to an end tonight.  It’s been a good run for the Bulls, but this is by far their stiffest test of the season here against a Top 25 team in Marquette.  And the Golden Eagles are only laying 2.5 points at home tonight, which is an absolute gift. 

Buffalo is coming off a huge 71-59 upset win as 3.5-point dogs at Syracuse just a few days ago on Tuesday.  I don’t think they’ll be able to follow up that win with the kind of effort it’s going to take to beat Marquette tonight.  Syracuse is way down this season and was upset at home in its previous game while barely beating Georgetown by one point in its home game prior to that.  The fact of the matter is that win over Syracuse just wan’t that impressive. 

Marquette is 9-2 this season with its only losses coming in a true road game at Indiana and on a neutral to top-ranked Kansas.  But the Golden Eagles have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 8-0 at home this season and winning by 18.5 points per game.  They have beaten Kansas State (by 12) and Wisconsin (by 5) at home this season already, two quality Power 5 conference teams.  So they are battle-tested as they also have a neutral court win over Louisville. 

Buffalo is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games vs. Big East opponents, losing by 23.0 PPG on average.  Marquette is 6-0 ATS after playing three consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  Take Marquette Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on UC-Irvine +8.5 

UC-Irvine has been a Big West powerhouse, finishing no worse than second in the conference over the last five years.  And now the Anteaters returned all five starters this season and are one of the better non-Power 5 teams in the country. 

The Anteaters are off to an 11-2 start this season with their only losses coming to two other non-Power 5 powerhouses in Utah State and Toledo.  They have outright upsets in true road games at Texas A&M as 4.5-point dogs and at St. Mary’s as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they are catching too many points tonight at Butler as 8.5-point dogs, which is their largest underdog role this season. 

Butler just hasn’t been that impressive at 8-3 SU & 4-7 ATS this season.  It’s a Butler team that lost two starters from last season, including their best player in Kelan Martin (21.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG).  They have already been upset by Dayton, Saint Louis and Indiana.  Heck, they are coming off a 76-67 home win of Presbyterian on Tuesday as 21-point favorites.  If Presbyterian can stay within 9 of them, I think UC-Irvine will have a chance to pull the upset, let alone stay within 8.5 points. 

Butler is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of their games.  Plays on road teams (UC-Irvine) - after allowing 55 points or less in three straight games, with two-plus more starters returning from last year than their opponent are 52-20 (72.2%) ATS since 1997.  The Anteaters are an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Roll with UC-Irvine Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -4 

The Houston Cougars are 10-0 and the No. 21 ranked team in the country.  They have a 23-game home winning streak in tact.  So laying only 4 points at home with them here against Utah State tonight is certainly a discount as I expect them to extend that home winning streak to 24 while covering this short number. 

The Cougars have beaten all comers by at least 4 points this season.  They have beaten the likes of Oregon, LSU and Saint Louis at home, as well as both BYU and Oklahoma State on the road.  And that BYU game is significant because it gives these teams a common opponent.   

Houston won 76-62 at BYU, while Utah State lost 80-95 at BYU.  The Aggies also lost to Arizona State on a neutral.  No question the Aggies are a quality team in the Mountain West, but this is a big step up in class for them, and when they’ve stepped up they’ve lost.  Their best win this season came against a down St. Mary’s team on a neutral. 

Utah State is 0-8 ATS in road games after scoring 85 points or more over the last three seasons.  Houston is 7-0 ATS off two straight games as a home favorite over the last three years.  The Cougars are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Cougars.  Roll with Houston Thursday. 

20* Auburn/NC State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on NC State +2 

NC State is loaded this season.  The Wolfpack brought back three starters from last year, and then added in some tremendous college-ready transfers in Devon Daniels, C.J. Bryce, Blake Harris, Wyatt Walker and Eric Lockett.  They brought back senior Torin Dorn, sharp-shooter Braxton Beverly and junior Markell Johnson, who led the ACC with 7.3 assists per game last year. 

The Wolfpack are off to a 9-1 start this season with their only loss coming 75-79 at Wisconsin as 6-point dogs.  They have been undervalued all season as they are 8-2 ATS.  They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 25.3 points per game on the year with an offense that puts up 88.9 points per game on 51.5% shooting, and a defense that allows just 63.6 points per game on 40.9% shooting. 

Dorn (16.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 45.8% 3-pointers this season) and Johnson (12.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 47.5% 3-pointers) are doing their thing, while Bryce (12.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 42.9% 3-pointers) and Daniels (9.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG) are contributing right away as transfers.  As you can see, all of their top scorers shoot the lights out from 3-point range, and that’s a big reason why their offense is so efficient. 

It will be a packed house tonight for the Wolfpack in anticipation of the No. 7 Auburn Tigers coming to town.  That Top 10 ranking has had the Tigers grossly overvalued here of late as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, failing to cover the spread by a combined 35 points in those three games.  That includes their narrow 75-71 win over UAB as 20.5-point favorites last time out. 

Auburn lost its toughest game to Duke, and it doesn’t have many impressive wins this season.  Their best wins have come against Arizona, Xavier and Washington.  Well, Arizona and Xavier are way down this year, and Washington was a home game.  In fact, this will be the first true road game all season for Auburn.  I love fading teams in their first true road game of the season, especially when they haven’t had one this late in the season. 

Auburn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games with a total of 155 to 159.5.  NC State is 9-1 ATS in home games with a total of 150 to 159.5 over the lats two seasons.  The Wolfpack are 10-1 ATS in home games after having won five or six of their last seven games over the past three seasons.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  These four trends combine for a 33-2 system backing the Wolfpack tonight.  Take NC State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri +3 

Xavier is getting too much respect for what it has done in the past, including a 29-6 season last year.  But they lost nearly everyone in G Trevon Bluiett, G J.P. Macura, F Kerem Kanter, F Kaiser Gates and F Sean O’Mara from last year’s team.  They also lost head coach Chris Mack to Louisville.  Their leading returning scorer averaged just 8.7 PPG and they are clearly rebuilding. 

That has been evident in Xavier’s 7-4 SU & 4-6 ATS start tot he season.  And they’ve only played one true road game this season, which was a 15-point loss at Cincinnati as 6.5-point dogs.  They also lost to SDSU and Auburn on a neutral, as well as Wisconsin at home.  Their seven wins have come against IUPUI, Evansville, Illinois, Miami Ohio, Oakland, Ohio and Eastern Kentucky with six of those wins coming at home. 

Missouri is an improved team this season with three returning starters and some nice talent for Cuonzo Martin.  The Tigers are 6-3 with two of their losses coming on the road to very good Iowa State and Kansas State teams.  They did lose at home to Temple 77-79, but Temple is arguably the best team in the AAC.  They beat UCF, another AAC title contender outright as underdogs.  They also upset Oregon State on a neutral.  They should not be home dogs to Xavier tonight. 

The Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The Musketeers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Xavier is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  My final factor favoring Missouri is that they have had 10 days off to prepare for Xavier, while the Musketeers only have two days to get ready for the Tigers after playing on Saturday.  Roll with Missouri Tuesday. 

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -6.5 

The West Virginia Mountaineers should roll the Rhode Island Rams today at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut.  They are the more talented, more experienced team and this is really a shorter number than it should be Sunday afternoon. 

The Mountaineers returned four players who averaged at least 8.7 points per game from last year’s team.  And I think they are being undervalued right now because they already have three losses on the season against a difficult schedule.  But they also have wins by 7 points or more against St. Joe’s, Valpo and Pitt, and they are playing a lot better since a slow start.  They’ve gone 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming as dogs to Florida on a neutral. 

Rhode Island is clearly a rebuilding team.  Dan Hurley bolted for greener pastures in the offseason, and it’s no surprise he left when he did because the Rams lost a ton of talent.  They only have one returning starter, and lose five players who combined to average 53.6 points per game last year.  That’s a lot of production gone.  They don’t return a single double-digit scorer from last year’s team that went 26-8. 

The early struggles during a 4-3 start for the Rams are not surprising.  Their four wins have come against Bryant, Harvard (by 2), Brown and Holy Cross with three of those at home.  They lost by 11 at Charleston as 2.5-point dogs, were upset at home by Stony Brook by 10 despite being 10.5-point favorites, and lost by 9 at Providence as 7-point dogs.  So they’ve played an extremely weak schedule, and yet at just 4-3. 

West Virginia is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the past three seasons.  The Mountaineers are once again a tremendous rebounding team, which is the one thing the Rams do well.  Rhode Island has terrible guard play as they are shooting just 39.9% from the field and 20.3% from 3-point range on the season.  That’s not going to cut it in today’s college basketball.  The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Roll with West Virginia Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +9 

Wichita State is clearly in rebuilding mode.  The Shockers only returned one starter this season and lost almost every key player from last year’s team that went 25-8.  The only key returnee is SF Markis McDuffie, who is the top returning scorer at only 8.3 PPG. 

It’s no wonder the Shockers are off to a shaky 5-4 start this season.  They lost by 13 at home to LA Tech as 9-point favorites, and they only beat Jacksonville State by 4 last time out at home as 7.5-point favorites.  They have only had two days to get ready for Southern Miss. 

This is a Southern Miss team on the rise.  The Golden Eagles are in their best shape since being hit with a three-year probation from former coach Donnie Tyndall’s tenure.  Fifth-year coach Doc Sadler returns a very experienced team, including four senior starting guards from last year.  Tyree Griffin (15.0 PPG, 5.9 APG last year), Cortez Edwards (16.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG), Dominic Magee (11.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and Kevin Holland (6.8 PPG) all returned.  That’s a lot of production. 

The Golden Eagles are off to a 7-2 start this season.  And their two most impressive performances came in their only two true road games.  They won outright 74-64 at SMU as 9.5-point underdogs, and 81-66 at Troy as 1.5-point dogs.  They certainly won’t be losing by double-digits on the road to this rebuilding Wichita State team tonight. 

Wichita State is 5-15 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Southern Miss) - in a game involving two up-tempo teams who average 60 or more shots per game, after two straight games where they allowed their opponents to shoot 37% or less are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with Southern Miss Saturday. 

15* Penn State/NC State ESPNU No-Brainer on NC State -4 

NC State is loaded this season.  The Wolfpack brought back three starters from last year, and then added in some tremendous college-ready transfers in Devon Daniels, C.J. Bryce, Blake Harris, Wyatt Walker and Eric Lockett.  They brought back senior Torin Dorn, sharp-shooter Braxton Beverly and junior Markell Johnson, who led the ACC with 7.3 assists per game last year. 

The Wolfpack are off to an 8-1 start this season with heir only loss coming 75-79 at Wisconsin as 6-point dogs.  They have been undervalued all season as they are 7-2 ATS.  Dorn (16.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 47.8% 3-pointers this season) and Johnson (12.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, 48.6% 3-pointers) are doing their thing, while Bryce (12.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 40% 3-pointers) and Daniels (9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG) are contributing right away as transfers. 

Penn State clearly came into the season overvalued.  The Nittany Lions are just 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS in their nine games this season.  Their five wins have come against North Florida, Jacksonville State, Wright State, VA Tech (at home by 1) and Colgate.  They already have upset losses to DePaul, Bradley and Indiana, and they failed to cover in a loss at Maryland.  This team just isn’t very good. 

Penn State is 2-10 ATS in road games vs. up-tempo teams who average 62 or more shots per game.  The Wolfpack are scoring 88.9 PPG this season, which is 15.9 per game more than their opponents give up on average.  They are also holding teams to 62 PPG, which is 6 points less than their opponents average.  This team is a lot better than they’re getting credit for as only 4-point favorites here, and that will show on the court this afternoon.  Take NC State Saturday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +7 

I love the spot for Rutgers today.  They are coming off three consecutive losses and will be highly motivated for a victory.  Well, an 11-point loss to Michigan State and a 5-point road loss to Wisconsin as 11.5-point dogs aren’t bad losses.  The upset loss at Fordham was, but it was understandable given they stepped out of conference following those losses to MSU and Wisconsin. 

Look for the Scarlet Knights to be refocused and ready to go tonight.  This is a team that got off to a 5-1 start, which includes a 57-54 win at Miami as 11-point dogs.  And their only loss was as dogs to St. John’s up to that point.  So they have been through the gauntlet, playing one of the most difficult schedules in the country to this point.  They won’t be phased at all by this road game at Seton Hall as it will already be their fourth true road game of the season. 

I also love the spot fading Seton Hall.  They are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, an 84-83 win over Kentucky on a neutral last time out.  After beating the Wildcats, who are down this season, they certainly won’t be nearly as motivated to face Rutgers tonight.  This is a Seton Hall team that lost by 23 to Nebraska, was upset by St. Louis at home, and upset by Louisville at home.  Rutgers will have a chance to pull the upset today, too. 

Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  It’s a Pirates team that lost their four best players from last year, and one that is being overvalued now off that win over Kentucky.  The Scarlet Knights are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The road team is 20-6 ATSi n the last 26 meetings.  The Scarlet Knights are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 trips to Seton Hall.  Bet Rutgers Saturday. 

20* LSU/Houston ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Houston -3.5 

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have opened 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS through their first eight games, outscoring the opposition by 17.7 points per game on average.  They play elite defense, giving up just 57.7 points and 37.8% shooting to their opponents. 

And it’s not like Houston is beating up on a bunch of cupcakes, either.  They won 76-62 at BYU as 2-point underdogs.  They beat Oregon 65-61 as 3.5-point home favorites.  And they won 63-53 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point underdogs. 

That Oklahoma State result is important because it pertains to this game.  LSU is 7-2, but one of its losses came to Oklahoma State 77-90 on a neutral despite being 5.5-point favorites.  So that’s the common opponent between these teams, and Houston won by 10 on the road, while LSU lost by 13 on a neutral. 

And LSU has beaten up on a lot of cupcakes as they also lost to Florida State, while their seven wins all came against suspect competition as 8.5-point favorites or more.  In fact, this will be the first true road game of the season for the Tigers, which is always a precarious spot, especially up against a Top 25 team like Houston with a great home-court advantage. 

LSU is 3-12 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Cougars are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Houston is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 games overall.  The Cougars are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Bet Houston Wednesday. 

20* Purdue/Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas +2.5

It’s safe to say the Texas Longhorns will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They opened 5-0 with wins against Arkansas and North Carolina, but not they’ve lost three straight to Michigan State, Redford and VCU.  They want to get back in the win column here tonight in a bad way. 

Purdue is coming off a 62-60 home win as 9-point favorites over Maryland.  Now they step out of conference here.  They only have two days’ rest after playing on Thursday, while Texas has three days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday. 

While Texas has four returning starters, Purdue has just one returning starter and has been grossly overvalued this season.  The Boilermakers also have three losses this year, and they are 0-2 in true road games losing to Michigan and Florida State by an average of 10 points per game. 

The Boilermakers are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  Purdue is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Boilermakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Texas is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games as a home dog of 3 points or less or PK.  Bet Texas Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Grand Canyon +11

Nevada (9-0) is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after its unbeaten start and No. 6 ranking.  Now the Wolf Pack are being asked to lay double-digits in what is essentially a home game for Grand Canyon at Talking Stick Resort in Phoenix. 

Dan Majerle is doing big things at Grand Canyon, and it helps that they have some of the best facilities and weather in the country, which has helped him get recruits.  Grand Canyon is 5-3 this season with all three losses coming by 9 points or less, and they were all on the road to the likes of Utah, Seton Hall and South Dakota State. 

But what I really like about this game is the fact that Grand Canyon is rested with seven days in between games having last played on December 1st.  Nevada just played on Friday, December 7th in a hard-fought 72-66 win over Arizona State in Los Angeles.  So the Wolf Pack only have one day to prepare for Grand Canyon.   

That’s a huge scheduling advantage for the Antelopes here.  The Antelopes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Wolf Pack are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers, and that will show tonight as the Antelopes give them a run for their money.  Take Grand Canyon Sunday.